319 FXUS66 KOTX 091201 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 501 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated fire weather conditions through the weekend. - Breezy winds through the Cascade gaps Thursday and Friday each afternoon and evening. - Breezy winds become more widespread Saturday afternoon with the strongest winds down the Okanogan Valley. - Warming trend early next week. && .SYNOPSIS... Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through the weekend due to low humidity and breezy winds. A broad ridge building over the west-central U.S. early next week will bring warming temperatures across the Inland Northwest. && .DISCUSSION... Thursday through Saturday: The region remains under zonal flow aloft through early Friday. Onshore flow into western WA will tighten the pressure gradient across the Cascades each afternoon and evening as cool marine air banks up against the mountains, resulting in recurring breezy westerly winds through the Cascade gaps. Relative humidity values will drop into the teens daily. Friday afternoon into Saturday, a low pressure system off the British Columbia coast shifts northeastward, placing the Inland Northwest under southwesterly flow and putting the region directly under the jet stream. This will generate more widespread breezy southwest winds. Saturday afternoon and evening, the Okanogan Valley looks like the primary area of concern with sustained winds around 20 mph and gusts of 35-40 mph coinciding with RH values in the low to mid teens. Thus, this area will have to be monitored for critical fire weather conditions. Sunday through Wednesday: A building ridge over the west-central U.S. broadens early next week, bringing a warming trend to the Inland Northwest. While confidence is growing that areas further east under the ridge axis will experience extreme heat under the ridge, temperatures across the Inland Northwest will see a more subtle increase Monday and Tuesday. Uncertainty increases by mid- week regarding the timing of the next Pacific low. A slower arrival would allow the ridge over the west-central U.S. to build further into our region, resulting in hotter temperatures, while a faster arrival would bring temperatures back down. The Climate Prediction Center is banking on a slower arrival, giving Eastern WA and North ID a 60-70 percent chance of seeing above normal temperatures in the 8-14 day outlook. The NBM isn't ready to fully commit to the hotter solution. The NBM maintains a large spread between 25th and 75th percentile temperatures. Spokane, for example, shows 25th percentile highs in the low 80s next Wednesday and Thursday, while the 75th percentile shows highs in the mid 90s. /Fewkes && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFs: VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Breezy winds will persist through the Cascade gaps and down the Okanogan Valley including at KEAT and KOMK. Elsewhere, winds have subsided and will generally be 10kts or less through the period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions regionwide. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 87 57 89 57 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 85 57 88 58 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 83 51 85 53 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 92 60 94 61 93 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 87 55 88 55 86 53 /0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 84 58 87 58 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 82 55 87 57 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 91 57 91 56 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 90 63 89 61 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 92 58 91 57 88 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$  547 FXUS63 KBIS 091206 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 706 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through this evening. - A strong warming trend is expected through the rest of the week, with very hot daily high temperatures around 95 to 105 forecast this weekend through early next week. An Excessive Heat Watch has been issued for Saturday through Monday. - Mainly dry conditions are expected the hot spell. && .UPDATE... Issued at 653 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Scattered thunderstorms have pushed into northwest North Dakota this morning. These storms are producing some stronger winds gusts, with a few gusts of 55 to 60 mph over northeast Montana over the past hour. Currently winds are gusting to around 40 mph over northwest ND. We did issue an SPS for a more vigorous cell in northern McKenzie county recently. In general, think this activity will remain sub-severe as it tracks into the north central this morning, although a marginally severe gust or hail stone (dime sized hail in northeast Montana this past hour) can not be ruled out. As mentioned in the previous discussion, very little certainty as to how this convection may influence storms that may or may not develop later today. For the time being, we spread some chance pops across northwest and into north central ND with the morning update and we will go from there. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A quasi-zonal flow will remain across the forecast area today and tonight. A shortwave trough and associated cold front will provide the potential for strong to severe storms this afternoon and this evening across the forecast area. Building upper height will then dominate through the weekend with an extended period of very hot temperatures and oppressive heat through the weekend and into next week. Currently skies ranged from clear east to mostly cloudy west as cirrus from Montana convection pushes into the state. Temperatures are mainly in the upper 50s to upper 60s early this morning. For today...A shortwave trough tracking through southern Canada will push an attendant cold front into northwest ND by this evening. Meanwhile, convection currently along the associated warm front over eastern Montana will push into North Dakota this morning. CAMS are in disagreement on how this convection will evolve this morning. Some keep convection along the International Border, some extend convection farther south and others bring convection almost to the South Dakota border this morning. There is also a lot of uncertainty in how far east convection spreads as well as the extent of this convection (isolated versus scattered). Forecast soundings indicate elevated instability over the area today. Currently there is some stronger effective shear over western ND with slightly unstable CAPE values pushing into the state from Montana. Through at least mid-morning, it looks like Effective shear will diminish but Cape will slowly increase. As mentioned earlier CAMS are in general disagreement, but most do at least bring some convection into the northwest this morning. How it evolves after this is uncertain. Also uncertain is how this will impact convection later today. In general, once the initial shortwave trough and associated convection moves through during the day, the forcing for ascent later in the day is not great. Medium range models indicate pressure falls in eastern Montana and western ND this morning, strongest early in the morning, then there are little if any pressure falls at all this afternoon, before meager falls this evening tracking through north central to northeast ND. At the surface today, low pressure moves into western ND around midday then slowly pushes east through the afternoon. By mid to late afternoon there is a pre-frontal trough over western ND pushing slowly into central ND and a Cold front that is pushing into northwest ND. A very unstable airmass will be situated over much of western and central ND with MLCAPE values around 3000 J/Kg. Although bulk shear is not great, there is sufficient shear (around 25 to 35 knots) orientated nearly perpendicular across the surface trough from southwest into north central ND. The question becomes, will there be enough forcing for ascent from the surface convergence along the trough and only weak waves moving through the broad upper level flow. If so, there will be the potential for rapidly developing supercells within the very unstable airmass and steepening lapse rates. Large hail to around 2 inches will be possible across central ND, along with winds gusts to 60 mph. Although parameters are not necessarily favorable for a tornado, given the slow moving boundary and supercell potential, a tornado can not be ruled out over central ND. Large hail looks to be the greatest hazard though. With all that said, currently cams do not look all that excited with convection later this afternoon through this evening. A few show convection developing southwest-south central and only a few show some convection developing over central ND. Wondering if this is due to at least in some extent to the CAMS showing convection tracking across the area today, associated with the ongoing Montana convection, thus CAMS are assimilating a slow recovery behind this convection. So a lot may depend on how things evolve this morning and early afternoon. If convection does not track across the area, perhaps there will be a better severe potential later today. Either way, if convection does develop later this afternoon, into the evening, there threat fore severe storms will remain. In addition, there is an approaching cold front. If convection does hold off until this evening, bulk shear increases significantly, and there may be more threat of clusters of storms (moreso north) as the shear vectors are more parallel to the approaching cold front. Will continue to monitor. Once convection ends tonight, attention turns to an extended period of very hot temperatures and oppressive heat indices. We have issued an Extreme Heat Watch beginning midday Saturday and continuing through Monday evening. Sunday still looks to be the day with the highest potential for Heat Impacts, but all three days (Saturday through Monday) will see highs mainly in the mid 90s to around 100 to 105. Hottest temperatures will be in the southwest, but humidity will be higher in the northwest and central. It's possible that southern portions of the forecast area will see another day of hot temperatures and heat related impacts on Tuesday, but the uncertainty increases a bit and the north does cool off a little. Beyond Monday there is a bit of a drop in NBM ensemble high temperatures, but the spread also increases significantly. In the Saturday through Monday timeframe, the NBM ensemble spreads have actually tightened up. This has increased confidence in the potential for an impactful heat wave this weekend into early next week, in addition to the warm overnight lows only dropping to around 70 degrees. Therefore we went ahead with the Excessive Heat Watch. Shower and thunderstorm chances remain minimal through the weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 653 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms spreading from northwest into north central ND this morning. This activity has been producing winds gusting to around 40 mph so far this morning and small hail. Included 40kt winds at KXWA and if the activityhold together, will amend KMOT shortly as well. Currently only have a PROB30 with no wind gusts. After this morning activity, there will be a break until another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms, some severe, later this afternoon through this evening. Any storms would have the potential to produce gusty and erratic winds, with MVFR ceilings/vsbys in heavy downpours. Outside of any thunderstorm activity, expect mainly VFR conditions. Winds variable through the period mainly 15 knots or less. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Monday night for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-023-025- 031>033-035>037-040>044-046>048-050-051-055>062. && $$ UPDATE...TWH DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...TWH  609 FXUS61 KBOX 091208 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 808 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No changes to the forecast for this update cycle. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm with high humidity today and Friday. - Humid with a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. - Dry and seasonably cool for the weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm with high humidity today and Friday. A warming trend begins in earnest today as 925mb temperatures rise to near 20C with the full July sun angle. Highs in the upper 80s to near 90 are likely across most of southern New England by the afternoon. Expecting a very humid day with dewpoints increasing to near or just above 70 (at times) this afternoon. A weak cold front brings a chance for widely scattered showers and an isolated storm or two. Weak forcing from a subtle shortwave should prevent a more widespread threat for strong or severe storms. Best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be across northwest Massachusetts. Any storms that do form will have the potential to produce frequent lightning and heavy rain as PWAT values climb above 1.7 inches. KEY MESSAGE 2... Humid with a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Warm and humid conditions continue Friday although it will likely be few degrees cooler with 925mb temps running about 3-4C cooler than Thursday. Still, dew point temperatures near 70 will keep apparent temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Attention turns to a cold cold front sagging southward from northern New England during the early afternoon in northern MA and reaching the southern CT-RI-MA coastline by early evening. The associated forcing will be greater than Thursday so there will be a greater chance for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity on Friday. Latest guidance still shows significant differences in the magnitude of instability and thus the eventual convective evolution Friday afternoon. The 00z NAM's CAPE values, while somewhat lower than previous, are still around 1500-2500 J/kg due to its high-dewpoint bias. Meanwhile, the GFS's overmixing bias shows considerably lower values at around 500 J/kg or less. The answer is probably somewhere in the middle with the NBM which has 800-1300 J/kg by Friday afternoon. In any case, the primary risks with any thunderstorm looks to be lightning and slow-moving heavy downpours, which could lead to instances of street flooding in areas that see repeated thunderstorms. Latest guidance indicates 700-500 mb heights which become increasingly parallel to the southward- sagging frontal boundary, which adds to the risk for slower- moving storms and also casts some uncertainty when we clear out, with the Canadian guidance suggesting post-frontal light rains lingering into part of Saturday along the South Coast. KEY MESSAGE 3...Dry and seasonably cool for the weekend into early next week. Trending much drier behind Friday's cold front by Saturday with any lingering moisture pulling away from the region Saturday morning. The 500 mb pattern then transitions to one of cyclonic flow/troughing in the mean, which favors cooler temperatures (low to mid 80s) and lower humidity levels than experienced for late in the week. Weekend appears favorable for outdoor plans with nice summer weather. We'll be on the far western periphery of a pretty impressive upper level ridge which latest guidance still shows reaching to nearly 600 dm building over the northern/central Plains and upper Midwest. We still might need to keep an eye on possible storminess pivoting around the ridge but it looks as though the weekend into early next week ends up drier than not. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today...Moderate confidence. VFR. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible after 20Z across the western terminals. Tonight...Moderate confidence. Lowering clouds moving in with areas of MVFR and possibly IFR. Friday...Moderate confidence. MVFR/IFR towards the south coast early. Otherwise, VFR. Risk for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. KBOS Terminal...High confidence. KBDL Terminal...High confidence. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday through Monday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Friday Morning...High confidence. Mostly tranquil conditions today as high pressure builds over the region. A weak front approaches the region later this afternoon into the evening with showers and thunderstorms possible over the southern waters. Another tranquil start to the day Friday with showers and thunderstorms developing by the afternoon. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...FT AVIATION...Belk/FT MARINE...FT  259 FXUS62 KJAX 091217 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 817 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Isolated Afternoon Thunderstorms Today & Friday. Storm coverage increases this weekend and early next week. Locally heavy rainfall possible Sunday through Tuesday. Thursday: Peak Heat Index 105-111 Most Areas. Major Heat Risk through Friday and Saturday - Moderate Rip Current Risk Beaches Today && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights through Tonight: - Heat Advisory Area-Wide Today - Isolated Afternoon and Evening Storms Another hot day ahead today as mid to upper level ridging continues to build. Mostly sunny skies and southwesterly winds will allow high temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 90s, with max heat index values in the 105-111 degree range, prompting a Heat Advisory from 11am-8pm. Convective chances are lower today due to the subsidence and drier air in place, however CAMs continue indicate a window for isolated storms later this afternoon near Marion/Putnam/St. Johns/Flagler counties. Less confidence for another area of isolated convection near the Altamaha river basin towards coastal southeast Georgia. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights During This Period: - Heat Advisory potential for Friday and Saturday - Lower convective chances Friday, but increased chance Saturday Low to mid level ridge over central FL on Friday will nudge further north into Saturday while moisture continues to remain somewhat limited in the 1000-700 mb layer. In fact, there will be pockets PWATs that will be near or below 1.6 inches on Friday. We do see some increase in moisture across northeast FL on Saturday so appears we will see an uptick in rain chances for Saturday, at least for northeast FL. At this time, will show rain chances limited to about 10-20 percent for Friday and 20-55 percent for Saturday, with highest chances over northeast FL, and lowest over interior southeast GA. There is possibility of higher POPs for Friday over inland northeast FL as shown by recent HREF and HRRR guidance. Steering flow through about 500 mb continues to be southwest to south on Friday. However, on Saturday, as the mean layer ridge drifts north, flow transitions to south, even southeast over northeast FL, but still weak southwesterly for southeast GA. The main concern continues to be dangerous heat risk both days. High temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 90s, even at the immediate Atlantic coast as southwesterly winds continue. Max temp may hit century max Afternoon heat indices will approach 102-110 degrees both days, Heat Advisories may be necessary for portions of northeast FL and the southeast GA. A couple of things that throw some uncertainty in the max temp forecast is that we may see more high clouds on Friday, and overall more clouds on Saturday with a better chance of precip. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Main Highlights During This Period: = Sunday through Wednesday - Unsettled weather develops by Sunday Afternoon Onward - Not as hot Monday to Wednesday The low to mid level ridge axis will shift back south Saturday into Sunday while flow turns more westerly and a frontal boundary slowly sags southward over the southeast. Pre-frontal troughing is possible across srn GA on Sunday, with the frontal boundary probably pushing into southeast GA by then or at least by Monday night. More abundant moisture pushes into the area on Sunday and continues Monday and Tuesday while ridging pushes well to the south over southern FL. The front looks ill-defined by Wednesday as preliminary data suggests it will be diffuse over south GA. Unsettled weather each day with rain likely chances (at 55-70 percent) Sunday, maybe up to 60-80 percent Monday. Likely rain chances continues Tuesday and Wednesday. There some concern for locally heavy rainfall, localized flooding Sunday through Tuesday though the recent dry weather should help to minimize some of the impacts. By Sunday, temperatures drop a few degrees area-wide as more storms are expected. Higher cloud coverage and storm chances will lower temperatures back to near normal in the upper 80s to lower 90s Monday to Wednesday. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions continue through period. SW flow develops again today and increase to around 10 kts. The Atlantic sea breeze will be pinned to the coast only causing winds to shift SSE at SSI and SGJ in the afternoon. Showers and storms look to be limited to coastal TAF sites this afternoon into the evening. Have placed VCTS/PROB30 for SGJ but with lower confidence near SSI and CRG, have left VCSH for now. && .MARINE... High pressure ridge will remain anchored across central and south Florida this week as low pressure troughing develops to the north. This pattern will maintain a southwest flow through early afternoon followed by late afternoon and evening wind surges from the south and an increase to Small Craft Exercise Caution wind speeds. The offshore flow will allow for a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorm over the local coastal waters through Friday, with increased chances of thunderstorms Saturday through early next week. Mariners should expect locally strong wind gusts and frequent lightning with any developing thunderstorms. Rip Currents: Low to moderate risk of rip currents continues through the end of the week due to fairly low surf conditions from prevailing