865 FXUS64 KMAF 222300 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 600 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 557 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Hot temperatures continue through the forecast period with little to no chance of rain. - Drink plenty of fluids and seek shade frequently as heat illnesses due to prolonged exposure to heat may occur. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Upper-level high pressure will remain the dominant feature across west Texas and southeast New Mexico through the remainder of the weekend. A weakness embedded in the ridge may initiate isolated to scattered convection along an outflow boundary to our north over the South Plains later this afternoon. CAMs continue to indicate that a few cells could approach our far northern counties late this afternoon or early this evening, so maintained very low POPs between 10-20% roughly from Gaines to Scurry counties, but most locations should remain hot and dry. Any storm that does develop or make it into the northern Basin will be capable of producing brief strong/erratic gusts and a few lightning strikes. The heat wave otherwise continues with highs this afternoon and Sunday afternoon reaching between 100-106 degrees over much of the region, except for readings in the mid to upper 90s over the higher terrain areas. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the northeast Basin and western Low Rolling Plains through Sunday evening, where afternoon highs range around 105 degrees with early morning lows near 80 degrees. Spend time in air conditioning or in the shade if outdoors, wear loose fitting, light-colored clothing, and drink plenty of water to stay hydrated. Remember to never leave people or pets inside a closed or locked vehicle. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Upper-level high pressure will remain in place across our region through the middle of the week before perhaps retrograding slightly westward over the Desert Southwest by late in the week. Even so, the ridge will continue to extend into southeast New Mexico and west Texas through Friday of next week, so hot temperatures will persist through the extended period. Highs each day will continue to range between 100-106 over much of the region, with the highest readings staying over the northeast Basin/western Low Rolling Plains, along the Pecos River Vally and along the Rio Grande. Overnight lows mostly range in the 70s, except for readings in the 60s over higher elevation areas. Weak shortwave impulses moving over the area within northwest flow aloft on the eastern side of the ridge could at least bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to portions of the area Thursday, but rain chances generally remain 20% or less at this time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 557 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in weak return flow, w/a few highs clouds. A few high-based cu are anticipated Sunday in the northeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 77 104 77 105 / 10 0 0 0 Carlsbad 73 102 74 104 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 76 103 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 74 101 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 70 94 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 72 101 72 103 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 64 95 64 96 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 77 102 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 77 101 77 102 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 75 103 75 104 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for Borden-Howard-Mitchell- Scurry. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...99  082 FXUS65 KFGZ 222302 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 402 PM MST Sat Aug 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Moderate monsoon conditions will continue through Monday, mainly along the higher terrain during the afternoon and evening hours. Then, as a high pressure system builds over Arizona, warmer and drier conditions are expected to develop by midweek as the flow of moisture northward into the region decreases. && .DISCUSSION...A 500 mb high pressure system located above west- central New Mexico is expected to slowly build westward by the middle of the upcoming week. In its current position, the high is supporting moderate monsoonal conditions as some moisture continues to be transported northward into northern Arizona, supporting shower and thunderstorms across and near the higher terrain during the afternoon and evening hours. Southerly steering flow will also push the developing showers and thunderstorms northward. This pattern is expected continue Monday, then as the high builds westward and over Arizona midweek this will slow the transport of monsoonal moisture and allow for drier and more stable air to develop over northern Arizona. This will lead to a decrease in the potential for showers and thunderstorms, along with allowing max daytime temperatures to climb a few decreases, especially in areas that have been experiencing increased cloud cover due to the current monsoonal pattern. && .AVIATION...Sunday 23/00Z through Monday 24/00Z...VFR conditions mostly expected, but brief MVFR conditions possible in heavier SHRA/TSRA. Scattered showers/storms through around 02Z, with greatest coverage along a KFLG-KSOW line and along the AZ/NM border. Isolated showers possible overnight. Another round of scattered storms Sunday after 18Z. Outside of gusty/erratic outflow driven winds, look for variable daytime winds 5-15 kts. OUTLOOK...Monday 24/00Z through Wednesday 26/00Z...VFR conditions mostly expected. Scattered afternoon/evening mainly high terrain -SHRA/-TSRA Monday, then coverage decreasing to isolated by Tuesday. Outside of gusty/erratic outflow driven winds, look for variable winds 10 kts or less. && .FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Expect daily chances for showers/thunderstorms, with greatest coverage across the higher terrain. Activity will ramp up around 11 AM MST each day, and continue through the evening hours. Storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, heavy rain, small hail, and frequent lightning. Outside of storm driven winds, look for variable winds generally 10 mph or less. Tuesday through Thursday...Drier conditions will gradually return, with activity becoming limited to the White Mountains Wednesday and Thursday. Daytime highs forecast to increase, reaching 8-15 degrees above normal. Look for southwest winds 5-15 mph each afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Schank AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  208 FXUS63 KLOT 222304 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 604 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated shower or storm possible (15-20% chance) this afternoon around Lake Michigan, and specifically northwest Indiana this evening and tonight. - Dangerous swimming conditions at Porter County beaches today will include all Indiana and Cook County Lake Michigan beaches late tonight and Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 It's a pleasant and quiet Saturday across the area with early afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 and diurnally-driven cumulus starting to fill in overhead. Up north, a handful of showers and a couple of thunderstorms have recently blossomed along the eastern WI lakeshore with higher coverage found farther north near the Door Peninsula and UP of Michigan. These developed as a potent vort max and digging trough axis swing across the upper Midwest. The cold advection aloft has allowed for an ample reservoir of instability to build around the region while plenty of broad forcing is around to drive scattered convection. Coverage will attempt to spread south over the next few hours and a few isolated showers/storms may attempt to go up over portions of far northeast IL and northwest IN before the end of the afternoon. A considerable amount of mid level dry air, however, should greatly limit overall coverage and make it largely difficult for cores to produce lightning. This evening, a secondary vort/backdoor cold front will drive down the windward side of the trough providing continued opportunities for showers and storms to develop over the lake during the night. The backed wind field should steer any evening/overnight activity into northwest Indiana. An isolated shower or two may even linger past daybreak into northern Porter County. In the forecast, maintained slight chances for rain and thunderstorms over and around the lake this afternoon which then focus into northwest Indiana for the evening and night. In addition to the precip potential, the added cooling aloft brought on by that secondary vort will further steepen up lapse rates over the mild lake waters such that waterspouts may develop over the lake this evening through early Sunday morning. With the trough ejecting to our east tomorrow, surface high pressure will slide into the region and bring quiet conditions to the early part of next week. Afternoon temperatures are forecast in the middle to upper 70s on Sunday and Monday and around 80 for Tuesday. A synoptic system is favored to move across the upper Midwest during the middle of the week and bring shower and storm chances to the area in the Tuesday night to Thursday window. A lot of uncertainty still revolves around this system, including if there may be any appreciable severe threat, so we'll leave it at that for now and keep an eye on model trends over the coming days. Doom && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 603 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Upper-level cyclonic flow centered over the central Great Lakes and the approach of a surface high pressure system from the northwest will serve as the primary influences on aviating weather through the TAF period. Gusty northwesterly winds this evening will quickly subside after sunset. Will have to watch for a 1-2 hour period of northeasterly winds at ORD/MDW/GYY in the 01-03Z timeframe associated with remnant outflow from weakening convection over Lake Michigan, but feel the threat of occurrence is too low for any mention in the TAFs. Otherwise, mixing after daybreak will facilitate occasional northwesterly gusts of 15-20kt before they subside at the end of the TAF period. Like today, a scattered to broken cumulus deck basednear 6000 feet is expected to develop tomorrow afternoon. Borchardt && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Beach Hazards Statement from 4 AM CDT Sunday through Sunday evening for ILZ103-ILZ104. IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 4 AM CDT Sunday through Sunday evening for INZ001. Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for INZ002. LM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for Wilmette Harbor to Calumet Harbor IL-Calumet Harbor to Gary IN. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Sunday for Gary to Burns Harbor IN-Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  245 FXUS63 KPAH 222305 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 605 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 20-40% chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. An isolated gusty strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out, with the greatest risk over southeast Missouri. - A 30-40% chance of patchy fog is possible early Sunday morning, especially across portions of western Kentucky and southeast Missouri. - Temperatures and humidity levels will be seasonable next week with a 20-30% chance of daily isolated showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A trailing cold front associated with sfc low pressure over the Great Lakes region is pushing south across the FA. While most of the CAMs have very little development along the boundary this afternoon, the NSSL/RRFS still support some development that is currently ongoing south of STL. Have increased NBM PoPs to a 20-40% chance across the southern counties where dewpoints will remain higher near 70 degrees. This translates to 3000 to 4000 J/kg of SBCAPE with about 35 kts of effective bulk shear. Combined with 1000 J/kg of DCAPE and 8.0 to 8.5 C/km low-level lapse rates, the main concern will be damaging winds where SPC has a D1 marginal. Overall, expecting coverage to be sparse at best, but the probability is the greatest over southeast Missouri. For tonight, a sfc ridge of high pressure begins to build south from Manitoba as a broad upper-level trough settles over the Ohio Valley with northwest flow. Clear skies will allow for the boundary layer to decouple, with a 30-40% chance of patchy fog. The greatest coverage is favored south of the Ohio River where the crossover temperature will be higher. Otherwise, the FA will be between a western 597 dm ridge over the southwest CONUS and a trough in the northeast that will send a series of shortwaves downstream through the week. Rain chances are pretty sporadic at a 20-30% chance as the timing is highly variable. Not seeing a strong signal for severe weather, but may need to keep an eye on Wednesday when a warm front lifts north. The heat and humidity will remain at seasonable levels for the latter half of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 602 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 With the exception of fog anticipated overnight at CGI, MVN, and PAH, VFR conditions are expected. Fog is progged to develop at the aforementioned sites around 08Z and last through around 12Z. Winds will be very light to calm overnight with clear skies. Tomorrow some high cirrus moves in during the day and winds are out of the northwest around 5-7 kts generally. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...HICKFORD  360 FXUS64 KFWD 222307 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 607 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures near or over 100 degrees will continue through next week, with the hottest days of the summer likely Sunday through Tuesday. - An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for parts of North Texas with a Heat Advisory across the rest of North and Central Texas, and these will likely be extended into early next week. - Hot temperatures and low humidity will contribute to increased wildfire starts this weekend through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through tonight) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Latest radar imagery show the earlier showers and thunderstorms that affect much of southern Oklahoma all day and oozed southward into our area have mostly dissipated. However, this activity has left thick high level cloud cover north of I-20 which has held temperatures down especially closer to the Red River. Based on this, have gone ahead and removed Jack/Wise/Denton/Collin Counties from the Extreme Heat Warning and put them in the Heat Advisory. Despite the cloud cover, highs should still easily reach well into the 90s in our north and 100s elsewhere - with the hottest temperatures expected in the EHW. Although an isolated shower/storm could pop up this afternoon, CAMs have backed off this idea in favor of the shortwave currently moving southward across Kansas/Oklahoma. As this system arrives tonight, CAMs such as the HRRR/HREF indicate isolated showers/storms could move southward out of Oklahoma into North Texas in the 03-09Z timeframe. Have adjusted pops to match this possibility. Otherwise, another warm night in the 70s/80s is anticipated areawide. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Forecast reasoning for next week remains unchanged from previous discussions. The strong upper level ridge centered over New Mexico/West Texas will shift closer to us from Sunday into Tuesday, before gradually shifting back to the west from Wednesday through the rest of the week. This pattern will give North and Central Texas three very hot days from Sunday to Tuesday with highs reaching the hottest of the summer so far into the 103-113 range. The Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory will certainly need to be extended through at least Tuesday of next week. Although a few isolated showers or storms are possible in East Texas on Sunday afternoon, the rest of this three day period will be hot and dry. From Wednesday into next weekend, the center of the H5 ridge will shift westward into Arizona with heights falling aloft and somewhat stronger upper level northerly flow developing over North and Central Texas. This pattern shift will "cool" our high temperatures down into the 98-104 range for the remainder of the week, while also bringing low rain chances each day. Don't get too excited, however, as most areas will stay hot and dry. Given the continued heat and lack of substantial rainfall, drought conditions are likely to worsen with a continued/increasing threat of wildfire starts. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 559 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Surface winds will remain southerly but will oscillate between SE and SW throughout the TAF period at D10 sites (generally 140-220). Winds will be light enough where there are no crosswind concerns, and no flow changes are anticipated with the prevailing wind. Between 00Z and 09Z there is a very low chance (~10%) for an isolated shower in D10, but probs are too low to include in TAFs at this time. Brief wind gusts of 15-25 knots will be possible due to areas of virga during this same time frame, but confidence in timing and location is too low to include in TAFs as well. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 105 83 107 85 / 0 10 10 0 Waco 105 81 106 81 / 0 10 0 0 Paris 100 76 103 80 / 10 20 10 0 Denton 103 81 107 84 / 10 20 10 0 McKinney 103 80 106 83 / 10 20 10 0 Dallas 105 84 108 85 / 0 10 10 0 Terrell 105 79 107 82 / 10 10 10 0 Corsicana 104 81 105 81 / 0 10 10 0 Temple 104 79 105 78 / 0 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 106 78 108 81 / 10 10 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-101>107- 122-123-129-135-141>148-156>162-174-175. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ100- 115>121-130>134. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION...Darrah  794 FXUS63 KDVN 222310 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 610 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather expected through the weekend. - Outside of a system centered around Wednesday, mainly dry conditions are forecast to prevail until late next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 As low pressure organizes over the eastern Great Lakes region, a large area of high pressure will set up over the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley. This will lead to beautiful late summer weather locally with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, comfortable humidity, and overnight lows in the 50s! && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to continue through much of the next week with some operational models showing a transition to more zonal flow across the CONUS to end the next week. Although there are numerous disturbances moving through the flow passing near the area, the next more widespread chance (20 to 30%) for showers and storms appears to be late Tuesday night through Wednesday when a stronger shortwave moves across the region. Any rainfall amounts will be light through the middle of next week. Monday is expected to be the coolest day of the period with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. High temperatures the rest of the week are forecast to be in the lower to mid 80s. Tuesday night onward, low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 609 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 With sunset the boundary layer will decouple with winds of 5 knots or less through sunrise. After 16z/23 some diurnal cumulus will begin developing with winds of 5-10 knots. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Uttech LONG TERM...Cousins/Uttech AVIATION...08  710 FXUS63 KLSX 222310 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 610 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pleasant and mostly dry conditions are expected through the upcoming week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Northwest flow continues aloft across the region. A ridge is bringing hot weather out west while a trough over the Great Lakes is bringing considerably cooler weather in the east. At the surface, high pressure is pushing south into the Northern Plains, with winds out of the north across our region bringing in drier air. As this high nudges further south overnight we'll see winds die off and temperatures drop in the fresh dry air mass. Lows tonight will dip into the low to mid 60s, with some upper 50s possible in the cooler spots. Sunday will be one of the coolest days of this air mass with highs only reaching into the low 80s. Some mid and high level cloud cover will contribute to those lower temperatures. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 This week we continue in some flavor of western ridging and eastern troughing, keeping our area in the northwest flow in between. Showers and thunderstorms rotating around the ridge stay largely west of our area, keeping us mainly dry through Tuesday with temperatures eventually making a modest rebound back into the mid to upper 80s. The initial eastern trough weakens and lifts into the Canadian Maritimes by midweek, but it gets replaced by a new trough arriving from around the top of the ridge. It's this trough that's probably the most interesting feature for our weather this week. It initially arrives in the Pacific Northwest tomorrow but moves into the western Great Lakes on Wednesday. As it does so, it will slide another cold front southward through the middle of the country, pushing through our area Wednesday or Wednesday night. This represents our best chance of rain this week, though those chances aren't particularly high at this point. Most of the forcing from the trough passes by to our north while the better moisture and instability remains further south. NBM PoP remains quite low, generally 20 percent or less, but if we look at the low resolution ensemble guidance we see that 50 to 60 percent of these members produce measurable rain in the 24 hours ending Wednesday night. It's the timing and location uncertainty that's holding PoP lower at this point, but this does represent our best chance of rain locally this week. Wednesday's front may knock temperatures back a few degrees, but guidance is in general agreement that the western ridge weakens and broadens later in the week, nudging its influence eastward. This would nudge us back toward warmer temperatures, but not as extreme as we've seen recently. We'll also have a few other opportunities for rain as shortwave troughs round the edge of the ridge even as it approaches our area. However, confidence in the timing and track of those waves is even lower than for Wednesday's trough, so daily rain chances remain fairly minimal in the current forecast until that confidence changes. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 606 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Northerly post-frontal winds will continue to usher cooler, drier air into the region though the TAF period, limiting aviation concerns. That said, there is a narrow band of isolated showers dropping SE through central IL that could bring a very weak shower to UIN over the next few hours or the STL metro terminals between 04Z and 06Z. Lightning is not expected with these showers. Otherwise, the only concern is the threat for some river valley fog at SUS, CPS, and JEF. I'm not confident that those conditions will materialize, so I've just included a mention of 6am BR at those sites. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kimble LONG TERM...Kimble AVIATION...Kimble  699 FXUS64 KCRP 222310 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 610 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 608 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Heat Advisory from 1PM to 7PM. - Major to Extreme risk of heat-related impacts continue into next week with peak afternoon heat indices around 110 - Daily elevated fire weather conditions over the Brush Country && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A high that is located around the Four Corners region, will meander south-southeastwards slightly by next week. This will promote very dry rain free conditions outside of occasional isolated seabreeze convection daily. After some analysis, the decision was made to issue a heat advisory for the Coastal Bend extending into the Victoria Crossroads. This will be due to air temps already around 90 degrees at 10 AM, dew points in the mid to upper 70s, and the expected lack of cloud cover with relatively weak winds. Heat indices will be up to 112 through this evening. Expect these conditions to persist through the next week. Therefore we will continue to monitor for short-fused heat related products. We could see heat indices near 115 by midweek. This translates to moderate to predominately major HeatRisk conditions, though some areas of extreme HeatRisk will be possible in the Brush Country. We strongly encourage the practice of heat safety in these conditions. Take frequent breaks and remember to stay hydrated, check those backseats, and avoid long exposure in these temperatures. For more information be sure to check out weather.gov/heatsafety. Late next week, guidance is hinting at the potential for a disturbance to sneak around the eastern periphery of the ridge. This could combine with some returning moisture to provide some relief. We will continue to hold our breath on this possibility due to it being so far out unfortunately. In the meantime, stay cool everyone! && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 608 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions will persist through the TAF cycle, with only brief periods of MVFR visibility and ceilings for ALI and VCT from 09Z-13Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Light to moderate (BF 2-4) onshore breezes will continue through the period, with occasional fresh (BF 5) breezes possible during the late afternoon/evening hours, especially south of Port Aransas. Seas are expected to remain around 2-3 feet. Rain chances will remain near zero into next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 76 97 77 96 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 74 104 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 79 106 77 105 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 73 103 73 102 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 81 93 81 93 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 77 106 75 105 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 74 100 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 80 91 81 91 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ234-242>247- 342>344-346-347. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NP/92 AVIATION...LS/77  944 FXUS61 KGYX 222312 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 712 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes since the previous forecast cycle. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Unsettled weather is expected through Sunday night, but no widespread significant rainfall amounts are anticipated. 2. Isolated rain chances Monday and Tuesday under a lingering upper level low. Tranquil conditions by midweek, and loose signals for increasing humidity late week ahead of another system. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Mainly cloudy skies will persist through the remainder of today with an increasing chance for a few scattered showers, especially across western ME. Temperatures will remain nearly steady into the lower to middle 70s in most locations. Latest forecast guidance and upstream observations continue to indicate that marine fog/stratus will push inland overnight, especially across western ME south of the foothills as well as the NH Seacoast. It will otherwise remain cloudy with a few scattered showers possible at times with overnight low temperatures into the 50s to near 60 degrees in most locations. Closed low pressure will trek across southern Quebec on Sunday, sending a series of fronts across New England. Our region will be within a weak warm sector with partial clearing allowing high temperatures to warm into the middle to upper 70s with dew points into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. A negatively tilted H5 trof axis will arrive during the afternoon into the early evening, acting as a catalyst for stronger flow aloft and upward vertical motion. Latest CAMs continue to indicate that MU/MLCAPE will increase into the 500-1000 J/KG range with 0-6km bulk shear of generally 35-40 kts. Cool temperatures aloft will support marginally conducive mid-lvl lapse rates, thus supporting the potential for a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms. The primary threat will be strong to locally damaging winds but hail cannot be ruled out within an stronger updrafts. The greatest threat window looks to be between 2-8PM with eastern portions of the CWA the least at play given SE sfc flow. Sunday night will feature a continued chance for a few widely scattered showers along with fog as overnight low temperatures fall to within a few degrees either side of 60 in most locations. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A closed upper low will continue to meander from southwest to northeast Quebec Monday through Tuesday night. This feature will lead to plenty of clouds to start the work week as we remain in persistent cyclonic flow aloft. While widespread significant rainfall is not expected, there should be some isolated to scattered showers (hit or miss) at times and a locally heavy downpour is possible. There may also be enough breaks in the clouds for at least some instability to develop Monday and Tuesday afternoons so a few thunderstorms are possible. Shear would be sufficient for a few stronger storms if updrafts can become strong enough. Gusty winds would be the primary threat. The cutoff low then kicks out in the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe as upper level ridging approaches from the west, promoting dry weather and warming temperatures. The ridge then passes overhead quickly and the next system approaches late in the work week and possibly into the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through tonight: Marine FG/stratus will move inland tonight, bringing IFR-LIFR restrictions to most TAF sites. Valley FG is also likely. Scattered SHRA are possible. Winds will be light out of the ENE. Outlook: Sunday: Fog scatters out as rain showers lift across the area. Some improvement to MVFR and VFR is possible by evening. TSRA is possible between 2-8PM, mainly across inland terminals and any storms will be capable of locally strong winds and possible GR. Sunday night: Continued improvement in conditions, except local LIFR in valley fog. Monday: Local MVFR or lower possible in showers. Monday night: VFR conditions expected. Tuesday: Local MVFR or lower possible in showers. Tuesday night and Wednesday: VFR conditions expected. Thursday: Mainly VFR but local MVFR or lower in showers late in the day. && .MARINE... Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA thresholds thru the period. Will have to watch the overnight period, when areas of fog and low stratus may develop ahead of an approaching warm front. Those foggy conditions are expected to lift out by late Sun. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hargrove/Tubbs AVIATION...Clair  989 FXUS61 KRLX 222312 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 712 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 712 PM Update... Aviation discussion update for ~00z TAFs. 514 PM Update... Expanded the Severe Thunderstorm Watch to cover portions of southern West Virginia and our northeastern Kentucky counties. 158 PM Update... A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for portions of southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia this afternoon for storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Severe weather potential grows in earnest this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. Storms will be capable of produce damaging winds, hail, and heavy downpours that may lead to flash flooding. 2) In the wake of the front, a stretch of dry weather settles into the region alongside a brief cool down in temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... 514 PM Update... The severe thunderstorm watch that goes until 9 PM tonight has been expanded to include portions of southern WV and all of northeastern KY. This is a conditional risk as previous rounds of storms have weakened instability some across the area. HRRR and RAP still show pockets of 2,500 to 3,500 CAPE across the area in locations where storms have not moved through yet. These will be areas to watch for pop up strong to severe thunderstorms as another round is projected to move through this afternoon and evening. 158 PM Update... Earnest shower and thunderstorm development is underway across the Ohio River Valley out ahead of a cold front slated to pass overhead tonight into Sunday morning. An unstable airmass preceding the front has yielded optimal conditions for cumulus to quickly develop further into scattered showers and storms. With destabilization quickly arising, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued in collaboration with the Storm Prediction Center and neighboring offices. This Watch currently encompasses portions of southeast Ohio and north-central West Virginia, where severe weather may be observed within the next few hours. Additional expansion of the Watch is not out of the question for the southern half of the forecast area, but will continue to monitor the evolution of storms to determine how the rest of the afternoon and evening will shake out. Storms preceding the front today will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail, and heavy downpours that may lead to flash flooding. While some soil recovery has occurred in locations who recently faced a multitude of days featuring flooding, additional rainfall could invigorate further hydro impacts across the region. Storms will be progressive in nature, which should help to alleviate a response from instantaneous rainfall rates, but locations would then be susceptible to any training effects that may set up through the course of the evening. Convection marches into the post-sunset timeframe, but will gradually diminish with the progression of the front overnight. Precipitation will then bank up along the northeast WV mountains by early Sunday morning and wrap up altogether by daybreak once the front has completed its passage through the mountains. KEY MESSAGE 2... In the wake of the cold front, Sunday will feature the start of dry weather that stretches into the start of next week. High pressure settling into the Ohio Valley will yield a push of dry air, alongside much cooler temperatures. Daytime highs will span the 60s along the mountains and 70s to low 80s in the lower elevations, while overnight conditions will feature low temperatures tumbling down into the 50s and 60s. Next opportunity for precipitation arrives for the second half of the work week, when a warming trend instigates diurnally driven showers and storms over the CentralAppalachians. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue into the evening, with a line of strong to severe storms moving across northern and central WV. This will impact PKB, CKB, and EKN. Gusts between 40 and 50 knots are possible with this line of storms. IFR conditions or lower are possible with any storms. Expecting valley fog and low stratus formation to be prominent tonight with projected clearing overnight and precipitation from today. It will be most dense across the river valleys, i.e. sites CRW, PKB, and HTS. IFR or lower is expected with fog and low stratus. One caveat that may hinder fog formation will be light surface winds. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR by ~13-14z Sunday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of storms may vary from the forecast through tonight. Restrictions from fog and low stratus may vary tonight into Sunday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L M L H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M L AFTER 00Z MONDAY... IFR conditions possible in low stratus and fog Monday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05/LTC AVIATION...LTC  013 FXUS64 KLUB 222313 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 613 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 606 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening especially to the east of I-27. - Unseasonably hot temperatures will continue over the next several days. - Stronger breezes could result in elevated fire danger on Sunday and Monday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Upper air analysis highlights mainly northerly flow aloft in place over the region today, with an increase in midlevel moisture also noted as evidenced by scattered morning shower activity in vicinity of the Red River. A diffuse surface trough axis is also in place roughly along a line from near Amarillo towards Childress, and this troughing is progged to drift slowly southward through this afternoon and serve as a focus for thunderstorm development after about 3 PM. Most model solutions agree that storm coverage will be higher today than was observed yesterday, given the more plentiful moisture in place aloft along with large-scale support of a few modest shortwave disturbances and some jet-level difluence visible on water vapor imagery just to our northeast. After initially developing over the SE TX Panhandle, scattered outflow-propagating storms are expected to move south-southwestward through the rest of the afternoon and evening, although REFS/HREF probs generally keep the highest rain chances to the east of I-27. A couple of severe storms are certainly possible today, given very steep low level lapse rates and slightly improved deep-layer shear compared to days past. Very strong wind gusts and some large hail may occur with the strongest activity, as well as brief downpours. Regarding temperatures, most areas east of I-27 will exceed 105 degrees both this afternoon and again on Sunday as the ridging aloft slowly shifts eastward, with highs near 110 expected over the SE TX Panhandle. As such, Heat Advisories remain in effect for roughly the eastern half of our forecast area through the remainder of the weekend. Storm chances trend much lower for Sunday as the upper high pushes our plume of moisture mainly to our east, although a stray storm or two may still develop Sunday afternoon over the southern TX Panhandle. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Monday is still on track to be the hottest day of the upcoming week as the core of the ~596dam H5 ridge centers directly overhead. Highs near or just above 105 degrees are likely on the Caprock, with temperatures currently forecast to reach as high as 113 degrees over the SE TX Panhandle and adjacent Rolling Plains. Models have trended a bit faster with the southward retreat of the upper high Monday evening, with some shortwave energy possibly bringing a few late evening storms to the southern TX Panhandle, although a dry forecast is favored at the moment. Temperatures will remain well above normal Tuesday through late week, but will be a bit cooler compared to the intense heat of early week. Deterministic and ensemble guidance both favor a suppression of the upper ridge farther to our southwest midweek and beyond, with the resulting northwest flow aloft resulting in a more favorable setup for daily evening storm chances during the Tue-Fri timeframe. However, it is still too early to say with much confidence whether any beneficial rainfall will occur with this pattern shift. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites. A cluster of thunderstorms and a gusty outflow is currently impacting KPVW. Northeasterly winds up to 30 mph will be possible with these thunderstorms. This cluster is also expected to impact KLBB in the next hour or two. Winds at KLBB will remain from the south to southwest until the cluster reaches the terminal. Winds will shift to the northeast following the passage of the outflow. Light to moderate rain can be expected with these storms as well. These storms should clear both KPVW and KLBB around 3-4Z. The cluster of storms has cleared KCDS, however could see some erratic winds as these storms move away from the terminal. Once storms clear the terminals, winds are expected to shift back to the southwest through the overnight hours and through Sunday afternoon. Hot temperatures are expected again tomorrow, especially around KCDS. Check density altitude. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-030>032- 035>038-041>044. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ024>026- 030>032-035>038-041>044. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...10  196 FXUS62 KTAE 222315 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 715 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 712 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Daily chances of showers and storms continue each day. Rain chances are lowest on Sunday, then increase through the workweek. The strongest storms are expected to produce wind gusts of 40-60 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rain. && .UPDATE... Issued at 712 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Convection is lingering a bit later than expected and is developing a bit further north closer to the actual front. Nevertheless, expect it to be winding down over the next 2 to 3 hours. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Scattered thunderstorms will develop through the rest of this afternoon, mainly along and southeast of a line from PAnama City to Tifton. This is where a weak surface trough is located, and this combined with the sea breeze will lead to slightly better coverage of showers and storms to the east. There's plenty of instability for the storms to work with this afternoon, but DCAPE is a mixed bag. It's lower ahead of the trough with a more moist atmosphere, and higher behind the trough where we're expecting lower coverage of storms. But, there is a rather tight gradient, so storms that form closest to the trough could have the better potential for strong wind gusts of 40-60 mph. Storms will wane after sunset. Some patchy fog is possible late tonight into early Sunday morning, mainly north of I-10. Then we await the arrival of a weak cold front sliding into our area on Sunday. Some drier air will make it into our northernmost areas tomorrow afternoon, keeping the better rain chances near the sea breeze or right along the front. There is some discrepancy in the hi- res guidance regarding coverage of storms during the afternoon hours. If storms can get going tomorrow afternoon, there will be good instability and some mid-level dry air to work with for some strong wind gusts in the strongest storms. Otherwise, it will be quite hot with many areas in the mid to upper 90s. But, the slightly lower humidity will keep our heat indices mostly in the 100-107 range, though a few places could peak around 108-110. Coverage of these higher heat indices is not enough to issue a Heat Advisory, however. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Heading into the upcoming workweek, we'll have a large ridge over the southwest US with weak disturbances riding up and around the ridge. That unfortunately places us in the northwest flow regime aloft, which can lead to round of more organized showers and storms in the form of MCSs. Thus, rain chances will increase next week to near or above seasonal normals, but exact timing of these disturbances is hard to pin down. If organized MCSs develop, then chances for strong to potentially severe storms would increase. Summertime heat and humidity will continue to roll along otherwise with highs in the lower half of the 90s and heat index values of 100- 107 each day. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 712 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Convection should be winding down for the evening over the next few hours. Some spots of low ceilings/fog may be possible overnight, but confidence is a bit too low to include for now. Additionally, expect some sparse convection tomorrow afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Gentle to occasionally moderate southwesterly flow will continue over the waters for the next several days. Scattered showers and storms are possible each day, mainly in the overnight and morning hours, decreasing in the afternoon. The main exception will be for any clusters of storms that move off the coast next week during the late afternoon or evening hours. Seas will remain around 1 to 2 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Generally light west to southwest transport winds will continue through the next several days. Dispersions will remain good overall each afternoon, though pockets of high dispersions are possible near the I-75 corridor Monday into Tuesday as mixing heights increase. Isolated storms are possible Sunday with increasing coverage of storms again Monday and Tuesday. Gusty, erratic winds and dangerous lightning strikes will be possible. Some drier air moves into the area Sunday before moistening back up again Monday into Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall . If the storms are slow-moving, they could produce several inches of rain in a short period of time. This would lead to some nuisance to isolated flash flood concerns, particularly is low-lying or poor drainage areas. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 74 98 75 97 / 10 20 10 60 Panama City 78 94 79 92 / 10 30 20 40 Dothan 73 98 74 95 / 0 20 10 50 Albany 72 98 73 96 / 20 10 10 40 Valdosta 72 97 73 96 / 20 20 10 20 Cross City 74 93 74 95 / 20 30 20 30 Apalachicola 78 92 79 91 / 20 20 0 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Young LONG TERM....Young AVIATION...Merrifield MARINE...Young FIRE WEATHER...Young HYDROLOGY...Young  094 FXUS63 KIWX 222314 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 714 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - 20-30% chances for scattered lake effect rain showers downwind of Lake Michigan tonight through Sunday. - Dangerous swimming conditions persist through the weekend on southern Lake Michigan. - Below normal temperatures and much lower humidity Sunday through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1237 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A typical early fall-like weekend is ahead with clouds, showers, breezy conditions, and cooler temperatures. A low pressure system is located over northern Lower Michigan with its attendant cold front positioned just west of IN-15 currently. Scattered showers and isolated storms can be seen on radar this afternoon, especially along and east of I-69, where a 500 mb shortwave is aiding in convective development as the front pushes east. Can't rule out an isolated strong storm or two (especially in northwest Ohio) as there is an area of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 700 J/kg DCAPE across northern Indiana and northwest Ohio but the likelihood of organized severe weather is low given marginal shear of only 20 kts and poor low/mid level lapse rates. In addition to showers and storms, a deepening pressure gradient on the backside of this system is expected to generate gusty northwest winds throughout this afternoon and evening. Northwest winds will be sustained around 10 to 15 mph with gusts as high as 25 to 30 mph until sunset. Northwest cyclonic flow and delta Ts of ~14C (water temps ~24C, 10C at 850mb tonight) should produce at least a weak lake effect response tonight with scattered showers overnight into Sunday morning in the vicinity of Lake Michigan. Showers should gradually increase in coverage across northern Indiana downwind of Lake Michigan into the afternoon on Sunday. It will be breezy again out of the northwest on Sunday and then light winds return Monday and Tuesday as the pressure gradient eases. Did bump up cloud cover and lower temps for tomorrow as this pattern typically produces more lake effect clouds downwind of Lake Michigan than the NBM picks up on. Dangerous swimming conditions are ongoing for southeast Lake Michigan beaches and are expected to continue through Sunday. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for La Porte and Berrien counties through 11 PM EDT Sunday. High swim risks are expected both days with northwest winds generating 3 to 5 ft waves. Strong rip and structural currents are also expected! If your weekend plans include heading to the beach, heed all warnings from lifeguards and stay out of the water! A dry, continental airmass from central Canada moves in later Sunday as high pressure builds across the Midwest and Great Lakes. Much lower humidity and several days of slightly below normal temperatures will make for refreshing early fall-like days Sunday through Tuesday with highs in the mid 70s and dew points only in the low to mid 50s! Get the pumpkin spice lattes ready for the crisp mornings ahead as lows Monday and Tuesday morning will only be in the low 50s! Wednesday is a bit warmer (highs 75 to 80 degrees) and features the next chance for rain and storms. A similar setup, although not as pronounced as today, is likely with another upper level trough over the Great Lakes and a surface cold front sweeping through. At this time, have maintained 20-50% chances for scattered rain and storms Wednesday, with the highest chances in the evening. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 710 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Gusty northwest wind will subside over the next few hours with a loss of daytime mixing, yet wind gusts return Sunday late- morning. Cyclonic flow behind departing low pressure has yielded a subtle lake effect response across Lake Superior and northern Lake Michigan. While confidence is low, guidance is keying in on a period of -SHRA near KSBN in the 12z window as a thermal trough aloft pushes through. As cyclonic flow persists Sunday afternoon, scattered showers are possible over northeast IN and northwest OH late in this TAF period. Confidence is very low on the coverage of showers, so, will pass this along for future TAF consideration. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...Brown  118 FXUS64 KLZK 222314 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 614 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 -Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the state this afternoon through the late evening hours. -Damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe weather hazard across Arkansas through tonight. -Very hot temperatures will remain in place across the southern half of the state through this evening. -Relatively cooler temperatures will be seen from Sunday through much of the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The continued trend of northwesterly flow aloft over Arkansas will remain. An upper lvl shortwave progged to move over the state will allow a weak front to drop down into Arkansas by early afternoon and track southward across the state. The airmass ahead of this advancing weak cold front will be hot and humid with plenty of CAPE allowing for the expected development of scattered thunderstorms across the state between early this afternoon into late this evening. The Storm Prediction Center has designated the entire state of Arkansas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather today with the main hazards possible as damaging wind gusts and a few instances of large hail with any storm that does manage to become severe. Before the anticipated arrival of the weak cold front and associated scattered convection, high temperatures are expected to reach or exceed 100 degrees across most of central and southern Arkansas. A challenging high temperature forecast for today as locations across the state, especially in central and southern Arkansas will likely experience compression heating just ahead of the advancing front where temperatures will quickly, but briefly rise a few degrees before the frontal boundary overtakes a location. For this reason and overall trends during this heatwave have trended toward NBM 75% and NBM 90% values. For the remainder of the forecast period, from Sunday through the upcoming workweek, expect hot temperatures to persist with a few days of relief possible which would lower temperatures a tad to normal values for this time of the year as multiple weak frontal boundaries are anticipated to move across the state which will promote appreciable POP chances (expected on Monday) and modest POP chances (on Wednesday into Wednesday Night). && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 609 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Recent radar depicted scattered covg of convection acrs Cntrl to Ern AR near 23/00Z. Additionally, a primary outflow bndry was noted moving Swrd thru the metro area. Variable and gusty winds up to 30 knots wl be possible as this bndry moves thru, or w/ any local convection near terminals. Expect precip covg to dissipate beyond 23/06Z, w/ mainly high cloud covg persisting into Sun. Mainly Erly winds wl be seen acrs the FA on Sun. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 72 94 70 90 / 30 10 50 60 Camden AR 73 99 73 96 / 50 30 40 20 Harrison AR 68 89 68 89 / 20 10 60 30 Hot Springs AR 73 97 73 95 / 50 20 50 30 Little Rock AR 74 96 73 93 / 40 20 60 40 Monticello AR 73 98 74 93 / 40 30 50 50 Mount Ida AR 71 96 71 96 / 50 20 40 20 Mountain Home AR 69 90 68 87 / 20 10 60 40 Newport AR 72 93 71 89 / 20 0 50 60 Pine Bluff AR 72 95 72 91 / 50 20 50 50 Russellville AR 72 94 72 94 / 50 10 60 20 Searcy AR 71 94 70 90 / 40 10 60 60 Stuttgart AR 73 95 73 91 / 40 10 60 60 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening forARZ032-039-042>046- 052>057-062>069. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...72  263 FXUS63 KGRB 222316 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 616 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and storms (20-60% chance) north- central to eastern WI this afternoon. A strong storm could produce gusty winds and hail. - Dry weather returns Sunday and Monday, with a period of unsettled weather arriving for the middle of next week. - Slightly below normal temps this weekend, then a return to near normal readings for most of next week. Lows Sunday night may drop into the 30s north-central. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Near term through Sunday...Northwest flow and shortwave diving across this afternoon during peak heating will result in isolated to scattered showers through 7p, especially far northeast WI and on across Door County. While weak deep layer shear (less than 25 kts) limits overall storm organization and the severe threat, MLCAPEs up to 1000 J/kg, inverted-V soundings, very steep low- level lapse rates, and lower freezing levels will promote some gustier winds and small hail in the stronger showers/storms. Northwest winds will be breezy at 15 to 25 mph this afternoon, before diminishing this evening. Closer approach of sfc high will bring dry weather tonight into Sunday. Upper trough (cold air aloft) close enough to lead to another partly to mostly cloudy afternoon as fair weather cu blossoms. Northwest winds will be a little lighter on Sunday, but could still gust to 20 mph. Extended...Dry, but chilly Sunday night with high overhead and low PWATs allowing for good radiational cooling. MOS guidance already suggesting that typical cold spots up north could drop into the mid to upper 30s. Next chance for showers and some storms arrives Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon as a sharp mid- level trough and sfc cold front work through. If cold front is slower on Wednesday (ECMWF), there would be better chance for a few stronger storms over eastern WI that afternoon. Instability appears modest with this mid-week feature, keeping severe risk low. Machine learning is mixed at best on severe potential. Then, similar to today post fropa, steeper lapse rates and peak heating may yield another round of isolated to scattered showers and storms on Thursday. Temperatures...After the cooling this weekend into early Monday, temps return to near or even slightly above normal with highs mainly in the mid 70s to low 80s. Normal highs for the coming week start off in the 77-78F range, but by next weekend fall off into the mid 70s. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 616 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Upper level disturbances within a sharp trough axis are shifting over northern Lake Michigan early this evening and taking showers and thunderstorms with them. Lingering fair weather clouds above 6 kft are observed on satellite behind the shortwave. These clouds will likely dissipate with loss of heating by 01-02Z. With a modest pressure gradient, MOS guidance shows little to no fog threat, but will monitor as climatology would suggest some patchy fog is possible across the northwoods where rain occurred this afternoon. Fair weather clouds will likely build with daytime heating 15-16Z Sunday. Cloud bases will remain VFR (5-6 kft) which will gradually rise through the afternoon. Northwest winds will remain breezy on Sunday with gusts 14-18 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Northwest winds of 10-20 kts with gusts to 25 kts expected tonight into Sunday morning behind re-inforcing cold front. Have hoisted Small Craft Advisory for the central Bay and for Lake Michigan nearshore waters north of Sturgeon Bay. Strongest winds will be near Death's Door and Washington Island. Offshore winds will limit waves to 1 to 3 ft for most spots on the bay and nearshore waters, with any 3-4 foot waves staying in the open waters. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....JLA AVIATION.......MPC MARINE.........JLA  339 FXUS61 KBTV 222318 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 718 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 254 PM EDT Saturday... No significant changes have been made to the forecast. The SPC Severe Weather Outlook for tomorrow shows the region in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) with the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 254 PM EDT Saturday... 1. After a dry and seasonable afternoon, precipitation chances will increase across the region tonight through the start of the week. 2. Following a dry midweek period, the next chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms arrives in the late Thursday to Friday timeframe. && .DISCUSSION... As of 254 PM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1: After a stretch of dry and seasonable weather the last few days, shower chances will return later tonight through the weekend. The main feature driving precipitation chances is a large upper level trough approaching from the Great Lakes. A frontal boundary associated with the parent low will move through tomorrow afternoon, driving the chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon. Model guidance shows modest instability tomorrow afternoon, with CAPE values of 500 J/kg or so depending on the location, although there is some uncertainty as to how much cloud cover lingers through the morning and inhibits afternoon heating. While it's not the most impressive environment, there should be enough instability, shear, and forcing to drive thunderstorm development tomorrow afternoon. SPC currently shows nearly all of the forecast area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather tomorrow, meaning that a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, with possible hail and strong winds as the primary threats. The most likely time frame for thunderstorms will be from noon through about 7PM, so be sure to monitor the forecast if you have any outdoor plans. Storms looks to be progressive, limiting any hydro concerns at this time, especially given the dry weather the last few days. Current rainfall forecasts generally show about 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain across the area, with lower amounts near the International Border and higher amounts possible within any thunderstorms. For the start of the week, the region will remain in broad cyclonic flow, will will allow for linger showers on Monday and Tuesday, especially across the higher terrain. This cyclonic flow will also lead to some lake effect showers off Lake Ontario, with increased shower chances expected across northern New York during this time period. Temperatures will be on the cool side, with highs only climbing into the 70s, with some locations in the Adirondacks struggling to climb out of the upper 60s. KEY MESSAGE 2: Long wave troughing appears to remain over the eastern US later next week, with the base of the trough to our west. As such, the pattern will be somewhat unsettled with chances for showers returning late in the week. The low pressure track is strongly favored to be well to our north into central or northern Quebec, so widespread heavy rain or strong wind is not on the table, and deep layer shear appears limited for severe storms at this time. Of the latest ensemble scenarios, ones with a bit more amplified trough than the mean upper level heights show 0-500 millibar shear probabilities exceeding 30 knots at a greater than 30% chance (rather than close to 0%). Probable hazards for this system would be fairly widespread, general thunderstorm potential associated with the system's cold front, which may be thermodynamically strong. Machine learning and other ensemble guidance does suggest seasonably high instability for late August could be present, with a slight preference for stronger variety thunderstorms as you go southward (roughly 5% chance of severe weather per GEFS). With a faster timing of an incoming cold front, this threat may be limited to Thursday, and a slower timing would suggest Friday would be a day to watch for thunderstorms, especially in Vermont. The latest guidance has trended perhaps a little more towards the later timing, consistent with an occluding low pressure system and associated slowing eastward progress of a cold front. For now, a slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday evening, and slight chance to chance Friday afternoon in most of the region, seems reasonable at this point. Given the amount of outdoor activities anticipated on Friday and large scale setup for thunderstorm potential, this will be a period to keep a close eye. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 00Z Monday...Conditions are mainly VFR, although some lower MVFR ceilings are encroaching on KRUT. As southeast low- level winds increase, that layer may scatter out at times. At least some mixing overnight will likely maintain 3-8 knot across the region, and it will help slowly bring in moisture that should result in lowering ceilings at KMPV and KEFK. It may also bring brief LLWS at KMSS, through 12z, but it's not noted at this time. After sunrise, rising condensation levels should bring those areas back to VFR ahead of the main region of lower ceilings associated with an occluding frontal boundary. This boundary will bring showers and a few embedded thunderstorms as well. The exact timing of precipitation is challenging with little consensus, and there could be waves of rain involved. Highest confidence is in southeast to south winds increasing to 8 to 11 knots sustained with a few gusts 15 to 20 knots. Thinking showers and storms will be most likely 15z-22z, but used PROB30s for most due to uncertainty with respect to timing. Storms could produce lightning, strong gusts, and heavy rain reducing ceilings and visibility. Behind the boundary, ceilings are likely to drop towards 1500-4000 ft agl, and winds will begin to shift south to southwesterly beyond 00z. Outlook... Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer DISCUSSION...Kremer/Kutikoff AVIATION...Haynes  328 FXUS64 KTSA 222318 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 618 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1211 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Temperatures above normal with continued periods of high heat stress will continue through week. The possible exception being around active thunderstorm activity. - Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected through Monday, bringing areas of locally heavy rain and strong gusty winds, but most areas will see only minimal rainfall. - Areas of localized fire weather concerns will persist. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Near term focus will be storm development through the afternoon and the most likely corridor will be downstream of wave currently passing across SE KS. Satellite trends show Cu field developing into NW AR and likely marks the onset of lift impinging upon an increasingly unstable airmass. Short term guidance has been in good agreement with storms developing across either far E OK or NW AR by mid afternoon and spreading ESE through the evening. This idea seems in line with observations. Slightly stronger flow aloft and ample instability will support a risk of severe weather with the focus becoming more east of the local region by early evening. Further west precip coverage will remain low, however ample cloud cover and cold front pushing south behind the SE KS wave are all helping keep temps below advisory levels at least for today. Overnight there may be renewed elevated convection along a corridor atop the stalled frontal zone. Considerable uncertainty in this placement but mentionable chances for far eastern OK and NW AR through Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Saturday) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Hot temperatures return Sunday as cloud cover and precip chances appear lower during the day. Thunderstorm complex may develop Sunday evening into the overnight and spread across the area with the most likely zone currently seen as far eastern OK and western AR through Monday morning. Hot temperatures and high heat stress conditions will remain a concern through early week as any relief from persistent rain will be localized. Potential for minor heat relief and a chance of shower and storms may return by mid to late week as the upper ridge now appears to remain anchored across the western CONUS leaving NW flow aloft through the Plains. This would allow a chance for a weak cold front to move into the region and at least bring a chance of rain and slightly cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Ongoing cloud cover will continue to move south/southeast and clear TAF sites early evening as a surface frontal boundary pushes into southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas. Mostly clear conditions continue into the early morning hours Sunday before scattered/broken high clouds spread back into the CWA for the day. There is potential for a few mid clouds Sunday as well for southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Winds through the period remain between northeast and southeast across the TAF sites. VFR conditions should persist through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 74 97 76 101 / 0 10 30 0 FSM 74 99 75 100 / 20 20 30 20 MLC 73 103 78 107 / 20 10 20 0 BVO 71 95 71 99 / 0 10 40 0 FYV 70 94 70 94 / 20 20 60 20 BYV 69 91 69 91 / 10 20 60 20 MKO 72 97 74 102 / 10 10 30 0 MIO 70 93 71 96 / 0 20 60 20 F10 72 99 76 106 / 10 10 20 0 HHW 74 102 78 104 / 20 10 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...20  483 FXUS63 KDLH 222320 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 620 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few sprinkles are possible this afternoon among the daytime clouds today. Clearing tonight may lead to areas of dense fog. - The next chance for showers and storms will be Monday night through Tuesday. Severe storms are possible particularly Tuesday afternoon with the passage of a cold front. - Seasonal, dry conditions return mid next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Diurnal cumulus clouds occurring this afternoon will continue, and some of these clouds may produce sprinkles, particularly in the Minnesota Arrowhead. Breezy northwest winds will gradually lighten toward evening as surface high pressure settles over the region. For tonight, mostly clear skies and light winds will allow for radiational cooling. Patchy fog will develop after midnight, with best chances for areas of dense fog in the Iron Range. Sunday will bring pleasant and quiet weather across the area with mostly sunny skies as surface high pressure remains in control. Cool low temperatures in the 40s are expected overnight. Moving into Monday, shortwave ridging aloft will maintain dry conditions through most of the daylight hours. Moisture will begin returning later in the day as an upper-level low approaches from the northwest. Elevated CAPE with a warm front will lead to chances for showers and storms Monday night into early Tuesday. The environment will be less conducive for convection Tuesday morning as warm, moist air continues to be advected into the region. Tuesday afternoon and evening, a cold front will move through and will help convection redevelop for eastern portions of the Northland. Some storms could also be severe as instability maximizes with sufficient wind shear ahead of the front. Showers and non-severe thunderstorms will remain possible into Wednesday as cyclonic flow lingers behind the departing system. Precipitation will gradually taper off from west to east as the low pressure area shifts into the Great Lakes region. High pressure and northwest flow aloft return for the second half of the work week, bringing a return to dry conditions across the Northland for Thursday and Friday. Precipitation chances remain below fifteen percent through the end of the period. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions this evening are expected to deteriorate early Saturday morning with MVFR to IFR fog expected for most terminals. Fog should burn off after sunrise, with VFR conditions and light winds expected through the day. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Northwest winds of 5 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots will continue this afternoon on western Lake Superior before easing tonight. Waves will remain around 1 to 2 feet or less. Light and variable winds are expected for Sunday. No marine headlines or thunderstorm threats are expected through Monday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Breezy northwest winds this afternoon will gust up to 20 to 25 mph with minimum relative humidity values dipping into the 30 to 45 percent range. Winds weaken significantly on Sunday, but minimum relative humidity will drop a bit lower to 30 to 40 percent. A few spots could dip below 30 percent. Relative humidity remains low Monday before moisture increases midweek, when chances for scattered showers and storms return. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLHWATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KML AVIATION...Levens MARINE...KML FIRE WEATHER...KML  539 FXUS63 KICT 222320 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 620 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lingering showers and thunderstorms will exit southeast KS this afternoon - Additional storm chances, especially at night, tonight into next week - Temperatures remain near or above normal && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 As of 130 PM Saturday afternoon, the amplified midlevel pattern remains across the CONUS with troughing across the east and ridging across the west. This places the central Plains within a northwest midlevel flow regime. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms continue to move southeast with a remnant MCV. Behind this cluster, a wake low has developed across portions of eastern KS, yielding northerly winds at 20-30 kt with gusts near 35 kt. As the afternoon progresses, these showers and storms will depart southeast KS with mostly sunny skies returning area wide. Temperatures will quickly rebound into the 90s. An area of surface high pressure, currently from ND through northern NE, will slide into eastern KS this evening into tonight. This will result in easterly (upslope) low-level flow across much of the central high Plains. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected across eastern CO and WY this evening. Thunderstorms may gradually grow upscale and move east/southeast into the nighttime hours. Considerable uncertainty remains with the the eastern extent these storms will progress. Instability greatly decreases within the area of surface high pressure across eastern KS. In addition, the low/midlevel WAA is quite weak. Combining those two together suggest any storm activity will be on a weakening and decreasing coverage trend upon reaching central/eastern KS. The greatest potential for rainfall late tonight into Sunday morning appears to be along and north of I-70. Transitioning into Sunday, the area of surface high pressure will remain across eastern KS, yielding light easterly winds. Temperatures will also be notably cooler with highs ranging from the mid 80s to the low 90s. The forecast area will remain within a northwest midlevel flow regime into next week, as subtle perturbations eject into Plains on a near-daily occurrence. This will support at least small rain chances almost every night next week. In regards to the temperatures, the core of the midlevel ridge will remain southwest of the forecast area over the next 7 days. This should keep the hottest temperatures southwest of the state with highs generally in the low to mid 90s each afternoon. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions expected across the entire region for tonight with slight chances for storms to move across central Kansas during the morning hours on Sunday. Light easterly winds will switch to the southeast during the day on Sunday. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BRF AVIATION...CDJ  670 FXUS63 KARX 222323 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 623 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued dry and pleasant for the remainder of the weekend with highs in the low 70s to low 80s. - The next potential risk for showers and storms comes Tuesday/early Wednesday (20-50% chance) with rain not returning to the forecast again until next weekend. - Seasonable temperatures continue for next week with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Rest of Today - Monday: Dry and Seasonable We find ourselves solidly embedded in northwesterly flow this afternoon as an upper tropospheric trough digs over the Great Lakes/Ohio River valley and a paired meridional ridge builds along the Front Range. This upstream ridge slowly migrates eastward over the next 24-48 hours, with the ridge axis over the High Plains on Sunday and central Missouri River Valley by midday Monday. The net result for the region will be continued dry and pleasant conditions through Monday. Highs should top out in the upper 70s to low 80s with a Canadian fetch dropping dewpoints into the 40s and 50s. Not bad for late August! The only forecast concerns for this timeframe will revolve around any overnight/early morning valley fog, which looks to be confined to the Mississippi River tributaries tonight but could become more widespread Sunday night depending on how the upper level clouds pan out. Tuesday - Wednesday: Storm Potential Returns Medium range guidance continues to be in good agreement that our main window for precipitation in the seven day forecast will come between Tuesday and Wednesday mornings as a compact vort lobe crests the aforementioned ridge and slides across Minnesota and Wisconsin. There may be stronger mid to upper level unidirectional flow with this complex that could result in organized cell structures should the lower level thermodynamic fields line up. Early looks at some of the deterministic GFS forecast soundings reflect this notion with elongated NW to SE hodographs that would support all modes of severe convection. The devil is in the details at this stage in the forecast and, given the wide range of plausible outcomes, plenty can change over the next 2-3 days. Latter Half of the Week: Dry Start, More Active for the Weekend We return to northwesterly flow and dry conditions for the latter half of the week with no real signal for additional rainfall until next weekend as the ridge flattens and several waves push through. There is some signal for a more organized precipitation event in some of the longer range deterministic and ensemble solutions with some outliers depicting swaths of 1-2+ inches of rain for later in the weekend. That being said, these are the outlier (<10%) solutions and there is a wide spread in the track of this system at this range. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both RST/LSE taf sites through the taf period. Ridge axis will build over the area tonight allow for clear skies and light winds. However...near surface boundary layer moisture is lacking and a light northerly wind near the surface will inhibit any widespread fog to develop into the Mississippi River Valley. Low confidence fog will impact the LSE taf site after 06z. Lighter winds and VFR conditions will continue into Sunday. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Skow AVIATION...DTJ  663 FXUS63 KMQT 222323 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 723 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Spotty showers and storms continue across the central and eastern UP this afternoon. Light rainfall totals mainly less than a tenth of an inch are expected, with higher totals possible where heavier downpours or multiple rounds of storms occur. - Seasonable temperatures are expected through next week with the exception of slightly below normal temperatures Sunday and Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Afternoon water vapor imagery reveals quite nicely the midlevel trough dropping into the Great Lakes, with a surface low centered over Lake Huron. Steepening lapse rates courtesy of the resulting CAA into the region is aiding in the development of scattered convection over the central UP, with some additional spotty showers in the eastern UP. Day Cloud RGB shows plenty of glaciation over the south-central UP, and indeed some stray flashes have been observed already. That said, with little by way of shear, storms are coming up just enough to get a couple strikes, then falling back down again. With freezing levels at around 10kft and a -20C at around 20kft, an ambitious taller cell could perhaps make a run for some small hail. Otherwise, strong storms are not expected. Meanwhile, with a tight pressure gradient over the region as ridging expands eastward from the Northern Plains as well as decent mixing into the core of 20-30kt winds aloft, winds are turning becoming elevated this afternoon. NW wind gusts up to 20mph are becoming common, but higher gusts to 30mph will not be out of the question by late afternoon in the eastern UP. Temperatures peak cooler than in previous days, only in the upper 60s to lower 70s for most and possibly the mid 70s in the south-central. Precipitation tapers off this evening, followed by mostly clear skies overnight. Temperatures bottom out in the lower to mid 40s inland, and the lower 50s near the lakeshores. Still, with note a potential for some of our typically cooler spots to slip into the upper 30s, a la the NBM 10th percentile. By Sunday morning, much of the hi-res guidance favors some spotty shower activity over the north-central UP, perhaps due to cool upsloping flow. Breezy conditions continue for Sunday with NW wind gusts up to 20-30mph, while temperatures come in a couple degrees cooler; expect highs in the mid to upper 60s for most. Some interior spots likely will dip back into the upper 30s Sunday night under clear skies. High pressure moving in from the west keeps weather dry through Monday, likely through most of Tuesday as well before the next mid level trough moves through the region midweek. This brings back shower and storm chances for Tuesday night and Wednesday, then dry weather is favored the rest of the work week. Expect more summer- like temperatures to return this week, with highs ranging in the 70s to near 80 Monday onwards and lows generally in the 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 723 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period for CMX and IWD. As temperatures drop aloft lake effect clouds and showers will develop over Lake Superior on Sunday, potentially impacting SAW during the morning into the early afternoon. CIGs at SAW will be borderline VFR/MVFR during this time and likely fall to MVFR in any showers that impact the site. Confidence is still low on coverage and timing so kept the mention to a prob30. As mixing increases through the day expect winds to gust as high as 25kt at CMX/SAW from mid morning Sunday through the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Lake Superior - NW winds are on the increase this afternoon, already gusting to around 20-25kts over the eastern half of the lake so far. Higher gusts up to 25-30kts become more common into the late afternoon. Gusts approach 20 kts over the west. As winds become more northerly tonight, central lake superior winds increase to 15-25 kts; the stronger winds to 30 kts over the east persist. This holds into Sunday morning before winds gradually simmer down from west to east into Sunday night. This builds significant waves of 3-7 ft over the southeastern waters this weekend. Probabilities for gales to 35 kts are only between 15-30%, highest south of Stannard Rock and along the Marquette/Alger County shores Sunday afternoon. Wind gusts to 20kts linger over the eastern half of the lake Monday, then winds stay below 20kts Tuesday before the next system brings back winds up to 20-25 kts Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Northern Bay of Green Bay and northern Lake Michigan - NW wind gusts to 20-25kts become common this afternoon, persisting through Sunday. Winds fall back below 20 kts Sunday night, remaining below 20 kts through much of next week. Scattered showers and storms continue the rest of this afternoon, tapering off this evening. Dry weather then persists until midweek next week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ005-006. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LC AVIATION...NL MARINE...LC  681 FXUS64 KLIX 222323 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 623 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 618 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Dangerous heat continues with afternoon heat indices in the 105-113 degree range through the weekend. Warm overnight temperatures will offer limited relief. Those with outdoor plans should take precautions to avoid heat-related illness. Stay hydrated, wear light-weight and loose fitting clothes, and take breaks in the shade or air conditioning. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast during the mid to late afternoon hours Sunday and Monday. A few storms could become strong to severe, producing gusty winds, frequent lightning and brief periods of heavy rain. When thunder roars, go indoors. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Tonight through Monday, upper level ridging will remain in place over the area, and we will enter the "ring of fire" pattern. Southerly surface winds will continue to help advect warm air and moisture into the area, increasing the humidity across the region. Daily isolated to scattered showers and storms will be expected for the next few days. These storms will have the potential for frequent lightning and gusty subsevere winds (40- 50mph). These storms are not expected to be severe, based on recent model trends. The heat continues as ridging builds back over the area. Highs in the upper 90s to low 100s combined with heat index values in the 105-112 degrees range will be quite warm and uncomfortable. Heat advisories are in effect for Sunday and will likely be needed Monday and beyond. Be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if you will be spending time outdoors. MSW && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 High pressure continues to build over the area for the rest of the workweek. Southerly surface winds will continue to advect warm and moist air into the region, increasing humidities for the area. Conditions will be quite dry overall thanks to the upper level pattern with PoPs around 10-20% for the long term forecast. An isolated shower or storm will be possible daily during peak heating hours. The main risk with these storms where they occur would be frequent lightning and gusty winds (30-50mph). The heat will continue with persistent ridging building over the area. With highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values in the 105-110 degree range, it will be quite uncomfortable outside. So, be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if spending time outdoors. MSW && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 High pressure continues to build over the area for the rest of the workweek. Southerly surface winds will continue to advect warm and moist air into the region, increasing humidities for the area. Conditions will be quite dry overall thanks to the upper level pattern with PoPs around 10-20% for the long term forecast. An isolated shower or storm will be possible daily during peak heating hours. The main risk with these storms where they occur would be frequent lightning and gusty winds (30-50mph). The heat will continue with persistent ridging building over the area. With highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values in the 105-110 degree range, it will be quite uncomfortable outside. So, be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if spending time outdoors. MSW && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period with light winds and mostly clear skies. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast to develop during the mid to late afternoon Sunday and PROB30 groups have been included at all terminals for this potential. Given low confidence have generally kept any restrictions to MVFR levels at this time, but any of the heavier storms will be capable of resulting in temporary IFR conditions due to heavy precipitation and lower cigs. && .MARINE... Issued at 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Surface high pressure centered over the central Gulf will maintain a generally weak pressure gradient through much of the period. Northerly winds around 10 knots will become W then SW to start the week. A predominantly light southerly flow will set up by mid week and remain through much of next week. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible with winds and waves higher in and near this activity. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MSW LONG TERM....MSW AVIATION...DM MARINE...MSW  812 FXUS64 KAMA 222325 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 625 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 115 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Summer heat wave continues with impactful temperatures near or above 100 degrees through at least early next week. - Low chance (15-30%) for scattered storms capable of damaging wind gusts across the southern Texas Panhandle this afternoon. - Potential pattern change could provide slightly cooler temperatures and increased rain opportunities next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 115 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The weekend forecast remains focused on continued heat, as well another outflow boundary that could spark spotty thunderstorms this afternoon-evening. High temperatures are expected to stay roasting in the 99-109 range for a majority of the Panhandles this weekend, although today's boundary and cloud cover may keep temps a few degrees cooler across the north. Shower and storm chances return to the northern Panhandles tomorrow evening, but breezier winds will leave elevated fire weather conditions for a majority of the forecast area. Morning satellite and surface observations show a remnant outflow boundary from overnight convection currently progressing over the northern and central Panhandles, continuing to push south. Hi-res CAM trends stall this boundary along and south of the I-40 corridor through the day, serving to initiate scattered storms along and south of it. Much like the past couple of days, this activity would be spotty in nature, but new convective outflow boundaries will initiate random storm development through the evening (20% POPs along and south of I-40). Given forecast DCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg, downburst severe wind gusts would be the primary hazard with this activity. PWATs >1.00" are present as well today, so localized heavy downpours are also feasible for those lucky enough to receive it. Unfortunately, there is still very much the potential for this boundary to advance well south of I-40 into Lubbock's forecast area, which would keep a vast majority of the Panhandles dry. Many CAMs show the boundary curling back to the north over the central TX Panhandle though, which could keep some hopes for rain alive even if a majority of the boundary does stall further south. Sunday's storm chances primarily rely on a shortwave disturbance to impinge upon the nearly 600 dam H500 ridge of high pressure placed firmly atop the region. As we suffer yet another day of scorching heat, breezy southwest winds of 10-20 mph will keep much of the south and central CWA dry. In the mid-levels, a swath of better 700mb theta-e is forecast to be in place atop the northern Panhandles when a shortwave arrives out of eastern CO & NM, which should initiate scattered convection in the afternoon and evening hours. If this shortwave pushes further south though, some rogue activity could develop south of the Canadian River Valley (20-40% POPs north and central, 10-20% POPs south). Per usual, strong downburst wind gusts are the main concern, and drier air should keep the heavy rain potential on the lower side. Harrel && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 115 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Could the Panhandles truly see a pattern shift next week to provide more rain opportunities and heat relief? Several global models continue to suggest that the answer is yes, but don't get your hopes up for a widespread gullywasher or true "cool down". The work week will start off solidly dominated by high pressure, with triple digit heat holding steady. But long range data does show troughing over the Great Lakes region sagging southward by midweek, which would suppress high pressure further southwest over El Paso. This synoptic pattern would allow northwest flow aloft to provide better disturbances and weak fronts for the region, especially for the northern combined Panhandles. Ensemble members mostly agree this would increase rain chances each evening- overnight Tue-Thu, but despite favorable deep layer moisture (PWATs 1.0-1.5"), most members suggest rainfall totals wouldn't be terribly impressive (mostly 0.50" or less). Temperatures are progged to decline to the 90s Wed-Thu, but not for long as widespread triple digits are favored to resume through the end of the week. In summary, we have reason to be hopeful for better weather next week, but the expectation is that most locations are more likely to maintain relatively hot and dry conditions. Harrel && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Showers and thunderstorms south of Amarillo should come to an end in the next 1-3 hours and then a quiet night expected across the panhandles. VFR conditions expected through the night. Afternoon showers and storms should form again Sunday but to soon to put into the TAF. Will be able to better refine this during the morning. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ004-005- 008>010-012>015-017>020-317. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ015-018>020-317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...KP  782 FXUS64 KLCH 222324 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 624 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Area wide Heat Advisory in effect this afternoon and again on Sunday with max heat index values of 111 F. - Heat Stress Levels have increased to Extreme (level 4 of 4) for southeast Texas and Louisiana Saturday; this level of heat stress will persist through at least Monday. - Chances for rainfall are low and spotty for isolated showers and thunderstorms. Mainly hot and dry conditions are expected through Monday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 129 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Very weak troughing extending offshore this afternoon and evening will fill into Sunday becoming slack around standard atmospheric pressure ~ 1013mb. 22nd/18Z sounding illustrates a rather dry lower troposphere between the sfc - 800mb. However, the forecast does carry some late afternoon PoPs to account for any Seabreeze interaction with the northwest flow. Activity that does develops would appear to remain primarily sub-severe and isolated at best. That is a large change from Friday evening where measured instability (CAPE) was anomalously high in the 22nd/00Z sounding at 6699 J/KG*K and support robust updrafts across Acadiana yesterday. With the forecast trending mainly dry, sans the potential for late afternoon isolated activity in the short term, our main focus will trend toward hot temperatures and heat related impacts / illnesses. Upper 90's to low 100's with light winds will be the case through Monday afternoon. While drier air will be mixing down aloft, winds do turn back out onshore overnight and remain so into the early work week ahead. That influx of Gulf moisture will fight against mixing to keep dewpoints warm enough to support heat advisory criteria across the area through the weekend. A shortwave trough deepening southward, east of the Mississippi, will drive a frontal boundary toward the central/east Gulf coast into Tuesday morning before diminishing. Stronger surface ridging begins to migrate east over Eastern Seaboard. Meanwhile, troughing deepens south across the Southern Plains. However, because of the weak forcing and northwest flow on the forward side of the upper level ridge over southern New Mexico, blended guidance isn't too excited to account rain chances in the forecast, locally. Another impulse to the western flank of the shortwave trough extending across the midwest brings the Jet further south into the central Plains late Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures will continue to trend toward the mid and upper 90s, but chances for rainfall do increase Thursday onward as a new frontal boundary meanders south toward the ARKLATEX region. Weak upper level troughing also appears to deepen in the Gulf potentially supporting a more baroclinic environment toward the coast into the following weekend. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A few, small thunderstorms will continue to dissipate by 01Z. A weak pressure gradient at the surface will keep winds light and variable tonight into early Sunday with a more southwesterly component developing by 16Z through the afternoon. Ridging aloft will keep afternoon convection limited although with temperatures again expected to near or eclipse triple digits, the very unstable environment will allow some storms to develop after 19Z along the inland advancing sea breeze. Jones && .MARINE... Issued at 129 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Light onshore winds will continue for the next several days, and seas will range occasionally up to 2 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 129 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Although portions of the forecast area along Acadiana received a healthy dose of rainfall, much of the area has remained largely dry across far west Louisiana and Southeast Texas. No appreciable / widespread rainfall is in the forecast through the middle of next week ahead, currently. Given the hot and mainly dry forecast, KBDI values are expected to slowly climb. Afternoon minRH values will range 35-45% this weekend. The main limiting factor for aggressive fire behavior is a lack of wind, with speeds generally expected to stay below 10 kts. Regardless, caution should be exercised and outdoor burning is not recommended. Multiple parishes and counties have burn bans in effect. Please consult your local fire departments for more information. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045- 055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ027>033-044- 045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262- 515-516-615-616. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ180-201- 259>262-515-516-615-616. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30 AVIATION...66  789 FXUS65 KGJT 222324 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 524 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Monsoonal moisture and a robust disturbance will cause precipitation chances to become more widespread today. - Heavier rainfall today could lead to localized flash flooding over burn scars and susceptible terrain. - Temperatures gradually cool off for the weekend and into next week with a warmup late in the week, remaining above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1043 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ACTIVE THIS WEEKEND: A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms along the leading edge of a shortwave are moving through eastern Utah and progressing into western Colorado this morning, which models are not picking up on or initializing well with. This line was fairly active through the early morning hours in eastern Utah. This is likely due to added upper level support from a low pressure trough moving into the Pacific Northwest, allowing the flow to shift to more southerly and therefore pull up deeper monsoonal moisture last night into this morning and act on the instability already in place. This trough is also nudging the high pressure ridge eastward. Deterministic models are fairly consistent in showing this deeper moisture plume working its way across our CWA today with PWAT anomalies jumping to 160 to 180 percent of normal. Where the models differ is in terms of how robust or widespread the convection will be. The GFS is not as widespread but the hi-res CAMs, particularly the HRRR, seem to indicate a later start to afternoon convection likely due to this morning convection and cloud cover. After this morning wave moves eastward, afternoon convection looks to refire off the higher terrain, with coverage and more robust convection increasing late this afternoon into the evening hours as a robust shortwave moves through the flow providing added forcing and support. CAPE will be sufficient with around 500 to 800 J/kg with mixing ratios in the 5 to 6 g/kg range which is sufficient for heavy rain potential with any storms today. With the better steering flow, there is a good chance storms will impact some lower valleys as well late in the day. The deeper moisture in place today with the added forcing provided by the robust shortwave will increase flash flooding and debris flow concerns, especially over burn scars and susceptible terrain. Be weather aware and make sure you have a way to receive watches and warnings. Cannot rule out some convection continuing through the overnight hours but most activity should wind down by midnight or shortly after. On Sunday, the Pacific Northwest trough will have lifted out into Canada with the robust shortwave already out into the Plains, leaving us in a westerly flow as the shortwave and trough allow the high to lay over. We will still see residual moisture in place with another day of afternoon showers and storms, but without the added forcing, storms should be mostly confined to the high terrain. Flash flooding is still a concern over burn scars but looks to remain more localized on Sunday as there isn't a real focus for where the better chances reside. Highs this weekend will be cooler than previous few days with temperatures around 5 degrees cooler but still remaining 5 degrees above normal. NEXT WEEK: The high pressure and above normal moisture will remain in place through this coming week with the high slowly meandering back to the west across the Desert Southwest (south of the Four Corners) by mid to late week. Some shortwaves will move through the flow across the north up and around the high pressure through the Northern Rockies, providing a little lift for some afternoon convection each day but the focus seems to be over the high terrain with quite a bit of uncertainty as to the quality of this moisture with the heavy rain potential looking more localized as this moisture gets recycled under the high. PWAT anomalies slowly trend downward as this high shifts westward and drier air is pulled into the Great Basin. Daytime highs hold steady as we move into the coming week with highs around 5 degrees above normal and gradually increase towards around 5 to 10 degrees above normal by late week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 522 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact terminals through 03z before tapering off. These showers and storms are capable of producing gusty, erratic outflow winds, frequent lightning, and brief heavy rain. They are capable of dropping conditions to MVFR/IFR for brief periods of time. Outside of the influence of showers and storms, winds will be generally light and terrain driven, with high level clouds and VFR conditions prevailing. Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop tomorrow after 18z, starting over the higher terrain then moving into adjacent valleys. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MDA AVIATION...TGJT  884 FXUS62 KFFC 222326 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 726 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - A surface boundary will spark additional showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across portions of south-central Georgia. - Drier conditions on Sunday will be followed by a return to low daily rain chances for most from Tuesday onward. - Seasonal, less oppressive heat returns to North Georgia today and areawide by Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 An upper level longwave trough is extending from the central Great Lakes towards the south Georgia coast. As the axis of this trough continues to dig southeastward towards the Atlantic Coast, northwesterly upper flow behind the trough is progressively building over the forecast area. The movement of this trough is also advancing a surface frontal boundary further to the southeast. Dewpoints in areas behind the front are in the low to mid 60s while dewpoints ahead of the front are in the low to mid 70s. With temperatures rising into the low 90s this afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will be possible in east-central Georgia where more moist air remains ahead of the front. This evening, a weak wave will traverse the northwesterly flow aloft, advancing a secondary cold front towards far north Georgia. For the most part, precipitation associated with this front should remain north and west of the forecast area, though isolated showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in the far northern tier from sunset through midnight. Largely benign weather conditions are expected on Sunday. The morning will begin with low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s in north Georgia and low 70s in central Georgia. Patchy fog will be possible in the far northern tier in the early morning, dissipating shortly after sunrise. Aside from highs in the 80s in the far northeastern mountains, highs will be in the low 90s in north Georgia and mid 90s in central Georgia. Drier air will keep Heat Advisory criteria from being reached. A few isolated diurnally driven storms will be possible in the southern portion of our area during the peak heating hours, largely along and south of a line from Columbus to Macon. && .LONG TERM... (Monday morning through next Friday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Generally quiet weather is expected for the first half of the long term with a dry airmass in place. We'll also get a break from thunderstorms during the afternoon as well until Wednesday when winds become more southerly and we start to pull moisture back in from the Gulf. After Wednesday, a trough in the upper level flow will bring back the chances for afternoon thunderstorms. The most potent upper level dynamics will remain north of us, as the center of the low will remain in the Great Lakes region. Given slowly increasing temperatures however, we won't lack instability during the afternoon. This pattern will remain in place through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 719 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR through most of period. Sct to Bkn mid level cigs of 050 to 060 psbl after 5z. While chances are low at this time, a few stray showers or even a thunderstorm may be possible briefly tonight for north metro. Confidence too low to include in TAF. Winds generally W to NW at 5 to 10kts each day becoming light to vrb overnight at 3 to 6kts. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Low confidence precip chances and cigs 5z to 10z. High confidence all other elements. SM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 69 92 65 91 / 10 0 0 10 Atlanta 72 92 70 91 / 0 10 10 10 Blairsville 63 84 60 84 / 20 0 0 0 Cartersville 69 91 65 90 / 20 0 10 10 Columbus 72 95 72 92 / 0 20 10 20 Gainesville 69 90 65 89 / 20 0 0 0 Macon 71 95 70 93 / 0 20 10 10 Rome 69 91 65 90 / 20 0 0 10 Peachtree City 69 92 67 91 / 0 10 10 20 Vidalia 73 96 72 95 / 20 10 30 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...King LONG TERM....Vaughn AVIATION...SM  874 FXUS66 KMTR 222326 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 426 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 103 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Near to slightly below normal temperatures within the marine layer through the extended forecast - Warm and dry conditions persist above 1000 feet && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 103 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 (This evening through Sunday night) The Bay Area and Central Coast continue to be on the border of upper level troughing across Northern California/the Pacific Northwest. Practically, no major changes to the overall forecast. Ridging influence is more pronounced today with the marine layer compressed to around 1000 feet and less extensive morning stratus coverage. Stratus cover has dissipated everywhere except the San Francisco/San Mateo coastline with clear skies across the rest of the region. This will help temperatures to warm slightly compared to yesterday with interior highs in the upper 70s to 80s. Conditions will be warm above the marine layer/in the higher terrain where highs will peak in the upper 80s to low 90s. Cooler conditions prevail along the coast and SF Bay shoreline with highs in the 60s to low 70s. The Interior Central Coast remains toasty with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s expected across far interior Monterey County. Ridging effects remain pronounced heading into Sunday with the marine layer remaining compressed to around 1000 feet. This will bring a return of patchy stratus along the coast and SF Bay shoreline. Given the compressed nature of the marine layer, stratus should scatter out early again, likely by 10/11AM. Sunday's high temperatures will be comparable to Saturday's with highs in the 80s to low 90s across the interior, 60s to 70s along the coast and SF Bay shoreline, and in the 90s to low 100s across the interior Central Coast. Breezy conditions expected Saturday and Sunday over the marine environment, along the coast, and across favored mountain gaps/passes. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 103 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 (Monday through next Friday) The long term forecast is a rinse and repeat of the short term with upper level ridging and troughing fighting over our area. Troughing becomes more influential Monday and Tuesday with the marine layer deepening to around 1000-1500 ft. This should bring more substantial early morning stratus to the region and will see temperatures cool by about 5-6 degrees (low 80s to low 90s across the interior) while coastal temperatures stay relatively stable. Mid to late week, ridging again becomes more dominant with temperatures warming slightly and the marine layer/stratus coverage compressing. This will keep temperatures near to slightly above normal above the marine layer and near to slightly below normal within it through the extended forecast. Diurnally breezy winds continue each afternoon/evening along the coast, higher elevations, and across mountain gaps/passes. Looking farther out, the GFS and ECMWF continue to show a number of tropical systems developing across the Eastern Pacific. We will be keeping an eye on these systems as they develop to see how they interact with the upper level ridge and if any tropical moisture will extend towards the West Coast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 426 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 It's VFR except for patches of coastal stratus and fog /IFR/ along San Mateo County and Monterey County. Mid and high clouds, including wildfire smoke over the north Central Coast, are moving northeastward over the forecast area. Northerly to northeasterly winds develop over the North Bay tonight and Sunday morning. Coastal stratus and fog /IFR-LIFR/ redevelop tonight and Sunday morning. Vicinity of SFO...VFR prevails until stratus /IFR/ develops 12z Sunday. VFR returns 18z Sunday. West wind 20 to 30 knots until mid evening then decreasing to 8 to 15 knots tonight and Sunday morning. West wind increasing to 15 to 20 knots Sunday afternoon to mid Sunday evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR until stratus /IFR-LIFR/ redevelops late tonight and Sunday morning. Conditions improve to MVFR-VFR late Sunday morning and afternoon. West to northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 401 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Fresh to strong northwesterlies persist into Sunday morning as moderate seas prevail through the weekend. Marine conditions remain hazardous for small craft until Sunday night. Northern outer waters maintain elevated winds into Monday. Expect minor impacts to visibility along the Big Sur coastline due to smoke from the Timber Fire getting trapped south of Point Sur. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Navarrete Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  002 FXUS63 KFSD 222328 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 628 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The next better chance for showers and storms is Sunday night (50-70%). Locally heavy rain and isolated severe storms are possible. - Otherwise most days through next week will see highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 142 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A quiet night is ahead as high pressure drifts east. Southerly flow will develop in central SD later tonight and become more established across the area through Sunday. The light winds will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 50s, especially east of I- 29. The upper level wave responsible for the low level winds turning southerly will move into central SD tomorrow morning, and eastward and southeast from there through the day. With fairly stout low to mid level dry air, mainly an increase in cloud cover is expected through the morning. The exception will be south central SD where enough moisture may allow for 500-1000 J/kg of elevated CAPE, which will support some spotty showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather is not expected. Lift will gradually increase through the day into Sunday night, when a moderately stronger LLJ focuses on the area. Given fairly weak shear and CAPE values generally under 1000 J/kg, severe weather looks unlikely. However with a freezing level around 13 kft, locally heavy rain will be possible. Not much agreement on the location of the heavier rain with the models pretty inconsistently placing the mid level wave across the area. Some hints that the LLJ will focus somewhere on the SD side, but confidence is low. This wave moves out of the area on Monday but another weaker wave moves by to the north on Monday night and brings a small increase in warm air advection, which could spark a few showers and thunderstorms. Mainly northwest flow aloft continues Tuesday into next weekend. This will bring periodic small chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the week with little agreement on exactly when. Otherwise lows should mainly be from the mid 50s to mid 60s with highs in the 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 very patchy fog is possible late tonight into Sunday morning, mainly in river valleys and other low-lying areas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will move into south-central South Dakota late tonight and drift southeastward through the day on Sunday. Winds will turn light and variable near and east of I-29 heading into tonight. Meanwhile, areas west of I-29 will see winds pick up a bit out of the east and then southeast heading towards daybreak Sunday. Winds will pick up across most of the area through the day Sunday out of the south. Winds will get pretty breezy west of the James River Sunday afternoon, where gusts of 25-30 kts are expected. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...Samet  042 FXUS65 KPSR 222329 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 429 PM MST Sat Aug 22 2026 .UPDATE...Updated 00z Aviation Discussion... && .KEY MESSAGES... - High temperatures reach or exceed 110 degrees nearly every day through the next week and will be near daily records, while morning lows remain unusually warm. - Extreme Heat Warnings are in effect through next Saturday evening with daily Major to Extreme HeatRisk. - Afternoon and evening strong to locally severe thunderstorms will primarily favor higher terrain areas through the start of next week, with drier and less favorable conditions next week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Extreme heat will be the primary weather hazard through the short and long term forecast with very strong high pressure persisting over the region. Latest objective analysis still shows a 599dam anticyclone centered over northern NM, with H5 heights around 595-597dam over the local area. These magnitudes are at or above the 99th percentile of climatology. This will continue leading to well above normal high and low temperatures through this weekend. A drying and warming of the PBL was observed over the last 24 hours, as seen in observed soundings. This should result in high temperatures this afternoon 1-3 degrees warmer than yesterday, with lower deserts topping out around 112-116 degrees. A slight weakening of the subtropical high, and repositioning to eastern NM, Sunday into Monday will support a slight cooling of temperatures through Monday. Potentially more active showers and storms Sunday evening/night in south-central AZ may add a bit to the cooling into Monday. Latest NBM forecast highs for Sunday are around 108-114 degrees and then 106-112 degrees for Monday. Morning low temperatures will remain very warm, up to 5-10 degrees above normal, in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees across the lower deserts. The unusually hot temperatures will lead to widespread Major HeatRisk today and Sunday, with a decrease in coverage of Major HeatRisk for Monday. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through this weekend. Afternoon thunderstorms today should mostly favor the same areas as yesterday, but with the drying of the PBL, surface-based instability will be lower today. Mean mixing ratios are down 8 g/kg or lower and surface dew points at midday were mostly around 50-55 degrees. Lower instability means overall less intense updraft strength. This does not mean storms that develop cannot still become strong to severe. With the high T-Td spreads and high LCLs, DCAPE remains quite high (>1500 J/kg), which will promote strong to locally severe downbursts. Latest hi-res models favor isolated storms developing mostly along the mountains east of Phoenix and over terrain features south of Phoenix, with a focus mostly in central Pima County and portions of southern Maricopa and western Pinal counties. The storms to the south will be capable of sending dusty outflows northward heading into the evening, along with debris clouds and perhaps some weak showers or virga. Just like yesterday, the odds of an outflow popping off storms closer to or in Phoenix are low (5-10%), but it is still not impossible for 1-2 strong to severe storms to pop up with the right amount of forcing. Some ACCAS showers also cannot be ruled out across south-central AZ heading into Sunday morning within some of the debris clouds moving across the area. For Sunday, models continue to support a strong moisture return, albeit brief, in the evening and overnight hours. There are indications that instability will increase again south and southwest of Phoenix with storms again developing in similar locations with similar potential for strong to locally severe wind gusts. Then heading into the evening and overnight hours it looks like there will be a strong gulf surge as well as indications of perhaps a subtle shortwave/vort max moving up out of Sonora. This may increase storm survivability into the Phoenix area. NBM PoPs remain quite low despite this. The 12Z HREF shows a 30% neighborhood probability for dBZ>40 in south-central AZ, including Phoenix, Sunday evening/night. So, PoPs were increased slightly to at least show a slight chance (10-20%) across south-central AZ. Isolated storms are again forecast over higher terrain features for Monday afternoon and evening, but there may be stronger storms and greater coverage over some of the features west of Phoenix, like the Kofas to Harcuvar Mtns and portions of eastern Riverside County following the moisture increase the night before. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/... Ensemble members are in good agreement that by Tuesday drier air will start to filter back into the region as the subtropical high restrengthens and starts to retrograde westward back to over our region. By the middle of the week the center of the high will be straddling the AZ/NM border and by the end of the week the center of the high is forecast to be over AZ. As the high moves overhead, PWATs are shown to drop into a 0.9-1.2" range across our region and with warmer temperatures aloft and subsidence chances for thunderstorms will be poor across the region. The NBM shows that Tuesday and Wednesday there could be enough moisture around to support isolated thunderstorm chances for the higher terrain areas. But by the end of next week thunderstorm chances for our area shut off and will mainly be relegated to the Mogollon Rim. Unusually hot temperatures will be the main story next week. As mentioned above the subtropical high will slowly retrograde back over our region beginning on Tuesday, which will result in a quick warming trend for our area. The high is also expected to strengthen to around 596-598dam during this time. The combination of the center settling over our region and strengthening will result in temperatures heating up to around 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Afternoon highs (morning lows) are forecasted to be in the 112-118 (85-93) degree range across the lower deserts and in the 102-112 (75-85) degree range across the higher terrain areas. There is a good chance daily record highs and warm lows will be tied or broken and temperatures may even near monthly records. The increase in temperatures will also result in an increase in coverage of Major HeatRisk, back to widespread beginning Tuesday and then widespread Extreme HeatRisk by Thursday. Confidence in the heat forecast for next week remains high. So, the Extreme Heat Warning will continue through the workweek and has now been extended through Saturday, in collaboration with the Tucson office. The warning will likely be expanded to our entire CWA by the middle of the week with the development of widespread Extreme HeatRisk. && .AVIATION...Updated at 2325Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: The potential for a gusty outflow this evening continues to be the main aviation weather challenge through Sunday afternoon. Light westerly winds will persist through the early evening hours before the potential for an outflow to impact the terminals after 02-03z. If an outflow were to impact the area, it will most likely come from the south. Along with some gusty winds, there will also be the potential for some BLDU issues as well, especially at KIWA and KPHX. Otherwise, conditions should become more tranquil after 04-05z, with easterly winds likely during the overnight and early morning before the westerly shift late morning/early afternoon. FEW-SCT mid/high cloud decks will be common throughout the period, although a period of BKN coverage will be possible, especially this evening. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major weather issues under FEW-SCT mid/high cloud decks can be expected throughout the TAF period. Trends in the overall wind direction should be similar to the last 24 hours, with westerly winds this evening and overnight turning out of the southeast early Sunday morning at KIPL and winds fluctuating between the south-southeast and southwest at KBLH. Overall speeds will generally remain under 12 kts with some modest afternoon/early evening gusts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and seasonally dry conditions are expected nearly every day, through next week. Aside from a brief increase in moisture Sunday- Monday, minimum RH values each afternoon will be around 12-18% (15- 25% Sun-Mon). Temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees above normal through the next week, with lower desert highs eclipsing 110 degrees nearly every afternoon. There will be slight chances for storms each afternoon through Monday, but they will mostly favor the higher terrain areas. Drier conditions, with lower storm chances are expected by the middle of next week. Outside of thunderstorm outflow winds, winds will follow the typical diurnal tendencies with some modest afternoon upslope gustiness. && .CLIMATE... Record highs: Date Phoenix Yuma El Centro ---- ------- ---- --------- Aug 22 113 in 2011 115 in 1969 117 in 1969 Aug 23 114 in 2011 115 in 2011 116 in 1969 Aug 24 115 in 2020 119 in 1985 117 in 1985 Aug 25 113 in 2011 116 in 1962 117 in 1962 Aug 26 117 in 2011 115 in 2020 115 in 1981 Aug 27 114 in 2023 120 in 1981 117 in 1981 Aug 28 117 in 2023 118 in 2023 117 in 2009 && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Saturday for AZZ530>555-559- 560. CA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ562-565>567- 569-570. && $$ SHORT TERM...Benedict LONG TERM...Berislavich/Benedict AVIATION...Lojero FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich/Benedict CLIMATE...18  198 FXUS61 KBUF 222331 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 731 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The severe thunderstorm watch that had been in effect has been cancelled. Mid and high level blowoff from upstream convection combined with a lack of surface moisture to help with surface- based instability and weak shear managed to minimize the threat of severe weather through the evening. While a few cells attempted for a few scans of the radar, nothing really ever got going as the higher dewpoints only made it along the Lake Erie shoreline. Ongoing convection to the south of our area in NW PA would seem to be poised to clip Allegany and southeastern Cattaraugus counties in the next hour or two, but the environment will not be nearly as conducive for additional development of those cells as they enter our area and become displaced from additional ascent from an MCV in PA and better surface-based instability. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, some severe, are expected through tonight. 2.) Unsettled weather continues Sunday through Tuesday. Monday is expected to be the coolest day of the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, some severe, are expected into tonight. Cyclonic S'erly to SW'erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave troughs impact our region through tonight as a deepening mid/upper-level low wobbles SSE'ward from northern ON to the northern Great Lakes. At the surface, a consolidating and deepening low should wobble E'ward from the northern Great Lakes toward southeastern ON amidst mid/upper-level divergence and MSLP falls downstream of the low aloft. This low track should allow a warm front to continue drifting NE'ward through the Finger Lakes and the Eastern Lake Ontario Region through this evening and usher-in a somewhat warmer and moister air mass at the surface and aloft, while a cold front will continue sweeping E'ward from Lower MI and should reach far-Western NY by daybreak Sunday. Intervals of sunshine and low-level WAA ahead of and behind the surface warm front will allow highs to reach mainly the mid 70's to lower 80's late this afternoon. Lows tonight should reach the mid 50's to mid 60's around daybreak Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, especially late this afternoon through tonight as weak to moderate CAPE, including elevated CAPE is released by the following: moist isentropic ascent ahead of shortwave trough axes, low-level convergence/moist ascent along the cold front, and downshear gust fronts interacting favorably with ambient low-level vertical wind shear in the warm sector. Note: the warm front passage will likely continue to be accompanied by dry weather as pockets of dry air at the surface and especially aloft precede the surface warm front. Deep-layer bulk shear is expected to remain moderate and diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer is expected to yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate DCAPE through this early evening, west of roughly the Genesee Valley. Thus, severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging straight-line wind gusts are a concern in and especially west of the Genesee Valley. Steepening mid-level lapse rates associated with mid/upper-level cooling associated with the deepening low/trough aloft and resulting increase in MUCAPE in the hail growth zone may allow a severe storm or two to produce damaging hail the size of quarters. The severe storm threat should end by late evening, following the onset of boundary layer stabilization via nocturnal cooling. Note: lake- effect rain showers and thunderstorms are possible east and especially southeast of Lake Erie toward and especially by daybreak, as 850mb temperatures cool to near 10C over the ~24C lake amidst rich (i.e abundant/deep) synoptic-scale low-level moisture, sizable lake-induced CAPE/lake-induced EL's as high as 15kft to 25kft above lake level develop, and W'erly mean low- level flow veers quickly to NW'erly behind the cold front. Key Message 2...Unsettled weather continues Sunday through Tuesday. Monday is expected to be the coolest day of the upcoming week. Cyclonic flow aloft, mainly SW'erly on Sunday, should become W'erly to NW'erly Sunday night through Tuesday as the aforementioned mid/upper-level low wobbles E'ward from the northern Great Lakes toward southern QC through Monday and then NE'ward toward the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Tuesday. At the surface, the aforementioned low will weaken gradually as it wobbles NE'ward toward the Gulf of St. Lawrence and becomes vertically-stacked with the low aloft. The cold front should sweep E'ward through the rest of our CWA by early evening. Behind the front, a lake-aggregate surface trough should linger over/near the eastern Great Lakes through Monday before a surface ridge begins to build from the western Great Lakes by Tuesday. This weather pattern evolution at the surface and aloft will allow a cooler air mass to overspread our region behind the cold front and then linger through Tuesday. Daytime highs should reach mainly the mid 60's to mid 70's on Sunday. The coolest highs are expected in the higher terrain of Western NY. Daytime highs should reach only the 60's to lower 70's on Monday, when the core of the cooler air mass is expected to reside over our region. Slightly warmer highs, mainly in the mid 60's to mid 70's, are expected on Tuesday. Overnight lows should reach mainly the upper 40's to mid 50's Sunday night and Monday night. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of Sunday's cold front. A few of these storms may become severe roughly along and east of the Genesee Valley, where peeks of sunshine and daytime warming may yield weak to moderate boundary layer CAPE, steep low-level lapse rates, and moderate DCAPE amidst moderate deep-layer bulk shear in the warm sector. Behind the cold front, periods of lake-effect rain showers and thunderstorms are expected primarily east and southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario on Sunday through Tuesday as a sufficiently-cold/moist low-level air mass crosses the ~23C to ~24C lakes and sizable lake-induced CAPE continues to develop through Monday, but then begins to wane on Tuesday as a lowering/stabilizing subsidence inversion accompanies the building surface ridge. Shortwave trough passages preceded by SW'erly mean low-level flow should allow lake-effect showers/thunderstorms to impact locations generally northeast of the lakes, especially Lake Ontario, at times on Sunday and Monday, behind the cold front. Outside lake-effect showers and thunderstorms, additional rain showers are expected on Sunday through Tuesday as shortwave trough passages and attendant surface trough axes coincide with at least weak potential instability in the lowest ~1 km AGL. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface low pressure with an attendant cold front will pass the area overnight. Showers and a few storms ahead of this front will continue through the event, but organized severe weather south remain will south of our area. With the cold frontal passage this evening (after 00Z/Sun), widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will pass east across the area, causing ceilings to drop to widespread MVFR with a swath of IFR conditions across the western Southern Tier (impacting KJHW) and the higher elevations east of Lake Ontario. Wrap around moisture and cooler temperatures aloft in the wake of the front Sunday morning will support lake enhanced showers east of Lakes Erie and Ontario Sunday, which will maintain widespread low end VFR ceilings with MVFR ceilings within any lake effect showers and clouds east of the Lakes. Outlook... Monday...Periodic showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms with associated MVFR/IFR, with mainly VFR expected outside of any precipitation. Monday night through Tuesday night...Lake effect rain, mainly east and southeast of the Lakes with associated restrictions diminishing off Lake Erie Monday night and Tuesday and off Lake Ontario Tuesday and Tuesday night. Otherwise mainly VFR. Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Thursday...Mainly VFR, except MVFR/IFR conditions possible from scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Behind a departing area of surface high pressure, a modest southeasterly to southerly flow will continue through the day today. A deepening area of low pressure passing just north of the Lakes will push first a warm front (today) and later a cold front (Sunday) across the lakes...with showers and a few thunderstorms along each frontal boundary. Behind the cold front Sunday, an upper level low will bring an early taste of autumn with a brisk west wind developing within a decently strong pressure gradient and moderate instability over the Lakes. While initial southerly flow Sunday should bring Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions to the lakes Sunday, the southwest flow under the upper level low Sunday night through Monday night, and then westerly flow Tuesday, will likely continue the choppy waters on the Lakes with SCA likely. In addition to the brisk winds, there will be the potential for waterspouts with the development of sizable lake-induced instability as cool air associated with cyclonic flow around the upper-level low crosses the warm lakes. Greater waterspout potential will materialize as early as tonight over Lake Erie and Sunday over Lake Ontario. The waterspout threat should continue through Tuesday. However, expected thunderstorms over Lake Erie this afternoon into evening may produce waterspouts as well, especially if storms organize into a line. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday morning through Tuesday evening for NYZ001>007. Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday morning through late Monday night for NYZ010-019-085. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LOZ042>044. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LOZ045. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fries/Jaszka AVIATION...Fries MARINE...Jaszka  259 FXUS62 KGSP 222331 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 731 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Shower and thunderstorm trends updated based on radar and latest forecast guidance. The aviation forecast updated for the 00Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Isolated showers and thunderstorms cross the Piedmont early this evening. An isolated severe storm is possible until the storms move east. Additional isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across the mountains this evening. 2. Drier weather returns Sunday through early next week, followed by daily shower and thunderstorm chances returning Wednesday through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Isolated showers and thunderstorms cross the Piedmont early this evening. An isolated severe storm is possible until the storms move east. Additional isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across the mountains this evening. The first area of convection is winding down across the Upstate and NE GA but lingers across the NC Piedmont. A strong to severe storm with damaging winds remains possible until these storms move east of the area early this evening. A second area of isolated convection to our NW along a frontal boundary may move into the mountains later this evening but they should weaken as they move toward our area. Otherwise, expect clearing skies overnight with another round of mountain valley fog. Key message 2: Drier weather returns Sunday through early next week, followed by daily shower and thunderstorm chances returning Wednesday through Friday. The surface front should settle southward most of the way through the CWA by Sunday morning. Closed 500mb low will remain over the northern Great Lakes, only slowly progressing eastward into the St Lawrence Valley as vortices rotate through. The axis of the surrounding trough in turn makes slow progress across the Eastern Seaboard through the early week period; deep anticyclone will remain over the southern Rockies and Plains. NW flow should continue over our area in the low levels with westerly upper flow; some mixing of drier air should occur diurnally on Sunday, effectively pushing the front southward, and it then should stall over the Deep South by Monday. The upshot for our area still looks to be mostly sunny skies and minimal chances for convection Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will remain near normal though the humidity will be low. We may experience height falls Tuesday with another weak shortwave entering the eastern trough, so it is not out of the question the front will reactivate on our southern fringe, and allow some convective activity to develop along that part of our CWA border. However, most indications are we will remain on the cool/dry side of the front and humidity and PoPs are still forecast below normal. Height falls begin more earnestly Tue night into Wed as better defined shortwave enters the MS Valley and the front thus is more likely to shift northward. For Wednesday in turn we expect seasonably hot and humid conditions to return, with PoPs in the usual 20-30% range; chances increase Wed night and Thu as the trough interacts with the front. Though the large scale pattern looks likely to feature a western ridge and eastern trough through the end of next week, models differ as to whether a drying cold front will follow the shortwave. and for now the safest bet is to assume unsettled weather (high humidity and frequent chances for showers/storms) will continue to the end of the period, though temperatures will be advertised near or even slightly below normal. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Isolated convection should stay north of KCLT this early evening but could move close by. Have kept mention out for now but will amend if a cell approaches. Otherwise, VFR with winds becoming light this evening. Expect another round of IFR to LIFR fog/stratus at KAVL overnight despite some northerly wind. Can't rule out a restriction at KHKY but chance too low for the TAF. VFR expected elsewhere. A drier air mass moves in Sunday with no significant chance of convection and only some high based VFR Cu. Winds become N to NW through the day with low end gusts at KAVL. KAND will see a westerly wind. Outlook: No significant chance of convection until Wednesday with an even better chance on Thursday. Mountain valley fog and low stratus is possible each morning. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ JCW/RWH  273 FXUS63 KDMX 222331 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 631 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Generally quiet weather for the upcoming week, with daily high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid-80s. - Decent rain chances (around 50%) late Sunday night and Monday, otherwise only low and spotty chances for most of the week. - Early signs of a somewhat more active weather pattern next weekend, with a return of more persistent rain chances but any details still unclear at this range. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 An omega blocking pattern is attempting to set up across North America, but is not fully entrenched. At 500 MB a large ridge is entrenched across the southern High Plains and over toward the Four Corners region, bringing near-record warmth to parts of that area, and extending far northward into Central Canada. Meanwhile, two troughs are present with the western one just coming ashore over the U.S. Pacific Northwest, while downstream, another trough is digging from Hudson Bay down across Ontario and into the U.S. Great Lakes region. Iowa currently lies beneath the brisk northwesterly steering flow between the ridge and the eastern trough. At the surface, a large high pressure area is spilling down from the Canadian plains into the Midwest, heralding relatively quiet and comfortable weather for Iowa this weekend. High temperatures will range in the upper 70s to lower 80s both today and Sunday, with dewpoints generally in the 50s and 60s. This will make for a glorious weekend for most late summer outdoor activities. Tonight into early Sunday, as the ridge settles across Iowa and winds to light to calm beneath virtually clear skies, we should radiate nicely with temperatures falling into the 50s in much of the state. Some guidance outputs light fog around sunrise Sunday, however, most does not and given relatively dry soils and more organized winds right off the deck, as well as the sparsity of wispy fog that occurred this morning, do not believe probability or impacts are sufficient to justify adding it to the forecast for Sunday morning. During the day on Sunday, the Pacific Northwest 500 MB trough will begin to move east northeastward around the periphery of the High Plains ridge, which will begin to flatten the northward part of the ridge and allow a subtle shortwave impulse to overtop it ahead of the main trough. This shortwave will move over or near Iowa on Sunday night into Monday and bring a return of rain chances to our forecast area. Initially, there will be substantial dry air to overcome per forecast soundings, so while a few model solutions attempt to bring isolated showers into our western and southwestern counties late in the day Sunday, have held POPs out until later Sunday night when saturation may achieve sufficient depth to support rain chances. These chances will then continue during the day Monday before fading out as the shortwave moves away to the east. Instability will be very limited with this system so while scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast, severe weather is not currently anticipated. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 By Monday night the eastern 500 MB trough will have shifted over Quebec, while the western one crosses from Saskatchewan into Manitoba, then subsequently shifts east southeastward into the Lake Superior region by Wednesday. In Iowa this will be concurrent with a very light surface pressure/flow pattern, resulting in nebulous low rain chances at times from Monday night into Wednesday. As the 500 MB trough moves over Lake Superior, it will help push a large surface high pressure area down the northern High Plains and Midwest during this time, later bringing relatively comfortable and dry weather from around Wednesday night through Friday. The onset of the influence of this surface ridge will take the form of a modest trough, pushing through ahead of the main mid-level shortwave sometime around Tuesday night. Differences in timing and the sharpness of the trough lead to a high variability in model solutions, however, there does appear to be some potential for good destabilization on Tuesday afternoon/evening and also potential for moderate deep-layer (0-6 KM) shear of perhaps 30-35 KT or so. Again, there is significant variability in these solutions and much will depend on diurnal timing, but it is possible if the trough has enough low-level convergence and comes through during peak diurnal heating time, there may be a narrow window of opportunity for pulse storms with a severe weather threat late Tuesday. A more likely scenario, however, is that the trough comes through overnight with much less instability and/or weaker shear, or that the trough is too weak and low-level convergence is not sufficient to support stronger updrafts, or both. By next weekend, the 500 MB pattern should begin to shift just a bit, with the ridge flattening and shifting a bit toward the southwestern U.S., while a more zonal flow pattern sets up across the northern CONUS and Iowa. This would favor a somewhat more active weather regime in our region, with persistent rain chances likely returning. Of course that is still a week-plus out, but something to keep an eye on in the coming days. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 631 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Diurnal cumulus will continue to fade over the next hour or so, with VFR conditions expected through the period. There remains a low signal for isolated patchy fog development given some low level moisture, very light winds and clear skies. Confidence however remains low on where fog may develop, so have left direct mention out at this time and will continue to monitor trends. Clouds will gradually increase through Sunday as the next system approaches the area, though remaining dry through this current forecast period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lee LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...Bury  094 FXUS65 KBOI 222330 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 530 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and strong thunderstorms in south-central Idaho through this evening. Isolated showers and weaker thunderstorms elsewhere in western Idaho until sunset. Clearing in eastern Oregon. - Gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph from thunderstorms in south- central Idaho through sunset. - Dry and slightly cooler Sunday, then several degrees warmer again Monday with a chance of afternoon thunderstorms in southern areas. && .SHORT TERM /Through Monday Night/... Issued 213 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026 At 1 PM MDT scattered showers and thunderstorms were already underway in Owyhee and Twin Falls Counties, moving northeast. These will increase in coverage the rest of the afternoon and early evening, particularly in eastern Owyhee and Twin Falls Counties where monsoon moisture still exists. Meanwhile, a Pacific cold front has developed a band of light rain showers and isolated thunderstorms in Baker and Malheur Counties. The front and the showers/storms will move eastward into Idaho this afternoon and evening and help enhance the thunderstorms in south-central Idaho. Cooler and drier air will come in from the west overnight and Sunday, but a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms will develop again in Twin Falls County Sunday afternoon. Monday looks several degrees warmer again as an upper trough exits east, replaced by a weak upper ridge over Oregon. Mid-level moisture will again increase and lead to a 15 to 30 percent chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms in southern areas, while northern areas stay dry with increasing clouds in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/... Issued 213 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026 Troughing off the shore of Washington and Oregon will keep most monsoonal moisture east of our area. This will keep mostly dry conditions across the area, with a low chance (under 15%) of afternoon showers and thunderstorms across our far eastern zones. Otherwise, breezy conditions will set in with a slight cooling trend. Temperatures come Tuesday will be around 5-10 degrees above normal, cooling to near normal come Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z Sunday through Monday/... Issued 529 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026 VFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Coverage will continue this evening mainly in SW-Idaho. Thunder capable of brief heavy rain, hail, and erratic outflows to 40-50 kt. BLDU possible with outflows. High density altitude this afternoon due to heat. Surface winds outside of storms: Variable 5-15 kt, except SW 10-20 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt in E-Oregon through 03z. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S-SW 10-25 kt. KBOI...VFR. A 20% chance of thunderstorms this afternoon into evening. Thunderstorms capable of brief heavy rain, hail, and outflows to 30-40 kt. BLDU possible in outflows. High density altitude this afternoon due to heat. Surface winds: NW-N 6-12 kt this afternoon, becoming SE 5-15 kt tonight. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for IDZ401>403-421- 424-426. OR... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ670>672. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....CH SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....NF  165 FXUS65 KBYZ 222330 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 530 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms possible through the weekend. A few storms could be strong to severe, especially Sunday afternoon and evening. Localized heavy rainfall a threat as well. - Drier with seasonal temps next week with just an occasional chance of precipitation. && .DISCUSSION... Through Friday... An upper low moving onshore into the Pac NW is causing the ridge axis over the region to slowly shift eastward, bringing an increase in moisture from the south (PWATs 150-200% of normal). A shortwave moving into the region from the southwest will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area during the afternoon and evening, gradually decreasing into the late evening and overnight. Convection will linger into the early morning hours across the far east, where a low level jet is expected to develop. There could be a couple strong storms, with strong winds and small hail. With the high PWATs, any thunderstorm will be capable of producing heavy rainfall. The upper low pushes east along the US/Canada border Sunday into Monday, breaking down the upper ridge. As the low slides east, an associated cold front is expected to push through the area late Sunday. Areas west of Billings could see a period of elevated fire weather concerns on Sunday as pre-frontal conditions bring westerly wind gusts of 15-30 mph, with humidity down near 20 percent. Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms (30-60% chance) look to spread across the area during the afternoon and evening as well. A few of the thunderstorms could be severe with modest instability (500-1000 J/kg) and shear (deep layer shear around 30 kts). The main threats with the thunderstorms are strong wind gusts of 60+ mph and quarter size hail. Heavy rainfall is possible with the thunderstorms as well. The SPC currently has a marginal to slight risk of severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening for most of the area. Behind the cold front, Monday will be mostly dry and a few degrees cooler than Sunday. Upper level ridging then builds in by Tuesday, but weak energy and slightly above normal moisture (PWATs around 110-140% of normal) will allow for periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms to continue through the end of the work week. While uncertainty exits, another break down of the upper ridge could occur by late next week. Highs are forecast to range from the 90s most places on Sunday, cooling into the middle to upper 80s Monday and Tuesday. A gradual warming trend is then forecast into the second half of the week with temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. STP .AVIATION... 00z TAF Discussion...A couple of disturbances will bring a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area through around 10z tonight. The first wave is not very impressive with current convection but there are a few thunderstorms running around east of Billings and south along the east side of the Bighorn Mountains. The second wave is forecast to produce stronger convective activity from mid evening through the early morning hours as it crosses the area. Expect VFR to local MVFR conditions with convection tonight along with localized wind gusts to 40kts. After a quiet Sunday morning, another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop over the western mountains around 18z and spread slowly across the area through Sunday evening. Locally strong wind gusts will be the main threat from this activity. Southerly and Easterly winds continue to suppress wildfire smoke across the area, but slant range visibility will continue to be impacted at times through Sunday. Outside of convection, expect VFR conditions through Sunday. Chambers && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 067/095 063/088 061/086 061/091 063/093 063/089 061/089 54/T 30/U 00/B 00/B 21/B 20/B 20/B LVM 056/090 050/087 052/086 052/089 052/089 051/087 050/085 76/T 20/U 01/U 11/B 42/T 21/U 21/U HDN 064/097 060/089 056/088 056/093 061/094 060/091 058/090 33/T 40/U 00/U 00/U 12/W 20/B 20/B MLS 068/096 064/087 058/086 057/089 062/093 063/090 060/090 31/U 30/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 20/B 10/B 4BQ 067/095 065/088 059/086 058/089 063/092 063/090 061/090 31/U 30/U 10/U 00/U 11/B 21/B 21/B BHK 062/094 060/088 054/086 051/088 055/091 057/090 055/090 43/T 30/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 32/W 21/B SHR 060/092 058/087 055/084 052/088 056/090 056/088 054/088 33/T 30/U 03/T 12/T 21/B 11/B 11/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings  124 FXUS65 KCYS 222330 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 530 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected this weekend, with the possibility of widespread rain on Saturday. A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon. Flash flooding is also possible. - Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue Monday through the end of the week with slightly above average temperature expected until Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Another active day is expected this afternoon and evening as a shortwave passes through the upper-level ridge, bringing with it a push of monsoon moisture. Much like yesterday, the early development already being seen is weak and pulsey due to a decent amount of MLCIN still present. As the afternoon progresses, CIN will erode and storms will take advantage of the ample amounts of SBCAPE that the RAP is predicting later this afternoon. The shortwave will provide the lift for storms to develop while decent shear will allow for a few organized cells to sustain themselves. For the most part, hodographs are fairly linear, so multicell clusters and perhaps a small line or two are the favored storm modes. This is supported by Hi-Res guidance showing a similar solution. Although strong winds will be the primary concern in storms, embedded large hail could also be possible. With the monsoon push, PWATs are in the 90th percentile with model soundings showing rather slow cloud layer winds. As a result, heavy rains are expected with flash flooding a possibility. Along with flash flooding, a few severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Although storms are already beginning to fire, the strongest storms are most likely 4 PM and 9 PM this evening. After this timeframe, linger scattered showers are expected throughout southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska for the better part of the overnight. With the remnant moisture from storms and weak southerly flow overnight, patchy fog and low stratus could once again be possible for areas east of the Laramie Range, including the Nebraska panhandle. Sunday does not look as active as Saturday, although precipitation chances are still forecast. The ridge will flatten slightly as a trough skirts the Canadian border. This will cause winds to turn more westerly, which will help dry the low-levels a bit compared to Saturday. The westerly winds also cut down on instability, with model soundings only showing about 1000 J/kg of CAPE. As a result, Hi-Res guidance shows less coverage of storms across the forecast area. Any storms that develop on Sunday are not likely to be severe. With the westerly winds, gusty conditions are expected out west. A decent MSLP gradient will set up with 40 kt winds aloft. This could lead to 40+ MPH wind gusts during the afternoon and evening hours. Winds as well as any showers will dissipate overnight. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Moving into the work week we'll start off on the hot side with a high pressure ridge firmly in control of the Western US. While temperatures will cool just a couple of degrees compared to Sunday, highs still sit warmer than average by around 5-8 degrees. A cold front will be approaching the region with another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms on tap including locally stronger to weakly severe activity possible. By Tuesday though a backdoor cold front will offer very meager respite as highs drop by around 2-6 degrees, closer to near average but still above by up to a few degrees. Similarly, moisture will continue to remain just above average at around 120-140% of average, equating to PWAT values of 0.75-1.25 inches. While not impressive by any stretch of the imagination, this should continue to fuel daytime thunderstorms with a marginal risk of severe activity. Wednesday through the end of the week look to be largely similar with a steady warming trend, bringing us back to temperatures similar to Monday alongside continued daily afternoon thunderstorm risk under westerly to northwesterly flow. Drier air will slowly infiltrate through the week though, and this will begin to steadily increase our fire weather risk with elevated conditions at least by Friday. Anyone expecting an early end to summer will be sorely disappointed in the last full week of August. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 530 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are once again rolling through the region and may impact all terminals at varying times through the afternoon into the evening hours. These storms may lead to lower CIGs to MVFR status, with MVFR to possibly brief IFR VIS. Overnight, clouds will lift and clear through tomorrow morning, bringing a return of VFR conditions. Breezy winds 15-25 knots, higher with any nearby storms causing gusty and erratic winds, with similar winds overnight through tomorrow morning except for KBFF where winds look to remain less than 10 knots for the remainder of the TAF period. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SF LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...RZ  402 FXUS63 KABR 222333 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 633 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 20-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms during the day Sunday into Sunday evening over central SD, expanding to northeastern SD/west central MN Sunday night while increasing to a 40-60% chance. - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather Sunday evening over much of central to northeastern SD. The main concerns will be golf ball size hail, wind gusts exceeding 60 mph, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall. - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather Monday night. Threat include one inch hail and 60 mph. && .UPDATE... Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Aviation discussion updated below for the 00Z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A surface high pressure over the region is producing tranquil weather conditions across the CWA. The high pressure will shift eastward tonight, allowing for warm air advection and increasing LLM to move into the central part of the state. Various CAMS depict weak showers and thunderstorms developing in central-south central SD between 10-15Z. These storms may dissipate or move into northern Nebraska. However, there is a 20-25 percent chance the showers become a weak broken line associated with the WAA over central and north central SD. A good portion of the CWA is under a marginal risk for severe storms, mainly Sunday afternoon and evening. There are some signals among models with convection developing over south central ND around midday, or the juxtaposition of the warm front/cold front location. These storms may grow upscale into a cold pool MCS, tracking southeastward across the CWA. The instability and deep layer shear appears best along and west of the Highway 83, with a decent drop off further east. If an individual storm is able to tap into the instability, the severe threat may be golf ball size hail and wind gusts exceeding 60 mph. The precipitation potential placement reaches near two inches, with is an indication of locally heavy rainfall with some storms. The showers and thunderstorms should exit the CWA around 12Z, with mostly dry conditions and above average temperatures on Monday. A frontal boundary sliding southward Monday night will bring a 20 to 40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Some storms may produce quarter size hail and/or 60 mph winds. After a period of dry conditions midweek, another storm system will produce 30-45 percent chance of pcpn Friday night. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are generally forecast through the TAF period. South-southeast surface winds will become breezy across central SD (KPIR/KMBG) by late morning Sunday, with gusts around 25 kts. There's a chance for -TSRA/TSRA activity near the KPIR area Sunday morning and will handle this with a PROB30. Brief MVFR VSBY is possible under any -TSRA/TSRA. Another round of TSRA possible across central SD late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TMT DISCUSSION...17 AVIATION...TMT  283 FXUS63 KLBF 222331 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 631 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A chance for thunderstorms returns to much of the area tonight into early Sunday with a few stronger storms possible in the southern Panhandle through southwest Nebraska where hail and damaging winds will be the primary concerns. - Rain and thunderstorms will continue through Sunday and lead to much cooler temperatures in the upper 70s for central Nebraska, warming to upper 80s/lower 90s west of Highway 83. - Multiple disturbances crossing the upper ridge will allow for daily rain and thunderstorm chances for much of the upcoming week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 This afternoon, skies have largely cleared out from morning thunderstorms that departed prior to dawn to the south and east. Gradually, diurnal cumulus has begun to develop across the area but shows no vertical development so is not anticipated to be much for than a partly sunny afternoon for much of the local area. Temperatures ranged from the upper 70s to lower 80s and we should see a few more degrees added to these values through the peak of the afternoon with breezy east/southeast winds gusting around 20 to 25 mph. Late this afternoon/tonight...shortwave ridging will begin to breakdown as a lead shortwave lifts north and east across Wyoming and into western South Dakota/Nebraska this evening. As this occurs, southeasterly upslope flow will reinforce low to middle 60s dew points reaching the Front Range. Orographic lift and mid-level height falls coinciding with peak heating will allow scattered thunderstorms to develop along the I-25 corridor even as residual capping remains in place. Though instability should wane further east, steep lapse rates aloft and and a modest low-level jet should help maintain convection further east into the evening. The late morning update from the Storm Prediction Center trimmed up the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) across the local area but it still includes portions of our Panhandle and southwest Nebraska zones. Given storms are likely to be fairly disorganized and potentially weakening slightly, believe outflow winds will be the primary concern. As thunderstorms continue to move east, indications are that activity may increase in coverage again towards Highway 83 late tonight. This is likely driven by increased theta-e advection from an increasing LLJ. Instability will be relatively poor as lapse rates decrease so any threat for severe will largely be over by late this evening but greater coverage of general thunderstorms may support a greater potential for rain across the area. Accordingly, have given PoPs a boost for areas east of Highway 83 with values in the 35-45 percent range. HREF localized probability-matched mean shows spotty coverage of QPF > 1.50" with a reasonable buffer of amounts surpassing 0.25". This aligns nearly perfectly with Highway 83 through 12z (7am CDT) Sunday and generally matches the anticipated west to east progression of activity (meaning most locations east of Highway 183 may not see anything until after daybreak Sunday). With the rain and clouds, overnight lows were boosted slight with most locations holding in the low to middle 60s. Sunday/Sunday Night...by early Sunday, the main shortwave trough will be directly overhead and shifting east-southeast through the early part of the day. The passing trough axis will likely signal the end of precipitation chances and have PoPs ending for our western zones by late morning. Further east, particularly north central Nebraska, activity may persist into the afternoon and evening as another late afternoon/evening low-level jet forms and points into south central South Dakota. Limited instability locally coincident with the expected forcing should preclude any severe threat and this aligns with the latest SPC Day 2 outlook which keeps any severe mention to our north. The daytime temperature forecast proved tricky, with large variations in statistical guidance (~10F difference between MET and MAV guidance). Utilized a blend of both to land in the middle but favored the cooler MET guidance slightly given anticipated longer dwelling rain and thunderstorms for central Nebraska. This resulted in afternoon highs ranging from the upper 70s in our north central zones to upper 80s/lower 90s for the western Sandhills/Panhandle/southwest. Similar temperatures are expected Sunday night with forecast lows in the low to middle 60s for all of the area. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Upper level ridging will remain in place over the southern Rockies. This will promote continued zonal to quasi-northwesterly flow aloft for the Central Plains early in the week. Eventually, the upper ridge will retrograde and allow predominant northwesterly flow to become established across the region. Multiple disturbances will drop southeast within the mid-level flow and these along with associated trailing cool front should promote near-daily rain and thunderstorm chances locally with temperatures favoring near to slightly above normal for late August. The expected proximity to a mid-level speed max will largely keep severe weather in play though day-to-day predictability will largely hinge on mesoscale features that coarser mid-range models will struggle to resolve at this timescale. While the pattern doesn't suggest widespread beneficial rainfall across the area, NBM probabilities suggest at least the potential for a few areas to see wetting rains next week. This is especially true each afternoon/evening Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday where probabilities for exceeding 0.25" rainfall climb to around 25- 35 percent. As mentioned before, this will largely come down to smaller scale features which won't be forecasted with greater confidence for a few days still. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 631 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the evening across western and north central Nebraska. Overnight, however, showers and thunderstorms are expected to track across the region, bringing lower ceilings and potential visibility restrictions in addition to gusty and erratic winds. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through the morning hours, especially east of Highway 83, which may impact both KLBF and KVTN. As showers and storms continue, expect a drop to MVFR conditions. As this system leaves the area, winds increase out of the south, with gusts around 25 knots late morning and into the afternoon. Skies are expected to gradually clear as well, though some lower clouds may persist through the afternoon. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NMJ LONG TERM...NMJ AVIATION...Richie  306 FXUS64 KMOB 222331 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 631 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 627 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - A Heat Advisory is in effect tomorrow for southeast Mississippi from 11AM to 8PM for heat indices up to 109. - Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the seabreeze each afternoon this weekend. Brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds are the main impacts. && .UPDATE... Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Forecast remains on track; no updates needed. /96 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 105 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 This weekend we finally have some reprieve from the numerous daily thunderstorms with drier air moving in from the north. PWATs have decreased and will be in the 1.4-1.6" range for the remainder of the weekend. Isolated storms cannot be ruled out just along the seabreeze both afternoons. It is still hot with highs above normal in the mid to upper 90s for most of the area and possibly reaching 100, especially in our southeast Mississippi counties tomorrow. Afternoon dewpoints will be lower from the drier air moving in and drop into the mid to upper 60s for most inland areas with some low 60s possible for our northernmost counties. A Heat Advisory was issued for 11AM-8PM tomorrow for our southeast Mississippi counties for heat index values up to 109. Elsewhere, heat index values are just below criteria in the 100-107 range with some localized areas along the coast that may briefly reach up to 110 behind the afternoon seabreeze. Anybody outdoors should drink plenty of water and take breaks in A/C when possible. Moving into next week, the trough that brought the dry air will move off to the east. PWATs increase back to above average beginning Monday through the end of the week with ensemble mean values of 1.9- 2.2". An upper ridge currently centered over the Desert Southwest will slowly build in from the west. This places the area under northwesterly flow aloft on the eastern periphery of the ridge. This pattern can bring more organized convection down into our area, so we will watch for any of these ridge riders watch as we head into the next week. Otherwise, expect normal summertime scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon next week. Typical summertime heat is in store next week with high temperatures closer to normal in the low to mid 90s and afternoon dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Heat index values look to continue to be just below the Heat Advisory threshold of 108 for much of next week, with maximum values of 100-107 for much of the area each day. Heat headlines are not completely out of the question, but the convective coverage each day should limit the heat somewhat. Low temperatures bring some overnight relief with values in the low 70s for a majority of the area with mid to upper 70s just along the coast. ...BEACH FORECAST... The rip current risk will continue to be low for all area beaches in Florida and Alabama. Outside of any storms, surf heights remain generally 1 to potentially 2 feet through the end next week. SS/97 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected to develop over coastal counties Sunday afternoon. Expect brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. A few stronger storms capable of producing gusty, erratic winds cannot be ruled out. Light and variable winds tonight will become a light northerly to northwesterly wind by the morning hours. Winds along the coast should turn more southerly by the afternoon hours behind the sea breeze. /96 && .MARINE... Issued at 105 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A light to occasionally moderate westerly flow pattern continues through late next week. Winds are expected to follow a pattern that shifts from southwesterly each afternoon to northwesterly late each night. Isolated to potentially scattered showers and storms can be expected each morning next week with locally higher seas and winds near storms. SS/97 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 74 97 75 93 / 0 30 10 60 Pensacola 77 96 79 93 / 0 30 10 60 Destin 79 93 80 91 / 0 20 10 50 Evergreen 71 99 72 94 / 0 20 10 40 Waynesboro 73 100 73 92 / 10 10 30 50 Camden 72 97 73 92 / 0 10 20 40 Crestview 72 97 73 95 / 0 30 10 60 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079. GM...None. && $$  387 FXUS64 KOHX 222333 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 633 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 630 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Low chance for a thunderstorm mid afternoon through early evening, primarily east of I-65. Some storms could be strong to severe posing a threat for damaging wind gusts. - Slightly below-normal temperatures, particularly overnight, this weekend into early next week. - Low to medium rain and storm chances most days next week with && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A broad upper-level trough remains in place across the eastern CONUS today. An embedded disturbance is now advancing southeast through the Ohio Valley with an associated front now along the Ohio River making its way toward Middle Tennessee. Though it is relatively dry currently, slight moistening is expected ahead of the front as it approaches Middle Tennessee during peak afternoon heating. This will support increasing surface-based instability (2,000-3,000 J/kg) this afternoon within a nice corridor of mid- level flow (~40 kts). As a result, any storms that form and maintain this afternoon and evening will pose a threat for damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail up to quarter size. This band of convection should mainly be limited to 3 PM to 9 PM across Middle Tennessee and greatest overall chances are for areas east of I-65. The rest of the short-term looks dry and stable as we remain in northwest flow aloft and amidst an area of drier air behind the front moving through tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Cooler overnights and mornings will persist through early next week thanks to drier air in place. Higher terrain across the Plateau are forecast to have lows in the upper 50s Monday and Tuesday mornings. Troughing will make a slow progression to the east mid to late next week. This should open the door for an increase in moisture from the west. Continued mid- to upper-level flow will persist from the northwest providing a corridor for shortwaves to move through the area. These passing disturbances support the low to medium rain and storm chances most days next week. Temperatures are generally near seasonal norms. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A cluster of thunderstorms will impact CSV over the next hour or two, otherwise VFR conditions prevail for all taf sites. A cold front is laid across Middle TN right now that is resulting in a gradual northerly wind shift. Winds will relax below 10 kts in the coming hours with high clouds passing through overnight. Areas of dense fog will be likely at CSV and SRB overnight, burning off after sunrise. Winds will remain northerly through the day Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 64 89 62 88 / 20 0 0 0 Clarksville 63 86 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 60 82 58 83 / 30 0 0 0 Columbia 66 90 63 90 / 30 0 0 0 Cookeville 62 84 59 83 / 30 0 0 0 Jamestown 61 82 58 82 / 20 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 65 88 62 88 / 20 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 65 90 62 89 / 30 0 0 0 Waverly 65 87 63 87 / 20 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sizemore LONG TERM....Sizemore AVIATION.....Baggett  486 FXUS61 KCAR 222335 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 735 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... -730 PM Update with the issuance of the 00z TAFs. Increased speed of numerous to widespread showers through Hancock and Washington counties based on current radar and satellite trends, and adjusted QPF slightly accordingly. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Widespread rain tonight into Monday will help ease ongoing drought conditions in some areas. Rain may be heavy at times tonight into Sunday, especially across Downeast Maine. 2) Upper level low pressure keeps the chance of showers going into midweek, especially across Northern Maine. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread rain tonight into Monday will help ease ongoing drought conditions in some areas. Rain may be heavy at times tonight into Sunday, especially across Downeast Maine. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Lopres off of Cape Cod will move northeast tonight, passing just south of the Gulf of Maine. Latest CAMS and some global models suggesting that rain will slow down and shouldn't push onto the coast until closer to 21z this afternoon. Given the track of the low think the best chance for pops will be north and east of the low center overnight with the bulk of the rain occurring to the east of MDI tonight. PW values in far sern area rising to close to 99th percentile with amounts between 1.50-2.00 inches. Any rainfall will be helpful to ongoing drought conditions given that we will be in a cloudy cool pattern for the next couple days. This will allow for rainfall to get into the soils, unlikely to help streamflows which are significantly below normal. Weak lopres will still be back over the western Gulf of Maine and becoming absorbed by the occlusion around 12z. Although pwats remain high over srn and ern half of the area have reduced pops slightly in the afternoon with parts of the area lacking forcing. Given the 160- 180% of normal PWATs (95-99th percentile) showers may produce heavy rainfall at times. Showers will be more convective during the day so uncertain where the beneficial rainfall will occur. Then throughout Sunday night, the low becomes stationary over Quebec as it rotates the moisture through the state. By Monday, the low begins to gradually move north which will decrease rain chances throughout the day. However, best chance of showers and thunderstorms will be in the northern 1/2 of the CWA closer to the vertically stacked low in Quebec. KEY MESSAGE 2...Upper level low pressure keeps the chance of showers going into midweek, especially across Northern Maine. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure stalls over Canada, slowly meandering to the east next week. Looking at chances of rain showers in the north, on Tuesday and Wednesday. There is some instability during the afternoons, with some models hinting at 500-1,000 J/kg of CAPE, 7C/km low level lapse rates, and 30-40 kts of effective shear. PWAT values roughly 1.00-1.25", so rain showers expected to be mostly light, with higher totals possible in any convection. That being said, not anticipating severe weather. Temperatures drop Tuesday into the upper-60s to low-70s, and raise back to the 70s on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Tonight...MVFR/IFR late at northern Aroostook terminals as rain moves in from the south. LIFR at HUL, BGR and BHB by around midnight EDT in rain and fog. ENE winds 5kts. Sunday...IFR/LIFR at all terminals in low cigs and showers throughout the day. E to SE winds 5-10kts. Sunday night...IFR in showers and fog. ESE winds 5kts. Monday-Wednesday: MVFR or lower likely at northern terminals. MVFR possible at KBGR, with VFR likely at KBHB. S winds Monday, becoming SW Tuesday. LLWS possible Monday night. W-NWwinds G15-20KT possible Wednesday. Wednesday night-Thursday: VFR. Light winds overnight, becoming S/SW at 5-10 kts. && .MARINE... Winds below 10kts through Sunday night with seas between 2-4 feet through the period. Rain and patchy fog reduce visibilities at times. Slight chance of winds or seas reaching 25 kts/5 ft Monday- Tuesday. A chance for thunderstorms on Monday. Chance for fog late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Winds from the S on Monday, becoming SW on Tuesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AES/ASB/21 AVIATION...AES/ASB/21  435 FXUS63 KFGF 222334 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 634 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...Synopsis... Northwest flow prevails through the forecast period, with the passage of several shortwaves. A weak system moves into central and southeast North Dakota on Sunday, with low chances for a passing afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Best chances will be further west, however. A better chance for showers and storms will occur late Monday into Tuesday, when a stronger shortwave moves southeast out of Manitoba and into northwest and north central Minnesota. This will bring us a chance for isolated severe thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Moving into Tuesday, parts of northwest Minnesota could see an additional round of showers as weak shortwave activity continues. H5 ridging over the western CONUS is expected to flatten, thus weakening our northwest flow heading into the second half of next week. Ensemble guidance suggests additional rain chances as we head into Friday and Saturday, but will ultimately depend on the speed and progression of antecedent shortwave activity and shifts in the overall pattern. ...Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Late Monday... There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into the evening as a moderately strong shortwave pushes across the area. Steep low and mid level lapse rates will be in place during peak heating, with a cold front approaching from the northwest. Modeled surface CAPE ranges from 1500 to 2500 J/Kg across various ensembles and deterministic NAM/NAM Nest. Low to mid level shear is marginal, especially further ahead of the cold front. Hodographs, however, are relatively straight and have a degree of consistency in model soundings. If storms are able to form, there should be just enough shear to allow a mention of supercells, with a chance for splitting supercells or hybrid clusters. In a higher impact scenario, supercells form, bringing potential hazards including wind gusts upwards of 75 mph and large hail to the size of golf balls. If atmospheric support shifts more towards clusters, the potential hazards could include wind gusts upwards of 70 mph and hail up to the size of ping pong balls. Alternatively, in a lower end scenario, storms form later in the evening and severe storms become less likely, but could still support elevated hail producing storms during the late evening and overnight. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions now and throughout the period with only a few high clouds expected. The north to northwest winds at 5 to 10 kts will become light and variable overnight. The winds will shift around to the southeast and pick up again at the ND airports, but stay mostly below 12 kts. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...JR  503 FXUS64 KBRO 222335 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 635 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 627 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Hot and rain-free conditions will continue through late next week with "flash drought" situation worsening. - Moderate (level 2 of 4) to major risk (3 of 4) of heat-related impacts will worsen to major to extreme (level 4 of 4) by mid to late next week as overnight heat (upper 70s to 80s for most hours) accumulates while afternoon temperatures remain persistent between 100 (lower Valley) and 107-108 (Rio Grande Plains). - Heat advisories may be needed along/east of US 281/IH-69C next week for afternoon apparent temperatures of 111 to 114. - The combination of low minimum relativity humidity values, dry fuels, very hot temperatures, and "pulse" gusts up to 25 mph could lead to the potential for rapid wildfire spread through the period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The broken record pattern of persistent heat, dryness, afternoon pulse wind gusts (25 mph or so) remains the story, as the location of the seasonally strong 500 mb ridge (heat dome) is locked just north of the classic "La Canicula" position (southern New Mexico/southwest Texas/northern Coahuila and Chihuahua) and extends across most of Texas/northeast Mexico into the western Gulf. Global models nudge the core of the ridge into the aforementioned La Canicula position early next week, as general late summer (weak) troughing sets up across the northeast/mid Atlantic region. Toward the end of the period, the dome nudges west toward the southern New Mexico/Arizona border, but its eastward extent remains across most of Texas...which should keep any convection associated with the backside of the eastern U.S. trough mainly across the central and eastern Gulf, keeping our region rain-free. A reasonable worst-case could bring isolated showers/storms toward the outer coastal waters...but nothing more. Sensible weather, therefore, is on repeat. Otherwise, expect to see more periods of east-west moving cirrus/cirrostratus each day, which may allow for more picturesque sunrises - but the high clouds will have no influence on forecast temperatures, which rise to between 100 (lower Valley-eastern Kenedy) to 105-107 (upper Valley/Brush Country/Rio Grande Plains), and continue with sultry 80s to lower 90s through midnight (warmest west), only falling to between 75 and 82 (rural to urban) each morning. Light to near calm winds and the noticeable lengthening darkness will help bring the minimum temperatures down in the rural areas...but overall, temperatures will be around 3 degrees above late August averages - which have just slipped from their annual perch on the 21st. As for future heat advisories (111 or higher for 2 or more hours)? Current forecasts bring the potential back for locations mainly along/east of IH-69C/US 281 by Tuesday/Wednesday through next Saturday. However, the positive feedback loop of heat and evaporation drying the ground with little to no wetting dew suggests afternoon RH (based on dewpoints) may remain low enough to keep apparent temperatures between 105-110 in all areas. Bottom line? Stay cool as best you can - there is no relief for at least the next 10 days. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Southeast winds around 15 kts with some gusts around 20 kts prevail across Deep South Texas early this evening. Winds are expected to decrease later this evening and overnight. Southeast winds will increase and become moderate and gusty mid to late morning. Some gusts up to 20 knots will be possible in the afternoon. Will continue to include a TEMPO at MFE between 10 to 14Z Sunday for a low chance of MVFR stratocumulus. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Surface high pressure dominating the entire Gulf, conditions are favorable and will remain so through the period, with mainly light winds and slight seas with low swell periods and no impactful rain through Thursday night. The heat-generated gradient near the coastline and across Laguna Madre create a bit more wind (and chop), but conditions should remain at 15 knots or less, precluding even Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 While we're likely to fall just short of Fire Danger conditions (i.e. 15-20+ 20 foot wind), we're on the razor's edge when considering pulse gusts. Unlike earlier this week, however, the gradient does slacken enough to keep even a reasonable worst-case gust factor to 25 mph along/east of IH-69C/US-281, and 20 mph to the west. But the combination of flash drought, the potential for afternoon RH to fall into the 15-25% range west of IH-69C/US 281 (and 25-35% east of there) as well as re-cured fuels based on visuals and the above-average evaporation rates are enough to keep the wildfire prevention message front and center. Burn bans remain in effect for all but Kenedy County, and just a spark combined with even a pulse gust could quickly turn into a wildfire that could spread fairly rapidly. Since late July, there were two large wildfires with nearly 1400 acres burned in western Brooks - an area that missed out on two rain events not too far away (southwestern Brooks). The last truly beneficial rain over a decent-sized area was on August 2...and those benefits are long dried up. Continue to promote wildfire safety and prevention until further notice. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 How hot, August? Through the 21st, ranking in the top two or three all-time for most available stations. Rival years include 2023 (tops for several locations) and 2009 (tops for McAllen). 2023 remains the hottest meteorological summer (June-August) and astronomical summer (June 21 - September 21, in general)...but 2026 is hot on its heels. Given the expected temperatures to remain around 3 degrees above average through the end of August, several locations may tie or even push ahead of 2023's benchmark. Here are the current stats for August, through the 21st: Location (since) August (Rank) Record (year) Brownsville (1878) 90.0 (2) 90.5 (2023) McAllen (1941) 91.5 (2) 92.3 (2009) Harlingen (1912) 88.6 (5) 90.3 (2023) McCook (1942) 89.3 (4) 90.1 (1998) Port Mansfield (1958) 86.8 (2) 87.3 (2023) Rio Grande City (1897)* 90.3 (3) 93.0 (1901)* Weslaco (1914) 89.5 (2) 90.4 (2023) Raymondville (1913) 89.7 (1) 2026 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 79 99 80 99 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 75 102 76 102 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 78 104 79 104 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 76 105 76 105 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 90 81 90 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 97 78 97 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52-Goldsmith LONG TERM....52-Goldsmith FIRE WEATHER/CLIMATE...52-Goldsmith AVIATION...63-KC  461 FXUS65 KABQ 222334 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 534 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 534 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue today and Sunday mainly along and west of the central mountain chain with a risk of cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts, and ponding of water on roads. - Smoke from the Frijoles Fire will continue to impact air quality in the vicinity of the fire this week. - Moderate-to-high heat risk will impact much of central and eastern New Mexico this weekend through the middle of next week with record and near-record high temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Storms so far today have been mostly concentrated over the western and northern high terrain with spatially small cells moving very slowly as the stout 598 decameter high settles over NM. GOES total precipitable water values are showing lowest values of 0.6 to 0.8 inch over the Sangre de Cristos which was modeled quite well yesterday. Elsewhere readings rise to 0.8 to 1.1 inch with the highest values found in the climatologically expected eastern plains. Even with these PWATs, the surface dewpoints in the 40's and low 50's and hot temperatures in the 80's, 90's, and low 100's are creating some large dewpoint depressions that are impeding rainfall efficiency. The high is also producing sluggish steering flow that is making it hard for cells to move off of the high terrain. The catch-22 for many nearby lower elevations is that they will be dependent on stronger nearby high terrain storms that can create sufficient mesoscale cold pools and outflow boundaries moving into lower elevations before new lower elevation storms can be regenerated through the evening. Hot temperatures are also underway, and the Heat Advisory will continue for Chaves and Quay counties through 8 PM MDT. Storms are modeled to largely dissipate before midnight with a few less vigorous showers surviving into the early morning hours. Another Heat Advisory might be needed for Sunday. Currently, this updated forecast only has Roswell meeting criteria (105 F), but a few locations are encroaching upon record high temperatures which might be justification for expansion. A subtle perturbation still looks to move eastward over the central Rockies in CO with subsequent storms sending outflow and perhaps additional storms into northern NM late Sunday. Otherwise, western high terrain areas will remain the favored area for storm development Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The upper high is advertised to settle more concentrically over NM into Monday with heights reducing a decameter or two, down to 596-597 at 500 mb. Southeasterly return flow at the surface will meet up with a weak, moist backdoor front on Monday with convergence and upslope flow aligning over northeastern NM where storms would be focused. The east southeast surface winds coupled with west northwesterly winds aloft could yield sufficient directional shear for a strong to severe storm or two late Monday afternoon into the evening. More sparse storms will continue developing along and near the Continental Divide Monday, and a near-persistence temperature forecast will keep heat impacts front and center for many NM zones. A reinforcing backdoor boundary could slide back into southeastern CO, southwestern KS, and far northeastern NM with perhaps another perturbation aloft along the CO front range on Tuesday. The NAM is even more invasive with this backdoor boundary, carrying it much farther southward into the NM plains. Regardless of exact location, thisboundary will once again help ignite storm development while providing enough directional shear for a few more strong to severe cells Tuesday. By this time, recycling of available moisture would be more difficult for western zones, and less coverage is possible there. Tuesday's convection will help govern the placement of the moist, unstable plains airmass going into the day Wednesday. For now, it is modeled to be draped over northeast to east central NM and possibly toward the high terrain of Lincoln county which would lead to farther southward expansion of storms Wednesday afternoon. Into Thursday, the upper high will be settling into southwestern NM or eastern AZ. Surface winds look to veer more southeasterly or southerly with areas along and east of the central mountain chain appearing to be the best poised for scattered storms Thursday afternoon and evening. Moisture and instability would be then be tempered some into Friday with storms tending to stay more focused over and near the high terrain. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 534 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Scattered thunderstorms continue across the area this evening, with accompanying outflow boundaries producing brief gusts up to 30- 35kts. With the higher confidence of gusty outflow winds, along with isolated shower/storm development, in and around KABQ/AEG this evening, have included a TEMPO group in the TAF through 03z. Continued isolated development is likely to continue across most of the I-40 corridor and northward through 06z. Any direct thunderstorm hits to airfields may yield brief MVFR/IFR visibilities. Latest guidance is hinting at overnight showers across far northwest NM near KFMN, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this time. Thunderstorm development, once again, is expected tomorrow afternoon after 18z, focusing mainly on western and northern NM. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The monsoon high will be stronger than normal for the next several days, keeping temperatures 5 to 12 degrees above average. The high will also limit storms for the rest of the weekend, generally keeping cells confined to northern and western NM. This regime will keep daily rounds of low afternoon humidity (12-20%) in the forecast through the weekend. Storms will then trend up in northeastern NM Monday and Tuesday before expanding into more of the eastern half of the state on Wednesday as weak, but moist backdoor fronts move in. With high temperatures only getting reduced a couple to a few degrees in eastern zones, readings will still stay above normal area-wide through late next week. Humidity will recover better in areas impacted by the backdoor fronts (morning recoveries of 60-80%), but elsewhere humidity will only rebound to 40-60% in the mornings. Storms could then reduce in number and coverage again by late in the upcoming work week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 66 94 64 95 / 20 10 5 5 Dulce........................... 52 90 51 91 / 30 30 20 10 Cuba............................ 59 88 60 91 / 20 20 20 10 Gallup.......................... 57 90 57 90 / 30 30 30 20 El Morro........................ 56 85 55 86 / 40 40 30 20 Grants.......................... 58 89 58 90 / 20 40 20 20 Quemado......................... 58 86 58 87 / 20 40 20 20 Magdalena....................... 63 88 63 89 / 20 20 10 20 Datil........................... 58 85 58 86 / 20 30 20 20 Reserve......................... 58 93 57 93 / 20 30 10 20 Glenwood........................ 63 98 64 98 / 20 20 10 20 Chama........................... 53 83 52 85 / 30 40 20 30 Los Alamos...................... 64 86 63 87 / 20 40 40 20 Pecos........................... 59 89 59 90 / 20 10 20 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 57 84 56 85 / 30 60 30 30 Red River....................... 45 77 46 79 / 30 50 30 40 Angel Fire...................... 42 81 38 82 / 20 30 30 50 Taos............................ 57 88 56 89 / 20 40 20 20 Mora............................ 55 86 55 86 / 30 30 30 50 Espanola........................ 60 93 61 94 / 20 30 30 10 Santa Fe........................ 63 89 63 91 / 20 20 20 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 61 92 62 94 / 20 10 20 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 94 69 96 / 20 5 20 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 69 95 70 97 / 20 5 20 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 66 97 64 98 / 20 5 20 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 96 68 97 / 20 10 20 5 Belen........................... 67 98 67 99 / 10 5 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 68 96 67 98 / 20 5 20 5 Bosque Farms.................... 65 97 64 98 / 20 5 10 0 Corrales........................ 68 97 67 98 / 20 5 20 5 Los Lunas....................... 66 97 66 98 / 10 5 10 0 Placitas........................ 66 93 67 94 / 20 5 20 5 Rio Rancho...................... 68 95 68 97 / 20 5 20 5 Socorro......................... 70 99 70 99 / 10 5 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 89 64 90 / 20 5 20 5 Tijeras......................... 64 90 64 92 / 20 5 20 5 Edgewood........................ 60 90 61 92 / 20 5 20 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 57 92 57 94 / 20 5 10 10 Clines Corners.................. 61 89 61 91 / 20 5 10 10 Mountainair..................... 61 91 61 92 / 20 5 0 10 Gran Quivira.................... 62 91 62 92 / 10 0 0 10 Carrizozo....................... 67 94 68 96 / 10 5 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 58 87 60 89 / 10 10 0 10 Capulin......................... 58 88 56 88 / 20 50 40 50 Raton........................... 58 91 55 92 / 20 50 30 60 Springer........................ 58 94 56 94 / 30 40 40 30 Las Vegas....................... 58 90 58 90 / 20 20 20 30 Clayton......................... 67 97 66 97 / 10 30 40 30 Roy............................. 63 95 61 94 / 20 20 30 20 Conchas......................... 70 102 69 101 / 10 5 20 5 Santa Rosa...................... 68 99 67 98 / 10 5 10 5 Tucumcari....................... 71 103 71 103 / 5 0 10 5 Clovis.......................... 70 100 71 101 / 0 0 0 5 Portales........................ 71 102 72 102 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 70 102 70 102 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 70 105 71 105 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 66 98 67 99 / 0 5 0 5 Elk............................. 62 93 63 95 / 5 5 0 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ234-238. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...77  485 FXUS65 KPUB 222335 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 535 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms persist across the eastern plains tonight, some of which may be strong. - Increased coverage of showers and storms expected tomorrow, with flash flood potential, especially along the Aspen Acres burn scar. - Showers and storms continue through much of the incoming week, though with a downtrend in coverage late week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 202 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Tonight: For Saturday night, active weather persist for portions of south central and southeastern Colorado. A ridge of high pressure will be in place just to the south of the region. Along the northern periphery of this feature, a short wave will push across the area through the evening and overnight hours. The increased support from this wave, along with abundant monsoonal moisture in place, will allow for storms that develop along the higher terrain earlier in the day to push eastward across the plains overnight. The greatest coverage of storms is expected north of Highway 50, where support from the wave will be best. In addition, outflow from these storms may initiate further thunderstorm development along and just south of Highway 50, but this will be highly dependent on how outflows evolve during this period. With high precipitable water values between 1-.1.5 inches, heavy rainfall and strong outflow winds around 55 mph from wet microburst/heavy water laden downdrafts will be possible with stronger thunderstorms. Outside of that, light showers will fester around the mountain and valley areas. Heading into the early morning hours though, most, if not all, showers and storms are anticipated to be dissipate as the shortwave exits. Beyond all of that, winds will weaken and become lighter overnight, around 10 mph, with clouds lingering through much of the evening and overnight as well. Looking at temperatures, given the moisture and cloud cover in place, another mild to warm night is anticipated, with the plains cooling into the 60s to low 70s, the valleys into the 50s to low 60s, and the mountains into the low 40s to 50s. Tomorrow: Heading into Sunday, another day of active weather is anticipated for south central and southeastern Colorado. The ridge of high pressure will remain to our south, with monsoonal moisture continuing to stream up and around the ridge and into the region. Like Saturday and Saturday night, this moisture, combined with vort maxes and a short wave within the broader flow, will bring another day of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Showers and storms are expected to first blossom along the mountains, and then ooze across the valleys and adjacent plains by mid to late afternoon. With another day of high precipitable water values around 1-1.2 inches, more heavy rainfall and strong outflow winds around 50 mph from water laden downdrafts is expected with any stronger storms. Also given the increased coverage, flash flooding may become a concern, especially across the Aspen Acres burn scar. Given this, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for this area for Sunday. Outside of all of that, afternoon winds will remain fairly light, around 10 mph, with cloud cover increasing heading into the afternoon hours. As for temperatures, another hot day with above seasonal values is expected, with the plains warming into the low to upper 90s, the valleys into the low to upper 80s, and the mountains into the mid 50s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 202 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Sunday Night - Friday: For the rest of the forecast period, active weather persist across south central and southeastern Colorado. The ridge ofhigh pressure to south will remain there, but will slowly meander further to the southwest throughout the week. While monsoon moisture will continue to stream around this feature and into the area, it will become less and less as the high pressure cuts-off the better quality moisture heading through week. With that all said, daily afternoon and evening showers and storms are still expected each day, with the greatest coverage through Wednesday, with a progressive downtrend in coverage Thursday and Friday. Otherwise, winds will continue to remain relatively light, with afternoon and evening clouds expected. Temperatures will also remain elevated, with much of the region staying at above seasonal values through the week, especially for the end of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 535 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across much of the forecast area this evening and may linger late to near midnight before VFR conditions settle in for all areas. Convection expected to redevelop most areas by 18z-19z tomorrow. KCOS and KPUB: PROB30 for variable gusts to 30-35 kts and -TSRA through 04z for KPUB, and through 07z for KCOS. VFR conditions overnight, then PROB30 for -TSRA once again starting 21z-22z. KALS: PROB30 for variable gusts to 35 kt and -TSRA through 02z. VFR overnight, then PROB30 for variable gusts and -TSRA again starting at 20z. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for COZ079-080-086. && $$ SHORT TERM...SIMCOE LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...MOORE  593 FXUS61 KALY 222336 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 736 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Refined timing for showers and thunderstorms Sunday. First, more widespread round moves through in the morning to early afternoon. Additional, scattered showers and thunderstorms develop from mid afternoon to early evening. Coverage looks less later in the day. There remains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms across the entire region on Sunday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Likelihood of showers and thunderstorms increases late tonight into Sunday. A few storms may become severe on Sunday. 2) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday and Tuesday, especially near and north of I-90. Temperatures will be below normal. 3) Chances of showers and thunderstorms return late next week along with warmer temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... An upper level trough over our region will deepen through the rest of the weekend, as a closed low develops across the Great Lakes and far SE Canada. Initially, our area will be on the downstream/diffluent side of the trough axis, with an associated occluded surface front tracking NE Sun morning into early afternoon. A weak surface wave developing along the front along with PWAT anomalies briefly increasing to +1 to +2 STDEV, could result in brief downpours associated with any convection with the occluded front. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms Sunday, first with convective clusters/lines in the morning to early afternoon with potential for isolated damaging winds gusts. Then, there looks to be another period for more cellular storm mode in the afternoon, with de-stabilization (SB CAPE of 700-1500 J/Kg) and 0-6 km shear increasing to 35-40 kt in wake of the front (from REFS). Breaks of sunshine and residual low level moisture, along with falling heights aloft will result in potential for some additional severe storms, with both isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail the main threats. Coverage of shower/T-storms should be less compared to the morning though. Convection should dissipate shortly after sunset Sunday evening, as instability wanes and a small low level ridge builds in from the west. KEY MESSAGE 2... The main core of the upper level low mentioned above will be firmly established near the far southern Ontario/Quebec border by Mon and will be anomalously strong (500 mb height anomalies of -2 to -3 STDEV). A potent short wave disturbance rotating around the periphery of the low center, is expected to move across our area. This will result in additional showers and a few T-storms, especially Mon afternoon to early evening. Showers will be most numerous across the Adirondacks, where there will be upslope/lake enhancement with a cold core aloft moving overhead with W-SW flow developing. While the overall threat for severe weather appears low, there is potential for at least a few storms to produce small hail and/or gusty winds due to steepening low/mid level lapse rates. The core of the upper low is expected to track into southern Quebec on Tue, with the system's upper trough axis still in place across our region. This will result in additional showers developing, although lower coverage compared to Mon (mainly isolated to scattered). Showers will be most favored across westerly upslope areas of the higher terrain. It will also be breezy, with westerly winds gusting 20-25 mph at times in favored areas. Temperatures will remain below normal through Tuesday. KEY MESSAGE 3... After a break in the unsettled weather on Wed, chances for showers/T-storms will increase again during the Thu/Fri time frame, as a broad upper level trough approaches from the west. Potential multiple short wave passages should result in scattered to numerous showers, with T-storms also possible depending on instability and moisture return. Confidence in timing/coverage is low due to uncertainty in details of smaller scale features this far out. Temperatures look to warm back to normal mid-late next week too. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions continue at KGFL, KALB, and KPOU through 4z-6z. MVFR conditions continue at KPSF through 4z. After 4z, low level clouds move into all TAF sites with ceilings fluctuating between MVFR and IFR through 6z when conditions should persist to IFR. KGFL could periodically see patchy fog/mist through 10z. Rain shower activity increases between 10z and 12z from west to east across all TAF sites with IFR/LIFR conditions persisting through 18z. For KALB, included a PROB30 group for thunderstorms between 16z and 19z as confidence is still low if thunderstorms are to develop during this timeframe. Similarly, confidence is still low on the timing of any thunderstorm develop for KGFL, KPSF, and KPOU from 12z to 18z so continued mention of low chances in PROB30 groups for this timeframe. Winds become more light and variable throughout the TAF period. Outlook... Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...FG. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...05  613 FXUS61 KBOX 222337 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 737 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Spotty light showers/drizzle tonight but much of the time it will be dry. More humid Sun with a few showers & t-storms possible especially near & west of the CT River Valley where an isolated strong-severe t-storm or two is possible. - Drier with a return to seasonable temperatures next week. Rain chances return Thursday/Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Spotty light showers/drizzle tonight but much of the time it will be dry. More humid Sun with a few showers & t-storms possible especially near & west of the CT River Valley where an isolated strong-severe t-storm or two is possible. Weak offshore low pressure will continue to result in moist/light NE low level flow into tonight. The result will be rather cloudy skies tonight with just some spotty light showers/drizzle at times...but this activity will be quite light with much of the time featuring dry weather. Some shortwave energy may allow for a few elevated heavier showers and perhaps a couple t-storms to develop near the southeast New England coast toward daybreak...mainly near the Cape and Islands. Some of the earlier model guidance has this activity further west...but latest indicating that the main risk for this will be towards the Cape and Islands closer to the shortwave energy. Overnight low temps will only drop into the lower to middle 60s given clouds and an abundance of low level moisture. Areas of fog will be possible too...especially near the coast and in the Worcester Hills. Again...we will need to watch for a few showers and isolated t- storms near the Cape and Islands early Sun morning. Otherwise...the main concern for a few showers and thunderstorms will be Sun afternoon/early evening given diurnal instability and shortwave energy to our west. The bulk of the height falls/forcing will be to our west. Therefore...greatest risk for a few showers and thunderstorms will be near and west of the CT River Valley Sun afternoon/early evening. Instability will be limited by a lot of cloud cover...but effective shear of 40+ knots will result in the low risk for an isolated strong to severe severe thunderstorm or two. Main severe weather risk would be a very localized damaging wind gusts and brief torrential rainfall. Greatest risk for this would near and west of the CT River Valley. That being said...much of the day will feature dry weather...but with a bit more humidity compared to this afternoon. Highs will be in the 70s to near 80. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier with a return to seasonable temperatures next week. Rain chances return Thursday/Friday. A post-frontal air mass will usher in drier conditions and warmer temperatures with westerly winds Monday. As skies gradually clear from the dreary weekend, dewpoints will begin to drop slightly... into the upper 50s as opposed to the low to mid 60s we've been seeing. High pressure begins to slowly build Tuesday into Wednesday, prolonging the clear skies, drier weather, and warmer temperatures through the middle of the week. Chances for rain showers return Thursday and Friday as a low pressure system develops over the Great Lakes and meanders east through southern Ontario. Some uncertainty regarding the onset of the showers as there's little consistency in the global ensembles on the actual placement of the low as it tracks through Canada. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00z TAF Update... Through tonight...Moderate confidence. MVFR conditions continue to deteriorate to generally IFR with localized LIFR cigs/vsbys tonight. A few spotty showers/light drizzle and fog patches are possible at times too. Perhaps a few heavier showers and isolated t-storms graze areas towards the Cape and Islands toward daybreak Sun, although latest guidance has trended those further north and west into the I-95 corridor and closer to BOS. Calm/light NE winds. Sunday and Sunday night...Moderate confidence. Mainly IFR with localized LIFR conditions Sun morning should improve to mainly MVFR-VFR levels by Sun afternoon/night. A few showers and t-storms are possible too with the greatest risk near and west of the CT River Valley during the afternoon/early evening. Light ENE gradually becoming light S by Sun night. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight through Sunday night...High confidence. A wave of low pressure across the waters will be lifting into the Canadian Maritimes tonight. The pressure gradient though will remain weak enough to keep winds/seas below small craft advisory thresholds through Sunday night. Areas of fog will reduce visibilities for mariners at times especially later tonight into Sun morning. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Frank/McMinn AVIATION...McMinn MARINE...Frank/McMinn  557 FXUS63 KOAX 222336 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 636 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and pleasant conditions this afternoon, with high temperatures in the mid 80s. - Patchy fog is possible overnight, followed by scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday morning and again Sunday night. - Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances continue next week, with high temperatures generally in the mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1120 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Today and Tonight... Water vapor imagery and objective analysis late this morning depict an amplified ridge in place over the western CONUS with subsequent troughing in place over the eastern CONUS. Sandwiched between the two, we continued to reside under northwesterly flow aloft as a train of disturbance slide over the ridge and into the area. Surface high pressure is filtering into the area following the departure of morning showers and storms, helping to bring a dry and pleasant afternoon with plenty of sunshine. High temperatures are expected to peak in the mid 80s, near seasonal norms for mid-August. Patchy fog development is expected overnight, especially over far eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa where clear skies will bring radiational cooling and winds remain the lightest. Model soundings indicate a narrow saturated layer near the surface, likely confining fog to low-lying and wind protected areas. Sunday... Late tonight into Sunday morning, a round of convection is expected to initiate east of the Front Range as a shortwave disturbance pivots into the area. Into Sunday morning, the convection is expected to progress eastward across Nebraska, bringing PoPs of 40-60% into east-central Nebraska, generally in the 4-9 AM timeframe. Instability will gradually decrease as storm progress towards the area, limiting overall storm intensity and coverage with eastern progression. Lingering cloud cover, and perhaps a shower or two lingering into the afternoon, will keep high temperatures confined to the upper 70s and low 80s. Later Sunday, convection is expected to initiate across east-central South Dakota as an midlevel shortwave disturbance pivots into the northern Plains. Convection is expected to becoming more widespread into the late evening/early overnight period of the LLJ ramps up, helping to form a larger cluster of thunderstorms that will eventually push southeastward, into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. How far south this complex progresses into the area remains in question, as instability remains maximized around 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE in northeast Nebraska, decreasing southward. However, increasing low- level moisture transport and WAA could help support scattered thunderstorms through the overnight period. For now, PoPs peak in the 50-75% range north of Interstate-80. A strong to severe storm can't be ruled out, though the limited instability over much of the area should help to limit any widespread severe weather. Monday and Beyond... Into the work week, we will continue in the pattern or northwesterly flow aloft with a train of disturbances bringing periodic precipitation chances. High temperatures will generally reside in the low to mid 80s through the week. Tuesday night into early Wednesday, a more potent disturbance pushing across the central and northern Plains will push a cold front southward across the area. The front won't have much of an impact on temperatures, but will bring a round of 30-50% PoPs to the area. Periodic 15% PoPs exist through the week, though dry periods are expected to outweigh wet ones. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Light north winds will slowly veer overnight and become southernly by late tomorrow morning. Medium to high confidence in VFR conditions through the period. There could be patchy fog across eastern NE early in the morning. Although with the drier airmass that moved in today and advancing high clouds in the morning, fog should be limited. A few passing light showers are expected during the day tomorrow. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...CLF  664 FXUS61 KOKX 222338 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 738 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated for 00z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Conditions remain unsettled this weekend, with a chance for locally heavy downpours tonight into Sunday. A few storms on Sunday could be strong to severe. 2) Drier conditions settle in early to mid next week, with temperatures averaging slightly below normal. 3) Showers and thunderstorm chances return towards the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Heights fall into tonight as mid level troughing digs south from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Though the parent surface low remains well to the north and west of the region, a weak wave of low pressure tracks north along an offshore frontal boundary tonight, passing nearby Sunday morning, before the attendant cold front moves through later in the day. Light rain or drizzle remains possible into this evening, mainly across eastern LI and coastal SE CT, before rain chances gradually increase throughout the forecast area with the approach of the frontal wave tonight. Strengthening SW flow aloft will advect deep moisture plume into the region during this time, with PWATs increasing to between 1.5 and 2 inches. Rain coverage is expected to be more scattered in nature than widespread overnight, and some areas will remain much drier than others. But with the ample moisture available, as well as some instability Sunday morning observed in forecast soundings, can't rule out localized flooding if heavier activity persists or trains over one area. A strong to severe thunderstorm also can't be ruled out in the mid to late morning hours and SPC has kept the region outlined in a marginal (level 1/5) risk, with an isolated damaging wind gust possible. Despite the rain chances, the remainder of the weekend won't be a washout, and QPF overall is expected to be modest, on the order of a quarter to half inch. Given the nature of the convective activity, there could be a few areas that pick up a quick couple of inches of rain should cells prove more persistent, but this would be quite localized if it were to occur. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Beyond the frontal passage, the closed low trough continues to shift into the Northeast, keeping mid level heights low. Surface high pressure builds in from the Midwest, with westerly flow persisting through midweek. Given the cyclonic flow and cold pool aloft, expect a fair amount of stratcu development Monday afternoon, and can't rule out a few pop up showers across the interior. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail. Temperatures will remain a few degrees below climo for late August, daytime highs generally in the 70s to low 80s. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Guidance continues to indicate the approach of the next frontal system from the west along with a digging upper level trough late this week. This will bring a return to a more unsettled weather pattern with chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. It's too early at this time to narrow down any potential severe threats from this system. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A weak wave of low pressure slowly approaches from the south this afternoon into tonight, passing through some terminals Sunday morning. A cold front then moves through Sunday night. All terminals lower to IFR late tonight with showers and eventually improve back to VFR Sunday afternoon. Although cannot rule out thunder as early as early this evening, better overall chances (noted with PROB30) start after sunrise on Sunday with the approach and passage of the low center and subsequent approach of a weak cold front/trough later in the day. Winds mainly E to SE under 10kt through tonight, shiftingbriefly SE to S Sunday morning, then SW by around noontime for most terminals. Terminals east of NYC shift SW later in the day. Gusts up to 20kt Sunday afternoon are possible. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... For all terminals, IFR might not happen tonight with conds instead remaining MVFR. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Sunday through Wednesday: VFR. SW gusts around 20kt on Monday afternoon. Thursday: VFR AM, chance of sub-VFR and -shra PM. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Conditions on the coastal waters are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds with a weak pressure gradient in place through mid next week. Rip Currents: The rip current risk for the rest of today is low to moderate. A moderate risk is expected for both Sunday and Monday. The swell will be primarily from the SE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DR AVIATION...JT MARINE...JC/DR  716 FXUS62 KILM 222339 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 739 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for 00Z TAFS. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and storms capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding through this evening. 2) Strong southerly winds and hazardous marine conditions expected to develop Sunday into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and storms capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding through this evening. A weak meso-low along a stalled frontal zone and attendant MCV responsible for a cluster of heavy rain showers that produced 1 to 2 inches of rain across portions of Brunswick, New Hanover and Pender counties earlier this morning has moved north and east of the area. However, daytime heating and moderate destabilization within the moist airmass, combined with weak synoptic height falls associated with the upper trough building into the region and additional upper impulses traversing the region, should support the re-development of scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible near the immediate coast and offshore tonight as impulses aloft interact with instability over the very warm ocean. Locally heavy rain and isolated flash flooding will remain possible through this evening, with HREF and REFS highlighting coastal counties/zones as having the greatest potential for localized 2-4" rainfall totals. Modest lapse rates and shear should limit the overall severe threat, though an isolated wet microburst cannot be ruled out. KEY MESSAGE 2... A reprieve from the extreme heat with shower and storm chances returning mid to late next week. An upper air pattern featuring a strong upper-high anchored over the Southwest and mean troughing over the east-central U.S. will prevail through the period. This pattern will will bring a welcomed reprieve from the recent extreme heat, with temperatures returning more to seasonable levels along with and lower BL dewpoints and humidity. Noticeably drier air and lower PWATs, potentially falling into the lowest 2 to 10 percentile of climatology will advect into the area Sunday. Despite a lingering weak boundary and weak disturbances swinging through the area, the dry air should limit rain chances to mainly widely scattered showers and storms, focused near the immediate coast Sunday and Monday. Moisture and instability will gradually return to more typical levels Tuesday onward, yielding chances of mainly diurnal showers and storms through the remainder of the period. Storm coverage could increase to to likely or numerous levels Friday and Saturday as the next cold front approaches the area. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mainly VFR to start off the 00Z TAF period, however showers and storms will remain possible near the coast over the next few hours bringing occasional MVFR/IFR conditions. The main aviation concern continues to be the potential for areas of fog and stratus during the predawn hours Sunday morning. Moderate confidence in this happening at KLBT and KFLO, so included TEMPO groups there. Low confidence at the coastal terminals, so kept it out for now. Any sub-VFR restrictions that develop should lift/improve rapidly between 12 to 14z with isolated to scattered convection expected Sunday afternoon and evening, mainly along the immediate coast. Extended Forecast... Rain chances will be relatively low Monday, followed by a return of scattered diurnal showers and storms Tuesday through Thursday as humidity and moisture increases. Periods of early morning fog and low stratus will also be possible. && .MARINE... Tonight through Thursday...Marine conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period. Expect generally south to southwest winds to prevail through the period as a weak front stalls near the coast. Winds are expected to peak around 15-20 kts over Saturday night and wave heights stay around 3 ft or less within 20 nmi and up to 4 ft in the 20-60 nmi zones, highest this weekend. The biggest marine impact will likely be from scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the waters through the weekend as a front stalls near the coast. There will likely be several rounds of storms, accompanied by reduced visibility and possible gusty winds. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...MAS KEY MESSAGES...ABW/CBL DISCUSSION...CBL AVIATION...MAS/CBL MARINE...ABW/CBL  704 FXUS63 KIND 222339 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 739 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A very isolated shower or storm possible this afternoon. - Cooler and less humid weather expected through Tuesday. - The next best chance for rain will be Wednesday Night through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION (This evening through Saturday)... Issued at 138 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Surface analysis early this afternoon shows broad low pressure in place over Ontario. A weak trough within this flow has pushed east of Indiana into Ohio, and westerly flow was in place. Some SCT-BKN CU had developed over Central Indiana and was quickly pushing east. Aloft, strong ridging was in place over the Rockies, resulting in lee side subsidence spilling across the northern plains and into the Ohio Valley on NW flow. Dew points across Central Indiana were mainly in the mid 60s and skies were clear over IL and IA, building toward Indiana. Tonight and Sunday... Upper ridging is expected to build east tonight and Sunday toward the upper midwest. This will keep NW flow in place across Indiana and allow subsidence to continue to build across our region. Strong surface high pressure will build across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will result in a mostly clear night and a mostly sunny Sunday. Highs will reach the upper 70s to around 80 on Sunday. Monday... Another pleasant late summer day will be in place on Monday, as ridging aloft continues to be in place over the upper midwest, allowing NW flow to continue to flow across Indiana with subsidence. Models suggest strong surface high pressure in place, stretching from Ontario to the deep south. Forecast soundings remain very dry during this period, thus another mostly sunny/partly cloudy day will be expected with highs in the lower 80s. Tuesday through Saturday... The upper pattern for much of the latter parts of the forecast will remain consistently from the NW. Stronger ridging aloft over the western CONUS looks to continue this ongoing NW flow across the upper midwest and into the Ohio Valley. An exception within this pattern will be on Thursday as an upper trough within the NW flows will push through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, providing some upper support. This feature will push a cold front across Central Indiana on Thursday, resulting in our best chances of the week for some light precipitation. Otherwise, surface high pressure due to the lee side subsidence aloft will continue to be dominate on Tuesday-Wednesday and again on Friday and Saturday. Expect temperatures to remain at or slightly below seasonal normals. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 738 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Impacts: - VCSH possible through 01Z at KHUF - Low chance for brief fog at outlying terminals late tonight Discussion: Mainly VFR conditions to continue across central Indiana through Sunday evening as Canadian surface high pressure advances from the Dakotas to the Midwest. Cannot rule out a stray narrow downpour in the vicinity of KLAF or west of KHUF through 01Z this evening, but confidence only high enough to include at KHUF. Otherwise, sustained winds to fall below 7KT at outlying terminals by 01Z... with west-northwest flow becoming light, if not variable by 06Z. Fog/BR is possible at the outlying sites late tonight under mostly clear skies and low dew point depressions amid cooler conditions. Mainly FEW/SCT decks expected Sunday amid light to moderate northwest breezes that will gust up to 13-17KT by late afternoon, especially at KLAF/KIND. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ AVIATION...AGM DISCUSSION...Puma  680 FXUS63 KLMK 222338 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 738 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry and pleasant conditions are expected for Sunday through Tuesday. * Warmer temperatures (mid to upper 80s) and low rain chances return by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 146 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Conditions are dry and partly to mostly sunny this afternoon. A weak cold front has pushed into portions of northern and western KY early this afternoon. A mid and upper level shortwave trough is digging southeast over the Great Lakes, placing the Lower OH Valley in the exit region of a 45-50 kt northwesterly 500 mb jet over the Midwest. Low-level moisture continues to pool ahead of the cold front, with sfc dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. There is some drier air aloft, which will limit convective coverage this afternoon (peak PW axis of 1.4-1.5 inches in a relatively narrow corridor). The lowest levels continue to gradually warm and destabilize, with sfc temperatures in the low to mid 80s. MLCAPE is forecast to reach 2000-2500 J/kg across central KY, along and south of the frontal boundary. We are now seeing the beginnings of very isolated convective initiation across SW Ohio and eastern KY this afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered convection should fill in further SW along the cold front through mid-afternoon. Our highest PoPs (30-50% chance) remain focused over the Bluegrass Region, with the 30% contour stretching as far southwest as Bowling Green. Expect little, if any, convection west of I-65, however. The stronger mid-level flow streaming in from the NW will help boost deep-layer shear to 25-30 kts this afternoon. This would be enough for a loosely organized muticell cluster or two, again most likely in the Bluegrass Region. While strong to severe storms should be fairly sparse, the strongest cells will be capable of marginally severe hail and wind. The main time frame for isolated to widely scattered storms is 2-7 PM EDT. The cold front pushes well southeast of the area tonight. High pressure at the surface builds southeast over the Midwest through Sunday. The arrival of cooler, drier air from the northwest will make for a very pleasant end to the weekend. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 60s early Sunday morning. Sunday looks partly sunny, with a building SCT cumulus field during the afternoon. Expect afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. Early Monday morning, temperatures are forecast to dip into the 55-60 degree range. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 146 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Mainly dry conditions continue into early next week. Monday looks like a beautiful day, with relatively low humidity and afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. A weak mid-level shortwave trough zipping through NW flow will move over the region late Monday. However, a sfc warm front is forecast to set up to our southwest and keep higher rain chances focused across portions of MO, AR, and TN. Highs on Tuesday should reach the mid 80s. The latest model guidance pushes a warm front a little further north into central KY by Wednesday. With the development of broad upper level troughing, this could be enough for isolated to scattered showers and storms Wednesday afternoon and evening. An upper level trough continues to amplify in tandem with a sfc low across the Great Lakes heading into Thursday. This system should drag a cold front through the region on Thursday, bringing at least a small chance (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid and upper 80s will be common Wednesday through the end of the forecast period. A few of our warmer spots may touch 90 on Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the cold front. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 738 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A cold front has pushed through the HNB/SDF/LEX TAF sites, and is poised to make it through RGA/BWG shortly. In addition, scattered thunderstorms have diminished with the loss of heating. So, the only notable weather left this evening will be the gusty NW winds that will hang on for another hour or two. Winds will then steadily drop off overnight, with perhaps some fog development toward dawn. Models continue to hint at some MVFR vis restrictions possible, however drier air will be filtering in so confidence is not high in that scenario. Stayed optimistic for now, and will continue to monitor. VFR prevails into Sunday with steady NW winds continuing. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EBW LONG TERM...EBW AVIATION...BJS  743 FXUS62 KTBW 222340 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 740 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid conditions continue. - Onshore flow will lead to scattered showers and storms over the Gulf Sunday morning that move inland during the afternoon. && .UPDATE... Issued at 737 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 It has been a relatively quiet afternoon and evening across west central and southwest Florida with scattered showers and isolated storms. The highest observed winds were 41 mph at Winter Haven this afternoon, otherwise highest winds were around 20-25 mph in storms. The radar continues to show some showers and storms along the Nature Coast, eastern Gulf waters and eastern Polk, but latest HRRR guidance has things quieting down over the next few hours with mostly rain-free conditions expected overnight. With continued west- southwest flow, some showers and storms will be possible over the eastern Gulf waters early morning, moving along the coast by mid- morning and then farther inland during the afternoon. Forecast looks good for now with no changes needed at this time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 737 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions and onshore west-southwest winds less than 10 knots will prevail through the period. Shower and storm chances increase along the coast by mid-morning, moving inland through the day. Will cover this with VCTS starting after 14Z for TPA/PIE/SRQ and after 17Z for LAL. Rain and storm chances remain low for PGD/FMY/RSW, so will keep them rain-free for now. && .MARINE... Issued at 737 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 West to southwest winds will remain over the waters for the next couple of days, with no headlines expected. Scattered showers and storms are forecast each day, mainly during the overnight and morning hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 80 90 78 92 / 20 50 10 20 FMY 79 94 78 95 / 0 20 10 30 GIF 75 95 74 96 / 10 30 10 20 SRQ 78 91 77 92 / 10 30 10 20 BKV 74 91 73 94 / 20 60 10 30 SPG 80 89 79 91 / 20 40 10 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Wynn DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hurt  830 FXUS63 KBIS 222341 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 641 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low to medium chances for showers/thunderstorms push over the area at various times late tonight through Sunday night, possibly lingering over parts of the area into Monday. - A few storms may be strong to severe over southwest and south central North Dakota Sunday, far western North Dakota Sunday night, and central and eastern North Dakota on Monday. - Near to slightly above average temperatures remain in the forecast through the upcoming week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The ongoing forecast looks good at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Current surface analysis places broad high centered over southern Manitoba into the eastern Dakotas, while a low is starting to develop to the lee of the Rockies. Upper level analysis places high over New Mexico, with ridge running northward generally to the lee of the Rockies. Over our area, light winds remain over most locations, though are becoming southeasterly and increasing over our southwest in response to the developing low. For tonight, surface high pushes east with south-southeasterly winds on the increase, particularly over western areas. On Sunday, south-southeasterly winds will continue over the area resulting in increasing low-level moisture and higher humidity values. Of note will be increasing instability values over southwestern into south central North Dakota, with some guidance noting CAPE values exceeding 2000 J/Kg, though guidance is keeping deep layer shear marginal and also possibly capped given the possible limited heating due to mid-level cloud cover. Therefore, will keep severe threat marginal at this point focused mainly over the southwest/south central. As we get into Monday night, the next thunderstorm threat pushes in from Montana late as another short wave makes its approach, again posing a marginal severe threat. Chances then spread east through the day on Monday as the wave and surface trough/front slide easterly. Again, guidance is suggesting elevated instability as we get into primarily central/eastern North Dakota with marginal shear, but then timing of this system comes into play. Therefore, will continue to focus on the marginal threat. On Tuesday, western ridge remains in place but a very compact short wave/low slides down the face of the ridge, but at this point only looks to graze our northeastern areas. Therefore, most locations are expected to remain mild and dry, though some precipitation chances will be in place mainly around the Turtle Mountains. Ridge to the west slowly creeps east and remains the dominating factor keeping temperatures near to above average through the remainder of the forecast, though a few waves pushing through do bring occasional precipitation chances. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR ceilings and visibility are present and should persist through most of tonight. However, a few showers and thunderstorms may enter western North Dakota later tonight, which could result in isolated categorical reductions in ceilings and/or visibility. Higher shower and thunderstorm chances are then forecast through the day Sunday for western through central North Dakota. However, model guidance is not consistent at all in regard to location or timing for thunderstorm activity. The highest chances seem to favor western and south central North Dakota during the day time. However, thunderstorms may also impact the north central. Currently impacts over the north central are favored Sunday evening after the period, but wouldn't be completely surprised if a few didn't occur earlier during the afternoon anyways. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Telken DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...Telken  907 FXUS63 KGID 222343 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 643 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions this afternoon continue on into this evening, before chances for showers and storms ramp back up from west- to-east...mainly after midnight into Sunday morning. Severe weather is not anticipated. - Precipitation and cloud cover look to linger longer into the day on Sunday, especially across the eastern half of the forecast area. This impacts forecast highs, which range from the mid 70s east to mid 80s west. Another disturbance brings additional storm chances Sunday night, mainly focused across NNE portions of the area. Again severe weather is not anticipated. - The new work week sounds a lot like the previous one...with periodic upper level shortwave disturbances working through the continued northwesterly flow across the region. This will keep precipitation chances in the forecast each day...remaining mainly focused in the evening/overnight hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Currently... The day started out on the wet side for a good chunk of the forecast area...as yet another upper level shortwave disturbance (aided by increased lower-level convergence) made its way across the region...with a couple spots producing wind gusts around 60 MPH. That activity exited the area around mid- morning...leaving behind a pretty nice day with plenty of sun. Upper air and satellite data showing continued northwesterly flow in place across the Central Plains this afternoon as the pattern remains well amplified across the CONUS. The main ridge axis extends north through the Rockies from high pressure centered mainly over CO/NM...sandwiched between areas of low pressure/southward extending troughing over northern Ontario and just off the Pac NW coast. At the surface...a large area of high pressure is centered over near the ND/Canada border, with its axis extending south roughly along the MO River. This is keeping winds across the forecast area easterly, with speeds on the lighter side, around 10-15 MPH. No big surprises as far as temperatures go...with mid afternoon readings in the low-mid 80s. This evening on into Sunday... Quiet conditions this afternoon will continue on into the evening hours, before precipitation chances ramp back up later tonight. Off to our west...radar and satellite imagery showing scattered storms developing over the Rockies, as another shortwave disturbance rides around the edge of the ridge, and aided by east-southeasterly lower-level upslope flow. The main question as the late evening-overnight hours pass is how much of this activity is sustained long enough to move into our forecast area. Kept the forecast dry through 06Z...and some of the hi-res models suggest it'd be even later than that by a few hours before activity creeps into our western edge. Aided by lift along an increased, but not overly strong, SSErly low level jet...models are in pretty good agreement showing at least scattered activity making it into the forecast area. The timing may end up not too different than last night with the onset being around 09Z...but models suggest that activity lingers around the area longer, potentially not until early-mid afternoon before sliding off to our east. This activity is not expected to be severe...models still showing that while deeper layer shear isn't bad (30-35ish kts), the main axis of better instability focused just off to our west...so the SPC Day 1 outlook areas remain both west and south of the area. Once the activity pushes east, the rest of the day Sunday is dry, but will likely see more cloud cover linger longer into the day...especially across the eastern half of the area. This would impacthigh potential for the day...forecast currently has mid 70s in the east to mid 80s in the west (where more sun is possible). Between the sfc high shifting more to our east and low pressure deepening over the High Plains...winds are expected to turn more southerly for Sunday...with the potential for gusts near 20 MPH across areas mainly west of HWY 281. Later Sunday night into the overnight hours...little overall change in the upper level pattern means there will the potential for yet another shortwave disturbance to bring additional storm chances to the area. Main difference during this period is that models still suggesting this disturbance tracks a bit further north (as does better convergence along the LLJ)...and along with warmer mid-level temps the further SW you go, result in these chances more of a glancing shot, focused across the NNErn third or so of the forecast area. Severe weather chances remain low through Sunday night- early Mon AM. Monday and on... Outside of any lingering activity early in the morning, the daytime and at least early evening hours on Monday remain dry. Models showing little movement in the location of the main upper level area high of high pressure and northward extending ridging into the Rockies...but do show that area of low pressure currently off the Pac NW pushing further inland...sliding through the southern half of Saskatchewan during the daytime hours. Precipitation chances do return to the forecast late Monday night-Tuesday AM...but remain low (20-30 percent) as models vary with how much (if any?) activity impacts the forecast area, with the better upper level forcing well to our NW. Later Tuesday (more the evening/overnight hours) may bring better thunderstorm chances to the area...as that main upper low is working its way more into MN, with the trough axis draped further SW into the region. Storms may initially focus along an accompanying sfc frontal boundary (though it's not a strong one)...later aided by an increasing LLJ. Still plenty of uncertainty and details to iron out...as being this far south of the main upper low doesn't do the precip coverage any favors, and with the sfc front and LLJ potentially not overly strong, there are difference with just much activity there ends up being. The rest of the week continues to sound like a broken record...upper level pattern remaining northwesterly (potentially more zonal next weekend), with periodic shortwave disturbances bringing additional precipitation chances (mainly focused in the evening/overnight hours). As far as temperatures go for the new work week...not any significant changes, and not expecting any notable swings. Forecast highs remain mainly in the 80s, with some 90s working into WSWrn areas. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Mostly clear skies are expected through the evening, with light ESE winds around 7-10kt. The main impact of the TAF forecast is the chance of thunderstorms late tonight/early tomorrow morning. Most CAMs are suggesting thunderstorms to move in from the W/NW between roughly 10-15Z for KEAR and 11-16Z for KGRI, though exact timing and coverage is a little uncertain. Furthermore, recent HRRR runs have some lingering showers following this main line. However, there is quite a bit of uncertainty with how/if this pans out, hence the absence from the TAF. After the morning precipitation, dry conditions are expected 18Z onward, with skies clearing into the afternoon hours. Afternoon winds will be SSE around 10-12kt, with gusts up to 20kt possible. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...Scott  860 FXUS64 KHUN 222342 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 642 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 641 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - A few thunderstorms may impact the western portion of north AL this evening. Brief strong wind gusts and frequent lightning will be the primary hazards. - There are low to medium chances of thunderstorms for much of next week. However, timing and impact confidence remains low at this time. && .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms was dropping southeast through southwest TN into northern MS and will clip northwest AL between now and 10 pm. A few of the CAMS suggest a further east progression as well. Since the airmass is a bit drier and less unstable over the TN Valley with dew points in the 60s to lower 70s, a weakening trend may develop with time. The primary hazard from these thunderstorms will be gusty winds and frequent lightning. Late tonight, a clear to partly cloud sky is expected with lows in the mid 60s northeast to around 70 southwest. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Sunday will be a sunny and less humid day as high pressure expands into the OH and TN valleys from the upper Midwest. Highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90 with dew points falling into the lower to middle 60s. Northwesterly flow at 5h will bring a series of weak disturbances southeast Sunday night into Tuesday. A pronounced low to mid level theta-E gradient and convergence zone will lie from MO through northeast AR into northern MS into western AL during this time, keeping our are susceptible to at least low chances of showers or thunderstorms. These would be higher based/elevated in nature. The chances will be greatest (30-50%) on Tuesday. Highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90 with lows mainly in the 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 We will continue to be in a northwest flow regime aloft for most of the long term period. However, by Saturday, this pattern begins to break down as the upper trough to the north/northeast flattens and the upper ridge over the Desert Southwest flattens as well and pushes farther east into the ArkLaTex. A lingering surface boundary will also persist over the Southeast into Thursday before what looks like a reinforcing cold front swings through. By late week and into the first part of next weekend high pressure builds over the Appalachians and Ohio Valley. Overall, highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s will be common through the period. In addition, the above pattern will lead to daily chances of showers and storms from Tuesday through Thursday at least. Expecting lower chances come Friday/Saturday. The best chances look to be during the afternoon and evening hours, during peak heating when storms can take advantage of the greater thermodynamics in place. Ample instability in addition to bulk shear between 20-30 knots, 0-3km lapse rates between 7-8 deg C/km, along with DCAPE around or above 1000 J/kg, will warrant us keeping an eye on the forecast for at least strong to severe downburst potential Wednesday and Thursday. As has been the case recently, the main hazards are likely to be damaging winds, frequent lightning, and perhaps some hail (but freezing levels may be too high). As for heavy rain and flooding concerns, this will need to be monitored as well, since most PWATS are generally between 1.7-2.0 inches Tuesday through Thursday. These values are between the 75th and 90th percentiles when compared to BMX Sounding Climatology, which means that showers and storms will be efficient rainfall producers. Stay weather aware especially if you work outside or have outdoor activities and check back for forecast updates! && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 508 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 There is a low chance of TSRA this evening, mainly in northwest AL including KMSL. Gusty winds and frequent lightning are the primary hazards. Once these TSRA move southeast of the area by 06Z, VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the period. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...17 SHORT TERM....17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...17  006 FXUS62 KRAH 222345 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 745 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Nothing significant && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 215 PM Saturday... 1) A chance of mostly general thunderstorms will linger through this evening, with a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk of a severe cell or two over the Piedmont (especially the nw Piedmont). 2) Drier air will move into the region from the north on Sunday, lowering the relative humidity. A chance of showers will return to the forecast by mid-week, with the most likely day for rain being Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... As of 215 PM Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1... A chance of mostly general thunderstorms will linger through this evening, with a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk of a severe cell or two over the Piedmont (especially the nw Piedmont). Within a synoptic trough amplifying from cntl Canada to the srn Appalachians, a lead mid/upr-level impulse now over ern TN will pivot across the wrn Carolinas through this evening, then lift newd and across and offshore the srn Middle Atlantic through early Sun. Related weak height falls (10-30 meters) and modest mid/level cooling 1-2 C at 500 mb) will result over cntl NC through tonight. At the surface, weak high pressure and divergence have been over cntl NC today, as have widespread low cloudiness and stability, between a pair of quiasi-stationary fronts draped across sern NC through cntl SC/GA and another over n-cntl VA. A separate surface cold front related to the approaching synoptic trough, now stretching from MI swwd into the mid MS Valley, will likely spread east of the Blue Ridge early Sun. The presence of the lingering high and stability over cntl NC will likely yield just a scattering of weak cells over cntl NC through this evening. The exception will be over the Piedmont (especially the nw Piedmont), where the aforementioned mid-level height falls and cooling will be maximized and accompanied by an increase in mid/upr-level swly flow. Hodographs will consequently become elongated over the Piedmont through this evening, mostly above 5-6 km and with some counter-clockwise curvature. Cells there may locally strengthen and offer a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps even some hail given both the cooling mid-levels and a conditional risk of a few splitting cells (with left-moving ones favored). KEY MESSAGE 2... Drier air will move into the region from the north on Sunday, lowering the relative humidity. A chance of showers will return to the forecast by mid-week, with the most likely day for rain being Thursday. While the air won't be particularly moist Sunday morning, it should be noticeably drier later in the day as a cold front pushes through. While dewpoints may remain in the mid to upper 60s in the southeastern part of the forecast area by sunset, dewpoints should drop into the mid to upper 50s in the Triad, a pleasant change for late August. While the southern tip of Sampson County could see an isolated thunderstorm Sunday or Monday, the rest of the area will be dry. Sunday's cold front will hang up along the Gulf Coast for the first half of the week before pushing back to the north on Wednesday and Thursday, becoming nearly stationary over North Carolina. Expect a chance of showers/storms in all locations Wednesday, with the greatest chance occurring on Thursday. It appears that the front should then slide closer to the coast on Friday and Saturday, leaving more scattered precipitation coverage across central North Carolina on those two days. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 745 PM Saturday... 24 hour TAF period: Still a chance for the convection upstream of KINT/KGSO to make it to/near those terminals in the next several hours, so held onto the tempos there. With the moist airmass otherwise in place across the area tonight, patchy fog and low stratus development is possible, mainly at KFAY, but also perhaps making it to KRDU and KRWI, ahead of a cold front that will approach from the west and move across the area early Sun. Outlook: High pressure and associated dry, continental air will build across the OH Valley and Middle Atlantic and favor mostly VFR conditions in cntl NC through Tue, before moisture and lift increase, and the chance of convection returns, by Wed-Thu. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWS/Green AVIATION...10/MWS  959 FXUS63 KGRR 222344 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 744 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms this Afternoon - Cooler with Slight Chances (20 percent) for Showers Sunday - Midweek Rain Chances && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms this Afternoon The upper level trough will continue to move through lower Michigan today. The front is currently around a Midland to Battle Creek line and shifting east. Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front before it clears later this afternoon. We'll still be under the upper level trough until tonight with some positive vorticity advection moving through the flow. Moisture is limited, but can't rule out an isolated shower this evening. Northwest winds pick up behind the front with gusts around 20 to 30 mph before the inversion builds in this evening. Warmer lake temperatures with dropping 850mb temperatures may keep the air mass unstable enough along the lakeshore for some spotty showers into early Sunday (20 percent chance). - Cooler with Slight Chances (20 percent) for Showers Sunday The upper level low will remain over the eastern Great Lakes continuing some slight chances (20 percent) in the northwest flow. Another surge of positive vorticity advection is expected to move through the afternoon which could add additional support for shower development along with some diurnal shallow instability. The best chances will be north of I-96 and taper off Sunday evening. Northwest winds will continue to be breezy with gusts to 30 mph during the day. Temperatures will be a little cooler than today with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. - Midweek Rain Chances A shortwave ridge moves in for the beginning of next week but it will be short lived. Heights begin to fall with the approaching trough Wednesday into Thursday. Warm air advection may spark off showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, otherwise the best chances (50 to 70 percent) hold off until Wednesday night when the trough axis is expected to move through. A lull is possible Thursday morning before chances increase (30 to 50 percent) again with the daytime heating Thursday afternoon. Monday will be the coolest day of next week with highs in the 70s. Temperatures then warm into the low 80s for the rest of the week. Low temperatures will largely be in the 50s with some spots dropping into the 40s Monday and Tuesday morning. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 740 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Pesky/stubborn showers and thunderstorms continue across parts of West Michigan early this evening, as cooler air aloft slowly works into the region. TAFs will support a risk for convection through 01-02Z at LAN and MKG, though restrictions should be limited. With setting sun, lingering clouds /should/ diminish with clear to partly cloudy skies /VFR WX/ for the duration of the night. NW wind gusts to around 20 kt at 00Z will also quickly diminish. Caveat to tonights quiet weather... and as previously discussed, with 850 mb temps falling to 7-8C and water temperatures of +21-22C, influence of Lake Michigan will need to be monitored overnight, especially at MKG. Some lake clouds and even a pop up lake effect shower will be possible overnight, but is not reflected in any TAFs at this time. With much cooler air aloft, expect an uptick in CU /3-5kft/ after 14-15Z Sunday areawide, and NW wind gusts of 20-25 kt will develop after 14-15Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 High Swim Risk and Small Craft Advisory conditions continue through Sunday. Northwest winds with gusts to 30 knots will cause waves to continue to build into Sunday with wave heights peaking around 5 to 7 feet Sunday afternoon. Waterspouts will also be possible tonight into early Sunday morning with the best chances toward southern Lake Michigan. Winds and waves slowly come down Sunday night into Monday. Another period of Small Craft Advisory and High Swim Risk conditions is possible Wednesday along with our next chance for showers and thunderstorms. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for MIZ037-043- 050-056-064-071. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...Smith MARINE...RAH  124 FXUS62 KMFL 222346 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 746 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 741 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Smoke from wildfires in the area could produce lower visibilities over portions of the Everglades and western suburbs overnight. && .UPDATE... Issued at 741 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Minor updates from earlier to account for wildfire smoke which could retreat back towards the western suburbs overnight. Will continue to monitor plumes to see if reduced visibilities materialize which could impact roadways like US 41/Tamiami Trail, SR 997/Krome Avenue, US 27/Okeechobee Road, etc. Otherwise, forecast is on track with no additional updates planned. Have a great evening! && .UPDATE... Issued at 651 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 With the increasingly isolated nature of instability and the upcoming loss of insolation, the window for additional convective activity is coming to a timely end across the region as the one, two combo of overspreading cold pools and anvil debris act to suppress the threat of additional convective development outside of a few spotty locales. With shower and thunderstorm activity coming to a conclusion in short order, attention overnight will turn to the continuation of a robust bout of wildfire development and growth across the region even while isolated thunderstorms have propagated across South Florida yet again today. The development of a nocturnal inversion and stratification overnight may keep smoke close to the ground which could result in pockets of reduced air quality across portions of the western east coast metro. A new wildfire has recently been picked up on KAMX (Miami Radar) and has been documented by the Florida Forest Service just west of the intersection of Krome and US-27 in northern Miami-Dade County. This wildfire as well as several others actively burning in southwestern Miami-Dade County could produce smoke as they smolder overnight. This threat of reduced air quality and/or inland visibility will be monitored overnight. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 There has not been much change in the pattern evolution for this weekend. From a synoptic standpoint, the ridge in the Southwestern US continues to strengthen and allows for increased jet dynamics to strengthen the trough over the Eastern Seaboard. The base of the trough is still not expected to make it into South Florida and the overall flow pattern will remain largely on the weaker side, but this enhanced troughing pattern is expected to keep a prevailing southerly/south-southwesterly flow pattern in place through the weekend. Therefore, with deep moisture advection continuing and elevated PWATs of 1.7-2.0" or even more in some areas, diurnal heating and sea breeze circulations each day will have the necessary ingredients to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. With the primary south to south-southwest flow, this will favor interior and Southeast Florida for highest rain chances this weekend as showers and storms are expected to be the most widespread in these areas. The most robust activity will occur in the later afternoon during peak diurnal heating and once the sea breeze boundaries advance inland. Model soundings do highlight adequate SBCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg as well as inverted-V signatures and steep low level lapse rates leading to DCAPE values of 1000-1200 J/kg, so there will be an outside chance for an isolated severe storm or two via gusty winds again both days this weekend. Otherwise, the primary hazards will continue to be heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flooding in poor drainage areas, and sub-severe strong wind gusts. High temperatures this weekend will remain in the low to mid 90s. The deeper moisture will also keep dew points in the mid to upper 70s for most areas each day, thus maximum heat index values are anticipated to remain elevated up to the 105-110F range. With the expectation of some increased cloud cover and an earlier initiation time for convection to develop, have opted to not issue a Heat Advisory today, which will end the streak of 13 consecutive days with at least a portion of the region being under a Heat Advisory unless a short-fused one is issued later today. HREF probabilities highlight a 10-20% or less chance for heat indices to reach 105F or higher at any point of day, which is even lower for occurring over two or more consecutive hours. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 As the trough draped across the Eastern Seaboard starts to erode early next week, the local wind regime will start to shift back to what we typically see in the summer time here in South Florida with low level flow being dominated by the Atlantic sea breeze. This will cause diurnal convection to start focusing back over both the interior and Southwest Florida rather than Southeast Florida like has been observed recently. Starting Monday, the highest rain chances (60-80%) will begin to focus across Southwest Florida and this will last through the end of the long term period. Other than the rain potential, there is also potential for another Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to impact the area early next week, but guidance highlights this SAL breaking up upon it's arrival and thus it's influence on a return to hot conditions should be less than the previous round. The SAL could lower rain chances for a day or two, but with this being a thinner layer that clears out much faster, not expecting there to be any days with limited to no rainfall across the region. High temperatures are projected to remain in the low to mid 90s each day. Overnight lows range from the low 70s across the interior and lake regions to the upper 70s and low 80s along the coastal metros. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 651 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Decreasing coverage of SHRA/TSRA will give way to VFR and dry conditions during most of the overnight period before a resurgence of SHRA and isolated TSRA may materialize along the east coast tomorrow morning. L/V winds overnight will enhance out of a light southwesterly direction at daybreak at all terminals before winds veer to a southeasterly component along the east coast. TEMPOs and amendments may be needed in future TAF forecasts for east coast terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Gentle west-southwest winds are expected across the Gulf waters this weekend with southeasterly winds across the Atlantic. Seas will remain at 1-2 feet or less each day across all local waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late each day and in the late night hours over the waters, which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 80 93 79 93 / 20 60 20 20 West Kendall 77 92 77 92 / 20 60 20 20 Opa-Locka 80 93 79 93 / 20 60 20 20 Homestead 79 92 78 92 / 20 50 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 80 92 79 91 / 20 50 20 20 N Ft Lauderdale 80 93 80 93 / 20 50 20 20 Pembroke Pines 81 93 80 93 / 20 50 20 20 West Palm Beach 78 94 78 93 / 10 50 10 20 Boca Raton 80 92 79 91 / 20 50 20 20 Naples 79 92 77 92 / 10 20 10 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...Hadi  128 FXUS63 KILX 222346 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 646 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Relatively benign weather is on tap for the upcoming week, with the primary chance for any rain around mid week. - Temperatures will not be out of the ordinary for this time of year, with high temperatures near 80 degrees Sunday and Monday creeping upward a bit through the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Diurnal cumulus development has been increasing across the northern CWA early this afternoon. While surface CAPE's in that area are around 2000 J/kg, mid level lapse rates are fairly low. Between that and dew points only in the low-mid 60s, any precipitation this afternoon should mainly be in the form of sprinkles. The dry air will result in a couple of pleasant nights, with lows around 60 tonight and mid-upper 50s Sunday night. The overall upper pattern over the next several days will favor a northwest flow into the Midwest, which will keep any significant heat or moisture surges at bay. The most interesting feature of note will be a shortwave diving southeast around mid week. With most of the available moisture near the Great Lakes, rain chances this far south will be more questionable, with 20-30% chances mainly centered on Wednesday night. Temperatures creep upward and are expected to reach the mid 80s by mid week, with enough moisture in place to get the heat index to around 90 in a few places. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 646 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Minimal impacts to aviation the next 24 hours. A gust front pushing through SPI in the next hour will create a wind shift to 030 with gusts to 18KT. Otherwise look for VFR conditions prevail the next 24 hours as northwest winds drop below 10kt toward sunset. A stray shower will pass DEC and could still bubble up near SPI early this eve. However, chances are quite low for wet travel surfaces at either airport. NW winds will continue tomorrow for the balance of the day in the 6 to 10KT range. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Geelhart DISCUSSION...Geelhart AVIATION...Shimon  116 FXUS64 KHGX 222346 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 646 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory remains in effect. Hot conditions will persist through next week. - Cannot rule out a rouge shower or thunderstorm at times into midweek, but chances will be quite low. - Temperatures VERY slightly ease late in the week along with the potential for some isolated rain chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Ridge will remain firmly in control well into the next week...limiting rain chances and keeping above normal temps in place. Daytime highs will be in the 100-104F range inland and 90-94 at the beaches. Heat index readings will peak in the 105-110F range and a Heat Advisory remains in place. Mid level heights will begin to ease somewhat Thursday into the weekend as the center of the ridge repositions itself slightly further wwd from New Mexico into the Desert Southwest. As such, we'll probably see temperatures ease just a tad (from the currently prevailing 100-104F down into the 98-101F range) and possibly the return of some low diurnally driven POPs. 47 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 614 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions prevail, across all TAF sites An outflow boundary is approaching the metro area, and could cause a brief wind shift out of the N/NW. In general winds prevail at 6-8 kts out of the SSW and become light and variable overnight. Winds settle in the WSW tomorrow morning, then increase to about 7-10 kts and swing to the SSE by tomorrow afternoon. Another round of intermittent MVFR/IFR CIGS are possible tonight, though are expected to be "FEW" and "SCT" in nature. MVFR VIS is possible, especially at KLBX where cooling overnight temps, increased moisture from onshore flow, and nearly calm winds are expected from about 10Z to 14Z. I have left out any mention of TS/SHRA for tomorrow, as CAMs show even less of a chance for precip for tomorrow afternoon. MLG && .MARINE... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Southwest to west winds late at night and in the mornings will become south 10 to 15 knots during the day as the seabreeze kicks in. Seas will be on the low side...1 to 3 feet. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 79 104 78 102 / 10 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 81 103 80 101 / 20 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 83 92 83 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...47 AVIATION...MLG MARINE...47  162 FXUS65 KBOU 222347 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 547 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 FXUS65 KBOU 221850 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1250 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Highest coverage of showers and storms expected today, along with a few severe storms and locally heavy rainfall this afternoon and evening. - Scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms through Thursday. A risk of a couple severe storms each day. - Temperatures settling back closer to (but still above) normal for Tuesday and Wednesday. - Gradual drying end of next week, with a trend to more summer heat through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/... Issued at 1249 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Satellite and radar shows pretty healthy convection developing across the Front Range Mountains and Foothills, while the airmass is still somewhat stable (per ACARS and SPC analysis) but increasingly moist over the plains. The increased moisture on the plains is being reinforced by a couple westerly moving surges, and dewpoints have held in the upper 50s and lower 60s east and north of Denver. The latest surge coming back through Elbert County will likely boost values over the Palmer Divide this afternoon, especially as we develop a surface cyclone in vicinity of Douglas or western Elbert County. That will aid moisture convergence and potential for convective initiation there, along with a risk of a landspout. Otherwise, stronger storms today will be capable of hail and strong winds, along with locally heavy rainfall as precipitable water (PW) values climb to 150-170% of normal and low level moisture remains abundant over the plains. As per typical, we still think the highest threat of strongest storms would be along/east of the convergence zone associated with the developing cyclone and points northward along/just east of I-25 - essentially covering all of the plains. A couple severe storms are likely due to MLCAPE increasing to 1200-2000 J/kg. Bulk shear is weak and less than 25-30 kts, however, so majority of the severe storms would tend to be pulse (brief). Storm motion will be rather slow at 15 mph or less given lack of flow aloft, which will lead to at least some minor flooding threats in a few spots. Overall progression will eventually be to the east across the plains into late evening, with potential for a generally weaker subsequent batch or two of storms behind the initial stronger ones that would have access to more instability. We still expect some gradual clearing overnight, but patchy stratus/fog possible across the plains given the very moist airmass. On Sunday, there is some drying noted as flow aloft turns a bit more westerly. However, we're not convinced we'll erode all the low level moisture across the plains. Even in the mountains we'll still see enough to spark scattered thunderstorms, and then those storms will likely intensify as they move onto the plains as they encounter a richer, more unstable airmass. Bulk shear profiles are still marginal, but a couple severe storms will be possible given sufficient MLCAPE of 1000-1800 J/kg. Similar weather conditions will likely persist into Monday with little change in the overall pattern, moisture, and instability profiles. Temperatures will be rather warm yet, with highs in the 90-95 degree range over the I-25 Corridor and plains. There is better agreement of a weak backdoor cool front or two for Tuesday and Wednesday, offering up a few degrees of cooling and potentially more active weather over the Front Range and plains. Thursday and Friday are shaping up to be transition days into a drier and warmer environment with progressively less storm coverage, especially by Friday. Ensemblesare consistent showing a return of summer heat for next weekend, with highs pushing into the mid 90s (30% chance of upper 90s) for the I-25 Corridor and plains as a stronger zonal flow aloft develops. That would also lead to increasing fire danger as we begin our journey toward autumn breezes. Unfortunately, temperatures will feel more like mid summer and humidities will drop in the drier westerly flow. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday/... Issued at 536 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Storms that have impacted DEN and APA have largely stabilized the atmosphere there. It remains possible this evening there will be light rain showers at DEN and APA through 05Z with a 10% chance lightning occurs. At BJC, the atmosphere still have some elevated instability to tap into and storms are possible through 02Z this evening with gusty winds the main threat. Otherwise, light southeast winds will transition to moderate drainage winds this evening and overnight. Normal wind patterns are expected throughout the day on Sunday with northwest winds in the morning and northeast in the afternoon. While there will be less low level moisture in place tomorrow and less coverage of storms, it still appears likely (60%) that an outflow boundary with gusty winds around 35 knots will impact all terminals mainly between 21-00Z. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...Danielson  188 FXUS61 KPBZ 222348 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 748 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes have been made to the forecast overall. There is still decent confidence in the timing and scope of thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening. Still, there risk for heavy rain/flooding has increased slightly, mainly north of I-80. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon may lead to scattered instances of damaging wind gusts, with hail being a secondary threat. 2) A marginal risk for damaging wind Sunday is tied to afternoon and evening convection near the I-80 corridor. 3) Outside of lingering showers Monday near Lake Erie, dry weather favored through mid next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Plenty of sunshine across the Upper Ohio Valley is allowing destabilization to take place ahead of a MCV tracking across southern Ohio. This will provide the support for lift along with an advancing prefrontal trough. By 18Z, MLCAPE increases into the 1000-1500 J/kg range at least according to RAP/REFS. This buoyancy will allow convection to increase in coverage during the early to middle afternoon hours. CAMs continue to support these ideas, with the stronger convection moving east of the region by 02Z-03Z, with a few lingering showers crossing with the main surface cold front shortly thereafter. The main severe risk remains damaging gusts. DCAPE is still pegged to remain in the 600-800 J/kg range and thus be marginally favorable for downbursts, and the best 0-6km/effective shear remains further down the Ohio Valley. So, we are likely not looking at a higher-end threat. Still, with initial discrete storms likely to conglomerate over time in multicell clusters/short lines, enough cold pool consolidation may occur to create some scattered instances of 55-65 MPH wind gusts given the healthy MLCAPE expectations. Large hail would be a secondary threat given the relatively weak shear and mid- level lapse rates, but may be possible in the strongest storms. Downpours/locally heavy rainfall totals remain possible as well, but the HREF suggests the greatest QPF potential lies just to our north and west closer to Lake Erie, and much of the I-80 corridor has higher flash flood guidance values than to the south. Precipitable water values are not excessively high (75-85th percentile) as well. Will continue to monitor, but will hold off on a Flood Watch for now. KEY MESSAGE 2... Mid-level troughing and cold advection lingers over the region on Sunday, which may support isolated/scattered shower and thunderstorms development during the peak heating hours of Sunday, mainly north of I-70. Although decreasing overall moisture depth should keep a cap on coverage, one or two strong to severe storms may be possible given the cooling temperatures aloft, if around 1000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE can develop as hi-res models suggest. KEY MESSAGE 3... Showers may linger north of I-80 and along the ridges (a cool- season type of setup) into Monday morning with ongoing cool northwest flow over a warm Lake Erie. Otherwise, high pressure and height rises aloft point to a prolonged (relatively speaking, in relation to the previous month) dry period to start next week. High temperature does start below seasonal averages on Monday before rising back near average by mid week. Long range ensembles currently favor Thursday as the next day with showers/thunderstorms as the next upper trough crosses. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity tapers off from west to east over the first few hours of the 00z TAF cycle as a cold front sweeps through the area (already approaching ZZV to start the period). Behind the front, a shift to westerly winds and drier air is forecast to settle in and keep most terminals at VFR through the remainder of the forecast, with the exception being along the ridges and north of I-80 where weak upslope and lingering showers from lake-enhancement may result in persistent stratocu with MVFR ceilings. Stratocu may linger through Sunday morning with ceilings teetering on the MVFR/VFR threshold until improving to VFR and scattering by afternoon/evening. Additional rounds of showers are possible during the day Sunday, primarily along and north of I-80; maintained PROB30s at FKL/DUJ to reflect that potential. Outlook... Precipitation chances linger in northwest PA into Monday before high pressure provides areawide VFR dry weather by Tuesday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CL AVIATION...Cermak  186 FXUS63 KUNR 222348 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 548 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Upper ridge will dominate the weather through next week. - Thunderstorm areal coverage will increase tonight and hang about into next week, although in the hit or miss variety. - Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms may occur during the later afternoon/evening hours today through Tuesday. - Temperatures will average 4-8F above normal. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday) Issued at 1236 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 18z surface analysis had weak high over the northern Plains into the middle MO river valley. Weak frontal boundary behind it from central MT into eastern CO. Patch of low stratus over western NE has been pushed northwestward on southeasterly winds along boundary leading to upper 50s Td/s across parts of northeastern WY. Water vapour matinee depicted shortwave ridge over the CWA, but shortwave trough hot on it's heels over eastern ID/western WY. Lift ahead of wave leading to some weak radar returns over northeastern WY, but nothing below 12kft per KGCC observation. Main concern this forecast is convection. Later this afternoon/evening, around 1500J/kg MLCAPE pools along frontal boundary with weak MLCIN. Shortwave overtops, which will assist convective initiation. Perhaps 20-30kt effective shear will be present, enough to support isolated strong/severe thunderstorms where SPC Day 1 Marginal in place. Storms will slowly move eastward across the CWA tonight, but in weaker fashion over western SD given less favorable environment. Temperatures will be near guidance. Sunday, aforementioned frontal boundary ends up over the western SD plains, influenced by tonight's convection/outflow. The further east it goes, the less the effect on the CWA. Right now, HREF suggests it'll settle over the eastern quarter of the CWA. 2KJ/kg CAPE pools along it with 30-40kts of 0-6km shear sufficient for strong/severe thunderstorms. Some CAM guidance suggests a supercell or two dropping south along the UNR/ABR border area late in the day. Temperatures will be near guidance. For Monday/Tuesday, disturbances rotating around the upper ridge will support additional chances for strong/severe convection given forecast shear/buoyancy profiles. The rest of next week looks less active as upper ridge/height rises more dominant. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Sunday Evening) Issued At 548 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Breezy southeast winds will continue into tonight, especially across northeast Wyoming, relaxing with time. Confidence remains low in thunderstorm potential and timing/evolution, as upper-level support remains off to the west and widespread cloud cover has kept things more stable this afternoon than anticipated. Best chance of storms remains across northeast Wyoming this evening, and have retained the PROB30 for KGCC through 04z/10pm. Some form of lingering showers or storms may be able to transition east across South Dakota overnight, with perhaps the best chances along and south of I-90. Brief vsby drops to MVFR along with gusty winds are the primary thunderstorm threats. Another round of isolated thunderstorms is likely Sunday afternoon, but there is currently significant disagreement among the models on pinning down when and where. The far eastern plains well east of Rapid City may be the best corridor to watch, but some CAMs also fire a cell or two off the Black Hills, with perhaps a cell or two arriving in northeast Wyoming as well by later in the evening. For now, confidence is too low to introduce any PROB30s, and will continue to monitor future updates in high-res guidance to see if better consensus forms. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Helgeson AVIATION...KSmith  235 FXUS66 KSGX 222349 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 449 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Monsoonal moisture will decrease this weekend, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for the mountains and lower deserts returning for Monday afternoon. Above average high and low temperatures will continue through next week. Widespread moderate to locally major HeatRisk for the coast, valleys, and mountains except near the beaches and for the higher elevations in the mountains, with major to extreme HeatRisk for the lower deserts. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... Another mostly clear day across the region. Over the San Bernardino Mountains, there is some cumulus development, though much less vertically developed than at this time yesterday. With southwesterly steering flow aloft and limited PWAT, chances for any showers this afternoon are around 10% over the southern San Diego County mountains and less elsewhere. The marine layer this morning was only around 500-1000 feet deep, yielding patchy fog west of the I-15 corridor down to the coastal mesas. This pattern should continue for at least the next few nights with the marine layer expanding a few hundred feet Sunday night then contracting again Monday night. Thunderstorm chances look rather limited throughout the entire forecast period; Monday being the only day with more than zero confidence for perhaps a few showers/thunderstorms as PWAT's may briefly rise above 1.3 inches. Model spread in PWAT values diverge quite significantly through the rest of the week, so precip chances remain uncertain. In terms of heat, the ridge of high pressure across the Four Corners Region is here to stay through the end of August. The ridge tightens ever so slightly Sunday, allowing temperatures to back off a few degrees inland and in the deserts for Monday afternoon before slowly expanding and intensifying again through the middle of the week. Highs increase 2 to 4 degrees into Tuesday, then another few degrees into Wednesday with a net increase of 5 to 10 degrees over these two days (4-8 above average Monday to 10-14 above average Wednesday). These very hot temperatures stick around until at least Friday with limited guidance showing any weakening of the ridge through the end of the 7-day forecast period. HeatRisk for the inland valleys increase from predominantly moderate through Tuesday to Major through Friday. For coastal areas and higher elevations, HeatRisk transitions from Minor through Monday to Moderate and locally Major (all the way to the beaches) for the remainder of the week. The combination of hot daytime temperatures with overnight temperatures struggling to drop below the lower 70s will especially affect those without access to air conditioning. In raw numbers, Monday highs look like... ... 