122 FXUS61 KOKX 220800 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 400 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Aviation for the 06z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rounds of showers this weekend, possible thunderstorms. Marginal severe risk Sunday into Sunday evening. 2) After possible lingering showers Monday, prolonged stretch of mainly dry weather next week Monday night though midweek. Temperatures trend from below normal to closer to normal. 3) Chances for showers and thunderstorm return towards the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Rounds of showers this weekend, possible thunderstorms. Marginal severe risk Sunday into Sunday evening. The weather pattern taking shape for this weekend is unsettled featuring cyclonic flow aloft and surface low pressure not too far away from the local area. Deep shear present much of the time for the area near 30-35 kt. 500mb forecast model charts indicate a faster decline of heights tonight through the rest of the weekend. Strong shortwave moves into Great Lakes today and then moves southeast of the Great Lakes tonight into early Monday. At the surface, behind one wave of low pressure along a front, another low pressure wave approaches late tonight. The wave of low pressure also passes northeast of the region early Sunday. While model PWATs indicate near 2 inches with the wave of low pressure, the pattern is progressive and convective elements are expected to exhibit a sufficient translational speed to mitigate flooding potential. Also related to this is where the higher chances of thunderstorms are forecast which for tonight is more across parts of Long Island where flash flood guidance is higher. Overall, expect any flooding to stay minor nuisance within urban, low-lying and poor drainage areas. However, the trough of low pressure will still be near the area. This will be an associated cold front moving through the area Sunday but weakening and dissipating Sunday night. Dewpoints will be trending higher and the air will be more humid. Despite this, PWATs are actually decreasing Sunday into Sunday night with relatively more shear compared to the previous day. CAPE will be limited with all the clouds and shower activity before the cold front moves in. Still though in this low CAPE high shear environment, a thunderstorm could quickly mature and become strong with a quick downburst of wind. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms for much of the area Sunday into Sunday evening. The limiting factor will be the decreasing moisture in the atmosphere which will not allow for much expansion of convection and limit its coverage. .KEY MESSAGE 2... After possible lingering showers Monday, prolonged stretch of mainly dry weather next week Monday night though midweek. Temperatures trend from below normal Monday through Tuesday to closer to normal Tuesday night through Wednesday. Still have quite a bit of cyclonic flow aloft Monday with deep trough cutoff low making its way across the Northeast. The center of the cutoff upper level low is well north of the local area. Another weak cold front moves across Monday night but will not have much moisture associated with it. The POPs will be pretty low with this front and a lot of locations may very well end up staying dry. Models coherent on an area of positive vorticity maxima moving into the local region Monday morning into Monday afternoon. While there is a lot of westerly flow, models are struggling to depict much if any precipitation and why the national blend of models is dry. However, the cyclonic flow aloft and positive vorticity advection will present strong forcing for more clouds and some shower or thunderstorm activity. Coverage only isolated to widely scattered for any showers and thunderstorms. More height rises seen in the mid levels Monday night through midweek. A pattern change is evident within the forecast models of a transition from cyclonic cutoff low to quasi-zonal flow. At the surface, after the cold front Monday night, another cold front moves across Tuesday night, followed by weak high pressure heading into the middle of the week. Dry conditions are expected to prevail with more westerly flow getting established within the atmosphere. .KEY MESSAGE 3... The models are forecasting the approach of another frontal system from the west along with an upper level trough towards the latter part of next week. This will make for a return to a more unsettled weather pattern. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low pressure drifts away from the terminals overnight. Another wave of low pressure slowly approaches from the south late today into Saturday night. Mainly VFR through the overnight, excluding KGON where MVFR cigs likely move in late in the overnight. MVFR cigs may also get into other eastern terminals like KISP and KBDR briefly overnight. Prevailing MVFR cigs are then expected to move in towards 14-15z this morning, and could be borderline VFR/MVFR through late Saturday afternoon, especially for NYC terminals and north and west. Latest trends have KSWF remaining VFR through today. PROB30 now for -RA during this afternoon for most terminals, with the exception being for northern terminals. MVFR ceilings become more widespread after 00z Sunday, along with some IFR ceilings possible, especially closer to 06z Sunday. Light winds overnight and either vrb or NE in direction. E/SE winds under 10kt for Saturday. The winds will be light, mainly at or under 5 kt into Saturday evening. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... AMD possible with borderline VFR/MVFR cigs today. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Saturday night: Showers and potential thunderstorms late. MVFR to IFR. Sunday: A chance of showers, especially north of the city terminals. Possible thunderstorms. Chance of MVFR or lower at times. Monday through Wednesday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Pressure gradient remains relatively weak through the forecast period. Conditions on the forecast marine zones stay below SCA thresholds. Rip Currents: The rip current risk with very light winds today looks to be overall low. With increasing southerly winds Sunday, more of a moderate rip current risk is expected. The swell will still have southerly and easterly components. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...JE MARINE...JM  231 FXUS61 KOKX 220800 CCA AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service New York NY 400 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rounds of showers this weekend, possible thunderstorms. Marginal severe risk Sunday into Sunday evening. 2) After possible lingering showers Monday, prolonged stretch of mainly dry weather next week Monday night though midweek. Temperatures trend from below normal to closer to normal. 3) Chances for showers and thunderstorm return towards the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Rounds of showers this weekend, possible thunderstorms. Marginal severe risk Sunday into Sunday evening. The weather pattern taking shape for this weekend is unsettled featuring cyclonic flow aloft and surface low pressure not too far away from the local area. Deep shear present much of the time for the area near 30-35 kt. 500mb forecast model charts indicate a faster decline of heights tonight through the rest of the weekend. Strong shortwave moves into Great Lakes today and then moves southeast of the Great Lakes tonight into early Monday. At the surface, behind one wave of low pressure along a front, another low pressure wave approaches late tonight. The wave of low pressure also passes northeast of the region early Sunday. While model PWATs indicate near 2 inches with the wave of low pressure, the pattern is progressive and convective elements are expected to exhibit a sufficient translational speed to mitigate flooding potential. Also related to this is where the higher chances of thunderstorms are forecast which for tonight is more across parts of Long Island where flash flood guidance is higher. Overall, expect any flooding to stay minor nuisance within urban, low-lying and poor drainage areas. However, the trough of low pressure will still be near the area. This will be an associated cold front moving through the area Sunday but weakening and dissipating Sunday night. Dewpoints will be trending higher and the air will be more humid. Despite this, PWATs are actually decreasing Sunday into Sunday night with relatively more shear compared to the previous day. CAPE will be limited with all the clouds and shower activity before the cold front moves in. Still though in this low CAPE high shear environment, a thunderstorm could quickly mature and become strong with a quick downburst of wind. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms for much of the area Sunday into Sunday evening. The limiting factor will be the decreasing moisture in the atmosphere which will not allow for much expansion of convection and limit its coverage. .KEY MESSAGE 2... After possible lingering showers Monday, prolonged stretch of mainly dry weather next week Monday night though midweek. Temperatures trend from below normal Monday through Tuesday to closer to normal Tuesday night through Wednesday. Still have quite a bit of cyclonic flow aloft Monday with deep trough cutoff low making its way across the Northeast. The center of the cutoff upper level low is well north of the local area. Another weak cold front moves across Monday night but will not have much moisture associated with it. The POPs will be pretty low with this front and a lot of locations may very well end up staying dry. Models coherent on an area of positive vorticity maxima moving into the local region Monday morning into Monday afternoon. While there is a lot of westerly flow, models are struggling to depict much if any precipitation and why the national blend of models is dry. However, the cyclonic flow aloft and positive vorticity advection will present strong forcing for more clouds and some shower or thunderstorm activity. Coverage only isolated to widely scattered for any showers and thunderstorms. More height rises seen in the mid levels Monday night through midweek. A pattern change is evident within the forecast models of a transition from cyclonic cutoff low to quasi-zonal flow. At the surface, after the cold front Monday night, another cold front moves across Tuesday night, followed by weak high pressure heading into the middle of the week. Dry conditions are expected to prevail with more westerly flow getting established within the atmosphere. .KEY MESSAGE 3... The models are forecasting the approach of another frontal system from the west along with an upper level trough towards the latter part of next week. This will make for a return to a more unsettled weather pattern. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low pressure drifts away from the terminals overnight. Another wave of low pressure slowly approaches from the south late today into Saturday night. Mainly VFR through the overnight, excluding KGON where MVFR cigs likely move in late in the overnight. MVFR cigs may also get into other eastern terminals like KISP and KBDR briefly overnight. Prevailing MVFR cigs are then expected to move in towards 14-15z this morning, and could be borderline VFR/MVFR through late Saturday afternoon, especially for NYC terminals and north and west. Latest trends have KSWF remaining VFR through today. PROB30 now for -RA during this afternoon for most terminals, with the exception being for northern terminals. MVFR ceilings become more widespread after 00z Sunday, along with some IFR ceilings possible, especially closer to 06z Sunday. Light winds overnight and either vrb or NE in direction. E/SE winds under 10kt for Saturday. The winds will be light, mainly at or under 5 kt into Saturday evening. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... AMD possible with borderline VFR/MVFR cigs today. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Saturday night: Showers and potential thunderstorms late. MVFR to IFR. Sunday: A chance of showers, especially north of the city terminals. Possible thunderstorms. Chance of MVFR or lower at times. Monday through Wednesday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Pressure gradient remains relatively weak through the forecast period. Conditions on the forecast marine zones stay below SCA thresholds. Rip Currents: The rip current risk with very light winds today looks to be overall low. With increasing southerly winds Sunday, more of a moderate rip current risk is expected. The swell will still have southerly and easterly components. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...JE MARINE...JM  184 FXUS65 KCYS 220800 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 200 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected this weekend, with the possibility of widespread rain on Saturday. A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon. - Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue Monday through the end of the week with slightly above average temperature expected until Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 158 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Not many changes made to the previous forecast with a relatively wet and warm pattern expected to continue through the last full week of August. Current surface observations across the region show ample low to midlevel moisture with dewpoints remaining in the upper 50s and mid 60s across the eastern plains. A drier airmass is located over central and south central Wyoming, with dewpoints in the 30s and 40s. Expect this to change today as IR and Watervapor Satellite loop shows the next monsoon moisture plume lifting northeast out of Utah and Nevada at this hour and into Wyoming later this morning. This plume, in addition to a potent upper level shortwave, is forecast to drift eastward around the periphery of the upper level high to our south. This will also flatten the upper level ridge axis currently over the Front Range and result in slightly cooler temperatures. NAEFS still show PWATs between 1.00 (west of I-25) to 1.50 (east) across the region, and may have trended a bit higher compared to yesterday with values approaching a two week maximum between 18z and 00z for late August and early September. Getting some signals for excessive rainfall, especially if any outflow boundary interactions are considered. Kept POP above 40% for most of the area with scattered to numerous coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Not a lot of shear, however, so severe thunderstorms aren't as likely. There is a marginal risk for Severe thunderstorms across the eastern plains of southeast Wyoming and the southwest Nebraska panhandle...mainly for gusty winds. Can't rule out some marginally large hail, but thunderstorms will likely be linear lines and multicell clusters with straight hodographs through the afternoon and occasional periods of weaker shear ahead of the upper level disturbance. Could see some respectable rainfall amounts with short range ensembles showing a good chance of a half inch of rain, particularly along the I-80 corridor, and along/north of highway 20 over east central Wyoming and the northern Nebraska panhandle as the shortwave axis moves east through the region later this evening. Cooler today with highs in the 80s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. For Sunday, models show some drier air attempting to move into the forecast area through the day due to increasing west to northwest winds behind Saturday's shortwave disturbance. Surface winds are expected to increase a bit out of the west with gusts of 25 to 35 MPH possible, especially across southeast Wyoming. With drier conditions and a lack of forcing, expect shower and thunderstorm coverage to be lower into the evening hours with widely scattered coverage, mainly further south along the I-80 corridor. 0-6km shear is a little more favorable for organized convection though, especially over the southern Nebraska Panhandle. Kept POP between 20 to 35 percent near the Colorado border with POP around 15 percent north of I-80. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 131 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Monday...Coverage of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms increases somewhat by an increase in monsoonal moisture and lowering 700 mb temperatures providing less convective inhibition, CIN, compared to Sunday. As is this type of pattern, afternoon convection will be over and near the mountains due to differential heating and orographic effects, with the activity spreading across the rest of the forecast area before dissipation by late evening. Warmer temperatures compared to the previous day due to less cloud cover and convective coverage. Tuesday...Similar pattern synoptically to Monday with minor perturbations in the flow aloft aiding in lift of monsoonal moisture to produce widely scattered to scattered afternoon convection over and near our Snowy, Sierra Madre and northern Laramie Ranges, with the activity spreading eastward across the rest of the forecast area in the evening. Some lowering of mid level temperatures suggests daytime maximum temperatures will be a little cooler. Wednesday...The primary change compared to Tuesday, will be a reinforcement of the ridge aloft axis over Wyoming, inducing a return to upslope mechanical lift aiding the areal increase of showers and thunderstorms, especially east of the mountains and along the I-25 corridor and eastward. Slight warming trend with 700 mb temperatures near 13 Celsius yielding high temperatures in the 80s. Thursday-Friday...Monsoonal moisture becomes a bit more scant with decent westerly flow aloft and with warm temperatures aloft producing more convective inhibition, CIN, to limit development. A slight warming trend continues based on mid level, 700 mb temperature trends. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1122 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 A relatively calm night is in store with the possibility of lower VIS and CIGs across the Nebraska Panhandle with the additional moisture from Friday's precipitation and wind direction. Then, winds ramp up once again across all terminals by 00Z Sunday with southeasterly to southerly gusts 20 to 25 knots. Another round of showers and thunderstorms look to impact all sites except KRWL starting around 23Z Saturday, therefore PROB30 groups have been added. Look for lower VIS along with gusty and erratic winds in any storm activity if it comes near or over a terminal. Chances persist towards the tail end of this forecast period. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...RZ  173 FXUS65 KTFX 220800 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 200 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms today, some storms will contain strong, gusty winds, heavy downpours capable of localized flooding over burn scars, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. - A surface front will bring gusty winds and elevated fire weather conditions on Sunday, there will also be a few lingering showers and storms east of I15, some may be strong to severe. - There will be a modest cooldown early next week with some widely scattered showers and storms, mostly over southwest Montana. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: A subtle shortwave moving through an increasingly southwesterly flow aloft is bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning. This activity will continue to weaken as it moves northeastward, but may produce localized gusty winds, lightning, and brief downpours. Stronger forcing associated with a trough approaching from the Pacific NW still looks to send a more impactful wave of showers and thunderstorms through the forecast area later this afternoon and evening. ML CAPE looks to generally fall in the 400 to 900 J/kg range for most locations, but there are some pockets with values as high as 1500 J/kg over portions of central and southwest MT. Very warm and dry boundary layers will increase instances of strong gusty winds up to and exceeding 60 mph, especially if linear upscale growth takes place. Hail and brief downpours capable of flash flooding of normally flood prone areas will also be present with effective shear generally above 25 kts and PWATS surpassing the one inch mark in some areas. The focus of this activity will be over southwest MT and and along the Continental Divide, although at least some of it will move northeastward onto the plains during the late evening and perhaps the overnight hours. The Pacific NW trough will swing northeastward through W MT and into Canada on Sunday while its attendant surface front traverses the CWA and brings gusty westerly winds and elevated fire weather conditions. There will also be lingering instability for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, with some on the strong side, mainly for locations east of I15. Temperatures modestly cooldown Monday and Tuesday with some shower and thunderstorm activity in southwest MT. This looks to be followed by ridging aloft briefly rebuilding before a couple Pacific troughs move through the Northern Rockies during the mid to latter part of next week. These systems will bring more showers and thunderstorms ahead of them followed by gusty westerly winds in their wake. - RCG - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Scattered strong thunderstorm activity through Sunday... Higher quality forcing brings more impactful showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Strong gusty winds in excess of 60 mph and lightning will be the primary hazards, especially if the storms become linear and undergo upscale growth. This threat will be highest over southwest MT and along the Continental Divide. Some weakening is expected with this activity as it moves northeastward, though these same hazards apply to plains locations as well. In addition to the winds, there will be localized heavy downpours capable of flash flooding of burn scars and other flood prone locations, mainly in central and southwest MT where there is around a 10% chance for excessive rainfall and localized flooding. While this activity will be monitored for the aforementioned flash flooding, I will continue to hold off sending out flood products per the more scattered nature of higher rainfall rates and progressive storm motion. The focus of this activity shifts eastward onSunday with a few stronger storms for locations east of I15. Central/north-central locations east and southeast of the highway 87 corridor will see the strongest storm ceiling with strong, gusty winds, hail, and downpours all on the table. - RCG && .AVIATION... 22/06Z TAF Period Predominantly VFR conditions across the region with some mild slant range visibility reductions due to smoke in Southwest MT. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over far Southwest MT until 09Z creating strong gusts up to 40 KT and some cloud-to-ground lightning. A more organized line of widespread and stronger thunderstorms from the south will progress northeastward through the region Saturday afternoon after 21Z until late Saturday night bringing heavier rainfall and strong gusts over 40 KT with the potential for some to be severe. For KGTF: VFR conditions are expected overnight until light showers and thunderstorms arrive late morning followed by stronger thunderstorms in the evening from 02Z to 04Z. Winds will be light and variable overnight then shift southwesterly after 16Z. Hazards for the thunderstorms will be gusty outflows of up to 40 KT as well as localized heavy rain and lightning. - Akins && .FIRE WEATHER... Widely scattered showers and storms with cloud to ground lightning and little or light precipitation will continue to weaken this morning as they move northeastward. Even though this activity is of lower grade, some new fire starts can't be ruled out. More productive storms move in this afternoon and evening, but increased cloud to ground lightning activity may still ignite new fire starts. The most cornering fire weather day will be on Sunday when a surface front brings gusty westerly winds amid continued very warm and dry conditions. The timing of this front will ultimately determine how long the dry and windy conditions persist. The latest NBM probabilistic guidance continues to highlight large areas of north- central and portions of southwest Montana with over a 70% chance for wind gusts over 30 mph. Although the fuels aren't quite as dry as they were in earlier in the month, elevated fire conditions will be present and the wind may be enough to ignite any lightning caused hold over fires from Friday and Saturday's storms. In addition to the winds, there will be more widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with strong, erratic wind gusts. - RCG && .HYDROLOGY... The combination of increased monsoonal moisture aloft and lower level moisture moving in from the east today will result in a 10% chance for localized heavy thunderstorm rains producing flash flooding over and near burn scars, urban areas, and other normally flood prone locations. While this activity will be monitored for the aforementioned flash flooding, a flash flood watch will issued with this forecast package per the more scattered nature of higher rainfall rates and progressive storm motion. The moisture profile begins thin on Sunday, which will reduce the threat for excessive rainfall through early next week. - RCG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 90 61 89 53 / 30 40 20 0 CTB 85 57 81 50 / 30 20 20 0 HLN 90 57 87 52 / 30 60 30 0 BZN 87 53 86 50 / 50 40 40 10 WYS 81 45 78 41 / 50 40 30 10 DLN 86 52 85 48 / 40 60 10 0 HVR 93 61 93 55 / 20 10 40 20 LWT 88 59 89 52 / 20 30 40 20 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  398 FXUS61 KLWX 220802 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 402 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Update on the current showers developing over southern MD and the VA Piedmont. Flooding threat remains limited, but will need to be monitored closely as the axis of heavier rain sets up throughout the morning. Also updated aviation and marine discussions substantially to add more details on today's setup. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Showers and thunderstorms today with the potential for heavy rainfall and isolated instances of flash flooding. - 2) Dry conditions anticipated Sunday through early next week. - 3) Warmer and more humid conditions return mid-week, with thunderstorm chances returning by Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and thunderstorms today with the potential for heavy rainfall and isolated instances of flash flooding. Latest surface analysis still depicts a stalled frontal boundary off to our south and east. Satellite imagery depicts an influx of moisture into the region east of an approaching upper trough axis. We are starting to see some heavier showers develop in the right entrance region of a 90 knot upper-level jet. Low pressure is developing over the Carolina, but remains very loosely developed at this stage. At any rate, all of these features are expected to evolve throughout the day, giving a continuous threat for showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon hours. The latest SPC mesoanalysis is starting to hone in on an area generally southeast of the I-95 corridor. PWATs in this region remain in the 1.6-1.8 inch range, with a decent overlap of low- level moisture convergence and PPP. Current forecast calls for 1-2" somewhere along/southeast of I-95, but could see some locally higher amounts. As it stands right now, the region of concern should fall just southeast of the metro areas. Sandy soils and antecedent low soil moisture in this region should mitigate the flooding threat. However, the one exception will be if the heaviest axis either shifts north into St. Marys county, where recent heavy rains leave that area slightly more susceptible to flooding. Additionally, if the axis does shift north into the metros, flash flooding could become an issue. No flood watch at this time, as confidence remains higher that the highest rain totals will fall in less susceptible areas. If that changes, one may be considered later this morning. During the late morning and early afternoon hours there could be a lull, but there remains a chance for pop-up showers and storms pretty much anywhere during this period. By evening, another round of showers and thunderstorms will approach the Appalachian Mountains and may make to areas east of the Blue Ridge Mountains overnight into early Sunday. Severe threat is low with these, as they will be running into stable surface air. However, they could bring some heavy rainfall and thunder. Some fog may then develop in the valleys and VA Piedmont, but it will have to do so prior to the arrival of the front. By Sunday morning the cold front will be crossing the area with dry air advection ensuing in strengthening NW winds. However, there could still be enough moisture and lift to spark a few showers, but overall drying conditions are expected throughout the day. KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry conditions anticipated Sunday through early next week. Dewpoints drop sharply in the wake of the cold front Monday as dry air moves into the region from the Midwest. Surface high pressure will begin to build over the Appalachians and track east over the next couple of days, with conditions feeling briefly fall-like as temperatures range slightly below average for August. Overnight lows range largely in the 50s throughout the region by Tuesday, and sub-60F dewpoints could persist until midweek. KEY MESSAGE 3...Warmer and more humid conditions return mid- week, with thunderstorm chances returning by Thursday. As the week continues, a broad upper-level trough will begin to form over the Great Lakes and track towards the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday. As the associated surface low approaches the region, moist air from the south will flow into the area, bringing back an increase in humidity & temperatures back to late-August normals. As this low tracks through, expect shower & thunderstorm chances to increase as the associated cold front tracks offshore by the end of the week. Medium-range severe indices still maintain a low-end non-zero chance for stronger convection as this front moves through. Temperatures rise back into the upper 80s by Thursday. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low pressure tracking along a stalled boundary to our southeast will push showers and some embedded storms into the region later this morning. Still lots of uncertainty with just how much rain falls and how intense any showers will be that reach the terminals. Low clouds will also be an issue, which makes restrictions likely. Though, if the showers and up being less intense, it is possible that conditions remain low-end MVFR rather than dropping to IFR. Latest TAFs reflect some uncertainty there, with areas further east a bit more likely than those to the west. Another low pressure system over the Great Lakes region will push a cold front through the region later tonight. This will bring another line of shower and storms along with it, persisting through the early overnight hours. This could bring another period of restrictions. In the wake of the rain, fog is expected to develop at CHO and probably MRB as well Sunday morning. It is possible it could creep into IAD as well. Predominantly VFR conditions are anticipated across terminals Sunday through Wednesday. Winds on Sunday through Tuesday remain out of the WNW to NW, gusting up to 20 knots during the afternoon hours (except CHO which will be 5 to 8 knots lower). Beginning Wednesday afternoon, winds shift out of the south, but should be a bit weaker. Additionally, a few showers and thunderstorms become possible ahead of an approaching cold front that could bring temporarily reduced conditions into the evening and perhaps overnight hours. && .MARINE... Easterly winds expected today around 5 to 10 knots with gusts up to 15 knots as low pressure slides by to our southeast. SCA conditions are not expected, however any heavier showers or storms could bring down gusts around 20 to 25 knots at times throughout the day. These would likely come in short bursts, and should be few and far between. Another line of showers and storms moves in late tonight, but again should not bring any substantial wind gusts as we will be stable. Winds turn out of the WNW Sunday through Tuesday, and should remain sub-SCA throughout that period. A few gusts near 18 knots are possible, especially further north, but not seeing a prolonged period enough to warrant an SCA at this time. Winds shift southerly by Wednesday, with winds gusting above SCA thresholds later that evening in a classic southerly channeling event ahead of an approaching cold front. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CJL/SRT AVIATION...CJL/SRT MARINE...CJL/SRT  445 FXUS63 KTOP 220803 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 303 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Thunderstorms approach the area from the north this morning. A few strong wind gusts could occur as storms move in. -Periodic shortwaves in the northwest flow bring additional chances for rain tomorrow and early in the workweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 At 07Z, there were two areas of thunderstorms on regional radar, one in western/central KS and another in north-central Nebraska. The storms in north-central Nebraska should continue to track southeast with the mean 850-300mb wind. Based on the current storm movement, storms could enter far northern Kansas by 11Z. Forecast RAP/HRRR soundings at that time show around 1000 J/kg of elevated CAPE and around 40 kts of effective bulk shear. Thus, storms should be able to maintain strength to move into the area and continue southeast this morning. A few strong wind gusts of 50-60 mph could occur with the strongest updrafts. Rain/storms exit the area late this morning, leaving us with partly cloudy skies and light winds for the afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler than yesterday with highs generally in the mid 80s. The upper pattern won't change much this weekend or early next week, and continues to feature a large ridge centered over New Mexico with northwest flow over our region. Periodic shortwaves in the northwest flow will bring chances for rain and storms, with most guidance showing the next notable wave moving over northeast KS tomorrow afternoon. Forecast sounding show some mid-level lift associated with the wave, however, there appears to be a layer of dry air beneath H7 and fairly weak low and mid level flow. Additionally, earlier cloud cover looks to limit instability. Have kept POPs between 20-30 percent. Severe weather is not expected. Scattered storms could then redevelop Sunday night within an area of isentropic ascent in eastern KS. Temperatures warm slightly for Monday and Tuesday, but stay around climatological normals. The next chance for precipitation will be Tuesday night and early Wednesday with another mid-level shortwave. A weak cold front associated with a surface low near the Great Lakes also looks to move through the area on Wednesday, although temperatures and the main upper level pattern do not look to change much through mid-week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 For the 06Z TAFs, maintained the PROB30 group with just a minor tweak to timing based on the latest model guidance. Even still, there remains uncertainty on where storms will occur this morning. Outside of storm chances early this period, VFR will prevail with light easterly winds through the day. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Teefey AVIATION...Teefey  477 FXUS61 KBOX 220804 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 404 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Rip Current Statement has been issued for Plymouth and Barnstable Counties for Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Misty with drizzle today ahead of heavier rain tonight into Sunday. - Drier and warmer next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Misty with drizzle today ahead of heavier rain tonight into Sunday. Low pressure has continued to bring scattered light showers and drizzle/mist across parts of the Cape and south coast tonight as it has continued trekking northeast, while more interior parts of the region have remained mostly dry. This trend should continue to start the day. Based on latest observations, the low is centered just south of Nantucket as of the time of writing this discussion. Guidance remains in agreement with the general track of this low after it remained further south of Long Island than initially forecast; it will curve up and around the Cape and Islands through the day today, moving up into the NH/ME coast into Sunday morning. Misty conditions with periods of drizzle remain the main story for today as a result of prevailing cyclonic flow. Some CAMs hinted at a brief period of showers in the late morning to afternoon hours, with some even showing them passing through the interior. Highs today will likely not get out of the low 70s for southern New England. Heavier rainfall moves through tonight, generally after midnight, as the low continues on. PWATs remain elevated, approaching 2.0" towards SE MA and the Cape and Islands. IVT remains favorable for heavier showers, though the more anomalous values should remain further offshore. With regards to rainfall totals, ensembles top out at around a 20% chance of totals meeting or exceeding 1" in 24 hours ending Sunday over the Cape and Islands. The exception remains the GEFS, which continues to be drier than the other ensembles. Ensembles have somewhat trended higher totals slightly more offshore over the last few runs while deterministic guidance has somewhat varied more from run to run. The HREF PMM has 24 hour totals getting to around 0.75"-1" over the same area, including into parts of RI and SE MA; 48 hour totals could reach 1.5". High-res guidance indicates streaks of higher totals stretching northeast across the coastal plain, but this could change depending on just how close to land the low tracks while it cuts around Cape Cod. Overcast and misty conditions with periods of drizzle remain the story for Sunday as well as the low continues north and a front starts to approach from the west. Ahead of this front, the flow turns more southerly to southwesterly. This will advect in more moisture from the south and increase dewpoints into the 70s. PWATs approaching 2.0" and higher will filer in as well. Notably, CAMs have MUCAPE values approaching 1500-1700 J/kg with limited CIN over the interior for Sunday afternoon. 0-6 km shear approaches 50 kt with effective bulk shear around 35 kt. All of these parameters combined with any possible forcing from the front could set the stage for some scattered thunderstorms, some of which could turn strong to severe over the interior. With more southerly flow as well, highs Sunday increase back into the upper 70s and low 80s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier and warmer next week. Sunday's cold front shifts offshore for Monday. Post-frontal passage, much drier air and warmer temperatures take hold with more westerly winds, clearing out clouds and dropping dewpoints through Wednesday. The base of the trough tracks directly overhead into Tuesday and heights rise behind it as it continues eastward, though a weak shortwave may track through and bring a low chance of diurnal showers. High pressure continues building into the region into the middle of next week and flow aloft becomes more zonal. Low pressure developing over the Great Lakes towards the second half of the week may play more of a role later in the week, but for the time being, no major disturbances are expected through Thursday. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update: Through Saturday...Moderate confidence. MVFR ceilings should continue to move in over the region heading into the morning hours. IFR ceilings remain a possibility towards SE MA/Cape and Islands. Periods of mist and drizzle remain most likely over these same areas this morning, spreading over much of eastern MA and to ORH during the day. Winds generally NE to N at 5-10 kt. Saturday Night...Moderate confidence. Widespread MVFR/IFR should overspread the region heading into tonight as a round of steadier light to moderate rain approaches mainly after 06z Sunday. Exact timing may still change, and some areas, especially in eastern parts of the region, could see conditions deteriorate sooner than the rest of southern New England. Winds remain NE to N at 5-10 kt. Sunday...Moderate confidence. MVFR-IFR ceilings with periods of showers during the day. TSRA possible towards western MA and CT in the afternoon hours. Winds shift more S to SW ahead of an approaching cold front. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Conditions should deteriorate to MVFR, then remain there through the day. Periods of mist and drizzle possible throughout the day as well. The next round of showers should move in around 06z Sun, though uncertainty with exact timing remains. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Tuesday Night: VFR. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Sunday...High confidence. NE to N winds generally 15-20 kts and seas 3-4 ft through most of today become more light variable today into tonight as the low breaks down into Sunday morning. Winds then shift more S for Sunday at around 5-10 kt, gusting to just under 20 kt occasionally during the afternoon. Despite the lower wave heights, the prolonged northeasterly flow will cause higher swells and longer swell periods today which is why a Rip Current Statement for Plymouth and Barnstable Counties will be in effect. Eastern, ocean-facing beaches will be primarily affected, especially across the northern portion of Cape Cod; however, bay-facing beaches may also experience rip currents. Swells diminish for Sunday, and the risk for rip currents decreases with them. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Monday Night through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this afternoon for MAZ019-022. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hrencecin AVIATION...Hrencecin MARINE...Hrencecin  654 FXUS63 KLBF 220806 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 306 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are expected to last this morning, bringing potential for heavy rainfall east of Highway 83. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected tonight, lingering into the afternoon on Sunday. Heavy rainfall will again be the main concern. - Northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the central plains over the next several days leading to a daily threat for precipitation across the area. - Temperatures will be seasonal across the area with daily highs ranging from the lower to middle 80s in the northeast, to around 90 in the southwest. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 306 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Storms are expected to linger through the morning hours, especially areas east of Highway 83. The environment remains fairly worked from yesterday's convection, and generally fairly stable. However, still have plenty of low level moisture and deep layer shear for some more organized updrafts to develop during the early morning period. The main concern with these early morning storms is the additional moisture aloft, as well as potential for training storm development, leading to potential for locally heavy rainfall. This signal remains strongest east of Highway 83, where soils remain quite moist from the previous few rain events. This may lead to some localized flooding threat, especially in areas where training thunderstorms can develop and in low lying regions. After storms clear out in the morning, expect a brief break from rain and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Skies remain partly to mostly cloudy, limiting the ability for strong instability to develop across the region. This may also keep temperatures slightly cooler today, with highs mostly remaining in the 80s, with upper 80s really only along and south of the Interstate 80 corridor. While the afternoon looks relatively quiet, expecting another round of convection to initiate along a nearly stationary boundary in western Nebraska. The main core of the upper level jet is expected to be slightly further east, which may limit our deep layer shear in addition to the already limited instability. In general, expecting this will allow for a multicellular storm mode across the Sandhills and east. At this point, thinking the main concerns this evening into the overnight hours will be potential for heavy rainfall yet again. Cannot completely rule out a threat for some isolated large hail, especially in the stronger updrafts, and strong, gusty winds with the stronger downdrafts. While individual cells may bring locally heavy rainfall, the main threat for heavy rain will be the redevelopment of cells behind the initial push. Again, thinking the greater threat for any potential flooding will be areas east of Highway 83, where there has already been ample rainfall the past few days, with fairly saturated soils. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger throughout the morning and afternoon on Sunday, especially given the nearly stationary nature of the boundary. This may also set up a notable temperature gradient across the region. As clouds should be able to clear across western Nebraska, may see highs pushing into the lower 90s. However, across north central Nebraska, mostly cloudy and rainy conditions may limit highs to only the upper 70s. At this time, the severe threat remains relatively low, but could see some decent rainfall again throughout the day on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 306 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 High pressure aloft will remain anchored over the southwestern CONUS through next week. Ridging will extend north of this feature into the northern Rockies. The amplitude of the ridging will be temporarily suppressed Sunday night into Monday night by a strong trough of low pressure traversing southern Canada. As this feature tracks east into the northern Great Lakes midweek, slightly cooler air will back into mainly eastern portions of the forecast area. Further west and southwest, warm temperatures will continue with daily highs reaching around 90 degrees. Readings in the northeastern forecast area will reach into the low 80s Wednesday and Thursday. With the persistent northwesterly flow aloft, and favorable moisture at the surface, periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through next week. As for the severe threat, deep layer shear of 30+ KTS looks probable next week, favoring a continued threat for severe storms daily. With thetae ridging across the western forecast area next week, storms appear to develop over the higher terrain of eastern Wyoming and the western Panhandle almost daily. Steering winds will carry this activity southeast into western and central portions of the forecast area. Based on the latest NBM forecast, precipitation chances are highest in the western half of the forecast area, and this seems reasonable && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1146 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Periods of scattered to broken high clouds will persist across western and north central Nebraska over the next 24 hours. There is a threat for showers and thunderstorms over north central into central Nebraska overnight and activity has begun to develop over north central Nebraska. That being said, will add a mention of thunderstorms to the KVTN terminal forecast overnight. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Richie LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...Buttler  814 FXUS66 KSGX 220808 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 108 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Monsoonal moisture will decrease this weekend, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for the mountains and lower deserts returning for Monday afternoon. Above average high and low temperatures will continue through next week. Widespread moderate to locally major HeatRisk for the coast, valleys, and mountains except near the beaches and for the higher elevations in the mountains, with major to extreme HeatRisk for the lower deserts. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... A couple of record high minimum temperatures were set yesterday as moisture aloft and high clouds inhibit radiation cooling at night. A few high clouds continue this morning as patchy marine layer low clouds form over the coastal areas. Numerical models remain in good agreement with respect to the synoptic pattern. The dominant high pressure will remain in place over the southwest US with some variations in the location of the center and orientation of the ridge axis, with the ridge becoming less amplified at times as a couple of major shortwave troughs move inland over the Pacific Northwest. As a result, the marine layer will remain shallow with low clouds restricted to the coastal areas and little day-to-day change. Daytime high temperatures will likely remain generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Guidance also indicates that overnight low temperatures will remain above normal. These temperature trends make it more likely that the inland valleys, mountains and high desert will experience moderate HeatRisk through next week with some areas of Major HeatRisk. The lower deserts will likely experience persistent Major HeatRisk through next week. The one caveat is that the changes in position and orientation of the high could result in a reduction of deep-layer moisture aloft. This will certainly reduce the chances for pm showers/tstms in the mtns and deserts but could also allow for improved radiation cooling at night leading to lower overnight temperatures. At this time lower overnight temperatures seems to be a low probability of occurrence. && .AVIATION... 220530Z...Coast...Patchy clouds based around 1000 ft MSL have formed along parts of the coastal waters. Clouds will remain somewhat patchy and intermittent overnight, but will start to move into coastal areas after 08Z, likely lowering slightly to 700-1000 ft MSL. There is a 60-70% chance for cigs at KSAN/KCRQ after 08Z. Low clouds scatter out 15-16Z Sat morning. Low clouds expected to be more patchy and isolated when they form Sat evening, with a 20-30% chance for cigs in coastal San Diego Co after 07Z Sun. Otherwise...FEW to SCT clouds above 20 kft MSL through the TAF period. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT Monday for Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains- San Diego County Valleys-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for Coachella Valley- San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...PG AVIATION/MARINE...CSP  363 FXUS63 KMQT 220811 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 411 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across mainly central Upper Michigan later today with minimal rainfall totals. - Seasonable temperatures are expected through next week with the exception of slightly below normal temperatures Sunday and Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 410 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Radar mosaic has been somewhat quiet over the last several hours with just an uptick in showers/isolated storms across the west. Latest radar mosaic shows that weak convection now moving southeastward along the WI/MI border. With limited instability, however, do not anticipate this activity to produce much rain or thunder. Later today, additional scattered showers and weak storms are possible as another cold front and shortwave drop southeast overhead. That said, CAMs are even less impressed with this round. Outside the south-central where some spots could reach up to 0.25 inches, accumulations remain below 0.1 inches. Highs will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Currently, ground-based obs across the area are reporting low 50s over much the interior west with visibility restrictions of 1/4 mile at both Sawyer and Iron Mountain. By daybreak, these areas could drop into the upper 40s. Elsewhere, the southern and eastern UP and Keweenaw are reporting temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. Temps continue to decrease this weekend, bottoming out Sunday as a mid level trough deepens over the Great Lakes. CAA lowers 850 mb temps to between 3-6C, yielding highs in the 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s to mid 50s. Some interior spots likely will dip back into the upper 30s Sunday night. Northerly winds are expected to gust up to 20 mph on Saturday and between 20-30 mph on Sunday, highest east...particularly near Lake Superior. High pressure moving in from the west keeps weather dry through Monday, likely through most of Tuesday as well before the next mid level trough moves through the region. This brings back shower and storm chances for Tuesday night and Wednesday, then dry weather is favored the rest of the work week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with the exception of a period of fog possible early this morning at SAW. Mentioned fog with 4sm vsby but could not rule out a few hours of vsby less 1sm (40% chance). Another front will push through the area today with increasing northwest winds behind it, bringing gusts to 20-25kt at SAW and CMX in the afternoon through the evening. A few isolated showers or a thunderstorm are expected over the central UP today but the probability of a terminal being impacted is too low to include in the TAFs (less than 20%). && .MARINE... Issued at 348 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Lake Superior - Northwest winds behind a cold front increase on Saturday to 20-30 kts over the east half of the lake by late afternoon, strongest near the south-central shores. Gusts approach 20 kts over the west. As winds become more northerly Saturday night behind a second cold front, central lake superior winds increase to 15-25 kts; the stronger winds to 30 kts over the east persist. This holds into Sunday morning before winds gradually simmer down from west to east into Sunday night. This builds significant waves of 3-7 ft over the southeastern waters this weekend. Probabilities for gales to 35 kts are only between 15-25%, highest south of Stannard Rock and along the Marquette/Alger County shores. Winds otherwise remain below 20 kts through Tuesday before the next system brings back winds up to 20-25 kts Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Northern Bay of Green Bay and northern Lake Michigan - Southerly winds of 15-25 kts ahead of the cold front this afternoon drop off into this evening, becoming northwest for Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening, but severe storms are not expected. Winds increase to 20-30 kts this weekend as a colder airmass descends over the Great Lakes. Winds fall back below 20 kts Sunday night, remaining below 20 kts through much of next week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for MIZ005-006. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...77/TDUD AVIATION...NL MARINE...77  443 FXUS61 KCLE 220814 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 414 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... There is now a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms from our central and eastern Ohio Counties points east into Northwest PA this afternoon and evening. Increased rain chances outside of the "snowbelt" Sunday afternoon/evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected to develop and then move east-southeast across the area this afternoon and evening. Some storms may turn severe with pockets of damaging winds the main risk. Isolated hail and locally heavy rain are secondary threats. 2) Below average temperatures arrive to end the weekend and start the upcoming week. Periodic lake-enhanced rain showers will primarily impact portions of Northeast OH and Northwest PA late tonight through at least Monday night, with a few showers or storms elsewhere Sunday afternoon/evening. 3) Outside of lake-enhanced showers, a period of dry and tranquil weather is expected the first half of the week. The next potential weather maker brings chances for showers and a few storms late Wednesday and primarily Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The combination of a low-level trough axis and modest warm air/ moisture advection has been fueling some thunderstorms early this morning, primarily over Lake Erie but extending southwest into parts of North Central OH as of 3 AM. While this activity is generally favored to lift east-northeast and diminish this morning, it may still be on the scope as the rest of the world awakens, particularly over and close to Lake Erie. While it may not be an entirely dry morning given this activity, greater shower and storm potential, including a risk for some strong to severe storms, awaits until the afternoon and evening hours. Aloft, a shortwave will dig into the central Great Lakes today into tonight while taking on a neutral to slightly negative tilt. This will encourage a weak surface low to slowly deepen while drifting out of northern Michigan and into southern Ontario late today and tonight. A pre-frontal trough is still expected to cross the area this afternoon and early evening from west to east, with a strong cold front arriving in Northwest OH late this afternoon and surging southeast across the area through this evening. Large scale forcing for ascent will maximize late this afternoon and evening as a vort max rounds the base of the deepening shortwave and rotates into the northern OH/Lake Erie vicinity, though more modest forcing is evident even earlier in the day. Showers/storms are expected to begin developing during the midday or early afternoon timeframe, with activity peaking in coverage, intensity, and organization during the late afternoon and early evening. Showers/storms are expected to exit southeast this evening with the cold front, with activity quickly transitioning to lake-enhanced showers later tonight. Activity will likely blossom along both the pre-frontal trough and a lake breeze near the northeastern shoreline near and east of the I-77 corridor this afternoon, and across Northwest OH along the cold front itself. Given the increasing forcing into the late afternoon/evening and multiple triggers for convection, it's likely that eastern portions of our area see the most widespread convection and greatest overall rain amounts, with some areas likely seeing multiple rounds in quick succession. With that said, nearly all CAMs develop fairly numerous storms along the cold front as it pushes across our western counties, so odds are that a large majority of the area will see a shower or storm this afternoon/evening on the balance. There is some potential for both severe weather and locally heavy rain with storms thisafternoon/evening, though the overall setup will not favor higher end convective hazards. Clouds and perhaps some ongoing shower/thunder activity will slow heating today, though weak to moderate, uncapped instability (1000-2000 J/KG of MLCAPE) is expected to develop through the afternoon as low-level lapse rates steepen to around 8C/km. Some pockets of dry air aloft will contribute to modest DCAPE values in the 500-800 J/KG range. These marginal thermodynamics, coupled with increasing forcing and modest deep- layer shear values of 20-30kt, can support loosely organized convection. The primary severe threat today will be locally damaging winds, most likely with any small lines or clusters that evolve but also possible with any more intense cells. Isolated large hail is also possible, mainly with any updrafts that exhibit transient rotation which is most likely within storms along/east of the pre-frontal trough where surface flow will be more backed. While the overall lower-end environment and potential for storms to quickly get "messy" and work over the atmosphere puts a lid on severe potential today, most CAMs have quite a bit of convection across our area with some organization depicted, giving the SPC confidence to introduce a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather for much of the area east of the I-75 corridor (and a Marginal/level 1 of 5 for I-75). In terms of heavy rain potential, storm motions from the west- southwest will be fairly parallel to the incoming cold front, so the potential for multiple rounds and/or transient training does exist. Precipitable water values and warm cloud depths are not especially concerning for efficient rain-rates, though we will need to monitor portions of Northeast OH/Northwest PA for repeated storms or training convection that can still drop localized 2-3" rain amounts. Otherwise, area-average QPF will generally be in the 0.25-1.00" range through this evening, least across Northwest OH and greatest across Northeast OH/Northwest PA. The WPC has introduced a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall/localized flash flooding across Northeast OH and Northwest PA in their latest excessive rainfall outlook. KEY MESSAGE 2... After pulling a cold front across the area this evening, the surface low and upper trough across the central/eastern Great Lakes will continue to deepen through Sunday while beginning to stack, cut-off, and slow. The system will then start to slowly fill/weaken Sunday night and Monday while drifting to the east- northeast across southeastern Canada and New England. The seasonably chilly airmass pulled in behind the cold front and lingering moist cyclonic flow behind the stacking surface low/ upper trough will give us an early taste of fall to end the weekend and start the week...including some lake-enhanced rain. 850mb temperatures will bottom out at 6-9C Sunday night into early Monday, with 700mb temperatures dipping a bit below 0C as 500mb temperatures fall to around -20C. Most of the area will dry out late this evening into the overnight as the cold front exits, though as cooler west- northwest flow aligns over the ~25C lake waters some lake- enhanced showers will begin developing and moving into Northeast OH/Northwest PA. A vort max and low-level trough axis will cross the region very late tonight into early Sunday, likely causing activity to peak in organization. While some lake effect showers will continue on Sunday across Northeast OH/Northwest PA, the activity will likely lose organization and intensity for several hours after the morning trough passage. Another potent vort max and low-level trough axis will drop in from the northwest late Sunday afternoon and evening, bringing another uptick in lake-enhanced shower activity over and east-southeast of Lake Erie from as far westas the Islands and Sandusky points east. There will also be an uptick in showers across the rest of the area with the trough passage late Sunday afternoon and evening. Chilly, cyclonic west-northwest flow continues through at least Monday night or early Tuesday and some lake effect/ enhanced shower activity remains likely. However, there will likely be a trend for activity to become less intense/organized later Sunday night and beyond as high pressure builds in. A possible exception is Monday night when another vort max and trough passage is hinted at. That could cause one last uptick in the lake-driven showers, especially farther east. In terms of any hazards, instability will be deep enough over the lake for some thunder/lightning potential with the lake- enhanced activity...especially through the first half of Sunday night. The overall set-up with a somewhat shorter west-northwest fetch and some wind shifts through the event isn't overly favorable for intense, banded rainfall with a flash flood risk across the snowbelt. However, rain amounts will gradually add up (especially through Sunday evening) where lake-enhanced showers are most frequent and the potential for localized flooding will need to be kept in mind, especially if parts of Northeast OH or Northwest PA see locally heavy rain today. The heaviest rain amounts will likely occur slightly inland from the lakeshore form the Cleveland area points east-northeast. Otherwise, with cold air aloft and stronger winds towards and above 500mb, any thunderstorms with the trough passage late Sunday afternoon/ evening may produce gusty winds and/or small hail...especially over and downwind of Lake Erie. KEY MESSAGE 3... Locations outside of any lake enhanced rain showers are expected to dry out Sunday night and remain dry into the first half of the week. Lake enhanced rain will gradually dwindle starting late Sunday night and eventually end by Tuesday as discussed above. Overall, this will lend to a tranquil first half of the week across much of the area. Temperatures will slowly rebound towards normal starting on Tuesday. Another trough is expected to dig into the Great Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday. This will likely be accompanied by another surface low and its associated fronts. Chances for showers and some storms may arrive as early as Wednesday afternoon/evening, but are most favored on Thursday with this system. && .AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... The primary concerns and possible impacts for our local aviation weather at area airports will be the potential for a round of scattered convection this afternoon into the early evening. There is a marginal risk for a couple strong to severe storms ahead of an approaching cold front later today. There is some isolated convection with a warm front early this morning which could impact CLE briefly between 06z and 09z with VCTS or TSRA. There will be a lull in shower and storm chances through late this morning. The cold front will start to move into NWOH around midday to early afternoon. There are PROB30 groups for a 5 to 6 hour time window from west to east between 16z this afternoon to 01z this evening. Any heavier showers and storm that impacts a TAF site will likely have a brief period of MVFR to IFR visibility reductions and ceilings with CB around 3K feet near the frontal passage. The convection should move eastward out of the NEOH and NWPA after 00z Scattered lake enhanced rain showers will likely develop around CLE, YNG, and ERI later this evening into the overnight with possible MVFR ceilings and visibility at times. Winds will start out from the south or southwest this morning 5 to 10 knots. Southwest winds will slightly increase 8 to 12 knots by midday through the afternoon/evening with gusts up to 20 knots possible. Any isolated strongto severe convection may have some isolated higher wind gusts up to 45 knots this afternoon. Winds will switch from the west-northwest late this evening and overnight 5 to 10 knots. Outlook...Non-VFR conditions will be likely Sunday through Monday morning with lake enhanced rain showers and isolated thunder possible for areas downwind of Lake Erie in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. && .MARINE... Marine weather conditions on Lake Erie will become rough and not ideal later tonight and continuing through late Monday. There is a round of strong storms over the central basin of Lake Erie this morning that will track eastward through Sunrise. Gusty winds up to 35 knots and isolated waterspouts could be possible with these early morning storms over the lake. A cold front will approach Lake Erie from the west late this afternoon and move across later this evening. Winds ahead of the cold front will be from the south to southwest 10 to 15 knots today and waves of 1 to 2 feet. Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible again this afternoon and evening with the frontal passage. Winds will shift around from the west to northwest tonight 15 to 20 knots and continue Sunday through Monday. Waves will increase 3 to 7 feet later tonight and those rough conditions will likely continue Sunday through Monday. Waterspouts will be very possible on Lake Erie starting tonight and lingering through Monday. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazard Statements for rip currents have been issued late tonight through at least Monday morning. These headlines will more than likely need to be extended later into Monday with future updates. High pressure will slowly build in Monday into Tuesday with nicer lake weather conditions returning by Tuesday. By Tuesday, winds will be westerly to southwesterly 5 to 15 knots and waves decreasing to 1 to 2 feet. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Monday morning for OHZ009>012-089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Monday morning for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Monday for LEZ144>149. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sullivan AVIATION...77 MARINE...77  637 FXUS65 KREV 220817 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 117 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Gusty southwest winds today bring critical fire weather conditions and lake recreation impacts to parts of northeast CA, northwest NV. * Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across parts of the eastern Sierra and western NV today and tomorrow. * Seasonal temperatures, overall dry conditions and afternoon breezes prevail for much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... A few light showers persist early this morning over portions of the CWA. Most of this activity should be done by sunrise. However, more showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon over portions of western NV and the eastern Sierra. The main area of concern will be Mineral, and eastern Mono/Churchill/Pershing counties, where we have the highest chances of precipitation of 30-40%. However, storm chances remain at 15-25%. Therefore, expect scattered showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the aforementioned areas. The main concerns with any storm will be gusty outflow winds to 40 mph, frequent lightning, periods of heavy rain with the strongest cells that could lead to flash flooding, and small hail. Furthermore, the position of the upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest and an upper trough moving inland into the PacNW will tighten our pressure gradient at the surface this afternoon leading to westerly gusts of 30-35 mph with isolated locations having a 30-60% chances of observing gusts to 40 mph over NE CA and NW NV including the Sierra Front. Lake Wind Advisories and a Red Flag Warning are in effect for this reason. For more about fire weather, please read the Fire Weather Section below. By Sunday, the winds and our chances for showers and thunderstorms decrease as the upper trough pushes the ridge farther east towards the Southern Plains, which sets the plume of monsoonal moisture towards central and eastern NV. So, the best chance for precipitation will be in the NV Basin and Range. Winds will be typical for this time of the year. For Monday and beyond, we remain under a sort of blocky pattern with the ridge retrograding back towards the Desert Southwest and a longwave trough persisting off the PacNW coast (occasionally sending shortwaves inland). This pattern leads to seasonal temperatures, afternoon breezes and generally dry conditions. However, the proximity to the monsoonal moisture plume could allow for isolated showers and thunderstorms in areas south of US-50. Plus, the incoming shortwaves have the potential to increase afternoon gusts every other day bringing back fire and recreation concerns throughout the week. -HC && .AVIATION... Mostly VFR conditions continue with mid to high level clouds. Mountain obscurations persist in the Sierra through 21Z-00Z this afternoon. SHRA/TSRA has a 10-40% chance to develop this afternoon for terminals south of Interstate 80, decreasing to 10-30% Sunday for KBAN/KHTH/KNFL/KLOL. Storms could bring periods of reduced CIGS and VIS. Gusty winds to 30 kts return between 20Z-03Z with some locations up to 35 kts. There is low potential for minor turbulence and LLWS after 00Z this evening. -HC && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire weather concerns return late this morning through the evening, as wind gusts increase to the 30-40 mph range across northeast CA, northwest NV, and the Northern Sierra Front. While humidity values aren't exceedingly low (minimums 10-18%), most of these areas did not receive much rainfall last week, resulting in a greater extent of dry vegetation where fire could spread more quickly when the winds pick up. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning continues in effect for these areas. So, be extra cautious and fire safe, avoid outdoorrecreation or work activities that could spark any fires. From Sunday through next week, afternoon breezes continue but at lower speeds compared to Saturday. The next period to watch is next Tuesday or Wednesday, when winds potentially trend upward, while afternoon humidity decreases as a dry air mass settles in. -MJD/HC && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday NVZ420-458. Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday NVZ003. CA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday CAZ270-278. Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday CAZ071. && $$  067 FXUS63 KFGF 220829 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 329 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. && .UPDATE... Issued at 329 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Near term/short term impacts are minimal with passing mid level CU, seasonal temperatures in the 70s to near 80. Forecast concern over the next 4 days continues to be on the potential for a few severe thunderstorms late Monday and potentially Tuesday. Monday signal in more reliable AI systems has backed off compared to 24hr ago, and this is primarily driven by less favorable timing of forcing/instability in relation to our our CWA. The trend is for a slower frontal arrival (more guidance keeps this west) and delay in better forcing from the shortwave trough. Deep layer/effective shear will be maximized in our area though during the afternoon/evening and as the front does approach elevated storms could support a hail threat. The mid/upper low shows more variance in track through Tuesday, with at least some ensemble guidance showing a closed mid level low and center of cold pool dropping over our northeast and eastern CWA and under that scenario there would be at least a conditional risk for weak tornadoes. The vast majority of ensemble guidance shows a weaker low center (more of an open wave) and a track farther north and east with only a minimal chance for showers/weak thunderstorms in our northeast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...Synopsis... NW flow continues to become more amplified the next few days with increasing ridging across the Rockies and high plains. Troughing off the Pacific coast looks to move ashore Saturday and flatten the ridge bringing increasing precipitation chances Monday and Tuesday. Ridging then returns for the mid and late week. Could see some strong to severe storms on Monday/Tuesday though there are still a some unknowns so wont speculate into the potential too much. Overall seasonal weather with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s each day and peak daily heat indices generally 80-85 making a it a comfortable stretch of late summer weather. - Today A shortwave is quickly traversing the northwest flow aloft with cold air advection behind yesterdays wave helping to steepen mid level lapse rates. Overall pretty skinny instability but reminiscent of a springtime northwest flow with a deepening CU field and the expectation for afternoon showers/thunderstorms once we reach the convective temp in the low to mid 80s this afternoon. Not likley to see high rainfall totals but a few locations in northwest Minnesota could squeak out a quick tenth. Severe weather is not expected with only 20-25kts of eff shear and 1000 j/kg of ML CAPE but some small hail is not out of the question. - Rain/Severe Chances Early Next Week Similar to yesterday AI ensembles agree strongly on the track of the wave through the canadian provinces on Monday afternoon/Tuesday morning with the Euro still the more progressive solution but the GFS is catching up as expected. Overall the expectation is for lee troughing east of the rockies with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 j/kg to support at least a wind and hail threat on Monday afternoon/evening across parts of the Dakotas. This does appear to evolve into a closed 500mb wave with closed isotherms as well within the low meeting the definition of a cold core low supporting a localized tornado threat in Saskatchewan and Manitoba Monday but given the track this appears to stay well north of our area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Simple TAFs over the next 24 hours. Winds have dropped off, and will remain under 5 knots out of the north/northwest overnight. Skies will be mostly clear overnight. There is a low chance for fog to develop, but with at least some northerly wind, it will likely be harder for it to develop tonight then it was last night. Therefore, I did not include fog in any TAFs at this time. Winds will increase again on Saturday, still out of the north/northwest, sustained at about 10 to 12 knots at all TAF sties by afternoon. A few gusts are likely at KFAR and KGFK as well, but will remain under 20 knots. Just as today, once the sun sets, winds will rapidly decrease Saturday evening. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...DJR DISCUSSION...TT AVIATION...Rafferty  376 FXUS62 KFFC 220832 CCA AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 432 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - A surface boundary will spark additional showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across portions of south-central Georgia. - Drier conditions on Sunday will be followed by a return to low daily rain chances for most from Tuesday onward. - Seasonal, less oppressive heat returns to North Georgia today and areawide by Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 227 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Currently: Much quieter tonight compared to this time yesterday. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms linger in the vicinity of Columbus and south of Macon but these are on the downward trend. A surface front bisects the forecast area with drier air starting to filter in behind it as noted by latest WV imagery. Temperatures are still warm thanks to high cirrus with readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Low clouds and patchy fog are likely this morning with improvements expected at or shortly after sunrise. Precipitation Trends: The surface front will continue to push through the forecast area today as a large upper troughing digs eastward towards the Atlantic Coast. Showers and thunderstorms will largely be focused along and south of the frontal boundary for this afternoon -- namely along and south of a line from Columbus to Sandersville. Similar to previous days, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall will accompany any storm. A secondary front will push through tonight and a stray shower or thunderstorm could accompany this feature. However, the brunt of the activity is likely to remain to our north. Dry conditions areawide are expected for Sunday afternoon and evening. Heat Trends: Drier air and lower dewpoints behind the front will lend to less oppressive heat for North Georgia today and areawide on Sunday. Daytime temperatures will still largely remain in the 90s but dewpoints in the 60s will make being outside a little less miserable this weekend. Forecast highs today and Sunday will rise into the low to mid 90s with temperatures in the 80s for the higher elevations. Overnight temperatures are forecast to fall into the 60s to low 70s each night/early morning. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 227 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The long term begins with an upper-level longwave trough set up over our region that will remain in place and result in drier conditions through the first half of next week. As drier conditions filter into the CWA, it will set up a nice run of drier days, with slightly cooler mornings, providing us with favorable conditions for outdoor activities. Additionally, precipitation chances will be limited through at least Tuesday, with dry mid to upper level conditions spreading across the region in combination with lower precipitable water values between 0.5-1 inch. By mid-week, the axis of the trough lifts out of the CWA toward the northeast, and the pattern will become more zonal, allowing for an influx of moisture from the Gulf, increasing our precipitation chances and humidity by mid-week. This will result in a return to the typical August diurnal thunderstorm pattern we are accustomed to as we move into the latter half of next week. Daytime temperatures will likely climb back into the low to mid-90s, with possible triple- digit heat indices for the second half of the workweek. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 109 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Mostly VFR though a period of patchy SCT MVFR and IFR cigs may develop most likely between 08-12z. Patchy low cigs 4-6SM also possible. Light and VRB wind overnight picking up from the NW for the northern sites and SW to W at the southern sites. Once the front clears CSG/MCN winds will veer NW. Speeds 5-8kts. Iso to Sct tsra Sat aftn mainly south of MCN and CSG. Chances too low to mention in TAF at this time. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium confidence on lower cigs tonight. High confidence on all other elements. 07 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 92 69 92 65 / 0 10 0 0 Atlanta 92 72 91 68 / 0 10 0 10 Blairsville 85 62 83 58 / 0 10 0 0 Cartersville 93 68 91 64 / 0 10 0 10 Columbus 95 72 95 70 / 10 10 0 10 Gainesville 91 69 89 65 / 0 10 0 0 Macon 93 71 94 68 / 20 10 10 0 Rome 93 68 91 64 / 0 10 0 10 Peachtree City 92 69 92 66 / 0 10 0 10 Vidalia 93 73 96 71 / 40 10 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....82 AVIATION...07  400 FXUS63 KGLD 220832 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 232 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing sub-severe storms in northwest Kansas will track southeastward into central Kansas by sunrise. - Storms forecast to develop along the CO Front Range late this afternoon will track east toward the KS border this evening. A few storms capable of producing small hail and localized wind gusts up to 65 mph are possible, mainly in eastern CO between 7-11 PM MDT. - Expect near average temperatures today followed by a modest warming trend on Sunday and Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 230 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 No significant change(s) to prior forecast reasoning and expectations for the weekend. Today, the upper ridge axis will run from eastern Wyoming and Colorado to the Texas panhandle. Convection will develop in the afternoon over the Rockies and Front Range with the southwest flow, then move across the eastern plains and spreading into the area tonight. With the later arrival, probably not until after 03Z, storms will be weakening but may still pose a marginal risk for damaging wind gusts as they make their way across the area through the overnight. The ridge flattens out on Sunday and extends from the Four Corners to the Texas panhandle. Zonal flow over the top through northern Colorado will initiate convection over the mountains and Front Range, and once again make the trek across the plains and into the area Sunday night. These will arrive slightly earlier, 00-02z, in far northeast Colorado and may still pose a marginal wind and hail threat, but with only weak instability forecast and deep layer shear around 20 kts, severe chances will be low. Storms will gradually weaken as they move east into the remainder of the area Sunday evening. The ridge strengthens a bit on Monday with height rises in Colorado, and the zonal flow is through southern Wyoming. Forecast instability is weak and generally less than 1000 j/kg, though deep layer shear does increase to around 40 kts. RFS suggests a few scattered storms developing, moving east and then southeast with the mean flow Monday afternoon and evening in areas generally north of Interstate 70 with perhaps a marginal risk for wind and hail. The temperature trend for the period will be near to slightly above normal through the weekend, then above normal on Monday with temperatures currently forecast in the mid to upper 90s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 202 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Synoptically, a ridge is forecast to be over the SW CONUS and currently looks to remain relatively stationary. Throughout the week, there appears to be a few shortwaves moving though the CWA, which may bring higher precipitation chances. High temperatures for the week are forecast to be in the 90s for the majority of the area. The "coolest" day for the period looks to be Wednesday, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s, whereas Friday looks to be the hottest with highs in the mid 90s. If the ridge begins to amplify or move eastward, as guidance hints, higher temperatures could be seen. Winds throughout the week are forecast to be calm to breezy, and relative humidity values are expected to be higher than 30%, which should help minimize fire weather concerns. Precipitation chances are present during the week. As some shortwaves move around the high, they will likely to be our main precipitation producers. The day currently with the highest precipitation chances is Tuesday. Guidance hints at some vorticity associated with the shortwave as it moves through Tuesday afternoon. Both CAPE and shear appear sufficient for severe storms; however, some guidance indicates a mismatch between higher/lower CAPE and lower/higher shear, which could lead to less organized storms. Looking at qpf, some guidance shows the possibility of heavy rainfall with these storms, which is something to keep in mind as we get closer to Tuesday. The rest of the week there is roughly a 15-30% chance of PoPs as various shortwaves move through the region. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 230 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 GLD: Aside from a potential for sub-VFR ceilings or fog an hour or two on either side of sunrise, VFR conditions will prevail through the 12Z TAF period. Low confidence in stratus/fog development. Gusty and erratic winds in vicinity of decaying showers/storms are possible until ~11Z. Otherwise, light northeasterly or variable winds will become ESE or SE and modestly increase to 10-15 knots late this morning and persist through the afternoon. MCK: Aside from a potential for sub-VFR ceilings or fog an hour or two on either side of sunrise, VFR conditions will prevail through the 12Z TAF period. Low confidence in stratus/fog development. Light northeasterly or variable winds will become ESE or SE and modestly increase to 10-15 knots during the late morning and persist through the afternoon. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...024/Vincent LONG TERM...Holdren AVIATION...Vincent  726 FXUS62 KKEY 220840 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 440 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Conditions remain somewhat favorable for an island cloud line and associated waterspouts this afternoon. - Rain and thunder chances will gradually return to near normal by early to middle of next week. - Highs near 90 and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s suggest afternoon heat indices will peak at 105 to 108 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 431 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 At the surface, a weak region of high pressure is extending from the Bahamas, across the Keys, and through the Gulf associated with both a deep-layer Atlantic ridge and persistent, broad ridging centered over the Desert Southwest. Longwave troughing extends from an upper-level low over Quebec to as far south as the northeastern Gulf where a localized lower height region and subtle surface trough continues to support isolated to scattered shower/thunderstorm activity in the waters west of Tampa. A weak frontal boundary will stall along the Gulf Coast region today. It appears that deeper moisture content will remain focused just to our north/northwest closer to the convergent axis while latest forecast soundings and short term guidance suggests our PWATs will remain near the 10th to 25th percentiles for today, ranging from 1.4-1.6". This localized pocket of drier air is currently viewable on the GOES-E Split Window product and will likely be the primary limiting factor for our rain chances today. Our winds will remain on the weaker side with a general southeasterly component due to being within influence of the western periphery of the North Atlantic ridge, but winds may become variable at times this afternoon in which case conditions could become somewhat conducive for waterspouts if cloud line formation is able to occur. Otherwise, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms across the Upper Keys due to weak low-level speed convergence over the Bahamas which may support isolated thunderstorm develop west of Andros Island this afternoon. Any development that occurs may drift into the eastern Straits of Florida and towards the Upper Keys. This setup will remain largely unchanged through Sunday and into next week due to the stagnant upper-level pattern. With mostly sunny skies and rain chances below-normal, afternoon heat indices along the island chain should easily reach the 105-108 degree range with highs in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. Moisture advection early next week should bring the return of near- normal, to perhaps above-normal, rain chances, particularly as southeasterly flow becomes better established and the forecast area becomes better aligned with the zone of weak low-level speed convergence. && .MARINE... Issued at 431 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a split ridge pattern remains in place across the Florida Keys coastal waters. This will promote generally light to gentle southeast to south breezes through Sunday, becoming variable at times during the afternoon hours. While North Atlantic ridging builds westward, southeasterly to easterly breezes will become more established for Sunday night through the middle of next week, becoming gentle and at times moderate during the overnight hours. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 431 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are forecast to continue at both terminals through this TAF period. Weak surface ridging will promote generally light, SE winds, occasionally VRB during the afternoon, and dry low to mid- level air should limit our overall rain chances today. Will monitor for cloud line formation this afternoon in which case a vicinity shower or storm may develop, but confidence is too low to mention in the TAF at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 92 82 92 83 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 90 82 90 82 / 10 20 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DM Aviation/Nowcasts....DM Data Acquisition.....DM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest  802 FXUS61 KCTP 220842 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 442 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SPC expanded the MRGL RIsk for SVR TSRA areas today (Western half of the CWA) and for tomorrow (approx 90 percent of the CWA, except for the Southern Tier of the state). && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Upper level low pressure swinging SE from the upper Glakes to southern Ontario will lead to high temps trending cooler by a few to several degrees each day through Monday along with periods of showers and isolated to scattered gusty thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Upper level low pressure swinging SE from the upper Glakes to southern Ontario will lead to high temps trending cooler by a few to several degrees each day through Monday along with periods of showers and isolated to scattered gusty thunderstorms. Significant amplification of a longwave trough will occur over the next several days across the Glakes, Mid Atlantic region and Central Appalachian with 500 mb height falls of 60-100 meters and mean 850-700 mb layer temps of around 6 deg C from this evening to Monday morning. Abundant sunshine expected across the CWA North and West of the Lower Susq Valley with max temps this afternoon generally between 75-80F. The initial lead shortwave and right entrance region of a 65 kt upper level jet trailing a zone of very sharp upper diffluence over the western 1/3 of PA late today/early tonight will support development of scattered strong to severe TSRA across the western 1/3 to 1/2 of our CWA with the likely evolution/upscale growth of multicell clusters into a bkn line of TSRA with its axis near the RT 219 corridor between 00Z and 03Z Sunday where 0-1KM EHI will be in the 1-1.5 M2/S2 range and 0-3 KM Bulk shear will be average 20-25 KTS with some pockets just above 30 kts across the NW Mtns near KBFD at 03Z Sunday. HREF MU CAPE Values do drop off fairly quickly from their late afternoon/early evening peak of 1200-1500 J/KG across western PA, and the severe threat will be diminished by 02z across the Mtns of Western PA. The eastern half of PA will get the gradually weakening convection later this evening/overnight. For Sunday, the best larger scale/deep layer cooling aloft will occur across the eastern half of the state and that will be the focus for the SVR threat. MU CAPE will be lower by around 500 J/KG but deep layer swrly shear will be 35-40 kts across our eastern CWA. Therefore, SPC's MRGL risk covers the better threat for gusty winds with the storms across the eastern half of PA on Sunday with some isolated occurrences of pea to marble size hail in the taller storms Sunday. The cyclonic flow may keep showers downwind of Lake Erie into Monday. Daytime highs will be near to slightly below the historical average for late August, making it feel more like mid September especially Sunday into Monday. SPC trimmed the MRGL back a bit to the west on Saturday, which should feature early day clouds and a few showers spreading from SE to NW during the day. Drier/less humid conditions are likely to prevail during the first half of next week. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As mentioned in the previous update, drier air and slightly more persistent winds will preclude a more widespread fog risk tonight. BR development at some sites though cannot be ruled out though. Confidence in MVFR ceilings developing this morning is highest at LNS and to a lesser extent MDT given greater moisture return in the southeast. While VFR in a SCT/BKN low level cloud deck will be the prevailing conditions tomorrow, some isolated showers are possible in the afternoon. Chances for this are highest at MDT and LNS with spotty morning activity possible as well. This activity may leadto bounces between VFR and MVFR throughout the day tomorrow in the southeast, with greater restrictions more likely at LNS. This showery activity will be ahead of a cluster of storms moving through in the evening/early night. Have updated PROB30s for -TSRA to reflect most confident timing at the current moment. HREF ensemble and NBM trending later in storm timing in their most recent runs. Should a strong core cross paths with an airfield, brief IFR restrictions are possible. Outlook... Sun...Restrictions possible, mainly NW in SHRA. Improvement elsewhere. Mon-Wed...Patchy morning fog, otherwise mainly VFR conditions return early next week. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Steinbugl DISCUSSION...Lambert/Steinbugl AVIATION...Lambrech  799 FXUS65 KPIH 220842 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 242 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms return to all of southern Idaho. Thunderstorms continue through the next seven days for many locations in southern Idaho. - Red Flag Warnings in place for scattered thunderstorms today for all of Central Idaho Dispatch area, Southern Idaho Dispatch area, and portions of the Eastern Idaho Dispatch area. - After record heat the past two days, clouds and precipitation will cool afternoon highs significantly today, then continue a weak overall cooling trend through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Long wave ridge will allow a weak shortwave to move through the mean southwest flow over the Gem State. This will enhance the thunderstorm activity in the already moist and unstable air over the forecast area. SPC has put nearly the entire forecast area in a marginal threat of severe thunderstorms (except a small wedge in Bear Lake County at the border with Utah. Thunderstorm threat is as high as 40 percent in the southern and eastern highlands. Could easily get G50KT for thunderstorm outflow. The increased moisture will mean more clouds and rainfall can cause evaporative cooling to bring the record temperatures of Thu and Fri down some 3 to 8 deg F. The cooling continues into Sun and Mon, but at a slower rate, with temperatures still in the upper 80s to around 90 on Sun and Mon. Overnight lows continue mild with the cloud cover. Wind stays weak today, but Sun will see 14 to 24 mph wind in the central Idaho mountains and the northwest side of the Snake River plain. Wind of this strength does not show up again until perhaps Thu. For other items in the extended (Tue through Fri), the strong upper level ridge is finally beaten down in some of the clusters on either Thu or Fri, but still only affects the forecast area in about 53 percent of the solutions. Upper level flow appears more southwest than south, which should cut down significantly on thunderstorm coverage during the extended period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 945 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Quite a bit of mostly showers with isolated thunderstorms working up from the south. A rogue gust to 30kts is possible overnight, but probably not very likely. Convection should clear around 12z with next round of storms expected during the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 211 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 An influx of moist and unstable air, including the possibilities of outflow from a thunderstorm hitting 58+mph, will reach nearly everywhere in the Fire Weather Forecast area. Coverage of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening peaks at 25 percent to 45 percent, so Red Flag Warnings were issued yesterday for abundant lightning. Thunderstorm coverage lowers considerably for Sun, but then may be up again on Mon. Fortunately, the moist air is pushing humidity readings up. Most readings will stay well above the 15 percent threshold for critical fire weather criterion. Cloud cover helps, as the high temperatures that lately have been setting records will be solidly cooler. The cooling and more humid trend continues through Mon. One offset to this is that the cloud cover will keep temperatures warmer at night, so recovery may not be as good, unless some wetting rains occur. Wind will be up on Sun, mainly over the central Idaho mountains and the Snake River plain/eastern Magic Valley. It should be enough to meet critical fire weather speeds, but the humidity should be too high for any sort of critical fire weather situation. More wind develops Thu afternoon, but temperatures should be even cooler than this weekend, which bodes will for humidity readings. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ410-422-425-427-475-476. && $$ DISCUSSION...Messick AVIATION...13 FIRE WEATHER...Messick  074 FXUS61 KOKX 220847 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 447 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rounds of showers this weekend, possible thunderstorms. Marginal severe risk Sunday into Sunday evening. 2) After possible lingering showers Monday, prolonged stretch of mainly dry weather next week Monday night though midweek. Temperatures trend from below normal to closer to normal. 3) Chances for showers and thunderstorm return towards the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Rounds of showers this weekend, possible thunderstorms. Marginal severe risk Sunday into Sunday evening. The weather pattern taking shape for this weekend is unsettled featuring cyclonic flow aloft and surface low pressure not too far away from the local area. Deep shear present much of the time for the area near 30-35 kt. 500mb forecast model charts indicate a faster decline of heights tonight through the rest of the weekend. Strong shortwave moves into Great Lakes today and then moves southeast of the Great Lakes tonight into early Monday. At the surface, behind one wave of low pressure along a front, another low pressure wave approaches late tonight. The wave of low pressure also passes northeast of the region early Sunday. While model PWATs indicate near 2 inches with the wave of low pressure, the pattern is progressive and convective elements are expected to exhibit a sufficient translational speed to mitigate flooding potential. Also related to this is where the higher chances of thunderstorms are forecast which for tonight is more across parts of Long Island where flash flood guidance is higher. Overall, expect any flooding to stay minor nuisance within urban, low-lying and poor drainage areas. However, the trough of low pressure will still be near the area. This will be an associated cold front moving through the area Sunday but weakening and dissipating Sunday night. Dewpoints will be trending higher and the air will be more humid. Despite this, PWATs are actually decreasing Sunday into Sunday night with relatively more shear compared to the previous day. CAPE will be limited with all the clouds and shower activity before the cold front moves in. Still though in this low CAPE high shear environment, a thunderstorm could quickly mature and become strong with a quick downburst of wind. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms for much of the area Sunday into Sunday evening. The limiting factor will be the decreasing moisture in the atmosphere which will not allow for much expansion of convection and limit its coverage. .KEY MESSAGE 2... After possible lingering showers Monday, prolonged stretch of mainly dry weather next week Monday night though midweek. Temperatures trend from below normal Monday through Tuesday to closer to normal Tuesday night through Wednesday. Still have quite a bit of cyclonic flow aloft Monday with deep trough cutoff low making its way across the Northeast. The center of the cutoff upper level low is well north of the local area. Another weak cold front moves across Monday night but will not have much moisture associated with it. The POPs will be pretty low with this front and a lot of locations may very well end up staying dry. Models coherent on an area of positive vorticity maxima moving into the local region Monday morning into Monday afternoon. While there is a lot of westerly flow, models are struggling to depict much if any precipitation and why the national blend of models is dry. However, the cyclonic flow aloft and positive vorticity advection will present strong forcing for more clouds and some shower or thunderstorm activity. Coverage only isolated to widely scattered for any showers and thunderstorms. More height rises seen in the mid levels Monday night through midweek. A pattern change is evident within the forecast models of a transition from cyclonic cutoff low to quasi-zonal flow. At the surface, after the cold front Monday night, another cold front moves across Tuesday night, followed by weak high pressure heading into the middle of the week. Dry conditions are expected to prevail with more westerly flow getting established within the atmosphere. .KEY MESSAGE 3... The models are forecasting the approach of another frontal system from the west along with an upper level trough towards the latter part of next week. This will make for a return to a more unsettled weather pattern. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low pressure drifts away from the terminals early this morning. Another wave of low pressure slowly approaches from the south late today into tonight. Mainly VFR into the start of the morning push, excluding KGON where MVFR cigs prevail. MVFR cigs may get into other eastern terminals like KISP and KBDR 1-2 hours earlier than indicated in TAFs for this morning. Prevailing MVFR cigs are expected to move in towards 14-15z this morning, and could be borderline VFR/MVFR through late in the afternoon, especially for NYC terminals and north and west. Latest trends have KSWF remaining VFR through today. PROB30 now for -RA during this afternoon for most terminals, with the exception being for northern terminals. MVFR ceilings become more widespread after 00z Sunday, along with some IFR ceilings possible, especially towards and after 06z Sunday. Light winds early this morning and either VRB or N to NE in direction. E/SE winds under 10kt for today. The winds will be light, mainly at or under 5 kt into this evening. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... AMD possible with borderline VFR/MVFR cigs today. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Late Saturday night: Showers and potential thunderstorms late. MVFR becoming mainly IFR. Sunday: A chance of showers, especially north of the city terminals. Possible thunderstorms. Chance of MVFR or lower at times. Monday through Wednesday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Pressure gradient remains relatively weak through the forecast period. Conditions on the forecast marine zones stay below SCA thresholds. Rip Currents: The rip current risk with very light winds today looks to be overall low. With increasing southerly winds Sunday, more of a moderate rip current risk is expected. The swell will still have southerly and easterly components. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...JE MARINE...JM  044 FXUS65 KLKN 220846 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 146 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Subtropical moisture will help to fuel afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the middle of next week * Some showers and thunderstorms could produce brief moderate to heavy rain with the main threat of debris flows on recently burned areas * Cooling trend begins today as mid-level moisture and increasing cloud cover continues its northward trajectory && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Saturday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Monsoonal flow will continue to bring shower and thunderstorm chances for the Silver State through the middle of next week. Models show a daily 20% to 50% chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Storm modes at this time favor wet storm modes for central and eastern Nevada. However, for western Nevada from about Battle Mountain and points west, there will still be a chance for a few dry thunderstorms, or for storms that have very little in the way of accumulating precipitation. Common hazard for storms will include gusty outflow winds up to 50 MPH, ground lightning strikes, and brief heavy rainfall. Will need to watch central Nevada burn scars as recent fires an hydrophobic soils may lead to flash flooding concerns if cells are slower moving. After Wednesday, models show that the upper ridge will try and work its way back west and shifting the upper flow back to a WSW direction, thus cutting off moisture flow by Thursday of next week. There may be a low chance for thunder on Thursday and Friday depending on how much residue moisture can stick around. Temperatures will be on a cooling trend as the surge of moisture and the displacement of the ridge will allow highs to cool back into the low 80s to low 90s, or cooler if you see a thundershower. Overnight lows will be dropping into the mid 50s to mid 60s giving a nice break from the recent heat. Winds will be breezy through the weekend and into the new week as winds shift more south to southwest in line with the upper level flow pattern at speeds of 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH possible. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence for the return of southerly flow and monsoonal moisture beginning Friday afternoon, bringing a daily 20% to 50% chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for Nevada through Wednesday. There is low to medium confidence of upper pattern evolution after Wednesday as models show a weakening of the monsoon flow as the upper level ridge returns to the west bringing warmer temperatures. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through Saturday evening. Winds will be out of the south to southwest at 5KT to 15KT with gusts to 25KT possible for all terminals. VCTS will be possible during afternoon and evening hours as monsoonal flow keeps a 20% to 50% chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Southerly flow will keep monsoonal moisture over the region through Wednesday of next week. This moisture will keep a daily 20% to 50% chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for central and northern Nevada. Hazards from storms will include gusty outflow winds up to 50 MPH, Ground lightning strikes, and brief heavy rainfall. For Western Nevada there will be a higher chance for a few dry thunderstorms each day as mid level moisture here won’t be as deep as locations farther east which may keep Fire weather concerns elevated for a time during the afternoons before storm mature. Winds will generally be out of the south to southwest at 10 to 20 MPH with a few gusts up to 30 MPH possible. Temperature will be on a cooling trend through Wednesday as well with high in the low 80s to low 90s. High Pressure looks to build back west Thursday and Friday bringing drier conditions and warmer temperatures for the end of next week. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...98 AVIATION...98 FIRE WEATHER...98  146 FXUS65 KTWC 220850 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 150 AM MST Sat Aug 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms expected this weekend, with daily but gradually reduced chances through next week. Strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will be possible with any thunderstorm. High temperatures will remain above normal through the coming week. && .DISCUSSION...Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies currently across southeast Arizona as a strong mid/upper level high is currently centered over New Mexico. Latest GOES total precipitable water imagery shows PWAT values around 1 inch for locales east of Tucson, increasing to around 1.2 to 1.4 inches from Tucson westward and these values are pretty close to normal for this time of year. As east to southeast steering flow continues around the high pressure, there will be enough moisture in place today for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening. With the drier air east of Tucson, coverage will be a bit more isolated out that way, with scattered storms from Tucson south and westward. Main concern today with the storms is for strong gusty winds due to inverted-v profiles. The HREF 40-km neighborhood probability indicates a 10 to 30 percent chance of 50-kt winds from Santa Cruz County extending westward into the T.O. Nation and western Pima County. Locally heavy rain with the stronger storms resulting in an isolated flash flood threat will be a secondary concern. The Extreme Heat Warning also remains in place today for much of the region with highs 5 to 8 degrees above normal. While the mid/upper level high will initially remain to our east through early next week and weaken slightly Sunday and Monday, allowing temperatures to 'cool' a few degrees those two days, that won't last long as the high will transition westward into Arizona by Wednesday and strengthen once again with temperatures warming back up as an extended period of well above normal temperatures returns through the rest of the week into next weekend. In terms of storm coverage beyond today, moisture will remain in place, especially from Tucson westward allowing for continued isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances mainly during the afternoon and evening hours Sunday and Monday. Thereafter, while some moisture remains, as the high builds west and subsidence aloft increases, storm coverage should decrease with a lower grade pattern for much of the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION...Valid through 23/12Z. SCT clouds 9-13k ft AGL this morning. Expect scattered SHRA/TSRA to develop aft 22/21Z, mainly west of a KFHU-KSAD line, diminishing by 23/06Z. Gusts in excess of 40 kts are expected with the stronger storms. Otherwise surface winds light and terrain driven. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected this weekend with daily but gradually reduced chances as next week progresses. Temperatures will remain above normal through the coming week. Minimum relative humidity values mainly 15-30 percent each day with light and terrain driven wind. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ501-502- 504>506-509. && $$ Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson  510 FXUS64 KHUN 220858 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 358 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New NEAR TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 358 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - There is a low to medium chance of patchy, dense fog early this morning. - A few thunderstorms may impact the western portion of north AL late this afternoon/early this evening. Brief strong wind gusts could accompany the most intense cells. - There are low to medium chances of thunderstorms for much of next week. However, timing and impact confidence remains low at this time. && .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Scattered high-level convective debris clouds (originating from convection yesterday evening along the central Gulf Coast) will continue to spread northeastward across the TN Valley early this morning. However, due to the translucent nature of the clouds, conditions will remain favorable for radiational cooling as calm winds will exist within a weakening dome of high pressure centered to our north. Thus, we expect temperatures to fall a few more degrees from current readings, with lows in the m-u 60s. Although patchy, locally dense fog has sporadically developed in some of our normally fog-prone locations, this has not yet become sufficiently widespread for the issuance of an advisory. Well to our northwest, a weakening complex of thunderstorms will continue to progress south-southeastward across eastern IL early this morning (in advance of a reinforcing cold front entering the western Great Lakes and Mid-MS Valley), with additional clusters of convection in progress from central NE southward into OK. As the cold front advances further southeastward today, renewed development of thunderstorms is expected by early this afternoon with greatest concentration from the OH Valley southeastward into the central/southern Appalachians (where synoptic scale forcing for ascent will be stronger) and from the Ozarks southeastward into northern MS (where the front may intercept a mesoscale boundary from convective complexes across the central Plains this morning, forcing the development of a new MCS). Although isolated convective cells may evolve across central/western parts of KY/TN this afternoon (in the vicinity of the front), 0Z CAMs suggest a lower spatial coverage in this region (perhaps due to weaker lift and fairly dry profiles with PWATs in the 1.2-1.4" range). Thus, it appears as if our main concern for thunderstorms will be related to eastward- propagating outflow from a loosely organized MCS dropping southeastward into MS (and should be confined to the southwestern portion of the forecast area between 22Z and 2Z, at which point convection should weaken with the onset of nocturnal cooling). With MLCAPE expected to reach 1000-1500 J/kg late this afternoon as NW flow aloft begins to strengthen (due to an amplifying trough over the Great Lakes), a few strong wind gusts (up to 40-50 MPH) could occur with the most significant cells. Otherwise, abundant sunshine will allow temps to reach the l-m 90s for most of the valley this afternoon, as dewpoints mix down into the lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 751 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Dry weather with seasonal temperatures are foreseen on Sunday with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 as high pressure builds south from the Upper Midwest into the OH and TN valleys. Overnight lows will be on the cool side with lower to middle 60s. NW flow at 5h will persist into Monday, with a low to mid level Theta-E gradient and convergence zone located across IA through MO and AR. This will be the genesis region of clusters of showers and thunderstorms which will likely be elevated/higher based as they reach our area onMonday, when we have low chances in the forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 751 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 In the extended forecast, we will get a break from the extreme heat conditions, however in exchange for that, we will be stuck in an unsettled pattern. We will start off with the pattern of an upper level low up in Quebec and the far NE U.S with an amplified ridge stretching from the southern Rockies up through the Northern Plains. On the back side of the ridge, a smaller upper-level low in Manitoba will try to be the driving force for a pattern change. As that smaller low slides SE into the Upper Great Lakes mid-week, the ridge will be dampened enough for it to round the ridge. This pattern will keep us in a northwesterly flow through the week. Embedded in this flow will be shortwaves that will swing through the TN Valley, keeping daily rain chances in. Right now it looks like there is a chance for an MCS to drop through on Tuesday, then again Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Will keep an eye on trends for specific hazards and timing, but for now will stick with NBM POPs. Daytime highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows around 70 degrees. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 134 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Scattered high-lvl convective debris clouds (from earlier convection along the central Gulf Coast) will continue to spread northeastward over the region early this morning. However, skies should remain sufficiently clear to permit the development of patchy BR/FG btwn 9-13Z, especially with calm winds. Thus, a TEMPO group for minor MVFR vsby reductions has been included at both HSV/MSL during this timeframe. With a drier profile in place today, we expect mostly sunny skies with only a few Cu beneath a sct layer of Ac. Lgt NW flow (~5 kts) will prevail for much of the day, with winds expected to veer to the north and strengthen this evening as a reinforcing cold front begins to shift southward thru the TN Valley. Although a few low-topped SHRA may evolve along the front region-wide this evening, chances for TSRA will be slightly higher at MSL (due to a more organized complex of convection tracking southeastward into northern MS). Regardless, precip chances are too low to mention in either TAF attm. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...70/DD SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM...JMS AVIATION...70/DD