offshore flow. Some enhanced potential still looks likely for the northern beaches by late afternoon from Mayport northward due to stronger southeast wind component each day. Surf remains generally in the 1-2 feet range. && .FIRE WEATHER... AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSION NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF I-10 FROM TODAY - Through Saturday - Heat Advisory In Effect Today High pressure ridge will prevailing just south of the area through Saturday. Drier than normal conditions are forecast today through Friday and then rain chances begin to increase Saturday through early next week as a front approaches from the north. Above average temperatures and dangerous maximum afternoon heat index values expected through Saturday. Southwesterly surface winds continue through Friday, with areas of high afternoon dispersion near and north of I-10 expected each day. Despite drier air in place, minRH will remain above critical values. Fog Potential and other remarks: Significant fog potential is not expected through Friday night. Erratic wind gusts possible in and near thunderstorms, and at times, at a distance due to outflows. && .CLIMATE... Summer heat continues. There is potential for some locations to get to the century mark today with probability of this occurrence at about 30 to 40 percent. These probabilities look a bit higher for Friday. For the next few days, here are the record high temperatures that are within 3 degrees of the current forecast: July 9th: KJAX: 101/1879 KGNV: 99/1932 KAMG: 100/1986 KCRG: 101/2016 July 10th: KJAX: 102/1879 KGNV: 99/1914 KAMG: 99/1980 KCRG: 99/2016 July 11th: KGNV: 100/1900 KAMG: 100/1980 KCRG: 99/1998 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 97 76 98 76 / 20 20 10 10 SSI 96 79 97 81 / 20 30 10 10 JAX 98 77 99 78 / 20 10 20 20 SGJ 96 77 96 78 / 30 30 20 10 GNV 97 75 98 75 / 100 30 20 OCF 97 75 97 76 / 20 0 20 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024- 030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232- 233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633. GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149- 151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. MARINE...None. && $$  230 FXUS65 KVEF 091216 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 438 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry conditions and above-normal temperatures will continue through the end of the week. * Monsoonal moisture begins increasing this weekend, resulting in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms early next week. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday. High pressure will be the driving feature of regional weather over the next seven days. The center of the high remains parked over southern California and Arizona, keeping temperatures several degrees above-normal. Las Vegas has a 70 to 80 percent chance of reaching 110 degrees today and Saturday, which would be the first 110-degree day since August 21st, 2025. Hot daytime temperatures combined with warm overnight low temperatures will result in widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) with pockets of Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk for most locations. A combination of dry and breezy conditions also prompt elevated fire weather conditions across much of the region today and tomorrow. The high becomes centered over the Four Corners this weekend, a classic setup for monsoonal moisture advection into the southwestern United States. PWATs in excess of 1 inch spread into areas south and east of Interstate 15 on Sunday, spreading north into the rest of southern Nevada and southeastern California by Monday. Gusty outflow winds and dry lightning appear to be the primary threats for at least the first few days as forecast soundings display inverted-V patterns with moisture aloft and drier air near the surface. Orographic lift will favor storm formation over high terrain. The high stays put through midweek and ensembles show persistent healthy moisture advection. Lower heights aloft, cloud cover, and atmospheric moisture will help reduce temperatures by a few degrees. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Expect a similar wind pattern as the last few days through the afternoon... with a breezy south-southeast wind around 8 kts picking up in the late-morning, with a couple of hours of directional variability between 140 and 230 with occasional gusts around 20 kts as winds veer southwest. Once once winds are solidly southwest, expect gusts around 25 kts. Tonight, though, wind gusts are expected to last later into the evening, with a 60 percent chance of gusts over 20 kts persisting after 03Z and lasting until around 12Z. Temperatures will exceed 100 degrees between 17 and 04Z with a high of 110. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Expect gusty southwest winds between 20 and 25 kts at Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River Valley TAF sites that peak in the afternoon, but linger well into the evening. 60 percent chance of gusts over 20 kts persisting after 03Z until 08 to 12Z. KBIH will stay generally below 10 kts and will favor the north, with a brief shift from the south-southeast before veering west-northwest then northwest for the evening. KDAG will gust from the west through the day with gusts peaking around 30 kts. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Meltzer AVIATION...Soulat For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  993 FXAK68 PAFC 091241 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 441 AM AKDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/ Thursday - Saturday night)... There are two distinct upper-level shortwaves of note on satellite imagery this morning. The first is a weaker trough, situated over interior Southwest Alaska. This feature is producing a few scattered showers as far south as western Kenai Peninsula as it continues to quickly move southward, wrapping around the back edge of a deeper upper-level low exiting the Gulf of Alaska. The second shortwave is the more potent of the two, maintaining strength as it moves east to west along the Alaska Range this morning. Models are finally coming into better agreement with the track of this wave, all trending to the more northward placement of the main area of precipitation. This solution is verifying based on radar returns from the Pedro Dome radar near Fairbanks. Both shortwaves will phase near Cook Inlet later this morning, tracking into the western Gulf late tonight. This evolution and track will likely lead to the steadiest or rain to fall from the northern Copper River Basin west to the Susitna Valley. Although lighter in intensity, rain will also overspread the Matanuska Valley south through the Anchorage Bowl and Cook Inlet region by later this morning. As the trough exits into the Gulf Thursday night, drier air and weak ridging will begin to build into Southcentral. This will lead to decreasing shower coverage and a warming trend on Friday. Afternoon temperatures are expected to climb into the mid to upper 70s for many lower elevation locations, including Homer, Seward, Valdez, Kodiak, and Cordova. Developing northerly flow aloft will also support gusty gap winds through favored terrain, while much of the region experiences warmer and drier conditions for Friday. A weak wave may move over the Copper River Basin on Friday morning leading to another period of showers for the region. Currently, only the Canadian (GEM/RGEM) model is indicating this possibility. As such, any additional precipitation Friday morning is low confidence. By Saturday, the ridge shifts east as another Gulf system approaches. A frontal system will move from the AKPen to the western Gulf with rain for Kodiak Island by early Saturday morning. The front does look a bit slower in its eastward push than in previous model runs, due to a stronger ridge downstream. Nonetheless, showers look to reach the Kenai Peninsula by late Saturday with a few scattered showers farther inland, especially along the western flank of the Talkeetna Mountains, where increased instability may lend to an isolated thunderstorm from east of Talkeetna north to the Denali Highway. as the front approaches, gusty easterly to southeasterly winds will increase along the Gulf Coast and adjacent marine areas. Gusty southeasterly gap winds along Turnagain Arm and the Knik and Copper River Valleys will also be on the increase by Saturday afternoon as a coastal ridge builds out ahead of the front. LM/TM && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday morning)... Showers across the Kuskokwim Valley today will become more confined to the Western Alaska Range by tonight as the Kuskokwim Delta and the Bristol Bay Coast see drier conditions today. Trends with the North Pacific low, compared to yesterday's forecast, have indeed trended farther north, and thus, wetter for mainland Southwest Alaska for Friday and Saturday. First, the low's front lifts to Adak/Atka by late this morning into the early afternoon hours and brings light to moderate rain to the area. Rain then spreads east to Nikolski/Unalaska/Akutan by this evening and tothe southern Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) and Pribilof Islands by early Friday morning. There is the possibility for marine lightning and isolated thunderstorms today beginning across the marine zones around Adak/Atka. Don't be surprised to hear a clap or two of thunder across both Adak and Atka today. The marine lightning threat then moves east to northeast by tonight with the Bering marine zones north of Nikolski potentially seeing isolated thunderstorms. The lightning threat then shifts farther northeast where the coastal waters of the Pribilof Islands for Friday morning and to the outer coastal zone of the Kuskokwim Delta by Friday afternoon. Details are still somewhat murky on the marine lightning potential so stay tuned for forecast updates regarding this in the next package. Regarding the Southwest Mainland forecast, the area remains dry through Friday morning. Steady rain advances northeast to Nunivak Island by early Friday afternoon and to the rest of the Kuskokwim Delta Coast by late Friday afternoon. Then, rain spreads to the Interior Kuskokwim Delta, Bristol Bay, and up the AKPEN Friday night and into Saturday morning. Steady rain moves to the Kuskokwim Valley and Western Alaska Range through the rest of Saturday as the eastern Bering low moves inland. There is some lingering uncertainty as to how long steady rains will last across the Southwestern Mainland on Saturday. The general trend is for steady rain to taper off to showers through Saturday. Steady rain will linger the longest along eastern portions of the Kuskokwim Valley and Western Alaska Range. A shortwave rounding the base of the trough now situated in the Bering on Saturday will help to keep showers somewhat enhanced across the Pribilof Islands and coastal Southwest most of the day Saturday, despite the steady rain moving off to the east. Unsettled conditions conditions continue across Southwest for Sunday as the Bering trough begins to move inland. The Bering and Aleutians also remain unsettled as numerous shortwaves embedded in the mean flow move across the area. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)... Starting off the long term forecast is a continuation of the active pattern in Alaska. A longwave trough with many embedded shortwaves will move over the Alaska Mainland on Sunday. This will bring widespread rainfall to much of the Southwest and Southcentral Alaska Mainlands. Wind speeds will remain relatively light overland, but will be elevated over coastlines and ocean. Meanwhile, ridging builds into the Bering, likely leading to widespread low stratus and fog that extends into the Aleutians and Pribilof Islands. By Monday, some kind of a low or trough will move into the Bering. This will push the ridge eastward and will trigger more active weather into the Bering. The ridge will briefly decrease activity over the Mainland before features move in late Monday into Tuesday. There is much uncertainty with features afterwards, but it is likely that more shortwaves or lows will move into the Mainland of Alaska, bringing widespread rainfall and elevated winds. -JAR && .AVIATION... PANC...Light winds, shifting from the south this morning to the west by afternoon then back to the south tonight, will prevail through the TAF period. A shortwave disturbance moving in from the north could bring periods steady rain into the terminal by mid to late morning. Ceilings will remain mostly VFR, but periods of MVFR or even IFR ceilings are possible in heavier showers. Showers will taper off by around 0Z this afternoon, with VFR conditions persisting thereafter. && $$  146 FXUS63 KOAX 091245 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 745 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A stretch of hot weather is expected this weekend into next week, with highs in the 90s and heat indices approaching 100 degrees. - Most days are looking dry through the next week, though we could see a few spotty showers and storms Friday. Severe weather is not expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1047 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Tonight through Friday... A cluster of thunderstorms have developed along a front draped across northeast Nebraska earlier this evening, supported by a shortwave trough pushing across the northern Plains. Rather limited deep-layer shear (around 20 kts) has kept the initial storm development rather stationary along this boundary. Ample instability (MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg) along with the sufficient shear has brought pockets of strong to severe storms along this cluster. Cold-pool development behind the line will lead to an eventual southward push of this system into the overnight period. As the cold-pool helps force the storms into more of an upscale cluster, isolated pockets of damaging wind gusts (pockets of 60 mph) will be one of the primary hazards over the next few hours, aided by DCAPE of 1000-1200 J/kg. The severe weather potential will gradually decay into the overnight period. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will remain another concern. PWAT values near 1.80-2" (above the 90th percentile of sounding climatology) and warm cloud depths of 4 km have brought efficient rainfall processes, especially when coupled with the longer residence time. Pockets of 3- 4.50 inches of rainfall have been reported, with the highest totals in western Iowa. CAM guidance continues to hint at a few scattered storms redeveloping behind the main cluster overnight, though the severe weather potential will be limited with these storms given the increasing inhibition and decreasing shear. Storms will push southward across the area overnight, clearing much of the forecast area by 7 AM. Can't rule out a few afternoon storms redeveloping along the front in far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, though the better shear and instability should stay just to our south. The lingering cloud cover and slightly cooler air mass will bring afternoon highs in the low to upper 80s. Similar temperatures are expected on Friday with partly cloudy skies. Saturday and Beyond... This weekend into early next week, an amplifying mid- to upper-level ridge is expected to build over the Front Range and gradually expand eastward into the mid-Missouri Valley, leading to a warming trend and relatively dry conditions. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will take a step upward into the upper 80s to mid 90s. By Monday, most locations are expected to reach the 90s a few spots in northeast Nebraska expected to reach the triple digits. Overnight lows will remain in the low 70s. Heat index values are expected to reach the mid 90s to around 105 degrees daily. This hot pattern with minimal precipitation chances will continue into the work week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 538 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Showers and t-storms have all pushed southeast of the area this morning leaving cigs and visibility restrictions as the major threat. Believe VFR conditions will persist at KOMA and KLNK, with 3 hours of MVFR visibility/cigs with some haze/fog there through about 10:00AM. Otherwise expect light northerly winds to become variable this evening. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...Nicolaisen  507 FXAK67 PAJK 091255 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 455 AM AKDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - Most of any minor impacts due to lower ceilings and visibility for aviation will be in the southern Panhandle today near a weakening front moving up from the south. - We continue with Small Craft Advisories offshore of Prince of Wales Island due to 8 ft seas in somewhat stronger southerly winds. - Rain continues across the central and southern panhandle, diminishing later Thursday into Friday. A disturbance coming down from Canada brings more precipitation to the northern panhandle and inner channels Thursday PM into Friday. && .SHORT TERM.../through Saturday morning/...A frontal wave is still sliding northward across the southern and central panhandle Thursday morning, and is expected to stall out after bringing rain as far north as Sitka and Angoon. While overall this feature is not well organized, embedded convection has lead to rain rates as high as 0.25 inches per hour in the Ketchikan area this morning. These rates are expected to gradually diminish through the morning hours, with showers coming to an end by late Thursday night across the southern panhandle as the frontal wave weakens and associated surface low pressure slides eastward. The northern gulf coast and inner channels around Icy Strait managed to find themselves in a dry slot, with cloud cover diminishing through Thursday morning. This will once again allow for some patchy fog development before daytime heating kicks in. This also means the inner channels north of Angoon can expect slightly warmer daytime highs than Wednesday. The far northern gulf and inner channels will remain fairly dry for a good portion of Thursday with satellite imagery clearly denoting dry air aloft. This will be short lived though as a disturbance moves down from Canada Thursday afternoon and evening bringing rain to end the work week. With clearing across Icy Strait, daytime heating could provide a favorable environment for the developing wave moving down from the interior and allow it to sustain itself better as it advances. For the Klondike Highway and Skagway, there is a slight chance Friday afternoon for a thunderstorm to make it across the border as showers develop once more. Elsewhere further convective showers also are expected to develop and last into Friday night, diminishing into Saturday as upper level support wanes and relative high pressure builds over the region. For more on what to expect this weekend into early next week, see the long term discussion below. .LONG TERM.../Saturday through Wednesday/...As the low pressure system from Friday moves southeastward, the chance for a disturbance from British Colombia to bring showers and perhaps some rumbles of thunder will continue for Saturday. A ridge should build in behind the high pressure system, and that should decrease chances for precipitation. By Sunday night into Monday, a low pressure system looks to form in the Gulf of Alaska. Right now, models are still disagreeing on the exact timing and strength of the low, stronger winds (up to 20 kts or 23 mph) in the Gulf and some higher rain chances are expected for Southeast Alaska with the low. As of now, the low pressure system looks to not be very organized, but it is something to monitor. Heading into next week, there will be greater confidence of the timing and impacts of the low, but we look to overall enter a wet pattern. && .AVIATION...12z TAFs Mostly MVFR being observed at most locations across SE Alaska early this morning, with Yakutat, Juneau and Sitka being the outliers with VFR. Most of the rain and lower ceilings to periodic IFR to MVFR being reported across the southern Panhandle closerto the weakening front as it moves north today. Most of the northern half of the Panhandle should see VFR for much of today, with the exception of some morning fog potential in Gustavus (where FAA webcams show shallow fog forming already around the runway). Rains slip in across the north tonight with lowering ceilings expected after 04Z generally. && .MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): On the morning charts we note a weak low pressure area over the central Gulf of Alaska roughly near 53.6N and 144.6W...with an occluding front extending east into Prince of Wales and the southern Panhandle. The main headlines we have out this morning are for Small Craft Advisories (for 8 ft sees in a southerly swell south of the front) for the 15nm-80nm offshore zone off Prince of Wales Island (through tonight). In the Dixon Entrance to Edgecumbe offshore zones from Prince of Wales to southern Baranof we expect southerly winds 15 to 20 kts south of the front today before weakening a bit tonight into Friday. We dropped the Small Craft Advisories north as we do not expected to see more than 7 ft seas in those areas as the low moves southeast through Friday and continues to weaken. Inside (Inner Channels): We are getting a bit of an increase today in southern Clarence Strait with SE winds 15 to 20 kts generally and 5 ft seas along the Dixon Entrance periphery. We expect winds to relax a bit Friday as the low moves southeast. To the north, we will see a bit of a northwesterly wind increase this morning around Point Couverden and Rocky Island, and a bit of a southerly increase by afternoon across central to northern Lynn Canal. Otherwise, a generally lighter wind regime is expected going into the weekend as the weak low over the eastern Gulf moves southeast and weakens near Haida Gwaii. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661. && $$ SHORT TERM...Jones LONG TERM...Musall AVIATION...Garmon MARINE...Garmon Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau