022 FXUS63 KILX 091412 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 912 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Damaging Wind Threat (This Afternoon - Friday): Scattered afternoon thunderstorms bring a chance of localized 60-mph damaging wind gusts across central and southeast Illinois. - Localized Flash Flooding (Tonight - Weekend): Heavy, torrential downpours bring a chance of localized flash flooding with rainfall totals exceeding 2 inches, centered primarily across southeast Illinois. - Heat Returns (Next Week): There is increasing confidence in a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions that grip the area starting Monday, July 13. && .UPDATE... Issued at 911 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Regional radar mosaic shows an MCV across north central Missouri, on the back side of a diminishing convective complex, generally edging eastward. Morning high-res models generally show this MCV moving into west central Illinois just after midday. This is expected to trigger renewed thunderstorm development around mid afternoon, as surface CAPE's rise to around 1500 J/kg or so. Main focus for activity continues to be in areas near/south of I-72. Latest HRRR soundings continue to show an inverted-V signature, suggesting damaging winds will be the main concern. No change was made in the recent SPC Day1 convective outlook, highlighting a level 2 risk south of a Taylorville to Paris line, and this still seems reasonable for our area. Forecast was recently updated to reflect the latest PoP trends through tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .Synopsis... An active, mesoscale-driven summer pattern is unfolding across the region today, characterized by high convective uncertainty but a conditional threat for both isolated severe weather and localized flash flooding. High-amplitude ridging takes over by early next week, signaling a transition toward a much hotter and drier regime. .Today and Tonight... Early morning observations track a pair of weakening Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) upstream, situated over eastern Iowa and eastern Kansas. Guidance generally agrees that convective- enhanced mid-level shortwaves (MCVs) tied to these systems will shift east-southeastward into the Mid-Mississippi Valley this afternoon, dragging a surface cold front along with them. Short- term models diverge significantly, however, regarding afternoon convective initiation near the decaying MCVs and how far south the surface front will progress. In the capped scenario, depicted by the HRRR and RAP, a stable layer will keep the environment weakly capped through the afternoon, suppressing widespread storms over central Illinois and shifting the primary axis of uncapped instability toward southeast Missouri and southern Illinois (south of Interstate 70) through late afternoon. Conversely, a competing narrative illustrated by the NSSL WRF and ARW offer a more uncapped and moderately unstable environment ahead of the front and beneath the MCV. If this more aggressive camp verifies, 1500-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE will foster more widespread convective coverage across central Illinois. Although deep-layer flow remains modest, modeled soundings reveal low-level inverted-V profiles and substantial dry-air entrainment for precipitation loading. This indicates a localized threat for damaging winds with any robust updrafts that can mature. Ultimately, the verification of these scenarios might depend on morning cloud cover trends over central Illinois; a persistent cirrus shield would greatly limit afternoon thunderstorm development. Regarding the overnight hydro potential, model solutions remain split on the front's evening position, which directly impacts how far north the low-level jet (LLJ) axis will extend overnight. Taking an ensemble approach, the HREF stalls the surface boundary near the Interstate 72 corridor tonight, keeping the core of the LLJ over far southern Illinois while its northern edge brushes Interstate 70. If the HREF solution verifies, the threat for flash flooding will remain confined to far southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. On the other hand, coarser deterministic guidance like the NAM and GFS drives the LLJ core much farther north, aligning it closely with Interstate 70. If these coarser models prove correct, a heightened hydrological threat will emerge for the area, with localized rainfall totals exceeding 2 inches through Friday morning. .Friday through the Weekend... Forecast uncertainty persists through the weekend, heavily driven by the evolution and intensity of upstream nocturnal convection and how it alters the background shortwave energy and front's position over central Illinois on Friday and Saturday. This typical MCV-season setup is notoriously difficult for convective-allowing models (CAMs) to resolve given the weak synoptic forcing. Friday presents a similar challenge to today, with a decaying MCV tracking from Missouri into Illinois by afternoon. Should the boundary layer destabilize optimally, scattered downbursts capable of severe wind gusts will become a concern again. Rain chances beyond Friday depend heavily on the strength of this convective-augmented shortwave. Progressive solutions, such as the ECMWF and its EPS ensemble, suggest a weaker open wave that pushes the front well south, effectively ending rain chances by Friday night. Meanwhile, the GFS and GEFS show a stronger closed wave that cuts off and lingers over southern Illinois, keeping daily shower and storm chances active