478 FXUS64 KSJT 100000 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 700 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot and dry conditions return for today and Friday with afternoon highs in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. - Low to medium (20-50%) chances for showers and thunderstorms return for this weekend through early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 105 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Skies were sunny to partly cloudy with warm and dry conditions across west central Texas this afternoon. Temperatures were in the low to mid 90s while winds were from the south at 10 to 15 MPH. At the upper-levels, an elongated ridge was set up from southern California and across Texas. This will continue to be the predominant feature for the rest of today before it starts to break down tonight and tomorrow. A surface low pressure area was moving through the central Plains and resulting in stronger southerly winds this afternoon. Winds should diminish tonight with mild temperatures in the mid 70s. On Friday we'll see one more day of warm and dry conditions with high temperatures in the mid 90s to around 100. Southerly winds of 10 to 15 MPH are expected again as a frontal boundary approaches the southern Plains. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 105 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 This weekend, models are in good agreement that the ridge will shift northward and become centered over the northern Plains. A broad area of mid-level vorticity will rotate around the base of this ridge into central Texas by Monday. Conditions on Saturday will be mostly warm and dry, but chances for a few thunderstorms will increase for the Hill Country by the evening due to the departure of the ridge. By Sunday, the low-levels winds should become more southeasterly and advect more gulf moisture into west central Texas. A surface cold front will also drop into Texas by late Sunday. As a result, this should lead to a more unsettled pattern across the region with higher chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially Sunday night through Tuesday. At this time, rainfall amounts do not look significant. However, any area could see multiple rounds of individual storms for the first half of next week which could result in localized heavy rainfall. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 659 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Initially gusty south-southeast winds this evening will decrease tonight, and expect to lose the gusts by 03Z-04Z. On Thursday, south winds will increase by mid-morning and continue through the afternoon. Expect gusts to be around 21 knots at KABI, and 18-20 knots at our other TAF sites. Some VFR-based cumulus clouds may develop over mainly southern and central parts of the area during the day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 75 97 75 96 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 74 97 74 95 / 0 0 0 20 Junction 72 94 73 93 / 0 0 20 30 Brownwood 74 97 75 95 / 0 0 0 10 Sweetwater 75 99 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 71 93 73 92 / 0 0 0 20 Brady 72 93 72 92 / 0 0 0 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM....SK AVIATION...19  717 FXUS66 KMTR 100003 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 503 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1256 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Warmer temperatures persist through early next week - Long period southwest swell causes an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents through Friday - Coastal Flood Advisory for up to 1.7 feet of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways - Potential for thunderstorms and elevated fire weather concerns late this weekend into early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1256 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 (This evening through Friday night) High pressure strengthening across southern California will build northeastward over the Desert Southwest over the weekend. As such, a gradual warming and drying trend is forecast through the weekend and into early next week. 850 mb temperatures look to reach between 23- 25 degrees C during this timeframe. However, generally Minor HeatRisk are expected with pockets of Moderate HeatRisk across the far interior areas through the weekend. Thus, afternoon maximum forecast temperatures today will be in the 60s near the coast, 60s/70s around the bays, and 80s to middle 90s inland. Meanwhile, the warmest interior locations of the Monterey County have a greater than 60% probability of reaching 100 degrees F. Tonight, expecting mist/light drizzle to impact the coast at times with low clouds forecast to push locally inland into the valleys. However, widespread rainfall is highly unlikely. That said, not expecting as widespread coverage as this morning with the marine layer forecast to compress. Temperatures for Friday will be similar to those this afternoon. Friday night looks to be more of the same, low clouds near the coast will return back inland with temperatures generally in the 50s across the lower elevations. However, the building high pressure over the Desert Southwest will result in warmer temperatures in the higher elevations where 60s to lower 70s are expected. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1256 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 (Saturday through next Wednesday) We are still expecting mid/upper level moisture to be advected northward as southerly winds aloft on the periphery of the high pressure over the Desert Southwest. This will be most notable Sunday into Monday and potentially lasting through Tuesday night. However, the limiting factor remains instability at those levels with MUCAPE forecast to remain less than 500 J/kg based off of the latest CAMs. That said, the GFS has little to no CAPE across our region, yet the mid/upper level moisture looks highly likely. So the threat for high based convection still appears to be low at this time. We'll continue to monitor the higher resolution models with each subsequent model run(s) for the potential high based convective. By Monday and Tuesday we begin to see more Moderate HeatRisk across the interior. This is as overnight lows are forecast to increase as a result of the building high pressure early next week. That said, mid/upper level cloud cover (as a result of the mid-level sub- tropical/tropical moisture) may limit surface heating. However, onshore winds and a shallow marine layer will remain present, keeping conditions cooler near the coast. In the extended, high pressure is forecast to remain parked over the Desert Southwest with troughing off of the Pacific Northwest coast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 457 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The marine layer is about 800 feet deep, compared to 1,000 feet this time yesterday. Broadly speaking the aviation weather impacts will be similar to yesterday with low clouds pushing inland overnight. The difference is the inland extent and ceiling duration should be lessened. On the other hand the ceiling height will also be a couple hundred feet lower, and there will likely be more visibility impacts through the morning. Vicinity of SFO...Will the clouds be able to spill over the Peninsula mountains. That's the biggest question of the night. If they do, the terminal will get a ceiling very soon. Otherwise it will hold off until at least 06Z as the clouds fill in the Bay first. SFO Bridge Approach...Will likely stay clear for several hours longer than the terminal in either scenario described above. Monterey Bay Terminals...MRY is already tucked into a stratus blanket for the night, while SNS will join the party soon. LIFR conditions are highly likely at MRY after what we saw this morning. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 457 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Rough northwest seas (9-11 ft) continue into the weekend and begin to subside to moderate (6-8 ft) by Monday. Strong northwesterly winds and near gale force gusts also begin to diminish to fresh breezes with strong gusts returning by Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1256 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Warmer and drier conditions continue through early next week. This increases fire weather concerns slightly as fuels are forecast to rapidly dry across the interior. Fire weather concerns further increase late this weekend into early next week as a surge of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California brings the potential for high based convection to the region. If thunderstorms are able to develop, dry lightning and gusty, erratic outflow winds would be the main hazards. The limiting factor is the lack of instability over our region those days. Thus, we will continue to closely monitor these conditions through the weekend. Given the combination of the potential for dry lightning and rapidly drying fuels, it is important to stay up to date on the forecast as it evolves. && .BEACHES... Issued at 457 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for Pacific coast beaches through Friday afternoon. Long period southwesterly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 feet. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for minor high tide flooding through Thursday July 16th. The combination of a perigean spring tide (lunar perigee on 7/13 and new moon on 7/14) enhanced by 3-6 inches of additional water from thermal expansion and accumulated sea level rise since the tidal datum was established (1983-2001) will bring high tides up to 1.7 feet above normal. This will lead to minor flooding of parking lots, parks and roads with isolated closures expected. For context, in June we reached 2.0 feet above normal and in January we reached 2.5 feet above normal. && .BEACHES... Issued at 425 AM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for Pacific coast beaches through Friday afternoon. Long period southwesterly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 feet. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for minor high tide flooding through Thursday July 16th. The combination of a perigean spring tide (lunar perigee on 7/13 and new moon on 7/14) enhanced by 3-6 inches of additional water from thermal expansion and accumulated sea level rise since the tidal datum was established (1983-2001) will bring high tides up to 1.7 feet above normal. This will lead to minor flooding of parking lots, parks and roads with isolated closures expected. For context, in June we reached 2.0 feet above normal. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 4 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Navarrete Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  743 FXUS61 KCLE 100003 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 803 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The forecast remains generally on track with a few strong thunderstorms possible in Northwest Ohio this evening. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible with thunderstorms on Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening through Friday as a cold front settles south into the area. A few thunderstorms could be strong to severe(level 1 of 5) and produce locally heavy rain. 2) Dry conditions return on Sunday with temperatures trending warmer into next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A broad area of low pressure is located near southern Lake Huron with a cold front extending to the southwest. Showers and thunderstorms have developed with weak to moderate instability of around 1000 J/kg of ML Cape ahead of the cold front across northern Indiana and southeast Michigan. Thunderstorms to the northwest have produced some wind gusts of 40-50 mph in an environment with slightly better shear in proximity to a shortwave over western Michigan. Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase across Northwest Ohio this evening and we will need to watch for a few stronger thunderstorms with DCAPE of 1100 J/kg. Activity may struggle as it moves east towards Cleveland and encounters dry air aloft early this evening. The airmass will continue to undergo moistening this evening and will see scattered showers and thunderstorms try to sneak across Lake Erie as the shortwave passes aloft. The threat for severe storms (Marginal Risk level 1 of 5) is still focused across Northwest Ohio which seems reasonable. By 00Z, PW values are forecast to increase to around 2 inches across northern portions of the forecast area. While a decrease in coverage is likely this evening as we lose heating, scattered showers with a few thunderstorms are expected overnight as the front sags south into the area with another shortwave moving through the quasi-zonal flow aloft after midnight. A general uptick in coverage is expected again as we destabilize on Friday along the front. Training of storms resulting in pockets of heavy rain are the main concern on Friday with storm motion of only 10-15 mph. HREF probs are showing some very low probabilities of three hour rainfall exceeding 3 inches in some of the southern counties on Friday afternoon with activity settling south of the area during the evening. Another robust shortwave will move through the Ohio Valley on Saturday and have continued with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures drop back into the lower 80s behind the front by Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 2... Strong high pressure builds over the Central Great Lakes on Sunday and settles south into the area early next week. This will bring several days of dry weather. A broad upper level ridge is forecast to develop over the Plains states next week. The eastward extent of the ridge will impact temperatures and chances of precipitation into the middle of next week. At this time confidence is higher in above normal temperatures in Northwest Ohio with lower confidence towards Northwest Pennsylvania due to the possibility of a trough passing to the north and/or possible lake breezes. The 12Z GFS was stronger with the New England trough than the consensus and continued with above normal temperatures for most of the area next week. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Some widely scattered showers with isolated TS are moving through northern Ohio this evening. Right now, most of the TS chances should miss the terminals, as convection is waning over the area. However, some residual gust fronts may make it to KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG and allow for somebrief showers and wind shifts over the next couple of hours. Overall, the atmosphere is stabilizing this evening, even with the upper level shortwave moving through the region. Additional shower/storm development remains low once the sun goes down by 02z. Some model guidance is hinting at some sparse development overnight and have retained some PROB30s for rain late tonight into Friday. However, believe that activity will be minimal and the potential for non-VFR at a terminal remains very low. As for convection in eastern Michigan or lower Ontario, it appears that much of that is moving east and should remain away from the airspace. For Friday, the cold front will move through the region and could allow for new showers and storms to develop. The recent trend with guidance is for less convection in the airspace and much more to the south over southern Ohio. Therefore, have no precipitation mention in the TAFs. However, some low probability mentions may be added in future TAF issuances. Winds will be southwest to west through most of the period, shifting to the northwest behind the cold front. Outlook...Non-VFR possible with scattered thunderstorms through Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE... Calm marine conditions are expected to continue as high pressure lingers over the area. Southwest winds of 5-12 knots will gradually become northwesterly tonight into Friday morning as a weak low pressure system move south of the lakeshore. Waves will remain 2 feet or less. As the low moves south, there is a potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop which may produce locally gusty winds and higher waves. High pressure returns this weekend allowing winds to shift to northeasterly at 8-12 knots for Saturday and Sunday. Onshore flow across the western and central basin may result in waves building to 1 to 3 feet. This high will remain dominant into next week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...10 AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...04  779 FXUS66 KMFR 100004 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 504 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...Aviation Discussion updated... .KEY MESSAGES... * Typical summer weather for the end of this week: Continued slightly hotter than normal temperatures and slightly lower than normal humidities, gusty afternoon winds, strongest east of the Cascades. * Trough approaching the Pacific Northwest Friday into the weekend resulting in tightening pressure gradients and gusty southwest winds (25-35 mph) Friday-Sunday. Gusty winds combined with low RHs bring a Red Flag Warning for much of Modoc, southeast Klamath and southwest Lake counties (winds strongest/RHs lowest on Saturday). * A thunderstorm risk develops early next week. Best chances on Tuesday, and east of Cascades and across northern California with lesser, but not negligible chances for the West Side. && .DISCUSSION...Forecast confidence/model agreement is high through Monday. This short term forecast is the story of two troughs near the southeast coast of Alaska, and a persistent ridge centered over the 4 corners/Great Basin. The approach of the first trough will tighten pressure gradients on Friday, with peak values during the afternoon and early evening expected to produce critical conditions for much of Modoc, southeast Klamath and southwest Lake counties. It will remain very dry, and the gradient will barely weaken on Saturday and Sunday, with peak speeds expected to be just a couple or few mph weaker than Friday. Hot, and dry conditions continue on Friday and Saturday with a stable air mass. At this juncture, the NBM does not indicate a significant enough risk of thunderstorms to warrant including in the official forecast. But, that may change over the next couple of days. There is a potential for thunderstorms that is greater than zero, as early as Sunday afternoon. Convection is expected to be capped by warm air aloft over at least southwest Oregon. Weak instability and an influx of mid-level moisture may produce a few cells from northern California into south central Oregon. Mid and upper level moisture increases early Monday into Monday night. There is a likelihood of upper level clouds hindering heating, but also some potential for thunderstorms with higher than normal bases...increasing the potential that any thunderstorms that develop end up being dry thunderstorms. Uncertainty increases Tuesday with models diverging roughly into a camp that keeps the second trough on the GFS idea of a track across British Columbia and northern Washington, and the ECMWF solution that forms a cut-off offshore from northern Oregon. There is actually a third potential that a cut-off forms closer to shore. The first scenario would most likely produce a slight chance risk for the east side, the second scenario of the trough offshore is favored by a slightly larger portion of ensemble members and would limit the convective risk, but the third scenario of a trough near to our coast is a classic pattern for convective development. As such, there is a potential for the thunderstorm risk at mid- week to either diminish or increase in comparison to Tuesday. Uncertainty is high late in the week. In any case, any noticeable cooling is highly unlikely for next week. && .FIRE WEATHER...Updated at 200 PM Thursday, July 9, 2026... Seasonable temperatures and humidities are expected for the remainder of the week, with elevated to critical fire weather concerns increasing Friday and continuing through the weekend. Areas with critical fire weather conditions have led to the issuance of a Red Flag Warning starting Friday and continuing through Sunday. Strong gusty southwest to west winds (25-35 mph) are expected Friday through the weekend. Daytime humidities will be inthe mid to low teens on Friday. When combined with these gusty winds, critical fire weather conditions are likely across Modoc county and southeastern portions of Fire Weather Zone (FWZ) 624 for Friday and continuing through Sunday. While wind speeds decrease overnight with improved overnight humidities, fire weather conditions will remain heightened Friday through Sunday. Critical fire weather conditions are expected to peak on Saturday when humidities trend lower (low teens/single digits possible), winds increase some (25-40 mph) and these combined conditions are more widespread across the East Side. Conditions improve slightly on Sunday with wind speeds on the lower end of the spectrum and humidities trend ever so slightly higher. That said, critical fire weather conditions are likely to continue for Sunday. A potential thunderstorm pattern is shaping up for the first half of next week as the flow becomes south to southwesterly which could send monsoonal moisture into the region. Latest model guidance has shifted a bit on the overall pattern set up. The region will remain wedged between strong high pressure to the east and incoming troughs from the west/northwest. The proximity of those troughs could be enough to keep the flow more southwest or even westerly, and the more westerly the flow, the lower the chances for thunder, especially west of the Cascades. Uncertainty remain, but currently looks like the best chances for thunderstorms would be across eastern areas Monday-Wednesday. We'll need to monitor the potential for any shortwaves/tropical activity that models try to develop and send our way early next week. On the other hand, if models continue this more eastward shift of the incoming troughs/southwest to west flow, we could potentially see an extended period of winds/RH concerns vs thunderstorms. Stay tuned as details become more clear with future model runs. && .AVIATION...10/00Z TAFs...LIFR and IFR marine stratus is expected to redevelop along the coast this evening (beginning 02-04z), north of Cape Blanco, and also near Brookings and persist through Friday morning with gradual lifting and clearing in the afternoon. All other areas will remain VFR through the TAF period with the typical increase in breezes this afternoon and evening. && .MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Thursday, July 9, 2026...A thermal trough will maintain gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas into this evening. Very steep, hazardous warning level seas are expected south of Gold Beach, and generally beyond 5 nm from shore and there could be a brief period of northerly gales in this area in the late afternoon and early evening. Conditions improve later tonight through Friday into Saturday morning as the thermal trough weakens and winds ease, but steep seas will continue for all areas south of Cape Blanco through Friday evening. Gusty north winds will increase again from early on Sunday into Sunday evening, with steep seas likely south of Cape Blanco. Improved conditions are expected to follow on Monday before the thermal trough strengthens again from Tuesday into the latter half of next week. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Friday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ624. CA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Friday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ285. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. && $$  024 FXUS62 KTBW 100009 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 809 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Near record high temperatures with high heat index values Friday. - A few strong storms possible on Friday. && .FOR THE EVENING UPDATE... Issued at 754 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A number of record high temperatures were set today across west central Florida, and the heat will continue on Friday. Isolated strong storms this evening will gradually dissipate before midnight. Skies will become mostly clear overnight with very warm muggy conditions across the region. Hot temperatures will occur again on Friday with southeast boundary layer flow developing. The combination of enhanced convergence along the west coast sea breeze boundary, strong surface heating, and a pocket of cold mid level air advecting over the region associated with a TUTT will enhance the risk for strong/severe thunderstorms across west central and southwest Florida mainly late in the day over the coastal counties. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The continued advancement of the Saharan Air Layer into Florida will keep the peninsula dry and hot today. Heat advisories are in effect for our region, with heat index values of up to 110 expected in some areas through this afternoon. There will be little to no relief for this heat, as the SAL will keep moisture relatively low and precipitation chances slim, although an isolated shower or storm is still possible. The heat associated with this dry spell will reach near-record levels. As the Saharan dust moves out temporarily tomorrow and into Saturday, we can expect to see a slight return to our normal summer pattern. Tomorrow afternoon, slightly higher PoPs will reach into SWFL, bringing some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Storms that do develop a chance of strong, damaging winds. SPC has placed a large area of the CWA in a marginal risk (1 of 5) for severe storms. Saturday, higher PoPs and scattered thunderstorms return to much of our area, primarily south of the I-4 corridor. Beginning Sunday and into next week, a trough will set over northern Florida, which will keep the highest levels of moisture and precipitation north of the I-4 corridor. Areas south of I-4 will see continued heat index values exceeding 100, as cloud cover and precipitation may be limited. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 754 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A few thunderstorms persist over southwest Florida moving away from RSW/FMY. The storms are expected to dissipate before midnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected at all terminals tonight with skies becoming mostly clear. Daytime heating on Friday will create SCT030-040 by early afternoon. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop mid/late afternoon with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs vcnty all terminals. A few storms may be strong with damaging wind gusts and possibly small hail. && .MARINE... Issued at 233 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Mostly pleasant marine conditions continue today and tomorrow. Shower and storms chances increase slightly tomorrow especially over SWFL. Winds and seas likely to increase in the vicinity of any storms developing. Winds remain light through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 233 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The Saharan dust over the area will continue to keep the mid levels dry today, which will limit shower activity. However RH values remain above critical areawide. Shower and storm activity likely to increase tomorrow and Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 81 96 80 94 / 10 40 30 50 FMY 78 96 77 95 / 10 70 30 60 GIF 76 96 76 96 / 10 20 20 70 SRQ 79 95 78 94/ 10 40 20 50 BKV 75 98 75 96 / 10 30 20 50 SPG 81 95 80 94 / 10 40 20 50 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 7 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco- Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte- Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota- Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby DECISION SUPPORT...Close UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close  053 FXUS61 KBOX 100009 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 809 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No changes to the forecast for this update cycle. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid weather will continue through Friday, with a low risk of showers and thunderstorms. - Dry and seasonable weather with low humidity levels this weekend into Monday, but turns hot and humid by midweek. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm and humid weather will continue through Friday, with a low risk of showers and thunderstorms. Regional radar shows showers and thunderstorms across eastern PA to Long Island, with a few showers in southern New England. The region is situated between a frontal boundary across the eastern Great Lakes to northern New England and deep moisture across the Mid-Atlantic region. Drier air has limited coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area. The best chance of additional showers and thunderstorms is west of I-95 through the evening hours. The frontal boundary will slowly sag into the region Friday while moisture increases across the region. Cloud cover and patchy fog are expected to increase in coverage tonight. As the boundary lies across the forecast area, a weak shortwave trough will approach the area Friday. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase through peak heating hours, however the risk remains low. Any fog and low clouds will erode early in the morning with low clouds persisting the longest along the southern coast. There will be a low risk of showers Friday night. KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry and seasonable weather with low humidity levels this weekend into Monday, but turns hot and humid by midweek. After Friday evening's cold frontal passage into the southern waters, high pressure from Canada builds southward with cyclonic flow aloft. This will bring a cooldown toward more seasonable summer temperatures in the mid 70s to low to mid 80s, with low humidity levels and dry weather Saturday through Monday. Other than some cooler seabreezes near the eastern coast, it's otherwise shaping up to be a great weekend. By Tuesday and especially Wednesday, temperatures become quite hot as 850 mb temps soar again into the +18 to +22C range. These values are similar (somewhat cooler by comparison) to our last extended spell of high heat/humidity. The potential could exist for temperatures in the 90s with high humidity levels perhaps necessitating a period of heat headlines for midweek. The risk for thunderstorms looks limited, with a better chance on Wednesday as NW flow aloft increases and a plume of elevated mid-level lapse rates builds in favoring stronger instability. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00z TAF Update: Through 12z Friday: Moderate confidence. Generally VFR, but a couple things to watch. One is widely SCT TSRA near Berkshire County, which are slowly moving east. Main risk for TS tonight looks to be at BDL but chances are pretty low and messaged with PROB30 thru 02z. Meanwhile, starting to see IFR- LIFR stratus along the south coast; potential for MVFR- IFR ceilings as far north as PVD to OWD by 06z, but confidence is lower if it slips into BOS/BED. SW winds around 7-12 kt, with gusts to 25 kt eastern and southeast MA, though gusts subside to sustained SW winds 5-10 kt overnight. Friday: Moderate confidence. Main issue for the TAFs Fri is the timing of the cold front southward. Current indications are for winds turning NWly under 10 kt for BDL-ORH-BED-BOS between 13-15z with BKN/OVC VFR ceilings; winds turning NE under 10 kt at BOS early afternoon. Thinking area more favored to see SCT SHRA/TS is from HFD to PVD south and east after 17z, after overnight stratus disperses. A slower passage would put more TAFs at risk for SHRA/TS. Friday Night: High confidence. Lingering SHRA/TS moves offshore early Fri night to VFR conditions. Outside chance at river valley fog if skies can clear out. Winds become light northerly overnight. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence. Thinking stratus near south coast should stay far enough south of the airport. Windshift to NW under 10 kt by 13-15z Fri, then turning NE under 10 kt with BKN VFR ceilings. Slower frontal timing will affect timing of windshifts Fri. KBDL Terminal...Moderate to high confidence. PROB30 for TSRA thru 02z Fri, otherwise, VFR should prevail with a windshift to NW around 13-15z Fri. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night through Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Friday Night...High confidence. Mostly tranquil boating conditions this evening. A weak front approaches the waters from the NW Friday, but is not likely to pass the southern coastal waters until late Friday night at the earliest. A risk for scattered showers or thunderstorms tonight across the southern waters. Some risk for more afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms Friday. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Sunday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Loconto/HK AVIATION...Loconto/HK MARINE...Belk/Loconto  321 FXUS64 KSHV 100010 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 710 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - High humidity values combined with highs in the low to middle 90s will result in heat indices above 105 degrees for portions of northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma, and southwest Arkansas this afternoon. A Heat Advisory will be in effect from noon through 8 PM. - Quiet and dry weather will continue through the end of the week, with areawide highs in the low to middle 90s. - Showers and storms are expected to return this weekend, continuing through midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The ArkLaTex is sandwiched between an upper-ridge extending from southern California eastward into Texas and a weak trough across the Texas coast into north Louisiana and Mississippi. The ridge will allow for sufficient subsidence to drive temperatures into the mid 90s this afternoon across the ArkLaTex. Dewpoint values may be slow to mix across the I-30 corridor allowing for afternoon heat index values to exceed 105 degrees this afternoon. Thus a Heat Advisory is in effect from noon through 8 PM. Otherwise, the upper-trough may allow for enough instability to spark a few showers and thunderstorms across portions of north Louisiana this afternoon. Upper-trough across the northern gulf to gradually lift north on Friday allowing for convection to develop along the seabreeze boundary with a few showers and thunderstorms possible across portions of Deep East Texas and north Louisiana. On Saturday, the lingering upper-trough across the mid-Mississippi River valley becomes more dominant across the ArkLaTex. Instability associated with the trough combined with a northward surge of moisture from a weakness in the Gulf of America will lead to increasing rain chances areawide. Upper-level high pressure to become firmly established across the northern plains late in the weekend into early next week bringing an easterly upper-flow pattern to the ArkLaTex. An area of low pressure is forecast to retrograde along the southern periphery of the ridge across the Ohio River Valley into Arkansas and eventually into Texas and Oklahoma by midweek allowing for an unsettled weather pattern characterized by periods of widespread rain each day. The added instability will also provide sufficient mixing to limit afternoon temperatures to the upper 80s to lower 90s. /05/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR expected with current dry period to linger for most through Friday and maybe Saturday before widespread convection returns Sunday and into the new work week. S/SW winds prevail 5-15KT with the sea breeze amplifying over the coming days. Most of the convection will be mid to late diurnal activity until Sunday and next week when anytime will be likely. /24/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. /05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 78 95 78 94 / 0 0 0 20 MLU 77 97 78 96 / 0 0 10 20 DEQ 76 95 76 93 / 0 0 0 20 TXK 78 97 