523 FXUS61 KBGM 091902 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 302 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Precipitation chances were slightly reduced across the area for this afternoon and evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warm and humid conditions today, with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible later this afternoon into tonight across the area. 2) Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening along a stalled frontal boundary with localized flash flooding possible over the Twin Tiers into the Wyoming Valley. 3) After seasonal temperatures this weekend, heat builds into the area through the middle of next week with possible storms. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Warm and moderately humid conditions across the area this afternoon. Temperatures will top out in the mid 80s to low 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. It will feel slightly muggy out, but nothing like last week. Heat indices will only be a few degrees higher than actual temperatures so heat headlines were not needed for today. Showers and storms are expected to develop across portions of the area later this afternoon and evening. Model soundings are showing a mid level warm nose, capping convection across the area this afternoon. This should last into the early evening hours before finally breaking and allowing some isolated storms to develop. A very positively tilted trough and associated surface boundary is spread across the Great Lakes into Ontario and will slowly slide into the area late this afternoon into the evening. MLCAPE values of 1000-1500j/kg are expected to be present across the northern Finger Lakes into Oneida county late this afternoon and evening along with 0-6km bulk shear increasing to around 30kts. These parameters combined with the mid-level cap breaking should allow for a few storms to develop over the northern Finger Lakes into Oneida county. The window for these storms to become severe looks to be small as the cap is forecast to break only a few hours before sunset. That being said, an isolated severe storm with strong to damaging winds cannot be ruled out over this area. Storm activity is progged to weaken as the evening progresses, but a few isolated showers and storms cannot be ruled out across the area into the overnight hours with the late breaking cap and warm and humid air sticking around. The trough is slowly moving to the east, and with its positive tilt, steering winds are mostly west to east. This will allow the "cool" front moving in from Canada to very slowly slide south through the area through the overnight hours into Friday. A few showers could develop along the boundary as it slides south. KEY MESSAGE 2... With the frontal boundary slowly sliding south and synoptic winds continuing to be from the west, humidity is expected to remain high but temperatures will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s on Friday. By Friday afternoon, a shortwave bringing some mid- level flow enhancement is forecast to move into the area. This shortwave combined with the front draped somewhere across the Twin Tiers will kick off scattered afternoon showers and storms across portions of the Finger Lakes, Twin Tiers and into the Catskills and Poconos. CAPE values around 1500j/kg combined with 0-6km bulk shear increasing to 30-40kts with the shortwave will allow for isolated severe storms to be possible from Steuben county east into the central Southern Tier and SE into the Wyoming Valley and Poconos, with damaging winds as the main threat. A Marginal Risk for severe storms has been issued by the SPC over this area. To go along with the isolated severe threat, heavy rainfall leading to isolated flash flooding will also be possible across the Twin Tiers into theWyoming Valley and Poconos. PWATs of 1.5-2in, MBE vectors below 10kts showing slow moving or back building storms, warm cloud depths of 11-12k ft allowing for efficient rainfall generation and a slow moving boundary all add up to a Marginal Risk for flash flooding across the aforementioned area. Showers and storms should dissipate in the evening as daytime heating ends and the trough axis finally moves through the area, switching synoptic flow to northerly and ushering in cooler, drier air to the region. Friday night lows and dewpoints will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Key Message 3... High pressure will be in control over the area for the weekend, keeping flow northerly and conditions dry and seasonal. A very strong ridge centered over the western US will be the main weather driver through at least the middle of next week. The ridge positioning this weekend will push the eastern edge of a surface high into our area. This will keep flow out of the north through the weekend with pleasant seasonal conditions expected. The ridge will strengthen and build into the north central US by Monday. This will shift winds to westerly through mid-week and push hot air into the region. Monday should be the most "pleasant" warm day as temperatures climb into the mid to upper 80s but dewpoints remain in the upper 50s. The humidity will return by Tuesday and through mid-week as dewpoints climb up into the mid 60s. We may also see some storms develop and ride the edge of the ridge into our region. Confidence in this occurring is low at this time, but the pattern that is setting up lends itself to mesoscale convective systems developing over the north central US and that energy riding the ridge into our area. This is very dependent on where the MCS develops and how the flow around the ridge is oriented. Lots of times these systems have to develop first before model guidance can catch on to it and give us an idea of where storms may go, but the setup is good enough to mention the chance of this occurring now. Long range model guidance is hinting at the center of the ridge retrograding westward back over the western US. This would more than likely put a trough over eastern Canada that would influence our weather pattern with cooler temperatures but more precipitation chances. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Weak high pressure in place across the region this afternoon with currently a broad area of shallow cumulus. As the afternoon progresses the cloud layer should deepen and scattered showers and storms will develop. The most favorable area is still north of ITH, but have added VCTS to ITH, ELM, BGM and AVP for a couple hours to account for this uncertainty. Locations that see rain today/this evening will have a higher chance of seeing low clouds and fog later tonight. A weak wave will ride eastward through the southern tier of NY and be dissipating Friday morning between 13-18Z. A few rain showers are possible. SW winds around 10 kt this afternoon will subside to variable and less than 4 kt tonight before veering to the NW Friday morning around 5 to 13 kt. Outlook: Friday night...Dissipating showers and thunderstorms early...then patchy valley fog late. Restrictions possible. Saturday into Tuesday...VFR likely with high pressure building in, morning fog potential at ELM. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JTC AVIATION...BJT  528 FXUS66 KSTO 091902 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1202 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Near to above-normal temperatures and areas of Moderate HeatRisk today-Monday, with continued onshore flow moderating overnight temperatures. - Breezy southerly winds and marginally low daytime humidity will bring elevated fire weather conditions on Friday. - Potential for monsoonal moisture to bring showers and thunderstorms to the Sierra early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Clear skies once again this early afternoon across interior NorCal. Warmer temperatures are being observed compared to similar times yesterday, as broad ridging has developed across portions of SoCal with zonal heights aloft for NorCal. Triple-digit heat is expected in the northern Sacramento Valley today, with Redding and Red Bluff both forecast to hit 104 this afternoon. Rest of the Valley looks to remain in the 90s. Seasonable high temperatures continue through the weekend and into next week, with mostly Minor HeatRisk and isolated Moderate HeatRisk. By Tuesday, widespread Moderate HeatRisk will develop in the Valley. Southerly wind gusts have slightly increased on Friday, with marginally low daytime humidity in the forecast. That said, elevated fire weather conditions will exist tomorrow afternoon and evening for the Valley and foothills. South wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph will be possible, strongest in the northern Sacramento Valley. Latest forecast trends are keeping a potential push of monsoonal moisture moving into the region by late Sunday night/early Monday morning. High pressure is forecast to move into the Four Corners region, while off-shore troughing develops in the eastern Pacific. Monsoonal moisture will begin moving into the region by late Sunday and introduce mountain thunderstorm chances. What remains uncertain is just how much moisture there will be and how far west will moisture will be. The EFI continues to show QPF Shift of Tails over portions of the Sacramento Valley and northern San Joaquin Valley and adjacent foothills/mountains and the EC shows modest PWAT values nosing into the Valley Sunday night. We will need to see if we will have any shortwave vorticity support from the offshore trough to help instability develop aloft. Those conditions could lead to some elevated thunderstorm potential in lower elevations, but confidence remains low on Valley/foothill t-storms developing at this time. Best chances for thunderstorms remain in the Sierra mainly south of I-80 beginning Monday afternoon continuing through at least Wednesday. We will continue to monitor the trends and hope to have better details as we move into the weekend. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail across interior NorCal next 24 hours. Surface winds from south to southwest around 15 kts with occasional gusts up to 20 kts in Sacramento Valley. Surface winds around 15 kts in northern San Joaquin Valley beginning around 22z today as onshore flow builds. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$  666 FXUS63 KEAX 091905 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 205 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and again on Friday. The severe risk is low today, however a few stronger storms could produce gusty winds, small hail, and pockets of heavy rain. Stronger storms are posisble on Friday. - Dry with a warming trend Sunday into next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Morning storms have pushed east into central and eastern Missouri with clearing skies. Gravity waves in the wake of the storms can be picked out in GOES satellite imagery across the area. Farther west satellite imagery shows daytime cumulus blossoming around outflow boundaries left behind by morning convection and in the vicinity of a diffuse surface low across Kansas. This area has our attention for potential convective initiation later this afternoon and evening. Temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s already this afternoon with a pool of 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE just south of the I-70 corridor. As the low slides east and encounters better instability storms are expected to develop. With modest forcing widespread activity is not anticipated though isolated storms are expected. These storms would be capable of gusty wind and small hail, with weaker shear limiting more robust development. Pockets of heavy rain are also possible with PWATs near 2" and deep warm cloud layers of 3500+ m. Storms motions are fairly slow at around 15 kts and could further support flood concerns, especially in urban areas. An embedded shortwave will move across Kansas overnight with convection fueled by the low level jet. That convection is expected to reach western Missouri around sunrise Friday, diminishing as the MCS moves east across the area through the morning. As the associated surface low moves across the area from midday into the evening, restrengthening of storms is anticipated. The degree of strengthening will depend on how much destabilization can occur into the afternoon, though synoptic support should help. Soundings indicate around 2000+ J/kg of MLCAPE with 30-40+ kts of shear to organize storms. Hail and damaging wind gusts are possible along and south of the I-70 corridor. Pockets of heavy rain are once again possible with PWATs exceeding 2" in some places and deep warm cloud layers allowing for efficient rain production. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Ridging builds as the shortwave lifts east. There is uncertainty in how quickly that shortwave may lift east and any lingering boundaries across the area that may allow for isolated convection on Saturday. Placement will depend heavily on evolution Friday, which depends on evolution today, leading to high uncertainty. There is very little available shear for storm organization, so any storms that are able to develop on Saturday may be pulsey with low severe potential. The ridge continues to build Sunday into next week, keeping the area dry and kicking off a warming trend. Temperatures warm back into the low 90s next week, though dewpoints remain lower in the upper 60s. This will help to keep heat indicies more in check than last week, though area along an south of the I-70 corridor may still approach 100 by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop this afternoon, though there is uncertainty in where exactly these develop. Given the uncertainty in the placement of storms, have kept as prob30 across all sites. Storms end after 00z with winds becoming light and variable in direction. Additional showers are expected on Friday morning across all sites. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hagenhoff LONG TERM...Hagenhoff AVIATION...Hagenhoff  653 FXUS64 KMRX 091904 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 304 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 255 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Multiple rounds of showers and storms are expected Friday and continuing through the weekend. Flash flooding will be a concern for areas that see repeated heavy downpours. A Flood Watch is in effect Friday afternoon through Sunday evening. - Some storms could lead to strong wind gusts as well, especially Friday afternoon. - Drier weather returns for the middle of next week with near normal temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A weakening shortwave is lifting from the southern to central Appalachians this afternoon and evening. Isolated to weakly scattered convection has developed in its presence. Latest model derived soundings and SPC Mesoanalysis page suggest MLCAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg paired with PWATs between 1.5-1.7 inches. Cannot rule out some gusty winds or localized flooding if multiple strong cells track over one location, however, the main focus for the forecast period will be tomorrow and carrying into the weekend. A more potent shortwave will enhance westerly low and mid-level flow Friday morning, also amplifying upper level longwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes region. Multiple rounds of showers and storms among highly anomalous moisture availability are expected Friday through at least the weekend as various vort maxes round the base of the trough. Some showers and storms may develop Friday morning, but with drier air aloft and limited instability due to the time of day, lower confidence exists in the potential for minor flooding. As we head into the PM hours, a semi-organized cluster of storms is expected while PWAT values increase to near or just above 2 inches. This reaches into the 90th percentile for PWAT values based at KBNA. Combined with high freezing levels and plenty of afternoon instability, the chance for flooding will be on the increase. A Flood Watch has been introduced starting at 16Z and carries into Sunday evening. Additionally, strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out with the activity roughly between 11am-4pm Friday as an elevated mixed layer will promote enhanced DCAPE near 800-1100 J/kg. Strong to damaging winds will be the primary hazard. A brief lull in activity is expected late Friday afternoon before additional showers and storms develop Friday night into Saturday. Overall, this period looks to have the greatest potential for flooding as a northwest to southeast area of convection develops and could lead to training heavy downpours. The chance for precipitation continues into Sunday and Monday, but there is a bit more uncertainty as to how the the position of a front evolves through the weekend and into the new week. However, it does look that Tuesday into the mid week will feature drier conditions among a warming trend. The best chance for some lingering precip would be in the very southern tier of counties. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 141 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Isolated storms could briefly impact terminals this afternoon, otherwise, main aviation impact will be breezy southwesterly winds with gusts near 20kts at TYS and TRI. Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow afternoon. Confidence is lower in potential for some early morning precipitation, but chances for storms will start to really increase around the very end of the TAF cycle. There is also a low chance brief MVFR cigs develop near TRI in the morning, similar to previous days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 91 73 88 / 10 50 60 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 88 72 84 / 30 80 90 90 Oak Ridge, TN 70 87 71 85 / 30 90 80 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 84 67 81 / 30 90 90 90 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday evening for Cherokee-Clay. TN...Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday evening for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell- Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen- Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon- Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount- Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-Union-Washington TN-West Polk. VA...Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday evening for Lee- Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise. && $$ DISCUSSION...KRS AVIATION...KRS  679 FXUS65 KSLC 091905 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 105 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1104 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026... - Another round of isolated thunderstorms will develop in vicinity of I-80 tomorrow over the higher terrain, capable of producing strong outflow winds over 50 mph. - Gusty winds and low relative humidity will combine to produce areas of critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon and early evening Thursday over portions of southern Utah. - The most significant heat wave thus far this season will develop over the weekend with high temperatures challenging daily and monthly records Saturday and Sunday. Most valleys and some mountain valleys have a greater than 60 percent chance of seeing HeatRisk values in the red (Major) range, bringing an increased chance of heat-related illnesses. - Confidence is increasing the monsoonal moisture will move into the area by the middle of the upcoming week, though details of which days have a higher chance of flash flooding have yet to come into focus. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1104 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026... A slightly drier air mass will begin to make its way into the area tomorrow under southwest flow aloft, with the most notable drying over southern Utah. With lingering moisture over northern Utah and another subtle shortwave trough on track to move through during the afternoon, anticipate the development of at least a few showers and thunderstorms, though coverage will likely be a bit less than recent days. As the airmass continues to dry and strong high pressure builds substantially over the western United States, confidence is high in temperatures across Utah and southwest Wyoming shooting up to record challenging levels for Saturday and Sunday. Guidance continues to show the center of the ridge over Utah on Saturday and just east of the area on Sunday. Guidance has, if anything, gone up with regard to the forecast compared to yesterday, with the majority of valleys and mountain valleys showing at least a 60 percent chance of red (major) HeatRisk for both Saturday and Sunday. It seems all but certain that daily temperature records will be broken, with some monthly and (in the case of the Cache Valley) all time records forecast to be broken. Given this and many valley low temperatures staying in the 70s overnight, this will predictably bring a quite increased chance of heat related illnesses over the weekend. Given the high confidence in the forecast, have gone ahead and issued an Extreme Heat Watch for all of those areas with at least a 60 percent chance of seeing HeatRisk values in the red, which includes just about all valleys (lower Washington county excluded) and many mountain valleys. As the forecast comes in clearer focus over the next couple of days, upcoming shifts will make decisions about advisories and warnings. With southerly flow expected to increase over the area for the early and middle part of the upcoming week, models continue to indicate a high likelihood of monsoonal moisture returning to the area, bringing temperatures down and rain chances up. While this would decrease the fire danger, it brings an increased potential for flash flooding, particularly for southern Utah. The ECMWF ensemble probability of >1" of precipitable water, for example, indicates a 60-80% of that magnitude of moisture sitting over the entire Great Basin for a week or more starting next Tuesday. Details of which days have the best chance of flash flooding have yet to be ironed out, as that will likely involve timing of weak shortwave impulses (if any), which cannot be ascertained this far out in time. && .AVIATION, Issued 1139 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026... KSLC...Showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop over the Oquirrh Mountains after ~20-21z, but will likely stay south of the terminal through the afternoon. However, there is still a ~20% chance that a shower or thunderstorms does drift over the airfield before 02z. Gusty outflow winds are more likely to produce an impact, potentially resulting in a wind shift to gusty southerly/southwesterly winds as early as 23z (10% chance of exceeding 40kts briefly). Winds will become lighter and terrain- driven after 02z, becoming light and variable at times overnight. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop after 19-20z across portions of Utah north of I-70 and primarily along/south of KENV-KSLC-KEVW. These storms will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds generally 20-30kts, though stronger storms could result in gusts exceeding 45kts (10% chance). Winds could kick up some BLDU, resulting in temporary VIS reductions. Showers will likely diminish by 02z. Across southern Utah, breezy southwesterly winds are expected this afternoon with mostly clear skies. && .FIRE WEATHER...Isolated showers and thunderstorms capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds to 40-50 mph are expected this afternoon, mainly across the high terrain of central and northern Utah. An increasingly dry airmass continues to build through this weekend, limiting convective development and resulting in very poor to virtually nonexistent overnight humidity recoveries across most of the state. Given already critically dry conditions in place, elevated afternoon southwesterly breezes across southern Utah will result in periods of critical fire weather conditions today and Friday. Winds are expected to become light this weekend as a strong ridge of high pressure develops across the Intermountain West. Temperatures will climb to near or above record values for many locations through the weekend. As the ridge shifts eastward slightly early next week, an influx of mid- level moisture will bring increasing cloud cover that will moderate temperatures slightly and result in a gradual increase in RH across the region. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Extreme Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 6 AM MDT Tuesday for UTZ101>108-114-116-118>121. Extreme Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 6 AM MDT Monday for UTZ115-122-128>131. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ495-496-498. Red Flag Warning from noon Friday to midnight MDT Friday night for UTZ495-496-498. WY...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 9 PM MDT Monday for WYZ021. && $$ PUBLIC...Van Cleave AVIATION...Cunningham FIRE WEATHER...Whitlam For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  801 FXUS61 KCAR 091907 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 307 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Wildfire smoke might be able to mix down to the surface over the north Friday. 2) A chance of thunderstorms this afternoon/evening central/Downeast areas. Isolated thunderstorms central/Downeast areas Friday. 3) Temperatures increase early next week before the next system approaches mid week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Wildfire smoke might be able to mix down to the surface over the north Friday. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A cold front will cross the region Friday. Mixing in the wake of the cold front could allow smoke to reach the surface across northern areas. KEY MESSAGE 2...A chance of thunderstorms this afternoon/evening central/Downeast areas. Isolated thunderstorms central/Downeast areas Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... An initial cold front/pre-frontal trof will stall across central portions of the forecast area this afternoon. Scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible to the south of the stalled boundary, across central/Downeast portions of the forecast area this afternoon through early tonight. Low pressure will cross the region tonight into Friday, drawing the cold front southward. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are possible across central/Downeast portions of the forecast area Friday dependent on how rapidly the front moves south. KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures increase early next week before the next system approaches mid week. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... High pressure builds in behind the departing front this weekend, bringing seasonable temperatures and clear skies. A ridge begins to move into the area on Sunday, increasing temperatures for the first part of the week. Temperatures are expected to be about 5-10 degrees above average through mid week but with only modest humidity. The hottest day is currently expected to be Tuesday where temperatures may reach 90. Another trough approaches mid week which could bring some showers and thunderstorms starting in the north late Monday. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Rest of this afternoon...Occasional MVFR across central/Downeast areas with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots. Tonight...VFR/MVFR. Occasional IFR late. Variable conditions with any patchy fog overnight. Showers. Isolated/scattered thunderstorms through early morning. Light and variable winds. Friday...Variable conditions with any patchy fog early. Isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly across central/Downeast areas. Occasional IFR early. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR. Northwest/north winds 10 to 15 knots. Friday night...Variable conditions with any patchy fog late. Otherwise, VFR. Northwest/north winds 5 to 10 knots. Saturday...VFR. NW wind 5-10 kts, gusts to 20 kt. An afternoon sea breeze could produce S winds 5-10 kt at BHB. Saturday Night-Sunday...VFR. N-NW winds around 5kt. An afternoon sea breeze could produce S winds 5-10 kt at BHB. Sunday Night...VFR. Light and variable winds. Monday-Monday Night...VFR except possible MVFR in any showers/tstms at northern terminals late. SW winds 5 to 15 kts. Tuesday...VFR except for possible MVFR in any showers/tstms at northern terminals in the afternoon. W/SW winds 10 to 15 kts. && .MARINE... Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight through Friday night. Scattered/numerous showers tonight. Isolated/scattered thunderstorms through early morning. Scattered showers Friday. Patchy fog later tonight into Friday night. Winds and seas below small craft criteria Saturday through Monday. Marginal SCA winds and seas on the coastal and outer waters Mondaynight and on all waters Tuesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SM/CN AVIATION...SM/CN  786 FXUS62 KILM 091907 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC Issued by National Weather Service Charleston SC 307 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Heat Advisories issued for the coastal southeast NC and coastal southeast SC counties for Friday. Updated aviation discussion with the issuance of the 18Z TAFS. Updated Key Message 1 and Marine section. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) The heatwave with just isolated convection to dominate during the near term. 2) Relief from the heat is in sight with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms Sat night through Sunday night as a cold frontal system drops south across the area. 3) High risk of rip currents at south-facing beaches Friday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...The heatwave with just isolated convection to dominate during the near term. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The upper ridge axis across the area will keep a lid on the majority of any convection that tries to develop today. Isolated tstorms remain possible along the pinned sea breeze across coastal Northeast SC. Mid to upper 90s will dominate todays highs with 100+ degree readings still possible. Even the coastal locations will observe low to mid 90 degree readings. Some mixing of drier air aloft will result in upper 60s sfc dewpoints inland which will keep heat indices within the advisory criteria. However mid to upper 70s dewpoints will remain across the coastal counties which will result in HIs breaching Extreme Heat Warning thresholds. A similar scenario will play out Friday and Saturday with a noted flattening of the upper ridge. Will still observe Heat Adv thresholds both Fri and Sat but max temps should remain below 100 degrees. This in part to an evolving increasing threat of convection Fri and especially Sat with debris cloudiness likely helping to hold down max temps. Increased convection chances Friday and Saturday could result in showers and thunderstorms that would limit the duration where heat indices reach 105+ degrees. Fairly confident for atleast a couple of hours of 105+ degree heat indices Friday. Thus, Heat Advisories have been issued for the coastal counties where peak HI could reach 105-109F Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Relief from the heat is in sight with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms Sat night through Sunday night as a cold frontal system drops south across the area. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... An upper pattern change starting Sun will help aid in dropping a cold front southward, crossing the area Sun with high pressure slow to fill in from the north thru mid-week next week. The result will be the threat for numerous showers and tstorms late Sat night thru Sun night, even after the cold front drops south of the area. This pattern change involves the upper ridge that has plagued the east for quite some time, that will be shifting to the west-central part of the nation and progged to amplify considerably. With plenty of antecedent heat and moisture, the setup should be quite stormy Sunday and Monday, with some storms possibly on the strong/severe side. Temps will also drop considerably with residual low 90s Sun for highs followed by potentially 80s for highs early next week. KEY MESSAGE 3...High risk of rip currents at south-facing beaches Friday and Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Building southerly swell will lead to a high risk of rip currents for south-facing beaches Friday and Saturday. Continued hot weather and weekend timing will contribute to increased beach attendance - beachgoers should stay out of the water where a high risk of rip currents is in effect. Conditions improve on Sunday as the swell weakens, and currently a moderate rip risk is forecasted for Sunday for south-facing beaches. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The 18z TAF period begins with VFR conditions in place. Overall thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening look quite low, and we will handle any adjustments if anything develops with amendments. The sea breeze has already cleared through KMYR and KCRE, and has been timed into KILM at around 21z. A weak reflection of the sea breeze has been added into KFLO and KLBT in the evening after sunset. Overnight should be quiet and VFR and west winds will pick back up after sunrise tomorrow. Extended Forecast...Generally VFR. Low potential for flight restrictions from fog or low ceilings each morning. Threat for periodic flight restrictions from daily afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms through Sat. More numerous thunderstorms possible Sat night into Mon as a frontal system drops south across the region. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all nearshore waters through tonight. A modest nocturnal surge will impact the waters with high pressure displaced well to the southeast. Frequent gusts to 25 kt appear likely so flags were raised to account for this. For Friday into Friday night, elevated winds will persist as the gradient between an inland trough tightens. Sustained winds of 20-25 kt with gusts nearing 30 kt appear likely. Given there will be a modest break on Friday in winds Friday morning and SCA for tonight was not extended into the day Friday. The need to extend the SCA through the day will be reevaluated later. Winds will diminish a bit for Saturday with relaxed gradient ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will push south Sunday with northeast winds prevailing Sunday night. A modest post frontal surge could push winds to near SCA levels from Cape Fear north. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ105>110. Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Friday for NCZ105>110. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-059. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054>056-058. Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Friday for SCZ054>056-058. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED... KEY MESSAGES... DISCUSSION... AVIATION... MARINE...  768 FXUS66 KSGX 091906 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 1206 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A strong area of high pressure will continue to bring hot weather through Friday. Ever so slight cooling occurs by the weekend into Monday as high pressure moves to the northeast. The high pressure's movement will bring in greater monsoonal moisture for our area by Sunday into at least the latter part of next week. This will bring increased rain and thunderstorm chances to inland areas with greater humidity for the entire region. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... A stronger inversion is seen on this morning's atmospheric sounding, near 13C, which will give the marine layer clouds a tough time to clear the beaches today. The heat continues away from our coastal areas again with highs in the triple digits for our deserts, and well into the 90s for far inland valleys and southern mountain areas. Moderate to high heat risk is again in the forecast through Friday for these areas, so please take breaks and drink plenty of water if you must be outside. High pressure over the region today and Friday will begin to move to the northeast this weekend. This will knock temperatures down a few degrees for areas away from the coast. As the system moves northeast, southeasterly flow around the high will bring greater humidity and monsoonal moisture to the region starting on Sunday. This will bring a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly to the northern mountains in the afternoon. Limiting factors for convection to form are a lack of instability as well as getting the atmosphere moist enough after a very hot dry air mass having been over us this week. Models indicate a continued uptick in moisture by Monday with a better moisture feed pattern aligning over SoCal. The best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be over the mountains and deserts, locally into the far eastern valleys. Models indicate the high moving and expanding into the northern Great Plains by the middle of the week, retreating back across the Intermountain West by the end of next week. Monsoonal moisture looks to continue moving into the region through much of next week around this system, bringing daily chances for showers and thunderstorms across the mountains and deserts. With this flow pattern, Sunday and beyond looks to be humid for all areas of our region as well! As the high retreats closer to the region, temperatures make a rebound by the middle of the week. This will bring moderate to high heat risk for areas away from the coastal regions, including the valleys of Orange and San Diego County. && .AVIATION... 091800Z....Coast/Valleys...Low clouds have cleared inland areas and are clinging to the coast with bases around 1,200ft MSL. There is a 30-40% chance that these low clouds will stick to most coastal areas through the TAF period. Low clouds will begin their march inland after 02-03Z Friday, reaching inland 20 miles by 06-07Z. Bases will be 700-1,100ft MSL with VIS 2-6SM along elevated coastal terrain. Low clouds will start their retreat after 15Z, clearing most coastal locations by 18Z Friday. .Mountains/Deserts...VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Wednesday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Friday for Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for Coachella Valley- San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...APR AVIATION/MARINE...Villafane  137 FXUS61 KALY 091910 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 310 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) There is a marginal risk (Level 1 of 5) for isolated severe thunderstorms in the western Adirondacks this afternoon into early this evening. Primary hazards are strong winds and heavy downpours. 2) Heat and humidity today will result in minor to locally moderate heat-related impacts. Confidence is increasing in another period of above normal temperatures early to mid next week resulting in minor to moderate heat-related impacts. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Afternoon Update: No changes to the current forecast for today. Latest 18z ALY sounding supports enough energy for thunderstorms to develop, but lacking other ingredients needed for severe storms so continued mention of non-severe thunderstorms. Rain showers can develop outside of the southern Adirondacks for this afternoon into the early evening hours tonight. The current forecast is on track, read below for more details. Previous Discussion: A weak pressure trough tracking eastward out of southern Canada into NY this afternoon into the evening combined with weak height falls ahead of broad troughing over the Great Lakes will help initiate isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Latest CAMs continue to show two distinct areas of activity. The first is focused mainly from the Capital District north and west into the southwest Adirondacks associated with the incoming pressure trough and weak height falls. Then, there is a second area mainly in eastern PA and NJ/southern NY that may graze our mid- Hudson Valley and NW CT areas as mid-level shortwaves and a subtle boundary lift northward. Despite the warm/humid conditions, instability is unimpressive generally under 1000 J/kg due to warm temperatures aloft and forecast soundings showing a weak capping inversion. Even still, CAMs show showers and storms initiating mainly near or shortly after 18 UTC through 03 UTC; however, given weak forcing, coverage is isolated/scattered. With deep layer shear ranging 20 to 30kts and 850-300hPa lapse rates 5.5-6C/km, SPC continues to graze our western Adirondack areas in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated severe storms today where the best height falls are expected. Damaging winds and heavy downpours remain the primary hazard from any severe storm. Elsewhere, severe weather is unlikely. KEY MESSAGE 2... Afternoon Update: No changes to the forecast for key message number two. Read previous discussion below for more details. We start off the day with weak ridging overhead as high pressure from yesterday slides off the East Coast. With broad troughing positioned well upstream in the Great Lakes, we will enter into a southwest flow regime supporting weak warm air and moisture advection resulting in temperatures climbing a few degrees higher than yesterday into the mid to upper 80s with probabilistic guidance showing a 40 to 70% chance for valley areas to reach or exceed 90 degrees. Given elevated humidity levels, heat index values or the "feel-like temperatures" will near 95 degrees in these areas; however, given the limited coverage with the HeatRisk mainly in the minor to moderate range, we continue to hold off on heat advisories for today. Regardless, it will still be very warm and humid today so avoid strenuous outdoor activities and drink water even if you are not thirsty. Tomorrow will not be as warm given increased cloud coverage and showers and a few storms as a cold front pushes through the region. After a break from the heat and humidity this weekend, there is a growing consensus among the medium and long range guidance for a period of above normal temperatures returning early to mid next week. This comes as a heat dome in the Central Plains slides eastward resulting in 850hPa isotherms ranging 2 to nearly 3 standard deviations above normal per the ENS next Monday through Wednesday. Latest probabilistic guidance from the NBM shows a 50 to 75% chance for high temperatures to reach or exceed 90 degrees across much of eastern NY and western New England (outside of the high terrain) with even a 25 to 50% chance for reaching or exceeding 95 degrees. There remains some uncertainty with how long the heat will last as there is decent consensus for a trough from southern Canada to track south/eastward into the Northeast late next week. This would help shift the heat out of our area but also increase the chance for severe weather. The SPC Day 4-8 outlook continues to discuss the potential for severe weather for the middle of next week in the Northeast while also outlining uncertainty in the exact location. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 18z Friday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this afternoon with visible satellite showing some agitated cumulus across eastern New York and western New England. Modest instability ahead of an incoming wind shift boundary which could support some isolated to widely scattered showers and potential thunderstorms late this afternoon into this evening. The best chances for thunder fall between 22-04z, so PROB30s were added to the TAFs accordingly. KPOU was the only exception to this, as probabilities for even showers look to be fairly low here. Any thunderstorms that develop look to reduce conditions into at least the MVFR category, though, outside of PSF where MVFR ceilings may linger for a while, VFR conditions should swiftly return after their conclusion. Variable winds this afternoon will ultimately switch to a largely northeast direction by the end of the period with sustained speeds generally under 10kt outside of thunderstorms throughout the duration of the 18z cycle. Outlook... Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...31/05 AVIATION...12  284 FXUS63 KTOP 091911 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 211 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low chance (10-15%) for isolated showers/storms to redevelop this afternoon with better chances (30-60%) coming overnight along/southeast of I-35. - Widely scattered showers/storms will be possible through Saturday night, followed by drying conditions into next week. - Near average temperatures hold through the weekend, then gradually warm through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite imagery and upper air analysis showed zonal flow across much of the central and northern Plains. Minor MVC's were located across northwest MO and southeast KS/SW MO. The 17Z surface map showed a weak cold front extending from central IA, southwest across the northern and western counties of CWA, then southwest into far northwest OK. Today through Saturday night: The weak front will continue to push southeast through the afternoon hours. The RAP is the only CAM showing convection along the front during the late afternoon and early evening hours across the southeast counties of the CWA. The higher instability will be located across southeast KS late this afternoon and the effective shear will be under 20 KTS, so I do not expect any of these storms that may develop across the southeast counties to be severe. Late this afternoon and evening, the CAMs show thunderstorms developing across western KS as easterly low-level winds advect richer moisture west. Most CAMS show a complex of storms developing across southwest and west central KS. These storms wil move east and begin to weaken as they move into the CWA. I cannot rule out some isolated damaging wind gusts through the early morning hours of Friday across southwest counties of the CWA. The NSSL ARW and the 17Z HRRR show these storms remaining more intense as they push east across the southern counties of the CWA between 10Z and 13Z, generally south of a Council Grove to Ottawa line. Most the CWA will remain dry through the night into Friday morning. The surface front will remain stationary across southern KS through Friday and into Saturday. Weak mid-level perturbation in the near zonal mid level flow may provide enough ascent for scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Saturday night. The higher instability will be located south of the CWA. However, if the boundary shifts farther north, into the CWA, then there maybe a few strong to severe thunderstorms. However, The effective shear will be weakening as H5 ridge across the southwestern US builds north and then northeast across the central and northern high Plains. Sunday through Thursday: The center of the upper ridge will shift east and remain stationary across northeast NE/southeast SD. The mid level flow across KS will become easterly. A number of TUTT lows, perturbations, will ride west along the southern periphary of the H5 ridge across south TX. The ascent will cause widespread thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast. The easterly low-level flow across the Plains, combined with deep moist convection along the gulf coast will limit the transport of richer Gulf moisture farther north. So, even though high temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 90s next work week, the surface dewpoints will remain in the 65 to 70 degree range, which will keep heat indicies in the 90 to 100 degree range. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1214 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Expect VFR conditions through most of the next 24 hours. Several of the CAMs keep the showers and thunderstorms south of the terminals overnight and through the Friday morning. I did keep the prob 30 at KMHK, between 8z-12Z Friday. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gargan AVIATION...Gargan  493 FXUS61 KRLX 091916 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 316 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Flood Watch for flash flooding has been issued for much of the forecast area until 8 AM Sunday morning given rounds of showers and storms throughout this period, heavy at times. 18Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms continue at times through the work week and the weekend, with localized flash flooding remaining possible. A Flood Watch for flash flooding has been issued for much of the forecast area until 8 AM Sunday morning. Flooding potential will be greatest on Friday and Saturday. Isolated strong storms with gusty winds remain possible each day during the afternoon/evening hours through Saturday. 2) Drier weather returns Sunday night into the beginning of the new work week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the rest of the work week and the weekend as a very moist airmass remains in place, with a lingering frontal boundary and periodic crossing upper waves providing synoptic scale enhancement at times. Guidance continues to forecast PWATs in the 1.5 to 2.0" range into the weekend, resulting in the potential for localized flash flooding. Scattered showers and storms are ongoing across the region this afternoon as a modest shortwave traverses across the area. Shower/storm motion is fairly progressive, but given rates of 1"+ per hour, localized flash flooding is possible given any training of convection. Activity should begin to steadily dissipate later this evening, with mainly dry conditions overnight, although some showers could move in late tonight across the west and north. A bit of patchy fog is possible across southern/eastern WV depending on clearing. The most widespread rainfall is expected on Friday as a cold front slowly approaches from the north and a more robust shortwave crosses overtop. Motion of showers/storms given H850 flow should be similar to that of today, but with perhaps a bit more training potential. Another crossing shortwave on Saturday combined with the lingering surface boundary will result in more showers and storms, but perhaps a bit further south, across the central/southern CWA. Rainfall on Sunday should mainly be confined to the eastern/southern portion of the CWA as the surface boundary continues to slide southward, with mainly dry weather Sunday night into early next week. Given the locally heavy rainfall yesterday (1-2" in some areas), anticipated additional rounds of rainfall, and after collaboration with neighboring offices, have issued a Flood Watch for flash flooding through 8 AM Sunday for much of the CWA. While organized severe weather is not anticipated, given progged mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 1,000 J/kg each afternoon/evening and modest 0-6km shear, isolated strong storms cannot be ruled out. The hazard associated with any heavy storms would be strong wind gusts. KEY MESSAGE 2... Building high pressure from the north and east following the passage of a cold front late this weekend will result in a much drier Sunday night and start to the new work week. Near seasonable temperatures are expected. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to cause brief MVFR or worse VSBY restrictions and brief MVFR CIGs this afternoon/evening, along with the potential for gusty winds. Mainly dry weather is then anticipated tonight, with the potential for very patchy fog (east/south) and some stratus that could produce MVFR/IFR in spots. Overall, confidence in restrictions tonight is on the lower side. Another round of showers and storms moves into the area Friday morning into the afternoon, with additional MVFR CIG restrictions expected, along with brief MVFR/IFR VSBY. Light west-southwest to southwest flow is expected throughout the TAF period. Brief gusty winds are possible with any thunderstorms. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms today could vary. Restrictions tonight with fog and/or stratus may be worse than currently progged. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H L H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR conditions associated with showers and thunderstorms remain possible through the weekend. IFR conditions are also possible with fog and/or stratus each night and early morning, especially across valley locations. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>034-039-040-515>526. OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ067-075-076-083>087. KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for VAZ003-004. && $$ DISCUSSION...GW AVIATION...GW  690 FXUS65 KTWC 091922 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 1222 PM MST Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through Friday, with an increase in storm chances and coverage over the weekend through early next week. Hot temperatures today, lowering over the weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION...A flat ridge of high pressure will extend from the eastern Pacific across northern Baja and into western Arizona through Friday. Over the weekend, the ridge shifts northeast to north of the Four Corners. The ridge continues to move northeast early to mid next week when it will be centered over the high and central plains. By the following weekend, the upper high shifts westward back into the Four Corners region. With the upper high in close proximity, Heat continues to be a concern today, with high temperatures topping out 4-7 degrees above normal. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through 8 pm MST this evening for much of Pima County, south-central and southeast Pinal County and the Gila River Valley of Graham County. For more information on this product, please refer to PHXNPWTWC. Blended total precipitable water satellite imagery shows PW values currently ranging from 0.80" in the White Mountains to 1.10"-1.25" along the International Border. PW values will remain relatively unchanged through Friday across the eastern half of the forecast area, while the models forecast a gulf surge to bring in higher PW's over the far western deserts. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances today and Friday will be roughly east of a line from Hannagan Meadow to Tucson to Nogales. The steering flow remains northeast to southwest at 10-15 mph. The main threats today will be gusty outflow winds to 45+ mph, blowing dust along Interstate 10 in Cochise County, as well as brief localized heavy rainfall with the strongest storms. The same threats exist on Friday, although wind gust potential diminishes slightly into the 40-45 mph range. This weekend into early next, the steering flow shifts to an east to west direction, as the upper high becomes centered north/northeast of the Four Corners. PW's are forecasted increase into the 1.25"- 1.50" range areawide and flash flooding will become a concern. Thunderstorm chances/coverage increase over the weekend to include all of southeast Arizona. In addition, the mid-level steering flow looks favorable for the potential for some clustering of storms and/or organized convection which could lead to an enhanced severe threat. The active pattern continues into early next week. WPC has a large portion of our forecast area highlighted for a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall Saturday through Monday. High temperatures over the weekend will lower to right around normal, which is the lower 100s in the lower deserts from Tucson westward and in the Gila River Valley, with mid to upper 90s in the lower elevation locations of Santa Cruz and Cochise counties. By early next week, forecasted high temperatures will lower to 1-3 degrees below normal. By mid next week, PW's are forecasted to be in the 1.0"-1.25" range from Tucson eastward and in 1.25"-1.50" range across the lower deserts as the upper high shifts east into the central plains. This pattern will still result in a favorable monsoon flow across southeast Arizona, with the continuation of a daily chance for showers/thunderstorms, as well as a daily risk of isolated severe storms and/or flash flooding. Overall, a favorable monsoon flow has arrived and looks to be in place through at least the following weekend. There will be day to day variability in thunderstorm chances/coverage, along with typical monsoon hazards. && .AVIATION...Valid through 11/00Z. FEW-SCT (locally BKN) clouds at 8k-11k ft AGL and ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/ -TSRA. There is the potential for outflow winds up to 45 kts thru 10/04Z. Clouds and storms diminishing between 10/04Z and 10/17Z. Aft 10/19Z through the end of the forecast period, SCT-BKN clouds at 8k- 11k ft AGL and ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA mainly east of KTUS. Outside of any thunderstorm outflows, SFC wind generally less than 12 kts, favoring a WLY/NWLY direction during the afternoon/early evening hours and variable in direction at other times. The exception will be in the Gila River Valley near KSAD aft 10/19Z thru the end of the valid period, where SFC wind will be 15-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Above normal high temperatures (4-7 degrees) today, with highs lowering to around normal over the upcoming weekend. Gusty northwest winds of 15-20 mph and gusts to around 30 mph in the Gila River Valley Friday afternoon/early evening. Min RH values in the lower elevations in the 13-20 percent range through Friday, increasing 5-10 percent by late in the weekend into early next week. Outside of any thunderstorm outflow winds, 20-foot winds will generally be less than 15 mph into early next week, except in the Gila River Valley on Friday. There will be a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon/evening hours through Friday. Increasing thunderstorm chances and coverage are expected over the weekend through early next week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ501- 502-504>506-509. && $$ Zell Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson  732 FXUS63 KDTX 091924 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 324 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms continue through the evening hours across all of SE Michigan. - Isolated damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall are the primary hazards with the severe threat waning after sunset. - Dry weather and near-normal temperatures settle in for the weekend. - A new heat wave is on schedule for next week (3 consecutive days of highs 90+ degrees). && .DISCUSSION... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed across SE Michigan this afternoon, with varying depths to the convective cores. The deepest cores have topped out around 25.0 kft agl, likely after encountering the subsidence bubble that resides in the 15.0- 20.0 kft layer and an otherwise modest lapse rate environment. Peak wind gusts in these cells have so far remained below severe limits, although a few have come close. Storm motion around 20-30 mph brings the back edge of the storms currently near Lansing through the Detroit Metro area by 7 pm or so. A more organized line of thunderstorms is ongoing across northern Lower Mi right along the surface cold front, moving east-southeast. Convection along this boundary will clip portions of the Saginaw Valley and the Thumb early this evening, although the front itself will be relatively slow-moving. Thermodynamics are favorable for a few storms to become severe this evening, with MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg in place (SPC mesoanalysis) and dewpoints still in the upper 60s-low 70s. Wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph and heavy rainfall with rates in excess of an inch per hour are the main concerns. The frontal zone gradually sinks across Lower Michigan overnight, with models varying in how aggressively this occurs and if any of the convective activity can hang on as instability wanes. Most models settle the surface convergence and moisture axis north of the state line through Friday to renew scattered shower and thunderstorm chances during the day, mainly south of M-59. Similar to today, moist boundary layer conditions result in mid-day destabilization and an early afternoon start to convective initiation. Precipitation loaded cores again look to the be main concern as lapse rates will be modest around 5.5-6.0 C/km. The strongest cells will thus be capable of producing rainfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour and localized downburst winds of 40-60 mph. Surface pressure rises begin Friday night as Canadian high pressure expands south into the Great Lakes, coinciding with a building western CONUS ridge. This releases the front fully south and clears out remaining moisture to bring PWAT values below 1" Saturday. This also effectively steers the next mid-level wave into the southern Ohio Valley, maintaining an overall dry forecast for the weekend. Core of the thermal trough stays over New England, with SE Michigan on the western periphery of the thermal gradient. Northeast flow keeps us within a fairly stagnant thermal advective regime maintaining seasonable highs in the low-mid 80s. Building heat dome over the Intermountain West becomes dislodged by a deep low over northern Canada, causing it to spill around the ridge and into the Great Lakes region early next week. Temperatures climb into the upper 80s Monday and likely into the low 90s Tuesday- Wednesday. This will bring heat indices into the mid-upper 90s. Less confidence in heat potential for the back half of the week however with much of that depending on how the upstream ridge and northern stream low interact. Positioning of the ridge to our west and resultant NW flow pattern do look to put us in a favorable corridor for convection, which will also influence temperatures next week.&& .MARINE... A weak cold front settles southward across Lake Huron this afternoon and evening before stalling or washing out near Lake St. Clair and western Lake Erie overnight into early Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop mainly south of the front during this period, with isolated storms capable of producing wind gusts in excess of 34 kt. Otherwise, ambient light wind will veer from west/southwest to north/northeast as the front passes through. High pressure builds across the northern Great Lakes on Friday which maintains north to northeast wind of 10 to 15 kt. Gusts may briefly reach near 20 kt in the afternoon across southern Lake Huron and Saginaw Bay due to favorable fetch orientation. Lingering showers and storms are possible mainly in the south. The high pressure eases farther south on Saturday and Sunday, maintaining mostly dry conditions with light northeast wind. && .HYDROLOGY... A slow moving cold front settles through southern Lower Michigan tonight serving as the focus for numerous showers and thunderstorms. The greatest coverage and intensity is expected to continue through the evening with a chance of locally heavy rain across the area. Basin average rainfall of a quarter to a half inch is most likely with a chance of near 1 inch in scenarios with greater thunderstorm coverage. The slow movement of the front could also produce more than one round of thunderstorms leading to localized totals greater than 1 inch within a few hours time. This presents minor urban flooding potential along with ponding of water on roads and in other prone areas. Scattered showers and a chance of thunderstorms lingers into Friday, mainly south of M-59, before coming to an end Friday afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 154 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 AVIATION... Convection will be the primary aviation concern for the rest of today and early tonight. Several rounds of thunderstorms have already cropped up during the early afternoon hours. A band of showers continues to track south-southeastward, stretching from the Tri-Cities/Thumb to Lansing. This activity should largely remain lightning-free at MBS, although FNT has a chance to get clipped within the next hour by a strong storm tied to the southern end of the precipitation band. Meanwhile, further south, coverage is lower with loosely organized thundershowers that appear to miss the Metro terminals in the very near-term. Storm count will increase by late afternoon with a few multicell storms hitting the southern sites, plus another round potentially affecting MBS/FNT. This comes as a cold front currently draped over northern Lower Michigan tracks southward. Low confidence exists in the timing of any intercept for a specific terminal today; therefore, TEMPOs will continue to address afternoon and evening convection potential. The front slows over southern Lower late this evening by the time it reaches PTK, but any residual convection should be decaying. Unlikely for any activity to persist into the early morning hours on Friday, but still not impossible. Ceilings broadly start off as VFR, with MVFR closer to the frontal boundary. Some signal exists for fog development Friday morning, so added an entry-level MVFR mention. D21/DTW Convection...Scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening, primarily between 19Z and 02Z. Several rounds of storms and/or VCTS possible before Friday morning. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Medium for thunder this afternoon and evening. * Medium for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet this afternoon and evening. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MV MARINE.......TF HYDROLOGY....MV/BT AVIATION.....KGK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  771 FXUS63 KUNR 091925 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 125 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Another round of passing storms is likely this afternoon and evening for northeast Wyoming and far western and southwestern South Dakota. -Sufficient moisture and shear is in place to support a few strong to severe storms. -Very hot this weekend into early next week with record high temps possible and dangerous heat. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Thursday) Issued at 104 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Latest satellite imagery and radar show mostly clear to clear skies for most of the area. The big exception is the Black Hills and northeast Wyoming, where clouds and a few storm cells have bubbled up in the heat of the day. As of this writing, 1 PM, these storms haven’t lasted long and fade out quickly after maturing. For the rest of this afternoon through tonight, storms will continue to develop through the afternoon and track east then southeast through the evening. Some of these storms have the potential to be severe with the main concern being hail and a secondary concern for strong wind gusts. Overnight though should be quiet with light winds and overnight temps dropping to the upper 50s to lower 60s. For Friday, an upper level high pressure will build and start to shift northward. This will bring a warming trend to the area. Afternoon temps on Friday will reach the 90s for most of the area. Low end chances for short lived, afternoon storms in the Black Hills. The weekend is looking hot with highs at or above 100F for both Saturday and Sunday. Morning temps will be in the 60s to near 70. An Extreme Heat Watch has been issued due to heat index values above 100 degrees for multiple days in a row. With the hot temperatures and low dew points, humidities will be low so fire weather conditions will be elevated. For a quick look at next week, the hot weather will continue through mid week. A potential pattern change would give cooler, but still warmer than normal, temperatures later in the week. As the pattern changes, thunderstorms would be possible. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Friday) Issued At 1125 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Another round of convection is expected today, primarily over the Black Hills and areas east. A PROB30 has been included for KRAP, thunderstorms will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. MVFR/IFR conditions are possible near/under stronger storms. 12Z suite of CAMs had little confidence areas of northeastern WY near KGCC would be impacted by TS, so it was left out. Will be closely monitoring the development of storms today in case the surface boundary slows and pops storms further west than anticipated. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday evening for SDZ001-002-012>014-025>027-029>032-041>043-046- 072>075-077-078. WY...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday evening for WYZ054>056-058>060. && $$ DISCUSSION...GS AVIATION...Schweigert  830 FXUS61 KAKQ 091927 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 327 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the northern half of the area for this afternoon. Marginal risk of severe weather has been added across the Piedmont stretching up towards the MD Eastern Shore for tomorrow. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon especially across the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore. 2) Showers and Thunderstorms continue Friday and Saturday with normal to slightly above average temperatures. 