765 FXUS63 KOAX 092301 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 601 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A stretch of hot weather is expected this weekend into next week, with highs in the 90s and heat indices approaching 100 degrees. - Most days are looking dry through the next week, though we could see a few spotty showers and storms produce gusty winds Friday. Severe weather is unlikely. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Fairly quiet close to home early this afternoon with just some lingering cloud cover as a weak shortwave was passing through the area. Farther west, stronger shortwave energy was crossing the Rockies and interacting with a north-south oriented boundary to lead to shower and storm development. CAMs are generally in good agreement that these push east across NE overnight and into Friday morning, but mostly dissipate prior to reaching our forecast area. However, a few solutions indicate potential for a lingering MCV to move across northeast NE while the primary shortwave clips far southeast NE and southwest IA. Therefore, wouldn't completely count on a dry morning (10-30% chance of rain). In addition, guidance seems to hint at spotty afternoon storm development, likely along remnant outflow from any morning precip. Very little shear will be in place for storm organization, but dry low levels in model soundings indicate some potential for downbursts/gusty winds, with the 09.12Z HRRR notably showing some 40-45 mph gusts emanating from collapsing storms. Beyond those storm chances Friday, we're looking at a pretty dry next 7 days as upper level ridging starts to build in and amplify over the center of the CONUS. This will also lead to rising temperatures with highs generally gaining around 2-3 degrees each day into next week, with mid 80s for most on Friday, upper 80s to lower 90s Sunday, and widespread 90s by Tuesday. The "good" news is that trends are toward maybe slightly lower temperatures than previous forecasts and true gulf moisture/humidity looks to be held to our south. Therefore, dewpoints should stay fairly steady in the 60s, though being July in corn country, it'll still feel humid, as heat indices climb into the mid 90s to around 100. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 601 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions are observed at terminals this evening with few to scattered cumulus clouds at 3,000 to 5,000 feet. These clouds will dissipate within the next two to three hours. A 15,000 to 20,000 ft cloud deck will approach from the west after 04z. Widely scattered showers and storms may develop with this activity at KOFK and KLNK after 12z, but chances still remain at less than 20%. More scattered showers and storms may develop after 21z (20-30% chance) but given uncertainty in where storms may develop, have left mentions out at terminals. Winds remain under 12 kts during the TAF cycle from the northeast, becoming east southeast in the afternoon. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...Castillo  755 FXUS64 KTSA 092301 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 601 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 558 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Hot and humid conditions Thursday with large area of heat advisory conditions. - Isolated to widely scattered storms Thursday through Friday generally along and north of Interstate 40. - Storm chances trend higher late Friday through the weekend and possibly into early next week. Temperatures trend nearer to seasonal normals with the increase in daily rain chances. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Morning showers across portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas associated with the low level jet will continue to decrease and push east into the early afternoon. Widely scattered afternoon showers with isolated thunderstorms will still be possible, largely north of I-40 as heat and humidity build through the afternoon. Stronger flow aloft would also support some severe potential with downburst winds the main concern through the period. This afternoon still trends to be a hot one, though the early morning showers and cloud cover have slowed the warm up slightly. More veered surface flow form the southwest and favorable placement of the low level thermal ridge will allow temps to approach 100 degrees across portions of northeast Oklahoma this afternoon. Dewpoint temperatures are running a little less than yesterday at this time, but still humid conditions can be expected to combine with the temperatures to produce widespread heat index values ranging from 105 to 110 degrees across the forecast area. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for much of the area and trends will continue to be monitored for a possible upgrade to a warning for some locations if needed. More wind and high dewpoints across the region will again lead to very warm overnight lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s tonight. Bowlan pushing rain && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Another complex of storms looks to expand in coverage across Kansas later tonight into early Friday morning. Again, some of this activity could sneak far enough south to get into the forecast area Friday morning. Generally just lighter showers with isolated thunder is expected with any activity through the morning hours. Hot and humid conditions continue again on Friday with more heat headlines likely needed from later shifts. Similar to Thursday, widely scattered afternoon showers and storms will again be possible north of I-40, with some severe risk present. The upper ridge will amplify over the western CONUS and a couple of shortwaves will dive south through the forecast area over the weekend, pushing a frontal boundary into the area by Saturday. This will lead to more favored shower and thunderstorm development by Saturday afternoon through the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall will be the main threat with the deep moisture in place and slower storm motions expected. Better rain chances will slowly drift south across the forecast area by late Sunday into early next week. Temperatures more near the seasonal normal can be expected from late weekend into early next week in the wake of the passing boundary. By this time, the upper ridge will intensify and build northeastward across the Central and Northern Plains. Influence form the ridge looks to slowly expand southward into the local region through mid week, with lower daily rain chances and warming temperatures the result in the forecast though the middle part of next week. Bowlan && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 558 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions will continue to be forecast for all sites through the period. A low chance of thunderstorms will continue through the evening and again tomorrow generally north of Interstate 40. However, guidance remains consistent in that the overall coverage of any storms is likely to remain low and below inclusion in the forecast at this time. Periodic gusty winds develop again during the day Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 81 98 80 96 / 20 20 20 50 FSM 81 98 79 96 / 10 20 10 30 MLC 81 96 80 96 / 10 10 10 10 BVO 78 96 76 94 / 20 20 30 40 FYV 79 93 77 91 / 20 20 30 60 BYV 78 93 75 90 / 20 20 40 70 MKO 80 97 79 94 / 20 20 20 50 MIO 77 94 75 91 / 20 20 40 50 F10 80 97 79 95 / 10 10 10 30 HHW 78 96 77 94 / 10 10 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>068- 070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376. AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ119-120-129-219- 220-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...07  871 FXUS63 KGRR 092302 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 702 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered Thunderstorms Tonight - Upper High builds in Next Week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Scattered Thunderstorms Tonight Storms have remained below severe limits so far this afternoon. There is still a threat for hail and damaging winds this evening across the southeast zones where instability is greatest. A cold front slowly sinks south overnight then slows and stalls on Friday just south of Lower Michigan with a low chance of lingering showers across the far south. - Upper High builds in Next Week Heights rise early next week with an upper high centered across the upper Mid-west and Northern Plains extending into Michigan early in the week, bringing hot and dry weather. The details are still to be determined, but height falls are expected mid-week as upper troughing develops across eastern Canada. This could result in a cooling trend by mid to late week and possibly some much needed rainfall if MCS activity forms along the top of the ridge and advects into Michigan. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 702 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Lingering thunderstorms north of the terminals should remain north of the TAF sites until they dissipate with sunset. Light northeast flow off of Lake Huron overnight will support fog development, with a period of low stratus possible near daybreak. Generally MVFR conditions favored but IFR is possible, best chance at LAN. Any fog/low stratus should mix to VFR after sunrise. Low chance (20%) of showers or thunderstorms developing near I-94 after 16z Friday. Will not include in TAFs given low confidence but this will need to be monitored in subsequent forecasts. Winds become light and variable overnight before increasing to 5-10 kts out of the northwest on Friday. && .MARINE... Issued at 258 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Scattered thunderstorms will be ending from north to south this evening with a low chance for gusty winds and small hail. Then high pressure builds in for the weekend and into next week. North winds could gust over 20 knots Friday evening as the high builds in then winds should be blo 15 knots for most of the weekend. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...Ostuno  900 FXUS64 KOUN 092303 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 603 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 600 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Low storm & severe weather chances across portions of northern and central Oklahoma during the evening/night through Saturday. - Dangerous heat and humidity through sunset today; Generally improving/"less hot" conditions this weekend into next week. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 It's setting up to be another hot and humid one across Oklahoma and western-north Texas, with (low) chances for storms/severe weather as we roll into the evening and nighttime periods. Previous widely scattered rain showers continue to slowly dissipate as warm mid-level ascent wanes. While a modest south-southwesterly breeze and remnant (scattered) cloud cover may provide temporary heat "relief" today, 100-110 F heat indices remain forecast for much of the eastern two-thirds of Oklahoma. Despite increasing potential for us to fall short of criteria heat indices in portions of central Oklahoma, we will maintain the previous Heat Advisory configuration until 8 PM this evening. The presence of a weak boundary and hot/well-mixed conditions within a surface pressure trough may provide enough support for isolated thunderstorm development across northern Oklahoma this evening (after 4-5 PM). Any storm in this regime will be capable of strong-damaging downburst wind events. Remnant cloud cover and weak subsidence behind a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) across northern Oklahoma have decreased confidence in mid-evening storm development compared to previous forecasts. By the late evening (9-10 PM onward), evolving convection across western Kansas into the Texas Panhandle will become the main focus for storm potential across portions of far northern Oklahoma. It still appears that much of this activity will remain confined to far southern Kansas, though some risk for strong-damaging wind gusts, lightning and brief heavy rainfall may spread southward across the Oklahoma/Kansas border late tonight. Ungar && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The heat stress risk looks to temper some as we head into the weekend, with continued chances for morning then eveningtime scattered rain and storms. Warmed/Desert Southwest airmasses are forecast to become more confined to our west, along with generally reduced day-over-day evapotranspiration potential. This combination will in turn yield less hot and drier surface conditions, resulting in generally <105 F heat indices during the period. Despite this, still use caution if you plan to spend prolonged time outdoors during the daytime. Warm isentropic ascent will promote another morning of scattered light precipitation cores across western into northern Oklahoma on Friday, with a main hazard of sporadic cloud-to-ground lightning. We will again watch a lingering frontal boundary for scattered thunderstorm potential (with a wind/hail risk) along and north of Interstate 40 into the evening, though most locations will remain dry. While a coherent area of Southern High Plains convection will focus further south on Friday (i.e., Texas & Oklahoma Panhandles), it currently appears that most activity will decay prior to reaching western Oklahoma. A more evident risk of storms and severe weather arrives by Saturday late afternoon into evening, as a majority of guidance propagates a convectively-enhanced mid-level system (and stronger front) across the area. Damaging downburst wind gusts will remain the primary hazard, though a few instances of large hail may also occur with more organized/persistent thunderstorms during this time. Ungar && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Wednesday) Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Guidance is converging towards a rather rainy/stormy solution for the the southern two-thirds of Oklahoma and western-north Texas on Sunday. This would likely include some potential for strong- severe storms should sufficient instability build into the afternoon and evening. Interests with outdoor plans should continue to check back as details continue to come into focus. Ungar .Previous Discussion... Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Temperatures through the latter half of the weekend into early next week will be 5-10 degrees cooler than what we will see over the next few days. A mid-level ridge across the Desert Southwest will shift to the north, and move into the central and high Plains. Across our area, we will see mostly dry conditions and a warm up back into the mid to upper upper 90s for the latter half of the week. Bunker && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 600 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions to continue. Other than a period of PROB30 at WWR this evening, most sites remain dry with just some high clouds streaming overhead. Gusty south winds will diminish by 01-02Z and then increase at most sites by mid=morning Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 80 98 79 98 / 0 10 0 40 Hobart OK 78 99 77 99 / 0 0 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 79 100 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 74 98 73 98 / 20 20 30 20 Ponca City OK 77 96 76 94 / 20 20 30 40 Durant OK 80 98 80 97 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ006>008-011>013- 017>020-023>032-039>043-045>048-050>052. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...09 SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...30  953 FXAK67 PAJK 092304 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 304 PM AKDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - Rain continues across the central and southern panhandle, diminishing later Thursday into Friday. - A disturbance coming down from Canada brings more precipitation to the northern panhandle and inner channels Thursday PM into Friday. A couple thunderstorms are also possible in northeastern portions of the region late Friday. && .SHORT TERM.../Through 12Z Sunday/...A frontal wave is slowly weakening across the southern portions of the panhandle, but scattered showers have reached as far north as Pelican and Gustavus with at least a few sprinkles here in Juneau as well. The heavier showers south of Point Alexander have diminished. But with some breaks in cloudiness there has been a bit of differential heating, which has in turned aided in the development of a few additional showers. As we lose peak heating and the frontal wave disintegrates with low pressure moving off to the east, precipitation will decrease in the southern peninsula tonight. Meanwhile, farther north, cloudiness will continue to increase, especially from Skagway to Juneau as a shortwave from Canada advects moisture and lift into the region. Rain chances will also increase through the night and persist through much of Friday, along with the return of slightly cooler temperatures. Precipitation rates and overall amounts will not be that high, but a persistent steady light to moderate rainfall can be expected. With sufficient mid level lift and modestly steep lapse rates, a couple of thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across the northeastern areas of the forecast area, where a slight chance of thunderstorms was retained for Friday afternoon and early evening. Although the better thunder chance still looks to remain just to our north and east, any breaks in cloud cover could provide just enough additional instability for convective development and also help any storms advance southwest out of the higher mountain ranges into our area. Showers are also expected to develop across the rest of the region and become widespread before slowly diminishing later Friday night. Precipitation chances drop region wide on Saturday as we lose the upper level support. Much of the model guidance still wants to give at least a slight chance of showers from Juneau to Klawock and points east. But, widespread activity is certainly not expected as high pressure will briefly push into the region from the west in advance of our next trough by early next week. .LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday/... By Sunday, a low pressure system looks to form in the Gulf of Alaska. As the low approaches the area, stronger winds (up to 25kts or 27 mph) and higher seas (up to 9 feet) are expected west of Icy Bay. The low will move east Monday, but weaken as it does so. After Tuesday, models disagree about the exact progression of an additional low pressure system. Overall, a fairly wet weather pattern looks to continue for Southeast Alaska. Rainfall totals with the active weather pattern are expected to remain below an inch through next Thursday. However, depending on the exact track of the low pressure system Tuesday, higher rainfall totals are possible. After warmer temperatures this weekend, rain chances should keep temperatures cooler than the climatological average. && .AVIATION.../Through 00Z Friday/...Winds are calming in southern Clarence Strait and near PAKT, and shower activity is decreasing over the southern Panhandle as the weakening Gulf low continues its southeastward track. Prevailing conditions remain VFR this afternoon, with the exception of PAKW and PAKT, where lingering bands of rain showers from the low continue to push northward. Looking ahead, a mid-level disturbance tracking eastward from western Canada will introduce moisture to the inland northern and central Panhandle. This is expected to trigger localized rain showers beginning late tonight and continuing through Friday, leading to MVFR CIGs for much of the day. Winds will increase across the northern region Friday afternoon, with speeds near PAGY reaching 12 to 15 kts. Across the southern Panhandle, spotty showers will gradually dissipate as they drift southward, with more clearing expected by Friday afternoon, allowing conditions to return to VFR. However, tonight's clearing across the south may support the formation of lower clouds early Friday morning, causing brief reductions in VSBY. && .MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A weakening area of low pressure is traversing across the eastern Gulf of Alaska with an occluding front extending east into Prince of Wales and the southern Panhandle. Updated guidance and observations show winds decreasing under Small Craft Advisory criteria, and seas less than 8ft, so cancelling the current hazards for the 15nm-80nm offshore zone off Prince of Wales Island through tonight as activity in the Gulf continues to weaken. In the Dixon Entrance to Edgecumbe offshore zones from Prince of Wales to southern Baranof, expecting southerly winds 15 to 20 kts south of the front today before weakening a bit tonight into Friday, and seas 6 to 7 ft. Another low pressure system moving into the eastern Gulf is expected to increase seas to 9ft along the coast between Cape Suckling and Icy Bay late Sunday, though diminishing by early next week. Inside (Inner Channels): Southeast winds increase diurnally again today in southern Clarence Strait and Taiya Inlet with 15 to 20 kts generally and 5 ft seas along the Dixon Entrance region. Expecting winds to relax slightly Friday as the weakening Gulf low moves southeast. A generally lighter wind pattern is expected for most of the panhandle going into the weekend as weak ridging builds over the southern region. The exception will be Taiya Inlet and Northern Lynn Canal as the pressure gradient greatly increases going through the weekend. Current thinking is southeast winds increasing to 15-20 kts, gusting to 25 kts, and peaking in the afternoon hours. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJB LONG TERM...Musall AVIATION...BAS MARINE...BAS Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  955 FXUS64 KBMX 092304 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 604 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 604 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026 - Thunderstorms: Daily opportunities for mainly afternoon and evening storms will remain in the forecast for now through the beginning of next week. A few of these storms will be capable of normal summertime hazards such as gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 156 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026 An active weather pattern remains in place as we move through the weekend. Significant uncertainty persists regarding the magnitude of shortwave forcing progged to move across the region on Friday. While some models suggest a more robust impulse capable of organized convection, others maintain a weaker, more diffuse signal. High-resolution guidance continues to struggle with the timing and placement of these features, leading to a lower-than- average confidence forecast for Friday afternoon or Saturday afternoon. Regarding temperatures, heat indices remain a concern; however, they are extremely sensitive to localized cloud cover and potential outflow boundaries. Should convective debris persist longer than anticipated, peak indices may struggle to reach advisory criteria. Conversely, any extended periods of clearing will likely push values into the 105 range. The long-awaited frontal passage has trended slower in recent data. We have expanded the timing of the front to encompass late Sunday through Tuesday. This slower progression will maintain higher moisture levels across the southern counties through early next week before drier, continental air finally overspreads the entire forecast area by Wednesday morning. 16 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 604 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026 A few scattered storms continue to develop generally east of the I-65 corridor this evening, but these should miss MGM, AUO, and TOI. For the remainder of the evening and overnight, the coverage of thunderstorm activity should gradually diminish with VFR conditions persisting through the next 24 hours. A weak upper level shortwave is expected to slide well to our north during the day tomorrow with low level ridging building in from the south. This should limit the thunderstorm activity for tomorrow afternoon, though there may still be a few isolated thunderstorms develop. I've included Prob30 groups for TSRA at BHM and EET, but the better chances for any development will likely be north of those sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions with our typical diurnal wind shifts are expected through much of the day tomorrow. 25/Owen && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire weather concerns continue to be low. A warm and moist air mass will remain in place with diurnally driven thunderstorm activity expected over the next several days. Winds will generally remain light during the day, becoming calm overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 72 92 73 90 / 20 50 20 70 Anniston 73 92 73 90 / 20 40 20 60 Birmingham 74 93 75 91 / 20 30 20 50 Tuscaloosa 74 93 75 92 / 20 20 20 40 Calera 73 96 74 94 / 20 20 20 40 Auburn 74 92 74 91 / 20 20 20 30 Montgomery 74 94 75 93 / 20 20 20 20 Troy 73 93 73 93 / 30 20 20 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...16 AVIATION...25/Owen  104 FXUS63 KAPX 092306 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 706 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lingering showers/storms depart east through this evening. - Warming trend this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Low amplitude troughing is in the process of sliding east across the western Great Lakes this afternoon. Surface boundary that crossed north to south across the majority of northern MI this morning will be making its exit to the south over the next few hours. Heights begin to rise locally on Friday with that trend continuing through early next week as impressive heat dome builds over the Desert Southwest/Intermountain West and Plains, and eventually briefly into the western Great Lakes early next week. While this upper high builds, a wave or two expected to ride northwest flow on the northeastern periphery, but with little impact locally per latest ensemble trends. Suppose active weather chances increase toward the tail end of the forecast period mid-late next week as long range trends support that upper high gradually centering over the Southeast states with a return of northwest flow locally between that upper level high and deepening troughing over New England and the Northeast. Forecast Details: Ongoing showers/storms early this afternoon are most numerous across parts of north-central and northeast lower. While the primary threats from any storms will be lightning and locally heavy downpours, suppose a stronger storm can't entirely be ruled out given progged MLCAPE upwards of 1,000 J/kg MLCAPE and ~25- 30 kts deep layer shear. Locally gusty winds possible in any stronger storms, and less of a hail threat given freezing level above 12kft. These showers/storms should gradually exit east and south through the early-mid evening hours with increasing sunshine (already the case in the eastern U.P.) from northwest to southeast through sunset. Patchy fog development expected tonight, locally dense in spots. Partly sunny skies anticipated Friday with high temps back near 8- degrees area-wide. Non-zero afternoon pop up shower chance over north-central and northeast lower, but chances far too low to explicitly include in the forecast at this time. Gradual warming trend continues each day this weekend into early next week with high temps by Monday/Tuesday likely ranging from the mid-upper 80s to low 90s area-wide. Highest probabilities for mid- 90s over downsloping northeast lower. Potential exists both Monday and Tuesday for heat indices to rise into the upper 90s and low 100s across parts of the forecast area. As was alluded to above, at least low potential exists for a return to more active weather mid-late next week, but lots of uncertainty exists around upper-level pattern evolution and where those highest chances set up. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 706 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions are expected to continue across much of northern Michigan this evening and early tonight as showers have dissipated and earlier storms have moved south of the area. Mainly clear skies are anticipated tonight with weak/calm winds, potentially allowing for FG/BR development at TAF sites late tonight into early Friday morning. Any FG/BR should burn off quickly after sunrise, leaving VFR conditions in place through Friday. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MJG AVIATION...DJC  175 FXUS63 KFSD 092307 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 607 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Diminishing thunderstorms arrive late tonight, and could linger into daybreak Friday. Severe storms not anticipated. - Outside of a very localized risk for thunderstorms late Friday afternoon over SW Minnesota and the Ridge areas of South Dakota, a dry forecast into next week is anticipated. - Temperatures through the upcoming 7 days will trend warmer, with widespread highs in the 90s to near 100 through much of next week. 1-2 days may feature heat advisory conditions. The cumulative nature of the heat could lead to heat illness. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 143 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 THIS AFTERNOON: Quiet conditions are likely this afternoon as winds remain light and variable. TONIGHT: Scattered convection that forms over the western High Plains will begin to roll eastward through the evening hours as a shortwave moves into the region. The majority of instability remains bottled up over the West River areas through the evening, and as convection slides eastward it's likely to diminish quickly by time it reaches the CWA. A few gusty winds with decaying showers could still be possible into south central SD. The remnant area of vorticity may drift into northern Nebraska, and could keep a low risk for convection through daybreak in the MO River valley. FRIDAY: A secondary area of convection may form over central ND late tonight, and slowly drift into northeastern SD by mid-morning Friday. A potential MCV could linger into Friday afternoon over the SD portions of the Buffalo Ridge, and with that area on the edge of the low-lvl EML, can't rule out isolated to scattered convection forming after 4-5pm. From a parameter perspective, MLCAPE values remain near 2000 J/KG, but effective shear is very weak, suggesting only pulse strong storms with wind and brief hail could be possible into SW Minnesota during the evening. As instability pulls northward in the evening the severe weather risk should diminish quickly. Elsewhere, a breezy southwest wind will push highs into the upper 80s to lower 90s. THIS WEEKEND: Mid-lvl heights begin to rise quickly as we head into the weekend, which will begin a stead upwards rise in temperatures. One thing to note in recent guidance is that surface winds Saturday and Sunday remain more from the southeast and rather light, which could hold down the extreme climb in highs suggested a few days ago. We'll also see a bit more mix down of dry air as soundings have also trended a bit drier, this will allow afternoon dew points to fall and keep heat index values below critical limits. MONDAY-THURSDAY: A dry and hot week is expected in the region as a 600+ DM 500 mb ridge centers itself over the CWA. The placement of the ridge prevent any storm development, but allow temperatures to climb through the 90s most days. Confidence is high that we'll see temperatures in the middle to upper 90s in most locations, with some areas reaching 100 along and west of the James River valley. The EC ensemble supports this idea with 60%+ probabilities along the James River valley Monday-Thursday. With afternoon dew points mixing down at least into the upper 50s to lower 60s, this should prevent widespread heat index readings over 100 degrees. While the day to day numbers may not be extreme, the cumulative effect of the heat could lead to health related strain by mid-late week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 606 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions are expected for the period. Winds will be light and variable. Thunderstorms over western and central South Dakota are forming mid to upper level cloud shields that will flow into the region this evening and overnight. Storms are expected to weaken as they enter our western CWA. While severe weather is not anticipated a few isolated showers and storms are possible. Confidence is too low that storms will impact any TAF sites to be included at this time. Clouds dissipate through the day Friday. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dux AVIATION...AJP  050 FXUS64 KMEG 092306 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 606 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 605 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of eastern Arkansas and portions of northwest Mississippi for today and tomorrow. Heat index values are expected to reach between 105°F and 109°F. - A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms persists each day through Saturday, particularly for areas along and north of the I-40 corridor. Damaging wind gusts are the primary concern with a secondary threat of flooding. - High pressure will build over the Plains next week, keeping temperatures in the Mid-South near normal. An incoming easterly wave by mid-week is expected to increase the potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Current water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough moving northeast into the Ohio Valley, with weak disturbances embedded in the northwest flow affecting Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois. A large ridge of high pressure is building across the Intermountain West, while surface high pressure dominates much of the CONUS, with a quasi-stationary front stretching from the Northeast to the Great Lakes. Morning thunderstorms in NE Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel, supported by overnight MCS outflow, have left residual cirrus cloud cover across eastern Arkansas and SW Tennessee. This cloud cover will likely suppress afternoon convection while maintaining high heat and humidity. Based on NBM guidance and latest trends, a Heat Advisory has been issued for most of eastern Arkansas and parts of NW Mississippi, effective today and tomorrow. Heat indices will range from 105-109 F. Through Saturday, the Mid-South will experience a zonal to weak northwest flow pattern, increasing vulnerability to nighttime MCSs and daytime MCVs. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms is in effect through Saturday, focusing on areas along and north of the I-40 corridor, where sufficient instability and 15-30 knots of shear favor damaging wind gusts as the primary threat. Furthermore, a Flood Watch remains active through late Saturday evening, as repeated rounds of heavy rainfall pose a continued flood threat to the northern portion of the region. An exceptionally strong ridge of high pressure will develop over the Plains from Sunday through mid-week. LREF guidance indicates 500mb heights near 600 dam-climatological maximums for the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. The Mid-South will remain on the southern periphery of this ridge, resulting in near- normal temperatures. By mid-week, an easterly wave may move into the area, increasing the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Expect near-normal temperatures with persistent daily chances for isolated to scattered storm activity. AC3 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 605 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A cluster of thunderstorms is approaching the northwest corner of the airspace. Confidence is low regarding a southeasterly track, with a preference for initial easterly movement. JBR and MKL have the highest chances to see thunderstorms prior to 06z. Models suggest an initial easterly track, shifting to a more southeasterly progression after 06z and increasing chances again at the northern terminals and low probabilities for showers at MEM. In 24-30 hours, another robust line of storms could develop and affect all terminals, with the exception of TUP. Generally, VFR and southerly winds are expected outside of any thunderstorms. DNM && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Fire weather conditions remain stable across the Mid-South for the remainder of the week. Relative humidity levels will stay above 40 percent, accompanied by light winds and daily opportunities for scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for ARZ009. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ018-026>028-035-036- 048-049-058. MO...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for MOZ113-115. MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for MSZ001-007-008-010>012- 020. TN...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for TNZ001>004-019>022- 054-055. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for TNZ048-049-088. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...DNM  293 FXUS62 KTAE 092309 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 709 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 708 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Rain chances will remain low through Friday night but an increase in convective coverage is expected over the weekend with widespread coverage early next week. When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors! - Above average temperatures are expected through Saturday. Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in air- conditioned places, wear light clothing, and know the signs of heat stress and illnesses. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Friday) Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Below normal rain chances will be in place through this period as high pressure dominates. While temperatures will remain above normal, heat indices will not reach advisory levels. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The Atlantic ridge will weaken across the region allowing convective coverage to return to normal on Saturday. A positively- tilted upper level trough and attendant surface front will settle into and eventually stall over the Southeast. This will tap into a very moist air mass with PWATs well over 2 inches to generate widespread showers and storms from Sunday through Tuesday. A couple inches of rain can be expected in many areas during this period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 708 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible to continue into the late evening as a broken line may extend south through Georgia, potentially moving over the ABY and VLD terminals. A thunderstorm may bubble up within the next hour in the region of DHN from the sea breeze and other outflow boundaries that passed through this afternoon. Overnight, dry conditions with light southwesterly winds are expected. A couple of showers/thunderstorms are possible for ECP and DHN tomorrow afternoon, as noted with a PROB30 group. Overall coverage is expected to be lower with VFR conditions for all TAF sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The summertime Atlantic ridge axis will shift north on Friday and Saturday bringing lighter and more variable winds. After a brief break in early morning convection tonight, a wetter pattern will begin to develop over the weekend and with multiple days of widespread shower and storm activity expected early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 There are little to no fire weather concerns in sight, typical of mid summer. Then chances for widespread wetting rain will increase over the weekend and be particularly high early next week. Fog Concerns and Other Remarks...No widespread fog is expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Lower than normal rainfall chances appear likely through the end of the work week before coverage increases over the weekend and through early next week. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 2.5 inches are forecast through early next week. However, flooding is not expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 76 96 75 96 / 10 10 10 50 Panama City 81 92 80 93 / 10 10 10 20 Dothan 75 95 75 95 / 10 20 10 40 Albany 75 96 75 96 / 10 10 10 20 Valdosta 76 97 75 97 / 10 0 10 20 Cross City 76 97 76 97 / 0 10 10 40 Apalachicola 80 91 79 91 / 0 10 10 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wool LONG TERM....Wool AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...Wool FIRE WEATHER...Wool HYDROLOGY...Wool  197 FXUS64 KAMA 092308 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 608 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 -Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening, mainly for the northern combined Panhandles. -Severe thunderstorm chances return for Friday afternoon and evening, for the majority of the Panhandles. -Thunderstorm chances continue through weekend before drying out next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Latest 18Z satellite and surface obs shows a very subtle H500 wave just ahead of the main cold front, which is generating some showers for the northeastern Panhandles. Further west, a more notable mid level disturbance moving east within the anti-cyclonic flow regime is generating thunderstorms off the high terrain in New Mexico. The northern Panhandles, based off the current trajectory of the thunderstorm development, and the close proximity to main cold front in Kansas, will have the highest probabilities (30-45%) of seeing any rainfall through this evening. Overall effective shear and better vorticity advection downstream of good (+) H700-500 theta-e axis should also keep the higher chances of severe thunderstorms north of the Panhandles. However, any residual convection from the high terrain that make the trip into the Panhandles later today will move into 1200-1400 J/Kg of DCAPE (support by 18Z AMA RAOB data), which could result in some severe level wind gusts to watch closely. Residual showers and low topped storms should dissipate going through the overnight hours tonight. For Friday, the main H500 high will shift more northwest towards the Four Corners region and compress in size. This will introduce good H500 NW steering flow and result in good shear vorticity advection into the Panhandles Friday afternoon into Friday evening. This should result in more organized and robust convection quickly entering the Panhandles from more established NW flow. Early on, more established updrafts in stronger storms where some effective shear is present, we could see large hail perhaps slightly bigger than quarters. What is more higher probs of the main hazard being is damaging winds gusts over 70 mph at times with the DCAPE values over 1500 J/kg. Limited shear the further southeast from the TX/NM stateline should result in not having longevity in sfc based storm tracks before an outflow/cold pool propagates ahead of the main activity. But nonetheless, most of the combined Panhandles will have some chance of a severe thunderstorm. High temperatures on Friday will range from the lower 90s in the NW Panhandles to 100-102 in the far southern TX Panhandle. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 H500 northerly to eventually northeasterly flow will continue through the weekend with diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms along the periphery of the H500 high. Strong wind gusts are possible with more robust storms. By next week, the main high will set up in the central Plains. This should bring large scale UL subsidence to the Panhandles as seen by the latest global model data. With the high centered further north, should keep overall temperatures near average for mid July, with no triple digit heat expected at this time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 603 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Scattered thunderstorms will be in the vicinity of KGUY and KDHT for at least the first few hours of the 00z period. Amendments may be needed for any cells that directly impact the terminals. Downburst wind gusts greater than 40 kts could occur with any thunderstorm this evening. Winds will shift out of the north this evening- overnight behind a boundary, becoming more erratic through the morning hours. Winds will gradually settle out of the east- southeast at 10-20kts towards the end of the period. Harrel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...38  752 FXUS65 KPUB 092313 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 513 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and again Friday afternoon, east of the mountains. - Flash flooding will continue to be a concern over burn scar areas, particularly around the Aspen Acres fire. - Hot and dry conditions return to the region this weekend, with moisture slowly returning to across Western Colorado next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has modest westerly flow in place across the Central Rockies, with a minor embedded shortwave translating through the faster zonal flow across Northern Rockies at this time. Water vapor and GOES Blended Total Water Vapor imagery indicates drying across Great Basin and into Western Colorado, with PWATs of 40-60% of normal, with PWATs across Eastern Colorado currently running around 100 to 120 percent of normal. Regional radars already lighting up with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the Continental Divide into the Eastern mtns and Pikes Peak region as of 1230 pm. For this afternoon through tonight, models remain consistent of scattered showers and storms spreading east into a more unstable environment across the southeast plains late this afternoon and into the evening, where best CAPE, DCAPE and shear will be in place, with the potential for storms to congeal into a MCS rolling into western Kansas through the late evening and overnight hours. With ample DCAPE in place, wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph, will be a concern for storms across the plains through the evening, with hail up to an inch in diameter and brief heavy rainfall with the strongest storms. While some drier air has worked into south central Colorado and into western portions of the Aspen Acres burn area within the modest westerly flow, can't rule out a stronger cell producing locally heavy rainfall, with a Flash Flood watch remaining in place until 8 pm. Otherwise, expecting clearing skies from west to east with convective outflow bringing back low level moisture across plains within east to northeast low level flow, keeping overnight lows at to slightly above seasonal levels in the mid 50s to lower 60s across the plains, with mainly 40s across the higher terrain. Modest west to northwest flow aloft remains progged across the region for Friday, with weak easterly sfc-H7 keeping moisture in place across the eastern mtns and plains, while drier air remains in place across western and into south central Colorado. Latest high res models indicate CAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg across the eastern mtns into the far southeast plains, with isolated to scattered showers and storms developing across the higher terrain through the afternoon, increasing in coverage and intensity as they spread east into the eastern plains once again, where the SPC Day 2 outlook has a marginal to slight risk tomorrow afternoon. The increased moisture and instability across the eastern mtns tomorrow will lead to another risk of locally heavy rainfall across the Aspen Acres Burn area, leading to more day of a Flash Flood Watch in effect from 12-8pm. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 For the weekend, upper level ridging builds across the Four Corners and into the northern Rockies through Sunday, leading to warmer and drier conditions expected across the region with modest east to northeast flow aloft pushing the best moisture south and west of the region. There may be enough residual moisture to support a few showers and storms across the southeast mtns on Saturday afternoon, though convection would be mainly high based, producingmore gusty outflow winds than measurable precipitation. This will be a concern for fire fighting efforts once again. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to be some 5-10F above seasonal levels in the 90s to lower 100s across the plains, in the 70s and 80s across the higher terrain, and in the mid 80s to lower 90s across the high mtns valleys. Will need to monitor for potential heat advisories across the region, however, current forecast fall short of criteria being the middle of summer. For the becoming and into the middle of next week, the upper high and "heat dome" is expected to move north and east into the Upper Midwest, with modest easterly flow remaining progged across eastern Colorado while modest south to southwest flow develops across western Colorado. This will keep drier air in place across eastern Colorado and allow for a slow increase in available moisture pushing across the Desert Southwest and Great Basin into western Colorado. While temperatures remain at to slightly above seasonal levels and flow aloft remains modest, can't rule out spotty critical fire weather conditions developing across the region through the work week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 509 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 KALS...VFR conditions overnight into Friday early afternoon with light winds. There are a few showers across western portions of the San Luis Valley, but confidence in one hitting the terminal is low through 02z this evening. Westerly wind will increase by early afternoon and showers and thunderstorms could impact the terminal through the afternoon with gusty outflow winds being the main concern. KCOS and KPUB...showers have come to an end at both terminals for the evening, with VFR conditions prevail overnight into Friday early afternoon. Another round of afternoon thunderstorms forecast for both terminals, with gusty outflow winds and brief heavy rainfall possible. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080- 086. Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for COZ079-080-086. && $$ SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...MOZLEY  752 FXUS65 KPUB 092313 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 513 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and again Friday afternoon, east of the mountains. - Flash flooding will continue to be a concern over burn scar areas, particularly around the Aspen Acres fire. - Hot and dry conditions return to the region this weekend, with moisture slowly returning to across Western Colorado next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has modest westerly flow in place across the Central Rockies, with a minor embedded shortwave translating through the faster zonal flow across Northern Rockies at this time. Water vapor and GOES Blended Total Water Vapor imagery indicates drying across Great Basin and into Western Colorado, with PWATs of 40-60% of normal, with PWATs across Eastern Colorado currently running around 100 to 120 percent of normal. Regional radars already lighting up with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the Continental Divide into the Eastern mtns and Pikes Peak region as of 1230 pm. For this afternoon through tonight, models remain consistent of scattered showers and storms spreading east into a more unstable environment across the southeast plains late this afternoon and into the evening, where best CAPE, DCAPE and shear will be in place, with the potential for storms to congeal into a MCS rolling into western Kansas through the late evening and overnight hours. With ample DCAPE in place, wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph, will be a concern for storms across the plains through the evening, with hail up to an inch in diameter and brief heavy rainfall with the strongest storms. While some drier air has worked into south central Colorado and into western portions of the Aspen Acres burn area within the modest westerly flow, can't rule out a stronger cell producing locally heavy rainfall, with a Flash Flood watch remaining in place until 8 pm. Otherwise, expecting clearing skies from west to east with convective outflow bringing back low level moisture across plains within east to northeast low level flow, keeping overnight lows at to slightly above seasonal levels in the mid 50s to lower 60s across the plains, with mainly 40s across the higher terrain. Modest west to northwest flow aloft remains progged across the region for Friday, with weak easterly sfc-H7 keeping moisture in place across the eastern mtns and plains, while drier air remains in place across western and into south central Colorado. Latest high res models indicate CAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg across the eastern mtns into the far southeast plains, with isolated to scattered showers and storms developing across the higher terrain through the afternoon, increasing in coverage and intensity as they spread east into the eastern plains once again, where the SPC Day 2 outlook has a marginal to slight risk tomorrow afternoon. The increased moisture and instability across the eastern mtns tomorrow will lead to another risk of locally heavy rainfall across the Aspen Acres Burn area, leading to more day of a Flash Flood Watch in effect from 12-8pm. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 For the weekend, upper level ridging builds across the Four Corners and into the northern Rockies through Sunday, leading to warmer and drier conditions expected across the region with modest east to northeast flow aloft pushing the best moisture south and west of the region. There may be enough residual moisture to support a few showers and storms across the southeast mtns on Saturday afternoon, though convection would be mainly high based, producingmore gusty outflow winds than measurable precipitation. This will be a concern for fire fighting efforts once again. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to be some 5-10F above seasonal levels in the 90s to lower 100s across the plains, in the 70s and 80s across the higher terrain, and in the mid 80s to lower 90s across the high mtns valleys. Will need to monitor for potential heat advisories across the region, however, current forecast fall short of criteria being the middle of summer. For the becoming and into the middle of next week, the upper high and "heat dome" is expected to move north and east into the Upper Midwest, with modest easterly flow remaining progged across eastern Colorado while modest south to southwest flow develops across western Colorado. This will keep drier air in place across eastern Colorado and allow for a slow increase in available moisture pushing across the Desert Southwest and Great Basin into western Colorado. While temperatures remain at to slightly above seasonal levels and flow aloft remains modest, can't rule out spotty critical fire weather conditions developing across the region through the work week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 509 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 KALS...VFR conditions overnight into Friday early afternoon with light winds. There are a few showers across western portions of the San Luis Valley, but confidence in one hitting the terminal is low through 02z this evening. Westerly wind will increase by early afternoon and showers and thunderstorms could impact the terminal through the afternoon with gusty outflow winds being the main concern. KCOS and KPUB...showers have come to an end at both terminals for the evening, with VFR conditions prevail overnight into Friday early afternoon. Another round of afternoon thunderstorms forecast for both terminals, with gusty outflow winds and brief heavy rainfall possible. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080- 086. Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for COZ079-080-086. && $$ SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...MOZLEY  974 FXUS61 KALY 092316 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 716 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) There is a marginal risk (Level 1 of 5) for isolated severe thunderstorms in the western Adirondacks this afternoon into early this evening. Primary hazards are strong winds and heavy downpours. 2) Heat and humidity today will result in minor to locally moderate heat-related impacts. Confidence is increasing in another period of above normal temperatures early to mid next week resulting in minor to moderate heat-related impacts. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Afternoon Update: No changes to the current forecast for today. Latest 18z ALY sounding supports enough energy for thunderstorms to develop, but lacking other ingredients needed for severe storms so continued mention of non-severe thunderstorms. Rain showers can develop outside of the southern Adirondacks for this afternoon into the early evening hours tonight. The current forecast is on track, read below for more details. Previous Discussion: A weak pressure trough tracking eastward out of southern Canada into NY this afternoon into the evening combined with weak height falls ahead of broad troughing over the Great Lakes will help initiate isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Latest CAMs continue to show two distinct areas of activity. The first is focused mainly from the Capital District north and west into the southwest Adirondacks associated with the incoming pressure trough and weak height falls. Then, there is a second area mainly in eastern PA and NJ/southern NY that may graze our mid- Hudson Valley and NW CT areas as mid-level shortwaves and a subtle boundary lift northward. Despite the warm/humid conditions, instability is unimpressive generally under 1000 J/kg due to warm temperatures aloft and forecast soundings showing a weak capping inversion. Even still, CAMs show showers and storms initiating mainly near or shortly after 18 UTC through 03 UTC; however, given weak forcing, coverage is isolated/scattered. With deep layer shear ranging 20 to 30kts and 850-300hPa lapse rates 5.5-6C/km, SPC continues to graze our western Adirondack areas in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated severe storms today where the best height falls are expected. Damaging winds and heavy downpours remain the primary hazard from any severe storm. Elsewhere, severe weather is unlikely. KEY MESSAGE 2... Afternoon Update: No changes to the forecast for key message number two. Read previous discussion below for more details. We start off the day with weak ridging overhead as high pressure from yesterday slides off the East Coast. With broad troughing positioned well upstream in the Great Lakes, we will enter into a southwest flow regime supporting weak warm air and moisture advection resulting in temperatures climbing a few degrees higher than yesterday into the mid to upper 80s with probabilistic guidance showing a 40 to 70% chance for valley areas to reach or exceed 90 degrees. Given elevated humidity levels, heat index values or the "feel-like temperatures" will near 95 degrees in these areas; however, given the limited coverage with the HeatRisk mainly in the minor to moderate range, we continue to hold off on heat advisories for today. Regardless, it will still be very warm and humid today so avoid strenuous outdoor activities and drink water even if you are not thirsty. Tomorrow will not be as warm given increased cloud coverage and showers and a few storms as a cold front pushes through the region. After a break from the heat and humidity this weekend, there is a growing consensus among the medium and long range guidance for a period of above normal temperatures returning early to mid next week. This comes as a heat dome in the Central Plains slides eastward resulting in 850hPa isotherms ranging 2 to nearly 3 standard deviations above normal per the ENS next Monday through Wednesday. Latest probabilistic guidance from the NBM shows a 50 to 75% chance for high temperatures to reach or exceed 90 degrees across much of eastern NY and western New England (outside of the high terrain) with even a 25 to 50% chance for reaching or exceeding 95 degrees. There remains some uncertainty with how long the heat will last as there is decent consensus for a trough from southern Canada to track south/eastward into the Northeast late next week. This would help shift the heat out of our area but also increase the chance for severe weather. The SPC Day 4-8 outlook continues to discuss the potential for severe weather for the middle of next week in the Northeast while also outlining uncertainty in the exact location. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 00z Saturday...Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area over the next 2-3 hours with a medium chance for impacts at PSF. While light winds will support the formation of fog at GFL and PSF tonight, the potential for high cloud cover could be a limiting factor. Confidence was not high enough to include TEMPO groups with this forecast package, but we will continue to monitor fog potential through this evening. VFR conditions are expected tomorrow with a low chance for thunderstorms from KALB south during the afternoon hours. Outlook... Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...31/05 AVIATION...91  948 FXUS61 KRNK 092316 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 716 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Only significant change to the forecast was to lower PoPs as best support remains to the north, lose of heating and westerly flow reduces storm threat. Otherwise, seasonal heat and humidity expected into the upcoming weekend with scattered mainly afternoon and evening thundershowers. && .KEY MESSAGES... Key Message 1: Isolated storms linger into this evening. Key Message 2: Scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms expected through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Isolated storms linger into this evening. Seasonally humid condition are present across the forecast area this evening. A stationary front remains draped over the area with a weak shortwave trough passing across WV. These features in combination with the heating of the day have aided in the development of scattered thunderstorms over eastern WV/western VA, with storms tracking eastward through this evening. Sufficient westerly flow aloft and moderate CAPE values will result in isolated damaging winds but risk for severe storms looks less than marginal for our forecast area where storms are expected to be disorganized. Farther north into NoVA, wind fields support better organization up that way. And for areas farther south into NC the westerly wind have actually result in demise of thermal cells due to downslope flow. In general will maintain best chance for precip across our WV counties and along and north of highway 460 in VA...fading to just isolated pops along and south of the VA/NC border. Main hazard from anything that develops will be damaging wind gusts. DCAPE values are expected to be above 1000 j/kg east of the Blue Ridge, so this should drive some healthy downdraft winds. Passage of short wave and loss of daytime heating will lead to diminishing activity after sunset. Look for stratus and fog for the mountain valleys overnight. With stronger westerly flow aloft, do not expect stratus to be as impactful for the foothills and piedmont. Key Message 2: Scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms expected through the weekend. Current quasi-stationary front is expected to wash out and lose its identity. A more bonafide surface cold front approaching from the Great Lakes Friday will trigger increased coverage of showers and storms for the weekend, with the front eventually passing south of the region Sunday leading to somewhat drier conditions for early next week. Models ensembles indicate some lingering cloud cover and showers across the southern CWA Monday, but overall the trend is still for a few days of cooling and drying before we heat back up toward the end of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Isolated showers and thunderstorms expected through sunset with greatest coverage north of the Roanoke valley, or north of a BLF-BCB- ROA-LYH line. Any storm that develops or passes near any terminals have the potential for gusty, erratic winds, heavy rain, occasional lightning, and temporary reduction of visibility. Storms are expected to dissipate shortly after sunset with development of mountain valley fog and stratus after midnight. Wind fields may be strong enough to prevent fog at ROA, LYH, and DAN. For Friday, expecting another day of scattered mainly afternoon and evening storms. Forecast confidence is high in the overall pattern, low to moderate in storm coverage. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Scattered, showers and thunderstorms are forecast through the upcoming weekend with greatest coverage during the afternoon and evening. Heavy downpours, gusty winds, and sub-VFR conditions are all possible in any of the stronger storms. Patchy fog is also likely during the overnight periods, especially where significant rainfall occurred during the evening before. Any fog will burn off quickly after 13Z daily. Drier conditions are expected for early next week. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PM/RCS AVIATION...PM/RCS  993 FXUS62 KGSP 092317 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 717 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe thunderstorm chances look a little better Friday afternoon as the Day 2 Convective Outlook shows an increase to Marginal Risk. The aviation discussion was updated for the 00Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Continued hot and humid east of the mountains into the weekend, but not hot enough to reach heat advisory criteria. If you have outdoor activity planned in the afternoons through Saturday, make sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks to cool off and avoid heat-related stress. 2. Mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be mostly confined to western North Carolina again today with an isolated severe storm possible. Coverage improves for Friday and the weekend, with better chances for loosely organized severe weather. The risk for flash flooding over the mountains will increase into the early part of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Continued hot and humid east of the mountains into the weekend, but not hot enough to reach heat advisory criteria. If you have outdoor activity planned in the afternoons through Saturday, make sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks to cool off and avoid heat-related stress. Although the Bermuda High continues to weaken and be shunted off to the south for the next few days, we retain the typical summertime heat and humidity even in the face of increasing storm chances. Beginning tonight, the western Carolinas are more under the influence of a broad and baggy mid/upper trof that will have several weak short waves rippling through it. The expectation is that storms will be scattered enough through the early part of the afternoon Friday and Saturday to allow significant warmup with temps climbing about five degrees above normal. This could easily not work out depending on upstream convection and remnant cloudiness...more on that below. The combo of forecast high temps and dewpoints is not expected to raise the heat index above advisory criteria, but it will still feel hot, especially Friday. As a northern stream upper trof deepens over the Northeast and a low cuts off across the Midwest, a sfc front is expected to drift south into the region on Sunday. The latest guidance seems to have more of a southward push with the front, being south of the fcst area by Monday morning and then staying south as weak high pressure moves across the nrn Mid-Atlantic Monday then offshore Tuesday. The signal for cold air damming Sunday into Monday looks weak on the new model runs, so confidence is relatively low with the high temp forecast. Whether or not a true CAD unfolds might end up being semantics, as there should be enough cloud cover and a cooler N/NE low level flow from the weak high to the north to keep temps on the cool side of normal. Right now, our forecast highs from Sunday to Tuesday drop down into a range 5-10 degrees below normal. Without strong CAD support, the temps might not get that cool, though. Either way, guidance suggests this will be short-lived and the temps rebound back to typical summer heat by the end of the week. Key message 2: Mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be mostly confined to western North Carolina again today with an isolated severe storm possible. Coverage improves for Friday and the weekend, with better chances for loosely organized severe weather. The risk for flash flooding over the mountains will increase into the early part of next week. Convective clouds are deepening at this hour across the forecast area, with showers and storms developing over the mtns. The environment isn't quite as favorable for pulse-severe storms this afternoon as the sfc-based CAPE is only modest...on the order of 1500-2500 J/kg...but the dCAPE should still be above 800 J/kg east of the mtns. Thus, an isolated severe wind gust producing storm won't be ruled out. In fact, the new Day 1 Outlook has an upgrade to a Marginal Risk east of the mtns. That being said, the CAMs have much better-looking storms well to our north. The storms should die off with the loss of heating this evening. The situation might get more interesting through the weekend as the guidance suggests something of an MCS track from the Mid-MS valley to the Mid-Atlantic starting on Friday. A few members of the 12Z HREF show an MCS coming across the Mid-MS valley later this evening and then toward us overnight, then it would remain to be seen how long/far east it could survive. If the system forms, it could at a minimum leave behind an MCV for outflow that would be a trigger for more storms to develop over our region on Friday. Another MCS could do the same on Friday night and have a better chance for survival all the way east into the mountains. There is much uncertainty and we look to upcoming model runs for clarity. Precip probs have been modified only slightly and will start to relax the diurnal tendency. The main concern with storms will be damaging wind gusts Friday and Saturday, and the Day 2 Convective Outlook already features an expansion of the Marginal Risk across the fcst area. The greater risk will gradually shift to heavy rain and flash flooding into early next week. Sunday should have the best rain chances as the front sags southward, and moisture should be plentiful enough to support an increased risk of flash flooding, but again details remain sketchy. Precip chances should drop once the front moves farther south on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: A few isolated to widely scattered showers and storms continue to linger across the area early this evening. This activity will gradually shift east and dissipate over the next several hours with little to no impact expected at area terminals. Quiet conditions continue overnight with less confidence in any mountain valley fog, especially outside of the Little Tennessee Valley. A busy day is in store for Friday with a return of gusty southwest winds during the afternoon and another bout of afternoon showers and storms. Coverage of convection is expected to be greater and PROB30 groups have been introduced at all terminals. Associated visibility and ceiling restrictions can be expected with any storms. Convection may linger longer tomorrow evening with additional upstream rounds bringing a shot for overnight impacts as well. Outlook: Better coverage of SHRA/TSRA continues for all terminals Saturday into Monday as multiple rounds of storms move towards and across the area. Drier conditions should develop Tuesday into Wednesday. Low stratus and/or fog will be possible each morning in the mountain valleys and in locations that see appreciable rainfall the previous afternoon/evening. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ PM/TW  283 FXUS63 KGID 092321 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 621 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms, once again moving in from the west (arriving between 10PM and 1AM), could bring a few gusty winds and small hail to mainly west/southwest portions of the area. The overall severe threat will be limited. - Showers with a few embedded storms may persist across a few locations Friday morning to early afternoon. - Temperatures will soon be on a gradual rise over the next several days with an at least 4+ day streak of 90+ degree highs expected next week. - No precipitation chances lie anywhere in the forecast past Friday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The Main Story Tonight: Storms Rolling in from the West... The main story of the day will be the chance for yet another round of storms late tonight into Friday morning. A weak shortwave disturbance popping out of the Rockies today has already started to stir up a cluster of cumulus and scattered storms across eastern Wyoming/Colorado. Though a few of these storms are expected to become severe as they cross through the rest of eastern Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle, given the time of arrival of these storms (arriving between 10PM-1AM), there is some question to how much energy/momentum may actually be left in the tank. The High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) members have been fairly consistent in portraying these storms to be in the stage of decay as they cross into the South Central Nebraska / North Central Kansas region. Generally these storm will be crossing into a less favorable environment, though 1,5000-2,000J/kg of MUCAPE as well as 20-35kt deep layer shear may still be just supportive enough for maintaining one or two stronger to marginally severe storms. IF any storm is able to stay severe, the main threats would be for gusty thunderstorm wind gusts up to 60MPH with a few areas of hail possible (up to quarter sized). The areas that would be the most susceptible for these stronger storms wold be areas west of HWY-183 in Nebraska as well as a few north central Kansas locations. The Storm Prediction Center has kept a Marginal risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5) for locations west of a line from Cozad to Alma in Nebraska and down to Beloit in Kansas. A slight risk (level 2 of 5) clips southwest portions of Rooks and Osborne counties. Though the severe threat will be fast to diminish tonight, a few weak thunderstorms embedded within a larger array of showers will still be expected to linger across a few portions of the area, to potentially as late as noon on Friday. The overall best potential for precipitation (50-80% chances) will be concentrated west and southwest of the Tri-Cities with 20-50% chances reserved for the remainder of the area (greatest chances towards the southwest). Most locations should only expect to see 0.1-0.5" of precipitation with a few more localized amounts up to 1" possible. The Main Story Next Week: Warming Temperatures & Drier Conditions Following the passage of yesterday's cold front, temperatures have been knocked down by around 5-10 degrees for today. The "coolest" day within the next week should fall Friday as highs are forecast to spread the low to mid 80s. After Friday, highs will likely take a multi-day climb with an at least 5+ day streak of 90+ degree heat on the way for next week. This streak of increasingly warmer temperatures will become the main story for next week. This warm up will be primarily driven by a building ridge across much of the central U.S. and intermountain west regions, additionally helping to snuff out most precipitation chances in the process. The Long Range Ensemble Forecast (LREF) now has a relatively strong agreement in retaining these warm and dry conditions for much of if not all of next week. The latest GFS/ECMWF models show an upper-level rex block (high pressure center north of lower pressure center) forming overtop of the Central Plains during the middle of next week. If this pattern achieves, persisting heat (mainly highs in the 90s) will be favored to stick around the area. There is still some uncertainty to how extreme this heat may become. The Weather Prediction Center, however, is beginning to highlight the potential for extreme heat next weekend (mainly on the 17th and 18th) on their extended hazard outlook. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 616 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions favored throughout TAF period with a low (15%) chance for sub-VFR conditions in scattered thunderstorms on Friday. Cloud coverage builds over the area tonight as storms move in from the west. The overall coverage of storms is expected to decrease on approach to KGRI/KEAR with scattered, off and on chances for storms possible throughout the day on Friday. The most favored times for storms will be during the early-mid morning (more likely at KEAR) and during the late afternoon. It's possible storms could briefly drop VIS/CIGS to sub-VFR but given the overall weak nature of storms expected, did not include a sub-VFR mention in the TAF. Light and variable winds are expected throughout the TAF period, becoming westerly late in the TAF period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Stump AVIATION...Davis  271 FXUS63 KLSX 092321 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 621 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A flash flood watch is in effect through Friday night in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois, with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected. - Some storms this evening and again Friday afternoon/evening may be strong to severe with damaging winds the primary threat each day. - Dry weather along with above normal temperatures are forecast Sunday through the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 GOES-19 visible satellite imagery shows 3, maybe 4 MCVs across the region all moving eastward. One is near K3LF and the other near KUIN. Both of these features has recently led to convective initiation just east/southeast of each of these in west central and south-central Illinois. One or two of these storms may be on the stronger side with damaging winds the primary threat. More convective development is expected by early this evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Moisture convergence associated with the low-level jet will also increase, and this combined with an uptick in midlevel ascent downstream of the upstream MCVs (one near OK-KS border and another possible MCV near KSTJ) should lead to more widespread showers and thunderstorms. This activity is expected to focus mainly across southeast Missouri. Concern for flash flooding is increasing, as training is expected through the early overnight hours in an environment that is supportive of high rainfall rates (deep warm cloud depths, anomalous precipitable water values). New cells should develop on the west/northwest flank of the activity through the early overnight hours as the low-level jet veers from the southwest to the west. Past events with these setups tend to have a narrow west/northwest to east/southeast axis of very heavy rainfall on the west/southwest edge of the precipitation shield. That may indeed occur again tonight, and if so, may heavily impact a portion of a few counties in southeast Missouri. The LPMM of the HREF has a narrow axis of 3-4" whereas the REFS has almost double those totals. If training occurs long enough, I would not rule out the higher-end potential of the REFS LPMM. Due to this threat for significant rainfall amounts and flash flood potential, a flash flood watch is now in effect beginning this afternoon through Friday night across southeast Missouri and a small part of southwest Illinois. The heavy rain threat overnight tonight should end around dawn with the stronger low-level moisture convergence shifting to the east/southeast more toward the lower Ohio Valley. Mostly dry conditions are then forecast through the remainder of the morning hours across the area. Attention will then look to the west again. Another MCV(s?) is likely to be moving across eastern Kansas by midday. The exact track/timing of this feature is not certain, nor is the environment ahead of it due to the morning showers and thunderstorms. The effective front may be to our south, though at least some sunshine should allow for instability to climb ahead of the approaching MCV. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast across the area, though there may be a bit more focus from central-southeast Missouri during the late afternoon/evening time frame. Similar to today, damaging winds should be the primary threat. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible as there will be little/no change in the environment so efficient warm rain processes are expected. Areas that get hit hardest tonight would be the main concern as soils may be very saturated and any additional (even brief) heavy rainfall could cause renewed hydrological issues. The low-level jet increases again Friday night, though it does not look as strong as tonight. Therefore, I think there will be another uptick in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms, but the overall threat for flash flooding likely will stay mostly confined to areas that are hardest hit tonight as alluded to in the paragraph above. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 (Saturday - Saturday Night) Uncertainty on Saturday increases, in part due to the 2-3 rounds of showers and thunderstorms anticipated before this time period. Deterministic guidance though does show a midlevel shortwave trough moving south/southwest almost beneath the amplifying mid/upper level ridge to the west. Showers and thunderstorms are again possible Saturday/Saturday night, mainly across southeast Missouri/southwest Illinois, which should be closer to the effective frontal boundary. If confidence increases in the threat for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, the existing flash flood watch may need to be extended in time. (Sunday - Next Thursday) Not a lot has changed over the past 24 hours, with a historic record- breaking mid/upper level ridge expected across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest. Our area will be within deep northeasterly flow aloft, so dry weather is expected. The low-level thermal ridge is also forecast to stay well to our north, so 850-hPa temperatures are actually pretty close normal (+16 to +20C). Nighttime lows are forecast to be near seasonal averages, with daytime highs likely a bit above normal due to plenty of sunshine expected each day. Relative humidity (dewpoint) values also should tick down early next week, aided by continued deep northeasterly flow. This means heat index values should not be too much higher than the ambient air temperature, and the chances of heat advisory duration criteria (100+ for 4+ days) seem very small attm. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 618 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The main concern will be scattered showers and thunderstorms developing at various times through the upcoming period. However, confidence in these affecting any one TAF site is fairly low. This evening's thunderstorms are likely to occur south of the St Louis metro, but may impact parts of central Missouri with JEF the most likely to be impacted. Otherwise we expect primarily mid level cloud decks well within the VFR range. Additional thunderstorms are possible tomorrow afternoon area wide, but confidence remains low on where or when. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ072>075-084-085- 099. IL...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for ILZ079. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gosselin LONG TERM...Gosselin AVIATION...Kimble  356 FXUS64 KLZK 092322 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 622 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 140 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 -Temperatures across the state will remain near normal to a few degrees above normal for the next couple of days. -Rain and isolated storm chances will become less widespread, but be present from I-40 northward on Thursday and across northern Arkansas on Friday. -A cold front will dive from the north out of Missouri into Arkansas to finish the out the weekend bringing an increased chance of widespread rain and storms to the Arkansas on Sunday into the day on Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The state of Arkansas will remain under the eastern edge of a H500 ridge through Friday. Into the weekend, a ridge pattern begins to amplify over the Western region of the CONUS, centered over the Four Corners region which will result in northwest flow over Arkansas. Into the next workweek, the center of the ridge becomes fixated over the Northern Plains region of the CONUS with easterly flow overall for the remainder of the period over Arkansas. At the sfc, a warm front will remain draped near the Arkansas/Missouri border keeping respectable POP chances in the forecast through Friday across the northern half of the state. Into the weekend, this feature will move northward into Missouri and stall as a stationary front across central Missouri, but remain in close enough proximity to warrant decent POP chances across the far northern tier of Arkansas. Into the late weekend/upcoming workweek, this feature is progged to become a cold front and dive back southward into Arkansas by Monday. As this transition occurs, increased POP chances will be noted statewide Sunday into Monday. For the remainder of the workweek or the middle of next week, POP chances are expected to lower slightly, but remain present as a few upper lvl disturbances meander over the state to close out the period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 614 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions to prevail through the period. LLWS builds into the North and Western portion of the area as the sun sets this evening due to an approaching low pressure system from the west. This is expected to erode early tomorrow morning. Isolated TS activity is possible thorough the evening in northern terminals but recent CAM runs have back off on coverage considerably. Gusty SSW winds will build in tomorrow during the day, and eventually TS chances will begin to increase across the north again tomorrow afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 94 78 95 76 / 20 10 20 40 Camden AR 95 76 96 76 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 93 78 94 75 / 20 10 20 30 Hot Springs AR 95 78 95 77 / 0 0 0 10 Little Rock AR 95 79 97 78 / 0 0 0 10 Monticello AR 95 77 96 78 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 92 77 93 77 / 0 0 0 10 Mountain Home AR 93 77 93 74 / 20 20 30 40 Newport AR 95 78 96 76 / 20 10 20 30 Pine Bluff AR 95 77 95 77 / 0 10 0 10 Russellville AR 95 79 96 78 / 20 0 10 10 Searcy AR 95 77 96 76 / 10 0 10 10 Stuttgart AR 95 78 96 77 / 0 0 0 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ016-025-033-034- 045>047-057-065. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...78  393 FXUS64 KOHX 092323 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 623 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 619 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire CWA from 1 PM Thursday to 6 PM Sunday. Remember to Turn Around, Don't Drown if you encounter flooded roadways. - A marginal risk for severe weather (level 1/5) exists for Middle Tennessee through Sunday. Primary hazard is damaging winds, but this is secondary to flooding potential. - Drier conditions expected next week, with continuing diurnal showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1139 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 An MCS around St. Louis is making its way SE this afternoon, with plentiful outflow boundaries and diurnal cu visible on satellite imagery. Still expecting today to get into the mid 80s to low 90s. WAA will continue for the area through Saturday aloft, but the temperatures will have to contend with the precipitation. Despite this, we will still have heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s both Thursday and Friday. SPC has placed the area in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for today and Friday. Main hazard from this is damaging winds for the afternoon today, however, as we shift into the overnight hours our threat will shift as well. As a shortwave trough interacts with an increasing 700mb LLJ in Middle Tennessee, moisture in the atmosphere will increase as well, providing a prime opportunity for flash flooding overnight. The flood watch across our area remains in effect through the weekend to account for other rain chances, but tonight will be a decent threat given how the ground responded with this morning's thunderstorms. Into Friday afternoon and evening, things will shift to more isolated to scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms, but these will also pose a flooding risk with torrential rain expected in stronger thunderstorms. Marginal is the best word to describe our severe risk, as shear remains in the barely double digits which is far below what is necessary for sustained storms but CAPE is high across the region. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1139 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Into the weekend, as various rain chances continue to careen through Middle Tennessee, chances for flash flooding will be on the rise. Remember to Turn Around, Don't Drown if you encounter any flooded areas. NEVER attempt to drive through them, as you don't know how deep the water truly is! We could also see some isolated severe storms through Sunday, as we are in a Marginal (level 1 out of 5) outlook for severe weather from SPC through the weekend. Similar setups to what's going on in the short term, with the addition of some remnant outflow boundaries from previous storms. Hazards right now look to be mainly gusty winds and heavy rain, resulting in flash flooding. Into next week, things look warmer, yet drier. I don't mean fewer rain chances, I mean less humidity. Walking outdoors will no longer feel like walking through a swimming pool, with heat indices forecasted to be close to air temperature through mid-week next week. Unfortunately, it does appear as rain chances will continue as diurnal showers and thunderstorms are pervasive in the forecast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Terminals are currently clear of storm activity, but a round of showers and storms are expected to impact the terminals overnight. There is a low chance CKV/BNA/MQY is impacted prior to 03z but those chances are too low to include. The higher chances are expected to come after 06z. IFR/MVFR vis along with MVFR cigs will be possible with any shower or storm that impacts the terminals. A break from showers and storms is expected Friday afternoon with low to medium storm chances returning after 11/00z at BNA. Winds will be out of the SSW/SW at 10 kts or less outside of any storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 73 90 74 88 / 50 70 80 90 Clarksville 74 89 73 88 / 60 70 70 80 Crossville 68 83 68 81 / 30 80 90 90 Columbia 73 90 73 88 / 30 60 70 90 Cookeville 70 85 70 83 / 40 90 80 90 Jamestown 68 83 68 82 / 40 90 100 90 Lawrenceburg 72 88 72 86 / 30 60 70 90 Murfreesboro 73 90 73 88 / 40 70 70 90 Waverly 73 89 73 87 / 50 60 70 80 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TNZ005>011-023>034- 056>066-075-077>080-093>095. && $$ SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Reagan  421 FXUS62 KFFC 092324 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 724 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered afternoon showers and storms are expected Friday, becoming numerous to widespread over the weekend. - A few storms through this weekend may become strong with wind gusts up to 40-50mph and locally heavy rain. - Heat index values peak between 95-105 through Saturday. Heat Advisory for portions of East-Central GA from 12-8PM today. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 152 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Rinse and repeat as summertime continues with a few showers and thunderstorms possible and hot temps. As is normal for this time a year, a strong area of high pressure churns over the Atlantic and keeps the southeast in an open warm sector, increasing diurnally driven convection each afternoon. Not as much coverage is expected today, but a few showers and typical summer thunderstorms are possible. Best chances are in the NW portion of Georgia (45-65%), with PoPs quickly decreasing southward into central Georgia (20- 45%). As for Friday, similar story with any convection and showers, with the northwest portion of the state having the increased PoP chances. The main hazard from any storm should be damaging winds, especially in the northern part of the state. As for the heat, the temperatures remain hot in the short term. Low to upper 90s spanning from north to south with the hotter temps toward central Georgia. Since we remain in an open warm sector and an abundance of moisture still lingering, hot heat indices are still on track. Triple digits for today and Friday, with a smattering of 105-108 possible toward SE Georgia. For this, another Heat Advisory in effect through 8 PM. Since the forecast is almost the same for tomorrow, expect another Heat Advisory for Friday in the SE portion of the state. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday morning through next Wednesday) Issued at 152 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 It's gonna be a rainy weekend. Maybe not a total washout, but if you have outdoor plans you might want to reconsider. Saturday afternoon, chances of thunderstorms become likely across northern Georgia before spreading to all of the CWA by Sunday afternoon. A few storms could be strong to severe with the main threat being damaging winds, but the signal for widespread severe weather is not too concerning. The rain-cooled environment and NW flow will give us a break from the heat, with highs in the mid to upper 80s by Sunday which will linger through the start of the work week. By next Wednesday though, the heat will start to build again as a Bermuda high re- establishes and tropical moisture builds back in. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 717 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions will largely prevail through the period. Sct cu 4-6 kft will again develop 15-18Z Friday with sct SHRA/TSRA increasing after 18Z, especially at ATL area and AHN sites. Winds will be W to SW at 3-6 kts overnight and 7-10 kts on Friday. Gusty winds will be possible within and near thunderstorms. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... High confidence. RW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 74 95 75 93 / 20 30 20 40 Atlanta 75 93 75 91 / 20 30 20 60 Blairsville 67 85 68 82 / 20 50 40 70 Cartersville 73 93 74 90 / 30 40 30 70 Columbus 75 94 75 94 / 20 10 10 20 Gainesville 73 93 74 90 / 10 30 20 50 Macon 75 95 75 94 / 20 10 10 30 Rome 72 92 73 89 / 20 40 30 80 Peachtree City 73 92 73 91 / 20 30 20 50 Vidalia 78 100 78 99 / 20 10 10 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ085-086-097-098- 106-108>113. && $$ SHORT TERM...Patterson LONG TERM....Vaughn AVIATION...RW  436 FXUS64 KCRP 092324 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 624 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 622 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Medium rain chances Friday into the weekend, with isolated pockets of heavy rainfall and high rainfall accumulations - Moderate risk of heat-related impacts continue, with peak heat indices between 103-108 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 131 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A plume of moisture is moving into the area this afternoon. PWAT values are climbing toward 2 inches along the Middle Texas Coast and will continue to rise into Friday and Saturday. Most convection today has been confined to marine areas and think sea breeze will be relatively quiet today, though an isolated shower or storm can't be ruled out. Late tonight and through Friday morning is when we'll notice the increase in rain chances especially for the Coastal Plains, with sea breeze aided convection farther west in the afternoon. With a mid-level disturbance in the area should be able to realize a 50-60 PoP for the daytime Friday for most of the area. While area average rainfall will likely be under an inch, the high level of deep moisture would support isolated higher amounts, possibly in the area of 2-3 inches. We have dried out pretty well from the rains last month, so flooding concerns are minimal. Rain chances continue into Saturday, but with loss of mid-level support and a building ridge, coverage is expected to be lower. By Sunday into early next week a very anomalous ridge (nearly 600 dam!) will set up over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest with a number of easterly convectively-enhanced disturbances pivoting westward towards Texas along its southern periphery. These disturbances will likely track along an 850-700mb boundary/convergence zone, creating a zone of active weather Monday through the middle of next week somewhere along the western Gulf. Guidance is not in good agreement on whether this boundary sets up north of the area or over portions of the area so will leave scattered PoPs for now, but it is something to watch as somewhere in the TX/Western LA range will likely see heavy rainfall and training of storms. Temperatures will remain near normal through the period, with some increase in heat indices heading into the weekend as dewpoints creep up with the moisture surge. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Generally VFR conditions will prevail overnight outside of a low chance of an brief MVFR ceiling late tonight into Friday morning. Storm chances will increase over the Coastal Plains Friday morning and peak at most terminals Friday afternoon, although due to uncertainty elected to only include Prob30s with this TAF package. Similar to previous nights SErly winds will decrease this evening before increasing again by mid-morning to sustained 10-15kts with gusts to around 20-25 kt. && .MARINE... Issued at 131 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Mainly moderate south-southeasterly winds (BF 3-4) will persist through much of the period with somewhat lighter winds in the mornings next week. Some isolated storms can be expected today with scattered storms expected tonight through Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 78 90 80 91 / 20 50 20 30 Victoria 77 93 78 94 / 20 50 20 40 Laredo 77 96 78 98 / 10 20 10 30 Alice 75 92 77 93 / 10 60 20 40 Rockport 81 91 83 91 / 40 70 30 40 Cotulla 76 94 77 96 / 10 30 20 40 Kingsville 76 90 78 91 / 20 60 20 30 Navy Corpus 81 89 83 90 / 30 60 30 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PH/83 AVIATION...NC/91  558 FXUS61 KBGM 092326 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 726 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Precipitation chances were slightly reduced across the area for this afternoon and evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warm and humid conditions today, with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible later this afternoon into tonight across the area. 2) Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening along a stalled frontal boundary with localized flash flooding possible over the Twin Tiers into the Wyoming Valley. 3) After seasonal temperatures this weekend, heat builds into the area through the middle of next week with possible storms. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Warm and moderately humid conditions across the area this afternoon. Temperatures will top out in the mid 80s to low 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. It will feel slightly muggy out, but nothing like last week. Heat indices will only be a few degrees higher than actual temperatures so heat headlines were not needed for today. Showers and storms are expected to develop across portions of the area later this afternoon and evening. Model soundings are showing a mid level warm nose, capping convection across the area this afternoon. This should last into the early evening hours before finally breaking and allowing some isolated storms to develop. A very positively tilted trough and associated surface boundary is spread across the Great Lakes into Ontario and will slowly slide into the area late this afternoon into the evening. MLCAPE values of 1000-1500j/kg are expected to be present across the northern Finger Lakes into Oneida county late this afternoon and evening along with 0-6km bulk shear increasing to around 30kts. These parameters combined with the mid-level cap breaking should allow for a few storms to develop over the northern Finger Lakes into Oneida county. The window for these storms to become severe looks to be small as the cap is forecast to break only a few hours before sunset. That being said, an isolated severe storm with strong to damaging winds cannot be ruled out over this area. Storm activity is progged to weaken as the evening progresses, but a few isolated showers and storms cannot be ruled out across the area into the overnight hours with the late breaking cap and warm and humid air sticking around. The trough is slowly moving to the east, and with its positive tilt, steering winds are mostly west to east. This will allow the "cool" front moving in from Canada to very slowly slide south through the area through the overnight hours into Friday. A few showers could develop along the boundary as it slides south. KEY MESSAGE 2... With the frontal boundary slowly sliding south and synoptic winds continuing to be from the west, humidity is expected to remain high but temperatures will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s on Friday. By Friday afternoon, a shortwave bringing some mid- level flow enhancement is forecast to move into the area. This shortwave combined with the front draped somewhere across the Twin Tiers will kick off scattered afternoon showers and storms across portions of the Finger Lakes, Twin Tiers and into the Catskills and Poconos. CAPE values around 1500j/kg combined with 0-6km bulk shear increasing to 30-40kts with the shortwave will allow for isolated severe storms to be possible from Steuben county east into the central Southern Tier and SE into the Wyoming Valley and Poconos, with damaging winds as the main threat. A Marginal Risk for severe storms has been issued by the SPC over this area. To go along with the isolated severe threat, heavy rainfall leading to isolated flash flooding will also be possible across the Twin Tiers into the Wyoming Valley and Poconos. PWATs of 1.5-2in, MBE vectors below 10kts showing slow moving or back building storms, warm cloud depths of 11-12k ft allowing for efficient rainfall generation and a slow moving boundary all add up to a Marginal Risk for flash flooding across the aforementioned area. Showers and storms should dissipate in the evening as daytime heating ends and the trough axis finally moves through the area, switching synoptic flow to northerly and ushering in cooler, drier air to the region. Friday night lows and dewpoints will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Key Message 3... High pressure will be in control over the area for the weekend, keeping flow northerly and conditions dry and seasonal. A very strong ridge centered over the western US will be the main weather driver through at least the middle of next week. The ridge positioning this weekend will push the eastern edge of a surface high into our area. This will keep flow out of the north through the weekend with pleasant seasonal conditions expected. The ridge will strengthen and build into the north central US by Monday. This will shift winds to westerly through mid-week and push hot air into the region. Monday should be the most "pleasant" warm day as temperatures climb into the mid to upper 80s but dewpoints remain in the upper 50s. The humidity will return by Tuesday and through mid-week as dewpoints climb up into the mid 60s. We may also see some storms develop and ride the edge of the ridge into our region. Confidence in this occurring is low at this time, but the pattern that is setting up lends itself to mesoscale convective systems developing over the north central US and that energy riding the ridge into our area. This is very dependent on where the MCS develops and how the flow around the ridge is oriented. Lots of times these systems have to develop first before model guidance can catch on to it and give us an idea of where storms may go, but the setup is good enough to mention the chance of this occurring now. Long range model guidance is hinting at the center of the ridge retrograding westward back over the western US. This would more than likely put a trough over eastern Canada that would influence our weather pattern with cooler temperatures but more precipitation chances. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Isolated showers and thunderstorms look to stay away from all terminals this evening at this time. A brief gust was noted at KITH but that thunderstorm is moving between KITH and KSYR. Still monitoring a few thunderstorm well west of KAVP possibly requiring a TEMPO later on if they don't weaken over the next hour or two. Confidence is higher with a MVFR stratus deck forming over all CNY terminals by the overnight hours with the potential for a few spots getting down to fuel-alternate levels. Ceilings should lift slowly to VFR by early afternoon. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible at KELM,KITH,KBGM and KAVP Friday afternoon but coverage and timing is too uncertain for TAF mention at this time. Outlook: Friday night...Dissipating showers and thunderstorms early...then patchy valley fog late. Restrictions possible. Saturday into Tuesday...VFR likely with high pressure building in, morning fog potential at ELM. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JTC AVIATION...MWG  530 FXUS63 KEAX 092326 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 626 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and again on Friday. The severe risk is low today, however a few stronger storms could produce gusty winds, small hail, and pockets of heavy rain. Stronger storms are possible on Friday. - Dry with a warming trend Sunday into next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Morning storms have pushed east into central and eastern Missouri with clearing skies. Gravity waves in the wake of the storms can be picked out in GOES satellite imagery across the area. Farther west satellite imagery shows daytime cumulus blossoming around outflow boundaries left behind by morning convection and in the vicinity of a diffuse surface low across Kansas. This area has our attention for potential convective initiation later this afternoon and evening. Temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s already this afternoon with a pool of 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE just south of the I-70 corridor. As the low slides east and encounters better instability storms are expected to develop. With modest forcing widespread activity is not anticipated though isolated storms are expected. These storms would be capable of gusty wind and small hail, with weaker shear limiting more robust development. Pockets of heavy rain are also possible with PWATs near 2" and deep warm cloud layers of 3500+ m. Storms motions are fairly slow at around 15 kts and could further support flood concerns, especially in urban areas. An embedded shortwave will move across Kansas overnight with convection fueled by the low level jet. That convection is expected to reach western Missouri around sunrise Friday, diminishing as the MCS moves east across the area through the morning. As the associated surface low moves across the area from midday into the evening, restrengthening of storms is anticipated. The degree of strengthening will depend on how much destabilization can occur into the afternoon, though synoptic support should help. Soundings indicate around 2000+ J/kg of MLCAPE with 30-40+ kts of shear to organize storms. Hail and damaging wind gusts are possible along and south of the I-70 corridor. Pockets of heavy rain are once again possible with PWATs exceeding 2" in some places and deep warm cloud layers allowing for efficient rain production. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Ridging builds as the shortwave lifts east. There is uncertainty in how quickly that shortwave may lift east and any lingering boundaries across the area that may allow for isolated convection on Saturday. Placement will depend heavily on evolution Friday, which depends on evolution today, leading to high uncertainty. There is very little available shear for storm organization, so any storms that are able to develop on Saturday may be pulsey with low severe potential. The ridge continues to build Sunday into next week, keeping the area dry and kicking off a warming trend. Temperatures warm back into the low 90s next week, though dewpoints remain lower in the upper 60s. This will help to keep heat indicies more in check than last week, though area along an south of the I-70 corridor may still approach 100 by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 614 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The next 24 hours is permeated with uncertainty in regards to the timing of showers and thunderstorms. Shower/thunderstorm development in the corridor of terminals has grown less and less likely as the evening progresses...as such, no mention of TS or RA in the TAFs for the remainder of the evening. Can't rule out the possibility for an isolated shower or storm elsewhere this evening, primarily in central and north central MO. In the morning, a complex of decaying storms will approach eastern KS and western MO; opted for a PROB30 for -SHRA to account for the weakening trend. Later Friday afternoon/evening, thunderstorm development is possible. Timing determinations have been difficult as it will be heavily dependent on how the atmosphere recovers following the aforementioned showers/storms in the morning. Best window for TSRA looks to be between 20Z thru 24Z but this timeframe may need to be adjusted in future forecast updates. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None.posisble KS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hagenhoff LONG TERM...Hagenhoff AVIATION...Macko  588 FXUS64 KLUB 092327 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 627 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 614 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Hot temperatures will continue through Saturday, before a modest cooling and wetter trend develops early next week. - Isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances will exist each afternoon for portions of the far SW TX Panhandle and northern South Plains. - The severe threat remains low although a few marginally severe wind gusts to 55 mph will be possible. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Influence from the H5 upper level ridge and area of high pressure will continue across the West Texas/Panhandle regions through the short term period as the FA finds itself within the eastern periphery of the broadly stretched 595 dam upper high. Despite the modest decrease in geopotential heights, with weak shortwave troughing translating from the Rocky Mountains into the Southern Plains, persistent southerly flow will maintain WAA through the lower to mid-level aiding to an increase in thickness values across the region. As a result, we can expect to see afternoon highs a few degrees warmer today with 850 mb temperatures around 25C to 30C suggesting highs in the upper 90s to lower triple digits. NBM temperatures this afternoon were altered using a blend of NBM 50th to account for the warming trend given NBM seemed a bit too cool given how hot it got yesterday with not as strong WAA. Although confidence remains low, subtle disturbances rippling through the main flow along with upslope component to the wind by late afternoon will work to generate isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico. However, steering flow remains fairly weak which leads to the question if storms can maintain themselves before reaching the area. If storms can make it into the area this evening, they will likely be high-based, given the evident dry sub-cloud layer on forecast soundings. Therefore a few strong the marginally severe wind gusts up to 55 mph cannot be ruled out. Tonight, expect quiet and mild conditions to continue, similar to previous nights with mostly clear skies and overnight lows in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Similar conditions are expected once again tomorrow as the upper level ridge begins to amplify as it translates slowly eastward. In response, we will see a slight uptick in height values while thickness values remain stagnant across the region. Therefore, temperatures will likely be similar to Thursday in the upper 90s to lower triple digits. Winds will remain out of the southwest through early afternoon thanks to lee troughing continuing across southeastern CO before backing once again out of the southeast by late afternoon/early evening as the surface low digs southward into portions of eastern NM/TX Panhandle. Simultaneously, a shortwave trough will begin to dig through the Southern Plains by Friday afternoon, given where this looks to set up most precipitation from this area of large scale ascent will remain to our north. However, moist upslope component to the wind will work with ripples within the north-northwest flow aloft to generate higher terrain thunderstorms in eastern New Mexico. Given better steering flow aloft, confidence is higher for Friday for thunderstorms to track into portions of the far southwestern- central Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. The severe weather threat remains low, however given inverted-V profile soundings we cannot rule out a strong to marginally severe wind gust with stronger storm cores. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Through the extended forecast period we will begin to see the upper level high wobble itself eastward, centering itself over the Central/High Plains by early next week as the upper ridge amplifies itself over much of the central CONUS. Northwest flow aloft will begin to veer out of the north through the weekend, becoming more northeasterly to easterly by early to mid next week. Deterministic guidance diverges slightly on the progression of this upper high as it tracks east, with models like the ECMWF keeping the base of the high over the Caprock regions, suppressing most precipitation chances from the region. While models like the GFS keep the base of the high to our north allowing for chances for precipitation through much of the late weekend into early next week. Depending on where the upper level ridge and associated upper high sets up will be the main factor in determining the intensity and coverage and precipitation chances through the extended package. Although precipitation is uncertain, there is higher confidence in "cooler" temperatures returning to the Caprock regions as early as Sunday. Warm southwesterly flow from H7 to the surface will begin to back out of the southeast in response to the expanding surface high to our north shifting the surface trough into central NM. As a result, we will begin to see moist return flow set-up across the region which should not only increase moisture from the lower to mid-levels but also help limit afternoon highs from reaching the triple digits with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s expected. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 614 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Hot southerly breezes (check density altitude) will veer southwesterly late this evening. Gustiness will be reduced this evening, but likely renew late tonight as a modest LLJ keeps the lower atmosphere mixed. Another lull in the gustiness will follow Friday morning before winds back to the south with renewed gustiness Friday afternoon. Convection approaching the region from eastern New Mexico is expected to fade well before reaching the terminals, though residual mid-high cloud is likely to overspread the terminals late tonight. Regardless, VFR will be the rule. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...23  533 FXUS65 KBOI 092326 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 526 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory Friday and Saturday for lower elevations of southwest Idaho and southeast Oregon. - Hot and dry, with breezy afternoon winds through the weekend. - Shower and thunderstorm chances return early next week with the arrival of monsoon moisture. && .SHORT TERM /Through Saturday Night/... Issued 152 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2026 A broad upper level high pressure centered over the Rocky Mtns will expand into the region Friday and Saturday. The resulting warming will push temperatures to around 100 degrees across lower elevations, to include the Snake Plain and Weiser River basin. After Friday's heat, warm overnight lows Friday night will limit recovery for those without a way to cool down. The heat peaks on Saturday with much of the Advisory area reaching 100-103, while locations around Glenns Ferry push to 105. Winds will pick up some Friday afternoon, with the heat low enhancing the evening wind push through Baker County. Saturday will see broader coverage of breezy conditions as increasing southwest flow aloft mixes to the surface. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued 152 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2026 Continued hot through the period (4 to 8 degrees above normal) under high pressure aloft to our east encompassing the entire Great Basin, Rocky Mountains, and northern Plains states. An upper trough in the Gulf of Alaska will bring gradual cooling Tuesday through Thursday as it moves onto the northwest coast. Southwest flow aloft will transport mid and high level monsoon moisture over Oregon Monday and Tuesday, and Idaho Tuesday and Wednesday, for a slight chance of thunderstorms, with initial storms bringing gusty winds and little rain, and later storms being wetter, especially Wednesday, as PWAT values climb to 1.00-1.20 inch (i.e., 95th percentile relative to climatology). Concern will gradually shift from fire danger Monday and Tuesday due to lightning on dry fuels, to flash-flood potential by Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday through Saturday/... Issued 520 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2026 VFR. Areas of reduced visibility from wildfire smoke. High density altitude due to heat. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt, becoming light and variable overnight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S-W 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR. High density altitude due to heat. Visibility reduced at times by wildfire smoke in foothills N and NE of KBOI. Surface winds: NW 7-12 kt with gusts to 20 kt until 10/02z, then light and variable overnight. Weekend Outlook...VFR. Areas of reduced visibility from wildfire smoke. Isolated convection over central ID mountains Friday. High density altitude due to heat, especially Saturday. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-15 kt Friday through Sunday. Afternoon gusts to 20-30 kt across E Oregon and the Snake Basin in SW Idaho south to the ID/NV border. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Heat Advisory from noon Friday to 9 PM MDT Saturday for IDZ012- 014>016-030-033. OR...Heat Advisory from noon MDT /11 AM PDT/ Friday to 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/ Saturday for ORZ064. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....CH SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....LC  787 FXUS62 KJAX 092331 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 731 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Isolated Afternoon Thunderstorms Today & Friday. Storm coverage increases this weekend into early next week. Locally heavy rainfall possible Sunday through Tuesday - Heat Advisory NE FL and SE GA Today and Friday. Peak Heat Index: 105-111 Most Areas. Heat Advisory for Northeast FL & Coastal Southeast GA Friday. Major Heat Risk through Friday and Saturday - Moderate Rip Current Risk Beaches Today && .UPDATE... Quick update to increase coverage of showers/storms across NE FL from JAX metro area southward through the I-95 corridor and St. Johns River Basin, these should generally last through sunset before weakening and pushing offshore with gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Also, updated Friday forecast to include Heat Advisory for coastal SE GA and all of NE FL for heat indices to peak out in the 107-110F range as Max Temps will reach into the upper 90s/near 100F for most locations. Some drier air will mix down across inland SE GA where heat indices will top out in the 104-107F range, and have left out of the Heat Advisory for now. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Main Highlights through Tonight: - Heat Advisory Area-Wide Today - Isolated Afternoon and Evening Storms High pressure ridge axis will remain across central and south Florida maintaining SW flow across the area. Another hot day is in store with prevailing subsidence and a pinned Atlantic sea breeze. Highs will rise into the mid-upper 90s with max heat indices in the 105-110 F range. A Heat Advisory is in effect area-wide through this evening. Highest heat indices will likely be along the coast and St Johns river basin. A pocket of relatively drier air combined with subsidence will suppress convection today across the Suwannee Valley, I-10 corridor and portions of inland SE GA. Lingering tropical moisture (PWATs 2+ in) over north-central FL will allow for a few showers and storms to develop along the Gulf sea breeze as it shifts inland this afternoon. Activity increases in coverage as the Gulf sea breeze interacts with the pinned Atlantic sea breeze along the coast later this afternoon into evening. Meanwhile, an upper shortwave will pass through inland SE GA providing enough lift and moisture to trigger a few showers and storms mainly in the Ocmulgee/Altamaha river basins later this afternoon into evening. Convection wanes by midnight. Overnight lows will be in the mid- upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights During This Period: - Heat Advisory potential for Friday and Saturday - Lower convective chances Friday, but increased chance Saturday Low to mid level ridge will remain the primary weather feature of influence for Friday and most of Saturday as well before starting to break down and weaken on Saturday Night. Mean layer moisture will continue to remain somewhat limited, as PWATs average generally in the 1.7 to 1.8 inch range during the short term period, with some pockets as low as around 1.6 inches across southeast GA on Friday. There does look to be an uptick in available moisture Saturday, especially over northeast FL and therefore also expecting an uptick in rain chances across this same area. Steering flow looks to remain out of the southwest, though the weakening flow will also more of a southeasterly sea breeze to develop, especially on Saturday. This sea breeze making at least some progress inland combined with the progressing Gulf coast breeze will bring the focus area for highest PoPs/stronger t'stormpotential to be generally over interior/central areas. The main concern continues to be dangerous heat risk for both Friday and Saturday, as high temperatures rise into the mid to upper 90s, even at the immediate Atlantic coast with southwest flow. Max temps may hit century mark in some spots each afternoon, however, the "saving grace" that may prevent any heat products will be excellent mixing of some of the drier air aloft each afternoon, limiting dew points to the upper 60s for many and therefore average heat indices around the 103 to 108 range. In addition, more higher clouds and gradual increase in convective coverage could also limit this potential. Will let the next shift make the final decision on this later tonight. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Main Highlights During This Period: - Unsettled Pattern Develops for Sunday Onward - Not as hot Monday to Wednesday High pressure ridging remains weak and generally south of the region for most of the long term period as a frontal boundary drops southward towards the region Sunday and Sunday Night, becoming diffuse over/just north of the region for the next several days thereafter. The stalled boundary and continued southwest flow/moisture advection will result in higher coverage of showers and t'storms daily for at least Sunday through Tuesday, and possibly into Wednesday as well. This rainfall will remain overall beneficial to the lingering drought, though locally heavy rainfall and/or training of heavy rainfall will elevate the risk for excessive rainfall/flooding. Temperatures drop a few degrees by Sunday, with more cloud cover and rain coverage dropping temps even further towards or slightly below normal moving towards Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Lingering TSRA chances at CRG/VQQ/SGJ until 02Z, then mainly VFR conds with just a few high clouds through the overnight hours, along with some patchy MVFR fog chances at VQQ from 07-11Z. Another hot day with W-SW winds around 8 knots during the morning hours along with SCT025 clouds by 14Z, then mixing out by the afternoon. TSRA chances increase late in the period, but chances remain too low for PROB or TEMPO groups at this time, so have placed VCTS from 20Z through 24Z at NE FL TAF sites as isolated convection is possible. && .MARINE... High pressure ridge will remain anchored across central and south Florida this week as low pressure troughing develops to the north. This pattern will maintain a southwest flow through early afternoon followed by late afternoon and evening wind surges from the south and an increase to Small Craft Exercise Caution wind speeds. The offshore flow will allow for a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorm over the local coastal waters through Friday, with increased chances of thunderstorms Saturday through early next week. Mariners should expect locally strong wind gusts and frequent lightning with any developing thunderstorms. Rip Currents: Low to moderate risk of rip currents continues through the end of the week due to fairly low surf conditions and a mainly offshore flow. Enhanced potential occurs each afternoon/evening with the south-southeast wind surge in the wake of the sea breeze. Surf remains generally in the 1-3 feet range. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Areas Of High Dispersions Inland Today And Friday - Heat Advisory In Effect Today High pressure ridge will prevailing just south of the area through Saturday. Drier than normal conditions are forecast today through Saturday before rain chances begin to increase late weekend and into early next week as a frontal boundary approaches from the north. Above average temperatures and dangerous maximum afternoon heat index values expected through Saturday. Southwesterly surface winds continue through Friday, with areas of high afternoon dispersion inland but especially inland southeast GA each day. Despite drier air in place, minRH will remain above critical values, in the 35 to 45% range away from the coast. Fog Potential and other remarks: Significant fog potential is not expected through Friday night. Erratic wind gusts possible in and near thunderstorms, and at times, at a distance due to outflows. && .CLIMATE... Summer heat continues. There is potential for some locations to get to the century mark today with probability of this occurrence at about 30 to 40 percent. These probabilities look a bit higher for Friday. For the next few days, here are the record high temperatures that are within 3 degrees of the current forecast: July 9th: KJAX: 101/1879 KGNV: 99/1932 KAMG: 100/1986 KCRG: 101/2016 July 10th: KJAX: 102/1879 KGNV: 99/1914 KAMG: 99/1980 KCRG: 99/2016 July 11th: KGNV: 100/1900 KAMG: 100/1980 KCRG: 99/1998 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 75 98 74 98 / 20 20 10 10 SSI 80 95 80 97 / 40 20 0 10 JAX 76 100 76 98 / 30 30 10 50 SGJ 77 96 76 96 / 40 30 10 30 GNV 74 98 74 96 / 20 50 20 50 OCF 75 98 74 96 / 20 40 10 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024- 030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232- 233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for FLZ021-023-024- 030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232- 233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633. GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149- 151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for GAZ153-154-165- 166. MARINE...None. && $$  773 FXUS63 KABR 092330 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 630 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Slight (Level 2 of 5) to Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms to develop this afternoon through evening for central South Dakota. Hail of 1 to 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts of 60 to 70 miles per hour will be the main threats. - A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms to develop Friday afternoon into evening over far eastern SD and west central MN. Hail of 1 inch in diameter will be the main threat. - A warming trend begins by the end of the week, and highs may potentially hit triple digits Sunday through Tuesday. This level of heat may cause widespread heat related impacts particularly for those without adequate cooling and those sensitive to heat. && .UPDATE... Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Aviation discussion updated below for the 00Z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 131 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A frontal boundary will be moving over western SD this afternoon and then pushing east into central SD during the evening and overnight hours. Instability over central SD will be increasing through the day, with CAPE values looking to get up onto the 1000-2000 J/kg and shear values between 30-35kts. This will make for a good environment for storms to continue to move into and/or develop over central SD during the later afternoon into the evening hours. There is a slight (level 2 of 5) to marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for these storms to become severe. With DCAPE values of 1200-1300 J/kg and lapse rates of 7.5 C/km, the primary hazards are large hail of 1 to 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts of 60-70 mph. Into the overnight hours, the storms will continue to move east into a weaker environment that will likely cause the storms to dissipate before they reach northeastern SD. Friday morning, the frontal boundary will be moving into northeastern SD. As it moves in during the early morning, some isolated showers and storms could develop in that area as it will have a little bit of instability. Though there will not be a lot of shear for severe storm development. Additionally, weaker lapse rates will reduce the risk for large hail. There could be some gusty winds as well as some small hail that could occur in the storms that pop up. The boundary will not move too much through the day, and with a fair bit of instability building up over northeastern SD through the day, storms could develop during the afternoon into the evening over northeastern SD and west central MN. At the moment, the NAM shows up to 30 kts of shear and lapse rates around 6-7 C/km, which could help with hail development. This leads to the primary threat from the storms to be hail up to 1 inch in diameter, though some stronger wind gusts cannot be ruled out. An upper-level ridge will be moving high pressure in over SD this weekend. This will help to keep precipitation chances from developing showers and storms over central and northeastern SD Saturday through Monday. The high pressure will also help move warm temperatures, about 10-20 degrees warmer than normal, in during the weekend and into the beginning of next week. Max temperatures and heat index values will be in the 90s on Saturday and in the mid 90s to triple digits Sunday and Monday. We are holding off on an extreme heat watch/warning at the moment because the days with the highest risk are still a few days out and things could still change a bit. Central and northeastern SD and west central MN are right on the edge of extreme heat warning criteria, and might fall more into a heat advisory. Because of the lower confidence in things at the moment, a heat headline will likely needto be issued a little later. The high temperatures and heat index values as well as the warmer low temperatures at night have caused the NWS Heat Risk to show high chances of getting into Major category as well as some lower chances of getting into Extreme category Saturday through Tuesday. During these times, those sensitive to heat or without adequate cooling or hydration could see heat related impacts and/or develop heat illnesses. Make sure to avoid strenuous outdoor work and exercise during the hottest parts of the day and to stay hydrated. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Widely scattered TSRA expected across portions of central SD this evening, possible affecting KPIR/KMBG, and to a lesser extent KABR later in the evening. CIGs are forecast to remain VFR, but heavier downpours could bring MVFR/IFR VSBY if a TSRA moves over a TAF site. Overall, VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TMT DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...TMT  759 FXUS63 KMPX 092330 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 630 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered diurnal storms are expected Friday and Friday evening across Minnesota. Otherwise, very little chances for precip through the middle of next week. - A long duration heat wave moves in this weekend and continues through most of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 It is a pleasant day across the region with warm temperatures near 80, light winds, mostly sunny skies, and low humidity. Some of the more developed CU have formed a few showers across southeast MN and central WI, but these are southeast of the area. Other small clusters of storms exist across ND and the Black Hills of SD - a preview of what is to come Friday across MN with the approach of a weakening cold front. Heights Friday will begin rising steadily. While this generally is not favorable for convection, the cold front and an uncapped 2000-3000 J/kg of SBCAPE will develop during the afternoon across western MN. Scattered thunderstorms are possible during that time. Winds throughout the column will be light, but enough veering should exist to squeeze out 20-30 kts of bulk shear. This may allow one or two storms to become more vigorous and the strongest updrafts could contain some hail. Activity should diminish quickly after sunset and likely before reaching eastern MN and WI. The front will wash out Saturday as the ridge continues to build over the Rockies. H5 heights will already be approaching 600 dam over Wyoming by Sunday morning. The ridge will center itself farther east over the northern Plains and/and Upper Midwest early next week while potentially strengthening to an incredible 601-602 dam. The 00Z ECMWF mean heights break all- time records at 700, 500, and 200 mb across MN and the eastern Dakotas Sunday through Tuesday - signaling a truly historic event. As the previous shift noted, the max observed 500 mb height in our local upper air record is 598 dam. Upper air features alone, this would mean an incredibly intense heat wave. However, lower level features tell a different story. This dichotomy exists due to surface high pressure extending from southeastern Canada and New England westward to the Mid Missouri Valley. A notable weakness in thermal profiles will be present within this corridor. Low level trajectories on Monday show our air mass originating from central/eastern IA and northern MO on Sunday, which is from the surface high. A much more impressive low level air mass will exist over eastern MT and the Dakotas where trajectories are removed from the surface high's influence. Extreme Heat Watches are already in place there. 925 mb temps locally will range from +25C to +29C early next week, signaling highs in the low to mid 90s. In addition, moisture advection from the Gulf will be cut off due to the expansive surface high to our south, so all of the humidity will be locally produced via evapotranspiration. Instead of the mid to upper 70s dew points of a couple weeks ago, we'll likely be in the 65 to 70 degree range this time. So despite the record- breaking ridge overhead, the surface high to the south will likely spare us of a dangerous and historic heat wave, although it will still be hot and humid. Unless the humidity and/or temperatures trend warmer than what is currently predicted, we may be able to escape Extreme Heat Warnings with this event. Thunderstorm chances are nearly zero through Tuesday. Confidence drops off mid to late week as the ridge breaks down and cold fronts begin to advance into the northern U.S. again. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Generally VFR through the period, although some patchy MVFR mist is possible overnight at MKT/RNH/EAU. Winds will be light & variable overnight, eventually becoming more southerly tomorrow morning with speeds increasing to 5-10 kts. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. MON...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Borghoff AVIATION...ETA  727 FXUS64 KHGX 092330 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 630 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot conditions will continue today as daytime highs will be in the mid 90s with heat indices reaching the triple digits. - Lower chances of rain today. Isolated to scattered seabreeze showers and thunderstorms are possible closer to the coast. - Deep Gulf moisture will arrive Friday morning causing rain chances to increase Friday and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A drier airmass prevails today as shown by Water Vapor and the Blended Total Precip Water satellite imagery. Dry air (particularly inland) and mid-level stability are effectively capping most convective development this afternoon. However, cannot rule out isolated to scattered, sea breeze showers and storms mainly along and south of I-10 through early this evening. Heading into Friday, the pattern begins to shift. As the ridge of high pressure amplifies over the Rockies and Plains, a weak mid- level trough will track westward across the western Gulf, sliding along the southern TX coast. This setup will usher in a deep surge of tropical moisture across the region, with PW values in the 1.9- 2.1 inch range. This will result in widely scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend, with rain and storms developing along the coast late at night into the morning. Then spreading inland late morning through the afternoon. As Southeast TX sits on the southern periphery of the broad high pressure ridge, the region will remain vulnerable to shortwaves/vorticity maxes aloft tracking westward underneath the ridge. Therefore, expect a return to a more active, mostly diurnally-driven, convective period. This wet pattern will settle in for the weekend and persist through at least the first half of next week. Have PoPs around 40 to 70% through this period. Localized heavy downpours and strong gusty winds will be possible with any stronger storms. Temperatures will generally remain in the low to mid 90s during the day, and will be warm and muggy at night with overnight lows in the upper 70s to low 80s. Peak heat indices in the triple digits (100- 107F) can be expected each afternoon. A slight relief from the heat will be possible early next week as cloud cover and rain chances could potentially result in high temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s, which is a few degrees below normal for this time of year. JM && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Elevated and gusty winds due to lingering showers and thunderstorms should decrease by this evening. Winds remain light overnight, and pick back up tomorrow morning. Generally, winds are out of the S/SSE through the TAF period. A first round of showers/thunderstorms is expected to arrive near the coast tomorrow morning and gradually push inland, mainly effecting sites south of I-10. A second, and stronger, round of showers/thunderstorms is expected to arrive tomorrow afternoon and persist through the evening. This second round of storms looks to be more widespread, effecting most TAF sites; although, it is uncertain whether storms will push as far north as KCLL and KUTS. Gusty and erratic winds, along with reductions in VIS/CIG could accompany any afternoon storms that pop up. Convective activity should subside by late tomorrow evening. MLG && .MARINE... Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas will continue tonight, and persist well into the upcoming week. Seas will generally remain 1-3 ft. Winds and seas will occasionally increase/build Friday into the weekend, resulting in periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions. Rain and storm chances will be on the increase Friday into the weekend, with the best chances overnight through early afternoons. Elevated winds and seas will be possible near any stronger storms. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 77 95 78 95 / 10 30 10 30 Houston (IAH) 79 94 79 94 / 10 30 20 60 Galveston (GLS) 84 90 85 90 / 20 50 30 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...MLG MARINE...JM  967 FXUS61 KCAR 092333 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 733 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - 7:33PM UPDATE...a small area of thunderstorms developed across the Midcoast and has since weaken approaching Penobscot Bay. Continuing to monitor the trends of heavy showers and thunderstorms across the White Mountains of New Hampshire and Western Maine Mountains. These are running just south of a quasi-stationary boundary draped across our CWA. Expect these showers and storms to track east south of this boundary to impact mainly the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Confidence is low on how long the thunderstorms can survive past sunset but with shortwave energy pivoting east will keep the chances going through midnight. - 00Z TAF Update...see aviation section below. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Wildfire smoke might be able to mix down to the surface over the north Friday. 2) A chance of thunderstorms this afternoon/evening central/Downeast areas. Isolated thunderstorms central/Downeast areas Friday. 3) Temperatures increase early next week before the next system approaches mid week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Wildfire smoke might be able to mix down to the surface over the north Friday. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A cold front will cross the region Friday. Mixing in the wake of the cold front could allow smoke to reach the surface across northern areas. KEY MESSAGE 2...A chance of thunderstorms this afternoon/evening central/Downeast areas. Isolated thunderstorms central/Downeast areas Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... An initial cold front/pre-frontal trof will stall across central portions of the forecast area this afternoon. Scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible to the south of the stalled boundary, across central/Downeast portions of the forecast area this afternoon through early tonight. Low pressure will cross the region tonight into Friday, drawing the cold front southward. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are possible across central/Downeast portions of the forecast area Friday dependent on how rapidly the front moves south. KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures increase early next week before the next system approaches mid week. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... High pressure builds in behind the departing front this weekend, bringing seasonable temperatures and clear skies. A ridge begins to move into the area on Sunday, increasing temperatures for the first part of the week. Temperatures are expected to be about 5-10 degrees above average through mid week but with only modest humidity. The hottest day is currently expected to be Tuesday where temperatures may reach 90. Another trough approaches mid week which could bring some showers and thunderstorms starting in the north late Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 00z TAF UPDATE... Tonight...VFR/MVFR. Occasional IFR late. Variable conditions with any patchy fog overnight. Showers. Isolated/scattered thunderstorms through early morning. Light and variable winds. Friday...Variable conditions with any patchy fog early. Isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly across central/Downeast areas. Occasional IFR early. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR. Northwest/north winds 10 to 15 knots. Friday night...Variable conditions with any patchy fog late. Otherwise, VFR. Northwest/north winds 5 to 10 knots. Saturday...VFR. NW wind 5-10 kts, gusts to 20 kt. An afternoon sea breeze could produce S winds 5-10 kt at BHB. Saturday Night-Sunday...VFR. N-NW winds around 5kt. An afternoon sea breeze could produce S winds 5-10 kt at BHB. Sunday Night...VFR. Light and variable winds. Monday-Monday Night...VFR except possible MVFR in any showers/tstms at northern terminals late. SW winds 5 to 15 kts. Tuesday...VFR except for possible MVFR in any showers/tstms at northern terminals in the afternoon. W/SW winds 10 to 15 kts. && .MARINE... Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight through Friday night. Scattered/numerous showers tonight. Isolated/scattered thunderstorms through early morning. Scattered showers Friday. Patchy fog later tonight into Friday night. Winds and seas below small craft criteria Saturday through Monday. Marginal SCA winds and seas on the coastal and outer waters Monday night and on all waters Tuesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SM/CN/JS AVIATION...SM/CN/JS  902 FXUS65 KCYS 092332 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 532 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon with heavy rainfall, hail, and strong gusty winds possible. - Strong ridging aloft will produce a dry and hot period for Saturday through Thursday, with the primary challenges being the above normal heat and fire weather conditions. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1230 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Scattered rainfall and some thunderstorms are beginning to form across the region this afternoon. Similar to yesterday, expecting storms to continue forming across the high terrain and move eastwards through the afternoon and early evening into a more favorable environment for stronger activity. Profiles look similar to yesterday as well, with high based storms from inverted V soundings promoting strong winds and accumulating small hail to some smaller severe hail sizes possible. Meanwhile we'll see another risk of flooding today as PWAT values continue to sit in the 0.9-1.25 inch range, generally around 100-130% of average. With storms expected to train across the I-80 corridor, look for the highest risk of flooding from Cheyenne eastwards through Sidney. High resolution guidance consolidates this activity into clustered to linear activity as it moves eastwards into the Nebraska Panhandle, keeping high winds the primary threat into the late afternoon, with storms beginning to exit our portion of Nebraska during the beginning of the evening hours. Our severe threat should then diminish by the time the sun sets, though some lingering showers or storms may be possible through around midnight. Into Friday, our focus begins to shift towards heat as ridging starts building over the region. While the warmth won't begin to scorch us quite yet, high temperatures should rise around 1-5 degrees with highs in the 80's to 90's for the day. Some lingering moisture will keep our PWAT values around normal, and a weak trough and upslope flow may be able to take advantage of what's left of the moisture to produce an isolated shower or storm across the southern Laramie Range and along the border into Colorado, but activity should be weak and sporadic at best. By the evening, anything that is able to form will dissipate, the last grasp of notable moisture potential as heat and fire weather become the focal point into the long term. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 1230 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Saturday through Thursday...Primary challenges will be the heat and fire weather conditions. Ridging aloft dominates our region, with quite dry air at low and mid levels, accompanied by warm 700 mb temperatures, thus chances for late day showers and thunderstorms will be nearly nil and non existent, and dry weather will prevail. The 700 mb temperatures will yield maximum temperatures in the 90 to 105 degree range. A weak perturbation and a slight increase in mid level moisture may spark isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday, and moreso on Thursday, although the ridging aloft will likely keep it dry for the entire period. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 524 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A passing weather disturbance will produce isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms through early evening, with a ridge aloft producing nearly dry weather for Friday. Wyoming TAFS...High confidence in isolated showers and thunderstorms early this evening, with skies clearing thereafter. VFR prevails. Some gusty winds until sunset. Nebraska TAFS...High confidence in widely scattered thunderstorms through early evening and went with TEMPO groups through 02Z, with some storms producing wind gusts of 35 to 45 knots and brief MVFRconditions. Otherwise, VFR prevails with clearing skies later tonight. Gusty gradient winds until sunset. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CG LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...RUBIN  980 FXUS66 KSGX 092333 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 433 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A strong area of high pressure will continue to bring hot weather through Friday. Ever so slight cooling occurs by the weekend into Monday as high pressure moves to the northeast. The high pressure's movement will bring in greater monsoonal moisture for our area by Sunday into at least the latter part of next week. This will bring increased rain and thunderstorm chances to inland areas with greater humidity for the entire region. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)... The warming trend will continue today with high temperatures for Friday and Saturday a few degrees cooler. There will be widespread major HeatRisk for the lower deserts today with widespread moderate HeatRisk for other inland areas. High temperatures for today will be around average near the coast to 5 to 10 degrees above average for the mountains, deserts, and inland valleys. High temperatures for today will range from the 70s near the coast to the mid 90s to 104 for the Inland Empire with 113 to 117 for the lower deserts. Night and morning coastal low clouds will spread into the far western valleys at times into the weekend. && .LONG TERM (Sunday through Wednesday)... As the center of strong high pressure moves to the northeast, the flow across the area will become southeasterly allowing for an influx of monsoonal moisture for late Saturday into Sunday with growing spread by the middle of next week as to what degree that greater moisture persists. There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning on Sunday with the greater chances over the mountains and during the afternoon and early evening each day. There will be warming of low temperatures with low temperatures mostly 5 to 10 degrees above average by Wednesday and Thursday of next week. For Wednesday and Thursday of next week, there could be low temperatures for the coast and valleys mostly in the upper 60s to mid 70s and in the lower deserts in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Those warming low temperatures will result in higher HeatRisk for most areas with moderate or greater HeatRisk for most areas for Wednesday of next week except at higher elevations in the mountains and near the coast. There will be moderate to major HeatRisk for the lower deserts, the valleys, and inland Orange County. && .AVIATION... 092330Z....Coast...Areas of low clouds based around 1200-1500 feet MSL will push ashore after 03Z and cover all coastal areas overnight by around 09Z. Cigs will lower to 800-1000 feet overnight. Vis restricted 1-5SM over higher coastal terrain. Scatter out Friday 16- 18Z, but patchy low clouds to persist along immediate coast. Low clouds around 1000-1500 feet MSL to move ashore after 04Z Saturday. .Valleys/Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear and VFR conditions to continue through Friday evening. Onshore winds 25-30 kts through mountain passes and locally into deserts. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Wednesday. && .BEACHES... Astronomical high tides of 7.0-7.2 ft are forecast July 12-14. Higher than normal tides combined with a modest south swell (3 ft swell 14/15 seconds from 190 degrees) generating surf of 4-6 ft may result in areas of coastal flooding in low lying areas, boardwalks, beach parking lots, and beach adjacent streets during evening high tides. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Friday for Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for Coachella Valley- San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...APR AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM  020 FXUS64 KEWX 092334 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 634 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 626 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Hottest day of the week Thursday, and heat index values will continue topping out in the 100 to 105 degree range each day through early next week. - Ambient temperatures ease off Friday into next week as daily rain chances return. - Strong wind gusts and locally heavy downpours will be possible Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 143 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 One more "hotter" day is expected with temperatures a few ticks above normal for early to mid-July as weak mid-level ridging remains intact this afternoon. A plume of SAL dust is noted on satellite imagery, but it is a bit more subtle than recent SAL events. Nevertheless, this will locally enhance ambient air temperatures this afternoon, with highs in the mid to upper 90s to around 100 along the I-35 Corridor. Yesterday, ATT hit 100 for the first time this year, and SAT and AUS could do the same today. This plume of dust doesn't hang around long as a disturbance over the southwestern Gulf gets funneled northward into South Central Texas on Friday. Moist southeasterly flow from the surface to a bit over 700mb. Long, skinny forecast soundings along with PWATs climbing above 2" on Friday suggest tropical downpours are an increasingly good bet. Additional cloud cover will result in cooler temperatures Friday, but highs still climb into the lower 90s for most. Storms will develop along the middle Texas coast and move inland late Friday morning, bringing with them gusty winds and heavy tropical downpours. Coverage is expected to be isolated to scattered at best, but any relief from the afternoon heat will be welcome. A quick couple inches of rain is possible with any storms as motions will be slow. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 143 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The weekend will feature continued active weather for South Central Texas, with subtropical ridging sliding northward out of the western CONUS and into the Northern Plains states. As this ridge migrates north and eastward, it'll open the door for easterly low to mid- level flow over Texas and the southeastern US. With higher PWATs and continued southeasterly flow at the surface, daily rain and storm chances will occur Saturday through Wednesday, with Monday and Tuesday looking like the wettest days of the next week. An increasing concern for flooding rains develops on those two days as more concentrated coverage of storms and slow movement will prompt flooding concerns. Initially, any rainfall should soak into area soils as things have been dry for several weeks since our last widespread rains the 3rd week of June. However, runoff would probably follow soon after the first 1-2" of rainfall within any particular storm. By midweek, the NASA Dust AOT indicates a rather impressive plume of dust may work into South Central Texas on Wednesday, limiting rain chances Thursday and beyond. The GFS and ECMWF start to differ on their handling of the subtropical ridge over the Northern Plains and how it evolves by the middle of next week. This results in low confidence heading through the middle to end of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR cigs expected throughout the forecast period at all terminals. Expect gusty southerly winds of 20 to 25 knots to continue until 03/04Z for I-35 TAF sites. Winds should relax overnight before resuming again tomorrow afternoon from the south. Additionally, there are low chances of -RA/-TSRA after 18Z for KSAT and KSSF. However, due to the possibility of these being veryisolated in nature, have kept mention out of this forecast for now until confidence increases. For KAUS and KDRT no precip is expected for tomorrow with southerly winds once again ramping up with gusts in the 15-20 knot range by early afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 76 95 77 95 / 0 10 10 40 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 94 77 94 / 0 20 10 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 94 75 94 / 0 30 30 50 Burnet Muni Airport 73 93 74 93 / 0 10 10 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 76 95 76 95 / 0 0 20 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 75 95 76 94 / 0 10 10 30 Hondo Muni Airport 74 91 75 91 / 0 30 40 40 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 94 76 94 / 0 30 20 50 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 94 77 95 / 0 30 10 50 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 92 76 92 / 0 40 30 50 Stinson Muni Airport 76 92 76 92 / 0 40 30 50 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MMM LONG TERM....MMM AVIATION...CJM  029 FXUS65 KGJT 092335 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 535 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm activity will continue across northern portions of the area through early evening with gusty outflow winds and locally moderate to heavy rainfall rates possible. - Localized critical fire weather conditions favor mainly far southeast UT and southwest CO again tomorrow afternoon. - A prolonged and significant heat wave will be impacting much of eastern Utah and western Colorado through the weekend and lingering across the northern area through early next week. - Afternoon highs of 100 to 110 could produce near/record temperatures Sunday into Monday and with warm night time lows the threat of heat-related illnesses are possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 128 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The bottom line up front is a significant heat wave is coming to portions of western Colorado and eastern Utah this weekend into early next week. With this multi-day event...peaking Sunday and Monday...we upgraded to warnings across portions of eastern Utah into northern Colorado where the hottest temperatures are expected...with heat advisories on the periphery to the East. The southeast areas will still be very warm but less impactful and prolonged and were 17cancelled. Going forecasts have temperatures near or exceeding all time records across northern portions of the forecast area along with warmer night time temperatures giving minimal relief overnight. This heat is following the the dome of high pressure aloft as it ejects northward from the Desert Southwest and settles over the eastern Great Basin and northern High Plains from Sunday into the middle of next week. Ensemble clusters suggest mid level temperatures and return intervals will be the highest across the 4 Corners into northern portions of Utah and Colorado and where we are highlighting the biggest impacts. Daytime readings in the 100 to 110 range are forecast with the hottest temperatures over the lower Utah desert valleys including the National Park region. However all time record high temperatures are in jeopardy in places like Vernal (104) and Craig (101) if this heat pans out as trends over the past several days have suggested. All this heat is only being exacerbated by the persistent drought conditions and there is a probability some headlines may need to be extended into Tuesday up North. This heat is not good news for the ongoing wildfires and those on the ground fighting them. There continues to be localized area of critical fire weather conditions this afternoon into Friday across the South. Under these hot conditions and deeper mixing there are also likely to be some afternoon gusts through the weekend as well. Overall however winds should be decreasing under the as the ridge migrates through. Temperatures moderate slightly in the south by Monday as deeper moisture is drawn northward across the 4 Corners region. This is likely to mean more cloud cover and lead to a better chance of afternoon convection. The high slides farther into the Plains through mid week and sets on on the edge of the ring of fire. The better moisture looks to be rotating upstream through the western Great Basin but there appears to be enough moisture trapped in the easterly flow aloft lead to a daily thunderstorm threat. With the moisture saturating and recirculating the SubTrop high aloft this trend is likely to continue through week and hopefully bring some relief to the heat. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 527 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Gusty winds will come to a close as we approach the overnight period. Winds will then be generally light andterrain driven. Shower and storm activity will also begin to slow into the evening hours, but gusty outflow winds remain possible as these storms begin dying out this evening. Mid level clouds will continue to be around for tomorrow with gusty winds reaching some of the terminals tomorrow afternoon as well. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Extreme Heat Warning from noon Saturday to midnight MDT Monday night for COZ001-002-006-007. Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to midnight MDT Monday night for COZ008-011. Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to midnight MDT Sunday night for COZ020-021. UT...Extreme Heat Warning from noon Saturday to midnight MDT Monday night for UTZ024-027. Extreme Heat Warning from noon Saturday to midnight MDT Sunday night for UTZ022-029. && $$ DISCUSSION...TGJT AVIATION...TGJT  148 FXUS61 KPBZ 092337 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 737 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Flood Watch was expired for areas south of I-70, as heavy rain potential for this evening has decreased. Aviation discussion has been updated for the 00z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unsettled pattern continues through Saturday, with periodic showers and thunderstorms 2) Mainly dry and warm Sunday into next week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Most available guidance shows mainly isolated storm activity at best during the overnight period with the loss of heating and the departure of the shortwave. However,given potential lingering boundaries from daytime activity and the events of the past few nights, we cannot rule out a localized instance or two of heavy rainfall prior to sunrise Friday. The next shortwave will ride along the Ohio Valley through tonight and arrive in our region towards sunrise on Friday. Also, a surface boundary is forecast to drift into our region from the north. This should lead to greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms from midday into the evening hours. Another Flood Watch may be necessary, this time for a larger area, as PWATs and instability values will be similar to today. Increased flow aloft should result in a slightly faster storm motion, and with 0-6km shear of around 25 knots, there is slightly more potential for convective organization and strong to severe wind gusts. The boundary may stall at least briefly in the general vicinity of the Mason-Dixon Line Saturday afternoon and evening, with a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms. This may keep at least a localized threat for additional heavy rainfall totals and flooding in areas south of I-70. KEY MESSAGE 2... The boundary should get a push from a northeast CONUS shortwave Saturday night, allowing the front to clear the area and shift flow aloft to a northwesterly direction by Sunday. A period of dry weather is forecast from Sunday into early next week as surface high pressure takes control. Temperatures will be on the rise as well, as a strong ridge builds eastward from the central CONUS. At this time, heat levels are not expected to match those of last weekend, but max temps in the upper 80s to around 90 are possible come Tuesday/Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Convection wanes this evening as a passing shortwave exits to the east, though some hi-res guidance maintains isolated showers overnight with low confidence (and thus no mention) of impacts at area terminals. Another shortwave crosses the area on Friday which will support redevelopment of showers and storms, this time with a more widespread coverage that's primarily focused along a convergence axis with a southward moving boundary. Once again, any stronger storms will bring periodic restrictions in TSRA with heavy rain and gusty wind potential, especially during the 18z-00z timeframe. Outside of storms, VFR conditions and light winds will continue to prevail. Outlook... Ensembles suggest some potential for low ceilings and patchy fog settling into the area Friday night as near-surface moisture lingers following the Friday afternoon/evening round of thunderstorms. Rain chances continue into Saturday as a surface front becomes stationary near or south of a ZZV-MGW corridor. Generally dry weather and VFR should return Sunday and Monday as high pressure builds in. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CL/Milcarek AVIATION...Cermak/MLB  105 FXUS64 KBRO 092336 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 636 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 627 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Low (15-30%) chances of rain this afternoon and late tonight increase to a low to medium (30-60%) chance by tomorrow afternoon from possible rounds of showers and thunderstorms. - High moisture content could result in heavy rain into tomorrow and a few areas may receive up to an inch or more, most likely along/east of US-281/I-69 E. - Afternoon heat indices of around 100-105 F and minor heat risks (level 1 of 4) this afternoon warm and escalate to 105-110 F with a mostly moderate heat risk (level 2 of 4) tomorrow into the middle of next week. - A medium risk of rip currents continues through tomorrow afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 105 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The combination of weak troughing aloft over northeastern Mexico and an influx of deep and tropical moisture via southeasterly winds, gusting to 20-25 mph, bring the potential for several rounds of isolated to scattered, possibly numerous, showers and thunderstorms today into tomorrow. Due to the disorganized nature of convection from weak forcing, forecast confidence over the next 24-48 hours is medium at best and is likely to change. However, our latest forecast holds a low (15-30%) chance of rain along the seabreeze boundary moving from the Lower to Middle RGV throughout this afternoon and early evening hours from the initial onslaught of significantly enhanced moisture currently developing showers and thunderstorms just offshore. As PWAT values of 2.0+ in. spread to most of deep south Texas tonight through tomorrow night, a low to medium (20-40%) chance of rain late tonight along/east of I-69 E increases to a low to medium (30-60%) chance and expands westward to the I-69 C/US-281 corridor by tomorrow afternoon, with the higher chances over eastern portions of the Northern Ranchlands. Given such high moisture content, there exists the potential for heavy rain. By Saturday morning, we expect nearly half of locations along/east of US-281 to receive at least 0.20-0.30 of an inch of rain by Saturday morning, most concentrated across along/near the coast as well as portions of the Middle RGV, where we anticipate generally between a half inch to an inch of rainfall. Despite the potential for extended periods of cloud cover reducing diurnal instability just a bit, heavy rain developing or training could lead to isolated 1-3+ inches, most likely within the areas mentioned, especially late tonight into tomorrow afternoon when PWAT values could peak as high as 2.75 in. Global models are in agreement that the westward expansion of a high pressure aloft over the Gulf is likely to cut down on chances of rain on Saturday, with a low (15-30%) chance along the afternoon seabreeze across the Northern Ranchlands, decreasing to a 15-20% chance on Sunday and Monday afternoons. Yet, pulses of deep moist air streaming in off the Gulf could still result in more isolated pockets of heavy rain. Another area of weak upper level troughing could return a low chance (15-30%) of showers and thunderstorms along the afternoon seabreeze by the middle to later parts of next week. Increasing cloud cover holds high temperatures in the low/mid 90s today and tomorrow. Meanwhile, increasing moisture content warms and escalates afternoon heat indices from around 100-105 F with a minor heat risk today to near 105-110 F with mainly or all moderate heat risks tomorrow into next Tuesday. Following, drier air and increasing cloud cover may result in minor to moderate heat risks as afternoon indices peak close to 100-110 F. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at627 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR should prevail, but may be intermittently plagued with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the TAF cycle. Gusty southeasterly winds diminish overnight, increasing again late Friday morning with gusts to 25 kts. Abundant moisture may lower ceilings to MVFR levels ahead of sunrise Friday. Showers currently over the area are diminishing. An isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out between now and 06Z, but maintained VFR prevailing for the near term. Rain chances are non- zero past 06Z and increase late morning through the end of the cycle. Due to uncertainty in coverage, maintained PROB30s during the day Friday. Any showers or storms that pass over an airfield can bring heavy rain reducing visibility, low ceilings, gusty winds, and lightning. && .MARINE... Issued at 105 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds and slight to moderate (2-5 ft) seas continue through the next 7 days along with potential brief periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines. Chances of rain incise to as much as a low to medium (20-50%) tonight through tomorrow afternoon as rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue. Low (15-30%) chances of rain follow tomorrow night into next Monday and may return by the middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 78 92 81 94 / 40 50 10 10 HARLINGEN 75 93 78 95 / 30 60 10 20 MCALLEN 78 96 81 98 / 10 50 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 76 96 79 99 / 10 50 10 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 87 82 88 / 50 50 20 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 90 80 92 / 40 50 20 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...65 LONG TERM....65 AVIATION...69-HK  265 FXUS61 KILN 092339 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 739 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Flood watch for the south through Saturday evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms late tonight. Locally heavy rainfall is possible south of I-70. 2) A low pressure system will track across the Ohio Valley Saturday into Saturday night offering the potential for heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding. 3) Drier and warmer conditions for next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Showers and a few lingering thunderstorms across the eastern counties associated with an embedded shortwave will diminish late this aftn as the system shifts off to the east. A convective system will come track from Illinois this evening and approach the region overnight in a weakening state. Some uncertainty continues regarding exact timing and placement with ILN/s southern counties in the most favorable place for heavy rain with PWATs expected to be at 2 inches or above. With the potential for heavy rain and flooding, have issued a flood watch beginning tonight across the south. Convective activity shifts east by mid morning with some decrease in coverage but additional scattered convection will likely redevelop during the afternoon in the moderately unstable airmass. KEY MESSAGE 2) Mid level short wave over the Mid Mississippi Valley early Saturday will track slowly east-southeast Saturday and Saturday night. An associated surface low will track across southern Indiana into central Kentucky. Showers and storms will ahead of the low with a more focused axis of coverage across ILN/s southern counties. Heavy rain and the potential for flooding will continue across the south with some drying from north to south Saturday night. The flood watch continues into Saturday night for portions of Southeast Indiana, Southern Ohio, and Northern Kentucky. KEY MESSAGE 3) Large mid level ridge of high pressure that develops over the Northern and Central Plains will extend eastward into the region. This will result in dry weather for early to mid week. In addition, temperatures will trend upwards with readings likely getting into the lower 90s for the period Tuesday thru Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Several hi-res models try to push in a complex of storms overnight from the west, becoming less organized as it approaches the Indiana/Ohio border. Confidence decreases in storm potential for our northern terminals, whereas KCVG/KLUK have better chances for storms to roll through. For any terminal, multiple rounds of showers/storms certainly possible during the overnight and morning time period, again with higher confidence in this occurring near KCVG/KLUK. Guidance containing to show MVFR CIGs for our southern terminals during the early to late morning hours Friday. CIGs likely remain VFR for the northern terminals. Cold front to the NW will slowly try to sink southward Friday, keeping storm chances in the forecast the entire period. Did try to time out when storm coverage may increase in our northern terminals as the frontal boundary begins to encroach. Included another PROB30 group at the end of the taf period for this, but be mindful that storm chances are likely to continue beyond 00z Saturday with the slow moving front. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible through Saturday night. MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities possible late Friday night into Saturday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for OHZ073-074-078>082-088. KY...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for KYZ089>100. IN...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for INZ075-080. && $$ DISCUSSION...AR AVIATION...Clark  322 FXUS63 KARX 092341 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 641 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon with lightning and locally heavy rain being the primary hazards. - Fog is forecast to develop on Friday morning causing lower visibility and potentially hazardous driving conditions. - Warmer and drier conditions are forecast next week with heat index values in the lower to mid 90s which may result in some heat related issues for those that are outdoors. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 103 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Rest of Today: Low Chance for Isolated Storms Through Early This Evening West to northwest flow is forecast to prevail over the upper Midwest the rest of the day. This flow will begin to usher in somewhat drier air in the mid levels which should clear out some of the cloud cover that is being observed early this afternoon. Even with the drier air moving in, just enough H700 theta-e may remain in place across portions of the CWA for a few isolated storms to form this afternoon. Even though synoptic forcing is very weak, afternoon highs approaching convective temperatures along with forecast CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg may be enough to generate a few storms. Given weak shear values, any storms that are able to form will likely struggle to maintain any cores, so the severe storm threat for today is very, very low. The lack of storm motion combined with long CAPE profiles suggests that these storms may be efficient rain producers. The storm threat should start decreasing this evening as daytime heating ends across the region. Friday into Next Week: Fog Friday Morning, Drier and Warmer Conditions This Weekend into Next Week The aforementioned dry mid level air will lead to mostly clear skies tonight into Friday morning. The combination of the light wind, clear skies, and high surface moisture will likely lead to at least patchy fog across much of the area to start the day on Friday. The latest 09/12z HREF shows a wide swath of at least 30-40 percent chance for visibility of 1 mile or less early tomorrow morning with pockets of 60-70 percent chances for 1 mile or less visibility east of the Mississippi River. In addition, river valley fog cannot be ruled out as well, which may lead to dense fog for some locations. For those out traveling tomorrow morning, be prepared for changing visibility. Upper level ridging will almost certainly set up across the central CONUS beginning on Friday and lasting well into the next work week. Thankfully for MN, IA, and WI, the center axis of the ridging pattern is forecast to remain to the west over the Northern Plains into south central Canada. With the axis to the west, the hottest conditions should also stay west of the FA during this time frame. Even with that being said, high temperatures are expected to be above average for mid July from late this weekend into the middle of next week. Afternoon heat index values could be in the low to mid 90s during the first half of next work week which may lead to some heat related issues for those that are outdoors for extended periods of time. The upper level high sitting over the region should suppress most chances for rainfall during this same time frame. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Isolated showers and storms will continue over the next few hours in northeast Iowa and along and south of I-90 in Wisconsin. Light and variable winds for the TAF period. Predominantly VFR conditions expected with the exception of the overnight period which could see some fog develop as we will have the light winds and clearing skies. If trends continue then may need to add lowered visibilitiesat KLSE and KRST. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Muscha AVIATION...Cecava  325 FXUS63 KICT 092341 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 641 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms are possible late tonight into early Friday morning, mainly along and west of I-135. Main concerns are wind gusts up to 65 mph and up to quarter size hail. - Additional periodic storm chances Friday afternoon through Sunday morning. A few strong storms are possible. - Dry and seasonably warm conditions forecast for next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... As of early this afternoon, modest zonal to northwest flow continues over the central plains with a subtle shortwave trough exiting eastward across Iowa and Missouri, and another progressing eastward over the central Rockies. Subtle mid-level WAA behind the former feature has lead to isolated showers throughout the day across mainly far southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Meanwhile, the latter feature will support a complex of storms moving through the forecast area late tonight into early Friday morning. It feels as through we've repeated the same thing for the 30th time this summer: strong to severe storms are possible late tonight into the overnight hours. The arrival of the shortwave trough across the Rockies will trigger widespread thunderstorm development across the High Plains late this afternoon. These storms will congeal into a complex/loosely organized squall line and push eastward across Kansas late tonight into early Friday morning. Short range guidance this morning is in good agreement that these storms will track down an axis of instability draped across Kansas; however, this instability will decrease with eastward extent leading to some uncertainty in the intensity of these storms as they enter into the forecast area. Most likely, severe storms will be limited to locations west of I-135, but an occasional severe wind gust is possible as far east as the Flint Hills. Given the amount of CIN that will build across the area overnight along with marginal low-level shear, a brief QLCS tornado appears unlikely, but any storms associated with organized cold pools may be able to produce localized wind gusts up around 55-65 mph despite the low-level inhibition. There's also an outside chance for up to quarter size hail, but given the messy/linear storm mode, most will see small hail, if any at all. As storms move east of the I-135, the intensity of these storms should decrease, but chances for festering, sub-severe showers and storms will continue through much of Friday morning. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... The residual outflow boundary from Friday morning's storms is forecast to be laid out west-to-east across southern Kansas or northern Oklahoma by Friday afternoon. Widely scattered diurnally driven storms are forecast to develop along this boundary. While shear would support organized storms, there's some questions about how much the atmosphere will destabilize during the day on Friday. That being said, any storms that do develop will likely be strong to marginally severe with up to 60 mph wind gusts and up to quarter size hail possible. Additionally, another round of storms will develop across the High Plains and progress eastward across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma late Friday night into Saturday morning. By the time this complex of storms gets into the forecast area overnight Friday night, it's likely they will be sub-severe, but trends will need to be monitored over the next day or so. Additional storms are possible across far southern and southeast Kansas Saturday through early Sunday morning. Again, some of these storms could be strong, but limited shear and instability should put a fairly low ceiling on the intensity of this activity. SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK... As we head into next week, mid to long-range guidance continues to remain in agreement that a strong mid/upper ridge will build over the northern plains. With the center of this ridge forecast to be so far north, it currently appears as through the region will avoid the worst of the heat through midweek. There's still time for some changes, but as guidance has been very consistent on this for awhile now, confidence is fairly high that temperatures will be near average to start off next week. Also, the pattern change is likely to cutoff rain chances for much of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 637 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Storms are expected to develop over western Kansas then spread eastward towards central/south central Kansas after midnight. The activity will then begin to diminish before daybreak. Winds will remain light out of the east then switch to the southeast Friday morning. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...CDJ  284 FXUS63 KILX 092340 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 640 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances will be highest late this afternoon into early evening, then again Friday night. A few of the storms will be on the strong side, but the main threat of that will be south of I-72. - Locally heavy rain will result in the potential for areas of flooding, with the focus shifting more into areas south of I-72 by Friday night. - Temperatures remain typical for July. While a warming trend takes place next week, humidity levels will make it feel less oppressive than last week's heat wave. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 116 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Short Term (through Saturday): Prominent MCV from the decaying convection across Missouri is about to cross the Mississippi River south of Pittsfield. Despite a fair amount of cirrus blowoff, MLCAPE's of 1000-1500 J/kg have allowed scattered storms to develop over the last hour across eastern Illinois. Recent Day1 convective outlook shifted the risk areas a little further south and are mainly concentrated south of I-72. Greatest downdraft CAPE is expected preceding the anticipated convection across central Illinois, though there remains some uncertainty with the extent of strong/severe storms. In general, much of the shower/storm activity is expected through sunset. While development of another MCS across Missouri is expected this evening, most of the high-res guidance keeps this to our southwest. A front across Iowa and southern Wisconsin is expected to only slowly drift southward the next couple days. Additional convective complexes are expected to ride along the boundary Friday night, and highest rain chances remain over the south half of the forecast area during this time. East-west upper troughing will set up during the weekend, keeping the frontal movement on the slow side. However, by late Saturday night, it should finally be near the Ohio River, ending the rain threat. Long Term (Sunday through Thursday): Little change in the forecast for next week. A sprawling upper high will dominate a large portion of the CONUS to start the week, before the ridging amplifies near the Plains by midweek. This pattern will result in seasonably warm temperatures near 90 degrees in our area, though with the Gulf cut off, humidity levels should not get as rough as last week's heat wave. Still, heat index levels of 95-100 degrees are likely Tuesday-Thursday. As the upper ridge establishes itself, we'll be on the periphery of a northwest flow, which can be favorable for MCS activity. Right now, that activity looks to be more across the Great Lakes region, so a dry forecast will be maintained in the extended period. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected this evening. Only sites that might get storms are PIA and BMI due to an outflow boundary moving over both sites, so kept a PROB30 for a couple of hours. Models continue to advertise MVFR clouds and possible IFR clouds advecting into the area overnight, but only putting it in for BMI, SPI, DEC, and CMI but not PIA. Conditions improve during the morning hours with scattered to broken cu clouds until afternoon. Then this dissipates and mid clouds advect into the area ahead of the next chance of showers and storms. Since timing is unknown, have left any prob30 groups out of TAFs at this time...but will likely have to be added. Winds will be light and variable through the period. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Geelhart DISCUSSION...Geelhart AVIATION...Auten  273 FXUS63 KMQT 092340 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 740 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Benign, sunny weather continues through Friday with highs near seasonal norms. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday, but no severe weather is expected. - A warming trend is forecast as high temperatures increase daily through early next week. Highs near or above 90 are becoming more likely from Sunday through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 349 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 GOES visible satellite reveals mostly clear skies across Upper Michigan this afternoon, save for some pesky low stratus and fog hanging on over parts of Lake Superior and some fairweather cumulus popping up over the higher terrain of the western UP. RAP analysis shows surface high pressure beginning to build in over Lake Superior as it extends southward from Hudson Bay and northern Ontario. This will promote dry and pleasant summer conditions through Friday as high temperatures increase into the upper 70s to mid 80s across the area for Friday afternoon. Will likely see some patchy fog develop again tonight, especially in the vicinity of Lake Superior, but do not expect coverage to be as extensive as last night as the lower levels of the atmosphere trend a bit drier. Temperatures continue to gradually increase through the weekend as expansive upper level ridging builds from the Intermountain West into the central CONUS, sending highs solidly into the 80s across the UP on Saturday afternoon and pushing 90 degrees for at least the interior areas by Sunday. Will retain a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday as a few weak disturbances transit the periphery of the upper ridge this weekend, but with MUCAPE only around 500 J/kg and relatively meager shear would not anticipate any strong to severe thunderstorms. Heat remains the primary forecast concern early next week as 500 mb heights rise above 590 dam, near or above the climatological max for mid July per multiple ensemble suites, while 850 mb temps climb to 25-27 C or higher. This will likely result in widespread readings in the 90s across the UP for Monday and Tuesday, with the NBM depicting a greater than 75% chance to exceed 90 away from the immediate shorelines and even the often low-biased LREF showing a 60-75% chance in these locations. Humidity will not be as high as in the late June heat wave as low level trajectories will have more of a westerly component, but dewpoints into the 60s will still support potential 100 degree heat indexes in some interior locations per the NBM. This coupled with high overnight low temps in the 60s to perhaps even 70 degrees will correspond to a major HeatRisk across much of the UP for Monday and Tuesday. There remains uncertainty as to the duration of the heat later into the week as medium range guidance continues to hint at a strong upper trough flattening out the ridge as it moves into the vicinity of Hudson Bay Tuesday into Wednesday of next week, increasing shower and thunderstorm chances again across the area as we head into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 740 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions and light winds will prevail this evening. Late tonight, as the low levels cool under mainly clear skies and light winds, expect fog to develop across much of the central and eastern U.P. The most confidence in fog impacting the terminals is at CMX and SAW. Likely conditions will fall to IFR but could not rule out LIFR should dense fog develop (40% chance). Once the fog mixes out during the morning hours VFR conditions will return along with continued light winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 349 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Surface high pressure building over the lake from the north will maintain light winds of 15 kt or less into the weekend. Patches of dense fog will likely linger over parts of the lake, especially the eastern half, through at least Friday morning. There is some indication that the pressure gradient will tighten across the lake early next week as string high pressure resides over the Lower Great Lakes while a strong low approaches from the northwest. This will likely result in 25-30 kt southwesterly winds over the western half of the lake during the first half of next week, with the NBM showing a 15-25% chance for a few gale force gusts Monday into Tuesday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for LSZ248-250-251- 265>267. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CB AVIATION...NL MARINE...CB  599 FXUS63 KGRB 092345 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 645 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy to areas of ground fog are forecast to develop late tonight into Friday morning, which may result in localized travel impacts due to reduced visibilities. - Building heat and humidity early next week will bring a period of minor heat-related impacts, with heat index values forecast to rise into the middle to upper 90s on Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 116 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A weak surface cold front is currently draped across central and east-central Wisconsin early this afternoon, acting as the primary focus for scattered convective activity across the region. North of this boundary, high pressure and a much drier airmass are already filtering into northern Wisconsin. Looking at the broader synoptic setup, water vapor imagery reveals an intensifying mid- level ridge centered over the western United States. This ridge is forecast to amplify and expand northeastward toward the western Great Lakes over the weekend and into the early part of next week, becoming the main feature to impact the weather across north- central and northeast Wisconsin for the remainder of the forecast period. The near-term forecast through this evening centers on the scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity along the slow moving front. The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show the boundary stretching from near Wisconsin Rapids to Appleton and Kewaunee. Despite widespread cloud cover, a reservoir of boundary layer moisture and surface temperatures in the middle to upper 70s are generating mixed-layer CAPE values in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. This environment will continue to spark scattered showers and isolated storms through the late afternoon before the front fully sags south of the area. Given weak forcing, severe weather is not anticipated; however, high precipitable water values will allow any storm to produce heavy downpours and lightning. Most of the shower activity will quickly come to an end early this evening with the loss of diurnal heating. As the frontal boundary pushes south, focus turns toward fog potential late tonight. Drier air settling behind the front will mix out dewpoints into the 50s across far northern Wisconsin, thereby lowering the risk for dense fog. However, surface dewpoints will be slow to mix out across central and east-central Wisconsin this afternoon. Clearing skies and light winds under the building surface ridge will create optimal radiational cooling conditions, favoring the development of ground fog late tonight. The highest probability for dense fog resides across central Wisconsin, though east- central locations will likely see patchy fog as well. Any ground fog will burn off relatively early between 8 AM and 9 AM Friday, giving way to a fair-weather cumulus field by late morning. Friday afternoon will feature pleasant summer conditions across the region with highs in the low to mid 80s and comfortable humidity levels. For the extended period, the weather story is dominated by the arrival of the upper-level ridge and a subsequent warming trend. As the ridge builds closer over the weekend, a weak boundary is forecast to sag into northern Wisconsin, bringing a low 20 to 30 percent chance for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms on both Saturday and Sunday. By Monday and Tuesday, very warm temperatures aloft, with 700 mb temperatures climbing to 13C to 14C, will establish a strong capping inversion that will shut down precipitation chances. Projections of 925 mb and 850 mb temperatures support surface high temperatures expanding into the lower to middle 90s on both Monday and Tuesday. The NBM initialization shows dewpoints in the middle to upper 60s during this timeframe, which looks to be on the lower side of guidance. Bumped dewpoints up slight based on non-bias corrected data. This will yield widespread heat indices in the middle to upper 90s, bringing a threat for minor heat- related illnesses. A pattern shift toward the middle to end of next week is expected to break down the ridge and bring cooler relief. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR daytime cumulus clouds and other MVFR/VFR clouds associated with a weak cold front will slowly fade / shift south through the late afternoon and early evening hours, with mainly only a few high clouds remaining across the region into tonight. A stray shower can't be ruled out south of Hwy 29 before sunset as the front drifts to our south, but the dry air looks to be winning out, so most spots will stay dry. A favorable set up for fog overnight as skies clear this evening, winds remain light, and recent rain will provide some moisture near the surface. The most favored area for ground fog will be across central WI and parts of the Fox Valley where dewpoints will struggle to mix out this afternoon/evening. LAV/MET/MAV hitting AUW/CWA the hardest, with SREF/HREF/REFS also highlighting this area across central WI. VLIFR/LIFR/IFR flight conditions will be possible in the ground fog from ~08-14Z Fri. On Friday, look for any fog to lift in the morning hours, with daytime fair weather cumulus clouds developing in the late morning and afternoon. Another batch of high clouds will also spread across parts of the region. A stray shower will be possible, mainly in the afternoon, but coverage looks to be under 15% so will not include any mention. Winds will generally remain under 10 kts, with a few higher gusts possible closer to Lake Michigan. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....MPC AVIATION.......Bersch  506 FXUS63 KLOT 092344 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 644 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A threat for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms through this evening. - Mainly dry and increasingly warm weather this weekend onward, though it will be cooler lakeside until later next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 This Afternoon: A weak remnant MCV (mesoscale convective vortex) has slowly pushed across the area through early this afternoon. It appears that the timing of the disturbance was early enough to curtail stronger destabilization from a combination of thicker cloud cover and already marginal mid-level lapse rates of <6C/km. Forcing on the backside of the MCV, subtle confluence, and a bit better destabilization south of I-80 recently enabled an uptick in coverage of smaller footprint pulse type convection. As the forcing from the MCV pushes farther east, a somewhat subsident regime may result in the current activity struggling for a bit. Farther north, the aforementioned more subsident regime as well as meager low-level convergence from close to due westerly boundary winds will probably keep convective coverage at a minimum for a few hours. Late Today through Tonight: Based on upstream radar presentation as of this writing, a weak approaching cold front should provide enough lift for a modest uptick in showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Winds shifting onshore near the lake from an early evening lake breeze could plausibly provide modestly a modestly enhanced focus. However, the weakly forced, weak deep layer shear, and modest mid-level lapse rate environment does not appear that it will be conducive to much in the way of storm organization. Earlier concerns of localized flash flooding appear to be trending downward even if a few storms materialize into this evening, as they will likely continue to be smaller footprint and pulse-type (shorter-lived). Favorable moisture parameters and high freezing levels would thus be offset by limited areal coverage and duration of any heavy rainfall. If a more focused corridor of showers and embedded storms does not materialize by this evening, with a likely diurnal component to the activity, the flood threat for the rest of the night should be limited. Overnight into early Friday as the cold front sags south, light winds and low dew point spreads may support fog development and localized visibility below 1 mile. Maintained areas of fog mention closer to the lake in northeast Illinois and far northwest Indiana, though confidence isn't all that high. Friday Onward: The sagging front will force the instability axis southward Friday and Saturday, and with it the threat for any showers and storms. Have confined chance PoPs to near and south of the Kankakee River Friday afternoon and evening and then primarily south of US-24 on Saturday afternoon (which may be too generous). For the rest of the area, a couple pleasant days with more comfortable humidity levels, and seasonably warm temperatures in the lower to mid 80s are in store. Synoptic onshore flow from surface high pressure settling over the Great Lakes will keep highs near the lake in the mid 70s to around 80F. For Sunday into early to mid next workweek, an expansive and anomalously strong/warm mid-level ridge will establish itself from the central and northern Plains to the Midwest. Increasingly warm 850 to 925 mb temps underneath the influence of the ridge will result in a warming trend away from the lake. Meanwhile, the surface high pressure will remain in place until midweek or thereabouts, resulting in daily lake breezes and associated lake cooling. In addition, dew points and thus humidity levels will be held in check vs. our previous very warm to hot stretch. The ridge may become sufficiently flattened sometime later next week for a return of convective chances. Until then, a several day stretch of continued drying will help river and streams to return back to more typical flows. Castro && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Forecast concerns include... Chance of thunderstorms through late this evening. Wind shift to northeast this evening. Low mvfr, possible ifr, cigs/vis overnight/early Friday morning. A cold front will move across northern IL this evening, shifting winds to the northeast, with west/southwest winds ahead of the front. Once winds shift to the northeast, they are expected to remain northeast for the rest of the period, possibly increasing into the 10-15kt range Friday afternoon. Showers and scattered thunderstorms have developed along this front and are expected to slowly increase in coverage as they move southeast across the terminals this evening, though overall coverage remains uncertain. Have maintained prob thunder mention and adjusted timing later based on current guidance trends but additional refinement may be needed this evening. Showers may lingering into the early overnight hours. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon, but should remain south of the terminals. With the frontal boundary nearby and moist low levels, fog will be possible overnight into early Friday morning, especially west of the Chicago terminals across northwest IL. Low mvfr cigs and possibly ifr cigs will also be possible. Overall confidence is only medium for fog/low cloud trends and only tweaked timing, though added ifr cigs for RFD. Trends will need to be monitored overnight. Whatever fog does form should dissipate quickly after sunrise and cigs will slowly lift through mvfr and into low vfr by early Friday afternoon. cms && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  441 FXUS64 KLCH 092344 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 644 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower activity is expected to decrease today and tomorrow as an upper level ridge briefly builds back in. - A weakness redeveloping over the weekend, along with deeper tropical like moisture and a weak surface boundary, will help to increase convection Saturday into next week. - Typical summertime heat can be expected with afternoon max apparent temperatures between 100 and 105 degrees daily with the heat risk at moderate level (2 out of 4.) && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Another seasonal start to the day has unfolded with a few isolated showers and storms ongoing across coastal south LA. Surface high pressure is again providing a light and variable flow overhead, while aloft weak ridging is slowly taking shape as two ridges merge overhead. As ridging takes shape overhead today it will keep somewhat of a cap on afternoon convection but won't completely inhibit storms from forming along the seabreeze this afternoon. Therefore, we will likely see some slight expansion on coverage of what's already ongoing but widespread activity is unlikely today. Otherwise, it looks like another hot and humid afternoon with highs reaching into the low to mid 90s. Weak ridging becomes better established overhead by tomorrow, bringing about another mostly dry and hot day for the end of the work week. Like today, morning showers along the coast can be expected, with minimal expansion in coverage along the seabreeze through peak heating hours in the afternoon. Moving into the weekend, upper ridging begins to lose its hold on the forecast area once again as the center of the ridge shifts off towards the Rockies. At the same time, a weak shortwave dives out of the northern Plains and into the Midwest giving a weak frontal boundary a push south across the eastern CONUS. This, together with the seabreeze/diurnal heating, will result in more widespread afternoon activity each day from Saturday into early next week. The addition of the approaching front will cause POPs to ramp up even further from Sun through Tues as it provides additional support for convection, with POPs then tapering back down slightly for the later half of the week. The increase in convection early next week will tamper afternoon high temps down into the mid to upper 80s on Mon and Tues, which is around 5 degrees below seasonal norms. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 638 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Isolated showers and storms continue to taper out this late afternoon, with VFR conditions expected for the rest of this TAF cycle outside of the small possibility of widely isolated showers tomorrow afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Surface high pressure will remain stretched from the Atlantic into the northern Gulf through the week. This will keep a light south to southwest flow and low seas in place. Isolated to widely scattered shower and storms will be possible each day, with coverage increasing a bit by the late weekend into early next week as another weakness develops aloft. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 No fire weather concerns at this time. Isolated to widely scattered storms are expected today along the sea breeze, however coverage will decrease Thursday and Friday as an upper ridge builds in. Higher rain chances return this weekend into early next week. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17 AVIATION...87  436 FXUS65 KTFX 092343 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 543 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Turning drier and much warmer through the weekend, with some record heat possible over the weekend. - Breezy conditions Saturday may result in some elevated fire conditions, most notably across Southwest Montana - Not as hot next week, but still warm through next week. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 1252 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: Upper level ridging will bring the warmest temperatures of the year thus far to Southwest through North Central Montana this weekend and into the day on Monday, with overall dry conditions expected through the timeframe. Friday will be the transition day as upper level riding amplifies over the Central Rockies and Northern High Plains, with temperatures warming into the 80s to low 90s. Enough moisture streaming northeast within the upstream side of the amplifying ridge will help to support isolated showers and storms across the Northern Rockies on Friday, initially across Southwest Montana during the afternoon hours before spreading north to Central and North Central Montana during the evening hours. High temperatures warm further into the 90s to low 100s over the weekend and into Monday, with breezy south to west winds developing each day during the afternoon hours, especially across Southwest Montana and along the Rocky Mountain Front. - Moldan Upper level flow will shift to more westerly on Monday, which will allow temperatures to lower a bit from the weekend highs, but most areas will still be quite warm with temperatures well into the 80s to low 90s. With this upper level flow pattern, expect generally dry conditions with just a few showers and thunderstorms to pop up in the afternoon. A passing upper level trough may bring some more widespread showers and storms on Wednesday, though timing of the trough passage will ultimately determine just how widespread and intense the storms will be. - Ludwig - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Hot Temperatures this Weekend... Climate anomaly indicators continue to support the potential for an unusual to very unusual period of hot temperatures, with respect to early to mid-July climatology, across the Northern Rockies; especially along and east of a Lewistown, to Helena, to Chief Joseph Pass line where EFIs are in excess of 0.6. This is not to say that areas north and west of this line will not also see hot temperatures, but with respect to July climatology readings will not be as anomalous. The tables below depict Low End (NBM5.0 10th Percentiles), Most Likely (50th Percentiles), and High End (NBM5.0 90th Percentiles) scenarios with respect to high and low temperatures over the weekend; with larger spreads between the three scenarios suggesting greater uncertainty due to a combination of cloud cover/wind speeds and directions/latent heat release while smaller spreads suggest greater certainty. ********************************************************************* Saturday's High Temperature Scenarios LOCATION Low End | Most Likely | High End Browning 81 | 84 | 89 Cut Bank 87 | 91 | 95 Havre 94 | 100 | 104 Great Falls 94 | 99 | 103 Lewistown 92 | 96 | 99 Helena 93 | 98 | 101 White Sulphur Springs 92 | 94 | 97 Bozeman 95 | 97 | 99 Dillon 91 | 95 | 97 Ennis 92 | 95 | 97 West Yellowstone 83 | 89| 91 Sat. Night's Low Temperature Scenarios LOCATION Low End | Most Likely | High End Browning 53 | 57 | 61 Cut Bank 53 | 57 | 64 Havre 57 | 60 | 65 Great Falls 56 | 61 | 66 Lewistown 54 | 57 | 61 Helena 57 | 64 | 67 White Sulphur Springs 52 | 56 | 59 Bozeman 56 | 61 | 64 Dillon 54 | 58 | 61 Ennis 56 | 59 | 62 West Yellowstone 46 | 51 | 56 ********************************************************************* Sunday's High Temperature Scenarios LOCATION Low End | Most Likely | High End Browning 79 | 87 | 93 Cut Bank 86 | 93 | 99 Havre 95 | 101 | 109 Great Falls 94 | 100 | 107 Lewistown 94 | 100 | 106 Helena 94 | 99 | 106 White Sulphur Springs 93 | 98 | 102 Bozeman 96 | 101 | 104 Dillon 92 | 97 | 101 Ennis 96 | 100 | 102 West Yellowstone 90 | 94 | 96 Sun. Night's Low Temperature Scenarios LOCATION Low End | Most Likely | High End Browning 52 | 59 | 65 Cut Bank 53 | 61 | 68 Havre 57 | 63 | 69 Great Falls 59 | 64 | 70 Lewistown 55 | 58 | 65 Helena 61 | 67 | 72 White Sulphur Springs 54 | 57 | 63 Bozeman 57 | 61 | 66 Dillon 57 | 61 | 64 Ennis 57 | 60 | 64 West Yellowstone 49 | 55 | 60 ********************************************************************* Monday's High Temperature Scenarios LOCATION Low End | Most Likely | High End Browning 79 | 86 | 91 Cut Bank 82 | 91 | 96 Havre 86 | 96 | 103 Great Falls 88 | 97 | 101 Lewistown 85 | 93 | 98 Helena 89 | 95 | 100 White Sulphur Springs 88 | 94 | 97 Bozeman 90 | 96 | 101 Dillon 88 | 93 | 97 Ennis 89 | 95 | 99 West Yellowstone 87 | 92 | 96 ********************************************************************* At this time these scenarios continue to suggest that while daytime temperatures will be hot across most areas, especially on Sunday, temperatures will cool sufficiently enough during the overnight hours to provide some relief from the Extreme Heat that will be seen further east over Eastern Montana. This relief offsets the need for Extreme Heat Warnings; however, with overnight lows only dipping into the 60 to 70 degree range across most of the plains and valleys of North Central through Southwest Montana, which is 10 to 15 degrees warmer than climatology, the window for relief will be quite limited. For this reason a Heat Advisory was deemed the most appropriate at this time, but should high and/or low temperatures trend warmer over thenext several day then upgrades to Extreme Heat Warnings may be need for some areas. - Moldan && .AVIATION... 10/00Z TAF Period Prevailing VFR conditions through the period with a slight chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms over Southwest MT after 10/21Z with some gusty winds expected for KCTB and KHVR for Friday as well. Hot temperatures through the weekend will result in high density and pressure altitudes impacting aircraft performance especially at higher altitude airfields such as KWYS and KEKS. - Akins && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 55 94 59 98 / 0 0 20 0 CTB 55 87 58 90 / 0 0 20 20 HLN 56 91 60 97 / 0 10 20 0 BZN 53 90 57 99 / 0 10 20 10 WYS 45 86 47 91 / 20 0 0 0 DLN 51 88 54 96 / 0 10 20 0 HVR 56 93 59 99 / 0 0 10 0 LWT 52 89 55 96 / 0 0 20 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 9 PM MDT Monday for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Canyon Ferry Area-Cascade County below 5000ft-Eastern Pondera and Eastern Teton-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Fergus County below 4500ft-Gallatin Valley- Gates of the Mountains-Helena Valley-Hill County-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Madison River Valley-Missouri Headwaters- Northern Blaine County-Southern High Plains-Western and Central Chouteau County. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  788 FXUS61 KRLX 092347 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 747 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update. A Flood Watch for flash flooding has been issued for much of the forecast area until 8 AM Sunday morning given rounds of showers and storms throughout this period, heavy at times. 18Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms continue at times through the work week and the weekend, with localized flash flooding remaining possible. A Flood Watch for flash flooding has been issued for much of the forecast area until 8 AM Sunday morning. Flooding potential will be greatest on Friday and Saturday. Isolated strong storms with gusty winds remain possible each day during the afternoon/evening hours through Saturday. 2) Drier weather returns Sunday night into the beginning of the new work week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the rest of the work week and the weekend as a very moist airmass remains in place, with a lingering frontal boundary and periodic crossing upper waves providing synoptic scale enhancement at times. Guidance continues to forecast PWATs in the 1.5 to 2.0" range into the weekend, resulting in the potential for localized flash flooding. Scattered showers and storms are ongoing across the region this afternoon as a modest shortwave traverses across the area. Shower/storm motion is fairly progressive, but given rates of 1"+ per hour, localized flash flooding is possible given any training of convection. Activity should begin to steadily dissipate later this evening, with mainly dry conditions overnight, although some showers could move in late tonight across the west and north. A bit of patchy fog is possible across southern/eastern WV depending on clearing. The most widespread rainfall is expected on Friday as a cold front slowly approaches from the north and a more robust shortwave crosses overtop. Motion of showers/storms given H850 flow should be similar to that of today, but with perhaps a bit more training potential. Another crossing shortwave on Saturday combined with the lingering surface boundary will result in more showers and storms, but perhaps a bit further south, across the central/southern CWA. Rainfall on Sunday should mainly be confined to the eastern/southern portion of the CWA as the surface boundary continues to slide southward, with mainly dry weather Sunday night into early next week. Given the locally heavy rainfall yesterday (1-2" in some areas), anticipated additional rounds of rainfall, and after collaboration with neighboring offices, have issued a Flood Watch for flash flooding through 8 AM Sunday for much of the CWA. While organized severe weather is not anticipated, given progged mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 1,000 J/kg each afternoon/evening and modest 0-6km shear, isolated strong storms cannot be ruled out. The hazard associated with any heavy storms would be strong wind gusts. KEY MESSAGE 2... Building high pressure from the north and east following the passage of a cold front late this weekend will result in a much drier Sunday night and start to the new work week. Near seasonable temperatures are expected. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Due to convection providing recent rainfall at all sites today the main theme will be potential MVFR fog and/or stratus tonight and in the morning along with quieter weather meaning no thunderstorms expected. Fog may become more robust overnight and any fog development will burn off by 13Z. Although boundary layer winds will be somewhat elevated to deter much fog development tonight and surface flow will be out of the southwest for the duration of this TAF period. After any fog development, early afternoon thunderstorm activity will likely come to fruition once again and can cause some flight restrictions during the daytime. Some shower activity is expected by late morning, but confidence is low and may not get into many sites, however more low (borderline MVFR) clouds and/or fog will become prevalent and may affect sites with IFR at times by early afternoon with MVFR CIGs returning amid thunderstorms that may pose heavy downpours at times. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions tonight with fog and/or stratus may be worse than currently forecast. Timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms Friday morning/afternoon could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L M H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L M L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L H M AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions associated with showers and thunderstorms remain possible through the weekend. IFR conditions are also possible with fog and/or stratus each night and early morning, especially across valley locations. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>034-039-040-515>526. OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ067-075-076-083>087. KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for VAZ003-004. && $$ DISCUSSION...GW AVIATION...JZ  762 FXUS62 KCHS 092346 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 746 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections have been updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A prolonged heat wave will maintain hot and humid conditions through the end of the week and into the start of the weekend. - 2) Typical summertime afternoon and evening thunderstorms this week with increasing rain chances Sunday through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A prolonged heat wave will maintain hot and humid conditions through the end of the week and into the start of the weekend. For Friday, the region will solidly placed along the northern periphery of the subtropical anticyclone aloft centered just to the east of the Bahamas. Low-level thickness and 850 hPa temperatures will change little from Thursday with values holding 1437-1442m and 20-22C respectively. The day will start off rather warm with temperatures likely to warm quickly after daybreak. Soundings and low-level thickness schemes support another day of highs in the upper 90s to near 100 with some locations likely surpassing 100. The record highs at both KCHS and KSAV could be challenged. Guidance does show mid-level moisture drying out a bit in response to a dry slot passing through aloft. This coupled with vertical deep mixing should help mix out dewpoints into the upper 60s inland which will limit heat indices there compared to the past few days. Closer to the coast, some mixing is also likely too occur into the early afternoon before dewpoints surge again with the passage of the sea breeze. Similar to the past few days, dewpoints are expected to pool back into the upper 70s/lower 80s near/behind the sea breeze itself. The inland progression of the boundary does look to propagate inland a bit later than usual with the best pooling of dewpoints likely to occur across the lower South Carolina coast, especially the Charleston County coast. Coastal heat indices are poised to peak in the 108-112 in the coastal corridor with 110-115 along the Charleston County coast. For this reason, a Heat Advisory has been posted for the coastal counties as well as Dorchester and Inland Berkeley with an Extreme Heat Warning for Charleston and Tidal Berkeley where the chances for reaching 113 heat indices for at least hours is the highest. Isolated afternoon convection could provide some relief for a few areas, but a Major to Extreme heat risk persists across all of the Lowcountry and Southeast Georgia. Overnight, lows are only forecast to dip into the upper 70s/lower 80s. These warm overnight conditions could result in prolonged heat stress, especially for more vulnerable communities and those without adequate cooling overnight. For Saturday, things look a bit cooler overall as the subtropical ridge begins to flatten out yielding slightly cooler temperatures and a bit more in the way of shower/tstm activity. Heat indices are still expected to peak in the 105-110 range across the coastal corridor with 100-105 farther inland. Another Heat Advisory may be needed for these areas depending on how quickly convection sparks, but levels look to fall short of Extreme Heat Warning criteria. KEY MESSAGE 2: Typical summertime afternoon and evening thunderstorms this week with increasing rain chances Sunday through Tuesday. Friday and Saturday: This hot and humid pattern will persist across the region. However, forecast soundings indicate slightly less PW and some potential dewpoints to mix a bit lower. The forecast features 20-30% pops for parts of the Lowcountry with 20-50% pops for Saturday, highest over the Charleston Tri- County. Sunday through Tuesday: The GFS and ECMWF indicates that a H5 trough will ripple over the region and persist during early nextweek. At the sfc, a cold front is forecast to push south over the region, possibly becoming stationary. In addition, AIFS indicates that a broad sfc low may develop over the forecast area Sunday night, pushing off the coast Monday into Monday night. Forecast soundings indicate the PW will increase to 2 to 2.2" across the region. Synoptic scale forcing along with slight to moderate instability should yield much higher shower and thunderstorm coverage. These storms may potential produce pockets of excessive rainfall given the deep moisture and possible concentration of storm coverage near the coastal low. WPC has highlighted the region with a marginal risk on Sunday and Sunday night. The marginal risk could be expanded into Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 00Z TAFs: Radar indicates isolated convection along the sea breeze this evening, which is generally inland of all of the TAF sites. Given the low probabilities of impacts, we kept all of the TAF sites VFR and dry. Winds should gradually ease later this evening. Another round of convection is possible Friday afternoon, with the highest probabilities for impacts at KCHS. Also, gusty winds are expected with the sea breeze Friday afternoon. Extended Aviation Outlook: There will be a low end risk of thunderstorm impacts each afternoon and evening through Friday. Showers and thunderstorm coverage and risk of associated restrictions may increase Sunday through Tuesday. && .MARINE... Through tonight: It continues to look like the gradient will pinch a bit across the local waters through this evening, producing enhanced south to southwest flow. Wind speeds of 15-20 knots should be common, strongest across the Charleston County waters and along the Charleston County coast (and Charleston Harbor) where sustained speeds could reach 20 knots with gusts pushing 25 knots. A Small Craft Advisory could be needed in these areas through the evening. Winds should then gradually diminish through the late night hours while turning more west- southwest. However, speeds will remain elevated in the 15-20 knot range. Seas are expected to be in the 2-4 ft range, and up to 5 ft in portions of the Charleston County waters. Friday: Surges in the wake of the sea breeze may result in southwest winds to increase during the afternoon and continue into Friday night with a classic summer nocturnal surge. Wind gusts may peak around 25 kts, possibly requiring Small Craft Advisories. The short duration of the elevated winds should keep wave heights between 3 to 4 ft. Saturday into Tuesday: The pressure pattern should support south-southwest winds between 10 to 15 kts, with occasional gusts into the low 20 kts. Wave heights are forecast to favor 2 to 4 ft. Rip Currents: There is a Moderate Risk for rip currents for the Charleston County coast on Friday, and then for all of southeast SC and southeast GA on Saturday. Conditions will feature 2-3 ft swell with wave periods up to 9 seconds. In addition, SSW winds will likely generate a moderate longshore current, possibly supporting rip currents near piers and jetties. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: July 10: KCHS: 100/1986 KCXM: 99/1986 KSAV: 102/1879 July 11: KCXM: 100/2001 July 12: KCXM: 97/1966 Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 9: KCHS: 80/1998 KCXM: 85/1998 KSAV: 80/1883 July 10: KCHS: 81/1986 KCXM: 82/1986 July 11: KCHS: 80/2016 KCXM: 82/2016 July 12: KCHS: 79/2020 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for GAZ217>219-239- 241. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for SCZ044-045-148- 149-151. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for SCZ150- 152. MARINE...None. && $$  775 FXUS63 KDVN 092347 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 647 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated-to-scattered showers and storms (20-40% coverage) are expected this afternoon through Friday night, mainly along and south of Interstate 80. Heavy downpours, lightning, and wind gusts up to 40 mph are the primary hazards with any strong storms. - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions becoming more likely (50-80%) Sunday through the middle of next week, with increasing heat and humidity levels. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A mixture of residual outflow boundaries, a weak cold front, and subtle mid-level troughing is keeping the clouds around this afternoon as noted by visible satellite imagery. Isolated-to- scattered storm development (20-40% coverage) is possible this afternoon where breaks in the clouds will enable modest destabilization in the form of 1500-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE, but with only 10-20 knots of 0-6-km effective bulk shear, these storms will likely (95+%) be sub-severe. Highs are forecasted to be in the 80s areawide with light westerly winds shifting to northwesterly. By the evening, a weak 20-knot LLJ to the south of a confluence boundary is forecasted support additional storms (20-40% coverage) and cloud cover along and south of the I-80 corridor through 3AM before conditions begin to dry out on the backside of a low pressure moving from Missouri into southern Illinois. On Friday, lingering mid-level troughing over the CWA should keep PoPs around 20-40% in the afternoon south of I-80 as high pressure begins to build in to our northwest. Cloud cover will also stick around as a diurnal cumulus deck develops in northeasterly flow at the surface as cirrus outflow from convection over the Central Plains creeps in. Luckily, the cloud cover and weak CAA will once again keep highs in the 80s, seasonable for July. Heading into the overnight hours, conditions will once again dry out as the high pressure to our northwest shifts eastward into Minnesota and Wisconsin, advecting in some drier air. With the clearing skies for areas north of Highway 34, lows should drop into mid- to-upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Saturday through Wednesday will be mostly dry (90% chance) as upper- level ridging builds in across the Northern Plains on the backside of the trough currently over us and the high pressure over Wisconsin drifts southward into our CWA. Large-scale subsidence and weak upper-level winds will also suppress cloud cover, setting up the potential for above normal temperatures next week. Current LREF guidance has highs Sunday through Wednesday in the upper 80s to low 90s (50-80% chance) with dew points in the 70s (50-70% chance). This is corroborated by the CPC 6-10-Day Temperature Outlook having a 40-60% of above normal temperatures. While it is too early to say for certain if heat headlines will be needed, it is growing more likely, especially for areas south of I-80. In more positive news, the upper-level ridge over us is not expected to last long as a retrograding, cut-off low heights center along the Gulf Coast could weaken the ridge late next week, potentially splitting it in two as noted by the ECMWF ensembles. This could enable troughing again over the Midwest, introducing PoPs and seasonable temperatures back into the forecast by the end of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 647 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A lower-confidence TAF forecast set, mainly for this evening through the overnight hours, as we will continue to deal with the potential for isolated showers/storms overnight, along with someMVFR fog possible late tonight. First, we're currently monitoring a thunderstorm just south of DBQ early this evening as of TAF issuance, which appears likely to just miss the terminal to the southeast, along with the remnants of a storm now east of BRL. Latest high-res models suggest some isolated showers or storms late tonight, mainly for CID and MLI. However, confidence in this remains low with little model agreement, so will use PROB30 groups for now. Second item of focus will be on MVFR fog potential overnight as light winds and a stout low-level inversion develops. Some guidance suggests visibility reductions down to IFR in some locations, but latest NBM probabilities of this are near 20 to 30 percent, with MVFR visibility reductions closer to 50 percent, so will lean towards MVFR for now. However, IFR conditions will need to be monitored. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Delaune LONG TERM...Delaune AVIATION...Schultz  716 FXUS63 KSGF 092345 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 645 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - 30-60% chance for storms this afternoon, and 40-80% chance Thursday night. Slight Risk for severe weather generally north of Hwy 60 and east of I-49 Thursday and Thursday night. Primary hazards include damaging winds up to 60-70 mph and localized flash flooding. Secondary hazards include hail up to quarters and weak tornadoes. - Flood Watch in effect until 7 AM Saturday. Multiple rounds of storms expected this afternoon/tonight, and Friday afternoon/tonight may bring localized areas up to 3-5 inches of rain. - Slight Risk for severe weather across the Lake of the Ozarks Region Friday. Damaging winds up to 60-70 mph and hail up to half dollars are the main risks. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Somewhat complex features are splayed around our region today. An MCV associated with this morning's activity is currently exiting through east Missouri. A secondary, smaller MCV is just moving out of NE KS into NW MO. At the surface, an outflow boundary from residual morning activity is currently oriented NW to SE from Kansas City, down through Stockton and into south- central MO. This has been slowly lifting NE as a warm front through the early afternoon. Elsewhere, a surface low is over southern KS, which is helping keeping winds more southerly/southeasterly rather than southwesterly. Cloud debris from the morning complex has been hanging around the region, keeping temperatures in the mid to upper 80s across the area. Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening: The MCV moving into NW MO and residual outflow/warm front draped across the area is our focus for new thunderstorm development and potential severe weather this afternoon. From a conceptual model mental picture standpoint, synoptic ascent ahead of the MCV should kickstart storms along the surface boundaries SE of Kansas City. Indeed, the cumulus clouds around the Kansas City area is gaining some better texture. When storms form there, they should move southeast along the warm front/outflow boundary which is producing an SBCAPE gradient across our area (>3000 J/kg SW of the boundary, and <2000 J/kg NE of the boundary). Latest CAMs and WoFS output has been slowly gravitating to this conceptual model with storms developing and moving into our area around 4-5 PM and lasting through the evening. Our 12Z sounding depicted decent inverted-V thermo profiles below 700 mb. This, paired with Theta-E Diffs around 22-25 C, will promote largely a damaging wind threat with storms that form along this region (northeast of a Nevada to West Plains line). Added shear from the MCV influence (0-6 km bulk shear around 30-35 kts), would promote some line segments as well with enhanced winds up to 70 mph possible. There is still a secondary weak tornado threat focused along wherever the warm front/outflow boundary settles this afternoon and evening. Yesterday's discussion mentioned three things that needed to happen for the tornado threat to materialize. A) The MCV enhanced low-level shear and curvature greater than modeled. Check! Our VAD along with RAP analysis shows 35-40 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear, 20-25 kts of 0-1 km bulk shear, and 30-40 kts of 0-3 km shear. Additionally, it all appears to be curved with near 100-150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH (200-300 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH). B) Dewpoints needed to be on the upper-end of the percentile spectrum. Check! Observations across the area depict dewpoints around 72-77 F. C) Temperatures needed to be cooler than forecast to inhibit very high dewpoint depressions and LCLs. Check! Temperatures across the area are in the middle to upper 80s rather than the lower 90s the HRRR had forecasted. This is keeping LCLs a bit lower. All things together introduces a low- end weak tornado risk, especially along the warm front/outflow boundary where added vorticity and surface-based inflow will be available. Flood Watch in effect until 7 AM Saturday Morning: As the night goes on, the nocturnal inversion will settle in and the LLJ will decouple and increase to 30-40 kts. This will overlap the warm front/outflow boundary in which storms will track over during the afternoon. With skinny elevated 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE profiles at the nose of the LLJ along with 1.8-2.0 inch PWATs, additional storms are expected to develop across the eastern Ozarks. Storm motions to the southeast will be parallel to the initiating boundary, increasing the risk for training storms. Efficient rainfall paired with a training risk leads to a flash flooding potential. Therefore, a Flood Watch has been issued for areas east of Miller to Howell Counties. Even just a bit of training could result in localized areas of 3-5 inches of rain within the Watch area. Since storm motions are fast, flooding risk will be localized to areas that see training of multiple storms. These overnight storms are expected to continue through early Friday morning until the nocturnal LLJ dissipates with daytime mixing. Dry periods are then expected Friday morning. Slight Risk for severe storms Friday afternoon and evening: But wait! The synoptic boundary is still expected to hang around the area during the day Friday as only weak zonal flow is over the area. CAMs are actually in pretty good agreement on the location and timing of another MCV moving through the central Plains and being over the Kansas City area Friday afternoon. Lift and enhanced shear ahead of this along the synoptic boundary will focus redevelopment of storms, potentially severe, Friday afternoon and evening. This would be focused within the Lake of the Ozarks region where shear will be better closer to the MCV. As the environment will not change much, multicell clusters with damaging winds up to 60-70 mph will be the main threat, but with a bit better shear forecasted, hail up to half dollars are also possible. A flooding risk will also evolve again Friday night with the LLJ, especially over areas that see the most rain today and tonight. Therefore, the Flood Watch stays in effect through Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms and flooding Saturday: The synoptic boundary will continue to sag southward during the day Saturday. Once again, little change to the environment will keep a severe and flooding risk across the area, but focused mainly across southern Missouri as the boundary moves southward. That said, exact details will become more apparent with mesoscale features that develop overnight Friday. Dry weather returns next week with more seasonable temperatures: An overturning wave break over the northern CONUS into the southeast states will bring more seasonable temperatures to the area to start next week with highs in the middle to upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. In the extended 7-14 day range, the wave break will dip into the Ozarks, bringing another heat dome to the area. The CPC gives a 50-60% chance of Heat Index values exceeding 105 F at some point during the July 14-18 timeframe. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms (some severe) will continue into tonight, mainly at KSGF. KBBG and KJLN may also see non- severe showers and storms, but probabilities are less than 25% at this time. Expect LLWS at all sites tonight. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...FloodWatch through Saturday morning for MOZ057-058-070-071- 082-083-097-098-106. && $$ SHORT TERM...Price LONG TERM...Price AVIATION...Titus  707 FXUS66 KOTX 092346 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 446 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions through the weekend. - Breezy west winds through the Cascade gaps Thursday and Friday each afternoon and evening. - Breezy south winds become more widespread Saturday afternoon with the strongest winds up the Okanogan Valley. - Warming trend early next week. && .SYNOPSIS... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will continue through the weekend due to low humidity and breezy winds. A broad ridge building over the west-central U.S. early next week will continue to bring warm temperatures across the Inland Northwest. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Sunday: The main concerns the next few days will be fire weather driven as the inland northwest will see strengthening 500 mb southwest flow as the desert southwest monsoon high pressure deepens. Each afternoon will have dry and breezy winds through much of the region. The main concerning day for fire will be Saturday as a weak wave pivots northward from northwest OR to southern BC in the morning, leaving central and eastern WA vulnerable to breezy southwest winds. The Okanogan valley will be particularly susceptible to these south winds as the upvalley diurnal wind will assist. With the shortwave departing into southern BC and the cold front stalling over the region, synoptic and mesoscale descent will lead to fairly rapid drying. This combination of rapidly drying conditions and breezy winds will lead to rapid fire spread with any new or ongoing fires. There is a small chance (10-15% chance) of elevated showers and thunderstorms Saturday morning on the warm side of the cold front in southeast WA and the ID Panhandle which carries low confidence. Monday through Thursday: Above average temperatures will continue into next week as the monsoon ridge sticks around the region. This timeframe will need to be watched closely for dry lightning events as models are showing increased PWATs. The best chance for wetter thunderstorms will be in far southeast Washington and ID Panhandle where ensembles have PWATs around 125-175% of normal through much of the week. Increased moisture will bring increased chances for cloudy skies, which would keep temperatures cooler. /DB && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs: Widespread VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours, though wildfires may locally inhibit visibilities. Breezy winds will persist through the Cascade gaps. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions regionwide. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 57 90 59 86 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 57 89 59 86 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 52 87 54 84 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 60 96 62 93 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 55 89 56 86 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 56 88 58 85 57 85 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 Kellogg 55 88 57 84 57 82 / 0 0 20 0 0 0 Moses Lake 58 92 57 88 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 64 90 62 86 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 60 92 58 88 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706). ID...None. && $$  741 FXUS66 KSGX 092346 CCA AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 446 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A strong area of high pressure will continue to bring hot weather through Friday. Ever so slight cooling occurs by the weekend into Monday as high pressure moves to the northeast. The high pressure's movement will bring in greater monsoonal moisture for our area by Sunday into at least the latter part of next week. This will bring increased rain and thunderstorm chances to inland areas with greater humidity for the entire region. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... A stronger inversion is seen on this morning's atmospheric sounding, near 13C, which will give the marine layer clouds a tough time to clear the beaches today. The heat continues away from our coastal areas again with highs in the triple digits for our deserts, and well into the 90s for far inland valleys and southern mountain areas. Moderate to high heat risk is again in the forecast through Friday for these areas, so please take breaks and drink plenty of water if you must be outside. High pressure over the region today and Friday will begin to move to the northeast this weekend. This will knock temperatures down a few degrees for areas away from the coast. As the system moves northeast, southeasterly flow around the high will bring greater humidity and monsoonal moisture to the region starting on Sunday. This will bring a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly to the northern mountains in the afternoon. Limiting factors for convection to form are a lack of instability as well as getting the atmosphere moist enough after a very hot dry air mass having been over us this week. Models indicate a continued uptick in moisture by Monday with a better moisture feed pattern aligning over SoCal. The best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be over the mountains and deserts, locally into the far eastern valleys. Models indicate the high moving and expanding into the northern Great Plains by the middle of the week, retreating back across the Intermountain West by the end of next week. Monsoonal moisture looks to continue moving into the region through much of next week around this system, bringing daily chances for showers and thunderstorms across the mountains and deserts. With this flow pattern, Sunday and beyond looks to be humid for all areas of our region as well! As the high retreats closer to the region, temperatures make a rebound by the middle of the week. This will bring moderate to high heat risk for areas away from the coastal regions, including the valleys of Orange and San Diego County. && .AVIATION... 092330Z....Coast...Areas of low clouds based around 1200-1500 feet MSL will push ashore after 03Z and cover all coastal areas overnight by around 09Z. Cigs will lower to 800-1000 feet overnight. Vis restricted 1-5SM over higher coastal terrain. Scatter out Friday 16- 18Z, but patchy low clouds to persist along immediate coast. Low clouds around 1000-1500 feet MSL to move ashore after 04Z Saturday. .Valleys/Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear and VFR conditions to continue through Friday evening. Onshore winds 25-30 kts through mountain passes and locally into deserts. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Wednesday. && .BEACHES... Astronomical high tides of 7.0-7.2 ft are forecast July 12-14. Higher than normal tides combined with a modest south swell (3 ft swell 14/15 seconds from 190 degrees) generating surf of 4-6 ft may result in areas of coastal flooding in low lying areas, boardwalks, beach parking lots, and beach adjacent streets during evening high tides. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Friday for Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for Coachella Valley- San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...APR AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM  804 FXUS62 KRAH 092347 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 749 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 215 PM Thursday... 1) Less thunderstorm coverage this afternoon and Friday afternoon compared to Wednesday afternoon, while heat concerns persist across the southern Coastal Plain this afternoon. 2) Continued warm Sat, with increased chances for diurnally driven convection through the weekend. Best chances shift south through mid- week, with near to below normal temperatures Sun through Tue. && .DISCUSSION... As of 215 PM Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Less thunderstorm coverage this afternoon and Friday afternoon compared to Wednesday afternoon, while heat concerns persist across the southern Coastal Plain this afternoon. While one or two very light radar echoes have developed along the US- 1 corridor this afternoon, overall thunderstorm coverage is expected to be less than yesterday. The bulk of convective-allowing models show the most widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms well to the north across the DC metro area down to Richmond, as well as across the western half of North Carolina. Although diurnal cumulus has developed across the entire forecast area, the deepest clouds are along and to the west of US-1. Despite these early radar echoes along US-1, still believe that the greatest coverage for precipitation will remain contained to the Triad during the mid to late afternoon, with all convection coming to an end around sunset. Friday's pattern looks similar to today, although by the end of the afternoon, a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms should expand across the entire forecast area. Air temperatures are a couple degrees cooler than this time yesterday, although dewpoints remain in the upper 60s and lower 70s. However, neither the air temperature nor the dewpoints have come down much across the southern Coastal Plain, where heat index values around 105 degrees still remain possible through the afternoon. A Heat Advisory is in effect for Sampson and Hoke Counties until 8pm. KEY MESSAGE 2... Continued warm Sat, with increased chances for diurnally driven convection through the weekend. Best chances shift south through mid-week, with near to below normal temperatures Sun through Tue. Aloft, a s/w will help amplify the longwave trough as the former progresses esewd across the OH Valley and mid-Atlantic over the weekend. Meanwhile, a mid-upper level anticyclone will strengthen and lift nwd across the Rockies, then shift ewd over the nrn/cntl Plains. The trough will push south and east of the region next week as the high builds across the nrn/n-cntl CONUS. At the surface, a trough will remain in place until a backdoor cold front pushes swd- sswwd across the area Sun/Sun night. High pressure will ridge swd across and remain over the area through early-mid week, while an area of low pressure develops off/along the Carolina coast, though details remain uncertain. Expect the greatest chances and coverage of convective activity as the trough moves across the region Sat and Sun. Specific details wrt instability and available moisture vary between the NAM and GFS forecast soundings, with the GFS more moist and NAM more unstable, but overall the airmass is not expected to change significantly until after the fropa Sun. As for temperatures, the warmest day should be Sat, with highs ranging from upper 80s north to mid 90s south. Mon should be the (relatively) coolest day, with highs ranging from low 80s NW to mid 80s SE. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 749 PM Thursday... TAF period: Generally VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. However, isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening. Outlook: Scattered thunderstorms are expected Saturday and Sunday, mainly in the PM hours. There will be a lower chance of a shower or storm Monday, mainly confined to southern and western areas from INT/GSO/FAY, with all locations expected to be VFR Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: July 10: KRDU 99/1993 KFAY 103/1986 Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 10: KGSO 77/1981 KRDU: 77/2024 KFAY: 77/1998 July 11: KGSO 75/1992 KRDU: 77/1981 KFAY: 77/2024 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ088-089. && $$ DISCUSSION...Green/10 AVIATION...Badgett/Green CLIMATE...RAH  819 FXUS64 KEPZ 092347 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 547 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 543 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Scattered mountain and isolated lowland thunderstorms each afternoon and evening through Saturday with strong wind gusts and blowing dust over portions of Southwest New Mexico. - Lowland temperatures remaining hot through Saturday with highs around 98-102; except highs Thursday and Friday from 100 to 104. - Thunderstorm chances will increase late Sunday into early Tuesday with a potential for moderate to heavy rainfall near stronger storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1056 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 High pressure over the Desert Southwest is maintaining a standard summertime pattern of very warm temperatures and isolated mainly mountain based thunderstorms in the afternoon and evenings. This pattern will persist into the weekend as the center of the high pressure area moves to the Four Corners region by Saturday. Moisture needed to fuel thunderstorm development in the region remains limited with precipitable water values hovering around an inch over the lowlands, which is the minimal amount needed to generate isolated thunderstorms with orographic lift and day time heating this afternoon and early evening. Very warm temperatures near and above 100 degrees will occur across the lowlands this afternoon and again on Friday and Saturday. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to remain just below heat advisory criteria, but it will still be very hot outside. With available moisture sitting mostly at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, these storms will be high based at around 8000 feet AGL, producing light spotty rainfall of a few hundredths to a few tenths of an inch. Dry and hot conditions at the surface will set up a potential for strong wind gusts and blowing dust from storms. Portions of the SW New Mexico bootheel will be especially impacted by strong outflow winds moving south from thunderstorms developing over mountains of the southern Gila Region this afternoon. There is a potential for reduced visibility from wind gusts over the Lordsburg Plays this afternoon and early evening. The weather pattern will likely repeat Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon with isolated mainly mountain based thunderstorms producing spotty rain and strong wind gusts and possible blowing dust haboob. By Sunday the center of the dome of high pressure will have drifted north over the Northern Plains, setting up a deep easterly flow pattern over the forecast area that will allow greater amounts of moisture into the region. Projected precipitable water amounts will rise to roughly 1.3 inches Sunday night into early Tuesday. The increased moisture will support a greater number of longer lived thunderstorms that will be capable of periods of moderate to heavy rainfall near storm cores. Cooler temperatures and increased cloudiness will also result from this pattern shift. The area of high pressure will expand later next week and transport a drier air mass into the region that will limit shower and thunderstorm development later next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 543 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Showers and thunderstorms ongoing with several outflows out there. Sudden wind shifts and gusty winds from outflows should be expected over the next couple hours at least. This activity will start to ramp down over the next few hours with very little activity by midnight tonight. A stray shower or two is possible later tonight. Quiet and calm conditions overnight but another round of thunderstorms expected tomorrow afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1056 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 We remain in a hot and somewhat dry pattern as minimum RH values in the lowland deserts drop into the teens this afternoon through Saturday. Prevailing winds will be light, generally less than 10 MPH. Enough moisture be around for scattered mountain and isolated lowland storms with gusty winds to 40 mph and isolated dry lightning the main concerns. Rain amounts will be light and spotty. Vent rates will range good to very good. This pattern changes little through Saturday, but by Sunday, moisture and Rh values will begin to increase while daytime temperatures decrease. There will be increased coverage of wetting rains and thunderstorms Sunday through early Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 77 104 77 103 / 10 10 20 10 Sierra Blanca 69 98 69 98 / 0 10 10 0 Las Cruces 70 102 69 101 / 10 10 20 10 Alamogordo 74 101 73 100 / 10 20 10 40 Cloudcroft 55 78 54 77 / 20 50 10 60 Truth or Consequences 73 103 74 101 / 10 10 10 10 Silver City 65 95 65 94 / 20 60 20 40 Deming 69 104 69 103 / 10 20 30 10 Lordsburg 68 100 68 99 / 20 20 40 20 West El Paso Metro 77 103 76 102 / 10 10 20 10 Dell City 71 102 71 100 / 10 10 10 0 Fort Hancock 75 104 75 105 / 0 10 10 10 Loma Linda 70 96 69 95 / 10 10 20 10 Fabens 75 104 74 104 / 10 10 20 10 Santa Teresa 73 102 72 101 / 10 10 20 10 White Sands HQ 78 103 77 102 / 10 10 20 10 Jornada Range 73 103 72 101 / 10 10 20 10 Hatch 72 106 72 104 / 10 10 20 10 Columbus 75 104 74 103 / 10 20 30 10 Orogrande 71 101 72 100 / 10 10 10 10 Mayhill 59 90 59 87 / 10 50 10 40 Mescalero 59 90 58 89 / 20 40 10 60 Timberon 56 87 56 86 / 10 40 10 40 Winston 61 94 62 93 / 10 40 10 20 Hillsboro 70 100 71 99 / 10 20 20 10 Spaceport 69 102 69 101 / 10 10 20 10 Lake Roberts 59 96 59 96 / 20 60 20 60 Hurley 65 98 65 98 / 20 60 20 20 Cliff 65 101 66 101 / 20 40 20 40 Mule Creek 63 97 63 97 / 20 40 20 30 Faywood 66 97 66 97 / 10 40 20 10 Animas 69 100 68 99 / 40 20 50 20 Hachita 68 100 67 99 / 20 20 50 10 Antelope Wells 68 98 67 98 / 40 40 60 20 Cloverdale 64 91 63 91 / 60 30 60 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for Lowlands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley- Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher  833 FXUS64 KMOB 092348 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 648 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Heat indices remain in the 100 to 107 range each afternoon through Sunday, with localized spots potentially reaching 108-110. - Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue through Friday, increasing to numerous to widespread by Sunday into early next week with potential for locally heavy rainfall. - A Moderate risk of rip currents will return for all area beaches Friday night through the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The forecast remains on track as a couple of showers and storms north of Highway-84 dissipate through mid-evening, followed by mild overnight temperatures in the middle 70s inland, upper 70s for our coastal communities, and around 80 degrees at the beaches. /22 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Weak westerly flow aloft will persist through Friday as ridging remains centered to our south across the eastern Gulf and the Florida peninsula. Seasonably high moisture combined with strong instability will maintain a typical summertime convective pattern through the end of the workweek. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and again on Friday, primarily along the advancing sea breeze as a light onshore flow allows it to progress well inland. Isolated showers and storms are also possible near the coast Friday morning along the land breeze. Any stronger pulse storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall. A complex pattern evolution takes shape this weekend into early next week. A large upper high is projected to build across the central and northern CONUS, forcing a positively tilted trough over the Ohio Valley southward into our region along with an east- west oriented surface trough and weak frontal boundary. Rain chances will begin to increase on Saturday, especially inland where PoPs rise to the 40- 60% range. Moisture convergence ahead of the boundary will increase PWATs above the 90th percentile of climatology for Sunday into Monday (potentially exceeding 2.25" in spots). This will favor the development of widespread showers and storms with the potential for localized flooding. The WPC has introduced a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Monday for the entire area. Trends will continue to be monitored for increasing flood potential during the Sunday-Tuesday timeframe. Any strong to severe thunderstorm potential would be most likely on Sunday afternoon thanks to ample surface heating south of the front. By Monday, cooler temperatures and widespread cloud cover with nearly saturated profiles will likely favor more in the way of overrunning, with the greatest heavy rainfall potential likely developing near the coast, but this will depend on where the boundary sets up. Confidence decreases by Tuesday as model solutions diverge on whether a the front stalls over the area or shifts offshore. Trends in the guidance suggest the upper trough will eventually close off and retrograde westward along the Gulf Coast beneath the building ridge through the middle of the week. This would return us to a typical onshore summertime flow pattern by midweek. Temperatures will remain seasonably hot through Sunday, with afternoon highs generally in the low to mid 90s and peak afternoon heat indices ranging from 100 to 107, with a few localized spots potentially reaching 108 to 110 degrees. Overnight lows will continue to offer little relief, generally in the mid 70s inland and upper 70s to around 80 near the coast. Increased cloud cover and widespread rainfall should bring noticeably cooler conditions on Monday and Tuesday, with highs topping in the low to mid 80s or perhaps even upper 70s in some spots, especially over the interior. At the beaches, a Moderate risk of rip currents develops Friday night and persists through Sunday for all area beaches, continuing into Monday for the Florida beaches. JGC/98 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through Friday afternoon. Light southerly to southwesterly winds overnight into Friday will increase to near 10 kts in the afternoon as a seabreeze moves inland. Isolated storms developing on the seabreeze could cause brief reductions to MVFR/IFR level. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A light to occasionally moderate southerly to southwesterly flow prevails through Sunday, becoming mainly westerly by early next week. Seas will remain generally 2 feet or less through Friday, building to 2 to 3 feet for the weekend into early next week. Expect locally higher winds and seas in and around thunderstorms. JGC/98 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 76 93 76 93 / 10 20 20 50 Pensacola 79 93 80 93 / 20 20 20 40 Destin 81 92 81 92 / 0 20 20 30 Evergreen 73 94 73 93 / 20 30 10 40 Waynesboro 74 95 74 94 / 20 20 10 50 Camden 74 92 74 92 / 20 10 10 40 Crestview 74 94 74 95 / 10 30 10 50 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  862 FXUS65 KVEF 092349 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 445 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry conditions and above-normal temperatures will continue through the end of the week. * Monsoonal moisture begins increasing this weekend, resulting in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms early next week. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday. High temperatures will continue to be fairly steady and 6 to 8 degrees above normal into the weekend. Hot daytime temperatures combined with warm overnight low temperatures will result in widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) with small pockets of Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk for most locations. A combination of dry and breezy conditions also prompt elevated fire weather conditions across much of the region today and tomorrow. High temperatures will begin to trend downward on Sunday but low temperatures will be trending higher with the increase in moisture. The center of the high will make to near the Four Corners Region on Saturday afternoon. Given the easterly flow, any convection over the Mogollon Rim may produce outflow that may push into Mohave County as early as Saturday evening. Overall, gusty outflow winds and dry lightning continue to be the primary threats for at least the first few days as forecast soundings display inverted-V patterns with moisture aloft and drier air near the surface. Orographic lift will favor storm formation over high terrain. Thunderstorms will be isolated on Sunday as instability will be fairly limited but coverage should increase across the area on Monday. The moisture will ebb and flow during the week as the center of high pressure shifts a little further north or south. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package... Consistent SSW-SW winds prevail over the Las Vegas Valley this afternoon with gusts to 25 kts at times. Sustained winds and gusts weaken after sunset, but isolated gusts to 18 kts still possible into tonight. A weak mid-upper disturbance passing through overnight may bring a few hour period of more elevated winds and gusts to the valley than is normally seen overnight. Watching the 07-11z timeframe for possible elevated winds of 08-12 kts with a sporadic gust to 20 kts. By 11z, expect the daily wind pattern to return with light and variable winds through 16z. Winds tomorrow may remain variable from SE-SSW for few hours longer than the past few days. Thinking by 18z expect SE-SSE winds 08-10 kts with isolated gusts to 15-18 kts, then by around 21z a more consistent S-SSW direction sets up with gusts to 20-25 kts through the evening. Temperatures will exceed 100 degrees between 17Z and 04Z with a high of 110. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Gusty afternoon winds between 20 and 25 kts at Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River Valley TAF sites continue into the evening before gusts diminish after sunset. May see a few hour period 10-14z of elevated and gusty winds at KIFP and KEED as a weak disturbance moves in aloft, added gusts to 20 kts in the TAF to account for this overnight/early morning wind threat. For KBIH, winds have finally switched around to the S this afternoon, but expect winds to be variable at times before a switch back to the NW around sunset. Strong daily westerly winds prevail a KDAG and will persist well into the night before diminishing slightly by 10z. Expect daily wind patterns at all sites tomorrow with lighter winds in the morning becoming gusty around 20 kts in the afternoon. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Czyzyk AVIATION...Moore For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  945 FXUS62 KMLB 092351 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 751 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 750 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Hot through Saturday, especially across the north where high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will keep heat indices around to just under Heat Advisory criteria (108-112 degrees), with widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk impacts. - Below normal rain chances 40 percent or less continue through Friday, then rain chances pick back up closer to normal 30 to 60 percent from the weekend into early next week, before decreasing again. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Today-Tonight... Upper level high pressure across the southern US will remain in place through the day. At the surface, high pressure in the western Atlantic will will slowly lift its axis from south Florida to north Florida through the day. This will result in light and variable winds across east central Florida. The east coast sea breeze has formed already this afternoon and is slowly pushing inland this afternoon. The west coast sea breeze is slightly favored over the east coast sea breeze (except from Cape Canaveral southward), with the collision forecast to occur across the interior into this evening. Drier air continues to filter across the area today, with PW values ranging from 1.5-1.7" south of the I-4 corridor, and 1.8-2.1" northward. This will suppress the overall rain chances today, with 20 percent chance for showers and storms from the Orlando Metro to the Cape northward (with the sea breeze collision being the primary focus) late this afternoon and into this evening (generally after 6pm). The environment will support showers and storms, with forecast models showing ample instability (MUCAPE 2500+j/kg), and sufficient downdraft potential (DCAPE ~800 J/kg) which could be aided by the drier air aloft. The main storm hazards today will be frequent to excessive lightning, gusty winds 40-55 mph (with a very low chance for locally high winds to 60 mph), and torrential downpours. Very hot today with a few locations near daily record highs (see climate section below). Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 90s, with peak heat indices near to above 108F, up to 110F along the I-95 corridor in Volusia, Brevard, and adjacent portions of inland counties. Widespread Major with areas of Extreme HeatRisk impacts are forecast. A Heat Advisory has been issued for all East Central Florida through 8 PM this evening. Never leave children or pets unattended in a hot vehicle. Look before you lock! Take frequent hydration breaks if outdoors, and seek the A/C or shade if you feel unwell. Friday-Saturday... Upper level high pressure across the southern US will expand to the central US by Saturday. At the surface, high pressure across the western Atlantic, with its axis extending over the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf, will stay in place through the period. Locally, this will result in south to southeasterly flow continuing through early weekend. Higher moisture will filter across the south (PW values around 2.0" across the south and 1.7-1.8" across the north) on Friday, before the higher moisture spreads across much of ECFL on Saturday (PW values 1.8-2.1"). There is a low to medium (20-40 percent) chance of showers and lightning storms on Friday, with the highest chances occurring around Lake Okeechobee, and a medium (40-60 percent) chance of showers and storms areawide on Saturday. Storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 45-55mph, and locally heavy rainfall. Above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend, with afternoon highs generally in the mid to upper 90s each day. These temperatures coupled with high humidity will produce peak heat indices of 100-107 degrees. While these temperatures are just below Heat Advisory criteria, it is very close. So will continue to closely monitor these values, and a Heat Advisory may be needed this weekend. Regardless on if a Heat Advisory is issued, widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk impacts are forecast both days. Sunday-Wednesday... Upper level high pressure will continue to dominate across the Southern and central US through midweek, despite a trough moving into the NE US by mid week. At the surface, the high pressure across the Florida peninsula and the Deep South will weaken into early to mid week as a trough builds from the NE US down across the eastern seaboard and a weak associated front will move into the Deep South. This will result in some relief from the above normal heat across Florida. Forecast soundings show some drier air, PW 1.6- 1.7", will filter across the area from the south by early week. Despite the drier air, upper level support from the aforementioned trough and the associated front as well as moisture along the front will support near to slightly above normal rain chances across east central Florida next week. Higher cloud cover will help slightly with temperatures, with afternoon highs at or slightly above normal. Peak heat indices will be 102-107 degrees each day, with widespread Moderate with areas of Major HeatRisk impacts forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Today-Monday... Generally favorable boating conditions through early next week as high pressure remains in control. South to southwest winds today will shift southwest to southeast on Friday and Saturday, before becoming south to to southwest once again by early next week. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form each day, backing the winds south to southeast behind the breeze in the afternoon and early evening. Winds speeds will generally be 5-15KT, occasionally reaching over 15 KT from the Cape northward overnight. Seas will be 1-3 feet. There is low (20 percent) chances for showers and lightning storms through Friday, then chances increase closer to normal (30-60%) through the weekend into early next week, starting near the coast Saturday and Sunday, then expanding into the offshore waters by early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 750 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Mostly VFR. Isolated storms will continue to be possible through this evening, especially with any boundary collisions near to northwest of the I-4 corridor. With coverage remaining below normal due to drier air aloft, have kept any TEMPO groups for TSRA out of this TAF package, but will continue to monitor radar trends should any be needed this evening. Otherwise, have VCTS through 03Z for KLEE, KMCO, KISM, KSFB, KDAB. Convection will diminish into late evening, with dry conditions expected tonight into Friday morning. Shower and storm chances remain below normal into tomorrow, with greatest coverage of this activity focusing toward west central Florida. However, have VCTS starting around 16-17Z for KFPR/KSUA and then 21-22Z for inland TAF sites with the inland moving sea breeze. Onshore winds behind the sea breeze diminish this evening, becoming light and variable. East coast sea breeze will pick up winds out of the E/SE again tomorrow as it shifts inland, with wind speeds increasing to 10-13 knots. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Record high temperatures at local climate sites for this week: Site July 9 July 10 July 11 Daytona 97 (2022) 97 (2010) 98 (1980) Leesburg 97 (2016) 97 (2016) 97 (2016) Sanford 100 (2016) 97 (2007) 99 (1969) Orlando 98 (1932) 99 (1980) 98 (1989) Melbourne 96 (2023) 98 (1964) 97 (2010) Vero Beach 96 (2024) 97 (2022) 96 (2020) Fort Pierce 100 (1932) 96 (1981) 99 (1980) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 77 95 77 95 / 30 10 10 30 MCO 77 98 77 97 / 30 20 10 60 MLB 77 92 78 92 / 10 10 10 50 VRB 77 93 77 93 / 0 10 0 50 LEE 79 97 79 96 / 30 20 20 40 SFB 77 97 77 97 / 30 10 10 50 ORL 78 97 78 96 / 30 10 10 50 FPR 76 92 77 92 / 0 10 10 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053- 058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Watson AVIATION...Weitlich  055 FXUS64 KMRX 092353 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 753 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 737 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Multiple rounds of showers and storms are expected Friday and continuing through the weekend. Flash flooding will be a concern for areas that see repeated heavy downpours. A Flood Watch is in effect Friday afternoon through Sunday evening. - Some storms could lead to strong wind gusts as well, especially Friday afternoon. - Drier weather returns for the middle of next week with near normal temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A weakening shortwave is lifting from the southern to central Appalachians this afternoon and evening. Isolated to weakly scattered convection has developed in its presence. Latest model derived soundings and SPC Mesoanalysis page suggest MLCAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg paired with PWATs between 1.5-1.7 inches. Cannot rule out some gusty winds or localized flooding if multiple strong cells track over one location, however, the main focus for the forecast period will be tomorrow and carrying into the weekend. A more potent shortwave will enhance westerly low and mid-level flow Friday morning, also amplifying upper level longwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes region. Multiple rounds of showers and storms among highly anomalous moisture availability are expected Friday through at least the weekend as various vort maxes round the base of the trough. Some showers and storms may develop Friday morning, but with drier air aloft and limited instability due to the time of day, lower confidence exists in the potential for minor flooding. As we head into the PM hours, a semi-organized cluster of storms is expected while PWAT values increase to near or just above 2 inches. This reaches into the 90th percentile for PWAT values based at KBNA. Combined with high freezing levels and plenty of afternoon instability, the chance for flooding will be on the increase. A Flood Watch has been introduced starting at 16Z and carries into Sunday evening. Additionally, strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out with the activity roughly between 11am-4pm Friday as an elevated mixed layer will promote enhanced DCAPE near 800-1100 J/kg. Strong to damaging winds will be the primary hazard. A brief lull in activity is expected late Friday afternoon before additional showers and storms develop Friday night into Saturday. Overall, this period looks to have the greatest potential for flooding as a northwest to southeast area of convection develops and could lead to training heavy downpours. The chance for precipitation continues into Sunday and Monday, but there is a bit more uncertainty as to how the the position of a front evolves through the weekend and into the new week. However, it does look that Tuesday into the mid week will feature drier conditions among a warming trend. The best chance for some lingering precip would be in the very southern tier of counties. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 737 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Showers and storms are currently isolated and that is expected to continue through most of the night. By the early morning hours, activity may start to increase. Multiple waves of showers and storms are expected throughout the day and may begin in the morning hours. Confidence is low on timing. VFR conditions are expected outside of storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 91 73 88 / 10 50 60 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 88 72 84 / 30 80 90 90 Oak Ridge, TN 70 87 71 85 / 30 90 80 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 84 67 81 / 30 9090 90 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday evening for Cherokee-Clay. TN...Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday evening for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell- Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen- Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon- Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount- Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-Union-Washington TN-West Polk. VA...Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday evening for Lee- Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise. && $$ DISCUSSION...KRS AVIATION...McD  259 FXUS63 KBIS 092357 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 657 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through this evening. - A strong warming trend is expected through the rest of the week into early next week, with many locations exceeding 100 degrees Saturday through Monday. An Excessive Heat Watch is in effect from Saturday through Monday. - Mainly dry conditions are expected through the hot spell. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Current surface analysis places cool front stretching through northwest North Dakota. Upper level analysis places westerly flow over our area, with a few short waves noted in the flow. Over our area, a few weak showers continue to linger over parts of Wells and Foster Counties. For the rest of this afternoon into tonight, aforementioned frontal boundary combined the short wave will serve as the focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon into tonight. The question is how much convection will develop given the modest forcing. With that said, a very unstable atmosphere will be in place, with noted RAP CAPE values around 2000-4000 J/KG through central North Dakota/James River Valley at the time expected convective initiation. Deep layer shear will be ample for rotating updrafts, and oriented perpendicular to the frontal boundary suggesting rapidly developing supercell thunderstorms will be possible. The greatest chance for scattered severe weather did shift east a bit from earlier covering parts of southwest North Dakota, along with most of central ND and the James River Valley. Storms then push off to the east through the night. Thereafter, focus shifts towards the hot temperatures expected to plague our area this weekend into next week. Broad upper level high builds over the central and much of the western CONUS this weekend, remaining into the upcoming work week. High temperatures climb into the triple digits over many locations on Saturday, and over most of the area on Sunday, with triple digits remaining over many locations into Monday. With this, dew points remain around 60, so an elevated humidity factor will come into play. Therefore, the Extreme Heat Watch remains in effect. With the upper high in place, expect mainly dry weather, but given the extreme temperatures would not be surprised to see a random thunderstorm pop up somewhere during this period. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 650 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Appears the main potential for thunderstorms will focus in the BIS and JMS terminals space this evening, and would put convection as "quite likely" for JMS. As such, have converted JMS to a TEMPO group honing in on the 02-05Z time frame. BIS is roughly the same time period, but it's possible storms stay just S/SE, so continued this as a PROB30 group, for now. Gusty and variable winds will be expected with storms this evening. Most model guidance clears activity out by around midnight. These locations may develop some fog around dawn, with slightly higher chances for JMS than BIS. Rest of the day Friday will be VFR with light E to SE winds. For MOT...have removed the mention of thunderstorms from the latest TAFs as it appears the primary area of development will remain just off to the E/SE. A weak front can be seen on visible satellite and area observations, which will switch winds around to the N. Speeds will remain light, though. Main concern thereafter is the potential for fog to develop in this area, as well. Have added some 5SM BR to indicate this potential, but if the fog indeed develops, VSBYs could easily be worse, mainly in the 11-13Z time frame. Once any fog burns off by mid morning, rest of the period looks to be VFR with light Erly winds. For XWA and DIK...expect VFR conditions and generally light winds through the period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Monday night for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-023-025- 031>033-035>037-040>044-046>048-050-051-055>062. && $$ DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...Thies NWS Hastings  230 FXUS66 KPQR 092356 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 0456 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Persistent onshore flow will continue to yield dry and seasonable weather through this weekend. Temperatures trend warmer early next week as high pressure builds over the Plains. Beyond midweek, forecast uncertainty increases but dry and hotter weather is favored. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Wednesday...Pleasant, seasonable, and benign weather is expected to continue through this weekend as zonal flow aloft turns southwesterly ahead of an upper-level trough moving onshore into British Columbia on Saturday. Temperatures will remain near seasonal norms, reaching afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s in interior valleys and low to mid 60s along the coast each afternoon. Inland intrusions of low marine stratus clouds overnight will largely clear to sunny skies each day, aside from more persistent coastal clouds Friday and a deeper inland intrusion Saturday morning as the trough makes its closest approach. These clouds will help keep Friday and Saturday a few degrees cooler. By the beginning of next week, a broad upper-level ridge over the Central Plains will amplify, pushing heights aloft upward locally. This will result in warmer temperatures Monday and Tuesday, with afternoon highs most likely in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees within inland valleys and mid 60s to near 70 degrees on the coast. Temperatures look to peak on Tuesday, with the chances to exceed 90 degrees reaching 25-40% along the I-5 corridor from Portland southward. The chances for Moderate HeatRisk reach 25-45%, highest in the lower Tualatin Valley (Beaverton, Tigard, Tualatin) and adjacent portions of Multnomah and Clackamas Counties (Portland, Wilsonville, Canby), while the chances of Major HeatRisk remain less than 5%. While forecast uncertainty increases, the ensemble consensus is that another trough will move into western Canada midweek, pushing temperatures back down a few degrees on Wednesday, resulting in widespread Minor HeatRisk. Looking slightly beyond the 7-day forecast period, the ensemble consensus suggests the robust inland ridge may retrograde to the west, resulting in increased chances for more hazardous heat toward the end of next week. At this lead time, the chances for Major HeatRisk reach 10-25% from Salem north to the lower Cowlitz Valley and Portland east through the Columbia Gorge from next Thursday into the following weekend. -36 && .AVIATION...Zonal flow aloft will give way to a weak upper level trough approaching the region. This will produce a typical summertime wind pattern across the region with breezy northwest winds this evening subsiding overnight. There is a high probability (>80% chance) that MVFR to high end IFR ceilings will push onto the coast between 03-06z Friday and then persist through at least 18-21z Saturday. Inland penetration of marine clouds should be limited, but there is a 20-30% chance of MVFR ceilings at any given hour between 14-16z Friday materializing at KPDX and KTTD. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Zonal flow aloft will give way to a weak upper level trough approaching the region. This will produce a typical summertime northwesterly wind pattern with an increase in winds this evening and VFR conditions through at least 12z Friday. There is a 20-30% chance of MVFR ceilings pushing up the Columbia River and reaching the terminal around 14-16z Friday. && .MARINE...High pressure over the waters today will maintain breezy north to northwest winds through this evening. Gusts up to 20 kt will be possible south of Cape Foulweather. A weak cold front will move across the waters on Friday, ultimately disrupting the high pressure and decreasing winds across the waters. High pressure effetely rebuildsover the coastal waters through the weekend, returning northerly winds later Saturday and increasing pressure gradients on Sunday, returning chances for gusts up to 25 kt. Seas are expected to remain around 4 to 6 ft as relatively benign conditions persist through the weekend and into the start of next week. /DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland