682 FXUS64 KHUN 222208 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 508 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 909 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - A few thunderstorms may impact the western portion of north AL this evening. Brief strong wind gusts could accompany the most intense cells. - There are low to medium chances of thunderstorms for much of next week. However, timing and impact confidence remains low at this time. && .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Under mostly sunny skies temps have warmed into the high 80s to low 90s. Relatively benign weather is forecast through the early afternoon, after which, attention will shift to a cold front approaching from the NW. Currently, a complex of storms can be seen moving SE through the Ozarks. As the cold front continues to drop SE, storms too will move gradually SE. Still thinking storms will arrive between 6-8 PM and push through by midnight. Unfortunately coverage remains fairly uncertain as CAMS struggle to resolve the weak cold front and associated mid level shortwave. While coverage could be a little more widespread, the current forecast is that storms will clip NW AL, largely staying west of I-65. Storms that do develop will have a risk for damaging winds with bulk shear of around 30 KTs present along the front. Instability will be waning as storms move in, which will likely lead to a weakening trend as storms push south. Please check back for updates. Any storms and rain present look to end after midnight with clear conditions building in by morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 909 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The short term forecast will have two features of interest. The first is slightly cooler temps with highs and lows a degree or two below seasonal norms. Highs look to largely remain below 90 degrees with lows staying below 70. The second feature of interest will be the overall synoptic pattern, which will remain in a ridging west / troughing east regime. This will keep us in NW flow and support additional shortwaves passing through the TN Valley. The first of these looks to be from Monday to Tuesday. While it's a little too soon to pull out specific details, really any passing feature could be enough to support general summertime thunderstorms each afternoon. Please check back for updates regarding any specific hazards and timing. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 751 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026 In the extended forecast, we will get a break from the extreme heat conditions, however in exchange for that, we will be stuck in an unsettled pattern. We will start off with the pattern of an upper level low up in Quebec and the far NE U.S with an amplified ridge stretching from the southern Rockies up through the Northern Plains. On the back side of the ridge, a smaller upper-level low in Manitoba will try to be the driving force for a pattern change. As that smaller low slides SE into the Upper Great Lakes mid-week, the ridge will be dampened enough for it to round the ridge. This pattern will keep us in a northwesterly flow through the week. Embedded in this flow will be shortwaves that will swing through the TN Valley, keeping daily rain chances in. Right now it looks like there is a chance for an MCS to drop through on Tuesday, then again Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Will keep an eye on trends for specific hazards and timing, but for now will stick with NBM POPs. Daytime highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows around 70 degrees. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 508 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 There is a low chance of TSRA this evening, mainly in northwest AL including KMSL. Gusty winds and frequent lightning are the primary hazards. Once these TSRA move southeast of the area by 06Z, VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the period. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RAD SHORT TERM....RAD LONG TERM....JMS AVIATION...17  009 FXUS65 KPIH 222211 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 411 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms return to all of southern Idaho. Thunderstorms continue through the next seven days for many locations in southern Idaho. - Red Flag Warnings in place for scattered thunderstorms today for all of Central Idaho Dispatch area, Southern Idaho Dispatch area, and portions of the Eastern Idaho Dispatch area. - After record heat the past two days, clouds and precipitation will cool afternoon highs significantly today, then continue a weak overall cooling trend through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 124 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A ridge of high pressure over the southwest combined with an upper low off the Pacific coast will support the flow of monsoon moisture into Southeast Idaho over the next several days in southwest flow aloft. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will become more widespread again this afternoon and evening as an embedded shortwave works through. The Storm Prediction Center has included almost the entirety of the CWA in a Marginal Risk of severe weather today. The storm environment becomes more favorable heading into the afternoon through mid-evening hours, with models indicating 0-6km shear increasing to 40 to 50 knots across portions of the CWA. The threat of gusty winds increases as well, with RRFS DCAPE values ranging around 1000 to 1400 J/kg. Thunderstorms will be capable of outflows ranging 50 to 60 mph. Otherwise, moderate to heavy rain will be possible with storms with models indicating precipitable water ranging 0.70" to 1.4" today. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will remain fairly weak today. Temperatures today will run 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday's record temperatures. The main upper level low pressure system will continue to track northward into Canada throughout the day Sunday, resulting in less widespread storm coverage on Sunday with activity more limited to the higher terrain. On the other hand, winds will increase outside of storms with gusts across the Snake River Plain, Arco Desert, and portions of the central mountains ranging 30 to 40 mph. The suppression of the ridge will mean a continuation of gradually cooling temperatures through Monday before the ridge attempts to rebound. During this time, temperatures will briefly warm by several degrees, but ensembles show the next PacNW low reaching the coast and flattening the ridge again come mid-week which will take our temperatures back into seasonable territory or just below for the latter half of next week. Southwest flow aloft will keep enough monsoon moisture lifting northward to support daily chances of showers and thunderstorms throughout next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 411 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Another round of storms storms will move through this evening. 30 percent chance of storms on station at TAF locations. Gusty outflow winds are the main aviation concern for this evening. A few showers may drift through the region overnight, but no significant impacts expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 124 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 We will continue with a RED FLAG WARNING for all zones EXCEPT 413. There will be a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms, with the main impact being storms potentially producing gusts 35-60 mph, if not a bit higher with some storms across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley (410, 425). There is a 30-50% chance of wetting rains across central and eastern Idaho through this evening. Morning cloud cover had muddied the picture a bit on where higher coverage will be, but not enough to make any changes to the warning layout. With this monsoon push, we are expecting pockets of showers across our area overnight, with a 10% chance or less of seeing an overnight thunderstorm or two. As low pressure scoots northeast tomorrow, we are expecting an increase in winds outside of any thunderstorms. Gusts of 25-40 mph are expected across portions of the Snake Plain (410), Lava Beds in the Magic Valley (425), the central mountains (422, 475, 476), and along the Montana border in Zone 411. There is some question on how much dry air works in across those areas. Right now, the best chance of seeing much lower humidity is across the central mountains. We will likely see pockets of critical fire weather conditions, but at the moment will hold off on any RED FLAG WARNINGS for that combination. Elsewhere we are going to be borderline for thunderstorm coverage across Zones 427 and 413. We are also expecting similar issues, in addition to the overall wind, across Zone 411. Again, with borderline conditions (coverage should be much lower than today), we will not go with any warnings for thunderstorms. Outflow gust potential for 35+ mph is lower tomorrow (10-40%) vs today (40-90%). The chance of wetting rain is lower overall 15-30% and more spotty as well. Expect more of the same on Monday. The footprint for showers and storms increases, at least based on current trends, but thunderstorm potential is still borderline for more widespread coverage. Monsoon moisture looks to stick around most of this week, potentially decreasing toward the end of it. We will to watch trends over the next few days to see how long it may be with us and how much precipitation we could see. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ410-422- 425-427-475-476. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cropp AVIATION...13 FIRE WEATHER...Keyes  195 FXUS66 KSEW 222213 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 313 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS...An upper low offshore will move inland tonight and weaken through Sunday. Upper ridging builds into the Pacific Northwest Monday and Tuesday for warmer, dry conditions. An upper low will approach the region midweek for increasing onshore flow and light precipitation chances. Onshore flow into late week will continue cooler conditions into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...An upper low continues to meander towards the Western Washington coast this afternoon. A complicated pattern exists with onshore flow at the surface and continued southerly flow aloft. Scattered thunderstorms occurred this morning, especially over the Cascades. Increasing daytime heating and further destabilization has resulted in additional thunderstorms this afternoon over the North Cascades. In addition, we continue to monitor the threat for localized severe wind gusts (>58 MPH) this afternoon and evening with any stronger thunderstorm over the North Cascades. Elsewhere, POPs remain lower, but a few isolated showers and thunderstorm may exist King County northwards. The upper low will move inland and transition to an upper trough tonight into Sunday. Lingering light rain will continue at times over the Cascades into Sunday with widespread cloud cover into Sunday as well. Temperatures will remain near to slightly cooler than normal through the weekend due to the presence of the upper troughing. An upper ridge slowly builds over the Pacific Northwest beginning Sunday night resulting in drier, warmer conditions on Monday. Surface flow also becomes more northerly, with a slight east component Monday night. This may allow for smoke transport from ongoing wildfires in BC and Eastern Washington towards Western Washington early next week, which continues to be monitored. Otherwise, highs will warm into the mid 70s to mid 80s on Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...The upper ridge remains over the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday, with the ridge axis focused over the Intermountain West. For this reason, Tuesday will be the warmest day of the week, with highs across the interior in the 80s and low 90s in the Cascade Valleys, resulting in areas of Moderate HeatRisk. An upper low will approach the Pacific Northwest offshore by Wednesday leading to increasing onshore flow and cooler conditions. Precipitation chances also increase Wednesday into Thursday associated with this system, and will need to monitor thunder potential over the Cascades (although current probabilities are less than 10%). Ensembles suggest the influence of troughing continues into Friday with onshore flow and temperatures a few degrees below normal. JD && .AVIATION...The marine stratus continues to erode this afternoon across the interior. VFR conditions expected for interior terminals this afternoon, while MVFR will continue along the coast. Another push of marine stratus will bring lowered conditions to the interior terminals Sunday morning. Latest guidance suggests majority of terminals will trend towards MVFR. The coast and Strait of Juan de Fuca have the highest chances (40-60%) for IFR ceilings tonight into Sunday morning. Improvement expected in the afternoon for interior terminals and minor/brief improvement along the coast. Shower and thunderstorm activity has quieted down this afternoon across the majority of the area. However, thunderstorm activity still remains possible north of PAE towards BLI and across the North Cascades. Thunderstorms will have the potential for frequent lightning, gusty/erratic winds, heavy downpours, and reduced visibility. Thunderstorm activity will dissipate tonight. Breezy winds along the Strait of Juan de Fuca, Kitsap Peninsula, and Northern Interior. KSEA...VFR will prevail today. MVFR ceilings are likely Sunday morning with another push of marine stratus. Improvement to VFR after 21z. Southwesterly winds today through Sunday morning at 5-8 kt. Winds shift WNW Sunday afternoon at 5-6 kt. && .MARINE...A weak surface low will continue to move across the coastal waters today and track inland on Sunday. High pressure will rebuild over area waters on Sunday and remain over the area through Tuesday. A weak frontal system will move across the waters midweek. Then high pressure will rebuild over the waters late in the week. Diurnal westerlies in the Strait of Juan de Fuca evening the next few days. Today's westerlies may approach 21 kt at times, but look to overall remain below small craft criteria. Seas 3 to 5 feet through the majority of next week. Felton/29 && .FIRE WEATHER...Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been observed so far today. Coverage has decreased into the afternoon but additional storms are slated to develop, primarily for the North Cascades where HREF guidance has 1,000 to 1,200 j/kg of surface based CAPE modeled in concert with southerly diffluence aloft. As a result, Red Flag Warnings remain for the North Cascades but should be allowed to expire this evening as conditions trend drier. Upper level ridge building in later Sunday. Brief low- level offshore flow possible on Monday as thermal trough builds along the coast before pushing inland overnight into Tuesday. Another upper level trough arriving in the middle of next week increasing the chances for more showers and the potential for thunderstorms. Upper-troughing may linger into Friday. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for West Slopes of the North Cascades Generally above 1500 Feet. Red Flag Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for West Slopes of the Central Cascades Generally above 1500 Feet. PZ...None. && $$  484 FXUS64 KOUN 222218 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 518 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 514 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Excessive heat continues through the weekend and into next week. - Isolated to scattered rain/storms are possible most days with the primary hazard being strong winds. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A ~599 dam mid-level ridge remains centered near the Four Corners region in the southwestern United States. This has placed Oklahoma and north Texas on the northeast periphery of ridge with weak northwest flow aloft. Synoptic-scale ascent from a wave embedded in the flow allowed for a complex of showers and thunderstorms to move through eastern parts of the area this morning. Isolated showers/storms may develop along the remnant outflow boundary from this morning's storms across southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas late this afternoon into the evening. Damaging wind gusts from downbursts will be the primary hazard with any thunderstorms given the large amount of downdraft CAPE (~1500 J/kg) and the hot temperatures. The chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight is lower than previous nights as the mid-level ridge is forecast to expand slightly to the east. This keeps the more appreciable synoptic- scale ascent to our northeast. Mahale && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Hotter weather returns on Sunday with the eastward expansion of the mid-level ridge in tandem with a strengthening low-level thermal ridge. Dangerous heat is expected across much of the area with a Heat Advisory in effect for all locations except northern Oklahoma. Parts of the Heat Advisory may need to be upgraded to Extreme Heat Warning across the south with the potential for air temperatures and/or heat indices >110 deg F. The very hot temperatures across western Oklahoma and western north Texas will result in afternoon relative humidity values near or below 20%, which will result in elevated fire weather conditions. With the ongoing drought and very dry fuels, the total fire environment (weather + fuels) will be susceptible to initial attack fires. As a result, a Fire Danger Statement may be needed for tomorrow. In addition, a few high-based thunderstorms may develop across the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles tomorrow afternoon. Some of this activity may move into western Oklahoma with a dry lightning threat. A weak cold front/wind shift is forecast to advance southward on Monday as a shortwave trough passes by to the northeast. Veered low-level flow ahead of the front will result in very hot, record-breaking temperatures (i.e., "pre-frontal torch") with the potential for temperatures approaching 115 deg F across southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas. In addition, with the veered low-level flow, at least elevated fire weather conditions are expected Monday afternoon with the potential for locally near- critical fire weather conditions. The primary mitigating factor for a higher-end fire weather risk is wind speeds should be somewhat limited. Nevertheless, a Fire Danger Statement will likely be needed on Monday. Mahale && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 This boundary may linger into Tuesday with slightly cooler temperatures across the northern half of the area, but still baking across the south with temperatures once again approaching 110 degrees. The ridge looks to push off to the southwest a bit as well which allows better northwest flow to develop and slightly cooler temperatures (still above normal). Although a few afternoon showers/storms not out of the question Tuesday afternoon, a better upper shortwave drops southeast out of the High Plains as we go into Tuesday night and Wednesday. This should bring, at least to northwest Oklahoma, a better chance of rain as storms move off the higher terrain and slide southeast into Oklahoma. Scattered activity may continue through the end of the week as the northwest flow regime continues to bring some minor shortwaves overhead. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 514 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR ceilings with mid/high clouds. Winds are expected to generally be from the east and southeast tonight. Winds are then expected to shift towards the south and southeast Sunday. Any showers/storms are currently expected to not affect any TAF sites although chances are not zero at KSPS and KDUA for the first couple of hours this evening. If storms do occur, strong, variable winds will be possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 75 103 80 107 / 10 10 10 0 Hobart OK 76 109 82 110 / 20 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 79 109 83 111 / 20 0 0 0 Gage OK 71 105 73 103 / 0 0 10 0 Ponca City OK 72 95 73 100 / 10 10 10 0 Durant OK 76 107 81 109 / 20 10 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ009>012- 014>019-021>048-050>052. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ011-012-014>019- 021>025-027>029-033>041-044>046-050. TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ083>090. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...10 SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...25  818 FXUS63 KDDC 222224 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 524 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Tonight and again on Sunday night. Severe weather currently is not anticipated but a few of the stronger storms on Sunday may produce wind gusts in excess of 50 mph across extreme southwest Kansas. - A warming trend is expected by Monday with highs across south central and portions of southwest Kansas ranging from 100 to near 103 on Monday. - Improving chance for precipitation will develop towards mid week with locally heavy rainfall possible from thunderstorms Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Earlier this morning, a 500mb high was centered over the Central Rockies with a northwest flow present across western Kansas. Embedded in this northwest flow there was an upper level trough crossing Kansas with scattered early morning convection occurring ahead of this upper level system and along/east of a 12-14C 700mb temperature gradient. At the surface a stationary front extended from eastern Colorado into the Texas Panhandle. An area of high pressure at the surface was located over the northern Plains. Models today remain in good agreement with the surface high building into the Mid Mississippi Valley over the next 24 to 36 hours allowing some cooler, more seasonal air, trying to filter into areas of central Kansas through early next week. The surface boundary will remain nearly stationary across eastern Colorado and the Panhandle of Texas. Upslope flow north of this boundary and improving instability late day will result in an opportunity for