298 FXUS64 KMOB 221301 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 801 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 800 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Very hot conditions continue today with peak heat indices in the 108 to 112 range. - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon will continue to be capable of producing brief intense rainfall, excessive lightning, and strong to damaging wind gusts. && .UPDATE... Issued at 800 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The current forecast is on track and no updates are needed. /13 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Hot and generally drier conditions are expected through the weekend. Lower rain chances are expected thanks to dry air aloft filtering into the region from the north as an upper trough amplifies over the Northeast. Boundary layer mixing each afternoon will help lower surface dew points enough to keep heat indices below advisory criteria despite high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s. However, a few localized heat index values of 108-110 cannot be ruled out near the coast where less mixing occurs with the sea breeze. Sunday will be the hotter of the two days for most areas. Drier thermodynamic profiles will suppress convective development this weekend, with PWATs falling to around 1.5 inches or lower. However, instability will remain quite high, so any sufficient convergence along the sea breeze or confluence bands could still produce an isolated storm or two each afternoon. With the dry air mass in place aloft, DCAPE values will be very high (around 1500 J/kg), so any storm that manages to initiate would carry the potential for strong microburst winds. That said, PoPs remain capped at around 10-20%. It may also be worth noting, several CAMs suggest a decaying MCS dropping southeastward could encroach on our northwestern counties this evening, but confidence is too low at this time to warrant more than 20% PoPs. The northwest flow regime will become increasingly active next week as moisture returns by Monday, with PWATs approaching 2 inches, then gradually increasing through Thursday as ensemble mean PWATs reach around 2.2 inches. Multiple shortwave impulses rounding the eastern periphery of the strong mid-level ridge centered over the Southern Plains and Desert Southwest will track southeastward toward the northern Gulf Coast. While the precise timing and location of individual impulses and associated convection remains uncertain, this general pattern should bring periodic rounds of unsettled weather to the region through the week. Deterministic guidance is fairly consistent in showing the first prominent shortwave approaching from the northwest during the day on Monday, introducing increased cloud cover and higher rain chances. The next main shortwave looks to impact the region in the Wednesday- Thursday timeframe, potentially bringing a more substantial threat for widespread showers and storms given the deeper moisture in place. Trends will be monitored for any flash flood or severe potential. Even in the absence of these disturbances, ample moisture and instability will favor scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms, primarily focused along the sea breeze and outflow boundary interactions. Increased cloud cover and rainfall should keep temperatures closer to average next week. Highs are forecast generally in the low to mid 90s with heat indices peaking in the 100-107 range. At the beaches, a Low risk of rip currents continues through early next week. JGC/98 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 800 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period outside of isolated showers and thunderstorms that will develop this afternoon, mainly along the coast. Brief periods of IFR/MVFR conditions and gusty winds will be possible in and around showers and thunderstorms. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 95 74 97 74 / 10 0 20 10 Pensacola 93 77 95 78 / 20 10 20 10 Destin 90 79 94 80 / 20 0 20 10 Evergreen 97 71 98 71 / 10 0 10 0 Waynesboro 98 73 99 72 / 0 20 10 10 Camden 96 72 96 71 / 0 10 10 10 Crestview 95 72 98 72 / 20 0 20 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  585 FXUS63 KIND 221308 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 908 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated convection possible again late today - Cooler and less humid weather expected Sunday through Tuesday with highs mainly in the 70s to low 80s. - Areas of late night/early morning fog will occur Saturday and Sunday nights. - Dry weather expected Monday and Tuesday with increasing chances for rain and storms mid-late next week. && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 907 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Surface analysis early this morning shows broad low pressure in place over MI. A weak trough within this flow stretched across Central Indiana, and westerly flow was developing in the wake of the trough within the Wabash valley. Isolated showers ahead of the trough over eastern Central Indian continued to weaken and depart to the east. Aloft, strong ridging was in place over the Rockies, resulting in lee side subsidence spilling across the northern plains and into the Ohio Valley on NW flow. Dew points across Central Indiana were mainly in the mid 60s and skies were clear in the wake of the trough as subsidence was seen building across western Indiana. This afternoon, subsidence, as found across Illinois and western Indiana, will continue to build across our area. Forecast soundings show strong drying within the mid and upper levels. However as convective temps in the upper 70s are reached, some SCT CU will be possible. Weak capping does appear present near 850mb with an inversion. HRRR hints an isolated TSRA could be possible should the cap be breached. Confidence is low for this. Thus expect most locations will remain mostly sunny and cooler today, with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. && .DISCUSSION (Today through Friday)... Issued at 302 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Today through Sunday... Expect multiple embedded waves within upper troughing to move through the region this weekend while northwest flow persists. Current KIND radar imagery depicts scatters showers and a few storms pushing into central Indiana early this morning. This convection is associated with an MCS which has been gradually weakening through the overnight as it is outpacing the more unstable environment back across IL. Additional showers and a few storms are possible through the morning with the disturbance pushing through, but weak forcing will limit coverage. Look for winds to turn northwesterly by mid-morning once a cold front passes. Drier air filtering in should promote mostly dry conditions later today into tonight. However, a subtle backdoor front and marginal low-level moisture could support a few showers or a stray storm, mainly across far northwestern counties. Light winds combined with mostly clear skies Saturday night supports the potential for patchy fog. Any fog that develops will quickly mix out Sunday morning. Another subtle impulse could promote a few light showers over far NE counties Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, look for pleasant weather with cooler weather from persistent northwest flow. Highs on Saturday are expected to range from the upper 70s to low 80s whiles highs on Sunday generally range from the mid 70s to low 80s. Sunday night through Tuesday... Broad area of surface high pressure will push SE into the Ohio Valley through the period, providing for much drier conditions, with dewpts falling into the 50s. As a result most areas will see low temperatures in the 50s Sunday night. Light winds and mostly clear skies will lead to another night with areas of fog Sunday night. A weak system in the NW flow aloft is expected to move across the MO/mid-MS valleys Monday into Tuesday. At present the only expected effect from this system will be increasing mid-high clouds.This should limit fog chances Monday night and keep high temperatures in the 70s most areas Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday through Friday... Another upper wave/surface cold front will move through during the period. Confidence in timing is very low considering the system is currently off the west coast, so for now will only have some low PoPs. Seasonable temperatures are expected with increasing humidity with increasing SW flow in the low levels. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 653 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Impacts: - A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out today - Low chance for brief fog at outlying sites through 12Z today, fog possible at the outlying sites late tonight - NW winds sporadically gusting up to 18-22 kt today Discussion: Predominately VFR conditions are expected today, but a stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out today. Brief fog may develop at the outlying sites through 12Z, additional fog is possible at the outlying sites late tonight. Brief MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled out between 12-16Z today near LAF/IND. Winds will increase and veer slightly to 290-320 degrees later this morning. Winds may sporadically gust up to 18-22 kt through late afternoon. Morning cloud cover could limit diurnal mixing and peak gusts slightly. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Puma AVIATION...Melo DISCUSSION...Crosbie/Melo  937 FXAK68 PAFC 221311 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 511 AM AKDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday)... The weakening low pressure system that brought us the showery and cool conditions for the past couple of days is finally making an exit into the northern Panhandle and southern Yukon this morning. Conditions by and large have dried out in the wake of this low overnight as a shortwave ridge moves overhead, but this break in the wet conditions will be cut short. A new plume of moisture and higher clouds is beginning to encroach on the region from the west ahead of a digging shortwave trough currently moving over Southwest. Radar returns are already starting to creep northeast up the Cook Inlet, while Kodiak Island is already getting into steadier rainfall with the new system arriving. Steady rain will continue to expand north and east towards the Mat-Su Valleys and across the Kenai Peninsula as the day progresses, but most of the Copper Basin will stay dry today. There are very few changes to the forecast expectations to discuss through the end of the weekend and into the start of next week. As the upper level trough skirts southeast towards the Gulf, it will close off in the upper levels while a new low forms underneath it across the western Gulf by this afternoon and evening. Weak southerly gap winds that could affect parts of the Copper River Valley, Turnagain ARm and Knik Valley today will shut off abruptly as the new low develops and begins to reverse the south-north pressure gradient currently in place out ahead of this incoming system. Gusty north to northwest winds up to Small Craft range will develop northwest of the low center across the western Gulf and close to Kodiak Island late tonight into Sunday morning, with weaker offshore gap winds also briefly picking up through Resurrection Bay and Passage Canal for Sunday morning. As the low continues to pull away from Southcentral into the southeastern Gulf, expect things to dry out and even clear up rather quickly between Sunday morning and Sunday evening. Some patchy fog could still form near the Cook Inlet and Anchorage vicinity during the morning hours, but expect any fog to mix out by the afternoon. Temperatures will be noticeably warmer on Sunday afternoon as well, reaching the low to mid 60s across lower elevations as a ridge of high pressure builds to the west and expands into Southcentral through early Monday. Monday also is shaping up to be a fairly warm and pleasant day, but expect some increasing high clouds coming in from the west by the late afternoon and evening ahead of a large low pressure system moving into Western Alaska. The stretch of pleasant weather doesn't look likely to last much later into the week, so take advantage of it while you can! -AS && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday)... Radar and satellite imagery this morning show the heaviest rainfall associated with the front that brought steady rain overnight across Southwest Alaska progressing east into Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Valley. Behind the front, rain has tapered to showers across the Kuskokwim Delta as gusty northwesterly winds build up through this morning over Nunivak Island, The Kuskokwim Delta, and the eastern Bering. Rain will dissipate from west to east across interior Southwest through tonight as the upper level trough digs south across western Alaska, eventually forming a closed upper low in the western Gulf by Sunday morning. High pressure building in across the Bering behind this system throughout today will help to enhance northwesterly gap winds through favored gaps and passes on the Pacific side of the northern Alaska Peninsula this afternoon through tonight. The patterns continues to remain progressive as attention then shifts farther upstream in the western Bering. By tonight through Sunday morning, the next round of shortwaves moving east out of Kamchatka and lifting out of the North Pacific interact and phase together, allowing for a surface low to become better organized and strengthen as it tracks northeastward across the Bering for Sunday. As the system develops today, a warm and unstable airmass brings a small chance (10 to 20%) for a few lightning strikes to accompany showers moving over the western Aleutians through early this afternoon. As the surface low and associated upper-level circulation become better organized and strengthens on Sunday across the western Bering, Southwest Alaska will get a short break in the weather as the ridge pushes east. Meanwhile, south to southwesterly small- craft winds pick up across much of the Bering and Aleutians with a small swath of gale-force winds expected across the northern Bering and St. Matthew Island. Light to moderate rainfall pushing east across the Bering reaches the Pribilof Islands Sunday morning before reaching the Southwest coast by Sunday evening. Steady rain continues across all of Southwest Alaska through Monday as a stream of moisture from the North Pacific and a weak shortwave rounding the base of the trough reinforces the front. Gusty onshore winds begin to relax Monday morning as the low pull farther away to the north. The pattern continues to look active and progressive through early next week as additional systems are expected to move into the western Bering. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)... The pattern appears to remain active through the long-term period over much of Southern Alaska. A relatively strong low pressure system over the northern Bering Sea will exit to the northeast into the Western Alaska mainland, but push a front through Southwest and potentially Southcentral Alaska early next week. By Tuesday, largely zonal flow establishes over much of the Bering Sea, allowing for relatively less impactful conditions in the area. By Wednesday morning, model solutions continue to diverge, and while both ECMWF and GFS advertise a low entering the southwestern Bering Sea, the EC shows a stronger low moving in, bringing stronger winds and precipitation core dragged in from the northern Pacific. The GFS solution is much more muted, with a weak low pressure system, loose pressure gradients, favoring weaker winds and lighter precipitation across the Western Aleutians. GFS and EC however are more progressive, bringing the low into the northwestern Bering by Thursday morning, with the Canadian solution lagging the low still in the southwest Bering, over the Western Aleutians. By Friday, agreement improves between model solutions, with fair agreement that the low moves into the eastern Bering, with all solutions also bringing the low's depth more in- line, and the low center over the Kuskokwim Delta/Mekoryuk Island. -CL && .AVIATION... PANC...Steady light rain is expected to move into the terminal from the southwest later this morning, but ceiling are expected to remain predominantly VFR even as rain begins. Still, expect a lowering trend in ceilings as the day progresses, possibly reaching MVFR at times during the afternoon and evening. There is still some uncertainty regarding the wind forecast, with a Turnagain Arm wind still expected to briefly reach the terminal sometime later this morning into the mid afternoon. Any southeast winds that do make it into the terminal are not expected to be particularly strong, with only a few gusts to 20 kts or so anticipated. Winds will become light and northerly later this afternoon into tonight. && $$  418 FXAK69 PAFG 221328 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 528 AM AKDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... - Temperatures are expected cool slightly for majority of the Interior Saturday into the 60s with the Yukon Flats being the warmest in the lower 70s. Temperatures will likely bottom out Sunday in the upper 50s to mid 60s. - A frontal system will bring as much as 0.2 to 0.5" of rain from Bettles to Minchumina Saturday, with lesser amounts to the east. Another low entering the southwest Yukon increases chances of wetting rains in the Upper Tanana Valley Saturday into Sunday. - Very isolated thunderstorms expected in the Eastern Interior Saturday afternoon and evening. West Coast and Western Interior... - As a cold front moves inland on Saturday, gusty northerly winds are likely. Conditions will improve from the west Saturday afternoon/evening into Sunday. - Rain totals up to 0.15" are expected for the West Coast and Western Interior with the foothills of the Brooks Range having the possibility to receive up to 0.3" through Saturday afternoon. - Temperatures cool slightly following the front. Highs in the 50s to near 60 expected Saturday through the weekend persisting into early next week. - Another storm approaches the West Coast Sunday and is expected to bring yet another round of gusty winds, moderate to heavy rainfall, and locally higher tides. High Surf Advisories have been issued for the Norton Sound and YK-Delta. North Slope and Brooks Range... - A brief period of wintry mix is possible near Prudhoe Bay and Kaktovik overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. However chances of accumulation remain low at this time. - A front sweeps across North Slope Saturday, bringing the potential for traces of snow, with 1-2 inches possible in the North Central Brooks Range. - Expect highs in the 30s to 40s after the front passes through,which will be west of Umiat Saturday and from Umiat east Sunday. Highs are expected to rise above normal west of Umiat on Sunday and then widespread over the North Slope on Monday into the 50s and 60s. && .SYNOPSIS... Multiple low pressure systems are expected to impact Northern Alaska this weekend and next week, bringing gusty winds, moderate to heavy rainfall, and cooler temperatures. As the first round of low pressure continues to move through our area today, rainfall is expected along the West Coast and Western Interior. As we move into Sunday and Monday, another low pressure system will approach the West Coast, bringing more precipitation, gusty winds, and high water along the coastline. The final low pressure system will approach Thursday to Friday, bringing another round of precipitation to the Seward Peninsula and portions of the Brooks Range to close out our week. There are chances for the rounds of precipitation reaching farther inland, but accumulations should be lighter. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The overall pattern hasn't changed much and is on track. On Friday, rainfall amounts in the Western Interior were 0.50" to 1.00" with around a Trace to 0.25" in most of the Western Interior. The low that brought all of this rain is beginning to drop south in to the Gulf of Alaska and as it does so, the majority of the rain will be in the Western Interior and gradually deteriorate this afternoon through tonight. In the Central and Eastern Interior, there were showers and isolated thunderstorms caused by a fairly weak low in the northeastern Gulf of Alaska. This will get pushed into The Yukon by the incoming low and bring showers to the Interior once again today. The vast majority of them will be stationed from the White Mtns to Eagle.A weak front from the exiting low will also try and muster up rain showers which drop south into the Upper Tanana on Sunday. Drying weather is expected for Monday. Up north on the Slope, there's been periods of rain and showers which are moving east today. This is due to some southwesterly flow and weak vorticity moving over the Brooks Range. The rain will move east today with a chance to mix with or change to snow in the Brooks Range and eastern North Slope tonight into tomorrow. There is also a non-zero chance for some sleet or freezing rain near Kaktovik tonight as well. Snow accumulations look to be around a couple of inches tonight into tomorrow morning, but given how warm it has been and the rain beforehand, it will take time for it to stick. Any accumulations will melt during the day on Sunday. No ice accretion is expected. Otherwise, the main story moving forward will be the Bering Sea continuing to stay active heading into next week. From Sunday night into Monday, a low will move into the Gulf of Anadyr bringing gusty south/southwest winds and another round of rain to the West Coast. Fortunately, there is a limited amount of Arctic air available for this storm to tap into, so it will only strengthen to around a 985mb low which is fairly weak for the Bering Sea's standards. Regardless, there will be some minor coastal impacts from this which will be elaborated on in the Coastal Hazard Potential section. This low will bring upwards of 1.00" of additional rain to the West Coast and Western Brooks Range, and 0.50" to the Western Interior. There is some uncertainty on whether the rain reaches the Central Interior. But it is looking likely that rain will move into Fairbanks and the surrounding area on Tuesday with a potential for 0.25" of rain. Depending on the front, rain should try to get into the Eastern Interior on Wednesday as well. On the North Slope, the Bering low will move into the Chukchi Sea Monday night bringing areas of rain and gusty winds through Tuesday. Rainfall amounts look to be around 0.10" to 0.25". && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... On Wednesday, a remnant front from the previous Bering Sea low will be weakening and moving through the Interior and North Slope. Rain is possible in the Interior but portions of the Eastern Interior will likely get downsloped, especially the Upper Tanana Valley. The North Slope looks to get a cold front as the low moves east, this would bring colder temperatures and showers. Our eyes then turn to the Bering Once again around Thursday. Another low will try to form and bring rain/wind and potential coastal impacts to portions of the West Coast. There is high uncertainty with this next low due and the storm track will be dependent on the placement of the Pacific high and an Arctic low. If the low in the Bering is a bit slower and the Arctic low is deeper/faster, there can be a phasing situation where the low then strengthens and moves into the Northern Bering. This would be slightly more concerning but that is an outlier situation that is not anticipated right now. Current thoughts lean towards a low in the Southern Bering which then moves into the Gulf by Friday. Nonetheless, rain does look possible in Western Alaska while the remainder of Northern Alaska remains pretty mundane with isolated to scattered showers by the end of next week. Coastal Hazard Potential... A low moving into the Gulf of Anadyr on Monday will bring persistent south/southwest wind to the West Coast Sunday night through Tuesday. Water levels are expected to rise upwards of 3 feet in the Yukon Delta, 4 to 6 feet in Eastern Norton Sound and 1 to 3 feet from Nome to Wales with the Monday and Tuesday high tides. High Surf Advisories have been issued for the Yukon Delta and Eastern Norton Sound. As the low movesinto the Chukchi Sea on Monday, westerly winds are expected along the Chukchi Sea Coast. Water levels look to rise around 1 to 3 feet from Point Hope to Utqiagvik during the the Monday and Tuesday high tides. This is at the point where it becomes marginally impactful and there can be come beach erosion. Special weather statements have been issued for the locations which are on the cusp of seeing coastal impacts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Across the Interior, high temperatures will be warmest today with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Tomorrow, there will be a drop into the 50s and 60s but they do rebound back into the mid/upper 60s from Fairbanks east on Monday. Min RHs will be above 50% for most of the Interior today but in the mid 30s in the Upper Tanana Valley. Min RHs rise across the board tomorrow, including the Upper Tanana where they may be around 60%. Min RHs drop once again on Monday with most spots from Fairbanks east around 40 to 50%. Winds will be mainly light in the Interior, but gusts up to 40 mph are possible in the AK Range Passes today. A few gusts from the southwest may be upwards of 20 mph near Tok this afternoon. Winds will be a bit stronger in the Upper Tanana tomorrow, and they shift northwesterly. Sustained winds look to be around 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. It is worth noting the the 75th percentile of the NBM has wind gusts up to ~30 mph and the 90th percentile is approaching 35 mph near Tok. So, even with increasing RHs on Sunday, it will come with gusty winds. One other tidbit to note is precipitation, rain is looking more and more likely to move into the Upper Tanana Saturday night into Sunday. There are varying intensities of a retrograding front on each piece of guidance so rainfall amounts are a bit uncertain. However, a low in The Yukon with a retrograding front is a good signal for precipitation in the Upper Tanana. Currently, there is about a 25% chance for wetting rains tonight into tomorrow in Tok. && .HYDROLOGY... Several rounds of wet storm systems are expected to bring considerable rainfall to the West Coast, Western Interior, and parts of the Central Interior through the end of next week. Despite this rain, river levels remain low and are not expected to rise to the point of becoming hazardous throughout the weekend. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 4 PM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ824. High Surf Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ825. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ801- 807-810. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ802- 805-806-850-853-856. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ803. Gale Warning until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ806. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ808- 809-855. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ852- 854. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Donner SYNOPSIS...Donner SHORT TERM...Bianco LONG TERM...Bianco COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...Bianco FIRE WEATHER...Bianco HYDROLOGY...Stokes  398 FXHW60 PHFO 221357 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 357 AM HST Sat Aug 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Trade winds will continue to strengthen today as Tropical Storm Moke moves from east to west, south of the islands. This system will deliver periods of rainfall to all islands from late tonight through Monday, but heaviest along windward and southeast slopes of the Big Island. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Big Island. Typical drier trade wind weather will return by mid next week. && .DISCUSSION... Latest IR satellite imagery loop continues to show deep convection several hundred miles southeast of the Big Island, in association with Tropical Storm Moke. The center of Tropical Storm Moke was located roughly 500 miles southeast of Hilo and moving at around 12 mph to the west northwest. Closer to home, mainly clear skies prevail with few low clouds pushing against the island's windward slopes. The 06Z Hilo sounding shows a fairly shallow subsidence inversion height near 5000 feet with relatively dry air both above and below the inversion. Thus, it comes as no surprise that the radar has been quiet with only isolated light showers dotted over the region. Trade winds have begun to slowly ramp up statewide the last several hours into a more moderate range, generally 10 to 20 mph, with gusts to around 30 mph at wind prone sites. Local pressure gradients will further tighten today as Hawaii becomes sandwiched between the low pressure of Tropical Storm Moke (as it moves west, south of the islands) and a 1026 mb surface high far to the northeast of the region. Winds across select zones of Maui County and the Big Island, mainly the typical tradewind prone zones in the lee of mountains or passes, should reach advisory level by this afternoon. A Wind Advisory has been issued for these areas and has a starting time of noon. Hi-resolution model guidance indicates nearing High Wind Warning levels in the lee of the Kohala mountains on Big Island later this evening into tonight. If this comes to fruition, and winds increase above guidance, the advisory for this zone would need to be upgraded. Leeward Ko'olau mountains and Wai'anae mountain zones on Oahu may be added to the advisory on a later shift as winds near criteria this evening into tonight. Trade winds remain strong through Sunday, then begin to dwindle late Sunday into Monday morning. By this evening, a slug of deeper low level moisture from Tropical Storm Moke begins to approach the Big Island from the east. Showers will become numerous along windward and southeastern sections of the Big Island late tonight through Monday with periods of embedded heavy rain. Both the GFS and ECMWF share similar solutions and the NHC track forecast for Moke has changed very little during the past several advisories. For this reason, forecast rain amounts were held steady overnight with no major changes. A Flood Watch for the Big Island will go into effect tonight and continue through Monday afternoon. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, locally up to 15 inches are possible over the windward and southeast slopes of the Big Island. It will not take a significant amount of rain to cause flash flooding due to saturated grounds from recent heavy rain. For the remaining islands, showers will also become more numerous as deeper low level moisture increases from Tropical Storm Moke. However, totals should be much less with only up to a few inches of rainfall accumulation expected. Isolated amounts up to 4 inches are possible over the eastern portion of Maui as moist easterly flow moves up the slope of Haleakala. Early next week, as Tropical Storm Moke pushes further west, away from the islands, both the GFS and ECMWF indicate some residual moisture and instability left behind in its wake. This could spell more weather weather for the area, especially over the higher terrain of Maui and the Big Island. Details will be worked out in the coming days. By Wednesday, a surface high northeast will once again dominate and bring a return of more typical trade wind weather. && .AVIATION... Trade winds will fill back in over the islands as Tropical Storm Moke approaches and passes south of the Big Island this weekend, increasing the pressure gradient across the state. Trades will gradually strengthening from east to west, becoming strong by this afternoon and continuing to build on Sunday. AIRMET Tango will likely be needed for low level turbulence downwind of island terrain. While occasional pockets of MVFR conditions will be possible within passing showers along windward and mauka locations today, VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Tonight into Sunday, increasing moisture over the eastern end of the state as Tropical Storm Moke passes by to our south will result in increasing chances for heavy rainfall, along with low visibilities and ceilings, across the Big Island. This will bring more widespread MVFR and IFR conditions. && .MARINE... Trade winds will begin to strengthen across the coastal waters in response to Tropical Storm Moke passing south of the islands this weekend. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been issued through this afternoon for the eastern two thirds of the coastal waters. The SCA has been expanded to include all nearshore waters from tonight through Sunday afternoon. Stronger winds and Moke generated wind wave swell may push significant seas to near 10 feet within Big Island's eastern waters this weekend. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the offshore waters as the passage of Tropical Storm Moke introduces tropical storm force conditions to these waters from tonight through Sunday. East-facing shore surf will gradually build this weekend in response to strengthening trades. Surf along east and south-facing shores will be impacted by a short period east southeast swell generated by Tropical Storm Moke as well as northeast wind wave swell as a result of the stronger trades. As Moke passes by to the south this weekend, a mounting southeast swell will veer and become south to southwest into Monday. This small, short period captured easterly fetch from TS Moke may push Big Island east surf to advisory levels tonight into Sunday. Moke's wind field is forecast to be relatively small and, with potential minor deviations in forecast track, confidence for Big Island east-facing shore advisory surf remains low. Surf along most south-facing shores will be slightly below summer norms but still remain somewhat elevated due to a lingering small, long period south southwest swell through the weekend. Another reinforcing small south swell is expected over the weekend which will hold these near summertime heights. A series of south swells next week on top of this resident swell may potentially increase south surf to near advisory levels. Small, medium to long period west to north swell originating from Hurricane Lala will arrive along north and west-facing coasts this weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Trade winds continue to increase today and the inversion, currently around 5-6 kft, will steadily weaken and eventually erode altogether as deep moisture associated with TS Moke moves into the area tonight into Sunday. Heavy rain is expected over windward and SE facing slopes of the Big Island on Sunday. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM HST Sunday for Lanai Mauka- Kahoolawe-Maui Leeward West-Kohala-Big Island Interior-Molokai Southeast-Molokai North-Molokai West-Molokai Leeward South-Lanai Windward-Lanai Leeward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Windward Haleakala-South Haleakala-Big Island South- Big Island Southeast-Big Island North. Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday afternoon for Big Island- Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM HST Sunday for Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel- Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thomas AVIATION...Vaughan MARINE...Blood FIRE WEATHER...Thomas