329 FXUS65 KTWC 091601 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 900 AM MST Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today and Friday, with the potential for an increase in storm coverage over the weekend. Hot temperatures again today, lowering over the weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION...No real changes to the forecast again today. The two main weather impacts continue to be the hot temperatures/Extreme Heat and thunderstorm chances. High temperatures will top out 4-7 degrees above normal and the Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect until 8 pm MST this evening. For more information on this product, please refer to PHXNPWTWC. Blended total precipitable water satellite imagery shows PW values ranging from 0.80" in the White Mountains to 1.25" along the International Border. The CAMS show the extent of the convective activity today will be a little further east than yesterday, or roughly east of a Safford to Tucson to Nogales line. The Sky Island Mountains and White Mountains will be the first to initiate between 1130 am and 1230 pm, working into the lower deserts in the mid/late afternoon through the evening hours. Steering flow today will be northeast to east at 10-15 knots. The main threats today will be gusty outflow winds to 45+ mph, blowing dust along Interstate 10 in Cochise County, as well as brief localized heavy rainfall with the strongest storms. SPC has the eastern half of the forecast area under marginal risk for severe wind gusts, with the highest threat of wind gusts to 50+ knots SE/S of Tucson. WPC also has a portion of our area in Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall, mainly the western portion of Cochise County, Santa Cruz County and the eastern half of Pima County. The current forecast is on track. No planned updates to the grids/text products. For more information on the latter periods of the forecast, please refer to PREV DISCUSSION section below. && .AVIATION...Valid through 10/18Z. Generally clear skies/SKC conditions becoming FEW-SCT (locally BKN) at 8k-11k ft AGL aft 09/18z with ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA mainly east of a KE77 to KTUS to KOLS line. There is the potential for outflow winds up to 45 kts between 09/21Z and 10/03Z. Clouds and storms diminishing after 10/04z. Outside of any thunderstorm outflows, SFC wind less than 12 kts, favoring a WLY/NWLY direction during the afternoon/early evening hours and variable in direction at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Above normal high temperatures (4-7 degrees) today, with highs lowering to around normal over the upcoming weekend. Gusty northwest winds of 15-20 mph and gusts to around 30 mph in the Gila River Valley Friday afternoon Friday afternoon/early evening. Min RH values in the lower elevations in the 13-20 percent range through Friday, increasing 5-10 percent by late in the weekend into early next week. Outside of any thunderstorm outflow winds, 20-foot winds will generally be less than 15 mph into early next week except for the Gila River Valley on Friday. There will be a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon/evening hours through Friday. Increasing thunderstorm chances and coverage are expected over the weekend into early next week. && .PREV DISCUSSION...//ISSUED AT 322 AM MST// Satellite imagery this morning showed debris clouds over across eastern half of forecast area, which will slowly diminish through sunrise. Satellite derived PWATs were between 1" and 1.40". Last nights upper air plots placed the monsoon high west of nrn Baja with SE AZ on eastern flank of this high. For today, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with main threats being strong gusty outflow winds, blowing dust and localized flash flooding. HREF has 10%+ neighborhood probability (25 miles) of 50 kts for areas mainly E and S/SW of Tucson. SPC has most of the eastern half of the forecast area under marginal risk for severe wind gusts. Some of the stronger cells will also be capable of localized heavy rain with rain rates up to 1"/hr leading to localized flash flooding. The main areas of concern for this will be Santa Cruz county and SW Cochise county. WPC has this area under marginal risk for flash flooding. Of interest tonight will be how active will Sonora MX get and will the thunderstorm outflows be strong enough when hitting the GlfofCA to initiate a gulf surge. Friday: The monsoon high will lift into western Arizona keeping the area on the eastern flank of the high. Storms, some severe, will mostly be E and S of Tucson with HREF having 10-30% neighborhood probabilities (25 miles) of 50 kts. Localized heavy rain and flash flooding will be also concern. This weekend: With the monsoon high lifting into the northern Rockies/Plains a more favorable monsoon flow pattern sets up resulting in an increase in PWATs (1.2"-1.6") and flash flooding/severe thunderstorm risks. WPC has our area painted for Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall Outlook this weekend. Monday through Wednesday: Favorable monsoon flow will continue daily chances of showers and thunderstorms with flash flooding and severe thunderstorms a daily risk. Temperatures: One more day of the Extreme Heat Warning then temperatures gradually cool to near normal-ish Sunday into next week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ501- 502-504>506-509. && $$ Zell Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson  900 FXUS63 KAPX 091611 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1211 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms continue through the day today. Locally heavy rain the main concern. - Warming trend this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1213 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Rainfall has been a little lackluster Wednesday night, despite the abundant moisture. The night is still young though with upstream activity beginning to increase in coverage to some extent. Nevertheless, expect an uptick in activity this morning and through the afternoon, driven by a frontal boundary sagging south, increasing daytime instability, and a passing trough axis. With anomalous column moisture in place and respectable instability (especially south of M-32), thunderstorms have the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall. Any better-organized storms that train over the same or sensitive areas could produce localized flooding. Best potential today appears to focus south of M-32, where the better forcing and instability will reside. Deep-layer shear values remain relatively tame, and largely skinny CAPE profiles should limit the severe weather potential, though a robust storm or two is not out of the question due to the increasing heights aloft (>6km) and precipitation loading. Activity will wane this evening and overnight as the axis of anomalous moisture drifts south with the advancing frontal boundary. A quiet Friday is expected, with temperatures near or a few degrees below seasonal averages behind this boundary. A piece of energy or two riding the northwest flow—on the outer periphery of a building and eastward-migrating upper-level high—will swing through northern Michigan this weekend with little impact. The region will enter a warming trend, however, as heights steadily rise. Surface high pressure will build (or attempt to build) northeastward into Minnesota, bringing anomalously high heights aloft over northern Michigan. Consequently, temperatures will continue to rise early next week, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Precipitation chances during this period will remain low, as long as the high pressure dominates the region. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1211 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Mix of VFR (CIU) and MVFR / IFR (currently only MBL is IFR) across the TAF sites for the moment as a front producing showers and thunder passes through the region (currently draped right across northern lower). Anticipating shower (all sites) and thunder (mainly APN) potential to carry through the next 3-5 hours, with a quick improvement to VFR in the wake of the front's passage this afternoon into the evening. Perhaps some redeveloping BR / FG tonight in the wake of this rain, but otherwise, anticipating VFR to prevail through the night. Light WSW winds turn N tonight, likely going calm overnight. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JLD AVIATION...HAD  173 FXUS63 KJKL 091615 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1215 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms at times into the weekend. - Heavy rainfall is possible through the first half of this weekend, especially Friday and Saturday, with a threat of isolated to scattered flash flooding. - A Flood Watch is in effect for increased flash flood potential across the area from this afternoon through early Sunday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1215 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026 Refreshed the T/Td/sky grids with the latest observational data from around the region. Also regenerated SAFs to remove fog wording from this morning, otherwise, forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 715 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026 No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids and a tweaking of the PoPs through noon. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 445 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026 08Z sfc analysis shows a weak boundary laid out just northwest of the JKl CWA and this is prompting the continued threat of showers and thunderstorms through this convective minimum into dawn. In fact, showers and thunderstorms are blossoming just northwest of our area of responsibility with additional lighter and scattered activity found over far eastern Kentucky. It is this activity, and the clouds associated with it, that is likely keeping the dense fog from becoming too widespread or extensive and generally more fleeting than that the past several nights. What is the same, though, is the high moisture content in the boundary layer with both temperatures and dewpoints nearly the same at each observation point - in the upper 60s and lower 70s - amid light and variable winds. The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are only in broad agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast as they all handle a key Central Plains shortwave slightly differently as it works east toward the Bluegrass State through the start of the weekend. The upper pattern starts with one mid level impulse moving through eastern Kentucky this morning along with some minor 5h height falls. This feature exits to the east this evening while fairly fast northwesterly mid-level flow remains in place into Friday. The next substantive wave up in this pattern is that ill modeled one over the Central Plains that ECMWF barely indicates while the GFS and NAM (slowest) are more distinctive with it. The weakness of this feature in the ECMWF allows more of its energy to work into Kentucky early on Friday while the other models keep it more contained and arriving later in the day. Either way, this pattern locally will support unsettled conditions through this part of the state well into the weekend. Despite the questionable agreement among the the finer fatuity's in the models through 00Z Saturday, the NBM was still used as the starting point for the grids as little difference in sensible weather can be expected from these model discrepancies. Did make some minor adjustment to PoPs by adding in the consensus guidance for convective timing and coverage from the latest CAM run's consensus. These results were again smoothed and fitted to a diurnal curve - though with more influence from mid and upper level dynamics - probably extending the convection deeper into the night. Sensible weather features typical wet summertime conditions stuck on repeat as conditions will be near normal for afternoon temperatures and humid with scattered to numerous afternoon/ evening convection expected. The influence of waves at mid-level working into or near the JKL CWA - particularly this afternoon and beyond - will enhance the heavy rain threat and small potential for severe storms - mainly south and west of the area. Slow storm motions and high PWS (at times over 2 inches) in place means a heightened concern for localized flooding - especially for places that see training cells - cumulative into the weekend with isolated to scattered high water issues anticipated. For this reason a Flood Watch for flash flooding is in effect from this afternoon through Sunday morning. Temperatures will be moderated by the high moisture content suppressing highs in the afternoon and making for mild lows at night. The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to include more high resolution CAMs details (smoothed) into the PoPs and thunder potential grids through Friday evening. High moisture content to the air meant there were little opportunity to improve temps and dewpoints from the NBM through the weekend. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 500 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026 The main change to the grids for the first part of the extended forecast this morning was primarily to adjust spot specific Max and Min temps at several points though the area. Faster flow at mid levels and general troughing over the Ohio Valley will continue into the weekend and likely support an enhanced threat for heavy rain and localized flooding - particularly Friday and Saturday - becoming more of a risk with time. The previous long term discussion follows: At the onset of the extended, two shortwaves will be in close proximity of one another, the first over southern Indiana and Western Kentucky, the other being just west over the South Dakota/Nebraska area. In addition to these two features, split flow remains over Western CONUS, with a trough off the coast of British Columbia, and a ridge of high pressure over Southern California. Through Saturday, the two shortwaves phase into a more defined positively tilted trough across the Ohio Valley, while high pressure builds across the Plains. For sensible weather across Eastern Kentucky, showers and thunderstorm will be possible Friday through Monday, with a cold front moving through the area during the day Sunday. While shower and storms chances remain Monday, they will be more isolated to scattered compared to the numerous showers and thunderstorms that are expected Friday and Saturday. ECMWF Mean PWATs, continue to show model output falling around the 90th percentile of climatological normals from Friday through the Saturday with PWATs ranging from 1.90-2.10 inches. Showers and storms will have the potential for torrential rainfall. If an area sees repeated rounds of these storms, isolated instances of flash flooding could occur each of the days listed above. The WPC continues to have the area in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall both Friday and Saturday, and a Marginal Risk on Sunday. By Monday, A strong 600-dm high is modeled over the Upper Midwest and Central Plains, with the eastern portions of it infringing on the area. Showers and storms will still be possible, with existing scattered chances looking greatest across southern potions of the CWA. A departing area of low pressure is expected to be along the KY/TN border leading to theses lingering chances. The long forgotten trough off the British Columbia coast back on Friday will have navigated around the amplified ridge of high pressure into the upper Great Lakes area by Tuesday morning. This will flatten the high some, allowing for higher heights over Eastern Kentucky. While this usually equates to much warmer temperatures, model 850-mb temperatures remain suppressed. Temperatures through the extended generally remain in the low to mid 80s through Monday, becoming mid to upper 80s Tuesdayand Wednesday. In the evenings temperatures generally cool into the upper 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026 The worst of the fog and low clouds are confined to just a couple of TAF terminals at 12Z issuance time. Then, uncertainty abounds during the day concerning timing of showers/thunderstorms. It's likely that most places will be affected at some point. However, there is so much uncertainty regarding exact timing that it has been handled with PROB30 groups in the afternoon and evening with poor conditions via low VIS and CIGs. Outside of any storm, winds will be light and variable through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...GINNICK SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...GINNICK/GREIF AVIATION...GREIF  550 FXUS66 KSEW 091626 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 926 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Weak high pressure aloft will lead to seasonal temperatures and dry conditions across Western Washington today. A weak front will bring increasing clouds and cooler temperatures to the region Friday into Saturday along with a chance for a little rain. High pressure will strengthen once again for warmer and dry conditions Sunday through Tuesday. Cooler conditions return by the middle of next week as onshore flow increases. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Areas of stratus are dissipating this morning, with mostly sunny conditions expected this afternoon along with a few high clouds. No major forecast updates, previous discussion below. Mostly high level clouds are drifting across the area this morning in zonal flow aloft while onshore flow near the surface begins to ease. With less in the way of low cloud coverage this morning, high temperatures across interior areas will see a little boost. Onshore flow ramps up once again late today ahead of a weak front that will reach the area Friday afternoon into Friday night. As with most fronts this time of year, the best precip chances will be restricted to the Olympic Peninsula and North Interior, but it's not out of the question to see a few sprinkles reach Seattle metro...just don't hold your breath on that. We will, however, see cooler temperatures and plenty of cloud cover that will linger into Saturday as a trailing upper trough comes onshore before lifting northeastward into British Columbia. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...For Sunday through Tuesday, we'll be on the northwest periphery of a monster upper ridge building over the Rockies and Northern Great Plains. This will give us a mini warming trend with temperatures peaking in the lower (or mid) 80s in the warmest spots on Monday. Ensembles maintain anomalous upper troughing along the British Columbia coast into the middle of next week, but there's some disparity with regard to it's depth. We're quickly approaching the climatologically driest and warmest portion of the year in Western Washington. Most troughs approaching from the northwest by mid-July do little more than initiate increasing onshore flow to cool us down. Given that, a good day 7 forecast leans toward near climo temps and dry conditions. 27 && .AVIATION...Onshore flow continues this afternoon with a mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings across the area. More rapid clearing is expected this afternoon with VFR conditions for most TAF sites by 17-19z. A stronger marine push is expected tonight into Friday morning with an 80% chance of at least MVFR cigs developing along the coast by 06-08z Fri and a 40-60% chance of widespread MVFR cigs pushing inland to Seattle by daybreak Friday. Winds have settled overnight except for gusts up to 20-25 kts along the Strait of Juan De Fuca, impacting KCLM through Thursday. Elsewhere, winds remain lighter, generally less than 8 kts. KSEA...MVFR ceilings this morning. Ceilings are expected to lift above 5000 ft by 17-19z with a scattered to broken high cloud deck lingering. There are better chances (40-60%) for widespread MVFR cigs to return by 12-15z Fri. Winds will be light through the period, from the southwest through Thursday morning, becoming west to northwest in the afternoon. && .MARINE...Surface high pressure over the coastal and offshore waters will remain in place today before weakening on Friday as a weak surface low shifts southward toward to just west of north Vancouver Island. An associated weak frontal system will cross the waters Friday afternoon into Friday night with little impact. High pressure rebuilds over the coastal waters Sundayinto Monday. Diurnally driven increases in westerlies can be expected in the Strait of Juan de Fuca each the next several days. 27 && .FIRE WEATHER...The current onshore pattern will continue through the weekend which will lead to continued excellent nightly RH recoveries. A ridge of high pressure briefly rebuilds into the region early next week. While the onshore pattern will largely remain in place, warmer daytime temperatures and clear skies will likely lead to RH values dipping into the 30s and 20s, with the lowest values in the south interior and Cascades. This will allow fine fuels to continue to dry with elevated fire weather conditions. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT Friday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca- East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$  550 FXUS66 KSEW 091626 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 926 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Weak high pressure aloft will lead to seasonal temperatures and dry conditions across Western Washington today. A weak front will bring increasing clouds and cooler temperatures to the region Friday into Saturday along with a chance for a little rain. High pressure will strengthen once again for warmer and dry conditions Sunday through Tuesday. Cooler conditions return by the middle of next week as onshore flow increases. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Areas of stratus are dissipating this morning, with mostly sunny conditions expected this afternoon along with a few high clouds. No major forecast updates, previous discussion below. Mostly high level clouds are drifting across the area this morning in zonal flow aloft while onshore flow near the surface begins to ease. With less in the way of low cloud coverage this morning, high temperatures across interior areas will see a little boost. Onshore flow ramps up once again late today ahead of a weak front that will reach the area Friday afternoon into Friday night. As with most fronts this time of year, the best precip chances will be restricted to the Olympic Peninsula and North Interior, but it's not out of the question to see a few sprinkles reach Seattle metro...just don't hold your breath on that. We will, however, see cooler temperatures and plenty of cloud cover that will linger into Saturday as a trailing upper trough comes onshore before lifting northeastward into British Columbia. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...For Sunday through Tuesday, we'll be on the northwest periphery of a monster upper ridge building over the Rockies and Northern Great Plains. This will give us a mini warming trend with temperatures peaking in the lower (or mid) 80s in the warmest spots on Monday. Ensembles maintain anomalous upper troughing along the British Columbia coast into the middle of next week, but there's some disparity with regard to it's depth. We're quickly approaching the climatologically driest and warmest portion of the year in Western Washington. Most troughs approaching from the northwest by mid-July do little more than initiate increasing onshore flow to cool us down. Given that, a good day 7 forecast leans toward near climo temps and dry conditions. 27 && .AVIATION...Onshore flow continues this afternoon with a mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings across the area. More rapid clearing is expected this afternoon with VFR conditions for most TAF sites by 17-19z. A stronger marine push is expected tonight into Friday morning with an 80% chance of at least MVFR cigs developing along the coast by 06-08z Fri and a 40-60% chance of widespread MVFR cigs pushing inland to Seattle by daybreak Friday. Winds have settled overnight except for gusts up to 20-25 kts along the Strait of Juan De Fuca, impacting KCLM through Thursday. Elsewhere, winds remain lighter, generally less than 8 kts. KSEA...MVFR ceilings this morning. Ceilings are expected to lift above 5000 ft by 17-19z with a scattered to broken high cloud deck lingering. There are better chances (40-60%) for widespread MVFR cigs to return by 12-15z Fri. Winds will be light through the period, from the southwest through Thursday morning, becoming west to northwest in the afternoon. && .MARINE...Surface high pressure over the coastal and offshore waters will remain in place today before weakening on Friday as a weak surface low shifts southward toward to just west of north Vancouver Island. An associated weak frontal system will cross the waters Friday afternoon into Friday night with little impact. High pressure rebuilds over the coastal waters Sundayinto Monday. Diurnally driven increases in westerlies can be expected in the Strait of Juan de Fuca each the next several days. 27 && .FIRE WEATHER...The current onshore pattern will continue through the weekend which will lead to continued excellent nightly RH recoveries. A ridge of high pressure briefly rebuilds into the region early next week. While the onshore pattern will largely remain in place, warmer daytime temperatures and clear skies will likely lead to RH values dipping into the 30s and 20s, with the lowest values in the south interior and Cascades. This will allow fine fuels to continue to dry with elevated fire weather conditions. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT Friday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca- East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$  939 FXUS64 KOHX 091639 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1139 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1139 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire CWA from 1 PM Thursday to 6 PM Sunday. Remember to Turn Around, Don't Drown if you encounter flooded roadways. - A marginal risk for severe weather (level 1/5) exists for Middle Tennessee through Sunday. Primary hazard is damaging winds, but this is secondary to flooding potential. - Drier conditions expected next week, with continuing diurnal showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1139 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 An MCS around St. Louis is making its way SE this afternoon, with plentiful outflow boundaries and diurnal cu visible on satellite imagery. Still expecting today to get into the mid 80s to low 90s. WAA will continue for the area through Saturday aloft, but the temperatures will have to contend with the precipitation. Despite this, we will still have heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s both Thursday and Friday. SPC has placed the area in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for today and Friday. Main hazard from this is damaging winds for the afternoon today, however, as we shift into the overnight hours our threat will shift as well. As a shortwave trough interacts with an increasing 700mb LLJ in Middle Tennessee, moisture in the atmosphere will increase as well, providing a prime opportunity for flash flooding overnight. The flood watch across our area remains in effect through the weekend to account for other rain chances, but tonight will be a decent threat given how the ground responded with this morning's thunderstorms. Into Friday afternoon and evening, things will shift to more isolated to scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms, but these will also pose a flooding risk with torrential rain expected in stronger thunderstorms. Marginal is the best word to describe our severe risk, as shear remains in the barely double digits which is far below what is necessary for sustained storms but CAPE is high across the region. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1139 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Into the weekend, as various rain chances continue to careen through Middle Tennessee, chances for flash flooding will be on the rise. Remember to Turn Around, Don't Drown if you encounter any flooded areas. NEVER attempt to drive through them, as you don't know how deep the water truly is! We could also see some isolated severe storms through Sunday, as we are in a Marginal (level 1 out of 5) outlook for severe weather from SPC through the weekend. Similar setups to what's going on in the short term, with the addition of some remnant outflow boundaries from previous storms. Hazards right now look to be mainly gusty winds and heavy rain, resulting in flash flooding. Into next week, things look warmer, yet drier. I don't mean fewer rain chances, I mean less humidity. Walking outdoors will no longer feel like walking through a swimming pool, with heat indices forecasted to be close to air temperature through mid-week next week. Unfortunately, it does appear as rain chances will continue as diurnal showers and thunderstorms are pervasive in the forecast. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 559 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms south of I-40 will continue this morning, with additional showers and thunderstorms over the plateau this afternoon. Thunderstorms will approach the northwest part of the area after 5z. MVFR/IFR in any showers and thunderstorms. Light southerly winds under 5 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 91 73 90 74 / 40 50 70 80 Clarksville 91 74 89 73 / 20 60 70 70 Crossville 83 68 83 68 / 60 30 80 90 Columbia 90 73 90 73 / 30 30 60 70 Cookeville 85 70 85 70 / 50 40 90 80 Jamestown 84 68 83 68 / 50 40 90 100 Lawrenceburg 88 72 88 72 / 40 30 60 70 Murfreesboro 91 73 90 73 / 50 40 70 70 Waverly 90 73 89 73 / 30 50 60 70 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TNZ005>011-023>034- 056>066-075-077>080-093>095. && $$ SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Mueller/Seider  942 FXUS65 KVEF 091639 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 940 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry conditions and above-normal temperatures will continue through the end of the week. * Monsoonal moisture begins increasing this weekend, resulting in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms early next week. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday. High pressure will be the driving feature of regional weather over the next seven days. The center of the high remains parked over southern California and Arizona, keeping temperatures several degrees above-normal. Las Vegas has a 70 to 80 percent chance of reaching 110 degrees today and Saturday, which would be the first 110-degree day since August 21st, 2025. Hot daytime temperatures combined with warm overnight low temperatures will result in widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) with pockets of Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk for most locations. A combination of dry and breezy conditions also prompt elevated fire weather conditions across much of the region today and tomorrow. The high becomes centered over the Four Corners this weekend, a classic setup for monsoonal moisture advection into the southwestern United States. PWATs in excess of 1 inch spread into areas south and east of Interstate 15 on Sunday, spreading north into the rest of southern Nevada and southeastern California by Monday. Gusty outflow winds and dry lightning appear to be the primary threats for at least the first few days as forecast soundings display inverted-V patterns with moisture aloft and drier air near the surface. Orographic lift will favor storm formation over high terrain. The high stays put through midweek and ensembles show persistent healthy moisture advection. Lower heights aloft, cloud cover, and atmospheric moisture will help reduce temperatures by a few degrees. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package... Winds will gradually become southeast to south for a few hours this morning with speeds generally around 8-10 knots. An occasional gust to around 15 knots will be possible at times. After 20Z, expect a more solid southwest wind which will likely last through much of the overnight period. Speeds 10-15 knots will gusts to around 25 knots are expected. Temperatures will exceed 100 degrees between 17Z and 04Z with a high of 110. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Expect gusty southwest winds between 20 and 25 kts at Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River Valley TAF sites that peak this afternoon, but linger well into the evening. 60 percent chance of gusts over 20 kts persisting after 03Z until 08 to 12Z. KBIH will stay generally below 10 kts and will favor the north, with a brief shift from the south-southeast before veering west-northwest then northwest for the evening. KDAG will gust from the west through the day with gusts peaking around 30 kts. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Meltzer AVIATION...Gorelow/Soulat For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  278 FXUS66 KHNX 091650 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 950 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Lake Wind Advisory for San Luis Reservoir and Lake Isabella through 11 PM PDT Friday, July 10. Beware of unsettled waters. 2. Slow but steady warmup this week, with widespread Moderate Heat Risk by the weekend and isolated areas of Major Heat Risk. 3. Hot, dry, and windy conditions will create elevated fire risk today and tomorrow, particularly in eastern Kern and Tulare Counties. 4. Increased chance for Sierra Nevada thunderstorms late this weekend into next week with monsoonal moisture pushing into our region. 5. Practice safety around lakes, rivers, and streams, as water is still running cold. && .DISCUSSION... Lake Wind Advisory for San Luis Reservoir and Lake Isabella through 11 PM PDT Friday, July 10. Sustained winds 15 to 20 mph and gusts as high as 35 mph will create hazardous conditions for small craft and high-profile vehicles. Zonal flow prevails at the moment as a high pressure sits just west of the Four Corners region, bringing the area dry and warm conditions, with high temperatures a bit above normal. The high pressure will continue to retrograde westward over the next day or two, bringing further increased temperatures. High temperatures in the Valley today will be in the upper 90s and low 100 and near 100 to 105 tomorrow. Desert highs will be 105-115 today, holding at similar values tomorrow. As the high moves westward, winds will increase in the desert. Maximum wind gusts will be 20-25 mph in the Valley today and 15-20 mph Thursday. In eastern Kern and Tulare Counties, maximum wind gusts will be 40-55 mph today, decreasing to 35-45 mph tomorrow. These winds will be hazardous to drivers in the area, particularly those in high-profile vehicles. Relative humidity will also decrease as the high moves westward. Minimum relative humidities will be 12-20% in the Valley today and tomorrow. In the desert, minimum relative humidities will be 6-10% today, decreasing to 4-8% tomorrow. The distinct combination of above-average temperatures, windy conditions, and dry air will create concerning fire conditions in eastern Kern and Tulare Counties Thursday and Friday. As we move into the weekend, the high will migrate northeastward. This will alter overall flow to a southeasterly direction, bringing a surge of monsoon moisture to the region. As this happens, lightning chances will increase along the Sierra Crest and into the desert, with a 5-10% probability of lightning Sunday, increasing to 10-30% on Monday and continuing similarly for several days. Despite the surge of moisture, there will also be a dry lightning risk associated with some storms. As the heat continues, be sure to take appropriate precautions and check in on and make arrangements for vulnerable people and animals. Brachycephalic (short-nose) breeds will have particular difficulties with the heat and should be kept indoors. If driving or boating in an area with a Wind Advisory, take appropriate precautions. Water temperatures are still in the upper 60s and low 70s and much colder near water flowing from higher elevations. Exercise cold water safety at all times. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Rising temperatures into this weekend will create drier conditions across the region, with minimum relative humidity values at 12 to 20 percent across the San Joaquin Valley and between 5 and 10 percent for the Sierra Nevada and Kern County Desert Thursday. A gradual improvement will occur over the following days, but largely remain within 5 percent of Thursday's minimums. Stronger wind gusts approaching 40mph in the Mojave Desert Slopes will cause elevated fire weather conditions when combined with the low RH values. In the late weekend, an influx of monsoonal moisture will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Sierra Nevada, with chances currently sitting at 20 to 30 percent each day beginning late Sunday. Outside of the mountain areas, temperatures will remain above 100 degrees as flow tracks into the region from the southeast. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for CAZ300-332. && $$ public...AC aviation....AC weather.gov/hanford  366 FXUS61 KCTP 091653 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1253 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... *Flood Watch expanded across the southern tier of central PA && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Locally significant flash flooding possible across portions of south central PA this afternoon and evening 2) Unsettled weather continues into the first half of the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Locally significant flash flooding possible across portions of south central PA this afternoon and evening Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in coverage this afternoon across southern PA. Rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr are likely at times, leading to 2-4" of rain with locally higher amounts possible. Synoptic ascent associated with shortwave lifting E/NE out of KY is working in tandem with RRQ of a modest jet streak aloft robust thermodynamics reflected by PWs measured via the 12Z soundings that are near previous daily records (2.17" at IAD) and a ribbon of MLCAPE already reaching 1000+ J/kg (2000 J/kg within clearing sky conditions). MRMS hourly rainfall have been above 1 inch in some areas, indicative of the impressive heavy rain environment in place. Earlier this morning, rainfall rates of ~1.5"/hr where achieved via ground truth report from broadcast media partner - so rates >2" should be easily attainable given the time of day and copious amount of moisture available. WPC excessive rainfall outlook continues to favor a "high-end" level 2/4 flash flood risk over the southern tier of central PA where locally significant/urban flash flooding is possible. KEY MESSAGE 2: Unsettled weather continues into the first half of the weekend. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday ahead of a cold front that will slowly cross the region into Saturday. Isolated flash flooding will be the primary concern as the environment will still be supportive of very heavy rainfall. A few showers remain possible on Saturday across the southern half of the area as the cold front will be very slow to move to our south. Sunday looks like a much drier day as the front finally moves off to the south and a strong ridge develops over the middle of the country. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR flying across south central PA may be interrupted and restricted by showers and thunderstorms through 00Z Fri. Storms will be capable of torrential rainfall likely resulting in IFR/LIFR visibility. Gusty winds are also possible. In the wake of this storms, partial clearing along with residual low level moisture from recent rainfall and light/variable wind may lead to areas of fog and low stratus developing late tonight into early Friday morning. Expect sub-VFR restrictions to improve to VFR by Friday afternoon with more scattered showers and storms possible. Outlook... Sat...Reduced chance and more limited coverage of PM showers/t-storm. Sun-Tue...Mainly VFR/no sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ033>036-056-057- 059-063>066. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl DISCUSSION...Steinbugl AVIATION...Steinbugl  340 FXUS64 KHUN 091652 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1152 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1041 CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Mainly low to medium (20-50%) for showers and thunderstorms are expect today, with better chances (up to 60-80%) on Saturday and Sunday afternoons. - A low chance of strong to severe storms are forecast across the area Friday and Saturday. Gusty to damaging winds are the main threat, along with heavy downpours and frequent lightning. - Humid conditions persist with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon with heat index values around 100 through Saturday. Lower heat index values are expected early next week. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1041 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 An upper level trough over the Ohio Valley will flatten as we go into the afternoon, with a zonal flow returning for the upper coming weekend. Isolated showers and thunderstorms that were over far NE Alabama and adjacent middle Tennessee have moved NE out of the area. Other isolated to scattered convection was reforming over NE Alabama. And other isolated to scattered convection over northern Mississippi was approaching our area. Otherwise with clear to party cloudy skies across the Tennessee Valley, area temperatures were climbing into the lower 80s with SW winds of 5-10 mph. Given the convection to our west and more daytime heating, am thinking that this should at least maintain themselves as they move across the area. The models overall were having issues regarding placement and timing of when convection will occur. Shower activity should trend on a diurnal basis, becoming more numerous in the afternoon and early evening (when the highest instability is realized. With daytime heating and surface based CAPE values rising from 1500-2000 J/kg, and precipitable water of 1.7" to 1.9", some of the storms this afternoon could become strong, with gusty outflow wind gusts and torrential downpours. Electrically active storms with frequent lightning is also likely. Otherwise, expect another very warm and humid day across the Valley. High temperatures later today should rise into upper 80s to around 90, with corresponding heat indexes from the mid 90s to 101 degrees. Convection should taper off, but not entirely go away as we go into the evening. Another muggy night can be expected, as lows fall into the lower 70s. Light winds of around 5 mph maybe sufficient to temper more than patchy late night fog development. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 1041 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A generally zonal pattern should be in place for the end of the week. A series of upper systems in the westerlies will move across the area into Saturday. One of these systems is forecast to move in a WNE-ESE manner across the area during Friday. This next system should bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area. Given the system moving mainly across our northern areas, a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) risk for severe weather is forecast, with the greater probability of storms in the afternoon to early evening. Strong to damaging wind gusts is the main threat. Heavy downpours and frequent lightning will also accompany the stronger storms. Before storms arrive, expect another very warm day with highs ranging from the upper 80s and lower 90s, and lows Friday night in the lower 70s. Heat index values from the mid 90s to 103 are expected. More upper level systems are set to impact the area on Saturday. These WNW upper flow driven upper disturbances will in part help to bring another round of strong to severe thunderstorms across the area. These storms should cover more of the area with a risk of strong to damagingwind gusts. A Marginal Risk for severe weather covers all of the Tennessee Valley on Saturday. Timing on when these storms occur is uncertain, with a variety of solutions shown by the deterministic models. With more clouds and higher rain chances a tad cooler on Saturday with highs from the mid 80s to around 90, and heat indexes from the mid 90s to 101. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 We will remain in a humid, tropical airmass through Saturday as zonal flow aloft is challenged by broad upper troughing over the northeast Atlantic. An increase in PVE with the warm humid airmass in place ahead will result in medium to high (70-90%) chances for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday peaking during diurnal heating hours of the afternoon. With PWAT values between 1.8-2", localized flooding could occur across areas that see multiple rounds of heavy rain. As high pressure expands across the Great Lakes, a frontal boundary will shift southward on Sunday and should bring at least a temporary relief from the humidity. Temperatures behind this feature will top out in the mid to upper 80s from Sunday through at least Tuesday, with cooler overnight lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s. The good news is that this will keep the HeatRisk in the Minor (level 1) category which highlights the risk for heat related illness in those who are extremely sensitive to heat and those without cooling/hydration, but will not be as dangerous overall compared to what we have experienced lately. Low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist through the remainder of the long term forecast but will primarily be diurnally driven with a very low risk for any severe storms. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions will be the predominant flight category at both terminals through the period. The one expection may be this afternoon between 18-22z when a TSRA could impact wither terminal. Have added a TEMPO in the timeframe to account for localized MVFR conditions due to reduced ceilings and visibilities. AWWs and amendments may be needed as well. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM....RSB LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...AMP.24  354 FXUS64 KSJT 091653 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1153 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot and dry conditions return for today and Friday with afternoon highs near or above the 100 degree mark. - Low to medium (20-50%) chances for showers and thunderstorms return for this weekend through early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Expect hot and dry conditions today. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer with highs in the mid 90s to around 102. Please follow heat safety precautions if you plan to be outside. Overnight lows will be in the 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 High pressure across the region will begin to shift north towards the northern end of the Great Plains. This will leave us on the southern end of the high pressure ridge. The long range models continue to show embedded disturbances in the flow aloft on the southern end of the ridge. This will support scattered thunderstorm development across our region in the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe. Chances are currently medium (about 50%) for rainfall during this time period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1146 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Satellite images and surface observations indicate clear skies across the CWA early this afternoon. Expect VFR conditions to prevail across west central Texas the rest of the afternoon into this evening as the 500mb subtropical ridge across the southwest United States and northern Mexico will continue to provide subsidence across northwest Texas the rest of today into tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 75 97 75 96 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 74 97 74 95 / 0 0 0 20 Junction 72 94 73 93 / 0 0 20 30 Brownwood 74 97 75 95 / 0 0 0 10 Sweetwater 75 99 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 71 93 