707 FXAK67 PAJK 221201 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 401 AM AKDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - An active weather pattern will continue into Monday with mostly cloudy skies and periods of rain, which may become locally heavy across the southern panhandle. - Winds are likely to be variable with frontal passages, and at times gusty. && .SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday Night/...Following steady rains overnight and some that was locally heavy, especially between Skagway and Juneau, we are currently seeing some improvement in conditions. The heaviest precipitation is now advancing eastward with mainly light rainfall in its wake as weak high pressure attempts to move toward the panhandle. This will bring a brief respite through much of the day, but cloudiness and occasional light rain will prevail, particularly with the low level flow remaining south-southwesterly and at least one additional weak shortwave traversing the area. By tonight, the next low pressure system and associated front will enter the central Gulf and bring a return of more persistent rainfall. Rain will first reach the northeast Gulf Coast by midnight and then overtake the northern/central panhandle during Sunday. The axis of heavier precipitation may push into the southern panhandle by Sunday evening and could become enhanced in that area as another wave of low pressure affects the same region Sunday night into early Monday. Rainfall amounts in these areas may exceed 2 inches, with lighter amounts farther north. The NBM even suggests amounts over 3 inches from Ketchikan eastward for the 24-hr period ending 18Z Monday. However, we are not expecting significant or widespread hydrological concerns at this time given the relatively dry antecedent conditions, especially south of Frederick Sound, but this will be monitored closely. For more on the Monday forecast and beyond, please see the long-term discussion below. High temperatures will generally be a bit cooler today, ranging from the mid 50s along the northeast Gulf, while possibly still reaching the upper 60s in the extreme south. For Sunday, we expect the cooling trend to continue given rainfall and lower cloudiness. .LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/...The low pressure system bringing widespread rainfall to the panhandle Sunday will continue to shift southeastward through Monday, moving out of the northern panhandle and lingering over the southern and parts of the central panhandle through the day. The models have come more in line on the low positioning, indicating that the southern panhandle will see the highest rainfall amounts with this system. As the low moves in from the west, the northern panhandle should see the front move in first before rainfall quickly spreads to the rest of the panhandle through Sunday morning. Most of this rain will fall overnight into early Monday morning, tapering off from northwest to southeast through Monday evening. Expecting around an inch and a half of rainfall for parts of the southern panhandle in 24 hours from early Monday morning through early Tuesday morning. Light winds are expected for a majority of the panhandle behind the front, though sea breezes are expected to increase through some of the inner channels Tuesday afternoon, particularly in Lynn Canal. Potential for a break continues to increase for the early week as the low dips south, though keeping an eye on upper level easterly flow that may allow for showers in BC to traverse into the panhandle. The northern and central panhandle have potential to see some sun behind this front on Monday, with the southern panhandle joining in by Tuesday. The slight period of ridging that develops over the eastern gulf should allow winds in the inner channels to switch to a more offshore direction overnight before the weather becomes more active through the second half of the week. With the potential for clearing, sea breezes should increase through midday and turn winds back onshore for a period. Daytime high temperatures will also increase above normal for days that see this clearing, allowing for highs reaching the high 60s to low 70s across the panhandle Tuesday. The next system is expected to reach the panhandle through Wednesday. NBM PoP is getting washed out through the end of the week, so slightly increased confidence through the northern panhandle with the onset of the front. && .AVIATION... Through the night, a front has been moving south through the Alaska Panhandle. At the time of this writing, the front is currently just east of Juneau to Angoon line, and currently moving Southeastward. Flight conditions have been variable for the Northern Panhandle, but generally look to be improve to VFR on the backside of the front. As the front pushes southward, expect rain chances to generally increase, and flight conditions generally deteriorating until 00Z Sunday. Expect ceilings AoA 3500 feet by 00Z for the Southern Panhandle. Another low pressure system will approach the area, and lead to low VFR/MVFR ceilings by 12Z Sunday. && .MARINE... (Inner channels): A front is moving through the Inner Channels this morning with the strongest winds in Lynn Canal. Eldred Rock has observed sustained southerly winds around 25 kts. As the front continues to dissipate, these winds are expected to diminish through the day. Early Sunday, another frontal system will approach SE Alaska. By Monday, this system looks to move toward Prince of Wales Island. The increasing pressure gradient will increase the winds in the Southern Inner Channels, including Clarence Strait. Expecting south winds from Dixon Entrance into southern Clarence Strait up to 25 kts Monday morning. As the low weakens, the winds in the Southern inner channels are also expected to diminish into Tuesday. (Outside waters): A front is moving through SE Alaska as a low pressure system weakens and moves into Canada. Behind the front, there is onshore winds out of the west in the Gulf of Alaska. This system is expected to weaken before another low pressure system moves into the Gulf of Alaska Sunday morning. This system is expected to bring an increase in winds Sunday morning. Strongest winds are expected early Sunday morning on the SE side of the low pressure system. Winds in the eastern Gulf of Alaska are expected to be SW near 25 kts, but diminish Sunday afternoon with a decreasing pressure gradient force. && .FIRE WEATHER... && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJB LONG TERM...ZTK AVIATION...Musall MARINE...Musall Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  858 FXUS61 KALY 221205 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 805 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SPC expanded the Marginal Risk for isolated severe weather (level 1 of 5) on Sunday to now cover most of eastern NY and western New England. WPC removed the marginal risk for excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4) for Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) After a dry Saturday, areas of showers and thunderstorms arrive late tonight into Sunday A.M with showers and storms returning Sunday P.M. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated severe thunderstorms across much of eastern NY and western New England Sunday P.M. 2) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue Monday and Tuesday, especially near and north of I-90, with temperatures remaining slightly cooler than normal. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Broad troughing continues developing over the Upper Great Plains into the Great Lakes today while the Northeast remains on the west side of large scale ridging over the western Atlantic. While height falls creep into western NY today, eastern NY and western New England remains under the influence of weak subsidence, keeping us dry. Tonight, our upstream trough over the Great Lakes amplifies and digs into the Ohio Valley as two shortwaves phase together with the parent cyclone taking on a negative tilt. This results in strengthening upper level diffluence over the mid-Atlantic as a warm front lifts northward with a weak sfc low developing along the boundary. Meanwhile, strengthening southwest flow aloft will also allow moisture to advect into the Northeast with PWATs rising over 1.50". Chances for showers and even a slight chance for thunderstorms increases from southwest to northeast 06 - 12 UTC Sunday as the front approaches. Guidance continues to hint that the weak sfc low will aid in a more organized area of rain/embedded storms. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the latest probabilistic guidance from the HREF continues to show potential for moderate to heavy rain late tonight into Sunday morning with a 50 - 75% chance for over 0.50" of rain 09 to 15 UTC Sun and even a 25-50% chance for over 1" of rain. However, our recent dry stretch will likely limit flooding and WPC removed the marginal risk for excessive rainfall. After this initial A.M period of rain/storms, we should have a brief break before an occluded front and stronger height falls from the closed parent low over the eastern Great lakes arrive. There remain uncertainties regarding how much instability can develop. While there will be plenty of low- level moisture, morning clouds may struggle to break for sun during the small window before the occluded front arrives Sun P.M. Even still, mid-level dry air and cooler temperatures aloft wrap eastward as the parent cyclone matures, helping to steepen lapse rates with forecast soundings showing "tall- skinny" CAPE developing. Given the high humidity, even limited insolation will contribute to sufficient instability and help generate low- topped convection. While 0-6km shear is rather impressive ranging 40-50kts, 0-3km shear only ranges 20-30kts. Should weak instability keep convection low-topped, storms will not tap into the stronger deep layer shear, decreasing the severe weather potential. SPC expanded the marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated severe weather to now cover much of eastern NY and western New England given persistent forcing ahead of the parent cyclone; however, weak instability/shear are listed as reasons will severe weather may be limited. Main concerns are damaging winds from any severe weather with a linear storm mode favored as shear vectors remain parallel to the boundary. KEY MESSAGE 2... The vertically stack closed low and associated cold pool in the eastern Great Lakes slowly advances eastward Monday into Tuesday supporting slightly cooler than normal temperatures and continued moist cyclonic flow aloft. Coverage of showers and even low- topped convection increases Monday afternoon, especially near/north of I-90, as additional shortwaves rotate around the base of the closed low. Given the cool pool aloft, it likely will not take much upscale growth before lightning occurs with even small hail possible from any taller storms. As winds aloft becoming westerly, a weak lake effect signal looks to develop downstream of Lake Ontario, supporting steadier periods of rain directed into the western Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley Monday P.M into Monday night. Unsettled conditions continue into Tuesday with additional diurnally driven showers again mainly near/north of I-90 but shower coverage should be lower than Monday as the parent cyclone slowly exits into New England. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 12z Sunday...VFR conditions will remain steady throughout the morning, giving way to lowering ceilings which will fall into the MVFR category by this afternoon and evening courtesy of increasing low-level moisture. MVFR ceilings will then persist into the overnight as a complex weather system further encroaches on the region. POU could see some light rain showers by the end of the period, so input a PROB30 from 09-12z to account for that potential. Forecast soundings indicate that PSF could see a lowered ceiling into the IFR category by the end of the period, but confidence is not very high in that element of the forecast. Winds throughout the period will prevail largely out of the southeast at sustained speeds under 10 kt. Outlook... Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...24/31 AVIATION...12  845 FXUS63 KIWX 221205 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 805 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances (30-55 percent)for showers and thunderstorms today. A few strong storms are possible east of Interstate 69 this afternoon and evening. - Hazardous swimming conditions are expected on Lake MI beaches along Berrien Co, MI and La Porte County, IN this weekend. Dangerous waves and currents are expected. Monitor the beach forecast for updates. - Dry conditions return Sunday night into Wednesday afternoon. Highs will be in the 70s and low 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 607 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A cold front extending from low pressure over MI is draped across our CWA from Three Rivers, MI down into White County, IN. Showers and storms have formed along this boundary, with one stronger storm near Wabash/Whitley/Kosciusko County lines as of this writing. The front will drift eastward through the afternoon, with a second shortwave/trough moving in behind it. This will lead to additional storms in NW OH this afternoon/eve as we destabilize. Otherwise, highs will be in the 70s, low 80s with gusty northwest winds. The surface low/low aloft sinks into southern Ontario by Sun Eve/Mon Am, with our area in persistent northwest flow. There are low chances for showers and storms (20-35 percent) on Sunday before we are trapped beneath the upper level ridge. Dry conditions persist into Wednesday afternoon before another broad trough encompasses the upper Great Lakes Wed eve into next Saturday. Northwest flow of 15-20 knots with gusts up to around 25 knots on Lake MI through the next couple of days will build waves to 3 to 6 feet today into Sunday, with dangerous currents possible. Maintained the going beach hazards statement, and extended the small craft advisory. There may be a lull in the wave/wind activity later tonight before waves climb up again on Sunday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 803 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Predominantly MVFR to VFR conditions at the terminals today behind a cold front, with potential for additional showers/storms later this morning/early afternoon as a shortwave moves through. Otherwise, light west-southwest winds shift northwest with gusts up to around 22kts this afternoon. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...MCD AVIATION...MCD  893 FXUS63 KMKX 221205 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 705 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated thunderstorms possible late this afternoon in east- central and southeast Wisconsin. - Dry and pleasant conditions Sunday into the beginning of next week. Storm chances return Tuesday evening into Wednesday. && .UPDATE... Issued 705 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 There is still a window for a cluster of showers with a few thunderstorms to track southward along the lakeshore of southeast WI this afternoon, but it is shorter now, mainly between 3 and 6 pm based on the latest meso models. Basically, a potent little shortwave trough that is within a broad upper trough stationed over Ontario and Lake Superior will dive down through northern WI this afternoon. This will usher a back door cold front down Lake Michigan and the convergence along it may be enough of a trigger to generate showers at a time when mid level lapse rates are steep. With around 500 j/kg CAPE and fairly weak shear of 20 kt, this is enough for isolated thunderstorms but not expecting severe. With dry air in the low levels, a few wind gusts up to 40 mph would be possible. Cronce && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1030 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Tonight through Saturday night: Quiet weather expected the rest of the night as storms have dissipated or pushed out over the lake with no concerns with the forcing and instability having pushed out as well. Dry conditions largely expected through Saturday morning. Into Saturday afternoon a backdoor cold front in combination with some surface convergence along the lake breeze could bring some additional shower and/or storm development into the early evening. Chances remain fairly limited and only isolated showers/storms are possible but the focus will be closer to the lake and unlikely to impact any of western WI. Shear will be limited and thus we do not expect storms to become strong. Quieter weather will quickly return Saturday night as the front slides out and higher pressure begins to nudge in. Kuroski && .LONG TERM... Issued 1030 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Sunday through Friday: Sunday will feature high pressure building into the region keeping things dry through the day Tuesday. The high pressure will begin to push out Tuesday night into Wednesday thus becoming our next best chance for showers and storms as and 850mb front and upper level shortwave swing through with some WAA, in addition to the surface low and corresponding cold front. Still some uncertainty in track and timing but models generally agree on this pushing through bringing precip with likely some storms as well. In addition, deep layer shear appears to be strong in the 40-50kt range which would bring some severe risk if the timing of storms is into the afternoon/evening with good daytime heating. After Wednesday, uncertainty increases a bit though in general higher pressure seems to be pushing in and strengthening with drier conditions overall more likely, possibly even into the weekend. Kuroski && .AVIATION... Issued 705 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Diurnal cumulus clouds with bases around 5000 feet are expected across southern WI today, with the higher concentration toward Lake Michigan in the afternoon. Look for isolated showers and thunderstorms to roll down Lake Michigan this afternoon, affecting Sheboygan to Milwaukee to Kenosha between 3 and 6 PM (20Z to 23Z). Confidence is higher for Sheboygan to see a thunderstorm than the other areas. Winds will remain steady out of the northwest today through tonight, except become northerly along Lake Michigan this afternoon. Cronce && .MARINE... Issued 705 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Steady northwest winds are expected today as a low pressure trough of 29.8 inches over Lower Michigan continues to exit. Then look for gusty northerly winds to develop along a cold front that will track from north to south down Lake Michigan this evening. A few thunderstorms are possible along this front. Another cold front will reinforce the northerly winds over Lake Michigan on Sunday as low pressure around 29.6 inches tracks from Lower Michigan to Ontario and high pressure of 30.2 inches pushes in from the Upper Midwest. Variable winds are expected for Monday and Tuesday as the high crosses the Upper Great Lakes. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  163 FXUS61 KBUF 221234 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 834 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Made slight adjustments to POP's and QPF through midday today based on latest trends in observations and model guidance, including our 12Z/Sat sounding, which shows rather dry air in the surface to roughly 600 mb layer of the atmospheric column. As of 8:30 AM EDT, a cyclonic MCV was centered over northeastern Lake Erie, near Long Point, ON, and should continue to move generally NE'ward amidst SW'erly mean flow in the 925 to 500 mb layer. Mesoscale and moistening isentropic ascent associated with the vortex may generate isolated to scattered rain showers and a thunderstorm or two through midday, especially west of the longitude of Buffalo, as synoptic-scale flow at the surface and aloft transports moister air from the Corn Belt, courtesy of evapotranspiration, and that moister air combined with daytime heating allow CAPE, including elevated CAPE, to increase. The rest of the forecast remains valid. Please see discussion below for further details. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon through Sunday afternoon. 2) Cool, upper level low to bring lake effect rain Sunday afternoon through Tuesday night. Cool Sunday night through Monday night. 3) Showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday with the passage of Upper level trough axis. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Showers and scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon through Sunday afternoon. A deepening area of low pressure, advancing from Michigan this morning to just north of Lakes Erie and Ontario Sunday morning- afternoon will push a warm front across our region today, followed by a cold front late tonight through midday Sunday. Instability will increase to around 500 to 1000 J/KG of MUCAPE late this afternoon and through the evening hours which will support scattered thunderstorms. A modest wind flow through 10K feet could bring a few stronger storms with damaging wind gusts, though the overall warm, moist environment with a 10K warm cloud depth is not the greatest for large hail growth. Combined with peak heating of the day, a few stronger storms will exist across our region (marginal to slight risk level west of the Genesee Valley), before overnight convection and instability begins to wane. Any storm in this increasingly moisture rich environment could bring a locally heavy downpour. Additionally, as increasing EL heights force the convective cloud depth to grow to over 25K feet, combined with a deepening 850 hPa to lake surface temperature gradient, a few waterspouts may form under the approaching upper level low. A shortwave trough within the base of the negatively tilted upper level low early Sunday combined with the occluded front will pass across our region early Sunday. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be likely ahead of the frontal boundary Sunday...these within a typical summer humid airmass. A few stronger storms will be possible, especially along and south of the NYS Thruway along with the potential both damaging wind gusts and hail as lapse rates steepen. PWats around 1.5 inches will allow for a few drenching downpours of rain as well. Expect the rain showers to end from west to east through midday...though attention will quickly turn to a lake effect response. Key Message 2...Cool, upper level low to bring lake effect rain Sunday afternoon through Tuesday night. Cool Sunday night through Monday night. An early taste of fall Sunday night through Monday night as a cool upper level low rotates across our region. Temperatures at 850 hPa will plummet towards +7 to +8C across the eastern Great Lakes. This will generate a lake effect rain response with the cool air flowing over the very warm lakes. Broken bands of lake effect rain will become disorganized through the day Monday with daytime heating and the passage of a trough, but both Sunday night a decent plume of lake effect rain, centered just near and south of Buffalo and Watertown, and Monday night into Tuesday centered ESE of the Lakes is expected. This rain will diminish Monday night off Lake Erie, and Tuesday and Tuesday night off Lake Ontario. In addition to the rain, there will be the potential for waterspouts along lake convergent boundaries with tall EL heights combined with the cool air associated with the upper level low over the warm lakes. Overnight lows will be some 5 to 8 degrees below normal Sunday night and Monday night, while high temperatures Monday will be some 10 to 15 degrees below late August normals. Key Message 3...Showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday with the passage of Upper level trough axis. A surface trough, combined with an axis of an upper level low will pass across the eastern Great Lakes region Monday. Instability is not too impressive, generally under 300 J/KG of MUCAPE, but increasing low level lapse rates of 6.5 to 7.0 C/km will aid in the generation of more widespread shower activity through the late morning and early afternoon hours. Behind the initial cold front PWATs will not be as great, generally around an inch which will keep any heavier downpours limited, but the increasing lapse rates and lowering wet bulb zero heights could bring small hail within any stronger convective cell Monday. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... For the 12Z TAFs VFR flight conditions are found, with upstream convection over Lake Erie dwindling as cloud tops warm. These flight conditions will persist for the next 6 to 12 hours. A warm front extending eastward across the TAF region will also usher in deeper instability and moisture that will bring showers and scattered thunderstorms to the TAF region by mid afternoon. The greatest threat for storms along with localized gusty winds will be WNY. Then as activity pushes eastward through the evening and overnight waning instability will begin to limit the thunder threat. Isolated showers will likely remain through the balance of Saturday night. Outlook... Sunday through Monday...Periodic showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms with associated MVFR/IFR...with mainly VFR expected outside of any precipitation. Monday night through Tuesday night...Lake effect rain, mainly east and southeast of the Lakes with associated restrictions diminishing off Lake Erie Monday night and Tuesday and off Lake Ontario Tuesday and Tuesday night...otherwise mainly VFR. Wednesday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Behind a departing area of surface high pressure, a modest southeasterly to southerly flow will continue through the day today. A deepening area of low pressure passing just north of the Lakes will push first a warm front (today) and later a cold front (Sunday) across the lakes...with showers and a few thunderstorms along each frontal boundary. Behind the cold front Sunday, an upper level low will bring an early taste of autumn with a brisk west wind developing within a decently strong pressure gradient and moderate instability over the Lakes. While initial southerly flow Sunday may bring small craft conditions to the lakes Sunday, the southwest flow under the upper level low Sunday night through Monday night...and then westerly flow Tuesday will likely continue the choppy waters on the Lakes with SCA likely. In addition to the brisk winds, there will be the potential for waterspouts with tall EL heights combined with the cool air associated with cyclonic flow around the upper level low over the warm lakes. Initial waterspout development will be as early as tonight over Lake Erie...and later tonight over Lake Ontario. This threat will continue through at least Monday night. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jaszka/Thomas AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...Thomas  244 FXUS62 KMFL 221236 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 836 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 820 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon and into the evening. A couple of stronger storms are possible that could produce marginally severe winds. - A slightly earlier convective start and slightly lower dew points is expected to allow most areas to avoid heat advisory criteria. Peak heat index values could still reach 105-110F for short durations. && .UPDATE... Issued at 835 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Surface to mid-level high pressure ridge is located over the far southern peninsula this morning, providing a light S-SW wind flow across the region. Current forecast is on track with regards to convection initiation, with seabreezes expected to push onshore by Noon. Initial development will likely occur around Lake Okeechobee and interior Palm Beach County where GOES-derived precipitable water (PWAT) values are running close to 2 inches, then spread southward along the seabreeze boundaries through 2 PM. The east coast seabreeze will be pinned closer to the metro/coastal areas especially in Palm Beach County but even down to the far western suburbs of Broward/Miami-Dade County, whereas the Gulf seabreeze will penetrate slightly farther inland where convection will fire between Lake Okeechobee and the Gulf coast. As the afternoon progresses, the showers and thunderstorms will tend to shift east concentrate over the Everglades and far western suburbs of SE Florida during the late afternoon and early evening. The bulk of the precipitation should remain over the Everglades, but the light wind flow means that thunderstorm outflows should be able to push towards the metro and Atlantic coastal areas and help to trigger additional showers/thunderstorms near or over the metro area. As indicated in the previous discussion, thermodynamic profiles will support a few strong wind gusts, along with the usual isolated pockets of 2-4"+ rainfall amounts. Heat index values will once again be near advisory levels this afternoon, but earlier onset of convection may preclude the need for advisories as indicated in the previous discussion. We will continue to monitor this closely throughout the morning in the event that trends show heat index values increasing faster than expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 There has not been much change in the pattern evolution for this weekend. From a synoptic standpoint, the ridge in the Southwestern US continues to strengthen and allows for increased jet dynamics to strengthen the trough over the Eastern Seaboard. The base of the trough is still not expected to make it into South Florida and the overall flow pattern will remain largely on the weaker side, but this enhanced troughing pattern is expected to keep a prevailing southerly/south-southwesterly flow pattern in place through the weekend. Therefore, with deep moisture advection continuing and elevated PWATs of 1.7-2.0" or even more in some areas, diurnal heating and sea breeze circulations each day will have the necessary ingredients to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. With the primary south to south-southwest flow, this will favor interior and Southeast Florida for highest rain chances this weekend as showers and storms are expected to be the most widespread in these areas. The most robust activity will occur in the later afternoon during peak diurnal heating and once the sea breeze boundaries advance inland. Model soundings do highlight adequate SBCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg as well as inverted-V signatures and steep low level lapse rates leading to DCAPE values of 1000-1200J/kg, so there will be an outside chance for an isolated severe storm or two via gusty winds again both days this weekend. Otherwise, the primary hazards will continue to be heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flooding in poor drainage areas, and sub-severe strong wind gusts. High temperatures this weekend will remain in the low to mid 90s. The deeper moisture will also keep dew points in the mid to upper 70s for most areas each day, thus maximum heat index values are anticipated to remain elevated up to the 105-110F range. With the expectation of some increased cloud cover and an earlier initiation time for convection to develop, have opted to not issue a Heat Advisory today, which will end the streak of 13 consecutive days with at least a portion of the region being under a Heat Advisory unless a short-fused one is issued later today. HREF probabilities highlight a 10-20% or less chance for heat indices to reach 105F or higher at any point of day, which is even lower for occurring over two or more consecutive hours. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 As the trough draped across the Eastern Seaboard starts to erode early next week, the local wind regime will start to shift back to what we typically see in the summer time here in South Florida with low level flow being dominated by the Atlantic sea breeze. This will cause diurnal convection to start focusing back over both the interior and Southwest Florida rather than Southeast Florida like has been observed recently. Starting Monday, the highest rain chances (60-80%) will begin to focus across Southwest Florida and this will last through the end of the long term period. Other than the rain potential, there is also potential for another Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to impact the area early next week, but guidance highlights this SAL breaking up upon it's arrival and thus it's influence on a return to hot conditions should be less than the previous round. The SAL could lower rain chances for a day or two, but with this being a thinner layer that clears out much faster, not expecting there to be any days with limited to no rainfall across the region. High temperatures are projected to remain in the low to mid 90s each day. Overnight lows range from the low 70s across the interior and lake regions to the upper 70s and low 80s along the coastal metros. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 835 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR expected through 16z, then SHRA/TSRA will develop over the interior peninsula through 00z. The bulk of the precipitation and associated lower ceilings/vsbys should stay mainly inland of the terminals, however confidence is fairly low that the TSRA will stay away from all terminals. Therefore VCTS is included at all sites, and we will monitor for any short-fused updates. SHRA/TSRA will dissipate shortly after 00z. Seabreeze dominated wind pattern, with onshore winds 8-12 kts all terminals after 16z. && .MARINE... Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Gentle west-southwest winds are expected across the Gulf waters this weekend with southeasterly winds across the Atlantic. Seas will remain at 1-2 feet or less each day across all local waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late each day and in the late night hours over the waters, which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 94 80 93 79 / 30 20 60 10 West Kendall 94 77 92 76 / 40 20 60 20 Opa-Locka 94 79 93 79 / 30 20 60 10 Homestead 93 78 92 78 / 30 20 50 10 Fort Lauderdale 93 80 92 80 / 20 20 50 10 N Ft Lauderdale 94 80 93 79 / 30 20 50 10 Pembroke Pines 94 80 93 80 / 30 20 60 10 West Palm Beach94 78 94 78 / 30 10 50 10 Boca Raton 92 79 92 79 / 20 10 50 10 Naples 91 79 91 78 / 20 10 20 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...Molleda  335 FXUS61 KBOX 221238 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 838 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Rip Current Statement has been issued for Plymouth and Barnstable Counties for Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Misty with drizzle today ahead of heavier rain tonight into Sunday. - Drier and warmer next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Misty with drizzle today ahead of heavier rain tonight into Sunday. Low pressure has continued to bring scattered light showers and drizzle/mist across parts of the Cape and south coast tonight as it has continued trekking northeast, while more interior parts of the region have remained mostly dry. This trend should continue to start the day. Based on latest observations, the low is centered just south of Nantucket as of the time of writing this discussion. Guidance remains in agreement with the general track of this low after it remained further south of Long Island than initially forecast; it will curve up and around the Cape and Islands through the day today, moving up into the NH/ME coast into Sunday morning. Misty conditions with periods of drizzle remain the main story for today as a result of prevailing cyclonic flow. Some CAMs hinted at a brief period of showers in the late morning to afternoon hours, with some even showing them passing through the interior. Highs today will likely not get out of the low 70s for southern New England. Heavier rainfall moves through tonight, generally after midnight, as the low continues on. PWATs remain elevated, approaching 2.0" towards SE MA and the Cape and Islands. IVT remains favorable for heavier showers, though the more anomalous values should remain further offshore. With regards to rainfall totals, ensembles top out at around a 20% chance of totals meeting or exceeding 1" in 24 hours ending Sunday over the Cape and Islands. The exception remains the GEFS, which continues to be drier than the other ensembles. Ensembles have somewhat trended higher totals slightly more offshore over the last few runs while deterministic guidance has somewhat varied more from run to run. The HREF PMM has 24 hour totals getting to around 0.75"-1" over the same area, including into parts of RI and SE MA; 48 hour totals could reach 1.5". High-res guidance indicates streaks of higher totals stretching northeast across the coastal plain, but this could change depending on just how close to land the low tracks while it cuts around Cape Cod. Overcast and misty conditions with periods of drizzle remain the story for Sunday as well as the low continues north and a front starts to approach from the west. Ahead of this front, the flow turns more southerly to southwesterly. This will advect in more moisture from the south and increase dewpoints into the 70s. PWATs approaching 2.0" and higher will filer in as well. Notably, CAMs have MUCAPE values approaching 1500-1700 J/kg with limited CIN over the interior for Sunday afternoon. 0-6 km shear approaches 50 kt with effective bulk shear around 35 kt. All of these parameters combined with any possible forcing from the front could set the stage for some scattered thunderstorms, some of which could turn strong to severe over the interior. With more southerly flow as well, highs Sunday increase back into the upper 70s and low 80s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier and warmer next week. Sunday's cold front shifts offshore for Monday. Post-frontal passage, much drier air and warmer temperatures take hold with more westerly winds, clearing out clouds and dropping dewpoints through Wednesday. The base of the trough tracks directly overhead into Tuesday and heights rise behind it as it continues eastward, though a weak shortwave may track through and bring a low chance of diurnal showers. High pressure continues building into the region into the middle of next week and flow aloft becomes more zonal. Low pressure developing over the Great Lakes towards the second half of the week may play more of a role later in the week, but for the time being, no major disturbances are expected through Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12z TAF Update: Today...Moderate confidence. Primarily MVFR or low end VFR ceilings. Patchy IFR ceilings remain a possible towards SE MA/Cape and Islands. Periods of mist and drizzle for immediate east coast and Cape/Island terminals. Few -SHRA possible over the Cape/Islands. Winds generally NE to N at 5-12 kt. Tonight...Moderate confidence. Widespread IFR should overspread the region heading into tonight with areas of LIFR possible, especially for Cape/Islands. -SHRA and -DZ possible overnight. Exact timing is lower confidence. Winds NE/E at 5-10 kts. Sunday...Moderate confidence. MVFR-IFR ceilings with periods of showers during the day. Scattered TSRA possible in the afternoon hours. Winds shift more S to SW after 21Z ahead of an approaching cold front. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Conditions should deteriorate to MVFR, then remain there through the day. Periods of mist and drizzle possible throughout the day as well. Few -SHRA possible overnight with a rounds of showers Sunday morning. Low chance for an embedded thunderstorm in the late afternoon/evening. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Tuesday Night: VFR. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Sunday...High confidence. NE to N winds generally 15-20 kts and seas 3-4 ft through most of today become more light variable today into tonight as the low breaks down into Sunday morning. Winds then shift more S for Sunday at around 5-10 kt, gusting to just under 20 kt occasionally during the afternoon. Despite the lower wave heights, the prolonged northeasterly flow will cause higher swells and longer swell periods today which is why a Rip Current Statement for Plymouth and Barnstable Counties will be in effect. Eastern, ocean-facing beaches will be primarily affected, especially across the northern portion of Cape Cod; however, bay-facing beaches may also experience rip currents. Swells diminish for Sunday, and the risk for rip currents decreases with them. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Monday Night through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 6 PM EDT this evening for MAZ019- 022. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hrencecin AVIATION...Hrencecin/Mensch MARINE...Hrencecin  308 FXUS65 KBOI 221237 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 637 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Weak Pacific cold front will bring isolated thunderstorms to the area Saturday afternoon and evening. - Gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph possible from thunderstorms. - Dry and slightly cooler conditions Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Monday Night/... Issued 415 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026 A cold front will slowly move across central OR today into southwest ID this evening. Showers and thunderstorms expected ahead of the cold front, mainly across southwest ID and far eastern OR. The best dynamics for thunderstorms today will be generally be east of a line from Baker City OR to Jordan Valley OR, with enough effective bulk shear for organized thunderstorm development. Shower and thunderstorm threat continues into the late evening into early Sunday morning before drier air moves in by late Sunday morning. Slightly cooler temperatures expected on Sunday with dry conditions. Isolated thunderstorms possible along the NV border south of Twin Falls Sunday afternoon. A weak shortwave embedded in the southwest flow aloft will bring increased clouds on Monday with slightly cooler temperatures. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will generally be confined to the higher terrain of southwest ID Monday afternoon. Gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph possible with thunderstorms each day. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/... Issued 415 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026 A trough off the Pac NW coast pushes the monsoon moisture east on Tuesday with drier air, breezy conditions and slightly cooler temperatures Tuesday through Friday. Temperatures will around 2-5 degrees above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /12Z Saturday through Sunday/... Issued 632 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026 VFR. Areas of wildfire smoke. Scattered thunderstorms east of KBKE to K10U, with 30-50 kt outflows and locally heavy rain, blowing dust with vis restrictions. High density altitude from heat. Surface winds outside of storms: VRB 5-15 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. A 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms this aft and evening. Erratic outflows to 30-45 kt and BLDU possible. Surface winds: NW 5-10kt during the afternoon, SE 5-15 kt in the evening. Sunday Outlook...Generally VFR. Areas of wildfire smoke. Shower and thunderstorm activity in southwest/central Idaho diminishing early Sunday AM. Isolated storms returning near KTWF in the afternoon. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-15 kt with afternoon gusts 15-25 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Red Flag Warning from noon today to midnight MDT tonight for IDZ401>403-421-424-426. OR... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ670>672. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....KA SHORT TERM...KA LONG TERM....KA  449 FXUS65 KTFX 221241 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 641 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms today, some storms will contain strong, gusty winds, heavy downpours capable of localized flooding over burn scars, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. - A surface front will bring gusty winds and elevated fire weather conditions on Sunday, there will also be a few lingering showers and storms east of I15, some may be strong to severe. - There will be a modest cooldown early next week with some widely scattered showers and storms, mostly over southwest Montana. && .UPDATE... A small update was made this morning to reflect latest trends in showers. There is no change in thinking with respect to showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds and briefly heavy rain will be the primary concerns today. -AM && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 512 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: A subtle shortwave moving through an increasingly southwesterly flow aloft is bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning. This activity will continue to weaken as it moves northeastward, but may produce localized gusty winds, lightning, and brief downpours. Stronger forcing associated with a trough approaching from the Pacific NW still looks to send a more impactful wave of showers and thunderstorms through the forecast area later this afternoon and evening. ML CAPE looks to generally fall in the 400 to 900 J/kg range for most locations, but there are some pockets with values as high as 1500 J/kg over portions of central and southwest MT. Very warm and dry boundary layers will increase instances of strong gusty winds up to and exceeding 60 mph, especially if linear upscale growth takes place. Hail and brief downpours capable of flash flooding of normally flood prone areas will also be present with effective shear generally above 25 kts and PWATS surpassing the one inch mark in some areas. The focus of this activity will be over southwest MT and and along the Continental Divide, although at least some of it will move northeastward onto the plains during the late evening and perhaps the overnight hours. The Pacific NW trough will swing northeastward through W MT and into Canada on Sunday while its attendant surface front traverses the CWA and brings gusty westerly winds and elevated fire weather conditions. There will also be lingering instability for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, with some on the strong side, mainly for locations east of I15. Temperatures modestly cooldown Monday and Tuesday with some shower and thunderstorm activity in southwest MT. This looks to be followed by ridging aloft briefly rebuilding before a couple Pacific troughs move through the Northern Rockies during the mid to latter part of next week. These systems will bring more showers and thunderstorms ahead of them followed by gusty westerly winds in their wake. - RCG - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Scattered strong thunderstorm activity through Sunday... Higher quality forcing brings more impactful showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Strong gusty winds in excess of 60 mph and lightning will be the primary hazards, especially if the storms become linear and undergo upscale growth. This threat will be highest over southwest MT and along the Continental Divide. Some weakening is expected with this activity as it moves northeastward, though these same hazards apply to plains locations as well. In addition to the winds, there will be localized heavy downpours capable of flash flooding of burn scars and other flood prone locations, mainly in central and southwest MT where there is around a 10% chancefor excessive rainfall and localized flooding. While this activity will be monitored for the aforementioned flash flooding, I will continue to hold off sending out flood products per the more scattered nature of higher rainfall rates and progressive storm motion. The focus of this activity shifts eastward on Sunday with a few stronger storms for locations east of I15. Central/north-central locations east and southeast of the highway 87 corridor will see the strongest storm ceiling with strong, gusty winds, hail, and downpours all on the table. - RCG && .AVIATION... 22/12Z TAF Period A moist and increasingly unstable southwesterly flow aloft will bring a wave of light showers and some isolated thunder through 22/20Z, mostly impacting the southwest MT terminals with lower VFR clouds and isolated lightning. A more impactful area of showers and thunderstorms will move northeastward through southwest MT and along the Continental Divide after 22/18Z. This activity will move into North-central MT in a weakening state after 23/00Z. Strong, gusty winds, brief heavy downpours, and some instances of hail will be the primary hazards. For KGTF: Light southwesterly winds will become easterly after around 22/15Z. There is less than a 10% chance for cross winds over 15 kts outside of showers and thunderstorms. The most impactful convective activity will be between 23/00Z and 23/06Z. Hazards for these thunderstorms will be gusty outflows up to 40 KT as well as localized heavy downpours and lightning. - RCG && .FIRE WEATHER... Widely scattered showers and storms with cloud to ground lightning and little or light precipitation will continue to weaken this morning as they move northeastward. Even though this activity is of lower grade, some new fire starts can't be ruled out. More productive storms move in this afternoon and evening, but increased cloud to ground lightning activity may still ignite new fire starts. The most cornering fire weather day will be on Sunday when a surface front brings gusty westerly winds amid continued very warm and dry conditions. The timing of this front will ultimately determine how long the dry and windy conditions persist. The latest NBM probabilistic guidance continues to highlight large areas of north- central and portions of southwest Montana with over a 70% chance for wind gusts over 30 mph. Although the fuels aren't quite as dry as they were in earlier in the month, elevated fire conditions will be present and the wind may be enough to ignite any lightning caused hold over fires from Friday and Saturday's storms. In addition to the winds, there will be more widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with strong, erratic wind gusts. - RCG && .HYDROLOGY... The combination of increased monsoonal moisture aloft and lower level moisture moving in from the east today will result in a 10% chance for localized heavy thunderstorm rains producing flash flooding over and near burn scars, urban areas, and other normally flood prone locations. While this activity will be monitored for the aforementioned flash flooding, a flash flood watch will issued with this forecast package per the more scattered nature of higher rainfall rates and progressive storm motion. The moisture profile begins thin on Sunday, which will reduce the threat for excessive rainfall through early next week. - RCG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 90 61 89 53 / 30 40 20 0 CTB 85 57 81 50 / 30 20 20 0 HLN 90 57 87 52 / 30 60 30 0 BZN 87 53 86 50 / 50 40 40 10 WYS 81 45 78 41 / 50 40 30 10 DLN 86 52 85 48 / 40 60 10 0 HVR 93 61 93 55 / 20 10 40 20 LWT 88 59 89 52 / 20 30 40 20 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  774 FXUS66 KLOX 221248 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 548 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS...22/542 AM. Minimal changes expected through the weekend with above normal temperatures. Patchy night and morning low clouds and fog will be confined to coastal areas, mostly north of Point Conception. Additional warming is possible during the middle of next week as high pressure builds in from the southeast. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...22/344 AM. Few changes are expected through the weekend, with warm conditions persisting. The combination of hot daytime temperatures, warm overnight lows and some monsoonal moisture at mid to upper levels will continue to feel uncomfortably warm. Breezy winds are expected at times, with northerly Sundowner winds along the Santa Barbara Southwest coast and foothills, and gusty onshore winds over interior sections. Not much change in the upper level pattern for Today, with 500 mb heights peaking around 593 to 594 dam. However, will see these heights fall a few dam for Sunday and Monday. Expecting fairly similar highs as yesterday for today, with limited marine layer clouds and similar strength in onshore flow. While the hottest areas are not quite widespread enough to warrant a Heat Advisory, some interior valley and mountain locations (Woodland Hills, for example) will reach around 10 degrees above normal. Caution is still advised for those working or recreating outdoors during the daytime. Will likely see the typical afternoon to evening breezy onshore (Southwest) winds with gusts around 20 to 30 mph over the far interior today, including Antelope Valley. These winds should trend weaker over the next few days. Northerly winds will again develop during the evening hours for the Santa Barbara southwest coast with sub-advisory level winds expected through Sunday evening, possibly reaching advisory levels Monday evening. As for the monsoonal moisture flowing over the area from the southeast, current high resolution guidance does not suggest any significant shower activity over the area for the next dew days. However, cannot rule out a stray shower or two in favorable interior locations. .LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...22/533 AM. High pressure is expected to build back into California, with warming Tuesday while at the same time pressure gradients from the north and east weaken. With high temperatures already on the verge of advisories and warnings through early next week, the next burst of heat Tuesday and beyond has at least a 40-60% chance pushing that over the edge to at least heat advisory levels and possibly into warning level, particularly inland areas. Ensemble guidance is trending towards at least 3 days of hot conditions, with some potential for additional mid-level moisture Tuesday. How widespread the heat hazards are will be largely be determined by the pressure gradients. If the gradients trend towards the 75th percentile or higher, which roughly would be around -3mb LAX- DAG and -4mb LAX- BFL, temperatures would on the higher side with numerous excessive heat warnings likely. If gradients have less of an offshore component per the latest GFS then temperatures will still be hot but at least a few degrees cooler. The latter scenario being the most likely outcome. Still not seeing any big subtropical push next week, though there is minor peak in PW's on Tuesday and early Wednesday at around 1.2". However, warm ocean temperatures will likely continue to limit cooling overnight. && .AVIATION...22/1234Z. At 0341Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 700 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 2000 feet with a temperature of 30 C. High confidence in 12Z TAFs with VFR for sites: KPRB, KSBA, KVNY, KBUR, KPMD, KWJF. Low to moderate confidence in the coastal TAFs. Most likely, sites that have not seen cigs yet will remain VFR for the rest of the morning, but cannot rule out brief cigs at KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, and KLAX. KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 12Z TAF. There is a 20% chance of IFR conds between 13Z to 16Z. If CIGs occur, the timing could be off by 2 hours. No significant east wind component is expected. KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF. && .MARINE...22/357 AM. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions likely continuing over the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island through tonight, lowering to moderate risk for Sunday and Monday. There is a moderate risk for the nearshore Central Coast waters each afternoon and evening through tonight, lowering for Sunday and Monday. Localized SCA level wind gusts are also possible for portions of the Santa Barbara Channel this afternoon and evening, especially near the Channel Islands. Elsewhere, the risk for SCA is low, with seasonal winds likely. Chances for SCA conditions will likely increase again including some nearshore waters by Wednesday. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon today to 2 AM PDT Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT Sunday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Monday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Phillips/Ciliberti AVIATION...Phillips MARINE...LP/RK SYNOPSIS...LP/Ciliberti weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox