129 FXUS66 KMTR 212208 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 308 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 308 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Temperatures will be close to or below normal into the beginning of next week - Warm and dry conditions above 1000ft persist into the weekend && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 308 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 (This evening through Saturday night) The forecast is on repeat today. Satellite imagery shows high clouds streaming overhead and the stratus a bit more dispersed along the coast. Expect these conditions to continue this afternoon, with the marine layer making a return later this evening and overnight. Guidance shows the marine layer should be around 1000-1500ft across our service area, which should lead to another night and morning of cloudy skies for the majority of the valleys. Low clouds continue to clear by mid to late morning, with a few high clouds potentially lingering into Saturday. With stratus clearing potentially a bit earlier and less high clouds, highs should be similar to Thursday, perhaps a few degrees warmer. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 308 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 (Sunday through next Thursday) The extended forecast looks similar, as we remain caught in the quasi-zonal to weak troughing while high pressure holds to the east. Temperatures should cool a few degrees on Sunday and then moderate into early next week. Models and ensembles show ridging trying to build slightly to the west, which would lead to warming for mid to late next week. Some caveats to what might happen will be the Pacific. The Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center shows three potential disturbances well south of Baja. Could influence how the high behaves. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 AM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Currently have a mix of IFR to VFR ceilings due to patchy stratus across our region. VFR conditions are expected to prevail this afternoon into the early evening hours. HAF is an exception as they may have a couple hours of VFR scattered cloud decks in the early afternoon before shifting back to IFR ceilings. Moderate to fresh onshore breezes around 10 to 15 kt expected through the day and ease overnight. The marine layer returns this evening impacting coastal sites first before filling in over inland terminals. Low to medium confidence on the exact stratus arrival as it is dependent on where the upper level low sets up during the day. Currently, all TAF sites are expected to develop IFR to MVFR ceilings, with coastal sites having a high chance of dropping to LIFR in the overnight hours. Vicinity of SFO...Stratus is beginning to mix out of the SF Bay as moderate onshore breezes increase. VFR through the afternoon with occasional gusts around 20-25 kt possible. Winds remain around 10 kt overnight. Medium confidence on the timing of IFR ceilings as they may arrive as early as sunset. The marine stratus is expected to linger until late Saturday morning. SFO Bridge Approach...Ceilings that develop may not be as low as SFO and clear before SFO does. Otherwise, similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus is receding to the coastline resulting in VFR conditions through the afternoon. Onshore winds will be diurnally driven this TAF period. The marine layer holds on strong as it returns with IFR ceilings this evening around 6-7 PM PDT. Medium confidence that ceilings will drop to LIFR overnight (OVC003-004), but there is still uncertainty regarding the exact timing and duration of LIFR conditions. If LIFR ceilings develop, they are likely to impact visibility and linger at the terminals through mid Saturday morning. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Wednesday)Issued at 308 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Widespread moderate to fresh northwest breezes prevail through the weekend with slight to moderate seas. Locally strong breezes with occasional near gale force gusts are expected in the coastal jet regions of Point Sur and Point Reyes. Hazardous conditions for small crafts are expected this afternoon for the bay waters and immediate coastal waters. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Navarrete MARINE...Navarrete Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  784 FXUS63 KICT 212215 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 515 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few thunderstorms possible late this afternoon/evening; better chances late tonight into Saturday morning - Additional storm chances, especially at night, this weekend into next week - Temperatures remain near or above normal && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 As of 2 PM Friday afternoon, an amplified midlevel pattern remains across the CONUS with troughing across the eastern US and ridging across the western half. This particular pattern leaves KS within a northwest flow regime with the core of the ridge southwest of the state across the Four Corners region. A low and midlevel baroclinic zone extends from western SD through portions of eastern KS. Regional radar reveals a cluster of thunderstorm activity across portions of central and eastern NE. This is activity is being further enhanced by a 40-50 kt midlevel speed max diving southeast across SD/NE. The downstream across northern KS seems quite unfavorable for storm maintenance with considerable convective inhibition. Latest mesoanalysis reveals 150-200 J/kg of inhibition. As a result, short range guidance lends little help with how this convection will evolve into KS. Given the lack of well-established, deep-convection combined with the increasing convective inhibition into KS, hedging to a mostly dry afternoon/evening across the forecast area. Short term satellite/radar trends will need to be monitored. Thunderstorm chances are expected to increase late tonight into Saturday morning as portions of northern/eastern KS remain within the low/level baroclinic zone. A strengthening LLJ of 30-35 kt should provide a focal point for additional storm development from western into central NE. Mean storm motions are expected to be towards the southeast, bringing storm chances into portions of northern/eastern KS generally after 2-3 AM. The best storm chances extend generally along/east of I-135. Elevated instability up to 1500 J/kg combined with effective shear of 30-35 kt could support a large hail potential. DCAPE values of 1000-1200 J/kg would support a damaging wind potential as well. As the LLJ weakens Saturday morning, the coverage of shower and storm activity should diminish. The forecast area will remain within a northwest midlevel flow regime into next week, as subtle perturbations eject into Plains on a near-daily occurrence. This will support at least small storm chances, especially at night. This includes Saturday night into Sunday morning as convection develops across CO and gradually moves east into the Plains. The lack of obvious forcing for ascent lends to low confidence in storm coverage/timing. In regards to temperatures, the core of the midlevel ridge will remain southwest of the forecast area over the next 7 days. This should keep the hottest temperatures southwest of the state with highs generally in the low to mid 90s each afternoon. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 511 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Isolated thunderstorms have developed across portions of northeast KS. Short term satellite trends suggest additional development across central KS is unlikely for the remainder of the evening. More-widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is possible late tonight into Saturday morning with the greatest potential along and east of Interstate 135. Model agreement has increased sufficiently to include a TEMPO -TSRA mention at SLN. Beyond SLN, confidence remains too low for a prevailing or TEMPO mention but have introduced PROB30s for -TSRA. Later outlooks will need to reevaluate the potential. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BRF AVIATION...BRF  940 FXAK69 PAFG 212219 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 219 PM AKDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... - Temperatures are expected cool slightly Friday and Saturday and bottom out Sunday in the upper 50s to mid 60s. - A frontal system will bring as much as 0.2 to 0.5 inches of rain from Bettles to Minchumina Friday into Saturday, with lesser amounts to the east. Another low entering the southwest Yukon increases chances of wetting rains in the Upper Tanana Valley. - Very isolated thunderstorms expected in the Eastern Interior Friday and Saturday afternoon and evening. West Coast and Western Interior... - A cold front will move across the West Coast Friday and Saturday. It brings gusty winds, locally higher tides (no flooding is expected), and another round of moderate to heavy rainfall. Conditions improve from the west on Saturday. - Widespread rain totals over 0.5 with Norton Sound and foothills of the Brooks Range having the possibility to receive up to 1.5 inches. - Northerly wind gusts through the Bering Strait increase Friday evening with gusts up to 45 mph possible. Winds diminish Saturday morning. - Temperatures cool slightly following the front. Highs in the 50s to near 60 expected Friday through the weekend and into early next week. - Another storm approaches the West Coast Sunday and is expected to bring yet another round of gusty winds, moderate to heavy rainfall, and locally higher tides. North Slope and Brooks Range... - A brief period of wintry mix is possible near Prudhoe Bay and Kaktovik overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. However chances of accumulation remain low at this time. - A front sweeps across North Slope Friday and Saturday. It brings the potential for traces of snow, with 1-3 inches possible in the Northeastern Brooks Range. - Expect highs in the upper 30s/low 40s after the front passes through, which will be west of Umiat Saturday and from Umiat east Sunday. && .SYNOPSIS... A series of low pressure systems move across the West Coast Friday-Saturday, Sunday-Monday, and late next week that bring with them periods of gusty winds, moderate to heavy rainfall, and the possibility of high surf. Much of the Western and Central Interior will see considerable rainfall through the next week. The Eastern Interior is expected to remain drier and warmer though, especially near the Upper Tanana Valley. As these systems move across the area the North Slope is expected to see its first snowfall of the season, but no snow is expected to stick near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... At the start of the forecast period, Friday, a front moves east across the West Coast. This front is being sourced from a large low pressure system over the Arctic Ocean. As the front moves east a more distinct low forms out of it that will eventually push southeast into the Gulf of Alaska. Gusty northerly winds are expected on the back side of this front across the West Coast Friday evening which weaken and fade through Saturday. The front retains its structure well until it gets to just west of Fairbanks where it begins to fall apart, turning steady rain into more intermittent showers. As the front continues east temperatures cool across the North Slope enough that the light precipitation that is expected will fall as a mix of rain and snow. Snow will be most common in the Brooks Range where 1 to 3 inches of accumulation is possible near Anaktuvuk Pass and Atigun Pass. Snow near the coast is really only expected when temperatures reach their coolest in the mornings as the front passes and will likely not stick on the relatively warmer ground. Following the front a brief period of higher pressure moves in from the southern Bering, fed by a high pressure system in the North Pacific. Temperatures remain cool, but briefly clearer skies and calmer winds are expected late Saturday into Sunday across the West Coast/Western Interior. Yet another low then approaches the West Coast Sunday and moves past it Monday. There is still enough disagreement in forecast models that it is difficult to nail down the strength and track of this low which makes many of its strongest impacts difficult to gauge. Regardless of these differences, another round of gusty winds, moderate to heavy rainfall, and higher water is expected with this system as it moves along the West Coast north and east. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... At the start of the extended forecast period, Monday, a roughly 990 millibar low pressure system moves northeast through the Bering Sea and into the Gulf of Anadyr. It continues northeast through Monday over the Chukotsk Peninsula and into the Chukchi Sea through Monday. As it moves along the West Coast gusty easterly to southeasterly winds are expected which then shift to the south/southwest as the low moves north. These south/southwest winds are expected to increase water levels in the Norton Sound and along the Yukon Delta and may lead to periods of high surf Monday and Tuesday. This low brings considerable rainfall to the West Coast and Western Interior keeping the region very wet through early next week. Following the low pressure increases across the West Coast and Western Interior once again as the North Pacific high asserts itself. Another system begins moving towards the Western Bering Sea yet again late next week which currently seems to mirror the storm earlier in the week. There is currently too much uncertainty in the exact track and strength of this low to be able to accurately predict its impacts beyond yet more gusty winds and periods of moderate to heavy rainfall late next week. Coastal Hazard Potential... Southerly flow across the West Coast early Friday has risen water levels slightly. High tides Friday can be expected to be around 1 to 2 feet higher than normal from the Seward Peninsula south. Winds shift northerly through Friday night. Another low will approach Sunday and move through the West Coast Monday. This next system is expected to be stronger than the current one. There remains a great deal of uncertainty in the track and strength of this low, but current forecasts are hinting at water level rises around 2-6 feet in Norton Sound (Highest near Shaktoolik/Koyuk) with another 1 to 3 foot rise in the Yukon Delta. These will fluctuate over the next couple of days as details become clearer. For now it seems that high surf is likely with high tides Monday and Tuesday which may lead to accelerated beach erosion. && .FIRE WEATHER... Once again, the southeast Interior remains the last holdout for favorable fire weather conditions. While systems from the Pacific are soaking the Western half of Alaska over the coming days, the southerly winds they produce in the Alaska Range will keep conditions in the Upper Tanana Valley warmer and drier than the rest of Northern Alaska. Friday, south/southwest winds in the AK Range will weaken as the low in Gulf that supported them moves northeast into Canada. Winds in the Upper Tanana Valley will turn more to the west with gusts in the afternoon between 10 and 15 mph possible. The movement of the low will also lead to instability in the eastern Interior. Currently, Friday afternoon looks like the best chance for isolated thunderstorms for the rest of the season. Isolated thunderstorms are most likely along the AlCan border and White Mountains. This paired with northward storm motion should keep thunderstorms away from the Upper Tanana Valley this afternoon, but it's not impossible. Temperatures in the eastern Interior valleys will fall into the upper 60s/low 70s with min RHS in the mid 30s to 40s. Saturday, conditions will be similar with the exception that thunderstorms will be less likely and coverage will shift to the northeast closer to Fortymile country. Sunday, winds become northwesterly into the Upper Tanana Valley as low pressure shifts east and high pressure builds in over the Central Interior. The change in wind direction will result in a mild Tanana Valley jet which will support slightly stronger wind gusts between 15 and 25 mph Sunday afternoon. The change in wind direction will weaken the chinook off the Alaska Range and, in addition to cloud cover and potential for showers on the back end of the low over Canada, will help reduce maximum temperatures and bump up relative humidity, low 60s within RHs in the 50s for most areas. The Friday/Saturday pattern looks to rebuild for the start of next week as another trough arrives in the Bering on Monday. Widespread rain for the Western parts of Alaska and warmer and drier weather in the Interior, similar to what we will see today and tomorrow, are expected as a ridge forms between the new and old troughs. How much moisture will make it into the eastern Interior by Tuesday is still uncertain, however the pattern does not appear favorable for significantly wetting rains in the Upper Tanana Valley. && .HYDROLOGY... Several rounds of wet storm systems are expected to bring considerable rainfall to the West Coast, Western Interior, and parts of the Central Interior through the end of next week. Despite this rain, river levels remain low and are not expected to rise to the point of becoming hazardous throughout the weekend. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ802-805. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ803. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ806. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 7 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ806. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ808-809-855. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ810. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ850-853. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ851. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ852. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ854. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ856. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Stokes SYNOPSIS...Stokes SHORT TERM...Stokes LONG TERM...Stokes COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...Stokes FIRE WEATHER...Troyke HYDROLOGY...Stokes  112 FXUS65 KRIW 212223 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 423 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Today will be the hottest day of the week with isolated thunderstorms mainly in southern and western Wyoming, with a 15-20% chance of a couple isolated storms pushing down the Wind River Basin after 4-5PM. - Monsoonal moisture increases on Saturday with more numerous showers and thunderstorms, some may produce heavy rain and local flooding. Marginally severe weather looking more possible in the afternoon across Natrona/Johnson Counties, with damaging winds and small hail the main threats at this time. - Lingering moisture will bring a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms into early next week, with temperatures more seasonable for this time of year pushing towards the end of August. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1245 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Hottest of the afternoon still in progress, bumped up a few spots a couple degrees east of the Divide as it has already warmed past the previous noon forecast. Otherwise, much of the forecast still intact and on schedule. Monsoonal moisture visible on IR pumping up from the south, but more limited and a bit west than it was yesterday currently. This should extend into western parts of the state by mid-afternoon that will spark thunderstorm activity. HiRes models haven't been very reliable the past couple of days missing the morning showers across Johnson County and a bit late on development thus far. PoPs will be adjusted as needed once things kick off, but main concerns (if you want to call it that) is gusty outflows over 40 mph. A rogue storm or two could push down the Wind River Basin between 4-6PM with some of the models picking up on this still, although chances low around 15-20%. Even some isolated storms developing currently near South Pass with slow eastward movement due to weaker steering flow aloft. Not much should come from it but a mere breeze. Otherwise, weekend precipitation looks on track for now but maybe a bit stronger severe weather wise across eastern counties. HiRes models do indicate better instability and stronger multicellular formations across Natrona to Johnson County during the afternoon and early evening hours. Even though SPC pulled the Marginal further east, this should be back in place east of the Bighorns by Saturday morning if not having a slight closer to the eastern parts of the CWA. Stay tuned for updates overnight into early Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 We are now returning to my favorite (note sarcasm, this is by far the thing I hate the most about the weather around here) thing to forecast, the monsoon. And, the models are off to a bad start. We have some showers across northern Wyoming that none of the models had. So, they are 0 for 1 right now. And this isn't baseball where batting .300 makes you an all star. Other than these light showers, things are quiet right now, and it should stay this way through the morning. However, we will see another round of isolated showers and thunderstorms today, probably in similar positions to yesterday. Coverage should remain less than 1 out of 3 for all areas though, as some warm air aloft should prevent widespread convection. This is mainly across the western half of the state. Dewpoint depressions remain fairly high and we still have inverted-V soundings, so this will likely be another day of strong wind gusts from any shower or thunderstorm with only light rain. There could be a stray shower further east, but the chance is less than 15 percent so we left the forecast dry. But, let's just say my confidence is not high with how poorly the models handle the monsoon with weak forcing. Some showers will linger through the night across the west as well, but the core of the moisture likely holds off until Saturday. The other story today will be the heat, as temperatures will peak today as 700 millibar temperatures climb to around 20 Celsius. All areas below 6500 feet have at least a 4 out of 5 chance of high temperatures over 90 this afternoon. Areas below 5500 feet have at least a 1 in 2 chance of highs over 95. As for triple digits, it is smaller. However, temperatures have been running higher than guidance so I give it around a 1 in 3 chance in places like Greybull and Worland. The warmest temperatures would be east of the Divide with the lower elevations and more sunshine. The monsoon returns with a vengeance on Saturday. Precipitable water values climb to around 150 to 200 percent of normal across most of the area. We will also have a shortwave moving across the area to bring some additional forcing. The result will be a chance for all areas to see a shower or thunderstorm, but most guidance favors western Wyoming. There is a Marginal risk of Excessive Rainfall across areas west of the Divide as I write this around 1:15 am. This could be expanded east, we will know around 2:30 am. There is some steering flow, especially at 500 millibars, so this should mitigate the flooding threat somewhat but it will be there. Most convection should end by midnight, but some showers will continue after midnight. Confidence on placement of showers Saturday night is very low, as this is where the models have struggled the most with the monsoon. The best chance will be in western Wyoming, but exactly where is still somewhat uncertain. As for temperatures, they will remain very warm east of the Divide where there will be some morning sunshine, but about 5 degrees cooler than Friday. Areas west of the Divide should see a greater drop, with more cloud cover and a greater coverage of showers. And, some storms could become strong. We do have a Marginal risk of severe weather east of the Bighorn Range. It may be a bit overdone, since there is only weak shear. The main threat would be strong wind gusts, like most showers or storms in Wyoming. Monsoonal moisture then looks to stick around into the first part of next week. This will lead to daily chances of mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms each day. Guidance has poor consistency with the details though. So, it is still difficult to nail down details on where the most numerous convection will be each day and timing of the storms. So, we kept things broad brushed for the most part. Temperatures will decrease somewhat with more cloud cover. However, with the mean ridge remaining in place, above normal temperatures should continue into next week. There are some indications that drier air may try to move in toward the end of next week, bringing a return to drier conditions for a few days through the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 354 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Virga, showers, and thunderstorms will be present across western and central Wyoming, including in the area of or at KJAC, KRIW, KRKS, KLND, KPNA, and KBPI, through 06Z at the latest. Gusty outflows of 35 to 45kts are possible in and around any virga, showers, and thunderstorms. KCOD, KCPR, and KWRL have less than a 20 percent chance during this timeframe. Between 07Z and 18Z, model guidance is showing a cluster of showers moving across western and central Wyoming. Rain shower chances exists at all terminals except KRKS during this timeframe. However, confidence in exact timing and impacts is rather low so continued with the PROB30 groups. More widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast Saturday afternoon at all terminals with the primary hazards being lightning, breezy winds, and heavy rainfall. Brief periods of MVFR flight conditions cannot be ruled out in any shower or thunderstorm this TAF period. Otherwise, VFR flight conditions are anticipated through 00Z Sunday with winds remaining 12kts or less. KCPR could see occasional gusts around 20kts Saturday afternoon outside of showers or thunderstorms. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Lowe DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Gerhardt  196 FXUS64 KOUN 212225 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 525 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 520 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Excessive heat continues through the weekend and into next week. - Isolated to scattered rain/storms are possible most days. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Lingering convection has brought welcome relief from the heat for parts of central and south central Oklahoma. It's also required significant adjustments to our temperature forecast and heat headlines. Additionally, an area of gusty southeast winds resulting from the convective complex is currently over highway 81 at the time of writing, gradually migrating westward. Meanwhile, southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas have already reached triple digit temperatures. Temperatures in northern Oklahoma won't get quite as hot, but dewpoints will keep heat indices near heat advisory level. Fire weather will still be a concern with elevated RFTIs expected in southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas. The aforementioned area of gusty winds may also affect parts of this area, potentially complicating fire fighting efforts. Day && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Convection is looking more likely on Saturday with CAMs getting fairly aggressive about producing storms. First, some early morning activity will be possible near or east of I-35 (lower chances) driven by warm air advection. Second, CAMs are producing an MCS in eastern Kansas that is forecast to dive into eastern Oklahoma, potentially affecting some of our eastern counties. Third, as the MCS and associated outflow make their way south and daytime heating reaches its peak, with residual boundaries in the area we could see additional scattered convection develop westward, mainly south of I-40. This all makes the heat forecast complicated. Northern Oklahoma may get cut off by outflow. Southern and central Oklahoma may get shielded by rain and cloud cover (though some of that may arrive too late in the day to make a difference). Right now, our highest confidence in heat impacts is southwest Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas. We've issued a heat advisory for this area, but additional areas may need to be added as the mesoscale features come into greater focus. We'll be watching fire weather across western Oklahoma and western north Texas as well. RH driven elevated RFTIs will be possible with light winds (outside of potential convection) being the main limiting factor. However, like today, convectively induced winds may complicate fire fighting efforts. Rain chances come down on Sunday as the ridge exerts more influence (though we'll have to keep an eye out for mesoscale features that may change this forecast). Heat (southern two thirds of Oklahoma and north Texas) and fire weather (southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas) will again be the main concerns. Day && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 125 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 As we go throughout the upcoming week, the upper ridge slowly retrogrades back westward. Even by Monday this will allow a more northwest mid-level flow, although weak, to develop across the Southern Plains. Do not anticipate any big changes Monday or Tuesday with another couple of days with near record heat. Although an isolated late day storm can not be ruled out. As we go into Tuesday night, a stronger shortwave drops southeast out of the central Rockies and into Oklahoma, bringing a better chance of rain to portions of Oklahoma and western north Texas. Currently we have 20-40% chance of precip, best across northwest Oklahoma. Hopefully these increase as we get closer, but I don't want to get too optimistic at this point. In the wake of what we hope is some precip, some cooler air slides into parts of the area with temperatures in the 90s along and north of I-40 Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 520 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Mid/High clouds leading to VFR ceilings this TAF period. Scattered showers/storms this evening are expected to remain west of the TAF sites. However, there are chances for showers/storms overnight into Saturday that could affect some of the TAF sites. Chances are too low at some of the sites for mention in TAFs but currently chances are generally expected for those areas along/east of I-35 and then also southern OK and western north TX. Winds are expected to be generally from the S and SE this evening. Outflow boundary(ies) from the thunderstorms could cause wind shifts and changes in speed overnight into Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 77 104 76 103 / 20 30 10 0 Hobart OK 79 107 76 108 / 10 30 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 80 108 79 109 / 10 30 30 0 Gage OK 73 98 71 104 / 0 0 10 0 Ponca City OK 74 94 73 95 / 20 20 10 10 Durant OK 78 107 77 106 / 20 30 30 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-010>017- 019>023-033>038. Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ018-024- 027-039-044>046-050-051. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ033-036-037- 044. TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>089. Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ090. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ083>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...14 SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...25  256 FXUS65 KLKN 212226 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 326 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Subtropical moisture marks a return this afternoon and will continue into next week. This will help to fuel afternoon and evening thunderstorms * Some showers and thunderstorms could produce brief moderate to heavy rain with the main threat of debris flows on recently burned areas * Elevated fire weather conditions persist this afternoon with wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph and minimum relative humidity values of 10 to 15 percent across portions of fire zones 424 and 437 * Cooling trend begins today as mid-level moisture and increasing cloud cover continues its northward trajectory && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Friday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Current radar loop is showing showers and thunderstorms developing across central Nevada this afternoon. Some of these cells, especially those moving across White Pine county, are more wet than dry per radar estimation and the latest web cams looking over US Highways 6, 50, and 93. Additional cells are developing over portions of Lincoln and southern Nye counties and those are also moving north. These are all in response to subtropical moisture streaming northward throughout the day. A strong upper ridge is maintaining its position across the four corners region with an upper trough off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. The resulting southerly flow has allowed the precipitable water values to come up to at or above 0.75 inches in central Nevada. This moist air mass will make its way north during the evening and overnight hours. Look for the lows to be in the 50s and 60s. Little movement is expected concerning the main weather features for tomorrow. The upper ridge will shift slightly to the east while the upper trough will be moving to the northeast and impacting northwest Washington State. Moisture will remain rather higher than average with precipitable water values at or above 0.75 inches. Surface-based CAPE values will be around 250 to 700J/kg with lifted indices below 0C. This will translate into an expansion of showers and thunderstorms across northern and central Nevada. Some of these storms will be capable of brief moderate to heavy rain with any of these cells. There is a hydrologic concern due to the fairly robust moisture values and will need to carefully watch recent burn scars for possible debris flows. Wind gusts to 50 mph will also be possible along with dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. High temperatures will be slightly cooler with readings in the low to mid 90s. Look for storms to continue during the overnight with lows in the 50s. The upper level ridge will wobble slightly east across New Mexico and western Texas on Sunday and Monday. Southwest flow aloft will try to bring in drier air but it will be slow to push the moisture out. Expecting a continuation of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon with more limited coverage to just northern Elko county on Monday. Highs will be cooling with readings in the 80s and 90s on both days with lows in the 50s. The upper ridge is forecast to gradually retrograde west from Tuesday through the end of the forecast period. The flow is expected to come from a more westerly direction as the ridge of forecast to be suppressed south by an upper trough to the north. This flow will help to keep a lid on any active weather during this period. Highs will be in the 80s and 90s through this time with lows in the 50s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence for the return of southerly flow and monsoonal moisture persisting through the weekend, bringing a daily 20% to 50% chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for Nevada through Wednesday. There is low confidence of upper pattern evolution after Wednesday as models show either continued monsoon flow or a return of the upper level ridge and warmer temperatures. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions continue to be the primary flight conditions through Saturday. Winds will develop late tomorrow morning and afternoon, S-SW10-15G20-25KT. VCTS probabilities will generally be between 25% to 40% across the eastern terminals KEKO, KELY, and KENV with a probability of 10% to 20% for thunderstorms over KWMC, KBAM, and KTPH. Convective wind gusts to 45KT are possible with any storms, combined with brief moderate to heavy rain, reducing CIG/VSBY to MVFR at times. && .FIRE WEATHER... Subtropical moisture will continue to stream northward, allowing for afternoon showers and thunderstorms to develop. On Saturday afternoon there will be a 30% to 60% chance for showers and thunderstorms across much of northern and central Nevada. There is a low probability of ten to fifteen percent in the afternoon for Zones 424 and 437 where breezy conditions and low RH could combine with isolated dry thunderstorms. Outside of these two fire zones, the rest of the forecast area will see mainly wet storms with outflow wind gusts to 50 mph along with dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Sufficient moisture and instability will remain on Sunday for a continuation of showers and thunderstorms. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...86 FIRE WEATHER...86  694 FXUS66 KOTX 212233 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 333 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory has been issued through Friday evening due to very warm temperatures and widespread Major HeatRisk. - Saturday system brings increased chances for showers, thunderstorms, and gusty winds. This will lead to critical fire weather conditions across the Inland Northwest. - Patchy blowing dust is possible Saturday in the Western Columbia Basin. && .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will be very warm Friday with widespread Major HeatRisk. A pattern change Friday night into Saturday will bring unsettled conditions with chances for showers, thunderstorms, and gusty winds. Sunday will remain breezy and dry, but cooler. Temperatures will warm again at the start of next week with breezy conditions returning by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Friday through Sunday: An incoming cold front will bring gusty winds and isolated to scattered thunderstorms to the region Saturday into Sunday. Today, ahead of the cold front passage on Saturday, temperatures have warmed into the high 90s with triple digits possible in the lower Basin. This has led to widespread Major HeatRisk values, so anyone without adequate cooling and hydration as well as health systems and industries could see impacts. A Heat Advisory is valid through much of the Inland Northwest through 10 PM this evening and low temperatures into tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s and provide little overnight relief. Tonight into Saturday, moisture advection ahead of the frontal passage will raise PWATs to 125 to 150 percent of normal, around 0.75 to 1 inch. The arrival of the cold front on Saturday accompanied by a 40-50kt 500mb jet and warm overnight and daytime temperatures will create a favorable environment for isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Cascades and northern mountains. While these showers will initially start out as isolated in nature, as daytime warming increases, thunderstorms become more scattered in nature, especially into Saturday afternoon and evening. With PWATs near 1 inch and DCAPE values 500 J/kg and higher, main impacts look to be isolated heavy rainfall rates, gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph, and lightning induced fire starts. Steep terrain and burn scars will need to be monitored for any heavy rainfall rates. This threat will move eastward across the forecast area through the day, and Saturday night into Sunday morning the ID Panhandle sees isolated to scattered thunderstorms. To reflect these critical fire weather conditions, Fire Weather Watches have been issued. For the Cascades and northern mountains, the Fire Weather Watch has been issued from Saturday morning through Sunday morning. For the ID Panhandle, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Another impact from this cold front will be gusty winds leading to critical fire weather concerns across the Basin and Spokane area. There is a 40 percent chance and higher for most locations in the region to see wind gusts higher than 30 mph on Saturday night. Areas that will see the highest gusts include the Lewiston, Moses Lake, Wenatchee, and Waterville Plateau areas. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the basin, Palouse, and Spokane areas from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening. Potential impacts from these winds include rapid spreading of wildfires alongside blowing objects and difficulties driving, especially for high profile vehicles. While models initially had the low moving out of the area quicker, there is now better agreement that the low lingers over the state of Washington through Sunday before moving out of the area Sunday night into Monday. Impacts will continue to be seen into Sunday afternoon with residual winds and isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the northern Idaho Panhandle. One thing to keep a close eye on is the extent of the thunderstorms post cold frontal passage on Sunday morning. As high-res models pick up the end of the event Sunday morning, they are showing enough lingering instability throughout fire zone 708 (Eastern Columbia Basin/Palouse/Spokane area) that it may need to be added into the Red Flag Warning. Wind gusts around 15- 20 mph will linger throughout the Cascade gaps, Okanogan Valley, Waterville Plateau, Columbia Basin, Spokane/CdA, and Palouse areas through late Sunday afternoon, bringing continued elevated fire weather conditions. A significant cooldown due to the cold front will be observed Saturday into Sunday, with high temperatures dropping around ten or more degrees. Temperatures will end up being a couple degrees below normal on Sunday. Apart from the northern mountains and Cascades, precipitation chances drop down to near zero. Monday through Wednesday: With high confidence (80 percent of clusters) indicating a strengthening ridge building over the area early next week, the temperature drop will be short lived. By Tuesday, temperatures will again warm into the high 80s to low 90s. Clusters show a 50 percent chance of another trough approaching the PNW coast, though timing and track are uncertain. This could lead to a return of gusty winds and thunderstorm chances. Overall chances for precipitation remain low, with PoPs 15 percent and lower expected Monday through Wednesday. /AS && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs: VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. Winds will be less than 10kts for all terminals except COE, which will see these winds decrease over the next few hours. Smoke from local wildfires may cause reductions in visibility, especially for EAT. Smoke models remain pessimistic and show EAT remaining at or below 6SM through the TAF period. For all other terminals, smoke models show visibilities are expected to remain VFR at 6SM or greater. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in light winds and VFR conditions for all TAF sites. Moderate confidence in continued lowered visibilities at EAT due to smoke from the Little Giant Fire. /AS ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 68 94 59 82 54 87 / 10 10 20 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 68 95 60 81 53 86 / 10 10 40 0 0 0 Pullman 62 91 51 78 46 86 / 10 10 30 0 0 0 Lewiston 72 98 62 87 59 92 / 10 10 40 0 0 0 Colville 60 95 52 81 45 87 / 10 10 40 10 0 0 Sandpoint 62 93 56 77 47 83 / 10 20 40 10 0 0 Kellogg 63 92 55 77 52 84 / 10 10 40 0 0 0 Moses Lake 69 95 56 85 54 89 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 76 94 63 83 62 88 / 20 20 0 0 0 0 Omak 71 96 56 85 56 88 / 10 20 20 10 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area- Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County. Red Flag Warning from 4 PM Saturday to 11 AM PDT Sunday for Selkirk Mountains of Northeast Washington (Zone 700). Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM PDT Saturday for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern Columbia Basin -Palouse - Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone 701)-Lower Palouse -Snake River (Zone 709)- Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). Air Quality Alert until 2 PM PDT Monday for Central Chelan County-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 8 AM PDT Sunday for East Portion of North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan National Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696)-East Washington North Cascades (Zone 698)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Highlands and Kettle Mountains (Zone 699)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703). ID...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d'Alene Area-Idaho Palouse- Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area- Northern Panhandle. Red Flag Warning from 4 PM Saturday to 11 AM PDT Sunday for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101). && $$  759 FXUS63 KGLD 212234 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 434 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated severe weather possible late this afternoon into tonight. Very low confidence in storm development and coverage. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards. Overall, severe weather potential appears to be lower than yesterday (Thursday). - Weekend precipitation chances mainly at night with showers and storms moving out of Colorado. Severe chances will be low with this activity. - Heat peaks today, then slightly cooler over the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1230 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Northwest flow continues today around a ridge centered near the Four Corners. Weak to moderate instability is building in the area with 40-50 kts of deep layer shear. Models have struggled in this pattern with the convection, and will probably do so once again today, with a wide range of solutions offered by the 12z CAMs. They are missing some of the mesoscale features which ultimately play an important role, such as the outflow boundary which is moving through areas north of I-70 originating from morning convection in Nebraska. While confidence is low in the details, generally expect to see isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms develop this afternoon north of Interstate 70. A supercell will be possible given the environmental parameters, capable of large hail, damaging winds and a brief tornado. Another cluster of storms may move across the area this evening, originating in southeast Wyoming and sustained by a strengthening low level jet. If those storms develop and cluster, may see another risk of damaging winds similar to last night. Overnight, the low level jet remains active with isentropic lift maximized over eastern parts of the area (east of Highway 25). May see elevated storms develop late near or just east of the area with a marginal wind and hail threat as MUCAPE lingers at 1000-1500 j/kg. Outflow from those storms will push a cold front through the area around 12z with winds shifting to the east and briefly gusty. May see patchy fog develop along the leading edge of the front as well, mainly in the Colorado/Kansas border area, but it would be transient. On Saturday the upper ridge axis will run from eastern Wyoming and Colorado to the Texas panhandle. Convection will develop in the afternoon over the Rockies and Front Range with the southwest flow, then move across the eastern plains and spreading into the area Saturday night. With the later arrival, probably not until after 03z, storms will be weakening but may still pose a marginal risk for damaging wind gusts as they make their way across the area through the overnight. The ridge flattens out on Sunday and extends from the Four Corners to the Texas panhandle. Zonal flow over the top through northern Colorado will initiate convection over the mountains and Front Range, and once again make the trek across the plains and into the area Sunday night. These will arrive slightly earlier, 00-02z, in far northeast Colorado and may still pose a marginal wind and hail threat, but with only weak instability forecast and deep layer shear around 20 kts, severe chances will be low. Storms will gradually weaken as they move east into the remainder of the area Sunday evening. The ridge strengthens a bit on Monday with height rises in Colorado, and the zonal flow is through southern Wyoming. Forecast instability is weak and generally less than 1000 j/kg, though deep layer shear does increase to around 40 kts. RFS suggests a few scattered storms developing, moving east and then southeast with the mean flow Monday afternoon and evening in areas generally north of Interstate 70 with perhaps a marginal risk for wind and hail. The temperature trend for the period will be near to slightly above normal through the weekend, then above normal on Monday with temperatures currently forecast in the mid to upper 90s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 202 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Synoptically, a ridge is forecast to be over the SW CONUS and currently looks to remain relatively stationary. Throughout the week, there appears to be a few shortwaves moving though the CWA, which may bring higher precipitation chances. High temperatures for the week are forecast to be in the 90s for the majority of the area. The "coolest" day for the period looks to be Wednesday, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s, whereas Friday looks to be the hottest with highs in the mid 90s. If the ridge begins to amplify or move eastward, as guidance hints, higher temperatures could be seen. Winds throughout the week are forecast to be calm to breezy, and relative humidity values are expected to be higher than 30%, which should help minimize fire weather concerns. Precipitation chances are present during the week. As some shortwaves move around the high, they will likely to be our main precipitation producers. The day currently with the highest precipitation chances is Tuesday. Guidance hints at some vorticity associated with the shortwave as it moves through Tuesday afternoon. Both CAPE and shear appear sufficient for severe storms; however, some guidance indicates a mismatch between higher/lower CAPE and lower/higher shear, which could lead to less organized storms. Looking at qpf, some guidance shows the possibility of heavy rainfall with these storms, which is something to keep in mind as we get closer to Tuesday. The rest of the week there is roughly a 15-30% chance of PoPs as various shortwaves move through the region. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 432 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will develop through this evening, with low probabilities of directly impacting either KGLD or KMCK. Tonight, some modest increase in coverage may increase the chances of a thunderstorm with brief gusty winds and reductions in visibility due to rain. Overnight, a cold front will move through around 12z with surface winds shifting to the east. The front may result in patchy fog and a period of low clouds, mainly at KGLD, through early Saturday morning. A return to VFR is expected by mid morning. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...Holdren AVIATION...024  754 FXUS64 KHUN 212234 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 534 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1016 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Very low chances of showers and storms today, followed by mostly dry conditions this weekend. However, there is the potential for increased shower and storm chances Saturday evening/night as an MCS feature moves into the region. - Greater rain chances then return next week, with daily chances of showers and storms persisting through at least midweek. && .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 150 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Other than increasing forecast dew points this afternoon based on the latest observations, no other significant changes were needed. A few showers have formed near Florence and then down near Moulton and Hartselle this afternoon, but no lightning has been observed with this activity thus far. The showers have been also short-lived. Expecting this trend to continue through the remainder of the afternoon since the front has shifted south over central AL. Current temperatures are in the mid to upper 80s for most locations with highs on track to reach the upper 80s to around 90 degrees this afternoon. Lows are still expected to dip into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees, with the potential for patchy fog later tonight. Previous Discussion: The upper shortwave trough that aided in shower and storm development yesterday will gradually begin to shift eastward today and through the weekend. The surface front that also helped with shower and storm formation is slowly migrating southward from our area. By this afternoon, it's slated to be farther south over central Alabama. This coincides with model guidance showing slightly drier air moving into our area behind the front through the day and this evening (dew points in the upper 60s/lower 70s). Overall, this will keep most of the shower and storm activity to our south today; however, we cannot rule out a few showers and maybe a storm or two south of the Tennessee River and perhaps up into northeast Alabama today but chances are very low (10-20%). No rain is then forecast tonight. As for temperatures, it won't be as warm as in recent days, but highs are forecast to top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows tonight should dip into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. In addition, calm winds, clearing skies, and low dew point depressions may pave the way for some patchy fog development late tonight into early Saturday morning, especially in the river valleys and more sheltered locations. Although, any fog that forms isn't expected to become widespread dense at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday Night) Issued at 1016 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 The aforementioned upper ridge tries to build farther into the Southeast through late weekend, pushing the upper trough northeastward. In addition, surface high pressure looks to slide into the Tennessee Valley by Sunday, but quickly shift to the east through the day. Some guidance hints at the potential for an MCS type feature to drop into the region from the northwest Saturday evening/night, bringing increased chances of showers and storms to the area. This doesn't look like the consensus just yet, but we're keeping an eye on these trends and the potential. Other than this, anticipating drier and slightly cooler conditions through the weekend. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s will be common, along with lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 741 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026 A mean trough axis will remain in place over the eastern CONUS with a strong ridge over the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. This will keep a fairly active northwest flow regime over the central Plains and upper Midwest through the OH and TN valleys. This will keep at least low chances of showers and thunderstorms in play, with the big question begin details of MCS timing and intensity. It's far too early to discern this with much confidence, so will side with the NBM in this forecast. High temperatures will remain near normal in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the 60s to around 70. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 534 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Patchy fog is forecast to develop by 07-08Z, with a medium chance of MVFR conditions and low chance of IFR conditions due to lowered visibility. VFR conditions will return by 13Z for the balance of the period with a light north-northwest wind. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM....26 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...17  966 FXUS64 KMOB 212238 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 538 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New UPDATE/DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 525 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Very hot conditions continue today with peak heat indices in the 108 to 112 range. - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon will continue to be capable of producing brief intense rainfall, excessive lightning, and strong to damaging wind gusts. && .UPDATE/DISCUSSION... Issued at 525 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Ongoing this afternoon, keeping a close eye on convection ongoing generally along and north of the I-10 corridor. Plenty of support in place for strong to severe thunderstorms, including ample dry air entrainment per recent GOES-16 Precipitable water, resulting in extremely high DCAPE across central MS/AL and plenty of available instability. Environmental favorability for severe weather is in place, but focus will be on any outflow boundary and/or seabreeze interactions to individual, pulse-like severe storms causing damaging downburst winds. REFS guidance/trends slides all convection south late this afternoon/evening, but not entirely sure this will happen as they interact with the post- seabreeze environment along the coast, with low confidence on this activity sagging south through the evening. If it does, the severe threat will transition into coastal marine areas around sunset with ongoing gusty winds the main risks. Drier air filters into the area tomorrow through Sunday, resulting in lower forecast PoPs and greater PBL mixing to cause a reduction in the heat risk. Not anticipating the need for an advisory tomorrow as heat indices range in the 103-106 range, still hot though. Could still see an isolated storm along the seabreeze, but keeping PoPs in the 10-20% range both Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Monday into next week, focus shifts to the northwest as we could likely see distinct PVA/impulses riding around the periphery of the ridge across the four corners region. This could introduce a series of long-distant MCS's from the central MS valley region into the northern Gulf coast. Something we'll need to carefully monitor for Monday and Tuesday. Mid to late week, we return right back to the typical summertime pattern but again with ongoing impulses from the north. Afternoon heat indices remain below criteria/heat risk impacts remain limited throughout the week with highs in the low 90's, but PoPs remain elevated with daily localized strong to isolated severe storm risks. KLG && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR conditions will mostly prevail this afternoon, and after a line of convection passes through the region late this afternoon until late evening. We are expecting numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop north of Highway-84 by late afternoon and move southward to the coast through this evening. Added a PROB30 group to the KMOB/KBFM/KPNS/KJKA sites for the early- to mid- evening hours for IFR visibilities (could briefly become VLIFR), MVFR ceilings and gusty northerly winds to 35 knots. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 74 95 74 96 / 30 10 0 20 Pensacola 78 93 78 95 / 20 20 0 20 Destin 79 91 79 93 / 40 20 10 10 Evergreen 71 97 71 98 / 40 10 0 10 Waynesboro 72 99 73 100 / 30 0 0 0 Camden 72 97 72 96 / 20 0 0 10 Crestview 73 96 72 97 / 30 20 10 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266. FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079. GM...None. && $$  273 FXUS63 KDVN 212245 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 545 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold frontal passage will bring a risk of strong to severe storms through sunset. - Outside of yet another system centered around Wednesday, mainly dry conditions should be seen until late next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 153 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 At 18z the cool front was located roughly from KY51 southwest to KIFA and near KEBS. Ahead of the front was a pre-frontal trof running from roughly KOVS to near KDSM. Satellite has agitated clouds along the front between KY51 and KDEH with showers a few storms developing. There is a layer of low to mid level steep lapse rates between the trof and front that will sweep through during the late afternoon/evening with some showers or storms along the pre-frontal trof. An associated upper level disturbance will help to enhance the overall mesoscale lift and maintain the showers/storms along the cool front. The CAMs are struggling with what will happen late this afternoon/evening due to the overall weak forcing. Based on what has occurred so far from satellite/radar, some low end convection will be seen along the pre-frontal trof. The stronger convection, associated with the upper level disturbance, will be tied to the passage of the cool front. That being said, prime time for strong to severe storms looks to be 3 to 8 PM with the storms quickly decaying in the 8 to 10 PM time frame. The primary risks still look to be damaging winds and hail. However, storm-scale interactions cannot fully rule out the potential of brief spin-up tornadoes. The relatively higher severe risk still looks to be along/east of the Mississippi and the I-80 corridor on north. After 10 PM quiet conditions will then be seen the remainder of the night with slowly falling dew points as the cool front slowly exits the area. Seasonable temperatures will be seen on Tuesday with breezy conditions developing around mid-day. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 153 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Saturday night through Friday Assessment...low (20-30%) confidence on rain around Wednesday Northwest flow aloft will persist through the coming week. The best chance for any rain looks to be tied to around Wednesday during the passage of yet another cool front. However, this system will only have the moisture associated with it. As a result, the model consensus only has 20-30% chances for rain. Prior to and after next Wednesday, there will be additional but weaker upper level disturbances moving through in the flow aloft. While an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out, over 90% of the area will likely remain dry with near seasonable temperatures. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 541 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will continue through 03z/22 with the better coverage along/east of the Mississippi and generally north/east of KGBG. Once the cold front passes winds will drop to under 10 knots overnight. Gusts up to 24 knots will be possible after 16z/22 across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois once the nocturnal inversion breaks. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...08  340 FXUS66 KOTX 212245 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 345 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory has been issued through Friday evening due to very warm temperatures and widespread Major HeatRisk. - Saturday system brings increased chances for showers, thunderstorms, and gusty winds. This will lead to critical fire weather conditions across the Inland Northwest. - Patchy blowing dust is possible Saturday in the Western Columbia Basin. && .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will be very warm Friday with widespread Major HeatRisk. A pattern change Friday night into Saturday will bring unsettled conditions with chances for showers, thunderstorms, and gusty winds. Sunday will remain breezy and dry, but cooler. Temperatures will warm again at the start of next week with breezy conditions returning by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Friday through Sunday: An incoming cold front will bring gusty winds and isolated to scattered thunderstorms to the region Saturday into Sunday. Today, ahead of the cold front passage on Saturday, temperatures have warmed into the high 90s with triple digits possible in the lower Basin. This has led to widespread Major HeatRisk values, so anyone without adequate cooling and hydration as well as health systems and industries could see impacts. A Heat Advisory is valid through much of the Inland Northwest through 10 PM this evening and low temperatures into tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s and provide little overnight relief. Tonight into Saturday, moisture advection ahead of the frontal passage will raise PWATs to 125 to 150 percent of normal, around 0.75 to 1 inch. The arrival of the cold front on Saturday accompanied by a 40-50kt 500mb jet and warm overnight and daytime temperatures will create a favorable environment for isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Cascades and northern mountains. While these showers will initially start out as isolated in nature, as daytime warming increases, thunderstorms become more scattered in nature, especially into Saturday afternoon and evening. With PWATs near 1 inch and DCAPE values 500 J/kg and higher, main impacts look to be isolated heavy rainfall rates, gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph, and lightning induced fire starts. Steep terrain and burn scars will need to be monitored for any heavy rainfall rates. This threat will move eastward across the forecast area through the day, and Saturday night into Sunday morning the ID Panhandle sees isolated to scattered thunderstorms. To reflect these critical fire weather conditions, Red Flag Warnings have been issued. For the Cascades and northern mountains, the Red Flag Warning is valid from Saturday morning through Sunday morning. For the ID Panhandle, the Red Flag Warning is valid from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Another impact from this cold front will be gusty winds leading to critical fire weather concerns across the Basin and Spokane area. There is a 40 percent chance and higher for most locations in the region to see wind gusts higher than 30 mph on Saturday night. Areas that will see the highest gusts include the Lewiston, Moses Lake, Wenatchee, and Waterville Plateau areas. A Red Flag Warning for the basin, Palouse, and Spokane areas is valid from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening. Potential impacts from these winds include rapid spreading of wildfires alongside blowing objects and difficulties driving, especially for high profile vehicles. While models initially had the low moving out of the area quicker, there is now better agreement that the low lingers over the state of Washington through Sunday before moving out of the area Sunday night into Monday. Impacts will continue to be seen into Sundayafternoon with residual winds and isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the northern Idaho Panhandle. One thing to keep a close eye on is the extent of the thunderstorms post cold frontal passage on Sunday morning. As high-res models pick up the end of the event Sunday morning, they are showing enough lingering instability throughout fire zone 708 (Eastern Columbia Basin/Palouse/Spokane area) that it may need to be added into the Red Flag Warning. Wind gusts around 15- 20 mph will linger throughout the Cascade gaps, Okanogan Valley, Waterville Plateau, Columbia Basin, Spokane/CdA, and Palouse areas through late Sunday afternoon, bringing continued elevated fire weather conditions. A significant cooldown due to the cold front will be observed Saturday into Sunday, with high temperatures dropping around ten or more degrees. Temperatures will end up being a couple degrees below normal on Sunday. Apart from the northern mountains and Cascades, precipitation chances drop down to near zero. Monday through Wednesday: With high confidence (80 percent of clusters) indicating a strengthening ridge building over the area early next week, the temperature drop will be short lived. By Tuesday, temperatures will again warm into the high 80s to low 90s. Clusters show a 50 percent chance of another trough approaching the PNW coast, though timing and track are uncertain. This could lead to a return of gusty winds and thunderstorm chances. Overall chances for precipitation remain low, with PoPs 15 percent and lower expected Monday through Wednesday. /AS && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs: VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. Winds will be less than 10kts for all terminals except COE, which will see these winds decrease over the next few hours. Smoke from local wildfires may cause reductions in visibility, especially for EAT. Smoke models remain pessimistic and show EAT remaining at or below 6SM through the TAF period. For all other terminals, smoke models show visibilities are expected to remain VFR at 6SM or greater. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in light winds and VFR conditions for all TAF sites. Moderate confidence in continued lowered visibilities at EAT due to smoke from the Little Giant Fire. /AS ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 68 94 59 82 54 87 / 10 10 20 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 68 95 60 81 53 86 / 10 10 40 0 0 0 Pullman 62 91 51 78 46 86 / 10 10 30 0 0 0 Lewiston 72 98 62 87 59 92 / 10 10 40 0 0 0 Colville 60 95 52 81 45 87 / 10 10 40 10 0 0 Sandpoint 62 93 56 77 47 83 / 10 20 40 10 0 0 Kellogg 63 92 55 77 52 84 / 10 10 40 0 0 0 Moses Lake 69 95 56 85 54 89 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 76 94 63 83 62 88 / 20 20 0 0 0 0 Omak 71 96 56 85 56 88 / 10 20 20 10 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area- Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County. Red Flag Warning from 4 PM Saturday to 11 AM PDT Sunday for Selkirk Mountains of Northeast Washington (Zone 700). Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM PDT Saturday for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern Columbia Basin -Palouse - Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone 701)-Lower Palouse -Snake River (Zone 709)- Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). Air Quality Alert until 2 PM PDT Monday for Central Chelan County-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 8 AM PDT Sunday for East Portion of North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan National Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696)-East Washington North Cascades (Zone 698)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Highlands and Kettle Mountains (Zone 699)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703). ID...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d'Alene Area-Idaho Palouse- Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area- Northern Panhandle. Red Flag Warning from 4 PM Saturday to 11 AM PDT Sunday for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101). && $$  766 FXUS66 KEKA 212252 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 352 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * A deep marine layer and cooler temperatures aloft will combine to bring near to slightly below normal temperatures this weekend. && .SYNOPSIS...A deep marine layer and cooler temperatures aloft will combine to bring near to slightly below normal temperatures through the weekend. The coast may finally see more clearing over the weekend. Some warming is expected Sunday and Monday before another trough brings cooler temperatures next week. && .DISCUSSION...An upper level-open wave trough crowds into the PACNW coastline over the few days. This pacific low is a part of a larger pattern, Omega block, which has high pressure ridging set up in the interior with peak amplitude extending into Canada. The positive tilt of the pacific area trough has kept the potential for convection and consequently lightning probabilities low. That and the sourced tropical moisture being pulled into the area via elongated troughing motion has also paired with the deepening marine layer to quell high temperatures inland and rebound overnight recovery RH values, further suppressing fire weather behavior. Saturday the upper level low starts to move out of the area with high pressure filling in behind it. This will bring cooler temperatures aloft which will keep the inland areas mainly in the 80s with 70s closer to the coast. This may finally bring some clearing and breezy afternoon winds. The cooler temperatures aloft will weaken the marine inversion. Saturday night into Sunday morning there is some offshore flow and this may help clear skies out more quickly during the day. It doesn't look strong enough to keep skies clear overnight. Monday through the middle of the week a trough starts to approach the area bringing cooler temperatures and deeper marine layer again. This will come more from the west, thunderstorms look unlikely. && .AVIATION...The deepening marine layer has lifted the cloud base and kept ceilings 1300-1500ft at the coastal terminals, locking flight categories into MVFR with periods of VFR as skies scatter out and fill back in with offshore stratus persisting. Satellite products in the visible spectrum confirm what models are also predicting for this evening, IFR conditions with ceilings coming down below 1000ft. The marine layer will hold the cloud base around 700ft or so for KACV and KCEC with a few periods of sub 500ft ceilings at KCEC being signaled for a few hours. That said, offshore winds at KACV could help keep visibility improved overnight as well. Mostly prevailing VFR conditions at KUKI overnight with gusty northerlies late Saturday afternoon. /EYS && .MARINE...Calm seas and light to gentle breezes are expected through early Saturday. Moderate northerly winds return to the outer waters Saturday afternoon and increase through Sunday with localized gusts near Gale, south of Cape Mendocino and fanning out into the southern outer waters. A small craft advisory has been hoisted for the southern waters late Saturday night/early Sunday morning as well as the northern outer waters which start Sunday evening. && .FIRE WEATHER...Marine influence has will continue to increase through the end of the weekend. High clouds will aid in the warmest interior temperatures pulling back closer to 90 with RH closer to 25 percent. Mid and upper slope recoveries will also improve though remain poor on higher peaks. Warmer, near average conditions will return Sunday and into early next week. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... None. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png  876 FXUS63 KGRB 212255 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 555 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered storms (40-75% chance) are expected to develop over eastern WI through 9 PM today. Strong to severe storms are possible (level 1 of 5 risk). - Showers and storms (40-60% chance) are expected over north- central to eastern WI on Saturday, mainly in the afternoon. - Dry weather expected Sunday and Monday, with active weather returning for the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Severe Weather Threat Through This Evening...An area of stratus is slowly being replaced by more convective cloud types as a cold front approaches from the west. Already radar returns are popping up in the area where some partial clearing has occurred across north-central and western Wisconsin, just ahead of the cold front. This activity is expected to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon as the partial clearing works its way east, allowing instability to build across eastern and northeast Wisconsin. Forecast instabilities are expected to rise to 1-2 J/g, with the highest values across east- central Wisconsin. Bulk shear looks a bit better than yesterday, clocking in at 20-30 knots, with the best values across east- central Wisconsin coincident with the best instability. That being said, the window for clearing and building instability appears to be fairly short looking at satellite imagery with the best instability and shear south of our area; therefore, the pulling back of the slight risk out of the area per SPC seems appropriate. Current thinking is any storms that develop would be pulsy, with a threat for strong to severe storms this afternoon into this evening in the 3-9PM time frame. The main threat would be damaging winds and large hail. Locally heavy rain will also be possible with any storm. The threat from flooding given the recent dry spell seems to be low; however, if an area gets repeated rounds of activity the threat could increase. The threat greatly diminishes this evening with the loss of daytime heating. This Weekend...Northwest, cyclonic flow will prevail across the Great Lakes. A shortwave trough moving through this flow will create chances (20-60%) for showers and a few storms across north- central and eastern Wisconsin on Saturday, mainly during the afternoon and early evening. Weak deep-layer shear will prevent significant storm organization, keeping the severe weather risk low; however, inverted-V soundings and steep low- level lapse rates would promote some gustier winds and small hail in any stronger shower/storm. A Dry Period...High pressure will then build in Saturday night, providing dry weather across the region Sunday into Monday. Next Week...another shortwave trough is forecast to move across the region late Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. Instability appears modest with this mid-week feature, keeping severe probabilities low. Temperatures into next week will stay fairly close to late- summer norms, with daily highs mostly ranging from the 70s to lower 80s and overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 60s, with a couple nights with lows in the low-mid 40s across northern WI this weekend. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 554 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A cold front will be moving across eastern Wisconsin through late evening before exiting over Lake Michigan. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be impacting the eastern WI terminals through 02-03Z before exiting. Brief reductions in visibility to IFR along with wind gusts to 30 kts will be possible in the strongest storms. Winds will shift to the northwest as the front passes. Scattered VFR clouds will likely persist into the overnight hours before clearing occurs for a short time. Clouds increase on Saturday morning as an upper disturbance dives into the region from the northwest. While sct-bkn MVFR ceilings could move into far north-central WI after 10Z, expect low end VFR clouds to build with daytime heating in the 15-16Z timeframe. Expect scattered showers and isolated storms to develop over northeast WI in the 19-23Z timeframe which could impact GRB/MTW so added a prob30 group consequently. ATW is on the western edge of the shower potential, but will continue to monitor trends. Northwest winds will be a bit breezy on Saturday with gusts to 20 kts at all terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Persistent S/SSW winds will build waves to 2-4 feet on Lake Michigan late this afternoon. A few 5 foot waves are possible in the open waters. A few gusts to 25 kts possible this afternoon as well. Conditions look to be just shy of Small Craft Criteria, so will hold off on an advisory. As winds turn to the NW this weekend, a few gusts to 25 kts will be possible, especially near Death's Door on Saturday. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Kurimski AVIATION.......MPC MARINE.........Kurimski  858 FXUS63 KGRR 212254 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 654 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers/thunderstorms today into Saturday - Cooler and dry Sunday through Tuesday, midweek rain chances && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 314 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Scattered showers/thunderstorms today into Saturday Scattered thunderstorm cells have developed along an inland surface trough / confluence zone east of US-131 and will move east this evening. These are ahead of diminishing convection from Wisconsin with midlevel MCVs apparent on radar. The storms are in an area of MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg. Modeled effective shear is no more than 20 knots, though it's possible the MCVs could boost the shear values somewhat and provide greater longevity to the cells. Small hail and wind gusts to 40 overall are possible today. Additional scattered storm cells are likely tonight, with elevated bases via 850 mb moisture, then may become more surface based as they move toward Mid Michigan later Saturday. CAPE values will generally be 500-1500 J/kg and effective shear is likely to remain no more than 20-25 knots. Lapse rates both at low and mid levels should be fairly modest during much of this activity which should also help keep severe wind/hail potential low. QPF mean is about 0.10 to 0.25, though more realistically, amounts will be more hit or miss, with a few isolated totals closer to 1 inch possible. - Cooler and dry Sunday through Tuesday, midweek rain chances Northwest flow Sunday and Monday will provide slightly cooler, drier, more comfortable air as the upper-level trough turns cutoff low over the eastern/northeastern Great Lakes region. A minor return of moisture and warmer air occurs from late Tue into Wed, with scattered thunderstorms again possible with the next frontal wave. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 654 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over the next several hours, though coverage is too low for TAF inclusion of any thunder threat with 10-20% impacts for terminals. Chances increase later this evening into tonight with a pre-frontal trough followed by a cold front. Given high variability in short range model guidance and questions on coverage have maintained previous PROB30s for all terminals. Winds then increase from the northwest behind the cold front with gusts to 25 knots expected. The other concern is high dewpoints favor a period of low clouds and patchy fog near daybreak, particularly in any thunderstorms. Mainly MVFR is favored at this time, but IFR cannot be ruled out in thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 314 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Ongoing Beach Hazards Statement / Small Craft Advisory for near Big and Little Sable Points through Fri evening is fairly low confidence given latest data, as south winds 10-15 knots may only build up 2 to 4 foot waves with a moderate swim risk before subsiding tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are possible over the lake tonight with a low chance for gusts to 30 knots. More likely hazards from wind, waves and currents for this weekend as north-northwest winds increase behind a cold front. There remain some differences in the models regarding the strength of winds at times, but overall, waves should build to 3 to 6 feet at most beaches later Saturday morning. Then after a slight lull Saturday evening, winds likely strengthen and waves build again Saturday night into Sunday. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ037- 043. Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 11 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ844>849. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ848-849. && $$ DISCUSSION...CAS AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...CAS  853 FXUS63 KOAX 212254 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 554 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a conditional threat for severe storms this afternoon and evening. Storms could have very large hail (2+ inch) and damaging winds (60-80 mph). - After a brief lull in activity late tonight, more storms develop west of a Neligh to Wahoo to Nemaha line (20-40% chance) after midnight. - Storms clear late Saturday morning leaving a pleasant day. Periodic storm chances continue into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 151 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 18z METARs show a sfc front draped from near Hebron northeast toward west-central Iowa. Elevated convection has continued to fester over parts of the forecast area late this morning through the early afternoon, largely driven by some H7 warm advection and weak convergence along the H8/H9 front that's displaced farther north into northeast Nebraska. The sfc front will continue pushing southward this afternoon and evening, while aloft, a subtle H5 disturbance approaches from the northwest. Near and ahead of the front, expect a warm and humid airmass in place with CAPE of 1,000 to 2,000 J/kg. Lift provided by the wave, low level forcing from the frontal features, and any outflow boundaries should help trigger more scattered showers and storms across the forecast area this afternoon and evening. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty on how afternoon and evening convection will evolve which is largely evident in the latest HiRes CAM outputs making this severe threat largely conditional. 12z guidance from the NSSL WRF and HiRes FV3 take the current cluster of storms over central Nebraska to the southeast, clipping our far southern counties later this afternoon with additional storms firing off along the frontal zone. Meanwhile, other solutions from both the HRRR and NAMNest would suggest the cluster across central Nebraska weakening with southeastward extent, and little to no late afternoon/early evening storm activity. Given the good amount of instability present and 0-6 km shear of 45-50 kts provided by an H5 jet, storms would likely become severe. Their main hazards would be very large hail of up to 2+ inches given the favorable, elongated hodographs and steep H7-H5 lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/km, and also damaging wind gusts of 60-80 mph as BUFKIT soundings show a rather deep low level pocket of dry air contributing to large downdraft CAPE of 1,100 to 1,400 J/kg. With this forecast update, have kept PoPs of 15 to 30% for most of eastern Nebraska through 00z tonight. Highs today warm to the mid to upper 80s. Another round of storms is forecast after 06z tonight (20-40% chance) across our far western and southwestern areas as lift remains in place from continued low level warm advection and some lingering FGEN. Some of these storms could have some gusty winds or hail, but the better potential appears to be in central Nebraska. PoPs taper off after 15z as sfc high pressure gradually builds back into the Northern Plains. This should give us a pleasant day with highs in the low to mid 80s under partly to mostly sunny skies. Lows Saturday night cool to the 60s for most locations. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Another mid-level impulse will arrive by early Sunday morning, and combined with continue low level thermal advection, will see another round of storms across our western counties (20-50% chance). At this time, severe weather appears unfavorable. The southwest US H5 ridge will remain in place for much of the long term forecast period, placing us in northwesterly flow with several mid-level impulses riding it. This will lead to continued chances for stormsfor much of the period, but the best chances appear to be late Sunday into Monday (50 to 70% chance, especially across northeast Nebraska), Tuesday (20 to 40% chance areawide), and late Thursday. The various machine learning severe weather algorithms would suggest at least a small severe threat is possible during those days with any activity, but at this time it's still too early to dig into specifics. Temperatures Sunday remain cool in the upper 70s and low 80s, while highs in the 80s are expected through Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 552 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the period as drier weather builds into the area. Expect a 20-40% chance of thunderstorms in the vicinity of KLNK overnight tonight. Have added VCTS from 5am to 8am there. Hope to have a better idea of timing and likelihood with 06Z issuance. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Castillo AVIATION...Nicolaisen  898 FXUS66 KPDT 212255 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 355 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisories remain in effect through 10 PM. - Very low to slight chance (5-20 percent) of high-based showers and thunderstorms today and Saturday. Red Flag Warnings in effect for several fire weather zones. - Widespread breezy to windy westerly winds coupled with low relative humidity Saturday. Red Flag Warnings in effect for numerous fire weather zones. Wind Advisories in effect. && .DISCUSSION... Water vapor imagery shows a large, closed low offshore in the Pacific, just west of the OR/CA border. Meanwhile, an upper- level ridge of high pressure extends from the Four Corners into the Pacific Northwest. The interaction of these two synoptic- scale features will drive the bulk of our weather over the next couple days. Under the ridge, widespread hot conditions are in place with afternoon high temperatures already in the 90s to lower 100s this afternoon. Temperatures are expected to continue climbing in areas bereft of significant mid/high cloud. Clouds draped over the western half of our forecast area will suppress daytime highs relative to yesterday. Heat Advisories remain in effect through 10 PM this evening due to widespread Moderate (level 2 of 4) to Major (level 3 of 4) HeatRisk. This level of heat affects anyone without cooling/hydration. Ensemble NWP guidance is in concensus that the upper low will slowly track north-northeast through the day, remaining just offshore. This places the forecast area under southerly to southwesterly flow aloft. Synoptic-scale forcing coupled with increasing mid-level moisture may facilitate some high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, tonight, and into Saturday morning, but probabilities are quite low (5-15 percent), highest for the Cascades. The low is then expected (95 percent confidence) to track inland across northern Oregon and Washington during the day Saturday, morphing into an open-wave trough as it moves inland. Its attendant cold frontal passage during the day will help drive breezy to windy westerly winds through the Cascade gaps as well as across the Columbia Basin and portions of the Blue Mountains. Wind Advisories were issued for many public forecast zones across north-central Oregon and south-central Washington, and may be expanded should confidence increase in windy conditions extending farther east across the Columbia Basin and Blue Mountain foothills. While confidence was "only" medium-high (50-90%) in reaching rh thresholds across fire weather zones, due to the magnitude of the forecast winds (10-25 mph with gusts of 25-40 mph, locally higher through especially wind-prone areas), have issued Red Flag Warnings for wind and low relative humidity for the majority of our non-mountain fire weather zones for later Saturday morning (OR/WA693) or Saturday afternoon (WA690, WA691, OR691, OR696, OR698, OR700, and OR703). In addition to Red Flag Warnings for wind/rh, the potential for abundant lightning and gusty outflow winds prompted Red Flag Warnings for WA695 (tonight through Saturday morning) and OR/WA692 (late Saturday morning through Saturday evening). Some breezy conditions are forecast to linger Sunday as the trough exits to the east. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... VFR conditions prevail with lingering smoke in the region. Elevated smoke may make its way down to the surface overnight, bringing a slight chance (5 to 15 percent) of MVFR conditions developing effective for all TAF sites. Breezy to locally windy conditions will develop in the morning to afternoon hours. Some sites will develop winds up to 25 to 35 knots of gusts during the strongest period. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 63 91 50 84 / 10 0 0 0 ALW 70 94 59 85 / 10 0 0 0 PSC 67 96 58 87 / 10 10 0 0 YKM 71 95 58 87 / 10 20 0 0 HRI 69 93 58 86 / 10 10 0 0 ELN 66 88 54 79 / 10 20 0 0 RDM 55 89 45 85 / 10 0 0 0 LGD 65 95 52 87 / 10 20 10 0 GCD 64 95 54 89 / 10 0 0 0 DLS 67 86 60 85 / 10 10 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for WAZ024-026>030- 521-523. Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for WAZ026-522-523. Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday for WAZ024-521. Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM PDT Saturday for WAZ690- 691. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday for WAZ692. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM PDT Saturday for WAZ693. Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 10 PM PDT Saturday for WAZ026. Red Flag Warning from 11 PM this evening to noon PDT Saturday for WAZ695. OR...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for ORZ041-044-049- 050-502-503-505>508-510-511. Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for ORZ041-044-049-050- 502-503-505>507-509>511. Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ041-044- 508-510. Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ691- 696-698-700-703. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ692. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ693. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...95  015 FXUS63 KPAH 212257 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 557 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Daily thunderstorm chances of 15 to 30% are forecast during the afternoon and evening hours Monday through Wednesday. - Temperature and humidity levels will be near typical late August levels through the next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Broad troughing is centered to our east and northeast putting the area in a moderate northwesterly flow aloft. A jet max works in on the backside of this trough through Sunday morning keeping it roughly in place. There is a small window for thundershowers across parts of SEMO Saturday afternoon but the chances are low (15%). By Monday that trough works east far enough to allow the heat and humidity to start to creep back into the area. This opens the potential again for daily mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms with fairly low coverage overall (15-30%). The best chance for activity for now looks to be Wednesday afternoon and evening when a little sharper shortwave pushes through. If any severe weather threat is to emerge in the next 7 days it looks like this could be the period. If the trough position and shear/instability remain consistent we might be able to start messaging a threat, but for now it appears too low predictability/threat for much concern. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 556 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR conditions will be in place through most of this TAF issuance. The exception will be late tonight into early Saturday morning as MIFG could develop at CGI/PAH. Otherwise, winds will be light and variable. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...KC  966 FXUS63 KTOP 212256 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 556 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a low and conditional threat for severe storms as early as late afternoon with more widespread showers and storms anticipated late tonight. - Late afternoon and early evening storms are more likely to be severe with damaging wind gusts (up to around 70 mph) and large hail (to near golfball size) while overnight storms may produce isolated pockets of gusty winds up to 60 mph and small hail. - Weather pattern remains largely unchanged this weekend through most of next week with occasional chances for showers and storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Currently observing elevated showers and storms across NE this afternoon, associated with a mid level perturbation trailing southeast across the central plains. Main question is if these storms will dissipate or maintain themselves as they enter northern Kansas after 2 PM. Upper forcing weakens by late afternoon before a stronger wave arrives late tonight. In the meantime, atmosphere in our northern counties continues to destabilize today as MUCAPE reaches 3000 J/KG in far northeast Kansas after 3 PM. Bulk shear increases by early evening as well to near 50 kts. If storms maintain themselves or redevelop, the atmosphere is supportive of severe wind gusts and large hail. It's important to note that several cams, including the HRRR, have weakened storms before they enter our area so there exists higher than average uncertainty in storm evolution this afternoon. Better chances for showers and storms comes late tonight as a stronger upper trough develops another storm complex over Nebraska. Track of these storms has been most consistent impacting north central Kansas so have placed higher pops there through Saturday morning. Severe probabilities are not as high with overnight convection, however cannot rule out isolated wind gusts to 60 mph and small hail. Residual showers and cloud cover should clear by late morning Saturday as a cooler sfc high slides southward during the afternoon. Highs are a tad lower in the mid to upper 80s, and may fall further into the lower 80s Sunday afternoon, dependent on lingering showers and cloud cover. Ensemble guidance maintains a strong consensus for the upper ridge to stay suppressed over the Southwest, leaving the Central Plains within an active shortwave pattern Sunday through next week. Maintained slight chance pops Sunday afternoon as a stronger vort max approaches the region, increasing pops overnight as the enhanced LLJ aids in a cluster of storms dropping southeast out of NE. Additional upper disturbances within the northwest flow may bring renewed shower and storm chances Tuesday evening and Thursday. Temperatures through next week are near normal for this time of year in the upper 80s to low 90s for highs. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 556 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 CAMs continue to show the isolated TSRA falling apart between 00Z and 01Z, with a better signal for convection moving through after 10Z Saturday. Would like to see convection develop upstream before going with more than a PROB30 group. Outside of any precip, VFR conditions are progged to persist with light sfc winds. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Prieto AVIATION...Wolters  947 FXUS64 KAMA 212255 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 555 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 107 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Widespread heat across the area with potential expansion of heat headlines. Several areas expected to be 105-108 today and a degree or two warmer on Saturday continuing into Monday - Isolated to widely scattered afternoon convection possible this afternoon and again on Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 107 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Satellite imagery showing remnants of eastern OK MCS moving south- southeast towards the Arklatex. Outflow from this MCS and associated southeasterly winds are in western OK and some enhancement in the cu field is noted at this time just south of GAG. Surface obs showing westerly winds over the central and southern TX Panhandle while north-northwest winds are observed in the northern panhandle. Models showing that surface winds in our area are forecast to become southerly late this afternoon and as convective temps are reached a few isolated to widely scattered storms will be possible for a short time. Warm mid level temps and lack of shear will preclude any real storm organization although there could be some gusty winds as these storms collapse. On Saturday a similar situation can be expected although there will be a boundary oriented more northwest to southeast through the CWA. Widely scattered storms are expected in the late afternoon across this area. CAPE values will not be impressive, generally 750-1000 j/kg. However, inverted V profiles, DCAPE values over 1700 and temp-dwpt spreads of 50-60 degrees suggests strong winds would be the main threat with these storms. The upper level high pressure and ridge continue to amplify and slowly shift east. This will lead to hot temps and heat headlines through the early portion of the weekend with temps of 105-109. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 107 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 High pressure ridge shifts slowly east and as such the hottest temperatures can be expected Saturday through Monday. A shortwave trough riding over the ridge by Monday will help temper the ridge and allow for more substantial convective development over the higher terrain in CO/NM. The steering pattern will be favorable for this activity to enter into the panhandle and therefore pops will increase. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 547 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Winds will be light around 5 to 10 kts and out of south to southwest at KAMA, and more variable at KDHT and KGUY as nearby boundary has light and variable winds. Isolated storms in the central Panhandles, will likely avoid the terminals, but could result in brief amendments should a storm pop up, or move into the area. Weber && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ005-008>010-014- 015-018>020-317. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ018>020-317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KP LONG TERM....KP AVIATION...89