3) Slightly below temps are possible through the first half of the week before warmer temperatures potentially return by the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 327 PM EDT Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon especially across the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore. Afternoon weather analysis shows multiple subtle shortwaves aloft at 700mb. While at the surface, there are multiple boundaries located across the Piedmont stretching down towards southern VA. Showers and thunderstorms have started to initiate along these boundaries as of 2:30pm. These showers and storms have the potential to become severe as a hot and humid atmosphere is in place with temperatures soaring into the upper 80s and low 90s and dew points in the low to middle 70s. In addition, there is some weak shear in place ~30-40kt of bulk-shear across the area with the highest values located across I- 64 north and the Eastern Shore. This is where the Severe Thunderstorm Watch is currently placed. Through the rest of the afternoon and into this evening CAMS show these storms strengthening through time across the north potentially producing a strong to severe wind gust. Will also note there is a risk for the potential of flash flooding across the north given the sub-tropical airmass in place. However, storms will need to train over the same area continuously as storm motion is too fast. Now the storm threat across the south for this afternoon/evening is low but there continues to remain a threat. If storms are able to maintain themselves the atmosphere is primed for a strong to severe wind gust given surface temps are slightly warmer allowing Dcape values nearing ~1000J/kg. However, coverage remains to low for a watch and shear is slightly weaker causing storms to struggle to maintain themselves. By late this evening and early tomorrow morning storms will have moved off shore and skies will begin to clear. As mentioned earlier a sub-tropical airmass is in place across the area. With the persisting cloud cover temps have struggled to reach into the low 90s across the piedmont but with the modest to high dews in place heat indices are in the middle to upper 90s. Across the SE daytime heating and less clouds have allowed temps to reach into the low 90s and heat indices are hovering around the upper 90s and lower 100s across SE VA and around 105 across NC where the Heat Advisory remains in effect through this afternoon. For tonight t he areas that receive rain will have a slightly cooler night with lows in the upper 60s while elsewhere will have lows in the low to middle 70s and potential upper 70s along the coast. KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and Thunderstorms continue Friday and Saturday with normal to slightly above average temperatures. Showers and thunderstorms are possible again Friday but there continues to remain the question of coverage intensity. Model guidance continues to show on subtle shortwaves moving across the area by Friday afternoon/evening. These short-waves will help initiate showers/thunderstorms. However, guidance continues to show downsloping occuring across the area which will helpmix out the dewpoints and give less instability across the area. This will help keep storm coverage more isolated in nature and the severe risk looks to be very marginal if a storm is able to maintain itself. With the downsloping this will, however, allow temps to soar into the low to middle 90s across the area. Heat Indices will be in the upper 90s along and west of I-95 and upper 90s to lower 100s to the east, but will remain below Heat Advisory criteria. For Saturday, showers and thunderstorms chances continue as a cold front pushes through the area. There remains multiple threats for the day with the potential of strong to severe wind gust and locally heavy rainfall with rich moisture and PW values 120- 140% of normal. Saturday will be near normal with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. KEY MESSAGE 3...Slightly below temps are possible through the first half of the week before warmer temperatures potentially return by the end of the week. Models continue to show a drier pattern returning to the area by the Sunday as high pressure returns to the region. The high will also usher in slightly below temperatures with highs nearing the low 80s and lows in the low to middle 60s. By the middle of next week, the recent ensemble guidance shows an upper ridge building over the upper Midwest and pivoting into the Mid- Atlantic. This will potentially allow temps to bounce back into the upper 80s to low 90s. In terms of rain chances, they remain quite low next week as models hint on a drier pattern. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 104 PM EDT Thursday... A mix of VFR and MVFR CIGS have been noted across the terminals early this afternoon. Clouds are struggling to clear across Central and SE VA leading to MVFR CIGS while across NC and MD VFR conditions are prevailing with higher cloud bases and slightly less cloud cover. Showers and thunderstorms have initiated west of the CWA and are forecasted to move across the northern half of the area this afternoon and evening. The best probability is RIC and SBY where PROB30 groups continue for late this aftn/early evening. Any tstms could produce some brief strong wind gusts. Any showers/tstms move offshore later this evening with VFR condition prevailing overnight. Winds remain out of the SSW 5-10kt today inland and SE at the coast, then light out of the SW tonight. Outlook: Chances of aftn/evening showers/tstms by Friday is generally ~30% at RIC and 30-50% at SBY, with 20% or less elsewhere, then 60-70% by Saturday. Trending drier and VFR Sunday into Monday. && .MARINE... As of 327 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Elevated onshore flow develops Sunday into Monday with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible. - There is a moderate risk for rip currents today across all area beaches. - A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for this evening's high tide across portions of the middle Ches Bay and Potomac River. Latest surface depicted light S/SE winds around 10 kt across the local waters. Winds become W this evening into tonight. This diurnal pattern continues Fri with light S/SSE winds during the day becoming SW overnight. A cold front crosses the local waters Sat, allowing winds to become N behind the front. High pressure builds in from the north behind the front early next week. As it does so, the pressure gradient between the high to the north and a weak surface low along a stationary front to the south should allow for a strong enough pressure gradient for a prolonged period of elevated onshore flow from Sun through Mon. During this time, NE/ENE winds of 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt are possible. Additionally, seas build to 4-5 ft with 3-4 ft waves possible across the lower Ches Bay. As such, SCAs may be needed. Winds diminish Mon night as the high builds in with generally benign marine conditions returning. A moderate risk for rip currents continues today across all area beaches with a low risk for rip currents on Fri and Sat. Additionally, nuisance to perhaps locally minor coastal flooding is possible across the middle Ches Bay with this evening's high tide. As such, have issued a Coastal Flood Statement for the Lower MD Eastern Shore bordering the Ches Bay and the counties on the southern side of the Potomac River. && .EQUIPMENT... Repairs have been completed in the KAKQ radar and it is currently in service. However, some additional downtime will be needed this morning for some additional maintenance. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ015>017-031- 032. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJZ/HET AVIATION...AJZ/HET MARINE...RMM/SW EQUIPMENT...  801 FXUS63 KDLH 091926 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 226 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable temperatures continue Friday before a notable warm up through the weekend with increasing humidity. Potentially dangerous heat and humidity is possible Sunday, Monday, and into early next week. - Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday. An isolated thunderstorm Friday afternoon and evening could be strong to severe with brief gusty winds and large hail. A strong storm or two is also possible Saturday afternoon, mainly across northwest Wisconsin. - Minimal precipitation in the extended forecast, with low rain chances limited to mid to late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1252 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Higher pressure sits over the region today with light and variable winds. Temperatures are close to seasonable, with mostly sunny skies. Although, seeing the afternoon cu develop just inland along the lake breeze. Would not rule out a brief shower this afternoon along those breezes. Any activity diminishes this evening. Cannot rule out fog again overnight, as marine fog expands inland, mainly along the South Shore. There is a weak cool front back to our west, associated with an upper level disturbance, that will push slowly eastward tonight and Friday morning. There is a low chance decaying showers or storms will push into the Northland late tonight, but the airmass will be less supportive of storms by that time, with little to no CAPE and lower lapse rates. Tomorrow, the front will arrive and provide a focus for shower and storm development, with 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and around 20kts of bulk shear during the afternoon. Lapse rates are not great tomorrow with increasing mid level heights as an upper ridge approaches. Coverage might not great, but if a storm can get going and sustain itself, large hail will be possible. There is a Marginal risk (1 out of 5) across the Brainerd Lakes region, mainly for large hail. Another weak disturbance arrives Saturday, and could interact with what will likely be a weak frontal boundary sitting across the area. With plenty of instability around with increasing temps and moisture, cannot rule out a few showers or storms, mainly across northwest WI during the afternoon. A strong upper ridge builds across much of the CONUS for early next week, bringing the heat with it. Temperatures will be close to record values Sunday through Tuesday, and 10+ degrees above normal for mid July. Moisture will also hang around, with dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s. Will likely need heat headlines with this combination of temperatures in the 90s and increased moisture for Sunday through Tuesday. Little to no rain is expected under the ridge. The ridge will start to pull back to the west mid week, and could see weak disturbances drop down into the Northland providing low rain chances. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions with light and variable winds expected through the TAF period. There are low chances of light fog early Friday morning, mainly at DLH and HYR. Confidence is too low to include at this time. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 1252 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Winds are generally light and variable this afternoon, but would not rule out a wind gust to 10kts at the head of lake where winds are more persistently out of the northeast. Any stronger winds will diminish this evening. Marine dense fog from this morning has pulled back from the coasts into the open water. While guidance is overzealous with keeping it closer to the coast through this afternoon, the setup does support the fog returning overnight, particularly to the Outer Apostles and the South Shore. A mostly light northeast wind is expected across Western Lake Superior Friday, which will lead to some less-than-one-foot chop in the afternoon, but nothing hazardous. Some rain showers and thunderstorms may be able to develop Friday afternoon and evening, moving from northwest to southeast across the lake. An isolated thunderstorm or two could become strong with brief gusty winds, a quick downpour, small hail, and frequent lightning. Very isolated shower and thunderstorm development is possible again Saturday, but less likely than Friday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1252 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Winds are generally light and variable today, with no precipitation expected. With temperatures warming into the low to mid 80s, expect afternoon RH values to drop into the 25-40% range, with some locally especially dry spots near the Canadian border dropping below 25%. Friday, southerly winds return with some gusts of 12-18mph possible in the afternoon. This should bring with it some improved humidity (afternoon RH 35-50%) and a 20-40% chance for some scattered showers and thunderstorms across north central Minnesota during the afternoon with low chances shifting eastward to the Arrowhead in the early evening. Any accumulations would be fairly light, a couple hundredths to a couple tenths. Temperatures warm through the weekend, but dewpoints in the 60s remain, so afternoon RH should fairly consistently drop into the 35-45% range, with the chance for some particularly dry spots to reach 30%. Some breezier southwest winds are possible Sunday for north-central Minnesota. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HA AVIATION...HA MARINE...HA/Levens FIRE WEATHER...HA/Levens  795 FXUS64 KHGX 091926 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 226 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot conditions will continue today as daytime highs will be in the mid 90s with heat indices reaching the triple digits. - Lower chances of rain today. Isolated to scattered seabreeze showers and thunderstorms are possible closer to the coast. - Deep Gulf moisture will arrive Friday morning causing rain chances to increase Friday and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A drier airmass prevails today as shown by Water Vapor and the Blended Total Precip Water satellite imagery. Dry air (particularly inland) and mid-level stability are effectively capping most convective development this afternoon. However, cannot rule out isolated to scattered, sea breeze showers and storms mainly along and south of I-10 through early this evening. Heading into Friday, the pattern begins to shift. As the ridge of high pressure amplifies over the Rockies and Plains, a weak mid- level trough will track westward across the western Gulf, sliding along the southern TX coast. This setup will usher in a deep surge of tropical moisture across the region, with PW values in the 1.9- 2.1 inch range. This will result in widely scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend, with rain and storms developing along the coast late at night into the morning. Then spreading inland late morning through the afternoon. As Southeast TX sits on the southern periphery of the broad high pressure ridge, the region will remain vulnerable to shortwaves/vorticity maxes aloft tracking westward underneath the ridge. Therefore, expect a return to a more active, mostly diurnally-driven, convective period. This wet pattern will settle in for the weekend and persist through at least the first half of next week. Have PoPs around 40 to 70% through this period. Localized heavy downpours and strong gusty winds will be possible with any stronger storms. Temperatures will generally remain in the low to mid 90s during the day, and will be warm and muggy at night with overnight lows in the upper 70s to low 80s. Peak heat indices in the triple digits (100- 107F) can be expected each afternoon. A slight relief from the heat will be possible early next week as cloud cover and rain chances could potentially result in high temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s, which is a few degrees below normal for this time of year. JM && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Latest satellite and radar imagery show generally quiet conditions across the forecast area, with VFR prevailing at most TAF sites. Patchy fog is on going across the region with KCXO briefly dropping down to IFR conditions. A couple of ASOS stations across the region show MVFR conditions as well. That said, most sites around the region remain at or above 7 mils this morning. Still kept the possibility for some visibilities down to 6 miles for a few sites this morning, with KCXO reflecting MVFR conditions. A SAL intrusion is expected today, which should put a lid on shower and thunderstorm potential this afternoon and evening. However, some isolated showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze can not be ruled out. Winds look to remain light to gentle out of the SW/S through tonight. Convective Allowing Models are starting to show a cloud deck building in towards the end of IAH's 12z TAF period. It is too early to tell if cigs will support MVFR conditions, but an increase in sky conditions appears likely over the next couple of TAF cycles. && .MARINE... Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas will continue tonight, and persist well into the upcoming week. Seas will generally remain 1-3 ft. Winds and seas will occasionally increase/build Friday into the weekend, resulting in periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions. Rain and storm chances will be on the increase Friday into the weekend, with the best chances overnight through early afternoons. Elevated winds and seas will be possible near any stronger storms. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 77 95 78 95 / 10 30 10 30 Houston (IAH) 79 94 79 94 / 10 30 20 60 Galveston (GLS) 84 90 85 90 / 20 50 30 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...Williams MARINE...JM  008 FXUS63 KGLD 091930 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 130 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs largely in the 90s are expected for the rest of the week. - Storm chances, potentially severe, continue through Friday. - Increasing signal for a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions starting this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 128 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Overview: Modest westerly flow aloft will persist over the Tri- State Area, on the northeast periphery of an upper level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest. Light ESE-SE flow will prevail in the lower levels (surface to 850 mb), on the eastern periphery of a broad, diurnally waxing/waning lee trough in CO. Today-Tonight: Expect highs in the upper 80's to lower 90's and overnight lows in the mid 50's to mid 60's, coolest in eastern CO. Guidance suggests that light upslope flow and modest DPVA associated with small amplitude disturbances in westerly flow aloft will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the Colorado Front Range, Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide (west of a line from Limon to Akron, CO and Sidney, NE) by 2-4 pm MDT this afternoon, and that said activity will grow upscale into clusters over eastern CO (~5-6 pm MDT) and ultimately evolve into a linear mesoscale convective system /MCS/ that sweeps eastward across northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska late this afternoon and evening (~6-10 pm MDT). Damaging winds are expected to be the primary severe weather hazard, though a few instances of large hail are possible with any isolated/discrete storms during initial development in CO late this afternoon. Despite weak low-level flow and modest mid-level flow, significant and/or widespread damaging wind is possible if linear organization results in the development of a consolidated cold pool (low confidence worst case scenario). Fri-Fri night: With relatively little change in the synoptic pattern, sensible weather conditions will largely be a function of mesoscale phenomena, namely.. where, and to what degree/extent, environmental conditions are altered by convection this evening and early Fri morning. In a stagnant synoptic pattern with weak low-level flow, convective overturning/stabilization in the wake of an MCS tends to decrease convective potential (in the same area) the following day. In this case, high resolution guidance suggests that a mesoscale high in the wake of the aforementioned MCS will shunt diurnal thunderstorm development southward to the Raton Mesa, southeast CO and southwest KS.. south of Highway 40. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 107 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Friday appears to be the last in a series of days with diurnally driven thunderstorms developing and persisting through the evening hours. Confidence in this time period is somewhat lower than normal since it will strongly depend on how thunderstorms develop tonight and tomorrow night. That being said, general pattern appears to hold frontal zone to the south of area, with generally easterly upslope flow throughout the day. Best large scale forcing for ascent appears to just skirt the CWA south of Interstate 70 as weak H7-H5 low moves into SW Kansas. As mentioned before, confidence in details is low at this point and time but overall pattern supports another round of thunderstorms developing over higher terrain and moving to the east southeast in the evening hours. Directional shear will be better than previous days, although overall wind speeds aloft are on the weaker side Friday will likely provide the best shear profiles for organized storms. Similar to the past few days, highest threat will be for organized areas of damaging winds through the evening followed bythreat for hail in the 1" to 1.75" range. Blowing dust threat will depend greatly on how and where precipitation falls on Thursday and morning cloud cover. Confidence in these specifics are very low at this point however, resulting in low confidence in dust threat. Region will move into a warm and dry pattern as strong H5 597 dm ridge develops and builds into the northern plains through the start of the week. While there is a small threat for precipitation/thunderstorms on periphery of the H5 ridge Saturday this potential drops off rapidly through the rest of the period as subsidence under strong ridge. With probabilities of this magnitude of ridging fairly high based on ensemble probabilities, confidence in hot and overall dry weather is high. With temperatures climbing into the 90s, possibly upper 90s by mid week, the primary expected impacts. Right now, dewpoints should remain high enough to prevent critical fire weather conditions, but will have to keep a close eye on heat indices through the start of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1128 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Sub-VFR conditions and strong westerly winds associated with thunderstorms are possible at both terminals late this afternoon and evening, mainly between 00-06Z. Patchy MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled-out ~09-15Z Fri morning (similar to this morning). VFR conditions will otherwise rule through the TAF period. ESE to SE winds at 7-14 knots this afternoon and evening will become light and variable overnight (in the wake of storms) and remain light/variable through the rest of the 18Z TAF period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...JRM AVIATION...Vincent  986 FXUS64 KAMA 091930 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 230 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 -Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening, mainly for the northern combined Panhandles. -Severe thunderstorm chances return for Friday afternoon and evening, for the majority of the Panhandles. -Thunderstorm chances continue through weekend before drying out next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Latest 18Z satellite and surface obs shows a very subtle H500 wave just ahead of the main cold front, which is generating some showers for the northeastern Panhandles. Further west, a more notable mid level disturbance moving east within the anti-cyclonic flow regime is generating thunderstorms off the high terrain in New Mexico. The northern Panhandles, based off the current trajectory of the thunderstorm development, and the close proximity to main cold front in Kansas, will have the highest probabilities (30-45%) of seeing any rainfall through this evening. Overall effective shear and better vorticity advection downstream of good (+) H700-500 theta-e axis should also keep the higher chances of severe thunderstorms north of the Panhandles. However, any residual convection from the high terrain that make the trip into the Panhandles later today will move into 1200-1400 J/Kg of DCAPE (support by 18Z AMA RAOB data), which could result in some severe level wind gusts to watch closely. Residual showers and low topped storms should dissipate going through the overnight hours tonight. For Friday, the main H500 high will shift more northwest towards the Four Corners region and compress in size. This will introduce good H500 NW steering flow and result in good shear vorticity advection into the Panhandles Friday afternoon into Friday evening. This should result in more organized and robust convection quickly entering the Panhandles from more established NW flow. Early on, more established updrafts in stronger storms where some effective shear is present, we could see large hail perhaps slightly bigger than quarters. What is more higher probs of the main hazard being is damaging winds gusts over 70 mph at times with the DCAPE values over 1500 J/kg. Limited shear the further southeast from the TX/NM stateline should result in not having longevity in sfc based storm tracks before an outflow/cold pool propagates ahead of the main activity. But nonetheless, most of the combined Panhandles will have some chance of a severe thunderstorm. High temperatures on Friday will range from the lower 90s in the NW Panhandles to 100-102 in the far southern TX Panhandle. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 H500 northerly to eventually northeasterly flow will continue through the weekend with diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms along the periphery of the H500 high. Strong wind gusts are possible with more robust storms. By next week, the main high will set up in the central Plains. This should bring large scale UL subsidence to the Panhandles as seen by the latest global model data. With the high centered further north, should keep overall temperatures near average for mid July, with no triple digit heat expected at this time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions are expected throughout the majority of the 18Z TAF period. The only exception would be the potential for TS conditions at KDHT/KGUY between 00Z and 06Z. VCTS conditions noted for KDHT, with a PROB30 group also for KGUY between 00-03Z for TS potential. VFR conditions should return by 06Z and remainthroughout the rest of the TAF period. Winds will be westerly, backing to southerly and then southeasterly/easterly towards the end of the TAF period at 10-20 kts. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...29  056 FXUS61 KLWX 091931 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 331 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 474 has been issued for most of the area until 10 PM, although storms are likely to exit the area sooner than that. Flood Watch was expanded westward to include all of northern Maryland and portions of eastern West Virginia. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Anne Arundel County from 11 PM tonight through 5 AM Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Thunderstorms, some of which may produce damaging winds and heavy rain, are possible through Friday. - 2) Cooler & drier conditions at the start of next week, followed by an increase in heat & humidity midweek. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Thunderstorms, some of which may produce damaging winds and heavy rain, are possible through Friday. Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage and intensity as they move east into a higher instability axis. Locally damaging winds, isolated flash flooding, and frequent lightning are the main threats. Activity should move east of the Chesapeake Bay by 8 PM, if not sooner. It should remain quiet overnight with patchy fog, especially in areas that saw rain this afternoon. Some degree of convective threat likely continues into Friday given ample moisture in the atmosphere. However, a primarily westerly flow often is known to negate the development of more organized thunderstorm activity. Friday does mark the warmest day of the remainder of the week with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Depending on how much rainfall occurs during the previous day, some level of flash flood risk may take place again on Friday afternoon/evening, particularly south of I-66. KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler & drier conditions at the start of next week, followed by an increase in heat & humidity midweek. Broad upper-level ridging will continue to build over the Desert Southwest and Rockies on Monday, allowing for continued high pressure to settle over the area on Monday. Temperatures continue to stay in the low-to-mid 80s at the start of the work week before steadily rising into midweek as heights continue to build. Temperatures could return to the 90s by Wednesday, with humidity increasing somewhat as dewpoints go from the lower to upper 60s & low 70s as temperatures rise. To the north, a deep upper-level trough begins to form over eastern Canada Thursday going into Friday. This could introduce opportunities for showers & thunderstorms towards the end of the week as this system continues to track eastward. While probability outlooks could still change significantly being 7 days out, early ML & AI outlooks have currently identified a 15%-30% probability for severe weather occurrence associated with this system. As details on this system become more defined, will have to continue to monitor synoptic fluctuations in model guidance to help identify any hazards associated with this system in the coming days. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected through 7 PM. Have maintained a TEMPO group in the 3 to 7 PM timeframe with lesser chances for Charlottesville. Restrictions are likely as these storms roll through, some of which could be severe in nature. In the wake of these storms, initial southerly winds turn more southwest to westerly tonight. Low ceilings are again possible, particularly in areas which saw heavier rainfall. Westerly winds on Friday may offset some of the convective threat on Friday. However, some afternoon to evening restrictions will again be possible. A cold front moves through on Saturday which yields a shift to northwesterly winds. These eventually turn more easterly on Sunday intoMonday as the boundary slides farther to the south. Despite some weekend shower chances, mainly VFR conditions are expected. VFR conditions are anticipated across terminals between Monday and Tuesday. Light easterly winds shift southwesterly Tuesday. && .MARINE... With summertime gradients in place, any potential for Small Craft Advisories appears low through the weekend and into early next week. Any hazardous conditions over the waterways will again be tied to thunderstorms, lightning, and any gust fronts/outflows. Special Marine Warnings may be needed for this afternoon and evening as strong convection pushes eastward to the I-95 metro areas. While westerly winds should offset some of Friday's convective threat, some storms could impact the waters during the core heating hours. Winds remain below SCA thresholds Monday and Tuesday. Easterly winds between 5-10 knots shift south to southwest on Tuesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Anomalies are around 1 to 1.25 feet will continue through tonight as winds remain southerly. This will likely result in near minor flooding of vulnerable shoreline through the end of the week. Annapolis is most likely to reach the minor flood threshold, and a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for tonight's high tide. A gradual decline in water levels is expected this weekend. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for DCZ001. MD...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ004>006-008- 011-013-014-503>508. Flood Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ003-501-502-509- 510. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Friday for MDZ014. VA...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for VAZ027-029>031- 040-053-054-501-505>507-526-527. Flood Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ028. WV...Flood Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for WVZ050>053-055- 501>504. MARINE...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530. && $$ DISCUSSION...LFR/BRO/SRT AVIATION...LFR/BRO/SRT MARINE...LFR/BRO/SRT  109 FXUS65 KMSO 091934 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 134 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Warmest temperatures of the summer this weekend through early next week. Elevated heat risk for those sensitive to heat, especially those without cooling/hydration. - Low relative humidity and increased west winds will result in elevated fire weather concerns on Saturday and Sunday, especially in southwest Montana. High pressure will build across western Montana and north central Idaho beginning today into the weekend. Thunderstorm activity will generally decrease today, with the only notable chances confined to the southern tip of Lemhi County in Idaho. By Friday evening, atmospheric conditions will become more unstable, bringing another round of potential thunderstorms. These storms will mainly focus over southwest Montana and Lemhi County, carrying the threat of strong, gusty winds between 40 and 50 mph. One change to the forecast: Added a slight chance for night-time thunderstorms Friday night from north-central Idaho into northwest Montana. Models are depicting just enough elevated moisture and instability with a wave that could trigger storms. Multiple ensemble members depict this as well. The main impacts would be lightning and gusty outflow. Temperatures will surge on Saturday and remain unseasonably hot into early next week. Valleys across western Montana can expect daytime highs in the 90s, while lower elevation areas like Hells Canyon and the lower Salmon River valleys will likely reach triple digits. Forecast models indicate a high confidence (70 percent) of moderate heat impacts for valleys along and east of Highway 93, meaning individuals sensitive to heat may be adversely affected. There is also a 30 percent chance of major heat impacts that could affect anyone lacking adequate cooling and hydration. In addition to the heat, strong upper-level winds combining with low daytime humidity will create near-critical fire weather conditions in southwest Montana and Lemhi County this Saturday and Sunday. For those recreating outdoors this weekend, please prioritize safety: stay consistently hydrated, take frequent breaks in the shade, avoid strenuous activities during peak afternoon heating, and practice extreme caution to prevent any sparks or fire starts in these dry, windy conditions. We issued heat advisories for the Hells Canyon, Salmon River Valley, Lowell to Moose Creek, and lower valleys of Lemhi County into the weekend. These are the areas that would see the hottest temperatures possibly getting up to 107 degrees. Also night-time temperatures may not recover very well, only in the 60s. The reason for not issuing heat advisories for other locations is the fact that there is a low threat for record highs being matched and there will be a decent cooldown each night. The forecast has been running too warm at night so we have trimmed the forecast down to account for that bias. Looking at climatology, we need the heat ridge to be more centered over the western U.S. and over our region, rather than centered over the Northern Plains, to realize a scenario with hotter temperatures.(i.e. Butte getting to 95 degrees or hotter). Another potential impact from the large ridge setting up east of us is that the flow will start to bring up wildfire smoke from the Four Corners region by Sunday into Monday. The latest experimental smoke model, RRFS-SD model, is starting to depict that. We've already noticed an increase of haze in the last several days, so by Monday there may be an uptick the amount of haze lingering in the mountains. A significant change is expected next week as a surge of moisture moves into the region from the south. This will elevate the risk for widespread, rain-producing thunderstorms across western Montana and north-central Idaho by midweek, offering a stark contrast to the dry and windy weekend conditions. Initially, this moisture will arrive in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Because the air near the surface will still be very dry, the first storms that develop early next week may produce very little rainfall at the ground but will be highly capable of generating strong, erratic outflow winds and lightning. && .AVIATION...High pressure building across western Montana and north-central Idaho will maintain predominantly VFR conditions across regional terminals through the forecast period. For this afternoon, surface winds will generally prevail from the west to northwest at 5 to 10 knots, with localized gusts up to 20 knots expected, particularly across western Montana terminals. Thunderstorm activity today will be minimal, with any isolated convective development restricted to the far southern portions of Lemhi County. On Friday, increasing atmospheric instability by the evening hours will introduce a renewed risk of thunderstorms. Convective activity will remain primarily focused over southwest Montana and Lemhi County (KBTM and KSMN), with any developing storms capable of producing strong, erratic outflow winds gusting between 35 and 45 knots. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...ID...Heat Advisory from noon MDT /11 AM PDT/ Saturday to 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/ Sunday for Eastern Lemhi County...Southern Clearwater Mountains...Western Lemhi County. Heat Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Hells Canyon/Salmon River Region. && $$  186 FXUS63 KLOT 091937 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 237 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A threat for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms through this evening. - Mainly dry and increasingly warm weather this weekend onward, though it will be cooler lakeside until later next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 This Afternoon: A weak remnant MCV (mesoscale convective vortex) has slowly pushed across the area through early this afternoon. It appears that the timing of the disturbance was early enough to curtail stronger destabilization from a combination of thicker cloud cover and already marginal mid-level lapse rates of <6C/km. Forcing on the backside of the MCV, subtle confluence, and a bit better destabilization south of I-80 recently enabled an uptick in coverage of smaller footprint pulse type convection. As the forcing from the MCV pushes farther east, a somewhat subsident regime may result in the current activity struggling for a bit. Farther north, the aforementioned more subsident regime as well as meager low-level convergence from close to due westerly boundary winds will probably keep convective coverage at a minimum for a few hours. Late Today through Tonight: Based on upstream radar presentation as of this writing, a weak approaching cold front should provide enough lift for a modest uptick in showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Winds shifting onshore near the lake from an early evening lake breeze could plausibly provide modestly a modestly enhanced focus. However, the weakly forced, weak deep layer shear, and modest mid-level lapse rate environment does not appear that it will be conducive to much in the way of storm organization. Earlier concerns of localized flash flooding appear to be trending downward even if a few storms materialize into this evening, as they will likely continue to be smaller footprint and pulse-type (shorter-lived). Favorable moisture parameters and high freezing levels would thus be offset by limited areal coverage and duration of any heavy rainfall. If a more focused corridor of showers and embedded storms does not materialize by this evening, with a likely diurnal component to the activity, the flood threat for the rest of the night should be limited. Overnight into early Friday as the cold front sags south, light winds and low dew point spreads may support fog development and localized visibility below 1 mile. Maintained areas of fog mention closer to the lake in northeast Illinois and far northwest Indiana, though confidence isn't all that high. Friday Onward: The sagging front will force the instability axis southward Friday and Saturday, and with it the threat for any showers and storms. Have confined chance PoPs to near and south of the Kankakee River Friday afternoon and evening and then primarily south of US-24 on Saturday afternoon (which may be too generous). For the rest of the area, a couple pleasant days with more comfortable humidity levels, and seasonably warm temperatures in the lower to mid 80s are in store. Synoptic onshore flow from surface high pressure settling over the Great Lakes will keep highs near the lake in the mid 70s to around 80F. For Sunday into early to mid next workweek, an expansive and anomalously strong/warm mid-level ridge will establish itself from the central and northern Plains to the Midwest. Increasingly warm 850 to 925 mb temps underneath the influence of the ridge will result in a warming trend away from the lake. Meanwhile, the surface high pressure will remain in place until midweek or thereabouts, resulting in daily lake breezes and associated lake cooling. In addition, dew points and thus humidity levels will be held in check vs. our previous very warm to hot stretch. The ridge may become sufficiently flattened sometime later next week for a return of convective chances. Until then, a several day stretch of continued drying will help river and streams to return back to more typical flows. Castro && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Aviation forecast concerns for the 18Z TAFs: - Scattered convective SHRA/isolated TSRA likely across terminals especially late afternoon into early/mid evening. IFR/low-MVFR vis possible in brief heavy rain. - MVFR ceilings develop late tonight with a period of IFR possible toward daybreak. Fog also possible from Chicago Lake Michigan shore west/northwest with MVFR/IFR vis possible. Improvement to VFR expected around midday Friday. - Weak cold frontal passage this evening will shift winds to the N/NE. NE winds persist through Friday. A weak mid-level circulation (remnant MCV from overnight convection to our west) was tracking east across northern IL at midday, atop a moist low-level air mass ahead of a weak, slowly- approaching cold front. Scattered showers have been percolating near and ahead of the weak MCV, though extensive cloud cover and weak lapse rates have limited the depth of this convection and no lightning has been observed near the terminals at this time. Shower and eventually isolated thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase somewhat during the mid-late afternoon hours however, as a low-amplitude mid-level wave and the weak cold front approach during our peak diurnal warmth. Thus the greatest TSRA potential for the terminals looks to be from late this afternoon into early this evening, though coverage will likely remain only widely scattered. Have trimmed TS mention to VC/PROB30 based on these expectations. Scattered SHRA may persist into the overnight hours, as the weak cold front eventually moves slowly through the area. Modest west-southwest winds are expected to turn north-northeasterly behind the front overnight, and remain north-northeast through the day Friday. High-res guidance continues to support fairly extensive MVFR ceilings after midnight behind the front, which may linger as late as midday Friday. Guidance also indicates the potential for a period of IFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR fog from the IL Lake Michigan shore north and west during the predawn hours, and have included a tempo mention for this. While visibility should improve a few hours after sunrise, ceiling improvement to VFR may not occur until midday. Ratzer && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  321 FXUS63 KMPX 091940 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 240 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered diurnal storms are expected Friday and Friday evening across Minnesota. Otherwise, very little chances for precip through the middle of next week. - A long duration heat wave moves in this weekend and continues through most of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 It is a pleasant day across the region with warm temperatures near 80, light winds, mostly sunny skies, and low humidity. Some of the more developed CU have formed a few showers across southeast MN and central WI, but these are southeast of the area. Other small clusters of storms exist across ND and the Black Hills of SD - a preview of what is to come Friday across MN with the approach of a weakening cold front. Heights Friday will begin rising steadily. While this generally is not favorable for convection, the cold front and an uncapped 2000-3000 J/kg of SBCAPE will develop during the afternoon across western MN. Scattered thunderstorms are possible during that time. Winds throughout the column will be light, but enough veering should exist to squeeze out 20-30 kts of bulk shear. This may allow one or two storms to become more vigorous and the strongest updrafts could contain some hail. Activity should diminish quickly after sunset and likely before reaching eastern MN and WI. The front will wash out Saturday as the ridge continues to build over the Rockies. H5 heights will already be approaching 600 dam over Wyoming by Sunday morning. The ridge will center itself farther east over the northern Plains and/and Upper Midwest early next week while potentially strengthening to an incredible 601-602 dam. The 00Z ECMWF mean heights break all- time records at 700, 500, and 200 mb across MN and the eastern Dakotas Sunday through Tuesday - signaling a truly historic event. As the previous shift noted, the max observed 500 mb height in our local upper air record is 598 dam. Upper air features alone, this would mean an incredibly intense heat wave. However, lower level features tell a different story. This dichotomy exists due to surface high pressure extending from southeastern Canada and New England westward to the Mid Missouri Valley. A notable weakness in thermal profiles will be present within this corridor. Low level trajectories on Monday show our air mass originating from central/eastern IA and northern MO on Sunday, which is from the surface high. A much more impressive low level air mass will exist over eastern MT and the Dakotas where trajectories are removed from the surface high's influence. Extreme Heat Watches are already in place there. 925 mb temps locally will range from +25C to +29C early next week, signaling highs in the low to mid 90s. In addition, moisture advection from the Gulf will be cut off due to the expansive surface high to our south, so all of the humidity will be locally produced via evapotranspiration. Instead of the mid to upper 70s dew points of a couple weeks ago, we'll likely be in the 65 to 70 degree range this time. So despite the record- breaking ridge overhead, the surface high to the south will likely spare us of a dangerous and historic heat wave, although it will still be hot and humid. Unless the humidity and/or temperatures trend warmer than what is currently predicted, we may be able to escape Extreme Heat Warnings with this event. Thunderstorm chances are nearly zero through Tuesday. Confidence drops off mid to late week as the ridge breaks down and cold fronts begin to advance into the northern U.S. again. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Stubborn MVFR cigs are finally clearing at KMKT and KEAU. Diurnal Cu have developed with VFR cigs generally expected through the end of the period. There is a non zero chance for a few scattered showers to develop across western Minnesota late tonight, but confidence is too low to include that at this time. We may see some patchy fog develop thanks to the light/calm winds overnight and have added that to KMKT and our Wisconsin sites. KEAU would have the greatest chance of seeing IFR conditions develop. High clouds move in tomorrow morning with winds slowly picking up out of the southeast by the afternoon. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. MON...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Borghoff AVIATION...Dye  400 FXUS62 KTAE 091942 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 342 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Rain chances will remain low through Friday night but an increase in convective coverage is expected over the weekend with widespread coverage early next week. When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors! - Above average temperatures are expected through Saturday. Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in air- conditioned places, wear light clothing, and know the signs of heat stress and illnesses. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Friday) Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Below normal rain chances will be in place through this period as high pressure dominates. While temperatures will remain above normal, heat indices will not reach advisory levels. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The Atlantic ridge will weaken across the region allowing convective coverage to return to normal on Saturday. A positively-tilted upper level trough and attendant surface front will settle into and eventually stall over the Southeast. This will tap into a very moist air mass with PWATs well over 2 inches to generate widespread showers and storms from Sunday through Tuesday. A couple inches of rain can be expected in many areas during this period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Showers and storms have blossomed along Florida's sea breeze and is pushing north to northeast. Have refined some of the timing for the PROB30s to better account for ongoing convection and movement. Most of the showers and storms wane near sunset with VFR conditions anticipated tonight into Friday morning. There are some indications of another round of showers/storms just offshore from KECP, so have included VCSH for Friday morning there to highlight that potential as confidence wasn't high enough to include any mention of thunder at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The summertime Atlantic ridge axis will shift north on Friday and Saturday bringing lighter and more variable winds. After a brief break in early morning convection tonight, a wetter pattern will begin to develop over the weekend and with multiple days of widespread shower and storm activity expected early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 There are little to no fire weather concerns in sight, typical of mid summer. Then chances for widespread wetting rain will increase over the weekend and be particularly high early next week. Fog Concerns and Other Remarks...No widespread fog is expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Lower than normal rainfall chances appear likely through the end of the work week before coverage increases over the weekend and through early next week. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 2.5 inches are forecast through early next week. However, flooding is not expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 76 96 75 96 / 10 10 10 50 Panama City 81 92 80 93 / 10 10 10 20 Dothan 75 95 75 95 / 10 20 10 40 Albany 75 96 75 96 / 10 10 10 20 Valdosta 76 97 75 97 / 10 0 10 20 Cross City 76 97 76 97 / 0 10 10 40 Apalachicola 80 91 79 91 / 0 10 10 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wool LONG TERM....Wool AVIATION...Reese MARINE...Wool FIRE WEATHER...Wool HYDROLOGY...Wool  478 FXUS63 KJKL 091944 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 344 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms continue at times into the weekend. - Heavy rainfall is possible through the first half of this weekend, especially Friday and Saturday, with a threat of isolated to scattered flash flooding. - A Flood Watch is in effect for increased flash flood potential across the area through early Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 344 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026 At 19Z, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to work across the area, with periods of heavy rain occurring within them. These pop-up showers and storms will continue over the next few hours, disipating with the loss of diurnal heating near or around sunset. Temperatures around the area are generally in the mid 80s where convection hasn't tampered with the air, otherwise areas that have seen rain/storms sit in the upper 70s to low 80s. Temperatures are expected to cool into the mid to upper 60s. Patchy valley fog may develop late this evening before mixing out Friday morning. Surface high pressure remains just east of the state, with a shortwave over the Ozarks embedded within a positively tilted trough. A surface cold front also extends across Western potions of the Ohio Valley, extending back towards the Central Plains. As the embedded shortwave continues to approach Kentucky through this evening, 500- mb heights are expected to fall in advance of it. After a lull in shower and storm activity this evening, chances increase in coverage and intensity. As high pressure sinks south of the area, broad flow around it will continue transporting moisture rich air from southwest of the forecast area. During the day Friday, model PWATs increase across the area, close to if not exceeding 2 inches in places. These values fall within the 90th percentile of climatological normals when looking at ECMWF Mean PWATs. Showers and thunderstorms in this environment have the potential to produce gusty winds, and locally heavy or torrential rainfall which could lead to instances of flash flooding. The WPC continues to have the area under a slight risk for excessive rainfall exceeding local flash flood guidance. The probability of seeing enough rainfall to exceed flash flood guidance remains across the Upper Cumberland River Basin (25% chance). Later Friday afternoon and evening high pressure over SW CONUS will build in coverage and intensity. With the high amplitude ridge developing, the positively shortwave trough will propagate southeastward towards the KY-TN areas of the Ohio Valley. Temperatures Friday are expected to warm into the lower 80s before cooling into the upper 60s Friday evening. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 249 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026 The period begins with a westerly mid-level jet stream across the Ohio River Valley, including eastern Kentucky, ahead of a mid-level low/trough and stacked surface low over northeastern Missouri and western Illinois, with this feature only moving to the Lower Ohio River Valley by Sunday morning as the circulation becomes detached from the upper flow and becomes trapped by a massive upper high that develops across the western and northern CONUS late this weekend into next week. With continued warm advection and a quasi-stationary front across the area, a risk for flash flooding with the potential for rounds of heavy rain will remain through much of Saturday into Saturday night. Models strengthen this upper high to ~602-dm centered somewhere over the MO Valley through early next week before it begins to gradually weaken in place through the middle of next week. Most models are in agreement in suppressing the remnants of the trapped mid-level low and associated warm advection southward with time, with a gradual diminishing of PoPs and Sky cover from north to south from the second half of this weekend through the middle of next week as drier northeasterly mid-level flow advects in from the northeast. A marginal flash flood threat may persist across far southern/southeastern parts of the forecast area into Sunday, where better instability and moisture may linger along with relatively weak flow aloft supporting slow storm motions. The gradual drying and clearing trend through the period will also support an increasing trend for high temperatures through the period, but with highs still within a few degrees of normal in the mid to upper 80s by the end of the period, with lows in the 60s each morning. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026 Scattered pop-up showers and thunderstorms have started this afternoon and rounds of these showers and storms are expected through this afternoon and evening. There may be a breif lull for a few hours between 00Z and 06Z before more rounds work into the area from the west. Showers and storms will increase in coverage through Friday morning. With the scattered nature of these showers and storms and a degree of uncertainty, PROB30 groups were used through the TAF period. MVFR conditions will be likely with occasional IFR conditions in and around storms. Outside of any storm, winds will be fairly light and occasionally variable or out of the southwest. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ SHORT TERM...GINNICK LONG TERM...CMC AVIATION...GINNICK  659 FXUS63 KGLD 091945 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 145 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs largely in the 90s are expected for the rest of the week. - Storm chances, potentially severe, continue through Friday. - Increasing signal for a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions starting this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 128 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Overview: Modest westerly flow aloft will persist over the Tri- State Area, on the northeast periphery of an upper level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest. Light ESE-SE flow will prevail in the lower levels (surface to 850 mb), on the eastern periphery of a broad, diurnally waxing/waning lee trough in CO. Today-Tonight: Expect highs in the upper 80's to lower 90's and overnight lows in the mid 50's to mid 60's, coolest in eastern CO. Guidance suggests that light upslope flow and modest DPVA associated with small amplitude disturbances in westerly flow aloft will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the Colorado Front Range, Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide (west of a line from Limon to Akron, CO and Sidney, NE) by 2-4 pm MDT this afternoon, and that said activity will grow upscale into clusters over eastern CO (~5-6 pm MDT) and ultimately evolve into a linear mesoscale convective system /MCS/ that sweeps eastward across northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska late this afternoon and evening (~6-10 pm MDT). Damaging winds are expected to be the primary severe weather hazard, though a few instances of large hail are possible with any isolated/discrete storms during initial development in CO late this afternoon. Despite weak low-level flow and modest mid-level flow, significant and/or widespread damaging wind is possible if linear organization results in the development of a consolidated cold pool (low confidence worst case scenario). Fri-Fri night: With relatively little change in the synoptic pattern, sensible weather conditions will largely be a function of mesoscale phenomena, namely.. where, and to what degree/extent, environmental conditions are altered by convection this evening and early Fri morning. In a stagnant synoptic pattern with weak low-level flow, convective overturning/stabilization in the wake of an MCS tends to decrease convective potential (in the same area) the following day. In this case, high resolution guidance suggests that a mesoscale high in the wake of the aforementioned MCS will shunt diurnal thunderstorm development southward to the Raton Mesa, southeast CO and southwest KS.. south of Highway 40. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 144 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The upper level ridge currently extending west from the Desert Southwest into the Pacific Ocean will strengthen over the Four Corners Region and shift/expand north during this part of the forecast. Any storm activity over the mountains will be directed to the north instead of the east. This will put the Plains and Great Basin under the dome of high pressure. The ridge will cause an approaching upper level trough to be deflected to Southern Canada. Highs will be in the 90s and lows will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s, which is near normal. However lows in the low 70s may move in over the eastern part of the forecast area toward the end of next week. Heat index values will be near normal for this time of year. However heat index values may increase over the east toward the end of next week if lows do only cool into the low 70s. Relative humidity values will fall to around 20% over East Central CO by the middle of next week, with higher relative humidity values to the east. This is still above fire weather concerns, but something to be aware of given the drying fuels in Colorado. Wildfire smoke may affect the eastern part of Colorado depending on where the ridge is centered. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1128 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Sub-VFR conditions and strong westerly winds associated with thunderstorms are possible at both terminals late this afternoon and evening, mainly between 00-06Z. Patchy MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled-out ~09-15Z Fri morning (similar to this morning). VFR conditions will otherwise rule through the TAF period. ESE to SE winds at 7-14 knots this afternoon and evening will become light and variable overnight (in the wake of storms) and remain light/variable through the rest of the 18Z TAF period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...JTL AVIATION...Vincent  813 FXUS63 KMQT 091950 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 350 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Benign, sunny weather continues through Friday with highs near seasonal norms. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday, but no severe weather is expected. - A warming trend is forecast as high temperatures increase daily through early next week. Highs near or above 90 are becoming more likely from Sunday through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 349 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 GOES visible satellite reveals mostly clear skies across Upper Michigan this afternoon, save for some pesky low stratus and fog hanging on over parts of Lake Superior and some fairweather cumulus popping up over the higher terrain of the western UP. RAP analysis shows surface high pressure beginning to build in over Lake Superior as it extends southward from Hudson Bay and northern Ontario. This will promote dry and pleasant summer conditions through Friday as high temperatures increase into the upper 70s to mid 80s across the area for Friday afternoon. Will likely see some patchy fog develop again tonight, especially in the vicinity of Lake Superior, but do not expect coverage to be as extensive as last night as the lower levels of the atmosphere trend a bit drier. Temperatures continue to gradually increase through the weekend as expansive upper level ridging builds from the Intermountain West into the central CONUS, sending highs solidly into the 80s across the UP on Saturday afternoon and pushing 90 degrees for at least the interior areas by Sunday. Will retain a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday as a few weak disturbances transit the periphery of the upper ridge this weekend, but with MUCAPE only around 500 J/kg and relatively meager shear would not anticipate any strong to severe thunderstorms. Heat remains the primary forecast concern early next week as 500 mb heights rise above 590 dam, near or above the climatological max for mid July per multiple ensemble suites, while 850 mb temps climb to 25-27 C or higher. This will likely result in widespread readings in the 90s across the UP for Monday and Tuesday, with the NBM depicting a greater than 75% chance to exceed 90 away from the immediate shorelines and even the often low-biased LREF showing a 60-75% chance in these locations. Humidity will not be as high as in the late June heat wave as low level trajectories will have more of a westerly component, but dewpoints into the 60s will still support potential 100 degree heat indexes in some interior locations per the NBM. This coupled with high overnight low temps in the 60s to perhaps even 70 degrees will correspond to a major HeatRisk across much of the UP for Monday and Tuesday. There remains uncertainty as to the duration of the heat later into the week as medium range guidance continues to hint at a strong upper trough flattening out the ridge as it moves into the vicinity of Hudson Bay Tuesday into Wednesday of next week, increasing shower and thunderstorm chances again across the area as we head into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 216 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Dense fog has cleared out from all three sites, leaving VFR conditions at SAW, CMX, and IWD for the rest of today and into tonight. Winds are light and northerly during daytime hours, going calm or very light and variable around 00Z. Chances for fog redevelopment in the early Friday morning hours are nonzero; LAMP probabilities of LIFR visibility are less than 25% at all three sites and highest at CMX and SAW. Calm winds tonight will aid fog development, as will radiational cooling. LAMP probabilities for LIFR visibility areof similar magnitude to those of IFR or MVFR at all three sites 05Z-12Z, indicating that if fog does form, it could very well be dense. && .MARINE... Issued at 349 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Surface high pressure building over the lake from the north will maintain light winds of 15 kt or less into the weekend. Patches of dense fog will likely linger over parts of the lake, especially the eastern half, through at least Friday morning. There is some indication that the pressure gradient will tighten across the lake early next week as string high pressure resides over the Lower Great Lakes while a strong low approaches from the northwest. This will likely result in 25-30 kt southwesterly winds over the western half of the lake during the first half of next week, with the NBM showing a 15-25% chance for a few gale force gusts Monday into Tuesday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for LSZ248-250-251- 265>267. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CB AVIATION...RE MARINE...CB  817 FXUS65 KPIH 091950 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 150 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat expected through the weekend with many locations nearing or reaching 100 degrees Saturday and Sunday. heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings have been issued for many areas. - Drier weather returns today through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 111 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Main impact will be the heat expected to come. Friday will be quite hot with highs low to mid 90s lower elevations and 80s mountains. By Saturday through Monday many low elevation high temperatures will reach 100 degrees with the mountains in the 80s to lower 90s. Many heat warnings and advisories have been issued for Saturday and Sunday. Will see some slight cooling at monsoonal moisture returns Tuesday through Thursday as the upper ridge pushes east and there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms returning with the increased moisture. Even though slightly cooler it remains hot with above normal temperatures in the Tuesday through Thursday time frame. Low to mid 90s expected in the lower elevations and still mainly 80s in the mountains. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1109 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Widespread VFR with mainly clear skies through Friday with only some few to sct mid level clouds. Winds generally under 10 knots other than some afternoon 10 knots or so at PIH and IDA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1224 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Isolated showers and thunderstorms still possible today and Friday afternoon, but coverage and intensity should be much lower than previous afternoons as moisture continues to wane. Any brief shower or thunderstorm could still produce gusty and erratic winds, but this will be more of an exception than the rule. The ridge of high pressure advertised for several days will establish over the next 24 hours or so, bringing much warmer temperatures to the area and drier conditions overall. We'll see temperature climb from near or slightly above average today to 10-15 degrees above average by Saturday and Sunday. RH values will drop to values firmly in the low teen to single digits each afternoon. Overnight lows will be much warmer than usual as well, limiting overnight recovery over the weekend. Winds will generally be light today and Friday, but begin to increase Saturday and Sunday. These will be the next critical fire weather days as fuels continue to dry out and cure from any recent rain they may have received. The ridge generally sticks around into early next week, but we begin to see monsoonal moisture wrap around the western edge of the high, bringing precipitable water values back up leading to better coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but also limiting RH minimums. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 9 PM MDT Sunday for IDZ051>055-060>068-070-075. Extreme Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 9 PM MDT Sunday for IDZ056>059. && $$ DISCUSSION...GK AVIATION...GK FIRE WEATHER...TAX  939 FXHW60 PHFO 091954 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 954 AM HST Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure far north of the state will continue to produce breezy trades into the weekend. Mainly windward and mauka showers will ride in on the trades, favoring southern islands today and tonight. Another batch of trade showers arrives in the Aloha State about Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Very large surface high 1035 mb or so meanders over the far NE Pac the next 10 days, keeping trades breezy with slight slackening expected by the middle of next week. Sat and CAMS show one batch of trade wind showers associated with higher PW around 1.7" moving into BI and Maui Co, while another exits Kauai. Oahu should be on N fringes of this moisture convergence Fri. Still another progged near the islands in the ensemble means Sun AM. Ridging persists aloft so nothing too unusual expected with any of these. Otherwise, typical windward and mauka showers expected with PW near normal thru midweek. MJO and ensembles suggest we keep an eye on the tropics to our S and SE the next couple of weeks, could see an increase in low level moisture locally late next week as the ITCZ generally trends more active. && .AVIATION... Moderate to breezy trades will persist across the Hawaiian Islands, bringing in pockets of enhanced low-level showers across predominately windward and mauka areas. Expect VFR conditions to prevail across most locations, with occasional localized MVFR conditions in association with shower activity. AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration above 2500 feet for windward and mauka areas due to clouds and showers. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence over and downwind of terrain for all islands. This AIRMET will likely continue through the next several days. && .MARINE... Strong high pressure centered north of the state continues to drive fresh to strong trade winds across all coastal waters. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended for all Hawaiian waters through Friday afternoon. High-resolution guidance suggests that SCA winds will hover near the advisory threshold across the coastal marine zones through Friday. Trades will remain fresh to strong through the weekend so the SCA may need to be extended. A small to moderate medium-period south-southwest (190-200 degrees) swell will gradually decline through Friday. A small to moderate, long- period southwest swell (220 degrees) is expected to fill in Saturday into early next week, but due to its Tasman source, could be more inconsistent than the current swell. Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the week as fresh to strong trades hold. A series of small, moderate- to long-period west (270 to 280 degrees) swells are expected to arrive late Friday and hold into early next week, sourced from Typhoon Bavi in the far western Pacific. Surf along north-facing shores is expected to remain flat to tiny with no significant swells forecast from the north or northwest. Looking ahead, higher than normal high tides will be possible beginning during the latter half of this weekend. Interests immediately along the coasts in low-lying or vulnerable areas should continue to monitor forecasts for possible coastal flooding due to the King Tides from Sunday through the first half of next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for all Hawaiian waters- && $$ DISCUSSION...RAB/TS AVIATION...Evans MARINE...Shigesato