720 FXUS61 KLWX 221403 AAA AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1003 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Key Message and discussion #1 were updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Showers and thunderstorms today with the risk of some severe weather west of the Blue Ridge Mountains. - 2) Dry conditions anticipated Sunday through early next week. - 3) Warmer and more humid conditions return mid-week, with thunderstorm chances returning by Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and thunderstorms today with the risk of some severe weather west of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Watching closely showers over Charles and southern Prince Georges Counties where radar estimates indicate up to 2 inches of rain. Luckily, it is falling in places where FFG is higher than compared to St. Mary's County. Once this cell moves out, we should have a lull in precip until mid-afternoon. During the late morning and early afternoon hours there could be a lull, but there remains a chance for pop-up showers and storms pretty much anywhere during this period. By evening, another round of showers and thunderstorms will approach the Appalachian Mountains and may make to areas east of the Blue Ridge Mountains overnight into early Sunday. Severe threat is low with these, as they will be running into stable surface air. However, they could bring some heavy rainfall and thunder. Some fog may then develop in the valleys and VA Piedmont, but it will have to do so prior to the arrival of the front. By Sunday morning the cold front will be crossing the area with dry air advection ensuing in strengthening NW winds. However, there could still be enough moisture and lift to spark a few showers, but overall drying conditions are expected throughout the day. KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry conditions anticipated Sunday through early next week. Dewpoints drop sharply in the wake of the cold front Monday as dry air moves into the region from the Midwest. Surface high pressure will begin to build over the Appalachians and track east over the next couple of days, with conditions feeling briefly fall-like as temperatures range slightly below average for August. Overnight lows range largely in the 50s throughout the region by Tuesday, and sub-60F dewpoints could persist until midweek. KEY MESSAGE 3...Warmer and more humid conditions return mid- week, with thunderstorm chances returning by Thursday. As the week continues, a broad upper-level trough will begin to form over the Great Lakes and track towards the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday. As the associated surface low approaches the region, moist air from the south will flow into the area, bringing back an increase in humidity & temperatures back to late-August normals. As this low tracks through, expect shower & thunderstorm chances to increase as the associated cold front tracks offshore by the end of the week. Medium-range severe indices still maintain a low-end non-zero chance for stronger convection as this front moves through. Temperatures rise back into the upper 80s by Thursday. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low clouds will be an issue, which makes restrictions likely. Though, if the showers and up being less intense, it is possible that conditions remain low-end MVFR rather than dropping to IFR. Latest TAFs reflect some uncertainty there, with areas further east a bit more likely than those to the west. Another low pressure system over the Great Lakes region will push a cold front through the region later tonight. This will bring another line of shower and storms along with it, persisting through the early overnight hours. This could bring another period of restrictions. In the wake of the rain, fog is expected to develop at CHO and probably MRB as well Sunday morning. It is possible it could creep into IAD as well. Predominantly VFR conditions are anticipated across terminals Sunday through Wednesday. Winds on Sunday through Tuesday remain out of the WNW to NW, gusting up to 20 knots during the afternoon hours (except CHO which will be 5 to 8 knots lower). Beginning Wednesday afternoon, winds shift out of the south, but should be a bit weaker. Additionally, a few showers and thunderstorms become possible ahead of an approaching cold front that could bring temporarily reduced conditions into the evening and perhaps overnight hours. && .MARINE... Easterly winds expected today around 5 to 10 knots with gusts up to 15 knots as low pressure slides by to our southeast. SCA conditions are not expected, however any heavier showers or storms could bring down gusts around 20 to 25 knots at times throughout the day. These would likely come in short bursts, and should be few and far between. Another line of showers and storms moves in late tonight, but again should not bring any substantial wind gusts as we will be stable. Winds turn out of the WNW Sunday through Tuesday, and should remain sub-SCA throughout that period. A few gusts near 18 knots are possible, especially further north, but not seeing a prolonged period enough to warrant an SCA at this time. Winds shift southerly by Wednesday, with winds gusting above SCA thresholds later that evening in a classic southerly channeling event ahead of an approaching cold front. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LFR/CJL/SRT AVIATION...LFR/CJL/SRT MARINE...LFR/CJL/SRT  776 FXUS63 KDTX 221405 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1005 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this morning become more widespread this afternoon. There is a threat for localized urban flooding in the I-96 and M-59 corridors. - There is a Marginal/Isolated risk of strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. - Breezy and cooler conditions arrive Sunday with scattered showers through Sunday night. - A stray shower in the morning, otherwise dry Monday with slightly below normal temperatures. && .UPDATE... Showers and storms this morning are occurring along and ahead of an elongated axis of PV noted in water vapor imagery, passing overhead just ahead of the main area of height falls associated with the larger scale trough digging across Wisconsin into Lake Michigan. This forcing will persist through early afternoon with surface wind obs indicating much of the elevated convection has undergone a transition to surface-based. The main threats will be sub-severe gusty winds in the strongest cores, lightning, and heavy downpours. This activity has preferentially developed along a sfc-900mb pseudo warm front and outflow feature along the M-59 corridor, leading to training storms and 2 to 3" amounts already in spots per MRMS. Localized convergence along this axis will continue to work eastward the rest of the morning, suggesting the threat for localized heavy rain and potential for urban flooding will persist between the I-96 and M-59 corridors through early afternoon. The DTX sounding highlighted modest lapse rates of 6.5 C/km in the 500-700mb layer fueling MUCAPE of nearly 1300 J/kg, with EBWD of around 30 kt. This is forecast to remain relatively steady today, with daytime heating eroding the remnant nocturnal stable layer. The surface cold front is evident in upstream radar imagery from Gaylord down to Grand Rapids. This will pass overhead this afternoon, driving the next flare-up in convection. No changes to the previous forecast for this period with widespread coverage of showers and storms likely, and a threat for strong to severe wind gusts in the strongest storms. Will closely monitor areas that receive heavy rainfall this morning, as these areas will be more susceptible to a flooding threat with additional rainfall. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 644 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 AVIATION... Height falls in advance of approaching trough are inducing deep thetae/moisture advection over Southeast Michigan this morning. Moistening of the column between 6.0 and 12.0 kft agl with cloud top cooling has resulted in shower and thunderstorm activity over portions of the area. IFR visibility restrictions will be possible for a short duration with any direct activity. A lull will be possible during the late morning hours before diurnal heating leads to shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon. Heart of the trough axis and associated strong potential vorticity anomaly will bring peak forcing for ascent between 18 and 22z this afternoon. Maintained a prevailing shower mention with a TEMPO for thunderstorms. Northwest gradient flow is expected to keep conditions mixed tonight with a potential for lower stratus development after 09z tonight. D21/DTW Convection...Warm and moisture advection brings a potential for thunderstorms this morning. Convective redevelopment is expected to occur again between 18-22z this afternoon. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High low for thunderstorms after 18z today. * Low for ceilings at or below 5000 ft this morning. Moderate in the afternoon. High tonight. PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 353 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 DISCUSSION... An active period of showers and thunderstorms continues in a couple of phases as Straits low pressure pulls a cold front through Lower Mi today. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms that are ongoing leading up to sunrise are within the low to mid level moisture axis ahead of the cold front. This is where model soundings indicate a deep layer of elevated instability, but with minimal CAPE density shown in both the soundings and implied by plan view depictions of 850 mb LI around -2 C and sub 7 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rate. This elevated convection merges with scattered hybrid surface based activity of similar intensity during the morning within and between a prefrontal surface trough and the inbound cold front. The early day activity adds some doubt about verification of model peak instability as the cold front sweeps through SE Mi this afternoon. However, HREF and REFS members all handle the ongoing activity reasonably well and still suggest a respectable recovery in time for the front to support a storm flare-up while overhead and before it exits into Ontario toward early evening. There is otherwise no big change in the CAPE/shear environment as HREF mean surface based CAPE holds below 1500 J/kg with bulk shear around 25 knots, good enough for multicell clusters capable of peak gusts approaching severe intensity as the primary hazard in the strongest storms. The Marginal Risk remains in place to highlight this potential in SE Mi with a Slight Risk now just east of the border until the front exits early this evening. Scattered showers trail the front, mainly during the evening, as the 500 mb trough digs toward the eastern Great Lakes, but also as moderate cold advection gains traction overnight. Increasing NW flow occurs across Lower Mi around the west flank of surface low pressure deepening on the Ontario/Quebec border as the 500 mb trough deepens and closes off early Sunday. Model agreement maintains the trend on solutions offering a larger mid level circulation closing off closer to Lower Mi during the day. There is also a well-defined reinforcing vorticity maximum holding consistency in model solutions as it digs in from the NW and moves overhead during the afternoon. Guidance probabilities for rain appear underdone in this environment as scattered to numerous coverage is favored, especially Sunday afternoon and evening with a boost from daytime instability. The low level thermal trough is firmly in place over the western Great Lakes by Monday morning with low temperatures in the upper 40s still within reach outside of the larger metro areas. Deterministic and ensemble model guidance continue to project single digit 850 mb temperatures to start the day which rebound quickly as the mid/upper level low shifts eastward. A stray shower also remains in play, especially toward the Thumb region, during the morning until confluent NW flow develops to help ensure dry weather for the afternoon and Monday night. Slightly below normal highs in the upper 70s are reachable as the thermal trough shifts eastward. Weak surface high pressure is supported by a mid/upper level short wave ridge Monday night and Tuesday. Dry weather and a few degrees of warming occur through mid week within the slowly progressive large scale flow. High temperatures return to the lower 80s during mid week while the next chance of rain is carried in by the current Pac NW system. Extended range global models project it arrives in the Great Lakes by Wednesday. MARINE... A cold front will progress across the Great Lakes while expanding shower and thunderstorm chances today. Any stronger storm development will be capable of producing wind gusts aoa 34 knots and/or small hail. Winds veer to the northwest in the wake of the passing front and will increase intensity and remain elevated through Sunday as cooler air is ushered in. Wind gusts will likely range around 25 to 30 knots through this weekend. The switch in wind direction from the northwest will quickly build wave heights in and around the Thumb and Small Craft Advisories are in effect beginning tonight. High pressure builds back in Monday and Tuesday which will bring lighter winds to the area. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Monday for LHZ421-441. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Monday for LHZ422. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Monday for LHZ442-443. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ UPDATE.......TF AVIATION.....CB DISCUSSION...BT MARINE.......AM You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  950 FXUS64 KHUN 221409 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 909 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 909 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - A few thunderstorms may impact the western portion of north AL late this afternoon/early this evening. Brief strong wind gusts could accompany the most intense cells. - There are low to medium chances of thunderstorms for much of next week. However, timing and impact confidence remains low at this time. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 909 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Areas of early morning fog have slowly begun to see improvements with the sun rise. Under mostly clear skies highs are forecast to rise to seasonal norms, reaching to low 90s by this afternoon. Despite the nice late summer day that develops through the afternoon, a marginal risk for strong to severe storms will exist this evening. On a larger scale, we remain in a NW flow aloft pattern allowing for shortwaves to easily ripple through the TN Valley. This evening, an approaching shortwave paired with a weak cold front will provide enough lift to initiate storms likely off to our NW by mid afternoon. CAMs are in okay agreement with most showing at least NW AL being clipped by some convection this evening. Some of the more bullish solutions do bring strong to severe storms through the whole area, but we have low confidence in seeing widespread storms at this time. Current thinking is storms will initiate to our NW and drift through NW AL from around 5 PM to 10 PM. As storms move through, instability will be actively decreasing as we lose the best daytime heating. The storms look to pass prior to the cold front and thus be displaced both spatial and temporally from slightly higher shear along the front. This will limit the overall severe threat with damaging winds being the primary concern. The front looks to move through during the night time hours with slight CAA funneling in through dawn. This will be immediately felt as lows tomorrow morning drop into the mid to high 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 909 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The short term forecast will have two features of interest. The first is slightly cooler temps with highs and lows a degree or two below seasonal norms. Highs look to largely remain below 90 degrees with lows staying below 70. The second feature of interest will be the overall synoptic pattern, which will remain in a ridging west / troughing east regime. This will keep us in NW flow and support additional shortwaves passing through the TN Valley. The first of these looks to be from Monday to Tuesday. While it's a little too soon to pull out specific details, really any passing feature could be enough to support general summertime thunderstorms each afternoon. Please check back for updates regarding any specific hazards and timing. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 751 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 In the extended forecast, we will get a break from the extreme heat conditions, however in exchange for that, we will be stuck in an unsettled pattern. We will start off with the pattern of an upper level low up in Quebec and the far NE U.S with an amplified ridge stretching from the southern Rockies up through the Northern Plains. On the back side of the ridge, a smaller upper-level low in Manitoba will try to be the driving force for a pattern change. As that smaller low slides SE into the Upper Great Lakes mid-week, the ridge will be dampened enough for it to round the ridge. This pattern will keep us in a northwesterly flow through the week. Embedded in this flow will be shortwaves that will swing through the TN Valley, keeping daily rain chancesin. Right now it looks like there is a chance for an MCS to drop through on Tuesday, then again Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Will keep an eye on trends for specific hazards and timing, but for now will stick with NBM POPs. Daytime highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows around 70 degrees. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 There have been no significant changes to previous aviation forecast reasoning, with minor vsby reductions in BR/FG possible for about the first hour of the valid TAF period. With a drier profile in place today, we expect mostly sunny skies with only a few Cu beneath a sct layer of Ac. Lgt NW flow (~5 kts) will prevail for much of the day, with winds expected to veer to the north and strengthen this evening as a reinforcing cold front begins to shift southward thru the TN Valley. Although a few low- topped SHRA may evolve along the front region-wide this evening, chances for TSRA will be slightly higher at MSL (due to a more organized complex of convection tracking southeastward into northern MS). Regardless, precip chances are too low to mention in either TAF attm. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RAD SHORT TERM....RAD LONG TERM....JMS AVIATION...70  387 FXUS63 KBIS 221412 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 912 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periodic low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms late tonight through Monday. - A few storms may be strong to severe in southwest and south central North Dakota during the day Sunday, far western North Dakota Sunday night, and central and eastern North Dakota on Monday. - Temperatures are favored to remain near to slightly above normal through next week, with highs mostly in the 80s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 911 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Quiet weather continues with high pressure settled over the area. No changes needed at this time. UPDATE Issued at 633 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The forecast for today remains on track. Quiet weather will prevail under surface high pressure. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 413 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A highly-amplified upper level wave pattern lies over North America early this morning, with a ridge axis along the Rockies and a trough axis from Hudson Bay to the Southern Appalachian Mountains. Surface high pressure is centered over southeast Saskatchewan, which is keeping the local weather very quiet. The surface high will morph into an elongated ridge and slide over the Red River Valley by the end of the day as the upper ridge axis begins to pivot off the Northern Rockies. Quiet weather will continue through the daytime hours, with high temperatures this afternoon ranging from the mid 70s northeast to mid 80s southwest. A mid level shortwave will eject off the Northern Rockies by this evening, cutting through the ridge axis. The increasing downstream warm-air advection, moisture transport, isentropic lift, etc. could generate showers and thunderstorms in eastern Montana tonight, spreading into western North Dakota early Sunday morning. MUCAPE could exceed 1000 J/kg with effective bulk shear near 30 kts in the southwest Sunday morning, but convection should remain elevated, and most CAMs are only simulating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The 00Z NAMnest is an outlier with a couple of clusters of strong to severe storms with bowing segments in the southwest Sunday morning and into the afternoon. Proximity model soundings at Dickinson do show higher RH at the base of the EML and higher equilibrium levels in the NAMnest, but its hodographs could best be described as chaotic. Therefore, the risk for severe weather Sunday morning into the early afternoon is very low, but not zero. This could change later Sunday afternoon as diurnal heating opens the potential for surface or mixed-layer based convection. However: 1) there is high confidence in a strong capping inversion above the boundary layer, 2) a moist southeasterly surface flow is not conducive to efficient boundary layer mixing, and 3) mid level clouds and/or anvil shading from morning convection could limit diurnal heating to some extent. CAMs do show an increased probability in stronger convection over south central North Dakota mid to late Sunday afternoon along the eastern gradient of the buoyancy pool, where CIN may be relatively weaker. Still looking at a CAPE/ shear parameter space supportive of only marginally severe storms though. But regardless of intensity, there are still medium chances (30 to 60 percent) for showers and thunderstorms across much of western and central North Dakota Sunday afternoon and evening as the shortwave moves through. Increased confidence in the aforementioned southeasterly flow and cloud cover has cooled the high temperature forecast into the lower and mid 80s for all but far southwest North Dakota on Sunday. By Sunday night, a much more potent shortwave/upper low will be ejecting off the Canadian Rockies into the southern prairie provinces. Clusters of thunderstorms forming off the Montana Rockies late Sunday afternoon could cross into western North Dakota Sunday night before dissipating. If this convection is maintained, it could be strong to severe as it moves into a higher buoyancy air mass with increasing shear. The 06Z HRRR appears to show a reasonable worst-case scenario with a broken line of strong to severe storms extending from the Canadian to South Dakota borders entering the state after 10 PM CDT. Simulated surface winds gusts in the 06Z HRRR are much lower in western North Dakota though than they are in eastern Montana earlier in the evening. The thunderstorm forecast on Monday remains uncertain and may end up highly dependent on the eastward propagation of the occluded front attendant to the potent Canadian upper low. Both CAPE (~2000 J/kg) and shear (~35 kts) directly ahead of the front are projected to be sufficient for severe storms. But very few ensemble members are generating any convection along the front, likely due to an absence of mid to upper level forcing. Broad mid level height falls do eventually spread into northern North Dakota, but that may lag behind the surface front. The latest NBM has reduced PoPs to only 20 to 30 percent Monday afternoon and evening, and kept mentionable PoPs east of Highway 83. But location uncertainty in the surface front at 00Z Monday evening ranges from as far west as Minot to Dickinson (NAM) to as far east as Devils Lake to Jamestown (a small subset of GEFS members). The progression of the front is also likely to play a role in high temperatures on Monday. Strong mixing in the dry post-frontal air mass could allow temperatures to approach 90 in southwest and south central North Dakota, with at least lower 80s elsewhere. This is assuming a slightly quicker frontal progression, which ensembles do tilt towards. Ensemble guidance shows the Canadian low digging southeastward on Tuesday, but with variance in its trajectory. That uncertainty may dictate how much temperatures cool off on Tuesday, but the NBM has trended slightly warmer than previous iterations with highs in the mid/upper 70s north to lower/mid 80s south. Regardless, Tuesday is likely to be a windier day, with northwest winds gusting as high as 35 mph. There could also be some diurnally-driven showers across the north Tuesday afternoon. Ensembles favor a return to northwest flow between an eastern CONUS trough and western CONUS ridge for the second half of next week, with uncertainty on when or if the ridge might get pushed eastward. Ensemble clusters that are more heavily ECMWF-weighted are much more progressive in breaking down the ridge, while some GEFS-heavy clusters keep the ridge to our west into next weekend. The NBM broadly maintains near average temperatures through the end of next week, but is starting to trend slightly above average in southwest and south central North Dakota considering that average temperatures themselves are now beginning to cool at this time of year. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 633 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. A few showers or thunderstorms could begin moving into far western North Dakota late tonight, but are unlikely to reach KXWA or KDIK until after 12Z Sunday. Winds will remain light and variable in central North Dakota while becoming southeast around 10 kts in western North Dakota this afternoon. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...JJS DISCUSSION...Hollan AVIATION...Hollan  635 FXUS61 KGYX 221416 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1016 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes to reflect latest observational trends. It will continue to be a mainly cloudy day with an increasing chance for scattered showers towards early this evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Unsettled weather is expected through the weekend, but no widespread significant rainfall amounts anticipated. 2. Isolated rain chances Monday-Tuesday with a lingering upper- level low. Tranquil conditions by midweek, and loose signals for increasing humidity late week ahead of another system. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure south of southern New England will continue to slowly lift northeast and weaken today. As it does so showers will become more likely, especially over western Maine. Save for the Seacoast it is possible most of NH remains dry today. NBM handling the placement of best rain chance fairly I think, so no planned changes there. Despite the relatively high PoP, QPF will be on the low side. Most locations can expect less than a tenth of an inch, but an especially lucky section of town could see up to a quarter. Overnight we will need to watch and see how marine fog/stratus develops. The long range HRRR brings low visibility into coastal areas, especially for western Maine. The set up would be favorable as a warm front begins to lift into the region by early Sun. Along that warm front showers and maybe a few thunderstorms are forecast to form and lift north into the local area. This will bring a scattered potential for beneficial rainfall amounts. I do not anticipate this being a widespread soaker, but locations that do see precip could see a decent amount given that this will be more convective in nature. At this time I think significant rainfall amounts will be too isolated to forecast, so I will stick with the NBM QPF amounts, which more closely match ensemble means around a quarter of an inch. Showery weather may continue into the afternoon and overnight, as upper low begins to move overhead and keep conditions unstable. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Upper-level low moving out of the Great Lakes will continue to pivot into southern Quebec early week while fully occluding/cutting off from the mean flow. This brings cyclonic westerly flow to New England. Most likely outcome will be falling dew points with diurnal clouds/brief showers Mon-Tue, especially focused in the higher terrain and closer to the upper-level low in the north. Should see a nice dry punch on Monday especially across NH with very dry mid-levels and dew points mixing down to as low as the 40s! Uncertain how much of this pushes into Maine. Depending on how it all times out there may be an opportunity for some t-storms to develop in a juicy warm sector featuring rather steep lapse rates, MUCAPE values that may be pushing 1000 J/Kg, and close to 50 kts of deep-layer shear. It is possible the mid- level dry punch could be a resistant against robust convection, but will keep a mention of iso to sct showers/thunder in the forecast at this time, with the primary focus from the Kennebec Valley down into the Midcoast. On Wednesday the low loses its grip with brief height rises bringing tranquil conditions. By late week ensembles show another wave heading our way with possible surface cyclogenesis in the Michigan vicinity. With a developing trough to our west, likely will see southerly flow developing and returning humidity, but details are largely unknown at the 6+ day range. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through tonight...Mainly VFR conditions prevail today, but by mid to late afternoon CIGs will be lowering and MVFR conditions are anticipated. It is possible that someIFR CIGs work into coastal areas by evening along with some rain showers. Low CIGs and more widespread fog will likely bring IFR to LIFR conditions across much of the area tonight. Outlook: Sunday: Fog scatters out as rain showers lift across the area Sun. Some improvement to MVFR and VFR is possible by evening. Sunday night: Continued improvement in conditions, except local LIFR in valley fog. Monday: Local MVFR or lower possible in showers. Monday Night: VFR conditions expected. Tuesday: Local MVFR or lower possible in showers. Tuesday Night and Wednesday: VFR conditions expected. && .MARINE... Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA thresholds thru the extended period, despite weak low pressure moving thru the Gulf of Maine today. Will have to watch the overnight window, when areas of fog and low stratus may develop ahead of an approaching warm front. Those foggy conditions are expected to lift out on Sun. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tubbs AVIATION...Tubbs  255 FXUS63 KJKL 221435 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1035 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another cold front will bring a possibility of showers and thunderstorms to the area today. - Some storms on this afternoon and evening could produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. - Noticeably cooler and less humid air will then arrive to start the new week, with mainly dry weather. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1035 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026 Fog across the CWA continues to mix out per surface and satellite observations. The forecast remains on track as a cold front approaches from the northwest this afternoon, driven by an upper-level disturbance. As daytime heating aids destabilization, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected from mid-afternoon into early evening. The potential for a few storms to produce gusty winds and small hail remains. Trends will continue to be monitored. SAFs have been updated to remove fog wording. UPDATE Issued at 750 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026 The areal extent of fog was adjusted based on recent satellite imagery and observations. This led to no substantial changes at this time. Valley fog should still lift and dissipate over the next couple of hours. Then attention turns to an approaching cold front and upper level disturbance that will move into eastern KY during peak heating. Several of the HRRR runs overnight continue to support the potential for gusty to locally damaging clusters or line segments for later in the afternoon and evening, though they vary in location. Trends for this potential will continue to be monitored. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 510 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026 Early this morning a closed upper level low was located in the vicinity of the southwestern portions of Lake Huron with an upper trough extending south and southeast across the Great Lakes to the OH valley as well as the TN Valley and Southern Appalachians/Southeast Conus. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge was centered in the Four Corners region vicinity while an upper low was off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. An initial shortwave was east of the Appalachians while a second was moving across the Central Great Lakes to Lower OH Valley region with yet a third shortwave upstream from the western Great Lakes into parts of the Upper MS Valley. At the surface, a quasi stationary front was well and east of eastern KY from the Carolinas to the Gulf coast states to the Southern Plains. A rather weak ridge of sfc high pressure was located from the Ozarks vicinity into the Lower OH Valley in between this baroclinic zone to the south and a cold front extending from a sfc low in the UP of MI/Lake Superior to the mid MS Valley to Central Plains. Clear skies, lingering low level moisture with mid to upper 60s dewpoints, and light winds associated with the sfc ridging has allowed rather extensive fog formation overnight and this has become dense in several locations even outside of the typical deeper valleys as of 5 AM EDT. An SPS has been issued for this through 930 AM EDT. Today and tonight, the shortwave currently working across the Lower OH Valley region should cross the area through midday to early afternoon with mainly some passing clouds for eastern KY. However, the shortwave further upstream will move into the Central Great Lakes to Lower OH Valley during the afternoon to early evening. This will be preceded by the upstream cold front sweeping across western and central sections of the Commonwealth as the sfc low moves to the Lake Huron/Ontario vicinity. Once fog lifts and dissipates within about 3 hours of sunrise, solar insolation should result in highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s across eastern KY, with 70s above 2500 feet. Southwest flowahead of the front should keep mixed dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s on average. Cooling aloft from the approaching shortwave and daytime heating should yield moderate instability 1500 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE with roughly 2000 to 3000 J/kg MUCAPE per 06Z RAP with at least 20 to 25KT of bulk shear. Unidirectional shear could support some hail up to around quarter size though mid level lapse rates of 6C/km or less should be a limiting factor. Strong to locally damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard from isolated to scattered convection that may organize into a couple of clusters or line segments. Several recent HRRR runs have a few wind gusts as high as 40 to 50KT the JKL CWA vicinity with late afternoon to early evening convection. SPC has placed most of the area in a Slight Risk for this and this has been highlighted in the HWO and will also be highlighted in social media and weatherstory posts. The shortwave shifts east of the area by late in the evening with the cold front moving across the Appalachians and should result in showers diminishing in all locations by midnight. Fog formation should again occur, with valleys and locations that pick up more substantial rainfall over the next 18 hours most favored for potentially dense areas. A sfc ridge of high pressure extending from Manitoba and Ontario to the mid MS Valley during the evening will begin to build into the area late tonight. This will be followed by a gradual trend in 500 mb heights on Sunday as the sfc ridge builds into the Lower OH Valley and parts of the TN Valley as well as Southern Appalachians. This will usher in an airmass more typical of a month from now with 850 mb temperatures trending down a couple of degrees C and dewpoints dropping off about 10 degrees mainly into the mid to upper 50s as PW drops to the 0.65 to 0.95 inch range or 5th to 20th percentile range per 00Z HREF mean. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 400 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026 At the start of the long term period, the main story will be pleasant weather more reminiscent of early fall than late August. Upper level troughing will sit over the eastern CONUS, with a relatively vertically stacked low pressure system over Ontario. Meanwhile, to the southwest of the forecast area, upper level ridging will be centered over the Southern High Plains. At the surface, high pressure will sit over the Midwest, with winds generally light and northwesterly across eastern Kentucky; this will work to maintain the cooler and drier postfrontal air mass to begin the week. These light winds and a weak pressure gradient across the area will also allow for a modest ridge valley temperature split overnight Sunday into Monday morning, with typical valley fog formation. MOS guidance could be a bit aggressive with overnight lows for some spots, given lingering moisture, and low 50s for the coldest spots may be overdone. For most or all locations, low temperatures will likely range from the mid 50s in valley locations to the upper 50s or around 60 on the ridgetops. During the day on Monday, the upper level ridge will expand eastward somewhat. Associated height rises across the Ohio Valley should work to keep the forecast area dry, with temperatures rising into the upper 70s to low 80s. Thankfully, continued northwesterly winds will keep dewpoints blissfully low in the mid 50s. Overnight, low temperatures will again fall into the 50s, with a similar modest ridge valley temperature split and another night of river valley fog. On Tuesday, forecast uncertainty increases somewhat. The upper level trough axis will be well east of the area, with eastern Kentucky in a region of northwest flow aloft. Many models depict a shortwave traversing this flow, with fairly substantial spatial and timing differences; at present, the most likely outcome is that, at best, this energy delivers a glancing blow to the forecast area, relegating any rain chances to Tennessee. However, some deterministic model runs do suggest that an isolated shower or storm could be possible in our southwestern counties. Even so, a drier solution currently appears far more likely, and NBM PoPs are accordingly very low. More widespread rain chances may return to the forecast on Wednesday as a surface low originally over Oklahoma translates northeastward. A warm front associated with this low will attempt to lift towards the area; however, a cold front extending from another surface low over the Upper Midwest will loom to the west of the forecast area. Given the expected eastward progression of this cold front, there is significant uncertainty regarding how far north the warm front can progress before it is overtaken. Broadly, Wednesday and Thursday will feature increased moisture and a chance of showers and storms; however, any forecast details will remain dependent on the location, progression, and timing of these boundaries, and forecast uncertainty is very high at this time. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026 Fog formed in the valleys overnight and lifted into most of the TAF sites at least for a time. This fog has generally been the least persistent and intense near KIOB, with the rest of the sites experiencing at least a brief period of below airport min ceilings or visibility. This fog should lift and dissipate through about 14Z and give way to cumulus development by 16Z. A cold front and disturbance will approach during peak heating and result in isolated to scattered convection between about 17Z and 01Z. Some of the storms could contain strong to damaging wind gusts and some gusts in the 30 to 40KT range if not locally higher are not out of the question. PROB30 groups were included for a few hours at all sites for the potential for thunder on station for a brief period. Any convection could bring brief reductions to IFR if not lower. Winds will be light and variable to begin the period, but become WSW to W at 5 to 10KT between 14Z and 00Z. Winds will trend to the northwest behind the front between 00Z and 06Z and slacken. Some fog development is favored during the last 6 hours of the period and IFR or lower reductions for areas mainly south of KSYM and KIOB are possible per guidance as high pressure builds in behind the front. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...GINNICK SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...HEF AVIATION...JP  533 FXUS62 KKEY 221444 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1044 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Conditions remain somewhat favorable for an island cloud line and associated waterspouts this afternoon. - Rain and thunder chances will gradually return to near normal by early to middle of next week. - Highs near 90 and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s suggest afternoon heat indices will peak at 105 to 108 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1040 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Surface ridging remains in the western north Atlantic with an axis extending into South Florida and the Southeast Gulf. Light southeast to south winds were noted around 5 mph over the island chain. The morning sounding added about three tenths of an inch in precipitable water and notably below 900 mb and a 1.5C decrease in 500 mb temperature. These two changes along made it not surprising several hundred J/kg of CAPE was added among the calcuation methods including mixed-layer. A deeper plume of moisture evident on GOES estimates near 2.0 inches of precipitable water was aligned from Andros Island southward with a westward drift. Convection-allowing guidance responds in kind with a potential for isolated showers near the larger islands of the Lower Keys and Florida Bay developing around noon, with the potential for a few to become thunderstorms by mid afternoon. The light south to southwest steering flow, while mainly 10 knots or less, appears sufficiently deep to shift the convection northward into the Gulf and Bayside. The current slight rain chances with inclusion of thunder remains on the mark for this afternoon. The deeper moisture lurking to our southeast is likely to stretch northwest and northward with the westward component of drift slow enough to only make it into the easternmost Straits Sunday morning. Thus, no significant uptick in rain chances is seen for tonight with the slight chances continuing. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 431 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A weak frontal boundary will stall along the Gulf Coast region today. It appears that deeper moisture content will remain focused just to our north/northwest closer to the convergent axis while latest forecast soundings and short term guidance suggests our PWATs will remain near the 10th to 25th percentiles for today, ranging from 1.4-1.6". This localized pocket of drier air is currently viewable on the GOES-E Split Window product and will likely be the primary limiting factor for our rain chances today. Our winds will remain on the weaker side with a general southeasterly component due to being within influence of the western periphery of the North Atlantic ridge, but winds may become variable at times this afternoon in which case conditions could become somewhat conducive for waterspouts if cloud line formation is able to occur. Otherwise, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms across the Upper Keys due to weak low-level speed convergence over the Bahamas which may support isolated thunderstorm develop west of Andros Island this afternoon. Any development that occurs may drift into the eastern Straits of Florida and towards the Upper Keys. This setup will remain largely unchanged through Sunday and into next week due to the stagnant upper-level pattern. With mostly sunny skies and rain chances below-normal, afternoon heat indices along the island chain should easily reach the 105-108 degree range with highs in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. Moisture advection early next week should bring the return of near- normal, to perhaps above-normal, rain chances, particularly as southeasterly flow becomes better established and the forecast area becomes better aligned withthe zone of weak low-level speed convergence. && .MARINE... Issued at 1040 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a split ridge pattern remains in place across the Florida Keys coastal waters. This will promote generally light to gentle southeast to south breezes through Sunday, becoming variable at times during the afternoon hours. While North Atlantic ridging builds westward, southeasterly to easterly breezes will become more established for Sunday night through the middle of next week, becoming gentle and at times moderate during the overnight hours. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KEYW and KMTH through the TAF period. Light southeast to south winds 4 to 7 knots are expected to continue through Sunday morning. There is low confidence that a cloud line will be able to effectively form along the larger islands of the Lower Keys, but isolated showers or even a thunderstorm could form along the Gulf side given the weak southeast to south winds. At this time the probability for even a vicinity impact remains too low to include in the TAFs. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JR Aviation/Nowcasts....JR Data Acquisition.....RG Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest  733 FXUS62 KTAE 221445 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1045 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1039 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again for this afternoon and evening, mainly across Florida and far southern Georgia. The strongest storms are expected to produce wind gusts of 40-60 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rain. - A typical summertime pattern is expected for next week with highs in the mid 90s and isolated to scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening. A gradual increase in rain chances is expected later in the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1039 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 No significant changes to the forecast this morning. Not quite as hot today as the past several days, with no heat products necessary. Best chances for storms this afternoon still appear to target a southwest to northeast corridor stretching from near Mexico Beach into South Central Georgia, kicking off by mid- afternoon. MLCAPE in the 2500-3000j/kg range and DCAPE ~800j/kg will support a few strong to marginally severe storms this afternoon within this corridor as well. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 For today, an upper level shortwave will bisect our area from northeast to southwest. Therefore, rain chances will be highest for areas from Panama City to Tifton and southward. While soundings aren't quite as impressive today compared to yesterday, some gusty winds could still occur with the strongest storms. Drier air will sneak into our area as well, which should keep us below Heat Advisory levels. It will still be hot with highs in the lower 90s and heat index values of 100-107. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Sunday will be the driest day with precipitable water values dropping to the 1.2-1.5 inch range. Thus, little coverage of showers and storms is expected for Sunday. What little activity occurs will likely be near the sea breeze. Highs will still be quite warm in the mid to upper 90s, but the lower dewpoints will keep most heat indices below the heat advisory of 108F, with the possible exception of along the coast. For Monday, we'll have to watch if a shortwave rounds the ridge to our west and enters our area during the afternoon, which may help spark better coverage of showers and storms. Highs will still be in the mid 90s. Through much of the remaining part of the upcoming week, the ridge will remain off to our west, and we'll remain in northwesterly flow aloft. So, we'll continue to monitor for any ridge-riding disturbances, but our rain chances will gradually increase with a return to a summer pattern. Highs remain in the low to mid 90s with heat index values of 102-108. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions prevail at most TAF sites, outside of KVLD which has reported 5SM most of the night, this morning. Model guidance has trended a bit wetter in and around KTLH and KVLD and gave enough confidence to include TEMPO groups for those two sites later this afternoon. Elsewhere, drier air filtering in from the north should keep a lid on rain chances. That said, have elected to keep PROB30 groups in for KECP, KDHN, and KABY to have a little wiggle room in case showers/storms develop more north and west than currently forecast. Drier air filters in from the north tonight and may lead to some fog and/or stratus deck at most TAF sites early Sunday morning. Confidence wasn't high enough to go prevailing MVFR or IFR this far out, but it's something we'll monitor over the next 18 to 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Scattered storms are expected for today with gusty winds and brief waterspouts are possible in the stronger storms. Otherwise, mainly gentle to occasionally moderate southwesterly breezes will continue over the next several days with seas around 1-2 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Generally light west to southwest transport winds will continue through today, then become more variable on Monday. Dispersions will remain good overall each afternoon. Scattered showers and storms are expected again this afternoon, but decreasing coverage is anticipated for Sunday. Gusty, erratic winds and dangerous lightning strikes will be possible. Drier air will move in on Sunday, but RH values will stay above critical levels. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Locally heavy downpours will be possible with the storms this afternoon with isolated areas receiving a few inches of rainfall in a short period of time. This would lead to some nuisance to isolated flash flood concerns, particularly in low-lying or poor drainage areas. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 93 74 97 74 / 60 40 10 10 Panama City 90 78 93 78 / 40 10 10 10 Dothan 94 73 97 72 / 20 10 10 10 Albany 94 73 97 72 / 50 20 10 10 Valdosta 94 72 97 72 / 70 20 10 10 Cross City 91 74 93 74 / 30 30 40 10 Apalachicola 89 78 92 79 / 40 20 30 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM....DVD AVIATION...Reese MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...DVD