442 FXUS61 KCTP 221701 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 101 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * SPC has continued to extend/expand the risk of severe thunderstorms to the east another tier or more of counties for both the SLGT and MRGL areas. * Updated near term sky/temps/PoPs to match current trends. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Upper level low pressure swinging SE from the upper Glakes to southern Ontario will lead to high temps trending cooler by a few to several degrees each day through Monday along with periods of showers and isolated to scattered gusty thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Upper level low pressure swinging SE from the upper Glakes to southern Ontario will lead to high temps trending cooler by a few to several degrees each day through Monday along with periods of showers and isolated to scattered gusty thunderstorms. 11 AM Update... The fog has burned off, but cu has started to expand a bit across the S. Temps pleasant and dewpoints climbing with M60s in the Lower Susq. TSRA over Erie are sliding N of the CWA, but certainly a bit of lift remains and could flare up. Previous... Significant amplification of a longwave trough will occur over the next several days across the Glakes, Mid Atlantic region and Central Appalachian with 500 mb height falls of 60-100 meters and mean 850-700 mb layer temps of around 6 deg C from this evening to Monday morning. Abundant sunshine expected across the CWA North and West of the Lower Susq Valley with max temps this afternoon generally between 75-80F. The initial lead shortwave and right entrance region of a 65 kt upper level jet trailing a zone of very sharp upper diffluence over the western 1/3 of PA late today/early tonight will support development of scattered strong to severe TSRA across the western 1/3 to 1/2 of our CWA with the likely evolution/upscale growth of multicell clusters into a bkn line of TSRA with its axis near the RT 219 corridor between 00Z and 03Z Sunday where 0-1KM EHI will be in the 1-1.5 M2/S2 range and 0-3 KM Bulk shear will be average 20-25 KTS with some pockets just above 30 kts across the NW Mtns near KBFD at 03Z Sunday. HREF MU CAPE Values do drop off fairly quickly from their late afternoon/early evening peak of 1200-1500 J/KG across western PA, and the severe threat will be diminished by 02z across the Mtns of Western PA. The eastern half of PA will get the gradually weakening convection later this evening/overnight. For Sunday, the best larger scale/deep layer cooling aloft will occur across the eastern half of the state and that will be the focus for the SVR threat. MU CAPE will be lower by around 500 J/KG but deep layer swrly shear will be 35-40 kts across our eastern CWA. Therefore, SPC's MRGL risk covers the better threat for gusty winds with the storms across the eastern half of PA on Sunday with some isolated occurrences of pea to marble size hail in the taller storms Sunday. The cyclonic flow may keep showers downwind of Lake Erie into Monday. Daytime highs will be near to slightly below the historical average for late August, making it feel more like mid September especially Sunday into Monday. SPC trimmed the MRGL back a bit to the west on Saturday, which should feature early day clouds and a few showers spreading from SE to NW during the day. Drier/less humid conditions are likely to prevail during the first half of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Much of the area is VFR as of early aft. Still a bit of lower conditions across the far east. Timing of showers and storms in the 12Z TAF package looks good, so will use it. Best chance for a strong storm is near the across the far northwest part of PA, where higher dewpts are and also closer to the low pressure system. Also a coastal low will keep a chance of shower or perhaps a brief storm over the southeast. For Sunday, went with VCSH at BFD, but dry otherwise, as wind shift line is past our area. Outlook... Mon-Wed...Patchy morning fog, otherwise mainly VFR conditions return early next week. Thu...Chance of showers and storms again. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Steinbugl/Banghoff DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo/Steinbugl AVIATION...Martin  670 FXUS63 KILX 221705 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1205 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A 20% chance of thunderstorms exists across east-central IL from 3-8 pm today. While severe storms are unlikely, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The early morning storms will continue to dissipate as they push southeast across central Illinois. What's left of the storms should be near to south of I-70 by 4 am. The weak cold front will shift winds to the northwest early this morning...ushering in slightly cooler temps. Temps will rebound into the 80-85 degree range for today. We'll see lower 500 mb heights for the weekend into Monday as an upper trough passes through the Great Lakes region...keeping temps a few degrees below normal. Sunday and Monday look to have highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Regarding shower/storm chances today, the HREF mean has 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE across central IL by midday... with some models teasing of a line of convection extending east to west from Danville to Lincoln by 5 pm. Have introduced some slight chances of storms moving south from 3 pm to 8 pm across east- central IL. SPC just has general thunder in this area...severe storms are not expected. PWATs are rather low, 1-1.25 inches, favoring a rather isolated storm setup. With 30kts of deep shear and some upper support, a strong to near- severe storm can't be ruled out, despite the drier air. Tonight, much drier air aloft will push into the area, bringing clearing skies and allowing lows to drop to the upper 50s to low 60s. For the work week, expect cooler than average temperatures at the front of the week give way to near normal temps for the mid to latter part of the week. We'll see another upper trough move from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region for Wed- Thu. Precipitation looks rather limited due to the pattern. However, there could be some low chances showing up as we get closer to the Wed-Fri timeframe. Models are hinting at something more organized for the latter part of next weekend. We'll see if this gains traction in upcoming model runs. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions prevail the next 24 hours. Northwest winds this afternoon will range from 10-15 knots before settling down before sunset. A stray shower or storm is possible late this afternoon, though odds of occurrence are only around 10-15% and preclude any mention at the terminals right now. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Knutsvig DISCUSSION...Knutsvig AVIATION...Geelhart  628 FXUS64 KMEG 221703 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1203 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Strong-to-severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds and large hail as the primary threats. - Shower and thunderstorm chances remain elevated through midweek, effectively limiting the potential for extreme heat across the region. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Two MCSs are ongoing as of 11 AM, one in eastern Kansas and the other in eastern Oklahoma. The system in eastern Oklahoma is likely to weaken/dip south and miss the Mid-South, but the Kansas system track is likely to skirt across the region. Showers and thunderstorms threatening damaging winds and large hail will accompany this system this afternoon and evening. Inverted-V model soundings increase confidence in the damaging wind threat. Mid-level lapse rates around 7C/km, combined with a bit of dry air, will support hail growth as well, which is well represented by the Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe weather. Much of the 12z CAM guidance favors this afternoon between 3-10 PM as the most likely timing for severe thunderstorm development. As northwest flow aloft continues, the Mid-South is susceptible to systems threatening damaging wind and hail each day through at least midweek. Timing and placement will be refined as convective evolution becomes clearer. Due to the potential for storms each day, this does keep temperatures on the 'cooler side' with seasonal temperatures (low to mid 90s) instead of the extreme heat we have experienced thus far. Probabilities for heat index values above 105F are generally less than 20% through the work week, with some local hot spots in the Delta Region. Confidence is highest in this pattern sticking around through at least Wednesday. Confidence in the synoptic pattern decreases significantly beyond Wednesday due to model divergence. Be sure to monitor the forecast this week, especially if you have outdoor afternoon plans! DNM && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Model guidance is consistent with another frontal boundary dropping down along the I-40 corridor this afternoon. The remnants of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) will translate SE into JBR and MEM over the next couple of hours with scattered TSRAs developing. Further east, mainly daytime heating will result in isolated to scattered TSRAs at both MKL and TUP. Coverage remains too broad to upgrade beyond a VCTS at MEM and JBR and only PROB30s were maintained at all sites. Winds will briefly become west this afternoon before shifting back to the N and NNE tonight. Light winds and residual moisture will result in pockets of patchy fog near daybreak, but confidence is too low to mention in the TAF at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A weak cold front has cleared the region and dropped relative humidity values into the lower 40 percent range across areas along and west of the Mississippi River, with this drier air filtering across the majority of the Mid-South. However, light surface winds, daily rain chances, and adequate overall moisture will keep critical fire weather concerns safely at bay. The combination of light overnight winds and clear skies will also create a potential for patchy fog during the early morning hours, particularly along low-lying river basins. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...AC3  642 FXUS65 KFGZ 221704 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1004 AM MST Sat Aug 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Look for daily chances for showers and thunderstorms to continue through early next week, primarily across the higher terrain. Drier and warmer conditions are then expected to develop as a strong high pressure system builds over Arizona. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft centered over northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado early Saturday morning will slowly drift southward through Tuesday then westward toward the end of next week becoming centered over the southern portions of Arizona/New Mexico border. The net result will be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms across northern Arizona through Monday or Tuesday then diminished chances as the position of the high will allow for a bit drier air and a more stable air mass to develop over northern Arizona. For Today...Monsoon moisture will remain in place. As a result, we're looking at another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with a bit more activity than seen on Friday. Southeast flow aloft will continue to favor shower and thunderstorm development midday over the Grand Canyon, Mogollon Rim, White mountains and Chuska Mountains with activity then tending to move north and east from that point. However, deep moisture still resides to the south of the Mogollon Rim and models are showing and increase activity even for Yavapai and Gila Counties. Otherwise, light winds and hot. From Sunday into Tuesday...Monsoon moisture remains in place with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. The flow aloft will remain southerly with the bulk of activity expected from the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains northward. Otherwise, with the high remaining over the southwest United States, light winds will continue along with above normal temperatures. Looking from Wednesday onward...Models appear to be trending toward high pressure aloft becoming centered over southeast Arizona/southwest New Mexico. This solution would bring in a more southwest to west flow aloft which would deliver a drier air mass as well as a capping layer aloft under the influence of weak subsidence. In addition, daytime temperatures will be on the increase, likely eventually rising to the upper 80 to lower 90s in the mountains to 105 to 110 degrees at elevations below 4000 feet. Yeah a bummer, but its still summer after all. && .AVIATION...Saturday 22/18Z through Sunday 23/18Z...VFR conditions mostly expected, but brief MVFR conditions possible in heavier SHRA/TSRA. Showers/storms forecast between 18Z-02Z, with greatest coverage along a KFLG-KSOW line and along the AZ/NM border. Outside of gusty/erratic outflow driven winds, look for variable winds 10 kts or less. OUTLOOK...Sunday 23/18Z through Tuesday 25/18Z...VFR conditions mostly expected. Daily chances for -SHRA/-TSRA possible, primarily across the higher terrain. Outside of gusty/erratic outflow driven winds, look for variable winds 10 kts or less. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Look for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening across northern Arizona with main focus from the White Mountains and Mogollon Rim northward. Stronger storms will produce gusty and erratic winds and localized heavy rainfall. Away from storms, winds look to be southwest to northwest 5-15 mph each day, becoming variable in the evening and overnight. Monday through Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue on Monday, becoming more isolated on Tuesday and Wednesday. Stronger storms will bring gusty and erratic winds and brief downpours. Otherwise, warming daytime temperatures with southwest to west winds at 5-15 mph each day. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...Konieczny FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  717 FXUS63 KARX 221705 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1205 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued dry and pleasant for the remainder of the weekend with highs in the low 70s to low 80s. - The next potential risk for showers and storms comes Tuesday/early Wednesday (20-50% chance) with rain not returning to the forecast again until next weekend. - Seasonable temperatures continue for next week with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Rest of Today - Monday: Dry and Seasonable We find ourselves solidly embedded in northwesterly flow this afternoon as an upper tropospheric trough digs over the Great Lakes/Ohio River valley and a paired meridional ridge builds along the Front Range. This upstream ridge slowly migrates eastward over the next 24-48 hours, with the ridge axis over the High Plains on Sunday and central Missouri River Valley by midday Monday. The net result for the region will be continued dry and pleasant conditions through Monday. Highs should top out in the upper 70s to low 80s with a Canadian fetch dropping dewpoints into the 40s and 50s. Not bad for late August! The only forecast concerns for this timeframe will revolve around any overnight/early morning valley fog, which looks to be confined to the Mississippi River tributaries tonight but could become more widespread Sunday night depending on how the upper level clouds pan out. Tuesday - Wednesday: Storm Potential Returns Medium range guidance continues to be in good agreement that our main window for precipitation in the seven day forecast will come between Tuesday and Wednesday mornings as a compact vort lobe crests the aforementioned ridge and slides across Minnesota and Wisconsin. There may be stronger mid to upper level unidirectional flow with this complex that could result in organized cell structures should the lower level thermodynamic fields line up. Early looks at some of the deterministic GFS forecast soundings reflect this notion with elongated NW to SE hodographs that would support all modes of severe convection. The devil is in the details at this stage in the forecast and, given the wide range of plausible outcomes, plenty can change over the next 2-3 days. Latter Half of the Week: Dry Start, More Active for the Weekend We return to northwesterly flow and dry conditions for the latter half of the week with no real signal for additional rainfall until next weekend as the ridge flattens and several waves push through. There is some signal for a more organized precipitation event in some of the longer range deterministic and ensemble solutions with some outliers depicting swaths of 1-2+ inches of rain for later in the weekend. That being said, these are the outlier (<10%) solutions and there is a wide spread in the track of this system at this range. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected for most locales through the TAF period, with the potential (20-40% chance) for IFR/LIFR fog in valley locations outside of the mainstem Mississippi River late tonight into Sunday morning. Winds remain from the northwest at 10-15G20kts this afternoon, falling to around 5 kts overnight and increasing to 5-10 kts for Sunday. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Skow AVIATION...Skow  753 FXUS63 KMPX 221706 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1206 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Pleasant this weekend with seasonable temperatures. -Low chances for thunderstorms overnight Sunday, & again on Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 119 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A pleasant & quiet weekend is expected as high pressure continues to settle over the Upper Midwest. Mostly sunny skies are expected both Saturday & Sunday with highs generally in the upper 70s to around 80, while lower dew points will make for comfortable late-August conditions. Northwest winds will become breezy this morning with gusts around 20-25 mph before winds diminish after sunset. Lighter winds return Sunday as the surface high moves overhead. Clear skies & light winds will also allow for good radiational cooling at night, with lows generally in the 50s and a few upper 40s possible across the typical cooler locations of central Minnesota & western Wisconsin. The surface high begins shifting east Monday, with southerly flow returning ahead of the next weak cold front. This front looks to move through sometime late Monday into Tuesday, bringing our next chance for scattered showers & thunderstorms. Moisture return ahead of the front looks fairly limited though, and considerable spread remains within the ensemble guidance regarding precipitation coverage, so rain chances remain fairly low at this point. The first round of thunderstorms looks possible late Sunday night into Monday morning, but guidance generally keep the shortwave & bulk of the precipitation off to the west over the Dakotas. Another cold front moves through the region on Tuesday, but current model timing consensus brings the front through during the early morning hours, which would mean that any widespread convection & appreciable rainfall could be limited. Otherwise, temperatures look to remain steady through next week with highs generally around 80 & lows in the 50s to low 60s. Overall, were looking at a fairly quiet & seasonable stretch of late- August weather over the next seven days. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Generally clear sky VFR over most of the period. Some diurnal cumulus this afternoon, but coverage should keep us VFR. Ample mixing will allow for gusty winds this afternoon up to around 20 to 25 knots. Winds will calm along the usual diurnal curve this evening into the following morning. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR, chc -SHRA late. Wind SE 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR, chc -SHRA early. Wind SW 10-20 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...NDC  896 FXUS63 KTOP 221709 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1209 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain exits the area early this afternoon, leaving dry conditions for the remainder of the day. - Periodic shortwaves in the northwest flow bring additional chances for rain tomorrow and early in the workweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 At 07Z, there were two areas of thunderstorms on regional radar, one in western/central KS and another in north-central Nebraska. The storms in north-central Nebraska should continue to track southeast with the mean 850-300mb wind. Based on the current storm movement, storms could enter far northern Kansas by 11Z. Forecast RAP/HRRR soundings at that time show around 1000 J/kg of elevated CAPE and around 40 kts of effective bulk shear. Thus, storms should be able to maintain strength to move into the area and continue southeast this morning. A few strong wind gusts of 50-60 mph could occur with the strongest updrafts. Rain/storms exit the area late this morning, leaving us with partly cloudy skies and light winds for the afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler than yesterday with highs generally in the mid 80s. The upper pattern won't change much this weekend or early next week, and continues to feature a large ridge centered over New Mexico with northwest flow over our region. Periodic shortwaves in the northwest flow will bring chances for rain and storms, with most guidance showing the next notable wave moving over northeast KS tomorrow afternoon. Forecast sounding show some mid-level lift associated with the wave, however, there appears to be a layer of dry air beneath H7 and fairly weak low and mid level flow. Additionally, earlier cloud cover looks to limit instability. Have kept POPs between 20-30 percent. Severe weather is not expected. Scattered storms could then redevelop Sunday night within an area of isentropic ascent in eastern KS. Temperatures warm slightly for Monday and Tuesday, but stay around climatological normals. The next chance for precipitation will be Tuesday night and early Wednesday with another mid-level shortwave. A weak cold front associated with a surface low near the Great Lakes also looks to move through the area on Wednesday, although temperatures and the main upper level pattern do not look to change much through mid-week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions expected. Some patchy fog may develop overnight, especially at KTOP, but confidence is low given elevated winds off the surface and increasing cloud cover. Showers may approach KMHK around 14z Sunday, but coverage and location of precip is too uncertain to include for now. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Teefey AVIATION...Flanagan  858 FXUS64 KSJT 221708 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1208 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Big Country, Heartland and Concho Valley areas this afternoon. - There is a low (15%-20%) chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms, mainly across the Big Country, this afternoon and evening. - Hot and mainly dry weather will persist through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 102 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The main concern today will continue to be the heat affecting the area, with highs once again expected to range from around 100 degrees in our southwestern counties to potentially near 110 degrees in our Big Country counties north of I-20. So, the Heat Advisory will continue for the same area as yesterday for the Big Country, Heartland, and most of the Concho Valley. In addition to the heat, there is a low (15%-20%) chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms for the Big Country, and areas mainly east of a Brady to Junction line. Although we aren't expecting widespread coverage or severe weather, temperature/dewpoint spreads will be large (40+ degrees Fahrenheit) which could lead to strong wind gusts over 50 mph should any storms form. Any storms that do form will end by midnight. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Next week will be hot and generally dry for our area with daily highs 8-12 degrees above normal. The strong upper level high will be over the New Mexico/Texas border Sunday-Tuesday, and then slowly migrate west toward the New Mexico/Arizona border by Thursday- Friday. The hottest days look to be Sunday through Tuesday, with the high in closer proximity and the 850mb thermal ridge the strongest. Expect highs to be 104-107 across the Concho Valley and 105-110 in the Big Country. Our southern counties will have highs mostly 100- 103 degrees. Anticipate the need for additional Heat Advisories for our northern and central counties, and some locations north of I-20 may approach Extreme Heat Warning criteria. By Thursday and Friday, expect highs to be in the upper 90s/around 100 in our southern counties, and 100-105 degrees farther north across the rest of our area. With weak northerly flow aloft around the eastern side of the aforementioned high in the midweek time frame, some of the medium range models hint at a possibility for a few showers and thunderstorms to develop along a surface trough as it moves south into our area Wednesday night and Thursday. The possibility looks remote at this time, however. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1136 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the TAF period. Expect the hot and dry conditions to persist. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 81 106 81 107 / 10 0 0 0 San Angelo 77 104 77 104 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 75 103 73 103 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 77 105 77 106 / 10 0 0 0 Sweetwater 80 106 80 107 / 10 0 0 0 Ozona 74 99 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 76 103 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan- Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Jones-McCulloch-Nolan-Runnels- San Saba-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...41  212 FXUS63 KIWX 221710 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 110 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and isolated storms possible east of I-69 this afternoon and evening. - Breezy today with northwest winds gusting as high as 25 to 30 mph. - 20-30% chances for scattered lake effect rain showers downwind of Lake Michigan tonight through Sunday. - Dangerous swimming conditions persist through the weekend on southern Lake Michigan. - Below normal temperatures and much lower humidity Sunday through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1237 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A typical early fall-like weekend is ahead with clouds, showers, breezy conditions, and cooler temperatures. A low pressure system is located over northern Lower Michigan with its attendant cold front positioned just west of IN-15 currently. Scattered showers and isolated storms can be seen on radar this afternoon, especially along and east of I-69, where a 500 mb shortwave is aiding in convective development as the front pushes east. Can't rule out an isolated strong storm or two (especially in northwest Ohio) as there is an area of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 700 J/kg DCAPE across northern Indiana and northwest Ohio but the likelihood of organized severe weather is low given marginal shear of only 20 kts and poor low/mid level lapse rates. In addition to showers and storms, a deepening pressure gradient on the backside of this system is expected to generate gusty northwest winds throughout this afternoon and evening. Northwest winds will be sustained around 10 to 15 mph with gusts as high as 25 to 30 mph until sunset. Northwest cyclonic flow and delta Ts of ~14C (water temps ~24C, 10C at 850mb tonight) should produce at least a weak lake effect response tonight with scattered showers overnight into Sunday morning in the vicinity of Lake Michigan. Showers should gradually increase in coverage across northern Indiana downwind of Lake Michigan into the afternoon on Sunday. It will be breezy again out of the northwest on Sunday and then light winds return Monday and Tuesday as the pressure gradient eases. Did bump up cloud cover and lower temps for tomorrow as this pattern typically produces more lake effect clouds downwind of Lake Michigan than the NBM picks up on. Dangerous swimming conditions are ongoing for southeast Lake Michigan beaches and are expected to continue through Sunday. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for La Porte and Berrien counties through 11 PM EDT Sunday. High swim risks are expected both days with northwest winds generating 3 to 5 ft waves. Strong rip and structural currents are also expected! If your weekend plans include heading to the beach, heed all warnings from lifeguards and stay out of the water! A dry, continental airmass from central Canada moves in later Sunday as high pressure builds across the Midwest and Great Lakes. Much lower humidity and several days of slightly below normal temperatures will make for refreshing early fall-like days Sunday through Tuesday with highs in the mid 70s and dew points only in the low to mid 50s! Get the pumpkin spice lattes ready for the crisp mornings ahead as lows Monday and Tuesday morning will only be in the low 50s! Wednesday is a bit warmer (highs 75 to 80 degrees) and features the next chance for rain and storms. A similar setup, although not as pronounced as today, is likely with another upper level trough over the Great Lakes and a surface cold front sweeping through. At this time, have maintained 20-50% chances for scattered rain and storms Wednesday, with the highest chances in the evening. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 102 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 MVFR to VFR conditions at both terminals today in the wake of a cold frontal boundary that moved through earlier this morning. Scattered showers and storms have developed over the area and did keep tempo mentioned for -TSRA for KFWA through 20z Sat as and also put tempo for -SHRA for KSBN through 21z with possibility for lake induced showers. Light northwesterly winds through the overnight hours before winds increase with gusts up to around 20 kts after 15z Sunday. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...Andersen  265 FXUS66 KPQR 221711 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1011 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Updated Aviation Discussion .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure moving over the area will send a weak cold front through the area today. Expect near average temperatures today and tomorrow. Chance for light rain shower along the coast, coast range and north of the WA/OR border. Ridging builds back into the area early next week, increasing temperatures back into the mid to upper 80s across the interior lowlands. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Friday...An upper level trough will continue to progress northeast today, sending a weak cold front through the area early Saturday. This will support temperatures near or slightly below average both today and Sunday in the upper 70s to low 80s across the interior lowlands. Surface pressure gradients tighten as the cold front moves through, supporting relatively gusty winds up to 20 mph inland and up to 25 mph along the coast. Strongest winds expected through the western Columbia River Gorge where gusts around 30 mph are expected with a 30-40% chance for isolated gusts around 35 mph Saturday afternoon. There is also a chance for light showers this evening and overnight as the trough axis passes overhead. Best chances for any precipitation will be along the coast and coast range and along and north of the WA/OR border. Most likely timing is between 5 PM Saturday through 5 AM Sunday. Zonal flow aloft develops Sunday as the upper level trough continues to trek northeast away from the region. Looking ahead into early next week, ensemble clusters favor ridging over the central CONUS and the PacNW. Warmer temperature are expected to return for Monday and Tuesday. Model spread for high temperatures between the 10th- 90th percentiles range from the low 80s to low 90s for the interior lowlands. Clusters favor another trough influencing the region by the middle of the week but exact timing and upper level pattern are uncertain but onshore flow and seasonable or below average temperatures would be favored. Currently, the 10th-90th percentiles range from the low 70s to low 80s. There is also no clear signal for any precipitation associated with the mid week trough. approximately 20-30% of members show very light rain possible during the Thursday- Friday timeframe but nothing significant at this time. -19 && .AVIATION...Through 18Z Sunday...An upper-level low currently offshore will continue moving north/northeast through the TAF period. This low has resulted in widespread MVFR conditions and southerly winds across the airspace. While the southerly winds are expected to persist, the MVFR marine stratus inland is expected to burn off over the next few hours and bring VFR conditions to all inland locations through at least 04Z-06Z Sunday. Afterwards, MVFR conditions are expected to return across all inland locations. Coastal locations will maintain widespread IFR/low-end MVFR conditions through the TAF period. There is a low probability (10-20%) that brief periods of VFR conditions could occur along the coast from around 22Z Saturday through 00Z Sunday. Gusts approaching 25 kt expected along the coast from around 20Z Saturday through around 06Z Sunday. KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR conditions will improve towards VFR through 20Z Saturday. Southerly winds expected to persist through the TAF period. Around 05Z-08Z MVFR conditions are expected to return and persist through the remainder of the TAF period. /42 && .MARINE...South to southwest winds continue today as a low pressure system moves over the northeast Pacific. A cold front moves through Saturday, bringing a 50-80% chance for maximum wind gusts to exceed 21 kt for the inner waters, including the Columbia River Bar. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the inner waters from 5 AM to 5 PM Saturday and for the Columbia River Bar from 11 AM to 5 PM Saturday. For the outer waters, chances are 20-50% with the highest values of that range between 10 and 30 NM. High pressure and northerly winds return by Sunday, with a 40-70% chance for northerly wind gusts to exceed 21 kts in the evening and continuing into Monday. Seas of 4-6 ft persist through the period. ~12 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ251>253. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  414 FXUS65 KRIW 221714 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1114 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increased moisture brings an increased chance of showers and storms across the area today. Some storms could have heavy rain, strong wind or hail. - The chance of showers and storms lingers through much of the week, although today looks the most active. - Temperatures will gradually decrease to near normal levels for much of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 141 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The monsoon has once again arrived across the area, I believe this is the third or fourth appearance so far. So far, it has behaved. We do have some light showers across mainly the western half of the area but nothing heavy so far. The main concern in the forecast will be the potential for heavy rain and possible strong thunderstorms today. Right now, in this meteorologists opinion, potential is mixed for if we will see widespread of either. In regards to heavy rain, the main factor will be the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. Dew points have been slow to rise so far, but they should this afternoon, rising into the 50s in portions of the Big Horn Basin as well as Johnson and Natrona Counties. Precipitable water values should also be rather high. The GFS, for example, has precipitable water values about 175 to 200 percent of normal. This had been overdone by around 15 to 20 percent the past few events though. Even with this, precipitable water values over 150 percent of normal look fairly likely. There will also be some forcing in the form of a shortwave moving in from the west. This should enhance chances for all areas, so everyone will have a chance. The best chance still looks to be in northwestern Wyoming, generally a 1 in 2 chance, and there is decent model agreement in this. As for severe thunderstorms, there looks to be a decent amount of instability. This is especially so in the favored portions of our area, mainly East of the Bighorn Range in Johnson and Natrona Counties. Lifted indices fall as low as minus 4 to minus 5 with close to 1500 J/Kg of surface CAPE here. There is also a decent amount of directional shear in this area. This, plus the ample moisture, may increase the hail threat in this area. We do have a marginal risk of severe weather in portions of Johnson and Natrona Counties, and this could be expanded westward with the 13Z update. All areas could have a thunderstorm but with less instability and shear most storms would be sub severe. However, there are some factors against possible hazards. In regards to flooding and thunderstorms, it is cloud cover. Much of the area, especially western Wyoming, is covered by clouds as I write this around midnight. If it stays mostly cloudy for much of the day, this could limit instability somewhat and decrease the chance of stronger thunderstorms. There will likely be some areas that will be sunnier though, especially further east. And there is one more mitigating factor for heavy rain and possible flooding. With the shortwave moving through, there will be some steering flow today. It won't be strong, but most areas will have 15 to 25 knots at 500 millibars which should keep storms moving somewhat. We continue to have a marginal risk of excessive rainfall, and persistent storms could still cause flooding. But it may decrease the chance somewhat. The shortwave should clear the area by midnight, but some showers will likely linger through the night. As for temperatures, more cloud cover should lower them around 5 to 8 degrees, but it will still be above normal for almost all areas. The forecast from Sunday through much of next week looks fairly similar. We will remain on the edge of the ridge. Some monsoonal moisture will stick around, with precipitable water values remaining above average through much of the period. However, they do look lower than today, so the chance of convection should be somewhat lower. Most guidance favors western Wyoming at this time. However, given the poor performance of the models in regards to timing and placement of the showers and storms, confidence in the details remains low. Temperatures will also cool off somewhat, back down to near to just slightly above normal levels for late August. There continue to be some indications of drier air moving in for the end of next week or next weekend, possibly shutting off the monsoon and bring a period of warm, but not really hot weather for the end of August. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1114 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the period. With increasing moisture across the area, all sites will have a chance of a shower or thunderstorm today between 19z and 03z, though some lingering showers may occur through about 06z. Gusty outflow winds 30 to 50 knots will be the main concern with the stronger storms, with brief MVFR or IFR conditions if a storm moves directly over. As with usual summer afternoon convection, placement is difficult to pinpoint, so PROB30 groups cover the chances today. Least chances (about 15%) at KLND and KRIW. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Wittmann  517 FXUS63 KIWX 221716 CCA AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 110 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and isolated storms possible east of I-69 this afternoon and evening. - Breezy today with northwest winds gusting as high as 25 to 30 mph. - 20-30% chances for scattered lake effect rain showers downwind of Lake Michigan tonight through Sunday. - Dangerous swimming conditions persist through the weekend on southern Lake Michigan. - Below normal temperatures and much lower humidity Sunday through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1237 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A typical early fall-like weekend is ahead with clouds, showers, breezy conditions, and cooler temperatures. A low pressure system is located over northern Lower Michigan with its attendant cold front positioned just west of IN-15 currently. Scattered showers and isolated storms can be seen on radar this afternoon, especially along and east of I-69, where a 500 mb shortwave is aiding in convective development as the front pushes east. Can't rule out an isolated strong storm or two (especially in northwest Ohio) as there is an area of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 700 J/kg DCAPE across northern Indiana and northwest Ohio but the likelihood of organized severe weather is low given marginal shear of only 20 kts and poor low/mid level lapse rates. In addition to showers and storms, a deepening pressure gradient on the backside of this system is expected to generate gusty northwest winds throughout this afternoon and evening. Northwest winds will be sustained around 10 to 15 mph with gusts as high as 25 to 30 mph until sunset. Northwest cyclonic flow and delta Ts of ~14C (water temps ~24C, 10C at 850mb tonight) should produce at least a weak lake effect response tonight with scattered showers overnight into Sunday morning in the vicinity of Lake Michigan. Showers should gradually increase in coverage across northern Indiana downwind of Lake Michigan into the afternoon on Sunday. It will be breezy again out of the northwest on Sunday and then light winds return Monday and Tuesday as the pressure gradient eases. Did bump up cloud cover and lower temps for tomorrow as this pattern typically produces more lake effect clouds downwind of Lake Michigan than the NBM picks up on. Dangerous swimming conditions are ongoing for southeast Lake Michigan beaches and are expected to continue through Sunday. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for La Porte and Berrien counties through 11 PM EDT Sunday. High swim risks are expected both days with northwest winds generating 3 to 5 ft waves. Strong rip and structural currents are also expected! If your weekend plans include heading to the beach, heed all warnings from lifeguards and stay out of the water! A dry, continental airmass from central Canada moves in later Sunday as high pressure builds across the Midwest and Great Lakes. Much lower humidity and several days of slightly below normal temperatures will make for refreshing early fall-like days Sunday through Tuesday with highs in the mid 70s and dew points only in the low to mid 50s! Get the pumpkin spice lattes ready for the crisp mornings ahead as lows Monday and Tuesday morning will only be in the low 50s! Wednesday is a bit warmer (highs 75 to 80 degrees) and features the next chance for rain and storms. A similar setup, although not as pronounced as today, is likely with another upper level trough over the Great Lakes and a surface cold front sweeping through. At this time, have maintained 20-50% chances for scattered rain and storms Wednesday, with the highest chances in the evening. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 102 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 MVFR to VFR conditionsat both terminals today in the wake of a cold frontal boundary that moved through earlier this morning. Scattered showers and storms have developed over the area and did keep tempo mentioned for -TSRA for KFWA through 20z Sat as and also put tempo for -SHRA for KSBN through 21z with possibility for lake induced showers. Breezy northwesterly winds this afternoon and again Sunday after 15z with highest gusts up to around 20 kts. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...Andersen  536 FXUS64 KLUB 221716 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1214 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening especially to the east of I-27. - Unseasonably hot temperatures will continue over the next several days. - Stronger breezes could result in elevated fire danger on Sunday and Monday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Upper air analysis highlights mainly northerly flow aloft in place over the region today, with an increase in midlevel moisture also noted as evidenced by scattered morning shower activity in vicinity of the Red River. A diffuse surface trough axis is also in place roughly along a line from near Amarillo towards Childress, and this troughing is progged to drift slowly southward through this afternoon and serve as a focus for thunderstorm development after about 3 PM. Most model solutions agree that storm coverage will be higher today than was observed yesterday, given the more plentiful moisture in place aloft along with large-scale support of a few modest shortwave disturbances and some jet-level difluence visible on water vapor imagery just to our northeast. After initially developing over the SE TX Panhandle, scattered outflow-propagating storms are expected to move south-southwestward through the rest of the afternoon and evening, although REFS/HREF probs generally keep the highest rain chances to the east of I-27. A couple of severe storms are certainly possible today, given very steep low level lapse rates and slightly improved deep-layer shear compared to days past. Very strong wind gusts and some large hail may occur with the strongest activity, as well as brief downpours. Regarding temperatures, most areas east of I-27 will exceed 105 degrees both this afternoon and again on Sunday as the ridging aloft slowly shifts eastward, with highs near 110 expected over the SE TX Panhandle. As such, Heat Advisories remain in effect for roughly the eastern half of our forecast area through the remainder of the weekend. Storm chances trend much lower for Sunday as the upper high pushes our plume of moisture mainly to our east, although a stray storm or two may still develop Sunday afternoon over the southern TX Panhandle. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Monday is still on track to be the hottest day of the upcoming week as the core of the ~596dam H5 ridge centers directly overhead. Highs near or just above 105 degrees are likely on the Caprock, with temperatures currently forecast to reach as high as 113 degrees over the SE TX Panhandle and adjacent Rolling Plains. Models have trended a bit faster with the southward retreat of the upper high Monday evening, with some shortwave energy possibly bringing a few late evening storms to the southern TX Panhandle, although a dry forecast is favored at the moment. Temperatures will remain well above normal Tuesday through late week, but will be a bit cooler compared to the intense heat of early week. Deterministic and ensemble guidance both favor a suppression of the upper ridge farther to our southwest midweek and beyond, with the resulting northwest flow aloft resulting in a more favorable setup for daily evening storm chances during the Tue-Fri timeframe. However, it is still too early to say with much confidence whether any beneficial rainfall will occur with this pattern shift. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions will prevail outside of convection. Check density altitude. There is achance for isolated thunderstorms through 06Z at all terminals. There is uncertainty on timing and coverage of storms and a mention will be left out of this TAF cycle, with the TAF amended as needed. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-030>032- 035>038-041>044. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...51  528 FXUS65 KVEF 221716 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1016 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Above normal temperatures continue through next week. * Isolated storm chances linger into early next week, with best chances in northwestern Arizona and the southern Great Basin. && .DISCUSSION...through Friday. Ensemble guidance keeps the ridge of high pressure centered generally over southern NM through the forecast period. Any "cooling" that would otherwise result from subtle height falls will largely be offset by increased vertical mixing thanks to the southwest flow aloft. As a result, temperatures remain fairly steady with just a subtle cooldown possible Monday and Tuesday as moisture tries to creep back into the southeastern half of the CWA. Latest forecast has highs 2-8 degrees above normal, with the greatest anomalies across the eastern half of the area (closer to the high). Overnight lows remain relatively oppressive across the Mojave Desert as values range from 80-92 degrees. This keeps major heatrisk in Death Valley, the Las Vegas Valley, the Colorado River Valley, and southern Mohave County through Sunday. After the subtle reprieve on Monday-Tuesday, major to extreme heatrisk looks to return to these locations. A shortwave moving into the PacNW will reshape the ridge, resulting in a transition from southerly to more southwesterly flow overhead. This will reduce moisture across most of the CWA and promote more isolated convective activity through the weekend. Best chances (10- 20%) across the southern Great Basin and northwestern AZ. An influx of moisture early next week may spur increased coverage across our southeastern areas, but uncertainty remains. From mid-week and beyond, moisture drops back down and stays at modest levels, at best promoting isolated storm chances in northwestern AZ. Given the limited moisture, main concerns with any convection will be gusty outflow winds and dry lightning. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Southeast winds around 8KT are expected into the early afternoon. Isolated gusts to 15KT are possible with the southeast winds. Around 21Z, winds will become south as gusts over 15KT become more frequent. Winds will diminish this evening around sunset with typical overnight wind patterns through Sunday morning. Similar winds to today are expected Sunday with as southeast winds in the morning become south with gusts to around 20KT in the afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop across the Southern Great Basin this afternoon but are expected to stay far away from the terminals and no local impacts are expected. Temperatures will exceed 100F through 04Z this evening, then again Sunday between 18Z and 04Z. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Increasing south to southeast winds are expected this afternoon in many locations, gusting 15-20KT at times. West to southwest winds will push into KDAG around 00Z and start gusting over 20KT. Winds will diminish around sunset and follow typical wind patterns overnight. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across the Southern Great Basin as well as in the Sierra, will need to watch if anything develops close enough to KBIH that it would impact the airport but currently do not think this will occur. Any precipitation does develop will diminish this evening with a dry night expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Woods AVIATION...Nickerson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  584 FXUS62 KCAE 221719 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 119 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Temperatures today were adjusted down due to cloud cover across the northern and western Midlands. Updated 18z Aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Seasonal temperatures with afternoon thunderstorm chances. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonal temperatures with afternoon thunderstorm chances. Drier air is beginning to work its way into the forecast area today with northwest flow strengthening. Temperatures were lowered for today due to persistent cloud cover across the northwestern half of the CWA. The clouds and drier air will limit convective coverage although lingering low-level moisture, especially in the southeastern portion of the forecast area, will support isolated showers and thunderstorms. By Sunday, NAEFS mean indicates PWATs will be around the tenth percentile, around an inch, and while can't completely rule out a stray thunderstorm with a strong moisture gradient near the southern portion of the forecast area, expected mostly dry conditions. While isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms will be possible early this week, increasing moisture mid to late week will likely lead to higher coverage of storms each afternoon with LREF probabilities around 50-70% of PWATs, greater than 1.75 inches, Wednesday through the end of the week and weak shortwaves leading to increased forcing. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Ceiling restrictions will continue to improve from mvfr back to vfr at all sites by 19z. Satellite showing continued breaking up of the mvfr stratus deck early this afternoon. Ceilings restrictions should break up by 19z, with vfr scattered to broken cumulus above 3kft expected for the remainder of the afternoon. An isolated shower can not be completely ruled out, especially over the far eastern Midlands and southern CSRA. While taf locations are expected to remain dry, kogb would be the only site that may need monitored for showers later this afternoon. Cumulus should dissipate after sunset, then mainly some thin cirrus overnight. Guidance does show the potential for mvfr visibilities around sunrise through 13z Sunday morning, and will handle that with a tempo to 4sm at most sites. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated storms each afternoon with higher coverage of storms expected by midweek. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...7 AVIATION...73  574 FXUS65 KPIH 221718 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1118 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms return to all of southern Idaho. Thunderstorms continue through the next seven days for many locations in southern Idaho. - Red Flag Warnings in place for scattered thunderstorms today for all of Central Idaho Dispatch area, Southern Idaho Dispatch area, and portions of the Eastern Idaho Dispatch area. - After record heat the past two days, clouds and precipitation will cool afternoon highs significantly today, then continue a weak overall cooling trend through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Long wave ridge will allow a weak shortwave to move through the mean southwest flow over the Gem State. This will enhance the thunderstorm activity in the already moist and unstable air over the forecast area. SPC has put nearly the entire forecast area in a marginal threat of severe thunderstorms (except a small wedge in Bear Lake County at the border with Utah. Thunderstorm threat is as high as 40 percent in the southern and eastern highlands. Could easily get G50KT for thunderstorm outflow. The increased moisture will mean more clouds and rainfall can cause evaporative cooling to bring the record temperatures of Thu and Fri down some 3 to 8 deg F. The cooling continues into Sun and Mon, but at a slower rate, with temperatures still in the upper 80s to around 90 on Sun and Mon. Overnight lows continue mild with the cloud cover. Wind stays weak today, but Sun will see 14 to 24 mph wind in the central Idaho mountains and the northwest side of the Snake River plain. Wind of this strength does not show up again until perhaps Thu. For other items in the extended (Tue through Fri), the strong upper level ridge is finally beaten down in some of the clusters on either Thu or Fri, but still only affects the forecast area in about 53 percent of the solutions. Upper level flow appears more southwest than south, which should cut down significantly on thunderstorm coverage during the extended period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1115 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Expect more showers and thunderstorms to potentially impact any of TAF sites through this evening. Gusts to or exceeding 45kts are possible with any given storm or outflow boundaries. We should see a lull overnight, but some of the higher resolution models have another round or two moving through early tomorrow morning. Chances are low enough that we will not include any mention (even PROB30) during that period. That may need to be adjusted later on. Expect VFR weather unless a heavy downpour directly impacts a TAF site or we see some blowing dust. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 211 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 An influx of moist and unstable air, including the possibilities of outflow from a thunderstorm hitting 58+mph, will reach nearly everywhere in the Fire Weather Forecast area. Coverage of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening peaks at 25 percent to 45 percent, so Red Flag Warnings were issued yesterday for abundant lightning. Thunderstorm coverage lowers considerably for Sun, but then may be up again on Mon. Fortunately, the moist air is pushing humidity readings up. Most readings will stay well above the 15 percent threshold for critical fire weather criterion. Cloud cover helps, as the high temperatures that lately have been setting records will be solidly cooler. The cooling and more humid trend continues through Mon. One offset to this is that the cloud cover will keep temperatures warmer at night, so recovery may not be as good, unless some wetting rains occur. Wind will be up on Sun, mainly over the central Idaho mountains and the Snake River plain/eastern Magic Valley. It should be enough to meet critical fire weather speeds, but the humidity should be too high for any sort of critical fire weather situation. More wind develops Thu afternoon, but temperatures should be even cooler than this weekend, which bodes will for humidity readings. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ410-422- 425-427-475-476. && $$ DISCUSSION...Messick AVIATION...Keyes FIRE WEATHER...Messick  730 FXUS63 KDMX 221721 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1221 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of patchy fog possible this morning. - A cooler, drier airmass settles over Iowa today, bringing comfortable conditions and slightly below average temperatures. - Rain and thunderstorm chances return to the state Late Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 125 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The cold front has cleared central Iowa, with a dry and comfortable airmass building in behind it. Quiet conditions established overnight will persist through Saturday afternoon. Patchy Fog remains possible early Saturday morning, though confidence in widespread coverage is limited due to dry air advecting in from the north. The highest probability for fog will reside along low river valleys and portions of southern Iowa, where boundary layer moisture and higher dew points linger. Surface high pressure expanding across Northern Plains will maintain comfortable conditions today, keeping dew points in the 50s to lower 60s. High temperatures will be noticeably cooler than Friday, dipping slightly below seasonal averages in a few locations; making for a great day to be outdoors. Quiet weather continues Saturday night, though cloud cover will gradually increase across western Iowa as a weak shortwave passes over the High Plains. Measurable precipitation is unlikely with this feature, but better chances for showers and thunderstorms arrive Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Iowa remains seated between a ridge centered over the Four Corners region and a trough over the Great Lakes. If either of these systems shift, that will change how far east or west moisture gets back into the area by Sunday night, which is when the next shortwave looks to move through, potentially bringing more precipitation chances into Sunday morning. At the moment, however, deterministic guidance is still struggling with the timing of this system. With this comes some degree of disagreement with placement, all of which will be better assessed in the coming days. This upper level pattern looks to remain rather stagnant, with the potential for additional shortwaves to move through the region next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 TAFs are VFR with no aviation impacts anticipated. There is a very low chance (<20%) of shallow fog around sunrise Sunday, but both probability and coverage/impact if it were to occur are too low for any TAF mention. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TDR LONG TERM...67 AVIATION...Lee  670 FXUS63 KFGF 221720 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1220 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. && .UPDATE... Issued at 329 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Near term/short term impacts are minimal with passing mid level CU, seasonal temperatures in the 70s to near 80. Forecast concern over the next 4 days continues to be on the potential for a few severe thunderstorms late Monday and potentially Tuesday. Monday signal in more reliable AI systems has backed off compared to 24hr ago, and this is primarily driven by less favorable timing of forcing/instability in relation to our our CWA. The trend is for a slower frontal arrival (more guidance keeps this west) and delay in better forcing from the shortwave trough. Deep layer/effective shear will be maximized in our area though during the afternoon/evening and as the front does approach elevated storms could support a hail threat. The mid/upper low shows more variance in track through Tuesday, with at least some ensemble guidance showing a closed mid level low and center of cold pool dropping over our northeast and eastern CWA and under that scenario there would be at least a conditional risk for weak tornadoes. The vast majority of ensemble guidance shows a weaker low center (more of an open wave) and a track farther north and east with only a minimal chance for showers/weak thunderstorms in our northeast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...Synopsis... NW flow continues to become more amplified the next few days with increasing ridging across the Rockies and high plains. Troughing off the Pacific coast looks to move ashore Saturday and flatten the ridge bringing increasing precipitation chances Monday and Tuesday. Ridging then returns for the mid and late week. Could see some strong to severe storms on Monday/Tuesday though there are still a some unknowns so wont speculate into the potential too much. Overall seasonal weather with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s each day and peak daily heat indices generally 80-85 making a it a comfortable stretch of late summer weather. - Today A shortwave is quickly traversing the northwest flow aloft with cold air advection behind yesterdays wave helping to steepen mid level lapse rates. Overall pretty skinny instability but reminiscent of a springtime northwest flow with a deepening CU field and the expectation for afternoon showers/thunderstorms once we reach the convective temp in the low to mid 80s this afternoon. Not likley to see high rainfall totals but a few locations in northwest Minnesota could squeak out a quick tenth. Severe weather is not expected with only 20-25kts of eff shear and 1000 j/kg of ML CAPE but some small hail is not out of the question. - Rain/Severe Chances Early Next Week Similar to yesterday AI ensembles agree strongly on the track of the wave through the canadian provinces on Monday afternoon/Tuesday morning with the Euro still the more progressive solution but the GFS is catching up as expected. Overall the expectation is for lee troughing east of the rockies with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 j/kg to support at least a wind and hail threat on Monday afternoon/evening across parts of the Dakotas. This does appear to evolve into a closed 500mb wave with closed isotherms as well within the low meeting the definition of a cold core low supporting a localized tornado threat in Saskatchewan and Manitoba Monday but given the track this appears to stay well north of our area. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period at all TAF sites. North winds are expected most of the day, generally at 7-12 knots. A few gusts to near 20 knots are possible at KFAR, KGFK, and KBJI. Heading into the evening, winds become light and variable. Skies remain clear to partly cloudy today, with only a few cumulus possible this afternoon during peak heating. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...DJR DISCUSSION...TT AVIATION...Lynch  767 FXUS64 KBMX 221722 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1222 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1219 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026 - Heat: Minor to Moderate HeatRisk will continue through the next week. Heat indices are forecast to remain below 105 degrees. - Storms: There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe storms across northwestern portions of Central Alabama this evening through early Sunday morning. Strong winds and heavy rainfall are the primary threats. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1219 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026 Water vapor imagery this morning reveals an upper level trough progressing across the eastern CONUS as an upper ridge builds in across the west. Drier air is beginning to work into the region with PWATs down to around 1.2" per the latest GOES TPW. This dry air combined with increasing subsidence will help promote mostly dry conditions through the weekend. With that said, several CAMs bring a line of convection into the state during the evening hours as a trailing shortwave rotates along the western periphery of the trough axis. Greatest chances will be across our northwestern counties, generally after 7 PM through early Sunday morning. Primary threats with this activity will be strong winds and heavy rainfall. As a result, SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe storms. After a brief lull in activity on Sunday, an active pattern returns next week as several shortwaves rotate between a ridge parked out to our west and a trough to our northeast. A stalled boundary along the Gulf coast will gradually lift north through the week, leading to increasing moisture across the southeast. By mid week, another upper trough deepens across the Great Lakes region while sending a cold front into Central Alabama sometime Thursday into Friday. As a result, we will see low to moderate (30-60%) chances for showers and storms at times through the work week. High temperatures this weekend will settle into the low to mid 90s for most. Drier air will help keep heat indices in check, generally 95-102 degrees. Increasing rain chances and cloud cover next week will help trim off a few degrees with highs in the upper 80s at times. Continued humid conditions will warrant a low to moderate heat risk for most through the next week. 95/Castillo && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026 VFR conditions are likely to prevail through this TAF cycle. Based on the latest CAMs, opted to include a PROB30 mention for TSRA from 03-07Z for the northern terminals. At this time, confidence is low as to just how much, if any, activity we see. Winds will remain light, generally around 5-7 knots through this TAF cycle. Fog probabilities appear to be low for Sunday morning as drier air moves into the region. Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage. 95/Castillo && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air filtering into the area will result in a decrease in relative humidity (35 to 45%) for most locations this weekend. However, wind speeds are expected to remain light, which should negate any significant fire weather concerns during this period. Moisture gradually begins to return early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 70 92 67 91 / 10 0 10 10 Anniston 70 91 67 89 / 10 0 10 20 Birmingham 73 93 71 90 / 10 10 10 20 Tuscaloosa 73 96 72 91 / 10 10 20 30 Calera 72 94 71 90 / 10 10 10 30 Auburn 72 92 71 88 / 0 10 10 30 Montgomery 73 97 73 93 / 0 10 10 40 Troy 70 97 71 92 / 0 20 10 40 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...95/Castillo AVIATION...95/Castillo  803 FXUS65 KPUB 221723 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1123 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Monsoon moisture will continue through late week then some drying. - Not much temperature change through the week. A bit cooler mid week and a bit of warming next weekend. - Storms today may be more towards late afternoon/evening. Can't rule out flash flooding at Aspen Acres but no strong signals to go with. One or two strong storms possible. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1204 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Early this morning quite a few showers were still ongoing across mainly the plains, with a few thunderstorms over the far eastern plains. This activity will linger into the early morning hours and should decrease around 2-3 am. Activity is likely being driven by the low level jet per latest guidance. Thunderstorms may be a bit later on developing later today, with the best chance of storms occurring over the Pikes Peak region, with the activity moving slowly east during the evening hours. The far southeast sections of the fcst area will likely remain dry today and this evening. HPC has the mtns and I-25 corridor region in marginal risk for excessive rainfall. A few of the storms late this afternoon and evening may be on the strong side, especially north of US50. Temperatures today over the plains will likely be a few degrees cooler today than yesterday. The valley and mountains will likely see similar temperatures today as they say yesterday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 1204 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Sunday will be somewhat similar to todays weather pattern. However storms may form a bit earlier in the day and we may see a bit less coverage over the plains during the evening hours. With less clouds over the plains Sunday, temps will likely be 2 to 3F warmer than today. The mtns and I-25 corridor region are once again in marginal risk for excessive rainfall. From Monday into late week, the monsoon pattern will continue over the region, and we will see scattered to likely storms over the mtns and isolated to scattered over the plains. Temps will cool a bit by mid week, but temps will slowly climb towards next weekend. The best day for the potential for some locally heavier rain (and potential flash flooding) may be mid week as a surface boundary will affect the pains/S mtns. A drier pattern is indicted by late week next weekend over the region as a much more zonal pattern develops, and this pattern will cut off the monsoon flow. 100 degree readings will be possible once again over the plains by next weekend, and fire weather concerns may increase as flow aloft increases somewhat. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1123 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Lighter winds at the start of this TAF period are expected to increase heading into the afternoon hours as diurnal mixing develops, with the strongest and most persistent gusts for KCOS and KPUB. Winds are anticipated to lessen again later tonight and become light and variable then through tomorrow morning. Dry conditions are expected at the start of this TAF period, with storms increasing in coverage this afternoon and evening. These storms may bring periods of heavy rainfall, reduced visibility, strong outflow winds, and lightning. With that said, any precipitation around is anticipated to dissipate during the overnight hours tonight. Otherwise, mid to high level clouds will persist through much of this TAF period. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for COZ079-080-086. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...HODANISH AVIATION...SIMCOE  881 FXUS61 KBGM 221725 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 125 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes made to the forecast at this time. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A broad upper level low moving southeastward into the area tonight into Sunday is expected to lead to unsettled weather into early next week. 2) High pressure builds in for a brief lull in wet weather Wednesday, then additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to return Thursday into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A broad upper trough will be setting up across the eastern U.S. this weekend with an upper low dropping southeastward out of Canada and becoming a closed low over the Great Lakes on Sunday. A surface low is expected to develop over the eastern Great Lakes region as well Saturday night into Sunday. These features are expected to be the main drivers of our weather into early next week. There is also a surface low developing near the mid- Atlantic coast today that will be sliding northeastward but most of the moisture from this is expected to pass by off to our south and east. Clouds will increase from south to north and there can be some isolated showers this afternoon and evening, but shower chances will increase later tonight into Sunday as an embedded upper shortwave rotates into the area and the upper trough becomes more neutral to slightly negatively tilted as it shifts east. Chances for thunder look to be pretty low this afternoon and evening with modest instability (500 to locally 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE), but little in the way of MLCAPE and bulk shear. Mid- level lapse rates are poor as well, so thunder was reduced to just a slight chance during this time. The surface low over the eastern Great Lakes is expected to lift north-northeast, passing just north and west of the CWA Sunday. As it shifts north toward the Ontario/Quebec border, it will drag a surface cold front across the region Sunday (timing of the frontal boundary is a bit uncertain). The chance for thunder is a little better on Sunday as 0-6km shear noticeably increases to 35-50 knots across the CWA and mid-level lapse rates are a bit higher around 6- 6.5 C/km as well. MUCAPE still looks to average 500-1000 J/kg, but the NAM is a little more bullish east of I-81. In the wake of the frontal passage, model guidance suggests there can be a brief break in shower activity as a dry slot develops Sunday evening. By Monday, the 500mb closed low moves overhead. This combined with with cooler air aloft moving over the Great Lakes with 850mb temps falling to +6C to +10C and a west to northwest flow in place, additional showers are expected to develop. As the upper low lifts NE Tuesday, there could be a few lingering showers downwind of Lake Ontario near and north of the NYS Thruway before drier conditions return. Near to slightly below average temperatures are expected this weekend before turning noticeably cooler Monday with the upper low overhead with highs in the 60s and low 70s. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure briefly builds in Tuesday night into Wednesday with dry conditions. Then Thursday into Friday, model guidance suggests a similar pattern to this weekend setting back up with a potential low moving up from the south and another upper trough pushing in from the west that would bring the chance for additional showers and thunderstorms. As of now these features appear to be more progressive and look to move out of the region by next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Lowering cloud bases and CIGs move in from the south later this evening, with MVFR to IFR conditions expected at all terminals. IFR CIGs are forecast to spread north over much of the forecast area late tonight and early Sunday morning. There will also be increasing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms heading into tonight and Sunday morning as a frontal boundary approaches. These could bring occasional IFR visibility restrictions and gusty/erratic wind gusts at times. Outlook... Sunday...Showers and potential thunderstorms with associated restrictions. Monday...Scattered showers at the Central NY terminals with associated restrictions possible. Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJG AVIATION...KL  837 FXUS63 KFSD 221724 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1224 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slightly cooler weather for the weekend. Today will remain dry with moderate rain chances (40-70%) returning to portions of the area Sunday through Sunday night. Rainfall amounts could exceed a tenth to a quarter of an inch. - Additional chances for rain, and potentially strong to severe thunderstorms (5-15%), are possible through next week, though details are uncertain. Continue to check the latest forecast for the most up to date information. && .UPDATE... Issued at 420 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A quiet night continues and thunderstorms have remained south of the forecast area as anticipated. Light winds and optimized radiational cooling have allowed for shallow/patchy fog development in portions of northwest Iowa. Will monitor trends, but at this time, do not expect any headlines will be needed. Today should be a pleasant day with abundant sunshine. While there may still be a slight haze from smoke aloft, models show lower concentrations working into the area through the day. Daytime rain/storm chances for Sunday remain focused mainly west of the James River Valley, with increased chances expanding east through the evening into Monday morning. SPC has maintained a Level 1 of 5 risk for severe storms in areas west of I-29 for this activity, with isolated damaging winds/large hail possible. However, model soundings would also indicate a potential for locally heavier rainfall with moistening profiles leading to precipitable water approaching 2 inches. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Quiet conditions persist this afternoon as temperatures have warmed to the 70s and 80s across the area. Quiet conditions are expected to continue for the rest of the day as the cold front has fully pushed through the area. This will keep storm chances south and west of the forecast area. Can't rule out the low possibility (less than 20%) of a shower or weak storm passing along and south of the Missouri River this afternoon, evening, and potentially into the overnight hours. Should this occur, the chance for a severe storm is low. Surface ridging will begin to slide into the forecast area tonight, resulting in light and variable winds with lows falling to the upper 50s to low 60s. Patchy fog is again on the table but with drier air in place, think that any fog that does develop will once again be tied to a few river valley's. Saturday begins the weekend on the quiet side as high pressure pushes through the Northern Plains. High temperatures will be a bit cooler in the upper 70s to low to mid 80s, with a continuation of light northerly winds. This will make for a wonderful Saturday, perfect for outdoor activities! Rain chances will increase late Saturday night through Sunday as a weak shortwave trough rounds the top of a building upper level ridge. This will result in increasing chances for rain across the area for the day on Sunday. Cloud cover with the associated chances for rain will keep high temperatures a bit cooler in the upper 70s to low 80s. While some showers are possible during the morning timeframe, the highest chances for rain will come Sunday evening and night as the main shortwave pushes through the area. The ensembles show a broad 40-70% chance for rainfall totals to exceed a tenth of an inch. Soundings show some elevated instability in place so thunderstorms are possible, though severe storms are not expected at this time due to weak shear profiles. With non-severe storms on the table, rainfall amounts could be locally higher depending on how storms track. An active pattern continues aloft for next week. Medium range guidance shows shortwave troughs continuing to push through the Northern Plains within the northwest flow regime. This will lead to chances for rain almost every day next week. However, the ensembles show a large variance in rainfall probabilities due to the differences in these upper level features. Latest machine learning (ML) guidance does show low probabilities (5-15%) for severe weather throughout the week. Details for severe weather remains uncertain so continue to check the forecast for the most up to date information. Aside from rain and storm chances, high temperatures look to remain in the upper 70s and 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR through the period. Spotty showers and very isolated thunderstorms will be possible in south central SD late tonight into Sunday morning. Some patchy low land fog will be possible late tongiht into Sunday morning. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JH DISCUSSION...Meyers AVIATION...08  849 FXUS63 KGID 221724 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1224 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms arrive from the north early this morning. The severe threat has decreased, but a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out through 9am. - Dry conditions return for the rest of the daytime today. Weakening showers and storms arrive from the west late tonight into Sunday morning. - Scattered showers and storms continue on Sunday, but severe weather is unlikely. - Off and on chances for rain and thunderstorms continue through next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Scattered thunderstorms have developed over northern Nebraska are slowly drifting southward. This is expected to be the primary feature to watch through the morning hours, although some isolated showers/storms cannot be ruled out further south/southwest as well. As of 130am, these elevated storms remain fairly disorganized and unimpressive, but there is still potential for them to briefly organize/intensify as they slide through the area in the 3-9am timeframe. After these storms depart, the rest of the day looks to be dry with seasonable temperatures and light winds. Scattered showers and storms return from the west late tonight...most likely after 2am. These storms should be on a weakening trend as they move into an increasingly less favorable thermodynamic environment. As such, severe weather is unlikely. CAMs suggest that scattered showers/storms could persist through the daytime on Sunday. Lingering cloud cover will keep temperatures (and instability) on the lower side. Therefore the severe threat remains low. The continued northwesterly flow pattern will keep daily chances for rain and thunderstorms in the forecast through next week. Based on the global ensembles, Tuesday night appears to be the most favorable day for thunderstorms (and perhaps a few severe storms), but overall details remain very uncertain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 346 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Currently through the rest of this afternoon... Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to make their way southeast across the forecast area today...a trend that will continue though mid-late afternoon hours. Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data showing this activity being driven by a weaker shortwave disturbance sliding out of central SD and into NNErn NE. This disturbance is embedded in larger scale northwesterly flow set up across the Central/Nrn Plains...between ridging extending northward out of the Desert SW and broad troughing across the Great Lakes/Midwest region, while a larger area of low pressure spins off the Pac NW coast. The surface pattern across the forecast area has been a bit of a messy one throughout the day...between just an overall weaker pressure gradient along with any even weak outflow boundaries produced by this activity today...winds are variable in direction. Most speeds have been around 5-10 MPH, a few spots closer to any storms have had gusts closer to 25-30 MPH at least for a brief time. For the rest of this afternoon-early evening...main story will continue to lie with continued potential for scattered showers/storms pushing SE through and eventually out of the forecast area. Near/out ahead of this activity, SPC meso page showing MLCAPE values exceeding 2000 j/kg, with deeper layer/effective shear of at least 30kts. Storms working their way SE will continue to have the potential to be strong/severe...one thing working against activity is that the upper level disturbance/lift just isn't overly strong, which isn't helping overcome some lingering capping. Large hail/damaging winds would be the primary threats. One good thing about the scatterednature of this activity is that so far, areas that had been on the wetter side over the past few days are getting a chance to dry up a bit. Later tonight on into this weekend... Once this ongoing activity slides off to our SE, models continue to show a relative lull across the area through the evening hours. Winds should be turning more east-northeasterly, with models showing an area of sfc low pressure setting up off to our west- southwest...but speeds look to remain on the lighter side overall. A few models try to bring another round of isolated activity back into the area already by around 06Z, but there is more model support for the timing of the next round of showers/storms to be closer to/after 08Z or so. Models showing this activity developing into a NW-SE orientated swath across the forecast area...tied to another weaker, mainly mid-level shortwave disturbance moving through, aided some by frontogenetical forcing closer to 850mb. Hi-res models showing this elevated activity could have CAPE values around 1500 j/kg to tap into, with deeper layer shear around 30-40kts possible...keeping the potential for strong-severe storms in place. Entire CWA remains in the SPC Day 1 Slight Risk area through tonight...large hail and damaging winds remain the primary threats, though additional heavy rainfall rates are not out of the question as well. Not out of the question that some activity could linger into the morning hours on Saturday...and uncertainty in the exact timing of that departure is not high...but outside of that models are in pretty good agreement showing the daytime hours being dry. Aloft, models showing continued northwesterly flow across the area...if anything that low pressure system currently off the Pac NW starts pushing inland, giving the main ridge axis a bit of an eastward push. Winds look to remain on the lighter side around 10-15 MPH, remaining easterly. Forecast highs are in the mid-upper 80s. Models showing another upper level shortwave disturbance riding around the edge of the ridge axis Saturday evening through Sunday AM...bringing another chance for showers/storms to the entire forecast area. The area is currently not outlooked in the SPC Day 2 outlook (just in general thunder)...with models currently showing the better axis of instability setting up just off to our west, and deeper layer shear is on the weaker side. Confidence in precipitation chances Sunday-Sunday night is on the lower side (outside of any lingering activity from Sat night)...with NBM PoPs mainly clipping northern and eastern portions of of the forecast area. Models not showing any notable change in the upper level pattern...and winds turn more southerly as sfc troughing develops over the High Plains. Forecast highs are more in the upper 70s for central/eastern areas, low-mid 80s further west...but that will be dependent on timing of any lingering precipitation. Next week... Periodic thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast as we get into the new work week...but honestly, not a ton of confidence at this point in the timing/tracking of any of the upper level disturbances driving these chances. Models show varying amplitude of the main upper level ridging through the week...so a stronger northward push of the ridge could push better precip chances out of the area, a more zonal pattern could bring more chances...plenty of details to iron out in the coming days. Not seeing any notable swings in temperatures either way through the week...with forecast highs mainly in the mid 80s-low 90s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Have VFR conditions continuing through this TAF period...with much of the period being dry. Exception to that dry forecast looks to be latetonight-early Sunday morning...when another upper level disturbances brings additional precipitation chances to the forecast area. Some uncertainty still remains with the overall coverage and the exact timing, so kept things in a PROB30 group at this point, running from 09-15Z. Winds the rest of this afternoon expected to remain easterly, with speeds topping out around 10 MPH...then turning more light/variable this evening and tonight. After sunrise Sunday, winds turn more southeasterly, again with speeds around 10 MPH. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Mangels DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...ADP  922 FXUS62 KKEY 221726 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 126 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Conditions remain somewhat favorable for an island cloud line and associated waterspouts this afternoon. - Rain and thunder chances will gradually return to near normal by early to middle of next week. - Highs in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s suggest afternoon heat indices will peak at 105 to 108 degrees. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1326 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the afternoon hours. Light southeasterly winds will persist across the Keys near 5 knots. Isolated showers or a thunderstorm may be able to develop near the terminals. There is low confidence that a cloud line may form north of the larger islands of the Lower Keys in the late afternoon due to the light southeasterlies. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 431 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A weak frontal boundary will stall along the Gulf Coast region today. It appears that deeper moisture content will remain focused just to our north/northwest closer to the convergent axis while latest forecast soundings and short term guidance suggests our PWATs will remain near the 10th to 25th percentiles for today, ranging from 1.4-1.6". This localized pocket of drier air is currently viewable on the GOES-E Split Window product and will likely be the primary limiting factor for our rain chances today. Our winds will remain on the weaker side with a general southeasterly component due to being within influence of the western periphery of the North Atlantic ridge, but winds may become variable at times this afternoon in which case conditions could become somewhat conducive for waterspouts if cloud line formation is able to occur. Otherwise, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms across the Upper Keys due to weak low-level speed convergence over the Bahamas which may support isolated thunderstorm develop west of Andros Island this afternoon. Any development that occurs may drift into the eastern Straits of Florida and towards the Upper Keys. This setup will remain largely unchanged through Sunday and into next week due to the stagnant upper-level pattern. With mostly sunny skies and rain chances below-normal, afternoon heat indices along the island chain should easily reach the 105-108 degree range with highs in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. Moisture advection early next week should bring the return of near- normal, to perhaps above-normal, rain chances, particularly as southeasterly flow becomes better established and the forecast area becomes better aligned with the zone of weak low-level speed convergence. && .MARINE... Issued at 1040 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a split ridge pattern remains in place across the Florida Keys coastal waters. This will promote generally light to gentle southeast to south breezes through Sunday, becoming variable at times during the afternoon hours. While North Atlantic ridging builds westward, southeasterly to easterly breezes will become more established for Sunday night through the middle of next week, becoming gentle and at times moderate during the overnight hours. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JR Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest  904 FXUS62 KTAE 221725 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 125 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 121 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again for this afternoon and evening, mainly across Florida and far southern Georgia. The strongest storms are expected to produce wind gusts of 40-60 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rain. - A typical summertime pattern is expected for next week with highs in the mid 90s and isolated to scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening. A gradual increase in rain chances is expected later in the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1039 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 No significant changes to the forecast this morning. Not quite as hot today as the past several days, with no heat products necessary. Best chances for storms this afternoon still appear to target a southwest to northeast corridor stretching from near Mexico Beach into South Central Georgia, kicking off by mid- afternoon. MLCAPE in the 2500-3000j/kg range and DCAPE ~800j/kg will support a few strong to marginally severe storms this afternoon within this corridor as well. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 For today, an upper level shortwave will bisect our area from northeast to southwest. Therefore, rain chances will be highest for areas from Panama City to Tifton and southward. While soundings aren't quite as impressive today compared to yesterday, some gusty winds could still occur with the strongest storms. Drier air will sneak into our area as well, which should keep us below Heat Advisory levels. It will still be hot with highs in the lower 90s and heat index values of 100-107. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Sunday will be the driest day with precipitable water values dropping to the 1.2-1.5 inch range. Thus, little coverage of showers and storms is expected for Sunday. What little activity occurs will likely be near the sea breeze. Highs will still be quite warm in the mid to upper 90s, but the lower dewpoints will keep most heat indices below the heat advisory of 108F, with the possible exception of along the coast. For Monday, we'll have to watch if a shortwave rounds the ridge to our west and enters our area during the afternoon, which may help spark better coverage of showers and storms. Highs will still be in the mid 90s. Through much of the remaining part of the upcoming week, the ridge will remain off to our west, and we'll remain in northwesterly flow aloft. So, we'll continue to monitor for any ridge-riding disturbances, but our rain chances will gradually increase with a return to a summer pattern. Highs remain in the low to mid 90s with heat index values of 102-108. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 121 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Afternoon thunderstorms activity most likely to impact KTLH and KVLD through early evening. Have remove prob30 from KDHN and KECP with lower risk at those terminals attm. Have left in some limited BR at northern terminals overnight given some slightly dryer air filtering in just above the surface. && .MARINE... Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Scattered storms are expected for today with gusty winds and brief waterspouts are possible in the stronger storms. Otherwise, mainly gentle to occasionally moderate southwesterly breezes will continue over the next several days with seas around 1-2 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Generally light west to southwest transport winds will continue through today, then become more variable on Monday. Dispersions will remain good overall each afternoon. Scattered showers and storms are expected again this afternoon, but decreasing coverage is anticipated for Sunday. Gusty, erratic winds and dangerous lightning strikes will be possible. Drier air will move in on Sunday, but RH values will stay above critical levels. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Locally heavy downpours will be possible with the storms this afternoon with isolated areas receiving a few inches of rainfall in a short period of time. This would lead to some nuisance to isolated flash flood concerns, particularly in low-lying or poor drainage areas. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 74 97 74 96 / 40 10 10 40 Panama City 78 93 78 92 / 10 10 10 40 Dothan 73 97 72 95 / 10 10 10 40 Albany 73 97 72 96 / 20 10 10 20 Valdosta 72 97 72 97 / 20 10 10 40 Cross City 74 93 74 94 / 30 40 10 30 Apalachicola 78 92 79 92 / 20 30 10 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM....DVD AVIATION...Camp MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...DVD  943 FXUS64 KJAN 221726 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous heat stress is expected across portions of the forecast area over the next several days. - Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible this evening into early tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 This afternoon through Monday: Another hot afternoon is expected as dangerous heat conditions continue across the region. Highs in the upper 90s/near 100 degrees with heat indices between 105-110F west of I-55. A Heat Advisory will remain in effect until this evening. In addition to hot conditions, a disturbance from the Central Plains will push through late this afternoon. Combining with daytime heating to provide thunderstorm chances north of I-20. A Slight (2 out of 5) risk for severe weather for extreme northwest MS (Bolivar, Sunflower, Leflore,and Grenada counties) and a marginal (1 out of 5) risk north of I-20. Primary hazard of concern will be damaging wind gusts. Persistent hot/humid conditions will continue Sunday. Dangerous heat conditions is expected with greatest heat stress over the southwest where heat indices reach 110 degrees are expected. Another heat advisory will be issued on Sunday for all of our northeast LA parishes and portions of southwest/west/central/southeast MS. A weak frontal boundary will push southward, briefly "cooling" temps to the lower 90s with heat indices near 105 for Monday. Tuesday through Saturday: High pressure will retrograde towards the Southwest CONUS with a trough axis setting up across the Southern CONUS. As a result, northwest flow across the area will allow a few weak disturbances to increase afternoon rain chances throughout the week. Heat and humidity will be on the rebound as heat indices begin to increase to 110 degrees west of I-55. Heat headlines and advisories will likely be needed as the week progress. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period at all sites along and south of the Interstate 20 corridor. Northern TAF sites will have a greater chance for showers and thunderstorms generally between 23Z today and 06Z Sunday. Brief restrictions to visibility or ceilings will be possible in addition to gusty winds with stronger storms. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 74 98 74 92 / 20 10 30 60 Meridian 73 98 73 92 / 10 10 10 50 Vicksburg 74 98 74 92 / 10 10 10 50 Hattiesburg 74 99 74 94 / 0 10 10 50 Natchez 75 99 75 95 / 0 10 10 20 Greenville 74 97 74 93 / 40 10 40 60 Greenwood 72 96 72 91 / 40 10 40 60 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025- 034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>064-072. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016- 023>026. AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. && $$ SW/NF  945 FXUS64 KLZK 221726 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 -Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the state this afternoon through the late evening hours. -Damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe weather hazard across Arkansas through tonight. -Very hot temperatures will remain in place across the southern half of the state through this evening. -Relatively cooler temperatures will be seen from Sunday through much of the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The continued trend of northwesterly flow aloft over Arkansas will remain. An upper lvl shortwave progged to move over the state will allow a weak front to drop down into Arkansas by early afternoon and track southward across the state. The airmass ahead of this advancing weak cold front will be hot and humid with plenty of CAPE allowing for the expected development of scattered thunderstorms across the state between early this afternoon into late this evening. The Storm Prediction Center has designated the entire state of Arkansas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather today with the main hazards possible as damaging wind gusts and a few instances of large hail with any storm that does manage to become severe. Before the anticipated arrival of the weak cold front and associated scattered convection, high temperatures are expected to reach or exceed 100 degrees across most of central and southern Arkansas. A challenging high temperature forecast for today as locations across the state, especially in central and southern Arkansas will likely experience compression heating just ahead of the advancing front where temperatures will quickly, but briefly rise a few degrees before the frontal boundary overtakes a location. For this reason and overall trends during this heatwave have trended toward NBM 75% and NBM 90% values. For the remainder of the forecast period, from Sunday through the upcoming workweek, expect hot temperatures to persist with a few days of relief possible which would lower temperatures a tad to normal values for this time of the year as multiple weak frontal boundaries are anticipated to move across the state which will promote appreciable POP chances (expected on Monday) and modest POP chances (on Wednesday into Wednesday Night). && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions will be in place through much of the period. This could be interrupted at times from 22/21z through 23/08z as isolated to scattered storms are expected to develop along a weak front. This activity is expected to originate across north- central Arkansas before moving southeast across portions of central, eastern and southern Arkansas. Strong and erratic wind gusts could be seen at or near area terminals impacted by TS activity. Away from the TS activity, sfc winds will remain variable through the period at generally less than 10 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 71 94 70 90 / 20 0 50 50 Camden AR 72 99 73 96 / 30 10 20 20 Harrison AR 68 89 68 89 / 20 20 60 30 Hot Springs AR 73 97 73 96 / 20 10 30 20 Little Rock AR 74 96 74 94 / 30 10 50 40 Monticello AR 74 97 75 93 / 30 10 30 50 Mount Ida AR 71 96 72 97 / 20 10 20 10 Mountain Home AR 69 90 68 88 / 20 10 60 30 Newport AR 71 93 71 90 / 30 0 40 50 Pine Bluff AR 72 96 72 93 / 20 10 40 50 Russellville AR 72 94 72 95 / 20 10 40 30 Searcy AR 71 94 71 91 / 20 0 50 50 Stuttgart AR 73 95 73 92 / 30 10 50 60 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ032-039-042>046- 052>057-062>069. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...67  038 FXUS63 KABR 221729 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1229 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly dry conditions will continue through next Wednesday with temperatures around average for this time of year. - There is a 30-60% chance for showers and thunderstorms during the day Sunday into early Sunday evening over central SD, expanding to northeastern SD/west central MN Sunday night while increasing to a 50-70% chance. - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather Sunday night over much of central to northeastern SD. Brief heavy rain, lighting, and strong winds to around 60 mph will be the main concern. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Update for the 18Z aviation discussion below. UPDATE Issued at 1040 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The current forecast looks good overall. No major changes planned at this time. UPDATE Issued at 616 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Update for 12Z Aviation Discussion below. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 113 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the 60s with winds out of the north to northeast at generally less than 10 mph. Today will be pretty similar to the last few days with some showers and maybe some weak thunderstorms across central SD after midnight and into Sunday. These storms are expected to continue through the day Sunday, with a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms. This outlook may be upgraded in future forecasts. The main threats look to be hail and wind. The NAM Nest in particular looks to have a bit of a bowing formation to the storms later in the evening which could produce some stronger winds. The environment for those storms will be rather moist. PWAT values are again in the 99th to 99.5th NAEFS percentile and 1.5" over central SD. This could lead to some heavy rainfall during storms. Models are starting to increase MLCAPE with generally 1100-1200 J/kg. Lapse rates have actually come down a little in deterministic models. Looking at Monday, PWAT isn't as impressive but MLCAPE values are between 1200 and 1500 J/kg with lapse rates between 7 and 7.5 C/km. Temperatures throughout the period will remain around average with highs in the 80s. Not too much in the way of smoke today, but there is a narrow band of some increased concentrations over the Missouri River valley. This would just bring a slight haze to the skies, nothing is expected to reach the surface. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Prevailing VFR conditions can be for all terminals through the valid taf period. Will maintain a PROB30 for showers around the KPIR area between 11-15Z. More widespread showers and thunderstorms may impact KMBG toward the end of the taf period. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...17 DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...17  049 FXUS63 KICT 221729 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1229 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periodic chances for off-and-on thunderstorms early this morning through next week, especially during the evening, night, and morning hours. - Mostly near to above normal temperatures through at least the next 7-10 days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 THUNDERSTORM CHANCES: Per deterministic and ensemble consensus, anomalous high pressure is expected to remain anchored over the southern to southwest CONUS through at least next week, sending periodic shortwaves over Mid- America in a NW flow aloft regime. This type of pattern will support periodic off-and-on thunderstorm chances through next week, mainly during the evening-night-morning hours. However, confidence is low on finer details, namely exactly when/where thunderstorm activity will track and how widespread it'll be. For overnight through this morning, one of those previously mentioned ripples in the upper flow is expected to approach the region from the northwest, which should support a gradual uptick in showers/thunderstorms across central and eastern Kansas, as 800- 600mb warm advection increases. Modest instability combined with decent directional shear may yield a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of dime-quarter size hail and 60 mph winds, along with locally heavy rainfall. Activity should exit southern to southeast KS by around early afternoon. The next chance of showers/thunderstorms looks to arrive later tonight (Saturday night) through Sunday morning, mainly northwest of the KS Turnpike, as another ripple in the upper flow approaches from the northwest. While widespread severe weather isn't expected, a few strong to marginally severe storms can't be ruled out. Additional thunderstorm chances look to arrive Sunday night through early Monday, mainly along and east of I-135. As previously mentioned, these periodic thunderstorm chances look to persist just about every day through next week, mainly during the evening-night-morning hours. Seasonable instability combined with decent directional shear should yield a continued strong to severe thunderstorm threat, with wind/hail being the primary threats, along with locally heavy rain. TEMPERATURES: With the stout upper ridge remaining anchored within fairly close proximity to the Kansas region, near to above average temperatures are expected through at least the next 7-10 days, possibly longer. Afternoon through early evening heat indices look to be in the 95 to 105 degree range, highest over south-central and southeast KS. The "coolest" day looks to be Sunday, with highs possibly as cool as the mid 80s over east-central KS, with 90s further west/south across central and southern KS. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 An area of showers and thunderstorms continue to move across portions of southeast KS, including the CNU area. This activity will remain at CNU through 19Z before VFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail through much of the period with easterly winds near 10 kt. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out near 12Z across central KS but confidence is much too low for inclusion at this time. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...BRF  986 FXUS63 KLOT 221727 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1227 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to widely scattered shower or storm possible (15-20% chance) this afternoon, mainly near Lake Michigan. - Dangerous swimming conditions expected at Porter County Lake Michigan beaches today, then at all Indiana and Cook County Lake Michigan beaches late tonight and Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A cold front is currently analyzed roughly from a Chicago to Galesburg line early this morning and is continuing to slowly drift south and east out of our forecast area. Generally speaking the better shower and thunderstorm coverage ahead of the front has been in central IL, but a couple of showers have been festering in southern Newton, Jasper, and Benton counties. These showers may briefly produce a rouge lightning strike prior to exiting these areas over the next hour, but otherwise dry conditions are expected for the rest of the night. In the wake of the cold front, winds will become northwesterly and gradually increase in speed through the morning with gusts expected to peak around 20-25 mph (locally up to 30 mph) this afternoon. These northwest winds will build waves on Lake Michigan today and result in dangerous swimming conditions, especially into Porter County, IN beaches. As wind directions become more northerly tonight, the large waves are forecast to pivot westward into Lake (IN) County and Cook County beaches overnight tonight and will persist through Sunday evening. As a result, a Beach Hazard Statement remains in effect for Porter County, IN starting at 10 AM today and lasting through Sunday evening with new Beach Hazard Statement issued for Lake (IN) and Cook Counties starting late tonight through Sunday evening. If planning to head to the beach today make sure to check the surf conditions and remember to stay dry when waves are high! Aside from the breezy north-northwest winds today, mostly dry conditions are expected as drier air filters into the region. However, broad upper troughing over the Great Lakes is expected to linger through much of today and will allow the shortwave trough in northern WI to pivot overhead this afternoon. While overall moisture looks to be meager to say the least, forecast soundings continue to show some modest instability and some low- level moisture lingering near Lake Michigan which may be sufficient to kick off isolated to widely scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm this afternoon (15-20% chance). That said, no severe weather is expected today and any showers/storms that do develop should wane around or shortly after sunset. Otherwise, expect mostly to partly cloudy skies with seasonably cool temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. The upper troughing will gradually shift into the eastern Great Lakes tonight as high pressure builds into the Midwest. This will result in completely rain-free conditions for Sunday, Monday and most likely Tuesday. However, continued northwest flow will keep temperatures on the cooler side for this time of year with highs Sunday and Monday in the mid to upper 70s and overnight lows in the 50s to around 60. Temperatures are forecast to moderate a bit on Tuesday as winds turn more southerly, but highs still look to top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s at best. While we enjoy a well deserved break in the weather, another shortwave trough is forecast to be traversing across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains early next week before pivoting into the Great Lakes towards the middle of the week. Guidance continues to show that a cold front should develop ahead of this shortwave and is progged to move through the region sometime during the Wednesday to Thursday timeframe. While there is overall good agreement on this evolution amongst ensemble and deterministic guidance, there is a lot of uncertainty around when exactly the wave and associated front will arrive in northern IL and northwest IN thus making this part of the forecast lower confidence. Bottom line expect to see increasing shower and thunderstorm chances towards the middle portion of next week and keep checking back for more specifics as we get closer in time. Though, temperatures should also be increasing towards more typical late August readings ahead of this system too. Yack && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A few isolated showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm are possible this afternoon, primarily east of the Chicago terminals. If confidence increases in coverage, then TAFs may need to be amended to include a VCSH for a few hours this afternoon. Otherwise, look for VFR conditions through the TAF cycle. Northwest winds will gust to around 20 mph this afternoon, likely easing and losing gustiness as sunset approaches. Lake breeze will develop this afternoon and move through GYY resulting in a wind shift to lighter NE. Lake breeze is expected to hug the shore over northeast IL remaining east of ORD and MDW through the afternoon. Toward sunset, as winds diminish, the the lake breeze will probably make a run westward toward ORD/MDW. Best chance of a wind shift to easterly looks to be at MDW, but can't be ruled out at ORD. If showers do develop near and over the lake this afternoon, outflow from the showers could provide the lake breeze an earlier westward push inland. Not out of the question this could threaten a temporary easterly wind shift at MDW and possibly even ORD later this afternoon. - Izzi && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Sunday evening for ILZ103-ILZ104. IN...Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Sunday evening for INZ001. Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for INZ002. LM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for Wilmette Harbor to Calumet Harbor IL-Calumet Harbor to Gary IN. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Sunday for Gary to Burns Harbor IN-Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  235 FXUS62 KFFC 221731 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 131 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New 18Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy dense fog will reduce visibility to less than 1 mile across parts of North Georgia this morning. - A surface boundary will spark additional showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across portions of south-central Georgia. - Drier conditions on Sunday will be followed by a return to low daily rain chances for most from Tuesday onward. - Seasonal, less oppressive heat returns to North Georgia today and areawide by Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 227 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Currently: Much quieter tonight compared to this time yesterday. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms linger in the vicinity of Columbus and south of Macon but these are on the downward trend. A surface front bisects the forecast area with drier air starting to filter in behind it as noted by latest WV imagery. Temperatures are still warm thanks to high cirrus with readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. Low clouds and patchy fog are likely this morning with improvements expected at or shortly after sunrise. Precipitation Trends: The surface front will continue to push through the forecast area today as a large upper troughing digs eastward towards the Atlantic Coast. Showers and thunderstorms will largely be focused along and south of the frontal boundary for this afternoon -- namely along and south of a line from Columbus to Sandersville. Similar to previous days, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall will accompany any storm. A secondary front will push through tonight and a stray shower or thunderstorm could accompany this feature. However, the brunt of the activity is likely to remain to our north. Dry conditions areawide are expected for Sunday afternoon and evening. Heat Trends: Drier air and lower dewpoints behind the front will lend to less oppressive heat for North Georgia today and areawide on Sunday. Daytime temperatures will still largely remain in the 90s but dewpoints in the 60s will make being outside a little less miserable this weekend. Forecast highs today and Sunday will rise into the low to mid 90s with temperatures in the 80s for the higher elevations. Overnight temperatures are forecast to fall into the 60s to low 70s each night/early morning. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 227 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The long term begins with an upper-level longwave trough set up over our region that will remain in place and result in drier conditions through the first half of next week. As drier conditions filter into the CWA, it will set up a nice run of drier days, with slightly cooler mornings, providing us with favorable conditions for outdoor activities. Additionally, precipitation chances will be limited through at least Tuesday, with dry mid to upper level conditions spreading across the region in combination with lower precipitable water values between 0.5-1 inch. By mid-week, the axis of the trough lifts out of the CWA toward the northeast, and the pattern will become more zonal, allowing for an influx of moisture from the Gulf, increasing our precipitation chances and humidity by mid-week. This will result in a return to the typical August diurnal thunderstorm pattern we are accustomed to as we move into the latter half of next week. Daytime temperatures will likely climb back into the low to mid-90s, with possible triple- digit heat indices for the second half of the workweek. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 128 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 MVFR ceilings remain in place across portions of northeast GA, including at AHN. These ceilings will scatter out by 19-20Z, giving way to VFR conditions across the area. Isolated TSRA will be possible in east-central GA this afternoon, but chances are too low to warrant mention at CSG/MCN at this time. A disturbance to the north could also bring isolated TSRA to the far northern tier tonight, though they are expected to remain north of ATL. Winds will be NW at 5-9 kts, diminishing to 5 kts or less overnight. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High confidence on all elements. King && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 92 69 92 65 / 0 10 0 0 Atlanta 92 72 91 68 / 0 0 10 10 Blairsville 85 62 83 58 / 0 20 0 0 Cartersville 93 68 91 64 / 0 20 0 10 Columbus 95 72 95 70 / 0 0 20 10 Gainesville 91 69 89 65 / 0 20 0 0 Macon 93 71 94 68 / 10 0 20 10 Rome 93 68 91 64 / 0 20 0 0 Peachtree City 92 69 92 66 / 0 0 10 10 Vidalia 93 73 96 71 / 30 20 10 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....82 AVIATION...King  067 FXUS63 KLMK 221730 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 130 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * A cold front will bring a chance for showers and storms this afternoon. A few storms may become strong east of I-65, with the main severe hazards being gusty to damaging winds and hail. * Mild and dry conditions are expected for Sunday through Tuesday. * Warming temperatures and low rain chances return by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Clear skies and calm winds has allowed for valley fog to develop. Fog will begin to burn off as the sun rises. A shortwave trough will move through the region today, bringing a surface cold front with it. Given that these features will be moving through in the afternoon, this will bring a lifting mechanism to present moisture and ample instability. Looking to see showers and storms develop late morning and into the early afternoon along and ahead of the cold front. 25kts of 0-6km shear and 3500 J/kg of SBCAPE will allow for a few strong to severe storms. Main hazards will be damaging winds and hail. As the cold front pushes southeast over the region, it will bring showers and storms with it. Main timeframe is 1PM to 8PM ET. The greatest threat area will be over northern and eastern Kentucky. Overnight, skies will clear and winds will become light. With recent precip from afternoon showers, patchy fog development will be possible. Drier air will build into the region and allow temperatures to fall into the low-to-mid 60s by Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Drier and slightly cooler air will remain over the region through early next week as high pressure and northwesterly flow aloft dominate. Morning lows will be in the low 60s and some areas falling into the upper 50s. Afternoon dew points are expected to be in the 50s and low 60s, which will lend to more comfortable conditions. Tuesday, we will see ridging over the western CONUS begin to broaden and push into the mid-Mississippi Valley. This will increase temperatures in the lower Ohio Valley back to near normal. At the same time, a warm front will push northeast into the Tennessee Valley. If this front makes it into the lower Ohio Valley, we will see increased moisture and chances for showers and storms. If this front stays to the southwest, we will likely remain dry through mid next week. Thursday, a trough will deepen and move through the Ohio Valley, bringing a weak cold front with it. This system will likely bring another chance for showers and storms. Behind the cold front, drier air will move into the region. Though, temperatures will remain around normal. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 129 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A cold front is moving across the region this afternoon, with winds veering from the W/SW to the NW across the boundary. Wind gusts of 15-25 kt will be possible this afternoon. SCT-BKN cu field has developed, with cloud bases mainly 4-5k ft, so would expect VFR conditions to continue this afternoon. An isolated shower or storm chance will continue in the forecast for LEX/RGA this afternoon, with confidence in storms being low-medium at best. Tonight, winds should relax after sunset, with light W/NW winds expected overnight. Winds may ease enough for patchy fog development at RGA/HNB/BWG Sunday morning, but confidence is too low at this time to include in the forecast. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRW LONG TERM...SRW AVIATION...CSG  130 FXUS64 KBRO 221730 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Hot and rain-free conditions will continue through late next week with "flash drought" situation worsening. - Moderate (level 2 of 4) to major risk (3 of 4) of heat-related impacts will worsen to major to extreme (level 4 of 4) by mid to late next week as overnight heat (upper 70s to 80s for most hours) accumulates while afternoon temperatures remain persistent between 100 (lower Valley) and 107-108 (Rio Grande Plains). - Heat advisories may be needed along/east of US 281/IH-69C next week for afternoon apparent temperatures of 111 to 114. - The combination of low minimum relativity humidity values, dry fuels, very hot temperatures, and "pulse" gusts up to 25 mph could lead to the potential for rapid wildfire spread through the period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The broken record pattern of persistent heat, dryness, afternoon pulse wind gusts (25 mph or so) remains the story, as the location of the seasonally strong 500 mb ridge (heat dome) is locked just north of the classic "La Canicula" position (southern New Mexico/southwest Texas/northern Coahuila and Chihuahua) and extends across most of Texas/northeast Mexico into the western Gulf. Global models nudge the core of the ridge into the aforementioned La Canicula position early next week, as general late summer (weak) troughing sets up across the northeast/mid Atlantic region. Toward the end of the period, the dome nudges west toward the southern New Mexico/Arizona border, but its eastward extent remains across most of Texas...which should keep any convection associated with the backside of the eastern U.S. trough mainly across the central and eastern Gulf, keeping our region rain-free. A reasonable worst-case could bring isolated showers/storms toward the outer coastal waters...but nothing more. Sensible weather, therefore, is on repeat. Otherwise, expect to see more periods of east-west moving cirrus/cirrostratus each day, which may allow for more picturesque sunrises - but the high clouds will have no influence on forecast temperatures, which rise to between 100 (lower Valley-eastern Kenedy) to 105-107 (upper Valley/Brush Country/Rio Grande Plains), and continue with sultry 80s to lower 90s through midnight (warmest west), only falling to between 75 and 82 (rural to urban) each morning. Light to near calm winds and the noticeable lenghthening darkness will help bring the minimum temperatures down in the rural areas...but overall, temperatures will be around 3 degrees above late August averages - which have just slipped from their annual perch on the 21st. As for future heat advisories (111 or higher for 2 or more hours)? Current forecasts bring the potential back for locations mainly along/east of IH-69C/US 281 by Tuesday/Wednesday through next Saturday. However, the positive feedback loop of heat and evaporation drying the ground with little to no wetting dew suggests afternoon RH (based on dewpoints) may remain low enough to keep apparent temperatures between 105-110 in all areas. Bottom line? Stay cool as best you can - there is no relief for at least the next 10 days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 It's mainly a VFR forecast, with scattered to broken cirrus/cirrostratus the main cloud feature. Expect to see few- scattered mainly VFR cumulus, favoring Harlingen/Brownsville Sunday morning between 14-17Z but that should be it. Otherwise, for the past two mornings, McAllen/Edinburg area have featured a short (TEMPO) window of low MVFR stratocumulus, so will add a group to cover, mainly between 10 and 14Z (5-9 AM). As for winds, will continue to add gusts around 20 knots this afternoon/early evening before diminishing steadily, and remaining light through mid morning Sunday before a modest pickup. && .MARINE... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Surface high pressure dominating the entire Gulf, conditions are favorable and will remain so through the period, with mainly light winds and slight seas with low swell periods and no impactful rain through Thursday night. The heat-generated gradient near the coastline and across Laguna Madre create a bit more wind (and chop), but conditions should remain at 15 knots or less, precluding even Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 While we're likely to fall just short of Fire Danger conditions (i.e. 15-20+ 20 foot wind), we're on the razor's edge when considering pulse gusts. Unlike earlier this week, however, the gradient does slacken enough to keep even a reasonable worst-case gust factor to 25 mph along/east of IH-69C/US-281, and 20 mph to the west. But the combination of flash drought, the potential for afternoon RH to fall into the 15-25% range west of IH-69C/US 281 (and 25-35% east of there) as well as re-cured fuels based on visuals and the above-average evaporation rates are enough to keep the wildfire prevention message front and center. Burn bans remain in effect for all but Kenedy County, and just a spark combined with even a pulse gust could quickly turn into a wildfire that could spread fairly rapidly. Since late July, there were two large wildfires with nearly 1400 acres burned in western Brooks - an area that missed out on two rain events not too far away (southwestern Brooks). The last truly beneficial rain over a decent-sized area was on August 2...and those benefits are long dried up. Continue to promote wildfire safety and prevention until further notice. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 How hot, August? Through the 21st, ranking in the top two or three all-time for most available stations. Rival years include 2023 (tops for several locations) and 2009 (tops for McAllen). 2023 remains the hottest meteorological summer (June-August) and astronomical summer (June 21 - September 21, in general)...but 2026 is hot on its heels. Given the expected temperatures to remain around 3 degrees above average through the end of August, several locations may tie or even push ahead of 2023's benchmark. Here are the current stats for August, through the 21st: Location (since) August (Rank) Record (year) Brownsville (1878) 90.0 (2) 90.5 (2023) McAllen (1941) 91.5 (2) 92.3 (2009) Harlingen (1912) 88.6 (5) 90.3 (2023) McCook (1942) 89.3 (4) 90.1 (1998) Port Mansfield (1958) 86.8 (2) 87.3 (2023) Rio Grande City (1897)* 90.3 (3) 93.0 (1901)* Weslaco (1914) 89.5 (2) 90.4 (2023) Raymondville (1913) 89.7 (1) 2026 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 79 99 80 99 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 75 102 76 102 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 78 104 79 104 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 76 105 76 105 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 90 81 90 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 97 78 97 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52-Goldsmith LONG TERM....52-Goldsmith AVIATION...52-Goldsmith FIRE WEATHER...52-Goldsmith CLIMATE...52-Goldsmith  125 FXUS64 KTSA 221730 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1211 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Temperatures will above normal with continued periods of high heat stress will continue through week. The possible exception being around active thunderstorm activity. - Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected through Monday, bringing areas of locally heavy rain and strong gusty winds, but most areas will see only minimal rainfall. - Areas of localized fire weather concerns will persist. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Near term focus will be storm development through the afternoon and the most likely corridor will be downstream of wave currently passing across SE KS. Satellite trends show Cu field developing into NW AR and likely marks the onset of lift impinging upon an increasingly unstable airmass. Short term guidance has been in good agreement with storms developing across either far E OK or NW AR by mid afternoon and spreading ESE through the evening. This idea seems in line with observations. Slightly stronger flow aloft and ample instability will support a risk of severe weather with the focus becoming more east of the local region by early evening. Further west precip coverage will remain low, however ample cloud cover and cold front pushing south behind the SE KS wave are all helping keep temps below advisory levels at least for today. Overnight there may be renewed elevated convection along a corridor atop the stalled frontal zone. Considerable uncertainty in this placement but mentionable chances for far eastern OK and NW AR through Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Saturday) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Hot temperatures return Sunday as cloud cover and precip chances appear lower during the day. Thunderstorm complex may develop Sunday evening into the overnight areas and spread across the area with the most likely zone currently seen as far eastern OK and western AR through Monday morning. Hot temperatures and high heat stress conditions will remain a concern through early week as any relief from persistent rain will be localized. Potential for minor heat relief and a chance of shower and storms may return by mid to late week as the upper ridge now appears to remain anchored across the western CONUS leaving NW flow aloft through the Plains. This would allow a chance for a weak cold front to move into the region and at least bring a chance of rain and slightly cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 639 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop later this morning and continue through the afternoon, with convective impacts possible at all sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 98 74 97 76 / 30 20 10 30 FSM 102 74 99 75 / 30 40 20 30 MLC 100 73 103 78 / 30 30 10 20 BVO 97 70 95 71 / 30 10 10 40 FYV 97 69 94 70 / 30 30 20 60 BYV 94 69 91 69 / 40 20 20 60 MKO 98 72 97 74 / 30 20 10 30 MIO 95 70 93 71 / 30 20 20 60 F10 99 72 99 76 / 30 20 10 20 HHW 100 74 102 78 / 20 30 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...05  329 FXUS61 KBUF 221733 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 133 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Made slight adjustments to POP's and QPF through midday today based on latest trends in observations and model guidance, including our 12Z/Sat sounding, which shows rather dry air in the surface to roughly 600 mb layer of the atmospheric column. As of 8:30 AM EDT, a cyclonic MCV was centered over northeastern Lake Erie, near Long Point, ON, and should continue to move generally NE'ward amidst SW'erly mean flow in the 925 to 500 mb layer. Mesoscale and moistening isentropic ascent associated with the vortex may generate isolated to scattered rain showers and a thunderstorm or two through midday, especially west of the longitude of Buffalo, as synoptic-scale flow at the surface and aloft transports moister air from the Corn Belt, courtesy of evapotranspiration, and that moister air combined with daytime heating allow CAPE, including elevated CAPE, to increase. The rest of the forecast remains valid. Please see discussion below for further details. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon through Sunday afternoon. 2) Cool, upper level low to bring lake effect rain Sunday afternoon through Tuesday night. Cool Sunday night through Monday night. 3) Showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday with the passage of Upper level trough axis. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Showers and scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon through Sunday afternoon. A deepening area of low pressure, advancing from Michigan this morning to just north of Lakes Erie and Ontario Sunday morning- afternoon will push a warm front across our region today, followed by a cold front late tonight through midday Sunday. Instability will increase to around 500 to 1000 J/KG of MUCAPE late this afternoon and through the evening hours which will support scattered thunderstorms. A modest wind flow through 10K feet could bring a few stronger storms with damaging wind gusts, though the overall warm, moist environment with a 10K warm cloud depth is not the greatest for large hail growth. Combined with peak heating of the day, a few stronger storms will exist across our region (marginal to slight risk level west of the Genesee Valley), before overnight convection and instability begins to wane. Any storm in this increasingly moisture rich environment could bring a locally heavy downpour. Additionally, as increasing EL heights force the convective cloud depth to grow to over 25K feet, combined with a deepening 850 hPa to lake surface temperature gradient, a few waterspouts may form under the approaching upper level low. A shortwave trough within the base of the negatively tilted upper level low early Sunday combined with the occluded front will pass across our region early Sunday. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be likely ahead of the frontal boundary Sunday...these within a typical summer humid airmass. A few stronger storms will be possible, especially along and south of the NYS Thruway along with the potential both damaging wind gusts and hail as lapse rates steepen. PWats around 1.5 inches will allow for a few drenching downpours of rain as well. Expect the rain showers to end from west to east through midday...though attention will quickly turn to a lake effect response. Key Message 2...Cool, upper level low to bring lake effect rain Sunday afternoon through Tuesday night. Cool Sunday night through Monday night. An early taste of fall Sunday night through Monday night as a cool upper level low rotates across our region. Temperatures at 850 hPa will plummet towards +7 to +8C across the eastern Great Lakes. This will generate a lake effect rain response with the cool air flowing over the very warm lakes. Broken bands of lake effect rain will become disorganized through the day Monday with daytime heating and the passage of a trough, but both Sunday night a decent plume of lake effect rain, centered just near and south of Buffalo and Watertown, and Monday night into Tuesday centered ESE of the Lakes is expected. This rain will diminish Monday night off Lake Erie, and Tuesday and Tuesday night off Lake Ontario. In addition to the rain, there will be the potential for waterspouts along lake convergent boundaries with tall EL heights combined with the cool air associated with the upper level low over the warm lakes. Overnight lows will be some 5 to 8 degrees below normal Sunday night and Monday night, while high temperatures Monday will be some 10 to 15 degrees below late August normals. Key Message 3...Showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday with the passage of Upper level trough axis. A surface trough, combined with an axis of an upper level low will pass across the eastern Great Lakes region Monday. Instability is not too impressive, generally under 300 J/KG of MUCAPE, but increasing low level lapse rates of 6.5 to 7.0 C/km will aid in the generation of more widespread shower activity through the late morning and early afternoon hours. Behind the initial cold front PWATs will not be as great, generally around an inch which will keep any heavier downpours limited, but the increasing lapse rates and lowering wet bulb zero heights could bring small hail within any stronger convective cell Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface low pressure overhead of the central Great Lakes this afternoon will slide east into the eastern Great Lakes, pushing a pair of fronts across the region this evening and overnight. These surface features are what are driving the line of scattered convection across the Ohio Valley and the center of Lake Erie as of 17Z. This line is expected to progress eastward this afternoon (18Z to 00Z), spreading convection inland. With the better instability across far WNY, a few of the thunderstorms may become severe, producing gusty winds in excess of 50kts. Overall flight conditions will remain VFR, with the exception of the aforementioned thunderstorms where conditions may drop down to brief and localized MVFR/IFR from ceilings and visibility. With the cold frontal passage this evening (after 00Z/Sun), widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will pass east across the area, causing ceilings to drop to widespread MVFR with a swath of IFR conditions across the western Southern Tier (impacting KJHW) and the higher elevations east of Lake Ontario. Wrap around moisture and cooler temperatures aloft in the wake of the front Sunday morning will support lake enhanced showers east of Lakes Erie and Ontario Sunday, which will maintain widespread low end VFR ceilings with MVFR ceilings within any lake effect showers and clouds east of the Lakes. Outlook... Monday...Periodic showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms with associated MVFR/IFR, with mainly VFR expected outside of any precipitation. Monday night through Tuesday night...Lake effect rain, mainly east and southeast of the Lakes with associated restrictions diminishing off Lake Erie Monday night and Tuesday and off Lake Ontario Tuesday and Tuesday night. Otherwise mainly VFR. Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Thursday...Mainly VFR, except MVFR/IFR conditions possible from scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Behind a departing area of surface high pressure, a modest southeasterly to southerly flow will continue through the day today. A deepening area of low pressure passing just north of the Lakes will push first a warm front (today) and later a cold front (Sunday) across the lakes...with showers and a few thunderstorms along each frontal boundary. Behind the cold front Sunday, an upper level low will bring an early taste of autumn with a brisk west wind developing within a decently strong pressure gradient and moderate instability over the Lakes. While initial southerly flow Sunday may bring small craft conditions to the lakes Sunday, the southwest flow under the upper level low Sunday night through Monday night...and then westerly flow Tuesday will likely continue the choppy waters on the Lakes with SCA likely. In addition to the brisk winds, there will be the potential for waterspouts with tall EL heights combined with the cool air associated with cyclonic flow around the upper level low over the warm lakes. Initial waterspout development will be as early as tonight over Lake Erie...and later tonight over Lake Ontario. This threat will continue through at least Monday night. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jaszka/Thomas AVIATION...EAL MARINE...Thomas  271 FXUS63 KDDC 221732 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1232 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Tonight and again on Sunday night. Severe weather currently is not anticipated but a few of the stronger storms on Sunday may produce wind gusts in excess of 50 mph across extreme southwest Kansas. - A warming trend is expected Sunday and Monday with highs across south central and portions of southwest Kansas ranging from 100 to near 103 on Monday. - Improving chance for precipitation will develop towards mid week with locally heavy rainfall possible from thunderstorms Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Earlier this morning, a 500mb high was centered over the Central Rockies with a northwest flow present across western Kansas. Embedded in this northwest flow there was an upper level trough crossing Kansas with scattered early morning convection occurring ahead of this upper level system and along/east of a 12-14C 700mb temperature gradient. At the surface a stationary front extended from eastern Colorado into the Texas Panhandle. An area of high pressure at the surface was located over the northern Plains. Models today remain in good agreement with the surface high building into the Mid Mississippi Valley over the next 24 to 36 hours allowing some cooler, more seasonal air, trying to filter into areas of central Kansas through early next week. The surface boundary will remain nearly stationary across eastern Colorado and the Panhandle of Texas. Upslope flow north of this boundary and improving instability late day will result in an opportunity for late day/evening convection over eastern Colorado as a upper level trough crosses the Rockies and moves out into the West Central High Plains. While these storms may initially be capable of producing strong damaging winds gusts...these storms are expected to weaken as they move into western Kansas after sunset. Based on the latest 400mb PVU timing and location of the mid level baroclinic zone tonight it appears that this Colorado convection should move into west central Kansas well after sunset and cross west central and north central Kansas between midnight and daybreak on Sunday. These storms overnight are not expected. Little change in the overall weather pattern is expected on Sunday. On Sunday night western Kansas will still be on the northeast edge of the upper high as more subtle upper waves rotate around this upper high. Models continue to advertise that another upper wave will exit eastern Colorado and cross western Kansas. This once again will favor scattered overnight thunderstorm, especially along and just north of wherever our mid level baroclinic zone will be located. Currently based on the latest CAMS it appears that this baroclinic zone further south which would allow areas south of the Arkansas river to have the chance (20-40%) for this convection Sunday night. Once again gusty winds will be the main hazard from the stronger storms with the more favorable area for these stronger gusty winds being across extreme southwest Kansas (west of Highway 83). As for temperatures late this weekend and into early next week...850mb temperatures will warm by at least 3-5C and as a result the afternoon high temperatures are forecast to rebounding back to around 100 degrees across much of southwest and south center Kansas, especially on Monday. Heat index values currently are forecast to remain below heat advisory criteria but it may be close for an hour or two near the Oklahoma border and east of Liberal. Hot August temperatures will be returning but heat advisory criteria is not expected. Temperatures further northeast will be cooler than thesetriple digit temperatures and are expected to average between 5 to 10F cooler, especially near the I-70 corridor on Sunday. Reason for these cooler temperatures on Sunday will be due to the expected cloud cover/precipitation chances as our Sunday upper level trough crosses western Kansas. On Tuesday we will be monitoring a more significant upper level trough crossing the Rocking moving out of the Rockies and into the Plains. As it moves out into the Plains there will be a cold front dropping south into western Kansas . This cold front will not only bring an end to the warming trend but also will bring improving chances for precipitation across all of southwest Kansas. Improving chances for precipitation combined with PWATs improving to greater than 85% that of normal for this time of year may also result in widespread accumulating rainfall from these storms. At this time it appears that our best opportunity for this accumulating rainfall will be Tuesday night with the ensemble clusters indicating anywhere between 30 and 50% chance for 24 hour rainfall totals ending at 7am Wednesday being >0.25”. Latest NBM guidance was advertising 24hour rainfall totals ending Wednesday morning >0.25” at 40 to near 70%. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Gusty winds behind an outflow boundary from early morning convection resulted in northeast winds at near 20 knots gusting at time to 30 knots late this Saturday morning across southwest Kansas. These winds will decrease and return to the east southeast at 10 to 15knots by 21z this afternoon. These winds will continue through early tonight when outflow from another area of thunderstorms are expected to spread into southwest Kansas after midnight. This outflow will occur ahead of an area of weakening convection so the chance for thunderstorms at any of the four terminals is low (<20%). The exception will be Hays between 10z and 14z Sunday. As this outflow moves through late tonight the easterly winds will become northeast and increase to around 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots being possible for several hours. Clear skies will give way to increasing clouds at or above 1000ft AGL after 00z Sunday as afternoon Colorado convection moves towards western Kansas. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Burgert AVIATION...Burgert  318 FXUS63 KDLH 221732 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1232 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers exiting by early this morning. Portions of the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin could see a few sprinkles from late this morning through early evening. - Otherwise, dry and sunny for this weekend with lower dewpoints and seasonal high temperatures. Breezy northwest winds for today. - Chilly Saturday and Sunday nights with low temperatures in the 40s and possibly upper 30s in the typical cold spots. No frost is forecast at this time. - The next chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms is early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Today - Sunday: A few remnant rain showers in north-central WI exit to the east by early this morning as a cold front finishes moving through the Northland. Additional accumulation of around 0.1-0.2" or less expected. The rest of this weekend shapes up to be largely dry as northwest flow aloft sets up along with surface high pressure. We may be able to squeeze out a few sprinkles in the MN Arrowhead and portions of northwest WI later this morning through early evening with post-cold front cold-air advection (CAA). A drier low-level airmass in place may keep most of this precipitation in the form of virga rather than precipitation actually reaching the ground. Regardless, measurable precipitation is not forecast. Winds will also be gusty out of the northwest today up to 20-25 mph before becoming light to calm tonight and mostly light on Sunday. High temperatures remain near normal in the 69-78 F range for most of the Northland this weekend. The drier airmass, lighter winds, and mostly clear skies Saturday night and Sunday night will result in chillier low temperatures in the low to upper 40s across much of the Northland. The typical cold spots will likely even touch the upper-30s, though frost is currently not expected. Monday - Wednesday: Shortwave ridging aloft on Monday keeps the Northland dry most of the day. However, an upper-level cut-off low and its attendant surface low traversing the Canadian Prairies this weekend into Monday eventually works its way into and through portions of the Upper Midwest for Monday night into Wednesday, bringing periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Initial warm-frontal showers/storms move into northeast Minnesota for Monday night, then the warm sector of the surface low sets up over portions of the Northland daytime Tuesday, and then the cold front moves through the area from west to east late Tuesday through Tuesday night before exiting the area on Wednesday as the vertically stacked low pressure moves into the Great Lakes. While there is likely to still be some slight adjustments in timing of this system, if the warm sector can set up over the Northland on daytime Tuesday in conjunction with peak heating, there is a non-zero chance that we could see some of the scattered storms become strong to severe ahead of the cold front Tuesday afternoon and evening as instability maximizes along with ample 0-6 km bulk shear of 30-40 knots. The picture for this will become clearer as we get into early next week and the forecast mesoscale features come into better focus. Expect scattered shower and non-severe storm chances to linger into Wednesday as cyclonic flow sets up over the region behind the departing low pressure. With rainfall likely to be scattered with this weather system, precipitation could be hit or miss for portions of the area. The fairly progressive nature of this system also limits residence time and heavy rainfall potential. NBM probabilities of 0.25" or greater Monday night through Wednesday currently range from 20-30% in the Brainerd Lakes into I-35 corridor, to 50-80% in much of the Arrowhead and northern MN, highest near the International Border. Probabilities in much of northwest WI range from 30-60%. Probabilities for >1" fall off substantially to effectively less than 20% across the Northland, with potential likely to be localized to where several thunderstorms move over a given location. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer early next week with highs in the 70s to low-80s Monday through Wednesday and even a few spots of mid-80s on Tuesday, while lows Monday night and Tuesday night fall into the upper 40s to 50s. Late Next Week: The second half of the upcoming work week looks to remain in northwest flow aloft, with surface high pressure returning and bringing drier conditions again as precipitation chances Thursday and Friday remain at 15% or less. Global ensemble guidance diverges regarding the mid- and upper-level pattern going into next weekend, leading to lower confidence in the forecast beyond late next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Diurnal cumulus clouds will be present through much of the afternoon into the evening with smoke aloft and patchy smoke at the surface occasionally reducing visibilities at INL, HIB, and BRD to MVFR. Tonight, fog is expected with areas of dense fog possible at HIB. IFR to LIFR visibilities and ceilings are possible with the fog. Winds will be gusty today, up to 25 kts throughout the afternoon before decreasing this evening. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 224 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Northwest winds of 5 to 15 kts are expected today, with daytime gusts of 15-20 kts for the North Shore to Twin Ports and in the Outer Apostles to Saxon Harbor. Winds become northerly tonight into early Sunday morning at 15 kts or less for most except up to 20 kts near Grand Portage. Winds become light and variable for the remainder of Sunday into Sunday night before becoming light out of the east to northeast on Monday. No thunderstorms are expected until at least late Monday night. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 224 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A secondary cold front exiting northwest Wisconsin early this morning will lead to an end of isolated showers in north-central Wisconsin prior to sunrise. Breezy northwesterly flow and drier air arrives behind the front for today. Expect afternoon RH today to dip to 30-45% range, with some locally lower values possible in the I-35 corridor east into the northwest Wisconsin Pine Barrens. This will be accompanied by late morning through early evening wind gusts up to 20 mph, locally to 25 mph. Min RH on Sunday drops slightly lower to 30-40% for most areas, with potential for the northwest Wisconsin Pine Barrens to touch the mid to upper-20s with peak afternoon mixing. Winds will be lighter out of the North on Sunday, though a few gusts to 10-15 mph are possible in the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin during the day. Fairly dry again with 30-45% min RH on Monday before moisture increases Monday night through Wednesday as a low pressure system approaches and moves through the area. There will be scattered shower and thunderstorm chances for Monday night through Tuesday, with some wrap around showers/general thunderstorms chances lingering into Wednesday. Widespread, heavy rainfall is not anticipated so appreciable drought relief is not expected. Some spots that see repeated thunderstorms move overhead early next week could pick up locally higher amounts in excess of an inch, but this would be very localized at best and with a less than 20% chance of occurring. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rothstein AVIATION...KML MARINE...Rothstein FIRE WEATHER...Rothstein  335 FXUS63 KGLD 221733 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1133 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms forecast to develop along the CO Front Range late this afternoon will track east toward the KS border this evening. A few storms capable of producing small hail and localized wind gusts up to 65 mph are possible, mainly in eastern CO between 7-11 PM MDT. - Another chance for storms Sunday night with a low risk for damaging winds. - Severe chances likely return for early next week under northwest flow. - Above normal temperatures through at least mid week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Upper ridge over the Texas Panhandle today will gradually migrate westward to the Four Corners by Tuesday night. This position will keep the Central Plains under zonal to northwesterly flow through the period with chances for showers and thunderstorms. Today and Sunday, with the ridge to the south and a zonal flow coming out of Colorado, convection originating over the mountains and Front Range will move east and reach the area during the evening hours. Storms will likely be weakening as they do so with the rapid decrease in instability near sunset. Nonetheless, they may still pose a marginal severe wind risk even in the decaying stages. Rainfall amounts look to be light, less than a quarter of an inch both nights. Monday and Tuesday, will be transitioning back to northwest flow with a corresponding increase in deep layer shear. This will result in better organized updrafts and a severe risk both days for wind and hail. On Monday the primary storm initiation area will be southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. The mean flow around the ridge will take them east then southeast with time, which will place areas generally north of Interstate 70 in the most favorable region for severe storms. On Tuesday, storms will be initiating further south in northeast Colorado in the afternoon, then moving east to southeast through the evening. The severe risk will extend into most if not all of the area. Temperature trends for the period will be above normal all days with highs well into the 90s. Normal highs for this time of year are in the upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 202 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Synoptically, a ridge is forecast to be over the SW CONUS and currently looks to remain relatively stationary. Throughout the week, there appears to be a few shortwaves moving though the CWA, which may bring higher precipitation chances. High temperatures for the week are forecast to be in the 90s for the majority of the area. The "coolest" day for the period looks to be Wednesday, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s, whereas Friday looks to be the hottest with highs in the mid 90s. If the ridge begins to amplify or move eastward, as guidance hints, higher temperatures could be seen. Winds throughout the week are forecast to be calm to breezy, and relative humidity values are expected to be higher than 30%, which should help minimize fire weather concerns. Precipitation chances are present during the week. As some shortwaves move around the high, they will likely to be our main precipitation producers. The day currently with the highest precipitation chances is Tuesday. Guidance hints at some vorticity associated with the shortwave as it moves through Tuesday afternoon. Both CAPE and shear appear sufficient for severe storms; however, some guidance indicates a mismatch between higher/lower CAPE and lower/higher shear, which could lead to less organized storms. Looking at qpf, some guidance shows the possibility of heavy rainfall with these storms, which is something to keep in mind as we get closer to Tuesday. The rest of the week there is roughly a 15-30% chance of PoPs as various shortwaves move through the region. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1030 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the afternoon with mostly clear skies and light winds. Tonight, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will move out of Colorado late this evening and overnight. There is around a 30% probability of impacting KGLD with brief gusty winds and visibility reductions due to rain. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...Holdren AVIATION...024  432 FXUS61 KAKQ 221735 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 135 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Slight (level 2/5) excessive rain risk trimmed back to just the Eastern Shore. - Marginal (level 1/5) Severe risk added to areas west of I-95 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and some embedded storms are likely today, especially near the Chesapeake Bay and on the Eastern Shore. While severe weather is not expected, localized flash flooding will be possible. 2) Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered diurnally driven convection returns by the middle to latter part of the week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 305 AM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and some embedded storms are likely today, especially near the Chesapeake Bay and on the Eastern Shore. While severe weather is not expected, localized flash flooding will be possible. A weak stationary boundary remains just south of the forecast area this morning, roughly aligned along the NC/SC coast. There is also a broad trough axis aloft across most of the eastern CONUS. Locally, there is a ribbon of mostly light rain across the northern/northwest portions of the area. This conflicts with several earlier runs of various CAMS which depicted rather widespread overnight showers and storms, particularly across SE VA and NE NC. In fact, these areas are actually quite stable as of this writing with sfc temps in the lower 70s and dew points in the upper 60s, which yields low/near-zero sfc-based and MUCAPE. Any appreciable instability remains confined to our S, in closer proximity to the front. Therefore, really don't see much convective activity developing through around sunrise. The front will (eventually) lift northward as we head into this afternoon. Model and WPC progs also depict weak low pressure developing in the vicinity of the Chesapeake Bay and Eastern Shore. This, combined with some low-level convergence, should be sufficient for showers to develop in these areas by late this afternoon and afternoon. Instability looks quite meager, especially early on in the day, so am not expecting widespread thunderstorms at this time. A moist atmospheric column (PWATS ~2.1" across the E/SE) and slow- moving activity will support a continued heavy rain and localized flash flooding risk. The 00z HREF also depicted a relatively impressive signal for heavy rain and some flash flooding in the Eastern Shore vicinity. However, all of the 00z members that comprised the ensemble suite are currently handling the ongoing activity extremely poorly. Therefore, confidence in the evolution of convection later today is low and some recent runs of the CAMs are less bullish about the overall coverage of showers and the associated heavy rain signal. In summary, localized pockets of very heavy rain are possible, but the exact location is uncertain and the coverage may tend to be on the low side. All of this precludes the need for any Flood Watch at this time. Late this evening, convection from the Great Lakes and OH Valley, associated with the primary cold front and trough, could approach our Piedmont counties. However, diminishing instability and reduced forcing with eastward extent should allow for most of this activity to diminish as it moves eastward tonight. Outside of any precip, temps will be quite "cool" for mid-late August and only in the upper 70s-lower 80s (some mid 80s possible SE). Skies will average mostly cloudy, with some clearing possible W of I-95 this afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered diurnally driven convection returns by the middle to latter part of the week. The weak front will finally move offshore late Sunday, as the main upper level trough axis shifts offshore and surface high pressure builds into the SE CONUS. The surface high will usher in a drier airmass with seasonable temperatures in the 80s and dew points in the 60s Sunday into early next week. A reinforcing intrusion of dry air is likely Monday night/Tuesday with dew points in the 50s looking likely (except 60s far SE). The high is progged to break down by Wed/Thu, with unsettled conditions and isolated- scattered aftn/evening convection returning mid to late week. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Saturday... Conditions have overall improved at the terminals as of latest obs, though some spotty MVFR CIGs are lingering in the region as a whole. Showers continue to linger across the immediate coastal areas, but have largely avoided the terminals. Left precip as prob30s for the most part due to the low confidence, but did put showers in a prevailing group for SBY since the approaching cold front should be able to push the showers from the Ches Bay closer to the terminal. The aforementioned front will sweep through the region overnight, ushering in drier air. Light winds turn to the west behind the front tomorrow. Patchy fog is possible inland late tonight due to light winds and lingering low level moisture. Outlook: Drying out as high pressure fills in. Dry and prevailing VFR conditions expected through the early week period. && .MARINE... As of 125 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Generally benign marine conditions are expected through the weekend into early next week. - Showers and occasional thunderstorms are expected today, with diminishing chances of showers and thunderstorms Sunday into early next week. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail this weekend through much of next week. A weak surface trough remains centered along the coast today. Meanwhile, a larger trough moves in from the west late today into tonight. Scattered showers and storms have developed along the first trough over the Ches Bay and are expected to continue through this afternoon. Additional showers/storms are possible with the second trough this evening. Winds this afternoon were SE 5-10 kt for most of the local waters with locally stronger winds of 10-15 kt across the middle Ches Bay. A few gusts up to 20 kt are possible across the Ches Bay through tonight, however, confidence in frequent gusts to 20 kt is too low to issue SCAs at this time. Otherwise, a warm front slowly lifts north later today into tonight, allowing winds to become SW 10-15 kt behind the front tonight. A cold front slowly pushes across the local waters Sun with high pressure building in behind it. As such, winds become light and variable Sun. Another weak cold front crosses the coast early Mon with a brief wind shift to NW, before becoming variable with speeds remaining less than 10kt. Yet another weak cold front crosses the coast early Tue, resulting in a brief wind shift to N/NNE. High pressure settles off the Southeast coast from mid to late week, resulting in SE-SW flow at or below 15kt. Seas of 2-3 ft continue through the week with predominant seas of only around 2 ft. Meanwhile, waves remain 1 ft to occasionally 2 ft waves in the Ches Bay. A low rip risk will be maintained through Tue. Will note that while winds become onshore Tue, nearshore seas remain only around 1-2 ft which should limit the rip current risk. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ERI/SW AVIATION...AC MARINE...RMM  393 FXUS63 KLBF 221734 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1234 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are expected to last this morning, bringing potential for heavy rainfall east of Highway 83. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected tonight, lingering into the afternoon on Sunday. Heavy rainfall will again be the main concern. - Northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the central plains over the next several days leading to a daily threat for precipitation across the area. - Temperatures will be seasonal across the area with daily highs ranging from the lower to middle 80s in the northeast, to around 90 in the southwest. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 306 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Storms are expected to linger through the morning hours, especially areas east of Highway 83. The environment remains fairly worked from yesterday's convection, and generally fairly stable. However, still have plenty of low level moisture and deep layer shear for some more organized updrafts to develop during the early morning period. The main concern with these early morning storms is the additional moisture aloft, as well as potential for training storm development, leading to potential for locally heavy rainfall. This signal remains strongest east of Highway 83, where soils remain quite moist from the previous few rain events. This may lead to some localized flooding threat, especially in areas where training thunderstorms can develop and in low lying regions. After storms clear out in the morning, expect a brief break from rain and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Skies remain partly to mostly cloudy, limiting the ability for strong instability to develop across the region. This may also keep temperatures slightly cooler today, with highs mostly remaining in the 80s, with upper 80s really only along and south of the Interstate 80 corridor. While the afternoon looks relatively quiet, expecting another round of convection to initiate along a nearly stationary boundary in western Nebraska. The main core of the upper level jet is expected to be slightly further east, which may limit our deep layer shear in addition to the already limited instability. In general, expecting this will allow for a multicellular storm mode across the Sandhills and east. At this point, thinking the main concerns this evening into the overnight hours will be potential for heavy rainfall yet again. Cannot completely rule out a threat for some isolated large hail, especially in the stronger updrafts, and strong, gusty winds with the stronger downdrafts. While individual cells may bring locally heavy rainfall, the main threat for heavy rain will be the redevelopment of cells behind the initial push. Again, thinking the greater threat for any potential flooding will be areas east of Highway 83, where there has already been ample rainfall the past few days, with fairly saturated soils. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger throughout the morning and afternoon on Sunday, especially given the nearly stationary nature of the boundary. This may also set up a notable temperature gradient across the region. As clouds should be able to clear across western Nebraska, may see highs pushing into the lower 90s. However, across north central Nebraska, mostly cloudy and rainy conditions may limit highs to only the upper 70s. At this time, the severe threat remains relatively low, but could see some decent rainfall again throughout the day on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 306 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 High pressure aloft will remain anchored over the southwestern CONUS through next week. Ridging will extend north of this feature into the northern Rockies. The amplitude of the ridging will be temporarily suppressed Sunday night into Monday night by a strong trough of low pressure traversing southern Canada. As this feature tracks east into the northern Great Lakes midweek, slightly cooler air will back into mainly eastern portions of the forecast area. Further west and southwest, warm temperatures will continue with daily highs reaching around 90 degrees. Readings in the northeastern forecast area will reach into the low 80s Wednesday and Thursday. With the persistent northwesterly flow aloft, and favorable moisture at the surface, periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through next week. As for the severe threat, deep layer shear of 30+ KTS looks probable next week, favoring a continued threat for severe storms daily. With thetae ridging across the western forecast area next week, storms appear to develop over the higher terrain of eastern Wyoming and the western Panhandle almost daily. Steering winds will carry this activity southeast into western and central portions of the forecast area. Based on the latest NBM forecast, precipitation chances are highest in the western half of the forecast area, and this seems reasonable && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected for the bulk of the forecast period. Mostly clear skies this afternoon will give way to increasing cloud cover by late afternoon/early evening with gradually lowering CIGs. Convection will develop well west of the terminals and make an eastward push through the evening. Ensemble guidance, namely the morning HREF run, shows rapidly decreasing QPF probabilities on approach to both KLBF and KVTN and this casts some doubt on storm maintainence/impacts at either site. Similarly, late morning deterministic HRRR output shows similar low-confidence evolution of convection with eastward extent. All this to say, confidence in impacts is low so will cover with a PROB30 group for both site as a result. Following convection, lingering mid-level clouds may presist across the area but should remain at or above 5kft AGL. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Richie LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...NMJ  381 FXUS64 KHGX 221734 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1234 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory remains in effect. Hot conditions will persist through next week. - Cannot rule out a rouge shower or thunderstorm at times into midweek, but chances will be quite low. - Temperatures VERY slightly ease late in the week along with the potential for some isolated rain chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Ridge will remain firmly in control well into the next week...limiting rain chances and keeping above normal temps in place. Daytime highs will be in the 100-104F range inland and 90-94 at the beaches. Heat index readings will peak in the 105-110F range and a Heat Advisory remains in place. Mid level heights will begin to ease somewhat Thursday into the weekend as the center of the ridge repositions itself slightly further wwd from New Mexico into the Desert Southwest. As such, we'll probably see temperatures ease just a tad (from the currently prevailing 100-104F down into the 98-101F range) and possibly the return of some low diurnally driven POPs. 47 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions prevail alongside westerly to southwesterly winds around 5-10 kt. Winds will transition to southeasterly around 21Z. There is low confidence on the placement and extent of afternoon convection moving in from the northeast. UTS would be the most likely to see a stray shower or storm should the convection make it into the area. Their PROB30 covers the most likely timeframe for convective impacts in the late afternoon. Another round of intermittent periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible especially at LBX and near the metro area. VFR conditions will return by 15Z/Sunday with light winds out of the southwest. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Southwest to west winds late at night and in the mornings will become south 10 to 15 knots during the day as the seabreeze kicks in. Seas will be on the low side...1 to 3 feet. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 79 104 78 102 / 10 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 81 103 80 101 / 10 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 83 92 83 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...47 AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...47  488 FXUS61 KBOX 221736 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 136 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Misty with drizzle today ahead of heavier rain tonight into Sunday. - Drier and warmer next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Misty with drizzle today ahead of heavier rain tonight into Sunday. Low pressure has continued to bring scattered light showers and drizzle/mist across parts of the Cape and south coast tonight as it has continued trekking northeast, while more interior parts of the region have remained mostly dry. This trend should continue to start the day. Based on latest observations, the low is centered just south of Nantucket as of the time of writing this discussion. Guidance remains in agreement with the general track of this low after it remained further south of Long Island than initially forecast; it will curve up and around the Cape and Islands through the day today, moving up into the NH/ME coast into Sunday morning. Misty conditions with periods of drizzle remain the main story for today as a result of prevailing cyclonic flow. Some CAMs hinted at a brief period of showers in the late morning to afternoon hours, with some even showing them passing through the interior. Highs today will likely not get out of the low 70s for southern New England. Heavier rainfall moves through tonight, generally after midnight, as the low continues on. PWATs remain elevated, approaching 2.0" towards SE MA and the Cape and Islands. IVT remains favorable for heavier showers, though the more anomalous values should remain further offshore. With regards to rainfall totals, ensembles top out at around a 20% chance of totals meeting or exceeding 1" in 24 hours ending Sunday over the Cape and Islands. The exception remains the GEFS, which continues to be drier than the other ensembles. Ensembles have somewhat trended higher totals slightly more offshore over the last few runs while deterministic guidance has somewhat varied more from run to run. The HREF PMM has 24 hour totals getting to around 0.75"-1" over the same area, including into parts of RI and SE MA; 48 hour totals could reach 1.5". High-res guidance indicates streaks of higher totals stretching northeast across the coastal plain, but this could change depending on just how close to land the low tracks while it cuts around Cape Cod. Overcast and misty conditions with periods of drizzle remain the story for Sunday as well as the low continues north and a front starts to approach from the west. Ahead of this front, the flow turns more southerly to southwesterly. This will advect in more moisture from the south and increase dewpoints into the 70s. PWATs approaching 2.0" and higher will filer in as well. Notably, CAMs have MUCAPE values approaching 1500-1700 J/kg with limited CIN over the interior for Sunday afternoon. 0-6 km shear approaches 50 kt with effective bulk shear around 35 kt. All of these parameters combined with any possible forcing from the front could set the stage for some scattered thunderstorms, some of which could turn strong to severe over the interior. With more southerly flow as well, highs Sunday increase back into the upper 70s and low 80s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier and warmer next week. Sunday's cold front shifts offshore for Monday. Post-frontal passage, much drier air and warmer temperatures take hold with more westerly winds, clearing out clouds and dropping dewpoints through Wednesday. The base of the trough tracks directly overhead into Tuesday and heights rise behind it as it continues eastward, though a weak shortwave may track through and bring a low chance of diurnal showers. High pressure continues building into the region into the middle of next week and flow aloft becomes more zonal. Low pressure developing over the Great Lakes towards the second half of the week may play more of a role later in the week, but for the time being, no major disturbances are expected through Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update... This afternoon through tonight...Moderate confidence. Mainly MVFR conditions at mid-aftternoon will deteriorate to generally IFR with localized IFR cigs/vsbys tonight. A few spotty showers/light drizzle and fog patches are possible at times too. Perhaps a few heavier showers and isolated t-storms graze areas towards the Cape and Islands toward daybreak Sun. Calm/light NE winds. Sunday and Sunday night...Moderate confidence. Mainly IFR with localized LIFR conditions Sun morning should improve to mainly MVFR-VFR levels by Sun afternoon/night. A few showers and t-storms are possible too with the greatest risk near and west of the CT River Valley during the afternoon/early evening. Light ENE gradually becoming light S by Sun night. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Tuesday Night: VFR. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Sunday...High confidence. NE to N winds generally 15-20 kts and seas 3-4 ft through most of today become more light variable today into tonight as the low breaks down into Sunday morning. Winds then shift more S for Sunday at around 5-10 kt, gusting to just under 20 kt occasionally during the afternoon. Despite the lower wave heights, the prolonged northeasterly flow will cause higher swells and longer swell periods today which is why a Rip Current Statement for Plymouth and Barnstable Counties will be in effect. Eastern, ocean-facing beaches will be primarily affected, especially across the northern portion of Cape Cod; however, bay-facing beaches may also experience rip currents. Swells diminish for Sunday, and the risk for rip currents decreases with them. Outlook /Sunday Night through Thursday/... Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Monday Night through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 6 PM EDT this evening for MAZ019- 022. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hrencecin AVIATION...Frank MARINE...Hrencecin  481 FXUS64 KMAF 221736 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Hot temperatures continue through the forecast period with little to no chance of rain. - Drink plenty of fluids and seek shade frequently as heat illnesses due to prolonged exposure to heat may occur. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 147 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Very little change in the forecast this weekend with the "heat dome" in full control. Highs continue to climb around a degree a day as the upper ridge settles directly overhead. Temperatures will reach around 105 for locations like Snyder, Big Spring, and Colorado City where the Heat Risk will reach the Extreme category. This means that without proper hydration or adequate cooling, even healthy people are at risk of heat exhaustion or worse. Strongly consider canceling outdoor activities in the afternoon and stay hydrated. Take breaks in the air-conditioning as fans will not be adequate in this type of heat. A Heat Advisory has been issued and will likely be extended into next week and possibly expanded west with time. Showers and storms are expected to develop to our north this evening around LUB. These could drift south this evening, but will likely be dissipating by the time they enter our area. Gusty, outflow winds are still possible though. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 147 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The upper ridge will flatten early next week, but remain directly over our region. This will bring the peak of the current heat wave Monday/Tuesday with nearly all locations at or above 100 degrees. Heat Advisories may be expanded during this time as the heat wave enters a week in duration. The ridge shifts west late in the week helping decrease temperatures by a few degrees. Northwest flow will develop aloft and could bring in a few storms from the TX Panhandle. Right now, rain chances remain low (<30%), with the best chances across the northern Permian Basin Thursday/Friday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with light S/SE winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 104 76 104 76 / 0 10 0 0 Carlsbad 101 72 101 73 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 102 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 100 73 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 93 69 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 100 71 100 72 / 0 10 0 0 Marfa 94 63 94 63 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 101 75 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 100 75 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 102 74 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for Borden-Howard-Mitchell- Scurry. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...21  487 FXUS64 KTSA 221736 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Temperatures will above normal with continued periods of high heat stress will continue through week. The possible exception being around active thunderstorm activity. - Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected through Monday, bringing areas of locally heavy rain and strong gusty winds, but most areas will see only minimal rainfall. - Areas of localized fire weather concerns will persist. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Near term focus will be storm development through the afternoon and the most likely corridor will be downstream of wave currently passing across SE KS. Satellite trends show Cu field developing into NW AR and likely marks the onset of lift impinging upon an increasingly unstable airmass. Short term guidance has been in good agreement with storms developing across either far E OK or NW AR by mid afternoon and spreading ESE through the evening. This idea seems in line with observations. Slightly stronger flow aloft and ample instability will support a risk of severe weather with the focus becoming more east of the local region by early evening. Further west precip coverage will remain low, however ample cloud cover and cold front pushing south behind the SE KS wave are all helping keep temps below advisory levels at least for today. Overnight there may be renewed elevated convection along a corridor atop the stalled frontal zone. Considerable uncertainty in this placement but mentionable chances for far eastern OK and NW AR through Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Saturday) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Hot temperatures return Sunday as cloud cover and precip chances appear lower during the day. Thunderstorm complex may develop Sunday evening into the overnight areas and spread across the area with the most likely zone currently seen as far eastern OK and western AR through Monday morning. Hot temperatures and high heat stress conditions will remain a concern through early week as any relief from persistent rain will be localized. Potential for minor heat relief and a chance of shower and storms may return by mid to late week as the upper ridge now appears to remain anchored across the western CONUS leaving NW flow aloft through the Plains. This would allow a chance for a weak cold front to move into the region and at least bring a chance of rain and slightly cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Remnants of convection that developed central Oklahma and Kansas early this morning continues to spread southeast across and into portions of ern OK early this afternoon, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the area. Activity across sern KS is more organized and widespread, and good chance it impacts nwrn AR sites this afternoon. Additional development that area is possible into early this evening as short wave approaches from the northwest, with nonzero chances continuing overnight. Outside of convection, conditions will be VFR with extensive mid and high cloudiness over the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 74 97 76 101 / 20 10 30 0 FSM 74 99 75 100 / 40 20 30 20 MLC 73 103 78 107 / 30 10 20 0 BVO 70 95 71 99 / 10 10 40 0 FYV 69 94 70 94 / 30 20 60 20 BYV 69 91 69 91 / 20 20 60 20 MKO 72 97 74 102 / 20 10 30 0 MIO 70 93 71 96 / 20 20 60 20 F10 72 99 76 106 / 20 10 20 0 HHW 74 102 78 104 / 30 10 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...69  533 FXUS65 KABQ 221737 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1137 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1130 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue today and Saturday mainly along and west of the central mountain chain with a risk of cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts, and ponding of water on roads. - Smoke from the Frijoles Fire will continue to impact air quality in the vicinity of the fire this week. - Moderate-to-high heat risk will impact much of central and eastern New Mexico this weekend through the middle of next week with record and near-record high temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 152 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A 598 DAM high pressure center will move over eastern NM today causing high temperatures to climb a few to 5 degrees there from Friday's readings. The upper high will remain centered over eastern NM on Sunday. Readings today and Sunday will vary around 5-12 degrees above 1991-2020 averages with numerous near-record high temperatures, and even a few record highs in the east. With this forecast package, will issue a Heat Advisory for the Tucumcari and Roswell areas this afternoon and early evening. High clouds moving over Tucumcari at this time shakes confidence there some, but figure the high pressure center will suppress those as it moves overhead enabling temps to reach 105 F across at least parts of Quay and Chaves Counties. Meanwhile, humidities will trend downward some in most locations today and Sunday. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will favor western and northern areas both days, and high res models suggest there will probably also be a few cells over central areas today. With the decreasing humidities locally heavy rainfall will be less of a concern today, then even less-so Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 152 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Models generally depict the center of high pressure aloft shifting over southeast NM Monday, westward over southwest NM Tuesday and Wednesday, then a little farther west over the southwest NM border on Thursday and Friday. This will enable record and near-record high temperatures to continue each afternoon with the most widespread record high temperatures on Monday. Hazardous heat looks to return to the Roswell area again on Monday, which should make the third day in a row with a high temperature of 105 F. A series of backdoor fronts will increase Gulf moisture over eastern areas each day during the first half of the work week, while western humidities continue to trend lower with each day. The favored location for showers and thunderstorms will begin to shift over and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains Monday and Tuesday, along and east of the northern and central mountains Wednesday, then along and east of the central mountain chain on Thursday. The risk of locally heavy rainfall will mainly be over eastern areas Tuesday through Thursday, where PWATs will climb over 1 inch. With northwest flow aloft over eastern areas, there will probably be a few strong-to-severe storms each afternoon and evening. At this time, shear and instability look most elevated on Tuesday and Wednesday, when the greatest coverage of severe storms is expected. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Less overall shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast today with storms tending to be focused over the western and northern high terrain early in the afternoon before struggling to fill into nearby valleys and lower elevations through the early evening. Storms will be capable of producing small hail, lightning, gusty downburst winds, and brief downpours that will temporarily reduce ceilings and visibility. Storms will mostly come to an end before midnight with just a few stray showers lingering into the early morning Sunday. A similar thunderstorm pattern will unfold again on Sunday. Hot temperatures and high density altitude readings will cause aircraft performance to deteriorate for some. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 152 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Critically low minimum humidities will be pretty widespread over eastern areas today and Sunday. Sub-15 percent humidities will then increase in coverage with each day over central and western areas during the work week, while decreasing in coverage over eastern areas with the arrival of Gulf moisture. With decreasing size of wetting footprints west of the Rio Grande during the work week, there will be an increasing threat of new fire starts as spotty showers and storms return mainly to the mountains each afternoon and temperatures reach near-record readings. Otherwise, the main fire weather concern will be gusty and erratic thunderstorm outflow, which will decrease in coverage with each day through Monday, then increase again with each day across the east starting Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 95 66 94 64 / 10 20 10 5 Dulce........................... 91 52 90 51 / 30 30 30 20 Cuba............................ 89 59 88 60 / 30 20 20 20 Gallup.......................... 89 57 90 57 / 50 30 30 30 El Morro........................ 85 56 85 55 / 70 40 40 30 Grants.......................... 88 58 89 58 / 60 20 40 20 Quemado......................... 85 58 86 58 / 60 20 40 20 Magdalena....................... 87 63 88 63 / 40 20 20 10 Datil........................... 83 58 85 58 / 50 20 30 20 Reserve......................... 91 58 93 57 / 50 20 30 10 Glenwood........................ 96 63 98 64 / 30 20 20 10 Chama........................... 84 53 83 52 / 40 30 40 20 Los Alamos...................... 87 64 86 63 / 30 20 40 40 Pecos........................... 89 59 89 59 / 20 20 10 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 86 57 84 56 / 40 30 60 30 Red River....................... 79 45 77 46 / 50 30 50 30 Angel Fire...................... 83 42 81 38 / 40 20 30 30 Taos............................ 90 57 88 56 / 20 20 40 20 Mora............................ 86 55 86 55 / 30 30 30 30 Espanola........................ 94 60 93 61 / 20 20 30 30 Santa Fe........................ 90 63 89 63 / 10 20 20 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 93 61 92 62 / 10 20 10 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 95 68 94 69 / 10 20 5 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 96 69 95 70 / 10 20 5 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 97 66 97 64 / 10 20 5 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 96 68 96 68 / 10 20 10 20 Belen........................... 98 67 98 67 / 10 10 5 5 Bernalillo...................... 97 68 96 67 / 10 20 5 20 Bosque Farms.................... 97 65 97 64 / 10 20 5 10 Corrales........................ 97 68 97 67 / 10 20 5 20 Los Lunas....................... 97 66 97 66 / 10 10 5 10 Placitas........................ 94 66 93 67 / 10 20 5 20 Rio Rancho...................... 96 68 95 68 / 10 20 5 20 Socorro......................... 98 70 99 70 / 10 10 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 89 63 89 64 / 10 20 5 20 Tijeras......................... 90 64 90 64 / 10 20 5 20 Edgewood........................ 91 60 90 61 / 10 20 5 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 92 57 92 57 / 10 20 5 10 Clines Corners.................. 89 6189 61 / 10 20 5 10 Mountainair..................... 91 61 91 61 / 10 20 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 90 62 91 62 / 10 10 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 93 67 94 68 / 20 10 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 86 58 87 60 / 30 10 10 0 Capulin......................... 90 58 88 56 / 20 20 50 40 Raton........................... 93 58 91 55 / 10 20 50 30 Springer........................ 96 58 94 56 / 10 30 40 40 Las Vegas....................... 90 58 90 58 / 10 20 20 20 Clayton......................... 98 67 97 66 / 5 10 30 40 Roy............................. 94 63 95 61 / 5 20 20 30 Conchas......................... 102 70 102 69 / 0 10 5 20 Santa Rosa...................... 98 68 99 67 / 0 10 5 10 Tucumcari....................... 102 71 103 71 / 0 5 0 10 Clovis.......................... 100 70 100 71 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 101 71 102 72 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 101 70 102 70 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 103 70 105 71 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 97 66 98 67 / 10 0 5 0 Elk............................. 92 62 93 63 / 10 5 5 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ234-238. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...52  497 FXUS65 KPSR 221736 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1036 AM MST Sat Aug 22 2026 .UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - High temperatures reach or exceed 110 degrees nearly every day through the next week and will be within a few degrees of daily records, while morning lows remain unusually warm. - Extreme Heat Warnings are in effect through Friday evening with daily major to extreme HeatRisk. - Thunderstorms will primarily favor higher terrain areas through early next week, with drier and less favorable conditions next week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Extreme heat will be the primary weather hazard through the short and long term forecast. Early morning objective analysis shows a 596dm high pressure centered over CO/NM. Models show that this high will slowly progress eastward through the beginning of next week. Despite the center of the high moving away from our region, H5 heights over our region will remain in a 594-597dm range. With heights of this magnitude, the NBM continues to show afternoon highs (morning lows) of 110-116 (83-91) degrees across the lower deserts and 100-110 (70-80) degrees across the higher terrain areas. Temperatures of this magnitude are 5-8 degrees above daily normals and some locations could tie or break their daily records (see Climate section below). These temperatures will lead to widespread high-end moderate to major HeatRisk across much of the CWA and therefore the Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect. The best thunderstorm chances will exist across the higher terrain areas through the beginning of next week with only slight chances for some isolated activity across the lower deserts. Thunderstorm chances across the lower deserts for this afternoon are around 10- 20%. While some hi-res models (HRRR and RRFS) are trying to pick up on some more scattered activity across south- central AZ (including the Phoenix Metro), they are likely overdoing the coverage. Models show limited moisture today (PWATs of 1.0-1.3"), mixing ratios only around 6-7 g/kg, MUCAPE values less then 500 J/kg, and around 25-50 J/kg of CIN. The hi-res models showing scattered to widespread activity for this evening are likely picking up on some upper-level divergence and colliding outflows. While there will likely be multiple outflows moving off the higher terrain this evening not much activity (other than some isolated showers and maybe a few isolated storms) is expected even if they do collide due to all the limiting factors mentioned earlier. Strong to locally severe wind gusts and areas of blowing dust will be the primary hazard with any storm this afternoon and evening, with high DCAPE values (1800-2000 J/kg). Models are in decent agreement that there will be a slight increase in moisture on Sunday and Monday (PWATs increase to around 1.1-1.6" across the area) with the highest moisture expected on Monday. Instability will be about the same on Sunday as today, but will increase to around 1000-1500 J/kg on Monday. Additionally, mixing rations will increase to around 10 g/kg on Monday. Despite the increase in moisture, instability, and mixing ratios models show an increase in CIN (100-200 J/kg). Activity each day will depend on how the day prior plays out. But right now, Monday looks to have slightly better chances than Sunday. Either way, most of the lower deserts are expected to remain dry with the best chances (and coverage) of thunderstorms expected across the higher terrain areas to the east of the Phoenix Metro. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/... Ensemble members are in good agreement that by Tuesday drier air will start to filter back into the region as the subtropical high starts to retrograde back over our region. By the middle of the week the center of the high will be straddling the AZ/NM border and by the end of the week the center of the high will be over AZ. As the high moves overhead, PWATs will drop into a 0.8-1.2" range across our region and steering flow will be out of the S/SW. The combination of these factors will lead to poor chances for thunderstorm development across the region. The NBM shows that Tuesday and Wednesday there could be enough moisture around to support isolated thunderstorm chances for the higher terrain areas. But by the end of next week thunderstorm chances for our area shut off and will mainly be relegated to the Mogollon Rim. Unusually hot temperatures will be the main story next week. As mentioned above the subtropical high will slowly retrograde back over our region beginning on Tuesday, which will result in a gradual warming trend for our area. The high is also expected to strengthen to around 596-598dam during this time. The combination of the center settling over our region and strengthening will result in temperatures heating up to around 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Afternoon highs (morning lows) are forecasted to be in the 110-116 (85-95) degree range across the lower deserts and in the 100-110 (75-85) degree range across the higher terrain areas. The increase in temperatures will also result in an increase in HeatRisk, with widespread extreme HeatRisk forecast for the majority of the CWA by Wednesday. There remains high confidence in the heat forecast for next week. So, the Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through next Friday and will likely need to be expanded to more areas by the middle of the week and may eventually need to be extended into next weekend. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1735Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Uncertainty in TSRA/SHRA coverage and corresponding gusty outflow winds/wind shifts will be the primary forecast challenge through Sunday afternoon under periods of mid/high cloud decks. Confidence is good that light E/SE or VRB winds will slowly transition to W/SW by mid to late afternoon. TS development over higher terrain areas may send gusty outflow winds towards the Phoenix terminals during the late afternoon/early evening. Current Hi-Res guidance shows the best coverage of showers and storms will be over Southwestern Pinal County, which would make a southerly outflow the most likely/predominant favored direction. While direct TS impacts are not likely at the terminals, briefly gusty winds and decaying SHRA could affect operations early-mid evening. If more concentrated storms can materialize along with multiple colliding outflow boundaries, better chances for isolated TS development in lower elevations will be enhanced with stronger and more prolonged wind gusts. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major weather issues will exist through Sunday morning under mostly clear skies. Trends in winds should be similar to the past 24 hours, generally varying between SE and SW with extended periods of nearly calm conditions in between. TS activity over the Baja spine late this afternoon may send an outflow and decaying SHRA towards KIPL prior to sunset. Chances for direct TSRA impacts are too low to include in the TAF, however gusty SW winds justify a continued mention through the early evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and seasonally dry conditions are expected nearly every day, through next week. Aside from a brief increase in moisture Sunday- Monday, minimum RH values each afternoon will be around 12-18% (15- 25% Sun-Mon). Temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees above normal through the next week, with lower desert highs eclipsing 110 degrees most afternoons. There will be slight chances for storms each afternoon through Monday, but they will mostly favor the higher terrain areas. Drier conditions, with lower storm chances are expected by the middle of next week. Outside of thunderstorm outflow winds, winds will follow the typical diurnal tendencies with some modest afternoon upslope gustiness. && .CLIMATE... Record highs: Date Phoenix Yuma El Centro ---- ------- ---- --------- Aug 22 113 in 2011 115 in 1969 117 in 1969 Aug 23 114 in 2011 115 in 2011 116 in 1969 Aug 24 115 in 2020 119 in 1985 117 in 1985 Aug 25 113 in 2011 116 in 1962 117 in 1962 Aug 26 117 in 2011 115 in 2020 115 in 1981 Aug 27 114 in 2023 120 in 1981 117 in 1981 Aug 28 117 in 2023 118 in 2023 117 in 2009 && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Friday for AZZ530>555-559- 560. CA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for CAZ562-565>567- 569-570. && $$ SHORT TERM...Berislavich LONG TERM...Berislavich AVIATION...Whittock/18 FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich/Benedict CLIMATE...18  559 FXUS63 KDMX 221737 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1237 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Generally quiet weather for the upcoming week, with daily high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid-80s. - Decent rain chances (around 50%) late Sunday night and Monday, otherwise only low and spotty chances for most of the week. - Early signs of a somewhat more active weather pattern next weekend, with a return of more persistent rain chances but any details still unclear at this range. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 An omega blocking pattern is attempting to set up across North America, but is not fully entrenched. At 500 MB a large ridge is entrenched across the southern High Plains and over toward the Four Corners region, bringing near-record warmth to parts of that area, and extending far northward into Central Canada. Meanwhile, two troughs are present with the western one just coming ashore over the U.S. Pacific Northwest, while downstream, another trough is digging from Hudson Bay down across Ontario and into the U.S. Great Lakes region. Iowa currently lies beneath the brisk northwesterly steering flow between the ridge and the eastern trough. At the surface, a large high pressure area is spilling down from the Canadian plains into the Midwest, heralding relatively quiet and comfortable weather for Iowa this weekend. High temperatures will range in the upper 70s to lower 80s both today and Sunday, with dewpoints generally in the 50s and 60s. This will make for a glorious weekend for most late summer outdoor activities. Tonight into early Sunday, as the ridge settles across Iowa and winds to light to calm beneath virtually clear skies, we should radiate nicely with temperatures falling into the 50s in much of the state. Some guidance outputs light fog around sunrise Sunday, however, most does not and given relatively dry soils and more organized winds right off the deck, as well as the sparsity of wispy fog that occurred this morning, do not believe probability or impacts are sufficient to justify adding it to the forecast for Sunday morning. During the day on Sunday, the Pacific Northwest 500 MB trough will begin to move east northeastward around the periphery of the High Plains ridge, which will begin to flatten the northward part of the ridge and allow a subtle shortwave impulse to overtop it ahead of the main trough. This shortwave will move over or near Iowa on Sunday night into Monday and bring a return of rain chances to our forecast area. Initially, there will be substantial dry air to overcome per forecast soundings, so while a few model solutions attempt to bring isolated showers into our western and southwestern counties late in the day Sunday, have held POPs out until later Sunday night when saturation may achieve sufficient depth to support rain chances. These chances will then continue during the day Monday before fading out as the shortwave moves away to the east. Instability will be very limited with this system so while scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast, severe weather is not currently anticipated. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 By Monday night the eastern 500 MB trough will have shifted over Quebec, while the western one crosses from Saskatchewan into Manitoba, then subsequently shifts east southeastward into the Lake Superior region by Wednesday. In Iowa this will be concurrent with a very light surface pressure/flow pattern, resulting in nebulous low rain chances at times from Monday night into Wednesday. As the 500 MB trough moves over Lake Superior, it will help push a large surface high pressure area down the northern High Plains and Midwest during this time, later bringing relatively comfortable and dry weather from around Wednesday night through Friday. The onset of the influence of this surface ridge will take the form of a modest trough, pushing through ahead of the main mid-level shortwave sometime around Tuesday night. Differences in timing and the sharpness of the trough lead to a high variability in model solutions, however, there does appear to be some potential for good destabilization on Tuesday afternoon/evening and also potential for moderate deep-layer (0-6 KM) shear of perhaps 30-35 KT or so. Again, there is significant variability in these solutions and much will depend on diurnal timing, but it is possible if the trough has enough low-level convergence and comes through during peak diurnal heating time, there may be a narrow window of opportunity for pulse storms with a severe weather threat late Tuesday. A more likely scenario, however, is that the trough comes through overnight with much less instability and/or weaker shear, or that the trough is too weak and low-level convergence is not sufficient to support stronger updrafts, or both. By next weekend, the 500 MB pattern should begin to shift just a bit, with the ridge flattening and shifting a bit toward the southwestern U.S., while a more zonal flow pattern sets up across the northern CONUS and Iowa. This would favor a somewhat more active weather regime in our region, with persistent rain chances likely returning. Of course that is still a week-plus out, but something to keep an eye on in the coming days. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 TAFs are VFR with no aviation impacts anticipated. There is a very low chance (<20%) of shallow fog around sunrise Sunday, but both probability and coverage/impact if it were to occur are too low for any TAF mention. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lee LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...Lee  571 FXUS63 KIND 221738 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 138 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A very isolated shower or storm possible this afternoon. - Cooler and less humid weather expected through Tuesday. - The next best chance for rain will be Wednesday Night through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION (This evening through Saturday)... Issued at 138 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Surface analysis early this afternoon shows broad low pressure in place over Ontario. A weak trough within this flow has pushed east of Indiana into Ohio, and westerly flow was in place. Some SCT-BKN CU had developed over Central Indiana and was quickly pushing east. Aloft, strong ridging was in place over the Rockies, resulting in lee side subsidence spilling across the northern plains and into the Ohio Valley on NW flow. Dew points across Central Indiana were mainly in the mid 60s and skies were clear over IL and IA, building toward Indiana. Tonight and Sunday... Upper ridging is expected to build east tonight and Sunday toward the upper midwest. This will keep NW flow in place across Indiana and allow subsidence to continue to build across our region. Strong surface high pressure will build across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will result in a mostly clear night and a mostly sunny Sunday. Highs will reach the upper 70s to around 80 on Sunday. Monday... Another pleasant late summer day will be in place on Monday, as ridging aloft continues to be in place over the upper midwest, allowing NW flow to continue to flow across Indiana with subsidence. Models suggest strong surface high pressure in place, stretching from Ontario to the deep south. Forecast soundings remain very dry during this period, thus another mostly sunny/partly cloudy day will be expected with highs in the lower 80s. Tuesday through Saturday... The upper pattern for much of the latter parts of the forecast will remain consistently from the NW. Stronger ridging aloft over the western CONUS looks to continue this ongoing NW flow across the upper midwest and into the Ohio Valley. An exception within this pattern will be on Thursday as an upper trough within the NW flows will push through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, providing some upper support. This feature will push a cold front across Central Indiana on Thursday, resulting in our best chances of the week for some light precipitation. Otherwise, surface high pressure due to the lee side subsidence aloft will continue to be dominate on Tuesday-Wednesday and again on Friday and Saturday. Expect temperatures to remain at or slightly below seasonal normals. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 1251 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Impacts: - A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out through 23Z - Low chance for brief fog at outlying sites overnight. Discussion: VFR conditions are expected the Taf Period as high pressure over the northern high plains builds across Central Indiana through the Taf period. ACARS soundings show a limited CAP in place and CU is developing. With plenty of mid level drying building across the area, storm development is not expected, but a stray shower/storm cannot be ruled out. Confidence remains too low for a mention. Fog is possible at the outlying sites late tonight, due to clear skies and low dew point depressions. After any morning fog, VFR will continue as we remain under the influence of high pressure. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ AVIATION...Puma DISCUSSION...Puma  639 FXUS63 KPAH 221740 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1240 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 20-40% chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. An isolated gusty strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out, with the greatest risk over southeast Missouri. - A 30-40% chance of patchy fog is possible early Sunday morning, especially across portions of western Kentucky and southeast Missouri. - Temperatures and humidity levels will be seasonable next week with a 20-30% chance of daily isolated showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A trailing cold front associated with sfc low pressure over the Great Lakes region is pushing south across the FA. While most of the CAMs have very little development along the boundary this afternoon, the NSSL/RRFS still support some development that is currently ongoing south of STL. Have increased NBM PoPs to a 20-40% chance across the southern counties where dewpoints will remain higher near 70 degrees. This translates to 3000 to 4000 J/kg of SBCAPE with about 35 kts of effective bulk shear. Combined with 1000 J/kg of DCAPE and 8.0 to 8.5 C/km low-level lapse rates, the main concern will be damaging winds where SPC has a D1 marginal. Overall, expecting coverage to be sparse at best, but the probability is the greatest over southeast Missouri. For tonight, a sfc ridge of high pressure begins to build south from Manitoba as a broad upper-level trough settles over the Ohio Valley with northwest flow. Clear skies will allow for the boundary layer to decouple, with a 30-40% chance of patchy fog. The greatest coverage is favored south of the Ohio River where the crossover temperature will be higher. Otherwise, the FA will be between a western 597 dm ridge over the southwest CONUS and a trough in the northeast that will send a series of shortwaves downstream through the week. Rain chances are pretty sporadic at a 20-30% chance as the timing is highly variable. Not seeing a strong signal for severe weather, but may need to keep an eye on Wednesday when a warm front lifts north. The heat and humidity will remain at seasonable levels for the latter half of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A cold front is pushing south across the region with northwest winds between 7-11 kts and isolated gusts between 15-20 kts. There is a PROB30 of TSRA at KCGI/KPAH due to the rapid development south of STL, while the chances are too low for TAF mention further east. Mid- level clouds will give way to clear skies and calm winds tonight as high pressure builds into the region. Patchy fog is possible early Sunday morning, especially across the southern terminals. Winds after sunrise increase to 5-7 kts out of the north-northwest. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...DW  785 FXUS63 KGRB 221744 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1244 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and storms (20-60% chance) north- central to eastern WI this afternoon. A strong storm could produce gusty winds and hail. - Dry weather returns Sunday and Monday, with a period of unsettled weather arriving for the middle of next week. - Slightly below normal temps this weekend, then a return to near normal readings for most of next week. Lows Sunday night may drop into the 30s north-central. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Near term through Sunday...Northwest flow and shortwave diving across this afternoon during peak heating will result in isolated to scattered showers through 7p, especially far northeast WI and on across Door County. While weak deep layer shear (less than 25 kts) limits overall storm organization and the severe threat, MLCAPEs up to 1000 J/kg, inverted-V soundings, very steep low- level lapse rates, and lower freezing levels will promote some gustier winds and small hail in the stronger showers/storms. Northwest winds will be breezy at 15 to 25 mph this afternoon, before diminishing this evening. Closer approach of sfc high will bring dry weather tonight into Sunday. Upper trough (cold air aloft) close enough to lead to another partly to mostly cloudy afternoon as fair weather cu blossoms. Northwest winds will be a little lighter on Sunday, but could still gust to 20 mph. Extended...Dry, but chilly Sunday night with high overhead and low PWATs allowing for good radiational cooling. MOS guidance already suggesting that typical cold spots up north could drop into the mid to upper 30s. Next chance for showers and some storms arrives Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon as a sharp mid- level trough and sfc cold front work through. If cold front is slower on Wednesday (ECMWF), there would be better chance for a few stronger storms over eastern WI that afternoon. Instability appears modest with this mid-week feature, keeping severe risk low. Machine learning is mixed at best on severe potential. Then, similar to today post fropa, steeper lapse rates and peak heating may yield another round of isolated to scattered showers and storms on Thursday. Temperatures...After the cooling this weekend into early Monday, temps return to near or even slightly above normal with highs mainly in the mid 70s to low 80s. Normal highs for the coming week start off in the 77-78F range, but by next weekend fall off into the mid 70s. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Expect low end VFR clouds with isolated to scattered showers primarily impacting northeast to east-central WI. TS potential there, but timing, location not certain enough to include in TAFs other than at MTW where a TS is already nearby. Terminals most favored to be impacted are GRB/ATW/MTW. Only a few lingering mid clouds are expected after sunset through rest of tonight. Sunday looks dry, but fair weather cu will blossom by late morning on into the afternoon. Northwest winds will gust to 20 kts this afternoon, then ease to under 10 kts after sunset. Northwest winds may gust again on Sunday to around 15 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Northwest winds of 10-20 kts with gusts to 25 kts expected tonight into Sunday morning behind re-inforcing cold front. Have hoisted Small Craft Advisory for the central Bay and for Lake Michigan nearshore waters north of Sturgeon Bay. Strongest winds will be near Death's Door and Washington Island. Offshore winds will limit waves to 1 to 3 ft for most spots on the bay and nearshore waters, with any 3-4 foot waves staying in the open waters. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....JLA AVIATION.......JLA MARINE.........JLA  844 FXUS64 KOUN 221745 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1239 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Excessive heat continues through the weekend and into next week. - Isolated to scattered rain/storms are possible most days. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Although perhaps not as strong as last night, there is an area of warm air advection that develops overnight across central sections of Oklahoma up into Kansas. This should result in at least a few showers and perhaps thunderstorms after midnight. Currently most likely area would be near and just east of I-35 corridor. The NAM NEST is the most aggressive, while others have almost nothing, so will lean somewhere is the middle as far as chances late tonight into Saturday morning. Other isolated activity farther west and south appears possible as well. In addition to this, models hint at the potential for another complex of storms moving out of Kansas around 8-10am and then moving south and southeast across much of the eastern half of Oklahoma during the day Saturday, skirting the OKC metro area. Although inconsistencies in the models keep overall confidence rather low. Much like yesterday, this will keep a fairly large area with at least a period of cloud cover and possibly precip through the morning before possibly clearing out in the afternoon, allowing temperatures to climb, just how high is the question. There could be a tight temperature gradient somewhere near or just west of I-35 Saturday afternoon. Some models are redeveloping convection during the afternoon on residual boundaries from morning activity, mainly near and south of I-40. With the very hot surface temperatures and inverted-V type soundings expected by afternoon. A few severe wind gusts will be possible with this activity. This will also make it a difficult forecast with regards to heat headlines, but will lean a little more liberally with the potential and have added several counties farther north and east into the advisory. Still a chance that a some counties may need to be added as things evolve today and a few might even need to be upgraded, but confidence at this point is not there. Will also need to continue to watch fire weather conditions across western and southwestern Oklahoma into north Texas where the heat, low afternoon humidity and stressed vegetation will result in some areas of elevated fire weather. Possible outflow from convection will also be a concern. This outflow could also be a focus for additional afternoon and evening convective development across southern Oklahoma into north Texas. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 After the evening potential storms, the remainder of Saturday night and Sunday look to be dry as upper ridge tries to reassert itself further east across Oklahoma and north Texas. Any residual boundary will likely wash out or quickly lift back northward early Sunday leaving only north central Oklahoma to remain in the 90s Sunday afternoon with the remainder of the area once again climbing into the triple digits with southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas possible above 110 degrees. Winds will be rather light (10-15mph) Sunday, but the extreme heat and low humidity will again create elevated fire weather conditions, especially across western and southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas Sunday afternoon. The upper ridge remains the dominate feature as we go into Monday, meaning very little chance of precip. Additionally the models are showing a surface low that develops in northwest Oklahoma and then drifts east and southeast through the day with a trailing surface boundary. A lot will depend on the location of this boundary through the day, but along and south of it we will see a pre-frontal torch with higher 850mb temperatures and stronger surface and low level westerly winds. This will heighten the fire weather concerns Monday afternoon in these areas with near critical conditions developing. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 This boundary may linger into Tuesday with slightly cooler temperatures across the northern half of the area, but still baking across the south with temperatures once again approaching 110 degrees. The ridge looks to push off to the southwest a bit as well which allows better northwest flow to develop and slightly cooler temperatures (still above normal). Although a few afternoon showers/storms not out of the question Tuesday afternoon, a better upper shortwave drops southeast out of the High Plains as we go into Tuesday night and Wednesday. This should bring, at least to northwest Oklahoma, a better chance of rain as storms move off the higher terrain and slide southeast into Oklahoma. Scattered activity may continue through the end of the week as the northwest flow regime continues to bring some minor shortwaves overhead. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Strong to severe storms are possible later this afternoon and into the evening for areas generally south of I-40. However, greatest chances appear to be near KLAW and KSPS, with damaging wind gusts possible. In addition, LLWS is possible during the early morning hours on Sunday at KSPS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 75 103 80 107 / 10 10 10 0 Hobart OK 76 109 82 110 / 10 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 79 109 83 110 / 10 0 0 0 Gage OK 71 105 73 104 / 0 0 10 0 Ponca City OK 72 95 73 102 / 0 10 10 0 Durant OK 76 107 81 109 / 20 10 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ011-012-014>019- 021>025-027>029-033>041-044>046-050. TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...01  794 FXUS65 KCYS 221744 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1144 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected this weekend, with the possibility of widespread rain on Saturday. A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon. - Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue Monday through the end of the week with slightly above average temperature expected until Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 158 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Not many changes made to the previous forecast with a relatively wet and warm pattern expected to continue through the last full week of August. Current surface observations across the region show ample low to midlevel moisture with dewpoints remaining in the upper 50s and mid 60s across the eastern plains. A drier airmass is located over central and south central Wyoming, with dewpoints in the 30s and 40s. Expect this to change today as IR and Watervapor Satellite loop shows the next monsoon moisture plume lifting northeast out of Utah and Nevada at this hour and into Wyoming later this morning. This plume, in addition to a potent upper level shortwave, is forecast to drift eastward around the periphery of the upper level high to our south. This will also flatten the upper level ridge axis currently over the Front Range and result in slightly cooler temperatures. NAEFS still show PWATs between 1.00 (west of I-25) to 1.50 (east) across the region, and may have trended a bit higher compared to yesterday with values approaching a two week maximum between 18z and 00z for late August and early September. Getting some signals for excessive rainfall, especially if any outflow boundary interactions are considered. Kept POP above 40% for most of the area with scattered to numerous coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Not a lot of shear, however, so severe thunderstorms aren't as likely. There is a marginal risk for Severe thunderstorms across the eastern plains of southeast Wyoming and the southwest Nebraska panhandle...mainly for gusty winds. Can't rule out some marginally large hail, but thunderstorms will likely be linear lines and multicell clusters with straight hodographs through the afternoon and occasional periods of weaker shear ahead of the upper level disturbance. Could see some respectable rainfall amounts with short range ensembles showing a good chance of a half inch of rain, particularly along the I-80 corridor, and along/north of highway 20 over east central Wyoming and the northern Nebraska panhandle as the shortwave axis moves east through the region later this evening. Cooler today with highs in the 80s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. For Sunday, models show some drier air attempting to move into the forecast area through the day due to increasing west to northwest winds behind Saturday's shortwave disturbance. Surface winds are expected to increase a bit out of the west with gusts of 25 to 35 MPH possible, especially across southeast Wyoming. With drier conditions and a lack of forcing, expect shower and thunderstorm coverage to be lower into the evening hours with widely scattered coverage, mainly further south along the I-80 corridor. 0-6km shear is a little more favorable for organized convection though, especially over the southern Nebraska Panhandle. Kept POP between 20 to 35 percent near the Colorado border with POP around 15 percent north of I-80. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 131 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Monday...Coverage of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms increases somewhat by an increase in monsoonal moisture and lowering 700 mb temperatures providing less convective inhibition, CIN, compared to Sunday. As is this type of pattern, afternoon convection will be over and near the mountains due to differential heating and orographic effects, with the activity spreading across the rest of the forecast area before dissipation by late evening. Warmer temperatures compared to the previous day due to less cloud cover and convective coverage. Tuesday...Similar pattern synoptically to Monday with minor perturbations in the flow aloft aiding in lift of monsoonal moisture to produce widely scattered to scattered afternoon convection over and near our Snowy, Sierra Madre and northern Laramie Ranges, with the activity spreading eastward across the rest of the forecast area in the evening. Some lowering of mid level temperatures suggests daytime maximum temperatures will be a little cooler. Wednesday...The primary change compared to Tuesday, will be a reinforcement of the ridge aloft axis over Wyoming, inducing a return to upslope mechanical lift aiding the areal increase of showers and thunderstorms, especially east of the mountains and along the I-25 corridor and eastward. Slight warming trend with 700 mb temperatures near 13 Celsius yielding high temperatures in the 80s. Thursday-Friday...Monsoonal moisture becomes a bit more scant with decent westerly flow aloft and with warm temperatures aloft producing more convective inhibition, CIN, to limit development. A slight warming trend continues based on mid level, 700 mb temperature trends. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1136 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A mix of flight categories expected over the next 24 hours. Some low stratus are beginning to clear away from BFF, but may linger for another hour or two. Thereafter, look for mid level clouds to move in through the day, with thunderstorms possible this evening across all sites. Any storms could lower CIGs to MVFR status, with MVFR to possibly brief IFR VIS. Thereafter, clouds will lift and clear through the night into tomorrow morning. Winds breezy at 15-25 knots, higher with any nearby storms causing gusty and erratic conditions, with similar winds overnight into tomorrow morning. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...CG  015 FXUS62 KRAH 221747 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 147 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Drier, cooler, less humidity Sunday into Tuesday night. * Shower and storm chances return with higher humidity late next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 208 AM Saturday... 1) Lingering showers and storms are possible again today, with a possible low-end severe risk over the northwest Piedmont. 2) Drier weather, along with lower relative humidities and cooler temperatures, is expected Sunday into mid-week. PM shower and storm chances return mid to late next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 208 AM Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Lingering showers and storms are possible again today, with a possible low-end severe risk over the northwest Piedmont. Central NC continues to be in that moist and unstable pattern today. An upper-level trough will remain to our west through tonight as a shortwave dives southeastward into the Lower Great Lakes. Tied to that shortwave trough will be a surface cold front slated to move through portions of central NC by early Sunday morning. A surface front persists across our southern and eastern zones, and will be a continued focus for off and on isolated, to at times scattered, showers and storms this morning and afternoon to the early evening hours. However, confidence on overall coverage is not particularly high. Across the west, the approaching shortwave this evening, ahead of the cold front, will favor some isolated/scattered storm activity across the northwest Piedmont, perhaps holding together before dissipating east of the Triangle late tonight. Several HREF members indicate this potential in the 7pm to 1am time frame, though coverage may be quite isolated with timing being near sunset and slightly drier air working in from the west. If any storms can materialize, there is adequate deep shear of 30-35 kt with 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE. SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk of severe storms, just west of the Triad. We would not be surprised if that risk area is expanded eastward. Damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. KEY MESSAGE 2... Drier weather, along with lower relative humidities and cooler temperatures, is expected Sunday into mid- week. PM shower and storm chances return mid to late next week. A mid/upper level trough will be positioned over the eastern United States Sunday into mid-week. This will mean cooler and drier weather for our region as surface high pressure builds from the Midwest Sunday to the mid-Atlantic states by Wednesday. Cooler and drier air will advect into the region Sunday and Sunday night with highs in the mid to upper 80s Sunday, and lows Sunday night in the 60s. Monday into Wednesday will feature mostly sunny skies with dew points dipping into the 50s both Monday and Tuesday. Some return moisture will raise the dew points back into mostly 60s by Wednesday. Daytime highs should top out in the 83-88 range each day with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s (north-central to SE). A chance of mainly PM showers/storms will return as early as Wednesday (20-30 percent), and more likely Thursday (40-60 percent chance). Highs will return to the upper 80s to lower 90s by late week. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 145 PM Saturday... MVFR stratocumulus ceilings will continue to lift and/or scatter to VFR this afternoon, with related warming and destabilization that will allow for widely scattered convection to develop with the approach of a mid/upr-level disturbance from ern TN. The relative highest probability of occurrence of convection, generally between 30-60 percent, will be at INT/GSO this evening. A moist airmass will otherwise remain in place over much of cntl NC and probably support the development of at least patchy fog and low stratus overnight-Sun morning, especially at ern terminals, ahead of a cold front that will approach from the west and move across cntl NC early Sun. Outlook: High pressure and associated dry, continental air will build across the OH Valley and Middle Atlantic and favor mostly VFR conditions in cntl NC through Tue, before moisture and lift increase, and the chance of convection returns, by Wed-Thu. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kren/Badgett AVIATION...MWS  000 FXUS63 KLMK 221746 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 146 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through 8 PM EDT this evening along a cold front. A few strong to marginally severe storms are possible, particularly in the Bluegrass Region. The primary threats are isolated strong wind gusts and hail. * Dry and pleasant conditions are expected for Sunday through Tuesday. * Warmer temperatures (mid to upper 80s) and low rain chances return by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 146 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Conditions are dry and partly to mostly sunny this afternoon. A weak cold front has pushed into portions of northern and western KY early this afternoon. A mid and upper level shortwave trough is digging southeast over the Great Lakes, placing the Lower OH Valley in the exit region of a 45-50 kt northwesterly 500 mb jet over the Midwest. Low-level moisture continues to pool ahead of the cold front, with sfc dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. There is some drier air aloft, which will limit convective coverage this afternoon (peak PW axis of 1.4-1.5 inches in a relatively narrow corridor). The lowest levels continue to gradually warm and destabilize, with sfc temperatures in the low to mid 80s. MLCAPE is forecast to reach 2000-2500 J/kg across central KY, along and south of the frontal boundary. We are now seeing the beginnings of very isolated convective initiation across SW Ohio and eastern KY this afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered convection should fill in further SW along the cold front through mid-afternoon. Our highest PoPs (30-50% chance) remain focused over the Bluegrass Region, with the 30% contour stretching as far southwest as Bowling Green. Expect little, if any, convection west of I-65, however. The stronger mid-level flow streaming in from the NW will help boost deep-layer shear to 25-30 kts this afternoon. This would be enough for a loosely organized muticell cluster or two, again most likely in the Bluegrass Region. While strong to severe storms should be fairly sparse, the strongest cells will be capable of marginally severe hail and wind. The main time frame for isolated to widely scattered storms is 2-7 PM EDT. The cold front pushes well southeast of the area tonight. High pressure at the surface builds southeast over the Midwest through Sunday. The arrival of cooler, drier air from the northwest will make for a very pleasant end to the weekend. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 60s early Sunday morning. Sunday looks partly sunny, with a building SCT cumulus field during the afternoon. Expect afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. Early Monday morning, temperatures are forecast to dip into the 55-60 degree range. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 146 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Mainly dry conditions continue into early next week. Monday looks like a beautiful day, with relatively low humidity and afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. A weak mid-level shortwave trough zipping through NW flow will move over the region late Monday. However, a sfc warm front is forecast to set up to our southwest and keep higher rain chances focused across portions of MO, AR, and TN. Highs on Tuesday should reach the mid 80s. The latest model guidance pushes a warm front a little further north into central KY by Wednesday. With the development of broad upper level troughing, this could be enough for isolated to scattered showers and storms Wednesday afternoon and evening. An upper level trough continues to amplify in tandem with a sfc low across the Great Lakes heading into Thursday. This system should drag a coldfront through the region on Thursday, bringing at least a small chance (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid and upper 80s will be common Wednesday through the end of the forecast period. A few of our warmer spots may touch 90 on Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the cold front. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 129 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A cold front is moving across the region this afternoon, with winds veering from the W/SW to the NW across the boundary. Wind gusts of 15-25 kt will be possible this afternoon. SCT-BKN cu field has developed, with cloud bases mainly 4-5k ft, so would expect VFR conditions to continue this afternoon. An isolated shower or storm chance will continue in the forecast for LEX/RGA this afternoon, with confidence in storms being low-medium at best. Tonight, winds should relax after sunset, with light W/NW winds expected overnight. Winds may ease enough for patchy fog development at RGA/HNB/BWG Sunday morning, but confidence is too low at this time to include in the forecast. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EBW LONG TERM...EBW AVIATION...CSG  060 FXUS64 KOHX 221748 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1248 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1243 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Low chance for a thunderstorm mid afternoon through early evening, primarily east of I-65. Some storms could be strong to severe posing a threat for damaging wind gusts. - Slightly below-normal temperatures, particularly overnight, this weekend into early next week. - Low to medium rain and storm chances most days next week with && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A broad upper-level trough remains in place across the eastern CONUS today. An embedded disturbance is now advancing southeast through the Ohio Valley with an associated front now along the Ohio River making its way toward Middle Tennessee. Though it is relatively dry currently, slight moistening is expected ahead of the front as it approaches Middle Tennessee during peak afternoon heating. This will support increasing surface-based instability (2,000-3,000 J/kg) this afternoon within a nice corridor of mid- level flow (~40 kts). As a result, any storms that form and maintain this afternoon and evening will pose a threat for damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail up to quarter size. This band of convection should mainly be limited to 3 PM to 9 PM across Middle Tennessee and greatest overall chances are for areas east of I-65. The rest of the short-term looks dry and stable as we remain in northwest flow aloft and amidst an area of drier air behind the front moving through tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Cooler overnights and mornings will persist through early next week thanks to drier air in place. Higher terrain across the Plateau are forecast to have lows in the upper 50s Monday and Tuesday mornings. Troughing will make a slow progression to the east mid to late next week. This should open the door for an increase in moisture from the west. Continued mid- to upper-level flow will persist from the northwest providing a corridor for shortwaves to move through the area. These passing disturbances support the low to medium rain and storm chances most days next week. Temperatures are generally near seasonal norms. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with gusty N winds. A cold front is approaching from the NW and will bring some mid level clouds through Middle TN. Showers and storms are not expected to impact terminals so decided to not include with the latest TAF issuance. Will need to monitor as the front approaches for storm trends and will update TAFs as needed. Low to medium chances for fog to develop across the Plateau tonight and dissipate after 12z Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 64 89 62 88 / 20 0 0 0 Clarksville 63 86 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 60 82 58 83 / 20 0 0 0 Columbia 66 90 63 90 / 20 0 0 0 Cookeville 62 84 59 83 / 10 0 0 0 Jamestown 61 82 58 82 / 20 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 65 88 62 88 / 20 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 65 90 62 89 / 20 0 0 0 Waverly 65 87 63 87 / 10 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sizemore LONG TERM....Sizemore AVIATION.....Cravens  050 FXUS65 KTFX 221748 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1148 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms today, some storms will contain strong, gusty winds, heavy downpours capable of localized flooding over burn scars, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. - A surface front will bring gusty winds and elevated fire weather conditions on Sunday, there will also be a few lingering showers and storms east of I15, some may be strong to severe. - There will be a modest cooldown early next week with some widely scattered showers and storms, mostly over southwest Montana. && .UPDATE... /Issued 641 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026/ A small update was made this morning to reflect latest trends in showers. There is no change in thinking with respect to showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds and briefly heavy rain will be the primary concerns today. -AM && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 641 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: A subtle shortwave moving through an increasingly southwesterly flow aloft is bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning. This activity will continue to weaken as it moves northeastward, but may produce localized gusty winds, lightning, and brief downpours. Stronger forcing associated with a trough approaching from the Pacific NW still looks to send a more impactful wave of showers and thunderstorms through the forecast area later this afternoon and evening. ML CAPE looks to generally fall in the 400 to 900 J/kg range for most locations, but there are some pockets with values as high as 1500 J/kg over portions of central and southwest MT. Very warm and dry boundary layers will increase instances of strong gusty winds up to and exceeding 60 mph, especially if linear upscale growth takes place. Hail and brief downpours capable of flash flooding of normally flood prone areas will also be present with effective shear generally above 25 kts and PWATS surpassing the one inch mark in some areas. The focus of this activity will be over southwest MT and and along the Continental Divide, although at least some of it will move northeastward onto the plains during the late evening and perhaps the overnight hours. The Pacific NW trough will swing northeastward through W MT and into Canada on Sunday while its attendant surface front traverses the CWA and brings gusty westerly winds and elevated fire weather conditions. There will also be lingering instability for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, with some on the strong side, mainly for locations east of I15. Temperatures modestly cooldown Monday and Tuesday with some shower and thunderstorm activity in southwest MT. This looks to be followed by ridging aloft briefly rebuilding before a couple Pacific troughs move through the Northern Rockies during the mid to latter part of next week. These systems will bring more showers and thunderstorms ahead of them followed by gusty westerly winds in their wake. - RCG - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Scattered strong thunderstorm activity through Sunday... Higher quality forcing brings more impactful showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Strong gusty winds in excess of 60 mph and lightning will be the primary hazards, especially if the storms become linear and undergo upscale growth. This threat will be highest over southwest MT and along the Continental Divide. Some weakening is expected with this activity as it moves northeastward, though these same hazards apply to plains locations as well. In addition to the winds, there will be localized heavy downpours capable of flash flooding of burn scars and other flood prone locations, mainly in central and southwest MT where there is around a 10% chance for excessive rainfall and localized flooding. While this activity will be monitored for the aforementioned flash flooding, I will continue to hold off sending out flood products per the more scattered nature of higher rainfall rates and progressive storm motion. The focus of this activity shifts eastward on Sunday with a few stronger storms for locations east of I15. Central/north-central locations east and southeast of the highway 87 corridor will see the strongest storm ceiling with strong, gusty winds, hail, and downpours all on the table. - RCG && .AVIATION... 22/18Z TAF Period VFR conditions will prevail throughout this TAF period, with the exception of periods of MVFR conditions due to a passing thunderstorm. Thunderstorms will begin to develop in Southwest MT around 21Z, moving northeast throughout the evening. While confidence was too low in thunderstorms reaching KHVR to include in the TAF, an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing gusty, erratic winds, brief, heavy downpours, frequent lightning and hail. Periods of mountain obscuration will develop due to passing thunderstorms. For KGTF: Thunderstorms are expected to begin moving over KGTF as early as 01Z, and will be capable of producing gusty, erratic winds greater than 40 kt, frequent lightning, brief, heavy downpours and hail. Thunderstorms are expected to exit the area around 06Z. Outside of any gusty, erratic winds a thunderstorm may produce, the chance of a cross-wind greater than 15 kts is less than 10% due to a southwesterly direction. -Dzomba && .FIRE WEATHER... Widely scattered showers and storms with cloud to ground lightning and little or light precipitation will continue to weaken this morning as they move northeastward. Even though this activity is of lower grade, some new fire starts can't be ruled out. More productive storms move in this afternoon and evening, but increased cloud to ground lightning activity may still ignite new fire starts. The most cornering fire weather day will be on Sunday when a surface front brings gusty westerly winds amid continued very warm and dry conditions. The timing of this front will ultimately determine how long the dry and windy conditions persist. The latest NBM probabilistic guidance continues to highlight large areas of north- central and portions of southwest Montana with over a 70% chance for wind gusts over 30 mph. Although the fuels aren't quite as dry as they were in earlier in the month, elevated fire conditions will be present and the wind may be enough to ignite any lightning caused hold over fires from Friday and Saturday's storms. In addition to the winds, there will be more widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with strong, erratic wind gusts. - RCG && .HYDROLOGY... The combination of increased monsoonal moisture aloft and lower level moisture moving in from the east today will result in a 10% chance for localized heavy thunderstorm rains producing flash flooding over and near burn scars, urban areas, and other normally flood prone locations. While this activity will be monitored for the aforementioned flash flooding, a flash flood watch will issued with this forecast package per the more scattered nature of higher rainfall rates and progressive storm motion. The moisture profile begins thin on Sunday, which will reduce the threat for excessive rainfall through early next week. - RCG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 90 61 89 53 / 30 40 20 0 CTB 85 57 81 50 / 30 20 20 0 HLN 90 57 87 52 / 30 60 30 0 BZN 87 53 86 50 / 50 40 40 10 WYS 81 45 78 41 / 50 40 30 10 DLN 86 52 85 48 / 40 60 10 0 HVR 93 61 93 55 / 20 10 40 20 LWT 88 59 89 52 / 20 30 40 20 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  055 FXUS66 KPDT 221748 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1048 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag Warnings in effect for abundant lightning threat through this evening for portions of the WA Cascade east slopes and the Northern Blues - Breezy to gusty winds developing today will overlap with low relative humidity across lower elevation locations through this evening. Red Flag Warnings and wind advisories are in effect - Mostly dry conditions through the remainder of the week, with a return of breezy to windy conditions Wednesday && .DISCUSSION... Water vapor imagery tonight shows an upper level closed low offshore southern OR, while nighttime satellite and radar imagery show weak, light scattered showers pushing north across southeast WA and northeast OR. Today through Sunday: The upper low offshore southern OR will be the main driver of weather conditions across the PacNW through Sunday night. Today, shower activity with low chances (5-20%) of embedded isolated thunderstorms will be focused along the WA Cascade east slopes, northern Blues, and Wallowa county. The activity will start early this morning along the WA Cascade east slopes, then spread east to the Northern Blues and Wallowa county in the afternoon. Latest CAMs show very weak instability support in the morning (MUCAPE 100-250 J/kg), but by the afternoon show modest instability modest instability (MUCAPE between 250-750 J/kg) developing in the afternoon, with strong low-level lapse rates (9-10 C/km). Thunderstorms through the afternoon will be capable of gusty outflow winds and abundant lightning, which has resulted in the issuance of Red Flag Warnings. The upper low lifting up the coast today will also result in a cross-Cascade pressure gradient to tighten, with winds strengthening as an associated cooler airmass begins to filter into the intermountain PacNW. Breezy winds 15-30mph with gusts 30-45mph will develop across the lower elevations through the afternoon. The strongest winds (sustained winds 25-35mph and gusts 45-50mph) will develop through the Cascade Gaps into western portions of the OR columbia Basin this afternoon, resulting in wind advisories being issued. Confidence is moderate-high (60-85%) that these strong winds will overlap with critically low relative humidities across most of our non- mountain fire weather zones this afternoon. As a result multiple Red Flag Warnings were issued for the wind/low RH threat across the Columbia Basin/Gorge, adjacent foothills/valleys, central OR, and the John Day Basin through this evening. Late Saturday through Sunday morning, the upper low will become an open wave trough as it moves inland across WA and northern OR. A slight chance (15-25%) of light showers will be possible across the WA Cascade crest Sunday morning. The upper trough will exit into Canada around the ID/MT border, leaving behind drier and cooler conditions the remainder of Sunday. Breezy winds (15-25mph with gusts up to 40mph) will redevelop through the Cascade gaps through early Sunday evening, with light winds returning Sunday night. Monday through Friday: Ensemble cluster guidance is in good agreement of upper level ridging building back over the PacNW Monday with dry conditions and a warming trend persisting through Tuesday. By Wednesday, ensemble cluster solutions are in good agreement that an upper trough will lift across the PacNW with a isolated light showers developing along the WA Cascade crest and breezy winds through the Cascade gaps into the Columbia Basin and adjacent valleys/foothills. That said, cluster solutions are in disagreement on passage timing and location of the trough, resulting in low confidence (25-35%) in forecast details. Thursday into Friday, cluster solutions favor a dry southwest flow over the PacNW as broad troughing extends from western Canada into the northeast Pacific. This will keep the region dry overall, with diurnally breezy winds through the Cascade gaps and near normal temperatures. Lawhorn/82 && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... VFR to MVFR conditions through the TAF period with isolated showers and thunderstorms moving through the region. Gusty wind of 20-30 kt favored at all terminals today, with wind weakening after 03z this evening. Gusty and erratic wind could accompany any storm development today. Branham/76 && .FIRE WEATHER... An upper weather system impacting the region today will bring the threat of thunderstorms capable of abundant lightning across WA Cascade crest, northern Blues, and Wallowa county. In most non-mountain zones, breezy winds will overlap with critically low relative humidity this afternoon, resulting in critical fire weather concerns. Multiple Red Flag Warnings are in effect for abundant lightning and for the wind/RH threats. RHs will improve slightly and winds weaken Sunday, though elevated fire weather concerns will remain. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 90 49 82 48 / 20 0 0 0 ALW 93 57 84 55 / 20 0 0 0 PSC 96 58 86 54 / 20 0 0 0 YKM 95 59 86 57 / 30 0 0 0 HRI 92 58 85 53 / 20 0 0 0 ELN 87 54 78 51 / 30 0 0 0 RDM 89 45 84 46 / 10 0 0 0 LGD 95 51 86 50 / 20 10 0 0 GCD 95 53 87 52 / 20 0 0 0 DLS 85 61 82 59 / 10 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for WAZ026-522-523. Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ024-521. Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for WAZ690-691. Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ692. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for WAZ693. Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PDT this evening for WAZ026. Red Flag Warning until noon PDT today for WAZ695. OR...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for ORZ041-044-049-050- 502-503-505>507-509>511. Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ041-044-508- 510. Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for ORZ691-696- 698-700-703. Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ692. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ693. && $$ DISCUSSION...82 AVIATION...76 FIRE WEATHER...82  136 FXUS65 KGJT 221751 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1151 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Monsoonal moisture and a robust disturbance will cause precipitation chances to become more widespread today. - Heavier rainfall today could lead to localized flash flooding over burn scars and susceptible terrain. - Temperatures gradually cool off for the weekend and into next week with a warmup late in the week, remaining above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1043 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ACTIVE THIS WEEKEND: A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms along the leading edge of a shortwave are moving through eastern Utah and progressing into western Colorado this morning, which models are not picking up on or initializing well with. This line was fairly active through the early morning hours in eastern Utah. This is likely due to added upper level support from a low pressure trough moving into the Pacific Northwest, allowing the flow to shift to more southerly and therefore pull up deeper monsoonal moisture last night into this morning and act on the instability already in place. This trough is also nudging the high pressure ridge eastward. Deterministic models are fairly consistent in showing this deeper moisture plume working its way across our CWA today with PWAT anomalies jumping to 160 to 180 percent of normal. Where the models differ is in terms of how robust or widespread the convection will be. The GFS is not as widespread but the hi-res CAMs, particularly the HRRR, seem to indicate a later start to afternoon convection likely due to this morning convection and cloud cover. After this morning wave moves eastward, afternoon convection looks to refire off the higher terrain, with coverage and more robust convection increasing late this afternoon into the evening hours as a robust shortwave moves through the flow providing added forcing and support. CAPE will be sufficient with around 500 to 800 J/kg with mixing ratios in the 5 to 6 g/kg range which is sufficient for heavy rain potential with any storms today. With the better steering flow, there is a good chance storms will impact some lower valleys as well late in the day. The deeper moisture in place today with the added forcing provided by the robust shortwave will increase flash flooding and debris flow concerns, especially over burn scars and susceptible terrain. Be weather aware and make sure you have a way to receive watches and warnings. Cannot rule out some convection continuing through the overnight hours but most activity should wind down by midnight or shortly after. On Sunday, the Pacific Northwest trough will have lifted out into Canada with the robust shortwave already out into the Plains, leaving us in a westerly flow as the shortwave and trough allow the high to lay over. We will still see residual moisture in place with another day of afternoon showers and storms, but without the added forcing, storms should be mostly confined to the high terrain. Flash flooding is still a concern over burn scars but looks to remain more localized on Sunday as there isn't a real focus for where the better chances reside. Highs this weekend will be cooler than previous few days with temperatures around 5 degrees cooler but still remaining 5 degrees above normal. NEXT WEEK: The high pressure and above normal moisture will remain in place through this coming week with the high slowly meandering back to the west across the Desert Southwest (south of the Four Corners) by mid to late week. Some shortwaves will move through the flow across the north up and around the high pressure through the Northern Rockies, providing a little lift for some afternoon convection each day but the focus seems to be over the highterrain with quite a bit of uncertainty as to the quality of this moisture with the heavy rain potential looking more localized as this moisture gets recycled under the high. PWAT anomalies slowly trend downward as this high shifts westward and drier air is pulled into the Great Basin. Daytime highs hold steady as we move into the coming week with highs around 5 degrees above normal and gradually increase towards around 5 to 10 degrees above normal by late week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1150 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing around the region. Coverage of convection will increase through the afternoon with showers and storms most likely to occur between 18Z to 02Z. Primary concerns with convection are lightning and brief periods of heavy rain producing MVFR conditions. Strong outflow winds 35 mph or greater could be possible near some showers and thunderstorms. Some of this activity may linger into the overnight hours, mostly over the high terrain. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MDA AVIATION...TGJT  187 FXUS61 KRNK 221752 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 152 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated PoPs for early showers developing along the Blue Ridge this afternoon. A low stratus deck is still hanging around across portions of the Piedmont this afternoon, but should slowly dissipate to more scattered coverage through the rest of the afternoon and evening, with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing late this evening. Aviation Forecast Updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cold front pushing into the region late this evening will bring another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms. 2) Drier cooler weather returns tomorrow and continues into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front pushing into the region late today will bring another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms. A cold front has started to develop showers and thunderstorms across the Ohio valley this afternoon. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to translate east through the remainder of the afternoon and evening today, and arrive across portions of SE West Virginia after sunset. These storms are expected to dissipate as they track through the higher terrain locations of eastern West Virginia; however, they may still produce strong to severe winds before hitting the VA/WV state line where most CAM guidance has these storms dissipating. During the mid afternoon hours, CAM guidance has showers and thunderstorms developing along the Blue Ridge and pushing east into the Piedmonts of VA/NC. Currently a low stratus deck has lingered across these areas all morning and this afternoon; however, it is slowly starting to dissipate. Again, these storms will likely remain scattered in nature for the area as they translate east through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. The largest threat from these storms, and the storms aforementioned above for the late evening across SE West Virginia, will be the potential for damaging wind gusts that may blow down trees and power poles leading to localized power outages. This threat primarily stems from DCAPE values in the 800-1000 J/Kg range across the area thanks to dry air aloft and at the surface. SBCAPE values look to remain modest at around 1000-2000 J/Kg across the region, and deep layer shear will be sufficient enough in the 25-30 knot range to produce multicellular clusters from storms that do develop today. Behind the frontal passage during the overnight hours, winds will transition to northwesterly as surface high pressure builds into the region. This will bring gusty winds during the overnight hours to the area, which will linger through the mid morning hours on Sunday. KEY MESSAGE 2: Drier cooler weather returns Sunday and continues into early next week. Behind the frontal passage on Sunday, surface high pressure ejecting southeastward out of Canada will inject cooler and drier air into the region on Sunday. This will lead to initially cloudy conditions across upslope regions in the mountains, but should quickly clear out by the mid morning and early afternoon hours on Sunday. Mostly clear skies with no rain chances are expected through Tuesday, with isolated to scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms returning to the area by the middle of next week. More moisture looks to return to the area by Thursday as the high pressure over the region finally breaks down allowing the Bermuda high to take over, which will advect more moisture to the area. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MVFR CIGs are still hanging around Piedmont terminals such as LYH and DAN this afternoon; however, these restrictions should lift to VFR levels over the next 1-2 hours. Through the afternoon, scattered showersand thunderstorms look to expand in coverage along and east of the Blue Ridge through the late afternoon and early evening. These storms will push east, and may impact LYH and DAN, with brief periods of restrictions; however, coverage looks to remain limited enough at these locations that thunder was left out of the TAFs for now. A second round of showers and thunderstorms associated with the cold front looks to move into SE West Virginia late, and may impact BLF and LWB before dissipating by the 03-06 UTC timeframe. Shortly after the front passes, winds will transition from southerly/southwesterly across the region to northwesterly, with sustained winds of 5-10 knots and gusts of 15-20 knots during the overnight and into the early morning hours. With northwest winds, some MVFR to IFR CIGs look to develop at BLF, LWB, and BCB. These restrictions look to lift by the mid morning hours, with VFR conditions returning to all terminals. OUTLOOK... Drier airmass situated over the Great Lakes will sink into the area Sunday into early next week. Should be mainly VFR aside from any late night fog, mainly LWB/BCB. Next system appears to bring some chances for storms Wednesday with possibility for sub-VFR cigs/vsbys. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EB AVIATION...EB  204 FXUS65 KBOU 221753 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1153 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat eases, along with an increase in shower and storm coverage this weekend. - Highest coverage of showers and storms expected today, along with a few severe storms on the plains this afternoon and evening and then again Sunday. - Gradual drying next week, but continued storm chances through at least Wednesday or Thursday. Slight cooling but temperatures still above normal. && .DISCUSSION /Through Friday/... Issued at 249 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A slight cooldown is expected today after Friday's record breaking heat. While temperatures are still expected to remain above normal, we should only see highs range from the mid 80s to the low 90s across the lower elevations before afternoon showers and storms bring some heat relief. Not much has changed in today's forecast, as we still expect today to bring this week's best chance for wetting rains as PWATs are expected to be around 150% of normal. Instability will increase today, with high-res models showing a wide range of values (600-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE). Despite these models having inconsistent MLCAPE values, they are in fairly good agreement that the best environment for severe storms will be along a line from the Cheyenne Ridge southeastward across the plains, just east of DIA. As storms are expected to remain high-based as they move off the higher terrain, they will be capable of producing gusty outflows, with a few strong to severe gusts expected throughout the afternoon and evening as storms move across the plains. With the above normal PWATs in place, we could have a few localized heavier rains too. Additionally, mid-level lapse rates will be sufficiently steep (8-9 C/km) to support an isolated hail threat. 0-6 km shear will be marginal (~30 kts), but enough to support potential for storm organization. The upper-level ridge is still expected to flatten out on Sunday and Monday as a shortwave tracks east out of the Pacific Northwest. While moisture isn't expected to be as robust as today, PWATs are still expected to be around 120% to 130% of normal each afternoon that will support afternoon showers and storms, with a few strong to severe storms possible each afternoon, and above normal temperatures persisting before a chance at sub 90 degree highs returns Tuesday and Wednesday. The latest ensembles keep above normal PWATs in place through the week though a gradual drying is still expected. This will keep at least isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms possible through the week. The upper-level ridge is then expected to rebuild, bringing temperatures right back into the 90s across the plains to end the work week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday/... Issued at 1131 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A boundary currently to the east of DEN and APA will continue to move westward towards each of those terminals. It now appears likely the boundary will get close enough to both of those terminals to bring stronger easterly winds than previously forecast. East winds could gust to around 20 knots. There is a slight chance (20%), however, that a DCVZ develops just to the east of DEN and APA that keeps winds more out of the northeast with lighter speeds. Storms are expected to develop this afternoon with the earliest possible storms at 19Z at BJC and 20Z at DEN and APA. The most likely time for storms to impact all terminals is between 22-02Z. Strong outflow winds are likely with gusts 40-45 knots. It is even possible (20%) that severe gusts above 50 knots occur at DEN or APA. Besides winds, there is a chance (40%) that visibility will be reduced to 2-4 miles and ceilings drop to 4,000-6,000 feet if a storm were to move directly overhead. In the evening, southerly winds are likely to develop at DEN and APA with a small chance rain showers move overhead with little impact. Drainage winds are expected for much of the night at all terminals. Normal wind patterns are expected throughout the day on Sunday. There will be less low level moisture in place and coverage of showers and storms will be lower as a result. However, an outflow boundary or two is still expected to impact the terminals late tomorrow afternoon and early evening. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...9 AVIATION...Danielson  232 FXUS61 KALY 221754 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 154 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SPC expanded the Marginal Risk for isolated severe weather (level 1 of 5) on Sunday to now cover most of eastern NY and western New England. WPC removed the marginal risk for excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4) for Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) After a dry Saturday, areas of showers and thunderstorms arrive late tonight into Sunday A.M with showers and storms returning Sunday P.M. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated severe thunderstorms across much of eastern NY and western New England Sunday P.M. 2) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue Monday and Tuesday, especially near and north of I-90, with temperatures remaining slightly cooler than normal. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Broad troughing continues developing over the Upper Great Plains into the Great Lakes today while the Northeast remains on the west side of large scale ridging over the western Atlantic. While height falls creep into western NY today, eastern NY and western New England remains under the influence of weak subsidence, keeping us dry. Tonight, our upstream trough over the Great Lakes amplifies and digs into the Ohio Valley as two shortwaves phase together with the parent cyclone taking on a negative tilt. This results in strengthening upper level diffluence over the mid-Atlantic as a warm front lifts northward with a weak sfc low developing along the boundary. Meanwhile, strengthening southwest flow aloft will also allow moisture to advect into the Northeast with PWATs rising over 1.50". Chances for showers and even a slight chance for thunderstorms increases from southwest to northeast 06 - 12 UTC Sunday as the front approaches. Guidance continues to hint that the weak sfc low will aid in a more organized area of rain/embedded storms. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the latest probabilistic guidance from the HREF continues to show potential for moderate to heavy rain late tonight into Sunday morning with a 50 - 75% chance for over 0.50" of rain 09 to 15 UTC Sun and even a 25-50% chance for over 1" of rain. However, our recent dry stretch will likely limit flooding and WPC removed the marginal risk for excessive rainfall. After this initial A.M period of rain/storms, we should have a brief break before an occluded front and stronger height falls from the closed parent low over the eastern Great lakes arrive. There remain uncertainties regarding how much instability can develop. While there will be plenty of low- level moisture, morning clouds may struggle to break for sun during the small window before the occluded front arrives Sun P.M. Even still, mid-level dry air and cooler temperatures aloft wrap eastward as the parent cyclone matures, helping to steepen lapse rates with forecast soundings showing "tall- skinny" CAPE developing. Given the high humidity, even limited insolation will contribute to sufficient instability and help generate low- topped convection. While 0-6km shear is rather impressive ranging 40-50kts, 0-3km shear only ranges 20-30kts. Should weak instability keep convection low-topped, storms will not tap into the stronger deep layer shear, decreasing the severe weather potential. SPC expanded the marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated severe weather to now cover much of eastern NY and western New England given persistent forcing ahead of the parent cyclone; however, weak instability/shear are listed as reasons will severe weather may be limited. Main concerns are damaging winds from any severe weather with a linear storm mode favored as shear vectors remain parallel to the boundary. KEY MESSAGE 2... The vertically stack closed low and associated cold pool in the eastern Great Lakes slowly advances eastward Monday into Tuesday supporting slightly cooler than normal temperatures and continued moist cyclonic flow aloft. Coverage of showers and even low- topped convection increases Monday afternoon, especially near/north of I-90, as additional shortwaves rotate around the base of the closed low. Given the cool pool aloft, it likely will not take much upscale growth before lightning occurs with even small hail possible from any taller storms. As winds aloft becoming westerly, a weak lake effect signal looks to develop downstream of Lake Ontario, supporting steadier periods of rain directed into the western Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley Monday P.M into Monday night. Unsettled conditions continue into Tuesday with additional diurnally driven showers again mainly near/north of I-90 but shower coverage should be lower than Monday as the parent cyclone slowly exits into New England. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 18z/Sunday...VFR conditions remain through the afternoon across the terminals before ceilings begin to lower to MVFR this evening due to an approaching frontal system. MVFR ceilings will continue overnight at all of the terminals along with the possibility of fog/mist developing at KGFL and KPSF near sunrise. CAMs also suggest rain showers arriving between about 08z to 13z from the west lowering ceilings and visibilities to MVFR. After sunrise, model soundings continue to show low stratus persisting into the late morning maintaining MVFR ceilings and even lowering to IFR/LIFR for periods through the end of the TAF period. Additional chances of steadier rain showers and isolated thunderstorms through the end of the TAF period could lower flight conditions to MVFR/IFR, but confidence will increase with following TAF cycles. Winds through the TAF period will prevail out of the southeast with speeds this afternoon 5-10 kt becoming 5 kt or less overnight. Winds tomorrow generally range 5-10 kt, however stronger gusts around 25 kt could accompany any thunderstorms that develops. Outlook... Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...FG. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...24/31 AVIATION...53  295 FXUS62 KMFL 221755 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 155 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 154 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon and into the evening. A couple of stronger storms are possible that could produce marginally severe winds. - A slightly earlier convective start and slightly lower dew points is expected to allow most areas to avoid heat advisory criteria. Peak heat index values could still reach 105-110F for short durations. && .UPDATE... Issued at 835 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Surface to mid-level high pressure ridge is located over the far southern peninsula this morning, providing a light S-SW wind flow across the region. Current forecast is on track with regards to convection initiation, with seabreezes expected to push onshore by Noon. Initial development will likely occur around Lake Okeechobee and interior Palm Beach County where GOES-derived precipitable water (PWAT) values are running close to 2 inches, then spread southward along the seabreeze boundaries through 2 PM. The east coast seabreeze will be pinned closer to the metro/coastal areas especially in Palm Beach County but even down to the far western suburbs of Broward/Miami-Dade County, whereas the Gulf seabreeze will penetrate slightly farther inland where convection will fire between Lake Okeechobee and the Gulf coast. As the afternoon progresses, the showers and thunderstorms will tend to shift east concentrate over the Everglades and far western suburbs of SE Florida during the late afternoon and early evening. The bulk of the precipitation should remain over the Everglades, but the light wind flow means that thunderstorm outflows should be able to push towards the metro and Atlantic coastal areas and help to trigger additional showers/thunderstorms near or over the metro area. As indicated in the previous discussion, thermodynamic profiles will support a few strong wind gusts, along with the usual isolated pockets of 2-4"+ rainfall amounts. Heat index values will once again be near advisory levels this afternoon, but earlier onset of convection may preclude the need for advisories as indicated in the previous discussion. We will continue to monitor this closely throughout the morning in the event that trends show heat index values increasing faster than expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 There has not been much change in the pattern evolution for this weekend. From a synoptic standpoint, the ridge in the Southwestern US continues to strengthen and allows for increased jet dynamics to strengthen the trough over the Eastern Seaboard. The base of the trough is still not expected to make it into South Florida and the overall flow pattern will remain largely on the weaker side, but this enhanced troughing pattern is expected to keep a prevailing southerly/south-southwesterly flow pattern in place through the weekend. Therefore, with deep moisture advection continuing and elevated PWATs of 1.7-2.0" or even more in some areas, diurnal heating and sea breeze circulations each day will have the necessary ingredients to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. With the primary south to south-southwest flow, this will favor interior and Southeast Florida for highest rain chances this weekend as showers and storms are expected to be the most widespread in these areas. The most robust activity will occur in the later afternoon during peak diurnal heating and once the sea breeze boundaries advance inland. Model soundings do highlight adequate SBCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg as well as inverted-V signatures and steep low level lapse rates leading to DCAPE values of 1000-1200 J/kg, sothere will be an outside chance for an isolated severe storm or two via gusty winds again both days this weekend. Otherwise, the primary hazards will continue to be heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flooding in poor drainage areas, and sub-severe strong wind gusts. High temperatures this weekend will remain in the low to mid 90s. The deeper moisture will also keep dew points in the mid to upper 70s for most areas each day, thus maximum heat index values are anticipated to remain elevated up to the 105-110F range. With the expectation of some increased cloud cover and an earlier initiation time for convection to develop, have opted to not issue a Heat Advisory today, which will end the streak of 13 consecutive days with at least a portion of the region being under a Heat Advisory unless a short-fused one is issued later today. HREF probabilities highlight a 10-20% or less chance for heat indices to reach 105F or higher at any point of day, which is even lower for occurring over two or more consecutive hours. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 As the trough draped across the Eastern Seaboard starts to erode early next week, the local wind regime will start to shift back to what we typically see in the summer time here in South Florida with low level flow being dominated by the Atlantic sea breeze. This will cause diurnal convection to start focusing back over both the interior and Southwest Florida rather than Southeast Florida like has been observed recently. Starting Monday, the highest rain chances (60-80%) will begin to focus across Southwest Florida and this will last through the end of the long term period. Other than the rain potential, there is also potential for another Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to impact the area early next week, but guidance highlights this SAL breaking up upon it's arrival and thus it's influence on a return to hot conditions should be less than the previous round. The SAL could lower rain chances for a day or two, but with this being a thinner layer that clears out much faster, not expecting there to be any days with limited to no rainfall across the region. High temperatures are projected to remain in the low to mid 90s each day. Overnight lows range from the low 70s across the interior and lake regions to the upper 70s and low 80s along the coastal metros. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 154 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Increasing SHRA/TSRA across the eastern half of the peninsula this afternoon/evening with the potential of bouts of sub MVFR cigs/vis at any impacted terminal. Onshore winds along both coasts will remain fairly light with the potential of erratic and gusty winds at any terminal impacted by SHRA/TSRA. Light and variable winds will be possible once again tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Gentle west-southwest winds are expected across the Gulf waters this weekend with southeasterly winds across the Atlantic. Seas will remain at 1-2 feet or less each day across all local waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late each day and in the late night hours over the waters, which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 80 93 79 93 / 20 60 10 20 West Kendall 77 92 76 92 / 20 60 20 20 Opa-Locka 79 93 79 93 / 20 60 10 20 Homestead 78 92 78 92 / 20 50 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 80 92 80 92 / 20 50 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 80 93 79 93 / 20 50 10 20 Pembroke Pines 80 93 80 93 / 20 60 10 20 West Palm Beach 78 94 78 93 / 10 50 10 20 Boca Raton 79 92 79 91 / 10 50 10 20 Naples 79 91 78 92 / 10 20 10 20 &&.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...Hadi  389 FXUS62 KMLB 221757 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 157 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Daily afternoon shower and storm development is forecast across east central Florida through this weekend and into next week. - Storm hazards today will include frequent lightning strikes, strong to marginally severe wind gusts, small hail, and heavy downpours leading to rainfall accumulations of 1-3". - Heat remains a concern across east central Florida, though peak heat indices are anticipated to stay below advisory criteria. Regardless, residents and visitors to the area are encouraged to practice heat safety! && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Today-Tonight...Deep mid-level troughing remains in place across the eastern US today, with a shortwave positioned across north Florida being absorbed into the broader pattern. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis will remain south of east central Florida as a quasi-stationary boundary draped across the southeastern US drifts farther south towards Florida. Locally, light southwest winds are forecast through this morning, with winds becoming more southeasterly along the coast this afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops and attempts to push inland. The sea breeze will struggle due to prevailing southwest winds aloft. A plume of moisture will generally remain in place locally, but Saharan dust will work through the mid and upper levels, with PWATs trending slightly lower in the 1.8-2.0" range. There is still a 30-40% chance of showers and storms today despite the drier air being a limiting factor to development, with energy aloft and the sea breezes potentially providing enough support. Coverage is favored to increase after 2 PM, with activity pushing towards the coast thanks to the aforementioned southwest steering flow. Adequate daytime heating will increase instability, drier air aloft will support stronger downdrafts (DCAPE 1000 J/kg+), and cooler 500mb temperatures (-7C) will increase the potential for hail. This means the main hazards for today with convective development will include frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 55 mph (with a low chance for severe wind gusts), small hail, and heavy downpours with rainfall accumulations of 1-3" possible. The best chances for showers and storms remain focused along the coast. Activity will push offshore and across the local Atlantic waters late this evening into the overnight hours, with mostly dry conditions across the peninsula. Another day of high temperatures climbing into the low to mid 90s across east central Florida, with peak heat indices remaining just below advisory criteria in the 102F to 107F range. Adequate hydration and breaks in the shade or an air conditioned building will be important for those spending extended periods of time outdoors and as always, children and pets should never be left alone in vehicles for any period of time. Temperatures overnight will remain near-normal in the mid-70s. Sunday-Monday...The mid-level trough begins to weaken towards the end of this weekend and into Monday, with the potential for a couple additional shortwaves moving towards the Florida peninsula. The pattern will remain fairly consistent into Sunday, with the surface boundary remaining draped across the southeastern US. However, the weakening of the trough will result in the surface boundary shifting northward by Monday, with the Atlantic ridge axis anticipated to also begin lifting north back towards the Florida peninsula. Southwesterly winds persist on Sunday, shifting more southerly on Monday. The typical diurnal summertime pattern persists with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible across east central Florida as the sea breezes develop, though drier air aloft may act to limit convective development, especially on Monday. Lightning strikes, wind gusts to 55 mph, small hail, and heavy downpours will be possible on Sunday, with lower confidence in the hail potential on Monday as mid-level temperatures trend a degree or two warmer. Activity timing will favor the afternoon and early evening hours each day, with showers and storms diminishing into the overnight hours. Isolated development across the local Atlantic waters will be possible overnight, with dry conditions across the peninsula. Temperatures will remain near-normal through the remainder of this weekend and into Monday, with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s. Peak heat indices will continue to range from 102F to 107F. Tuesday-Friday...Weak mid-level troughing will remain in place across the eastern US into next week, with a series of shortwaves traveling around the main trough and digging southward into Florida. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis continues to establish itself across the Florida peninsula, with the return of predominantly southerly flow advecting moisture towards the peninsula. The energy aloft from the passing shortwaves coupled with the daily afternoon sea breeze development will result in a return of near-normal shower and storm chances across east central Florida, with PoPs ranging between 30-40% on Tuesday and 40-70% Wednesday onward. All of the typical summertime storm hazards will be possible, including lightning strikes, gusty winds, and heavy downpours. Following the usual diurnal trend, activity is anticipated to diminish into the late evening and overnight hours each day, with mostly dry conditions overnight. Outside of shower and storm chances, temperatures across east central Florida will remain right around normal values through next week. Humidity will continue to push peak heat indices well above 100F, though most guidance suggest values remaining below advisory criteria. This will continue to be closely monitored. Regardless, residents and visitors should plan to practice heat safety to avoid developing heat-related illness. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast across the local waters. The Atlantic ridge axis will remain south of the local waters this weekend, keeping winds generally out of the southwest. By Monday, the axis lifts northward and will remain draped across the waters, resulting in winds shifting to out of the south. The development of the east coast sea breeze each afternoon will cause winds to become more southeasterly, increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are anticipated to remain between 1 to 3 feet, highest across the offshore waters. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible across the local waters through the afternoon and evening hours as activity from the peninsula pushes offshore. Storms will be capable of producing frequent cloud-to-water lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 30 knots, small hail, heavy downpours, and locally higher seas. While conditions are forecast to trend drier through the overnight hours, some isolated development across the Gulf Stream waters cannot be fully ruled out each night. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 147 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Made a few timing adjustments to VCTS and PROB30s, but otherwise no significant changes from the previous TAF package for this afternoon/evening. Offshore (WSW-SW) flow 5-10 kts has kept the ECSB pinned, and is only now begging an inland push, shifting winds onshore (S-SE) around 10 kts behind the boundary. Confidence is TS evolution has decreased a bit. HREF guidance continues to call for mainly ISO TS, but recent HRRR runs have been more aggressive, especially along the sea breeze collision near/between the coastal/inland terminals after 21Z, and neither models have initialized well. Quick AMDs to upgrade PROB30s to TEMPOs may be needed. +TSRA capable of locally high gusts +35 kts and small hail are possible. TS/SH dissipate or move offshore after 01Z, with some activity lingering to 03Z. Mostly quiet conditions overnight, but an ISO SH or even TS can't be ruled out. High uncertainty in Sunday's TS/SH chance, which guidance varying between ISO to SCT coverage, and possibly an early start. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 93 75 93 / 40 40 10 20 MCO 76 95 76 96 / 30 30 20 20 MLB 77 94 77 93 / 40 20 20 20 VRB 75 93 75 92 / 30 20 10 20 LEE 75 92 75 94 / 10 30 10 20 SFB 76 94 75 95 / 40 40 20 30 ORL 77 94 76 95 / 30 30 20 30 FPR 76 93 75 92 / 30 20 10 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tollefsen AVIATION...Haley  355 FXUS66 KLOX 221756 AAA AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1056 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 updated aviation discussion .SYNOPSIS...22/930 AM. Minimal changes expected through the weekend with above normal temperatures. Patchy night and morning low clouds and fog will be confined to coastal areas, mostly north of Point Conception. Additional warming is possible next week as high pressure builds in from the southeast. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...22/941 AM. ***UPDATE*** Expecting a very similar day today compared to yesterday with highs 4-8 degrees above normal but not quite to heat advisory levels. Temperatures this morning are actually running 1-3 degrees cooler than yesterday at the same time, but by the end of the day expecting highs to be within a couple degrees of yesterday. Models continue to show little change in this pattern through at least Monday. After that most of the ensembles show increasing heat along with weakening onshore flow which cloud push some areas into heat advisories and possibly warnings in some areas. ***From Previous Discussion*** Few changes are expected through the weekend, with warm conditions persisting. The combination of hot daytime temperatures, warm overnight lows and some monsoonal moisture at mid to upper levels will continue to feel uncomfortably warm. Breezy winds are expected at times, with northerly Sundowner winds along the Santa Barbara Southwest coast and foothills, and gusty onshore winds over interior sections. Not much change in the upper level pattern for Today, with 500 mb heights peaking around 593 to 594 dam. However, will see these heights fall a few dam for Sunday and Monday. Expecting fairly similar highs as yesterday for today, with limited marine layer clouds and similar strength in onshore flow. While the hottest areas are not quite widespread enough to warrant a Heat Advisory, some interior valley and mountain locations (Woodland Hills, for example) will reach around 10 degrees above normal. Caution is still advised for those working or recreating outdoors during the daytime. Will likely see the typical afternoon to evening breezy onshore (Southwest) winds with gusts around 20 to 30 mph over the far interior today, including Antelope Valley. These winds should trend weaker over the next few days. Northerly winds will again develop during the evening hours for the Santa Barbara southwest coast with sub-advisory level winds expected through Sunday evening, possibly reaching advisory levels Monday evening. As for the monsoonal moisture flowing over the area from the southeast, current high resolution guidance does not suggest any significant shower activity over the area for the next dew days. However, cannot rule out a stray shower or two in favorable interior locations. .LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...22/533 AM. High pressure is expected to build back into California, with warming Tuesday while at the same time pressure gradients from the north and east weaken. With high temperatures already on the verge of advisories and warnings through early next week, the next burst of heat Tuesday and beyond has at least a 40-60% chance pushing that over the edge to at least heat advisory levels and possibly into warning level, particularly inland areas. Ensemble guidance is trending towards at least 3 days of hot conditions, with some potential for additional mid-level moisture Tuesday. How widespread the heat hazards are will be largely be determined by the pressure gradients. If the gradients trend towards the 75th percentile or higher, which roughly would be around -3mb LAX- DAG and -4mb LAX- BFL, temperatures would on the higher side with numerous excessive heat warnings likely. If gradients have less of an offshore componentper the latest GFS then temperatures will still be hot but at least a few degrees cooler. The latter scenario being the most likely outcome. Still not seeing any big subtropical push next week, though there is minor peak in PW's on Tuesday and early Wednesday at around 1.2". However, warm ocean temperatures will likely continue to limit cooling overnight. && .AVIATION...22/1754Z. At 1640Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 600 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 3100 feet with a temperature of 28 C. High confidence in most of the 18Z TAFs with VFR conds for nearly all airfields. Moderate to high confidence for the TAF at KSBP as there is a 20%-30% chance of IFR cigs/vsbys about 11Z-16Z Sun morning. Otherwise VFR conds are expected. Low to moderate confidence for the TAF at KSMX due to uncertainties with timing of low clouds and IFR/LIFR conds about 06Z-18Z Sun. Timing could be off +/- an hour or two. KLAX...Generally hi confidence in the 18Z TAF with VFR conds expected. However, there is a 20% chance of IFR conds between 13Z-16Z Sun morning. If CIGs occur, the timing could be off by 2 hours. No significant east wind component is expected. KBUR...High confidence in the 18Z TAF with VFR conds expected. && .MARINE...22/826 AM. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions likely continuing over the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island through tonight, lowering to moderate risk for Sunday and Monday. There is a moderate risk for the nearshore Central Coast waters each afternoon and evening through tonight, lowering for Sunday and Monday. Localized SCA level wind gusts are also possible for portions of the Santa Barbara Channel this afternoon and evening, especially near the Channel Islands. Elsewhere, the risk for SCA is low, with seasonal winds likely. Chances for SCA conditions will likely increase again including some nearshore waters by Wednesday. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 AM PDT Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT Sunday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Monday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW/Phillips/Ciliberti AVIATION...Sirard MARINE...LP/RK/Sirard SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox