383 FXUS63 KEAX 220400 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1100 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...06z Aviation Discussion Update... .KEY MESSAGES... * Low confidence forecast tonight with scattered showers and thunderstorms across central into eastern Kansas. Stronger storms would be capable of producing damaging winds and possibly large hail. * Cooler and drier conditions Saturday into Sunday, with periodic storm chances returning as early as Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 18Z sounding from OAX shows steep mid level lapse rates from 700-500 mb leading to elevated instability. Dry layer below 600 mb leading to reservoir of downdraft CAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Cluster of storms that developed in north central Nebraska has somewhat maintained their strength working to the southeast toward the I-80 corridor. Low confidence forecast for tonight as back door cold front associated with low pressure center near the Great Lakes slides south. Instability is largely controlled by the lifting level, but if we are able to get a near surface based storm, there would be enough instability (3000-3500 J/kg) to create the potential for large hail especially with 40-45 knots of effective shear. If storms remain more elevated, the greatest severe threat would be damaging winds owing to the dry air below 600 mb. Models offer a variety of solutions with these storms this evening. It appears the atmosphere is at least weakly capped (cin 50-100 J/kg) across northwest Missouri, with an increasing cap farther south. It is unclear have long the storms would be able to maintain themselves, but some solutions suggest storms trying to build southeast through the evening hours along and west of the Missouri River Valley. Lee troughing across eastern Colorado is expected to become better organized tonight into a weak low pressure center that develops in western Kansas. A weak low level jet extending from central Oklahoma through central KS into western Nebraska is expected to lead to strong theate-e advection and additional thunderstorm development tonight. These storms are expected to move southeast overnight in northwest flow aloft building into central and eastern KS overnight. It appears these storms may primarily remain west of the forecast area, but eastern KS into far western Missouri may get brushed by any activity with the potential of large hail and damaging winds with any storm that is able to sustain itself this far east. Cooler and drier conditions are expected to build south across the region Saturday and continue into Sunday as Canadian high pressure noses into the region. Long standing ridge across the western US has periodic ridge riders that may lead to periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms. The first wave moves through the region Sunday night, with additional storms possible Wednesday morning. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1054 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Predominantly VFR conditions are expected to prevail, but have introduced PROB30s for potential shower activity around/after 12z Saturday. Prior to that potential, light and variable winds will prevail across the TAF sites and eventually yield a more prevailing NE direction. Model/CAM guidance continues to keep much of the shower/storm activity west of the terminals, but there is enough of a hint of potential to introduce PROB30 mentions with this iteration. At this time, have kept thunder mentions out with much of the depicted activity rooted quite high and with limited instability. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BT AVIATION...Curtis  570 FXUS63 KDDC 220403 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1103 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued hot temperatures this weekend - A storm complex is possible across NW/N Kansas late tonight, however, the rest of the FA should remain dry - Better thunderstorm chances next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1111 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Today should be generally hot and dry. Highs should be mainly in the 90s, although a few 100s will be possible along the Oklahoma border. Some of the CAMs should storms developing across the High Plains late tonight and moving across NW/N Kansas during the overnight hours to early morning hours. The highest pops will be confined to just the northern zones to account for this possibility. Otherwise, the rest of the FA will likely remain dry and storm-free. Lows will be mainly in the 60s tonight, with a few 70s near Medicine Lodge. Much of the same weather will continue Sunday with hot highs, warm lows, and perhaps an isolated storm or two. The mid-level ridge will start to sink southward across New Mexico by middle portion of next week. This will allow storms to develop across the High Plains and propagate SE towards western Kansas though several days of next week. Therefore, there is some good news that we could see more storm opportunities more needed rainfall next week. Highs will remain seasonably warm with values peaking in the 90s. Lows will be in the mix of 60s to 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1111 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR is expected through TAF pd. There could be a thunderstorm complex that could impact northern Kansas late tonight. Confidence though is not high enough to insert in the KHYS TAF for now. Otherwise, winds will be NE to SE but generally light in magnitude. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sugden AVIATION...Sugden  621 FXUS63 KOAX 220404 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1104 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - More storms may develop west of a Neligh to Wahoo to Nemaha line (20-40% chance) after midnight. - Storms clear late Saturday morning leaving a pleasant day. - Periodic storm chances continue into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1105 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Hey, I did sfc analysis by hand tonight! It reveals a stalled front draped from near Clarinda, through the Omaha metro, to Albion and continuing west. Widely isolated showers continue across the area this evening, but severe weather never did materialize here despite the conditional threat earlier today. The atmosphere had the buoyancy and shear available, but due to cloud cover, initiation didn't happen in Nebraska. A few light showers lingered past sunset in far southwest Iowa along an elevated front. Expect the mostly dry conditions may be interrupted by redevelopment around 2:00 AM as a H5 shortwave pushes southeast through central Nebraska. Elevated CAPE peaks only at about 1,000 J/kg and effective shear values will be nerfed after the subtraction of the boundary layer (50 kts end up closer to 25 knots). The LLJ is weak and pointed farther west than usual. The 22Z SSCRAM suggests less than a 5% chance of severe hail or wind overnight. That might be a little low, but it's got the right idea. Have PoPs peaking near 30% at 6am in the SW 1/4th of the CWA before wrapping up by 9AM. Omaha, Norfolk, and points north and east should remain dry. .SATURDAY... The remainder of Saturday will be dry with sunny skies by noon. As the sfc pressure axis pushes through, light northerly winds will slowly become easterly by midnight. It'll be a great day to get some yard work done. Darn it. .SUNDAY... PoPs 45% (west) return on Sunday with a shortwave rounding the H5 ridge. Most will remain dry, but with the associated cloud cover, temps will slip by about 5 degrees. PoPs 40% (south) to 70% (north) climb higher after midnight, when 00Z guidance suggests a convective complex pushes through SD in the evening and into eastern Nebraska / western Iowa before sunrise Monday morning. .NEXT WEEK... The busy pattern continues. To date, OAX has issued its fourth most t-storm warnings this year (PoR 1986). Transient ridging ahead of a cutoff low traversing the Prairie provinces allows temps to climb a bit for Monday and Tuesday. That low's attendant cold front pushes through on Tuesday afternoon. This will bring another 40% chance of overnight thunderstorms thanks to the stalled front and isentropic upglide provided by the LLJ. 12Z global models suggest regular chance of precip and thunder through the work week as the area remains on the periphery of the southern high pressure dome. Looking for some change to hang your hopes on? All three deterministic global models develop zonal flow by next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 552 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the period as drier weather builds into the area. Expect a 20-40% chance of thunderstorms in the vicinity of KLNK overnight tonight. Have added VCTS from 5am to 8am there. Hope to have a better idea of timing and likelihood with 06Z issuance. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...Nicolaisen  812 FXUS63 KDTX 220408 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1208 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -There is a Marginal/Isolated risk of strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. - Breezy and cooler conditions arrive Sunday with a lingering chance for showers. - Dry weather with slightly below normal temperatures start off the week on Monday. && .AVIATION... Predominately VFR ceilings through the early morning hours as increased moisture supports higher coverage of mid/high clouds while winds hold out of the S to SE. There remains low potential for stray rain showers through the early morning hours, but coverage remains low enough to preclude mention through remainder of tonight. Better chance resides across FNT/MBS during the mid to late morning hours. Cold front mid-day will bring widespread coverage of showers with scattered thunderstorms along with potential for MVFR ceilings with the passage of the front. Winds become westerly by the afternoon and increase up to around 10 knots then becoming northwesterly in the evening. D21/DTW Convection... Very limited chance for an isolated thunderstorm remainder of tonight and low enough to leave mention out of TAFs. Increasing coverage of convection is expected to occur after noon with the highest probability between 18 and 23z. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Very low for thunderstorms tonight. Moderate after 18z today. * Low for ceilings at or below 5000 ft this morning. Moderate in the afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 DISCUSSION... A couple meso scale vorticity centers apparent on the latest radar/satellite composite which have emerged from earlier convection across eastern Wisconsin will track across southern and central Lower Mi late this afternoon. This added PVA with the advection of a narrow moisture and instability axis into Se Mi will support a chance for convection late this afternoon and evening. Ongoing deep layer moisture and weak elevated instability advection in advance of the longer wavelength inbound trough will sustain chances for convection across the entire forecast area through the night. Cloud cover and boundary layer moisture advection will lead to a milder night in relation to last night with min temps largely in the 60s. Amplification of the longer wavelength trough will persist through the weekend with the main mid level positive vorticity axis forecast to pass across Se Mi during peak daytime heating Saturday. The resident moist axis and diurnal heating will contribute to weak instability by early Saturday afternoon. This will support high chances for showers/thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon. Cloud cover and potential early day showers will limit daytime highs to the 70s. ML CAPE values are therefore forecast to remain at or below 1500 J/kg. This and 0-6km bulk shear values at or below 25 knots will mitigate the severe weather risk. There has been some trends toward a little steeper mid level lapse rates Saturday, which could lead to some higher downdraft CAPE potential warranting an isolated risk for some stronger/severe convection. Mean total forecast QPF values have increased slightly over the last few model cycle, now around 4 tenths of an inch. High end totals (95th percentile) of 1 to 1.25 inches are possible within any slow moving convection. The 12Z model suite has trended toward the evolution of a deeper more closed upper low over the eastern Great Lakes Sunday into Monday resulting from better phasing with secondary mid level PV anomaly dropping down from northern Ontario Sat night. This will drive a respectable thermal trough (850mb temps down to the single digits) across Lower Mi Sunday which now looks to persist into Monday. This will ensure seasonally cool (almost fall-like) temperatures to finish the weekend and start the new week. Steep low level lapse rates and moisture flux off the Great Lakes will contribute to ample cloud cover Sunday. This secondary short wave/positive PV anomaly is now forecast to brush across Se Mi Sun afternoon. Despite an overall lack of deep layer moisture, this wave may allow a brief uptick in convective cloud depth, offering at least a chance for some afternoon showers. A progressive northern stream wave is forecast to bring the next chance for showers/thunderstorms mid week (Wed/Thurs time frame). Ensemble members still show a fair amount of spread among timing and precip chances with this system . MARINE... The departure of high pressure into the Continental northeast will allow winds across the Great Lakes to back to the southwest this afternoon with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances building in across northern Lake Huron ahead of the next cold front. The cold front will progress across the Great Lakes through tomorrow morning and afternoon, expanding rain and thunderstorm chances across the remainder of the forecasted area. Winds will continue to veer to the northwest in the wake of the passing front, and will increase in intensity and remain elevated through Sunday as cooler is ushered in. Wind gusts will likely range around 25 to 30 knots through the weekend. The switch in wind direction from the northwest will quickly build wave heights in and around the Thumb which will likely result in the issuance of Small Craft Advisories by Sunday morning. High pressure builds back in Monday and Tuesday which will bring about lighter winds. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....AA DISCUSSION...SC MARINE.......AM You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  792 FXUS64 KTSA 220408 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1108 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1058 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Hot to very hot conditions will continue for the next week, with the only exceptions being around active thunderstorm activity. - Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected through Monday, bringing areas of locally heavy rain and strong gusty winds, but most areas will see only minimal rainfall. - Areas of localized fire weather concerns will persist. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 An upper level shortwave will pass through the area late tonight into mid morning, bringing another round of elevated showers and storms. These storms may result in locally heavy rainfall, but most areas will only see minimal precipitation. In fact, the storms that will impact the area later are already present in Nebraska. CAMs match the radar presentation reasonably well, but are too dry across central Kansas where additional storms have formed. This may matter because the 00z CAMs confine the majority of the storm activity to central Oklahoma. If storms get going further to the east that would be very relevant for the eventual outcome. Suffice it to say, uncertainty is fairly high for exactly where storms move in Saturday morning. Either way, the dry lower boundary layer will favor gusty winds, with a marginal (5 percent) chance for severe winds near stronger storms. Temperatures will be tricky Saturday considering the timing of the storms. Areas away from convective activity will again be in the upper 90s to near 100 F, but rain cooled areas may see a cooler day in the lower 90s. Will let the day shift decide on any heat products based on how storm activity evolves. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 The upper level ridge will remain nearly stationary to the west of the area for the next few days. Temperatures should be mostly in the mid 90s in the north, but warmer in the south near 100 F. Behind some storm activity Monday morning (see below), model guidance rapidly increases temperatures as downslope southwest flow develops. Monday or Tuesday may be the warmest days this week, with some slight cooling mid week in response to a grazing distant trough in the Midwest. Even so, it'll stay plenty hot, with mid 90s to low 100s to close out the week. The displaced center of high pressure will keep somewhat enhanced mid level flow and periodic shortwaves moving through for the next few days. The current favored timing for the next such shortwave will be later Sunday into Monday morning. Model guidance remains on the weaker side, but there could be a narrow corridor of decent rainfall wherever storms set up. The dry boundary layer will continue to support strong gusty winds as well. The same general pattern will remain in place through next week, but as the ridge gradually flexes into the area shower activity will gradually become more isolated. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Few to broken high clouds are anticipated into the overnight hours before increasing mid and high clouds develop late tonight into Saturday. During the day Saturday scattered to overcast mid and high clouds are forecast with the potential for a MCS to drop south/southeast through the CWA. Uncertainties remain with timing, thus will continue Prob30 groups for general timing of greater potential. Also, there remains a low potential for storms early morning Saturday for parts of northeast Oklahoma. Will also hold onto a Prob30 window for this activity as well, though the greater potential is with the MCS. Withinany convection, brief heavy rains, strong wind gusts and possibly brief MVFR conditions could develop. Behind the exiting MCS, cloud cover looks to become more scattered high clouds. Winds through the period remain light/variable outside of the convection. Also, VFR conditions are forecast outside of any convection. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 75 97 74 97 / 20 40 10 10 FSM 75 101 74 99 / 10 30 20 20 MLC 75 101 73 103 / 20 30 20 10 BVO 70 96 69 95 / 30 40 10 20 FYV 72 96 68 94 / 0 50 20 20 BYV 73 94 69 92 / 0 50 20 20 MKO 72 97 71 97 / 20 40 10 10 MIO 73 95 70 93 / 20 50 10 20 F10 73 98 72 99 / 20 30 10 10 HHW 75 101 74 102 / 10 20 20 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...20  397 FXUS65 KGJT 220418 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1018 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Monsoonal moisture will cause precipitation chances to become more widespread Saturday. - Heavier rainfall Saturday could lead to localized flash flooding over burn scars and susceptible terrain. - Temperatures gradually cool off for the weekend and into next week but still remains above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1014 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 COOLER & WETTER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND: High pressure will continue to be centered over our region through the weekend. Clockwise flow around this system will favor moisture advection into our CWA. Hence, precipitation chances will become more widespread Saturday under dominant southwesterly flow. Deterministic models are hinting at PWATs at 150-180% of normal during this time period. Storms are expected to favor the higher terrain initially, but adjacent valleys could also get in on the action as storms begin to move off the terrain. Models also seem to be hinting at a shortwave disturbing the driving flow Saturday, which would mean additional lift in an already saturated environment. This will subsequently increase flash flooding and debris flow concerns. Continue to be weather aware and have multiple ways to receive watches and warnings. Afternoon storm chances will be around Sunday as well while the increased atmospheric moisture remains in place. However, storm chances will be mostly confined to the higher terrain as no additional lift is anticipated from synoptic forcing. With that being said, flash flooding and debris flow concerns persist through at least Sunday as localized heavy rainfall remains a possibility. Daytime highs cool by about 5 degrees for the weekend, but still remain above normal for this time of year. NEXT WEEK: The environment continues to be saturated into next week which will keep afternoon thunderstorms in the forecast daily for the higher terrain. It is unclear how precipitation chances will pan out for the lower valleys at the moment. As more HiRes guidance becomes available, we will likely have a better grasp on what's to come. Daytime highs hold steady as we move into next week with most locations seeing similar temperatures as the weekend. These values will still be above normal but not quite into record breaking territory anymore. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 519 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR conditions will likely prevail through the TAF period. Some light rain showers are still ongoing this evening, but will begin to gradually diminish after ~01Z. Gusty outflows have already been observed this evening at some terminals and continue to be a threat with decaying storms. Winds will resume a light and terrain driven pattern by the overnight hours. Saturday will see shower and storm chances beginning around 18/19Z at most terminals. Localized heavy rainfall is possible with storm activity which could have an impact on visibility at certain terminals. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BS AVIATION...TGJT  465 FXUS65 KRIW 220421 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1021 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and isolated storms continue across the southwestern half of the area this evening. Showers will linger across southwestern Wyoming overnight, spreading east of the Divide Saturday morning. - Monsoonal moisture increases on Saturday with more numerous showers and thunderstorms, some may produce heavy rain and local flooding. Marginally severe weather looking more possible in the afternoon across Natrona/Johnson Counties, with damaging winds and small hail the main threats at this time. - Lingering moisture will bring a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms into early next week, with temperatures more seasonable for this time of year pushing towards the end of August. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1245 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Hottest of the afternoon still in progress, bumped up a few spots a couple degrees east of the Divide as it has already warmed past the previous noon forecast. Otherwise, much of the forecast still intact and on schedule. Monsoonal moisture visible on IR pumping up from the south, but more limited and a bit west than it was yesterday currently. This should extend into western parts of the state by mid-afternoon that will spark thunderstorm activity. HiRes models haven't been very reliable the past couple of days missing the morning showers across Johnson County and a bit late on development thus far. PoPs will be adjusted as needed once things kick off, but main concerns (if you want to call it that) is gusty outflows over 40 mph. A rogue storm or two could push down the Wind River Basin between 4-6PM with some of the models picking up on this still, although chances low around 15-20%. Even some isolated storms developing currently near South Pass with slow eastward movement due to weaker steering flow aloft. Not much should come from it but a mere breeze. Otherwise, weekend precipitation looks on track for now but maybe a bit stronger severe weather wise across eastern counties. HiRes models do indicate better instability and stronger multicellular formations across Natrona to Johnson County during the afternoon and early evening hours. Even though SPC pulled the Marginal further east, this should be back in place east of the Bighorns by Saturday morning if not having a slight closer to the eastern parts of the CWA. Stay tuned for updates overnight into early Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 We are now returning to my favorite (note sarcasm, this is by far the thing I hate the most about the weather around here) thing to forecast, the monsoon. And, the models are off to a bad start. We have some showers across northern Wyoming that none of the models had. So, they are 0 for 1 right now. And this isn't baseball where batting .300 makes you an all star. Other than these light showers, things are quiet right now, and it should stay this way through the morning. However, we will see another round of isolated showers and thunderstorms today, probably in similar positions to yesterday. Coverage should remain less than 1 out of 3 for all areas though, as some warm air aloft should prevent widespread convection. This is mainly across the western half of the state. Dewpoint depressions remain fairly high and we still have inverted-V soundings, so this will likely be another day of strong wind gusts from any shower or thunderstorm with only light rain. There could be a stray shower further east, but the chance is less than 15 percent so we left the forecast dry. But, let's just say my confidence is not high with how poorly the models handle the monsoon with weak forcing. Some showers will linger through the night across the west as well, but the core of the moisture likely holds off until Saturday. The other story today will be the heat, as temperatures will peak today as 700 millibar temperatures climb to around 20 Celsius. All areas below 6500 feet have at least a 4 out of 5 chance of high temperatures over 90 this afternoon. Areas below 5500 feet have at least a 1 in 2 chance of highs over 95. As for triple digits, it is smaller. However, temperatures have been running higher than guidance so I give it around a 1 in 3 chance in places like Greybull and Worland. The warmest temperatures would be east of the Divide with the lower elevations and more sunshine. The monsoon returns with a vengeance on Saturday. Precipitable water values climb to around 150 to 200 percent of normal across most of the area. We will also have a shortwave moving across the area to bring some additional forcing. The result will be a chance for all areas to see a shower or thunderstorm, but most guidance favors western Wyoming. There is a Marginal risk of Excessive Rainfall across areas west of the Divide as I write this around 1:15 am. This could be expanded east, we will know around 2:30 am. There is some steering flow, especially at 500 millibars, so this should mitigate the flooding threat somewhat but it will be there. Most convection should end by midnight, but some showers will continue after midnight. Confidence on placement of showers Saturday night is very low, as this is where the models have struggled the most with the monsoon. The best chance will be in western Wyoming, but exactly where is still somewhat uncertain. As for temperatures, they will remain very warm east of the Divide where there will be some morning sunshine, but about 5 degrees cooler than Friday. Areas west of the Divide should see a greater drop, with more cloud cover and a greater coverage of showers. And, some storms could become strong. We do have a Marginal risk of severe weather east of the Bighorn Range. It may be a bit overdone, since there is only weak shear. The main threat would be strong wind gusts, like most showers or storms in Wyoming. Monsoonal moisture then looks to stick around into the first part of next week. This will lead to daily chances of mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms each day. Guidance has poor consistency with the details though. So, it is still difficult to nail down details on where the most numerous convection will be each day and timing of the storms. So, we kept things broad brushed for the most part. Temperatures will decrease somewhat with more cloud cover. However, with the mean ridge remaining in place, above normal temperatures should continue into next week. There are some indications that drier air may try to move in toward the end of next week, bringing a return to drier conditions for a few days through the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1015 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Light rain showers will continue over western portions through 12Z. PROB30 groups remain in the forecast at KJAC, KPNA and KBPI. Mountaintop obscurations will be possible through this time. These showers will cross the Divide into the central basins after sunrise Saturday morning, moving toward the northeast. The greatest chance for thunderstorms will occur as this wave crosses the Bighorns and moves over Johnson County by 21Z. Additional showers will be possible across the rest of the area in the afternoon, but confidence has decreased in the threat level. Confidence has shifted to thunderstorms moving over far western portions by 23Z/00Z, quickly spreading eastward through the rest of the period. Have adjusted the timing of PROB30 groups for all TAF sites, accordingly. Wind gusts of 30 to 40kt and marginal VFR conditions continue to be the main threats with the storms. The storms in Johnson and Natrona counties could be strong to severe. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Lowe DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...LaVoie  428 FXUS65 KSLC 220419 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1019 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Monsoonal moisture will continue to spread across Utah and southwest Wyoming through Saturday, bringing an increased threat of thunderstorms that could produce heavy rainfall capable of flash flooding. - Moisture will decrease somewhat Sunday into Monday, with the potential for more substantial drying for at least northern Utah and southwest Wyoming late in the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION...An elongated ridge of high pressure is centered roughly over the Four Corners region this evening. The resultant southerly flow aloft has allowed for monsoon moisture to spread northward across the southern three-quarters of the forecast area. Satellite derived PWs indicate values of 1.0 inch or above for that part of the area, with the moisture continuing to move northward. Embedded shortwave energy in the flow is allowing an area of showers and thunderstorms to continue tonight over central Utah, with the showers continuing to track northward for the remainder of this evening and into the early part of the overnight hours before dissipating. With ample moisture in place tomorrow, will see another round of scattered showers develop during the afternoon. Absent a well defined forcing mechanism, these will be primarily focused over the higher terrain. This will tend to limit the potential for valley convective activity, but would not be surprised to see a few showers pop up away from the terrain. Forcing is expected to be enhanced again during the evening and early overnight hours, this time from a frontal boundary ejecting from a Pacific Northwest storm system. Given the front will be very much outrunning its associated forcing, think associated precipitation will be scattered in nature, primarily focused over northwest Utah. The front is expected to bring a very slight dip in temperatures Sunday or northern portions of the area, bringing highs within 5F of seasonal normals. However, its passage combined with flattening of the ridge as the Pacific Northwest system tracks over the top of it will add a westerly component to the flow aloft, advecting some drier air in through Monday. This does not look to be substantial drying by any means, but there is a high chance of some areas seeing PWs as low as the 0.6 to 0.8 inch range, which could bring minimum relative humidity values back close to critical values for portions of western Utah. This could also act to decrease coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but as we saw earlier this week, there's a good chance that the decrease would not be substantial. Spread in the guidance increase quite a bit for the middle to latter part of the week, putting confidence in the long term forecast a bit lower than usual. For Wednesday into Thursday, another Pacific Northwest trough is expected to move over the top of the Four Corners ridge, and ensembles seem to be struggling with how much the trough interacts with the ridge. Some guidance (the GFS, for example) shows only minor flattening of the ridge, which would keep at least some moisture over most of the area into the upcoming weekend. However, in solutions where the interaction brings more substantial flattening of the ridge (e.g. the latest EC), the more zonal flow would bring more dramatic drying. Will wait and see where things end up landing. && .AVIATION...KSLC...The SLC terminal will see VFR conditions through the night with cigs expected to stay above 6000 ft AGL. An area of showers with a few thunderstorms is expected to move across the terminal beginning between 05Z and 06Z and lasting through the early part of the overnight hours. There is a 40-50 percent chance of gusty and erratic winds as this moves throughand a 10 percent chance of lightning impacting the terminal. Southerly winds are expected to shift to the north tomorrow between 19Z and 21Z with a 20 percent chance of additional showers and thunderstorms impacting the terminal during the afternoon and early evening. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected across the airspace through the overnight hours. An area of showers with a few thunderstorms over central Utah will move across northern portions of the airspace through the first part of the early morning before dissipating. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Saturday afternoon and evening, primarily focused over the higher terrain. Any of these storms will be capable of bringing lightning, brief mountain obscurations, and brief MVFR conditions in heavier rainfall. && .FIRE WEATHER, Issued 145 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026... Hot temperatures remain in place across the area today, with dry conditions expected in northwest and eastern Utah while southwest Utah sees an increase in moisture. With the increase in moisture across the southern half of Utah, afternoon shower and thunderstorm development is expected through the remainder of today with storms bringing potential for wetting rains. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be greatest across central and northern Utah, however, wetting rain potential will decrease north of the US-50/ I-70 corridor. The bigger threat for central and northern Utah will be isolated dry lightning and gusty outflow winds in excess of 35-40 mph. These strong winds and dry surface conditions may bring short-lived critical fire weather conditions. Moisture will continue to push northward on Saturday, bringing improvement to afternoon humidity across the northern and central area while the southern area will see the beginning of a slow drying trend. That said, shower and thunderstorm potential will still be elevated over the high terrain features throughout Utah over the weekend, however, the chances for wetting rains will sharply decrease. Moisture will gradually decrease areawide each day from Sunday through Tuesday next week, with decreasing coverage of precipitation expected alongside a drying surface humidity trend. By Wednesday, widespread humidity at, or below, 15 percent is anticipated to be maintained through the remainder of the week. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Heat Advisory until 7 AM MDT Saturday for UTZ101>106. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Traphagan AVIATION...Traphagan FIRE WEATHER...Webber For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  570 FXUS64 KMEG 220424 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1124 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1123 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon, with areas along and west of the Mississippi River having the greatest chance of rainfall. A few storms could be severe, with damaging winds and perhaps large hail. - More bearable conditions will be in place this weekend with highs on Sunday ranging from the upper 80s to mid 90s. - Northwest flow aloft will keep rain chances in the forecast each day next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1123 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Shower and thunderstorm chances are increasing Saturday afternoon and evening as a weak disturbance moves across the southern Plains. The latest CAMs are in better agreement with storms firing over south central Kansas in the early afternoon hours. This activity would dive southeast towards the Mid-South, posing a damaging wind threat. However, a few caveats exist to this forecast. First, if convective initiation occurs further south, upper level steering may keep storms to our west. In addition, the presence of dry air aloft may discourage storm longevity. Regardless, a few areas of the Mid-South can expect showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening with the potential for damaging winds. Outside of rain chances, the weekend will be much more bearable thanks to lower dewpoints and northerly surface winds. Sunday will be our "coolest" day with highs ranging from the upper 80s near Kentucky to the mid 90s in the Mississippi Delta. For the upcoming week, strong upper level ridging will build over the Rockies. Ensembles remain consistent in several shortwaves ejecting out of this region starting Monday. These disturbances will follow a northwest flow pattern into the Mid-South, keeping rain chances almost daily through the end of the week. While it remains too early to pinpoint areas at risk for MCS development, the upper level pattern is suggesting a high probability of at least one MCS next week. If this manifests, damaging winds will be the primary concern. The good news is that the northwest flow will keep us on the cooler side of things. The probability for heat indices reaching 105 degrees or greater next week is low, around 15 percent. This may change in future forecast updates, but for now expect a slightly cooler week with daily chances of rain. ANS && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Short range guidance consensus has increased with respect to TSRA chances Saturday afternoon. It appears that upstream TSRA will develop sufficiently east over the central plains late tonight to put this convection upstream of a good portion of the Midsouth later in the day. . TSRA may dissipate over MO during the morning, but regenerate over southern MO and northern AR (including JBR) by early afternoon. Additional scattered TSRA appears likely to develop downstream toward MEM and perhaps as far east as MKL by 20z. As with most northwest flow TSRA scenarios, confidence in timing is limited. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1123 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A few areas of fog cannot be ruled out near the Tennessee River tonight, but any reduction in visibility should quickly resolve after sunrise. Otherwise, relative humidity values around 40 percent will be in place through Sunday. Fire weather concerns will remain low due to light 20 ft winds and wetting rain chances returning next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...PWB  637 FXUS64 KHGX 220426 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1126 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory remains in effect. Hot conditions will persist through next week. - Isolated thunderstorms possible late Saturday afternoon / evening. Best chance of a storm will be across our northern zones. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1059 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Taking a look at the large-scale view of the weather pattern via water vapor satellite imagery and 500 MB RAP analysis, one can see that the strong mid/upper ridge centered over the Four Corners region continues to be the dominant force over the Texas atmosphere. A quick glance at the global ensemble data shows that this ridge will likely remain dominant through at least the middle to later part of next week. If you have not been enjoying the recent very hot conditions, then I send to you my profound apologies. This pattern will likely skew temperatures hotter than normal through the next week, though perhaps we can dial the heat down slightly by the end of next week. Triple digit heat will be the norm across inland Southeast Texas, with low/mid 90s at the beaches. Humidity will easily make it feel 5-10 degrees hotter. A heat advisory is in effect through Sunday. I won't be surprised if we end up issuing advisories well into the upcoming week. Perhaps a few of you will experience some heat relief in the form of an isolated afternoon / evening thunderstorm. There was actually quite a bit of thunderstorm activity east of our region on Friday, with isolated activity occurring in our Piney Woods zones. Though Saturday's atmosphere will nearly the same synoptically, there could modest mesoscale differences that bring isolated storms to areas that remained dry on Friday. For example, we'll need to watch some of these outflow boundaries approaching from the east thanks to Friday's Louisiana storms. There will also be additional weak disturbances in the flow aloft worth watching. Monitoring these weak disturbances will likely be a theme throughout the next week. But generally speaking, expect mostly dry and very hot conditions through the forecast period. Self && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Amendment) Issued at 1059 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Winds are anticipated to become VRB around 3-5kts as the overnight hrs continue. The chance for convection to develop has also subsided. A brief period of MVFR CIGS and BR does remains possible for the sunrise hrs. Later Saturday morning winds begin to pickup and shift to SSW. During the evening hrs, around 22z, the winds switch to SSE before transitioning to VRB at the end of the TAF period. CMW && .MARINE... Issued at 1059 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 South to southwest winds are expected to average 10-15 knots over the next several days. Gusts to 20 knots will be possible in the bays during the afternoon and in the Gulf during the overnight. Thunderstorm activity is expected to the north of the region Saturday. We cannot rule out a storm making it down to the coast late afternoon and evening. Gulf seas should average 2 to 3 feet over the next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 102 79 103 79 / 0 0 20 10 Houston (IAH) 101 81 103 81 / 20 0 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 93 82 93 82 / 10 0 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Self AVIATION...CMW MARINE...Self  872 FXUS63 KLBF 220434 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1134 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible late tonight - Moderate to heavy rainfall may be possible with storms tonight, with the potential for flooding - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms into early next week && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 341 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 The main concern for the remainder of this afternoon into tonight will generally be the chance for scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon hours. Expect there to be a lull in thunderstorms early to mid evening, then as a disturbance moves into the area could see thunderstorms redevelop this evening. Convection that develops tonight is generally expected after 9pm CT. Storms that develop tonight will likely be elevated in nature so the main threats would be large hail and damaging wind gusts. There will be a secondary threat of moderate to heavy rainfall as well with the potential for storms to train over the same area. Confidence in overnight convection is medium, as there still remains some uncertainty on how much the environment is able to destabilize tonight and if there will be enough forcing. If storms form however, generally expect most of the storm development to move out of the area before sunrise. The greatest area of concern will generally be along and east of HWY 83 and north of interstate 80. Heavy rain potential overnight, although storm movement will be moderate, some of the CAMs have been hinting at the possibility of storms training over the same location, near the boundary. PWAT values overnight will be around 1.25 to 1.75 inches. Depending where storms set up there may be the potential for flooding issues. Although the Sandhills can usually intake a lot of rainfall, rainfall over the same area the last couple days has been near 3 inches in some locations and have seen soil moisture saturation around 50 to 70 percent, so will need to monitor locations across north central into central Nebraska closely. As for Saturday morning, there may be the potential for some patchy fog in the area with light winds and low level moisture from morning convection, but confidence is low at this time. Saturday precipitation potential after early morning convection will remain low and expect Saturday to be mostly dry. There will be some potential for an isolated thunderstorms to develop off the high terrain and move eastward into western/southwest Nebraska Saturday evening, however coverage will remain limited. There will be a greater chance for precipitation late Saturday night into Sunday morning with isolated to scattered convection across western and north central Nebraska. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 341 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Upper level level ridge to the west will keep northwest flow over the High Plains into early next week. There will continue to be an increase of low level moisture advecting into the High Plains through early next week. This combined with disturbances that move over the ridge into the area and will see daily chances for storms into early next week. At this time the threat for organized storms still remains uncertain, with greater confidence in isolated to scattered storm development than widespread storm chances. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Periods of scattered to broken high clouds will persist across western and north central Nebraska over the next 24 hours. There is a threat for showers and thunderstorms over north central into central Nebraska overnight, however forecast confidence is low based on short term model solutions tonight. That being said, will forgo thunderstorm mention for the KVTN terminal overnight. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gomez LONG TERM...Gomez AVIATION...Buttler  941 FXUS64 KBMX 220436 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1136 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1132 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026 - Minor HeatRisk will continue through the weekend. Heat indices are forecast to remain below 105 degrees. - Drier air will result in less rain chances through the weekend, although some storms may develop across the north late Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... (Saturday through next Friday) Issued at 1132 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026 In the short term, decreasing dew point depressions and light winds following earlier convection will likely support patchy fog development around sunrise Saturday morning (20-40% probability). As upper-level ridging builds over the weekend, increased subsidence and drier air will temporarily lower precipitation chances. However, latest CAMs indicate a weak shortwave riding the ridge periphery, potentially affecting the northwest counties late afternoon into early evening. Consequently, maintained 20- 30% rain chances after 7 PM Saturday night. High temperatures are expected to persist in the low to mid-90s, though arriving drier air will limit heat indices to generally 100-104 degrees. Looking into next week, high confidence exists in a stagnant upper-level pattern dominated by a strong ridge over the Southwest and southern tier. While the ridge holds, moderate confidence exists in the timing of shortwaves rotating through the northwest flow and a moderating frontal surge, which are expected to increase precipitation chances for the Southeast. Periodic bouts of rain and thunderstorms are forecast to overspread the region starting Tuesday and continuing through Friday as moisture and instability pool along the ridge's periphery. 16 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026 A batch of rain is currently moving right over EET, between TCL and BHM. Look for the activity to remain possible through 02Z for the north. MGM and AUO may see some additional activity after 00Z through 03Z. MVFR cigs/vis and gusty winds will be likely with any passing storms. Will continue with PROB30 mentions to account for this activity. As winds become light overnight, there will be a low (20-30%) chance for patchy MVFR fog around sunrise. Best chances will be at terminals that receive rain this afternoon and evening. Dry conditions are expected through much of the area on Saturday. Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air filtering into the area on Saturday will result in a decrease in relative humidity (35 to 45%) for most locations. However, wind speeds are expected to remain light, which should negate any significant fire weather concerns during this period. Moisture gradually begins to return early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 70 94 70 92 / 10 0 10 0 Anniston 70 92 69 91 / 10 0 10 0 Birmingham 72 93 72 92 / 10 0 20 10 Tuscaloosa 73 98 73 96 / 10 10 20 10 Calera 72 94 72 93 / 20 0 10 10 Auburn 72 91 72 91 / 40 10 10 10 Montgomery 73 96 73 96 / 30 10 10 10 Troy 72 95 71 95 / 40 20 10 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...16 AVIATION...16  986 FXUS63 KFGF 220438 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1138 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Potential for strong to severe storms Monday. - Seasonable weather with scattered rain chances Tonight/Friday and early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...Synopsis... NW flow continues to become more amplified the next few days with increasing ridging across the Rockies and high plains. Troughing off the Pacific coast looks to move ashore Saturday and flatten the ridge bringing increasing precipitation chances Monday and Tuesday. Ridging then returns for the mid and late week. Could see some strong to severe storms on Monday/Tuesday though there are still a some unknowns so wont speculate into the potential too much. Overall seasonal weather with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s each day and peak daily heat indices generally 80-85 making a it a comfortable stretch of late summer weather. - Today A shortwave is quickly traversing the northwest flow aloft with cold air advection behind yesterdays wave helping to steepen mid level lapse rates. Overall pretty skinny instability but reminiscent of a springtime northwest flow with a deepening CU field and the expectation for afternoon showers/thunderstorms once we reach the convective temp in the low to mid 80s this afternoon. Not likley to see high rainfall totals but a few locations in northwest Minnesota could squeak out a quick tenth. Severe weather is not expected with only 20-25kts of eff shear and 1000 j/kg of ML CAPE but some small hail is not out of the question. - Rain/Severe Chances Early Next Week Similar to yesterday AI ensembles agree strongly on the track of the wave through the canadian provinces on Monday afternoon/Tuesday morning with the Euro still the more progressive solution but the GFS is catching up as expected. Overall the expectation is for lee troughing east of the rockies with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 j/kg to support at least a wind and hail threat on Monday afternoon/evening across parts of the Dakotas. This does appear to evolve into a closed 500mb wave with closed isotherms as well within the low meeting the definition of a cold core low supporting a localized tornado threat in Saskatchewan and Manitoba Monday but given the track this appears to stay well north of our area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Simple TAFs over the next 24 hours. Winds have dropped off, and will remain under 5 knots out of the north/northwest overnight. Skies will be mostly clear overnight. There is a low chance for fog to develop, but with at least some northerly wind, it will likely be harder for it to develop tonight then it was last night. Therefore, I did not include fog in any TAFs at this time. Winds will increase again on Saturday, still out of the north/northwest, sustained at about 10 to 12 knots at all TAF sties by afternoon. A few gusts are likely at KFAR and KGFK as well, but will remain under 20 knots. Just as today, once the sun sets, winds will rapidly decrease Saturday evening. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TT AVIATION...Rafferty  980 FXUS66 KMTR 220438 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 938 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 308 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Temperatures will be close to or below normal into the beginning of next week - Warm and dry conditions above 1000ft persist into the weekend && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 308 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 (This evening through Saturday night) The forecast is on repeat today. Satellite imagery shows high clouds streaming overhead and the stratus a bit more dispersed along the coast. Expect these conditions to continue this afternoon, with the marine layer making a return later this evening and overnight. Guidance shows the marine layer should be around 1000-1500ft across our service area, which should lead to another night and morning of cloudy skies for the majority of the valleys. Low clouds continue to clear by mid to late morning, with a few high clouds potentially lingering into Saturday. With stratus clearing potentially a bit earlier and less high clouds, highs should be similar to Thursday, perhaps a few degrees warmer. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 308 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 (Sunday through next Thursday) The extended forecast looks similar, as we remain caught in the quasi-zonal to weak troughing while high pressure holds to the east. Temperatures should cool a few degrees on Sunday and then moderate into early next week. Models and ensembles show ridging trying to build slightly to the west, which would lead to warming for mid to late next week. Some caveats to what might happen will be the Pacific. The Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center shows three potential disturbances well south of Baja. Could influence how the high behaves. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 938 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR prevails except for patchy coastal stratus and fog /IFR/ along San Mateo County and Monterey County. Mid and high clouds, including wildfire smoke over the north Central Coast, are moving northeastward over the forecast area. An area of cooler near surface air will arrive from the northwest tonight and Saturday morning resulting in a return of stratus, fog /IFR-LIFR/ and possibly a few patches of drizzle. Vicinity of SFO...It's VFR except surface cooler air will arrive overnight, this will support redevelopment of stratus /IFR/. VFR returns 18z Saturday. West wind 10 to 15 knots tonight and Saturday morning. West wind increasing to 20 to 28 knots Saturday afternoon to mid Saturday evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Erosion of stratus is still taking place to the northwest across the Monterey Bay however orographic upslope cooling of air parcels upon arrival vicinity KMRY is occurring supporting a scattered to broken stratus /MVFR-IFR/ ceiling. Stratus /IFR/ is forecast to reach KSNS tonight and Saturday morning. Wildfire smoke so far is aloft. A few patches of drizzle are possible tonight and Saturday morning. Conditions improve to MVFR- VFR late Saturday morning and afternoon. Stratus /IFR/ returns Saturday evening. West to northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 932 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Widespread moderate to fresh northwest breezes prevail through the weekend with slight to moderate seas. Locally strong breezes with occasional near gale force gusts are expected in the coastal jet regions of Point Sur and Point Reyes. Hazardous conditions for small crafts are expected this afternoon for the bay waters and immediate coastal waters. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  037 FXUS64 KEPZ 220440 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1040 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1100 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain on Saturday. Thunderstorm chances will diminish rapidly this weekend as upper level high pressure builds closer to the area. - Above normal temperatures across southern New Mexico and far west Texas through the week ahead. Lowland highs will be in the upper 90s to lower 100s, which will approach daily records. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 High pressure aloft centered over the Southern Rockies will be the primary driver of our weather pattern over the next several days. Thunderstorm development through the weekend will be driven by recycled moisture under this upper high, with less and less coverage each day as drier air moves in. The main headline will be above normal temperatures, which looks to stay in place through the rest of August. Lowland highs consistently in the 98-102 degree range will run 8-10 degrees above normal for late August and near daily records. Currently no daily record for El Paso in the forecast, but were only 1-2 degrees off most days going forward. Earlier this evening we saw isolated showers and thunderstorms across southwest New Mexico. Sounding PWs were 1.0-1.1, with barely enough instability (400-800 J/kg), and a mix of convective temperature/terrain forcing. Storms were quite weak, with 10-20% coverage over the lowlands and more notable winners being the southwestern rim of the Sacramento Mountain and southern Black Range. For Saturday, expect more of this weak convective activity, only another tick lower in coverage. Lowland chances fall below 5%, especially for the I-10 corridor. Any storms that do form will favor the high elevations, popping around noon and diminishing prior to sunset. Best chances will focus over Grant County. Storms will be capable of brief downpours and gusty winds up to 45 mph. Sunday will be even drier, with very spotty mountain showers and almost no action for lowland zones. Upper high drifts east directly over the Southern High Plains into early next week, leading to a near-total shut off of moisture flow and the end of storm chances area wide. Precipitable water values 0.8-1.0 will fall below the climate normals and strong (and very warm) subsident flow within the 400-600mb layer aloft will hinder updraft development. The primary monsoonal plume will be pushed west across Arizona and the Colorado River valley. This pattern looks to remain in place through next week, leading to an extended period of late-August dryness and heat. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Skies FEW-SCT150 overnight with surface winds 030-070 at 4 to 8 knots. Mostly clear skies after sunrise on Saturday, generally SKC for developing TCU over mountain by 18Z. Isolated TS across SW NM between 19-23Z tomorrow, likely not affecting TAF sites. No mention of TS in this forecast due to low confidence in direct impacts. Prevailing surface winds 100-140 at 8 to 12 knots tomorrow. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1200 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain again today will run into a less favorable environment as they drift towards the lowlands. Above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend, with an overall drying trend from Saturday as the upper ridge squashes convection chances area-wide. With the hot/dry spell, ERCs are forecast to climb towards the 75th percentile next week. Min RHs will range from 12-20% for the lowlands through Sat, then 10-15%; 20-35% for mtns through Sat, then 15-25%. Vent rates will be good to very good. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 76 101 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 68 97 66 96 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 70 99 69 99 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 70 98 70 99 / 0 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 53 75 52 76 / 0 20 0 0 Truth or Consequences 72 98 71 98 / 10 10 10 0 Silver City 65 92 64 92 / 10 20 30 0 Deming 72 100 71 100 / 10 0 0 0 Lordsburg 72 100 71 99 / 10 10 10 0 West El Paso Metro 77 101 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 71 100 69 100 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 75 104 74 103 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 69 94 68 94 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 74 102 73 101 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 74 100 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 75 100 74 100 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 71 99 70 99 / 10 0 0 0 Hatch 72 102 71 102 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 76 101 74 100 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 70 98 68 98 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 58 88 57 89 / 0 10 0 0 Mescalero 57 86 56 87 / 0 20 0 0 Timberon 56 85 55 86 / 10 10 0 0 Winston 62 89 61 90 / 10 20 20 10 Hillsboro 69 97 69 97 / 10 10 10 0 Spaceport 70 98 68 98 / 10 0 10 0 Lake Roberts 59 90 58 91 / 10 40 30 10 Hurley 67 95 66 95 / 0 10 20 0 Cliff 68 99 66 100 / 10 20 30 0 Mule Creek 66 96 64 96 / 10 20 30 10 Faywood 68 94 68 94 / 10 10 20 0 Animas 71 100 70 99 / 10 0 10 0 Hachita 71 99 70 98 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 70 99 69 98 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 68 95 66 93 / 0 0 10 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt  022 FXUS66 KMTR 220440 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 938 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 308 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Temperatures will be close to or below normal into the beginning of next week - Warm and dry conditions above 1000ft persist into the weekend && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 308 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 (This evening through Saturday night) The forecast is on repeat today. Satellite imagery shows high clouds streaming overhead and the stratus a bit more dispersed along the coast. Expect these conditions to continue this afternoon, with the marine layer making a return later this evening and overnight. Guidance shows the marine layer should be around 1000-1500ft across our service area, which should lead to another night and morning of cloudy skies for the majority of the valleys. Low clouds continue to clear by mid to late morning, with a few high clouds potentially lingering into Saturday. With stratus clearing potentially a bit earlier and less high clouds, highs should be similar to Thursday, perhaps a few degrees warmer. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 308 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 (Sunday through next Thursday) The extended forecast looks similar, as we remain caught in the quasi-zonal to weak troughing while high pressure holds to the east. Temperatures should cool a few degrees on Sunday and then moderate into early next week. Models and ensembles show ridging trying to build slightly to the west, which would lead to warming for mid to late next week. Some caveats to what might happen will be the Pacific. The Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center shows three potential disturbances well south of Baja. Could influence how the high behaves. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 938 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR prevails except for patchy coastal stratus and fog /IFR/ along San Mateo County and Monterey County. Mid and high clouds, including wildfire smoke over the north Central Coast, are moving northeastward over the forecast area. An area of cooler near surface air will arrive from the northwest tonight and Saturday morning resulting in a return of stratus, fog /IFR-LIFR/ and possibly a few patches of drizzle. Vicinity of SFO...It's VFR except cooler surface air will arrive overnight, this will support redevelopment of stratus /IFR/. VFR returns 18z Saturday. West wind 10 to 15 knots tonight and Saturday morning. West wind increasing to 20 to 28 knots Saturday afternoon to mid Saturday evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Erosion of stratus is still taking place to the northwest across the Monterey Bay however orographic upslope cooling of air parcels upon arrival vicinity KMRY is occurring supporting a scattered to broken stratus /MVFR-IFR/ ceiling. Stratus /IFR/ is forecast to reach KSNS tonight and Saturday morning. Wildfire smoke so far is aloft. A few patches of drizzle are possible tonight and Saturday morning. Conditions improve to MVFR- VFR late Saturday morning and afternoon. Stratus /IFR/ returns Saturday evening. West to northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 932 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Widespread moderate to fresh northwest breezes prevail through the weekend with slight to moderate seas. Locally strong breezes with occasional near gale force gusts are expected in the coastal jet regions of Point Sur and Point Reyes. Hazardous conditions for small crafts are expected this afternoon for the bay waters and immediate coastal waters. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  180 FXUS62 KRAH 220445 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 100 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Drier, cooler, less humidity Sunday into Tuesday night. * Shower and storm chances return with higher humidity late week. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 100 AM Saturday... 1) Drier weather, along with lower relative humidities and cooler temperatures, is expected Sunday into mid-week. PM shower and storm chances return mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 100 AM Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Drier, cooler, less humidity Sunday into mid-week. Shower and storm chances along with higher humidity return late week. A mid/upper level trough will be positioned over the eastern United States Sunday into mid-week. This will mean cooler and drier weather for our region as surface high pressure builds from the Midwest Sunday to the mid-Atlantic states by Wednesday. Cooler and drier air will advect into the region Sunday and Sunday night with highs in the mid to upper 80s Sunday, and lows Sunday night in the 60s. Monday into Wednesday will feature mostly sunny skies with dew points dipping into the 50s both Monday and Tuesday. Some return moisture will raise the dew points back into mostly 60s by Wednesday. Daytime highs should top out in the 83-88 range each day with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s (north-central to SE). A chance of mainly PM showers/storms will return as early as Wednesday (20-30 percent), and more likely Thursday (40-60 percent chance). Highs will return to the upper 80s to lower 90s by late week. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 750 PM Friday... 24 hour TAF period: A line of storms will impact KRDU and possibly KRWI this evening, with a larger area of rain and embedded showers/storms likely to impact KGSO, KFAY, KRDU, and KRWI for the next several hours. Additional showers/storms could develop near KINT between issuance and midnight, but confidence is lower there. Cigs should come down to MVFR and IFR this evening, then likely lowering further to LIFR overnight. Vsbys should also drop below VFR, generally in the 1-4 SM range most sites. Cigs will be slow to lift on Saturday, with sub-VFR possible into the early-mid afternoon, latest northeast (KRWI). There could be some iso/sct showers/storms Sat aft, mainly at KRDU, KFAY, and KRWI, but confidence is still somewhat low at this time. Outlook: Widespread restrictions are not currently forecast for any sites Saturday night, although if precipitation is heavy enough, there could be local restrictions. Dry VFR conditions are expected Sunday through Tuesday night before a chance of thunderstorms returns to all terminals Wednesday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Saturday morning for NCZ023>025-039>043- 073>078-083>086-088-089. && $$ DISCUSSION...Badgett AVIATION...10/Green  189 FXUS63 KUNR 220445 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1045 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Upper ridge will dominate the weather through early next week. - Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon/evening in/near the Black Hills to the SD/NE border. - Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur over northeastern WY late Saturday afternoon and evening. - Temperatures will average about 4-8F above normal. && .DISCUSSION...(This Afternoon Through Thursday) Issued at 1149 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Current upper-air analysis and water vapor imagery depict large- scale ridging continuing to strengthen over the southwest. Satellite imagery indicates partly cloudy skies behind the thunderstorms and showers that moved through the region this morning. Current radar scans show a few weak returns associated with showers/virga over western SD. Surface observations show temperatures mainly in the 80s, with dewpoints in the 40s across northeast WY transitioning to the low 60s across south-central SD. Winds are generally easterly across western SD and southerly across northeast WY at 10 to 17kts, gusting to 25kts. Campbell Co. in particular may see gusty northeasterly winds up to 25kts, behind a weak frontal passage, and minRH values in the upper teens this afternoon. Due to these conditions, elevated fire weather concerns will continue to persist through this afternoon for Campbell Co. There is still uncertainty around today's chances for thunderstorms across southwestern SD, both in timing and severity, with disagreement remaining among the CAMs. However, MLCAPE values of ~750-1250 J/kg, dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s in the SD plains, and 0-6km bulk wind shear values around 55kts indicate that the environment in southwestern SD could support thunderstorm development and a supercell or two. The timing of the shortwave today, the cap currently in place, and the strong vertical moisture gradient between the SD plains and the Black Hills will all play a large role in storm development this afternoon/evening and into the overnight hours. Due to these factors, there is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms southeast of Rapid City down to the SD/NE border, with the primary threats being large hail (up to 2") and damaging winds (60-70+ mph). As a result, 15 percent POPs were added to the southern Black Hills and into southwestern SD for this afternoon into the evening. Multiple disturbances riding along the ridge will keep scattered thunderstorms chances in play for Saturday and Sunday, with northeast WY favored for better coverage Saturday. As is typical for thunderstorms in August, chances for precipitation will be hit-and- miss. Cloud cover and storm placement will also drive day-to-day temperatures, though highs are expected to remain above average across most of the region through the weekend and into next week as the ridge remains in place. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued At 1040 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Breezy conditions are expected across the area Saturday afternoon, with +20kt gusts expected. Far northeast WY may see some showers tomorrow evening, but confidence is still relatively low. Still, the PROB30 for KGCC was retained at 22Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued At 1149 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Elevated fire weather concerns will continue through this afternoon for Campbell Co., where gusty northeasterly winds up to 25kts will combine with minimum relative humidity values in the upper teens. Thunderstorm chances increase across northeast Wyoming late Saturday afternoon, increasing the dry lightning risk, however, relative humidity values will increase to the upper 30s to low 40s. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schultz AVIATION...Schweigert FIRE WEATHER...Schultz  156 FXUS64 KMAF 220443 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1143 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1143 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Hot temperatures continue through the forecast period with little to no chance of rain. - Drink plenty of fluids and seek shade frequently as heat illnesses due to prolonged exposure to heat may occur. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Heat remains the main concern for the area through the short term forecast. Overnight lows, particularly east of Midland and Fort Stockton settle only into the mid to upper 70s. A few spots may stay near 80F. Highs on Saturday move into the low to mid 100s across the Western Low Rolling Plains/eastern Permian Basin. For this, have issued a Heat Advisory for those northeastern counties that begins Saturday afternoon and carries through to Sunday evening. Lows in that area may not get below 80F Saturday night. The combination of above normal temperatures during the day and the inability of the land to cool off at night presents increased heat risk, especially to those working outdoors. A storm or two across the northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico may be seen this evening as convection develops to the north of these areas. Any storms that form would contain gusty winds, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall. Beyond tonight however, rain chances will be near zero through at least Sunday. -Stickney && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 The upper-level ridge is expected to shift east and become centered over our region Sunday through at least Tuesday next week. This yields afternoon highs at or above 100 degrees across most locations, with temperatures between 105 and 110 degrees in the Big Bend. Some portions of the northeast Permian Basin and Trans Pecos look to reach near 105 as well. By late week, the upper-level ridge axis shifts back to the west which allows for temperatures to cool a few degrees. A few showers/storms are possible late next week, though sinking motion under the ridge will limit convection. Greening && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR continues through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 76 104 76 104 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 74 101 73 102 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 76 102 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 73 100 74 100 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 70 93 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 72 100 72 100 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 63 94 64 94 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 76 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 76 100 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 75 102 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM CDT Sunday for Borden- Howard-Mitchell-Scurry. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...29  172 FXUS65 KPUB 220444 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1044 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Monsoon moisture strengthens slightly through most of next week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms over the region. - Flooding and flash flooding will be possible each day over the Aspen Acres and 24 burn scars, urban areas, and over regions with saturated soils. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 211 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Thunderstorm coverage will continue to be more isolated late this afternoon and evening. The primary risks will be gusty outflow winds of up to 40 MPH - so keep an eye out for virga which would be an indicator of strong winds. Underneath the core of the thunderstorm will be locally heavy rainfall. At this point in time, there is no hail in the forecast. As for flash flooding risks this afternoon, it is fairly low - one cannot rule out an isolated storm that develops over the burn scar in which we'll have to issue a Flash Flood Warning, but the chances are low (<20%). Overnight low temperatures will be in the low 60s across the plains and the 50s over mountain valleys. The stronger monsoonal tap returns once again tomorrow as the upper level high pressure center building today compresses allowing a westerly moist flow reach Colorado. The main question is if to issue a Flash Flood Watch for tomorrow for the Aspen Acres Burn Scar. I cannot say right now with 50% certainty or higher that the burn scar will have a flash flood tomorrow, therefore I will hold off on the Watch for this forecast cycle. Check back with the overnight crew. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 60s across the plains and in the upper 80s to low 90s over the mountain valleys. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 211 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Monsoon moisture will be present throughout most of the week. Sunday afternoon and evening has the strongest flooding signal for the Aspen Acres burn scar with enough confidence for thunderstorm development further south across the region. The 500hPa high is compressed enough in response to a wave passing to the north of the high to allow these storms to develop. So keep an eye out for a Flash Flood Watch for Sunday afternoon. Monday through Wednesday has a lot of similarities, however. The high is centered south of Colorado and allows that monsoonal moisture over the west to advect over southern Colorado, so there will be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms over our mountains, mountain valleys, and plains. We'll need to be on higher alert for flooding and flash flooding over urban areas, regions with saturated soils, and over our burn scars, including the Aspen Acres burn scar. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1044 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Lingering convection across the eastern plains finally starting to diminish as of 06z, while still affecting KPUB with E-NE surface winds gusting to 30 kts. Otherwise, plan on VFR conditions across the forecast area overnight, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Brought in VCTS for KALS and KCOS starting around 19z-20z tomorrow, with PROB30 for -TSRA and variable gusts 21z-03z. For KPUB, mentioned VCTS starting at 23z with PROB30 for -TSRA and variable gusts 00z-05z. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SKELLY LONG TERM...SKELLY AVIATION...MOORE  389 FXUS63 KARX 220447 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1147 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A dry and pleasant weekend with highs in the low 70s to low 80s. - Next widespread chance (30 to 55%) for showers and storms in Tuesday into Wednesday - Seasonable temperatures continue for next week with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1147 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Today - Monday: Dry and Seasonable After this shortwave exits the region, northwest flow returns as a trough sets up to our east and a ridge to our west. This ridge will be at its strongest over the weekend across the central CONUS. While in between these two features, our region will be under the influence of surface high pressure helping to keep conditions dry and temperatures in the low 70s to low 80s. Dewpoints also lower during the weekend into the 50s resulting in a pleasant day for each of the next three days. Heading into Monday this ridge breaks down as a shortwave trough moves across southern Canada. Tuesday - Wednesday: Storm Potential Returns Ensemble and deterministic guidance are in good agreement that the shortwave moves down into northern Minnesota on Tuesday resulting in increased precipitation chances for the Upper Midwest during this two day stretch. The timing and placement of where the precipitation will end up at is still uncertain. These details, as well if any of these storms have severe potential, will be ironed out over the next few days. Thursday - Saturday: Dry Early, More Storm Potential Into the Weekend Once the shortwave passes through the area, northwest flow continues for Thursday allowing for much of the region to remain relatively dry. By Friday, the upper-level pattern switches to a more zonal flow. Heading into the weekend members from both the GEFS (25 to 40%) and EPS (20 to 30%) are highlighting the potential for more showers and storms. The deterministic GFS and ECMWF also show a wave impacting the Upper Midwest during this time, however it is still too far out to be confident in this scenario occurring. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 650 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Moderate (60-80%) for VFR through the 22.00Z TAF period outside of Wisconsin River Valley FG affecting KOVS. While low confidence (<15%) due to northwest winds ushering in a locally drier airmass, Mississippi River Valley FG affecting KLSE TAF site would be short lived and limited impact should low level saturation manage to come to fruition overnight into Saturday morning. Northwest winds increase through Saturday. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cecava AVIATION...JAR  372 FXUS63 KLBF 220446 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1146 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible late tonight - Moderate to heavy rainfall may be possible with storms tonight, with the potential for flooding - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms into early next week && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 341 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 The main concern for the remainder of this afternoon into tonight will generally be the chance for scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon hours. Expect there to be a lull in thunderstorms early to mid evening, then as a disturbance moves into the area could see thunderstorms redevelop this evening. Convection that develops tonight is generally expected after 9pm CT. Storms that develop tonight will likely be elevated in nature so the main threats would be large hail and damaging wind gusts. There will be a secondary threat of moderate to heavy rainfall as well with the potential for storms to train over the same area. Confidence in overnight convection is medium, as there still remains some uncertainty on how much the environment is able to destabilize tonight and if there will be enough forcing. If storms form however, generally expect most of the storm development to move out of the area before sunrise. The greatest area of concern will generally be along and east of HWY 83 and north of interstate 80. Heavy rain potential overnight, although storm movement will be moderate, some of the CAMs have been hinting at the possibility of storms training over the same location, near the boundary. PWAT values overnight will be around 1.25 to 1.75 inches. Depending where storms set up there may be the potential for flooding issues. Although the Sandhills can usually intake a lot of rainfall, rainfall over the same area the last couple days has been near 3 inches in some locations and have seen soil moisture saturation around 50 to 70 percent, so will need to monitor locations across north central into central Nebraska closely. As for Saturday morning, there may be the potential for some patchy fog in the area with light winds and low level moisture from morning convection, but confidence is low at this time. Saturday precipitation potential after early morning convection will remain low and expect Saturday to be mostly dry. There will be some potential for an isolated thunderstorms to develop off the high terrain and move eastward into western/southwest Nebraska Saturday evening, however coverage will remain limited. There will be a greater chance for precipitation late Saturday night into Sunday morning with isolated to scattered convection across western and north central Nebraska. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 341 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Upper level level ridge to the west will keep northwest flow over the High Plains into early next week. There will continue to be an increase of low level moisture advecting into the High Plains through early next week. This combined with disturbances that move over the ridge into the area and will see daily chances for storms into early next week. At this time the threat for organized storms still remains uncertain, with greater confidence in isolated to scattered storm development than widespread storm chances. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1146 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Periods of scattered to broken high clouds will persist across western and north central Nebraska over the next 24 hours. There is a threat for showers and thunderstorms over north central into central Nebraska overnight and activity has begun to develop over north central Nebraska. That being said, will add a mention of thunderstorms to the KVTN terminal forecast overnight. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gomez LONG TERM...Gomez AVIATION...Buttler  521 FXUS63 KUNR 220453 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1053 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Upper ridge will dominate the weather through early next week. - Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur late Saturday afternoon and evening, especially across northeast Wyoming. - Temperatures will average about 4-8F above normal. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1053 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A couple stray showers or thunderstorms are possible overnight across the south-central South Dakota plains, sticking fairly close to the Nebraska border, with dry conditions elsewhere. Next round of thunderstorm potential still on track for late Saturday afternoon and evening across northeast Wyoming, spreading eastward into South Dakota with time later Saturday evening. A severe cell or two with damaging winds and large hail will be possible, especially west of the Black Hills, as forecast soundings and HREF guidance support 1,000 to 2,000 J/kg of SBCAPE combined with sufficient moisture and deep-layer shear as high as 40kts. Instability may tend to wane a bit east of the Black Hills, where some early-evening capping in forecast soundings also casts some uncertainty on thunderstorm evolution. Currently do carry PoPs eastward across our South Dakota zones from late evening into the overnight as everything trends east. && .DISCUSSION...(This Afternoon Through Thursday) Issued at 1149 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Current upper-air analysis and water vapor imagery depict large- scale ridging continuing to strengthen over the southwest. Satellite imagery indicates partly cloudy skies behind the thunderstorms and showers that moved through the region this morning. Current radar scans show a few weak returns associated with showers/virga over western SD. Surface observations show temperatures mainly in the 80s, with dewpoints in the 40s across northeast WY transitioning to the low 60s across south-central SD. Winds are generally easterly across western SD and southerly across northeast WY at 10 to 17kts, gusting to 25kts. Campbell Co. in particular may see gusty northeasterly winds up to 25kts, behind a weak frontal passage, and minRH values in the upper teens this afternoon. Due to these conditions, elevated fire weather concerns will continue to persist through this afternoon for Campbell Co. There is still uncertainty around today's chances for thunderstorms across southwestern SD, both in timing and severity, with disagreement remaining among the CAMs. However, MLCAPE values of ~750-1250 J/kg, dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s in the SD plains, and 0-6km bulk wind shear values around 55kts indicate that the environment in southwestern SD could support thunderstorm development and a supercell or two. The timing of the shortwave today, the cap currently in place, and the strong vertical moisture gradient between the SD plains and the Black Hills will all play a large role in storm development this afternoon/evening and into the overnight hours. Due to these factors, there is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms southeast of Rapid City down to the SD/NE border, with the primary threats being large hail (up to 2") and damaging winds (60-70+ mph). As a result, 15 percent POPs were added to the southern Black Hills and into southwestern SD for this afternoon into the evening. Multiple disturbances riding along the ridge will keep scattered thunderstorms chances in play for Saturday and Sunday, with northeast WY favored for better coverage Saturday. As is typical for thunderstorms in August, chances for precipitation will be hit-and- miss. Cloud cover and storm placement will also drive day-to-day temperatures, though highs are expected to remain above average across most of theregion through the weekend and into next week as the ridge remains in place. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued At 1040 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Breezy conditions are expected across the area Saturday afternoon, with +20kt gusts expected. Far northeast WY may see some showers tomorrow evening, but confidence is still relatively low. Still, the PROB30 for KGCC was retained at 22Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued At 1149 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Elevated fire weather concerns will continue through this afternoon for Campbell Co., where gusty northeasterly winds up to 25kts will combine with minimum relative humidity values in the upper teens. Thunderstorm chances increase across northeast Wyoming late Saturday afternoon, increasing the dry lightning risk, however, relative humidity values will increase to the upper 30s to low 40s. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ UPDATE...KSmith DISCUSSION...Schultz AVIATION...Schweigert FIRE WEATHER...Schultz  621 FXUS64 KLCH 220456 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1156 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Area wide Heat Advisory Saturday with max heat index values of 111 F. - Heat Stress Levels have increased to Extreme (level 4 of 4) for southeast Texas and Louisiana Saturday; this level of heat stress will persist through at least Monday. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday afternoon. - Lightning and volatile winds could exacerbate fire conditions with storm passage. Check with your local officials for burn bans across SETX and CEN/SWLA. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1146 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 This past afternoon and evening were certainly active as severe thunderstorms moved across central Louisiana down into Acadiana. The 00Z sounding from LCH had a surface CAPE value of 6600 J/kg with a DCAPE value of 1262 J/kg. Widespread damage was reported across Acadiana with a wind gust of 76 mph recorded at KARA. Moving into the forecast, looking aloft at 500 mb, the upper- level ridge continues to erode with the center building farther to the west. With us on the eastern edge of the ridge, we will start to see troughs rotating around the ridge and increasing our chances for MCS formation as this unstable air will run into our very warm and moist Gulf air mass. This instability, when combined with daytime heating, could cause a few strong to severe storms, but widespread severe weather is not expected. The main limiting factors for more severe weather are a lack of bulk shear and a drier low to mid levels of the atmosphere. With a lack of moisture aloft, the extent of thunderstorm development will be limited. But once again this environment can support "overachievers" with damaging winds possible as updrafts collapse. Moving into next week, we are looking at a diurnally driven pattern with storms forming along outflows and the sea breeze. The best chance for widespread rain will be on Thursday as both the GFS and ECMWF are picking up on a trough rotating around the ridge and moving in from the north. For the next seven days, heat will be a constant concern with heat index values expected to be above 108 F area wide this weekend. With persistent low-level flow from the south, our dew points will remain in the upper 70s keeping us muggy. Looking into the extended forecast, there is no real break from the heat and humidity and heat advisories are likely through the rest of the forecast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1146 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Overnight conditions will be VFR with a deck of BKN250. During sunrise will remain VFR with clear skies. CAMs show isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon with PROB30 in the extended TAF forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1146 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Light onshore winds will continue for the next several days, and waves will remain between 1 and 3 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1146 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Widespread rain across central Louisiana and Acadiana was certainly welcomed. Hopefully, the next time it rains, it will come with less wind. Little to no rain fell on the west side of the CWA, and KBDI values are expected to stay steady or slowly climb. Afternoon minRH values will be in the 30s this weekend. The main limiting factor for aggressive fire behavior is a lack of wind, with speeds expected to stay below 10 mph. Gusty winds caused by outflows from nearby storms could cause fires to behave aggressively, so caution should be exercised and outdoor burning is not recommended. Multiple parishes and counties have burn bans in effect. Please consult your local fire departments for more information. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ027>033-044- 045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ180-201- 259>262-515-516-615-616. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14 AVIATION...14