194 FXUS61 KCLE 092000 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 400 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The forecast remains generally on track with a few strong thunderstorms possible in Northwest Ohio this evening. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible with thunderstorms on Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening through Friday as a cold front settles south into the area. A few thunderstorms could be strong to severe(level 1 of 5) and produce locally heavy rain. 2) Dry conditions return on Sunday with temperatures trending warmer into next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A broad area of low pressure is located near southern Lake Huron with a cold front extending to the southwest. Showers and thunderstorms have developed with weak to moderate instability of around 1000 J/kg of ML Cape ahead of the cold front across northern Indiana and southeast Michigan. Thunderstorms to the northwest have produced some wind gusts of 40-50 mph in an environment with slightly better shear in proximity to a shortwave over western Michigan. Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase across Northwest Ohio this evening and we will need to watch for a few stronger thunderstorms with DCAPE of 1100 J/kg. Activity may struggle as it moves east towards Cleveland and encounters dry air aloft early this evening. The airmass will continue to undergo moistening this evening and will see scattered showers and thunderstorms try to sneak across Lake Erie as the shortwave passes aloft. The threat for severe storms (Marginal Risk level 1 of 5) is still focused across Northwest Ohio which seems reasonable. By 00Z, PW values are forecast to increase to around 2 inches across northern portions of the forecast area. While a decrease in coverage is likely this evening as we lose heating, scattered showers with a few thunderstorms are expected overnight as the front sags south into the area with another shortwave moving through the quasi-zonal flow aloft after midnight. A general uptick in coverage is expected again as we destabilize on Friday along the front. Training of storms resulting in pockets of heavy rain are the main concern on Friday with storm motion of only 10-15 mph. HREF probs are showing some very low probabilities of three hour rainfall exceeding 3 inches in some of the southern counties on Friday afternoon with activity settling south of the area during the evening. Another robust shortwave will move through the Ohio Valley on Saturday and have continued with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures drop back into the lower 80s behind the front by Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 2... Strong high pressure builds over the Central Great Lakes on Sunday and settles south into the area early next week. This will bring several days of dry weather. A broad upper level ridge is forecast to develop over the Plains states next week. The eastward extent of the ridge will impact temperatures and chances of precipitation into the middle of next week. At this time confidence is higher in above normal temperatures in Northwest Ohio with lower confidence towards Northwest Pennsylvania due to the possibility of a trough passing to the north and/or possible lake breezes. The 12Z GFS was stronger with the New England trough than the consensus and continued with above normal temperatures for most of the area next week. && .AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/... Widespread VFR conditions are being observed across the area this afternoon as SCT diurnal cu have developed over most terminals. Upstream convection has begun to develop and is expected to move east through this evening into the overnight hours. Overall extent of convection is expected to remain scattered, making it difficult to pinpoint a potential arrival time of storms at terminals. KTOL would be the first impacted this afternoon with at least VCTS expected. If showers do impact terminals, conditions may briefing diminish to MVFR visibilities. On Friday, showers and storms are expected to stick around as a weak low pressure system moves into the area. Additional non-VFR conditions are possible with these additional showers, however overall confidence in timing remains low. Opted to handle all convection and showers with TEMPO or PROB30. Winds from the west-southwest this afternoon at 5-12 knots may occasionally gust up to 20 knots, especially across far western terminals. After sunset, winds will become light and variable before gradually transitioning to a more northerly flow on Friday afternoon. Outlook...Non-VFR possible with scattered thunderstorms through Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE... Calm marine conditions are expected to continue as high pressure lingers over the area. Southwest winds of 5-12 knots will gradually become northwesterly tonight into Friday morning as a weak low pressure system move south of the lakeshore. Waves will remain 2 feet or less. As the low moves south, there is a potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop which may produce locally gusty winds and higher waves. High pressure returns this weekend allowing winds to shift to northeasterly at 8-12 knots for Saturday and Sunday. Onshore flow across the western and central basin may result in waves building to 1 to 3 feet. This high will remain dominant into next week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...10 AVIATION...04 MARINE...04  296 FXUS64 KMOB 092001 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 301 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Heat indices remain in the 100 to 107 range each afternoon through Sunday, with localized spots potentially reaching 108-110. - Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue through Friday, increasing to numerous to widespread by Sunday into early next week with potential for locally heavy rainfall. - A Moderate risk of rip currents will return for all area beaches Friday night through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Weak westerly flow aloft will persist through Friday as ridging remains centered to our south across the eastern Gulf and the Florida peninsula. Seasonably high moisture combined with strong instability will maintain a typical summertime convective pattern through the end of the workweek. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and again on Friday, primarily along the advancing sea breeze as a light onshore flow allows it to progress well inland. Isolated showers and storms are also possible near the coast Friday morning along the land breeze. Any stronger pulse storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall. A complex pattern evolution takes shape this weekend into early next week. A large upper high is projected to build across the central and northern CONUS, forcing a positively tilted trough over the Ohio Valley southward into our region along with an east-west oriented surface trough and weak frontal boundary. Rain chances will begin to increase on Saturday, especially inland where PoPs rise to the 40- 60% range. Moisture convergence ahead of the boundary will increase PWATs above the 90th percentile of climatology for Sunday into Monday (potentially exceeding 2.25" in spots). This will favor the development of widespread showers and storms with the potential for localized flooding. The WPC has introduced a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Monday for the entire area. Trends will continue to be monitored for increasing flood potential during the Sunday-Tuesday timeframe. Any strong to severe thunderstorm potential would be most likely on Sunday afternoon thanks to ample surface heating south of the front. By Monday, cooler temperatures and widespread cloud cover with nearly saturated profiles will likely favor more in the way of overrunning, with the greatest heavy rainfall potential likely developing near the coast, but this will depend on where the boundary sets up. Confidence decreases by Tuesday as model solutions diverge on whether a the front stalls over the area or shifts offshore. Trends in the guidance suggest the upper trough will eventually close off and retrograde westward along the Gulf Coast beneath the building ridge through the middle of the week. This would return us to a typical onshore summertime flow pattern by midweek. Temperatures will remain seasonably hot through Sunday, with afternoon highs generally in the low to mid 90s and peak afternoon heat indices ranging from 100 to 107, with a few localized spots potentially reaching 108 to 110 degrees. Overnight lows will continue to offer little relief, generally in the mid 70s inland and upper 70s to around 80 near the coast. Increased cloud cover and widespread rainfall should bring noticeably cooler conditions on Monday and Tuesday, with highs topping in the low to mid 80s or perhaps even upper 70s in some spots, especially over the interior. At the beaches, a Moderate risk of rip currents develops Friday night and persists through Sunday for all area beaches, continuing into Monday for the Florida beaches. JGC/98 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Predominate VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Isolated to scattered convection focused closer to the coast midday/early afternoon will spread inland by mid to late afternoon. These storms could cause brief reductions to MVFR/IFR. Storms are expected to quickly diminish this evening. South to southwest winds of 5-10 kts will diminish and becoming very light tonight. 34/JFB && .MARINE... Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A light to occasionally moderate southerly to southwesterly flow prevails through Sunday, becoming mainly westerly by early next week. Seas will remain generally 2 feet or less through Friday, building to 2 to 3 feet for the weekend into early next week. Expect locally higher winds and seas in and around thunderstorms. JGC/98 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 76 93 76 93 / 10 20 20 50 Pensacola 79 93 80 93 / 20 20 20 40 Destin 81 92 81 92 / 0 20 20 30 Evergreen 73 94 73 93 / 20 30 10 40 Waynesboro 74 95 74 94 / 20 20 10 50 Camden 74 92 74 92 / 20 10 10 40 Crestview 74 94 74 95 / 10 30 10 50 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  655 FXUS62 KMHX 092006 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 406 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant chances with this forecast package. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dangerous heat and humidity persists across ENC into this weekend. 2) There is a chance for some strong thunderstorms later this weekend into early next week as instability builds across ENC. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid conditions across the region today with temperatures in the mid to upper 90s inland from the coast and lower 90s along the immediate coast. Heat index values have reached around 100-110 this afternoon, highest along the coast where dew point temps are in the mid to upper 70s. Deeper mixing inland and brought dew point temps into the upper 60s to lower 70s keeping heat index values in the lower range. Will continue the Heat Advisory for much of ENC through the early evening hours. Low level thickness will be similar across the are on Friday and expect similar high temps in the 90s once again. Low level flow continues out of the W to WSW Friday with deeper mixing allow for dew point temps to drop around 2-3 degrees from today's values, and while the Heat Risk continues in the major category, heat index values are expected to peak a few degrees lower, generally around 100-105. Will hold off on issuing a Heat Advisory for Friday at this time with only a small are expected to climb above 105 degrees and let following shifts evaluate further. Low level thicknesses decrease several meters on Saturday with temps a few degrees less hot while dew point temps begin to creep back up resulting in another day with heat index values around 100-105 with the heat risk in the moderate to major range. KEY MESSAGE 2...An upper level trough/mid level shortwave and surface front approaching from the north and west this weekend will increase shower and thunderstorm chances Saturday and Sunday across ENC. Latest trends is for the front to approach our northern zones Saturday evening and push through the area Sun morning. This would act to bring best precip chances to ENC Sat afternoon and overnight with chances then waning through the day Sun from north to south. While instability has trended down, generally ranging from 1000-2000 J/kg of ML CAPE Sat and 750-1500 J/kg of ML CAPE Sun, with greater upper level support and deep layer shear values closer to 25-30 kts this weekend across ENC, could see a few stronger storms this weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Pred VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms possible across northern rtes through the evening, generally across northern rtes. Only slightly better coverage on Friday with widely scattered late day/evening showers and thunderstorms. SW winds will gust around 20 kt during the afternoon hours both this afternoon and again Friday afternoon. Light mixing and dry conditions will generally serve to limit fog/stratus tonight and can not rule out shallow ground fog late tonight. Outlook (Saturday through Tuesday): As we get into the weekend as an upper level trough and associated surface front approaches increasing chances for showers and storms as well as sub-VFR conditions will be noted. Could see improving conditions on Monday. && .MARINE... Currently seeing SW winds around 10-20 kt with seas around 3-5 ft. Winds will continue to increase this afternoon and evening as a low pressure area passes north of the area and a strengthening thermal trough inland with SW winds around 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas building to 4-7 ft. Winds will be strongest across the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters and have kept SCA's for these areas. Winds relax briefly Friday morning, but then tighten again Friday afternoon as a front approaches from the NW with SCA conditions expected to redevelop over the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet. Outlook (Saturday through Monday): Once again not much change in the forecast as conditions gradually improve Saturday, then will see a backdoor cold front drop through the waters late Saturday night and Sunday with winds becoming NE around 10-20 kt with seas building to 3-5 ft. A weak area of low pressure may form along the stalled front to the south Monday keeping E-NEly flow across the waters. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ045>047-080- 081-090-092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154- 156. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ158. && $$ DISCUSSION...SK/RCF AVIATION...SK/RCF MARINE...SK/RCF  144 FXUS63 KLBF 092010 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 310 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances tonight into Friday are the concern in the near-term. Could see some isolated to scattered instances of damaging wind with tonight's activity. Dry weather is expected Saturday and beyond into next week. - Hot temperatures are expected Sunday through at least Tuesday, with highs in the 90s and some locations potentially approaching 100 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 154 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 One last round of thunderstorms is expected across the area late this afternoon into tonight. Early this afternoon analysis shows that overall shear is weak. That is expected to increase some mid to late afternoon as low-level southeasterly flow increases. This is in response to a deepening area of surface low pressure across eastern Wyoming. A couple of different areas for convective initiation this afternoon. 1) across the higher terrain of SD, WY and CO. This is already occurring. 2) Several weak boundaries are located across the area and could serve as a focus for isolated develoment. This seems most likely across the Sandhills, where recent satellite imagery does show some towering cumulus near and southwest of Mullen. Several of the hi-res cam models do initiate some isolated convection near these boundaries this afternoon. Of more certainty will be for the convection off the higher terrain to organize early this evening across the Panhandle as it moves eastward into a moist up-slope southeast flow regime. Hail could occur early on, especially where convection is firing off to our west. Also any isolated convection that develops farther east along the aforementioned boundaries could contain hail. Otherwise should see the Panhandle convection grow upscale into at least a loosely organized MCS this evening as it tracks eastward toward Highway 83. Isolated to scattered areas of damaging wind gusts would be the main concern with this activity. Some uncertainty on how far east this activity will make it before weakening. Latest trends do make it to Highway 83 with at least some threat of stronger wind gusts. Tomorrow is also a bit uncertain in regards to precipitation. Several of the CAMS including the 09/18Z HRRR shows a lingering MCV that becomes nearly stationary across central Nebraska from tonight's convection. If this were to occur, there may be quite a bit in the way of cloudiness and at least some threat for scattered shower/thunder activity. This trend will have to be monitored. As we head into the weekend, dry weather is expected. A strong area of upper-level high pressure will expand across the region. By Sunday it should be centered just to our northwest, with very light winds and warming temperatures aloft, as mentioned, this will keep things dry. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 154 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Sunday into the middle of next week, an upper-level ridge will amplify and strengthen across the central United States, with 500mb heights potentially approaching 600 dam across the region. Ensemble guidance indicates 850mb temperature anomalies of 4 to 8C above normal, with the greatest anomalies focused across the Dakotas. This pattern will support hot and predominantly dry conditions as the stronger upper-level flow remains north of the region. High temperatures will likely climb into the low to mid 90s across much of the area, with some locations potentially approaching 100 degrees. As mentioned in the previous discussion, NBM percentile guidance remains somewhat less aggressive with high temperatures. However, given the strength of the upper-level ridge, anomalously warm temperatures aloft, and continued dry conditions across western and central Nebraska, temperatures may ultimately trend warmer than current deterministic guidance. We will continue to monitor this over the next few days. Winds will also increase early next week as surface low pressure develops along the central Rockies, tightening the surface pressure gradient across the region and promoting gusty southerly winds. Overall, the pattern early next week is supportive of significant heat, along with dry and gusty conditions through at least Tuesday. Wednesday into Thursday, the strong upper-level ridge is expected to begin breaking down as an upper-level trough develops across the northeastern United States. This may allow a backdoor cold front to move into the region by late next week, bringing temperatures back toward seasonal levels. The evolving pattern may also provide some opportunities for precipitation, though the potential for widespread precipitation currently appears low. Confidence in the timing and evolution of this pattern shift remains limited due to continued differences among model guidance, and trends will continue to be monitored over the next several forecast cycles. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A line of thunderstorms will move eastward across the area this evening. The threat with these storms will be locally strong gusty winds. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail, with surface winds light outside of any thunderstorm activity. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Taylor LONG TERM...Labenz AVIATION...Taylor  621 FXUS63 KICT 092022 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 322 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms are possible late tonight into early Friday morning, mainly along and west of I-135. Main concerns are wind gusts up to 65 mph and up to quarter size hail. - Additional periodic storm chances Friday afternoon through Sunday morning. A few strong storms are possible. - Dry and seasonably warm conditions forecast for next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... As of early this afternoon, modest zonal to northwest flow continues over the central plains with a subtle shortwave trough exiting eastward across Iowa and Missouri, and another progressing eastward over the central Rockies. Subtle mid-level WAA behind the former feature has lead to isolated showers throughout the day across mainly far southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Meanwhile, the latter feature will support a complex of storms moving through the forecast area late tonight into early Friday morning. It feels as through we've repeated the same thing for the 30th time this summer: strong to severe storms are possible late tonight into the overnight hours. The arrival of the shortwave trough across the Rockies will trigger widespread thunderstorm development across the High Plains late this afternoon. These storms will congeal into a complex/loosely organized squall line and push eastward across Kansas late tonight into early Friday morning. Short range guidance this morning is in good agreement that these storms will track down an axis of instability draped across Kansas; however, this instability will decrease with eastward extent leading to some uncertainty in the intensity of these storms as they enter into the forecast area. Most likely, severe storms will be limited to locations west of I-135, but an occasional severe wind gust is possible as far east as the Flint Hills. Given the amount of CIN that will build across the area overnight along with marginal low-level shear, a brief QLCS tornado appears unlikely, but any storms associated with organized cold pools may be able to produce localized wind gusts up around 55-65 mph despite the low-level inhibition. There's also an outside chance for up to quarter size hail, but given the messy/linear storm mode, most will see small hail, if any at all. As storms move east of the I-135, the intensity of these storms should decrease, but chances for festering, sub-severe showers and storms will continue through much of Friday morning. ...FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... The residual outflow boundary from Friday morning's storms is forecast to be laid out west-to-east across southern Kansas or northern Oklahoma by Friday afternoon. Widely scattered diurnally driven storms are forecast to develop along this boundary. While shear would support organized storms, there's some questions about how much the atmosphere will destabilize during the day on Friday. That being said, any storms that do develop will likely be strong to marginally severe with up to 60 mph wind gusts and up to quarter size hail possible. Additionally, another round of storms will develop across the High Plains and progress eastward across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma late Friday night into Saturday morning. By the time this complex of storms gets into the forecast area overnight Friday night, it's likely they will be sub-severe, but trends will need to be monitored over the next day or so. Additional storms are possible across far southern and southeast Kansas Saturday through early Sunday morning. Again, some of these storms could be strong, but limited shear and instability should put a fairly low ceiling on the intensity of this activity. ...SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... As we head into next week, mid to long-range guidance continues to remain in agreement that a strong mid/upper ridge will build over the northern plains. With the center of this ridge forecast to be so far north, it currently appears as through the region will avoid the worst of the heat through midweek. There's still time for some changes, but as guidance has been very consistent on this for awhile now, confidence is fairly high that temperatures will be near average to start off next week. Also, the pattern change is likely to cutoff rain chances for much of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A few showers/storms continue to exit southeast KS early this afternoon and should stay south of KCNU unless further development occurs. VFR conditions should prevail for the remainder of the day with a return of storm chances impacting central KS sometime after 04Z or so. These could make it as far east as KICT but will most likely be dissipating as they progress further eastward. Winds will be widely variable as low pressure transits the region. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...SGS  750 FXUS66 KSEW 092025 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 125 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A weak front will bring increasing clouds and cooler temperatures across Western Washington Friday into Saturday. Light rain chances also exist, particularly for portions of the mountains. Upper ridging will build back into the Pacific Northwest for warmer, dry conditions Sunday through Tuesday. Onshore flow increases again during the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...Mostly sunny skies across the area today with weak high pressure aloft. Temperatures will peak in the 70s for the majority of Puget Sound this afternoon, with cooler temperatures along the coast with continued onshore flow. A weak front will move across Western Washington Friday through Saturday leading to increased onshore flow. Mostly cloudy conditions are expected on Friday, with a bit more in the way of partial sunshine late Saturday. In addition, light rain chances exist for the Cascades and Olympics, as well as from King County northwards Friday morning into Saturday. Rainfall amounts are expected to be light (if any), primarily less than 0.10". Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler both Friday and Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...A large scale upper level ridge will build across much of the Interior Rockies and Central US early next week. Western Washington will be located on the northwest periphery of this ridge. This pattern will promote a warming trend, with dry conditions, Sunday through at least Tuesday. Minor HeatRisk is expected during this period, with a 10-35% chance of Moderate HeatRisk for Seattle metro southwards to Olympia. Uncertainty grows in ensembles by Wednesday with at least some indication of weak troughing developing offshore. This would allow for an increase in onshore flow mid next week with a slight cooling trend going into later next week. JD && .AVIATION...Westerly to northwesterly flow aloft as a weak front remains offshore. VFR conditions across all terminal sites this afternoon. Onshore flow will continue tonight with a stronger marine layer expected into Friday morning, with likely MVFR/IFR ceilings at spots 05-09z spreading into the interior through the morning hours. This layer looks to stick around for a bit before dissipating around 20z-22z, rebounding back to VFR for Friday afternoon. NW winds this afternoon 4 to 8 knots turning more S/SW this evening through Friday morning. KSEA...VFR conditions this afternoon will continue throughout the evening. Latest guidance shows confidence in more widespread MVFR ceilings early Friday morning 11z-16z as a marine layer spreads through the interior. Northwesterly winds this afternoon 4 to 8 knots will turn southerly and generally remain the same speeds. VFR conditions return around 19-22z. Mazurkiewicz && .MARINE...Surface high pressure remains over the coastal and offshore waters this afternoon. High pressure will weaken into Friday as a weak surface low shifts southward toward to just west of north Vancouver Island. An associated weak frontal system will cross the waters Friday afternoon into Friday night with little to no impact. High pressure will rebuild Sunday into Monday. Diurnally driven increases in westerlies can be expected in the Strait of Juan de Fuca each the next several days. Coastal seas remain 4 to 6 feet throughout much of the week. Mazurkiewicz && .FIRE WEATHER...The current onshore pattern will continue through the weekend which will lead to continued excellent nightly RH recoveries. Light drizzle or rain chances exist Friday into Saturday, mainly for the Olympics and Cascades. Rainfall amounts during this period would total less than 0.10". A ridge of high pressurebriefly rebuilds into the region Monday and Tuesday. While the onshore pattern will largely remain in place, warmer daytime temperatures and clear skies will likely lead to RH values dipping into the 20-40% percent range, with the lowest values in the south interior and Cascades Valleys. This will allow fine fuels to continue to dry with elevated fire weather conditions. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT Friday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca- East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$  814 FXUS65 KLKN 092025 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 125 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms coverage expected near the Utah border today * Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses each afternoon from Friday through Sunday as highs soar into the upper 90s to low 100s * Increasing monsoonal moisture will increase potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms next week && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Isolated showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in White Pine county and are expected to spread into southeastern Elko county before dissipating around sundown. Temperatures increase tomorrow to kick off what will likely be the warmest few days so far this year, with highs in the upper 90s into triple digits. Overnight lows will provide some relief, with temperatures in the upper 50s to 60s, but heat advisories have been issued across much of the forecast area this weekend. Several record highs are also at risk, with Elko, Eureka and Ely all forecast to approach or tie their current record on Saturday. The heat is also expected to increase fire weather concerns, especially when combined with elevated winds around 30 mph on Saturday. The extreme heat is generally expected to break for Monday but temperatures will continue to be above average, with highs in the mid to upper 90s through the end of the forecast period. Also starting Monday, an upper level high pressure center will facilitate a monsoonal moisture push that is expected to form scattered showers and afternoon thunderstorms. Showers are expected to continue as long as the monsoon flow continues. At this time monsoonal flow is anticipated to persist through the end of the forecast, but the high will need to be watched to see when it breaks down. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in extreme heat Friday through Sunday. High confidence in continued above average temperatures Monday and beyond. Moderate confidence on monsoon moisture and storm potential but low confidence in spatial and temporal coverage of said storms. Winds were increased by about 5 mph for Saturday to better reflect potential fire weather conditions. PoPs were also increased for this afternoon to better reflect the future of ongoing convection. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions and light winds expected through the next 24 hours. Isolated thunderstorms are possible near KENV but direct terminal impact is not expected. Short lived strong winds up to 40KT may impact the terminal due to nearby thunderstorm passage. AMD NOT SKED continues for KEKO due to communications issues. && .FIRE WEATHER...Extreme heat is expected through Monday with single digit RH values. Confidence is increasing that critical thresholds will be reached in central Nevada on Saturday as winds increase to gust 30-35 mph. Monsoonal moisture flow is indicated to begin on Monday, which will need to be monitored for initial dry thunderstorm potential, as well as general thunder and potential wetting rain impacts. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Sunday NVZ031-034-035-038-039. Heat Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 11 PM PDT Monday NVZ033. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday NVZ036-037-040-041. && $$ DISCUSSION...94 AVIATION...94 FIRE WEATHER...94  968 FXUS65 KPSR 092030 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 130 PM MST Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures will continue this week resulting in areas of isolated major Heat Risk and lingering Extreme Heat Warnings. - The chance for showers and thunderstorms will mainly be confined to higher terrain areas of far eastern Arizona through Saturday. - Deeper moisture will move into the region early next week resulting in better chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/... Early afternoon WV imagery depicts the eastern edge of a subtropical anti-cyclone over Arizona with the core high pressure center along the southern California coast. Meanwhile, shortwave energy in the northern stream across the Great Basin was acting to dampen and partially erode this ridge aloft. While H5 heights have retreated somewhat to around 594dm, thermal profiles through the middle troposphere are steady or even warming as a result of midlevel subsidence warming south of a westerly jet streak across Utah. This evolution will yield a continuation of surface temperatures 5F-10F above normal today and patchy areas of major HeatRisk. On Friday, the high pressure center will move back into Arizona as the northern stream shortwave exits into the plains. Temperatures should cool very slightly in response to the loss of subsident warming, however localized areas in SE California continue with major HeatRisk and continuation of Extreme Heat warnings. Given increased subsidence, warming aloft, and a modest reduction in low level mixing ratios, deep convection will be reduced through Friday, though not completely eliminated across eastern Arizona high terrain. Conceivably, a weakening outflow could propagate into parts of the CWA this evening, however waning instability and greater inhibition should limit convective coverage and intensity. Even more sparse and weaker thunderstorms would be expected Friday under a similar hostile environment, and not even justifying POPs above 10%. A far more conducive environment will materialize over northern Sonora Friday evening with models hinting at an well organized, intense MCS. With mean flow turning SE by this time, this will set the stage for deep moisture advection into the forecast area Saturday with sfc-H7 mixing ratios 10-11 g/kg and total column PWATs over 1.50" surging through south-central Arizona. These moisture parameters along with the evolving synoptic pattern will become favorable for scattered storms, multiple strong outflow boundaries, and locally heavy rainfall into lower elevation communities into early next week. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As mentioned, the overall weather pattern heading into the weekend and next week will become more favorable for a more active monsoonal pattern to set up. The subtropical ridge will quickly migrate northeastward into the Rockies over the weekend and then set up over the Central Plains early next week while strengthening in the process. As this whole pattern evolution materializes, the mid-level flow will shift out of the east to southeast. This will introduce strong moisture transport into the Desert Southwest with the latest EPS and GEFS showing PWATs increasing to at least 1.4-1.5" starting as early as Sunday and remaining above 1.5" into next week. Moisture on Saturday will likely remain fairly limited across south- central AZ with low-level mixing ratios remaining between 9-10 g/kg, with the better moisture and thus the best convective potential remaining relegated to the higher terrain and southeastern AZ. There are strong indications from the latest guidance of a strong convective complex likely to develop over northern Sonora Saturday evening, which will likely send of pool of higher moisture into central AZ heading into Sunday with mixing ratios solidly above 10 g/kg. As a result, Sunday looks to be the first real potential for greater thunderstorm activity to materialize across the south- central AZ lower deserts with NBM PoPs solidly in the 30-50% range. With PWATs values remaining above 1.5" along with mixing ratios above 10 g/kg through the first half of next week, the potential for additional convective activity will remain in place and likely expand further west to include the western deserts as well with NBM PoPs ranging between 20-40% each day. We will also have to be on the lookout for any potential easterly waves that could enhance the convective activity, however, pinpointing the track and timing of these waves this far out is very difficult. Therefore, high uncertainty exists of which particular days next week have the potential to be more convectively active. With the increasing moisture and potential cloud cover, afternoon high temperatures this weekend into early next week will gradually retreat to near to slightly above normal levels with widespread moderate HeatRisk in place. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1730Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: The main aviation forecast uncertainty will be the potential for an outflow from distant convection moving through region early tonight. As of now, best timing looks to be between 05Z-08Z, though timing may need to be adjusted in later TAF updates. Due to the uncertainty of this feature, it only included in the TAFs as TEMPO group. No significant dust is expected if an outflow were to come to fruition, but some slight reductions in surface VIS cannot be ruled out, mainly at KIWA. Outside of this, diurnal trends will be observed through the period, with the timing of the nightly/early morning E'rly shift highly conditional the advancement of a possible outflow. Afternoon gusts around 20 kt can be expected. Besides some distant CU from high terrain thunderstorms, skies will be mostly clear in the vicinity of the terminals. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Multiple round of breezy to windy conditions, mainly at KBLH, will be the main aviation concern during the next 24 hours. Gust there will hover around 25 kt this afternoon before relaxing after sunset, though sustained speeds are expected to remain elevated. The next round of breeziness is anticipated overnight in a window between 08Z-12Z, this time with gusts that may approach 30 kt at times. Speeds should once again relax around sunrise. At KIPL, gusts will not be as strong, nor as prominent during the forecast window, but obs around 20 kt are likely to be seen this evening, and maybe again for a brief moment overnight. Clear skies will be common through Friday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Gusty and erratic thunderstorm winds with isolated lightning over the far eastern districts through Friday will be the main fire weather concern. Outside of any potential outflows, winds should favor diurnal trends with typical afternoon breeziness around 20 mph. Some stronger afternoon gusts between 20-30 mph will be common through Friday along the Lower Colorado River Valley. Afternoon RH values between 10-20% will be common across the region through Saturday. Overnight recoveries will generally range between 30-60% with the upper end of the range across the Imperial Valley and the eastern Districts. Temperatures are expected to run well above normal today, with the lowest elevations reaching between 110-115 degrees before a very gradual cool down takes place starting Friday. More widespread monsoonal activity is likely starting late this weekend and continuing into next week. Moisture levels and humidities should also improve considerably heading into next week, alleviating much of the fire weather concerns. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Friday for AZZ530-537-540- 542>544-546-548-550-551. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ531>534- 536-538-539-541-545-547-549-553>555-559-560-562. CA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for CAZ562-566-567- 569-570. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ564-565- 568. && $$ SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM...Lojero AVIATION...RW FIRE WEATHER...Lojero/Kuhlman  359 FXUS65 KSLC 092036 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 236 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty winds and low relative humidity will create areas of critical fire weather conditions across southern Utah today and Friday. - A significant widespread heatwave is expected to develop this weekend into early next week, with temperatures challenging daily, monthly, and even all-time high temperature records. - Confidence continues to increase on monsoonal moisture spreading into the region by mid-next week, bringing an elevated threat for flash flooding across southern Utah through the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION...Southwest flow aloft will continue to bring increasingly drier air into the region through the end of the work week, gradually limiting diurnal convective development through this period. However, lingering moisture across portions of central Utah will allow for one more round of isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Environmental conditions will be favorable for storms developing this afternoon to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds, with gusts to 40-50 mph. An anomalously strong ridge of high pressure builds overhead this weekend, yielding lighter winds, extremely dry conditions, and record-challenging heat. Guidance continues to highlight dangerous heat developing across all of Utah and southwest Wyoming this weekend, even lingering into early next week especially across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. With the ridge axis centered overhead on Saturday, highs climb above 100 for most valley locations, upwards of 110 across lower Washington County and the Glen Canyon area. Temperatures trend up further especially across northern Utah including the Wasatch Front and Cache Valley on Sunday as the ridge axis shifts slightly northeastward; this will be the temperature peak across the region. Highs on Sunday will not only challenge daily and monthly high temperature records, but all-time records as well. For example, KSLC currently has a 35% chance to meet or exceed the all-time record of 107 degrees. Logan is another standout, with an 80%+ chance to exceed its all-time record of 103 degrees. Increasing cloud cover early next week will moderate temperatures a few degrees, but overnight lows will remain elevated. Once lows reach the low-to-mid 70s for most valleys and low-80s for lower Washington County on Sunday morning, they will remain elevated through at least mid-week. This will limit any overnight relief, further exacerbating heat impacts. That said, high confidence in this significant, long- duration heatwave has prompted the issuance of an Extreme Heat Warning beginning Saturday for most lower valley locations. Early next week, the pattern will favor southerly flow with increasing mid- level moisture along the western periphery of the trough. PWATs will gradually increase from the south through mid- week, becoming widespread >1" by Tuesday. This pattern looks to persist through the remainder of the week, which will support the development of widespread precipitation with an increased chance for flash flooding especially across southern Utah. Keep an eye on the forecast if you have outdoor plans next week as the days with highest flash flood threats still remain more uncertain. && .AVIATION, Issued 1139 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026... KSLC...Showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop over the Oquirrh Mountains after ~20-21z, but will likely stay south of the terminal through the afternoon. However, there is still a ~20% chance that a shower or thunderstorms does drift over the airfield before 02z. Gusty outflow winds are more likely to produce an impact, potentially resulting in a wind shift to gusty southerly/southwesterly winds as early as 23z (10%chance of exceeding 40kts briefly). Winds will become lighter and terrain- driven after 02z, becoming light and variable at times overnight. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop after 19-20z across portions of Utah north of I-70 and primarily along/south of KENV-KSLC-KEVW. These storms will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds generally 20-30kts, though stronger storms could result in gusts exceeding 45kts (10% chance). Winds could kick up some BLDU, resulting in temporary VIS reductions. Showers will likely diminish by 02z. Across southern Utah, breezy southwesterly winds are expected this afternoon with mostly clear skies. && .FIRE WEATHER...Isolated showers and thunderstorms capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds to 40-50 mph are expected this afternoon, mainly across the high terrain of central and northern Utah. An increasingly dry airmass continues to build through this weekend, limiting convective development and resulting in very poor to virtually nonexistent overnight humidity recoveries across most of the state. Given already critically dry conditions in place, elevated afternoon southwesterly breezes across southern Utah will result in periods of critical fire weather conditions today and Friday. Winds are expected to become light this weekend as a strong ridge of high pressure develops across the Intermountain West. Temperatures will climb to near or above record values for many locations through the weekend. As the ridge shifts eastward slightly early next week, an influx of mid- level moisture will bring increasing cloud cover that will moderate temperatures slightly and result in a gradual increase in RH across the region. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Extreme Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 6 AM MDT Tuesday for UTZ101>108-114-116-118>121. Extreme Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 6 AM MDT Monday for UTZ115-122-128>131. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ495-496-498. Red Flag Warning from noon Friday to midnight MDT Friday night for UTZ495-496-498. WY...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 9 PM MDT Monday for WYZ021. && $$ PUBLIC... AVIATION... FIRE WEATHER... For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  376 FXUS66 KSGX 092036 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 136 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A strong area of high pressure will continue to bring hot weather through Friday. Ever so slight cooling occurs by the weekend into Monday as high pressure moves to the northeast. The high pressure's movement will bring in greater monsoonal moisture for our area by Sunday into at least the latter part of next week. This will bring increased rain and thunderstorm chances to inland areas with greater humidity for the entire region. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)... The warming trend will continue today with high temperatures for Friday and Saturday a few degrees cooler. There will be widespread major HeatRisk for the lower deserts today with widespread moderate HeatRisk for other inland areas. High temperatures for today will be around average near the coast to 5 to 10 degrees above average for the mountains, deserts, and inland valleys. High temperatures for today will range from the 70s near the coast to the mid 90s to 104 for the Inland Empire with 113 to 117 for the lower deserts. Night and morning coastal low clouds will spread into the far western valleys at times into the weekend. && .LONG TERM (Sunday through Wednesday)... As the center of strong high pressure moves to the northeast, the flow across the area will become southeasterly allowing for an influx of monsoonal moisture for late Saturday into Sunday with growing spread by the middle of next week as to what degree that greater moisture persists. There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning on Sunday with the greater chances over the mountains and during the afternoon and early evening each day. There will be warming of low temperatures with low temperatures mostly 5 to 10 degrees above average by Wednesday and Thursday of next week. For Wednesday and Thursday of next week, there could be low temperatures for the coast and valleys mostly in the upper 60s to mid 70s and in the lower deserts in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Those warming low temperatures will result in higher HeatRisk for most areas with moderate or greater HeatRisk for most areas for Wednesday of next week except at higher elevations in the mountains and near the coast. There will be moderate to major HeatRisk for the lower deserts, the valleys, and inland Orange County. && .AVIATION... 091800Z....Coast/Valleys...Low clouds have cleared inland areas and are clinging to the coast with bases around 1,200ft MSL. There is a 30-40% chance that these low clouds will stick to most coastal areas through the TAF period. Low clouds will begin their march inland after 02-03Z Friday, reaching inland 20 miles by 06-07Z. Bases will be 700-1,100ft MSL with VIS 2-6SM along elevated coastal terrain. Low clouds will start their retreat after 15Z, clearing most coastal locations by 18Z Friday. .Mountains/Deserts...VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Wednesday. && .BEACHES... Astronomical high tides of 7.0-7.2 ft are forecast July 12-14. Higher than normal tides combined with a modest south swell (3 ft swell 14/15 seconds from 190 degrees) generating surf of 4-6 ft may result in areas of coastal flooding in low lying areas, boardwalks, beach parking lots, and beach adjacent streets during evening high tides. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Friday for Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for Coachella Valley- San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...APR AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Villafane  682 FXUS65 KPUB 092043 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 243 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and again Friday afternoon, east of the mountains. - Flash flooding will continue to be a concern over burn scar areas, particularly around the Aspen Acres fire. - Hot and dry conditions return to the region this weekend, with moisture slowly returning to across Western Colorado next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has modest westerly flow in place across the Central Rockies, with a minor embedded shortwave translating through the faster zonal flow across Northern Rockies at this time. Water vapor and GOES Blended Total Water Vapor imagery indicates drying across Great Basin and into Western Colorado, with PWATs of 40-60% of normal, with PWATs across Eastern Colorado currently running around 100 to 120 percent of normal. Regional radars already lighting up with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the Continental Divide into the Eastern mtns and Pikes Peak region as of 1230 pm. For this afternoon through tonight, models remain consistent of scattered showers and storms spreading east into a more unstable environment across the southeast plains late this afternoon and into the evening, where best CAPE, DCAPE and shear will be in place, with the potential for storms to congeal into a MCS rolling into western Kansas through the late evening and overnight hours. With ample DCAPE in place, wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph, will be a concern for storms across the plains through the evening, with hail up to an inch in diameter and brief heavy rainfall with the strongest storms. While some drier air has worked into south central Colorado and into western portions of the Aspen Acres burn area within the modest westerly flow, can't rule out a stronger cell producing locally heavy rainfall, with a Flash Flood watch remaining in place until 8 pm. Otherwise, expecting clearing skies from west to east with convective outflow bringing back low level moisture across plains within east to northeast low level flow, keeping overnight lows at to slightly above seasonal levels in the mid 50s to lower 60s across the plains, with mainly 40s across the higher terrain. Modest west to northwest flow aloft remains progged across the region for Friday, with weak easterly sfc-H7 keeping moisture in place across the eastern mtns and plains, while drier air remains in place across western and into south central Colorado. Latest high res models indicate CAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg across the eastern mtns into the far southeast plains, with isolated to scattered showers and storms developing across the higher terrain through the afternoon, increasing in coverage and intensity as they spread east into the eastern plains once again, where the SPC Day 2 outlook has a marginal to slight risk tomorrow afternoon. The increased moisture and instability across the eastern mtns tomorrow will lead to another risk of locally heavy rainfall across the Aspen Acres Burn area, leading to more day of a Flash Flood Watch in effect from 12-8pm. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 For the weekend, upper level ridging builds across the Four Corners and into the northern Rockies through Sunday, leading to warmer and drier conditions expected across the region with modest east to northeast flow aloft pushing the best moisture south and west of the region. There may be enough residual moisture to support a few showers and storms across the southeast mtns on Saturday afternoon, though convection would be mainly high based, producing more gusty outflow winds than measurable precipitation. This will be a concern for fire fighting efforts once again. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to be some 5-10F above seasonal levels in the 90s to lower 100s across the plains, in the 70s and 80s across the higher terrain, and in the mid 80s to lower 90s across the high mtns valleys. Will need to monitor for potential heat advisories across the region, however, current forecast fall short of criteria being the middle of summer. For the becoming and into the middle of next week, the upper high and "heat dome" is expected to move north and east into the Upper Midwest, with modest easterly flow remaining progged across eastern Colorado while modest south to southwest flow develops across western Colorado. This will keep drier air in place across eastern Colorado and allow for a slow increase in available moisture pushing across the Desert Southwest and Great Basin into western Colorado. While temperatures remain at to slightly above seasonal levels and flow aloft remains modest, can't rule out spotty critical fire weather conditions developing across the region through the work week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1148 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Good chances of showers and storms spreading off the higher terrain and affecting the terminals this afternoon. Will keep prob30 groups in from roughly 20Z-02Z, with gusty outflow winds and brief heavy rainfall the main threats. Skies clear overnight with generally light diurnal wind regimes into the tail end of this period. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080- 086. Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for COZ079-080-086. && $$ SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...MW  740 FXPQ50 PGUM 092044 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 644 AM ChST Fri Jul 10 2026 .Marianas Update... The Marianas are just outside the area of cloudiness and showers from the area leading into Typhoon Bavi well to the west. This is leading to partly cloudy skies with isolated showers, which was well covered in the forecast, so no changes were needed. The tropical disturbance 97W will create some increased showers over the weekend, but nothing else of significance. Then we might get some breezy winds next week. && .Eastern Micronesia Update... Eastern Micronesia has plenty of widely scattered showers. With 30 to 40 PoPs, this was well covered in the forecast for today. It is probably 97W affecting Pohnpei and Kosrae, while the it is the next disturbance, currently near the date line, affecting Majuro. The forecast for Eastern Micronesia reflected all this well, so no changes were needed. && .Western Micronesia Update... Like Pohnpei, Chuuk seems to be affect by 97W, causing increased showers. Koror Palau is caught in a band feeding into Bavi which is also creating widely scattered showers. Yap is between two such bands, so it has just isolated showers for today. This was all covered well in the West Micronesia forecast, so no changes were needed. && .Prev discussion... /issued 722 PM ChST Thu Jul 9 2026/ Marianas Synopsis... Radar imagery late this afternoon shows lingering mid-level cloud cover decreasing over the coastal waters, and just a few isolated showers south and west of the islands. Tanapag buoy data and altimetry data show combined seas are roughly between 9 and 13 feet, mainly over the western coastal waters. Discussion... Quiet conditions with light to moderate winds prevail for tonight and Friday with a col area set up near the islands, roughly halfway between Typhoon Bavi to the west-northwest over the Philippine Sea, and Invest 97W, located south of Pohnpei. Models point to the next period of unsettled weather setting up as Invest 97W passes somewhere near or southwest of the area this weekend, after which its trailing monsoon tail will bring showers to the area through early next week. Latest model trends indicate that the monsoon pattern behind 97W may be a little more impactful than the disturbance itself, with locally heavy showers becoming more numerous on Monday and Tuesday, and gusty southwest winds beginning to develop around Monday night. As this disturbance is still rated "sub-low" and is not expected to develop in the next several days, uncertainty is still very high as to the exact timing and location of showers and gusty winds. For now, a headline was included in the zone forecast to highlight potential impacts through this time period, and wording for locally heavy showers possible was included from Sunday into midweek. Marine/Surf... Significant west to southwest swells continue to emanate from Typhoon Bavi (09W) and its trailing monsoon pattern, maintaining seas hazardous to small craft. Altimetry and Tanapag buoy data indicate combined seas sustaining over 10 feet across mainly western coastal waters of the Marianas, as seas take longer to relax below hazardous levels than previously expected. So, the Small Craft Advisory has been extended through Friday afternoon, after which decreasing seas may fall below hazardous levels of 10 feet. Additionally, hazardous surf and a high risk of rip currents will continue along north, south, and west facing reefs, due to these elevated distant swells and significant wrap-around effects along the northern and southern reefs of the Marianas. With this, the High Surf Advisory and High Rip Current Risk have been extended through Friday afternoon. Early next week, southwest swell may see a resurgence across the Marianas as another southwest monsoon pattern looks to affect the area. Tropical Systems... Typhoon Bavi exited the Area of Responsibility as it was downgraded from a super typhoon to a typhoon. Winds of at least tropical storm force extend outwards from the center, into the Area of Responsibility, up to 280 nautical miles. For more information on Typhoon Bavi, please refer to the Public Advisory issued by the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM and the Tropical Cyclone Warning issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW. Invest 97W continues to be rated "sub-low" by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center this evening, meaning development into a significant tropical cyclone is not expected during the next several days. A weak, low-level circulation is observed on visible satellite imagery near 3N160E, drifting to the west. Scattered to numerous showers are observed in the vicinity of the invest with most of the coverage located along bands of convergence to the east and to the north. Pulses of shower and isolated thunderstorm development are expected to continue as it drifts to the west, before turning northward by this weekend. Eastern Micronesia... Satellite imagery shows mostly isolated to scattered showers across eastern Micronesia with numerous showers located east of Pohnpei and south of Kosrae along bands of convergence. Shower coverage should be mostly scattered through Friday at both Kosrae and Pohnpei with shower coverage at Majuro topping out at low-end scattered. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible at all sites. For information on Invest 97W, please see the Tropical Systems section. Combined seas of 4 to 6 feet will persist into the weekend. Seas consist of a west-northwest swell and a small, southeast swell at Pohnpei and Kosrae. Seas at Majuro consist of an east swell and a small, south swell. Periods of moderate to fresh south winds will continue through Friday at Pohnpei and Kosrae before easing this weekend. Winds at Majuro will continue to be light to gentle through the weekend. Western Micronesia... A Small Craft Advisory and High Surf Advisory remain in effect for Yap and Palau. A Coastal Flood Advisory was re-issued for north facing reefs of Yap and Palau. For Yap and Palau, satellite imagery shows an outer rainband of Typhoon Bavi to the northwest of both islands, which may provide some showers to both islands later tonight. However, sea states remain the major forecast concern. Altimetry shows combined seas between 12 to 14 feet near Yap and Palau, and the Rumung buoy shows seas between 13 to 15 feet, which are generated by significant north-northwest to southwest swells associated with distant Typhoon Bavi and its trailing monsoon pattern. These factors are creating sea conditions hazardous to small craft, hazardous surf along west and north facing reefs, with a potential for coastal flooding up to a foot or so along north facing reefs. That being said, we are on a slow downward trend, meaning sea and surf conditions are gradually improving. Seas and surf are anticipated to fall below hazardous thresholds as early as Friday afternoon. A short lull in the weather is anticipated for Saturday into Sunday. Then, the convergence zone between a tropical disturbance near the equator and the trade winds is anticipated to bring showers back into the forecast for the beginning half of next week. For Chuuk, a gentle trade-wind regime is expected for the next few days. Seas are expected to be elevated but below the 10 foot threshold needed for an advisory. Around Sunday, weather conditions are expected to become fairly wet as a tropical disturbance is anticipated to pass nearby bringing widespread showers to the region for the beginning of next week. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...High Rip Current Risk until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for GUZ001. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for GUZ001. MP...High Rip Current Risk until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for MPZ001>003. High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for MPZ001>003. Marianas Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for PMZ151>154. && $$ Marianas/East and West Micronesia/Tropical Update: Stanko Marianas: DeCou East Micronesia/Tropical Systems: Whisnant West Micronesia: Bowsher  956 FXUS63 KSGF 092046 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 346 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - 30-60% chance for storms this afternoon, and 40-80% chance Thursday night. Slight Risk for severe weather generally north of Hwy 60 and east of I-49 Thursday and Thursday night. Primary hazards include damaging winds up to 60-70 mph and localized flash flooding. Secondary hazards include hail up to quarters and weak tornadoes. - Flood Watch in effect until 7 AM Saturday. Multiple rounds of storms expected this afternoon/tonight, and Friday afternoon/tonight may bring localized areas up to 3-5 inches of rain. - Slight Risk for severe weather across the Lake of the Ozarks Region Friday. Damaging winds up to 60-70 mph and hail up to half dollars are the main risks. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Somewhat complex features are splayed around our region today. An MCV associated with this morning's activity is currently exiting through east Missouri. A secondary, smaller MCV is just moving out of NE KS into NW MO. At the surface, an outflow boundary from residual morning activity is currently oriented NW to SE from Kansas City, down through Stockton and into south- central MO. This has been slowly lifting NE as a warm front through the early afternoon. Elsewhere, a surface low is over southern KS, which is helping keeping winds more southerly/southeasterly rather than southwesterly. Cloud debris from the morning complex has been hanging around the region, keeping temperatures in the mid to upper 80s across the area. Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening: The MCV moving into NW MO and residual outflow/warm front draped across the area is our focus for new thunderstorm development and potential severe weather this afternoon. From a conceptual model mental picture standpoint, synoptic ascent ahead of the MCV should kickstart storms along the surface boundaries SE of Kansas City. Indeed, the cumulus clouds around the Kansas City area is gaining some better texture. When storms form there, they should move southeast along the warm front/outflow boundary which is producing an SBCAPE gradient across our area (>3000 J/kg SW of the boundary, and <2000 J/kg NE of the boundary). Latest CAMs and WoFS output has been slowly gravitating to this conceptual model with storms developing and moving into our area around 4-5 PM and lasting through the evening. Our 12Z sounding depicted decent inverted-V thermo profiles below 700 mb. This, paired with Theta-E Diffs around 22-25 C, will promote largely a damaging wind threat with storms that form along this region (northeast of a Nevada to West Plains line). Added shear from the MCV influence (0-6 km bulk shear around 30-35 kts), would promote some line segments as well with enhanced winds up to 70 mph possible. There is still a secondary weak tornado threat focused along wherever the warm front/outflow boundary settles this afternoon and evening. Yesterday's discussion mentioned three things that needed to happen for the tornado threat to materialize. A) The MCV enhanced low-level shear and curvature greater than modeled. Check! Our VAD along with RAP analysis shows 35-40 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear, 20-25 kts of 0-1 km bulk shear, and 30-40 kts of 0-3 km shear. Additionally, it all appears to be curved with near 100-150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH (200-300 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH). B) Dewpoints needed to be on the upper-end of the percentile spectrum. Check! Observations across the area depict dewpoints around 72-77 F. C) Temperatures needed to be cooler than forecast to inhibit very high dewpoint depressions and LCLs. Check! Temperatures across the area are in the middle to upper 80s rather than the lower 90s the HRRR had forecasted. This is keeping LCLs a bit lower. All things together introduces a low- end weak tornado risk, especially along the warm front/outflow boundary where added vorticity and surface-based inflow will be available. Flood Watch in effect until 7 AM Saturday Morning: As the night goes on, the nocturnal inversion will settle in and the LLJ will decouple and increase to 30-40 kts. This will overlap the warm front/outflow boundary in which storms will track over during the afternoon. With skinny elevated 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE profiles at the nose of the LLJ along with 1.8-2.0 inch PWATs, additional storms are expected to develop across the eastern Ozarks. Storm motions to the southeast will be parallel to the initiating boundary, increasing the risk for training storms. Efficient rainfall paired with a training risk leads to a flash flooding potential. Therefore, a Flood Watch has been issued for areas east of Miller to Howell Counties. Even just a bit of training could result in localized areas of 3-5 inches of rain within the Watch area. Since storm motions are fast, flooding risk will be localized to areas that see training of multiple storms. These overnight storms are expected to continue through early Friday morning until the nocturnal LLJ dissipates with daytime mixing. Dry periods are then expected Friday morning. Slight Risk for severe storms Friday afternoon and evening: But wait! The synoptic boundary is still expected to hang around the area during the day Friday as only weak zonal flow is over the area. CAMs are actually in pretty good agreement on the location and timing of another MCV moving through the central Plains and being over the Kansas City area Friday afternoon. Lift and enhanced shear ahead of this along the synoptic boundary will focus redevelopment of storms, potentially severe, Friday afternoon and evening. This would be focused within the Lake of the Ozarks region where shear will be better closer to the MCV. As the environment will not change much, multicell clusters with damaging winds up to 60-70 mph will be the main threat, but with a bit better shear forecasted, hail up to half dollars are also possible. A flooding risk will also evolve again Friday night with the LLJ, especially over areas that see the most rain today and tonight. Therefore, the Flood Watch stays in effect through Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms and flooding Saturday: The synoptic boundary will continue to sag southward during the day Saturday. Once again, little change to the environment will keep a severe and flooding risk across the area, but focused mainly across southern Missouri as the boundary moves southward. That said, exact details will become more apparent with mesoscale features that develop overnight Friday. Dry weather returns next week with more seasonable temperatures: An overturning wave break over the northern CONUS into the southeast states will bring more seasonable temperatures to the area to start next week with highs in the middle to upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. In the extended 7-14 day range, the wave break will dip into the Ozarks, bringing another heat dome to the area. The CPC gives a 50-60% chance of Heat Index values exceeding 105 F at some point during the July 14-18 timeframe. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Current satellite imagery depicts only light cloud debris around the TAF sites as a decaying thunderstorm complex exits eastward. As the time period goes on, isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development is expected generally east of the TAF sites generally between 22-06Z, but some storms may sneak into the sites. Have outlined these time periods as PROB30s for now. Otherwise, winds will generally shift from southerly to southwesterly between 18-06Z at 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts at times. Low-level wind shear will also increase overnight to around 40 kts from 230 degrees. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ057-058-070-071- 082-083-097-098-106. && $$ SHORT TERM...Price LONG TERM...Price AVIATION...Price