564 FXUS63 KGLD 092202 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 402 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs largely in the 90s are expected for the rest of the week. - Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 10 PM MDT this evening for western portions of the area, mainly along and west of Highway 27. - A few severe storms are possible Friday afternoon and evening, mainly along and south of I-70. - Increasing signal for a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions starting this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 128 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Overview: Modest westerly flow aloft will persist over the Tri- State Area, on the northeast periphery of an upper level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest. Light ESE-SE flow will prevail in the lower levels (surface to 850 mb), on the eastern periphery of a broad, diurnally waxing/waning lee trough in CO. Today-Tonight: Expect highs in the upper 80's to lower 90's and overnight lows in the mid 50's to mid 60's, coolest in eastern CO. Guidance suggests that light upslope flow and modest DPVA associated with small amplitude disturbances in westerly flow aloft will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the Colorado Front Range, Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide (west of a line from Limon to Akron, CO and Sidney, NE) by 2-4 pm MDT this afternoon, and that said activity will grow upscale into clusters over eastern CO (~5-6 pm MDT) and ultimately evolve into a linear mesoscale convective system /MCS/ that sweeps eastward across northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska late this afternoon and evening (~6-10 pm MDT). Damaging winds are expected to be the primary severe weather hazard, though a few instances of large hail are possible with any isolated/discrete storms during initial development in CO late this afternoon. Despite weak low-level flow and modest mid-level flow, significant and/or widespread damaging wind is possible if linear organization results in the development of a consolidated cold pool (low confidence worst case scenario). Fri-Fri night: With relatively little change in the synoptic pattern, sensible weather conditions will largely be a function of mesoscale phenomena, namely.. where, and to what degree/extent, environmental conditions are altered by convection this evening and early Fri morning. In a stagnant synoptic pattern with weak low-level flow, convective overturning/stabilization in the wake of an MCS tends to decrease convective potential (in the same area) the following day. In this case, high resolution guidance suggests that a mesoscale high in the wake of the aforementioned MCS will shunt diurnal thunderstorm development southward to the Raton Mesa, southeast CO and southwest KS.. south of Highway 40. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 144 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The upper level ridge currently extending west from the Desert Southwest into the Pacific Ocean will strengthen over the Four Corners Region and shift/expand north during this part of the forecast. Any storm activity over the mountains will be directed to the north instead of the east. This will put the Plains and Great Basin under the dome of high pressure. The ridge will cause an approaching upper level trough to be deflected to Southern Canada. Highs will be in the 90s and lows will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s, which is near normal. However lows in the low 70s may move in over the eastern part of the forecast area toward the end of next week. Heat index values will be near normal for this time of year. However heat index values may increase over the east toward the end of next week if lows do only cool into the low 70s. Relative humidity values will fall to around 20% over East Central CO by the middle of next week, with higher relative humidity values to the east. This is still above fire weather concerns, but something to be aware of given the drying fuels in Colorado. Wildfire smoke may affect the eastern part of Colorado depending on where the ridge is centered. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Sub-VFR conditions and strong westerly winds associated with a scattered thunderstorms are possible at both terminals this evening, mainly between ~01-06Z. Patchy MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled-out ~09-15Z Fri morning (similar to this morning). VFR conditions will otherwise rule through the TAF period. ESE to SE winds at 7-13 knots this aft-eve will become light and variable overnight (in the wake of storms). Variable to ESE winds at 5-10 knots are expected to prevail throughout the day on Friday. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...JTL AVIATION...Vincent  643 FXUS66 KPDT 092204 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 304 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry conditions will persist through the week - Breezy to locally breezy conditions through most of the week in the Cascade gaps and OR Columbia Basin - Elevated fire weather concerns for wind and relative humidity in the Cascade Gaps through Saturday, then elevated fire weather concerns for unstable conditions and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday && .DISCUSSION...Today through Sunday: Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a deck of cumulus pushing into far northeast OR, while the remainder of the forecast area is under mostly clear skies. At the surface, breezy winds have developed through the Cascade gaps, but are having a tough time pushing further east into the Columbia Basin and central OR. Through Saturday, an upper level low in the Gulf of Alaska is expected to drop down to Vancouver Island then slide into southern BC. Ahead of the upper low, flow aloft will turn more southwest, allowing for slight warming into the lower to mid 90s in the lower elevations Friday afternoon. Saturday and Sunday, lower elevation temperatures are expected to lower back into the mid 80s to lower 90s behind the upper low exit. The exception is going to be the Snake River area along the ID/OR border. Temperatures in the river valley are expected to increase up to 105 degrees Friday and Saturday, bringing HeatRisk into the upper moderate to lower major category. Otherwise, the upper low approach will result in increasing winds through the Cascade gaps Friday and Saturday, with west to northwest winds 20-30 mph and gusts up to 40 mph developing in the Kittitas valley and the eastern Gorge. This will bring elevated fire weather conditions into these areas, but a weak push of moisture with the incoming trough may keep relative humidity values just above critical thresholds. Of the two days, Friday will see the biggest threat, though probabilities of critical fire weather conditions being met is widely 25-45% across the Basin and central OR, however there is some localized areas of 50-75% chances in the OR Columbia Basin. At this time, have opted not to issue Red Flag warnings. By Sunday, weak troughing will be left over from the main low exiting the region. While temperatures will moderate between Saturday and Sunday, winds will become locally breezy in the afternoon (confidence 65-80%). Monday through Wednesday: Monday into Tuesday, there is moderate confidence (55-65%) that the PacNW will remain under a southwest flow aloft while a secondary upper low dives down and sets up off Vancouver island. The persistent southwest flow aloft will lead to increasing unstable conditions for Monday, which will bring elevated fire weather concerns to our existing fires over the southern Blue Mountains. A monsoonal moisture push rounding the upper high over the southwest CONUS will also bring a low chance (10-15%) of an isolated thunderstorm threat from the central OR Cascades to the Elkhorn crest Monday afternoon. By Tuesday, chances (15-25%) for isolated to scattered thunderstorms will spread across the high terrain between the Central OR Cascades and Wallowa county, bringing a elevated fire weather threat due to lightning. As of this discussion, confidence is moderate (55-65%) that red flag warnings may be needed for Monday and Tuesday. Heat will be the secondary concern through this period, as temperatures are expected to warm back into the 90s across the lower elevations (confidence 65-85%). However, the lack of upper level ridging over the region will limit how hot it will get across the region, with chances of hitting the 100 degree mark only 15-35% across portions of the Columbia Basin. Tuesday night into Wednesday, uncertainty grows amongst ensemble cluster solutions in regards to what happens with the upper level troughing. Solutions range from the trough weakening as it comes onshore, slowly coming onshore, or remaining offshore the PacNW. Looking for the most impactful solution, the slow moving onshore trough solution during this period (about 28% of members) would result in another round of thunderstorm activity across the mountains of the forecast area. Lawhorn/82 && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will mainly be 10 kts or less. However, both DLS and PDT have had wind gusts to around 25 kts and 20 kts, respectively today. These winds will decrease this evening to 10 to 15 kts at DLS and around 10 kts at PDT. Winds are expected to gust again on Friday to around 25 kts at DLS and 20 kts at PDT. && .FIRE WEATHER...Breezy Cascade gap winds will continue into the weekend, producing an elevated threat of fire weather conditions. Afternoon RHs will generally be in the teens to mid 20s across the region through the period. Early next week, temperatures will be on the rise, as well as unstable conditions over the eastern Oregon mountains. In this area, a low chance (10-15%) of isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday, with slight chance (15-20%) for isolated to scattered thunderstorms Tuesday. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 56 90 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 61 92 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 59 95 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 59 93 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 60 93 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 56 86 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 50 88 48 88 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 54 93 55 93 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 53 95 53 96 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 59 87 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...Heat Advisory from noon Friday to 7 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ050. && $$ DISCUSSION...82 AVIATION...82 FIRE WEATHER...82  251 FXUS66 KLOX 092212 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 312 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS...09/225 PM. Moderate heat impacts will continue into next week, though there will be slight cooling over the weekend. Monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will be possible starting Sunday. Temperatures will rise again on Tuesday and my reach Major Heat Risk levels, with the monsoonal moisture adding to the discomfort from the heat. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...09/309 PM. High pressure is currently centered over the area, and will drift towards the four corners region through the weekend. 500 mb heights over SoCal will gradually trend downwards each day but still remain above normal. Temperatures will generally remain warm through the weekend, with today being the warmest day followed by a slight cooling trend through Sunday inline with the 500 mb heights. Highs will top out between 5 to 10 degrees above normal during the short term forecast period. Humidity will increase starting late Saturday which will add to any heat discomfort. Heat Advisories are in effect until Tuesday morning (when the Extreme Heat Watch will go into effect) for many areas away from the coast including Downtown Los Angeles. Moderate HeatRisk is expected for areas in the Advisory, which is a moderate risk of heat-realted illness for those sensitive to heat or working outdoors. When the center of the high pressure system settles over the Great Basin area, southeasterly flow over SoCal will shuttle monsoonal moisture into the area. PWATs of nearly 1.5 will be possible across Los Angeles County, which is a considerable value. There will be a 10-20 percent chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening on starting Sunday, with the greatest chances for the mountains of Los Angles and Ventura Counties. Hazards with any storm may include lightning (fire starts possible) and brief flash flooding, though predictability at this point for any one location is low. Marine layer clouds are likely to be more widespread across the coasts and possibly Paso Robles each morning in the short term, and areas of dense fog will be possible especially along the Central Coast. Gusty onshore flow will occur in the afternoons and evening across the Antelope Valley and foothills, and elevated fire weather conditions will continue for this area as well. .LONG TERM (MON-THU)...09/311 PM. High pressure aloft will encompass much of the western half of the CONUS to start the extended periods, centered across the intermountain west. This will result in southeasterly flow across the local area, helping to steer in some monsoonal moisture around the periphery of this high over the course of next week. As this ridge expands to the southwest over the middle of next week, expect heights aloft to rise and for temperatures to climb further, with a potential for extreme heat across parts of the local area. With all this in mind, there have been no changes to the previous headlines with a heat advisory in effect through Tuesday (for moderate heat - a level 2 of 4) and an extreme heat watch for next Tuesday through Thursday when temperatures are expected to warm further. Regarding the monsoonal moisture, global models paint a fairly consistent picture that there should be some showers and thunderstorms across at least parts of the local area for several days. While the exact location and timing of convective activity several days out is uncertain, the most favored ares will be across the interior mountains and deserts each day from the late afternoon through evening hours, highly dependent on any embedded disturbances that could help force more widespread activity. At this time, we are thinking a 10-20% chance of a storm each day should cover this potential, with additional refinements as we get closer in time/certainty. Otherwise, the prolonged period of warm weather rounds out the rest of the story, with slightly above normal temperatures and noticeably more humid conditions both Monday and Tuesday, followed by a bump in temps over the middle to latter portion of the week that is currently covered by the aforementioned excessive heat watch. && .AVIATION...09/1719Z. At 1643Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1100 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 66000 ft deep with a temperature of 25 C. High confidence in TAFs for KSBA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF. Fair confidence in TAFs for KSBP and KSMX with a 30 percent chc of VLIFR conds 10Z-15Z. VFR conds could occur +/- 1 hour from fcst. Good confidence in TAFs for KOXR and KCMA with a 15 percent chc of IFR cigs 13Z-16Z for KOXR. Moderate confidence in TAFs for KSMO, KLGB and KLAX. VFR transition could be off by +/- 90 minutes and cigs off by 300 ft. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chc of no cigs. Moderate confidence that MVFR/IFR conds will arrive between 0600Z and 0800Z. Good confidence that any east wind component will be AOB 6kt. KBUR...High confidence in TAF. && .MARINE...09/152 PM. For the outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds are expected to continue through at least Saturday morning. Large 10-12 ft seas will subside late Friday night. SCA level NW-W winds, are expected to continue for the waters for the waters around Point Conception through tonight before starting to diminish late tonight into Saturday morning. Going into midday Saturday, SCA conditions are expected to come to an end for these waters and should remain well below for the weekend. For the inner waters south of Point Conception, conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels. && .BEACHES...09/152 PM. A south to southwest swell will continue to affect the coastal waters through next week. With the swell, the potential for larger surf and greater risk for rip currents will continue. High tides are expected to increase this weekend going into next week with Monday expected to be the highest tide of 7.0 to 7.6 ft above MLLW. There is the potential for some minor coastal flooding next week with the high tides and south swell. One thing that will need to be watched into next week will be the potential of a greater south to southwest swell from potential tropical development. Thunderstorms still continue to be possible starting Sunday and going through next week with a 10-20% chance. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 38-88-343>345-353-368-372-373-375>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through Thursday evening for zones 38-88-341>345-347>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Friday for zones 645-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT Saturday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Saturday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Schoenfeld/Rossi AVIATION...SF MARINE...SF BEACHES...SF SYNOPSIS...SR/RS weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  736 FXAK69 PAFG 092220 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 220 PM AKDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler conditons are expected today across southern portions of the Interior. This will quickly switch back to a warming and drying trend as an upper-level ridge builds up over eastern Alaska through the start of the weekend. Southerly flow will return across the eastern Alaska which will enhance the warming and drying trend. In addition, this will allow for gap winds to return to the Alaska Range by Saturday. Recent rainfall seen over the Alaska Range have loosened soil and root systems, which could lead to downed trees with the stronger winds. Broad troughing will be setting up over western Alaska by the start of the weekend, which will allow for wetting rains throughout the weekend for the West Coast and Western Interior. && .KEY WEATHER MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... - Highs in the 70s and 80s are expected in the northern Interior, with a heat advisory in effect for the Yukon Flats where temperatures will reach around 85F. Temperatures will be cooler in the southern Interior today before warming into the mid 70s on Friday. - Rain is expected to continue along southeastern portions of the Interior through the late afternoon with additional rainfall between 0.15" and 0.50" with the heaviest in the Alaska Range. - Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from the White Mountains to Tanana northward and northern Fortymile Country and along the AlCan Border on today and Friday. - Southerly gap winds through the Alaska Range will strengthen Saturday afternoon, with potential gusts up to 60 mph through Isabel and Windy Pass. - Warming/drying trend expected this weekend with Saturday potentially being the warmest day so far this season. West Coast and Western Interior... - Temperatures cool slightly with highs in the lower 70s in Interior valleys today. Along the coast, highs will be in the 50s/60s. - Stronger southwesterly/westerly winds with gusts up to 20 mph will be possible throughout the western Interior Valleys through tonight. Winds lull Friday before strengthening again Saturday with the next approaching low from the Bering. - Fog and low stratus have moved in from the Bering along portions of the West Coast and will linger through the latter half of the week. - Wetting rain expected across much of the area throughout the weekend. North Slope and Brooks Range... - Warm temperatures persist through today. Highs warm into the 50s near Utqiagvik to around 80 in the Arctic Plains. A heat advisory is in effect for the Arctic Plains through tonight. Max temperatures on the North Slope will be closer to 70 on Friday and Saturday, and into the 60s on Sunday. - Isolated thunderstorms will continue to be possible in the Central Brooks Range and Arctic Plains today. Thunderstorm chances move to the eastern Brooks Range by Friday. - Widespread rain will reach the Western Brooks Range from the south on Saturday and may continue into the Western North Slope on Sunday. && .FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION... Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a broad area of directional shear across the southern portion of the CWA, with values increasing west to east. The upper-level pattern continues to show a positively tilted ridge slowly building up through the end of the week from the Kuskokwim Valley to the Eastern Brooks Range. A weak shortwave will ride S-SW across the southeastern portions of the Interior today. This will continue to provide the area with persistent cloud cover through the early afternoon and another chance of wetting rains across the Upper Tanana. Amounts are not expected to be as much as what was seen Wednesday night into Thursday morning, however 0.25" to 0.50" is currently expected. With the ridge strengthening, this will bring a quick warmup in temperatures across the Interior Friday and Saturday. Looking west, broad troughing over the Bering will continue to hold strong as a series of shortwaves moves down from Siberia. On Friday, a shortwave will be moving eastward, on the north side of the Aleutians, reaching Bristol Bay by the late evening. This will bring in a swath of moisture across Western Alaska, bringing back to back days of wetting rains over the weekend. Looking back east, the progression of this shortwave will turn the ridge over the Interior more meridional. This will set up southerly flow across much of the eastern half of the state by the mid to late weekend. This will help enforce the warming and drying pattern in areas under the ridge, especially over the Yukon Flats and areas just north of the Alaska Range with the help of downsloping. That said, Saturday has the potential to be one of the warmest days so far this season for some of these areas. One thing that could limit the warmer temperatures is some energy from a shortwave moving across the central portion of the state, that could bring patchy cloud cover at times. Southerly flow over the Alaska Range will allow for another round of gap winds through the passes on Saturday. Models do not have much agreement when it comes to the track of the previously mentioned shortwave, which will play a role into how much of a southerly influence there will be across the eastern portion of the state. In addition, history has shown models to do poorly with ridge breakdown. With both of these in mind, this will be closely monitored over the next several runs as the slightest of change can result in different weather conditions. By the end of the weekend, broad troughing is looking to set up, once again, over the western half of the state as more shortwaves moves SE from Siberia. With this, a colder airmass has the potential to move across portions of the West coast. This could bring a chance for a rain/snow mix by the start of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Certainly, a complex fire weather season. Three primary synoptic features will drive our fire weather concerns over the next 48 hours: the first being a broad longwave trough digging into the Bering, and the second, a ridge of high pressure shifting into Canada. Lastly, general troughing in the Gulf of Alaska will likely serve as a source of moisture, with southeasterly waves moving across the Yukon bringing continued chances for thunderstorms. Touching on the trough first, this system will be largely responsible for bringing wetter and cooler conditions into lower/middle Yukon and west, particularly over the weekend where we will likely see widespread rain. The heaviest rainfall will be over the southwest and Seward Pen, shutting down fire weather. As the west soaks, southerly winds increase across much of the AK Range over the weekend, bringing warm temps to the Central Interior and concerns for gap winds for Windy/Isabel; however, amble wetting rains Thursday have moderated fire weather concerns for the Tanana Flats. We may be a bit too optimistic on RH for Delta Junction, we will watch how Friday pans out and work with our fire partners at AFS as we assess fuels and moisture. Gusts 50 to 60 mph likely in Isabel Saturday into Sunday. Also, focus continues to be on the ridge, with model guidance starting to shift the ridge axis further into the eastern portion of the state. This will bring continued concern for hot/dry across the Yukon Flats, where isolated thunderstorm activity over the next 48 hours could lay down some new ignitions or holdovers. Saturday, thunderstorm outflow boundaries look particularly strong over the Yukon Flats/Eastern Brooks. Stay tuned. Troughing continues over the west next week. Extent/magnitude of an area of high pressure over the eastern interior and how this system brings inverted troughs and thunderstorms into the southeastern interior, continues to serve as the main subject of interest. && .HYDROLOGY... 0.50" to 2.5" of rain fell overnight and this morning across much of the southeast Interior and Eastern Alaska Range. This will cause some slight rises in water levels across the Tanana River and its tributaries. Levels are expected to remain below Minor Flood Stage, but will peak in action stage this weekend. The main concern is water over gravel bars as of now. && .EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7... A Bering Sea low is expected to continue transporting moisture over Northern Alaska. By Monday afternoon, thunderstorm chances will have almost entirely moved over the border into Canada. Models are showing a slight indication of some instability over the high terrain near Eagle as well as the Eastern Brooks Range. Storm chances are expected to decrease over the next couple of days as well. The highest accumulations are expected for the Brooks Range and the Western Alaska Range through Tuesday, with the West Coast, specifically near the Norton Sound, joining the mix by Wednesday. Southerly gap winds are expected to pick up through the Alaska Range passes by Tuesday morning with gusts up to 35 mph possible. A cooling trend is likely to start by the end of the weekend and continue throughout the week. The Interior is likely to see highs in the low 70s with mid 50s to mid to upper 60s expected for the West Coast and North Slope. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Heat Advisory for AKZ833. Heat Advisory for AKZ806-808. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-805. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856. && $$ SYNOPSIS.......Twombly KEY MESSAGES...Twombly SHORT TERM.....Twombly FIRE WEATHER...Park EXTENDED......Srinivasan  915 FXUS66 KMFR 092225 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 325 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Typical summer weather for the end of this week: Continued slightly hotter than normal temperatures and slightly lower than normal humidities, gusty afternoon winds, strongest east of the Cascades. * Trough approaching the Pacific Northwest Friday into the weekend resulting in tightening pressure gradients and gusty southwest winds (25-35 mph) Friday-Sunday. Gusty winds combined with low RHs bring a Red Flag Warning for much of Modoc, southeast Klamath and southwest Lake counties (winds strongest/RHs lowest on Saturday). * A thunderstorm risk develops early next week. Best chances on Tuesday, and east of Cascades and across northern California with lesser, but not negligible chances for the West Side. && .DISCUSSION...Forecast confidence/model agreement is high through Monday. This short term forecast is the story of two troughs near the southeast coast of Alaska, and a persistent ridge centered over the 4 corners/Great Basin. The approach of the first trough will tighten pressure gradients on Friday, with peak values during the afternoon and early evening expected to produce critical conditions for much of Modoc, southeast Klamath and southwest Lake counties. It will remain very dry, and the gradient will barely weaken on Saturday and Sunday, with peak speeds expected to be just a couple or few mph weaker than Friday. Hot, and dry conditions continue on Friday and Saturday with a stable air mass. At this juncture, the NBM does not indicate a significant enough risk of thunderstorms to warrant including in the official forecast. But, that may change over the next couple of days. There is a potential for thunderstorms that is greater than zero, as early as Sunday afternoon. Convection is expected to be capped by warm air aloft over at least southwest Oregon. Weak instability and an influx of mid-level moisture may produce a few cells from northern California into south central Oregon. Mid and upper level moisture increases early Monday into Monday night. There is a likelihood of upper level clouds hindering heating, but also some potential for thunderstorms with higher than normal bases...increasing the potential that any thunderstorms that develop end up being dry thunderstorms. Uncertainty increases Tuesday with models diverging roughly into a camp that keeps the second trough on the GFS idea of a track across British Columbia and northern Washington, and the ECMWF solution that forms a cut-off offshore from northern Oregon. There is actually a third potential that a cut-off forms closer to shore. The first scenario would most likely produce a slight chance risk for the east side, the second scenario of the trough offshore is favored by a slightly larger portion of ensemble members and would limit the convective risk, but the third scenario of a trough near to our coast is a classic pattern for convective development. As such, there is a potential for the thunderstorm risk at mid- week to either diminish or increase in comparison to Tuesday. Uncertainty is high late in the week. In any case, any noticeable cooling is highly unlikely for next week. && .FIRE WEATHER...Updated at 200 PM Thursday, July 9, 2026... Seasonable temperatures and humidities are expected for the remainder of the week, with elevated to critical fire weather concerns increasing Friday and continuing through the weekend. Areas with critical fire weather conditions have led to the issuance of a Red Flag Warning starting Friday and continuing through Sunday. Strong gusty southwest to west winds (25-35 mph) are expected Friday through the weekend. Daytime humidities will be in the mid to low teens on Friday. When combined with these gusty winds, critical fire weather conditions are likely across Modoc county and southeastern portions of Fire Weather Zone (FWZ) 624 for Friday and continuing through Sunday. While wind speeds decrease overnight with improved overnight humidities, fire weather conditions will remain heightened Friday through Sunday. Critical fire weather conditions are expected to peak on Saturday when humidities trend lower (low teens/single digits possible), winds increase some (25-40 mph) and these combined conditions are