968 FXUS65 KRIW 091502 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 902 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Less storm activity for this afternoon (10-15% coverage). These will build and push off the Winds by 2-3PM and move east across Fremont/Natrona Counties by 6-7PM with main threats of gusty outflow winds up to 40-50 mph. - Record high temperatures are likely this weekend and possibly early next week with some all time record high temperatures possible. The hottest day will be Sunday. - Very low humidity will bring elevated fire weather Friday into early next week. Critical fire weather is possible in northern Wyoming Sunday afternoon for the northern Bighorn Basin and Cody Foothills. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 151 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 We still have a few light showers in central portions of Wyoming early this morning as we still have a bit of CAPE in the atmosphere. Nothing heavy, and barely any lightning, just a few showers. At this point, any amount of moisture is a good thing. And it looks like it will be another day of convection. There could be some this morning though, especially in portions of Johnson and Natrona County where guidance is showing some CAPE this morning, so we added around a 1 in 5 chance of a shower, it may end up just being virga though. Otherwise, the trend of decreasing coverage of convection continues as precipitable water values continue to drop. Again, the main chance will be East of the Divide with areas to the west largely dry with less than a 1 in 10 chance. For once, we don't have any kind of risk from the Storm Prediction Center. The main threat will be, as it always is this time of year, strong wind gusts. Models soundings continue to show inverted V signatures and with some dew point depressions approaching 50 degrees, wind gusts of 50 mph will be possible with any shower or thunderstorm. This looks like an earlier show with most showers ending after sunset and all over by midnight. Temperatures should be similar to yesterday, quite warm but fairly normal for July. Tomorrow is where we begin to transition from thunderstorms to heat. Drier air will continue to push eastward across the area, dropping precipitable water levels even more. There may be just enough moisture and instability to squeeze out very isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, this would be mainly in Johnson County where a bit more moisture will linger and possibly the mountains with a bit of high elevation heat source. Coverage will be very sparse though, with a capital V and a capital S, less than 5 percent of the area. Temperatures will also begin to rise, approaching 100 in the warm spots like the Bighorn Basin and widespread 90s East of the Divide in the lower elevations. This is hot, but nothing unusually for the middle of July, climatologically the warmest time of the year. Things really change on Saturday. Strong ridging over the desert southwest will begin to build northward, with 500 millibar heights reaching 5970 meters by days end. At the same time, 700 millibar temperatures will rise to as high as 21 celsius. This means a very hot day. Reasoning for today remains the same, most locations below 5200 feet East of the Divide have at least a 1 in 2 chance of high temperatures over 100 degrees, with the warmest spots like from Thermopolis to Greybull in the Bighorn Basin have an almost 100 percent chance. Some record high temperatures are certainly possible on this day. And, with the warm temperatures aloft and much drier air moving in, the chance of convection will be basically zero. But this is only the appetizer, with the main course likely to be on Sunday. This is when the ridge will be centered over Wyoming, with some models giving 500 millibar heights as high as 6000 meters. The 700 millibar temperatures may climb as high as 24 degrees celsius. All this adds up to a very hot day, possibly one we haven't seen in a long time. The NBA ensemble gives a greater than 1 in 2 chance of 100 degrees in all locations below 6000 feet, with an almost 100 percent chance below 5500 feet. And this includes some places that don;t see 100. Rock Springs has around a 3 in 5 chance of over 100, and even Jackson has a 1 in 3 chance. The lower elevations of the Bighorn Basin have at least a 4 out of 5 chance of high temperatures over 105 degrees on this day. And the warmest spots, like Greybull and Basin, have a 1 in 2 chance of reaching 110. This is the most likely day to see all time record highs broken, especially in locations that have a shorter period of record. As for heat highlights, I had mixed thoughts on this. The main reason is the humidity, or more specifically the lack of it. The lower elevations will have widespread single digit relative humidity, with some locations falling as a 3 percent on Sunday. This has an impact on the apparent temperatures, which is what we base heat highlights on. For one, the apparent temperature will be below the actual temperature by 5 or 10 degrees. Also, with the dry air, almost all locations should cool off at least into the 60s at night. The one place I could see an excessive heat watch is the Bighorn Basin, but this would mainly be for Sunday. Heat advisories look more likely at this time, there is still time so we will punt to day shift to take another look. And there is one more concern for Sunday. The NBM ensemble is giving a greater than 1 in 2 chance of wind gusts over 30 mph Sunday afternoon north of a Meeteetse to Worland to Kaycee line. With the extremely dry conditions, we may have to consider Fire Weather Highlights for Sunday afternoon. There should be some slight, and emphasis on slight. cooling on Monday, be probably only by 3 to 5 