80s at the coast, 90s inland, 100-105F in the IE and around 110F in the lower deserts. Wed/Thurs/Fri highs look like... ... upper 80s/low 90s at the coast, 95-105F inland, 105-110F in the IE and 114-117F in the lower deserts. The Heat Advisory for inland areas through 10 AM Tuesday is then followed by an Extreme Heat Watch through Friday 8 PM for the whole region, except for the lower deserts which are already in an Extreme Heat Warning through Friday evening. Take breaks in the shade, hydrate and seek A/C when possible! && .AVIATION... 222330Z...Coast...Mostly clear skies over the majority of the coast with just a few clouds based around 1,000ft MSL over south SD. Low to moderate (20-40%) chances of cigs returning after 04Z this evening. Confidence higher on cigs impacting coastal SD between 09- 15Z Sun with bases 500-1,000ft MSL. Locally lower cigs near 200- 400ft MSL in higher terrain. Expect lower Vis of 2-4 sm for most areas along the coast at times, locally below 1 sm. Clouds clear 14- 16Z. Otherwise...VFR conditions through the TAF period with mostly clear skies through 18Z. Mid/high clouds AOA 20,000ft MSL expected east of the mountains in the afternoon Sunday. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday. Increasing south swell mid to late next week starting Wednesday with waves up to 6 feet. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Friday evening for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Orange County Coastal Areas- Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys- Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Heat Advisory until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for Coachella Valley- San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Westerink AVIATION/MARINE...Villafane  274 FXUS64 KOHX 222350 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 650 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 636 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for portions of the Cumberland Plateau until 10 PM. - Slightly below-normal temperatures, particularly overnight, this weekend into early next week. - Low to medium rain and storm chances most days next week with && .UPDATE... Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms continues to dive southeast across the Cumberland Plateau this evening where a severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 10 PM. The atmosphere is characterized by high downdraft CAPE, 30 kts of bulk shear, and larger dew point depressions at the surface with steep low-level lapse rates...all things that point to a damaging wind threat. Mid-level lapse rates have struggled a bit more, ranging between 6 to 6.2 C/km, though given ample instability, storms have been able to mature quickly. Activity will wind down with the loss of daytime heating and the overnight hours will be quiet. Some areas of patchy dense fog will be likely, especially over the Plateau. Tomorrow will be just a few degrees cooler thanks to tonight's cold front with highs ranging in the mid to upper 80s, possibly hitting 90 in a few spots. More noticeably will be the lower humidity as feel-like temperatures will be pretty close to the actual temperature in most places. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A broad upper-level trough remains in place across the eastern CONUS today. An embedded disturbance is now advancing southeast through the Ohio Valley with an associated front now along the Ohio River making its way toward Middle Tennessee. Though it is relatively dry currently, slight moistening is expected ahead of the front as it approaches Middle Tennessee during peak afternoon heating. This will support increasing surface-based instability (2,000-3,000 J/kg) this afternoon within a nice corridor of mid- level flow (~40 kts). As a result, any storms that form and maintain this afternoon and evening will pose a threat for damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail up to quarter size. This band of convection should mainly be limited to 3 PM to 9 PM across Middle Tennessee and greatest overall chances are for areas east of I-65. The rest of the short-term looks dry and stable as we remain in northwest flow aloft and amidst an area of drier air behind the front moving through tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Cooler overnights and mornings will persist through early next week thanks to drier air in place. Higher terrain across the Plateau are forecast to have lows in the upper 50s Monday and Tuesday mornings. Troughing will make a slow progression to the east mid to late next week. This should open the door for an increase in moisture from the west. Continued mid- to upper-level flow will persist from the northwest providing a corridor for shortwaves to move through the area. These passing disturbances support the low to medium rain and storm chances most days next week. Temperatures are generally near seasonal norms. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A cluster of thunderstorms will impact CSV over the next hour or two, otherwise VFR conditions prevail for all taf sites. A cold front is laid across Middle TN right now that is resulting in a gradual northerly wind shift. Winds will relax below 10 kts in the coming hours with high clouds passing through overnight. Areas of dense fog will be likely at CSV and SRB overnight, burning off after sunrise. Winds will remain northerly through the day Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 64 89 62 88 / 20 0 0 0 Clarksville 63 86 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 60 82 57 83 / 30 0 0 0 Columbia 66 90 63 90 / 30 0 0 0 Cookeville 62 83 59 83 / 30 0 0 0 Jamestown 61 82 58 82 / 20 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 65 88 62 88 / 20 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 65 90 62 89 / 30 0 0 0 Waverly 65 87 63 87 / 20 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Baggett SHORT TERM...Sizemore LONG TERM....Sizemore AVIATION.....Baggett  369 FXUS63 KAPX 222352 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 752 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms continue into this evening. Locally heavy rain and lightning will be the main threats. Severe storms are not expected. - Cool, breezy, and scattered rain showers Sunday. - Dry weather expected to start next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1202 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Pattern Synopsis: Troughing draped across much of the eastern half of the continent will continue to amplify this weekend as a strong jet digs across the northern Great Plains/Midwest today, rounding the base of the trough over the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic tonight and Sunday. Strong divergence aloft will provide continued support for the surface cyclone stretching from Hudson Bay down into the Great Lakes as it works east this weekend. Ridging sliding over the northern Great Plains/Canadian Plains will help build surface high pressure into the Great Lakes on the backside of this system through the first half of the week. Troughing then looks to move back into the region by the end of the work week. Forecast Details: A line of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move east across northeast lower this afternoon into this evening. Cannot completely rule out some stray showers across other areas, but the bulk of showers/storms will remain east of I-75 into the early evening hours coinciding with the weak cold front passage. As has been the case so far today, the primary focus with this activity will be heavy downpours and lightning -- with reports of over 2" of rainfall in localized areas so far. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out, but severe storms are not anticipated given weak shear in place. As a cooler, relatively moist airmass overspreads the area with northwest low-level flow behind the front, additional isolated to scattered rain showers will be possible beginning late this evening and continuing at times through Sunday. In fact, our first true taste of fall may be Sunday. Northwest winds will increase to 10-15 mph with gusts to 25-35 mph at times through the day with noticeably cooler temperatures during the day. Little daytime warming is anticipated given northwest flow and cloud cover/shower activity -- likely keeping temperatures in the low to mid 60s through the afternoon. Right in line with the fall feel will be the potential for some waterspouts over the Great Lakes nearshore waters this weekend given the cool, moist air passing over the relatively warmer lake surface. Looking into the work week, rain chances will come to an end by Monday with dry weather in store through the first half of the week as high pressure builds in. Cooler temperatures in the low to mid 70s are expected on Monday before warming back into the upper 70s and low 80s through the rest of the week. Rain chances look to return on Wednesday, but may hold off until late Wednesday as some of the latest guidance has trended slower on arrival time in most recent runs. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 745 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ISO -SHRA to few -TSRA to continue in the near term, most diminishing at about 00Z to 02Z. Northwest winds will be breezy/elevated through the night, likely inhibiting fog for most locations. Mix of low VFR to MVFR later tonight and into Sunday. KAPN most likely to see a period of consistently MVFR CIGs late tonight into early Sunday. ISO to SCT -SHRA possible again on Sunday midday onward, with northwest winds increasing to 10-15G20-25KTs most locations. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for LHZ346. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT Monday for LHZ347-348. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Monday for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342- 344. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Sunday night for LMZ345-346. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322. && $$ DISCUSSION...DJC AVIATION...JLD  458 FXUS61 KCLE 222354 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 754 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe weather threat and flash flooding threat has subsided as storms move off to the east. The Severe Thunderstorm and Flood Watches have be canceled. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Below average temperatures arrive to end the weekend and start the upcoming week. Periodic lake-enhanced rain showers will primarily impact portions of Northeast OH and Northwest PA late tonight through at least Monday night, with a few showers or storms elsewhere Sunday afternoon/evening. 2 A period of dry and quiet weather is expected the first half of the week. Scattered showers thunderstorms return Wednesday night into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... After pulling a cold front across the area this evening, the surface low and upper trough across the central/eastern Great Lakes will continue to deepen through Sunday while beginning to stack, cut-off, and slow. The system will then start to slowly fill/weaken Sunday night and Monday while drifting to the east- northeast across southeastern Canada and New England. The seasonably chilly airmass pulled in behind the cold front and lingering moist cyclonic flow behind the stacking surface low/ upper trough will give us an early taste of fall to end the weekend and start the week...including some lake-enhanced rain. 850mb temperatures will bottom out at 6-9C Sunday night into early Monday, with 700mb temperatures dipping a bit below 0C as 500mb temperatures fall to around -20C. Most of the area will dry out late this evening into the overnight as the cold front exits, though as cooler west- northwest flow aligns over the ~25C lake waters some lake- enhanced showers will begin developing and moving into Northeast OH/Northwest PA. A vort max and low-level trough axis will cross the region very late tonight into early Sunday, likely causing activity to peak in organization. While some lake effect showers will continue on Sunday across Northeast OH/Northwest PA, the activity will likely lose organization and intensity for several hours after the morning trough passage. Another potent vort max and low-level trough axis will drop in from the northwest late Sunday afternoon and evening, bringing another uptick in lake-enhanced shower activity over and east-southeast of Lake Erie from as far west as the Islands and Sandusky points east. There will also be an uptick in showers across the rest of the area with the trough passage late Sunday afternoon and evening. Chilly, cyclonic west-northwest flow continues through at least Monday night or early Tuesday and some lake effect/ enhanced shower activity remains likely. However, there will likely be a trend for activity to become less intense/organized later Sunday night and beyond as high pressure builds in. A possible exception is Monday night when another vort max and trough passage is hinted at. That could cause one last uptick in the lake-driven showers, especially farther east. In terms of any hazards, instability will be deep enough over the lake for some thunder/lightning potential with the lake- enhanced activity...especially through the first half of Sunday night. The overall set-up with a somewhat shorter west-northwest fetch and some wind shifts through the event isn't overly favorable for intense, banded rainfall with a flash flood risk across the snowbelt. However, rain amounts will gradually add up (especially through Sunday evening) where lake-enhanced showers are most frequent and the potential for localized flooding will need to be kept in mind, especially if parts of Northeast OH or Northwest PA see locally heavy rain today. The heaviest rain amounts will likely occur slightly inland from the lakeshore form the Cleveland area points east-northeast. Otherwise, with cold air aloft and stronger winds towards and above 500mb, any thunderstorms with the trough passage late Sunday afternoon/ evening may produce gusty winds and/or small hail...especially over and downwind of Lake Erie. KEY MESSAGE 2.. Locations outside of any lake enhanced rain showers are expected to dry out Sunday night and remain dry into the first half of the week. Lake enhanced rain will gradually dwindle starting late Sunday night and eventually end by Tuesday as discussed above. Overall, this will lend to a tranquil first half of the week across much of the area. Temperatures will slowly rebound towards normal starting on Tuesday. Another trough is expected to dig into the Great Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday. This will likely be accompanied by another surface low and its associated fronts. Chances for showers and some storms may arrive as early as Wednesday afternoon/evening, but are most favored on Thursday with this system. && .AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... Showers and thunderstorms continue to move through Eastern Ohio and into Pennsylvania late this evening. KYNG and KERI may see impacts over the next couple of hours until it pushes further off east. Non- VFR ceilings and visibility are possible in thunderstorms with gusty winds. MVFR ceilings may linger across Northeastern Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania through tonight as well. The cold front continues to move through Northern Ohio and winds will shift to be west to northwesterly at around 10 knots. Winds will be gusty tomorrow out of the west to northwest up to 20 knots starting around 14-15Z and persist through much of the day. Lake effect showers and periodic thunderstorms are possible late in the TAF period for KCLE and terminals to the east. Non-VFR visibility is possible in any showers/thunderstorms that occur with this. Outlook...Non-VFR conditions will be likely Sunday through Monday morning with lake enhanced rain showers and isolated thunder possible for areas downwind of Lake Erie in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. && .MARINE... A cold front will move across the lake through this evening bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be strong to severe with isolated wind gusts as high as 40-50 knots. Winds will shift around from the west to northwest tonight 15 to 20 knots and continue Sunday through Monday. Waves will increase 3 to 7 feet later tonight and those rough conditions will likely continue Sunday through Monday. Waterspouts will be very possible on Lake Erie starting tonight and lingering through Monday. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazard Statements for rip currents have been issued late tonight through Monday afternoon and evening. High pressure will slowly build in Monday into Tuesday with conditions on Lake Erie improving. By Tuesday, winds will be westerly to southwesterly 5 to 15 knots and waves decreasing to 1 to 2 feet. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement from midnight EDT tonight through Monday afternoon for OHZ009-010. Beach Hazards Statement from midnight EDT tonight through Monday evening for OHZ011-012-089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement from midnight EDT tonight through Monday evening for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 5 PM EDT Monday for LEZ144-145. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Monday night for LEZ146>149. && $$ DISCUSSION...Saunders/Sullivan AVIATION...23 MARINE...Saunders  540 FXUS62 KJAX 222355 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 755 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Isolated Strong Thunderstorms Today. Hazards: Gusty Winds (40-60 mph), localized flooding & frequent lightning. Main Concern Areas: I-95 corridor and areas north of I-10. Stronger Storm Timing: 3 PM 10 PM - SUN-MON: Isolated to Scattered Thunderstorms, mainly NE FL. Increasing thunderstorm coverage Tuesday-Friday - Moderate Afternoon Rip Current Risk Today and Sunday - Low Chance of Central Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Development Late Week && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Highlights through Tonight: - Potential for strong thunderstorms this afternoon and evening Lingering upper shortwaves ahead of the weakening frontal boundary will help trigger showers and isolated storms moving inland from the Gulf. Convection will then spread east-northeastward through the day in the general southwest steering flow. Best chances for storms will be along the sea breeze merger near I-95 and SE GA closer to the weakening frontal boundary. A few strong storms may be possible along boundary mergers producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Convection will shift off the Atlantic coast later this evening. Temps still expected to reach the lower/middle 90s ahead of convection with peak heat indices around 105F, but still below Heat Advisory criteria. Low temps near normal in the lower to middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the Atlantic Coast. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period (Sunday and Monday): - Lower Thunderstorm Chances Sunday, Isolated Strong Storms Possible - Hotter with Daily Peak Heat Index near 105 Drier air begins to infiltrate across the area from the northwest Sunday as the mid level trough axis across the eastern seaboard weakens and nudges farther to the east. This pattern shift will bring much lower rain chances across southeast GA Sunday (rain chances < 15%) as precipitable water content falls below 1.5 inches, which is below the 25th percentile for this time of year. Higher precipitable water content near 2 inches will focus across northeast Florida Sunday afternoon, mainly south of the Interstate 10 corridor, with morning showers and isolated storms edging inland from the Gulf Coast region under southwest winds, then convective coverage expands eastward into the afternoon toward the Atlantic coast. A few stronger storms will be possible across the St. Johns River basin and toward the Atlantic coast in the afternoon where low level boundaries merge under seasonably cool 500 mb temps of -6.5 to - 7 deg, near the median values for the date. Monday, models trending a little wetter with the development of another deeper eastern seaboard mid level trough axis, with a return of PWATs back above 2 inches for much of the area under light west- southwest steering flow as a surface front slides southward into central GA. Rain chances nudge up into the 20-40% chance range with a prevailing west coast sea breeze regime and possibly convection ongoing into Monday night across southeast GA with the approach of the surface front and a passing mid level short wave trough. A few strong to isolated severe storms possible as mid level temperatures cool across southeast GA into the -7 to -8 degC range at 500 mb. High temperatures warm back to above climo values in the mid to upper 90s with heat index values generally topping out near 105 Sunday to 105-109 degF Monday across northeast FL. Near to just slightly at Heat Advisory criteria Monday for northeast FL. Overnight lows will trends in the low/mid70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Main Highlights This Period (Tuesday through Saturday): - More Active Weather Pattern Returns Tuesday Deeper moisture returns and lingers Tuesday onward as as broad upper troughing establishes across the eastern seaboard with prevailing WSW steering flow across the region and several mid level shortwaves progged to enhance daily thunderstorm activity. This pattern favors a dominant west coast sea breeze regime across FL, sea breeze and outflow mergers toward the late afternoon and evening storms favoring near the I-95, and then late afternoon and early evening storms across southeast GA near meandering surface front. Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the week with highs generally in the low 90s Tuesday onward with heat index values generally below local heat advisory criteria at this time. Tropics Outlook: NHC has a 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation mid to late week across the central Atlantic. Locally, rip current activity could become more enhanced late week depending on the evolution of this system. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... A few showers will linger near the TAF sites over the next couple of hours before fading. Patchy fog could develop at VQQ in the pre-dawn hours potentially lowering conditions to MVFR or lower. SSW winds this evening become light overnight. SSW winds increase to 5-10 kts after 15Z. Winds shift to southerly as the Atlantic sea breeze shifts inland this afternoon at the coastal TAF sites. Another potential early start to convection for GNV as showers/storms move inland from the NE Gulf beginning around 15Z. && .MARINE... Another cold front shifts southward into the southeastern U.S. tonight into Sunday night. The front will stall just north of the local waters Monday and then lift back northward as a warm front through mid-week. Rounds of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms can be expected each day. Brief southerly wind surges are expected during the late afternoon and evening hours, but winds are expected to remain below Small Craft Exercise Caution levels. Rip Currents: Surf/breakers will remain 1 to 2 feet through early next week in the mainly offshore flow with overall low rip current risk, but brief periods of moderate risk will exist during the afternoon hours as local onshore sea breeze develops each day. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Locally High Dispersion Sunday And Monday For Se Ga Unsettled weather continues today with showers and storms possible along a stalling front and the sea breezes this afternoon. A few storms will be capable of strong wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. West to southwesterly breezes continue today and for the next several days with the exception of the coastal areas where the afternoon Atlantic sea breeze will shift winds east to east- southeast. A dry northwest flow will bring lower humidity and mostly dry weather to southeast Georgia Sunday with minimum humidity between 30- 40% while scattered to isolated afternoon showers and storms will continue across northeast FL. Monday, continued hot with drier air limiting rain chances further with isolated afternoon limiting and evening showers and storms. Hotter temperatures on Sunday and Monday will increase mixing heights across southeast GA, leading to locally high dispersion each afternoon. Fog Potential: Significant fog is unlikely, and any strong wind will be associated with nearby thunderstorm activity. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 71 97 72 96 / 30 10 20 20 SSI 75 94 76 95 / 30 20 10 20 JAX 74 94 74 96 / 20 30 10 30 SGJ 75 93 75 95 / 10 30 10 10 GNV 73 93 73 95 / 20 30 10 20 OCF 73 9273 95 / 20 40 10 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$  464 FXUS63 KDTX 222354 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 754 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with low probability for an isolated strong to severe storm. - Breezy and cooler conditions arrive Sunday with scattered showers through Sunday night. - Mainly dry weather Monday into Tuesday with a warming trend. The next chance of showers and storms is possible late in the day Wednesday. && .AVIATION... Passage of the low pressure system and frontal boundary earlier leaves a northwesterly wind with associated scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms spilling into southeast Michigan within the arriving colder airmass. Predominately VFR conditions exists within this environment, but a brief dip to MVFR ceilings will be possible under any heavier shower. This remains a low probability. Mostly VFR ceilings will carry the tonight period with some isolated MVFR developing across PTK to MBS. Northwesterly winds will be increasing tomorrow morning with gusts up to 20 knots starting around 14Z and lasting through much of the afternoon. Ceilings should remain low VFR for tomorrow with a low probability for scattered showers during the afternoon. D21/DTW Convection...Scattered showers will have potential to affect DTW through 02Z with a low potential for an isolated thunderstorm around the DTW airspace. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low in thunderstorms this evening. * Moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet Sunday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 DISCUSSION... A cold front passing across the area remains the focus for numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. This is tied to an amplifying upper trough inducing divergence aloft and deep forcing along the frontal zone. This is enough forced ascent to produce high coverage of convection, but instability remains a limiting factor to the severe threat due to relatively cool surface temperatures and slow diurnal recovery in the wake of morning convection and persistent cloud cover. Radar trends over the past hour suggest the forcing is likely outpacing the recovery of instability, indicating a shrinking window for stronger to severe storms. Bulk wind shear of 30 kt remains the favorable parameter for some organized updrafts, and will continue to monitor storm trends as the front works through over the next couple hours. The main threat in any stronger convection remains wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph. Portions of Shiawassee, Livingston, and Washtenaw Counties received 2 to 3 inches of rain this morning, so these areas may also be susceptible to localized ponding/flooding as the line of showers works through. The surface front clears the area by around 6pm with weak instability lagging behind to keep a spottier coverage of showers and possibly a thunderstorm through this evening before forcing clears out. The trough driving the cold front will continue to amplify tonight into Sunday with an anomalously deep closed low developing all the way up to 300mb. Forecast ensemble mean 500mb heights sit about 2 standard deviations below climatology for this system, which stalls just northeast of Georgian Bay into early next week. Its downstream placement will direct a steady feed of drier, cool air into the Great Lakes during this period, sending temperatures well below normal. Highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s will be likely Sunday and Monday. Northwest wind will be breezy to around 25 to 30 mph each day. A strong vort max will dive southward directly across the area Sunday afternoon and evening, inducing higher lapse rates and a diurnal flare-up of shower activity. Soundings show respectable depth to narrow CAPE to allow for a chance of thunderstorms, but severe weather is not expected. Highest coverage of showers is favored target the Thumb where early season lake effect processes begin to come into play. By Monday, precipitation chances drop off and more sun is in store as gradual upper height rises commence. Thicknesses rebound as well, allowing a slight uptick in high temps. A shortwave ridge passes over the region Tuesday into early Wednesday as the upper low slowly exits east and another shortwave trough works across central Canada. The resultant high pressure brings another dry day with a step up in high temps to around 80 degrees. Flow organizes out of the southwest on Wednesday as the upstream wave works into the western Great Lakes. This advects in higher moisture and a chance of showers and storms late in the day. The associated cold front is slated to track through by Thursday morning but additional showers will be possible through the rest of the day as the trough stalls in the vicinity. MARINE... Ongoing passage of a cold front will continue to support a line of showers and thunderstorms that will progress across the Great Lakes for the remainder of the evening hours. Any stronger thunderstorms will be capable of producing localized wind gusts aoa 34 knots. Wind direction will quickly veer from south-southeast to northwest in the wake of the front with cooler air supporting breezy conditions. A prolonged window for these breezy conditions are expected through tomorrow and a greater portion of the day on Monday, with gusts on the order of 20 to 30 knots. A longer fused Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for both wind gust concerns and for building wave heights in and around the Thumb given the sustained northwest flow. Otherwise, there will be a low chance for rain showers across Lake Huron tomorrow afternoon and evening with a very low chance for waterspout development. High pressure then builds in late Monday and settles in on Tuesday, bringing lighter winds to the area. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for LHZ421-441. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for LHZ422. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Monday for LHZ442-443. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....AA DISCUSSION...TF MARINE.......AM You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  647 FXUS62 KMLB 222357 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 757 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Daily afternoon shower and storm development is forecast across east central Florida through this weekend and into next week. - Storm hazards today will include frequent to excessive lightning, strong to marginally severe wind gusts, small hail, and heavy downpours leading to rainfall accumulations of 1-3". - Heat remains a concern across east central Florida, though peak heat indices are anticipated to stay below advisory criteria. Regardless, residents and visitors to the area are encouraged to practice heat safety! && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Current-Tonight... Isolated to scattered convection has been able to overcome dry air across west central Florida late this morning and through early this afternoon with some activity already moving into interior portions of east central Florida. Based on these trends, healthy development of scattered cu, and more recent aggressive runs of the high-res guidance, have nudged up rain chances across the local area through this evening (~40-50%). The highest coverage is generally forecast along collisions with the east coast sea breeze across portions of Okeechobee, Osceola, eastern Orange, Brevard, and eastern Volusia. Up to this point, drier air seems to have suppressed updraft height and intensity. However, continued surface heating and future boundary collisions may allow a few updrafts to punch further through the dry layer, and stronger storms that can develop will be capable of frequent to excessive lightning, wind gusts of 40-55 mph, small hail, and heavy downpours. Expect coverage to diminish from west to east through late afternoon and into the evening with dry conditions forecast overnight. Low temperatures mostly fall into the mid 70s. Sunday-Monday... A mid to upper level trough persists over the eastern U.S. on Sunday before gradually lifting northeastward on Monday. Light offshore flow continues through late this weekend, turning out of the south on Monday as the western Atlantic high transitions northward and settles over the central Florida peninsula. Some uncertainty still exists in rain chances on Sunday as drier air is modeled within the layer from 850-500mb. However, a passing shortwave aloft looks to provide enough localized moisture and energy to support a mention of isolated to scattered rain chances (20-40%) across portions of east central Florida Sunday afternoon and evening. Shortwave energy broadens and mostly dissipates by Monday with the drier air then limiting rain chances mostly below 20-30% for much of the area. Cold temperatures aloft (~ -7C @ 500mb), high DCAPE (900+ J/kg), and efficient surface heating will continue support for a few strong storms, particularly on Sunday. Strong storms which develop will be capable of frequent to excessive lightning, wind gusts 40-55mph, heavy downpours, and small hail. Outside of showers and storms, hot temperatures persist in the low to mid 90s with peak heat index values ranging 102-107F. Tuesday-Friday... A broadening trough pattern will support a series of mid-level shortwaves over the eastern U.S. next week. High pressure will persist at the surface with a ridge axis draped over central Florida. Light southerly flow may often become variable early each day before the sea breeze shifts winds onshore each afternoon. Drier air persists on Tuesday, with PWATs increasing closer to seasonal values mid to late week. This should result in slightly below normal rain chances (20-40%) Tuesday, shifting closer to normal (40-60%) from Wednesday onward. Coverage should follow diurnal trends initiated by surface heating and boundary collisions. Temperatures are forecast to hold near to slightly above normal reaching the low to mid 90s each day, and humidity will allow peak heat index values to exceed 100F through the extended forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Favorable boating conditions continue outside of storms. High pressure across the south Florida waters through late this weekend lifts northward and settles across the central Florida waters on Monday. Prevailing light offshore flow (southwest) continues through Sunday, turning south to southeast as the sea breeze develops. Prevailing flow then shifts out of the south Monday and through much of the upcoming week, still turning onshore with the sea breeze each afternoon. Seas hold mostly 1-2 ft, briefly increasing to 3 ft offshore early Sunday. Isolated to scattered offshore moving storms in the afternoon and evenings will be capable of frequent to excessive lighting, wind gusts to 34 kts or greater, and locally higher seas. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 742 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Carrying VCSH/VCTS at most ECFL terminals through 01Z-02Z as lingering boundaries continue to produce ISO TS/SH, and keeping a TEMPOs for wind gusts at a few. Mostly quiet VFR overnight after convection clears, but ISO TS or even TS can't be ruled out. Winds will be VRB at times late this evening, becoming light southerly overnight, then shifting WSW-SW 5-10 kts late Sunday morning. The ECSB will again be slowed/pinned by the offshore flow, developing and moving inland after 18Z. Some uncertainty in convective evolution. ISO-SCT SH could develop as early as 17Z in the offshore flow, becoming SCT to possibly NUM along the sea breeze collision over the eastern side of the peninsula. +TSRA possible again. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 93 75 93 / 40 40 10 20 MCO 76 95 76 96 / 30 30 20 20 MLB 77 94 77 93 / 40 20 20 20 VRB 75 93 75 92 / 30 20 10 20 LEE 75 92 75 94 / 10 30 10 20 SFB 76 94 75 95 / 40 40 20 30 ORL 77 94 76 95 / 30 30 20 30 FPR 76 93 75 92 / 30 20 10 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Law AVIATION...Haley  685 FXUS61 KBGM 222357 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 757 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... PoPs and QPF were increased for the Monday night into Tuesday timeframe for areas along and north of the NY Thruway Corridor due to lake effect rain showers that are expected to develop. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A broad upper level low moving southeastward into the area tonight into Sunday is expected to lead to unsettled weather into early next week. 2) High pressure builds in for a brief lull in wet weather Wednesday, then additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to return Thursday into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A broad upper trough will be setting up across the eastern U.S. this weekend with an upper low dropping southeastward out of Canada and becoming a closed low over the Great Lakes on Sunday. A surface low is expected to develop over the eastern Great Lakes region as well tonight into Sunday. These features are expected to be the main drivers of our weather into early next week. Conditions have remained relatively stable this afternoon. This, combined with the lack of a forcing mechanism has allowed for the area to remain rain-free for now. Can't rule out an isolated shower later this afternoon, but otherwise most of the rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will hold off until tonight. The surface low over the eastern Great Lakes is expected to lift north-northeast, passing just north and west of the area Sunday. As it shifts north toward the Ontario/Quebec border, it will drag a surface cold front across the region Sunday. Latest trends have this cold front moving through in the morning, which keeps the greatest chance of showers and thunderstorms during that timeframe. As the winds shift to more westerly following the passage of the front, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop Sunday afternoon (greatest chance in Central NY), but coverage of these should be rather limited. By Monday, the 500mb closed low moves overhead. This combined with with cooler air aloft moving over the Great Lakes with 850mb temps falling to +6C to +10C and a west to northwest flow in place, additional lake effect/lake enhanced rain showers are expected to develop. As the upper low lifts NE Tuesday, there could be a few lingering lake effect rain showers downwind of Lake Ontario near and north of the NYS Thruway before drier conditions return. Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected this weekend before turning noticeably cooler Monday with the upper low overhead with highs in the 60s and lower 70s. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure briefly builds in Tuesday night into Wednesday with dry conditions. Then Thursday into Friday, a similar pattern to this weekend will likely set back up with a potential low moving up from the south and another upper trough pushing in from the west that would bring the chance for additional showers and thunderstorms. As of now these features appear to be more progressive and look to move out of the region by next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The thunderstorms in western NY and PA will slowly weaken as day time heating is lost. These thunderstorms will likely transition to just a cluster of rain showers that move through between 5Z and 10Z from west to east. Cigs were a little uncertain as upstream observations did not show clouds as low as modeled so went with IFR tempos rather than predominant at most terminals. ELM has a chance at some fog development behind the departing rain as there does look to be some breaks in the clouds. Tomorrow, with cool air moving in over the Great Lakes, there could be some lake effect cigs so decided to keep some MVFR into the late morning for SYR and ELM, then kept MVFR cigs longer at elevated terminals like ITH and BGM. Outlook... Monday...Scattered showers at the Central NY terminals with associated restrictions possible. Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJG/DK AVIATION...AJG/KL