937 FXUS63 KJKL 220300 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another cold front will bring a possibility of showers and thunderstorms to the area on Saturday. - Some storms on Saturday afternoon and evening could produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts and even some hail. - Noticeably cooler and less humid air will then arrive to start the new week, with mainly dry weather. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026 No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones. UPDATE Issued at 725 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026 23Z sfc analysis shows weak high pressure over eastern Kentucky and this is working to keep the winds light and clear the skies as the isolated showers continue to fade out. Currently, temperatures are running in the upper 70s to low 80s with some valleys reporting mid 70s. Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds, dewpoints are in the mid 60s to lower 70s - highest and stickiest south. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids but also to drop the PoPs off through the rest of the evening and overnight. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 330 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026 Puffy cumulus are bubbling up across eastern Kentucky this afternoon, with a few of them maturing into widely scattered showers and even a few isolated thunderstorms. That aside, temperatures are on the mild side for late August, with readings ranging in the low to mid 80s outside of convection. At the surface, a weak wave of low pressure is traversing far southeast Kentucky along a wavy cold frontal boundary. Aloft, 500 hPa troughing is in place over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with an embedded vort max just upstream over central Kentucky. A second notable 500 hPa vort max is dropping into the trough from northwestern Ontario. It is attended by a weak surface low over Lake Superior from which a cold front sweeps out an arc, first southwestward to along the Iowa/Nebraska border and then west-northwest to along the northern Rockies. The ongoing isolated to scattered convection is likely to increase slightly in coverage over the next hour or two before gradually diminishing with the loss of daytime heating as we head through the evening. As the wavy frontal boundary finally sinks well south of the area, clearing skies, light winds, and ample moisture will set the stage for renewed radiational fog formation overnight, especially in typical sheltered valley locations, though at least patchy fog may develop elsewhere. It will be seasonable, with temperatures dipping back into the mid 60s in most spots. Looking ahead to Saturday, the second vort max will carve a deeper parent trough as it presses into the Lower and Mid-Ohio Valley. This will be attended by the surface cold front, which is currently favored in short-range model guidance to pass through eastern Kentucky during the ~5 PM to midnight timeframe. Ahead of this boundary and upper-level disturbance, strengthening flow aloft will yield 30 to 40 kts of EBWD while good heating is favored to build 2000 to 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE Saturday afternoon. With ample dry air aloft and DCAPE values near or over 1000 J/kg, downdrafts capable of producing strong to damaging winds will be possible on an isolated scale. Additionally, the CAPE profile is well-proportioned within the hail growth zone and hodographs are relatively straight. Therefore, if any of the stronger cells can adopt supercellular characteristics, isolated hail is also a reasonable secondary possibility. Accordingly, SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk (1/5) for damaging winds and large hail across nearly all of the JKL CWA. Heading into Saturday evening and night, convection should diminish as the front and upper-level disturbance depart. In their wake, clearing skies and light winds will once again set the stage for at least some fog in the valleys, though weak low-level northwest flow will be a mitigating factor. Saturday night's low temperatures are forecast to range in the low to mid 60s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 330 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026 The long term period will start with a relatively comfortable air mass in place, by August standards. Surface high pressure supplying the cooler and drier air should be ridging from western Ontario to the lower Ohio Valley, while low pressure (surface and aloft) is just north of the Great Lakes. The upper trough surrounding the low will cover most of the eastern CONUS. Our lowest dew points from this air mass are forecast from Monday into Tuesday, with readings in the 50s, also allowing for lows in that range. In fact, the NBM and MEXMOS are only a couple degrees off the record of 55 at JKL on the 25th. The low and the trough weaken by midweek as they drift east, and a warming trend gets underway locally as geopotential heights rise. The forecast then gets messier moving into the late week time frame. Another upper low or trough is expected to move east southeast to southeast Ontario, which will deepening a larger scale upper trough over the eastern CONUS again. This supports a cold front to move southeast through the Midwest. There is not agreement on the timing of this front to arrive here, or on the surface pattern setting up in advance. At this point, only a generalized forecast is practical, with an increase in moisture/dew points and POP ahead of the front late in the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026 Limited convection will continue to dissipate through the rest of the evening with the loss of diurnal heating. Thereafter, valley fog should again develop and may affect a few of the TAF sites generally during the 06Z to 12Z timeframe. As for winds, outside of any storms, they will generally be light and variable. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GEERTSON LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF  926 FXUS63 KGRB 220317 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1017 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated thunderstorms will exit northeast Wisconsin by shortly after midnight. - Showers and storms (40-60% chance) are expected over north- central to eastern WI on Saturday, mainly in the afternoon. - Dry weather expected Sunday and Monday, with active weather returning for the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Severe Weather Threat Through This Evening...An area of stratus is slowly being replaced by more convective cloud types as a cold front approaches from the west. Already radar returns are popping up in the area where some partial clearing has occurred across north-central and western Wisconsin, just ahead of the cold front. This activity is expected to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon as the partial clearing works its way east, allowing instability to build across eastern and northeast Wisconsin. Forecast instabilities are expected to rise to 1-2 J/g, with the highest values across east- central Wisconsin. Bulk shear looks a bit better than yesterday, clocking in at 20-30 knots, with the best values across east- central Wisconsin coincident with the best instability. That being said, the window for clearing and building instability appears to be fairly short looking at satellite imagery with the best instability and shear south of our area; therefore, the pulling back of the slight risk out of the area per SPC seems appropriate. Current thinking is any storms that develop would be pulsy, with a threat for strong to severe storms this afternoon into this evening in the 3-9PM time frame. The main threat would be damaging winds and large hail. Locally heavy rain will also be possible with any storm. The threat from flooding given the recent dry spell seems to be low; however, if an area gets repeated rounds of activity the threat could increase. The threat greatly diminishes this evening with the loss of daytime heating. This Weekend...Northwest, cyclonic flow will prevail across the Great Lakes. A shortwave trough moving through this flow will create chances (20-60%) for showers and a few storms across north- central and eastern Wisconsin on Saturday, mainly during the afternoon and early evening. Weak deep-layer shear will prevent significant storm organization, keeping the severe weather risk low; however, inverted-V soundings and steep low- level lapse rates would promote some gustier winds and small hail in any stronger shower/storm. A Dry Period...High pressure will then build in Saturday night, providing dry weather across the region Sunday into Monday. Next Week...another shortwave trough is forecast to move across the region late Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. Instability appears modest with this mid-week feature, keeping severe probabilities low. Temperatures into next week will stay fairly close to late- summer norms, with daily highs mostly ranging from the 70s to lower 80s and overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 60s, with a couple nights with lows in the low-mid 40s across northern WI this weekend. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1016 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A cold front is exiting northeast Wisconsin and over Lake Michigan late this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will have or about to exit by TAF issuance time. Winds will shift to the northwest as the front passes. Scattered VFR clouds will likely persist into the overnight hours before clearing occurs for a short time. Patchy ground fog is possible, particularly over the northwoods (RHI). Clouds increase on Saturday morning as an upper disturbance dives into the region from the northwest. While sct-bkn MVFR ceilings could move into far north-central WI after 10Z, expect low end VFR clouds to build with daytime heating in the 15-16Z timeframe. Expect scattered showers and isolated storms to develop over northeast WI in the 19-23Z timeframe which could impact GRB/MTW so added a prob30 group consequently. ATW is on the western edge of the shower potential, but will continue to monitor trends. Northwest winds will be a bit breezy on Saturday with gusts to 20 kts at all terminals. Clearing skies are anticipated after 00z Sun. && .MARINE... Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Persistent S/SSW winds will build waves to 2-4 feet on Lake Michigan late this afternoon. A few 5 foot waves are possible in the open waters. A few gusts to 25 kts possible this afternoon as well. Conditions look to be just shy of Small Craft Criteria, so will hold off on an advisory. As winds turn to the NW this weekend, a few gusts to 25 kts will be possible, especially near Death's Door on Saturday. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Kurimski AVIATION.......MPC MARINE.........Kurimski  959 FXUS64 KOUN 220319 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1019 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1012 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Excessive heat continues through the weekend and into next week. - Isolated to scattered rain/storms are possible most days. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Lingering convection has brought welcome relief from the heat for parts of central and south central Oklahoma. It's also required significant adjustments to our temperature forecast and heat headlines. Additionally, an area of gusty southeast winds resulting from the convective complex is currently over highway 81 at the time of writing, gradually migrating westward. Meanwhile, southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas have already reached triple digit temperatures. Temperatures in northern Oklahoma won't get quite as hot, but dewpoints will keep heat indices near heat advisory level. Fire weather will still be a concern with elevated RFTIs expected in southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas. The aforementioned area of gusty winds may also affect parts of this area, potentially complicating fire fighting efforts. Day && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Convection is looking more likely on Saturday with CAMs getting fairly aggressive about producing storms. First, some early morning activity will be possible near or east of I-35 (lower chances) driven by warm air advection. Second, CAMs are producing an MCS in eastern Kansas that is forecast to dive into eastern Oklahoma, potentially affecting some of our eastern counties. Third, as the MCS and associated outflow make their way south and daytime heating reaches its peak, with residual boundaries in the area we could see additional scattered convection develop westward, mainly south of I-40. This all makes the heat forecast complicated. Northern Oklahoma may get cut off by outflow. Southern and central Oklahoma may get shielded by rain and cloud cover (though some of that may arrive too late in the day to make a difference). Right now, our highest confidence in heat impacts is southwest Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas. We've issued a heat advisory for this area, but additional areas may need to be added as the mesoscale features come into greater focus. We'll be watching fire weather across western Oklahoma and western north Texas as well. RH driven elevated RFTIs will be possible with light winds (outside of potential convection) being the main limiting factor. However, like today, convectively induced winds may complicate fire fighting efforts. Rain chances come down on Sunday as the ridge exerts more influence (though we'll have to keep an eye out for mesoscale features that may change this forecast). Heat (southern two thirds of Oklahoma and north Texas) and fire weather (southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas) will again be the main concerns. Day && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 125 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 As we go throughout the upcoming week, the upper ridge slowly retrogrades back westward. Even by Monday this will allow a more northwest mid-level flow, although weak, to develop across the Southern Plains. Do not anticipate any big changes Monday or Tuesday with another couple of days with near record heat. Although an isolated late day storm can not be ruled out. As we go into Tuesday night, a stronger shortwave drops southeast out of the central Rockies and into Oklahoma, bringing a better chance of rain to portions of Oklahoma and western north Texas. Currently we have 20-40% chance of precip, best across northwest Oklahoma. Hopefully these increase as we get closer, but I don't want to get too optimistic at this point. In the wake of what we hope is some precip, some cooler air slides into parts of the area with temperatures in the 90s along and north of I-40 Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1012 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR ceilings with mid/high clouds. There is a chance (20-30%) for showers/storms to develop overnight/early Saturday and continue into Saturday evening across portions of the area. E to SE winds will continue overnight. Outflow from the thunderstorms Saturday will cause winds to shift directions and/or speed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 77 104 76 103 / 20 30 10 0 Hobart OK 79 107 76 108 / 10 30 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 80 108 79 109 / 10 30 30 0 Gage OK 73 98 71 104 / 0 0 10 0 Ponca City OK 74 94 73 95 / 20 20 10 10 Durant OK 78 107 77 106 / 20 30 30 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ033-036-037- 044. TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ083>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...14 SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...25  130 FXUS63 KMKX 220325 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1025 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms ~12-7 PM Saturday mainly in east- central and southeast Wisconsin. An isolated stronger storm with gusty winds or hail can't be ruled out. - Dry and pleasant conditions Sunday into the beginning of next week. Storm chances return Tuesday evening into Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1030 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Tonight through Saturday night: Quiet weather expected the rest of the night as storms have dissipated or pushed out over the lake with no concerns with the forcing and instability having pushed out as well. Dry conditions largely expected through Saturday morning. Into Saturday afternoon a backdoor cold front in combination with some surface convergence along the lake breeze could bring some additional shower and/or storm development into the early evening. Chances remain fairly limited and only isolated showers/storms are possible but the focus will be closer to the lake and unlikely to impact any of western WI. Shear will be limited and thus we do not expect storms to become strong. Quieter weather will quickly return Saturday night as the front slides out and higher pressure begins to nudge in. Kuroski && .LONG TERM... Issued 1030 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Sunday through Friday: Sunday will feature high pressure building into the region keeping things dry through the day Tuesday. The high pressure will begin to push out Tuesday night into Wednesday thus becoming our next best chance for showers and storms as and 850mb front and upper level shortwave swing through with some WAA, in addition to the surface low and corresponding cold front. Still some uncertainty in track and timing but models generally agree on this pushing through bringing precip with likely some storms as well. In addition, deep layer shear appears to be strong in the 40-50kt range which would bring some severe risk if the timing of storms is into the afternoon/evening with good daytime heating. After Wednesday, uncertainty increases a bit though in general higher pressure seems to be pushing in and strengthening with drier conditions overall more likely, possibly even into the weekend. Kuroski && .AVIATION... Issued 1030 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Tonight through Saturday morning expect quieter conditions with light to modest northwest winds. Into the afternoon some weak instability and a backdoor cold front with some lake breeze impact could allow for a few isolated weak storms or showers closer to the lake but for the most part much of the region is expected top remain dry. Showers and/or storms may cause brief VSBY degradation but otherwise VFR conditions expected. Kuroski && .MARINE... Issued 1030 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A weak low pressure system around 29.8 inches will cross Lake Michigan from north to south tonight and bring a wind shift to the northwest. Then look for gusty northerly winds to develop along a cold front that will track from north to south down Lake Michigan Saturday evening. A few thunderstorms are possible along this front. Northerly winds will persist through Sunday as low pressure around 29.6 inches tracks from Lower Michigan to Ontario. Variable winds are expected for Monday and Tuesday as high pressure of 30.1 inches crosses the Upper Great Lakes. Kuroski && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  243 FXUS64 KOHX 220329 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1029 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1020 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Low thunderstorm chances Saturday, primarily across the Plateau and southern Middle TN. - Overall drier with slightly below-normal temperatures this weekend with patchy fog Saturday and Sunday mornings. - Low to medium rain and storm chances next week with seasonal temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 1020 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Quiet conditions are expected to prevail tonight with the only concern being fog. Mostly clear skies and light winds will be supportive for fog overnight. Highest confidence in fog is across the Plateau, and short-term models support this as well with only low probability of 10-20% for fog west of the Plateau. Upper-level troughing remains in place over the eastern CONUS Saturday, and a weak front will allow for isolated thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon, mainly for areas near the TN/AL border and across the Plateau. Otherwise, it'll be a fairly nice Saturday with most of the area staying dry and seasonable temperatures in the upper-80s to low-90s. Upper-level troughing continues into Sunday and behind the front, Sunday promises to be a very nice day with dry conditions and slightly cooler temperatures in the mid to upper-80s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1020 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Slightly below normal temperatures continue into Monday, but the aforementioned trough moves east by Tuesday. With ridging to the west, northwest flow sets up over Middle TN through the end of the week. Temperatures will warm a few degrees, but will still be seasonably normal. Northwest flow also allows for daily low to medium rain & thunderstorm chances to return Tuesday through the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR conditions prevail this taf cycle. Northwest winds will persist through much of the period with a gradual transition north late Saturday afternoon. Calm winds and clear skies overnight will encourage fog development, some dense, mostly impacting CSV and SRB. Probabilities for vis less than VFR thresholds at BNA, MQY and CKV are low, less than 20%. Fog will burn off after sunrise and winds at all terminals will pick up with occasional gusts up to 20 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 65 92 63 88 / 0 10 0 0 Clarksville 65 91 63 87 / 0 10 0 0 Crossville 63 84 59 81 / 0 0 10 0 Columbia 67 93 65 90 / 0 10 10 0 Cookeville 66 86 61 83 / 0 10 0 0 Jamestown 65 85 61 81 / 0 10 10 0 Lawrenceburg 66 91 64 88 / 0 10 10 0 Murfreesboro 68 93 65 89 / 0 10 0 0 Waverly 67 92 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Clements LONG TERM....Clements AVIATION.....Baggett  586 FXUS63 KLSX 220339 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 1039 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably cool late summer temperatures are expected this weekend into next week with few opportunities for rain. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Currently a ridge of high pressure over the Intermountain West has spread hot and dry conditions out into the Plains. A trough centered over Hudson Bay has extended its influence southward into the Great Lakes, with this trough expected to continue pushing into the Great Lakes and New England over the coming days. A leading shortwave trough is pushing through Wisconsin toward Chicago this afternoon, with a cold front sliding southward behind it. There are two primary areas of convection expected in the next 12 to 24 hours along this front: The first is closer to the shortwave trough tracking into northern Illinois. Here some modest moisture convergence aided by lift from the shortwave trough will lead to scattered thunderstorms potentially merging into a broader complex pushing southeast overnight. It is likely that these storms track to the east of our forecast area, but there's an outside chance (20 percent) that they do move through our far eastern counties overnight. While there is some severe weather threat with this, the threat will be greatest in the evening hours closer to the core of the thunderstorm complex. The threat locally will be considerably lower and later in the night. The second is to the west over Nebraska and Kansas. Here a low level jet this evening will send modest moisture northward toward the front and trigger another thunderstorm complex to develop. This tracks southeast potentially into western Missouri overnight, but is unlikely (less than 10 percent) to make it into our forecast area. The most likely scenario for us tonight will be a subtle passage of the cold front overnight, with winds turning out of the north by morning. Expect a mostly sunny day behind the front on Saturday. Despite cold advection, deep post-frontal mixing will ensure it's another warm day in the mid to perhaps upper 80s. That deep mixing, though, is expected to mix in some drier air from aloft. We've deliberately included more of the higher resolution guidance in the forecast to reflect this drying. Some guidance has dewpoints falling well into the 50s with a corresponding increase in temperature. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 As we go through the weekend, the trough spins into southeastern Canada while the ridge expands its influence eastward into the Rockies and Great Plains. Surface high pressure moving in behind tonight's front will ensure that our area remains more under the influence of the cooler air mass from the trough despite rising heights aloft. Highs only reach the low 80s with lows in the low 60s or even upper 50s at times. As the ridge nudges eastward our area will become better situated to have some effects from ridge running shortwave troughs, what we sometimes call the "ring of fire" of thunderstorm complexes rotating around a ridge. At first, low level moisture is pretty limited due to northerly low level flow near the Gulf, but over the next few days better moisture does eventually lift northward into the Southern Plains. It has more difficulty moving eastward, though, as the influence of the surface high moving into the western Great Lakes and Ohio Valley remains strong. We've seen a growing consensus in guidance at this point for the focus of convection Sunday into Monday to stay just to our southwest along with the effective warm front. Some cloud cover from this activity to our west may actually help to hold temperatures down even further on Monday, potentially in the 70s. Meanwhile on the other side of the warm front the heat is on with temperatures potentially near 100. The next more substantial shortwave trough tracks through the northwest flow on Wednesday, but it's not clear we ever get into the warm, moist air by then. So despite the passage of another weak cold front, we may not get any rain out of it. NBM POP remains low (less than 20 percent), and most of the low resolution ensemble guidance keeps the focus for precipitation to our south where the better moisture exists or to our north where the core of the upper wave will be. Additional shortwave troughs have some potential (20 percent or less) to bring additional rounds of showers and storms through the end of the week, but confidence gets lower with time on when and where those waves will track. There is a general consensus, though, that the ridge eventually expands far enough east that we eventually get in on the warmer weather again. NBM probability of 90 degree heat increases to about 30 percent by Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1036 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Mainly VFR flight conditions are expected through the TAF period at all local terminals as a dry cold front drops through the area during the morning hours and causes winds to shift to out of the north-northwest. There is a threat of fog at KSUS, but the front's passage may mitigate this. If fog does develop, dry air and the wind shift with the front will help quickly dissipate it by around sunrise. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kimble LONG TERM...Kimble AVIATION...Elmore  573 FXUS64 KAMA 220338 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1038 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 932 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Summer heat wave continues will highs near or above 100 through at least early next week with few exceptions. - Low chance (10-20%) for isolated to widely scattered afternoon & evening storms this weekend, with slightly higher chances each evening next week. .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A section of the monsoon moisture plume remains parked across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles which has helped storm production each afternoon even while under large scale high pressure. This will remain the case for today as ~598 dam 500mb high pressure continues its dominance over the southern high plains leading to another day of very hot temperatures. However, similar to the last couple days, an outflow boundary and potentially even and MCV may be moving southeast from KS/CO later this morning, in addition to an MCS further east in KS eventually moving into OK. The early signs of these features can already be seen with convection firing near Scottsbluff NE and another area of storms east of Colorado Springs to near Lamar, CO. How these convective feature evolve overnight (along with their outflows) will largely determine how warm the Panhandles will get today and what areas may have additional rounds of storms this afternoon. The latest high resolution models, including the LPMM of the HREF and latest run of the RRFS, suggest an outflow boundary will "back" into the area from the east northeast and eventually help fire off some storms in the far southern TX Panhandle. However, some recent models are hinting at the development of an MCV which could clip our northeast zones later this morning, and potentially leave us high and dry later today if we end up on the subsident side. Thus, there are a lot of "flys in the ointment" so to speak, and this applies for both storm chances and temperatures. If the outflow boundary is sufficiently strong, northeast zones could stay in the 90s today, and our advisory areas may be limited to the far southeast and south central counties. With so many CAMs agreeing with the general evolution of this boundary, have kept the advisory confined to the far south, and have nudged temperatures down towards some of the cooler HREF members. Again, the key will be to closely monitor the convective features coming out of CO and KS/OK. Any storms that do get going later today should have a similar marginal MLCAPE (750-1000 J/kg) low shear environment to work with, with shear increasing further to the east into OK (more under the stronger northwest flow aloft). Soundings will be inverted-V with large DCAPE. Thus, any storms in our area should be single cell with some merging clusters and a low wind threat with the strongest storms or any storms that manage to move faster than a snails pace (which isn't likely based on weak wind profile). Sunday should be very similar to Saturday as far as the overall synoptic pattern goes (high pressure dominating with Theta-E plume in place). Some areas will probably see isolated to scattered storms once again, but exactly where will depend a lot on what happens on Saturday and where our boundaries end up. It does look like the wind could be a little more breezy in the west, so elevated fire weather will be more of a concern. Some areas will likely need heat headlines, especially east and central zones. Ward && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Latest medium and long term ensembles continue to suggest that our high pressure will start shifting west slightly Monday into Wednesday. This will allow shortwave disturbances to cross into the area on northwest flow aloft, and provide more chances for evening and overnight storms, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures also may drop at least for a day or two next week partially due to the increased cloud cover, but also just in response to height falls and being remove from the high pressure center. Unfortunately, it looks like the high does try to squeeze back to the east late week into next weekend, so chances are we will see at least a few more days of widespread 100-105 degree heat to finish off August. Hopefully early September will see the demise of our high pressure, as some longer range ensemble members are suggesting. Ward && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Main concern will continue to be the low end storm chances which currently favor KAMA Saturday afternoon. Currently chances are too low to include TS mention, but outflow from convection moving through CO and KS and OK later this morning will result in a wind shift potentially at all sites later today depending on strength and timing of said outflow. This is also the feature that may trigger new storms across the southern terminal later this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions should remain with light southerly or variable winds. Ward && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ018>020-317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...07  679 FXUS63 KGLD 220341 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 941 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 1 AM MDT, 2 AM CDT Saturday morning for Yuma and Kit Carson counties in CO, Dundy County in NE and Cheyenne and Sherman counties in KS. Isolated severe storms capable of producing 75 mph wind gusts and tennis ball size hail are possible. - Weekend precipitation chances mainly at night with showers and storms moving out of Colorado. Severe chances will be low with this activity. - Heat peaks today, then slightly cooler over the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 SVR Watch 613 is in effect for a limited portion of the area (west and north of Goodland) until 07Z. Radar/observational trends suggest that severe weather potential in the watch area may largely be tied to a long-lived supercell currently (at 03Z) progressing southward from the Nebraska Panhandle into northeast Colorado. Right-mover motion this evening is from the NNE. From a persistence standpoint, -if- the aforementioned supercell remains discrete, it's present course suggests that it would remain west of Yuma and Kit Carson counties in CO.. and that severe weather potential in the Goodland CWA may be contingent upon additional convective development. In a weak forcing regime, additional convective development will likely be a function of mesoscale forcing, e.g. an MCV emanating from ongoing long-lived convection. Bottom line, there is very low confidence in convective development/evolution over the next several hours. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1230 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Northwest flow continues today around a ridge centered near the Four Corners. Weak to moderate instability is building in the area with 40-50 kts of deep layer shear. Models have struggled in this pattern with the convection, and will probably do so once again today, with a wide range of solutions offered by the 12z CAMs. They are missing some of the mesoscale features which ultimately play an important role, such as the outflow boundary which is moving through areas north of I-70 originating from morning convection in Nebraska. While confidence is low in the details, generally expect to see isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms develop this afternoon north of Interstate 70. A supercell will be possible given the environmental parameters, capable of large hail, damaging winds and a brief tornado. Another cluster of storms may move across the area this evening, originating in southeast Wyoming and sustained by a strengthening low level jet. If those storms develop and cluster, may see another risk of damaging winds similar to last night. Overnight, the low level jet remains active with isentropic lift maximized over eastern parts of the area (east of Highway 25). May see elevated storms develop late near or just east of the area with a marginal wind and hail threat as MUCAPE lingers at 1000-1500 j/kg. Outflow from those storms will push a cold front through the area around 12z with winds shifting to the east and briefly gusty. May see patchy fog develop along the leading edge of the front as well, mainly in the Colorado/Kansas border area, but it would be transient. On Saturday the upper ridge axis will run from eastern Wyoming and Colorado to the Texas panhandle. Convection will develop in the afternoon over the Rockies and Front Range with the southwest flow, then move across the eastern plains and spreading into the area Saturday night. With the later arrival, probably not until after 03z, storms will be weakening but may still pose a marginal risk for damaging wind gusts as they make their way across the area through the overnight. The ridge flattens out on Sunday and extends from the Four Corners to the Texas panhandle. Zonal flow over the top through northern Colorado will initiate convection over the mountains and Front Range, and once again make the trek across the plains and into the area Sunday night. These will arrive slightly earlier, 00-02z, in far northeast Colorado and may still pose a marginal wind and hail threat, but with only weak instability forecast and deep layer shear around 20 kts, severe chances will be low. Storms will gradually weaken as they move east into the remainder of the area Sunday evening. The ridge strengthens a bit on Monday with height rises in Colorado, and the zonal flow is through southern Wyoming. Forecast instability is weak and generally less than 1000 j/kg, though deep layer shear does increase to around 40 kts. RFS suggests a few scattered storms developing, moving east and then southeast with the mean flow Monday afternoon and evening in areas generally north of Interstate 70 with perhaps a marginal risk for wind and hail. The temperature trend for the period will be near to slightly above normal through the weekend, then above normal on Monday with temperatures currently forecast in the mid to upper 90s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 202 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Synoptically, a ridge is forecast to be over the SW CONUS and currently looks to remain relatively stationary. Throughout the week, there appears to be a few shortwaves moving though the CWA, which may bring higher precipitation chances. High temperatures for the week are forecast to be in the 90s for the majority of the area. The "coolest" day for the period looks to be Wednesday, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s, whereas Friday looks to be the hottest with highs in the mid 90s. If the ridge begins to amplify or move eastward, as guidance hints, higher temperatures could be seen. Winds throughout the week are forecast to be calm to breezy, and relative humidity values are expected to be higher than 30%, which should help minimize fire weather concerns. Precipitation chances are present during the week. As some shortwaves move around the high, they will likely to be our main precipitation producers. The day currently with the highest precipitation chances is Tuesday. Guidance hints at some vorticity associated with the shortwave as it moves through Tuesday afternoon. Both CAPE and shear appear sufficient for severe storms; however, some guidance indicates a mismatch between higher/lower CAPE and lower/higher shear, which could lead to less organized storms. Looking at qpf, some guidance shows the possibility of heavy rainfall with these storms, which is something to keep in mind as we get closer to Tuesday. The rest of the week there is roughly a 15-30% chance of PoPs as various shortwaves move through the region. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 432 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will develop through this evening, with low probabilities of directly impacting either KGLD or KMCK. Tonight, some modest increase in coverage may increase the chances of a thunderstorm with brief gusty winds and reductions in visibility due to rain. Overnight, a cold front will move through around 12z with surface winds shifting to the east. The front may result in patchy fog and a period of low clouds, mainly at KGLD, through early Saturday morning. A return to VFR is expected by mid morning. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Vincent SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...Holdren AVIATION...024  690 FXUS64 KLUB 220342 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1042 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1040 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Hot temperatures continue into next week. - Isolated thunderstorms possible Saturday evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A strong upper ridge will continue to persist across the area. Mild overnight lows in the 70s remain expected. Subtle height rises will allow for temperatures to increase even further Saturday and the Heat Advisory has been expected to include Lubbock. A weak shortwave will move over the area by evening. Best chances look to be generally east of I-27 where greatest forcing will occur, however a stray storm could occur anywhere. Again, brief locally strong gusts and downpours would be the main concern. These should taper off by late-evening with another quiet and mild evening thereafter. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 The aforementioned upper ridge will essentially stall in place for the next several days and very little change to the forecast is expected. Heat Advisory conditions look to continue the weekend along and east of I-27 and well into next week for areas off the Caprock. Storm chances should remain minimal, but may return by mid-to-late next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 602 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Thunderstorms are currently developing between KPVW and KCDS. Very small chance for storms to develop around any terminal, therefore have left out of TAF. Although these storms are expected to remain sub-severe, could see some erratic strong wind gusts. Light southerly winds will continue through the evening. Winds will gradually shift to the west by early Saturday morning. Winds will vary between west to southwest Saturday afternoon. Another round of thunderstorms will be possible Saturday evening, especially around KCDS. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ024>026- 030>032-035>038-041>044. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...10  756 FXUS63 KDMX 220344 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1044 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal (Level 1 of 5) Risk for severe weather across southern Iowa. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. - Fairly consistent highs through midweek next week, ranging from the 70s to low 80s across Iowa. - Dry through the weekend, precipitation chances return Sunday night into Monday and at times next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A cold front is currently making its way across Iowa this afternoon and evening. In front of it, a field of diurnal cumulus has formed. There are low expectations with this cumulus field as far as precipitation chances go today. As far as the environment across Iowa goes, MLCAPE values are in the neighborhood 2500J/kg across central and eastern Iowa with little in the way of CIN. Shear in northwest Iowa is decent - around 30 kts - and guidance suggests weak forcing is available in the northwestern portion of the area. That said, dry air has been pushing its way into the state through the day and there is very little in the way of moisture return which limits the potential for convection. Similarly, across southern Iowa which has been outlined by a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) Risk for severe weather today, CAPE (around 2500J/kg) and shear (35-40kts) would indicate some amount of severe weather potential, but with dry air pushing in and very little in the way of forcing, the threat for severe weather looks highly conditional. Should the boundary provide enough forcing for an updraft to organize, there's still potential for it to produce large hail and damaging winds. Otherwise, overnight precipitation chances diminish even further as the aforementioned dry air continues to be advected in from the north. This dry air is being advected by a high pressure system, which will sink into the area on Saturday. This high pressure indicates fair weather and clear skies for the weekend. Continued northwesterly flow means temperatures will remain just below normal. Keeping with this trend, skies will remain clear Saturday night and through part of Sunday before moisture builds back into western Iowa. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Iowa remains seated between a ridge centered over the Four Corners region and a trough over the Great Lakes. If either of these systems shift, that will change how far east or west moisture gets back into the area by Sunday night, which is when the next shortwave looks to move through, potentially bringing more precipitation chances into Sunday morning. At the moment, however, deterministic guidance is still struggling with the timing of this system. With this comes some degree of disagreement with placement, all of which will be better assessed in the coming days. This upper level pattern looks to remain rather stagnant, with the potential for additional shortwaves to move through the region next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1039 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Skies are clear for the most part across the state except for some lingering smoke aloft. This may continue into tomorrow but is not expected to be impactful. Some patchy fog development remains possible tonight, particularly at KOTM, but given the extra breeze behind the front and dry air advection, seems unlikely at this point. Cumulus may develop at KDSM/KOTM terminals tomorrow but will likely stay VFR. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM...67 AVIATION...De Bruin  774 FXUS63 KPAH 220345 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1045 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Daily thunderstorm chances of 15 to 30% are forecast during the afternoon and evening hours Monday through Wednesday. - Temperature and humidity levels will be near typical late August levels through the next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Broad troughing is centered to our east and northeast putting the area in a moderate northwesterly flow aloft. A jet max works in on the backside of this trough through Sunday morning keeping it roughly in place. There is a small window for thundershowers across parts of SEMO Saturday afternoon but the chances are low (15%). By Monday that trough works east far enough to allow the heat and humidity to start to creep back into the area. This opens the potential again for daily mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms with fairly low coverage overall (15-30%). The best chance for activity for now looks to be Wednesday afternoon and evening when a little sharper shortwave pushes through. If any severe weather threat is to emerge in the next 7 days it looks like this could be the period. If the trough position and shear/instability remain consistent we might be able to start messaging a threat, but for now it appears too low predictability/threat for much concern. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1042 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR conditions are expected through much of this TAF issuance; however, some shallow ground fog will be possible late tonight into Saturday morning at CGI/PAH. Otherwise, light winds and improving conditions can be expected through the day Saturday. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...KC  968 FXUS64 KBRO 220347 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1047 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1038 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Hot and rain-free conditions will continue through late next week. - Moderate (level 2 of 4) to major risk (3 of 4) of heat-relatedimpacts through the period with peak afternoon heat indices generally between 105 to around 110 degrees. - The combination of low minimum relativity humidity values, dry fuels, and very hot temperatures could lead to the potential for rapid wildfire spread through the period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1038 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A 500 mb ridge will meander over the Four Corners region through the middle of next week. This will continue to provide strong subsidence across Deep South Texas with very hot and mainly rain-free conditions through forecast period. Daily high temperatures are expected to reach the upper 90s to around 105 degrees, except near the coast. The combination of the very hot temperatures and elevated dewpoint temperatures will support heat indices generally between 105 to 110 degrees each afternoon. Heat indices may briefly reach 111+ at a few locations in the afternoon, but temperatures should remain just below Heat Advisory criteria each day. Widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) to Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk expected through the weekend and into the middle of next week. Some pockets of Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk will be possible by late next week. The combination of low minimum relativity humidity values, dry fuels, and very hot temperatures could lead to the potential for rapid wildfire spread through the period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 629 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Southeast winds 15 to 20 kts with gusts around 25 kts prevail across Deep South Texas early this evening. Winds are expected to decrease later this evening and overnight. Southeast winds will increase and become moderate and gusty mid to late morning. Some gusts up to 25 knots will be possible in the afternoon. VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1038 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A slightly enhanced pressure gradient over the western Gulf may produce Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions on the Laguna Madre at times. Otherwise, mariners can expect generally favorable conditions with moderate south to southeast winds and seas of 2 to 3 feet through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 98 80 99 79 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 102 76 104 75 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 104 79 105 78 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 105 77 105 76 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 90 81 90 80 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 97 78 98 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...63-KC LONG TERM....63-KC AVIATION...63-KC  884 FXUS65 KPIH 220345 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 945 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisories Active Today: Heat Advisories remain in effect through this evening across lower elevations, where peak afternoon temperatures will reach the mid-90s to lower 100s. - Severe Microburst Risk Tonight (45–65 mph Gusts): Monsoonal moisture surging into deeply dry lower atmospheric layers (inverted-V profiles) will support evening and overnight thunderstorms capable of producing localized severe dry microburst wind gusts of 45 to 65 mph, especially across the lower Snake Plain, Magic Valley, and South Hills. - Widespread Saturday Storms & Fire Concerns: Convective coverage increases markedly on Saturday, introducing heightened fire weather concerns from lightning and erratic outflow winds before the main trough exits into Western Canada on Sunday. - Seasonable Late-August Trend Next Week: A modest ridge rebuilds next week, maintaining isolated afternoon monsoonal storm chances and near-normal temperatures in the mid-to-upper 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 134 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Unseasonably hot conditions continue across eastern Idaho this afternoon, with widespread lower-elevation Heat Advisories remaining active through this evening. Temperatures have climbed rapidly into the lower 90s and are on track to top out in the mid-90s, with localized readings exceeding 100°F across the lower Snake Plain and Magic Valley prior to peak heating. Mostly sunny skies will give way to increasing cloudiness late this afternoon and evening as a plume of monsoonal moisture surges northward through the Great Basin ahead of an upper-level trough entering the Pacific Northwest. High-resolution convective-allowing models (CAMs) continue to advertise elevated shower and thunderstorm development beginning this evening and lingering into the early overnight hours. Forecast soundings reveal deeply inverted-V thermal profiles across the lower boundary layer, creating an environment highly efficient at generating strong convective downdrafts. Stronger storms tonight will be capable of producing localized microburst wind gusts of 45 to 65 mph, with the highest threat centered across the lower Snake Plain, Magic Valley, and South Hills. Nocturnal showers and embedded storms will persist through the first half of the overnight period. Following a brief early-morning lull, a more widespread wave of showers and thunderstorms will overspread eastern Idaho on Saturday. The combination of widespread lightning strikes and gusty, erratic outflow winds will introduce elevated fire weather concerns across dry fuel beds. As the primary upper- level trough pushes northeastward into Western Canada on Sunday, large-scale forcing will wane, restricting lingering shower and thunderstorm chances primarily to the higher terrain. Subtropical high pressure over the Four Corners will slowly attempt to rebuild toward the Great Basin early next week. However, the ambient upper-level flow pattern will remain favorable for sending weak, periodic pushes of monsoonal moisture into the Intermountain West. This will maintain at least isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances through mid-week. Because 500mb heights are forecast to remain modest, extreme heat is not expected to return next week. Daytime maximum temperatures will hold right around seasonal climatological norms for late August, topping out in the mid-to- upper 80s across lower elevations with only isolated spots briefly reaching 90°F. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 945 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Quite a bit of mostly showers with isolated thunderstorms working up from the south. A rogue gust to 30kts is possible overnight, but probably not very likely. Convection should clear around 12z with next round of storms expected during the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 134 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Monsoon moisture is beginning to work its way back into Eastern Idaho today and will continue through this weekend. Isolated storms will begin to pop up across the area this afternoon and activity becomes a bit more widespread overnight, though how much lightning will continue into tonight is a bit more uncertain. Strong wind gusts to 60 mph will be the main concern with storms today and again tomorrow with portions of the area under a Marginal Risk for severe storms both days. As thunderstorms begin to fire on Saturday afternoon, coverage will also increase, so a RED FLAG WARNING has been issued for Fire Weather Zones 410, 422, 425, 427, 475, and 476 due to the scattered coverage. These will be a mix of wet and dry storms with some of the drier storms more likely up in the Central Mountains and storms becoming wetter farther east. This is also part of the reason for leaving FWZ 411 and 413 out of the RFW. Coverage in those two zones will be isolated to nearly scattered at times. Heading into Sunday, it will be breezy with wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph and min RHs still in the 15 to 20 percent range in the Central Mountains, so near-critical fire weather conditions will exist there again, but min RHs elsewhere will range from 20 to 30 percent. We will still see some isolated to nearly scattered thunderstorms on Sunday, too. In fact, this monsoon moisture will continue each afternoon through at least the first half of next week. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 10 PM MDT this evening for IDZ051>059-061- 062-064-065-067-075. Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Saturday for IDZ410-422- 425-427-475-476. && $$ DISCUSSION...McKaughan AVIATION...13 FIRE WEATHER...Messick  211 FXUS66 KLOX 220356 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 856 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .SYNOPSIS...21/745 PM. Minimal changes expected through the weekend with above normal temperatures. Patchy night and morning low clouds and fog will be confined to coastal areas. Additional warming is possible during the middle of next week as high pressure builds in from the southeast. && .SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...21/850 PM. ***UPDATE*** Few changes are expected through the weekend, with temperatures above normal by several degrees each day. Combined with warm overnight lows and some monsoonal moisture at mid to upper levels, conditions will continue to feel uncomfortably warm. Breezy winds are expected at times, with northerly Sundowner winds along the Santa Barbara Southwest coast and foothills, and gusty onshore winds over interior sections. Today's highs were between 95 to 105 across the valleys and interior, with 70s to 80s along the coast. The inland coastal areas warmed compared to yesterday, in the 80s to mid 90s. Downtown LA had a daily record high of 96 degrees, previously set in 1891. Tomorrow expect fairly similar highs, with differences of plus or minus a couple of degrees likely. While the hottest areas are not quite widespread enough to warrant a Heat Advisory, some locations (Woodland Hills, for example) will reach the criteria at around 105 degrees. Caution is still advised for those working or recreating outdoors during the daytime. Onshore (Southwest) winds are gusting around 20 to 30 mph over the far interior, including Antelope Valley. Along the SBA southwest coast, gusts are 25 to 35 mph. The peak gusts may increase close to 40 mph over the next few hours before decreasing later this evening. As for the monsoonal moisture flowing over the area from the southeast, the NAM12 shows the tap drying up Saturday afternoon so the shower chances are now below 10 percent and only for the eastern LA County mountains. .LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...21/156 PM. High pressure is expected to build back into California starting next Tuesday while at the same time pressure gradients from the north and east weaken. With high temperatures already on the verge of advisories and warnings through early next week, the next burst of heat Tuesday and beyond has at least a 40-60% chance pushing that over the edge to at least heat advisory levels and possibly into warning level, particularly inland areas. How widespread the heat hazards are will be largely be determined by the pressure gradients. If the gradients trend towards the 75th percentile or higher, which roughly would be around -3mb LAX-DAG and -4mb LAX-BFL, temperatures would on the higher side with numerous excessive heat warnings likely. If gradients have less of an offshore component per the latest GFS then temperatures will still be hot but at least a few degrees cooler. The latter scenario being the most likely outcome. At this time not seeing any big subtropical push next week, though there is minor peak in PW's on Tuesday and early Wednesday at around 1.2". && .AVIATION...21/2303Z. At 2216Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 600 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 1900 feet with a temperature of 30 C. High confidence in VFR TAF for sites: KPRB, KSBA, KVNY, KBUR, KPMD, KWJF. Chances for LIFR/IFR ceilings tonight at KSBP (80%) KSMX (100%) KOXR (10%) KCMA (20%). Chances for IFR/MVFR ceilings tonight at KSMO (15%) KLAX (20%) KLGB (20%). KLAX...High confidence in VFR TAF. Except 22/10-16Z which has a 20% chance of BKN008-012. No significant east wind component is expected. KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF. No wind issues expected. && .MARINE...21/755 PM. High risk of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions continuingover the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island through Saturday night, lowering to moderate for Sunday and Monday. There is a moderate risk for the nearshore Central Coast waters each afternoon and evening through Saturday, lowering for Sunday and Monday. Elsewhere, the risk for SCA is low, with seasonal winds likely. Chances for SCA conditions will likely increase again including some nearshore waters by Wednesday. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 AM PDT Saturday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon Saturday to 2 AM PDT Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT Sunday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Monday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Ciliberti/MW AVIATION...Black MARINE...RK/DB SYNOPSIS...MW/Ciliberti weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox