894 FXUS61 KOKX 092107 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 507 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Low and localized flash flood and strong to severe thunderstorm wind threat for NE NJ and NYC metro into this evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm wind threat late afternoon and evening Friday. Increasingly warm and muggy Friday, with heat indices peaking in the lower to mid 90s on Friday. 2) Isolated showers late Saturday aft/eve, otherwise dry conditions for the upcoming weekend into Monday with seasonably warm temperatures. 3) Heat and humidity build for Tue and Wed next week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered shower and isolated tstm activity will primarily affect NE NJ/NYC metro and surroundings thru this evening ahead of an approaching shearing shortwave in a marginally (locally moderate) unstable and weak shear environment, and a weak surface low pressure wave tracking across the northern Mid- Atlantic, and lee/pre- frontal surface trough approaching from the west. Primary threat will be for localized torrential downpours, with a low and localized flash flood threat (<10 % prob across NE NJ/NYC metro) with high PWATs (2-2.25"), a deep warm cloud layer, and potential for slow moving or briefly back building storms. Higher flash flood threat continues across SE PA and central/southern NJ with higher instability and enhanced moisture transport/convergence with the weak surface wave. Secondary threat of a pulse wet microburst (5% prob across NE NJ/NYC metro) in a marginally unstable and marginal shear profile. The flash flood and severe threat decreases after 7pm as environment gets worked over, instability decreases, and convection slides eastward into less favorable environment. On Friday, northern stream shortwave digs into northern New England, with a bit more in the way of mean troughing across the region, while a convectively enhanced shortwave approaches the region Friday aft/eve. At the surface, this will have a cold front approaching the region in the late afternoon/evening. Latest trend is for a bit slower approach of cold front and weaker moisture convergence with more of a low-level w/sw flow as compared to model runs 24 hr ago, and drier mid-level moisture profile on Friday compared to today. Although trigger is there, focus and moisture/instability environment appears to be weaker than Today. This is pointing to more of an isolated to widely scattered convective threat in the late afternoon/evening (4pm-mid) with low and localized strong to severe (damaging) wind threat in a marginally (locally moderately) unstable, marginal deep layer shear (30-35kt), some mid-level dry air and low-level inverted V sounding environment. Localized strong to damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. Flash flood threat looks very limited compared to today, with slightly lower PWATS (mid-level drying in wake of today's pre- frontal trough), iso to widely scattered storm coverage, and quicker anticipated storm movement. Highs on Friday will come close to 90 degrees in the NYC metro and NE NJ with most other spots reaching the upper 80s on Friday, with max heat indices reaching the low to mid 90s. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Good agreement in mean upper troughing across the NE US this weekend and offshore on Monday, while at the surface Canadian high pressure builds down from southern Canada thru the weekend and overhead by Monday. Trough axis approaches late Saturday/Saturday evening, bringing sct-bkn aft instability cu and potential of late day isolated showers, particularly across interior in a weakly unstable and residually moist airmass. Seasonable temps with comfortably lower Tds on Sunday and Monday as heart of Canadian airmass advects into the region. .KEY MESSAGE 3... General agreement in building central US heat ridge expanding eastward into the region Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing for building heat and humidity locally. Potential for heat advisory thresholds to be hit by Wednesday. Thereafter inherent uncertainty on whether an Aleutian originated upper low deteriorates the ridge enough to suppress the high heat and humidity south of the local region for late week, before building back in for next weekend. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mainly VFR as a weak trough of low pressure approaches the terminals. The main batch of showers and thunderstorms are currently moving south of KJFK and KEWR and pushing eastward. latest CAMs continue to show the potential for additional storms to develop across the region, however timing and placement of storms are still hard to pinpoint. Will continue to keep TEMPOs in the TAFs until 00z. Any convection will be capable of producing MVFR or lower conditions. Additional TSRA possible again on Friday afternoon. For the 30 hours TAFs, have included a PROB30 group. The far eastern terminals, KISP, KBDR, and KGON, Some IFR or lower fog/cigs are expected tonight. Winds will generally be from the S/SW, around 10-15kts this afternoon, with locally higher gusts in any thunderstorms. Winds diminish tonight and become light and variable. Friday morning, winds start off from the North, with some terminals becoming more Westerly in the afternoon ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments likely for timing of convection both today and tomorrow. A few gusts S/SW 15-20kt possible this afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with brief MVFR to IFR conditions possible. Saturday: Chance of MVFR conditions in any showers that develop, otherwise, VFR. Sunday through Monday: VFR. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions thru Fri with modest S/SW flow of 10-15g20kt. Occasional gusts to 25 kt possible for ocean waters west of Fire Inlet, entrance to NY Harbor, and adjacent southern bays this evening with coastal jet development. Seas generally 2 to 4 ft. Sub-SCA conditions continue into Saturday, with high pressure building towards the waters. Potential for a brief period of marginal SCA gusts and seas Sat Night into Sunday in response to strengthening easterly flow between developing offshore low and building high. Likely return to sub-SCA Sun aft into Mon as high pressure builds back in. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents persists through Friday, due to a mixture of 2 ft S wind wave and lingering 1-3 ft SE/E swells. Low to moderate rip risk for Saturday with 1-2 ft southerly swells, and 1-2 ft SE/E wind waves. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NV AVIATION...BC MARINE...NV  890 FXUS66 KOTX 092107 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 207 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions through the weekend. - Breezy west winds through the Cascade gaps Thursday and Friday each afternoon and evening. - Breezy south winds become more widespread Saturday afternoon with the strongest winds up the Okanogan Valley. - Warming trend early next week. && .SYNOPSIS... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will continue through the weekend due to low humidity and breezy winds. A broad ridge building over the west-central U.S. early next week will continue to bring warm temperatures across the Inland Northwest. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Sunday: The main concerns the next few days will be fire weather driven as the inland northwest will see strengthening 500 mb southwest flow as the desert southwest monsoon high pressure deepens. Each afternoon will have dry and breezy winds through much of the region. The main concerning day for fire will be Saturday as a weak wave pivots northward from northwest OR to southern BC in the morning, leaving central and eastern WA vulnerable to breezy southwest winds. The Okanogan valley will be particularly susceptible to these south winds as the upvalley diurnal wind will assist. With the shortwave departing into southern BC and the cold front stalling over the region, synoptic and mesoscale descent will lead to fairly rapid drying. This combination of rapidly drying conditions and breezy winds will lead to rapid fire spread with any new or ongoing fires. There is a small chance (10-15% chance) of elevated showers and thunderstorms Saturday morning on the warm side of the cold front in southeast WA and the ID Panhandle which carries low confidence. Monday through Thursday: Above average temperatures will continue into next week as the monsoon ridge sticks around the region. This timeframe will need to be watched closely for dry lightning events as models are showing increased PWATs. The best chance for wetter thunderstorms will be in far southeast Washington and ID Panhandle where ensembles have PWATs around 125-175% of normal through much of the week. Increased moisture will bring increased chances for cloudy skies, which would keep temperatures cooler. /DB && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs: Widespread VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Breezy winds will persist through the Cascade gaps. Elsewhere, winds have subsided and will generally be 10 kts or less through the period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions regionwide. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 57 90 59 86 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 57 89 59 86 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 52 87 54 84 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 60 96 62 93 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 55 89 56 86 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 56 88 58 85 57 85 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 Kellogg 55 88 57 84 57 82 / 0 0 20 0 0 0 Moses Lake 58 92 57 88 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 64 90 62 86 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 60 92 58 88 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706). ID...None. && $$  126 FXUS63 KDDC 092110 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 410 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...Updated Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Weakening upper level ridge will support afternoon highs today ranging from the low 90s north to the upper 90s/near 100 south. - Severe thunderstorms are possible both Thursday and Friday evening, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat especially on Thursday. - Long dry and quiet stretch after Friday expected with seasonably hot highs in the 90s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The synoptic pattern is a primarily zonal pattern aloft with a weak high pressure over the southern corners of the CONUS. Nearer to the surface, weak surface lows are present immediately along the sides of a subtle surface high pressure system in Colorado. Highs today will continue the relatively consistent streak of mostly 90 degree highs similar to the last few days as well as deeper into the forecast period. The forecast focus then shifts to the storm potential tonight. Since the start of the week, models and ensembles have depicted a notable signal for an MCS tonight. CAMs have storms initiating in Colorado around 2-3 PM and congealing into a line around 7 PM just before crossing into Kansas. The elevated nature will nearly eliminate the tornado threat tonight. Shear via modeled soundings are only around 30 KTs with CAPE around 1500 J/kg. More notably, DCAPE is at 2000 J/kg. If these storms come to fruition as forecast, wind gusts of 60-70 mph are expected. Most CAMs have a section of the line becoming concentrated bowing segment at some points in the overnight. The HRRR has it around 11 PM around highway 183, the NAMNST around 11 PM near highway 83, and the WRF-ARW around 9 PM near highway 83. All this to say there is a wide spread of potential outcomes particularly relating to an enhanced bowing segment with the storms. If this materializes, wind gusts with the enhanced segment could exceed 70 mph wind gusts with damaging winds. Severe hail of around an inch is possible, but remains an auxiliary threat to the wind concerns. The line of storms are forecast to reach nearly the entire CWA, although some area very easily could remain dry with breaks in the line or not covering the entire area. The lowest chance for storms are near the Oklahoma border, but storm chances remain above 20%. Storms are forecast to clear out by around 3 AM. Some CAMs have weaker cells developing ahead of the line, but the chances seems scattered and very uncertain relative to the bulk of the storms in the line. These would likely also pose a hail threat if their strength can be