late day/evening convection over eastern Colorado as a upper level trough crosses the Rockies and moves out into the West Central High Plains. While these storms may initially be capable of producing strong damaging winds gusts...these storms are expected to weaken as they move into western Kansas after sunset. Based on the latest 400mb PVU timing and location of the mid level baroclinic zone tonight it appears that this Colorado convection should move into west central Kansas well after sunset and cross west central and north central Kansas between midnight and daybreak on Sunday. These storms overnight are not expected. Little change in the overall weather pattern is expected on Sunday. On Sunday night western Kansas will still be on the northeast edge of the upper high as more subtle upper waves rotate around this upper high. Models continue to advertise that another upper wave will exit eastern Colorado and cross western Kansas. This once again will favor scattered overnight thunderstorm, especially along and just north of wherever our mid level baroclinic zone will be located. Currently based on the latest CAMS it appears that this baroclinic zone further south which would allow areas south of the Arkansas river to have the chance (20-40%) for this convection Sunday night. Once again gusty winds will be the main hazard from the stronger storms with the more favorable area for these stronger gusty winds being across extreme southwest Kansas (west of Highway 83). As for temperatures late this weekend and into early next week...850mb temperatures will warm by 1-3C and as a result the afternoon high temperatures are forecast to be around 100 degrees across much of southwest and south center Kansas, especially on Monday. Heat index values currently are forecast to remain below heat advisory criteria but it may be close for an hour or two near the Oklahoma border and east of Liberal. Hot August temperatures will be returning but heat advisory criteria is not expected. Temperatures further north on Sunday will be cooler than these triple digit temperaturesand this will be due to increased cloud cover and possible precipitation. Cloudy skies during the afternoon may end up keeping afternoon temperatures as much as 8 to 10F cooler compared to areas that do not have any cloud cover. At this time confidence is not high on where these cooler temperatures/thicker cloud cover will be located Sunday afternoon so will stay close to the NBM guidance at this time. Those with outdoor plans on Sunday across southwest Kansas should keep in mind. If you are in an area where the sun is out before noon then highs will be closer to 100. You should therefore practice heat safety. In contrast if you have more clouds then sun during the afternoon then the highs on sunday afternoon will be closer to the lower 90s. Currently the NBM keeps the skies cloudy and has a 70 to 75% chance that highs along the I-70 corridor will be greater less 95. On Tuesday we will be monitoring a more significant upper level trough crossing the Rocking moving out of the Rockies and into the Plains. As it moves out into the Plains there will be a cold front dropping south into western Kansas . This cold front will not only bring an end to the warming trend but also will bring improving chances for precipitation across all of southwest Kansas. Improving chances for precipitation combined with PWATs improving to greater than 85% that of normal for this time of year may also result in widespread accumulating rainfall from these storms. At this time it appears that our best opportunity for this accumulating rainfall will be Tuesday night with the ensemble clusters indicating anywhere between 30 and 50% chance for 24 hour rainfall totals ending at 7am Wednesday being >0.25". Latest NBM guidance was advertising 24hour rainfall totals ending Wednesday morning 0.25" at 40 to near 70%. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 524 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are forecast for all TAF sites through the TAF period. A modest breeze at around 10-15 KTs out of the east- southeast is forecast. Around 10-14Z, storms are forecast north of all terminals and has around a 15% chance to impact HYS. Ensembles keep lightning probabilities below 30% around HYS so VCTS was not added although it is possible. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Burgert AVIATION...KBJ  830 FXUS66 KEKA 222224 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 324 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Generally mild, seasonable weather is expected for the next week. && .SYNOPSIS...Slightly below normal temperatures are expected today. Some warming in the interior is expected Sunday and Monday before another trough brings cooler temperatures next week. Dry, seasonable weather is likely for the next week. && .DISCUSSION...The upper low that brought a deep marine layer and upper-level moisture (and the associated high clouds) moves out of the area today and high pressure starts to build in behind it. Marine influence is expected to keep temperatures in the interior moderated with most areas in the 80s to low 90s. 60s and 70s are likely closer to the coast. Stratus along the immediate coast is likely to at least partially clear this afternoon with model soundings showing a very weak marine inversion. Weak offshore flow tonight into Sunday morning may slow the reemergence of coastal stratus, though most models do show at least some clouds reforming. Regardless, breezy coastal winds Sunday afternoon are likely to scatter any remaining stratus bringing a mostly clear, but breezy, Sunday afternoon at the coast. Interior temperatures jump closer to normal with 90s likely for most interior valleys. Monday through the middle of the week, a trough starts to approach the area bringing slightly cooler interior temperatures along with a deeper marine layer. Light winds offshore may lead to coastal stratus to be persistent into the afternoons. Moisture and instability is limited with this troughing pattern, which will limit thunderstorm potential. Generally mild, seasonable weather is likely for much of the next week. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFs)...MVFR ceilings from overnight have lifted and scattered out as of 17/18z at KCEC and KACV respectively. MVFR ceilings are likely to return late tonight as stratus fills back in around 8-9z. MOS guidance has ceilings coming down below 500ft with a few hours of reduced visibility, causing LIFR conditions at the coastal terminals and clearing out by 17/18z. The NBM, model blend has around a 20% probability of visibility < 1 sm for the coastal terminals with an area near shore between KCEC and KACV showing a 30% probability of < 1 sm of visibility around 14z Sunday. Mostly prevailing VFR categories for KUKI with southerly winds under 10 kts by Sunday afternoon. /EYS && .MARINE...Moderate northerly winds return to the outer waters this afternoon and increase through Sunday with localized gale force gusts south of Cape Mendocino and fanning out into the southern outer waters followed by the northern outer waters by noon Sunday with the northern inner waters in SC.Y by the early evening. Winds diminish as a frontal boundary arrives Monday evening. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png  933 FXUS63 KGLD 222226 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 426 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms forecast to develop along the CO Front Range late this afternoon will track east toward the KS border this evening. A few storms capable of producing small hail and localized wind gusts up to 65 mph are possible, mainly in eastern CO between 7-11 PM MDT. - Another chance for storms Sunday night with a low risk for damaging winds. - Severe chances likely return for early next week under northwest flow. - Above normal temperatures through at least mid week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Upper ridge over the Texas Panhandle today will gradually migrate westward to the Four Corners by Tuesday night. This position will keep the Central Plains under zonal to northwesterly flow through the period with chances for showers and thunderstorms. Today and Sunday, with the ridge to the south and a zonal flow coming out of Colorado, convection originating over the mountains and Front Range will move east and reach the area during the evening hours. Storms will likely be weakening as they do so with the rapid decrease in instability near sunset. Nonetheless, they may still pose a marginal severe wind risk even in the decaying stages. Rainfall amounts look to be light, less than a quarter of an inch both nights. Monday and Tuesday, will be transitioning back to northwest flow with a corresponding increase in deep layer shear. This will result in better organized updrafts and a severe risk both days for wind and hail. On Monday the primary storm initiation area will be southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. The mean flow around the ridge will take them east then southeast with time, which will place areas generally north of Interstate 70 in the most favorable region for severe storms. On Tuesday, storms will be initiating further south in northeast Colorado in the afternoon, then moving east to southeast through the evening. The severe risk will extend into most if not all of the area. Temperature trends for the period will be above normal all days with highs well into the 90s. Normal highs for this time of year are in the upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 251 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Synoptically, the ridge to the west is forecast to mainly remain stationary over the Four Corners region, keeping us in northwesterly flow throughout the period. Guidance indicates the ridge may begin to amplify on Wednesday, and begin to de-amplify come Friday as a trough moves through the US/Canadian Border. Shortwaves are expected to move through the area during the week and into the weekend, increasing precipitation chances. High temperatures for the period will generally remain in the 90s. Wednesday appears to be the "coolest" day, with highs ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s. Friday is forecast to be the warmest, with highs in the upper 90s and the potential for a few locations to reach the low 100s. If the ridge begins to move eastward, then higher than forecasted temperatures could be seen. Winds are expected to remain calm to breezy throughout the period. Precipitation chances are present throughout the period. Wednesday and Thursday hold the highest potential, with PoPs in the 20-50% range, as shortwaves move through the area during the afternoon and evening hours. While instability and shear parameters appear sufficient for severe storms, model guidance suggests some variability in CAPE and shear values, which could lead to less organized storms and reduced severe chances. Precipitation chance then begins to taper off to 5-15% for Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 423 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Scattered thunderstorms will move across the area overnight and into early Sunday morning. Brief gusty winds and reductions in visibility and ceilings will occur at both KGLD and KMCK. Sunday morning, a period of low ceilings may occur in the wake of the thunderstorms. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...Holdren AVIATION...024  144 FXUS63 KSGF 222230 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 530 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Potential for locally heavy rainfall and flooding Sunday night into early Monday, though uncertainty remains. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Pretty strong northwesterly flow aloft, with an upper high over the Southwest/Southern Rockies and an upper trough over the eastern CONUS. An upper level disturbance continues to slide southeast through the area, which allowed for a cluster of storms to develop over parts of NE/KS earlier this morning. This cluster has since weakened and entered the forecast area, with mainly pesky showers/storms so far this morning/early afternoon. The 12Z sounding showed an impressive amount of MUCAPE (>4500 J/kg), with effective bulk shear >45kts, however many factors have limited storms from tapping into this. An outflow boundary continues to push south, with "cooler" temperatures in the 70s to 80s behind it, and temps in the 90s ahead of it (MO/AR border). Some pockets of clear skies are visible on satellite closer to the MO/AR border, which could lead to these pockets further destabilizing ahead of the showers/storms. If this were to happen, then intensification could occur south of Highway 60 over the next few hours, posing mainly an isolated damaging wind threat, and a secondary isolated hail risk. Latest CAMs however keep this activity weak in our area before intensifying south of the border in Arkansas. This is looking more likely, as cloud cover increases and the outflow boundary quickly advances south, hindering reintensification for our area. The Storm Prediction Center's latest outlook showcases this thinking, with a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk generally along/south of Highway 60, and the better severe risk (Slight risk) south of the forecast area beginning in Arkansas. Shower and storm chances should push out of the area this evening, with overnight lows in the 60s to low 70s tonight. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 On Sunday, the upper level ridge over the west and associated upper high slide slightly eastward, with the aforementioned upper trough continuing to pivot over the eastern CONUS keeping us in northwesterly flow aloft. During the day, conditions look mainly dry, with highs topping out in the 80s to even the low 90s for southeast KS and far southwest MO. Another upper level disturbance looks to slide southeast into the area again Sunday night, leading to additional chances (50-60%) for showers and storms. CAMs show two clusters of showers/storms developing: One pushing southeast from the Dakotas into northern MO, and a second developing over KS/OK pushing east. As these push through the area overnight and into Monday morning, they could pose a localized flooding threat, as some guidance suggests PWATS over 2.0". As the previous discussion mentioned, this would be 150-175% above normal. Current HREF 24-hr LPMMs show localized pockets of 1.5-2.5" of rainfall, with the majority of the area expected to remain below an inch. There's still much uncertainty regarding this activity, with several key mesoscale factors that need to come together to form any hydro concerns. With the area remaining in northwesterly flow throughout the week, we'll see periodic low-end chances (15-30%) for showers/storms. Daily highs should generally remain in the upper 80s to low 90s (northeast CWA) to the mid/upper 90s (southwest CWA). && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 530 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A few showers continue to move east across far southern Missouri early this evening but should push south of the area by the start of the 00Z TAF period. Clouds are quickly clearing from north to south behind the convection. A few high/mid clouds may remain over far southern Missouri including the KBBG site early in the TAF period. Otherwise clear skies and light winds are expected across the area this evening and tonight. East to northeasterly winds are then expected on Sunday with mid level clouds increasing during the day. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Melto LONG TERM...Melto AVIATION...Wise  398 FXUS63 KMKX 222234 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 534 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers & thunderstorms over east-central and southeast Wisconsin through early this evening. A few storms could produce gusty winds to 40 MPH. - An isolated waterspout or two are possible over Lake Michigan through tonight. - Dry and pleasant conditions into the beginning of next week. Storm chances return Tuesday evening into Wednesday. && .UPDATE... Issued 534 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Scattered showers and storms in the east due to a weak wave and lake breeze interaction will continue into early evening. Activity is expected to wind down quickly though as daytime heating is lost. Mostly clear skies, light winds, and decreasing dewpoints are then expected tonight as high pressure builds in, with lows a few degrees below normal around the low 50s most places. DDV && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1145 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 This afternoon through Sunday night: Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: Fair weather cumulus are developing late this morning as surface heating commences within modest low level moisture still in place. While subtle, 11 AM surface observations identify a weak surface boundary extending from near Green Bay west toward the Black River Falls vicinity. Modest north-south moisture differences, in addition to slight cyclonic surface convergence, have been noted across the boundary through the late morning hours. Anticipate that this surface front will continue to sag south into east-central and southeast Wisconsin this afternoon, with its affiliated surface convergence providing just enough lift for scattered showers and thundershowers mainly along/east of a Ripon- Lake Mills-Lake Geneva line. Not expecting much in the way of hazards in any activity, although the strongest thundershowers could produce a few cloud to ground lightning strikes and wind gusts to 40 MPH. Keep an eye on the sky if planning to be outdoors across the east this afternoon. Currently centered along the North Dakota- Manitoba border, high pressure will gradually shift into the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight, ultimately moving overhead on Sunday night. The high's approach & arrival will maintain a Canadian air mass across southern Wisconsin tonight through Sunday night, leading to fall-like conditions during the overnight periods. This Afternoon: Monitoring for a gradual increase in shower/thundershower coverage across the east as a weak surface boundary works in from the north. Expect that most activity will generate as the aforementioned boundary impinges upon the more focused area of cumulus clouds currently evident from Ripon- Sheboygan south to Burlington-Milwaukee. Have thus continued 20-40% precip probabilities along & east of a Ripon-Lake Mills-Lake Geneva line in the mid-day update. Severe weather threat is low in any development given modest instability & weaker along-boundary convergence, though steep low level lapse rates & deeply mixed boundary layers could support isolated wind gusts to 40 MPH in any collapsing precip cores. A few cloud to ground lightning strikes are possible as well. Keep an eye on the radar if planning to be outdoors across the east this afternoon. Quigley && .LONG TERM... Issued 1145 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Monday through Saturday: Synopsis: High pressure will continue across the state on Monday, leading to plentiful sunshine & continued dry conditions with low humidity. The high will shift east of the region on Tuesday, with southerly return flow allowing for gradual moisture returns and slight increases in humidity. The next upper disturbance and surface front will drift into the western Great Lakes from the Canadian Prairies Tuesday evening through Wednesday, bringing the next chances for showers and thunderstorms to southern Wisconsin. Disagreement amongst global guidance regarding the timing of the forcing mechanisms casts some uncertainty over how many rounds of storm development will occur, in addition to storm intensity. Trends will be monitored over coming forecasts. A new area of high pressure will move into the western Great Lakes during the second half of the week, leading to pleasant and mostly dry weather conditions Thursday into Friday. The high will shift east by Saturday. Tuesday Evening through Wednesday: The best thunderstorm chances of the long term period enter the forecast ahead of an upper wave and cold front. Current blended & ensemble guidance generally points to a warm sector spreading into the area Tuesday evening/night, with the trailing cold front then pushing through at some point during the day Wednesday. Precip forecasts from the NBM thus like the idea of an initial batch of storm development within the warm advection regime Tuesday evening/night, followed by additional development along the passing cold front at some point on Wednesday. Available deterministic guidance, however, muddies this picture, with a number of different scenarios being depicted regarding the evolution of both the surface pattern & flow aloft. Have thus trended the precip forecast toward the blended/ensemble scenario at this point, with the understanding that some changes are likely to occur into early next week given the noted range of solutions in the deterministic suite. Aforementioned questions regarding the extent and quality of the warm sector make the potential for any strong/severe storms unclear in this forecast, though prevailing deep layer shear would be sufficient for at least some storm organization in the event timing & spacing allowed for enough destabilization. Will be monitoring trends and providing more details as this portion of the period draws closer. Quigley && .AVIATION... Issued 534 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Scattered showers and storms in the east due to a weak wave and lake breeze interaction will continue into early evening. Activity is expected to wind down quickly though as daytime heating is lost. Winds will waffle between northeast and northwest toward Lake Michigan, as the lake breeze stalls though early evening. Mostly clear skies and light winds are then expected tonight into early Sunday as high pressure builds in. Scattered VFR cumulus and modest northwest winds are likely late Sunday morning into the afternoon. DDV && .MARINE... Issued 1145 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 1010 mb low pressure is centered over the southern Hudson Bay this morning, resulting in generally northeast winds across the open waters of Lake Michigan. These winds will continue into this evening as a weak cold front moves across the lake and 1023 mb high pressure builds into the northern Great Plains. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible along the passing front this afternoon & evening. Severe weather potential is low in this activity, though an isolated stronger storm with gusty winds or a waterspout can't be entirely ruled out. Will be watching radar trends for any potential marine weather statements or special marine warnings through this evening. Northwest winds will continue through the day Sunday, ultimately weakening by Sunday night as the aforementioned area of high pressure approaches Lake Michigan. Light and variable winds will continue Monday with high pressure lingering in the vicinity. The high will shift east into Ontario by Tuesday, resulting in a south-southwest wind shift across the waters. 1005 mb low pressure will approach from the northern Great Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday, reinforcing the south- southwesterly wind pattern. The low will cross Lake Michigan during the second half of the day Wednesday, bringing a northwest wind shift. Gales are not expected as this occurs. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the approaching/passing surface low Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon. It remains too early to tell if any of these storms could be severe, with trends being monitored into the beginning of next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in nearshore zones this afternoon as a weak cold front moves south across Lake Michigan. An isolated stronger storm with gusty winds or an isolated waterspout can't be entirely ruled out. Increasing southerly winds and wave heights may lead to a brief period of Small Craft Advisory conditions Tuesday afternoon & evening, particularly to the north of Milwaukee. Will be monitoring trends & evaluating the need for any headlines through the beginning of next week. The next thunderstorm chances arrive Tuesday evening through Wednesday, with severe weather potential uncertain at this time. Quigley && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  278 FXUS63 KEAX 222249 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 549 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Cooler and drier conditions are expected across the region tonight into Sunday. * Weakening showers may try to build into eastern KS Sunday afternoon leading increasing clouds and perhaps a sprinkle or two. * Spotty showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread east Sunday night into Monday morning. This activity is not expected to be severe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Broad 1025 mb surface high pressure has built south from Canada and is currently centered across the central Dakotas with dew points in the 40s and 50s to the northwest. Drier air will filter into the region this afternoon with high temperatures in the mid 80s. Surface ridge is expected to shift east tonight leading to good radiative conditions. Have forecast lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the region. With the good radiative conditions, could see patchy fog develop in the river valleys and drainage areas, though increasing high clouds from showers and thunderstorms across the Northern Plains may limit potential. Isotropic lift will continue to support the shorts pushing east, though activity will struggle the farther east it goes with limited moisture. Expect the net result to be increasing clouds, and potentially a few sprinkles across eastern KS. Have lowered forecast highs across eastern KS into western MO with increasing clouds. Ridge riding short wave is expected to build south along the Missouri River basin Sunday night. Increasing isentropic lift near the 310K surface may lead to spotty showers and thunderstorms overnight. Mid- level lapse rates are near moist adiabatic so showers should have limited instability to work with, and dry air near the surface should limit precip potential. Warmer, more muggy conditions are expected the first half of next week as the long standing upper ridge expands east. A series of ridge riding short waves building into the Upper Midwest could lead to additional showers and thunderstorms mid-week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 549 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Only aviation concern this TAF pd will be the potential for dense fog at STJ btn 10Z-14Z. Otrw...VFR conds are expected to prevail thru the pd with just incrg high clouds fcst. Winds will remain lgt thru the pd as well remaining blw 6kts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BT SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...73  325 FXUS63 KTOP 222250 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 550 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional chances (20-35%) for showers and storms Sunday morning and again Sunday night into Monday morning. Severe weather is not expected. - Intermittent chances for rain continue through next week. Highest chances (30-60%) come Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. - Slightly cooler Sunday, then temperatures hold near-normal with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s through the remainder of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 149 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The synoptic pattern remains stagnant across the CONUS with the mid- level ridge parked over the Rockies and Southern Plains and northwest flow aloft across the Northern and Central Plains. Morning showers and storms have exited and clearing skies have allowed for good insolation. Temperatures have climbed to around 80 degrees and will top out in the mid to upper 80s. Another wave of energy in the northwest flow will spark convection across the High Plains tonight and this activity will propagate east-southeast, approaching north-central Kansas between 5-7 AM Sunday. Given how today's showers/storms lingered longer than CAMs suggested, have trended PoPs higher to match closer to the HRRR, which had the best handle on today's precipitation. Severe weather is not expected, but storms could produce gusty winds. There is a signal for isolated to scattered showers to continue through the daytime hours Sunday with thicker cloud cover keeping temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Isentropic ascent along with lift from a weak shortwave will increase precipitation chances again Sunday night into Monday, with highest chances across eastern Kansas. This activity is unlikely to be severe and will push east of the forecast area by mid-morning Monday. More abundant sunshine will bump temperatures back into the mid 80s to low 90s Monday afternoon. Very little change to the large-scale pattern is progged through the remainder of next week. Embedded perturbations in the northwest flow will lead to intermittent chances for showers and storms, with the strongest wave moving through Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Temperatures hold near-normal with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 550 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Convection over the high plains is forecast to generate a vort max that rounds the ridge and moves into northeast KS Sunday morning. The latest models/CAMs show precip weakening as it moves into the area, but isentropic surfaces maintain some lift in mid levels well into the afternoon. So there is some uncertainty in whether elevated SHRA will hold together. Will include a PROB30 for MHK due to it's further west location and keep TOP and FOE dry for now. Outside of a shower, conditions are expected to remain VFR. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Flanagan AVIATION...Wolters  433 FXUS66 KPDT 222252 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 352 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag Warnings in effect through 11 PM this evening for abundant lightning and gusty outflow winds for the northern Blue Mountains. - Breezy to windy westerly winds today will overlap with low relative humidity across much of the forecast area. Red Flag Warnings and Wind Advisories are in effect through this evening. && .DISCUSSION... A low-pressure system currently centered near the OR/WA coast will continue to drive an active weather day across the region. Cross-Cascade surface pressure differences have been a bit weaker than anticipated yesterday; observed values in the 7-8 mb range (Portland to Spokane) are a few millibars shy of what we would like to see for widespread windy conditions. That said, NWP guidance shows an increase to 9-11 mb through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. Coupled with a 25-35 kt 850-mb jet through the Cascade gaps and across the Columbia Basin, still anticipating widespread breezy conditions, so have retained the previously issued Wind Advisories which remain in effect through this evening. Additionally, have added patchy blowing dust to the forecast for dust-prone locations within the Columbia Basin region. Confidence is low in timing, magnitude, and duration of any visibility reductions, but given the extended dry conditions, forecast winds will be capable of lofting dust. High-based showers are ongoing across the eastern third of our forecast area, roughly along and east of a line extending from Grant County through Umatilla, Walla Walla, and Franklin counties. Gusty outflow winds in excess of 45 mph have been observed with shower activity in Wallowa County. Additional shower and thunderstorm development will be capable of producing strong, gusty outflow winds due to a deep, well-mixed boundary layer; DCAPE values of roughly 1000-1400 J/kg are in place over the region. CAMs have loosely clustered around the northeastern portion of the Blue Mountains from the Elkhorns north through the northern Blue Mountains for additional thunderstorm development this afternoon. A wide range of solutions remains present among CAMs, many of which produce no significant convection while others initiate and maintain rather robust cells over the aforementioned area. Should robust convection develop, an environment characterized by ample effective shear (30-45 kts) and MUCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg will be capable of maintaining a few strong thunderstorms. Moreover, stronger storms will be capable of producing small hail and severe outflow winds in excess of 60 mph. The low-pressure system will track inland across northern Washington this evening through Sunday, with low (5-10 percent) precipitation chances into tonight. Breezy westerly winds will continue into Sunday, though not anticipating the need for additional headlines for wind or fire weather. Ensemble NWP guidance is in subjectively excellent agreement that a ridge of high pressure will rebuild over the Pacific Northwest by Monday, while a pair of closed lows (one in the Gulf of Alaska, and the other farther south in the eastern Pacific) attempt to merge. A low (5-15 percent) chance of showers and thunderstorms is forecast for the southern Blue Mountains on Monday, with otherwise above-normal temperatures and dry conditions. Later Tuesday through Friday, the then-merged lows (per ensemble mean 500-hPa heights/vorticity and deterministic solutions) will likely (90 percent confidence) track towards the Pacific Northwest (later Tuesday or Wednesday) and eventually inland (Thursday or Friday). This scenario would result in breezy westerly winds through the Cascade gaps and low chances (20 percent or less) of showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... MVFR conditions improving to widespread VFR conditions this evening as showers and thunderstorms weaken across the region. Periods of gusty wind will remain into the evening hours, with a couple sites (KDLS, KALW most notably) seeing a return of periodically gusty wind after 15z on Sunday.The remainder of the area may see a return of smoke with light wind and dry conditions. Branham/76 && .FIRE WEATHER... A low-pressure system currently centered near the OR/WA coast will continue to produce widespread breezy to windy westerly winds of 15-25 mph with gusts of 25-40 mph, locally stronger, through this evening. Moreover, a very low to slight chance (5-20%) of high-based showers and thunderstorms will continue roughly from Grant and Umatilla counties eastward to Wallowa County through this evening. Any showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong, gusty outflow winds of 40-60 mph. Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for wind and low relative humidity (WA690, WA691, OR691, OR696, OR698, OR700, and OR703) as well as abundant lightning and gusty outflow winds (OR/WA692) through this evening. Breezy winds will continue overnight into Sunday as the low- pressure system exits to the northeast, but overlap of critical wind/RH thresholds is unlikely (<30% chance). && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 90 49 82 48 / 20 0 0 0 ALW 93 57 84 55 / 20 0 0 0 PSC 96 58 86 54 / 20 0 0 0 YKM 95 59 86 57 / 30 0 0 0 HRI 92 58 85 53 / 20 0 0 0 ELN 87 54 78 51 / 30 0 0 0 RDM 89 45 84 46 / 10 0 0 0 LGD 95 51 86 50 / 20 10 0 0 GCD 95 53 87 52 / 20 0 0 0 DLS 85 61 82 59 / 10 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for WAZ026-522-523. Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ024-521. Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for WAZ690-691. Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ692. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for WAZ693. Wind Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for WAZ026. OR...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for ORZ041-044-049-050- 502-503-505>507-509>511. Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ041-044-508- 510. Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for ORZ691-696- 698-700-703. Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ692. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ693. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...76 FIRE WEATHER...86  632 FXUS65 KVEF 222256 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 356 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Above normal temperatures continue through next week. * Isolated storm chances linger into early next week, with best chances in northwestern Arizona and the southern Great Basin. && .DISCUSSION...through Friday. Hotter than normal temperatures will continue through the forecast period as a broad ridge of high pressure remains positioned over the area. High temperatures will top out around 2 to 7 degrees above normal each afternoon, with day to day variations depending on the position of the ridge, cloud cover, moisture, etc. Overnight low temperatures will run around 3 to 8 degrees warmer than normal, providing little-to-no overnight relief in the lower elevations of the Mojave Desert where temperatures will bottom out in the mid-80s to mid-90s. Given the long duration of this anomalous heat, we will see widespread Major-to-Extreme (Levels 3 and 4 of 4, respectively) HeatRisk return during the second half of the week. Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to dry things out, with precipitable water slowly decreasing across the region over the weekend. As a result, storm coverage today and tomorrow will be more isolated in nature, and will be limited to the higher terrain of the Southern Great Basin, Eastern Sierra, and the Arizona Strip where there is a 10 to 30% chance of precipitation this afternoon. Localized moderate-to-heavy rain, lightning, and erratic outflow winds will be the primary threats with any storms that develop. Ensemble guidance continues to show a relative uptick in moisture across northwestern Arizona on Monday. Currently, this slight increase in moisture is reflected in the scattered 15 to 30% rain chances in Mohave County on Monday afternoon. Drying will resume on Tuesday, continuing through the end of the week as we find ourselves under southwesterly flow aloft. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Breezy south winds will continue through the afternoon at 8-10KT with gusts over 15KT. Winds will diminish this evening around sunset with typical overnight wind patterns expected through Sunday morning. Similar winds to today are expected Sunday with as southeast winds in the morning become south with gusts to around 20KT in the afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening, remaining well north of the terminals with no local impacts expected. Precipitation will wane after sunset. Temperatures will exceed 100F through 04Z this evening, then again Sunday between 18Z and 04Z. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...South to southeast winds are expected through the rest of afternoon in many locations, gusting 15-20KT at times. West to southwest winds will push into KDAG around 00Z and start gusting over 20KT. Winds will diminish around sunset and follow typical wind patterns overnight. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue across the Southern Great Basin into the evening as well as in the Sierra, but should remain away from TAF sites. Any precipitation will diminish this evening with a dry night expected. Sundays's winds will be similar to today's. Precipitation is possible in Mohave County on Sunday, but generally dry conditions are expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Stessman AVIATION...Nickerson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  725 FXAK69 PAFG 222257 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 257 PM AKDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... - Temperatures are expected cool slightly for majority of the Interior Saturday into the 60s with the Yukon Flats being the warmest in the lower 70s. Temperatures will likely bottom out Sunday in the upper 50s to mid 60s and then increase slightly Monday and Tuesday. - A frontal system will bring as much as 0.2 to 0.5" of rain from Bettles to Minchumina through Sunday morning, with lesser amounts to the east. - Another low entering the southwest Yukon increases northwesterly winds and the chances of wetting rains in the Upper Tanana Valley Sunday. - Very isolated thunderstorms expected in the Eastern Interior Saturday afternoon and evening. West Coast and Western Interior... - As a cold front moves inland on Saturday, gusty northerly winds are likely across the West Coast. Conditions will improve from the west Saturday afternoon/evening into Sunday. - Temperatures cool slightly following the front. Highs in the 50s to near 60 expected through much of the upcoming week. - Another storm approaches the West Coast Sunday and is expected to bring yet another round of gusty winds, moderate to heavy rainfall, and locally higher tides. High Surf Advisories have been issued for the Southern Seward Peninsula, Norton Sound Coast, and Yukon Delta Coast. North Slope and Brooks Range... - A brief period of wintry mix is possible near Prudhoe Bay and Kaktovik overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. No ice accumulations are expected. - A front sweeps across North Slope Saturday through early Sunday, bringing the potential for traces of snow, with 1-2 inches possible in the North Central Brooks Range. - Expect highs in the 30s to 40s after the front passes through,which will be west of Umiat Saturday and from Umiat east Sunday. Highs are expected to rise above normal west of Umiat on Sunday and then widespread over the North Slope on Monday into the 50s and 60s. && .SYNOPSIS... A front has brought rainy conditions back to the Western and Central Interior Saturday. Gusty northerly winds along the West Coast following the front slowly weaken through the day. On Sunday another low approaches the West Coast and will bring another round of elevated water levels, moderate to heavy rainfall, and gusty winds to much of the West Coast. Relatively warmer and drier conditions are expected in the Southeastern Interior, although some showers and gusty northwesterly winds are expected Sunday. Yet another low approaches the West Coast Thursday with more wind and rain expected for the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... At the start of the forecast period, Saturday, a front continues across the Western Interior bringing considerable rain to that region. This front is being sourced from a large upper level low over the Arctic Ocean. A trough follows the front, and a smaller low has developed at the base of the trough that will continue south towards the Gulf of Alaska. The front continues slowly east until, pulled taut between the Arctic low and the low pushing south, it begins to fall apart into more showery rain Saturday evening over the Central Interior. Overnight a low moving north through the Yukon causes some additional vorticity to move southwest across the Fortymile Country towards the Upper Tanana Valley. When combined with the collapsing front, this feature is expected to produce widespread to numerous showers across the Fortymile Country. This same collection of features will cause increased northwesterly winds through the Upper Tanana Valley and bring that region some rain. As this earlier front dissipates late Saturday, higher pressure builds in from the Bering Sea. This higher pressure is being sourced from a large high pressure system in the North Pacific that has been pushing lows from the Western Pacific farther north towards the Bering Sea. The combination of it and the Arctic low has been the main driver of our weather for quite a while now. This higher pressure is short lived as another low moves through the Bering Sea towards the West Coast Sunday. This low reaches near the Gulf of Anadyr Sunday afternoon and continues northeast across the Chukotsk Peninsula and into the Chukchi Sea Monday morning. As this low pushes Sunday, strong southeasterly winds are expected along the West Coast. Gusts in the 50-60 mph range are possible near the center of this inflow over the northern Bering Sea late Saturday. A front begins to push east behind the low overnight Saturday. Considerable rainfall is expected along and following this front. Winds shift to the southwest behind the front and weaken somewhat, but a long fetch of wind is expected to push additional water into the Norton Sound leading to high surf Monday and Tuesday along the Yukon Delta and Norton Sound Coast. This front pushes east into the Interior bringing considerable rainfall to the Western and Central Interior through Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... At the start of the extended forecast period, Wednesday, pressure increases across the West Coast and Western Interior following the front that weakens and collapses over the Eastern Interior. A brief gap is expected between systems Wednesday before yet another low moves through the Bering Sea towards the West Coast Thursday. Confidence has increased in the track of this next system and pretty much all model ensemble members are showing a track south of the Bering Strait that turns towards Southwestern Alaska. Another round of moderate to heavy rain, gusty winds, and elevated water levels is expected along the West Coast with this next system, but these tracks are less likely to generate a long enough fetch to cause coastal flooding concerns. The influence of this next system is expected to be felt throughout the weekend with rain extending east into the Interior. The far eastern and southeastern Interior is the least likely to see notable rainfall from this upcoming low, but much of the rest of the Interior will see another round of wet weather. Coastal Hazard Potential... A low moves towards the Gulf of Anadyr Sunday and then further on towards the Chukchi Sea Monday morning. Winds shift to the south/southwest overnight Sunday into Monday. Persistent south/southwest winds through Monday and into Tuesday are expected to raise water levels across the West Coast. Levels are expected to peak above their normal high tide levels at around 1 to 3 feet above normal in the Yukon Delta, 4 to 6 feet above normal along the Eastern Norton Sound Coast, 3 to 5 feet near Golovin, and 2 to 4 feet near Nome. High Surf advisories have been issued for these areas. Elsewhere along the coast water levels are expected to generally be 1 to 3 feet above normal from Point Barrow west towards Point Hope, 2 to 4 feet from Kivalina to Kotzebue, and 1 to 3 feet once more from Deering to Teller. Special Weather Statements have been issued for these areas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Focus remains on the upper Tanana Valley as it continues to be the most active area in our region. Winds in the Alaska Range have picked up, leading to moderate southerly gap winds through the passes and chinooking. Winds in the Tanana Valley should increase through the afternoon as surface heating mixes higher, stronger winds down towards the ground. Gusts in the upper teens are expected through Saturday afternoon before dropping off overnight. Along with the gustier winds, relative humidity will fall into the upper 20s to low 30s and temperatures will peak in the upper 60s or low 70s. Isolated thunderstorms may develop over Fortymile country, White Mountains, and Yukon Flats Saturday afternoon. Sunday morning, winds in the Upper Tanana Valley turn northwesterly as low pressure shifts east and high pressure builds in over the Central Interior. The change in wind direction will result in a Tanana Valley jet which will support stronger wind gusts between 20 and 30 mph Sunday afternoon. The change in wind direction will weaken the chinook off the Alaska Range which will help reduce maximum temperatures and bump up relative humidity. Also, a front will travel southwest over Fortymile country and should provide light rain to the upper Tanana Valley. These showers may come with an isolated thunderstorm or two in the afternoon. Models are estimating the probability for a tenth of an inch of rain in the Upper Tanana Valley on Sunday at about 30%. Temperatures should peak in the low 60s with minimum RHs in the 50s for most areas. Monday, the pattern returns to more favorable fire weather conditions in the southern Interior as a ridge in the Bering shifts east over southern Alaska and another trough arrives in the Bering behind it. This will result in another round of widespread rain for the Western parts of Alaska and warmer and drier weather in the Interior Monday and Tuesday. Models are showing more than an inch and a half of precipitable water associated with this system, however the pattern does not appear favorable for delivering significantly wetting rains in the Upper Tanana Valley. && .HYDROLOGY... Several rounds of wet storm systems are expected to bring considerable rainfall to the West Coast, Western Interior, and parts of the Central Interior through the end of upcoming week. Despite this rain, river levels remain low and are not expected to rise to the point of becoming hazardous throughout the weekend. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...High Surf Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ822. High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 4 PM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ824. High Surf Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ825. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ801- 804-807-810. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ801- 817-850. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ802- 803-805-806-850-853-856. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ802- 806-853-854. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ808- 809-855. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ816. Gale Warning from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ816. Gale Warning from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ850. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ851. Gale Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ851. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Stokes SYNOPSIS...Stokes SHORT TERM...Stokes LONG TERM...Stokes COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...Stokes FIRE WEATHER...Troyke HYDROLOGY...Stokes  789 FXUS62 KMFL 222258 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 658 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 651 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon and into the evening. A couple of stronger storms are possible that could produce marginally severe winds. - A slightly earlier convective start and slightly lower dew points is expected to allow most areas to avoid heat advisory criteria. Peak heat index values could still reach 105-110F for short durations. && .UPDATE... Issued at 651 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 With the increasingly isolated nature of instability and the upcoming loss of insolation, the window for additional convective activity is coming to a timely end across the region as the one, two combo of overspreading cold pools and anvil debris act to suppress the threat of additional convective development outside of a few spotty locales. With shower and thunderstorm activity coming to a conclusion in short order, attention overnight will turn to the continuation of a robust bout of wildfire development and growth across the region even while isolated thunderstorms have propagated across South Florida yet again today. The development of a nocturnal inversion and stratification overnight may keep smoke close to the ground which could result in pockets of reduced air quality across portions of the western east coast metro. A new wildfire has recently been picked up on KAMX (Miami Radar) and has been documented by the Florida Forest Service just west of the intersection of Krome and US-27 in northern Miami-Dade County. This wildfire as well as several others actively burning in southwestern Miami-Dade County could produce smoke as they smolder overnight. This threat of reduced air quality and/or inland visibility will be monitored overnight. && .UPDATE... Issued at 835 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Surface to mid-level high pressure ridge is located over the far southern peninsula this morning, providing a light S-SW wind flow across the region. Current forecast is on track with regards to convection initiation, with seabreezes expected to push onshore by Noon. Initial development will likely occur around Lake Okeechobee and interior Palm Beach County where GOES-derived precipitable water (PWAT) values are running close to 2 inches, then spread southward along the seabreeze boundaries through 2 PM. The east coast seabreeze will be pinned closer to the metro/coastal areas especially in Palm Beach County but even down to the far western suburbs of Broward/Miami-Dade County, whereas the Gulf seabreeze will penetrate slightly farther inland where convection will fire between Lake Okeechobee and the Gulf coast. As the afternoon progresses, the showers and thunderstorms will tend to shift east concentrate over the Everglades and far western suburbs of SE Florida during the late afternoon and early evening. The bulk of the precipitation should remain over the Everglades, but the light wind flow means that thunderstorm outflows should be able to push towards the metro and Atlantic coastal areas and help to trigger additional showers/thunderstorms near or over the metro area. As indicated in the previous discussion, thermodynamic profiles will support a few strong wind gusts, along with the usual isolated pockets of 2-4"+ rainfall amounts. Heat index values will once again be near advisory levels this afternoon, but earlier onset of convection may preclude the need for advisories as indicated in the previous discussion. We will continue to monitor this closely throughout the morning in the event that trends show heat index values increasing faster than expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 There has not been much change in the pattern evolution for this weekend. From a synoptic standpoint, the ridge in the Southwestern US continues to strengthen and allows for increased jet dynamics to strengthen the trough over the Eastern Seaboard. The base of the trough is still not expected to make it into South Florida and the overall flow pattern will remain largely on the weaker side, but this enhanced troughing pattern is expected to keep a prevailing southerly/south-southwesterly flow pattern in place through the weekend. Therefore, with deep moisture advection continuing and elevated PWATs of 1.7-2.0" or even more in some areas, diurnal heating and sea breeze circulations each day will have the necessary ingredients to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. With the primary south to south-southwest flow, this will favor interior and Southeast Florida for highest rain chances this weekend as showers and storms are expected to be the most widespread in these areas. The most robust activity will occur in the later afternoon during peak diurnal heating and once the sea breeze boundaries advance inland. Model soundings do highlight adequate SBCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg as well as inverted-V signatures and steep low level lapse rates leading to DCAPE values of 1000-1200 J/kg, so there will be an outside chance for an isolated severe storm or two via gusty winds again both days this weekend. Otherwise, the primary hazards will continue to be heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flooding in poor drainage areas, and sub-severe strong wind gusts. High temperatures this weekend will remain in the low to mid 90s. The deeper moisture will also keep dew points in the mid to upper 70s for most areas each day, thus maximum heat index values are anticipated to remain elevated up to the 105-110F range. With the expectation of some increased cloud cover and an earlier initiation time for convection to develop, have opted to not issue a Heat Advisory today, which will end the streak of 13 consecutive days with at least a portion of the region being under a Heat Advisory unless a short-fused one is issued later today. HREF probabilities highlight a 10-20% or less chance for heat indices to reach 105F or higher at any point of day, which is even lower for occurring over two or more consecutive hours. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 As the trough draped across the Eastern Seaboard starts to erode early next week, the local wind regime will start to shift back to what we typically see in the summer time here in South Florida with low level flow being dominated by the Atlantic sea breeze. This will cause diurnal convection to start focusing back over both the interior and Southwest Florida rather than Southeast Florida like has been observed recently. Starting Monday, the highest rain chances (60-80%) will begin to focus across Southwest Florida and this will last through the end of the long term period. Other than the rain potential, there is also potential for another Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to impact the area early next week, but guidance highlights this SAL breaking up upon it's arrival and thus it's influence on a return to hot conditions should be less than the previous round. The SAL could lower rain chances for a day or two, but with this being a thinner layer that clears out much faster, not expecting there to be any days with limited to no rainfall across the region. High temperatures are projected to remain in the low to mid 90s each day. Overnight lows range from the low 70s across the interior and lake regions to the upper 70s and low 80s along the coastal metros. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 651 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Decreasing coverage of SHRA/TSRA will give way to VFR and dry conditions during most of the overnight period before a resurgence of SHRA and isolated TSRA may materialize along the east coast tomorrow morning. L/V winds overnight will enhance out of a light southwesterly direction at daybreak at all terminals before winds veer to a southeasterly component along the east coast. TEMPOs and amendments may be needed in future TAF forecasts for east coast terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Gentle west-southwest winds are expected across the Gulf waters this weekend with southeasterly winds across the Atlantic. Seas will remain at 1-2 feet or less each day across all local waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late each day and in the late night hours over the waters, which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 80 93 79 93 / 20 60 20 20 West Kendall 77 92 77 92 / 20 60 20 20 Opa-Locka 80 93 79 93 / 20 60 20 20 Homestead 79 92 78 92 / 20 50 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 80 92 79 91 / 20 50 20 20 N Ft Lauderdale 80 93 80 93 / 20 50 20 20 Pembroke Pines 81 93 80 93 / 20 50 20 20 West Palm Beach 78 94 78 93 / 10 50 10 20 Boca Raton 80 92 79 91 / 20 50 20 20 Naples 79 92 77 92 / 10 20 10 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...Hadi  758 FXUS63 KMPX 222258 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 558 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable temperatures expected through the end of the month. - Chance for rain in SW Minnesota Sunday night/Monday morning and a more widespread chance Monday night into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 This Weekend... High pressure overhead today allowed for clear skies this morning into the early afternoon. The heating of atmosphere then allowed for two thing to occur: diurnal fair weather cumulus clouds and mixing. Winds have varied across the broader region due to the winds aloft available to mix down. We have good mixing everywhere, but it is more from central Minnesota to western Wisconsin that has higher winds aloft and therefore higher winds brought down to the surface. As we start to cool this evening along the usual diurnal curve the skies will clear and the winds will become light. With clear skies and light winds we will see ample radiational cooling tonight. This will allow temperatures to fall into the mid 40s to mid 50s. For these cooler areas, east central MN and northwest WI, some fog formation is possible. Sunday during the day will be a similar setup to Saturday with the high pressure system starting to move out, but still present. Another day warming up into the upper 70s, but there are not as high of winds aloft as the upper air pattern shifts and it will therefore not be as gusty outside. This shift in the pattern will have a bigger impact on Sunday night. Temperatures will not cool as much over western Minnesota as clouds move in. This will provide for a wider temperature gap with lows near the SD/MN border near 60 and in western WI temperatures will fall into the 40s. These clouds are tied to a larger system over the High Plains. Some of the rain showers associated with this system could impact parts of the southern Minnesota River Valley Sunday night into Monday morning. Due to the time of day there is little instability, so rain showers are most likely rather than thunderstorms. Next Week... The main driver early in the week on Monday and Tuesday will be a shortwave moving across the Canadian Prairies. The associated surface low and its fronts will be the main source for lift driving the weather. The biggest question for us here continues to be moisture, as many forecast soundings continue to show lots of dry air to overcome. The timing of the frontal passage will limit much of the strong to severe storm chances. However a weak jet streak across North Dakota into northwest Minnesota (better shear) combined with a slightly earlier timing (more instability) could allow for some stronger storms in parts of west central Minnesota. For this reason SPC has a marginal severe risk out for this area. On the larger scale synoptic impacts there are still differences between the timing of the frontal passage and amount of moisture between ensemble members. For this reason any specific 6 hour period is hard to provide much more than a 40 percent chance. When the whole window is taken into account the grand majority of members provide at least some QPF. So bottom line, we will have to get into the higher resolution windows to gain more confidence on details but confidence on seeing rain across these two days has gone up. Past this it looks fairly quiet for the rest of the week with maybe some signal for something at the end of the week, but it is a little early to say much about that. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 558 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Diurnal CU is dissipating and wind gusts will subside in the first hour or two of the TAF. Light or calm winds tonight will remain light Sunday under clear skies. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR, chc -SHRA late. Wind SE 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR, chc -SHRA early. Wind SW 10-20 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NDC AVIATION...Borghoff  784 FXUS64 KSJT 222258 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 558 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Big Country, Heartland and Concho Valley areas this afternoon and again on Sunday afternoon. - There is a low (15%-20%) chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms, mainly across the Big Country, this afternoon and evening. - Hot and mainly dry weather will persist through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 111 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Big Country, Heartland, and Concho Valley until 7 PM this evening. A cold front is stalled near the Red River. Isolated showers are occurring in the vicinity of the front. High resolution models are indicating an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon as daytime heating occurs. This activity is then forecast to move south this evening, before dissipating by mid to late evening. Low end (15-20%) rain chances were continued across mainly the Big Country this evening. Any storms that do develop will have the potential of producing strong gusty winds. Overnight lows will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. An upper level ridge is forecast to be centered across West Texas and southeast New Mexico on Sunday. This will result in a continuation of the above normal temperatures. Highs will be in the upper 90s to near 108. A Heat Advisory was issued for the Big Country, Concho Valley, and Heartland, where temperatures are forecast to reach or exceed 105 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Saturday) Issued at 111 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Very hot and dry conditions are forecast through the extended forecast through much of next week. An upper level ridge will remain centered across southeast New Mexico through the middle of the week. This will result in highs in the upper 90s to near 106 for much of the area, so Heat Advisories are likely for the Big Country, Concho Valley, and Heartland through at least the middle of next week. Portions of the Big Country, especially the northern counties, may reach 110 degrees Monday afternoon, so Extreme Heat Warnings may be needed. The aforementioned upper level ridge begins to slowly shift west by the end of next week, which may result in slightly "less hot" temperatures. Still, temperatures will continue to remain above normal, in the upper 90s to near 103. West Central Texas will be on the eastern periphery of the ridge late next week, as the upper level ridge shifts west. This may allow for the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late next week. For now, continued low end (15-20%) rain chances as confidence remains low. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 557 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours across all terminals. Winds will be generally light and southerly, becoming light and variable overnight into Sunday morning. Expect the hot and dry conditions to persist. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 81 106 81 107 / 10 0 0 0 San Angelo 77 104 77 104 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 75 103 73 103 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 77 105 77 106 / 10 0 0 0 Sweetwater 80 106 80 107 / 10 0 0 0 Ozona 74 99 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 76 103 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan- Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Jones-McCulloch-Nolan-Runnels- San Saba-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for Brown-Callahan- Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Jones-Mason-McCulloch-Nolan- Runnels-San Saba-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...Daniels LONG TERM....Daniels AVIATION...TP