281 FXUS61 KBTV 100101 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 901 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 851 PM EDT Thursday... A Flood Warning is in effect for the Barre and Montpelier area until 1045 PM today due to heavy rain showers and thunderstorms passing through central Vermont this evening and producing widespread ponding and low-lying area flooding. Around 1.50-3.00 inches were reported to have fallen in this area over the past 24 hours. We anticipate rain to lessen into the overnight hours, but additional light rain is possible in the immediate future. Please do not drive on flooded roadways. Have adjusted QPF forecast to reflect the current thinking, with 0.10-0.60 inches of rainfall possible through Friday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 329 PM EDT Thursday... 1. Showers with scattered thunderstorms will continue through this evening, becoming fewer and less heavy overnight into tomorrow. Localized heavy rain and a few instances of damaging wind gusts will be possible. 2. Following a beautiful weekend, chances for showers and thunderstorms return next week, primarily in the Tuesday or Wednesday timeframe, associated with a short period of hot weather. && .DISCUSSION... As of 252 PM EDT Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1: A quasi-stationary front is situated near the International Border oriented west to east this afternoon. A pre-frontal trough is promoting numerous showers, focused across northern New York and gradually expanding across northern Vermont through this evening. As of this hour, surface based instability has reached into the 1300-2000 J/kg range across western Vermont and much of northern New York, which has been sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. The severe threat favors weak small bowing segments producing damaging winds; otherwise heavy rain and lightning are expected to be the primary impacts with thunderstorms. Rainfall rates have been observed near 1"/hour in southern Ontario upstream from our area early this afternoon. Noting that these showers are following the mean flow vector, training cells over northern New York near the International Border will lead to locally heavy rainfall amounts. Pwats in the range of 1.8 - 2" will be present through this evening across much of northern New York and northwestern Vermont, in addition to deep warm layer cloud depths. Given antecedent dryness and the lack of persistence of heavy rainfall rates, we don't think flash flooding risk is high enough for concern, but cannot rule out an isolated instance. As we near July 10th, and with the potential for some brief training storms today, we wanted to say this event is not expected to be anywhere near the flooding potential of recent years. While localized heavy rains will be possible, widespread or damaging flooding potential is not expected. Showers look to be progressive and should not sit over any one area even if multiple rounds of showers are possible. The cold front will slide southward into Friday morning just far enough south of the area to minimize potential for additional showers. Showers are possible in southern Vermont, with perhaps some sprinkles and light showers until midday Friday. Behind the front, cooler and drier northerly air will help temperatures fall to the mid 70s to low 80s with dewpoints near 50 by Saturday afternoon. Some fog may be possible in the usual river valleys Friday night due to recent rains and clearing skies. KEY MESSAGE 2: Following another extended tranquil and comfortable weather period Saturday through Monday with seasonable temperatures trending a bit warmer, active weather returns sometime in the Tuesday to Wednesday period. The large upper level ridge that will be responsible for extremeheat in the northern Plains states will expand eastward Monday into Tuesday to usher in hotter air into our region. Given the source region, we aren't expecting particularly humid air, however, and the latest guidance would suggest just under Heat Advisory criteria. The combination of this heat and strong signals for an impressive cold front associated with a deep low pressure system passing through eastern Canada will set the stage for organized showers and thunderstorms. As of now, the risk of severe thunderstorms is relatively low given uncertainty in the timing, but the setup is favorable for good overlap of CAPE and shear. The ECMWF and some other ML guidance is favoring Wednesday, while the GFS and a multi-model blend favors late Tuesday. Stay tuned! && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 00Z Saturday...Showers with scattered thunderstorms will continue through this evening, becoming fewer and less heavy overnight into Friday. Localized heavy rain will be possible. After the shower activity dwindles, patchy fog will develop as some moisture will become trapped near the surface. Already some sites are reporting ceilings below 1000 feet above ground level. Widespread IFR conditions are most likely between 05Z-14Z Friday. Outlook... Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Storm DISCUSSION...Kutikoff AVIATION...Storm  207 FXUS64 KJAN 100100 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 800 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous levels (limited to elevated) of heat will return Thursday and persist into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Persistent sub-tropical ridging stretching across the southwest will maintain abnormal heat and humidity through the end of the workweek, the inclusion of a heat advisory will remain in effect for Bolivar/Leflore/Sunflower/Washington through 8pm tonight. Afternoon high temperatures will remain a few degrees above climo normals, combined with hotter than normal overnight lows and high humidity, we will continue to indicate the risk for elevated (level 2/4) and limited (level 1/4) risk areas for dangerous heat stress in the GWHO into this weekend. For today and tomorrow a broad area of low-level ridging will keep this warm airmass in place, resulting in a typical pattern of diurnal isolated to scattered afternoon convection./KP/ Saturday through Wednesday: A potent upper-lvl ridge will build and traverse over the Northern Plains, resulting in downstream troughing over the Mid-MS Valley. The trough will slowly push a frontal boundary towards the southeast through the weekend and into next week. As the boundary progress towards the area, rain chances will be likely to widespread (70-85%) with the greatest coverage on Sunday and Monday. Rain will stick around through mid- week as the boundary gradually moves over the area. With the ongoing rain potential, heat relief is expected as heat indices drop below 105 degrees. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 759 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR conditions and winds from the south generally less than 10 kts expected to prevail at the TAF sites through the period. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 75 94 75 93 / 10 0 10 20 Meridian 74 94 75 94 / 20 10 10 40 Vicksburg 76 94 76 94 / 10 0 10 10 Hattiesburg 75 95 76 94 / 20 20 10 60 Natchez 75 95 75 94 / 0 10 10 40 Greenville 76 95 77 94 / 0 0 0 20 Greenwood 76 95 76 94 / 0 0 10 40 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025-034. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ KP/NF  566 FXZS60 NSTU 100106 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 206 PM SST Thu Jul 9 2026 .Short term... [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...Thunderstorm activity associated with a trough to the northeast continues to move east as a high pressure system builds near New Zealand. However, low cumulus clouds are maintaining widespread showers across the territory as moisture from the edge of the trough remains in the area. The potential for flash flooding has diminished as the thunderstorms have shifted further east, thus canceling the Flash Flood Watch for American Samoa. Rainfall is expected to diminish tonight into Friday morning. By Friday, expect scattered showers and southerly winds of 10 to 15 mph due to the high pressure system. Cool and stable weather is possible over the weekend as southerly winds usher in cool air from the south. .Long term... [SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...As the trough continues to exit the region, the aforementioned high pressure will dominate the weather pattern through next week. South winds of 10 to 15 mph will remain through Sunday, before shifting southeast as the high pressure moves east. The building high pressure system will strengthen winds from Monday through Thursday. Showers embedded within the trade wind flow are possible for the long term forecast. && .Marine... A High Surf Advisory and Small Craft Advisory remain in effect as a south swell continues to move in the area. Expect elevated surf and strong rip currents to persist through at least tonight. Seas are forecast to fall below advisory thresholds by then. However, south winds up to 15 knots my produce choppy seas through the weekend. Although conditions will be better for mariners for this timeframe, choppy seas may still be a nuisance for travel. When trade winds return on Monday, a small craft advisory may warrant as wind speeds up to 20 knots will meet the advisory criteria. Rough ocean conditions will persist through the rest of the forecast period. .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory Small Craft Advisory && $$ TM  980 FXUS63 KJKL 100111 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 911 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms continue at times into the weekend. - Heavy rainfall is possible through the first half of this weekend, especially Friday and Saturday, with a threat of isolated to scattered flash flooding. - A Flood Watch is in effect for increased flash flood potential across the area through early Sunday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 911 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026 Precip has died out for the time being. However, showers/thunderstorms are on the increase again over central and western KY and should make their move in our direction during the night. Have adjusted the POP for the current lull, but allowed for an increase from the west with time. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 344 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026 At 19Z, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to work across the area, with periods of heavy rain occurring within them. These pop-up showers and storms will continue over the next few hours, disipating with the loss of diurnal heating near or around sunset. Temperatures around the area are generally in the mid 80s where convection hasn't tampered with the air, otherwise areas that have seen rain/storms sit in the upper 70s to low 80s. Temperatures are expected to cool into the mid to upper 60s. Patchy valley fog may develop late this evening before mixing out Friday morning. Surface high pressure remains just east of the state, with a shortwave over the Ozarks embedded within a positively tilted trough. A surface cold front also extends across Western potions of the Ohio