more widespread across the East Side. Conditions improve slightly on Sunday with wind speeds on the lower end of the spectrum and humidities trend ever so slightly higher. That said, critical fire weather conditions are likely to continue for Sunday. A potential thunderstorm pattern is shaping up for the first half of next week as the flow becomes south to southwesterly which could send monsoonal moisture into the region. Latest model guidance has shifted a bit on the overall pattern set up. The region will remain wedged between strong high pressure to the east and incoming troughs from the west/northwest. The proximity of those troughs could be enough to keep the flow more southwest or even westerly, and the more westerly the flow, the lower the chances for thunder, especially west of the Cascades. Uncertainty remain, but currently looks like the best chances for thunderstorms would be across eastern areas Monday-Wednesday. We'll need to monitor the potential for any shortwaves/tropical activity that models try to develop and send our way early next week. On the other hand, if models continue this more eastward shift of the incoming troughs/southwest to west flow, we could potentially see an extended period of winds/RH concerns vs thunderstorms. Stay tuned as details become more clear with future model runs. && .AVIATION...09/18Z TAFs...LIFR marine stratus is expected to persist near Brookings through around 19Z, with clear skies to follow this afternoon until around 02Z this evening. Coastal LIFR is expected north of Cape Blanco, and also near Brookings this evening through Friday morning. All other areas will remain VFR through the TAF period with the typical increase in breezes this afternoon and evening. && .MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Thursday, July 9, 2026...A thermal trough will maintain gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas into this evening. Very steep, hazardous warning level seas are expected south of Gold Beach, and generally beyond 5 nm from shore and there could be a brief period of northerly gales in this area in the late afternoon and early evening. Conditions improve later tonight through Friday into Saturday morning as the thermal trough weakens and winds ease, but steep seas will continue for all areas south of Cape Blanco through Friday evening. Gusty north winds will increase again from early on Sunday into Sunday evening, with steep seas likely south of Cape Blanco. Improved conditions are expected to follow on Monday before the thermal trough strengthens again from Tuesday into the latter half of next week. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Friday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ624. CA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Friday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ285. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. && $$  433 FXUS63 KIWX 092235 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 635 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms are possible this and tonight. A few of these storms may be strong, capable of isolated gusty winds and heavy rain. - Thunderstorms are also possible Friday and Saturday but severe weather is not expected. - Turning hot and dry next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 112 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Agreement between the GFS and ECMWF on slowly bringing a cold front/thermal gradient southward between today and Friday night/Saturday morning would indicate an, at best, marginal severe weather risk with weak wind shear (<30 kts), but ample instability (>2500 J/kg MUCAPE on the NAM) as well as 1000+ J/kg of DCAPE. Trying to track forcing is an issue with weak impulses passing through including a weak positively tilted trough. A weak low level jet (~25 kts) shows itself in MI from this morning into the afternoon and then there's also an attempt to organize a low level jet out of MO overnight. It could be that the MO jet gets cut off and moisture transport fails though. The midday jet around MI appears to be colocated with large scale ascent at times. However, the MO jet is slightly removed from the large scale ascent on the ECMWF potentially contributing to its failure. Two distinct peaks in PWATs around 2 inches or so passing through include during peak heating this afternoon as well as overnight. Sfc dew points exceed 70F while 850 mb dew points exceed 10C. Meanwhile, as the previous shift noted, the better moisture content identified by theta-e is farther west and this appears to slide by to the southwest of the area or just casually graze our southwest this afternoon into overnight. Models are all over the place for Friday with some of the guidance still retaining PoPs across the whole area whereas there is a smattering of guidance keeping things south of US-24/US-30 area. The more southward progression could be possible if a cold pool/outflow boundary sets up from overnight convection. All of this considered, am fine with the marginal risk of severe weather advertised by SPC, which could be aided by cell collisions, differential heating, and the high theta-e airmass. Wind and heavy rain appear to be the main threats along with lightning. With the cold front slowly pushing through, the dew points exceeding 70F and highs exceed 90F in our southeast, this would indicate apparent temperatures in the 90s, at least, for this afternoon. These do appear to slowly trend lower as highs dip back into the 80s with the FROPA. Dew points abate later Friday/Friday night with the FROPA. It is interesting to see that there are still models trying to produce showers in the relative dryness on Saturday. I'm not sold on this, but will include some slight chances for that. The GFS appears out to lunch, but the NAM/ECMWF appear to have a better handle on things, which show the greatest chance during the afternoon Saturday. After Saturday, a high pressure system and mid level ridging stall across the area providing dry weather from Sunday until at least the middle to end of next week (7/15-7/17 time frame) as a backdoor front attempts to come in. It appears to be a sort of MCS pattern with plenty of heat around. 850 mb temps creep above 18C and sfc dew points surpass 70F Tuesday and Wednesday of next week indicating potential heat headlines if enough insolation can be had. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 629 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms through 08-09z Fri. Definitely hard to pin down exact timing and location with instability based storms popping up due to weak outflow boundaries pushing across the area. MVFR cigs/vsbys in thunderstorms/showers. Light westerly to northerly winds through the TAF period with possibly stronger gusts near and around thunderstorms. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Roller AVIATION...Andersen  438 FXUS63 KTOP 092235 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 535 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low chance (10-15%) for isolated showers/storms to redevelop this afternoon with better chances (30-60%) coming overnight along/southeast of I-35. - Widely scattered showers/storms will be possible through Saturday night, followed by drying conditions into next week. - Near average temperatures hold through the weekend, then gradually warm through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite imagery and upper air analysis showed zonal flow across much of the central and northern Plains. Minor MVC's were located across northwest MO and southeast KS/SW MO. The 17Z surface map showed a weak cold front extending from central IA, southwest across the northern and western counties of CWA, then southwest into far northwest OK. Today through Saturday night: The weak front will continue to push southeast through the afternoon hours. The RAP is the only CAM showing convection along the front during the late afternoon and early evening hours across the southeast counties of the CWA. The higher instability will be located across southeast KS late this afternoon and the effective shear will be under 20 KTS, so I do not expect any of these storms that may develop across the southeast counties to be severe. Late this afternoon and evening, the CAMs show thunderstorms developing across western KS as easterly low-level winds advect richer moisture west. Most CAMS show a complex of storms developing across southwest and west central KS. These storms wil move east and begin to weaken as they move into the CWA. I cannot rule out some isolated damaging wind gusts through the early morning hours of Friday across southwest counties of the CWA. The NSSL ARW and the 17Z HRRR show these storms remaining more intense as they push east across the southern counties of the CWA between 10Z and 13Z, generally south of a Council Grove to Ottawa line. Most the CWA will remain dry through the night into Friday morning. The surface front will remain stationary across southern KS through Friday and into Saturday. Weak mid-level perturbation in the near zonal mid level flow may provide enough ascent for scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Saturday night. The higher instability will be located south of the CWA. However, if the boundary shifts farther north, into the CWA, then there maybe a few strong to severe thunderstorms. However, The effective shear will be weakening as H5 ridge across the southwestern US builds north and then northeast across the central and northern high Plains. Sunday through Thursday: The center of the upper ridge will shift east and remain stationary across northeast NE/southeast SD. The mid level flow across KS will become easterly. A number of TUTT lows, perturbations, will ride west along the southern periphary of the H5 ridge across south TX. The ascent will cause widespread thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast. The easterly low-level flow across the Plains, combined with deep moist convection along the gulf coast will limit the transport of richer Gulf moisture farther north. So, even though high temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 90s next work week, the surface dewpoints will remain in the 65 to 70 degree range, which will keep heat indicies in the 90 to 100 degree range. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 535 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The last several runs of the HRRR continue to suggest TS should be weakening as they approach MHK overnight. So will continue with a PROB30 group for now while keeping TOP and FOE dry. Think VFR conditions should prevail unless TS impact a terminal. Winds look to remain light. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gargan AVIATION...Wolters  481 FXUS64 KFWD 092236 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 536 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and dry conditions will persist through Friday with heat index values near 105 degrees. - Rain and storm chances return to the region late Saturday through Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 127 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The long-term portion of the forecast remains in good shape as we continue to focus on the return of storm chances late this weekend into early next week. Recent guidance is trending towards better coverage of showers and storms Sunday into Monday, especially across North Texas as the front pushes south into our area. If the front slows down and remains over North Texas on Tuesday, rain chances will likely increase over the next few days. Outside of this, our thinking on impacts remain the same. More details below. Sanchez && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 127 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The heat will continue to be the main story of the short-term period as an upper level ridge expands across our region. As of 1 pm, temperatures are sitting in the low to mid 90s and will continue to climb to the upper 90s to near 100 degrees across the region. Daytime mixing and the breezy conditions should help keep the heat index values generally near or below 105 degrees, with the exception of some locations across the northeast where good moisture remains present. Any seabreeze convection this afternoon will stay mainly along the TX Coast, far from our area. Another typical hot summer day is in store for us on Friday as the ridge remains in control. Sunny skies will prevail with highs ranging from the mid 90s in Central TX to upper 90s/near 100 degrees in North Texas. While we could see some isolated showers or storms across the Brazos Valley region, most of this activity should remain south and east of our area. Sanchez && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 155 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Hot and dry weather will continue Friday and Saturday as mid level ridging expands but changes will be on the way for the latter half of the weekend into early next week. Until then, high temperatures at or just above 100 degrees will continue with heat index values near 105. Ridging will expand and shift westward over the Intermountain West by late Saturday which will allow troughing to dig through the Central and Southern Plains by Saturday night. A weak frontal boundary will also slide southward into the Plains during this time and should serve as a focus for convective development mainly to our north. In addition, we may see an uptick in sea breeze convection to our southeast which may spread into our far southeast counties late Saturday afternoon/evening. With weak synoptic forcing for ascent spreading through the Southern Plains late Saturday night, ongoing convection to our north should spread south toward the Red River during the late overnight hours into early Sunday. It's a little uncertain how much activity will be ongoing during this time, but the weak frontal boundary should sag south toward the I-20 corridor during the day Sunday. Moisture pooling along this boundary and continued weak ascent atop an unstable boundary layer should result in a quick uptick in convection during the day Sunday across much of North Texas where we'll have 30-60% PoPs. A moisture rich atmosphere featuring fairly weak low and mid level flow should favor slow moving thunderstorms with potential for locally heavy rainfall. Given the broad but continued synoptic ascent through the overnight hours with little capping, convection may persist well into the nighttime hours Sunday night beyond the normal summertime diurnal convective cycle.The weak frontal boundary and mid level trough will continue to sag farther south on Monday with rain chances continuing primarily along and south of I-20 where we'll continue with 40-60% PoPs. As we get into the middle part of the week, the mid level ridging to the north will expand a bit farther south and should push the bulk of the rain/storm chances well into Central TX. We'll continue with some 20-30% PoPs Tuesday into Wednesday mainly south of I-20. While the threat for severe weather appears to be pretty low during this time, we will have to monitor for some potential heavy rainfall given a setup favoring persistent moisture transport into North and Central TX and persistent synoptic forcing for ascent. In an uncapped and unstable environment, we can often see bands of training rainfall set up with little advance notice of location. That being said, the Sunday-Tuesday timeframe will feature some of the higher rain chances that we've seen in a while along with slightly cooler temperatures given the increased cloud cover. Things will wind down toward the middle and latter part of next week with temperatures climbing back above seasonal normals. Dunn && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 535 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A narrow pressure gradient between a surface ridge over Florida and a lee cyclone over northwest Oklahoma will maintain the 10-20 kt south winds through Friday. An elongated ridge aloft will otherwise provide VFR and overall quiet aviation weather area- wide. Will continue with the one line TAFs at the 00Z issuance. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 100 81 99 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 77 96 77 95 / 0 0 0 10 Paris 78 96 78 95 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 81 100 80 99 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 81 100 80 98 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 81 100 81 99 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 79 98 78 97 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 77 98 78 97 / 0 0 0 10 Temple 76 95 76 95 / 0 10 0 20 Mineral Wells 77 99 76 97 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sanchez LONG TERM....Sanchez AVIATION...30  498 FXUS64 KMAF 092236 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 536 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 534 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Low chance (10-20%) of isolated storms over higher terrain areas both this afternoon and Friday afternoon. - Warmer than average temperatures persist through Friday before cooler conditions set in through early next week. - Shower/storm chances increase Sunday through early next week, especially south of the I-20 Corridor. The potential for multiple rounds of rain will increase the risk of flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Upper ridging centered near the Desert Southwest and northwestern Mexico remains the dominant weather maker within the Short Term period. Hot and dry conditions continue for most across the region. Highs in the upper 90s to triple digits are expected Friday afternoon. The hottest conditions will be near/along the river valleys, where highs are progged to reach just shy of 105 degrees (up to 107 degrees in portions of the Big Bend). Tonight and Friday night, temperatures generally fall to the 70s. Although most stay dry, breezy south/southeast winds bring low (<20%) rain chances to the higher terrain and portions of New Mexico each afternoon of the period. The best odds of isolated showers/storms will be near the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains. Some models indicate a possibility for rainfall over parts of Eddy and Lea counties Friday evening. Conditions trend slightly cooler and wetter ahead. More details below! && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The current forecast remains on track, with warm and predominantly dry conditions early this weekend giving way to a more active and cooler period through the beginning of next week. The upper ridge currently centered to the west will continue to weaken its effects over the area Saturday as it shifts toward the Northern High Plains. This transition will allow upper-level disturbances to move over the forecast area, leading to increased chances for rain and thunderstorms by Sunday. A weak cold front will drop into the region early next week, serving as a focus for additional lift and thunderstorm development through Wednesday. Moist, easterly upslope flow will persist at the surface during this time. Due to increased moisture and the potential for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, there is a risk of flooding across portions of the region early nest week. Additionally, while cooler temperatures are expected, multiple rounds of thunderstorms may impact outdoor activities. Expect a cooling trend starting Sunday, with afternoon highs moderating into the mid-80s to low-90s Tuesday through Thursday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 534 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow, elevated overnight due to the LLJ. Convective chances will be nil, but forecast soundings develop a cu field early Friday afternoon, w/bases ~ 7-9 kft AGL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 73 98 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 73 102 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 72 98 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 71 98 71 95 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 70 94 69 91 / 0 10 0 0 Hobbs 70 99 69 96 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 62 94 62 94 / 10 20 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 73 97 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 72 97 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 73 100 72 97 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...95 LONG TERM....27 AVIATION...99  646 FXUS65 KPIH 092240 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 440 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat expected through the weekend with many locations nearing or reaching 100 degrees Saturday and Sunday. heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings have been issued for many areas. - Drier weather returns today through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 111 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Main impact will be the heat expected to come. Friday will be quite hot with highs low to mid 90s lower elevations and 80s mountains. By Saturday through Monday many low elevation high temperatures will reach 100 degrees with the mountains in the 80s to lower 90s. Many heat warnings and advisories have been issued for Saturday and Sunday. Will see some slight cooling at monsoonal moisture returns Tuesday through Thursday as the upper ridge pushes east and there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms returning with the increased moisture. Even though slightly cooler it remains hot with above normal temperatures in the Tuesday through Thursday time frame. Low to mid 90s expected in the lower elevations and still mainly 80s in the mountains. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 433 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 High pressure and synoptic subsidence is keeping skies from having CIGs with much of the time SKC until Fri afternoon. Then KBYI may experience cirriform CIGs. Also, possible SHRA afternoon at KBYI and KPIH. With bases barely getting to FL100, would not expect much to reach the ground. Possible TSRA just beyond the forecast period for KDIJ and KIDA. With no weather around, VSBY should be unlimited. Wind will have a lot of VRB04 or less time, with some evening wind up to 15KT and G20KT, then again Fri afternoon. When it has enough speed for a direction, should be mostly slope-valley driven phenomenon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1224 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Isolated showers and thunderstorms still possible today and Friday afternoon, but coverage and intensity should be much lower than previous afternoons as moisture continues to wane. Any brief shower or thunderstorm could still produce gusty and erratic winds, but this will be more of an exception than the rule. The ridge of high pressure advertised for several days will establish over the next 24 hours or so, bringing much warmer temperatures to the area and drier conditions overall. We'll see temperature climb from near or slightly above average today to 10-15 degrees above average by Saturday and Sunday. RH values will drop to values firmly in the low teen to single digits each afternoon. Overnight lows will be much warmer than usual as well, limiting overnight recovery over the weekend. Winds will generally be light today and Friday, but begin to increase Saturday and Sunday. These will be the next critical fire weather days as fuels continue to dry out and cure from any recent rain they may have received. The ridge generally sticks around into early next week, but we begin to see monsoonal moisture wrap around the western edge of the high, bringing precipitable water values back up leading to better coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but also limiting RH minimums. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 9 PM MDT Sunday for IDZ051>055-060>068-070-075. Extreme Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 9 PM MDT Sunday for IDZ056>059. && $$ DISCUSSION...GK AVIATION...Messick FIRE WEATHER...TAX  819 FXUS63 KDLH 092243 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 543 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable temperatures continue Friday before a notable warm up through the weekend with increasing humidity. Potentially dangerous heat and humidity is possible Sunday, Monday, and into early next week. - Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday. An isolated thunderstorm Friday afternoon and evening could be strong to severe with brief gusty winds and large hail. A strong storm or two is also possible Saturday afternoon, mainly across northwest Wisconsin. - Minimal precipitation in the extended forecast, with low rain chances limited to mid to late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1252 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Higher pressure sits over the region today with light and variable winds. Temperatures are close to seasonable, with mostly sunny skies. Although, seeing the afternoon cu develop just inland along the lake breeze. Would not rule out a brief shower this afternoon along those breezes. Any activity diminishes this evening. Cannot rule out fog again overnight, as marine fog expands inland, mainly along the South Shore. There is a weak cool front back to our west, associated with an upper level disturbance, that will push slowly eastward tonight and Friday morning. There is a low chance decaying showers or storms will push into the Northland late tonight, but the airmass will be less supportive of storms by that time, with little to no CAPE and lower lapse rates. Tomorrow, the front will arrive and provide a focus for shower and storm development, with 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and around 20kts of bulk shear during the afternoon. Lapse rates are not great tomorrow with increasing mid level heights as an upper ridge approaches. Coverage might not great, but if a storm can get going and sustain itself, large hail will be possible. There is a Marginal risk (1 out of 5) across the Brainerd Lakes region, mainly for large hail. Another weak disturbance arrives Saturday, and could interact with what will likely be a weak frontal boundary sitting across the area. With plenty of instability around with increasing temps and moisture, cannot rule out a few showers or storms, mainly across northwest WI during the afternoon. A strong upper ridge builds across much of the CONUS for early next week, bringing the heat with it. Temperatures will be close to record values Sunday through Tuesday, and 10+ degrees above normal for mid July. Moisture will also hang around, with dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s. Will likely need heat headlines with this combination of temperatures in the 90s and increased moisture for Sunday through Tuesday. Little to no rain is expected under the ridge. The ridge will start to pull back to the west mid week, and could see weak disturbances drop down into the Northland providing low rain chances. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 544 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR with light winds. Perhaps some fog creeping in overnight - mainly at KHYR. Think it will miss the KDLH terminal to the south. A front may bring in shower activity Friday afternoon near KINL. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 1252 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Winds are generally light and variable this afternoon, but would not rule out a wind gust to 10kts at the head of lake where winds are more persistently out of the northeast. Any stronger winds will diminish this evening. Marine dense fog from this morning has pulled back from the coasts into the open water. While guidance is overzealous with keeping it closer to the coast through this afternoon, the setup does support the fog returning overnight, particularly tothe Outer Apostles and the South Shore. A mostly light northeast wind is expected across Western Lake Superior Friday, which will lead to some less-than-one-foot chop in the afternoon, but nothing hazardous. Some rain showers and thunderstorms may be able to develop Friday afternoon and evening, moving from northwest to southeast across the lake. An isolated thunderstorm or two could become strong with brief gusty winds, a quick downpour, small hail, and frequent lightning. Very isolated shower and thunderstorm development is possible again Saturday, but less likely than Friday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1252 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Winds are generally light and variable today, with no precipitation expected. With temperatures warming into the low to mid 80s, expect afternoon RH values to drop into the 25-40% range, with some locally especially dry spots near the Canadian border dropping below 25%. Friday, southerly winds return with some gusts of 12-18mph possible in the afternoon. This should bring with it some improved humidity (afternoon RH 35-50%) and a 20-40% chance for some scattered showers and thunderstorms across north central Minnesota during the afternoon with low chances shifting eastward to the Arrowhead in the early evening. Any accumulations would be fairly light, a couple hundredths to a couple tenths. Temperatures warm through the weekend, but dewpoints in the 60s remain, so afternoon RH should fairly consistently drop into the 35-45% range, with the chance for some particularly dry spots to reach 30%. Some breezier southwest winds are possible Sunday for north-central Minnesota. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HA AVIATION...Wolfe MARINE...HA/Levens FIRE WEATHER...HA/Levens  031 FXUS62 KMFL 092246 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 646 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 644 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Heat indices between 105-110 expected over the next few days. Take appropriate precautions during extended periods outdoors. - Few late day storms today; scattered to numerous storms Friday and Saturday, and some could be strong. - Even higher heat indices are possible late this weekend into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1253 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Expanded chance PoPs around the lake region and SW FL for late this afternoon into early this evening as a few storms are expected similar to last night. Lowered PoPs from the baseline NBM for tomorrow and Saturday as SAL continues across the region. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 112 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A general synoptic picture of the eastern CONUS consists of a shortwave/closed low over the MS/TN Valleys, a shortwave off the Northeast US coast, ridging over Florida, and a TUTT over the far southeastern Bahamas. Southeast flow facilitated by the high pressure over the western Atlantic and Florida peninsula will continue to advect a dusty Saharan air mass across the area today which should limit any afternoon thunderstorm potential and lead to mainly clear skies throughout the day. While the drier and dusty air could act to bring down dewpoints if it mixes to the surface, heat index values will still climb into the 105-110 degree range as the southeast flow should still continue to advect moisture at the lower levels. A Heat Advisory will be in effect for all of South Florida today. Take extra precautions when outside, such as hydrating and wearing lightweight and loose fitting clothing. Limit strenuous outdoor activities and take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. For more on what you can do to prepare for and mitigate heat illness, visit ready.gov/heat. The departure of this Saharan air mass is expected on Friday and subsequently, rain chances will increase with thunderstorms developing mainly across interior and Southwest Florida Friday afternoon. PWATs climb from the 1.3-1.5 inch range to the 1.8-2 inch range by Friday evening which is near normal for early July. The aforementioned TUTT will be at our doorstep by late Friday which could also act to enhance the coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms enhanced divergence aloft associated with the TUTT will remain to the south of the area and it will also be weakening as it approaches from the Southeast. With enhanced low level moisture, another very hot day is expected on Friday with heat index values reaching the 105-110 degree range. Another heat advisory is probable. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 112 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The shortwave across the central CONUS will continue to drift east and elongate as it slowly phases in with the northern stream as a shortwave moves across the Great Lakes region. Simultaneously, the aforementioned TUTT will continue to progress just south of the region heading into the weekend. High pressure remains across the western Atlantic which will maintain southeasterly flow through the weekend and will advect an additional plume of Saharan dust across the area by mid-weekend. Ahead of the arrival of drier air, scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop across interior and Southwest Florida on Saturday afternoon. PWATs begin to drop back into the 1.3-1.4 inch range on Sunday and Monday which should limit the convective potential towards the end of the weekend into early next week. Maximum rain chances will drop into the 20-40% through Wednesday. Hot conditions are expected to continue through the period, especially for locations that don't receive relief from afternoon thunderstorms. High temperatures will reach the mid-upper 90s each afternoon with heat index values ranging from 105-110 degrees. Additional head advisories will be likely through the remainder of the weekend and into the upcoming work week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 644 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Few storms over SW FL should dissipate quickly this evening and then mainly VFR conditions expected overnight with light easterly winds. Winds become SE around 10 kts on Friday with a mid to late afternoon westerly Gulf breeze at APF. Few storms possible later in the day with APF most likely to be impacted. && .MARINE... Issued at 112 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Winds and seas will increase a bit through the remainder of the week as the western edge of high pressure spreads across the SW Atlantic and SE Gulf. Showers and storms are unlikely today, but rain chances will increase Friday into Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 82 93 81 93 / 10 30 20 20 West Kendall 79 93 78 93 / 10 30 20 20 Opa-Locka 81 94 80 94 / 10 30 20 20 Homestead 81 93 80 93 / 10 30 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 82 92 81 93 / 10 30 20 30 N Ft Lauderdale 82 92 81 92 / 10 30 20 30 Pembroke Pines 82 95 82 95 / 10 30 20 30 West Palm Beach 80 93 80 93 / 10 20 20 40 Boca Raton 82 91 81 91 / 10 30 20 30 Naples 78 96 78 93 / 20 40 30 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168- 172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rizzuto LONG TERM....Rizzuto AVIATION...CMF  012 FXUS64 KHUN 092245 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 545 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 158 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Mainly low to medium (20-50%) for showers and thunderstorms are expected through this afternoon, with better chances (up to 60-80%) on Saturday and Sunday afternoons. - A low chance of strong to severe storms are forecast across the area Friday and Saturday. Gusty to damaging winds are the main threat, along with heavy downpours and frequent lightning. - Humid conditions persist with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon with heat index values around 100 through Saturday. Lower heat index values are expected early next week. && .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Afternoon storms will gradually wane after 00z, with model soundings showing a stout inversion forming between 03-06z. However, low chances (10-30%) for a few showers and thunderstorms will persist through the overnight hours, mainly along residual outflow boundaries. Lightning and locally heavy downpours will the main threats with this activity. A bulk of the convection will remain well to our north along the TN/KY border closer to the stalled front and most locations will remain dry. Otherwise, partly cloudy conditions are forecast overnight with scattered to broken bands of mid/high clouds passing through. Overnight lows will bottom out in the low to mid 70s in most locations. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 1041 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A generally zonal pattern should be in place for the end of the week. A series of upper systems in the westerlies will move across the area into Saturday. One of these systems is forecast to move in a WNE-ESE manner across the area during Friday. This next system should bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area. Given the system moving mainly across our northern areas, a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) risk for severe weather is forecast, with the greater probability of storms in the afternoon to early evening. Strong to damaging wind gusts is the main threat. Heavy downpours and frequent lightning will also accompany the stronger storms. Before storms arrive, expect another very warm day with highs ranging from the upper 80s and lower 90s, and lows Friday night in the lower 70s. Heat index values from the mid 90s to 103 are expected. More upper level systems are set to impact the area on Saturday. These WNW upper flow driven upper disturbances will in part help to bring another round of strong to severe thunderstorms across the area. These storms should cover more of the area with a risk of strong to damaging wind gusts. A Marginal Risk for severe weather covers all of the Tennessee Valley on Saturday. Timing on when these storms occur is uncertain, with a variety of solutions shown by the deterministic models. With more clouds and higher rain chances a tad cooler on Saturday with highs from the mid 80s to around 90, and heat indexes from the mid 90s to 101. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 We will remain in a humid, tropical airmass through Saturday as zonal flow aloft is challenged by broad upper troughing over the northeast Atlantic. An increase in PVE with the warm humid airmass in place ahead will result in medium to high (70-90%) chances for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday peaking during diurnal heating hours of the afternoon. With PWAT values between 1.8-2", localized flooding could occur across areas that see multiple rounds of heavy rain. As high pressure expands across the Great Lakes, a frontal boundary will shift southward on Sunday and should bring at least a temporary relief from the humidity. Temperatures behind this feature will top out in the mid to upper 80s from Sunday through at least Tuesday, with cooler overnight lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s. The good news is that this will keep the HeatRisk in the Minor (level 1) category which highlights the risk for heat related illness in those who are extremely sensitive to heat and those without cooling/hydration, but will not be as dangerous overall compared to what we have experienced lately. Low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist through the remainder of the long term forecast but will primarily be diurnally driven with a very low risk for any severe storms. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 545 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Showers and storms will likely be ending at the start of the period and thus opted to exclude thunder from the TAF. VFR conditions look to prevail through the night. Confidence decreases in the forecast beyond 14Z. There is currently a low to medium (20-40%) chance of storms tomorrow mid day through afternoon yet confidence is too low in timing and location to include in the TAF at this time. Subsequent updates will refine storm probabilities. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...AMP SHORT TERM....RSB LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...RAD  104 FXUS65 KFGZ 092248 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 348 PM MST Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue over the White Mountain region today and Friday, hot and mostly dry elsewhere. Monsoonal moisture begins to ramp up over this weekend and into next week, with storm activity pushing back west and north and becoming more frequent. Dangerous heat is expected at the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon through Sunday, and for Glen Canyon on Saturday and Sunday. && .DISCUSSION...Drier air continues to work it's way into the region as a large flattened ridge is centered to our west. Dewpoints and PW across the region has fallen compared to previous days, especially towards far northern AZ. Scattered thunderstorms are still expected over the White Mountains and Eastern Mogollon Rim today, with some weaker and isolated activity further north. Stronger storms in the White Mountains today could still see small hail, gusty outflow, and flash flood risk over sensitive burn scars. The drying trend continues through tomorrow, with PW bottoming out across the region in the short term. Enough moisture will linger around east and southeast AZ to bring continued convective activity to the White Mountains. The ridge rapidly strengthens and rebounds eastward this weekend, and sets up in a favorable flow pattern for the North American Monsoon. Moisture begins to creep up slightly on Saturday, but really ramps up by Sunday-Monday. PW values are forecast to climb to 0.9-1.0 inches or greater, around the 80th percentile for Flagstaff climatology. Daily shower and thunderstorms chances look to continue through at least the middle of next week as the flow continues to allow for subtropical moisture to stream into AZ. Heat will also be a concern through the week with strong ridging in the vicinity. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for the Grand Canyon below 4000 ft through Sunday, with temperatures in excess of 110 degrees expected each day at Phantom Ranch. An Extreme Heat Warning has also been issued for Marble and Glen Canyons on Saturday and Sunday with temperatures close to 10 degrees above normal and HeatRisk in High-Extreme thresholds. && .AVIATION...Friday 10/00Z through Saturday 11/00Z...VFR conditions. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA before 03Z and after 19Z INVOF KJTC. Winds SW/W 5- 10 kts, increasing to 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts after 18Z. Gusty, erratic winds possible in and around TSRA. OUTLOOK...Saturday 11/00Z through Monday 13/00Z...Mainly VFR. ISO- SCT SHRA/TSRA INVOF KSOW/KJTC on Saturday, expanding to south of a KGCN-KFLG-KSJN line on Sunday. Brief MVFR conditions and gusty, erratic winds possible in and around TSRA. Winds VRB 5-10 kts on Saturday, becoming S/SW on Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Most areas will remain hot and dry. Southwesterly breezes from 10 to 20 mph, gusting from 25 to 30 mph on Friday will become light and variable at 5-15 mph on Saturday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue over the White Mountain region Friday afternoon, with chances nudging further west over the Mogollon Rim on Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday...Turning a few degrees cooler. Shower and thunderstorm activity pushing west and north across the area with an increase in coverage. Wetting rains are likely. Winds mainly southerly at 5 to 15 mph. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ Saturday to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Sunday for AZZ005. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ006. && $$ PUBLIC...Lewandowski AVIATION...Humphreys FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  354 FXUS65 KRIW 092254 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 454 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Less storm activity for this afternoon (10-15% coverage). These will build and push off the Winds by 2-3PM and move east across Fremont/Natrona Counties by 6-7PM with main threats of gusty outflow winds up to 40-50 mph. - Record high temperatures are likely this weekend and possibly early next week with some all time record high temperatures possible. The hottest day will be Sunday. - Very low humidity will bring elevated fire weather Friday into early next week. Critical fire weather is possible in northern Wyoming Sunday afternoon for the northern Bighorn Basin and Cody Foothills. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1203 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Thunderstorms have started to develop over the Winds as many of the HiRes models have suggested from this morning. These will continue to build and begin to push east across the Wind River Basin towards 2-3PM before pushing into eastern Fremont to Natrona Counties before exiting by 7PM this evening. The primary hazard continues to be gusty outflows, not quite as strong as yesterday, up to 40-50 mph as dewpoint depressions are a bit less. Otherwise, hot temperatures still on the way for Friday and over the weekend, with Sunday the hottest afternoon. A excessive heat watch has been issued for Saturday through Monday with widespread triple digits expected for many across the CWA. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 151 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 We still have a few light showers in central portions of Wyoming early this morning as we still have a bit of CAPE in the atmosphere. Nothing heavy, and barely any lightning, just a few showers. At this point, any amount of moisture is a good thing. And it looks like it will be another day of convection. There could be some this morning though, especially in portions of Johnson and Natrona County where guidance is showing some CAPE this morning, so we added around a 1 in 5 chance of a shower, it may end up just being virga though. Otherwise, the trend of decreasing coverage of convection continues as precipitable water values continue to drop. Again, the main chance will be East of the Divide with areas to the west largely dry with less than a 1 in 10 chance. For once, we don't have any kind of risk from the Storm Prediction Center. The main threat will be, as it always is this time of year, strong wind gusts. Models soundings continue to show inverted V signatures and with some dew point depressions approaching 50 degrees, wind gusts of 50 mph will be possible with any shower or thunderstorm. This looks like an earlier show with most showers ending after sunset and all over by midnight. Temperatures should be similar to yesterday, quite warm but fairly normal for July. Tomorrow is where we begin to transition from thunderstorms to heat. Drier air will continue to push eastward across the area, dropping precipitable water levels even more. There may be just enough moisture and instability to squeeze out very isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, this would be mainly in Johnson County where a bit more moisture will linger and possibly the mountains with a bit of high elevation heat source. Coverage will be very sparse though, with a capital V and a capital S, less than 5 percent of the area. Temperatures will also begin to rise, approaching 100 in the warm spots like the Bighorn Basin and widespread 90s East of the Divide in the lower elevations. This is hot, but nothing unusually for the middle of July, climatologically the warmest time of the year. Things really change on Saturday. Strong ridging over the desert southwest will begin to build northward, with 500 millibar heights reaching 5970 meters bydays end. At the same time, 700 millibar temperatures will rise to as high as 21 celsius. This means a very hot day. Reasoning for today remains the same, most locations below 5200 feet East of the Divide have at least a 1 in 2 chance of high temperatures over 100 degrees, with the warmest spots like from Thermopolis to Greybull in the Bighorn Basin have an almost 100 percent chance. Some record high temperatures are certainly possible on this day. And, with the warm temperatures aloft and much drier air moving in, the chance of convection will be basically zero. But this is only the appetizer, with the main course likely to be on Sunday. This is when the ridge will be centered over Wyoming, with some models giving 500 millibar heights as high as 6000 meters. The 700 millibar temperatures may climb as high as 24 degrees celsius. All this adds up to a very hot day, possibly one we haven't seen in a long time. The NBA ensemble gives a greater than 1 in 2 chance of 100 degrees in all locations below 6000 feet, with an almost 100 percent chance below 5500 feet. And this includes some places that don;t see 100. Rock Springs has around a 3 in 5 chance of over 100, and even Jackson has a 1 in 3 chance. The lower elevations of the Bighorn Basin have at least a 4 out of 5 chance of high temperatures over 105 degrees on this day. And the warmest spots, like Greybull and Basin, have a 1 in 2 chance of reaching 110. This is the most likely day to see all time record highs broken, especially in locations that have a shorter period of record. As for heat highlights, I had mixed thoughts on this. The main reason is the humidity, or more specifically the lack of it. The lower elevations will have widespread single digit relative humidity, with some locations falling as a 3 percent on Sunday. This has an impact on the apparent temperatures, which is what we base heat highlights on. For one, the apparent temperature will be below the actual temperature by 5 or 10 degrees. Also, with the dry air, almost all locations should cool off at least into the 60s at night. The one place I could see an excessive heat watch is the Bighorn Basin, but this would mainly be for Sunday. Heat advisories look more likely at this time, there is still time so we will punt to day shift to take another look. And there is one more concern for Sunday. The NBM ensemble is giving a greater than 1 in 2 chance of wind gusts over 30 mph Sunday afternoon north of a Meeteetse to Worland to Kaycee line. With the extremely dry conditions, we may have to consider Fire Weather Highlights for Sunday afternoon. There should be some slight, and emphasis on slight. cooling on Monday, be probably only by 3 to 5 degrees. One hundred degree high temperatures will still be very widespread across the lower elevations. One this day, there may be just enough moisture to come around the backside of the ridge for isolated storms in the western mountains, but the chance is only around 1 out of 10. Chances of convection then slowly increase each day, starting mainly in western Wyoming on Tuesday and then spreading eastward as the ridge slowly moves eastward and moisture rotates in around the backside of it. Temperatures will cool at first in the west, but likely remain well above normal through the forecast period. Very hot temperatures continue Tuesday before some cooling moves in for midweek East of the Divide. But even with some cooling, temperatures should remain well above normal through most of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 454 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions prevail at all terminals through 00Z/Saturday. Ongoing convection wanes by 02Z/Friday, with only lingering mid- level clouds and a few showers until 06Z/Friday. Convective gusty outflow wind 35-45kts remains the primary hazard until just before sunset. However, brief MVFR of less than 30 minutes, is possible at KCPR where low-level moisture is more favorable. The mid-level moisture that has been aiding diurnal convective development diminishes Friday as drier air arrives from the west. A few Friday afternoon showers develop over the Absaroka, Wind River, and Bighorn Mountains, but unfavorable dynamics and limited moisture should lead to these fizzling quickly as they try to move into the lower elevations. Westerly wind 10-18kts decreases by sunset at terminals west of the Continental Divide. These same terminals see 8-15kt winds begin again early Friday afternoon. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday evening for WYZ003>006-010-011-013-016>020-023-025>030. && $$ UPDATE...Lowe DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...CNJ