000 FXUS64 KLIX 220503 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1203 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1024 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Dangerous heat continues with afternoon heat indices in the 105-113 degree range through the weekend. Warm overnight temperatures will offer limited relief. - Isolated storms are expected this afternoon and evening with more scattered storms Sunday and Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 WV imagery shows the large stacked high over the SW CONUS sharply amplified northward into the west coast of Canada. This sharp amplification is what causeD the trough to the east of it to drop quickly into the deep south over our area. This trough will now get tempered and settle back into the SE CONUS where we should see the normal daily sh/ts develop. This does not mean there will be no storms here, we just won't see what we did yesterday. The stacked high will begin to shift east again and settle in the northern TX panhandle by the start of the new week. The good thing is that we will be in the "ring of fire" area on its periphery. We will get hot with heat advisories continuing and it is this heat that will help produce the storms that we see Sunday and Monday. We will remain in a northerly to NW flow pattern, so storms each day will still have the potential to become strong to severe. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Going into Wednesday and especially Thursday there will finally be somewhat of a pattern change. A fairly robust H5 short wave will dig over the Ozarks and down the MS River Valley. This will allow for higher POPs and lower afternoon temps going late into the next workweek. Wednesday POPs will be around climo during the diurnal cycle. By Thursday with the upper support and the upper level ridge losing some of its grip, more numerous showers and storms will be possible. Globals have continued to illustrate the same picture, so NBM has finally adjusted upward in POPs and downward with temperatures just a skosh. That said, heat headlines may still be needed on Wednesday. And sadly we cannot completely rule them out throughout the entire long term period. However, with more moisture around and upper level support helping trigger those diurnally driven showers and storms, an earlier initiation time will be likely overall limit the impacts from the heat. As time progresses and in building a bit more certainty in higher than climo POPs for Thursday and Friday, we may be able to bring down temperatures further allowing for more limits on those continued heat headlines. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Most terminals will be VFR through this cycle with the exception of HUM. HUM will have the higher of all sites for TSRA late today so the current pack will show timing in a prob group for this. && .MARINE... Issued at 1024 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Surface high pressure centered over the central Gulf will maintain a generally weak pressure gradient through much of the period. Northely winds around 10 knots will become W then SW to start the week. A predominantly light southerly flow will set up by mid week and remain through much of next week. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible with winds and waves higher in and near this activity. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...TE MARINE...TE  939 FXUS64 KSJT 220502 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1202 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Big Country, Heartland and Concho Valley areas this afternoon. - Hot and mainly dry weather will persist through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Starting to feel like a broken with the same song stuck playing, but hot continues as the upper ridge dominates. At least we didn't say dry this time although most areas will remain dry as will. Based on more of the CAMs showing isolated convection with a weak shortwave tomorrow afternoon and evening, did add 10% POPs over more of the area and mention isolated thunderstorms possible. Otherwise, forecast highs expected to be very near todays highs and extended the Heat Advisory into Saturday afternoon as well. Will need to keep an eye on morning lows. So far this week, morning lows have been able to drop into the 70s (and even 60s at times) with the dry air mass in place. But morning lows are creeping up towards the upper 70s across the Big Country. This makes the heat a little more unbearable and increases the risk and heat stress. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Next week will be hot and generally dry for our area with daily highs 8-12 degrees above normal. The strong upper level high will be over the New Mexico/Texas border Sunday-Tuesday, and then slowly migrate west toward the New Mexico/Arizona border by Thursday- Friday. The hottest days look to be Sunday through Tuesday, with the high in closer proximity and the 850mb thermal ridge the strongest. Expect highs to be 104-107 across the Concho Valley and 105-110 in the Big Country. Our southern counties will have highs mostly 100- 103 degrees. Anticipate the need for additional Heat Advisories for our northern and central counties, and some locations north of I-20 may approach Extreme Heat Warning criteria. By Thursday and Friday, expect highs to be in the upper 90s/around 100 in our southern counties, and 100-105 degrees farther north across the rest of our area. With weak northerly flow aloft around the eastern side of the aforementioned high in the midweek time frame, some of the medium range models hint at a possibility for a few showers and thunderstorms to develop along a surface trough as it moves south into our area Wednesday night and Thursday. The possibility looks remote at this time, however. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 604 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours across the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 106 81 106 81 / 0 20 0 0 San Angelo 104 76 104 76 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 102 74 102 74 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 105 76 105 77 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 106 79 107 79 / 0 10 0 0 Ozona 99 73 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 102 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Jones- McCulloch-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor- Throckmorton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...21  047 FXUS62 KTAE 220504 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 104 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 102 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Daily chances for thunderstorms remain in the forecast. Some strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening. Strong wind gusts of 40-60 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall are expected with the stronger storms that develop. - The heat wave is poised to finally break with a more typical summertime pattern returning early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 835 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Forecast is generally on track this evening. No major updates were required. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 For the rest of this afternoon, a remnant MCV will slowly spin down over southeast Georgia just east of Lanier and Lowndes Counties. We'll be watching a shortwave moving southward around the ridge to our west, which will precede the larger trough over the Great Lakes that will move through on Saturday. This shortwave will help generate scattered to numerous showers and storms later this afternoon continuing into the evening hours. Some of this convection could become more organized into clusters or lines. DCAPE and instability should increase further into the afternoon hours, which will lead to a threat of strong downbursts. Also, low to mid-level lapse rates will steepen with cooler temperatures moving in aloft, which could lead to a threat of some hail. SPC has maintained the Marginal Risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5) for this afternoon and evening for most of the area. Some of the guidance during the overnight hours has outflow from storms to our northwest moving into our area, which may help spark isolated to scattered showers and storms late tonight. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s. For Saturday, the shortwave moves more into our area, bisecting our area from northeast to southwest. So, rain chances will be more confined to areas from Panama City to Valdosta southward. While soundings aren't quite as impressive tomorrow, still a gusty wind and maybe small hail threat exist. Currently, there is no severe weather risk outlined for tomorrow from SPC. Drier air will sneak into our area as well, which should keep us below Heat Advisory levels for Saturday. If this holds, it would be the first day without a Heat Advisory in our area since August 10th. It will still be hot with highs in the lower half of the 90s with heat index values of 102-107. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Sunday and Monday will be the driest days with PWATs crashing to 1.2 to 1.5 inches. Thus, little coverage of showers and storms is expected Sunday and would occur mainly near the sea breeze. Monday, however, we'll have to watch if a shortwave rounds the ridge to our west and enters our area during the afternoon, which may help spark better coverage of showers and storms. The drier air will make it feel much more tolerable (until the sea breeze arrives). Highs will still be in the mid to upper 90s both days, but heat index values will only manage the upper 90s to 105 in most spots. Through much of the upcoming week, the ridge will remain off to our west, and we'll remain in northwesterly flow aloft. So, we'll continue to monitor for any ridge-riding disturbances, but our rain chances will gradually increase with a return to a summer pattern. Highs remain in the low to mid 90s with heat index values of 102-108. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 102 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Some MVFR to IFR ceilings are possible near KDHN and KABY around sunrise this morning, so have included TEMPO groups there to account for that. Another round of afternoon showers and storms are forecast. Otherwise, VFR conditions are generally forecast to prevail outside of convection. && .MARINE... Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Scattered storms are expected through Saturday, mainly in the overnight and morning hours. However, clusters of storms could move into the waters during the evening hours from land. Gusty winds and brief waterspouts are possible in the stronger storms. Otherwise, mainly gentle to occasionally moderate southwesterly breezes will continue over the next several days with seas around 1-2 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Generally light west to southwest transport winds will continue through Saturday, then more variable on Monday. Dispersions will remain good overall each afternoon. Scattered showers and storms are expected again Saturday afternoon, but decreasing coverage is anticipated both Sunday and Monday. Gusty, erratic winds and dangerous lightning strikes will be possible. Drier air will move in over the weekend, but RH values will stay above critical levels. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall today and Saturday. If the storms are slow-moving, they could produce several inches of rain in a short period of time. This would lead to some nuisance to isolated flash flood concerns, particularly is low-lying or poor drainage areas. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 74 97 73 97 / 0 10 0 20 Panama City 78 93 78 92 / 10 10 10 20 Dothan 73 96 72 96 / 0 10 0 30 Albany 73 97 72 97 / 0 0 0 20 Valdosta 73 97 72 97 / 0 10 0 10 Cross City 74 93 74 95 / 40 40 0 30 Apalachicola 78 92 78 92 / 20 20 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Young LONG TERM....Young AVIATION...Reese MARINE...Young FIRE WEATHER...Young HYDROLOGY...Young  030 FXUS63 KGLD 220504 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1104 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe weather potential this evening is decreasing. If current trends persist, Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613 will be cancelled prior to 07Z. - Weekend precipitation chances mainly at night with showers and storms moving out of Colorado. Severe chances will be low with this activity. - Heat peaks today, then slightly cooler over the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 SVR Watch 613 is in effect for a limited portion of the area (west and north of Goodland) until 07Z. Radar/observational trends suggest that severe weather potential in the watch area may largely be tied to a long-lived supercell currently (at 03Z) progressing southward from the Nebraska Panhandle into northeast Colorado. Right-mover motion this evening is from the NNE. From a persistence standpoint, -if- the aforementioned supercell remains discrete, it's present course suggests that it would remain west of Yuma and Kit Carson counties in CO.. and that severe weather potential in the Goodland CWA may be contingent upon additional convective development. In a weak forcing regime, additional convective development will likely be a function of mesoscale forcing, e.g. an MCV emanating from ongoing long-lived convection. Bottom line, there is very low confidence in convective development/evolution over the next several hours. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1230 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Northwest flow continues today around a ridge centered near the Four Corners. Weak to moderate instability is building in the area with 40-50 kts of deep layer shear. Models have struggled in this pattern with the convection, and will probably do so once again today, with a wide range of solutions offered by the 12z CAMs. They are missing some of the mesoscale features which ultimately play an important role, such as the outflow boundary which is moving through areas north of I-70 originating from morning convection in Nebraska. While confidence is low in the details, generally expect to see isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms develop this afternoon north of Interstate 70. A supercell will be possible given the environmental parameters, capable of large hail, damaging winds and a brief tornado. Another cluster of storms may move across the area this evening, originating in southeast Wyoming and sustained by a strengthening low level jet. If those storms develop and cluster, may see another risk of damaging winds similar to last night. Overnight, the low level jet remains active with isentropic lift maximized over eastern parts of the area (east of Highway 25). May see elevated storms develop late near or just east of the area with a marginal wind and hail threat as MUCAPE lingers at 1000-1500 j/kg. Outflow from those storms will push a cold front through the area around 12z with winds shifting to the east and briefly gusty. May see patchy fog develop along the leading edge of the front as well, mainly in the Colorado/Kansas border area, but it would be transient. On Saturday the upper ridge axis will run from eastern Wyoming and Colorado to the Texas panhandle. Convection will develop in the afternoon over the Rockies and Front Range with the southwest flow, then move across the eastern plains and spreading into the area Saturday night. With the later arrival, probably not until after 03z, storms will be weakening but may still pose a marginal risk for damaging wind gusts as they make their way across the area through the overnight. The ridge flattens out on Sunday and extends from the Four Corners to the Texas panhandle. Zonal flow over the top through northern Colorado will initiate convection over the mountains and Front Range, and once again make the trek across the plains and into the area Sunday night. These will arrive slightly earlier, 00-02z, in far northeast Colorado and may still pose a marginal wind and hail threat, but with only weak instability forecast and deep layer shear around 20 kts, severe chances will be low. Storms will gradually weaken as they move east into the remainder of the area Sunday evening. The ridge strengthens a bit on Monday with height rises in Colorado, and the zonal flow is through southern Wyoming. Forecast instability is weak and generally less than 1000 j/kg, though deep layer shear does increase to around 40 kts. RFS suggests a few scattered storms developing, moving east and then southeast with the mean flow Monday afternoon and evening in areas generally north of Interstate 70 with perhaps a marginal risk for wind and hail. The temperature trend for the period will be near to slightly above normal through the weekend, then above normal on Monday with temperatures currently forecast in the mid to upper 90s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 202 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Synoptically, a ridge is forecast to be over the SW CONUS and currently looks to remain relatively stationary. Throughout the week, there appears to be a few shortwaves moving though the CWA, which may bring higher precipitation chances. High temperatures for the week are forecast to be in the 90s for the majority of the area. The "coolest" day for the period looks to be Wednesday, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s, whereas Friday looks to be the hottest with highs in the mid 90s. If the ridge begins to amplify or move eastward, as guidance hints, higher temperatures could be seen. Winds throughout the week are forecast to be calm to breezy, and relative humidity values are expected to be higher than 30%, which should help minimize fire weather concerns. Precipitation chances are present during the week. As some shortwaves move around the high, they will likely to be our main precipitation producers. The day currently with the highest precipitation chances is Tuesday. Guidance hints at some vorticity associated with the shortwave as it moves through Tuesday afternoon. Both CAPE and shear appear sufficient for severe storms; however, some guidance indicates a mismatch between higher/lower CAPE and lower/higher shear, which could lead to less organized storms. Looking at qpf, some guidance shows the possibility of heavy rainfall with these storms, which is something to keep in mind as we get closer to Tuesday. The rest of the week there is roughly a 15-30% chance of PoPs as various shortwaves move through the region. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1100 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 GLD: Aside from a potential for sub-VFR ceilings or fog an hour or two on either side of sunrise, VFR conditions will prevail through the 06Z TAF period. Breezy (20-30 knot) NE winds associated with convective outflow will affect the Goodland terminal for an hour or two at the beginning of the 06Z TAF period. Otherwise, light northeasterly or variable winds will prevail through sunrise, becoming ESE or SE and increasing to 10-15 knots during the late morning and persisting through the afternoon. MCK: Aside from a potential for sub-VFR ceilings or fog an hour or two on either side of sunrise, VFR conditions will prevail through the 06Z TAF period. Light northeasterly or variable winds will prevail through sunrise, becoming ESE or SE and increasing to 10-15 knots during the late morning and persisting through the afternoon. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Vincent SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...Holdren AVIATION...Vincent  023 FXUS63 KOAX 220504 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1204 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - More storms may develop west of a Neligh to Wahoo to Nemaha line (20-40% chance) after midnight. - Storms clear late Saturday morning leaving a pleasant day. - Periodic storm chances continue into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1105 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Hey, I did sfc analysis by hand tonight! It reveals a stalled front draped from near Clarinda, through the Omaha metro, to Albion and continuing west. Widely isolated showers continue across the area this evening, but severe weather never did materialize here despite the conditional threat earlier today. The atmosphere had the buoyancy and shear available, but due to cloud cover, initiation didn't happen in Nebraska. A few light showers lingered past sunset in far southwest Iowa along an elevated front. Expect the mostly dry conditions may be interrupted by redevelopment around 2:00 AM as a H5 shortwave pushes southeast through central Nebraska. Elevated CAPE peaks only at about 1,000 J/kg and effective shear values will be nerfed after the subtraction of the boundary layer (50 kts end up closer to 25 knots). The LLJ is weak and pointed farther west than usual. The 22Z SSCRAM suggests less than a 5% chance of severe hail or wind overnight. That might be a little low, but it's got the right idea. Have PoPs peaking near 30% at 6am in the SW 1/4th of the CWA before wrapping up by 9AM. Omaha, Norfolk, and points north and east should remain dry. .SATURDAY... The remainder of Saturday will be dry with sunny skies by noon. As the sfc pressure axis pushes through, light northerly winds will slowly become easterly by midnight. It'll be a great day to get some yard work done. Darn it. .SUNDAY... PoPs 45% (west) return on Sunday with a shortwave rounding the H5 ridge. Most will remain dry, but with the associated cloud cover, temps will slip by about 5 degrees. PoPs 40% (south) to 70% (north) climb higher after midnight, when 00Z guidance suggests a convective complex pushes through SD in the evening and into eastern Nebraska / western Iowa before sunrise Monday morning. .NEXT WEEK... The busy pattern continues. To date, OAX has issued its fourth most t-storm warnings this year (PoR 1986). Transient ridging ahead of a cutoff low traversing the Prairie provinces allows temps to climb a bit for Monday and Tuesday. That low's attendant cold front pushes through on Tuesday afternoon. This will bring another 40% chance of overnight thunderstorms thanks to the stalled front and isentropic upglide provided by the LLJ. 12Z global models suggest regular chance of precip and thunder through the work week as the area remains on the periphery of the southern high pressure dome. Looking for some change to hang your hopes on? All three deterministic global models develop zonal flow by next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions prevail at the TAF sites through the forecast period. Expect light and variable winds through the period. There is a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm developing and moving through southeastern Nebraska tonight, potentially impacting KLNK between 09Z and 11Z. Once showers and storms move out Saturday morning, expect quieter weather through early Sunday morning. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...ANW  033 FXUS64 KLUB 220504 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1204 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1202 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Hot temperatures will not let up through next week. - Isolated thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon and evening area wide. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A strong upper ridge will continue to persist across the area. Mild overnight lows in the 70s remain expected. Subtle height rises will allow for temperatures to increase even further Saturday and the Heat Advisory has been expected to include Lubbock. A weak shortwave will move over the area by evening. Best chances look to be generally east of I-27 where greatest forcing will occur, however a stray storm could occur anywhere. Again, brief locally strong gusts and downpours would be the main concern. These should taper off by late-evening with another quiet and mild evening thereafter. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 The aforementioned upper ridge will essentially stall in place for the next several days and very little change to the forecast is expected. Heat Advisory conditions look to continue the weekend along and east of I-27 and well into next week for areas off the Caprock. Storm chances should remain minimal, but may return by mid-to-late next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Thunderstorms have cleared all TAF sites early this morning with surface winds quickly turning back around to the south and becoming light. Winds will continue to swing to the southwest later this morning. Additional isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into the early evening. However, coverage is expected to be very low again so no mention was made in the TAF at the moment. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-030>032-035>038-041>044. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...01  044 FXUS64 KOHX 220504 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1204 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1201 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Low thunderstorm chances Saturday, primarily across the Plateau and southern Middle TN. - Overall drier with slightly below-normal temperatures this weekend with patchy fog Saturday and Sunday mornings. - Low to medium rain and storm chances next week with seasonal temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 1020 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Quiet conditions are expected to prevail tonight with the only concern being fog. Mostly clear skies and light winds will be supportive for fog overnight. Highest confidence in fog is across the Plateau, and short-term models support this as well with only low probability of 10-20% for fog west of the Plateau. Upper-level troughing remains in place over the eastern CONUS Saturday, and a weak front will allow for isolated thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon, mainly for areas near the TN/AL border and across the Plateau. Otherwise, it'll be a fairly nice Saturday with most of the area staying dry and seasonable temperatures in the upper-80s to low-90s. Upper-level troughing continues into Sunday and behind the front, Sunday promises to be a very nice day with dry conditions and slightly cooler temperatures in the mid to upper-80s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1020 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Slightly below normal temperatures continue into Monday, but the aforementioned trough moves east by Tuesday. With ridging to the west, northwest flow sets up over Middle TN through the end of the week. Temperatures will warm a few degrees, but will still be seasonably normal. Northwest flow also allows for daily low to medium rain & thunderstorm chances to return Tuesday through the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Mainly VFR conditions, however fog will be an issue for CSV/SRB for the next couple of nights. Look for VLIFR to LIFR conditions starting around 07-08Z for each with improvement back to VFR by 13Z. Winds will be very light to calm overnight with occasional northwest gusts of 15-18 kts on Saturday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 92 63 88 61 / 10 0 0 0 Clarksville 91 63 87 61 / 10 0 0 0 Crossville 84 59 81 57 / 10 10 0 0 Columbia 93 65 90 62 / 10 10 0 0 Cookeville 86 61 83 59 / 10 0 0 0 Jamestown 85 61 81 58 / 10 10 0 0 Lawrenceburg 91 64 88 61 / 10 10 0 0 Murfreesboro 93 65 89 61 / 10 0 0 0 Waverly 92 65 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Clements LONG TERM....Clements AVIATION.....Unger  183 FXUS63 KIND 220507 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 107 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated/scattered showers and a few t-storms are possible late tonight...and again Saturday afternoon, mainly east. - Cooler and less humid weather expected Sunday through Tuesday with highs mainly in the 70s to near 80. - Areas of late night/early morning fog will occur Saturday and Sunday nights. - Dry weather expected Monday and Tuesday with increasing chances for rain and storms mid-late next week. && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 959 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Fair conditions will continue this evening amid weak surface high pressure departing under increasing clouds coming off upstream convection. Approaching supporting wave will bring increasing chances of RWs and embedded isolated thunder...granted any cells are expected to be weaker than present activity over northern Illinois, with possibly a stray strong/marginally severe wind gust near/west of Lafayette during the early overnight. Otherwise widely scattered showers to cross much of the region while overall dissipating into pre-dawn hours. Although better chances of modest regeneration across northern counties which will be closer to vort support...and low-moderate chances of a few additional showers towards dawn near the cold front entering the CWA's northwestern corner. Cannot rule out patchy visibility reductions from fog. Tonight will be the last period with overall light, if not variable winds. Low temperatures to display a modest range given overnight cloud cover, from low 60s near Muncie to 66 in Vincennes. && .DISCUSSION (This evening through Friday)... Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Late this Afternoon... Elevated showers over northern Indiana are indicative of a weak lead shortwave. An instability axis extends across far eastern portions of the forecast area northward into NE Indiana. Recent convective development in NE Indiana was occurring in a zone of modest low level convergence. There is a small chance that an isolated shower or TS will develop in extreme northeastern zones before activity weakens around sunset. Tonight and Saturday... Vigorous convective development will continue to the northwest of central Indiana across parts of southern WI/far northern IL and eastern IA the remainder of the afternoon into the evening. This activity is forming in a broad convergence zone ahead of a seasonably strong shortwave trough and within a moderate to strong instability axis with MLCAPE values from 2000-3000 J/KG. TS activity in several lines will develop develop S-SE towards central Indiana overnight. However, instability decreases markedly with SE extent, with MUCAPE under 1000 J/KG across all of central Indiana overnight. Time of day combined with minimal instability suggests that the severe weather threat is close to zero across the forecast area. Well south of any precip and/or convective clouds overnight, patchy fog is expected across southern portions of central Indiana where light winds and mostly clear skies will prevail. The weak cold front associated with this progressive system will push across the region Saturday morning. There is some indications that a secondary shear induced mid level vorticity max will move through the region on Saturday afternoon. With residual instability, a few lower topped showers/TS will be possible behind the main cold front but ahead of this mid level feature/surface convergence boundary during the afternoon, mainly over eastern zones. Have maintained pops in these regions. Would not be overly surprised with some renegade showers across western zones where some instability remains, but for the sake of consistency will leave out of the forecast. Saturday night through Sunday... In the wake of the shortwave/cold front Saturday surface high pressure will gradually build southward through the northern/central plains into the upper MS valley. Broad NW low level flow will support some lake enhanced clouds and showers Saturday evening and again during Sunday afternoon in far northern areas mainly during the period when daytime heating/convective overturning is maximized. A stout mid level inversion noted on forecast soundings should limit convective cloud depth and only a slight chance of showers is currently forecast. Sunday night through Tuesday... Broad area of surface high pressure will push SE into the Ohio Valley through the period, providing for much drier conditions, with dewpts falling into the 50s. As a result most areas will see low temperatures in the 50s Sunday night. Light winds and mostly clear skies will lead to another night with areas of fog Sunday night. A weak system in the NW flow aloft is expected to move across the MO/mid-MS valleys Monday into Tuesday. At present the only expected effect from this system will be increasing mid-high clouds. This should limit fog chances Monday night and keep high temperatures in the 70s most areas Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday through Friday... Another upper wave/surface cold front will move through during the period. Confidence in timing is very low considering the system is currently off the west coast, so for now will only have some low PoPs. Seasonable temperatures are expected with increasing humidity with increasing SW flow in the low levels. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 106 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Impacts: - Isolated/scattered -SHRA/TSRA possible through 13-15Z - Low chance for brief fog at outlying sites this morning - WNW winds gusting up to 20-25KT Saturday afternoon/late day Discussion: Scattered convection and isolated thunder will be possible through 13-15Z as a disturbance moves across the region. Low confidence on MVFR from convection...with also a brief window of potential MVFR from fog at terminals outside of KIND, towards dawn. It does appear increasingly likely brief MVFR ceilings are possible at KLAF between 12-16Z so added a TEMPO group. Overall light/variable flow tonight will yield to stronger post- frontal flow Saturday midday-afternoon, with winds veering slightly within 270-320 degrees, occasionally gusting up to 20-25KT through late afternoon. Morning cloud cover could limit diurnal mixing and peak gusts slightly. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...AGM AVIATION...Melo DISCUSSION...Crosbie  533 FXUS62 KFFC 220510 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 110 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon will pose a damaging wind gust threat across Central Georgia. Frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall possible with any storms. - Warm and humid again today but slightly 'cooler' and more seasonal temperatures return this weekend into early next week. - Mostly dry this weekend with low daily rain chances returning for most by mid-week next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 An upper level longwave trough currently extends from the northern Great Lakes towards the Deep South, and will continue to amplify as its axis shifts eastward towards the Atlantic coast. A surface front associated with this trough has entered far northwest Georgia. The movement of the trough will help advance the frontal boundary south and east through the afternoon and evening. Areas along and south of the front will be the focus for thunderstorm activity amid a warm and moist environment. Temperatures in portions of central and east Georgia will climb into the into the mid to upper 90s (compared to low 90s in areas north of I-85) while dewpoints remain in the low 90s. Robust destabilization within this hot and humid airmass combined with forcing ahead of the front will allow storms to develop quickly during the remainder of the afternoon. This will culminate in high-end chance to low-end likely PoPs in areas generally south/east of Atlanta from 4 PM to 8 PM, with gradually diminishing chances during the evening with the loss of daytime heating. With SBCAPE values between 2500-3500 J/kg, DCAPE values between 800- 1200 J/kg, and precipitable water values of 1.9-2.2 inches, several storms this afternoon and evening will be capable of becoming severe. Downburst winds up to 60 mph will be the primary threat with any severe storms that occur, which will be capable of damaging trees and powerlines. Storms over the course of the day will also contain frequent lightning and be highly efficient rainfall producers given deep moisture. This could lead to isolated flooding concerns, especially if stronger storms linger over urban or flood- prone areas. On Saturday, the trough axis will clear Georgia to the east, pushing the frontal boundary through the forecast area. Noticeably drier air will filter in behind this front, lowering dewpoints into the 60s across the majority of the area. Though highs will still rise into the low 90s, it will feel less oppressive given these dewpoints. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in east-central Georgia closest to the front on Saturday afternoon, while clear conditions are forecast elsewhere across the forecast area. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday morning through next Thursday) Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 By the end of the weekend, temps will have fallen into the upper 80s and low 90s with RH values in the afternoon will drop into the mid to low 40s bringing heat index values down and making it feel very dry for this time of year. A welcome relief from the hot an humid weather that had seem to be stuck over GA for the past month. With this dry airmass behind the front, we'll also get a break from thunderstorms during the afternoon as well until Wednesday when winds become more southerly and we start to pull moisture back in from the Gulf. This weekend and early next week will be a great opportunity to be outside without hating it. After Wednesday, the upper level flow becomes more zonal and we'll start to see a return to the diurnal pattern that we are used to. With that pattern, we are also expecting a slow return of triple digit heat indices for the second half of the work week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 109 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Mostly VFR though a period of patchy SCT MVFR and IFR cigs may develop most likely between 08-12z. Patchy low cigs 4-6SM also possible. Light and VRB wind overnight picking up from the NW for the northern sites and SW to W at the southern sites. Once the front clears CSG/MCN winds will veer NW. Speeds 5-8kts. Iso to Sct tsra Sat aftn mainly south of MCN and CSG. Chances too low to mention in TAF at this time. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium confidence on lower cigs tonight. High confidence on all other elements. 07 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 69 92 65 91 / 10 0 0 10 Atlanta 72 91 68 91 / 10 0 10 10 Blairsville 63 83 59 84 / 10 0 0 0 Cartersville 68 90 65 90 / 10 0 10 10 Columbus 73 94 71 94 / 10 0 10 20 Gainesville 69 89 65 89 / 10 0 0 10 Macon 72 94 69 93 / 10 10 0 10 Rome 68 91 64 90 / 10 0 10 10 Peachtree City 70 92 66 91 / 10 0 10 10 Vidalia 73 96 71 96 / 10 0 0 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...King LONG TERM....Vaughn AVIATION...07  577 FXUS63 KILX 220511 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1211 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms exists this evening along and north of a line from Beardstown to Lincoln to Gibson City. Hail (15%), wind (15%), and tornado (2%) threats will exist in this area, with lower probabilities further south to near I-70. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Weak high pressure ridge ~1018 mb was over near central IL early this afternoon and providing a delightful late summer day with mostly sunny skies. Temperatures were in the lower 80s at 2 pm while dewpoints were in the mid to upper 60s except lower 70s from Galesburg and Macomb west/nw. A weak cold front was over central WI into southeast Iowa. Radar mosaic shows scattered convection over northern IL from I-88 north into southern WI and tracking ESE. Moderately unstable airmass in place over the IL river valley where MLCAPES 1500-2500 j/kg nw of I-55 while bulk shear values of 30-35 kts over IL river valley and over 40 kts west of IL over central and northern MO. SPC just issued a mesoscale discussion over northern half of IL north of Lincoln where severe storm threat is increasing and monitoring a possible watch box. HRRR and RRFS models show broken band of convection moving into far northern CWA just after sunset and toward I-55 by late evening, and weakening as it moves toward I-70 around 3 am. SPC continues slight risk of severe storms this evening along and north of a line from Beardstown to Lincoln to Gibson City. Hail (15%), wind (15%), and tornado (2%) threats will exist in the Slight Risk area. CAPES reach 2000-3000 j/kg over the IL river valley nw of I-55 while wind shear values 30-40 kts and also in favorable region of se moving upper level jet for enhanced lift. Further south a Marginal Risk exists as far southeast as near I-70, with mainly low end hail/wind (5%) threats for this evening in this area. WPC Day1 outlook has marginal risk of excessive rainfall over northern CWA this evening where pockets of 1 inch or more of rain possible on a saturated ground. But convection bands will be more progressive than Wed night system so rainfall amounts should be much lower. Quieter weather is generally expected this weekend into early next week over central/se IL, though a few model members show isolated convection (20% or less) over ne CWA Sat afternoon where MUCAPES get to 1000-1500 j/kg. The stronger short wave forcing is ne of CWA Sat afternoon over ne IL into northern IN where better chance of convection will be. A Northwest upper level flow to prevail over IL through middle of next week with strong mid/upper level ridge over Southwest States and upper level low/trof in eastern Canada and northeast US. Another northern stream short wave disturbance to move se into the Midwest for middle of next week and bring next chance of convection around Wednesday though current NBM just has slight pops over area. Temps to be near a bit below normal early next week with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s Sun/Monday and coolest night Sunday night with lows in mid to upper 50s. Temps moderate a bit for middle of next week along with increasing humidity levels/dewpoints with highs back in the low to mid 80s Tue-Fri (mid to upper 80s southern CWA Wed-Fri). The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8-14 Day Outlook for Aug 29-Sep 4 has 40-50% chance of above normal temperatures over central/se IL and precipitation trending near normal except slight above normal near the Indiana border. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A line of thunderstorms will continue southeast across central Illinois during the early overnight hours, but should be clear of the I-72terminals by around 07Z. Behind the storms, winds will gradually set up out of the northwest the remainder of the period, picking up into the 10-12kt range during the day Saturday. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...07 DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...Deubelbeiss  536 FXUS63 KMPX 220510 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1210 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable temperatures over the next week with both highs and lows within a few degrees of normal. - Chance for some thunderstorms in east central Minnesota this evening, next chance for rain early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 142 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 As temperatures have risen this afternoon the low morning's stratus has lifted and been replaced with fair weather cumulus clouds. A frontal passage this evening into the early overnight hours will provide for a chance for a few isolated thunderstorms. Shear is poor and the thermal profile does not allow for much instability. So strong storms are not expected. There looks to be enough instability for some thunderstorms, mainly in east central Minnesota. By the time it gets into western Wisconsin the diurnal temperature drop will lower instability such that chances will decrease further. Behind this frontal passage high pressure will move in for the weekend. This will give us an overall very nice weekend with mostly sunny to sunny skies and highs up near 80 both days. Clear skies will allow for ample mixing though and we could see some gusty winds in the afternoon, especially on Saturday. Nothing super high, with gusts up around 20-25 mph. Clear skies will allow for ample radiational cooling both Saturday and Sunday nights. Sunday night will also see some CAA so temperatures as low as the 40s will be possible in parts of northeast MN and northwest WI. On Monday the high pressure will start to move out keeping the daytime fairly similar to the weekend. Late Monday into Tuesday is the next anticipated frontal passage. How much moisture this frontal passage will have to work with is the main question right now. Forecast soundings from the global deterministic models show ample high and mid level saturation with less low level saturation. When looking towards ensemble QPF there is a good amount of spread still which makes the lower NBM PoPs make sense. NBM has kept the PoP chances low to reflect this spread within the ensemble guidance. The spread should decrease over the weekend and provide for a better idea of when and where rain chances will be. The next rain chance past Mon/Tue would be towards the end of the next week and as expected for this time range there is a large spread on timing and level of impact. All of the main global deterministic models have something in that time range though, so it is worth keeping an eye on. Overall no strong temperature advection over the week next week. Which supports the overall near normal temperature forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR through the period with passing mid-level clouds overnight. Northwest winds increase after sunrise with gusts of 20-25 kts developing by mid-morning. Winds diminish by sunset with light northerly winds tomorrow night. KMSP...Northwest wind gusts of 20-25 kts could develop as early as 8 AM, but are more likely to begin around 9-10 AM. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind N 5 kts. MON...VFR, chc -SHRA late night. Wind S 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR, chc -SHRA early. Wind SW 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NDC AVIATION...ETA  603 FXUS62 KMLB 220511 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 111 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 256 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - The typical Florida summertime pattern will persist locally through this weekend and into next week with daily afternoon showers and storms forecast across east central Florida. - Storm hazards today will include frequent to excessive lightning, strong wind gusts of 45-55 mph, small hail, and heavy downpours leading to rainfall accumulations of 1-3". There is a 5% chance for thunderstorm wind gusts up to 60 mph along the coast from the Cape northward. - Heat remains a concern across east central Florida, though peak heat indices are anticipated to stay below advisory criteria. Regardless, residents and visitors to the area are encouraged to practice heat safety! && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Current-Tonight... Satellite imagery shows a weak mid-level low along the northeast FL/southeast GA boarder this afternoon. Associated mid- level boundaries wrap the southern side of the low stretching across portions of northeast and central Florida. Despite some intrusion of dry air aloft, cloud cover and PWATs 1.9-2.0" suggest enough moisture to support at least scattered coverage of afternoon and evening storms. Environmental parameters remain similar to yesterday with cold 500mb temperatures around -7.5C and DCAPE values 800-1,200 J/Kg. Strong storms that develop again today will be capable of frequent to excessive lightning, wind gusts 45-55 mph, and small hail. The strongest storms should occur along boundary collisions, particularly collisions with the east coast sea breeze, and SPC has highlighted a Marginal risk for severe storms along the coast from the Cape northward. Here, there is a 5% chance for downburst wind gusts to 60 mph. Strong storms will also be capable of heavy downpours, and quick rainfall accumulations of 2-3 inches may result in minor or nuisance flooding. Showers and storms may linger a little bit into the evening across a few locations with dry conditions then forecast overnight. Saturday-Sunday... Pulses of shortwave energy continue to pass overhead this weekend as a mid-level trough slowly slides across the eastern U.S. A surface front remains stationary across the southeast while a surface ridge axis holds near or across south Florida. This will keep light offshore flow in place, predominantly out of the southwest. A drier airmass will favor slightly below normal rain chances for much of east central Florida on Saturday (~20-40%). Major global models then become split on moisture and rain chances on Sunday. Have shown a slight upward trend in Sunday's rain chances with this forecast package, suggesting more seasonal coverage of scattered afternoon showers and storms (40-60%). However, slightly lower forecast confidence exists due to wide model discrepancy. Cold temperatures aloft (~ -8C @ 500mb), high DCAPE (900+ J/kg), and efficient surface heating should allow for a few strong storms to develop each afternoon, and storms will be capable of frequent lightning, gusty downburst winds of 40-55 mph, and small hail. Heavy downpours within slow moving storms may result in localized nuisance flooding. Outside of showers and storms, near to slightly above seasonal temperatures are forecast. Highs mostly in the low 90s locally reach the mid 90s across portions of the interior. Trends continue to hold below Heat Advisory criteria with peak heat index values forecast to range 100-106F. Monday-Thursday... Troughing across the eastern U.S. gradually broadens as low pressure weakens and lifts northeast through portions of Canada. Surface ridging becomes reestablished across central Florida, and a loose pressure gradient will maintain light southerly winds, often becoming variable early each day. Winds shift onshore around 10 mph as the sea breeze develops each afternoon. Below seasonal rain chances are forecast early in the week before a more typical pattern of scattered afternoon and evening storms returns generally from Wednesday onward (~40-60%). Temperatures show little change, persisting in the low to mid 90s each afternoon with peak heat index values between 102-107F. && .MARINE... Issued at 256 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A surface ridge axis remains south of the local waters through the weekend. This will maintain a period of light offshore flow, shifting south to southeast in the afternoon as the sea breeze develops. The ridge axis lifts northward on Monday, settling across the central Florida peninsula into late week. Light southerly flow becomes established across the waters from Monday onward, still turning onshore daily with the sea breeze. Seas mostly hold around 2 ft, briefly building to 3 ft offshore this weekend. Isolated to scattered offshore moving storms area forecast in the afternoons and evenings, and stronger storms will be capable of wind gusts to 34 kts or greater, frequent cloud to water lightning, and locally higher seas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 111 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Continued quiet with predominant VFR through midday. Light SSW winds up to 7 KT, becoming SE at coastal terminals this afternoon. Expecting 30-40% storm coverage today, with potentially a later start. With that in mind, have introduced PROB30s at many terminals centered between 21Z and 01Z depending on the airfield. For MCO, 22Z to 01Z appears to hold the highest chance for convection. With drier air aloft, intense downdrafts will be a concern. Stronger storms will once again carry a risk of gusts 35+ kt and brief LIFR/IFR restrictions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 94 75 92 75 / 40 20 30 10 MCO 95 76 93 76 / 30 20 40 10 MLB 94 76 93 76 / 40 30 40 10 VRB 93 75 93 75 / 40 20 30 10 LEE 93 75 91 75 / 30 10 40 10 SFB 94 76 92 76 / 40 20 40 10 ORL 95 77 93 77 / 30 20 40 10 FPR 92 75 93 75 / 40 20 30 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Law AVIATION...Heil  694 FXUS63 KGID 220512 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1212 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Area of scattered showers/storms continues to push SE across the area this afternoon...a trend that will continue into early this evening. Not out of the question a few could be on the strong-severe side...large hail/damaging wind would be the main hazards. - Expecting a lull in activity mid-late evening, before another chance for showers/storms moves into the area later tonight (mainly after midnight). There will again the potential for some storms to be strong-severe tonight into early Sat AM...large hail/damaging wind again the main threats. - Additional, periodic thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast this weekend into the new work week...primarily favoring the evening/overnight hours. - Not looking at any notable swings in temperatures either way through this 7-day forecast period. Mainly 80s...some 70s possible on Sunday...90s possible at times through the week across southwestern areas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 346 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Currently through the rest of this afternoon... Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to make their way southeast across the forecast area today...a trend that will continue though mid-late afternoon hours. Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data showing this activity being driven by a weaker shortwave disturbance sliding out of central SD and into NNErn NE. This disturbance is embedded in larger scale northwesterly flow set up across the Central/Nrn Plains...between ridging extending northward out of the Desert SW and broad troughing across the Great Lakes/Midwest region, while a larger area of low pressure spins off the Pac NW coast. The surface pattern across the forecast area has been a bit of a messy one throughout the day...between just an overall weaker pressure gradient along with any even weak outflow boundaries produced by this activity today...winds are variable in direction. Most speeds have been around 5-10 MPH, a few spots closer to any storms have had gusts closer to 25-30 MPH at least for a brief time. For the rest of this afternoon-early evening...main story will continue to lie with continued potential for scattered showers/storms pushing SE through and eventually out of the forecast area. Near/out ahead of this activity, SPC meso page showing MLCAPE values exceeding 2000 j/kg, with deeper layer/effective shear of at least 30kts. Storms working their way SE will continue to have the potential to be strong/severe...one thing working against activity is that the upper level disturbance/lift just isn't overly strong, which isn't helping overcome some lingering capping. Large hail/damaging winds would be the primary threats. One good thing about the scattered nature of this activity is that so far, areas that had been on the wetter side over the past few days are getting a chance to dry up a bit. Later tonight on into this weekend... Once this ongoing activity slides off to our SE, models continue to show a relative lull across the area through the evening hours. Winds should be turning more east-northeasterly, with models showing an area of sfc low pressure setting up off to our west- southwest...but speeds look to remain on the lighter side overall. A few models try to bring another round of isolated activity back into the area already by around 06Z, but there is more model support for the timing of the next round of showers/storms to be closer to/after 08Z or so. Models showing this activity developing into a NW-SE orientated swath across the forecast area...tied to another weaker, mainly mid-level shortwave disturbance moving through, aided some by frontogenetical forcing closer to 850mb. Hi-res models showing this elevated activity could have CAPE values around 1500 j/kg to tap into, with deeper layer shear around 30-40kts possible...keeping the potential for strong-severe storms in place. Entire CWA remains in the SPC Day 1 Slight Risk area through tonight...large hail and damaging winds remain the primary threats, though additional heavy rainfall rates are not out of the question as well. Not out of the question that some activity could linger into the morning hours on Saturday...and uncertainty in the exact timing of that departure is not high...but outside of that models are in pretty good agreement showing the daytime hours being dry. Aloft, models showing continued northwesterly flow across the area...if anything that low pressure system currently off the Pac NW starts pushing inland, giving the main ridge axis a bit of an eastward push. Winds look to remain on the lighter side around 10-15 MPH, remaining easterly. Forecast highs are in the mid-upper 80s. Models showing another upper level shortwave disturbance riding around the edge of the ridge axis Saturday evening through Sunday AM...bringing another chance for showers/storms to the entire forecast area. The area is currently not outlooked in the SPC Day 2 outlook (just in general thunder)...with models currently showing the better axis of instability setting up just off to our west, and deeper layer shear is on the weaker side. Confidence in precipitation chances Sunday-Sunday night is on the lower side (outside of any lingering activity from Sat night)...with NBM PoPs mainly clipping northern and eastern portions of of the forecast area. Models not showing any notable change in the upper level pattern...and winds turn more southerly as sfc troughing develops over the High Plains. Forecast highs are more in the upper 70s for central/eastern areas, low-mid 80s further west...but that will be dependent on timing of any lingering precipitation. Next week... Periodic thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast as we get into the new work week...but honestly, not a ton of confidence at this point in the timing/tracking of any of the upper level disturbances driving these chances. Models show varying amplitude of the main upper level ridging through the week...so a stronger northward push of the ridge could push better precip chances out of the area, a more zonal pattern could bring more chances...plenty of details to iron out in the coming days. Not seeing any notable swings in temperatures either way through the week...with forecast highs mainly in the mid 80s-low 90s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Sub-VFR conditions possible tonight in storms along with patchy fog. Patchy fog has recently developed over the area and may continue off and on through the mid morning hours. Visibilities are favored to stay largely at or above MVFR though there is some potential for briefly lower visibility. Scattered thunderstorms currently near KVTN are expected to move into the area around 8-13z. These storm could also result in sub-VFR visibilities though confidence in IFR or lower visibility is too low to include in the TAF at this time. Have indicated the fog/storm potential in TEMPO/PROB30 groups. Skies clear as storms exit the area by the mid- morning hours on Saturday. FEW- SCT mid- high level clouds continue through the end of the TAF period. Light and variable winds become easterly during the day before becoming light and variable again Saturday evening. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...Davis  773 FXUS63 KLOT 220515 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1215 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. A few storms could become severe in the evening with damaging winds and hail the main threats, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. - Dangerous swimming conditions are expected at Porter County, Indiana Lake Michigan beaches Saturday, then all Illinois and Indiana Lake Michigan beaches late Saturday night and Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Early this afternoon, a decaying MCS is pushing south across far northern IL along an north-south oriented instability gradient draped very roughly along the I-39 corridor. Additionally, scattered showers are moving east near and north of the Kankakee River valley as a subtle leading shortwave works across. This MCS has been on a very gradual weakening trend, but it managed to hold together much better than any recent guidance had thought. It's still generating a fair amount of lightning and pockets of heavier rainfall near its leading edge which will likely persist as it continues to drop south across the Chicago metro through the afternoon. No strong or severe storms are expected through mid-afternoon with this system, but embedded downpours will likely remain. Farther upstream, a more potent shortwave trough axis is swinging into the upper Midwest coincident with a surface cold front stretching from western WI southwest into northeast and central IA. It's along and ahead of the front this evening where we expect a chance for severe convection. The first showers have just started to go up along the front near La Crosse. Thunderstorms are expected to blossom along the boundary as it continues southeastward and eventually crosses into northern IL near the end of the afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis suggests instability is building quickly west of I- 39 in a region of efficient theta-e advection ahead of the front. CAM guidance has been rather consistent on a tongue of 2,500 to 3,000 Joules of MLCAPE building into our western and northwestern CWA by late afternoon. It's not clear the quality of the thermo environment farther east this evening between this MCS, added daytime cloud cover, and eventually diurnal cooling into the evening. All along, guidance had been resolving notably less instability with eastward extent largely owing to a drier low level airmass and diurnal cooling through the evening. However, the added rain and cloud cover could be enough to greatly inhibit much of a severe threat east of the Fox Valley and especially into northwest Indiana, but there's not great confidence there. Effective shear this evening is marginal to fair at about 25 to 35 kt, highest in our west. However, models do resolve a veering low level shear profile which would support a low-end tornado threat where the low levels can destabilize sufficiently. Even when discounting this ongoing MCS, CAMs had been consistently hanging onto some low level capping roughly east of the Fox Valley through the afternoon, and would imagine that's even more likely now, before being further reinforced by diurnal cooling. For that reason, this evening's marginal tornado threat will be focused west of the Fox Valley and north of I-80 where the more supportive low level thermo environment is anticipated. This is also where the severe wind and hail threat will be maximized given the greater instability and generally more support expected from the left exit region of a 700 mb jet max out to our west. Severe hail and damaging winds are on the table area-wide but it's not clear the eastward/southeastward extent of deep convection this evening and it's very possible much of the area is spared from severe weather. Areas of very heavy rainfall are expected as well, in addition to the ongoing pockets of heavy rain within the remnant MCS. The storms look progressive enough in nature to avoid many widespread flooding concerns, but scattered pockets of 1-2" with the evening coverage alone is a strongly favored signal among guidance which would likely lead to localized flooding impacts, mainly in low-lying and other flood prone areas. The severe threat looks to exit the area to the southeast shortly after midnight. The upper trough will continue digging into the Great Lakes region through tomorrow and drive a vort max across WI and Lake Michigan during the day tomorrow. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will attempt to develop on the back side of the system and fall on parts of the area tomorrow afternoon. With the cooler mid level air spilling over, as many as 1,500 to 2,000 Joules of MUCAPE is favored to develop over NE IL and NW IN for the afternoon. Nothing too strong or severe is anticipated, but if one or two more robust updrafts can develop and survive through significant dry air aloft, it may be enough to spit out some locally heavy rain and gusty thunderstorm winds. Most of the area will be staying dry tomorrow with highs forecast in the upper 70s to around 80. Strong northerly winds will develop on Lake Michigan tomorrow and generate high waves and dangerous currents at northwest Indiana beaches leading to hazardous swimming conditions. Such conditions will work west to include the Illinois lakeshore for Sunday. High pressure will dominate the Midwest and Great Lakes regions early next week keeping conditions largely quiet. Daily highs are forecast to range from the middle 70s to lower 80s with rain chances looking to return closer to midweek. Doom && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A cold front will move through the airspace this morning causing winds to transition from a southwesterly to northwesterly direction. A 2 to 4 hour period of MVFR cigs may move down the lake toward daybreak behind the front, favoring GYY where a TEMPO for BKN015 has been introduced. Thereafter, northwesterly winds will increase in magnitude as mixing commences with a few gusts up to 20 kt from mid morning through early afternoon. A few showers and thunderstorms may develop during the 19-23Z tine window particularly near ORD/MDW/GYY, but opted to withhold mention for now given current expectations for sparse coverage (<30% change at any given terminal). Toward the end of the TAF period, wind magnitudes should decrease toward the 5 to 10 kt range. Borchardt && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 10 AM CDT this morning through Sunday evening for INZ002. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  776 FXUS65 KPSR 220515 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1015 PM MST Fri Aug 21 2026 .UPDATE...06Z Aviation Discussion && .KEY MESSAGES... - High temperatures reach or exceed 110 degrees nearly every day through the next week and will be within a few degrees of daily records, while morning lows remain unusually warm. - Extreme Heat Warning in effect through next Friday evening with daily Major to Extreme HeatRisk. - Isolated thunderstorms will primarily favor higher terrain areas through this weekend, with drier and less favorable conditions next week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Extreme heat will be the primary weather hazard through the short, and long, term forecast. Latest objective analysis shows a 599dam high centered near the Four Corners region, with 596-598dam heights over the local area. Heights of this magnitude are at or above the 99th percentile of sounding climatology. So, it is no surprise that forecast high temperatures this afternoon, and through this weekend, will be within a few degrees of daily records, topping out around 110-116 degrees. Morning low temperatures will also remain very warm and near daily record warm lows, in the mid 80s to low 90s, offering little to no relief from the daytime heat. This combo will lead to widespread Major HeatRisk through the weekend and an Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect. The thunderstorm chances for the lower deserts this afternoon are not great, due to the warm air aloft and drier air that moved in aloft as well. However, surface dew point temperatures remain seasonally elevated, ranging from the mid-50s to mid-60s. This is contributing to high SBCAPE values early this afternoon, up to and in excess of 1500 J/kg. This setup was resulting in cu development over prominent terrain features as of 1 PM MST and strong storms were already going over southeast AZ where mesoanalysis was showing an uncapped environment. The cap over much of south- central AZ and points westward, although relatively weak (SBCIN between -20 to -40 J/kg) will likely keep convective development reserved to the prominent terrain features, like the Table Top Mtns, Kofas, and perhaps Pinal Mtns. Instability is also expected to decline through the rest of the afternoon as the PBL continues to mix out. This will inhibit updraft strength with time. Any storm that does go up this afternoon will be capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts, due to high DCAPE values up to 1800-2000 J/kg. An outflow may move up into south-central AZ later this evening from southeast AZ storms, but it will likely take a very strong outflow to trigger additional activity in northwest Pinal and Maricopa Counties. Guidance shows boundary layer moisture will drop into tomorrow, with afternoon dew point temperatures across the lower deserts mostly in the mid-50s. This will result in lower SBCAPE values, but surface temperatures will be slightly hotter and hi-res models show weaker inhibition, if not uncapped, and slightly steeper mid-level lapse rates. This may support slightly better coverage of afternoon convection tomorrow versus today, but still focusing primarily over the prominent terrain features. Strong to locally severe wind gusts and blowing dust will be the primary hazard with any storm tomorrow afternoon, with high DACPE values again. It still may take one good outflow or multiple outflows and outflow collisions to trigger storms near/in the Phoenix area. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/... Model uncertainty remains for the first half of next week, primarily with respect to thunderstorm chances, as the position of the high is likely to set up somewhere over eastern New Mexico and western Texas by Monday. There is good global ensembleconsensus in a brief increase in moisture and instability Sunday evening into Monday, most notably across southwest AZ and southeast CA, but NBM forecast PoPs are mostly under 15% for the lower deserts both days. At this point, we could continue to see mostly slight chances favoring the high terrain into early next week, but if moisture does eventually improve enough storm chances are likely to be higher than what the NBM is depicting. By Tuesday, drier air will filter back into the region as the subtropical high begins to retrograde back over our region. This will limit low end rain chances almost exclusively to the higher terrain areas with the lower deserts remaining dry. By the latter half of next week, the NBM shows PoPs being confined to the Mogollon Rim with no chances for our CWA. Temperatures are expected to continue to be more influenced by the strong subtropical high as H5 heights hover between 593-596dm across the Desert Southwest through early next week. Daytime highs are not expected to change much from Sunday to Monday, barring any significant change with the convective chances. As mentioned above, by Tuesday the subtropical high will start to retrograde back to the west and the center will eventually settle over AZ/NM during the latter half of the workweek. The high is also expected to strengthen to around 596-598dam during this time. The combination of the center settling over our region and strengthening will result in temperatures heating up to around 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Afternoon highs (morning lows) ware forecast in the 110-116 (85-95) degree range across the lower deserts and in the 100-110 (75-85) degree range across the higher terrain areas. The increase in temperatures will also result in an increase in HeatRisk, with widespread Extreme HeatRisk forecast for the majority of the CWA by Wednesday. There is high confidence already in the heat forecast for next week. So, the Extreme Heat Warning was been extended through next Friday and will likely need to be expanded to more areas by the middle of the week. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0515Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major aviation concerns are expected through early Saturday afternoon under SCT to sometimes BKN cloud decks. Winds will follow familiar diurnal trends with periods of VRB conditions during the overnight hours. Forecast confidence decreases for late Saturday afternoon into the evening timeframe. There is a signal that VCSH/VCTS will initiate as early as 23Z, though rain chances are only around 20% at this time. To reflect convective uncertainty, PROB30 groups have been added to each metro terminal. If storms do develop, they could provide multiple outflows, resulting in gusty and erratic winds, and depending on where the outflow originate, BLDU could also become a operational factor. Changes in subsequent TAF updates should be anticipated. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation concerns are expected through the front half of the TAF period. Winds will favor a westerly component at KIPL, while VRB conditions will be common at KBLH through Saturday morning. Forecast confidence decreases as we transition into the afternoon timeframe due to uncertainty of convective activity. VCTS have been hinted at for KIPL, but rain chances currently stand at <10%. This TS signal has been consistent for the past several hours, so as to not completely ignore the potential, a PROB30 group has been added to the TAF. Gusty westerly/southwesterly winds and brief reductions in VIS will be the main concerns with any storms that come to fruition. Convection looks as if it will remain outside the vicinity of KBLH, but any changes in forecast guidance may yield the addition of a PROB30 or VCTS into that TAF as well. && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and seasonally dry conditions are expected nearly every day, through next week. Aside from a brief increase in moisture Sunday- Monday, minimum RH values each afternoon will be around 12-18% (15-25% Sun-Mon). Temperatures will range 5-10 degrees above normal through the next week, with lower desert highs eclipsing 110 degrees most afternoons. There will be slight chances for storms each afternoon through this weekend, but mostly favoring higher terrain areas. Drier conditions, with lower storm chances are expected by the middle of next week. Outside of thunderstorm outflow winds, winds will follow the typical diurnal tendencies with some modest afternoon upslope gustiness. && .CLIMATE... Record highs: Date Phoenix Yuma El Centro ---- ------- ---- --------- Aug 21 114 in 2019 115 in 1969 117 in 1969 Aug 22 113 in 2011 115 in 1969 117 in 1969 Aug 23 114 in 2011 115 in 2011 116 in 1969 Aug 24 115 in 2020 119 in 1985 117 in 1985 Aug 25 113 in 2011 116 in 1962 117 in 1962 Aug 26 117 in 2011 115 in 2020 115 in 1981 Aug 27 114 in 2023 120 in 1981 117 in 1981 Aug 28 117 in 2023 118 in 2023 117 in 2009 && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Friday for AZZ530>555-559- 560. CA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for CAZ562-565>567- 569-570. && $$ SHORT TERM...Benedict LONG TERM...Berislavich/Benedict AVIATION...RW FIRE WEATHER...Benedict CLIMATE...18  834 FXUS64 KEWX 220516 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1216 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1204 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Heat Advisory in effect for the northern Hill Country, I-35 Corridor, and Coastal Plains through Sunday. - Brief and isolated showers and storms possible over Central Texas this afternoon. - August heat wave continues with no significant rain or heat relief in sight. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The forecast has long called for a hot weekend and it that won't be changing as upper level ridging remains steady over the southern Rockies and southern Plains. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through the weekend for the northern Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and Coastal Plains. For these areas, high temperatures both Saturday and Sunday are expected to rise into the 102F to 105F range with heat indices up to about 109F. These conditions can become dangerous if adequate steps are not taken to stay cool and hydrated. Overnight temperatures stay in the mid to upper 70s within the advisory areas, providing meager relief. While the atmospheric profile looks relatively dry with a patch of modest precipitable water extending from West Texas into the Central Gulf, the weakly anticyclonic flow around the nearby upper level ridge will help push a zone of slightly higher moisture straddling a baroclinic zone aloft near our region today. The slight rise in moisture results in convective temperatures in the latest HREF to be subtly lower this afternoon compared to Friday, ranging generally between 100-103F. This implies daytime heating alone may be sufficient to spark a few isolated and gusty shower or even a brief thunderstorm this afternoon. Rain chances remain on the low side (15 to 20 percent) and focused over the Hill Country to Austin metro area, but is depicted in some of the hi- res models. Any shower would likely be brief, but the accompanying gustiness and rain could bring temporary respite from the heat. The baroclinic support is lower for Sunday, so chances look lower for this type of isolated shower activity. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The heat wave won't be going away anytime soon. Without any notable amplification of the jet stream to its north, the strong ridge keeping our hot airmass in place doesn't have any travel plans this upcoming week. High temperatures will continue to be near or over 100F each day, with only slight fluctuations day to day. Regardless of whether the scales tip towards additional Heat Advisory extensions/issuances or not, the bottom line is that the summer heat continues. The forecast remains dry as subsidence from the ridge prevents shower formation, though there could be some potential for a few showers to sneak into the region Friday as the tail end of a decaying front brushes the area. Otherwise, the current weather pattern offers slim pickings for rain through the end of August. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR flight conditions prevail through the period. Few patchy low clouds are possible this morning and again Sunday morning but flight impacts at the area terminals are not anticipated. There will be some high clouds arriving later today and could continue to pass through the region at times into Sunday. This afternoon features a slight chance for shower or storm across northern portions of the region. KAUS could possibly see something approach but confidence remains too low to insert any mention in the TAFs at this time. Winds generally remain around 10 kt or less through the period, with the highest speeds just after sunset with the sea breeze. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 105 80 104 79 / 20 10 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 104 79 103 78 / 20 10 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 102 77 103 76 / 10 0 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 102 77 102 76 / 20 10 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 104 78 104 77 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 103 80 103 79 / 20 10 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 101 75 102 74 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 103 77 102 76 / 10 10 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 103 78 103 77 / 20 10 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 102 78 102 77 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 103 77 103 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ171>173-191>194- 205>209-220>225. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...62  889 FXUS65 KFGZ 220519 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1019 PM MST Fri Aug 21 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through the first half of next week, primarily across the higher terrain. Drier and warmer conditions may return by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION...A strong area of high pressure continues to linger over the Four Corners. Although the synoptic pattern would typically bring an active monsoon day, early morning cloud cover brought enough stabilization to keep things fairly quiet today. We are still expecting isolated to scattered showers throughout the afternoon and evening, primarily along the Mogollon Rim and northward. But overall should be a downturn in activity compared to yesterday. For the weekend/early next week, the area of high pressure will wobble around the Southwest, keeping daily chances for showers/storms. Greatest coverage looks to be across the higher terrain each afternoon/evening. Outside of daily precipitation chances, daytime highs will remain above normal. In typical monsoon fashion, some days will be more active than others, but we'll have a better idea on which days those will be as we move through the period. For now, be sure to check the forecast prior to enjoying outdoor activities, and be sure to have a way to receive weather alerts. Middle to late next week...model guidance suggests a few different solutions, but we could see a brief drying/warming trend. There could still be chances for showers/storms across the White Mountains and eastern Rim, but widespread activity doesn't look to be the case as of now. In addition, there may need to be further discussion on heat products for the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION...Saturday 22/06Z through Sunday 23/06Z...Mainly VFR conditions. Isolated -SHRA KINW-KSJN through around 08Z, otherwise mainly dry overnight. Another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms after 18Z Saturday, continuing into early evening. Daytime winds southwest to northwest at 5-15 kts, light and variable overnight. Localized/brief MVFR and gusty/erratic winds up to 40 kts in stronger storms. OUTLOOK...Sunday 23/06Z through Tuesday 25/06Z...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon, highest coverage over the higher terrain. Brief/localized MVFR and wind gusts to 40 kts in stronger storms. Daytime winds southwest to west at 5-15 kts. Light and variable or terrain driven winds overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER...Rest of today through Sunday...Look for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and early evening across northern Arizona with the main focus over and near the White Mountains and along and to the north of the Mogollon Rim. Stronger storms will bring hail, gusty and erratic winds, and localized heavy rainfall. Away from storms, winds look to be southwest to northwest 5-15 mph each day, becoming variable in the evening and overnight. Monday through Wednesday...Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday, becoming more isolated on Tuesday and Wednesday. Stronger storms will bring hail, gusty and erratic winds, and localized heavy rainfall. Winds southwest to west at 5-15 mph each day, with gusty and erratic winds possible near storms. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Konieczny AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...Schank For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  106 FXUS65 KCYS 220522 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1122 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Precipitation chances return by this weekend, with the possibility of widespread rain on Saturday. - Daily shower and storm chances continue Monday through the end of the week with slightly above average temperature expected until Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 131 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A bit of uncertainty in the forecast for this afternoon and evening regarding storm chances. Upper-level ridging over the west continues to shift eastward into Wyoming today. This will produce strong subsidence which will work to counteract storms. However, model soundings and mesoanalysis show quite a bit of instability, especially east of the Laramie Range. Satellite thus far has been unimpressive, showing flat topped cumulus fields mainly around Cheyenne and Laramie. A few isolated instances of vertical growth have been observed, but have quickly fallen apart due to the presence of MLCIN. Mesoanalysis does have CIN eroding away within the next few hours, so it is possible that by late afternoon and evening, storms could develop given the instability and lift from a weak upper-level disturbance. Most CAMs aren't too exited about storms today. The HRRR has been the most bullish, but also the most uncertain, flip flopping back and forth between lots of storms and barely any storms. However, newest runs of the HRRR seem to be more believable, showing convection developing this evening over the high terrain and pushing into the panhandle where it strengthens due to higher instability. If this is the case, a severe thunderstorm or two could be possible. Both strong winds and large hail cannot be ruled out in storms with DCAPE over 1000 J/kg and MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg. Any storms that develop will move out of the area by midnight tonight, however, cannot rule out nocturnal convection developing in the panhandle after this. Increased moisture into the area from precipitation as well as weak southeast flow, could cause low stratus and patchy fog east of the Laramie Range early Saturday morning. The forecast for Saturday looks more certain, with greater chances for precipitation. Another weak shortwave moving through the ridge will provide the needed lift and monsoon moisture for storms to develop. Model soundings show decent instability once again, which could lead to marginally severe storms. Hi-Res guidance shows widely scattered storms developing during the mid-afternoon and continuing through the evening hours. Most hazards will be possible in storms, including heavy rain due to PWATs in the 90th percentile, large hail, and strong winds. Hi-Res guidance does show lingering showers across the area Saturday night, however these should not cause impacts. Similar conditions are expected on Sunday with another round of scattered storms. PWATs and instability are weaker on Sunday, so severe storms are unlikely at this time. Due to less moisture, models are also hinting at lower coverage of storms on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 131 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Monday...Coverage of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms increases somewhat by an increase in monsoonal moisture and lowering 700 mb temperatures providing less convective inhibition, CIN, compared to Sunday. As is this type of pattern, afternoon convection will be over and near the mountains due to differential heating and orographic effects, with the activity spreading across the rest of the forecast area before dissipation by late evening. Warmer temperatures compared to the previous day due to less cloud cover and convective coverage. Tuesday...Similar pattern synoptically to Monday with minor perturbations in the flow aloft aiding in lift of monsoonal moisture to produce widely scattered to scattered afternoon convection over and near our Snowy, Sierra Madre and northern Laramie Ranges, with the activity spreading eastward across the rest of the forecast area in the evening. Some lowering of mid level temperatures suggests daytime maximum temperatures will be a little cooler. Wednesday...The primary change compared to Tuesday, will be a reinforcement of the ridge aloft axis over Wyoming, inducing a return to upslope mechanical lift aiding the areal increase of showers and thunderstorms, especially east of the mountains and along the I-25 corridor and eastward. Slight warming trend with 700 mb temperatures near 13 Celsius yielding high temperatures in the 80s. Thursday-Friday...Monsoonal moisture becomes a bit more scant with decent westerly flow aloft and with warm temperatures aloft producing more convective inhibition, CIN, to limit development. A slight warming trend continues based on mid level, 700 mb temperature trends. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1122 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A relatively calm night is in store with the possibility of lower VIS and CIGs across the Nebraska Panhandle with the additional moisture from Friday's precipitation and wind direction. Then, winds ramp up once again across all terminals by 00Z Sunday with southeasterly to southerly gusts 20 to 25 knots. Another round of showers and thunderstorms look to impact all sites except KRWL starting around 23Z Saturday, therefore PROB30 groups have been added. Look for lower VIS along with gusty and erratic winds in any storm activity if it comes near or over a terminal. Chances persist towards the tail end of this forecast period. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SF LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...RZ  259 FXUS63 KABR 220527 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1227 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly dry conditions will continue through next Wednesday with temperatures around average for this time of year. - There is a 30-60% chance for showers and thunderstorms during the day Sunday into early Sunday evening over central SD, expanding to northeastern SD/west central MN Sunday night while increasing to a 40-70% chance. - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather Sunday night over much of central to northeastern SD. Brief heavy rain, lighting, and strong winds to around 60 mph will be the main concern. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Updated for 06Z Aviation Discussion below. UPDATE Issued at 740 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 The showers with some embedded thunder has cleared the southeast corner of the CWA. Looks like the only remaining mid-level short-wave in northwest flow is heading into northwestern/central MN. While the PVA side of this wave can continue to influence forcing/lift over the far northeast corner of the CWA, there could be a shower or two straifing Roberts/Big Stone/Traverse counties from now through ~05Z. Otherwise, the rest of tonight should be dry with surface high pressure still building down over the region. No changes to the tonight period forecast. UPDATE Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Small waves in our otherwise northwesterly flow at 500mb is helping support clouds and light showers or sprinkles mainly southwest and north of the forecast area this afternoon. The last of any lingering light showers should be to our east by 02Z. Otherwise, mainly dry weather continues through 05Z Sunday. The 500mb ridge set up to our west looks to push overhead Sunday, as a surface trough strengthens over western SD/NE. This will bring our next chance of precipitation, with a 30-60% chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms over mainly central SD Sunday into early Sunday evening before expanding/pushing over northeastern SD and west central MN Sunday night while increasing to 40-70%. As noted in the previous discussion, with high PW values, heavy rain will be possible. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather Sunday night over much of central to northeastern SD. Brief heavy rain, lighting, and strong winds to around 60 mph will be the main concern if storms develop. We'll keep an eye on Monday night into Tuesday as well as the 500mb Canadian low rotates through south central Canada with a stacked surface low pushing a cold front across our area. Additional showers or storms will be possible. Otherwise, we'll be looking at Thursday afternoon and evening for another round of showers or thunderstorms. Upper 70s to mid 80s will remain common through the period, with the highest temperatures Monday over central SD (a few low 90s possible Monday or Tuesday of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the period as a high pressure ridge remains over the area. As the ridge shifts east through Saturday evening, expect increasing high clouds and the potential for showers and thunderstorms in central SD in the 6-12 hours after the current TAF period. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...SRF DISCUSSION...06 AVIATION...SRF  266 FXUS63 KDVN 220527 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1227 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold frontal passage will bring a risk of strong to severe storms through sunset. - Outside of yet another system centered around Wednesday, mainly dry conditions should be seen until late next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 153 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 At 18z the cool front was located roughly from KY51 southwest to KIFA and near KEBS. Ahead of the front was a pre-frontal trof running from roughly KOVS to near KDSM. Satellite has agitated clouds along the front between KY51 and KDEH with showers a few storms developing. There is a layer of low to mid level steep lapse rates between the trof and front that will sweep through during the late afternoon/evening with some showers or storms along the pre-frontal trof. An associated upper level disturbance will help to enhance the overall mesoscale lift and maintain the showers/storms along the cool front. The CAMs are struggling with what will happen late this afternoon/evening due to the overall weak forcing. Based on what has occurred so far from satellite/radar, some low end convection will be seen along the pre-frontal trof. The stronger convection, associated with the upper level disturbance, will be tied to the passage of the cool front. That being said, prime time for strong to severe storms looks to be 3 to 8 PM with the storms quickly decaying in the 8 to 10 PM time frame. The primary risks still look to be damaging winds and hail. However, storm-scale interactions cannot fully rule out the potential of brief spin-up tornadoes. The relatively higher severe risk still looks to be along/east of the Mississippi and the I-80 corridor on north. After 10 PM quiet conditions will then be seen the remainder of the night with slowly falling dew points as the cool front slowly exits the area. Seasonable temperatures will be seen on Tuesday with breezy conditions developing around mid-day. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 153 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Saturday night through Friday Assessment...low (20-30%) confidence on rain around Wednesday Northwest flow aloft will persist through the coming week. The best chance for any rain looks to be tied to around Wednesday during the passage of yet another cool front. However, this system will only have the moisture associated with it. As a result, the model consensus only has 20-30% chances for rain. Prior to and after next Wednesday, there will be additional but weaker upper level disturbances moving through in the flow aloft. While an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out, over 90% of the area will likely remain dry with near seasonable temperatures. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 541 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Eastern Iowa TAF sites are forecast to remain on the east side of high pressure that builds southward to near the Iowa/Nebraska border by 18 UTC Saturday. This will lead to VFR conditions through the period. This will keep winds north to northwesterly around 5 to 10 knots. After 15 UTC Saturday, gusty winds are forecast to develop with speeds of 10 to 12 knots and gusts up to 20 knots through the afternoon. Additionally, diurnally driven cumulus are forecast to develop. Winds are expected to diminish after 22 UTC. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...Cousins  230 FXUS64 KTSA 220526 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1226 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1224 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Hot to very hot conditions will continue for the next week, with the only exceptions being around active thunderstorm activity. - Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected through Monday, bringing areas of locally heavy rain and strong gusty winds, but most areas will see only minimal rainfall. - Areas of localized fire weather concerns will persist. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 An upper level shortwave will pass through the area late tonight into mid morning, bringing another round of elevated showers and storms. These storms may result in locally heavy rainfall, but most areas will only see minimal precipitation. In fact, the storms that will impact the area later are already present in Nebraska. CAMs match the radar presentation reasonably well, but are too dry across central Kansas where additional storms have formed. This may matter because the 00z CAMs confine the majority of the storm activity to central Oklahoma. If storms get going further to the east that would be very relevant for the eventual outcome. Suffice it to say, uncertainty is fairly high for exactly where storms move in Saturday morning. Either way, the dry lower boundary layer will favor gusty winds, with a marginal (5 percent) chance for severe winds near stronger storms. Temperatures will be tricky Saturday considering the timing of the storms. Areas away from convective activity will again be in the upper 90s to near 100 F, but rain cooled areas may see a cooler day in the lower 90s. Will let the day shift decide on any heat products based on how storm activity evolves. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 The upper level ridge will remain nearly stationary to the west of the area for the next few days. Temperatures should be mostly in the mid 90s in the north, but warmer in the south near 100 F. Behind some storm activity Monday morning (see below), model guidance rapidly increases temperatures as downslope southwest flow develops. Monday or Tuesday may be the warmest days this week, with some slight cooling mid week in response to a grazing distant trough in the Midwest. Even so, it'll stay plenty hot, with mid 90s to low 100s to close out the week. The displaced center of high pressure will keep somewhat enhanced mid level flow and periodic shortwaves moving through for the next few days. The current favored timing for the next such shortwave will be later Sunday into Monday morning. Model guidance remains on the weaker side, but there could be a narrow corridor of decent rainfall wherever storms set up. The dry boundary layer will continue to support strong gusty winds as well. The same general pattern will remain in place through next week, but as the ridge gradually flexes into the area shower activity will gradually become more isolated. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Convective evolution is highly uncertain, but convective impacts will be possible at all sites at some point. As of now, the best convective chances look to be from late Saturday morning through the afternoon, but confidence in this timing is low. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 97 74 97 77 / 40 10 10 20 FSM 101 74 99 75 / 30 20 20 20 MLC 101 73 103 79 / 30 20 10 0 BVO 96 69 95 71 / 40 10 20 20 FYV 96 68 94 71 / 50 20 20 40 BYV 94 69 92 70 / 50 20 20 60 MKO 97 71 97 74 /40 10 10 10 MIO 95 70 93 71 / 50 10 20 50 F10 98 72 99 75 / 30 10 10 0 HHW 101 74 102 77 / 20 20 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...05  278 FXUS64 KBMX 220527 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1227 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1226 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026 - Minor HeatRisk will continue through the weekend. Heat indices are forecast to remain below 105 degrees. - Drier air will result in less rain chances through the weekend, although some storms may develop across the north late Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... (Saturday through next Friday) Issued at 1132 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026 In the short term, decreasing dew point depressions and light winds following earlier convection will likely support patchy fog development around sunrise Saturday morning (20-40% probability). As upper-level ridging builds over the weekend, increased subsidence and drier air will temporarily lower precipitation chances. However, latest CAMs indicate a weak shortwave riding the ridge periphery, potentially affecting the northwest counties late afternoon into early evening. Consequently, maintained 20- 30% rain chances after 7 PM Saturday night. High temperatures are expected to persist in the low to mid-90s, though arriving drier air will limit heat indices to generally 100-104 degrees. Looking into next week, high confidence exists in a stagnant upper-level pattern dominated by a strong ridge over the Southwest and southern tier. While the ridge holds, moderate confidence exists in the timing of shortwaves rotating through the northwest flow and a moderating frontal surge, which are expected to increase precipitation chances for the Southeast. Periodic bouts of rain and thunderstorms are forecast to overspread the region starting Tuesday and continuing through Friday as moisture and instability pool along the ridge's periphery. 16 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026 Given decoupling winds and recent heavy rainfall, reduced VIS is expected overnight due to BR. Expect MVFR VIS at all terminals through 22/13z, before conditions generally clear to VFR for the rest of the TAF period. Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage. /44/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air filtering into the area on Saturday will result in a decrease in relative humidity (35 to 45%) for most locations. However, wind speeds are expected to remain light, which should negate any significant fire weather concerns during this period. Moisture gradually begins to return early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 94 70 92 66 / 0 10 0 10 Anniston 92 69 91 66 / 0 10 0 10 Birmingham 93 72 92 70 / 0 20 10 10 Tuscaloosa 98 73 96 72 / 10 20 10 20 Calera 94 72 93 69 / 0 10 10 10 Auburn 91 72 91 71 / 10 10 10 10 Montgomery 96 73 96 71 / 10 10 10 10 Troy 95 71 95 70 / 20 10 10 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...16 AVIATION.../44/  316 FXUS66 KPDT 220529 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1029 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisories remain in effect through 10 PM. - Very low to slight chance (5-20 percent) of high-based showers and thunderstorms today and Saturday. Red Flag Warnings in effect for several fire weather zones. - Widespread breezy to windy westerly winds coupled with low relative humidity Saturday. Red Flag Warnings in effect for numerous fire weather zones. Wind Advisories in effect. && .DISCUSSION... Water vapor imagery shows a large, closed low offshore in the Pacific, just west of the OR/CA border. Meanwhile, an upper- level ridge of high pressure extends from the Four Corners into the Pacific Northwest. The interaction of these two synoptic- scale features will drive the bulk of our weather over the next couple days. Under the ridge, widespread hot conditions are in place with afternoon high temperatures already in the 90s to lower 100s this afternoon. Temperatures are expected to continue climbing in areas bereft of significant mid/high cloud. Clouds draped over the western half of our forecast area will suppress daytime highs relative to yesterday. Heat Advisories remain in effect through 10 PM this evening due to widespread Moderate (level 2 of 4) to Major (level 3 of 4) HeatRisk. This level of heat affects anyone without cooling/hydration. Ensemble NWP guidance is in concensus that the upper low will slowly track north-northeast through the day, remaining just offshore. This places the forecast area under southerly to southwesterly flow aloft. Synoptic-scale forcing coupled with increasing mid-level moisture may facilitate some high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, tonight, and into Saturday morning, but probabilities are quite low (5-15 percent), highest for the Cascades. The low is then expected (95 percent confidence) to track inland across northern Oregon and Washington during the day Saturday, morphing into an open-wave trough as it moves inland. Its attendant cold frontal passage during the day will help drive breezy to windy westerly winds through the Cascade gaps as well as across the Columbia Basin and portions of the Blue Mountains. Wind Advisories were issued for many public forecast zones across north-central Oregon and south-central Washington, and may be expanded should confidence increase in windy conditions extending farther east across the Columbia Basin and Blue Mountain foothills. While confidence was "only" medium-high (50-90%) in reaching rh thresholds across fire weather zones, due to the magnitude of the forecast winds (10-25 mph with gusts of 25-40 mph, locally higher through especially wind-prone areas), have issued Red Flag Warnings for wind and low relative humidity for the majority of our non-mountain fire weather zones for later Saturday morning (OR/WA693) or Saturday afternoon (WA690, WA691, OR691, OR696, OR698, OR700, and OR703). In addition to Red Flag Warnings for wind/rh, the potential for abundant lightning and gusty outflow winds prompted Red Flag Warnings for WA695 (tonight through Saturday morning) and OR/WA692 (late Saturday morning through Saturday evening). Some breezy conditions are forecast to linger Sunday as the trough exits to the east. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through Saturday. Winds will gust in the 25 to 30 kt range at all sites except ALW and PSC. The stronger winds across the region will hopefully prevent major issues with smoke, though there could still be some local smoke from the regional wildfires. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 63 90 50 83 / 10 10 0 0 ALW 70 93 58 84 / 10 0 0 0 PSC 67 96 58 86 / 10 100 0 YKM 71 95 58 86 / 10 30 0 0 HRI 69 92 58 85 / 10 10 0 0 ELN 66 87 54 79 / 10 30 0 0 RDM 55 89 44 84 / 10 10 0 0 LGD 65 95 52 86 / 10 10 10 0 GCD 64 95 53 88 / 10 10 0 0 DLS 67 85 60 84 / 20 10 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for WAZ026-522-523. Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday for WAZ024-521. Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM PDT Saturday for WAZ690- 691. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday for WAZ692. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM PDT Saturday for WAZ693. Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 10 PM PDT Saturday for WAZ026. Red Flag Warning until noon PDT Saturday for WAZ695. OR...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for ORZ041-044-049-050- 502-503-505>507-509>511. Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ041-044- 508-510. Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ691- 696-698-700-703. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ692. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ693. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...77  394 FXUS61 KRLX 220530 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 130 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 06Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update. 728 PM Update... ~00z aviation discussion update. 229 PM Update... Forecast remains on track with previous issuances. 18Z Aviation forecast discussion update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Diurnally driven showers and storms are anticipated to spawn over the next few hours across the eastern half of the forecast area today. 2) Active weather extends into the start of the weekend as a cold front drives through the Central Appalachians by Saturday night. Thunderstorm development preceding the frontal passage may foster damaging wind gusts and hail. 3) High pressure building in for the start of the new work week will yield a stretch of dry weather and below normal temperatures across parts of the Ohio Valley. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Radar trends thus far today have kept the bulk of activity associated with a southern stream disturbance east of the Appalachians. However, additional development in Kentucky at the time of writing within blossoming cumulus signals destabilization that bears a similar environment to parts of the central lowlands. Hi-res modeling fires up a line of diurnally driven storms along the foothills and mountains for this afternoon and fading off after sunset. Leftover moisture will once again promote locally dense fog and low level stratus late tonight into Saturday morning. KEY MESSAGE 2... Amplification of an upper level trough, coupled with shortwave energy, will drive a cold front through the Ohio Valley for the start of the weekend. Daytime heating will lead to typical summertime destabilization ahead of the front, prompting blossoming cumulus fields and scattered shower and storm development. Storm initiation preceding FROPA may begin as early as 2 PM across the Ohio River Valley and also along the higher terrain with assistance from upslope lift. Radar will then remain active through the course of the afternoon and evening with the eastward push of the front, currently aiming for an arrival time into the forecast area by late Saturday night. One last line of showers and storms aligned along the boundary presses through overnight into Sunday morning, lingering longest along the higher terrain for the end of the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 3... While some lingering precipitation along the northeast WV mountains may be ongoing for the start of the day Sunday, a multi-day dry weather pattern is progged to arrive for the end of the weekend/start of next week under the guise of building high pressure. This stretch of dry weather will aid in soil recovery in the wake of what has been a very wet month across the bulk of the forecast area. Temperatures are also anticipated to fall below climatological norms in the wake of the frontal passage, with daytime highs reaching the 60s along the mountains and 70s to low 80s across the lowlands. Overnight lows will also cool down into the 40s and 50s during this time. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... More dense valley fog is expected this morning except for HTS/BKW who should have enough surface flow to deter fog formation. HTS obs are not updating therefore AMD NOT SKED. Outside the valley fog VFR conditions will prevail after 13Z except for tonight when lower CIGs takeover due to post frontal stratus. Some shower activity is anticipated this afternoon along with possible thunderstorms, however no restrictions are expected unless a site is directly hit. Winds will be out of the southwest and light except may increase some for the afternoon and change out of the west as frontal passage takes place tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions from fog and low stratus may vary this morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 08/22/26 UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L M M L L L H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M L H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L M M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L M M H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR conditions possible in low stratus and fog Sunday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...JZ  524 FXUS63 KTOP 220531 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1231 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Overnight storms may produce isolated pockets of gusty winds up to 60 mph and small hail. - Weather pattern remains largely unchanged this weekend through most of next week with occasional chances for showers and storms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 928 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Latest radar shows convection this evening has developed further west over the NEB panhandle than earlier runs of the HRRR depicted. As a result the 01Z HRRR has trended to keeping more robust convection west of the area. This is also supported by the 01Z RAP which shows the 850MB theta-e ridge and low level jet setting up across western KS. There is still a signal for perhaps some elevated showers and storms northeast of an 850MB boundary across central KS. So no big changes to the forecast are planned. Think the broad brushed 30 percent chance POPs are reasonable. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Currently observing elevated showers and storms across NE this afternoon, associated with a mid level perturbation trailing southeast across the central plains. Main question is if these storms will dissipate or maintain themselves as they enter northern Kansas after 2 PM. Upper forcing weakens by late afternoon before a stronger wave arrives late tonight. In the meantime, atmosphere in our northern counties continues to destabilize today as MUCAPE reaches 3000 J/KG in far northeast Kansas after 3 PM. Bulk shear increases by early evening as well to near 50 kts. If storms maintain themselves or redevelop, the atmosphere is supportive of severe wind gusts and large hail. It's important to note that several cams, including the HRRR, have weakened storms before they enter our area so there exists higher than average uncertainty in storm evolution this afternoon. Better chances for showers and storms comes late tonight as a stronger upper trough develops another storm complex over Nebraska. Track of these storms has been most consistent impacting north central Kansas so have placed higher pops there through Saturday morning. Severe probabilities are not as high with overnight convection, however cannot rule out isolated wind gusts to 60 mph and small hail. Residual showers and cloud cover should clear by late morning Saturday as a cooler sfc high slides southward during the afternoon. Highs are a tad lower in the mid to upper 80s, and may fall further into the lower 80s Sunday afternoon, dependent on lingering showers and cloud cover. Ensemble guidance maintains a strong consensus for the upper ridge to stay suppressed over the Southwest, leaving the Central Plains within an active shortwave pattern Sunday through next week. Maintained slight chance pops Sunday afternoon as a stronger vort max approaches the region, increasing pops overnight as the enhanced LLJ aids in a cluster of storms dropping southeast out of NE. Additional upper disturbances within the northwest flow may bring renewed shower and storm chances Tuesday evening and Thursday. Temperatures through next week are near normal for this time of year in the upper 80s to low 90s for highs. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 For the 06Z TAFs, maintained the PROB30 group with just a minor tweak to timing based on the latest model guidance. Even still, there remains uncertainty on where storms will occur this morning. Outside of storm chances early this period, VFR will prevail with light easterly winds through the day. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Wolters DISCUSSION...Prieto AVIATION...Teefey  422 FXUS66 KPQR 220530 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 1030 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Updated aviation discussion. && .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure brings chances for showers tonight and into Saturday across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington, with a 15-20% chance for thunderstorms over the Cascades and 5-10% chance elsewhere. Southerly winds tonight will become more west/southwest on Saturday and return to a west/northwest pattern Sunday. Seasonable weather returns Sunday through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION...Tonight through Thursday...An upper level trough over the northeast Pacific will continue to move eastward towards the PacNW through the overnight hours. This will support upper level cloud cover, a decrease in temps and a low chance for precipitation through Saturday. Hi-res models seem to be struggling with the development and progression of precipitation across the area as the low shifts over the area. The most up to date CAMs continue to show the potential for light precipitation starting this evening and continuing into the overnight hours. As winds shift more southwesterly, PWAT values are expected to increase to between 1.0-1.30 inches across NW OR and SW WA. The biggest question will be CAPE over the region. CAMs and high resolution models continue to show surface based CAPE (SBCAPE) values 400-800 j/kg is possible over the Cascades but a strong capping inversion of 75-175 J/kg of CIN could stifle any development. Most unstable CAPE (MUCAPE) values are a bit higher in the 700-1100 J/kg range over the Cascades which supports elevated instability in the mid levels of the atmosphere, this lends credence to the Cascades maintaining the highest probability of thunderstorms through the overnight hours. It should also be noted that CIN values over the Cascades are around 100-200 J/kg and that could be enough to stifle any development for the Cascades as well. Therefore, will continue to maintain the slight chance PoPs and thunder (both 10-25%) over the area with the Cascades remaining most likely for any precipitation initially then shifting north of the OR/WA border as a weak cold front moves onshore late tonight into Saturday morning. Any showers or storms will be isolated with most locations likely remaining dry. The upper level trough will continue to progress northeast through the weekend. The weak cold front moving through the area early Saturday will support daytime highs in the upper 70s to low 80s for inland valleys as well as highs in the 60s along the coast and 70s for the Cascades. Southerly winds which developed today will become more west/southwest tonight and into Saturday. Winds through west- east aligned mountain gaps could be gusty, especially through the western Columbia River Gorge. Gusts around 30 mph are expected with a 30-50% chance for isolated gusts approaching 40 mph Saturday afternoon. Zonal flow aloft develops Sunday as the upper level trough continues to trek northeast away from the region. Seasonable highs in the upper 70s to low 80s are expected across the interior lowlands. Looking ahead into early next week, ensemble clusters favor ridging over the central CONUS and the PacNW. Model spread for high temperatures on Monday increases with the 10th-90th percentiles ranging from the upper 70s to low 90s for the interior lowlands. Confidence increases Tuesday and Wednesday with highs likely in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Clusters indicate another trough influencing the region by the middle of the week but exact timing and upper level pattern are uncertain but onshore flow and more seasonable temperatures would be favored. -42/19 && .AVIATION...Through 06z Sunday...An upper-level low tracking to the north offshore will bring periods of vis/cigrestrictions to area terminals throughout the period. Along the coast, widespread low stratus coverage will bring persistent IFR/low-end MVFR cigs at 500-1500 ft. Highest confidence in IFR cigs to the south at KONP (70-80% chance) while MVFR conditions are more likely at KAST. Periods of MVFR vis are likely overnight at coastal terminals. Cigs will tend to lift to 1.5-2.5 kft after 15-18z Sat while south-southwesterly winds increase to 12-16 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt through the afternoon. Cigs look to trend downward again late in the period as winds ease Saturday evening. VFR conditions are favored to continue ahead of the inland penetration of low stratus for I-5 terminals. Chances for MVFR cigs are 40-60%, with the highest confidence in the southern Willamette Valley (KEUG) as early as 09z Sat, and less so in the central Willamette Valley and Portland area. If coverage of low clouds is high enough, restricted cigs are most likely from 13-17z Sat before mixing out and returning to VFR conditions. South to southwest winds will build to 6-12 kt by Saturday afternoon. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions favored through at least 12z Sat. Low cloud coverage will increase after 08z Sat, with the chances for MVFR cigs reaching 50-60% from 13-18z Sat. As low clouds mix out, VFR conditions are again highly favored after 18z Sat. South to southwest winds of 3-5 kt overnight will build to 8-10 kt by Saturday afternoon. -36 && .MARINE...South to southwest winds continue today as a low pressure system moves over the northeast Pacific. A cold front moves through Saturday, bringing a 50-80% chance for maximum wind gusts to exceed 21 kt for the inner waters, including the Columbia River Bar. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the inner waters from 5 AM to 5 PM Saturday and for the Columbia River Bar from 11 AM to 5 PM Saturday. For the outer waters, chances are 20-50% with the highest values of that range between 10 and 30 NM. High pressure and northerly winds return by Sunday, with a 40-70% chance for northerly wind gusts to exceed 21 kts in the evening and continuing into Monday. Seas of 4-6 ft persist through the period. ~12 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 5 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ251>253. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  337 FXUS66 KSGX 220529 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 1029 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Monsoonal moisture will decrease into the weekend with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for the mountains and high desert for this afternoon. Above average high and low temperatures will continue through next week. Widespread moderate to locally major HeatRisk for the coast, valleys, and mountains except near the beaches and for the higher elevations in the mountains, with major to extreme HeatRisk for the lower deserts. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... Outside of a few passing high clouds, most of the region is experiencing sunshine this afternoon. Cumulus clouds over San Gorgonio mountain have grown into showers and a thunderstorm. PWAT values in this mornings sounding have actually increased a bit from yesterday and thus there is still an outside (10%) chance for shower development where cumulus have already developed over the Peninsular Range later this afternoon. As of 1 PM, about 50% of temperature observations read 100F or above through the Inland Empire with readings approaching 100F through the interior and foothill valleys of San Diego County. Temperatures near the coast remain closer to average with more comfortable mid 70s across the San Diego County Coast and low 80s across the Orange County coast. This morning's marine layer was slow to develop and quite shallow - around 1000 feet deep with patchy cloud cover and locally lower visibilities in the valleys surrounding the I-15 corridor. This pattern should continue in the coming days as the ridge continues to squash the boundary layer. Long range models are in solid agreement about keeping the upper level ridge strong and centered over the Desert Southwest for at least the next week, despite the jet stream flowing north of it across the Northwest. As a result, model guidance is foresting temperatures consistently 5 to 10 degrees above average across Southern California through the forecast period with little day-to- day change. Given we are in an already hot time of year, impacts from prolonged above normal heat will be more widespread. Most inland areas will experience moderate HeatRisk through next week with some areas of Major HeatRisk. The lower deserts will experience persistent Major HeatRisk through next week with temperatures forecast 110-115F everyday of the forecast period and low temperatures struggling to fall below 90F in some places. Despite the favorable positioning of the ridge, thunderstorm chances are limited this weekend and increasingly less impressive next week with less moisture in store. Chances are subject to change however, especially next week, as the mid-level flow remains generally southerly with the upper level high pressure spinning to the east. The Extreme Heat Warning continues for the lower deserts through next Friday and a Heat Advisory is now in place for the inland valleys and mountains (below 6000 feet in San Bernardino County) from Saturday morning through Monday evening. Take breaks in the shade, hydrate and seek A/C when possible! && .AVIATION... 220530Z...Coast...Patchy clouds based around 1000 ft MSL have formed along parts of the coastal waters. Clouds will remain somewhat patchy and intermittent overnight, but will start to move into coastal areas after 08Z, likely lowering slightly to 700-1000 ft MSL. There is a 60-70% chance for cigs at KSAN/KCRQ after 08Z. Low clouds scatter out 15-16Z Sat morning. Low clouds expected to be more patchy and isolated when they form Sat evening, with a 20-30% chance for cigs in coastalSan Diego Co after 07Z Sun. Otherwise...FEW to SCT clouds above 20 kft MSL through the TAF period. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 8 PM PDT Monday for Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains- San Diego County Valleys-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for Coachella Valley- San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...SS AVIATION/MARINE...CSP  650 FXUS61 KILN 220533 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop today ahead of a cold front moving through the region. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Mid level energy moving through the base of an upper level trough over the Great Lakes region will help push a cold front east across our area today. Some spotty shower activity will be possible through mid morning, but more widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front as we destabilize late this morning and into this afternoon. The models have trended a bit faster with the front, so the better chances of pcpn this afternoon looks to be across our eastern areas. Deep layer shear will not be all that impressive initially, but it will tick up a bit into the 20-30 knot range through mid to late afternoon. This could lead to a few strong to severe storms -- with the best chance for this across mainly our eastern areas where the instability and deep layer shear will be somewhat better. Damaging winds would be the main threat along with possibly some hail as some cooler air moves in aloft. PWs will mainly be in the 1.25 to 1.5 inch range so it will be tough to rule out some locally heavy downpours. The storms should be fairly progressive though and this should help limit any additional flooding concerns. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An upper level disturbance will move through the region today as an associated cold front moves east through the Ohio Valley. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front late this morning into mid afternoon. Pcpn will then taper off from the west through mid to late afternoon as drier air moves in behind the front. Southwest to west winds to around 10 knots or so will become more northwesterly later this afternoon behind the front. Some wind gusts to around 20 knots will also be possible for a few hours later this afternoon on the backside of the front. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGL AVIATION...JGL  639 FXUS63 KFSD 220533 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1233 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low chances (less than 20%) for showers and storms through sunrise south of the Missouri River. Severe weather risk is not expected. - Slightly cooler weather for the weekend. Saturday should remain dry with rain chances (40-70%) returning to portions of the area by Sunday morning. Rainfall amounts could exceed a tenth of an inch. - Additional chances for rain, and potentially strong to severe thunderstorms (5-15%), are possible through next week. Details are uncertain, so continue to check the latest forecast for the most up to date information. && .UPDATE... Issued at 831 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 No major changes to the forecast for tonight and tomorrow. A weak boundary heading towards I-90 has set off a few showers and storms as it moves southward, mainly over southwest Minnesota and far eastern South Dakota. Should see this continue weakening with southeastward extent as we lose daytime heating. Meager instability is in place, so just expecting weak thunderstorms with brief downpours and some lightning over roughly the next hour. Higher instability values (2,000+ J/kg of MUCAPE) are located near and south of the Missouri River, but this will slowly sag southward through tonight, though some guidance keeps around 1,000- 1,500 J/kg in place over Gregory County through the early morning hours. With the better lift to the south of the area, thunderstorms are unlikely. If a storm were clip our area, severe weather is unlikely as skinny CAPE profiles would really hinder the development of any large hailstones and the elevated nature of any storm would preclude a damaging wind threat. Any storms will be well south of the area by sunrise Saturday, leading to a warm and pleasant late summer day! && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Quiet conditions persist this afternoon as temperatures have warmed to the 70s and 80s across the area. Quiet conditions are expected to continue for the rest of the day as the cold front has fully pushed through the area. This will keep storm chances south and west of the forecast area. Can't rule out the low possibility (less than 20%) of a shower or weak storm passing along and south of the Missouri River this afternoon, evening, and potentially into the overnight hours. Should this occur, the chance for a severe storm is low. Surface ridging will begin to slide into the forecast area tonight, resulting in light and variable winds with lows falling to the upper 50s to low 60s. Patchy fog is again on the table but with drier air in place, think that any fog that does develop will once again be tied to a few river valley's. Saturday begins the weekend on the quiet side as high pressure pushes through the Northern Plains. High temperatures will be a bit cooler in the upper 70s to low to mid 80s, with a continuation of light northerly winds. This will make for a wonderful Saturday, perfect for outdoor activities! Rain chances will increase late Saturday night through Sunday as a weak shortwave trough rounds the top of a building upper level ridge. This will result in increasing chances for rain across the area for the day on Sunday. Cloud cover with the associated chances for rain will keep high temperatures a bit cooler in the upper 70s to low 80s. While some showers are possible during the morning timeframe, the highest chances for rain will come Sunday evening and night as the main shortwave pushes through the area. The ensembles show a broad 40-70% chance for rainfall totals to exceed a tenth of an inch. Soundings show some elevated instability in place so thunderstorms are possible, though severe storms are not expected at this time due to weak shear profiles. With non-severe storms on the table, rainfall amounts could be locally higher depending on how storms track. An active pattern continues aloft for next week. Medium range guidance shows shortwave troughs continuing to push through the Northern Plains within the northwest flow regime. This will lead to chances for rain almost every day next week. However, the ensembles show a large variance in rainfall probabilities due to the differences in these upper level features. Latest machine learning (ML) guidance does show low probabilities (5-15%) for severe weather throughout the week. Details for severe weather remains uncertain so continue to check the forecast for the most up to date information. Aside from rain and storm chances, high temperatures look to remain in the upper 70s and 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Patchy light fog is possible tonight mainly in river valleys and other low lying areas, though widespread issues are not expected. The only TAF site that appears to at least have a chance of light fog is KHON, but even then we're looking at a less than 15% chance of development there. Quiet conditions are expected through the period outside of a rogue thunderstorm south of the Missouri River through sunrise today. Light and variable winds are expected through daybreak. Then winds will be mainly out of the north-northeast around 5-10 kts through the day today, but will start turning more easterly into the later evening hours. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Samet DISCUSSION...Meyers AVIATION...Samet  652 FXUS63 KLMK 220533 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * A cold front will bring a chance for showers and storms Saturday afternoon. A few storms may become strong east of I-65, with the main severe hazards being gusty winds and small hail. * Milder, dry conditions are expected for Sunday through Tuesday. * Warming temperatures and low rain chances return by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 304 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 This Afternoon through Tonight... A scattered cu field has developed across the area this afternoon as locations reach convective temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s. Where there is slightly greater instability and convergence around Lake Cumberland, isolated to widely scattered showers and storms have developed, and should continue over the next few hours before diminishing by around sunset. Tonight, mostly clear skies and light winds should allow for efficient cooling after sunset, with temperatures falling into the upper 60s and low 70s for the overnight hours. Light winds in the boundary layer should allow for patchy fog to develop after midnight, with dense fog possible in sheltered valleys. Fog coverage may be limited early Saturday morning if residual clouds from upstream convection make it into southern IN and north central KY. Otherwise, dry conditions and low temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to the low 70s are expected. Saturday and Saturday Night... Within broad upper level troughing, a shortwave will eject from the Canadian Prairies into the upper Ohio Valley tonight into Saturday, bringing an associated sfc cold front across the area during the daytime hours. Temperatures should again warm into the low-to-mid 80s by midday, with a narrow corridor of low 70s dewpoints and 2500- 3000 J/kg SBCAPE expected just ahead of cold FROPA. The best lift/forcing associated with the upper shortwave is expected to remain across Ohio and points to the east tomorrow, and it appears that most of the forcing which would support convective development across our area would come from the front itself. Accordingly, how far east the front makes it before convective temperatures are reached Saturday afternoon will determine where the greatest potential for showers and storms will be. 12Z HREF probabilities of >40 dBZ reflectivities are highest along and east of I-65, with lower chances of showers and storms expected in the western CWA. Still, with relatively modest forcing, would expect storm coverage to be isolated to scattered even east of I-65, with many areas remaining dry. Where storms develop, mean deep-layer shear values of 20-25 kt would support modest storm organization, with a few longer-lasting and taller storms possible. Shear profiles are fairly unidirectional, so damaging straight-line winds would be the main severe threat in any stronger storms. A couple instances of near-severe hail will also be possible in the tallest storm cores, though mid-level lapse rates won't be particularly steep. The storm window should be fairly narrow tomorrow afternoon between around 2 PM and 1-2 hours after cold FROPA, with the storm threat completely ending by around sunset. Saturday night, drier air will begin to work into the region behind the cold front along with modest cool air advection. The pressure gradient associated with the front won't be particularly strong, so NW winds behind the front should ease outside of the elevated/well- mixed areas. Temperatures should be cooler Sunday morning, with lows falling into the low-to-mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 304 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A drier and marginally cooler air mass will spill into the Ohio Valley from the northwest behind the cold front on Sunday as mid- and upper-level troughing sets up east of the Mississippi. This air mass, supported by 1018 mb sfc high pressure, should remain in place over the region into Monday, with sub-1" PWATs indicating moisture levels around the 10th percentile of model climatology. It should be rather comfortable for late August during this time period, with highs in the upper 70s and low-to-mid 80s and lows in the upper 50s and low 60s. The primary trough axis over the eastern CONUS will begin to eject to the east Monday night into Tuesday as upper ridging over the western CONUS spreads toward the lower Miss. Valley. This should allow a sfc warm front to creep to the NE next Tuesday, with greater moisture located in the vicinity of the front. If the front remains SW of the area, as is currently the most likely solution, dry weather should continue into the middle of next week. However, if the ridge/warm front can make it closer to the area, low-end chances for showers and storms may return by next Wednesday. Next Wednesday into Thursday, another upper shortwave is expected to descend on the NE side of the ridge across the upper Midwest. This may bring a weak front toward the area, prompting a return of shower/storm chances, though forecast confidence in storms is low at this time. Temperatures should gradually increase by the second half of next week, returning to near climatological normals by next Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected to continue through the remainder of the overnight. RGA and HNB may see a brief dip in VIS as patchy fog is possible. Any fog will burn off within an hour or two of sunrise. Winds will pick up out of the southwest ahead of a cold front moving in from the north. As this front passes through in the afternoon, winds will gust up to 22kts and shift to the northwest. PROB30s are currently in the TAFs from about 15-23Z for showers and storms along the front. With sunset, winds will relax and precip will dissipate. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CSG LONG TERM...CSG AVIATION...SRW  681 FXUS61 KAKQ 220534 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 134 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated full discussion. No significant forecast changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and storms late this evening into overnight will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, potentially leading to localized flash flooding. Additional showers and storms are expected Saturday, mainly near the bay and on the eastern shore. 2) Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered diurnally driven convection returns by the middle to latter part of the week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 230 PM EDT Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and storms late this evening into overnight will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, potentially leading to localized flash flooding. Additional showers and storms are expected Saturday, mainly near the bay and on the eastern shore. The cold front that crossed the area last night is now stationary and has settled just to our south. A broad upper trough is over the Great Lakes and extends south over the Appalachians. A lead shortwave on the SE side of the trough is crossing the Piedmont, and is responsible for the showers and isolated storms that are tracking across western portions of the FA despite only a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE. Scattered strong to severe storms have developed near the front from south central to southeast NC. The front is progged to move back north tonight as a warm front and bisect the area by early Sat AM. As a result, expect numerous showers and a few tstms to develop/move across southern VA and NE NC during the evening, before gradually spreading N and NE overnight. The highest precip chances shift to areas near the Bay and the Eastern Shore by sunrise on Saturday. Given the moisture rich airmass in place (PWs of 1.7- 2.1"), locally heavy rain is likely this evening-tonight, and a few areas could see 2-3" in a short time (mainly south of I-64). A Flood Watch was considered, but feel that the highest totals will be localized enough (and storms will be moving fast enough) for flash flooding to be isolated in nature. The 12z/21 HREF has 10% probs for 3" in 3 hours for mainly S/SE portions of the area tonight. A few strong to severe storms can't be ruled out near/south of the VA-NC border between now-9 PM, but confidence is low. The front will continue to linger over east and northeast portions of the FA Saturday as the broad upper trough axis moves over the area. In addition, a weak surface low may develop along it in the vicinity of the Chesapeake Bay/Lower Eastern Shore. Additional showers and a few tstms are likely, especially from the Peninsulas to Eastern Shore. Convection will likely initiate earlier than usual and may even be ongoing during the morning. While the saturated profile and weak sfc heating (highs only in the low-mid 80s) should mitigate the severe wx potential, localized heavy rain/flooding is possible (especially near the bay and on the Eastern Shore). Similar to tonight, a few spots could see 2-3" of rain in a short time. WPC has maintained a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for eastern portions of the area on Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered diurnally driven convection returns by the middle to latter part of the week. The weak front will finally move offshore, as the main upper level trough axis shifts offshore and surface high pressure builds into the SE CONUS. The surface high will usher in a drier airmass with seasonable temperatures in the 80s and dew points in the 60s Sunday into early next week. The high is progged to break down by Wed/Thu, with unsettled conditions and isolated-scattered aftn/evening convection returning mid to late week. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 135 AM EDT Saturday... A frontal boundary remains south of the area to start off the forecast period. Most sites actually remain VFR as of 06z but observations and model guidance indicate lower CIGs will gradually creep into most of the terminals over the next few hours. CIGs look to bottom out in the 500-2000 feet range (lowest at RIC) as the front gradually lifts back N. Additionally, the coverage of showers/storms is expected to increase over the next few hours and especially after 12z. While strong-severe storms are not expected today, IFR VSBYs are possible in any heavier showers. Remaining unsettled heading into the later half of the day with continued showers/storms expected (best chance at ORF and ECG). CIGs will remain MVFR through most of the morning and should gradually clear by this afternoon and especially this evening. Outlook: Drying out tonight with VFR conditions returning Sunday morning through Monday. Some patchy fog could occur inland around or after 06z Sunday. && .MARINE... As of 230 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Generally benign marine conditions expected through the weekend, outside of afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Afternoon weather analysis shows NNE wind prevailing around 10kt with gusts upwards of 15kt across the waters. Seas remain low at this time with wave heights around 1-2 ft across the bay and 2-3ft across our nearshore zones and 3-4ft further offshore. Winds are forecasted to shift later this afternoon and evening as a warm front lifts towards the area. Winds are expected to remain around 10kt with the shift and will be out of the E. In addition, the front will bring showers and thunderstorms that could pose the risk of wind gusts greater than 34kt and lightning. In terms of wave heights not expecting much change in them. By Saturday, southerly flow will return, then becoming SW by Saturday evening. Confidence continues to increase that a cold front will cross the waters late Sunday night allowing for northerly winds to return to our waters, These winds are forecasted to last through Monday. Low risk for rip currents is expected through the weekend and into Monday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ERI AVIATION...AJB/SW MARINE...HET  728 FXUS61 KPHI 220535 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 135 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Aviation section for the 06Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A period of unsettled conditions for Saturday and Saturday night with the possibility for some flooding. Unsettled weather continues through early Sunday. 2. Fair weather is expected to return Monday and should last into the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A period of unsettled conditions for Saturday and Saturday night with the possibility for some flooding. Unsettled weather continues through early Sunday. The upper H5 trough will remain across the East Coast Saturday and Sunday before lifting away and weakening. There are still a few short waves which will move NE across the Middle Atlantic. There are two favored period for the rains, one is Sat. morning and the second Sat evening and early overnight. These waves will bring increased chances for showers and a few tstms thru the period. Higher chances for rains are across Delmarva and south NJ with categorical/likely pops and chance/slight chance pops will be across the N/w areas Saturday. Pops for all areas are in the 50% to 60% range for Saturday evening and then they decrease overnight. Patchy fog will develop overnight. One notable change from yesterday is that the systems appear to be showing the higher QPF totals 'out to sea' . The higher totals are now in the 1.0 to 1.5 inch range and will be across the NJ shore areas. Delmarva may also have some totals around an inch thru that period. A few of the CAMs show that a few isolated spots may have close to 2.0 inch totals. We'll continue to monitor these trends. KEY MESSAGE 2...Fair weather is expected to return Monday and should last into the middle of next week. More zonal flow with some subtle ridging moves in for the first half of the week. At the surface, high pressure will mainly be in control, resulting in dry and tranquil weather through Wednesday. Temperatures should be seasonable through this stretch. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Early this morning...Generally VFR, though MVFR and possibly IFR VSBYs in BR at KRDG. CIGs may lower close to MVFR prior to 12Z. LGT/VRB winds. Low confidence. Today...MVFR CIGs in the morning, lifting to VFR at all but KMIV/KACY. VSBY restrictions in RA/BR at KMIV/KACY from morning through midday or so. E-SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence. Tonight...CIGs lower to IFR with MVFR VSBYs. Scattered SHRA with potential TSRA late. E-SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Low confidence. Outlook... Sunday...MVFR or lower in SHRA/TSRA. Improving conds in the afternoon. Sunday night through Wednesday...VFR. NSW. && .MARINE... Conditions will remain below SCA levels tonight and Saturday. Winds will be onshore 5 to 10 knots much of the time and seas on the ocean will average 2 to 3 ft. Fair weather tonight and then showers and a few tstms are expected Saturday. There are both greater chances for rains and thunder across the southern NJ waters and DE/DE Bay waters too. Outlook... Saturday night through Tuesday...No marine headlines expected. Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected on the waters Saturday night then only a chance for showers Sunday. Rip Currents... For Saturday...Onshore winds around 10 MPH and multiple swell groups (one of which has a 12 to 14 second period) will result in a MODERATE risk for rip currents at the Jersey Shore. Breaking waves will also be around 2 to 3 feet. For the Delaware Beaches, winds should be lower with lower breaking waves, resulting in a LOW risk for rip currents. For Sunday...Winds shift southwesterly around 5 to 15 mph with lessening influence from the longer period swells. Breaking waves will be closer to 1 to 2 feet. This will result in a LOW risk for rip currents at the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...OHara/Staarmann AVIATION...MPS/OHara/Staarmann MARINE...OHara/Staarmann  664 FXUS63 KMQT 220534 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 134 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms move eastward with a cold front over central and eastern Upper Michigan through this evening. - Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across mainly central Upper Michigan tomorrow with minimal rainfall totals. - Seasonable temperatures are expected through next week with the exception of slightly below normal temperatures Sunday and Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 319 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Afternoon RAP analysis indicates the weak sfc low has made it over central Lake Superior, opening up into a trough which extends northward into northern Ontario. Sfc obs place the cold front just past the far western UP with temps in the upper 60s to mid 70s ahead of it. Tds in the low to mid 60s support SBCAPE in the 500-1500 J/kg range, but lapse rates are unimpressive. Bulk shear is also below 25 kts, so strong to severe storms are not expected. Latest radar mosaic has showers along this boundary with Day Cloud Phase RGB satellite imagery showing glaciation and GLM/ground networks indicating lightning activity is just starting. These are expected to progress eastward through this evening before diurnal instability decreases and lingering convection falls apart. PWATs of ~1.3 inches indicate some isolated higher amounts up to 0.5 to 1 inch are possible (30-50% chance, highest central UP), but most likely accumulations will be less than 0.25 inches. In the wake of this front, isolated showers and a few rumbles of thunder are possible (15-30% chance) with a shortwave and limited elevated instability tonight. Lows settle into the upper 40s to low 60s, coldest interior west. Additional scattered showers and weak storms are possible on Saturday as another cold front and shortwave drop southeast overhead. That said, CAMs are even less impressed with this round. Outside the south-central where some spots could reach up to 0.25 inches, accumulations remain below 0.1 inches. Highs will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Temps continue to decrease this weekend, bottoming out Sunday as a mid level trough deepens over the Great Lakes. CAA lowers 850 mb temps to between 3-6C, yielding highs in the 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s to mid 50s. Some interior spots likely will dip back into the upper 30s Sunday night. Northerly winds are expected to gust up to 20 mph on Saturday and between 20-30 mph on Sunday, highest east...particularly near Lake Superior. High pressure moving in from the west keeps weather dry through Monday, likely through most of Tuesday as well before the next mid level trough moves through the region. This brings back shower and storm chances for Tuesday night and Wednesday, then dry weather is favored the rest of the work week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with the exception of a period of fog possible early this morning at SAW. Mentioned fog with 4sm vsby but could not rule out a few hours of vsby less 1sm (40% chance). Another front will push through the area today with increasing northwest winds behind it, bringing gusts to 20-25kt at SAW and CMX in the afternoon through the evening. A few isolated showers or a thunderstorm are expected over the central UP today but the probability of a terminal being impacted is too low to include in the TAFs (less than 20%). && .MARINE... Issued at 348 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Lake Superior - Northwest winds behind a cold front increase on Saturday to 20-30 kts over the east half of the lake by late afternoon, strongest near the south-central shores. Gusts approach 20 kts over the west. As winds become more northerly Saturday night behind a second cold front, central lake superior winds increase to 15-25 kts; the stronger winds to 30 kts over the east persist. This holds into Sunday morning before winds gradually simmer down from west to east into Sunday night. This builds significant waves of 3-7 ft over the southeastern waters this weekend. Probabilities for gales to 35 kts are only between 15-25%, highest south of Stannard Rock and along the Marquette/Alger County shores. Winds otherwise remain below 20 kts through Tuesday before the next system brings back winds up to 20-25 kts Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Northern Bay of Green Bay and northern Lake Michigan - Southerly winds of 15-25 kts ahead of the cold front this afternoon drop off into this evening, becoming northwest for Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening, but severe storms are not expected. Winds increase to 20-30 kts this weekend as a colder airmass descends over the Great Lakes. Winds fall back below 20 kts Sunday night, remaining below 20 kts through much of next week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for MIZ005-006. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...77 AVIATION...NL MARINE...77  672 FXUS64 KLZK 220534 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1234 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 228 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 -A slight cooling of high temperatures from extreme values are expected statewide over the next several days. -POP chances will be present over the next few days for portions of Arkansas, but any rain or storms that materialize will be isolated and not amount to much total rainfall. -Heat safety must still be practiced as temperatures remain across most of the state above average for this time of the year. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Currently, as of 2 AM CDT, a stationary boundary remains draped along the I-40 corridor across central Arkansas. This boundary is expected to gradually track southward as a weak cold front into southern Arkansas today. In response, high temperatures across much of the state will experience a very limited form of relief. Instead of widespread 100F to 105F or greater temperatures across a large part of the state, many locations across Arkansas may only reach the upper 90s, possibly ending several streaks statewide of multiple 100 degree or higher days on Friday. This trend is expected to continue over the next several days as high temperatures will still peak well above normal for this time of the year across most of the state, but may struggle to reach 100 degrees in many locations. The trend is the result of northwesterly flow aloft over Arkansas as the upper lvl ridge is expected to remain cemented over the Four Corners region of the CONUS. In response, a series of frontal boundaries are expected to move through the state which will introduce limited increases in chances for POPs, increased cloud cover, and a slight reduction in temperatures overall. A continued pattern of hot and dry conditions are expected to continue overall across the state, but oppressive temperatures, in the the form of extreme high air temperatures are not expected to be near the values experience over the last several days. Unfortunately, heat index values will remain between 105 and 109 degrees across most of central and southern Arkansas prompting the continuation of the Heat Advisory for today. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Expect VFR flight category for the majority of the forecast period between early Saturday morning and early Sunday morning across all sites. However, beginning early Saturday afternoon -TSRA will begin to impact most sites for the remainder of the forecast period. The threat of -TSRA has been captured by TEMPO groups at each terminal. Expect if a site is impacted directly by -TSRA, then VSBY may drop to as low as MVFR or briefly IFR flight category. Surface wind gusts may reach in excess of 35 knots in the strongest of storms. Timing will likely be better captured at the 12Z issuance of the TAF forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 99 71 95 70 / 60 20 10 50 Camden AR 99 71 98 73 / 10 30 10 40 Harrison AR 93 68 90 69 / 40 20 10 60 Hot Springs AR 99 72 97 73 / 30 20 10 50 Little Rock AR 99 74 97 74 / 50 30 10 50 Monticello AR 99 73 98 75 / 20 30 20 40 Mount Ida AR 97 70 96 71 / 30 20 10 50 Mountain Home AR 94 68 91 69 / 40 20 0 50 Newport AR 97 71 94 72 / 50 30 0 40 Pine Bluff AR 98 71 96 72 / 30 20 10 50 Russellville AR 98 72 95 72 / 30 20 10 60 Searcy AR 98 71 95 71 / 60 20 10 50 Stuttgart AR 98 73 96 73 / 50 30 10 50 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ052-053-062>069. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...74  811 FXUS63 KBIS 220537 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1237 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near average temperatures are favored to continue through next week, with Monday being a slightly warmer day. - Medium chances (30 to 60 percent) for showers and thunderstorms late Saturday night through Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 With high pressure settling over the region under a mostly clear sky, the overnight low temperature forecast was lowered by a few degrees. Otherwise, the forecast remains in good shape. UPDATE Issued at 923 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A quiet night continues with no updates needed at this time. UPDATE Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Showers and thundershowers have exited the forecast area. Therefore, removed any remaining PoPs early this evening. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Currently, northwest flow aloft with an elongated upper level ridge stretched from the Southern Rockies into the Pacific Northwest. Embedded wave and subtle frontal boundary contributing to an area of showers/isolated thunderstorms moving south-southeast across the area this afternoon. This activity will move out of the general area over the next few hours, with a quiet night expected with sfc high pressure building in. Surface high pressure building into the Northern Plains will result in quiet weather to start the weekend. As the sfc high develops east across the region, increasing southerly return flow will see increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms along with temperature trending warmer Sunday into Monday. The remainder of the week will see a Rockies upper level ridge rebuilding and periodically breaking down, resulting in seasonal temperatures though periods of enhanced precipitation chances. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Winds will remain light and variable in central North Dakota while becoming southeast around 10 kts in western North Dakota on Saturday. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan DISCUSSION...NH AVIATION...Hollan  775 FXUS63 KSGF 220536 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1236 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will range from the upper 80s northeast of Springfield to the 90s elsewhere this weekend into next week. Heat indicies in the upper 90s to around 100 southwest of Springfield. - Marginal risk for severe storms west of Springfield Saturday morning. 20-50% chance of showers and storms Saturday morning and again Sunday night generally along and west of Highway 65. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis still shows the region in a northwest flow aloft with the upper level high west of the area across the Rockies. A surface front remains across the Red River Valley with variable winds across the area. 12z KSGF sounding continues to show some drier air aloft with a PW value around 1.16in. Other than some high cirrus clouds, skies were mostly sunny early this afternoon. Temps in central Missouri have warmed into the middle 80s with upper 80s to lower 90s. Shower and Storms Saturday Morning: An upper level disturbance will slide southeast through the Dakotas and into Nebraska this evening. At the same time, a low level jet will increase from Kansas into southern Nebraska allowing for a cluster of showers and thunderstorms to form. A 2000j/kg MU CAPE corridor looks to set up from central and eastern Kansas into northeast Oklahoma and far southwest Missouri. Mean wind vectors all point to this cluster of storms moving southeast through the instability corridor and towards the western portions of the area after 3am, most likely closer to sunrise Saturday. 30kts of 0-6km shear may allow for enough storm organization for a marginal risk of a severe storm with damaging winds however given the time of day we are not expecting very many, if any severe storms. This cluster of storms looks to then progress south/southeast through southwest Missouri during to mid to late morning hours, exiting the area by the afternoon. We have used the latest short term model guidance to increase precip chances closer to 40 percent for Saturday morning for locations west of Highway 65. If trends continue, we will likely have to increase these chances even further. The drier air across the eastern ozarks will likely be a factor as to how far east storms make it. The increased precip chances and morning clouds will likely keep temps down and have trended towards high temps perhaps reaching the low 90s by late afternoon. Cloud cover will be critical to the determination of final high temps Saturday afternoon. Precip chances then drop below 10 percent for Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Additional Precip Chances Sunday Night: Sunday looks mainly dry with highs in the 80s northeast of Springfield to the 90s elsewhere. Another shortwave looks to slide southeast through the flow into the area late Sunday night. Another cluster of showers and storms looks to form somewhere in eastern Kansas and move southeast towards the area. Plenty of uncertainty remains as to this cluster of storms and expect additional updates. Precip chances beyond Sunday night are currently less than 20 percent however given this current pattern, additional time periods may see chances increase. Continued Hot Temperatures: Outside of any precip chances, mean 850mb temps in the lower 20s Celsius along with increasing drought (D0 and D1 are expanding per latest Drought Monitor) should allow for highs to reach the 90s across most of the area this weekend into early next week. Locations west of Springfield will be the hottest with highs in the upper 90s to around 100. The latest CPC outlook for late August into early September favors above normal temperatures continuing. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 There is around a 30% chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, but confidence is quite limited until a potential incoming thunderstorm complex gets closer to the area. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Titus  750 FXUS64 KMOB 220536 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1236 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1234 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Very hot conditions continue today with peak heat indices in the 108 to 112 range. - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon will continue to be capable of producing brief intense rainfall, excessive lightning, and strong to damaging wind gusts. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Hot and generally drier conditions are expected through the weekend. Lower rain chances are expected thanks to dry air aloft filtering into the region from the north as an upper trough amplifies over the Northeast. Boundary layer mixing each afternoon will help lower surface dew points enough to keep heat indices below advisory criteria despite high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s. However, a few localized heat index values of 108-110 cannot be ruled out near the coast where less mixing occurs with the sea breeze. Sunday will be the hotter of the two days for most areas. Drier thermodynamic profiles will suppress convective development this weekend, with PWATs falling to around 1.5 inches or lower. However, instability will remain quite high, so any sufficient convergence along the sea breeze or confluence bands could still produce an isolated storm or two each afternoon. With the dry air mass in place aloft, DCAPE values will be very high (around 1500 J/kg), so any storm that manages to initiate would carry the potential for strong microburst winds. That said, PoPs remain capped at around 10-20%. It may also be worth noting, several CAMs suggest a decaying MCS dropping southeastward could encroach on our northwestern counties this evening, but confidence is too low at this time to warrant more than 20% PoPs. The northwest flow regime will become increasingly active next week as moisture returns by Monday, with PWATs approaching 2 inches, then gradually increasing through Thursday as ensemble mean PWATs reach around 2.2 inches. Multiple shortwave impulses rounding the eastern periphery of the strong mid-level ridge centered over the Southern Plains and Desert Southwest will track southeastward toward the northern Gulf Coast. While the precise timing and location of individual impulses and associated convection remains uncertain, this general pattern should bring periodic rounds of unsettled weather to the region through the week. Deterministic guidance is fairly consistent in showing the first prominent shortwave approaching from the northwest during the day on Monday, introducing increased cloud cover and higher rain chances. The next main shortwave looks to impact the region in the Wednesday- Thursday timeframe, potentially bringing a more substantial threat for widespread showers and storms given the deeper moisture in place. Trends will be monitored for any flash flood or severe potential. Even in the absence of these disturbances, ample moisture and instability will favor scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms, primarily focused along the sea breeze and outflow boundary interactions. Increased cloud cover and rainfall should keep temperatures closer to average next week. Highs are forecast generally in the low to mid 90s with heat indices peaking in the 100-107 range. At the beaches, a Low risk of rip currents continues through early next week. JGC/98 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period outside of isolated showers and thunderstorms that will develop this afternoon, mainly along the coast. Brief periods of IFR/MVFR conditions and gusty winds will be possible in and around showers and thunderstorms. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 95 74 96 75 / 10 0 20 0 Pensacola 93 78 95 78 / 20 0 20 0 Destin 91 79 93 80 / 20 10 10 0 Evergreen 97 71 98 68 / 10 0 10 0 Waynesboro 99 73 100 70 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 97 72 96 70 / 0 0 10 10 Crestview 96 72 97 72 / 20 10 20 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  838 FXUS62 KMFL 220538 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 138 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon and into the evening. A couple of stronger storms are possible that could produce marginally severe winds. - A slightly earlier convective start and slightly lower dew points is expected to allow most areas to avoid heat advisory criteria. Peak heat index values could still reach 105-110F for short durations. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 There has not been much change in the pattern evolution for this weekend. From a synoptic standpoint, the ridge in the Southwestern US continues to strengthen and allows for increased jet dynamics to strengthen the trough over the Eastern Seaboard. The base of the trough is still not expected to make it into South Florida and the overall flow pattern will remain largely on the weaker side, but this enhanced troughing pattern is expected to keep a prevailing southerly/south-southwesterly flow pattern in place through the weekend. Therefore, with deep moisture advection continuing and elevated PWATs of 1.7-2.0" or even more in some areas, diurnal heating and sea breeze circulations each day will have the necessary ingredients to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. With the primary south to south-southwest flow, this will favor interior and Southeast Florida for highest rain chances this weekend as showers and storms are expected to be the most widespread in these areas. The most robust activity will occur in the later afternoon during peak diurnal heating and once the sea breeze boundaries advance inland. Model soundings do highlight adequate SBCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg as well as inverted-V signatures and steep low level lapse rates leading to DCAPE values of 1000-1200 J/kg, so there will be an outside chance for an isolated severe storm or two via gusty winds again both days this weekend. Otherwise, the primary hazards will continue to be heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flooding in poor drainage areas, and sub-severe strong wind gusts. High temperatures this weekend will remain in the low to mid 90s. The deeper moisture will also keep dew points in the mid to upper 70s for most areas each day, thus maximum heat index values are anticipated to remain elevated up to the 105-110F range. With the expectation of some increased cloud cover and an earlier initiation time for convection to develop, have opted to not issue a Heat Advisory today, which will end the streak of 13 consecutive days with at least a portion of the region being under a Heat Advisory unless a short-fused one is issued later today. HREF probabilities highlight a 10-20% or less chance for heat indices to reach 105F or higher at any point of day, which is even lower for occurring over two or more consecutive hours. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 As the trough draped across the Eastern Seaboard starts to erode early next week, the local wind regime will start to shift back to what we typically see in the summer time here in South Florida with low level flow being dominated by the Atlantic sea breeze. This will cause diurnal convection to start focusing back over both the interior and Southwest Florida rather than Southeast Florida like has been observed recently. Starting Monday, the highest rain chances (60-80%) will begin to focus across Southwest Florida and this will last through the end of the long term period. Other than the rain potential, there is also potential for another Saharan Air Layer (SAL)to impact the area early next week, but guidance highlights this SAL breaking up upon it's arrival and thus it's influence on a return to hot conditions should be less than the previous round. The SAL could lower rain chances for a day or two, but with this being a thinner layer that clears out much faster, not expecting there to be any days with limited to no rainfall across the region. High temperatures are projected to remain in the low to mid 90s each day. Overnight lows range from the low 70s across the interior and lake regions to the upper 70s and low 80s along the coastal metros. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR is expected for most of the period. Light winds from tonight increase after 16Z out of the southeast as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland. Shower and thunderstorm development may require short- fused AMDs and TEMPOs for some east coast terminals after 18-20Z. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the SW after 16Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Gentle west-southwest winds are expected across the Gulf waters this weekend with southeasterly winds across the Atlantic. Seas will remain at 1-2 feet or less each day across all local waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late each day and in the late night hours over the waters, which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 94 79 93 80 / 30 20 60 10 West Kendall 94 77 92 79 / 40 20 70 10 Opa-Locka 94 79 93 79 / 40 10 60 10 Homestead 93 79 92 80 / 30 20 60 10 Fort Lauderdale 93 80 92 80 / 30 10 50 10 N Ft Lauderdale 93 80 93 80 / 30 10 50 10 Pembroke Pines 93 80 93 80 / 40 10 50 10 West Palm Beach 94 78 94 78 / 40 10 50 10 Boca Raton 92 79 92 79 / 30 10 50 10 Naples 91 79 91 78 / 20 10 40 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...Redman  861 FXUS66 KHNX 220539 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1039 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Triple digit heat continues for San Joaquin Valley and Mojave Desert. 2. Monsoonal moisture brings 10 to 15 percent chance of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada Saturday afternoon. 3. 20-40% probability for extreme heat ending next week and starting September. && .DISCUSSION... Today's temperatures ranged from average to 5 degrees above, with the San Joaquin River serving as the invisible dividing line from north to south respectively. The latest National Blend of Models (NBM) run at 1Z Saturday indicates more or less the same will continue this weekend into the start of next week, with moderate to high (>50%) probability for triple digit afternoon highs staying south of the San Joaquin River. Likewise, afternoon highs above 105 in the Mojave Desert will be confined below 2,500 feet elevation. Minor to Moderate risk of heat illness continues to be the main weather threat for the region. Beyond central California, an upper level trough just off the Pacific Northwest coast will track inland overnight into Saturday morning. For us, this will provide just enough moisture transport from the south- southwest for thunderstorms to enter back into the forecast. As of the last NBM run, there is a 10-15% probability of afternoon thunderstorms along the Sierra Nevada crest down to 6,000 feet Saturday. By Sunday, as the upper level trough moves deeper into Canada, upper level flow returns to more benign westerlies that will bring thunderstorm probabilities back down to <10%. Looking towards the end of August, the Climate Prediction Center continues to highlight a higher likelihood of above average temperatures (50-70% probability) in the 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook, as well as a slight risk (20-40% probability) of extreme heat across our area. Meanwhile, the Weather Prediction Center continues to show about average temperatures in their Day 3-7 forecasts. Whether extreme heat is waiting for us in September remain to be seen in the coming discussions. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevailing for the next 24 hours. 10-15% probability of afternoon thunderstorms from 18Z Saturday to 3Z Sunday along the Sierra Nevada crest down to 6,000 feet elevation. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public...ND aviation....SM weather.gov/hanford  923 FXUS61 KRNK 220540 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 140 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated PoPs for lingering light showers overnight. Low stratus deck may hang around through most of this morning, then become partly cloud in the afternoon as a cold front approaches the area. Aviation Forecast Updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cold front pushing into the region late today will bring another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms. 2) Drier cooler weather returns Sunday and continues into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front pushing into the region late today will bring another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Late this afternoon, dark clouds will gather over the mountains as an upper-level trough begins pushing a cold front into the region. Thunderstorms will ignite first across the mountains, gradually spreading east into the foothills and Piedmont through the evening hours. Afternoon temperatures will top out in the upper 70s in the higher elevations and reach the low to mid-80s across the lower terrain, heating the humid lower atmosphere. Breaks in the cloud cover alongside cooling air aloft will allow the boundary layer to destabilize, creating conditions capable of triggering a few strong to severe thunderstorms. Any severe storms that develop will bring the risk of localized downbursts and damaging winds. As the night progresses, west winds will strengthen behind the front, steadily drying out the atmosphere and causing the showers to diminish and exit the area completely by midnight. KEY MESSAGE 2: Drier cooler weather returns Sunday and continues into early next week. Following the passage of the front, a much cooler and drier air mass will settle into the region as high pressure builds east across the Mid-Atlantic. The coolest air will arrive on Sunday and Monday, keeping high temperatures in the 70s across the mountains and holding them in the low to mid-80s to the east. Morning temperatures on Sunday and Monday will drop into the 50s, with a few mountain locations slipping into the low 50s. Patchy morning fog will drift through the mountain river valleys, giving way to cool, crisp, and dry afternoons across much of the region through Wednesday. By Thursday, the surface high pressure and upper-level trough will begin to break down, allowing moisture to return and scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop once again. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High-end MVFR to low-end VFR ceilings will persist across the area through this morning, with a stubborn stratus deck serving as the primary restriction. Dense fog will threaten visibility in low-lying areas, especially near KLWB. Light surface winds will do little to scour out the trapped moisture through mid- morning, keeping cloud bases low. By afternoon, solar heating and increased vertical mixing will lift ceilings back into VFR territory. However, an approaching cold front will push into the region later in the day, triggering a round of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. While overall coverage will remain scattered, strong surface heating will allow a few isolated cells to become strong to severe late in the day. OUTLOOK... Drier airmass situated over the Great Lakes will sink into the area Sunday into early next week. Should be mainly VFR aside from any late night fog, mainly LWB/BCB. Next system appears to bring some chances for storms Wednesday with possibility for sub-VFR cigs/vsbys. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RCS AVIATION...RCS  939 FXUS62 KMHX 220541 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 141 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Heat Advisory and Severe Tstorm Watch cancelled earlier this evening A Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of eastern NC through tomorrow morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) An active pattern is expected through Saturday, including a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms, heavy rain, and flooding. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Forecast through tomorrow will be heavily dependent on various mesoscale features, which in turn will dictate where stronger storms and flooding will be focused. Fluctuation's in risk areas are likely as ongoing convective evolution is analyzed. Environment today has indeed been favorable for strong storms and torrential rainfall. Convection got an early start, developing as early as 11 AM and blossoming along the stalled frontal boundary, then compounding with convergent outflows and diurnal sound and sea breezes. Severe and flooding risk has decreased substantially for the rest of this evening, as outflows have worked over the environment bringing widespread convective inhibition to the region. Still. PWATs are impressive and moderate rainfall is occuring and expected to continue. The combination of lesser surface based instability and an anomalously moist airmass should continue to support the potential of 1-2"/hr rainfall rates. Continued rainfall chances tonight keep the Flood Watch in effect, but current radar trends suggest flooding threat is decreasing. Convective threat remains tomorrow as front remains stalled over the region. Like today, convection could get an early start as soon as 15z and spread inland through the afternoon. Shear will be quite a bit weaker and the severe threat will be less than 5%, but high forecast PWATS point to another day of efficient rainmakers and potential flooding concerns. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecast confidence is low to moderate over the next 24 hours. An area of LIFR CIGs has recently developed across the coastal plain of ENC and this is expected to continue expanding north through the night. Guidance suggests that once LIFR conditions set in, they will stay in place through early Saturday morning. However, obs west of the coastal plain show a mix of VFR and LIFR conditions, suggesting the are of LIFR CIGs may be transient. For now the TAFs will reflect the more pessimistic scenario, with LIFR conditions holding on much of the night. One caveat is an area of light to moderate RA lifting north from near KILM. This may disrupt the low CIGs some, especially from KOAJ to KEWN. On Saturday, CIGs are forecast to rise to MVFR levels, with VFR conditions potentially not returning until early Saturday evening. The TSRA risk is expected to remain low overnight for all TAF sites. The risk is then expected to increase after 11z/12z Saturday as an upper level wave lifts north through the area. The greatest TSRA risk is expected from KOAJ to KEWN, with a somewhat lower risk at KISO and KPGV. In light of this, I dropped the TSRA mention down from VCTS to PROB30 for those two sites. TSRA will be capable of LIFR/IFR VIS and gusty winds to 40kt. Outlook: A stronger cold front is forecast to reach the area on Sunday, but guidance now suggests it may stall along the coast through Monday. Should this occur, the TSRA risk would linger along the coast longer than previously forecast. However, even in that scenario, the risk may remain just east of the TAF sites. && .MARINE... Local and regional observations show a frontal boundary has pushed south and stalled over area waters, orientated roughly from Ocracoke to the mouth of the Neuse River. Winds on either side ofthe boundary are around 10 kt with seas a subdued 2-3 feet. Main threat for marine interests through tonight and into tomorrow will be convection, especially overnight as a complex originating over SC progresses and begins to impact waters close to midnight. These storms will pose a risk of strong winds potentially exceeding 40 kt as well as waterspouts, especially for cells close to the frontal boundary. Outlook: An active thunderstorm pattern is expected to last into at least tomorrow, with a somewhat lower risk by Sunday and Monday. A more dominant southerly flow is expected to become established on Saturday and last into Sunday. A cold front then moves through late Sunday with a west to northwest wind shift. Seas build to 3-5ft on Saturday, then lay down to 2-3ft by late Sunday as winds also lay down. Light winds and reduced seas are then expected into the middle of next week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for NCZ044-079-080- 090>092-094-193-194-198. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RM/MS/RJ AVIATION...RM MARINE...RM/MS  908 FXUS63 KGRR 220540 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 140 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers/thunderstorms today into Saturday - Cooler and dry Sunday through Tuesday, midweek rain chances && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 314 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Scattered showers/thunderstorms today into Saturday Scattered thunderstorm cells have developed along an inland surface trough / confluence zone east of US-131 and will move east this evening. These are ahead of diminishing convection from Wisconsin with midlevel MCVs apparent on radar. The storms are in an area of MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg. Modeled effective shear is no more than 20 knots, though it's possible the MCVs could boost the shear values somewhat and provide greater longevity to the cells. Small hail and wind gusts to 40 overall are possible today. Additional scattered storm cells are likely tonight, with elevated bases via 850 mb moisture, then may become more surface based as they move toward Mid Michigan later Saturday. CAPE values will generally be 500-1500 J/kg and effective shear is likely to remain no more than 20-25 knots. Lapse rates both at low and mid levels should be fairly modest during much of this activity which should also help keep severe wind/hail potential low. QPF mean is about 0.10 to 0.25, though more realistically, amounts will be more hit or miss, with a few isolated totals closer to 1 inch possible. - Cooler and dry Sunday through Tuesday, midweek rain chances Northwest flow Sunday and Monday will provide slightly cooler, drier, more comfortable air as the upper-level trough turns cutoff low over the eastern/northeastern Great Lakes region. A minor return of moisture and warmer air occurs from late Tue into Wed, with scattered thunderstorms again possible with the next frontal wave. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 140 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 As well depicted by the 00z HRRR, a batch of showers and a few thunderstorms developed over Lake Michigan between 04z-05z and were moving east. With weak shear, this activity will tend to wax and wane through 10z or so, with some periods of IFR most probable at GRR. Given cell movement, felt most confident to put TEMPO in for -TSRA at GRR through 10z. With a cold front passing through around 12z, expect a wind shift to occur with SW winds turning NW through mid morning. Rain chances decrease from west to east, with LAN/JXN the last to clear out potentially as late as 18z or so. && .MARINE... Issued at 314 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Ongoing Beach Hazards Statement / Small Craft Advisory for near Big and Little Sable Points through Fri evening is fairly low confidence given latest data, as south winds 10-15 knots may only build up 2 to 4 foot waves with a moderate swim risk before subsiding tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are possible over the lake tonight with a low chance for gusts to 30 knots. More likely hazards from wind, waves and currents for this weekend as north-northwest winds increase behind a cold front. There remain some differences in the models regarding the strength of winds at times, but overall, waves should build to 3 to 6 feet at most beaches later Saturday morning. Then after a slight lull Saturday evening, winds likely strengthen and waves build again Saturday night into Sunday. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through Sunday evening for MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...CAS AVIATION...Hoving MARINE...CAS  889 FXUS64 KBRO 220539 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1239 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1237 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Hot and rain-free conditions will continue through late next week. - Moderate (level 2 of 4) to major risk (3 of 4) of heat-relatedimpacts through the period with peak afternoon heat indices generally between 105 to around 110 degrees. - The combination of low minimum relativity humidity values, dry fuels, and very hot temperatures could lead to the potential for rapid wildfire spread through the period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1038 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A 500 mb ridge will meander over the Four Corners region through the middle of next week. This will continue to provide strong subsidence across Deep South Texas with very hot and mainly rain-free conditions through forecast period. Daily high temperatures are expected to reach the upper 90s to around 105 degrees, except near the coast. The combination of the very hot temperatures and elevated dewpoint temperatures will support heat indices generally between 105 to 110 degrees each afternoon. Heat indices may briefly reach 111+ at a few locations in the afternoon, but temperatures should remain just below Heat Advisory criteria each day. Widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) to Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk expected through the weekend and into the middle of next week. Some pockets of Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk will be possible by late next week. The combination of low minimum relativity humidity values, dry fuels, and very hot temperatures could lead to the potential for rapid wildfire spread through the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are forecast to continue through the TAF period. Light southeasterly winds are forecast to continue through the morning, with wind speeds and gusts increasing Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1038 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A slightly enhanced pressure gradient over the western Gulf may produce Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions on the Laguna Madre at times. Otherwise, mariners can expect generally favorable conditions with moderate south to southeast winds and seas of 2 to 3 feet through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 100 79 98 80 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 104 75 103 76 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 106 78 105 79 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 106 76 105 76 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 90 80 89 81 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 98 77 97 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...63 LONG TERM....63 AVIATION...60-BE  029 FXUS61 KCLE 220544 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 144 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...06z TAF Aviation Forecast Update... .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Forecast remains on track. Low chance for precipitation in NW OH late this evening with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected Saturday afternoon and evening with a low end severe threat. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms expected late tonight and, with greater coverage, Saturday afternoon and evening with a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe weather. 2) Lingering showers in NE OH and NW PA likely Sunday through Monday with below average temperatures expected across the region. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure continues to build off to into Eastern Canada through the end of the today as a surface low pressure system enters the Western Great Lakes. This system will bring widespread precipitation and severe weather potential to the region Saturday afternoon into the evening. Ahead of this system, a shortwave is expected to move through the Southern Great Lakes that will generate some low end potential for showers and thunderstorms mainly for Western and North Central Ohio. Through the early morning there may be some lingering showers across Western Ohio that will be dissipating as the move eastward into the mid morning hours. This could inhibit the overall severe weather threat later in the afternoon and evening depending on how quickly the showers dissipate and cloud cover clears. Ahead of the surface cold front, there will be a pre-frontal that will move through the region and be the support for severe weather to develop off of. Models have been in decent agreement of the timing of storms starting in North Central Ohio in the late afternoon and moving eastward through the late evening. There will be decent instability in the form of around 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with low level lapse rates of 7.0-7.5 C/km. Though, the limited amount of shear will be a limiting factor for severe weather potential as there will be around 20-30 knots of bulk shear. The main threats for this system will be damaging winds within downbursts with a secondary threat of large hail possible. The cold front will pass through late Saturday evening into early Sunday morning, though with the atmosphere being worked over with the pre-frontal trough, severe weather is not expected with the passage. Overall precipitation accumulation has remained on track with previous forecast runs with between 0.25" and 0.75" expected, with the higher end amounts across Northeastern Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania. Flash flooding potential is on the lower end for this system, though a quick inch or two of rain is possible in the stronger storms that could bring some nuisance flooding. Overall, the severe weather threat and widespread precipitation is expected to end before daybreak on Sunday. KEY MESSAGE 2... Behind the cold front passage early Sunday morning there will be a lingering trough that sets up across Eastern Lake Erie that persists through Monday. A much cooler Canadian high pressure will begin to build into the Western Great Lakes on Sunday as well that will usher in unseasonably cooler temperatures. With the lake relatively warm still, lake effect showers are likely across the primary snowbelt region. Showers will persist through Monday with chances decreasing into Tuesday as upper level ridge builds in to the Ohio Valley that will shift flow across Lake Erie to be more westerly than northwesterly. Temperatures as a result of the Canadian high pressure building in will drop to be below average for Sunday and Monday before beginning to rebound Tuesday. Highs across the region on Sunday will be in the upper 60s in Northwest Pennsylvania to the mid 70s in Northwestern Ohio. Monday, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler before everyone warms back up into the mid 70s on Tuesday. Overnight lows will be down into the mid to low 50s Sunday and Monday before they rise back up to near normal. && .AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... The primary concerns and possible impacts for our local aviation weather at area airports will be the potential for a round of scattered convection this afternoon into the early evening. There is a marginal risk for a couple strong to severe storms ahead of an approaching cold front later today. There is some isolated convection with a warm front early this morning which could impact CLE briefly between 06z and 09z with VCTS or -TSRA. There will be a lull in shower and storm chances through late this morning. The cold front will start to move into NWOH around midday to early afternoon. There are PROB30 groups for a 5 to 6 hour time window from west to east between 16z this afternoon to 01z this evening. Any heavier showers and storm that impacts a TAF site will likely have a brief period of MVFR to IFR visibility reductions and ceilings with CB around 3K feet near the frontal passage. The convection should move eastward out of the NEOH and NWPA after 00z Scattered lake enhanced rain showers will likely develop around CLE, YNG, and ERI later this evening into the overnight with possible MVFR ceilings and visibility at times. Winds will start out from the south or southwest this morning 5 to 10 knots. Southwest winds will slightly increase 8 to 12 knots by midday through the afternoon/evening with gusts up to 20 knots possible. Any isolated strong to severe convection may have some isolated higher wind gusts up to 45 knots this afternoon. Winds will switch from the west-northwest late this evening and overnight 5 to 10 knots. Outlook...Non-VFR conditions will be likely Sunday through Monday morning with lake enhanced rain showers and isolated thunder possible for areas downwind of Lake Erie in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. && .MARINE... Onshore flow out of the northeast ends this evening, turning offshore tonight less than 10kts and wave heights coming down below 1ft. A cold front approaches Saturday with increasing storm chances, and passage across the lake expected in the evening. Winds become northwesterly 15-25kts through Sunday night with wave heights climbing to 3-6ft and will likely need a Small Craft Advisory for the central and eastern basins. With this being a cooler airmass over the warmer lake, waterspouts could become an issue during this same time frame. Winds ease and become offshore midweek, bringing wave heights down. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...23 AVIATION...77 MARINE...77  301 FXUS63 KICT 220549 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1249 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few thunderstorms possible late this afternoon/evening; better chances late tonight into Saturday morning - Additional storm chances, especially at night, this weekend into next week - Temperatures remain near or above normal && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 As of 2 PM Friday afternoon, an amplified midlevel pattern remains across the CONUS with troughing across the eastern US and ridging across the western half. This particular pattern leaves KS within a northwest flow regime with the core of the ridge southwest of the state across the Four Corners region. A low and midlevel baroclinic zone extends from western SD through portions of eastern KS. Regional radar reveals a cluster of thunderstorm activity across portions of central and eastern NE. This is activity is being further enhanced by a 40-50 kt midlevel speed max diving southeast across SD/NE. The downstream across northern KS seems quite unfavorable for storm maintenance with considerable convective inhibition. Latest mesoanalysis reveals 150-200 J/kg of inhibition. As a result, short range guidance lends little help with how this convection will evolve into KS. Given the lack of well-established, deep-convection combined with the increasing convective inhibition into KS, hedging to a mostly dry afternoon/evening across the forecast area. Short term satellite/radar trends will need to be monitored. Thunderstorm chances are expected to increase late tonight into Saturday morning as portions of northern/eastern KS remain within the low/level baroclinic zone. A strengthening LLJ of 30-35 kt should provide a focal point for additional storm development from western into central NE. Mean storm motions are expected to be towards the southeast, bringing storm chances into portions of northern/eastern KS generally after 2-3 AM. The best storm chances extend generally along/east of I-135. Elevated instability up to 1500 J/kg combined with effective shear of 30-35 kt could support a large hail potential. DCAPE values of 1000-1200 J/kg would support a damaging wind potential as well. As the LLJ weakens Saturday morning, the coverage of shower and storm activity should diminish. The forecast area will remain within a northwest midlevel flow regime into next week, as subtle perturbations eject into Plains on a near-daily occurrence. This will support at least small storm chances, especially at night. This includes Saturday night into Sunday morning as convection develops across CO and gradually moves east into the Plains. The lack of obvious forcing for ascent lends to low confidence in storm coverage/timing. In regards to temperatures, the core of the midlevel ridge will remain southwest of the forecast area over the next 7 days. This should keep the hottest temperatures southwest of the state with highs generally in the low to mid 90s each afternoon. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Main aviation concern will be storm chances early this morning. Area remains in northwest flow aloft with a broad area of upper diffluence along with mid level warm advection remaining in place. Storms have developed over northern Nebraska and will continue to push south overnight with some additional development also possible ahead of it. This activity should get into our forecast area in the 10-14z time frame with low confidence on how widespread they will be or what exact track they will take. So for now, just ran with Prob30s at all sites around or shortly after sunrise. Outside of storms, VFR conditions are anticipated. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BRF AVIATION...RBL  279 FXUS65 KGJT 220548 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1148 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Monsoonal moisture will cause precipitation chances to become more widespread Saturday. - Heavier rainfall Saturday could lead to localized flash flooding over burn scars and susceptible terrain. - Temperatures gradually cool off for the weekend and into next week but still remains above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1014 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 COOLER & WETTER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND: High pressure will continue to be centered over our region through the weekend. Clockwise flow around this system will favor moisture advection into our CWA. Hence, precipitation chances will become more widespread Saturday under dominant southwesterly flow. Deterministic models are hinting at PWATs at 150-180% of normal during this time period. Storms are expected to favor the higher terrain initially, but adjacent valleys could also get in on the action as storms begin to move off the terrain. Models also seem to be hinting at a shortwave disturbing the driving flow Saturday, which would mean additional lift in an already saturated environment. This will subsequently increase flash flooding and debris flow concerns. Continue to be weather aware and have multiple ways to receive watches and warnings. Afternoon storm chances will be around Sunday as well while the increased atmospheric moisture remains in place. However, storm chances will be mostly confined to the higher terrain as no additional lift is anticipated from synoptic forcing. With that being said, flash flooding and debris flow concerns persist through at least Sunday as localized heavy rainfall remains a possibility. Daytime highs cool by about 5 degrees for the weekend, but still remain above normal for this time of year. NEXT WEEK: The environment continues to be saturated into next week which will keep afternoon thunderstorms in the forecast daily for the higher terrain. It is unclear how precipitation chances will pan out for the lower valleys at the moment. As more HiRes guidance becomes available, we will likely have a better grasp on what's to come. Daytime highs hold steady as we move into next week with most locations seeing similar temperatures as the weekend. These values will still be above normal but not quite into record breaking territory anymore. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1134 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Isolated showers with a few embedded thunderstorms continue across eastern Utah. Look for thunderstorms to diminish over the next few hours, ending about 09Z while showers will linger through 12Z. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will pickup after 18Z mostly over the higher terrain across the region with a few moving off the terrain into the lower valleys through the late afternoon. These storms will diminish after 00Z. Primary threats from these storms will be lightning, gusts to 45 kts and brief heavy rain producing MVFR ceilings and visibilities. Otherwise, outside of storms, expect VFR conditions through the TAF period with generally light terrain driven winds. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BS AVIATION...DB  371 FXUS61 KBOX 220551 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 151 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Rip Current Statement has been issued for Plymouth and Barnstable Counties for Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Below normal temperatures and overcast conditions continue through the weekend. Drizzle/misty weather through Saturday then a period of heavier rain possible overnight into Sunday. - Drier and warmer next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Below normal temperatures and overcast conditions continue through the weekend. Drizzle/misty weather through Saturday then a period of heavier rain possible overnight into Sunday. The low pressure system that's brought the misty and overcast weather today has dipped a little further south of Long Island than previously expected. The latest guidance suite is projecting the low slowly moves east through today then swings northeast around Nantucket tonight into Saturday. The interior is more likely to remain dry with a few pockets of mist through the rest of today, but eastern and Southeast MA and RI should see the mist linger with periodic light showers into Saturday. Most of southern New England should see a dry Saturday morning, except the Cape/Islands could see a few lingering showers. As the low weakens and wraps around the Cape Saturday, another round of heavier showers is expected to push into southern New England later Saturday evening into the overnight period. This round has the potential to develop a few heavier, convective bands of rain given the higher PWATs near 2.0" and favorable IVT. Guidance is split a few different ways on QPF totals: Global ensembles show generally a 30 to 40 percent chance of 1.0" in 24 hours over the Cape/Islands by sunrise Sunday, except the GFS ensemble which indicates much less rainfall and also located further offshore. CAM and higher resolution guidance has the same bullseye on the Cape, but also identifies and secondary precip max approaching 1.0" in 24 hours across interior CT and western MA. Given how the guidance is struggling to resolve the exact track of the low due to the unexpected southern drop today, confidence is on the lower end specifically regarding rainfall across the interior, as a little wobbling east or west in the northeastward progression of the low will have a larger impact on precip totals. More of the same on Sunday as a cold front slowly approaches, sending moisture from the south out ahead of it. NE/E flow early becomes southerly advecting 70+ dewpoints into the region with PWATs 2+ inches. This while the surface low lifts north and east with the best convergence/forcing in the early morning with a lull possible in the late morning/afternoon then potential for some showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Given those dewpoints, CAPE values jump to 500-1000 J/kg and depending on how quickly the cold front arrives it could overcome marginal lapse rates to produce a strong to severe storm, especially in western SNE, given 0-6 km bulk shear values of 50+ kts. Otherwise, temperatures through the first half of the weekend will remain below seasonable under prolonged onshore/northeasterly flow... highs likely remain in the upper 60s to low 70s through Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier and warmer next week. By Monday the cold front has pushed through and ushers in a much drier and warmer start to the week. Dewpoints fall from near 65-70F Sun to 45-50F Mon. Rising heights and building surface high pressure will help to keep the forecast drier with perhaps some diurnal showers Tue under a weak shortwave. Otherwise, generally zonal flow takes hold through at least Thursday with no significant disturbances on the horizon, and no intrusions of anomalous heat orcold. Temperatures remain comfortable ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update: Through Saturday...Moderate confidence. MVFR ceilings should continue to move in over the region heading into the morning hours. IFR ceilings remain a possibility towards SE MA/Cape and Islands. Periods of mist and drizzle remain most likely over these same areas this morning, spreading over much of eastern MA and to ORH during the day. Winds generally NE to N at 5-10 kt. Saturday Night...Moderate confidence. Widespread MVFR/IFR should overspread the region heading into tonight as a round of steadier light to moderate rain approaches mainly after 06z Sunday. Exact timing may still change, and some areas, especially in eastern parts of the region, could see conditions deteriorate sooner than the rest of southern New England. Winds remain NE to N at 5-10 kt. Sunday...Moderate confidence. MVFR-IFR ceilings with periods of showers during the day. TSRA possible towards western MA and CT in the afternoon hours. Winds shift more S to SW ahead of an approaching cold front. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Conditions should deteriorate to MVFR, then remain there through the day. Periods of mist and drizzle possible throughout the day as well. The next round of showers should move in around 06z Sun, though uncertainty with exact timing remains. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Saturday Night...High confidence. Gusty NE winds near 25kts and waves near 5 ft across the southern waters gradually diminish through this evening and into tonight as the low weakens and moves further offshore. Otherwise, winds generally 18-20 kts and seas 3-4 ft through most of Saturday become more variable as the low breaks down Saturday night into Sunday morning. Despite the lower wave heights, the prolonged northeasterly flow will cause higher swells and longer swell periods Saturday which has prompted a Rip Current Statement for Plymouth and Barnstable Counties. Eastern, ocean-facing beaches will be primarily affected, especially across the northern portion of Cape Cod; however, bay- facing beaches may also experience rip currents. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Monday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Tuesday through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this afternoon for MAZ019-022. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BW/McMinn AVIATION...Hrencecin MARINE...McMinn  484 FXUS65 KTFX 220554 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1154 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe, Saturday and Sunday. - Elevated fire weather conditions Sunday as breezy winds develop in most areas behind a front. - On the warmer side of average next week with scattered showers and thunderstorms most days. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 558 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: The ridge axis associated with a high amplitude upper level ridge across the Northern Rockies will begin shifting east of the area late tonight and into the morning Saturday. This will eventually result in a southwesterly flow aloft which will foster scattered showers and thunderstorms this weekend ahead of a cold front. In the meantime the remainder of the afternoon looks dry and warm. A few showers or thunderstorms cannot be ruled out this evening along the Continental Divide in Southwest Montana, but those probabilities are low. Flow aloft into tomorrow has a much more southerly component than westerly, at least initially, which will aid in advecting in monsoonal moisture. Combine this with ample flow and forcing aloft from an approaching trough across the Pacific NW and scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will develop as a result. There looks to be enough of a balance between drier inverted-V lower level profiles and ample moisture aloft to result in both a gusty wind and excessive rainfall risk Saturday afternoon and evening. Forcing associated with the approaching upper level trough from the Pacific NW will keep at least widely scattered showers and thunderstorms around through the overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. Heading into Sunday the core of the upper level disturbance passes just north of the region, which will foster both a thunderstorm threat and fire weather threat. The magnitude and duration of each of these threats will be dictated by just how quickly an associated cold front moves through. Heading into next week Monday looks to be a slightly cooler day behind a front, but temperatures quickly trend back warmer by Tuesday. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft will keep at least isolated showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through next week. -AM - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Thunderstorms Saturday: There is still a bit of a north-south discrepancy with respect to where showers and thunderstorms develop through the day. Given precipitable water values near or in excess of an inch, wherever these thunderstorms develop will have the risk for at least briefly heavy rain. Areas of greatest concern for localized flash flooding will be in urban areas and over and near burn scars. The threat for gusty winds will also be around, with a few gusts in excess of 58 mph not out of the question. Sundays fire weather and thunderstorm risk: A quicker front would increase the duration of winds and related fire weather concerns, while a slower front would allow for greater instability to form and result in a greater thunderstorm risk. The kinematic environment for thunderstorms ahead of the front would be sufficient for a few organized thunderstorms, including a supercell or two, capable of gusty winds and hail. -AM && .AVIATION... 