776 FXAK69 PAFG 091300 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 500 AM AKDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Hot conditons will persist in the Northern Interior, and particularly in the Yukon Flats where temperatures will have potential to reach the mid 80s through Saturday. Conditions will be cooler and wetter in the Tanana and Kuskokwim Valleys as a band of rain continues west across the Southern Interior Thursday morning. Thunderstorm coverage shifts eastward from the Central Interior on Thursday toward the Eastern Interior for the weekend. Widespread rain will arrive for the western regions on Saturday. && .KEY WEATHER MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... - Highs in the 70s and 80s are expected in the northern Interior, with a heat advisory in effect for the Yukon Flats where temperatures will reach around 85F. Temperatures will be cool in the southern Interior Thursday before warming into the 70s Friday. - Rain is expected in the southern Interior Thursday morning. Around a quarter of an inch is expected along the north side of The Alaska Range before rain disperses this afternoon. - Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from the White Mountains to Tanana northward and northern Fortymile Country and along the AlCan Border on Thursday and Friday. - Southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range will strengthen Saturday afternoon. Wind gusts up to 40 mph through Isabel and Windy Pass are possible by Saturday evening. West Coast and Western Interior... - Rainfall along the northern slopes of the Western AK Range and in the Upper Kuskokwim Valley could produce additional totals of around a quarter of an inch through Thursday Morning. - Temperatures cool slightly with highs in the lower 70s in Interior valleys today. Along the coast, highs will be in the 50s/60s. - Stronger southwesterly/westerly winds with gusts up to 20 mph will be possible throughout the western Interior Valleys through Thursday night. Winds lull Friday before strengthening again Saturday. - Fog and low stratus have moved in from the Bering along portions of the West Coast and will linger through the latter half of the week. North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Warm temperatures persist through Thursday. Highs warm into the 50s near Utqiagvik to the low 80s in the Arctic Plains. A heat advisory is in effect for the Arctic Plains for Thursday. Max temperatures on the North Slope will be closer to 70 on Friday and Saturday, and into the 60s on Sunday. - Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the Central Brooks Range and Arctic Plains on Thursday. On Friday, the eastern Brooks Range will see scattered thunderstorms. - Widespread rain will reach the Western Brooks Range from the south on Saturday and may continue into the Western North Slope on Sunday. && .FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION... The upper-level pattern consists of a weak ridge over the north and west portions of Alaska, and a 547 decameter low moving quickly from west to east across the Gulf of Alaska. There is troughing through the Western Bering, which will play an important role in delivering widespread rain to western Alaska on Saturday. Presently, there is rain across much of the Southern Interior which will dissipate through Thursday morning as the low in the Gulf moves to the southeast. Up to a quarter inch of additional precipitation is possible in the Kuskokwim and Tanana Valleys as upslope flow against the Alaska Range wrings out the remaining precipitation. Then, Thursday evening, another round of rain looks to wet the upper Tanana Valley again, before the low finally exits the Gulf into British Columbia and warmer, drier weather arrives for the Interior. Thunderstorms will develop in the afternoonunder the weak ridge. On Thursday, the best corridor looks to be from around Tanana to the Central Brooks Range, and north into the Central Arctic Plain. On Friday, coverage shifts east but storms remain isolated in the Interior, developing over the higher terrain in the eastern Interior. The exception will be in the Eastern Brooks Range, where more scattered thunderstorms will develop. By Saturday, thunderstorms are pushed to the eastern Interior along with the weak upper-level high pressure. After the rain subsides in the Southern Interior Thursday, temperatures will be cool, only peaking in the 60s. However, with the ridge sliding east over the Interior on Friday, temperatures will warm back up into the mid 70s. The northern Interior, and especially the Yukon Flats, will not have a break from hotter through Saturday, peaking in the mid 80s each afternoon. Apart from the hotter temperatures in the Yukon Flats and thunderstorms, the weather becomes relatively benign on Friday. Early Saturday morning, the trough over the Bering will make landfall in the YK Delta, managing to pull a bit of tropical moisture north along with it. As a result, there will be widespread rain across the western regions of Alaska. Totals are still somewhat uncertain but recent runs have trended upward, leading to widespread areas of 0.25 inches with pockets up to half an inch. Rain totals will depend on exactly how much moisture the part of the trough in the North Pacific is able to steal away from a ridge in the Pacific. Along with the precipitation out west, the arrival of system will also lead to gusty southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range. Currently wind gusts are peaking around 40 mph, but it could be that as the day gets closer, that it will increase towards 45 or 50 mph. I will be keeping an eye on that. && .FIRE WEATHER... As upper-level ridging builds into the state, thunderstorms continue to be expected throughout the rest of the week for the north-central and northwest Interior along with the central Brooks Range and Arctic Plain on Thursday. Thunderstorm concerns shift eastward for Friday to the eastern Interior and the central and eastern Brooks Range. By Friday afternoon, another low from the Bering begins to approach the state, pushing the ridge eastward and causing high temperatures to rise, especially for the Yukon Flats where Heat Advisories have been issued through the rest of the week. As this low approaches, wetting rains are expected to fall for the West Coast and Western Interior, moderating fire weather concerns for the time being for those areas. Gap winds through the Alaska Range may also increase as the low approaches on Saturday. && .EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Sunday through Wednesday. Ensemble models remain in reasonable agreement for Sunday, with around a 545 dm upper level low centered over St. Lawrence Island, a 555 dm low in the Gulf of Alaska, and a 560 dm ridge of high pressure centered over the Alcan Border. This setup will remain conducive for efficient southwest moisture transport into Northern Alaska, supporting scattered to widespread rain chances across the western two thirds of our CWA, while the ridge of high pressure closer to the Alcan Border and the Yukon Territory work to limit precipitation chances to more isolated. Given more breaks in the clouds farther east, isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances and warmer conditions will be found in the Eastern Interior and Eastern Brooks Range, while cooler and wetter conditions are expected farther west with cloudier and rainier weather in place. As that broad trough over the Bering Sea shifts east for early next week, look for temperatures to stabilize or see a cooling trend across our region as daily precipitation chances persist, keeping around our unsettled weather pattern aroundthrough at least midweek next week. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Heat Advisory for AKZ833. Heat Advisory for AKZ806-808. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-805. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856. && $$ Troyke MacKay - Extended Lewis - Fire Wx  637 FXUS62 KTAE 091314 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 914 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 913 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Rain chances decrease some today and Friday but an increase in convective coverage is expected over the weekend and through early next week. When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors! - Above average temperatures are expected through Saturday. Some localized areas of advisory level heat indices (108 F) are possible into Friday. Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in air- conditioned places, wear light clothing, and know the signs of heat stress and illnesses. && .UPDATE... Issued at 913 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Increased rain chances for much of the area today thanks to a plume of 2"+ PWATs over the Florida Panhandle that's moseying east. Couple that with a weak H5 vort max and rain/storms should be a bit more widespread. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Upper level ridge axis extending west from the Atlantic will remain over the region this afternoon while weak southwesterly flow associated with a broad upper level trough to the northwest keeps some shower and storm chances in play today. The highest rain chances will generally be across the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and into northern counties across central Georgia. Conditions will remain warm this afternoon and above average for this time of year as highs climb into the low to mid 90s. Localized areas of heat indices of 108 to 110 are possible, but given potential for cloud cover, some convection, and the spotty nature of these heat indices, have held off on a heat advisory today. Shower and storm chances quickly drop off this evening with mostly quiet conditions expected overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Friday is likely to be the driest and warmest afternoon of the period before rain chances increase over the weekend and next week in response to a weakening Atlantic Ridge. Additionally, a steadily building ridge across the northern Plains will lead to lowering heights across the region. As PWATs increase to well above 2 inches into early next week, well-above normal rain chances will likely develop. This should help bring relief to recent above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 637 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Prevailing VFR conds expected away from thunderstorms. Convection initially focuses along the coast before spreading inland from SW to NE. Coverage still looks fairly spotty, so PROB30 groups for TSRA are maintained. Highest confidence in thunder invof of terminals attm are ECP this morning and TLH/DHN in the aftn. Inland activity should diminish after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The summertime Atlantic ridge axis will extend west across Central Florida and into the Gulf through today, bringing mostly gentle southwest breezes to the waters. An afternoon and evening sea breeze will further increase nearshore winds each day. The ridge axis will shift north on Friday and Saturday and bringing lighter and more variable winds. Isolated showers/storms are possible in the overnight and morning hours before transitioning inland. A wetter pattern begins to develop over the weekend and into early next week with multiple days of widespread shower and storm activity expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Relatively low fire weather concerns, outside of higher dispersions across southwest Georgia counties, will prevail the next few days. Afternoon humidities will be in the 40 to 50% range. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast each afternoon with coverage decreasing the rest of the week, with only isolated storms possible today and Friday. Winds will be light out of the south and southwest through the period but localized increases across FL due to the seabreeze can be expected most afternoons. Main concerns outside fire weather will be heat indices possibly reaching advisory criteria today and Friday with pockets reaching near 110 F. Rain chances increase markedly Saturday into next week with high probabilities for wetting rains expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Lower than normal rainfall chances appear likely through the end of the work week before coverage increases over the weekend and through early next week. Widespread rainfall amounts around an inch are forecast into the weekend for our Florida counties with localized higher amounts if a slower-moving thunderstorm passes over. Lower totals are forecast to the north. By early next week above-normal rainfall chances will likely lead to higher rainfall totals. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 94 76 96 75 / 40 10 10 0 Panama City 91 81 92 80 / 40 10 10 0 Dothan 95 75 95 74 / 40 20 30 20 Albany 95 76 95 76 / 30 20 20 20 Valdosta 96 75 97 75 / 20 10 10 0 Cross City 96 76 97 76 / 0 0 10 10 Apalachicola 90 80 91 80 / 20 10 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...IG3 MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...Dobbs  890 FXHW60 PHFO 091322 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 322 AM HST Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure far north of the state will continue to produce breezy trades into the weekend. An increase in moisture will bring enhanced showers to windward and mauka locations with limited spillover to leeward areas through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Stagnant upper air pattern between roughly 20N and 30N persists as the islands remain under the influence of a narrow upper ridge axis flanked on either side by cutoff lows. With very little changes expected through the forecast period expect the typical breezy trade weather pattern. A band of showers is moving across the island chain bringing increased showers focused over windward and mauka locations this morning. This band of showers is oriented perpendicular to the island chain and given observed west motion windward Oahu and Kauai look to take the brunt of the heavier showers. The leading edge of a tropical airmass characterized by PWATs around 1.75" is evident on satellite imagery. This airmass will bring dewpoints into the low 70s and maintain the ongoing period of wetter trades into the weekend. Continued breezy trades will help take the edge off of mugginess as higher humidity builds. General signal from the medium range guidance is for increased shower coverage to continue into early next week. && .AVIATION... Moderate to breezy trades will persist across the Hawaiian Islands, bringing in pockets of enhanced low-level showers across predominately windward and mauka areas. Expect VFR conditions to prevail across most locations, with occasional localized MVFR conditions in association with shower activity. AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration above 2500 feet for windward and mauka areas due to clouds and showers. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence over and downwind of terrain for all islands. This AIRMET will likely continue through the next several days. && .MARINE... Strong high pressure centered north of the state continues to drive fresh to strong trade winds across all coastal waters. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended for all Hawaiian waters through Friday afternoon. High-resolution guidance suggests that SCA winds will hover near the advisory threshold across the coastal marine zones through this time frame, with higher winds through the channels and typical windy areas. Very little change is expected to the strength of the high or the pressure gradient across the islands through this weekend, so further extensions to the SCA are anticipated. A small to moderate, medium-period south-southwest (190-200 degrees) swell continues to generate moderate surf below advisory criteria along south facing shores this morning. This swell energy will gradually lower through the remainder of the week. Expect small surf for south facing shores leading into this weekend, with mainly background energy. A small to moderate, long- period southwest swell (220 degrees) is expected to fill in Saturday into early next week, but due to its Tasman source, could be more inconsistent than the current swell. Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the week as fresh to strong trades hold. A series of small, moderate- to long-period west (270 to 280 degrees) swells are expected to arrive this weekend and linger into early next week, sourced from Typhoon Bavi in the far western Pacific. Surf along north-facing shores is expected to remain flat to tiny with no significant swells forecast from the north or northwest. Looking ahead, higher than normal high tides will be possible beginning during the latter half of this weekend. Interests immediatelyalong the coasts in low-lying or vulnerable areas should continue to monitor forecasts for possible coastal flooding due to the King Tides from Sunday through the first half of next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for all Hawaiian waters- && $$ DISCUSSION...Walsh AVIATION...Pierce MARINE...Quesada  895 FXUS63 KBIS 091350 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 850 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through this evening. - A strong warming trend is expected through the rest of the week, with very hot daily high temperatures around 95 to 105 forecast this weekend through early next week. An Excessive Heat Watch has been issued for Saturday through Monday. - Mainly dry conditions are expected through the hot spell. && .UPDATE... Issued at 844 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Morning convection continues to push to the east, but has been taming down a bit and broadening out over the past hour as it passes through northwest and west-central North Dakota. Further east, some additional echos have formed along an outflow boundary over north central North Dakota, pushing into and north of Minot. Expect this to remain weak as it appears to be well ahead of the elevated instability corridor. Would not be surprised to see some additional weak convection forming along the aforementioned easterly/southeasterly moving outflow which is showing up pretty clearly on satellite stretching from near Minot to Dickinson, and off to the southwest. UPDATE Issued at 653 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Scattered thunderstorms have pushed into northwest North Dakota this morning. These storms are producing some stronger winds gusts, with a few gusts of 55 to 60 mph over northeast Montana over the past hour. Currently winds are gusting to around 40 mph over northwest ND. We did issue an SPS for a more vigorous cell in northern McKenzie county recently. In general, think this activity will remain sub-severe as it tracks into the north central this morning, although a marginally severe gust or hail stone (dime sized hail in northeast Montana this past hour) can not be ruled out. As mentioned in the previous discussion, very little certainty as to how this convection may influence storms that may or may not develop later today. For the time being, we spread some chance pops across northwest and into north central ND with the morning update and we will go from there. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A quasi-zonal flow will remain across the forecast area today and tonight. A shortwave trough and associated cold front will provide the potential for strong to severe storms this afternoon and this evening across the forecast area. Building upper height will then dominate through the weekend with an extended period of very hot temperatures and oppressive heat through the weekend and into next week. Currently skies ranged from clear east to mostly cloudy west as cirrus from Montana convection pushes into the state. Temperatures are mainly in the upper 50s to upper 60s early this morning. For today...A shortwave trough tracking through southern Canada will push an attendant cold front into northwest ND by this evening. Meanwhile, convection currently along the associated warm front over eastern Montana will push into North Dakota this morning. CAMS are in disagreement on how this convection will evolve this morning. Some keep convection along the International Border, some extend convection farther south and others bring convection almost to the South Dakota border this morning. There is also a lot of uncertainty in how far east convection spreads as well as the extent of this convection (isolated versus scattered). Forecast soundings indicate elevated instability over the area today. Currently there is some stronger effective shear over western ND with slightly unstable CAPE values pushing into the state from Montana. Through at least mid-morning, it looks like Effective shear will diminish but Cape will slowly increase. As mentioned earlier CAMS are in general disagreement, but most do at least bring some convection into the northwest this morning. How it evolves after this is uncertain. Also uncertain is how this will impact convection later today. In general, once the initial shortwave trough and associated convection moves through during the day, the forcing for ascent later in the day is not great. Medium range models indicate pressure falls in eastern Montana and western ND this morning, strongest early in the morning, then there are little if any pressure falls at all this afternoon, before meager falls this evening tracking through north central to northeast ND. At the surface today, low pressure moves into western ND around midday then slowly pushes east through the afternoon. By mid to late afternoon there is a pre-frontal trough over western ND pushing slowly into central ND and a Cold front that is pushing into northwest ND. A very unstable airmass will be situated over much of western and central ND with MLCAPE values around 3000 J/Kg. Although bulk shear is not great, there is sufficient shear (around 25 to 35 knots) orientated nearly perpendicular across the surface trough from southwest into north central ND. The question becomes, will there be enough forcing for ascent from the surface convergence along the trough and only weak waves moving through the broad upper level flow. If so, there will be the potential for rapidly developing supercells within the very unstable airmass and steepening lapse rates. Large hail to around 2 inches will be possible across central ND, along with winds gusts to 60 mph. Although parameters are not necessarily favorable for a tornado, given the slow moving boundary and supercell potential, a tornado can not be ruled out over central ND. Large hail looks to be the greatest hazard though. With all that said, currently cams do not look all that excited with convection later this afternoon through this evening. A few show convection developing southwest-south central and only a few show some convection developing over central ND. Wondering if this is due to at least in some extent to the CAMS showing convection tracking across the area today, associated with the ongoing Montana convection, thus CAMS are assimilating a slow recovery behind this convection. So a lot may depend on how things evolve this morning and early afternoon. If convection does not track across the area, perhaps there will be a better severe potential later today. Either way, if convection does develop later this afternoon, into the evening, there threat fore severe storms will remain. In addition, there is an approaching cold front. If convection does hold off until this evening, bulk shear increases significantly, and there may be more threat of clusters of storms (moreso north) as the shear vectors are more parallel to the approaching cold front. Will continue to monitor. Once convection ends tonight, attention turns to an extended period of very hot temperatures and oppressive heat indices. We have issued an Extreme Heat Watch beginning midday Saturday and continuing through Monday evening. Sunday still looks to be the day with the highest potential for Heat Impacts, but all three days (Saturday through Monday) will see highs mainly in the mid 90s to around 100 to 105. Hottest temperatures will be in the southwest, but humidity will be higher in the northwest and central. It's possible that southern portions of the forecast area will see another day of hot temperatures and heat related impacts on Tuesday, but the uncertainty increases a bit and the north does cool off a little. Beyond Monday there is a bit of a drop in NBM ensemble high temperatures, but the spread also increases significantly. In the Saturday through Monday timeframe, theNBM ensemble spreads have actually tightened up. This has increased confidence in the potential for an impactful heat wave this weekend into early next week, in addition to the warm overnight lows only dropping to around 70 degrees. Therefore we went ahead with the Excessive Heat Watch. Shower and thunderstorm chances remain minimal through the weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 653 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms spreading from northwest into north central ND this morning. This activity has been producing winds gusting to around 40 mph so far this morning and small hail. Included 40kt winds at KXWA and if the activity hold together, will amend KMOT shortly as well. Currently only have a PROB30 with no wind gusts. After this morning activity, there will be a break until another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms, some severe, later this afternoon through this evening. Any storms would have the potential to produce gusty and erratic winds, with MVFR ceilings/vsbys in heavy downpours. Outside of any thunderstorm activity, expect mainly VFR conditions. Winds variable through the period mainly 15 knots or less. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Monday night for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-023-025- 031>033-035>037-040>044-046>048-050-051-055>062. && $$ UPDATE...JJS/TWH DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...TWH