967 FXUS61 KOKX 220603 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 203 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Aviation for the 06z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unsettled conditions persist this weekend, with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms at times. 2) Drying out early next week, with temperatures remaining slightly below normal. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Broad troughing remains across Great Lakes and Northeast, with a nearly stalled boundary and area of low pressure meandering just offshore. The center of the nearby low pressure is very evident on GOES-19 visible satellite imagery this afternoon, spinning about 90 mi SSE of Montauk in the western Atlantic. Cloud canopy is swirling around it, with overcast skies persisting across Long Island and much of S CT today, but much brighter skies from NYC on north and west. The center should continue meandering slowly eastward, bringing an end to and remaining light rain or drizzle by early this evening, before another wave approaches from the southwest on Saturday. A few morning showers could clip some coastal locations, before a lull then develops most of Saturday. Broad forcing for ascent from the trough, along with the shortwave energy moving through should help to instigate additional showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms by late Saturday evening. Instability looks relatively limited, but moisture will be abundant, with PWATs along the coast increasing toward 2 inches. WPC has maintained a marginal risk of excessive rainfall across the entire local area, and given the recent rains, it won't take much to renew any nuisance flooding in the urbanized and poor drainage areas. The threat for flash flooding will likely be contingent on training of heavier cells, which is a possibility overnight into Sunday morning. Peak hourly rainfall rates could approach an inch to an inch and a half, with localized totals up to a few inches. Coverage and severity of this activity appears lower in general than Thursday's event however, and opted not to hoist a Flood Watch at this point. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Cyclonic flow with afternoon stratocu likely persists through early next week as the trough axis remains across the Northeast. The trough gradually exits into midweek as the flow aloft transitions to more quasi zonal. Absent any isolated diurnal showers, conditions largely remain dry as high pressure builds in and winds become westerly. Temperatures are forecast to remain slightly below normal, with daytime highs in the 70s to around 80. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low pressure drifts away from the terminals overnight. Another wave of low pressure slowly approaches from the south late today into Saturday night. Mainly VFR through the overnight, excluding KGON where MVFR cigs likely move in late in the overnight. MVFR cigs may also get into other eastern terminals like KISP and KBDR briefly overnight. Prevailing MVFR cigs are then expected to move in towards 14-15z this morning, and could be borderline VFR/MVFR through late Saturday afternoon, especially for NYC terminals and north and west. Latest trends have KSWF remaining VFR through today. PROB30 now for -RA during this afternoon for most terminals, with the exception being for northern terminals. MVFR ceilings become more widespread after 00z Sunday, along with some IFR ceilings possible, especially closer to 06z Sunday. Light winds overnight and either vrb or NE in direction. E/SE winds under 10kt for Saturday. The winds will be light, mainly at or under 5 kt into Saturday evening. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... AMD possible with borderline VFR/MVFR cigs today. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Saturday night: Showers and potential thunderstorms late. MVFR to IFR. Sunday: A chance of showers, especially north of the city terminals. Possible thunderstorms. Chance of MVFR or lower at times. Monday through Wednesday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Expect sub-SCA conditions to persist through early next week as a weak pressure gradient settles in over the local waters. Rip Currents: The rip current risk remains moderate for both Saturday and Sunday with a prevailing SE swell. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DR AVIATION...JE MARINE...DR  927 FXUS64 KSJT 220602 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 102 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Big Country, Heartland and Concho Valley areas this afternoon. - There is a low (15%-20%) chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms, mainly across the Big Country, this afternoon and evening. - Hot and mainly dry weather will persist through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 102 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The main concern today will continue to be the heat affecting the area, with highs once again expected to range from around 100 degrees in our southwestern counties to potentially near 110 degrees in our Big Country counties north of I-20. So, the Heat Advisory will continue for the same area as yesterday for the Big Country, Heartland, and most of the Concho Valley. In addition to the heat, there is a low (15%-20%) chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms for the Big Country, and areas mainly east of a Brady to Junction line. Although we aren't expecting widespread coverage or severe weather, temperature/dewpoint spreads will be large (40+ degrees Fahrenheit) which could lead to strong wind gusts over 50 mph should any storms form. Any storms that do form will end by midnight. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Next week will be hot and generally dry for our area with daily highs 8-12 degrees above normal. The strong upper level high will be over the New Mexico/Texas border Sunday-Tuesday, and then slowly migrate west toward the New Mexico/Arizona border by Thursday- Friday. The hottest days look to be Sunday through Tuesday, with the high in closer proximity and the 850mb thermal ridge the strongest. Expect highs to be 104-107 across the Concho Valley and 105-110 in the Big Country. Our southern counties will have highs mostly 100- 103 degrees. Anticipate the need for additional Heat Advisories for our northern and central counties, and some locations north of I-20 may approach Extreme Heat Warning criteria. By Thursday and Friday, expect highs to be in the upper 90s/around 100 in our southern counties, and 100-105 degrees farther north across the rest of our area. With weak northerly flow aloft around the eastern side of the aforementioned high in the midweek time frame, some of the medium range models hint at a possibility for a few showers and thunderstorms to develop along a surface trough as it moves south into our area Wednesday night and Thursday. The possibility looks remote at this time, however. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 102 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Mainly VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Light south or variable winds will persist for the most part. KABI could experience a temporary wind shift to the east/northeast late Saturday night due to convection moving in from the north. Although there is a chance for some TSRA to affect KABI this afternoon and evening, confidence is not high enough yet to insert a mention at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 106 81 106 81 / 0 20 0 0 San Angelo 104 76 104 76 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 102 74 102 74 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 105 76 105 77 / 0 10 0 0 Sweetwater 106 79 107 79 / 0 20 0 0 Ozona 99 73 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 102 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Jones- McCulloch-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor- Throckmorton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...20  929 FXUS65 KVEF 220602 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1102 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Above normal temperatures will continue into next week. * Thunderstorm chances continue today but will decrease over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...through Thursday. Today's high temperatures will be a few degrees "cooler" than temperatures were yesterday afternoon. However, an increase in moisture will make today's temperatures just as uncomfortable. Temperatures will increase a degree or two over the weekend as moisture decreases across the region. As a result, Major HeatRisk (Level 3 of 4) will stick around through Sunday for the Las Vegas Valley, Death Valley, Colorado River Valley, and lower elevations of Mohave County. Next week, temperatures will continue to run around 2 to 4 degrees above normal, with afternoon temperatures topping out in the normal-to-slightly-above-normal range and overnight low temperatures running around 4 to 8 degrees warmer than normal. Over the past 24-hours, moisture has increased across our forecast area, with 1-inch PWats pushing into Lincoln County and southeastern Inyo County. Locally, here in Las Vegas, PWats went from 0.88 inches at 18Z yesterday to 1.19 inches on today's 18Z sounding. This moisture will help to fuel isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms across southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona, and southeastern California. As is typical of the monsoon, storms will favor areas of higher terrain for development and will tend to dissipate as they move off the terrain. Erratic outflow winds, lightning, and localized moderate-to-heavy rain will be possible with any storms that develop. Flash flooding will be a concern with any storms that begin training or in areas where there is continuous redevelopment over the terrain. Storm coverage will decrease each day over the weekend as moisture decreases. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package... Expect south-southeasterly winds around 8kts through the night before weakening and becoming light and variable by the early morning. Southerly winds arrive in the late morning with breezier south winds arrive in the mid afternoon and stay through the evening. Gusts cut off after sunset as winds turn southwesterly and reduce. Temperatures look to break 100 degrees shortly after 17z, peak at 00z, and cool below 100 shortly before 04z. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds are reducing for all but KDAG which stays gusty until the late night. Wind look to stay light through the night and much of the morning. Gustier winds arrive in the afternoon with peak gusts above 20kts possible. Passing showers will affect the valley into the afternoon but exit in the late afternoon. Gusts at KDAG arrive slightly later in the early evening and look to last into the late night while the rest of the TAF sites see gusts cut off and winds lighten. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...Murdock For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  974 FXUS64 KJAN 220603 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 103 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous heat stress across at western portions of the forecast area again Saturday. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 919 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Rest of tonight... Frontal zone is draped just north of Interstate 20, with expectations that this will continue to dive southward into the overnight hours. Synoptic pattern remains with deep broad troughing and stout ridge (597-600DM at 500mb) over the Four Corners. Drier air is situated north of the frontal zone, with deeper moisture to the south. Earlier rain and active storm period has shifted southward, so rest of the evening should remain much quieter. There will remain some cloud cover overnight for areas , but clearing to the north. Lows will remain seasonably warm (70-74F). Updates are out. /DC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Through Saturday: A frontal boundary will sag slowly southward toward the coast and help to focus scattered diurnally driven storms for the remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening over the southern half of the area. Given how hot and unstable the boundary layer conditions are, steep low level lapse rates are supporting microburst winds (e.g., 58 mph gust at TVR just now), and have continued to message for a slight severe weather risk this afternoon/evening. This threat may shift into northwest portions of the area Saturday afternoon as stronger mid level flow potentially brings organized convection, so stay tuned for additional severe weather messaging. Of course the dangerous heat threat continues as well and have issued an additional heat advisory for Saturday. The heat will gradually become more focused over southwest portions of the area, and have adjusted our messaging to reflect this. Sunday through next week: Global model guidance indicate that a northwest flow pattern will evolve and persist through the remainder of the forecast. A NW-SE oriented thermal gradient will support the greatest heat stress over southwest portions of the forecast area, but this doesn't appear it will be more than a limited to elevated dangerous heat situation. This pattern would continue to support an occasional MCS threat, but timing details are very uncertain, and overall rain chances are not great in the mean. Unfortunately for those needing rainfall, there are no strong signals for significant rainfall at this point aside from a gradual uptick in rain chances as we go later into next week. All global model ensembles point to dry anomalies. Given the continued vegetative stress, the forecast area will become more vulnerable to fire danger should wind/RH thresholds be met. As of now the weather pattern isn't supporting this, but all fire related interests should monitor closely. /EC/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions wl prevail through at least 22Z when another round of TSRA wl start affecting the northern TAF sites and move in vcty of the cntrl TAF sites by the end of the TAF period. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 74 99 74 94 / 10 10 10 40 Meridian 73 98 73 94 / 10 10 0 40 Vicksburg 73 98 74 93 / 10 10 10 40 Hattiesburg 74 99 74 97 / 0 10 10 30 Natchez 75 99 75 96 / 0 10 10 20 Greenville 73 98 74 93 / 20 10 30 60 Greenwood 72 97 72 92 / 10 10 20 50 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>064- 072. LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026. AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. && $$ DC/EC/22  031 FXUS64 KSHV 220605 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 105 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 105 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Oppressive heat will continue through the forecast period, with triple digit temperatures common each day across much of the region through at least midweek next week. Resultant heat indices will range from 105-110 degrees each day. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible though this afternoon over much of the region, and could linger into the overnight hours across portions of Southwest Arkansas and North Louisiana, which may provide some brief relief to the heat. Given the intense heat/instability, isolated strong to severe storms will be possible capable of producing damaging downburst winds. - Aside from the potential for showers and thunderstorms to possibly graze the eastern sections of Southern Arkansas and Eastern Louisiana Monday morning, mostly dry conditions are expected over much of the area through at least midweek, further aggravating deteriorating drought conditions already in place. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 105 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The early morning sfc analysis indicates that the weak sfc trough that focused compressional warming, extreme heat indices at and above 110 degrees over much of Lower E TX/N LA, as well as scattered severe convection earlier Friday afternoon has being convectively reinforced S into the Nrn Gulf, with sfc winds already beginning to return from the S across SW LA and adjacent SE TX. Winds should eventually transition back out of the WSW elsewhere across the region through the mid-morning hours, eventually becoming more VRB through the day. The short term prog consensus suggest that convection Saturday afternoon should be more isolated across the area, with greater focus primarily tied to another weak sfc front that will shift S into NE OK/Nrn AR this afternoon, which will aid in enhanced forcing as another shortwave trough shifts SE into the Ozarks around the Ern periphery of the upper ridge centered over the Cntrl and Srn Rockies. Outflows from the convection to our N may help initiate isolated to widely scattered convection across SE OK/SW AR late this afternoon/evening as the remnants of this weakness aloft traverses S into the region before eventually weakening. The oppressive heat will continue to remain the primary story though as widespread triple digit temps will return, with temps similar if not hotter than what was observed Friday afternoon. Should see a little better mixing of dewpoints than what occurred Friday, with heat indices again ranging from 105-110 degrees. Thus, have maintained the Heat Advisory areawide through early this evening, although this will likely be extended again through Sunday. Additional isolated convection redevelopment may occur overnight tonight mainly over SW AR/N LA before diminishing Sunday morning, although elevated cigs may linger through at least a portion of the day over Srn AR/N LA which may help to taper back max temps slightly. However, widespread triple digit temps are again expected areawide, with attendant heat indices again ranging from 105-110 degrees. The center of the upper ridge remains progged to expand farther E across the Srn Plains into the Lower MS Valley Sunday, resulting in a mostly dry forecast, although the models continue to focus on a shortwave perturbation that will round the ridge over the Ozarks into Nrn AR/Mid-South region Sunday night, and ride SE towards the Gulf Coast Monday morning. A portion of this convection may affect the far Ern zones of SCntrl AR/NE LA late Sunday night/Monday morning, with convective debris likely limiting daytime heating to some extent such that these areas should remain below 100 degrees. Unfortunately, this "cooling" for these areas will be short- lived, as the ridge aloft expands E once again Tuesday, reinforcing the triple digit heat and dry conditions areawide through midweek. However, the ridge is progged to begin retrograding back W into the Desert SW Wednesday through the remainder of the work week, resulting in a return to a more NWrly flow regime over the area, which would allow for additional weaknesses in the NW flow aloft to shift SE and potentially focus isolated to scattered convection Wednesday through Friday afternoons/evenings over portions of the region. The resultant cloud cover and daily convection may also help to scale back afternoon temps a tad as well, closer to if not a touch below the century mark. 15 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 105 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 For the 22/06Z TAF period, VCTS conditions will be possible this afternoon from 22/18Z through 23/04Z across most terminal sites in response to a lingering frontal boundary across the region. Otherwise, VFR conditions to prevail outside of any convection with light and variable winds expected through the period except for much higher gusts in and around the stronger convection. /05/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 105 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening over portions of the region for the potential of damaging downburst winds. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 104 79 103 80 / 20 10 10 10 MLU 104 75 101 77 / 20 20 10 10 DEQ 103 72 101 74 / 20 20 10 0 TXK 103 75 102 77 / 20 20 10 10 ELD 104 74 100 74 / 20 20 10 10 TYR 105 80 105 81 / 20 10 10 0 GGG 106 78 105 80 / 20 10 10 0 LFK 103 77 103 77 / 20 10 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...19  147 FXUS61 KBGM 220608 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 208 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes made to the forecast at this time. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A broad upper level low moving southeastward into the area tonight into Sunday is expected to lead to unsettled weather into early next week. 2) High pressure builds in for a brief lull in wet weather Wednesday, then additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to return Thursday into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A broad upper trough will be setting up across the eastern U.S. this weekend with an upper low dropping southeastward out of Canada and becoming a closed low over the Great Lakes on Sunday. A surface low is expected to develop over the eastern Great Lakes region as well Saturday night into Sunday. These features are expected to be the main drivers of our weather into early next week. There is also a surface low developing near the mid- Atlantic coast today that will be sliding northeastward but most of the moisture from this is expected to pass by off to our south and east. Clouds will increase from south to north and there can be some isolated showers this afternoon and evening, but shower chances will increase later tonight into Sunday as an embedded upper shortwave rotates into the area and the upper trough becomes more neutral to slightly negatively tilted as it shifts east. Chances for thunder look to be pretty low this afternoon and evening with modest instability (500 to locally 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE), but little in the way of MLCAPE and bulk shear. Mid- level lapse rates are poor as well, so thunder was reduced to just a slight chance during this time. The surface low over the eastern Great Lakes is expected to lift north-northeast, passing just north and west of the CWA Sunday. As it shifts north toward the Ontario/Quebec border, it will drag a surface cold front across the region Sunday (timing of the frontal boundary is a bit uncertain). The chance for thunder is a little better on Sunday as 0-6km shear noticeably increases to 35-50 knots across the CWA and mid-level lapse rates are a bit higher around 6- 6.5 C/km as well. MUCAPE still looks to average 500-1000 J/kg, but the NAM is a little more bullish east of I-81. In the wake of the frontal passage, model guidance suggests there can be a brief break in shower activity as a dry slot develops Sunday evening. By Monday, the 500mb closed low moves overhead. This combined with with cooler air aloft moving over the Great Lakes with 850mb temps falling to +6C to +10C and a west to northwest flow in place, additional showers are expected to develop. As the upper low lifts NE Tuesday, there could be a few lingering showers downwind of Lake Ontario near and north of the NYS Thruway before drier conditions return. Near to slightly below average temperatures are expected this weekend before turning noticeably cooler Monday with the upper low overhead with highs in the 60s and low 70s. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure briefly builds in Tuesday night into Wednesday with dry conditions. Then Thursday into Friday, model guidance suggests a similar pattern to this weekend setting back up with a potential low moving up from the south and another upper trough pushing in from the west that would bring the chance for additional showers and thunderstorms. As of now these features appear to be more progressive and look to move out of the region by next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions under mainly clear skies expected this morning and into the afternoon hours across most of the the area. The exception will be ELM where fog is beginning to form as of 06z, and should be prevailing IFR/LIFR after 08/09z this morning. The IFR/LIFR fog is then forecast to lingering into the mid morning hours, before lifting between 13-14z, with VFR conditions after that into the afternoon hours. There is a slight chance for a stray shower or t'storm INVOF AVP by late afternoon or early evening, but confidence and coverage was too low to include in the TAF a this time. Otherwise, lowering cloud bases and CIGs move in from the south later this evening, with MVFR conditions forecast to reach AVP after 23/02z, ELM 23/03z and BGM 23/04z. The MVFR and even IFR CIGs are forecast to continue spreading north over much of the forecast area after this TAF period early Sunday morning. There will also be increasing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms heading into tonight and Sunday morning as a frontal boundary approaches. Expected light east-southeast winds early this morning, less than 5 kts. The winds turn south-southeast and increase between 6-15 kts late morning into this afternoon and evening. Outlook... Late Tonight into Sunday...Showers and potential thunderstorms with associated restrictions. Monday...Scattered showers at the Central NY terminals with associated restrictions possible. Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DK AVIATION...AJG/MJM  153 FXUS62 KRAH 220608 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 208 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Drier, cooler, less humidity Sunday into Tuesday night. * Shower and storm chances return with higher humidity late next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 208 AM Saturday... 1) Lingering showers and storms are possible again today, with a possible low-end severe risk over the northwest Piedmont. 2) Drier weather, along with lower relative humidities and cooler temperatures, is expected Sunday into mid-week. PM shower and storm chances return mid to late next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 208 AM Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Lingering showers and storms are possible again today, with a possible low-end severe risk over the northwest Piedmont. Central NC continues to be in that moist and unstable pattern today. An upper-level trough will remain to our west through tonight as a shortwave dives southeastward into the Lower Great Lakes. Tied to that shortwave trough will be a surface cold front slated to move through portions of central NC by early Sunday morning. A surface front persists across our southern and eastern zones, and will be a continued focus for off and on isolated, to at times scattered, showers and storms this morning and afternoon to the early evening hours. However, confidence on overall coverage is not particularly high. Across the west, the approaching shortwave this evening, ahead of the cold front, will favor some isolated/scattered storm activity across the northwest Piedmont, perhaps holding together before dissipating east of the Triangle late tonight. Several HREF members indicate this potential in the 7pm to 1am time frame, though coverage may be quite isolated with timing being near sunset and slightly drier air working in from the west. If any storms can materialize, there is adequate deep shear of 30-35 kt with 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE. SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk of severe storms, just west of the Triad. We would not be surprised if that risk area is expanded eastward. Damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. KEY MESSAGE 2... Drier weather, along with lower relative humidities and cooler temperatures, is expected Sunday into mid- week. PM shower and storm chances return mid to late next week. A mid/upper level trough will be positioned over the eastern United States Sunday into mid-week. This will mean cooler and drier weather for our region as surface high pressure builds from the Midwest Sunday to the mid-Atlantic states by Wednesday. Cooler and drier air will advect into the region Sunday and Sunday night with highs in the mid to upper 80s Sunday, and lows Sunday night in the 60s. Monday into Wednesday will feature mostly sunny skies with dew points dipping into the 50s both Monday and Tuesday. Some return moisture will raise the dew points back into mostly 60s by Wednesday. Daytime highs should top out in the 83-88 range each day with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s (north-central to SE). A chance of mainly PM showers/storms will return as early as Wednesday (20-30 percent), and more likely Thursday (40-60 percent chance). Highs will return to the upper 80s to lower 90s by late week. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 208 AM Saturday... Areas of low stratus in the LIFR/IFR range are expected to develop and become widespread over the terminals into Saturday morning. There is the potential that fog may develop across some of the terminals. The latest satellite imagery reveals that some mid/high clouds have started to disperse, allowing this potential given light surface winds. Nearly any terminal has the fog potential, but we have the highest confidence at RDU, though did not include visibilities below 1 mile at this point. We will continue to monitor observational trends and adjust as needed. The CAMs continue to show developing showers and isolated storms into early Saturday across the eastern terminals, but opted to leave out any showers given a lack of confidence. Sub-VFR stratus will gradually lift to VFR between 17-20z, as south- southwest winds develop with heating. Isolated storms are possible at RDU, FAY, and RWI in the late afternoon and early evening, but confidence is too low to mention at this time. A better chance of storms is at GSO/INT with an approaching front and shortwave so included a brief restriction in the 23z to 03z time frame. Outlook: There is the potential of sub-VFR stratus or fog early Sun. Otherwise, VFR conditions are mainly expected Sunday through Tuesday before storm chances return by midweek. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kren/Badgett AVIATION...Kren  212 FXUS64 KMRX 220609 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 209 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 203 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - This afternoon and evening, isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected in Northeast Tennessee, Southwest Virginia and the East Tennessee Mountains. - Sunday and Monday will be dry with rain chances returning midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 203 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 In the upper levels, a trough is over the Ohio Valley, extending down to Florida. At the surface, a stationary boundary is over North Georgia. Showers and storms have mostly dissipated for the rest of the night. In the early morning hours, clearing skies will lead to fog development near bodies of water and low-lying areas. Patchy dense fog will be possible in the early morning hours. A cold front will approach the region this afternoon and evening, bringing isolated to scattered showers and storms in Northeast Tennessee, Southwest Virginia and the East Tennessee Mountains. Elsewhere, will be mostly dry but some isolated activity will be possible. Some of the CAMs have come in wetter for today this cycle than last cycle, I think the timing of the cold front is lining up better with max heating. A few strong storms, possibly even severe can't be ruled out. The front will move through this evening bringing cooler temps and lower dew points tonight and tomorrow. Sunday dew points will be in the 60s and highs will be in the 80s (Chattanooga area may hit 90). Sunday and Monday will be dry with high pressure at the surface. The upper level pattern will be about the same with a deep trough on the East Coast and a ridge centered over the Rockies. The NBM has low rain chances Tuesday increasing to 30-40% chances by Wednesday. The trough will be centered over the Ohio Valley again by midweek with at least one shortwave rotating through the pattern Wednesday night or Thursday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 203 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Isolated shower near KTRI is drifting away. Due to the storm's presence, highly uncertain about fog development over the next 6 hours, but maintaining the TAF for persistence. IFR to LIFR conditions possible should fog form. Post 13z, return to VFR area wide, with low chance for scattered TS in primarily northeastern areas this evening, PROB30 at KTRI accounts for most likely window. Otherwise light winds through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 68 91 65 / 0 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 66 86 62 / 10 20 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 90 64 87 61 / 10 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 63 81 57 / 20 30 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...McD AVIATION...Wellington  338 FXUS65 KPUB 220610 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1210 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Monsoon moisture will continue through late week then some drying. - Not much temperature change through the week. A bit cooler mid week and a bit of warming next weekend. - Storms today may be more towards late afternoon/evening. Can't rule out flash flooding at Aspen Acres but no strong signals to go with. One or two strong storms possible. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1204 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Early this morning quite a few showers were still ongoing across mainly the plains, with a few thunderstorms over the far eastern plains. This activity will linger into the early morning hours and should decrease around 2-3 am. Activity is likely being driven by the low level jet per latest guidance. Thunderstorms may be a bit later on developing later today, with the best chance of storms occurring over the Pikes Peak region, with the activity moving slowly east during the evening hours. The far southeast sections of the fcst area will likely remain dry today and this evening. HPC has the mtns and I-25 corridor region in marginal risk for excessive rainfall. A few of the storms late this afternoon and evening may be on the strong side, especially north of US50. Temperatures today over the plains will likely be a few degrees cooler today than yesterday. The valley and mountains will likely see similar temperatures today as they say yesterday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 1204 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Sunday will be somewhat similar to todays weather pattern. However storms may form a bit earlier in the day and we may see a bit less coverage over the plains during the evening hours. With less clouds over the plains Sunday, temps will likely be 2 to 3F warmer than today. The mtns and I-25 corridor region are once again in marginal risk for excessive rainfall. From Monday into late week, the monsoon pattern will continue over the region, and we will see scattered to likely storms over the mtns and isolated to scattered over the plains. Temps will cool a bit by mid week, but temps will slowly climb towards next weekend. The best day for the potential for some locally heavier rain (and potential flash flooding) may be mid week as a surface boundary will affect the pains/S mtns. A drier pattern is indicted by late week next weekend over the region as a much more zonal pattern develops, and this pattern will cut off the monsoon flow. 100 degree readings will be possible once again over the plains by next weekend, and fire weather concerns may increase as flow aloft increases somewhat. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1044 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Lingering convection across the eastern plains finally starting to diminish as of 06z, while still affecting KPUB with E-NE surface winds gusting to 30 kts. Otherwise, plan on VFR conditions across the forecast area overnight, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Brought in VCTS for KALS and KCOS starting around 19z-20z tomorrow, with PROB30 for -TSRA and variable gusts 21z-03z. For KPUB, mentioned VCTS starting at 23z with PROB30 for -TSRA and variable gusts 00z-05z. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...HODANISH AVIATION...MOORE  681 FXUS62 KJAX 220614 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 214 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Isolated Strong Storms Possible this Afternoon and Evening. Hazards: Gusty Winds (40-60 mph), localized flooding, & frequent lightning. - Isolated to Widely Scattered Afternoon Thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. Increasing Thunderstorm Coverage Beginning Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Highlights through Tonight: - Potential for strong thunderstorms this afternoon and evening Lingering upper shortwaves ahead of the weakening frontal boundary in central GA will help trigger morning showers and isolated storms moving inland from the Gulf. Convection will then spread east- northeastward through the day in the general southwest flow. Slightly drier air (PWATS 1.6-1.8 in) may advect in from the northeastern Gulf keeping coverage to isolated to widely scattered across NE FL this afternoon. Best chances for storms will be along the sea breeze merger near I-95 and SE GA closer to the diffusing frontal boundary. An isolated strong storm may be possible along boundary mergers producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Convection will shift off the Atlantic coast later this evening. Amplifying mid-upper trough digging down the eastern US will shift the upper "heat dome" ridge away from the region bringing a break from Heat Advisory conditions. Highs today will be in the low-mid 90s with max heat indices in the 100-106 F range. Overnight lows will be in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period (Sunday and Monday): - Limited thunderstorm activity for SE GA Sunday and all areas Sunday - Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm possible across NE FL and north-central FL on Sunday. - Hotter and drier; heat index in the 100-105 range each day. The leftover stalled frontal zone will remain stretched across southeast GA as it decays on Sunday. Though the driest airmass will remain to the north, precipitable water will fall to around 1.5" or lower across southeast GA while HiRes ensemble guidance sends a moist tongue of PWAT > 2" across northeast and north-central FL through the afternoon hours amid a south-southwesterly steering flow. This should encourage scattered thunderstorm development on the progressive Gulf breeze during the afternoon hours. PoPs were kept at 30-40% range for now but that may need to be increased, particularly along the St Johns River corridor and points east where the late day sea breeze collision is likely. There will be an upper shortwave gliding across the boundary but timing will be critical in whether it will support ascent or hinder convection with wake subsidence. If it lines up timing with supporting ascent the potential for stronger or possibly severe isolated storms will increase. Main concerns will be downburst or gusty microburst winds up to 60 mph. Enough storm motion, around 10 mph should minimize flooding risk. For Monday, the local airmass will be on the dry side to start but there are signals that moisture will be advected west-to-east and may bring sufficiently moist air into southeast GA by the late afternoon, though confidence is low. With that uncertainty and possible lingering dry air, thunderstorm chances are in the "isolated to widely scattered" coverage range (15-25%) for Monday afternoon. One consideration will be the potential for high downdraft energy both Sunday and Monday with the infiltration of dry layers aloft. As drier air pushes in this weekend, it will help temper heat index readings as dry aloft helps mix out and lower surfacehumidity levels. While ambient air temperature highs will push up toward the mid/upper 90s each day, expect heat index to be in the 100-105 degree territory. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Main Highlights This Period (Tuesday through Friday): - Daily Thunderstorm Chances Returns on Tuesday Deeper moisture returns by Tuesday as broad upper troughing remains established across the eastern US. Several mid level shortwaves will be directed toward the southeast from Tuesday onward. With little migration in the low-level ridge axis, southwesterly flow, a dominant Gulf breeze, and pinned Atlantic sea breeze will be predominant through the work week. This will likely lead to late afternoon and evening storms favoring the I-95 corridor each day. If timing holds, a surface front is suggested to nose southward across GA which may result in an increased potential for more robust convection next weekend as it stalls. Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the week with highs generally in the low 90s Tuesday onward with heat index values generally below local heat advisory criteria at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Light rain over SSI will linger over the next hour or so. Due to recent rainfall, patchy fog may develop near VQQ and GNV in the pre- dawn hours. Light winds early this morning become SW at 5-10 kts by 15Z. Another round of showers and storms will move in the vicinity of the TAF sites from southwest to northeast. Convection may pass near GNV beginning around 15Z. Have PROB30s in for potential thunderstorms impacting the TAF sites between 19-24Z. Confidence isn't high enough to put as prevailing or TEMPO. && .MARINE... A frontal zone will extend across the Carolinas and into Georgia with a high pressure ridge to the southeast. Rounds of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms can be expected each day. Brief southerly wind surges are expected during the late afternoon and evening hours as the Atlantic sea breeze shifts onshore. But, winds are expected to remain below Small Craft Exercise Caution levels. The cold front will push into the local waters Sunday night into Monday and then lift back northward as a warm front by mid-week. Rip Currents: Offshore winds will prevail throughout the morning hours, along with low surf heights, during the next several days. With the outgoing tide occurring later in the afternoon, the overall risk will be low to low end moderate this weekend as an afternoon seabreeze brings south to southeast winds to the beaches. Surf/breakers will remain 1-2 feet or less. && .FIRE WEATHER... Unsettled weather continues today with showers and storms possible along a stalling front and the sea breeze this afternoon. A few storms will be capable of strong wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. West to southwesterly breezes continue today and for the next several days with the exception of the coastal areas where the afternoon Atlantic sea breeze will shift winds east to east- southeast. A dry northwest flow will bring lower humidity and mostly dry weather to southeast Georgia Sunday with minimum humidity between 30- 40% while scattered to isolated afternoon showers and storms favor northeast FL. Hotter temperatures on Sunday and Monday will increase mixing heights across southeast GA, leading to locally high dispersion each afternoon. && .CLIMATE... Near record high temperatures are possible at some of our designated climate sites during the next few days: Friday, August 21: KJAX: 101/1900 KGNV: 99/1983 KAMG: 100/1980 KCRG: 99/2016 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 94 73 96 72 / 60 20 0 0 SSI 93 75 95 76 / 50 30 10 0 JAX 94 73 94 74 / 40 20 20 0 SGJ 94 75 93 75 / 40 20 20 0 GNV 92 73 93 73 / 30 10 30 0 OCF 92 74 91 73 / 30 20 50 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$  720 FXUS63 KABR 220615 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 115 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly dry conditions will continue through next Wednesday with temperatures around average for this time of year. - There is a 30-60% chance for showers and thunderstorms during the day Sunday into early Sunday evening over central SD, expanding to northeastern SD/west central MN Sunday night while increasing to a 50-70% chance. - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather Sunday night over much of central to northeastern SD. Brief heavy rain, lighting, and strong winds to around 60 mph will be the main concern. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 113 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the 60s with winds out of the north to northeast at generally less than 10 mph. Today will be pretty similar to the last few days with some showers and maybe some weak thunderstorms across central SD after midnight and into Sunday. These storms are expected to continue through the day Sunday, with a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms. This outlook may be upgraded in future forecasts. The main threats look to be hail and wind. The NAM Nest in particular looks to have a bit of a bowing formation to the storms later in the evening which could produce some stronger winds. The environment for those storms will be rather moist. PWAT values are again in the 99th to 99.5th NAEFS percentile and 1.5" over central SD. This could lead to some heavy rainfall during storms. Models are starting to increase MLCAPE with generally 1100-1200 J/kg. Lapse rates have actually come down a little in deterministic models. Looking at Monday, PWAT isn't as impressive but MLCAPE values are between 1200 and 1500 J/kg with lapse rates between 7 and 7.5 C/km. Temperatures throughout the period will remain around average with highs in the 80s. Not too much in the way of smoke today, but there is a narrow band of some increased concentrations over the Missouri River valley. This would just bring a slight haze to the skies, nothing is expected to reach the surface. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the period as a high pressure ridge remains over the area. As the ridge shifts east through Saturday evening, expect increasing high clouds and the potential for showers and thunderstorms in central SD in the 6-12 hours after the current TAF period. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...SRF  785 FXUS61 KPBZ 220616 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 216 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Higher confidence in the timing and scope of thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening results in higher probability of severe weather occurring. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A slight risk exists for damaging wind and large hail threat with storm activity this afternoon and evening. 2) Outside of lingering showers near Lake Erie, dry weather favored through mid next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Outside of a loner, elevated storm in north central OH, the overnight period has seen the pre-frontal convection die off east of the region while the MCS remains farther west in central IL. This results sets up the region to remain in a clearer sky environment that awaits the arrival of the pre-frontal trough (and eventual sfc cold front) to initiate fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms. Hi-res guidance has generally coalesced around the idea of storm initiation between 2pm-4pm over eastern OH with storms spreading east through 8pm along/ahead of the pre-frontal trough before lingering showers and low probability thunderstorms full push east of the region by the early hours Sunday morning ahead of the surface cold front. Clearer skies allowing for maximization of surface heating should push area SBCAPE values towards 1500-2000 J/kg and steepens low-level lapse rates that serves as the main drivers for the hazardous weather threat. Despite weak shear (around 20kts) and marginal dCAPE (600-800 J/kg) that should limit the high-end severe potential, discrete storms that merge into multicellular clusters is enough to create scattered instances of damaging winds and large hail. Severe threats peak between 4pm-8pm before subsiding thereafter as buoyancy wanes and the surface decouples. Convective activity does linger overnight Saturday until the surface cold front completes its passage, at which point brief subsidence/dry advection reduces rain chances. However, transition to cool advection within NW plus residual shortwave movement taps into Lake Erie moisture to create isolated to scattered non-severe convection through the day Sunday that favors northwest PA. KEY MESSAGE 2... Residual cool northwest flow on the backside of the upper trough may induce enough lift in conjunction with warm Lake Erie waters to create light rain showers near/north of I-80 late Sunday into Monday. Otherwise, high pressure and height rises aloft point to a prolonged (relatively speaking, in relation to the previous month) dry period to start next week. High temperature does start below seasonal averages on Monday before rising back near average by mid week. Long range ensembles currently favor Thursday as the next day with showers/thunderstorms as the next upper trough crosses. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Limited early morning fog mainly within river valleys will erode with diurnal heating/mixing after 12z. VFR prevails otherwise until fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening ahead of an advancing pre-frontal trough (1st) and cold front (2nd) combo. The strong storms could drop visibilities to IFR levels while also posing a risk for creating wind gusts to at least 30kts, potentially higher. Lingering shower and low probability thunderstorms eventually clear east by 06z, but cool advection plus residual moisture favors MVFR/IFR stratus development thereafter. Outlook... Widespread MVFR to IFR cigs are favored Sunday morning that improve through the day, but scattered showers and low probability thunderstorms develop by the afternoon due to cool NW flow over warm lake waters. Precipitation chances linger in northwest PA into Monday before high pressure provides areawide VFR dry weather by Tuesday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Frazier AVIATION...Frazier  846 FXUS66 KLOX 220618 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1118 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .SYNOPSIS...21/745 PM. Minimal changes expected through the weekend with above normal temperatures. Patchy night and morning low clouds and fog will be confined to coastal areas. Additional warming is possible during the middle of next week as high pressure builds in from the southeast. && .SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...21/850 PM. ***UPDATE*** Few changes are expected through the weekend, with temperatures above normal by several degrees each day. Combined with warm overnight lows and some monsoonal moisture at mid to upper levels, conditions will continue to feel uncomfortably warm. Breezy winds are expected at times, with northerly Sundowner winds along the Santa Barbara Southwest coast and foothills, and gusty onshore winds over interior sections. Today's highs were between 95 to 105 across the valleys and interior, with 70s to 80s along the coast. The inland coastal areas warmed compared to yesterday, in the 80s to mid 90s. Downtown LA had a daily record high of 96 degrees, previously set in 1891. Tomorrow expect fairly similar highs, with differences of plus or minus a couple of degrees likely. While the hottest areas are not quite widespread enough to warrant a Heat Advisory, some locations (Woodland Hills, for example) will reach the criteria at around 105 degrees. Caution is still advised for those working or recreating outdoors during the daytime. Onshore (Southwest) winds are gusting around 20 to 30 mph over the far interior, including Antelope Valley. Along the SBA southwest coast, gusts are 25 to 35 mph. The peak gusts may increase close to 40 mph over the next few hours before decreasing later this evening. As for the monsoonal moisture flowing over the area from the southeast, the NAM12 shows the tap drying up Saturday afternoon so the shower chances are now below 10 percent and only for the eastern LA County mountains. .LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...21/156 PM. High pressure is expected to build back into California starting next Tuesday while at the same time pressure gradients from the north and east weaken. With high temperatures already on the verge of advisories and warnings through early next week, the next burst of heat Tuesday and beyond has at least a 40-60% chance pushing that over the edge to at least heat advisory levels and possibly into warning level, particularly inland areas. How widespread the heat hazards are will be largely be determined by the pressure gradients. If the gradients trend towards the 75th percentile or higher, which roughly would be around -3mb LAX-DAG and -4mb LAX-BFL, temperatures would on the higher side with numerous excessive heat warnings likely. If gradients have less of an offshore component per the latest GFS then temperatures will still be hot but at least a few degrees cooler. The latter scenario being the most likely outcome. At this time not seeing any big subtropical push next week, though there is minor peak in PW's on Tuesday and early Wednesday at around 1.2". && .AVIATION...22/0427Z. At 0341Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 700 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 2000 feet with a temperature of 30 C. High confidence in VFR TAF for sites: KPRB, KSBA, KVNY, KBUR, KPMD, KWJF. Low to moderate confidence in the coastal TAFs. The best chance of low clouds is along the Central Coast, with LIFR conds expected and a chance of VLIFR at KSMX. Further south there is a 20% chance of low clouds for the Ventura and LA Coastal sites. For all coastal sites, the timing of category changes could be off by +/- 2 hours. KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 06Z TAF. There is a 20% chance of IFR conds between 13Z to 16Z. If CIGs occur, the timing could be off by 2 hours. No significant east wind component is expected. KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF. && .MARINE...21/755 PM. High risk of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions continuing over the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island through Saturday night, lowering to moderate for Sunday and Monday. There is a moderate risk for the nearshore Central Coast waters each afternoon and evening through Saturday, lowering for Sunday and Monday. Elsewhere, the risk for SCA is low, with seasonal winds likely. Chances for SCA conditions will likely increase again including some nearshore waters by Wednesday. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 AM PDT Saturday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon Saturday to 2 AM PDT Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT Sunday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Monday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Ciliberti/MW AVIATION...Ciliberti MARINE...RK/DB SYNOPSIS...MW/Ciliberti weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  079 FXUS61 KALY 220621 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 221 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SPC expanded the Marginal Risk for isolated severe weather (level 1 of 5) on Sunday to now cover most of eastern NY and western New England. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Areas of showers and thunderstorms arrive late tonight and continue into Sunday afternoon. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated severe thunderstorms across much of eastern NY and western New England Sunday afternoon. 2) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue Monday and Tuesday, especially near and north of I-90, with temperatures remaining slightly cooler than normal. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Broad troughing continues developing upstream over the Upper Great Plains into the Great Lakes today while the Northeast remains on the west side of large scale ridging positioned over the western Atlantic. While height falls slowly creep eastward into western NY today, eastern NY and western New England remains under the influence of weak subsidence which will keep us dry. A weak sfc low meandering in New England combined with southwest flow aloft will keep a cirrus canopy over areas along and east of the Hudson while areas to the west enjoy more sunshine. East-southeast winds at the sfc today will also keep temperatures slight cooler than normal in the mid to upper 70s along with increasing humidity. Tonight, our upstream trough over the Great Lakes amplifies and dig into the Ohio Valley as two shortwaves phase together with the parent cyclone taking on a negative tilt. This results in strengthening upper level diffluence over the mid-Atlantic as a warm front lifts northward with a weak sfc low developing along the boundary. Meanwhile, strengthening southwest flow aloft will also allow moisture to advect into the Northeast with PWATs rising over 1.50". Chance for showers and even a slight chance for thunderstorms increases from southwest to northeast 06 - 12 UTC Sunday as the front approaches. Guidance continues to hint that the weak sfc low aids in the development of more organized area of rain/embedded storms. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the latest probabilistic guidance from the HREF continues to show potential for moderate to heavy rain late tonight into Sunday morning with a 50 - 75% chance for over 0.50" of rain 09 - 15 UTC Sun and even a 25-50% chance for over 1" of rain. WPC maintains a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall through 12 UTC Sunday in the mid-Hudson Valley, eastern Catskills and NW CT likely for this potential. After this initial A.M period of rain/storms, we should have a brief break before an occluded front and stronger height falls from the closed parent low over the eastern Great lakes arrive. There remain uncertainties regarding how much instability can develop. While there will be plenty of low- level moisture, morning clouds may struggle to break for sun during the small window before the occluded front arrives Sun P.M. Even still, mid-level dry air and cooler temperatures aloft wrap eastward as the parent cyclone matures, helping to steepen lapse rates with forecast soundings showing "tall- skinny" CAPE developing. Given the high humidity, even limited insolation will contribute to sufficient instability and help generate low- topped convection. While 0-6km shear is rather impressive ranging 40-50kts, 0-3km shear only ranges 20-30kts. Should weak instability keep convection low-topped, storms will not tap into the stronger deep layer shear, decreasing the severe weather potential. SPC expanded the marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated severe weather to now cover much of eastern NY and western New England given persistent forcing ahead ofthe parent cyclone; however, weak instability/shear are listed as reasons will severe weather may be limited. Main concerns are damaging winds from any severe weather with a linear storm mode favored as shear vectors remain parallel to the boundary. KEY MESSAGE 2... The vertically stack closed low and associated cold pool in the eastern Great Lakes slowly advances eastward Monday into Tuesday supporting slightly cooler than normal temperatures and continued moist cyclonic flow aloft. Coverage of showers and even low- topped convection increases Monday afternoon, especially near/north of I-90, as additional shortwaves rotate around the base of the closed low. Given the cool pool aloft, it likely will not take much upscale growth before lightning occurs with even small hail possible from any taller storms. As winds aloft becoming westerly, a weak lake effect signal looks to develop downstream of Lake Ontario, supporting steadier periods of rain directed into the western Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley Monday P.M into Monday night. Unsettled conditions continue into Tuesday with additional diurnally driven showers again mainly near/north of I-90 but shower coverage should be lower than Monday as the parent cyclone slowly exits into New England. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06z Sunday...VFR conditions currently prevail at all sites with the exception of PSF where visibility and ceiling heights have lowered into the LIFR category due to fog formation. Infrared satellite shows high clouds streaming into the region from the south which should completely mitigate fog development at POU and potentially limit the duration of unfavorable flying conditions at PSF. However, as these clouds will take some time to spread into ALB and GFL, it is possible that some fog could also form at these two sites. Fog at ALB would more likely be fairly shallow and not pose a worsening of conditions that forces a category change out of VFR. However, GFL could see a visibility reduction and potentially a developed ceiling into the IFR category. TEMPOs were added accordingly. Once sufficient cloud cover moves over the terminals and/or the sun starts to break through upon sunrise, all sites will see conditions return, if they haven't already, to the VFR category. For the vast majority of the 06z period, VFR conditions will remain in place. However, forecast soundings at POU and PSF indicated the potential for increasing low-level moisture to lead to the development of MVFR ceilings at times this afternoon. TEMPO and prevailing groups were added accordingly. Winds throughout the period will largely prevail out of the southeast at sustained speeds under 10 kt. Outlook... Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...24/31 AVIATION...12  892 FXUS61 KBUF 220620 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 220 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added waterspouts to the forecast beginning this evening. Increasing risk for severe storms today through Sunday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon through Sunday afternoon. 2) Cool, upper level low to bring lake effect rain Sunday afternoon through Tuesday night. Cool Sunday night through Monday night. 3) Showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday with the passage of Upper level trough axis. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Showers and scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon through Sunday afternoon. A deepening area of low pressure, advancing from Michigan this morning to just north of Lakes Erie and Ontario Sunday morning- afternoon will push a warm front across our region today, followed by a cold front late tonight through midday Sunday. Instability will increase to around 500 to 1000 J/KG of MUCAPE late this afternoon and through the evening hours which will support scattered thunderstorms. A modest wind flow through 10K feet could bring a few stronger storms with damaging wind gusts, though the overall warm, moist environment with a 10K warm cloud depth is not the greatest for large hail growth. Combined with peak heating of the day, a few stronger storms will exist across our region (marginal to slight risk level west of the Genesee Valley), before overnight convection and instability begins to wane. Any storm in this increasingly moisture rich environment could bring a locally heavy downpour. Additionally, as increasing EL heights force the convective cloud depth to grow to over 25K feet, combined with a deepening 850 hPa to lake surface temperature gradient, a few waterspouts may form under the approaching upper level low. A shortwave trough within the base of the negatively tilted upper level low early Sunday combined with the occluded front will pass across our region early Sunday. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be likely ahead of the frontal boundary Sunday...these within a typical summer humid airmass. A few stronger storms will be possible, especially along and south of the NYS Thruway along with the potential both damaging wind gusts and hail as lapse rates steepen. PWats around 1.5 inches will allow for a few drenching downpours of rain as well. Expect the rain showers to end from west to east through midday...though attention will quickly turn to a lake effect response. Key Message 2...Cool, upper level low to bring lake effect rain Sunday afternoon through Tuesday night. Cool Sunday night through Monday night. An early taste of fall Sunday night through Monday night as a cool upper level low rotates across our region. Temperatures at 850 hPa will plummet towards +7 to +8C across the eastern Great Lakes. This will generate a lake effect rain response with the cool air flowing over the very warm lakes. Broken bands of lake effect rain will become disorganized through the day Monday with daytime heating and the passage of a trough, but both Sunday night a decent plume of lake effect rain, centered just near and south of Buffalo and Watertown, and Monday night into Tuesday centered ESE of the Lakes is expected. This rain will diminish Monday night off Lake Erie, and Tuesday and Tuesday night off Lake Ontario. In addition to the rain, there will be the potential for waterspouts along lake convergent boundaries with tall EL heights combined with the cool air associated with the upper level low over the warm lakes. Overnight lows will be some 5 to 8 degrees below normal Sunday night and Monday night, while high temperatures Monday will be some 10 to 15 degrees below late August normals. Key Message 3...Showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday with the passage of Upper level trough axis. A surface trough, combined with an axis of an upper level low will pass across the eastern Great Lakes region Monday. Instability is not too impressive, generally under 300 J/KG of MUCAPE, but increasing low level lapse rates of 6.5 to 7.0 C/km will aid in the generation of more widespread shower activity through the late morning and early afternoon hours. Behind the initial cold front PWATs will not be as great, generally around an inch which will keep any heavier downpours limited, but the increasing lapse rates and lowering wet bulb zero heights could bring small hail within any stronger convective cell Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... For the 06Z TAFs VFR flight conditions are found, and aside from limited valley fog in the Southern Tier, these conditions will persist for the next 12 to 18 hours. A warm front extending eastward across the TAF region will also usher in deeper instability and moisture that will bring showers and scattered thunderstorms to the TAF region by late this afternoon. The greatest threat for storms along with localized gusty winds will be WNY. Then as activity pushes eastward through the evening and overnight waning instability will begin to limit the thunder threat. Isolated showers will likely remain through the balance of Saturday night. Outlook... Sunday through Monday...Periodic showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms with associated MVFR/IFR...with mainly VFR expected outside of any precipitation. Monday night through Tuesday night...Lake effect rain, mainly east and southeast of the Lakes with associated restrictions diminishing off Lake Erie Monday night and Tuesday and off Lake Ontario Tuesday and Tuesday night...otherwise mainly VFR. Wednesday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Behind a departing area of surface high pressure, a modest southeasterly to southerly flow will continue through the day today. A deepening area of low pressure passing just north of the Lakes will push first a warm front (today) and later a cold front (Sunday) across the lakes...with showers and a few thunderstorms along each frontal boundary. Behind the cold front Sunday, an upper level low will bring an early taste of autumn with a brisk west wind developing within a decently strong pressure gradient and moderate instability over the Lakes. While initial southerly flow Sunday may bring small craft conditions to the lakes Sunday, the southwest flow under the upper level low Sunday night through Monday night...and then westerly flow Tuesday will likely continue the choppy waters on the Lakes with SCA likely. In addition to the brisk winds, there will be the potential for waterspouts with tall EL heights combined with the cool air associated with cyclonic flow around the upper level low over the warm lakes. Initial waterspout development will be as early as tonight over Lake Erie...and later tonight over Lake Ontario. This threat will continue through at least Monday night. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thomas AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...Thomas  884 FXUS63 KIWX 220619 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 219 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - 30-60% chances for scattered rain and storms arrive tonight through Saturday. An isolated strong storm capable of gusty winds and brief heavy rain is possible west of US-31 late this evening and east of I-69 Saturday afternoon. - Dangerous swimming conditions expected for southeast Lake Michigan beaches on Saturday and Sunday with High Swim risks both days. Northwest winds will gust to 30 mph with waves of 3 to 5 feet. - Dry weather returns Sunday and Monday with below normal temperatures and low humidity. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 132 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 An upper level low over the Hudson Bay will be the focus of the forecast for the next 36-48 hours, as the attendant cold front with this system sweeps through our area and brings periodic chances for rain and storms tonight through early Sunday. Mainly dry conditions are expected to continue this afternoon, however, isolated showers and storms remain possible through sunset east of I-69 with a leading 500 mb shortwave associated with the upper level low. Scattered cumulus development is already noted on visible satellite imagery this afternoon. Isolated showers are also likely in the vicinity of Lake Michigan this afternoon where a dying convection complex from upstream is moving in. Into this evening, with the cold front still back in Wisconsin and the upper level trough expected to begin to dig into the Great Lakes, we will have to watch what additional development there is upstream over southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. CAMs are in fairly good agreement in a cluster of storms developing this evening to our northwest and diving southeast after sunset. Given that shear and instability will wane after sunset, these storms should be diminishing by the time they reach northwest and north central Indiana tonight. Can't rule out an isolated gusty storm or two but not expecting much if any severe threat. Locations along and east of I-69 will remain dry until daybreak Saturday. Showers gradually become more numerous as the front pushes eastward and as the upper level trough amplifies during the morning and early afternoon hours on Saturday. Have maintained PoPs between 30-60% on Saturday, with the highest chances in northwest Ohio. With the front expected to come through between the morning and early afternoon hours, this is not the most favorable diurnal timeframe for storms. Again, can't rule out an isolated strong storm or two (especially in northwest Ohio) as a corridor of up to 1500 MLCAPE could develop east of I-69, but the likelihood of organized severe weather tomorrow is low given marginal shear of 20-30 kts and poor low/mid level lapse rates. With a tightening pressure gradient and strong cyclonic flow on the backside of the departing front on Saturday evening, I wouldn't be surprised if widely scattered lake effect showers develop downwind of Lake Michigan for several hours late Saturday into early Sunday. Winds will be breezy out of the northwest through the remainder of the weekend with northwest winds gusting as high as 25 to 30 mph. The aforementioned frontal passage is expected to stir up southern Lake Michigan, generating large waves and dangerous currents throughout the weekend. Northwest, onshore flow with northwest winds gusting to 30 mph will allow for waves to build to 3 to 5 feet with strong currents expected. High Swim Risks will be in place both days this weekend. Beach Hazards Statements will need to be issued this afternoon for Berrien and La Porte counties at least for Saturday. There will be a lull in winds and possibly waves overnight before dangerous conditions ramp up again into Sunday, with additional headlines likely needed. Heed beach flags/lifeguards and stay out of the water! High pressure builds into the Great Lakes and Midwest regions again by Sunday, giving us the first taste of fall as temperatures and dewpoints fall to comfortable levels. Temperatures will be slightly below normal on Sunday and Monday with highs in the low to mid 70s with northwest flow behind the cold frontal passage. A few crisp nights are ahead Sunday night and Monday night with lows in the low to mid 50s. With much drier air building in, dewpoints only in the 50s will make for several nice days! Another cold front moves in Wednesday with low chances (20-30%) for rain/storms maintained. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 156 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Expect predominantly VFR to MVFR conditions at the terminals, with quick periods of IFR possible. A cold front will pass from west to east through the period, with potential for showers, storms, and BR/Fog development. So far this evening has been fairly quiet with respect to t-storm activity along the cold front just west of Lake MI. Have tempos in for any showers/storms and 3-5SM BR, first at KSBN then at KFWA. MVFR ceilings move in behind the front and then eventually break to VFR by mid-late afternoon. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 10 AM CDT this morning through Sunday evening for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 11 AM EDT this morning through Sunday evening for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...MCD  204 FXUS63 KARX 220622 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 122 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A dry and pleasant weekend with highs in the low 70s to low 80s. - Next widespread chance (30 to 55%) for showers and storms in Tuesday into Wednesday - Seasonable temperatures continue for next week with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1147 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Today - Monday: Dry and Seasonable After this shortwave exits the region, northwest flow returns as a trough sets up to our east and a ridge to our west. This ridge will be at its strongest over the weekend across the central CONUS. While in between these two features, our region will be under the influence of surface high pressure helping to keep conditions dry and temperatures in the low 70s to low 80s. Dewpoints also lower during the weekend into the 50s resulting in a pleasant day for each of the next three days. Heading into Monday this ridge breaks down as a shortwave trough moves across southern Canada. Tuesday - Wednesday: Storm Potential Returns Ensemble and deterministic guidance are in good agreement that the shortwave moves down into northern Minnesota on Tuesday resulting in increased precipitation chances for the Upper Midwest during this two day stretch. The timing and placement of where the precipitation will end up at is still uncertain. These details, as well if any of these storms have severe potential, will be ironed out over the next few days. Thursday - Saturday: Dry Early, More Storm Potential Into the Weekend Once the shortwave passes through the area, northwest flow continues for Thursday allowing for much of the region to remain relatively dry. By Friday, the upper-level pattern switches to a more zonal flow. Heading into the weekend members from both the GEFS (25 to 40%) and EPS (20 to 30%) are highlighting the potential for more showers and storms. The deterministic GFS and ECMWF also show a wave impacting the Upper Midwest during this time, however it is still too far out to be confident in this scenario occurring. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions expected through the period outside of the Wisconsin River valley, where fog may develop overnight tonight. Northwesterly wind direction should keep this from spreading to the Mississippi and LSE. Expect some gusts to 20-25 knots during the afternoon tomorrow. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cecava AVIATION...Ferguson  252 FXUS65 KBOI 220623 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1223 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong thunderstorm-outflow wind event moving northward through Idaho this evening. - Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT in the Treasure Valley, western Magic Valley, and Upper Weiser River Valley. - Weak Pacific cold front will bring more thunderstorms to the area Saturday afternoon and evening. && .SHORT TERM /Through Monday Night/... Issued 246 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026 The big issue early this evening will be strong thunderstorm-outflow winds entering southwest Idaho ahead of a northward surge of monsoon moisture currently in Nevada. HRRR is the most aggressive of all models but it tends to do well in these situations. HRRR has shown this outflow event consistently in hour-by-hour updates since last night, moving across the NV/ID border around 6 PM MDT this evening, through the Snake Basin 8-9 PM MDT, then weakening as it gets into the ID mountains around 9 PM but still holding together all the way past McCall around midnight MDT. A Wind Advisory has been issued for winds 20-35 mph with gusts to 55 mph, i.e., not as intense as HRRR as that model may have over-forecast it. The full force of the HRRR forecast would bring gusts 60 to 75 mph through the Snake Basin, likely causing damage, not to mention blowing dust and severely restricted visibility. Even so, areas of blowing dust and reduced visibility are expected. Strongest winds should last less than one hour at any given location. The timing of the event looks more definite, though, with the event entirely north of the Snake Basin by 10 PM MDT as it continues to move north while steadily weakening. By the time it gets to McCall, max gusts should be less than 40 mph. As stated earlier, these winds are due to outflow ahead of thunderstorms in a northward surge of monsoon moisture, so that after the winds die down there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms, but with little rain reaching the ground tonight. Meanwhile, we still have a Heat Advisory in effect through 9 PM MDT this evening. Saturday should be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today as a Pacific cold front moves inland and through our area. The front will bring gusty west winds to Oregon and breezy northwest winds to western Idaho. With monsoon moisture still present on the Idaho side, the approaching front will help develop more showers and storms Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, with a better chance of rain than tonight's storms. Sunday will be slightly cooler again, with another chance of late-day showers and storms on the Idaho side. Nighttime temps will be warm tonight and Saturday night, then cooler Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/... Issued 246 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026 Southwest flow aloft will continue through the long term as the Desert Southwest upper-level ridge is tempered by semi-persistent troughing over the Pacific NW. Enough moisture will be in place to carry shower and thunderstorms chances through at least Tuesday night, primarily over southwest ID, with greater uncertainty Wednesday onward. Models show a potent shortwave trough moving over the area on Monday afternoon, with a 20 to 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms over southern ID. In far southeastern OR, there is a 15 to 30 percent chance Monday afternoon and evening as well. The upper-level low pressure system is forecast to move inland mid-to-late next week, causing dry, breezy, and slightly cooler temperatures Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures will be around 2-5 degrees above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /06Z Saturday through Sunday/... Issued 1223 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026 Generally VFR. Areas of wildfire smoke. Scattered showers/virga exiting to the N around 22/09Z. Activity capable of erratic outflows to 25-40 kt and blowing dust reducing vis. Then, scattered storms returning Sat PM, with 30-50 kt outflows and locally heavy rain/MVFR. High density altitude with heat in the afternoon. Surface winds outside of storms: variable 5-15 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. Around 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms impacting terminal Saturday late afternon-evening. Outflows to 30-45 kt possible. Surface winds: variable or southeast 5-15 kt. Sunday Outlook...Generally VFR. Areas of wildfire smoke. Shower and thunderstorm activity in southwest/central Idaho diminishing early Sunday AM. Isolated storms returning near KTWF in the afternoon. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-15 kt with afternoon gusts 15-25 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Red Flag Warning from noon today to midnight MDT tonight for IDZ401>403-421-424-426. OR... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ670>672. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....SH SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....CH  318 FXUS61 KRLX 220624 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 224 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The forecast remains on track with little to no significant changes made at this time. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cold frontal passage today brings additional shower and thunderstorm activity with some storms strong to severe possible. The main threats are damaging wind, hail and isolated flash flooding. 2) A big break from unsettled weather then is expected from Sunday through midweek. More diurnally driven activity expected from then and into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Today, shower and thunderstorm activity is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours under a broad and amplified trough with the parent low pressure system traversing across the Great Lakes. This feature will have activity ahead of its cold frontal boundary with some of the storms having the potential to become strong to severe. Modest instability and shear will support this and SPC has us in mainly a slight threat for severe thunderstorms across the entire area. The main threats will be damaging wind although hail cannot be ruled out along with isolated flash flooding possible. PWATs are not nearly as impressive as yesterday, however they do approach the 1.3 to 1.5 mark along with very high DCAPE around 1000 J/kg and low level dry air to allow for downburst and heavy downpours which would promote possible flooding issues if repeatedly hit by heavy thunderstorm activity. One hour flash flood guidance is low across the board so any of these storms that produce more than guidance is likely to cause an issue if repeated hit or train over the same area, especially across low lying and flood prone areas. Models have come together on frontal passage taking place tonight with thunderstorm activity possible into the overnight however the severe threat will have diminished by then. The Hi-res and CAM models have scattered activity during the afternoon and evening hours. The HRRR is most aggressive as well as the other CAMs that would support the slight risk for severe thunderstorms or at least scattered thunderstorms that have the potential to be strong to severe. WPC had us in a marginal threat for excessive rainfall until this morning although have taken us out of the risk on the latest update. Areas who are most susceptible to flooding issues are the aforementioned low lying and flood prone areas as well as areas who have had significant flooding lately and who's flash flood guidance is lower than the average across the area which is below about 1.5 inches per hour. The aspect we have going for us is that steering flow will be supported by decent upper level dynamics and will allow for storms to be moving relatively at a good pace. KEY MESSAGE 2... As cold frontal passage takes place tonight northwesterly flow under a broad upper level trough will induce dry air into the area lowering dewpoints into the 60s during the daytime and 50s at nighttime over the next several days. Moisture starved and under surface high pressure building in we can expect a dry spell basically through midweek although some lingering showers in the northeast mountains will be possible from Sunday into Monday morning, but the chances will be low. Thereafter, a low pressure system is expected to traverse the region across the Great Lakes and promote unsettled weather on Thursday. After that, diurnally driven activity will be possible going into the weekend under numerous short waves forcast to traverse the area, therefore the dry spell will come to an end by late Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... More dense valley fog is expected this morning except for HTS/BKW who shouldhave enough surface flow to deter fog formation. HTS obs are not updating therefore AMD NOT SKED. Outside the valley fog VFR conditions will prevail after 13Z except for tonight when lower CIGs takeover due to post frontal stratus. Some shower activity is anticipated this afternoon along with possible thunderstorms, however no restrictions are expected unless a site is directly hit. Winds will be out of the southwest and light except may increase some for the afternoon and change out of the west as frontal passage takes place tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions from fog and low stratus may vary this morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 08/22/26 UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L M M L L L H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M L H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L M M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L M M H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR conditions possible in low stratus and fog Sunday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JZ AVIATION...JZ  368 FXUS63 KMPX 220625 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 125 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Pleasant this weekend with seasonable temperatures. -Low chances for thunderstorms overnight Sunday, & again on Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 119 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A pleasant & quiet weekend is expected as high pressure continues to settle over the Upper Midwest. Mostly sunny skies are expected both Saturday & Sunday with highs generally in the upper 70s to around 80, while lower dew points will make for comfortable late-August conditions. Northwest winds will become breezy this morning with gusts around 20-25 mph before winds diminish after sunset. Lighter winds return Sunday as the surface high moves overhead. Clear skies & light winds will also allow for good radiational cooling at night, with lows generally in the 50s and a few upper 40s possible across the typical cooler locations of central Minnesota & western Wisconsin. The surface high begins shifting east Monday, with southerly flow returning ahead of the next weak cold front. This front looks to move through sometime late Monday into Tuesday, bringing our next chance for scattered showers & thunderstorms. Moisture return ahead of the front looks fairly limited though, and considerable spread remains within the ensemble guidance regarding precipitation coverage, so rain chances remain fairly low at this point. The first round of thunderstorms looks possible late Sunday night into Monday morning, but guidance generally keep the shortwave & bulk of the precipitation off to the west over the Dakotas. Another cold front moves through the region on Tuesday, but current model timing consensus brings the front through during the early morning hours, which would mean that any widespread convection & appreciable rainfall could be limited. Otherwise, temperatures look to remain steady through next week with highs generally around 80 & lows in the 50s to low 60s. Overall, were looking at a fairly quiet & seasonable stretch of late- August weather over the next seven days. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR through the period with passing mid-level clouds overnight. Northwest winds increase after sunrise with gusts of 20-25 kts developing by mid-morning. Winds diminish by sunset with light northerly winds tomorrow night. KMSP...Northwest wind gusts of 20-25 kts could develop as early as 8 AM, but are more likely to begin around 9-10 AM. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind N 5 kts. MON...VFR, chc -SHRA late night. Wind S 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR, chc -SHRA early. Wind SW 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...ETA  379 FXUS64 KFWD 220625 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 125 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures near or over 100 degrees will continue through next week. An Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory remain in effect for portions of North and Central Texas through Saturday evening. - Isolated thunderstorms are possible Saturday, and a few could be strong with gusty winds. However, most areas will remain rain-free into next week. - Hot temperatures and low humidity will contribute to increased wildfire starts through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tonight) Issued at 208 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 It's another hot August day across North and Central Texas with current temperatures in the 90s to lower 100s and dewpoints in the 60s. Forecast has been complicated by overnight storms across Oklahoma, which sent an outflow boundary southwestward across North Texas that currently extends from Jacksboro to Fort Worth to north of Athens. Clouds and cooler air behind the outflow has lowered temperatures quite a bit - mainly in our northeast counties which were removed from the Extreme Heat Warning and replaced with a Heat Advisory for today. Locations further south towards the I-20 corridor including the Metroplex will still see ample sunshine and high heat index values, so not making any changes to those hazards attm. As far as rain chances, morning showers/storms have mostly dissipated. Satellite imagery shows cumulus clouds developing ahead of the outflow boundary from the southern Metroplex eastward into East Texas, and some isolated showers and storms may develop this afternoon/evening east of I-35E and south of I-20 where low pops are warranted. Given the hot and dry inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, strong winds are possible with any storms that do develop this afternoon/evening. For tonight, earlier CAM and model runs were showing potential for some showers and storms in our north/northeast counties but have backed off in recent runs. Will keep low pops across our north for now but note these are highly uncertain. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 208 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Forecast for Saturday is also of lower than usual confidence as model guidance has been showing varying solutions from run to run. In general, another hot day is anticipated due to the large upper level ridge over the Four Corners shifting eastward towards the Texas Panhandle. Highs will once again be well into the 100s for most of North and Central Texas, and have extended the Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory through tomorrow accordingly. However, our region will remain in northerly flow on the east side of the upper ridge, and several models show a weak shortwave moving southward out of Oklahoma across our forecast area during the afternoon/evening. This could allow for some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop across North Texas in the afternoon that would move southward into Central Texas during the evening. Therefore have expanded low pops across the entire CWA for tomorrow. Dependent on if/when any showers/storms do form on Saturday, this may create havoc with high temperatures and associated heat headlines. Once again, a very hot and dry troposphere would allow for any storms that do develop to produce strong gusty winds. From Sunday through Tuesday, 12Z guidance shows the H5 ridge building/shifted eastward closer to North and Central Texas, which should shut off any precip chances will heating us up a notch. In fact, one or more of these days could be the hottest of the summer as highs get close to the 110 mark. By Wednesday through the remainder of next week, the upper ridge begins to weaken somewhat while shifting back to the west, allowing for stronger northerly flow aloft across our region. This pattern shift will lower our high temperatures several degrees, while also allowing for low rain chances each day, especially our east half. Even so, it will still be hot and dry with highs in the upper 90s and 100s as we get closer to the end of August. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are present at all TAF sites early this morning and are expected to prevail through the period. Winds will veer SW this morning and back SE this evening, remaining light (<10KT) throughout. Thunderstorms may cross the Red River into North TX late this evening, but confidence is low in impacts to the D10 TRACON given the low chance of storm development and uncertainty in location. Timing has trended later to between 0-4Z. Model guidance is in greater agreement that, if storms do form, areas west of the Metroplex are more likely to be impacted. Thus, while still a low-confidence scenario, a temporary northerly wind shift due to outflow seems more likely than storms directly over the Metroplex sites. Since this wind shift is uncertain, dependent on storms, and late in the TAF period, we have opted to keep it unmentioned and will reassess in future TAF cycles. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 104 83 106 84 / 10 10 10 0 Waco 104 80 105 81 / 10 10 0 0 Paris 99 75 102 79 / 20 10 10 0 Denton 104 79 106 82 / 10 20 10 0 McKinney 103 78 105 81 / 10 10 10 0 Dallas 105 82 107 84 / 10 10 10 0 Terrell 104 78 106 81 / 10 10 10 0 Corsicana 104 80 106 81 / 10 10 0 0 Temple 104 79 106 79 / 10 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 107 77 108 79 / 10 20 10 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091-092- 100>104-115>121-130>134. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ093>095-105>107- 122-123-129-135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION...Hernandez  521 FXUS62 KCAE 220626 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated the Key Messages to reflect seasonal summer conditions expected this week. Updated 06z Aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Seasonal temperatures with afternoon thunderstorm chances. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonal temperatures with afternoon thunderstorm chances. Persistent upper ridging that was in place the last week will give way to troughing over the eastern US. This will lead to more seasonal temperatures with blended guidance highs in the upper 80s and low 90s and lows in the upper 60s and low 70s. Relatively high confidence in the temperature forecast with a limited interquartile range within blended guidance. Drier air is beginning to work its way into the area with northwest flow strengthening through today. This will limit convective coverage, although lingering low level moisture, especially in the eastern portion of the forecast area will support isolated storms with moderate instability and HREF sbCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg. By Sunday, NAEFS mean indicates PWATs will be around the tenth percentile, around an inch and while can't completely rule out a stray storm with a strong moisture gradient near the southern portion of the forecast area, expected mostly dry conditions. While isolated diurnally driven storms will be possible early this week, increasing moisture mid to late week will likely lead to higher coverage of storms each afternoon with LREF probabilities around 50- 70% of PWATs greater than 1.75 inches Wednesday through the end of the week and weak shortwaves leading to increased forcing. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are present at all sites sans OGB. IFR and potentially LIFR ceilings likely await us later tonight... High, debris cloudiness is present across the area as convection wanes across the southeastern CONUS. Beneath this, observations reveal a deck of stratus beginning to develop and push southward out of the northern Midlands. Orangeburg is already seeing IFR ceilings and CUB/CAE have flirted with ceilings over the last hour or two. Expecting widespread ceiling restrictions to overspread the sites over the next 3-4 hours, persisting through late morning across the area. We should see clouds break by late morning/early afternoon, with isolated showers/storms possible this afternoon. Coverage is far less certain than it was yesterday, so have opted to keep mention of precip out of the TAFs for now. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Thunderstorm chances remain into the weekend, with scattered to widespread convection expected. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...96 AVIATION...PL  605 FXUS62 KTAE 220627 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 227 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again for this afternoon and evening, mainly across Florida and far southern Georgia. The strongest storms are expected to produce wind gusts of 40-60 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rain. - A typical summertime pattern is expected for next week with highs in the mid 90s and isolated to scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening. A gradual increase in rain chances is expected later in the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 For today, an upper level shortwave will bisect our area from northeast to southwest. Therefore, rain chances will be highest for areas from Panama City to Tifton and southward. While soundings aren't quite as impressive today compared to yesterday, some gusty winds could still occur with the strongest storms. Drier air will sneak into our area as well, which should keep us below Heat Advisory levels. It will still be hot with highs in the lower 90s and heat index values of 100-107. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Sunday will be the driest day with precipitable water values dropping to the 1.2-1.5 inch range. Thus, little coverage of showers and storms is expected for Sunday. What little activity occurs will likely be near the sea breeze. Highs will still be quite warm in the mid to upper 90s, but the lower dewpoints will keep most heat indices below the heat advisory of 108F, with the possible exception of along the coast. For Monday, we'll have to watch if a shortwave rounds the ridge to our west and enters our area during the afternoon, which may help spark better coverage of showers and storms. Highs will still be in the mid 90s. Through much of the remaining part of the upcoming week, the ridge will remain off to our west, and we'll remain in northwesterly flow aloft. So, we'll continue to monitor for any ridge-riding disturbances, but our rain chances will gradually increase with a return to a summer pattern. Highs remain in the low to mid 90s with heat index values of 102-108. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 102 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Some MVFR to IFR ceilings are possible near KDHN and KABY around sunrise this morning, so have included TEMPO groups there to account for that. Another round of afternoon showers and storms are forecast. Otherwise, VFR conditions are generally forecast to prevail outside of convection. && .MARINE... Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Scattered storms are expected for today with gusty winds and brief waterspouts are possible in the stronger storms. Otherwise, mainly gentle to occasionally moderate southwesterly breezes will continue over the next several days with seas around 1-2 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Generally light west to southwest transport winds will continue through today, then become more variable on Monday. Dispersions will remain good overall each afternoon. Scattered showers and storms are expected again this afternoon, but decreasing coverage is anticipated for Sunday. Gusty, erratic winds and dangerous lightning strikes will be possible. Drier air will move in on Sunday, but RH values will stay above critical levels. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Locally heavy downpours will be possible with the storms this afternoon with isolated areas receiving a few inches of rainfall in a short period of time. This would leadto some nuisance to isolated flash flood concerns, particularly in low-lying or poor drainage areas. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 93 74 97 74 / 60 40 10 10 Panama City 90 78 93 78 / 40 10 10 10 Dothan 94 73 97 72 / 20 10 10 10 Albany 94 73 97 72 / 50 20 10 10 Valdosta 94 72 97 72 / 70 20 10 10 Cross City 91 74 93 74 / 30 30 40 10 Apalachicola 89 78 92 79 / 40 20 30 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM....DVD AVIATION...Reese MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...DVD  437 FXUS63 KGRB 220626 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 126 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and storms (30-50% chance) expected over north-central to eastern WI, mainly in the afternoon. A strong storm with gusty winds and hail is possible. - Dry weather returns Sunday and Monday, with a period of unsettled weather arriving for the middle of next week. - Slightly below normal temps this weekend, then a return to near normal readings for most of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 126 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 This Weekend...Recent rainfall, mostly clear skies and light winds has led to some patchy ground fog development, especially across northern WI. Some clouds moving in should help keep the fog in check, but at least some patchy fog will continue early this morning, then burn off after sunrise. Northwest, cyclonic flow will prevail across the Great Lakes through the weekend with a couple shortwaves moving with this flow bringing chances for a few showers and storms. The first weak shortwave arrives this morning, bringing a stray shower or sprinkle across far northern WI. A second shortwave will dive across northeast WI this afternoon, bringing isolated to scattered showers and storms (20-50% chance) mainly to far northern and eastern WI. While weak deep layer shear (under ~25 kts) will limit overall organization of the storms and the severe threat, SBCAPE of up to ~1200 J/kg, inverted-V soundings and very steep low-level lapse rates will promote some gustier winds and small hail in the stronger showers/storms. Northwest winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph this morning and afternoon. Surface high pressure and drier air will keep the area dry tonight into Sunday. Northwest winds will be a little lighter on Sunday, but still gust to 20 mph. Next Week...Dry weather continues on Monday, then another shortwave trough is forecast to move across the region late Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing the next chance (40-65%) for showers and thunderstorms. Instability appears modest with this mid-week feature, keeping severe probabilities low. Temperatures...Temps this weekend will dip a little below normal as northwest flow prevails, with highs mainly in the 70s to near 80 (with a few upper 60s over far northern WI on Sunday). A couple chilly nights are in store this weekend, especially across northern WI where lows will dip into the upper 30s to low 40s. Temps nudge back to near or slightly above normal for much of next week with highs mainly in the mid 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1016 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A cold front is exiting northeast Wisconsin and over Lake Michigan late this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will have or about to exit by TAF issuance time. Winds will shift to the northwest as the front passes. Scattered VFR clouds will likely persist into the overnight hours before clearing occurs for a short time. Patchy ground fog is possible, particularly over the northwoods (RHI). Clouds increase on Saturday morning as an upper disturbance dives into the region from the northwest. While sct-bkn MVFR ceilings could move into far north-central WI after 10Z, expect low end VFR clouds to build with daytime heating in the 15-16Z timeframe. Expect scattered showers and isolated storms to develop over northeast WI in the 19-23Z timeframe which could impact GRB/MTW so added a prob30 group consequently. ATW is on the western edge of the shower potential, but will continue to monitor trends. Northwest winds will be a bit breezy on Saturday with gusts to 20 kts at all terminals. Clearing skies are anticipated after 00z Sun. && .MARINE... Issued at 126 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Northwest winds of 10-20 kts are expected this weekend. Gusts to 25 kts will be possible, mainly near Death's Door. HREF 10m gust ensemble mean and max bring 25 kt winds right to Washington Island, but keep the stronger winds towards northern Lake Michigan. Due to the very small area and marginal winds, will hold off on issuing a Small Craft Advisory. Offshore winds will limit waves to 1 to 3 ft for most spots on the bay and nearshore waters, with any 3-4 foot waves staying in the open waters. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Bersch AVIATION.......MPC MARINE.........Bersch  514 FXUS64 KOUN 220626 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 126 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 124 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Excessive heat continues through the weekend and into next week. - Isolated to scattered rain/storms are possible most days. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Although perhaps not as strong as last night, there is an area of warm air advection that develops overnight across central sections of Oklahoma up into Kansas. This should result in at least a few showers and perhaps thunderstorms after midnight. Currently most likely area would be near and just east of I-35 corridor. The NAM NEST is the most aggressive, while others have almost nothing, so will lean somewhere is the middle as far as chances late tonight into Saturday morning. Other isolated activity farther west and south appears possible as well. In addition to this, models hint at the potential for another complex of storms moving out of Kansas around 8-10am and then moving south and southeast across much of the eastern half of Oklahoma during the day Saturday, skirting the OKC metro area. Although inconsistencies in the models keep overall confidence rather low. Much like yesterday, this will keep a fairly large area with at least a period of cloud cover and possibly precip through the morning before possibly clearing out in the afternoon, allowing temperatures to climb, just how high is the question. There could be a tight temperature gradient somewhere near or just west of I-35 Saturday afternoon. Some models are redeveloping convection during the afternoon on residual boundaries from morning activity, mainly near and south of I-40. With the very hot surface temperatures and inverted-V type soundings expected by afternoon. A few severe wind gusts will be possible with this activity. This will also make it a difficult forecast with regards to heat headlines, but will lean a little more liberally with the potential and have added several counties farther north and east into the advisory. Still a chance that a some counties may need to be added as things evolve today and a few might even need to be upgraded, but confidence at this point is not there. Will also need to continue to watch fire weather conditions across western and southwestern Oklahoma into north Texas where the heat, low afternoon humidity and stressed vegetation will result in some areas of elevated fire weather. Possible outflow from convection will also be a concern. This outflow could also be a focus for additional afternoon and evening convective development across southern Oklahoma into north Texas. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 After the evening potential storms, the remainder of Saturday night and Sunday look to be dry as upper ridge tries to reassert itself further east across Oklahoma and north Texas. Any residual boundary will likely wash out or quickly lift back northward early Sunday leaving only north central Oklahoma to remain in the 90s Sunday afternoon with the remainder of the area once again climbing into the triple digits with southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas possible above 110 degrees. Winds will be rather light (10-15mph) Sunday, but the extreme heat and low humidity will again create elevated fire weather conditions, especially across western and southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas Sunday afternoon. The upper ridge remains the dominate feature as we go into Monday, meaning very little chance of precip. Additionally the models are showing a surface low that develops in northwest Oklahoma and then drifts east and southeast through the day with a trailing surface boundary. A lot will depend on the location of this boundary through the day, but along and south of it we will see a pre-frontal torch with higher 850mb temperatures and stronger surface and low level westerly winds. This will heighten the fire weather concerns Monday afternoon in these areas with near critical conditions developing. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 This boundary may linger into Tuesday with slightly cooler temperatures across the northern half of the area, but still baking across the south with temperatures once again approaching 110 degrees. The ridge looks to push off to the southwest a bit as well which allows better northwest flow to develop and slightly cooler temperatures (still above normal). Although a few afternoon showers/storms not out of the question Tuesday afternoon, a better upper shortwave drops southeast out of the High Plains as we go into Tuesday night and Wednesday. This should bring, at least to northwest Oklahoma, a better chance of rain as storms move off the higher terrain and slide southeast into Oklahoma. Scattered activity may continue through the end of the week as the northwest flow regime continues to bring some minor shortwaves overhead. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1012 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR ceilings with mid/high clouds. There is a chance (20-30%) for showers/storms to develop overnight/early Saturday and continue into Saturday evening across portions of the area. E to SE winds will continue overnight. Outflow from the thunderstorms Saturday will cause winds to shift directions and/or speed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 103 74 102 78 / 20 10 10 0 Hobart OK 108 75 108 80 / 20 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 108 78 109 82 / 30 30 0 0 Gage OK 102 71 104 76 / 10 10 0 10 Ponca City OK 97 71 95 73 / 30 0 10 10 Durant OK 103 76 106 80 / 30 30 10 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ021>023-027-033>039-044>046-050. TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...25  845 FXHW60 PHFO 220629 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 829 PM HST Fri Aug 21 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Strong trades develop this weekend as Tropical Storm Moke moves from east to west, south of the islands. This system will deliver periods of rainfall to all islands, but heaviest along windward and southeast slopes of the Big Island. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Big Island. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE... This evening's IR satellite imagery loop showed an area of convection several hundred miles southeast of the Big Island associated with Tropical Storm Moke. According to the 5 PM HST NHC advisory, the center of Moke around 595 miles southeast of Hilo moving west northwest at 12 miles per hour. Closer to home, IR satellite showed dissipating cloud cover over the interior, due to the loss of diurnal heating, along with scattered low clouds drifting toward the windward coasts of most islands. Radar has been very quiet this evening with little in the way of shower coverage of rainfall accumulation. Relatively dry air can be noted below the 6000 ft subsidence inversion height on the 00Z Hilo sounding. Through Saturday, local pressure gradients will continue to tighten across the state and allow trade winds to gradually increase. The forecast focus now will be to determine which zones are to be included in a Wind Advisory, or High Wind Warning if need be, for Saturday night through Sunday as Tropical Storm Moke moves from east to west, south of the islands. The short term forecast looked on track, so no major adjustments to the grids were warranted in this update. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 PM HST Fri Aug 21 2026 Trade winds remain light over the western end of the state as surface troughing continues lifting off to the northwest. This trough, the remnant of TC Hernan, has draped a modest band of moisture over Oahu this afternoon where sea breeze convergence has capitalized on the resident weakly stable environment and led to numerous showers over the interior. Prospects for afternoon showers on the other islands remain limited due to diminished moisture and/or stronger trade winds. Attention then turns to Tropical Storm Moke which is currently positioned about 650 miles southeast of Hilo and is lifting slowly NW. Satellite presentation is characteristic of a storm affected by southerly shear with convection concentrated north of the center of circulation. Moke is also drawing north a band of rich moisture originating from the deep tropics. PWAT values within this moisture plume average about 2.5" which is what it will be when it reaches the Big Island late Saturday night into Sunday. The forecast quandary for today is seemingly answered by a northward jump in the 18z GFS to much more closely match the 12z EC and the official NHC forecast. This in turn adds confidence to the official forecast which was based on the latter 2 sources and is considerably wetter for the Ka'u and Puna Districts of the Big Island. Instead of straight trades through the lowest 10kft or so as suggested by this morning's GFS, the northern periphery of the envelope of cyclonic flow will envelop the Big Island allowing winds to veer to SE and steer greater moisture content to the SE facing slopes of the Big Island. The forecast for around 10" in this area, locally higher, remains on track. Rain will begin over SE and Windward Big Island late Saturday night or early Sunday morning, peak in intensity Sunday afternoon/evening and then linger through Monday, particularly over upslope areas where afternoon convection may be fairly robust on Monday afternoon. Strong trades ensure fast-moving showers elsewhere except perhaps Windward Maui where a few inches of rainfall appears increasingly likely. Though trades may beon the wetter side on Monday, prospects for flooding for Molokai, Oahu, and Kauai appear quite limited. The Flood Watch for the Big Island remains in good shape with no adjustments needed. Secondary forecast concern is wind magnitude. As with the rainfall forecast, the northward jump by the 18z GFS increases confidence in the existing wind forecast. The pressure gradient north of TS Moke will begin strengthening tonight with peak winds expected Sunday and Sunday evening. Low stability and plenty of moisture advection will make for inefficient and limited downsloping. Although the usual suspects will be windy, will shy away from a High Wind Watch for any zones at this time. Instead, this appears to be a solid Wind Advisory (gusts to 50 mph) for at least Maui County and the Big Island and possibly Oahu as well. Low amplitude high pressure remains anchored along 30N supporting breezy trades continuing through most or all of next week. && .AVIATION... Tonight into Saturday, trade winds will fill back in, gradually strengthening across the island chain from east to west becoming locally strong by the afternoon. AIRMET Tango will likely be needed for low level turbulence downwind of island terrain. While occasional pockets of MVFR conditions will be possible within passing showers along windward and mauka locations, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday. && .MARINE... A trough in the northwest offshore waters will move west as trade winds have begun to fill in across the coastal waters from east to west. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been issued through Saturday afternoon for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and Big Island. The SCA may need to be extended into western waters this weekend as trades strengthen in response to Tropical Storm Moke passing south of the state. Seas greater than 10 feet will may occur over the eastern half of the coastal waters. Tropical storm conditions are expected Saturday night into Sunday across the southern offshore waters. Thus, a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for these waters this weekend. Surf along south-facing shores will remain elevated through the weekend. Another reinforcing south swell is expected over the weekend which should boost surf to near the summer averages this weekend. A series of south swells next week, with above average surf during the second half of next week, may potentially increase surf to advisory levels. Surf along east-facing shores remains below average tonight then is expected to build this weekend per strengthening trades. Surf along east and south-facing shores will be compounded by a southeast swell generated by Tropical Storm Moke that will build in through Sunday and then become south to southwesterly through early next week. This short period captured fetch from TS Moke could cause surf to approach advisory levels along the east-facing shores of Big Island Saturday night into Sunday. Moke's wind field is forecast to be relatively small and, with potential shifts in forecast tracks, forecast confidence for Big Island east-facing shore advisory-level surf is low. North-facing shores will remain tiny through tonight. Small, medium to long period west to north swell originating from Hurricane Lala will arrive this weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 259 PM HST Fri Aug 21 2026 Trade winds increase over the weekend and the inversion, currently around 6-7kft, will steadily weaken and eventually erode altogether as deep moisture associated with TS Moke moves into the area late Saturday night into Sunday. Heavy rain is expected over windward and SE facing slopes of the Big Island on Sunday. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from late Saturday night through Monday afternoon for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island Summits-Kohala-Kona. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel. && $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...Thomas DISCUSSION...JVC AVIATION...Vaughan MARINE...Blood  808 FXUS62 KFFC 220629 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 229 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - A surface boundary will spark additional showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across portions of south-central Georgia. - Drier conditions on Sunday will be followed by a return to low daily rain chances for most from Tuesday onward. - Seasonal, less oppressive heat returns to North Georgia today and areawide by Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 227 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Currently: Much quieter tonight compared to this time yesterday. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms linger in the vicinity of Columbus and south of Macon but these are on the downward trend. A surface front bisects the forecast area with drier air starting to filter in behind it as noted by latest WV imagery. Temperatures are still warm thanks to high cirrus with readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Low clouds and patchy fog are likely this morning with improvements expected at or shortly after sunrise. Precipitation Trends: The surface front will continue to push through the forecast area today as a large upper troughing digs eastward towards the Atlantic Coast. Showers and thunderstorms will largely be focused along and south of the frontal boundary for this afternoon -- namely along and south of a line from Columbus to Sandersville. Similar to previous days, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall will accompany any storm. Areas north of the front will be mostly dry today and dry conditions everywhere on Sunday as the front should make it through the area tonight. Heat Trends: Drier air and lower dewpoints behind the front will lend to less oppressive heat for North Georgia today and areawide on Sunday. Daytime temperatures will still largely remain in the 90s but dewpoints in the 60s will make being outside a little less miserable this weekend. Forecast highs today and Sunday will rise into the low to mid 90s with temperatures in the 80s for the higher elevations. Overnight temperatures are forecast to fall into the 60s to low 70s each night/early morning. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 227 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The long term begins with an upper-level longwave trough set up over our region that will remain in place and result in drier conditions through the first half of next week. As drier conditions filter into the CWA, it will set up a nice run of drier days, with slightly cooler mornings, providing us with favorable conditions for outdoor activities. Additionally, precipitation chances will be limited through at least Tuesday, with dry mid to upper level conditions spreading across the region in combination with lower precipitable water values between 0.5-1 inch. By mid-week, the axis of the trough lifts out of the CWA toward the northeast, and the pattern will become more zonal, allowing for an influx of moisture from the Gulf, increasing our precipitation chances and humidity by mid-week. This will result in a return to the typical August diurnal thunderstorm pattern we are accustomed to as we move into the latter half of next week. Daytime temperatures will likely climb back into the low to mid-90s, with possible triple- digit heat indices for the second half of the workweek. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 109 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Mostly VFR though a period of patchy SCT MVFR and IFR cigs may develop most likely between 08-12z. Patchy low cigs 4-6SM also possible. Light and VRB wind overnight picking up from the NW for the northern sites and SW to W at the southern sites. Once the front clears CSG/MCN winds will veer NW. Speeds 5-8kts. Iso to Sct tsra Sat aftn mainly south of MCN and CSG. Chances too low to mention in TAF at this time. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium confidence on lower cigs tonight. High confidence on all other elements. 07 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 92 69 92 65 / 0 10 0 0 Atlanta 92 72 91 68 / 0 10 0 10 Blairsville 85 62 83 58 / 0 10 0 0 Cartersville 93 68 91 64 / 0 10 0 10 Columbus 95 72 95 70 / 10 10 0 10 Gainesville 91 69 89 65 / 0 10 0 0 Macon 93 71 94 68 / 20 10 10 0 Rome 93 68 91 64 / 0 10 0 10 Peachtree City 92 69 92 66 / 0 10 0 10 Vidalia 93 73 96 71 / 40 10 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....82 AVIATION...07  743 FXUS63 KDMX 220628 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 128 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of patchy fog possible this morning. - A cooler, drier airmass settles over Iowa today, bringing comfortable conditions and slightly below average temperatures. - Rain and thunderstorm chances return to the state Late Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 125 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The cold front has cleared central Iowa, with a dry and comfortable airmass building in behind it. Quiet conditions established overnight will persist through Saturday afternoon. Patchy Fog remains possible early Saturday morning, though confidence in widespread coverage is limited due to dry air advecting in from the north. The highest probability for fog will reside along low river valleys and portions of southern Iowa, where boundary layer moisture and higher dew points linger. Surface high pressure expanding across Northern Plains will maintain comfortable conditions today, keeping dew points in the 50s to lower 60s. High temperatures will be noticeably cooler than Friday, dipping slightly below seasonal averages in a few locations; making for a great day to be outdoors. Quiet weather continues Saturday night, though cloud cover will gradually increase across western Iowa as a weak shortwave passes over the High Plains. Measurable precipitation is unlikely with this feature, but better chances for showers and thunderstorms arrive Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Iowa remains seated between a ridge centered over the Four Corners region and a trough over the Great Lakes. If either of these systems shift, that will change how far east or west moisture gets back into the area by Sunday night, which is when the next shortwave looks to move through, potentially bringing more precipitation chances into Sunday morning. At the moment, however, deterministic guidance is still struggling with the timing of this system. With this comes some degree of disagreement with placement, all of which will be better assessed in the coming days. This upper level pattern looks to remain rather stagnant, with the potential for additional shortwaves to move through the region next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1039 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Skies are clear for the most part across the state except for some lingering smoke aloft. This may continue into tomorrow but is not expected to be impactful. Some patchy fog development remains possible tonight, particularly at KOTM, but given the extra breeze behind the front and dry air advection, seems unlikely at this point. Cumulus may develop at KDSM/KOTM terminals tomorrow but will likely stay VFR. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TDR LONG TERM...67 AVIATION...De Bruin  769 FXUS64 KCRP 220628 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 128 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 123 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Heat Advisory may become necessary this afternoon. - Major risk of heat-related impacts continue into next week with peak afternoon heat indices around 110 - Daily elevated fire weather conditions over the Brush Country && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 123 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Hot and rain-free conditions will continue through the weekend as high pressure persists. Fortunately, moisture will be limited through the weekend, which will help limit some of our heat concerns. That being said, it will still be very hot. Heat index values will still range from 105 to nearly 110 through Monday. Moisture starts to slowly increase beginning Tuesday, which will increase heat index values once again. Precipitation chances will remain near zero through Monday, but we still can't rule out an isolated shower along the seabreeze. Chances will increase slightly, though still remain below 10% Tuesday through the latter part of next week as moisture increases. The hope on the horizon is that the ridge may shift just enough to allow a trough to sneak under the eastern edge which could serve to cool things down ever so slightly and could increase the chances of rain to nearly mentionable. This is still very questionable, but we can hope. Continue to practice heat safety: look before you lock, limit outdoor exposure, drink plenty of water, and take frequent breaks. For more safety information please visit weather.gov/heatsafety. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 123 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The overall forecast remains the same. VFR conditions will persist, with some brief MVFR/IFR ceilings/visibility for ALI and VCT from around 09Z-14Z. Generally south to southeast winds will be below 12 knots overnight, then increases to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 123 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Light to moderate (BF 2-4) onshore breezes will continue through the period, with occasional fresh (BF 5) breezes possible during the late afternoon/evening hours, especially south of Port Aransas. Seas are expected to remain around 2-3 feet. Rain chances will remain near zero into next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 123 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ERC values are in the 75-89th percentile, with low humidity, dry to critically dry fuels, and hot temperatures, leading to elevated fire weather conditions over the Brush Country and portions of the Coastal Plains. Conditions will need to be closely monitored as a few locations across the Brush Country could even see critical fire weather conditions into next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 97 77 97 77 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 102 75 102 74 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 105 79 106 79 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 102 74 102 74 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 92 81 93 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 105 77 106 76 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 100 75 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 94 81 93 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LS/77 AVIATION...TE/81  885 FXUS61 KGYX 220630 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 230 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast were needed. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Unsettled weather is expected through the weekend, but no widespread significant rainfall amounts anticipated. 2. Isolated rain chances Monday-Tuesday with a lingering upper- level low. Tranquil conditions by midweek, and loose signals for increasing humidity late week ahead of another system. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure south of southern New England will continue to slowly lift northeast and weaken today. As it does so showers will become more likely, especially over western Maine. Save for the Seacoast it is possible most of NH remains dry today. NBM handling the placement of best rain chance fairly I think, so no planned changes there. Despite the relatively high PoP, QPF will be on the low side. Most locations can expect less than a tenth of an inch, but an especially lucky section of town could see up to a quarter. Overnight we will need to watch and see how marine fog/stratus develops. The long range HRRR brings low visibility into coastal areas, especially for western Maine. The set up would be favorable as a warm front begins to lift into the region by early Sun. Along that warm front showers and maybe a few thunderstorms are forecast to form and lift north into the local area. This will bring a scattered potential for beneficial rainfall amounts. I do not anticipate this being a widespread soaker, but locations that do see precip could see a decent amount given that this will be more convective in nature. At this time I think significant rainfall amounts will be too isolated to forecast, so I will stick with the NBM QPF amounts, which more closely match ensemble means around a quarter of an inch. Showery weather may continue into the afternoon and overnight, as upper low begins to move overhead and keep conditions unstable. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Upper-level low moving out of the Great Lakes will continue to pivot into southern Quebec early week while fully occluding/cutting off from the mean flow. This brings cyclonic westerly flow to New England. Most likely outcome will be falling dew points with diurnal clouds/brief showers Mon-Tue, especially focused in the higher terrain and closer to the upper-level low in the north. Should see a nice dry punch on Monday especially across NH with very dry mid-levels and dew points mixing down to as low as the 40s! Uncertain how much of this pushes into Maine. Depending on how it all times out there may be an opportunity for some t-storms to develop in a juicy warm sector featuring rather steep lapse rates, MUCAPE values that may be pushing 1000 J/Kg, and close to 50 kts of deep-layer shear. It is possible the mid- level dry punch could be a resistant against robust convection, but will keep a mention of iso to sct showers/thunder in the forecast at this time, with the primary focus from the Kennebec Valley down into the Midcoast. On Wednesday the low loses its grip with brief height rises bringing tranquil conditions. By late week ensembles show another wave heading our way with possible surface cyclogenesis in the Michigan vicinity. With a developing trough to our west, likely will see southerly flow developing and returning humidity, but details are largely unknown at the 6+ day range. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through tonight...VFR prevails for most areas thru sunrise, but valley fog is expected again with local IFR or lower conditions. This will be true at both LEB and HIE again this morning. VFR conditions prevail today, but by mid to late afternoon CIGs will be lowering and MVFR conditions are anticipated. It is possible that some IFR CIGs work into coastal areas by evening along with some rain showers. I think fog is a little more likely based on overnight based on multi-model consensus, but rain chances will primarily be confined to western Maine. Outlook: Sunday: Fog scatters out as rain showers lift across the area Sun. Some improvement to MVFR and VFR is possible by evening. Sunday night: Continued improvement in conditions, except local LIFR in valley fog. Monday: Local MVFR or lower possible in showers. Monday Night: VFR conditions expected. Tuesday: Local MVFR or lower possible in showers. Tuesday Night and Wednesday: VFR conditions expected. && .MARINE... Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA thresholds thru the extended period, despite weak low pressure moving thru the Gulf of Maine today. Will have to watch the overnight window, when areas of fog and low stratus may develop ahead of an approaching warm front. Those foggy conditions are expected to lift out on Sun. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Barker/Legro AVIATION...Legro MARINE...Legro  638 FXUS63 KDVN 220635 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 135 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather expected through the weekend. - Outside of yet another system centered around Wednesday, mainly dry conditions are forecast to prevail until late next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Deep northwesterly flow aloft across the Upper Midwest through Sunday with high pressure shifting eastward from the Plains across the area. This will bring quiet weather to the area through the weekend. Today and Sunday are forecast to have similar high temperatures with slightly cooler temperatures on Sunday. The biggest change will be dewpoints falling into the upper 50s to lower 60s on Sunday resulting in lower humidity. Gusty winds are expected today with high pressure to our west and north to northwesterly winds of 10 to 14 MPH and gusts up to 25 MPH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to continue through much of the next week with some operational models showing a transition to more zonal flow across the CONUS to end the next week. Although there are numerous disturbances moving through the flow passing near to the area the next chance (20 to 35%) for showers and storms appears to be late Tuesday night through Wednesday when a stronger shortwave moves across the region. Rainfalls will be light with forecast probability of a tenth of an inch of rain or more near 0 percent. Monday is expected to be the coolest day of the period with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s and low temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. High temperatures the rest of the week are forecast to be in the lower to mid 80s. Monday night onward, low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 541 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Eastern Iowa TAF sites are forecast to remain on the east side of high pressure that builds southward to near the Iowa/Nebraska border by 18 UTC Saturday. This will lead to VFR conditions through the period. This will keep winds north to northwesterly around 5 to 10 knots. After 15 UTC Saturday, gusty winds are forecast to develop with speeds of 10 to 12 knots and gusts up to 20 knots through the afternoon. Additionally, diurnally driven cumulus are forecast to develop. Winds are expected to diminish after 22 UTC. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cousins LONG TERM...Cousins AVIATION...Cousins  549 FXUS64 KHUN 220634 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 134 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 751 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - There is a low to medium chance of patchy dense fog late tonight into early Saturday morning. - There are low to medium chances of thunderstorms next week. However, timing and impact confidence remains low at this time. && .NEAR TERM... (Tonight through Saturday Night) Issued at 751 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A cold front has shifted south of the TN valley in central MS, AL and GA. A secondary trough axis extends northeast a weak low in central AL through northwest GA and eastern TN where a couple of thunderstorms and showers had developed earlier. At this point, it appears like a dry overnight is expected with the loss of heating along this trough axis. Northerly flow has dropped dew points into the upper 60s to lower 70s this evening over northwest and north central AL into southern middle TN. PW values are dropping into the 1-1.25 inch range as well. Patchy fog is expected to develop as the boundary layer decouples and with a mostly clear sky. Overnight lows will dip into the middle to upper 60s. Another cold front was dropping south through the eastern Corn Belt into the lower MO valley. This front will drop into TN and AR Saturday afternoon and through north AL during the evening hours. MCS clusters are forecast tonight in the Plains which drop southeast into OK and AR in some fashion on Saturday. The NBM PoPs remain quite low, with slightly higher PoPs in our western counties (but still 20% or less). We will monitor trends with the new model runs later tonight, but expect only minor adjustments if any. Forecast highs on Saturday are in the lower 90s for valley areas, and upper 80s atop the higher plateau locations with dew points in the middle 60s which will feel much more comfortable. Any thunderstorm activity should either dissipate or shift south of the TN valley by late Saturday night. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 751 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Dry weather with seasonal temperatures are foreseen on Sunday with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 as high pressure builds south from the Upper Midwest into the OH and TN valleys. Overnight lows will be on the cool side with lower to middle 60s. NW flow at 5h will persist into Monday, with a low to mid level Theta-E gradient and convergence zone located across IA through MO and AR. This will be the genesis region of clusters of showers and thunderstorms which will likely be elevated/higher based as they reach our area on Monday, when we have low chances in the forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 751 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 In the extended forecast, we will get a break from the extreme heat conditions, however in exchange for that, we will be stuck in an unsettled pattern. We will start off with the pattern of an upper level low up in Quebec and the far NE U.S with an amplified ridge stretching from the southern Rockies up through the Northern Plains. On the back side of the ridge, a smaller upper-level low in Manitoba will try to be the driving force for a pattern change. As that smaller low slides SE into the Upper Great Lakes mid-week, the ridge will be dampened enough for it to round the ridge. This pattern will keep us in a northwesterly flow through the week. Embedded in this flow will be shortwaves that will swing through the TN Valley, keeping daily rain chances in. Right now it looks like there is a chance for an MCS to drop through on Tuesday, then again Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Will keep an eye on trends for specific hazards and timing, but for now will stick with NBM POPs. Daytime highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows around 70 degrees. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 134 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Scattered high-lvl convective debris clouds (from earlier convection along the central Gulf Coast) will continue to spread northeastward over the region early this morning. However, skies should remain sufficiently clear to permit the development of patchy BR/FG btwn 9-13Z, especially with calm winds. Thus, a TEMPO group for minor MVFR vsby reductions has been included at both HSV/MSL during this timeframe. With a drier profile in place today, we expect mostly sunny skies with only a few Cu beneath a sct layer of Ac. Lgt NW flow (~5 kts) will prevail for much of the day, with winds expected to veer to the north and strengthen this evening as a reinforcing cold front begins to shift southward thru the TN Valley. Although a few low-topped SHRA may evolve along the front region-wide this evening, chances for TSRA will be slightly higher at MSL (due to a more organized complex of convection tracking southeastward into northern MS). Regardless, precip chances are too low to mention in either TAF attm. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...17 SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM...JMS AVIATION...70/DD  683 FXUS61 KALY 220636 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 236 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SPC expanded the Marginal Risk for isolated severe weather (level 1 of 5) on Sunday to now cover most of eastern NY and western New England. WPC removed the marginal risk for excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4) for Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) After a dry Saturday, areas of showers and thunderstorms arrive late tonight into Sunday A.M with showers and storms returning Sunday P.M. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated severe thunderstorms across much of eastern NY and western New England Sunday P.M. 2) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue Monday and Tuesday, especially near and north of I-90, with temperatures remaining slightly cooler than normal. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Broad troughing continues developing over the Upper Great Plains into the Great Lakes today while the Northeast remains on the west side of large scale ridging over the western Atlantic. While height falls creep into western NY today, eastern NY and western New England remains under the influence of weak subsidence, keeping us dry. Tonight, our upstream trough over the Great Lakes amplifies and digs into the Ohio Valley as two shortwaves phase together with the parent cyclone taking on a negative tilt. This results in strengthening upper level diffluence over the mid-Atlantic as a warm front lifts northward with a weak sfc low developing along the boundary. Meanwhile, strengthening southwest flow aloft will also allow moisture to advect into the Northeast with PWATs rising over 1.50". Chances for showers and even a slight chance for thunderstorms increases from southwest to northeast 06 - 12 UTC Sunday as the front approaches. Guidance continues to hint that the weak sfc low will aid in a more organized area of rain/embedded storms. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the latest probabilistic guidance from the HREF continues to show potential for moderate to heavy rain late tonight into Sunday morning with a 50 - 75% chance for over 0.50" of rain 09 to 15 UTC Sun and even a 25-50% chance for over 1" of rain. However, our recent dry stretch will likely limit flooding and WPC removed the marginal risk for excessive rainfall. After this initial A.M period of rain/storms, we should have a brief break before an occluded front and stronger height falls from the closed parent low over the eastern Great lakes arrive. There remain uncertainties regarding how much instability can develop. While there will be plenty of low- level moisture, morning clouds may struggle to break for sun during the small window before the occluded front arrives Sun P.M. Even still, mid-level dry air and cooler temperatures aloft wrap eastward as the parent cyclone matures, helping to steepen lapse rates with forecast soundings showing "tall- skinny" CAPE developing. Given the high humidity, even limited insolation will contribute to sufficient instability and help generate low- topped convection. While 0-6km shear is rather impressive ranging 40-50kts, 0-3km shear only ranges 20-30kts. Should weak instability keep convection low-topped, storms will not tap into the stronger deep layer shear, decreasing the severe weather potential. SPC expanded the marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated severe weather to now cover much of eastern NY and western New England given persistent forcing ahead of the parent cyclone; however, weak instability/shear are listed as reasons will severe weather may be limited. Main concerns are damaging winds from any severe weather with a linear storm mode favored as shear vectors remain parallel to the boundary. KEY MESSAGE 2... The vertically stack closed low and associated cold pool in the eastern Great Lakes slowly advances eastward Monday into Tuesday supporting slightly cooler than normal temperatures and continued moist cyclonic flow aloft. Coverage of showers and even low- topped convection increases Monday afternoon, especially near/north of I-90, as additional shortwaves rotate around the base of the closed low. Given the cool pool aloft, it likely will not take much upscale growth before lightning occurs with even small hail possible from any taller storms. As winds aloft becoming westerly, a weak lake effect signal looks to develop downstream of Lake Ontario, supporting steadier periods of rain directed into the western Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley Monday P.M into Monday night. Unsettled conditions continue into Tuesday with additional diurnally driven showers again mainly near/north of I-90 but shower coverage should be lower than Monday as the parent cyclone slowly exits into New England. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06z Sunday...VFR conditions currently prevail at all sites with the exception of PSF where visibility and ceiling heights have lowered into the LIFR category due to fog formation. Infrared satellite shows high clouds streaming into the region from the south which should completely mitigate fog development at POU and potentially limit the duration of unfavorable flying conditions at PSF. However, as these clouds will take some time to spread into ALB and GFL, it is possible that some fog could also form at these two sites. Fog at ALB would more likely be fairly shallow and not pose a worsening of conditions that forces a category change out of VFR. However, GFL could see a visibility reduction and potentially a developed ceiling into the IFR category. TEMPOs were added accordingly. Once sufficient cloud cover moves over the terminals and/or the sun starts to break through upon sunrise, all sites will see conditions return, if they haven't already, to the VFR category. For the vast majority of the 06z period, VFR conditions will remain in place. However, forecast soundings at POU and PSF indicated the potential for increasing low-level moisture to lead to the development of MVFR ceilings at times this afternoon. TEMPO and prevailing groups were added accordingly. Winds throughout the period will largely prevail out of the southeast at sustained speeds under 10 kt. Outlook... Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...24/31 AVIATION...12  667 FXUS63 KGID 220636 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 136 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms arrive from the north early this morning. The severe threat has decreased, but a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out through 9am. - Dry conditions return for the rest of the daytime today. Weakening showers and storms arrive from the west late tonight into Sunday morning. - Scattered showers and storms continue on Sunday, but severe weather is unlikely. - Off and on chances for rain and thunderstorms continue through next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Scattered thunderstorms have developed over northern Nebraska are slowly drifting southward. This is expected to be the primary feature to watch through the morning hours, although some isolated showers/storms cannot be ruled out further south/southwest as well. As of 130am, these elevated storms remain fairly disorganized and unimpressive, but there is still potential for them to briefly organize/intensify as they slide through the area in the 3-9am timeframe. After these storms depart, the rest of the day looks to be dry with seasonable temperatures and light winds. Scattered showers and storms return from the west late tonight...most likely after 2am. These storms should be on a weakening trend as they move into an increasingly less favorable thermodynamic environment. As such, severe weather is unlikely. CAMs suggest that scattered showers/storms could persist through the daytime on Sunday. Lingering cloud cover will keep temperatures (and instability) on the lower side. Therefore the severe threat remains low. The continued northwesterly flow pattern will keep daily chances for rain and thunderstorms in the forecast through next week. Based on the global ensembles, Tuesday night appears to be the most favorable day for thunderstorms (and perhaps a few severe storms), but overall details remain very uncertain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 346 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Currently through the rest of this afternoon... Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to make their way southeast across the forecast area today...a trend that will continue though mid-late afternoon hours. Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data showing this activity being driven by a weaker shortwave disturbance sliding out of central SD and into NNErn NE. This disturbance is embedded in larger scale northwesterly flow set up across the Central/Nrn Plains...between ridging extending northward out of the Desert SW and broad troughing across the Great Lakes/Midwest region, while a larger area of low pressure spins off the Pac NW coast. The surface pattern across the forecast area has been a bit of a messy one throughout the day...between just an overall weaker pressure gradient along with any even weak outflow boundaries produced by this activity today...winds are variable in direction. Most speeds have been around 5-10 MPH, a few spots closer to any storms have had gusts closer to 25-30 MPH at least for a brief time. For the rest of this afternoon-early evening...main story will continue to lie with continued potential for scattered showers/storms pushing SE through and eventually out of the forecast area. Near/out ahead of this activity, SPC meso page showing MLCAPE values exceeding 2000 j/kg, with deeper layer/effective shear of at least 30kts. Storms working their way SE will continue to have the potential to be strong/severe...one thing working against activity is that the upper level disturbance/lift just isn't overly strong, which isn't helping overcome some lingering capping. Large hail/damaging winds would be the primary threats. One good thing about the scattered nature of this activity is that so far, areas that had been on the wetter side over the past few days are getting a chance to dry up a bit. Later tonight on into this weekend... Once this ongoing activity slides off to our SE, models continue to show a relative lull across the area through the evening hours. Winds should be turning more east-northeasterly, with models showing an area of sfc low pressure setting up off to our west- southwest...but speeds look to remain on the lighter side overall. A few models try to bring another round of isolated activity back into the area already by around 06Z, but there is more model support for the timing of the next round of showers/storms to be closer to/after 08Z or so. Models showing this activity developing into a NW-SE orientated swath across the forecast area...tied to another weaker, mainly mid-level shortwave disturbance moving through, aided some by frontogenetical forcing closer to 850mb. Hi-res models showing this elevated activity could have CAPE values around 1500 j/kg to tap into, with deeper layer shear around 30-40kts possible...keeping the potential for strong-severe storms in place. Entire CWA remains in the SPC Day 1 Slight Risk area through tonight...large hail and damaging winds remain the primary threats, though additional heavy rainfall rates are not out of the question as well. Not out of the question that some activity could linger into the morning hours on Saturday...and uncertainty in the exact timing of that departure is not high...but outside of that models are in pretty good agreement showing the daytime hours being dry. Aloft, models showing continued northwesterly flow across the area...if anything that low pressure system currently off the Pac NW starts pushing inland, giving the main ridge axis a bit of an eastward push. Winds look to remain on the lighter side around 10-15 MPH, remaining easterly. Forecast highs are in the mid-upper 80s. Models showing another upper level shortwave disturbance riding around the edge of the ridge axis Saturday evening through Sunday AM...bringing another chance for showers/storms to the entire forecast area. The area is currently not outlooked in the SPC Day 2 outlook (just in general thunder)...with models currently showing the better axis of instability setting up just off to our west, and deeper layer shear is on the weaker side. Confidence in precipitation chances Sunday-Sunday night is on the lower side (outside of any lingering activity from Sat night)...with NBM PoPs mainly clipping northern and eastern portions of of the forecast area. Models not showing any notable change in the upper level pattern...and winds turn more southerly as sfc troughing develops over the High Plains. Forecast highs are more in the upper 70s for central/eastern areas, low-mid 80s further west...but that will be dependent on timing of any lingering precipitation. Next week... Periodic thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast as we get into the new work week...but honestly, not a ton of confidence at this point in the timing/tracking of any of the upper level disturbances driving these chances. Models show varying amplitude of the main upper level ridging through the week...so a stronger northward push of the ridge could push better precip chances out of the area, a more zonal pattern could bring more chances...plenty of details to iron out in the coming days. Not seeing any notable swings in temperatures either way through the week...with forecast highs mainly in the mid 80s-low 90s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Sub-VFR conditions possible tonight in storms along with patchy fog. Patchy fog has recently developed over the area and may continue off and on through the mid morning hours. Visibilities are favored to stay largely at or above MVFR though there is some potential for briefly lower visibility. Scattered thunderstorms currently near KVTN are expected to move into the area around 8-13z. These storm could also result in sub-VFR visibilities though confidence in IFR or lower visibility is too low to include in the TAF at this time. Have indicated the fog/storm potential in TEMPO/PROB30 groups. Skies clear as storms exit the area by the mid- morning hours on Saturday. FEW- SCT mid- high level clouds continue through the end of the TAF period. Light and variable winds become easterly during the day before becoming light and variable again Saturday evening. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Mangels DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...Davis  797 FXAK67 PAJK 220639 AAA AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Juneau AK 1039 PM AKDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .UPDATE...Aviation Update for 06z TAF issuance && .AVIATION.../through 06Z Sunday/...Heavier precip has started to trail off for the northern panhandle, however MVFR to occasional IFR CIGs and VIS will continue overnight before the rain finally slides southeastward through Saturday morning. As conditions improve for most of the northern terminals, the southern half of the panhandle will deteriorate as rain overspreads the area early Saturday morning. By this time the rain is not expected to be as heavy and therefore VIS restrictions should not be as drastic and aside from some some periods of lower CIGs, particularly along the outer coast and for Petersburg and Wrangell. Only winds of note are along Lynn Canal with both Haines and Skagway seeing increasing winds through the period as a wave of energy rides up along the front and into the interior tonight. Turbulence impacts are expected to lessen as the front begins to weaken and sag south and east. This influx of moisture into the region is expected to keep freezing levels up between FL100 and FL120. Tail end of the TAF period, another front will be pushing into the northern gulf coast from the west bringing rain and deteriorating conditions once more. && .PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT...400 PM AKDT Fri Aug 21 2026 SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - An active weather pattern will continue through the weekend with mostly cloudy skies and periods of rain, with chances increasing into Sunday for the southern panhandle. - Winds are likely to be variable with frontal passages, and at times gusty, especially within the northern inner channels as afternoon sea breezes develop. SHORT TERM.../through Sunday night/... Rain is expected to continue through Friday afternoon and evening in the northmen panhandle with the heaviest rainfall expected from 4pm to 10pm. Mean values from the NBM are projecting 0.9 inches in Juneau all the way down to 0.5 inches around the rest of the northern panhandle. After this period of heavier rain across the north, the stream of moisture begins falling southeast across the panhandle. Rain in the northern panhandle looks to fall off between 1am and 4am Saturday, which is around when it will start raining in the southern panhandle. The front is likely to bring showers to Petersburg, Wrangell, and Prince of Wales Island, but precipitation chances in Ketchikan and Annette Island remain low. Rain looks to move mostly out of the area by 10am Saturday due to an area of high pressure building over the panhandle followed by a dry slot. The highest chance for rain on Saturday sits around 30-40%, but skies are likely to remain cloudy across the panhandle. Rain chances then increase across the panhandle Saturday night into Sunday morning across the panhandle as a low pressure system in the gulf meets with the moisture transport from lower latitudes. This is likely to bring heavy, widespread rain across the panhandle through the day Sunday. Current thinking is that the northern panhandle will see greater accumulations in the morning and the southern panhandle will see greater accumulations Sunday night. 850mb temperatures are expected to remain slightly more elevated through the day Saturday, bringing high 60s to the southern panhandle, but the next system will wipe out warm temperatures. on Sunday, high 50s and low 60s can be expected across the area. LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/...The low pressure system bringing widespread rainfall to the panhandle Sunday will continue to shift southeastward through Monday, moving out of the northern panhandle and lingering over the southern and parts of thecentral panhandle through the day. The models have come more in line on the low positioning, indicating that the southern panhandle will see the highest rainfall amounts with this system. As the low moves in from the west, the northern panhandle should see the front move in first before rainfall quickly spreads to the rest of the panhandle through Sunday morning. Most of this rain will fall overnight into early Monday morning, tapering off from northwest to southeast through Monday evening. Expecting around an inch and a half of rainfall for parts of the southern panhandle in 24 hours from early Monday morning through early Tuesday morning. Light winds are expected for a majority of the panhandle behind the front, though sea breezes are expected to increase through some of the inner channels Tuesday afternoon, particularly in Lynn Canal. Potential for a break continues to increase for the early week as the low dips south, though keeping an eye on upper level easterly flow that may allow for showers in BC to traverse into the panhandle. The northern and central panhandle have potential to see some sun behind this front on Monday, with the southern panhandle joining in by Tuesday. The slight period of ridging that develops over the eastern gulf should allow winds in the inner channels to switch to a more offshore direction overnight before the weather becomes more active through the second half of the week. With the potential for clearing, sea breezes should increase through midday and turn winds back onshore for a period. Daytime high temperatures will also increase above normal for days that see this clearing, allowing for highs reaching the high 60s to low 70s across the panhandle Tuesday. The next system is expected to reach the panhandle through Wednesday. NBM PoP is getting washed out through the end of the week, so slightly increased confidence through the northern panhandle with the onset of the front. AVIATION.../through 00Z Sunday/...The front continues to impact the northern panhandle and outer coastline through this afternoon and evening, with precipitation expected to increase over the central region near PAPG and PAWG overnight. On the other hand, the southern panhandle currently experiencing clear skies will gradually transition to overcast conditions as a surface low pushes southward. A temporary break in cloud cover is expected for the northern panhandle tomorrow morning between 12Z and 18Z, likely resulting in VFR conditions. However, low clouds and fog may persist due to recent rainfall and a surface inversion maintaining moisture below 5000 ft. In the southern panhandle, a band of rain is forecasted to pass over Prince of Wales and Wrangell Island between 09Z and 15Z, with minimal impacts further southeast, though PAKT may experience MVFR CIGs during this time. Winds are expected to remain mostly calm overnight, with peak speeds of 10 to 15 knots isolated to sites near Lynn Canal, including PAGY, PAHN, and PAJN. While turbulence impacts are expected to lessen, wind direction will remain variable with the frontal passage through the Icy Strait Corridor and as far south as Frederick Sound. Finally, a continued push of tropical moisture keeps a warming trend for freezing levels, which are currently situated between FL100 and FL120. MARINE... Outside: Lots to write about, the simple message is westerly moderate breezes fill in across the Gulf tonight, with fresh breezes near Cape Spencer and Dixon. Mariners moving in and out of Cross Sound should be aware of westerly fresh seas and the tide timings. There still exists high uncertainty with a system moving into the Gulf Sunday. For Sunday, current forecast shows confidence in ESE moderate breezes along our coast; however, we could see more extensive fresh breezes across coastal waters.Current SITREP along our northern coast is clean SSW swell 14 seconds near 3 to 4 ft, with diminishing seas 8 seconds 4 to 5 ft from Cross Sound to Cape Decision. Winds are becoming westerly at gentle to moderate breezes. However, Cape Spencer and Dixon Entrance will see fresh breezes into Saturday. Primary impact is for folks on small skiffs moving around. Saturday a system will begin to move off the Alaska Peninsula, driving a fetch of southwest strong breezes across the western Gulf. The primary question is how strong will winds become along our coast as this system moves east, with a variety of solutions. Some high res guidance wants to put 20 knots of SE winds along our coast by Sunday afternoon, while others suggest winds at a respectable 10 to 15 knots. For now, we highlight moderate breezes for most of our coast. Either way, this feature will start to bury the low amplitude 12 to 14 seconds SSW swell, becoming seas focused near 8 seconds 4 to 5 ft for Sunday. If we see 20 knots of winds, SE seas of 5 to 7 ft become more likely along the northern coast, primarily impacting folks in smaller recreational fishing vessels. Inside: A slightly stronger than anticipated front is moving across the Panhandle this afternoon, freshening winds up across Chatham and Stephens to moderate breezes. Anticipate these southerly winds to move up Chatham this evening into Glacier Bay and portions of Icy. While not the blow of the century, a 15 knot wind in a long fetch can make crossing major passages in a small skiff uncomfortable. Further north in Lynn Canal, strong breezes (22 to 27 knots) were reported earlier, which have diminished to fresh breezes. For northern Lynn, expect this short break to continue this afternoon but late Friday to early Saturday southerly winds will increase back to strong breezes, perhaps near-gale force, persisting into Saturday evening. Furthermore, Friday night into Saturday anticipate westerly winds of moderate to fresh breezes (15 to 21 knots) to build across western Icy Strait, likely moving up into the lower Glacier Bay. This could complicate vessels planning to transit Bartlett Cove. Winds slowly diminish Saturday afternoon with the exception of northern Lynn Canal. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012. && $$ UPDATE...STJ SHORT TERM...AGP LONG TERM...ZTK AVIATION...BAS MARINE...AP Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  017 FXUS63 KICT 220643 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 143 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periodic chances for off-and-on thunderstorms early this morning through next week, especially during the evening, night, and morning hours. - Mostly near to above normal temperatures through at least the next 7-10 days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 THUNDERSTORM CHANCES: Per deterministic and ensemble consensus, anomalous high pressure is expected to remain anchored over the southern to southwest CONUS through at least next week, sending periodic shortwaves over Mid- America in a NW flow aloft regime. This type of pattern will support periodic off-and-on thunderstorm chances through next week, mainly during the evening-night-morning hours. However, confidence is low on finer details, namely exactly when/where thunderstorm activity will track and how widespread it'll be. For overnight through this morning, one of those previously mentioned ripples in the upper flow is expected to approach the region from the northwest, which should support a gradual uptick in showers/thunderstorms across central and eastern Kansas, as 800- 600mb warm advection increases. Modest instability combined with decent directional shear may yield a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of dime-quarter size hail and 60 mph winds, along with locally heavy rainfall. Activity should exit southern to southeast KS by around early afternoon. The next chance of showers/thunderstorms looks to arrive later tonight (Saturday night) through Sunday morning, mainly northwest of the KS Turnpike, as another ripple in the upper flow approaches from the northwest. While widespread severe weather isn't expected, a few strong to marginally severe storms can't be ruled out. Additional thunderstorm chances look to arrive Sunday night through early Monday, mainly along and east of I-135. As previously mentioned, these periodic thunderstorm chances look to persist just about every day through next week, mainly during the evening-night-morning hours. Seasonable instability combined with decent directional shear should yield a continued strong to severe thunderstorm threat, with wind/hail being the primary threats, along with locally heavy rain. TEMPERATURES: With the stout upper ridge remaining anchored within fairly close proximity to the Kansas region, near to above average temperatures are expected through at least the next 7-10 days, possibly longer. Afternoon through early evening heat indices look to be in the 95 to 105 degree range, highest over south-central and southeast KS. The "coolest" day looks to be Sunday, with highs possibly as cool as the mid 80s over east-central KS, with 90s further west/south across central and southern KS. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Main aviation concern will be storm chances early this morning. Area remains in northwest flow aloft with a broad area of upper diffluence along with mid level warm advection remaining in place. Storms have developed over northern Nebraska and will continue to push south overnight with some additional development also possible ahead of it. This activity should get into our forecast area in the 10-14z time frame with low confidence on how widespread they will be or what exact track they will take. So for now, just ran with Prob30s at all sites around or shortly after sunrise. Outside of storms, VFR conditions are anticipated. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...RBL  357 FXUS64 KMAF 220649 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 149 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 147 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Hot temperatures continue through the forecast period with little to no chance of rain. - Drink plenty of fluids and seek shade frequently as heat illnesses due to prolonged exposure to heat may occur. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 147 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Very little change in the forecast this weekend with the "heat dome" in full control. Highs continue to climb around a degree a day as the upper ridge settles directly overhead. Temperatures will reach around 105 for locations like Snyder, Big Spring, and Colorado City where the Heat Risk will reach the Extreme category. This means that without proper hydration or adequate cooling, even healthy people are at risk of heat exhaustion or worse. Strongly consider canceling outdoor activities in the afternoon and stay hydrated. Take breaks in the air-conditioning as fans will not be adequate in this type of heat. A Heat Advisory has been issued and will likely be extended into next week and possibly expanded west with time. Showers and storms are expected to develop to our north this evening around LUB. These could drift south this evening, but will likely be dissipating by the time they enter our area. Gusty, outflow winds are still possible though. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 147 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The upper ridge will flatten early next week, but remain directly over our region. This will bring the peak of the current heat wave Monday/Tuesday with nearly all locations at or above 100 degrees. Heat Advisories may be expanded during this time as the heat wave enters a week in duration. The ridge shifts west late in the week helping decrease temperatures by a few degrees. Northwest flow will develop aloft and could bring in a few storms from the TX Panhandle. Right now, rain chances remain low (<30%), with the best chances across the northern Permian Basin Thursday/Friday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR continues through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 104 76 104 76 / 0 10 0 0 Carlsbad 101 72 101 73 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 102 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 100 73 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 93 69 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 100 71 100 72 / 0 10 0 0 Marfa 94 63 94 63 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 101 75 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 100 75 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 102 74 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for Borden-Howard-Mitchell-Scurry. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...29  421 FXUS61 KLWX 220651 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC Issued by National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 251 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Update on the current showers developing over southern MD and the VA Piedmont. Flooding threat remains limited, but will need to be monitored closely as the axis of heavier rain sets up throughout the morning. Also updated aviation and marine discussions substantially to add more details on today's setup. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Showers and thunderstorms today with the potential for heavy rainfall and isolated instances of flash flooding. - 2) Dry conditions anticipated Sunday through early next week. - 3) Warmer and more humid conditions return mid-week, with thunderstorm chances returning by Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and thunderstorms today with the potential for heavy rainfall and isolated instances of flash flooding. Latest surface analysis still depicts a stalled frontal boundary off to our south and east. Satellite imagery depicts an influx of moisture into the region east of an approaching upper trough axis. We are starting to see some heavier showers develop in the right entrance region of a 90 knot upper-level jet. Low pressure is developing over the Carolina, but remains very loosely developed at this stage. At any rate, all of these features are expected to evolve throughout the day, giving a continuous threat for showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon hours. The latest SPC mesoanalysis is starting to hone in on an area generally southeast of the I-95 corridor. PWATs in this region remain in the 1.6-1.8 inch range, with a decent overlap of low- level moisture convergence and PPP. Current forecast calls for 1-2" somewhere along/southeast of I-95, but could see some locally higher amounts. As it stands right now, the region of concern should fall just southeast of the metro areas. Sandy soils and antecedent low soil moisture in this region should mitigate the flooding threat. However, the one exception will be if the heaviest axis either shifts north into St. Marys county, where recent heavy rains leave that area slightly more susceptible to flooding. Additionally, if the axis does shift north into the metros, flash flooding could become an issue. No flood watch at this time, as confidence remains higher that the highest rain totals will fall in less susceptible areas. If that changes, one may be considered later this morning. During the late morning and early afternoon hours there could be a lull, but there remains a chance for pop-up showers and storms pretty much anywhere during this period. By evening, another round of showers and thunderstorms will approach the Appalachian Mountains and may make to areas east of the Blue Ridge Mountains overnight into early Sunday. Severe threat is low with these, as they will be running into stable surface air. However, they could bring some heavy rainfall and thunder. Some fog may then develop in the valleys and VA Piedmont, but it will have to do so prior to the arrival of the front. By Sunday morning the cold front will be crossing the area with dry air advection ensuing in strengthening NW winds. However, there could still be enough moisture and lift to spark a few showers, but overall drying conditions are expected throughout the day. KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry conditions anticipated Sunday through early next week. Dewpoints drop sharply in the wake of the cold front Monday as dry air moves into the region from the Midwest. Surface high pressure will begin to build over the Appalachians and track east over the next couple of days, with conditions feeling briefly fall-like as temperatures range slightly below average for August. Overnight lows range largely in the 50s throughout the region by Tuesday, and sub-60F dewpoints could persist until midweek. KEY MESSAGE 3...Warmer and more humid conditions return mid- week, with thunderstorm chances returning by Thursday. As the week continues, a broad upper-level trough will begin to form over the Great Lakes and track towards the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday. As the associated surface low approaches the region, moist air from the south will flow into the area, bringing back an increase in humidity & temperatures back to late-August normals. As this low tracks through, expect shower & thunderstorm chances to increase as the associated cold front tracks offshore by the end of the week. Medium-range severe indices still maintain a low-end non-zero chance for stronger convection as this front moves through. Temperatures rise back into the upper 80s by Thursday. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low pressure tracking along a stalled boundary to our southeast will push showers and some embedded storms into the region later this morning. Still lots of uncertainty with just how much rain falls and how intense any showers will be that reach the terminals. Low clouds will also be an issue, which makes restrictions likely. Though, if the showers and up being less intense, it is possible that conditions remain low-end MVFR rather than dropping to IFR. Latest TAFs reflect some uncertainty there, with areas further east a bit more likely than those to the west. Another low pressure system over the Great Lakes region will push a cold front through the region later tonight. This will bring another line of shower and storms along with it, persisting through the early overnight hours. This could bring another period of restrictions. In the wake of the rain, fog is expected to develop at CHO and probably MRB as well Sunday morning. It is possible it could creep into IAD as well. Predominantly VFR conditions are anticipated across terminals Sunday through Wednesday. Winds on Sunday through Tuesday remain out of the WNW to NW, gusting up to 20 knots during the afternoon hours (except CHO which will be 5 to 8 knots lower). Beginning Wednesday afternoon, winds shift out of the south, but should be a bit weaker. Additionally, a few showers and thunderstorms become possible ahead of an approaching cold front that could bring temporarily reduced conditions into the evening and perhaps overnight hours. && .MARINE... Easterly winds expected today around 5 to 10 knots with gusts up to 15 knots as low pressure slides by to our southeast. SCA conditions are not expected, however any heavier showers or storms could bring down gusts around 20 to 25 knots at times throughout the day. These would likely come in short bursts, and should be few and far between. Another line of showers and storms moves in late tonight, but again should not bring any substantial wind gusts as we will be stable. Winds turn out of the WNW Sunday through Tuesday, and should remain sub-SCA throughout that period. A few gusts near 18 knots are possible, especially further north, but not seeing a prolonged period enough to warrant an SCA at this time. Winds shift southerly by Wednesday, with winds gusting above SCA thresholds later that evening in a classic southerly channeling event ahead of an approaching cold front. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CJL/SRT AVIATION...CJL/SRT MARINE...CJL/SRT  525 FXUS65 KVEF 220654 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1154 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Above normal temperatures continue through next week. * Isolated storm chances linger into early next week, with best chances in northwestern Arizona and the southern Great Basin. && .DISCUSSION...through Friday. Ensemble guidance keeps the ridge of high pressure centered generally over southern NM through the forecast period. Any "cooling" that would otherwise result from subtle height falls will largely be offset by increased vertical mixing thanks to the southwest flow aloft. As a result, temperatures remain fairly steady with just a subtle cooldown possible Monday and Tuesday as moisture tries to creep back into the southeastern half of the CWA. Latest forecast has highs 2-8 degrees above normal, with the greatest anomalies across the eastern half of the area (closer to the high). Overnight lows remain relatively oppressive across the Mojave Desert as values range from 80-92 degrees. This keeps major heatrisk in Death Valley, the Las Vegas Valley, the Colorado River Valley, and southern Mohave County through Sunday. After the subtle reprieve on Monday-Tuesday, major to extreme heatrisk looks to return to these locations. A shortwave moving into the PacNW will reshape the ridge, resulting in a transition from southerly to more southwesterly flow overhead. This will reduce moisture across most of the CWA and promote more isolated convective activity through the weekend. Best chances (10- 20%) across the southern Great Basin and northwestern AZ. An influx of moisture early next week may spur increased coverage across our southeastern areas, but uncertainty remains. From mid-week and beyond, moisture drops back down and stays at modest levels, at best promoting isolated storm chances in northwestern AZ. Given the limited moisture, main concerns with any convection will be gusty outflow winds and dry lightning. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package... Expect south-southeasterly winds around 8kts through the night before weakening and becoming light and variable by the early morning. Southerly winds arrive in the late morning with breezier south winds arrive in the mid afternoon and stay through the evening. Gusts cut off after sunset as winds turn southwesterly and reduce. Temperatures look to break 100 degrees shortly after 17z, peak at 00z, and cool below 100 shortly before 04z. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds are reducing for all but KDAG which stays gusty until the late night. Wind look to stay light through the night and much of the morning. Gustier winds arrive in the afternoon with peak gusts above 20kts possible. Passing showers will affect the valley into the afternoon but exit in the late afternoon. Gusts at KDAG arrive slightly later in the early evening and look to last into the late night while the rest of the TAF sites see gusts cut off and winds lighten. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Woods AVIATION...Murdock For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  510 FXUS66 KOTX 220654 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1154 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory has been extended for Northeastern WA and North Idaho for Saturday. - Saturday system brings increased chances for showers, thunderstorms, and gusty winds. This will lead to critical fire weather conditions across the Inland Northwest. - Patchy blowing dust is possible Saturday in the Western Columbia Basin. && .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will be very warm Friday with widespread Major HeatRisk. A pattern change Friday night into Saturday will bring unsettled conditions with chances for showers, thunderstorms, and gusty winds. Sunday will remain breezy and dry, but cooler. Temperatures will warm again at the start of next week with breezy conditions returning by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Friday through Sunday: An incoming cold front will bring gusty winds and isolated to scattered thunderstorms to the region Saturday into Sunday. Today, ahead of the cold front passage on Saturday, temperatures have warmed into the high 90s with triple digits possible in the lower Basin. This has led to widespread Major HeatRisk values, so anyone without adequate cooling and hydration as well as health systems and industries could see impacts. A Heat Advisory is valid through much of the Inland Northwest through 10 PM this evening and low temperatures into tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s and provide little overnight relief. Tonight into Saturday, moisture advection ahead of the frontal passage will raise PWATs to 125 to 150 percent of normal, around 0.75 to 1 inch. The arrival of the cold front on Saturday accompanied by a 40-50kt 500mb jet and warm overnight and daytime temperatures will create a favorable environment for isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Cascades and northern mountains. While these showers will initially start out as isolated in nature, as daytime warming increases, thunderstorms become more scattered in nature, especially into Saturday afternoon and evening. With PWATs near 1 inch and DCAPE values 500 J/kg and higher, main impacts look to be isolated heavy rainfall rates, gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph, and lightning induced fire starts. Steep terrain and burn scars will need to be monitored for any heavy rainfall rates. This threat will move eastward across the forecast area through the day, and Saturday night into Sunday morning the ID Panhandle sees isolated to scattered thunderstorms. To reflect these critical fire weather conditions, Red Flag Warnings have been issued. For the Cascades and northern mountains, the Red Flag Warning is valid from Saturday morning through Sunday morning. For the ID Panhandle, the Red Flag Warning is valid from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Another impact from this cold front will be gusty winds leading to critical fire weather concerns across the Basin and Spokane area. There is a 40 percent chance and higher for most locations in the region to see wind gusts higher than 30 mph on Saturday night. Areas that will see the highest gusts include the Lewiston, Moses Lake, Wenatchee, and Waterville Plateau areas. A Red Flag Warning for the basin, Palouse, and Spokane areas is valid from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening. Potential impacts from these winds include rapid spreading of wildfires alongside blowing objects and difficulties driving, especially for high profile vehicles. While models initially had the low moving out of the area quicker, there is now better agreement that the low lingers over the state of Washington through Sunday before moving out of the area Sunday night into Monday. Impacts will continue to be seen into Sunday afternoon with residual winds and isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the northern Idaho Panhandle. One thing to keep a close eye on is the extent of the thunderstorms post cold frontal passage on Sunday morning. As high-res models pick up the end of the event Sunday morning, they are showing enough lingering instability throughout fire zone 708 (Eastern Columbia Basin/Palouse/Spokane area) that it may need to be added into the Red Flag Warning. Wind gusts around 15- 20 mph will linger throughout the Cascade gaps, Okanogan Valley, Waterville Plateau, Columbia Basin, Spokane/CdA, and Palouse areas through late Sunday afternoon, bringing continued elevated fire weather conditions. A significant cooldown due to the cold front will be observed Saturday into Sunday, with high temperatures dropping around ten or more degrees. Temperatures will end up being a couple degrees below normal on Sunday. Apart from the northern mountains and Cascades, precipitation chances drop down to near zero. Monday through Wednesday: With high confidence (80 percent of clusters) indicating a strengthening ridge building over the area early next week, the temperature drop will be short lived. By Tuesday, temperatures will again warm into the high 80s to low 90s. Clusters show a 50 percent chance of another trough approaching the PNW coast, though timing and track are uncertain. This could lead to a return of gusty winds and thunderstorm chances. Overall chances for precipitation remain low, with PoPs 15 percent and lower expected Monday through Wednesday. /AS && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFs: An influx of midlevel moisture will bring a 10-30% chance for shower and 5-10% chance for lightning strikes between 06-13z. Brief, gusty, erratic outflow winds around 20 mph will accompany this activity. As this clears, a renewed threat for convection will start in the North Cascades after 19z then expand into the Idaho Panhandle, Eastern WA, and Northern WA 23-06z. Any cells will be capable of strong outflow winds near 50 mph. Confidence is too low for TS in the TAF but there is a 10-20% chance around 00z for KLWS-KPUW-KGEG-KSFF-KCOE. Vsbys at KEAT will degrade this evening around 07-08z as northwest winds bring in smoke from the Little Giant Fire. South to southwest winds will increase in the Columbia Basin, Palouse, and Spokane area in the late morning to early afternoon and shift to west in the evening at KEAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low confidence for TS at terminals but moderate confidence for outflow winds to impact most terminals with speeds of at least 20-30 mph. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 68 94 59 82 54 87 / 10 10 20 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 68 95 60 81 53 86 / 10 10 40 0 0 0 Pullman 62 91 51 78 46 86 / 10 10 30 0 0 0 Lewiston 72 98 62 87 59 92 / 10 10 40 0 0 0 Colville 60 95 52 81 45 87 / 10 10 40 10 0 0 Sandpoint 62 93 56 77 47 83 / 10 20 40 10 0 0 Kellogg 63 92 55 77 52 84 / 10 10 40 0 0 0 Moses Lake 69 95 56 85 54 89 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 76 94 63 83 62 88 / 20 20 0 0 0 0 Omak 71 96 56 85 56 88 / 10 20 20 10 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area- Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County. Red Flag Warning from 4 PM Saturday to 11 AM PDT Sunday for Selkirk Mountains of Northeast Washington (Zone 700). Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM PDT Saturday for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern Columbia Basin -Palouse - Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone 701)-Lower Palouse -Snake River (Zone 709)- Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). Air Quality Alert until 2 PM PDT Monday for Central Chelan County-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 8 AM PDT Sunday for East Portion of North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan National Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696)-East Washington North Cascades (Zone 698)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Highlands and Kettle Mountains (Zone 699)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703). ID...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d'Alene Area-Idaho Palouse- Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area- Northern Panhandle. Red Flag Warning from 4 PM Saturday to 11 AM PDT Sunday for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101). && $$  637 FXUS62 KCHS 220656 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 256 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections have been updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Increased showers and storms will possible through today capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Increased showers and storms will possible through today capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. A rather large upper trough centered over the Great Lakes will continue its slow drift east today into Sunday as several embedded shortwaves pivot through the broader flow. At the surface our slow moving front will encroach on the coastal areas by this afternoon and likely be the focus for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The first shortwave is currently moving across the area right now will some scattered showers and storms occurring across the coastal areas and offshore waters. This shortwave should move out of the area by daybreak setting the stage for the afternoon. The final shortwave should swing into the area by mid-afternoon resulting in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms likely beginning east of I-95 and closer to the coastline than yesterday. Overall severe threat looks minimal with these storms with rather poor surface heating (high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s) coupled with rather deep moist profiles with PWATs approaching 2.1 to 2.2 inches. While a strong wind gust cannot be ruled out the overall potential should be rather muted compared to say yesterday. The bigger issue may become heavy rainfall. Given the aforementioned moisture profiles, coupled with weak deep layer flow, storms will be rather efficient rain producers and some localized heavy rainfall certainly cannot be ruled out. This is backed by some of the high-res ensemble guidance which supports some 3 hourly totals in the 2 to 4 inch range. For most of the area these totals won't be too much of an issue, there could be a focus along and near the coastal cities that tend to not handle heavy rain rates as well as interior areas. We will certainly have to see how things go this afternoon, but would not be surprised if a few spots might see some localized minor flooding. Sunday Onward: The aforementioned upper trough will finally move far enough east to usher in some drier air into the area by Sunday into Monday. With drier air in place and the surface boundary pushed offshore, rain chances should remain low through Monday. However, moisture should begin to recover starting Tuesday and into the middle of the week with a return to more typical summertime pattern setting up. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 22/06z TAFs: VFR conditions prevail throughout the remainder of the night. Scattered showers have begun to develop along the immediate coastline and some temporary MVFR conditions could be possible at JZI and CHS over the next few hours as showers move through the area. Winds will be light out of the southwest throughout the day. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop along the coastline this afternoon possibly resulting in temporary reductions at all area terminals. Storms look most likely near CHS/JZI before subsiding during the early evening. Extended Aviation Outlook: Thunderstorms will again be a concern Saturday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. && .MARINE... Today through Thursday: Marine conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period. A fairly typical summertime pattern on tap. Generally expect south to southwest winds averaging in the 10-15 knot range with gusts to 20 kt at times and seas 2 to 3 feet. Any showers or thunderstorms that move over the waters have the potential to bring higher wind gusts and frequent lightning. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: August 24: KCHS: 76/2010 KCXM: 80/1975 August 25: KCHS: 77/1982 August 27: KCHS: 78/2011 August 28: KCHS: 77/2020 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Black/ETM  642 FXUS62 KGSP 220656 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 256 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A slight increase in PoPs today, and a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms has been added to most of the NC mountains this afternoon and evening. Aviation discussion was updated for the 06z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon through early evening, mainly near the Blue Ridge Escarpment and in the mountains near the Tennessee border later this evening. A few storms may become severe, with damaging wind gusts being the main threat. 2. Drier weather returns Sunday through early next week, with afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances returning by midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon through early evening, mainly near the Blue Ridge Escarpment and in the mountains near the Tennessee border later this evening. A few storms may become severe, with damaging wind gusts being the main threat. Convection has finally waned, leaving plenty of stratus that will linger thru mid to late morning. A digging upper trough over the western Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley will increase NWLY bulk shear across the Ohio Valley and into the Southern Appalachians later today. Drier air is starting to filter in behind yesterday's frontal passage, but enough moisture will remain to allow for at least isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon across the mountains and adjacent foothills. The latest CAMs are not too excited about coverage or intensity with this activity. The bigger concern may be with anything that develops upstream over the Ohio Valley. Some of the CAMs show loosely organized multicell clusters diving SE toward the NC mountains. There is some concern that some of these storms could be strong to severe as they cross the TN/NC line this evening. The new Day 1 Convective Outlook has expanded a marginal risk into the NC mountains to account for this potential. Whether any of this would survive east of the mountains remains in doubt. CIN should be increasing this evening, and MUCAPE will be decreasing. Despite this, some of the CAMs, along with the ECMWF and Canadian, suggest some activity may track into the NC NW Piedmont late evening. The NBM PoPs do not reflect this, and are on the low side overall. Otherwise, it should be a typical late August day with highs near normal with muggy dewpts. Key message 2: Drier weather returns Sunday through early next week, with afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances returning by midweek. An upper low closes off over the Great Lakes Sunday, then wobbles slowly east into Quebec thru the first half of next week. This will result in a deep trough axis persisting roughly along the Appalachians to the East Coast, which will put the forecast area in a drier W/NW flow pattern. Dewpts should dip into the 50s to lower 60s Sunday and Monday, combined with temps in the 80s will be a refreshing break from the hot, humid weather we've been experiencing. The pattern will gradually modify, with another trough digging into the Midwest and allowing return flow to bring moisture back into the region by the middle of next week. Some diurnal convection may return Tuesday and Wednesday, then more substantial coverage of convective activity on Thursday with an approaching cold front from the NW. Temps will remain near normal thru the week, but humidity will gradually increase, with dewpts back into the upper 60s to lower 70s by Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Lingering showers continue to develop across the mountains and adjacent foothills near the Blue Ridge escarpment and may affect KAVL over the next couple of hours. Otherwise, a downward trend is expected with IFR stratus filling in across the entire area by daybreak. Some guidance is hinting at widespread vsby restrictions, with patchy IFR fog. Confidence remains low on fog, but cigs will likely be IFR thru mid-morning, then lift and scatter out to VFR by around midday. Isolated to widely scattered convection may develop again this aftn, mainly along the Escarpment. Only KGSP and KGMU have high enough confidence to add a PROB30 for some TSRA in the roughly 20-24z time frame. There is about a 20% chance of some TS around KCLT, so not high enough to mention in the TAF at this time. Drier air filters in Saturday night, which should keep most fog and stratus potential to the mountain valleys. Winds will be light thru the period, mainly out of the SW east of the mountains and NNW at KAVL. Outlook: No significant chance of convection until Wednesday. Mountain valley fog and low stratus is possible each morning. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ ARK  638 FXUS65 KBOU 220656 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1256 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat eases, along with an increase in shower and storm coverage this weekend. - Highest coverage of showers and storms expected Saturday, along with a few severe storms on the plains Saturday and then again Sunday. - Gradual drying next week, but continued storm chances through at least Wednesday or Thursday. Slight cooling but temperatures still above normal. && .DISCUSSION /Through Friday/... Issued at 1258 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 It's a hot one today with temperatures early this afternoon already in mid to upper 90s along the I-25 Corridor, and approaching records in some spots (Denver's record is 99F set in 2023). There was some slight relief over the northeast plains due to outflow from earlier Nebraska convection, so temperatures have been running a few degrees below expectations there. Given the strong surface heating and steep low/mid level lapse rates along the Front Range, we are seeing high based convection develop. These will be capable of producing strong microburst winds as DCAPE has grown into the 1400-1600 J/kg range. Meanwhile, farther east the low level moisture is holding steady with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s in the easterly flow. While this easterly surge is expected to weaken during peak heating, it will provide for higher instability and a richer storm environment should storms be able to fire. Thus, a couple severe storms will be possible through this evening over the northeast plains given MLCAPE of 1200-2000 J/kg and bulk shear near 30 kts. For Saturday, monsoonal moisture will increase as the upper level ridge axis tilts ever so slowly eastward. Precipitable water values are forecast to reach near 150% of normal. However, the airmass is quite warm so we think most storms that originate over the mountains and then push onto the I-25 Corridor in the afternoon will still be relatively high based, and thus mostly outflow dominated. We think the majority of the storms with more widespread and beneficial rains will develop just east of the I-25 Corridor where outflows intersect with a richer low level environment. That's where HREF ensembles show higher concentration of stronger storms. Locally heavy rain totals upwards of 1.5-2 inches will be possible there, and potentially the Palmer Divide, based on the environment and HREF Local Probability Matched Means (LPMM). Meanwhile, there will also be a threat of a few severe storms as MLCAPE once again grows to 1200-2000 J/kg and bulk shear of 25-35 kts is forecast. For Sunday, there is good agreement that the mid and upper levels will dry slightly as a more westerly component develops under a flattening ridge. Thus, storm coverage should decrease a little, in the absence of any forcing mechanisms. A few severe storms will once again be possible across the plains as we expect sufficient low level moisture and instability, with the greatest risk once again hovering just east of the I-25 Corridor. For much of next week, deterministic forecasts and ensembles are averaging toward flat ridging and weak westerly flow aloft. That likely keeps us too zonal for deep monsoonal moisture, but just enough for scattered storms most afternoons and evening. While individual model runs vary, there is still potential for a weak backdoor cool front or two. They will offer up very little in the way of cooling, but should keep us a few degrees "cooler" (mostly lower 90s for highs on the plains and I-25 Corridor) versus the full on summer heat experienced today. Ensembles are supportive of a decrease in precipitable water (PW) by the end of next week, which would support less, or only isolated, storm possibilities and a return of much above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday/... Issued at 609 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Storms are starting to move out of the vicinity of the TAF sites, but we can't rule out the possibility of more updrafts and gusty winds in the next few hours, especially with the current showers to the south and west sending out outflows. Because there's been so many scattered storms across the metro area, confidence is low as to where the winds will be in a few hours. Models show varying wind directions, though observations would suggest an easterly component. Of course, any further convection or outflows could shift the wind in variable directions. After storms move out of the area to the east, winds should start turning towards drainage, getting there by around 02Z and staying generally S/SW overnight. Winds turn northward again in the morning, around 15/16Z, and staying north/northeast until storms start to move through in the afternoon. Current model guidance has more moisture in the environment tomorrow afternoon than we had today, and the CAMs remain in fairly good agreement on convection initiating around 22Z and lasting through 06Z on Sunday. DCAPE values in the most recent model runs also look to have increased from previous runs, so gusty outflows will most likely be a concern for tomorrow's storms, as well. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday/... Issued at 1221 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 An outflow from severe storms over northeastern Colorado has pushed across KDEN/KBJC turning winds to the north. The boundary as slowed down as it passed over KDEN airfield that might keep it from reaching KAPA, but for now it has at least slowed it down from what is in the current TAF. With the upslope winds, weak showers are starting to develop around the TAF sites. Have introduced a PROB30 at KDEN/KAPA until 8Z to account for any gusty winds that may be produced if these can hold together before winds can make their way back to drainage in the next few hours. Expect some sort of southeast to south transition over the next few hours at KDEN while drainage tries to reestablish. Drainage winds are expected to turn around the clock and land to the northeast across all TAF sites by early this afternoon (17-18Z). Greater storm coverage is expected this afternoon compared to yesterday, with storms expected to move off the higher elevations between 20-22Z and continue through late tonight (5-6Z). Gusty winds are expected with passing storms, with gusts between 35-45 kts possible, but can't rule out a severe storm passing over or near the TAF sites. Storms are expected to be high-based, with guidance showing CIG staying above 9,000 feet AGL. Like today, can't rule out an outflow or two making their way across the TAF sites after storms have diminished that could disrupt or delay drainage winds from taking hold. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...9  715 FXUS61 KCAR 220658 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 258 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Changed precipitation to stratiform for tonight into Sunday AM due to the overrunning warm front setup. - Added isolated thunder across the coastal waters and far Downeast later tonight on the NE forward side of the coastal low pressure system. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Widespread rain tonight into Monday will help ease ongoing drought conditions in some areas. Rain may be heavy at times tonight into Sunday, especially across Downeast Maine. 2) Upper level low pressure keeps the chance of showers going into midweek, especially across Northern Maine. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread rain tonight into Monday will help ease ongoing drought conditions in some areas. Rain may be heavy at times tonight into Sunday, especially across Downeast Maine. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A surface low pressure system developing off the Mid Atlantic coast this morning will progress north today into the Gulf of Maine. As a warm front lifts north ahead of the low expecting overrunning rainfall to develop into the region late this afternoon into tonight. The CAMs are starting to hone in on the best path of the steady rain and a good timing. Expect rain to begin along the coast late afternoon into the evening and push NNE through tonight. The question for tonight will be how much rainfall will occur, especially for areas in the north. Unfortunately, there remains significant differences in the ensembles as of this update. Models do agree the PWATs tonight with this surge of moisture on the warm front increases to 1.3-1.8 inches which is 140-180% of normal. Potential exists for 0.5-1 inch of rain tonight in Washington County with significantly less rainfall north and west. However, confidence in low to moderate on where the heaviest rain will be. Any rainfall will be helpful to ongoing drought conditions given that we will be in a cloudy cool pattern for the next couple days. This will allow for rainfall to get into the soils, unlikely to help streamflows which are significantly below normal. After midnight, the center of the low will be over Downeast and becomes absorbed by the approaching occluded front from the west and a vertically stacked low pressure system. The low centered over the Great Lakes will progress E over New England. By Sunday, expect widespread showers continuing throughout the day. Modeled PWATs increase to 1.8-2.2 inches since we will be within a warm sector and significant moisture advection from the tropical Atlantic. Given the 160-180% of normal PWATs (95-99th percentile) and showers may produce heavy at time rainfall. Showers will be more convective during the day so uncertain where the beneficial rainfall will occur. Then throughout Sunday night, the low becomes stationary over Quebec as it rotates the moisture through the state. By Monday, the low begins to gradually move north which will decrease rain chances throughout the day. However, best chance of showers and thunderstorms will be in the northern 1/2 of the CWA closer to the vertically stacked low in Quebec. KEY MESSAGE 2...Upper level low pressure keeps the chance of showers going into midweek, especially across Northern Maine. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... There remains blocking in the North Atlantic (-NAO) into the end of August. Upper level low pressure to our north in Quebec continues to slowly drift east towards the Maritimes. Partly to mostly sunny skies with cool pool aloft on Tuesday will lead to significant cu build up especially in the northern 2/3rd of the CWA. Expecting some daytime instability, around 500j/kg of SBCAPE, so widespread showers and some thunderstorms are expected to develop. Verylittle if any showers expected south of The Airline (Route 9). The upper level low north of the Gaspe Peninsula on Wednesday will reduce the precip chances to just northern Maine and mostly dry elsewhere with highs getting to 2-5 degrees above normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Rest of Tonight (Through 12z)...VFR. BCFG or low ground FG may reduce vsby at PQI, HUL. Low confidence in vsby reductions at CAR and FVE along with BGR and BHB. Winds light and variable. Today...Mainly VFR with high cigs. Late this afternoon BHB/BGR becoming MVFR with increasing cigs. VCSH/RA develops from S to N late day. E-SE winds 5-10kt. Tonight: Becoming IFR or lower at all terminals in rain. E-SE winds G15-20KT possible. Sunday-Monday: IFR or lower likely. Slight chance for thunderstorms Sunday night and again Monday afternoon. S-SW winds G15-20KT possible Monday. Monday night-Wednesday: MVFR or lower likely at northern terminals. MVFR possible at KBGR, with VFR likely at KBHB. LLWS possible Monday night. W-NW winds G15-20KT possible Wednesday. && .MARINE... Winds generally below 20 kt through Saturday night, though east winds approach 25 kt over 25-60NM waters Saturday afternoon/evening. Seas build to 2-4 ft with highest seas over the waters from 25-60nm Saturday evening. Patchy fog and rain may reduce visibilities to 1-3NM. Slight chance of winds or seas reaching 25 kts/5 ft Monday- Tuesday. Fog likely the next few nights. A chance for thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JS AVIATION...JS  739 FXUS62 KILM 220659 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 259 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Discussions updated. A renewed risk for flash flooding will concentrate around the Wilmington metro this morning to midday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Heavy thunderstorms capable of isolated flash flooding remain possible today, mainly near the coast. 2) Near-normal temperatures expected in the long-term with low rain chances for Sunday/Monday increasing midweek. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Heavy thunderstorms capable of isolated flash flooding remain possible today, mainly near the coast. A stalled front offshore will lift back towards the coast early this morning as a surface mesolow and attendant mid-level vort max tracks northeastward along it. This mesolow is expected to pass near Cape Fear in the mid-late morning hours, bringing a renewed threat for heavy thunderstorms and flash flooding, especially over the Wilmington metro area. Behind this mesolow, heating of a moist airmass and additional impulses moving around the broader trough in the jet stream should aid in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, particularly along the sea breeze. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible near the immediate coast and offshore tonight as impulses aloft interact with instability over the very warm ocean. However, if sufficient outflow pushes offshore this afternoon, the threat along the coast will be lowered. KEY MESSAGE 2...Near-normal temperatures expected in the long-term with low rain chances for Sunday/Monday increasing midweek. Another cold front is expected to be push in from the northwest Sunday afternoon, keeping a chance for isolated to perhaps scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly along the coast. A period of mostly dry weather appears likely on Monday with the front stalling offshore. However, as the flow aloft becomes westerly to northwesterly around midweek and the stalled front lingering over or near the area, additional impulses and waves of low pressure are poised to bring periods of showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday onward, with the best chances for more widespread rain currently focused on Thursday into Friday. Of course, given this is multiple days away, the chances for rain will likely fluctuate in the coming days as smaller-scale details are worked out. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... While most TAF sites are presently VFR, guidance tools, some area AWOS observations, and satellite imagery are adamant that inland terminals (KFLO and KLBT) should see IFR to LIFR cig restrictions develop early this morning before gradually lifting through the morning hours. Near the coast, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to affect the terminals with IFR to LIFR cigs and vis possible at times, mainly this morning with lower chances this afternoon. Otherwise, expect a gradual return to prevailing VFR by around midday with additional showers and storms possible, mainly near the coast, this afternoon along the sea breeze, bringing transient vis restrictions to the coastal terminals. Outside of any showers or storms, expect VFR to continue through 06Z. Extended Forecast... Mostly VFR expected with a low to moderate risk for cig/vsby restrictions late Sat night/early Sun, mainly inland at KLBT/KFLO. Low risk for transient restrictions from showers/storms Sun/Mon with a bit better risk Tue/Wed, especially near the coast. && .MARINE... Today through Wednesday... Expect generally south to southwest winds to prevail through the period as an approaching cold front stalls near the coast. No headlines are expected as winds peak around 15-20 kts over Saturday night and wave heights stay around 3 ft or less within 20 nmi and up to 4 ft in the 20-60 nmi zones, highest this weekend. The biggest marine impact will likely be from scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the waters through the weekend as a front stalls near the coast. There will likely be several rounds of storms, accompanied by reduced visibility and possible gusty winds. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ABW KEY MESSAGES...ABW DISCUSSION...ABW AVIATION...ABW MARINE...ABW  701 FXUS63 KGRR 220658 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 258 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered Showers/Storms Press East Today - Cooler and Breezy Sunday into Monday - Midweek Rain Chances && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Scattered Showers/Storms Press East Today Prefrontal scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed in a weakly sheared environment with MUCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg. This activity was best depicted by the 00z HRRR, though several of the CAMs have had at least somewhat of a clue. While many areas will completely avoid rain into the morning hours, small pockets of 0.25" or more are possible mainly near and west of US 131 where elevated instability is present. As the cold front moves into the region in the 12z-15z time frame, rain chances will press east with the front, and by 18z much if not all of the showers/storms will push east of US 127. One exception may be a few showers and storms that develop along the lakeshore after 21z underneath a post-frontal vort lobe that swings through the U.P. and WI, helping generate some precip over Lake Michigan given a somewhat more unstable boundary layer. NBM is not really picking up on this, but we may need to introduce POPs along the lakeshore for the evening hours depending on upstream convective trends this afternoon. - Cooler and Breezy Sunday into Monday Anomalous upper troughing, as indicated by the 00z ECWMF's 500mb height anomalies of ~3 standard deviations below normal across the Great Lakes on Sunday, will assuredly cause cold air advection in the lower levels and also enhance surface wind speeds Sunday into Monday. Normal highs are in the low 80s, but we should max out around 70 to the low 70s on Sunday and maybe a touch warmer Monday. Wind gusts of 25 mph or greater are likely on Sunday, with gusts of 20 mph or greater likely on Monday. - Midweek Rain Chances Upper troughing returns in the Wednesday to Thursday time frame, with some weak upper jet divergence moving in. At the surface, a cold front is shown by model guidance to move through the Great Lakes. This system will not be tapping Gulf moisture, and the low and mid level winds don't look strong at this time. Still, there will be an opportunity for some scattered showers and storms with timing better pinned down as we get closer to this event. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 140 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 As well depicted by the 00z HRRR, a batch of showers and a few thunderstorms developed over Lake Michigan between 04z-05z and were moving east. With weak shear, this activity will tend to wax and wane through 10z or so, with some periods of IFR most probable at GRR. Given cell movement, felt most confident to put TEMPO in for -TSRA at GRR through 10z. With a cold front passing through around 12z, expect a wind shift to occur with SW winds turning NW through mid morning. Rain chances decrease from west to east, with LAN/JXN the last to clear out potentially as late as 18z or so. && .MARINE... Issued at 258 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 As a cold front moves through the region today, winds will turn NW after 12z with a good fetch over the lake. With cold air advection taking place today into Sunday, this will be a setup for hazardous winds and waves to small craft and also hazardous swim conditions especially south of Pentwater today and then all areas on Sunday. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements are in effect for all marine areas starting 8am today and lasting through Sunday evening. The north sides of piers will be especially dangerous, and piers may be swamped by waves. Sunday will likely feature the highest wave activity with 4 to 6 feet expected. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through Sunday evening for MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hoving AVIATION...Hoving MARINE...Hoving  737 FXUS63 KJKL 220659 AAC AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 259 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another cold front will bring a possibility of showers and thunderstorms to the area today. - Some storms on Saturday afternoon and evening could produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts and even some hail. - Noticeably cooler and less humid air will then arrive to start the new week, with mainly dry weather. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026 No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones. UPDATE Issued at 725 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026 23Z sfc analysis shows weak high pressure over eastern Kentucky and this is working to keep the winds light and clear the skies as the isolated showers continue to fade out. Currently, temperatures are running in the upper 70s to low 80s with some valleys reporting mid 70s. Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds, dewpoints are in the mid 60s to lower 70s - highest and stickiest south. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids but also to drop the PoPs off through the rest of the evening and overnight. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 330 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026 Puffy cumulus are bubbling up across eastern Kentucky this afternoon, with a few of them maturing into widely scattered showers and even a few isolated thunderstorms. That aside, temperatures are on the mild side for late August, with readings ranging in the low to mid 80s outside of convection. At the surface, a weak wave of low pressure is traversing far southeast Kentucky along a wavy cold frontal boundary. Aloft, 500 hPa troughing is in place over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with an embedded vort max just upstream over central Kentucky. A second notable 500 hPa vort max is dropping into the trough from northwestern Ontario. It is attended by a weak surface low over Lake Superior from which a cold front sweeps out an arc, first southwestward to along the Iowa/Nebraska border and then west-northwest to along the northern Rockies. The ongoing isolated to scattered convection is likely to increase slightly in coverage over the next hour or two before gradually diminishing with the loss of daytime heating as we head through the evening. As the wavy frontal boundary finally sinks well south of the area, clearing skies, light winds, and ample moisture will set the stage for renewed radiational fog formation overnight, especially in typical sheltered valley locations, though at least patchy fog may develop elsewhere. It will be seasonable, with temperatures dipping back into the mid 60s in most spots. Looking ahead to Saturday, the second vort max will carve a deeper parent trough as it presses into the Lower and Mid-Ohio Valley. This will be attended by the surface cold front, which is currently favored in short-range model guidance to pass through eastern Kentucky during the ~5 PM to midnight timeframe. Ahead of this boundary and upper-level disturbance, strengthening flow aloft will yield 30 to 40 kts of EBWD while good heating is favored to build 2000 to 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE Saturday afternoon. With ample dry air aloft and DCAPE values near or over 1000 J/kg, downdrafts capable of producing strong to damaging winds will be possible on an isolated scale. Additionally, the CAPE profile is well-proportioned within the hail growth zone and hodographs are relatively straight.Therefore, if any of the stronger cells can adopt supercellular characteristics, isolated hail is also a reasonable secondary possibility. Accordingly, SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk (1/5) for damaging winds and large hail across nearly all of the JKL CWA. Heading into Saturday evening and night, convection should diminish as the front and upper-level disturbance depart. In their wake, clearing skies and light winds will once again set the stage for at least some fog in the valleys, though weak low-level northwest flow will be a mitigating factor. Saturday night's low temperatures are forecast to range in the low to mid 60s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 330 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026 The long term period will start with a relatively comfortable air mass in place, by August standards. Surface high pressure supplying the cooler and drier air should be ridging from western Ontario to the lower Ohio Valley, while low pressure (surface and aloft) is just north of the Great Lakes. The upper trough surrounding the low will cover most of the eastern CONUS. Our lowest dew points from this air mass are forecast from Monday into Tuesday, with readings in the 50s, also allowing for lows in that range. In fact, the NBM and MEXMOS are only a couple degrees off the record of 55 at JKL on the 25th. The low and the trough weaken by midweek as they drift east, and a warming trend gets underway locally as geopotential heights rise. The forecast then gets messier moving into the late week time frame. Another upper low or trough is expected to move east southeast to southeast Ontario, which will deepening a larger scale upper trough over the eastern CONUS again. This supports a cold front to move southeast through the Midwest. There is not agreement on the timing of this front to arrive here, or on the surface pattern setting up in advance. At this point, only a generalized forecast is practical, with an increase in moisture/dew points and POP ahead of the front late in the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026 Fog has formed in the valleys, especially south of KIOB and KSYM and it had begun to spread to near KLOZ as of issuance time. With a deepening nocturnal inversion, this may lift into most or all of the remaining TAF sites, at least briefly, between 08Z to 12Z with MVFR to IFR if not lower reductions at times. Fog should lift and dissipate between 12Z and 14Z and give way to cumulus development by 16Z. A cold front and disturbance will approach during peak heating and result in isolated to scattered convection between about 17Z and 01Z. Some of the storms could contain strong to damaging wind gusts and some gustier winds were included in a PROB30 group for KIOB and KSYM although PROB30 groups for thunder were included for the remaining TAF locations for a few hours between 18Z and 00Z. Winds will be light and variable to begin the period, but become WSW to W at 5 to 10KT between 15Z and 00Z. Winds will trend to the northwest behind the front to end the period and slacken. Strong gusts as previously noted in excess of 30KT are possible with any thunderstorms. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GEERTSON LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...JP