22/00Z TAF Period Predominantly VFR conditions across the region with some mild slant range visiblity reductions due to smoke in Southwest MT. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over far Southwest MT until 09Z creating strong gusts up to 40 KT and some cloud-to-ground lightning. A more organized line of widespread and stronger thunderstorms from the south will progress northeastward through the region Saturday afternoon after 21Z until late Saturday night bringing heavier rainfall and strong gusts over 40 KT with the potential for some to be severe. For KGTF: VFR conditions are expected overnight until light showers and thunderstorms arrive late morning follwed by stronger thunderstorms in the evening from 02Z to 04Z. Winds will be light and variable overnight then shift southwesterly after 16Z. Hazards for the thunderstorms will be gusty outflows of up to 40 KT as well as localized heavy rain and lightning. - Akins && .FIRE WEATHER... The fire weather concerns begin when isolated showers and storms with cloud to ground lightning and little precipitation pass through this evening into tonight. Even though this activity will be isolated, some new fire starts can't be ruled out. More productive storms move in on Saturday, but again the presence of cloud to ground lightning may ignite new fire starts. The most concerning day will be on Sunday when a surface front brings gusty westerly winds amid continued very warm and dry conditions. The timing of this front will ultimately determine how long the dry windy conditions persist. The latest NBM probabilistic guidance highlights large areas of north-central and portions of southwest Montana with over a 60% chance for wind gusts over 30 mph. Although the fuels aren't quite as dry as they were in earlier in the month, elevated fire conditions will be present and the wind may be enough to ignite any lightning caused hold over fires from Friday and Saturday's storms. - RCG && .HYDROLOGY... The combination of increased monsoonal moisture from the south and better surface Tds working in near the surface from the east will result in the risk for heavy rainfall from thunderstorms Saturday. Should confidence rise in these heavier thunderstorms occurring over a particular burn scar or urban area, a flash flood watch may become necessary. The better moisture begins to exit Sunday, which will close the window for the potential for excessive rainfall for the near term. -AM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 60 90 61 89 / 0 30 40 20 CTB 55 85 57 81 / 0 30 20 20 HLN 61 90 57 87 / 10 30 60 30 BZN 59 87 53 86 / 10 50 40 40 WYS 52 81 45 78 / 20 50 40 30 DLN 58 86 52 85 / 20 40 60 10 HVR 60 93 61 93 / 0 20 10 40 LWT 58 88 59 89 / 0 20 30 40 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  532 FXUS65 KTFX 220555 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1155 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe, Saturday and Sunday. - Elevated fire weather conditions Sunday as breezy winds develop in most areas behind a front. - On the warmer side of average next week with scattered showers and thunderstorms most days. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 1154 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: The ridge axis associated with a high amplitude upper level ridge across the Northern Rockies will begin shifting east of the area late tonight and into the morning Saturday. This will eventually result in a southwesterly flow aloft which will foster scattered showers and thunderstorms this weekend ahead of a cold front. In the meantime the remainder of the afternoon looks dry and warm. A few showers or thunderstorms cannot be ruled out this evening along the Continental Divide in Southwest Montana, but those probabilities are low. Flow aloft into tomorrow has a much more southerly component than westerly, at least initially, which will aid in advecting in monsoonal moisture. Combine this with ample flow and forcing aloft from an approaching trough across the Pacific NW and scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will develop as a result. There looks to be enough of a balance between drier inverted-V lower level profiles and ample moisture aloft to result in both a gusty wind and excessive rainfall risk Saturday afternoon and evening. Forcing associated with the approaching upper level trough from the Pacific NW will keep at least widely scattered showers and thunderstorms around through the overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. Heading into Sunday the core of the upper level disturbance passes just north of the region, which will foster both a thunderstorm threat and fire weather threat. The magnitude and duration of each of these threats will be dictated by just how quickly an associated cold front moves through. Heading into next week Monday looks to be a slightly cooler day behind a front, but temperatures quickly trend back warmer by Tuesday. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft will keep at least isolated showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through next week. -AM - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Thunderstorms Saturday: There is still a bit of a north-south discrepancy with respect to where showers and thunderstorms develop through the day. Given precipitable water values near or in excess of an inch, wherever these thunderstorms develop will have the risk for at least briefly heavy rain. Areas of greatest concern for localized flash flooding will be in urban areas and over and near burn scars. The threat for gusty winds will also be around, with a few gusts in excess of 58 mph not out of the question. Sundays fire weather and thunderstorm risk: A quicker front would increase the duration of winds and related fire weather concerns, while a slower front would allow for greater instability to form and result in a greater thunderstorm risk. The kinematic environment for thunderstorms ahead of the front would be sufficient for a few organized thunderstorms, including a supercell or two, capable of gusty winds and hail. -AM && .AVIATION... 22/06Z TAF Period Predominantly VFR conditions across the region with some mild slant range visiblity reductions due to smoke in Southwest MT. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over far Southwest MT until 09Z creating strong gusts up to 40 KT and some cloud-to-ground lightning. A more organized line of widespread and stronger thunderstorms from the south will progress northeastward through the region Saturday afternoon after 21Z until late Saturday night bringing heavier rainfall and strong gusts over 40 KT with the potential for some to be severe. For KGTF: VFR conditions are expected overnight until light showers and thunderstorms arrive late morning follwed by stronger thunderstorms in the evening from 02Z to 04Z. Winds will be light and variable overnight then shift southwesterly after 16Z. Hazards for the thunderstorms will be gusty outflows of up to 40 KT as well as localized heavy rain and lightning. - Akins && .FIRE WEATHER... The fire weather concerns begin when isolated showers and storms with cloud to ground lightning and little precipitation pass through this evening into tonight. Even though this activity will be isolated, some new fire starts can't be ruled out. More productive storms move in on Saturday, but again the presence of cloud to ground lightning may ignite new fire starts. The most concerning day will be on Sunday when a surface front brings gusty westerly winds amid continued very warm and dry conditions. The timing of this front will ultimately determine how long the dry windy conditions persist. The latest NBM probabilistic guidance highlights large areas of north-central and portions of southwest Montana with over a 60% chance for wind gusts over 30 mph. Although the fuels aren't quite as dry as they were in earlier in the month, elevated fire conditions will be present and the wind may be enough to ignite any lightning caused hold over fires from Friday and Saturday's storms. - RCG && .HYDROLOGY... The combination of increased monsoonal moisture from the south and better surface Tds working in near the surface from the east will result in the risk for heavy rainfall from thunderstorms Saturday. Should confidence rise in these heavier thunderstorms occurring over a particular burn scar or urban area, a flash flood watch may become necessary. The better moisture begins to exit Sunday, which will close the window for the potential for excessive rainfall for the near term. -AM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 60 90 61 89 / 0 30 40 20 CTB 55 85 57 81 / 0 30 20 20 HLN 61 90 57 87 / 10 30 60 30 BZN 59 87 53 86 / 10 50 40 40 WYS 52 81 45 78 / 20 50 40 30 DLN 58 86 52 85 / 20 40 60 10 HVR 60 93 61 93 / 0 20 10 40 LWT 58 88 59 89 / 0 20 30 40 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  555 FXUS61 KBGM 220555 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 155 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes made to the forecast at this time. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A broad upper level low moving southeastward into the area tonight into Sunday is expected to lead to unsettled weather into early next week. 2) High pressure builds in for a brief lull in wet weather Wednesday, then additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to return Thursday into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A broad upper trough will be setting up across the eastern U.S. this weekend with an upper low dropping southeastward out of Canada and becoming a closed low over the Great Lakes on Sunday. A surface low is expected to develop over the eastern Great Lakes region as well Saturday night into Sunday. These features are expected to be the main drivers of our weather into early next week. There is also a surface low developing near the mid- Atlantic coast today that will be sliding northeastward but most of the moisture from this is expected to pass by off to our south and east. Clouds will increase from south to north and there can be some isolated showers this afternoon and evening, but shower chances will increase later tonight into Sunday as an embedded upper shortwave rotates into the area and the upper trough becomes more neutral to slightly negatively tilted as it shifts east. Chances for thunder look to be pretty low this afternoon and evening with modest instability (500 to locally 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE), but little in the way of MLCAPE and bulk shear. Mid- level lapse rates are poor as well, so thunder was reduced to just a slight chance during this time. The surface low over the eastern Great Lakes is expected to lift north-northeast, passing just north and west of the CWA Sunday. As it shifts north toward the Ontario/Quebec border, it will drag a surface cold front across the region Sunday (timing of the frontal boundary is a bit uncertain). The chance for thunder is a little better on Sunday as 0-6km shear noticeably increases to 35-50 knots across the CWA and mid-level lapse rates are a bit higher around 6- 6.5 C/km as well. MUCAPE still looks to average 500-1000 J/kg, but the NAM is a little more bullish east of I-81. In the wake of the frontal passage, model guidance suggests there can be a brief break in shower activity as a dry slot develops Sunday evening. By Monday, the 500mb closed low moves overhead. This combined with with cooler air aloft moving over the Great Lakes with 850mb temps falling to +6C to +10C and a west to northwest flow in place, additional showers are expected to develop. As the upper low lifts NE Tuesday, there could be a few lingering showers downwind of Lake Ontario near and north of the NYS Thruway before drier conditions return. Near to slightly below average temperatures are expected this weekend before turning noticeably cooler Monday with the upper low overhead with highs in the 60s and low 70s. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure briefly builds in Tuesday night into Wednesday with dry conditions. Then Thursday into Friday, model guidance suggests a similar pattern to this weekend setting back up with a potential low moving up from the south and another upper trough pushing in from the west that would bring the chance for additional showers and thunderstorms. As of now these features appear to be more progressive and look to move out of the region by next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure in place and dry air mixing in this afternoon means that fog will be limited to ELM tonight. Fog develops later, likely not till after 6Z tonight at ELM with LIFR conditions likely by around 9Z. Fog lifts after 13Z with VFR conditions tomorrow. All other terminals will be VFR for the entire 24 hour period. Some showers try to move in from the west in the afternoon but associated restrictions are not till after 0Z. Outlook... Saturday Night into Sunday...Showers and potentially thunderstorms with associated restrictions. Monday...Scattered showers at the Central NY terminals with associated restrictions possible. Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DK AVIATION...AJG/KL  582 FXUS63 KDLH 220556 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1256 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers exiting by early this morning. Portions of the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin could see a few sprinkles from late this morning through early evening. - Otherwise, dry and sunny for this weekend with lower dewpoints and seasonal temperatures. Breezy northwest winds for today. - Chilly Sunday and Monday mornings with low temperatures in the 40s and possibly upper 30s in the typical cold spots. No frost is forecast at this time. - Next chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms is early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1146 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A low pressure system to our north continues to influence our weather today. A second cold front is expected to drop down into the Northland from western Ontario this afternoon and evening bringing a chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. While there is a little bubble of instability ahead and along with this front, shear is somewhat limited around 20-30knots. No severe storms are expected, but a couple stronger storms capable of producing up to penny size hail are possible, especially for the Borderlands and MN Arrowhead. Any precipitation activity should come to an end through the evening and overnight. Into the weekend, an upper level trough is expected to morph into an elongated cut off upper level low over the eastern Great Lakes and eastern Ontario. This will bring northwesterly flow and drier air back into our region. Temperatures should largely be around normal during the day. Lower dewpoints in the 40s and clearing skies could lead to a chilly night Saturday into Sunday morning with overnight lows in the 40s possible - a couple overachieving localized cold spots might see some high 30s again. Global models continue to point towards another upper level trough with a preceding shortwave wandering across the Canadian Plains and into our neck of the woods early next week. This could bring scattered rain chances back to the Northland Monday night into Wednesday. Depending on how these chances play out, areas of the Northland will likely continue to deal with the ongoing drought rigmarole as the best rainfall amounts could be hit or miss. Temperatures stay around average through the extended forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A few remnant showers are moving out of north-central Wisconsin early during the current overnight as a cold front moves through. Behind this, expect clearing skies with very patchy fog potential in the early morning. Have included some MVFR fog mention at KHYR. However, farther behind the front winds may stay just strong enough above calm to prevent denser fog development at other terminals. Latest weather model guidance shows a 20% or less chance of fog with visibility of 1 mile or less at DLH/HIB/BRD/HYR. If winds go calm, these probabilities may increase, especially for BRD where showers and thunderstorms occurred this past evening. Gusty northwesterly winds increase this morning through early evening, with gusts to around 20-25 kts along with some diurnal cumulus developing late this morning through early evening at most terminals. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 1146 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Light westerly winds are expected today and Saturday, with some afternoon gusts of 10-15knots possible. Sunday, expect north to northeasterly winds overnight, becoming an onshore lake breeze in the afternoon. There could be some scattered rain showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon into the evening, but no severe weather is expected. Patchy dense fog is possible overnight tonight into Saturday morning. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1146 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A secondary cold front is expected to push through the area this afternoon and evening. This could bring some scattered showers and thunderstorms as it arrives, most likely for northern MN and the Borderlands. No severe weather is expected, but a couple stronger storms are possible. As that front passes, northwesterly flow and drier air return. Expect afternoon RH on Saturday and Sunday to fall into the 30-45% range, with some locally lower values possible, driest on Sunday. Some gustier post-frontal northwest winds are possible on Saturday with afternoon sustained winds of 8-12mph and gusts of 15-20mph. Winds should be fairly light on Sunday. Moisture should return into Monday/Tuesday as our next chance of rain arrives early next week. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Levens AVIATION...Rothstein MARINE...Levens FIRE WEATHER...Levens  712 FXUS61 KCTP 220559 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 159 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Trending seasonably cooler this weekend into early next week with showery periods Saturday and Sunday && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Trending seasonably cooler this weekend into early next week with showery periods Saturday and Sunday Large scale trough amplification expected over the Great Lakes region this weekend into early next week will spell a modest to seasonable cooling trend with showery periods Saturday and Sunday. The cyclonic flow may keep showers downwind of Lake Erie into Monday. Daytime highs will be near to slightly below the historical average for late August, making it feel more like mid September especially Sunday into Monday. SPC trimmed the MRGL back a bit to the west on Saturday, which should feature early day clouds and a few showers spreading from SE to NW during the day. Drier/less humid conditions are likely to prevail during the first half of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As mentioned in the previous update, drier air and slightly more persistent winds will preclude a more widespread fog risk tonight. BR development at some sites though cannot be ruled out though. Confidence in MVFR ceilings developing this morning is highest at LNS and to a lesser extent MDT given greater moisture return in the southeast. While VFR in a SCT/BKN low level cloud deck will be the prevailing conditions tomorrow, some isolated showers are possible in the afternoon. Chances for this are highest at MDT and LNS with spotty morning activity possible as well. This activity may lead to bounces between VFR and MVFR throughout the day tomorrow in the southeast, with greater restrictions more likely at LNS. This showery activity will be ahead of a cluster of storms moving through in the evening/early night. Have updated PROB30s for -TSRA to reflect most confident timing at the current moment. HREF ensemble and NBM trending later in storm timing in their most recent runs. Should a strong core cross paths with an airfield, brief IFR restrictions are possible. Outlook... Sun...Restrictions possible, mainly NW in SHRA. Improvement elsewhere. Mon-Wed...Patchy morning fog, otherwise mainly VFR conditions return early next week. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl DISCUSSION...Steinbugl AVIATION...Lambrech  707 FXUS65 KABQ 220559 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1159 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1142 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue today and Saturday with a risk of cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall, ponding of water on roads, as well as a risk of flash flooding below recent burn scars. - Smoke from the Frijoles Fire will continue to impact air quality in the vicinity of the fire this week. - Moderate-to-high heat risk will impact much of central and eastern New Mexico this weekend through the middle of next week with record and near-record high temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 143 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 The monsoon high has built northward a bit and become a bit more concentric with less of a west-to-east elongation. This will keep light winds aloft over NM, creating sluggish steering flows while 500 mb heights of 597-598 decameters correspond to above normal, and potentially record-breaking temperatures. This will make it difficult for slow-moving storms to propagate off of the terrain, and convective initiation in lower elevations will be largely dependent on mesoscale cold pools to catalyze development. However, a few stray updrafts will have enough instability to work with to generate isolated storms, even in the eastern plains through the evening. Storms are modeled to dissipate through the evening with minimal, if any, shower activity surviving beyond midnight. On Saturday, the upper high shifts ever so slightly to the northeast, centering near the NM-CO border with heights reaching 596-598 decameters. Slightly drier air will wrap into NM, and this will keep the heat going while storm coverage reduces and confines itself toward the western and northern high terrain. Any storms over the northern high terrain would likely become less efficient rainfall producers due to the lower PWATs (0.6 to 0.7 inch). Temperature-wise, lots of 90's and low 100's will be prevalent, especially over the lower elevation valleys and plains. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 143 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 The upper high will then settle slightly southward into Sunday with similar height and wind fields. Deterministic QPF again focuses convective initiation over the western and northern mountains Sunday afternoon with minimal storms elsewhere. A shortwave trough is modeled on the northern periphery of the high in CO, and this could ignite a few storms that sag into northern NM, but this feature will likely become more of a player into Monday, as it moves into the plains and sends a backdoor front into northeastern NM. Subtle dewpoint rises and more of an upslope surface wind component will lead to better convective initiation on the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristos Monday. Subsequent outflow will then potentially spread additional storms farther south and west with minimal changes to the storm coverage elsewhere through Monday evening. By Tuesday, the GFS continues to keep the northeast favored for storms, although surface winds will have veered and/or lost much of their upslope component by then. The long range ensembles also latch on to the northeast and secondarily the western mountains for Tuesday with the high having settled just south of I-40. The consensus is for the high to nudge slightly southwestward into Wednesday, bringing more of a northwesterly wind component aloft to the northeastern corner of NM. This will open the door to another moist front that could reintroduce storms to northeastern and east central zones through Wednesday evening. Meanwhile, PWATs of 0.6 to 0.8 inch will keep storms going over other western and northern high terrain areas, but with spotty rainfall footprints. Overall heights are shown to start reducing by 1 to 3 decameters Wednesday, but temperatures will still be above average by 5 to 10 degrees in most locales. For Thursday, the high is modeled to remain centered over southwestern NM with only slight reductions in heights (594-596 decameters at 500 mb). Storm coverage will depend on recycling of previous day's moisture, but for now PWATs are shown to range from 0.7 to 1.1 inch with the eastern plains observing higher values. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will favor the northern and western mountains Saturday afternoon and evening, with isolated activity elsewhere. A few of the stronger cells will be capable of producing localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts up to 45 KT. Storm motion will be slow and variable. Record and near- record high temperatures as much as 13 degrees above 1991-2020 averages will make density altitude an important concern for aviation operations near complex terrain. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 143 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 No widespread, long duration wind concerns are forecast through the next several days as high pressure aloft dominates the weather pattern. The monsoon high will keep winds aloft light, and any gusty wind concerns will mostly emanate from brief-lived thunderstorm outflows. The upper high will remain strong through the forecast period, keeping temperatures hot. The position of this feature will also inhibit the arrival of any new moisture increases, leading to a more subdued coverage of storms, and activity will be mostly focused over the western and northern high terrain each day. The exception will be with occasional increases in storms over northeastern NM next week where weak backdoor frontal intrusions arrive. The hot temperatures and generally more subdued moisture will lead to lower humidity values in the afternoons with minimum RH values of 12 to 20% being more common each day. The overnight and morning humidity recoveries will also be impacted with readings only rising to 40-60% in many zones with bouts of higher recovery in the eastern plains when weak, moist surface boundaries and subsequent storms arrive next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 65 96 65 94 / 20 5 10 5 Dulce........................... 52 91 51 90 / 30 20 30 20 Cuba............................ 59 89 59 88 / 10 20 20 5 Gallup.......................... 58 89 57 90 / 20 30 30 30 El Morro........................ 57 85 56 86 / 20 60 30 40 Grants.......................... 59 89 58 89 / 10 50 20 30 Quemado......................... 60 86 58 87 / 10 60 10 40 Magdalena....................... 64 88 63 89 / 10 30 10 20 Datil........................... 60 84 58 85 / 10 50 10 30 Reserve......................... 59 92 57 93 / 5 40 10 20 Glenwood........................ 65 97 63 98 / 10 20 20 10 Chama........................... 54 85 53 83 / 20 20 20 30 Los Alamos...................... 64 89 63 87 / 5 20 20 40 Pecos........................... 59 89 59 89 / 5 10 20 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 58 86 57 85 / 5 20 20 50 Red River....................... 50 77 49 76 / 5 30 20 40 Angel Fire...................... 43 83 43 82 / 0 30 20 30 Taos............................ 57 90 57 89 / 5 20 20 40 Mora............................ 56 87 55 87 / 5 20 20 20 Espanola........................ 63 96 63 94 / 5 10 20 30 Santa Fe........................ 63 90 63 89 / 5 10 20 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 61 93 61 92 / 5 10 20 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 69 94 69 96 / 0 10 5 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 68 95 68 96 / 5 10 5 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 66 98 66 98 / 5 10 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 69 97 69 96 / 5 10 10 0 Belen........................... 66 98 65 98 / 5 20 10 0 Bernalillo...................... 68 97 68 98 / 5 10 10 0 Bosque Farms.................... 65 97 64 98 / 5 10 5 0 Corrales........................ 68 98 68 98 / 5 10 10 0 Los Lunas....................... 66 97 65 98 / 5 10 10 0 Placitas........................ 67 93 66 94 / 0 10 10 0 Rio Rancho...................... 68 97 68 97 / 5 10 10 0 Socorro......................... 70 98 69 100 / 10 20 10 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 89 62 90 / 0 10 10 0 Tijeras......................... 64 91 63 91 / 0 10 5 0 Edgewood........................ 60 92 59 92 / 0 20 20 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 57 93 57 94 / 0 20 20 0 Clines Corners.................. 61 89 61 90 / 0 20 20 0 Mountainair..................... 61 91 60 92 / 5 10 10 0 Gran Quivira.................... 61 90 61 91 / 5 10 10 0 Carrizozo....................... 67 93 66 94 / 5 10 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 61 85 59 87 / 5 20 10 5 Capulin......................... 59 90 59 89 / 5 10 10 30 Raton........................... 58 93 57 92 / 5 10 10 40 Springer........................ 58 96 58 95 / 5 10 20 20 Las Vegas....................... 58 90 58 91 / 0 10 20 10 Clayton......................... 67 99 67 98 / 5 10 10 10 Roy............................. 62 94 63 94 / 0 10 10 10 Conchas......................... 68 102 69 102 / 0 20 10 0 Santa Rosa...................... 65 98 66 98 / 0 20 20 0 Tucumcari....................... 68 101 70 102 / 0 20 20 0 Clovis.......................... 70 100 69 101 / 10 20 20 0 Portales........................ 70 101 70 101 / 20 20 20 0 Fort Sumner..................... 68 101 69 101 / 5 20 20 0 Roswell......................... 71 101 70 102 / 5 10 10 0 Picacho......................... 66 96 65 97 / 5 10 10 0 Elk............................. 62 93 62 94 / 0 10 10 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...44