through the weekend. At this point, both outcomes are equally plausible. Aside from the isolated severe wind risk, localized flash flooding driven by highly efficient warm-rain processes is a notable concern, as precipitable water (PWAT) values are forecast to exceed 2.0 inches (above the 90th percentile for July). Consequently, training and back-building convective cells capable of torrential rainfall rates exceeding 1 inch per hour must be monitored closely along any stalled boundary. .Extended Outlook... Once the stalled boundary dissipates or pushes south by late weekend, long-range model guidance shows excellent agreement on the rapid expansion of a subtropical ridge across the central United States. Medium-range ensembles (GEFS/EPS/GEPS) consistently project an anomalous upper-level high centering over the Central Plains between July 13 and July 16. Sensible weather conditions across central Illinois during this extended timeframe will depend significantly on the exact longitudinal placement of the ridge core. A more western orientation would keep the local area under active northwest flow aloft, opening the door for periodic ridge-riding MCSs that would cap afternoon temperatures through persistent cloud cover and convective debris. Conversely, an eastern orientation shifts the ridge axis further east directly into the Corn Belt, allowing a regime of hot and dry weather to quickly manifest by mid-July. Recent ensemble guidance trends continue to favor this latter, eastward-shifting scenario, indicating an increasing likelihood of building heat and dry conditions heading into the middle of the month. Unlike our last spell of hot weather, dewpoints look to be somewhat suppressed beneath this heat dome, as the Gulf remains closed. The net effect will be hotter ambient temperatures (low to mid 90s), but lower heat index values (around 100F or less). && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 536 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 An approaching anvil will penetrate the regional terminals this morning. Despite the increased high clouds, VFR conditions are forecast to persist through much of the afternoon hours. The brief exception comes between 20z-01z when scattered thunderstorms are a possibility. Confidence remains low enough to maintain the PROB30 mention for TSRA. Storm trends will be monitored and adjustments will be made as necessary. By late tonight, a weak cold front will stall over the region, providing the impetus for low stratus or patchy fog overnight into Friday morning. MVFR to occasionally IFR condtions are forecast late in this TAF cycle. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...MJA UPDATE...Geelhart DISCUSSION...MJA AVIATION...MJA  273 FXUS61 KOKX 091418 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1018 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to forecast. Updated for 12Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm and localized flash flood threat during the afternoon and evening both today and Friday. Increasingly warm and muggy today and Friday, with heat indices peaking in the lower to mid 90s on Friday. 2) Mainly dry conditions for the upcoming weekend with seasonably warm temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Forecast remains on track, with lead area of showers and embedded thunderstorms approaching the NYC/NJ metro between 1 and 2 pm. This activity is relatively weak as it encounters a weakly unstable and weakly sheared environment. Some of the 00z CAM guidance has initialized this activity fairly well, and does intensify this activity as it approaches NE NJ between 17z and 18z in response to building instability and approaching vort train. Primary threat will be for torrential downpours, with an isolated flash flood threat (10 % prob across NE NJ/NYC metro). Secondary threat of a pulse wet microburst (5 %prob across NE NJ/NYC metro). The flash flood and severe threat decreases moving N and E from the NYC/NJ metro. Otherwise, there continues to remain good agreement on Mid- Mississippi River valley closed upper low shearing towards the region later today, with a resultant weak surface low pressure wave tracking across the northern Mid-Atlantic, and lee/pre- frontal surface trough developing and approaching from the west. These features should be able to provide a trigger/focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms across NYC/NJ metro and N&W in a marginally (locally moderate) unstable and weak shear environment. Severe threat should be limited in this environment, but can't rule out an isolated damaging pulse wet microburst threat, especially if the lower atmosphere is able to destabilize more than forecast. Environment is more conducive to an isolated flash flood threat with high PWATs (2-2.25"), a deep warm cloud layer, and potential for briefly back building storms. Higher flash flood threat appears to be across SE PA/S NJ with higher instability and enhanced moisture transport/convergence with the weak surface wave. Still an isolated flash flood risk is signaled for the NYC/NE NJ metro region in the high res- guidance, depicted thru being on the edge of HREF 10% ensemble prob for 3"/3hr, and HiRes ARW and NSSL WRF indicating max NY/NJ metro neighborhood value of 2 1/2 to 3" in 3/hr in WPC URRD. Given the continued signals in the hi-res guidance, will continue to address in HWO. Diminishing severe/flash flood threat in the late evening in wake of trough. On Friday, northern stream shortwave digs into northern New England, with a bit more in the way of mean troughing across the region, while a convectively enhanced shortwave approaches the region Friday aft/eve. At the surface, this will have a stronger cold front approaching the region in the afternoon/evening. Trigger and focus is once again there for another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms Fri aft/eve, with an isolated severe/flash flood threat. A slightly better severe threat on Friday aft/eve with 30-35kt deep layer shear profile to complement marginal to locally moderate instability environment. Damaging wind gusts would be the main threat. Flash flood threat looks a bit lower than Thursday with slightly lower PWATS (mid-level drying in wake of Thursday pre-frontal trough) and quicker anticipated storm movement. Flash flood threat will ultimately be contingent on moisture pooling ahead of cold front, storm coverage, and potential SW to NE training along frontal boundary. Hi-res guidance is hinting at a potential for more widespread convective activity as compared to Thursday. Temperatures will continue to moderate to near seasonable levels today with highs in the middle 80s. Highs could come close to 90 degrees in the NYC metro and NE NJ with most other spots reaching the upper 80s on Friday, with max heat indices reaching the low to mid 90s. .KEY MESSAGE 2... General model agreement in mean upper troughing sliding across the NE US this weekend and offshore on Monday, while at the surface Canadian high pressure builds down from southern Canada thru the weekend and overhead by Monday. This pattern should keep conditions mainly dry through the weekend with temperatures near seasonably warm levels. The general synoptic pattern could persist into early next week with only a slight uptick in temperatures. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR as a weak trough of low pressure approaches the terminals this afternoon. Isolated showers/thunderstorms expected with the best chance being across the NYC terminals this afternoon/evening. Have narrowed the timing from about 19Z - 00Z, but still some uncertainty how early shra/tstms may impact the terminals with some guidance showing as early as 17Z. MVFR or lower possible in any thunderstorm. In addition, TSRA possible again on Friday afternoon, but outside current 30-hr TAF window. Winds will generally be less than 10 kt from the S/SW, increasing to 10-15kts Thursday afternoon, with locally higher gusts in any thunderstorms. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments likely for timing of convection today, especially onset/offset. A few gusts S/SW 15-20kt possible this afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Thursday Night through Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day with brief MVFR to IFR conditions possible. There is also a low chance for MVFR/IFR across the eastern terminals Thursday night. Saturday through Monday: VFR. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions expected today and Fri with modest S/SW flow of 15g20kt. Occasional gusts to 25 kt possible for ocean waters west of Fire Inlet, entrance to NY Harbor, and adjacent southern bays each day with coastal jet development. Seas generally 3 to 4 ft. Sub-SCA conditions likely continue for the weekend into Monday with high pressure building towards and then over the waters. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents persists through Friday, due to a mixture of 1-3 ft S wind wave and lingering 1-3 ft SE/E swells. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NV/MW AVIATION...DBR MARINE...NV/MW  265 FXUS62 KKEY 091418 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1018 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Saharan Air Layer is exiting the Florida Keys this afternoon with slightly better moisture moving back in for the afternoon and evening. - Heat will be the primary weather concern this week. Heat indices may creep towards 110 before the weekend. - Shower coverage is expected to increase at the end of the week while a low in the upper atmosphere tracks westward across the Keys. This will be followed by a stronger Saharan Air Layer for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1018 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The effects of the most recent Saharan Air Layer (SAL) plume was evident this morning with the milky sunrise across the Keys. This plume is on its way out with somewhat better moisture moving in from the Bahamas. This moisture plume is saddled between the exiting SAL plume and a stronger SAL plume that will arrive late Friday. In addition, a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) cell will accompany this moisture surge and should lend a hand in bringing relatively large scale lift as it passes through. This hopefully means that our rain chances will spike tonight through Friday. This would be very beneficial as all of the Florida Keys were placed back into the D1 (Moderate Drought) category this week. Otherwise, we are entering a lull in the winds from last night with generally speeds of around 10 mph across the island chain and 10 to 15 knots at most of our marine platforms. No changes made to the going forecast for the remainder of today. As hinted at above, rain chances will increase tonight along with winds. Expect another period of breezy conditions overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1018 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 East to southeast breezes have slackened to generally gentle to occasionally moderate this morning and will continue through the early afternoon. By the late afternoon, expect breezes to gradually freshen, starting in the Straits of Florida waters first and then spreading northwest through the evening and overnight. Moderate to fresh breezes expected for most if not all of the coastal waters surrounding the Florida Keys tonight. Expect another cycle of lulls and peaks to persist through Friday and Friday night. In addition, increasing moisture later this afternoon will lead to a greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms this evening through Friday afternoon. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1018 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions expected with gentle east to southeast breezes. Will see occasional gusts around 20 knots for the afternoon. This will be followed by a minor surge this evening and overnight with gusts near 25 knots. Lastly, moisture will gradually increase through the forecast period and could see showers and or thunderstorms pop up near the island terminals this afternoon with better coverage overnight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1215 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Quiet weather continues across the Keys this morning. A narrow but healthy surface through lower level Atlantic ridge stretches westward across Central Florida and is driving breezy east to southeasterly flow across the Keys. This flow is holding up temperatures and current readings are in the mid to upper 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. While this evenings sounding indicated a precipitable water not to far from normal at 1.67 inches, there was a robust subsidence inversion based just above 900 mb with a good slug of dry air. This has kept shower activity down to essentially non existent across our forecast area. A cut off upper low is currently creeping its way westward through the central Bahamas andhas produced a weak lower level reflection that is beginning to move across Cuba. While today will remain dry, the weak trough will push through our area beginning tonight. This will wipe out the stable and dry layer holding showers at bay. Expect a slight to low chance for showers and thunderstorms beginning tonight. East to southeasterly breezes will remain moderate to fresh, peaking in the evening and early night hours and lulling slightly during the day. This will continue to drive slightly above normal temperatures with highs near 90, lows in the mid 80s, and dew points holding in the mid to upper 70s. The previously mentioned upper low will contribute to yet another lower level trough heading into the weekend. This will keep at least a low chance for showers and thunderstorms. Thereafter, much drier and more stable lower levels is expected to sweep in. As a result, rain chances will be slight or less from later in the weekend and well into next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 92 83 92 83 / 10 30 40 30 Marathon 90 83 90 83 / 10 30 40 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....LIW/SD/RG Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest  497 FXUS61 KLWX 091426 AAA AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1026 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Slight Risk from the Storm Prediction Center has been expanded westward to include western VA and areas along I-81. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Thunderstorms, some of which may produce damaging winds and heavy rain, are possible through Friday. - 2) Turning cooler this weekend into Monday, with renewed heat by mid-week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Thunderstorms, some of which may produce damaging winds and heavy rain, are possible through Friday. A surface front to the south will surge poleward as a warm front later today. The other key player is a seasonably strong shortwave currently over the OH River Valley down into the Tennessee Valley. This trough is forecast to move toward the Mid-Atlantic states which is accompanied by increasing mid-level winds to around 30 to 35 knots. Ultimately this bolters 0-6 km vertical shear to 30 knots which is plenty sufficient for early/mid July standards. The Storm Prediction Center Slight Risk has been expanded westward to include areas to the west of I-81 likely due to more sunshine this morning. While instability is not off the charts, mixed-layer CAPE values rise to around 1,500 to 2,000 J/kg. The tropical air mass featuring 2 to 2.25 inch precipitable water values will lower lifted condensation levels (LCLs). This ultimately puts a cap on the amount of downdraft CAPE (DCAPE), generally averaging around 600 to 800 J/kg. The 00Z high- resolution model suite indicates convective initation off the higher terrain during the early afternoon hours. High- resolution ensembles depict 40 dbZ paintballs which track toward the I-95 corridor during the late afternoon/early evening hours. Ample vertical shear will aid in decent storm organization, particularly for developing line segments. As usual, damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe hazard, but with frequent lightning and torrential downpours possible in any storm. The primary threat for severe thunderstorms ends by the mid-evening hours as convection pushes out to the Eastern Shore. With only modest DCAPE values on forecast soundings, the forward acceleration of storms via cold pools/gust fronts may not offset a possible flash flood threat. In particular, locations recently hit by recent heavy rainfall along with the more vulnerable I-95 urban areas will see an elevated flood risk. The Weather Prediction Center has placed a Slight Risk across all areas north of I-64. Given a decent signal for heavy rainfall along the I-95 corridor, have opted for a Flood Watch given the threat of flash flooding. This covers the 2 PM through 11 PM timeframe while spanning north-central Maryland down to northern Virginia and points eastward. While convection should be progressive in nature, intense rainfall rates on the order of 2 to 3 inches per hour could aid in some hydrologic response. Will continue to monitor for any necessary westward/southward expansions. Some degree of convective threat likely continues into Friday given ample moisture in the atmosphere. However, a primarily westerly flow often is known to negate the development of more organized thunderstorm activity. Friday does mark the warmest day of the remainder of the week with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Depending on how much rainfall occurs during the previous day, some level of flash flood risk may take place again on Friday afternoon/evening. KEY MESSAGE 2...Turning cooler this weekend into Monday, with renewed heat by mid-week. As an upper ridge builds across the Desert Southwest into the central Rockies, this will lend itself to longwave troughing across far eastern Canada into the northeastern U.S. Weak height falls accompanying this trough will push a cold front through the area on Saturday morning. This boundary sags southward in time as broad high pressure over the Great Lakes and New England approaches from the north. Some lingering showers are possible over the weekend given the close proximity of the frontal zone to the area. Temperatures drop over the weekend with initial post-frontal northwesterlies giving way to easterlies by Sunday. The true drop in humidity levels does not take place until late in the weekend into Monday. This should offer a dry start to the upcoming work week. Eventually above average temperatures return to the picture toward the middle of next week. Building heights across the central U.S. should eventually spread eastward into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Low to mid 90s become more likely as this occurs, but with less humidity than the last bout of excessive heat. Forecast dew points are in the 60s with upper ridging generally limiting convective chances. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As a seasonably strong shortwave moves through this afternoon, the models agree on numerous showers and thunderstorms pushing eastward across the area. Have maintained a TEMPO group in the 3 to 7 PM timeframe, slightly earlier for the western terminals. Restrictions are likely as these storms roll through, some of which could be severe in nature. In the wake of these storms, initial southerly winds turn more southwest to westerly tonight. Low ceilings are again possible, particularly in areas which saw heavier rainfall. Westerly winds on Friday may offset some of the convective threat on Friday. However, some afternoon to evening restrictions will again be possible. A cold front moves through on Saturday which yields a shift to northwesterly winds. These eventually turn more easterly on Sunday into Monday as the boundary slides farther to the south. Despite some weekend shower chances, mainly VFR conditions are expected. && .MARINE... With summertime gradients in place, any potential for Small Craft Advisories appears low through the weekend and into early next week. Any hazardous conditions over the waterways will again be tied to thunderstorms, lightning, and any gust fronts/outflows. Special Marine Warnings may be needed for this afternoon and evening as strong convection pushes eastward to the I-95 metro areas. While westerly winds should offset some of Friday's convective threat, some storms could impact the waters during the core heating hours. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Anomalies are around 1 to 1.25 feet early this morning as winds have shifted over to southerly. This will likely result in near minor flooding of vulnerable shoreline through the end of the week. Annapolis is most likely to reach the minor flood threshold, and a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the early morning high tide. Havre de Grace will also be close. A gradual decline in water levels is expected this weekend. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening for DCZ001. MD...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening for MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-503>508. VA...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening for VAZ053-054-505-506-526-527. WV...None. MARINE...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening for ANZ530. && $$ DISCUSSION...LFR/BRO AVIATION...LFR/BRO MARINE...LFR/BRO  502 FXUS61 KRLX 091426 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1026 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Flood Watch for flash flooding has been issued for much of the forecast area from noon today until 8 AM Sunday morning given expected rounds of showers and storms throughout this period, heavy at times. In addition, a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms has been introduced across the mountains and northern WV lowlands for this afternoon and evening. The hazard today with any stronger storms is damaging winds. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms continue at times through the work week and the weekend, with localized flash flooding remaining possible. 2) Drier weather coming for the beginning of the next work week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the rest of the work week and the weekend as a very moist airmass remains in place, with a lingering frontal boundary and periodic crossing upper waves providing synoptic scale enhancement at times. These upper waves mean that showers and thunderstorms become more likely outside of the favored afternoon and evening hours going forward. Guidance continues to forecast PWATs in the 1.5 to 2.0" range into the weekend, resulting in the potential for localized flash flooding. The biggest threat for flash flooding is expected Friday and Saturday. A Flash Flood Watch may eventually be needed. KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold front will push southward Saturday into Sunday. The front will push south of the area for the beginning of the next work week, allowing for drier weather. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected to cause restrictions today. One round is currently ongoing early this morning, then another round can be expected in the afternoon and evening hours. Wind and clouds Thursday night could prevent fog formation. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms today could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M H M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M L M H H H L H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H L L M M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H M H H H H H AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR conditions associated with showers and thunderstorms remain possible through the weekend. IFR conditions are also possible with fog and/or stratus each night and early morning, especially across valley locations. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>034-039-040-515>526. OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ067-075-076-083>087. KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for VAZ003-004. && $$ DISCUSSION...RPY/GW AVIATION...RPY  000 FXUS61 KAKQ 091438 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1038 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Heat Advisory has been issued for northeast North Carolina for most counties east of the Chowan River. Convective and excessive rainfall outlooks remain similar. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hotter summertime temperatures return today and Friday. Meanwhile, a more progressive upper level pattern develops today and Friday. This will bring a series of upper level disturbances, which will have the potential to trigger strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. There is also a risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding across far northern portions of the area today. 2) Near to slightly below average temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week, with additional chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms Saturday, before trending drier later in the weekend into early next week. 3) Hot temperatures potentially return by mid to late next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 355 AM EDT Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Hotter summertime temperatures return today and Friday. Meanwhile, a more progressive upper level pattern develops today and Friday. This will bring a series of upper level disturbances, which will have the potential to trigger strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. There is also a risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding across far northern portions of the area today. GOES water vapor channels depict the axis of a subtropical ridge centered off the Southeast coast early this morning. Meanwhile, an upper trough is pushing across the Great Lakes, with a secondary wave over the upper Ohio Valley. At the surface high pressure is centered offshore with a weak trough inland. The low-level wind is light and generally out of the S to SE. Warm and humid with temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. Some areas of stratus were observed, which should linger early this morning, before scattering and lifting later this morning. The subtropical ridge re-asserts itself today. 850mb temperatures return to 18-20C today NW-SW across the local area. This will support high temperatures ~90F across the N to the mid 90s SE. Dewpoints across NE NC east of the Chowan River will struggle to drop below the mid 70s during peak heating. Therefore, heat indices potentially reach 105-109F and a Heat Advisory has been issued for Chowan, Perquimans, Pasquotank, Camden, and Currituck Counties (excluding Outer Banks Currituck) from 11AM-7PM. Southside Hampton Roads will see heat indices in the lower 100s, but should largely remain below 105F as a slight SE component to the wind should help temperatures remain in the lower half of the 90s. The mid/upper level flow becomes more progressive today and Friday. The 500mb flow increases to 30-35kt this afternoon ahead of a subtle shortwave trough (the feature currently over the upper Ohio Valley), with similar values Friday ahead of a more potent shortwave trough. With strengthening mid level flow and strong surface heating strong to locally severe tstms are possible each afternoon with the main threat being damaging wind gusts. The best potential for tstms today will primarily be N/NE of I-64 in closer proximity to the stronger ascent. Farther S, convection will likely be suppressed given warmer 850 to 700mb temperatures in closer proximity to the upper ridge. The question on Friday is coverage given more drier downslope flow. Additionally, the 00z/09 HREF and REFS have a decent signal for heavy rain later this afternoon and evening from the Northern Neck to SE MD (and points N). This is where there is a threat of localized flash flooding, with a much less risk farther S. KEY MESSAGE 2...Near to slightly below averagetemperatures are expected this weekend into early next week, with additional chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms Saturday, before trending drier later in the weekend into early next week. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms chances continue through Saturday as a cold front pushes through the area. The main threat will be locally heavy rainfall with rich moisture and PW values 120- 140% of normal. A few stronger tstms are also possible. By the end of the weekend and into next week models hint at a drier pattern as high pressure returns to the area. Seasonally hot and humid Saturday, with high temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s. High temperatures trend down into the 80s Sunday and Monday (with some guidance suggesting lower to mid 80s), before a warming trend commences Tuesday. KEY MESSAGE 3...Hot temperatures potentially return by mid to late next week. Global ensemble guidance depicts an upper ridge building over the upper Midwest by early next week and pivoting into the Mid- Atlantic by mid to late next week. This will allow for a return to hot temperatures will highs potentially well into the 90s by mid to late next week. Ensemble guidance also shows PW values near to slightly below normal, so mainly dry conditions should be favored much of next week. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 700 AM EDT Thursday... An area of stratus was observed inland as of 11z. RIC was IFR, with MVFR cigs near PHF and ORF. An area of showers and a few embedded tstms was moving through central VA, but should be E of RIC prior to 12z, and then gradually dissipate as it lifts toward SBY by 13-15z. Conditions gradually improve later this morning with VFR conditions prevailing after ~15z. There is a chc of showers and tstms later this aftn and evening. The best probability is a RIC and SBY where PROB30 groups continue for late this aftn/early evening. Any tstms could produce some brief strong wind gusts. Any showers/tstms move offshore later this evening with VFR condition prevailing overnight. A light SE wind early this morning will become SSW 5-10kt today inland and SE at the coast, then light out of the SW tonight. Outlook: Chances of aftn/evening showers/tstms by Friday is generally ~30% at RIC and 30-50% at SBY, with 20% or less elsewhere, then 60-70% by Saturday. Trending drier and VFR Sunday into Monday. && .MARINE... As of 1035 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected through the end of the week. - Elevated onshore flow may develop later Sunday into Monday with Small Craft Advisories possible. - There is a moderate risk for rip currents today across the Eastern Shore beaches. The main change to the forecast was to add a moderate risk for rip currents today to the Eastern Shore beaches. Lifeguard reports and cameras showed some rip currents even though nearshore waves were short. Additionally, will note that nuisance to perhaps locally minor coastal flooding is possible across the middle Ches Bay with tonight's high tide. However, currently think conditions are just below Coastal Flood Statement criteria. That being said, will reevaluate the potential need for Coastal Flood Statements later this afternoon. ...Previous Discussion... Benign marine conditions prevail through the forecast period. Winds this morning are out of the S-SE and generally 5-10 kt. A very weak front will cross the waters this evening/early tonight, with a wind shift to the W-SW. The main focus with this feature will instead be the potential for strong to severe storms capable of producing localized pockets of higher winds and waves. The prevailing flow will be out of the S Friday and less than 10 kt, though additional storms are possible. A more substantial front is forecast to drop southward Saturday with northerly sub-SCA winds developing in its wake. There is then an emerging signal for weak low pressure to develop just S of the local waters Monday, beneath a high pressure system to our N. This could lead to a prolonged period of northeasterly onshore flow from later Sunday through at least Monday. At this time, will forecast 15-20 kt w/ gusts to 25 kt for the lower bay and coastal waters. Seas would also build to at least 4-6 ft (3-4 ft waves lower bay) given this wind speed and direction combination. Overall, the current forecast would necessitate Small Craft Advisories, but uncertainty remains at this state so will monitor over the coming days. && .EQUIPMENT... Repairs have been completed in the KAKQ radar and it is currently in service. However, some additional downtime will be needed this morning for some additional maintenance. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ015>017-031- 032. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJZ/HET AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...RMM/SW EQUIPMENT...  582 FXUS61 KOKX 091454 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1054 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm and localized flash flood threat during the afternoon and evening both today and Friday. Increasingly warm and muggy today and Friday, with heat indices peaking in the lower to mid 90s on Friday. 2) Mainly dry conditions for the upcoming weekend with seasonably warm temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Forecast remains on track, with lead area of showers and embedded thunderstorms approaching the NYC/NJ metro between 1 and 2 pm. This activity is relatively weak as it encounters a weakly unstable and weakly sheared environment. Some of the 00z CAM guidance has initialized this activity fairly well, and does intensify this activity as it approaches NE NJ between 17z and 18z in response to building instability and approaching vort train. Primary threat will be for torrential downpours, with an isolated flash flood threat (10 % prob across NE NJ/NYC metro). Secondary threat of a pulse wet microburst (5 %prob across NE NJ/NYC metro). The flash flood and severe threat decreases moving N and E from the NYC/NJ metro. Otherwise, there continues to remain good agreement on Mid- Mississippi River valley closed upper low shearing towards the region later today, with a resultant weak surface low pressure wave tracking across the northern Mid-Atlantic, and lee/pre- frontal surface trough developing and approaching from the west. These features should be able to provide a trigger/focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms across NYC/NJ metro and N&W in a marginally (locally moderate) unstable and weak shear environment. Severe threat should be limited in this environment, but can't rule out an isolated damaging pulse wet microburst threat, especially if the lower atmosphere is able to destabilize more than forecast. Environment is more conducive to an isolated flash flood threat with high PWATs (2-2.25"), a deep warm cloud layer, and potential for briefly back building storms. Higher flash flood threat appears to be across SE PA/S NJ with higher instability and enhanced moisture transport/convergence with the weak surface wave. Still an isolated flash flood risk is signaled for the NYC/NE NJ metro region in the high res- guidance, depicted thru being on the edge of HREF 10% ensemble prob for 3"/3hr, and HiRes ARW and NSSL WRF indicating max NY/NJ metro neighborhood value of 2 1/2 to 3" in 3/hr in WPC URRD. Given the continued signals in the hi-res guidance, will continue to address in HWO. Diminishing severe/flash flood threat in the late evening in wake of trough. On Friday, northern stream shortwave digs into northern New England, with a bit more in the way of mean troughing across the region, while a convectively enhanced shortwave approaches the region Friday aft/eve. At the surface, this will have a stronger cold front approaching the region in the afternoon/evening. Trigger and focus is once again there for another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms Fri aft/eve, with an isolated severe/flash flood threat. A slightly better severe threat on Friday aft/eve with 30-35kt deep layer shear profile to complement marginal to locally moderate instability environment. Damaging wind gusts would be the main threat. Flash flood threat looks a bit lower than Thursday with slightly lower PWATS (mid-level drying in wake of Thursday pre-frontal trough) and quicker anticipated storm movement. Flash flood threat will ultimately be contingent on moisture pooling ahead of cold front, storm coverage, and potential SW to NE training along frontal boundary. Hi-res guidance is hinting at a potential for more widespread convective activity as compared to Thursday. Temperatures will continue to moderate to near seasonable levels today with highs in the middle 80s. Highs could come close to 90 degrees in the NYC metro and NE NJ with most other spots reaching the upper 80s on Friday, with max heat indices reaching the low to mid 90s. .KEY MESSAGE 2... General model agreement in mean upper troughing sliding across the NE US this weekend and offshore on Monday, while at the surface Canadian high pressure builds down from southern Canada thru the weekend and overhead by Monday. This pattern should keep conditions mainly dry through the weekend with temperatures near seasonably warm levels. The general synoptic pattern could persist into early next week with only a slight uptick in temperatures. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mainly VFR as a weak trough of low pressure approaches the terminals this afternoon. A few showers/thunderstorms moving across eastern PA are expected to reach KEWR/KTEB closer to 17z, so adjusted the TEMPO to reflect the latest timing. Also, some MVFR cigs (BKN025-030) are being observed out ahead of it. I have also bumped up the timing from 19z to 18z for KJFK and KLGA for thunder potential. MVFR or lower possible in any thunderstorm. No other changes planed for the afternoon TAFs. Additional TSRA possible again on Friday afternoon, but outside current 30-hr TAF window. Winds will generally be less than 10 kt from the S/SW, increasing to 10-15kts this afternoon, with locally higher gusts in any thunderstorms. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments likely for timing of convection today, especially onset/offset. A few gusts S/SW 15-20kt possible this afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with brief MVFR to IFR conditions possible. Saturday through Monday: VFR. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions expected today and Fri with modest S/SW flow of 15g20kt. Occasional gusts to 25 kt possible for ocean waters west of Fire Inlet, entrance to NY Harbor, and adjacent southern bays each day with coastal jet development. Seas generally 3 to 4 ft. Sub-SCA conditions likely continue for the weekend into Monday with high pressure building towards and then over the waters. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents persists through Friday, due to a mixture of 1-3 ft S wind wave and lingering 1-3 ft SE/E swells. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NV/MW AVIATION...BC MARINE...NV/MW