73 92 / 0 0 0 20 Brady 72 93 72 92 / 0 0 0 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...61  423 FXUS63 KFSD 091655 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1155 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - High temperatures remain on track to rise to the 90s to 100 degree mark towards this weekend and into early next week. Be prepared to alter outdoor plans to reduce risk of heat illness. - Mostly dry conditions are expected into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 301 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Fog and stratus are expanding over the forecast area this morning, continuing into the mid morning hours. Through 2:30 AM CDT, visibility remains at or above 4 miles, but guidance continues to show some low (35% chance or less) probability of visibility falling below 2 miles. May see some brief visibility below one mile if some hi-res guidance is to be believed. CAMs remain consistent on some additional shower development later this morning for northwestern IA. Confidence is low but can't rule out a sprinkle with the stratus. Conditions today are expected to remain dry with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s and a mix of clouds and sun. A trough is expected to move into the western Dakotas/NE later this afternoon through tonight. Much of the guidance splits the better forcing around our forecast area, with the CAMs following suit (taking convection either north or south), or showing convection weaken on approach. With that, can't entirely rule out an isolated shower/storm through south central SD into the MO River Valley late this evening into tonight if something can move into our area from the west. If this occurs, severe weather is not expected with the lack of shear. Showers may linger into Friday morning as the subtle wave moves south of the area, but confidence in coverage is low (less than 20%). Focus for the forecast remains on the heat building in for the weekend and early next week. Ensemble probabilities of highs exceeding 95 degrees Sunday into early next week remain moderate to high (over 55%) for areas along and west of I-29. If you have outdoor plans, be prepared to alter them to reduce the risk of heat illness. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A few light rain showers persist across mainly northwest Iowa this afternoon. A surface trough and associated cold front continue to track through the forecast area early this afternoon. The mid level clouds associated with these light rain showers continue to sit over mainly northwest Iowa and surrounding locations. This has prevented locations in this area from heating out. The cooler temperatures look to also delay new convective development as the cold front pushes into this area. Still, these clouds look to clear/break up enough to allow adequate instability to develop with a magnitude up to about 2,000 J/kg over the course of the afternoon timeframe. Vertical shear values will be on the weaker side of things with a magnitude of roughly 20-30 knots. Latest hi-res guidance shows that a small, bi-modal severe weather event is on the table for this afternoon and evening. Storms look to develop on both the pre- frontal trough and trailing cold front. Storm development looks to take place across mainly northwest Iowa and adjacent areas this afternoon with a timeframe from from about 4 pm to 10 pm. With the cold frontal forcing, storms look to grow into a line as they push out of the area this evening. While vertical shear magnitudes will be on the lower side, hodographs show a weak but classic veer-back profile. With weak cold advection aloft, lapse rates will steepen just a bit more and allow for a large hail threat. Soundings do show slightly more saturated profiles in the hail growth zone (HGZ) which will tone down the hail threat a bit, with some of the largest stones growing up to half dollar size. DCAPE values will be sufficient with values up to 800 to 1,000 J/kg, keeping a damaging wind threat in place with the strongest gusts up to 65 mph. The large hail threat will come with the initial storm development before transitioning to a damaging wind threat as storms grow upscale. Pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall could result in localized ponding in low lying/urban areas as storms roll through. The storm threat will end this evening, leaving mostly quiet conditions for the overnight hours. Low temperatures will fall to the 60s. Seasonable and mostly dry conditions will return for the end of the week with high temperatures remaining in the 80s to just touching 90F. Winds will be light, making for a pleasant Thursday and Friday. Heights begin to rise aloft on Saturday, beginning to warm temperatures with highs rising to the 80s and 90s. Sunday will kick off the first day of near to above normal temperatures as medium range and ensemble guidance show a 600 dam ridge building into the Northern Plains. This ridge looks to persist through the first half of next week, brining hot and humid conditions with it. The ensembles show a 60-100% chance for highs to exceed 90F Sunday through Tuesday near and west of I-29. Chances for exceeding 100F drop to 40-70% for the same period of time with Tuesday having the highest probabilities. The ensembles also show a broad 40-100% chance for dew points to exceed 60F as well. All these probabilities to say that hot and humid conditions are expected late this weekend and into early next week. A few ensemble members show the ridge beginning to flatten next Wednesday which could begin to trend temperatures down. There remains uncertainty regarding how long the ridge remains strong so something to keep an eye on heading forward. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1153 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Diurnal CU field continues to form at mid-day. Brief periods of MVFR ceilings are possible over the upcoming 1-2 hours, but will lift towards VFR levels for the remainder of the afternoon. This cloud layer will dissipate this evening, leaving high level clouds in the area. Scattered convection moves eastward overnight, likely diminishing in most areas before reaching the TAF locations, however mid-lvl clouds (AOA 10K ft AGL) may develop as mid-lvl moisture/instability arrives. Isolated to scattered showers may linger along or north of Highway 14 into mid-morning. VFR conditions and light winds will prevail elsewhere. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...SG DISCUSSION...Meyers AVIATION...Dux  457 FXUS63 KDDC 091656 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1156 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Weakening upper level ridge will support afternoon highs today ranging from the low 90s north to the upper 90s/near 100 south. - Severe thunderstorms are possible both Thursday and Friday evening, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat. - Strong upper level ridge will build over the weekend into next week, resulting in afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and little to no precipitation chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1210 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Early morning radar observations show scattered showers and thunderstorms percolating across western KS ahead of a weak upper level impulse over the central Rockies. 00Z CAM suite suggests this activity will continue to trend down over the next few hours, and the remainder of the overnight period will be quiet with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Daytime Thursday, modest upper level zonal flow over the northern plains will expand southward into the central plains as a ridge over the far southwestern CONUS weakens and a weak disturbance shifts eastward from the Intermountain West into the central Rockies. Subtle height falls will help shave a few degrees off afternoon temperatures along and north of US-50, where highs will be in the low to mid 90s, but areas near and adjacent to the KS/OK border will still reach the upper 90s/low 100s. Focus then shifts to the probability of severe thunderstorms late Thursday afternoon through the evening. All HREF members agree scattered thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain in eastern CO as early as 17Z ahead of the aforementioned weak upper level impulse. Given 500-mb flow around 20 kts, convection will take its sweet time propagating eastward, but will encounter increasingly better moisture with eastward extent amidst 30-35 kts of deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates. Amalgamation into a mesoscale convective system (MCS) appears the most likely scenario by the time this activity reaches the KS/CO border, which will favor a primarily severe wind gust threat as the thunderstorm complex rolls across southwest KS through the evening and into the overnight period. Some large hail threat cannot be ruled out near the KS/CO border if any semi-discrete cells can be maintained prior to ultimate upscale growth. Daytime Friday, short range ensembles agree the upper level pattern will begin to amplify as a ridge begins to build atop the High Plains. Typically, this would result in an uptick in afternoon temperatures for southwest KS, however convective outflow from the previous night's MCS and only slight height rises support afternoon highs ranging from the mid/upper 80s near I-70 to the mid 90s along the KS/OK border. Another round of severe thunderstorms appears possible Friday evening as CAMs once again show an MCS on our doorstep in far eastern CO at 00Z, but increasing subsidence over our area may limit convective coverage/maintenance, so confidence is limited. Saturday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles indicate the upper level ridge will continue to build, eventually encompassing nearly the entire CONUS with its core centered over the northern plains. This ridge positioning will actually keep the hottest temperatures displaced from southwest KS, allowing afternoon highs to hold in the low to mid 90s into mid-next week. However, the trade off will be little to no precipitation chances during this period as NBM pops are quiet (<15%) through next Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Lowered flight conditions are possible with a round of thunderstorms this evening. A line of storms is forecast to push out of Colorado in the early evening and sweep into the TAF sites around 1-3Z and last until around 8-10Z. The exact time frame and intensity still holds some uncertainty, but overall storm probabilities remain high at 60-90%. With the storms, lowered ceilings and lowered visibilities are possible. After the storms pass, light and variable winds will accompany the returning VFR conditions. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Springer AVIATION...KBJ  453 FXUS64 KLUB 091656 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1156 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1147 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Hot temperatures will continue through Saturday, before a modest cooling and wetter trend develops early next week. - Isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances will exist each afternoon for portions of the far SW TX Panhandle and northern South Plains. - The severe threat remains low although a few marginally severe wind gusts to 55 mph will be possible. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Influence from the H5 upper level ridge and area of high pressure will continue across the West Texas/Panhandle regions through the short term period as the FA finds itself within the eastern periphery of the broadly stretched 595 dam upper high. Despite the modest decrease in geopotential heights, with weak shortwave troughing translating from the Rocky Mountains into the Southern Plains, persistent southerly flow will maintain WAA through the lower to mid-level aiding to an increase in thickness values across the region. As a result, we can expect to see afternoon highs a few degrees warmer today with 850 mb temperatures around 25C to 30C suggesting highs in the upper 90s to lower triple digits. NBM temperatures this afternoon were altered using a blend of NBM 50th to account for the warming trend given NBM seemed a bit too cool given how hot it got yesterday with not as strong WAA. Although confidence remains low, subtle disturbances rippling through the main flow along with upslope component to the wind by late afternoon will work to generate isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico. However, steering flow remains fairly weak which leads to the question if storms can maintain themselves before reaching the area. If storms can make it into the area this evening, they will likely be high-based, given the evident dry sub-cloud layer on forecast soundings. Therefore a few strong the marginally severe wind gusts up to 55 mph cannot be ruled out. Tonight, expect quiet and mild conditions to continue, similar to previous nights with mostly clear skies and overnight lows in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Similar conditions are expected once again tomorrow as the upper level ridge begins to amplify as it begins to translate slowly eastward. In response, we will see a slight uptick in height values while thickness values remain stagnant across the region. Therefore, temperatures will likely be similar to Thursday in the upper 90s to lower triple digits. Winds will remain out of the southwest through early afternoon thanks to lee troughing continuing across southeastern CO before backing once again out of the southeast by late afternoon/early evening as the surface low digs southward into portions of eastern NM/TX Panhandle. Simultaneously, a shortwave trough will begin to dig through the Southern Plains by Friday afternoon, given where this looks to set up most precipitation from this area of large scale ascent will remain to our north. However, moist upslope component to the wind will work with ripples within the north-northwest flow aloft to generate higher terrain thunderstorms in eastern New Mexico. Given better steering flow aloft, confidence is higher for Friday for thunderstorms to track into portions of the far southwestern-central Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. The severe weather threat remains low, however given inverted-V profile soundings we cannot rule out a strong to marginally severe wind gust with stronger storm cores. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Through the extended forecast period we will begin to see the upper level high wobble itself eastward, centering itself over the Central/High Plains by early next week as the upper ridge amplifies itself over much of the central CONUS. Northwest flow aloft will begin to veer out of the north through the weekend, becoming more northeasterly to easterly by early to mid next week. Deterministic guidance diverges slightly on the progression of this upper high as it tracks east, with models like the ECMWF keeping the base of the high over the Caprock regions, suppressing most precipitation chances from the region. While models like the GFS keep the base of the high to our north allowing for chances for precipitation through much of the late weekend into early next week. Depending on where the upper level ridge and associated upper high sets up will be the main factor in determining the intensity and coverage and precipitation chances through the extended package. Although precipitation is uncertain, there is higher confidence in "cooler" temperatures returning to the Caprock regions as early as Sunday. Warm southwesterly flow from H7 to the surface will begin to back out of the southeast in response to the expanding surface high to our north shifting the surface trough into central NM. As a result, we will begin to see moist return flow set-up across the region which should not only increase moisture from the lower to mid-levels but also help limit afternoon highs from reaching the triple digits with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s expected. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR and breezy southerly winds will continue. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...19