580 FXUS62 KGSP 220205 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1005 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... PoP trends updated based on radar and latest forecast guidance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Convection will slowly move south into the early overnight. 2. Drier weather returns Sunday through early next week, with afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances returning by midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Convection will slowly move south into the early overnight. Convection is weakening as it moves south across the area. The storms are showing decent speed; however, they are very efficient rainfall producers. Therefore, some heavy rainfall remains possible. The severe threat has diminished but can't rule out a rogue strong storm. Convection should end or move out of the area shortly after midnight, but some showers may linger overnight. Key message 2: Drier weather returns Sunday through early next week, with afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances returning by midweek. Behind the front, drier and somewhat cooler air moves into the area by Sunday, shunting rain chances for a a few days. As a surface high migrates eastward over the Midwest and into the northeast portion of the country, reduced moisture and air from the north contribute to a welcomed break in heat as temperatures look to dip into the 80s for most of the area through the end the forecast period. As the high moves offshore by midweek, moisture slowly starts to return and increases rain chances once again. Mostly expecting the typical summertime afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity to resume. Overall, calmer and slightly cooler weather ahead. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Second round of convection moving out of the mountains and into the foothills and piedmont at this time. It has cleared KAVL, although a shower is possible through early evening, and is on the doorstep of KHKY/KGSP/KGMU. Have short TEMPOs there. The convection may reach KCLT so PROB30 continues there. Least chance at KAND, so no TSRA mention for now. Guidance still insistent on MVFR then IFR cigs developing overnight. They also suggest mainly MVFR vsby, with IFR to LIFR at KAVL/KHKY. Show all of this in the TAFs. Slow improvement after daybreak with VFR all areas by 17Z. Only isolated convection expected Saturday, so no mention at this time. Southeasterly wind this evening becomes light and variable overnight, then light SW, NNW at KAVL, on Saturday. Outlook: No significant chance of convection until Wednesday. Mountain valley fog and low stratus is possible each morning. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ CP/RWH  371 FXUS64 KJAN 220219 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 919 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous heat stress across at western portions of the forecast area again Saturday. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 919 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Rest of tonight... Frontal zone is draped just north of Interstate 20, with expectations that this will continue to dive southward into the overnight hours. Synoptic pattern remains with deep broad troughing and stout ridge (597-600DM at 500mb) over the Four Corners. Drier air is situated north of the frontal zone, with deeper moisture to the south. Earlier rain and active storm period has shifted southward, so rest of the evening should remain much quieter. There will remain some cloud cover overnight for areas , but clearing to the north. Lows will remain seasonably warm (70-74F). Updates are out. /DC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Through Saturday: A frontal boundary will sag slowly southward toward the coast and help to focus scattered diurnally driven storms for the remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening over the southern half of the area. Given how hot and unstable the boundary layer conditions are, steep low level lapse rates are supporting microburst winds (e.g., 58 mph gust at TVR just now), and have continued to message for a slight severe weather risk this afternoon/evening. This threat may shift into northwest portions of the area Saturday afternoon as stronger mid level flow potentially brings organized convection, so stay tuned for additional severe weather messaging. Of course the dangerous heat threat continues as well and have issued an additional heat advisory for Saturday. The heat will gradually become more focused over southwest portions of the area, and have adjusted our messaging to reflect this. Sunday through next week: Global model guidance indicate that a northwest flow pattern will evolve and persist through the remainder of the forecast. A NW-SE oriented thermal gradient will support the greatest heat stress over southwest portions of the forecast area, but this doesn't appear it will be more than a limited to elevated dangerous heat situation. This pattern would continue to support an occasional MCS threat, but timing details are very uncertain, and overall rain chances are not great in the mean. Unfortunately for those needing rainfall, there are no strong signals for significant rainfall at this point aside from a gradual uptick in rain chances as we go later into next week. All global model ensembles point to dry anomalies. Given the continued vegetative stress, the forecast area will become more vulnerable to fire danger should wind/RH thresholds be met. As of now the weather pattern isn't supporting this, but all fire related interests should monitor closely. /EC/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 919 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR flight conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will be light and variable tonight and gradually shifting northerly but remaining light (sustained/gusts under 10mph) into Saturday. /DC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 73 100 74 99 / 0 0 10 10 Meridian 73 99 73 98 / 10 0 10 10 Vicksburg 73 100 73 98 / 0 10 10 10 Hattiesburg 74 99 74 99 / 40 0 0 10 Natchez 74 101 75 99 / 10 0 0 10 Greenville 73 99 73 98 / 0 10 20 10 Greenwood 72 98 72 97 / 0 10 10 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ018-019-025- 034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>064-072. LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ007>009-015- 016-023>026. AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ074-075. && $$ DC/EC/DC  418 FXUS62 KKEY 220220 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1020 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Conditions remain slightly favorable for an island cloud line and associated waterspouts tomorrow afternoon. - Rain and thunder chances will gradually return to near normal over the weekend through early next week. - Highs near 90 and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s suggest afternoon heat indices will peak at 105 to 108 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1021 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Generally light southeast breezes persist across the Florida Keys. Broad high pressure in the Gulf, a weakened cold front stretched across the southeastern US, and the central Atlantic High located west of the Azores means the gradient across the Keys are maintaining the light breezes. Radar-wise, the KBYX radar detected very few meteorological objects this evening. Satellite observations from GOES East suggest the only clouds present across the Keys were decaying cirrus and the occasional cumulus. Stargazers in the Keys will appreciate the drier air, but the light winds and lack of breezes suggests that radiational cooling will be a consideration tonight for the largest islands of the Keys. The 00Z KKEY sounding sampled an environment with weak low level steering flow, below five knots, and an amount of precipitable water below the 10th percentile for the day. In one day, the amount of moisture sampled over Key West dropped by over half an inch. Comparing the moisture in the sounding, generally southerly winds, and lingering dry air in the 850 to 500 mb layer per Advected Layer PW calculations gives an explanation as to why the skies are so clear. Tonight, expect low end rain and thunder chances, if showers are even able to form, amidst light breezes. && .MARINE... Issued at 1021 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a split ridge pattern remains in place across the Florida Keys coastal waters. This will promote generally light to gentle southeast to south breezes through Sunday, becoming variable at times during the afternoon hours. While North Atlantic ridging builds westward, southeasterly breezes will become more established for Sunday night through the middle of next week, becoming gentle and at times moderate during the overnight hours. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1021 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the upcoming forecast period. Near surface winds will be generally light southeasterlies with occasional VRBL periods. Tomorrow, the best chance for a vicinity shower would be possible island cloud line formation near EYW in the afternoon. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest  489 FXUS63 KBIS 220223 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 923 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near average temperatures are favored to continue through next week, with Monday being a slightly warmer day. - Medium chances (30 to 60 percent) for showers and thunderstorms late Saturday night through Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 923 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A quiet night continues with no updates needed at this time. UPDATE Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Showers and thundershowers have exited the forecast area. Therefore, removed any remaining PoPs early this evening. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Currently, northwest flow aloft with an elongated upper level ridge stretched from the Southern Rockies into the Pacific Northwest. Embedded wave and subtle frontal boundary contributing to an area of showers/isolated thunderstorms moving south-southeast across the area this afternoon. This activity will move out of the general area over the next few hours, with a quiet night expected with sfc high pressure building in. Surface high pressure building into the Northern Plains will result in quiet weather to start the weekend. As the sfc high develops east across the region, increasing southerly return flow will see increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms along with temperature trending warmer Sunday into Monday. The remainder of the week will see a Rockies upper level ridge rebuilding and periodically breaking down, resulting in seasonal temperatures though periods of enhanced precipitation chances. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR ceilings and visibility are expected through the period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Telken DISCUSSION...NH AVIATION...Telken  603 FXUS66 KMTR 220227 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 727 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 308 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Temperatures will be close to or below normal into the beginning of next week - Warm and dry conditions above 1000ft persist into the weekend && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 308 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 (This evening through Saturday night) The forecast is on repeat today. Satellite imagery shows high clouds streaming overhead and the stratus a bit more dispersed along the coast. Expect these conditions to continue this afternoon, with the marine layer making a return later this evening and overnight. Guidance shows the marine layer should be around 1000-1500ft across our service area, which should lead to another night and morning of cloudy skies for the majority of the valleys. Low clouds continue to clear by mid to late morning, with a few high clouds potentially lingering into Saturday. With stratus clearing potentially a bit earlier and less high clouds, highs should be similar to Thursday, perhaps a few degrees warmer. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 308 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 (Sunday through next Thursday) The extended forecast looks similar, as we remain caught in the quasi-zonal to weak troughing while high pressure holds to the east. Temperatures should cool a few degrees on Sunday and then moderate into early next week. Models and ensembles show ridging trying to build slightly to the west, which would lead to warming for mid to late next week. Some caveats to what might happen will be the Pacific. The Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center shows three potential disturbances well south of Baja. Could influence how the high behaves. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 727 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 It's VFR except for patchy coastal stratus and fog /IFR/ along San Mateo County and an area of stratus and fog /IFR/ along Monterey County. Mid and high clouds, including wildfire smoke over the north Central Coast, are moving northeastward over the forecast area. An area of cooler near surface air will arrive from the northwest tonight and Saturday morning resulting in a return of stratus, fog /IFR-LIFR/ and possibly a few patches of drizzle. Vicinity of SFO...Moderate to high confidence VFR continues through at least 05z this evening due to an earlier erosion of stratus, but also including a higher amount of water vapor in the mid to upper levels slowing radiative cooling tonight. NAM model output does show near surface cooler air arriving overnight, this will support redevelopment of stratus /MVFR/ including possibly IFR early Saturday morning; not advertised in the 00z, however may include IFR in 06z TAF issuance. West wind gusts to 25 to 30 knots otherwise decreasing wind to 10 to 15 knots tonight and Saturday morning. Westerly wind increasing to 20 to 28 knots Saturday afternoon to mid Saturday evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Some erosion of stratus is taking place to the northwest across the Monterey Bay however orographic upslope cooling of air parcels upon arrival vicinity KMRY is occurring supporting a stratus /MVFR-IFR/ ceiling. Stratus /IFR/ is forecast to reach KSNS during the evening as well. Wildfire smoke so far is aloft. A few patches of drizzle are possible tonight and Saturday morning. Conditions improve to MVFR-VFR by late Saturday morning and afternoon. West to northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 308 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Widespread moderate to fresh northwest breezes prevail through the weekend with slight to moderate seas. Locally strong breezes with occasional neargale force gusts are expected in the coastal jet regions of Point Sur and Point Reyes. Hazardous conditions for small crafts are expected this afternoon for the bay waters and immediate coastal waters. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Navarrete Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  625 FXUS63 KTOP 220228 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 928 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Overnight storms may produce isolated pockets of gusty winds up to 60 mph and small hail. - Weather pattern remains largely unchanged this weekend through most of next week with occasional chances for showers and storms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 928 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Latest radar shows convection this evening has developed further west over the NEB panhandle than earlier runs of the HRRR depicted. As a result the 01Z HRRR has trended to keeping more robust convection west of the area. This is also supported by the 01Z RAP which shows the 850MB theta-e ridge and low level jet setting up across western KS. There is still a signal for perhaps some elevated showers and storms northeast of an 850MB boundary across central KS. So no big changes to the forecast are planned. Think the broad brushed 30 percent chance POPs are reasonable. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Currently observing elevated showers and storms across NE this afternoon, associated with a mid level perturbation trailing southeast across the central plains. Main question is if these storms will dissipate or maintain themselves as they enter northern Kansas after 2 PM. Upper forcing weakens by late afternoon before a stronger wave arrives late tonight. In the meantime, atmosphere in our northern counties continues to destabilize today as MUCAPE reaches 3000 J/KG in far northeast Kansas after 3 PM. Bulk shear increases by early evening as well to near 50 kts. If storms maintain themselves or redevelop, the atmosphere is supportive of severe wind gusts and large hail. It's important to note that several cams, including the HRRR, have weakened storms before they enter our area so there exists higher than average uncertainty in storm evolution this afternoon. Better chances for showers and storms comes late tonight as a stronger upper trough develops another storm complex over Nebraska. Track of these storms has been most consistent impacting north central Kansas so have placed higher pops there through Saturday