939 FXUS61 KBTV 220701 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 301 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 259 AM EDT Saturday... No significant changes to the current forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 259 AM EDT Saturday... 1. A pair of systems will increase precipitation chances across northern New York and southeastern Vermont into the latter portion of the weekend. 2. Trending drier mid next week before showers arrive toward the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 259 AM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Today will mainly be dry and seasonable with chances for precipitation increasing later Sunday. A pair of systems will split our area bringing shower chances to portions of the area. The first of the two systems will be a weak coastal low along the coast of southern New England, which will track near Cape Cod and is expected to continue moving northeast out into the Gulf of Maine. Some showers may be possible in eastern Windsor and Orange Counties tonight, however, recent trends have suggested steadier precipitation associated with the coastal system will stay east of the Connecticut River. Any showers that do develop in southeastern Vermont will be light in nature. The second stronger system will be an approaching long wave trough that will track east from the Great Lakes region. The trough moves east into the St. Lawrence Valley later today into early Sunday, with scattered rounds of showers. The trough slowly tracks east through the day Sunday reaching Vermont by later Sunday into Sunday night. Some isolated thunder is possible with these showers, though instability is limited. Precipitation amounts will be light, generally below a half an inch. The higher amounts around a quarter inch will be in northern New York, primarily in the northern St. Lawrence Valley. The trough will pull away to the northeast on Monday. As the trough occludes and drifts northeast, the parent upper low will continue to keep showers chances around with wrap around cyclonic flow. Clouds and shower chances near the International Border and northern New York will continue through the day Monday with seasonable temperatures in the low to mid 70s. KEY MESSAGE 2: Ridging should dominate for Wednesday before it pushes to the east for the end of the week. An upper-level trough looks to build in Thursday and Friday and bring the chance for some showers. A weak northern-stream low should track from west to east out of the Great Lakes Region and into Quebec on during this time, bringing the chance for the showers. A low will try to develop off the Mid- Atlantic Coast and move northward into the region, but model guidance is very split on this. This would enhance rainfall late Friday into Saturday, but right now the rain reaching the region is not favored among the ensembles. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06Z Sunday...Patchy fog will develop during the rest of the night. It is expected to reach SLK and MPV where IFR visibility is expected to develop. It is possible at EFK, with maybe around a 30-40 percent chance of occurring. Elsewhere, VFR visibility should prevail. After any fog lifts by around 12Z, VFR visibility is expected to continue through the evening. A few showers should develop across northern New York and southern Vermont late tonight and a brief reduction to MVFR visibility will be possible. Winds will generally be southerly up to around 15 KT today, with the highest gusts at PBG and BTV. Winds lighten a little tonight, generally staying under 10 KT. Outlook... Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Neiles DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Neiles AVIATION...Myskowski  779 FXUS62 KMLB 220700 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 300 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Daily afternoon shower and storm development is forecast across east central Florida through this weekend and into next week. - Storm hazards today will include frequent lightning strikes, strong to marginally severe wind gusts, small hail, and heavy downpours leading to rainfall accumulations of 1-3". - Heat remains a concern across east central Florida, though peak heat indices are anticipated to stay below advisory criteria. Regardless, residents and visitors to the area are encouraged to practice heat safety! && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Today-Tonight...Deep mid-level troughing remains in place across the eastern US today, with a shortwave positioned across north Florida being absorbed into the broader pattern. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis will remain south of east central Florida as a quasi-stationary boundary draped across the southeastern US drifts farther south towards Florida. Locally, light southwest winds are forecast through this morning, with winds becoming more southeasterly along the coast this afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops and attempts to push inland. The sea breeze will struggle due to prevailing southwest winds aloft. A plume of moisture will generally remain in place locally, but Saharan dust will work through the mid and upper levels, with PWATs trending slightly lower in the 1.8-2.0" range. There is still a 30-40% chance of showers and storms today despite the drier air being a limiting factor to development, with energy aloft and the sea breezes potentially providing enough support. Coverage is favored to increase after 2 PM, with activity pushing towards the coast thanks to the aforementioned southwest steering flow. Adequate daytime heating will increase instability, drier air aloft will support stronger downdrafts (DCAPE 1000 J/kg+), and cooler 500mb temperatures (-7C) will increase the potential for hail. This means the main hazards for today with convective development will include frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 55 mph (with a low chance for severe wind gusts), small hail, and heavy downpours with rainfall accumulations of 1-3" possible. The best chances for showers and storms remain focused along the coast. Activity will push offshore and across the local Atlantic waters late this evening into the overnight hours, with mostly dry conditions across the peninsula. Another day of high temperatures climbing into the low to mid 90s across east central Florida, with peak heat indices remaining just below advisory criteria in the 102F to 107F range. Adequate hydration and breaks in the shade or an air conditioned building will be important for those spending extended periods of time outdoors and as always, children and pets should never be left alone in vehicles for any period of time. Temperatures overnight will remain near-normal in the mid-70s. Sunday-Monday...The mid-level trough begins to weaken towards the end of this weekend and into Monday, with the potential for a couple additional shortwaves moving towards the Florida peninsula. The pattern will remain fairly consistent into Sunday, with the surface boundary remaining draped across the southeastern US. However, the weakening of the trough will result in the surface boundary shifting northward by Monday, with the Atlantic ridge axis anticipated to also begin lifting north back towards the Florida peninsula. Southwesterly winds persist on Sunday, shifting more southerly on Monday. The typical diurnal summertime pattern persists with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible across east central Florida as the sea breezes develop, though drier air aloft may act to limit convective development, especially on Monday. Lightning strikes, wind gusts to 55 mph, small hail, and heavy downpours will be possible on Sunday, with lower confidence in the hail potential on Monday as mid-level temperatures trend a degree or two warmer. Activity timing will favor the afternoon and early evening hours each day, with showers and storms diminishing into the overnight hours. Isolated development across the local Atlantic waters will be possible overnight, with dry conditions across the peninsula. Temperatures will remain near-normal through the remainder of this weekend and into Monday, with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s. Peak heat indices will continue to range from 102F to 107F. Tuesday-Friday...Weak mid-level troughing will remain in place across the eastern US into next week, with a series of shortwaves traveling around the main trough and digging southward into Florida. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis continues to establish itself across the Florida peninsula, with the return of predominantly southerly flow advecting moisture towards the peninsula. The energy aloft from the passing shortwaves coupled with the daily afternoon sea breeze development will result in a return of near-normal shower and storm chances across east central Florida, with PoPs ranging between 30-40% on Tuesday and 40-70% Wednesday onward. All of the typical summertime storm hazards will be possible, including lightning strikes, gusty winds, and heavy downpours. Following the usual diurnal trend, activity is anticipated to diminish into the late evening and overnight hours each day, with mostly dry conditions overnight. Outside of shower and storm chances, temperatures across east central Florida will remain right around normal values through next week. Humidity will continue to push peak heat indices well above 100F, though most guidance suggest values remaining below advisory criteria. This will continue to be closely monitored. Regardless, residents and visitors should plan to practice heat safety to avoid developing heat-related illness. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast across the local waters. The Atlantic ridge axis will remain south of the local waters this weekend, keeping winds generally out of the southwest. By Monday, the axis lifts northward and will remain draped across the waters, resulting in winds shifting to out of the south. The development of the east coast sea breeze each afternoon will cause winds to become more southeasterly, increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are anticipated to remain between 1 to 3 feet, highest across the offshore waters. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible across the local waters through the afternoon and evening hours as activity from the peninsula pushes offshore. Storms will be capable of producing frequent cloud-to-water lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 30 knots, small hail, heavy downpours, and locally higher seas. While conditions are forecast to trend drier through the overnight hours, some isolated development across the Gulf Stream waters cannot be fully ruled out each night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 111 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Continued quiet with predominant VFR through midday. Light SSW winds up to 7 KT, becoming SE at coastal terminals this afternoon. Expecting 30-40% storm coverage today, with potentially a later start. With that in mind, have introduced PROB30s at many terminals centered between 21Z and 01Z depending on the airfield. For MCO, 22Z to 01Z appears to hold the highest chance for convection. With drier air aloft, intense downdrafts will be a concern. Stronger storms will once again carry a risk of gusts 35+ kt and brief LIFR/IFR restrictions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 94 75 92 75 / 40 20 30 10 MCO 95 76 93 76 / 30 20 40 10 MLB 94 76 93 76 / 40 30 40 10 VRB 93 75 93 75 / 40 20 30 10 LEE 93 75 91 75 / 30 10 40 10 SFB 94 76 92 76 / 40 20 40 10 ORL 95 77 93 77 / 30 20 40 10 FPR 92 75 93 75 / 40 20 30 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tollefsen AVIATION...Heil  921 FXUS66 KMTR 220701 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1201 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages continue through the next week - Warm and dry conditions persist above 1000 feet && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1200 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 (Today and tonight) The skies are generally clear for now with patches of stratus in favored locations and some high level clouds continuing to stream across the interior. Offshore, a blob of cooler air lurks offshore, evidenced by a robust stratus deck set up off the North Bay and the San Mateo Peninsula. Through the rest of the night, this stratus deck is expected to expand to the coastal areas and build inland through the post-sunrise hours when the stratus will begin to gradually clear out. The region remains under the influence of the balance between a cutoff low located around 200 miles west of Cape Blanco along the southern coast of Oregon, and an upper level ridge with an axis extending along the crest of the Rocky Mountains. Altogether this pattern will result in temperatures which are near to slightly below the seasonal averages, with highs today ranging from the upper 70s to the lower 90s in the inland valleys, the middle 90s into the triple digits for the warmest interior spots, especially the southern tier of Monterey County, across the 70s for areas near the Bays, and the 60s for areas along the Pacific coast. The marine layer remains relatively stable at around 1000-1500 feet, with warm and dry conditions persisting above the marine layer inversion as relative humidity values reach the 10-30% range. Winds remain relatively light and develop in an onshore flow pattern, with wind gusts reaching 20 to 30 miles per hour along the coast, through favored gaps and passes, and within the northern Salinas Valley. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1200 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 (Sunday through Friday) More of the same pattern is anticipated for the rest of the week's forecast, with a generally southwesterly upper level flow over the region as the series of eastern Pacific troughs continues to balance the ridge over the Desert Southwest. High temperatures are expected to hover around the upper 70s to the lower 90s for the inland valleys and the middle 60s to upper 70s near the Bays, with a subtle drop in the temperatures in the early part of next week before the ridge tries to build back towards the west. As noted by the previous forecaster, a couple of broad low pressure areas to the south of Baja California could develop into tropical systems sometime within the 7-day outlook, and how those systems interact with the ridge is highly uncertain at this time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 938 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR prevails except for patchy coastal stratus and fog /IFR/ along San Mateo County and Monterey County. Mid and high clouds, including wildfire smoke over the north Central Coast, are moving northeastward over the forecast area. An area of cooler near surface air will arrive from the northwest tonight and Saturday morning resulting in a return of stratus, fog /IFR-LIFR/ and possibly a few patches of drizzle. Vicinity of SFO...It's VFR except cooler surface air will arrive overnight, this will support redevelopment of stratus /IFR/. VFR returns 18z Saturday. West wind 10 to 15 knots tonight and Saturday morning. West wind increasing to 20 to 28 knots Saturday afternoon to mid Saturday evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Erosion of stratus is still taking place to the northwest across the Monterey Bay however orographic upslope cooling of air parcels upon arrival vicinity KMRY is occurring supporting a scattered to broken stratus /MVFR-IFR/ ceiling. Stratus /IFR/ is forecast to reach KSNS tonight and Saturday morning. Wildfire smoke so far is aloft. A few patches of drizzle are possible tonight and Saturday morning. Conditions improve to MVFR- VFR late Saturday morning and afternoon. Stratus /IFR/ returns Saturday evening. West to northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 932 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Widespread moderate to fresh northwest breezes prevail through the weekend with slight to moderate seas. Locally strong breezes with occasional near gale force gusts are expected in the coastal jet regions of Point Sur and Point Reyes. Hazardous conditions for small crafts are expected this afternoon for the bay waters and immediate coastal waters. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10- 60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  003 FXUS61 KPBZ 220702 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 302 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Higher confidence in the timing and scope of thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening results in higher probability of severe weather occurring. SPC also introduced a low probability damaging wind threat for Sunday near the I-80 corridor/ && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A slight risk exists for damaging wind and large hail threat with storm activity this afternoon and evening. 2) A marginal risk for damaging wind Sunday is tied to afternoon and evening convection near the I-80 corridor. 3) Outside of lingering showers near Lake Erie, dry weather favored through mid next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Outside of a loner, elevated storm in north central OH, the overnight period has seen the pre-frontal convection die off east of the region while the MCS remains farther west in central IL. This results sets up the region to remain in a clearer sky environment that awaits the arrival of the pre-frontal trough (and eventual sfc cold front) to initiate fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms. Hi-res guidance has generally coalesced around the idea of storm initiation between 2pm-4pm over eastern OH with storms spreading east through 8pm along/ahead of the pre-frontal trough before lingering showers and low probability thunderstorms full push east of the region by the early hours Sunday morning ahead of the surface cold front. Clearer skies allowing for maximization of surface heating should push area SBCAPE values towards 1500-2000 J/kg and steepens low-level lapse rates that serves as the main drivers for the hazardous weather threat. Despite weak shear (around 20kts) and marginal dCAPE (600-800 J/kg) that should limit the high-end severe potential, discrete storms that merge into multicellular clusters is enough to create scattered instances of damaging winds and large hail. Severe threats peak between 4pm-8pm before subsiding thereafter as buoyancy wanes and the surface decouples. KEY MESSAGE 2... Residual shortwave movement combined with cold advection aloft may trigger isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm Sunday afternoon and evening coincident with peak heating. Storms coming off Lake Erie toward the I-80 corridor may pose an isolated damaging wind threat if surface heating maximizes sbCAPE (to 1000 J/kg) while mid-level flow strengthens. KEY MESSAGE 3... Residual cool northwest flow on the backside of the upper trough may induce enough lift in conjunction with warm Lake Erie waters to create light rain showers near/north of I-80 late Sunday into Monday. Otherwise, high pressure and height rises aloft point to a prolonged (relatively speaking, in relation to the previous month) dry period to start next week. High temperature does start below seasonal averages on Monday before rising back near average by mid week. Long range ensembles currently favor Thursday as the next day with showers/thunderstorms as the next upper trough crosses. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Limited early morning fog mainly within river valleys will erode with diurnal heating/mixing after 12z. VFR prevails otherwise until fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening ahead of an advancing pre-frontal trough (1st) and cold front (2nd) combo. The strong storms could drop visibilities to IFR levels while also posing a risk for creating wind gusts to at least 30kts, potentially higher. Lingering shower and low probability thunderstorms eventually clear east by 06z, but cool advection plus residual moisture favors MVFR/IFR stratus development thereafter. Outlook... Widespread MVFR to IFR cigs are favored Sunday morning that improvethrough the day, but scattered showers and low probability thunderstorms develop by the afternoon due to cool NW flow over warm lake waters. Precipitation chances linger in northwest PA into Monday before high pressure provides areawide VFR dry weather by Tuesday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Frazier AVIATION...Frazier  033 FXUS63 KIND 220703 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 303 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated/scattered showers and a few t-storms are possible early this morning with isolated convection possible again late today - Cooler and less humid weather expected Sunday through Tuesday with highs mainly in the 70s to low 80s. - Areas of late night/early morning fog will occur Saturday and Sunday nights. - Dry weather expected Monday and Tuesday with increasing chances for rain and storms mid-late next week. && .DISCUSSION (Today through Friday)... Issued at 302 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Today through Sunday... Expect multiple embedded waves within upper troughing to move through the region this weekend while northwest flow persists. Current KIND radar imagery depicts scatters showers and a few storms pushing into central Indiana early this morning. This convection is associated with an MCS which has been gradually weakening through the overnight as it is outpacing the more unstable environment back across IL. Additional showers and a few storms are possible through the morning with the disturbance pushing through, but weak forcing will limit coverage. Look for winds to turn northwesterly by mid-morning once a cold front passes. Drier air filtering in should promote mostly dry conditions later today into tonight. However, a subtle backdoor front and marginal low-level moisture could support a few showers or a stray storm, mainly across far northwestern counties. Light winds combined with mostly clear skies Saturday night supports the potential for patchy fog. Any fog that develops will quickly mix out Sunday morning. Another subtle impulse could promote a few light showers over far NE counties Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, look for pleasant weather with cooler weather from persistent northwest flow. Highs on Saturday are expected to range from the upper 70s to low 80s whiles highs on Sunday generally range from the mid 70s to low 80s. Sunday night through Tuesday... Broad area of surface high pressure will push SE into the Ohio Valley through the period, providing for much drier conditions, with dewpts falling into the 50s. As a result most areas will see low temperatures in the 50s Sunday night. Light winds and mostly clear skies will lead to another night with areas of fog Sunday night. A weak system in the NW flow aloft is expected to move across the MO/mid-MS valleys Monday into Tuesday. At present the only expected effect from this system will be increasing mid-high clouds. This should limit fog chances Monday night and keep high temperatures in the 70s most areas Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday through Friday... Another upper wave/surface cold front will move through during the period. Confidence in timing is very low considering the system is currently off the west coast, so for now will only have some low PoPs. Seasonable temperatures are expected with increasing humidity with increasing SW flow in the low levels. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 106 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Impacts: - Isolated/scattered -SHRA/TSRA possible through 13-15Z - Low chance for brief fog at outlying sites this morning - WNW winds gusting up to 20-25KT Saturday afternoon/late day Discussion: Scattered convection and isolated thunder will be possible through 13-15Z as a disturbance moves across the region. Low confidence on MVFR from convection...with also a brief window of potential MVFR from fog at terminals outside of KIND, towards dawn. It does appear increasingly likely brief MVFR ceilings are possible at KLAF between 12-16Z so added a TEMPO group. Overall light/variable flow tonight will yield to stronger post- frontal flow Saturday midday-afternoon, with winds veering slightly within 270-320 degrees, occasionally gusting up to 20-25KT through late afternoon. Morning cloud cover could limit diurnal mixing and peak gusts slightly. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ AVIATION...Melo DISCUSSION...Crosbie/Melo  304 FXUS61 KAKQ 220709 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 309 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Slight (level 2/5) excessive rain risk downgraded to a Marginal (level 1/5) risk for eastern VA and the MD Eastern Shore && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and some embedded storms are likely today, especially near the Chesapeake Bay and on the Eastern Shore. While severe weather is not expected, localized flash flooding will be possible. 2) Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered diurnally driven convection returns by the middle to latter part of the week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 305 AM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and some embedded storms are likely today, especially near the Chesapeake Bay and on the Eastern Shore. While severe weather is not expected, localized flash flooding will be possible. A weak stationary boundary remains just south of the forecast area this morning, roughly aligned along the NC/SC coast. There is also a broad trough axis aloft across most of the eastern CONUS. Locally, there is a ribbon of mostly light rain across the northern/northwest portions of the area. This conflicts with several earlier runs of various CAMS which depicted rather widespread overnight showers and storms, particularly across SE VA and NE NC. In fact, these areas are actually quite stable as of this writing with sfc temps in the lower 70s and dew points in the upper 60s, which yields low/near-zero sfc-based and MUCAPE. Any appreciable instability remains confined to our S, in closer proximity to the front. Therefore, really don't see much convective activity developing through around sunrise. The front will (eventually) lift northward as we head into this afternoon. Model and WPC progs also depict weak low pressure developing in the vicinity of the Chesapeake Bay and Eastern Shore. This, combined with some low-level convergence, should be sufficient for showers to develop in these areas by late this afternoon and afternoon. Instability looks quite meager, especially early on in the day, so am not expecting widespread thunderstorms at this time. A moist atmospheric column (PWATS ~2.1" across the E/SE) and slow- moving activity will support a continued heavy rain and localized flash flooding risk. The 00z HREF also depicted a relatively impressive signal for heavy rain and some flash flooding in the Eastern Shore vicinity. However, all of the 00z members that comprised the ensemble suite are currently handling the ongoing activity extremely poorly. Therefore, confidence in the evolution of convection later today is low and some recent runs of the CAMs are less bullish about the overall coverage of showers and the associated heavy rain signal. WPC has removed the targeted "Slight" excessive rainfall risk (which was in place for eastern VA and the MD Eastern Shore) and replaced it with a broad "Marginal" risk. In summary, localized pockets of very heavy rain are possible, but the exact location is uncertain and the coverage may tend to be on the low side. All of this precludes the need for any Flood Watch at this time. Late this evening, convection from the Great Lakes and OH Valley, associated with the primary cold front and trough, could approach our Piedmont counties. However, diminishing instability and reduced forcing with eastward extent should allow for most of this activity to diminish as it moves eastward tonight. Outside of any precip, temps will be quite "cool" for mid-late August and only in the upper 70s-lower 80s (some mid 80s possible SE). Skies will average mostly cloudy, with some clearing possible W of I-95 this afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered diurnally driven convection returns by the middle to latter part of the week. The weak front will finally move offshore late Sunday, as the main upper level trough axis shifts offshore and surface high pressure builds into the SE CONUS. The surface high will usher in a drier airmass with seasonable temperatures in the 80s and dew points in the 60s Sunday into early next week. A reinforcing intrusion of dry air is likely Monday night/Tuesday with dew points in the 50s looking likely (except 60s far SE). The high is progged to break down by Wed/Thu, with unsettled conditions and isolated- scattered aftn/evening convection returning mid to late week. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 135 AM EDT Saturday... A frontal boundary remains south of the area to start off the forecast period. Most sites actually remain VFR as of 06z but observations and model guidance indicate lower CIGs will gradually creep into most of the terminals over the next few hours. CIGs look to bottom out in the 500-2000 feet range (lowest at RIC) as the front gradually lifts back N. Additionally, the coverage of showers/storms is expected to increase over the next few hours and especially after 12z. While strong-severe storms are not expected today, IFR VSBYs are possible in any heavier showers. Remaining unsettled heading into the later half of the day with continued showers/storms expected (best chance at ORF and ECG). CIGs will remain MVFR through most of the morning and should gradually clear by this afternoon and especially this evening. Outlook: Drying out tonight with VFR conditions returning Sunday morning through Monday. Some patchy fog could occur inland around or after 06z Sunday. && .MARINE... As of 305 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Generally benign marine conditions are expected through the weekend into early next week. - Showers and occasional thunderstorms are expected today, with diminishing chances of showers and thunderstorms Sunday into early next week. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail this weekend through much of next week. Weak high pressure is centered over Atlantic Canada early this morning, with a weak trough off the NC Outer Banks. The wind is E 5-10kt. Seas are 2-3ft, with ~1ft waves in the Ches. Bay. A weak trough lingers offshore today as a warm front lifts across the Mid-Atlantic coast. An E wind is forecast to increase to 10-15kt across the northern coastal/offshore waters this morning, before becoming SE ~10kt this aftn. Elsewhere, generally an E/SE wind ~10kt for the Ches. Bay, SE/S 5-10kt for the southern coastal/offshore waters, tidal rivers, and Currituck Sound. Numerous showers/tstms are expected today as the warm front lifts across the waters. The wind becomes SW 5-10kt tonight ahead of a weak cold front, which cross the coast early Sunday resulting in a wind shift to W 5-10kt. Another weak cold front crosses the coast early Monday with a brief wind shift to NW, before becoming W/SW with speeds remaining less than 10kt. Yet another weak cold front crosses the coast early Tuesday resulting in a brief wind shift to NNW. High pressure settles off the Southeast coast mid to late next week resulting in S/SW flow at or below 15kt. Seas are expected to be 2ft to occasionally 3ft for the next week, with 1ft to occasionally 2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. A low rip risk will be maintained today, Sunday, and Monday. There is a period of increased onshore flow for the northern beaches this morning. However, the swell direction will be ~50 degrees for shore normal, which should result in more of a longshore current. This combined with shorter period nearshore waves should keep the rip risk at low for the northern beaches today. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ERI/SW AVIATION...AJB/SW MARINE...AJZ  502 FXUS63 KILX 220710 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 210 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A 20% chance of thunderstorms exists across east-central IL from 3-8 pm today. While severe storms are unlikely, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The early morning storms will continue to dissipate as they push southeast across central Illinois. What's left of ths storms should near to south of I-70 by 4 am. The weak cold front will shift winds to the northwest early this morning...ushering in slightly cooler temps. Temps will rebound into the 80-85 degree range for today. We'll see lower 500 mb heights for the weekend into Monday as an upper trough passes through the Great Lakes region...keeping temps a few degrees below normal. Sunday and Monday look to have highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Regarding shower/storm chances today, the HREF mean has 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE across central IL by midday... with some models teasing of a line of convection extending east to west from Danville to Lincoln by 5 pm. Have introduced some slight chances of storms moving south from 3 pm to 8 pm across east-central IL. SPC just has general thunder in this area...severe storms are not expected. PWATs are rather low, 1-1.25 inches, favoring a rather isolated storm setup. With 30kts of deep shear and some upper support, a strong to near-severe storm can't be ruled out, despite the drier air. Tonight, much drier air aloft will push into the area, bringing clearing skies and allowing lows to drop to the upper 50s to low 60s. For the work week, expect cooler than average temperatures at the front of the week give way to near normal temps for the mid to latter part of the week. We'll see another upper trough move from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region for Wed- Thu. Precipitation looks rather limited due to the pattern. However, there could be some low chances showing up as we get closer to the Wed-Fri timeframe. Models are hinting at something more organized for the latter part of next weekend. We'll see if this gains traction in upcoming model runs. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A line of thunderstorms will continue southeast across central Illinois during the early overnight hours, but should be clear of the I-72 terminals by around 07Z. Behind the storms, winds will gradually set up out of the northwest the remainder of the period, picking up into the 10-12kt range during the day Saturday. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...07/Knutsvig DISCUSSION...07/Knutsvig AVIATION...Deubelbeiss  326 FXUS66 KEKA 220709 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1209 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Generally mild, seasonable weather is expected for the next week. && .SYNOPSIS...Slightly below normal temperatures are expected today. Some warming in the interior is expected Sunday and Monday before another trough brings cooler temperatures next week. Dry, seasonable weather is likely for the next week. && .DISCUSSION...The upper low that brought a deep marine layer and upper-level moisture (and the associated high clouds) moves out of the area today and high pressure starts to build in behind it. Marine influence is expected to keep temperatures in the interior moderated with most areas in the 80s to low 90s. 60s and 70s are likely closer to the coast. Stratus along the immediate coast is likely to at least partially clear this afternoon with model soundings showing a very weak marine inversion. Weak offshore flow tonight into Sunday morning may slow the reemergence of coastal stratus, though most models do show at least some clouds reforming. Regardless, breezy coastal winds Sunday afternoon are likely to scatter any remaining stratus bringing a mostly clear, but breezy, Sunday afternoon at the coast. Interior temperatures jump closer to normal with 90s likely for most interior valleys. Monday through the middle of the week, a trough starts to approach the area bringing slightly cooler interior temperatures along with a deeper marine layer. Light winds offshore may lead to coastal stratus to be persistent into the afternoons. Moisture and instability is limited with this troughing pattern, which will limit thunderstorm potential. Generally mild, seasonable weather is likely for much of the next week. && .AVIATION...(6Z TAFs)...MVFR ceilings are being observed at the coastal terminals as the marine layer remains deep. Ceilings may fall briefly to IFR before sunrise. Ceilings are likely to lift in the morning and into the afternoon. Scattering is possible, but NBM does have ACV and CEC have a 45% and 60% chance for at least MVFR ceilings, respectively. A weak marine inversion does lend some support to at least partial scattering for a few hours in the afternoon. && .MARINE...Northerly winds return today, especially south of Cape Mendocino. Locally stronger northerly winds, with near gale to gale force gusts, are likely in the immediate lee of the Cape by this evening. Winds continue to increase and spread across the waters into Sunday with stronger winds with gusts of 20 to 30 kts likely by Sunday morning. South of Cape Mendocino, winds peak Sunday afternoon, while north of the Cape, winds peak Sunday evening and overnight. Winds quickly diminish early Monday and winds remain relatively light through midweek. Aside from steep wind waves from these northerlies, seas this week will be dominated by small long period southerly swells and mid period westerly swells. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png  942 FXUS61 KPHI 220716 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 316 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The risk for flash flooding has diminished for Delmarva and southern New Jersey today. The risk for thunderstorms has increased a bit for late tonight through Sunday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. One disturbance passes off the Mid-Atlantic coast today, followed by a cold front late tonight through Sunday morning. A period of showers and thunderstorms is likely with localized flooding. 2. Fair weather is expected to return Monday and should last into the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...One disturbance passes off the Mid-Atlantic coast today, followed by a cold front late tonight through Sunday morning. A period of showers and thunderstorms is likely with localized flooding. The base of an upper trough associated with an H5 low over central Canada will move through the Mid-Atlantic later today. Some showers, perhaps a thunderstorm, will impact Delmarva and extreme southern New Jersey later this morning into early afternoon. However, the previous threat for flooding has diminished as the heaviest rain looks to stay south and east of the area. WPC has removed the Slight Risk (2/4) for Excessive Rainfall and the Marginal Risk (1/4) is focused on Delmarva and Cape May county in New Jersey. A cold front approaches tonight and the upper trough becomes negatively tilted over the Northeast. Another round of showers and possible thunderstorms will develop late tonight and continue into Sunday morning. Instability will be marginal with up to 500 or so J/kg of SBCAPE and MUCAPE, but 0-6 km Bulk Shear values will be upwards of 45 to 50 kt. CAMs showing the potential for some strong to possibly severe thunderstorms mainly north and west of Philadelphia and into northern New Jersey after midnight tonight and into the pre-dawn hours Sunday morning. Locally heavy rain may lead to instances of localized flash flooding in these areas as well. Cold front passes through the region late Sunday morning, and conditions improve Sunday afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2...Fair weather is expected to return Monday and should last into the middle of next week. More zonal flow with some subtle ridging moves in for the first half of the week. At the surface, high pressure will mainly be in control, resulting in dry and tranquil weather through Wednesday. Temperatures should be seasonable through this stretch. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Early this morning...Generally VFR, though MVFR and possibly IFR VSBYs in BR at KRDG. CIGs may lower close to MVFR prior to 12Z. LGT/VRB winds. Low confidence. Today...MVFR CIGs in the morning, lifting to VFR at all but KMIV/KACY. VSBY restrictions in RA/BR at KMIV/KACY from morning through midday or so. E-SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence. Tonight...CIGs lower to IFR with MVFR VSBYs. Scattered SHRA with potential TSRA late. E-SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Low confidence. Outlook... Sunday...MVFR or lower in SHRA/TSRA. Improving conds in the afternoon. Sunday night through Wednesday...VFR. NSW. && .MARINE... Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions on the waters today and tonight. East winds around 10 kt will become SE 10 to 15 kt later today and tonight. Ocean seas will average 2 to 3 ft. VSBY restrictions in showers and perhaps a thunderstorm today, then another round of showers and thunderstorms will impact the waters late tonight. Outlook... Sunday through Wednesday...No marine headlines expected. Showers continue Sunday morning, ending Sunday afternoon. Fair weather thereafter. Rip Currents...Today...East to southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with breaking waves of 2 to 3 feet and easterly swells with a period of 6 to 8 seconds will result in a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents for the Jersey Shore and a LOW risk for Delaware Beaches. On Sunday, winds shift to the southwest at 10 to 15 mph in the morning, then to the west in the afternoon. Breaking waves will be 1 to 2 feet with light southerly swells with a 6 to 8 second period. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MPS/OHara/Staarmann AVIATION...MPS/OHara/Staarmann MARINE...MPS/OHara/Staarmann  956 FXUS62 KTBW 220716 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 316 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid conditions continue through the weekend. - Drier air aloft today will lead to lower rain chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Today will be very similar to yesterday, though with slightly less rain expected. With west to southwest flow, a few showers and storms over the Gulf in the morning could drift close to shore. Best chance for showers or storms will likely be later in the afternoon with sea breeze convergence inland and further east. The same pattern persists into Sunday, with the only caveat being a little extra moisture thanks to a boundary that will drift over north Florida. The boundary will enhance shower and storm activity over the NE Gulf with some of the showers and storms moving onshore over the nature coast. More typical afternoon showers along the interior will also be possible SUnday afternoon as the sea breeze pushes inland. Conditions will continue to be hot, though below heat advisory levels. A slight change in the pattern will arrive early next week with the flow transitioning more southeast. Dry air aloft will continue to keep rain chances on the low side Monday and Tuesday. Moisture begins to rebound Wednesday increasing rain chances through the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the period. However, there is a low probability of showers and storms developing this afternoon that could impact terminals. Winds will be out of the west southwest. && .MARINE... Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Mostly quiet marine conditions expected through the weekend. A few isolated showers possible over the coastal waters early this morning. Winds continue to be out of the west, southwest mainly under 10 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Fire weather concerns remain minimal as humidity values remain above critical. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 79 89 79 / 10 20 50 10 FMY 93 78 94 78 / 20 0 20 10 GIF 95 75 93 75 / 20 10 40 10 SRQ 92 78 90 77 / 10 10 30 10 BKV 92 73 90 73 / 20 20 50 10 SPG 90 80 89 80 / 10 20 50 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce DECISION SUPPORT...Fleming  958 FXUS63 KAPX 220716 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 316 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -- Rain/storms today. -- Breezy, cool, and showery Sunday with high swim risks. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: Ridge axis stretches from British Columbia down to the Four Corners region, where the 598/599dm upper level heat dome remains in place...with an upper low just off the West Coast poised to try to eject northward. Meanwhile, downstream, NW flow overtaking the Central US, with sharp trough axis focused from KY northward through MI into central Ontario...and another shortwave trough dropping out of Manitoba as of 3z. Shortwave ridge axis over eastern Canada as upper troughing exits the Canadian coast. Bulk of the moisture across the continent is focused along the SE US coast along a boundary stretching loosely down the Atlantic coast and through the Gulf Coast states...and secondly, across the Upper Great Lakes up into Hudson Bay near/beneath the incoming troughing. Anticyclonic flow in the low/mid-levels over central Canada helping to reinforce cold northwesterly flow across Manitoba and western Ontario, where 850mb temps are in the 4-8C range attm...and a surface cold front stretching from MN to Hudson Bay reflects this cold advection idea. A cold front does stretch from the central UP down into the Mid MS Valley and Central Plains, though for our neck of the woods, the thermal change is less impressive than the wind shift attm, with winds distinctly turning around to the NW behind it (as opposed to the southerly surface flow ahead of it). Expect this latter feature will be exiting NE MI this morning as that energy digs nearly straight south from northwestern Ontario. This should keep the threat for showers and perhaps storms going through the day as multiple waves dig through the region. Strengthening pressure gradient between departing pressure falls and approaching surface high will result in strengthening northwest winds later today into tonight...and hanging on into Sunday as an somewhat unseasonable wad of PV drops in and results in a strengthening of aforementioned pressure falls to our E/NE. Falling temps aloft should generate overlake instability and lake effect rain showers to wrap up the weekend. Not impossible this idea hangs on into the start of the workweek, but attm, appears ridging should build eastward into the Upper Midwest later Monday...ahead of the next feature plowing its way across southern Canada...which should reach us by midweek, though its warm advective influences may reach us a tad sooner. It is still somewhat unclear attm how the end of next week will evolve, though signals the last few nights suggest the flow may try to flatten out across the northern CONUS as bits of energy continue to track across Canada. FORECAST DETAILS... Rain/storm chances today through Sunday (Monday?)... Think there is a reasonable shot at a PV max lifting through around midday/afternoon today, and another, more potent bit of PV digging in from the northwest toward late afternoon/evening...perhaps not all that dissimilar to yesterday's setup, but translated eastward a bit...though certainly possible there will be other, smaller-scale perturbations to contend with. We will continue to hang onto several hundred to around 1000 joules of elevated instability this morning, and think this could have a shot at becoming surface based with time today, especially toward NE Lower which should remain in the warm sector longest...though if we are able to warm enough to mix out any weak nocturnal inversion this morning, we could become surface based right away with low-LCLs, and do wonder (with my very worst-case- scenario brain) if a rogue spin-up is possible?...though shear generally remains weak till perhaps the afternoon (and even at that, is likely marginal, around 20-30kts at best)...though I am perhaps a bit aggressively biased toward the idea of lifting/negatively tilted shortwaves tending to be spicy. Some upscale growth is possible with shear vectors largely parallel to the boundary, and cooling/weak stability aloft suggests some marginal hail could be possible...but some localized heavy rains could also be a concern, especially if storms move slowly or hang out in an area for an extended time. 925mb temps falling below 14C as early as 3z tonight suggest we will begin to transition to more of a lake effect regime, and this should remain firmly in place Sunday as temps fall even further -- 850mb temps could fall below 4C, which would be sufficient to generate overlake instability over even the colder waters of central Lake Superior. Prevailing flow should generally be NW to NNW but may fluctuate back and forth a bit with the encroaching perturbations, with more northerly flow likely by later Sunday into Sunday night. Deepest moisture should remain over NE Lower MI Sunday, and this is where best coverage should be...though will expect most of the usual lake effect areas to see a little activity off and on this weekend. Fly in the ointment for the lake effect idea is that inversion heights should take a tumble later Sunday into early Monday, which could limit the extent of actual shower activity into the start of the work week. Would not be surprised to see some kind of drizzle hang on where upsloping is maximized...though attm, some (typically drier) guidance soundings hint at the idea of aggressive drying on Monday, which could help clear things out quicker. With potential for steep (15+C) delta-Ts Sunday, and 850mb winds most likely remaining at or below 30kts (at least till perhaps late), think we could have a shot at seeing some waterspouts on the northern Great Lakes, though not a sure bet. Winds this weekend...Pressure gradient will begin to strengthen this afternoon...and will only further expand/strengthen through the night into Sunday as that next wad of PV drops in, kicking cyclogenesis into high gear toward Georgian Bay/western Quebec. This should put the strongest synoptic winds generally from the EUP down into northeast Lower MI...with potential for sustained winds 10- 20kts through Sunday night. The low-level jet should strengthen as well, from 20-25kts even as early as this afternoon, upwards of 30+kts overnight. Think there could be some isolated gale-force gusts on the nearshores, but do not have much confidence in this idea attm, given that winds aloft aren't necessarily supportive. As mentioned above, prevailing winds should flit back and forth between NW and NNW with time as various perturbations pass through...but this will lead to building waves and dangerous swim conditions especially along our west/northwest facing beaches of northwest Lower, and across north(ish) facing shores of northeast Lower. While we do not specifically issue a beach forecast for Whitefish Bay, would anticipate much of that north-facing coastline from Bay Mills/Point Iroquois toward the mouth of the Tahquamenon River will also see high wave action and dangerous swimming conditions (not to mention high waves out on the Bay itself). ...Not that the cool, showery, blustery weather is overly inviting for beachgoing in the first place. Cool temps Sunday...Seasonably cool air mass supports highs in the 60s for most, though possibly closer to 70 near Saginaw Bay, particularly where downsloping and some clearing could come into play. Given anticipated showers/cloud cover (though it could end up less bullish than current expectations), have suspicions some of the interior areas could struggle to get out of the lower 60s, and would not be surprised if parts of the EUP stayed in the upper 50s. Combined with showers and breezy winds... it will definitely feel more like fall than late August. Temps should begin to warm Monday, about 5-10 degrees compared to Sunday, and if more aggressive drying occurs, perhaps bounce back up much closer to normal than current expectations...with potential for lows in the 40s again Monday night, especially if high pressure settles in overhead, though do have to wonder if we will end up with fog after the expected showers this weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1046 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Initial VFR conditions will give way to MVFR (IFR?) cigs this morning. Cigs improve during later this morning into the afternoon, with perhaps some afternoon showers and storms as well. Confidence continues to remain low on overall coverage of showers/storms. Light winds become a bit gusty out of the northwest as we head into this afternoon. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Monday for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Monday for LHZ346. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT Monday for LHZ347-348. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Monday for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342-344. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to midnight EDT Sunday night for LMZ345-346. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322. && $$ DISCUSSION...FEF AVIATION...MSB  957 FXUS63 KSGF 220716 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 216 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal risk for severe storms over southern portions of the area this afternoon and evening. Isolated 1 inch hail and 60 mph winds are the greatest threats. - Potential for locally heavy rainfall and flooding Sunday night into early Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 145 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Thunderstorm chances and potential risks today: Still quite a bit of model variability with respect to convection today, including coverage, probabilities, and instability. This lowers confidence and increases potential for noteworthy changes to the forecast today. Overall expecting shortwave energy (currently noted with convection over northern Nebraska) to move into the later this afternoon and evening. Given timing of arrival around peak heating, there is concern for enough instability for severe weather. However, model spread is pretty high with how the instability picture looks this afternoon. Looking at HREF SBCAPE probabilities of > 2,000 J/kg, values fall rapidly to 20-30% by mid to late afternoon as drier air moves in ahead of the shortwave. This dry air also seems to be diminishing convection as it moves toward the area. More confidence exists in seeing 25-30 kts of deep layer shear. Overall think the NBM 20-40% PoPs with a marginal SPC severe risk seems reasonable given the uncertainty. Looking at an isolated 1 inch hail and 60 mph wind threat. Otherwise look for highs to range from the mid 80s NE to the mid 90s (heat index values up to around 100) SW. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 145 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Sunday: Models hint at some remnant precip late tonight into Sunday morning, but the forecast is mostly dry at this time. Temperatures and heat index values Sunday look similar to today. Late Sunday into early Monday heavy rainfall and flooding threat: A strong upper ridge to the W will lead to relatively strong upper level flow from the NW while models now generally agree on a surface low over Oklahoma and 850mb trough from the northern plains to over the surface low. This surface low leads to a strong pressure gradient in the low levels, and a resulting SE LLJ. At the same time, an 850mb front will be stalled over the region (currently looking like the southwestern CWA, but limited confidence in location), with elevated instability above the front. This should result in convection in vicinity of the front. The strong S-SE low level flow counters the upper level flow to result in slow storm motions that are near parallel to the 850mb front, so also looking at potential for training storms. Moisture transport from the Gulf of America will be strong with the low level flow, resulting in PWAT values over 2 inches, as shown by multiple models, which is 150-175% of normal. These factors may lead to locally heavy rainfall and flooding, but many factors need to come together for this. Uncertainty does exist, including in the unusual situation of a surface low sitting over Oklahoma in late August, the placement of the 850mb front, the strength of the low level jet, and instability. Currently, the NBM shows 50-60% PoPs over the southwestern CWA and 30-50% elsewhere. Through the rest of next week, we will see some low end chances for showers and storms as we generally remain under NW flow aloft. Predictability will generally be low for any precip chances. The pattern also keeps a temperature gradient across the area, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s NE to the mid to upper 90s (along with heat index values in the upper 90s to mid 100s) SW. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 There is around a 30% chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, but confidence is quite limited until a potential incoming thunderstorm complex gets closer to the area. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Titus LONG TERM...Titus AVIATION...Titus  939 FXUS64 KMOB 220716 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 216 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 215 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Very hot conditions continue today with peak heat indices in the 108 to 112 range. - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon will continue to be capable of producing brief intense rainfall, excessive lightning, and strong to damaging wind gusts. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Hot and generally drier conditions are expected through the weekend. Lower rain chances are expected thanks to dry air aloft filtering into the region from the north as an upper trough amplifies over the Northeast. Boundary layer mixing each afternoon will help lower surface dew points enough to keep heat indices below advisory criteria despite high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s. However, a few localized heat index values of 108-110 cannot be ruled out near the coast where less mixing occurs with the sea breeze. Sunday will be the hotter of the two days for most areas. Drier thermodynamic profiles will suppress convective development this weekend, with PWATs falling to around 1.5 inches or lower. However, instability will remain quite high, so any sufficient convergence along the sea breeze or confluence bands could still produce an isolated storm or two each afternoon. With the dry air mass in place aloft, DCAPE values will be very high (around 1500 J/kg), so any storm that manages to initiate would carry the potential for strong microburst winds. That said, PoPs remain capped at around 10-20%. It may also be worth noting, several CAMs suggest a decaying MCS dropping southeastward could encroach on our northwestern counties this evening, but confidence is too low at this time to warrant more than 20% PoPs. The northwest flow regime will become increasingly active next week as moisture returns by Monday, with PWATs approaching 2 inches, then gradually increasing through Thursday as ensemble mean PWATs reach around 2.2 inches. Multiple shortwave impulses rounding the eastern periphery of the strong mid-level ridge centered over the Southern Plains and Desert Southwest will track southeastward toward the northern Gulf Coast. While the precise timing and location of individual impulses and associated convection remains uncertain, this general pattern should bring periodic rounds of unsettled weather to the region through the week. Deterministic guidance is fairly consistent in showing the first prominent shortwave approaching from the northwest during the day on Monday, introducing increased cloud cover and higher rain chances. The next main shortwave looks to impact the region in the Wednesday- Thursday timeframe, potentially bringing a more substantial threat for widespread showers and storms given the deeper moisture in place. Trends will be monitored for any flash flood or severe potential. Even in the absence of these disturbances, ample moisture and instability will favor scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms, primarily focused along the sea breeze and outflow boundary interactions. Increased cloud cover and rainfall should keep temperatures closer to average next week. Highs are forecast generally in the low to mid 90s with heat indices peaking in the 100-107 range. At the beaches, a Low risk of rip currents continues through early next week. JGC/98 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period outside of isolated showers and thunderstorms that will develop this afternoon, mainly along the coast. Brief periods of IFR/MVFR conditions and gusty winds will be possible in and around showers and thunderstorms. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 95 74 97 74 / 10 0 20 10 Pensacola 93 77 95 78 / 20 10 20 10 Destin 90 79 94 80 / 20 0 20 10 Evergreen 97 71 98 71 / 10 0 10 0 Waynesboro 98 73 99 72 / 0 20 10 10 Camden 96 72 96 71 / 0 10 10 10 Crestview 95 72 98 72 / 20 0 20 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  031 FXUS63 KLMK 220718 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 318 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * A cold front will bring a chance for showers and storms this afternoon. A few storms may become strong east of I-65, with the main severe hazards being gusty to damaging winds and hail. * Mild and dry conditions are expected for Sunday through Tuesday. * Warming temperatures and low rain chances return by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Clear skies and calm winds has allowed for valley fog to develop. Fog will begin to burn off as the sun rises. A shortwave trough will move through the region today, bringing a surface cold front with it. Given that these features will be moving through in the afternoon, this will bring a lifting mechanism to present moisture and ample instability. Looking to see showers and storms develop late morning and into the early afternoon along and ahead of the cold front. 25kts of 0-6km shear and 3500 J/kg of SBCAPE will allow for a few strong to severe storms. Main hazards will be damaging winds and hail. As the cold front pushes southeast over the region, it will bring showers and storms with it. Main timeframe is 1PM to 8PM ET. The greatest threat area will be over northern and eastern Kentucky. Overnight, skies will clear and winds will become light. With recent precip from afternoon showers, patchy fog development will be possible. Drier air will build into the region and allow temperatures to fall into the low-to-mid 60s by Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Drier and slightly cooler air will remain over the region through early next week as high pressure and northwesterly flow aloft dominate. Morning lows will be in the low 60s and some areas falling into the upper 50s. Afternoon dew points are expected to be in the 50s and low 60s, which will lend to more comfortable conditions. Tuesday, we will see ridging over the western CONUS begin to broaden and push into the mid-Mississippi Valley. This will increase temperatures in the lower Ohio Valley back to near normal. At the same time, a warm front will push northeast into the Tennessee Valley. If this front makes it into the lower Ohio Valley, we will see increased moisture and chances for showers and storms. If this front stays to the southwest, we will likely remain dry through mid next week. Thursday, a trough will deepen and move through the Ohio Valley, bringing a weak cold front with it. This system will likely bring another chance for showers and storms. Behind the cold front, drier air will move into the region. Though, temperatures will remain around normal. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected to continue through the remainder of the overnight. RGA and HNB may see a brief dip in VIS as patchy fog is possible. Any fog will burn off within an hour or two of sunrise. Winds will pick up out of the southwest ahead of a cold front moving in from the north. As this front passes through in the afternoon, winds will gust up to 22kts and shift to the northwest. PROB30s are currently in the TAFs from about 15-23Z for showers and storms along the front. With sunset, winds will relax and precip will dissipate. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRW LONG TERM...SRW AVIATION...SRW  167 FXUS62 KMHX 220722 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 322 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Flood Watch has been cancelled early. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Increased risk of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall continues today 2) Drier air and a reduced risk of thunderstorms Sunday and Monday, especially inland. A thunderstorm risk may linger along the coast. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A mid-level shortwave will lift slowly northeast along the coast of the Carolinas this morning, then shift away from the coast this afternoon. An attendant area of low pressure will also lift northeast along the coast while pulling a warm front north with it. The SFC low and warm front are expected to provide an area of enhanced low-level convergence along their trek up the coast. How close to the coast the low travels, and how much instability can be realized, will be important factors for which areas see the heaviest rainfall rates today. Given how convectively overturned the airmass is from yesterday, it may be that the instability gradient will reside right along the immediate coast, which would favor areas from coastal Onslow northeast through the OBX for the heaviest rainfall today. It's also possible that the instability gradient remains just offshore, keeping the higher rainfall rates offshore as well. Regardless, the heaviest rainfall axis should reside east of where the heaviest rainfall axis was yesterday, and east of where the Flood Watch originally covered. In light of that, the Flood Watch has been cancelled, and a watch is not currently anticipated for the coastal areas today due to 1) sandy soils which can be harder to flood, and 2) uncertainty regarding whether or not the higher instability will develop along the coast or offshore. Further inland, showers and scattered thunderstorms remain possible, but rainfall rates should be lower than yesterday due to less instability. However, some instances of minor poor drainage flooding may still occur. KEY MESSAGE 2...An anomalously strong upper level trough is forecast to translate east from the Great Lakes to the Northeast U.S. Sunday and Monday. Meanwhile, an associated strong cold front is forecast to push east across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas with much drier air in tow behind it. Normally this would spell a reduced risk of thunderstorms for ENC, and for most areas it probably will. However, recent guidance has started to trend slower with the front's eastward progression as the upper level forcing shifts NE away from the region, leaving the tail end of the front to potentially stall near the coast of the Carolinas. There appears to be 2 possible scenarios at this point, each of which is outlined below. SCENARIO 1: The front clears the coast of ENC. This scenario favors a reduced risk of convection areawide along with slightly below normal overnight lows and lower humidity. This scenario was previously favored, but has recently lost some model support. SCENARIO 2: The front makes it to the coast, but then stalls. In this scenario, dry conditions are favored inland, but with a risk of thunderstorms lingering along the coast. Interestingly, this scenario offers the potential for a sneaky strong to severe thunderstorm risk as drier mid-level air becomes more supportive of damaging downbursts. Lift and shear could also be enhanced as the area would remain in the entrance region of a strong upper jet. Lift could also be enhanced if a surface low rides up along the stalled front. Machine learning guidance do not show much of a signal for strong to severe convection, while the ECMWF's EFI guidance does show a decent signal. This scenario has been gaining some support in recent runs. For now, much of ENC is likely to remain dry Sunday and Monday, but for coastal areas, the thunderstorm risk is something worth keeping an eye on. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecast confidence is low to moderate over the next 24 hours. An area of LIFR CIGs has recently developed across the coastal plain of ENC and this is expected to continue expanding north through the night. Guidance suggests that once LIFR conditions set in, they will stay in place through early Saturday morning. However, obs west of the coastal plain show a mix of VFR and LIFR conditions, suggesting the are of LIFR CIGs may be transient. For now the TAFs will reflect the more pessimistic scenario, with LIFR conditions holding on much of the night. One caveat is an area of light to moderate RA lifting north from near KILM. This may disrupt the low CIGs some, especially from KOAJ to KEWN. On Saturday, CIGs are forecast to rise to MVFR levels, with VFR conditions potentially not returning until early Saturday evening. The TSRA risk is expected to remain low overnight for all TAF sites. The risk is then expected to increase after 11z/12z Saturday as an upper level wave lifts north through the area. The greatest TSRA risk is expected from KOAJ to KEWN, with a somewhat lower risk at KISO and KPGV. In light of this, I dropped the TSRA mention down from VCTS to PROB30 for those two sites. TSRA will be capable of LIFR/IFR VIS and gusty winds to 40kt. Outlook: A stronger cold front is forecast to reach the area on Sunday, but guidance now suggests it may stall along the coast through Monday. Should this occur, the TSRA risk would linger along the coast longer than previously forecast. However, even in that scenario, the risk may remain just east of the TAF sites. && .MARINE... Low pressure will lift northeast along the coast of the Carolinas this morning, then shift away from the area this afternoon. There will be an increased risk of thunderstorms along this low, especially for the central and southern waters. The inland rivers and sound and the northern coastal waters will still have a risk of thunderstorms today, but the risk looks a bit lower compared to yesterday. The low is not particularly strong, therefore winds should remain below 25kt for most waters. The exception is the outer coastal waters where occasional gusts to 25kt can be expected where the gradient will be the strongest. For the nearshore coastal waters, seas of 2-3ft are expected through tonight. For the outer coastal waters, seas of 3-5ft are expected. Outlook: A strong cold front will move into the ENC waters on Sunday, but may stall over the area through Monday. Where the front stalls is where the thunderstorm risk will be the highest through Monday. Strong winds of 40kt+ and waterspouts will be possible with the strongest storms. Eventually the front is forecast to move away from the area with winds laying down. Seas of 2-4ft are expected through Monday, but then are expected to lay down to around 2ft by Tuesday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RM AVIATION...RM MARINE...RM  193 FXUS66 KOTX 220723 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1223 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory has been extended for Northeastern WA and North Idaho for Saturday. - Saturday will bring critical fire weather conditions across the Inland Northwest due to a combination of isolated to scattered thunderstorms producing gusty outflow winds, along with breezy winds and low relative humidity. - Patchy blowing dust is possible Saturday in the Western Columbia Basin. && .SYNOPSIS... A weather system passing through on Saturday will bring critical fire weather conditions across the Inland Northwest. This is due to a combination of isolated to scattered thunderstorms producing gusty outflow winds, along with breezy winds and low relative humidity. Sunday will remain breezy and dry, but cooler. Temperatures will warm again at the start of next week with breezy conditions returning by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today: A deep low begins its migration into the region. Midlevel moisture is streaming inland ahead of the low bringing heavy mid and high level clouds along with sprinkles and light showers. There has been a few lightning strikes near Lewiston this morning where there are a few midlevel circulations noted within the midlevels. Would not rule out a few strikes with additional activity in Central WA either due to subtle circulations showing up in the water vapor. The air mass is very warm and dry near the surface. As such, any rain falling is largely evaporating but this is leading to erratic wind gusts upwards of 15 to 20 mph. Several of the high resolution models are indicating that a few cells that can drive rain to the surface could result in gusts as high as 40 mph. This band of moisture and shower activity will slowly lift south to north and clear across the International border early Saturday morning and the upper low will begin to migrate to the WA Coast, into the North Cascades overnight and across NE WA and N ID Sunday morning. As the low and associated 500mb cold pool migrates inland, lapse rates will continue to steepen with lower levels remaining in the 90s. Areas of NE WA and N ID will only cool 3-4 degrees from Friday and Heat Advisories have been extended. One of the main concerns for Saturday will be the potential for thunderstorms developing. Initially, storms are expected to fire over the North Cascades where the upper level cooling will arrive closer to midday but as impulses rotate around the low and eject inland the potential for cells to develop over Idaho, Eastern and northern WA will increase. This looks to be closer to late afternoon into the evening hours. Any cells through the day, rain or thunderstorms that produce precipitation shafts will likely result in gusty outflow winds of 25 to 50 mph given the high based nature of this convection, extremely dry subcloud layers, and DCAPES of 500-1500 J/kg. In the most intense outflows, winds could gust closer to 60 mph. This will be nclosely monitored through the day as will lightning strikes and fire starts. Winds will be the other major concern through the day. Away from outflow boundaries, strong synoptic driven winds will develop across a majority of the region, especially the Western Columbia Basin and through the Cascade Gaps. Winds will initially strengthen from the south then shift to the southwest and west late in the day into the evening as cooler air floods inland. Any ongoing or new fires will stand a good chance to be fanned by gusty winds of 25-35 mph. Given our fuel dryness levels, this is very concerning. Red Flag Warnings are in place across the region to account for the synoptic winds, outflow winds, and lightning starts. Generally speaking, the Cascades, Northern Mountains, and Idaho Panhandle are in fire weather highlights for the lightning starts and gusty outflow winds though the Cascades will experience a period of strong synoptic winds Saturday evening as the cooler air floods into the region. This will draw higher humidity levels but it will take several hours for the fuels to react. We expect very little lightning in the Western and Southern Columbia Basin so this will mainly be a wind and low humidity issue. For the eastern Basin, the combination of periods of gusty winds and isolated thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening hour makes this a dual threat for fire weather. We will also need to watch for blowing dust on Saturday around Moses Lake, Ritzville, and Wilbur with a lower threat for Omak than previously thought. The gusty winds could also lead to blowing ash near any fire scars. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue well into the evening and overnight hours while winds remain elevated region-wide. The main threat for thunderstorms on Sunday will be in the morning with the system departing to the east and breezy winds becoming the most impactful weather through the day while temperatures cool back into the 80s. Monday through Friday: Ensembles continue to advertise a progressive weather pattern next week. High pressure moves in Monday and Tuesday promoting a warming and drying trend. This is quickly interrupted by another shortwave Wednesday. The exact depth and track of this through the NW comes with some uncertainty but pattern recognition would suggest another bout of windy conditions and possibly some thunderstorms. The pattern repeats itself again Thursday and Friday with the next system Friday into Saturday. We are not seeing a lot of signs for appreciable rainfall with these systems indicating fire weather concerns will remain elevated or higher as we navigate the end of August. /sb && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFs: An influx of midlevel moisture will bring a 10-30% chance for shower and 5-10% chance for lightning strikes between 06-13z. Brief, gusty, erratic outflow winds around 20 mph will accompany this activity. As this clears, a renewed threat for convection will start in the North Cascades after 19z then expand into the Idaho Panhandle, Eastern WA, and Northern WA 23-06z. Any cells will be capable of strong outflow winds near 50 mph. Confidence is too low for TS in the TAF but there is a 10-20% chance around 00z for KLWS-KPUW-KGEG-KSFF-KCOE. Vsbys at KEAT will degrade this evening around 07-08z as northwest winds bring in smoke from the Little Giant Fire. South to southwest winds will increase in the Columbia Basin, Palouse, and Spokane area in the late morning to early afternoon and shift to west in the evening at KEAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low confidence for TS at terminals but moderate confidence for outflow winds to impact most terminals with speeds of at least 20-30 mph. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 95 59 81 54 86 56 / 10 20 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 95 60 80 53 86 56 / 10 40 10 0 0 0 Pullman 90 51 77 45 85 50 / 10 30 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 97 62 86 58 91 62 / 20 30 0 0 0 0 Colville 94 51 80 44 86 47 / 30 20 20 0 0 0 Sandpoint 93 54 77 47 82 50 / 20 40 10 0 0 0 Kellogg 93 54 76 52 83 54 / 20 40 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake94 55 85 53 88 56 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 93 63 83 61 87 65 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 94 56 84 55 88 58 / 30 20 10 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM PDT this evening for Northeast Mountains-Spokane Area. Red Flag Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT Sunday for Selkirk Mountains of Northeast Washington (Zone 700). Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM PDT this evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern Columbia Basin - Palouse -Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone 701)-Lower Palouse -Snake River (Zone 709)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). Air Quality Alert until 2 PM PDT Monday for Central Chelan County-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM PDT Sunday for East Portion of North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan National Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696)-East Washington North Cascades (Zone 698)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)- Okanogan Highlands and Kettle Mountains (Zone 699)- Okanogan Valley (Zone 703). ID...Heat Advisory until 7 PM PDT this evening for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d'Alene Area-Idaho Palouse- Lewiston Area-Northern Panhandle. Red Flag Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT Sunday for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101). && $$  239 FXUS63 KDLH 220725 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 225 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers exiting by early this morning. Portions of the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin could see a few sprinkles from late this morning through early evening. - Otherwise, dry and sunny for this weekend with lower dewpoints and seasonal high temperatures. Breezy northwest winds for today. - Chilly Saturday and Sunday nights with low temperatures in the 40s and possibly upper 30s in the typical cold spots. No frost is forecast at this time. - The next chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms is early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Today - Sunday: A few remnant rain showers in north-central WI exit to the east by early this morning as a cold front finishes moving through the Northland. Additional accumulation of around 0.1-0.2" or less expected. The rest of this weekend shapes up to be largely dry as northwest flow aloft sets up along with surface high pressure. We may be able to squeeze out a few sprinkles in the MN Arrowhead and portions of northwest WI later this morning through early evening with post-cold front cold-air advection (CAA). A drier low-level airmass in place may keep most of this precipitation in the form of virga rather than precipitation actually reaching the ground. Regardless, measurable precipitation is not forecast. Winds will also be gusty out of the northwest today up to 20-25 mph before becoming light to calm tonight and mostly light on Sunday. High temperatures remain near normal in the 69-78 F range for most of the Northland this weekend. The drier airmass, lighter winds, and mostly clear skies Saturday night and Sunday night will result in chillier low temperatures in the low to upper 40s across much of the Northland. The typical cold spots will likely even touch the upper-30s, though frost is currently not expected. Monday - Wednesday: Shortwave ridging aloft on Monday keeps the Northland dry most of the day. However, an upper-level cut-off low and its attendant surface low traversing the Canadian Prairies this weekend into Monday eventually works its way into and through portions of the Upper Midwest for Monday night into Wednesday, bringing periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Initial warm-frontal showers/storms move into northeast Minnesota for Monday night, then the warm sector of the surface low sets up over portions of the Northland daytime Tuesday, and then the cold front moves through the area from west to east late Tuesday through Tuesday night before exiting the area on Wednesday as the vertically stacked low pressure moves into the Great Lakes. While there is likely to still be some slight adjustments in timing of this system, if the warm sector can set up over the Northland on daytime Tuesday in conjunction with peak heating, there is a non-zero chance that we could see some of the scattered storms become strong to severe ahead of the cold front Tuesday afternoon and evening as instability maximizes along with ample 0-6 km bulk shear of 30-40 knots. The picture for this will become clearer as we get into early next week and the forecast mesoscale features come into better focus. Expect scattered shower and non-severe storm chances to linger into Wednesday as cyclonic flow sets up over the region behind the departing low pressure. With rainfall likely to be scattered with this weather system, precipitation could be hit or miss for portions of the area. The fairly progressive nature of this system also limits residence time and heavy rainfall potential. NBM probabilities of 0.25" or greater Monday night through Wednesday currently range from 20-30% in the Brainerd Lakes into I-35 corridor, to 50-80% in much of the Arrowhead and northern MN, highest near the International Border. Probabilities in much of northwest WI range from 30-60%. Probabilities for >1" fall off substantially to effectively less than 20% across the Northland, with potential likely to be localized to where several thunderstorms move over a given location. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer early next week with highs in the 70s to low-80s Monday through Wednesday and even a few spots of mid-80s on Tuesday, while lows Monday night and Tuesday night fall into the upper 40s to 50s. Late Next Week: The second half of the upcoming work week looks to remain in northwest flow aloft, with surface high pressure returning and bringing drier conditions again as precipitation chances Thursday and Friday remain at 15% or less. Global ensemble guidance diverges regarding the mid- and upper-level pattern going into next weekend, leading to lower confidence in the forecast beyond late next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A few remnant showers are moving out of north-central Wisconsin early during the current overnight as a cold front moves through. Behind this, expect clearing skies with very patchy fog potential in the early morning. Have included some MVFR fog mention at KHYR. However, farther behind the front winds may stay just strong enough above calm to prevent denser fog development at other terminals. Latest weather model guidance shows a 20% or less chance of fog with visibility of 1 mile or less at DLH/HIB/BRD/HYR. If winds go calm, these probabilities may increase, especially for BRD where showers and thunderstorms occurred this past evening. Gusty northwesterly winds increase this morning through early evening, with gusts to around 20-25 kts along with some diurnal cumulus developing late this morning through early evening at most terminals. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 224 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Northwest winds of 5 to 15 kts are expected today, with daytime gusts of 15-20 kts for the North Shore to Twin Ports and in the Outer Apostles to Saxon Harbor. Winds become northerly tonight into early Sunday morning at 15 kts or less for most except up to 20 kts near Grand Portage. Winds become light and variable for the remainder of Sunday into Sunday night before becoming light out of the east to northeast on Monday. No thunderstorms are expected until at least late Monday night. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 224 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A secondary cold front exiting northwest Wisconsin early this morning will lead to an end of isolated showers in north-central Wisconsin prior to sunrise. Breezy northwesterly flow and drier air arrives behind the front for today. Expect afternoon RH today to dip to 30-45% range, with some locally lower values possible in the I-35 corridor east into the northwest Wisconsin Pine Barrens. This will be accompanied by late morning through early evening wind gusts up to 20 mph, locally to 25 mph. Min RH on Sunday drops slightly lower to 30-40% for most areas, with potential for the northwest Wisconsin Pine Barrens to touch the mid to upper-20s with peak afternoon mixing. Winds will be lighter out of the North on Sunday, though a few gusts to 10-15 mph are possible in the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin during the day. Fairly dry again with 30-45% min RH on Monday before moisture increases Monday night through Wednesday as a low pressure system approaches and moves through the area. There will be scattered shower and thunderstorm chances for Monday night through Tuesday, with some wrap around showers/general thunderstorms chances lingering into Wednesday. Widespread, heavy rainfall is not anticipated so appreciable drought relief is not expected. Some spots that see repeated thunderstorms move overhead early next week could pick up locally higher amounts in excess of an inch, but this would be very localized at best and with a less than 20% chance of occurring. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rothstein AVIATION...Rothstein MARINE...Rothstein FIRE WEATHER...Rothstein  888 FXUS63 KLOT 220736 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 236 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to widely scattered shower or storm possible (15-20% chance) this afternoon, mainly near Lake Michigan. - Dangerous swimming conditions expected at Porter County Lake Michigan beaches today, then at all Indiana and Cook County Lake Michigan beaches late tonight and Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A cold front is currently analyzed roughly from a Chicago to Galesburg line early this morning and is continuing to slowly drift south and east out of our forecast area. Generally speaking the better shower and thunderstorm coverage ahead of the front has been in central IL, but a couple of showers have been festering in southern Newton, Jasper, and Benton counties. These showers may briefly produce a rouge lightning strike prior to exiting these areas over the next hour, but otherwise dry conditions are expected for the rest of the night. In the wake of the cold front, winds will become northwesterly and gradually increase in speed through the morning with gusts expected to peak around 20-25 mph (locally up to 30 mph) this afternoon. These northwest winds will build waves on Lake Michigan today and result in dangerous swimming conditions, especially into Porter County, IN beaches. As wind directions become more northerly tonight, the large waves are forecast to pivot westward into Lake (IN) County and Cook County beaches overnight tonight and will persist through Sunday evening. As a result, a Beach Hazard Statement remains in effect for Porter County, IN starting at 10 AM today and lasting through Sunday evening with new Beach Hazard Statement issued for Lake (IN) and Cook Counties starting late tonight through Sunday evening. If planning to head to the beach today make sure to check the surf conditions and remember to stay dry when waves are high! Aside from the breezy north-northwest winds today, mostly dry conditions are expected as drier air filters into the region. However, broad upper troughing over the Great Lakes is expected to linger through much of today and will allow the shortwave trough in northern WI to pivot overhead this afternoon. While overall moisture looks to be meager to say the least, forecast soundings continue to show some modest instability and some low- level moisture lingering near Lake Michigan which may be sufficient to kick off isolated to widely scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm this afternoon (15-20% chance). That said, no severe weather is expected today and any showers/storms that do develop should wane around or shortly after sunset. Otherwise, expect mostly to partly cloudy skies with seasonably cool temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. The upper troughing will gradually shift into the eastern Great Lakes tonight as high pressure builds into the Midwest. This will result in completely rain-free conditions for Sunday, Monday and most likely Tuesday. However, continued northwest flow will keep temperatures on the cooler side for this time of year with highs Sunday and Monday in the mid to upper 70s and overnight lows in the 50s to around 60. Temperatures are forecast to moderate a bit on Tuesday as winds turn more southerly, but highs still look to top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s at best. While we enjoy a well deserved break in the weather, another shortwave trough is forecast to be traversing across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains early next week before pivoting into the Great Lakes towards the middle of the week. Guidance continues to show that a cold front should develop ahead of this shortwave and is progged to move through the region sometime during the Wednesday to Thursday timeframe. While there is overall good agreement on this evolution amongst ensemble and deterministic guidance, there is a lot of uncertainty around when exactly the wave and associated front will arrive in northern IL and northwest IN thus making this part of the forecast lower confidence. Bottom line expect to see increasing shower and thunderstorm chances towards the middle portion of next week and keep checking back for more specifics as we get closer in time. Though, temperatures should also be increasing towards more typical late August readings ahead of this system too. Yack && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A cold front will move through the airspace this morning causing winds to transition from a southwesterly to northwesterly direction. A 2 to 4 hour period of MVFR cigs may move down the lake toward daybreak behind the front, favoring GYY where a TEMPO for BKN015 has been introduced. Thereafter, northwesterly winds will increase in magnitude as mixing commences with a few gusts up to 20 kt from mid morning through early afternoon. A few showers and thunderstorms may develop during the 19-23Z tine window particularly near ORD/MDW/GYY, but opted to withhold mention for now given current expectations for sparse coverage (<30% change at any given terminal). Toward the end of the TAF period, wind magnitudes should decrease toward the 5 to 10 kt range. Borchardt && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Sunday evening for ILZ103-ILZ104. IN...Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Sunday evening for INZ001. Beach Hazards Statement from 10 AM CDT this morning through Sunday evening for INZ002. LM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for Wilmette Harbor to Calumet Harbor IL-Calumet Harbor to Gary IN. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT Sunday for Gary to Burns Harbor IN-Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  883 FXUS63 KPAH 220736 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 236 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 25 to 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, and western Kentucky. - A few storms this afternoon could become severe with damaging winds being the main threat. - A daily 15 to 25% chance of showers and thunderstorms is forecast during the afternoon and evening hours Monday through Thursday. - Temperature and humidity levels will remain near typical late August values. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 At the synoptic level early this morning, strong H5 ridging remains centered over the western CONUS, with increasing troughing over the Great Lakes and northeast CONUS. At the surface, low pressure is deepening over the northern Great Lakes, with an associated cold front moving into the southern Great Lakes and Midwest. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms associated with the cold front is currently moving southward across central IL. While on a weakening trend, this activity may impact locations along the I-64 corridor early this morning. For the rest of today, the chances of convection have increased during the afternoon hours, particularly across the southern half of the forecast area. Latest CAMs are showing moisture pooling ahead of the frontal boundary, boosting forecast CAPE values to 2500-3500 J/kg, along with DCAPE values of 1000-1400 J/kg. While shear will be marginal at best for severe convection (around 30 kts in the 00-06 km layer), the environment looks more supportive for a few severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Tonight, the front will clear the area, bringing a return of quiet weather for Sunday. However, by Monday through most of next week, the mid-level flow regime will become NW as the area remains sandwiched between the western ridge and northeast trough. As shortwaves rotate around the periphery of the ridge, daily chances of showers and thunderstorms are forecast during the afternoon and evening hours Monday through Thursday. Predictability is especially low in these setups, so timing out the precise arrival of the highest precipitation chances and severe thunderstorm risks is difficult at this range. Temperature and humidity levels will remain near typical late August values through next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1042 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 VFR conditions are expected through much of this TAF issuance; however, some shallow ground fog will be possible late tonight into Saturday morning at CGI/PAH. Otherwise, light winds and improving conditions can be expected through the day Saturday. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AZ/DWS AVIATION...KC  851 FXUS64 KFWD 220735 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 235 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures near or over 100 degrees will continue through next week. An Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory remain in effect for portions of North and Central Texas through Saturday evening. - Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, and a few could be strong with gusty winds. However, most areas will remain rain-free into next week. - Hot temperatures and low humidity will contribute to increased wildfire starts through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 217 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Widespread hot weather is once again expected this afternoon across much of North and Central Texas thanks to mid-level ridging that extends well into the Northern Plains. The Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory will continue through the rest of today as temperatures in parts of North Texas reach 109 degrees and heat index values in Central Texas approach 109 degrees. Regarding the expected hot weather, there is some degree of uncertainty in today's highs given the potential for high clouds to stream into the region late this morning and early this afternoon. Similar to yesterday, there will be the potential for a large temperature spread within short distances. Guidance has continued to show better high cloud cover mainly along the Red River Counties, therefore, today's expected highs were lowered by a few degrees. With the lowering of the highs, Montague and Cooke counties were removed from the Excessive Heat Warning and placed in a Heat Advisory. The center of a mid-level high pressure system remains positioned over the Four Corners region, leaving North and Central Texas on the eastern to southeastern periphery of high. A disturbance, currently near over Kansas will continue to shift southward through the day. With the relative weakness in heights, the weak forcing attributed to the approaching shortwave may generate a few showers and storms north of the Red River this afternoon. Steering flow would push this convection south/southeastward, mainly into portions of North Texas west of I-35. Should this happen, a few showers and storms may migrate into our region this evening. Given the wide spread in temperature and dew points, gusty outflows will be possible from any storms that develops. Although the overall severe weather threat will be low, those winds may still be capable of producing damage to loose outdoor decor or small tree-limbs. Storm chances will diminish after sunset with the loss of daytime heating, leaving behind precipitation-free conditions through the rest of the night. Another warm morning is in store for much of the region with Sunday's lows in the mid 70s to lower 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 217 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 On Sunday, the center of the high will shift closer to North and Central Texas, once again increasing subsidence. The subsidence will likely keep any showers and storms at bay with yet another day of temperatures in the 102-108 range. Heat headlines will likely be extended later today to account for Sunday's heat threats. As we begin a new work week, North and Central Texas will continue to be positioned to the east of the high which keeps our region in persistent northerly to northwesterly flow aloft. Models continue to advertise a series of shortwaves migrating across the region each afternoon, which would lead to at least a low potential for afternoon showers or storms. Given coverage and timing remain highly uncertain, precipitation chances next week will remain below 15%. With increasing afternoon clouds expected, a slight downward trend in temperatures can also be expected with highs largely below 104 degrees. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are present at all TAF sites early this morning and are expected to prevail through the period. Winds will veer SW this morning and back SE this evening, remaining light (<10KT) throughout. Thunderstorms may cross the Red River into North TX late this evening, but confidence is low in impacts to the D10 TRACON given the low chance of storm development and uncertainty in location. Timing has trended later to between 0-4Z. Model guidance is in greater agreement that, if storms do form, areas west of the Metroplex are more likely to be impacted. Thus, while still a low-confidence scenario, a temporary northerly wind shift due to outflow seems more likely than storms directly over the Metroplex sites. Since this wind shift is uncertain, dependent on storms, and late in the TAF period, we have opted to keep it unmentioned and will reassess in future TAF cycles. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 104 83 106 84 / 10 10 10 0 Waco 104 80 105 81 / 10 10 0 0 Paris 99 75 102 79 / 20 10 10 0 Denton 104 79 106 82 / 10 20 10 0 McKinney 103 78 105 81 / 10 10 10 0 Dallas 105 82 107 84 / 10 10 10 0 Terrell 104 78 106 81 / 10 10 10 0 Corsicana 104 80 106 81 / 10 10 0 0 Temple 104 79 106 79 / 10 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 107 77 108 79 / 10 20 10 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091-092- 100>104-115>121-130>134. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ093>095-105>107- 122-123-129-135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Hernandez  082 FXUS65 KBYZ 220740 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 140 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms possible for the weekend. A few storms may produce strong winds. Localized heavy rainfall a threat as well. - Drier with seasonal temps next week with just an occasional chance of precipitation. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Friday... An upper low approaching from the Pacific northwest will turn upper level flow out of the southwest, allowing increased moisture (PWATs 150-200% of normal) to enter the region. A weak shortwave moving through the flow will provide enough energy for showers and thunderstorms (30-60% chance, highest over the Absaroka/Beartooth mountains) with a few strong to severe storms possible in the afternoon and evening over the west. The main threat with any stronger storms will be wind gusts up to 60 mph. Any storm will be capable of producing pockets of heavy rain. Sunday into Monday, the upper low slides east along the Canadian border and an associated cold front is expected to drop through the area late Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms (30-60% chance) will move through again Sunday afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe storms will again be possible, with strong wind gusts and pockets of heavy rain as the main threats. Areas west of Billings could see a period of elevated fire weather concerns late Sunday as pre-frontal conditions bring westerly wind gusts of 15-30 mph, and humidity will be down near 20 percent. Behind the cold front, Monday will be mostly dry and a few degrees cooler than Sunday. Upper level ridging then builds in by Tuesday, but weak impulses and slightly above normal moisture (PWATs around 110-140% of normal) will allow for a low daily chance for showers and thunderstorms to continue through the end of the work week. Highs today will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Sunday will be hotter, with highs generally in the 90s. Then, Monday and Tuesday will be slightly cooler, with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s. Temperatures then warm slightly, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s through Friday. Archer .AVIATION... VFR conditions will generally prevail through the day. Look for relatively brisk east/northeast winds for many locations. By 18Z, expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over the Beartooth/Absaroka mountains, spreading east/northeast through the afternoon. Another round of showers and storms will move into the western routes of south central MT again this evening, again tracking east through the evening. Some thunderstorms may briefly reduce visibility to under 5sm and produce surface gusts to 45kts. BT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 091 065/095 063/087 061/087 062/091 063/091 061/088 3/T 34/T 40/U 00/U 00/B 21/B 20/B LVM 088 056/089 052/087 052/086 052/088 052/087 050/086 4/T 44/T 20/U 01/U 22/T 41/U 21/U HDN 094 064/096 061/088 057/089 057/093 059/093 058/090 3/T 22/T 40/U 00/B 00/U 21/B 20/B MLS 091 068/095 065/087 059/086 059/091 063/091 061/089 1/B 31/B 40/U 00/U 00/U 21/B 21/U 4BQ 090 067/094 065/087 059/087 059/090 063/091 061/089 1/B 31/B 30/U 10/U 01/U 21/B 20/B BHK 088 060/092 059/088 053/086 051/089 056/090 055/089 0/B 43/T 20/U 00/U 00/U 12/T 21/B SHR 091 060/092 058/086 056/085 054/088 056/090 054/087 3/T 34/T 21/U 13/T 11/U 11/B 11/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings  255 FXUS64 KLZK 220742 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 -A Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place across the entire state of Arkansas for storms which are expected to impact the state between this early afternoon into the late evening. -The main hazards with storms which become severe will be damaging wind gusts and a few instances of large hail. -High temperatures across most of central and southern Arkansas will manage to reach and/or eclipse the century mark before the frontal boundary and associated scattered storms move into Arkansas. -Heat Advisory remains in effect across southern Arkansas as heat index values will manage to reach between 105 and 109 for a period of several hours before storms are expected move into this part of the state this evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The continued trend of northwesterly flow aloft over Arkansas will remain. An upper lvl shortwave progged to move over the state will allow a weak front to drop down into Arkansas by early afternoon and track southward across the state. The airmass ahead of this advancing weak cold front will be hot and humid with plenty of CAPE allowing for the expected development of scattered thunderstorms across the state between early this afternoon into late this evening. The Storm Prediction Center has designated the entire state of Arkansas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather today with the main hazards possible as damaging wind gusts and a few instances of large hail with any storm that does manage to become severe. Before the anticipated arrival of the weak cold front and associated scattered convection, high temperatures are expected to reach or exceed 100 degrees across most of central and southern Arkansas. A challenging high temperature forecast for today as locations across the state, especially in central and southern Arkansas will likely experience compression heating just ahead of the advancing front where temperatures will quickly, but briefly rise a few degrees before the frontal boundary overtakes a location. For this reason and overall trends during this heatwave have trended toward NBM 75% and NBM 90% values. For the remainder of the forecast period, from Sunday through the upcoming workweek, expect hot temperatures to persist with a few days of relief possible which would lower temperatures a tad to normal values for this time of the year as multiple weak frontal boundaries are anticipated to move across the state which will promote appreciable POP chances (expected on Monday) and modest POP chances (on Wednesday into Wednesday Night). && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Expect VFR flight category for the majority of the forecast period between early Saturday morning and early Sunday morning across all sites. However, beginning early Saturday afternoon -TSRA will begin to impact most sites for the remainder of the forecast period. The threat of -TSRA has been captured by TEMPO groups at each terminal. Expect if a site is impacted directly by -TSRA, then VSBY may drop to as low as MVFR or briefly IFR flight category. Surface wind gusts may reach in excess of 35 knots in the strongest of storms. Timing will likely be better captured at the 12Z issuance of the TAF forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 99 71 94 70 / 60 20 0 50 Camden AR 103 72 99 73 / 10 30 10 20 Harrison AR 92 68 89 68 / 40 20 20 60 Hot Springs AR 102 73 97 73 / 30 20 10 30 Little Rock AR 102 74 96 74 / 50 30 10 50 Monticello AR 102 74 97 75 / 20 30 10 30 Mount Ida AR 101 71 96 72 / 30 20 10 20 Mountain Home AR 93 69 90 68 / 40 20 10 60 Newport AR 97 71 93 71 / 50 30 0 40 Pine Bluff AR 100 72 96 72 / 30 20 10 40 Russellville AR 99 72 94 72 / 30 20 10 40 Searcy AR 99 71 94 71 / 60 20 0 50 Stuttgart AR 99 73 95 73 / 50 30 10 50 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ052-053-062>069. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...74  307 FXUS65 KRIW 220744 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 144 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increased moisture brings an increased chance of showers and storms across the area today. Some storms could have heavy rain, strong wind or hail. - The chance of showers and storms lingers through much of the week, although today looks the most active. - Temperatures will gradually decrease to near normal levels for much of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 141 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The monsoon has once again arrived across the area, I believe this is the third or fourth appearance so far. So far, it has behaved. We do have some light showers across mainly the western half of the area but nothing heavy so far. The main concern in the forecast will be the potential for heavy rain and possible strong thunderstorms today. Right now, in this meteorologists opinion, potential is mixed for if we will see widespread of either. In regards to heavy rain, the main factor will be the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. Dew points have been slow to rise so far, but they should this afternoon, rising into the 50s in portions of the Big Horn Basin as well as Johnson and Natrona Counties. Precipitable water values should also be rather high. The GFS, for example, has precipitable water values about 175 to 200 percent of normal. This had been overdone by around 15 to 20 percent the past few events though. Even with this, precipitable water values over 150 percent of normal look fairly likely. There will also be some forcing in the form of a shortwave moving in from the west. This should enhance chances for all areas, so everyone will have a chance. The best chance still looks to be in northwestern Wyoming, generally a 1 in 2 chance, and there is decent model agreement in this. As for severe thunderstorms, there looks to be a decent amount of instability. This is especially so in the favored portions of our area, mainly East of the Bighorn Range in Johnson and Natrona Counties. Lifted indices fall as low as minus 4 to minus 5 with close to 1500 J/Kg of surface CAPE here. There is also a decent amount of directional shear in this area. This, plus the ample moisture, may increase the hail threat in this area. We do have a marginal risk of severe weather in portions of Johnson and Natrona Counties, and this could be expanded westward with the 13Z update. All areas could have a thunderstorm but with less instability and shear most storms would be sub severe. However, there are some factors against possible hazards. In regards to flooding and thunderstorms, it is cloud cover. Much of the area, especially western Wyoming, is covered by clouds as I write this around midnight. If it stays mostly cloudy for much of the day, this could limit instability somewhat and decrease the chance of stronger thunderstorms. There will likely be some areas that will be sunnier though, especially further east. And there is one more mitigating factor for heavy rain and possible flooding. With the shortwave moving through, there will be some steering flow today. It won't be strong, but most areas will have 15 to 25 knots at 500 millibars which should keep storms moving somewhat. We continue to have a marginal risk of excessive rainfall, and persistent storms could still cause flooding. But it may decrease the chance somewhat. The shortwave should clear the area by midnight, but some showers will likely linger through the night. As for temperatures, more cloud cover should lower them around 5 to 8 degrees, but it will still be above normal for almost all areas. The forecast from Sunday through much of next week looks fairly similar. We will remain on the edge of the ridge. Some monsoonal moisture will stick around, with precipitable water values remaining above average through much of the period. However, they do look lower than today, so the chance of convection should be somewhat lower. Most guidance favors western Wyoming at this time. However, given the poor performance of the models in regards to timing and placement of the showers and storms, confidence in the details remains low. Temperatures will also cool off somewhat, back down to near to just slightly above normal levels for late August. There continue to be some indications of drier air moving in for the end of next week or next weekend, possibly shutting off the monsoon and bring a period of warm, but not really hot weather for the end of August. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1015 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Light rain showers will continue over western portions through 12Z. PROB30 groups remain in the forecast at KJAC, KPNA and KBPI. Mountaintop obscurations will be possible through this time. These showers will cross the Divide into the central basins after sunrise Saturday morning, moving toward the northeast. The greatest chance for thunderstorms will occur as this wave crosses the Bighorns and moves over Johnson County by 21Z. Additional showers will be possible across the rest of the area in the afternoon, but confidence has decreased in the threat level. Confidence has shifted to thunderstorms moving over far western portions by 23Z/00Z, quickly spreading eastward through the rest of the period. Have adjusted the timing of PROB30 groups for all TAF sites, accordingly. Wind gusts of 30 to 40kt and marginal VFR conditions continue to be the main threats with the storms. The storms in Johnson and Natrona counties could be strong to severe. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...LaVoie/Gerhardt  849 FXUS61 KCLE 220752 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 352 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... There is now a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms from our central and eastern Ohio Counties points east into Northwest PA this afternoon and evening. Increased rain chances outside of the "snowbelt" Sunday afternoon/evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected to develop and then move east-southeast across the area this afternoon and evening. Some storms may turn severe with pockets of damaging winds the main risk. Isolated hail and locally heavy rain are secondary threats. 2) Below average temperatures arrive to end the weekend and start the upcoming week. Periodic lake-enhanced rain showers will primarily impact portions of Northeast OH and Northwest PA late tonight through at least Monday night, with a few showers or storms elsewhere Sunday afternoon/evening. 3) Outside of lake-enhanced showers, a period of dry and tranquil weather is expected the first half of the week. The next potential weather maker brings chances for showers and a few storms late Wednesday and primarily Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The combination of a low-level trough axis and modest warm air/ moisture advection has been fueling some thunderstorms early this morning, primarily over Lake Erie but extending southwest into parts of North Central OH as of 3 AM. While this activity is generally favored to lift east-northeast and diminish this morning, it may still be on the scope as the rest of the world awakens, particularly over and close to Lake Erie. While it may not be an entirely dry morning given this activity, greater shower and storm potential, including a risk for some strong to severe storms, awaits until the afternoon and evening hours. Aloft, a shortwave will dig into the central Great Lakes today into tonight while taking on a neutral to slightly negative tilt. This will encourage a weak surface low to slowly deepen while drifting out of northern Michigan and into southern Ontario late today and tonight. A pre-frontal trough is still expected to cross the area this afternoon and early evening from west to east, with a strong cold front arriving in Northwest OH late this afternoon and surging southeast across the area through this evening. Large scale forcing for ascent will maximize late this afternoon and evening as a vort max rounds the base of the deepening shortwave and rotates into the northern OH/Lake Erie vicinity, though more modest forcing is evident even earlier in the day. Showers/storms are expected to begin developing during the midday or early afternoon timeframe, with activity peaking in coverage, intensity, and organization during the late afternoon and early evening. Showers/storms are expected to exit southeast this evening with the cold front, with activity quickly transitioning to lake-enhanced showers later tonight. Activity will likely blossom along both the pre-frontal trough and a lake breeze near the northeastern shoreline near and east of the I-77 corridor this afternoon, and across Northwest OH along the cold front itself. Given the increasing forcing into the late afternoon/evening and multiple triggers for convection, it's likely that eastern portions of our area see the most widespread convection and greatest overall rain amounts, with some areas likely seeing multiple rounds in quick succession. With that said, nearly all CAMs develop fairly numerous storms along the cold front as it pushes across our western counties, so odds are that a large majority of the area will see a shower or storm this afternoon/evening on the balance. There is some potential for both severe weather and locally heavy rain with storms thisafternoon/evening, though the overall setup will not favor higher end convective hazards. Clouds and perhaps some ongoing shower/thunder activity will slow heating today, though weak to moderate, uncapped instability (1000-2000 J/KG of MLCAPE) is expected to develop through the afternoon as low-level lapse rates steepen to around 8C/km. Some pockets of dry air aloft will contribute to modest DCAPE values in the 500-800 J/KG range. These marginal thermodynamics, coupled with increasing forcing and modest deep- layer shear values of 20-30kt, can support loosely organized convection. The primary severe threat today will be locally damaging winds, most likely with any small lines or clusters that evolve but also possible with any more intense cells. Isolated large hail is also possible, mainly with any updrafts that exhibit transient rotation which is most likely within storms along/east of the pre-frontal trough where surface flow will be more backed. While the overall lower-end environment and potential for storms to quickly get "messy" and work over the atmosphere puts a lid on severe potential today, most CAMs have quite a bit of convection across our area with some organization depicted, giving the SPC confidence to introduce a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather for much of the area east of the I-75 corridor (and a Marginal/level 1 of 5 for I-75). In terms of heavy rain potential, storm motions from the west- southwest will be fairly parallel to the incoming cold front, so the potential for multiple rounds and/or transient training does exist. Precipitable water values and warm cloud depths are not especially concerning for efficient rain-rates, though we will need to monitor portions of Northeast OH/Northwest PA for repeated storms or training convection that can still drop localized 2-3" rain amounts. Otherwise, area-average QPF will generally be in the 0.25-1.00" range through this evening, least across Northwest OH and greatest across Northeast OH/Northwest PA. The WPC has introduced a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall/localized flash flooding across Northeast OH and Northwest PA in their latest excessive rainfall outlook. KEY MESSAGE 2... After pulling a cold front across the area this evening, the surface low and upper trough across the central/eastern Great Lakes will continue to deepen through Sunday while beginning to stack, cut-off, and slow. The system will then start to slowly fill/weaken Sunday night and Monday while drifting to the east- northeast across southeastern Canada and New England. The seasonably chilly airmass pulled in behind the cold front and lingering moist cyclonic flow behind the stacking surface low/ upper trough will give us an early taste of fall to end the weekend and start the week...including some lake-enhanced rain. 850mb temperatures will bottom out at 6-9C Sunday night into early Monday, with 700mb temperatures dipping a bit below 0C as 500mb temperatures fall to around -20C. Most of the area will dry out late this evening into the overnight as the cold front exits, though as cooler west- northwest flow aligns over the ~25C lake waters some lake- enhanced showers will begin developing and moving into Northeast OH/Northwest PA. A vort max and low-level trough axis will cross the region very late tonight into early Sunday, likely causing activity to peak in organization. While some lake effect showers will continue on Sunday across Northeast OH/Northwest PA, the activity will likely lose organization and intensity for several hours after the morning trough passage. Another potent vort max and low-level trough axis will drop in from the northwest late Sunday afternoon and evening, bringing another uptick in lake-enhanced shower activity over and east-southeast of Lake Erie from as far westas the Islands and Sandusky points east. There will also be an uptick in showers across the rest of the area with the trough passage late Sunday afternoon and evening. Chilly, cyclonic west-northwest flow continues through at least Monday night or early Tuesday and some lake effect/ enhanced shower activity remains likely. However, there will likely be a trend for activity to become less intense/organized later Sunday night and beyond as high pressure builds in. A possible exception is Monday night when another vort max and trough passage is hinted at. That could cause one last uptick in the lake-driven showers, especially farther east. In terms of any hazards, instability will be deep enough over the lake for some thunder/lightning potential with the lake- enhanced activity...especially through the first half of Sunday night. The overall set-up with a somewhat shorter west-northwest fetch and some wind shifts through the event isn't overly favorable for intense, banded rainfall with a flash flood risk across the snowbelt. However, rain amounts will gradually add up (especially through Sunday evening) where lake-enhanced showers are most frequent and the potential for localized flooding will need to be kept in mind, especially if parts of Northeast OH or Northwest PA see locally heavy rain today. The heaviest rain amounts will likely occur slightly inland from the lakeshore form the Cleveland area points east-northeast. Otherwise, with cold air aloft and stronger winds towards and above 500mb, any thunderstorms with the trough passage late Sunday afternoon/ evening may produce gusty winds and/or small hail...especially over and downwind of Lake Erie. KEY MESSAGE 3... Locations outside of any lake enhanced rain showers are expected to dry out Sunday night and remain dry into the first half of the week. Lake enhanced rain will gradually dwindle starting late Sunday night and eventually end by Tuesday as discussed above. Overall, this will lend to a tranquil first half of the week across much of the area. Temperatures will slowly rebound towards normal starting on Tuesday. Another trough is expected to dig into the Great Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday. This will likely be accompanied by another surface low and its associated fronts. Chances for showers and some storms may arrive as early as Wednesday afternoon/evening, but are most favored on Thursday with this system. && .AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... The primary concerns and possible impacts for our local aviation weather at area airports will be the potential for a round of scattered convection this afternoon into the early evening. There is a marginal risk for a couple strong to severe storms ahead of an approaching cold front later today. There is some isolated convection with a warm front early this morning which could impact CLE briefly between 06z and 09z with VCTS or TSRA. There will be a lull in shower and storm chances through late this morning. The cold front will start to move into NWOH around midday to early afternoon. There are PROB30 groups for a 5 to 6 hour time window from west to east between 16z this afternoon to 01z this evening. Any heavier showers and storm that impacts a TAF site will likely have a brief period of MVFR to IFR visibility reductions and ceilings with CB around 3K feet near the frontal passage. The convection should move eastward out of the NEOH and NWPA after 00z Scattered lake enhanced rain showers will likely develop around CLE, YNG, and ERI later this evening into the overnight with possible MVFR ceilings and visibility at times. Winds will start out from the south or southwest this morning 5 to 10 knots. Southwest winds will slightly increase 8 to 12 knots by midday through the afternoon/evening with gusts up to 20 knots possible. Any isolated strong to severe convection may have some isolated higher wind gusts up to 45 knots this afternoon. Winds will switch from the west-northwest late this evening and overnight 5 to 10 knots. Outlook...Non-VFR conditions will be likely Sunday through Monday morning with lake enhanced rain showers and isolated thunder possible for areas downwind of Lake Erie in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. && .MARINE... Onshore flow out of the northeast ends this evening, turning offshore tonight less than 10kts and wave heights coming down below 1ft. A cold front approaches Saturday with increasing storm chances, and passage across the lake expected in the evening. Winds become northwesterly 15-25kts through Sunday night with wave heights climbing to 3-6ft and will likely need a Small Craft Advisory for the central and eastern basins. With this being a cooler airmass over the warmer lake, waterspouts could become an issue during this same time frame. Winds ease and become offshore midweek, bringing wave heights down. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sullivan AVIATION...77 MARINE...26  875 FXUS63 KDTX 220753 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 353 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this morning become more widespread this afternoon. - There is a Marginal/Isolated risk of strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. - Breezy and cooler conditions arrive Sunday with scattered showers through Sunday night. - A stray shower in the morning, otherwise dry Monday with slightly below normal temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... An active period of showers and thunderstorms continues in a couple of phases as Straits low pressure pulls a cold front through Lower Mi today. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms that are ongoing leading up to sunrise are within the low to mid level moisture axis ahead of the cold front. This is where model soundings indicate a deep layer of elevated instability, but with minimal CAPE density shown in both the soundings and implied by plan view depictions of 850 mb LI around -2 C and sub 7 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rate. This elevated convection merges with scattered hybrid surface based activity of similar intensity during the morning within and between a prefrontal surface trough and the inbound cold front. The early day activity adds some doubt about verification of model peak instability as the cold front sweeps through SE Mi this afternoon. However, HREF and REFS members all handle the ongoing activity reasonably well and still suggest a respectable recovery in time for the front to support a storm flare-up while overhead and before it exits into Ontario toward early evening. There is otherwise no big change in the CAPE/shear environment as HREF mean surface based CAPE holds below 1500 J/kg with bulk shear around 25 knots, good enough for multicell clusters capable of peak gusts approaching severe intensity as the primary hazard in the strongest storms. The Marginal Risk remains in place to highlight this potential in SE Mi with a Slight Risk now just east of the border until the front exits early this evening. Scattered showers trail the front, mainly during the evening, as the 500 mb trough digs toward the eastern Great Lakes, but also as moderate cold advection gains traction overnight. Increasing NW flow occurs across Lower Mi around the west flank of surface low pressure deepening on the Ontario/Quebec border as the 500 mb trough deepens and closes off early Sunday. Model agreement maintains the trend on solutions offering a larger mid level circulation closing off closer to Lower Mi during the day. There is also a well-defined reinforcing vorticity maximum holding consistency in model solutions as it digs in from the NW and moves overhead during the afternoon. Guidance probabilities for rain appear underdone in this environment as scattered to numerous coverage is favored, especially Sunday afternoon and evening with a boost from daytime instability. The low level thermal trough is firmly in place over the western Great Lakes by Monday morning with low temperatures in the upper 40s still within reach outside of the larger metro areas. Deterministic and ensemble model guidance continue to project single digit 850 mb temperatures to start the day which rebound quickly as the mid/upper level low shifts eastward. A stray shower also remains in play, especially toward the Thumb region, during the morning until confluent NW flow develops to help ensure dry weather for the afternoon and Monday night. Slightly below normal highs in the upper 70s are reachable as the thermal trough shifts eastward. Weak surface high pressure is supported by a mid/upper level short wave ridge Monday night and Tuesday. Dry weather and a few degrees of warming occur through mid week within the slowly progressive large scale flow. High temperatures return to the lower 80s during mid week while the next chance of rain is carried in by the current Pac NW system. Extended range global models project it arrives in the Great Lakes by Wednesday. && .MARINE... A cold front will progress across the Great Lakes while expanding shower and thunderstorm chances today. Any stronger storm development will be capable of producing wind gusts aoa 34 knots and/or small hail. Winds veer to the northwest in the wake of the passing front and will increase intensity and remain elevated through Sunday as cooler air is ushered in. Wind gusts will likely range around 25 to 30 knots through this weekend. The switch in wind direction from the northwest will quickly build wave heights in and around the Thumb and Small Craft Advisories are in effect beginning tonight. High pressure builds back in Monday and Tuesday which will bring lighter winds to the area. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1208 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 AVIATION... Predominately VFR ceilings through the early morning hours as increased moisture supports higher coverage of mid/high clouds while winds hold out of the S to SE. There remains low potential for stray rain showers through the early morning hours, but coverage remains low enough to preclude mention through remainder of tonight. Better chance resides across FNT/MBS during the mid to late morning hours. Cold front mid-day will bring widespread coverage of showers with scattered thunderstorms along with potential for MVFR ceilings with the passage of the front. Winds become westerly by the afternoon and increase up to around 10 knots then becoming northwesterly in the evening. D21/DTW Convection... Very limited chance for an isolated thunderstorm remainder of tonight and low enough to leave mention out of TAFs. Increasing coverage of convection is expected to occur after noon with the highest probability between 18 and 23z. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Very low for thunderstorms tonight. Moderate after 18z today. * Low for ceilings at or below 5000 ft this morning. Moderate in the afternoon. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Monday for LHZ421-441. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Monday for LHZ422. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Monday for LHZ442-443. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BT MARINE.......AM AVIATION.....AA You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  992 FXUS63 KLSX 220757 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 257 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will be near or a few degrees below normal in the low to mid 80s this weekend, with relatively low humidity. - Temperatures warm back up to the mid to upper 80s by midweek with slight chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 254 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The Mid Mississippi Valley remains locked in northwest flow aloft with an amplified upper level ridge centered near the Four Corners Region, and a long wave trough digging through the Ohio Valley into the Southeastern U.S. A subtle short wave embedded in the northwest flow aloft is pushing a weak cold front south through Missouri and Illinois this morning. A line of thunderstorms is moving south through central Illinois along or just ahead of the front. Expect these storms to continue moving south and out of our forecast area by 09-10Z. Temperatures behind the front will be 2 or 3 degrees cooler today in the mid 80s, and dew point temperatures will be 5+ degrees lower in most locations. High pressure drops into the Mississippi Valley behind the front with light winds and a clear sky overnight tonight. These excellent radiational cooling conditions along with the drier air behind the front will allow overnight lows to drop into the low 60s in most locations by Sunday morning. The urban heat island of St. Louis will hang on to a little more warmth, but temperatures should still drop into the mid 60s which will be the coolest lows since the beginning of August. The cool start to the day will be followed up by a cooler Sunday under the high pressure with highs in the low to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 254 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The overall weather pattern persists through next week with a ridge to the west and a trough to the east and northwest flow aloft over the Mississippi Valley. The long wave trough does attenuate somewhat in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe. This allows the ridge to to drift eastward which brings warmer temperatures and higher humidity back to the region. This doesn't look like extreme heat, just more "normal" late August heat and humidity. After another cool start to the day Monday, and highs in the low 80s, temperatures rise back into the mid and upper 80s through at least Wednesday or Thursday. Deterministic guidance shows another short wave diving southwest from south central Canada into the Great Lakes region late in the week. This pushes another cold front through the Mid Mississippi Valley with the potential for some precip and perhaps cooler temperatures for Friday. However, the LREF cluster analysis is showing variance in both the amplitude and speed of the late-week short wave. The timing and strength of the cold front along with the chance for precip that it brings is therefore questionable. Have left NBM temps and PoPs alone for the end of the week, which keeps highs in the mid to upper 80s and only sporadic slight chance PoPs. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1036 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Mainly VFR flight conditions are expected through the TAF period at all local terminals as a dry cold front drops through the area during the morning hours and causes winds to shift to out of the north-northwest. There is a threat of fog at KSUS, but the front's passage may mitigate this. If fog does develop, dry air and the wind shift with the front will help quickly dissipate it by around sunrise. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Carney LONG TERM...Carney AVIATION...Elmore