78 96 / 0 0 0 10 ELD 77 95 77 94 / 10 0 0 20 TYR 78 96 78 96 / 0 0 0 10 GGG 77 96 78 96 / 0 0 0 10 LFK 76 95 77 94 / 0 10 10 40 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059-070. LA...None. OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...24SHV-253101  322 FXUS64 KSHV 100010 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 710 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - High humidity values combined with highs in the low to middle 90s will result in heat indices above 105 degrees for portions of northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma, and southwest Arkansas this afternoon. A Heat Advisory will be in effect from noon through 8 PM. - Quiet and dry weather will continue through the end of the week, with areawide highs in the low to middle 90s. - Showers and storms are expected to return this weekend, continuing through midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The ArkLaTex is sandwiched between an upper-ridge extending from southern California eastward into Texas and a weak trough across the Texas coast into north Louisiana and Mississippi. The ridge will allow for sufficient subsidence to drive temperatures into the mid 90s this afternoon across the ArkLaTex. Dewpoint values may be slow to mix across the I-30 corridor allowing for afternoon heat index values to exceed 105 degrees this afternoon. Thus a Heat Advisory is in effect from noon through 8 PM. Otherwise, the upper-trough may allow for enough instability to spark a few showers and thunderstorms across portions of north Louisiana this afternoon. Upper-trough across the northern gulf to gradually lift north on Friday allowing for convection to develop along the seabreeze boundary with a few showers and thunderstorms possible across portions of Deep East Texas and north Louisiana. On Saturday, the lingering upper-trough across the mid-Mississippi River valley becomes more dominant across the ArkLaTex. Instability associated with the trough combined with a northward surge of moisture from a weakness in the Gulf of America will lead to increasing rain chances areawide. Upper-level high pressure to become firmly established across the northern plains late in the weekend into early next week bringing an easterly upper-flow pattern to the ArkLaTex. An area of low pressure is forecast to retrograde along the southern periphery of the ridge across the Ohio River Valley into Arkansas and eventually into Texas and Oklahoma by midweek allowing for an unsettled weather pattern characterized by periods of widespread rain each day. The added instability will also provide sufficient mixing to limit afternoon temperatures to the upper 80s to lower 90s. /05/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR expected with current dry period to linger for most through Friday and maybe Saturday before widespread convection returns Sunday and into the new work week. S/SW winds prevail 5-15KT with the sea breeze amplifying over the coming days. Most of the convection will be mid to late diurnal activity until Sunday and next week when anytime will be likely. /24/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. /05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 78 95 78 94 / 0 0 0 20 MLU 77 97 78 96 / 0 0 10 20 DEQ 76 95 76 93 / 0 0 0 20 TXK 78 97 78 96 / 0 0 0 10 ELD 77 95 77 94 / 10 0 0 20 TYR 78 96 78 96 / 0 0 0 10 GGG 77 96 78 96 / 0 0 0 10 LFK 76 95 77 94 / 0 10 10 40 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059-070. LA...None. OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...24  400 FXUS62 KILM 100012 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 812 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated aviation discussion with the issuance of the 00Z TAFS. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) The heatwave with just isolated convection to dominate during the near term. 2) Relief from the heat is in sight with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms Sat night through Sunday night as a cold frontal system drops south across the area. 3) High risk of rip currents at south-facing beaches Friday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...The heatwave with just isolated convection to dominate during the near term. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The upper ridge axis across the area will keep a lid on the majority of any convection that tries to develop today. Isolated tstorms remain possible along the pinned sea breeze across coastal Northeast SC. Mid to upper 90s will dominate todays highs with 100+ degree readings still possible. Even the coastal locations will observe low to mid 90 degree readings. Some mixing of drier air aloft will result in upper 60s sfc dewpoints inland which will keep heat indices within the advisory criteria. However mid to upper 70s dewpoints will remain across the coastal counties which will result in HIs breaching Extreme Heat Warning thresholds. A similar scenario will play out Friday and Saturday with a noted flattening of the upper ridge. Will still observe Heat Adv thresholds both Fri and Sat but max temps should remain below 100 degrees. This in part to an evolving increasing threat of convection Fri and especially Sat with debris cloudiness likely helping to hold down max temps. Increased convection chances Friday and Saturday could result in showers and thunderstorms that would limit the duration where heat indices reach 105+ degrees. Fairly confident for atleast a couple of hours of 105+ degree heat indices Friday. Thus, Heat Advisories have been issued for the coastal counties where peak HI could reach 105-109F Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Relief from the heat is in sight with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms Sat night through Sunday night as a cold frontal system drops south across the area. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... An upper pattern change starting Sun will help aid in dropping a cold front southward, crossing the area Sun with high pressure slow to fill in from the north thru mid-week next week. The result will be the threat for numerous showers and tstorms late Sat night thru Sun night, even after the cold front drops south of the area. This pattern change involves the upper ridge that has plagued the east for quite some time, that will be shifting to the west-central part of the nation and progged to amplify considerably. With plenty of antecedent heat and moisture, the setup should be quite stormy Sunday and Monday, with some storms possibly on the strong/severe side. Temps will also drop considerably with residual low 90s Sun for highs followed by potentially 80s for highs early next week. KEY MESSAGE 3...High risk of rip currents at south-facing beaches Friday and Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Building southerly swell will lead to a high risk of rip currents for south-facing beaches Friday and Saturday. Continued hot weather and weekend timing will contribute to increased beach attendance - beachgoers should stay out of the water where a high risk of rip currents is in effect. Conditions improve on Sunday as the swell weakens, and currently a moderate rip risk is forecasted for Sunday for south-facing beaches. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR through tonight. Next chance for restrictions will be Friday afternoon with the sea breeze. MVFR/IFR VSBYs and CIGS can be expected in thunderstorms as well as gusty winds. Extended Forecast...Generally VFR. Low potential for flight restrictions from fog or low ceilings each morning. Threat for periodic flight restrictions from daily afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms through Sat. More numerous thunderstorms possible Sat night into Mon as a frontal system drops south across the region. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all nearshore waters through tonight. A modest nocturnal surge will impact the waters with high pressure displaced well to the southeast. Frequent gusts to 25 kt appear likely so flags were raised to account for this. For Friday into Friday night, elevated winds will persist as the gradient between an inland trough tightens. Sustained winds of 20-25 kt with gusts nearing 30 kt appear likely. Given there will be a modest break on Friday in winds Friday morning and SCA for tonight was not extended into the day Friday. The need to extend the SCA through the day will be reevaluated later. Winds will diminish a bit for Saturday with relaxed gradient ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will push south Sunday with northeast winds prevailing Sunday night. A modest post frontal surge could push winds to near SCA levels from Cape Fear north. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Friday for NCZ105>110. Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Friday through Friday evening for NCZ106-108. High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Friday through Friday evening for NCZ110. SC...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Friday for SCZ054>056-058. Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Friday through Friday evening for SCZ056. High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Friday through Friday evening for SCZ054. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...LEW KEY MESSAGES...ILM DISCUSSION...ILM AVIATION...LEW MARINE...ILM  722 FXUS61 KCTP 100016 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 816 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... *Flood Watch expanded across the southern tier of central PA && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Locally significant flash flooding possible across portions of south central PA this afternoon and evening 2) Unsettled weather continues into the first half of the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Locally significant flash flooding possible across portions of south central PA this afternoon and evening Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in coverage this afternoon across southern PA. Rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr are likely at times, leading to 2-4" of rain with locally higher amounts possible. Synoptic ascent associated with shortwave lifting E/NE out of KY is working in tandem with RRQ of a modest jet streak aloft robust thermodynamics reflected by PWs measured via the 12Z soundings that are near previous daily records (2.17" at IAD) and a ribbon of MLCAPE already reaching 1000+ J/kg (2000 J/kg within clearing sky conditions). MRMS hourly rainfall have been above 1 inch in some areas, indicative of the impressive heavy rain environment in place. Earlier this morning, rainfall rates of ~1.5"/hr where achieved via ground truth report from broadcast media partner - so rates >2" should be easily attainable given the time of day and copious amount of moisture available. WPC excessive rainfall outlook continues to favor a "high-end" level 2/4 flash flood risk over the southern tier of central PA where locally significant/urban flash flooding is possible. KEY MESSAGE 2: Unsettled weather continues into the first half of the weekend. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday ahead of a cold front that will slowly cross the region into Saturday. Isolated flash flooding will be the primary concern as the environment will still be supportive of very heavy rainfall. A few showers remain possible on Saturday across the southern half of the area as the cold front will be very slow to move to our south. Sunday looks like a much drier day as the front finally moves off to the south and a strong ridge develops over the middle of the country. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Convection will downtrend this evening as trough axis over central Pennsylvania progresses eastward & instability wanes with the loss of sunlight. A decaying line of showers and embedded thunderstorms may bring brief wind gusts (20 kts) to KUNV/KIPT around 01Z as its outflow boundary moves through, with lower confidence in occurrence of lighting or visibility restrictions given the weakening trend. Otherwise, VFR ceilings are expected for tonight, with areas of mist/fog possible due to recent rainfall and ample moisture in place. Higher confidence in overnight restrictions from mist/fog are over the Allegheny Plateau (KBFD) and portions of the Poconos & Lower Susquehanna Valley (more so KLNS than KMDT), with patchier fog across the central mountain terminals (KJST/KAOO/KUNV/KIPT). A few showers may develop within this moist environment tonight, though sparse coverage (<30%) precludes TAF inclusions at this time. VFR is favored on Friday, though another shortwave moving across the Mid-Atlantic may bring intermittent visibility restrictions due to showers/thunderstorms. A weaker wave of showers and a few thunderstorms is expected to cross our southern/central (KJST/KAOO/KUNV/KMDT/KLNS) terminals during the morning & early afternoon, with lower confidence in lightning & restrictions from this activity. Higher confidence in scattered thunderstorms, visibility restrictions, and locally gusty winds will be from the activity that develops during the afternoon around KBFD, which will progress southand east across the Commonwealth into the evening. Convective activity will once again trend downward around sunset, with lower certainty with regards to impacts for KMDT/KLNS downstream of the initial storms. Outlook... Sat...Reduced chance and more limited coverage of PM showers/t-storm. Sun-Tue...Mainly VFR/no sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl DISCUSSION...Steinbugl AVIATION...Teare  709 FXUS63 KIND 100016 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 816 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms possible, mainly this evening into tonight, with damaging winds and heavy rain/localized flooding the primary threats - Additional rain possible at times Friday through the weekend with localized flooding possible - Warmer and drier again next week, though with more modest humidity than experienced the first week of the month && .DISCUSSION (This evening through Thursday)... Issued at 238 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Satellite imagery depicts a well defined MCV near St. Louis progressing eastward. This will likely be the main source of lift this afternoon and evening, with an MCS likely developing over south central IL after 4PM. Model guidance is still widely varied on specific placement of this MCS, but given MCV and LLJ placement, the current expectation is for this MCS to move through far SW portions of central Indiana between 7-11PM this evening. Sounding analysis shows a quasi-inverted "V" sounding in the lowers 1km of which is allowing for 1000+ J/kg of DCAPE. This should allow for micro-scale bowing segments along the cold pool, with a damaging wind gust threat during this same time period. Within any organized segments, a weak tornadic spin up is possible but given LCL height and weak boundary layer shear, this threat should remain very isolated. The next threat tonight will reside with the potential for a remnant boundary to develop following the passage of the MCV. This boundary coupled with a consistent 30-40kt LLJ could lead to training convection south of a Bloomington to Columbus line between 02-08Z overnight. If this does occur pockets of 2-4" over a 6 hour period will be possible, with localized flooding threat. As the LLJ weakens tomorrow morning, convection will eventually dissipate, with most areas becoming dry by 10Z. Friday through Saturday: Another upper level wave will move slowly through the region Friday into Saturday with a weak surface boundary expected to pass from north to south through central Indiana during the afternoon and evening. Models are starting to come to a better agreement on timing, with convection likely to occur between 4PM and 10PM from north to south across the region. Shear will be rather weak this time around, and therefor the severe risk is low for Friday. That said, there is enough destabilization through a deep saturated column for an isolated wet microburst to be possible. A quick inch is possible over a 30min period with these storms as well, but the movement on these cells should be fast enough to limit the flood threat for the afternoon and evening hours. Late tomorrow evening, this boundary is expected to stall near or south of central Indiana, with another nocturnal LLJ expected to form. If this boundary stays within central Indiana, there is some potential for an additional flooding concern Friday night, but confidence is low on this occurring at this time. Sunday through Next Week: The strong upper ridging centered over the Rockies during the second half of the weekend will shift east into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys for much of next week bringing a return to a warmer and drier pattern for central Indiana. Highs will return to the upper 80s and lower 90s through the middle of next week. Unlike the recent high heat in late June and the first few days of July...temperatures and dewpoints should be lower through the period which will keep heat indices largely manageable from a heat stress standpoint... peaking in the mid and upper 90s. A few lingering storms are possible Sunday over southern counties as an upper trough axis shifts away to the south The presence of a strong mid level cap will largely mitigate convective risks from late Sunday through Tuesday. By Wednesday and Thursday...mid level temperatures will fall weakening the cap with a greater opportunity for isolated convection focused largely during the afternoon and evening. A more pronounced threat for thunderstorms will come late week into next weekend as the ridge suppresses and a cold front sags south from the Great Lakes. In the wake of this frontal passage...a cooler airmass will expand into the region. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 816 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Impacts: - Showers and storms possible at all sites this evening into the overnight Discussion: An MCV is pushing into Indiana with a broken line of thunderstorms expected at KHUF and KBMG through 02Z and potentially a stray storm near IND. A remnant boundary behind this MCV coupled with a LLJ will likely lead to additional thunderstorms between 02-08Z overnight. Greatest threat will be at KBMG, but all sites could see a thunderstorm. Winds will be light out of the southwest(200-230 degrees) during the day, becoming variable after 00Z as the MCV pushes through. Additional chances for showers and storms through tomorrow. Can't rule out MVFR ceilings from near daybreak into the afternoon tomorrow but confidence was not high enough on coverage to include in the prevailing group at this time. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Friday for INZ060-061-067>071. && $$ AVIATION...KF DISCUSSION...Ryan/Updike  685 FXUS65 KABQ 100016 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 616 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 545 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - A low to moderate risk of flash flooding exists on area burn scars each day from daily afternoon thunderstorms. - A low risk of severe storms exists today and Friday across far northeast NM, mainly in Union County. - Highs in the 90s to low 100s result in a moderate to locally major heat risk across lower elevations, especially for those sensitive to heat, and without adequate cooling or hydration. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1244 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The 595dm H5 high remains centered west of the region over and just offshore SoCAL and the northern Baja Peninsula. Thus a similar setup for afternoon thunderstorms remains across the Land of Enchantment with little change from yesterday's observations. Afternoon convection favoring development over the southwestern, south- central, and Sangre de Cristo Mts will be the rule. Storms moving E/SE off the Sangre de Cristo's will have a marginal risk of becoming strong/severe, tapping into higher bulk shear capable of some single-cellular organization early on mostly over Colfax and Union Counties. Some of these cells will look to congeal over east- central NM by the I-40 corridor late day and evening, continuing to their demise somewhere over east-central NM generally between Clovis, Fort Sumner, and Roswell late this evening. Slow moving storms over the south-central mountains near Ruidoso will have some chance to produce locally heavy rainfall early this afternoon, but should be relatively short-lived. Storms over the Gila NF and further up along the Continental Divide will be mostly dry in nature threatening strong erratic gusts and dry lightning. However, even the stronger storms will be capable of producing brief locally heavy rain at times as has been observed in some spots of Catron and Socorro Counties the past few days. Drier westerlies will push further into the northwestern quadrant of NM today, and furthermore Friday as the H5 remains fairly flat. This will continue to shut down precipitation chances for the most part over the portion of the state. Areas of the upper to middle Rio Grande from Taos to Los Alamos to Santa Fe to ABQ, will be in that transition zone where some meager showers or isolated thunderstorm will be capable of producing a few spits of rain and mostly erratic gusty winds between 3p - 8p. Heat will be the main story there where highs are forecast to climb into the upper 90s to low 100s. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Northwest Plateau (Farmington) today, and will be issued again for Friday. Highs in the low 100s elsewhere in the middle to lower Rio Grande Valley from ABQ to Socorro will warrant an expansion of Heat Advisories there as well where Moderate to Major Heat Risk is forecast to exist. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1244 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Saturday begins the long term period with the H5 coalescing and gathering strength over the Four Corners region. This will continue the moderate to major heat risk mainly along and west of the Rio Grande Valley where highs will again climb into the low 100s for lower elevation areas. Afternoon thunderstorms will again favor the same areas for development along the eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mts, and southwestern mountains in the Gila NF. Storms moving off the Sangre de Cristo's will again drift S/SE over the eastern plains with less bulk shear to work with in order to organize. However, convective strengths could still allow for a short-duration pulse severe here and there. Storms nearthe Ruidoso area will be slower movers, favoring a S/SW direction, capable of locally heavy rainfall. The H5 high builds to 599-600dm Sunday into Monday as it tours WY and the northern Great Plains, with it's associated H5 heights reaching near record to record heights in the portion of the CONUS. Thankfully for New Mexico, this means lowering pressure heights locally and an influx of heightened monsoonal moisture from the Gulf via TX. Highs fall back into the 80s and 90s most areas. While available moisture increases, highlighted by an uptick in PWATs to near 1.00" early next week, the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms at this time does not favor a significant uptick. With the H5 to the north and northeast, scattered storms that do form will favor a westward motion likely developing along the central, northern, and western mountains. Rain efficiency of these storms should increase, with less potential for any virga and dry thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 545 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A line of showers and thunderstorms will continue to track southeastward across east central and southeast NM through early evening. High res models depict the line breaking up into more isolated cells over far east central and southeast areas during the late evening. Meanwhile, isolated cells over south central and southwest areas will gradually diminish during mid evening; some of which will produce erratic wind gusts up to 40 KT with localized blowing dust and little or no rain reaching the surface. On Friday, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will favor the southwest mountains, central mountain chain and adjacent east slopes, and the northeast plains. Storms will then move southeastward across the remainder of the eastern plains Friday the evening. After midnight Friday night, models depict more isolated cells tracking southward along NM's eastern border. Some storms will probably turn severe Friday afternoon and evening across northeast and east central areas. High temperatures on Friday will soar a few to around 11 degrees above 1991-2020 averages, making density altitude an important consideration for aviation operations near complex terrain. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1244 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Fire weather concerns will be limited to the very low humidity and poor to fair recoveries over western NM, coupled with intense heat. The heat subsides with increasing moisture and humidity arriving next week. Afternoon thunderstorms today and Friday will continue to favor areas along the central mountain chain and southwestern mountains, with cells off the Sangre de Cristo's moving S/SE. Storm motions will be more S/SW Saturday, then becoming more westerly next week as the main dome of high pressure migrates over WY and the northern Great Plains. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 62 99 61 101 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 48 94 48 98 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 59 93 59 94 / 0 0 0 5 Gallup.......................... 58 95 55 96 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 59 91 58 93 / 5 0 0 5 Grants.......................... 58 95 57 96 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 60 92 60 93 / 5 0 0 5 Magdalena....................... 65 93 66 92 / 10 20 10 0 Datil........................... 61 90 62 89 / 10 10 5 5 Reserve......................... 55 96 56 97 / 10 40 20 10 Glenwood........................ 59 99 60 101 / 20 40 10 40 Chama........................... 49 88 49 89 / 0 0 0 5 Los Alamos...................... 65 92 66 91 / 0 5 0 5 Pecos........................... 58 92 59 90 / 0 10 10 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 56 88 56 89 / 0 0 5 20 Red River....................... 49 79 48 79 / 0 5 5 30 Angel Fire...................... 36 83 37 83 / 0 5 5 50 Taos............................ 53 92 54 92 / 0 0 0 10 Mora............................ 54 87 55 86 / 0 20 20 60 Espanola........................ 61 97 62 99 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 64 93 65 92 / 5 5 5 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 61 96 62 95 / 5 0 0 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 70 98 71 99 / 5 0 10 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 67 100 67 99 / 5 0 5 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 65 102 67 102 / 5 0 5 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 100 69 100 / 5 0 5 0 Belen........................... 65 102 66 101 / 10 0 5 5 Bernalillo...................... 67 101 68 101 / 5 0 5 5 Bosque Farms.................... 64 102 65 101 / 5 0 5 10 Corrales........................ 67 101 68 102 / 5 0 5 5 Los Lunas....................... 65 102 66 101 / 5 0 5 5 Placitas........................ 68 98 69 97 / 5 0 5 20 Rio Rancho...................... 67 100 68 101 / 5 0 5 5 Socorro......................... 71 103 72 103 / 10 10 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 64 93 64 93 / 5 10 10 40 Tijeras......................... 63 95 64 94 / 5 5 10 40 Edgewood........................ 60 96 60 94 / 5 5 5 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 56 97 57 95 / 5 5 5 40 Clines Corners.................. 58 91 58 89 / 10 10 10 40 Mountainair..................... 61 95 61 94 / 10 10 5 40 Gran Quivira.................... 63 94 63 92 / 20 10 10 50 Carrizozo....................... 68 96 68 95 / 20 10 10 50 Ruidoso......................... 63 86 62 86 / 20 40 10 60 Capulin......................... 53 85 53 86 / 20 50 40 50 Raton........................... 53 91 53 90 / 10 40 30 60 Springer........................ 55 93 55 92 / 5 30 30 50 Las Vegas....................... 56 90 57 88 / 5 20 20 50 Clayton......................... 61 92 61 93 / 30 50 50 20 Roy............................. 59 90 59 89 / 10 20 40 40 Conchas......................... 66 100 65 98 / 20 20 40 30 Santa Rosa...................... 64 98 64 93 / 20 5 20 20 Tucumcari....................... 69 101 67 98 / 30 5 50 10 Clovis.......................... 68 98 67 97 / 20 0 30 5 Portales........................ 70 99 69 98 / 20 0 30 0 Fort Sumner..................... 70 100 69 97 / 20 0 20 5 Roswell......................... 72 103 72 99 / 20 0 10 0 Picacho......................... 66 96 66 94 / 20 20 10 5 Elk............................. 64 92 63 92 / 10 40 10 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for NMZ201-219-220. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...44  233 FXUS61 KOKX 100027 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 827 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Quickly diminishing flash flood and severe wind threat early this evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm wind threat late afternoon and evening Friday. Increasingly warm and muggy Friday, with heat indices peaking in the lower to mid 90s on Friday. 2) Isolated showers late Saturday aft/eve, otherwise dry conditions for the upcoming weekend into Monday with seasonably warm temperatures. 3) Hot and humid conditions build for Tue and Wed next week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered shower and isolated tstm activity will primarily affect NE NJ/NYC metro and surroundings thru this evening ahead of an approaching shearing shortwave in a marginally (locally moderate) unstable and weak shear environment, and a weak surface low pressure wave tracking across the northern Mid- Atlantic, and lee/pre- frontal surface trough approaching from the west. Primary threat will be for localized torrential downpours, with a low and localized flash flood threat (<10 % prob across NE NJ/NYC metro) with high PWATs (2-2.25"), a deep warm cloud layer, and potential for slow moving or briefly back building storms. Higher flash flood threat continues across SE PA and central/southern NJ with higher instability and enhanced moisture transport/convergence with the weak surface wave. Secondary threat of a pulse wet microburst (5% prob across NE NJ/NYC metro) in a marginally unstable and marginal shear profile. The flash flood and severe threat decreases after 7pm as environment gets worked over, instability decreases, and convection slides eastward into less favorable environment. On Friday, northern stream shortwave digs into northern New England, with a bit more in the way of mean troughing across the region, while a convectively enhanced shortwave approaches the region Friday aft/eve. At the surface, this will have a cold front approaching the region in the late afternoon/evening. Latest trend is for a bit slower approach of cold front and weaker moisture convergence with more of a low-level w/sw flow as compared to model runs 24 hr ago, and drier mid-level moisture profile on Friday compared to today. Although trigger is there, focus and moisture/instability environment appears to be weaker than Today. This is pointing to more of an isolated to widely scattered convective threat in the late afternoon/evening (4pm-mid) with low and localized strong to severe (damaging) wind threat in a marginally (locally moderately) unstable, marginal deep layer shear (30-35kt), some mid-level dry air and low-level inverted V sounding environment. Localized strong to damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. Flash flood threat looks very limited compared to today, with slightly lower PWATS (mid-level drying in wake of today's pre- frontal trough), iso to widely scattered storm coverage, and quicker anticipated storm movement. Highs on Friday will come close to 90 degrees in the NYC metro and NE NJ with most other spots reaching the upper 80s on Friday, with max heat indices reaching the low to mid 90s. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Good agreement in mean upper troughing across the NE US this weekend and offshore on Monday, while at the surface Canadian high pressure builds down from southern Canada thru the weekend and overhead by Monday. Trough axis approaches late Saturday/Saturday evening, bringing sct-bkn aft instability cu and potential of late day isolated showers, particularly across interior in a weakly unstable and residually moist airmass. Seasonable temps with comfortably lower Tds on Sunday and Monday as heart of Canadian airmass advects into the region. .KEY MESSAGE 3... General agreement in building central US heat ridge expanding eastward into the region Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing for building heat and humidity locally. Potential for heat advisory thresholds to be hit by Wednesday. Thereafter inherent uncertainty on whether an Aleutian originated upper low deteriorates the ridge enough to suppress the high heat and humidity south of the local region for late week, before building back in for next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR to VFR possible overnight. IFR possible for eastern terminals with abundant low level moisture in the area. Timing of MVFR or lower is uncertain, occurring and/or ending several hours than forecast. VFR returns for Friday, but MVFR or lower possible in any showers and thunderstorms. The main batch of showers and thunderstorms has either weakened or moved east of the forecast area. Additional TSRA possible again on Friday afternoon. Have included a PROB30 group. S/SW winds diminish overnight and become light and variable. Friday morning, winds start off from the north, with some terminals becoming more westerly in the afternoon ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments likely for timing of changes in flight categories and for thunderstorms on Friday. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Friday Night: Mainly VFR. MVFR to IFR conditions possible in any thunderstorms. Thunderstorms decrease after 06Z Saturday. Saturday: Chance of MVFR conditions in any showers that develop, otherwise, VFR. Sunday through Monday: VFR. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions thru Fri with modest S/SW flow of 10-15g20kt. Occasional gusts to 25 kt possible for ocean waters west of Fire Inlet, entrance to NY Harbor, and adjacent southern bays this evening with coastal jet development. Seas generally 2 to 4 ft. Sub-SCA conditions continue into Saturday, with high pressure building towards the waters. Potential for a brief period of marginal SCA gusts and seas Sat Night into Sunday in response to strengthening easterly flow between developing offshore low and building high. Likely return to sub-SCA Sun aft into Mon as high pressure builds back in. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents persists through Friday, due to a mixture of 2 ft S wind wave and lingering 1-3 ft SE/E swells. Low to moderate rip risk for Saturday with 1-2 ft southerly swells, and 1-2 ft SE/E wind waves. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NV AVIATION...JP MARINE...NV  684 FXUS61 KPHI 100034 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 834 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Trimmed back flood watch further and also trimmed back severe thunderstorm watch. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rain and damaging wind gusts are diminishing through this evening. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop late Friday. 2) Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday night into Saturday. 3) Drier and warmer conditions return by the end of the weekend into next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rain and damaging wind gusts are diminishing through this evening. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop late Friday. Thunderstorms have been robust rainmakers this evening, but a bit less active as far as severe weather. In any case, still expecting activity to mostly end by 10 pm for all, with only some lingering showers through midnight. A warm and humid night on tap for the region with patchy fog developing. Lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Humid conditions continue on Friday with dew points generally in the mid 70s. With daytime temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s, the max heat index values will be in the upper 90s, possibly touching 100. A cold front approaches Friday afternoon, touching off another round of late day showers and thunderstorms, mainly over far western portions of the forecast area (see Key Message 2 for more). KEY MESSAGE 2...Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday night into Saturday. By Friday evening, convection is expected to be ongoing across the area as showers and thunderstorms develop out ahead of a cold front moving southward into the area. Similarly to Thursday, moisture is anticipated to increase ahead of the front, where PWAT values are progged to be in excess of 1.8 inches. This supports that any given shower or storm will have the ability to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding. As of now, the majority of our forecast area is highlighted in an MARGINAL risk (Level 1/4) for excessive rainfall. Held off on expanding the Flood Watch into Friday night due to uncertainty in where the heaviest rainfall will fall today. In terms of the severe weather threat, ML CAPE is expected to reach at least 1000 J/kg with bulk shear values around 30-35 kt. Given better frontal forcing, there looks to be another opportunity for severe weather. As of the 1730UTC/Day 2 update, SPC has upgraded the majority of our area into a MARGINAL risk (Level 1/5) for severe weather with the primary hazard being locally damaging winds. For Saturday, there remains a bit of uncertainty with respect to frontal progression through the area but guidance has trended a bit wetter overall. We now have PoPs in the 20-50% range for area north and west of the I-95 corridor, with PoPs in the 50-80% range for areas southeast of I-95. Again, there remains a flash flood threat on Saturday, primarily for the southern half of the area, which is highlighted in a MARGINAL risk for excessive rainfall. Temperatures will mainly be in the 80s. KEY MESSAGE 3...Drier and warmer conditions return by the end of the weekend into next week. By Sunday and into early next week, guidance is showing an expansive upper level ridge setting up over the northern High Plains. This will yield dry weather and mainly sunny/clear skies across the majority of the Mid-Atlantic region. Temperatures will be around normal for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, but will swing back above normal for Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...SHRA/TSRA will taper off at KMIV/KACY by 02Z. VFR, becoming MVFR or lower by or after 06Z as BR develops. Light S to nearly calm winds. Low confidence. Friday...Primarily VFR. Another round of SHRA/TSRA may impact the terminals in the late afternoon and at night, but only included VCTS in KABE/KRDG TAFs for now. W winds 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Friday night through Saturday...Prevailing VFR, however periods of sub-VFR conditions are possible. A chance for showers and thunderstorms which may cause locally gusty winds. Saturday night through Tuesday...VFR. No significant weather expected. && .MARINE... Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions through Friday. Southwest winds around 10 to 15 kt will turn west on Friday. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers and thunderstorms through this evening will result in heavy rain and potentially damaging wind gusts. VSBY restrictions in fog possible late tonight and Friday morning. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible late Friday afternoon. Outlook... Friday night through Saturday night...No marine headlines expected. Winds generally between 5-15 kt with seas around 2-3 feet. Sunday through Sunday night...SCA conditions possible. Winds generally between 10-20 kt with seas up to 5 feet. Monday through Tuesday...No marine headlines expected. Winds generally between 10-20 kt with seas around 3-4 feet. Rip Currents... For Friday, winds turn southwesterly, and the swell weakens. Thus, this should result in a LOW risk of rip currents for all beaches. For Saturday, winds turn northerly, and the swell remains weak. Thus, this should result in a LOW risk of rip currents for all beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ021-022-025. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Hoeflich/MPS/RCM AVIATION...DeSilva/MPS/RCM MARINE...DeSilva/MPS/RCM  734 FXUS66 KLOX 100035 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 535 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS...09/225 PM. Moderate heat impacts will continue into next week, though there will be slight cooling over the weekend. Monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will be possible starting Sunday. Temperatures will rise again on Tuesday and my reach Major Heat Risk levels, with the monsoonal moisture adding to the discomfort from the heat. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...09/309 PM. High pressure is currently centered over the area, and will drift towards the four corners region through the weekend. 500 mb heights over SoCal will gradually trend downwards each day but still remain above normal. Temperatures will generally remain warm through the weekend, with today being the warmest day followed by a slight cooling trend through Sunday inline with the 500 mb heights. Highs will top out between 5 to 10 degrees above normal during the short term forecast period. Humidity will increase starting late Saturday which will add to any heat discomfort. Heat Advisories are in effect until Tuesday morning (when the Extreme Heat Watch will go into effect) for many areas away from the coast including Downtown Los Angeles. Moderate HeatRisk is expected for areas in the Advisory, which is a moderate risk of heat-realted illness for those sensitive to heat or working outdoors. When the center of the high pressure system settles over the Great Basin area, southeasterly flow over SoCal will shuttle monsoonal moisture into the area. PWATs of nearly 1.5 will be possible across Los Angeles County, which is a considerable value. There will be a 10-20 percent chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening on starting Sunday, with the greatest chances for the mountains of Los Angles and Ventura Counties. Hazards with any storm may include lightning (fire starts possible) and brief flash flooding, though predictability at this point for any one location is low. Marine layer clouds are likely to be more widespread across the coasts and possibly Paso Robles each morning in the short term, and areas of dense fog will be possible especially along the Central Coast. Gusty onshore flow will occur in the afternoons and evening across the Antelope Valley and foothills, and elevated fire weather conditions will continue for this area as well. .LONG TERM (MON-THU)...09/311 PM. High pressure aloft will encompass much of the western half of the CONUS to start the extended periods, centered across the intermountain west. This will result in southeasterly flow across the local area, helping to steer in some monsoonal moisture around the periphery of this high over the course of next week. As this ridge expands to the southwest over the middle of next week, expect heights aloft to rise and for temperatures to climb further, with a potential for extreme heat across parts of the local area. With all this in mind, there have been no changes to the previous headlines with a heat advisory in effect through Tuesday (for moderate heat - a level 2 of 4) and an extreme heat watch for next Tuesday through Thursday when temperatures are expected to warm further. Regarding the monsoonal moisture, global models paint a fairly consistent picture that there should be some showers and thunderstorms across at least parts of the local area for several days. While the exact location and timing of convective activity several days out is uncertain, the most favored ares will be across the interior mountains and deserts each day from the late afternoon through evening hours, highly dependent on any embedded disturbances that could help force more widespread activity. At this time, we are thinking a 10-20% chance of a storm each day should cover this potential, with additional refinements as we get closer in time/certainty. Otherwise, the prolonged period of warm weather rounds out the rest of the story, with slightly above normal temperatures and noticeably more humid conditions both Monday and Tuesday, followed by a bump in temps over the middle to latter portion of the week that is currently covered by the aforementioned excessive heat watch. && .AVIATION...10/0034Z. At 0001Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1100 ft deep. The top of the inversion was around 5100 ft deep with a temperature of 27 C. High confidence in TAFs for the desert sites of LA County, with moderate to high confidence in KPRB, KSBA, KBUR and KVNY with a 30 percent chance of low clouds moving in overnight. LIFR conds possible at KPRB and KSBA, with IFR to MVFR for the LA County valley sites. Timing of CIGs arrival could differ by up to 2 hours from forecast times. Otherwise moderate confidence the remaining coastal sites, with LIFR conds likely north of Point Conception, IFR for Ventura and LA coastal sites. There is a 30% chance of MVFR conds for the LA coastal sites. KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. There is a 40 percent chc of no cigs. Moderate confidence that MVFR/IFR conds will arrive between 0300Z and 0600Z. Otherwise, timing may differ by +/- 2 hrs from TAF times. High confidence that any east wind component will be AOB 6kt. KBUR...MOderate to high confidence in TAF. with a 30% chance of IFR to MVFR CIGS between 10Z and 16Z. && .MARINE...09/152 PM. For the outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds are expected to continue through at least Saturday morning. Large 10-12 ft seas will subside late Friday night. SCA level NW-W winds, are expected to continue for the waters for the waters around Point Conception through tonight before starting to diminish late tonight into Saturday morning. Going into midday Saturday, SCA conditions are expected to come to an end for these waters and should remain well below for the weekend. For the inner waters south of Point Conception, conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels. && .BEACHES...09/152 PM. A south to southwest swell will continue to affect the coastal waters through next week. With the swell, the potential for larger surf and greater risk for rip currents will continue. High tides are expected to increase this weekend going into next week with Monday expected to be the highest tide of 7.0 to 7.6 ft above MLLW. There is the potential for some minor coastal flooding next week with the high tides and south swell. One thing that will need to be watched into next week will be the potential of a greater south to southwest swell from potential tropical development. Thunderstorms still continue to be possible starting Sunday and going through next week with a 10-20% chance. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 38-88-343>345-353-368-372-373-375>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through Thursday evening for zones 38-88-341>345-347>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Friday for zones 645-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT Saturday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Saturday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Schoenfeld/Rossi AVIATION...CC MARINE...SF BEACHES...SF SYNOPSIS...SR/RS weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  208 FXUS62 KCAE 100042 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 842 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated key message 1 to discuss diminishing convection tonight and light rain coming into the CSRA, then edited wording to focus to tomorrow. Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Hot and breezy conditions continue tomorrow with showers and isolated thunderstorms possible this evening and again tomorrow. - 2. A frontal boundary brings higher rain chances for the weekend followed by increasingly likely cooler temps. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Hot and breezy conditions continue tomorrow with showers and isolated thunderstorms possible this evening and again tomorrow. The isolated storms we saw this afternoon have generally diminished and moved out of the area. However, a few storms are approaching the western Midlands at this time, but expect those to fizzle out as the sun continues to set. A broader area of light rain is also moving into the CSRA at this time. There is some question of how far east this area makes it and how long it takes for it to diminishing. For now, upped the PoPs in the CSRA to account for this rain. After this activity winds down, the rest of the night is expected to be dry. The mid to upper ridge axis has pushed off shore this evening as an upper trough digs into the Gulf Coast states. However, expect hot and breezy conditions again on Friday with high temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees and heat index values between 100 and 105 degrees. While below our Heat Advisory criteria, continue to exercise caution if spending an extended period of time outdoors during peak heating. In terms of thunderstorm coverage tomorrow, convection is expected to be similar to today. The SPC has put the forecast area in a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe weather tomorrow, citing damaging wind gusts as the primary severe hazard. This is due to the presence of an Inverted-V signature on modeled soundings in addition to sufficient CAPE for stronger storms to develop. Key Message 2: A frontal boundary brings higher rain chances for the weekend followed by increasingly likely cooler temps. A frontal boundary draped over the Upper Midwest early this afternoon is forecast to move southward in response to a shortwave moving from the Great Lakes into the Southeast through the weekend. As the front and associated upper trough approach the area, more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity can be anticipated for the weekend. This activity could linger into early next week as latest guidance indicates that the front stalls out near the area. In addition to the increased rain chances, it looks increasingly likely that we'll see cooler temperatures. The NBM interquartile range (IQR) on Monday ranges from the low to mid 80s to around 90F for the area. Given the recent hot weather, the NBM takes that into account and will likely have a warm bias. So, I would not be surprised if we end up toward the cooler end of the IQR. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Shower and storm activity is diminishing across the region this evening with no further restrictions expected at any TAF sites; showers-storms remain confined to central GA and coastal SC. Winds have consequently weakened to less than 10 knots across the area as well. Mid-level cloud cover will linger overnight as a result. More of the same is expected on Friday with breezy west-southwest winds and scattered showers-storms developing by mid-afternoon; only running a prob30 for now given low confidence in timing. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing chances for afternoon storms this weekend and into early next week. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...7/29 AVIATION...42  805 FXUS65 KRIW 100053 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 653 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few lingering showers and storms will taper off by 10 PM MDT. An isolated wind gust to 50 mph may occur with these showers and storms. - Record high temperatures are likely this weekend and possibly early next week with some all time record high temperatures possible. The hottest day will be Sunday. - Very low humidity will bring elevated fire weather Friday into early next week. Critical fire weather is possible in northern Wyoming Sunday afternoon for the northern Bighorn Basin and Cody Foothills. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1203 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Thunderstorms have started to develop over the Winds as many of the HiRes models have suggested from this morning. These will continue to build and begin to push east across the Wind River Basin towards 2-3PM before pushing into eastern Fremont to Natrona Counties before exiting by 7PM this evening. The primary hazard continues to be gusty outflows, not quite as strong as yesterday, up to 40-50 mph as dewpoint depressions are a bit less. Otherwise, hot temperatures still on the way for Friday and over the weekend, with Sunday the hottest afternoon. A excessive heat watch has been issued for Saturday through Monday with widespread triple digits expected for many across the CWA. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 151 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 We still have a few light showers in central portions of Wyoming early this morning as we still have a bit of CAPE in the atmosphere. Nothing heavy, and barely any lightning, just a few showers. At this point, any amount of moisture is a good thing. And it looks like it will be another day of convection. There could be some this morning though, especially in portions of Johnson and Natrona County where guidance is showing some CAPE this morning, so we added around a 1 in 5 chance of a shower, it may end up just being virga though. Otherwise, the trend of decreasing coverage of convection continues as precipitable water values continue to drop. Again, the main chance will be East of the Divide with areas to the west largely dry with less than a 1 in 10 chance. For once, we don't have any kind of risk from the Storm Prediction Center. The main threat will be, as it always is this time of year, strong wind gusts. Models soundings continue to show inverted V signatures and with some dew point depressions approaching 50 degrees, wind gusts of 50 mph will be possible with any shower or thunderstorm. This looks like an earlier show with most showers ending after sunset and all over by midnight. Temperatures should be similar to yesterday, quite warm but fairly normal for July. Tomorrow is where we begin to transition from thunderstorms to heat. Drier air will continue to push eastward across the area, dropping precipitable water levels even more. There may be just enough moisture and instability to squeeze out very isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, this would be mainly in Johnson County where a bit more moisture will linger and possibly the mountains with a bit of high elevation heat source. Coverage will be very sparse though, with a capital V and a capital S, less than 5 percent of the area. Temperatures will also begin to rise, approaching 100 in the warm spots like the Bighorn Basin and widespread 90s East of the Divide in the lower elevations. This is hot, but nothing unusually for the middle of July, climatologically the warmest time of the year. Things really change on Saturday. Strong ridging over the desert southwest will begin to build northward, with 500 millibar heights reaching 5970 meters by days end. At the same time, 700 millibar temperatures will rise to as high as 21 celsius. This means a very hot day. Reasoning for today remains the same, most locations below 5200 feet East of the Divide have at least a 1 in 2 chance of high temperatures over 100 degrees, with the warmest spots like from Thermopolis to Greybull in the Bighorn Basin have an almost 100 percent chance. Some record high temperatures are certainly possible on this day. And, with the warm temperatures aloft and much drier air moving in, the chance of convection will be basically zero. But this is only the appetizer, with the main course likely to be on Sunday. This is when the ridge will be centered over Wyoming, with some models giving 500 millibar heights as high as 6000 meters. The 700 millibar temperatures may climb as high as 24 degrees celsius. All this adds up to a very hot day, possibly one we haven't seen in a long time. The NBA ensemble gives a greater than 1 in 2 chance of 100 degrees in all locations below 6000 feet, with an almost 100 percent chance below 5500 feet. And this includes some places that don;t see 100. Rock Springs has around a 3 in 5 chance of over 100, and even Jackson has a 1 in 3 chance. The lower elevations of the Bighorn Basin have at least a 4 out of 5 chance of high temperatures over 105 degrees on this day. And the warmest spots, like Greybull and Basin, have a 1 in 2 chance of reaching 110. This is the most likely day to see all time record highs broken, especially in locations that have a shorter period of record. As for heat highlights, I had mixed thoughts on this. The main reason is the humidity, or more specifically the lack of it. The lower elevations will have widespread single digit relative humidity, with some locations falling as a 3 percent on Sunday. This has an impact on the apparent temperatures, which is what we base heat highlights on. For one, the apparent temperature will be below the actual temperature by 5 or 10 degrees. Also, with the dry air, almost all locations should cool off at least into the 60s at night. The one place I could see an excessive heat watch is the Bighorn Basin, but this would mainly be for Sunday. Heat advisories look more likely at this time, there is still time so we will punt to day shift to take another look. And there is one more concern for Sunday. The NBM ensemble is giving a greater than 1 in 2 chance of wind gusts over 30 mph Sunday afternoon north of a Meeteetse to Worland to Kaycee line. With the extremely dry conditions, we may have to consider Fire Weather Highlights for Sunday afternoon. There should be some slight, and emphasis on slight. cooling on Monday, be probably only by 3 to 5 degrees. One hundred degree high temperatures will still be very widespread across the lower elevations. One this day, there may be just enough moisture to come around the backside of the ridge for isolated storms in the western mountains, but the chance is only around 1 out of 10. Chances of convection then slowly increase each day, starting mainly in western Wyoming on Tuesday and then spreading eastward as the ridge slowly moves eastward and moisture rotates in around the backside of it. Temperatures will cool at first in the west, but likely remain well above normal through the forecast period. Very hot temperatures continue Tuesday before some cooling moves in for midweek East of the Divide. But even with some cooling, temperatures should remain well above normal through most of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 454 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions prevail at all terminals through 00Z/Saturday. Ongoing convection wanes by 02Z/Friday, with only lingering mid- level clouds and a few showers until 06Z/Friday. Convective gusty outflow wind 35-45kts remains the primary hazard until just before sunset. However, brief MVFR of less than 30 minutes, is possible at KCPR where low-level moisture is more favorable. The mid-level moisture that has been aiding diurnal convective development diminishes Friday as drier air arrives from the west. A few Friday afternoon showers develop over the Absaroka, Wind River, and Bighorn Mountains, but unfavorable dynamics and limited moisture should lead to these fizzling quickly as they try to move into the lower elevations. Westerly wind 10-18kts decreases by sunset at terminals west of the Continental Divide. These same terminals see 8-15kt winds begin again early Friday afternoon. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday evening for WYZ003>006-010-011-013-016>020-023-025>030. && $$ UPDATE...Lowe DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...CNJ