morning. Severe probabilities are not as high with overnight convection, however cannot rule out isolated wind gusts to 60 mph and small hail. Residual showers and cloud cover should clear by late morning Saturday as a cooler sfc high slides southward during the afternoon. Highs are a tad lower in the mid to upper 80s, and may fall further into the lower 80s Sunday afternoon, dependent on lingering showers and cloud cover. Ensemble guidance maintains a strong consensus for the upper ridge to stay suppressed over the Southwest, leaving the Central Plains within an active shortwave pattern Sunday through next week. Maintained slight chance pops Sunday afternoon as a stronger vort max approaches the region, increasing pops overnight as the enhanced LLJ aids in a cluster of storms dropping southeast out of NE. Additional upper disturbances within the northwest flow may bring renewed shower and storm chances Tuesday evening and Thursday. Temperatures through next week are near normal for this time of year in the upper 80s to low 90s for highs. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 928 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Latest radar trends support keeping the more robust convection to the west of the terminals overnight. There may still be some elevated showers and storms between 10Z and 16Z, but this activity may be more widely scattered. So plan to keep the PROB30 groups without any changes. Issued at 556 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 CAMs continue to show the isolated TSRA falling apart between 00Z and 01Z, with a better signal for convection moving through after 10Z Saturday. Wouldlike to see convection develop upstream before going with more than a PROB30 group. Outside of any precip, VFR conditions are progged to persist with light sfc winds. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Wolters DISCUSSION...Prieto AVIATION...Wolters  652 FXUS66 KMTR 220229 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 727 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 308 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Temperatures will be close to or below normal into the beginning of next week - Warm and dry conditions above 1000ft persist into the weekend && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 308 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 (This evening through Saturday night) The forecast is on repeat today. Satellite imagery shows high clouds streaming overhead and the stratus a bit more dispersed along the coast. Expect these conditions to continue this afternoon, with the marine layer making a return later this evening and overnight. Guidance shows the marine layer should be around 1000-1500ft across our service area, which should lead to another night and morning of cloudy skies for the majority of the valleys. Low clouds continue to clear by mid to late morning, with a few high clouds potentially lingering into Saturday. With stratus clearing potentially a bit earlier and less high clouds, highs should be similar to Thursday, perhaps a few degrees warmer. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 308 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 (Sunday through next Thursday) The extended forecast looks similar, as we remain caught in the quasi-zonal to weak troughing while high pressure holds to the east. Temperatures should cool a few degrees on Sunday and then moderate into early next week. Models and ensembles show ridging trying to build slightly to the west, which would lead to warming for mid to late next week. Some caveats to what might happen will be the Pacific. The Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center shows three potential disturbances well south of Baja. Could influence how the high behaves. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 727 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 It's VFR except for patchy coastal stratus and fog /IFR/ along San Mateo County and an area of stratus and fog /IFR/ along Monterey County. Mid and high clouds, including wildfire smoke over the north Central Coast, are moving northeastward over the forecast area. An area of cooler near surface air will arrive from the northwest tonight and Saturday morning resulting in a return of stratus, fog /IFR-LIFR/ and possibly a few patches of drizzle. Vicinity of SFO...Moderate to high confidence VFR continues through at least 05z this evening due to an earlier erosion of stratus, but also including a higher amount of water vapor in the mid to upper levels slowing radiative cooling tonight. NAM model output does show near surface cooler air arriving overnight, this will support redevelopment of stratus /MVFR/ including possibly IFR early Saturday morning; not advertised in the 00z TAF, however may include IFR in 06z TAF issuance. West wind gusts to 25 to 30 knots otherwise decreasing wind to 10 to 15 knots tonight and Saturday morning. Westerly wind increasing to 20 to 28 knots Saturday afternoon to mid Saturday evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Some erosion of stratus is taking place to the northwest across the Monterey Bay however orographic upslope cooling of air parcels upon arrival vicinity KMRY is occurring supporting a stratus /MVFR-IFR/ ceiling. Stratus /IFR/ is forecast to reach KSNS during the evening as well. Wildfire smoke so far is aloft. A few patches of drizzle are possible tonight and Saturday morning. Conditions improve to MVFR-VFR by late Saturday morning and afternoon. West to northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 308 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Widespread moderate to fresh northwest breezes prevail through the weekend with slight to moderate seas. Locally strong breezes with occasional near gale force gusts are expected in the coastal jet regions of Point Sur and Point Reyes. Hazardous conditions for small crafts are expected this afternoon for the bay waters and immediate coastal waters. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Navarrete Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  075 FXUS63 KAPX 220237 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1037 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers continue at times today and this weekend, along with chances for thunderstorms. Severe storms are not expected. - Noticeably cooler temperatures move in this weekend. - Dry weather returns late Sunday/Monday before our next rain chances move in during the middle of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Pattern Synopsis: Longwave troughing draped across the northeast quadrant of the country will amplify with time this weekend as a potent jet max digs across the northern Great Plains, eventually rounding the base of the trough over the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic late Saturday into Sunday. Forcing aloft provided by this wave will continue to support an elongated cyclone stretching from Hudson Bay down into the Great Lakes that is set to trek across the region this evening through Saturday night. Meanwhile, amplified ridging will fold over the heart of the continent this weekend, placing the Great Lakes under the ridge/trough inflection point and thus best subsidence aloft by the start of next week. This will build surface high pressure into the region on the backside of the departing system Monday and Tuesday. Additional troughing looks to progress overhead through the middle of next week. Forecast Details: Showers will continue across northern Michigan at times through at least the first half of the weekend. Ongoing showers will spread east with time this afternoon and likely increase in coverage over the next few hours into this evening. The most likely area for heavier showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will be across southeast portions of the CWA closer to Saginaw Bay where mostly sunny skies have allowed for better diurnal heating. A relative lull in chances is anticipated for a brief time early tonight before another round of showers looks to move in late tonight along/ahead of a cold front swinging across the Great Lakes. A similar story is expected Saturday as scattered to numerous showers are anticipated again. Best rain chances will come along and east of I-75, especially from late morning into the afternoon as a secondary cold front comes through. Unlike today, ~1,000 J/kg MLCAPE will be in place across northeast lower to support thunderstorm chances with daytime activity tomorrow. However, relatively weak deep-layer shear will keep severe thunderstorm chances very low. The primary threats tomorrow will be lightning and brief heavy downpours. Light showers may linger into Saturday evening with the main chances for rain expected to end before Sunday. A few showers cannot be ruled out on Sunday, but chances currently appear to be less than 20%. Perhaps most notably Sunday will be gusty northwest winds ushering in cool temperatures, giving the area a taste of fall as we head into the end of August. Sustained winds around 10-15 mph will gust to 20-30 mph at times into Sunday evening as daytime temperatures stay in the 60s for most areas. Rain chances look to hold off for the start of next week with high pressure in place, eventually returning to the forecast during the middle of the week as aforementioned troughing slides overhead. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1032 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Initial VFR conditions will give way to MVFR (IFR?) cigs this morning. Cigs improve during later this morning into the afternoon, with perhaps some afternoon showers and storms as well. Confidence continues to remain low on overall coverage of showers/storms. Light winds become a bit gusty out of the northwest as we head into this afternoon. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None.&& $$ DISCUSSION...DJC AVIATION...MSB  537 FXUS61 KOKX 220247 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1047 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Aviation discussion for 03z TAF amendments. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unsettled conditions persist this weekend, with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms at times. 2) Drying out early next week, with temperatures remaining slightly below normal. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Broad troughing remains across Great Lakes and Northeast, with a nearly stalled boundary and area of low pressure meandering just offshore. The center of the nearby low pressure is very evident on GOES-19 visible satellite imagery this afternoon, spinning about 90 mi SSE of Montauk in the western Atlantic. Cloud canopy is swirling around it, with overcast skies persisting across Long Island and much of S CT today, but much brighter skies from NYC on north and west. The center should continue meandering slowly eastward, bringing an end to and remaining light rain or drizzle by early this evening, before another wave approaches from the southwest on Saturday. A few morning showers could clip some coastal locations, before a lull then develops most of Saturday. Broad forcing for ascent from the trough, along with the shortwave energy moving through should help to instigate additional showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms by late Saturday evening. Instability looks relatively limited, but moisture will be abundant, with PWATs along the coast increasing toward 2 inches. WPC has maintained a marginal risk of excessive rainfall across the entire local area, and given the recent rains, it won't take much to renew any nuisance flooding in the urbanized and poor drainage areas. The threat for flash flooding will likely be contingent on training of heavier cells, which is a possibility overnight into Sunday morning. Peak hourly rainfall rates could approach an inch to an inch and a half, with localized totals up to a few inches. Coverage and severity of this activity appears lower in general than Thursday's event however, and opted not to hoist a Flood Watch at this point. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Cyclonic flow with afternoon stratocu likely persists through early next week as the trough axis remains across the Northeast. The trough gradually exits into midweek as the flow aloft transitions to more quasi zonal. Absent any isolated diurnal showers, conditions largely remain dry as high pressure builds in and winds become westerly. Temperatures are forecast to remain slightly below normal, with daytime highs in the 70s to around 80. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low pressure continues to slowly move away from the terminals tonight. A wave of low pressure approaches on Saturday. VFR through tonight, excluding KGON where MVFR cigs likely move in late tonight. MVFR cigs then expected to move back in mid Saturday morning, and could be borderline VFR/MVFR through late Saturday afternoon, especially for NYC terminals and north and west. Potential for -RA Saturday, but vsbys may end up staying VFR through that period. Light winds tonight VRB or NE. E/SE winds under 10kt for Saturday. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... AMD possible Saturday with borderline VFR/MVFR cigs. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Saturday Night: Showers and potential thunderstorms. MVFR to IFR. Sunday: A chance of showers, especially north of the city terminals. Possible thunderstorms. Chance of MVFR or lower at times. Monday through Wednesday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Expect sub-SCA conditions to persist through early next week as a weak pressure gradient settles in over the local waters. Rip Currents: The rip current risk remains moderate for both Saturday and Sunday with a prevailing SE swell. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DR AVIATION...JT MARINE...DR  531 FXUS63 KAPX 220247 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1047 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers continue at times today and this weekend, along with chances for thunderstorms. Severe storms are not expected. - Noticeably cooler temperatures move in this weekend. - Dry weather returns late Sunday/Monday before our next rain chances move in during the middle of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Pattern Synopsis: Longwave troughing draped across the northeast quadrant of the country will amplify with time this weekend as a potent jet max digs across the northern Great Plains, eventually rounding the base of the trough over the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic late Saturday into Sunday. Forcing aloft provided by this wave will continue to support an elongated cyclone stretching from Hudson Bay down into the Great Lakes that is set to trek across the region this evening through Saturday night. Meanwhile, amplified ridging will fold over the heart of the continent this weekend, placing the Great Lakes under the ridge/trough inflection point and thus best subsidence aloft by the start of next week. This will build surface high pressure into the region on the backside of the departing system Monday and Tuesday. Additional troughing looks to progress overhead through the middle of next week. Forecast Details: Showers will continue across northern Michigan at times through at least the first half of the weekend. Ongoing showers will spread east with time this afternoon and likely increase in coverage over the next few hours into this evening. The most likely area for heavier showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will be across southeast portions of the CWA closer to Saginaw Bay where mostly sunny skies have allowed for better diurnal heating. A relative lull in chances is anticipated for a brief time early tonight before another round of showers looks to move in late tonight along/ahead of a cold front swinging across the Great Lakes. A similar story is expected Saturday as scattered to numerous showers are anticipated again. Best rain chances will come along and east of I-75, especially from late morning into the afternoon as a secondary cold front comes through. Unlike today, ~1,000 J/kg MLCAPE will be in place across northeast lower to support thunderstorm chances with daytime activity tomorrow. However, relatively weak deep-layer shear will keep severe thunderstorm chances very low. The primary threats tomorrow will be lightning and brief heavy downpours. Light showers may linger into Saturday evening with the main chances for rain expected to end before Sunday. A few showers cannot be ruled out on Sunday, but chances currently appear to be less than 20%. Perhaps most notably Sunday will be gusty northwest winds ushering in cool temperatures, giving the area a taste of fall as we head into the end of August. Sustained winds around 10-15 mph will gust to 20-30 mph at times into Sunday evening as daytime temperatures stay in the 60s for most areas. Rain chances look to hold off for the start of next week with high pressure in place, eventually returning to the forecast during the middle of the week as aforementioned troughing slides overhead. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1046 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Initial VFR conditions will give way to MVFR (IFR?) cigs this morning. Cigs improve during later this morning into the afternoon, with perhaps some afternoon showers and storms as well. Confidence continues to remain low on overall coverage of showers/storms. Light winds become a bit gusty out of the northwest as we head into this afternoon. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DJC AVIATION...MSB  790 FXUS66 KSEW 220255 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 755 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low approaching from the southwest Friday will move into the coastal waters Saturday and into Southern British Columbia early Sunday morning. This system will bring cooler weather with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Upper level ridge rebuilding Sunday will move east Monday for dry and mild weather. Upper low shifting inland on Wednesday with showers returning. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The latest forecast remains on track this evening with no updates. Satellite does show some wildfire smoke over western Washington due to light east winds over the crest. Sensors are showing degraded air quality in portions of Whatcom County and King County (due to the Three Queens fire). The air quality should improve on Saturday as the wind flow changes directions. Our next system will move in late tonight and into Saturday and Sunday. This system will bring cooler weather along with increasing chances of thunderstorms. The highest chances of thunderstorms will be in the mountains, especially across the northern Cascades. The highest chances of wetting rains will be near the Canadian border. With the colder air mass in place, Saturday's highs will be cooler and in the 60s to lower 70s across most areas. Showers will linger on Sunday (mainly north part) as the low tracks N/NE into B.C. 33 && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure returns early next week for more dry and mild weather. The flow remains onshore with temperatures close to average. The ridge will stall an upper low offshore that will eventually shift inland by midweek for another round of showers. The low and cooler air mass will result in below average temperatures in the 60s and lower/mid 70s. We're under weak troughing through the end of the week with isolated mountain showers. 33 && .AVIATION... Southerly flow aloft will increase tonight into Saturday as an upper low offshore approaches Western Washington. VFR cigs for the majority of terminals this afternoon with increasing mid and high clouds. MVFR/IFR stratus continues along portions of the coast. Stratus will move inland into Puget Sound into Saturday morning, resulting in more widespread MVFR/IFR cigs. LIFR stratus will exist along portions of the coast tonight into Saturday as well. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop late tonight into Saturday. Probabilities for thunderstorms range to 10 to 20 percent for all terminals, with the higher probabilities from KPAE northwards. Cigs will improve to VFR for interior locations by the afternoon. W/NW winds this afternoon will transition more SW tonight and increase into Saturday. KSEA...VFR with mid and high clouds into tonight. Stratus will spread inland early Saturday, reaching the terminal around 12z. Predominantly low-end MVFR cigs are expected. There is a 20% probability of IFR cigs between 13 to 17z as well. Cigs will slowly improve to VFR into the afternoon, between 19 to 21z. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop early Saturday morning. Confidence remains lower in the exact location for precipitation, but there is a 10 to 15% probability for thunderstorms around the terminal Saturday, peaking between 12 to 20z. W/NW surface winds ranging 5 to 8 kts will transition SW after 00-01z. JD && .MARINE... Onshore flow will increase this evening resulting Small Craft westerly winds through the Strait of Juan de Fuca tonight. A weak surface low then moves into the coastal waters Saturday before the low dissipates Saturday night. Showers will develop late tonight into Saturday associated with the system. There is a also a slight chance (10-20%) for thunderstorms over both the coastal and interior waters on Saturday. South to southwest winds will also increase on Saturday, with gusts ranging 15 to 20 kts for portions of the interior waters and inner coastal waters. High pressure rebuilds Sunday and remains over the area into Tuesday. A cold front moves into the waters by midweek. Seas will mostly be in the 3 to 5 foot range into early next week. JD && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry and warm conditions continuing today. Critical RHs have been observed for locations above 2500 ft so far this afternoon. Increasing cloud coverage and continued low- level onshore flow this evening. Then, an upper-low offshore will track into the region late tonight into early Saturday with the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms. As a result, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the Cascade and Olympic Mountains late tonight into Saturday evening. The North Cascades are currently the most favorable for thunderstorms at this time with a 30-40% chance. Lightning may lead to new fire starts, as well as result in gusty and erratic winds. Low level onshore flow increases Saturday night into Sunday with varying degrees of onshore flow through the middle of next week. Good relative humidity recoveries each night will keep fire weather concerns at a minimum. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms next Wednesday with an upper level trough moving into the area. 41 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning from 5 AM to 8 PM PDT Saturday for West Slopes of the North Cascades Generally above 1500 Feet. Red Flag Warning from 1 AM to 5 PM PDT Saturday for East Portion of the Olympic Mountains-West Portion of the Olympic Mountains-West Slopes of the Central Cascades Generally above 1500 Feet. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM PDT Saturday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$