maximized. Localized flooding is possible, but the storms are forecast to move fast enough to mitigate widespread flooding. Friday will again be in the upper 80s/90s. Another round of storms are expected Friday night although more limited in coverage and intensity. The NAMNST has the forecast sounding depicting a similar amount of CAPE and shear. There is a lot more CIN expected to be present and provides a failure point for potential storms. These storms are forecast to occur primarily around 10 PM-2 AM with the best chances in far SW Kansas. Even if storms on Thursday overperform, there is enough time on Friday to recover assuming the cap can be broken. Again with these storms the primary threat is strong winds. Continued monitoring for subsidence and the cap will be needed. The rest of the forecast period is forecast to be dry and is backed up by models. The only notable weather is the continued seasonal heat with highs in the 90s. Winds will most be light out of the south/southeast. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 410 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR will prevail through this TAF period, with varying amounts of mid/high clouds. An isolated thunderstorm is possible near DDC over the next 1-2 hours. A complex of thunderstorms is expected to spread over SW KS tonight, with primary impacts from west to east during the 03-09z Fri time frame. Included convective TEMPO groups at GCK-DDC-HYS for this line of storms tonight, with the primary risk outflow wind gusts to near 50 kts. Model consensus keeps tonight's complex north of LBL, as such kept the LBL TAF dry this update. Winds will remain light through Friday, outside the influence of thunderstorm outflows. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ090. && $$ DISCUSSION...KBJ AVIATION...Turner  666 FXUS61 KPHI 092116 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 516 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect for the eastern shores of Maryland, Delaware, and southern New Jersey until 10 PM. An increase in the potential for severe thunderstorms is possible Friday afternoon into Friday evening (see Key Message 2). && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rain and damaging wind gusts will impact the region through this evening. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop late Friday. 2) Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday night into Saturday. 3) Drier and warmer conditions return by the end of the weekend into next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rain and damaging wind gusts will impact the region through this evening. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop late Friday. Low pressure will organize and develop over the Southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic and will lift north over New Jersey and into the Northeast tonight. A cold front approaches late Friday. Abundant low level moisture is in place across the region with surface dew points in the low to mid 70s, and dew points will creep up by a few more degrees going into this evening. PWATs are in excess of 2 inches across most of the region. As that low lifts north towards the Northeast, some mid-level shortwave energy will pass through the region as a mid-level trough passes through the region. This will be the trigger for showers and thunderstorms to continue to develop across the region. Showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rain have developed already, and activity will increase through the early evening hours. Training of thunderstorms will be likely, and with rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour, possibly as high as 3 inches per hour, will result in flash flooding. A Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of southeast Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia, northern Delaware, and most of New Jersey until midnight. Due to the high dew points, SBCAPE values range from 2000-2500 J/kg with DCAPE values up to 500 J/kg. Thunderstorms that develop will be capable of damaging wind gusts. The Weather Prediction Center has a Slight Risk (2 out of 4) for Excessive Rainfall for most of the area into tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for the Delaware Valley including Philadelphia, the eastern Shores of Maryland, Delaware, and southern New Jersey and a Marginal Risk for (1 out of 5) from around I-195 north to I-78. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect for the eastern shores of Maryland, Delaware, and southern New Jersey until 10 pm. Activity tapers off from west to east, mostly ending by 10 pm for all but southeast New Jersey, and storms will end there by midnight. A warm and humid night on tap for the region with patchy fog developing. Lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Humid conditions continue on Friday with dew points generally in the mid 70s. With daytime temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s, the max heat index values will be in the upper 90s, possibly touching 100. A cold front approaches Friday afternoon, touching off another round of late day showers and thunderstorms, mainly over far western portions of the forecast area (see Key Message 2 for more). KEY MESSAGE 2...Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday night into Saturday. By Friday evening, convection is expected to be ongoing across the area as showers and thunderstorms develop out ahead of a cold front moving southward into the area. Similarly to Thursday, moisture is anticipated to increase ahead of the front, where PWAT values are progged to be in excess of 1.8 inches. This supports that any given shower or storm will have the ability to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding. As of now, the majority of our forecast area is highlighted in an MARGINAL risk (Level 1/4) for excessive rainfall. Held off on expanding the Flood Watch into Friday night due to uncertainty in where the heaviest rainfall will fall today. In terms of the severe weather threat, ML CAPE is expected to reach at least 1000 J/kg with bulk shear values around 30-35 kt. Given better frontal forcing, there looks to be another opportunity for severe weather. As of the 1730UTC/Day 2 update, SPC has upgraded the majority of our area into a MARGINAL risk (Level 1/5) for severe weather with the primary hazard being locally damaging winds. For Saturday, there remains a bit of uncertainty with respect to frontal progression through the area but guidance has trended a bit wetter overall. We now have PoPs in the 20-50% range for area north and west of the I-95 corridor, with PoPs in the 50-80% range for areas southeast of I-95. Again, there remains a flash flood threat on Saturday, primarily for the southern half of the area, which is highlighted in a MARGINAL risk for excessive rainfall. Temperatures will mainly be in the 80s. KEY MESSAGE 3...Drier and warmer conditions return by the end of the weekend into next week. By Sunday and into early next week, guidance is showing an expansive upper level ridge setting up over the northern High Plains. This will yield dry weather and mainly sunny/clear skies across the majority of the Mid-Atlantic region. Temperatures will be around normal for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, but will swing back above normal for Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of today...SHRA/TSRA with MVFR/IFR conds, with ocnl VSBYs as low as LIFR. SHRA/TSRA will taper off from west to east by 00Z. A general S to SW flow at 5 to 10 kt. High confidence overall, low confidence on timing when any given storm will pass over any given terminal. Tonight...SHRA/TSRA will taper off at KMIV/KACY by 02Z. VFR, becoming MVFR or lower by or after 06Z as BR develops. Light S to nearly calm winds. Low confidence. Friday...Primarily VFR. Another round of SHRA/TSRA will impact the terminals in the late afternoon and at night. W winds 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Friday night through Saturday...Prevailing VFR, however periods of sub-VFR conditions are possible. A chance for showers and thunderstorms which may cause locally gusty winds. Saturday night through Tuesday...VFR. No significant weather expected. && .MARINE... Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions through Friday. Southwest winds around 10 to 15 kt will turn west on Friday. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers and thunderstorms through this evening will result in heavy rain and potentially damaging wind gusts. VSBY restrictions in fog possible late tonight and Friday morning. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible late Friday afternoon. Outlook... Friday night through Saturday night...No marine headlines expected. Winds generally between 5-15 kt with seas around 2-3 feet. Sunday through Sunday night...SCA conditions possible. Winds generally between 10-20 kt with seas up to 5 feet. Monday through Tuesday...No marine headlines expected. Winds generally between 10-20 kt with seas around 3-4 feet. Rip Currents... For Friday, winds turn southwesterly, and the swell weakens. Thus, this should result in a LOW risk of rip currents for all beaches. For Saturday, winds turn northerly, and the swell remains weak. Thus, this should result in a LOW risk of rip currents for all beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ060-070-071- 101>106. NJ...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ009-010-012>022- 025>027. DE...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Hoeflich/MPS AVIATION...DeSilva/MPS MARINE...DeSilva/MPS/RCM  519 FXUS61 KPHI 092131 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 531 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Chance of flash flooding has ended across areas north of Philadelphia, therefore the flood watch has been cancelled in these areas. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rain and damaging wind gusts will impact the region through this evening. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop late Friday. 2) Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday night into Saturday. 3) Drier and warmer conditions return by the end of the weekend into next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rain and damaging wind gusts will impact the region through this evening. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop late Friday. Low pressure will organize and develop over the Southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic and will lift north over New Jersey and into the Northeast tonight. A cold front approaches late Friday. Abundant low level moisture is in place across the region with surface dew points in the low to mid 70s, and dew points will creep up by a few more degrees going into this evening. PWATs are in excess of 2 inches across most of the region. As that low lifts north towards the Northeast, some mid-level shortwave energy will pass through the region as a mid-level trough passes through the region. This will be the trigger for showers and thunderstorms to continue to develop across the region. Showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rain have developed already, and activity will increase through the early evening hours. Training of thunderstorms will be likely, and with rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour, possibly as high as 3 inches per hour, will result in flash flooding. A Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of southeast Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia, northern Delaware, and southern New Jersey until midnight. Further north, the atmosphere has stabilized and the flood watch has been cancelled. Due to the high dew points, SBCAPE values range from 2000-2500 J/kg with DCAPE values up to 500 J/kg. Thunderstorms that develop will be capable of damaging wind gusts. The Weather Prediction Center has a Slight Risk (2 out of 4) for Excessive Rainfall for most of the area into tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for the Delaware Valley including Philadelphia, the eastern Shores of Maryland, Delaware, and southern New Jersey and a Marginal Risk for (1 out of 5) from around I-195 north to I-78. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect for the eastern shores of Maryland, Delaware, and southern New Jersey until 10 pm. Activity tapers off from west to east, mostly ending by 10 pm for all but southeast New Jersey, and storms will end there by midnight. A warm and humid night on tap for the region with patchy fog developing. Lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Humid conditions continue on Friday with dew points generally in the mid 70s. With daytime temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s, the max heat index values will be in the upper 90s, possibly touching 100. A cold front approaches Friday afternoon, touching off another round of late day showers and thunderstorms, mainly over far western portions of the forecast area (see Key Message 2 for more). KEY MESSAGE 2...Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday night into Saturday. By Friday evening, convection is expected to be ongoing across the area as showers and thunderstorms develop out ahead of a cold front moving southward into the area. Similarly to Thursday, moisture is anticipated to increase ahead of the front, where PWAT values are progged to be in excess of 1.8 inches. This supports that any given shower or storm will have the ability to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding. As of now, the majority of our forecast area is highlighted in an MARGINAL risk (Level 1/4) for excessive rainfall. Held off on expanding the Flood Watch into Friday night due to uncertainty in where the heaviest rainfall will fall today. In terms of the severe weather threat, ML CAPE is expected to reach at least 1000 J/kg with bulk shear values around 30-35 kt. Given better frontal forcing, there looks to be another opportunity for severe weather. As of the 1730UTC/Day 2 update, SPC has upgraded the majority of our area into a MARGINAL risk (Level 1/5) for severe weather with the primary hazard being locally damaging winds. For Saturday, there remains a bit of uncertainty with respect to frontal progression through the area but guidance has trended a bit wetter overall. We now have PoPs in the 20-50% range for area north and west of the I-95 corridor, with PoPs in the 50-80% range for areas southeast of I-95. Again, there remains a flash flood threat on Saturday, primarily for the southern half of the area, which is highlighted in a MARGINAL risk for excessive rainfall. Temperatures will mainly be in the 80s. KEY MESSAGE 3...Drier and warmer conditions return by the end of the weekend into next week. By Sunday and into early next week, guidance is showing an expansive upper level ridge setting up over the northern High Plains. This will yield dry weather and mainly sunny/clear skies across the majority of the Mid-Atlantic region. Temperatures will be around normal for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, but will swing back above normal for Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of today...SHRA/TSRA with MVFR/IFR conds, with ocnl VSBYs as low as LIFR. SHRA/TSRA will taper off from west to east by 00Z. A general S to SW flow at 5 to 10 kt. High confidence overall, low confidence on timing when any given storm will pass over any given terminal. Tonight...SHRA/TSRA will taper off at KMIV/KACY by 02Z. VFR, becoming MVFR or lower by or after 06Z as BR develops. Light S to nearly calm winds. Low confidence. Friday...Primarily VFR. Another round of SHRA/TSRA will impact the terminals in the late afternoon and at night. W winds 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Friday night through Saturday...Prevailing VFR, however periods of sub-VFR conditions are possible. A chance for showers and thunderstorms which may cause locally gusty winds. Saturday night through Tuesday...VFR. No significant weather expected. && .MARINE... Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions through Friday. Southwest winds around 10 to 15 kt will turn west on Friday. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers and thunderstorms through this evening will result in heavy rain and potentially damaging wind gusts. VSBY restrictions in fog possible late tonight and Friday morning. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible late Friday afternoon. Outlook... Friday night through Saturday night...No marine headlines expected. Winds generally between 5-15 kt with seas around 2-3 feet. Sunday through Sunday night...SCA conditions possible. Winds generally between 10-20 kt with seas up to 5 feet. Monday through Tuesday...No marine headlines expected. Winds generally between 10-20 kt with seas around 3-4 feet. Rip Currents... For Friday, winds turn southwesterly, and the swell weakens. Thus, this should result in a LOW risk of rip currents for all beaches. For Saturday, winds turn northerly, and the swell remains weak. Thus, this should result in a LOW risk of rip currents for all beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ070-071-101-102. NJ...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ016>022-025>027. DE...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Hoeflich/MPS/RCM AVIATION...DeSilva/MPS MARINE...DeSilva/MPS/RCM  164 FXUS62 KJAX 092139 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 539 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Isolated Afternoon Thunderstorms Today & Friday. Storm coverage increases this weekend into early next week. Locally heavy rainfall possible Sunday through Tuesday - Heat Advisory NE FL and SE GA Today and Friday. Peak Heat Index: 105-111 Most Areas. Major Heat Risk through Friday and Saturday && .UPDATE... Quick update to increase coverage of showers/storms across NE FL from JAX metro area southward through the I-95 corridor and St. Johns River Basin, these should generally last through sunset before weakening and pushing offshore with gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Also, updated Friday forecast to include Heat Advisory for coastal SE GA and all of NE FL for heat indices to peak out in the 107-110F range as Max Temps will reach into the upper 90s/near 100F for most locations. Some drier air will mix down across inland SE GA where heat indices will top out in the 104-107F range, and have left out of the Heat Advisory for now. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights through Tonight: - Heat Advisory Area-Wide Today - Isolated Afternoon and Evening Storms High pressure ridge axis will remain across central and south Florida maintaining SW flow across the area. Another hot day is in store with prevailing subsidence and a pinned Atlantic sea breeze. Highs will rise into the mid-upper 90s with max heat indices in the 105-110 F range. A Heat Advisory is in effect area-wide through this evening. Highest heat indices will likely be along the coast and St Johns river basin. A pocket of relatively drier air combined with subsidence will suppress convection today across the Suwannee Valley, I-10 corridor and portions of inland SE GA. Lingering tropical moisture (PWATs 2+ in) over north-central FL will allow for a few showers and storms to develop along the Gulf sea breeze as it shifts inland this afternoon. Activity increases in coverage as the Gulf sea breeze interacts with the pinned Atlantic sea breeze along the coast later this afternoon into evening. Meanwhile, an upper shortwave will pass through inland SE GA providing enough lift and moisture to trigger a few showers and storms mainly in the Ocmulgee/Altamaha river basins later this afternoon into evening. Convection wanes by midnight. Overnight lows will be in the mid- upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights During This Period: - Heat Advisory potential for Friday and Saturday - Lower convective chances Friday, but increased chance Saturday Low to mid level ridge will remain the primary weather feature of influence for Friday and most of Saturday as well before starting to break down and weaken on Saturday Night. Mean layer moisture will continue to remain somewhat limited, as PWATs average generally in the 1.7 to 1.8 inch range during the short term period, with some pockets as low as around 1.6 inches across southeast GA on Friday. There does look to be an uptick in available moisture Saturday, especially over northeast FL and therefore also expecting an uptick in rain chances across this same area. Steering flow looks to remain out of the southwest, though the weakening flow will also more of a southeasterly sea breeze to develop, especially on Saturday. This sea breeze making at least some progress inland combined with the progressing Gulf coast breeze will bring the focus area for highest PoPs/stronger t'storm potential to be generally over interior/central areas. The main concern continues to be dangerous heat risk for both Friday and Saturday, as high temperatures rise into the mid to upper 90s, even at the immediate Atlantic coast with southwest flow. Max temps may hit century mark in some spots each afternoon, however, the "saving grace" that may prevent any heat products will be excellent mixing of some of the drier air aloft each afternoon, limiting dew points to the upper 60s for many and therefore average heat indices around the 103 to 108 range. In addition, more higher clouds and gradual increase in convective coverage could also limit this potential. Will let the next shift make the final decision on this later tonight. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Main Highlights During This Period: - Unsettled Pattern Develops for Sunday Onward - Not as hot Monday to Wednesday High pressure ridging remains weak and generally south of the region for most of the long term period as a frontal boundary drops southward towards the region Sunday and Sunday Night, becoming diffuse over/just north of the region for the next several days thereafter. The stalled boundary and continued southwest flow/moisture advection will result in higher coverage of showers and t'storms daily for at least Sunday through Tuesday, and possibly into Wednesday as well. This rainfall will remain overall beneficial to the lingering drought, though locally heavy rainfall and/or training of heavy rainfall will elevate the risk for excessive rainfall/flooding. Temperatures drop a few degrees by Sunday, with more cloud cover and rain coverage dropping temps even further towards or slightly below normal moving towards Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions continue through period. SW flow develops again today and increase to around 10 kts. The Atlantic sea breeze will be pinned to the coast only causing winds to shift SSE at SSI and SGJ in the afternoon. Showers and storms look to be limited to coastal TAF sites this afternoon into the evening. Have placed VCTS/PROB30 for SGJ but with lower confidence near SSI and CRG, have left VCSH for now. && .MARINE... High pressure ridge will remain anchored across central and south Florida this week as low pressure troughing develops to the north. This pattern will maintain a southwest flow through early afternoon followed by late afternoon and evening wind surges from the south and an increase to Small Craft Exercise Caution wind speeds. The offshore flow will allow for a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorm over the local coastal waters through Friday, with increased chances of thunderstorms Saturday through early next week. Mariners should expect locally strong wind gusts and frequent lightning with any developing thunderstorms. Rip Currents: Low to moderate risk of rip currents continues through the end of the week due to fairly low surf conditions and a mainly offshore flow. Enhanced potential occurs each afternoon/evening with the south-southeast wind surge in the wake of the sea breeze. Surf remains generally in the 1-3 feet range. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Areas Of High Dispersions Inland Today And Friday - Heat Advisory In Effect Today High pressure ridge will prevailing just south of the area through Saturday. Drier than normal conditions are forecast today through Saturday before rain chances begin to increase late weekend and into early next week as a frontal boundary approaches from the north. Above average temperatures and dangerous maximum afternoon heat index values expected through Saturday. Southwesterly surface winds continue through Friday, with areas of high afternoon dispersion inland but especially inland southeast GA each day. Despite drier air in place, minRH will remain above critical values, in the 35 to 45% range away from the coast. Fog Potential and other remarks: Significant fog potential is not expected through Friday night. Erratic wind gusts possible in and near thunderstorms, and at times, at a distance due to outflows. && .CLIMATE... Summer heat continues. There is potential for some locations to get to the century mark today with probability of this occurrence at about 30 to 40 percent. These probabilities look a bit higher for Friday. For the next few days, here are the record high temperatures that are within 3 degrees of the current forecast: July 9th: KJAX: 101/1879 KGNV: 99/1932 KAMG: 100/1986 