901 FXUS62 KFFC 091804 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 204 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered afternoon showers and storms are expected today and Friday, becoming numerous to widespread over the weekend. - A few storms through this weekend may become strong with wind gusts up to 40-50mph and locally heavy rain. - Heat index values peak between 95-105 through Saturday. Heat Advisory for portions of East-Central GA from 12-8PM today. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 152 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Rinse and repeat as summertime continues with a few showers and thunderstorms possible and hot temps. As is normal for this time a year, a strong area of high pressure churns over the Atlantic and keeps the southeast in an open warm sector, increasing diurnally driven convection each afternoon. Not as much coverage is expected today, but a few showers and typical summer thunderstorms are possible. Best chances are in the NW portion of Georgia (45-65%), with PoPs quickly decreasing southward into central Georgia (20- 45%). As for Friday, similar story with any convection and showers, with the northwest portion of the state having the increased PoP chances. The main hazard from any storm should be damaging winds, especially in the northern part of the state. As for the heat, the temperatures remain hot in the short term. Low to upper 90s spanning from north to south with the hotter temps toward central Georgia. Since we remain in an open warm sector and an abundance of moisture still lingering, hot heat indices are still on track. Triple digits for today and Friday, with a smattering of 105-108 possible toward SE Georgia. For this, another Heat Advisory in effect through 8 PM. Since the forecast is almost the same for tomorrow, expect another Heat Advisory for Friday in the SE portion of the state. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday morning through next Wednesday) Issued at 152 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 It's gonna be a rainy weekend. Maybe not a total washout, but if you have outdoor plans you might want to reconsider. Saturday afternoon, chances of thunderstorms become likely across northern Georgia before spreading to all of the CWA by Sunday afternoon. A few storms could be strong to severe with the main threat being damaging winds, but the signal for widespread severe weather is not too concerning. The rain-cooled environment and NW flow will give us a break from the heat, with highs in the mid to upper 80s by Sunday which will linger through the start of the work week. By next Wednesday though, the heat will start to build again as a Bermuda high re- establishes and tropical moisture builds back in. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 133 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Popup SHRA/TSRA are developing across most of Georgia. Scattered to numerous TSRA are exp, w/ impacts to all TAF sites. Impacts for ATL starting around 19Z, could linger as late as around 00/01Z, though risk decr aft 23Z. Winds W 8-12 kts, gusts to 15-20 kts, diminishing after sunset. Gusts to 30 kts psbl in/vc of TS. Similar conds exp tomorrow, with TS risk for ATL starting around 17/18Z. Cigs/winds will be nearly the same as today. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High for all elements CRS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 74 94 74 92 / 20 30 20 60 Atlanta 75 93 75 90 / 10 40 20 70 Blairsville 66 84 66 82 / 20 50 50 80 Cartersville 73 92 73 89 / 10 30 40 80 Columbus 75 94 75 93 / 20 20 10 30 Gainesville 73 92 73 89 / 10 30 20 60 Macon 75 95 75 94 / 20 20 10 30 Rome 72 91 72 88 / 10 40 40 80Peachtree City 73 92 73 90 / 10 30 20 60 Vidalia 78 99 77 98 / 10 10 10 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ085-086-097-098- 106-108>113. && $$ SHORT TERM...Patterson LONG TERM....Vaughn AVIATION...CRS  900 FXUS64 KSJT 091805 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 105 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot and dry conditions return for today and Friday with afternoon highs in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. - Low to medium (20-50%) chances for showers and thunderstorms return for this weekend through early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 105 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Skies were sunny to partly cloudy with warm and dry conditions across west central Texas this afternoon. Temperatures were in the low to mid 90s while winds were from the south at 10 to 15 MPH. At the upper-levels, an elongated ridge was set up from southern California and across Texas. This will continue to be the predominant feature for the rest of today before it starts to break down tonight and tomorrow. A surface low pressure area was moving through the central Plains and resulting in stronger southerly winds this afternoon. Winds should diminish tonight with mild temperatures in the mid 70s. On Friday we'll see one more day of warm and dry conditions with high temperatures in the mid 90s to around 100. Southerly winds of 10 to 15 MPH are expected again as a frontal boundary approaches the southern Plains. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 105 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 This weekend, models are in good agreement that the ridge will shift northward and become centered over the northern Plains. A broad area of mid-level vorticity will rotate around the base of this ridge into central Texas by Monday. Conditions on Saturday will be mostly warm and dry, but chances for a few thunderstorms will increase for the Hill Country by the evening due to the departure of the ridge. By Sunday, the low-levels winds should become more southeasterly and advect more gulf moisture into west central Texas. A surface cold front will also drop into Texas by late Sunday. As a result, this should lead to a more unsettled pattern across the region with higher chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially Sunday night through Tuesday. At this time, rainfall amounts do not look significant. However, any area could see multiple rounds of individual storms for the first half of next week which could result in localized heavy rainfall. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1146 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Satellite images and surface observations indicate clear skies across the CWA early this afternoon. Expect VFR conditions to prevail across west central Texas the rest of the afternoon into this evening as the 500mb subtropical ridge across the southwest United States and northern Mexico will continue to provide subsidence across northwest Texas the rest of today into tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 75 97 75 96 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 74 97 74 95 / 0 0 0 20 Junction 72 94 73 93 / 0 0 20 30 Brownwood 74 97 75 95 / 0 0 0 10 Sweetwater 75 99 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 71 93 73 92 / 0 0 0 20 Brady 72 93 72 92 / 0 0 0 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM....SK AVIATION...61  890 FXUS65 KGJT 091805 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1205 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers will shift northward tomorrow with areas north of highway 50 favored. - Localized critical fire weather conditions favor southeast UT and southwest CO tomorrow afternoon. - Excessive heat watch has been issued for Saturday and Sunday afternoon for near record temperatures in the lower valleys of eastern Utah and western Colorado. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1056 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 High pressure building over the Desert Southwest will move/build to the northeast over eastern Utah and Western Colorado by Sunday and expand east over the Plains going into next week. An upper level shortwave with a weak jet streak supporting it is moving across the region tonight is keeping isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms going mostly to the north of I-70, but there are a few moving through the central areas. These storms aren't producing much in the way of precip, but can kick out some gusts of 40-50 mph. Look for these storms to diminish through the overnight into the morning, but will redevelop around noon with diurnal heating. There will be few storms tomorrow than we had today and they will stay mostly to the north and will be ending by early evening due to subsidence under the high pressure pushing up from the southwest. With the high pressure moving into the region, near normal temperatures across the region tomorrow will warm to about five degrees above normal Friday, ten degrees above normal Saturday, and near record 15 degrees above normal Sunday. With high pressure over the region, the hot dry conditions will continue, but winds will be light to non existent bringing an end to the critical fire weather conditions. The high pressure does seem to pull moisture around it up into the Great Basin with models indicating a little moisture may be able to slip into the region under the high. This would generate afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but it too early to say how much moisture will make it into the region. Stay tuned for updates. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1157 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Orographic westerly flow will produce terrain based showers and thunderstorms across most mountain groups this afternoon. A few of these will drift over valleys and contribute gusty outflow winds to airfields. Gusts of 45-55 mph can be expected adjacent to decaying showers. Rainfall will be minimal and thus breakpoint ceilings and/or visibility are not expected to impact terminals. Skies will clear back out this evening and lighter down valley drainage winds will resume after dark. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for COZ001-002-005>008-011-014-020>023. UT...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for UTZ022-024-027-029. && $$ DISCUSSION...DB AVIATION...TGJT  964 FXUS61 KRLX 091806 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 206 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 18Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms continue at times through the work week and the weekend, with localized flash flooding remaining possible. 2) Drier weather coming for the beginning of the next work week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the rest of the work week and the weekend as a very moist airmass remains in place, with a lingering frontal boundary and periodic crossing upper waves providing synoptic scale enhancement at times. These upper waves mean that showers and thunderstorms become more likely outside of the favored afternoon and evening hours going forward. Guidance continues to forecast PWATs in the 1.5 to 2.0" range into the weekend, resulting in the potential for localized flash flooding. The biggest threat for flash flooding is expected Friday and Saturday. A Flash Flood Watch may eventually be needed. KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold front will push southward Saturday into Sunday. The front will push south of the area for the beginning of the next work week, allowing for drier weather. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to cause brief MVFR or worse VSBY restrictions and brief MVFR CIGs this afternoon/evening, along with the potential for gusty winds. Mainly dry weather is then anticipated tonight, with the potential for very patchy fog (east/south) and some stratus that could produce MVFR/IFR in spots. Overall, confidence in restrictions tonight is on the lower side. Another round of showers and storms moves into the area Friday morning into the afternoon, with additional MVFR CIG restrictions expected, along with brief MVFR/IFR VSBY. Light west-southwest to southwest flow is expected throughout the TAF period. Brief gusty winds are possible with any thunderstorms. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms today could vary. Restrictions tonight with fog and/or stratus may be worse than currently progged. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR conditions associated with showers and thunderstorms remain possible through the weekend. IFR conditions are also possible with fog and/or stratus each night and early morning, especially across valley locations. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>034-039-040-515>526. OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ067-075-076-083>087. KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for VAZ003-004. &&$$ DISCUSSION...RPY/GW AVIATION...GW  004 FXUS65 KRIW 091806 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1206 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Less storm activity for this afternoon (10-15% coverage). These will build and push off the Winds by 2-3PM and move east across Fremont/Natrona Counties by 6-7PM with main threats of gusty outflow winds up to 40-50 mph. - Record high temperatures are likely this weekend and possibly early next week with some all time record high temperatures possible. The hottest day will be Sunday. - Very low humidity will bring elevated fire weather Friday into early next week. Critical fire weather is possible in northern Wyoming Sunday afternoon for the northern Bighorn Basin and Cody Foothills. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1203 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Thunderstorms have started to develop over the Winds as many of the HiRes models have suggested from this morning. These will continue to build and begin to push east across the Wind River Basin towards 2-3PM before pushing into eastern Fremont to Natrona Counties before exiting by 7PM this evening. The primary hazard continues to be gusty outflows, not quite as strong as yesterday, up to 40-50 mph as dewpoint depressions are a bit less. Otherwise, hot temperatures still on the way for Friday and over the weekend, with Sunday the hottest afternoon. A excessive heat watch has been issued for Saturday through Monday with widespread triple digits expected for many across the CWA. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 151 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 We still have a few light showers in central portions of Wyoming early this morning as we still have a bit of CAPE in the atmosphere. Nothing heavy, and barely any lightning, just a few showers. At this point, any amount of moisture is a good thing. And it looks like it will be another day of convection. There could be some this morning though, especially in portions of Johnson and Natrona County where guidance is showing some CAPE this morning, so we added around a 1 in 5 chance of a shower, it may end up just being virga though. Otherwise, the trend of decreasing coverage of convection continues as precipitable water values continue to drop. Again, the main chance will be East of the Divide with areas to the west largely dry with less than a 1 in 10 chance. For once, we don't have any kind of risk from the Storm Prediction Center. The main threat will be, as it always is this time of year, strong wind gusts. Models soundings continue to show inverted V signatures and with some dew point depressions approaching 50 degrees, wind gusts of 50 mph will be possible with any shower or thunderstorm. This looks like an earlier show with most showers ending after sunset and all over by midnight. Temperatures should be similar to yesterday, quite warm but fairly normal for July. Tomorrow is where we begin to transition from thunderstorms to heat. Drier air will continue to push eastward across the area, dropping precipitable water levels even more. There may be just enough moisture and instability to squeeze out very isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, this would be mainly in Johnson County where a bit more moisture will linger and possibly the mountains with a bit of high elevation heat source. Coverage will be very sparse though, with a capital V and a capital S, less than 5 percent of the area. Temperatures will also begin to rise, approaching 100 in the warm spots like the Bighorn Basin and widespread 90s East of the Divide in the lower elevations. This is hot, but nothing unusually for the middle of July, climatologically the warmest time of the year. Things really change on Saturday. Strong ridging over the desert southwest will begin to build northward, with 500 millibar heights reaching 5970 metersby days end. At the same time, 700 millibar temperatures will rise to as high as 21 celsius. This means a very hot day. Reasoning for today remains the same, most locations below 5200 feet East of the Divide have at least a 1 in 2 chance of high temperatures over 100 degrees, with the warmest spots like from Thermopolis to Greybull in the Bighorn Basin have an almost 100 percent chance. Some record high temperatures are certainly possible on this day. And, with the warm temperatures aloft and much drier air moving in, the chance of convection will be basically zero. But this is only the appetizer, with the main course likely to be on Sunday. This is when the ridge will be centered over Wyoming, with some models giving 500 millibar heights as high as 6000 meters. The 700 millibar temperatures may climb as high as 24 degrees celsius. All this adds up to a very hot day, possibly one we haven't seen in a long time. The NBA ensemble gives a greater than 1 in 2 chance of 100 degrees in all locations below 6000 feet, with an almost 100 percent chance below 5500 feet. And this includes some places that don;t see 100. Rock Springs has around a 3 in 5 chance of over 100, and even Jackson has a 1 in 3 chance. The lower elevations of the Bighorn Basin have at least a 4 out of 5 chance of high temperatures over 105 degrees on this day. And the warmest spots, like Greybull and Basin, have a 1 in 2 chance of reaching 110. This is the most likely day to see all time record highs broken, especially in locations that have a shorter period of record. As for heat highlights, I had mixed thoughts on this. The main reason is the humidity, or more specifically the lack of it. The lower elevations will have widespread single digit relative humidity, with some locations falling as a 3 percent on Sunday. This has an impact on the apparent temperatures, which is what we base heat highlights on. For one, the apparent temperature will be below the actual temperature by 5 or 10 degrees. Also, with the dry air, almost all locations should cool off at least into the 60s at night. The one place I could see an excessive heat watch is the Bighorn Basin, but this would mainly be for Sunday. Heat advisories look more likely at this time, there is still time so we will punt to day shift to take another look. And there is one more concern for Sunday. The NBM ensemble is giving a greater than 1 in 2 chance of wind gusts over 30 mph Sunday afternoon north of a Meeteetse to Worland to Kaycee line. With the extremely dry conditions, we may have to consider Fire Weather Highlights for Sunday afternoon. There should be some slight, and emphasis on slight. cooling on Monday, be probably only by 3 to 5 degrees. One hundred degree high temperatures will still be very widespread across the lower elevations. One this day, there may be just enough moisture to come around the backside of the ridge for isolated storms in the western mountains, but the chance is only around 1 out of 10. Chances of convection then slowly increase each day, starting mainly in western Wyoming on Tuesday and then spreading eastward as the ridge slowly moves eastward and moisture rotates in around the backside of it. Temperatures will cool at first in the west, but likely remain well above normal through the forecast period. Very hot temperatures continue Tuesday before some cooling moves in for midweek East of the Divide. But even with some cooling, temperatures should remain well above normal through most of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1127 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 All terminals to be VFR through midday Friday. Residual mid-level moisture remains over portions of the region today as a shortwave moves across central Wyoming late Thursday morning. The best chance for Thursday afternoon convection appears to be greatest across the Absaroka and Wind River Ranges and locations downstream. PROB30 groups are included at KRIW, KLND, and KWRL, along with KCPR where better surface moisture aids convective development. Most areas will notice a downturn in coverage by 01Z/Friday. Gusty outflow wind 35-45kts will be the main hazard. Westerly wind 10-18kts occurs from early afternoon until just before sunset at terminals west of the Continental Divide. Drier air arrives from the west tonight leaving a mostly clear sky by Friday morning. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday evening for WYZ003>006-010-011-013-016>020-023-025>030. && $$ UPDATE...Lowe DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...CNJ  369 FXUS63 KJKL 091811 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 211 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms at times into the weekend. - Heavy rainfall is possible through the first half of this weekend, especially Friday and Saturday, with a threat of isolated to scattered flash flooding. - A Flood Watch is in effect for increased flash flood potential across the area from this afternoon through early Sunday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1215 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026 Refreshed the T/Td/sky grids with the latest observational data from around the region. Also regenerated SAFs to remove fog wording from this morning, otherwise, forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 715 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026 No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids and a tweaking of the PoPs through noon. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 445 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026 08Z sfc analysis shows a weak boundary laid out just northwest of the JKl CWA and this is prompting the continued threat of showers and thunderstorms through this convective minimum into dawn. In fact, showers and thunderstorms are blossoming just northwest of our area of responsibility with additional lighter and scattered activity found over far eastern Kentucky. It is this activity, and the clouds associated with it, that is likely keeping the dense fog from becoming too widespread or extensive and generally more fleeting than that the past several nights. What is the same, though, is the high moisture content in the boundary layer with both temperatures and dewpoints nearly the same at each observation point - in the upper 60s and lower 70s - amid light and variable winds. The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are only in broad agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast as they all handle a key Central Plains shortwave slightly differently as it works east toward the Bluegrass State through the start of the weekend. The upper pattern starts with one mid level impulse moving through eastern Kentucky this morning along with some minor 5h height falls. This feature exits to the east this evening while fairly fast northwesterly mid-level flow remains in place into Friday. The next substantive wave up in this pattern is that ill modeled one over the Central Plains that ECMWF barely indicates while the GFS and NAM (slowest) are more distinctive with it. The weakness of this feature in the ECMWF allows more of its energy to work into Kentucky early on Friday while the other models keep it more contained and arriving later in the day. Either way, this pattern locally will support unsettled conditions through this part of the state well into the weekend. Despite the questionable agreement among the the finer fatuity's in the models through 00Z Saturday, the NBM was still used as the starting point for the grids as little difference in sensible weather can be expected from these model discrepancies. Did make some minor adjustment to PoPs by adding in the consensus guidance for convective timing and coverage from the latest CAM run's consensus. These results were again smoothed and fitted to a diurnal curve - though with more influence from mid and upper level dynamics - probably extending the convection deeper into the night. Sensible weather features typical wet summertime conditions stuck on repeat as conditions will be near normal for afternoon temperatures and humid with scattered to numerous afternoon/ evening convection expected. The influence of waves at mid-level working into or near the JKL CWA - particularly this afternoon and beyond - will enhance the heavy rain threat and small potential for severe storms - mainly south and west of the area. Slow storm motions and high PWS (at times over 2 inches) in place means a heightened concern for localized flooding - especially for places that see training cells - cumulative into the weekend with isolated to scattered high water issues anticipated. For this reason a Flood Watch for flash flooding is in effect from this afternoon through Sunday morning. Temperatures will be moderated by the high moisture content suppressing highs in the afternoon and making for mild lows at night. The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to include more high resolution CAMs details (smoothed) into the PoPs and thunder potential grids through Friday evening. High moisture content to the air meant there were little opportunity to improve temps and dewpoints from the NBM through the weekend. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 500 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026 The main change to the grids for the first part of the extended forecast this morning was primarily to adjust spot specific Max and Min temps at several points though the area. Faster flow at mid levels and general troughing over the Ohio Valley will continue into the weekend and likely support an enhanced threat for heavy rain and localized flooding - particularly Friday and Saturday - becoming more of a risk with time. The previous long term discussion follows: At the onset of the extended, two shortwaves will be in close proximity of one another, the first over southern Indiana and Western Kentucky, the other being just west over the South Dakota/Nebraska area. In addition to these two features, split flow remains over Western CONUS, with a trough off the coast of British Columbia, and a ridge of high pressure over Southern California. Through Saturday, the two shortwaves phase into a more defined positively tilted trough across the Ohio Valley, while high pressure builds across the Plains. For sensible weather across Eastern Kentucky, showers and thunderstorm will be possible Friday through Monday, with a cold front moving through the area during the day Sunday. While shower and storms chances remain Monday, they will be more isolated to scattered compared to the numerous showers and thunderstorms that are expected Friday and Saturday. ECMWF Mean PWATs, continue to show model output falling around the 90th percentile of climatological normals from Friday through the Saturday with PWATs ranging from 1.90-2.10 inches. Showers and storms will have the potential for torrential rainfall. If an area sees repeated rounds of these storms, isolated instances of flash flooding could occur each of the days listed above. The WPC continues to have the area in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall both Friday and Saturday, and a Marginal Risk on Sunday. By Monday, A strong 600-dm high is modeled over the Upper Midwest and Central Plains, with the eastern portions of it infringing on the area. Showers and storms will still be possible, with existing scattered chances looking greatest across southern potions of the CWA. A departing area of low pressure is expected to be along the KY/TN border leading to theses lingering chances. The long forgotten trough off the British Columbia coast back on Friday will have navigated around the amplified ridge of high pressure into the upper Great Lakes area by Tuesday morning. This will flatten the high some, allowing for higher heights over Eastern Kentucky. While this usually equates to much warmer temperatures, model 850-mb temperatures remain suppressed. Temperatures through the extended generally remain in the low to mid 80s through Monday, becoming mid to upper 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. In the evenings temperatures generally cool into the upper 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026 Scattered pop-up showers and thunderstorms have started this afternoon and rounds of these showers and storms are expected through this afternoon and evening. There may be a breif lull for a few hours between 00Z and 06Z before more rounds work into the area from the west. Showers and storms will increase in coverage through Friday morning. With the scattered nature of these showers and storms and a degree of uncertainty, PROB30 groups were used through the TAF period. MVFR conditions will be likely with occasional IFR conditions in and around storms. Outside of any storm, winds will be fairly light and occasionally variable or out of the southwest. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...GINNICK SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...GINNICK/GREIF AVIATION...GINNICK  470 FXAK67 PAJK 091812 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 1012 AM AKDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .UPDATE...To the aviation section for the 18Z TAF issuance... && .AVIATION...Over the next 24 hours, weather conditions across the Panhandle will reverse compared to recent patterns. A frontal band is moving northward as the Gulf low tracks east, and it is expected to exit the region by this afternoon. The southern Panhandle will see improving conditions as showers taper off over the next few hours. South of PAPG, CIGs are currently AoB 2500 ft, but cloud breaks are helping conditions trend toward VFR. Despite some lingering low clouds visible on FAA webcams, clearing skies should reduce VSBY restrictions near runways. Meanwhile, the northern Panhandle is currently experiencing VFR conditions, as a dry slot aloft dissipates low clouds. However, rain showers will return to parts of the northern Panhandle this evening as a weak disturbance arrives from Canada, likely lowering conditions to MVFR overnight into the early morning, particularly from PAGY down to PASI. While winds are becoming more benign, we still expect gusty conditions near 20 kts near PAKT and PAGY this afternoon due to the combined effects of SE'rly flow and daytime heating. && .PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT ...455 AM AKDT Thu Jul 9 2026 SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - Most of any minor impacts due to lower ceilings and visibility for aviation will be in the southern Panhandle today near a weakening front moving up from the south. - We continue with Small Craft Advisories offshore of Prince of Wales Island due to 8 ft seas in somewhat stronger southerly winds. - Rain continues across the central and southern panhandle, diminishing later Thursday into Friday. A disturbance coming down from Canada brings more precipitation to the northern panhandle and inner channels Thursday PM into Friday. SHORT TERM.../through Saturday morning/...A frontal wave is still sliding northward across the southern and central panhandle Thursday morning, and is expected to stall out after bringing rain as far north as Sitka and Angoon. While overall this feature is not well organized, embedded convection has lead to rain rates as high as 0.25 inches per hour in the Ketchikan area this morning. These rates are expected to gradually diminish through the morning hours, with showers coming to an end by late Thursday night across the southern panhandle as the frontal wave weakens and associated surface low pressure slides eastward. The northern gulf coast and inner channels around Icy Strait managed to find themselves in a dry slot, with cloud cover diminishing through Thursday morning. This will once again allow for some patchy fog development before daytime heating kicks in. This also means the inner channels north of Angoon can expect slightly warmer daytime highs than Wednesday. The far northern gulf and inner channels will remain fairly dry for a good portion of Thursday with satellite imagery clearly denoting dry air aloft. This will be short lived though as a disturbance moves down from Canada Thursday afternoon and evening bringing rain to end the work week. With clearing across Icy Strait, daytime heating could provide a favorable environment for the developing wave moving down from the interior and allow it to sustain itself better as it advances. For the Klondike Highway and Skagway, there is a slight chance Friday afternoon for a thunderstorm to make it across the border as showers develop once more. Elsewhere further convective showers also are expected to develop and last into Friday night, diminishing into Saturday as upper level support wanes and relative high pressure builds over the region. For more on what to expect this weekend into early next week, see the long term discussion below. LONG TERM.../Saturday through Wednesday/...As the low pressure system from Friday moves southeastward, the chance for a disturbance from British Colombia to bring showers and perhaps some rumbles of thunder will continue for Saturday. A ridge should build in behind the high pressure system, and that should decrease chances for precipitation. By Sunday night into Monday, a low pressure system looks to form in the Gulf of Alaska. Right now, models are still disagreeing on the exact timing and strength of the low, stronger winds (up to 20 kts or 23 mph) in the Gulf and some higher rain chances are expected for Southeast Alaska with the low. As of now, the low pressure system looks to not be very organized, but it is something to monitor. Heading into next week, there will be greater confidence of the timing and impacts of the low, but we look to overall enter a wet pattern. MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): On the morning charts we note a weak low pressure area over the central Gulf of Alaska roughly near 53.6N and 144.6W...with an occluding front extending east into Prince of Wales and the southern Panhandle. The main headlines we have out this morning are for Small Craft Advisories (for 8 ft sees in a southerly swell south of the front) for the 15nm-80nm offshore zone off Prince of Wales Island (through tonight). In the Dixon Entrance to Edgecumbe offshore zones from Prince of Wales to southern Baranof we expect southerly winds 15 to 20 kts south of the front today before weakening a bit tonight into Friday. We dropped the Small Craft Advisories north as we do not expected to see more than 7 ft seas in those areas as the low moves southeast through Friday and continues to weaken. Inside (Inner Channels): We are getting a bit of an increase today in southern Clarence Strait with SE winds 15 to 20 kts generally and 5 ft seas along the Dixon Entrance periphery. We expect winds to relax a bit Friday as the low moves southeast. To the north, we will see a bit of a northwesterly wind increase this morning around Point Couverden and Rocky Island, and a bit of a southerly increase by afternoon across central to northern Lynn Canal. Otherwise, a generally lighter wind regime is expected going into the weekend as the weak low over the eastern Gulf moves southeast and weakens near Haida Gwaii. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661. && $$ SHORT TERM...STJ LONG TERM...Musall AVIATION...BAS MARINE...Garmon Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  485 FXUS63 KLMK 091812 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 212 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * There is a level 2 of 5 (slight) risk for severe thunderstorms west of roughly I-65, with a level 1 of 5 (marginal) risk elsewhere. The primary hazard would be damaging wind gusts between 8pm and 1am tonight. * Thunderstorms tonight will also bring a level 2 of 4 (slight) risk for excessive rainfall, with pockets of over 4 inches potentially resulting in flash flooding. Additional waves of storms will prolong the flooding risk through at least Saturday. * Decreasing chances for afternoon showers and storms and seasonable temperatures are expected Sunday through the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 212 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 At 2pm EDT, central KY and southern IN was situated between two disturbances: a shortwave mid-level trough over the Appalachians and a more potent disturbance along the MS River - the latter will bring storms into our area mid-late this evening. SPC's mesoanalysis reveals anywhere from 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest values to the west) across the area, which, despite only 15-25 kt effective shear, may support a couple strong to marginally severe thunderstorms. The CAMs generally advertise a multicell/linear storm mode which would suggest wind is the primary hazard, though there is a nonzero tornado risk across the west where there could be a couple hours' overlap between waning diurnally-driven instability and 20-25 kt 0- 3km line normal shear during the 8pm-1am EDT timeframe tonight. The evening storms should weaken as they move east across the area with the loss of instability, especially if the outflow surges out ahead of them as several CAMs suggest. This outflow should serve as a focus for additional thunderstorms overnight, though the primary concern with those will be heavy rainfall rather than wind, hail, or tornadoes. Recent model trends have been further south with the evening wave of storms and associated outflow - possibly far enough south to confine the best flash flooding risk across Tennessee where the NAM/RAP depict a 30-40 kt LLJ beginning around 4am EDT Friday. Nonetheless, there are still a few models that keep that moisture transport axis - and hence maximum rainfall totals - further north with the HREF ensemble max giving localized pockets of 5+ inches (sufficient for substantial flash flooding) as far north as the IN/KY state line. Needless to say, the WPC level 2 of 4 (slight) risk for excessive rainfall across our area seems reasonable. As the shortwave trough responsible for all of the showers and storms tonight into tomorrow morning shifts off towards the east, we should see a break in convective activity, though a couple isolated storms remain possible (20-30% chance) during the afternoon. By evening, however, additional waves of storms are slated to fire upstream and propagate east-southeastward along the boundary left in the wake of morning storms. Given the environment - characterized by PWATs of 1.9-2.0 inches, a deep (>12 kft) warm cloud layer, and weak (10-20 kt) deep layer shear - storms will be efficient rainfall producers and rather slow moving, which suggests heavy rainfall is again a concern, particularly Friday night into Saturday. By Saturday morning, HREF/REFS ensemble max 24-hour rainfall depicts pockets of 4+ inches once again; any areas that received heavy rainfall Thursday night-Friday will be particularly vulnerable for additional flash flooding if they receive training storms again with this second wave Friday night into Saturday. Still, there remains potential for the heaviest rainfall amounts to once again occur south of the local area if the effective boundary pushes south as some of the CAMs suggest. At this time, the National Blend of Models (NBM) advertises a 40-70% chance (highest across southern KY) for rainfall totals over 2 inches by 12z/8am EDT Saturday across the local area. Once again, additional heavy thunderstorms are forecast Saturday afternoon and evening as another shortwave trough and attendant surface low drifts towards the area from the northwest. The Low Resolution Ensemble Forecast (LREF) system mean brings 25-30 kt 0- 6km shear with this system, which combined with 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE would favor a severe weather risk during the afternoon, mainly from locally damaging winds in water-laden downbursts. Given the deep moisture in place (PWATs 1.9-2.1 inches), we'll still have to watch for locally heavy rainfall in these storms which could once again trigger flooding, especially if it falls on areas that already received heavy rainfall between tonight and Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 212 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 As we head into the second half of the weekend, upper-level ridging will continue to build across the western and central CONUS as an upper level low becomes cutoff over the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, a quasi-stationary boundary is expected to lay out over the Tennessee Valley, though the exact positioning of this boundary will likely be modified by convective episodes Friday and Saturday. To the north of the Ohio Valley, high pressure will try to sink south, along with drier air. There should be a fairly strong north-south gradient in moisture/PW values on Sunday, though the rich (1.75+" PW) moisture which will be over our area the next few days should settle to our south by Sunday. There should still be enough moisture and instability in the area for scattered storms to develop Sunday afternoon, with the greatest coverage expected in southern KY. Weakening flow aloft should limit the severe weather potential, with more of a pulse/typical summer time storm setup expected. The slower storm motions will support a continued threat for flash flooding, though it may be more isolated depending on storm coverage. For the first half of next week, 600+ dm upper ridging will spread into the northern Plains, controlling much of the weather across the CONUS. The pattern over our region will be a bit more complex. An increasing proportion of the medium-range ensembles keeps an upper- level low meandering across the TN Valley through much of the early week, and while moisture won't be particularly rich (PW 1.25-1.5"), there could be enough combined forcing and moisture for isolated to scattered afternoon and evening convection Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to be fairly seasonable through the middle of next week, with highs ranging from the mid 80s to around 90 Sunday through Wednesday. With less moisture content in the air, nighttime temperatures should be able to cool into the upper 60s and low 70s each night. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 135 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 As a low pressure system approaches, scattered thunderstorms (50-70% coverage) will overspread the area tonight, bringing periods of reduced visibilities. Ceilings are also likely (60-80% chance) to drop into the MVFR category by around 12z/8am EDT Friday. Convection should be tapering off by around that time, though a few lingering storms are possible (20-30% chance) through the end of the flight period. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for KYZ023>043-045>049- 053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082. IN...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for INZ076>079-083-084- 089>092. && $$ SHORT TERM...JRB LONG TERM...CSG AVIATION...JRB  585 FXUS63 KARX 091813 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 113 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon with lightning and locally heavy rain being the primary hazards. - Fog is forecast to develop on Friday morning causing lower visibility and potentially hazardous driving conditions. - Warmer and drier conditions are forecast next week with heat index values in the lower to mid 90s which may result in some heat related issues for those that are outdoors. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 103 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Rest of Today: Low Chance for Isolated Storms Through Early This Evening West to northwest flow is forecast to prevail over the upper Midwest the rest of the day. This flow will begin to usher in somewhat drier air in the mid levels which should clear out some of the cloud cover that is being observed early this afternoon. Even with the drier air moving in, just enough H700 theta-e may remain in place across portions of the CWA for a few isolated storms to form this afternoon. Even though synoptic forcing is very weak, afternoon highs approaching convective temperatures along with forecast CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg may be enough to generate a few storms. Given weak shear values, any storms that are able to form will likely struggle to maintain any cores, so the severe storm threat for today is very, very low. The lack of storm motion combined with long CAPE profiles suggests that these storms may be efficient rain producers. The storm threat should start decreasing this evening as daytime heating ends across the region. Friday into Next Week: Fog Friday Morning, Drier and Warmer Conditions This Weekend into Next Week The aforementioned dry mid level air will lead to mostly clear skies tonight into Friday morning. The combination of the light wind, clear skies, and high surface moisture will likely lead to at least patchy fog across much of the area to start the day on Friday. The latest 09/12z HREF shows a wide swath of at least 30-40 percent chance for visibility of 1 mile or less early tomorrow morning with pockets of 60-70 percent chances for 1 mile or less visibility east of the Mississippi River. In addition, river valley fog cannot be ruled out as well, which may lead to dense fog for some locations. For those out traveling tomorrow morning, be prepared for changing visibility. Upper level ridging will almost certainly set up across the central CONUS beginning on Friday and lasting well into the next work week. Thankfully for MN, IA, and WI, the center axis of the ridging pattern is forecast to remain to the west over the Northern Plains into south central Canada. With the axis to the west, the hottest conditions should also stay west of the FA during this time frame. Even with that being said, high temperatures are expected to be above average for mid July from late this weekend into the middle of next week. Afternoon heat index values could be in the low to mid 90s during the first half of next work week which may lead to some heat related issues for those that are outdoors for extended periods of time. The upper level high sitting over the region should suppress most chances for rainfall during this same time frame. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Some intermittent low clouds are remaining over the terminals early this afternoon, but those should begin to lift and clear out over the next few hours. Outside of that potential, VFR conditions are forecast through this evening at the TAF sites. The potential for fog is increasing for tonight with visibility dropping down to MVFR to IFR conditions. Cannot rule out that KLSE sees lower visibility than is currently forecast due to valley fog, but confidence is not high enough to go with lower visby at this time. Any fog that develops should quickly burn off shortly after sunrise with VFR conditions thereafter. Light wind under 10 kts is forecast with this 24 hour period. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Muscha AVIATION...Muscha  586 FXUS64 KJAN 091813 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 113 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous levels (limited to elevated) of heat will return Thursday and persist into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Thursday through next Wednesday: Thursday through Friday: Sub-tropical ridging will remain over the region, continuing dangerous heat concerns for Thursday and Friday. Afternoon rainfall/convection will be possible along/east of I-55 Thursday then diminishing by Friday. A pattern change beginning Friday will bring rain chances through the rest of the extended forecast. Saturday through Wednesday: A potent upper-lvl ridge will build and traverse over the Northern Plains, resulting in downstream troughing over the Mid-MS Valley. The trough will slowly push a frontal boundary towards the southeast through the weekend and into next week. As the boundary progress towards the area, rain chances (70-85%) will be greatest on Sunday and Monday. Rain will stick around through mid-week as the boundary gradually moves over the area. With the ongoing rain potential, heat relief is expected as heat indices drop below 105 degrees. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. VCTS will be possible this afternoon, mainly at eastern TAF sites briefly reducing categories. Patchy BR/low stratus will also be possible Friday morning at sites PIB/HBG from around 12Z-15Z.Winds will increase from the southwest between 5-10 knots by late this morning, and continue as such through the afternoon hours./KP/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 74 94 75 93 / 10 10 10 30 Meridian 74 94 75 93 / 10 10 10 30 Vicksburg 76 94 76 93 / 0 0 0 20 Hattiesburg 75 95 75 93 / 10 20 10 70 Natchez 74 95 75 95 / 0 0 0 30 Greenville 76 94 77 93 / 0 0 0 20 Greenwood 75 95 76 93 / 0 0 10 50 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025-034. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ SW/KP  663 FXUS64 KMAF 091815 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 115 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 115 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Low chance (10-20%) of isolated storms over higher terrain areas both this afternoon and Friday afternoon. - Warmer than average temperatures persist through Friday before cooler conditions set in through early next week. - Shower/storm chances increase Sunday through early next week, especially south of the I-20 Corridor. The potential for multiple rounds of rain will increase the risk of flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Upper ridging centered near the Desert Southwest and northwestern Mexico remains the dominant weather maker within the Short Term period. Hot and dry conditions continue for most across the region. Highs in the upper 90s to triple digits are expected Friday afternoon. The hottest conditions will be near/along the river valleys, where highs are progged to reach just shy of 105 degrees (up to 107 degrees in portions of the Big Bend). Tonight and Friday night, temperatures generally fall to the 70s. Although most stay dry, breezy south/southeast winds bring low (<20%) rain chances to the higher terrain and portions of New Mexico each afternoon of the period. The best odds of isolated showers/storms will be near the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains. Some models indicate a possibility for rainfall over parts of Eddy and Lea counties Friday evening. Conditions trend slightly cooler and wetter ahead. More details below! && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The current forecast remains on track, with warm and predominantly dry conditions early this weekend giving way to a more active and cooler period through the beginning of next week. The upper ridge currently centered to the west will continue to weaken its effects over the area Saturday as it shifts toward the Northern High Plains. This transition will allow upper-level disturbances to move over the forecast area, leading to increased chances for rain and thunderstorms by Sunday. A weak cold front will drop into the region early next week, serving as a focus for additional lift and thunderstorm development through Wednesday. Moist, easterly upslope flow will persist at the surface during this time. Due to increased moisture and the potential for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, there is a risk of flooding across portions of the region early nest week. Additionally, while cooler temperatures are expected, multiple rounds of thunderstorms may impact outdoor activities. Expect a cooling trend starting Sunday, with afternoon highs moderating into the mid-80s to low-90s Tuesday through Thursday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions accompanied by breezy south/southeast winds are ahead during the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 74 99 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 74 103 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 73 98 74 96 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 72 99 71 96 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 70 94 69 92 / 0 10 0 0 Hobbs 71 99 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 63 95 62 94 / 0 10 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 74 97 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 73 97 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 73 101 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...95 LONG TERM....27 AVIATION...95  660 FXUS64 KMEG 091815 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 115 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of eastern Arkansas and portions of northwest Mississippi for today and tomorrow. Heat index values are expected to reach between 105F and 109F. - A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms persists each day through Saturday, particularly for areas along and north of the I-40 corridor. Damaging wind gusts are the primary concern with a secondary threat of flooding. - High pressure will build over the Plains next week, keeping temperatures in the Mid-South near normal. An incoming easterly wave by mid-week is expected to increase the potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Current water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough moving northeast into the Ohio Valley, with weak disturbances embedded in the northwest flow affecting Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois. A large ridge of high pressure is building across the Intermountain West, while surface high pressure dominates much of the CONUS, with a quasi-stationary front stretching from the Northeast to the Great Lakes. Morning thunderstorms in NE Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel, supported by overnight MCS outflow, have left residual cirrus cloud cover across eastern Arkansas and SW Tennessee. This cloud cover will likely suppress afternoon convection while maintaining high heat and humidity. Based on NBM guidance and latest trends, a Heat Advisory has been issued for most of eastern Arkansas and parts of NW Mississippi, effective today and tomorrow. Heat indices will range from 105-109 F. Through Saturday, the Mid-South will experience a zonal to weak northwest flow pattern, increasing vulnerability to nighttime MCSs and daytime MCVs. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms is in effect through Saturday, focusing on areas along and north of the I-40 corridor, where sufficient instability and 15-30 knots of shear favor damaging wind gusts as the primary threat. Furthermore, a Flood Watch remains active through late Saturday evening, as repeated rounds of heavy rainfall pose a continued flood threat to the northern portion of the region. An exceptionally strong ridge of high pressure will develop over the Plains from Sunday through mid-week. LREF guidance indicates 500mb heights near 600 dam-climatological maximums for the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. The Mid-South will remain on the southern periphery of this ridge, resulting in near- normal temperatures. By mid-week, an easterly wave may move into the area, increasing the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Expect near-normal temperatures with persistent daily chances for isolated to scattered storm activity. AC3 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Complicated forecast as the chance of showers and thunderstorms will be the main concern. Isolated storms continue across the region at this time and will keep VCTS remarks in the forecast for the afternoon hours. Confidence in thunderstorms impacting any one terminal this afternoon is quite low. Attention turns a complex of storms that will move southeast across parts of the region this evening into the overnight hours. JBR and MKL stand the best chance of being impacted by the storms and have included a PROB30 to account for thunderstorm potential. Current thinking keeps this complex north of the MEM terminal. Outside of any thunderstorms, VFR conditions will prevail with southwesterly to southerly winds generally less than 12 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Fire weather conditions remain stable across the Mid-South for the remainder of the week. Relative humidity levels will stay above 40 percent, accompanied by light winds and daily opportunities for scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for ARZ009. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ026>028-035-036-048- 049-058. MO...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for MOZ113-115. MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for MSZ007-010-011-020. TN...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for TNZ001>004-019>022- 054-055. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...TAB  650 FXUS64 KOUN 091815 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 115 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 115 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Low storm & severe weather chances across portions of northern and central Oklahoma during the evening/night through Saturday. - Dangerous heat and humidity through sunset today; Generally improving/"less hot" conditions this weekend into next week. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 It's setting up to be another hot and humid one across Oklahoma and western-north Texas, with (low) chances for storms/severe weather as we roll into the evening and nighttime periods. Previous widely scattered rain showers continue to slowly dissipate as warm mid-level ascent wanes. While a modest south-southwesterly breeze and remnant (scattered) cloud cover may provide temporary heat "relief" today, 100-110 F heat indices remain forecast for much of the eastern two-thirds of Oklahoma. Despite increasing potential for us to fall short of criteria heat indices in portions of central Oklahoma, we will maintain the previous Heat Advisory configuration until 8 PM this evening. The presence of a weak boundary and hot/well-mixed conditions within a surface pressure trough may provide enough support for isolated thunderstorm development across northern Oklahoma this evening (after 4-5 PM). Any storm in this regime will be capable of strong-damaging downburst wind events. Remnant cloud cover and weak subsidence behind a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) across northern Oklahoma have decreased confidence in mid-evening storm development compared to previous forecasts. By the late evening (9-10 PM onward), evolving convection across western Kansas into the Texas Panhandle will become the main focus for storm potential across portions of far northern Oklahoma. It still appears that much of this activity will remain confined to far southern Kansas, though some risk for strong-damaging wind gusts, lightning and brief heavy rainfall may spread southward across the Oklahoma/Kansas border late tonight. Ungar && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The heat stress risk looks to temper some as we head into the weekend, with continued chances for morning then eveningtime scattered rain and storms. Warmed/Desert Southwest airmasses are forecast to become more confined to our west, along with generally reduced day-over-day evapotranspiration potential. This combination will in turn yield less hot and drier surface conditions, resulting in generally <105 F heat indices during the period. Despite this, still use caution if you plan to spend prolonged time outdoors during the daytime. Warm isentropic ascent will promote another morning of scattered light precipitation cores across western into northern Oklahoma on Friday, with a main hazard of sporadic cloud-to-ground lightning. We will again watch a lingering frontal boundary for scattered thunderstorm potential (with a wind/hail risk) along and north of Interstate 40 into the evening, though most locations will remain dry. While a coherent area of Southern High Plains convection will focus further south on Friday (i.e., Texas & Oklahoma Panhandles), it currently appears that most activity will decay prior to reaching western Oklahoma. A more evident risk of storms and severe weather arrives by Saturday late afternoon into evening, as a majority of guidance propagates a convectively-enhanced mid-level system (and stronger front) across the area. Damaging downburst wind gusts will remain the primary hazard, though a few instances of large hail may also occur with more organized/persistent thunderstorms during this time. Ungar && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Wednesday) Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Guidance is converging towards a rather rainy/stormy solution for the the southern two-thirds of Oklahoma and western-north Texas on Sunday. This would likely include some potential for strong- severe storms should sufficient instability build into the afternoon and evening. Interests with outdoor plans should continue to check back as details continue to come into focus. Ungar .Previous Discussion... Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Temperatures through the latter half of the weekend into early next week will be 5-10 degrees cooler than what we will see over the next few days. A mid-level ridge across the Desert Southwest will shift to the north, and move into the central and high Plains. Across our area, we will see mostly dry conditions and a warm up back into the mid to upper upper 90s for the latter half of the week. Bunker && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A few isolated storms are possible this afternoon (mainly north of I- 40), but confidence is too low for mention in TAFs. Storms will be possible again overnight across northern Oklahoma (prob30 at KWWR for this possibility). Any storms that develop today and tonight will be capable of lightning and gusty/erratic winds. Otherwise, VFR conditions with breezy south to southwest winds this afternoon, diminishing overnight and becoming gusty again tomorrow. Some marginal low level wind shear is possible toward morning, but confidence is too low for mention in TAF. Day && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 80 100 79 97 / 0 10 10 30 Hobart OK 78 100 77 99 / 0 0 0 20 Wichita Falls TX 79 100 78 99 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 74 99 73 98 / 30 20 40 10 Ponca City OK 77 95 76 93 / 20 20 40 30 Durant OK 80 98 80 96 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ006>008-011>013- 017>020-023>032-039>043-045>048-050>052. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...09 SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09/13 AVIATION...14  726 FXUS62 KRAH 091815 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 215 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 215 PM Thursday... 1) Less thunderstorm coverage this afternoon and Friday afternoon compared to Wednesday afternoon, while heat concerns persist across the southern Coastal Plain this afternoon. 2) Continued warm Sat, with increased chances for diurnally driven convection through the weekend. Best chances shift south through mid- week, with near to below normal temperatures Sun through Tue. && .DISCUSSION... As of 215 PM Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Less thunderstorm coverage this afternoon and Friday afternoon compared to Wednesday afternoon, while heat concerns persist across the southern Coastal Plain this afternoon. While one or two very light radar echoes have developed along the US- 1 corridor this afternoon, overall thunderstorm coverage is expected to be less than yesterday. The bulk of convective-allowing models show the most widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms well to the north across the DC metro area down to Richmond, as well as across the western half of North Carolina. Although diurnal cumulus has developed across the entire forecast area, the deepest clouds are along and to the west of US-1. Despite these early radar echoes along US-1, still believe that the greatest coverage for precipitation will remain contained to the Triad during the mid to late afternoon, with all convection coming to an end around sunset. Friday's pattern looks similar to today, although by the end of the afternoon, a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms should expand across the entire forecast area. Air temperatures are a couple degrees cooler than this time yesterday, although dewpoints remain in the upper 60s and lower 70s. However, neither the air temperature nor the dewpoints have come down much across the southern Coastal Plain, where heat index values around 105 degrees still remain possible through the afternoon. A Heat Advisory is in effect for Sampson and Hoke Counties until 8pm. KEY MESSAGE 2... Continued warm Sat, with increased chances for diurnally driven convection through the weekend. Best chances shift south through mid-week, with near to below normal temperatures Sun through Tue. Aloft, a s/w will help amplify the longwave trough as the former progresses esewd across the OH Valley and mid-Atlantic over the weekend. Meanwhile, a mid-upper level anticyclone will strengthen and lift nwd across the Rockies, then shift ewd over the nrn/cntl Plains. The trough will push south and east of the region next week as the high builds across the nrn/n-cntl CONUS. At the surface, a trough will remain in place until a backdoor cold front pushes swd- sswwd across the area Sun/Sun night. High pressure will ridge swd across and remain over the area through early-mid week, while an area of low pressure develops off/along the Carolina coast, though details remain uncertain. Expect the greatest chances and coverage of convective activity as the trough moves across the region Sat and Sun. Specific details wrt instability and available moisture vary between the NAM and GFS forecast soundings, with the GFS more moist and NAM more unstable, but overall the airmass is not expected to change significantly until after the fropa Sun. As for temperatures, the warmest day should be Sat, with highs ranging from upper 80s north to mid 90s south. Mon should be the (relatively) coolest day, with highs ranging from low 80s NW to mid 80s SE. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 100 PM Thursday... TAF period: VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. Some scattered convection is expected this afternoon, although coverage should be less than yesterday afternoon and is expected to remain confined to INT/GSO. Cannot rule out a rogue thunderstorm reaching as far east as RDU, but think that is rather unlikely. Although there was widespread low stratus this morning that impacted RWI and was just to the north of RDU, do not expect a repeat of that on Friday morning, considering the drier air in the area and less precipitation coverage expected this afternoon. Outlook: Thunderstorm coverage should remain meager once again on Friday, with INT the most likely location to have any thunderstorms. Widespread thunderstorm coverage along with flight restrictions are expected at all terminals on Saturday and Sunday, with convection limited to INT/GSO/FAY on Monday and all locations expected to be dry on Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: July 10: KRDU 99/1993 KFAY 103/1986 Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 10: KGSO 77/1981 KRDU: 77/2024 KFAY: 77/1998 July 11: KGSO 75/1992 KRDU: 77/1981 KFAY: 77/2024 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ088-089. && $$ DISCUSSION...Green/10 AVIATION...Green CLIMATE...RAH  768 FXUS63 KGRB 091817 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 117 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will come to an end by early this evening over parts of central and east-central Wisconsin. Severe storms are not expected. - Patchy to areas of ground fog are forecast to develop late tonight into Friday morning, which may result in localized travel impacts due to reduced visibilities. - Building heat and humidity early next week will bring a period of minor heat-related impacts, with heat index values forecast to rise into the middle to upper 90s on Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 116 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A weak surface cold front is currently draped across central and east-central Wisconsin early this afternoon, acting as the primary focus for scattered convective activity across the region. North of this boundary, high pressure and a much drier airmass are already filtering into northern Wisconsin. Looking at the broader synoptic setup, water vapor imagery reveals an intensifying mid- level ridge centered over the western United States. This ridge is forecast to amplify and expand northeastward toward the western Great Lakes over the weekend and into the early part of next week, becoming the main feature to impact the weather across north- central and northeast Wisconsin for the remainder of the forecast period. The near-term forecast through this evening centers on the scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity along the slow moving front. The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show the boundary stretching from near Wisconsin Rapids to Appleton and Kewaunee. Despite widespread cloud cover, a reservoir of boundary layer moisture and surface temperatures in the middle to upper 70s are generating mixed-layer CAPE values in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. This environment will continue to spark scattered showers and isolated storms through the late afternoon before the front fully sags south of the area. Given weak forcing, severe weather is not anticipated; however, high precipitable water values will allow any storm to produce heavy downpours and lightning. Most of the shower activity will quickly come to an end early this evening with the loss of diurnal heating. As the frontal boundary pushes south, focus turns toward fog potential late tonight. Drier air settling behind the front will mix out dewpoints into the 50s across far northern Wisconsin, thereby lowering the risk for dense fog. However, surface dewpoints will be slow to mix out across central and east-central Wisconsin this afternoon. Clearing skies and light winds under the building surface ridge will create optimal radiational cooling conditions, favoring the development of ground fog late tonight. The highest probability for dense fog resides across central Wisconsin, though east- central locations will likely see patchy fog as well. Any ground fog will burn off relatively early between 8 AM and 9 AM Friday, giving way to a fair-weather cumulus field by late morning. Friday afternoon will feature pleasant summer conditions across the region with highs in the low to mid 80s and comfortable humidity levels. For the extended period, the weather story is dominated by the arrival of the upper-level ridge and a subsequent warming trend. As the ridge builds closer over the weekend, a weak boundary is forecast to sag into northern Wisconsin, bringing a low 20 to 30 percent chance for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms on both Saturday and Sunday. By Monday and Tuesday, very warm temperatures aloft, with 700 mb temperatures climbing to 13C to 14C, will establish a strong capping inversion that will shut down precipitation chances. Projections of 925 mb and 850 mb temperatures support surface high temperatures expanding into the lower to middle 90s on both Monday and Tuesday. The NBM initialization shows dewpoints in the middle to upper 60s during this timeframe, which looks to be on the lower side of guidance. Bumped dewpoints up slight based on non-bias corrected data. This will yield widespread heat indices in the middle to upper 90s, bringing a threat for minor heat- related illnesses. A pattern shift toward the middle to end of next week is expected to break down the ridge and bring cooler relief. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A weak cold front is dropping south from roughly Wisconsin Rapids (ISW) to Appleton (ATW) late this morning. A mix of ceilings ranging from IFR to VFR exist along the front and across much of central, east-central, and far northeast WI. Skies are clearing across far northern WI as a drier airmass moves in the low levels. Widely scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible along and ahead of the boundary through 00Z. The IFR/MVFR ceilings are expected to gradually rise, but MVFR ceilings could persist through 20-22Z along the front. Brief downpours could drop visibilities to IFR in the heaviest shower activity. Skies are anticipated to clear tonight which will set up a favorable ground fog scenario. The most favored area for ground fog will be across central WI and parts of the Fox Valley where dewpoints will struggle to mix out this afternoon. LIFR/IFR flight conditions will be possible in the ground fog from 08-13Z Fri. Fair weather clouds are expected to build after the fog burns off later Fri morning. Light winds are expected over the TAF period. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....MPC AVIATION.......MPC  741 FXUS63 KILX 091816 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 116 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances will be highest late this afternoon into early evening, then again Friday night. A few of the storms will be on the strong side, but the main threat of that will be south of I-72. - Locally heavy rain will result in the potential for areas of flooding, with the focus shifting more into areas south of I-72 by Friday night. - Temperatures remain typical for July. While a warming trend takes place next week, humidity levels will make it feel less oppressive than last week's heat wave. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 116 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Short Term (through Saturday): Prominent MCV from the decaying convection across Missouri is about to cross the Mississippi River south of Pittsfield. Despite a fair amount of cirrus blowoff, MLCAPE's of 1000-1500 J/kg have allowed scattered storms to develop over the last hour across eastern Illinois. Recent Day1 convective outlook shifted the risk areas a little further south and are mainly concentrated south of I-72. Greatest downdraft CAPE is expected preceding the anticipated convection across central Illinois, though there remains some uncertainty with the extent of strong/severe storms. In general, much of the shower/storm activity is expected through sunset. While development of another MCS across Missouri is expected this evening, most of the high-res guidance keeps this to our southwest. A front across Iowa and southern Wisconsin is expected to only slowly drift southward the next couple days. Additional convective complexes are expected to ride along the boundary Friday night, and highest rain chances remain over the south half of the forecast area during this time. East-west upper troughing will set up during the weekend, keeping the frontal movement on the slow side. However, by late Saturday night, it should finally be near the Ohio River, ending the rain threat. Long Term (Sunday through Thursday): Little change in the forecast for next week. A sprawling upper high will dominate a large portion of the CONUS to start the week, before the ridging amplifies near the Plains by midweek. This pattern will result in seasonably warm temperatures near 90 degrees in our area, though with the Gulf cut off, humidity levels should not get as rough as last week's heat wave. Still, heat index levels of 95-100 degrees are likely Tuesday-Thursday. As the upper ridge establishes itself, we'll be on the periphery of a northwest flow, which can be favorable for MCS activity. Right now, that activity looks to be more across the Great Lakes region, so a dry forecast will be maintained in the extended period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Thunderstorms are expected to develop early this afternoon, as a small scale disturbance moves out of Missouri. Main focus for convection will be in the KSPI-KCMI corridor, closest to the track of this feature. Will include a 3-4 hour TEMPO period in this area for the highest potential, but maintain PROB30 groups at KPIA/KBMI where development is less certain. Going later into the night, focus shifts toward MVFR or potential IFR conditions, as a front settles into the area and winds become nearly calm. HREF probabilities of ceilings below 1000 feet peak around 11-13z at 40-60%. Will need to watch for this potential with upcoming TAF issuances, but for now, will go with MVFR ceilings mainly on the lower end. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Geelhart DISCUSSION...Geelhart AVIATION...Geelhart  753 FXUS63 KMQT 091816 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 216 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patches of dense fog will linger this morning, potentially impacting the morning commute. - A warming trend is forecast as high temperatures increase daily through at least Monday. Highs around 90 are becoming more likely Sunday into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 259 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The going forecast remains on track this morning. While remnant showers linger in the southern to southeastern UP this morning, the main weather impact of the morning will be patchy dense fog. Unfortunately, remnant high cloud cover remains over half of the UP, so satellite investigation of fog is limited somewhat. What does show on GOES-East Nighttime Microphysics is a mid-level cloud deck over the far west and patches of low stratus/fog for the Keweenaw Peninsula, with the CMX METAR showing 1/4SM visby to verify the density. Other METAR reports around the UP have shown some fogginess but the consistency has been tough to come by, so will hold off on any headlines for now. Once the morning fog clears, benign weather takes hold of the region as ridging gradually builds over the Upper Midwest Friday through Monday morning. By Monday, LREF 500mb height reaches the 99th percentile of climatology, and the building atmospheric thickness (as well as efficient diurnal heating with high surface pressure leading to clear skies) will allow temperatures to slowly climb. The LREF, which can sometimes run cool on high temp forecasts, is already calling for up to 75% chances of breaking 90 degrees on Monday for much of the interior UP. With LREF mean dew points in the 60s on Monday, heat indices into the triple digits will be in play (NBM mean apparent temperature does reach 100 in a few spots Monday), though there is enough moving parts in the setup to cause confidence in the forecast to be low. Confidence in the forecast deteriorates further for Tuesday and beyond as spread in how ensemble members resolve the strength and placement of a potential kicking trough over the Pacific Northwest. Should the trough not be strong enough or take a suboptimal path, the heat and lack of meaningful precip may last into the midweek period. On the other hand, the kicking trough may shift the ridge into a placement that brings more seasonable temperatures to the UP as well as more precip chances. LREF 10th-90th percentile spread is nearly 20 degrees by Wednesday evening, so confidence in the forecast is too low to deviate from the NBM at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 117 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Amended at 259 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Synoptic-scale subsidence is favored for today/Friday with seasonable temps. This weekend into early next week, anomalous midlevel anticyclone over the Four Corners region will build into the northern Plains by early next week. Impressive 500 mb heights approaching 600 dam are modeled by early next week over the northern Plains, +2 to +3 sigma as we approach the hottest time of the year. 850 mb temps in the low to possibly mid-20s (C) are similarly impressive. The upshot is growing confidence in a period of highs approaching or exceeding 90F Sunday through Tuesday. It does appear that humidity will be less of an additive factor to the apparent temps than the previous heat spell at the end of June/early July, as low-level trajectories will have more of a westerly/downsloping component off the high plains. Given the lack of deep-layer moisture and positioning downstream of the apex of the ridge, convective potential is fairly low until probably Tuesday, when there are indications of a possible backdoor front/ridge rider. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 216 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Dense fog has cleared out from all three sites, leaving VFR conditions at SAW, CMX, and IWD for the rest of today and into tonight. Winds are light and northerly during daytime hours, going calm or very light and variable around 00Z. Chances for fog redevelopment in the early Friday morning hours are nonzero; LAMP probabilities of LIFR visibility are less than 25% at all three sites and highest at CMX and SAW. Calm winds tonight will aid fog development, as will radiational cooling. LAMP probabilities for LIFR visibility are of similar magnitude to those of IFR or MVFR at all three sites 05Z-12Z, indicating that if fog does form, it could very well be dense. && .MARINE... Issued at 117 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026 High pressure building over the lake in the wake of a weak frontal boundary will maintain light winds through at least Saturday. Rain showers may lead to areas of fog through at least Thursday morning. A thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out this evening, especially closer to the shoreline, but overall potential is low. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ243>245-248>251-264>267. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ UPDATE... DISCUSSION...Thompson AVIATION...RE MARINE...Thompson  758 FXUS65 KGGW 091816 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 1216 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous heat and humidity are expected to cause impacts to northeast Montana this weekend. Highs will be in the 90s and 100s with lows in the mid 60s to low 70s. - Hot and dry weather and breezy conditions will lead to near critican fire weather concerns for Sunday afternoon, but recent precipitation and green fuels may limit the extent of the risk. - Temperatures will moderate early next week, but are expected to remain above average. && .DISCUSSION... WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A large upper ridge over the western U.S. will become firmly established over the weekend. This will lead to mainly dry and hot weather conditions with the Extreme Heat Watch continuing for the period. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will reach into the 90s and 100s with lows in the 60s and 70s. In addition, this heat wave will be more humid than usual, especially in the northeastern zones where dew points may remain in the 60s. These prolonged conditions may raise risk for heat related illnesses. Additionally, ensemble guidance is pointing to breezy conditions Sunday afternoon with southeast wind gusts potentially greater than 30 mph. If this comes to fruition in the presence of humidity in the teens and 20s, near critical fire weather conditions may emerge for parts of the area. Recent precipitation and green fuels may limit the overall extent of the risk, but this period remains worth monitoring. While conditions will moderate some and precipitation chances will return next week, overall temperatures will remain near to above normal for this time of year, and heat stresses could last well into next week, especially for sensitive groups. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Minor adjustments to pops and humidity for the short term period were made for collaboration with neighbors and consistency. Otherwise NBM was left untouched. Ensembles are in line with good consensus for the hot and dry weather this weekend with above average confidence. Even if forecast maximums come in below expectations, the humid air mass would offset that moderation. Additionally, the combination of hot and humid conditions with little overnight recovery leave enough justification to keep the messaging going. && .AVIATION... UPDATED: Thursday July 9 at 1800Z FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR DISCUSSION: Mainly dry weather is expected over the taf cycle as upper ridging begins to gain an influence. Hot temperatures with highs above 100 degrees this weekend may lead to equipment issues. WIND: Northwest winds will range from 5 to 15 kts this afternoon, becoming light and variable after 03Z. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday morning through late Sunday night for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Daniels-Dawson-Eastern Roosevelt-Garfield-McCone-Northern Phillips-Northern Valley-Petroleum-Prairie-Richland-Sheridan- Southwest Phillips-Western Roosevelt-Wibaux. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow  708 FXUS66 KPQR 091815 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 1115 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Persistent onshore flow will continue to yield dry and seasonable weather through this weekend. Temperatures trend warmer early next week as high pressure builds over the Plains. Beyond midweek, forecast uncertainty increases but dry and hotter weather is favored. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Wednesday...Pleasant, seasonable, and benign weather is expected to continue through this weekend as zonal flow aloft turns southwesterly ahead of an upper-level trough moving onshore into British Columbia on Saturday. Temperatures will remain near seasonal norms, reaching afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s in interior valleys and low to mid 60s along the coast each afternoon. Inland intrusions of low marine stratus clouds overnight will largely clear to sunny skies each day, aside from more persistent coastal clouds Friday and a deeper inland intrusion Saturday morning as the trough makes its closest approach. These clouds will help keep Friday and Saturday a few degrees cooler. By the beginning of next week, a broad upper-level ridge over the Central Plains will amplify, pushing heights aloft upward locally. This will result in warmer temperatures Monday and Tuesday, with afternoon highs most likely in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees within inland valleys and mid 60s to near 70 degrees on the coast. Temperatures look to peak on Tuesday, with the chances to exceed 90 degrees reaching 25-40% along the I-5 corridor from Portland southward. The chances for Moderate HeatRisk reach 25-45%, highest in the lower Tualatin Valley (Beaverton, Tigard, Tualatin) and adjacent portions of Multnomah and Clackamas Counties (Portland, Wilsonville, Canby), while the chances of Major HeatRisk remain less than 5%. While forecast uncertainty increases, the ensemble consensus is that another trough will move into western Canada midweek, pushing temperatures back down a few degrees on Wednesday, resulting in widespread Minor HeatRisk. Looking slightly beyond the 7-day forecast period, the ensemble consensus suggests the robust inland ridge may retrograde to the west, resulting in increased chances for more hazardous heat toward the end of next week. At this lead time, the chances for Major HeatRisk reach 10-25% from Salem north to the lower Cowlitz Valley and Portland east through the Columbia Gorge from next Thursday into the following weekend. -36 && .AVIATION...Zonal flow aloft gradually turning southwest tonight ahead of an approaching upper level trough. Predominately VFR conditions are expected for inland terminals through at least 12z Friday, while VFR is likely at the coast until 02-04z Friday. Some lingering stratus near KAST is expected to scatter out by 19z. Marine stratus will likely push back on shore this evening with probs for lower- end MVFR CIGs increasing to around 80-90% after 06z Fri, while chances for IFR conditions are lower at around 20-30%. As the upper trough approaches expect the marine layer to deepen with increasing chances for stratus to push farther inland, though chances for MVFR reaching the Portland metro remain capped at around 20-40% between 12-18z Friday. North to northwest winds increase again this afternoon with gusts up to 25 kt at coastal terminals. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR under mostly clear skies expected through at least 12z Friday. A marine push may return stratus to the area early Friday morning with around a 20-40% chance of MVFR CIGs between 12-18z Fri. Northwest winds expected to increase to around 8-10 kt this afternoon. /DH && .MARINE...High pressure over the waters today will maintain breezy north to northwest winds through this evening. Gusts up to 20 kt will be possible south of Cape Foulweather. A weak cold front will move across the waters on Friday, ultimately disrupting the high pressure and decreasing winds across the waters. High pressure effetely rebuilds over the coastal waters through the weekend, returning northerly winds later Saturday and increasing pressure gradients on Sunday, returning chances for gusts up to 25 kt. Seas are expected to remain around 4 to 6 ft as relatively benign conditions persist through the weekend and into the start of next week. /DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  906 FXUS61 KILN 091821 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 221 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Flood watch for the south through Saturday evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms late tonight. Locally heavy rainfall is possible south of I-70. 2) A low pressure system will track across the Ohio Valley Saturday into Saturday night offering the potential for heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding. 3) Drier and warmer conditions for next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Showers and a few lingering thunderstorms across the eastern counties associated with an embedded shortwave will diminish late this aftn as the system shifts off to the east. A convective system will come track from Illinois this evening and approach the region overnight in a weakening state. Some uncertainty continues regarding exact timing and placement with ILN/s southern counties in the most favorable place for heavy rain with PWATs expected to be at 2 inches or above. With the potential for heavy rain and flooding, have issued a flood watch beginning tonight across the south. Convective activity shifts east by mid morning with some decrease in coverage but additional scattered convection will likely redevelop during the afternoon in the moderately unstable airmass. KEY MESSAGE 2) Mid level short wave over the Mid Mississippi Valley early Saturday will track slowly east-southeast Saturday and Saturday night. An associated surface low will track across southern Indiana into central Kentucky. Showers and storms will ahead of the low with a more focused axis of coverage across ILN/s southern counties. Heavy rain and the potential for flooding will continue across the south with some drying from north to south Saturday night. The flood watch continues into Saturday night for portions of Southeast Indiana, Southern Ohio, and Northern Kentucky. KEY MESSAGE 3) Large mid level ridge of high pressure that develops over the Northern and Central Plains will extend eastward into the region. This will result in dry weather for early to mid week. In addition, temperatures will trend upwards with readings likely getting into the lower 90s for the period Tuesday thru Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions across the region with with clouds between 3500 and 4500 feet. A weakening complex of showers and thunderstorms will move into the region after 06Z, but there is still uncertainty on timing and placement. Have included PROB30 for this potential at all TAF sites for the period late tonight into Friday morning. MVFR ceilings may develop late tonight/early Friday with the best potential across KCVG and KLUK. Convective activity shifts east by mid morning with some decrease in coverage but additional scattered convection will likely redevelop during the afternoon in the moderately unstable airmass. West to southwest around 10 kts will weaken this evening. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible through Saturday night. MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities possible late Friday night into Saturday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through late Saturday night for OHZ073-074-078>082-088. KY...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through late Saturday night for KYZ089>100. IN...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through late Saturday night for INZ075-080. && $$ DISCUSSION...AR AVIATION...AR  864 FXUS65 KBOU 091820 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1220 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms through early evening, with a few severe storms possible over the northeast plains. - Prolonged period of very to hot temperatures arrive Saturday, lasting through most of next week. && .DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/... Issued at 1209 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Airmass has dried slightly over the past 24 hours with precipitable water ~0.60 (in). This is about a tenth inch decrease from yesterday at this time on the Denver ACARS sounding. Water vapor satellite imagery also shows this drier air. One can also pick out a shortwave trough centered roughly over southwest Wyoming. We'll see a slight increase in moisture and lift this afternoon as this wave advances eastward. MLCAPE has trended lower as well with 400-1000J/kg expected this afternoon across northeast Colorado. The far northeast plains may end up more unstable, up to 1500J/kg. Gusty outflow winds up to 70, brief heavy rain, and small hail are expected to be the main threats today with the highest threat over the far northeast plains.   The upper level ridge off to the southwest  begins to build northward Friday, causing flow aloft to turn northwesterly. Precipitable water values will be similar to today's, with slightly less instability. Most of the storms Friday are expected to form over the higher terrain and the Palmer Divide due to a lack of large scale lift tomorrow afternoon. The number of storms is expected to decrease because of this. Northwest flow aloft will push the storms southeastward, potentially leaving the far northeast plains free of storms.   The ridge intensifies and will be centered over Utah and Colorado on Saturday. Mid level temperatures will warm, and the airmass will dry. Can't rule out a stray shower/weak storm over the Palmer Divide and Front Range Mountains/Foothills, but chances are low (less than 20%). Elsewhere, dry conditions will prevail. Surface temperatures warm as well, with highs reaching the 90s across northeast Colorado.  For Sunday and next week, the ridge continues to intensify as it tracks northeastward. The 500mb heights are expected to top 600 (DAM) which is impressive, especially since the high will park itself over Wyoming and South Dakota. East to southeast flow around the high will help hold in some low level moisture over eastern Colorado. This low level moisture and the weak upslope easterly winds will likely keep areas along the Front Range and across the eastern plains from breaking records. As for areas west of the Continental Divide, this easterly flow will be a downslope component and help dry the airmass, For Summit and Grand Counties, record highs will be likely and all time records could be reached. Chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Thursday are very low over the higher terrain, and almost nil across the Front Range and eastern plains.  && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday/... Issued at 1055 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds are currently northeast at all terminals and should continue for the afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will then develop over the foothills in the next few hours and then trek east throughout the afternoon. Have kept the TEMPO groups as is for all TAF sites, with gusty VRB outflow winds of 35-40 kts possible. Expect convection to end by 00Z, with outflow boundaries mainly keeping winds from the east this evening. Tonight, a bit more westerly wind is possible within the drainage flow. For tomorrow, light northeasterly winds are expected again. Despite a decrease in moisture, another round of isolated showers are possible later in the afternoon. Have introduced a PROB30 for this reason, with gusts of 25 kts. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...MAI  931 FXUS66 KSGX 091821 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 1121 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS... The warming trend will continue today with high temperatures for Friday and Saturday a few degrees cooler. The flow across the area becomes southeasterly for Sunday into next week allowing for an influx of monsoonal moisture. For Sunday into the middle of next week, there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms with the greater chances over the mountains and during the afternoon and early evening each day. Increasing humidity will result in warmer nights and higher HeatRisk by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)... The warming trend will continue today with high temperatures for Friday and Saturday a few degrees cooler. There will be widespread major HeatRisk for the lower deserts today with widespread moderate HeatRisk for other inland areas. High temperatures for today will be around average near the coast to 5 to 10 degrees above average for the mountains, deserts, and inland valleys. High temperatures for today will range from the 70s near the coast to the mid 90s to 104 for the Inland Empire with 113 to 117 for the lower deserts. Night and morning coastal low clouds will spread into the far western valleys at times into the weekend. && .LONG TERM (Sunday through Wednesday)... As the center of strong high pressure moves to the northeast, the flow across the area will become southeasterly allowing for an influx of monsoonal moisture for late Saturday into Sunday with growing spread by the middle of next week as to what degree that greater moisture persists. There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning on Sunday with the greater chances over the mountains and during the afternoon and early evening each day. There will be warming of low temperatures with low temperatures mostly 5 to 10 degrees above average by Wednesday and Thursday of next week. For Wednesday and Thursday of next week, there could be low temperatures for the coast and valleys mostly in the upper 60s to mid 70s and in the lower deserts in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Those warming low temperatures will result in higher HeatRisk for most areas with moderate or greater HeatRisk for most areas for Wednesday of next week except at higher elevations in the mountains and near the coast. There will be moderate to major HeatRisk for the lower deserts, the valleys, and inland Orange County. && .AVIATION... 091800Z....Coast/Valleys...Low clouds have cleared inland areas and are clinging to the coast with bases around 1,200ft MSL. There is a 30-40% chance that these low clouds will stick to most coastal areas through the TAF period. Low clouds will begin their march inland after 02-03Z Friday, reaching inland 20 miles by 06-07Z. Bases will be 700-1,100ft MSL with VIS 2-6SM along elevated coastal terrain. Low clouds will start their retreat after 15Z, clearing most coastal locations by 18Z Friday. .Mountains/Deserts...VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Wednesday. && .BEACHES... Astronomical high tides of 7.0-7.2 ft are forecast July 12-14. Higher than normal tides combined with a modest south swell (3 ft swell 14/15 seconds from 190 degrees) generating surf of 4-6 ft may result in areas of coastal flooding in low lying areas, boardwalks, beach parking lots, and beach adjacent streets during evening high tides. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Friday for Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for Coachella Valley- San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Martin AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Villafane  059 FXUS64 KBRO 091823 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 123 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 105 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Low (15-30%) chances of rain this afternoon and late tonight increase to a low to medium (30-60%) chance by tomorrow afternoon from possible rounds of showers and thunderstorms. - High moisture content could result in heavy rain into tomorrow and a few areas may receive up to an inch or more, most likely along/east of US-281/I-69 E. - Afternoon heat indices of around 100-105 F and minor heat risks (level 1 of 4) this afternoon warm and escalate to 105-110 F with a mostly moderate heat risk (level 2 of 4) tomorrow into the middle of next week. - A medium risk of rip currents continues through tomorrow afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 105 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The combination of weak troughing aloft over northeastern Mexico and an influx of deep and tropical moisture via southeasterly winds, gusting to 20-25 mph, bring the potential for several rounds of isolated to scattered, possibly numerous, showers and thunderstorms today into tomorrow. Due to the disorganized nature of convection from weak forcing, forecast confidence over the next 24-48 hours is medium at best and is likely to change. However, our latest forecast holds a low (15-30%) chance of rain along the seabreeze boundary moving from the Lower to Middle RGV throughout this afternoon and early evening hours from the initial onslaught of significantly enhanced moisture currently developing showers and thunderstorms just offshore. As PWAT values of 2.0+ in. spread to most of deep south Texas tonight through tomorrow night, a low to medium (20-40%) chance of rain late tonight along/east of I-69 E increases to a low to medium (30-60%) chance and expands westward to the I-69 C/US-281 corridor by tomorrow afternoon, with the higher chances over eastern portions of the Northern Ranchlands. Given such high moisture content, there exists the potential for heavy rain. By Saturday morning, we expect nearly half of locations along/east of US-281 to receive at least 0.20-0.30 of an inch of rain by Saturday morning, most concentrated across along/near the coast as well as portions of the Middle RGV, where we anticipate generally between a half inch to an inch of rainfall. Despite the potential for extended periods of cloud cover reducing diurnal instability just a bit, heavy rain developing or training could lead to isolated 1-3+ inches, most likely within the areas mentioned, especially late tonight into tomorrow afternoon when PWAT values could peak as high as 2.75 in. Global models are in agreement that the westward expansion of a high pressure aloft over the Gulf is likely to cut down on chances of rain on Saturday, with a low (15-30%) chance along the afternoon seabreeze across the Northern Ranchlands, decreasing to a 15-20% chance on Sunday and Monday afternoons. Yet, pulses of deep moist air streaming in off the Gulf could still result in more isolated pockets of heavy rain. Another area of weak upper level troughing could return a low chance (15-30%) of showers and thunderstorms along the afternoon seabreeze by the middle to later parts of next week. Increasing cloud cover holds high temperatures in the low/mid 90s today and tomorrow. Meanwhile, increasing moisture content warms and escalates afternoon heat indices from around 100-105 F with a minor heat risk today to near 105-110 F with mainly or all moderate heat risks tomorrow into next Tuesday. Following, drier air and increasing cloud cover may result in minor to moderate heat risks as afternoon indices peak close to 100-110 F. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 An area of convection just offshore the Lower Texas coast has resulted in VCTS reported at KBRO at this time, though the closest detected lightning has been around 45+ SM to the east. PROB30s have been introduced to the 18Z TAF cycle as the moisture over the Gulf begins to work its way inland via the seabreeze boundary; ongoing cloud cover could result in VCSH for KBRO and KHRL later this afternoon and into the early evening hours, yet abundant sunshine and enhanced inland instability may lead to VCTS at KMFE. Chances of rain decrease into the later evening and early night hours tonight before increasing back to a low chance late tonight and into tomorrow afternoon for KBRO and KHRL as showers and thunderstorms develop. Southeasterly winds of around 10-15 knots, with gusts up to around 20-25 knots this afternoon decrease back to gentle tonight into midday tomorrow as VFR conditions prevail, though brief periods of reduced instability are possible from potential heavy rain within showers and thunderstorms that develop. && .MARINE... Issued at 105 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds and slight to moderate (2-5 ft) seas continue through the next 7 days along with potential brief periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines. Chances of rain incise to as much as a low to medium (20-50%) tonight through tomorrow afternoon as rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue. Low (15-30%) chances of rain follow tomorrow night into next Monday and may return by the middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 78 92 81 94 / 40 40 10 10 HARLINGEN 75 93 78 95 / 30 40 10 20 MCALLEN 78 96 81 98 / 10 30 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 76 96 79 99 / 10 20 10 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 87 82 88 / 50 40 20 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 90 80 92 / 40 40 20 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...65-Irish LONG TERM....65-Irish AVIATION...65-Irish  175 FXUS63 KBIS 091824 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 124 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through this evening. - A strong warming trend is expected through the rest of the week, with very hot daily high temperatures around 95 to 105 forecast this weekend through early next week. An Excessive Heat Watch is in effect from Saturday through Monday. - Mainly dry conditions are expected through the hot spell. && .UPDATE... Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Only lingering convection from earlier remains around Sheridan and Wells Counties, and has weakened significantly. With that said, the severe threat remains in place for later today, although some guidance has shifted the threat a little bit eastward with initiation late afternoon/very early evening as the approaching frontal boundary works into the area. UPDATE Issued at 844 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Morning convection continues to push to the east, but has been taming down a bit and broadening out over the past hour as it passes through northwest and west-central North Dakota. Further east, some additional echos have formed along an outflow boundary over north central North Dakota, pushing into and north of Minot. Expect this to remain weak as it appears to be well ahead of the elevated instability corridor. Would not be surprised to see some additional weak convection forming along the aforementioned easterly/southeasterly moving outflow which is showing up pretty clearly on satellite stretching from near Minot to Dickinson, and off to the southwest. UPDATE Issued at 653 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Scattered thunderstorms have pushed into northwest North Dakota this morning. These storms are producing some stronger winds gusts, with a few gusts of 55 to 60 mph over northeast Montana over the past hour. Currently winds are gusting to around 40 mph over northwest ND. We did issue an SPS for a more vigorous cell in northern McKenzie county recently. In general, think this activity will remain sub-severe as it tracks into the north central this morning, although a marginally severe gust or hail stone (dime sized hail in northeast Montana this past hour) can not be ruled out. As mentioned in the previous discussion, very little certainty as to how this convection may influence storms that may or may not develop later today. For the time being, we spread some chance pops across northwest and into north central ND with the morning update and we will go from there. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A quasi-zonal flow will remain across the forecast area today and tonight. A shortwave trough and associated cold front will provide the potential for strong to severe storms this afternoon and this evening across the forecast area. Building upper height will then dominate through the weekend with an extended period of very hot temperatures and oppressive heat through the weekend and into next week. Currently skies ranged from clear east to mostly cloudy west as cirrus from Montana convection pushes into the state. Temperatures are mainly in the upper 50s to upper 60s early this morning. For today...A shortwave trough tracking through southern Canada will push an attendant cold front into northwest ND by this evening. Meanwhile, convection currently along the associated warm front over eastern Montana will push into North Dakota this morning. CAMS are in disagreement on how this convection will evolve this morning. Some keep convection along the International Border, some extend convection farther south and others bring convection almost to the South Dakota border this morning. There is also a lot of uncertainty in how far east convection spreads as well as the extent of this convection (isolated versus scattered). Forecast soundings indicate elevated instability over the area today. Currently there is some stronger effective shear over western ND with slightly unstable CAPE values pushing into the state from Montana. Through at least mid-morning, it looks like Effective shear will diminish but Cape will slowly increase. As mentioned earlier CAMS are in general disagreement, but most do at least bring some convection into the northwest this morning. How it evolves after this is uncertain. Also uncertain is how this will impact convection later today. In general, once the initial shortwave trough and associated convection moves through during the day, the forcing for ascent later in the day is not great. Medium range models indicate pressure falls in eastern Montana and western ND this morning, strongest early in the morning, then there are little if any pressure falls at all this afternoon, before meager falls this evening tracking through north central to northeast ND. At the surface today, low pressure moves into western ND around midday then slowly pushes east through the afternoon. By mid to late afternoon there is a pre-frontal trough over western ND pushing slowly into central ND and a Cold front that is pushing into northwest ND. A very unstable airmass will be situated over much of western and central ND with MLCAPE values around 3000 J/Kg. Although bulk shear is not great, there is sufficient shear (around 25 to 35 knots) orientated nearly perpendicular across the surface trough from southwest into north central ND. The question becomes, will there be enough forcing for ascent from the surface convergence along the trough and only weak waves moving through the broad upper level flow. If so, there will be the potential for rapidly developing supercells within the very unstable airmass and steepening lapse rates. Large hail to around 2 inches will be possible across central ND, along with winds gusts to 60 mph. Although parameters are not necessarily favorable for a tornado, given the slow moving boundary and supercell potential, a tornado can not be ruled out over central ND. Large hail looks to be the greatest hazard though. With all that said, currently cams do not look all that excited with convection later this afternoon through this evening. A few show convection developing southwest-south central and only a few show some convection developing over central ND. Wondering if this is due to at least in some extent to the CAMS showing convection tracking across the area today, associated with the ongoing Montana convection, thus CAMS are assimilating a slow recovery behind this convection. So a lot may depend on how things evolve this morning and early afternoon. If convection does not track across the area, perhaps there will be a better severe potential later today. Either way, if convection does develop later this afternoon, into the evening, there threat fore severe storms will remain. In addition, there is an approaching cold front. If convection does hold off until this evening, bulk shear increases significantly, and there may be more threat of clusters of storms (moreso north) as the shear vectors are more parallel to the approaching cold front. Will continue to monitor. Once convection ends tonight, attention turns to an extended period of very hot temperatures and oppressive heat indices. We have issued an Extreme Heat Watch beginning midday Saturday and continuing through Monday evening. Sunday still looks to be the day with the highest potential for Heat Impacts, but all three days (Saturday through Monday) will see highs mainly in the mid 90s to around 100 to 105. Hottest temperatures will be in the southwest, but humidity will be higher in the northwest and central. It's possible that southern portions of the forecast area will see another day of hot temperatures and heat related impacts on Tuesday, but the uncertainty increases a bit and the north does cool off a little. Beyond Monday there is a bit of a drop in NBM ensemble high temperatures, but the spread also increases significantly. In the Saturday through Monday timeframe, the NBM ensemble spreads have actually tightened up. This has increased confidence in the potential for an impactful heat wave this weekend into early next week, in addition to the warm overnight lows only dropping to around 70 degrees. Therefore we went ahead with the Excessive Heat Watch. Shower and thunderstorm chances remain minimal through the weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon into the night time hours before moving east. Some of these storms may be severe, with large hail and strong wind gusts. These storms have been addressed with PROB30 groups in most TAFs. After the thunderstorm threat ends, VFR conditions are expected to prevail with light winds. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Monday night for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-023-025- 031>033-035>037-040>044-046>048-050-051-055>062. && $$ UPDATE...JJS/TWH DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...JJS  611 FXUS61 KGYX 091830 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 230 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The forecast remains on track for this afternoon and evening as convection is initiating to our west and will move in over the next couple of hours. Storms may become strong to severe with gusty to damaging winds being the main hazard. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Warm and humid conditions continue into Friday south of the mountains. A few strong thunderstorms are possible as well. 2. Weekend weather looks slightly cooler and mostly dry, except for the chance for a few showers in southern NH and southwest ME on Saturday. 3. Mostly dry to start next week with increasing temperatures and humidity before the chance for showers and storms returning mid week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A cold front continues to sink southward through the forecast area this evening providing the forcing for some strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. Any severe storm will be capable of producing damaging winds. The cold front ends up closer to the coast by Friday morning bringing relief from the humidity to locations in the mountains and foothills as drier air also sinks southward behind the front. Closer to the front, on the coastal plain and in southern New Hampshire, dew points remain elevated but temperatures do come down slightly as winds shift northwesterly. This is going to result in a continued mugginess as the upper 80s ambient temperatures feel more like low 90s. North of the mountains dewpoints should already be falling into the upper 50s and low 60s with ambient temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s. Friday night looks like a good night to open the windows and flush out the heat and humidity as low temperatures fall into the 50s and 60s. Severe weather potential, and coverage of any storms, looks low Friday as the main source of forcing is going to be continuing to sink southward, eventually exiting the area. However, it can not be completely ruled out. The 09/12Z HREF suggests 500-800 J/kg of CAPE still present along and near the front with around 25-30kts of bulk shear. This suggests organized storm development, but the mid-level lapse rates around 5 C/km is what is making me think coverage will be isolated. This is reflected in the 12Z CAMs as they show next to nothing developing. I don't think it will go quite that route, so I did keep low chance PoPs along the coast. Any storm that does develop has the fuel to grow, and with temperatures near 90F low level lapse rates would likely support strong winds. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Mostly dry conditions are expected for the weekend with high pressure nudging in from the northwest from Quebec. For Saturday afternoon, diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will be possible south of the mountains due to a 500 mb shortwave trough crossing the region with precip mainly confined to places near and around southern portions of our CWA. Based on recent Hi-Res model guidance, I'd give these shower and thunderstorm chances on the lower side, but most models are hinting that these showers would stay confined to Rockingham and Strafford counties in NH and York county in ME. Regarding the temperatures, I would expect the mid 80s for the weekend, with 70s along the immediate coastline, with both afternoons featuring a sea breeze, lowering temperatures going into the evening hours. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Looking ahead to next week, high pressure looks to stick around at least until Tuesday morning. Noting this, heat looks to be building starting Monday with temperatures in the upper 80s with humidity on the lower side. Starting Tuesday, however, the heat and humidity look to build, with some models indicating temperatures in the middle of next week approaching the low to mid 90s away from the immediate coastline, with humidity levels making temperatures feel like the upper 90s as dewpoints approach the upper 60s to low 70s. On Tuesday or Wednesday, a shortwave trough looks to approach from our north, moving a front across our area which potentially results in shower and thunderstorm chances. In the coming days, trends will be monitored regarding the trough and front on how this impacts temperatures as well as rain chances for the middle to latter half of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 18Z Friday...VFR continues through the remainder of the afternoon, with chances for showers and thunderstorms increasing this evening that may cause TEMPO MVFR conditions. Coverage of thunderstorms is not expected to be widespread so mention in the TAFs is limited. Fog development is higher confidence and may be fairly widespread with increasing moisture across the area. IFR conditions have been mentioned at most terminals for tonight as a result. Any fog should clear up around 12Z Friday with VFR expected to prevail through the afternoon. Coastal terminals may see some MVFR in afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Outlook... Friday night: Mostly VFR conditions expected as drier air moves into the area behind a front. Saturday: Brief instances of MVFR possible from -SHRA in the vicinity of the NH terminals and PWM. VFR otherwise. Sunday-Monday: VFR expected. Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon that may bring MVFR or IFR restrictions. && .MARINE... Wave heights are generally 3-4ft Friday night, with more in the way of 5ft seas as one nears the 25nm mark. Winds remain southwesterly through much of Friday before a front crosses the waters and shifts them offshore. Wind gusts are expected to remain below 25kts. Areas of fog are likely tonight as southwesterly winds increase moisture in the region. Saturday-Thursday...High pressure builds in from the north this weekend, keeping conditions under SCA levels. South to southwest flow may increase to SCA levels early next week as a cold front approaches and the high shift east of the waters. The front looks to cross the waters around Tuesday or Wednesday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ012-013. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Baron/Krampf/Combs AVIATION...Baron/Combs MARINE...Baron/Combs  828 FXUS63 KABR 091831 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 131 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Slight (Level 2 of 5) to Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms to develop this afternoon through evening for central South Dakota. Hail of 1 to 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts of 60 to 70 miles per hour will be the main threats. - A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms to develop Friday afternoon into evening over far eastern SD and west central MN. Hail of 1 inch in diameter will be the main threat. - A warming trend begins by the end of the week, and highs may potentially hit triple digits Sunday through Tuesday. This level of heat may cause widespread heat related impacts particularly for those without adequate cooling and those sensitive to heat. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 131 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A frontal boundary will be moving over western SD this afternoon and then pushing east into central SD during the evening and overnight hours. Instability over central SD will be increasing through the day, with CAPE values looking to get up onto the 1000-2000 J/kg and shear values between 30-35kts. This will make for a good environment for storms to continue to move into and/or develop over central SD during the later afternoon into the evening hours. There is a slight (level 2 of 5) to marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for these storms to become severe. With DCAPE values of 1200-1300 J/kg and lapse rates of 7.5 C/km, the primary hazards are large hail of 1 to 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts of 60-70 mph. Into the overnight hours, the storms will continue to move east into a weaker environment that will likely cause the storms to dissipate before they reach northeastern SD. Friday morning, the frontal boundary will be moving into northeastern SD. As it moves in during the early morning, some isolated showers and storms could develop in that area as it will have a little bit of instability. Though there will not be a lot of shear for severe storm development. Additionally, weaker lapse rates will reduce the risk for large hail. There could be some gusty winds as well as some small hail that could occur in the storms that pop up. The boundary will not move too much through the day, and with a fair bit of instability building up over northeastern SD through the day, storms could develop during the afternoon into the evening over northeastern SD and west central MN. At the moment, the NAM shows up to 30 kts of shear and lapse rates around 6-7 C/km, which could help with hail development. This leads to the primary threat from the storms to be hail up to 1 inch in diameter, though some stronger wind gusts cannot be ruled out. An upper-level ridge will be moving high pressure in over SD this weekend. This will help to keep precipitation chances from developing showers and storms over central and northeastern SD Saturday through Monday. The high pressure will also help move warm temperatures, about 10-20 degrees warmer than normal, in during the weekend and into the beginning of next week. Max temperatures and heat index values will be in the 90s on Saturday and in the mid 90s to triple digits Sunday and Monday. We are holding off on an extreme heat watch/warning at the moment because the days with the highest risk are still a few days out and things could still change a bit. Central and northeastern SD and west central MN are right on the edge of extreme heat warning criteria, and might fall more into a heat advisory. Because of the lower confidence in things at the moment, a heat headline will likely need to be issued a little later. The high temperatures and heat index values as well as the warmer low temperatures at night have caused the NWS Heat Risk to show high chances of getting into Major category as well as some lower chances of getting into Extreme category Saturday through Tuesday. During these times, those sensitive to heat or without adequate cooling or hydration could see heat related impacts and/or develop heat illnesses. Make sure to avoid strenuous outdoor work and exercise during the hottest parts of the day and to stay hydrated. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG There are VFR conditions this afternoon and into the evening. KABR and KATY will see these conditions continue while some scattered afternoon cumulus clouds sit in the sky this afternoon. KPIR and KMBG could see conditons degrade a little during the evening as thunderstorms are forecast to move into central SD between 22/23z into the evening. There is a slight (level 2 of 5) to marginal (level 1 of 5) for storms to become severe, with hail up to 1 to 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph. The storms will dissipate overnight back into VFR conditions. KPIR and KMBG could also see wind gusts up to 20kts through the evening before the storms arrive. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...12  631 FXUS63 KFGF 091830 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 130 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Level 2 out of 5 risk late afternoon and evening today for the Devils Lake area and a level 1 out of 5 risk tonight into the northern Red River valley. Hail and wind are the primary risk with any storms. - Dangerous heat index values likely this weekend into Monday. The hottest temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday, with heat indices of 100 to 110 degrees likely. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...Synopsis... Strong H5 ridging is developing over the Southwestern CONUS, which will drift into the Central Rockies, then into the Midwest by late this weekend. Ahead of this, a weak boundary is slowly moving eastward into eastern North Dakota this afternoon and evening. Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected along and ahead of the boundary, with a few severe storms possible through late this evening. Additional showers and isolated storms linger overnight as the boundary moves very slowly to the east through midday Friday. Warmer temperatures begin to build into the area heading into Saturday, with highs expected to reach the upper 80s Friday afternoon and the mid-90s Saturday afternoon. Hot and humid conditions prevail Sunday and Monday, with air temps in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees, and heat index values upwards of 100-110 degrees. Heading into Tuesday, the H5 ridge should start to flatten and drift westward, allowing northwest flow to return to the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday are still expected to be above average, but with slightly lower humidity. ...Severe Thunderstorm Chances This Afternoon and Evening... A slow moving boundary will provide an axis of development for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Ahead of this boundary, instability and shear are supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms as early as mid afternoon. The main uncertainty will be the timing of initiation, mainly due to ongoing thunderstorm activity in central North Dakota and the western portions of the Devils Lake Basin. This activity is providing just enough surface inhibition in it's wake to potentially delay future convection until later this afternoon. The overall environment remains supportive of supercells, capable of all hazards once initiation occurs. Chances are highest in the Devils Lake Basin, with slightly lower chances across the Red River Valley. ...Dangerous Heat This Weekend into Monday... Strong ridging is in the process of strengthening over the Central Rockies, and is expected to build to the north and east through this weekend. Anomalous heights upwards of 600dM are being highlighted by the majority of ensemble members, allowing temps to climb well into the 90s on Saturday, then approach the 100 degree mark on Sunday and Monday. With dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s, heat index values are expected to reach 100 degrees or higher, especially Sunday and Monday as the ridge axis aligns atop the Northern Plains. Wet bulb globe temps will climb into the upper 80s Sunday and Monday, signifying high to extreme categorical heat risk both days. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the period at all TAF sites outside of thunderstorm activity. There is a chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms, mainly in the vicinity of KDVL and KGFK late this afternoon and evening. Confidence in coverage is quite low at this time, thus went with a PROB30 group. Otherwise, minimal impact potential is expected at this time. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday morning through late Monday night for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049- 052>054. MN...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday morning through late Monday night for MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-029-030-040. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...Lynch  889 FXUS62 KCHS 091831 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 231 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections have been updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A prolonged heat wave will maintain hot and humid conditions through the end of the week and into the start of the weekend. - 2) Typical summertime afternoon and evening thunderstorms this week with increasing rain chances Sunday through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A prolonged heat wave will maintain hot and humid conditions through the end of the week and into the start of the weekend. West winds are supporting temperatures rising into the upper 90s and approaching triple digits at a few sites. Dewpoints are running a bit lower than 24 hours ago which is keeping heat indices from getting too high. We are seeing a few sites rising into the 110-115 degree range along the coast, but overall heat indices are trailing yesterday just a bit. The Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory continues through 7 pm. For Friday, the region will solidly placed along the northern periphery of the subtropical anticyclone aloft centered just to the east of the Bahamas. Low-level thickness and 850 hPa temperatures will change little from Thursday with values holding 1437-1442m and 20-22C respectively. The day will start off rather warm with temperatures likely to warm quickly after daybreak. Soundings and low-level thickness schemes support another day of highs in the upper 90s to near 100 with some locations likely surpassing 100. The record highs at both KCHS and KSAV could be challenged. Guidance does show mid-level moisture drying out a bit in response to a dry slot passing through aloft. This coupled with vertical deep mixing should help mix out dewpoints into the upper 60s inland which will limit heat indices there compared to the past few days. Closer to the coast, some mixing is also likely too occur into the early afternoon before dewpoints surge again with the passage of the sea breeze. Similar to the past few days, dewpoints are expected to pool back into the upper 70s/lower 80s near/behind the sea breeze itself. The inland progression of the boundary does look to propagate inland a bit later than usual with the best pooling of dewpoints likely to occur across the lower South Carolina coast, especially the Charleston County coast. Coastal heat indices are poised to peak in the 108-112 in the coastal corridor with 110-115 along the Charleston County coast. For this reason, a Heat Advisory has been posted for the coastal counties as well as Dorchester and Inland Berkeley with an Extreme Heat Warning for Charleston and Tidal Berkeley where the chances for reaching 113 heat indices for at least hours is the highest. Isolated afternoon convection could provide some relief for a few areas, but a Major to Extreme heat risk persists across all of the Lowcountry and Southeast Georgia. Overnight, lows are only forecast to dip into the upper 70s/lower 80s. These warm overnight conditions could result in prolonged heat stress, especially for more vulnerable communities and those without adequate cooling overnight. For Saturday, things look a bit cooler overall as the subtropical ridge begins to flatten out yielding slightly cooler temperatures and a bit more in the way of shower/tstm activity. Heat indices are still expected to peak in the 105-110 range across the coastal corridor with 100-105 farther inland. Another Heat Advisory may be needed for these areas depending on how quickly convection sparks, but levels look to fall short of Extreme Heat Warning criteria. KEY MESSAGE 2: Typical summertime afternoon and evening thunderstorms this week with increasing rain chances Sunday through Tuesday. This afternoon and evening: Another typical summertime airmass is expected across southeast GA and southeast SC through this evening. Radar and satellite imagery do not show any obvious boundaries across the area, so convection will be highly dependent on surface heating for initiation and then boundary interactions thereafter. Surface winds are solidly westerly, which will work to keep the sea breeze pinned closer to the coast yet again. Modifying the KCHS 12z RAOB using 98/73 yields MLCAPE values well in excess of 2,000 J/kg along with impressive DCAPE well in excess of 1,000 J/kg. The environment should be uncapped and westerly flow through the column should favor a west or west-northwest storm motion in the 10-15 knot range. Hi- res model guidance isn't much help as soundings seem to show dewpoints mixing out a bit too much this afternoon, therefore there is little to no coverage in those solutions. But, the overall lack of any notable features should keep coverage isolated to scattered at most. There is a risk for locally heavy rainfall as an isolated storm capable of producing damaging wind gusts. Any ongoing or lingering convection should weaken and dissipate through the evening and the overnight should be dry. Friday and Saturday: This hot and humid pattern will persist across the region. However, forecast soundings indicate slightly less PW and some potential dewpoints to mix a bit lower. The forecast features 20-30% pops for parts of the Lowcountry with 20-50% pops for Saturday, highest over the Charleston Tri- County. Sunday through Tuesday: The GFS and ECMWF indicates that a H5 trough will ripple over the region and persist during early next week. At the sfc, a cold front is forecast to push south over the region, possibly becoming stationary. In addition, AIFS indicates that a broad sfc low may develop over the forecast area Sunday night, pushing off the coast Monday into Monday night. Forecast soundings indicate the PW will increase to 2 to 2.2" across the region. Synoptic scale forcing along with slight to moderate instability should yield much higher shower and thunderstorm coverage. These storms may potential produce pockets of excessive rainfall given the deep moisture and possible concentration of storm coverage near the coastal low. WPC has highlighted the region with a marginal risk on Sunday and Sunday night. The marginal risk could be expanded into Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The 18z TAF period begins with VFR conditions at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV. The main forecast issue concerns thunderstorm potential this afternoon, and as of now it appears the best chances will be near KSAV. We have introduced a TEMPO group at KSAV for TSRA from 19-21z, mainly for gusty winds and reduced visibility. Chances look lower at KCHS and KJZI, but can't be completely ruled out. Will handle any adjustments with amendments through the afternoon. The sea breeze is currently right around KJZI, but should clear by 18z. We have timed the sea breeze arrival into KCHS a bit later, between 21-22z. Overnight should be dry and west winds will pick back up after sunrise tomorrow. Extended Aviation Outlook: There will be a low end risk of thunderstorm impacts each afternoon and evening through Friday. Showers and thunderstorm coverage and risk of associated restrictions may increase Sunday through Tuesday. && .MARINE... Through tonight: It continues to look like the gradient will pinch a bit across the local waters through this evening, producing enhanced south to southwest flow. Wind speeds of 15-20 knots should be common, strongest across the Charleston County waters and along the Charleston County coast (and Charleston Harbor) where sustained speeds could reach 20 knots with gusts pushing 25 knots. A Small Craft Advisory could be needed in these areas through the evening. Winds should then gradually diminish through the late night hours while turning more west- southwest. However, speeds will remain elevated in the 15-20 knot range. Seas are expected to be in the 2-4 ft range, and up to 5 ft in portions of the Charleston County waters. Friday: Surges in the wake of the sea breeze may result in southwest winds to increase during the afternoon and continue into Friday night with a classic summer nocturnal surge. Wind gusts may peak around 25 kts, possibly requiring Small Craft Advisories. The short duration of the elevated winds should keep wave heights between 3 to 4 ft. Saturday into Tuesday: The pressure pattern should support south-southwest winds between 10 to 15 kts, with occasional gusts into the low 20 kts. Wave heights are forecast to favor 2 to 4 ft. Rip Currents: A moderate risk for rip currents will remain along the Charleston County through Friday and expand to include the entire southeast GA and southeast SC coast on Saturday. Conditions will feature 2-3 ft swell with wave periods up to 9 seconds. In addition, SSW winds will likely generate a moderate longshore current, possibly supporting rip currents near piers and jetties. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: July 10: KCHS: 100/1986 KCXM: 99/1986 KSAV: 102/1879 July 11: KCXM: 100/2001 July 12: KCXM: 97/1966 Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 9: KCHS: 80/1998 KCXM: 85/1998 KSAV: 80/1883 July 10: KCHS: 81/1986 KCXM: 82/1986 July 11: KCHS: 80/2016 KCXM: 82/2016 July 12: KCHS: 79/2020 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ099>101-114- 115-137-216-238-240. Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ217>219-239-241. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for GAZ217>219-239- 241. SC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ043>045-147. Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ148>152. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for SCZ044-045-148- 149-151. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for SCZ150- 152. MARINE...None. && $$  053 FXUS63 KOAX 091833 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 133 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A stretch of hot weather is expected this weekend into next week, with highs in the 90s and heat indices approaching 100 degrees. - Most days are looking dry through the next week, though we could see a few spotty showers and storms produce gusty winds Friday. Severe weather is unlikely. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Fairly quiet close to home early this afternoon with just some lingering cloud cover as a weak shortwave was passing through the area. Farther west, stronger shortwave energy was crossing the Rockies and interacting with a north-south oriented boundary to lead to shower and storm development. CAMs are generally in good agreement that these push east across NE overnight and into Friday morning, but mostly dissipate prior to reaching our forecast area. However, a few solutions indicate potential for a lingering MCV to move across northeast NE while the primary shortwave clips far southeast NE and southwest IA. Therefore, wouldn't completely count on a dry morning (10-30% chance of rain). In addition, guidance seems to hint at spotty afternoon storm development, likely along remnant outflow from any morning precip. Very little shear will be in place for storm organization, but dry low levels in model soundings indicate some potential for downbursts/gusty winds, with the 09.12Z HRRR notably showing some 40-45 mph gusts emanating from collapsing storms. Beyond those storm chances Friday, we're looking at a pretty dry next 7 days as upper level ridging starts to build in and amplify over the center of the CONUS. This will also lead to rising temperatures with highs generally gaining around 2-3 degrees each day into next week, with mid 80s for most on Friday, upper 80s to lower 90s Sunday, and widespread 90s by Tuesday. The "good" news is that trends are toward maybe slightly lower temperatures than previous forecasts and true gulf moisture/humidity looks to be held to our south. Therefore, dewpoints should stay fairly steady in the 60s, though being July in corn country, it'll still feel humid, as heat indices climb into the mid 90s to around 100. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Expect MVFR ceilings early in the period to scatter out with cloud bases generally rising through the afternoon and VFR conditions thereafter. Some guidance hints at some showers and isolated storms pushing toward the area 12-15Z Friday, but chances currently remain below 20%, highest at OFK and LNK, so did not include mention at this time. Otherwise, winds will be light and northerly to northeasterly through most of the period, though should become southeasterly at OFK toward 03Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...CA  941 FXUS64 KCRP 091832 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 132 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 131 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Medium rain chances Friday into the weekend, with isolated pockets of heavy rainfall and high rainfall accumulations - Moderate risk of heat-related impacts continue, with peak heat indices between 103-108 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 131 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A plume of moisture is moving into the area this afternoon. PWAT values are climbing toward 2 inches along the Middle Texas Coast and will continue to rise into Friday and Saturday. Most convection today has been confined to marine areas and think sea breeze will be relatively quiet today, though an isolated shower or storm can't be ruled out. Late tonight and through Friday morning is when we'll notice the increase in rain chances especially for the Coastal Plains, with sea breeze aided convection farther west in the afternoon. With a mid-level disturbance in the area should be able to realize a 50-60 PoP for the daytime Friday for most of the area. While area average rainfall will likely be under an inch, the high level of deep moisture would support isolated higher amounts, possibly in the area of 2-3 inches. We have dried out pretty well from the rains last month, so flooding concerns are minimal. Rain chances continue into Saturday, but with loss of mid-level support and a building ridge, coverage is expected to be lower. By Sunday into early next week a very anomalous ridge (nearly 600 dam!) will set up over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest with a number of easterly convectively-enhanced disturbances pivoting westward towards Texas along its southern periphery. These disturbances will likely track along an 850-700mb boundary/convergence zone, creating a zone of active weather Monday through the middle of next week somewhere along the western Gulf. Guidance is not in good agreement on whether this boundary sets up north of the area or over portions of the area so will leave scattered PoPs for now, but it is something to watch as somewhere in the TX/Western LA range will likely see heavy rainfall and training of storms. Temperatures will remain near normal through the period, with some increase in heat indices heading into the weekend as dewpoints creep up with the moisture surge. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 131 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Minimal convection expected during the day with the sea breeze today, so have not mentioned in any TAF site at this time. VCT terminal though will have a low chance. Moisture increases into the area tonight and rain chances increase for the daytime tomorrow. Have mentioned VCSH for now for eastern sites, but will likely add TS mention in with later TAF packages when timing becomes more clear. Weak to moderate southeasterly wind and mainly VFR conditions are expected outside of showers/storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 131 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Mainly moderate south-southeasterly winds (BF 3-4) will persist through much of the period with somewhat lighter winds in the mornings next week. Some isolated storms can be expected today with scattered storms expected tonight through Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 78 90 80 91 / 20 50 20 30 Victoria 77 93 78 94 / 10 50 20 40 Laredo 77 96 78 98 / 10 20 10 30 Alice 75 92 77 93 / 10 60 20 40 Rockport 81 91 83 91 / 40 70 30 40 Cotulla 76 94 77 96 / 10 30 20 40 Kingsville 76 90 78 91 / 20 60 20 30 Navy Corpus 81 89 83 90 / 30 60 30 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PH/83 AVIATION...PH/83  340 FXUS65 KCYS 091837 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1237 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon with heavy rainfall, hail, and strong gusty winds possible. - Strong ridging aloft will produce a dry and hot period for Saturday through Thursday, with the primary challenges being the above normal heat and fire weather conditions. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1230 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Scattered rainfall and some thunderstorms are beginning to form across the region this afternoon. Similar to yesterday, expecting storms to continue forming across the high terrain and move eastwards through the afternoon and early evening into a more favorable environment for stronger activity. Profiles look similar to yesterday as well, with high based storms from inverted V soundings promoting strong winds and accumulating small hail to some smaller severe hail sizes possible. Meanwhile we'll see another risk of flooding today as PWAT values continue to sit in the 0.9-1.25 inch range, generally around 100-130% of average. With storms expected to train across the I-80 corridor, look for the highest risk of flooding from Cheyenne eastwards through Sidney. High resolution guidance consolidates this activity into clustered to linear activity as it moves eastwards into the Nebraska Panhandle, keeping high winds the primary threat into the late afternoon, with storms beginning to exit our portion of Nebraska during the beginning of the evening hours. Our severe threat should then diminish by the time the sun sets, though some lingering showers or storms may be possible through around midnight. Into Friday, our focus begins to shift towards heat as ridging starts building over the region. While the warmth won't begin to scorch us quite yet, high temperatures should rise around 1-5 degrees with highs in the 80's to 90's for the day. Some lingering moisture will keep our PWAT values around normal, and a weak trough and upslope flow may be able to take advantage of what's left of the moisture to produce an isolated shower or storm across the southern Laramie Range and along the border into Colorado, but activity should be weak and sporadic at best. By the evening, anything that is able to form will dissipate, the last grasp of notable moisture potential as heat and fire weather become the focal point into the long term. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1230 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Saturday through Thursday...Primary challenges will be the heat and fire weather conditions. Ridging aloft dominates our region, with quite dry air at low and mid levels, accompanied by warm 700 mb temperatures, thus chances for late day showers and thunderstorms will be nearly nil and non existent, and dry weather will prevail. The 700 mb temperatures will yield maximum temperatures in the 90 to 105 degree range. A weak perturbation and a slight increase in mid level moisture may spark isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday, and moreso on Thursday, although the ridging aloft will likely keep it dry for the entire period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1118 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Storm activity will begin increasing across the region over the next couple of hours. Any storms could produce MVFR or worse conditions and gusty, variable winds, all sites except KRWL where only weak activity is expected. Cloud banks this afternoon will generally be around 10K feet at BKN, with lowered CIGs under any storm activity. After storms move out later this evening, expect CIGs to begin lifting and clearing, with clear skies into tomorrow morning. Winds are messy thanks to shifting boundaries across the region and the expected storm activity, but look for prevailing winds to generally be around 10-20 knots, variable across our entire forecast area, becoming light and variable overnight into tomorrow morning as strong pressure gradients exit the region. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CG LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...CG  553 FXUS62 KTBW 091841 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 241 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Near record high temperatures with high heat index values through Friday. - Drier air moving into the area will limit rain chances through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The continued advancement of the Saharan Air Layer into Florida will keep the peninsula dry and hot today. Heat advisories are in effect for our region, with heat index values of up to 110 expected in some areas through this afternoon. There will be little to no relief for this heat, as the SAL will keep moisture relatively low and precipitation chances slim, although an isolated shower or storm is still possible. The heat associated with this dry spell will reach near-record levels. As the Saharan dust moves out temporarily tomorrow and into Saturday, we can expect to see a slight return to our normal summer pattern. Tomorrow afternoon, slightly higher PoPs will reach into SWFL, bringing some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Storms that do develop a chance of strong, damaging winds. SPC has placed a large area of the CWA in a marginal risk (1 of 5) for severe storms. Saturday, higher PoPs and scattered thunderstorms return to much of our area, primarily south of the I-4 corridor. Beginning Sunday and into next week, a trough will set over northern Florida, which will keep the highest levels of moisture and precipitation north of the I-4 corridor. Areas south of I-4 will see continued heat index values exceeding 100, as cloud cover and precipitation may be limited. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 233 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions prevail. Winds become light and variable overnight. Isolated showers and storms possible tomorrow afternoon, though confidence at this time remains low. && .MARINE... Issued at 233 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Mostly pleasant marine conditions continue today and tomorrow. Shower and storms chances increase slightly tomorrow especially over SWFL. Winds and seas likely to increase in the vicinity of any storms developing. Winds remain light through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 233 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The Saharan dust over the area will continue to keep the mid levels dry today, which will limit shower activity. However RH values remain above critical areawide. Shower and storm activity likely to increase tomorrow and Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 81 96 80 94 / 10 40 30 50 FMY 78 96 77 95 / 10 70 30 60 GIF 76 96 76 96 / 10 20 20 70 SRQ 79 95 78 94 / 10 40 20 50 BKV 75 98 75 96 / 10 30 20 50 SPG 81 95 80 94 / 10 40 20 50 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 7 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco- Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte- Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota- Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Branney AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle/Wynn  489 FXUS63 KIND 091838 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 238 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms possible, mainly this evening into tonight, with damaging winds and heavy rain/localized flooding the primary threats - Additional rain possible at times Friday through the weekend with localized flooding possible - Warmer and drier again next week, though with more modest humidity than experienced the first week of the month && .DISCUSSION (This evening through Thursday)... Issued at 238 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Satellite imagery depicts a well defined MCV near St. Louis progressing eastward. This will likely be the main source of lift this afternoon and evening, with an MCS likely developing over south central IL after 4PM. Model guidance is still widely varied on specific placement of this MCS, but given MCV and LLJ placement, the current expectation is for this MCS to move through far SW portions of central Indiana between 7-11PM this evening. Sounding analysis shows a quasi-inverted "V" sounding in the lowers 1km of which is allowing for 1000+ J/kg of DCAPE. This should allow for micro-scale bowing segments along the cold pool, with a damaging wind gust threat during this same time period. Within any organized segments, a weak tornadic spin up is possible but given LCL height and weak boundary layer shear, this threat should remain very isolated. The next threat tonight will reside with the potential for a remnant boundary to develop following the passage of the MCV. This boundary coupled with a consistent 30-40kt LLJ could lead to training convection south of a Bloomington to Columbus line between 02-08Z overnight. If this does occur pockets of 2-4" over a 6 hour period will be possible, with localized flooding threat. As the LLJ weakens tomorrow morning, convection will eventually dissipate, with most areas becoming dry by 10Z. Friday through Saturday: Another upper level wave will move slowly through the region Friday into Saturday with a weak surface boundary expected to pass from north to south through central Indiana during the afternoon and evening. Models are starting to come to a better agreement on timing, with convection likely to occur between 4PM and 10PM from north to south across the region. Shear will be rather weak this time around, and therefor the severe risk is low for Friday. That said, there is enough destabilization through a deep saturated column for an isolated wet microburst to be possible. A quick inch is possible over a 30min period with these storms as well, but the movement on these cells should be fast enough to limit the flood threat for the afternoon and evening hours. Late tomorrow evening, this boundary is expected to stall near or south of central Indiana, with another nocturnal LLJ expected to form. If this boundary stays within central Indiana, there is some potential for an additional flooding concern Friday night, but confidence is low on this occurring at this time. Sunday through Next Week: The strong upper ridging centered over the Rockies during the second half of the weekend will shift east into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys for much of next week bringing a return to a warmer and drier pattern for central Indiana. Highs will return to the upper 80s and lower 90s through the middle of next week. Unlike the recent high heat in late June and the first few days of July...temperatures and dewpoints should be lower through the period which will keep heat indices largely manageable from a heat stress standpoint... peaking in the mid and upper 90s. A few lingering storms are possible Sunday over southern counties as an upper trough axis shifts away to the south The presence of a strong mid level cap will largely mitigate convective risks from late Sunday through Tuesday. By Wednesday and Thursday...mid level temperatures will fall weakening the cap with a greater opportunity for isolated convection focused largely during the afternoon and evening. A more pronounced threat for thunderstorms will come late week into next weekend as the ridge suppresses and a cold front sags south from the Great Lakes. In the wake of this frontal passage...a cooler airmass will expand into the region. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 135 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Impacts: - Showers and storms possible at all sites this evening into the overnight Discussion: VFR conditions will remain throughout the afternoon into the evening. After 22Z, a MCV will push into Indiana with a broken line of thunderstorms expected at KHUF and KBMG through 02Z. A remnant boundary behind this MCV coupled with a LLJ will likely lead to additional thunderstorms between 02-08Z overnight. Greatest threat will be at KBMG, but all sites could see a thunderstorm. MVFR ceilings could be possible tomorrow morning, but confidence is low. Winds will be light out of the southwest(200-230 degrees) during the day, becoming variable after 00Z as the MCV pushes through. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ AVIATION...Updike DISCUSSION...Ryan/Updike  615 FXUS64 KFWD 091842 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 142 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, UPDATE LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and dry conditions will persist through Friday with heat index values near 105 degrees. - Rain and storm chances return to the region late Saturday through Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 127 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The heat will continue to be the main story of the short-term period as an upper level ridge expands across our region. As of 1 pm, temperatures are sitting in the low to mid 90s and will continue to climb to the upper 90s to near 100 degrees across the region. Daytime mixing and the breezy conditions should help keep the heat index values generally near or below 105 degrees, with the exception of some locations across the northeast where good moisture remains present. Any seabreeze convection this afternoon will stay mainly along the TX Coast, far from our area. Another typical hot summer day is in store for us on Friday as the ridge remains in control. Sunny skies will prevail with highs ranging from the mid 90s in Central TX to upper 90s/near 100 degrees in North Texas. While we could see some isolated showers or storms across the Brazos Valley region, most of this activity should remain south and east of our area. Sanchez && .UPDATE... Issued at 127 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The long-term portion of the forecast remains in good shape as we continue to focus on the return of storm chances late this weekend into early next week. Recent guidance is trending towards better coverage of showers and storms Sunday into Monday, especially across North Texas as the front pushes south into our area. If the front slows down and remains over North Texas on Tuesday, rain chances will likely increase over the next few days. Outside of this, our thinking on impacts remain the same. More details below. Sanchez && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 155 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Hot and dry weather will continue Friday and Saturday as mid level ridging expands but changes will be on the way for the latter half of the weekend into early next week. Until then, high temperatures at or just above 100 degrees will continue with heat index values near 105. Ridging will expand and shift westward over the Intermountain West by late Saturday which will allow troughing to dig through the Central and Southern Plains by Saturday night. A weak frontal boundary will also slide southward into the Plains during this time and should serve as a focus for convective development mainly to our north. In addition, we may see an uptick in sea breeze convection to our southeast which may spread into our far southeast counties late Saturday afternoon/evening. With weak synoptic forcing for ascent spreading through the Southern Plains late Saturday night, ongoing convection to our north should spread south toward the Red River during the late overnight hours into early Sunday. It's a little uncertain how much activity will be ongoing during this time, but the weak frontal boundary should sag south toward the I-20 corridor during the day Sunday. Moisture pooling along this boundary and continued weak ascent atop an unstable boundary layer should result in a quick uptick in convection during the day Sunday across much of North Texas where we'll have 30-60% PoPs. A moisture rich atmosphere featuring fairly weak low and mid level flow should favor slow moving thunderstorms with potential for locally heavy rainfall. Given the broad but continued synoptic ascent through the overnight hours with little capping, convection may persist well into the nighttime hours Sunday night beyond the normal summertime diurnal convective cycle. The weak frontal boundary and mid level trough will continue to sag farther south on Monday with rain chances continuing primarily along and south of I-20 where we'll continue with 40-60% PoPs. As we get into the middle part of the week, the mid level ridging to the north will expand a bit farther south and should push the bulk of the rain/storm chances well into Central TX. We'll continue with some 20-30% PoPs Tuesday into Wednesday mainly south of I-20. While the threat for severe weather appears to be pretty low during this time, we will have to monitor for some potential heavy rainfall given a setup favoring persistent moisture transport into North and Central TX and persistent synoptic forcing for ascent. In an uncapped and unstable environment, we can often see bands of training rainfall set up with little advance notice of location. That being said, the Sunday-Tuesday timeframe will feature some of the higher rain chances that we've seen in a while along with slightly cooler temperatures given the increased cloud cover. Things will wind down toward the middle and latter part of next week with temperatures climbing back above seasonal normals. Dunn && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 127 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Quiet weather conditions will persist through Friday afternoon. Expect SKC to continue along with breezy south-southwest winds around 15kts and occasional gusts near 20 kts. Sanchez && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 100 81 99 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 77 96 77 95 / 0 0 0 10 Paris 78 96 78 95 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 81 100 80 99 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 81 100 80 98 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 81 100 81 99 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 79 98 78 97 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 77 98 78 97 / 0 0 0 10 Temple 76 95 76 95 / 0 10 0 20 Mineral Wells 77 99 76 97 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$  606 FXUS66 KLOX 091842 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1142 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS...09/310 AM. Moderate heat impacts will continue through Friday away from the coast in response to a strong ridge of high pressure over the region. Temperatures will decrease slightly over the weekend as the ridge moves away from the region, but some heat impacts will continue. Monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will be possible starting Sunday. Temperatures will begin to build once again on Tuesday, potentially reaching Major Heat Risk levels, with the monsoonal moisture adding to the discomfort from the heat. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...09/1025 AM. ***UPDATE*** Clouds will clear from the beaches today by the afternoon and other areas are currently under full sunshine. Temperatures are on track to be the warmest of the next couple days, with highs around 5 to 10 above normal (78-88 near the beaches, 90-100 for most valleys, and 100-110 for the warmest valleys and the deserts. ***From Previous Discussion*** An upper level 595 dam high is situated just to the SW of LA. It will remain stationary for through Friday morning and then begin to slowly drift to the ENE. Hgts over Srn CA during the 3 day period will be between 594 and 595 dam, which is 3 to 4 dam higher than normal for this time of year. This morning there will be about 2mb of onshore flow to the east and about 2mb of offshore flow from the north. Onshore trends over the next three days will result in mdt to stg onshore flow both to the east and north by Saturday. There will only be minimal low clouds this morning concentrated across the Central Coast, the Paso Robles area and the KLGB-KLAX cstl area. The increase in onshore flow will bring more low clouds to the csts Friday morning. The stronger onshore flow will bring plenty of low clouds to the csts on Saturday morning and locally into the lower vlys. Skies Saturday will be partly cloudy after the low clouds dissipate as mid and high level clouds rotate into the area around the upper high. High temperatures continue to be the main concern through the forecast period. Today will be the warmest day with the above normal hgts and the weakest onshore flow. Most max temps will be about a degree warmer than ydy's very warm readings. The exception today will be the Central Coast which due to the weaker onshore flow will see 4 to 8 degrees of warming. Vly temps today will range from 88 to 102 degrees or 4 to 8 degrees above normal. The increasing marine layer and onshore flow will bring some cooling to the csts and vlys each day Fri and Sat while the mtns and interior will see little change. Heat advisories continue over many areas (humidities will be on rise and this increase will mitigate the cooler temps) please see the product LAXNPWLOX for details. Advisory level Sundowner winds are once again likely this evening for Southwest Santa Barbara County. Elevated fire weather conditions will continue for this area as well. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...09/310 AM. The upper high will continue to drift to the NE and will end up over South Dakota by Monday where it will stay through most of next week. Srn CA will end up on the western periphery of the high and SE flow will set up and persist over the area. Hgts will not change much day to day and will be near 593 dam. At the sfc there will be gradual weakening of the onshore flow will the possibility of offshore flow developing from the north Tuesday or more likely Wednesday. The SE flow will bring monsoon moisture into the area with partly to mostly cloudy skies due to mid and high level clouds likely Sunday and Monday. There will also be enough onshore flow to bring low clouds to the csts and lower vlys each morning. PWAT quickly increase overnight Saturday and persist into Monday. The moisture will be low enough to bring a 10-20 percent chc of showers and isold TSTMs to VTA and LA counties. The best chc each day will be in the afternoons and early evenings over the mtns esp the eastern LA mtns. The increase in humidities will keep the heat index high enough to continue the low end heat advisories for most areas away from the csts. The monsoon will likely cut off on Tuesday and skies will be much clearer for Tue and Wed. The amount of marine layer clouds will shrink as the offshore trends take affect. The copious sunshine and weaker onshore flow will add up to two days of warming. The current forecast call for 3 to 6 degrees on Tue and 1 to 3 degrees on Wed. If, however, the offshore develops as some ensemble members indicate then max temps would end up much higher and an extreme heat watch is in effect to cover this possibility which stands at about 30 percent right now. && .AVIATION...09/1719Z. At 1643Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1100 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 66000 ft deep with a temperature of 25 C. High confidence in TAFs for KSBA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF. Fair confidence in TAFs for KSBP and KSMX with a 30 percent chc of VLIFR conds 10Z-15Z. VFR conds could occur +/- 1 hour from fcst. Good confidence in TAFs for KOXR and KCMA with a 15 percent chc of IFR cigs 13Z-16Z for KOXR. Moderate confidence in TAFs for KSMO, KLGB and KLAX. VFR transition could be off by +/- 90 minutes and cigs off by 300 ft. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chc of no cigs. Moderate confidence that MVFR/IFR conds will arrive between 0600Z and 0800Z. Good confidence that any east wind component will be AOB 6kt. KBUR...High confidence in TAF. && .MARINE...09/314 AM. For the outer waters, current Gale Warnings look on track ending Thursday morning. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds will follow, lasting through at least Friday morning. Large 10-12 ft seas will subside Friday, but current SCA may need to be extended into Friday night due to winds and seas. SCA level NW-W winds, with local gusts near gale force are expected for the inner waters along the Central Coast until Thursday morning. There is a 40% chance of Gales across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast and the Santa Barbara Channel through Thursday morning. Local SCA level wind gusts are also possible for far western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel through Thursday morning. For the inner waters south of Point Conception, conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels. && .BEACHES...09/1019 AM. A south to southwest swell will continue to affect the coastal waters through next week. With the swell, the potential for larger surf and greater risk for rip currents will continue. High tides are expected to increase this weekend going into next week with Monday expected to be the highest tide of 7.0 to 7.6 ft above MLLW. There is the potential for some minor coastal flooding next week with the high tides and south swell. One thing that will need to be watched into next week will be the potential of a greater south to southwest swell from potential tropical development. Thunderstorms are also possible starting Sunday and going through next week with a 10-20% chance. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 38-88-343>345-353-368-372-373-375>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through Thursday evening for zones 38-88-341>345-347>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Friday for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke/Schoenfeld AVIATION...SF MARINE...Phillips BEACHES...SF SYNOPSIS...RM/KL/SR weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  696 FXUS64 KEWX 091844 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 144 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 143 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Hottest day of the week Thursday, and heat index values will continue topping out in the 100 to 105 degree range each day through early next week. - Ambient temperatures ease off Friday into next week as daily rain chances return. - Strong wind gusts and locally heavy downpours will be possible Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 143 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 One more "hotter" day is expected with temperatures a few ticks above normal for early to mid-July as weak mid-level ridging remains intact this afternoon. A plume of SAL dust is noted on satellite imagery, but it is a bit more subtle than recent SAL events. Nevertheless, this will locally enhance ambient air temperatures this afternoon, with highs in the mid to upper 90s to around 100 along the I-35 Corridor. Yesterday, ATT hit 100 for the first time this year, and SAT and AUS could do the same today. This plume of dust doesn't hang around long as a disturbance over the southwestern Gulf gets funneled northward into South Central Texas on Friday. Moist southeasterly flow from the surface to a bit over 700mb. Long, skinny forecast soundings along with PWATs climbing above 2" on Friday suggest tropical downpours are an increasingly good bet. Additional cloud cover will result in cooler temperatures Friday, but highs still climb into the lower 90s for most. Storms will develop along the middle Texas coast and move inland late Friday morning, bringing with them gusty winds and heavy tropical downpours. Coverage is expected to be isolated to scattered at best, but any relief from the afternoon heat will be welcome. A quick couple inches of rain is possible with any storms as motions will be slow. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 143 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The weekend will feature continued active weather for South Central Texas, with subtropical ridging sliding northward out of the western CONUS and into the Northern Plains states. As this ridge migrates north and eastward, it'll open the door for easterly low to mid- level flow over Texas and the southeastern US. With higher PWATs and continued southeasterly flow at the surface, daily rain and storm chances will occur Saturday through Wednesday, with Monday and Tuesday looking like the wettest days of the next week. An increasing concern for flooding rains develops on those two days as more concentrated coverage of storms and slow movement will prompt flooding concerns. Initially, any rainfall should soak into area soils as things have been dry for several weeks since our last widespread rains the 3rd week of June. However, runoff would probably follow soon after the first 1-2" of rainfall within any particular storm. By midweek, the NASA Dust AOT indicates a rather impressive plume of dust may work into South Central Texas on Wednesday, limiting rain chances Thursday and beyond. The GFS and ECMWF start to differ on their handling of the subtropical ridge over the Northern Plains and how it evolves by the middle of next week. This results in low confidence heading through the middle to end of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions are forecast for the local area terminals through Friday night. Breezy southerly winds with gusts ranging from 20 to 25 knots are anticipated for the rest of this afternoon through late evening. Wind flow relaxes overnight through Friday morning and pick up again late Friday morning into the afternoon period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 76 95 77 95 / 0 10 10 40 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 94 77 94 / 0 20 10 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 94 75 94 / 0 30 30 50 Burnet Muni Airport 73 93 74 93 / 0 10 10 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 76 95 76 95 / 0 0 20 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 75 95 76 94 / 0 10 10 30 Hondo Muni Airport 74 91 75 91 / 0 30 40 40 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 94 76 94 / 0 30 20 50 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 94 77 95 / 0 30 10 50 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 92 76 92 / 0 40 30 50 Stinson Muni Airport 76 92 76 92 / 0 40 30 50 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MMM LONG TERM....MMM AVIATION...17  693 FXUS65 KPIH 091844 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1244 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat expected through the weekend with many locations nearing or reaching 100 degrees Saturday and Sunday. - Drier weather returns today through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Cool front/dry line arrives today. Still debatable if enough dry air works into the region before convection fires off. The NAM, GFS and HREF keeps things pretty dry, but the HRRR continues to fire off showers and thunderstorms around Arco and propagates them east to near IF and Rexburg by 00z. Decided to add a slight chance for storms in that area, but its likely that if we see anything it will probably be just virga. With that said, we could still see some descent wind gusts from the virga showers if they develop. Dry weather is likely into early next week. Hot conditions arrive over the weekend. Heat risk values are strongly pinging some form of heat products across much of our central and east Idaho and have been consistently doing so. Temps in the upper 90s to around 100 looks very likely for many of our communities. These temperatures will flirt with daily records at many sites. Given the consistency that we've been seeing will roll with a heat watch for Saturday and Sunday. Looks breezy as well over the weekend with wind gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range for many. This hot weather looks like it will continue into Monday, perhaps backing off some on Tuesday. Could see the heat products extending into early next week, but with less confidence at this time. Potential monsoon flow from the south looks to arrive for Wednesday and beyond bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms, added cloud cover, and somewhat lower temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1109 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Widespread VFR with mainly clear skies through Friday with only some few to sct mid level clouds. Winds generally under 10 knots other than some afternoon 10 knots or so at PIH and IDA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1224 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Isolated showers and thunderstorms still possible today and Friday afternoon, but coverage and intensity should be much lower than previous afternoons as moisture continues to wane. Any brief shower or thunderstorm could still produce gusty and erratic winds, but this will be more of an exception than the rule. The ridge of high pressure advertised for several days will establish over the next 24 hours or so, bringing much warmer temperatures to the area and drier conditions overall. We'll see temperature climb from near or slightly above average today to 10-15 degrees above average by Saturday and Sunday. RH values will drop to values firmly in the low teen to single digits each afternoon. Overnight lows will be much warmer than usual as well, limiting overnight recovery over the weekend. Winds will generally be light today and Friday, but begin to increase Saturday and Sunday. These will be the next critical fire weather days as fuels continue to dry out and cure from any recent rain they may have received. The ridge generally sticks around into early next week, but we begin to see monsoonal moisture wrap around the western edge of the high, bringing precipitable water values back up leading to better coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but also limiting RH minimums. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 9 PM MDT Sunday for IDZ051>055-060>068-070-075. Extreme Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 9 PM MDT Sunday for IDZ056>059. && $$ DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...GK FIRE WEATHER...TAX  835 FXUS65 KABQ 091847 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1247 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1244 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - A low to moderate risk of flash flooding exists on area burn scars each day from daily afternoon thunderstorms. - A low risk of severe storms exists today and Friday across far northeast NM, mainly in Union County. - Highs in the 90s to low 100s result in a moderate to locally major heat risk across lower elevations, especially for those sensitive to heat, and without adequate cooling or hydration. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1244 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The 595dm H5 high remains centered west of the region over and just offshore SoCAL and the northern Baja Peninsula. Thus a similar setup for afternoon thunderstorms remains across the Land of Enchantment with little change from yesterday's observations. Afternoon convection favoring development over the southwestern, south- central, and Sangre de Cristo Mts will be the rule. Storms moving E/SE off the Sangre de Cristo's will have a marginal risk of becoming strong/severe, tapping into higher bulk shear capable of some single-cellular organization early on mostly over Colfax and Union Counties. Some of these cells will look to congeal over east- central NM by the I-40 corridor late day and evening, continuing to their demise somewhere over east-central NM generally between Clovis, Fort Sumner, and Roswell late this evening. Slow moving storms over the south-central mountains near Ruidoso will have some chance to produce locally heavy rainfall early this afternoon, but should be relatively short-lived. Storms over the Gila NF and further up along the Continental Divide will be mostly dry in nature threatening strong erratic gusts and dry lightning. However, even the stronger storms will be capable of producing brief locally heavy rain at times as has been observed in some spots of Catron and Socorro Counties the past few days. Drier westerlies will push further into the northwestern quadrant of NM today, and furthermore Friday as the H5 remains fairly flat. This will continue to shut down precipitation chances for the most part over the portion of the state. Areas of the upper to middle Rio Grande from Taos to Los Alamos to Santa Fe to ABQ, will be in that transition zone where some meager showers or isolated thunderstorm will be capable of producing a few spits of rain and mostly erratic gusty winds between 3p - 8p. Heat will be the main story there where highs are forecast to climb into the upper 90s to low 100s. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Northwest Plateau (Farmington) today, and will be issued again for Friday. Highs in the low 100s elsewhere in the middle to lower Rio Grande Valley from ABQ to Socorro will warrant an expansion of Heat Advisories there as well where Moderate to Major Heat Risk is forecast to exist. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1244 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Saturday begins the long term period with the H5 coalescing and gathering strength over the Four Corners region. This will continue the moderate to major heat risk mainly along and west of the Rio Grande Valley where highs will again climb into the low 100s for lower elevation areas. Afternoon thunderstorms will again favor the same areas for development along the eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mts, and southwestern mountains in the Gila NF. Storms moving off the Sangre de Cristo's will again drift S/SE over the eastern plains with less bulk shear to work with in order to organize. However, convective strengths could still allow for a short-duration pulse severe here and there. Storms near the Ruidoso area will be slower movers, favoring a S/SW direction, capable of locally heavy rainfall. The H5 high builds to 599-600dm Sunday into Monday as it tours WY and the northern Great Plains, with it's associated H5 heights reaching near record to record heights in the portion of the CONUS. Thankfully for New Mexico, this means lowering pressure heights locally and an influx of heightened monsoonal moisture from the Gulf via TX. Highs fall back into the 80s and 90s most areas. While available moisture increases, highlighted by an uptick in PWATs to near 1.00" early next week, the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms at this time does not favor a significant uptick. With the H5 to the north and northeast, scattered storms that do form will favor a westward motion likely developing along the central, northern, and western mountains. Rain efficiency of these storms should increase, with less potential for any virga and dry thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1103 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Today's afternoon thunderstorms will favor development over the Sangre de Cristo's moving E/SE, slow-moving off the Sacramento Mts and southwestern mountains. Localized MVFR with gusty and erratic winds, lightning, and rainfall will accompany any of these cells. Drier air will push in and shut down thunderstorm chances for the most part in northwestern NM, including KFMN and KGUP, although a few light virga showers are likely to be around KGUP. Gusty and erratic winds are more likely to push into KSAF-KABQ- KAEG again late this afternoon and early evening. Thunderstorms moving E off the Sangre de Cristo's will have chance to become strong to severe b/w KRTN and KCAO, with a batch of modest showers and thunderstorms trying to make it all the way to KROW and KCVN by the late evening. Conditions calm and clear out overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1244 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Fire weather concerns will be limited to the very low humidity and poor to fair recoveries over western NM, coupled with intense heat. The heat subsides with increasing moisture and humidity arriving next week. Afternoon thunderstorms today and Friday will continue to favor areas along the central mountain chain and southwestern mountains, with cells off the Sangre de Cristo's moving S/SE. Storm motions will be more S/SW Saturday, then becoming more westerly next week as the main dome of high pressure migrates over WY and the northern Great Plains. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 62 99 61 101 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 48 94 48 98 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 59 93 59 94 / 0 0 0 5 Gallup.......................... 58 95 55 96 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 59 91 58 93 / 5 0 0 5 Grants.......................... 58 95 57 96 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 60 92 60 93 / 5 0 0 5 Magdalena....................... 65 93 66 92 / 10 20 10 0 Datil........................... 61 90 62 89 / 10 10 5 5 Reserve......................... 55 96 56 97 / 10 40 20 10 Glenwood........................ 59 99 60 101 / 20 40 10 40 Chama........................... 49 88 49 89 / 0 0 0 5 Los Alamos...................... 65 92 66 91 / 0 5 0 5 Pecos........................... 58 92 59 90 / 0 10 10 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 56 88 56 89 / 0 0 5 20 Red River....................... 49 79 48 79 / 0 5 5 30 Angel Fire...................... 36 83 37 83 / 0 5 5 50 Taos............................ 53 92 54 92 / 0 0 0 10 Mora............................ 54 87 55 86 / 0 20 20 60Espanola........................ 61 97 62 99 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 64 93 65 92 / 5 5 5 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 61 96 62 95 / 5 0 0 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 70 98 71 99 / 5 0 10 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 67 100 67 99 / 5 0 5 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 65 102 67 102 / 5 0 5 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 100 69 100 / 5 0 5 0 Belen........................... 65 102 66 101 / 10 0 5 5 Bernalillo...................... 67 101 68 101 / 5 0 5 5 Bosque Farms.................... 64 102 65 101 / 5 0 5 10 Corrales........................ 67 101 68 102 / 5 0 5 5 Los Lunas....................... 65 102 66 101 / 5 0 5 5 Placitas........................ 68 98 69 97 / 5 0 5 20 Rio Rancho...................... 67 100 68 101 / 5 0 5 5 Socorro......................... 71 103 72 103 / 10 10 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 64 93 64 93 / 5 10 10 40 Tijeras......................... 63 95 64 94 / 5 5 10 40 Edgewood........................ 60 96 60 94 / 5 5 5 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 56 97 57 95 / 5 5 5 40 Clines Corners.................. 58 91 58 89 / 10 10 10 40 Mountainair..................... 61 95 61 94 / 10 10 5 40 Gran Quivira.................... 63 94 63 92 / 20 10 10 50 Carrizozo....................... 68 96 68 95 / 20 10 10 50 Ruidoso......................... 63 86 62 86 / 20 40 10 60 Capulin......................... 53 85 53 86 / 20 50 40 50 Raton........................... 53 91 53 90 / 10 40 30 60 Springer........................ 55 93 55 92 / 5 30 30 50 Las Vegas....................... 56 90 57 88 / 5 20 20 50 Clayton......................... 61 92 61 93 / 30 50 50 20 Roy............................. 59 90 59 89 / 10 20 40 40 Conchas......................... 66 100 65 98 / 20 20 40 30 Santa Rosa...................... 64 98 64 93 / 20 5 20 20 Tucumcari....................... 69 101 67 98 / 30 5 50 10 Clovis.......................... 68 98 67 97 / 20 0 30 5 Portales........................ 70 99 69 98 / 20 0 30 0 Fort Sumner..................... 70 100 69 97 / 20 0 20 5 Roswell......................... 72 103 72 99 / 20 0 10 0 Picacho......................... 66 96 66 94 / 20 20 10 5 Elk............................. 64 92 63 92 / 10 40 10 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for NMZ201-219-220. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24  874 FXUS61 KBOX 091848 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 248 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No changes to the forecast for this update cycle. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid weather will continue through Friday, with a low risk of showers and thunderstorms. - Dry and seasonable weather with low humidity levels this weekend into Monday, but turns hot and humid by midweek. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm and humid weather will continue through Friday, with a low risk of showers and thunderstorms. Regional radar shows showers and thunderstorms across eastern PA to Long Island, with a few showers in southern New England. The region is situated between a frontal boundary across the eastern Great Lakes to northern New England and deep moisture across the Mid-Atlantic region. Drier air has limited coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area. The best chance of additional showers and thunderstorms is west of I-95 through the evening hours. The frontal boundary will slowly sag into the region Friday while moisture increases across the region. Cloud cover and patchy fog are expected to increase in coverage tonight. As the boundary lies across the forecast area, a weak shortwave trough will approach the area Friday. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase through peak heating hours, however the risk remains low. Any fog and low clouds will erode early in the morning with low clouds persisting the longest along the southern coast. There will be a low risk of showers Friday night. KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry and seasonable weather with low humidity levels this weekend into Monday, but turns hot and humid by midweek. After Friday evening's cold frontal passage into the southern waters, high pressure from Canada builds southward with cyclonic flow aloft. This will bring a cooldown toward more seasonable summer temperatures in the mid 70s to low to mid 80s, with low humidity levels and dry weather Saturday through Monday. Other than some cooler seabreezes near the eastern coast, it's otherwise shaping up to be a great weekend. By Tuesday and especially Wednesday, temperatures become quite hot as 850 mb temps soar again into the +18 to +22C range. These values are similar (somewhat cooler by comparison) to our last extended spell of high heat/humidity. The potential could exist for temperatures in the 90s with high humidity levels perhaps necessitating a period of heat headlines for midweek. The risk for thunderstorms looks limited, with a better chance on Wednesday as NW flow aloft increases and a plume of elevated mid-level lapse rates builds in favoring stronger instability. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Friday Night...Moderate Confidence. A cumulus field continues to grow across the higher terrain this afternoon. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible, mainly west of KBED/KPVD through this evening. VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Ceilings are expected to lower with areas of MVFR advancing northward across CT/RI/southern MA. Confidence is low to moderate if lower ceilings will reach KBED and KBOS after 9z Friday. Low ceilings/vsbys are expected to persist across the southern coast through Friday morning. Flight conditions are expected to improve to VFR by afternoon. Elsewhere, VFR expected Friday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, with a higher risk by the southern coast. KBOS Terminal...Moderate to high confidence. KBDL Terminal...Moderate to high confidence. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night through Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Friday Night...High confidence. Mostly tranquil boating conditions this evening. A weak front approaches the waters from the NW Friday, but is not likely to pass the southern coastal waters until late Friday night at the earliest. A risk for scattered showers or thunderstorms tonight across the southern waters. Some risk for more afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms Friday. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Sunday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Loconto/Guest AVIATION...Loconto/Guest MARINE...Belk/Loconto  913 FXUS63 KJKL 091849 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 249 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms continue at times into the weekend. - Heavy rainfall is possible through the first half of this weekend, especially Friday and Saturday, with a threat of isolated to scattered flash flooding. - A Flood Watch is in effect for increased flash flood potential across the area from this afternoon through early Sunday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1215 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026 Refreshed the T/Td/sky grids with the latest observational data from around the region. Also regenerated SAFs to remove fog wording from this morning, otherwise, forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 715 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026 No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids and a tweaking of the PoPs through noon. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 445 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026 08Z sfc analysis shows a weak boundary laid out just northwest of the JKl CWA and this is prompting the continued threat of showers and thunderstorms through this convective minimum into dawn. In fact, showers and thunderstorms are blossoming just northwest of our area of responsibility with additional lighter and scattered activity found over far eastern Kentucky. It is this activity, and the clouds associated with it, that is likely keeping the dense fog from becoming too widespread or extensive and generally more fleeting than that the past several nights. What is the same, though, is the high moisture content in the boundary layer with both temperatures and dewpoints nearly the same at each observation point - in the upper 60s and lower 70s - amid light and variable winds. The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are only in broad agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast as they all handle a key Central Plains shortwave slightly differently as it works east toward the Bluegrass State through the start of the weekend. The upper pattern starts with one mid level impulse moving through eastern Kentucky this morning along with some minor 5h height falls. This feature exits to the east this evening while fairly fast northwesterly mid-level flow remains in place into Friday. The next substantive wave up in this pattern is that ill modeled one over the Central Plains that ECMWF barely indicates while the GFS and NAM (slowest) are more distinctive with it. The weakness of this feature in the ECMWF allows more of its energy to work into Kentucky early on Friday while the other models keep it more contained and arriving later in the day. Either way, this pattern locally will support unsettled conditions through this part of the state well into the weekend. Despite the questionable agreement among the the finer fatuity's in the models through 00Z Saturday, the NBM was still used as the starting point for the grids as little difference in sensible weather can be expected from these model discrepancies. Did make some minor adjustment to PoPs by adding in the consensus guidance for convective timing and coverage from the latest CAM run's consensus. These results were again smoothed and fitted to a diurnal curve - though with more influence from mid and upper level dynamics - probably extending the convection deeper into the night. Sensible weather features typical wet summertime conditions stuck on repeat as conditions will be near normal for afternoon temperatures and humid with scattered to numerous afternoon/ evening convection expected. The influence of waves at mid-level working into or near the JKL CWA - particularly this afternoon and beyond - will enhance the heavy rain threat and small potential for severe storms - mainly south and west of the area. Slow storm motions and high PWS (at times over 2 inches) in place means a heightened concern for localized flooding - especially for places that see training cells - cumulative into the weekend with isolated to scattered high water issues anticipated. For this reason a Flood Watch for flash flooding is in effect from this afternoon through Sunday morning. Temperatures will be moderated by the high moisture content suppressing highs in the afternoon and making for mild lows at night. The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to include more high resolution CAMs details (smoothed) into the PoPs and thunder potential grids through Friday evening. High moisture content to the air meant there were little opportunity to improve temps and dewpoints from the NBM through the weekend. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 249 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026 The period begins with a westerly mid-level jet stream across the Ohio River Valley, including eastern Kentucky, ahead of a mid-level low/trough and stacked surface low over northeastern Missouri and western Illinois, with this feature only moving to the Lower Ohio River Valley by Sunday morning as the circulation becomes detached from the upper flow and becomes trapped by a massive upper high that develops across the western and northern CONUS late this weekend into next week. With continued warm advection and a quasi-stationary front across the area, a risk for flash flooding with the potential for rounds of heavy rain will remain through much of Saturday into Saturday night. Models strengthen this upper high to ~602-dm centered somewhere over the MO Valley through early next week before it begins to gradually weaken in place through the middle of next week. Most models are in agreement in suppressing the remnants of the trapped mid-level low and associated warm advection southward with time, with a gradual diminishing of PoPs and Sky cover from north to south from the second half of this weekend through the middle of next week as drier northeasterly mid-level flow advects in from the northeast. A marginal flash flood threat may persist across far southern/southeastern parts of the forecast area into Sunday, where better instability and moisture may linger along with relatively weak flow aloft supporting slow storm motions. The gradual drying and clearing trend through the period will also support an increasing trend for high temperatures through the period, but with highs still within a few degrees of normal in the mid to upper 80s by the end of the period, with lows in the 60s each morning. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026 Scattered pop-up showers and thunderstorms have started this afternoon and rounds of these showers and storms are expected through this afternoon and evening. There may be a breif lull for a few hours between 00Z and 06Z before more rounds work into the area from the west. Showers and storms will increase in coverage through Friday morning. With the scattered nature of these showers and storms and a degree of uncertainty, PROB30 groups were used through the TAF period. MVFR conditions will be likely with occasional IFR conditions in and around storms. Outside of any storm, winds will be fairly light and occasionally variable or out of the southwest. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...GINNICK SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...CMC AVIATION...GINNICK  966 FXUS63 KFSD 091851 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 151 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Diminishing thunderstorms arrive late tonight, and could linger into daybreak Friday. Severe storms not anticipated. - Outside of a very localized risk for thunderstorms late Friday afternoon over SW Minnesota and the Ridge areas of South Dakota, a dry forecast into next week is anticipated. - Temperatures through the upcoming 7 days will trend warmer, with widespread highs in the 90s to near 100 through much of next week. 1-2 days may feature heat advisory conditions. The cumulative nature of the heat could lead to heat illness. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 143 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 THIS AFTERNOON: Quiet conditions are likely this afternoon as winds remain light and variable. TONIGHT: Scattered convection that forms over the western High Plains will begin to roll eastward through the evening hours as a shortwave moves into the region. The majority of instability remains bottled up over the West River areas through the evening, and as convection slides eastward it's likely to diminish quickly by time it reaches the CWA. A few gusty winds with decaying showers could still be possible into south central SD. The remnant area of vorticity may drift into northern Nebraska, and could keep a low risk for convection through daybreak in the MO River valley. FRIDAY: A secondary area of convection may form over central ND late tonight, and slowly drift into northeastern SD by mid-morning Friday. A potential MCV could linger into Friday afternoon over the SD portions of the Buffalo Ridge, and with that area on the edge of the low-lvl EML, can't rule out isolated to scattered convection forming after 4-5pm. From a parameter perspective, MLCAPE values remain near 2000 J/KG, but effective shear is very weak, suggesting only pulse strong storms with wind and brief hail could be possible into SW Minnesota during the evening. As instability pulls northward in the evening the severe weather risk should diminish quickly. Elsewhere, a breezy southwest wind will push highs into the upper 80s to lower 90s. THIS WEEKEND: Mid-lvl heights begin to rise quickly as we head into the weekend, which will begin a stead upwards rise in temperatures. One thing to note in recent guidance is that surface winds Saturday and Sunday remain more from the southeast and rather light, which could hold down the extreme climb in highs suggested a few days ago. We'll also see a bit more mix down of dry air as soundings have also trended a bit drier, this will allow afternoon dew points to fall and keep heat index values below critical limits. MONDAY-THURSDAY: A dry and hot week is expected in the region as a 600+ DM 500 mb ridge centers itself over the CWA. The placement of the ridge prevent any storm development, but allow temperatures to climb through the 90s most days. Confidence is high that we'll see temperatures in the middle to upper 90s in most locations, with some areas reaching 100 along and west of the James River valley. The EC ensemble supports this idea with 60%+ probabilities along the James River valley Monday-Thursday. With afternoon dew points mixing down at least into the upper 50s to lower 60s, this should prevent widespread heat index readings over 100 degrees. While the day to day numbers may not be extreme, the cumulative effect of the heat could lead to health related strain by mid-late week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1153 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Diurnal CU field continues to form at mid-day. Brief periods of MVFR ceilings are possible over the upcoming 1-2 hours, but will lift towards VFR levels for the remainder of the afternoon. This cloud layer will dissipate this evening, leaving high level clouds in the area. Scattered convection moves eastward overnight, likely diminishing in most areas before reaching the TAF locations, however mid-lvl clouds (AOA 10K ft AGL) may develop as mid-lvl moisture/instability arrives. Isolated to scattered showers may linger along or north of Highway 14 into mid-morning. VFR conditions and light winds will prevail elsewhere. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dux AVIATION...Dux  029 FXUS64 KJAN 091852 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 152 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous levels (limited to elevated) of heat will return Thursday and persist into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Persistent sub-tropical ridging stretching across the southwest will maintain abnormal heat and humidity through the end of the workweek, the inclusion of a heat advisory will remain in effect for Bolivar/Leflore/Sunflower/Washington through 8pm tonight. Afternoon high temperatures will remain a few degrees above climo normals, combined with hotter than normal overnight lows and high humidity, we will continue to indicate the risk for elevated (level 2/4) and limited (level 1/4) risk areas for dangerous heat stress in the GWHO into this weekend. For today and tomorrow a broad area of low-level ridging will keep this warm airmass in place, resulting in a typical pattern of diurnal isolated to scattered afternoon convection./KP/ Saturday through Wednesday: A potent upper-lvl ridge will build and traverse over the Northern Plains, resulting in downstream troughing over the Mid-MS Valley. The trough will slowly push a frontal boundary towards the southeast through the weekend and into next week. As the boundary progress towards the area, rain chances will be likely to widespread (70-85%) with the greatest coverage on Sunday and Monday. Rain will stick around through mid- week as the boundary gradually moves over the area. With the ongoing rain potential, heat relief is expected as heat indices drop below 105 degrees. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. VCTS will be possible this afternoon, mainly at eastern TAF sites briefly reducing categories. Patchy BR/low stratus will also be possible Friday morning at sites PIB/HBG from around 12Z-15Z.Winds will increase from the southwest between 5-10 knots by late this morning, and continue as such through the afternoon hours./KP/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 75 94 75 93 / 10 0 10 20 Meridian 74 94 75 94 / 20 10 10 40 Vicksburg 76 94 76 94 / 10 0 10 10 Hattiesburg 75 95 76 94 / 20 20 10 60 Natchez 75 95 75 94 / 0 10 10 40 Greenville 76 95 77 94 / 0 0 0 20 Greenwood 76 95 76 94 / 0 0 10 40 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025-034. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ KP/SW/KP  026 FXUS65 KTFX 091852 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1252 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Turning drier and much warmer through the weekend, with some record heat possible over the weekend. - Breezy conditions Saturday may result in some elevated fire conditions, most notably across Southwest Montana - Not as hot next week, but still warm through next week. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: Upper level ridging will bring the warmest temperatures of the year thus far to Southwest through North Central Montana this weekend and into the day on Monday, with overall dry conditions expected through the timeframe. Friday will be the transition day as upper level riding amplifies over the Central Rockies and Northern High Plains, with temperatures warming into the 80s to low 90s. Enough moisture streaming northeast within the upstream side of the amplifying ridge will help to support isolated showers and storms across the Northern Rockies on Friday, initially across Southwest Montana during the afternoon hours before spreading north to Central and North Central Montana during the evening hours. High temperatures warm further into the 90s to low 100s over the weekend and into Monday, with breezy south to west winds developing each day during the afternoon hours, especially across Southwest Montana and along the Rocky Mountain Front. - Moldan Upper level flow will shift to more westerly on Monday, which will allow temperatures to lower a bit from the weekend highs, but most areas will still be quite warm with temperatures well into the 80s to low 90s. With this upper level flow pattern, expect generally dry conditions with just a few showers and thunderstorms to pop up in the afternoon. A passing upper level trough may bring some more widespread showers and storms on Wednesday, though timing of the trough passage will ultimately determine just how widespread and intense the storms will be. - Ludwig - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Hot Temperatures this Weekend... Climate anomaly indicators continue to support the potential for an unusual to very unusual period of hot temperatures, with respect to early to mid-July climatology, across the Northern Rockies; especially along and east of a Lewistown, to Helena, to Chief Joseph Pass line where EFIs are in excess of 0.6. This is not to say that areas north and west of this line will not also see hot temperatures, but with respect to July climatology readings will not be as anomalous. The tables below depict Low End (NBM5.0 10th Percentiles), Most Likely (50th Percentiles), and High End (NBM5.0 90th Percentiles) scenarios with respect to high and low temperatures over the weekend; with larger spreads between the three scenarios suggesting greater uncertainty due to a combination of cloud cover/wind speeds and directions/latent heat release while smaller spreads suggest greater certainty. ********************************************************************* Saturday's High Temperature Scenarios LOCATION Low End | Most Likely | High End Browning 81 | 84 | 89 Cut Bank 87 | 91 | 95 Havre 94 | 100 | 104 Great Falls 94 | 99 | 103 Lewistown 92 | 96 | 99 Helena 93 | 98 | 101 White Sulphur Springs 92 | 94 | 97 Bozeman 95 | 97 | 99 Dillon 91 | 95 | 97 Ennis 92 | 95 | 97 West Yellowstone 83 | 89 | 91 Sat. Night's Low Temperature Scenarios LOCATION Low End | Most Likely | High End Browning 53 | 57 | 61 Cut Bank 53 | 57 | 64 Havre 57 | 60 | 65 Great Falls 56 | 61 | 66 Lewistown 54 | 57 | 61 Helena 57 | 64 | 67 White Sulphur Springs 52 | 56 | 59 Bozeman 56 | 61 | 64 Dillon 54 | 58 | 61 Ennis 56 | 59 | 62 West Yellowstone 46 | 51 | 56 ********************************************************************* Sunday's High Temperature Scenarios LOCATION Low End | Most Likely | High End Browning 79 | 87 | 93 Cut Bank 86 | 93 | 99 Havre 95 | 101 | 109 Great Falls 94 | 100 | 107 Lewistown 94 | 100 | 106 Helena 94 | 99 | 106 White Sulphur Springs 93 | 98 | 102 Bozeman 96 | 101 | 104 Dillon 92 | 97 | 101 Ennis 96 | 100 | 102 West Yellowstone 90 | 94 | 96 Sun. Night's Low Temperature Scenarios LOCATION Low End | Most Likely | High End Browning 52 | 59 | 65 Cut Bank 53 | 61 | 68 Havre 57 | 63 | 69 Great Falls 59 | 64 | 70 Lewistown 55 | 58 | 65 Helena 61 | 67 | 72 White Sulphur Springs 54 | 57 | 63 Bozeman 57 | 61 | 66 Dillon 57 | 61 | 64 Ennis 57 | 60 | 64 West Yellowstone 49 | 55 | 60 ********************************************************************* Monday's High Temperature Scenarios LOCATION Low End | Most Likely | High End Browning 79 | 86 | 91 Cut Bank 82 | 91 | 96 Havre 86 | 96 | 103 Great Falls 88 | 97 | 101 Lewistown 85 | 93 | 98 Helena 89 | 95 | 100 White Sulphur Springs 88 | 94 | 97 Bozeman 90 | 96 | 101 Dillon 88 | 93 | 97 Ennis 89 | 95 | 99 West Yellowstone 87 | 92 | 96 ********************************************************************* At this time these scenarios continue to suggest that while daytime temperatures will be hot across most areas, especially on Sunday, temperatures will cool sufficiently enough during the overnight hours to provide some relief from the Extreme Heat that will be seen further east over Eastern Montana. This relief offsets the need for Extreme Heat Warnings; however, with overnight lows only dipping into the 60 to 70 degree range across most of the plains and valleys of North Central through Southwest Montana, which is 10 to 15 degrees warmer than climatology, the window for relief will be quite limited. For this reason a Heat Advisory was deemed the most appropriate at this time, but should high and/or low temperatures trend warmer over the next several day then upgrades to Extreme Heat Warnings may be need for some areas. - Moldan && .AVIATION... 09/18Z TAF Period VFR conditions will prevail through the 0918/1018 TAF period; however, hot temperatures through the weekend may result in some high density issues, particularly across the terminals of Southwest and portions of Central Montana. - Moldan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 55 94 59 98 / 0 0 20 0 CTB 55 87 58 90 / 0 0 20 20 HLN 56 91 60 97 / 0 10 20 0 BZN 53 90 57 99 / 0 10 20 10 WYS 45 86 47 91 / 20 0 0 0 DLN 51 88 54 96 / 0 10 20 0 HVR 56 93 59 99 / 0 0 10 0 LWT 52 89 55 96 / 0 0 20 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 9 PM MDT Monday for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Canyon Ferry Area-Cascade County below 5000ft-Eastern Pondera and Eastern Teton-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Fergus County below 4500ft-Gallatin Valley- Gates of the Mountains-Helena Valley-Hill County-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Madison River Valley-Missouri Headwaters- Northern Blaine County-Southern High Plains-Western and Central Chouteau County. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  083 FXUS63 KMKX 091854 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 154 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into the evening with the passage of a weak cold front. Brief funnel clouds, gusty winds, small hail and locally heavy rainfall are possible. - Hot and muggy conditions return early next week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 154 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 This afternoon through Friday night: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are ongoing along the weak cold front over central WI. The front will slowly move swd and reach the IL border by 23-00Z, but slightly quicker for the counties adjacent to Lake MI as the front accelerates down the lake. Meanwhile a shortwave trough over nw IA will track across far srn WI this evening. Thus expected scattered showers and storms to slowly develop from north to south into the evening, ending by late evening. MLCAPE around 1500 J/KG, DCAPE over 1000 J/KG, and effective shear around 20 kts can support a few strong storms. In addition, high 0-3 KM CAPE in combination with sfc vorticity along the front will result in brief funnel clouds with initial updrafts. Nely winds and a slightly cooler and drier airmass can be expected for Fri-Fri nt as a ridge of high pressure extends south from Ontario into WI. Near normal temps and humidity is forecast. Gehring && .LONG TERM... Issued 154 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Weekend through Thursday: A warming trend is expected as a large and strong upper ridge first extends from the Desert SW into the nrn Great Plains this weekend, then re-orients itself west to east from WY through the Great Lakes early next week. Sfc ridging will remain over srn WI and prevent high dewpoint air from advecting into the region until Tue. High temps will warm through the 80s during this time approaching 90F for well inland next week. Lake breezes will develop each day so cooler near the lake. At this time, maximum heat index values of lower to middle 90s are forecast next week. Gehring && .AVIATION... Issued 154 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Areas of MVFR Cigs this afternoon through 15Z Fri as a weak cold front slowly moves south through srn WI. Patchy light fog and BR is expected to develop late tnt through 15Z Fri with Vsbys ranging from 1-5SM. VFR conditions will then take hold after 15Z Fri. Gehring && .MARINE... Issued 154 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Light to modest north winds over the northern half of the lake will slowly move south today, shifting winds in the southern half of the lake from southerly to northerly. Some fog may develop at times during this period, with patchy dense fog possible, as relatively warm, moist air remains over the cooler lake waters. Winds will remain north to northeast on Friday, as high pressure around 30.0 inches builds into the the region from the north. The high should shift southeast over the weekend, which should continue to bring light to modest winds. Gehring && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  099 FXUS65 KVEF 091855 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1155 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry conditions and above-normal temperatures will continue through the end of the week. * Monsoonal moisture begins increasing this weekend, resulting in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms early next week. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday. High temperatures will continue to be fairly steady and 6 to 8 degrees above normal into the weekend. Hot daytime temperatures combined with warm overnight low temperatures will result in widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) with small pockets of Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk for most locations. A combination of dry and breezy conditions also prompt elevated fire weather conditions across much of the region today and tomorrow. High temperatures will begin to trend downward on Sunday but low temperatures will be trending higher with the increase in moisture. The center of the high will make to near the Four Corners Region on Saturday afternoon. Given the easterly flow, any convection over the Mogollon Rim may produce outflow that may push into Mohave County as early as Saturday evening. Overall, gusty outflow winds and dry lightning continue to be the primary threats for at least the first few days as forecast soundings display inverted-V patterns with moisture aloft and drier air near the surface. Orographic lift will favor storm formation over high terrain. Thunderstorms will be isolated on Sunday as instability will be fairly limited but coverage should increase across the area on Monday. The moisture will ebb and flow during the week as the center of high pressure shifts a little further north or south. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package... Winds will gradually become southeast to south for a few hours this morning with speeds generally around 8-10 knots. An occasional gust to around 15 knots will be possible at times. After 20Z, expect a more solid southwest wind which will likely last through much of the overnight period. Speeds 10-15 knots will gusts to around 25 knots are expected. Temperatures will exceed 100 degrees between 17Z and 04Z with a high of 110. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Expect gusty southwest winds between 20 and 25 kts at Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River Valley TAF sites that peak this afternoon, but linger well into the evening. 60 percent chance of gusts over 20 kts persisting after 03Z until 08 to 12Z. KBIH will stay generally below 10 kts and will favor the north, with a brief shift from the south-southeast before veering west-northwest then northwest for the evening. KDAG will gust from the west through the day with gusts peaking around 30 kts. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Czyzyk AVIATION...Gorelow/Soulat For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  162 FXUS62 KMLB 091856 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 256 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, CLIMATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - A Heat Advisory has been issued for all East Central Florida through 8 PM this evening for peak afternoon heat indices up to 110F. - Hot through Saturday, especially across the north where high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will keep heat indices around to just under Heat Advisory criteria (108-112 degrees), with widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk impacts. - Below normal rain chances 40 percent or less continue through Friday, then rain chances pick back up closer to normal 30 to 60 percent from the weekend into early next week, before decreasing again. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Today-Tonight... Upper level high pressure across the southern US will remain in place through the day. At the surface, high pressure in the western Atlantic will will slowly lift its axis from south Florida to north Florida through the day. This will result in light and variable winds across east central Florida. The east coast sea breeze has formed already this afternoon and is slowly pushing inland this afternoon. The west coast sea breeze is slightly favored over the east coast sea breeze (except from Cape Canaveral southward), with the collision forecast to occur across the interior into this evening. Drier air continues to filter across the area today, with PW values ranging from 1.5-1.7" south of the I-4 corridor, and 1.8-2.1" northward. This will suppress the overall rain chances today, with 20 percent chance for showers and storms from the Orlando Metro to the Cape northward (with the sea breeze collision being the primary focus) late this afternoon and into this evening (generally after 6pm). The environment will support showers and storms, with forecast models showing ample instability (MUCAPE 2500+j/kg), and sufficient downdraft potential (DCAPE ~800 J/kg) which could be aided by the drier air aloft. The main storm hazards today will be frequent to excessive lightning, gusty winds 40-55 mph (with a very low chance for locally high winds to 60 mph), and torrential downpours. Very hot today with a few locations near daily record highs (see climate section below). Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 90s, with peak heat indices near to above 108F, up to 110F along the I-95 corridor in Volusia, Brevard, and adjacent portions of inland counties. Widespread Major with areas of Extreme HeatRisk impacts are forecast. A Heat Advisory has been issued for all East Central Florida through 8 PM this evening. Never leave children or pets unattended in a hot vehicle. Look before you lock! Take frequent hydration breaks if outdoors, and seek the A/C or shade if you feel unwell. Friday-Saturday... Upper level high pressure across the southern US will expand to the central US by Saturday. At the surface, high pressure across the western Atlantic, with its axis extending over the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf, will stay in place through the period. Locally, this will result in south to southeasterly flow continuing through early weekend. Higher moisture will filter across the south (PW values around 2.0" across the south and 1.7-1.8" across the north) on Friday, before the higher moisture spreads across much of ECFL on Saturday (PW values 1.8-2.1"). There is a low to medium (20-40 percent) chance of showers and lightning storms on Friday, with the highest chances occurring around Lake Okeechobee, and a medium (40-60 percent) chance of showers and storms areawide on Saturday. Storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 45-55mph, and locally heavy rainfall. Above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend, with afternoon highs generally in the mid to upper 90s each day. These temperatures coupled with high humidity will produce peak heat indices of 100-107 degrees. While these temperatures are just below Heat Advisory criteria, it is very close. So will continue to closely monitor these values, and a Heat Advisory may be needed this weekend. Regardless on if a Heat Advisory is issued, widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk impacts are forecast both days. Sunday-Wednesday... Upper level high pressure will continue to dominate across the Southern and central US through midweek, despite a trough moving into the NE US by mid week. At the surface, the high pressure across the Florida peninsula and the Deep South will weaken into early to mid week as a trough builds from the NE US down across the eastern seaboard and a weak associated front will move into the Deep South. This will result in some relief from the above normal heat across Florida. Forecast soundings show some drier air, PW 1.6- 1.7", will filter across the area from the south by early week. Despite the drier air, upper level support from the aforementioned trough and the associated front as well as moisture along the front will support near to slightly above normal rain chances across east central Florida next week. Higher cloud cover will help slightly with temperatures, with afternoon highs at or slightly above normal. Peak heat indices will be 102-107 degrees each day, with widespread Moderate with areas of Major HeatRisk impacts forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Today-Monday... Generally favorable boating conditions through early next week as high pressure remains in control. South to southwest winds today will shift southwest to southeast on Friday and Saturday, before becoming south to to southwest once again by early next week. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form each day, backing the winds south to southeast behind the breeze in the afternoon and early evening. Winds speeds will generally be 5-15KT, occasionally reaching over 15 KT from the Cape northward overnight. Seas will be 1-3 feet. There is low (20 percent) chances for showers and lightning storms through Friday, then chances increase closer to normal (30-60%) through the weekend into early next week, starting near the coast Saturday and Sunday, then expanding into the offshore waters by early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 142 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Drier air and ridge aloft will keep shower and storm coverage limited today, with PoPs this afternoon and evening only around 20% north and inland of KMLB. Have therefore kept only VCTS mentioned from 21-01Z for most of these sites, except 20-00Z at KLEE and 21-02Z for KDAB/KTIX. Will continue to monitor trends if any TEMPO groups for TSRA IFR/MVFR impacts are expected. Any convection that develops will diminish into late evening, with dry conditions forecast overnight. Winds will be rather light and variable around 4-6kt, except behind the inland moving east coast sea breeze with winds picking up out of the E/SE around 10-13 knots. Winds then diminish overnight. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Record high temperatures at local climate sites for this week: Site July 9 July 10 July 11 Daytona 97 (2022) 97 (2010) 98 (1980) Leesburg 97 (2016) 97 (2016) 97 (2016) Sanford 100 (2016) 97 (2007) 99 (1969) Orlando 98 (1932) 99 (1980) 98 (1989) Melbourne 96 (2023) 98 (1964) 97 (2010) Vero Beach 96 (2024) 97 (2022) 96 (2020) Fort Pierce 100 (1932) 96 (1981) 99 (1980) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 7795 77 95 / 20 10 10 30 MCO 77 98 77 97 / 20 20 10 60 MLB 77 92 78 92 / 10 10 10 50 VRB 77 93 77 93 / 0 10 0 50 LEE 79 97 79 96 / 20 20 20 40 SFB 77 97 77 97 / 20 10 10 50 ORL 78 97 78 96 / 20 10 10 50 FPR 76 92 77 92 / 0 10 10 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053- 058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Watson AVIATION...Weitlich  199 FXUS66 KMTR 091857 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area Issued by National Weather Service Eureka CA 1157 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .New AVIATION... && .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 425 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Warmer temperatures continues through the weekend - Long period southwest swell causes an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents through Friday - Coastal Flood Advisory for up to 1.7 feet of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways - Potential for thunderstorms and elevated fire weather concerns late this weekend into early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1244 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 (Today and tonight) Onshore winds are ushering stratus inland. 2.8 mb ACV-SFO and 3.0 mb SFO-SAC pressure gradients support northwest to west winds. The 500 mb high pressure system centered over southern California and northern Mexico will remain nearly stationary over the next 24 hours. Surface warming will mix out much of the stratus today by late morning and afternoon. Daytime highs today will be in the 60s coastside, 60s/70s bayside to the 80s/90s inland. Stratus returns tonight. Lows will be in the 50s except lower to mid 60s at higher elevations tonight. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1244 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 (Friday through Wednesday) Global model guidance is consistent showing the 500 mb high pressure system beginning to move northeastward Friday through early next week. Daytime highs will be coolest along the coast with 60s, 60s/70s bayside and in the 80s/90s inland to the lower 100s far inland mainly over the southern interior. Night-time lows will cool to the 50s/60s. Southerly winds aloft on the periphery of the high will transport mid-level sub-tropical/tropical moisture to our forecast area beginning Saturday night and Sunday and lasting through Tuesday night. We'll continue to monitor the potential for a temporary increase in mid level instability. At the earliest onset of moisture arriving, recent 00z guidance from the NAM and RRFS are mixed, the NAM shows pockets of instability to our southwest late Saturday night to early Sunday, while the RRFS does not show any mucape. 00z GFS continues to show essentially no mucape except occasional pockets of mid-level mucape. We'll continue to monitor the higher resolution models with each subsequent model run(s). A possible limiting factor for convection over our forecast area is 500 mb height ridging is forecast to extend west from the eastward departing 500 mb high center. If this occurs, broad anticyclonic flow will be present, however can't completely discount embedded thermal trough(s) within the broad anticyclonic flow given the height field; summer weather systems can be a complex mix in the various layers of the troposphere. There's currently good agreement in this westward extending 500 mb ridge scenario in the ECMWF and GFS, a good sign for less convective potential. At this time the potential for convection is a low confidence forecast because of the varied output seen so far. Please stay tuned to the latest updates. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 W-NW flow brought stratus overnight but the vast majority has since mixed out leaving VFR for all terminals except MRY and HAF. The W-NW flow will likely be stronger today as the pressure gradient tightens over the coastal waters resulting in wind speeds higher than yesterday at most terminals. Stratus will return overnight as the onshore flow persists with IFR to LIFR conditions likely at most terminals into Friday morning. Vicinity of SFO...Skies have cleared as SFO and VFR should persist through the remainder of the day. W-NW winds gusting over 20 mph can be expected this afternoon. MVFR or IFR ceilings will return once again soon after sunset. SFO Bridge Approach...Skies will remain clear today with a return of MVFR/IFR ceilings overnight. Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR ceilings continue at MRY with an eddy spinning over the bay pushing stratus toward the coast. There is a 50/50 chance of a short window of VFR by mid- afternoon, then IFR/LIFR returns after sunset through the remainder of the forecast period. SNS has cleared and will see several hours of VFR today followed by a return of IFR ceilings in the evening. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 425 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Fresh to strong northwest winds continue, increasing to near gale force heading into the weekend. Wind driven rough seas (9-11 ft) will persist into the weekend along with a long period southerly swell. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 425 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Warmer and drier conditions continue into this weekend. This increases fire weather concerns slightly as fuels are forecast to rapidly dry across the interior. Fire weather concerns further increase late this weekend into early next week as a surge of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California brings the potential for high based convection to the region. If thunderstorms are able to develop, dry lightning and gusty, erratic outflow winds would be the main hazards. The current pattern looks conducive for thunderstorms to develop but this may change as the event gets closer in time. The main forecast concern is the lack of instability across our region which may prevent convection from developing. Given the combination of the potential for dry lightning and rapidly drying fuels, it is important to stay up to date on the forecast as it evolves. && .BEACHES... Issued at 425 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for Pacific coast beaches through Friday afternoon. Long period southwesterly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 feet. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for minor high tide flooding through Thursday July 16th. The combination of a perigean spring tide (lunar perigee on 7/13 and new moon on 7/14) enhanced by 3-6 inches of additional water from thermal expansion and accumulated sea level rise since the tidal datum was established (1983-2001) will bring high tides up to 1.7 feet above normal. This will lead to minor flooding of parking lots, parks and roads with isolated closures expected. For context, in June we reached 2.0 feet above normal. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506-508. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 4 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. SmallCraft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea