496 FXUS61 KCLE 221800 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... There is now a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms from our central and eastern Ohio Counties points east into Northwest PA this afternoon and evening. Increased rain chances outside of the "snowbelt" Sunday afternoon/evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected to develop and then move east-southeast across the area this afternoon and evening. Some storms may turn severe with pockets of damaging winds the main risk. Isolated hail and locally heavy rain are secondary threats. 2) Below average temperatures arrive to end the weekend and start the upcoming week. Periodic lake-enhanced rain showers will primarily impact portions of Northeast OH and Northwest PA late tonight through at least Monday night, with a few showers or storms elsewhere Sunday afternoon/evening. 3) Outside of lake-enhanced showers, a period of dry and tranquil weather is expected the first half of the week. The next potential weather maker brings chances for showers and a few storms late Wednesday and primarily Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The combination of a low-level trough axis and modest warm air/ moisture advection has been fueling some thunderstorms early this morning, primarily over Lake Erie but extending southwest into parts of North Central OH as of 3 AM. While this activity is generally favored to lift east-northeast and diminish this morning, it may still be on the scope as the rest of the world awakens, particularly over and close to Lake Erie. While it may not be an entirely dry morning given this activity, greater shower and storm potential, including a risk for some strong to severe storms, awaits until the afternoon and evening hours. Aloft, a shortwave will dig into the central Great Lakes today into tonight while taking on a neutral to slightly negative tilt. This will encourage a weak surface low to slowly deepen while drifting out of northern Michigan and into southern Ontario late today and tonight. A pre-frontal trough is still expected to cross the area this afternoon and early evening from west to east, with a strong cold front arriving in Northwest OH late this afternoon and surging southeast across the area through this evening. Large scale forcing for ascent will maximize late this afternoon and evening as a vort max rounds the base of the deepening shortwave and rotates into the northern OH/Lake Erie vicinity, though more modest forcing is evident even earlier in the day. Showers/storms are expected to begin developing during the midday or early afternoon timeframe, with activity peaking in coverage, intensity, and organization during the late afternoon and early evening. Showers/storms are expected to exit southeast this evening with the cold front, with activity quickly transitioning to lake-enhanced showers later tonight. Activity will likely blossom along both the pre-frontal trough and a lake breeze near the northeastern shoreline near and east of the I-77 corridor this afternoon, and across Northwest OH along the cold front itself. Given the increasing forcing into the late afternoon/evening and multiple triggers for convection, it's likely that eastern portions of our area see the most widespread convection and greatest overall rain amounts, with some areas likely seeing multiple rounds in quick succession. With that said, nearly all CAMs develop fairly numerous storms along the cold front as it pushes across our western counties, so odds are that a large majority of the area will see a shower or storm this afternoon/evening on the balance. There is some potential for both severe weather and locally heavy rain with storms thisafternoon/evening, though the overall setup will not favor higher end convective hazards. Clouds and perhaps some ongoing shower/thunder activity will slow heating today, though weak to moderate, uncapped instability (1000-2000 J/KG of MLCAPE) is expected to develop through the afternoon as low-level lapse rates steepen to around 8C/km. Some pockets of dry air aloft will contribute to modest DCAPE values in the 500-800 J/KG range. These marginal thermodynamics, coupled with increasing forcing and modest deep- layer shear values of 20-30kt, can support loosely organized convection. The primary severe threat today will be locally damaging winds, most likely with any small lines or clusters that evolve but also possible with any more intense cells. Isolated large hail is also possible, mainly with any updrafts that exhibit transient rotation which is most likely within storms along/east of the pre-frontal trough where surface flow will be more backed. While the overall lower-end environment and potential for storms to quickly get "messy" and work over the atmosphere puts a lid on severe potential today, most CAMs have quite a bit of convection across our area with some organization depicted, giving the SPC confidence to introduce a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather for much of the area east of the I-75 corridor (and a Marginal/level 1 of 5 for I-75). In terms of heavy rain potential, storm motions from the west- southwest will be fairly parallel to the incoming cold front, so the potential for multiple rounds and/or transient training does exist. Precipitable water values and warm cloud depths are not especially concerning for efficient rain-rates, though we will need to monitor portions of Northeast OH/Northwest PA for repeated storms or training convection that can still drop localized 2-3" rain amounts. Otherwise, area-average QPF will generally be in the 0.25-1.00" range through this evening, least across Northwest OH and greatest across Northeast OH/Northwest PA. The WPC has introduced a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall/localized flash flooding across Northeast OH and Northwest PA in their latest excessive rainfall outlook. KEY MESSAGE 2... After pulling a cold front across the area this evening, the surface low and upper trough across the central/eastern Great Lakes will continue to deepen through Sunday while beginning to stack, cut-off, and slow. The system will then start to slowly fill/weaken Sunday night and Monday while drifting to the east- northeast across southeastern Canada and New England. The seasonably chilly airmass pulled in behind the cold front and lingering moist cyclonic flow behind the stacking surface low/ upper trough will give us an early taste of fall to end the weekend and start the week...including some lake-enhanced rain. 850mb temperatures will bottom out at 6-9C Sunday night into early Monday, with 700mb temperatures dipping a bit below 0C as 500mb temperatures fall to around -20C. Most of the area will dry out late this evening into the overnight as the cold front exits, though as cooler west- northwest flow aligns over the ~25C lake waters some lake- enhanced showers will begin developing and moving into Northeast OH/Northwest PA. A vort max and low-level trough axis will cross the region very late tonight into early Sunday, likely causing activity to peak in organization. While some lake effect showers will continue on Sunday across Northeast OH/Northwest PA, the activity will likely lose organization and intensity for several hours after the morning trough passage. Another potent vort max and low-level trough axis will drop in from the northwest late Sunday afternoon and evening, bringing another uptick in lake-enhanced shower activity over and east-southeast of Lake Erie from as far westas the Islands and Sandusky points east. There will also be an uptick in showers across the rest of the area with the trough passage late Sunday afternoon and evening. Chilly, cyclonic west-northwest flow continues through at least Monday night or early Tuesday and some lake effect/ enhanced shower activity remains likely. However, there will likely be a trend for activity to become less intense/organized later Sunday night and beyond as high pressure builds in. A possible exception is Monday night when another vort max and trough passage is hinted at. That could cause one last uptick in the lake-driven showers, especially farther east. In terms of any hazards, instability will be deep enough over the lake for some thunder/lightning potential with the lake- enhanced activity...especially through the first half of Sunday night. The overall set-up with a somewhat shorter west-northwest fetch and some wind shifts through the event isn't overly favorable for intense, banded rainfall with a flash flood risk across the snowbelt. However, rain amounts will gradually add up (especially through Sunday evening) where lake-enhanced showers are most frequent and the potential for localized flooding will need to be kept in mind, especially if parts of Northeast OH or Northwest PA see locally heavy rain today. The heaviest rain amounts will likely occur slightly inland from the lakeshore form the Cleveland area points east-northeast. Otherwise, with cold air aloft and stronger winds towards and above 500mb, any thunderstorms with the trough passage late Sunday afternoon/ evening may produce gusty winds and/or small hail...especially over and downwind of Lake Erie. KEY MESSAGE 3... Locations outside of any lake enhanced rain showers are expected to dry out Sunday night and remain dry into the first half of the week. Lake enhanced rain will gradually dwindle starting late Sunday night and eventually end by Tuesday as discussed above. Overall, this will lend to a tranquil first half of the week across much of the area. Temperatures will slowly rebound towards normal starting on Tuesday. Another trough is expected to dig into the Great Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday. This will likely be accompanied by another surface low and its associated fronts. Chances for showers and some storms may arrive as early as Wednesday afternoon/evening, but are most favored on Thursday with this system. && .AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... Showers and thunderstorms are expected areawide today, especially along and east of I-77 where multiple rounds of storms are likely this afternoon and evening. IFR and lower conditions with reduced visibilities are likely with any thunderstorm today. SPC has a slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for this afternoon and evening. Strong to damaging wind gusts up to 50 knots are possible within the strongest storms, along with hail up to 1 inch in diameter. These hazards are likely to be isolated in nature and there is a low probability of impact to any terminal directly. Scattered rain showers and MVFR ceilings may linger across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania tonight, becoming more reserved to Northwest Pennsylvania tomorrow. Outlook...Non-VFR conditions will be likely Sunday through Monday morning with lake enhanced rain showers and isolated thunder possible for areas downwind of Lake Erie in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. && .MARINE... Marine weather conditions on Lake Erie will become rough and not ideal later tonight and continuing through late Monday. There is a round of strong storms over the central basin of Lake Erie this morning that will track eastward through Sunrise. Gusty winds up to 35 knots and isolated waterspouts could be possible with these early morning storms over the lake. A cold front will approach Lake Erie from the west late this afternoon and move across later this evening. Winds ahead of the cold front will be from the south to southwest 10 to 15 knots today and waves of 1 to 2 feet. Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible again this afternoon and evening with the frontal passage. Winds will shift around from the west to northwest tonight 15 to 20 knots and continue Sunday through Monday. Waves will increase 3 to 7 feet later tonight and those rough conditions will likely continue Sunday through Monday. Waterspouts will be very possible on Lake Erie starting tonight and lingering through Monday. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazard Statements for rip currents have been issued late tonight through at least Monday morning. These headlines will more than likely need to be extended later into Monday with future updates. High pressure will slowly build in Monday into Tuesday with nicer lake weather conditions returning by Tuesday. By Tuesday, winds will be westerly to southwesterly 5 to 15 knots and waves decreasing to 1 to 2 feet. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement from midnight EDT tonight through Monday morning for OHZ009>012-089. Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for OHZ011>014- 021>023-032-033-089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement from midnight EDT tonight through Monday morning for PAZ001. Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001>003. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Monday for LEZ144>149. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sullivan AVIATION...Kahn/Saunders MARINE...77  491 FXUS63 KGRR 221800 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms this Afternoon - Cooler with Slight Chances (20 percent) for Showers Sunday - Midweek Rain Chances && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms this Afternoon The upper level trough will continue to move through lower Michigan today. The front is currently around a Midland to Battle Creek line and shifting east. Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front before it clears later this afternoon. We'll still be under the upper level trough until tonight with some positive vorticity advection moving through the flow. Moisture is limited, but can't rule out an isolated shower this evening. Northwest winds pick up behind the front with gusts around 20 to 30 mph before the inversion builds in this evening. Warmer lake temperatures with dropping 850mb temperatures may keep the air mass unstable enough along the lakeshore for some spotty showers into early Sunday (20 percent chance). - Cooler with Slight Chances (20 percent) for Showers Sunday The upper level low will remain over the eastern Great Lakes continuing some slight chances (20 percent) in the northwest flow. Another surge of positive vorticity advection is expected to move through the afternoon which could add additional support for shower development along with some diurnal shallow instability. The best chances will be north of I-96 and taper off Sunday evening. Northwest winds will continue to be breezy with gusts to 30 mph during the day. Temperatures will be a little cooler than today with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. - Midweek Rain Chances A shortwave ridge moves in for the beginning of next week but it will be short lived. Heights begin to fall with the approaching trough Wednesday into Thursday. Warm air advection may spark off showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, otherwise the best chances (50 to 70 percent) hold off until Wednesday night when the trough axis is expected to move through. A lull is possible Thursday morning before chances increase (30 to 50 percent) again with the daytime heating Thursday afternoon. Monday will be the coolest day of next week with highs in the 70s. Temperatures then warm into the low 80s for the rest of the week. Low temperatures will largely be in the 50s with some spots dropping into the 40s Monday and Tuesday morning. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Cold front extends from vicinity of Saginaw Bay southwest to near JXN early this afternoon. Scattered convection continues to percolate along front, and LAN/JXN will run a risk (30-40%) for a shower or storm through roughly 19-20Z. MVFR ceilings/vsbys will remain possible at LAN/JXN through 19-20Z as well. Thereafter, VFR conditions are expected across West Michigan through the remainder of the TAF period. Skies will be mostly clear tonight, with perhaps some patchy 3-4kft Strato-CU in northwest flow cold air advection pattern. With 850 mb temps falling to 7-8C and water temperatures of +21-22C, influence of Lake Michigan will need to be monitored overnight, especially at MKG. This may yield slightly gustier winds and perhaps an increase in lower clouds. Expect an uptick in CU after 14-15Z Sunday, given cooler air aloft. NW winds will prevail behind cold front through 18Z Sunday, with occasional gustiness around 20 kt this afternoon and again beginning late morning Sunday. && .MARINE... Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 High Swim Risk and Small Craft Advisory conditions continue through Sunday. Northwest winds with gusts to 30 knots will cause waves to continue to build into Sunday with wave heights peaking around 5 to 7 feet Sunday afternoon. Waterspouts will also be possible tonight into early Sunday morning with the best chances toward southern Lake Michigan. Winds and waves slowly come down Sunday night into Monday. Another period of Small Craft Advisory and High Swim Risk conditions is possible Wednesday along with our next chance for showers and thunderstorms. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for MIZ037-043- 050-056-064-071. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...Smith MARINE...RAH  626 FXUS63 KLSX 221801 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 101 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will be near or a few degrees below normal in the low to mid 80s this weekend, with relatively low humidity. - Temperatures warm back up to the mid to upper 80s by midweek with slight chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 254 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The Mid Mississippi Valley remains locked in northwest flow aloft with an amplified upper level ridge centered near the Four Corners Region, and a long wave trough digging through the Ohio Valley into the Southeastern U.S. A subtle short wave embedded in the northwest flow aloft is pushing a weak cold front south through Missouri and Illinois this morning. A line of thunderstorms is moving south through central Illinois along or just ahead of the front. Expect these storms to continue moving south and out of our forecast area by 09-10Z. Temperatures behind the front will be 2 or 3 degrees cooler today in the mid 80s, and dew point temperatures will be 5+ degrees lower in most locations. High pressure drops into the Mississippi Valley behind the front with light winds and a clear sky overnight tonight. These excellent radiational cooling conditions along with the drier air behind the front will allow overnight lows to drop into the low 60s in most locations by Sunday morning. The urban heat island of St. Louis will hang on to a little more warmth, but temperatures should still drop into the mid 60s which will be the coolest lows since the beginning of August. The cool start to the day will be followed up by a cooler Sunday under the high pressure with highs in the low to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 254 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The overall weather pattern persists through next week with a ridge to the west and a trough to the east and northwest flow aloft over the Mississippi Valley. The long wave trough does attenuate somewhat in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe. This allows the ridge to to drift eastward which brings warmer temperatures and higher humidity back to the region. This doesn't look like extreme heat, just more "normal" late August heat and humidity. After another cool start to the day Monday, and highs in the low 80s, temperatures rise back into the mid and upper 80s through at least Wednesday or Thursday. Deterministic guidance shows another short wave diving southwest from south central Canada into the Great Lakes region late in the week. This pushes another cold front through the Mid Mississippi Valley with the potential for some precip and perhaps cooler temperatures for Friday. However, the LREF cluster analysis is showing variance in both the amplitude and speed of the late-week short wave. The timing and strength of the cold front along with the chance for precip that it brings is therefore questionable. Have left NBM temps and PoPs alone for the end of the week, which keeps highs in the mid to upper 80s and only sporadic slight chance PoPs. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions continue at all sites. Light winds tonight could bring some valley fog, but this is less likely due to drier air moving into the region today. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Carney LONG TERM...Carney AVIATION...Carney  478 FXUS65 KRIW 221800 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1200 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued rain shower activity extending southwest to northeast through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Storm activity possible across eastern counties late afternoon, and also Yellowstone towards sunset. Severe weather is not likely due to cloud cover at this time. - The chance of showers and storms lingers through much of the week, although today looks the most active. - Temperatures will gradually decrease to near normal levels for much of the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 No real changes to the short term forecast. Rain shower activity been near spot on in relation to HiRes data, especially the trusty NAMNest as per usual. Storm activity has been limited to about nothing due to the continued cloud cover depicted on IR. As a result, severe weather is looking less likely for eastern counties after 4PM. However, storm development looks to still occur through 8PM this evening forming a line that will produce some stronger outflows up to 50 mph (50-60%). Otherwise, instability just won't be there for much, if any, hail. No flooding issues with this progressive pattern. Storms again push out of northeastern Idaho into Yellowstone towards sunset for a couple hours towards midnight before exiting into Montana. Time of day and continued cloud cover limit the instability and any stronger storms. More isolated than scattered for Sunday compared to Saturday. Temperatures for Saturday afternoon will be bumped a bit down not taking into account the cloud cover limiting solar radiation, but a bit more sun for Sunday. Long term forecast is what it is, no changes at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 141 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The monsoon has once again arrived across the area, I believe this is the third or fourth appearance so far. So far, it has behaved. We do have some light showers across mainly the western half of the area but nothing heavy so far. The main concern in the forecast will be the potential for heavy rain and possible strong thunderstorms today. Right now, in this meteorologists opinion, potential is mixed for if we will see widespread of either. In regards to heavy rain, the main factor will be the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. Dew points have been slow to rise so far, but they should this afternoon, rising into the 50s in portions of the Big Horn Basin as well as Johnson and Natrona Counties. Precipitable water values should also be rather high. The GFS, for example, has precipitable water values about 175 to 200 percent of normal. This had been overdone by around 15 to 20 percent the past few events though. Even with this, precipitable water values over 150 percent of normal look fairly likely. There will also be some forcing in the form of a shortwave moving in from the west. This should enhance chances for all areas, so everyone will have a chance. The best chance still looks to be in northwestern Wyoming, generally a 1 in 2 chance, and there is decent model agreement in this. As for severe thunderstorms, there looks to be a decent amount of instability. This is especially so in the favored portions of our area, mainly East of the Bighorn Range in Johnson and Natrona Counties. Lifted indices fall as low as minus 4 to minus 5 with close to 1500 J/Kg of surface CAPE here. There is also a decent amount of directional shear in this area. This, plus the ample moisture, may increase the hail threat in this area. We do have a marginal risk of severe weather in portions of Johnson and Natrona Counties, and this could be expanded westward with the 13Z update. All areas could have a thunderstorm but with less instabilityand shear most storms would be sub severe. However, there are some factors against possible hazards. In regards to flooding and thunderstorms, it is cloud cover. Much of the area, especially western Wyoming, is covered by clouds as I write this around midnight. If it stays mostly cloudy for much of the day, this could limit instability somewhat and decrease the chance of stronger thunderstorms. There will likely be some areas that will be sunnier though, especially further east. And there is one more mitigating factor for heavy rain and possible flooding. With the shortwave moving through, there will be some steering flow today. It won't be strong, but most areas will have 15 to 25 knots at 500 millibars which should keep storms moving somewhat. We continue to have a marginal risk of excessive rainfall, and persistent storms could still cause flooding. But it may decrease the chance somewhat. The shortwave should clear the area by midnight, but some showers will likely linger through the night. As for temperatures, more cloud cover should lower them around 5 to 8 degrees, but it will still be above normal for almost all areas. The forecast from Sunday through much of next week looks fairly similar. We will remain on the edge of the ridge. Some monsoonal moisture will stick around, with precipitable water values remaining above average through much of the period. However, they do look lower than today, so the chance of convection should be somewhat lower. Most guidance favors western Wyoming at this time. However, given the poor performance of the models in regards to timing and placement of the showers and storms, confidence in the details remains low. Temperatures will also cool off somewhat, back down to near to just slightly above normal levels for late August. There continue to be some indications of drier air moving in for the end of next week or next weekend, possibly shutting off the monsoon and bring a period of warm, but not really hot weather for the end of August. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1114 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the period. With increasing moisture across the area, all sites will have a chance of a shower or thunderstorm today between 19z and 03z, though some lingering showers may occur through about 06z. Gusty outflow winds 30 to 50 knots will be the main concern with the stronger storms, with brief MVFR or IFR conditions if a storm moves directly over. As with usual summer afternoon convection, placement is difficult to pinpoint, so PROB30 groups cover the chances today. Least chances (about 15%) at KLND and KRIW. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Lowe DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Wittmann  868 FXUS62 KGSP 221806 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 206 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Revised analysis of a highly isolated threat of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. No major changes to overall thinking beyond tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible in the mountains and foothills through this evening. If a thunderstorm develops it could pose a risk of damaging winds. 2. Drier weather returns Sunday through early next week, followed by daily shower and thunderstorm chances returning Wednesday through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible in the mountains and foothills through this evening. If a thunderstorm develops it could pose a risk of damaging winds. A stubborn stratus deck covered most areas south and east of the Blue Ridge Escarpment through midday today. This deck should continue to erode through the afternoon. A weak convergence zone is analyzed near the Escarpment, arguably a lee trough but also possibly due to differential heating near the edge of the cloud deck. This already produced some brief and isolated showers northeast of Asheville which have now dissipated. A better defined surface front is now near the Ohio River and will make slow SE'wd progress through tonight. Profiles remain moist and warm near the surface but some drying is occurring aloft, such that prog soundings for the afternoon feature large SBCAPE as well as large DCAPE. A vort axis associated with a weak shortwave or MCV, now in eastern KY/TN, will advect slowly over the Appalachians later this afternoon and evening. With relatively fast flow at 500mb, 0-6km shear is upwards of 30 kt. As the shortwave impinges on the aforementioned weak boundaries over our area, there is reason to believe that an updraft could initiate and a strong to severe storm could quickly develop. CAMs however generally develop only sparse convection this afternoon. The 3km NAM keys more on the OH Valley front as a trigger mechanism, showing small clusters of storms evolving to our NW through late evening, bearing updraft helicity streaks. SPC highlighted the NW half of our area in a Marginal Risk which isn't wholly unreasonable, though given the lack of model response, we only have justification for isolated or widely scattered shower/storm mention. Thus, while storms overall look limited in scope, radar and satellite trends bear watching closely as the few storms that form certainly may be impactful. Key message 2: Drier weather returns Sunday through early next week, followed by daily shower and thunderstorm chances returning Wednesday through Friday. The surface front should settle southward most of the way through the CWA by Sunday morning. Closed 500mb low will remain over the northern Great Lakes, only slowly progressing eastward into the St Lawrence Valley as vortices rotate through. The axis of the surrounding trough in turn makes slow progress across the Eastern Seaboard through the early week period; deep anticyclone will remain over the southern Rockies and Plains. NW flow should continue over our area in the low levels with westerly upper flow; some mixing of drier air should occur diurnally on Sunday, effectively pushing the front southward, and it then should stall over the Deep South by Monday. The upshot for our area still looks to be mostly sunny skies and minimal chances for convection Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will remain near normal though the humidity will be low. We may experience height falls Tuesday with another weak shortwave entering the eastern trough, so it is not out of the question the front will reactivate on our southern fringe, and allow some convective activity to develop along that part of our CWA border. However, most indications are we will remain on the cool/dry side of the front and humidity and PoPs are still forecast below normal. Height falls begin more earnestly Tue night into Wed as better defined shortwave enters the MS Valley and the front thus is more likely to shift northward. For Wednesday in turn we expect seasonably hot and humid conditions to return, with PoPs in the usual 20-30% range; chances increase Wed night and Thu as the trough interacts with the front. Though the large scale pattern looks likely to feature a western ridge and eastern trough through the end of next week, models differ as to whether a drying cold front will follow the shortwave. and for now the safest bet is to assume unsettled weather (high humidity and frequent chances for showers/storms) will continue to the end of the period, though temperatures will be advertised near or even slightly below normal. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Stratocu deck at FL020-030 appears to be in the process of eroding at issuance time. Sites may go back and forth between MVFR and VFR very early in the period before the deck scatters and lifts. Once the deck scatters winds should be predominantly SW'ly this aftn, except NW at KAVL, though with weak pressure gradient periods of VRB also are likely. A few SHRA/TSRA may occur in the lee of the mountains through sunset, and a few showers could regenerate along the west slopes of the Appalachians tonight. However none of those are likely enough to affect TAF sites to warrant a mention. A dry frontal boundary will push through the area tonight and may lead to brief low-VFR to MVFR cigs though that is expected to be of little impact; winds turn NW'ly with the front as well. Conditions would appear favorable for mountain valley fog/stratus to affect KAVL, though with winds picking up behind the front they could stay too mixed. For now, have improved cigs to IFR, compared to the LIFR previously forecast, and if confidence increases on winds being steadily 6-7 kt, the restrictions may need to be completely removed. The drier post-frontal airmass suggests VFR conditions Sunday with near zero chance of SHRA/TSRA. Outlook: No significant chance of convection until Wednesday. Mountain valley fog and low stratus is possible each morning. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ JCW  855 FXUS64 KMOB 221805 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 105 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 105 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - A Heat Advisory is in effect tomorrow for southeast Mississippi from 11AM to 8PM for heat indices up to 109. - Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the seabreeze each afternoon this weekend. Brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds are the main impacts. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 105 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 This weekend we finally have some reprieve from the numerous daily thunderstorms with drier air moving in from the north. PWATs have decreased and will be in the 1.4-1.6" range for the remainder of the weekend. Isolated storms cannot be ruled out just along the seabreeze both afternoons. It is still hot with highs above normal in the mid to upper 90s for most of the area and possibly reaching 100, especially in our southeast Mississippi counties tomorrow. Afternoon dewpoints will be lower from the drier air moving in and drop into the mid to upper 60s for most inland areas with some low 60s possible for our northernmost counties. A Heat Advisory was issued for 11AM-8PM tomorrow for our southeast Mississippi counties for heat index values up to 109. Elsewhere, heat index values are just below criteria in the 100-107 range with some localized areas along the coast that may briefly reach up to 110 behind the afternoon seabreeze. Anybody outdoors should drink plenty of water and take breaks in A/C when possible. Moving into next week, the trough that brought the dry air will move off to the east. PWATs increase back to above average beginning Monday through the end of the week with ensemble mean values of 1.9- 2.2". An upper ridge currently centered over the Desert Southwest will slowly build in from the west. This places the area under northwesterly flow aloft on the eastern periphery of the ridge. This pattern can bring more organized convection down into our area, so we will watch for any of these ridge riders watch as we head into the next week. Otherwise, expect normal summertime scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon next week. Typical summertime heat is in store next week with high temperatures closer to normal in the low to mid 90s and afternoon dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Heat index values look to continue to be just below the Heat Advisory threshold of 108 for much of next week, with maximum values of 100-107 for much of the area each day. Heat headlines are not completely out of the question, but the convective coverage each day should limit the heat somewhat. Low temperatures bring some overnight relief with values in the low 70s for a majority of the area with mid to upper 70s just along the coast. ...BEACH FORECAST... The rip current risk will continue to be low for all area beaches in Florida and Alabama. Outside of any storms, surf heights remain generally 1 to potentially 2 feet through the end next week. SS/97 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 105 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period, outside of any isolated thunderstorms that develop late this afternoon. Light northerly flow will turn southerly along the immediate coastline by late afternoon with light and variable winds expected overnight. 07/mb && .MARINE... Issued at 105 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A light to occasionally moderate westerly flow pattern continues through late next week. Winds are expected to follow a pattern that shifts from southwesterly each afternoon to northwesterly late each night. Isolated to potentially scattered showers and storms can be expected each morning next week with locally higher seas and winds near storms. SS/97 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 74 97 74 93 / 0 20 10 50 Pensacola 77 95 78 92 / 10 20 10 50 Destin 79 94 80 91 / 0 20 10 40 Evergreen 71 98 71 94 / 0 10 0 40 Waynesboro 73 99 72 94 / 20 10 10 40 Camden 72 96 71 93 / 10 10 10 50 Crestview 72 98 72 95 / 0 20 10 50 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079. GM...None. && $$  016 FXUS64 KMRX 221809 AAA AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 209 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 127 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - This afternoon and evening, isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected in Northeast Tennessee, Southwest Virginia and the East Tennessee Mountains. - Sunday and Monday will be dry with rain chances returning midweek. && .UPDATE... Issued at 728 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Published a small update a brief bit ago to add fog into the early morning sunrise period and to expand the area of low rain and storm chances for later this afternoon and early evening after seeing the new day 1 forecast from the Storm Prediction Center. Coverage south of Interstate 40 is likely to be very isolated, if anything occurs at all, but cannot rule out the chance for a strong to severe wind gust given the dry air aloft. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 203 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 In the upper levels, a trough is over the Ohio Valley, extending down to Florida. At the surface, a stationary boundary is over North Georgia. Showers and storms have mostly dissipated for the rest of the night. In the early morning hours, clearing skies will lead to fog development near bodies of water and low-lying areas. Patchy dense fog will be possible in the early morning hours. A cold front will approach the region this afternoon and evening, bringing isolated to scattered showers and storms in Northeast Tennessee, Southwest Virginia and the East Tennessee Mountains. Elsewhere, will be mostly dry but some isolated activity will be possible. Some of the CAMs have come in wetter for today this cycle than last cycle, I think the timing of the cold front is lining up better with max heating. A few strong storms, possibly even severe can't be ruled out. The front will move through this evening bringing cooler temps and lower dew points tonight and tomorrow. Sunday dew points will be in the 60s and highs will be in the 80s (Chattanooga area may hit 90). Sunday and Monday will be dry with high pressure at the surface. The upper level pattern will be about the same with a deep trough on the East Coast and a ridge centered over the Rockies. The NBM has low rain chances Tuesday increasing to 30-40% chances by Wednesday. The trough will be centered over the Ohio Valley again by midweek with at least one shortwave rotating through the pattern Wednesday night or Thursday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 127 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 At least some ISOLD SHRA/TSRA are expected in East Tennessee this afternoon, with a little better coverage expected with an additional round of convection tonight just along/ahead of an incoming front. KTRI stands the best chance of seeing SHRA/TSRA but even that's not certain. Have PROB30 groups in at KTRI and KTYS to handle things. KCHA seems less likely to see any convection. The last item of note is there could be some fog development later tonight but uncertainty in how quickly clouds clear out preclude mentioning that in the TAFs for the moment. KTRI would be the most likely to see it if it occurs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 68 90 64 / 0 20 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 65 86 62 / 20 30 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 90 63 86 60 / 20 30 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 62 81 56 / 40 40 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...McD AVIATION...CD  360 FXUS63 KMQT 221811 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 211 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across mainly central Upper Michigan later today with minimal rainfall totals. - Seasonable temperatures are expected through next week with the exception of slightly below normal temperatures Sunday and Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 410 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Radar mosaic has been somewhat quiet over the last several hours with just an uptick in showers/isolated storms across the west. Latest radar mosaic shows that weak convection now moving southeastward along the WI/MI border. With limited instability, however, do not anticipate this activity to produce much rain or thunder. Later today, additional scattered showers and weak storms are possible as another cold front and shortwave drop southeast overhead. That said, CAMs are even less impressed with this round. Outside the south-central where some spots could reach up to 0.25 inches, accumulations remain below 0.1 inches. Highs will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Currently, ground-based obs across the area are reporting low 50s over much the interior west with visibility restrictions of 1/4 mile at both Sawyer and Iron Mountain. By daybreak, these areas could drop into the upper 40s. Elsewhere, the southern and eastern UP and Keweenaw are reporting temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. Temps continue to decrease this weekend, bottoming out Sunday as a mid level trough deepens over the Great Lakes. CAA lowers 850 mb temps to between 3-6C, yielding highs in the 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s to mid 50s. Some interior spots likely will dip back into the upper 30s Sunday night. Northerly winds are expected to gust up to 20 mph on Saturday and between 20-30 mph on Sunday, highest east...particularly near Lake Superior. High pressure moving in from the west keeps weather dry through Monday, likely through most of Tuesday as well before the next mid level trough moves through the region. This brings back shower and storm chances for Tuesday night and Wednesday, then dry weather is favored the rest of the work week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 211 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Largely VFR conditions are expected through the period, with exceptions for ongoing, off-and-on MVFR ceilings at IWD for the next few hours, as well as potential (30%) MVFR ceilings at SAW during the early morning hours due to 20-40% chances of precipitation. Due to a moist atmosphere and diminishing overnight winds, fog may materialize at IWD during the early morning hours, but given the low (15%) chance of MVFR ceilings and very low (<10%) chance of LIFR ceilings, this was not included in the TAF at this time. Winds should remain gusty at CMX overnight, with sustained winds diminishing to just below 10 knots overnight before building back above 10 knots by daybreak. CMX, too, has low (roughly 15%) yet nonzero probabilities of MVFR ceilings during the early morning hours into the morning. For SAW, radar currently shows isolated rain clouds forming in its vicinity before tracking SE away from the TAF site and growing into thunderstorms once further away; thus, the TAF includes only VCSH continuing through the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 348 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Lake Superior - Northwest winds behind a cold front increase on Saturday to 20-30 kts over the east half of the lake by late afternoon, strongest near the south-central shores. Gusts approach 20 kts over the west. As winds become more northerly Saturday night behind a second cold front, central lake superior winds increase to 15-25 kts; the stronger winds to 30 kts over the east persist. This holds into Sunday morning before winds gradually simmer down from west to east into Sunday night. This builds significant waves of 3-7 ft over the southeastern waters this weekend. Probabilities for gales to 35 kts are only between 15-25%, highest south of Stannard Rock and along the Marquette/Alger County shores. Winds otherwise remain below 20 kts through Tuesday before the next system brings back winds up to 20-25 kts Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Northern Bay of Green Bay and northern Lake Michigan - Southerly winds of 15-25 kts ahead of the cold front this afternoon drop off into this evening, becoming northwest for Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening, but severe storms are not expected. Winds increase to 20-30 kts this weekend as a colder airmass descends over the Great Lakes. Winds fall back below 20 kts Sunday night, remaining below 20 kts through much of next week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ005-006. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TDUD AVIATION...RE/GS MARINE...77  416 FXUS61 KALY 221812 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 212 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Refined timing for showers and thunderstorms Sunday. First, more widespread round moves through in the morning to early afternoon. Additional, scattered showers and thunderstorms develop from mid afternoon to early evening. Coverage looks less later in the day. There remains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms across the entire region on Sunday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Likelihood of showers and thunderstorms increases late tonight into Sunday. A few storms may become severe on Sunday. 2) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday and Tuesday, especially near and north of I-90. Temperatures will be below normal. 3) Chances of showers and thunderstorms return late next week along with warmer temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... An upper level trough over our region will deepen through the rest of the weekend, as a closed low develops across the Great Lakes and far SE Canada. Initially, our area will be on the downstream/diffluent side of the trough axis, with an associated occluded surface front tracking NE Sun morning into early afternoon. A weak surface wave developing along the front along with PWAT anomalies briefly increasing to +1 to +2 STDEV, could result in brief downpours associated with any convection with the occluded front. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms Sunday, first with convective clusters/lines in the morning to early afternoon with potential for isolated damaging winds gusts. Then, there looks to be another period for more cellular storm mode in the afternoon, with de-stabilization (SB CAPE of 700-1500 J/Kg) and 0-6 km shear increasing to 35-40 kt in wake of the front (from REFS). Breaks of sunshine and residual low level moisture, along with falling heights aloft will result in potential for some additional severe storms, with both isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail the main threats. Coverage of shower/T-storms should be less compared to the morning though. Convection should dissipate shortly after sunset Sunday evening, as instability wanes and a small low level ridge builds in from the west. KEY MESSAGE 2... The main core of the upper level low mentioned above will be firmly established near the far southern Ontario/Quebec border by Mon and will be anomalously strong (500 mb height anomalies of -2 to -3 STDEV). A potent short wave disturbance rotating around the periphery of the low center, is expected to move across our area. This will result in additional showers and a few T-storms, especially Mon afternoon to early evening. Showers will be most numerous across the Adirondacks, where there will be upslope/lake enhancement with a cold core aloft moving overhead with W-SW flow developing. While the overall threat for severe weather appears low, there is potential for at least a few storms to produce small hail and/or gusty winds due to steepening low/mid level lapse rates. The core of the upper low is expected to track into southern Quebec on Tue, with the system's upper trough axis still in place across our region. This will result in additional showers developing, although lower coverage compared to Mon (mainly isolated to scattered). Showers will be most favored across westerly upslope areas of the higher terrain. It will also be breezy, with westerly winds gusting 20-25 mph at times in favored areas. Temperatures will remain below normal through Tuesday. KEY MESSAGE 3... After a break in the unsettled weather on Wed, chances for showers/T-storms will increase again during the Thu/Fri time frame, as a broad upper level trough approaches from the west. Potential multiple short wave passages should result in scattered to numerous showers, with T-storms also possible depending on instability and moisture return. Confidence in timing/coverage is low due to uncertainty in details of smaller scale features this far out. Temperatures look to warm back to normal mid-late next week too. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 18z/Sunday...VFR conditions remain through the afternoon across the terminals before ceilings begin to lower to MVFR this evening due to an approaching frontal system. MVFR ceilings will continue overnight at all of the terminals along with the possibility of fog/mist developing at KGFL and KPSF near sunrise. CAMs also suggest rain showers arriving between about 08z to 13z from the west lowering ceilings and visibilities to MVFR. After sunrise, model soundings continue to show low stratus persisting into the late morning maintaining MVFR ceilings and even lowering to IFR/LIFR for periods through the end of the TAF period. Additional chances of steadier rain showers and isolated thunderstorms through the end of the TAF period could lower flight conditions to MVFR/IFR, but confidence will increase with following TAF cycles. Winds through the TAF period will prevail out of the southeast with speeds this afternoon 5-10 kt becoming 5 kt or less overnight. Winds tomorrow generally range 5-10 kt, however stronger gusts around 25 kt could accompany any thunderstorms that develops. Outlook... Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...FG. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...53  446 FXUS64 KSJT 221813 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 113 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Big Country, Heartland and Concho Valley areas this afternoon and again on Sunday afternoon. - There is a low (15%-20%) chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms, mainly across the Big Country, this afternoon and evening. - Hot and mainly dry weather will persist through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 111 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Big Country, Heartland, and Concho Valley until 7 PM this evening. A cold front is stalled near the Red River. Isolated showers are occurring in the vicinity of the front. High resolution models are indicating an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon as daytime heating occurs. This activity is then forecast to move south this evening, before dissipating by mid to late evening. Low end (15-20%) rain chances were continued across mainly the Big Country this evening. Any storms that do develop will have the potential of producing strong gusty winds. Overnight lows will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. An upper level ridge is forecast to be centered across West Texas and southeast New Mexico on Sunday. This will result in a continuation of the above normal temperatures. Highs will be in the upper 90s to near 108. A Heat Advisory was issued for the Big Country, Concho Valley, and Heartland, where temperatures are forecast to reach or exceed 105 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Saturday) Issued at 111 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Very hot and dry conditions are forecast through the extended forecast through much of next week. An upper level ridge will remain centered across southeast New Mexico through the middle of the week. This will result in highs in the upper 90s to near 106 for much of the area, so Heat Advisories are likely for the Big Country, Concho Valley, and Heartland through at least the middle of next week. Portions of the Big Country, especially the northern counties, may reach 110 degrees Monday afternoon, so Extreme Heat Warnings may be needed. The aforementioned upper level ridge begins to slowly shift west by the end of next week, which may result in slightly "less hot" temperatures. Still, temperatures will continue to remain above normal, in the upper 90s to near 103. West Central Texas will be on the eastern periphery of the ridge late next week, as the upper level ridge shifts west. This may allow for the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late next week. For now, continued low end (15-20%) rain chances as confidence remains low. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1136 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the TAF period. Expect the hot and dry conditions to persist. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 81 106 81 107 / 10 0 0 0 San Angelo 77 104 77 104 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 75 103 73 103 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 77 105 77 106 / 10 0 0 0 Sweetwater 80 106 80 107 / 10 0 0 0 Ozona 74 99 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 76 103 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan- Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Jones-McCulloch-Nolan-Runnels- San Saba-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for Brown-Callahan- Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Jones-Mason-McCulloch-Nolan- Runnels-San Saba-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...Daniels LONG TERM....Daniels AVIATION...41  451 FXUS66 KSGX 221813 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 1113 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Monsoonal moisture will decrease this weekend, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for the mountains and lower deserts returning for Monday afternoon. Above average high and low temperatures will continue through next week. Widespread moderate to locally major HeatRisk for the coast, valleys, and mountains except near the beaches and for the higher elevations in the mountains, with major to extreme HeatRisk for the lower deserts. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... A couple of record high minimum temperatures were set yesterday as moisture aloft and high clouds inhibit radiation cooling at night. A few high clouds continue this morning as patchy marine layer low clouds form over the coastal areas. Numerical models remain in good agreement with respect to the synoptic pattern. The dominant high pressure will remain in place over the southwest US with some variations in the location of the center and orientation of the ridge axis, with the ridge becoming less amplified at times as a couple of major shortwave troughs move inland over the Pacific Northwest. As a result, the marine layer will remain shallow with low clouds restricted to the coastal areas and little day-to-day change. Daytime high temperatures will likely remain generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Guidance also indicates that overnight low temperatures will remain above normal. These temperature trends make it more likely that the inland valleys, mountains and high desert will experience moderate HeatRisk through next week with some areas of Major HeatRisk. The lower deserts will likely experience persistent Major HeatRisk through next week. The one caveat is that the changes in position and orientation of the high could result in a reduction of deep-layer moisture aloft. This will certainly reduce the chances for pm showers/tstms in the mtns and deserts but could also allow for improved radiation cooling at night leading to lower overnight temperatures. At this time lower overnight temperatures seems to be a low probability of occurrence. && .AVIATION... 221810Z...Coast...Mostly clear by this afternoon through the evening hours. Low to moderate chance on cigs returning at the beaches after 04Z this evening. Confidence higher on cigs impacting coastal TAF sites between 10-15Z Sun with bases near 500-1000 ft MSL. Locally lower cigs near 200-400 ft MSL in higher terrain. Vis lowering near 2-4 sm for most areas, locally below 1 sm. Clouds clearing 14-16Z with moderate confidence on timing. Otherwise...Mostly clear through the TAF period. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday. Increasing south swell mid to late next week starting Wednesday with waves up to 6 feet. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for Coachella Valley- San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...PG AVIATION/MARINE...APR  495 FXUS61 KOKX 221814 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 214 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rounds of showers this weekend, possible thunderstorms. Marginal severe risk Sunday into Sunday evening. 2) After possible lingering showers Monday, prolonged stretch of mainly dry weather next week Monday night though midweek. Temperatures trend from below normal to closer to normal. 3) Chances for showers and thunderstorm return towards the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Rounds of showers this weekend, possible thunderstorms. Marginal severe risk Sunday into Sunday evening. The weather pattern taking shape for this weekend is unsettled featuring cyclonic flow aloft and surface low pressure not too far away from the local area. Deep shear present much of the time for the area near 30-35 kt. 500mb forecast model charts indicate a faster decline of heights tonight through the rest of the weekend. Strong shortwave moves into Great Lakes today and then moves southeast of the Great Lakes tonight into early Monday. At the surface, behind one wave of low pressure along a front, another low pressure wave approaches late tonight. The wave of low pressure also passes northeast of the region early Sunday. While model PWATs indicate near 2 inches with the wave of low pressure, the pattern is progressive and convective elements are expected to exhibit a sufficient translational speed to mitigate flooding potential. Also related to this is where the higher chances of thunderstorms are forecast which for tonight is more across parts of Long Island where flash flood guidance is higher. Overall, expect any flooding to stay minor nuisance within urban, low-lying and poor drainage areas. However, the trough of low pressure will still be near the area. This will be an associated cold front moving through the area Sunday but weakening and dissipating Sunday night. Dewpoints will be trending higher and the air will be more humid. Despite this, PWATs are actually decreasing Sunday into Sunday night with relatively more shear compared to the previous day. CAPE will be limited with all the clouds and shower activity before the cold front moves in. Still though in this low CAPE high shear environment, a thunderstorm could quickly mature and become strong with a quick downburst of wind. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms for much of the area Sunday into Sunday evening. The limiting factor will be the decreasing moisture in the atmosphere which will not allow for much expansion of convection and limit its coverage. .KEY MESSAGE 2... After possible lingering showers Monday, prolonged stretch of mainly dry weather next week Monday night though midweek. Temperatures trend from below normal Monday through Tuesday to closer to normal Tuesday night through Wednesday. Still have quite a bit of cyclonic flow aloft Monday with deep trough cutoff low making its way across the Northeast. The center of the cutoff upper level low is well north of the local area. Another weak cold front moves across Monday night but will not have much moisture associated with it. The POPs will be pretty low with this front and a lot of locations may very well end up staying dry. Models coherent on an area of positive vorticity maxima moving into the local region Monday morning into Monday afternoon. While there is a lot of westerly flow, models are struggling to depict much if any precipitation and why the national blend of models is dry. However, the cyclonic flow aloft and positive vorticity advection will present strong forcing for more clouds and some shower or thunderstorm activity. Coverage only isolated to widely scattered for any showers and thunderstorms. More height rises seen in the mid levels Monday night through midweek. A pattern change is evident within the forecast models of a transition from cyclonic cutoff low to quasi-zonal flow. At the surface, after the cold front Monday night, another cold front moves across Tuesday night, followed by weak high pressure heading into the middle of the week. Dry conditions are expected to prevail with more westerly flow getting established within the atmosphere. .KEY MESSAGE 3... The models are forecasting the approach of another frontal system from the west along with an upper level trough towards the latter part of next week. This will make for a return to a more unsettled weather pattern. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A weak wave of low pressure slowly approaches from the south this afternoon into tonight, passing through some terminals Sunday morning. VFR this afternoon except MVFR east of the city. All terminals lower to IFR late tonight with showers and eventually improve back to VFR Sunday afternoon. Although cannot rule out thunder as early as early this evening, better overall chances (noted with PROB30) start after sunrise on Sunday with the approach and passage of the low center and subsequent approach of a weak cold front/trough later in the day. Winds mainly E to SE under 10kt through tonight, shifting briefly SE to S Sunday morning, then SW by around noontime for most terminals. Terminals east of NYC shift SW later in the day. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Shift to E-SE at KLGA may be off by an hour or two. For all terminals, IFR might not happen tonight with conds instead remaining MVFR. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Sunday: VFR with SW gusts 15-20kt. Monday through Wednesday: VFR. SW gusts around 20kt on Monday afternoon. Thursday: VFR AM, chance of sub-VFR and -shra PM. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Pressure gradient remains relatively weak through the forecast period. Conditions on the forecast marine zones stay below SCA thresholds. Rip Currents: The rip current risk with very light winds today looks to be overall low. With increasing southerly winds Sunday, more of a moderate rip current risk is expected. The swell will still have southerly and easterly components. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ AVIATION...JC  588 FXUS62 KRAH 221815 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 215 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Nothing significant && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 215 PM Saturday... 1) A chance of mostly general thunderstorms will linger through this evening, with a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk of a severe cell or two over the Piedmont (especially the nw Piedmont). 2) Drier air will move into the region from the north on Sunday, lowering the relative humidity. A chance of showers will return to the forecast by mid-week, with the most likely day for rain being Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... As of 215 PM Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1... A chance of mostly general thunderstorms will linger through this evening, with a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk of a severe cell or two over the Piedmont (especially the nw Piedmont). Within a synoptic trough amplifying from cntl Canada to the srn Appalachians, a lead mid/upr-level impulse now over ern TN will pivot across the wrn Carolinas through this evening, then lift newd and across and offshore the srn Middle Atlantic through early Sun. Related weak height falls (10-30 meters) and modest mid/level cooling 1-2 C at 500 mb) will result over cntl NC through tonight. At the surface, weak high pressure and divergence have been over cntl NC today, as have widespread low cloudiness and stability, between a pair of quiasi-stationary fronts draped across sern NC through cntl SC/GA and another over n-cntl VA. A separate surface cold front related to the approaching synoptic trough, now stretching from MI swwd into the mid MS Valley, will likely spread east of the Blue Ridge early Sun. The presence of the lingering high and stability over cntl NC will likely yield just a scattering of weak cells over cntl NC through this evening. The exception will be over the Piedmont (especially the nw Piedmont), where the aforementioned mid-level height falls and cooling will be maximized and accompanied by an increase in mid/upr-level swly flow. Hodographs will consequently become elongated over the Piedmont through this evening, mostly above 5-6 km and with some counter-clockwise curvature. Cells there may locally strengthen and offer a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps even some hail given both the cooling mid-levels and a conditional risk of a few splitting cells (with left-moving ones favored). KEY MESSAGE 2... Drier air will move into the region from the north on Sunday, lowering the relative humidity. A chance of showers will return to the forecast by mid-week, with the most likely day for rain being Thursday. While the air won't be particularly moist Sunday morning, it should be noticeably drier later in the day as a cold front pushes through. While dewpoints may remain in the mid to upper 60s in the southeastern part of the forecast area by sunset, dewpoints should drop into the mid to upper 50s in the Triad, a pleasant change for late August. While the southern tip of Sampson County could see an isolated thunderstorm Sunday or Monday, the rest of the area will be dry. Sunday's cold front will hang up along the Gulf Coast for the first half of the week before pushing back to the north on Wednesday and Thursday, becoming nearly stationary over North Carolina. Expect a chance of showers/storms in all locations Wednesday, with the greatest chance occurring on Thursday. It appears that the front should then slide closer to the coast on Friday and Saturday, leaving more scattered precipitation coverage across central North Carolina on those two days. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 145 PM Saturday... MVFR stratocumulus ceilings will continue to lift and/or scatter to VFR this afternoon, with related warming and destabilization that will allow for widely scattered convection to develop with the approach of a mid/upr-level disturbance from ern TN. The relative highest probability of occurrence of convection, generally between 30-60 percent, will be at INT/GSO this evening. A moist airmass will otherwise remain in place over much of cntl NC and probably support the development of at least patchy fog and low stratus overnight-Sun morning, especially at ern terminals, ahead of a cold front that will approach from the west and move across cntl NC early Sun. Outlook: High pressure and associated dry, continental air will build across the OH Valley and Middle Atlantic and favor mostly VFR conditions in cntl NC through Tue, before moisture and lift increase, and the chance of convection returns, by Wed-Thu. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWS/Green AVIATION...MWS  725 FXUS64 KEWX 221819 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 119 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 117 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Heat Advisory continues for the northern Hill Country, I-35 Corridor, and Coastal Plains through Sunday. - Isolated showers and storms possible mainly over the northern Hill Country this afternoon. - Hot and dry weather will persist through the upcoming week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 117 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Mid and upper level high pressure centered over the southern U.S. Rockies will remain the dominant weather feature to influence the weather pattern across south central Texas. The will result in continued above normal temperatures across south central Texas. The Heat Advisory continues through Sunday evening. We will keep a low chance (20%) for an isolated shower or storm across portions of the northern Hill Country (mainly Llano and Burnet Counties) through this afternoon as daytime heating along with a nearby mid- level Theta-E ridge axis could be enough to help initiate some isolated convection this afternoon. If these isolated cells manage to develop, some gusty winds will be in store given the high-based nature of the convection. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 117 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 For much of the upcoming week, mid and upper level high pressure remains anchored over the southern Rockies into northern Mexico. Time series plots of model derived 850 mb temperatures show little change through the week. Based on the current guidance, we may need to extend the current Heat Advisory further in time if models continue to remain consistent. High temperatures will likely remain in the upper 90s to near 106 degrees along with overnight lows in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 117 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The next 24-30 hours will be a repeat of the last few days with no major impacts to area airports. All terminals will be VFR through the period with only a few low clouds Sunday morning. Winds will be less than 10 kts for a southerly direction. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 80 104 78 104 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 79 104 78 104 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 77 103 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 77 103 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 78 104 77 103 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 80 104 78 104 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 76 103 73 102 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 77 103 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 104 76 103 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 78 103 76 103 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 77 105 76 103 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ171>173-191>194- 205>209-220>225. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...Platt  764 FXUS62 KGSP 221820 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 220 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Revised analysis of a highly isolated threat of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. No major changes to overall thinking beyond tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible in the mountains and foothills through this evening. If a thunderstorm develops it could pose a risk of damaging winds. 2. Drier weather returns Sunday through early next week, followed by daily shower and thunderstorm chances returning Wednesday through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible in the mountains and foothills through this evening. If a thunderstorm develops it could pose a risk of damaging winds. A stubborn stratus deck covered most areas south and east of the Blue Ridge Escarpment through midday today. This deck should continue to erode through the afternoon. A weak convergence zone is analyzed near the Escarpment, arguably a lee trough but also possibly due to differential heating near the edge of the cloud deck. This already produced some brief and isolated showers northeast of Asheville which have now dissipated. A better defined surface front is now near the Ohio River and will make slow SE'wd progress through tonight. Profiles remain moist and warm near the surface but some drying is occurring aloft, such that prog soundings for the afternoon feature large SBCAPE as well as large DCAPE. A vort axis associated with a weak shortwave or MCV, now in eastern KY/TN, will advect slowly over the Appalachians later this afternoon and evening. With relatively fast flow at 500mb, 0-6km shear is upwards of 30 kt. As the shortwave impinges on the aforementioned weak boundaries over our area, there is reason to believe that an updraft could initiate and a strong to severe storm could quickly develop. CAMs however generally develop only sparse convection this afternoon. The 3km NAM keys more on the OH Valley front as a trigger mechanism, showing small clusters of storms evolving to our NW through late evening, bearing updraft helicity streaks. Given the setup, that is a somewhat plausible scenario. SPC highlighted the NW half of our area in a Marginal Risk which isn't unreasonable, though given the lack of model response, we only have justification for isolated or widely scattered shower/storm mention. Thus, while storms overall look limited in scope, radar and satellite trends bear watching closely as the few storms that form certainly may be impactful. Key message 2: Drier weather returns Sunday through early next week, followed by daily shower and thunderstorm chances returning Wednesday through Friday. The surface front should settle southward most of the way through the CWA by Sunday morning. Closed 500mb low will remain over the northern Great Lakes, only slowly progressing eastward into the St Lawrence Valley as vortices rotate through. The axis of the surrounding trough in turn makes slow progress across the Eastern Seaboard through the early week period; deep anticyclone will remain over the southern Rockies and Plains. NW flow should continue over our area in the low levels with westerly upper flow; some mixing of drier air should occur diurnally on Sunday, effectively pushing the front southward, and it then should stall over the Deep South by Monday. The upshot for our area still looks to be mostly sunny skies and minimal chances for convection Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will remain near normal though the humidity will be low. We may experience height falls Tuesday with another weak shortwave entering the eastern trough, so it is not out of the question the front will reactivate on our southern fringe, and allow some convective activity to develop along that part of our CWA border. However, most indications are we will remain on the cool/dry side of the front and humidity and PoPs are still forecast below normal. Height falls begin more earnestly Tue night into Wed as better defined shortwave enters the MS Valley and the front thus is more likely to shift northward. For Wednesday in turn we expect seasonably hot and humid conditions to return, with PoPs in the usual 20-30% range; chances increase Wed night and Thu as the trough interacts with the front. Though the large scale pattern looks likely to feature a western ridge and eastern trough through the end of next week, models differ as to whether a drying cold front will follow the shortwave. and for now the safest bet is to assume unsettled weather (high humidity and frequent chances for showers/storms) will continue to the end of the period, though temperatures will be advertised near or even slightly below normal. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Stratocu deck at FL020-030 appears to be in the process of eroding at issuance time. Sites may go back and forth between MVFR and VFR very early in the period before the deck scatters and lifts. Once the deck scatters winds should be predominantly SW'ly this aftn, except NW at KAVL, though with weak pressure gradient periods of VRB also are likely. A few SHRA/TSRA may occur in the lee of the mountains through sunset, and a few showers could regenerate along the west slopes of the Appalachians tonight. However none of those are likely enough to affect TAF sites to warrant a mention. A dry frontal boundary will push through the area tonight and may lead to brief low-VFR to MVFR cigs though that is expected to be of little impact; winds turn NW'ly with the front as well. Conditions would appear favorable for mountain valley fog/stratus to affect KAVL, though with winds picking up behind the front they could stay too mixed. For now, have improved cigs to IFR, compared to the LIFR previously forecast, and if confidence increases on winds being steadily 6-7 kt, the restrictions may need to be completely removed. The drier post-frontal airmass suggests VFR conditions Sunday with near zero chance of SHRA/TSRA. Outlook: No significant chance of convection until Wednesday. Mountain valley fog and low stratus is possible each morning. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ JCW  850 FXUS64 KFWD 221821 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 121 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures near or over 100 degrees will continue through next week, with the hottest days of the summer likely Sunday through Tuesday. - An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for parts of North Texas with a Heat Advisory across the rest of North and Central Texas, and these will likely be extended into early next week. - Isolated thunderstorms are possible later today and tonight, and a few could be strong with gusty winds. However, most areas will remain rain-free through at least the middle of next week. - Hot temperatures and low humidity will contribute to increased wildfire starts this weekend through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through tonight) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Latest radar imagery show the earlier showers and thunderstorms that affect much of southern Oklahoma all day and oozed southward into our area have mostly dissipated. However, this activity has left thick high level cloud cover north of I-20 which has held temperatures down especially closer to the Red River. Based on this, have gone ahead and removed Jack/Wise/Denton/Collin Counties from the Extreme Heat Warning and put them in the Heat Advisory. Despite the cloud cover, highs should still easily reach well into the 90s in our north and 100s elsewhere - with the hottest temperatures expected in the EHW. Although an isolated shower/storm could pop up this afternoon, CAMs have backed off this idea in favor of the shortwave currently moving southward across Kansas/Oklahoma. As this system arrives tonight, CAMs such as the HRRR/HREF indicate isolated showers/storms could move southward out of Oklahoma into North Texas in the 03-09Z timeframe. Have adjusted pops to match this possibility. Otherwise, another warm night in the 70s/80s is anticipated areawide. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Forecast reasoning for next week remains unchanged from previous discussions. The strong upper level ridge centered over New Mexico/West Texas will shift closer to us from Sunday into Tuesday, before gradually shifting back to the west from Wednesday through the rest of the week. This pattern will give North and Central Texas three very hot days from Sunday to Tuesday with highs reaching the hottest of the summer so far into the 103-113 range. The Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory will certainly need to be extended through at least Tuesday of next week. Although a few isolated showers or storms are possible in East Texas on Sunday afternoon, the rest of this three day period will be hot and dry. From Wednesday into next weekend, the center of the H5 ridge will shift westward into Arizona with heights falling aloft and somewhat stronger upper level northerly flow developing over North and Central Texas. This pattern shift will "cool" our high temperatures down into the 98-104 range for the remainder of the week, while also bringing low rain chances each day. Don't get too excited, however, as most areas will stay hot and dry. Given the continued heat and lack of substantial rainfall, drought conditions are likely to worsen with a continued/increasing threat of wildfire starts. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions will continue at airports this TAF period. Earlier scattered SHRA/TSRA to the north of D10 have left considerable high level cloud cover across the Metroplex. However, no precip is anticipated at airports this afternoon. Tonight, both the HRRR and HREF models indicate a few SHRA could impact D10 between 03-09Z, so will adjust the PROB30 mention accordingly. South winds 5-10 knots will predominate but with occasional veering/backing to southwest/southeast. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 107 85 108 / 10 0 0 0 Waco 81 105 81 105 / 10 0 0 0 Paris 76 104 80 106 / 20 10 0 10 Denton 81 107 84 108 / 20 10 0 0 McKinney 80 106 83 107 / 20 10 0 0 Dallas 84 108 85 108 / 10 10 0 0 Terrell 79 106 82 107 / 10 10 0 0 Corsicana 81 105 81 106 / 10 10 0 0 Temple 79 105 78 105 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 78 108 81 109 / 10 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-101>107- 122-123-129-135-141>148-156>162-174-175. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ100- 115>121-130>134. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION...Shamburger  791 FXUS65 KMSO 221820 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1220 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Strong thunderstorms today through the afternoon and evening. Gusty outflow winds as the main threat. - Cold front Sunday brings cooler temperatures but gusty westerly winds and dry air. - Ridge rebuilds early next week, warming and drying trend. Partial clearing across southern and central Idaho has allowed for diurnal heating and weak instability by midday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increasingly initiate over higher terrain early this afternoon over Idaho and Lemhi counties and track northeastward. Multiple rounds of convection will persist through the evening, particularly across northwest Montana. The primary hazard will be gusty outflow winds of 35-45 mph, with a Marginal Risk (5% probability) for isolated severe gusts exceeding 58 mph. Frequent lightning (posing a threat for new fire starts) and small hail remain secondary concerns. Precipitable water (PWAT) values near 1.0 inch, anomalously high for the region will yield a localized threat for excessive runoff and flash flooding over steep terrain, urban centers, and burn scars. Elevated instability will persist overnight across western Montana, maintaining the potential for isolated thunderstorms into early Sunday morning. A cold front will cross the Northern Rockies late tonight into Sunday, bringing brief thermal relief as daytime highs drop 10-15 degrees to near seasonal averages. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind the front will combine with a dry post-frontal airmass to yield gusty westerly winds. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the region Sunday afternoon, potentially critical for parts of southwest Montana. Ridge rebuilding early next week will mark a return to hot and mostly dry conditions, though isolated afternoon thunderstorms remain possible in Lemhi County and southwestern Montana. By mid- to-late next week, ensemble cluster analysis indicates 70% confidence in a return to a trough over the Pacific Northwest. This pattern would support cooling with seasonable daytime temperatures, breezy afternoon winds, and scattered showers/thunderstorms (although not a particularly wet pattern). && .AVIATION...Partial clearing across southern and central Idaho will promote weak destabilization this afternoon, supporting scattered strong thunderstorms tracking southwest to northeast between 22/1900Z and 23/0400Z. Direct convective impacts will include erratic outflow gusts of 30-40 kt, small hail, and localized MVFR visibilities in brief heavy downpours. Low-level wind shear (LLWS) and localized turbulence are expected near storm cores. Widespread VFR conditions will return post-frontal on Sunday, though deep boundary-layer mixing will yield gusty westerly surface wind gusts of 20-30 kt. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Red Flag Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 AM MDT Sunday for Kootenai...West Lolo. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for Deerlodge/West Beaverhead. ID...None. && $$  000 FXUS61 KCAR 221823 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 223 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... -No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Widespread rain tonight into Monday will help ease ongoing drought conditions in some areas. Rain may be heavy at times tonight into Sunday, especially across Downeast Maine. 2) Upper level low pressure keeps the chance of showers going into midweek, especially across Northern Maine. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread rain tonight into Monday will help ease ongoing drought conditions in some areas. Rain may be heavy at times tonight into Sunday, especially across Downeast Maine. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Lopres off of Cape Cod will move northeast tonight, passing just south of the Gulf of Maine. Latest CAMS and some global models suggesting that rain will slow down and shouldn't push onto the coast until closer to 21z this afternoon. Given the track of the low think the best chance for pops will be north and east of the low center overnight with the bulk of the rain occurring to the east of MDI tonight. PW values in far sern area rising to close to 99th percentile with amounts between 1.50-2.00 inches. Any rainfall will be helpful to ongoing drought conditions given that we will be in a cloudy cool pattern for the next couple days. This will allow for rainfall to get into the soils, unlikely to help streamflows which are significantly below normal. Weak lopres will still be back over the western Gulf of Maine and becoming absorbed by the occlusion around 12z. Although pwats remain high over srn and ern half of the area have reduced pops slightly in the afternoon with parts of the area lacking forcing. Given the 160- 180% of normal PWATs (95-99th percentile) showers may produce heavy rainfall at times. Showers will be more convective during the day so uncertain where the beneficial rainfall will occur. Then throughout Sunday night, the low becomes stationary over Quebec as it rotates the moisture through the state. By Monday, the low begins to gradually move north which will decrease rain chances throughout the day. However, best chance of showers and thunderstorms will be in the northern 1/2 of the CWA closer to the vertically stacked low in Quebec. KEY MESSAGE 2...Upper level low pressure keeps the chance of showers going into midweek, especially across Northern Maine. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure stalls over Canada, slowly meandering to the east next week. Looking at chances of rain showers in the north, on Tuesday and Wednesday. There is some instability during the afternoons, with some models hinting at 500-1,000 J/kg of CAPE, 7C/km low level lapse rates, and 30-40 kts of effective shear. PWAT values roughly 1.00-1.25", so rain showers expected to be mostly light, with higher totals possible in any convection. That being said, not anticipating severe weather. Temperatures drop Tuesday into the upper-60s to low-70s, and raise back to the 70s on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 00z...VFR for all but BHB where cigs drop to MVFR around 22z. E winds 5-10kts. Tonight...MVFR/IFR at northern Aroostook terminals. LIFR at HUL, BGR and BHB in rain and fog. ENE winds 5kts. Sunday...IFR in low cigs and showers throughout the day. E winds 5-10kts. Sunday night...IFR in showers and fog. ESE winds 5kts. Monday-Wednesday: MVFR or lower likely at northern terminals. MVFR possible at KBGR, with VFR likely at KBHB. S winds Monday, becoming SW Tuesday. LLWS possible Monday night. W-NW winds G15-20KT possible Wednesday. Wednesday night-Thursday: VFR. Light winds overnight, becoming S/SW at 5-10 kts. && .MARINE... Winds below 10kts through Sunday night with seas between2-4 feet through the period. Rain and patchy fog reduce visibilities at times. Slight chance of winds or seas reaching 25 kts/5 ft Monday- Tuesday. A chance for thunderstorms on Monday. Chance for fog late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Winds from the S on Monday, becoming SW on Tuesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ASB/21 AVIATION...ASB/21  907 FXUS61 KGYX 221822 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 222 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes since the previous forecast cycle. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Unsettled weather is expected through Sunday night, but no widespread significant rainfall amounts are anticipated. 2. Isolated rain chances Monday and Tuesday under a lingering upper level low. Tranquil conditions by midweek, and loose signals for increasing humidity late week ahead of another system. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Mainly cloudy skies will persist through the remainder of today with an increasing chance for a few scattered showers, especially across western ME. Temperatures will remain nearly steady into the lower to middle 70s in most locations. Latest forecast guidance and upstream observations continue to indicate that marine fog/stratus will push inland overnight, especially across western ME south of the foothills as well as the NH Seacoast. It will otherwise remain cloudy with a few scattered showers possible at times with overnight low temperatures into the 50s to near 60 degrees in most locations. Closed low pressure will trek across southern Quebec on Sunday, sending a series of fronts across New England. Our region will be within a weak warm sector with partial clearing allowing high temperatures to warm into the middle to upper 70s with dew points into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. A negatively tilted H5 trof axis will arrive during the afternoon into the early evening, acting as a catalyst for stronger flow aloft and upward vertical motion. Latest CAMs continue to indicate that MU/MLCAPE will increase into the 500-1000 J/KG range with 0-6km bulk shear of generally 35-40 kts. Cool temperatures aloft will support marginally conducive mid-lvl lapse rates, thus supporting the potential for a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms. The primary threat will be strong to locally damaging winds but hail cannot be ruled out within an stronger updrafts. The greatest threat window looks to be between 2-8PM with eastern portions of the CWA the least at play given SE sfc flow. Sunday night will feature a continued chance for a few widely scattered showers along with fog as overnight low temperatures fall to within a few degrees either side of 60 in most locations. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A closed upper low will continue to meander from southwest to northeast Quebec Monday through Tuesday night. This feature will lead to plenty of clouds to start the work week as we remain in persistent cyclonic flow aloft. While widespread significant rainfall is not expected, there should be some isolated to scattered showers (hit or miss) at times and a locally heavy downpour is possible. There may also be enough breaks in the clouds for at least some instability to develop Monday and Tuesday afternoons so a few thunderstorms are possible. Shear would be sufficient for a few stronger storms if updrafts can become strong enough. Gusty winds would be the primary threat. The cutoff low then kicks out in the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe as upper level ridging approaches from the west, promoting dry weather and warming temperatures. The ridge then passes overhead quickly and the next system approaches late in the work week and possibly into the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through tonight: Marine FG/stratus will move inland tonight, bringing IFR-LIFR restrictions to most TAF sites. Valley FG is also likely. Scattered SHRA are possible. Winds will be light out of the ENE. Outlook: Sunday: Fog scatters out as rain showers lift across the area. Some improvement to MVFR and VFR is possible by evening. TSRA is possible between 2-8PM, mainly across inland terminals and any storms will be capable of locally strong winds and possible GR. Sunday night: Continued improvement in conditions, except local LIFR in valley fog. Monday: Local MVFR or lower possible in showers. Monday night: VFR conditions expected. Tuesday: Local MVFR or lower possible in showers. Tuesday night and Wednesday: VFR conditions expected. Thursday: Mainly VFR but local MVFR or lower in showers late in the day. && .MARINE... Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA thresholds thru the period. Will have to watch the overnight period, when areas of fog and low stratus may develop ahead of an approaching warm front. Those foggy conditions are expected to lift out by late Sun. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tubbs/Hargrove  951 FXUS62 KTAE 221822 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 222 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Daily chances of showers and storms continue each day. Rain chances are lowest on Sunday, then increase through the workweek. The strongest storms are expected to produce wind gusts of 40-60 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rain. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Scattered thunderstorms will develop through the rest of this afternoon, mainly along and southeast of a line from PAnama City to Tifton. This is where a weak surface trough is located, and this combined with the sea breeze will lead to slightly better coverage of showers and storms to the east. There's plenty of instability for the storms to work with this afternoon, but DCAPE is a mixed bag. It's lower ahead of the trough with a more moist atmosphere, and higher behind the trough where we're expecting lower coverage of storms. But, there is a rather tight gradient, so storms that form closest to the trough could have the better potential for strong wind gusts of 40-60 mph. Storms will wane after sunset. Some patchy fog is possible late tonight into early Sunday morning, mainly north of I-10. Then we await the arrival of a weak cold front sliding into our area on Sunday. Some drier air will make it into our northernmost areas tomorrow afternoon, keeping the better rain chances near the sea breeze or right along the front. There is some discrepancy in the hi- res guidance regarding coverage of storms during the afternoon hours. If storms can get going tomorrow afternoon, there will be good instability and some mid-level dry air to work with for some strong wind gusts in the strongest storms. Otherwise, it will be quite hot with many areas in the mid to upper 90s. But, the slightly lower humidity will keep our heat indices mostly in the 100-107 range, though a few places could peak around 108-110. Coverage of these higher heat indices is not enough to issue a Heat Advisory, however. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Heading into the upcoming workweek, we'll have a large ridge over the southwest US with weak disturbances riding up and around the ridge. That unfortunately places us in the northwest flow regime aloft, which can lead to round of more organized showers and storms in the form of MCSs. Thus, rain chances will increase next week to near or above seasonal normals, but exact timing of these disturbances is hard to pin down. If organized MCSs develop, then chances for strong to potentially severe storms would increase. Summertime heat and humidity will continue to roll along otherwise with highs in the lower half of the 90s and heat index values of 100- 107 each day. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 121 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Afternoon thunderstorms activity most likely to impact KTLH and KVLD through early evening. Have remove prob30 from KDHN and KECP with lower risk at those terminals attm. Have left in some limited BR at northern terminals overnight given some slightly dryer air filtering in just above the surface. && .MARINE... Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Gentle to occasionally moderate southwesterly flow will continue over the waters for the next several days. Scattered showers and storms are possible each day, mainly in the overnight and morning hours, decreasing in the afternoon. The main exception will be for any clusters of storms that move off the coast next week during the late afternoon or evening hours. Seas will remain around 1 to 2 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Generally light west to southwest transport winds will continue through the next several days. Dispersions will remain good overall each afternoon, though pockets of high dispersions are possible near the I-75 corridor Monday into Tuesday as mixing heights increase. Isolated storms are possible Sunday with increasing coverage of storms again Monday and Tuesday. Gusty, erratic winds and dangerous lightning strikes will be possible. Some drier air moves into the area Sunday before moistening back up again Monday into Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall . If the storms are slow-moving, they could produce several inches of rain in a short period of time. This would lead to some nuisance to isolated flash flood concerns, particularly is low-lying or poor drainage areas. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 74 98 75 97 / 10 20 10 60 Panama City 78 94 79 92 / 0 30 20 40 Dothan 73 98 74 95 / 0 20 10 50 Albany 72 98 73 96 / 0 10 10 40 Valdosta 72 97 73 96 / 20 20 10 20 Cross City 74 93 74 95 / 20 30 20 30 Apalachicola 78 92 79 91 / 10 20 0 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Young LONG TERM....Young AVIATION...Camp MARINE...Young FIRE WEATHER...Young HYDROLOGY...Young  183 FXAK67 PAJK 221826 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 1026 AM AKDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .UPDATE...Update to include 18z TAF Issuance and added Wind Advisory to Skagway. && .AVIATION.../Through 18z Sunday/...Vastly different conditions are ongoing across the panhandle this morning, with a front continuing southeastward out of the panhandle, a break behind, and another front moving in through early Sunday morning. The front moving out of the southern panhandle is bringing MVFR to IFR conditions with periods of light to moderate rainfall as it passes through. Behind this front, much of the central and interior panhandle is seeing low, broken CIGs jumping between VFR and MVFR with the possibility of scattered showers. Conditions are expected to improve to a more solid VFR through midday before the next front moves in around 12z Sunday. The next front is expected to bring conditions back down to MVFR to IFR, with periods of heavy rain possible. Skagway winds are gusting over 30 kts and will persist through the daytime hours. Marines and Wind Advisory Update: Primary threat for winds Saturday is northern Lynn Canal, where strong breezes (22 to 27 knots) will likely persist through the afternoon, diminishing Saturday evening. A Wind Advisory was issued for Skagway through 7pm Saturday. Mariners moving around Icy Strait should be aware of southwest winds of 15 knots near Point Carolus into Cross Sound, with winds diminishing through Saturday afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 401 AM AKDT Sat Aug 22 2026... SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - An active weather pattern will continue into Monday with mostly cloudy skies and periods of rain, which may become locally heavy across the southern panhandle. - Winds are likely to be variable with frontal passages, and at times gusty. SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday Night/...Following steady rains overnight and some that was locally heavy, especially between Skagway and Juneau, we are currently seeing some improvement in conditions. The heaviest precipitation is now advancing eastward with mainly light rainfall in its wake as weak high pressure attempts to move toward the panhandle. This will bring a brief respite through much of the day, but cloudiness and occasional light rain will prevail, particularly with the low level flow remaining south-southwesterly and at least one additional weak shortwave traversing the area. By tonight, the next low pressure system and associated front will enter the central Gulf and bring a return of more persistent rainfall. Rain will first reach the northeast Gulf Coast by midnight and then overtake the northern/central panhandle during Sunday. The axis of heavier precipitation may push into the southern panhandle by Sunday evening and could become enhanced in that area as another wave of low pressure affects the same region Sunday night into early Monday. Rainfall amounts in these areas may exceed 2 inches, with lighter amounts farther north. The NBM even suggests amounts over 3 inches from Ketchikan eastward for the 24-hr period ending 18Z Monday. However, we are not expecting significant or widespread hydrological concerns at this time given the relatively dry antecedent conditions, especially south of Frederick Sound, but this will be monitored closely. For more on the Monday forecast and beyond, please see the long-term discussion below. High temperatures will generally be a bit cooler today, ranging from the mid 50s along the northeast Gulf, while possibly still reaching the upper 60s in the extreme south. For Sunday, we expect the cooling trend to continue given rainfall and lower cloudiness. LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/...The low pressure system bringing widespread rainfall to the panhandle Sunday will continue to shift southeastward through Monday, moving out of the northern panhandle and lingering over the southern and parts of the central panhandle through the day. The models have come more in line on the low positioning, indicating that the southern panhandle will see the highest rainfall amounts with this system. As the low moves in from the west, the northern panhandle should see the front move in first before rainfall quickly spreads to the rest of the panhandle through Sunday morning. Most of this rain will fall overnight into early Monday morning, tapering off from northwest to southeast through Monday evening. Expecting around an inch and a half of rainfall for parts of the southern panhandle in 24 hours from early Monday morning through early Tuesday morning. Light winds are expected for a majority of the panhandle behind the front, though sea breezes are expected to increase through some of the inner channels Tuesday afternoon, particularly in Lynn Canal. Potential for a break continues to increase for the early week as the low dips south, though keeping an eye on upper level easterly flow that may allow for showers in BC to traverse into the panhandle. The northern and central panhandle have potential to see some sun behind this front on Monday, with the southern panhandle joining in by Tuesday. The slight period of ridging that develops over the eastern gulf should allow winds in the inner channels to switch to a more offshore direction overnight before the weather becomes more active through the second half of the week. With the potential for clearing, sea breezes should increase through midday and turn winds back onshore for a period. Daytime high temperatures will also increase above normal for days that see this clearing, allowing for highs reaching the high 60s to low 70s across the panhandle Tuesday. The next system is expected to reach the panhandle through Wednesday. NBM PoP is getting washed out through the end of the week, so slightly increased confidence through the northern panhandle with the onset of the front. AVIATION...Through the night, a front has been moving south through the Alaska Panhandle. At the time of this writing, the front is currently just east of Juneau to Angoon line, and currently moving Southeastward. Flight conditions have been variable for the Northern Panhandle, but generally look to be improve to VFR on the backside of the front. As the front pushes southward, expect rain chances to generally increase, and flight conditions generally deteriorating until 00Z Sunday. Expect ceilings AoA 3500 feet by 00Z for the Southern Panhandle. Another low pressure system will approach the area, and lead to low VFR/MVFR ceilings by 12Z Sunday. MARINE... (Inner channels): A front is moving through the Inner Channels this morning with the strongest winds in Lynn Canal. Eldred Rock has observed sustained southerly winds around 25 kts. As the front continues to dissipate, these winds are expected to diminish through the day. Early Sunday, another frontal system will approach SE Alaska. By Monday, this system looks to move toward Prince of Wales Island. The increasing pressure gradient will increase the winds in the Southern Inner Channels, including Clarence Strait. Expecting south winds from Dixon Entrance into southern Clarence Strait up to 25 kts Monday morning. As the low weakens, the winds in the Southern inner channels are also expected to diminish into Tuesday. (Outside waters): A front is moving through SE Alaska as a low pressure system weakens and moves into Canada. Behind the front, there is onshore winds out of the west in the Gulf of Alaska. This system is expected to weaken before another low pressure system moves into the Gulf of Alaska Sunday morning. This system is expected to bring an increase in winds Sunday morning. Strongest winds are expected early Sunday morning on the SE side of the low pressure system. Winds in the eastern Gulf of Alaska are expected to be SW near 25 kts, but diminish Sunday afternoon with a decreasing pressure gradient force. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ318. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...ZTK SHORT TERM...MJB LONG TERM...ZTK AVIATION...Musall MARINE...Musall Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  313 FXUS62 KCHS 221827 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 227 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Locally heavy rainfall is possible today with showers and storms. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Locally heavy rainfall is possible today with showers and storms. A large mid level trough, centered over the Great Lakes, will dominate over the eastern CONUS today.. WPC surface analysis from 15Z shows a weak front draped across the SC Midlands. This front will be the main forcing behind showers and storms this afternoon as it slowly moves towards the SC Lowcountry and SE Georgia. While a strong storm cannot be ruled out, the main hazard this afternoon will be heavy rainfall as PWATs are analyzed around 1.9 to 2.0". The 12Z guidance depicts the bulk of the precipitation developing around 22/23Z this evening, generally along and east of I-95. The 12Z HREF shows probabilities of 1 inch or greater east of I-95 around 50-70%. Shower and storm activity is forecast to wind down by 9 PM. Sunday Onward: The aforementioned upper trough will finally move far enough east to usher in some drier air into the area by Sunday into Monday. With drier air in place and the surface boundary pushed offshore, rain chances should remain low through Monday. However, moisture should begin to recover starting Tuesday and into the middle of the week with a return to more typical summertime pattern setting up. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A TEMPO group has been introduced at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV to reflect the threat for TSRA this afternoon. Thereafter, prevailing VFR through the remainder of the 18Z TAFs. Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. && .MARINE... Today through Thursday: Marine conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period. A fairly typical summertime pattern on tap. Generally expect south to southwest winds averaging in the 10-15 knot range with gusts to 20 kt at times and seas 2 to 3 feet. Any showers or thunderstorms that move over the waters have the potential to bring higher wind gusts and frequent lightning. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: August 24: KCHS: 76/2010 KCXM: 80/1975 August 25: KCHS: 77/1982 August 27: KCHS: 78/2011 August 28: KCHS: 77/2020 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$  175 FXUS63 KDDC 221826 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 126 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Tonight and again on Sunday night. Severe weather currently is not anticipated but a few of the stronger storms on Sunday may produce wind gusts in excess of 50 mph across extreme southwest Kansas. - A warming trend is expected by Monday with highs across south central and portions of southwest Kansas ranging from 100 to near 103 on Monday. - Improving chance for precipitation will develop towards mid week with locally heavy rainfall possible from thunderstorms Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Earlier this morning, a 500mb high was centered over the Central Rockies with a northwest flow present across western Kansas. Embedded in this northwest flow there was an upper level trough crossing Kansas with scattered early morning convection occurring ahead of this upper level system and along/east of a 12-14C 700mb temperature gradient. At the surface a stationary front extended from eastern Colorado into the Texas Panhandle. An area of high pressure at the surface was located over the northern Plains. Models today remain in good agreement with the surface high building into the Mid Mississippi Valley over the next 24 to 36 hours allowing some cooler, more seasonal air, trying to filter into areas of central Kansas through early next week. The surface boundary will remain nearly stationary across eastern Colorado and the Panhandle of Texas. Upslope flow north of this boundary and improving instability late day will result in an opportunity for late day/evening convection over eastern Colorado as a upper level trough crosses the Rockies and moves out into the West Central High Plains. While these storms may initially be capable of producing strong damaging winds gusts...these storms are expected to weaken as they move into western Kansas after sunset. Based on the latest 400mb PVU timing and location of the mid level baroclinic zone tonight it appears that this Colorado convection should move into west central Kansas well after sunset and cross west central and north central Kansas between midnight and daybreak on Sunday. These storms overnight are not expected. Little change in the overall weather pattern is expected on Sunday. On Sunday night western Kansas will still be on the northeast edge of the upper high as more subtle upper waves rotate around this upper high. Models continue to advertise that another upper wave will exit eastern Colorado and cross western Kansas. This once again will favor scattered overnight thunderstorm, especially along and just north of wherever our mid level baroclinic zone will be located. Currently based on the latest CAMS it appears that this baroclinic zone further south which would allow areas south of the Arkansas river to have the chance (20-40%) for this convection Sunday night. Once again gusty winds will be the main hazard from the stronger storms with the more favorable area for these stronger gusty winds being across extreme southwest Kansas (west of Highway 83). As for temperatures late this weekend and into early next week...850mb temperatures will warm by 1-3C and as a result the afternoon high temperatures are forecast to be around 100 degrees across much of southwest and south center Kansas, especially on Monday. Heat index values currently are forecast to remain below heat advisory criteria but it may be close for an hour or two near the Oklahoma border and east of Liberal. Hot August temperatures will be returning but heat advisory criteria is not expected. Temperatures further north on Sunday will be cooler than these triple digit temperaturesand this will be due to increased cloud cover and possible precipitation. Cloudy skies during the afternoon may end up keeping afternoon temperatures as much as 8 to 10F cooler compared to areas that do not have any cloud cover. At this time confidence is not high on where these cooler temperatures/thicker cloud cover will be located Sunday afternoon so will stay close to the NBM guidance at this time. Those with outdoor plans on Sunday across southwest Kansas should keep in mind. If you are in an area where the sun is out before noon then highs will be closer to 100. You should therefore practice heat safety. In contrast if you have more clouds then sun during the afternoon then the highs on sunday afternoon will be closer to the lower 90s. Currently the NBM keeps the skies cloudy and has a 70 to 75% chance that highs along the I-70 corridor will be greater less 95. On Tuesday we will be monitoring a more significant upper level trough crossing the Rocking moving out of the Rockies and into the Plains. As it moves out into the Plains there will be a cold front dropping south into western Kansas . This cold front will not only bring an end to the warming trend but also will bring improving chances for precipitation across all of southwest Kansas. Improving chances for precipitation combined with PWATs improving to greater than 85% that of normal for this time of year may also result in widespread accumulating rainfall from these storms. At this time it appears that our best opportunity for this accumulating rainfall will be Tuesday night with the ensemble clusters indicating anywhere between 30 and 50% chance for 24 hour rainfall totals ending at 7am Wednesday being >0.25". Latest NBM guidance was advertising 24hour rainfall totals ending Wednesday morning 0.25" at 40 to near 70%. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Gusty winds behind an outflow boundary from early morning convection resulted in northeast winds at near 20 knots gusting at time to 30 knots late this Saturday morning across southwest Kansas. These winds will decrease and return to the east southeast at 10 to 15knots by 21z this afternoon. These winds will continue through early tonight when outflow from another area of thunderstorms are expected to spread into southwest Kansas after midnight. This outflow will occur ahead of an area of weakening convection so the chance for thunderstorms at any of the four terminals is low (<20%). The exception will be Hays between 10z and 14z Sunday. As this outflow moves through late tonight the easterly winds will become northeast and increase to around 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots being possible for several hours. Clear skies will give way to increasing clouds at or above 1000ft AGL after 00z Sunday as afternoon Colorado convection moves towards western Kansas. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Burgert AVIATION...Burgert  258 FXUS63 KSGF 221827 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 127 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal risk for severe storms over southern portions of the area during the remainder of the afternoon/early evening. Isolated 1 inch hail and 60 mph winds are the greatest threats, however much of this activity should remain below severe limits. - Potential for locally heavy rainfall and flooding Sunday night into early Monday, though uncertainty remains. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Pretty strong northwesterly flow aloft, with an upper high over the Southwest/Southern Rockies and an upper trough over the eastern CONUS. An upper level disturbance continues to slide southeast through the area, which allowed for a cluster of storms to develop over parts of NE/KS earlier this morning. This cluster has since weakened and entered the forecast area, with mainly pesky showers/storms so far this morning/early afternoon. The 12Z sounding showed an impressive amount of MUCAPE (>4500 J/kg), with effective bulk shear >45kts, however many factors have limited storms from tapping into this. An outflow boundary continues to push south, with "cooler" temperatures in the 70s to 80s behind it, and temps in the 90s ahead of it (MO/AR border). Some pockets of clear skies are visible on satellite closer to the MO/AR border, which could lead to these pockets further destabilizing ahead of the showers/storms. If this were to happen, then intensification could occur south of Highway 60 over the next few hours, posing mainly an isolated damaging wind threat, and a secondary isolated hail risk. Latest CAMs however keep this activity weak in our area before intensifying south of the border in Arkansas. This is looking more likely, as cloud cover increases and the outflow boundary quickly advances south, hindering reintensification for our area. The Storm Prediction Center's latest outlook showcases this thinking, with a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk generally along/south of Highway 60, and the better severe risk (Slight risk) south of the forecast area beginning in Arkansas. Shower and storm chances should push out of the area this evening, with overnight lows in the 60s to low 70s tonight. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 On Sunday, the upper level ridge over the west and associated upper high slide slightly eastward, with the aforementioned upper trough continuing to pivot over the eastern CONUS keeping us in northwesterly flow aloft. During the day, conditions look mainly dry, with highs topping out in the 80s to even the low 90s for southeast KS and far southwest MO. Another upper level disturbance looks to slide southeast into the area again Sunday night, leading to additional chances (50-60%) for showers and storms. CAMs show two clusters of showers/storms developing: One pushing southeast from the Dakotas into northern MO, and a second developing over KS/OK pushing east. As these push through the area overnight and into Monday morning, they could pose a localized flooding threat, as some guidance suggests PWATS over 2.0". As the previous discussion mentioned, this would be 150-175% above normal. Current HREF 24-hr LPMMs show localized pockets of 1.5-2.5" of rainfall, with the majority of the area expected to remain below an inch. There's still much uncertainty regarding this activity, with several key mesoscale factors that need to come together to form any hydro concerns. With the area remaining in northwesterly flow throughout the week, we'll see periodic low-end chances (15-30%) for showers/storms. Daily highs should generally remain in the upper 80s to low 90s (northeast CWA) to the mid/upper 90s (southwest CWA). && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1147 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions expected through much of the period. Some showers and storms are currently visible on Radar pushing southeast, with a ~30% chance of affecting the terminals from the beginning of the period until approximately 00Z. Any stronger storm could temporarily lower ceilings and visibilities, however this is expected to be short-lived. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Melto LONG TERM...Melto AVIATION...Melto  272 FXUS65 KBOI 221827 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1227 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Weak Pacific cold front will bring isolated thunderstorms to the area Saturday afternoon and evening. - Gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph possible from thunderstorms. - Dry and slightly cooler conditions Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Monday Night/... Issued 415 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026 A cold front will slowly move across central OR today into southwest ID this evening. Showers and thunderstorms expected ahead of the cold front, mainly across southwest ID and far eastern OR. The best dynamics for thunderstorms today will be generally be east of a line from Baker City OR to Jordan Valley OR, with enough effective bulk shear for organized thunderstorm development. Shower and thunderstorm threat continues into the late evening into early Sunday morning before drier air moves in by late Sunday morning. Slightly cooler temperatures expected on Sunday with dry conditions. Isolated thunderstorms possible along the NV border south of Twin Falls Sunday afternoon. A weak shortwave embedded in the southwest flow aloft will bring increased clouds on Monday with slightly cooler temperatures. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will generally be confined to the higher terrain of southwest ID Monday afternoon. Gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph possible with thunderstorms each day. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/... Issued 415 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026 A trough off the Pac NW coast pushes the monsoon moisture east on Tuesday with drier air, breezy conditions and slightly cooler temperatures Tuesday through Friday. Temperatures will around 2-5 degrees above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /18Z Saturday through Sunday/... Issued 1227 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026 VFR. Scattered showers and Isolated thunderstorms early this afternoon. Increasing in coverage into this evening with isolated to scattered thunderstorms, mainly in SW-Idaho. Thunder capable of brief heavy rain, hail, and erratic outflows to 40-50 kt. BLDU possible with outflows. High density altitude this afternoon due to heat. Surface winds outside of storms: Variable 5-15 kt, except SW 10-20 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt in E-Oregon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S-SW 10-25 kt. KBOI...VFR. A 20% chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms capable of brief heavy rain, hail, and outflows to 40-50 kt. BLDU possible in outflows. High density altitude this afternoon due to heat. Surface winds: W-NW 6-12 kt this afternoon, becoming SE 5-15 kt after Sun/00z. Sunday Outlook...Generally VFR. Areas of wildfire smoke. Shower and thunderstorm activity in southwest/central Idaho diminishing early Sunday AM. Isolated storms returning near KTWF in the afternoon. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-15 kt with afternoon gusts 15-25 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for IDZ401>403-421- 424-426. OR... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ670>672. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....NF SHORT TERM...KA LONG TERM....KA  457 FXUS61 KCLE 221829 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 229 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Flood Watch has been issued for along and east of I-77 through 10 PM this evening. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch as been issued for most of the forecast area through 9 PM this evening. Main hazards for the severe thunderstorm watch are damaging winds and large hail. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected this afternoon and evening. Some storms may turn severe with damaging winds and large hail the main hazards. Flash flooding is possible along and east of I-77. 2) Below average temperatures arrive to end the weekend and start the upcoming week. Periodic lake-enhanced rain showers will primarily impact portions of Northeast OH and Northwest PA late tonight through at least Monday night, with a few showers or storms elsewhere Sunday afternoon/evening. 3) A period of dry and quiet weather is expected the first half of the week. Scattered showers thunderstorms return Wednesday night into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The combination of a low-level trough axis and modest warm air/ moisture advection has been fueling some thunderstorms early this morning, primarily over Lake Erie but extending southwest into parts of North Central OH as of 3 AM. While this activity is generally favored to lift east-northeast and diminish this morning, it may still be on the scope as the rest of the world awakens, particularly over and close to Lake Erie. While it may not be an entirely dry morning given this activity, greater shower and storm potential, including a risk for some strong to severe storms, awaits until the afternoon and evening hours. Aloft, a shortwave will dig into the central Great Lakes today into tonight while taking on a neutral to slightly negative tilt. This will encourage a weak surface low to slowly deepen while drifting out of northern Michigan and into southern Ontario late today and tonight. A pre-frontal trough is still expected to cross the area this afternoon and early evening from west to east, with a strong cold front arriving in Northwest OH late this afternoon and surging southeast across the area through this evening. Large scale forcing for ascent will maximize late this afternoon and evening as a vort max rounds the base of the deepening shortwave and rotates into the northern OH/Lake Erie vicinity, though more modest forcing is evident even earlier in the day. Showers/storms are expected to begin developing during the midday or early afternoon timeframe, with activity peaking in coverage, intensity, and organization during the late afternoon and early evening. Showers/storms are expected to exit southeast this evening with the cold front, with activity quickly transitioning to lake-enhanced showers later tonight. Activity will likely blossom along both the pre-frontal trough and a lake breeze near the northeastern shoreline near and east of the I-77 corridor this afternoon, and across Northwest OH along the cold front itself. Given the increasing forcing into the late afternoon/evening and multiple triggers for convection, it's likely that eastern portions of our area see the most widespread convection and greatest overall rain amounts, with some areas likely seeing multiple rounds in quick succession. With that said, nearly all CAMs develop fairly numerous storms along the cold front as it pushes across our western counties, so odds are that a large majority of the area will see a shower or storm this afternoon/evening on the balance. There is some potential for both severe weather and locally heavy rain with storms this afternoon/evening, though the overall setup will not favor higher end convective hazards. Clouds and perhaps some ongoing shower/thunder activity will slow heating today, though weak to moderate, uncapped instability (1000-2000 J/KG of MLCAPE) is expected to develop through the afternoon as low-level lapse rates steepen to around 8C/km. Some pockets of dry air aloft will contribute to modest DCAPE values in the 500-800 J/KG range. These marginal thermodynamics, coupled with increasing forcing and modest deep- layer shear values of 20-30kt, can support loosely organized convection. The primary severe threat today will be locally damaging winds, most likely with any small lines or clusters that evolve but also possible with any more intense cells. Isolated large hail is also possible, mainly with any updrafts that exhibit transient rotation which is most likely within storms along/east of the pre-frontal trough where surface flow will be more backed. While the overall lower-end environment and potential for storms to quickly get "messy" and work over the atmosphere puts a lid on severe potential today, most CAMs have quite a bit of convection across our area with some organization depicted, giving the SPC confidence to introduce a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather for much of the area east of the I-75 corridor (and a Marginal/level 1 of 5 for I-75). In terms of heavy rain potential, storm motions from the west- southwest will be fairly parallel to the incoming cold front, so the potential for multiple rounds and/or transient training does exist. Precipitable water values and warm cloud depths are not especially concerning for efficient rain-rates, though we will need to monitor portions of Northeast OH/Northwest PA for repeated storms or training convection that can still drop localized 2-3" rain amounts. Otherwise, area-average QPF will generally be in the 0.25-1.00" range through this evening, least across Northwest OH and greatest across Northeast OH/Northwest PA. The WPC has introduced a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall/localized flash flooding across Northeast OH and Northwest PA in their latest excessive rainfall outlook. KEY MESSAGE 2... After pulling a cold front across the area this evening, the surface low and upper trough across the central/eastern Great Lakes will continue to deepen through Sunday while beginning to stack, cut-off, and slow. The system will then start to slowly fill/weaken Sunday night and Monday while drifting to the east- northeast across southeastern Canada and New England. The seasonably chilly airmass pulled in behind the cold front and lingering moist cyclonic flow behind the stacking surface low/ upper trough will give us an early taste of fall to end the weekend and start the week...including some lake-enhanced rain. 850mb temperatures will bottom out at 6-9C Sunday night into early Monday, with 700mb temperatures dipping a bit below 0C as 500mb temperatures fall to around -20C. Most of the area will dry out late this evening into the overnight as the cold front exits, though as cooler west- northwest flow aligns over the ~25C lake waters some lake- enhanced showers will begin developing and moving into Northeast OH/Northwest PA. A vort max and low-level trough axis will cross the region very late tonight into early Sunday, likely causing activity to peak in organization. While some lake effect showers will continue on Sunday across Northeast OH/Northwest PA, the activity will likely lose organization and intensity for several hours after the morning trough passage. Another potent vort max and low-level trough axis will drop in from the northwest late Sunday afternoon and evening, bringing another uptick in lake-enhanced shower activity over and east-southeast of Lake Erie from as far west as the Islands and Sandusky points east. There will also be an uptick in showers across the rest of the area with the trough passage late Sunday afternoon and evening. Chilly, cyclonic west-northwest flow continues through at least Monday night or early Tuesday and some lake effect/ enhanced shower activity remains likely. However, there will likely be a trend for activity to become less intense/organized later Sunday night and beyond as high pressure builds in. A possible exception is Monday night when another vort max and trough passage is hinted at. That could cause one last uptick in the lake-driven showers, especially farther east. In terms of any hazards, instability will be deep enough over the lake for some thunder/lightning potential with the lake- enhanced activity...especially through the first half of Sunday night. The overall set-up with a somewhat shorter west-northwest fetch and some wind shifts through the event isn't overly favorable for intense, banded rainfall with a flash flood risk across the snowbelt. However, rain amounts will gradually add up (especially through Sunday evening) where lake-enhanced showers are most frequent and the potential for localized flooding will need to be kept in mind, especially if parts of Northeast OH or Northwest PA see locally heavy rain today. The heaviest rain amounts will likely occur slightly inland from the lakeshore form the Cleveland area points east-northeast. Otherwise, with cold air aloft and stronger winds towards and above 500mb, any thunderstorms with the trough passage late Sunday afternoon/ evening may produce gusty winds and/or small hail...especially over and downwind of Lake Erie. KEY MESSAGE 3... Locations outside of any lake enhanced rain showers are expected to dry out Sunday night and remain dry into the first half of the week. Lake enhanced rain will gradually dwindle starting late Sunday night and eventually end by Tuesday as discussed above. Overall, this will lend to a tranquil first half of the week across much of the area. Temperatures will slowly rebound towards normal starting on Tuesday. Another trough is expected to dig into the Great Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday. This will likely be accompanied by another surface low and its associated fronts. Chances for showers and some storms may arrive as early as Wednesday afternoon/evening, but are most favored on Thursday with this system. && .AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/... Showers and thunderstorms are expected areawide today, especially along and east of I-77 where multiple rounds of storms are likely this afternoon and evening. IFR and lower conditions with reduced visibilities are likely with any thunderstorm today. SPC has a slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for this afternoon and evening. Strong to damaging wind gusts up to 50 knots are possible within the strongest storms, along with hail up to 1 inch in diameter. These hazards are likely to be isolated in nature and there is a low probability of impact to any terminal directly. Scattered rain showers and MVFR ceilings may linger across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania tonight, becoming more reserved to Northwest Pennsylvania tomorrow. Outlook...Non-VFR conditions will be likely Sunday through Monday morning with lake enhanced rain showers and isolated thunder possible for areas downwind of Lake Erie in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. && .MARINE... Marine weather conditions on Lake Erie will become rough and not ideal later tonight and continuing through late Monday. There is a round of strong storms over the central basin of Lake Erie this morning that will track eastward through Sunrise. Gusty winds up to 35 knots and isolated waterspouts could be possible with these early morning storms over the lake. A cold front will approach Lake Erie from the west late this afternoon and move across later this evening. Winds ahead of the cold front will be from the south to southwest 10 to 15 knots today and waves of 1 to 2 feet. Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible again this afternoon and evening with the frontal passage. Winds will shift around from the west to northwest tonight 15 to 20 knots and continue Sunday through Monday. Waves will increase 3 to 7 feet later tonight and those rough conditions will likely continue Sunday through Monday. Waterspouts will be very possible on Lake Erie starting tonight and lingering through Monday. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazard Statements for rip currents have been issued late tonight through at least Monday morning. These headlines will more than likely need to be extended later into Monday with future updates. High pressure will slowly build in Monday into Tuesday with nicer lake weather conditions returning by Tuesday. By Tuesday, winds will be westerly to southwesterly 5 to 15 knots and waves decreasing to 1 to 2 feet. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement from midnight EDT tonight through Monday morning for OHZ009>012-089. Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for OHZ011>014- 021>023-032-033-089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement from midnight EDT tonight through Monday morning for PAZ001. Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001>003. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Monday for LEZ144>149. && $$ DISCUSSION...Saunders/Sullivan AVIATION...Kahn/Saunders MARINE...77  351 FXUS62 KILM 221827 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 227 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant forecast changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and storms capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding through this evening. 2) Strong southerly winds and hazardous marine conditions expected to develop Sunday into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and storms capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding through this evening. A weak meso-low along a stalled frontal zone and attendant MCV responsible for a cluster of heavy rain showers that produced 1 to 2 inches of rain across portions of Brunswick, New Hanover and Pender counties earlier this morning has moved north and east of the area. However, daytime heating and moderate destabilization within the moist airmass, combined with weak synoptic height falls associated with the upper trough building into the region and additional upper impulses traversing the region, should support the re-development of scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible near the immediate coast and offshore tonight as impulses aloft interact with instability over the very warm ocean. Locally heavy rain and isolated flash flooding will remain possible through this evening, with HREF and REFS highlighting coastal counties/zones as having the greatest potential for localized 2-4" rainfall totals. Modest lapse rates and shear should limit the overall severe threat, though an isolated wet microburst cannot be ruled out. KEY MESSAGE 2... A reprieve from the extreme heat with shower and storm chances returning mid to late next week. An upper air pattern featuring a strong upper-high anchored over the Southwest and mean troughing over the east-central U.S. will prevail through the period. This pattern will will bring a welcomed reprieve from the recent extreme heat, with temperatures returning more to seasonable levels along with and lower BL dewpoints and humidity. Noticeably drier air and lower PWATs, potentially falling into the lowest 2 to 10 percentile of climatology will advect into the area Sunday. Despite a lingering weak boundary and weak disturbances swinging through the area, the dry air should limit rain chances to mainly widely scattered showers and storms, focused near the immediate coast Sunday and Monday. Moisture and instability will gradually return to more typical levels Tuesday onward, yielding chances of mainly diurnal showers and storms through the remainder of the period. Storm coverage could increase to to likely or numerous levels Friday and Saturday as the next cold front approaches the area. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Lingering sub-VFR ceilings should lift to VFR between 18 to 20z. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected to re-develop across the area this afternoon and into the evening, with greatest coverage expected along the coastal terminals. Showers and storms will remain possible near the immediate coast and offshore tonight as impulses aloft continue to interact with instability over the very warm ocean. The main aviation concern with this package is the potential for areas of fog and stratus during the predawn hours Sunday morning. Latest hi-res guidance suggests inland TAF sites (KFLO and KLBT) have the greatest potential for IFR to MVFR restrictions between 09z to 12z Sunday. Any sub-VFR restrictions that develop should lift/improve rapidly between 12 to 14z with isolated to scattered convection expected Sunday afternoon and evening, mainly along the immediate coast. A weak surface boundary bisecting the area should result in light winds through the period, with inland TAF sites becoming predominately west-northwesterly Sunday. Extended Forecast... Rain chances will be relatively low Monday, followed by a return of scattered diurnal showers and storms Tuesday through Thursday as humidity and moisture increases. Periods of early morning fog and low stratus will also be possible. && .MARINE... Today through Thursday...Marine conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period. Expect generally south to southwest winds to prevail through the period as a weak front stalls near the coast. Winds are expected to peak around 15-20 kts over Saturday night and wave heights stay around 3 ft or less within 20 nmi and up to 4 ft in the 20-60 nmi zones, highest this weekend. The biggest marine impact will likely be from scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the waters through the weekend as a front stalls near the coast. There will likely be several rounds of storms, accompanied by reduced visibility and possible gusty winds. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM/CBL KEY MESSAGES...ABW/CBL DISCUSSION...CBL AVIATION...LEW/CBL MARINE...ABW/CBL  481 FXUS62 KTBW 221829 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 229 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid conditions continue. - Onshore flow will lead to scattered showers and storms over the Gulf Sunday morning that move inland during the afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION (including modified previous)... Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A few showers and storms continue over the Gulf this afternoon, but most other convection is confined to the Nature Coast region and the interior and this general trend is expected through the rest of the afternoon and evening. The same pattern persists into Sunday, with the only caveat being a little extra moisture thanks to a boundary that will drift over north Florida. The boundary will enhance shower and storm activity over the NE Gulf with some of the showers and storms moving onshore over the nature coast. More typical afternoon showers along the interior will also be possible SUnday afternoon as the sea breeze pushes inland. Conditions will continue to be hot, though below heat advisory levels. A slight change in the pattern will arrive early next week with the flow transitioning more southeast. Dry air aloft will continue to keep rain chances on the low side Monday and Tuesday. Moisture begins to rebound Wednesday increasing rain chances through the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected. Most storm activity will be east of the terminals through the rest of the afternoon and evening, though it should be noted that there are a few showers over the Gulf near the Tampa Bay region and these could briefly be near those sites, though impacts should remain low. A similiar pattern is forecast for tomorrow with rain chances in the morning near the coast. && .MARINE... Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 West to southwest winds will remain over the waters for the next couple of days, with no headlines expected. Scattered showers and storms are forecast each day, mainly during the overnight and morning hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 80 90 78 92 / 20 50 10 20 FMY 79 94 78 95 / 0 20 10 30 GIF 75 95 74 96 / 10 30 10 20 SRQ 78 91 77 92 / 10 30 10 20 BKV 74 91 73 94 / 20 60 10 30 SPG 80 89 79 91 / 20 40 10 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$  576 FXUS62 KFFC 221830 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 230 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - A surface boundary will spark additional showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across portions of south-central Georgia. - Drier conditions on Sunday will be followed by a return to low daily rain chances for most from Tuesday onward. - Seasonal, less oppressive heat returns to North Georgia today and areawide by Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 An upper level longwave trough is extending from the central Great Lakes towards the south Georgia coast. As the axis of this trough continues to dig southeastward towards the Atlantic Coast, northwesterly upper flow behind the trough is progressively building over the forecast area. The movement of this trough is also advancing a surface frontal boundary further to the southeast. Dewpoints in areas behind the front are in the low to mid 60s while dewpoints ahead of the front are in the low to mid 70s. With temperatures rising into the low 90s this afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will be possible in east-central Georgia where more moist air remains ahead of the front. This evening, a weak wave will traverse the northwesterly flow aloft, advancing a secondary cold front towards far north Georgia. For the most part, precipitation associated with this front should remain north and west of the forecast area, though isolated showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in the far northern tier from sunset through midnight. Largely benign weather conditions are expected on Sunday. The morning will begin with low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s in north Georgia and low 70s in central Georgia. Patchy fog will be possible in the far northern tier in the early morning, dissipating shortly after sunrise. Aside from highs in the 80s in the far northeastern mountains, highs will be in the low 90s in north Georgia and mid 90s in central Georgia. Drier air will keep Heat Advisory criteria from being reached. A few isolated diurnally driven storms will be possible in the southern portion of our area during the peak heating hours, largely along and south of a line from Columbus to Macon. && .LONG TERM... (Monday morning through next Friday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Generally quiet weather is expected for the first half of the long term with a dry airmass in place. We'll also get a break from thunderstorms during the afternoon as well until Wednesday when winds become more southerly and we start to pull moisture back in from the Gulf. After Wednesday, a trough in the upper level flow will bring back the chances for afternoon thunderstorms. The most potent upper level dynamics will remain north of us, as the center of the low will remain in the Great Lakes region. Given slowly increasing temperatures however, we won't lack instability during the afternoon. This pattern will remain in place through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 128 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 MVFR ceilings remain in place across portions of northeast GA, including at AHN. These ceilings will scatter out by 19-20Z, giving way to VFR conditions across the area. Isolated TSRA will be possible in east-central GA this afternoon, but chances are too low to warrant mention at CSG/MCN at this time. A disturbance to the north could also bring isolated TSRA to the far northern tier tonight, though they are expected to remain north of ATL. Winds will be NW at 5-9 kts, diminishing to 5 kts or less overnight. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High confidence on all elements. King && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 69 92 65 91 / 10 0 0 10 Atlanta 72 92 70 91 / 0 10 10 10 Blairsville 63 84 60 84 / 20 0 0 0 Cartersville 69 91 65 90 / 20 0 10 10 Columbus 72 95 72 92 / 0 20 10 20 Gainesville 69 90 65 89 / 20 0 0 0 Macon 71 95 70 93 / 0 20 10 10 Rome 69 91 65 90 / 20 0 0 10 Peachtree City 69 92 67 91 / 0 10 10 20 Vidalia 73 96 72 95 / 20 10 30 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...King LONG TERM....Vaughn AVIATION...King  596 FXUS63 KMQT 221830 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 230 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Spotty showers and storms continue across the central and eastern UP this afternoon. Light rainfall totals mainly less than a tenth of an inch are expected, with higher totals possible where heavier downpours or multiple rounds of storms occur. - Seasonable temperatures are expected through next week with the exception of slightly below normal temperatures Sunday and Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Afternoon water vapor imagery reveals quite nicely the midlevel trough dropping into the Great Lakes, with a surface low centered over Lake Huron. Steepening lapse rates courtesy of the resulting CAA into the region is aiding in the development of scattered convection over the central UP, with some additional spotty showers in the eastern UP. Day Cloud RGB shows plenty of glaciation over the south-central UP, and indeed some stray flashes have been observed already. That said, with little by way of shear, storms are coming up just enough to get a couple strikes, then falling back down again. With freezing levels at around 10kft and a -20C at around 20kft, an ambitious taller cell could perhaps make a run for some small hail. Otherwise, strong storms are not expected. Meanwhile, with a tight pressure gradient over the region as ridging expands eastward from the Northern Plains as well as decent mixing into the core of 20-30kt winds aloft, winds are turning becoming elevated this afternoon. NW wind gusts up to 20mph are becoming common, but higher gusts to 30mph will not be out of the question by late afternoon in the eastern UP. Temperatures peak cooler than in previous days, only in the upper 60s to lower 70s for most and possibly the mid 70s in the south-central. Precipitation tapers off this evening, followed by mostly clear skies overnight. Temperatures bottom out in the lower to mid 40s inland, and the lower 50s near the lakeshores. Still, with note a potential for some of our typically cooler spots to slip into the upper 30s, a la the NBM 10th percentile. By Sunday morning, much of the hi-res guidance favors some spotty shower activity over the north-central UP, perhaps due to cool upsloping flow. Breezy conditions continue for Sunday with NW wind gusts up to 20-30mph, while temperatures come in a couple degrees cooler; expect highs in the mid to upper 60s for most. Some interior spots likely will dip back into the upper 30s Sunday night under clear skies. High pressure moving in from the west keeps weather dry through Monday, likely through most of Tuesday as well before the next mid level trough moves through the region midweek. This brings back shower and storm chances for Tuesday night and Wednesday, then dry weather is favored the rest of the work week. Expect more summer- like temperatures to return this week, with highs ranging in the 70s to near 80 Monday onwards and lows generally in the 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 211 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Largely VFR conditions are expected through the period, with exceptions for ongoing, off-and-on MVFR ceilings at IWD for the next few hours, as well as potential (30%) MVFR ceilings at SAW during the early morning hours due to 20-40% chances of precipitation. Due to a moist atmosphere and diminishing overnight winds, fog may materialize at IWD during the early morning hours, but given the low (15%) chance of MVFR ceilings and very low (<10%) chance of LIFR ceilings, this was not included in the TAF at this time. Winds should remain gusty at CMX overnight, with sustained winds diminishing to just below 10 knots overnight before building back above 10 knots by daybreak. CMX, too, has low (roughly 15%) yet nonzero probabilities of MVFR ceilings during the early morning hours into the morning. For SAW, radar currently shows isolated rain clouds forming in its vicinity before tracking SE away from the TAF site and growing into thunderstorms once further away; thus, the TAF includes only VCSH continuing through the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Lake Superior - NW winds are on the increase this afternoon, already gusting to around 20-25kts over the eastern half of the lake so far. Higher gusts up to 25-30kts become more common into the late afternoon. Gusts approach 20 kts over the west. As winds become more northerly tonight, central lake superior winds increase to 15-25 kts; the stronger winds to 30 kts over the east persist. This holds into Sunday morning before winds gradually simmer down from west to east into Sunday night. This builds significant waves of 3-7 ft over the southeastern waters this weekend. Probabilities for gales to 35 kts are only between 15-30%, highest south of Stannard Rock and along the Marquette/Alger County shores Sunday afternoon. Wind gusts to 20kts linger over the eastern half of the lake Monday, then winds stay below 20kts Tuesday before the next system brings back winds up to 20-25 kts Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Northern Bay of Green Bay and northern Lake Michigan - NW wind gusts to 20-25kts become common this afternoon, persisting through Sunday. Winds fall back below 20 kts Sunday night, remaining below 20 kts through much of next week. Scattered showers and storms continue the rest of this afternoon, tapering off this evening. Dry weather then persists until midweek next week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ005-006. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LC AVIATION...RE/GS MARINE...LC  848 FXUS64 KAMA 221832 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 132 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 115 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Summer heat wave continues with impactful temperatures near or above 100 degrees through at least early next week. - Low chance (15-30%) for scattered storms capable of damaging wind gusts across the southern Texas Panhandle this afternoon. - Potential pattern change could provide slightly cooler temperatures and increased rain opportunities next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 115 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The weekend forecast remains focused on continued heat, as well another outflow boundary that could spark spotty thunderstorms this afternoon-evening. High temperatures are expected to stay roasting in the 99-109 range for a majority of the Panhandles this weekend, although today's boundary and cloud cover may keep temps a few degrees cooler across the north. Shower and storm chances return to the northern Panhandles tomorrow evening, but breezier winds will leave elevated fire weather conditions for a majority of the forecast area. Morning satellite and surface observations show a remnant outflow boundary from overnight convection currently progressing over the northern and central Panhandles, continuing to push south. Hi-res CAM trends stall this boundary along and south of the I-40 corridor through the day, serving to initiate scattered storms along and south of it. Much like the past couple of days, this activity would be spotty in nature, but new convective outflow boundaries will initiate random storm development through the evening (20% POPs along and south of I-40). Given forecast DCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg, downburst severe wind gusts would be the primary hazard with this activity. PWATs >1.00" are present as well today, so localized heavy downpours are also feasible for those lucky enough to receive it. Unfortunately, there is still very much the potential for this boundary to advance well south of I-40 into Lubbock's forecast area, which would keep a vast majority of the Panhandles dry. Many CAMs show the boundary curling back to the north over the central TX Panhandle though, which could keep some hopes for rain alive even if a majority of the boundary does stall further south. Sunday's storm chances primarily rely on a shortwave disturbance to impinge upon the nearly 600 dam H500 ridge of high pressure placed firmly atop the region. As we suffer yet another day of scorching heat, breezy southwest winds of 10-20 mph will keep much of the south and central CWA dry. In the mid-levels, a swath of better 700mb theta-e is forecast to be in place atop the northern Panhandles when a shortwave arrives out of eastern CO & NM, which should initiate scattered convection in the afternoon and evening hours. If this shortwave pushes further south though, some rogue activity could develop south of the Canadian River Valley (20-40% POPs north and central, 10-20% POPs south). Per usual, strong downburst wind gusts are the main concern, and drier air should keep the heavy rain potential on the lower side. Harrel && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 115 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Could the Panhandles truly see a pattern shift next week to provide more rain opportunities and heat relief? Several global models continue to suggest that the answer is yes, but don't get your hopes up for a widespread gullywasher or true "cool down". The work week will start off solidly dominated by high pressure, with triple digit heat holding steady. But long range data does show troughing over the Great Lakes region sagging southward by midweek, which would suppress high pressure further southwest over El Paso. This synoptic pattern would allow northwest flow aloft to provide better disturbances and weak fronts for the region, especially for the northern combined Panhandles. Ensemble members mostly agree this would increase rain chances each evening- overnight Tue-Thu, but despite favorable deep layer moisture (PWATs 1.0-1.5"), most members suggest rainfall totals wouldn't be terribly impressive (mostly 0.50" or less). Temperatures are progged to decline to the 90s Wed-Thu, but not for long as widespread triple digits are favored to resume through the end of the week. In summary, we have reason to be hopeful for better weather next week, but the expectation is that most locations are more likely to maintain relatively hot and dry conditions. Harrel && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 115 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR sky conditions are favored at all sites over the next 24 hrs. Winds will be out of varying directions this afternoon as outflow boundaries move through, but wind speeds will generally be 5-15 kts. Scattered storms can't be ruled out near KAMA this afternoon, but coverage is aticipated to be extremely spotty/hit-or-miss, leading to low confidence for TAF mentions. Winds will settle out of the south- southwest overnight through the end of the period at 10-20 kts. Harrel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ004-005- 008>010-012>015-017>020-317. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ008>010-013>015- 018>020-317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...38  965 FXUS64 KSHV 221833 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 133 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New UPDATE, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Heat-related impacts will continue through at least the middle of next week as hot afternoon temperatures and very warm overnight temperatures persist. - A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms on Saturday and Saturday night will pose the threat for strong to severe wind gusts. - A pattern change towards late week may bring slightly cooler high temperatures and higher chances for beneficial rain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Water vapor imagery early this afternoon shows a fairly high amplitude ridge of high pressure centered over the Southern and Central Rockies, extending through much of the Intermountain West, the Southern Great Plains and into Mexico. Upstream from this feature exists a fairly robust area of low pressure off the PNW Coast, while downstream of the ridge broad troughing exists across the majority of the Midwest and Eastern US. Near the surface, the latest WPC analysis depicts a weak boundary across SE OK and along the AR/LA border and into MS/AL, with a cool front pushing south across the Central Plains and towards northern AR as an expansive 1026mb high filters into the Northern Great Plains and Upper MS Valley. The pattern described above places the Four State Region on the eastern periphery of the expansive upper level ridge, where some large scale subsidence could still be at work, but it also opens to the area into a NW flow pattern, where multiple shortwave disturbances can be detected within this broad flow. This always makes for a challenging forecast in regards to convective potential/coverage across the CWA. Meanwhile, boundaries near the surface often serve as a catalyst for convection within a warm and unstable environment, in which case multiple either exist or are pushing into the area. For the rest of today, expect hot temperatures in the lower 100s with heat index values between 105 and 110 degrees. All heat precautions will need to continue to be exercised. Convection this afternoon and evening will be tricky to forecast. A decaying complex across OK will largely diminish as it continues to approach the area. Despite this, given sufficient instability and steep low-level rates, isolated single-cell thunderstorms may develop ahead of it this afternoon and evening and carry a threat for small hail and gusty winds, especially along and south of the I-20 corridor. Also later this afternoon, a shortwave trough will push across eastern AR, along with the the southward moving cool frontal boundary. This is generate a moderately organized area of convection, most of which will remain east of the area across central and eastern AR, however isolated to scattered convection may eventually develop westward across Southern AR and northern LA through the overnight period. Any convection that develops across the CWA overnight will gradually weaken and diminish through Sunday morning. Cloud cover will be noticeably higher on Sunday, especially across LA and AR where high temperatures may be 1-5 degrees cooler on Sunday. Unfortunately, high temperatures will still range from the upper 90s to lower 100s so heat index values will still reach advisory criteria. Therefore, the heat advisory has been extended area-wide for Sunday. Convective chances appear more limited for most of Sunday as the upper level ridge nudges slightly farther east. Still cannot completely rule out the chance for isolated afternoon and evening convection given the residual cool frontal boundary and daytime heating. Any convection will pose a threat for strong to severe winds briefly. Of greater concern late Sunday and into Monday appears to be another shortwave perturbation moving through the NW flow over AR, which hi-res guidance is suggesting could generate another semi-organized complex of thunderstorms. Should this complex develop, it may bring a better chance for wider-spread rain and thunderstorms. Placement, timing, and extent of this convection remains a challenge to forecast, but certainly bears monitoring in the near-term. Moving into next week, ensemble consensus moves the ridge back east slightly. This will continue the concern for heat-related impacts as well as continue the elevated fire danger across the area. While many people will not have enjoyed reading that, there also remains rather solid consensus in another retrogression of the ridge by mid-week, which may offer slightly cooler high temperatures in the 90s and perhaps a better chance for rain and convection. CK && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions prevail as an elevated cloud deck develops from the northwest this afternoon. Recent models have pulled back on convection developing this afternoon enough to be removed from this package, but some pop-ups can't be ruled out. Apart from visibility reductions, conditions are expected to remain VFR with these showers. Winds will largely be light/variable into the overnight hours. Models have started to focus on convection developing over northeast TX and southwest AR this evening and propagating southeast through the region. There is still uncertainty on both exact timing and locations of impacts, but most sites should at least expect VCTS from 23/00z through 23/06z. Gusty winds will be possible with these storms in addition to the typical hazards. Once convection dissipates early Sunday morning, light/variable winds with some lingering elevated cigs will carry through the end of the period. /57/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Spotter activation may needed late tonight and again on Sunday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 79 103 80 102 / 20 30 10 10 MLU 75 101 77 97 / 10 30 10 30 DEQ 72 101 74 102 / 30 20 10 0 TXK 75 102 77 102 / 30 20 10 0 ELD 74 100 74 97 / 50 30 10 20 TYR 80 105 81 105 / 10 10 10 0 GGG 78 105 80 104 / 10 20 10 0 LFK 77 103 77 101 / 0 10 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ DISCUSSION...23 AVIATION...57  037 FXUS61 KBGM 221834 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 234 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... PoPs and QPF were increased for the Monday night into Tuesday timeframe for areas along and north of the NY Thruway Corridor due to lake effect rain showers that are expected to develop. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A broad upper level low moving southeastward into the area tonight into Sunday is expected to lead to unsettled weather into early next week. 2) High pressure builds in for a brief lull in wet weather Wednesday, then additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to return Thursday into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A broad upper trough will be setting up across the eastern U.S. this weekend with an upper low dropping southeastward out of Canada and becoming a closed low over the Great Lakes on Sunday. A surface low is expected to develop over the eastern Great Lakes region as well tonight into Sunday. These features are expected to be the main drivers of our weather into early next week. Conditions have remained relatively stable this afternoon. This, combined with the lack of a forcing mechanism has allowed for the area to remain rain-free for now. Can't rule out an isolated shower later this afternoon, but otherwise most of the rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will hold off until tonight. The surface low over the eastern Great Lakes is expected to lift north-northeast, passing just north and west of the area Sunday. As it shifts north toward the Ontario/Quebec border, it will drag a surface cold front across the region Sunday. Latest trends have this cold front moving through in the morning, which keeps the greatest chance of showers and thunderstorms during that timeframe. As the winds shift to more westerly following the passage of the front, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop Sunday afternoon (greatest chance in Central NY), but coverage of these should be rather limited. By Monday, the 500mb closed low moves overhead. This combined with with cooler air aloft moving over the Great Lakes with 850mb temps falling to +6C to +10C and a west to northwest flow in place, additional lake effect/lake enhanced rain showers are expected to develop. As the upper low lifts NE Tuesday, there could be a few lingering lake effect rain showers downwind of Lake Ontario near and north of the NYS Thruway before drier conditions return. Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected this weekend before turning noticeably cooler Monday with the upper low overhead with highs in the 60s and lower 70s. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure briefly builds in Tuesday night into Wednesday with dry conditions. Then Thursday into Friday, a similar pattern to this weekend will likely set back up with a potential low moving up from the south and another upper trough pushing in from the west that would bring the chance for additional showers and thunderstorms. As of now these features appear to be more progressive and look to move out of the region by next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Lowering cloud bases and CIGs move in from the south later this evening, with MVFR to IFR conditions expected at all terminals. IFR CIGs are forecast to spread north over much of the forecast area late tonight and early Sunday morning. There will also be increasing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms heading into tonight and Sunday morning as a frontal boundary approaches. These could bring occasional IFR visibility restrictions and gusty/erratic wind gusts at times. Outlook... Sunday...Showers and potential thunderstorms with associated restrictions. Monday...Scattered showers at the Central NY terminals with associated restrictions possible. Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJG/DK AVIATION...KL  070 FXUS61 KLWX 221834 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 234 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe weather risk increasing tonight for areas west of the Blue Ridge Mountains. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Showers and thunderstorms expected tonight with a cold frontal passage, some possibly severe, especially west of the Blue Ridge Mountains. - 2) Dry conditions anticipated early next week. - 3) Warmer and more humid conditions return mid-week, with thunderstorm chances returning by Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and thunderstorms expected tonight with a cold frontal passage, some possibly severe, especially west of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop west of the Blue Ridge Mountains where clear skies have allowed for sufficient destabilization to occur. We're also currently watching storms over eastern Ohio where SPC has issued a SVR TSTM Watch. CAM guidance show a broken line of thunderstorms forming in the lee of the Appalachians tracking eastward this evening across the rest of the fcst area ahead of cold front. Some storms may be severe, but as storms travel east late this evening and overnight, expect a gradual weakening trend due to more stable air and gradual stabilization due to nocturnal cooling. Showers or storms may persist until early morning across the Chesapeake Bay and northeast Maryland. The front will clear the fcst area overnight, but some upslope showers may persist on the upslope areas of the Appalachians in NW flow. Breezy and cooler Sunday with scattered fair wx clouds. A sprinkle here in there is possible, but mainly dry. KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry conditions anticipated early next week. On Monday, we are expecting a cold front to pass through our region. Behind the front, northwesterly winds usher in dry air from central Canada. These sub-60F dewpoints could persist until midweek. With high pressure building over the Appalachian Mountains, drier and cooler conditions could last until late Tuesday. Overall, we are expecting highs to remain in the 70s and mid 80s early next week. Overnight lows ranging in the 50s and 60s throughout the region. KEY MESSAGE 3...Warmer and more humid conditions return mid-week, with thunderstorm chances returning by Thursday. Heading into the middle of next week, surface winds shift southerly. As this tropical air mass moves through our region, humid conditions return through the end of the week. Temperatures rise back into late- August normals with highs in the 80s and 90s Thursday. Late next week, models depict a cold front drapping north to south across the Mid-Atlantic. As an upper-level low near Hudson Bay pushes this front across our region, chances for showers and thunderstorms return. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MVFR cigs persisting through this evening with showers and thunderstorms likely between 00Z-05Z. I handled any pop-up showers this afternoon with VCSH as air mass is stable and coverage is isolated. Then, TEMPO groups between 01Z-05Z when showers and thunderstorms are likely. Cdfnt clears the area overnight/early Sunday with NW winds gusting up to 15 kt. Sct clouds 050 Sunday. Light to gentle winds shift westerly Wednesday afternoon.VFR conditions are expected early next week. && .MARINE... SE winds this afternoon, then becoming NW Sunday. SMWs may be required later this evening and overnight with showers and thunderstorms. Winds shift southerly by Wednesday, with winds gusting above SCA thresholds later that evening in a classic southerly channeling event ahead of an approaching cold front. && .COASTAL FLOODING... Easterly winds have raised water levels significantly along the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay with most guidance greatly underestimating the pile up of water. Only CBFOS guidance has performed well so far. With the higher of the astronomical tides coming up tonight and elevated water levels, minor coastal flooding seems likely at Annapolis. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ014. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LFR/KVH AVIATION...LFR/KVH MARINE...LFR/KVH  174 FXUS61 KILN 221837 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 237 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for our far eastern counties. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening as a cold front moves through. Some severe storms are possible. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Scattered storms will increase in coverage this afternoon ahead of a cold front. SBCAPE values near 2000 J/kg will support some tall updrafts that may produce some strong to damaging wind gusts. Additionally, freezing levels near 11,000 ft will allow for at least some small hail to develop in several of these storms. Marginally severe hail near 1" certainly possible with the tallest storms, but that threat will be more limited. The severe threat will gradually taper from west to east this evening, ending by 7-8 PM for our CWA. Note that these storms will be capable of brief heavy downpours as well. However, the environment is such that storm motion will be more progressive, which will help limit some of the hydro concerns. However, if a location where to receive multiple rounds of heavy downpours or had some brief backbuilding, minor flooding issues may ensue. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Rounds of showers and storms will be possible this afternoon and evening. Strongest storm currently moving across KILN near 18z, but KCMH/KLCK will likely have the best chance for multiple rounds of showers and storms in the coming hours. Strong wind gusts the primary threat with the tallest storms, with small hail possible. Surface winds around 10 kts with gusts near 20 kts this afternoon and evening, primarily out of the WSW. Behind the cold front, surface winds turn WNW'ly and remain close to 10 kts through most of the night. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Clark AVIATION...Clark  129 FXUS66 KMFR 221835 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1135 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...Updated AVIATION discussion for 18Z TAFs... .KEY MESSAGES... * A dry cold front will pass through the area today, with increased winds across the region, especially east of the Cascades, where areas of blowing dust are possible. * Marine stratus and/or fog will persist along the coast today into tonight, with some light drizzle possible along and west of the coastal mountains. * A Red Flag Warning is in effect for areas east of the Cascades this afternoon and evening due to gusty winds and low humidity. * Winds ease on Sunday, with a generally unimpactful pattern expected for next week. && .DISCUSSION...The closed low that has lingered offshore for the past few days will push northeast today, passing onshore north of the mouth of the Columbia River by late this afternoon, while an associated dry cold front will pass through the region as well. This will result in daytime highs of up to 5 degrees cooler than yesterday, and much closer to normal for this time of year. Gusty winds are expected today as the front passes. Model guidance shows 700 mb winds, a good proxy for maximum gusts east of the Cascades, will peak at about 40 mph ahead of the front early this afternoon, then diminish through the evening. To the west of the Cascades, particularly in the Rogue and Shasta valleys, gusty northwest winds will peak this afternoon behind the front, gusting to around 20 mph. These winds, along with low daytime humidity, will result in heightened fire weather concerns this afternoon and evening for areas east of the Cascades. A Red Flag Warning is in place for these areas, with details available in the fire discussion below, and at PDXRFWMFR. The frontal passage will be a dry one, for the most part, but some drizzle or very light rain is possible along the coast and in the coastal ranges as onshore flow keeps the marine layer well entrenched there, and upslope flow enhances along the western slopes of the coastal ranges. The trough opens up and rejoins the main belt of Westerlies as it exits the area Sunday into Monday, allowing the Four-Corners ridge to retrograde back to the west. The northwestern periphery of this ridge will nudge in overhead Monday into Tuesday, allowing temperatures to rise about 5 to 10 degrees, producing warmer than normal late August highs. There is a potential, although slight, that increased moisture entering the area within the southwest flow aloft could interact with a weak impulse, could produce an isolated shower or thunderstorm or two over far eastern Modoc and southeastern Lake counties, but much will depend on how far the ridge actually nudges into the region, and if the timing is just right. The warming of MOnday and Tuesday will be shortlived, however, as another trough digs southward offshore of British Columbia, arriving off the coast of the Pacific Northwest by midweek. The trough will push the ridge to the east, bringing temperatures back to more seasonal levels for the remainder of the week. Minor disturbances in the persistent southwest upper-level flow next week may result in breezy to gusty afternoon winds at times, especially if another dry front or two pass through the area. Long term ensemble guidance shows little hope for measurable precipitation through the rest of the month, and only a very small chance for the first week of September. && .AVIATION...22/18Z TAFs...Marine stratus remains over the Oregon coast and into the Umpqua Valley, but the Umpqua Valley is clearing quickly to start the TAF period. The coast will see stratus last into the afternoon, with a brief period of VFR levels until stratus rebuilds in the evening. MVFR ceilings could return to the Umpqua Valley early Sunday morning. Other inland areas look to stay at VFR levels through the TAF period. Winds become gusty in the afternoon, especially east of the Cascades, then ease into the evening. -TAD && .MARINE...Updated 130 AM PDT Saturday, August 22, 2026...South winds are expected today as a weak front passes through the coastal waters, then winds will shift to the north and increase Sunday morning as a thermal trough develops along the coast. Gusty north winds and steep wind-driven seas will persist through Monday morning. The main belt of stronger winds will push into the offshore waters Monday afternoon and evening, with a southerly surge of winds and fog possible along the inner waters Monday night into Tuesday. Generally light winds and calm seas are then expected through much of next week with low pressure persisting over the northeastern Pacific. && .FIRE WEATHER...Updated 130 AM PDT Saturday, August 22, 2026...An upper level trough and associated dry cold front will pass through the region today, bringing a period of increased winds and critical fire weather conditions. Model guidance shows 700 mb winds, a good proxy for maximum gusts east of the Cascades, will peak at about 40 mph ahead of the front early this afternoon, then diminish through the evening. To the west of the Cascades, particularly in the Rogue and Shasta valleys, gusty northwest winds will peak this afternoon behind the front, gusting to around 20 mph. The deciding factor for potential critical fire weather today will hinge on humidity. Minimum RH west of the Cascades will be too high, so even though winds will be gusty and may approach critical values, conditions should remain below levels of concern. East of the Cascades, however, daytime minimum humidity will trend lower today than yesterday, dropping into the teens or even single digit percentages. Thus, another day of critical fire weather conditions is expected there. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for areas east of the Cascades this afternoon, for FWZs 284/285/624/625. More typical summer conditions return Sunday and persist into early next week. There are some signals for thunderstorm chances across far eastern 285/625, namely the Warner and Hart mountains, on Monday, but much will depend on how far west the Four Corners High retrogrades behind this trough passage. Otherwise, another trough drops southward from the Gulf of Alaska and lingers off the BC coast through early next week. There will likely be additional shortwaves/troughs to swing through the region early next week, bringing periods of enhanced winds. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ624-625. CA...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ284-285. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ370-376. && $$  218 FXUS61 KAKQ 221838 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 238 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Slight (level 2/5) excessive rain risk trimmed back to just the Eastern Shore. - Marginal (level 1/5) Severe risk added to areas west of I-95 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers and some embedded thunderstorms expected today. Isolated instances of flooding possible at the coast and isolated severe weather possible for western counties. 2) Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered diurnally driven convection returns by the middle to latter part of the week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 230 PM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered showers and some embedded thunderstorms expected today. Isolated instances of flooding possible at the coast and isolated severe weather possible for western counties. A quasi-stationary boundary with weak low pressure along it is still located just south of the area as of mid-day surface analysis. A cold front is approaching the Appalachian region. Aloft, a trough axis is located just to the west, placing the FA under SW flow. Radar trends have been interesting today. Due to conflicting flows at the surface and in the mid/upper levels, showers have been nearly stationary. Luckily, these have been mostly limited to over the marine areas, so flood advisories and warnings have not been necessary so far. There is also enough shear to support rotation in one of the storms over the Ches Bay, which resulted in an SMW. Additional isolated showers are starting to pop up over coastal land areas, though. With little to no movement, PWATs climbing toward 2", and instability sitting at ~1000 J/kg, flash flooding could still be a threat where these showers pop up. Based on the HREF/REFS outputs, the highest threat may be on the Eastern Shore once the sfc front slides northeast and those existing showers finally drift east. This thinking lines up well with the updated Day 1 ERO that trimmed the Slight Risk (level 2/4) to just the Eastern Shore. These showers (and a few rumbles of thunder) will likely persist into this evening until the incoming cold front kicks them out. Speaking of the cold front, it will likely sweep through the local area during the overnight hours. Additional showers/storms will be possible with the front, particularly across the piedmont and northern counties. The 12z HREF indicates that 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE along with 25-30kt of shear should linger long enough into the evening to support a couple of stronger storms. The SPC did expand the Marginal risk for severe weather into the western counties to cover this. Damaging wind gusts is the primary threat. Timing looks to be 8p-12a. KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered diurnally driven convection returns by the middle to latter part of the week. The weak front will finally move offshore late Sunday, as the main upper level trough axis shifts offshore and surface high pressure builds into the SE CONUS. The surface high will usher in a drier airmass with seasonable temperatures in the 80s and dew points in the 60s Sunday. A reinforcing intrusion of dry air is likely Monday/ Tuesday with dew points in the 50s looking likely (except 60s far SE). Unsettled conditions and isolated- scattered aftn/evening convection returning mid to late week as the sfc high breaks down. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Saturday... Conditions have overall improved at the terminals as of latest obs, though some spotty MVFR CIGs are lingering in the region as a whole. Showers continue to linger across the immediate coastal areas, but have largely avoided the terminals. Left precip as prob30s for the most part due to the low confidence, but did put showers in a prevailing group for SBY since the approaching cold front should be able to push the showers from the Ches Bay closer to the terminal. The aforementioned front will sweep through the region overnight, ushering in drier air. Light winds turn to the west behind the front tomorrow. Patchy fog is possible inland late tonight due to light winds and lingering low level moisture. Outlook: Drying out as high pressure fills in. Dry and prevailing VFR conditions expected through the early week period. && .MARINE... As of 125 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Generally benign marine conditions are expected through the weekend into early next week. - Showers and occasional thunderstorms are expected today, with diminishing chances of showers and thunderstorms Sunday into early next week. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail this weekend through much of next week. A weak surface trough remains centered along the coast today. Meanwhile, a larger trough moves in from the west late today into tonight. Scattered showers and storms have developed along the first trough over the Ches Bay and are expected to continue through this afternoon. Additional showers/storms are possible with the second trough this evening. Winds this afternoon were SE 5-10 kt for most of the local waters with locally stronger winds of 10-15 kt across the middle Ches Bay. A few gusts up to 20 kt are possible across the Ches Bay through tonight, however, confidence in frequent gusts to 20 kt is too low to issue SCAs at this time. Otherwise, a warm front slowly lifts north later today into tonight, allowing winds to become SW 10-15 kt behind the front tonight. A cold front slowly pushes across the local waters Sun with high pressure building in behind it. As such, winds become light and variable Sun. Another weak cold front crosses the coast early Mon with a brief wind shift to NW, before becoming variable with speeds remaining less than 10kt. Yet another weak cold front crosses the coast early Tue, resulting in a brief wind shift to N/NNE. High pressure settles off the Southeast coast from mid to late week, resulting in SE-SW flow at or below 15kt. Seas of 2-3 ft continue through the week with predominant seas of only around 2 ft. Meanwhile, waves remain 1 ft to occasionally 2 ft waves in the Ches Bay. A low rip risk will be maintained through Tue. Will note that while winds become onshore Tue, nearshore seas remain only around 1-2 ft which should limit the rip current risk. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AC/SW AVIATION...AC MARINE...RMM  264 FXUS63 KUNR 221839 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1239 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Upper ridge will dominate the weather through next week - Thunderstorm areal coverage will increase tonight and hang about into next week, although in the hit or miss variety - Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms may occur during the later afternoon/evening hours today through Tuesday - Temperatures will average 4-8F above normal && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday) Issued at 1236 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 18z surface analysis had weak high over the northern Plains into the middle MO river valley. Weak frontal boundary behind it from central MT into eastern CO. Patch of low stratus over western NE has been pushed northwestward on southeasterly winds along boundary leading to upper 50s Td/s across parts of northeastern WY. Water vapour matinee depicted shortwave ridge over the CWA, but shortwave trough hot on it's heels over eastern ID/western WY. Lift ahead of wave leading to some weak radar returns over northeastern WY, but nothing below 12kft per KGCC observation. Main concern this forecast is convection. Later this afternoon/evening, around 1500J/kg MLCAPE pools along frontal boundary with weak MLCIN. Shortwave overtops, which will assist convective initiation. Perhaps 20-30kt effective shear will be present, enough to support isolated strong/severe thunderstorms where SPC Day 1 Marginal in place. Storms will slowly move eastward across the CWA tonight, but in weaker fashion over western SD given less favorable environment. Temperatures will be near guidance. Sunday, aforementioned frontal boundary ends up over the western SD plains, influenced by tonight's convection/outflow. The further east it goes, the less the effect on the CWA. Right now, HREF suggests it'll settle over the eastern quarter of the CWA. 2KJ/kg CAPE pools along it with 30-40kts of 0-6km shear sufficient for strong/severe thunderstorms. Some CAM guidance suggests a supercell or two dropping south along the UNR/ABR border area late in the day. Temperatures will be near guidance. For Monday/Tuesday, disturbances rotating around the upper ridge will support additional chances for strong/severe convection given forecast shear/buoyancy profiles. The rest of next week looks less active as upper ridge/height rises more dominant. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Sunday) Issued At 1054 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon hours. Breezy southeasterly winds with gusts of 20 to 25 knots will be common across the plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across NE WY after 22z, spreading eastward through Saturday evening. Transient MVFR/IFR conditions are possible with any convection along with hail and gusty, erratic winds. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Helgeson AVIATION...MLS  276 FXUS64 KCRP 221839 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 139 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Heat Advisory from 1PM to 7PM. - Major to Extreme risk of heat-related impacts continue into next week with peak afternoon heat indices around 110 - Daily elevated fire weather conditions over the Brush Country && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A high that is located around the Four Corners region, will meander south-southeastwards slightly by next week. This will promote very dry rain free conditions outside of occasional isolated seabreeze convection daily. After some analysis, the decision was made to issue a heat advisory for the Coastal Bend extending into the Victoria Crossroads. This will be due to air temps already around 90 degrees at 10 AM, dew points in the mid to upper 70s, and the expected lack of cloud cover with relatively weak winds. Heat indices will be up to 112 through this evening. Expect these conditions to persist through the next week. Therefore we will continue to monitor for short-fused heat related products. We could see heat indices near 115 by midweek. This translates to moderate to predominately major HeatRisk conditions, though some areas of extreme HeatRisk will be possible in the Brush Country. We strongly encourage the practice of heat safety in these conditions. Take frequent breaks and remember to stay hydrated, check those backseats, and avoid long exposure in these temperatures. For more information be sure to check out weather.gov/heatsafety. Late next week, guidance is hinting at the potential for a disturbance to sneak around the eastern periphery of the ridge. This could combine with some returning moisture to provide some relief. We will continue to hold our breath on this possibility due to it being so far out unfortunately. In the meantime, stay cool everyone! && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Expect VFR conditions to dominate the period. Though some periods of MVFR CIGs and VSBYs will be possible around daybreak at a couple of the eastern terminals (ALI and VCT). Winds will be out of the south- southeast through tomorrow with speeds up to 25 knots today. Lighter winds expected tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Light to moderate (BF 2-4) onshore breezes will continue through the period, with occasional fresh (BF 5) breezes possible during the late afternoon/evening hours, especially south of Port Aransas. Seas are expected to remain around 2-3 feet. Rain chances will remain near zero into next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 123 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ERC values are in the 75-89th percentile, with low humidity, dry to critically dry fuels, and hot temperatures, leading to elevated fire weather conditions over the Brush Country and portions of the Coastal Plains. Conditions will need to be closely monitored as a few locations across the Brush Country could even see critical fire weather conditions into next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 76 97 77 96 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 74 104 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 79 106 77 105 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 73 103 73 102 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 81 93 81 93 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 77 106 75 105 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 74 100 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 80 91 81 91 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ234-242>247- 342>344-346-347. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NP/92 AVIATION...NP/92  314 FXUS63 KICT 221840 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 140 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lingering showers and thunderstorms will exit southeast KS this afternoon - Additional storm chances, especially at night, tonight into next week - Temperatures remain near or above normal&& .DISCUSSION... Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 As of 130 PM Saturday afternoon, the amplified midlevel pattern remains across the CONUS with troughing across the east and ridging across the west. This places the central Plains within a northwest midlevel flow regime. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms continue to move southeast with a remnant MCV. Behind this cluster, a wake low has developed across portions of eastern KS, yielding northerly winds at 20-30 kt with gusts near 35 kt. As the afternoon progresses, these showers and storms will depart southeast KS with mostly sunny skies returning area wide. Temperatures will quickly rebound into the 90s. An area of surface high pressure, currently from ND through northern NE, will slide into eastern KS this evening into tonight. This will result in easterly (upslope) low-level flow across much of the central high Plains. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected across eastern CO and WY this evening. Thunderstorms may gradually grow upscale and move east/southeast into the nighttime hours. Considerable uncertainty remains with the the eastern extent these storms will progress. Instability greatly decreases within the area of surface high pressure across eastern KS. In addition, the low/midlevel WAA is quite weak. Combining those two together suggest any storm activity will be on a weakening and decreasing coverage trend upon reaching central/eastern KS. The greatest potential for rainfall late tonight into Sunday morning appears to be along and north of I-70. Transitioning into Sunday, the area of surface high pressure will remain across eastern KS, yielding light easterly winds. Temperatures will also be notably cooler with highs ranging from the mid 80s to the low 90s. The forecast area will remain within a northwest midlevel flow regime into next week, as subtle perturbations eject into Plains on a near-daily occurrence. This will support at least small rain chances almost every night next week. In regards to the temperatures, the core of the midlevel ridge will remain southwest of the forecast area over the next 7 days. This should keep the hottest temperatures southwest of the state with highs generally in the low to mid 90s each afternoon. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 An area of showers and thunderstorms continue to move across portions of southeast KS, including the CNU area. This activity will remain at CNU through 19Z before VFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail through much of the period with easterly winds near 10 kt. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out near 12Z across central KS but confidence is much too low for inclusion at this time. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BRF AVIATION...BRF  394 FXUS63 KICT 221841 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 141 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lingering showers and thunderstorms will exit southeast KS this afternoon - Additional storm chances, especially at night, tonight into next week - Temperatures remain near or above normal && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 As of 130 PM Saturday afternoon, the amplified midlevel pattern remains across the CONUS with troughing across the east and ridging across the west. This places the central Plains within a northwest midlevel flow regime. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms continue to move southeast with a remnant MCV. Behind this cluster, a wake low has developed across portions of eastern KS, yielding northerly winds at 20-30 kt with gusts near 35 kt. As the afternoon progresses, these showers and storms will depart southeast KS with mostly sunny skies returning area wide. Temperatures will quickly rebound into the 90s. An area of surface high pressure, currently from ND through northern NE, will slide into eastern KS this evening into tonight. This will result in easterly (upslope) low-level flow across much of the central high Plains. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected across eastern CO and WY this evening. Thunderstorms may gradually grow upscale and move east/southeast into the nighttime hours. Considerable uncertainty remains with the the eastern extent these storms will progress. Instability greatly decreases within the area of surface high pressure across eastern KS. In addition, the low/midlevel WAA is quite weak. Combining those two together suggest any storm activity will be on a weakening and decreasing coverage trend upon reaching central/eastern KS. The greatest potential for rainfall late tonight into Sunday morning appears to be along and north of I-70. Transitioning into Sunday, the area of surface high pressure will remain across eastern KS, yielding light easterly winds. Temperatures will also be notably cooler with highs ranging from the mid 80s to the low 90s. The forecast area will remain within a northwest midlevel flow regime into next week, as subtle perturbations eject into Plains on a near-daily occurrence. This will support at least small rain chances almost every night next week. In regards to the temperatures, the core of the midlevel ridge will remain southwest of the forecast area over the next 7 days. This should keep the hottest temperatures southwest of the state with highs generally in the low to mid 90s each afternoon. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 An area of showers and thunderstorms continue to move across portions of southeast KS, including the CNU area. This activity will remain at CNU through 19Z before VFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail through much of the period with easterly winds near 10 kt. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out near 12Z across central KS but confidence is much too low for inclusion at this time. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BRF AVIATION...BRF  334 FXUS63 KMPX 221840 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 140 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable temperatures expected through the end of the month. - Chance for rain in SW Minnesota Sunday night/Monday morning and a more widespread chance Monday night into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 This Weekend... High pressure overhead today allowed for clear skies this morning into the early afternoon. The heating of atmosphere then allowed for two thing to occur: diurnal fair weather cumulus clouds and mixing. Winds have varied across the broader region due to the winds aloft available to mix down. We have good mixing everywhere, but it is more from central Minnesota to western Wisconsin that has higher winds aloft and therefore higher winds brought down to the surface. As we start to cool this evening along the usual diurnal curve the skies will clear and the winds will become light. With clear skies and light winds we will see ample radiational cooling tonight. This will allow temperatures to fall into the mid 40s to mid 50s. For these cooler areas, east central MN and northwest WI, some fog formation is possible. Sunday during the day will be a similar setup to Saturday with the high pressure system starting to move out, but still present. Another day warming up into the upper 70s, but there are not as high of winds aloft as the upper air pattern shifts and it will therefore not be as gusty outside. This shift in the pattern will have a bigger impact on Sunday night. Temperatures will not cool as much over western Minnesota as clouds move in. This will provide for a wider temperature gap with lows near the SD/MN border near 60 and in western WI temperatures will fall into the 40s. These clouds are tied to a larger system over the High Plains. Some of the rain showers associated with this system could impact parts of the southern Minnesota River Valley Sunday night into Monday morning. Due to the time of day there is little instability, so rain showers are most likely rather than thunderstorms. Next Week... The main driver early in the week on Monday and Tuesday will be a shortwave moving across the Canadian Prairies. The associated surface low and its fronts will be the main source for lift driving the weather. The biggest question for us here continues to be moisture, as many forecast soundings continue to show lots of dry air to overcome. The timing of the frontal passage will limit much of the strong to severe storm chances. However a weak jet streak across North Dakota into northwest Minnesota (better shear) combined with a slightly earlier timing (more instability) could allow for some stronger storms in parts of west central Minnesota. For this reason SPC has a marginal severe risk out for this area. On the larger scale synoptic impacts there are still differences between the timing of the frontal passage and amount of moisture between ensemble members. For this reason any specific 6 hour period is hard to provide much more than a 40 percent chance. When the whole window is taken into account the grand majority of members provide at least some QPF. So bottom line, we will have to get into the higher resolution windows to gain more confidence on details but confidence on seeing rain across these two days has gone up. Past this it looks fairly quiet for the rest of the week with maybe some signal for something at the end of the week, but it is a little early to say much about that. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Generally clear sky VFR over most of the period. Some diurnal cumulus this afternoon, but coverage should keep us VFR. Ample mixing will allow for gusty winds this afternoon up to around 20 to 25 knots. Winds will calm along the usual diurnal curve this evening into the following morning. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR, chc -SHRA late. Wind SE 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR, chc -SHRA early. Wind SW 10-20 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NDC AVIATION...NDC  586 FXUS63 KFSD 221845 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 145 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The next better chance for showers and storms is Sunday night (50- 70%). Locally heavy rain and isolated severe storms are possible. - Otherwise most days through next week will see highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 142 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A quiet night is ahead as high pressure drifts east. Southerly flow will develop in central SD later tonight and become more established across the area through Sunday. The light winds will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 50s, especially east of I- 29. The upper level wave responsible for the low level winds turning southerly will move into central SD tomorrow morning, and eastward and southeast from there through the day. With fairly stout low to mid level dry air, mainly an increase in cloud cover is expected through the morning. The exception will be south central SD where enough moisture may allow for 500-1000 J/kg of elevated CAPE, which will support some spotty showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather is not expected. Lift will gradually increase through the day into Sunday night, when a moderately stronger LLJ focuses on the area. Given fairly weak shear and CAPE values generally under 1000 J/kg, severe weather looks unlikely. However with a freezing level around 13 kft, locally heavy rain will be possible. Not much agreement on the location of the heavier rain with the models pretty inconsistently placing the mid level wave across the area. Some hints that the LLJ will focus somewhere on the SD side, but confidence is low. This wave moves out of the area on Monday but another weaker wave moves by to the north on Monday night and brings a small increase in warm air advection, which could spark a few showers and thunderstorms. Mainly northwest flow aloft continues Tuesday into next weekend. This will bring periodic small chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the week with little agreement on exactly when. Otherwise lows should mainly be from the mid 50s to mid 60s with highs in the 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR through the period. Spotty showers and very isolated thunderstorms will be possible in south central SD late tonight into Sunday morning. Some patchy low land fog will be possible late tongiht into Sunday morning. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...08  517 FXUS65 KTFX 221843 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1243 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon capable of briefly heavy rainfall and gusty winds. - Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and early evening ahead of a cold front bringing drier and breezy conditions. - Cooler in most areas Monday before temperatures trend closer to, if not above average by mid-week. A few showers and thunderstorms will be around most days next week, primarily across Southwest MT. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: High amplitude upper level ridging is slipping east of the region this afternoon ahead of an upper level trough moving onshore across the Pacific NW. Resulting flow aloft is southwesterly, which in combination with an embedded wave lifting northeastward from the base of the upper trough will result in quite a few showers and thunderstorms today. This activity looks to develop across SW MT initially, spreading northeastward into Central MT and vicinity with time. PWATs are elevated, signaling the risk for some heavy rainfall in the strongest thunderstorms. Modest inverted-V profiles suggest strong wind gusts will be the primary concern from a severe weather perspective today, should thunderstorms be able to congeal into at least a broken line. Looking toward tonight forcing increases, especially west of the Continental Divide, as the core of the upper trough approaches the Northern Rockies. There looks to be quite a bit of showers or thunderstorms that develop west of the Continental Divide as a result, with a few of these leaking east of the divide through the overnight. Forcing and flow aloft increases further for Sunday as the upper level system moves overhead and eventually east of the region Sunday night. A cold front moves through associated with this system, bringing cooler temperatures, much drier air, and gusty winds. Ahead of this front there looks to be ample instability, forcing, and marginal kinematics to result in at least a few loosely organized thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. Both strong wind gusts and large hail will be a concern in the most robust thunderstorms. This activity largely looks to develop east of I-15 and continue eastward Sunday. Heading into next week the trend is for weak ridging now across the NW CONUS, which will keep a slightly anticyclonic flow aloft in place. This looks to inhibit showers and thunderstorms for a day or two in most areas, though monsoonal moisture stuck in the southern periphery of the ridge will still result in a few showers and thunderstorms in SW MT near the Idaho border. The ridge axis slowly slips east through the week, with flow aloft becoming slightly more cyclonic each day as another Pacific trough begins to approach the Pacific NW. Showers and thunderstorms gradually increase in coverage mid-week onwards, focused mostly in the afternoon and evening. -AM - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Thunderstorms today: Clearing is being noted on latest satellite imagery across much of ID and into SW MT. This will result in at least weak instability through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. The degree to which the area destabilizes will play a large role in how widespread the risk will be for strong wind gusts. Longer periods of sunny skies would increase this risk over shorter periods of sunshine. Precipitable water (PWAT) values near and in excess of an inch will yield at least a localized risk for briefly heavy rainfall today in the strongest thunderstorms. Should a strong thunderstorm move across an urban area or a burn scar, excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding will be a concern. Overall,the risk for this across any specific area is too low to warrant any flash flood watches. Although this is the case, those in urban areas and near burn scars should be aware of this risk today. Thunderstorms Sunday: Stronger flow aloft arrives with he core of the upper level disturbance ahead of the cold front Sunday. Lingering moisture ahead of the cold front looks to combine with daytime destabilization to result in modest instability by the early afternoon across many areas. Forcing does not look to be lacking Sunday, with the primary limiting factor on organized thunderstorms being slightly sub- optimal shear (Closer to 30kts than 40kts). That said, at least loosely organized thunderstorms look to develop Sunday, mainly east of I-15, which will be capable of strong wind gusts and large hail. Should shear trend much higher, concern would increase for longer lasting, more organized severe thunderstorms. Mid to late week: Guidance has been inconsistent with respect to the progression of Pacific troughing moving in mid to late week. There is a roughly 50/50 split in cluster guidance members for above average heights (Warmer temps) vs below average heights (Cooler temps) across the region by the end of the week. -AM && .AVIATION... 22/18Z TAF Period VFR conditions will prevail throughout this TAF period, with the exception of periods of MVFR conditions due to a passing thunderstorm. Thunderstorms will begin to develop in Southwest MT around 21Z, moving northeast throughout the evening. While confidence was too low in thunderstorms reaching KHVR to include in the TAF, an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing gusty, erratic winds, brief, heavy downpours, frequent lightning and hail. Periods of mountain obscuration will develop due to passing thunderstorms. For KGTF: Thunderstorms are expected to begin moving over KGTF as early as 01Z, and will be capable of producing gusty, erratic winds greater than 40 kt, frequent lightning, brief, heavy downpours and hail. Thunderstorms are expected to exit the area around 06Z. Outside of any gusty, erratic winds a thunderstorm may produce, the chance of a cross-wind greater than 15 kts is less than 10% due to a southwesterly direction. -Dzomba && .FIRE WEATHER... Although precipitable water is above average today, a few lightning ignitions cannot be ruled out in locally dry areas, particularly in terrain. The most concerning fire weather day will be on Sunday when a surface front brings gusty westerly winds amid continued very warm and dry conditions. The timing of this front will ultimately determine how long the dry and windy conditions persist. The latest NBM probabilistic guidance continues to highlight large areas of north- central and portions of southwest Montana with over a 70% chance for wind gusts over 30 mph. Although the fuels aren't quite as dry as they were in earlier in the month, elevated fire conditions will be present and the wind may be enough to ignite any lightning caused hold over fires from Friday and Saturday's storms. In addition to the winds, there will be more widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with strong, erratic wind gusts. -AM/RCG && .HYDROLOGY... The combination of increased monsoonal moisture aloft and lower level moisture moving in from the east today will result in a 10% chance for localized heavy thunderstorm rains producing flash flooding over and near burn scars, urban areas, and other normally flood prone locations. While this activity will be monitored for the aforementioned flash flooding, a flash flood watch will issued with this forecast package per the more scattered nature of higher rainfall rates and progressive storm motion. Themoisture profile begins thin on Sunday, which will reduce the threat for excessive rainfall through early next week. - RCG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 62 89 54 81 / 20 20 0 0 CTB 58 81 50 77 / 20 20 0 0 HLN 57 87 50 85 / 60 20 0 0 BZN 54 86 49 85 / 50 40 20 0 WYS 46 78 40 79 / 50 30 20 0 DLN 52 85 47 84 / 40 20 0 0 HVR 62 93 56 82 / 10 40 20 0 LWT 60 89 53 79 / 20 50 30 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  799 FXUS64 KLCH 221846 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 146 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Area wide Heat Advisory in effect this afternoon and again on Sunday with max heat index values of 111 F. - Heat Stress Levels have increased to Extreme (level 4 of 4) for southeast Texas and Louisiana Saturday; this level of heat stress will persist through at least Monday. - Chances for rainfall are low and spotty for isolated showers and thunderstorms. Mainly hot and dry conditions are expected through Monday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 129 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Very weak troughing extending offshore this afternoon and evening will fill into Sunday becoming slack around standard atmospheric pressure ~ 1013mb. 22nd/18Z sounding illustrates a rather dry lower troposphere between the sfc - 800mb. However, the forecast does carry some late afternoon PoPs to account for any Seabreeze interaction with the northwest flow. Activity that does develops would appear to remain primarily sub-severe and isolated at best. That is a large change from Friday evening where measured instability (CAPE) was anomalously high in the 22nd/00Z sounding at 6699 J/KG*K and support robust updrafts across Acadiana yesterday. With the forecast trending mainly dry, sans the potential for late afternoon isolated activity in the short term, our main focus will trend toward hot temperatures and heat related impacts / illnesses. Upper 90's to low 100's with light winds will be the case through Monday afternoon. While drier air will be mixing down aloft, winds do turn back out onshore overnight and remain so into the early work week ahead. That influx of Gulf moisture will fight against mixing to keep dewpoints warm enough to support heat advisory criteria across the area through the weekend. A shortwave trough deepening southward, east of the Mississippi, will drive a frontal boundary toward the central/east Gulf coast into Tuesday morning before diminishing. Stronger surface ridging begins to migrate east over Eastern Seaboard. Meanwhile, troughing deepens south across the Southern Plains. However, because of the weak forcing and northwest flow on the forward side of the upper level ridge over southern New Mexico, blended guidance isn't too excited to account rain chances in the forecast, locally. Another impulse to the western flank of the shortwave trough extending across the midwest brings the Jet further south into the central Plains late Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures will continue to trend toward the mid and upper 90s, but chances for rainfall do increase Thursday onward as a new frontal boundary meanders south toward the ARKLATEX region. Weak upper level troughing also appears to deepen in the Gulf potentially supporting a more baroclinic environment toward the coast into the following weekend. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 129 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Conditions are expected to prevail VFR through the evening hours and overnight. That said, late afternoon offers a conditional chance of TS before sunset across most terminals. Winds expected to be light tonight becoming more southerly into 23rd/AM. 30 && .MARINE... Issued at 129 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Light onshore winds will continue for the next several days, and seas will range occasionally up to 2 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 129 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Although portions of the forecast area along Acadiana received a healthy dose of rainfall, much of the area has remain largely dry across far west Louisiana and Southeast Texas. No appreciable / widespread rainfall is in the forecast through the middle of next week ahead, currently. Given the hot and mainly dry forecast, KBDI values are expected to slowly climb. Afternoon minRH values will range 35-45% this weekend. The main limiting factor for aggressive fire behavior is a lack of wind, with speeds generally expected to stay below 10 kts. Regardless, caution should be exercised and outdoor burning is not recommended. Multiple parishes and counties have burn bans in effect. Please consult your local fire departments for more information. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045- 055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ027>033-044- 045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262- 515-516-615-616. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ180-201- 259>262-515-516-615-616. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30 AVIATION...30  889 FXUS63 KBIS 221849 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 149 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periodic low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms late tonight through Monday. - A few storms may be strong to severe in southwest and south central North Dakota during the day Sunday, far western North Dakota Sunday night, and central and eastern North Dakota on Monday. - Temperatures are favored to remain near to slightly above normal through next week, with highs mostly in the 80s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Quiet weather continues with some fair weather cumulus developing over the James River Valley. UPDATE Issued at 911 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Quiet weather continues with high pressure settled over the area. No changes needed at this time. UPDATE Issued at 633 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The forecast for today remains on track. Quiet weather will prevail under surface high pressure. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 413 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A highly-amplified upper level wave pattern lies over North America early this morning, with a ridge axis along the Rockies and a trough axis from Hudson Bay to the Southern Appalachian Mountains. Surface high pressure is centered over southeast Saskatchewan, which is keeping the local weather very quiet. The surface high will morph into an elongated ridge and slide over the Red River Valley by the end of the day as the upper ridge axis begins to pivot off the Northern Rockies. Quiet weather will continue through the daytime hours, with high temperatures this afternoon ranging from the mid 70s northeast to mid 80s southwest. A mid level shortwave will eject off the Northern Rockies by this evening, cutting through the ridge axis. The increasing downstream warm-air advection, moisture transport, isentropic lift, etc. could generate showers and thunderstorms in eastern Montana tonight, spreading into western North Dakota early Sunday morning. MUCAPE could exceed 1000 J/kg with effective bulk shear near 30 kts in the southwest Sunday morning, but convection should remain elevated, and most CAMs are only simulating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The 00Z NAMnest is an outlier with a couple of clusters of strong to severe storms with bowing segments in the southwest Sunday morning and into the afternoon. Proximity model soundings at Dickinson do show higher RH at the base of the EML and higher equilibrium levels in the NAMnest, but its hodographs could best be described as chaotic. Therefore, the risk for severe weather Sunday morning into the early afternoon is very low, but not zero. This could change later Sunday afternoon as diurnal heating opens the potential for surface or mixed-layer based convection. However: 1) there is high confidence in a strong capping inversion above the boundary layer, 2) a moist southeasterly surface flow is not conducive to efficient boundary layer mixing, and 3) mid level clouds and/or anvil shading from morning convection could limit diurnal heating to some extent. CAMs do show an increased probability in stronger convection over south central North Dakota mid to late Sunday afternoon along the eastern gradient of the buoyancy pool, where CIN may be relatively weaker. Still looking at a CAPE/ shear parameter space supportive of only marginally severe storms though. But regardless of intensity, there are still medium chances (30 to 60 percent) for showers and thunderstorms across much of western and central North Dakota Sunday afternoon and evening as the shortwave moves through. Increased confidence in the aforementioned southeasterly flow and cloud cover has cooled the high temperature forecast into the lower and mid 80s for all butfar southwest North Dakota on Sunday. By Sunday night, a much more potent shortwave/upper low will be ejecting off the Canadian Rockies into the southern prairie provinces. Clusters of thunderstorms forming off the Montana Rockies late Sunday afternoon could cross into western North Dakota Sunday night before dissipating. If this convection is maintained, it could be strong to severe as it moves into a higher buoyancy air mass with increasing shear. The 06Z HRRR appears to show a reasonable worst-case scenario with a broken line of strong to severe storms extending from the Canadian to South Dakota borders entering the state after 10 PM CDT. Simulated surface winds gusts in the 06Z HRRR are much lower in western North Dakota though than they are in eastern Montana earlier in the evening. The thunderstorm forecast on Monday remains uncertain and may end up highly dependent on the eastward propagation of the occluded front attendant to the potent Canadian upper low. Both CAPE (~2000 J/kg) and shear (~35 kts) directly ahead of the front are projected to be sufficient for severe storms. But very few ensemble members are generating any convection along the front, likely due to an absence of mid to upper level forcing. Broad mid level height falls do eventually spread into northern North Dakota, but that may lag behind the surface front. The latest NBM has reduced PoPs to only 20 to 30 percent Monday afternoon and evening, and kept mentionable PoPs east of Highway 83. But location uncertainty in the surface front at 00Z Monday evening ranges from as far west as Minot to Dickinson (NAM) to as far east as Devils Lake to Jamestown (a small subset of GEFS members). The progression of the front is also likely to play a role in high temperatures on Monday. Strong mixing in the dry post-frontal air mass could allow temperatures to approach 90 in southwest and south central North Dakota, with at least lower 80s elsewhere. This is assuming a slightly quicker frontal progression, which ensembles do tilt towards. Ensemble guidance shows the Canadian low digging southeastward on Tuesday, but with variance in its trajectory. That uncertainty may dictate how much temperatures cool off on Tuesday, but the NBM has trended slightly warmer than previous iterations with highs in the mid/upper 70s north to lower/mid 80s south. Regardless, Tuesday is likely to be a windier day, with northwest winds gusting as high as 35 mph. There could also be some diurnally-driven showers across the north Tuesday afternoon. Ensembles favor a return to northwest flow between an eastern CONUS trough and western CONUS ridge for the second half of next week, with uncertainty on when or if the ridge might get pushed eastward. Ensemble clusters that are more heavily ECMWF-weighted are much more progressive in breaking down the ridge, while some GEFS-heavy clusters keep the ridge to our west into next weekend. The NBM broadly maintains near average temperatures through the end of next week, but is starting to trend slightly above average in southwest and south central North Dakota considering that average temperatures themselves are now beginning to cool at this time of year. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Afternoon fair weather cumulus over the James River Valley is resulting in some low end VFR ceilings, though should erode later today into this evening. South-southeast winds will be on the increase overnight into Sunday morning. Over western North Dakota, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible late overnight into Sunday morning, possibly affecting the KDIK and KXWA terminals. Given high confidence, have mentioned in the KDIK TAF. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...JJSDISCUSSION...Hollan AVIATION...JJS  836 FXUS63 KDVN 221847 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 147 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather expected through the weekend. - Outside of a system centered around Wednesday, mainly dry conditions are forecast to prevail until late next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 As low pressure organizes over the eastern Great Lakes region, a large area of high pressure will set up over the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley. This will lead to beautiful late summer weather locally with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, comfortable humidity, and overnight lows in the 50s! && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to continue through much of the next week with some operational models showing a transition to more zonal flow across the CONUS to end the next week. Although there are numerous disturbances moving through the flow passing near the area, the next more widespread chance (20 to 30%) for showers and storms appears to be late Tuesday night through Wednesday when a stronger shortwave moves across the region. Any rainfall amounts will be light through the middle of next week. Monday is expected to be the coolest day of the period with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. High temperatures the rest of the week are forecast to be in the lower to mid 80s. Tuesday night onward, low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1138 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR will prevail through the period with high pressure in control. Steady NW winds (10-20 kts) through the day will subside by this evening. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Uttech LONG TERM...Cousins/Uttech AVIATION...Uttech  872 FXUS63 KTOP 221849 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 149 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional chances (20-35%) for showers and storms Sunday morning and again Sunday night into Monday morning. Severe weather is not expected. - Intermittent chances for rain continue through next week. Highest chances (30-60%) come Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. - Slightly cooler Sunday, then temperatures hold near-normal with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s through the remainder of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 149 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The synoptic pattern remains stagnant across the CONUS with the mid- level ridge parked over the Rockies and Southern Plains and northwest flow aloft across the Northern and Central Plains. Morning showers and storms have exited and clearing skies have allowed for good insolation. Temperatures have climbed to around 80 degrees and will top out in the mid to upper 80s. Another wave of energy in the northwest flow will spark convection across the High Plains tonight and this activity will propagate east-southeast, approaching north-central Kansas between 5-7 AM Sunday. Given how today's showers/storms lingered longer than CAMs suggested, have trended PoPs higher to match closer to the HRRR, which had the best handle on today's precipitation. Severe weather is not expected, but storms could produce gusty winds. There is a signal for isolated to scattered showers to continue through the daytime hours Sunday with thicker cloud cover keeping temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Isentropic ascent along with lift from a weak shortwave will increase precipitation chances again Sunday night into Monday, with highest chances across eastern Kansas. This activity is unlikely to be severe and will push east of the forecast area by mid-morning Monday. More abundant sunshine will bump temperatures back into the mid 80s to low 90s Monday afternoon. Very little change to the large-scale pattern is progged through the remainder of next week. Embedded perturbations in the northwest flow will lead to intermittent chances for showers and storms, with the strongest wave moving through Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Temperatures hold near-normal with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions expected. Some patchy fog may develop overnight, especially at KTOP, but confidence is low given elevated winds off the surface and increasing cloud cover. Showers may approach KMHK around 14z Sunday, but coverage and location of precip is too uncertain to include for now. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Flanagan AVIATION...Flanagan  943 FXUS62 KMLB 221850 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 250 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Daily afternoon shower and storm development is forecast across east central Florida through this weekend and into next week. - Storm hazards today will include frequent to excessive lightning, strong to marginally severe wind gusts, small hail, and heavy downpours leading to rainfall accumulations of 1-3". - Heat remains a concern across east central Florida, though peak heat indices are anticipated to stay below advisory criteria. Regardless, residents and visitors to the area are encouraged to practice heat safety! && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Current-Tonight... Isolated to scattered convection has been able to overcome dry air across west central Florida late this morning and through early this afternoon with some activity already moving into interior portions of east central Florida. Based on these trends, healthy development of scattered cu, and more recent aggressive runs of the high-res guidance, have nudged up rain chances across the local area through this evening (~40-50%). The highest coverage is generally forecast along collisions with the east coast sea breeze across portions of Okeechobee, Osceola, eastern Orange, Brevard, and eastern Volusia. Up to this point, drier air seems to have suppressed updraft height and intensity. However, continued surface heating and future boundary collisions may allow a few updrafts to punch further through the dry layer, and stronger storms that can develop will be capable of frequent to excessive lightning, wind gusts of 40-55 mph, small hail, and heavy downpours. Expect coverage to diminish from west to east through late afternoon and into the evening with dry conditions forecast overnight. Low temperatures mostly fall into the mid 70s. Sunday-Monday... A mid to upper level trough persists over the eastern U.S. on Sunday before gradually lifting northeastward on Monday. Light offshore flow continues through late this weekend, turning out of the south on Monday as the western Atlantic high transitions northward and settles over the central Florida peninsula. Some uncertainty still exists in rain chances on Sunday as drier air is modeled within the layer from 850-500mb. However, a passing shortwave aloft looks to provide enough localized moisture and energy to support a mention of isolated to scattered rain chances (20-40%) across portions of east central Florida Sunday afternoon and evening. Shortwave energy broadens and mostly dissipates by Monday with the drier air then limiting rain chances mostly below 20-30% for much of the area. Cold temperatures aloft (~ -7C @ 500mb), high DCAPE (900+ J/kg), and efficient surface heating will continue support for a few strong storms, particularly on Sunday. Strong storms which develop will be capable of frequent to excessive lightning, wind gusts 40-55mph, heavy downpours, and small hail. Outside of showers and storms, hot temperatures persist in the low to mid 90s with peak heat index values ranging 102-107F. Tuesday-Friday... A broadening trough pattern will support a series of mid-level shortwaves over the eastern U.S. next week. High pressure will persist at the surface with a ridge axis draped over central Florida. Light southerly flow may often become variable early each day before the sea breeze shifts winds onshore each afternoon. Drier air persists on Tuesday, with PWATs increasing closer to seasonal values mid to late week. This should result in slightly below normal rain chances (20-40%) Tuesday, shifting closer to normal (40-60%) from Wednesday onward. Coverage should follow diurnal trends initiated by surface heating and boundary collisions. Temperatures are forecast to hold near to slightly above normal reaching the low to mid 90s each day, and humidity will allow peak heat index values to exceed 100F through the extended forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Favorable boating conditions continue outside of storms. High pressure across the south Florida waters through late this weekend lifts northward and settles across the central Florida waters on Monday. Prevailing light offshore flow (southwest) continues through Sunday, turning south to southeast as the sea breeze develops. Prevailing flow then shifts out of the south Monday and through much of the upcoming week, still turning onshore with the sea breeze each afternoon. Seas hold mostly 1-2 ft, briefly increasing to 3 ft offshore early Sunday. Isolated to scattered offshore moving storms in the afternoon and evenings will be capable of frequent to excessive lighting, wind gusts to 34 kts or greater, and locally higher seas. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 147 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Made a few timing adjustments to VCTS and PROB30s, but otherwise no significant changes from the previous TAF package for this afternoon/evening. Offshore (WSW-SW) flow 5-10 kts has kept the ECSB pinned, and is only now begging an inland push, shifting winds onshore (S-SE) around 10 kts behind the boundary. Confidence is TS evolution has decreased a bit. HREF guidance continues to call for mainly ISO TS, but recent HRRR runs have been more aggressive, especially along the sea breeze collision near/between the coastal/inland terminals after 21Z, and neither models have initialized well. Quick AMDs to upgrade PROB30s to TEMPOs may be needed. +TSRA capable of locally high gusts +35 kts and small hail are possible. TS/SH dissipate or move offshore after 01Z, with some activity lingering to 03Z. Mostly quiet conditions overnight, but an ISO SH or even TS can't be ruled out. High uncertainty in Sunday's TS/SH chance, which guidance varying between ISO to SCT coverage, and possibly an early start. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 93 75 93 / 40 40 10 20 MCO 76 95 76 96 / 30 30 20 20 MLB 77 94 77 93 / 40 20 20 20 VRB 75 93 75 92 / 30 20 10 20 LEE 75 92 75 94 / 10 30 10 20 SFB 76 94 75 95 / 40 40 20 30 ORL 77 94 76 95 / 30 30 20 30 FPR 76 93 75 92 / 30 20 10 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Law AVIATION...Haley  942 FXUS63 KJKL 221850 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 250 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another cold front will bring a possibility of showers and thunderstorms to the area today. - Some storms this afternoon and evening could produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. - Noticeably cooler and less humid air will then arrive to start the new week, with mainly dry weather. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 250 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026 At 1845Z, satellite shows a mix of low and mid level clouds. Showers and storms have initiated to the north along a weak disturbance extending from the southern shores of Lake Erie south to the Kentucky-West Virginia line. A cold front approaches eastern Kentucky from the northwest this afternoon, driven by shortwave energy and a deepening long wave upper level trough. As daytime heating aids destabilization, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected from mid-afternoon into early evening. Looking at the 12Z RAP this evening, a representative sounding near JKL depicted an environment with strong surface buoyancy (2400 J/kg), high DCAPE (1000-1100 J/kg), and steep low-level lapse rates (0-3 km lapse rate of 7.2 deg C/km). In addition, 0-6 km bulk shear at 40 kts along with MUCAPE slightly above 2500 J/kg this will help sustain organized updrafts. With BRN shear at 18 m2/s2, the environment as a whole favors multicell clusters with some supercellular elements. High DCAPE along with steep 0-3 km lapse rates, 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear, and the approaching cold front will support damaging gusts of most likely 45-60 mph. Hail will be a secondary hazard, though several limiting factors--such as anemic updrafts from poor mid-level lapse rates (6 deg C/km) and an elevated freezing level (13,000 feet)--may cause substantial melting before reaching the ground. The hodograph remains generally straight up to 200-300 mb (9 km) followed by a directional shift to the NNW, which could eject hail embryos aloft, further limiting hail size. Hail will be isolated and could reach quarter size, but will likely remain smaller. SPC has placed all but Wayne County in a Slight Risk for severe weather. The shortwave progresses east of the CWA later this evening, leading to clearing skies and light winds. Fog should form overnight, with valleys and locations that receive rain favored for dense fog. High pressure builds into the area from the Upper Midwest on Sunday, bringing a mix of sun and clouds along with cooler weather. Dew points dropping into the mid 50s to low 60s will make conditions feel much more comfortable. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 400 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026 At the start of the long term period, the main story will be pleasant weather more reminiscent of early fall than late August. Upper level troughing will sit over the eastern CONUS, with a relatively vertically stacked low pressure system over Ontario. Meanwhile, to the southwest of the forecast area, upper level ridging will be centered over the Southern High Plains. At the surface, high pressure will sit over the Midwest, with winds generally light and northwesterly across eastern Kentucky; this will work to maintain the cooler and drier postfrontal air mass to begin the week. These light winds and a weak pressure gradient across the area will also allow for a modest ridge valley temperature split overnight Sunday into Monday morning, with typical valley fog formation. MOS guidance could be a bit aggressive with overnight lows for some spots, given lingering moisture, and low 50s for the coldest spots may be overdone. For most or all locations, low temperatures will likely range from the mid 50s in valley locations to the upper 50s or around 60 on the ridgetops. During the day on Monday, the upper level ridge will expand eastward somewhat. Associated height rises across the Ohio Valley should work to keep the forecast area dry, with temperatures rising into the upper 70s to low 80s. Thankfully, continued northwesterly winds will keep dewpoints blissfully low in the mid 50s. Overnight, low temperatures will again fall into the 50s, with a similar modest ridge valley temperature split and another night of river valley fog. On Tuesday, forecast uncertainty increases somewhat. The upper level trough axis will be well east of the area, with eastern Kentucky in a region of northwest flow aloft. Many models depict a shortwave traversing this flow, with fairly substantial spatial and timing differences; at present, the most likely outcome is that, at best, this energy delivers a glancing blow to the forecast area, relegating any rain chances to Tennessee. However, some deterministic model runs do suggest that an isolated shower or storm could be possible in our southwestern counties. Even so, a drier solution currently appears far more likely, and NBM PoPs are accordingly very low. More widespread rain chances may return to the forecast on Wednesday as a surface low originally over Oklahoma translates northeastward. A warm front associated with this low will attempt to lift towards the area; however, a cold front extending from another surface low over the Upper Midwest will loom to the west of the forecast area. Given the expected eastward progression of this cold front, there is significant uncertainty regarding how far north the warm front can progress before it is overtaken. Broadly, Wednesday and Thursday will feature increased moisture and a chance of showers and storms; however, any forecast details will remain dependent on the location, progression, and timing of these boundaries, and forecast uncertainty is very high at this time. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026 A cold front and disturbance will approach during peak heating and result in isolated to scattered convection between about 18Z and 03Z. Some of the storms could contain strong to damaging wind gusts and some gusts in the 30 to 40KT range if not locally higher are not out of the question. PROB30 groups were included for a few hours at all sites for the potential for thunder on station for a brief period. Any convection could bring brief reductions to IFR if not lower. Winds will generally remain WSW to W at 5 to 10KT between 18Z and 00Z. Winds will trend to the northwest behind the front between 00Z and 06Z and slacken. Some fog development is favored after 06Z and IFR or lower reductions for areas mainly south of KSYM and KIOB are possible per guidance as high pressure builds in behind the front. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GINNICK LONG TERM...HEF AVIATION...GINNICK/JP  911 FXUS65 KBOU 221850 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1250 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Highest coverage of showers and storms expected today, along with a few severe storms and locally heavy rainfall this afternoon and evening. - Scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms through Thursday. A risk of a couple severe storms each day. - Temperatures settling back closer to (but still above) normal for Tuesday and Wednesday. - Gradual drying end of next week, with a trend to more summer heat through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/... Issued at 1249 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Satellite and radar shows pretty healthy convection developing across the Front Range Mountains and Foothills, while the airmass is still somewhat stable (per ACARS and SPC analysis) but increasingly moist over the plains. The increased moisture on the plains is being reinforced by a couple westerly moving surges, and dewpoints have held in the upper 50s and lower 60s east and north of Denver. The latest surge coming back through Elbert County will likely boost values over the Palmer Divide this afternoon, especially as we develop a surface cyclone in vicinity of Douglas or western Elbert County. That will aid moisture convergence and potential for convective initiation there, along with a risk of a landspout. Otherwise, stronger storms today will be capable of hail and strong winds, along with locally heavy rainfall as precipitable water (PW) values climb to 150-170% of normal and low level moisture remains abundant over the plains. As per typical, we still think the highest threat of strongest storms would be along/east of the convergence zone associated with the developing cyclone and points northward along/just east of I-25 - essentially covering all of the plains. A couple severe storms are likely due to MLCAPE increasing to 1200-2000 J/kg. Bulk shear is weak and less than 25-30 kts, however, so majority of the severe storms would tend to be pulse (brief). Storm motion will be rather slow at 15 mph or less given lack of flow aloft, which will lead to at least some minor flooding threats in a few spots. Overall progression will eventually be to the east across the plains into late evening, with potential for a generally weaker subsequent batch or two of storms behind the initial stronger ones that would have access to more instability. We still expect some gradual clearing overnight, but patchy stratus/fog possible across the plains given the very moist airmass. On Sunday, there is some drying noted as flow aloft turns a bit more westerly. However, we're not convinced we'll erode all the low level moisture across the plains. Even in the mountains we'll still see enough to spark scattered thunderstorms, and then those storms will likely intensify as they move onto the plains as they encounter a richer, more unstable airmass. Bulk shear profiles are still marginal, but a couple severe storms will be possible given sufficient MLCAPE of 1000-1800 J/kg. Similar weather conditions will likely persist into Monday with little change in the overall pattern, moisture, and instability profiles. Temperatures will be rather warm yet, with highs in the 90-95 degree range over the I-25 Corridor and plains. There is better agreement of a weak backdoor cool front or two for Tuesday and Wednesday, offering up a few degrees of cooling and potentially more active weather over the Front Range and plains. Thursday and Friday are shaping up to be transition days into a drier and warmer environment with progressively less storm coverage, especially by Friday. Ensembles are consistent showing a return of summer heat for next weekend, with highs pushing into the mid 90s (30% chance of upper 90s) for the I-25 Corridor and plains as a stronger zonal flow aloft develops. That would also lead to increasing fire danger as we begin our journey toward autumn breezes. Unfortunately, temperatures will feel more like mid summer and humidities will drop in the drier westerly flow. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday/... Issued at 1131 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A boundary currently to the east of DEN and APA will continue to move westward towards each of those terminals. It now appears likely the boundary will get close enough to both of those terminals to bring stronger easterly winds than previously forecast. East winds could gust to around 20 knots. There is a slight chance (20%), however, that a DCVZ develops just to the east of DEN and APA that keeps winds more out of the northeast with lighter speeds. Storms are expected to develop this afternoon with the earliest possible storms at 19Z at BJC and 20Z at DEN and APA. The most likely time for storms to impact all terminals is between 22-02Z. Strong outflow winds are likely with gusts 40-45 knots. It is even possible (20%) that severe gusts above 50 knots occur at DEN or APA. Besides winds, there is a chance (40%) that visibility will be reduced to 2-4 miles and ceilings drop to 4,000-6,000 feet if a storm were to move directly overhead. In the evening, southerly winds are likely to develop at DEN and APA with a small chance rain showers move overhead with little impact. Drainage winds are expected for much of the night at all terminals. Normal wind patterns are expected throughout the day on Sunday. There will be less low level moisture in place and coverage of showers and storms will be lower as a result. However, an outflow boundary or two is still expected to impact the terminals late tomorrow afternoon and early evening. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...Danielson  994 FXUS65 KSLC 221852 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1251 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1019 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026... - Monsoonal moisture will continue to spread across Utah and southwest Wyoming through Saturday, bringing an increased threat of thunderstorms that could produce heavy rainfall capable of flash flooding. - Moisture will decrease somewhat Sunday into Monday, with the potential for more substantial drying for at least northern Utah and southwest Wyoming late in the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1019 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026... An elongated ridge of high pressure is centered roughly over the Four Corners region this evening. The resultant southerly flow aloft has allowed for monsoon moisture to spread northward across the southern three-quarters of the forecast area. Satellite derived PWs indicate values of 1.0 inch or above for that part of the area, with the moisture continuing to move northward. Embedded shortwave energy in the flow is allowing an area of showers and thunderstorms to continue tonight over central Utah, with the showers continuing to track northward for the remainder of this evening and into the early part of the overnight hours before dissipating. With ample moisture in place tomorrow, will see another round of scattered showers develop during the afternoon. Absent a well defined forcing mechanism, these will be primarily focused over the higher terrain. This will tend to limit the potential for valley convective activity, but would not be surprised to see a few showers pop up away from the terrain. Forcing is expected to be enhanced again during the evening and early overnight hours, this time from a frontal boundary ejecting from a Pacific Northwest storm system. Given the front will be very much outrunning its associated forcing, think associated precipitation will be scattered in nature, primarily focused over northwest Utah. The front is expected to bring a very slight dip in temperatures Sunday or northern portions of the area, bringing highs within 5F of seasonal normals. However, its passage combined with flattening of the ridge as the Pacific Northwest system tracks over the top of it will add a westerly component to the flow aloft, advecting some drier air in through Monday. This does not look to be substantial drying by any means, but there is a high chance of some areas seeing PWs as low as the 0.6 to 0.8 inch range, which could bring minimum relative humidity values back close to critical values for portions of western Utah. This could also act to decrease coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but as we saw earlier this week, there's a good chance that the decrease would not be substantial. Spread in the guidance increase quite a bit for the middle to latter part of the week, putting confidence in the long term forecast a bit lower than usual. For Wednesday into Thursday, another Pacific Northwest trough is expected to move over the top of the Four Corners ridge, and ensembles seem to be struggling with how much the trough interacts with the ridge. Some guidance (the GFS, for example) shows only minor flattening of the ridge, which would keep at least some moisture over most of the area into the upcoming weekend. However, in solutions where the interaction brings more substantial flattening of the ridge (e.g. the latest EC), the more zonal flow would bring more dramatic drying. Will wait and see where things end up landing. && .AVIATION, Issued 536 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026... KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal through the period. Dry conditions will continue through the mid afternoon before isolated convection develops during the mid afternoon with ~30% chance of impacting the terminal.This activity becomes less convective and more showery overnight. Winds will be light and diurnally driven aside from variable and gusty winds associated with precipitation near the terminal. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist for the entire airspace through the period. Conditions across the northeastern airspace are starting to dry. Dry conditions will persist through the early afternoon before more convection develops, primarily across the northern 2/3rds of the airspace. This activity will transition to more showery precipitation across the northern airspace overnight. Winds will remain light and diurnally driven aside from gusty and erratic winds near any showers or storms. && .FIRE WEATHER...Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will become more isolated through early Monday, and largely tied to terrain. Any showers and thunderstorms this weekend will have the threat of strong, gusty microburst winds. Over the work-week, valley humidities will fall slowly each day, reaching near critical to critical levels as early as Monday. There is little sign of an additional monsoon surge after this weekend until after the next weekend. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Traphagan AVIATION...Mahan FIRE WEATHER...Kruse For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  067 FXUS61 KBTV 221854 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 254 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 254 PM EDT Saturday... No significant changes have been made to the forecast. The SPC Severe Weather Outlook for tomorrow shows the region in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) with the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 254 PM EDT Saturday... 1. After a dry and seasonable afternoon, precipitation chances will increase across the region tonight through the start of the week. 2. Following a dry midweek period, the next chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms arrives in the late Thursday to Friday timeframe. && .DISCUSSION... As of 254 PM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1: After a stretch of dry and seasonable weather the last few days, shower chances will return later tonight through the weekend. The main feature driving precipitation chances is a large upper level trough approaching from the Great Lakes. A frontal boundary associated with the parent low will move through tomorrow afternoon, driving the chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon. Model guidance shows modest instability tomorrow afternoon, with CAPE values of 500 J/kg or so depending on the location, although there is some uncertainty as to how much cloud cover lingers through the morning and inhibits afternoon heating. While it's not the most impressive environment, there should be enough instability, shear, and forcing to drive thunderstorm development tomorrow afternoon. SPC currently shows nearly all of the forecast area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather tomorrow, meaning that a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, with possible hail and strong winds as the primary threats. The most likely time frame for thunderstorms will be from noon through about 7PM, so be sure to monitor the forecast if you have any outdoor plans. Storms looks to be progressive, limiting any hydro concerns at this time, especially given the dry weather the last few days. Current rainfall forecasts generally show about 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain across the area, with lower amounts near the International Border and higher amounts possible within any thunderstorms. For the start of the week, the region will remain in broad cyclonic flow, will will allow for linger showers on Monday and Tuesday, especially across the higher terrain. This cyclonic flow will also lead to some lake effect showers off Lake Ontario, with increased shower chances expected across northern New York during this time period. Temperatures will be on the cool side, with highs only climbing into the 70s, with some locations in the Adirondacks struggling to climb out of the upper 60s. KEY MESSAGE 2: Long wave troughing appears to remain over the eastern US later next week, with the base of the trough to our west. As such, the pattern will be somewhat unsettled with chances for showers returning late in the week. The low pressure track is strongly favored to be well to our north into central or northern Quebec, so widespread heavy rain or strong wind is not on the table, and deep layer shear appears limited for severe storms at this time. Of the latest ensemble scenarios, ones with a bit more amplified trough than the mean upper level heights show 0-500 millibar shear probabilities exceeding 30 knots at a greater than 30% chance (rather than close to 0%). Probable hazards for this system would be fairly widespread, general thunderstorm potential associated with the system's cold front, which may be thermodynamically strong. Machine learning and other ensemble guidance does suggest seasonably high instability for late August could be present, with a slight preference for stronger variety thunderstorms as you go southward (roughly 5% chance of severe weather per GEFS). With a faster timing of an incoming cold front, this threat may be limited to Thursday, and a slower timing would suggest Friday would be a day to watch for thunderstorms, especially in Vermont. The latest guidance has trended perhaps a little more towards the later timing, consistent with an occluding low pressure system and associated slowing eastward progress of a cold front. For now, a slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday evening, and slight chance to chance Friday afternoon in most of the region, seems reasonable at this point. Given the amount of outdoor activities anticipated on Friday and large scale setup for thunderstorm potential, this will be a period to keep a close eye. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions will prevail through at least 06Z at all sites. Thereafter, a low stratus layer may develop at MPV; confidence on its development is relatively low, so have indicated a trend towards MVFR ceilings during the early morning hours with consensus on lowest ceilings around 12Z or soon after. Meanwhile shower chances will be increasing generally from west to east, with temporary MVFR conditions due to a combination of visibility and ceilings favored at all sites. Timing of showers looks late enough to leave out of this TAF cycle at EFK and MPV. Along with the showers, a belt of slightly stronger south-southeast winds aloft will move overhead, which should be enough for LLWS at MSS. Otherwise, occasionally gusty winds in the 15 to 20 knot range are favored this afternoon into the evening at BTV, RUT, and MPV; south to southeast winds will tend to diminish after 00Z and pick back up in the 10-14Z period. Outlook... Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Kremer AVIATION...Kutikoff  076 FXUS64 KMRX 221855 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 255 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 236 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected in Northeast Tennessee, Southwest Virginia and the East Tennessee Mountains this evening. A strong to severe storm isn't out of the question, especially in the north, but overall severe chances are low. - Sunday and Monday will be dry with rain chances returning midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A shortwave trough will drop southeast from the upper midwest into the Ohio valley between this afternoon through Sunday morning, helping to push a cold front through the region tonight. Ahead of this front, we could see some isolated strong to severe storms capable of some damaging winds this afternoon through tonight. While better chances for severe storms exist to our north, we'll be in the left exit region of a jet streak aloft this evening, with enough shear in place to support some cluster type cell organization and enough instability to support some fairly strong storms. Again, better chances exist to our north, but a strong to severe storm can't be ruled out for any points roughly north of the I-40 corridor. That being said, the chances for severe storms are overall on the low side. Looking ahead, the aforementioned shortwave will lead to a large scale upper trough deepening over the Great Lakes and eastern CONUS Sunday into Monday before pulling away through eastern Canada and the New England area on Tuesday. The subsequent northwest flow aloft will keep us dry Sun through Tue before rain chances enter the forecast again. Dewpoints may even mix out into the 50s for both Sun and Mon afternoons. And while temperatures will be near seasonal norms both days, the drier air would be a welcome break from the humid conditions of late. As mentioned, rain chances return by midweek as troughing deepens over the eastern CONUS once again. Additional shortwave energy likely brings another system and associated rain chances through the region Wed into Thu before northwest upper flow gives us another shot of dry and cooler air. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 127 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 At least some ISOLD SHRA/TSRA are expected in East Tennessee this afternoon, with a little better coverage expected with an additional round of convection tonight just along/ahead of an incoming front. KTRI stands the best chance of seeing SHRA/TSRA but even that's not certain. Have PROB30 groups in at KTRI and KTYS to handle things. KCHA seems less likely to see any convection. The last item of note is there could be some fog development later tonight but uncertainty in how quickly clouds clear out preclude mentioning that in the TAFs for the moment. KTRI would be the most likely to see it if it occurs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 91 65 91 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 87 62 87 / 20 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 64 87 61 87 / 20 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 81 57 82 / 50 10 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...CD AVIATION...CD  261 FXUS66 KSTO 221859 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1159 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated Fire Weather Conditions today within the Burney Basin due to low RH and breezy westerly winds. - Dry and with seasonable high temperatures through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Upper level trough continues to dig into the Pacific Northwest and Northwestern California through late today. Satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies this afternoon, with some clouds along and east of the Sierra Crest. Temperatures are seasonable today, with highs in the 90s in the Valley, and into the 80s in the foothills and mountains. As the trough moves east through the region, breezy conditions are expected at times within the northeastern foothills and into the Burney Basin. Highest chance to see up to 30kt gusts will be within the Burney Basin. This combined with already low RH values in the teens to lower 20s creates Elevated Fire Weather Conditions today. While winds will be calmer on Sunday, relative humidity will still be very low. Breezy onshore flow will be likely within the Delta and will help to cool temperatures during the late afternoon, evening and overnight hours in the Delta and adjacent portions of the Valley. Otherwise, as we move past the weekend and into next week the pattern aloft looks to remain in place helping to keep seasonal conditions with dry weather at this time. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period, with mostly sunny conditions. Winds will be light for each of the sites, sustained at 5-10kts. A few breezy gusts to 15kts within the Delta area this evening. Otherwise, dry conditions and light winds during the morning hours tomorrow. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$