209 FXUS62 KMFL 212300 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 700 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 700 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Heat index values peak between 105-110 degrees today with a Heat Advisory in effect only for Miami-Dade and Broward counties. - Scattered thunderstorms expected after midday and into the evening. A couple of stronger storms are possible that could produce near-severe winds. && .UPDATE... Issued at 335 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Water vapor satellite imagery shows a moister air mass continuing to overspread South Florida today, with recent ACARS sounding data showing PWATs around 1.9 inches. Isolated showers and thunderstorms have begun forming this afternoon along the Atlantic sea breeze, which has remained pinned close to the East Coast under persistent southwesterly flow. High-resolution model guidance continues to show increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the eastern half of South Florida and around Lake Okeechobee through the rest of the afternoon into the early evening, with outflow boundaries potentially driving some activity into SW Florida around sunset. Primary threats include gusty winds, frequent lightning, and localized heavy rainfall, though an isolated severe storm cannot be completely ruled out. Convection is expected to gradually dissipate following the loss of daytime heating after sunset. Overnight lows tonight will range from the low 80s along the coasts to the mid 70s inland. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 116 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 As the ridge in the Southwestern US continues to strengthen, increased jet dynamics will result in an amplified trough across most of the Eastern Seaboard through this weekend. The base of the trough is not anticipated to make it all the way to South Florida and the overall flow pattern will remain largely on the weaker side, but this enhanced troughing pattern is expected to keep a prevailing southerly/south-southwesterly flow pattern in place today and Saturday. Therefore, with abundant moisture advection continuing and elevated PWATs of 1.7-2.0" or even more in some areas, diurnal heating and sea breeze circulations each day will have the necessary ingredients to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. With the primary south to south-southwest flow, this will favor interior and Southeast Florida for highest rain chances both today and on Saturday as showers and storms are expected to be the most widespread in these areas. Some activity will be observed across Southwest Florida as well, just not as widespread and thus rain chances are between 30-50% there versus 50-70% across Southeast Florida. Model soundings do highlight adequate SBCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg as well as inverted-V signatures and steep low level lapse rates, so there will be an outside chance for an isolated severe storm or two via gusty winds. Otherwise, the primary hazards will be heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flooding in poor drainage areas, and sub-severe strong wind gusts. High temperatures the next couple days will remain in the low to mid 90s. The deeper moisture will also keep dew points in the mid to upper 70s each day, thus maximum heat index values are anticipated to remain elevated up to the 105-110F range. Isolated locations could experience heat index values a couple of degrees higher for a short period of time. With the expectation of some increased cloud cover today and perhaps slightly lower dew points, it has been decided to only issue a Heat Advisory for Miami-Dade and Broward counties from 11AM - 6PM today. HREF probabilities currently indicate a 10% or less chance for heat indices to reach 108F or higher. Depending on how conditions are trending through the morning, a short-fused expansion of the advisory will be possible but is not imminent. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 116 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 As the trough draped across the Eastern Seaboard starts to erode early next week, the local wind regime will start to shift back to what we typically see in the summer time here in South Florida with low level flow being dominated by the Atlantic sea breeze. This will cause diurnal convection to start focusing back over both the interior and Southwest Florida rather than Southeast Florida like has been observed recently. Starting Monday, the highest rain chances (60-80%) will begin to focus across Southwest Florida and this will last through the end of the long term period. Latest guidance shows some slightly drier air (PWATs falling back below 1.8-2.0") this weekend, which could result in some slightly lower dew points that end the current streak of consecutive days with Heat Advisories. There is also potential for another Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to impact the area late in the weekend and early next week, but guidance highlights this SAL breaking up upon it's arrival and thus it's influence on a return to hot conditions should be less than the previous round. High temperatures are projected to remain in the low to mid 90s each day with overnight lows ranging from the low 70s across the interior and lake regions to the upper 70s and low 80s along the coastal metros. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 700 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Southeasterly winds around 10 kts at east coast terminals will become L/V overnight, then increase after 16Z as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland. Shower and thunderstorm development may require short-fused AMDs and TEMPOs for some east coast terminals after 20Z. Onshore winds at KAPF will become L/V overnight, then increase after 16Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 116 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Gentle west-southwest winds are expected across the Gulf waters today with southerly winds continuing across the Atlantic. The Atlantic winds will eventually become more southeasterly over the weekend. Seas will remain at 1-2 feet or less each day across all local waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late each day and in the late night hours which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 80 94 79 93 / 10 30 20 60 West Kendall 78 94 77 92 / 10 40 20 70 Opa-Locka 79 94 79 93 / 10 40 10 60 Homestead 79 93 79 92 / 10 30 20 60 Fort Lauderdale 80 93 80 92 / 10 30 10 50 N Ft Lauderdale 80 93 80 93 / 10 30 10 50 Pembroke Pines 80 93 80 93 / 10 40 10 50 West Palm Beach 79 94 78 94 / 10 40 10 50 Boca Raton 79 92 79 92 / 10 30 10 50 Naples 79 91 79 91 / 10 20 10 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...DPB  333 FXUS64 KCRP 212302 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 602 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 541 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Coastal Plains through 8 PM this evening - Major risk of heat-related impacts continue into next week with peak afternoon heat indices around 110 - Daily elevated fire weather conditions over the Brush Country && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Moisture will remain below normal through at least Monday as a ridge meanders over the south to southwest CONUS, continuing hot and rain- free conditions across South Texas. Low-level moisture increases a tad beyond Monday of next week, adding an isolated shower threat along the seabreeze but the overall messaging won't change. Heat will remain our primary concern with heat indices peaking around 110 and UIL WBGT risk moderate to high daily. Max temperatures in the low 90s along the coast to the triple digits inland with minimum temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Elevated fire weather conditions over the Brush Country is our secondary concern but winds remaining relatively light below 20 mph limits the risk factor. Continue to practice heat safety: look before you lock, limit outdoor exposure, drink plenty of water, and take frequent breaks. For more safety information please visit weather.gov/heatsafety. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 541 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR conditions will continue, with some brief MVFR/IFR ceilings/visibility for ALI and VCt from around 09Z-14Z. Generally south to southeast winds will be below 12 knots overnight, before gusts to around 20 knots return midday Saturday. && .MARINE... Issued at 120 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Light to moderate (BF 2-4) onshore breezes will continue through the period, with occasional fresh (BF 5) breezes possible during the late afternoon/evening hours, especially south of Port Aransas. Seas are expected to remain around 2-3 feet. Rain chances will remain near zero into next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 76 97 76 96 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 75 103 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 78 106 78 105 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 74 104 73 103 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 80 93 81 93 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 77 106 76 106 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 75 101 74 100 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 81 91 80 91 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ230>234-241>247- 342>344-346-347. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EMF/94 AVIATION...LS/77  485 FXUS64 KSJT 212304 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 604 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Big Country, Heartland and Concho Valley areas this afternoon and again on Saturday afternoon. - Hot and mainly dry weather will persist through next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Starting to feel like a broken with the same song stuck playing, but hot continues as the upper ridge dominates. At least we didn't say dry this time although most areas will remain dry as will. Based on more of the CAMs showing isolated convection with a weak shortwave tomorrow afternoon and evening, did add 10% POPs over more of the area and mention isolated thunderstorms possible. Otherwise, forecast highs expected to be very near todays highs and extended the Heat Advisory into Saturday afternoon as well. Will need to keep an eye on morning lows. So far this week, morning lows have been able to drop into the 70s (and even 60s at times) with the dry air mass in place. But morning lows are creeping up towards the upper 70s across the Big Country. This makes the heat a little more unbearable and increases the risk and heat stress. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Friday) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Again, not much to change with the ridge persisting through the next week and likely even longer. Center of the upper high does shift a little farther west and this may allow temperatures to at least cool enough to cut a few counties out of the Heat Advisory. Temperatures are still likely to exceed 100 degrees though. Of note again, Abilene has already hit 100 degrees this afternoon, marking the 20th consecutive day. Forecast shows 100+ each day this week for Abilene which means that their run at their record of 30 consecutive days will be occurring next weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 604 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours across the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 79 106 81 106 / 0 0 10 0 San Angelo 75 104 77 104 / 0 0 10 0 Junction 73 102 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 75 105 78 105 / 0 0 10 0 Sweetwater 78 106 80 106 / 0 0 10 0 Ozona 73 99 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 74 102 76 102 / 0 0 10 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan- Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Jones-McCulloch-Nolan-Runnels- San Saba-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for Brown-Callahan- Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Jones-McCulloch-Nolan-Runnels- San Saba-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...21  440 FXUS65 KFGZ 212303 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 403 PM MST Fri Aug 21 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for showers/thunderstorms through the weekend/first half of next week, primarily across the higher terrain. Drier and warmer conditions may return by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION...A strong area of high pressure continues to linger over the Four Corners. Although the synoptic pattern would typically bring an active monsoon day, early morning cloud cover brought enough stabilization to keep things fairly quiet today. We are still expecting isolated to scattered showers throughout the afternoon and evening, primarily along the Mogollon Rim and northward. But overall should be a downturn in activity compared to yesterday. For the weekend/early next week, the area of high pressure will wobble around the Southwest, keeping daily chances for showers/storms. Greatest coverage looks to be across the higher terrain each afternoon/evening. Outside of daily precipitation chances, daytime highs will remain above normal. In typical monsoon fashion, some days will be more active than others, but we'll have a better idea on which days those will be as we move through the period. For now, be sure to check the forecast prior to enjoying outdoor activities, and be sure to have a way to receive weather alerts. Middle to late next week...model guidance suggests a few different solutions, but we could see a brief drying/warming trend. There could still be chances for showers/storms across the White Mountains and eastern Rim, but widespread activity doesn't look to be the case as of now. In addition, there may need to be further discussion on heat products for the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION...Saturday 22/00Z through Sunday 23/00Z...Mainly VFR, with brief/localized MVFR in isolated showers and thunderstorms, winding down by 03Z. Another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms after 18Z Saturday, continuing into early evening. Daytime winds southwest to northwest at 5-15 kts, light and variable overnight. Gusty/erratic winds up to 40 kts in stronger storms. OUTLOOK...Sunday 23/00Z through Tuesday 25/00Z...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon, highest coverage over the higher terrain. Brief/localized MVFR and wind gusts to 40 kts in stronger storms. Daytime winds southwest to west at 5-15 kts. Light and variable or terrain driven winds overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER...Rest of today through Sunday...Look for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and early evening across northern Arizona with the main focus over and near the White Mountains and along and to the north of the Mogollon Rim. Stronger storms will bring hail, gusty and erratic winds, and localized heavy rainfall. Away from storms, winds look to be southwest to northwest 5-15 mph each day, becoming variable in the evening and overnight. Monday through Wednesday...Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday, becoming more isolated on Tuesday and Wednesday. Stronger storms will bring hail, gusty and erratic winds, and localized heavy rainfall. Winds southwest to west at 5-15 mph each day, with gusty and erratic winds possible near storms. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Konieczny AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...Schank For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  469 FXUS66 KLOX 212304 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 404 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION .SYNOPSIS...21/1241 PM. Minimal changes expected through the weekend with seasonably warm temperatures. Patchy night and morning low clouds and fog will be confined to coastal areas. Additional warming is possible early next week as high pressure tries to build in from the southeast. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...21/103 PM. Southern California continues to be in between an upper level low over the Pac NW and a strong 598dam high over the 4 corners region. Clockwise rotation around the high continues to usher in moisture from the south, though that tap is expected be drying up this weekend into early next week so chances for any additional showers locally is under 10% and only for far eastern LA County. Model guidance continues to indicate very little change in temperatures through next Monday. Above normal by 4-8 degrees but not quite high enough for widespread heat hazards. There will be pockets of LA County that could reach moderate to locally major heat risk this weekend, namely the western San Fernando Valley as well as southeastern LA County between Compton and Norwalk, but not widespread enough for an advisory. .LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...21/156 PM. High pressure is expected to build back into California starting next Tuesday while at the same time pressure gradients from the north and east weaken. With high temperatures already on the verge of advisories and warnings through early next week, the next burst of heat Tuesday and beyond has at least a 40-60% chance pushing that over the edge to at least heat advisory levels and possibly into warning level, particularly inland areas. How widespread the heat hazards are will be largely be determined by the pressure gradients. If the gradients trend towards the 75th percentile or higher, which roughly would be around -3mb LAX-DAG and -4mb LAX-BFL, temperatures would on the higher side with numerous excessive heat warnings likely. If gradients have less of an offshore component per the latest GFS then temperatures will still be hot but at least a few degrees cooler. The latter scenario being the most likely outcome. At this time not seeing any big subtropical push next week, though there is minor peak in PW's on Tuesday and early Wednesday at around 1.2". && .AVIATION...21/2303Z. At 2216Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 600 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 1900 feet with a temperature of 30 C. High confidence in VFR TAF for sites: KPRB, KSBA, KVNY, KBUR, KPMD, KWJF. Chances for LIFR/IFR ceilings tonight at KSBP (80%) KSMX (100%) KOXR (10%) KCMA (20%). Chances for IFR/MVFR ceilings tonight at KSMO (15%) KLAX (20%) KLGB (20%). KLAX...High confidence in VFR TAF. Except 22/10-16Z which has a 20% chance of BKN008-012. No significant east wind component is expected. KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF. No wind issues expected. && .MARINE...21/120 PM. High risk of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions continuing over the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island through Saturday night, lowering to moderate for Sunday and Monday. There is a moderate risk for the nearshore Central Coast waters each afternoon and evening through Saturday, lowering for Sunday and Monday. Elsewhere, the risk for SCA is low, with seasonal winds likely. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 AM PDT Saturday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT Sunday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Monday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). &&$$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...Black MARINE...RK SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  544 FXUS61 KBOX 212305 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 705 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Rip Current Statement has been issued for Plymouth and Barnstable Counties for Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Below normal temperatures and overcast conditions continue through the weekend. Drizzle/misty weather through Saturday then a period of heavier rain possible overnight into Sunday. - Drier and warmer next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Below normal temperatures and overcast conditions continue through the weekend. Drizzle/misty weather through Saturday then a period of heavier rain possible overnight into Sunday. The low pressure system that's brought the misty and overcast weather today has dipped a little further south of Long Island than previously expected. The latest guidance suite is projecting the low slowly moves east through today then swings northeast around Nantucket tonight into Saturday. The interior is more likely to remain dry with a few pockets of mist through the rest of today, but eastern and Southeast MA and RI should see the mist linger with periodic light showers into Saturday. Most of southern New England should see a dry Saturday morning, except the Cape/Islands could see a few lingering showers. As the low weakens and wraps around the Cape Saturday, another round of heavier showers is expected to push into southern New England later Saturday evening into the overnight period. This round has the potential to develop a few heavier, convective bands of rain given the higher PWATs near 2.0" and favorable IVT. Guidance is split a few different ways on QPF totals: Global ensembles show generally a 30 to 40 percent chance of 1.0" in 24 hours over the Cape/Islands by sunrise Sunday, except the GFS ensemble which indicates much less rainfall and also located further offshore. CAM and higher resolution guidance has the same bullseye on the Cape, but also identifies and secondary precip max approaching 1.0" in 24 hours across interior CT and western MA. Given how the guidance is struggling to resolve the exact track of the low due to the unexpected southern drop today, confidence is on the lower end specifically regarding rainfall across the interior, as a little wobbling east or west in the northeastward progression of the low will have a larger impact on precip totals. More of the same on Sunday as a cold front slowly approaches, sending moisture from the south out ahead of it. NE/E flow early becomes southerly advecting 70+ dewpoints into the region with PWATs 2+ inches. This while the surface low lifts north and east with the best convergence/forcing in the early morning with a lull possible in the late morning/afternoon then potential for some showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Given those dewpoints, CAPE values jump to 500-1000 J/kg and depending on how quickly the cold front arrives it could overcome marginal lapse rates to produce a strong to severe storm, especially in western SNE, given 0-6 km bulk shear values of 50+ kts. Otherwise, temperatures through the first half of the weekend will remain below seasonable under prolonged onshore/northeasterly flow... highs likely remain in the upper 60s to low 70s through Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier and warmer next week. By Monday the cold front has pushed through and ushers in a much drier and warmer start to the week. Dewpoints fall from near 65-70F Sun to 45-50F Mon. Rising heights and building surface high pressure will help to keep the forecast drier with perhaps some diurnal showers Tue under a weak shortwave. Otherwise, generally zonal flow takes hold through at least Thursday with no significant disturbances on the horizon, and no intrusions of anomalous heat or cold. Temperatures remain comfortable ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00z TAF Update: Tonight into Saturday: Moderate confidence. IFR for southeast MA but ceilings should deteriorate down to MVFR-IFR levels tonight and overnight northward to BOS, BED and ORH. Intervals of mist and drizzle at 4-6 SM. BDL should stay BKN VFR most of the night. Conditions should then generally hold steady into Sat daytime hrs. N to NE winds 5-10 kt. Saturday Night: Moderate confidence. Conditions to turn to widespread MVFR-IFR with a round of steadier light to moderate rain after approximately 06z Sunday; timing is uncertain and subject to further adjustment. NE to N winds 5-10 kt. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Mainly OVC VFR ceilings today with NE winds around 10 kt, with off-and-on mist and drizzle. Categories more likely to deteriorate to sub-VFR ceilings with 4-6 SM BR/DZ tonight. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Stronger confidence in prevailing VFR and relatively drier weather. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Saturday Night...High confidence. Gusty NE winds near 25kts and waves near 5 ft across the southern waters gradually diminish through this evening and into tonight as the low weakens and moves further offshore. Otherwise, winds generally 18-20 kts and seas 3-4 ft through most of Saturday become more variable as the low breaks down Saturday night into Sunday morning. Despite the lower wave heights, the prolonged northeasterly flow will cause higher swells and longer swell periods Saturday which has prompted a Rip Current Statement for Plymouth and Barnstable Counties. Eastern, ocean-facing beaches will be primarily affected, especially across the northern portion of Cape Cod; however, bay- facing beaches may also experience rip currents. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Monday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Tuesday through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday afternoon for MAZ019-022. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BW/McMinn AVIATION...Loconto/BW MARINE...McMinn  572 FXUS64 KLUB 212306 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 606 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 602 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Triple digit heat will continue through at least the middle of next week, with record-challenging highs likely this weekend. - A few isolated thunderstorms are expected over the next few evenings, but most locations will remain dry. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 103 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Water vapor imagery at midday Friday shows a familiar pattern with broad upper ridging centered near the Four Corners and a belt of modestly unsettled northwest flow aloft positioned over the central and northern plains states. A few small disturbances are visible rounding the edge of the ridge to our north and east, but will remain too distant to provide much in the way of large-scale forcing for ascent. Still, given the very strong diurnal heating (temperatures off the Caprock on the way to 105+), convective temperatures will easily be breached this afternoon with forecast soundings depicting minimal inhibition. As a result, we do expect a few isolated storms to develop today, but confidence in exactly where these occur is low and could be essentially anywhere across the forecast area. Storms which do develop will be capable of brief downpours and strong wind gusts, but this activity should dissipate quickly after sunset resulting in a quiet and mild overnight period. Saturday will turn out very similar to today given a similar synoptic setup, although highs will likely be a few degrees warmer given a slight eastward shift of the ridge aloft. With temperatures again reaching the 105 to 109 degree range near and east of I-27, a Heat Advisory has been issued for roughly the the eastern half of our forecast area for Saturday afternoon. Another round of isolated to perhaps scattered storms also appears likely heading into Saturday evening, with the best chances favoring the SE TX Panhandle as a modified outflow boundary moves southward over western OK. Storm chances decrease farther west, but strong heating could again result in a couple of isolated short-lived cells elsewhere as well. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 103 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Summer heat continues through much of the next seven days, with Sunday and Monday currently expected to be the hottest days of the forecast period. Highs will easily surpass 105 off the Caprock both days, and may even exceed extreme heat criteria of 110 as well. Current NBM probs indicate about a 40-70% chance of exceeding 110 degrees mainly in the lower elevations near and just west of Childress on both Sunday and Monday afternoons. Most areas on the Caprock will likely top out near or just above 105, which is still nearing record highs this time of year. Storm chances will fall back below 10 percent during this time as well given unfavorable positioning of the ridge directly overhead. Model consensus then indicates that the ridge will flatten and shift back westward toward the middle of the week which will bring a very modest decrease in temperatures, although highs will remain above normal. Depending on the exact position of the ridge, storm chances may also increase by Wednesday or Thursday as modest northwest flow aloft reestablishes over the region, but potential for widespread rainfall still appears very low at this time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 602 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Thunderstorms are currently developing between KPVW and KCDS. Very small chance for storms to develop around any terminal, therefore have left out of TAF. Although these storms are expected to remain sub-severe, could see some erratic strong wind gusts. Light southerly winds will continue through the evening. Winds will gradually shift to the west by early Saturday morning. Winds will vary between west to southwest Saturday afternoon. Another round of thunderstorms will be possible Saturday evening, especially around KCDS. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-030>032- 036>038-042>044. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ024>026- 030>032-035>038-041>044. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...10  012 FXUS64 KLZK 212310 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 610 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 228 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 -A slight cooling of high temperatures from extreme values are expected statewide over the next several days. -POP chances will be present over the next few days for portions of Arkansas, but any rain or storms that materialize will be isolated and not amount to much total rainfall. -Heat safety must still be practiced as temperatures remain across most of the state above average for this time of the year. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Currently, as of 2 AM CDT, a stationary boundary remains draped along the I-40 corridor across central Arkansas. This boundary is expected to gradually track southward as a weak cold front into southern Arkansas today. In response, high temperatures across much of the state will experience a very limited form of relief. Instead of widespread 100F to 105F or greater temperatures across a large part of the state, many locations across Arkansas may only reach the upper 90s, possibly ending several streaks statewide of multiple 100 degree or higher days on Friday. This trend is expected to continue over the next several days as high temperatures will still peak well above normal for this time of the year across most of the state, but may struggle to reach 100 degrees in many locations. The trend is the result of northwesterly flow aloft over Arkansas as the upper lvl ridge is expected to remain cemented over the Four Corners region of the CONUS. In response, a series of frontal boundaries are expected to move through the state which will introduce limited increases in chances for POPs, increased cloud cover, and a slight reduction in temperatures overall. A continued pattern of hot and dry conditions are expected to continue overall across the state, but oppressive temperatures, in the the form of extreme high air temperatures are not expected to be near the values experience over the last several days. Unfortunately, heat index values will remain between 105 and 109 degrees across most of central and southern Arkansas prompting the continuation of the Heat Advisory for today. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR condns are expected thru much of the new TAF PD. Recent radar imgry depicted a bndry moving Wwrd towards Cntrl AR, and an intermittent Erly wdshft is expected beyond 22/00Z over Cntrl terminals, w/ winds settling thereafter. Sat, convective activity is expected to move SEwrd thru the region, b/w the 18Z-00Z timeframe, but there is still large uncertainty in covg, exact timing, and intensity. Have introduced broad PROB30 groups for now, but intermittent MVFR condns wl be possible invof convection Sat aftn, w/ variable and gusty winds as well. Otherwise, expect light WNWrly to Nrly winds Sat aftn. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 74 99 71 95 / 0 30 20 10 Camden AR 73 99 71 98 / 10 20 40 10 Harrison AR 72 93 68 90 / 20 30 10 10 Hot Springs AR 74 99 72 97 / 20 40 50 10 Little Rock AR 76 99 74 97 / 10 20 40 10 Monticello AR 75 99 73 98 / 0 20 20 20 Mount Ida AR 72 97 70 96 / 20 40 40 10 Mountain Home AR 72 94 68 91 / 10 30 10 0 Newport AR 73 97 71 94 / 0 30 20 0 Pine Bluff AR 73 98 71 96 / 10 20 30 10 Russellville AR 74 98 72 95 / 20 50 30 10 Searcy AR 72 98 71 95 / 10 30 20 10 Stuttgart AR 74 98 73 96 / 0 20 20 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ031-032-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238- 240-241-340-341. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ052-053- 062>069. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...72  162 FXUS63 KIWX 212312 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 712 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - 30-60% chances for scattered rain and storms arrive tonight through Saturday. An isolated strong storm capable of gusty winds and brief heavy rain is possible west of US-31 late this evening and east of I-69 Saturday afternoon. - Dangerous swimming conditions expected for southeast Lake Michigan beaches on Saturday and Sunday with High Swim risks both days. Northwest winds will gust to 30 mph with waves of 3 to 5 feet. - Dry weather returns Sunday and Monday with below normal temperatures and low humidity. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 132 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 An upper level low over the Hudson Bay will be the focus of the forecast for the next 36-48 hours, as the attendant cold front with this system sweeps through our area and brings periodic chances for rain and storms tonight through early Sunday. Mainly dry conditions are expected to continue this afternoon, however, isolated showers and storms remain possible through sunset east of I-69 with a leading 500 mb shortwave associated with the upper level low. Scattered cumulus development is already noted on visible satellite imagery this afternoon. Isolated showers are also likely in the vicinity of Lake Michigan this afternoon where a dying convection complex from upstream is moving in. Into this evening, with the cold front still back in Wisconsin and the upper level trough expected to begin to dig into the Great Lakes, we will have to watch what additional development there is upstream over southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. CAMs are in fairly good agreement in a cluster of storms developing this evening to our northwest and diving southeast after sunset. Given that shear and instability will wane after sunset, these storms should be diminishing by the time they reach northwest and north central Indiana tonight. Can't rule out an isolated gusty storm or two but not expecting much if any severe threat. Locations along and east of I-69 will remain dry until daybreak Saturday. Showers gradually become more numerous as the front pushes eastward and as the upper level trough amplifies during the morning and early afternoon hours on Saturday. Have maintained PoPs between 30-60% on Saturday, with the highest chances in northwest Ohio. With the front expected to come through between the morning and early afternoon hours, this is not the most favorable diurnal timeframe for storms. Again, can't rule out an isolated strong storm or two (especially in northwest Ohio) as a corridor of up to 1500 MLCAPE could develop east of I-69, but the likelihood of organized severe weather tomorrow is low given marginal shear of 20-30 kts and poor low/mid level lapse rates. With a tightening pressure gradient and strong cyclonic flow on the backside of the departing front on Saturday evening, I wouldn't be surprised if widely scattered lake effect showers develop downwind of Lake Michigan for several hours late Saturday into early Sunday. Winds will be breezy out of the northwest through the remainder of the weekend with northwest winds gusting as high as 25 to 30 mph. The aforementioned frontal passage is expected to stir up southern Lake Michigan, generating large waves and dangerous currents throughout the weekend. Northwest, onshore flow with northwest winds gusting to 30 mph will allow for waves to build to 3 to 5 feet with strong currents expected. High Swim Risks will be in place both days this weekend. Beach Hazards Statements will need to be issued this afternoon for Berrien and La Porte counties at least for Saturday. There will be a lull in winds and possibly waves overnight before dangerous conditions ramp up again into Sunday, with additional headlines likely needed. Heed beach flags/lifeguards and stay out of the water! High pressure builds into the Great Lakes and Midwest regions again by Sunday, giving us the first taste of fall as temperatures and dewpoints fall to comfortable levels. Temperatures will be slightly below normal on Sunday and Monday with highs in the low to mid 70s with northwest flow behind the cold frontal passage. A few crisp nights are ahead Sunday night and Monday night with lows in the low to mid 50s. With much drier air building in, dewpoints only in the 50s will make for several nice days! Another cold front moves in Wednesday with low chances (20-30%) for rain/storms maintained. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 706 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Isolated thunderstorms are on a down trend with an impending loss of daytime heating. Attention now turns to TSRA over Chicagoland associated with a pre-frontal trough and cold front bisecting Wisconsin. Lackluster timing to KSBN supports a weakening trend with this activity yet a modest 850-mb jet likely supports disorganized -TSRA in the vicinity of 06z for KSBN; later for KFWA (low confidence at KFWA). The cold front moves through after 12z bringing renewed, scattered showers and increasing northwesterly wind. MVFR stratus is favored behind the front. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Saturday for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...Brown  257 FXUS61 KALY 212314 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 714 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SPC has placed a Marginal Risk for isolated severe thunderstorms for areas mainly south and east of Albany for Sunday (Day 3). Have also lowered forecast max temps from NBM Sunday due to expected cloud coverage and some showers/thunderstorms. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) After a mainly dry Saturday, at least scattered showers/thunderstorms arrive late Saturday night and continue through Sunday afternoon, with isolated severe thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon. 2) Cooler than normal temperatures are expected through early next week, with shower chances persisting especially areas near and north of I-90. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... After a relatively dry Saturday with increasing clouds, showers develop from southwest to northeast across the region Saturday night, mainly after midnight. There remains uncertainty regarding how widespread shower coverage and intensity become, as some higher-res CAMs suggest a weak wave of low pressure tracks northward along mid Atlantic coast into southern New England, potentially bringing a swatch of locally moderate to heavy rain across portions of eastern NY. Will need to watch trends over the next 24-hours to see if these more extreme CAMs are being influenced by convective feedback processes or not. 12Z/21 HREFs indicating 6-hour probs for >1"/rainfall ending 8 AM Sunday at 20-30%, and 10-20% for >2" during this time period, mainly reflecting the higher QPF CAMs. After the initial showers/embedded thunderstorms early Sunday morning, an occluded front is expected to cross the region between mid morning and mid afternoon. Depending on the timing of this front, there is a possibility for enough instability (CAPES 500-1000 J/kg) to build amid 0-6 km shear of 35-40 KT for some stronger low-topped thunderstorms to develop. Instability is greatest for areas mainly south and east of Albany during Sunday afternoon, assuming a slower frontal passage. However, upper level forcing looks stronger across the SW Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley region. SPC Day 3 convective outlook has placed areas mainly south/east of I-88 in the Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms, mainly for isolated instances of damaging wind gusts, as well as severe hail given the deep layer shear and cooling mid levels. KEY MESSAGE 2... Upper level low/cold pool across the eastern Great Lakes region will slowly meander north/northeast early next week, allowing below normal temperatures to persist. In addition, as weak upper level disturbance pivot around the eastern periphery of the main upper level low, forcing and shallow instability will allow for scattered showers and possible low-topped thunderstorms Monday afternoon/evening, and perhaps again late Tuesday, especially areas near and north of I-90 in closer proximity to the upper level low. Can not rule out some locally gusty winds and small hail within any taller convective elements/clusters that develop. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Flying conditions are currently VFR across the region with just few-sct lingering cumulus clouds and some thin cirrus as well. Over the next few hours, the cumulus clouds will generally be dissipating. While some high clouds will remain through much of the overnight, the coverage will decrease somewhat and they will remain rather thin. Light north to northeast surface winds around 5 kts will become lighter overnight and may sites will become calm for the late night hours. Some radiational fog may develop overnight, mainly for KGFL after 06z. A brief period of some fog cannot be ruled out at KALB and KPSF, but confidence is higher at KGFL at this time. Within any fog, IFR visibility may occur, but any fog will dissipate around or shortly after daybreak. During the day on Saturday, flying conditions will be VFR for all sites through the entire day. Based off the latest CAMs, it should stay rain-free through the day, but ceilings will thicken and lower through the day. It still should stay VFR, but bkn cigs around 4-6 kft are expected by the afternoon and evening hours for all sites. Surface winds will become southeast at 5-10 kts for all sites. Outlook... Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12/24 AVIATION...27  598 FXUS62 KCHS 212320 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 720 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Heat Advisory has been cancelled. Saturday will be another hot and humid day, but should be more typical of late August with high temperatures only a degree or two above normal in the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints will remain elevated in the mid to upper 70s along the coast, and the result is expected to be heat indices more commonly in the 100-105 degree range across the forecast area. There could be a small area along the immediate coast that could briefly rise to around 108 degrees, but at this time we do not anticipate sufficient areal or temporal coverage to warrant any Heat Advisories. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon. An increased risk for showers and thunderstorms will continue through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon. An increased risk for showers and thunderstorms will continue through Saturday. Rest of Today: The ridging aloft that has been driving the hot and humid conditions this last week has been replaced by troughing along the east coast. A shortwave trough will ripple across the southern periphery of the large scale troughing this afternoon and into tonight. At the surface a cold front will approach the region from the W/NW. Scattered to widespread convection is expected this afternoon as the nearby front aids the sea breeze as an extra forcing mechanism. CAMs are not in great agreement with the overall picture of this afternoon and the current forecast features the pure NBM as it appears to be a good middle ground amongst the suite of guidance. Isolated convection is forecast to fire along the sea breeze this afternoon with additional storms forming upstream across the SC Upstate/SC Midlands. These additional storms will then progress towards the local forecast area around sunset this evening. Given the hot and humid airmass strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with any storm that is able to form. SPC Mesoanalysis shows that there is roughly 1500 J/kg of ML CAPE across the forecast area as of noon. This is forecast to increase to around 2000 J/kg by this afternoon. DCAPE values are also forecast to reach upwards of 1000 J/kg. Therefore, damaging wind gusts are the main hazards with any strong/severe storm. Additionally, there is a threat of heavy rainfall with any storm as storm motion will be slow. The 12Z KCHS RAOB sounding had a PWAT of 2.19", which is above the 90th percentile according to SPC Climatology. The boundary from Friday should be positioned nearly right across the forecast area to begin Saturday. The biggest change should come in the depth of available moisture as drier mid and upper level air begins to infiltrate from the west throughout the day. In fact, some model guidance suggests that precipitable water values will fall to less than 1.5 inches across our far inland tier of counties while values up to 2 inches persist along the coastal corridor. There is decent agreement among the hi-res models and the HREF that the best convective coverage should occur along and east of I-95 with development beginning by around midday. Model soundings aren't don't suggest a particularly high severe weather threat, but there could still be an isolated strong to marginally severe storm where boundary interactions enhance updraft strength. Instead, there could be more a locally heavy rainfall threat, primarily from the Charleston metro area and to the northeast. Sunday Onward: The aforementioned drier air should spread across the area Sunday into Monday and yield little to no convection at all. However, this should begin to recover starting Tuesday and into the middle of the week with a return to more typical diurnal convective coverage. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 22/00z TAFs: KCHS/KJZI: Convection to the west is expected to remain west of the terminals this evening. As an impulse moves up the coast late, another round of showers/tstms could develop along the lower South Carolian coast and impact the terminals. Confidence in this scenario is only modest at best and details are uncertain. PROB30 groups for tstms were included 07-10z at both KCHS and KJZI to account for this. Another round of shower/tstms could bring impacts during the late afternoon. PROB30 groups for TSRA were included 21-00z to trend. KSAV: Convection to the west is expected to weak as it approached the terminal through 03z. While impacts are possible, current trends suggest most of this should remain to the north. A last minute change may be needed prior to issuance time. Another round of shower/tstms could bring impacts during the late afternoon. PROB30 groups for TSRA were included 21-00z to trend. Extended Aviation Outlook: Thunderstorms will again be a concern Saturday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. && .MARINE... Rest of Today: No significant marine concerns are expected across the local waters through today, with winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory criteria. A typical summertime pattern will dominate with generally south- southwesterly flow around 10 kt and seas 2-3 ft. Saturday through Wednesday: Saturday could bring a period of modestly stronger southwest flow late in the day and into the evening, though wind speeds should top out in the 15-20 knot range. Perhaps the main concern for Saturday will be thunderstorms which are expected to develop along the coast and move out into the coastal waters, potentially producing strong wind gusts and frequent lightning. Thereafter, conditions look pretty typical of summer and should remain well below Small Craft Advisory thresholds through mid week. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: August 21: KCHS: 79/2010 KCXM: 82/2023 KSAV: 80/1902 August 24: KCHS: 76/2010 August 25: KCHS: 77/1982 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$  692 FXUS63 KBIS 212321 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 621 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near average temperatures are favored to continue through next week, with Monday being a slightly warmer day. - Medium chances (30 to 60 percent) for showers and thunderstorms late Saturday night through Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Showers and thundershowers have exited the forecast area. Therefore, removed any remaining PoPs early this evening. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Currently, northwest flow aloft with an elongated upper level ridge stretched from the Southern Rockies into the Pacific Northwest. Embedded wave and subtle frontal boundary contributing to an area of showers/isolated thunderstorms moving south-southeast across the area this afternoon. This activity will move out of the general area over the next few hours, with a quiet night expected with sfc high pressure building in. Surface high pressure building into the Northern Plains will result in quiet weather to start the weekend. As the sfc high develops east across the region, increasing southerly return flow will see increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms along with temperature trending warmer Sunday into Monday. The remainder of the week will see a Rockies upper level ridge rebuilding and periodically breaking down, resulting in seasonal temperatures though periods of enhanced precipitation chances. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR ceilings and visibility are expected through the period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Telken DISCUSSION...NH AVIATION...Telken  698 FXUS63 KUNR 212321 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 521 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Upper ridge will dominate the weather through early next week. - Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon/evening in/near the Black Hills to the SD/NE border. - Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur over northeastern WY late Saturday afternoon and evening. - Temperatures will average about 4-8F above normal. && .DISCUSSION...(This Afternoon Through Thursday) Issued at 1149 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Current upper-air analysis and water vapor imagery depict large- scale ridging continuing to strengthen over the southwest. Satellite imagery indicates partly cloudy skies behind the thunderstorms and showers that moved through the region this morning. Current radar scans show a few weak returns associated with showers/virga over western SD. Surface observations show temperatures mainly in the 80s, with dewpoints in the 40s across northeast WY transitioning to the low 60s across south-central SD. Winds are generally easterly across western SD and southerly across northeast WY at 10 to 17kts, gusting to 25kts. Campbell Co. in particular may see gusty northeasterly winds up to 25kts, behind a weak frontal passage, and minRH values in the upper teens this afternoon. Due to these conditions, elevated fire weather concerns will continue to persist through this afternoon for Campbell Co. There is still uncertainty around today's chances for thunderstorms across southwestern SD, both in timing and severity, with disagreement remaining among the CAMs. However, MLCAPE values of ~750-1250 J/kg, dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s in the SD plains, and 0-6km bulk wind shear values around 55kts indicate that the environment in southwestern SD could support thunderstorm development and a supercell or two. The timing of the shortwave today, the cap currently in place, and the strong vertical moisture gradient between the SD plains and the Black Hills will all play a large role in storm development this afternoon/evening and into the overnight hours. Due to these factors, there is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms southeast of Rapid City down to the SD/NE border, with the primary threats being large hail (up to 2") and damaging winds (60-70+ mph). As a result, 15 percent POPs were added to the southern Black Hills and into southwestern SD for this afternoon into the evening. Multiple disturbances riding along the ridge will keep scattered thunderstorms chances in play for Saturday and Sunday, with northeast WY favored for better coverage Saturday. As is typical for thunderstorms in August, chances for precipitation will be hit-and- miss. Cloud cover and storm placement will also drive day-to-day temperatures, though highs are expected to remain above average across most of the region through the weekend and into next week as the ridge remains in place. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Saturday Evening) Issued At 521 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 With today's isolated thunderstorms pushing across the border into Nebraska and mostly clear skies in their wake, attention turns to the next potential round Saturday afternoon. CAMs support the best chance of development holding off until late afternoon and mostly focusing across northeast Wyoming, with otherwise VFR conditions tonight and Saturday across the region and breezy southeast winds Saturday as well. Any storm may contain brief vsby drops to MVFR as well as hail and strong gusty/erratic winds to at least 40kts late Saturday afternoon/evening. Have gone ahead and introduced a PROB30 at KGCC starting at 22z/4pm. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued At 1149 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Elevated fire weather concerns will continue through this afternoon for Campbell Co., where gusty northeasterly winds up to 25kts will combine with minimum relative humidity values in the upper teens. Thunderstorm chances increase across northeast Wyoming late Saturday afternoon, increasing the dry lightning risk, however, relative humidity values will increase to the upper 30s to low 40s. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schultz AVIATION...KSmith FIRE WEATHER...Schultz  736 FXUS64 KEPZ 212321 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 521 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 530 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain on Saturday. Thunderstorm chances will diminish rapidly this weekend as upper level high pressure builds closer to the area. - Above normal temperatures across southern New Mexico and far west Texas through the week ahead. Lowland highs will be in the upper 90s to lower 100s, which will approach daily records. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 The subtropical ridge is parked over Colorado today, with east to northeast flow steering some limited, recycled moisture around. We are already seeing some convection firing up in the higher terrain of the Gila Region and Sacramento Mountains. Much like yesterday, these storms will drift into the lowlands, but struggle as they move into a more hostile environment. The 18Z sounding tries to look impressive, with 1500 J/Kg and limited CIN based on the forecast surface temperature, but this doesn't take into account mixing out of the dewpoints, which are on their way to the lower-40s for the lowlands. Drier and warmer air aloft will work into the area through the weekend, heavily suppressing convection chances, even in the higher terrain. Temperatures will remain in the 100 to 103 range in the lowlands through the weekend, and will attempt to crawl a little higher than that early next week as the upper ridge settles over southern New Mexico. Very spotty convection may return to the higher terrain around that time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 530 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Diminishing VCTS across SW NM next few hours, with VCSH around KTCS/KDMN through 02Z. Skies SCT-BKN150 overnight with surface winds 060-100 at 5 to 10 knots. Isolated TS across SW NM between 19-23Z tomorrow, likely not affecting TAF sites. No mention of TS in this forecast due to low confidence in direct impacts. Prevailing surface winds 100-140 at 8 to 12 knots tomorrow. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1200 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain again today will run into a less favorable environment as they drift towards the lowlands. Above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend, with an overall drying trend from Saturday as the upper ridge squashes convection chances area-wide. With the hot/dry spell, ERCs are forecast to climb towards the 75th percentile next week. Min RHs will range from 12-20% for the lowlands through Sat, then 10-15%; 20-35% for mtns through Sat, then 15-25%. Vent rates will be good to very good. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 76 102 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 68 97 68 96 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 70 100 70 99 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 70 98 70 99 / 0 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 53 75 53 76 / 10 10 0 0 Truth or Consequences 72 98 71 98 / 10 0 10 0 Silver City 65 93 65 93 / 10 10 20 0 Deming 72 101 71 100 / 10 0 0 0 Lordsburg 72 100 72 100 / 10 0 10 0 West El Paso Metro 77 101 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 71 100 69 100 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 75 104 74 103 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 69 94 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 74 102 73 101 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 74 100 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 75 101 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 71 99 71 99 / 10 0 0 0 Hatch72 102 71 102 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 76 101 74 101 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 70 98 69 98 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 58 88 58 89 / 0 10 0 0 Mescalero 57 87 57 88 / 0 10 0 10 Timberon 56 85 56 85 / 10 10 0 0 Winston 62 90 62 90 / 10 20 20 10 Hillsboro 69 97 70 97 / 10 10 10 0 Spaceport 70 99 69 99 / 10 0 10 0 Lake Roberts 59 91 59 91 / 10 20 20 10 Hurley 67 95 66 95 / 0 0 10 0 Cliff 68 100 68 100 / 10 10 20 0 Mule Creek 66 97 65 96 / 10 10 20 0 Faywood 68 95 69 95 / 10 0 10 0 Animas 71 101 71 100 / 10 0 10 0 Hachita 71 99 70 98 / 0 0 10 0 Antelope Wells 70 99 69 98 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 68 95 67 94 / 0 0 10 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt  636 FXUS65 KBYZ 212320 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 520 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and mostly dry today. - Weather system brings the chance of precipitation back to the region this weekend. A thunderstorm or two could be strong, with wind the main threat. Thunderstorms could produce heavy rainfall. - Drier with seasonal temps next week and an occasional chance of precipitation. && .DISCUSSION... Through Thursday... High pressure building into the region from the west brought warm conditions to the area today. The ridge axis shifts east on Saturday, allowing southwest flow to develop over the region, as an upper low approaches the Pac NW. Moisture will increase out of the south, with PWATs approaching 1.25-1.5 inches (150-200% of normal). A weak shortwave lifting into the region will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area during the afternoon and evening. There could be a couple strong storms, with strong winds and small hail. With the high PWATs, any thunderstorm will be capable of producing heavy rainfall. The upper low pushes east along the US/Canada border Sunday into Monday, breaking down the upper ridge. As the low slides east, an associated cold front is expected to push through the area Sunday. Areas west of Billings could see a period of elevated fire weather concerns on Sunday as pre-frontal conditions bring westerly wind gusts of 15-30 mph, with humidity down near 20 percent. Scattered showers and thunderstorms look to spread across the area during the afternoon and evening as well, with gusty winds, small hail and heavy rainfall. Monday will see mainly dry conditions behind the cold front with temperatures a few degrees cooler. Upper ridging builds back over the area Tuesday into Thursday, with weak impulses and moisture bringing periodic chances for showers/thunderstorms, greatest in the south. Yet another break down of the upper ridge could occur by Friday. Temperatures are forecast to range from the 80s to lower 90s Saturday, to the 90s many places on Sunday. Temperatures then cool back into the 80s to near 90 degrees Monday through Thursday. STP .AVIATION... 00z TAF Discussion...Low level east-northeast winds will prevail across the forecast area tonight, with low level wind shear developing for most areas by sunset, continuing through early Saturday morning. VFR conditions will prevail through Saturday afternoon. By 20z expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over the southwest mountains, spreading northeast through Saturday evening. These storms will be wet with visibility reduction to 4sm possible along with localized wind gusts to 50 mph. Chambers && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 065/091 066/095 064/089 063/087 063/091 062/089 061/088 02/T 42/T 40/U 10/B 11/B 21/B 20/B LVM 059/089 056/090 053/088 052/086 053/088 052/086 050/085 14/T 63/T 20/U 22/T 21/B 21/U 21/U HDN 064/095 064/097 062/090 058/089 058/093 060/091 058/090 02/T 31/B 30/U 00/B 11/B 31/B 10/B MLS 064/092 068/095 066/089 060/087 058/091 063/089 060/089 00/B 51/B 20/U 00/U 00/U 21/B 21/B 4BQ 064/090 067/094 066/089 061/087 059/090 063/089 060/089 01/B 41/U 20/U 11/B 01/U 21/B 21/B BHK 056/088 061/093 061/090 056/087 053/089 057/089 055/088 00/U 54/T 20/U 00/U 00/U 22/T 22/T SHR 060/092 061/092 059/087 055/085 054/088 056/088 055/087 03/T 24/T 11/U 12/T 11/B 11/B 11/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings  837 FXUS64 KBMX 212323 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 623 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 622 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026 - Heat: Minor HeatRisk will continue through the weekend. Heat indices are forecast to remain below 105 degrees. - Thunderstorms: Severe storms are expected through early evening across southern Central Alabama, with damaging winds and heavy rain remaining the main concerns. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1251 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026 The KBMX radar reveals a few lingering showers from this morning's convective activity. A quick look at water vapor imagery reveals an upper trough situated across the Tennessee Valley and an upper ridge building out to our west. At the surface, a cold front can be analyzed drifting slowly across the northern half of the state. This boundary will continue its southward movement through the day. Meanwhile, a shortwave will round the base of the trough, triggering another round of convection, generally to the south of the front. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for the southern half of the CWA due to the threat of damaging wind gusts. Forecast soundings once again suggest ample instability, dry mid-level air, and high DCAPE which supports the threat of downbursts with today's storms. Additionally, PWATs nearing 2" (per the 12Z KBMX sounding and GOES TPW imagery) would lead to heavy rainfall and a localized flash flooding threat. Narrowing dew points, condensation pressure deficits falling to 2- 5mb and light winds in the wake of today's convection will help promote patchy fog development around sunrise Saturday morning. Fog will be most likely for those that receive rain this afternoon and evening. Upper-level ridging will attempt to build in over the weekend. Increased subsidence and drier air will lower rain chances through the weekend, though precipitation looks to return early next week as a series of shortwaves rotates through with the northwest flow aloft. High temperatures will continue in the low to mid-90s over the coming days. Persistent humidity will promote daily heat indices in the 105-109 degree range today. The Heat Advisory remains in effect through 02Z Saturday. Drier air arriving this weekend will help keep heat indices in check, generally in the 95-100 range. 95/Castillo && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026 A batch of rain is currently moving right over EET, between TCL and BHM. Look for the activity to remain possible through 02Z for the north. MGM and AUO may see some additional activity after 00Z through 03Z. MVFR cigs/vis and gusty winds will be likely with any passing storms. Will continue with PROB30 mentions to account for this activity. As winds become light overnight, there will be a low (20-30%) chance for patchy MVFR fog around sunrise. Best chances will be at terminals that receive rain this afternoon and evening. Dry conditions are expected through much of the area on Saturday. Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air filtering into the area on Saturday will result in a decrease in relative humidity (35 to 45%) for most locations. However, wind speeds are expected to remain light, which should negate any significant fire weather concerns during this period. Moisture gradually begins to return early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 70 94 70 92 / 10 0 10 10 Anniston 70 92 69 91 / 10 0 10 10 Birmingham 72 93 72 92 / 10 0 10 10 Tuscaloosa 73 98 73 96 / 10 0 10 10 Calera 72 94 72 93 / 20 0 10 10 Auburn 72 91 72 90 / 40 0 0 0 Montgomery 73 96 73 96 / 30 0 0 0 Troy 72 95 71 95 / 40 10 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chilton-Dallas-Elmore- Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Marion- Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter- Tuscaloosa-Walker. && $$ DISCUSSION...95/Castillo AVIATION...16  811 FXUS64 KHGX 212323 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 623 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory remains in effect. Hot conditions will persist through next week. - Scattered storms are possible late this afternoon and this evening across the Piney Woods region. Gusty winds are possible in the stronger cells. - Cannot rule out some isolated showers/storms on Saturday, but most of us will likely remain dry and hot. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Satellite imagery shows some weak shortwaves over SE OK sagging southward early this afternoon. With temps climbing to around 100F in advance, guidance still indicates the potential for scattered storm development late in the day and this evening up around the Piney Woods area that we'll need to keep an eye on. Any stronger cells will have the capability producing some 25-50mph wind gusts. Vast majority of models keep this precip across NE parts of our CWA before dissipating later tonight, however it's certainly not unheard of that these storms tend to overperform in these patterns so I plan to maintain the mention of at least lowish POPs much further south and east until trends can be established. Another set of weak disturbances is fcst to take a similar track down the periphery of the ridge late in the day Saturday & Saturday evening...so am keeping some lower end rain chances in the fcst. Otherwise, ridging & heat will continue to be the primary wx story well into next week. Highs in the triple digits are anticipated thru much of the work week. In terms of the Heat Advisory, I'm going to leave it as-is thru Saturday for now and let future shifts reevaluate things on a day-to-day basis in terms of any extensions or potential reconfigurations. 47 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Winds remain southerly as the evening hrs progress before becoming VRB around 3-5kts during the overnight. KUTS and areas to the E still remain the most likely areas to see any convective development as the boundary sits over the TX/LA border. Again, the sunrise timeframe has the chance to bring MVFR CIG and BR around KCXO and KLBX. Winds begin to pickup and shift to SSW in the late morning on Saturday. As the winds decrease in the evening around 22z the winds shift to SSE. CMW && .MARINE... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Thunderstorms are expected north and east of the region this evening. These storms are not anticipated to make it into our waters, but are worth watching. Otherwise, light to occasionally moderate southwest and south winds and 2 to 3 foot seas are expected over the next several days. Winds may occasionally gust up to 20 knots during the afternoon in the bays, and during the overnight hours in the Gulf. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 78 103 78 102 / 20 20 20 10 Houston (IAH) 81 102 80 101 / 20 20 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 83 92 83 92 / 20 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...47 AVIATION...CMW MARINE...47  846 FXUS64 KOHX 212323 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 623 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 618 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Low rain and storm chances east of I-65 today and tomorrow, best chances across the Plateau. - Overall drier with slightly below-normal temperatures this weekend with fog possible tomorrow and Sunday mornings. - Low to medium rain and storm chances next week with seasonal temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Upper-level troughing is situated across the eastern CONUS and an embedded shortwave disturbance is now moving off to our east. Drier tropospheric air has now worked into the region with PWs in the 1.3" range, though surface dewpoints in the low 70s are lingering making for humid conditions today. Overall we expect lesser convective coverage today with only low rain/storm chances focused across the Plateau this afternoon and evening. Otherwise we'll enjoy a light northwesterly wind today with scattered clouds. Mostly clear skies and calm winds will support radiational cooling tonight, so fog development is possible, especially across the valleys and cooler rural areas. Another weak perturbation looks to rotate in from the northwest tomorrow which has resulted in additional rain shower/isolated storm chances. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Troughing will remain in place this weekend with northwesterly flow persisting across our region. This will favor slightly below-normal temperatures with cooler overnight conditions into Monday. The trough will slowly migrate east by Tuesday which will help bring temperatures up a couple degrees. This will also open the door for an axis of higher PWs/instability to push into the area from the west. At least a couple of passing shortwave perturbations are progged to move through the northwesterly flow aloft which should foster isolated to scattered rain/storms Tuesday through Thursday. Forecast temperatures are essential right at seasonal norms most days next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR conditions prevail this taf cycle. Northwest winds will persist through much of the period with a gradual transition north late Saturday afternoon. Calm winds and clear skies overnight will encourage fog development, some dense, mostly impacting CSV and SRB. Probabilities for vis less than VFR thresholds at BNA, MQY and CKV are low, less than 20%. Fog will burn off after sunrise and winds at all terminals will pick up with occasional gusts up to 20 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 65 92 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 65 91 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 63 85 59 81 / 0 20 0 0 Columbia 67 93 66 90 / 0 0 10 0 Cookeville 66 87 62 83 / 0 30 0 0 Jamestown 65 85 61 82 / 0 30 0 0 Lawrenceburg 66 91 64 88 / 0 0 10 0 Murfreesboro 68 93 65 89 / 0 10 0 0 Waverly 67 92 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sizemore LONG TERM....Sizemore AVIATION.....Baggett  902 FXUS62 KTAE 212324 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 724 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 723 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Daily chances for thunderstorms remain in the forecast. Some strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening. Strong wind gusts of 40-60 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall are expected with the stronger storms that develop. - The heat wave is poised to finally break with a more typical summertime pattern returning early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 For the rest of this afternoon, a remnant MCV will slowly spin down over southeast Georgia just east of Lanier and Lowndes Counties. We'll be watching a shortwave moving southward around the ridge to our west, which will precede the larger trough over the Great Lakes that will move through on Saturday. This shortwave will help generate scattered to numerous showers and storms later this afternoon continuing into the evening hours. Some of this convection could become more organized into clusters or lines. DCAPE and instability should increase further into the afternoon hours, which will lead to a threat of strong downbursts. Also, low to mid-level lapse rates will steepen with cooler temperatures moving in aloft, which could lead to a threat of some hail. SPC has maintained the Marginal Risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5) for this afternoon and evening for most of the area. Some of the guidance during the overnight hours has outflow from storms to our northwest moving into our area, which may help spark isolated to scattered showers and storms late tonight. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s. For Saturday, the shortwave moves more into our area, bisecting our area from northeast to southwest. So, rain chances will be more confined to areas from Panama City to Valdosta southward. While soundings aren't quite as impressive tomorrow, still a gusty wind and maybe small hail threat exist. Currently, there is no severe weather risk outlined for tomorrow from SPC. Drier air will sneak into our area as well, which should keep us below Heat Advisory levels for Saturday. If this holds, it would be the first day without a Heat Advisory in our area since August 10th. It will still be hot with highs in the lower half of the 90s with heat index values of 102-107. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Sunday and Monday will be the driest days with PWATs crashing to 1.2 to 1.5 inches. Thus, little coverage of showers and storms is expected Sunday and would occur mainly near the sea breeze. Monday, however, we'll have to watch if a shortwave rounds the ridge to our west and enters our area during the afternoon, which may help spark better coverage of showers and storms. The drier air will make it feel much more tolerable (until the sea breeze arrives). Highs will still be in the mid to upper 90s both days, but heat index values will only manage the upper 90s to 105 in most spots. Through much of the upcoming week, the ridge will remain off to our west, and we'll remain in northwesterly flow aloft. So, we'll continue to monitor for any ridge-riding disturbances, but our rain chances will gradually increase with a return to a summer pattern. Highs remain in the low to mid 90s with heat index values of 102-108. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 723 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A broken line of thunderstorms are and will be affecting all terminals this evening. The ABY terminal will see light to moderate rain for the next few hours. The DHN, VLD, and TLH terminals will see ongoing thunderstorms with gusty winds and frequent lightning, as noted in prevailing FROM groups and TEMPO groups. A few storms may reach down to ECP later tonight, as shown in a PROB30 group. After these storms clear tonight, VFR cigs are expected to prevail. Showers and thunderstorms return tomorrow afternoon for all TAF sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Scattered storms are expected through Saturday, mainly in the overnight and morning hours. However, clusters of storms could move into the waters during the evening hours from land. Gusty winds and brief waterspouts are possible in the stronger storms. Otherwise, mainly gentle to occasionally moderate southwesterly breezes will continue over the next several days with seas around 1-2 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Generally light west to southwest transport winds will continue through Saturday, then more variable on Monday. Dispersions will remain good overall each afternoon. Scattered showers and storms are expected again Saturday afternoon, but decreasing coverage is anticipated both Sunday and Monday. Gusty, erratic winds and dangerous lightning strikes will be possible. Drier air will move in over the weekend, but RH values will stay above critical levels. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall today and Saturday. If the storms are slow-moving, they could produce several inches of rain in a short period of time. This would lead to some nuisance to isolated flash flood concerns, particularly is low-lying or poor drainage areas. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 74 93 74 97 / 40 70 0 10 Panama City 77 90 78 93 / 40 50 10 10 Dothan 73 94 73 96 / 50 10 0 10 Albany 73 95 73 97 / 80 20 0 0 Valdosta 73 94 73 97 / 50 60 0 10 Cross City 75 91 74 93 / 20 70 40 40 Apalachicola 78 89 78 92 / 40 60 20 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326- 426. GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ155>161. AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Young LONG TERM....Young AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...Young FIRE WEATHER...Young HYDROLOGY...Young  858 FXUS63 KLMK 212323 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 723 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * A cold front will bring a chance for showers and storms Saturday afternoon. A few storms may become strong east of I-65, with the main severe hazards being gusty winds and small hail. * Milder, dry conditions are expected for Sunday through Tuesday. * Warming temperatures and low rain chances return by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 304 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 This Afternoon through Tonight... A scattered cu field has developed across the area this afternoon as locations reach convective temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s. Where there is slightly greater instability and convergence around Lake Cumberland, isolated to widely scattered showers and storms have developed, and should continue over the next few hours before diminishing by around sunset. Tonight, mostly clear skies and light winds should allow for efficient cooling after sunset, with temperatures falling into the upper 60s and low 70s for the overnight hours. Light winds in the boundary layer should allow for patchy fog to develop after midnight, with dense fog possible in sheltered valleys. Fog coverage may be limited early Saturday morning if residual clouds from upstream convection make it into southern IN and north central KY. Otherwise, dry conditions and low temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to the low 70s are expected. Saturday and Saturday Night... Within broad upper level troughing, a shortwave will eject from the Canadian Prairies into the upper Ohio Valley tonight into Saturday, bringing an associated sfc cold front across the area during the daytime hours. Temperatures should again warm into the low-to-mid 80s by midday, with a narrow corridor of low 70s dewpoints and 2500- 3000 J/kg SBCAPE expected just ahead of cold FROPA. The best lift/forcing associated with the upper shortwave is expected to remain across Ohio and points to the east tomorrow, and it appears that most of the forcing which would support convective development across our area would come from the front itself. Accordingly, how far east the front makes it before convective temperatures are reached Saturday afternoon will determine where the greatest potential for showers and storms will be. 12Z HREF probabilities of >40 dBZ reflectivities are highest along and east of I-65, with lower chances of showers and storms expected in the western CWA. Still, with relatively modest forcing, would expect storm coverage to be isolated to scattered even east of I-65, with many areas remaining dry. Where storms develop, mean deep-layer shear values of 20-25 kt would support modest storm organization, with a few longer-lasting and taller storms possible. Shear profiles are fairly unidirectional, so damaging straight-line winds would be the main severe threat in any stronger storms. A couple instances of near-severe hail will also be possible in the tallest storm cores, though mid-level lapse rates won't be particularly steep. The storm window should be fairly narrow tomorrow afternoon between around 2 PM and 1-2 hours after cold FROPA, with the storm threat completely ending by around sunset. Saturday night, drier air will begin to work into the region behind the cold front along with modest cool air advection. The pressure gradient associated with the front won't be particularly strong, so NW winds behind the front should ease outside of the elevated/well- mixed areas. Temperatures should be cooler Sunday morning, with lows falling into the low-to-mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 304 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A drier and marginally cooler air mass will spill into the Ohio Valley from the northwest behind the cold front on Sunday as mid- and upper-level troughing sets up east of the Mississippi. This air mass, supported by 1018 mb sfc high pressure, should remain in place over the region into Monday, with sub-1" PWATs indicating moisture levels around the 10th percentile of model climatology. It should be rather comfortable for late August during this time period, with highs in the upper 70s and low-to-mid 80s and lows in the upper 50s and low 60s. The primary trough axis over the eastern CONUS will begin to eject to the east Monday night into Tuesday as upper ridging over the western CONUS spreads toward the lower Miss. Valley. This should allow a sfc warm front to creep to the NE next Tuesday, with greater moisture located in the vicinity of the front. If the front remains SW of the area, as is currently the most likely solution, dry weather should continue into the middle of next week. However, if the ridge/warm front can make it closer to the area, low-end chances for showers and storms may return by next Wednesday. Next Wednesday into Thursday, another upper shortwave is expected to descend on the NE side of the ridge across the upper Midwest. This may bring a weak front toward the area, prompting a return of shower/storm chances, though forecast confidence in storms is low at this time. Temperatures should gradually increase by the second half of next week, returning to near climatological normals by next Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 723 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Scattered Cu field will diminish here in the next hour with surface winds becoming light out of the northwest. Overnight, mainly VFR conditions are expected with some possible valley fog across central Kentucky. Winds will shift to the southwest Saturday morning and then shift back to the northwest as a pre-frontal trough axis moves through around lunchtime. A few scattered storms will be possible in the afternoon across east-central KY (mainly LEX/RGA) but overall coverage looks to be too low for inclusion in this set of TAFs. Probably will need a PROB30 group starting with the 22/06Z TAFs. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CSG LONG TERM....CSG AVIATION.....MJ  897 FXUS63 KLSX 212324 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 624 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably cool late summer temperatures are expected this weekend into next week with few opportunities for rain. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Currently a ridge of high pressure over the Intermountain West has spread hot and dry conditions out into the Plains. A trough centered over Hudson Bay has extended its influence southward into the Great Lakes, with this trough expected to continue pushing into the Great Lakes and New England over the coming days. A leading shortwave trough is pushing through Wisconsin toward Chicago this afternoon, with a cold front sliding southward behind it. There are two primary areas of convection expected in the next 12 to 24 hours along this front: The first is closer to the shortwave trough tracking into northern Illinois. Here some modest moisture convergence aided by lift from the shortwave trough will lead to scattered thunderstorms potentially merging into a broader complex pushing southeast overnight. It is likely that these storms track to the east of our forecast area, but there's an outside chance (20 percent) that they do move through our far eastern counties overnight. While there is some severe weather threat with this, the threat will be greatest in the evening hours closer to the core of the thunderstorm complex. The threat locally will be considerably lower and later in the night. The second is to the west over Nebraska and Kansas. Here a low level jet this evening will send modest moisture northward toward the front and trigger another thunderstorm complex to develop. This tracks southeast potentially into western Missouri overnight, but is unlikely (less than 10 percent) to make it into our forecast area. The most likely scenario for us tonight will be a subtle passage of the cold front overnight, with winds turning out of the north by morning. Expect a mostly sunny day behind the front on Saturday. Despite cold advection, deep post-frontal mixing will ensure it's another warm day in the mid to perhaps upper 80s. That deep mixing, though, is expected to mix in some drier air from aloft. We've deliberately included more of the higher resolution guidance in the forecast to reflect this drying. Some guidance has dewpoints falling well into the 50s with a corresponding increase in temperature. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 As we go through the weekend, the trough spins into southeastern Canada while the ridge expands its influence eastward into the Rockies and Great Plains. Surface high pressure moving in behind tonight's front will ensure that our area remains more under the influence of the cooler air mass from the trough despite rising heights aloft. Highs only reach the low 80s with lows in the low 60s or even upper 50s at times. As the ridge nudges eastward our area will become better situated to have some effects from ridge running shortwave troughs, what we sometimes call the "ring of fire" of thunderstorm complexes rotating around a ridge. At first, low level moisture is pretty limited due to northerly low level flow near the Gulf, but over the next few days better moisture does eventually lift northward into the Southern Plains. It has more difficulty moving eastward, though, as the influence of the surface high moving into the western Great Lakes and Ohio Valley remains strong. We've seen a growing consensus in guidance at this point for the focus of convection Sunday into Monday to stay just to our southwest along with the effective warm front. Some cloud cover from this activity to our west may actually help to hold temperatures down even furtheron Monday, potentially in the 70s. Meanwhile on the other side of the warm front the heat is on with temperatures potentially near 100. The next more substantial shortwave trough tracks through the northwest flow on Wednesday, but it's not clear we ever get into the warm, moist air by then. So despite the passage of another weak cold front, we may not get any rain out of it. NBM POP remains low (less than 20 percent), and most of the low resolution ensemble guidance keeps the focus for precipitation to our south where the better moisture exists or to our north where the core of the upper wave will be. Additional shortwave troughs have some potential (20 percent or less) to bring additional rounds of showers and storms through the end of the week, but confidence gets lower with time on when and where those waves will track. There is a general consensus, though, that the ridge eventually expands far enough east that we eventually get in on the warmer weather again. NBM probability of 90 degree heat increases to about 30 percent by Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 609 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A cold front dropping southward through the area will cause winds to swing to out of the north-northwest late tonight and tomorrow morning. There is a very low chance this front produces a shower or thunderstorm near one of the local terminals, and if this happens, impacts would be very brief. Because of this front, confidence in the previous fog forecast at KSUS is low, as the front will be moving over the site during the time that is climatologically favorable for fog development. Shifting winds and drier air associated with the front may limit if not prevent fog development. Otherwise, VFR flight conditions are expected through the period. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kimble LONG TERM...Kimble AVIATION...Elmore  930 FXUS65 KCYS 212325 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 525 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Precipitation chances return by this weekend, with the possibility of widespread rain on Saturday. - Daily shower and storm chances continue Monday through the end of the week with slightly above average temperature expected until Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 131 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A bit of uncertainty in the forecast for this afternoon and evening regarding storm chances. Upper-level ridging over the west continues to shift eastward into Wyoming today. This will produce strong subsidence which will work to counteract storms. However, model soundings and mesoanalysis show quite a bit of instability, especially east of the Laramie Range. Satellite thus far has been unimpressive, showing flat topped cumulus fields mainly around Cheyenne and Laramie. A few isolated instances of vertical growth have been observed, but have quickly fallen apart due to the presence of MLCIN. Mesoanalysis does have CIN eroding away within the next few hours, so it is possible that by late afternoon and evening, storms could develop given the instability and lift from a weak upper-level disturbance. Most CAMs aren't too exited about storms today. The HRRR has been the most bullish, but also the most uncertain, flip flopping back and forth between lots of storms and barely any storms. However, newest runs of the HRRR seem to be more believable, showing convection developing this evening over the high terrain and pushing into the panhandle where it strengthens due to higher instability. If this is the case, a severe thunderstorm or two could be possible. Both strong winds and large hail cannot be ruled out in storms with DCAPE over 1000 J/kg and MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg. Any storms that develop will move out of the area by midnight tonight, however, cannot rule out nocturnal convection developing in the panhandle after this. Increased moisture into the area from precipitation as well as weak southeast flow, could cause low stratus and patchy fog east of the Laramie Range early Saturday morning. The forecast for Saturday looks more certain, with greater chances for precipitation. Another weak shortwave moving through the ridge will provide the needed lift and monsoon moisture for storms to develop. Model soundings show decent instability once again, which could lead to marginally severe storms. Hi-Res guidance shows widely scattered storms developing during the mid-afternoon and continuing through the evening hours. Most hazards will be possible in storms, including heavy rain due to PWATs in the 90th percentile, large hail, and strong winds. Hi-Res guidance does show lingering showers across the area Saturday night, however these should not cause impacts. Similar conditions are expected on Sunday with another round of scattered storms. PWATs and instability are weaker on Sunday, so severe storms are unlikely at this time. Due to less moisture, models are also hinting at lower coverage of storms on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 131 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Monday...Coverage of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms increases somewhat by an increase in monsoonal moisture and lowering 700 mb temperatures providing less convective inhibition, CIN, compared to Sunday. As is this type of pattern, afternoon convection will be over and near the mountains due to differential heating and orographic effects, with the activity spreading across the rest of the forecast area before dissipation by late evening. Warmer temperatures compared to the previous day due to less cloud cover and convective coverage. Tuesday...Similar pattern synoptically to Monday with minor perturbations in the flow aloft aiding in lift of monsoonal moisture to produce widely scattered to scattered afternoon convection over and near our Snowy, Sierra Madre and northern Laramie Ranges, with the activity spreading eastward across the rest of the forecast area in the evening. Some lowering of mid level temperatures suggests daytime maximum temperatures will be a little cooler. Wednesday...The primary change compared to Tuesday, will be a reinforcement of the ridge aloft axis over Wyoming, inducing a return to upslope mechanical lift aiding the areal increase of showers and thunderstorms, especially east of the mountains and along the I-25 corridor and eastward. Slight warming trend with 700 mb temperatures near 13 Celsius yielding high temperatures in the 80s. Thursday-Friday...Monsoonal moisture becomes a bit more scant with decent westerly flow aloft and with warm temperatures aloft producing more convective inhibition, CIN, to limit development. A slight warming trend continues based on mid level, 700 mb temperature trends. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 525 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Tricky aviation forecast for this period, especially across the Nebraska Panhandle with showers and thunderstorms rolling through and the possibility for further development. Do to low confidence on placement and coverage, kept TS out of the TAFs for the most part and expect AMDs if further development occurs. For the southeast Wyoming terminals, scattered showers and storms are pushing southeast across the region and will continue for the next several hours. In any storm activity, winds could become erratic and gusty. There is also the threat for GR in any thunderstorm activity, this could bring additional aviation hazards. After everything clears, with the added moisture and wind direction, VIS and CIG reduction is possible overnight for the Nebraska sites. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SF LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...RZ  962 FXUS63 KFGF 212325 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 625 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Potential for strong to severe storms Monday. - Seasonable weather with scattered rain chances Tonight/Friday and early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...Synopsis... NW flow continues to become more amplified the next few days with increasing ridging across the Rockies and high plains. Troughing off the Pacific coast looks to move ashore Saturday and flatten the ridge bringing increasing precipitation chances Monday and Tuesday. Ridging then returns for the mid and late week. Could see some strong to severe storms on Monday/Tuesday though there are still a some unknowns so wont speculate into the potential too much. Overall seasonal weather with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s each day and peak daily heat indices generally 80-85 making a it a comfortable stretch of late summer weather. - Today A shortwave is quickly traversing the northwest flow aloft with cold air advection behind yesterdays wave helping to steepen mid level lapse rates. Overall pretty skinny instability but reminiscent of a springtime northwest flow with a deepening CU field and the expectation for afternoon showers/thunderstorms once we reach the convective temp in the low to mid 80s this afternoon. Not likley to see high rainfall totals but a few locations in northwest Minnesota could squeak out a quick tenth. Severe weather is not expected with only 20-25kts of eff shear and 1000 j/kg of ML CAPE but some small hail is not out of the question. - Rain/Severe Chances Early Next Week Similar to yesterday AI ensembles agree strongly on the track of the wave through the canadian provinces on Monday afternoon/Tuesday morning with the Euro still the more progressive solution but the GFS is catching up as expected. Overall the expectation is for lee troughing east of the rockies with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 j/kg to support at least a wind and hail threat on Monday afternoon/evening across parts of the Dakotas. This does appear to evolve into a closed 500mb wave with closed isotherms as well within the low meeting the definition of a cold core low supporting a localized tornado threat in Saskatchewan and Manitoba Monday but given the track this appears to stay well north of our area. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Simple TAFs over the next 24 hours. Winds are already decreasing, which will continue into the overnight, sustaining themselves out of the north/northwest at about 5 knots. Current cloud cover will thin out and dissipate over the next few hours, leaving us clear overnight. There is a low chance for fog to develop, but with at least some northerly wind, it will likely be harder for it to develop tonight then it was last night. Therefore, I did not include fog in any TAFs at this time. Winds will increase again on Saturday, still out of the north/northwest, sustained at about 10 to 12 knots at all TAF sties by afternoon. A few gusts are likely at KFAR and KGFK as well, but will remain under 20 knots. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TT AVIATION...Rafferty  989 FXUS63 KLOT 212326 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 626 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. A few storms could become severe in the evening with damaging winds and hail the main threats, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. - Dangerous swimming conditions are expected at Porter County, Indiana Lake Michigan beaches Saturday, then all Illinois and Indiana Lake Michigan beaches late Saturday night and Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Early this afternoon, a decaying MCS is pushing south across far northern IL along an north-south oriented instability gradient draped very roughly along the I-39 corridor. Additionally, scattered showers are moving east near and north of the Kankakee River valley as a subtle leading shortwave works across. This MCS has been on a very gradual weakening trend, but it managed to hold together much better than any recent guidance had thought. It's still generating a fair amount of lightning and pockets of heavier rainfall near its leading edge which will likely persist as it continues to drop south across the Chicago metro through the afternoon. No strong or severe storms are expected through mid-afternoon with this system, but embedded downpours will likely remain. Farther upstream, a more potent shortwave trough axis is swinging into the upper Midwest coincident with a surface cold front stretching from western WI southwest into northeast and central IA. It's along and ahead of the front this evening where we expect a chance for severe convection. The first showers have just started to go up along the front near La Crosse. Thunderstorms are expected to blossom along the boundary as it continues southeastward and eventually crosses into northern IL near the end of the afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis suggests instability is building quickly west of I- 39 in a region of efficient theta-e advection ahead of the front. CAM guidance has been rather consistent on a tongue of 2,500 to 3,000 Joules of MLCAPE building into our western and northwestern CWA by late afternoon. It's not clear the quality of the thermo environment farther east this evening between this MCS, added daytime cloud cover, and eventually diurnal cooling into the evening. All along, guidance had been resolving notably less instability with eastward extent largely owing to a drier low level airmass and diurnal cooling through the evening. However, the added rain and cloud cover could be enough to greatly inhibit much of a severe threat east of the Fox Valley and especially into northwest Indiana, but there's not great confidence there. Effective shear this evening is marginal to fair at about 25 to 35 kt, highest in our west. However, models do resolve a veering low level shear profile which would support a low-end tornado threat where the low levels can destabilize sufficiently. Even when discounting this ongoing MCS, CAMs had been consistently hanging onto some low level capping roughly east of the Fox Valley through the afternoon, and would imagine that's even more likely now, before being further reinforced by diurnal cooling. For that reason, this evening's marginal tornado threat will be focused west of the Fox Valley and north of I-80 where the more supportive low level thermo environment is anticipated. This is also where the severe wind and hail threat will be maximized given the greater instability and generally more support expected from the left exit region of a 700 mb jet max out to our west. Severe hail and damaging winds are on the table area-wide but it's not clear the eastward/southeastward extent of deep convection this evening and it's very possible much of the area is spared from severe weather. Areas of very heavy rainfall are expected as well, in addition to the ongoing pockets of heavy rain within the remnant MCS. The storms look progressive enough in nature to avoid many widespread flooding concerns, but scattered pockets of 1-2" with the evening coverage alone is a strongly favored signal among guidance which would likely lead to localized flooding impacts, mainly in low-lying and other flood prone areas. The severe threat looks to exit the area to the southeast shortly after midnight. The upper trough will continue digging into the Great Lakes region through tomorrow and drive a vort max across WI and Lake Michigan during the day tomorrow. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will attempt to develop on the back side of the system and fall on parts of the area tomorrow afternoon. With the cooler mid level air spilling over, as many as 1,500 to 2,000 Joules of MUCAPE is favored to develop over NE IL and NW IN for the afternoon. Nothing too strong or severe is anticipated, but if one or two more robust updrafts can develop and survive through significant dry air aloft, it may be enough to spit out some locally heavy rain and gusty thunderstorm winds. Most of the area will be staying dry tomorrow with highs forecast in the upper 70s to around 80. Strong northerly winds will develop on Lake Michigan tomorrow and generate high waves and dangerous currents at northwest Indiana beaches leading to hazardous swimming conditions. Such conditions will work west to include the Illinois lakeshore for Sunday. High pressure will dominate the Midwest and Great Lakes regions early next week keeping conditions largely quiet. Daily highs are forecast to range from the middle 70s to lower 80s with rain chances looking to return closer to midweek. Doom && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Forecast concerns include... Chance of thunderstorms this evening. Possible isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Possible mvfr level cloud cover early Saturday morning. Gusty northwest winds Saturday. There will be a chance of thunderstorms across the Chicago terminals this evening, but the better chance of thunderstorms is expected to be across northwest and west central IL where there is better instability. While coverage is expected to be better west of the Chicago terminals, there is still enough uncertainty to maintain tempo thunder for now and will monitor trends. All of this activity is expected to move south of the terminals by late evening. There may be a few showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon but confidence is very low and maintained a dry forecast. Any activity that may develop would likely be over southern Lake Michigan into northwest Indiana, possibly just east of the Chicago terminals. There may be some low mvfr level cloud cover in the predawn hours into mid morning Saturday, but confidence is very low for any possible bkn/ovc low mvfr cigs. Appears the best chance for any mvfr cigs will be east of the Chicago terminals. Southerly winds generally under 10kt this evening will turn more westerly overnight, northwest by daybreak and then gusts into the 20kt range are expected through sunset Saturday evening. cms && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for INZ002. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  049 FXUS63 KMQT 212327 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 727 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms move eastward with a cold front over central and eastern Upper Michigan through this evening. - Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across mainly central Upper Michigan tomorrow with minimal rainfall totals. - Seasonable temperatures are expected through next week with the exception of slightly below normal temperatures Sunday and Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 319 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Afternoon RAP analysis indicates the weak sfc low has made it over central Lake Superior, opening up into a trough which extends northward into northern Ontario. Sfc obs place the cold front just past the far western UP with temps in the upper 60s to mid 70s ahead of it. Tds in the low to mid 60s support SBCAPE in the 500-1500 J/kg range, but lapse rates are unimpressive. Bulk shear is also below 25 kts, so strong to severe storms are not expected. Latest radar mosaic has showers along this boundary with Day Cloud Phase RGB satellite imagery showing glaciation and GLM/ground networks indicating lightning activity is just starting. These are expected to progress eastward through this evening before diurnal instability decreases and lingering convection falls apart. PWATs of ~1.3 inches indicate some isolated higher amounts up to 0.5 to 1 inch are possible (30-50% chance, highest central UP), but most likely accumulations will be less than 0.25 inches. In the wake of this front, isolated showers and a few rumbles of thunder are possible (15-30% chance) with a shortwave and limited elevated instability tonight. Lows settle into the upper 40s to low 60s, coldest interior west. Additional scattered showers and weak storms are possible on Saturday as another cold front and shortwave drop southeast overhead. That said, CAMs are even less impressed with this round. Outside the south-central where some spots could reach up to 0.25 inches, accumulations remain below 0.1 inches. Highs will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Temps continue to decrease this weekend, bottoming out Sunday as a mid level trough deepens over the Great Lakes. CAA lowers 850 mb temps to between 3-6C, yielding highs in the 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s to mid 50s. Some interior spots likely will dip back into the upper 30s Sunday night. Northerly winds are expected to gust up to 20 mph on Saturday and between 20-30 mph on Sunday, highest east...particularly near Lake Superior. High pressure moving in from the west keeps weather dry through Monday, likely through most of Tuesday as well before the next mid level trough moves through the region. This brings back shower and storm chances for Tuesday night and Wednesday, then dry weather is favored the rest of the work week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 727 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Weak low pressure continues to bring a few areas of showers over the central UP this evening. Low stratus trailing the showers was bringing MVFR cigs to CMX but conditions should improve to VFR over the next hour as satellite shows a well defined clearing line approaching the Keweenaw Peninsula. A few showers will impact KSAW with MVFR conditions over the next hour and a period of MVFR cigs through late this evening as the low stratus moves through. For late tonight through Saturday afternoon expect mainly VFR conditions. Isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are expected over the western and central U.P. on Saturday afternoon but with the isolated nature there is too much uncertainty to included in the TAF at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 348 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Lake Superior - Northwest winds behind a cold front increase on Saturday to 20-30 kts over the east half of the lake by late afternoon, strongest near the south-central shores. Gusts approach 20 kts over the west. As winds become more northerly Saturday night behind a second cold front, central lake superior winds increase to 15-25 kts; the stronger winds to 30 kts over the east persist. This holds into Sunday morning before winds gradually simmer down from west to east into Sunday night. This builds significant waves of 3-7 ft over the southeastern waters this weekend. Probabilities for gales to 35 kts are only between 15-25%, highest south of Stannard Rock and along the Marquette/Alger County shores. Winds otherwise remain below 20 kts through Tuesday before the next system brings back winds up to 20-25 kts Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Northern Bay of Green Bay and northern Lake Michigan - Southerly winds of 15-25 kts ahead of the cold front this afternoon drop off into this evening, becoming northwest for Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening, but severe storms are not expected. Winds increase to 20-30 kts this weekend as a colder airmass descends over the Great Lakes. Winds fall back below 20 kts Sunday night, remaining below 20 kts through much of next week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ014. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...77 AVIATION...NL MARINE...77  994 FXUS64 KLIX 212326 AAA AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 626 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...NEW AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 619 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Dangerous heat continues with afternoon heat indices in the 105-113 degree range through the weekend. Warm overnight temperatures will offer limited relief. - Isolated to scattered afternoon storms are expected the next couple days with a little better coverage this afternoon and evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Monday night) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Tonight through the weekend, upper level ridging will remain in place over the area. Southerly surface winds will continue to help advect warm air and moisture into the area, increasing the humidity. Scattered showers and storms will be expected daily during the afternoon and early evening. These storms will have the potential for frequent lightning and gusty subsevere winds (40- 50mph). These storms are not expected to be severe. The heat continues. Highs in the mid to upper 90s combined with heat index values in the 103-110 degrees range will be quite warm. Heat advisories are in effect for Saturday and will likely be needed Sunday. Be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if you will be spending time outdoors. MSW && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Thursday night) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 High pressure continues to build over the area for the workweek. Southerly surface winds will continue to advect warm and moist air into the region, increasing humidities for the area. Conditions will be quite dry overall for the beginning of next week with PoPs less than 10-20% for the long term forecast. An isolated shower/storm will be possible daily during peak heating hours in the afternoon/evening. The main risk with these storms where they occur would be frequent lightning and gusty winds (30-50mph). The heat will continue as well with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values in the 105-110 degree range. So, be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if spending time outdoors. MSW && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Convection is ongoing across the region this evening. Covered most terminals with thunder outside of MCB and GPT where thunder chances are lowest. Elsewhere, HUM will hang on to convective potential a bit longer, but all sites should be cleared prior to 05z. Convection has been very gusty this evening. These gusts will be variable, but should decrease as convection continues to decay across the region. Otherwise, later tonight mostly VFR conditions are expected and should continue through the rest of the period outside of potential lower VIS for MCB after some soaking rains. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Surface high pressure centered over the central Gulf will maintain a generally weak pressure gradient through much of the period. A predominantly westerly flow will continue, with higher winds during the early morning and late night hours. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible with winds and waves higher in and near this activity. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037- 039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100. GM...None. MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071- 077-083>088. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MSW LONG TERM....MSW AVIATION...RDF MARINE...MSW  995 FXUS65 KABQ 212326 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 526 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 524 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue today and Saturday with a risk of cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall, ponding of water on roads, as well as a risk of flash flooding below recent burn scars. - Smoke from the Frijoles Fire will continue to impact air quality in the vicinity of the fire this week. - Moderate-to-high heat risk will impact much of central and eastern New Mexico this weekend through the middle of next week with record and near-record high temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 143 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 The monsoon high has built northward a bit and become a bit more concentric with less of a west-to-east elongation. This will keep light winds aloft over NM, creating sluggish steering flows while 500 mb heights of 597-598 decameters correspond to above normal, and potentially record-breaking temperatures. This will make it difficult for slow-moving storms to propagate off of the terrain, and convective initiation in lower elevations will be largely dependent on mesoscale cold pools to catalyze development. However, a few stray updrafts will have enough instability to work with to generate isolated storms, even in the eastern plains through the evening. Storms are modeled to dissipate through the evening with minimal, if any, shower activity surviving beyond midnight. On Saturday, the upper high shifts ever so slightly to the northeast, centering near the NM-CO border with heights reaching 596-598 decameters. Slightly drier air will wrap into NM, and this will keep the heat going while storm coverage reduces and confines itself toward the western and northern high terrain. Any storms over the northern high terrain would likely become less efficient rainfall producers due to the lower PWATs (0.6 to 0.7 inch). Temperature-wise, lots of 90's and low 100's will be prevalent, especially over the lower elevation valleys and plains. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 143 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 The upper high will then settle slightly southward into Sunday with similar height and wind fields. Deterministic QPF again focuses convective initiation over the western and northern mountains Sunday afternoon with minimal storms elsewhere. A shortwave trough is modeled on the northern periphery of the high in CO, and this could ignite a few storms that sag into northern NM, but this feature will likely become more of a player into Monday, as it moves into the plains and sends a backdoor front into northeastern NM. Subtle dewpoint rises and more of an upslope surface wind component will lead to better convective initiation on the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristos Monday. Subsequent outflow will then potentially spread additional storms farther south and west with minimal changes to the storm coverage elsewhere through Monday evening. By Tuesday, the GFS continues to keep the northeast favored for storms, although surface winds will have veered and/or lost much of their upslope component by then. The long range ensembles also latch on to the northeast and secondarily the western mountains for Tuesday with the high having settled just south of I-40. The consensus is for the high to nudge slightly southwestward into Wednesday, bringing more of a northwesterly wind component aloft to the northeastern corner of NM. This will open the door to another moist front that could reintroduce storms to northeastern and east central zones through Wednesday evening. Meanwhile, PWATs of 0.6 to 0.8 inch will keep storms going over other western and northern high terrain areas, but with spotty rainfall footprints. Overall heights are shown to start reducing by 1 to 3 decameters Wednesday, but temperatures will still be above average by 5 to 10 degrees in most locales. For Thursday, the high is modeled to remain centered over southwestern NM with only slight reductions in heights (594-596 decameters at 500 mb). Storm coverage will depend on recycling of previous day's moisture, but for now PWATs are shown to range from 0.7 to 1.1 inch with the eastern plains observing higher values. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 524 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Scattered thunderstorms continue across much of central NM as of 2330z. A few outflow boundaries can be seen on radar in the Rio Grande Valley south of ABQ, as well as just east of the Sandia and Manzano Mountains. Outflow boundary collision appears likely, both with each other and with terrain, which is favorable for continued thunderstorm development. Have reintroduced PROB30s at KABQ/AEG for TSRA given a similar setup that produced evening storms yesterday. Outflows elsewhere will also be capable of brief wind gusts at or greater than 35kts, and any direct storm impacts may bring about quick MVFR/IFR visibilities. Storms should dwindle in coverage through the evening hours before ending around 06z. Additional storm development is likely across the high terrain tomorrow afternoon, once again after 18z. The primary hazards of gusty winds and brief MVFR/IFR visibilities remain. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 143 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 No widespread, long duration wind concerns are forecast through the next several days as high pressure aloft dominates the weather pattern. The monsoon high will keep winds aloft light, and any gusty wind concerns will mostly emanate from brief-lived thunderstorm outflows. The upper high will remain strong through the forecast period, keeping temperatures hot. The position of this feature will also inhibit the arrival of any new moisture increases, leading to a more subdued coverage of storms, and activity will be mostly focused over the western and northern high terrain each day. The exception will be with occasional increases in storms over northeastern NM next week where weak backdoor frontal intrusions arrive. The hot temperatures and generally more subdued moisture will lead to lower humidity values in the afternoons with minimum RH values of 12 to 20% being more common each day. The overnight and morning humidity recoveries will also be impacted with readings only rising to 40-60% in many zones with bouts of higher recovery in the eastern plains when weak, moist surface boundaries and subsequent storms arrive next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 65 94 65 95 / 30 10 20 5 Dulce........................... 54 91 52 91 / 30 40 20 20 Cuba............................ 59 89 59 90 / 30 20 20 20 Gallup.......................... 58 90 57 90 / 30 40 20 30 El Morro........................ 56 85 56 86 / 30 50 30 40 Grants.......................... 59 89 58 90 / 30 50 20 40 Quemado......................... 60 86 58 86 / 20 50 20 40 Magdalena....................... 64 88 63 89 / 20 30 20 20 Datil........................... 59 85 58 85 / 20 40 20 30 Reserve......................... 59 93 57 93 / 20 30 20 30 Glenwood........................ 64 98 63 98 / 10 30 20 20 Chama........................... 54 84 53 84 / 30 50 20 30 Los Alamos...................... 64 88 64 87 / 20 20 20 40 Pecos........................... 58 90 59 90 / 20 20 20 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 56 86 57 85 / 20 40 20 50 Red River....................... 45 80 46 78 / 20 50 30 40 Angel Fire...................... 37 83 41 82 / 20 50 20 20 Taos............................ 57 90 57 88 / 20 30 20 20 Mora............................ 55 87 55 86 / 20 30 20 40 Espanola........................ 59 95 61 94 / 20 20 20 20 Santa Fe........................ 61 91 63 90 / 20 20 20 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 59 93 61 93 / 20 10 20 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 94 67 95 / 10 5 10 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 69 95 68 96 / 10 5 10 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 62 97 63 98 / 10 5 10 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 96 69 97 / 10 5 10 5 Belen........................... 67 98 65 99 / 5 5 10 0 Bernalillo...................... 66 96 67 97 / 10 5 20 0 Bosque Farms.................... 63 97 63 97 / 10 5 10 0 Corrales........................ 66 97 67 98 / 10 5 10 0 Los Lunas....................... 64 97 64 98 / 10 5 10 0 Placitas........................ 66 93 65 94 / 10 5 20 0 Rio Rancho...................... 68 96 68 96 / 10 5 20 5 Socorro......................... 71 99 70 99 / 10 10 10 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 89 63 90 / 10 5 20 0 Tijeras......................... 64 91 64 91 / 20 5 20 0 Edgewood........................ 61 90 60 91 / 20 10 20 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 57 93 57 93 / 20 5 20 5 Clines Corners.................. 61 90 61 90 / 20 5 20 5 Mountainair..................... 62 91 61 92 / 20 5 20 0 Gran Quivira.................... 62 90 61 91 / 20 5 10 0 Carrizozo....................... 67 94 66 95 / 10 20 10 5 Ruidoso......................... 54 87 58 88 / 10 30 10 10 Capulin......................... 59 89 58 88 / 20 30 30 40 Raton........................... 57 93 58 91 / 20 20 20 40 Springer........................ 57 96 58 94 / 20 20 20 30 Las Vegas....................... 57 91 58 91 / 20 10 20 30 Clayton......................... 66 98 67 97 / 20 5 20 20 Roy............................. 62 95 64 94 / 20 5 10 10 Conchas......................... 68 102 70 101 / 20 0 10 0 Santa Rosa...................... 66 98 67 98 / 20 0 10 0 Tucumcari....................... 69 102 71 102 / 20 0 5 0 Clovis.......................... 70 99 70 100 / 20 5 5 0 Portales........................ 70 100 71 101 / 20 5 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 69 100 69 101 / 20 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 71 102 70 103 / 10 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 66 97 66 98 / 10 10 0 0 Elk............................. 63 92 62 93 / 10 20 0 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...77  087 FXUS62 KILM 212328 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 728 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe thunderstorm watch has been cancelled. Heat Advisory has been cancelled. Updated aviation discussion for the 00 UTC tafs has been updated below. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Heat Advisory for mainly coastal counties with the expectation for showers, storms, and/or cloud cover to reduce temperatures by mid-late afternoon. 2) Isolated severe storms and flash flooding possible today through tonight. 3) Near-normal temperatures expected in the long-term with low rain chances for Sunday/Monday before increasing midweek. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat continues today closer to the coast. Although increasing showers/storms/clouds will keep temperatures and heat indices lower in some spots we will keep the Heat Advisory up for at least a few more hours for heat indices generally in the 105- 109 degree range. KEY MESSAGE 2...Isolated severe storms and flash flooding possible into tonight, with a low risk for flash flooding continuing on Saturday. A trough in the jet stream and attendant cold front progressing eastward into the Carolinas will yield scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms into this evening. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has recently been issued for mainly the risk of damaging wind gusts, although large hail and a tornado can't completely be ruled out. Moderate to strong instability, steep low-level lapse rates, and anomalously high precipitable water values (~2"+) will all contributing to a wet microburst threat. Frequent lightning and very heavy rainfall are also expected with isolated flash flooding possible, especially inland from the coast where storms move over the same areas for an extended period. A low flood risk will continue into Saturday, mainly near/east of I-95 and in areas that pick up a good deal of rain today/tonight. KEY MESSAGE 3...Near-normal temperatures expected starting this weekend with low rain chances Sunday/Monday before increasing mid week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through Saturday night as a cold front stalls just west of or over the forecast area while impulses aloft continue to move through the broader trough in the jet stream. A period of mostly dry weather appears likely on Sunday and Monday as the front is shoved offshore. However, as the flow aloft becomes westerly to northwesterly around midweek, additional impulses and waves of low pressure are poised to bring periods of showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday onward, with the best chances for more widespread rain currently focused on Thursday. Of course, given this is multiple days away, the chances for rain will likely fluctuate in the coming days as smaller-scale details are worked out. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 00Z Sat thru 00Z Sun: With most areas having received plenty of rain today and some is still falling expect restrictions to follow later tonight. Debris cloudiness may hold things up but much cooler temperatures are now in the boundary layer and with plenty of moisture expect MVFR to perhaps even a smattering of IFR conditions. For later Saturday more convection is expected although not to the extent of today's coverage. 00Z Sun thru Tue: Mostly VFR expected outside low to moderate risk for cig/vsby restrictions late Sat night/early Sun, mainly inland at KLBT/KFLO. Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms will continue Saturday afternoon/evening, especially near the coast. Low risk for restrictions from showers/storms Sun/Mon with a bit better risk Tue, especially near the coast. && .MARINE... Today through Tuesday... Expect generally south to southwest winds to prevail through the period as an approaching cold front stalls near the coast. No headlines are expected as winds peak around 15-20 kts over Saturday night and wave heights stay around 3 ft or less within 20 nmi and up to 4 ft in the 20-60 nmi zones, highest this weekend. The biggest marine impact will likely be from increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms beginning this evening and continuing through the weekend as a front stalls near the coast. There will likely be several rounds of storms, accompanied by reduced visibility and possible gusty winds. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB KEY MESSAGES...RJB/ABW DISCUSSION...RJB/ABW AVIATION...SHK MARINE...RJB/ABW  116 FXUS63 KEAX 212329 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 629 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...00z Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... * Low confidence forecast tonight with scattered showers and thunderstorms across central into eastern Kansas. Stronger storms would be capable of producing damaging winds and possibly large hail. * Cooler and drier conditions Saturday into Sunday, with periodic storm chances returning as early as Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 18Z sounding from OAX shows steep mid level lapse rates from 700-500 mb leading to elevated instability. Dry layer below 600 mb leading to reservoir of downdraft CAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Cluster of storms that developed in north central Nebraska has somewhat maintained their strength working to the southeast toward the I-80 corridor. Low confidence forecast for tonight as back door cold front associated with low pressure center near the Great Lakes slides south. Instability is largely controlled by the lifting level, but if we are able to get a near surface based storm, there would be enough instability (3000-3500 J/kg) to create the potential for large hail especially with 40-45 knots of effective shear. If storms remain more elevated, the greatest severe threat would be damaging winds owing to the dry air below 600 mb. Models offer a variety of solutions with these storms this evening. It appears the atmosphere is at least weakly capped (cin 50-100 J/kg) across northwest Missouri, with an increasing cap farther south. It is unclear have long the storms would be able to maintain themselves, but some solutions suggest storms trying to build southeast through the evening hours along and west of the Missouri River Valley. Lee troughing across eastern Colorado is expected to become better organized tonight into a weak low pressure center that develops in western Kansas. A weak low level jet extending from central Oklahoma through central KS into western Nebraska is expected to lead to strong theate-e advection and additional thunderstorm development tonight. These storms are expected to move southeast overnight in northwest flow aloft building into central and eastern KS overnight. It appears these storms may primarily remain west of the forecast area, but eastern KS into far western Missouri may get brushed by any activity with the potential of large hail and damaging winds with any storm that is able to sustain itself this far east. Cooler and drier conditions are expected to build south across the region Saturday and continue into Sunday as Canadian high pressure noses into the region. Long standing ridge across the western US has periodic ridge riders that may lead to periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms. The first wave moves through the region Sunday night, with additional storms possible Wednesday morning. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Have gone with VFR conditions across the sites, but not without a small asterisk. Before that though, conditions should largely see light to variable winds this evening and into the overnight before gradually settling out of the NE. Even so, winds to remain on the lighter side under 10 mph. Periods cloud cover through much of the period, but should reside around / above 15 kft. Now for the asterisk... there should be convective activity west of the area through central into eastern Kansas late overnight tonight and Saturday morning. Guidance keeps majority of activity west of the terminals, but a few do suggest scattered shower/storm potential. Confidence was not great enough to put any mentions in at this time, but trends will continue to be monitored for any neededamendments or addition to 06z issuance. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BT SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...Curtis  359 FXUS61 KBTV 212331 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 731 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 220 PM EDT Friday... No significant changes to the current forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 220 PM EDT Friday... 1. Dry and seasonable conditions are expected as we head into the weekend through Saturday. 2. A pair of systems will increase precipitation chances across northern New York and southeastern Vermont into the latter portion of the weekend. 3. Seasonable conditions prevail for much of next week with several chances for showers. && .DISCUSSION... As of 220 PM EDT Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry and relatively seasonable conditions are expected to prevail into the early portion of the weekend with high pressure overhead. Fair weather cumulus will wane towards this evening with clearing skies tonight. More cloud cover is possible in southeastern Vermont, associated with a departing coast low off the coast of southern New England. Temperatures tonight will be cooler across the northern and western locations falling into the upper 40s to low 50s; mid 50s for the Champlain Valley and southern Vermont. A few sheltered locations could fall as low as the low 40s in portions of the Adirondacks with strong radiational cooling. Patchy river fog in the Connecticut River and sheltered river valleys of the Adirondacks and eastern Vermont will be possible near sunrise tomorrow morning. Clouds will increase from southeast to northwest in Vermont, with some clearing hanging on across the St. Lawrence Valley by tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will be fairly similar to today; about a degree or two warmer with highs in the mid 70s to near 80. More southeasterly light breezes, especially in the Champlain Valley are expected as another coastal low rides up the East Coast by mid to late Saturday. Saturday night lows will be a bit warmer with less fog and radiational cooling from increased cloud cover, with values in the mid to upper 50s in the higher terrain, and low 60s in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys. Precipitation chances begin to slowly increase late Saturday night as the coastal low departs to the east, and an approaching Great Lakes Trough slides east into northern New York. KEY MESSAGE 2: Following a calm start to the weekend, conditions will turn more wet and showery by the latter portion of the weekend. As high pressure drifts to the northwest, it will leave in its wake an area of subsidence and subtle ridging centered from northeast to southwest across Vermont Saturday and Sunday. A pair of systems will split this area of ridging bringing shower chances to portions of the area. The first of the two systems will be a weak coastal low along the coast of southern New England, which will track near Cape Cod and is expected to continue moving northeast out into the Gulf of Maine. Some showers may be possible in eastern Windsor and Orange Counties Saturday night, however, recent trends have suggested steadier precipitation associated with the coastal system will stay east of the Connecticut River. Any showers that do develop in southeastern Vermont will be light in nature. The second, higher confidence, system will be an approaching long wave trough that will track east from the Great Lakes region. The trough translates east into the St. Lawrence Valley late Saturday into early Sunday, with scattered rounds of showers. The trough slowly tracks east through the day Sunday reaching Vermont by late Sunday into Sunday night. While an isolated rumble of thunder with the shower activity cannot be ruled out, especially if an earlier shower can tap into better diurnal instability, chances are relatively low with poor mid level lapse rates, cool surface temperatures,and a lack of true instability. In all likelihood, the boundary will be a mess of scattered to isolated showers with some breaks in between, focused mainly over northern New York, and somewhat weakening as it moves east. Between both systems during the day Saturday, and most of Sunday, Vermont will be straddled between in a "no mans land" of dry and cloudy conditions. Chances for showers do not increase for Vermont until Sunday afternoon, though some isolated sprinkles or mist will be possible, especially in the higher terrain, due to low to mid level stratus clouds. Precipitation amounts will be light and have trended down in recent model runs, with probabilities of half an inch now below 50%. The higher amounts around a quarter inch will be in northern New York, primarily in the northern St. Lawrence Valley, and the spine of the Greens. The trough will pull away to the northeast heading towards Monday. As the trough occludes and drifts northeast, the parent upper low will continue to keep showers chances around with wrap around cyclonic flow. Clouds and shower chances near the International Border and northern New York will continue through the day Monday with seasonable temperatures in the low to mid 70s. KEY MESSAGE 3: Seasonable weather is expected to prevail throughout next week, with several chances for showers possible. As the upper level trough from this weekend exits the region, a few lingering showers will be possible into Tuesday, particularly across the higher terrain as broad cyclonic flow persists. A brief period of ridging is expected to build in for the middle of the week, bringing some drier weather. Additional shower chances look to arrive for the end of the week as another system moves through, although details are still a little uncertain at this time. Temperatures next week look to be quite seasonable, with high temperatures generally in the 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 00Z Sunday...Conditions are VFR across the terminals. Fair weather cumulus is dissipating past peak heating, and there's high clouds lifting into southern Vermont. Humidities are dry this afternoon, and we've had more sunshine. So fog is not expected to be as prevalent, tonight. Noted fog at our climo favored sites (KSLK/KMPV/KEFK). There could be some 10-15 kt winds just off the surface near KSLK, and this may hinder fog, and LAV guidance indicates no fog. Still, given the time of year, used a TEMPO leading into a prevailing 2SM at 09z for KSLK. KMPV will not have this hindrance, and they will likely observe 1/2SM FG around 09-12z. Beyond 12z, winds will become south to southeasterly at 5 to 9 knots with ceilings still at or above 5000 ft agl, if any. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig DISCUSSION...Kremer/Danzig AVIATION...Haynes  161 FXUS61 KPBZ 212330 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 730 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The forecast messaging remains generally unchanged. The aviation discussion has been updated for the 00z TAF cycle. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A marginal damaging wind and hail threat may develop with thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening, followed by a cold front that brings pleasant weather to the area early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The main focus remains on a shortwave that acts to deepen upper troughing over the region Saturday into Sunday morning while driving a cold front west to east through the region. Hi-res ensembles are beginning to suggest upstream convection tonight could result in some sort of decaying convective system entering our eastern Ohio counties (roughly along/west of the I-77 corridor) early to mid Saturday morning. Convective- allowing models have that feature weakening with time, but they also suggest upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE already developing ahead of it, thanks to mostly clear skies and a mid- to-late August sun angle. It's not uncommon for CAMs to weaken nocturnal/morning convection too quickly, especially in the presence of marginal MUCAPE and shear. If that ends up the case, it's possible that instead of convective initiation waiting until late afternoon and evening hours, we see an outflow boundary triggering thunderstorm development during late morning and early afternoon as it tracks eastward across the northern WV panhandle and into western PA. Assuming the morning convection does decay as CAMs suggest, confidence is fairly high that by mid to late afternoon the local storm environment could see upwards of 1500-2500 J/kg CAPE, around 850 J/kg DCAPE, and 20-30 knots of deep-layer shear that would be conducive to localized downbursts and perhaps some weak organization into multicell clusters, both of which support a damaging wind threat. Dry air aloft will also support a marginal severe hail threat, though significant/giant hail still appears unlikely. Thunderstorm activity should taper off after dark with the loss of daytime heating, followed by the cold front moving through and exiting the area by early Sunday morning. Cold core processes underneath the deeper trough behind the cold front will keep lake-enhanced shower and low probability thunderstorm chances in the forecast on Sunday, with the greatest focus along the ridges and north of Pittsburgh. Thereafter, dry weather and seasonably cool temperatures settle in through Monday until building high pressure underneath height rises fosters a warming trend back to near-seasonal levels Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Localized fog, favoring river valleys, may develop again Saturday morning with models favoring areas south and west of Pittsburgh. Confidence in more than brief impact is low, so have continued with TEMPO groups to cover this at each terminal. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon with an approaching cold front. A few of these storms could bring damaging wind gusts. Rain coverage generally decreases after sunset 00z, but isolated showers may linger into the overnight. Ceilings are expected to lower into IFR range overnight before improvement through Sunday. Outlook... Additional rain/restriction chances linger through Sunday evening thanks to cooler NW flow and lake moisture enhancement. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cermak/Frazier AVIATION...Rackley  372 FXUS61 KRLX 212331 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 731 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 728 PM Update... ~00z aviation discussion update. 229 PM Update... Forecast remains on track with previous issuances. 18Z Aviation forecast discussion update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Diurnally driven showers and storms are anticipated to spawn over the next few hours across the eastern half of the forecast area today. 2) Active weather extends into the start of the weekend as a cold front drives through the Central Appalachians by Saturday night. Thunderstorm development preceding the frontal passage may foster damaging wind gusts and hail. 3) High pressure building in for the start of the new work week will yield a stretch of dry weather and below normal temperatures across parts of the Ohio Valley. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Radar trends thus far today have kept the bulk of activity associated with a southern stream disturbance east of the Appalachians. However, additional development in Kentucky at the time of writing within blossoming cumulus signals destabilization that bears a similar environment to parts of the central lowlands. Hi-res modeling fires up a line of diurnally driven storms along the foothills and mountains for this afternoon and fading off after sunset. Leftover moisture will once again promote locally dense fog and low level stratus late tonight into Saturday morning. KEY MESSAGE 2... Amplification of an upper level trough, coupled with shortwave energy, will drive a cold front through the Ohio Valley for the start of the weekend. Daytime heating will lead to typical summertime destabilization ahead of the front, prompting blossoming cumulus fields and scattered shower and storm development. Storm initiation preceding FROPA may begin as early as 2 PM across the Ohio River Valley and also along the higher terrain with assistance from upslope lift. Radar will then remain active through the course of the afternoon and evening with the eastward push of the front, currently aiming for an arrival time into the forecast area by late Saturday night. One last line of showers and storms aligned along the boundary presses through overnight into Sunday morning, lingering longest along the higher terrain for the end of the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 3... While some lingering precipitation along the northeast WV mountains may be ongoing for the start of the day Sunday, a multi-day dry weather pattern is progged to arrive for the end of the weekend/start of next week under the guise of building high pressure. This stretch of dry weather will aid in soil recovery in the wake of what has been a very wet month across the bulk of the forecast area. Temperatures are also anticipated to fall below climatological norms in the wake of the frontal passage, with daytime highs reaching the 60s along the mountains and 70s to low 80s across the lowlands. Overnight lows will also cool down into the 40s and 50s during this time. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Scattered, nearly stationary showers and thunderstorms have spawned across the mountains, but will be gradually tapering off the next 1 to 2 hours. Have allowed VCTS and TEMPO groups at BKW and EKN as the chances are higher for impacts at these sites. Dense valley fog and some low stratus along the mountains is expected to occur tonight, especially where rainfall occurred today. IFR or lower conditions are expected with any fog or low clouds. VFR conditions will resume by ~13-14z Saturday. Winds will be light to calm for most locations tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of showers and thunderstorms may vary from the forecast. Restrictions from fog and low stratus may vary tonight and Saturday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H M L L L M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L H L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H M AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms Saturday night. Possibly again Sunday afternoon/evening. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...LTC  164 FXUS63 KABR 212330 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 630 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly dry conditions will continue through next Wednesday with temperatures around average for this time of year. - There is a 30-60% chance for showers and thunderstorms during the day Sunday into early Sunday evening over central SD, expanding to northeastern SD/west central MN Sunday night while increasing to a 40-70% chance. - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather Sunday night over much of central to northeastern SD. Brief heavy rain, lighting, and strong winds to around 60 mph will be the main concern. && .UPDATE... Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Small waves in our otherwise northwesterly flow at 500mb is helping support clouds and light showers or sprinkles mainly southwest and north of the forecast area this afternoon. The last of any lingering light showers should be to our east by 02Z. Otherwise, mainly dry weather continues through 05Z Sunday. The 500mb ridge set up to our west looks to push overhead Sunday, as a surface trough strengthens over western SD/NE. This will bring our next chance of precipitation, with a 30-60% chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms over mainly central SD Sunday into early Sunday evening before expanding/pushing over northeastern SD and west central MN Sunday night while increasing to 40-70%. As noted in the previous discussion, with high PW values, heavy rain will be possible. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather Sunday night over much of central to northeastern SD. Brief heavy rain, lighting, and strong winds to around 60 mph will be the main concern if storms develop. We'll keep an eye on Monday night into Tuesday as well as the 500mb Canadian low rotates through south central Canada with a stacked surface low pushing a cold front across our area. Additional showers or storms will be possible. Otherwise, we'll be looking at Thursday afternoon and evening for another round of showers or thunderstorms. Upper 70s to mid 80s will remain common through the period, with the highest temperatures Monday over central SD (a few low 90s possible Monday or Tuesday of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG There's a rain shower working over KATY right now. Maybe a brief stint of MVFR visby there between 00Z and 01Z. Otherwise, dry VFR conditions are forecast through Saturday afternoon. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...10 DISCUSSION...06 AVIATION...10  145 FXUS63 KDMX 212330 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 630 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal (Level 1 of 5) Risk for severe weather across southern Iowa. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. - Fairly consistent highs through midweek next week, ranging from the 70s to low 80s across Iowa. - Dry through the weekend, precipitation chances return Sunday night into Monday and at times next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A cold front is currently making its way across Iowa this afternoon and evening. In front of it, a field of diurnal cumulus has formed. There are low expectations with this cumulus field as far as precipitation chances go today. As far as the environment across Iowa goes, MLCAPE values are in the neighborhood 2500J/kg across central and eastern Iowa with little in the way of CIN. Shear in northwest Iowa is decent - around 30 kts - and guidance suggests weak forcing is available in the northwestern portion of the area. That said, dry air has been pushing its way into the state through the day and there is very little in the way of moisture return which limits the potential for convection. Similarly, across southern Iowa which has been outlined by a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) Risk for severe weather today, CAPE (around 2500J/kg) and shear (35-40kts) would indicate some amount of severe weather potential, but with dry air pushing in and very little in the way of forcing, the threat for severe weather looks highly conditional. Should the boundary provide enough forcing for an updraft to organize, there's still potential for it to produce large hail and damaging winds. Otherwise, overnight precipitation chances diminish even further as the aforementioned dry air continues to be advected in from the north. This dry air is being advected by a high pressure system, which will sink into the area on Saturday. This high pressure indicates fair weather and clear skies for the weekend. Continued northwesterly flow means temperatures will remain just below normal. Keeping with this trend, skies will remain clear Saturday night and through part of Sunday before moisture builds back into western Iowa. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Iowa remains seated between a ridge centered over the Four Corners region and a trough over the Great Lakes. If either of these systems shift, that will change how far east or west moisture gets back into the area by Sunday night, which is when the next shortwave looks to move through, potentially bringing more precipitation chances into Sunday morning. At the moment, however, deterministic guidance is still struggling with the timing of this system. With this comes some degree of disagreement with placement, all of which will be better assessed in the coming days. This upper level pattern looks to remain rather stagnant, with the potential for additional shortwaves to move through the region next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Skies are clear for the most part across the state except for some lingering smoke aloft. This may continue into tomorrow but is not expected to be impactful. Some patchy fog development remains possible tonight, but given the extra breeze behind the front and dry air advection, seems unlikely at this point. VFR cumulus may develop at our southern terminals tomorrow afternoon but confidence is too low for inclusion at this time. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM...67 AVIATION...De Bruin  301 FXUS63 KILX 212331 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 631 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms exists this evening along and north of a line from Beardstown to Lincoln to Gibson City. Hail (15%), wind (15%), and tornado (2%) threats will exist in this area, with lower probabilities further south to near I-70. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Weak high pressure ridge ~1018 mb was over near central IL early this afternoon and providing a delightful late summer day with mostly sunny skies. Temperatures were in the lower 80s at 2 pm while dewpoints were in the mid to upper 60s except lower 70s from Galesburg and Macomb west/nw. A weak cold front was over central WI into southeast Iowa. Radar mosaic shows scattered convection over northern IL from I-88 north into southern WI and tracking ESE. Moderately unstable airmass in place over the IL river valley where MLCAPES 1500-2500 j/kg nw of I-55 while bulk shear values of 30-35 kts over IL river valley and over 40 kts west of IL over central and northern MO. SPC just issued a mesoscale discussion over northern half of IL north of Lincoln where severe storm threat is increasing and monitoring a possible watch box. HRRR and RRFS models show broken band of convection moving into far northern CWA just after sunset and toward I-55 by late evening, and weakening as it moves toward I-70 around 3 am. SPC continues slight risk of severe storms this evening along and north of a line from Beardstown to Lincoln to Gibson City. Hail (15%), wind (15%), and tornado (2%) threats will exist in the Slight Risk area. CAPES reach 2000-3000 j/kg over the IL river valley nw of I-55 while wind shear values 30-40 kts and also in favorable region of se moving upper level jet for enhanced lift. Further south a Marginal Risk exists as far southeast as near I-70, with mainly low end hail/wind (5%) threats for this evening in this area. WPC Day1 outlook has marginal risk of excessive rainfall over northern CWA this evening where pockets of 1 inch or more of rain possible on a saturated ground. But convection bands will be more progressive than Wed night system so rainfall amounts should be much lower. Quieter weather is generally expected this weekend into early next week over central/se IL, though a few model members show isolated convection (20% or less) over ne CWA Sat afternoon where MUCAPES get to 1000-1500 j/kg. The stronger short wave forcing is ne of CWA Sat afternoon over ne IL into northern IN where better chance of convection will be. A Northwest upper level flow to prevail over IL through middle of next week with strong mid/upper level ridge over Southwest States and upper level low/trof in eastern Canada and northeast US. Another northern stream short wave disturbance to move se into the Midwest for middle of next week and bring next chance of convection around Wednesday though current NBM just has slight pops over area. Temps to be near a bit below normal early next week with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s Sun/Monday and coolest night Sunday night with lows in mid to upper 50s. Temps moderate a bit for middle of next week along with increasing humidity levels/dewpoints with highs back in the low to mid 80s Tue-Fri (mid to upper 80s southern CWA Wed-Fri). The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8-14 Day Outlook for Aug 29-Sep 4 has 40-50% chance of above normal temperatures over central/se IL and precipitation trending near normal except slight above normal near the Indiana border. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Primarily VFR conditions at all sites outside of thunderstorms, but do have MVFR vis when the line of storms does move through each site this evening. There could be a brief period of cigs dropping below 3kft but believe it will be when heaviest rain occurs only. Except for PIA, have started all sites with VCTS and then a one hr tempo group for when storms will be on site. Conditions should improve quickly behind the line of storms after they pass. Expecting scattered clouds tomorrow with clearing in the afternoon. Winds will be southwest ahead of the line of storms and then become west to northwest behind them. Speeds of 10kts of less ahead and behind, but expecting winds 10-15kts tomorrow. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...07 DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...Auten  152 FXUS64 KBRO 212330 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 630 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 629 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Hot and dry conditions will continue through the forecast period. - Moderate (level 2 of 4) to major risk (3 of 4) of heat-related impacts through the weekend with peak afternoon heat indices generally between 105 to around 110 degrees. - The combination of breezy and mostly dry weather coinciding with low afternoon minimum relative humidity values brings a continued risk of fire weather into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 No changes to the going forecast. Upper level ridging continues to lead to hot temperatures and dry conditions across Deep South Texas. Temperatures each day will rise into the upper 90s (closer to the coast) to low 100s with heat indices between 105-110F expected. We continue to remain just shy of Heat Advisory criteria each day but a few locations may briefly exceed 111F. Will continue to monitor for the need of Heat Advisories, though at this time Special Weather Statements should suffice. There is a Moderate (level 2 of 4) to Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk every afternoon into next week. While dry conditions will prevail (less than 5%), can not rule out very isolated sea breeze activity through the remainder of the period. Breezy conditions in combination of lower RH value and abnormally dry conditions could lead to the potential for rapid wildfire spread if ignited. While we will look to fall shy of and Red Flag Warnings or Fire Danger Statements, outdoor burning is not recommended. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 629 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Southeast winds 15 to 20 kts with gusts around 25 kts prevail across Deep South Texas early this evening. Winds are expected to decrease later this evening and overnight. Southeast winds will increase and become moderate and gusty mid to late morning. Some gusts up to 25 knots will be possible in the afternoon. VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 While generally favorable conditions will prevail, an enhanced pressure gradient along the immediate coast may result in brief Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions at times across the Laguna Madre. Otherwise, expect light to moderate southeasterly winds with 2 to 3 ft seas and 4 to 6 second periods. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 99 79 98 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 76 104 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 79 105 78 104 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 105 76 104 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 90 80 89 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 98 78 96 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68-AM LONG TERM....68-AM AVIATION...63-KC  351 FXUS64 KLCH 212331 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 631 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect until 8 PM for areas along and north of I-10. Expect highs 97 to 104F and/or heat indices 111 to 114F range. Coastal areas under an Advisory until 8 PM for HIs up to 111F. - Heat Stress Levels have increased to Extreme (level 4 of 4) for southeast Texas and Louisiana Friday; this level of heat stress will persist through at least Monday. - A boundary capable of producing showers and thunderstorms will move through this evening. The greatest threat will be strong wind gusts and lightning. - Lightning and volatile winds could exacerbate fire conditions with storm passage. Check with your local officials for burn bans across SETX and CEN/SWLA. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Looking to 500 mb, a shortwave perturbation moved southeast through AR/MS, inducing a pressure gradient from south AR into north LA. The gradient then opens to the south, inducing a region of broad lift from northeast LA to central MS. Thus, a cluster of showers and storms have developed. Weak showers have spread west towards the Lakes region, but none of these updrafts have successfully taken root. This is more or less the wall of subsidence put on by upper ridging nosing over from east Texas. A modest increase in coverage, and perhaps intensity, will be possible for areas north of hwy190. According to meso modeling and the 18z sounding, the airmass overhead does carry some characteristics supportive of wet downbursts. There is plenty of CAPE, and lapse rates are favorable for strong updraft growth, which is what we are seeing in the more conducive environment to the east. However, weak capping off the surface and warm mid layer environment both existing beneath upper ridge influence could be enough to limit any real organized severe potential. Where storms can overcome the limitations, strong, damaging downdraft winds and frequent lightning are expected. The threat should diminish with sundown. Hot conditions will then persist through the remainder of the weekend as high pressure moves back overhead. Temperatures and dewpoints should not be so enhanced that extreme heat warnings are necessary, but heat advisories will be needed. A heat advisory has been issued area wide from 11 AM to 8 PM Saturday. 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Widespread showers and thunderstorms are present across central Louisiana and are expected to move south through the rest of the evening. Near convection conditions will be MVFR/IFR with variable and gusty winds. Behind the storms conditons will improve with VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Surface ridging extending over the entire Gulf will keep conditions over the waters mostly clear of rain chances and with low, onshore winds and seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms has developed across northeast LA and south central MS. An increase in coverage is possible across central LA into the mid to late afternoon and evening as a weak boundary is pushed through the region. Confidence is low for an organized severe risk, but there is at least a 25 percent chance of strong outflow winds and frequent lightning with storms this evening. These hazards could exacerbate fire conditions. Hot and dry conditions then return from Saturday through early next week with daytime RH mins in the 30 to 50 percent range. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033- 044-045-055-141>143-152>154-241>243. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ027>033-044- 045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ073-074-252>254. TX...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201- 259>262-515-516-615-616. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ180-201- 259>262-515-516-615-616. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11 AVIATION...14  179 FXUS64 KMAF 212330 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 630 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 630 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Hot temperatures continue through the forecast period with little to no chance of rain. - Drink plenty of fluids and seek shade frequently as heat illnesses due to prolonged exposure to heat may occur. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Heat remains the main concern for the area through the short term forecast. Overnight lows, particularly east of Midland and Fort Stockton settle only into the mid to upper 70s. A few spots may stay near 80F. Highs on Saturday move into the low to mid 100s across the Western Low Rolling Plains/eastern Permian Basin. For this, have issued a Heat Advisory for those northeastern counties that begins Saturday afternoon and carries through to Sunday evening. Lows in that area may not get below 80F Saturday night. The combination of above normal temperatures during the day and the inability of the land to cool off at night presents increased heat risk, especially to those working outdoors. A storm or two across the northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico may be seen this evening as convection develops to the north of these areas. Any storms that form would contain gusty winds, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall. Beyond tonight however, rain chances will be near zero through at least Sunday. -Stickney && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 The upper-level ridge is expected to shift east and become centered over our region Sunday through at least Tuesday next week. This yields afternoon highs at or above 100 degrees across most locations, with temperatures between 105 and 110 degrees in the Big Bend. Some portions of the northeast Permian Basin and Trans Pecos look to reach near 105 as well. By late week, the upper-level ridge axis shifts back to the west which allows for temperatures to cool a few degrees. A few showers/storms are possible late next week, though sinking motion under the ridge will limit convection. Greening && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR conditions and southeast winds continue this TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 76 104 76 104 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 74 101 73 102 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 76 102 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 73 100 74 100 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 70 93 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 72 100 72 100 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 63 94 64 94 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 76 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 76 100 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 75 102 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM CDT Sunday for Borden- Howard-Mitchell-Scurry. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...10  178 FXUS64 KOHX 212330 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 630 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 626 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Low rain and storm chances east of I-65 Saturday, best chances across the Plateau. - Overall drier with slightly below-normal temperatures this weekend with fog possible Saturday and Sunday mornings. - Low to medium rain and storm chances next week with seasonal temperatures. && .UPDATE... Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A shortwave continues to move east of the area, and while a couple storms were able to develop across the Plateau, those have now moved into East TN. The rest of the evening and night should be quiet with the only concern being patchy fog. Highest confidence in fog is across the Plateau, and any fog that does develop will burn away after sunrise. Another weak disturbance brings a low chance for rain/storms tomorrow afternoon. Do expect that coverage will be isolated with most of the area enjoying a nice dry Saturday with temperatures in the upper-80s to low-90s. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Upper-level troughing is situated across the eastern CONUS and an embedded shortwave disturbance is now moving off to our east. Drier tropospheric air has now worked into the region with PWs in the 1.3" range, though surface dewpoints in the low 70s are lingering making for humid conditions today. Overall we expect lesser convective coverage today with only low rain/storm chances focused across the Plateau this afternoon and evening. Otherwise we'll enjoy a light northwesterly wind today with scattered clouds. Mostly clear skies and calm winds will support radiational cooling tonight, so fog development is possible, especially across the valleys and cooler rural areas. Another weak perturbation looks to rotate in from the northwest tomorrow which has resulted in additional rain shower/isolated storm chances. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Troughing will remain in place this weekend with northwesterly flow persisting across our region. This will favor slightly below-normal temperatures with cooler overnight conditions into Monday. The trough will slowly migrate east by Tuesday which will help bring temperatures up a couple degrees. This will also open the door for an axis of higher PWs/instability to push into the area from the west. At least a couple of passing shortwave perturbations are progged to move through the northwesterly flow aloft which should foster isolated to scattered rain/storms Tuesday through Thursday. Forecast temperatures are essential right at seasonal norms most days next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR conditions prevail this taf cycle. Northwest winds will persist through much of the period with a gradual transition north late Saturday afternoon. Calm winds and clear skies overnight will encourage fog development, some dense, mostly impacting CSV and SRB. Probabilities for vis less than VFR thresholds at BNA, MQY and CKV are low, less than 20%. Fog will burn off after sunrise and winds at all terminals will pick up with occasional gusts up to 20 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 65 92 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 65 91 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 63 85 59 81 / 0 20 0 0 Columbia 67 93 66 90 / 0 0 10 0 Cookeville 66 87 62 83 / 0 30 0 0 Jamestown 65 85 61 82 / 0 30 0 0 Lawrenceburg 66 91 64 88 / 0 0 10 0 Murfreesboro 68 93 65 89 / 0 10 0 0 Waverly 67 92 65 88 /0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Clements SHORT TERM...Sizemore LONG TERM....Sizemore AVIATION.....Baggett  149 FXUS65 KPSR 212330 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 430 PM MST Fri Aug 21 2026 .UPDATE...00Z Aviation Discussion && .KEY MESSAGES... - High temperatures reach or exceed 110 degrees nearly every day through the next week and will be within a few degrees of daily records, while morning lows remain unusually warm. - Extreme Heat Warning in effect through next Friday evening with daily Major to Extreme HeatRisk. - Isolated thunderstorms will primarily favor higher terrain areas through this weekend, with drier and less favorable conditions next week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Extreme heat will be the primary weather hazard through the short, and long, term forecast. Latest objective analysis shows a 599dam high centered near the Four Corners region, with 596-598dam heights over the local area. Heights of this magnitude are at or above the 99th percentile of sounding climatology. So, it is no surprise that forecast high temperatures this afternoon, and through this weekend, will be within a few degrees of daily records, topping out around 110-116 degrees. Morning low temperatures will also remain very warm and near daily record warm lows, in the mid 80s to low 90s, offering little to no relief from the daytime heat. This combo will lead to widespread Major HeatRisk through the weekend and an Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect. The thunderstorm chances for the lower deserts this afternoon are not great, due to the warm air aloft and drier air that moved in aloft as well. However, surface dew point temperatures remain seasonally elevated, ranging from the mid-50s to mid-60s. This is contributing to high SBCAPE values early this afternoon, up to and in excess of 1500 J/kg. This setup was resulting in cu development over prominent terrain features as of 1 PM MST and strong storms were already going over southeast AZ where mesoanalysis was showing an uncapped environment. The cap over much of south- central AZ and points westward, although relatively weak (SBCIN between -20 to -40 J/kg) will likely keep convective development reserved to the prominent terrain features, like the Table Top Mtns, Kofas, and perhaps Pinal Mtns. Instability is also expected to decline through the rest of the afternoon as the PBL continues to mix out. This will inhibit updraft strength with time. Any storm that does go up this afternoon will be capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts, due to high DCAPE values up to 1800-2000 J/kg. An outflow may move up into south-central AZ later this evening from southeast AZ storms, but it will likely take a very strong outflow to trigger additional activity in northwest Pinal and Maricopa Counties. Guidance shows boundary layer moisture will drop into tomorrow, with afternoon dew point temperatures across the lower deserts mostly in the mid-50s. This will result in lower SBCAPE values, but surface temperatures will be slightly hotter and hi-res models show weaker inhibition, if not uncapped, and slightly steeper mid-level lapse rates. This may support slightly better coverage of afternoon convection tomorrow versus today, but still focusing primarily over the prominent terrain features. Strong to locally severe wind gusts and blowing dust will be the primary hazard with any storm tomorrow afternoon, with high DACPE values again. It still may take one good outflow or multiple outflows and outflow collisions to trigger storms near/in the Phoenix area. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/... Model uncertainty remains for the first half of next week, primarily with respect to thunderstorm chances, as the position of the high is likely to set up somewhere over eastern New Mexico and western Texas by Monday. There is good global ensemble consensus in a brief increase in moisture and instability Sunday evening into Monday, most notably across southwest AZ and southeast CA, but NBM forecast PoPs are mostly under 15% for the lower deserts both days. At this point, we could continue to see mostly slight chances favoring the high terrain into early next week, but if moisture does eventually improve enough storm chances are likely to be higher than what the NBM is depicting. By Tuesday, drier air will filter back into the region as the subtropical high begins to retrograde back over our region. This will limit low end rain chances almost exclusively to the higher terrain areas with the lower deserts remaining dry. By the latter half of next week, the NBM shows PoPs being confined to the Mogollon Rim with no chances for our CWA. Temperatures are expected to continue to be more influenced by the strong subtropical high as H5 heights hover between 593-596dm across the Desert Southwest through early next week. Daytime highs are not expected to change much from Sunday to Monday, barring any significant change with the convective chances. As mentioned above, by Tuesday the subtropical high will start to retrograde back to the west and the center will eventually settle over AZ/NM during the latter half of the workweek. The high is also expected to strengthen to around 596-598dam during this time. The combination of the center settling over our region and strengthening will result in temperatures heating up to around 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Afternoon highs (morning lows) ware forecast in the 110-116 (85-95) degree range across the lower deserts and in the 100-110 (75-85) degree range across the higher terrain areas. The increase in temperatures will also result in an increase in HeatRisk, with widespread Extreme HeatRisk forecast for the majority of the CWA by Wednesday. There is high confidence already in the heat forecast for next week. So, the Extreme Heat Warning was been extended through next Friday and will likely need to be expanded to more areas by the middle of the week. && .AVIATION...Updated at 2330Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major aviation concerns are expected during the TAF period. Winds will follow light and diurnal trends with speeds generally aob 10 kt. There remains a slight chance (~20%) of an outflow from distant convection moving through this evening, but the potential remains too low to include mention of a boundary in the TAFs at this time. SCT cloud decks will be present through much of the forecast window, with the lowest bases around 10-12 kft. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation concerns are expected through Saturday afternoon. Typical diurnal trends, along with overnight and early morning VRB conditions, can be anticipated at the terminals, with westerly flow switching to the southeast at KIPL, while KBLH fluctuates between southwest and south-southeast. A decaying outflow is possible at KIPL this evening, but the only impact looks to be a reinforcement of westerly flow. Other than a FEW mid and high level cloud decks, skies will be mostly clear. && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and seasonally dry conditions are expected nearly every day, through next week. Aside from a brief increase in moisture Sunday- Monday, minimum RH values each afternoon will be around 12-18% (15-25% Sun-Mon). Temperatures will range 5-10 degrees above normal through the next week, with lower desert highs eclipsing 110 degrees most afternoons. There will be slight chances for storms each afternoon through this weekend, but mostly favoring higher terrain areas. Drier conditions, with lower storm chances are expected by the middle of next week. Outside of thunderstorm outflow winds, winds will follow the typical diurnal tendencies with some modest afternoon upslope gustiness. && .CLIMATE... Record highs: Date Phoenix Yuma El Centro ---- ------- ---- --------- Aug 21 114 in 2019 115 in 1969 117 in 1969 Aug 22 113 in 2011 115 in 1969 117 in 1969 Aug 23 114 in 2011 115 in 2011 116 in 1969 Aug 24 115 in 2020 119 in 1985 117 in 1985 Aug 25 113 in 2011 116 in 1962 117 in 1962 Aug 26 117 in 2011 115 in 2020 115 in 1981 Aug 27 114 in 2023 120 in 1981 117 in 1981 Aug 28 117 in 2023 118 in 2023 117 in 2009 && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Friday for AZZ530>555-559- 560. CA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for CAZ562-565>567- 569-570. && $$ SHORT TERM...Benedict LONG TERM...Berislavich/Benedict AVIATION...RW FIRE WEATHER...Benedict CLIMATE...18  422 FXUS61 KBUF 212332 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 732 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Only minor changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Periodic showers and scattered thunderstorms this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Periodic showers and scattered thunderstorms this weekend into early next week. High pressure will maintain fair weather through tonight while drifting to our east. Our weather will turns unsettled this weekend, as an upper level trough digs southeastward across Ontario and eventually closes off over southern Ontario/southwestern Quebec later Sunday/Sunday night. An attendant elongated surface low will slowly push a warm front into our region Saturday, followed by a cold front Saturday night into Sunday morning. Dry weather is likely maintained through early Saturday afternoon, before the arrival of the warm front and associated moisture return. The warm front, increasing moisture and modest diurnally instability should be enough to set off some scattered convection from the Finger Lakes westward, with showers/storms becoming more numerous across the Southern Tier toward evening. Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will follow Saturday night through Sunday morning, as the cold front crosses our region and the upper trough approaches. PWAts during this time will peak around 1.5", which could lead to a few locally heavy downpours. Unfavorable timing of the front should keep the severe threat to a minimum. A cyclonic flow of progressively cooler air will overspread our region Sunday through Monday behind the front, with 850 mb temperatures will bottoming out in the +6C to +8C range later Sunday night into Monday. This regime will support additional scattered instability showers and a few storms Sunday through Monday, with these potentially turning a little more numerous as deeper wraparound moisture and shortwave impulses pivoting around the larger-scale closed upper low. The progressively cooler air should also allow for areas of lake enhanced/lake effect rain showers downwind of the lakes as the prevailing large-scale flow focusing most of these east of Lake Erie and ENE/E of Lake Ontario. Improving conditions are expected Monday night and Tuesday as the upper low ejects northeastward across Quebec and high pressure and drier air builds across our region. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface high pressure slides east tonight, most if not all TAF sites will see VFR. There may be some 'limited' valley fog but will likely not impact KJHW overnight. Meanwhile a surface low overhead of northern Wisconsin will continue to progress east across the Great Lakes, reaching northern Michigan by 12Z Saturday. A surface warm front will extend eastward and push into WNY after 18Z Saturday, supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop across areas south of Lake Ontario. Within any shower/thunderstorm, localized MVFR to LIFR conditions will be possible along with gusty winds in excess of 35kt. A line of showers and embedded thunderstorms will then slide east across the area Saturday night into Sunday morning ahead of a passing cold front associated with the aforementioned surface low. Ceilings will lower to MVFR from west to east, and IFR across the western Southern Tier overnight. Outlook... Sunday through Monday...Periodic showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms with associated MVFR/IFR...with mainly VFR expected outside of any precipitation. Monday night and Tuesday...Scattered showers and associated restrictions east of Lake Ontario diminishing...otherwise mainly VFR. Wednesday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure will exit into New England tonight. A modest southeasterly to southerly flow will develop tonight and Saturday as the high exits and elongated low pressure pushes east across the central Great Lakes and Southern Ontario. This low will push a warm front and trailing cold front across the lower Great Lakes later Saturday through Sunday morning. While wind speeds during this time should remain below 20 knots, these boundaries will help generate periodic showers and scattered thunderstorms, a few of which could produce locally higher winds and waves. A cyclonic, west-southwesterly to westerly flow of cooler air will overspread the lower Great Lakes behind the front for Sunday and Monday. This may support some SCA-worthy conditions on both lakes with the chance for some waterspouts. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TMA AVIATION...AR/EAL MARINE...TMA  463 FXUS62 KFFC 212332 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 732 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon will pose a damaging wind gust threat across Central Georgia. Frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall possible with any storms. - Warm and humid again today but slightly 'cooler' and more seasonal temperatures return this weekend into early next week. - Mostly dry this weekend with low daily rain chances returning for most by mid-week next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 An upper level longwave trough currently extends from the northern Great Lakes towards the Deep South, and will continue to amplify as its axis shifts eastward towards the Atlantic coast. A surface front associated with this trough has entered far northwest Georgia. The movement of the trough will help advance the frontal boundary south and east through the afternoon and evening. Areas along and south of the front will be the focus for thunderstorm activity amid a warm and moist environment. Temperatures in portions of central and east Georgia will climb into the into the mid to upper 90s (compared to low 90s in areas north of I-85) while dewpoints remain in the low 90s. Robust destabilization within this hot and humid airmass combined with forcing ahead of the front will allow storms to develop quickly during the remainder of the afternoon. This will culminate in high-end chance to low-end likely PoPs in areas generally south/east of Atlanta from 4 PM to 8 PM, with gradually diminishing chances during the evening with the loss of daytime heating. With SBCAPE values between 2500-3500 J/kg, DCAPE values between 800- 1200 J/kg, and precipitable water values of 1.9-2.2 inches, several storms this afternoon and evening will be capable of becoming severe. Downburst winds up to 60 mph will be the primary threat with any severe storms that occur, which will be capable of damaging trees and powerlines. Storms over the course of the day will also contain frequent lightning and be highly efficient rainfall producers given deep moisture. This could lead to isolated flooding concerns, especially if stronger storms linger over urban or flood- prone areas. On Saturday, the trough axis will clear Georgia to the east, pushing the frontal boundary through the forecast area. Noticeably drier air will filter in behind this front, lowering dewpoints into the 60s across the majority of the area. Though highs will still rise into the low 90s, it will feel less oppressive given these dewpoints. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in east-central Georgia closest to the front on Saturday afternoon, while clear conditions are forecast elsewhere across the forecast area. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday morning through next Thursday) Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 By the end of the weekend, temps will have fallen into the upper 80s and low 90s with RH values in the afternoon will drop into the mid to low 40s bringing heat index values down and making it feel very dry for this time of year. A welcome relief from the hot an humid weather that had seem to be stuck over GA for the past month. With this dry airmass behind the front, we'll also get a break from thunderstorms during the afternoon as well until Wednesday when winds become more southerly and we start to pull moisture back in from the Gulf. This weekend and early next week will be a great opportunity to be outside without hating it. After Wednesday, the upper level flow becomes more zonal and we'll start to see a return to the diurnal pattern that we are used to. With that pattern, we are also expecting a slow return of triple digit heat indices for the second half of the work week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 730 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Mostly VFR conditions thru period, with sct tsra through the evening hours. MVFR to IFR psbl near AHN with iso to sct MVFR briefly psbl over to PDK tmrw morn. Winds remain W at 3 to 8kts. VFR tmrw. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Medium confidence precip longevity this evening. High confidence all other elements. SM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 70 91 69 92 / 40 0 0 0 Atlanta 72 91 72 91 / 20 0 0 10 Blairsville 65 85 63 83 / 10 0 0 0 Cartersville 70 91 68 90 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 73 94 73 94 / 50 0 0 0 Gainesville 70 90 69 89 / 10 0 0 0 Macon 72 92 72 94 / 60 10 10 0 Rome 70 92 68 91 / 0 0 0 10 Peachtree City 71 92 70 92 / 30 0 0 10 Vidalia 72 94 73 96 / 50 20 10 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...King LONG TERM....Vaughn AVIATION...SM  483 FXUS63 KGID 212333 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 633 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Area of scattered showers/storms continues to push SE across the area this afternoon...a trend that will continue into early this evening. Not out of the question a few could be on the strong-severe side...large hail/damaging wind would be the main hazards. - Expecting a lull in activity mid-late evening, before another chance for showers/storms moves into the area later tonight (mainly after midnight). There will again the potential for some storms to be strong-severe tonight into early Sat AM...large hail/damaging wind again the main threats. - Additional, periodic thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast this weekend into the new work week...primarily favoring the evening/overnight hours. - Not looking at any notable swings in temperatures either way through this 7-day forecast period. Mainly 80s...some 70s possible on Sunday...90s possible at times through the week across southwestern areas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 346 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Currently through the rest of this afternoon... Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to make their way southeast across the forecast area today...a trend that will continue though mid-late afternoon hours. Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data showing this activity being driven by a weaker shortwave disturbance sliding out of central SD and into NNErn NE. This disturbance is embedded in larger scale northwesterly flow set up across the Central/Nrn Plains...between ridging extending northward out of the Desert SW and broad troughing across the Great Lakes/Midwest region, while a larger area of low pressure spins off the Pac NW coast. The surface pattern across the forecast area has been a bit of a messy one throughout the day...between just an overall weaker pressure gradient along with any even weak outflow boundaries produced by this activity today...winds are variable in direction. Most speeds have been around 5-10 MPH, a few spots closer to any storms have had gusts closer to 25-30 MPH at least for a brief time. For the rest of this afternoon-early evening...main story will continue to lie with continued potential for scattered showers/storms pushing SE through and eventually out of the forecast area. Near/out ahead of this activity, SPC meso page showing MLCAPE values exceeding 2000 j/kg, with deeper layer/effective shear of at least 30kts. Storms working their way SE will continue to have the potential to be strong/severe...one thing working against activity is that the upper level disturbance/lift just isn't overly strong, which isn't helping overcome some lingering capping. Large hail/damaging winds would be the primary threats. One good thing about the scattered nature of this activity is that so far, areas that had been on the wetter side over the past few days are getting a chance to dry up a bit. Later tonight on into this weekend... Once this ongoing activity slides off to our SE, models continue to show a relative lull across the area through the evening hours. Winds should be turning more east-northeasterly, with models showing an area of sfc low pressure setting up off to our west- southwest...but speeds look to remain on the lighter side overall. A few models try to bring another round of isolated activity back into the area already by around 06Z, but there is more model support for the timing of the next round of showers/storms to be closer to/after 08Z or so. Models showing this activity developing into a NW-SE orientated swath across the forecast area...tied to another weaker, mainly mid-level shortwave disturbance moving through, aided some by frontogenetical forcing closer to 850mb. Hi-res models showing this elevated activity could have CAPE values around 1500 j/kg to tap into, with deeper layer shear around 30-40kts possible...keeping the potential for strong-severe storms in place. Entire CWA remains in the SPC Day 1 Slight Risk area through tonight...large hail and damaging winds remain the primary threats, though additional heavy rainfall rates are not out of the question as well. Not out of the question that some activity could linger into the morning hours on Saturday...and uncertainty in the exact timing of that departure is not high...but outside of that models are in pretty good agreement showing the daytime hours being dry. Aloft, models showing continued northwesterly flow across the area...if anything that low pressure system currently off the Pac NW starts pushing inland, giving the main ridge axis a bit of an eastward push. Winds look to remain on the lighter side around 10-15 MPH, remaining easterly. Forecast highs are in the mid-upper 80s. Models showing another upper level shortwave disturbance riding around the edge of the ridge axis Saturday evening through Sunday AM...bringing another chance for showers/storms to the entire forecast area. The area is currently not outlooked in the SPC Day 2 outlook (just in general thunder)...with models currently showing the better axis of instability setting up just off to our west, and deeper layer shear is on the weaker side. Confidence in precipitation chances Sunday-Sunday night is on the lower side (outside of any lingering activity from Sat night)...with NBM PoPs mainly clipping northern and eastern portions of of the forecast area. Models not showing any notable change in the upper level pattern...and winds turn more southerly as sfc troughing develops over the High Plains. Forecast highs are more in the upper 70s for central/eastern areas, low-mid 80s further west...but that will be dependent on timing of any lingering precipitation. Next week... Periodic thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast as we get into the new work week...but honestly, not a ton of confidence at this point in the timing/tracking of any of the upper level disturbances driving these chances. Models show varying amplitude of the main upper level ridging through the week...so a stronger northward push of the ridge could push better precip chances out of the area, a more zonal pattern could bring more chances...plenty of details to iron out in the coming days. Not seeing any notable swings in temperatures either way through the week...with forecast highs mainly in the mid 80s-low 90s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions favored throughout a majority of the TAF period with a chance for sub-VFR conditions during storms tonight/Saturday morning. Ongoing showers/storms in the vicinity of KGRI/KEAR will continue to shift southeast and away over the next couple of hours. After midnight, a cluster of storms is favored to move in from the northwest, impacting KGRI/KEAR during the 08-13z timeframe. There remains some uncertainty on the strength and exact timing of storms, but this window continues to be the most favored. Storms could produce gusty winds (potentially hail too), so VRB20KT winds were included in the PROB30. Should a stronger storm impact KGRI/KEAR it could result in briefly sub-VFR conditions though confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF at this time. Otherwise storm chances end after 13z, with skies clearing and winds becoming easterly. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...Davis  534 FXUS61 KRNK 212334 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 734 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Kept some pops around this evening into the overnight but widely scattered to isolated, except maybe an uptick toward far SW VA and southside VA early this evening. Appears severe/flooding threat are low. Aviation Forecast Updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers to be widely scattered tonight. A cold front pushing into the region late Saturday will bring additional chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms. 2) After continued showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, drier weather returns Sunday and continues into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Widely scattered showers tonight, then cold front pushing into the region late Saturday will bring additional chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Best convection earlier this afternoon into early evening has been south of our county warning mainly along the I-40 corridor in NC. The morning into early afternoon cluster that moved across stabilized the airmass just enough to keep convection limited. Still with plenty of low level moisture convergence over the area will likely see widely scattered showers/few storms into the overnight but the severe/hydro threat look low. Previous discussion... A more potent upper level shortwave ejecting south out of Canada tomorrow will bring with it a much stronger cold front into the region late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Ahead of this cold front, plenty of warm and moist air will allow widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop across the Ohio valley and translate east through the late afternoon and evening hours. Current CAM guidance keeps the timing of these storms moving into our region during the late evening hours and early overnight hours. While this typically does not bode well with thunderstorm strength and activity, the amount of forcing for ascent from the cold front and the aforementioned upper level shortwave may overcome the lack or waning instability to keep thunderstorm activity going longer than is typical. Nevertheless, the 0-6 Km deep layer shear looks to increase to around 30-40 knots for the area based. This wind shear is supported with HREF probabilities above 50% in some cases for shear values above 30 knots. Some lingering instability of 500-1000 J/Kg of SBCAPE will help support storm development as the front approaches. As the front pushes through the area during the late evening and early overnight hours, some lingering showers may still be ongoing across the Piedmont of VA and NC during the early morning hours before clearing builds across the area on Sunday with the injection of drier air from the northwest. KEY MESSAGE 2: After continued showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, drier weather returns Sunday and continues into early next week. Behind the aforementioned frontal passage, a much cooler and drier airmass will settle into the region as high pressure build east across the Mid- Atlantic and southeast. Coolest air arrives on Sunday and Monday with highs in the 70s in the mountains and low to mid 80s east of the mountains. Lows Sunday and Monday morning will drop into the 50s with a few locations possibly into the low 50s in the mountains. Expect foggy mornings across the mountains, especially in the river valleys, and cool dry afternoons for much of the region through Tuesday. Surface high pressure and upper level troughing across the eastern Conus breaks down by Wednesday, which will allow showers and thunderstorms to occur across the area once again. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MVFR to VFR this evening likely to transition to IFR or lower for the area overnight into Sat morning. Ceilings dropping into the 100 to 900 foot range after 06z, appears likely. Vsbys will drop as well, but low stratus should limit fog somewhat. Should be a slow improvement in the 12-16z time frame from IFR/LIFR to VFR. Storms are possible Sat afternoon but too scattered to mention in the tafs yet. Winds stay light/calm through most of the period, a slight increase from the west/southwest ahead of the front Saturday afternoon possible, in the 5-10kt range. OUTLOOK... Drier airmass situated over the Great Lakes will sink into the area Sunday into early next week. Should be mainly VFR aside from any late night fog, mainly LWB/BCB. Next system appears to bring some chances for storms Wednesday with possibility for sub-VFR cigs/vsbys. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EB/WP AVIATION...EB/WP  657 FXUS62 KJAX 212337 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 737 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Stormy Today & Saturday. Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Afternoon & into Evening. Hazards: Gusty Winds (40-60 mph), localized flooding, & frequent lightning. Daily isolated to scattered afternoon & evening storms Sunday - Thursday - Moderate Afternoon Rip Current Risk Today && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Highlights through Tonight: - Heat advisories in effect for portions of the area this afternoon - Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening Mid level shortwave aloft across inland SE GA just north of the FL/GA border has triggered scattered showers and storms this morning across Clinch/Echols/Hamilton counties. This feature will slowly drift off to the E-NE this afternoon/evening and interact with sea breeze and outflow boundaries to produce scattered to numerous showers and storms, mainly from the I-10 corridor of NE FL northward across all of SE GA. Cooler than normal temps aloft from -7C to -8C at 500 mb will help to increase mid level lapse rates and expect scattered strong to isolated severe storms with gusty winds to 40-60 mph along with heavy downpours and localized flood threat due to the slow storm motion towards the E-NE around 10 mph or less. This activity will then interact with southward moving frontal boundary convection near the Altamaha River Basin and expect numerous to widespread showers and storms later this evening into the early overnight hours of inland SE GA near the Altamaha Basin that will continue the heavy rainfall threat, although much of this local area has been rain-free for several days, so mainly urban areas will have the higher flood threat tonight. As far as temps go this afternoon/evening, the mid level shortwave and abundant clouds have lessened the coverage of heat advisory conditions, but just enough pockets of Max Temps into the lower to middle 90s will produce some heat indices of 105-109F, so will keep current heat advisory in place for now. Low temps tonight should drop into the lower/middle 70s inland, mostly due to rain cooled temps for most locations, with upper 70s along the Atlantic Coastal areas. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period (Saturday and Sunday): - Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms Saturday - Localized Flooding Rain Risk Saturday - Drier Sunday for Southeast GA Unsettled weather continues Saturday with likely ongoing areas of morning showers and isolated storms moving inland from the Gulf coast region with the approach of the surface front under the meandering mid level trough across the area aloft. Convection will spread eastward across the area from the southwest through the day along the surface front across southeast GA and along the sea breezes across northeast Florida into the afternoon, with convection ongoing into the evening along the surface front as it settles southward toward northeast Florida. By Sunday, the surface front is expected to be near the Fl-Ga state-line, trailed by a drier and more stable northwest flow across southeast GA with less than 10% chance of rain Sunday while enough moisture lingers south of the front across northeast FL to continue isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances into the afternoon along a dominant west coast sea breeze. Isolated strong to briefly severe storms will be possible both Saturday and Sunday with cooler temperatures aloft and some lift under weak PVA. Heat indices will trend lower this weekend compared to earlier in the week thanks to more clouds cover and storminess on Saturday and then drier air filtering in across southeast GA Sunday. Saturday highs will top out in the low to mid 90s and then Sunday highs warm back into the upper 90s for southeast GA north of the front. Heat index values will hover around 105 for most locations each day, but there will be periods of 105-109 deg in cloud breaks especially toward the coast. Confidence not high enough for prolonged enough duration of heat advisory for Saturday at this time. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Main Highlights This Period (Monday through Thursday): - Hot and Drier Monday - Storminess Returns Tuesday The broader pattern will keep an initially drier northwesterly flow across the region Monday limiting rain chances Monday to mainly northeast Florida. Deeper moisture returns by Tuesday with increasing rain chances as another mid level trough axis begins to deepen down across the southeast region with a return of more scattered afternoon and evening storms under a prevailing west coast sea breeze regime as surface fronts nose southward across GA toward the end of the week. The hottest day will be Monday as a dry airmass heats up in to the mid/upper 90s. Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the week with highs generally in the low 90s Tuesday onward with heat index values generally below local heat advisory criteria at this time. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Showers and storms will linger in the vicinity of the NE FL TAF sites this evening with storms affecting SSI through 03Z. Have TEMPO for stronger storms for SSI where winds could gust to 25 kts and lower conditions to MVFR/IFR. VFR conditions then return overnight with low chances of fog for Saturday morning/sunrise at VQQ and GNV. Scattered showers and storms then develop Saturday afternoon mainly after 18Z. SSW winds this evening become light and variable overnight. SW winds at 5-10 kts develop across the TAF sites after 14Z. && .MARINE... A frontal zone will extend across the Carolinas and into Georgia this period, with a high pressure ridge to the southeast. Rounds of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms can be expected each day. Brief southerly wind surges are expected during the late afternoon and evening hours, but are expected to remain below Small Craft Exercise Caution levels through the period. The cold front will push into the local waters Sunday night into Monday and then stall into mid-week. Rip Currents: Offshore winds will prevail throughout the morning hours, along with low surf heights, during the next several days. With the outgoing tide occurring later in the afternoon, the overall risk will be low today and low to low end moderate this weekend as an afternoon seabreeze brings light south to southeast winds to the beaches. Surf/breakers will remain 1-2 feet or less. && .FIRE WEATHER... Unsettled weather will continue through Saturday with waves of showers and storms across the area with a front approaching today and lingering across the area tomorrow. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible, mainly during the afternoon and evenings capable of strong wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Prevailing southwest winds today and Saturday become more northwest across southeast Georgia on Sunday as the front stalls across northeast Florida. The drier northwest flow will bring lower humidity and mostly dry weather to southeast Georgia Sunday with minimum humidity between 35-40% while scattered to isolated afternoon showers and storms impact northeast Florida where higher moisture will continue. Hotter temperatures on Sunday will bring higher dispersion to areas near the Altamaha River basin while dispersion in the Good range prevails for most other locations. && .CLIMATE... Near record high temperatures are possible at some of our designated climate sites during the next few days: Friday, August 21: KJAX: 101/1900 KGNV: 99/1983 KAMG: 100/1980 KCRG: 99/2016 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 72 94 73 96 / 80 60 20 0 SSI 75 93 75 95 / 60 50 30 10 JAX 74 94 73 94 / 30 40 20 20 SGJ 75 94 75 93 / 20 40 20 20 GNV 73 92 73 93 / 20 30 10 30 OCF 73 92 74 91 / 10 30 20 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$  749 FXUS61 KCLE 212339 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 739 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Forecast remains on track. Low chance for precipitation in NW OH late this evening with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected Saturday afternoon and evening with a low end severe threat. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms expected late tonight and, with greater coverage, Saturday afternoon and evening with a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe weather. 2) Lingering showers in NE OH and NW PA likely Sunday through Monday with below average temperatures expected across the region. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure continues to build off to into Eastern Canada through the end of the today as a surface low pressure system enters the Western Great Lakes. This system will bring widespread precipitation and severe weather potential to the region Saturday afternoon into the evening. Ahead of this system, a shortwave is expected to move through the Southern Great Lakes that will generate some low end potential for showers and thunderstorms mainly for Western and North Central Ohio. Through the early morning there may be some lingering showers across Western Ohio that will be dissipating as the move eastward into the mid morning hours. This could inhibit the overall severe weather threat later in the afternoon and evening depending on how quickly the showers dissipate and cloud cover clears. Ahead of the surface cold front, there will be a pre-frontal that will move through the region and be the support for severe weather to develop off of. Models have been in decent agreement of the timing of storms starting in North Central Ohio in the late afternoon and moving eastward through the late evening. There will be decent instability in the form of around 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with low level lapse rates of 7.0-7.5 C/km. Though, the limited amount of shear will be a limiting factor for severe weather potential as there will be around 20-30 knots of bulk shear. The main threats for this system will be damaging winds within downbursts with a secondary threat of large hail possible. The cold front will pass through late Saturday evening into early Sunday morning, though with the atmosphere being worked over with the pre-frontal trough, severe weather is not expected with the passage. Overall precipitation accumulation has remained on track with previous forecast runs with between 0.25" and 0.75" expected, with the higher end amounts across Northeastern Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania. Flash flooding potential is on the lower end for this system, though a quick inch or two of rain is possible in the stronger storms that could bring some nuisance flooding. Overall, the severe weather threat and widespread precipitation is expected to end before daybreak on Sunday. KEY MESSAGE 2... Behind the cold front passage early Sunday morning there will be a lingering trough that sets up across Eastern Lake Erie that persists through Monday. A much cooler Canadian high pressure will begin to build into the Western Great Lakes on Sunday as well that will usher in unseasonably cooler temperatures. With the lake relatively warm still, lake effect showers are likely across the primary snowbelt region. Showers will persist through Monday with chances decreasing into Tuesday as upper level ridge builds in to the Ohio Valley that will shift flow across Lake Erie to be more westerly than northwesterly. Temperatures as a result of the Canadian high pressure building in will drop to be below average for Sunday and Monday before beginning to rebound Tuesday. Highs across the region on Sunday will be in the upper 60s in Northwest Pennsylvania to the mid 70s in Northwestern Ohio. Monday, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler before everyone warms back up into the mid 70s on Tuesday. Overnight lows will be down into the mid to low 50s Sunday and Monday before they rise back up to near normal. && .AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... Primarily VFR conditions are expected to start this TAF period before a cold front approaches on Saturday and bring the chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some MVFR ceilings may creep into the far western terminals Saturday morning, but as mixing increases with heating these should lift. Then as showers progress east beginning late morning/early afternoon, locally heavy rainfall may reduce visibilities to MVFR, possibly IFR, at times. Best chance for thunderstorms will be during the afternoon and evening hours on Saturday when peak heating occurs. Light and variable winds overnight will become southwest at 5-10 knots Saturday morning. These winds will begin to shift to northwesterly behind the cold front during the afternoon/evening hours for western terminals with gusts up to 20 knots possible. Outlook...Non-VFR conditions should continue Saturday night through early Monday in lake enhanced showers and storms across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. && .MARINE... Onshore flow out of the northeast ends this evening, turning offshore tonight less than 10kts and wave heights coming down below 1ft. A cold front approaches Saturday with increasing storm chances, and passage across the lake expected in the evening. Winds become northwesterly 15-25kts through Sunday night with wave heights climbing to 3-6ft and will likely need a Small Craft Advisory for the central and eastern basins. With this being a cooler airmass over the warmer lake, waterspouts could become an issue during this same time frame. Winds ease and become offshore midweek, bringing wave heights down. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...23 AVIATION...04 MARINE...26  731 FXUS62 KGSP 212339 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 739 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... PoP trends updated based on radar and latest forecast guidance. The aviation forecast was updated for the 00Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Second round of convection moving out of the mountains this evening. A few storms may be severe, producing damaging wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall, and isolated flash flooding. 2. Drier weather returns Sunday through early next week, with afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances returning by midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Second round of convection moving out of the mountains this evening. A few storms may be severe, producing damaging wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall, and isolated flash flooding. The first round of convection has moved east of the area but another round has developed and will move out of the mountains into the foothills and Piedmont through the evening. Instability and DCAPE will linger early this evening, so a strong to severe storm can't be ruled out. The storms are showing decent speed to the southeast; however, they are very efficient rainfall producers. Therefore, some heavy rainfall and isolated flooding remains possible. Expect the bulk of the convection to move east of the area before midnight, but isolated showers may linger behind the stronger convection. Regardless of the exact locations and timing of convection, always remember to have multiple ways to get a warning. If you are outdoors and hear thunder or see lightning, seek shelter and never drive through flooded roadways. Key message 2: Drier weather returns Sunday through early next week, with afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances returning by midweek. Behind the front, drier and somewhat cooler air moves into the area by Sunday, shunting rain chances for a a few days. As a surface high migrates eastward over the Midwest and into the northeast portion of the country, reduced moisture and air from the north contribute to a welcomed break in heat as temperatures look to dip into the 80s for most of the area through the end the forecast period. As the high moves offshore by midweek, moisture slowly starts to return and increases rain chances once again. Mostly expecting the typical summertime afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity to resume. Overall, calmer and slightly cooler weather ahead. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Second round of convection moving out of the mountains and into the foothills and piedmont at this time. It has cleared KAVL, although a shower is possible through early evening, and is on the doorstep of KHKY/KGSP/KGMU. Have short TEMPOs there. The convection may reach KCLT so PROB30 continues there. Least chance at KAND, so no TSRA mention for now. Guidance still insistent on MVFR then IFR cigs developing overnight. They also suggest mainly MVFR vsby, with IFR to LIFR at KAVL/KHKY. Show all of this in the TAFs. Slow improvement after daybreak with VFR all areas by 17Z. Only isolated convection expected Saturday, so no mention at this time. Southeasterly wind this evening becomes light and variable overnight, then light SW, NNW at KAVL, on Saturday. Outlook: No significant chance of convection until Wednesday. Mountain valley fog and low stratus is possible each morning. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ CP/RWH  701 FXUS63 KFSD 212338 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 638 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few showers and weak thunderstorms possible near and north of Highway-14 through sunset. Low chances (less than 20%) for showers and storms into tonight along and south of the Missouri River. Severe weather risk is low. - Slightly cooler weather for the weekend. Saturday should remain dry with rain chances (40-70%) returning to portions of the area by Sunday morning. Rainfall amounts could exceed a tenth of an inch. - Additional chances for rain, and potentially strong to severe thunderstorms (5-15%), are possible through next week. Details are uncertain, so continue to check the latest forecast for the most up to date information. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Quiet conditions persist this afternoon as temperatures have warmed to the 70s and 80s across the area. Quiet conditions are expected to continue for the rest of the day as the cold front has fully pushed through the area. This will keep storm chances south and west of the forecast area. Can't rule out the low possibility (less than 20%) of a shower or weak storm passing along and south of the Missouri River this afternoon, evening, and potentially into the overnight hours. Should this occur, the chance for a severe storm is low. Surface ridging will begin to slide into the forecast area tonight, resulting in light and variable winds with lows falling to the upper 50s to low 60s. Patchy fog is again on the table but with drier air in place, think that any fog that does develop will once again be tied to a few river valley's. Saturday begins the weekend on the quiet side as high pressure pushes through the Northern Plains. High temperatures will be a bit cooler in the upper 70s to low to mid 80s, with a continuation of light northerly winds. This will make for a wonderful Saturday, perfect for outdoor activities! Rain chances will increase late Saturday night through Sunday as a weak shortwave trough rounds the top of a building upper level ridge. This will result in increasing chances for rain across the area for the day on Sunday. Cloud cover with the associated chances for rain will keep high temperatures a bit cooler in the upper 70s to low 80s. While some showers are possible during the morning timeframe, the highest chances for rain will come Sunday evening and night as the main shortwave pushes through the area. The ensembles show a broad 40-70% chance for rainfall totals to exceed a tenth of an inch. Soundings show some elevated instability in place so thunderstorms are possible, though severe storms are not expected at this time due to weak shear profiles. With non-severe storms on the table, rainfall amounts could be locally higher depending on how storms track. An active pattern continues aloft for next week. Medium range guidance shows shortwave troughs continuing to push through the Northern Plains within the northwest flow regime. This will lead to chances for rain almost every day next week. However, the ensembles show a large variance in rainfall probabilities due to the differences in these upper level features. Latest machine learning (ML) guidance does show low probabilities (5-15%) for severe weather throughout the week. Details for severe weather remains uncertain so continue to check the forecast for the most up to date information. Aside from rain and storm chances, high temperatures look to remain in the upper 70s and 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR conditions expected through the period. A few showers and a thunderstorm or two is moving towards the Highway 14 corridor early this evening, but should generally weaken as it moves southward. Very small chance (<20%) of a shower or a stronger storm for the Missouri River Valley and points south through tonight. No impacts expected to the TAF sites. Winds will be generally light and variable through the period, though winds could pick up from time to time out of the north-northeast around 5-10 kts during the day Saturday. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Meyers AVIATION...Samet  729 FXUS64 KFWD 212339 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 639 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures near or over 100 degrees will continue through next week. An Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory remain in effect for portions of North and Central Texas through Saturday evening. - Isolated thunderstorms are possible Saturday, and a few could be strong with gusty winds. However, most areas will remain rain-free into next week. - Hot temperatures and low humidity will contribute to increased wildfire starts through the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 629 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Most of North and Central Texas have remained rain-free, outside of a few showers around the Hamilton area late this afternoon. The earlier outflow boundary remains draped just south of the I-20 corridor, but with sunset fast approaching, no additional convective attempts are anticipated. We have confined the rest of this evening's PoPs to east of I-35 in Central and East Texas (generally south of a Canton-Corsicana-Marlin curve) as ongoing convection to our east may try to skirt into our far southeastern zones over the next hour or two. Additionally, have lowered PoPs in our northeast overnight as subsident air and little in the way of lift will keep things relatively dry until near daybreak when we see a subtle shortwave approach the Red River. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tonight) Issued at 208 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 It's another hot August day across North and Central Texas with current temperatures in the 90s to lower 100s and dewpoints in the 60s. Forecast has been complicated by overnight storms across Oklahoma, which sent an outflow boundary southwestward across North Texas that currently extends from Jacksboro to Fort Worth to north of Athens. Clouds and cooler air behind the outflow has lowered temperatures quite a bit - mainly in our northeast counties which were removed from the Extreme Heat Warning and replaced with a Heat Advisory for today. Locations further south towards the I-20 corridor including the Metroplex will still see ample sunshine and high heat index values, so not making any changes to those hazards attm. As far as rain chances, morning showers/storms have mostly dissipated. Satellite imagery shows cumulus clouds developing ahead of the outflow boundary from the southern Metroplex eastward into East Texas, and some isolated showers and storms may develop this afternoon/evening east of I-35E and south of I-20 where low pops are warranted. Given the hot and dry inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, strong winds are possible with any storms that do develop this afternoon/evening. For tonight, earlier CAM and model runs were showing potential for some showers and storms in our north/northeast counties but have backed off in recent runs. Will keep low pops across our north for now but note these are highly uncertain. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 208 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Forecast for Saturday is also of lower than usual confidence as model guidance has been showing varying solutions from run to run. In general, another hot day is anticipated due to the large upper level ridge over the Four Corners shifting eastward towards the Texas Panhandle. Highs will once again be well into the 100s for most of North and Central Texas, and have extended the Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory through tomorrow accordingly. However, our region will remain in northerly flow on the east side of the upper ridge, and several models show a weak shortwave moving southward out of Oklahoma across our forecast area during the afternoon/evening. This could allow for some widely scatteredshowers and thunderstorms to develop across North Texas in the afternoon that would move southward into Central Texas during the evening. Therefore have expanded low pops across the entire CWA for tomorrow. Dependent on if/when any showers/storms do form on Saturday, this may create havoc with high temperatures and associated heat headlines. Once again, a very hot and dry troposphere would allow for any storms that do develop to produce strong gusty winds. From Sunday through Tuesday, 12Z guidance shows the H5 ridge building/shifted eastward closer to North and Central Texas, which should shut off any precip chances will heating us up a notch. In fact, one or more of these days could be the hottest of the summer as highs get close to the 110 mark. By Wednesday through the remainder of next week, the upper ridge begins to weaken somewhat while shifting back to the west, allowing for stronger northerly flow aloft across our region. This pattern shift will lower our high temperatures several degrees, while also allowing for low rain chances each day, especially our east half. Even so, it will still be hot and dry with highs in the upper 90s and 100s as we get closer to the end of August. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 629 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 D10: ESE winds will prevail for the next several hours at D10, before returning to more SE flow for the rest of the night. However, around 15Z, winds will veer more W-SW for much of the morning before settling out of the SE the rest of the period. While the overall flow will be out of the SE, low chances for storms around the region may cause erratic and variable wind directions during the late afternoon and evening. There is still uncertainty with timing and location of the convection and wind shifts, so will keep that out of the written TAF for now until better confidence and model alignment occurs. ACT: SE winds will persist until mid-morning before veering more WSW around 14Z. These WSW winds will linger through the morning before returning to a SE flow the rest of the period. Similar to the D10 discussion above, there is a low potential for late afternoon/evening storm development near the airport. This may result in impacts to the airport, like a temporary period of variable winds. This scenario has low confidence and will not be included in the TAF at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 97 82 106 83 / 10 10 10 20 Waco 104 80 104 81 / 10 10 10 10 Paris 101 77 102 76 / 20 20 20 20 Denton 99 81 106 80 / 10 10 10 20 McKinney 98 79 104 79 / 10 10 10 20 Dallas 99 82 107 83 / 10 10 10 10 Terrell 101 78 105 79 / 20 10 10 10 Corsicana 100 80 104 80 / 10 20 10 10 Temple 103 79 105 79 / 10 10 0 10 Mineral Wells 104 77 108 78 / 10 10 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ091-092- 100>104-115>121-131>134. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ093>095-106-129-135- 141>148-156>162-174-175. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ105-107- 122-123. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ105-107-122-123. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ130. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ130. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION...Prater  698 FXUS66 KSGX 212338 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 438 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Monsoonal moisture will decrease into the weekend with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for the mountains and high desert for this afternoon. Above average high and low temperatures will continue through next week. Widespread moderate to locally major HeatRisk for the coast, valleys, and mountains except near the beaches and for the higher elevations in the mountains, with major to extreme HeatRisk for the lower deserts. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... Outside of a few passing high clouds, most of the region is experiencing sunshine this afternoon. Cumulus clouds over San Gorgonio mountain have grown into showers and a thunderstorm. PWAT values in this mornings sounding have actually increased a bit from yesterday and thus there is still an outside (10%) chance for shower development where cumulus have already developed over the Peninsular Range later this afternoon. As of 1 PM, about 50% of temperature observations read 100F or above through the Inland Empire with readings approaching 100F through the interior and foothill valleys of San Diego County. Temperatures near the coast remain closer to average with more comfortable mid 70s across the San Diego County Coast and low 80s across the Orange County coast. This morning's marine layer was slow to develop and quite shallow - around 1000 feet deep with patchy cloud cover and locally lower visibilities in the valleys surrounding the I-15 corridor. This pattern should continue in the coming days as the ridge continues to squash the boundary layer. Long range models are in solid agreement about keeping the upper level ridge strong and centered over the Desert Southwest for at least the next week, despite the jet stream flowing north of it across the Northwest. As a result, model guidance is foresting temperatures consistently 5 to 10 degrees above average across Southern California through the forecast period with little day-to- day change. Given we are in an already hot time of year, impacts from prolonged above normal heat will be more widespread. Most inland areas will experience moderate HeatRisk through next week with some areas of Major HeatRisk. The lower deserts will experience persistent Major HeatRisk through next week with temperatures forecast 110-115F everyday of the forecast period and low temperatures struggling to fall below 90F in some places. Despite the favorable positioning of the ridge, thunderstorm chances are limited this weekend and increasingly less impressive next week with less moisture in store. Chances are subject to change however, especially next week, as the mid-level flow remains generally southerly with the upper level high pressure spinning to the east. The Extreme Heat Warning continues for the lower deserts through next Friday and a Heat Advisory is now in place for the inland valleys and mountains (below 6000 feet in San Bernardino County) from Saturday morning through Monday evening. Take breaks in the shade, hydrate and seek A/C when possible! && .AVIATION... 212330Z...Coast...A few clouds have been lingering in and out along the coast around 5,000ft MSL and SCT high clouds AOA 20,000ft MSL. Expecting patchy low clouds to begin forming after 08Z along the coast, with a 30-40% chance of cigs near 400-900 ft MSL impacting coastal SD County TAF sites between 10-15Z. Low clouds scatter out 15-16Z. Otherwise...FEW to SCT clouds above 20 kft MSL through the TAF period. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expectedthrough Tuesday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 8 PM PDT Monday for Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains- San Diego County Valleys-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for Coachella Valley- San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Westerink AVIATION/MARINE...Villafane  762 FXUS61 KOKX 212339 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 739 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Aviation discussion for 00z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unsettled conditions persist this weekend, with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms at times. 2) Drying out early next week, with temperatures remaining slightly below normal. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Broad troughing remains across Great Lakes and Northeast, with a nearly stalled boundary and area of low pressure meandering just offshore. The center of the nearby low pressure is very evident on GOES-19 visible satellite imagery this afternoon, spinning about 90 mi SSE of Montauk in the western Atlantic. Cloud canopy is swirling around it, with overcast skies persisting across Long Island and much of S CT today, but much brighter skies from NYC on north and west. The center should continue meandering slowly eastward, bringing an end to and remaining light rain or drizzle by early this evening, before another wave approaches from the southwest on Saturday. A few morning showers could clip some coastal locations, before a lull then develops most of Saturday. Broad forcing for ascent from the trough, along with the shortwave energy moving through should help to instigate additional showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms by late Saturday evening. Instability looks relatively limited, but moisture will be abundant, with PWATs along the coast increasing toward 2 inches. WPC has maintained a marginal risk of excessive rainfall across the entire local area, and given the recent rains, it won't take much to renew any nuisance flooding in the urbanized and poor drainage areas. The threat for flash flooding will likely be contingent on training of heavier cells, which is a possibility overnight into Sunday morning. Peak hourly rainfall rates could approach an inch to an inch and a half, with localized totals up to a few inches. Coverage and severity of this activity appears lower in general than Thursday's event however, and opted not to hoist a Flood Watch at this point. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Cyclonic flow with afternoon stratocu likely persists through early next week as the trough axis remains across the Northeast. The trough gradually exits into midweek as the flow aloft transitions to more quasi zonal. Absent any isolated diurnal showers, conditions largely remain dry as high pressure builds in and winds become westerly. Temperatures are forecast to remain slightly below normal, with daytime highs in the 70s to around 80. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low pressure continues to slowly move away from the terminals tonight. A wave of low pressure approaches on Saturday. VFR through tonight, excluding KGON where MVFR cigs likely move in late tonight. MVFR cigs then expected to move back in mid Saturday morning, and could be borderline VFR/MVFR by late Saturday afternoon. Potential for -RA Saturday, but vsbys may end up staying VFR through that period. Light winds tonight VRB or NE. E/SE winds under 10kt for Saturday. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... AMD possible Saturday with borderline VFR/MVFR cigs. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Saturday Night: Showers and potential thunderstorms. MVFR to IFR. Sunday: A chance of showers, especially north of the city terminals. Possible thunderstorms. Chance of MVFR or lower at times. Monday through Wednesday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory remains on the ocean waters west of Fire Island Inlet until 8pm with seas near or just above 5 ft and a few gusts around 25 kt. Conditions gradually improve into this evening. Thereafter, expect sub-SCA conditions to persist through early next week as a weak pressure gradient settles in over the local waters. Rip Currents: The rip current risk remains moderate for the ocean beaches both for the rest of today as well as for both Saturday and Sunday with a prevailing SE swell. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350- 353. && $$ DISCUSSION...DR AVIATION...JT MARINE...DR  789 FXUS63 KSGF 212340 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 640 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will range from the upper 80s northeast of Springfield to the 90s elsewhere this weekend into next week. Heat indicies in the upper 90s to around 100 southwest of Springfield. - Marginal risk for severe storms west of Springfield Saturday morning. 20-50% chance of showers and storms Saturday morning and again Sunday night generally along and west of Highway 65. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis still shows the region in a northwest flow aloft with the upper level high west of the area across the Rockies. A surface front remains across the Red River Valley with variable winds across the area. 12z KSGF sounding continues to show some drier air aloft with a PW value around 1.16in. Other than some high cirrus clouds, skies were mostly sunny early this afternoon. Temps in central Missouri have warmed into the middle 80s with upper 80s to lower 90s. Shower and Storms Saturday Morning: An upper level disturbance will slide southeast through the Dakotas and into Nebraska this evening. At the same time, a low level jet will increase from Kansas into southern Nebraska allowing for a cluster of showers and thunderstorms to form. A 2000j/kg MU CAPE corridor looks to set up from central and eastern Kansas into northeast Oklahoma and far southwest Missouri. Mean wind vectors all point to this cluster of storms moving southeast through the instability corridor and towards the western portions of the area after 3am, most likely closer to sunrise Saturday. 30kts of 0-6km shear may allow for enough storm organization for a marginal risk of a severe storm with damaging winds however given the time of day we are not expecting very many, if any severe storms. This cluster of storms looks to then progress south/southeast through southwest Missouri during to mid to late morning hours, exiting the area by the afternoon. We have used the latest short term model guidance to increase precip chances closer to 40 percent for Saturday morning for locations west of Highway 65. If trends continue, we will likely have to increase these chances even further. The drier air across the eastern ozarks will likely be a factor as to how far east storms make it. The increased precip chances and morning clouds will likely keep temps down and have trended towards high temps perhaps reaching the low 90s by late afternoon. Cloud cover will be critical to the determination of final high temps Saturday afternoon. Precip chances then drop below 10 percent for Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Additional Precip Chances Sunday Night: Sunday looks mainly dry with highs in the 80s northeast of Springfield to the 90s elsewhere. Another shortwave looks to slide southeast through the flow into the area late Sunday night. Another cluster of showers and storms looks to form somewhere in eastern Kansas and move southeast towards the area. Plenty of uncertainty remains as to this cluster of storms and expect additional updates. Precip chances beyond Sunday night are currently less than 20 percent however given this current pattern, additional time periods may see chances increase. Continued Hot Temperatures: Outside of any precip chances, mean 850mb temps in the lower 20s Celsius along with increasing drought (D0 and D1 are expanding per latest Drought Monitor) should allow for highs to reach the 90s across most of the area this weekend into early next week. Locations west of Springfield will be the hottest with highs in the upper 90s to around 100. The latest CPC outlook for late August into early September favors above normal temperatures continuing. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Calm, 3-6 kt winds are expected through 15Z, beginning from the north, and gradually shifting clockwise to southeasterly. During this period, high cirrostratus clouds will overspread the TAF sites as dissipating storms enter from the north. After 15Z, there is a low-end (20-40% chance) for showers and thunderstorms from 15-21Z. With the current pattern, confidence is quite low and there may be changes in exact timing in the best chance of precipitation potentially impacting a TAF site. At the moment, these chances come with an uptick in northerly winds up to 8-12 kts through the rest of the TAF period. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Price  803 FXUS64 KTSA 212340 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 640 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1213 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Pattern into early next week will maintain daily shower and thunderstorm chances with hot temperatures outside of widespread rain influences. - Uncertainty will remain high with regard to thunderstorm complexes and their development and eventual track. - Heat stress remains a concern along with localized fire weather concerns. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Morning MCS continues to influence the regional conditions with persistent convection along and west of Highway 75 and widespread cloud cover helping hold temperatures down further east. This pattern will likely persist long enough to reduce the afternoon heat stress conditions and portions of the ongoing heat advisory have already been cancelled with further adjustments likely pending afternoon trends. Any remnant convection likely wanes by early evening with focus then turning toward the late night into Saturday time frame. Convection ongoing across NE marks the stronger mid level jet that will spread SE overnight into the day Saturday and the associated lift along and north of the remnant convective outflow will likely foster another round of widespread showers and storms. How exactly this scenario evolves differs amongst short term guidance, but the idea will be for increase storm chances overnight and into the day Saturday. Should an organized MCS develop, as suggested by some guidance, then a risk of severe weather will spread across portions of the forecast area. The forecast will trend toward a more convectively influenced scenario through Saturday with an increase in precip chances and a decrease in forecast temperatures. Should less precip develop or track away from the local region then heat advisory levels will be more likely Saturday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1153 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 The more amplified western ridge axis will maintain seasonably strong northwesterly flow in or near the forecast area through Monday with potential MCS influences again Saturday night into Sunday. The ridge does flatten somewhat by early next week the resultant steering flow may become slightly less favorable for storms spreading into the region, and by late next week the ridge likely becomes more centered over the region which would favor a return to hot and dry. So the near term forecast uncertainty will hopefully lead to some beneficial rains to portions of the area but a prolonged break from the above normal temperatures is not readily apparent. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Few to broken high clouds are anticipated into the overnight hours before increasing mid and high clouds develop late tonight into Saturday. During the day Saturday scattered to overcast mid and high clouds are forecast with the potential for a MCS to drop south/southeast through the CWA. Uncertainties remain with timing, thus will continue Prob30 groups for general timing of greater potential. Also, there remains a low potential for storms early morning Saturday for parts of northeast Oklahoma. Will also hold onto a Prob30 window for this activity as well, though the greater potential is with the MCS. Within any convection, brief heavy rains, strong wind gusts and possibly brief MVFR conditions could develop. Behind the exiting MCS, cloud cover looks to become more scattered high clouds. Winds through the period remain light/variable outside of the convection. Also, VFR conditions are forecast outside of any convection. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 75 98 75 96 / 3040 10 10 FSM 75 99 74 98 / 20 40 20 10 MLC 75 103 74 102 / 20 40 20 0 BVO 70 95 70 94 / 30 30 10 10 FYV 72 96 69 94 / 30 50 20 10 BYV 73 96 69 92 / 30 50 20 10 MKO 72 96 72 96 / 30 50 20 10 MIO 73 95 72 94 / 30 50 10 10 F10 73 99 72 98 / 30 30 10 10 HHW 75 103 75 101 / 20 40 20 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>057-059>062- 064-066>068-070-071-074-154-172-176-254-272-276-354. AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...20  835 FXUS65 KGJT 212341 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 541 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered storms capable of producing gusty outflow winds and lightning will develop over the high terrain on today. - Thunderstorm coverage increases this weekend with monsoonal moisture moving in. Flash flooding will be possible, especially Saturday. - Temperatures remain 5-10 degrees above normal through the seven-day forecast, with today looking to be the warmest day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1149 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 HOT WITH MOUNTAIN STORMS TODAY: High pressure centered directly over our region will keep high temperatures hot today, with highs around 10 to 15 degrees above normal expected. The center of high pressure will gradually shift to our southeast, eventually shifting flow over our area to more southwesterly, which will support stronger moisture advection into our region. Today showers and thunderstorms will favor the high terrain, with the greatest chances and expected rainfall amounts favoring the southern Colorado mountains. The primary concerns with showers and thunderstorms today are gusty outflow winds up to 35 mph, lightning, and periods of heavier rainfall. Heavier rainfall could cause localized flash flooding over burn scars and susceptible terrain. COOLER WITH WET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND: Southwesterly flow will allow for moisture to increase across our region this weekend, with PWATs peaking around 150% of normal. This will lead to more widespread precipitation chances. Storms are still expected to favor the high terrain areas, but valley areas could see a few storms as they move off of the terrain. A shortwave moving through will provide additional lift while atmospheric moisture is elevated on Saturday, meaning stronger thunderstorms with heavier rainfall are possible, which subsequently increases flash flooding and debris flow concerns. Convection continues on Sunday while the increased atmospheric moisture remains in place, but PoPs decrease and more strongly favor the high terrain as no additional lift from synoptic forcing is expected. Flash flooding concerns over burn scars and susceptible terrain persists through at least Sunday. Moisture looks to decrease but still remain above normal after Sunday, which will keep afternoon mountain showers and thunderstorms in the forecast daily. High temperatures cool by about 5 degrees between today and Saturday. Despite the drop in temperatures, highs will still be around 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of the year. Highs will remain around 5 to 10 degrees above normal through early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 519 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR conditions will likely prevail through the TAF period. Some light rain showers are still ongoing this evening, but will begin to gradually diminish after ~01Z. Gusty outflows have already been observed this evening at some terminals and continue to be a threat with decaying storms. Winds will resume a light and terrain driven pattern by the overnight hours. Saturday will see shower and storm chances beginning around 18/19Z at most terminals. Localized heavy rainfall is possible with storm activity which could have an impact on visibility at certain terminals. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TGJT AVIATION...TGJT  903 FXUS65 KPUB 212342 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 542 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Monsoon moisture strengthens slightly through most of next week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms over the region. - Flooding and flash flooding will be possible each day over the Aspen Acres and 24 burn scars, urban areas, and over regions with saturated soils. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 211 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Thunderstorm coverage will continue to be more isolated late this afternoon and evening. The primary risks will be gusty outflow winds of up to 40 MPH - so keep an eye out for virga which would be an indicator of strong winds. Underneath the core of the thunderstorm will be locally heavy rainfall. At this point in time, there is no hail in the forecast. As for flash flooding risks this afternoon, it is fairly low - one cannot rule out an isolated storm that develops over the burn scar in which we'll have to issue a Flash Flood Warning, but the chances are low (<20%). Overnight low temperatures will be in the low 60s across the plains and the 50s over mountain valleys. The stronger monsoonal tap returns once again tomorrow as the upper level high pressure center building today compresses allowing a westerly moist flow reach Colorado. The main question is if to issue a Flash Flood Watch for tomorrow for the Aspen Acres Burn Scar. I cannot say right now with 50% certainty or higher that the burn scar will have a flash flood tomorrow, therefore I will hold off on the Watch for this forecast cycle. Check back with the overnight crew. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 60s across the plains and in the upper 80s to low 90s over the mountain valleys. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 211 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Monsoon moisture will be present throughout most of the week. Sunday afternoon and evening has the strongest flooding signal for the Aspen Acres burn scar with enough confidence for thunderstorm development further south across the region. The 500hPa high is compressed enough in response to a wave passing to the north of the high to allow these storms to develop. So keep an eye out for a Flash Flood Watch for Sunday afternoon. Monday through Wednesday has a lot of similarities, however. The high is centered south of Colorado and allows that monsoonal moisture over the west to advect over southern Colorado, so there will be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms over our mountains, mountain valleys, and plains. We'll need to be on higher alert for flooding and flash flooding over urban areas, regions with saturated soils, and over our burn scars, including the Aspen Acres burn scar. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 541 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR conditions are expected across much of the forecast area over the next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Maintained mention of VCSH for TAF sites through 02z, with a PROB30 for -TSRA at KALS through 02z. Brought in VCTS for KALS and KCOS starting around 19z-20z tomorrow, while KPUB will likely see developing convection beyond forecast period. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SKELLY LONG TERM...SKELLY AVIATION...MOORE  007 FXUS63 KLBF 212344 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 644 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible late tonight - Moderate to heavy rainfall may be possible with storms tonight, with the potential for flooding - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms into early next week && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 341 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 The main concern for the remainder of this afternoon into tonight will generally be the chance for scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon hours. Expect there to be a lull in thunderstorms early to mid evening, then as a disturbance moves into the area could see thunderstorms redevelop this evening. Convection that develops tonight is generally expected after 9pm CT. Storms that develop tonight will likely be elevated in nature so the main threats would be large hail and damaging wind gusts. There will be a secondary threat of moderate to heavy rainfall as well with the potential for storms to train over the same area. Confidence in overnight convection is medium, as there still remains some uncertainty on how much the environment is able to destabilize tonight and if there will be enough forcing. If storms form however, generally expect most of the storm development to move out of the area before sunrise. The greatest area of concern will generally be along and east of HWY 83 and north of interstate 80. Heavy rain potential overnight, although storm movement will be moderate, some of the CAMs have been hinting at the possibility of storms training over the same location, near the boundary. PWAT values overnight will be around 1.25 to 1.75 inches. Depending where storms set up there may be the potential for flooding issues. Although the Sandhills can usually intake a lot of rainfall, rainfall over the same area the last couple days has been near 3 inches in some locations and have seen soil moisture saturation around 50 to 70 percent, so will need to monitor locations across north central into central Nebraska closely. As for Saturday morning, there may be the potential for some patchy fog in the area with light winds and low level moisture from morning convection, but confidence is low at this time. Saturday precipitation potential after early morning convection will remain low and expect Saturday to be mostly dry. There will be some potential for an isolated thunderstorms to develop off the high terrain and move eastward into western/southwest Nebraska Saturday evening, however coverage will remain limited. There will be a greater chance for precipitation late Saturday night into Sunday morning with isolated to scattered convection across western and north central Nebraska. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 341 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Upper level level ridge to the west will keep northwest flow over the High Plains into early next week. There will continue to be an increase of low level moisture advecting into the High Plains through early next week. This combined with disturbances that move over the ridge into the area and will see daily chances for storms into early next week. At this time the threat for organized storms still remains uncertain, with greater confidence in isolated to scattered storm development than widespread storm chances. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 644 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR conditions are expected through most of the forecast period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across the Panhandle and north central Nebraska through the evening tonight where locally gusty winds and MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible in and near any strong storm. Further development of thunderstorms during the late night into early morning hours will spread eastward, possibly impacting both terminals. There remains enough uncertainty of this that only a PROB30 group was introduced. Regardless, both terminals will likely still have showers in the vicinity until sunrise Saturday. Winds will light and variable at 5 to 10 kts until Saturday afternoon where winds will firmly be east southeast at 5 to 10 kts. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gomez LONG TERM...Gomez AVIATION...MRS  027 FXUS63 KMKX 212344 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 644 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storm redevelopment (~40-60% chances) ~2-9 PM this afternoon/evening. A few severe storms can't be ruled out, particularly along & west of I-39. - Scattered thunderstorms ~12-7 PM Saturday mainly in east- central and southeast Wisconsin. An isolated stronger storm with gusty winds or hail can't be ruled out. - Dry and pleasant conditions Sunday into the beginning of next week. Storm chances return Tuesday evening into Wednesday. && .UPDATE... Issued 645 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Storms in the region are expected to gradually drift out and weaken over the next few hours as the front slides east and we lose instability into the evening. Could see a few storms still become strong and possibly severe though the risks continue to decrease into this evening. Once storms push out/dissipate this evening expect quiet conditions to return to the area through Saturday morning. Into Saturday afternoon a backdoor cold front in combination with some surface convergence along the lake breeze could bring some additional shower and/or storm development. Chances remain fairly limited and only isolated showers/storms are possible but the focus will be closer to the lake and unlikely to impact any of western WI. Kuroski && .SHORT TERM... Issued 205 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 This Afternoon and Tonight: Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: Early day showers & storms have largely vacated early this afternoon, though activity is lingering along the state line from Janesville east to Kenosha. Activity laid down a deeper outflow boundary, with satellite and surface obs showing the boundary extending from Rockford, IL to Monroe to Lone Rock. Further north, a warm frontal boundary is apparent from Mauston towards the Rhinelander vicinity. The northern warm front & southern outflow boundary form the eastern bound on an unstable warm sector in place over west-central and southwest Wisconsin. This warm sector will attempt to work toward south-central & southeast Wisconsin through the afternoon, allowing the atmosphere to recover for additional storm development as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Some redeveloping storms will have the potential to be severe, with chances being greatest along & west of I-39 where instability will be greatest. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards, though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Stay weather aware through this evening. Conditions will dry out after midnight as the cold front pushes out of the area. This Afternoon & Evening: Complex set up for re-developing thunderstorms will be in place across southern Wisconsin during the ~2-9 PM time frame as a cold front moves in from the west. Anticipating general thunderstorm potential areawide during this window as the front moves in, with all storms capable of producing brief heavy downpours and cloud to ground lightning. Widespread flooding potential is low given expected faster storm motions. Any strong/severe storms will focus over more refined portions of the region getting into the surface warm sector/best instability recoveries. Observational and high-res model trends suggest that this will be along & west of I-39, where a brief window of sunshine will precede the encroaching cold front. Borne out in ongoing activity near La Crosse, modest but sufficient effective shear will be supportive for organized activity (both cells & clusters) capable of damaging winds and some large hail. While directional wind shear is marginal, an isolated tornado can't be ruled out, particularly in discrete cells that interact with any of the surface boundaries. Will be monitoring radar trends closely for any warnings. Stay weather aware this evening, particularly if planning to be outdoors. Quigley && .LONG TERM... Issued 205 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Saturday through Friday: Synopsis: Back side of a passing mid-level wave will linger across the western Great Lakes on Saturday, combining with lift along a back door cold front/lake breeze to support scattered thunderstorm development over mainly east-central & southeast Wisconsin during the afternoon hours. High pressure will move through the western Great Lakes Sunday into the beginning of next week, bringing dry and pleasant conditions Sunday through Tuesday. The next upper disturbance is forecast to swing through the region Tuesday evening into Wednesday, bringing the next chances for showers and thunderstorms. Lingering timing uncertainties of the upper level wave & affiliated surface boundaries make the specifics of any strong/severe storm potential unclear at this time, with trends being monitored in coming forecasts. High pressure will build back into the area by Thursday, resulting in quieter conditions. Saturday: Anticipating diurnal thundershower development between ~12- 7 PM as a combination of warming surface temperatures and cool temperatures aloft lead to modest destabilization. Current expectation is for highest precip chances to focus in east-central & southeast Wisconsin, where lift from a backdoor cold front/lake breeze will provide a focus for convective initiation. Forecast soundings point toward weaker effective shear & thus a less organized storm mode relative to today, but can't entirely rule out an isolated stronger storm with gusty winds or small hail in locations benefiting from full sunshine through the morning/early afternoon hours. Will be monitoring trends. Quigley && .AVIATION... Issued 645 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Storms continue to push out or become more isolated this evening with precipitation clearing by around mid evening. Until then we will continue to monitor for storms to push through the various airports but in large parts things are quieting down to a degree with current storm activity not expected to impact any of the airports at this time though some heavy rain and briefly degraded VSBYs are possible. Late this evening through Saturday morning expect quieter conditions with light to modest northwest winds. Into the afternoon some weak instability and a backdoor cold front with some lake breeze impact could allow for a few isolated weak storms or showers closer to the lake but for the most part much of the region is expected top remain dry. Showers and/or storms may cause brief VSBY degradation but otherwise VFR conditions expected. Kuroski && .MARINE... Issued 205 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 South to southwest winds will increase today as a low pressure trough of 29.8 inches approaches southern Wisconsin from the Minnesota Arrowhead. Ongoing thunderstorms over the far southern open waters will vacate this afternoon, with more storm development possible into this evening. A few storms could be strong with gusty winds, and hail. The aforementioned trough will cross Lake Michigan from north to south tonight and bring a wind shift to the northwest. Then look for gusty northerly winds to develop along a cold front that will track from north to south down Lake Michigan Saturday evening. A few thunderstorms are possible along this front. Northerly winds will persist through Sunday as low pressure around 29.6 inches tracks from Lower Michigan to Ontario. Variable winds are expected for Monday and Tuesday as high pressure of 30.1 inches crosses the Upper Great Lakes. Widespread/prolonged Small Craft Advisory conditions aren't expected through the period in nearshore zones. Will be monitoring for a brief period of advisory conditions next Tuesday, though confidence on the eventual need for headlines is low at this time. Thunderstorms currently moving through the region will clear out by early afternoon, with additional storm development occurring along a cold front this evening. A few of these storms could be strong with gusty winds and hail. Quigley && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  993 FXUS64 KEWX 212344 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 644 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 611 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Heat Advisory in effect form the northern Hill Country, I-35 Corridor, and Coastal Plains Thursday-Sunday. - Brief and isolated storms possible over Central TX Saturday. - August heat wave continues with no significant rain or heat relief in sight. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 An upper level high is centered over the southern Rockies with the ridge extending over Texas where the flow is weakly anticyclonic. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Gulf is producing winds from the south. The airmass over South-Central Texas remains hot and moist with little change in temperatures or dewpoints over the last 24 hours. The upper ridge will continue to dominate through the short term period. We expect very little change to the weather. Although a front will move into north Texas Saturday with convection possible into central Texas. We have continued to show 15%-20% POPs over the northeastern counties Saturday afternoon and early evening. High temperatures might be a degree or two warmer Saturday and a few spots could reach 105 degrees, but we will stick with the Heat Advisory with limited coverage for the highest temperatures. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 The upper ridge will remain over Texas through the long term. We expect only minor changes through the period. Subsidence will prevent any convection through next week. Temperatures may fluctuate a few degrees up or down each day, but generally highs will be around 100 each day for most of the area outside the highest parts of the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau. Models show some better vertical mixing bringing lower dewpoint air to the surface and thus lower heat indices. If this pans out we will not need Heat Advisories. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 611 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR conditions are forecast for the aviation period of 24 to 30 hours. Southerly flow of 10 knots or less are forecast for this evening through Saturday evening. There is a very slight chance for a shower or isolated thunderstorm across the Austin area and vicinity during the late afternoon. As far as AUS goes about this slight chance of showers or a storm or two, probabilities and confidence too low to be included in AUS TAF. We will monitor and make necessary changes accordindly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 80 105 80 105 / 0 20 20 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 79 104 79 104 / 0 20 20 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 77 104 77 103 / 0 10 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 76 104 77 102 / 0 20 20 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 78 105 77 103 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 79 104 80 104 / 0 20 20 0 Hondo Muni Airport 76 103 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 76 103 77 103 / 0 10 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 78 104 78 104 / 0 20 20 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 78 103 78 103 / 0 0 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 78 104 77 104 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ171>173-191>194- 205>209-220>225. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...17  196 FXUS61 KILN 212345 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 745 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected on Saturday as another cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Dry conditions persist through tonight, with some fog development possible again. However, most of the fog will be confined to the river valleys and portions of north-central KY into the Scioto Valley. Heading into Saturday, a shortwave trough will eject through the Ohio Valley, helping to generate scattered showers and storms during the day. Some CAMs do show some isolated showers developing during the mid to late morning hours, but the better chances for convection will be during the afternoon and evening. PWATs still only appear to be reaching the 1.25" to 1.50" range. While brief pockets of heavier showers are possible, cells are expected to be more progressive, limiting any hydro/flooding concerns. SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Saturday. Most CAMs do try to develop moderate instability into our CWA, but model guidance does suggest a fair amount of cloud coverage throughout the day. Effective shear generally remains around 25 kts on the high end, so storm organization will be limited. However, cannot rule out a few rogue storms that have some strong to damaging wind gusts. Large hail also cannot be ruled out with some cooler air aloft and lower freezing levels, but that risk appears to remain isolated as well. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Isolated thunderstorm activity is occurring near DAY at the start of the period. Otherwise, expecting dry conditions until renewed thunderstorm chances arrive with a cold front tomorrow. Until confidence increases, started with PROB30s starting around 15Z for DAY and ending by 22Z for CMH/LCK. The cold front moves west to east across the area changing west-southwesterly winds to northwesterly following the storms. For tonight, mostly clear skies are forecast with some BR expected into Saturday morning. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Clark AVIATION...McGinnis  297 FXUS63 KDLH 212347 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 647 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered rain showers and non-severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening, with the best chance for the Borderlands and MN Arrowhead. - Fairly dry and sunny weekend on tap with lower dewpoints, fairly average temperatures, and a northwest breeze. Sunday morning could be chilly with morning lows in the 40s. - Next chance of precipitation early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1146 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A low pressure system to our north continues to influence our weather today. A second cold front is expected to drop down into the Northland from western Ontario this afternoon and evening bringing a chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. While there is a little bubble of instability ahead and along with this front, shear is somewhat limited around 20-30knots. No severe storms are expected, but a couple stronger storms capable of producing up to penny size hail are possible, especially for the Borderlands and MN Arrowhead. Any precipitation activity should come to an end through the evening and overnight. Into the weekend, an upper level trough is expected to morph into an elongated cut off upper level low over the eastern Great Lakes and eastern Ontario. This will bring northwesterly flow and drier air back into our region. Temperatures should largely be around normal during the day. Lower dewpoints in the 40s and clearing skies could lead to a chilly night Saturday into Sunday morning with overnight lows in the 40s possible - a couple overachieving localized cold spots might see some high 30s again. Global models continue to point towards another upper level trough with a preceding shortwave wandering across the Canadian Plains and into our neck of the woods early next week. This could bring scattered rain chances back to the Northland Monday night into Wednesday. Depending on how these chances play out, areas of the Northland will likely continue to deal with the ongoing drought rigmarole as the best rainfall amounts could be hit or miss. Temperatures stay around average through the extended forecast. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 648 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A broken line of showers and storms ahead of a cold front is pushing southward this evening. It is currently raining at HIB, and expect the line to move through DLH and BRD through 03Z. A wind gust to 20kts could be possible. Not as confident in storms making it to HYR, with activity already showing a weakening trend, but have included a tempo for SHRA from 02-04Z. Behind this line, skies will clear and there could be patchy fog overnight. Guidance is showing a 10-20% chance of vis below 1 mile at DLH and HYR. Will see how winds diminish behind this line, before including fog at DLH. With rain occurring later at HYR, will include MVFR vis there. Gusty northwesterly winds increase Saturday morning, with gusts to 20kts possible. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 1146 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Light westerly winds are expected today and Saturday, with some afternoon gusts of 10-15knots possible. Sunday, expect north to northeasterly winds overnight, becoming an onshore lake breeze in the afternoon. There could be some scattered rain showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon into the evening, but no severe weather is expected. Patchy dense fog is possible overnight tonight into Saturday morning. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1146 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A secondary cold front is expected to pushthrough the area this afternoon and evening. This could bring some scattered showers and thunderstorms as it arrives, most likely for northern MN and the Borderlands. No severe weather is expected, but a couple stronger storms are possible. As that front passes, northwesterly flow and drier air return. Expect afternoon RH on Saturday and Sunday to fall into the 30-45% range, with some locally lower values possible, driest on Sunday. Some gustier post-frontal northwest winds are possible on Saturday with afternoon sustained winds of 8-12mph and gusts of 15-20mph. Winds should be fairly light on Sunday. Moisture should return into Monday/Tuesday as our next chance of rain arrives early next week. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Levens AVIATION...HA MARINE...Levens FIRE WEATHER...Levens  390 FXUS61 KPHI 212349 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 749 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... While the threat for flash flooding on later Saturday and into Sunday remains, it appears to be lesser now. Heavier rains look to be focused on Delmarva and coastal south NJ. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A period of unsettled conditions for Saturday and Saturday night with the possibility for some flooding. Unsettled weather continues through early Sunday. 2. Fair weather is expected to return Monday and should last into the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A period of unsettled conditions for Saturday and Saturday night with the possibility for some flooding. Unsettled weather continues through early Sunday. The upper H5 trough will remain across the East Coast Saturday and Sunday before lifting away and weakening. There are still a few short waves which will move NE across the Middle Atlantic. There are two favored period for the rains, one is Sat. morning and the second Sat evening and early overnight. These waves will bring increased chances for showers and a few tstms thru the period. Higher chances for rains are across Delmarva and south NJ with categorical/likely pops and chance/slight chance pops will be across the N/w areas Saturday. Pops for all areas are in the 50% to 60% range for Saturday evening and then they decrease overnight. Patchy fog will develop overnight. One notable change from yesterday is that the systems appear to be showing the higher QPF totals 'out to sea' . The higher totals are now in the 1.0 to 1.5 inch range and will be across the NJ shore areas. Delmarva may also have some totals around an inch thru that period. A few of the CAMs show that a few isolated spots may have close to 2.0 inch totals. We'll continue to monitor these trends. KEY MESSAGE 2...Fair weather is expected to return Monday and should last into the middle of next week. More zonal flow with some subtle ridging moves in for the first half of the week. At the surface, high pressure will mainly be in control, resulting in dry and tranquil weather through Wednesday. Temperatures should be seasonable through this stretch. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...VFR with high clouds much of the night, but MVFR CIGS arrive across the terminals around dawn (near IFR for MIV/ACY/ILG). Light NE/E winds then mostly variable overnight. High/medium confid. Saturday...MVFR much of the time, but IFR CIGS possible too especially KMIV/KACY closer to the system moving through. Scattered showers expected many sites after 10Z, but prevailing visibility restrictions are not anticipated. Easterly winds 5-10 kts. Medium confid. Outlook... Saturday night through early Sunday...Restrictions likely with scattered showers and thunderstorms moving through at times. Saturday evening into Saturday Night and Sunday afternoon currently are the periods that have the highest chance for rain/thunderstorms. Sunday afternoon through Wednesday...VFR. No significant weather. && .MARINE... Conditions will remain below SCA levels tonight and Saturday. Winds will be onshore 5 to 10 knots much of the time and seas on the ocean will average 2 to 3 ft. Fair weather tonight and then showers and a few tstms are expected Saturday. There are both greater chances for rains and thunder across the southern NJ waters and DE/DE Bay waters too. Outlook... Saturday night through Tuesday...No marine headlines expected. Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected on the waters Saturday night then only a chance for showers Sunday. Rip Currents... For Saturday...Onshore winds around 10 MPH and multiple swell groups (one of which has a 12 to 14 second period) will result in a MODERATE risk for rip currents at the Jersey Shore. Breaking waves will also be around 2 to 3 feet. For the Delaware Beaches, winds should be lower with lower breaking waves, resulting in a LOW risk for rip currents. For Sunday...Winds shift southwesterly around 5 to 15 mph with lessening influence from the longer period swells. Breaking waves will be closer to 1 to 2 feet. This will result in a LOW risk for rip currents at the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...OHara AVIATION...OHara/Staarmann MARINE...OHara/Staarmann  371 FXUS64 KMEG 212349 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 649 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 648 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8PM today for portions of east Arkansas and north Mississippi. Heat index values will peak at 107 degrees. - Conditions will turn cooler and drier this weekend, providing a reprieve from triple-digit heat index values. - Northwest flow aloft will keep rain chances in the forecast each day next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A stalled frontal boundary is currently just south of the Memphis metropolitan area as of 11 AM. Temperatures are in the low to mid 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s on the 'cool' side of the boundary with slightly warmer and moister air across most of north Mississippi. This front is anticipated to continue its descent this afternoon, which could lead to a few isolated showers and thunderstorms, so a slight chance PoP was added for this afternoon near the I-22 corridor. The warm side of the boundary is under a Heat Advisory through 8 PM today for heat index values up to 107F. Once the front clears the region, cooler and drier conditions will prevail through the weekend. Drier air will allow for heat index values to fall below the triple digits for much of the area, with the Delta region finally falling below 105F. There could be a few showers and thunderstorms Saturday along and west of the Mississippi River, but model soundings indicate significant dry air, resulting in low confidence regarding convective coverage and accumulation on Saturday. Current forecast depicts a shortwave embedded in northwest flow bringing showers and thunderstorms across the area early Monday morning, but this seems to be heavily weighted on the GFS and its ensemble members. Northwest flow looks to be the favored pattern into the next week, but most guidance suggests this pattern really taking hold on Tuesday as an upper ridge extends across much of the south central US. The northwest flow will keep temperatures on the cooler side, however, this results in the Mid- South being vulnerable to MCSs propagating southward. While ensemble members have low probability of severe weather ingredients, this is likely to change in the presence of an MCS that does develop threatening damaging winds. While the SPC has not issued a formal convective outlook for this period, we will continue to monitor the potential for MCS development and associated damaging wind threats. DNM && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 648 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 No significant aviation weather issues tonight, other than the potential for patchy fog at MKL and TUP. Light easterly winds and VFR will prevail for the late evening and overnight at MEM. Short range ensemble guidance remains varied with respect to TSRA chances on Saturday. HRRR remains on the eastern edge of the guidance envelope, with TSRA impacting JBR, MEM and MKL. The HRRR's weight is reflected in the HREF and Extended TCF. The 18Z REFS ensemble TSRA corridor remains positioned over central AR, with impacts as far east as CKM. Given the spread in ensemble guidance and potential impacts, a PROB30 TSRA has been introduced for JBR and MEM for late Saturday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 An overall low fire weather risk will remain in place over the next few days. A weak cold front will clear the region today and decrease relative humidity values to around 40% this afternoon along and west of the Mississippi River. This trend will spread across the region for the next few days, however, surface and 20- ft winds will remain light. Due to light surface winds, some patchy fog is anticipated across the Tennessee River valley for the next few mornings. Wetting rain chances will ramp up early next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ049-058. MO...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ007-010-011- 020>024. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...PWB  451 FXUS62 KRAH 212350 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 750 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for southern counties this afternoon. * Flood watch expanded to Anson county. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 245 PM Friday... 1) There is a risk of excessive rainfall across the entire forecast area, primarily during the afternoon and early evening. 2) There is a risk of severe thunderstorms across the entire forecast area this afternoon and evening, with the greatest threat along and south of US-64. && .DISCUSSION... As of 245 PM Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1... There is a risk of excessive rainfall across the entire forecast area, primarily during the afternoon and early evening. The Weather Prediction Center has the entire forecast area under a slight (level 2 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall. Locally, a flood watch was issued overnight for much of the area, excluding the Triad and areas northeast of the Triangle, going through Saturday morning. A boundary is set up across southern counties, having pushed slightly farther south than anticipated. From Sanford and Erwin to the northeast, low clouds and northerly flow have kept temperatures primarily in the 70s, while out in the Triad and southern counties, more sun has allowed for temperatures to climb in the 80s and lower 90s. While convective-allowing models have performed poorly over the last day or two, there are still indications that thunderstorms currently developing along the North Carolina/South Carolina border will expand in coverage and push to the north during the afternoon. With slow storm movement, deep moisture, and "skinny CAPE", these storms will have the potential to bring multiple inches of rain in a short period of time. In particular, the 12Z HREF shows approximately a 50% potential for 3 inches of rain in 3 hours just to the south of the Triangle during the late afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will likely peak in coverage before sunset, continue into the evening, then rapidly drop off after midnight. KEY MESSAGE 2... There is a risk of severe thunderstorms across the entire forecast area this afternoon and evening, with the greatest threat along and south of US-64. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Triad and counties along the VA/NC border in a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk, with the rest of the forecast area in a slight (level 2 of 5) risk. The primary threat is damaging winds, although large hail cannot be ruled out. As of 2pm, there is minimal MLCAPE and large amounts of CIN along and to the north of US-64, while the greatest instability is to the south of the boundary that was discussed in Key Message 1. That is the primary reason that the Severe Thunderstorm Watch that was issued around 1:30pm only included the southern half of the forecast area and did not extend any farther to the north. Across Cumberland and Sampson counties, the MLCAPE is as high as 3000 J/kg. There is at least 30 kt of effective bulk shear across the forecast area, which should help to eventually organize storms. The greatest threat for severe thunderstorms should be over the next several hours, and the Severe Thunderstorm Watch is valid through 9pm. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 750 PM Friday... 24 hour TAF period: A line of storms will impact KRDU and possibly KRWI this evening, with a larger area of rain and embedded showers/storms likely to impact KGSO, KFAY, KRDU, and KRWI for the next several hours. Additional showers/storms could develop near KINT between issuance and midnight, but confidence is lower there. Cigs should come down to MVFR and IFR this evening, then likely lowering further to LIFR overnight. Vsbys should also dropbelow VFR, generally in the 1-4 SM range most sites. Cigs will be slow to lift on Saturday, with sub-VFR possible into the early-mid afternoon, latest northeast (KRWI). There could be some iso/sct showers/storms Sat aft, mainly at KRDU, KFAY, and KRWI, but confidence is still somewhat low at this time. Outlook: Widespread restrictions are not currently forecast for any sites Saturday night, although if precipitation is heavy enough, there could be local restrictions. Dry VFR conditions are expected Sunday through Tuesday night before a chance of thunderstorms returns to all terminals Wednesday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Saturday morning for NCZ023>025-039>043- 073>078-083>086-088-089. && $$ DISCUSSION...Green AVIATION...10/Green  462 FXUS63 KIND 212350 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 750 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated/scattered showers and a few t-storms are possible late tonight...and again Saturday afternoon, mainly east. - Cooler and less humid weather expected Sunday through Tuesday with highs mainly in the 70s to near 80. - Areas of late night/early morning fog will occur Saturday and Sunday nights. - Dry weather expected Monday and Tuesday with increasing chances for rain and storms mid-late next week. && .DISCUSSION (This evening through Friday)... Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Late this Afternoon... Elevated showers over northern Indiana are indicative of a weak lead shortwave. An instability axis extends across far eastern portions of the forecast area northward into NE Indiana. Recent convective development in NE Indiana was occurring in a zone of modest low level convergence. There is a small chance that an isolated shower or TS will develop in extreme northeastern zones before activity weakens around sunset. Tonight and Saturday... Vigorous convective development will continue to the northwest of central Indiana across parts of southern WI/far northern IL and eastern IA the remainder of the afternoon into the evening. This activity is forming in a broad convergence zone ahead of a seasonably strong shortwave trough and within a moderate to strong instability axis with MLCAPE values from 2000-3000 J/KG. TS activity in several lines will develop develop S-SE towards central Indiana overnight. However, instability decreases markedly with SE extent, with MUCAPE under 1000 J/KG across all of central Indiana overnight. Time of day combined with minimal instability suggests that the severe weather threat is close to zero across the forecast area. Well south of any precip and/or convective clouds overnight, patchy fog is expected across southern portions of central Indiana where light winds and mostly clear skies will prevail. The weak cold front associated with this progressive system will push across the region Saturday morning. There is some indications that a secondary shear induced mid level vorticity max will move through the region on Saturday afternoon. With residual instability, a few lower topped showers/TS will be possible behind the main cold front but ahead of this mid level feature/surface convergence boundary during the afternoon, mainly over eastern zones. Have maintained pops in these regions. Would not be overly surprised with some renegade showers across western zones where some instability remains, but for the sake of consistency will leave out of the forecast. Saturday night through Sunday... In the wake of the shortwave/cold front Saturday surface high pressure will gradually build southward through the northern/central plains into the upper MS valley. Broad NW low level flow will support some lake enhanced clouds and showers Saturday evening and again during Sunday afternoon in far northern areas mainly during the period when daytime heating/convective overturning is maximized. A stout mid level inversion noted on forecast soundings should limit convective cloud depth and only a slight chance of showers is currently forecast. Sunday night through Tuesday... Broad area of surface high pressure will push SE into the Ohio Valley through the period, providing for much drier conditions, with dewpts falling into the 50s. As a result most areas will see low temperatures in the 50s Sunday night. Light winds and mostly clear skies will lead to another night with areas of fog Sunday night. A weak system in the NW flow aloft is expected to move across the MO/mid-MS valleys Monday into Tuesday. At present the only expected effect from this system will be increasing mid-high clouds. This should limit fog chances Monday night and keep high temperatures in the 70s most areas Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday through Friday... Another upper wave/surface cold front will move through during the period. Confidence in timing is very low considering the system is currently off the west coast, so for now will only have some low PoPs. Seasonable temperatures are expected with increasing humidity with increasing SW flow in the low levels. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 748 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Impacts: - Isolated/scattered -SHRA/TSRA late tonight into Saturday morning - Low chance for brief fog at outlying sites Saturday morning - WNW winds gusting up to 20-25KT Saturday afternoon/late day Discussion: Mainly VFR conditions expected near central Indiana terminals through Saturday evening. Area of BKN/OVC mid cloud coming off of northern IL convection will overtake western central IN by 02Z this evening, ahead of approaching considerable cloudiness from next, weaker, upper wave/cold front. At times scattered convection and possible isolated thunder, will cross local region within 06Z-13Z, with additional -SHRA possible with fropa early Saturday. Low confidence on MVFR from convection...with also a brief window of potential MVFR from fog at terminals outside of KIND, towards dawn. Overall light/variable flow tonight will yield to stronger post- frontal flow Saturday midday-afternoon, with winds veering slightly within 270-320 degrees, gusting up to 20-25KT through late afternoon. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ AVIATION...AGM DISCUSSION...Crosbie  517 FXUS64 KMRX 212351 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 751 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 728 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - This afternoon and evening, scattered showers and storms are expected in Northeast Tennessee, Southwest Virginia and the East Tennessee Mountains. Elsewhere, showers and storms will be more isolated. - Mostly dry conditions with near normal temperatures through the weekend and early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Cu have developed across the region. Scattered showers have popped up along the TN/KY border - these should gradually drift eastward over the afternoon hours. Additional showers and storms develop this afternoon with coverage limited to isolated to widely scattered at best. Storm motions will vary given weaker flow aloft. Any outflow boundaries could spawn additional showers and storms. Severe weather is not expected this afternoon, but brief downpours and gusty winds will be possible with any passing shower. An isolated severe wind report cannot be ruled out. We'll dry out after sunset with winds becoming calm. The development of patchy dense fog is likely in low lying areas & locations near bodies of water. Temperatures will top out this afternoon near normal, in the 80s, with cooler/drier air on tap for the upcoming weekend. We get a brief break from the excessive humidity this weekend into early next week. Mostly dry and seasonable temperatures on are tap for Saturday and Sunday as a sfc high pressure builds into the region. This high pressure will usher in drier air from the north- central NOAM. Temperatures gradually rebound back toward normal mid- week. That means the return of more humid weather & rain chances too. Northwesterly flow aloft will provide a continuous flow of weak shortwaves mid-week through the end of the work week. The NBM PoPs are generally 20-40 percent range next Wednesday thru Friday, peaking in the afternoon hours, but not widespread rain event on the horizon. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 728 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Isolated showers and storms are dissipating in the TN Valley. Showers and storms are holding together in SW Virginia near TRI but are expected to dissipate in the next few hours. With clearing skies overnight, fog development is a concern especially near TRI where fog may be dense in the early morning hours. Any fog will dissipate shortly after sunrise tomorrow morning. Tomorrow will be dry, except for possibly some isolated showers and storms near TRI in the evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 93 68 91 / 0 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 89 66 86 / 20 10 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 68 90 64 87 / 10 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 84 63 81 / 30 20 30 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...BH AVIATION...McD  439 FXUS65 KBOI 212350 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 550 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong thunderstorm-outflow wind event moving northward through Idaho this evening. - Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT in the Treasure Valley, western Magic Valley, and Upper Weiser River Valley. - Weak Pacific cold front will bring more thunderstorms to the area Saturday afternoon and evening. && .SHORT TERM /Through Sunday Night/... Issued 246 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026 The big issue early this evening will be strong thunderstorm-outflow winds entering southwest Idaho ahead of a northward surge of monsoon moisture currently in Nevada. HRRR is the most aggressive of all models but it tends to do well in these situations. HRRR has shown this outflow event consistently in hour-by-hour updates since last night, moving across the NV/ID border around 6 PM MDT this evening, through the Snake Basin 8-9 PM MDT, then weakening as it gets into the ID mountains around 9 PM but still holding together all the way past McCall around midnight MDT. A Wind Advisory has been issued for winds 20-35 mph with gusts to 55 mph, i.e., not as intense as HRRR as that model may have over-forecast it. The full force of the HRRR forecast would bring gusts 60 to 75 mph through the Snake Basin, likely causing damage, not to mention blowing dust and severely restricted visibility. Even so, areas of blowing dust and reduced visibility are expected. Strongest winds should last less than one hour at any given location. The timing of the event looks more definite, though, with the event entirely north of the Snake Basin by 10 PM MDT as it continues to move north while steadily weakening. By the time it gets to McCall, max gusts should be less than 40 mph. As stated earlier, these winds are due to outflow ahead of thunderstorms in a northward surge of monsoon moisture, so that after the winds die down there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms, but with little rain reaching the ground tonight. Meanwhile, we still have a Heat Advisory in effect through 9 PM MDT this evening. Saturday should be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today as a Pacific cold front moves inland and through our area. The front will bring gusty west winds to Oregon and breezy northwest winds to western Idaho. With monsoon moisture still present on the Idaho side, the approaching front will help develop more showers and storms Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, with a better chance of rain than tonight's storms. Sunday will be slightly cooler again, with another chance of late-day showers and storms on the Idaho side. Nighttime temps will be warm tonight and Saturday night, then cooler Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/... Issued 246 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026 Southwest flow aloft will continue through the long term as the Desert Southwest upper-level ridge is tempered by semi-persistent troughing over the Pacific NW. Enough moisture will be in place to carry shower and thunderstorms chances through at least Tuesday night, primarily over southwest ID, with greater uncertainty Wednesday onward. Models show a potent shortwave trough moving over the area on Monday afternoon, with a 20 to 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms over southern ID. In far southeastern OR, there is a 15 to 30 percent chance Monday afternoon and evening as well. The upper-level low pressure system is forecast to move inland mid-to-late next week, causing dry, breezy, and slightly cooler temperatures Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures will be around 2-5 degrees above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /00Z Saturday through Sunday/... Issued 540 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026 Generally VFR. High densityaltitude from heat through evening. Areas of wildfire smoke. Scattered showers/thunderstorms from S to N through late tonight. Activity capable of erratic outflows to 40-55 kt, and blowing dust reducing vis. Surface winds outside of storms: variable 5-15 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. A 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms impacting KBOI terminal, this evening through 22/05Z. Moderate confidence of strong outflow wind gusts and blowing dust reducing vis at the terminal from nearby storms. Surface winds: variable 5-15 kt, gusty storm outflow winds 35-50 kt possible this evening from the southeast-southwest. Weekend Outlook...Generally VFR. Areas of wildfire smoke. Scattered showers and thunderstorms returning Saturday, especially far E Oregon and SW Idaho. Gusty outflow winds 35-55 kt and locally heavy rain from storms. High density altitude from heat Sat afternoon. Drier Sunday. Surface winds: Gusty SW winds Saturday afternoon. Breezy W-NW winds all areas on Sunday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Red Flag Warning from noon Saturday to midnight MDT Saturday night for IDZ401>403-421-424-426. Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ012-014-016- 033. Wind Advisory until 10 PM MDT this evening for IDZ012-014>016- 029-030. OR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/ this evening for ORZ064. Wind Advisory until 10 PM MDT /9 PM PDT/ this evening for ORZ064. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ670>672. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....SH SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....CH  685 FXUS63 KMPX 212355 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 655 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable temperatures over the next week with both highs and lows within a few degrees of normal. - Chance for some thunderstorms in east central Minnesota this evening, next chance for rain early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 142 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 As temperatures have risen this afternoon the low morning's stratus has lifted and been replaced with fair weather cumulus clouds. A frontal passage this evening into the early overnight hours will provide for a chance for a few isolated thunderstorms. Shear is poor and the thermal profile does not allow for much instability. So strong storms are not expected. There looks to be enough instability for some thunderstorms, mainly in east central Minnesota. By the time it gets into western Wisconsin the diurnal temperature drop will lower instability such that chances will decrease further. Behind this frontal passage high pressure will move in for the weekend. This will give us an overall very nice weekend with mostly sunny to sunny skies and highs up near 80 both days. Clear skies will allow for ample mixing though and we could see some gusty winds in the afternoon, especially on Saturday. Nothing super high, with gusts up around 20-25 mph. Clear skies will allow for ample radiational cooling both Saturday and Sunday nights. Sunday night will also see some CAA so temperatures as low as the 40s will be possible in parts of northeast MN and northwest WI. On Monday the high pressure will start to move out keeping the daytime fairly similar to the weekend. Late Monday into Tuesday is the next anticipated frontal passage. How much moisture this frontal passage will have to work with is the main question right now. Forecast soundings from the global deterministic models show ample high and mid level saturation with less low level saturation. When looking towards ensemble QPF there is a good amount of spread still which makes the lower NBM PoPs make sense. NBM has kept the PoP chances low to reflect this spread within the ensemble guidance. The spread should decrease over the weekend and provide for a better idea of when and where rain chances will be. The next rain chance past Mon/Tue would be towards the end of the next week and as expected for this time range there is a large spread on timing and level of impact. All of the main global deterministic models have something in that time range though, so it is worth keeping an eye on. Overall no strong temperature advection over the week next week. Which supports the overall near normal temperature forecast. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 We will start this period with showers in northern MN drifting south. However, the instability that fed these showers does not extend into the MPX area, so we may see some returns on radar, but we aren't expecting much to reach it to the ground. The fact that the storms that developed in the Fargo/Moorehead area back around 22z have fallen apart before reaching Douglas county is a good sign for us remaining dry this evening, so added no precip to these TAFs, with nothing more than an accas field expected. Deep mixing tomorrow will allow for some gusty northwest winds to develop, but it will just make the weather on Saturday some of the nicest weather we see all year. KMSP...Not anticipating any rain for MSP, just some accas around midnight. That's about it for excitement from the weather department this period. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind N 5 kts. MON...VFR, chc -SHRA late night. Wind S 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR, chc -SHRA early. Wind SW 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NDC AVIATION...MPG  757 FXUS61 KBGM 212356 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 756 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Some minor adjustments to shower chances and precipitation amounts for the weekend. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A broad upper level low moving in later Saturday into Sunday is expected to lead to unsettled weather into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Another fairly clear night as high pressure departs. Fog looks to be a bit more confined to the valleys tonight. Our region will be between low pressure systems Saturday. With southeast flow, clouds will start to increase with enough moisture to produce some showers Saturday night. The main cold frontal passage looks to be anywhere from late morning till mid- afternoon. This will limit the overall instability despite modest shear in place for any thunderstorms to be strong to severe. However, enough instability looks to be present for a few thunderstorms to develop in addition to another round of showers during this timeframe. General QPF does not look sufficient either for anything other than localized ponding of water in urban areas and some rises on small streams. Temperatures look to be fairly typical with lows near 60 and highs near 80 through the weekend then trend cooler early next week. This will be due to northwest flow under a broad upper level trough. West to northwest flow may result in some lake effect showers as well on both Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures then rebound for the remainder of the week. Ensemble guidance is keying on Thursday and Friday for the next chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure in place and dry air mixing in this afternoon means that fog will be limited to ELM tonight. Fog develops later, likely not till after 6Z tonight at ELM with LIFR conditions likely by around 9Z. Fog lifts after 13Z with VFR conditions tomorrow. All other terminals will be VFR for the entire 24 hour period. Some showers try to move in from the west in the afternoon but associated restrictions are not till after 0Z. Outlook... Saturday Night into Sunday...Showers and potentially thunderstorms with associated restrictions. Monday...Scattered showers at the Central NY terminals with associated restrictions possible. Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWG AVIATION...AJG/KL