degrees. One hundred degree high temperatures will still be very widespread across the lower elevations. One this day, there may be just enough moisture to come around the backside of the ridge for isolated storms in the western mountains, but the chance is only around 1 out of 10. Chances of convection then slowly increase each day, starting mainly in western Wyoming on Tuesday and then spreading eastward as the ridge slowly moves eastward and moisture rotates in around the backside of it. Temperatures will cool at first in the west, but likely remain well above normal through the forecast period. Very hot temperatures continue Tuesday before some cooling moves in for midweek East of the Divide. But even with some cooling, temperatures should remain well above normal through most of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 429 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Mid-level cloud decks will be around until around 16Z. In vicinity of CPR very light showers will be possible this morning . These could lead to some wind gusts from varying directions this morning. In the afternoon, most convection should be concentrated in central Wyoming. With that we have maintained the PROB30 groups at KRIW, KLND and KWRL for mid and late afternoon. We also added a PROB30 group to KCPR give the latest model trends. Most locations have at least a small chance of a shower or thunderstorm, but with chances less than 15 percent there is not enough confidence to include in the TAFs. Wind will increase this afternoon, with some gusts to 12 to 20 knots possible at all TAF sites after 18Z. Any shower or thunderstorm could have wind gusts over 35 to 40 knots. Most convection should end shortly after sunset. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Hattings  564 FXUS63 KLSX 091540 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 1040 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail and a few brief tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible with these storms through tonight. - Another round of severe thunderstorms is possible on Friday afternoon and evening, and locally heavy rainfall will also be possible with these storms. - Generally dry weather is expected Sunday into next week with warmer than average temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 1036 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain remain the primary forecast concerns today and Friday. An MCS over northeast Kansas looks like it's spinning up an MCV at this time. Short range guidance moves this MCV east through the day at varying speeds. The RAP may be the slowest, only pushing the vortmax as far as the Mississippi River by 00Z. Various CAMs, the GFS and short range ensembles such as the HREF and REFS move the wave more quickly eastward, crossing the Mississippi river into Illinois around 18Z today. The timing and track of the MCV will be part of what determines convective trends this afternoon. The faster solution would limit afternoon convection mainly to areas along and east of I- 44 in Missouri and along and south of I-70 in Illinois. However the slower solution puts the entire area under threat of thunderstorms this afternoon. Since the model consensus is faster, am leaning in that direction with highest PoPs over east central and southeast Missouri into southern Illinois. Kept low chance PoPs over most of the remainder of the area keeping the slower RAP in mind. Models are showing 3000+ J/Kg CAPE with 30-35kts of deep layer shear which is good enough for storms to become organized into severe multicell clusters or even a severe MCS. Primary threat remains damaging winds in excess of 50kts. Boundary interactions along with a bit of extra directional shear associated with the MCV may be enough for a brief tornado as well. Additionally, there's enough CAPE in the hail-growth zone to support hail up to around 1 inch in diameter. The severe threat should diminish with weakening instability during the evening. The low level jet increases to 30-40kts tonight which will produce moderate to strong moisture convergence along any low level boundary laid down by earlier convection. This should result in more thunderstorms tonight, though precisely where the storms will develop will depend on where the low level boundary settles. Some guidance keeps it farther north closer to the I-70 corridor, while others are more across the Ozarks. Regardless, the low level jet veers overnight which should make the storms progressive along the boundary, but there will probably be more than one wave of thunderstorms that track along it. There is therefore a locally heavy rain threat, though widespread flooding doesn't look likely at this time as flash flood guidance is pretty universally well in excess of 2"/hr. Convective trends for Friday and Friday night are very dependent upon where the effective boundary ends up Friday morning, and on another convectively enhanced wave moving across Missouri into Illinois. There's a question of how unstable the atmosphere will get Friday afternoon into Friday evening depending on where the effective surface boundary is. However, severe wind gusts and hail will be possible again. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1036 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Models vary in how strong the aforementioned convectively enhanced short wave is as it moves from Missouri into Illinois late Friday night into Saturday morning. Some solutions show a strong wave which develops a closed low at the surface that drives a composite weak cold front and lingering convective boundary through Missouri Saturday morning. This would dry out the low levels and likely end the chance for thunderstorms. Others are weaker and allow the boundary to linger over the area through Saturday which would keep a chance for precip going longer. There's no particular reason to favor either solution at this point as it will depend on convective trends upstream over the Great Plains. Guidance continues to show a strong upper level ridge developing over the western U.S. late Saturday into Sunday which spreads east across the Plains and Midwest by early next week. Models continue to show some differences in the speed with which it builds east, and the ultimate strength of the ridge. However, the consensus continues to put the thermal ridge north of our area across the Upper Midwest. The NBM temperature forecast therefore looks pretty good with dry and warm, but not excessively warm weather next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1036 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A weakening area of showers and thunderstorms is moving into central Missouri. Expect this convection to continue to weaken as it moves east for the next 2-3 hours until it largely dissipates. The disturbance in the atmosphere caused by these storms will continue moving east through the day, and more storms are expected to develop around it during the afternoon, most likely over southern Illinois into east central and southeast Missouri. More storms are possible during the evening as another disturbance moves into the region from the west. The strongest storms will be capable of producing wind gusts in excess of 50kts, 1 inch hail, and IFR flight conditions in heavy rain. Storms may linger across southeast Missouri through the overnight hours, though confidence in thunderstorm trends is low at this time. VFR conditions are expected outside of thunderstorms. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch from 4 PM CDT this afternoon through Saturday morning for MOZ072>075-084-085-099. IL...Flood Watch from 4 PM CDT this afternoon through Saturday morning for ILZ079. && $$ SHORT TERM...Carney LONG TERM...Carney AVIATION...Carney  606 FXUS64 KHUN 091541 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1041 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1041 CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Mainly low to medium (20-50%) for showers and thunderstorms are expect today, with better chances (up to 60-80%) on Saturday and Sunday afternoons. - A low chance of strong to severe storms are forecast across the area Friday and Saturday. Gusty to damaging winds are the main threat, along with heavy downpours and frequent lightning. - Humid conditions persist with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon with heat index values around 100 through Saturday. Lower heat index values are expected early next week. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1041 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 An upper level trough over the Ohio Valley will flatten as we go into the afternoon, with a zonal flow returning for the upper coming weekend. Isolated showers and thunderstorms that were over far NE Alabama and adjacent middle Tennessee have moved NE out of the area. Other isolated to scattered convection was reforming over NE Alabama. And other isolated to scattered convection over northern Mississippi was approaching our area. Otherwise with clear to party cloudy skies across the Tennessee Valley, area temperatures were climbing into the lower 80s with SW winds of 5-10 mph. Given the convection to our west and more daytime heating, am thinking that this should at least maintain themselves as they move across the area. The models overall were having issues regarding placement and timing of when convection will occur. Shower activity should trend on a diurnal basis, becoming more numerous in the afternoon and early evening (when the highest instability is realized. With daytime heating and surface based CAPE values rising from 1500-2000 J/kg, and precipitable water of 1.7" to 1.9", some of the storms this afternoon could become strong, with gusty outflow wind gusts and torrential downpours. Electrically active storms with frequent lightning is also likely. Otherwise, expect another very warm and humid day across the Valley. High temperatures later today should rise into upper 80s to around 90, with corresponding heat indexes from the mid 90s to 101 degrees. Convection should taper off, but not entirely go away as we go into the evening. Another muggy night can be expected, as lows fall into the lower 70s. Light winds of around 5 mph maybe sufficient to temper more than patchy late night fog development. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 1041 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A generally zonal pattern should be in place for the end of the week. A series of upper systems in the westerlies will move across the area into Saturday. One of these systems is forecast to move in a WNE-ESE manner across the area during Friday. This next system should bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area. Given the system moving mainly across our northern areas, a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) risk for severe weather is forecast, with the greater probability of storms in the afternoon to early evening. Strong to damaging wind gusts is the main threat. Heavy downpours and frequent lightning will also accompany the stronger storms. Before storms arrive, expect another very warm day with highs ranging from the upper 80s and lower 90s, and lows Friday night in the lower 70s. Heat index values from the mid 90s to 103 are expected. More upper level systems are set to impact the area on Saturday. These WNE upper flow driven upper disturbances will in part help to bring another round of strong to severe thunderstorms across the area. These storms should cover more of the area with a risk of strong to damaging wind gusts. A Marginal Risk for severe weather covers all of the Tennessee Valley on Saturday. Timing on when these storms occur is uncertain, with a variety of solutions shown by the deterministic models. With more clouds and higher rain chances a tad cooler on Saturday with highs from the mid 80s to around 90, and heat indexes from the mid 90s to 101. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 We will remain in a humid, tropical airmass through Saturday as zonal flow aloft is challenged by broad upper troughing over the northeast Atlantic. An increase in PVE with the warm humid airmass in place ahead will result in medium to high (70-90%) chances for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday peaking during diurnal heating hours of the afternoon. With PWAT values between 1.8-2", localized flooding could occur across areas that see multiple rounds of heavy rain. As high pressure expands across the Great Lakes, a frontal boundary will shift southward on Sunday and should bring at least a temporary relief from the humidity. Temperatures behind this feature will top out in the mid to upper 80s from Sunday through at least Tuesday, with cooler overnight lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s. The good news is that this will keep the HeatRisk in the Minor (level 1) category which highlights the risk for heat related illness in those who are extremely sensitive to heat and those without cooling/hydration, but will not be as dangerous overall compared to what we have experienced lately. Low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist through the remainder of the long term forecast but will primarily be diurnally driven with a very low risk for any severe storms. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 653 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Isolated shower/thunderstorm activity was approaching N/AL from the west. This activity should overspread the area during the course of the morning, and fade as we go into the late morning. More convection should develop in the late morning and this afternoon. Have maintained a PROB30 for the afternoon to early evening as they impact KMSL and KHSV terminals. Erratic gusty winds and frequent lightning can be expected. CIG/VSBY values should fall into MVFR with the heavier showers, with brief IFR (VSBY <3SM, CIGs <1000' AGL) reductions or lower. Conditions should improve this evening. Late night fog could develop in areas that receive wetting rainfall; confidence is too low to add it to the TAF this issuance. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM....RSB LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...RSB  692 FXUS61 KAKQ 091544 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1144 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Heat Advisory has been issued for northeast North Carolina for most counties east of the Chowan River. Convective and excessive rainfall outlooks remain similar. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hotter summertime temperatures return today and Friday. Meanwhile, a more progressive upper level pattern develops today and Friday. This will bring a series of upper level disturbances, which will have the potential to trigger strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. There is also a risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding across far northern portions of the area today. 2) Near to slightly below average temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week, with additional chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms Saturday, before trending drier later in the weekend into early next week. 3) Hot temperatures potentially return by mid to late next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 355 AM EDT Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Hotter summertime temperatures return today and Friday. Meanwhile, a more progressive upper level pattern develops today and Friday. This will bring a series of upper level disturbances, which will have the potential to trigger strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. There is also a risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding across far northern portions of the area today. GOES water vapor channels depict the axis of a subtropical ridge centered off the Southeast coast early this morning. Meanwhile, an upper trough is pushing across the Great Lakes, with a secondary wave over the upper Ohio Valley. At the surface high pressure is centered offshore with a weak trough inland. The low-level wind is light and generally out of the S to SE. Warm and humid with temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. Some areas of stratus were observed, which should linger early this morning, before scattering and lifting later this morning. The subtropical ridge re-asserts itself today. 850mb temperatures return to 18-20C today NW-SW across the local area. This will support high temperatures ~90F across the N to the mid 90s SE. Dewpoints across NE NC east of the Chowan River will struggle to drop below the mid 70s during peak heating. Therefore, heat indices potentially reach 105-109F and a Heat Advisory has been issued for Chowan, Perquimans, Pasquotank, Camden, and Currituck Counties (excluding Outer Banks Currituck) from 11AM-7PM. Southside Hampton Roads will see heat indices in the lower 100s, but should largely remain below 105F as a slight SE component to the wind should help temperatures remain in the lower half of the 90s. The mid/upper level flow becomes more progressive today and Friday. The 500mb flow increases to 30-35kt this afternoon ahead of a subtle shortwave trough (the feature currently over the upper Ohio Valley), with similar values Friday ahead of a more potent shortwave trough. With strengthening mid level flow and strong surface heating strong to locally severe tstms are possible each afternoon with the main threat being damaging wind gusts. The best potential for tstms today will primarily be N/NE of I-64 in closer proximity to the stronger ascent. Farther S, convection will likely be suppressed given warmer 850 to 700mb temperatures in closer proximity to the upper ridge. The question on Friday is coverage given more drier downslope flow. Additionally, the 00z/09 HREF and REFS have a decent signal for heavy rain later this afternoon and evening from the Northern Neck to SE MD (and points N). This is where there is a threat of localized flash flooding, with a much less risk farther S. KEY MESSAGE 2...Near to slightly below averagetemperatures are expected this weekend into early next week, with additional chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms Saturday, before trending drier later in the weekend into early next week. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms chances continue through Saturday as a cold front pushes through the area. The main threat will be locally heavy rainfall with rich moisture and PW values 120- 140% of normal. A few stronger tstms are also possible. By the end of the weekend and into next week models hint at a drier pattern as high pressure returns to the area. Seasonally hot and humid Saturday, with high temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s. High temperatures trend down into the 80s Sunday and Monday (with some guidance suggesting lower to mid 80s), before a warming trend commences Tuesday. KEY MESSAGE 3...Hot temperatures potentially return by mid to late next week. Global ensemble guidance depicts an upper ridge building over the upper Midwest by early next week and pivoting into the Mid- Atlantic by mid to late next week. This will allow for a return to hot temperatures will highs potentially well into the 90s by mid to late next week. Ensemble guidance also shows PW values near to slightly below normal, so mainly dry conditions should be favored much of next week. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 700 AM EDT Thursday... An area of stratus was observed inland as of 11z. RIC was IFR, with MVFR cigs near PHF and ORF. An area of showers and a few embedded tstms was moving through central VA, but should be E of RIC prior to 12z, and then gradually dissipate as it lifts toward SBY by 13-15z. Conditions gradually improve later this morning with VFR conditions prevailing after ~15z. There is a chc of showers and tstms later this aftn and evening. The best probability is a RIC and SBY where PROB30 groups continue for late this aftn/early evening. Any tstms could produce some brief strong wind gusts. Any showers/tstms move offshore later this evening with VFR condition prevailing overnight. A light SE wind early this morning will become SSW 5-10kt today inland and SE at the coast, then light out of the SW tonight. Outlook: Chances of aftn/evening showers/tstms by Friday is generally ~30% at RIC and 30-50% at SBY, with 20% or less elsewhere, then 60-70% by Saturday. Trending drier and VFR Sunday into Monday. && .MARINE... As of 1145 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected through the end of the week. - Elevated onshore flow may develop later Sunday into Monday with Small Craft Advisories possible. - There is a moderate risk for rip currents today across all area beaches. The main change to the forecast was to expand the moderate risk for rip currents today across all area beaches after coordination with neighboring offices. Lifeguard reports and cameras showed some rip currents across the Eastern Shore and Outer Banks even though nearshore waves were short. Previous Discussion... Benign marine conditions prevail through the forecast period. Winds this morning are out of the S-SE and generally 5-10 kt. A very weak front will cross the waters this evening/early tonight, with a wind shift to the W-SW. The main focus with this feature will instead be the potential for strong to severe storms capable of producing localized pockets of higher winds and waves. The prevailing flow will be out of the S Friday and less than 10 kt, though additional storms are possible. A more substantial front is forecast to drop southward Saturday with northerly sub-SCA winds developing in its wake. There is then an emerging signal for weak low pressure to develop just S of the local waters Monday, beneath a high pressure system to our N. This could lead to a prolonged period of northeasterly onshore flow from later Sunday through at least Monday. At this time, will forecast 15-20 kt w/ gusts to 25 kt for the lower bay and coastal waters. Seas would also build to at least 4-6 ft (3-4 ft waves lower bay) given this wind speed and direction combination. Overall, the current forecast would necessitate Small Craft Advisories, but uncertainty remains at this state so will monitor over the coming days. Additionally, will note that nuisance to perhaps locally minor coastal flooding is possible across the middle Ches Bay with tonight's high tide. However, currently think conditions are just below Coastal Flood Statement criteria. That being said, will reevaluate the potential need for Coastal Flood Statements later this afternoon. && .EQUIPMENT... Repairs have been completed in the KAKQ radar and it is currently in service. However, some additional downtime will be needed this morning for some additional maintenance. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ015>017-031- 032. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJZ/HET AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...RMM/SW EQUIPMENT...