KCRG: 101/2016 July 10th: KJAX: 102/1879 KGNV: 99/1914 KAMG: 99/1980 KCRG: 99/2016 July 11th: KGNV: 100/1900 KAMG: 100/1980 KCRG: 99/1998 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 75 98 74 98 / 20 20 10 10 SSI 80 95 80 97 / 40 20 0 10 JAX 76 100 76 98 / 30 30 10 50 SGJ 77 96 76 96 / 40 30 10 30 GNV 74 98 74 96 / 20 50 20 50 OCF 75 98 74 96 / 20 40 10 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024- 030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232- 233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for FLZ021-023-024- 030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232- 233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633. GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149- 151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for GAZ153-154-165- 166. MARINE...None. && $$  099 FXUS63 KDDC 092138 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 438 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - Weakening upper level ridge will support afternoon highs today ranging from the low 90s north to the upper 90s/near 100 south. - Severe thunderstorms are possible both Thursday and Friday evening, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat especially on Thursday. - Long dry and quiet stretch after Friday expected with seasonably hot highs in the 90s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 438 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Updated to issue a heat advisory for Barber county, where heat index at P28 has been 110-112. Also added pops for the southeast counties, where storms have quickly developed along a confluence zones amid very strong instability. CAM consensus is coming into agreement that a strong MCS will favor the northern zones late this evening, and then track toward the east/northeast zones later tonight. First severe thunderstorm watch is being issued now for Hamilton county. Coordination with SPC suggests another severe thunderstorm watch is likely for much of SW KS later this evening into early Friday morning. Primary risk continues to be strong to damaging winds of 50-70 mph tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The synoptic pattern is a primarily zonal pattern aloft with a weak high pressure over the southern corners of the CONUS. Nearer to the surface, weak surface lows are present immediately along the sides of a subtle surface high pressure system in Colorado. Highs today will continue the relatively consistent streak of mostly 90 degree highs similar to the last few days as well as deeper into the forecast period. The forecast focus then shifts to the storm potential tonight. Since the start of the week, models and ensembles have depicted a notable signal for an MCS tonight. CAMs have storms initiating in Colorado around 2-3 PM and congealing into a line around 7 PM just before crossing into Kansas. The elevated nature will nearly eliminate the tornado threat tonight. Shear via modeled soundings are only around 30 KTs with CAPE around 1500 J/kg. More notably, DCAPE is at 2000 J/kg. If these storms come to fruition as forecast, wind gusts of 60-70 mph are expected. Most CAMs have a section of the line becoming concentrated bowing segment at some points in the overnight. The HRRR has it around 11 PM around highway 183, the NAMNST around 11 PM near highway 83, and the WRF-ARW around 9 PM near highway 83. All this to say there is a wide spread of potential outcomes particularly relating to an enhanced bowing segment with the storms. If this materializes, wind gusts with the enhanced segment could exceed 70 mph wind gusts with damaging winds. Severe hail of around an inch is possible, but remains an auxiliary threat to the wind concerns. The line of storms are forecast to reach nearly the entire CWA, although some area very easily could remain dry with breaks in the line or not covering the entire area. The lowest chance for storms are near the Oklahoma border, but storm chances remain above 20%. Storms are forecast to clear out by around 3 AM. Some CAMs have weaker cells developing ahead of the line, but the chances seems scattered and very uncertain relative to the bulk of the storms in the line. These would likely also pose a hail threat if their strength can be maximized. Localized flooding is possible, but the storms are forecast to move fast enough to mitigate widespread flooding. Friday will again be in the upper 80s/90s. Another round of storms are expected Friday night although more limited in coverage and intensity. The NAMNST has the forecast sounding depicting a similar amount of CAPE and shear. There is a lot more CIN expected to be present and provides a failure point for potential storms. These storms are forecast to occur primarily around 10 PM-2 AM with the best chances in far SW Kansas. Even if storms on Thursday overperform, there is enough time on Friday to recover assuming the cap can be broken. Again with these storms the primary threat is strong winds. Continued monitoring for subsidence and the cap will be needed. The rest of the forecast period is forecast to be dry and is backed up by models. The only notable weather is the continued seasonal heat with highs in the 90s. Winds will most be light out of the south/southeast. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 410 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR will prevail through this TAF period, with varying amounts of mid/high clouds. An isolated thunderstorm is possible near DDC over the next 1-2 hours. A complex of thunderstorms is expected to spread over SW KS tonight, with primary impacts from west to east during the 03-09z Fri time frame. Included convective TEMPO groups at GCK-DDC-HYS for this line of storms tonight, with the primary risk outflow wind gusts to near 50 kts. Model consensus keeps tonight's complex north of LBL, as such kept the LBL TAF dry this update. Winds will remain light through Friday, outside the influence of thunderstorm outflows. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ090. && $$ UPDATE...Turner DISCUSSION...KBJ AVIATION...Turner  869 FXUS61 KOKX 092151 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 551 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Quickly diminishing flash flood and severe wind threat early this evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm wind threat late afternoon and evening Friday. Increasingly warm and muggy Friday, with heat indices peaking in the lower to mid 90s on Friday. 2) Isolated showers late Saturday aft/eve, otherwise dry conditions for the upcoming weekend into Monday with seasonably warm temperatures. 3) Hot and humid conditions build for Tue and Wed next week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered shower and isolated tstm activity will primarily affect NE NJ/NYC metro and surroundings thru this evening ahead of an approaching shearing shortwave in a marginally (locally moderate) unstable and weak shear environment, and a weak surface low pressure wave tracking across the northern Mid- Atlantic, and lee/pre- frontal surface trough approaching from the west. Primary threat will be for localized torrential downpours, with a low and localized flash flood threat (<10 % prob across NE NJ/NYC metro) with high PWATs (2-2.25"), a deep warm cloud layer, and potential for slow moving or briefly back building storms. Higher flash flood threat continues across SE PA and central/southern NJ with higher instability and enhanced moisture transport/convergence with the weak surface wave. Secondary threat of a pulse wet microburst (5% prob across NE NJ/NYC metro) in a marginally unstable and marginal shear profile. The flash flood and severe threat decreases after 7pm as environment gets worked over, instability decreases, and convection slides eastward into less favorable environment. On Friday, northern stream shortwave digs into northern New England, with a bit more in the way of mean troughing across the region, while a convectively enhanced shortwave approaches the region Friday aft/eve. At the surface, this will have a cold front approaching the region in the late afternoon/evening. Latest trend is for a bit slower approach of cold front and weaker moisture convergence with more of a low-level w/sw flow as compared to model runs 24 hr ago, and drier mid-level moisture profile on Friday compared to today. Although trigger is there, focus and moisture/instability environment appears to be weaker than Today. This is pointing to more of an isolated to widely scattered convective threat in the late afternoon/evening (4pm-mid) with low and localized strong to severe (damaging) wind threat in a marginally (locally moderately) unstable, marginal deep layer shear (30-35kt), some mid-level dry air and low-level inverted V sounding environment. Localized strong to damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. Flash flood threat looks very limited compared to today, with slightly lower PWATS (mid-level drying in wake of today's pre- frontal trough), iso to widely scattered storm coverage, and quicker anticipated storm movement. Highs on Friday will come close to 90 degrees in the NYC metro and NE NJ with most other spots reaching the upper 80s on Friday, with max heat indices reaching the low to mid 90s. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Good agreement in mean upper troughing across the NE US this weekend and offshore on Monday, while at the surface Canadian high pressure builds down from southern Canada thru the weekend and overhead by Monday. Trough axis approaches late Saturday/Saturday evening, bringing sct-bkn aft instability cu and potential of late day isolated showers, particularly across interior in a weakly unstable and residually moist airmass. Seasonable temps with comfortably lower Tds on Sunday and Monday as heart of Canadian airmass advects into the region. .KEY MESSAGE 3... General agreement in building central US heat ridge expanding eastward into the region Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing for building heat and humidity locally. Potential for heat advisory thresholds to be hit by Wednesday. Thereafter inherent uncertainty on whether an Aleutian originated upper low deteriorates the ridge enough to suppress the high heat and humidity south of the local region for late week, before building back in for next weekend. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mainly VFR as a weak trough of low pressure approaches the terminals. The main batch of showers and thunderstorms are currently moving south of KJFK and KEWR and pushing eastward. latest CAMs continue to show the potential for additional storms to develop across the region, however timing and placement of storms are still hard to pinpoint. Will continue to keep TEMPOs in the TAFs until 00z. Any convection will be capable of producing MVFR or lower conditions. Additional TSRA possible again on Friday afternoon. For the 30 hours TAFs, have included a PROB30 group. The far eastern terminals, KISP, KBDR, and KGON, Some IFR or lower fog/cigs are expected tonight. Winds will generally be from the S/SW, around 10-15kts this afternoon, with locally higher gusts in any thunderstorms. Winds diminish tonight and become light and variable. Friday morning, winds start off from the North, with some terminals becoming more Westerly in the afternoon ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments likely for timing of convection both today and tomorrow. A few gusts S/SW 15-20kt possible this afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with brief MVFR to IFR conditions possible. Saturday: Chance of MVFR conditions in any showers that develop, otherwise, VFR. Sunday through Monday: VFR. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions thru Fri with modest S/SW flow of 10-15g20kt. Occasional gusts to 25 kt possible for ocean waters west of Fire Inlet, entrance to NY Harbor, and adjacent southern bays this evening with coastal jet development. Seas generally 2 to 4 ft. Sub-SCA conditions continue into Saturday, with high pressure building towards the waters. Potential for a brief period of marginal SCA gusts and seas Sat Night into Sunday in response to strengthening easterly flow between developing offshore low and building high. Likely return to sub-SCA Sun aft into Mon as high pressure builds back in. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents persists through Friday, due to a mixture of 2 ft S wind wave and lingering 1-3 ft SE/E swells. Low to moderate rip risk for Saturday with 1-2 ft southerly swells, and 1-2 ft SE/E wind waves. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NV AVIATION...BC MARINE...NV