616 FXUS64 KLUB 091700 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1158 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Hot temperatures will continue through Saturday, before a modest cooling and wetter trend develops early next week. - Isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances will exist each afternoon for portions of the far SW TX Panhandle and northern South Plains. - The severe threat remains low although a few marginally severe wind gusts to 55 mph will be possible. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Influence from the H5 upper level ridge and area of high pressure will continue across the West Texas/Panhandle regions through the short term period as the FA finds itself within the eastern periphery of the broadly stretched 595 dam upper high. Despite the modest decrease in geopotential heights, with weak shortwave troughing translating from the Rocky Mountains into the Southern Plains, persistent southerly flow will maintain WAA through the lower to mid-level aiding to an increase in thickness values across the region. As a result, we can expect to see afternoon highs a few degrees warmer today with 850 mb temperatures around 25C to 30C suggesting highs in the upper 90s to lower triple digits. NBM temperatures this afternoon were altered using a blend of NBM 50th to account for the warming trend given NBM seemed a bit too cool given how hot it got yesterday with not as strong WAA. Although confidence remains low, subtle disturbances rippling through the main flow along with upslope component to the wind by late afternoon will work to generate isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico. However, steering flow remains fairly weak which leads to the question if storms can maintain themselves before reaching the area. If storms can make it into the area this evening, they will likely be high-based, given the evident dry sub-cloud layer on forecast soundings. Therefore a few strong the marginally severe wind gusts up to 55 mph cannot be ruled out. Tonight, expect quiet and mild conditions to continue, similar to previous nights with mostly clear skies and overnight lows in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Similar conditions are expected once again tomorrow as the upper level ridge begins to amplify as it begins to translate slowly eastward. In response, we will see a slight uptick in height values while thickness values remain stagnant across the region. Therefore, temperatures will likely be similar to Thursday in the upper 90s to lower triple digits. Winds will remain out of the southwest through early afternoon thanks to lee troughing continuing across southeastern CO before backing once again out of the southeast by late afternoon/early evening as the surface low digs southward into portions of eastern NM/TX Panhandle. Simultaneously, a shortwave trough will begin to dig through the Southern Plains by Friday afternoon, given where this looks to set up most precipitation from this area of large scale ascent will remain to our north. However, moist upslope component to the wind will work with ripples within the north-northwest flow aloft to generate higher terrain thunderstorms in eastern New Mexico. Given better steering flow aloft, confidence is higher for Friday for thunderstorms to track into portions of the far southwestern-central Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. The severe weather threat remains low, however given inverted-V profile soundings we cannot rule out a strong to marginally severe wind gust with stronger storm cores. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Through the extended forecast period we will begin to see the upper level high wobble itself eastward, centering itself over the Central/High Plains by early next week as the upper ridge amplifies itself over much of the central CONUS. Northwest flow aloft will begin to veer out of the north through the weekend, becoming more northeasterly to easterly by early to mid next week. Deterministic guidance diverges slightly on the progression of this upper high as it tracks east, with models like the ECMWF keeping the base of the high over the Caprock regions, suppressing most precipitation chances from the region. While models like the GFS keep the base of the high to our north allowing for chances for precipitation through much of the late weekend into early next week. Depending on where the upper level ridge and associated upper high sets up will be the main factor in determining the intensity and coverage and precipitation chances through the extended package. Although precipitation is uncertain, there is higher confidence in "cooler" temperatures returning to the Caprock regions as early as Sunday. Warm southwesterly flow from H7 to the surface will begin to back out of the southeast in response to the expanding surface high to our north shifting the surface trough into central NM. As a result, we will begin to see moist return flow set-up across the region which should not only increase moisture from the lower to mid-levels but also help limit afternoon highs from reaching the triple digits with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s expected. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions and breezy south-southwest winds will persist through the period. Scattered high clouds may filter in from the northwest during the overnight hours. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...24  672 FXUS64 KTSA 091700 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Hot and humid conditions Thursday with large area of heat advisory conditions. - Isolated to widely scattered storms Thursday through Friday generally along and north of Interstate 40. - Storm chances trend higher late Friday through the weekend and possibly into early next week. Temperatures trend nearer to seasonal normals with the increase in daily rain chances. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Morning showers across portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas associated with the low level jet will continue to decrease and push east into the early afternoon. Widely scattered afternoon showers with isolated thunderstorms will still be possible, largely north of I-40 as heat and humidity build through the afternoon. Stronger flow aloft would also support some severe potential with downburst winds the main concern through the period. This afternoon still trends to be a hot one, though the early morning showers and cloud cover have slowed the warm up slightly. More veered surface flow form the southwest and favorable placement of the low level thermal ridge will allow temps to approach 100 degrees across portions of northeast Oklahoma this afternoon. Dewpoint temperatures are running a little less than yesterday at this time, but still humid conditions can be expected to combine with the temperatures to produce widespread heat index values ranging from 105 to 110 degrees across the forecast area. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for much of the area and trends will continue to be monitored for a possible upgrade to a warning for some locations if needed. More wind and high dewpoints across the region will again lead to very warm overnight lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s tonight. Bowlan pushing rain chances further south and out of the local region. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Another complex of storms looks to expand in coverage across Kansas later tonight into early Friday morning. Again, some of this activity could sneak far enough south to get into the forecast area Friday morning. Generally just lighter showers with isolated thunder is expected with any activity through the morning hours. Hot and humid conditions continue again on Friday with more heat headlines likely needed from later shifts. Similar to Thursday, widely scattered afternoon showers and storms will again be possible north of I-40, with some severe risk present. The upper ridge will amplify over the western CONUS and a couple of shortwaves will dive south through the forecast area over the weekend, pushing a frontal boundary into the area by Saturday. This will lead to more favored shower and thunderstorm development by Saturday afternoon through the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall will be the main threat with the deep moisture in place and slower storm motions expected. Better rain chances will slowly drift south across the forecast area by late Sunday into early next week. Temperatures more near the seasonal normal can be expected from late weekend into early next week in the wake of the passing boundary. By this time, the upper ridge will intensify and build northeastward across the Central and Northern Plains. Influence form the ridge looks to slowly expand southward into the local region through mid week, with lower daily rain chances and warming temperatures the result in the forecast though the middle part of next week. Bowlan && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A few showers continue that may briefly lead to light rain at the NE OK and far NW AR terminals early in the period but impacts to aviation should be minimal. VFR conditions should prevail at all sites through the period, with LLWS impacts once again expected overnight tonight. Chances for shower and thunderstorm impacts will be low at any one site and any mention will be left out of the TAFs for now. An MCS expected to develop to the west of the area is expected to diminish late tonight/early tomorrow morning before reaching the NE OK terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 81 98 80 96 / 20 20 20 50 FSM 81 98 79 96 / 10 20 10 30 MLC 81 96 80 96 / 10 10 10 10 BVO 78 96 76 94 / 20 20 30 40 FYV 79 93 77 91 / 20 20 30 60 BYV 78 93 75 90 / 20 20 40 70 MKO 80 97 79 94 / 20 20 20 50 MIO 77 94 75 91 / 20 20 40 50 F10 80 97 79 95 / 10 10 10 30 HHW 78 96 77 94 / 10 10 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>068- 070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376. AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ119-120-129-219- 220-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...22  661 FXUS65 KBOU 091700 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1100 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of scattered to numerous thunderstorms Thursday, with the severe threat expanding further west to the Front Range. - Prolonged period of hot temperatures arrive Saturday, lasting through at least Tuesday. Thunderstorm chances remain low during this period. && .DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/... Issued at 132 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Moisture will remain elevated today, with dewpoints in the upper 40s to potentially low 60s for the plains this afternoon. This moisture and steep low to mid level lapse rates will lead to decent instability today (MLCAPEs around 1000 to 1800 J/kg). The instability combined with weak upslope from east/southeast surface winds, a weak shortwave moving over the area, and 0-6 km shear around 30 to 45kts will provide the necessary ingredients for scattered to numerous thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. The main severe hazards today will be large hail and strong winds, however we could see a landspout form if a storm develops near the DCVZ. There will also be the potential for localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding across the plains. Showers and storms are expected to form in the higher terrain and foothills in the early afternoon before moving east across the plains throughout the afternoon and evening. The upper level ridging will begin to build towards the area on Friday. Weak subsidence on the backside of today's shortwave and ahead of the upper level ridge will put a damper on our storm chances for Friday. However, storm chances won't go away completely. Dewpoints are forecast to remain in the 40s and 50s with decent instability. Shear looks to weaken slightly for the area on Friday, especially in our northern counties which will limit the severe potential. The main question that remains is where the outflow boundaries will set up on Friday from the convection on Thursday. Convergence along any residual boundaries and the weak upslope flow could be enough to trigger some more isolated convection Friday afternoon, but the severe threat will be lower (in both intensity and coverage) compared to Thursday. The upper level ridge will continue to build over the area for the weekend. The center of the high will move northeast throughout the weekend, parking over the NE/SD/IA area through the middle of next week. Under this strong ridge, we'll see large scale subsidence and hot temperatures. Temperatures are forecast to reach into the 90s to around 103 degrees in the plains for the first part of next week. The warmest temperatures are forecast to be in the northern I-25 corridor area. Right now, we have Major Heat Risk for portions of the urban corridor and I-25 corridor for Monday and Tuesday, including Denver, Boulder, and the Fort Collins area. This means there is a major risk for heat related illness in these areas, especially for people without effective cooling and proper hydration. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday/... Issued at 1055 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds are currently northeast at all terminals and should continue for the afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will then develop over the foothills in the next few hours and then trek east throughout the afternoon. Have kept the TEMPO groups as is for all TAF sites, with gusty VRB outflow winds of 35-40 kts possible. Expect convection to end by 00Z, with outflow boundaries mainly keeping winds from the east this evening. Tonight, a bit more westerly wind is possible within the drainage flow. For tomorrow, light northeasterly winds are expected again. Despite a decrease in moisture, another round of isolated showers are possible later in the afternoon. Have introduced a PROB30 for this reason, with gusts of 25 kts. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AP AVIATION...MAI  713 FXUS62 KRAH 091701 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 100 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Heat Advisory issued for portions of the southern Coastal Plain. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 146 AM Thursday... 1) Slightly less hot across the NW Piedmont today but dangerous heat/humidity persists across the southern Coastal Plain. Heat concerns likely to continue into the first half of the weekend. 2) Isolated to scattered diurnally maximized convective chances continue into the weekend ahead of an approaching cold front and potential for more widespread coverage Saturday and Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... As of 146 AM Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Slightly less hot across the NW Piedmont today but dangerous heat/humidity persists across the southern Coastal Plain. Heat concerns likely to continue into the first half of the weekend. Mid level drying will briefly take hold across the area today, with many locations seeing dewpoints mix out into the mid/upper 60s this afternoon. At the same time, H5 heights will increase slightly especially across the southern Coastal Plain. In that area in particular, the slightly lower dewpoints will likely be offset by higher 2m temps and once again we will see some areas of dangerously high heat index values across the area. This time it looks to be confined to the southern Coastal Plain and points southeast, and another Heat Advisory has been issued for today. Looking ahead at Friday and Saturday, persistent mid level ridging will keep temperatures well above normal (approaching 100 in some spots across the Coastal Plain), and it's entirely likely we'll need to continue with Heat Advisories for parts of our area through Saturday. Finally by Sunday we will see some relief area-wide as temperatures retreat into the mid 80s across the NW Piedmont and upper 80s to the southeast. Near or slightly below normal temps are forecast through at least Tuesday before warming once again into the low to mid 90s. KEY MESSAGE 2... Isolated to scattered diurnally maximized convective chances continue into the weekend ahead of an approaching cold front and potential for more widespread coverage Saturday and Sunday. Weak mid-lvl and convectively perturbed westerly flow will work to focus otherwise air mass convection each afternoon/evening through Friday. Moderate instability, seasonable PWAT values, and steep low- lvl lapse rates will support damaging straight-line winds as the most likely hazard each afternoon and evening, although coverage today will likely be more limited in nature with roughly neutral H5 height tendencies and PWAT values around 1.5 to 1.75" advecting into central NC during peak heating. Best chances may be more focused around southern Appalachians that moves eastward into the Piedmont and again on Friday, but perhaps aided by outflow stemming from upstream convection over the Ohio Valley. Precipitation chances and coverage are expected to increase heading into the weekend as anomalous mid/upper lvl ridging over the Four Corners into the Northern Plains directs a west-to-east streamer of anomalous moisture and parade of convectively induced shortwave disturbances traverse across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. At the same time, high pressure is expected to build and strengthen over the Northeast and push a backdoor cold front into and through central NC Sun into Monday. Convective chances will be muddied by several days of prior coverage and rain cooled outflow moving into the area and the approaching cold front. If adequate instability is able to develop, increased mid-lvl flow of 25-35 kts would allow for more organized convection to develop. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 100 PM Thursday... TAF period: VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. Some scattered convection is expected this afternoon, although coverage should be less than yesterday afternoon and is expected to remain confined to INT/GSO. Cannot rule out a rogue thunderstorm reaching as far east as RDU, but think that is rather unlikely. Although there was widespread low stratus this morning that impacted RWI and was just to the north of RDU, do not expect a repeat of that on Friday morning, considering the drier air in the area and less precipitation coverage expected this afternoon. Outlook: Thunderstorm coverage should remain meager once again on Friday, with INT the most likely location to have any thunderstorms. Widespread thunderstorm coverage along with flight restrictions are expected at all terminals on Saturday and Sunday, with convection limited to INT/GSO/FAY on Monday and all locations expected to be dry on Tuesday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ088-089. && $$ DISCUSSION...Leins/AS AVIATION...Green  687 FXUS63 KEAX 091700 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms Expected Overnight; Heavy Rainfall Possible - Conditional Severe Threat Thursday Afternoon; Activity May Push Further Eastward - Near Triple Digit Heat Index Values Interstate 70 and South Thursday && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1121 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 H5 short-wave trough is moving out of the eastern Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. Stronger surface cyclone is present over western Kansas. This will be slow to move as it is largely disconnected from any mid-level steering flow. This has setup a warm front that as of late Wednesday evening is currently stalled over eastern Kansas. Convection over the past several hours has resulted in a differential heating boundary from the Upper Midwest into the Sandhills of Nebraska, and has been able to develop some new convection heading into the overnight hours. Complicating the mesoscale view though are numerous outflow boundaries that have developed under the area upper-level divergence. Broad large-scale ascent should continue to occur as this short-wave trough move overs head, and shower/storm activity should continue overnight and through much of the morning. While there is decent CAPE ahead of these showers/storms moving in, the weaker mid-level flow away from the axis of the short-wave trough, keeping deep layer shear low, has struggled to sustain strong updrafts for an extended period of time, with most storms becoming outflow dominant in fairly short order. A few stronger cores may be possible overnight with any remaining pockets of higher CAPE, and perhaps a few isolated wind gusts around 60 MPH and or quarter-size hail may be possible with a few storms. Most of this activity will push eastward out of the forecast area before 18z. Depending on how organized activity remains, PWAT values near 2.0 inches along with deep warm-cloud processes, efficient rainfall may result in localized rainfall amounts between 1.5 and 2.0 inches, and therefore may present some hydrologic issues, including the KC metro. Redevelopment east of Interstate 35 is possible later into the afternoon and evening, depending on where the boundary ends up. If outflow boundary production from overnight convection lingers, this may greatly alter the mesoscale environment heading into the afternoon. We may see more mid-level short-wave activity in the afternoon which could increase lift across much of the area again. However, the stronger vort maxima may move further eastward out of the area before there is sufficient time for the boundary layer to destabilize. And depending on where subsequent mid-level short-wave travel, may have localized pockets of deep layer shear to help organize convection. But if cloud-cover lingers into the middle of the afternoon across the area, this may push convection initiation further eastward or may require new activity to travel further before encountering a higher CAPE environment to strengthen. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1121 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Friday - Sunday... Ridging will begin to build over the western Plains on Friday. Remnant troughing to slowly push eastward Friday into Saturday. A stalled frontal boundary will remain parked over the region during this time. Southerly flow south of the front will continue to pump moisture into the region as PWATs will remain in the 1.5-1.75 inches range. This moisture and lifting mechanisms will keep scattered showers and storms in the forecast for Friday through most of Sunday. Over the southern half of the forecast area (south of the stalled front), we will see SBCAPE increase, which will allow for a small chance for strong storms. Main hazard with this will be gusty to damaging winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall. During this time, we will see highs in the upper 80s and low 90s and lows in the upper 60s and low 70s. Monday - Mid Next Week... By next week, impressive ridging will build over the central CONUS and high pressure will strengthen at the surface. These features will allow for conditions to dry out and for temperatures to increase a bit each day. Temperatures are likely to top out in the low to mid 90s mid next week. Though, dew points will remain in the mid 60s, which will keep heat indices in the upper 90s. Winds will remain light through this timeframe. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop this afternoon, though there is uncertainty in where exactly these develop. Given the uncertainty in the placement of storms, have kept as prob30 across all sites. Storms end after 00z with winds becoming light and variable in direction. Additional showers are expected on Friday morning across all sites. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Krull LONG TERM...Wilson AVIATION...Hagenhoff  761 FXUS63 KLSX 091703 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1203 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail and a few brief tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible with these storms through tonight. - Another round of severe thunderstorms is possible on Friday afternoon and evening, and locally heavy rainfall will also be possible with these storms. - Generally dry weather is expected Sunday into next week with warmer than average temperatures. && .SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 1036 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain remain the primary forecast concerns today and Friday. An MCS over northeast Kansas looks like it's spinning up an MCV at this time. Short range guidance moves this MCV east through the day at varying speeds. The RAP may be the slowest, only pushing the vortmax as far as the Mississippi River by 00Z. Various CAMs, the GFS and short range ensembles such as the HREF and REFS move the wave more quickly eastward, crossing the Mississippi river into Illinois around 18Z today. The timing and track of the MCV will be part of what determines convective trends this afternoon. The faster solution would limit afternoon convection mainly to areas along and east of I- 44 in Missouri and along and south of I-70 in Illinois. However the slower solution puts the entire area under threat of thunderstorms this afternoon. Since the model consensus is faster, am leaning in that direction with highest PoPs over east central and southeast Missouri into southern Illinois. Kept low chance PoPs over most of the remainder of the area keeping the slower RAP in mind. Models are showing 3000+ J/Kg CAPE with 30-35kts of deep layer shear which is good enough for storms to become organized into severe multicell clusters or even a severe MCS. Primary threat remains damaging winds in excess of 50kts. Boundary interactions along with a bit of extra directional shear associated with the MCV may be enough for a brief tornado as well. Additionally, there's enough CAPE in the hail-growth zone to support hail up to around 1 inch in diameter. The severe threat should diminish with weakening instability during the evening. The low level jet increases to 30-40kts tonight which will produce moderate to strong moisture convergence along any low level boundary laid down by earlier convection. This should result in more thunderstorms tonight, though precisely where the storms will develop will depend on where the low level boundary settles. Some guidance keeps it farther north closer to the I-70 corridor, while others are more across the Ozarks. Regardless, the low level jet veers overnight which should make the storms progressive along the boundary, but there will probably be more than one wave of thunderstorms that track along it. There is therefore a locally heavy rain threat, though widespread flooding doesn't look likely at this time as flash flood guidance is pretty universally well in excess of 2"/hr. Convective trends for Friday and Friday night are very dependent upon where the effective boundary ends up Friday morning, and on another convectively enhanced wave moving across Missouri into Illinois. There's a question of how unstable the atmosphere will get Friday afternoon into Friday evening depending on where the effective surface boundary is. However, severe wind gusts and hail will be possible again. && .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1036 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Models vary in how strong the aforementioned convectively enhanced short wave is as it moves from Missouri into Illinois late Friday night into Saturday morning. Some solutions show a strong wave which develops a closed low at the surface that drives a composite weak cold front and lingering convective boundary through Missouri Saturday morning. This would dry out the low levels and likely end the chance for thunderstorms. Others are weaker and allow the boundary to linger over the area through Saturday which would keep a chance for precip going longer. There's no particular reason to favor either solution at this point as it will depend on convective trends upstream over the Great Plains. Guidance continues to show a strong upper level ridge developing over the western U.S. late Saturday into Sunday which spreads east across the Plains and Midwest by early next week. Models continue to show some differences in the speed with which it builds east, and the ultimate strength of the ridge. However, the consensus continues to put the thermal ridge north of our area across the Upper Midwest. The NBM temperature forecast therefore looks pretty good with dry and warm, but not excessively warm weather next week. && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Thunderstorms are likely to develop by mid-late afternoon, mainly in southeast Missouri and south-central Illinois. Additional storms are forecast this evening into the early overnight hours from central to southeast Missouri. That leaves the central Missouri and the metro St. Louis terminals on the northern edge, so maintained PROB30 groups. Any storm that does manage to directly impact a terminal could produce some gusty winds and lower visibility below 3SM in a downpour. Gosselin && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch from 4 PM CDT this afternoon through Saturday morning for Crawford MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO- Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Washington MO. IL...Flood Watch from 4 PM CDT this afternoon through Saturday morning for Randolph IL. && $$ WFO LSX  806 FXUS61 KAKQ 091704 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 104 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 18Z TAF Updated && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hotter summertime temperatures return today and Friday. Meanwhile, a more progressive upper level pattern develops today and Friday. This will bring a series of upper level disturbances, which will have the potential to trigger strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. There is also a risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding across far northern portions of the area today. 2) Near to slightly below average temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week, with additional chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms Saturday, before trending drier later in the weekend into early next week. 3) Hot temperatures potentially return by mid to late next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 355 AM EDT Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Hotter summertime temperatures return today and Friday. Meanwhile, a more progressive upper level pattern develops today and Friday. This will bring a series of upper level disturbances, which will have the potential to trigger strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. There is also a risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding across far northern portions of the area today. GOES water vapor channels depict the axis of a subtropical ridge centered off the Southeast coast early this morning. Meanwhile, an upper trough is pushing across the Great Lakes, with a secondary wave over the upper Ohio Valley. At the surface high pressure is centered offshore with a weak trough inland. The low-level wind is light and generally out of the S to SE. Warm and humid with temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. Some areas of stratus were observed, which should linger early this morning, before scattering and lifting later this morning. The subtropical ridge re-asserts itself today. 850mb temperatures return to 18-20C today NW-SW across the local area. This will support high temperatures ~90F across the N to the mid 90s SE. Dewpoints across NE NC east of the Chowan River will struggle to drop below the mid 70s during peak heating. Therefore, heat indices potentially reach 105-109F and a Heat Advisory has been issued for Chowan, Perquimans, Pasquotank, Camden, and Currituck Counties (excluding Outer Banks Currituck) from 11AM-7PM. Southside Hampton Roads will see heat indices in the lower 100s, but should largely remain below 105F as a slight SE component to the wind should help temperatures remain in the lower half of the 90s. The mid/upper level flow becomes more progressive today and Friday. The 500mb flow increases to 30-35kt this afternoon ahead of a subtle shortwave trough (the feature currently over the upper Ohio Valley), with similar values Friday ahead of a more potent shortwave trough. With strengthening mid level flow and strong surface heating strong to locally severe tstms are possible each afternoon with the main threat being damaging wind gusts. The best potential for tstms today will primarily be N/NE of I-64 in closer proximity to the stronger ascent. Farther S, convection will likely be suppressed given warmer 850 to 700mb temperatures in closer proximity to the upper ridge. The question on Friday is coverage given more drier downslope flow. Additionally, the 00z/09 HREF and REFS have a decent signal for heavy rain later this afternoon and evening from the Northern Neck to SE MD (and points N). This is where there is a threat of localized flash flooding, with a much less risk farther S. KEY MESSAGE 2...Near to slightly below average temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week, with additional chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms Saturday, before trending drier later in the weekend into early next week. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms chances continue through Saturday as a cold front pushes through the area. The main threat will be locally heavy rainfall with rich moisture and PW values 120- 140% of normal. A few stronger tstms are also possible. By the end of the weekend and into next week models hint at a drier pattern as high pressure returns to the area. Seasonally hot and humid Saturday, with high temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s. High temperatures trend down into the 80s Sunday and Monday (with some guidance suggesting lower to mid 80s), before a warming trend commences Tuesday. KEY MESSAGE 3...Hot temperatures potentially return by mid to late next week. Global ensemble guidance depicts an upper ridge building over the upper Midwest by early next week and pivoting into the Mid- Atlantic by mid to late next week. This will allow for a return to hot temperatures will highs potentially well into the 90s by mid to late next week. Ensemble guidance also shows PW values near to slightly below normal, so mainly dry conditions should be favored much of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 104 PM EDT Thursday... A mix of VFR and MVFR CIGS have been noted across the terminals early this afternoon. Clouds are struggling to clear across Central and SE VA leading to MVFR CIGS while across NC and MD VFR conditions are prevailing with higher cloud bases and slightly less cloud cover. Showers and thunderstorms have initiated west of the CWA and are forecasted to move across the northern half of the area this afternoon and evening. The best probability is RIC and SBY where PROB30 groups continue for late this aftn/early evening. Any tstms could produce some brief strong wind gusts. Any showers/tstms move offshore later this evening with VFR condition prevailing overnight. Winds remain out of the SSW 5-10kt today inland and SE at the coast, then light out of the SW tonight. Outlook: Chances of aftn/evening showers/tstms by Friday is generally ~30% at RIC and 30-50% at SBY, with 20% or less elsewhere, then 60-70% by Saturday. Trending drier and VFR Sunday into Monday. && .MARINE... As of 1145 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected through the end of the week. - Elevated onshore flow may develop later Sunday into Monday with Small Craft Advisories possible. - There is a moderate risk for rip currents today across all area beaches. The main change to the forecast was to expand the moderate risk for rip currents today across all area beaches after coordination with neighboring offices. Lifeguard reports and cameras showed some rip currents across the Eastern Shore and Outer Banks even though nearshore waves were short. Previous Discussion... Benign marine conditions prevail through the forecast period. Winds this morning are out of the S-SE and generally 5-10 kt. A very weak front will cross the waters this evening/early tonight, with a wind shift to the W-SW. The main focus with this feature will instead be the potential for strong to severe storms capable of producing localized pockets of higher winds and waves. The prevailing flow will be out of the S Friday and less than 10 kt, though additional storms are possible. A more substantial front is forecast to drop southward Saturday with northerly sub-SCA winds developing in its wake. There is then an emerging signal for weak low pressure to develop just S of the local waters Monday, beneath a high pressure system to our N. This could lead to a prolonged period of northeasterly onshore flow from later Sunday through at least Monday. At this time, will forecast 15-20 kt w/ gusts to 25 kt for the lower bay and coastal waters. Seas would also build to at least 4-6 ft (3-4 ft waves lower bay) given this wind speed and direction combination. Overall, the current forecast would necessitate Small Craft Advisories, but uncertainty remains at this state so will monitor over the coming days. Additionally, will note that nuisance to perhaps locally minor coastal flooding is possible across the middle Ches Bay with tonight's high tide. However, currently think conditions are just below Coastal Flood Statement criteria. That being said, will reevaluate the potential need for Coastal Flood Statements later this afternoon. && .EQUIPMENT... Repairs have been completed in the KAKQ radar and it is currently in service. However, some additional downtime will be needed this morning for some additional maintenance. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ015>017-031- 032. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJZ/HET AVIATION...AJZ/HET MARINE...RMM/SW EQUIPMENT...  909 FXUS63 KGRB 091706 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1206 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will come to an end late this afternoon. Severe storms are not expected. - Will need to watch precipitation trends this weekend. A few storms are possible Saturday and Sunday. - Trends continue to be monitored for the excessive heat potential early next week with highs in the 90s at some locations. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Scattered showers continued early this morning near Rhinelander and Merrill eastward into northern Door County ahead of a weak cold front that is expected to sag southward today. As the front sags southward, rain chances return to central and east-central WI this morning which will continue into the afternoon. Bufkit soundings indicated 500 to 800 J/KG of CAPE and shear values around 20 knots, thus not expecting severe weather today. The showers and storms will end from north to south this afternoon. Tranquil conditions are expected on Friday. A new wrinkle to the forecast for the weekend. High pressure is expected to set up across the state. Return flow/850mb warm advection sets up Friday night, which should result in scattered thunderstorms developing across Minnesota and western WI. Some of the activity may spill into far north-central WI towards 12z Saturday. The combination of daytime heating and possibly an outflow boundary from the overnight convection is expected to bring a chance of showers and storms across the north Saturday afternoon. Confidence is low on a dry forecast for Sunday as the Canadian/ECMWF are bringing a weak impulse across the area at 500mb. The ECMWF is more bullish than the Canadian model on the QPF output for Sunday. Will continue to monitor to see if rain will need to be added for this period. 500mb ridge builds early next week, resulting increasing heat and humidity later this weekend through the middle of next week. 850mb temperatures are pretty toasty off the ECMWF/Canadian/GFS that would support highs in the lower to middle 90s at our typical hot spots. Current forecast is a little bit lower that what the max values would be each day. None the less, it will be hot. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A weak cold front is dropping south from roughly Wisconsin Rapids (ISW) to Appleton (ATW) late this morning. A mix of ceilings ranging from IFR to VFR exist along the front and across much of central, east-central, and far northeast WI. Skies are clearing across far northern WI as a drier airmass moves in the low levels. Widely scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible along and ahead of the boundary through 00Z. The IFR/MVFR ceilings are expected to gradually rise, but MVFR ceilings could persist through 20-22Z along the front. Brief downpours could drop visibilities to IFR in the heaviest shower activity. Skies are anticipated to clear tonight which will set up a favorable ground fog scenario. The most favored area for ground fog will be across central WI and parts of the Fox Valley where dewpoints will struggle to mix out this afternoon. LIFR/IFR flight conditions will be possible in the ground fog from 08-13Z Fri. Fair weather clouds are expected to build after the fog burns off later Fri morning. Light winds are expected over the TAF period. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Eckberg AVIATION.......MPC  946 FXUS63 KPAH 091706 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1206 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms continues late this afternoon into tonight. The main severe hazard is damaging winds, with a heavy rain hazard capable of localized flooding. - There is a similar, lingering, albeit smaller marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms late Friday into Friday night, then again Saturday into Saturday night. - Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall are possible into and through the weekend; a Flood Watch is in effect. 1 to 3 inches cumulative rainfall is forecast on average, but locally higher amounts twice that or more are possible if and where storms repeat over the same areas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 As the near term environment becomes increasingly warm and unstable, expect an approaching short wave this evening to touch off/expand our storm threat. The latest CAM modeling suggests it might be moreso in the evening vs the late pm, but cannot rule out earlier development entirely. The wave brings increased shear and steepening lapse rates aloft, so the slight risk svr continues with damaging winds the main such hazard. Localized flooding will be possible from heavy rains, esp if they can train over the same areas. The aforementioned wave lingers activity into Friday morning, then there is a relative wane before another similar looking wave touches off convection late Friday into Friday night. Rinse and repeat for Saturday into Saturday night. Any of these storms will have just enough shear to work with from their parent driving wave(s) to keep a marginal risk of severe storms for damaging winds, while the continuing heavy rain hazard only heightens the localized flooding potential based upon repeat or training storms dumping high PW rainfall over the same areas. While we have 1-3" in the storm average cumulative rainfall forecast generally speaking, there is potential for localized higher amounts twice or more that, esp if they can repeat over the same areas...the Flood Watch continues. We'll have to monitor daily storm chances into early next week, as the models get a little muddier with when/where they set up the broader synoptic scale ridge; this should eventually serve to stop our daily chances and heat us up a little. For now, we're looking at by mid week seeing its drying/warming impacts with highs more regularly pushing 90F again. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Outside isolated diurnal activity, storm chances pick up again tonight with more widespread restrictions offered. CIGS may restrict to MVFR and VSBYS to IFR as the primary wave driving convection makes late night-early Friday passage. Recovery toward Visual Flight Rules should commence by tmrw pm, before another wave enters the forecast picture by tmrw night. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>112-114. IN...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for KYZ001>022. && $$  918 FXUS65 KTFX 091706 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1106 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Turning drier and much warmer through the weekend, with some record heat possible over the weekend. - Breezy conditions Saturday may result in some elevated fire conditions. - Not as hot next week, but still warm through next week. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 537 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026/ While upper level flow will remain zonal/westerly over the next few days, expect generally drier and still warm conditions over the next 48 hours. The only exception to this may be a few isolated thunderstorms along the Continental Divide Friday as warmer air pushes into the area. Upper level ridging will build rapidly build late Friday and Saturday, which will cause temperatures to surge into the upper 90s to around 100F for most low elevation locations by Saturday afternoon, with many areas likely seeing 100F Sunday afternoon, though the exact temperature may depend on some incoming high clouds. Upper level flow will shift to more westerly on Monday, which will allow temperatures to lower a bit from the weekend highs, but most areas will still be quite warm with temperatures well into the 80s to low 90s. With this upper level flow pattern, expect generally dry conditions with just a few showers and thunderstorms to pop up in the afternoon. A passing upper level trough may bring some more widespread showers and storms on Wednesday, though timing of the trough passage will ultimately determine just how widespread and intense the storms will be. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Heat this weekend: Models have been in very good agreement in regards to very warm to hot temperatures across North Central and Southwestern Montana this weekend. While the NBM has begun to forecast some record heat (with even some all time records in jeopardy across Southwestern Montana), there remains a slight bit of uncertainty with regards to just how hot it will get. Most models seem to be hinting at some thin, high cirrus clouds streaming in. While at first glance this may sound like a likely failure mode, and it might be, thin cirrus clouds have a documented ability to provide a net greenhouse effect by allowing incoming infrared light to pass through, but keep outgoing infrared heat trapped below them. So given this interaction, I see no reason to deviate from the NBM’s rather warm forecast. I heavily debated whether or not to issue an Extreme Heat Watch, but given the potential for all time record highs in some locations, even if temperatures come in slightly cooler than expected it will still be hot enough for at least a Heat Advisory. Ludwig && .AVIATION... 09/18Z TAF Period VFR conditions will prevail through the 0918/1018 TAF period; however, hot temperatures through the weekend may result in some high density issues, particularly across the terminals of Southwest and portions of Central Montana. - Moldan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 88 56 94 59 / 0 0 0 20 CTB 82 55 86 57 / 0 0 0 20 HLN 88 56 91 60 / 0 0 10 20 BZN 87 54 91 57 / 0 0 10 20 WYS 83 45 86 47 / 20 20 0 0 DLN 86 52 88 54 / 0 0 10 20 HVR 88 56 92 59 / 0 0 0 10 LWT 83 53 89 55 / 0 0 0 20 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for Canyon Ferry Area-Fergus County below 4500ft-Gallatin Valley- Madison River Valley-Missouri Headwaters-Northern Blaine County. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  044 FXUS64 KLCH 091708 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1208 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower activity is expected to decrease today and tomorrow as an upper level ridge briefly builds back in. - A weakness redevelops over the weekend along with deeper tropical like moisture helping to increase convection. - Typical summertime heat can be expected with afternoon max apparent temperatures between 100 and 105 degrees daily with the heat risk at moderate level (2 out of 4.) && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Current conditions remain fairly average and humid, with temps in the mid to upper 70s and dewpoints a few degrees shy of there. At the surface, the high pressure over the area / SE will maintain light southerly to calm flow for the next several days. Aloft, the upper weakness will continue to break down as the ridges off the CA and FL coasts both shift further into the CONUS. While this will not completely inhibit our run of the mill seabreeze / diurnally driven showers and storms, it will help in stopping it from being as widespread as in days previous. Going into the weekend, we will see a return in convection as the upper ridge loses its influence over the area, allowing for a weak trough and frontal boundary to move southward. Tropical moisture will become focused across the Gulf Coast region, with PWATs nearing or exceeding the 90th percentile. Those things in conjunction with diurnal processes will allow for scattered to numerous showers and storms from this weekend into the end of this forecast cycle. Albeit warm, temperatures over the next few days will only be a few degrees above their climatological averages. With the expected rain and cloud cover this weekend, MaxTs will likely be kept in check. The aforementioned boundary is a front only by name, as it will make no noticeable difference to temps or dewpoints. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Isolated showers and storms will continue along/south of the I-10 corridor through the afternoon however, coverage is not expected to expand quite as much as the last few days. A scattered to broken cloud deck around 3000ft will continue to stream across the region this afternoon, causing some sites to waffle between VFR and MVFR on occasion. This evening into tomorrow, VFR conditions and light winds prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Surface high pressure will remain stretched from the Atlantic into the northern Gulf through the week. This will keep a light south to southwest flow and low seas in place. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be possible each day, with coverage increasing a bit by the late weekend into early next week as another weakness develops aloft. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 No fire weather concerns at this time. Isolated to widely scattered storms will be possible in the afternoon to early evening along the sea breeze today and tomorrow, however coverage will be limited as an upper ridge builds in. Higher rain chances return this weekend. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87 AVIATION...17  128 FXUS63 KICT 091709 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1209 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional thunderstorm chances develop later this afternoon and continue into the overnight hours. Widespread severe weather is not expected, though the strongest storms may be capable of damaging winds and small hail. - Continued chances for showers and storms through the weekend, especially late overnight into the early morning hours. - Mid-upper 90s expected today with lower 90s this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Currently, a relatively flat ridge extends across the Western US with a shortwave situated over the Northern Plains. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary is positioned just ahead of this wave across the Upper Midwest and into Nebraska. A stationary boundary is draped just to the north of our forecast area that pushed across the state yesterday as a warm front. Afternoon temperatures yesterday topped out a couple of degrees above normal and similar conditions are expected today before the frontal boundary over Nebraska pushes across the region later tonight. Rain and general thunderstorms developed overnight across the Flint Hills and linger over eastern Kansas early this morning. This activity will gradually shift east out of the area and diminish in intensity through the morning hours. As the frontal boundary to our north begins to push south into our area later this afternoon/evening, a few diurnally driven storms will fire ahead of the boundary in southern Kansas. More widespread rain and storm chances are expected as an MCS off the High Plains pushes eastward during the late evening and overnight hours. Most guidance is directing this feature across central Kansas, though nearly all locations remain in play at this time. The main threat with this activity will be damaging wind gusts, primarily across western and central Kansas as storms are expected to weaken as they progress eastward. Scattered rain and storm chances will continue into Friday and Saturday as the frontal boundary stalls across the southern tier of our area. Exact storm position will depend on where this boundary settles. Then, as a strong ridge builds over the central US next week, the forecast area looks to reside under easterly flow. This setup could support a few showers and weak storms as Gulf moisture pushes into the region. With current model placement of the mid/upper high, the southern portion of our area, or even south of Kansas, would be the most likely location of this convective activity next week. As previously mentioned, temperatures this afternoon will once again reach a couple degrees above normal (mid-upper 90s) ahead of the frontal boundary. Behind the boundary, slightly "cooler" temperatures are forecast with highs reaching into the lower 90s for Friday into early next week. As the ridge builds over the region, temperatures will begin to creep warmer through mid week. It continues to appear that the ridge will build far enough north that the true heat dome will remain north of our region. Even so, high temperatures for the middle of next week look to reach into the middle 90s, with upper 90s possible for far south-central Kansas. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A few showers/storms continue to exit southeast KS early this afternoon and should stay south of KCNU unless further development occurs. VFR conditions should prevail for the remainder of the day with a return of storm chances impacting central KS sometime after 04Z or so. These could make it as far east as KICT but will most likely be dissipating as they progress further eastward. Winds will be widelyvariable as low pressure transits the region. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AMD AVIATION...SGS  326 FXUS65 KPIH 091711 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1111 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier weather returns today and beyond with hot conditions likely for the weekend. Many low elevations will reach 100 degrees by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Cool front/dry line arrives today. Still debatable if enough dry air works into the region before convection fires off. The NAM, GFS and HREF keeps things pretty dry, but the HRRR continues to fire off showers and thunderstorms around Arco and propagates them east to near IF and Rexburg by 00z. Decided to add a slight chance for storms in that area, but its likely that if we see anything it will probably be just virga. With that said, we could still see some descent wind gusts from the virga showers if they develop. Dry weather is likely into early next week. Hot conditions arrive over the weekend. Heat risk values are strongly pinging some form of heat products across much of our central and east Idaho and have been consistently doing so. Temps in the upper 90s to around 100 looks very likely for many of our communities. These temperatures will flirt with daily records at many sites. Given the consistency that we've been seeing will roll with a heat watch for Saturday and Sunday. Looks breezy as well over the weekend with wind gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range for many. This hot weather looks like it will continue into Monday, perhaps backing off some on Tuesday. Could see the heat products extending into early next week, but with less confidence at this time. Potential monsoon flow from the south looks to arrive for Wednesday and beyond bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms, added cloud cover, and somewhat lower temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1109 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Widespread VFR with mainly clear skies through Friday with only some few to sct mid level clouds. Winds generally under 10 knots other than some afternoon 10 knots or so at PIH and IDA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 145 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across zone 413 this afternoon. If storms develop, gusty outflow winds are likely. Otherwise very dry weather arrives for the weekend. This will allow hot weather to set in and breezy conditions as well. Depending upon fuel conditions, could see critical fire weather conditions over a large portion of the area. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for IDZ051>068-070-075. && $$ DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...GK FIRE WEATHER...13  356 FXUS66 KMFR 091711 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1011 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...Updated the Aviation and Marine Sections... .AVIATION...09/18Z TAFs...LIFR marine stratus is expected to persist near Brookings through around 19Z, with clear skies to follow this afternoon until around 02Z this evening. Coastal LIFR is expected north of Cape Blanco, and also near Brookings this evening through Friday morning. All other areas will remain VFR through the TAF period with the typical increase in breezes this afternoon and evening. && .MARINE...Updated 800 AM PDT Thursday, July 9, 2026...A thermal trough will maintain gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas into this evening. Very steep, hazardous warning level seas are expected south of Gold Beach, and generally beyond 5 nm from shore and there could be a brief period of northerly gales in this area in the late afternoon and early evening. Conditions improve later tonight through Friday into Saturday morning as the thermal trough weakens and winds ease, but steep seas will continue for all areas south of Cape Blanco through Friday evening. Gusty north winds will increase again for a brief period on Sunday, with steep seas likely south of Cape Blanco. But, improved conditions are expected to follow early next week before the thermal trough strengthens again during the latter half of next week. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 437 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026/ KEY MESSAGES... * Typical summer weather for the remainder of the week: seasonable temperatures and humidities, gusty afternoon winds. * Pattern amplifies Friday into the weekend resulting in tightening pressure gradients and gusty southwest winds (25-35 mph) Friday- Sunday. Gusty winds combined with low RHs bring heightened fire weather concerns (winds strongest/RHs lowest on Saturday). * Thunderstorm pattern early next week. Best chances east of Cascades and across northern California with lesser, but not negligible chances for the West Side. DISCUSSION...Another quiet summer morning underway today. The marine layer is far less extensive this morning and only blankets the coast from Brookings southward. Skies are clear everywhere else. Westerly flow will prevail today under a mostly zonal flow pattern with flat high pressure to the south and a broad trough extending south over the northeastern Pacific from the Gulf of Alaska. This will result in a more stable air mass with thunderstorm potential remaining well east of the area. There will likely be some cumulus buildups today east of the Cascades and across northern California, but no showers are expected today. Generally cooler temperatures are expected into the weekend, so instead of temperatures being 8 to 10 degrees above normal like recent days, high temperatures through the weekend will hover within a few degrees of normal, equating to low 90s West/upper 80s East. The pattern transitions on Friday with high pressure to the south moving eastward into the Great Basin region, then amplifying on Saturday. Meanwhile, relatively strong low pressure off the northern British Columbia Coast digs southward Friday into Saturday, lingering offshore near Seattle through the weekend. This will turn the flow southwesterly again and southwest OR/northern CA will be wedged between these two systems, resulting in tighter pressure gradients. This pattern will bring multiple days of strong, gusty winds to the region Friday through Sunday when gusts of 25 to 35 mph are expected east of the Cascades and across northern California. The air mass in those areas will be more under the ridge influence, while areas west of the Cascades will be more under the trough influence. This will result in much drier air for areas to the east (daytime humidities in the low teens, possibly single digits), and when combined with those 25 to 35 mph gusts, critical fire weather conditions could be possible east of the Cascades Friday through Sunday, most widespread on Saturday. The parent low pressure to the north pushes northeastward on Sunday, but a frontal boundary/energy gets left behind, maintaining tight pressure gradients. Guidance maintains another day of gusty winds (25-30 mph), and although humidities do tick upward some, it could still be another day of elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Meanwhile, strong ridging gets nudged eastward with that trough and the flow will turn more south to southwest heading into the early part of next week. This pattern will bear watching for thunderstorm potential as south to southwesterly flow could push some monsoonal moisture into the region. Much will depend on when/where shortwaves develop and at this juncture, it's too soon to try to pinpoint details. It's also challenging because our region will remain wedged between strong high pressure to the east and incoming troughs from the northwest. The proximity of those troughs could be enough to keep the flow more southwest or even westerly, and the more westerly the flow, the lower the chances for thunder, especially west of the Cascades. Until further details can be sussed out, it currently looks like the best chances for thunderstorms would be across eastern areas on Monday/Tuesday. We'll continue to monitor model trends to see if the eastward shift in the upper level pattern persists, or if thunderstorm chances shift westward. Stay tuned for updates as models hone in on additional details. FIRE WEATHER...Updated at 200 AM Thursday, July 9, 2026... Seasonable temperatures and humidities are expected for the remainder of the week, with critical fire weather concerns increasing Friday and continuing through the weekend. The region will be wedged between strong high pressure to the east and an upper level trough off the eastern Pacific through the weekend, which will result in increased pressure gradients across the area. Strong gusty southwest to west winds (25-35 mph) are expected Friday through Sunday. Daytime humidities will be in the mid to low teens on Friday, and when combined with these gusty winds, critical fire weather conditions are likely across the Modoc and southeastern Fire Weather Zone (FWZ) 624 for Friday afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for this potential. Critical fire weather conditions are expected to peak on Saturday when humidities trend lower (low teens/single digits possible), winds increase some (25-35 mph common, possible up to 40 mph in the windiest locations) and these combined conditions are more widespread across the East Side. Conditions improve slightly on Sunday with wind speeds on the lower end of the spectrum and humidities trend ever so slightly higher. Regardless, critical fire weather conditions are again possible for Sunday as well, so additional watches/warnings will likely be needed through the weekend. A potential thunderstorm pattern is shaping up for the first half of next week as the flow becomes south to southwesterly which could send monsoonal moisture into the region. Latest model guidance has shifted a bit on the overall pattern set up. The region will remain wedged between strong high pressure to the east and incoming troughs from the west/northwest. The proximity of those troughs could be enough to keep the flow more southwest or even westerly, and the more westerly the flow, the lower the chances for thunder, especially west of the Cascades. Until further details can be sussed out, it currently looks like the best chances for thunderstorms would be across eastern areas on Monday/Tuesday. We'll need to monitor the potential for any shortwaves/tropical activity that models try to develop and send our way early next week. On the other hand, however, if models continue this more eastward shift of the incoming troughs/southwest to west flow, we could potentially see an extended period of winds/RH concerns vs thunderstorms. Stay tuned as details become more clear with future model runs. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for ORZ624. CA...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for CAZ285. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning until 2 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. && $$  548 FXUS64 KLZK 091713 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1213 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 140 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 -Temperatures across the state will remain near normal to a few degrees above normal for the next couple of days. -Rain and isolated storm chances will become less widespread, but be present from I-40 northward on Thursday and across northern Arkansas on Friday. -A cold front will dive from the north out of Missouri into Arkansas to finish the out the weekend bringing an increased chance of widespread rain and storms to the Arkansas on Sunday into the day on Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The state of Arkansas will remain under the eastern edge of a H500 ridge through Friday. Into the weekend, a ridge pattern begins to amplify over the Western region of the CONUS, centered over the Four Corners region which will result in northwest flow over Arkansas. Into the next workweek, the center of the ridge becomes fixated over the Northern Plains region of the CONUS with easterly flow overall for the remainder of the period over Arkansas. At the sfc, a warm front will remain draped near the Arkansas/Missouri border keeping respectable POP chances in the forecast through Friday across the northern half of the state. Into the weekend, this feature will move northward into Missouri and stall as a stationary front across central Missouri, but remain in close enough proximity to warrant decent POP chances across the far northern tier of Arkansas. Into the late weekend/upcoming workweek, this feature is progged to become a cold front and dive back southward into Arkansas by Monday. As this transition occurs, increased POP chances will be noted statewide Sunday into Monday. For the remainder of the workweek or the middle of next week, POP chances are expected to lower slightly, but remain present as a few upper lvl disturbances meander over the state to close out the period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Generally VFR conditions expected through the period along with S-SW winds around 7-10 kts with occasional gusts above 15 kts. Isolated TS development is possible through the period, with the highest chances generally across northern portions of the state. Some wind shear will be in place overnight through 10/13z Friday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 78 95 76 91 / 10 20 40 60 Camden AR 76 96 76 93 / 0 0 0 20 Harrison AR 78 94 75 88 / 10 20 30 70 Hot Springs AR 78 95 77 93 / 0 0 10 20 Little Rock AR 79 97 78 93 / 0 0 10 40 Monticello AR 77 96 78 93 / 0 0 0 30 Mount Ida AR 77 93 77 91 / 0 0 10 20 Mountain Home AR 77 93 74 87 / 20 30 40 70 Newport AR 78 96 76 92 / 10 20 30 60 Pine Bluff AR 77 95 77 93 / 10 0 10 40 Russellville AR 79 96 78 93 / 0 10 10 30 Searcy AR 77 96 76 93 / 0 10 10 60 Stuttgart AR 78 96 77 93 / 0 0 10 40 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ016-025-033-034- 045>047-057-065. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...67  399 FXUS64 KMAF 091711 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1211 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1209 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Low chance (10-20%) of isolated storms over higher terrain areas this afternoon. - Warmer than average temperatures persist through Friday, then a more pronounced cooling trend with an increased chance of showers/storms Sunday through early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 126 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Little change in the short term as mid to upper ridging over the Intermountain West continues to provide warm and dry, fairly uneventful weather. Low (less than 15%) shower/storm chances today and tomorrow afternoon, with the greatest risks being lightning, strong winds, and brief heavy rainfall. Rainfall accumulations are expected to remain below a few tenths of an inch due to low RH and PWATs staying below 1.00". Highs 95F-100F, 100F-105F along the Pecos River and Presidio Valley, and 105F-110F for the Big Bend are forecast. While not unseasonably warm, it is still advised to take proper heat precautions if outdoors, drink plenty of water, and remain out of direct sunlight during the hottest part of the day. Accompanying this persistent warm weather will be lee troughing remaining to the west of the forecast area. This means south/southeast winds increasing to the 15 to 20 mph range each afternoon/evening into the overnight will continue to be the story. Dew point temperatures stay in the 50s and 60s F, mid 40s to lower 50s F Presidio Valley into northern Guadalupes with pronounced south/southeast winds even after winds decrease overnight. This means overnight cooling will continue to be limited, resulting in lows in the 70F-75F range, 65F-70F cooler regions of northern Lea County and adjacent foothills to the Marfa Plateau and Trans Pecos, and 60F-65F for the Marfa Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos. Along the Rio Grande, lows will continue to remain in the 75F-80F range. An upper air and near surface pattern change will deliver "cooler" temperatures by Saturday and shower/storm chances areawide by late weekend into early next week. More details on these pattern changes can be found in the Long Term Discussion below. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 126 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A cooling trend is forecast to take shape across the region beginning Saturday as the upper-level ridge transitions from the Four Corners region into the Central Rockies. Saturday is expected to be the warmest day of the extended forecast period with highs ranging from the mid 90s to low 100s for most locations. Upslope flow and weak disturbances in the flow aloft will create a low chance (10-30%) of isolated storms over the higher terrain. Sunday through early next week, easterly to northeasterly flow aloft will return to the region, accompanied by shortwave impulses rounding the periphery of the ridge. As a result, cooler temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s along with increased rain/storm chances are expected areawide. Medium to long range guidance has Precipitable Water values (PWATs) slightly above the 90th climatological percentile per SPC Sounding Climatology, signaling deep layer moisture with this pattern. Ensemble guidance is in agreement with the upper-level ridge becoming more elongated across portions of the Northern High Plains by mid next week, shifting winds aloft easterly to southeasterly. This pattern again favors daily rain/storm chances with cooler than normal temperatures for mid July standards. Lamberson && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions accompanied by breezy south/southeast winds are ahead during the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 74 99 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 74 103 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 73 98 74 96 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 72 99 71 96 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 70 94 69 92 / 0 10 0 0 Hobbs 71 99 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 63 95 62 94 / 0 10 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 74 97 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 73 97 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 73 101 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...94 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...95  554 FXUS64 KLIX 091713 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1213 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1146 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Through the end of the workweek and beginning of the weekend, very normal summer pattern with hot days and scattered to numerous daily showers and thunderstorms expected. Chances of severe weather will be low, but a few storms each day could become strong to severe with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. - Waterspout activity will be possible over the coastal waters, especially in the early morning hours in conjunction with the diurnal cycle. - Heavy rainfall and flash flooding is an increasing concern for early next week as a slow moving frontal boundary approaches from the north. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Sunday) Issued at 1146 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Through the weekend we have upper level conditions reflective of a typical summertime pattern with high pressure stretching from the Atlantic Bermuda high westward to the desert southwest. There are some weaknesses in the northcentral Gulf coast that allow shallow intrusions of lower pressure and weak troughing. At the surface, the Bermuda high extends into the north central Gulf providing some light southerly flow around its western periphery. Daytime highs reach the low to mid 90s and apparent temperatures stay just below the 108 degree theshold for heat headlines, overnight lows hang in the upper 70s giving only slight opportunities for cooling off at night. Convection is governed by sea breeze boundaries and remnant boundaries after intial convection collapses. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1146 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Upper ridging will be centered over the Dakotas and Wyoming Sunday evening, with a weaker ridge near the Bahamas. In between will be a weakness or trough that will be centered near Interstate 40 Sunday evening, just south of Interstate 20 Monday evening, and be near the Louisiana coast Tuesday evening. The upper ridge will eventually head southeast later next week and to Georgia or the Carolinas by next weekend, but that's well beyond the scope of this forecast package. As the trough approaches from the north, precipitable water values near the 75th percentile Sunday afternoon (1.9 inches) will increase to the 90th percentile (2.1 inches) Monday afternoon. Additionally, the trough never really gets off the coast, so any mid level drying looks somewhat less likely to occur, with both the Euro and GFS ensembles holding precipitable water values at least near the 75th percentile. The forecast solutions from the operational global models would signal a wetter (and not as hot) period for Sunday through at least Tuesday, and probably Wednesday. If forecast soundings from the GFS are any indication, convective temperatures for Monday and Tuesday may only be in the middle 80s, which would mean an earlier start to thunderstorm development (before noon) and high temperatures remaining below 90 degrees for several days. Rainfall amounts in a cumulative sense could be fairly significant in the Sunday to Wednesday period, with WPC forecasts currently indicating 3 to 5 inches of rain in that period, with the more favored portion being the southern half of the area. We'll have to see how those trends play out over the next few days. (RW/DSS) && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1146 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions prevail across the area. Convection is present across the area in the afternoon hours, addressed by PROB30 coding, and dissipates into the evening hours as daytime heating wanes. Any local storms could briefly drop conditions to MVFR or IFR due to ceilings and visibility restrictions. && .MARINE... Issued at 1146 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Through the weekend winds maintain a southerly component drifting between SSW and SSE and remain at or less than 10kt. Into the new week and accompanying a passing frontal system the winds switch to generally westerly at or below 10kt. Through the weekend we maintain the diurnal character of the pop-up convection including the chances for waterspouts and locally heavier winds. Accompanying the frontal activity we see a wider coverage of rain offshore, both spatially and temporally. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM....DS AVIATION...DS MARINE...DS  739 FXUS61 KPHI 091717 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 117 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Flood Watch was expanded to include most of New Jersey. The Aviation section is updated for the 18Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening with heavy rain and damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. A Flood Watch was issued for southeast PA, northern DE, and portions of South Jersey. 2) Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday which may linger into Saturday before drier conditions return on Sunday and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening with heavy rain and damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. A Flood Watch was issued for southeast PA, northern DE, and portions of South Jersey. The Flood Watch was expanded to include most of New Jersey. The main concern on will be the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Low pressure approaches from the west and tracks towards the Mid- Atlantic by this evening A mid-level trough will move into the Northeast with some shortwave energy passing through the Delaware Valley, Delmarva, and southern New Jersey. SBCAPE values will be in excess of 1500 J/kg with PWATS from 2-2.5 inches, highest values from the Delaware Valley, including Philadelphia, south into Delmarva. 0-6 km shear will be from 25 to 30 kt. The two main threats from severe weather will be damaging wind gusts and heavy rain leading to localized flash flooding. Given the high PWATs and potential for some periods of training, have gone ahead and issued a Flood Watch for southeast PA, northern Delaware, and portions of South Jersey from noon until Midnight. Some areas within the Flood Watch also saw a good amount of rain lately and while we are still in a drought, the soils may be overwhelmed if some training were to occur over a certain area. Rainfall rates of 1-2" are likely within the Flood Watch area. The Weather Prediction Center has a Slight Risk (2 out of 4) for Excessive Rainfall for southeast Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, the eastern shores of Maryland, and Delaware, and a Marginal Risk (1 out of 4) for the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey. Ended up leaving the rest of Delmarva out of the Watch because of the more rural nature of the landscape and ability to take more rainfall than urban areas. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe weather (2 out of 5) for the Delaware Valley south of Philadelphia, Delmarva, and southern New Jersey, and a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) from around Philadelphia north to Allentown. No changes were made this morning to the Severe Weather Outlook. Although some showers and thunderstorms will fire up over far western portions of the forecast area from noon-2pm, the main timing will be from 3PM to 9 PM across the Delaware Valley, including Philadelphia, the eastern shores of Maryland, Delaware, and southern New Jersey. While showers and thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and localized flash flooding are likely for the northern zones as well, the highest impacts in terms of potential severe weather and flash flooding should be focused generally south of Philadelphia. A warm and muggy night with patchy fog developing Thursday night after showers and thunderstorms come to an end by midnight. Lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday which may linger into Saturday before drier conditions return on Sunday and into early next week. On Friday, another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop out ahead of acold front moving southward into the area. Similarly to Thursday, moisture is anticipated to increase ahead of the front, where PWAT values are progged to be in excess of 1.8 inches. This supports that any given shower or storm will have the ability to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding. As of now, the majority of our forecast area is highlighted in an MARGINAL risk (Level 1/4) for excessive rainfall. Held off on expanding the Flood Watch through Friday due to uncertainty in where the heaviest rainfall will set up today. In terms of the severe weather threat, ML CAPES are expected to reach at least 1000 J/kg with bulk shear values around 30 kt. Given better frontal forcing, there looks to be at least another opportunity for severe weather. As of now, SPC has our entire area highlighted in just a general thunder risk, however some of the MLP guidance indicate higher probabilities especially in terms of damaging winds. It is also worth noting that Friday will be quite sticky outside with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with dew points in the low to mid 70s. This will result in heat indicies in the mid to upper 90s. We may get close to Heat Advisory criteria in some spots, but basis the current forecast, heat indicies are expected to remain just below advisory criteria. There remains a vast amount of uncertainty with how Saturday will pan out as guidance continues to struggle with how quickly the cold front clears the area. Some guidance slows the progression of the front, keeping more in the way of showers around on Saturday, whereas others show a faster progression, yielding mainly dry weather. As mentioned by the previous shift, opted to stay very close to NBM PoPs for this period, which keeps 10-30% PoPs north, with 30-60% PoPs mainly across south Jersey and the Delmarva. Temperatures will mainly be in the 80s. By Sunday and into early next week, guidance is showing an expansive upper level ridge setting up over the northern High Plains. This will yield dry weather and mainly clear skies across the Mid- Atlantic. Temperatures will be around normal for Sunday and Monday, but will swing back above normal by Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of today...SHRA/TSRA with MVFR/IFR conds, with ocnl VSBYs as low as LIFR. SHRA/TSRA will taper off from west to east by 00Z. A general S to SW flow at 5 to 10 kt. High confidence overall, low confidence on timing when any given storm will pass over any given terminal. Tonight...SHRA/TSRA will taper off at KMIV/KACY by 02Z. VFR, becoming MVFR or lower by or after 06Z as BR develops. Light S to nearly calm winds. Low confidence. Friday...Primarily VFR. Another round of SHRA/TSRA will impact the terminals in the late afternoon and at night. W winds 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Friday night...Primarily VFR but sub-VFR conditions likely (60-70%) in the evening with another round of showers and thunderstorms. Saturday...Primarily VFR though cannot rule out a shower or thunderstorm developing. Saturday Night through Monday...VFR. No significant weather. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions expected through Friday. Southwest winds around 10-15 kt expected with seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers and thunderstorms possible (40-60%) on the waters both Thursday afternoon and evening and Friday afternoon and evening. Outlook... Friday Night through Saturday Night...No marine headlines anticipated. Sunday through Sunday Night...SCA conditions possible (20-30%) as seas near 5 feet. Monday...No marine headlines expected. Rip Currents... For today, winds are more southerly, and the moderate swell also becomesmore southeasterly. Southerly flow will be a bit stronger (winds 10 to 20 MPH) and wave heights a bit higher for the Ocean and Monmouth County beaches. This will result in a MODERATE risk for rip currents at these locales. Lower winds and wave heights for the southern Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches will result in a LOW risk for rip currents. For Friday, winds turn southwesterly, and the swell weakens. Thus, this should result in a LOW risk of rip currents for all beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ060-070-071- 101>106. NJ...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ009-010-012>022- 025>027. DE...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Hoeflich/MPS AVIATION...Hoeflich/MPS MARINE...Hoeflich  710 FXUS63 KIWX 091716 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 116 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms are possible this and tonight. A few of these storms may be strong, capable of isolated gusty winds and heavy rain. - Thunderstorms are also possible Friday and Saturday but severe weather is not expected. - Turning hot and dry next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 112 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Agreement between the GFS and ECMWF on slowly bringing a cold front/thermal gradient southward between today and Friday night/Saturday morning would indicate an, at best, marginal severe weather risk with weak wind shear (<30 kts), but ample instability (>2500 J/kg MUCAPE on the NAM) as well as 1000+ J/kg of DCAPE. Trying to track forcing is an issue with weak impulses passing through including a weak positively tilted trough. A weak low level jet (~25 kts) shows itself in MI from this morning into the afternoon and then there's also an attempt to organize a low level jet out of MO overnight. It could be that the MO jet gets cut off and moisture transport fails though. The midday jet around MI appears to be colocated with large scale ascent at times. However, the MO jet is slightly removed from the large scale ascent on the ECMWF potentially contributing to its failure. Two distinct peaks in PWATs around 2 inches or so passing through include during peak heating this afternoon as well as overnight. Sfc dew points exceed 70F while 850 mb dew points exceed 10C. Meanwhile, as the previous shift noted, the better moisture content identified by theta-e is farther west and this appears to slide by to the southwest of the area or just casually graze our southwest this afternoon into overnight. Models are all over the place for Friday with some of the guidance still retaining PoPs across the whole area whereas there is a smattering of guidance keeping things south of US-24/US-30 area. The more southward progression could be possible if a cold pool/outflow boundary sets up from overnight convection. All of this considered, am fine with the marginal risk of severe weather advertised by SPC, which could be aided by cell collisions, differential heating, and the high theta-e airmass. Wind and heavy rain appear to be the main threats along with lightning. With the cold front slowly pushing through, the dew points exceeding 70F and highs exceed 90F in our southeast, this would indicate apparent temperatures in the 90s, at least, for this afternoon. These do appear to slowly trend lower as highs dip back into the 80s with the FROPA. Dew points abate later Friday/Friday night with the FROPA. It is interesting to see that there are still models trying to produce showers in the relative dryness on Saturday. I'm not sold on this, but will include some slight chances for that. The GFS appears out to lunch, but the NAM/ECMWF appear to have a better handle on things, which show the greatest chance during the afternoon Saturday. After Saturday, a high pressure system and mid level ridging stall across the area providing dry weather from Sunday until at least the middle to end of next week (7/15-7/17 time frame) as a backdoor front attempts to come in. It appears to be a sort of MCS pattern with plenty of heat around. 850 mb temps creep above 18C and sfc dew points surpass 70F Tuesday and Wednesday of next week indicating potential heat headlines if enough insolation can be had. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1255 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Scattered showers and storms are developing across the area as a weak front approaches the region. Additional chances for storms extend into the overnight but confidence in timing and coverage remains low. Light southwest windsare expected through the period. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Roller AVIATION...Cobb  728 FXUS65 KBOI 091717 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID Issued by National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1117 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and dry, with breezy afternoon winds through the weekend. - Shower and thunderstorm chances return early next week with the arrival of monsoon moisture. && .SHORT TERM /Through Saturday Night/... Issued 324 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2026 A few degrees of cooling with northwest surface winds are expected today behind Wednesday's weak cold front. Hi-res models indicate storm activity this afternoon should remain south of the Idaho border and east of Banner Summit in central Idaho, but outflows up to 40 mph may travel into the SW Idaho Highlands this evening. Beginning Friday, high pressure across the Desert Southwest is forecast to build north into the N Rockies, introducing a rapid onset of heat as south-southwest flow develops over the forecast area. This flow will generate breezy southwest surface winds across much of SE Oregon and the mountains of SW Idaho Friday afternoon. Latest model guidance places lower valley temperatures around 100 degrees, with mountain valleys in the 80s/90s. Temperatures will remain hot on Saturday, with lower valleys peaking in the upper 90s to 105 degrees. Overnight/morning temperatures will also remain warmer than normal, reducing the opportunity for heat-relief and increasing Heat Risk across the Snake Plain and south to the NV border on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued 324 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2026 Slight cooling is anticipated from west to east on Sunday as a Pacific trough approaches the PNW coast. Temperatures will still remain hot, however, as deep south-southwest flow persists from the ridge dominating to the east. Cloud coverage is forecast to increase Sunday and Monday as mid/high level monsoon moisture makes its way north into the region. Precipitable water values will begin to ramp up significantly by late Monday, reaching 1.00"+ by Tuesday and Wednesday. As a result, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase through mid-week as the influx of moisture continues. While storms may initially be anemic and produce gusty outflows early in the week, storms will evolve into heavy rain producers if PWATs climb near/above 1.00". Max temps will hover at 5-10 degrees above normal through the week. && .AVIATION /18Z Thursday through Friday/... Issued 1117 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2026 VFR. Areas of reduced visibility from wildfire smoke. High density altitude due to heat. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt, with gusts 20-25 kt from KMUO to KTWF/KJER 09/20Z until 10/00Z. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S-W 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR. High density altitude due to heat. Visibility reduced at times by wildfire smoke in foothills N and NE of KBOI. Surface winds: W-N 5-12 kt. Gusts 15-20kt 09/20Z until 10/00Z. Weekend Outlook...VFR. Areas of reduced visibility from wildfire smoke. Isolated convection over central ID mountains Friday. High density altitude due to heat, especially Saturday. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-15 kt Friday through Sunday. Afternoon gusts to 20-30 kt across E Oregon and the Snake Basin in SW Idaho south to the ID/NV border. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....LC SHORT TERM...SH LONG TERM....SH  982 FXUS63 KDDC 091721 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1221 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Weakening upper level ridge will support afternoon highs today ranging from the low 90s north to the upper 90s/near 100 south. - Severe thunderstorms are possible both Thursday and Friday evening, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat especially on Thursday. - Long dry and quiet stretch after Friday expected with seasonably hot highs in the 90s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The synoptic pattern is a primarily zonal pattern aloft with a weak high pressure over the southern corners of the CONUS. Nearer to the surface, weak surface lows are present immediately along the sides of a subtle surface high pressure system in Colorado. Highs today will continue the relatively consistent streak of mostly 90 degree highs similar to the last few days as well as deeper into the forecast period. The forecast focus then shifts to the storm potential tonight. Since the start of the week, models and ensembles have depicted a notable signal for an MCS tonight. CAMs have storms initiating in Colorado around 2-3 PM and congealing into a line around 7 PM just before crossing into Kansas. The elevated nature will nearly eliminate the tornado threat tonight. Shear via modeled soundings are only around 30 KTs with CAPE around 1500 J/kg. More notably, DCAPE is at 2000 J/kg. If these storms come to fruition as forecast, wind gusts of 60-70 mph are expected. Most CAMs have a section of the line becoming concentrated bowing segment at some points in the overnight. The HRRR has it around 11 PM around highway 183, the NAMNST around 11 PM near highway 83, and the WRF-ARW around 9 PM near highway 83. All this to say there is a wide spread of potential outcomes particularly relating to an enhanced bowing segment with the storms. If this materializes, wind gusts with the enhanced segment could exceed 70 mph wind gusts with damaging winds. Severe hail of around an inch is possible, but remains an auxiliary threat to the wind concerns. The line of storms are forecast to reach nearly the entire CWA, although some area very easily could remain dry with breaks in the line or not covering the entire area. The lowest chance for storms are near the Oklahoma border, but storm chances remain above 20%. Storms are forecast to clear out by around 3 AM. Some CAMs have weaker cells developing ahead of the line, but the chances seems scattered and very uncertain relative to the bulk of the storms in the line. These would likely also pose a hail threat if their strength can be maximized. Localized flooding is possible, but the storms are forecast to move fast enough to mitigate widespread flooding. Friday will again be in the upper 80s/90s. Another round of storms are expected Friday night although more limited in coverage and intensity. The NAMNST has the forecast sounding depicting a similar amount of CAPE and shear. There is a lot more CIN expected to be present and provides a failure point for potential storms. These storms are forecast to occur primarily around 10 PM-2 AM with the best chances in far SW Kansas. Even if storms on Thursday overperform, there is enough time on Friday to recover assuming the cap can be broken. Again with these storms the primary threat is strong winds. Continued monitoring for subsidence and the cap will be needed. The rest of the forecast period is forecast to be dry and is backed up by models. The only notable weather is the continued seasonal heat with highs in the 90s. Winds will most be light out of the south/southeast. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Lowered flight conditions are possible with a round of thunderstorms this evening. A line of storms is forecast to push out of Colorado in the early evening and sweep into the TAF sites around 1-3Z and last until around 8-10Z. The exact time frame and intensity still holds some uncertainty, but overall storm probabilities remain high at 60-90%. With the storms, lowered ceilings and lowered visibilities are possible. After the storms pass, light and variable winds will accompany the returning VFR conditions. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KBJ AVIATION...KBJ  960 FXUS63 KTOP 091720 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low chance (10-15%) for isolated showers/storms to redevelop this afternoon with better chances (30-60%) coming overnight along/south of I-70. - Widely scattered showers/storms may linger through Friday, followed by drying conditions into the weekend. - Near average temperatures hold through the weekend, then gradually warm through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 416 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Zonal flow aloft dominates the Central Plains, and VAD wind profilers early this morning show a subtle perturbation moving through the MO River Valley. The LLJ feeding into the forecast area helped to maintain the leading cluster of storms as it moved from southern NE across northeast KS, producing sporadic marginal severe gusts and brief intense rainfall rates (2-2.5"/hr). The veering jet will continue to push these storms east with storms progged to exit the area entirely around sunrise or shortly after, though the strongest winds and heaviest rain are over at this point. For the rest of today, the first challenge will be how far south an outflow boundary will end up from these storms and whether or not it retreats north as an effective warm front this afternoon. If it does come back further north than anticipated, then temperatures could reach the low 90s as far north as I-70. However, a consensus would keep this boundary closer to I-35 or south. This is where a few isolated storms could develop late this afternoon as the inverted trough axis approaches and provides enough convergence for ascent. Inverted-V soundings suggest strong wind gusts would be possible with any of these storms that may develop. Greater chances for storms come late tonight, mainly after midnight with a line or cluster of storms coming from western KS. It remains uncertain how strong they might still be this far east and how much of the area would be impacted. The LLJ is displaced south with the main synoptic boundary south of the area by that time, but there could be enough elevated instability and shear to support marginal severe gusts with storms along the 850mb front. Instability still looks to decrease with time, leading to weakening storms through the night. CAMs are suggesting an MCV may be left behind Friday morning, leading to widely scattered showers and storms lingering in the area. Depending on how long these persist through the day, clouds and rain could keep temperatures cooler. The synoptic boundary looks to hang around just south of the area Friday into Saturday, and another weak perturbation aloft looks to trigger another round of scattered showers and storms Friday night into Saturday morning. This would present a similar setup as tonight with similar storm risks. Once the front finally pushes far enough south to keep dry conditions in our entire area, upper ridging builds across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest early next week. This places us more in easterly flow, which should keep the thermal ridge north of us with slightly lower humidity levels here. So despite temperatures gradually warming through the 90s next week, heat indices may end up staying in the 90s as well. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1214 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Expect VFR conditions through most of the next 24 hours. Several of the CAMs keep the showers and thunderstorms south of the terminals overnight and through the Friday morning. I did keep the prob 30 at KMHK, between 8z-12Z Friday. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Picha AVIATION...Picha  979 FXUS64 KLCH 091721 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1221 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower activity is expected to decrease today and tomorrow as an upper level ridge briefly builds back in. - A weakness redeveloping over the weekend, along with deeper tropical like moisture and a weak surface boundary, will help to increase convection Saturday into next week. - Typical summertime heat can be expected with afternoon max apparent temperatures between 100 and 105 degrees daily with the heat risk at moderate level (2 out of 4.) && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Another seasonal start to the day has unfolded with a few isolated showers and storms ongoing across coastal south LA. Surface high pressure is again providing a light and variable flow overhead, while aloft weak ridging is slowly taking shape as two ridges merge overhead. As ridging takes shape overhead today it will keep somewhat of a cap on afternoon convection but won't completely inhibit storms from forming along the seabreeze this afternoon. Therefore, we will likely see some slight expansion on coverage of what's already ongoing but widespread activity is unlikely today. Otherwise, it looks like another hot and humid afternoon with highs reaching into the low to mid 90s. Weak ridging becomes better established overhead by tomorrow, bringing about another mostly dry and hot day for the end of the work week. Like today, morning showers along the coast can be expected, with minimal expansion in coverage along the seabreeze through peak heating hours in the afternoon. Moving into the weekend, upper ridging begins to lose its hold on the forecast area once again as the center of the ridge shifts off towards the Rockies. At the same time, a weak shortwave dives out of the northern Plains and into the Midwest giving a weak frontal boundary a push south across the eastern CONUS. This, together with the seabreeze/diurnal heating, will result in more widespread afternoon activity each day from Saturday into early next week. The addition of the approaching front will cause POPs to ramp up even further from Sun through Tues as it provides additional support for convection, with POPs then tapering back down slightly for the later half of the week. The increase in convection early next week will tamper afternoon high temps down into the mid to upper 80s on Mon and Tues, which is around 5 degrees below seasonal norms. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Isolated showers and storms will continue along/south of the I-10 corridor through the afternoon however, coverage is not expected to expand quite as much as the last few days. A scattered to broken cloud deck around 3000ft will continue to stream across the region this afternoon, causing some sites to waffle between VFR and MVFR on occasion. This evening into tomorrow, VFR conditions and light winds prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Surface high pressure will remain stretched from the Atlantic into the northern Gulf through the week. This will keep a light south to southwest flow and low seas in place. Isolated to widely scattered shower and storms will be possible each day, with coverage increasing a bit by the late weekend into early next week as another weakness develops aloft. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 No fire weather concerns at this time. Isolated to widely scattered storms are expected today along the sea breeze, however coverage will decrease Thursday and Friday as an upper ridge builds in. Higher rain chances return this weekendinto early next week. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17 AVIATION...17  959 FXUS64 KOUN 091720 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Scattered showers/storms are expected to continue to develop over northern Oklahoma into the morning hours. - Severe weather will be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning, and again Friday afternoon. - Hot and humid conditions expected to continue through the weekend with a risk for heat related illnesses. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this morning, mainly across northern Oklahoma. A few storms may produce gusty winds and small hail, but overall impacts are expected be very low. The more showery activity may reach as far south as the I-40 corridor by sunrise. Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer than on Wednesday, where most of us will get up into the low 100s. Ambient surface moisture will remain in the upper 60s to low 70s through the day, especially across the eastern half of the area. That being said, afternoon heat indices are expected to get up to between 105-109 F across these locations. A heat advisory is in effect from noon to 8 PM for much of Oklahoma. A weak boundary that is expected to stall across northern Oklahoma today, may be the focal point for thunderstorms again this afternoon. Given the moisture in place, gusty winds will be possible with the strongest storms. Bunker && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A more organized line of thunderstorms will move into the area late Thursday night into Friday morning. As these cluster of storms move in, they will be capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts and frequent lightning, along with locally heavy rainfall. There is a little more uncertainty with the position of the frontal boundary on Friday, which will be largely dictated by convection early Friday morning. This boundary will be the focal point for additional thunderstorms throughout the day. A few of these thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. Another warm day is in store on Friday with afternoon temperatures reaching the triple digits for most of us. A few perturbations within the mid-level flow pattern will help support additional thunderstorm chances through Saturday across much of the area. A few stronger storms may be capable of small hail and gusty winds. Bunker && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Temperatures through the latter half of the weekend into early next week will be 5-10 degrees cooler than what we will see over the next few days. A mid-level ridge across the Desert Southwest will shift to the north, and move into the central and high Plains. Across our area, we will see mostly dry conditions and a warm up back into the mid to upper upper 90s for the latter half of the week. Bunker && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A few isolated storms are possible this afternoon (mainly north of I- 40), but confidence is too low for mention in TAFs. Storms will be possible again overnight across northern Oklahoma (prob30 at KWWR for this possibility). Any storms that develop today and tonight will be capable of lightning and gusty/erratic winds. Otherwise, VFR conditions with breezy south to southwest winds this afternoon, diminishing overnight and becoming gusty again tomorrow. Some marginal low level wind shear is possible toward morning, but confidence is too low for mention in TAF. Day && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK80 100 79 97 / 0 10 10 30 Hobart OK 78 100 77 99 / 0 0 0 20 Wichita Falls TX 79 100 78 99 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 74 99 73 98 / 30 20 40 10 Ponca City OK 77 95 76 93 / 20 20 40 30 Durant OK 80 98 80 96 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ006>008-011>013- 017>020-023>032-039>043-045>048-050>052. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...13 SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...14  799 FXUS64 KSHV 091719 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1219 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - High humidity values combined with highs in the low to middle 90s will result in heat indices above 105 degrees for portions of northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma, and southwest Arkansas this afternoon. A Heat Advisory will be in effect from noon through 8 PM. - Quiet and dry weather will continue through the end of the week, with areawide highs in the low to middle 90s. - Showers and storms are expected to return this weekend, continuing through midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1142 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The ArkLaTex is sandwiched between an upper-ridge extending from southern California eastward into Texas and a weak trough across the Texas coast into north Louisiana and Mississippi. The ridge will allow for sufficient subsidence to drive temperatures into the mid 90s this afternoon across the ArkLaTex. Dewpoint values may be slow to mix across the I-30 corridor allowing for afternoon heat index values to exceed 105 degrees this afternoon. Thus a Heat Advisory is in effect from noon through 8 PM. Otherwise, the upper-trough may allow for enough instability to spark a few showers and thunderstorms across portions of north Louisiana this afternoon. Upper-trough across the northern gulf to gradually lift north on Friday allowing for convection to develop along the seabreeze boundary with a few showers and thunderstorms possible across portions of Deep East Texas and north Louisiana. On Saturday, the lingering upper-trough across the mid-Mississippi River valley becomes more dominant across the ArkLaTex. Instability associated with the trough combined with a northward surge of moisture from a weakness in the Gulf of America will lead to increasing rain chances areawide. Upper-level high pressure to become firmly established across the northern plains late in the weekend into early next week bringing an easterly upper-flow pattern to the ArkLaTex. An area of low pressure is forecast to retrograde along the southern periphery of the ridge across the Ohio River Valley into Arkansas and eventually into Texas and Oklahoma by midweek allowing for an unsettled weather pattern characterized by periods of widespread rain each day. The added instability will also provide sufficient mixing to limit afternoon temperatures to the upper 80s to lower 90s. /05/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 451 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions prevailing just before sunrise this morning and those conditions should continue through the daytime hours and overnight tonight as well. Just some thin cirrus being observed across the eastern half of our airspace, remnants of late night convection across SC/SE AR. Should see developing cu field through the day across our airspace but we shouldn't have to deal with much if any convection unlike previous days. Stronger low level pressure gradient in place today which should result in SSE to SSW winds sustained near 10kts areawide with some stronger gusts possible across our NE TX terminals. 13 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. /05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 78 95 78 94 / 0 0 0 20 MLU 77 97 78 96 / 0 0 10 20 DEQ 76 95 76 93 / 0 0 0 20 TXK 78 97 78 96 / 0 0 0 10 ELD 77 95 77 94 / 10 0 0 20 TYR 78 96 78 96 / 0 0 0 10 GGG 77 96 78 96 / 0 0 0 10 LFK 76 95 77 94 / 0 10 10 40 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059-070. LA...None. OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...13  010 FXUS61 KBTV 091722 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 122 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 249 AM EDT Thursday... Slightly better model agreement has lent some confidence to increase rainfall amounts near the International Border, and along the central Greens in Vermont. Localized heavy rain will be possible today due to the presence of semi-training thunderstorms. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 249 AM EDT Thursday... 1. Scattered showers with isolated to scattered embedded thunderstorms expected today into tonight. Localized heavy rain will be possible with any thunderstorm activity. 2. Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms early next week with a warming trend as well. && .DISCUSSION... As of 249 AM EDT Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1: While there is a possibility of some localized fog this morning, unlike yesterday, coverage will be far less than yesterday, and will be confined to the Connecticut River Valley, generally around sunrise, if any fog does form. Into the daylight hours today, a cold front currently across the Great Lakes will slowly slide eastward towards our CWA. The front will become quasi-stationary by midday today, setting up along or just north of the International Border, oriented west to east. Along the front, weak frontogenesis will help limit the strength of the front, and overall hazards. A pre-frontal trough will slide south of the boundary and help produce some showers and thunderstorms focused across northern New York and northwestern Vermont through this evening. Good instability will be hard to achieve this afternoon with plenty of expected convective debris from the west. That said, modest instability around 500- 1500J/kg should accompany the initial shortwave helping to develop some isolated to scattered thunderstorms. As the first round of showers and thunderstorms exists this evening, a brief lull in the Champlain Valley will follow until closer to midnight tonight. Showers will continue to linger across the St. Lawrence Valley however. Between midnight and sunrise Friday, the cold front will begin to slide south through the region, with a resurgence of shower and possible thunderstorm activity. Precipitation will be mainly focused over central and northern Vermont overnight. Stronger storms continue to look unlikely today due to poor mid level lapse rates and weaker shear to around 30-35 KTs. The severe threat will be mainly conditional on late morning to early afternoon shower activity, and will likely favor weak small bowing segments given skinny CAPE profiles. If any storms were to become stronger, damaging winds would be the main threat. Moisture content will be the main concern, albeit still low concerns, with this system. Storms will follow the mean flow vector which could lead to some isolated training cells over northern New York. Pwats will be around 1.5-2" across much of northern New York, and northwestern Vermont in addition to deep warm layer cloud depths. Given recent rain overperformers with similar water profiles, have increased the rainfall amounts slightly up, which has followed some trends in the CAMs over northern New York and the central Greens. Total rainfall between a quarter inch to half an inch is expected for most areas north of US-4, with locally higher in the northern St. Lawrence Valley and central Greens from thunderstorm activity. As we near July 10th, and with the potential for some brief training storms today, we wanted to say this event is not expected to be anywhere near the flooding potential of recent years. While localized heavy rains will be possible, widespread or damaging flooding potential is not expected. Showers look to be progressive and should not sit over any one area even if multiple rounds of showers are possible. As the cold front continues to slide south into Friday morning, some lingering showers are possible in southern Vermont, with perhaps some sprinkles and light showers until midday Friday. Behind the front, cooler and drier northerly air will help temperatures fall to the mid 70s to low 80s with dewpoints near 50 by Saturday afternoon. Some fog may be possible in the usual river valleys Friday night due to recent rains and clearing skies. KEY MESSAGE 2: Ridging will build into the Northern Plains early next week while an upper trough exits to our east. This will place northern NY and New England under northwest flow. Models continue to indicate a couple of weak fronts/surface troughs to ride through this northwest flow and cross our region. However, timing varies quite a bit from model and run to run, leading to considerable uncertainty. Both moisture and warmth will increase through this period, with highs approaching 90F and dewpoints rising into the 60s. With this in mind, any thunderstorms could be strong if any boundaries push across the region during peak heating. The exact timing is difficult to pinpoint this far out though, especially given the differences in model solutions, so have stayed with NBM/WPC forecast for now, with 25-40% PoPs each afternoon. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 18Z Friday...A few small showers have begun to develop in our area. The primary line of instability is approaching Massena as of 18z. The front will move to the south and east later in the evening. Most of the storms will stay in the northern half of our CWA, with less activity south of Washington County. A few thunderstorms could reach severe criteria, and could reduce visibility during the most intense times. After the shower activity dwindles, patchy fog will develop as some moisture will become trapped near the surface. The rain totals won't be enough for widespread or dense fog. At this time, we anticipate primarily mvfr visibilities overnight. Outlook... Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig DISCUSSION...Neiles/Danzig AVIATION...Langbauer  034 FXUS63 KDLH 091723 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable temperatures today and Friday before a notable warm up through the weekend with increasing humidity. Potentially dangerous heat and humidity is possible Sunday, Monday, and into early next week. - Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday. An isolated thunderstorm Friday afternoon and evening could be strong with brief gusty winds and small hail. - Minimal precipitation in the extended forecast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A fairly unremarkable summer day is in store for today, as surface high pressure meanders across the region. We could see some patchy dense fog this morning, especially near Lake Superior, which should burn off with visibility improving through the morning. Afternoon highs in the 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Friday, a cold front from a weak surface low to our north is expected to pass from northwest to southeast through the day. We could see some precipitation in north-central Minnesota as early as Friday morning with this disturbance, if overnight convection in the Dakotas can hold itself together. Otherwise, generally expected some widespread scattered rain showers and thunderstorms to develop through the day, peaking in coverage and intensity Friday afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a possible 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE with 30-40kts of bulk shear. If storms are able to develop, there's a chance that some of them could be on the spunkier side for north-central and NE MN bringing brief gusty winds, a quick downpour, small hail, and frequent lightning. Anyone with outdoor plans should keep an eye to the sky Friday. As that disturbance keeping trucking south and east, it may be able to spur a little showery activity through the day Saturday for the North Shore and NW WI, but chances are fairly low (15-25%) at this time. Sunday and into next week, models are in very good agreement that a robust upper level high will move into the central CONUS which should drive the heat and humidity up across the Northland. Model guidance is suggesting widespread temperatures in the 80s with several days of widespread 90s possible Sunday and Monday. This could come along with dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s. Heat headlines may be needed. With this set-up, any precipitation chances would likely stem from ridge-running disturbances that can bend the flow a bit at the northern edge of the upper level high to push a disturbance through. Global model guidance suggests that the next best chance for that would be sometime early to mid next week, maybe in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe, but confidence, and PoPs, are low. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions with light and variable winds expected through the TAF period. There are low chances of light fog early Friday morning, mainly at DLH and HYR. Confidence is too low to include at this time. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 251 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A light onshore lake breeze is expected today, with some afternoon gusts of 10-15 knots possible for the Twin Ports and Apostle Islands to Chequamegon Bay. While no headlines are expected, small craft users shouldn't be surprised to have a little northeast chop to work with (less than 1 foot) this afternoon, which should die down quickly into the evening. Widespread marine dense fog is expected this morning, but model guidance is in decent agreement that it should pull back away from the coasts into the open water during the day. It may return once again overnight into Friday morning. A mostly light northeast wind is expected across Western Lake Superior Friday, which will once again lead to some less-than-one-foot chop in the afternoon, but nothing hazardous. Some rain showers and thunderstorms may be able to develop Friday afternoon and evening, moving from northwest to southeast across the lake. An isolated thunderstorm or two could become strong with brief gusty winds, a quick downpour, small hail, and frequent lightning. Very isolated shower and thunderstorm development is possible again Saturday, but less likely than Friday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 251 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Light northerly winds expected today with no precipitation. Afternoon dewpoints have trended downwards with high temperatures in the low 80s, making for a dry day today. Afternoon RH of 25-40% is expected across the Northland, with some locally especially dry spots near the Canadian border dropping below 25%. Friday, southerly winds return with some gusts of 10-15mph possible in the afternoon. This should bring with it some improved humidity (afternoon RH 35- 50%) and a 20-40% chance for some scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Northland, most likely Friday afternoon and evening. Any accumulations would be fairly light, a couple hundredths to a couple tenths. Temperatures warm through the weekend, but dewpoints in the 60s remain, so afternoon RH should fairly consistently drop into the 35-45% range, with the chance for some particularly dry spots to reach 30%. Some breezier southwest winds are possible Sunday for north-central Minnesota. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Levens AVIATION...HA MARINE...Levens FIRE WEATHER...Levens  046 FXUS64 KMOB 091723 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Heat indices remain in the 100 to 107 range each afternoon through the end of the week. - Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue each afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning can be expected with any storms. - A Moderate risk of rip currents will return for all area beaches Friday night through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1253 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The upper trough extending from the Ohio Valley to the Lower Mississippi Valley will gradually deamplify as it moves slowly eastward through tonight. An upper ridge over Florida, a small portion of the southeast states, and the eastern Gulf will expand northward on Friday to fill the void as a series of weak shortwaves pass over the Ohio Valley. The upper ridge will get nudged southward over the weekend as a stronger positively tilted upper trough exits the Middle Mississippi Valley and moves slowly southeastward, eventually settling along to the Eastern Seaboard to the Northern Gulf as a large upper high builds over the central CONUS. The combination of the upper trough and a weak surface low pressure area reflected in the lower levels over our region will result in an erratic light wind flow pattern at multiple levels, but there is still a small chance of a backdoor cool front slipping into our area from the northeast late Monday night. The diurnal pattern continues through the near term with a 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon, followed by a 20-40% chance on Friday as seabreezes push inland. Rain chances will increase over the weekend with scattered to numerous coverage on Saturday and numerous to widespread coverage on Sunday. Looking into early next workweek, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday followed by numerous coverage on Tuesday. As with all summertime convection, instances of stronger storms with frequent lightning, gusty surface winds and locally heavy downpours can be expected. High temperatures the rest of the week will average just above normal, ranging from 90-95 degrees. Lows will be about 4 to 9 degrees above normal, with middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the coast. With surface dewpoints mostly ranging from 73 to 77 degrees, maximum apparent temperatures (heat indices) should range from 100-107 degrees with isolated short duration instances as high as 110 degrees. Cooler high temperatures will occur through the first half of next week with the increase in cloud coverage an rain chances. /22 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Predominate VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Isolated to scattered convection focused closer to the coast midday/early afternoon will spread inland by mid to late afternoon. These storms could cause brief reductions to MVFR/IFR. Storms are expected to quickly diminish this evening. South to southwest winds of 5-10 kts will diminish and becoming very light tonight. 34/JFB && .MARINE... Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A light to occasionally moderate generally southerly flow prevails through Saturday, becoming southwesterly Sunday and westerly by early next week. Seas will remain generally 2 feet or less through Friday, building to 2 to 3 feet by the weekend. MM/25 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  015 FXUS65 KABQ 091722 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1122 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1103 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - A low to moderate risk of flash flooding exists on area burn scars each day from daily afternoon thunderstorms. - A low risk of severe storms exists Thursday and Friday across far northeast NM, mainly in Union County. - Highs in the 90s to low 100s result in a moderate to locally major heat risk across lower elevations, especially for those sensitive to heat, and without adequate cooling or hydration. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 208 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The monsoon moisture plume draped from southwest to northeast over NM this morning will rotate clockwise today as a dry subtropical ridge builds east into AZ and an inverted trough moves west from south TX. A 60kt speed max on the northern periphery of the upper ridge will force an impressive dry intrusion into northwest NM this afternoon. Dry lightning strikes from Wednesday may lead to new fire starts today as single digit humidity and breezy northwest winds develop this afternoon. These dry northwest winds will also help to force temps above 100F around the Four Corners so a Heat Advisory has been issued. Meanwhile, showers and storms are likely to develop along the central mt chain then move southeast into the eastern plains thru this evening. Falling PWATs over much of the region will increase the chance for showers and storms with gusty winds and little to no rainfall, especially along and west of the central mt chain. Sufficient moisture, instability, and shear over far northeast NM ahead of the approaching speed max will allow a few storms to become strong as they move across northeast NM. The monsoon high will become more well-defined near the Four Corners Friday while low level moisture remains scant over the northwest half of NM. Another day of dry northwest breezes will help to force max temps above 100F around the Four Corners and the middle and lower RGV. Another Heat Advisory is likely, including the ABQ metro Friday. The upper level speed max from today will be exiting the Front Range Friday and help to assist with storm development over northeast NM. A couple more strong storms are possible. Models have been consistent forcing a moist outflow boundary from these storms southwest across all of eastern NM Friday night. A moderate gap wind is possible as NBM75th percentile gusts average 35 to 45 mph from near Santa Fe to the ABQ metro Friday night. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 208 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The moist outflow boundary from Friday night will help to set the stage for greater coverage of storms along and east of the central mt chain Saturday. The monsoon high will strengthen to near 598dm over central CO and allow steering flow to become more north-south over NM. A 40kt jet forming on the eastern edge of the upper level high will also provide broader ascent over eastern NM. Meanwhile, mid level deformation will be increasing over southeast NM as the inverted trough continues moving west from TX. A noteworthy uptick in storms with locally heavy rainfall is expected as PWATs rise above normal and model instability is impressive along and east of the central mt chain. The chances are increasing for a Flood Watch scenario in the Ruidoso area Saturday. These storms will force another moist outflow boundary west across the RGV into more of western NM for Sunday. Forecast confidence decreases by Sunday given uncertainties in how the inverted trough dampens into the broader synoptic circulation evolving over the southwest CONUS. The upper level ridge will build to near 599dm over WY and the Dakotas while an upper level shortwave off the Baja moves north toward SoCal. This pattern will force a shift to deep layer east-southeast flow over the entire southwest CONUS early next week. Rich moisture will be deepening over the region but a large dry intrusion above 500mb may limit convection over much of central and eastern NM Monday thru Wednesday. Western and southern NM stand the best chances for showers and storms at this time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1103 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Today's afternoon thunderstorms will favor development over the Sangre de Cristo's moving E/SE, slow-moving off the Sacramento Mts and southwestern mountains. Localized MVFR with gusty and erratic winds, lightning, and rainfall will accompany any of these cells. Drier air will push in and shut down thunderstorm chances for the most part in northwestern NM, including KFMN and KGUP, although a few light virga showers are likely to be around KGUP. Gusty and erratic winds are more likely to push into KSAF-KABQ- KAEG again late this afternoon and early evening. Thunderstorms moving E off the Sangre de Cristo's will have chance to become strong to severe b/w KRTN and KCAO, with a batch of modest showers and thunderstorms trying to make it all the way to KROW and KCVN by the late evening. Conditions calm and clear out overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 208 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Dry lightning strikes over northwest NM Wednesday evening may lead to new fire starts as a few hours of near critical fire weather are expected around the Four Corners today. Several hours of single digit humidity are expected with northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph and ERC values >90th percentile. Meanwhile, storms with small footprints of wetting rainfall will develop along and east of the central mt chain this afternoon. Storm motion will be erratic toward the south and east around 10 to 20 mph. Any storms across central NM will be dry with strong outflow winds and little to no rainfall. A similar scenario is in store Friday but with lighter winds across northwest NM and fewer storms overall. The exception will be northeast NM where a few strong storms are possible. These storms will force a moist boundary westward to the central chain Saturday. There will be greater coverage of storms with wetting rainfall along and east of the central mt chain Saturday afternoon. The risk of burn scar flooding will increase in the Ruidoso area. Outflow from this activity will force low level moisture farther west toward the AZ border Sunday with increasing storm chances for southern and western NM into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 98 62 99 61 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 94 48 94 48 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 92 59 93 59 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 93 58 95 55 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 90 59 91 58 / 5 5 0 0 Grants.......................... 94 58 95 57 / 20 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 90 60 92 60 / 5 5 0 0 Magdalena....................... 90 65 93 66 / 50 10 20 10 Datil........................... 88 61 90 62 / 30 10 10 5 Reserve......................... 96 55 96 56 / 20 10 40 20 Glenwood........................ 100 59 99 60 / 40 20 40 10 Chama........................... 86 49 88 49 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 89 65 92 66 / 40 0 5 0 Pecos........................... 91 58 92 59 / 10 0 10 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 88 56 88 56 / 30 0 0 5 Red River....................... 78 49 79 48 / 30 0 5 5 Angel Fire...................... 83 36 83 37 / 20 05 5 Taos............................ 91 53 92 54 / 20 0 0 0 Mora............................ 87 54 87 55 / 30 0 20 20 Espanola........................ 96 61 97 62 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 91 64 93 65 / 10 5 5 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 94 61 96 62 / 20 5 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 98 70 98 71 / 10 5 0 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 99 67 100 67 / 10 5 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 101 65 102 67 / 10 5 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 100 68 100 69 / 10 5 0 5 Belen........................... 101 65 102 66 / 10 10 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 100 67 101 68 / 10 5 0 5 Bosque Farms.................... 100 64 102 65 / 10 5 0 5 Corrales........................ 101 67 101 68 / 10 5 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 100 65 102 66 / 10 5 0 5 Placitas........................ 96 68 98 69 / 10 5 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 100 67 100 68 / 10 5 0 5 Socorro......................... 102 71 103 72 / 20 10 10 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 93 64 93 64 / 10 5 10 10 Tijeras......................... 93 63 95 64 / 10 5 5 10 Edgewood........................ 95 60 96 60 / 10 5 5 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 96 56 97 57 / 10 5 5 5 Clines Corners.................. 90 58 91 58 / 20 10 10 10 Mountainair..................... 94 61 95 61 / 20 10 10 5 Gran Quivira.................... 92 63 94 63 / 20 20 10 10 Carrizozo....................... 95 68 96 68 / 20 20 10 10 Ruidoso......................... 87 63 86 62 / 40 20 40 10 Capulin......................... 87 53 85 53 / 60 20 50 40 Raton........................... 91 53 91 53 / 50 10 40 30 Springer........................ 93 55 93 55 / 50 5 30 30 Las Vegas....................... 90 56 90 57 / 50 5 20 20 Clayton......................... 95 61 92 61 / 40 30 50 50 Roy............................. 91 59 90 59 / 30 10 20 40 Conchas......................... 100 66 100 65 / 20 20 20 40 Santa Rosa...................... 96 64 98 64 / 30 20 5 20 Tucumcari....................... 101 69 101 67 / 20 30 5 50 Clovis.......................... 100 68 98 67 / 0 20 0 30 Portales........................ 100 70 99 69 / 0 20 0 30 Fort Sumner..................... 100 70 100 69 / 10 20 0 20 Roswell......................... 102 72 103 72 / 0 20 0 10 Picacho......................... 97 66 96 66 / 20 20 20 10 Elk............................. 94 64 92 63 / 50 10 40 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...24  156 FXUS61 KPBZ 091725 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 125 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Flood Watch was issued for areas south of I-70, as heavy rain potential for this afternoon has increased in this area. A further slight increase to precipitation probabilities was made for Saturday. Little change was made to the forecast from Sunday on, when dry and warmer weather begins to arrive. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Flood Watch issued south of I-70 where most heavy rain potential is expected; low potential of strong downburst gusts 2) Unsettled pattern continues through Saturday, with periodic showers and thunderstorms 3) Mainly dry and warm Sunday into next week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A shortwave trough will continue to track across the Upper Ohio Valley and the Appalachians through this afternoon. In the wake of overnight/early morning showers and thunderstorms, more activity has formed mainly south of Pittsburgh, particularly across northern West Virginia. Additional development is likely into the afternoon, with lift supported by the shortwave as well as the right exit region of an upper jet to our northeast. This rain will occur in an environment characterized by deep moisture (1.8-1.9 inch precipitable water), around 1000 J/kg of mixed-layer CAPE and weak shear. Given the lack of flow and insufficient DCAPE, the severe wind threat is judged to be very low. The main threat will continue to be heavy rainfall, given the above parameters and favorably saturated soundings with deep warm cloud depths, promoting efficient rainfall. Have already issued a Flood Watch for flash flooding for much of the area south of I-70 through 10 PM, and a Flash Flood Warning is in effect for portions of northern West Virginia. Additional rain of 1-2", perhaps falling in 1-2 hours, with peaks of 3" appear possible given HREF max precip potential plots. More isolated activity to the north of the Flood Watch should provided only very isolated heavy rainfall totals. DCAPE is also a little better in this area, so a few mostly sub-severe downburst wind gusts may be possible. Most available guidance shows mainly isolated activity at best during the overnight period with the loss of heating and the departure of the shortwave. However,given potential lingering boundaries from daytime activity and the events of the past few nights, we cannot rule out a localized instance or two of heavy rainfall prior to sunrise Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2... The next shortwave will ride along the Ohio Valley through tonight and arrive in our region towards sunrise on Friday. Also, a surface boundary is forecast to drift into our region from the north. This should lead to greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms from midday into the evening hours. Another Flood Watch may be necessary, this time for a larger area, as PWATs and instability values will be similar to today. Increased flow aloft should result in a slightly faster storm motion, and with 0-6km shear of around 25 knots, there is slightly more potential for convective organization and strong to severe wind gusts. The boundary may stall at least briefly in the general vicinity of the Mason-Dixon Line Saturday afternoon and evening, with a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms. This may keep at least a localized threat for additional heavy rainfall totals and flooding in areas south of I-70. KEY MESSAGE 3... The boundary should get a push from a northeast CONUS shortwave Saturday night, allowing the front to clear the area and shift flow aloft to a northwesterly direction by Sunday. A period of dry weather is forecast from Sunday into early next week as surface high pressure takes control. Temperatures will be on the rise as well, as a strong ridge builds eastwardfrom the central CONUS. At this time, heat levels are not expected to match those of last weekend, but max temps in the upper 80s to around 90 are possible come Tuesday/Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... General VFR conditions will prevail through tonight, but scattered showers and thunderstorms will redevelop this afternoon primarily from Pittsburgh on south as another shortwave crosses. Embedded heavy rain with PWAT values >1.5" and tall, skinny CAPE profiles will result in periodic but impactful visibility restriction to a mile or less akin to observations from this morning in similar conditions. Included PROB30 for TSRA for most airports north of the I-70 corridor, with a TEMPO mention to the south where more coverage is expected. Some development off of the lake breeze could impact FKL/DUJ, but drier air up that way may inhibit updrafts from getting very tall. Nonetheless, also have PROB30s there. Elsewhere outside of precip, VFR diurnal cu will prevail with 5-10 knot west-southwest wind. Convection should wane by evening as the shortwave axis exits to the east, though some hi-res guidance maintains widely scattered showers overnight ahead of yet another shortwave progged to cross on Friday, so for now kept VCSH mention in for the overnight period. Showers and storms, likely more widespread, develop again on Friday focused along a convergence axis with a southward moving boundary and shortwave support. The stronger storms, again, will bring periodic restrictions in TSRA with heavy rain and gusty wind potential. The most likely timeframe falls just outside the current 24 hour TAF period, so have only included mention at the tail end of the PIT TAF for now. Outlook... Shower and thunderstorm chances continue Saturday as a surface front becomes stationary near or south of a ZZV-MGW corridor. Generally dry weather and VFR should return Sunday and Monday as high pressure builds in. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for PAZ031-075-076. OH...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for OHZ059-068-069. WV...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for WVZ003-004-012- 021-509>514. && $$ DISCUSSION...CL AVIATION...MLB  151 FXUS61 KRNK 091725 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 125 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to forecast. Seasonal heat and humidity expected into the upcoming weekend with scattered mainly afternoon and evening thundershowers. && .KEY MESSAGES... Key Message 1: Scattered storms again by early afternoon, lingering through this evening. Key Message 2: scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms expected through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Scattered storms again by early afternoon, lingering through this evening. Seasonally hot and humid condition are present across the forecast area. A stationary front remains draped over the area with a weak shortwave trough passing across WV. These features in combination with the heating of the day will aid in the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms over eastern WV/western VA, with storms tracking eastward through early evening. Sufficient westerly flow aloft and moderate CAPE values will result in scattered damaging winds but risk for severe storms looks marginal for our forecast area where storms are expected to be disorganized. Farther north into NoVA, wind fields support better organization up that way. And for areas farther south into NC the westerly wind may actually result in demise of thermal cells due to downslope flow. In general will maintain best chance for precip across our WV counties and along and north of highway 460 in VA...fading to just isolated pops along and south of the VA/NC border. Main hazard from anything that develops will be damaging wind gusts. DCAPE values are expected to be above 1000 j/kg east of the Blue Ridge, so this should drive some healthy downdraft winds. As for excessive rainfall, PWATs are still at or above 1.60 so rain efficiency is still good, but due to faster storm movement, mean wind of 20-25 kts, looking at a lower residence time with respect to any individual storm cell. As such, not expecting much of a flood threat unless there is training of storm cells. Passage of short wave and loss of daytime heating should lead to diminishing activity after sunset. Look for stratus and fog for the mountain valleys overnight. With stronger westerly flow aloft, do not expect stratus to be as impactful for the foothills and piedmont. Key Message 2: Scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms expected through the weekend. Current quasi-stationary front is expected to wash out and lose its identity. A more bonafide surface cold front approaching from the Great Lakes Friday will trigger increased coverage of showers and storms for the weekend, with the front eventually passing south of the region Sunday leading to somewhat drier conditions for early next week. Models ensembles indicate some lingering cloud cover and showers across the southern CWA Monday, but overall the trend is still for a few days of cooling and drying before we heat back up toward the end of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected through sunset with greatest coverage north of the Roanoke valley, or north of a BLF-BCB-ROA-LYH line. Any storm that develops or passes near any terminals have the potential for gusty, erratic winds, heavy rain, occasional lightning, and temporary reduction of visibility. Storms are expected to dissipate after sunset with development of mountain valley fog and stratus after midnight. Wind fields may be strong enough to prevent fog at ROA, LYH, and DAN. For Friday, expecting another day of scattered mainly afternoon and evening storms. Forecast confidence is high in the overall pattern, low to moderate in storm coverage. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Scattered, showers and thunderstorms are forecast through the upcoming weekend with greatest coverage during the afternoon and evening. Heavy downpours, gusty winds, and sub-VFR conditions are all possible in any of the stronger storms. Patchy fog is also likely during the overnight periods, especially where significant rainfall occurred during the evening before. Any fog will burn off quickly after 13Z daily. Drier conditions are expected for early next week. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PM AVIATION...PM  134 FXUS63 KILX 091725 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Damaging Wind Threat (This Afternoon - Friday): Scattered afternoon thunderstorms bring a chance of localized 60-mph damaging wind gusts across central and southeast Illinois. - Localized Flash Flooding (Tonight - Weekend): Heavy, torrential downpours bring a chance of localized flash flooding with rainfall totals exceeding 2 inches, centered primarily across southeast Illinois. - Heat Returns (Next Week): There is increasing confidence in a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions that grip the area starting Monday, July 13. && .UPDATE... Issued at 911 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Regional radar mosaic shows an MCV across north central Missouri, on the back side of a diminishing convective complex, generally edging eastward. Morning high-res models generally show this MCV moving into west central Illinois just after midday. This is expected to trigger renewed thunderstorm development around mid afternoon, as surface CAPE's rise to around 1500 J/kg or so. Main focus for activity continues to be in areas near/south of I-72. Latest HRRR soundings continue to show an inverted-V signature, suggesting damaging winds will be the main concern. No change was made in the recent SPC Day1 convective outlook, highlighting a level 2 risk south of a Taylorville to Paris line, and this still seems reasonable for our area. Forecast was recently updated to reflect the latest PoP trends through tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Synopsis... An active, mesoscale-driven summer pattern is unfolding across the region today, characterized by high convective uncertainty but a conditional threat for both isolated severe weather and localized flash flooding. High-amplitude ridging takes over by early next week, signaling a transition toward a much hotter and drier regime. Today and Tonight... Early morning observations track a pair of weakening Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) upstream, situated over eastern Iowa and eastern Kansas. Guidance generally agrees that convective- enhanced mid-level shortwaves (MCVs) tied to these systems will shift east-southeastward into the Mid-Mississippi Valley this afternoon, dragging a surface cold front along with them. Short- term models diverge significantly, however, regarding afternoon convective initiation near the decaying MCVs and how far south the surface front will progress. In the capped scenario, depicted by the HRRR and RAP, a stable layer will keep the environment weakly capped through the afternoon, suppressing widespread storms over central Illinois and shifting the primary axis of uncapped instability toward southeast Missouri and southern Illinois (south of Interstate 70) through late afternoon. Conversely, a competing narrative illustrated by the NSSL WRF and ARW offer a more uncapped and moderately unstable environment ahead of the front and beneath the MCV. If this more aggressive camp verifies, 1500-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE will foster more widespread convective coverage across central Illinois. Although deep-layer flow remains modest, modeled soundings reveal low-level inverted-V profiles and substantial dry-air entrainment for precipitation loading. This indicates a localized threat for damaging winds with any robust updrafts that can mature. Ultimately, the verification of these scenarios might depend on morning cloud cover trends over central Illinois; a persistent cirrus shield would greatly limit afternoon thunderstorm development. Regarding the overnight hydro potential, model solutions remain split on the front's evening position, which directly impacts how far north the low-leveljet (LLJ) axis will extend overnight. Taking an ensemble approach, the HREF stalls the surface boundary near the Interstate 72 corridor tonight, keeping the core of the LLJ over far southern Illinois while its northern edge brushes Interstate 70. If the HREF solution verifies, the threat for flash flooding will remain confined to far southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. On the other hand, coarser deterministic guidance like the NAM and GFS drives the LLJ core much farther north, aligning it closely with Interstate 70. If these coarser models prove correct, a heightened hydrological threat will emerge for the area, with localized rainfall totals exceeding 2 inches through Friday morning. Friday through the Weekend... Forecast uncertainty persists through the weekend, heavily driven by the evolution and intensity of upstream nocturnal convection and how it alters the background shortwave energy and front's position over central Illinois on Friday and Saturday. This typical MCV-season setup is notoriously difficult for convective-allowing models (CAMs) to resolve given the weak synoptic forcing. Friday presents a similar challenge to today, with a decaying MCV tracking from Missouri into Illinois by afternoon. Should the boundary layer destabilize optimally, scattered downbursts capable of severe wind gusts will become a concern again. Rain chances beyond Friday depend heavily on the strength of this convective-augmented shortwave. Progressive solutions, such as the ECMWF and its EPS ensemble, suggest a weaker open wave that pushes the front well south, effectively ending rain chances by Friday night. Meanwhile, the GFS and GEFS show a stronger closed wave that cuts off and lingers over southern Illinois, keeping daily shower and storm chances active through the weekend. At this point, both outcomes are equally plausible. Aside from the isolated severe wind risk, localized flash flooding driven by highly efficient warm-rain processes is a notable concern, as precipitable water (PWAT) values are forecast to exceed 2.0 inches (above the 90th percentile for July). Consequently, training and back-building convective cells capable of torrential rainfall rates exceeding 1 inch per hour must be monitored closely along any stalled boundary. Extended Outlook... Once the stalled boundary dissipates or pushes south by late weekend, long-range model guidance shows excellent agreement on the rapid expansion of a subtropical ridge across the central United States. Medium-range ensembles (GEFS/EPS/GEPS) consistently project an anomalous upper-level high centering over the Central Plains between July 13 and July 16. Sensible weather conditions across central Illinois during this extended timeframe will depend significantly on the exact longitudinal placement of the ridge core. A more western orientation would keep the local area under active northwest flow aloft, opening the door for periodic ridge-riding MCSs that would cap afternoon temperatures through persistent cloud cover and convective debris. Conversely, an eastern orientation shifts the ridge axis further east directly into the Corn Belt, allowing a regime of hot and dry weather to quickly manifest by mid-July. Recent ensemble guidance trends continue to favor this latter, eastward-shifting scenario, indicating an increasing likelihood of building heat and dry conditions heading into the middle of the month. Unlike our last spell of hot weather, dewpoints look to be somewhat suppressed beneath this heat dome, as the Gulf remains closed. The net effect will be hotter ambient temperatures (low to mid 90s), but lower heat index values (around 100F or less). && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Thunderstorms are expected to develop early this afternoon, as a small scale disturbance moves out of Missouri. Main focus for convection will be in the KSPI-KCMI corridor, closest to the track of this feature. Will include a 3-4 hour TEMPO period in this area for the highest potential, but maintain PROB30 groups at KPIA/KBMI where development is less certain. Going later into the night, focus shifts toward MVFR or potential IFR conditions, as a front settles into the area and winds become nearly calm. HREF probabilities of ceilings below 1000 feet peak around 11-13z at 40-60%. Will need to watch for this potential with upcoming TAF issuances, but for now, will go with MVFR ceilings mainly on the lower end. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...MJA UPDATE...Geelhart DISCUSSION...MJA AVIATION...Geelhart  076 FXUS66 KPQR 091724 AAB AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATE National Weather Service Portland OR 1023 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Updated Aviation and Marine discussions .SYNOPSIS...Persistent onshore flow will continue to yield dry and seasonable weather through this weekend. Daytime highs trend warmer early next week as high pressure builds over the Great Basin. After the middle of next week, uncertainty increases in the exact forecast, but a warming and drying trend is expected. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday...Minimal changes in the overall synoptic pattern through the remainder of the week. A broad, upper level trough will continue to push south and east through British Columbia, while a broad area of high pressure remains anchored over the Great Basin. This synoptic set-up is resulting in zonal flow aloft and onshore flow at the surface. This pattern will help to maintain near normal daytime highs across the forecast area as well as slightly cooler than normal, overnight lows. As the start of next week approaches, another upper level trough or closed low, looks to dive southward out of the Gulf of Alaska and move into British Columbia. Which will result in the upper level flow pattern becoming southwesterly. In addition to the Alaskan system, the Great Basin high will also re-build. This general pattern change will result in a slight warming trend starting Sunday and continuing through the middle of the week. Expect high temperatures through the first half of next week to reach the mid to upper 80s inland and mid 60s to near 70 degrees along the coast, while overnight lows similarly push a few degrees warmer into the mid 50s across the region. This combination of temperatures continues to support widespread Minor HeatRisk across the majority of the region with isolated areas of Moderate HeatRisk in the Portland/Vancouver metro and through the Columbia Gorge, especially on Tuesday. There remains a broad region from Salem north through the Lower Cowlitz Valley and east along the I-84 corridor through the Gorge where there is a 20-50% chance of Moderate HeatRisk on both Monday and Tuesday if forecast temperatures trend warmer, with the highest likelihood in the Lower Tualatin Valley (Beaverton, Tigard, Tualatin) and neighboring portions of Multnomah and Clackamas Counties (Portland, Wilsonville). Chances for Major HeatRisk are 10% or less across the region. Uncertainty in the temperature forecast increases beyond Wednesday as consensus is relatively low in the long-term evolution of the strong upper ridge. Nonetheless, chances for rain remain minimal through the period. /42-36 && .AVIATION...Zonal flow aloft gradually turning southwest tonight ahead of an approaching upper level trough. Predominately VFR conditions are expected for inland terminals through at least 12z Friday, while VFR is likely at the coast until 02-04z Friday. Some lingering stratus near KAST is expected to scatter out by 19z. Marine stratus will likely push back on shore this evening with probs for lower- end MVFR CIGs increasing to around 80-90% after 06z Fri, while chances for IFR conditions are lower at around 20-30%. As the upper trough approaches expect the marine layer to deepen with increasing chances for stratus to push farther inland, though chances for MVFR reaching the Portland metro remain capped at around 20-40% between 12-18z Friday. North to northwest winds increase again this afternoon with gusts up to 25 kt at coastal terminals. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR under mostly clear skies expected through at least 12z Friday. A marine push may return stratus to the area early Friday morning with around a 20-40% chance of MVFR CIGs between 12-18z Fri. Northwest winds expected to increase to around 8-10 kt this afternoon. /DH && .MARINE...High pressure over the waters today will maintain breezy north to northwest winds through this evening. Gusts up to 20 kt will be possible south of Cape Foulweather. A weak cold front will move across the waters on Friday, ultimately disrupting the high pressure and decreasing winds across the waters. High pressure effetely rebuilds over the coastal waters through the weekend, returning northerly winds later Saturday and increasing pressure gradients on Sunday, returning chances for gusts up to 25 kt. Seas are expected to remain around 4 to 6 ft as relatively benign conditions persist through the weekend and into the start of next week. /DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  236 FXUS62 KTAE 091727 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 127 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 124 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Rain chances decrease some today and Friday but an increase in convective coverage is expected over the weekend and through early next week. When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors! - Above average temperatures are expected through Saturday. Some localized areas of advisory level heat indices (108 F) are possible into Friday. Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in air- conditioned places, wear light clothing, and know the signs of heat stress and illnesses. && .UPDATE... Issued at 913 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Increased rain chances for much of the area today thanks to a plume of 2"+ PWATs over the Florida Panhandle that's moseying east. Couple that with a weak H5 vort max and rain/storms should be a bit more widespread. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Upper level ridge axis extending west from the Atlantic will remain over the region this afternoon while weak southwesterly flow associated with a broad upper level trough to the northwest keeps some shower and storm chances in play today. The highest rain chances will generally be across the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and into northern counties across central Georgia. Conditions will remain warm this afternoon and above average for this time of year as highs climb into the low to mid 90s. Localized areas of heat indices of 108 to 110 are possible, but given potential for cloud cover, some convection, and the spotty nature of these heat indices, have held off on a heat advisory today. Shower and storm chances quickly drop off this evening with mostly quiet conditions expected overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Friday is likely to be the driest and warmest afternoon of the period before rain chances increase over the weekend and next week in response to a weakening Atlantic Ridge. Additionally, a steadily building ridge across the northern Plains will lead to lowering heights across the region. As PWATs increase to well above 2 inches into early next week, well-above normal rain chances will likely develop. This should help bring relief to recent above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 124 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Showers and storms have blossomed along Florida's sea breeze and is pushing north to northeast. Have refined some of the timing for the PROB30s to better account for ongoing convection and movement. Most of the showers and storms wane near sunset with VFR conditions anticipated tonight into Friday morning. There are some indications of another round of showers/storms just offshore from KECP, so have included VCSH for Friday morning there to highlight that potential as confidence wasn't high enough to include any mention of thunder at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The summertime Atlantic ridge axis will extend west across Central Florida and into the Gulf through today, bringing mostly gentle southwest breezes to the waters. An afternoon and evening sea breeze will further increase nearshore winds each day. The ridge axis will shift north on Friday and Saturday and bringing lighter and more variable winds. Isolated showers/storms are possible in the overnight and morning hours before transitioning inland. A wetter pattern begins to develop over the weekend and into early next week with multiple days of widespread shower and storm activity expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Relatively low fire weather concerns, outside of higher dispersions across southwest Georgia counties, will prevail the next few days. Afternoon humidities will be in the 40 to 50% range. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast each afternoon with coverage decreasing the rest of the week, with only isolated storms possible today and Friday. Winds will be light out of the south and southwest through the period but localized increases across FL due to the seabreeze can be expected most afternoons. Main concerns outside fire weather will be heat indices possibly reaching advisory criteria today and Friday with pockets reaching near 110 F. Rain chances increase markedly Saturday into next week with high probabilities for wetting rains expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Lower than normal rainfall chances appear likely through the end of the work week before coverage increases over the weekend and through early next week. Widespread rainfall amounts around an inch are forecast into the weekend for our Florida counties with localized higher amounts if a slower-moving thunderstorm passes over. Lower totals are forecast to the north. By early next week above-normal rainfall chances will likely lead to higher rainfall totals. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 94 76 96 75 / 40 10 10 0 Panama City 91 81 92 80 / 40 10 10 0 Dothan 95 75 95 74 / 40 20 30 20 Albany 95 76 95 76 / 30 20 20 20 Valdosta 96 75 97 75 / 20 10 10 0 Cross City 96 76 97 76 / 0 0 10 10 Apalachicola 90 80 91 80 / 20 10 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...Reese MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...Dobbs  197 FXUS63 KGRR 091726 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 126 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered Showers and Storms Today - Mostly Dry Weekend Favored and Heating Back Up && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Scattered Showers and Storms Today Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain the mode today. While not as warm as yesterday, the humidity will be a little higher. A weak cold front slowly arriving from the northwest, weak midlevel shortwave troughing, and remnant vorticity maxima from yesterday evening's convection over the Upper Miss. River valley, should serve to initiate shower and storm development. Initially elevated convection is possible most anywhere later this morning, then more surface-based storms would be favored east of US-131 during the afternoon. CAPE should be in the range of 750-1500 J/kg. Low-level wind shear is expected to be weak, and deep layer shear of 20 kt is also on the marginal side. With weak forcing and weak storm- relative inflow, storm updrafts should be smaller-scale and less likely to produce severe hail. By afternoon, the well mixed lower levels and DCAPE around 600 J/kg would support locally gusty winds under any of the more robust storm cells, with a marginal risk of severe winds near and east of Battle Creek - Lansing. Rain today is not guaranteed in any location. However, an isolated inch or more of rain could fall in a couple spots. Added patchy fog into the forecast for early Friday morning as winds go calm and skies partially clear. Isolated showers or storms may continue to percolate in mid/southern Lower Michigan tonight into Friday. - Mostly Dry Weekend Favored and Heating Back Up Rising heights in the upper levels and a strengthening surface high over Lower Michigan this weekend will favor a dry forecast. There is about a 10 percent chance of a shower or storm popping up on Sunday, better chances north. As a 500 mb high (associated with a heat wave out west) strengthens and migrates from the SW CONUS to the Dakotas this weekend into Monday, a plume of 20-25 C air at 850 mb will advect into Michigan from the west-northwest Monday-Tuesday. High temperatures in the 90s away from Lake Michigan are well supported by the ECE and GEPS. Dew points may be a little lower than with last week's heat wave, but a heat index in the mid to upper 90s is favored. Mid to late week, the spread in solutions increases (and confidence decreases), dependent on the relative strength and position of the central CONUS high and the eastern Canadian trough, but now a majority of ECE members and about 25 percent of GEPS members (not to mention a few GEFS members) keep highs in the 90s through Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 126 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Scattered thunderstorms are likely through the afternoon, and based on development trends have gone TEMPO Thunder at LAN/JXN. Convective LLWS and microbursts with winds of 35+ knots are possible with any storms. Thunderstorms diminish this evening followed by a period of fog and low cloud development overnight. MVFR conditions are likely, with IFR possible mainly at LAN. Some discrepancy in guidance over the extent of low-level stratus vs fog coverage, but flight category forecast remains the same. Gusts to 15 knots, higher in thunderstorms, continue through the afternoon with light winds overnight. Thwen winds increase to 3-8 knots from the north to northwest Friday. && .MARINE... Issued at 350 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Light winds and low waves expected over Lake Michigan today, with wind direction variable depending on location. Can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm developing over the lake this morning. Friday, north-northwest winds may build 2 to 4 foot waves and a moderate swim risk by late afternoon. Swim risk is expected to be low this weekend with a high pressure system over the area. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CAS AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...CAS  249 FXUS63 KOAX 091727 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1227 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A stretch of hot weather is expected this weekend into next week, with highs in the 90s and heat indices approaching 100 degrees. - Most days are looking dry through the next week, though we could see a few spotty showers and storms Friday. Severe weather is not expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1047 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Tonight through Friday... A cluster of thunderstorms have developed along a front draped across northeast Nebraska earlier this evening, supported by a shortwave trough pushing across the northern Plains. Rather limited deep-layer shear (around 20 kts) has kept the initial storm development rather stationary along this boundary. Ample instability (MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg) along with the sufficient shear has brought pockets of strong to severe storms along this cluster. Cold-pool development behind the line will lead to an eventual southward push of this system into the overnight period. As the cold-pool helps force the storms into more of an upscale cluster, isolated pockets of damaging wind gusts (pockets of 60 mph) will be one of the primary hazards over the next few hours, aided by DCAPE of 1000-1200 J/kg. The severe weather potential will gradually decay into the overnight period. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will remain another concern. PWAT values near 1.80-2" (above the 90th percentile of sounding climatology) and warm cloud depths of 4 km have brought efficient rainfall processes, especially when coupled with the longer residence time. Pockets of 3- 4.50 inches of rainfall have been reported, with the highest totals in western Iowa. CAM guidance continues to hint at a few scattered storms redeveloping behind the main cluster overnight, though the severe weather potential will be limited with these storms given the increasing inhibition and decreasing shear. Storms will push southward across the area overnight, clearing much of the forecast area by 7 AM. Can't rule out a few afternoon storms redeveloping along the front in far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, though the better shear and instability should stay just to our south. The lingering cloud cover and slightly cooler air mass will bring afternoon highs in the low to upper 80s. Similar temperatures are expected on Friday with partly cloudy skies. Saturday and Beyond... This weekend into early next week, an amplifying mid- to upper-level ridge is expected to build over the Front Range and gradually expand eastward into the mid-Missouri Valley, leading to a warming trend and relatively dry conditions. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will take a step upward into the upper 80s to mid 90s. By Monday, most locations are expected to reach the 90s a few spots in northeast Nebraska expected to reach the triple digits. Overnight lows will remain in the low 70s. Heat index values are expected to reach the mid 90s to around 105 degrees daily. This hot pattern with minimal precipitation chances will continue into the work week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Expect MVFR ceilings early in the period to scatter out with cloud bases generally rising through the afternoon and VFR conditions thereafter. Some guidance hints at some showers and isolated storms pushing toward the area 12-15Z Friday, but chances currently remain below 20%, highest at OFK and LNK, so did not include mention at this time. Otherwise, winds will be light and northerly to northeasterly through most of the period, though should become southeasterly at OFK toward 03Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...CA  203 FXUS63 KUNR 091726 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1126 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Unsettled through Thursday as a series of disturbances move through the region -Sufficient moisture and shear is in place to support a few strong to severe storms -Very hot this weekend into early next week with record high temps possible and dangerous heat && .UPDATE... Issued at 950 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Convection continues this evening across portions of northeastern Wyoming, northwestern South Dakota, and southwestern South Dakota. The severe threat has largely ended. No major changes to the forecast. Meager westerly flow coupled with weak large-scale ascent will limit overall coverage and a more widespread severe threat. Expect convection initiation on the Black Hills after 1200-1300 Thursday afternoon, where marginal effective bulk shear will be in place (~25-30 knots). A few strong to severe storms are possible; large hail is a threat with any supercellular structures that can sustain themselves. Similar to the past few days, up to golf ball sized hail are possible with the strongest transient single cells. Beyond the severe threat tomorrow, building heat will become the dominant weather story along with worsening fire weather conditions through the weekend into next week. && .DISCUSSION...(This Afternoon Through Tuesday) Issued at 1103 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Impulse filled westerly flow remains in place over the FA. Daily chances for thunderstorms can be expected with strong to severe storms possible at times, through Thursday. Weak impulse will advect through the SW third this afternoon and support TS clusters. Ample LL moisture in place combined with sufficient deep layer shear will support a few strong to severe storms, with large hail and damaging wind the main threats, mainly INVOF of the Black Hills. Given ML CAPE of 1-2 KJ/KG, deep bulk layer shear of 35 to 40 knots expect isolated supercells to be possible, capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Storms will carry SE across the SW FA through the evening. More storms are expected Thur as sufficient LL moisture will be in place with weak stability and another impulse. Best chances for storms will be in the afternoon/evening. Similar CAPE/shear parameters will be in place to again support a few strong to severe storms, esp over the SW third. Upper ridge builds into the region this weekend, with dry and hot conds expected. Hot temps around 35C at h85 with close to 6000m H5 heights over WY, will offer record to near record highs well into the 100s with some areas seeing readings around 110 on portions of the Plains, esp Sunday and Monday. However, given how dry the BL will be with dewpoints falling into the 20s in the west to the 50s east, apparent T's will only top out in the upper 90s to lower 100s, highest on the SD Plains, supporting adv level numbers. Ridge begins to retrograde the middle of next week, with storm chances returning as the active northern periphery of the ridge settles back south. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Friday) Issued At 1125 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Another round of convection is expected today, primarily over the Black Hills and areas east. A PROB30 has been included for KRAP, thunderstorms will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. MVFR/IFR conditions are possible near/under stronger storms. 12Z suite of CAMs had little confidence areas of northeastern WY near KGCC would be impacted by TS, so it was left out. Will be closely monitoring the development of storms today in case the surface boundary slows and pops storms further west than anticipated. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. &&$$ UPDATE...SE DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...Schweigert  229 FXUS65 KRIW 091727 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1127 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Less storm activity for this afternoon (10-15% coverage). These will build and push off the Winds by 2-3PM and move east across Fremont/Natrona Counties by 6-7PM with main threats of gusty outflow winds up to 40-50 mph. - Record high temperatures are likely this weekend and possibly early next week with some all time record high temperatures possible. The hottest day will be Sunday. - Very low humidity will bring elevated fire weather Friday into early next week. Critical fire weather is possible in northern Wyoming Sunday afternoon for the northern Bighorn Basin and Cody Foothills. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 151 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 We still have a few light showers in central portions of Wyoming early this morning as we still have a bit of CAPE in the atmosphere. Nothing heavy, and barely any lightning, just a few showers. At this point, any amount of moisture is a good thing. And it looks like it will be another day of convection. There could be some this morning though, especially in portions of Johnson and Natrona County where guidance is showing some CAPE this morning, so we added around a 1 in 5 chance of a shower, it may end up just being virga though. Otherwise, the trend of decreasing coverage of convection continues as precipitable water values continue to drop. Again, the main chance will be East of the Divide with areas to the west largely dry with less than a 1 in 10 chance. For once, we don't have any kind of risk from the Storm Prediction Center. The main threat will be, as it always is this time of year, strong wind gusts. Models soundings continue to show inverted V signatures and with some dew point depressions approaching 50 degrees, wind gusts of 50 mph will be possible with any shower or thunderstorm. This looks like an earlier show with most showers ending after sunset and all over by midnight. Temperatures should be similar to yesterday, quite warm but fairly normal for July. Tomorrow is where we begin to transition from thunderstorms to heat. Drier air will continue to push eastward across the area, dropping precipitable water levels even more. There may be just enough moisture and instability to squeeze out very isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, this would be mainly in Johnson County where a bit more moisture will linger and possibly the mountains with a bit of high elevation heat source. Coverage will be very sparse though, with a capital V and a capital S, less than 5 percent of the area. Temperatures will also begin to rise, approaching 100 in the warm spots like the Bighorn Basin and widespread 90s East of the Divide in the lower elevations. This is hot, but nothing unusually for the middle of July, climatologically the warmest time of the year. Things really change on Saturday. Strong ridging over the desert southwest will begin to build northward, with 500 millibar heights reaching 5970 meters by days end. At the same time, 700 millibar temperatures will rise to as high as 21 celsius. This means a very hot day. Reasoning for today remains the same, most locations below 5200 feet East of the Divide have at least a 1 in 2 chance of high temperatures over 100 degrees, with the warmest spots like from Thermopolis to Greybull in the Bighorn Basin have an almost 100 percent chance. Some record high temperatures are certainly possible on this day. And, with the warm temperatures aloft and much drier air moving in, the chance of convection will be basically zero. But this is only the appetizer, with the main course likely to be on Sunday. This is when the ridge will be centered over Wyoming, with some models giving 500 millibar heights as high as 6000 meters. The 700 millibar temperatures may climb as high as 24 degrees celsius. All this adds up to a very hot day, possibly one we haven't seen in a long time. The NBA ensemble gives a greater than 1 in 2 chance of 100 degrees in all locations below 6000 feet, with an almost 100 percent chance below 5500 feet. And this includes some places that don;t see 100. Rock Springs has around a 3 in 5 chance of over 100, and even Jackson has a 1 in 3 chance. The lower elevations of the Bighorn Basin have at least a 4 out of 5 chance of high temperatures over 105 degrees on this day. And the warmest spots, like Greybull and Basin, have a 1 in 2 chance of reaching 110. This is the most likely day to see all time record highs broken, especially in locations that have a shorter period of record. As for heat highlights, I had mixed thoughts on this. The main reason is the humidity, or more specifically the lack of it. The lower elevations will have widespread single digit relative humidity, with some locations falling as a 3 percent on Sunday. This has an impact on the apparent temperatures, which is what we base heat highlights on. For one, the apparent temperature will be below the actual temperature by 5 or 10 degrees. Also, with the dry air, almost all locations should cool off at least into the 60s at night. The one place I could see an excessive heat watch is the Bighorn Basin, but this would mainly be for Sunday. Heat advisories look more likely at this time, there is still time so we will punt to day shift to take another look. And there is one more concern for Sunday. The NBM ensemble is giving a greater than 1 in 2 chance of wind gusts over 30 mph Sunday afternoon north of a Meeteetse to Worland to Kaycee line. With the extremely dry conditions, we may have to consider Fire Weather Highlights for Sunday afternoon. There should be some slight, and emphasis on slight. cooling on Monday, be probably only by 3 to 5 degrees. One hundred degree high temperatures will still be very widespread across the lower elevations. One this day, there may be just enough moisture to come around the backside of the ridge for isolated storms in the western mountains, but the chance is only around 1 out of 10. Chances of convection then slowly increase each day, starting mainly in western Wyoming on Tuesday and then spreading eastward as the ridge slowly moves eastward and moisture rotates in around the backside of it. Temperatures will cool at first in the west, but likely remain well above normal through the forecast period. Very hot temperatures continue Tuesday before some cooling moves in for midweek East of the Divide. But even with some cooling, temperatures should remain well above normal through most of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1127 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 All terminals to be VFR through midday Friday. Residual mid-level moisture remains over portions of the region today as a shortwave moves across central Wyoming late Thursday morning. The best chance for Thursday afternoon convection appears to be greatest across the Absaroka and Wind River Ranges and locations downstream. PROB30 groups are included at KRIW, KLND, and KWRL, along with KCPR where better surface moisture aids convective development. Most areas will notice a downturn in coverage by 01Z/Friday. Gusty outflow wind 35-45kts will be the main hazard. Westerly wind 10-18kts occurs from early afternoon until just before sunset at terminals west of the Continental Divide. Drier air arrives from the west tonight leaving a mostly clear sky by Friday morning. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday evening for WYZ003>006-010-011-013-016>020-023-025>030. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...CNJ  326 FXUS63 KABR 091729 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1229 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Slight (Level 2 of 5) to Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms is in effect Thursday afternoon through evening for north central and central South Dakota. Hail of 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts of 60 to 70 miles per hour will be the main threats. - A warming trend begins by the end of the week, and highs may potentially hit triple digits Sunday through Tuesday. This level of heat may cause widespread heat related impacts particularly for those without adequate cooling and those sensitive to heat. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Updated for the 18z TAF and aviation discussion below. UPDATE Issued at 638 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 High pressure center to the visibilities and ceilings north promotes light winds this morning, shifting from northerly to southerly this morning through this afternoon as the high pressure center continues to progress eastward. The light winds and recent moisture may support fog formation this morning, particularly over the James River Valley and on the eastern side of the Prairie Coteau. Mainly high clouds this evening, which should be enough for radiative cooling to be sufficient for full saturation as well. Fog may become dense at times, and visibility may drop below a mile in some places. Focus then shifts to the potential severe weather risk this afternoon and evening. The main threat area will be over north central and central South Dakota, where a Slight to Marginal Risk is in place. CAPE/Shear combination of 1000-2000 J/kg and roughly 30 knots will be present, supporting severe hail as a threat. Model soundings are also fairly consistent in resolving strong DCAPE of roughly 1500 J/kg and low-level lapse rates near dry adiabatic, meaning that severe wind will also be a threat. Tornado risk appears to be minimal at this point, and the heaviest storms will mainly steer clear of the areas that received flooding with Tuesday night's storms, so flooding is not a major concern. The exception to this would be along the Campbell/Walworth County border north of Selby, which was the area over north central South Dakota with the most saturated soils. While the bulk of the severe threat will be during the afternoon and evening hours, there is some signal in the high- resolution guidance for some showers to weak thunderstorms to continue through the overnight. Upper-level ridge builds over the region beginning this weekend. This ridging will allow a warmer airmass to take hold of the region, leading to a warmup to temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal. By Sunday and Monday, much of the forecast area will have the potential to reach highs of 100 degrees or higher. Latest NBM probabilities of highs on Sunday and Monday reaching 100 degrees or better have trended downward over the latest forecast cycle. Highest probabilities on Sunday are highest along and west of the Missouri River, ranging from 50 to 70 percent. Moving east, probabilities drop off to less than 10 percent east of the James River. A bit of an increase on Monday in the 50 to 70 percent probability range, which extends from the James River and west. East of the James, probability of 100 degrees drops to around 10 to 30 percent. Ensemble clusters show no signs of the upper-level ridge deteriorating or progressing eastward, meaning that these above normal temperatures are likely to stick around through next week. By Monday and Tuesday, the NWS Heat Risk shows high probabilities of reaching the Major Stage.This indicates the potential for widespread heat related impacts, particularly for those without adequate cooling and those sensitive to heat. Pockets of Extreme Heat Risk may be possible as well as the week progresses, the highest level on the scale. This indicates the potential for extended periods of heat related impacts, and caution should be taken during these times. A Heat Headline will more than likely be needed for the start of next week, but nothing will be issued at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG There are VFR conditions this afternoon and into the evening. KABR and KATY will see these conditions continue while some scattered afternoon cumulus clouds sit in the sky this afternoon. KPIR and KMBG could see conditons degrade a little during the evening as thunderstorms are forecast to move into central SD between 22/23z into the evening. There is a slight (level 2 of 5) to marginal (level 1 of 5) for storms to become severe, with hail up to 1 to 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph. The storms will dissipate overnight back into VFR conditions. KPIR and KMBG could also see wind gusts up to 20kts through the evening before the storms arrive. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...12 DISCUSSION...BC AVIATION...12  342 FXUS63 KGLD 091730 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1130 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs largely in the 90s are expected for the rest of the week. - Storm chances, potentially severe, continue through Friday. - Increasing signal for a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions starting this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 152 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Storm activity has lowered across the area with the main gust front line clearing the area to the east, along with the surface low center east of the area. There may still be a few storms in Southwest Nebraska and adjacent counties through the night due to a cluster of storms that persisted near North Platte. It is unlikely these storms would be severe, but they could produce small hail and winds gusting to 50 mph. Parts of Eastern Colorado could drop into the 50s, while the rest of the area stays in the 60s with dewpoints in the 60s and cloud cover. Through the morning and early afternoon hours, the upper level pattern is forecast to have the area in weak northwest flow. With the lack of features initially, winds should be a bit on the lighter side at or below 15 mph. The winds will likely vary a bit in direction until a low develops west of the area later in the day. Skies should clear through the morning and allow temperatures to warm to around 90 by the mid afternoon hours. By the mid to late afternoon hours, storms are forecast to develop along the Front range and Palmer Divide. This looks to be caused by the surface low pressure deepening along the Front Range and a shortwave moving through the upper northwest flow. With storm development likely west of the area, storms should cluster or form lines as they move into the area. Some of the earliest guidance suggests parts of Eastern Colorado could see storms around 3pm, but it will likely be closer to 5-6pm again. These storms may be severe as MUCAPE is forecast to be around 1500-2000 J/kg again along with mid-level lapse rates around 8.0-8.5 C/km. The main difference that may allow storms to be a bit stronger and have a higher chance of holding together is that 0-6km shear could be 40-45 kts with the deepening surface low and shortwave both increasing the flow in the lower and mid- levels. Even with this, storms would likely still be more of a wind threat due to the cluster/linear storm mode that is forecast. The max speeds should be closer to 75 as long as storms are organized, with gusts generally around 55-65 mph. Otherwise, wind gusts would be similar to today with a few 60s, but largely in the 40s and 50s. The better shear does increase the max hail size to around 1.75-2.00 inches, though the more linear/cluster mode would likely lead to more smaller or marginally severe hail. LCLs are forecast to be high again, likely inhibiting a chance for tornadoes. There is a very low chance for flash flooding, especially as storms first cluster and may train over an area. If this occurs, rain totals could reach 1-3 inches and maybe allow for some small flash flooding. If the clusters/lines move consistently though, flash flooding is unlikely. This is currently the forecast, with the clusters moving into Eastern Colorado around 5-6pm and moving steadily east through the area. Storms would likely end around 2- 3am, unless they gust out again which would put the ending time closer to midnight. Once the storms clear, another night with light winds and temperatures in the 50s and 60s is forecast. Skies should clear in the west, but may remain cloudy for eastern portions of the area. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 107 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Friday appears to be the last in a series of days with diurnally driven thunderstorms developing and persisting through the evening hours. Confidence in this time period is somewhat lower than normal since it will strongly depend on how thunderstorms develop tonight and tomorrow night. That being said, general pattern appears to hold frontal zone to the south of area, with generally easterly upslope flow throughout the day. Best large scale forcing for ascent appears to just skirt the CWA south of Interstate 70 as weak H7-H5 low moves into SW Kansas. As mentioned before, confidence in details is low at this point and time but overall pattern supports another round of thunderstorms developing over higher terrain and moving to the east southeast in the evening hours. Directional shear will be better than previous days, although overall wind speeds aloft are on the weaker side Friday will likely provide the best shear profiles for organized storms. Similar to the past few days, highest threat will be for organized areas of damaging winds through the evening followed by threat for hail in the 1" to 1.75" range. Blowing dust threat will depend greatly on how and where precipitation falls on Thursday and morning cloud cover. Confidence in these specifics are very low at this point however, resulting in low confidence in dust threat. Region will move into a warm and dry pattern as strong H5 597 dm ridge develops and builds into the northern plains through the start of the week. While there is a small threat for precipitation/thunderstorms on periphery of the H5 ridge Saturday this potential drops off rapidly through the rest of the period as subsidence under strong ridge. With probabilities of this magnitude of ridging fairly high based on ensemble probabilities, confidence in hot and overall dry weather is high. With temperatures climbing into the 90s, possibly upper 90s by mid week, the primary expected impacts. Right now, dewpoints should remain high enough to prevent critical fire weather conditions, but will have to keep a close eye on heat indices through the start of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1128 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Sub-VFR conditions and strong westerly winds associated with thunderstorms are possible at both terminals late this afternoon and evening, mainly between 00-06Z. Patchy MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled-out ~09-15Z Fri morning (similar to this morning). VFR conditions will otherwise rule through the TAF period. ESE to SE winds at 7-14 knots this afternoon and evening will become light and variable overnight (in the wake of storms) and remain light/variable through the rest of the 18Z TAF period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...JRM AVIATION...Vincent  361 FXUS65 KPSR 091730 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1030 AM MST Thu Jul 9 2026 .UPDATE...18Z Aviation Discussion && .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures will continue through the end of the work week resulting in areas of Major HeatRisk. Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect through this evening across all of the lower desert locations, with the warning extended through Friday across western Imperial County, the Lower Colorado River Valley, and the Phoenix Metro. - The chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue over the higher terrain areas of the eastern and southeastern third of Arizona through Friday. - As deeper moisture moves in, the chances for more widespread thunderstorm activity will increase late weekend and early next week. && .SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/... Latest objective analysis depicts an elongated subtropical ridge extending from eastern AZ through the eastern Pacific just off the coast of southern CA with 500 mb height fields ranging between 594- 596dm. With the ridging directly overhead, very hot temperatures will continue today across the region with afternoon highs ranging between 110-114 degrees across the south-central AZ lower deserts to 111-116 degrees across the western deserts. These afternoon highs combined with very warm overnight lows in the 80s to around 90 degrees in the Phoenix metro will continue to result in areas of Major HeatRisk. As a result, an Extreme Heat Warning remains in across all of the lower desert locations through this evening. The ridging will weaken slightly into Friday, resulting in slightly lower afternoon highs. However, across western Imperial County and the Lower Colorado River Valley area in particular, temperatures will still top out between 111-115 degrees with areas of Major HeatRisk continuing and thus have elected to extend the Extreme Heat Warning through Friday evening across this region. We also have elected to extend the Extreme Heat Warning through Friday for the Phoenix area as even though afternoon highs will be slightly cooler, ranging between 109-112 degrees, early morning lows will start out very warm near 90 degrees, resulting in areas of Major HeatRisk continuing. With greater subsidence and slightly drier air expected today and Friday, the overall convective coverage will decrease with activity relegated mostly across the White Mountains into the southeastern third of AZ. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As mentioned in previous discussions, the overall weather pattern heading into the weekend and next week will become more favorable for a more active monsoonal pattern to set up. The subtropical ridge will quickly migrate northeastward into the Rockies over the weekend and then set up over the Central Plains early next week while strengthening in the process. As this whole pattern evolution materializes, the mid-level flow will shift out of the east to southeast. This will introduce strong moisture transport into the Desert Southwest with the latest EPS and GEFS showing PWATs increasing to at least 1.4-1.5" starting as early as Sunday and remaining above 1.5" into next week. Moisture on Saturday will likely remain fairly limited across south- central AZ with low-level mixing ratios remaining between 9-10 g/kg, with the better moisture and thus the best convective potential remaining relegated to the higher terrain and southeastern AZ. There are strong indications from the latest guidance of a strong convective complex likely to develop over northern Sonora Saturday evening, which will likely send of pool of higher moisture into central AZ heading into Sunday with mixing ratios solidly above 10 g/kg. As a result, Sunday looks to be the first real potential for greater thunderstorm activity to materialize across the south- central AZ lower deserts with NBM PoPs solidly in the 30-50% range. With PWATs values remaining above 1.5" along with mixing ratios above 10 g/kg through the first half of next week, the potential for additional convective activity will remain in place and likely expand further west to include the western deserts as well with NBM PoPs ranging between 20-40% each day. We will also have to be on the lookout for any potential easterly waves that could enhance the convective activity, however, pinpointing the track and timing of these waves this far out is very difficult. Therefore, high uncertainty exists of which particular days next week have the potential to be more convectively active. With the increasing moisture and potential cloud cover, afternoon high temperatures this weekend into early next week will gradually retreat to near to slightly above normal levels with widespread moderate HeatRisk in place. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1730Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: The main aviation forecast uncertainty will be the potential for an outflow from distant convection moving through region early tonight. As of now, best timing looks to be between 05Z-08Z, though timing may need to be adjusted in later TAF updates. Due to the uncertainty of this feature, it only included in the TAFs as TEMPO group. No significant dust is expected if an outflow were to come to fruition, but some slight reductions in surface VIS cannot be ruled out, mainly at KIWA. Outside of this, diurnal trends will be observed through the period, with the timing of the nightly/early morning E'rly shift highly conditional the advancement of a possible outflow. Afternoon gusts around 20 kt can be expected. Besides some distant CU from high terrain thunderstorms, skies will be mostly clear in the vicinity of the terminals. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Multiple round of breezy to windy conditions, mainly at KBLH, will be the main aviation concern during the next 24 hours. Gust there will hover around 25 kt this afternoon before relaxing after sunset, though sustained speeds are expected to remain elevated. The next round of breeziness is anticipated overnight in a window between 08Z-12Z, this time with gusts that may approach 30 kt at times. Speeds should once again relax around sunrise. At KIPL, gusts will not be as strong, nor as prominent during the forecast window, but obs around 20 kt are likely to be seen this evening, and maybe again for a brief moment overnight. Clear skies will be common through Friday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Gusty and erratic thunderstorm winds with isolated lightning over the far eastern districts through Friday will be the main fire weather concern. Outside of any potential outflows, winds should favor diurnal trends with typical afternoon breeziness around 20 mph. Some stronger afternoon gusts between 20-30 mph will be common through Friday along the Lower Colorado River Valley. Afternoon RH values between 10-20% will be common across the region through Saturday. Overnight recoveries will generally range between 30-60% with the upper end of the range across the Imperial Valley and the eastern Districts. Temperatures are expected to run well above normal today, with the lowest elevations reaching between 110-115 degrees before a very gradual cool down takes place starting Friday. More widespread monsoonal activity is likely starting late this weekend and continuing into next week. Moisture levels and humidities should also improve considerably heading into next week, alleviating much of the fire weather concerns. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Friday for AZZ530-537-540- 542>544-546-548-550-551. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ531>534- 536-538-539-541-545-547-549-553>555-559-560-562. CA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for CAZ562-566-567- 569-570. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ564-565- 568. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lojero LONG TERM...Lojero AVIATION...RW FIRE WEATHER...Lojero/Kuhlman  506 FXUS66 KLOX 091731 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1031 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS...09/310 AM. Moderate heat impacts will continue through Friday away from the coast in response to a strong ridge of high pressure over the region. Temperatures will decrease slightly over the weekend as the ridge moves away from the region, but some heat impacts will continue. Monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will be possible starting Sunday. Temperatures will begin to build once again on Tuesday, potentially reaching Major Heat Risk levels, with the monsoonal moisture adding to the discomfort from the heat. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...09/1025 AM. ***UPDATE*** Clouds will clear from the beaches today by the afternoon and other areas are currently under full sunshine. Temperatures are on track to be the warmest of the next couple days, with highs around 5 to 10 above normal (78-88 near the beaches, 90-100 for most valleys, and 100-110 for the warmest valleys and the deserts. ***From Previous Discussion*** An upper level 595 dam high is situated just to the SW of LA. It will remain stationary for through Friday morning and then begin to slowly drift to the ENE. Hgts over Srn CA during the 3 day period will be between 594 and 595 dam, which is 3 to 4 dam higher than normal for this time of year. This morning there will be about 2mb of onshore flow to the east and about 2mb of offshore flow from the north. Onshore trends over the next three days will result in mdt to stg onshore flow both to the east and north by Saturday. There will only be minimal low clouds this morning concentrated across the Central Coast, the Paso Robles area and the KLGB-KLAX cstl area. The increase in onshore flow will bring more low clouds to the csts Friday morning. The stronger onshore flow will bring plenty of low clouds to the csts on Saturday morning and locally into the lower vlys. Skies Saturday will be partly cloudy after the low clouds dissipate as mid and high level clouds rotate into the area around the upper high. High temperatures continue to be the main concern through the forecast period. Today will be the warmest day with the above normal hgts and the weakest onshore flow. Most max temps will be about a degree warmer than ydy's very warm readings. The exception today will be the Central Coast which due to the weaker onshore flow will see 4 to 8 degrees of warming. Vly temps today will range from 88 to 102 degrees or 4 to 8 degrees above normal. The increasing marine layer and onshore flow will bring some cooling to the csts and vlys each day Fri and Sat while the mtns and interior will see little change. Heat advisories continue over many areas (humidities will be on rise and this increase will mitigate the cooler temps) please see the product LAXNPWLOX for details. Advisory level Sundowner winds are once again likely this evening for Southwest Santa Barbara County. Elevated fire weather conditions will continue for this area as well. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...09/310 AM. The upper high will continue to drift to the NE and will end up over South Dakota by Monday where it will stay through most of next week. Srn CA will end up on the western periphery of the high and SE flow will set up and persist over the area. Hgts will not change much day to day and will be near 593 dam. At the sfc there will be gradual weakening of the onshore flow will the possibility of offshore flow developing from the north Tuesday or more likely Wednesday. The SE flow will bring monsoon moisture into the area with partly to mostly cloudy skies due to mid and high level clouds likely Sunday and Monday. There will also be enough onshore flow to bring low clouds to the csts and lower vlys each morning. PWAT quickly increase overnight Saturday and persist into Monday. The moisture will be low enough to bring a 10-20 percent chc of showers and isold TSTMs to VTA and LA counties. The best chc each day will be in the afternoons and early evenings over the mtns esp the eastern LA mtns. The increase in humidities will keep the heat index high enough to continue the low end heat advisories for most areas away from the csts. The monsoon will likely cut off on Tuesday and skies will be much clearer for Tue and Wed. The amount of marine layer clouds will shrink as the offshore trends take affect. The copious sunshine and weaker onshore flow will add up to two days of warming. The current forecast call for 3 to 6 degrees on Tue and 1 to 3 degrees on Wed. If, however, the offshore develops as some ensemble members indicate then max temps would end up much higher and an extreme heat watch is in effect to cover this possibility which stands at about 30 percent right now. && .AVIATION...09/1719Z. At 1643Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1100 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 66000 ft deep with a temperature of 25 C. High confidence in TAFs for KSBA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF. Fair confidence in TAFs for KSBP and KSMX with a 30 percent chc of VLIFR conds 10Z-15Z. VFR conds could occur +/- 1 hour from fcst. Good confidence in TAFs for KOXR and KCMA with a 15 percent chc of IFR cigs 13Z-16Z for KOXR. Moderate confidence in TAFs for KSMO, KLGB and KLAX. VFR transition could be off by +/- 90 minutes and cigs off by 300 ft. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chc of no cigs. Moderate confidence that MVFR/IFR conds will arrive between 0600Z and 0800Z. Good confidence that any east wind component will be AOB 6kt. KBUR...High confidence in TAF. && .MARINE...09/314 AM. For the outer waters, current Gale Warnings look on track ending Thursday morning. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds will follow, lasting through at least Friday morning. Large 10-12 ft seas will subside Friday, but current SCA may need to be extended into Friday night due to winds and seas. SCA level NW-W winds, with local gusts near gale force are expected for the inner waters along the Central Coast until Thursday morning. There is a 40% chance of Gales across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel through Thursday morning. Local SCA level wind gusts are also possible for far western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel through Thursday morning. For the inner waters south of Point Conception, conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels. && .BEACHES...09/1019 AM. A south to southwest swell will continue to affect the coastal waters through next week. With the swell, the potential for larger surf and greater risk for rip currents will continue. High tides are expected to increase this weekend going into next week with Monday expected to be the highest tide of 7.0 to 7.6 ft above MLLW. There is the potential for some minor coastal flooding next week with the high tides and south swell. One thing that will need to be watched into next week will be the potential of a greater south to southwest swell from potential tropical development. Thunderstorms are also possible starting Sunday and going through next week with a 10-20% chance. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 38-88-343>345-353-368-372-373-375>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through Thursday evening for zones 38-88-341>345-347>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Friday for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke/SchoenfeldAVIATION...SF MARINE...Phillips BEACHES...SF SYNOPSIS...RM/KL/SR weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  596 FXUS61 KBGM 091733 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 133 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes were made with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warm and humid conditions expected today, with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible this morning over northeast Pennsylvania followed by scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon into tonight across the area. 2) Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday as a frontal boundary moves through the region, with localized flash flooding possible. 3) After seasonal temperatures this weekend, heat builds into the area through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Southwesterly flow returns today as a trough begins digging into the Great Lakes. This will advect a warm and humid air mass into the region, allowing temperatures to climb into the mid 80s to lower 90s this afternoon, with dew points rising into the mid 60s (CNY) to low 70s (NEPA). While it will feel noticeable muggy, conditions are not expected to be oppressive enough to warrant any heat headlines. As the morning progresses, the approaching trough will bring two separate features capable of generating precipitation across portions of the area. The first is a shortwave moving into the Mid-Atlantic this morning, which will support scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of NEPA. Most of the heavier rainfall is expected to remains to our south, though showers and storms may brush parts of the Wyoming Valley and into the Southern Catskills from late morning through the afternoon. Forecast soundings continue to indicate weak instability and shear across the area during this time, keeping any convection that develops elevated and relatively weak. Attention then turns to a frontal boundary approaching from the northwest later this afternoon and evening. This feature will support a broader area of convection that will progress from northwest to southeast through the evening and overnight hours. The greatest potential from strong to isolated severe storms will be across the northern portion of the forecast area. With bulk shear values of 25 to 35 knots and MUCAPE around 1000-1500J/KG, a few storms may be capable of producing damaging winds. In addition, isolated flash flooding will be possible. Sounding profiles remain favorable for efficient rainfall production, with long and skinny CAPE profiles, PWATs between 1.5 and 2 inches, warm cloud depths near 12K feet and MBE vectors of just 5 to 10 knots. These parameters support slow moving or back building convection capable of producing localized heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding. This threat appears greatest from late afternoon through the overnight hours. KEY MESSAGE 2... The frontal boundary is expected to push through the area Thursday night into Friday morning, though the exact timing remains somewhat uncertain. Some guidance favors a quicker passage during the early overnight hours, while other solutions delay the front until late overnight or early Friday morning before slowing it near the NY/PA border through late morning and early afternoon. Should the slower solution verify, a shortwave lifting east from western PA would support scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the Twin Tiers and spreading into the Poconos during the afternoon and evening hours. The presence of a slow moving frontal boundary near the NY/PA border combined with the enhanced lift associated with the shortwave and a warm, moisture rich air mass could support multiple rounds of heavy rainfall over the same locations, further increasing the potential for isolated flash flooding. Given this setup, the area remains within a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. Key Message 3... A broad area of high pressure is expected to become established over the central US early next week, with an upper level ridge expanding eastward into the region. This pattern favors a return to very warm conditions, with model guidance indicating 850 mb temperatures rising into the +16 C to +20 C range. As a result, widespread mid 80s to lower 90s are possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Attention then turns to a trough attempting to dig into the Northeast later next week, which could bring a return to cooler temperatures. However confidence remains low regarding how successful this trough will be in suppressing the ridge and delivering meaningful cooling to the region. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Weak high pressure in place across the region this afternoon with currently a broad area of shallow cumulus. As the afternoon progresses the cloud layer should deepen and scattered showers and storms will develop. The most favorable area is still north of ITH, but have added VCTS to ITH, ELM, BGM and AVP for a couple hours to account for this uncertainty. Locations that see rain today/this evening will have a higher chance of seeing low clouds and fog later tonight. A weak wave will ride eastward through the southern tier of NY and be dissipating Friday morning between 13-18Z. A few rain showers are possible. SW winds around 10 kt this afternoon will subside to variable and less than 4 kt tonight before veering to the NW Friday morning around 5 to 13 kt. Outlook: Friday night...Dissipating showers and thunderstorms early...then patchy valley fog late. Restrictions possible. Saturday into Tuesday...VFR likely with high pressure building in, morning fog potential at ELM. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ES/JTC AVIATION...BJT  598 FXUS63 KARX 091733 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1233 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storm are possible this afternoon, mainly east of the Mississippi River. - Cooler weather to end the week with highs staying in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Warmer weather returns this weekend and continues next week as highs get in the upper 80s to low 90s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Today: Fog Early this Morning, Scattered Showers and Storms This Afternoon With the rain that fell and the subsidence behind the front that moved through, foggy conditions may occur early this morning. If skies clear out a little more then their could also be localized areas of dense fog in some locations. Northwest flow aloft along with soundings suggesting around 1500 to 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE will support scattered showers and storms this afternoon. With weak shear in place for this afternoon, these storms will struggle to get going. East of the Mississippi River has the best chance at seeing a shower or storm. The main threat with these storms that can get going and stay organized a for a period of time would be very localized rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5" due to slower storm motion. Friday-Next Week: Cooler End to the Week with Warmer and Drier Conditions Next Week Beginning on Friday, a ridge builds into the Upper Midwest. This will limit any rainfall chances for much of next week. Temperatures get into the upper 80s to low 90s across the CWA with the warmest temperatures west of the Mississippi River. At the surface the region will be just to the east of the high pressure center which could temper our temperatures compared to the High Plains where they will be in good southerly flow and west of the high pressure center. Confidence is high on the ridge staying overhead through midweek. Afterwards is where the uncertainty begins. Ensembles and deterministic guidance show the ridge breaking down at some point and bringing the storm path more in line with the Upper Midwest, however the main difference is when this occurs. The longer the ridge stays amplified and over our area, the less likely we see convection in our region. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Some intermittent low clouds are remaining over the terminals early this afternoon, but those should begin to lift and clear out over the next few hours. Outside of that potential, VFR conditions are forecast through this evening at the TAF sites. The potential for fog is increasing for tonight with visibility dropping down to MVFR to IFR conditions. Cannot rule out that KLSE sees lower visibility than is currently forecast due to valley fog, but confidence is not high enough to go with lower visby at this time. Any fog that develops should quickly burn off shortly after sunrise with VFR conditions thereafter. Light wind under 10 kts is forecast with this 24 hour period. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 After a swath of 3 to 5" fell in portions of southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa and a more localized area of 5 to 7" across southern Mower County, the Cedar River is pronged to be above flood stage over the next few days as the runoff fills into the River. Little to no more rain is expected over the next few days. The lone exception is this afternoon as scattered showers and storms are possible. There is a localized possibility of 0.5 to 1.5" occurring where a storm occurs. East of the Mississippi River has the best chance at seeing a shower or storm. Given the slow storm motions, these storms could linger over a given location. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.&& $$ DISCUSSION...Cecava AVIATION...Muscha HYDROLOGY...Cecava  615 FXUS63 KFGF 091734 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1234 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Level 2 out of 5 risk late afternoon and evening today for the Devils Lake area and a level 1 out of 5 risk tonight into the northern Red River valley. Hail and wind are the primary risk with any storms. - Dangerous heat this weekend into early next week. && UPDATE Issued at 448 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 SPC Day 1 outlook issued around 06z didnt change the slight or marginal risk area. Looks like scattered severe storms will form in an axis of 3000 to 4000 j/kg MUCAPE in north central ND into southwest Manitoba mid to late afternoon. Location of development may be affected by how far east this early morning t-storms moving in from Saskatchewan and northeast Montana make it. Brief severe period as after 03z the MUCAPE values drop significantly and 0-6 km bulk shear is modest (25-30 kts) any low level jet is quite weak as well, 850 mb winds 20-25 kts. Heat impacts and messaging remain for this weekend into early next week with focus on highest heat impacts Sunday and Monday. UPDATE Issued at 951 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Surface high pressure centered in southern MB will extend its influence into our area, calming winds, and helping clear skies. This may help areas of fog develop within the region. Latest high resolution guidance keeps coverage on the lower end, but does highlight areas within the Red River Valley as well as into northwest Minnesota. Should fog develop, timeframe generally resides 4 AM to 8 AM. Fog may be dense within the Red River Valley. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...Synopsis... Zonal flow across the northern CONUS today will gradually give way to more meridional flow by this weekend as ridging builds across the Rockies and Plains. Clusters then depict a couple stronger waves riding along the periphery of the ridge in Interior Canada. This could have impacts reaching some of the local thresholds for Heat Advisories or even an Extreme Heat Warning this weekend so the impact of these waves in the placement and amplitude of the ridge will certainly be something to watch. Along with these waves comes chances for some scattered rain though no drought busters. The main rain chance to be aware of looks to be Thursday evening/overnight mainly across our eastern North Dakota counties with chance for some strong to severe activity. - Thursday Severe Risk Amid mostly zonal to slightly NW flow will come a shortwave tomorrow with a developing low level jet in the evening ahead the pacific trough. As moisture surges north in central North Dakota with dewpoints nearing 70 potentially there will be no shortage CAPE with upwards of 3000-4000 MUCAPE and enough shear along clockwise curved hodographs for initially robust supercell structures. Capable of golf ball sized hail and potentially a few tornadoes though a later initiation time may shunt the tornado threat (an earlier storm start time may yield a higher threat.) Regardless as storms work east into our forecast area and namely the Devils Lake Basin around 7-9pm they should transition to a more elevated mode and the surface begins to cool with the cessation of daytime heating and hazards will evolve to primarily hail and an increasing wind threat storms likely congeal into one or more lines/bowing segments. Hazards for our area are hail to 1.75" and winds to 60mph. - Heat Impacts For this weekend as heat builds there is high confidence in much of eastern North Dakota seeing air temperatures cresting 90 degrees as early as Saturday and lasting through at least Monday when highs fall back into the 80s for the middle of next week. During this stretch the 25-75th percentile spread on potential high temperatures is a reasonable 5-8 degrees meaning while temps could end up slightly warmer or cooler than currently being forecast it is unlikely highs will only be in the lower 80s rather than lower 90s. Along with the warm temps will be heat indices near to above 100 Saturday through Monday. With this heat headlines look to be in order with Sunday being the hottest day of the stretch. Will wait until tomorrow at the earliest to issue any headlines for Saturday but it will be a proper July scorcher of a weekend regardless of any products being issued. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the period at all TAF sites outside of thunderstorm activity. There is a chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms, mainly in the vicinity of KDVL and KGFK late this afternoon and evening. Confidence in coverage is quite low at this time, thus went with a PROB30 group. Otherwise, minimal impact potential is expected at this time. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...CJ/Riddle DISCUSSION...TT AVIATION...Lynch  647 FXUS64 KEWX 091735 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1235 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Hottest day of the week Thursday, and heat index values will continue topping out in the 100 to 105 degree range each day through early next week. - Ambient temperatures ease off Friday into next week as daily rain chances return. - Strong wind gusts and locally heavy downpours will be possible Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 125 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A weak upper level shear axis is over South TX, but mid level ridging best seen at the 700 mb level is going to keep stable weather over the region through Thursday. Heating will be enhanced slightly due to the arrival of a Saharan Air Layer (SAL) plume, and we'll probably see temperatures bump up another degree or two, and that could take AUS to join ATT as new arrivals for triple digit temperatures for the first time of the season. Similar to the previous dust plume, this one doesn't hang around long and the hazy conditions will be replaced be more moist and tropical air during the daytime Friday. As part of a broader low pressure area aloft over much of Mexico, a lobe of 500 mb energy, lifts north into South TX Friday morning, bringing with it higher PWat values of 2 to 2.4 inches into the Coastal Prairies. This has lead to a significant bump in rain chances for Friday and will also signal some heat relief from all the clouds spreading inland. A few strong storms, mainly wind producers could develop as early day heating could create some good air contrasts as the rain cooled air spreads north. With the high PWat environment and expected northward storm motions of around 20-25 mph, some areas could see a quick 2 inch rainfall amount which to lead to some low-end flooding concerns. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 125 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The subtropical ridge remains anchored over the Wrn US and begins to lift north over the Rockies into the Northern Plains states this weekend. The northward amplification leaves much of TX in a broadening area of weakness as the H5 vorticity feature mentioned in the Short Term becomes more loosely defined. This broad area of weakness should continue to promote 30-40 percent rain chance type of opportunity at least for Saturday. The PWat values remain elevated and over 2 inches in spots, but the higher concentration of tropical air shifts NE to between Waco and Palestine by early Saturday evening. This more chaotic pattern should give the area a more air mass storm type which means timing and locations will likely jump around a bit based on where outflow boundaries are located. Heights continue to soar over the Northern Plains Sunday and this will funnel a lot of the mid level winds south of the bubble to be out of the E and N. This should hold the pooling of moisture over North and East TX, but could lead to some boosts in rain chances over Central TX and the Coastal Prairies. The pattern is fairly similar for Monday and Tuesday, so there could be a escalating concern for flooding should the rains concentrate daily over the same spots. The pattern becomes more sketchy late next week with the GFS and ECM deterministic runs showing less agreement, so there is perhaps an opening for another quiet period as early as mid-week. The NASA Dust Aerosol Optical Thickness modeling tool suggest a larger plume moving into the Gulf early next week should help slow the recurrent convective pattern down by next Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions are forecast for the local area terminals through Friday night. Breezy southerly winds with gusts ranging from 20 to 25 knots are anticipated for the rest of this afternoon through late evening. Wind flow relaxes overnight through Friday morning and pick up again late Friday morning into the afternoon period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 76 95 77 95 / 0 10 10 40 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 94 77 94 / 0 20 10 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 94 75 94 / 0 30 30 50 Burnet Muni Airport 73 93 74 93 / 0 10 10 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 76 95 76 95 / 0 0 20 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 75 95 76 94 / 0 10 10 30 Hondo Muni Airport 74 91 75 91 / 0 30 40 40 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 94 76 94 / 0 30 20 50 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 94 77 95 / 0 30 10 50 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 92 76 92 / 0 40 30 50 Stinson Muni Airport 76 92 76 92 / 0 40 30 50 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...MMM  691 FXUS61 KCLE 091736 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 136 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. The potential for rain on Saturday across our southern counties has trended slightly higher. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Occasional showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area late today through Friday. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated damaging winds across Northwest Ohio, Lake Erie, and the eastern lakeshore late today into tonight. Some thunderstorms can also produce heavy rain through Friday. 2) Rain chances may linger into Saturday before a drying trend this weekend into early next week. Temperatures trend above average early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight and gradually sag across the area Friday afternoon and evening. Aloft, a shortwave is tracking across the upper Ohio Valley this morning. A northern stream shortwave tracks across the southern Great Lakes this afternoon and evening. Another weak shortwave will track through the Ohio Valley tonight into Friday morning. The combination of the front, shortwaves, and the return of a moist and unstable airmass will allow for occasional opportunities for showers and storms through Friday. We will largely start dry today, but may have a couple of showers from eastern OH into northwestern PA early in proximity to the Ohio Valley shortwave. Will then turn attention to extreme Northeast OH/Northwest PA early to mid-afternoon, when a lake breeze pushes inland and potentially sparks isolated to widely scattered showers/storms. Otherwise, greater rain potential waits until closer to this evening. Storms are still favored to develop in closer proximity to the front across parts of southern MI, northern IN, and far Northwest OH by late this afternoon as we reach peak heating and as a shortwave begins tracking across the southern Great Lakes. This activity will try spreading east-southeast into the area through this evening, though there is not great agreement on how far this activity can progress as it outruns the front and greatest instability. Suspect that if activity is able to organize into a cluster that it should spread at least as far east-southeast as the I-71 corridor through the evening if not a bit farther, though models show considerable disagreement on that. After perhaps a lull following the evening convection, another uptick is favored overnight as the next shortwave moves into the Ohio Valley and as the front continues slowly approaching. This uptick in showers and storms may linger into Friday morning, especially from eastern OH into PA. We'll likely see activity exit east with the shortwave Friday morning, but with the front still sagging through the area and a humid airmass in place am expecting at least scattered re-development along and ahead of the front by early afternoon, with activity continuing through the afternoon before exiting south or weakening Friday night. The SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather in the form of damaging winds across Northwest OH, Lake Erie, and the adjacent eastern lakeshore for this afternoon and evening. MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/KG (with a tall/skinny CAPE profile) and 20-25kt of bulk shear may support loosely organized convection, with strong heating and well-mixed low- levels suggesting potential for cold pool development and organization with any clusters of storms...this can support the isolated damaging wind threat. Severe weather is unlikely on Friday due to weaker heating and minimal shear. Otherwise, the other concern is potential for locally heavy rain as precipitable waters climb to 1.75-2.00" tonight into Friday. This amount of moisture, combined with skinny instability profiles and high freezing levels, can support very efficient rain rates within convection tonight and Friday. The main concern may be overnight tonight into Friday morning when there is some signal for training convection along or just ahead of the sagging front. With plenty of disagreement on the overall evolution of convection on hi-res models, it's hard to be too confident if or where any heavy rain and potential for localized flash flooding would play out. Still, some potential is evident and the WPC has the area highlighted in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall/flash flooding for tonight and Friday. Highs will reach the mid to upper 80s today before scaling back a few degrees into the low to mid 80s on Friday. Overnight lows tonight will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Dew points will climb into the upper 60s to near 70 tonight and Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2... A shortwave and low pressure will dive through the Ohio Valley Saturday into Saturday night. The front will stall close to our southern counties late tonight and Saturday, and the overall setup has trended a bit farther north in recent model runs. Potential for at least some showers is enough to warrant a 20-40% forecast mention across our south on Saturday. Also have a small shower mention along parts of the western lakeshore late Friday night into Saturday, as some models suggest enough moisture for a few lake-enhanced sprinkles or showers in the ENE flow. The forecast trends drier Saturday night into Sunday, though it's worth noting that some models hint at a few isolated showers on Sunday owing to high pressure building in slower than expected and low pressure still drifting through the Ohio Valley...one small thing to monitor. High pressure does finally build in more firmly by Sunday night and lingers through the first half of the week, providing for a prolonged stretch of mainly dry weather. Temperatures are expected to warm above normal for the first half of next week, potentially into the 90s for highs, especially across Northwest Ohio. There remains a fair amount of ensemble spread regarding how quickly ridging over the central U.S. expands east next week, which will have influence on our temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/... Widespread VFR conditions are being observed across the area this afternoon as SCT diurnal cu have developed over most terminals. Upstream convection has begun to develop and is expected to move east through this evening into the overnight hours. Overall extent of convection is expected to remain scattered, making it difficult to pinpoint a potential arrival time of storms at terminals. KTOL would be the first impacted this afternoon with at least VCTS expected. If showers do impact terminals, conditions may briefing diminish to MVFR visibilities. On Friday, showers and storms are expected to stick around as a weak low pressure system moves into the area. Additional non-VFR conditions are possible with these additional showers, however overall confidence in timing remains low. Opted to handle all convection and showers with TEMPO or PROB30. Winds from the west-southwest this afternoon at 5-12 knots may occasionally gust up to 20 knots, especially across far western terminals. After sunset, winds will become light and variable before gradually transitioning to a more northerly flow on Friday afternoon. Outlook...Non-VFR possible with scattered thunderstorms through Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE... Quiet marine conditions expected as weak high pressure lingers over the area this morning. Southwest winds around 5-10 knots become west during the day with waves generally 2 feet or less. A cold front will sag south across Lake Erie tonight into Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop near the westernbasin late this afternoon before coverage increases across the lake tonight. There is a low chance of thunderstorms producing locally gusty winds and briefly higher wave heights. Winds will turn west to northwest behind the front Friday, then northeast this weekend as high pressure builds north of the lake. Wave should remain 2 feet or less through Friday, with 1 to 3 feet possible in the western basin this weekend. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sullivan AVIATION...04 MARINE...Saunders  648 FXUS63 KIND 091735 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 135 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms possible, mainly this evening into tonight, with damaging winds and heavy rain/localized flooding the primary threats - Additional rain possible at times Friday through the weekend with localized flooding possible - Warmer and drier again next week, though with more modest humidity than experienced the first week of the month && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 938 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A few updates to the forecast this morning. The primary change was to the ongoing cloud cover and patchy fog this morning. An area of dense fog progressed NE into the Indianapolis Metro area this morning, with a few pockets of less than 1/2mi visibility. This has slowly improved over the last few hours, with some lingering low level cloud decks still remaining. Increased heat fluxes throughout the morning should lead to mixing in the PBL and breaks in the sky cover by 11AM. The other changes are related to the evening and overnight thunderstorm chances. CAMs are widely varied on placement and timing on convection later today leading to a lower confidence level in the forecast. That said, the forecast currently is focused on the presence of the nocturnal LLJ as this will be the primary convective forcing. Conceptual models point towards some substance on the N/NE side of this LLJ of which should lead to lower shower and storm coverage north of I-70 this evening, with a quasi-organized line across southern Indiana. Damaging wind gusts and the potential for an isolated tornado are still the expected hazards from 8PM through 1AM. && .DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)... Issued at 257 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 TODAY AND TONIGHT - Aside from some patchy fog in the outlying and favored areas in the light winds and high humidity airmass, expect generally quiet weather this morning, with thunderstorm chances ramping up through the day as the airmass destabilizes and a convectively enhanced upper level disturbance approaches the area. CAMs in general are depicting the evolution of one or more clusters of storms into a linear structure late in the day into the overnight hours tonight, with primarily a concern for a few damaging wind gusts. Deep layer shear is modest but sufficient, and may be enhanced slightly beyond what guidance depicts by the aforementioned MCV. Diurnal timing is not ideal though moderately strong instability should remain in place into the overnight hours - approaching and possibly exceeding MUCAPE values of 2000 J/kg. Seasonably high wet-bulb zero values will limit hail threat to primarily small hail in the stronger cores absent any more discrete convection, which appears unlikely, and while a brief QLCS spin-up cannot be ruled out, damaging winds in a seasonable setting of a cold-pool driven MCS will be the primary concern. Despite precipitable water values approaching 2 inches, well in excess of the climatological 90th percentile, the (mostly) progressive CAM solutions do give some optimism that despite undeniable heavy rain potential, hydrologic threat should be relatively limited with today and tonight's convection, though mesoscale reorientation of the low level environment in the form of boundaries and the larger scale low to mid level flow will always be a concern in such setups, and the slight risk for excessive rainfall day one is certainly reasonable. Overall, current expectation is for a broken line of storms to possibly move into central Indiana during the evening hours, perhaps just prior to nightfall, and push through the area to the east/southeast - with southwestern portions of the area the most likely area for both severe andhydrologic concerns. FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY - Another upper level wave will move slowly through the region Friday into Saturday, though models differ in their handling and intensity of the disturbance. A continued moist airmass will promote at least moderate destabilization, and one or more clusters of storms will be possible Friday into Friday night and perhaps on Saturday as well, though the threat will lessen and shift southward with time, and be focused primarily along remnant boundaries from previous convection, lessening the predictability as time goes on. An isolated strong to severe threat cannot be entirely ruled out, though hydro concerns will likely be slightly more pressing as the area has been decently wet in recent weeks, and the aforementioned plentiful moisture combined with what may be fairly slow storm motions outside of more organized clusters could present a localized flash flood threat - WPC excessive rainfall outlooks outline this well. NEXT WEEK - The predominant story next week will be a reassertion of summertime heat as a brief pseudo-Rex block pattern forms with the western CONUS ridge sliding back eastward atop weak upper level low pressure to our south, gradually reconnecting with the Bermuda high over the southeast. Temperatures will climb back towards the 90 degree mark in spots, though with slightly more reasonable dewpoints than the first week of the month, keeping max apparent temperatures still toasty but far more manageable in the low to mid 90s. The high pressure aloft and at the surface will keep the area dry for the most part, though airmass thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out near peak heating many days. That said, these are quite low predictability days ahead of time and will not merit mentionable PoPs on most days. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 135 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Impacts: - Showers and storms possible at all sites this evening into the overnight Discussion: VFR conditions will remain throughout the afternoon into the evening. After 22Z, a MCV will push into Indiana with a broken line of thunderstorms expected at KHUF and KBMG through 02Z. A remnant boundary behind this MCV coupled with a LLJ will likely lead to additional thunderstorms between 02-08Z overnight. Greatest threat will be at KBMG, but all sites could see a thunderstorm. MVFR ceilings could be possible tomorrow morning, but confidence is low. Winds will be light out of the southwest(200-230 degrees) during the day, becoming variable after 00Z as the MCV pushes through. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Updike AVIATION...Updike DISCUSSION...Nield  668 FXUS63 KLMK 091736 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 136 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Risk of severe storms this evening and tomorrow night. There remains a Slight Risk (level 2/5) mainly west of I-65 and a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) to the east. Storms will arrive later this evening from the west and weaken as they move east overnight. Main impact gusty to locally damaging winds. * These storms will have the capability of producing very heavy rain over a short period of time. Widespread 1-2 inches is possible with locally higher. Slow moving storms could produce localized flash flooding. * Flood Watch: additional Rounds of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall are expected Friday through the weekend along a slow moving frontal boundary. Flash Flooding, including potential for significant flash flooding, could be possible with repeated rounds of heavy rain. * Additional threats of gusty to damaging wind could develop with complexes of thunderstorms moving into the area. Overall confidence is low with regard to timing of these specific threats. * A drier overall pattern looks to take hold for early to middle next week. Look for highs in the upper 80s to near 90. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 403 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The main impacts through the short term will be the threat of severe storms with the main focus on the threat later this evening and overnight. There is also a flash flooding threat for the end of the week through the weekend. Highlighting that there is a potential for significant localized flash flooding as we will see multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall over areas that are still saturated from previous heavy rainfall the last couple of weeks. Multiple shortwave disturbances and potential MCS/MCV will work across the Ohio Valley for the end of the week through the weekend. At the same time, a sfc boundary currently to our north across the Great Lakes, will slowly work southward and stall by the start of the weekend. This will setup a situation where we will have deep moisture over the region as the multiple waves of showers and storms work along this boundary. SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT: The bulk of the daytime hours today will be mainly dry as we will be between the departing system from last night and the next system coming in from the west later this evening and night. Convective development upstream over the Mid Mississippi Valley will occur later this afternoon then work eastward into western and central KY Thursday evening and continue into early Friday morning. SPC still has most locations along I-64 west of I-65 in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) with areas east from Louisville, Bowling Green to Lexington in Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms. As was mentioned in the previous discussion, deep layer shear for organized convection remains between 20-25kt and we likely have amble MLCAPE as we go into the evening and overnight as some of that instability becomes more elevated. With the combination of forward movement of the convection along with water loading from the high PWAT values around 2 inches the threat of gusty locally damaging winds remains the main threat. As storms work from the west-northwest to the east-southeast late this afternoon and evening the storms are expected to weaken as we lose daytime heating. That is why the Slight Risk is more to the west as it will have better instability to work with from daytime heating. This activity is expected to reach the I-65 corridor and north central KY closer to midnight, which will have lower instability thanks to the loss of daytime heating. As we see more waves of convection along similar boundaries there remains a marginal risk for additional strong to severe storms again on Friday. FLASH FLOODING: As was mentioned above, PWAT values are expected to be near if not above 2" not only tonight but Friday and through the weekend. Add to that, we already have very wet and saturated conditions across southern IN and Kentucky from the multiple round of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms going back the last two weeks. Models continue to advertise that some areas could receive 3-7 inches of rainfall through Friday evening with more showers and thunderstorms capable of producing additional heavy rainfall into the weekend. That is why a Flood Watch is in effect until late Saturday night. With this setup, and multiple waves of heavy rainfall working repeatedly over already saturated ground sets up the potential for significant flooding possibilities going into the weekend. Remain weather aware now and into the weekend, share updated weather information for those who may potentially be most impacted and remember to Turn Around, Don't Drown! when and if you come across flooded roads or areas. By the end of the weekend, the last of the convective waves of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms, along with the stalled boundary will push southward and out of the area. This is expected to be followed by sfc high pressure building in from the north to help dry us out. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 403 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Forecast trends for the first half of the weekend continue to remain dry and warm as ridging is expected to build in over the region. Highs will build back into the upper 80s to near 90 Monday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 135 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 As a low pressure system approaches, scattered thunderstorms (50-70% coverage) will overspread the area tonight, bringing periods of reduced visibilities. Ceilings are also likely (60-80% chance) to drop into the MVFR category by around 12z/8am EDT Friday. Convection should be tapering off by around that time, though a few lingering storms are possible (20-30% chance) through the end of the flight period. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for KYZ023>043-045>049- 053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082. IN...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for INZ076>079-083-084- 089>092. && $$ SHORT TERM...BTN LONG TERM...BTN AVIATION...JRB  656 FXUS64 KBRO 091735 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1235 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1222 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 * Hot summer conditions continue through the week. Moderate (level 2 of 4) risk of heat-related illness each day, mainly in the Valley becoming more widespread this weekend. Heat indices will climb to between 100 and 110 degrees each day. * Daily rain and thunderstorm chances will increase from 10-25% today to 25-50% Friday/Saturday. While severe weather is not expected, any storms that develop are capable of heavy to torrential rainfall, gusty winds and small hail. * There is generally a low risk of rip currents at area beaches likely increasing to moderate this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A seasonably hot forecast on tap for deep South Texas with daily chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms and breezy afternoon winds. An inverted trough at the surface will continue to push deep tropical moisture northward today into this weekend, gradually increasing rain chances. Convection over the Gulf slowly heading northward may bring isolated showers and thunderstorms late this morning. Depending on coverage (ie, lesser coverage and more surface heating during the morning), isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze are possible this afternoon. Rain chances increase to low-moderate (20-50%) Friday and Saturday as PWATs climb to 2.0 to 2.3 inches. Most activity is anticipated in the afternoon along the sea breeze or along outflow boundaries. While widespread flooding is not anticipated, storms will be capable of producing efficient rainfall rates and localized heavy downpours, especially under slow-moving or training convection. Given relatively dry antecedent conditions and high flash flood guidance, any flooding concerns should remain localized, though isolated nuisance flooding in poor drainage areas cannot be ruled out. Rain chances taper back to isolated coverage Sunday into early next week as ridging builds over central CONUS, shifting deeper moisture away from the region. Confidence decreases late in the period as guidance continues to differ on the evolution of an approaching frontal boundary. Temperatures will remain seasonable through the forecast, with afternoon highs generally in the mid to upper 90s (upper 80s along the coast). Combined with persistent Gulf humidity, peak heat index values of 104 to 110 degrees will support a moderate risk of heat related illness. Along the coast, long-period swell and astronomical tides may increase risk of rip currents and further narrow beaches near high tide. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 An area of convection just offshore the Lower Texas coast has resulted in VCTS reported at KBRO at this time, though the closest detected lightning has been around 45+ SM to the east. PROB30s have been introduced to the 18Z TAF cycle as the moisture over the Gulf begins to work its way inland via the seabreeze boundary; ongoing cloud cover could result in VCSH for KBRO and KHRL later this afternoon and into the early evening hours, yet abundant sunshine and enhanced inland instability may lead to VCTS at KMFE. Chances of rain decrease into the later evening and early night hours tonight before increasing back to a low chance late tonight and into tomorrow afternoon for KBRO and KHRL as showers and thunderstorms develop. Southeasterly winds of around 10-15 knots, with gusts up to around 20-25 knots this afternoon decrease back to gentle tonight into midday tomorrow as VFR conditions prevail, though brief periods of reduced instability are possible from potential heavy rain within showers and thunderstorms that develop. && .MARINE... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Moderate southerly to onshore flow with slight seas persists today. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each day into the weekend, bringing briefly gusty winds, heavy rain, and elevated seas. This weekend, slight seas build to moderate into next week with increasing swells. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 78 92 81 94 / 40 40 10 10 HARLINGEN 75 93 78 95 / 30 40 10 20 MCALLEN 78 96 81 98 / 10 30 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 76 96 79 99 / 10 20 10 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 87 82 88 / 50 40 20 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 90 80 92 / 40 40 20 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...65-Irish  810 FXUS63 KGID 091739 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1239 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - After morning showers/storms dissipate, dry conditions are expected through at least early evening. - Weakening storms arrive from the west late this evening. There is a low chance (5%) for a few strong to marginally severe wind. - Isolated thunderstorms remain possible on Friday, but most areas will stay dry and severe weather is unlikely. - Mostly dry conditions and gradually warming temperatures are expected through the weekend and into next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 As of early this morning, isolated showers and thunderstorms continue to develop east of Highway 281, with an additional cluster of storms between Lexington and North Platte slowly moving eastward. This convection has been more pesky than anticipated, but CAMs still suggest that it will mostly dissipate by around sunrise. That said, recent runs of the HRRR do suggest potential for an isolated storm or two to persist through at least mid-morning. At any rate, severe weather remains unlikely with this activity. After this activity clears, dry conditions are expected for the rest of the daytime (and most of the evening as well). Behind the cold front that moved through Wednesday evening, temperatures are expected to be a solid 5-10 degrees cooler than with a light northeasterly wind. Convection should blossom over the Nebraska panhandle down into eastern Colorado this afternoon and evening, gradually moving eastward with time. CAMs suggest this could reach our western zones by around 10pm, but should be on a weakening trend as it does so. Nevertheless, some marginally severe winds (and possibly some smaller hail) are possible, mainly in portions of northern Kansas and west of Highway 183 in Nebraska. Friday looks to remain mostly dry, although an isolated storm or two remains possible, possibly aided by convective outflow from the previous night. Convective parameters could maybe support a few strong storms, but the overall threat for severe weather is low. Dry and gradually warmer weather is still on tap for the weekend and into next week. That said, the timing of the potentially warmest days continues to shift later into the week, and the most intense could actually end up remaining to our north. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Tonight and Thursday... A cold front, currently draped across northern Nebraska, will later be expected to dip southward into much of south central Nebraska this evening and later on into north central Kansas overnight. A few storms will be expected to fire up along this front between mainly 6PM and 3AM as the front drifts southward. In addition, a cluster of scattered storms (recently observed cumulus expanding across northeast Colorado) will later be expected to roll in from off the High Plains. These storms will possibly merge with activity developing along the cold front, expanding the coverage of and extending the time of lingering storms through the early morning hours of Thursday. The latest high-resolution ensemble forecast (HREF) guidance has recently backed precipitation potential off by around 20% with a now a more broad range forecast of 30-70% PoPs across the area for tonight. Both the HRRR and NAMNEST models have come in a bit drier (more scattered storm coverage) and continue to diverge on when and where the best storm potential will come. The HRRR is more aggressive with the earlier convection occurring along the cold front between mainly 5PM and midnight. As result, the HRRR keeps the bulk of the storms mainly north of I-80. The NAMNEST on the other hand is more aggressive with theovernight convection rolling in from the high plains. As result, it keeps a majority of the storms concentrated south of I-80 and later in the night (2-8AM). In reality, the best scenario tonight would likely be a combination of the two scenarios where a few storms do initially form along the front and approach later in the night from the west. Given somewhat favorable conditions for thunderstorm maintenance (1,500-2,5000J/kg of MUCAPE with 25-40kts of bulk shear), it is more than reasonable to suspect that a few of these storms would be able to take on some strong to severe characteristics. Though hail up to the size of half dollars may be possible, the hail threat will mainly fall within the initial storms firing up along the front. The main severe threat tonight, however, will likely be the potential for gusty winds up to near 70MPH, especially within storms racing in from the west. The main uncertainty for severe weather this evening will be if the storms firing along the front earlier in the evening/night inhibit the severe potential for the later storms coming in from the west. There is somewhat of a concern if the convection along the front may undercut the severe threat overnight to a degree, though the presence of a steady 20-30kts low-level jet across north central Kansas may also play a small role. In addition, the merging of these two storms clusters could create an expansive area of heavy downpours. The possibility of 1" per hour rainfall rates (1.5-1.8" PWAT values) mixed in with the potential for multiple waves of thunderstorm activity could bring meaningful precipitation amounts (up to 1-2+") to a handful of locations (10- 20% of the coverage area). The Weather Prediction Center has also introduced a slight risk of excessive rainfall (15-40% chance of rainfall amounts exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a given point) to the full area. Given the overall decrease in expected storm coverage, the flash flood potential has also overall decreased some as well. Beyond the precipitation chances tonight, the light to steady surface winds (5-15MPH) will back from the southerly directions this afternoon to an easterly one overnight. Cooler temperatures behind the cold front will drop highs to the mid 80s to low 90s for Thursday. Though the potential for severe weather returns Thursday night (Marginal risk for western and southern portions of the area), the overall storm coverage may likely be more isolated and concentrated towards far west/south central Nebraska and north central Kansas. A few storms, again racing out from off the High Plains just after 10PM, will have to potential to clip a few western/southern portions of the area. These storms, given the time of night, will probably be on a downward trend, leading us to speculate that the severe threat should mostly be more isolated rather than widespread. Friday into Next Week... Though one final low-end chance for storms does lie Friday night (10- 30% chances), the main story Friday into next week will be the heat. Highs Friday through the middle of next week will begin a gradual climb from the mid to upper 80s to the low to mid 90s. This warm up will come as a massive ridge is favored to form across much of the central U.S. and intermountain west regions starting on Saturday. This ridging pattern is in good agreement within the long-range ensembles to stick around for most if not all of next week (>80% confidence). The presence of this massive ridge should bring warm, subsiding air to the region that will work to thwart off most of the precipitation potential next week. (The LREF {Long Range Ensemble Forecast} only shows a 10-40% chance for at least 0.1" of precipitation through the week). The main uncertainty at this time will be for how substantialthe warmup will become (will highs next week peak in the upper 90s or low 100s?). What does look almost certain will be the presence of a streak of 90+ degree days. The only forecast element that could keep such a streak from taking place would be from a rogue daytime thunderstorm or excessive cloud cover that manages to peak in (not very likely to occur underneath such pattern). && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Though a few low-level cumulus cloud around 2,500ft have managed to bubble in this afternoon, mainly around KEAR, bases are not expected to become broken. VFR conditions outside of any thunderstorms influence, should remain VFR through the period. A few storms running in from off the High Plains region tonight (after 4z) will near KEAR around 5z. It is uncertain how long these storms will last before dissipating so the mention of thunder remain out of KGRI for now. Either way, these likely non-severe storms will be expected to be in the stages of dissipating across the 3z-9z timeframe. A few scattered showers may linger around through the early morning hours with a low- end chance for a few weak thunderstorms to develop between 12-18z (15-30% chance). Winds will remain light and later variable for much of the 18z TAF period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Mangels DISCUSSION...Stump AVIATION...Stump  794 FXUS65 KSLC 091739 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1139 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1104 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026... - Another round of isolated thunderstorms will develop in vicinity of I-80 tomorrow over the higher terrain, capable of producing strong outflow winds over 50 mph. - Gusty winds and low relative humidity will combine to produce areas of critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon and early evening Thursday over portions of southern Utah. - The most significant heat wave thus far this season will develop over the weekend with high temperatures challenging daily and monthly records Saturday and Sunday. Most valleys and some mountain valleys have a greater than 60 percent chance of seeing HeatRisk values in the red (Major) range, bringing an increased chance of heat-related illnesses. - Confidence is increasing the monsoonal moisture will move into the area by the middle of the upcoming week, though details of which days have a higher chance of flash flooding have yet to come into focus. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1104 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026... A slightly drier air mass will begin to make its way into the area tomorrow under southwest flow aloft, with the most notable drying over southern Utah. With lingering moisture over northern Utah and another subtle shortwave trough on track to move through during the afternoon, anticipate the development of at least a few showers and thunderstorms, though coverage will likely be a bit less than recent days. As the airmass continues to dry and strong high pressure builds substantially over the western United States, confidence is high in temperatures across Utah and southwest Wyoming shooting up to record challenging levels for Saturday and Sunday. Guidance continues to show the center of the ridge over Utah on Saturday and just east of the area on Sunday. Guidance has, if anything, gone up with regard to the forecast compared to yesterday, with the majority of valleys and mountain valleys showing at least a 60 percent chance of red (major) HeatRisk for both Saturday and Sunday. It seems all but certain that daily temperature records will be broken, with some monthly and (in the case of the Cache Valley) all time records forecast to be broken. Given this and many valley low temperatures staying in the 70s overnight, this will predictably bring a quite increased chance of heat related illnesses over the weekend. Given the high confidence in the forecast, have gone ahead and issued an Extreme Heat Watch for all of those areas with at least a 60 percent chance of seeing HeatRisk values in the red, which includes just about all valleys (lower Washington county excluded) and many mountain valleys. As the forecast comes in clearer focus over the next couple of days, upcoming shifts will make decisions about advisories and warnings. With southerly flow expected to increase over the area for the early and middle part of the upcoming week, models continue to indicate a high likelihood of monsoonal moisture returning to the area, bringing temperatures down and rain chances up. While this would decrease the fire danger, it brings an increased potential for flash flooding, particularly for southern Utah. The ECMWF ensemble probability of >1" of precipitable water, for example, indicates a 60-80% of that magnitude of moisture sitting over the entire Great Basin for a week or more starting next Tuesday. Details of which days have the best chance of flash flooding have yet to be ironed out, as that will likely involve timing of weak shortwave impulses (if any), which cannot be ascertained this far out in time. && .AVIATION... KSLC...Showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop over the Oquirrh Mountains after ~20-21z, but will likely stay south of the terminal through the afternoon. However, there is still a ~20% chance that a shower or thunderstorms does drift over the airfield before 02z. Gusty outflow winds are more likely to produce an impact, potentially resulting in a wind shift to gusty southerly/southwesterly winds as early as 23z (10% chance of exceeding 40kts briefly). Winds will become lighter and terrain- driven after 02z, becoming light and variable at times overnight. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop after 19-20z across portions of Utah north of I-70 and primarily along/south of KENV-KSLC-KEVW. These storms will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds generally 20-30kts, though stronger storms could result in gusts exceeding 45kts (10% chance). Winds could kick up some BLDU, resulting in temporary VIS reductions. Showers will likely diminish by 02z. Across southern Utah, breezy southwesterly winds are expected this afternoon with mostly clear skies. && .FIRE WEATHER, Issued 400 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026... Drier air will continue to spread into the area through the rest of the week under a west to southwesterly flow aloft. Humidities will trend downward across the area and overnight recoveries will become increasingly poor, especially across central and southern Utah. Showers and thunderstorms across portions of northern and central Utah today and tomorrow will become more isolated in nature, although gusty outflow winds will continue to be a threat. Additionally, breezy conditions will combine with low humidities once again to create critical fire weather conditions today, mainly across southern Utah, with at least a localized threat continuing into tomorrow. As high pressure builds back into the area for the weekend into the beginning of next week, dry and very hot conditions can be expected. Temperatures are very likely to reach at least 100 degrees in most valleys over the weekend, while relative humidities in the single digits will be common. However, the pattern still looks favorable for moisture to increase into the area beginning early next week as the high pressure shifts east of the area. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Extreme Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 6 AM MDT Tuesday for UTZ101>108-114-116-118>121. Extreme Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 6 AM MDT Monday for UTZ115-122-128>131. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ495-496-498. Red Flag Warning from noon Friday to midnight MDT Friday night for UTZ495-496-498. WY...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 9 PM MDT Monday for WYZ021. && $$ PUBLIC...Van Cleave AVIATION...Cunningham FIRE WEATHER...Cheng For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  873 FXUS63 KDVN 091741 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1241 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a chance (20-40%) of scattered showers and isolated storms today and Friday. Heavy downpours and gusty winds up to 40 mph will be the primary hazards. - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions likely for much of next week, with increasing heat and humidity levels. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Scattered showers and storms that brought gusty winds between 30-50 mph generally north and west of the I-380 corridor and heavy rain across Benton county last evening, has since dissipated to very light showers. Water vapor imagery shows subtle shortwaves aiding in additional showers developing over central IA and southwest WI at the moment. Finally, a strong LLJ is supporting a large area of storms just west of the KC metro over northeast KS this morning. A cooler and cloudier day is expected with scattered off-and-on showers this morning. In addition, residual outflow boundaries from last night's convection and any breaks in the cloud cover will allow for more scattered storm potential this afternoon/early evening. Trying to pin down where and when these may occur is difficult in this pattern and given the wide array of model solutions decided to go with area- wide 20-40% PoPs. However, not all areas should expect rain today. Forecast soundings show a largely un-capped environment but a rather marginal CAPE/Shear overlap for severe potential locally. Thunder may also be hard to come by with weak mid-level lapse rates and the 00z REFS 1-hr thunder progs (40%) mostly confined to our southeast over central IL. Nonetheless, if a few storms do occur brief heavy downpours and gusty winds up to 40 mph would be possible in the strongest cells. Any activity to diminish quickly after sunset. Temperatures will also be a challenge today, with cloud breaks and precip duration possibly throwing a wrench in the forecast. Highs to top out in the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows, to drop into the mid to upper 60s. Friday will see another shortwave move across the central Plains and bring more precipitation chances to the region. However, the timing, strength, and location of this wave is still quite uncertain. Some scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible but the severe weather risk appears minimal at this time. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 This Weekend...building heights aloft and high pressure overhead to bring largely dry and seasonable temperatures. Latest NBM loaded some lingering slight/chance PoPs across west central IL on Saturday that is likely a result of the 00z NAM outlier solution. I expect these to decrease further with future forecasts. Humidity levels should also be more tolerable with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Next Week...latest deterministic and ensemble solutions still continue to show a large anomalous upper ridge building into the central CONUS. The center of this high to be over the central Plains and if it gets to 599dam as suggested by the 00z GFS, it could become a top 10 sounding for 500mb heights at OAX or ABR! Locally, this will bring a high confidence forecast of dry conditions, above normal temperatures, and building heat. Factoring in the maturing crops, heat indices in the mid 90s to low 100s appear very plausible for several days. More heat headlines may be needed for at least a portion of the area next week. Apparent T probabilities of 95 degrees or higher off the LREF (100 member ensemble of the GEFS/ENS/GEPS) are in the 40-60% range Tuesday-Thursday. Taking a look at the WPC experimental heat risk product, moderate impacts are possible Tuesday and Wednesday next week. This would include those who are the most sensitive to the heat. The latest CPC 8-14 day hazard outlook also maintains a Moderate (40-60%) risk of extreme heat for most of the CWA July 16th-18th. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 General VFR conditions are expected through the entire TAF period outside possible MVFR conditions from -TSRA and low visibility at KBRL this afternoon (20-30% chance) and KCID and KMLI overnight (30-40% chance). There will also be a wind shift over the period from westerly flow to northeasterly, but the speeds should be light between 3-7 knots. In terms of cloud cover, it is a mix bag over the next 24 hours, but the cumulus that develop near the surface are expected to be FEW to SCT outside the -TSRA mentioned above, so VFR should prevail. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gross LONG TERM...Gross AVIATION...Delaune  862 FXUS63 KLOT 091741 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1241 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms are expected at times through this evening. These storms will be capable of locally heavy rainfall which may lead to flooding, particularly if they stall or redevelop over areas hardest hit from last weekend. - The strongest storms will also be capable of gusty to locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening, greatest threat south of I-80. - Mainly dry and warmer weather is expected this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The earlier complex of thunderstorms approaching from eastern IA/southwest WI has mostly eroded with only a few areas of rain remaining. Not currently expecting any additional lightning through the remainder of the overnight hours with this activity but will still have to keep an eye on the remnant MCV moving into northwest Illinois but it should move out over the lake already by 7-8 AM. Earlier warm advective showers southwest of the metro managed to produce a few lightning strikes but have since decreased in coverage. Still can't rule out a few spotty showers south of the Kankakee River Valley through daybreak. Attention then turns to a second MCV moving across central Iowa. This feature is expected to progress east toward the area through mid morning. Concerns are that this could lead to an earlier "first round" of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm development from mid morning through early afternoon (30-40 percent chance). Forecast soundings show a largely uncapped environment here locally already after 9-10 AM so any forcing for ascent (such as with an MCV) would support thunderstorm development. Model guidance has been struggling with handling these smaller scale mesoscale features and have based the first 12 hours of the forecast largely on radar, satellite, and observational trends. As the aforementioned MCV begins to shift southeast out of the area toward mid-late afternoon, additional thunderstorm development may then occur within the vicinity of a residual outflow boundary or convergence axis situated across northern and northeast Illinois. Exactly where this boundary ends up as well as what the coverage of showers/storms will be remains lower confidence, at least initially given a potentially slower arrival of the parent mid-level vort/wave (which is still out over northern NE/southern SD). Suspect that coverage may remain more isolated to widely scattered during the afternoon until the wave arrives leading to increasing coverage during the evening (potentially still over portions of the Chicago metro) before gradually shifting south and east and out of the area overnight. The primary hazard with any thunderstorms today (from mid morning through this evening) will be localized heavy rainfall. PWATs in the upper end of climatology (2"+) will be supportive of instantaneous rainfall rates in excess of 1-2"/hr. Given the increased susceptibility for flooding in many areas after last weekend's multiple rounds of heavy rainfall, will continue to message the localized threat of flooding. In spite of generally weaker shear, precip loaded downbursts will remain possible with the strongest storms which could produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts (40-60 mph). The greatest threat (and level 1 out of 5 threat for severe weather) is greatest for areas well south of I-80 but can't fully rule it out areawide. In the wake of our showers and storms a backdoor cold front is expected to move inland off Lake Michigan late in the evening. This may bring a period of fog and/or very low clouds across much of the metro through early Friday morning, some of whichcould end up locally dense. Something to keep an eye on with later forecasts. Looking ahead to Friday, additional convectively augmented shortwaves are expected to move across the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valley regions. Think that the majority of the shower and storm coverage with these features will remain largely south of the area but have maintained 20-40% chances for areas south of a Peru, IL to Rensselaer, IN line in case they end up a bit farther north. While a few diurnally driven showers can't be ruled out on Saturday, upper level ridging expands across the central CONUS over the weekend into early next week which should lead to mainly dry conditions into the first part of next week with temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90. Given we will be on the northeast periphery of the ridge we will have to monitor the potential for thunderstorm complexes rounding the ridge across the broader region toward midweek. Petr && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Aviation forecast concerns for the 18Z TAFs: - Scattered convective SHRA/isolated TSRA likely across terminals especially late afternoon into early/mid evening. IFR/low-MVFR vis possible in brief heavy rain. - MVFR ceilings develop late tonight with a period of IFR possible toward daybreak. Fog also possible from Chicago Lake Michigan shore west/northwest with MVFR/IFR vis possible. Improvement to VFR expected around midday Friday. - Weak cold frontal passage this evening will shift winds to the N/NE. NE winds persist through Friday. A weak mid-level circulation (remnant MCV from overnight convection to our west) was tracking east across northern IL at midday, atop a moist low-level air mass ahead of a weak, slowly- approaching cold front. Scattered showers have been percolating near and ahead of the weak MCV, though extensive cloud cover and weak lapse rates have limited the depth of this convection and no lightning has been observed near the terminals at this time. Shower and eventually isolated thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase somewhat during the mid-late afternoon hours however, as a low-amplitude mid-level wave and the weak cold front approach during our peak diurnal warmth. Thus the greatest TSRA potential for the terminals looks to be from late this afternoon into early this evening, though coverage will likely remain only widely scattered. Have trimmed TS mention to VC/PROB30 based on these expectations. Scattered SHRA may persist into the overnight hours, as the weak cold front eventually moves slowly through the area. Modest west-southwest winds are expected to turn north-northeasterly behind the front overnight, and remain north-northeast through the day Friday. High-res guidance continues to support fairly extensive MVFR ceilings after midnight behind the front, which may linger as late as midday Friday. Guidance also indicates the potential for a period of IFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR fog from the IL Lake Michigan shore north and west during the predawn hours, and have included a tempo mention for this. While visibility should improve a few hours after sunrise, ceiling improvement to VFR may not occur until midday. Ratzer && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  887 FXUS64 KOHX 091741 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1241 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1238 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire CWA from 1 PM Thursday to 6 PM Sunday. Remember to Turn Around, Don't Drown if you encounter flooded roadways. - A marginal risk for severe weather (level 1/5) exists for Middle Tennessee through Sunday. Primary hazard is damaging winds, but this is secondary to flooding potential. - Drier conditions expected next week, with continuing diurnal showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1139 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 An MCS around St. Louis is making its way SE this afternoon, with plentiful outflow boundaries and diurnal cu visible on satellite imagery. Still expecting today to get into the mid 80s to low 90s. WAA will continue for the area through Saturday aloft, but the temperatures will have to contend with the precipitation. Despite this, we will still have heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s both Thursday and Friday. SPC has placed the area in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for today and Friday. Main hazard from this is damaging winds for the afternoon today, however, as we shift into the overnight hours our threat will shift as well. As a shortwave trough interacts with an increasing 700mb LLJ in Middle Tennessee, moisture in the atmosphere will increase as well, providing a prime opportunity for flash flooding overnight. The flood watch across our area remains in effect through the weekend to account for other rain chances, but tonight will be a decent threat given how the ground responded with this morning's thunderstorms. Into Friday afternoon and evening, things will shift to more isolated to scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms, but these will also pose a flooding risk with torrential rain expected in stronger thunderstorms. Marginal is the best word to describe our severe risk, as shear remains in the barely double digits which is far below what is necessary for sustained storms but CAPE is high across the region. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1139 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Into the weekend, as various rain chances continue to careen through Middle Tennessee, chances for flash flooding will be on the rise. Remember to Turn Around, Don't Drown if you encounter any flooded areas. NEVER attempt to drive through them, as you don't know how deep the water truly is! We could also see some isolated severe storms through Sunday, as we are in a Marginal (level 1 out of 5) outlook for severe weather from SPC through the weekend. Similar setups to what's going on in the short term, with the addition of some remnant outflow boundaries from previous storms. Hazards right now look to be mainly gusty winds and heavy rain, resulting in flash flooding. Into next week, things look warmer, yet drier. I don't mean fewer rain chances, I mean less humidity. Walking outdoors will no longer feel like walking through a swimming pool, with heat indices forecasted to be close to air temperature through mid-week next week. Unfortunately, it does appear as rain chances will continue as diurnal showers and thunderstorms are pervasive in the forecast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions this afternoon with scattered CU showing on satellite imagery. Pop up storms will once again develop this afternoon. Another round of showers and storms push into Middle TN from the NW overnight, after 04z. By Friday morning, additional showers and storms work through Middle TN, with any organized activity gone by 18z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 73 90 74 88 / 50 70 80 90 Clarksville 74 89 73 88 / 60 70 70 80 Crossville 68 83 68 81 / 30 80 90 90 Columbia 73 90 73 88 / 30 60 70 90 Cookeville 70 85 70 83 / 40 90 80 90 Jamestown 68 83 68 82 / 40 90 100 90 Lawrenceburg 72 88 72 86 / 30 60 70 90 Murfreesboro 73 90 73 88 / 40 70 70 90 Waverly 73 89 73 87 / 50 60 70 80 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TNZ005>011-023>034- 056>066-075-077>080-093>095. && $$ SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Cravens  917 FXUS62 KMLB 091742 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 142 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - A Heat Advisory has been issued for all East Central Florida from 11 AM through 8 PM for peak afternoon heat indices up to 110F. - Hot through Saturday, especially across the north where high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will keep heat indices in the mid to upper 100s, with widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk impacts. - Below normal rain chances 30% or less continue through Friday, then rain chances pick back up closer to normal 30% to 60% from the weekend into early next week, before decreasing again. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Today-Tonight...The weak surface pressure ridge axis from the Atlantic High slowing lifts from South Florida towards North Florida, under a high pressure ridge in roughly the same spot. Weak southerly low level flow becomes more variable, allowing the sea breezes to march inland at roughly the same rate, slightly favoring the west coast breeze and the east coast breeze from the Cape south, and colliding across the interior late in the evening. Dry air continues to filter in, knocking rain chances back to just 20% from the Orlando Metro to the Cape north (with the sea breeze collision being the primary focus), and less than 20% to the south. The environment will support rapid updraft growth for deep convection that manages to develop, and the dry air could enhance downdrafts. Primary storm hazards will be frequent to excessive lightning, gusty winds 40-55 mph (with a very low chance for locally high winds to 60 mph), and torrential downpours. Generally expected a late start for storms after 6 PM, but a few could pop around 4 PM. While drier as has lowered dew points a few degrees, temperatures are forecast to creep up a few more degrees, with afternoon highs in the M-U90s across most of East Central Florida, within a couple degrees of daily high temperatures records for a few locations (see Climate section below). Resulting peak afternoon Heat Indices will be near to above 108F, up to 110F along the I-95 corridor in Volusia, Brevard, and adjacent portions of inland counties. Widespread Major with areas of Extreme HeatRisk impacts are anticipated. A Heat Advisory has been issued for all East Central Florida from 11 AM to 8 PM. Never leave children or pets unattended in a hot vehicle. Look before you lock! Take frequent hydration breaks if outdoors, and seek the A/C or shade if you feel unwell. A Moderate risk of rip currents continues at the beaches. Always swim near a lifeguard, and never swim alone. Friday-Saturday...The weak surface ridge axis stays more or less over Central Florida, continuing light southerly to southeasterly flow. Very dry air Friday plus a weak onshore component shifts the meager 20% rain chances well inland for most of the area, except to the south where the arrival of higher moisture increases rain chances to 20-30%. High temperatures remain in the M-U90s for most of the area, but the drier air shaves a few degrees off peak afternoon heat indices Friday, bringing them more into the L-M100s. A bit more moisture filters up into Central Florida Saturday, increasing rain chances closer to normal (30-60%), but also nudging peak afternoon heat indices back up towards Heat Advisory criteria near or above 107F. Widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk impacts are forecast both days. Typical afternoon thunderstorm risks continue, though Friday will again be conditional on storms developing. Sunday-Wednesday...Some relief from the above normal heat is expected next week (not that normal Florida heat isn't still gross) as a trough building into thewestern Atlantic suppresses the ridge at the surface and aloft, and drier than normal air continues to advect from the south. Despite the drier air, upper level support from the trough and a front with its associated moisture sagging into the Deep South will support near to slightly above normal rain chances and higher cloud cover, knocking afternoon highs closer to normal in the L-M90s (for what that's worth). Widespread Moderate with areas of Major HeatRisk impacts are forecast, along with peak afternoon heat indices in the L-M100s. && .MARINE... Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Today-Monday...Generally favorable winds and seas. Weak pressure ridge extending to Florida from the Atlantic High will meander north and south across the peninsula through the period, shifting flow from offshore (S-SW) today to more longshore (SW-SE) Friday and Saturday, then back more offshore early next week. The sea breeze circulation will back winds to the S-SE from the afternoon into the early overnight. Wind speeds 5-15 kts, occasionally pushing over 15 kts from the Cape north in the late evenings. Seas 1-3 feet. Low (20% or less) chances for showers and lightning storms through Friday, then chances increase closer to normal (30-60%) through the weekend into early next week, starting near the coast Saturday and Sunday, then expanding into the offshore waters. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 142 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Drier air and ridge aloft will keep shower and storm coverage limited today, with PoPs this afternoon and evening only around 20% north and inland of KMLB. Have therefore kept only VCTS mentioned from 21-01Z for most of these sites, except 20-00Z at KLEE and 21-02Z for KDAB/KTIX. Will continue to monitor trends if any TEMPO groups for TSRA IFR/MVFR impacts are expected. Any convection that develops will diminish into late evening, with dry conditions forecast overnight. Winds will be rather light and variable around 4-6kt, except behind the inland moving east coast sea breeze with winds picking up out of the E/SE around 10-13 knots. Winds then diminish overnight. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Record high temperatures at local climate sites for this week: Site July 9 July 10 July 11 Daytona 97 (2202) 97 (2010) 98 (1980) Leesburg 97 (2016) 97 (2016) 97 (2016) Sanford 100 (2016) 97 (2007) 99 (1969) Orlando 98 (1932) 99 (1980) 98 (1989) Melbourne 96 (2203) 98 (1964) 97 (2010) Vero Beach 96 (2204) 97 (2202) 96 (2200) Fort Pierce 100 (1932) 96 (1981) 99 (1980) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 77 95 77 95 / 20 10 10 30 MCO 77 98 77 97 / 20 20 10 60 MLB 77 92 78 92 / 10 10 10 50 VRB 77 93 77 93 / 0 10 0 50 LEE 79 97 79 96 / 20 20 20 40 SFB 77 97 77 97 / 20 10 10 50 ORL 78 97 78 96 / 20 10 10 50 FPR 76 92 77 92 / 0 10 10 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053- 058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Haley AVIATION...Weitlich  901 FXUS63 KSGF 091741 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1241 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - 30-40% chance for storms Thursday, and 40-70% chance Thursday night. Slight Risk for severe weather and excessive rainfall generally north of Hwy 60 and east of I-49 Thursday and Thursday night. Primary hazards include damaging winds up to 60-70 mph and localized flash flooding. Secondary hazards include hail up to quarters and weak tornadoes. - Moderate HeatRisk Thursday and Friday, but cloud cover and rain chances limit confidence in excessive heat occurring. - 40-75% rain chances continue into the weekend with potential for, yet low confidence in locations of, severe and flooding risks. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 We're beginning the night with clear skies and temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Southerly winds have picked up some speed since last night and are currently up to 10-15 mph. An MCV and associated convection is currently making its way across eastern Nebraska and Kansas. It is quickly losing steam as instability drops off and the nocturnal inversion sets in. It is expected to continue weakening as it begins to impact the SGF CWA in the next few hours. Of course, the cloud cover, outflow boundaries, and overall impact on the environment of this early morning activity will likely have implications on the severe round of storms we are expecting later today. Though reinitiation along the trailing boundary is expected this afternoon, CAMs differ in both the timing and location of this development. Some models indicate redevelopment later and farther east than others due to their expectation of a more robust/longer- lasting area/period of cool stable air from the morning convection. The faster the morning activity and its associated cloud cover dissipate, the earlier we may see thunderstorms this afternoon. The early end of the window appears to be around 3-4 PM with most CAMs firing redevelopment by 6-7 PM. Storms appear to form along one or two semi-linear axes of instability/convergence and sweep through the CWA from northwest to southeast. Storms look to clear the southeast CWA boundary by somewhere in the 12-3 AM timeframe. With direct support from the LLJ, damaging winds will be the primary threat with these storms, especially in more organized linear and bowing segments. The hail risk appears to be more limited with the more robust deep-layer shear remaining in small pockets rather than becoming widespread. Hodographs are short, and storms will likely collapse on themselves before they become tall enough to deliver much in the way of hail. With pockets of better shear, though, the tallest storms may be able to produce a few larger hailstones up to the size of a quarter at most. Additionally, there is a low, conditional risk for weak tornadoes and waterspouts. The storm activity would need to sufficiently modify the environment to increase the low-level shear and moisture content, which is of course difficult to predict on the storm scale. For these reasons, the damaging wind threat largely overshadows the hail and tornado threat. Precipitable water values in forecast soundings are impressive, up to 2-2.5", which approaches and even exceeds the climatological max/record in the SPC sounding database. Plenty of instability and the potential for training, along with these high PW values, have prompted a Slight risk for excessive rainfall from SPC. While widespread totals are likely to remain below 0.5 inches, areas that experience the most mature storms and especially training storms may receive 3+ inches of rain in a short time period. One hour FFG ranges from 1.75"-3.00", and this environment will support the potential for 1-3"/hr rain rates. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The boundary responsible for today's mess is progged to stall out across the Ozarks for a couple of days, allowing widespread rain chances up to ~60% through Saturday with lingering precipitation into Sunday. With not much to move or modify things, marginal chances for severe thunderstorms will underlay the PoPs each day. Of course, with FFG likely being met in some places with just the first day in this series of wet days, flash flooding will continue to be a threat with additional rain through the weekend. WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlooks reflect this. The good news is that the precipitation activity will quell the heat for several days, and highs will largely remain in the upper 80s through early next week. However, a signal for a return to uncomfortable heat in the day 8-14 timeframe does exist. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Current satellite imagery depicts only light cloud debris around the TAF sites as a decaying thunderstorm complex exits eastward. As the time period goes on, isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development is expected generally east of the TAF sites generally between 22-06Z, but some storms may sneak into the sites. Have outlined these time periods as PROB30s for now. Otherwise, winds will generally shift from southerly to southwesterly between 18-06Z at 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts at times. Low-level wind shear will also increase overnight to around 40 kts from 230 degrees. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...Flood Watch from 4 PM CDT this afternoon through Saturday morning for MOZ057-058-070-071-082-083-097-098-106. && $$ SHORT TERM...Nelson LONG TERM...Nelson AVIATION...Price  972 FXUS64 KSHV 091743 AAA AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1243 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - High humidity values combined with highs in the low to middle 90s will result in heat indices above 105 degrees for portions of northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma, and southwest Arkansas this afternoon. A Heat Advisory will be in effect from noon through 8 PM. - Quiet and dry weather will continue through the end of the week, with areawide highs in the low to middle 90s. - Showers and storms are expected to return this weekend, continuing through midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The ArkLaTex is sandwiched between an upper-ridge extending from southern California eastward into Texas and a weak trough across the Texas coast into north Louisiana and Mississippi. The ridge will allow for sufficient subsidence to drive temperatures into the mid 90s this afternoon across the ArkLaTex. Dewpoint values may be slow to mix across the I-30 corridor allowing for afternoon heat index values to exceed 105 degrees this afternoon. Thus a Heat Advisory is in effect from noon through 8 PM. Otherwise, the upper-trough may allow for enough instability to spark a few showers and thunderstorms across portions of north Louisiana this afternoon. Upper-trough across the northern gulf to gradually lift north on Friday allowing for convection to develop along the seabreeze boundary with a few showers and thunderstorms possible across portions of Deep East Texas and north Louisiana. On Saturday, the lingering upper-trough across the mid-Mississippi River valley becomes more dominant across the ArkLaTex. Instability associated with the trough combined with a northward surge of moisture from a weakness in the Gulf of America will lead to increasing rain chances areawide. Upper-level high pressure to become firmly established across the northern plains late in the weekend into early next week bringing an easterly upper-flow pattern to the ArkLaTex. An area of low pressure is forecast to retrograde along the southern periphery of the ridge across the Ohio River Valley into Arkansas and eventually into Texas and Oklahoma by midweek allowing for an unsettled weather pattern characterized by periods of widespread rain each day. The added instability will also provide sufficient mixing to limit afternoon temperatures to the upper 80s to lower 90s. /05/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions will continue through the 09/18Z TAF period. A scattered cu field has recently developed early this afternoon across Deep E TX and NCntrl LA, with this weak cu field spreading NE through the remainder of the afternoon. The cu should diminish by/shortly after 00Z, and aside from some thin cirrus possibly spilling into SE OK/SW AR this evening, SKC will prevail this evening through the overnight hours. Some patchy low stratus may develop by/shortly after 12Z across portions of SE and Deep E TX again Friday morning, but should quickly lift by mid-morning, with a weak cu field again developing by mid and late morning across much of the region. Isolated to widely scattered convection associated with a weak seabreeze will spread N into Deep E TX/NCntrl LA shortly after 18Z, and could affect the LFK terminal by early to mid-afternoon. SSW winds 6-9kts this afternoon will become S 4-8kts after 00Z. /15/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. /05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 78 95 78 94 / 0 0 0 20 MLU 77 97 78 96 / 0 0 10 20 DEQ 76 95 76 93 / 0 0 0 20 TXK 78 97 78 96 / 0 0 0 10 ELD 77 95 77 94 / 10 0 0 20 TYR 78 96 78 96 / 0 0 0 10 GGG 77 96 78 96 / 0 0 0 10 LFK 76 95 77 94 / 0 10 10 40 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059-070. LA...None. OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...15  021 FXUS61 KOKX 091745 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 145 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm and localized flash flood threat during the afternoon and evening both today and Friday. Increasingly warm and muggy today and Friday, with heat indices peaking in the lower to mid 90s on Friday. 2) Mainly dry conditions for the upcoming weekend with seasonably warm temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Forecast remains on track, with lead area of showers and embedded thunderstorms approaching the NYC/NJ metro between 1 and 2 pm. This activity is relatively weak as it encounters a weakly unstable and weakly sheared environment. Some of the 00z CAM guidance has initialized this activity fairly well, and does intensify this activity as it approaches NE NJ between 17z and 18z in response to building instability and approaching vort train. Primary threat will be for torrential downpours, with an isolated flash flood threat (10 % prob across NE NJ/NYC metro). Secondary threat of a pulse wet microburst (5 %prob across NE NJ/NYC metro). The flash flood and severe threat decreases moving N and E from the NYC/NJ metro. Otherwise, there continues to remain good agreement on Mid- Mississippi River valley closed upper low shearing towards the region later today, with a resultant weak surface low pressure wave tracking across the northern Mid-Atlantic, and lee/pre- frontal surface trough developing and approaching from the west. These features should be able to provide a trigger/focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms across NYC/NJ metro and N&W in a marginally (locally moderate) unstable and weak shear environment. Severe threat should be limited in this environment, but can't rule out an isolated damaging pulse wet microburst threat, especially if the lower atmosphere is able to destabilize more than forecast. Environment is more conducive to an isolated flash flood threat with high PWATs (2-2.25"), a deep warm cloud layer, and potential for briefly back building storms. Higher flash flood threat appears to be across SE PA/S NJ with higher instability and enhanced moisture transport/convergence with the weak surface wave. Still an isolated flash flood risk is signaled for the NYC/NE NJ metro region in the high res- guidance, depicted thru being on the edge of HREF 10% ensemble prob for 3"/3hr, and HiRes ARW and NSSL WRF indicating max NY/NJ metro neighborhood value of 2 1/2 to 3" in 3/hr in WPC URRD. Given the continued signals in the hi-res guidance, will continue to address in HWO. Diminishing severe/flash flood threat in the late evening in wake of trough. On Friday, northern stream shortwave digs into northern New England, with a bit more in the way of mean troughing across the region, while a convectively enhanced shortwave approaches the region Friday aft/eve. At the surface, this will have a stronger cold front approaching the region in the afternoon/evening. Trigger and focus is once again there for another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms Fri aft/eve, with an isolated severe/flash flood threat. A slightly better severe threat on Friday aft/eve with 30-35kt deep layer shear profile to complement marginal to locally moderate instability environment. Damaging wind gusts would be the main threat. Flash flood threat looks a bit lower than Thursday with slightly lower PWATS (mid-level drying in wake of Thursday pre-frontal trough) and quicker anticipated storm movement. Flash flood threat will ultimately be contingent on moisture pooling ahead of cold front, storm coverage, and potential SW to NE training along frontal boundary. Hi-res guidance is hinting at a potential for more widespread convective activity as compared to Thursday. Temperatures will continue to moderate to near seasonable levels today with highs in the middle 80s. Highs could come close to 90 degrees in the NYC metro and NE NJ with most other spots reaching the upper 80s on Friday, with max heat indices reaching the low to mid 90s. .KEY MESSAGE 2... General model agreement in mean upper troughing sliding across the NE US this weekend and offshore on Monday, while at the surface Canadian high pressure builds down from southern Canada thru the weekend and overhead by Monday. This pattern should keep conditions mainly dry through the weekend with temperatures near seasonably warm levels. The general synoptic pattern could persist into early next week with only a slight uptick in temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mainly VFR as a weak trough of low pressure approaches the terminals. Showers and thunderstorms are currently moving across portions of central NJ. These storm are expected to slide eastward. Additional storms are expected to develop possibly impacting the NYC terminals through 22z. Can not rule out some MVFR cigs ahead of any storms. Any convection will be capable of producing MVFR or lower conditions. Additional TSRA possible again on Friday afternoon. For the 30 hours TAFs, have included a PROB30 group. The far eastern terminals, KISP, KBDR, and KGON, Some IFR or lower fog/cigs are expected tonight. Winds will generally be from the S/SW, around 10-15kts this afternoon, with locally higher gusts in any thunderstorms. Winds diminish tonight and become light and variable. Friday morning, winds start off from the North, with some terminals becoming more Westerly in the afternoon ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments likely for timing of convection both today and tomorrow. A few gusts S/SW 15-20kt possible this afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with brief MVFR to IFR conditions possible. Saturday: Chance of MVFR conditions in any showers that develop, otherwise, VFR. Sunday through Monday: VFR. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions expected today and Fri with modest S/SW flow of 15g20kt. Occasional gusts to 25 kt possible for ocean waters west of Fire Inlet, entrance to NY Harbor, and adjacent southern bays each day with coastal jet development. Seas generally 3 to 4 ft. Sub-SCA conditions likely continue for the weekend into Monday with high pressure building towards and then over the waters. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents persists through Friday, due to a mixture of 1-3 ft S wind wave and lingering 1-3 ft SE/E swells. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NV/MW AVIATION...BC MARINE...NV/MW  996 FXUS64 KAMA 091744 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1110 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Hot temperatures continue to hold for the Panhandles with potential to see triple-digit temperatures this afternoon. - Late afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances continue today through Sat night. Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out. - A dry and hot pattern may return next week with high pressure looking to settle over the Central and Northern Great Plains. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1110 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Hot temperatures under a mid to upper level ridge are expected to continue today and tomorrow. Mid level moisture along with upper level disturbances in the ridge are expected to introduce late afternoon into evening thunderstorm chances. For today though, a bit of negative H7 theta-e advection is progged for the southern TX Panhandle potentially taking away a shot for areas in the southern FA to get any rainfall. For the OK Panhandle and northern TX Panhandle, where better moisture will exist, could potentially see CAPE values upwards of 500-1000 J/Kg. This could allow stronger and higher updrafts to develop and collapse with little shear to work with. This is adding an increased threat for damaging wind gusts compared to last evening. Still not expecting much in way of beneficial rainfall under this pattern. CAMs are looking less excited, especially for counties east of the far western stack of counties in the Panhandles. While Thursday had previously looked better for PoPs across much of the FA, it is now Friday that is looking to be the better day. Once again, highs are expected to be in the upper 90s with the usual warm spots hitting the 100-104 degree range Friday afternoon. Mid- level moisture is expected to stay in the northern combined Panhandles, pretty much areas north of I-40. This area is expected to have a marginal risk for damaging wind gusts once again as better instability will be for storms to strengthen and unleash a good amount of rain into high DCAPE areas. Shear is expected to be slightly better, however, the hail risk is still in question with such warm temperatures aloft in the middle of summer. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1110 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Another round of slight chance to chance PoPs exists Sat night as the pattern continues with subtle variations. Pops drop off after Sat night with a bit of upper level ridge suppression. This will allow the combined Panhandles to come under southeasterly winds at the surface. Leading to increasing Tds and not has high afternoon temperatures Mon into Wed. However, still seeing highs progged in the 90s. Though the NBM is not giving very much in way of PoPs Sunday night onward, would not rule out slight changes in the rain forecast as those days get closer. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions are expected throughout the majority of the 18Z TAF period. The only exception would be the potential for TS conditions at KDHT/KGUY between 00Z and 06Z. VCTS conditions noted for KDHT, with a PROB30 group also for KGUY between 00-03Z for TS potential. VFR conditions should return by 06Z and remain throughout the rest of the TAF period. Winds will be westerly, backing to southerly and then southeasterly/easterly towards the end of the TAF period at 10-20 kts. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...03 LONG TERM....03 AVIATION...29  014 FXUS64 KMRX 091745 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 145 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 141 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected again this afternoon and evening; the main impacts from these storms will be strong/gusty winds, isolated flash flooding, and lightning. - A wet pattern sets up Friday and continues through the weekend, which may pose a more widespread flooding threat. - Dry weather returns for the middle of next week with near normal temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Water vapor shows a shortwave trough located over West TN and the lower OH Valley. This trough will be tracking east through today, and be positioned over East TN by the afternoon. This may result in slightly better coverage of showers/storms than we have had over the past few days. We will continue to have plenty of moisture in the area, with PW in the 1.8-2 inch range. Slow-moving or training cells will pose an isolated flooding threat, and while some gusty winds are possible, they are unlikely to reach severe limits as DCAPE will be limited. As the shortwave trough moves east of our area Thursday evening, a trailing boundary to our north will push southward. The proximity of this boundary along with passing midlevel disturbances will keep showers/storms going into Thursday night despite the loss of heating. A stronger flow in the 850-500 mb layer also develops on Friday, which will bring some better forcing for lift across a larger area. The flow is parallel to the boundary, which will enhance the flooding potential across our northern sections. The presence of the boundary in a very moist environment with passing midlevel disturbances will keep showers and thunderstorms going Friday night and into Saturday. The flooding threat will only increase with this persistent wet pattern, with northern areas having the highest potential. A Flood Watch may be needed with future forecast packages. Neighboring offices have started Flood Watches on Thursday, but for our area, the primary flooding threat for a good portion of the area appears more likely to begin on Friday, so we will hold off at this time. Sunday and Monday a bit uncertain as to whether the front will lift away from the area as a low pressure system tracks along the OH Valley, or if it will remain near our area. The pattern shifts to drier conditions on Tuesday as a large high pressure ridge over the Plains extends east and produces a deep northerly flow across the TN Valley. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 141 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Isolated storms could briefly impact terminals this afternoon, otherwise, main aviation impact will be breezy southwesterly winds with gusts near 20kts at TYS and TRI. Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow afternoon. Confidence is lower in potential for some early morning precipitation, but chances for storms will start to really increase around the very end of the TAF cycle. There is also a low chance brief MVFR cigs develop near TRI in the morning, similar to previous days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 90 73 87 / 10 90 50 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 86 71 84 / 30 90 80 100 Oak Ridge, TN 70 86 70 84 / 40 90 80 100 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 83 67 81 / 40 90 90 90 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday evening for Cherokee-Clay. TN...Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday evening for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell- Claiborne-CockeSmoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen- Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon- Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount- Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-Union-Washington TN-West Polk. VA...Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday evening for Lee- Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise. && $$ DISCUSSION...DGS AVIATION...KRS  114 FXUS63 KDMX 091746 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1246 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog expected over parts of northern Iowa until sunrise this morning. - Showers and weak storms over southern/southwestern Iowa this morning, then the potential for pop up showers and storms into the afternoon to early evening. Severe weather is not expected. - High pressure is expected to set up over the central U.S. this weekend into next week, bringing much warmer temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Radar imagery early this morning continues to show a decreasing trend in showers and storms across Iowa, with very light showers over eastern Iowa and an additional area of showers and weak storms over southwest Iowa. As forcing for lift continues to diminish with the eastern activity, rain showers will likely end within the next hour or so. With the southwestern Iowa activity, which extends into eastern Kansas and northern Missouri, there is much stronger forcing for ascent, paired with support from the low level jet that is nosing into eastern Kansas/western Missouri, as well as moisture convergence to continue producing thunderstorms over this area. Overall trends indicate that while showers and weak storms are expected to continue through the morning over southwest/southern Iowa, the developing MCS will generally remain further south into Missouri through the morning, where any severe weather concern would be located. With any additional rainfall expected to be located in southwest/southern Iowa this morning yet, the Flood Watch over northern/northeastern Iowa has therefore been cancelled. Of note as well is the introduction of patchy fog in the forecast across northern Iowa this morning, as residual moisture from recent rainfall and a period of clear skies with light winds will lead so some areas of patchy fog development. Observations in far northwestern Iowa and southern Minnesota are already showing this, as well as satellite imagery, which should fade before or just after sunrise, especially as cloud cover further west makes its way into the state. For the rest of today, outside of the aforementioned showers and storms grazing southern Iowa, the mid-level shortwave over the region will continue its slow passage eastward through the day, with an area of weak low pressure tracking across Missouri towards the Ohio Valley and a larger area of surface high pressure sinking into the Upper Midwest. As a result, north/northeasterly winds will be common over Iowa, leading to temperatures only a touch cooler as highs are expected in the low to mid 80s. These temperatures paired with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s will allow for instability values around 2000 J/kg overhead by the afternoon, with at least weak shear that could develop pop up showers and storms generally into the afternoon to evening before drying. The weak shear forcing will greatly limit any severe potential with any storms that can develop overhead, with CAM solutions quite varied on coverage and location. Any storms would likely come up and go down quickly, with lightning and gusty winds from collapsing storms the main concerns, as well as brief heavy downpours. Rainfall amounts are expected to be spotty, with amounts generally under and inch if any showers/storms can develop. Will need to keep an eye on the potential for another MCS developing over northern Missouri as CAMS and deterministic model members suggest in the vicinity of the surface low, and the increasing jet into that area as well into Friday morning. Not expecting this to impact Iowa, outside of a low potential for rain showers in the south,but will keep an eye on trends. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Another 500mb shortwave is progged to pass over Iowa Friday before a high sets up this weekend pancakes much of the central U.S. Monday. Once the high sets up, an increase in temperatures is expected with highs making a run for the 90s through the early part of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 MVFR to VFR conditions ongoing across the area early this afternoon with many of the MVFR ceilings flipping back and forth between SCT-BKN coverage. Generally trend this afternoon will be towards MVFR, though some back and forth (SCT-BKN) may still occur at times as pop up showers/storms develop. Confidence in any of these showers/storms impacting a terminal within 5SM is too low to include even prob30s, but will monitor closely. KFOD/KALO/KMCW have the best chance through the afternoon, but still overall chances are around 20%. Patchy fog may once again develop in the northeast overnight, mainly near KMCW/KALO and started with 6SM BR mention, but uncertainty remains in the extent of the patchy fog impacts at the terminals themselves. Winds will be light and variable at times through the period, though winds out of the north to northeast will be most common. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bury LONG TERM...67 AVIATION...05  102 FXUS63 KLBF 091746 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1246 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms is in place for areas west of Highway 83 Thursday afternoon/evening with large hail and damaging wind gusts the main concern. - Some lingering light rain and general thunderstorms are possible on Friday as upper-level troughing remains close by, but no severe weather is expected. - Turning much warmer this weekend with a prolonged period of above normal temperatures likely for much of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 125 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Early morning rain and thunderstorms continue to percolate across western and southwest Nebraska. This is occurring within low-level convergence from residual outflows stemming from late Wednesday night convection. Additional thunderstorms developing off the Black Hills may threaten our northwest zones and be capable of strong outflow winds along with some heavy rain but longevity into western Nebraska is in question so will keep the forecast dry in the predawn hours for these locations. With high pressure nosing in, expect temperatures to fall to the upper 50s to middle 60s. Thursday/Thursday Night...high pressure will shift east into the upper Mississippi Valley and allow east southeasterly flow to resume across the local area. Outside of areas that see recycled air from Wednesday night central Nebraska thunderstorms, should see a narrow plume of richer moisture/theta-e that will work upslope into the southern Nebraska Panhandle and far southeast Wyoming. Afternoon highs should manage to reach the middle 80s for most and upper 80s for some. By mid to late afternoon, thunderstorms should form on the nose of this moisture tongue previously mentioned as it encounters a subtle converging line near or just east of the Nebraska/Wyoming border. Earlier activity is possible off the Pine Ridge into far southern Black Hills should this better moisture nose a bit further north. In either event, believe thunderstorms should be ongoing by mid-afternoon near the Highway 71 corridor with eastward progression allowing activity to reach the local area. While moderate instability should develop to the west, this will decrease fairly rapidly with eastward extent due to a combination of poor mid-level lapse rates and more limited low-level moisture. Thus, while deep-layer shear is stronger as one goes east, the waning instability and increasing low- level capping will inhibit thunderstorm potential for areas east of Highway 83. Consecutive runs of the HREF show this outcome well with measurable rainfall probabilities peaking between Highway 385 and Highway 61 but quickly decreasing as it approaches Highway 83 towards Midnight. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for areas generally along and west of Highway 83 but only a marginal for an additional ~50 miles further east. This aligns well with the forecast so no adjustments appear necessary. Beneficial rainfall appears possible for some locations. NBM output shows 50%+ potential for 0.25" or more rainfall through late evening but shows that hard decline on the east side aligning with the Highway 83 corridor. Believe spotty 0.75" or higher amounts are possible and should favor southwest Nebraska. Lows will fall into the middle 50s west to middle 60s east. Friday/Friday Night...a secondary weak meso high will cross southwest Nebraska with variable winds early in the day. Aloft, more pronounced shortwave troughing with associated height falls will quickly translate east towards the middle Missouri Valley. Though heights will climb during the latter half of the day locally, the proximity to the main h5 trough with amplemoisture supports at least a continuation of light rain/general thunderstorm chances early in the day but diminishing towards the evening. NAM12 guidance suggests generally dry conditions from mid-afternoon on and HREF probabilities are in agreement with this. Will keep the 15-18% PoPs populated from the model blend but should this drier trend hold firm, these will likely be removed with subsequent forecasts. Temperatures aloft remain warm with h85 values in the lower to middle 20s degC and this should allow for near seasonable temperatures even with the lack of stronger boundary layer mixing. Forecast highs range from middle 80s south to lower 90s in the far north. While no precipitation is anticipated in the late evening, lingering low-level humidity should limit overnight lows to the lower 60s for all. These are near to slightly above normal for middle July. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 125 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Saturday into Next Week...much warmer temperatures remain on track as amplifying ridge upstream will spill over the Continental Divide and onto the High Plains. High pressure will build aloft, initially over the Four Corners region early Saturday to central South Dakota by late Sunday night as h5 heights approach 600 dam. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index highlights anomalous daytime highs each day Sunday through Wednesday, though most of the anomalies remain across the Central Rockies up through South Dakota and only skirt the area. This coincides reasonably well with where greatest h5 height anomalies are found with h2 and h5 geopotential heights reaching climatological maximums over the Dakotas and much of Minnesota by early Monday. This will effectively stymie any rain potential for the period, giving us hot/dry/windy conditions. It's worth noting that NBM percentile output has backed off on the expected heat modestly with median values largely holding in the middle 90s now for areas south of the Sandhills while locations along the NE/SD border saw climbs to upper 90s and triple digits, namely Valentine. Overall thinking is largely unchanged: expect heat, potentially significant heat, to establish itself across the Central Plains early next week and persist through the middle of the week at least. Though only showing subtly in NBM output, ridge breakdown should begin sometime Wednesday/Thursday and this may force a cool front south through the area and lead to more seasonable temperatures for the late week...at least briefly. Broad upper-ridging will likely remain across much of the southern CONUS and could build north into the area again by late week. Overall, the cooler signal for Wednesday which is now shown by both deterministic ECMWF/GFS solutions, remains limited confidence but seems reasonable given expected upper-level evolution around that time. Until finer details can be sorted out, stay tuned. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A line of thunderstorms will move eastward across the area this evening. The threat with these storms will be locally strong gusty winds. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail, with surface winds light outside of any thunderstorm activity. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NMJ LONG TERM...NMJ AVIATION...Taylor  209 FXUS66 KPDT 091749 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1049 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures and breezy conditions persist through week. - Elevated fire weather concerns through Saturday. - Warming trend expected next week, peaking Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Current radar and infrared satellite imagery shows dry conditions under clear skies. This is in response to a weak, transient ridge developing ahead of another weak shortwave that will dissipate over the region today. The incoming shortwave will increase winds through the afternoon across the Columbia Gorge and Kittitas Valley as west-northwest winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of up to 35 mph are possible, peaking between 6-10 PM today. Zonal, upper level flow from the west will slightly drop high temperatures from Wednesday, but will still be a couple degrees above normal. The shortwave dissipating over the area is associated with an upper level low pressure system that has dropped from the Gulf of Alaska and will stall off the Central British Columbia coast near Graham and Moresby Islands later this afternoon. It continues its descent on Friday to Vancouver Island as an upper level high pressure off the southern California coast shifts toward the 4 corners region. These movements will allow flow aloft from the west to become southwest on Friday, bringing a slight warming trend across the area to wrap up the week. Winds will also increase slightly on Friday due to the incoming system along the coast, with west- northwest winds of 20-27 mph and gusts up to 40 mph through the Columbia Gorge, and Kittitas Valley. Elsewhere, winds of 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph are likely. Warm, dry, and breezy conditions will keep elevated fire weather concerns across the Columbia Gorge, Lower Columbia Basin, and Kittitas Valley areas through the remainder of the week. Critical conditions will be related to humidities today, with afternoon values dropping into the low to mid-teens across the Columbia Basin and in the low teens to single digits across Central Oregon. Wind becomes more the issue on Friday as afternoon humidities rebound slightly, but increased afternoon winds will extend further into the Basin and Blue Mountain foothills as a result of a stronger pressure gradient between the approaching low pressure offshore and ridge to our southeast. The offshore system is able to tap into marginal subtropical moisture to alleviate afternoon humidity values, as winds stay more confined to the Columbia Gorge and eastern slopes of the Cascades. Currently, the more concern resides on Friday as more widespread breezy conditions are anticipated. The upper level low that stalls off the southern British Columbia coast will weaken late Saturday and slide over the high pressure ridge that traveled from the 4 corners area to the Dakotas on Sunday. Another low will drop along the British Columbia coast to take its place, coupled with remnants of a weak low pressure to its southwest in the Central Pacific. These features, along with the elongated upper level ridge spanning across CONUS, will lead to a warming trend that will peak on Tuesday. Guidance is in disagreement in how long the offshore upper level low will linger before riding up and over the CONUS ridge, which directly relates to how hot temperatures reach on Tuesday. Currently, 67% of ensemble members advertise highs at or above the current forecast, which relates to a stronger incoming low pressure system and staying offshore longer before riding up the CONUS ridge. High temperatures would reach into the mid-to upper 90s across the Lower Columbia Basin and Blue Mountain foothills with this solution. 75 && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...VFR conditions to prevail throughthe period. Breezy winds (12-18kts with gusts around 25kts) will persist at site DLS through this evening, then redevelop tomorrow morning. Site PDT will see period gusts up to 18kts through this afternoon. Otherwise, winds will be light through period. Lawhorn/82 && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather concerns for WA690, WA691, and OR691 are present through Saturday due to winds and low relative humidities. Critical humidities and winds are expected to stay isolated today, primarily over western OR691 and eastern WA690 between 1600-2000. Friday's concerns are more scattered across OR691 between 1400-2000, and may warrant a fire weather product during that timeframe. However, at this time confidence of Red Flag criteria being met is only 40-50%. This will have to be further analyzed over the next 24 hours. Elevated concerns over western portions of WA690, WA691, and OR691 materialize between 1600-2000 on Saturday, but look to stay isolated along the zone's borders. Fire weather concerns relax Sunday onward as light winds are expected, but dry conditions will still be present as afternoon humidities hover around 20-25%. 75 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 88 56 90 55 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 90 61 92 61 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 92 59 95 60 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 92 59 93 57 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 91 60 93 59 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 85 56 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 88 50 88 48 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 89 54 93 55 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 91 53 95 53 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 89 59 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...Heat Advisory from noon Friday to 7 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ050. && $$ DISCUSSION...75 AVIATION...82 FIRE WEATHER...75  291 FXUS65 KFGZ 091751 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1051 AM MST Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS...For most, mainly hot and dry conditions are expected through the end of this week. Chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue over the White Mountain region Thursday and Friday. Monsoonal moisture begins to ramp up over this weekend and into next week, with storm activity pushing back west and north and becoming more frequent. Dangerous heat is expected at the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon and then Glen Canyon through at least Saturday. && .DISCUSSION...Changes in steering flow and the influx of drier boundary layer air over the northern and western zones will lead to fairly quiet and hot conditions over the next 2 or 3 days. These changes are bring driven by a westward relocation and flattening of the ridge that is currently underway. Higher moisture values persist over western New Mexico and southeastern Arizona, meaning the White Mountains will not be fully overcome by these changes and convection will continue in this area. Most other locations will not see any convection for Thursday and Friday, perhaps even Saturday. Over the weekend and into next week, the ridge recenters to our northeast and strengthens dramatically. This will open the door for the moisture pool that is already in place and Monsoon 2026 will begin in earnest by Sunday or Monday. Due to the strength of this ridge, any location that does not see rainfall or enhanced cloud cover will still be quite warm, even for this time of year. EHW products for the Grand Canyon and Glen Canyon will persist through at least Saturday as a result. This is not to say that other lower elevation locations will not be uncomfortable at times, but overnight recovery and less potential for outdoor activity will temper the need for additional products. By early next week, the aforementioned Monsoon 2026 should keep most locations at least 5-10 degrees cooler, likely eliminating the need for heat products. && .AVIATION...Thursday 09/18Z through Friday 10/18Z...Mainly VFR conditions. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/TSRA from 18Z-02Z INVOF the White Mountains. Winds are SW-W 10-15 kts gusting to 25 kts through 03Z, becoming lighter overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected near showers. OUTLOOK...Friday 10/18Z through Sunday 12/18Z...Mainly VFR conditions. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/TSRA INVOF the White Mountains for Friday, spreading a bit further west and north on Saturday. Gusty and erratic winds expected near storms, otherwise daytime winds are SW-W 10-20kts on Friday, becoming light and VRB on Saturday. Winds light and VRB or terrain driven winds overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Most areas will be hot and dry, with daily southwesterly breezes from 10 to 20 mph, gusting from 25 to 30 mph. Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue over the White Mountain region each afternoon, but convection outside of east-central Arizona is unlikely. Saturday through Monday...Remaining hot, with isolated shower and thunderstorm activity on Saturday, then pushing west and north and becoming more frequent Sunday and Monday. Wetting rains are likely from convection by Sunday and Monday. Generally light and variable winds Saturday, remaining light, 5 to 15 mph, but trending southerly for Sunday and Monday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ Saturday to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Sunday for AZZ005. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ006. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...Lewandowski FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  426 FXUS62 KGSP 091755 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 155 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe thunderstorm chances look a little better for this afternoon and again Friday afternoon as the Day 1 and Day 2 Convective Outlooks show an increase to Marginal Risk. The aviation discussion was updated for the 18Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Continued hot and humid east of the mountains into the weekend, but not hot enough to reach heat advisory criteria. If you have outdoor activity planned in the afternoons through Saturday, make sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks to cool off and avoid heat-related stress. 2. Mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be mostly confined to western North Carolina again today with an isolated severe storm possible. Coverage improves for Friday and the weekend, with better chances for loosely organized severe weather. The risk for flash flooding over the mountains will increase into the early part of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Continued hot and humid east of the mountains into the weekend, but not hot enough to reach heat advisory criteria. If you have outdoor activity planned in the afternoons through Saturday, make sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks to cool off and avoid heat-related stress. Although the Bermuda High continues to weaken and be shunted off to the south for the next few days, we retain the typical summertime heat and humidity even in the face of increasing storm chances. Beginning tonight, the western Carolinas are more under the influence of a broad and baggy mid/upper trof that will have several weak short waves rippling through it. The expectation is that storms will be scattered enough through the early part of the afternoon Friday and Saturday to allow significant warmup with temps climbing about five degrees above normal. This could easily not work out depending on upstream convection and remnant cloudiness...more on that below. The combo of forecast high temps and dewpoints is not expected to raise the heat index above advisory criteria, but it will still feel hot, especially Friday. As a northern stream upper trof deepens over the Northeast and a low cuts off across the Midwest, a sfc front is expected to drift south into the region on Sunday. The latest guidance seems to have more of a southward push with the front, being south of the fcst area by Monday morning and then staying south as weak high pressure moves across the nrn Mid-Atlantic Monday then offshore Tuesday. The signal for cold air damming Sunday into Monday looks weak on the new model runs, so confidence is relatively low with the high temp forecast. Whether or not a true CAD unfolds might end up being semantics, as there should be enough cloud cover and a cooler N/NE low level flow from the weak high to the north to keep temps on the cool side of normal. Right now, our forecast highs from Sunday to Tuesday drop down into a range 5-10 degrees below normal. Without strong CAD support, the temps might not get that cool, though. Either way, guidance suggests this will be short-lived and the temps rebound back to typical summer heat by the end of the week. Key message 2: Mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be mostly confined to western North Carolina again today with an isolated severe storm possible. Coverage improves for Friday and the weekend, with better chances for loosely organized severe weather. The risk for flash flooding over the mountains will increase into the early part of next week. Convective clouds are deepening at this hour across the forecast area, with showers and storms developing over the mtns. The environment isn't quite as favorable for pulse-severe storms this afternoon as the sfc-based CAPE is only modest...on the order of 1500-2500 J/kg...but the dCAPE should still be above 800 J/kg east of the mtns. Thus, an isolated severe wind gust producing storm won't be ruled out. In fact, the new Day 1 Outlook has an upgrade to a Marginal Risk east of the mtns. That being said, the CAMs have much better-looking storms well to our north. The storms should die off with the loss of heating this evening. The situation might get more interesting through the weekend as the guidance suggests something of an MCS track from the Mid-MS valley to the Mid-Atlantic starting on Friday. A few members of the 12Z HREF show an MCS coming across the Mid-MS valley later this evening and then toward us overnight, then it would remain to be seen how long/far east it could survive. If the system forms, it could at a minimum leave behind an MCV for outflow that would be a trigger for more storms to develop over our region on Friday. Another MCS could do the same on Friday night and have a better chance for survival all the way east into the mountains. There is much uncertainty and we look to upcoming model runs for clarity. Precip probs have been modified only slightly and will start to relax the diurnal tendency. The main concern with storms will be damaging wind gusts Friday and Saturday, and the Day 2 Convective Outlook already features an expansion of the Marginal Risk across the fcst area. The greater risk will gradually shift to heavy rain and flash flooding into early next week. Sunday should have the best rain chances as the front sags southward, and moisture should be plentiful enough to support an increased risk of flash flooding, but again details remain sketchy. Precip chances should drop once the front moves farther south on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Prevailing VFR through most of the period outside of scattered TSRA this afternoon/early evening. Storms have started to develop to the west and will be monitored. For the time being, a PROB30 has been added for the Upstate terminals based on that upstream convection. Meanwhile, the NC terminals stay the same. The CAMs support an increase to a TEMPO for thunderstorms late this afternoon for KCLT, but we kept the PROB30 to stay in agreement with the public forecast. An amendment is anticipated that will include the upgrade depending on the evolution of the convection to the west at issuance time. Meanwhile, scattered low clouds with a base 050 or higher, and occasional low-end wind gusts from the SW to WSW through peak heating. The storms should die off with the loss of heating, leaving behind convective cloud debris and a light SW wind. No indication of restrictions in the valley around KAVL, so that was left out. Friday convective coverage looks higher, with an earlier start possibly before 18Z. For now, confidence is too low to include, except at KCLT for late afternoon stuff. Wind may be occasionally gusty from the SW once again. Outlook: Better coverage of SHRA/TSRA returns for all terminals Saturday into Monday. Drier conditions should develop Tuesday into Wednesday. Low stratus and/or fog will be possible each morning in the mountain valleys and in locations that see appreciable rainfall the previous afternoon/evening. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ PM  364 FXUS63 KDTX 091754 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 154 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms increase in coverage and intensity while spreading from the Tri Cities and northern Thumb toward metro Detroit today. - Isolated damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall are the primary hazards with the strongest storms this afternoon and evening. The best chance for marginally severe storms is across the Detroit Metro Area and points south. - Dry weather and near-normal temperatures settle in for the weekend. - A new heat wave is on schedule for next week (3 consecutive days of highs 90+ degrees). && .AVIATION... Convection will be the primary aviation concern for the rest of today and early tonight. Several rounds of thunderstorms have already cropped up during the early afternoon hours. A band of showers continues to track south-southeastward, stretching from the Tri-Cities/Thumb to Lansing. This activity should largely remain lightning-free at MBS, although FNT has a chance to get clipped within the next hour by a strong storm tied to the southern end of the precipitation band. Meanwhile, further south, coverage is lower with loosely organized thundershowers that appear to miss the Metro terminals in the very near-term. Storm count will increase by late afternoon with a few multicell storms hitting the southern sites, plus another round potentially affecting MBS/FNT. This comes as a cold front currently draped over northern Lower Michigan tracks southward. Low confidence exists in the timing of any intercept for a specific terminal today; therefore, TEMPOs will continue to address afternoon and evening convection potential. The front slows over southern Lower late this evening by the time it reaches PTK, but any residual convection should be decaying. Unlikely for any activity to persist into the early morning hours on Friday, but still not impossible. Ceilings broadly start off as VFR, with MVFR closer to the frontal boundary. Some signal exists for fog development Friday morning, so added an entry-level MVFR mention. D21/DTW Convection...Scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening, primarily between 19Z and 02Z. Several rounds of storms and/or VCTS possible before Friday morning. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Medium for thunder this afternoon and evening. * Medium for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet this afternoon and evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 DISCUSSION... Showers and a rumble of thunder, ongoing over central Lower Mi at forecast issuance, is sustained by a well-defined MCV shown in composite radar data. It is embedded within the low to mid level moisture axis positioned SW to NE ahead of the surface front. There is also some lingering elevated instability judging by the 00Z DTX and model soundings, an environment capable of sustaining the showers and producing a rumble of thunder through early morning. The forecast is also focused on initiation timing of the new surface based convective cycle as the front settles slowly southward across southern Lower Mi this afternoon and evening. A preferred scenario has an early day round of storms ahead of the front followed by or merging with a late day and evening phase of activity accompanying the frontal passage. The early day phase is tied to differential heating created by the showers leading up to sunrise and a hefty band of cloud debris that lingers during the morning. An outflow boundary in surface analyses has potential to provide a focusing mechanism in the differential heating zone generally north of I-69 as surface instability quickly increases. Model soundings are uncapped and favorable for development around or shortly after 12 PM as HREF mean surface based CAPE increases into the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Thunderstorm clusters move from there southward toward metro Detroit mid to late afternoon while approaching severe intensity on an isolated basis and in line with the SPC Marginal Risk. Multicell organization is reachable in 25-30 kts of westerly 0-6 km bulk shear, although shown in model data to decrease from north to south across the region. Locally heavy rainfall also remains a hazard to highlight as PW rises into the 1.5 to 2 inch range within the moisture axis ahead of the front. The front itself then becomes the focus for a second round of storms that develop back toward the Tri Cities and northern Thumb late in the day and this evening. Intensity will be strongly dependent on recovery of instability before daytime heating wanes after 00Z, however scattered to numerous coverage is expected to fill in along the front as it moves into and south of the I-69 corridor this evening. The surface front/wind shift is then on schedule to move south of the Ohio border early Friday morning. The new 00Z model runs remain in good agreement on this timing, along with a few showers within the trailing mid level frontal zone still over SE Mi through the morning. Chance/scattered coverage looks reasonable in the 00Z NBM forecast update for the area generally south of I-69 Friday morning. The long wave ridge building over central Canada and the northern Plains produces surface high pressure in northern Ontario and Quebec that is strong enough to push the front farther into the Ohio valley Friday afternoon and night. The inbound air mass is slightly cooler and less humid as shown by consensus model projections of surface Td dropping into the 50s Friday night and Saturday. Continued amplification of the mid/upper level long wave ridge is centered over the Plains with a tilt toward Hudson Bay by Sunday. This configuration favors leaning the forecast toward a few days of dry weather while monitoring convective trends to the north. This leads into the weather highlight for early next week tied to a new round of heat on track to increase as the mid/upper level ridge builds into a west to east configuration from the Plains into the Great Lakes. This is in a better position to block Gulf/Atlantic humidity as a limiting factor for heat index, however the strength of the ridge adds confidence to a return of lower to mid 90s in guidance temperatures for the early to middle part of next week. MARINE... This afternoon we expect to have a weak low pressure system trek across North Lower Michigan, bringing the chance for showers and even an isolated severe weather threat from Saginaw Bay down to the Lake Erie shore. The main threat for any thunderstorms that could develop would be wind gusts of 34+ knots. Nonetheless Lake Huron and Saginaw bay can expect light winds veering from the southwest to the north throughout the day, with gusts of 15 to 20 knots possible depending on the positioning of the low pressure. Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie shore can expect light winds as well veering from the southwest to the west throughout the day. Tomorrow looks to potentially bring some modest wind flow to the Lake Huron and Bay area as a modest pressure gradient could develop between a departing low pressure and developing high pressure. This could lead to some enhanced wind flow in the bay depending on the positioning of these systems. Flow is expected to be out of the Northeast at 10 to 15 knots, with gusts of 20+ knots possible in the afternoon/evening hours. Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie Shore look to be more tame with light winds out of the north expected. A high pressure system is expected to develop over the region throughout the weekend, bringing warmer and calmer weather. HYDROLOGY... A slow moving cold front is on schedule to settle through southern Lower Michigan today and tonight serving as the focus for numerous showers and thunderstorms. The greatest coverage and intensity is expected this afternoon and evening with a chance of locally heavy rain across the area. Basin average rainfall of a quarter to a half inch is most likely with a chance of near 1 inch in scenarios with greater thunderstorm coverage. The slow movement of the front could also produce more than one round of thunderstorms leading to localized totals greater than 1 inch within a few hours time. This presents minor urban flooding potential along with ponding of water on roads and in other prone areas. Scattered showers and a chance of thunderstorms lingers into Friday, mainly south of M-59, before coming to an end Friday afternoon. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....KGK DISCUSSION...BT MARINE.......ZB/TF HYDROLOGY....BT You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  392 FXUS63 KMPX 091755 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1255 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated diurnal showers possible Friday. Otherwise the rest of the next 7 days looks dry. - Long duration, potentially significant heat wave moves in this weekend and continues through most of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 433 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 It has been a quiet night with the diffuse cold front that moved through Wednesday now down across northern Iowa and southern WI. You can also see drying and subsidence on water vapor. Though this looks like a good candidate for fog and stratus, we've hung on to a 3k to 6k foo cloud deck that has kept the fog from running wild this morning. All in all, this will be a very nice day, with skies clearing out and highs in the low 80s with dewpoints retreating to the upper 50s to mid 60s. As we go through the day today, a weak cold front will be moving across NoDak. Storms will likely fire along the front late in the day today, with a few showers/storm moving into northwest MN and possibly northwest sections of our forecast area out near Alexandria and Long Prairie late tonight. This diffuse boundary will continue east into MN on Friday, where it will start washing out. However, just enough convergence looks to be left over on this front, that when combined with daytime heating will be enough to spark some isolated showers and storms Friday afternoon, most likely in central MN. This is the one straw we have to grasp at for precipitation chances over the next 7 days. For this weekend, the well advertised and potentially record breaking h5 high begins building in. Those height rises Saturday and Sunday will squash any precipitation chances and begin sending thermometers up into the 90s. By Monday and Tuesday next week, even ensemble means show h5 heights exceeding 600dm in southern MN. In the STC/MPX upper air climate record (1948-present), the max observed h5 height is 598dm. The last time we got there was August of 2023 when the high was...98 degrees. So this will be a hot airmass that builds in next week, just how hot is still uncertain, especially as the h5 heights start to recede Wednesday. However, current soil moisture conditions are not bone dry thanks to recent frequent rains. In addition, we're now entering the peak evapotranspiration season for the corn crop (welcome to corn sweat season!). These two factors will likely make it tough to reach the heights of the top end ensemble members (highs of 100 to 105), but it will still be uncomfortably warm. As for when we'll see relief from the heat, both the GEFS and EPS mean highs for Wednesday-Friday have been trending warmer, so unless we can manage to work some convective complexes this far south mid-late next week (which looks hard to do given our capping and how far north the storm track recedes), which means we're probably looking at the weekend of the 18th and 19th before we start seeing some relief from the heat. See the climate section below for a cautionary note about all those 100s you see models (looking at you ECMWF) cranking out next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Stubborn MVFR cigs are finally clearing at KMKT and KEAU. Diurnal Cu have developed with VFR cigs generally expected through the end of the period. There is a non zero chance for a few scattered showers to develop across western Minnesota late tonight, but confidence is too low to include that at this time. We may see some patchy fog develop thanks to the light/calm winds overnight and have added that to KMKT and our Wisconsin sites. KEAU would have the greatest chance of seeing IFR conditions develop. High clouds move in tomorrowmorning with winds slowly picking up out of the southeast by the afternoon. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. MON...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Borghoff AVIATION...Dye  467 FXUS61 KBOX 091756 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 156 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No changes to the forecast for this update cycle. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm with high humidity today and Friday. - Humid with a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. - Dry and seasonably cool for the weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm with high humidity today and Friday. A warming trend begins in earnest today as 925mb temperatures rise to near 20C with the full July sun angle. Highs in the upper 80s to near 90 are likely across most of southern New England by the afternoon. Expecting a very humid day with dewpoints increasing to near or just above 70 (at times) this afternoon. A weak cold front brings a chance for widely scattered showers and an isolated storm or two. Weak forcing from a subtle shortwave should prevent a more widespread threat for strong or severe storms. Best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be across northwest Massachusetts. Any storms that do form will have the potential to produce frequent lightning and heavy rain as PWAT values climb above 1.7 inches. KEY MESSAGE 2... Humid with a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Warm and humid conditions continue Friday although it will likely be few degrees cooler with 925mb temps running about 3-4C cooler than Thursday. Still, dew point temperatures near 70 will keep apparent temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Attention turns to a cold cold front sagging southward from northern New England during the early afternoon in northern MA and reaching the southern CT-RI-MA coastline by early evening. The associated forcing will be greater than Thursday so there will be a greater chance for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity on Friday. Latest guidance still shows significant differences in the magnitude of instability and thus the eventual convective evolution Friday afternoon. The 00z NAM's CAPE values, while somewhat lower than previous, are still around 1500-2500 J/kg due to its high-dewpoint bias. Meanwhile, the GFS's overmixing bias shows considerably lower values at around 500 J/kg or less. The answer is probably somewhere in the middle with the NBM which has 800-1300 J/kg by Friday afternoon. In any case, the primary risks with any thunderstorm looks to be lightning and slow-moving heavy downpours, which could lead to instances of street flooding in areas that see repeated thunderstorms. Latest guidance indicates 700-500 mb heights which become increasingly parallel to the southward- sagging frontal boundary, which adds to the risk for slower- moving storms and also casts some uncertainty when we clear out, with the Canadian guidance suggesting post-frontal light rains lingering into part of Saturday along the South Coast. KEY MESSAGE 3...Dry and seasonably cool for the weekend into early next week. Trending much drier behind Friday's cold front by Saturday with any lingering moisture pulling away from the region Saturday morning. The 500 mb pattern then transitions to one of cyclonic flow/troughing in the mean, which favors cooler temperatures (low to mid 80s) and lower humidity levels than experienced for late in the week. Weekend appears favorable for outdoor plans with nice summer weather. We'll be on the far western periphery of a pretty impressive upper level ridge which latest guidance still shows reaching to nearly 600 dm building over the northern/central Plains and upper Midwest. We still might need to keep an eye on possible storminess pivoting around the ridge but it looks as though the weekend into early next week ends up drier than not. && .AVIATION /18ZTHURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Friday...Moderate Confidence. A cumulus field continues to grow across the higher terrain this afternoon. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible, mainly west of KBED/KPVD through this evening. VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Ceilings are expected to lower with areas of MVFR advancing northward across CT/RI/southern MA. Confidence is low to moderate if lower ceilings will reach KBED and KBOS after 9z Friday. Low ceilings/vsbys are expected to persist across the southern coast through Friday morning. Flight conditions are expected to improve to VFR by afternoon. Elsewhere, VFR expected Friday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, with a higher risk by the southern coast. KBOS Terminal...Moderate to high confidence. KBDL Terminal...Moderate to high confidence. Outlook /Friday Night through Tuesday/... Friday Night: Mainly VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday through Tuesday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Friday Morning...High confidence. Mostly tranquil conditions today as high pressure builds over the region. A weak front approaches the region later this afternoon into the evening with showers and thunderstorms possible over the southern waters. Another tranquil start to the day Friday with showers and thunderstorms developing by the afternoon. Outlook /Friday Night through Tuesday/... Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...FT AVIATION...Guest MARINE...FT  503 FXUS66 KOTX 091757 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1057 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated fire weather conditions through the weekend. - Breezy winds through the Cascade gaps Thursday and Friday each afternoon and evening. - Breezy winds become more widespread Saturday afternoon with the strongest winds down the Okanogan Valley. - Warming trend early next week. && .SYNOPSIS... Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through the weekend due to low humidity and breezy winds. A broad ridge building over the west-central U.S. early next week will bring warming temperatures across the Inland Northwest. && .DISCUSSION... Thursday through Saturday: The region remains under zonal flow aloft through early Friday. Onshore flow into western WA will tighten the pressure gradient across the Cascades each afternoon and evening as cool marine air banks up against the mountains, resulting in recurring breezy westerly winds through the Cascade gaps. Relative humidity values will drop into the teens daily. Friday afternoon into Saturday, a low pressure system off the British Columbia coast shifts northeastward, placing the Inland Northwest under southwesterly flow and putting the region directly under the jet stream. This will generate more widespread breezy southwest winds. Saturday afternoon and evening, the Okanogan Valley looks like the primary area of concern with sustained winds around 20 mph and gusts of 35-40 mph coinciding with RH values in the low to mid teens. Thus, this area will have to be monitored for critical fire weather conditions. Sunday through Wednesday: A building ridge over the west-central U.S. broadens early next week, bringing a warming trend to the Inland Northwest. While confidence is growing that areas further east under the ridge axis will experience extreme heat under the ridge, temperatures across the Inland Northwest will see a more subtle increase Monday and Tuesday. Uncertainty increases by mid- week regarding the timing of the next Pacific low. A slower arrival would allow the ridge over the west-central U.S. to build further into our region, resulting in hotter temperatures, while a faster arrival would bring temperatures back down. The Climate Prediction Center is banking on a slower arrival, giving Eastern WA and North ID a 60-70 percent chance of seeing above normal temperatures in the 8-14 day outlook. The NBM isn't ready to fully commit to the hotter solution. The NBM maintains a large spread between 25th and 75th percentile temperatures. Spokane, for example, shows 25th percentile highs in the low 80s next Wednesday and Thursday, while the 75th percentile shows highs in the mid 90s. /Fewkes && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs: Widespread VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Breezy winds will persist through the Cascade gaps. Elsewhere, winds have subsided and will generally be 10 kts or less through the period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions regionwide. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 87 57 89 57 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 85 57 88 58 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 83 51 85 53 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 92 60 94 61 93 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 87 55 88 55 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint84 58 87 58 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 82 55 87 57 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 91 57 91 56 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 90 63 89 61 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 92 58 91 57 88 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$