Valley, extending back towards the Central Plains. As the embedded shortwave continues to approach Kentucky through this evening, 500- mb heights are expected to fall in advance of it. After a lull in shower and storm activity this evening, chances increase in coverage and intensity. As high pressure sinks south of the area, broad flow around it will continue transporting moisture rich air from southwest of the forecast area. During the day Friday, model PWATs increase across the area, close to if not exceeding 2 inches in places. These values fall within the 90th percentile of climatological normals when looking at ECMWF Mean PWATs. Showers and thunderstorms in this environment have the potential to produce gusty winds, and locally heavy or torrential rainfall which could lead to instances of flash flooding. The WPC continues to have the area under a slight risk for excessive rainfall exceeding local flash flood guidance. The probability of seeing enough rainfall to exceed flash flood guidance remains across the Upper Cumberland River Basin (25% chance). Later Friday afternoon and evening high pressure over SW CONUS will build in coverage and intensity. With the high amplitude ridge developing, the positively shortwave trough will propagate southeastward towards the KY-TN areas of the Ohio Valley. Temperatures Friday are expected to warm into the lower 80s before cooling into the upper 60s Friday evening. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 249 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026 The period begins with a westerly mid-level jet stream across the Ohio River Valley, including eastern Kentucky, ahead of a mid-level low/trough and stacked surface low over northeastern Missouri and western Illinois, with this feature only moving to the Lower Ohio River Valley by Sunday morning as the circulation becomes detached from the upper flow and becomes trapped by a massive upper high that develops across the western and northern CONUS late this weekend into next week. With continued warm advection and a quasi-stationary front across the area, a risk for flash flooding with the potential for rounds of heavy rain will remain through much of Saturday into Saturday night. Models strengthen this upper high to ~602-dm centered somewhere over the MO Valley through early next week before it begins to gradually weaken in place through the middle of next week. Most models are in agreement in suppressing the remnants of the trapped mid-level low and associated warm advection southward with time, with a gradual diminishing of PoPs and Sky cover from north to south from the second half of this weekend through the middle of next week as drier northeasterly mid-level flow advects in from the northeast. A marginal flash flood threat may persist across far southern/southeastern parts of the forecast area into Sunday, where better instability and moisture may linger along with relatively weak flow aloft supporting slow storm motions. The gradual drying and clearing trend through the period will also support an increasing trend for high temperatures through the period, but with highs still within a few degrees of normal in the mid to upper 80s by the end of the period, with lows in the 60s each morning. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 911 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026 Dry and quiet weather with VFR conditions prevailed at the start of the period. However, showers/thunderstorms were on the increase over western and central KY and will make their way east during the night. The coverage of precip should peak over the JKL forecast area overnight and early Friday, with IFR conditions probable at times. After a brief lull, more showers/thunderstorms area expected from around mid day into the afternoon. Although, confidence drops off as to how that next round evolves. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GINNICK LONG TERM...CMC AVIATION...HAL  036 FXUS61 KCTP 100111 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 911 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... *The flash flood and severe risk has diminished this evening, with the Flood Watch allowed to expire as of 8PM. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unsettled pattern continues through the first half of the weekend, with some flash flooding and severe potential. 2) Trending warmer for the first half of the weekend, with above average temperatures expected by Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Unsettled pattern continues through the first half of the weekend, with some flash flooding and severe potential. The flash flood and severe threat for this evening have largely diminished, allowing the Flood Watch in effect across the southern tier to be expired as of 8PM EDT. Heavier rainfall today will bring an additional round of flash flooding concerns tomorrow with more rainfall in the forecast. Recent runs of hi-res model guidance continues to indicate some potential for shower and storm development ahead of an approaching cold front. The main uncertainty based on models will be the coverage of showers/storms during the afternoon hours with the bulk of model guidance indicating increasing coverage by the late afternoon and into the evening hours across much of central Pennsylvania. HREF ensemble guidance depicts PWATs generally in the 1.50-1.75" range across northern and western halves of Pennsylvania with values reaching into the 1.75-2.00" range across southern and eastern halves of Pennsylvania. In terms of climatologically, this puts much of the area between the 75th and 90th percentile in PWAT values for July 10th, which outlines that storms will be be efficient rainfall makes and could bring localized rainfall values (based on HREF 6 hour PMMs) between 1-2" in areas where soils are already saturated with more recent heavy rainfall. After that, a few showers remain possible on Saturday across the southern half of the area as the cold front will be very slow to move to our south. Sunday looks like a much drier day as the front finally moves off to the south and a strong ridge develops over the middle of the country. ---------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Trending warmer for the first half of the weekend, with above average temperatures expected by Wednesday. Drier conditions are expected to prevail for the first half of the week with the aforementioned strong ridge expected to develop over the middle of the country. Increasing heat is progged by LREF ensemble guidance across central Pennsylvania although there remains some uncertainty with respect to how warm temperatures and/or humidity get across the region. Current forecast of the latter half of the week outlines above average temperatures Wednesday and into the end of our forecast timeframe which matches with CPC's 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook that highlights odds tipping towards above average temperatures across all of Pennsylvania. Chances of rain begin to increase into the latter half of the weekend as temperatures and humidity increase; however, quite a bit of time to hone in on exact placement of showers/storms that will likely change as we approach that timeframe. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Convection will downtrend this evening as trough axis over central Pennsylvania progresses eastward & instability wanes with the loss of sunlight. A decaying line of showers and embedded thunderstorms may bring brief wind gusts (20 kts) to KUNV/KIPT around 01Z as its outflow boundary moves through, with lower confidence in occurrence of lighting or visibility restrictions given the weakening trend. Otherwise, VFR ceilings are expected for tonight, with areas of mist/fog possible due to recent rainfall and ample moisture in place. Higher confidence in overnight restrictions from mist/fog are over the Allegheny Plateau (KBFD) and portions of the Poconos & Lower Susquehanna Valley (more so KLNS than KMDT), with patchier fog across the central mountain terminals (KJST/KAOO/KUNV/KIPT). A few showers may develop within this moist environment tonight, though sparse coverage (<30%) precludes TAF inclusions at this time. VFR is favored on Friday, though another shortwave moving across the Mid-Atlantic may bring intermittent visibility restrictions due to showers/thunderstorms. A weaker wave of showers and a few thunderstorms is expected to cross our southern/central (KJST/KAOO/KUNV/KMDT/KLNS) terminals during the morning & early afternoon, with lower confidence in lightning & restrictions from this activity. Higher confidence in scattered thunderstorms, visibility restrictions, and locally gusty winds will be from the activity that develops during the afternoon around KBFD, which will progress south and east across the Commonwealth into the evening. Convective activity will once again trend downward around sunset, with lower certainty with regards to impacts for KMDT/KLNS downstream of the initial storms. Outlook... Sat...Reduced chance and more limited coverage of PM showers/t-storm. Sun-Tue...Mainly VFR/no sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Beaty KEY MESSAGES...Beaty DISCUSSION...Beaty AVIATION...Teare  011 FXHW60 PHFO 100131 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 331 PM HST Thu Jul 9 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure far north of the state will continue to produce breezy trades into the weekend. One batch of trade wind showers will spread across mainly Maui and the Big Island tonight with a quick downpour or two possible windward. Another increase in moisture will bring enhanced showers to mostly windward and mauka locations Saturday night into Sunday. Otherwise fairly typical trade wind weather is expected. && .DISCUSSION... Very large surface high 1035 mb or so meanders over the far NE Pac the next 10 days, keeping trades breezy with slight slackening expected by the middle of next week. One bactch of enhanced showers is rolling into Maui and the BI, associated with higher PW around 1.75" moving in...enough for a couple of quick windward and mauka downpours. Oahu should be on N fringes of this moisture convergence later tonight and Fri AM. Still another shower area progged near the islands in the ensemble means Sat night into Sun AM. Ridging persists aloft, so nothing too unusual expected with either of these. Otherwise, typical windward and mauka showers expected with PW trending near normal thru midweek next week. However...the latest ensemble runs and current MJO phase suggest we keep an close eye on the tropics to our S and SE the over the next couple of weeks. There is more agreement in the long range than I'd like to see, that the ITCZ to the S and SE of the islands will become even more active. The subtropical jet shifts N of the islands in a week or so, anticyclonic flow builds aloft SE of the islands, and deeper tropical moisture and much- below- normal surface pressure gradually get established to our S and shift northward. Just a little tap on the shoulder to remind us that while it is quiet over the islands for the time being, we are getting farther into Hurricane Season with what is expected to be a very strong El Nino continuing to build. && .AVIATION... Moderate to breezy trades will persist across the Hawaiian Islands, bringing in pockets of enhanced low-level showers across predominately windward and mauka areas. Expect VFR conditions to prevail across most locations, with occasional localized MVFR conditions in association with shower activity. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration above 2500 feet for windward Kauai, Oahu, Maui, and the Big Island. This is expected to persist throughout the period as shower activity continues, even if showers prove to be intermittent at times. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence over and downwind of terrain for all islands. This AIRMET will likely continue through the next several days. && .MARINE... Strong high pressure centered north of the state will remain nearly stationary over the forecast period driving fresh to strong trade winds across the entire coastal waters. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect through Friday afternoon for all Hawaiian waters. Trades will remain fresh to strong through the weekend so the SCA may need to be extended but a few leeward zones might drop off. The current small medium-period south-southwest (190-200 degrees) swell will gradually decline through Friday. A small to moderate, long- period southwest swell (220 degrees) is expected to fill in Saturday into early next week, but due to its Tasman source, could be more inconsistent than the current swell. Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the forecast period as fresh to strong trades hold. A series of small, moderate- to long-period west (270 to 280 degrees) swells are expected to arrive late Friday and hold into early next week, sourced from Typhoon Bavi in the far western Pacific. Surf along north-facing shores is expected to remain flat to tiny with no significant swells forecast from the north or northwest. Looking ahead, higher than normal high tides will be possible beginning during the latter half of this weekend. Interests immediately along the coasts in low-lying or vulnerable areas should continue to monitor forecasts for possible coastal flooding due to the King Tides from Sunday through the first half of next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for all Hawaiian waters- && $$ DISCUSSION...R Ballard AVIATION...Evans MARINE...Shigesato  125 FXUS61 KPHI 100134 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 934 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe thunderstorm and flood watches have been cancelled. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop late Friday. 2) Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday night into Saturday. 3) Drier and warmer conditions return by the end of the weekend into next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop late Friday. Storms and showers are dwindling, and the severe and flood watches have been completely cancelled. A warm and humid night on tap for the region with patchy fog developing. Lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Humid conditions continue on Friday with dew points generally in the mid 70s. With daytime temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s, the max heat index values will be in the upper 90s, possibly touching 100. A cold front approaches Friday afternoon, touching off another round of late day showers and thunderstorms, mainly over far western portions of the forecast area (see Key Message 2 for more). KEY MESSAGE 2...Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday night into Saturday. By Friday evening, convection is expected to be ongoing across the area as showers and thunderstorms develop out ahead of a cold front moving southward into the area. Similarly to Thursday, moisture is anticipated to increase ahead of the front, where PWAT values are progged to be in excess of 1.8 inches. This supports that any given shower or storm will have the ability to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding. As of now, the majority of our forecast area is highlighted in an MARGINAL risk (Level 1/4) for excessive rainfall. Held off on expanding the Flood Watch into Friday night due to uncertainty in where the heaviest rainfall will fall today. In terms of the severe weather threat, ML CAPE is expected to reach at least 1000 J/kg with bulk shear values around 30-35 kt. Given better frontal forcing, there looks to be another opportunity for severe weather. As of the 1730UTC/Day 2 update, SPC has upgraded the majority of our area into a MARGINAL risk (Level 1/5) for severe weather with the primary hazard being locally damaging winds. For Saturday, there remains a bit of uncertainty with respect to frontal progression through the area but guidance has trended a bit wetter overall. We now have PoPs in the 20-50% range for area north and west of the I-95 corridor, with PoPs in the 50-80% range for areas southeast of I-95. Again, there remains a flash flood threat on Saturday, primarily for the southern half of the area, which is highlighted in a MARGINAL risk for excessive rainfall. Temperatures will mainly be in the 80s. KEY MESSAGE 3...Drier and warmer conditions return by the end of the weekend into next week. By Sunday and into early next week, guidance is showing an expansive upper level ridge setting up over the northern High Plains. This will yield dry weather and mainly sunny/clear skies across the majority of the Mid-Atlantic region. Temperatures will be around normal for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, but will swing back above normal for Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...SHRA/TSRA will taper off at KMIV/KACY by 02Z. VFR, becoming MVFR or lower by or after 06Z as BR develops. Light S to nearly calm winds. Low confidence. Friday...Primarily VFR. Another round of SHRA/TSRA may impact the terminals in the late afternoon and at night, but only included VCTS in KABE/KRDG TAFs for now. W winds 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Friday night through Saturday...Prevailing VFR, however periods of sub-VFR conditions are possible. A chance for showers and thunderstorms which may cause locally gusty winds. Saturday night through Tuesday...VFR. No significant weather expected. && .MARINE... Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions through Friday. Southwest winds around 10 to 15 kt will turn west on Friday. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers and thunderstorms through this evening will result in heavy rain and potentially damaging wind gusts. VSBY restrictions in fog possible late tonight and Friday morning. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible late Friday afternoon. Outlook... Friday night through Saturday night...No marine headlines expected. Winds generally between 5-15 kt with seas around 2-3 feet. Sunday through Sunday night...SCA conditions possible. Winds generally between 10-20 kt with seas up to 5 feet. Monday through Tuesday...No marine headlines expected. Winds generally between 10-20 kt with seas around 3-4 feet. Rip Currents... For Friday, winds turn southwesterly, and the swell weakens. Thus, this should result in a LOW risk of rip currents for all beaches. For Saturday, winds turn northerly, and the swell remains weak. Thus, this should result in a LOW risk of rip currents for all beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Hoeflich/MPS/RCM AVIATION...DeSilva/MPS/RCM MARINE...DeSilva/MPS/RCM  146 FXUS62 KTAE 100135 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 935 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 934 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Rain chances will remain low through Friday night but an increase in convective coverage is expected over the weekend with widespread coverage early next week. When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors! - Above average temperatures are expected through Saturday. Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in air- conditioned places, wear light clothing, and know the signs of heat stress and illnesses. && .UPDATE... Issued at 934 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Updates to the forecast mainly involved adjusting PoPs for the rest of this evening to account for ongoing convection north of the U.S. 82 corridor in Georgia. No other changes. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Friday) Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Below normal rain chances will be in place through this period as high pressure dominates. While temperatures will remain above normal, heat indices will not reach advisory levels. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The Atlantic ridge will weaken across the region allowing convective coverage to return to normal on Saturday. A positively- tilted upper level trough and attendant surface front will settle into and eventually stall over the Southeast. This will tap into a very moist air mass with PWATs well over 2 inches to generate widespread showers and storms from Sunday through Tuesday. A couple inches of rain can be expected in many areas during this period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 708 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible to continue into the late evening as a broken line may extend south through Georgia, potentially moving over the ABY and VLD terminals. A thunderstorm may bubble up within the next hour in the region of DHN from the sea breeze and other outflow boundaries that passed through this afternoon. Overnight, dry conditions with light southwesterly winds are expected. A couple of showers/thunderstorms are possible for ECP and DHN tomorrow afternoon, as noted with a PROB30 group. Overall coverage is expected to be lower with VFR conditions for all TAF sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The summertime Atlantic ridge axis will shift north on Friday and Saturday bringing lighter and more variable winds. After a brief break in early morning convection tonight, a wetter pattern will begin to develop over the weekend and with multiple days of widespread shower and storm activity expected early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 There are little to no fire weather concerns in sight, typical of mid summer. Then chances for widespread wetting rain will increase over the weekend and be particularly high early next week. Fog Concerns and Other Remarks...No widespread fog is expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Lower than normal rainfall chances appear likely through the end of the work week before coverage increases over the weekend and through early next week. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 2.5 inches are forecast through early next week. However, flooding is not expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 76 96 75 96 / 10 10 10 50 Panama City 81 92 80 93 / 10 10 10 20 Dothan 75 95 75 95 / 10 2010 40 Albany 75 96 75 96 / 20 10 10 20 Valdosta 76 97 75 97 / 10 0 10 20 Cross City 76 97 76 97 / 0 10 10 40 Apalachicola 80 91 79 91 / 0 10 10 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wool LONG TERM....Wool AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...Wool FIRE WEATHER...Wool HYDROLOGY...Wool