945 FXUS64 KHGX 230503 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1203 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory remains in effect. Hot conditions will persist through at least mid-week. - Cannot rule out a rouge shower or thunderstorm at times into midweek, but chances will be quite low. - Temperatures VERY slightly ease late in the week along with the potential for some isolated rain chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The oppressive heat wave continues across the region as strong mid to upper level ridge over the Southern Rockies/West Texas stays in place through at least Wednesday. Subsidence aloft, along with warm and humid south to southwest surface winds will keep conditions hot and sticky. Forecast models remain consistent in placing 850 mb temperatures in the 22-26 degC range today through midweek, which translates to surface highs reaching the upper 90s to lo 100s. Expect highs mostly in the triple digits inland and in the mid 90s along the coast through Wednesday/Thursday. A Heat Advisory remains in effect today and is now in effect through Monday evening. Given the persistent warmth and humidity, the Advisory will likely need to be extended through at least Wednesday. In terms of PoPs, the overall trend remains predominantly dry due to strong subsidence remaining in place. However, don't be entirely surprised if isolated showers or storms manage to develop during the afternoon hours as weak, subtle shortwaves ride along the southeastern fringe of the ridge. If any rain/storms do develop, they should dissipate around or shortly after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. For those looking for relief from the heat, options remain limited. :( BUT temperatures should drop by a few degrees toward the end of the week. As the ridge aloft gradually shifts westward Thursday into the upcoming weekend, highs will ease slightly into the mid to upper 90s. Additionally, slightly weaker heights and an approaching backdoor front will bring at least a slight rain/storm chances late in the week. JM && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions prevail, across all TAF sites, with light and variable winds. Winds settle in the WSW tomorrow morning, then increase to about 7-10 kts and swing to the SSE by tomorrow afternoon. This evening, winds decrease and once again turn back to the WSW. Another round of intermittent MVFR/IFR CIGS are possible tonight, though are expected to be "FEW" and "SCT" in nature. MVFR VIS is possible, especially at KLBX where cooling overnight temps, increased moisture from onshore flow, and nearly calm winds are expected from about 10Z to 14Z. Tomorrow afternoon and evening, there is a low chance for some stray showers/thunderstorms, though confidence in location is too low to include in the TAFs. MLG && .MARINE... Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Surface high pressure centered over the western Gulf will continue to result in light to moderate south to southwest winds and seas around 1 to 3 ft. Expect winds shifting to the southwest and west late at night and in the mornings, transitioning generally to the south in the afternoon and evening with the seabreeze. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 79 104 78 103 / 10 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 81 103 80 102 / 0 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 83 92 83 92 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...47 AVIATION...MLG MARINE...47  887 FXUS64 KLIX 230502 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1202 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1006 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Dangerous heat continues with afternoon heat indices in the 105-113 well into the new week. Warm overnight temperatures will offer limited relief. Those with outdoor plans should take precautions to avoid heat-related illness. Stay hydrated, wear light-weight and loose fitting clothes, and take breaks in the shade or air conditioning. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast during the mid to late afternoon hours today and Monday. A few storms could become strong to severe, producing gusty winds, frequent lightning and brief periods of heavy rain. When thunder roars, go indoors. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 1006 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The next several days will depend on subtle shifts in the large scale synoptic players on the NAC(North American Continental) stage. These are very simplistic and are made up of the large upper level stacked high over the west and the large upper level trough over the east. Any flexing of one or both of these systems will have impacts here since we are so close to where these two systems interface. Looking at the H3 level, one can see a saddle moving through the area this morning. This is being caused by the high to the west splitting air away from the low(trough) to the east. The saddle is not what gives us any real issues, instead it more or less stagnates things which is the reason we went to much lower precip chances within a day. But the flow to the north of this saddle is strongly divergent and is the area that moves over us later today and remains Monday. This divergent flow shifts to the east by Tue and Wed. One would think that 25-30kt winds at H3 is not very strong, but on the contrary, these speeds are actually moderate to strong for this time of year at this latitude. The split(divergent) flow aloft is a major key to the added weakness over the area later today and Monday. When split flows occur at the sfc, it causes stability as air sinks to take its place and in doing so warms and becomes more stable. It is exactly the opposite when it occurs in the upper levels. When this occurs, the split flow is responsible for layer lifting below and destabilization. Eventhough weak instability will occur, that is all that is needed to help convective currents break through inversions via buoyant forcing once the hottest temps of the day are achieved. As this area shifts east Tue and Wed, it simply means the ridge to our west takes more control of the area causing stronger stability, making it harder to break through the inversion levels with just buoyancy forcing alone. This makes it easier to see how subtle the flexing of these systems can change impacts to the area quite a bit. SPC has set a marginal risk for severe, and these levels are appropriate for this scenario as we should see isolated severe today and tomorrow, but with a few more of these type of storms Mon. Since these system shifts are so minor and subtle, it does not take much to be off on a fcast even in the short time scale. Either way, the heat will continue and it almost seems that the only thing that will break it is the fall season. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 1006 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 During the latter part of the work week, a persistent upper level low located over eastern Canada will finally start to lift northeastward as another low dives toward the Great Lakes region. This will cause the sharp eastern CONUS trough to flatten somewhat and will also shunt the stubborn upper high that has been sittingover Texas a bit farther west. The breakdown of the ridging aloft locally should mark a return (at least temporarily) to a more normal afternoon shower and thunderstorm pattern across the local area. Assuming it holds, the upward trend in rain chances will be beneficial in multiple ways. First, it will contribute to hopefully improving the abnormally dry (D0) to moderate drought (D1) conditions across much of the area. And second, with increased cloud cover and outflow boundaries abound from the showers and storms, afternoon temperatures will come down from their recent stay in the mid to upper 90s. Expect to see afternoon temperatures return to near or just slightly above normal, topping out in the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows will likely remain at least a couple degrees warmer than normal despite a slight cooling trend into the low to mid 70s by the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1006 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Most of this cycle will be VFR at all terminals, but there will be more TSRA developing during the afternoon/evening hours bringing another round of wind and lower flight restriction levels for those sites impacted. All activity will decay after sunset bringing VFR to all sites for the remainder of this package. && .MARINE... Issued at 1006 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Surface high pressure centered over the central Gulf will maintain a generally weak pressure gradient through much of the period. Weak and variable winds around 5 to 10 knots will become W then SW to start the week. A predominantly light southerly flow will set up by mid week and remain through the end of the week. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible with winds and waves higher in and near this activity. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....DS AVIATION...TE MARINE...TE  970 FXUS63 KILX 230504 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1204 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Relatively benign weather is on tap for the upcoming week, with the primary chance for any rain around mid week. - Temperatures will not be out of the ordinary for this time of year, with high temperatures near 80 degrees Sunday and Monday creeping upward a bit through the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 838 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Spotty showers associated with an outflow boundary have all but come to an end as they reached along and south of I-70. The rest of the night will feature benign conditions as light northerly breezes continue. Cloud cover will be minimal as lows dip into the upper 50s to lower 60s. An unusually comfortable August night is in store. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Diurnal cumulus development has been increasing across the northern CWA early this afternoon. While surface CAPE's in that area are around 2000 J/kg, mid level lapse rates are fairly low. Between that and dew points only in the low-mid 60s, any precipitation this afternoon should mainly be in the form of sprinkles. The dry air will result in a couple of pleasant nights, with lows around 60 tonight and mid-upper 50s Sunday night. The overall upper pattern over the next several days will favor a northwest flow into the Midwest, which will keep any significant heat or moisture surges at bay. The most interesting feature of note will be a shortwave diving southeast around mid week. With most of the available moisture near the Great Lakes, rain chances this far south will be more questionable, with 20-30% chances mainly centered on Wednesday night. Temperatures creep upward and are expected to reach the mid 80s by mid week, with enough moisture in place to get the heat index to around 90 in a few places. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 High pressure over the Upper Midwest tonight will slowly spread to central Illinois by Sunday evening. A light northwest wind under 10 kt will prevail across central Illinois through the day Sunday, then will give way to light and variable winds under the ridge axis Sunday night. Outside of an off chance for some patchy fog that reduces visibility early Sunday morning, VFR conditions are expected to prevail across central Illinois through the period. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Geelhart UPDATE...Shimon DISCUSSION...Geelhart AVIATION...Deubelbeiss  092 FXUS63 KGLD 230506 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1106 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms forecast to develop along the CO Front Range late this afternoon will track east toward the KS border this evening. A few storms capable of producing small hail and localized wind gusts up to 65 mph are possible, mainly in eastern CO between 7-11 PM MDT. - Another chance for storms Sunday night with a low risk for damaging winds. - Severe chances likely return for early next week under northwest flow. - Above normal temperatures through at least mid week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Upper ridge over the Texas Panhandle today will gradually migrate westward to the Four Corners by Tuesday night. This position will keep the Central Plains under zonal to northwesterly flow through the period with chances for showers and thunderstorms. Today and Sunday, with the ridge to the south and a zonal flow coming out of Colorado, convection originating over the mountains and Front Range will move east and reach the area during the evening hours. Storms will likely be weakening as they do so with the rapid decrease in instability near sunset. Nonetheless, they may still pose a marginal severe wind risk even in the decaying stages. Rainfall amounts look to be light, less than a quarter of an inch both nights. Monday and Tuesday, will be transitioning back to northwest flow with a corresponding increase in deep layer shear. This will result in better organized updrafts and a severe risk both days for wind and hail. On Monday the primary storm initiation area will be southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. The mean flow around the ridge will take them east then southeast with time, which will place areas generally north of Interstate 70 in the most favorable region for severe storms. On Tuesday, storms will be initiating further south in northeast Colorado in the afternoon, then moving east to southeast through the evening. The severe risk will extend into most if not all of the area. Temperature trends for the period will be above normal all days with highs well into the 90s. Normal highs for this time of year are in the upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 251 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Synoptically, the ridge to the west is forecast to mainly remain stationary over the Four Corners region, keeping us in northwesterly flow throughout the period. Guidance indicates the ridge may begin to amplify on Wednesday, and begin to de-amplify come Friday as a trough moves through the US/Canadian Border. Shortwaves are expected to move through the area during the week and into the weekend, increasing precipitation chances. High temperatures for the period will generally remain in the 90s. Wednesday appears to be the "coolest" day, with highs ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s. Friday is forecast to be the warmest, with highs in the upper 90s and the potential for a few locations to reach the low 100s. If the ridge begins to move eastward, then higher than forecasted temperatures could be seen. Winds are expected to remain calm to breezy throughout the period. Precipitation chances are present throughout the period. Wednesday and Thursday hold the highest potential, with PoPs in the 20-50% range, as shortwaves move through the area during the afternoon and evening hours. While instability and shear parameters appear sufficient for severe storms, model guidance suggests some variability in CAPE and shear values, which could lead to less organized storms and reduced severe chances. Precipitation chance then begins to taper off to 5-15% for Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1102 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions will largely dominate through the period for KGLD and KMCK, but will be broken up by showers and storms moving through the area and some fog and stratus around sunrise. KGLD has a better chance at seeing storms and stratus. Also around sunrise, southeasterly winds gusting in the 20-30 kts range are possible. This may briefly make the fog worse, but will clear us back out to VFR no later than 18Z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...Holdren AVIATION...CA  081 FXUS63 KGRR 230506 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 106 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms this Afternoon - Cooler with Slight Chances (20 percent) for Showers Sunday - Midweek Rain Chances && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms this Afternoon The upper level trough will continue to move through lower Michigan today. The front is currently around a Midland to Battle Creek line and shifting east. Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front before it clears later this afternoon. We'll still be under the upper level trough until tonight with some positive vorticity advection moving through the flow. Moisture is limited, but can't rule out an isolated shower this evening. Northwest winds pick up behind the front with gusts around 20 to 30 mph before the inversion builds in this evening. Warmer lake temperatures with dropping 850mb temperatures may keep the air mass unstable enough along the lakeshore for some spotty showers into early Sunday (20 percent chance). - Cooler with Slight Chances (20 percent) for Showers Sunday The upper level low will remain over the eastern Great Lakes continuing some slight chances (20 percent) in the northwest flow. Another surge of positive vorticity advection is expected to move through the afternoon which could add additional support for shower development along with some diurnal shallow instability. The best chances will be north of I-96 and taper off Sunday evening. Northwest winds will continue to be breezy with gusts to 30 mph during the day. Temperatures will be a little cooler than today with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. - Midweek Rain Chances A shortwave ridge moves in for the beginning of next week but it will be short lived. Heights begin to fall with the approaching trough Wednesday into Thursday. Warm air advection may spark off showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, otherwise the best chances (50 to 70 percent) hold off until Wednesday night when the trough axis is expected to move through. A lull is possible Thursday morning before chances increase (30 to 50 percent) again with the daytime heating Thursday afternoon. Monday will be the coolest day of next week with highs in the 70s. Temperatures then warm into the low 80s for the rest of the week. Low temperatures will largely be in the 50s with some spots dropping into the 40s Monday and Tuesday morning. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 104 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Another breezy day is in store for the terminals with gusts around 25 kts expected after 15z. SCT to BKN cloud bases of around 5k ft are likely, and a widely scattered shower may impact mainly LAN and JXN especially closer to 18z and beyond. PROB30s will properly capture this threat. Not expecting TSRA given decreasing moisture and instability across the region. && .MARINE... Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 High Swim Risk and Small Craft Advisory conditions continue through Sunday. Northwest winds with gusts to 30 knots will cause waves to continue to build into Sunday with wave heights peaking around 5 to 7 feet Sunday afternoon. Waterspouts will also be possible tonight into early Sunday morning with the best chances toward southern Lake Michigan. Winds and waves slowly come down Sunday night into Monday. Another period of Small Craft Advisory and High Swim Risk conditions is possible Wednesday along with our next chance for showers and thunderstorms. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ037-043-050- 056-064-071. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...Hoving MARINE...RAH  067 FXUS64 KMOB 230506 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1206 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1151 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - A Heat Advisory is in effect for southeast Mississippi today for heat indices to around 108 degrees. - Afternoon rain chances increase today and especially into next week, mainly over the southern half of the local area. Storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A northwesterly upper-level flow pattern is in place across the local area as an upper ridge builds over the Rockies and upper troughing digs over the Great Lakes region. This general pattern is expected to continue through the week, allowing for several embedded shortwaves to push into the area from the northwest. The first of these shortwaves is currently passing across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Forcing from this shortwave helped to spark off a complex of storms which moved through north/central MS and AL this past evening. As we go through the rest of the overnight hours, outflow from these storms will push southeastward, likely reaching our coastal counties by the mid to late morning hours. Additionally, as the aforementioned shortwave passes overhead, guidance now suggests that it will help to push deep moisture (PWATs around 1.8-2.1 inches) into the area. It should be noted that this is a rather stark difference to what guidance was showing 24 hours ago. What this means is that we appear to be trending wetter for Sunday afternoon, particularly over the southern half of the local area where the remnant outflow boundary and sea breeze boundary serve as a focus for showers and storms to develop along. PoPs across the southern half of the area now range from 30-50%, with PoPs around 20% further inland. Although shear is weak, the highly unstable environment in place (SBCAPEs exceeding 3000 J/kg and DCAPEs up to around 1000 J/kg) could support a few strong to severe pulse-type storms, capable of producing gusty to damaging winds. A Marginal Risk of Severe Weather is in place for locations south of Highway 84. Activity will diminish by the evening hours. Rain chances increase even further on Monday and throughout the week as several more shortwaves push into the area within the northwesterly flow pattern aloft. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected to develop each afternoon, with the highest coverage expected over coastal counties as storms initially develop along the sea breeze and spread via outflow boundary collisions. Strong daytime heating will also lead to high instability which could support the development of a few strong to severe storms capable of producing gusty downburst winds and small hail, along with frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and very heavy rainfall. Additionally, as we often see whenever we have a northwesterly flow pattern this time of year, we will have to keep a close eye on if upstream storms are able to organize into an MCS and push into our local area. If an MCS is able to develop and impact our area, then we could see an increased risk for damaging winds. We will monitor trends closely over the coming days. Very hot conditions are expected on Sunday, with highs topping out in the mid to upper 90s. A Heat Advisory has been issued for our southeast Mississippi counties for Heat indices of around 108 degrees. The good news, though, is that with the increase in rain chances throughout the week, temperatures will fall back to their seasonal norms, with highs by midweek in the upper 80s to low 90s. Heat indices throughout the rest of the period should generally remain just below Heat Advisory criteria (around 102-107), although a few localized spots of 108-110 degrees cannot be ruled out. Lows will range from the low 70s inland to the upper 70s along the coast. A Low Risk of rip currents remains in place through the week. /96 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected to develop over coastal counties Sunday afternoon. Expect brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. A few stronger storms capable of producing gusty, erratic winds cannot be ruled out. Light and variable winds tonight will become a light northerly to northwesterly wind by the morning hours. Winds along the coast should turn more southerly by the afternoon hours behind the sea breeze. /96 && .MARINE... Issued at 105 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A light to occasionally moderate westerly flow pattern continues through late next week. Winds are expected to follow a pattern that shifts from southwesterly each afternoon to northwesterly late each night. Isolated to potentially scattered showers and storms can be expected each morning next week with locally higher seas and winds near storms. SS/97 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 95 74 97 75 / 10 0 30 10 Pensacola 93 77 96 79 / 10 0 30 10 Destin 90 79 93 80 / 10 0 20 10 Evergreen 97 71 99 72 / 0 0 20 10 Waynesboro 99 73 100 73 / 0 10 10 30 Camden 96 72 97 73 / 0 0 10 20 Crestview 95 72 97 73 / 20 0 30 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079. GM...None. && $$  170 FXUS62 KFFC 230508 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 108 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - A surface boundary will spark additional showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across portions of south-central Georgia. - Drier conditions on Sunday will be followed by a return to low daily rain chances for most from Tuesday onward. - Seasonal, less oppressive heat returns to North Georgia today and areawide by Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 An upper level longwave trough is extending from the central Great Lakes towards the south Georgia coast. As the axis of this trough continues to dig southeastward towards the Atlantic Coast, northwesterly upper flow behind the trough is progressively building over the forecast area. The movement of this trough is also advancing a surface frontal boundary further to the southeast. Dewpoints in areas behind the front are in the low to mid 60s while dewpoints ahead of the front are in the low to mid 70s. With temperatures rising into the low 90s this afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will be possible in east-central Georgia where more moist air remains ahead of the front. This evening, a weak wave will traverse the northwesterly flow aloft, advancing a secondary cold front towards far north Georgia. For the most part, precipitation associated with this front should remain north and west of the forecast area, though isolated showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in the far northern tier from sunset through midnight. Largely benign weather conditions are expected on Sunday. The morning will begin with low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s in north Georgia and low 70s in central Georgia. Patchy fog will be possible in the far northern tier in the early morning, dissipating shortly after sunrise. Aside from highs in the 80s in the far northeastern mountains, highs will be in the low 90s in north Georgia and mid 90s in central Georgia. Drier air will keep Heat Advisory criteria from being reached. A few isolated diurnally driven storms will be possible in the southern portion of our area during the peak heating hours, largely along and south of a line from Columbus to Macon. && .LONG TERM... (Monday morning through next Friday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Generally quiet weather is expected for the first half of the long term with a dry airmass in place. We'll also get a break from thunderstorms during the afternoon as well until Wednesday when winds become more southerly and we start to pull moisture back in from the Gulf. After Wednesday, a trough in the upper level flow will bring back the chances for afternoon thunderstorms. The most potent upper level dynamics will remain north of us, as the center of the low will remain in the Great Lakes region. Given slowly increasing temperatures however, we won't lack instability during the afternoon. This pattern will remain in place through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 107 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Mostly VFR through the period. SCT mid-level clouds 5-7kft remain possible thru the night. SHRA/TSRA in Central AL has dissipated and not expecting any redevelopment at/near any TAF sites. Light winds less than 6kts tonight before picking up to 5-10kts by 14z. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... High confidence on all elements. 07 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 65 91 67 91 / 10 0 0 10 Atlanta 70 91 71 91 / 10 0 10 10 Blairsville 60 84 61 85 / 10 0 0 10 Cartersville 65 90 67 91 / 10 0 0 10 Columbus 72 92 72 93 / 20 20 10 30Gainesville 65 89 67 89 / 10 0 0 0 Macon 70 93 71 92 / 20 20 10 40 Rome 65 90 65 90 / 10 0 0 10 Peachtree City 67 91 68 90 / 10 10 10 10 Vidalia 72 95 73 94 / 20 30 20 60 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...King LONG TERM....Vaughn AVIATION...07  177 FXUS63 KMPX 230508 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1208 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable temperatures expected through the end of the month. - Chance for rain in SW Minnesota Sunday night/Monday morning and a more widespread chance Monday night into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 This Weekend... High pressure overhead today allowed for clear skies this morning into the early afternoon. The heating of atmosphere then allowed for two thing to occur: diurnal fair weather cumulus clouds and mixing. Winds have varied across the broader region due to the winds aloft available to mix down. We have good mixing everywhere, but it is more from central Minnesota to western Wisconsin that has higher winds aloft and therefore higher winds brought down to the surface. As we start to cool this evening along the usual diurnal curve the skies will clear and the winds will become light. With clear skies and light winds we will see ample radiational cooling tonight. This will allow temperatures to fall into the mid 40s to mid 50s. For these cooler areas, east central MN and northwest WI, some fog formation is possible. Sunday during the day will be a similar setup to Saturday with the high pressure system starting to move out, but still present. Another day warming up into the upper 70s, but there are not as high of winds aloft as the upper air pattern shifts and it will therefore not be as gusty outside. This shift in the pattern will have a bigger impact on Sunday night. Temperatures will not cool as much over western Minnesota as clouds move in. This will provide for a wider temperature gap with lows near the SD/MN border near 60 and in western WI temperatures will fall into the 40s. These clouds are tied to a larger system over the High Plains. Some of the rain showers associated with this system could impact parts of the southern Minnesota River Valley Sunday night into Monday morning. Due to the time of day there is little instability, so rain showers are most likely rather than thunderstorms. Next Week... The main driver early in the week on Monday and Tuesday will be a shortwave moving across the Canadian Prairies. The associated surface low and its fronts will be the main source for lift driving the weather. The biggest question for us here continues to be moisture, as many forecast soundings continue to show lots of dry air to overcome. The timing of the frontal passage will limit much of the strong to severe storm chances. However a weak jet streak across North Dakota into northwest Minnesota (better shear) combined with a slightly earlier timing (more instability) could allow for some stronger storms in parts of west central Minnesota. For this reason SPC has a marginal severe risk out for this area. On the larger scale synoptic impacts there are still differences between the timing of the frontal passage and amount of moisture between ensemble members. For this reason any specific 6 hour period is hard to provide much more than a 40 percent chance. When the whole window is taken into account the grand majority of members provide at least some QPF. So bottom line, we will have to get into the higher resolution windows to gain more confidence on details but confidence on seeing rain across these two days has gone up. Past this it looks fairly quiet for the rest of the week with maybe some signal for something at the end of the week, but it is a little early to say much about that. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Mostly clear skies overnight with some diurnal cumulus developing tomorrow morning. Patchy fog & mist is possible along the Minnesota River Valley, but the chances looklow enough to keep out of the TAF for now at RWF & MKT. Calm winds overnight become westerly to northwesterly tomorrow morning. A wind shift to easterly is expected tomorrow evening. KMSP...No additional concerns /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR, chc -SHRA early. Wind SW 10-20 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NDC AVIATION...ETA  210 FXUS64 KBMX 230509 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1209 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1206 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026 - Heat: Minor to moderate heat risk will continue through the upcoming week. Heat indices are forecast to remain below 105 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1206 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026 There are a few lingering showers on the radar from earlier storms albeit decreasing in coverage after an evening of storms and gusty winds across the northwest third of the area ahead of a surface boundary. This boundary is expected to progress southward tonight into early Sunday before stalling across the southern third of Alabama. It is expected to meander in that area through the short term through early Tuesday. In the upper levels, a low is present over Ontario and Quebec and southward into the Great Lakes and much of Eastern Conus. At the same time, there is also a large ridge over New Mexico. This leaves Central Alabama in an at times active northwest flow regime. Look for isolated to scattered waves of convection at times through Monday. On Tuesday, the surface boundary is expected to meander back northward before fizzling out on Wednesday. However, the northwest flow will assist in another front making it into the area in the Thursday/Friday time frame. This will keep unsettled conditions along with scattered slightly higher storm chances in through the latter part of the forecast as moisture increases. Through the 7 day forecast, a few upper lows rotate through the current trough area over Eastern Canada and the Great Lakes with varying degrees of southward progression into Eastern Conus, but overall some degree of troughing remains. Our Southwest US ridge remains as well. The only difference will be a progression of surface boundaries. While the lower dew points have been nice. Look for those to rise through the week. However, overall temperatures should be a tad lower with the increased rain chances and progression of the boundaries and enough to keep chances low for needing a heat advisory over the next week if guidance continues this trend. With that said, it is August in Alabama and still hot, just not as hot as the past couple of weeks. 08 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected outside of any convection. There is currently strong TSRA activity across N MS moving SEWD toward AL ahead of a surface boundary. Not confident enough ATTM of activity holding together to add to NRN TAFs (TCL/BHM/EET) as they should decrease as they approach. Will be monitoring closely for any needed amendments for TS. Otherwise, could see convection across the SRN areas Sunday afternoon with heating as boundary moves SEWD into state, so I have PROB30s for MGM/AUO after 21z. Outside of storms, winds should be light/variable tonight and WNW-NW 4-8kts with mixing on Sunday. Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage, and AMD LTD TO CLD AND WIND for EET due to a visibility sensor outage. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air filtering into the area will result in a decrease in relative humidity (35 to 45%) for most locations on Sunday. However, wind speeds are expected to remain light, which should negate any significant fire weather concerns. Moisture gradually begins to return on Monday and into the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 93 66 90 65 / 20 0 10 10 Anniston 91 66 89 66 / 20 10 20 10 Birmingham 92 70 90 69 / 20 10 20 10 Tuscaloosa 96 72 93 71 / 20 10 20 20 Calera 93 70 90 68 / 20 10 20 10 Auburn 91 71 88 72 / 30 20 30 10 Montgomery 97 73 93 72 / 30 20 4010 Troy 96 71 93 69 / 30 20 40 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...08  452 FXUS61 KILN 230510 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 110 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across parts of the area. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Some weak mid level energy will rotate through the upper level low situated over the Great Lakes through this afternoon. While temperatures will be seasonably cool with afternoon highs in the 70s, some cold air aloft will allow for some weak destabilization through the afternoon. MLCapes in the 1000-1500 J/KG will likely be enough to produce isolated shower and thunderstorm development, with the best coverage expected along and north of the I-70 corridor, closer to the upper low. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Some patchy river valley fog will be possible through daybreak and this may affect KLUK. Otherwise, an upper level disturbance moving through the Great Lakes will lead to isolated shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon, especially along and north of the I-70 corridor. Confidence is low enough and coverage should be limited enough though to leave any mention out of the TAFs at this point. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGL AVIATION...JGL  344 FXUS62 KTAE 230510 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 110 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 108 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Daily chances of showers and storms continue each day. Rain chances are lowest on Sunday, then increase through the workweek. The strongest storms are expected to produce wind gusts of 40-60 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rain. && .UPDATE... Issued at 712 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Convection is lingering a bit later than expected and is developing a bit further north closer to the actual front. Nevertheless, expect it to be winding down over the next 2 to 3 hours. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Scattered thunderstorms will develop through the rest of this afternoon, mainly along and southeast of a line from PAnama City to Tifton. This is where a weak surface trough is located, and this combined with the sea breeze will lead to slightly better coverage of showers and storms to the east. There's plenty of instability for the storms to work with this afternoon, but DCAPE is a mixed bag. It's lower ahead of the trough with a more moist atmosphere, and higher behind the trough where we're expecting lower coverage of storms. But, there is a rather tight gradient, so storms that form closest to the trough could have the better potential for strong wind gusts of 40-60 mph. Storms will wane after sunset. Some patchy fog is possible late tonight into early Sunday morning, mainly north of I-10. Then we await the arrival of a weak cold front sliding into our area on Sunday. Some drier air will make it into our northernmost areas tomorrow afternoon, keeping the better rain chances near the sea breeze or right along the front. There is some discrepancy in the hi- res guidance regarding coverage of storms during the afternoon hours. If storms can get going tomorrow afternoon, there will be good instability and some mid-level dry air to work with for some strong wind gusts in the strongest storms. Otherwise, it will be quite hot with many areas in the mid to upper 90s. But, the slightly lower humidity will keep our heat indices mostly in the 100-107 range, though a few places could peak around 108-110. Coverage of these higher heat indices is not enough to issue a Heat Advisory, however. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Heading into the upcoming workweek, we'll have a large ridge over the southwest US with weak disturbances riding up and around the ridge. That unfortunately places us in the northwest flow regime aloft, which can lead to round of more organized showers and storms in the form of MCSs. Thus, rain chances will increase next week to near or above seasonal normals, but exact timing of these disturbances is hard to pin down. If organized MCSs develop, then chances for strong to potentially severe storms would increase. Summertime heat and humidity will continue to roll along otherwise with highs in the lower half of the 90s and heat index values of 100- 107 each day. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 108 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Some IFR ceilings are possible overnight, but confidence isn't super high to include for now. Amendments are possible through dawn. Isolated showers and storms are in the forecast with PROB30s now in the TAFs at all sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Gentle to occasionally moderate southwesterly flow will continue over the waters for the next several days. Scattered showers and storms are possible each day, mainly in the overnight and morning hours, decreasing in the afternoon. The main exception will be for any clustersof storms that move off the coast next week during the late afternoon or evening hours. Seas will remain around 1 to 2 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Generally light west to southwest transport winds will continue through the next several days. Dispersions will remain good overall each afternoon, though pockets of high dispersions are possible near the I-75 corridor Monday into Tuesday as mixing heights increase. Isolated storms are possible Sunday with increasing coverage of storms again Monday and Tuesday. Gusty, erratic winds and dangerous lightning strikes will be possible. Some drier air moves into the area Sunday before moistening back up again Monday into Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall . If the storms are slow-moving, they could produce several inches of rain in a short period of time. This would lead to some nuisance to isolated flash flood concerns, particularly is low-lying or poor drainage areas. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 75 97 74 94 / 10 60 30 80 Panama City 79 92 78 91 / 20 40 40 60 Dothan 74 95 73 93 / 10 50 20 60 Albany 73 96 73 94 / 10 40 30 60 Valdosta 73 96 73 95 / 10 20 30 70 Cross City 74 95 74 93 / 20 30 10 40 Apalachicola 79 91 78 90 / 0 30 20 60 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today to 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ012>015-027-112-114-115-118-127- 326-426. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Young LONG TERM....Young AVIATION...Reese MARINE...Young FIRE WEATHER...Young HYDROLOGY...Young  555 FXUS63 KIND 230511 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 111 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and less humid weather expected through Tuesday. - The next best chance for rain will be Wednesday Night through Thursday. && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 1002 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Isolated evening convection over northeastern central Indiana has dissipated and moved off to the Richmond/Connersville area. Otherwise lower humidity and a cooler overnight is on tap for the region as Canadian high pressure slowly builds east from the Dakotas into the Midwest. West-northwest flow will slacken to around 5KT/less by pre-dawn hours, allowing radiative cooling under mostly clear skies to bring patchy fog across the realm...and early morning minimums ranging from 57F in Winchester to 62F in Washington. && .DISCUSSION (This evening through Saturday)... Issued at 138 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Surface analysis early this afternoon shows broad low pressure in place over Ontario. A weak trough within this flow has pushed east of Indiana into Ohio, and westerly flow was in place. Some SCT-BKN CU had developed over Central Indiana and was quickly pushing east. Aloft, strong ridging was in place over the Rockies, resulting in lee side subsidence spilling across the northern plains and into the Ohio Valley on NW flow. Dew points across Central Indiana were mainly in the mid 60s and skies were clear over IL and IA, building toward Indiana. Tonight and Sunday... Upper ridging is expected to build east tonight and Sunday toward the upper midwest. This will keep NW flow in place across Indiana and allow subsidence to continue to build across our region. Strong surface high pressure will build across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will result in a mostly clear night and a mostly sunny Sunday. Highs will reach the upper 70s to around 80 on Sunday. Monday... Another pleasant late summer day will be in place on Monday, as ridging aloft continues to be in place over the upper midwest, allowing NW flow to continue to flow across Indiana with subsidence. Models suggest strong surface high pressure in place, stretching from Ontario to the deep south. Forecast soundings remain very dry during this period, thus another mostly sunny/partly cloudy day will be expected with highs in the lower 80s. Tuesday through Saturday... The upper pattern for much of the latter parts of the forecast will remain consistently from the NW. Stronger ridging aloft over the western CONUS looks to continue this ongoing NW flow across the upper midwest and into the Ohio Valley. An exception within this pattern will be on Thursday as an upper trough within the NW flows will push through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, providing some upper support. This feature will push a cold front across Central Indiana on Thursday, resulting in our best chances of the week for some light precipitation. Otherwise, surface high pressure due to the lee side subsidence aloft will continue to be dominate on Tuesday-Wednesday and again on Friday and Saturday. Expect temperatures to remain at or slightly below seasonal normals. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 110 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Impacts: - Low chance for brief fog at outlying terminals after 09Z Discussion: Mainly VFR conditions to continue across central Indiana through Sunday evening as Canadian surface high pressure advances from the Dakotas to the Midwest. Expect light northwest flow through daybreak before increasing to around 07-12 kt during the day. Fog/BR is possible at the outlying sites after 09Z. Mainly FEW/SCT decks expected today amid light to moderate northwest breezes that will gust up to 13-17KT by late afternoon,especially at KLAF/KIND. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...AGM AVIATION...Melo DISCUSSION...Puma  604 FXUS62 KMLB 230513 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 113 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Daily afternoon shower and storm development is forecast across east central Florida through this weekend and into next week. - Storm hazards today will include frequent to excessive lightning, strong to marginally severe wind gusts, small hail, and heavy downpours leading to rainfall accumulations of 1-3". - Heat remains a concern across east central Florida, though peak heat indices are anticipated to stay below advisory criteria. Regardless, residents and visitors to the area are encouraged to practice heat safety! && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Current-Tonight... Isolated to scattered convection has been able to overcome dry air across west central Florida late this morning and through early this afternoon with some activity already moving into interior portions of east central Florida. Based on these trends, healthy development of scattered cu, and more recent aggressive runs of the high-res guidance, have nudged up rain chances across the local area through this evening (~40-50%). The highest coverage is generally forecast along collisions with the east coast sea breeze across portions of Okeechobee, Osceola, eastern Orange, Brevard, and eastern Volusia. Up to this point, drier air seems to have suppressed updraft height and intensity. However, continued surface heating and future boundary collisions may allow a few updrafts to punch further through the dry layer, and stronger storms that can develop will be capable of frequent to excessive lightning, wind gusts of 40-55 mph, small hail, and heavy downpours. Expect coverage to diminish from west to east through late afternoon and into the evening with dry conditions forecast overnight. Low temperatures mostly fall into the mid 70s. Sunday-Monday... A mid to upper level trough persists over the eastern U.S. on Sunday before gradually lifting northeastward on Monday. Light offshore flow continues through late this weekend, turning out of the south on Monday as the western Atlantic high transitions northward and settles over the central Florida peninsula. Some uncertainty still exists in rain chances on Sunday as drier air is modeled within the layer from 850-500mb. However, a passing shortwave aloft looks to provide enough localized moisture and energy to support a mention of isolated to scattered rain chances (20-40%) across portions of east central Florida Sunday afternoon and evening. Shortwave energy broadens and mostly dissipates by Monday with the drier air then limiting rain chances mostly below 20-30% for much of the area. Cold temperatures aloft (~ -7C @ 500mb), high DCAPE (900+ J/kg), and efficient surface heating will continue support for a few strong storms, particularly on Sunday. Strong storms which develop will be capable of frequent to excessive lightning, wind gusts 40-55mph, heavy downpours, and small hail. Outside of showers and storms, hot temperatures persist in the low to mid 90s with peak heat index values ranging 102-107F. Tuesday-Friday... A broadening trough pattern will support a series of mid-level shortwaves over the eastern U.S. next week. High pressure will persist at the surface with a ridge axis draped over central Florida. Light southerly flow may often become variable early each day before the sea breeze shifts winds onshore each afternoon. Drier air persists on Tuesday, with PWATs increasing closer to seasonal values mid to late week. This should result in slightly below normal rain chances (20-40%) Tuesday, shifting closer to normal (40-60%) from Wednesday onward. Coverage should follow diurnal trends initiated by surface heating and boundary collisions. Temperatures are forecast to hold near to slightly above normal reaching the low to mid 90s each day, and humidity will allow peak heat index values to exceed 100F through the extended forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Favorable boating conditions continue outside of storms. High pressure across the south Florida waters through late this weekend lifts northward and settles across the central Florida waters on Monday. Prevailing light offshore flow (southwest) continues through Sunday, turning south to southeast as the sea breeze develops. Prevailing flow then shifts out of the south Monday and through much of the upcoming week, still turning onshore with the sea breeze each afternoon. Seas hold mostly 1-2 ft, briefly increasing to 3 ft offshore early Sunday. Isolated to scattered offshore moving storms in the afternoon and evenings will be capable of frequent to excessive lighting, wind gusts to 34 kts or greater, and locally higher seas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 113 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Light southwesterly flow and ample moisture should combine for scattered to numerous (40-60%) storms today. Focus of highest coverage appears to be for the MCO/Orlando and Daytona terminals, and perhaps TIX/MLB. Timing for storms looks a bit earlier today, with TEMPOs for MCO beginning at 19Z. Some guidance is a bit earlier than this; will monitor trends. Activity lingers latest from MLB to SUA in the early evening before pushing offshore. As with recent days, brief IFR/LIFR and wind gusts exceeding 35 kt will be the primary risks from storms this afternoon and evening. Sea breeze remains pinned at the coast, with terminals from MLB southward briefly turning SE in the afternoon up to 10 kt. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 91 75 92 75 / 60 10 10 10 MCO 93 76 95 76 / 50 20 20 10 MLB 94 76 93 77 / 40 20 20 10 VRB 93 75 92 75 / 30 20 20 10 LEE 90 75 94 75 / 60 10 20 10 SFB 92 75 94 76 / 60 10 20 10 ORL 92 76 94 77 / 50 20 20 10 FPR 94 75 92 75 / 30 20 30 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Law AVIATION...Heil  640 FXUS65 KPSR 230514 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1014 PM MST Sat Aug 22 2026 .UPDATE...Updated 06z Aviation Discussion... && .KEY MESSAGES... - High temperatures reach or exceed 110 degrees nearly every day through the next week and will be near daily records, while morning lows remain unusually warm. - Extreme Heat Warnings are in effect through next Saturday evening with daily Major to Extreme HeatRisk. - Afternoon and evening strong to locally severe thunderstorms will primarily favor higher terrain areas through the start of next week, with drier and less favorable conditions next week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Extreme heat will be the primary weather hazard through the short and long term forecast with very strong high pressure persisting over the region. Latest objective analysis still shows a 599dam anticyclone centered over northern NM, with H5 heights around 595-597dam over the local area. These magnitudes are at or above the 99th percentile of climatology. This will continue leading to well above normal high and low temperatures through this weekend. A drying and warming of the PBL was observed over the last 24 hours, as seen in observed soundings. This should result in high temperatures this afternoon 1-3 degrees warmer than yesterday, with lower deserts topping out around 112-116 degrees. A slight weakening of the subtropical high, and repositioning to eastern NM, Sunday into Monday will support a slight cooling of temperatures through Monday. Potentially more active showers and storms Sunday evening/night in south-central AZ may add a bit to the cooling into Monday. Latest NBM forecast highs for Sunday are around 108-114 degrees and then 106-112 degrees for Monday. Morning low temperatures will remain very warm, up to 5-10 degrees above normal, in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees across the lower deserts. The unusually hot temperatures will lead to widespread Major HeatRisk today and Sunday, with a decrease in coverage of Major HeatRisk for Monday. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through this weekend. Afternoon thunderstorms today should mostly favor the same areas as yesterday, but with the drying of the PBL, surface-based instability will be lower today. Mean mixing ratios are down 8 g/kg or lower and surface dew points at midday were mostly around 50-55 degrees. Lower instability means overall less intense updraft strength. This does not mean storms that develop cannot still become strong to severe. With the high T-Td spreads and high LCLs, DCAPE remains quite high (>1500 J/kg), which will promote strong to locally severe downbursts. Latest hi-res models favor isolated storms developing mostly along the mountains east of Phoenix and over terrain features south of Phoenix, with a focus mostly in central Pima County and portions of southern Maricopa and western Pinal counties. The storms to the south will be capable of sending dusty outflows northward heading into the evening, along with debris clouds and perhaps some weak showers or virga. Just like yesterday, the odds of an outflow popping off storms closer to or in Phoenix are low (5-10%), but it is still not impossible for 1-2 strong to severe storms to pop up with the right amount of forcing. Some ACCAS showers also cannot be ruled out across south-central AZ heading into Sunday morning within some of the debris clouds moving across the area. For Sunday, models continue to support a strong moisture return, albeit brief, in the evening and overnight hours. There are indications that instability will increase again south and southwest of Phoenix with storms again developing in similar locations with similar potential for strong to locally severe wind gusts. Then heading into the evening and overnight hours it looks like there will be a strong gulf surge as well as indications of perhaps a subtle shortwave/vort max moving up out of Sonora. This may increase storm survivability into the Phoenix area. NBM PoPs remain quite low despite this. The 12Z HREF shows a 30% neighborhood probability for dBZ>40 in south-central AZ, including Phoenix, Sunday evening/night. So, PoPs were increased slightly to at least show a slight chance (10-20%) across south-central AZ. Isolated storms are again forecast over higher terrain features for Monday afternoon and evening, but there may be stronger storms and greater coverage over some of the features west of Phoenix, like the Kofas to Harcuvar Mtns and portions of eastern Riverside County following the moisture increase the night before. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/... Ensemble members are in good agreement that by Tuesday drier air will start to filter back into the region as the subtropical high restrengthens and starts to retrograde westward back to over our region. By the middle of the week the center of the high will be straddling the AZ/NM border and by the end of the week the center of the high is forecast to be over AZ. As the high moves overhead, PWATs are shown to drop into a 0.9-1.2" range across our region and with warmer temperatures aloft and subsidence chances for thunderstorms will be poor across the region. The NBM shows that Tuesday and Wednesday there could be enough moisture around to support isolated thunderstorm chances for the higher terrain areas. But by the end of next week thunderstorm chances for our area shut off and will mainly be relegated to the Mogollon Rim. Unusually hot temperatures will be the main story next week. As mentioned above the subtropical high will slowly retrograde back over our region beginning on Tuesday, which will result in a quick warming trend for our area. The high is also expected to strengthen to around 596-598dam during this time. The combination of the center settling over our region and strengthening will result in temperatures heating up to around 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Afternoon highs (morning lows) are forecasted to be in the 112-118 (85-93) degree range across the lower deserts and in the 102-112 (75-85) degree range across the higher terrain areas. There is a good chance daily record highs and warm lows will be tied or broken and temperatures may even near monthly records. The increase in temperatures will also result in an increase in coverage of Major HeatRisk, back to widespread beginning Tuesday and then widespread Extreme HeatRisk by Thursday. Confidence in the heat forecast for next week remains high. So, the Extreme Heat Warning will continue through the workweek and has now been extended through Saturday, in collaboration with the Tucson office. The warning will likely be expanded to our entire CWA by the middle of the week with the development of widespread Extreme HeatRisk. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0510Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: The potential for gusty outflows Sunday evening will once again be the main aviation weather challenge throughout the TAF period. In the meantime, through Sunday afternoon, no weather issues expected with the overall wind pattern exhibiting their typical diurnal tendencies with easterly winds through the early morning hours followed by a westerly shift during the late morning/early afternoon. Outflow boundaries from TS activity over the higher terrain to north and east as well as in southeast AZ are once again expected. At this time, there is the potential for two outflows to affect the terminals, one from the north followed by another one from the south, with the southerly outflow likely to have a better chance of materializing according to the latest hi- res guidance and thus reflected in the TAFs with TEMPO groups. Chances for direct TS impacts Sunday evening remain at less than 20%. FEW-SCT mid/high cloud decks will be common throughout the period. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major weather issues under FEW-SCT mid/high cloud decks can be expected throughout the TAF period. At KIPL, westerly winds will prevail through the overnight period before shifting out of the southeast early Sunday morning. TS activity over the Baja spine may send an southwesterly outflow into KIPL by the late afternoon hours, with a less than 20% chance for direct TS impacts. At KBLH, winds will generally fluctuate out of the south to southwest with a period of light variability during the overnight and early morning hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and seasonally dry conditions are expected nearly every day, through next week. Aside from a brief increase in moisture Sunday- Monday, minimum RH values each afternoon will be around 12-18% (15- 25% Sun-Mon). Temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees above normal through the next week, with lower desert highs eclipsing 110 degrees nearly every afternoon. There will be slight chances for storms each afternoon through Monday, but they will mostly favor the higher terrain areas. Drier conditions, with lower storm chances are expected by the middle of next week. Outside of thunderstorm outflow winds, winds will follow the typical diurnal tendencies with some modest afternoon upslope gustiness. && .CLIMATE... Record highs: Date Phoenix Yuma El Centro ---- ------- ---- --------- Aug 22 113 in 2011 115 in 1969 117 in 1969 Aug 23 114 in 2011 115 in 2011 116 in 1969 Aug 24 115 in 2020 119 in 1985 117 in 1985 Aug 25 113 in 2011 116 in 1962 117 in 1962 Aug 26 117 in 2011 115 in 2020 115 in 1981 Aug 27 114 in 2023 120 in 1981 117 in 1981 Aug 28 117 in 2023 118 in 2023 117 in 2009 && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Saturday for AZZ530>555-559- 560. CA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ562-565>567- 569-570. && $$ SHORT TERM...Benedict LONG TERM...Berislavich/Benedict AVIATION...Lojero FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich/Benedict CLIMATE...18  723 FXUS63 KABR 230516 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1216 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 20-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms during the day Sunday into Sunday evening over central SD, expanding to northeastern SD/west central MN Sunday night while increasing to a 40-60% chance. - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather Sunday evening over much of central to northeastern SD. The main concerns will be golf ball size hail, wind gusts exceeding 60 mph, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall. - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather Monday night. Threat include one inch hail and 60 mph. && .UPDATE... Issued at 846 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Models still show potential for elevated showers/thundershowers across central/south central SD between 06Z and 12Z tonight/early Sunday morning. Therefore, no big changes to the 30-50% chances across the southwest CWA late tonight. Surface high pressure over the eastern CWA this evening will slowly push eastward by 12Z Sunday as southeast winds and return flow set up over central SD overnight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A surface high pressure over the region is producing tranquil weather conditions across the CWA. The high pressure will shift eastward tonight, allowing for warm air advection and increasing LLM to move into the central part of the state. Various CAMS depict weak showers and thunderstorms developing in central-south central SD between 10-15Z. These storms may dissipate or move into northern Nebraska. However, there is a 20-25 percent chance the showers become a weak broken line associated with the WAA over central and north central SD. A good portion of the CWA is under a marginal risk for severe storms, mainly Sunday afternoon and evening. There are some signals among models with convection developing over south central ND around midday, or the juxtaposition of the warm front/cold front location. These storms may grow upscale into a cold pool MCS, tracking southeastward across the CWA. The instability and deep layer shear appears best along and west of the Highway 83, with a decent drop off further east. If an individual storm is able to tap into the instability, the severe threat may be golf ball size hail and wind gusts exceeding 60 mph. The precipitation potential placement reaches near two inches, with is an indication of locally heavy rainfall with some storms. The showers and thunderstorms should exit the CWA around 12Z, with mostly dry conditions and above average temperatures on Monday. A frontal boundary sliding southward Monday night will bring a 20 to 40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Some storms may produce quarter size hail and/or 60 mph winds. After a period of dry conditions midweek, another storm system will produce 30-45 percent chance of pcpn Friday night. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this evening. Thunderstorms may impact KPIR early this morning and KMBG/KPIR this evening. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TMT DISCUSSION...17 AVIATION...20  758 FXUS63 KTOP 230517 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1217 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional chances (20-35%) for showers and storms Sunday morning and again Sunday night into Monday morning. Severe weather is not expected. - Intermittent chances for rain continue through next week. Highest chances (30-60%) come Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. - Slightly cooler Sunday, then temperatures hold near-normal with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s through the remainder of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 149 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The synoptic pattern remains stagnant across the CONUS with the mid- level ridge parked over the Rockies and Southern Plains and northwest flow aloft across the Northern and Central Plains. Morning showers and storms have exited and clearing skies have allowed for good insolation. Temperatures have climbed to around 80 degrees and will top out in the mid to upper 80s. Another wave of energy in the northwest flow will spark convection across the High Plains tonight and this activity will propagate east-southeast, approaching north-central Kansas between 5-7 AM Sunday. Given how today's showers/storms lingered longer than CAMs suggested, have trended PoPs higher to match closer to the HRRR, which had the best handle on today's precipitation. Severe weather is not expected, but storms could produce gusty winds. There is a signal for isolated to scattered showers to continue through the daytime hours Sunday with thicker cloud cover keeping temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Isentropic ascent along with lift from a weak shortwave will increase precipitation chances again Sunday night into Monday, with highest chances across eastern Kansas. This activity is unlikely to be severe and will push east of the forecast area by mid-morning Monday. More abundant sunshine will bump temperatures back into the mid 80s to low 90s Monday afternoon. Very little change to the large-scale pattern is progged through the remainder of next week. Embedded perturbations in the northwest flow will lead to intermittent chances for showers and storms, with the strongest wave moving through Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Temperatures hold near-normal with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 There remains a slight chance for showers Sunday morning and midday. Have continued the PROB30 for KMHK where chances still appear to be a little higher than further east at KTOP/KFOE. If rain approaches, amendments may be needed at all sites once confidence increases on timing. VFR is expected outside of rain and sfc winds should remain light, less than 10 kts. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Flanagan AVIATION...Teefey  783 FXUS61 KCAR 230518 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 118 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Lowered QPF amounts as bulk of showers through Sun are further east and less numerous, and showers Mon stay further north. - 06z TAF UPDATE...See aviation section below. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rounds of showers through Monday. Rain may be heavy at times Sunday, especially across Downeast Maine. 2) Upper level low pressure keeps the chance of showers going into midweek, especially across Northern Maine. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Rounds of showers through Monday. Rain may be heavy at times Sunday, especially across Downeast Maine. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure off of Cape Cod will move northeast this morning, passing just south of the Gulf of Maine. Given the track of the low think the best chance for pops will be north and east of the low center this morning with the bulk of the rain occurring near the New Brunswick border. PW values in far southeastern areas rising to close to 99th percentile with amounts between 1.50-2.00 inches. Any rainfall will be helpful to ongoing drought conditions given that we will be in a cloudy cool pattern for the next couple days. This will allow for rainfall to get into the soils, unlikely to help streamflows which are significantly below normal. Weak low pressure will still be back over the western Gulf of Maine and becoming absorbed by the occlusion over Quebec. Although pwats remain high over the southern and eastern half of the area have reduced pops in the afternoon with parts of the area lacking forcing and the low pressure over the gulf weaker and further to the east. Given the 160- 180% of normal PWATs (95-99th percentile) showers may produce heavy rainfall at times. Showers will be more convective during the day so uncertain where the beneficial rainfall will occur. Then throughout Sunday night, the low becomes stationary over Quebec as it rotates the moisture through the state. By Monday, the low begins to gradually move north which will decrease rain chances throughout the day. However, best chance of showers and thunderstorms will be in the northern 1/2 of the CWA closer to the vertically stacked low in Quebec. QPF totals through Monday afternoon are mainly less than 0.25 inch, with up to 0.75 inch in Washington county. Isolated spots up to 0.5 inch possible in stronger/training showers. KEY MESSAGE 2...Upper level low pressure keeps the chance of showers going into midweek, especially across Northern Maine. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure stalls over Canada, slowly meandering to the east this week. Looking at chances of rain showers in the north, on Tuesday and Wednesday. There is some instability during the afternoons, with some models hinting at 500-1,000 J/kg of CAPE, 7C/km low level lapse rates, and 30-40 kts of effective shear. PWAT values roughly 1.00-1.25", so rain showers expected to be mostly light, with higher totals possible in any convection. That being said, not anticipating severe weather. Temperatures drop Tuesday into the upper-60s to low-70s, and raise back to the 70s on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 12z This Morning... VFR to MVFR cigs at northern terminals (KFVE, KCAR, KPQI, KHUL) lowering to IFR/LIFR in -SHRA and BR. At southern terminals (KBGR, KBHB), LIFR in -DZ and BR, with TEMPO VLIFR in 1/4SM FG and VV002. E to NE winds 5-10 kts. Today...Widespread IFR/LIFR across all terminals in low cigs, -SHRA, and BR. E to SE winds 5-10 kts. Gusts up to 15-20 kts possible at northern terminals, highest at KFVE. Tonight...IFR/LIFR conditions persist at all terminals with low cigs, VCSH, and BR. Conditions dropping to VLIFR at KBHB late with 1/2SM FG. SE winds 5-10 kts, becoming light and variable across most terminals toward 06z. Monday-Wednesday: MVFR or lower likely at northern terminals. MVFR possible at KBGR, with VFR likely at KBHB. S winds Monday, becoming SW Tuesday. LLWS possible Monday night. W-NW winds G15-20KT possible Wednesday. Wednesday night-Thursday: VFR. Light winds overnight, becoming S/SW at 5-10 kts. && .MARINE... Winds below 10kts through Sunday night with seas between 2-4 feet through the period. Rain and patchy fog reduce visibilities at times. Slight chance of winds or seas reaching 25 kts/5 ft Monday-Tuesday. Chance for fog late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Winds from the S on Monday, becoming SW on Tuesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JMM AVIATION...JS  792 FXUS63 KSGF 230519 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1219 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Potential for locally heavy rainfall and flooding Sunday night into early Monday, though uncertainty remains. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Pretty strong northwesterly flow aloft, with an upper high over the Southwest/Southern Rockies and an upper trough over the eastern CONUS. An upper level disturbance continues to slide southeast through the area, which allowed for a cluster of storms to develop over parts of NE/KS earlier this morning. This cluster has since weakened and entered the forecast area, with mainly pesky showers/storms so far this morning/early afternoon. The 12Z sounding showed an impressive amount of MUCAPE (>4500 J/kg), with effective bulk shear >45kts, however many factors have limited storms from tapping into this. An outflow boundary continues to push south, with "cooler" temperatures in the 70s to 80s behind it, and temps in the 90s ahead of it (MO/AR border). Some pockets of clear skies are visible on satellite closer to the MO/AR border, which could lead to these pockets further destabilizing ahead of the showers/storms. If this were to happen, then intensification could occur south of Highway 60 over the next few hours, posing mainly an isolated damaging wind threat, and a secondary isolated hail risk. Latest CAMs however keep this activity weak in our area before intensifying south of the border in Arkansas. This is looking more likely, as cloud cover increases and the outflow boundary quickly advances south, hindering reintensification for our area. The Storm Prediction Center's latest outlook showcases this thinking, with a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk generally along/south of Highway 60, and the better severe risk (Slight risk) south of the forecast area beginning in Arkansas. Shower and storm chances should push out of the area this evening, with overnight lows in the 60s to low 70s tonight. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 On Sunday, the upper level ridge over the west and associated upper high slide slightly eastward, with the aforementioned upper trough continuing to pivot over the eastern CONUS keeping us in northwesterly flow aloft. During the day, conditions look mainly dry, with highs topping out in the 80s to even the low 90s for southeast KS and far southwest MO. Another upper level disturbance looks to slide southeast into the area again Sunday night, leading to additional chances (50-60%) for showers and storms. CAMs show two clusters of showers/storms developing: One pushing southeast from the Dakotas into northern MO, and a second developing over KS/OK pushing east. As these push through the area overnight and into Monday morning, they could pose a localized flooding threat, as some guidance suggests PWATS over 2.0". As the previous discussion mentioned, this would be 150-175% above normal. Current HREF 24-hr LPMMs show localized pockets of 1.5-2.5" of rainfall, with the majority of the area expected to remain below an inch. There's still much uncertainty regarding this activity, with several key mesoscale factors that need to come together to form any hydro concerns. With the area remaining in northwesterly flow throughout the week, we'll see periodic low-end chances (15-30%) for showers/storms. Daily highs should generally remain in the upper 80s to low 90s (northeast CWA) to the mid/upper 90s (southwest CWA). && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 For the most part, expect VFR conditions with light winds this TAF period. There is a 30% chance for showers late Sunday, with showers and storms then becoming likely after this TAF period Sunday night into early Monday. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Melto LONG TERM...Melto AVIATION...Titus  777 FXUS66 KPDT 230518 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1018 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag Warnings in effect through 11 PM this evening for abundant lightning and gusty outflow winds for the northern Blue Mountains. - Breezy to windy westerly winds today will overlap with low relative humidity across much of the forecast area. Red Flag Warnings and Wind Advisories are in effect through this evening. && .DISCUSSION... A low-pressure system currently centered near the OR/WA coast will continue to drive an active weather day across the region. Cross-Cascade surface pressure differences have been a bit weaker than anticipated yesterday; observed values in the 7-8 mb range (Portland to Spokane) are a few millibars shy of what we would like to see for widespread windy conditions. That said, NWP guidance shows an increase to 9-11 mb through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. Coupled with a 25-35 kt 850-mb jet through the Cascade gaps and across the Columbia Basin, still anticipating widespread breezy conditions, so have retained the previously issued Wind Advisories which remain in effect through this evening. Additionally, have added patchy blowing dust to the forecast for dust-prone locations within the Columbia Basin region. Confidence is low in timing, magnitude, and duration of any visibility reductions, but given the extended dry conditions, forecast winds will be capable of lofting dust. High-based showers are ongoing across the eastern third of our forecast area, roughly along and east of a line extending from Grant County through Umatilla, Walla Walla, and Franklin counties. Gusty outflow winds in excess of 45 mph have been observed with shower activity in Wallowa County. Additional shower and thunderstorm development will be capable of producing strong, gusty outflow winds due to a deep, well-mixed boundary layer; DCAPE values of roughly 1000-1400 J/kg are in place over the region. CAMs have loosely clustered around the northeastern portion of the Blue Mountains from the Elkhorns north through the northern Blue Mountains for additional thunderstorm development this afternoon. A wide range of solutions remains present among CAMs, many of which produce no significant convection while others initiate and maintain rather robust cells over the aforementioned area. Should robust convection develop, an environment characterized by ample effective shear (30-45 kts) and MUCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg will be capable of maintaining a few strong thunderstorms. Moreover, stronger storms will be capable of producing small hail and severe outflow winds in excess of 60 mph. The low-pressure system will track inland across northern Washington this evening through Sunday, with low (5-10 percent) precipitation chances into tonight. Breezy westerly winds will continue into Sunday, though not anticipating the need for additional headlines for wind or fire weather. Ensemble NWP guidance is in subjectively excellent agreement that a ridge of high pressure will rebuild over the Pacific Northwest by Monday, while a pair of closed lows (one in the Gulf of Alaska, and the other farther south in the eastern Pacific) attempt to merge. A low (5-15 percent) chance of showers and thunderstorms is forecast for the southern Blue Mountains on Monday, with otherwise above-normal temperatures and dry conditions. Later Tuesday through Friday, the then-merged lows (per ensemble mean 500-hPa heights/vorticity and deterministic solutions) will likely (90 percent confidence) track towards the Pacific Northwest (later Tuesday or Wednesday) and eventually inland (Thursday or Friday). This scenario would result in breezy westerly winds through the Cascade gaps and low chances (20 percent or less) of showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... VFR conditions initiate and maintain through the forecast period. DLS/PDT/ALW will see periods of breezy conditions throughout the forecast period with 15 to 25 knot gusts. ALW is forecasted to improve by 00Z while PDT/DLS will see general breezy winds, though not as strong as prior. This should help keep smoke lifted, but ALW/PSC could see a small chance (5 to 15 percent) of MVFR conditions developing overnight with smoke making its way down to the surface. && .FIRE WEATHER... A low-pressure system currently centered near the OR/WA coast will continue to produce widespread breezy to windy westerly winds of 15-25 mph with gusts of 25-40 mph, locally stronger, through this evening. Moreover, a very low to slight chance (5-20%) of high-based showers and thunderstorms will continue roughly from Grant and Umatilla counties eastward to Wallowa County through this evening. Any showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong, gusty outflow winds of 40-60 mph. Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for wind and low relative humidity (WA690, WA691, OR691, OR696, OR698, OR700, and OR703) as well as abundant lightning and gusty outflow winds (OR/WA692) through this evening. Breezy winds will continue overnight into Sunday as the low- pressure system exits to the northeast, but overlap of critical wind/RH thresholds is unlikely (<30% chance). && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 49 82 48 89 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 57 84 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 58 86 52 92 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 59 86 56 90 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 58 85 52 91 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 54 77 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 45 83 45 90 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 51 85 48 93 / 10 0 0 0 GCD 53 87 51 95 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 61 83 58 92 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for WAZ026-522-523. OR...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for ORZ041-044-049-050- 502-503-505>507-509>511. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...95 FIRE WEATHER...86  957 FXUS64 KOHX 230521 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1221 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1218 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Slightly below normal temperatures with dry conditions expected through Monday. - Low to medium rain and storm chances will return Tuesday through the end of the week with seasonable temperatures in the low-90s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday Night) Issued at 1026 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A cold front has worked its way through Middle TN, and drier air is filtering in behind the front. Calm conditions are expected tonight with just patchy fog to keep an eye on. Confidence in fog is once again highest across the Plateau with any fog that does develop diminishing after sunrise. Upper-level troughing remains in place across the eastern CONUS, and in the wake of the front, temperatures on Sunday will cool a few degrees with high temperatures in the mid to upper-80s with dry conditions. Monday will be similar with highs still in the 80s and dry conditions prevailing. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1026 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 By Tuesday, the aforementioned trough shifts to the east and ridging sets up to the west. For Middle TN, this means northwest flow will persist through the end of the week, opening the door for a few shortwaves to move through the area. These shortwaves and an increase in moisture allows for daily low to medium rain chances to return to the forecast Tuesday through the end of the week. Temperatures will also warm a few degrees, but high temperatures in the low-90s will still be seasonably normal. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Mostly VFR conditions, but CSV/SRB will be dealing with overnight VLIFR fog. Lower vis for them should improve by 13-14Z/Sun. Winds will be light from the north. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 88 61 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 85 60 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 81 57 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 90 63 88 63 / 0 0 0 10 Cookeville 83 59 82 58 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 81 58 81 56 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 88 62 86 61 / 0 0 0 10 Murfreesboro 89 61 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 86 62 85 63 / 0 0 0 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Clements LONG TERM....Clements AVIATION.....Unger  031 FXUS63 KARX 230523 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1223 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and pleasant conditions through Monday with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. - Next widespread chance (25 to 55%) for showers and storms in Tuesday into Wednesday. - Seasonable temperatures continue for the rest of this week with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Today - Monday: Dry and Seasonable Northwest flow continues through Monday as a trough sits off to our east and a ridge to our west. This ridge decays as it moves eastward as we go through Monday. With the ridge axis over the central CONUS today and Monday dry conditions continue and high temperatures remain slightly cooler than normal in the mid 70s to low 80s. Dewpoints also remain on the lower side, in the 40s and 50s. The only forecast concern over the next couple of days is some fog. Through this morning it looks to be confined mainly to Mississippi River tributaries. Heading into tonight/early Monday morning, the winds shift to the east southeast which could help the fog potential become more widespread, depending on how when upper level clouds move in. Overall though, a really nice couple of days are in store for us! Tuesday - Wednesday: Storm Potential Circling back to the current conditions, a trough just moved onshore in the Pacific Northwest. This trough will ride around the ridge and eventually move over the Upper Midwest for Tuesday into Wednesday. Forecast soundings from the deterministic GFS and ECMWF show some low-level curvature and elongation with their hodographs. This is slightly different from previous soundings from this morning which highlighted more elongation with little curvature. The GFS and ECMWF both have quite a bit of DCAPE (around 1000 to 1200 J/kg) and modest 0-6km shear (35 to 50 kts). All this to say that if storms can initiate then these parameters would support severe convection. The one caveat to this forecast is that we are still 3 days out from this event, so there are quite a bit of details to iron out still so stay tuned for further updates on this storm potential. Thursday - Sunday: Dry Early with Increased Storm Potential for the Weekend With the trough exiting the region on Wednesday, northwest flow returns for Thursday and Friday resulting in mostly dry conditions. The flow then shifts to a more quasi zonal/northwest flow pattern. Precipitation chances look to increase as we head into the weekend as a couple of shortwaves pass through the region. There is still uncertainty given we are this far out from these waves impacting the region, however a few ensemble members of the GEFS and EPS due show some potential (10%) of 1 to 2" of rain possible. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions and northwesterly winds are expected to prevail through the period outside of some river valley locations overnight tonight. That said, shallow light wind layer at the surface, dry conditions Saturday afternoon, and the northwesterly wind direction all suggest this fog will be limited and stay away from LSE in any case. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cecava AVIATION...Ferguson  998 FXUS64 KEWX 230522 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1222 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1216 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Extreme Heat Warning in effect Sunday for portions of the Hill Country, Austin area, and Coastal Plains. - Potentially dangerous temperatures continue across much of South Central Texas through midweek. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Dangerous heat is anticipated today. Forecast highs this afternoon are above 100F for nearly all of South Central Texas with maxima in the 103F to 107F range for many areas. The latest probabilistic blend of models indicates an over 70% chance that many areas straddling the Colorado River will see highs over 105F this afternoon. Several changes were made to our active heat products to reflect this higher confidence in heat potential. An Extreme Heat Warning is now in effect for areas along the TX-71 corridor, including the Austin area and extending into portions of the Coastal Plains. The preexisting Heat Advisory was also expanded to include additional counties along the Balcones Escarpment into the Winter Garden region. Flow in the latest guidance shows slightly backed surface winds compared to Saturday, which could nudge temperatures higher. Moisture mixing may be slightly more favorable Sunday given this orientation but will likely be too marginal to offer much thermal relief. With the nearby low level theta-e ridge axis remaining mostly to our north, the chance of an isolated afternoon shower bringing a slight cooldown is low, with small chances less than 20% limited to the northern Hill Country. Conditions won't be very different as we head into the workweek with little displacement of the current warm continental airmass, remaining hot and dry. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Little substantive change to the weather pattern is expected for much of the week as strong ridging stays nearly stationary over the southern Rockies into northern Mexico. Temperatures and moisture won't change much with highs staying above 100F for most areas with only a degree or two of day to day variation across the statistical, consensus, and blended models. With high confidence in the heat wave continuing, Heat Advisory products have been extended through Wednesday across much of South Central Texas, and there is some possibility that the heat wave could remain intense after midweek. Later in the week, the core of the dominant ridge slides slightly farther west closer to Arizona. This could provide a little more leeway for an isolated shower or storm to reach our area Thursday or Friday, but the overall setup does not favor much longevity from this potential, and rain chances during that stretch remain generally less than 30 percent for most areas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR flight conditions prevail. There will be occasional high level clouds that mostly favor overnight into early this morning. Few patchy low clouds are possible as well around or just after sunrise but will not lead to any flight impacts. Winds remain of generally 10 kt or less from the south-southwest to east-southeast in direction. The sea breeze after sunset could help to kick up breezes slightly for the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF) between 01Z and 05Z Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 107 79 106 77 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 105 78 104 77 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 104 76 103 74 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 103 76 103 74 / 0 00 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 105 77 104 77 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 105 79 104 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 102 74 101 73 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 104 76 103 75 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 105 76 104 77 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 104 77 102 76 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 105 76 104 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ171>173- 192>194-208-209-223-225. Heat Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ171>173-192>194-208-209-223-225. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ187-189-190-204- 219. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ191-205>207- 220>222-224. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...62  986 FXUS64 KMRX 230521 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 121 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 119 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Showers and storms are currently isolated and expected to dissipate shortly after midnight. - Clearing skies in the early morning hours will lead to fog in the morning hours. Fog may be dense in spots. - A cold front will move through the region by morning bringing cooler, drier conditions today and tomorrow. - Rain chances will return by Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1216 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The cold front is currently on our doorstep over Eastern Kentucky and the Cumberland Plateau on the latest analysis. Showers and storms are currently isolated but new activity is popping up in the foothills of the East Tennessee mountains. CAMs and the NBM agree that showers and storms will dissipate by 1 or 2 AM EDT. Confidence is increasing that clouds will clear out before sunrise and fog will likely be an issue this morning. The front will move through tonight bringing cooler temps and lower dew points today and tomorrow. Sunday and Monday dew points will be in the 50s and highs will be in the 80s (Chattanooga area may hit 90-91). Sunday through Tuesday will be dry with high pressure at the surface. The upper level pattern will be about the same with a deep trough on the East Coast and a ridge centered over the Rockies. The NBM has low rain chances Wednesday increasing to 40-60% chances by Thursday. The trough will be centered over the Ohio Valley again by midweek with a shortwave rotating through the pattern on Thursday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 119 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Rain has come to an end tonight, so the only significant weather concern in this TAF period is the potential for more patchy dense fog this morning. Less certain at KTYS, but included a tempo for IFR conditions at KTRI again. Fog should dissipate near 13z, then VFR skies with light winds and dry weather the remainder of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 65 91 67 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 62 87 63 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 87 61 87 62 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 57 82 57 / 10 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...McD AVIATION...Wellington  077 FXUS65 KCYS 230525 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1125 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected this weekend, with the possibility of widespread rain on Saturday. A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon. Flash flooding is also possible. - Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue Monday through the end of the week with slightly above average temperature expected until Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Another active day is expected this afternoon and evening as a shortwave passes through the upper-level ridge, bringing with it a push of monsoon moisture. Much like yesterday, the early development already being seen is weak and pulsey due to a decent amount of MLCIN still present. As the afternoon progresses, CIN will erode and storms will take advantage of the ample amounts of SBCAPE that the RAP is predicting later this afternoon. The shortwave will provide the lift for storms to develop while decent shear will allow for a few organized cells to sustain themselves. For the most part, hodographs are fairly linear, so multicell clusters and perhaps a small line or two are the favored storm modes. This is supported by Hi-Res guidance showing a similar solution. Although strong winds will be the primary concern in storms, embedded large hail could also be possible. With the monsoon push, PWATs are in the 90th percentile with model soundings showing rather slow cloud layer winds. As a result, heavy rains are expected with flash flooding a possibility. Along with flash flooding, a few severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Although storms are already beginning to fire, the strongest storms are most likely 4 PM and 9 PM this evening. After this timeframe, linger scattered showers are expected throughout southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska for the better part of the overnight. With the remnant moisture from storms and weak southerly flow overnight, patchy fog and low stratus could once again be possible for areas east of the Laramie Range, including the Nebraska panhandle. Sunday does not look as active as Saturday, although precipitation chances are still forecast. The ridge will flatten slightly as a trough skirts the Canadian border. This will cause winds to turn more westerly, which will help dry the low-levels a bit compared to Saturday. The westerly winds also cut down on instability, with model soundings only showing about 1000 J/kg of CAPE. As a result, Hi-Res guidance shows less coverage of storms across the forecast area. Any storms that develop on Sunday are not likely to be severe. With the westerly winds, gusty conditions are expected out west. A decent MSLP gradient will set up with 40 kt winds aloft. This could lead to 40+ MPH wind gusts during the afternoon and evening hours. Winds as well as any showers will dissipate overnight. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Moving into the work week we'll start off on the hot side with a high pressure ridge firmly in control of the Western US. While temperatures will cool just a couple of degrees compared to Sunday, highs still sit warmer than average by around 5-8 degrees. A cold front will be approaching the region with another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms on tap including locally stronger to weakly severe activity possible. By Tuesday though a backdoor cold front will offer very meager respite as highs drop by around 2-6 degrees, closer to near average but still above by up to a few degrees. Similarly, moisture will continue to remain just above average at around 120-140% of average, equating to PWAT values of0.75-1.25 inches. While not impressive by any stretch of the imagination, this should continue to fuel daytime thunderstorms with a marginal risk of severe activity. Wednesday through the end of the week look to be largely similar with a steady warming trend, bringing us back to temperatures similar to Monday alongside continued daily afternoon thunderstorm risk under westerly to northwesterly flow. Drier air will slowly infiltrate through the week though, and this will begin to steadily increase our fire weather risk with elevated conditions at least by Friday. Anyone expecting an early end to summer will be sorely disappointed in the last full week of August. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1125 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Showers and thunderstorms will push east through the CWA for the next hour or so and mainly impact KSNY. These storms may lead to lower CIGs and VIS. Then, through the overnight hours, clouds will lift and clear through tomorrow, bringing a return of VFR conditions by the end of this TAF forecast. Breezy winds with gusts 15-25 knots are possible across most terminals except KBFF and KCDR at various times for this TAF period. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SF LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...RZ  146 FXUS61 KPBZ 230526 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 126 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Risk for severe weather this afternoon/evening in northwest PA is lower, with no other hazardous weather anticipated through at least mid week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Spotty showers with low probability thunderstorm chances possible through this evening. 2) Minimal hazards for majority of week before widespread precipitation chances return to end the week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Upper troughing lingering over the upper OH River valley combined with cold advection over warm Lake Erie waters is enough to produced localized, brief showers with a low probability for thunderstorms through this evening. While SBCAPE peaks around 1000 J/kg around the I-80 corridor (enough to foster deeper convection), such lackluster shear (struggling to touch 20kts) should limit enough organization/intensification to keep storms below severe thresholds. Activity generally comes to an end after sunset as subsidence and loss of heating suppresses activity. The exception is near/north of I-80 in northwest PA where an embedded shortwaves in NW could create short periods where showers (mainly) through Monday. KEY MESSAGE 2... Lingering cool advection within northwest flow results in high temperatures around 10 degrees below the daily average Monday while high pressure supports dry weather (save for a low probability shower near Lake Erie). Height rises over the surface high ensures dry weather persists Tuesday into Wednesday while elevating temperature back to near the seasonal averages. Ensembles remain firm in an upper shortwave digging through the Ohio River Valley Thursday into Friday, creating the next round of widespread shower and thunderstorm chances. Model differences in timing of upper shortwave and surface boundary movement leaves large variability in potential storm environments (ex: spread between 25th-75th percentile SBCAPE values Thursday afternoon is around 700 J/kg, a significant value). Trough passage within the summer season means this period should be monitored, but little more can be confidently said at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Pockets of MVFR to locally IFR stratus remain possible ahead of the surface cold early this morning due to residual boundary layer moisture. A brief light rain shower can't be ruled out but overall activity is too localized to include in the TAF. Diurnal heating/mixing within the post-frontal environment likely fosters scattered to broken VFR cu (though a period of MVFR as cigs rise is possible) today. Cool NW flow may tap into warm Lake Erie waters as an aid for generating pop-up brief afternoon showers, with probabilities highest at FKL/DUJ given lake proximity. Lingering surface gradient/steep lapse rates also fosters NW afternoon winds between 15-25kts. Outlook... Outside of low probability rain showers near Lake Erie through Monday, building high pressure and height rises aloft favor VFR through the middle of next week. The next widespread restriction and rain chances returns near the end of the week. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Frazier AVIATION...Frazier  153 FXUS63 KDLH 230526 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1226 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few sprinkles are possible this afternoon among the daytime clouds today. Clearing tonight may lead to areas of dense fog. - The next chance for showers and storms will be Monday night through Tuesday. Severe storms are possible particularly Tuesday afternoon with the passage of a cold front. - Seasonal, dry conditions return mid next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Diurnal cumulus clouds occurring this afternoon will continue, and some of these clouds may produce sprinkles, particularly in the Minnesota Arrowhead. Breezy northwest winds will gradually lighten toward evening as surface high pressure settles over the region. For tonight, mostly clear skies and light winds will allow for radiational cooling. Patchy fog will develop after midnight, with best chances for areas of dense fog in the Iron Range. Sunday will bring pleasant and quiet weather across the area with mostly sunny skies as surface high pressure remains in control. Cool low temperatures in the 40s are expected overnight. Moving into Monday, shortwave ridging aloft will maintain dry conditions through most of the daylight hours. Moisture will begin returning later in the day as an upper-level low approaches from the northwest. Elevated CAPE with a warm front will lead to chances for showers and storms Monday night into early Tuesday. The environment will be less conducive for convection Tuesday morning as warm, moist air continues to be advected into the region. Tuesday afternoon and evening, a cold front will move through and will help convection redevelop for eastern portions of the Northland. Some storms could also be severe as instability maximizes with sufficient wind shear ahead of the front. Showers and non-severe thunderstorms will remain possible into Wednesday as cyclonic flow lingers behind the departing system. Precipitation will gradually taper off from west to east as the low pressure area shifts into the Great Lakes region. High pressure and northwest flow aloft return for the second half of the work week, bringing a return to dry conditions across the Northland for Thursday and Friday. Precipitation chances remain below fifteen percent through the end of the period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period. The main exception is for the development of fog and reduced visibilities during the early morning hours. For now, it appears some of our more fog prone locations may dip to IFR visibilities, with MVFR/VFR elsewhere. The fog is expected to burn off shortly after sunrise. Light winds will prevail through the TAF period under building high pressure. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Northwest winds of 5 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots will continue this afternoon on western Lake Superior before easing tonight. Waves will remain around 1 to 2 feet or less. Light and variable winds are expected for Sunday. No marine headlines or thunderstorm threats are expected through Monday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Breezy northwest winds this afternoon will gust up to 20 to 25 mph with minimum relative humidity values dipping into the 30 to 45 percent range. Winds weaken significantly on Sunday, but minimum relative humidity will drop a bit lower to 30 to 40 percent. A few spots could dip below 30 percent. Relative humidity remains low Monday before moisture increases midweek, when chances for scattered showers and storms return. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KML AVIATION...LE MARINE...KML FIRE WEATHER...KML  141 FXUS64 KJAN 230526 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1226 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous heat stress is expected across portions of the forecast area over the next several days. - Isolated to scattered severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible in the Highway 82 corridor this evening into early tonight. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 712 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Rest of tonight... Unsettled pattern remains on track across the region. Storms have developed along shortwave diving southeast into the MS River corridor. This is tapping into deep unstable environment and deep layer shear of 25-35kts is driving robust convection into the Mid South region to just into north MS. Based on the overall southeast propagation and coordination with SPC and local offices, the severe thunderstorm watch was expanded eastward to the MS/AL border. These areas in the Golden Triangle could see some storm potential over the next couple of hours. The watch continues through 10PM. Some showers and storms will persist into the evening to overnight hours, but any robust convection that makes it in will mostly wind down before midnight. Heat and humidity is somewhat improving but still have a large portion of heat indices in excess of 95-100F degrees and temperatures still hovering above 90-95F degrees. Heat advisory continues through 8PM with additional heat concerns into Sunday. Lows will remain seasonably warm (70-75F). Updates are out. /DC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 This afternoon through Monday: Another hot afternoon is expected as dangerous heat conditions continue across the region. Highs in the upper 90s/near 100 degrees with heat indices between 105-110F west of I-55. A Heat Advisory will remain in effect until this evening. In addition to hot conditions, a disturbance from the Central Plains will push through late this afternoon. Combining with daytime heating to provide thunderstorm chances north of I-20. A Slight (2 out of 5) risk for severe weather for extreme northwest MS (Bolivar, Sunflower, Leflore,and Grenada counties) and a marginal (1 out of 5) risk north of I-20. Primary hazard of concern will be damaging wind gusts. Persistent hot/humid conditions will continue Sunday. Dangerous heat conditions is expected with greatest heat stress over the southwest where heat indices reach 110 degrees are expected. Another heat advisory will be issued on Sunday for all of our northeast LA parishes and portions of southwest/west/central/southeast MS. A weak frontal boundary will push southward, briefly "cooling" temps to the lower 90s with heat indices near 105 for Monday. Tuesday through Saturday: High pressure will retrograde towards the Southwest CONUS with a trough axis setting up across the Southern CONUS. As a result, northwest flow across the area will allow a few weak disturbances to increase afternoon rain chances throughout the week. Heat and humidity will be on the rebound as heat indices begin to increase to 110 degrees west of I-55. Heat headlines and advisories will likely be needed as the week progress. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Winds will be light and variable tonight and northerly (sustained/gusts under 10mph) into Sunday. /86/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 99 74 91 73 / 10 50 70 10 Meridian 98 73 91 72 / 10 50 60 20 Vicksburg 97 75 91 74 / 20 40 60 10 Hattiesburg 99 75 93 74 / 30 30 60 10 Natchez 100 76 95 75 / 10 20 40 0 Greenville 98 73 91 73 / 10 40 70 30 Greenwood 96 72 89 72 / 10 40 70 40 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>066-072>074. LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026. AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. && $$ DC/SW/LP  186 FXUS65 KTFX 230527 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1127 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon capable of briefly heavy rainfall and gusty winds. - Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and early evening ahead of a cold front bringing drier and breezy conditions. - Cooler in most areas Monday before temperatures trend closer to, if not above average by mid-week. A few showers and thunderstorms will be around most days next week, primarily across Southwest MT. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 644 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: High amplitude upper level ridging is slipping east of the region this afternoon ahead of an upper level trough moving onshore across the Pacific NW. Resulting flow aloft is southwesterly, which in combination with an embedded wave lifting northeastward from the base of the upper trough will result in quite a few showers and thunderstorms today. This activity looks to develop across SW MT initially, spreading northeastward into Central MT and vicinity with time. PWATs are elevated, signaling the risk for some heavy rainfall in the strongest thunderstorms. Modest inverted-V profiles suggest strong wind gusts will be the primary concern from a severe weather perspective today, should thunderstorms be able to congeal into at least a broken line. Looking toward tonight forcing increases, especially west of the Continental Divide, as the core of the upper trough approaches the Northern Rockies. There looks to be quite a bit of showers or thunderstorms that develop west of the Continental Divide as a result, with a few of these leaking east of the divide through the overnight. Forcing and flow aloft increases further for Sunday as the upper level system moves overhead and eventually east of the region Sunday night. A cold front moves through associated with this system, bringing cooler temperatures, much drier air, and gusty winds. Ahead of this front there looks to be ample instability, forcing, and marginal kinematics to result in at least a few loosely organized thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. Both strong wind gusts and large hail will be a concern in the most robust thunderstorms. This activity largely looks to develop east of I-15 and continue eastward Sunday. Heading into next week the trend is for weak ridging now across the NW CONUS, which will keep a slightly anticyclonic flow aloft in place. This looks to inhibit showers and thunderstorms for a day or two in most areas, though monsoonal moisture stuck in the southern periphery of the ridge will still result in a few showers and thunderstorms in SW MT near the Idaho border. The ridge axis slowly slips east through the week, with flow aloft becoming slightly more cyclonic each day as another Pacific trough begins to approach the Pacific NW. Showers and thunderstorms gradually increase in coverage mid-week onwards, focused mostly in the afternoon and evening. -AM - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Thunderstorms today: Clearing is being noted on latest satellite imagery across much of ID and into SW MT. This will result in at least weak instability through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. The degree to which the area destabilizes will play a large role in how widespread the risk will be for strong wind gusts. Longer periods of sunny skies would increase this risk over shorter periods of sunshine. Precipitable water (PWAT) values near and in excess of an inch will yield at least a localized risk for briefly heavy rainfall today in the strongest thunderstorms. Should a strong thunderstorm move across an urban area or a burn scar, excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding will be a concern. Overall, the risk for this across any specific area is too low to warrant any flash flood watches. Although this is the case, those in urban areas and near burn scars should be aware of this risk today. Thunderstorms Sunday: Stronger flow aloft arrives with he core of the upper level disturbance ahead of the cold front Sunday. Lingering moisture ahead of the cold front looks to combine with daytime destabilization to result in modest instability by the early afternoon across many areas. Forcing does not look to be lacking Sunday, with the primary limiting factor on organized thunderstorms being slightly sub- optimal shear (Closer to 30kts than 40kts). That said, at least loosely organized thunderstorms look to develop Sunday, mainly east of I-15, which will be capable of strong wind gusts and large hail. Should shear trend much higher, concern would increase for longer lasting, more organized severe thunderstorms. Mid to late week: Guidance has been inconsistent with respect to the progression of Pacific troughing moving in mid to late week. There is a roughly 50/50 split in cluster guidance members for above average heights (Warmer temps) vs below average heights (Cooler temps) across the region by the end of the week. -AM && .AVIATION... 23/06Z TAF Period Scattered showers and thunderstorms over central and north- central MT will continue to weaken and dissipate as they move northeastward during the overnight hours. A trough will move northeastward out of the Pacific NW into S BC/AB today. This will send a surface front through the Northern Rockies and increase westerly winds on Sunday. There will also be widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, mostly for locations east of I15. Some of these storms may contain wind gusts over 40 kts, brief downpours, and hail in addition to cloud to ground lightning. Primarily VFR conditions will prevail away from stronger convective cores. For KGTF: Westerly winds increase to 10 to 20 kts with gusts up to 35 kts at times roughly between 23/16Z and 24/03Z. Afternoon convection looks to mostly stay east of the terminal but there is around a 30% chance for a shower or storm to impact the terminal. Thunderstorm hazards may include erratic wind gusts over 40 kts, brief downpours, and hail in addition to cloud to ground lightning. - RCG && .FIRE WEATHER... Although precipitable water is above average today, a few lightning ignitions cannot be ruled out in locally dry areas, particularly in terrain. The most concerning fire weather day will be on Sunday when a surface front brings gusty westerly winds amid continued very warm and dry conditions. The timing of this front will ultimately determine how long the dry and windy conditions persist. The latest NBM probabilistic guidance continues to highlight large areas of north- central and portions of southwest Montana with over a 70% chance for wind gusts over 30 mph. Although the fuels aren't quite as dry as they were in earlier in the month, elevated fire conditions will be present and the wind may be enough to ignite any lightning caused hold over fires from Friday and Saturday's storms. In addition to the winds, there will be more widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with strong, erratic wind gusts. -AM/RCG && .HYDROLOGY... The combination of increased monsoonal moisture aloft and lower level moisture moving in from the east today will result in a 10% chance for localized heavy thunderstorm rains producing flash flooding over and near burn scars, urban areas, and other normally flood prone locations. While this activity will be monitored for the aforementioned flash flooding, a flash flood watch will issued with this forecast package per the more scattered nature of higher rainfall rates and progressive storm motion. The moisture profile begins thin on Sunday, which will reduce the threat for excessive rainfall through early next week. - RCG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 62 89 54 81 / 20 20 0 0 CTB 58 81 50 77 / 20 20 0 0 HLN 57 87 50 85 / 60 30 0 0 BZN 54 86 49 85 / 50 50 10 0 WYS 46 78 40 79 / 50 30 10 0 DLN 52 85 47 84 / 40 20 0 0 HVR 62 93 56 82 / 10 50 10 0 LWT 60 89 53 79 / 20 50 10 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  245 FXUS61 KRLX 230529 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 129 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 06Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update. 712 PM Update... Aviation discussion update for ~00z TAFs. 514 PM Update... Expanded the Severe Thunderstorm Watch to cover portions of southern West Virginia and our northeastern Kentucky counties. 158 PM Update... A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for portions of southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia this afternoon for storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Severe weather potential grows in earnest this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. Storms will be capable of produce damaging winds, hail, and heavy downpours that may lead to flash flooding. 2) In the wake of the front, a stretch of dry weather settles into the region alongside a brief cool down in temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... 514 PM Update... The severe thunderstorm watch that goes until 9 PM tonight has been expanded to include portions of southern WV and all of northeastern KY. This is a conditional risk as previous rounds of storms have weakened instability some across the area. HRRR and RAP still show pockets of 2,500 to 3,500 CAPE across the area in locations where storms have not moved through yet. These will be areas to watch for pop up strong to severe thunderstorms as another round is projected to move through this afternoon and evening. 158 PM Update... Earnest shower and thunderstorm development is underway across the Ohio River Valley out ahead of a cold front slated to pass overhead tonight into Sunday morning. An unstable airmass preceding the front has yielded optimal conditions for cumulus to quickly develop further into scattered showers and storms. With destabilization quickly arising, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued in collaboration with the Storm Prediction Center and neighboring offices. This Watch currently encompasses portions of southeast Ohio and north-central West Virginia, where severe weather may be observed within the next few hours. Additional expansion of the Watch is not out of the question for the southern half of the forecast area, but will continue to monitor the evolution of storms to determine how the rest of the afternoon and evening will shake out. Storms preceding the front today will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail, and heavy downpours that may lead to flash flooding. While some soil recovery has occurred in locations who recently faced a multitude of days featuring flooding, additional rainfall could invigorate further hydro impacts across the region. Storms will be progressive in nature, which should help to alleviate a response from instantaneous rainfall rates, but locations would then be susceptible to any training effects that may set up through the course of the evening. Convection marches into the post-sunset timeframe, but will gradually diminish with the progression of the front overnight. Precipitation will then bank up along the northeast WV mountains by early Sunday morning and wrap up altogether by daybreak once the front has completed its passage through the mountains. KEY MESSAGE 2... In the wake of the cold front, Sunday will feature the start of dry weather that stretches into the start of next week. High pressure settling into the Ohio Valley will yield a push of dry air, alongside much cooler temperatures. Daytime highs will span the 60s along the mountains and 70s to low 80s in the lower elevations, while overnight conditions will feature low temperatures tumbling down into the 50s and 60s. Next opportunity for precipitation arrives for the second half of the work week, when a warming trend instigates diurnally driven showers and storms over the Central Appalachians. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Cold frontal passage is taking place and the front will exit by the mid morning. This feature is promoting surface flow and stronger flow right off the surface both enough to deter much fog formation. Not to mention low clouds lingering along and ahead of the front that is bringing down a few sites to MVFR/IFR such as CKB/EKN/BKW which should only last through the morning. Once any lingering CIGs and patchy fog lifts after 13Z, VFR will dominate the rest of this period until tonight when valley fog is expected to develop under calm and clear conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions from fog and low stratus may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 08/23/26 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M H L H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M L H M M M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H L M M M M L M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M L M M M M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H M M L H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR conditions possible in low stratus and fog Monday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05/LTC AVIATION...JZ  208 FXUS65 KPUB 230528 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1128 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increased coverage of showers and storms expected tomorrow, with flash flood potential, especially along the Aspen Acres burn scar. - Showers and storms continue through much of the incoming week, though with a downtrend in coverage late week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 202 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Tonight: For Saturday night, active weather persist for portions of south central and southeastern Colorado. A ridge of high pressure will be in place just to the south of the region. Along the northern periphery of this feature, a short wave will push across the area through the evening and overnight hours. The increased support from this wave, along with abundant monsoonal moisture in place, will allow for storms that develop along the higher terrain earlier in the day to push eastward across the plains overnight. The greatest coverage of storms is expected north of Highway 50, where support from the wave will be best. In addition, outflow from these storms may initiate further thunderstorm development along and just south of Highway 50, but this will be highly dependent on how outflows evolve during this period. With high precipitable water values between 1-.1.5 inches, heavy rainfall and strong outflow winds around 55 mph from wet microburst/heavy water laden downdrafts will be possible with stronger thunderstorms. Outside of that, light showers will fester around the mountain and valley areas. Heading into the early morning hours though, most, if not all, showers and storms are anticipated to be dissipate as the shortwave exits. Beyond all of that, winds will weaken and become lighter overnight, around 10 mph, with clouds lingering through much of the evening and overnight as well. Looking at temperatures, given the moisture and cloud cover in place, another mild to warm night is anticipated, with the plains cooling into the 60s to low 70s, the valleys into the 50s to low 60s, and the mountains into the low 40s to 50s. Tomorrow: Heading into Sunday, another day of active weather is anticipated for south central and southeastern Colorado. The ridge of high pressure will remain to our south, with monsoonal moisture continuing to stream up and around the ridge and into the region. Like Saturday and Saturday night, this moisture, combined with vort maxes and a short wave within the broader flow, will bring another day of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Showers and storms are expected to first blossom along the mountains, and then ooze across the valleys and adjacent plains by mid to late afternoon. With another day of high precipitable water values around 1-1.2 inches, more heavy rainfall and strong outflow winds around 50 mph from water laden downdrafts is expected with any stronger storms. Also given the increased coverage, flash flooding may become a concern, especially across the Aspen Acres burn scar. Given this, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for this area for Sunday. Outside of all of that, afternoon winds will remain fairly light, around 10 mph, with cloud cover increasing heading into the afternoon hours. As for temperatures, another hot day with above seasonal values is expected, with the plains warming into the low to upper 90s, the valleys into the low to upper 80s, and the mountains into the mid 50s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 202 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Sunday Night - Friday: For the rest of the forecast period, active weather persist across south central and southeastern Colorado. The ridge of high pressure to south will remain there, but will slowly meander further to the southwest throughout the week. While monsoon moisture will continue to stream around this feature and into the area, it will become less and less as the high pressure cuts-off the better quality moisture heading through week. With that all said, daily afternoon and evening showers and storms are still expected each day, with the greatest coverage through Wednesday, with a progressive downtrend in coverage Thursday and Friday. Otherwise, winds will continue to remain relatively light, with afternoon and evening clouds expected. Temperatures will also remain elevated, with much of the region staying at above seasonal values through the week, especially for the end of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1125 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions anticipated across the forecast area, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS, during the overnight hours, though decided to maintain mention of VCSH at KCOS and KPUB until 07z as a few light showers linger. On Sunday, convection expected to redevelop over the higher terrain by 18z-19z, spreading to lower elevations after 20z. KCOS and KPUB: PROB30 for -TSRA once again starting 21z-22z and lasting until 03z. KALS: PROB30 for variable gusts and -TSRA again starting at 20z, lasting until 02z. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for COZ079-080-086. && $$ SHORT TERM...SIMCOE LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...MOORE  309 FXUS61 KAKQ 230530 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 130 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated aviation section for 00z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers and some embedded thunderstorms expected today. Isolated instances of flooding possible at the coast and isolated severe weather possible for western counties. 2) Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered diurnally driven convection returns by the middle to latter part of the week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 230 PM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered showers and some embedded thunderstorms expected today. Isolated instances of flooding possible at the coast and isolated severe weather possible for western counties. A quasi-stationary boundary with weak low pressure along it is still located just south of the area as of mid-day surface analysis. A cold front is approaching the Appalachian region. Aloft, a trough axis is located just to the west, placing the FA under SW flow. Radar trends have been interesting today. Due to conflicting flows at the surface and in the mid/upper levels, showers have been nearly stationary. Luckily, these have been mostly limited to over the marine areas, so flood advisories and warnings have not been necessary so far. There is also enough shear to support rotation in one of the storms over the Ches Bay, which resulted in an SMW. Additional isolated showers are starting to pop up over coastal land areas, though. With little to no movement, PWATs climbing toward 2", and instability sitting at ~1000 J/kg, flash flooding could still be a threat where these showers pop up. Based on the HREF/REFS outputs, the highest threat may be on the Eastern Shore once the sfc front slides northeast and those existing showers finally drift east. This thinking lines up well with the updated Day 1 ERO that trimmed the Slight Risk (level 2/4) to just the Eastern Shore. These showers (and a few rumbles of thunder) will likely persist into this evening until the incoming cold front kicks them out. Speaking of the cold front, it will likely sweep through the local area during the overnight hours. Additional showers/storms will be possible with the front, particularly across the piedmont and northern counties. The 12z HREF indicates that 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE along with 25-30kt of shear should linger long enough into the evening to support a couple of stronger storms. The SPC did expand the Marginal risk for severe weather into the western counties to cover this. Damaging wind gusts is the primary threat. Timing looks to be 8p-12a. KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered diurnally driven convection returns by the middle to latter part of the week. The weak front will finally move offshore late Sunday, as the main upper level trough axis shifts offshore and surface high pressure builds into the SE CONUS. The surface high will usher in a drier airmass with seasonable temperatures in the 80s and dew points in the 60s Sunday. A reinforcing intrusion of dry air is likely Monday/ Tuesday with dew points in the 50s looking likely (except 60s far SE). Unsettled conditions and isolated- scattered aftn/evening convection returning mid to late week as the sfc high breaks down. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Sunday... Showers (w/ a few embedded storms) are clearing the area early this morning. A ~1 hr period of sub-VFR conditions is possible at SBY from these showers. Elsewhere, VFR should prevail through this morning and afternoon. Light and variable winds become W 5-10 kt this afternoon. Outlook: Dry and prevailing VFR conditions expected through the early-mid week period. && .MARINE... As of 125 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Generally benign marine conditions are expected through the weekend into early next week. - Showers and occasional thunderstorms are expected today, with diminishing chances of showers and thunderstorms Sunday into early next week. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail this weekend through much of next week. A weak surface trough remains centered along the coast today. Meanwhile, a larger trough moves in from the west late today into tonight. Scattered showers and storms have developed along the first trough over the Ches Bay and are expected to continue through this afternoon. Additional showers/storms are possible with the second trough this evening. Winds this afternoon were SE 5-10 kt for most of the local waters with locally stronger winds of 10-15 kt across the middle Ches Bay. A few gusts up to 20 kt are possible across the Ches Bay through tonight, however, confidence in frequent gusts to 20 kt is too low to issue SCAs at this time. Otherwise, a warm front slowly lifts north later today into tonight, allowing winds to become SW 10-15 kt behind the front tonight. A cold front slowly pushes across the local waters Sun with high pressure building in behind it. As such, winds become light and variable Sun. Another weak cold front crosses the coast early Mon with a brief wind shift to NW, before becoming variable with speeds remaining less than 10kt. Yet another weak cold front crosses the coast early Tue, resulting in a brief wind shift to N/NNE. High pressure settles off the Southeast coast from mid to late week, resulting in SE-SW flow at or below 15kt. Seas of 2-3 ft continue through the week with predominant seas of only around 2 ft. Meanwhile, waves remain 1 ft to occasionally 2 ft waves in the Ches Bay. A low rip risk will be maintained through Tue. Will note that while winds become onshore Tue, nearshore seas remain only around 1-2 ft which should limit the rip current risk. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AC/SW AVIATION...SW MARINE...RMM  523 FXUS63 KLBF 230532 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A chance for thunderstorms returns to much of the area tonight into early Sunday with a few stronger storms possible in the southern Panhandle through southwest Nebraska where hail and damaging winds will be the primary concerns. - Rain and thunderstorms will continue through Sunday and lead to much cooler temperatures in the upper 70s for central Nebraska, warming to upper 80s/lower 90s west of Highway 83. - Multiple disturbances crossing the upper ridge will allow for daily rain and thunderstorm chances for much of the upcoming week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 This afternoon, skies have largely cleared out from morning thunderstorms that departed prior to dawn to the south and east. Gradually, diurnal cumulus has begun to develop across the area but shows no vertical development so is not anticipated to be much for than a partly sunny afternoon for much of the local area. Temperatures ranged from the upper 70s to lower 80s and we should see a few more degrees added to these values through the peak of the afternoon with breezy east/southeast winds gusting around 20 to 25 mph. Late this afternoon/tonight...shortwave ridging will begin to breakdown as a lead shortwave lifts north and east across Wyoming and into western South Dakota/Nebraska this evening. As this occurs, southeasterly upslope flow will reinforce low to middle 60s dew points reaching the Front Range. Orographic lift and mid-level height falls coinciding with peak heating will allow scattered thunderstorms to develop along the I-25 corridor even as residual capping remains in place. Though instability should wane further east, steep lapse rates aloft and and a modest low-level jet should help maintain convection further east into the evening. The late morning update from the Storm Prediction Center trimmed up the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) across the local area but it still includes portions of our Panhandle and southwest Nebraska zones. Given storms are likely to be fairly disorganized and potentially weakening slightly, believe outflow winds will be the primary concern. As thunderstorms continue to move east, indications are that activity may increase in coverage again towards Highway 83 late tonight. This is likely driven by increased theta-e advection from an increasing LLJ. Instability will be relatively poor as lapse rates decrease so any threat for severe will largely be over by late this evening but greater coverage of general thunderstorms may support a greater potential for rain across the area. Accordingly, have given PoPs a boost for areas east of Highway 83 with values in the 35-45 percent range. HREF localized probability-matched mean shows spotty coverage of QPF > 1.50" with a reasonable buffer of amounts surpassing 0.25". This aligns nearly perfectly with Highway 83 through 12z (7am CDT) Sunday and generally matches the anticipated west to east progression of activity (meaning most locations east of Highway 183 may not see anything until after daybreak Sunday). With the rain and clouds, overnight lows were boosted slight with most locations holding in the low to middle 60s. Sunday/Sunday Night...by early Sunday, the main shortwave trough will be directly overhead and shifting east-southeast through the early part of the day. The passing trough axis will likely signal the end of precipitation chances and have PoPs ending for our western zones by late morning. Further east, particularly north central Nebraska, activity may persist into the afternoon and evening as another late afternoon/evening low-level jet forms and points into south central South Dakota. Limited instability locally coincident with the expected forcing should preclude any severe threat and this aligns with the latest SPC Day 2 outlook which keeps any severe mention to our north. The daytime temperature forecast proved tricky, with large variations in statistical guidance (~10F difference between MET and MAV guidance). Utilized a blend of both to land in the middle but favored the cooler MET guidance slightly given anticipated longer dwelling rain and thunderstorms for central Nebraska. This resulted in afternoon highs ranging from the upper 70s in our north central zones to upper 80s/lower 90s for the western Sandhills/Panhandle/southwest. Similar temperatures are expected Sunday night with forecast lows in the low to middle 60s for all of the area. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Upper level ridging will remain in place over the southern Rockies. This will promote continued zonal to quasi-northwesterly flow aloft for the Central Plains early in the week. Eventually, the upper ridge will retrograde and allow predominant northwesterly flow to become established across the region. Multiple disturbances will drop southeast within the mid-level flow and these along with associated trailing cool front should promote near-daily rain and thunderstorm chances locally with temperatures favoring near to slightly above normal for late August. The expected proximity to a mid-level speed max will largely keep severe weather in play though day-to-day predictability will largely hinge on mesoscale features that coarser mid-range models will struggle to resolve at this timescale. While the pattern doesn't suggest widespread beneficial rainfall across the area, NBM probabilities suggest at least the potential for a few areas to see wetting rains next week. This is especially true each afternoon/evening Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday where probabilities for exceeding 0.25" rainfall climb to around 25- 35 percent. As mentioned before, this will largely come down to smaller scale features which won't be forecasted with greater confidence for a few days still. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are expected to track east across western Nebraska and the Sandhills overnight, tracking into north central Nebraska by the morning. For now, mostly low end VFR conditions are occurring, but expecting a drop to MVFR conditions as coverage increases tonight. Any thunderstorm will bring the risk for gusty, erratic winds and brief visibility restrictions. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger through the early afternoon across north central Nebraska, remaining mostly east of KVTN. As storms track east of the terminals, though clouds are expected to begin decreasing, the remaining clouds may remain low end VFR. Gusty winds are expected through the late morning and afternoon, with gusts calming by the evening, as an inversion develops. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NMJ LONG TERM...NMJ AVIATION...Richie  537 FXUS63 KLSX 230533 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 1233 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pleasant and mostly dry conditions are expected through the upcoming week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Northwest flow continues aloft across the region. A ridge is bringing hot weather out west while a trough over the Great Lakes is bringing considerably cooler weather in the east. At the surface, high pressure is pushing south into the Northern Plains, with winds out of the north across our region bringing in drier air. As this high nudges further south overnight we'll see winds die off and temperatures drop in the fresh dry air mass. Lows tonight will dip into the low to mid 60s, with some upper 50s possible in the cooler spots. Sunday will be one of the coolest days of this air mass with highs only reaching into the low 80s. Some mid and high level cloud cover will contribute to those lower temperatures. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 This week we continue in some flavor of western ridging and eastern troughing, keeping our area in the northwest flow in between. Showers and thunderstorms rotating around the ridge stay largely west of our area, keeping us mainly dry through Tuesday with temperatures eventually making a modest rebound back into the mid to upper 80s. The initial eastern trough weakens and lifts into the Canadian Maritimes by midweek, but it gets replaced by a new trough arriving from around the top of the ridge. It's this trough that's probably the most interesting feature for our weather this week. It initially arrives in the Pacific Northwest tomorrow but moves into the western Great Lakes on Wednesday. As it does so, it will slide another cold front southward through the middle of the country, pushing through our area Wednesday or Wednesday night. This represents our best chance of rain this week, though those chances aren't particularly high at this point. Most of the forcing from the trough passes by to our north while the better moisture and instability remains further south. NBM PoP remains quite low, generally 20 percent or less, but if we look at the low resolution ensemble guidance we see that 50 to 60 percent of these members produce measurable rain in the 24 hours ending Wednesday night. It's the timing and location uncertainty that's holding PoP lower at this point, but this does represent our best chance of rain locally this week. Wednesday's front may knock temperatures back a few degrees, but guidance is in general agreement that the western ridge weakens and broadens later in the week, nudging its influence eastward. This would nudge us back toward warmer temperatures, but not as extreme as we've seen recently. We'll also have a few other opportunities for rain as shortwave troughs round the edge of the ridge even as it approaches our area. However, confidence in the timing and track of those waves is even lower than for Wednesday's trough, so daily rain chances remain fairly minimal in the current forecast until that confidence changes. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR flight conditions and light northwest flow is expected to prevail through Sunday. There will likely be some river fog again Monday morning which will locally reduce the visibility to 1SM or less. Any fog that develops should dissipate quickly after sunrise. Winds will become light and variable late Monday afternoon, and then turn to the south-southeast across Missouri in the evening as high pressure drifts into Illinois and Indiana. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KimbleLONG TERM...Kimble AVIATION...Carney  449 FXUS63 KMQT 230531 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 131 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable temperatures are expected through next week with the exception of slightly below normal temperatures Sunday and Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Afternoon water vapor imagery reveals quite nicely the midlevel trough dropping into the Great Lakes, with a surface low centered over Lake Huron. Steepening lapse rates courtesy of the resulting CAA into the region is aiding in the development of scattered convection over the central UP, with some additional spotty showers in the eastern UP. Day Cloud RGB shows plenty of glaciation over the south-central UP, and indeed some stray flashes have been observed already. That said, with little by way of shear, storms are coming up just enough to get a couple strikes, then falling back down again. With freezing levels at around 10kft and a -20C at around 20kft, an ambitious taller cell could perhaps make a run for some small hail. Otherwise, strong storms are not expected. Meanwhile, with a tight pressure gradient over the region as ridging expands eastward from the Northern Plains as well as decent mixing into the core of 20-30kt winds aloft, winds are turning becoming elevated this afternoon. NW wind gusts up to 20mph are becoming common, but higher gusts to 30mph will not be out of the question by late afternoon in the eastern UP. Temperatures peak cooler than in previous days, only in the upper 60s to lower 70s for most and possibly the mid 70s in the south-central. Precipitation tapers off this evening, followed by mostly clear skies overnight. Temperatures bottom out in the lower to mid 40s inland, and the lower 50s near the lakeshores. Still, with note a potential for some of our typically cooler spots to slip into the upper 30s, a la the NBM 10th percentile. By Sunday morning, much of the hi-res guidance favors some spotty shower activity over the north-central UP, perhaps due to cool upsloping flow. Breezy conditions continue for Sunday with NW wind gusts up to 20-30mph, while temperatures come in a couple degrees cooler; expect highs in the mid to upper 60s for most. Some interior spots likely will dip back into the upper 30s Sunday night under clear skies. High pressure moving in from the west keeps weather dry through Monday, likely through most of Tuesday as well before the next mid level trough moves through the region midweek. This brings back shower and storm chances for Tuesday night and Wednesday, then dry weather is favored the rest of the work week. Expect more summer- like temperatures to return this week, with highs ranging in the 70s to near 80 Monday onwards and lows generally in the 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period for CMX and IWD. As temperatures drop aloft lake effect clouds and showers will develop over Lake Superior early this morning, potentially impacting SAW during the morning into the early afternoon. CIGs at SAW will be borderline VFR/MVFR during this time and likely fall to MVFR in any showers that impact the site. Confidence is still low on coverage and timing so kept the mention to a prob30. As mixing increases through the day expect winds to gust as high as 25kt at CMX/SAW from mid morning into the afternoon. The low level will stabilize around sunset with wind falling below 10tk. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Lake Superior - NW winds are on the increase this afternoon, already gusting to around 20-25kts over the eastern half of the lake so far. Higher gusts up to 25-30kts become more common into the late afternoon. Gusts approach 20 kts over the west. As winds become more northerly tonight, central lake superior winds increase to 15-25 kts; the stronger winds to 30 kts over the east persist. This holds into Sunday morning before winds gradually simmer down from west to east into Sunday night. This builds significant waves of 3-7 ft over the southeastern waters this weekend. Probabilities for gales to 35 kts are only between 15-30%, highest south of Stannard Rock and along the Marquette/Alger County shores Sunday afternoon. Wind gusts to 20kts linger over the eastern half of the lake Monday, then winds stay below 20kts Tuesday before the next system brings back winds up to 20-25 kts Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Northern Bay of Green Bay and northern Lake Michigan - NW wind gusts to 20-25kts become common this afternoon, persisting through Sunday. Winds fall back below 20 kts Sunday night, remaining below 20 kts through much of next week. Scattered showers and storms continue the rest of this afternoon, tapering off this evening. Dry weather then persists until midweek next week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for MIZ005-006. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LC AVIATION...NL MARINE...LC  489 FXUS64 KBMX 230532 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1231 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026 - Heat: Minor to moderate heat risk will continue through the upcoming week. Heat indices are forecast to remain below 105 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1206 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026 There are a few lingering showers on the radar from earlier storms albeit decreasing in coverage after an evening of storms and gusty winds across the northwest third of the area ahead of a surface boundary. This boundary is expected to progress southward tonight into early Sunday before stalling across the southern third of Alabama. It is expected to meander in that area through the short term through early Tuesday. In the upper levels, a low is present over Ontario and Quebec and southward into the Great Lakes and much of Eastern Conus. At the same time, there is also a large ridge over New Mexico. This leaves Central Alabama in an at times active northwest flow regime. Look for isolated to scattered waves of convection at times through Monday. On Tuesday, the surface boundary is expected to meander back northward before fizzling out on Wednesday. However, the northwest flow will assist in another front making it into the area in the Thursday/Friday time frame. This will keep unsettled conditions along with scattered slightly higher storm chances in through the latter part of the forecast as moisture increases. Through the 7 day forecast, a few upper lows rotate through the current trough area over Eastern Canada and the Great Lakes with varying degrees of southward progression into Eastern Conus, but overall some degree of troughing remains. Our Southwest US ridge remains as well. The only difference will be a progression of surface boundaries. While the lower dew points have been nice. Look for those to rise through the week. However, overall temperatures should be a tad lower with the increased rain chances and progression of the boundaries and enough to keep chances low for needing a heat advisory over the next week if guidance continues this trend. With that said, it is August in Alabama and still hot, just not as hot as the past couple of weeks. 08 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Afternoon convection is on its last leg, with lingering SHRA at EET and BHM through 23/07z. Once this rain is gone, VFR conditions are expected through 23/21z. However, showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage past this time, with MGM and AUO carrying PROB30 groups for TSRA past 24/01z. Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage, and AMD LTD TO CLD AND WIND for EET due to a visibility sensor outage. /44/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air filtering into the area will result in a decrease in relative humidity (35 to 45%) for most locations on Sunday. However, wind speeds are expected to remain light, which should negate any significant fire weather concerns. Moisture gradually begins to return on Monday and into the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 93 66 90 65 / 20 0 10 10 Anniston 91 66 89 66 / 20 10 20 10 Birmingham 92 70 90 69 / 20 10 20 10 Tuscaloosa 96 72 93 71 / 20 10 20 20 Calera 93 70 90 68 / 20 10 20 10 Auburn 91 71 88 72 / 30 20 30 10 Montgomery 97 73 93 72 / 30 20 40 10 Troy 96 71 93 69 / 30 20 40 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION.../44/  482 FXUS64 KLZK 230532 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 -Relatively cooler temperatures will be seen from Sunday through much of the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The continued trend of northwesterly flow aloft over Arkansas will remain. An upper lvl shortwave progged to move over the state will allow a weak front to drop down into Arkansas by early afternoon and track southward across the state. The airmass ahead of this advancing weak cold front will be hot and humid with plenty of CAPE allowing for the expected development of scattered thunderstorms across the state between early this afternoon into late this evening. The Storm Prediction Center has designated the entire state of Arkansas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather today with the main hazards possible as damaging wind gusts and a few instances of large hail with any storm that does manage to become severe. Before the anticipated arrival of the weak cold front and associated scattered convection, high temperatures are expected to reach or exceed 100 degrees across most of central and southern Arkansas. A challenging high temperature forecast for today as locations across the state, especially in central and southern Arkansas will likely experience compression heating just ahead of the advancing front where temperatures will quickly, but briefly rise a few degrees before the frontal boundary overtakes a location. For this reason and overall trends during this heatwave have trended toward NBM 75% and NBM 90% values. For the remainder of the forecast period, from Sunday through the upcoming workweek, expect hot temperatures to persist with a few days of relief possible which would lower temperatures a tad to normal values for this time of the year as multiple weak frontal boundaries are anticipated to move across the state which will promote appreciable POP chances (expected on Monday) and modest POP chances (on Wednesday into Wednesday Night). && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Expect VFR conditions over the forecast period across all TAF sites between early Sunday morning and early Monday morning. At the beginning of the period -TSRA will be exiting the state of Arkansas and moving into Mississippi. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 94 70 90 72 / 0 30 60 20 Camden AR 99 73 96 75 / 0 20 30 0 Harrison AR 89 68 89 70 / 10 60 50 0 Hot Springs AR 97 73 95 75 / 0 30 40 0 Little Rock AR 96 73 93 75 / 0 40 50 10 Monticello AR 98 74 93 75 / 10 10 50 20 Mount Ida AR 96 71 96 73 / 0 30 40 0 Mountain Home AR 90 68 87 70 / 0 40 50 0 Newport AR 93 71 89 72 / 0 30 60 20 Pine Bluff AR 95 72 91 73 / 0 30 50 10 Russellville AR 94 72 94 72 / 0 40 50 0 Searcy AR 94 70 90 71 / 0 30 60 10 Stuttgart AR 95 73 91 74 / 0 20 60 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...74  544 FXUS64 KTSA 230533 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1233 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Temperatures above normal with continued periods of high heat stress will continue through week. The possible exception being around active thunderstorm activity. - Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected through Monday, bringing areas of locally heavy rain and strong gusty winds, but most areas will see only minimal rainfall. - Areas of localized fire weather concerns will persist. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Sunday) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Much of the current night looks to be on the calmer side compared to the last couple of nights, with any overnight shower/storm development confined to parts of southeast Oklahoma in the vicinity of weak low level warm advection. Given the expected lack of much in the way of overnight storm development and corresponding residual cloud cover during the day, warmer conditions are likely on deck for a good chunk of the area compared to Saturday. That being said, some potential for an afternoon increase in cloud cover across parts of northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas, along with low shower/storm chances, will exist, creating a gradient in high temperatures across the area. The NBM high temperatures capture expectations well and will be left alone. Dew point trends are low confidence at this point, with a pocket of higher /mid 70s/ values expected to set up across a portion of east central into northeast Oklahoma and lower values on either side. An initial starting point of the short-term blended guidance through mid morning with a transition to the NBM guidance looks good for the moment. Highest confidence in the aforementioned temperatures and dew points to reach heat advisory criteria heat indices is roughly along and south of I-40, with moderate confidence as far north as Creek/Tulsa/southern Rogers counties. A Heat Advisory will be issued for this portion of eastern Oklahoma as well as the Arkansas River Valley areas in west central Arkansas. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Sunday night into early Monday continues to appear more active than the current night. Low shower and thunderstorm chances will hang on during the evening hours across parts of far northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas, but much greater coverage remains likely after midnight into the daylight hours Monday morning. A disturbance will move through the area on the eastern periphery of the upper level high centered to the west, with development beginning across parts of northeast Oklahoma before extending southeastward across Arkansas before dawn Monday. Some of the recent CAMs keep isolated to shower potential farther west in the area into Monday afternoon. Will not adjust the NBM POPs for this just yet but the trend will need to be monitored and potentially adjusted for. Assuming this westward and delayed trend does not occur, high temperatures across southeast Oklahoma will push 105 in some locations Monday afternoon. A front will move through the area during the day Tuesday, with its progression determining where the hotter temperatures setup and how cool northern parts of the area get. With current expectations, areas south of I-40 will again push 105, with highs across the northern half of the area /only/ in the mid and upper 90s. Heat headlines will be needed in parts of the area both Monday and Tuesday. From mid to late in the upcoming week, the basic weather pattern remains similar, with the upper level ridge centered to the west leading to periods of low shower and thunderstorm chances for some and a corresponding brief period of coolertemperatures. Temperatures on average should be above normal, save for the lucky locations and days with rain and residual cloud cover during the day. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Shower and thunderstorm chances are too low to mention, with the better chances coming just beyond the range of this forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 96 76 99 75 / 10 50 10 0 FSM 99 76 98 74 / 10 30 30 10 MLC 102 79 105 77 / 0 10 10 0 BVO 94 70 97 69 / 20 50 10 0 FYV 95 71 92 71 / 20 50 40 0 BYV 91 69 88 70 / 20 60 40 0 MKO 97 76 100 73 / 10 40 10 0 MIO 92 70 93 71 / 20 60 30 0 F10 99 76 103 74 / 0 20 10 0 HHW 100 78 103 78 / 0 0 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-060-061-064>067-070-071-073>075-176-272. AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...05  530 FXUS66 KMFR 230533 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1033 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ..Updated the Aviation Section... AVIATION...23/06Z TAFs...A mix of IFR and MVFR marine stratus over the Oregon coast and into the lower Umpqua Valley will persist into Sunday morning, with areas of drizzle likely. A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings is also likely to return to the Umpqua Valley after 08Z, and persist until around 18Z on Sunday morning. Improvement to VFR is expected to be extensive during Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening. LIFR is expected to develop at the immediate coast, Coquille Valley, and lower Umpqua Valley after 04Z Sunday evening. Otherwise, inland areas will remain VFR through the TAF period, with mostly clear skies. Winds will increase again Sunday afternoon, but will be weaker than in recent days with gusts mainly at 10 to 15 kt. && .MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Saturday, August 22, 2026...Southerly winds will shift to the north and increase Sunday morning as a thermal trough develops along the coast. Gusty north winds and steep wind-driven seas will persist through Monday morning. The main belt of stronger winds will push into the outer waters Monday afternoon and evening, with a southerly surge of wind and fog along the inner waters Monday night into Tuesday. Generally light winds and calm seas are then expected through Friday with low pressure persisting over the northeastern Pacific. && PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 236 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026/ KEY MESSAGES... * Seasonal warmth continues for most areas. * A Red Flag Warning is in place to highlight gusty winds and dry conditions in Klamath, Lake, Modoc, and eastern Siskiyou counties. * Unimpactful weather is expected through the week ahead. Temperatures peak on Monday before returning to seasonal levels near midweek. DISCUSSION...An upper trough is passing to the northeast today, which will help to keep temperatures at seasonal levels. Dry air aloft is keeping precipitation chances out of the forecast. Gusty westerly winds east of the Cascades are lining up with ongoing dry conditions to bring critical fire weather concerns this afternoon and evening. A Red Flag Warning is in place for Klamath, Lake, Modoc, and eastern Siskiyou counties to highlight these conditions. With onshore flow along the coast, marine stratus is is expected to rebuild this evening with occasional drizzle possible. With the trough moving away to the northeast through Sunday, temperatures will rise west of the Cascades. A few clouds may pass over Modoc and southern Lake counties, but nothing is expected underneath them. For the week ahead, generally dry southwest flow will bring continuing warm and dry conditions. A weak upper ridge ridge passes over the area on Monday, bringing temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal for most areas. The Rogue and Klamath River valleys look to be the warmest areas, with highs approaching or reaching 100 degrees. A passing shortwave may bring very slight thunderstorm chances (5-10%) to southeastern Modoc and Lake counties. Temperatures cool slightly on Tuesday as the weak ridge moves eastward. For midweek, an approaching trough looks to pass to the north, which will help to bring temperatures to seasonal norms by Thursday. Elevated winds are possible in the afternoon and evening of Wednesday and Thursday, but current models have trended down from previous runs which reduces of critical fire weather conditions. These winds will be worth watching as the middle of the week approaches. There's some minor divergence for Friday and beyond, generally limited to whether flow aloft will be zonal or southwesterly. Overall, long-term imagery and ensembles indicate unimpactful weather continues throughthe end of August. -TAD FIRE WEATHER...Updated 230 PM PDT Saturday, August 22, 2026...An upper level trough and associated dry cold front will pass through the region today, bringing a period of increased winds and critical fire weather conditions. Model guidance shows 700 mb winds, a good proxy for maximum gusts east of the Cascades, will peak at about 40 mph ahead of the front early this afternoon, then diminish through the evening. To the west of the Cascades, particularly in the Rogue and Shasta valleys, gusty northwest winds will peak this afternoon behind the front, gusting to around 20 mph. The deciding factor for potential critical fire weather today will hinge on humidity. Minimum RH west of the Cascades will be too high, so even though winds will be gusty and may approach critical values, conditions should remain below levels of concern. East of the Cascades, however, daytime minimum humidity will trend lower today than yesterday, dropping into the teens or even single digit percentages. Thus, another day of critical fire weather conditions is expected there. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for areas east of the Cascades this afternoon, for FWZs 284/285/624/625. More typical summer conditions return Sunday and persist into early next week. There are some signals for thunderstorm chances across far eastern 285/625, namely the Warner and Hart mountains, on Monday, but much will depend on how far west the Four Corners High retrogrades behind this trough passage. Otherwise, another trough drops southward from the Gulf of Alaska and lingers off the BC coast through early next week. There will likely be additional shortwaves/troughs to swing through the region early next week, bringing periods of enhanced winds. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ370-376. && $$  561 FXUS63 KGID 230534 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1234 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions this afternoon continue on into this evening, before chances for showers and storms ramp back up from west- to-east...mainly after midnight into Sunday morning. Severe weather is not anticipated. - Precipitation and cloud cover look to linger longer into the day on Sunday, especially across the eastern half of the forecast area. This impacts forecast highs, which range from the mid 70s east to mid 80s west. Another disturbance brings additional storm chances Sunday night, mainly focused across NNE portions of the area. Again severe weather is not anticipated. - The new work week sounds a lot like the previous one...with periodic upper level shortwave disturbances working through the continued northwesterly flow across the region. This will keep precipitation chances in the forecast each day...remaining mainly focused in the evening/overnight hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Currently... The day started out on the wet side for a good chunk of the forecast area...as yet another upper level shortwave disturbance (aided by increased lower-level convergence) made its way across the region...with a couple spots producing wind gusts around 60 MPH. That activity exited the area around mid- morning...leaving behind a pretty nice day with plenty of sun. Upper air and satellite data showing continued northwesterly flow in place across the Central Plains this afternoon as the pattern remains well amplified across the CONUS. The main ridge axis extends north through the Rockies from high pressure centered mainly over CO/NM...sandwiched between areas of low pressure/southward extending troughing over northern Ontario and just off the Pac NW coast. At the surface...a large area of high pressure is centered over near the ND/Canada border, with its axis extending south roughly along the MO River. This is keeping winds across the forecast area easterly, with speeds on the lighter side, around 10-15 MPH. No big surprises as far as temperatures go...with mid afternoon readings in the low-mid 80s. This evening on into Sunday... Quiet conditions this afternoon will continue on into the evening hours, before precipitation chances ramp back up later tonight. Off to our west...radar and satellite imagery showing scattered storms developing over the Rockies, as another shortwave disturbance rides around the edge of the ridge, and aided by east-southeasterly lower-level upslope flow. The main question as the late evening-overnight hours pass is how much of this activity is sustained long enough to move into our forecast area. Kept the forecast dry through 06Z...and some of the hi-res models suggest it'd be even later than that by a few hours before activity creeps into our western edge. Aided by lift along an increased, but not overly strong, SSErly low level jet...models are in pretty good agreement showing at least scattered activity making it into the forecast area. The timing may end up not too different than last night with the onset being around 09Z...but models suggest that activity lingers around the area longer, potentially not until early-mid afternoon before sliding off to our east. This activity is not expected to be severe...models still showing that while deeper layer shear isn't bad (30-35ish kts), the main axis of better instability focused just off to our west...so the SPC Day 1 outlook areas remain both west and south of the area. Once the activity pushes east, the rest of the day Sunday is dry, but will likely see more cloud cover linger longer into the day...especially across the eastern half of the area. This would impact high potential for the day...forecast currently has mid 70s in the east to mid 80s in the west (where more sun is possible). Between the sfc high shifting more to our east and low pressure deepening over the High Plains...winds are expected to turn more southerly for Sunday...with the potential for gusts near 20 MPH across areas mainly west of HWY 281. Later Sunday night into the overnight hours...little overall change in the upper level pattern means there will the potential for yet another shortwave disturbance to bring additional storm chances to the area. Main difference during this period is that models still suggesting this disturbance tracks a bit further north (as does better convergence along the LLJ)...and along with warmer mid-level temps the further SW you go, result in these chances more of a glancing shot, focused across the NNErn third or so of the forecast area. Severe weather chances remain low through Sunday night- early Mon AM. Monday and on... Outside of any lingering activity early in the morning, the daytime and at least early evening hours on Monday remain dry. Models showing little movement in the location of the main upper level area high of high pressure and northward extending ridging into the Rockies...but do show that area of low pressure currently off the Pac NW pushing further inland...sliding through the southern half of Saskatchewan during the daytime hours. Precipitation chances do return to the forecast late Monday night-Tuesday AM...but remain low (20-30 percent) as models vary with how much (if any?) activity impacts the forecast area, with the better upper level forcing well to our NW. Later Tuesday (more the evening/overnight hours) may bring better thunderstorm chances to the area...as that main upper low is working its way more into MN, with the trough axis draped further SW into the region. Storms may initially focus along an accompanying sfc frontal boundary (though it's not a strong one)...later aided by an increasing LLJ. Still plenty of uncertainty and details to iron out...as being this far south of the main upper low doesn't do the precip coverage any favors, and with the sfc front and LLJ potentially not overly strong, there are difference with just much activity there ends up being. The rest of the week continues to sound like a broken record...upper level pattern remaining northwesterly (potentially more zonal next weekend), with periodic shortwave disturbances bringing additional precipitation chances (mainly focused in the evening/overnight hours). As far as temperatures go for the new work week...not any significant changes, and not expecting any notable swings. Forecast highs remain mainly in the 80s, with some 90s working into WSWrn areas. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Currently, a layer of high stratus clouds have drifted in from the west, associated with dying rain showers. However, early Sunday morning, a cluster of showers/thunderstorms are expected to move in from the west. Recent model guidance has slowed down the arrival of these storms, hence the slightly elongated PROB30 window from the last TAF forecast. Additionally, model guidance has continued to show lingering showers/thunderstorms behind the initial cluster, mainly impacting KGRI. This could result in thunderstorm chances lingering into afternoon more than currently laid out in this TAF. However, confidence in the thunderstorm window is not overly high. Following the shower/thunderstorm chances this morning/afternoon, the late afternoon and evening hours appear to be mostly dry and VFR. Skies will gradually clear as the thunderstorms continue to move eastward. Surface winds will be SE around 8-12kt, with gusts up to 20-22kt possible in the afternoon. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...Scott  567 FXUS63 KLMK 230534 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 134 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry and pleasant conditions are expected for Sunday through Tuesday. * Warmer temperatures (mid to upper 80s) and low rain chances return by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 146 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Conditions are dry and partly to mostly sunny this afternoon. A weak cold front has pushed into portions of northern and western KY early this afternoon. A mid and upper level shortwave trough is digging southeast over the Great Lakes, placing the Lower OH Valley in the exit region of a 45-50 kt northwesterly 500 mb jet over the Midwest. Low-level moisture continues to pool ahead of the cold front, with sfc dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. There is some drier air aloft, which will limit convective coverage this afternoon (peak PW axis of 1.4-1.5 inches in a relatively narrow corridor). The lowest levels continue to gradually warm and destabilize, with sfc temperatures in the low to mid 80s. MLCAPE is forecast to reach 2000-2500 J/kg across central KY, along and south of the frontal boundary. We are now seeing the beginnings of very isolated convective initiation across SW Ohio and eastern KY this afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered convection should fill in further SW along the cold front through mid-afternoon. Our highest PoPs (30-50% chance) remain focused over the Bluegrass Region, with the 30% contour stretching as far southwest as Bowling Green. Expect little, if any, convection west of I-65, however. The stronger mid-level flow streaming in from the NW will help boost deep-layer shear to 25-30 kts this afternoon. This would be enough for a loosely organized muticell cluster or two, again most likely in the Bluegrass Region. While strong to severe storms should be fairly sparse, the strongest cells will be capable of marginally severe hail and wind. The main time frame for isolated to widely scattered storms is 2-7 PM EDT. The cold front pushes well southeast of the area tonight. High pressure at the surface builds southeast over the Midwest through Sunday. The arrival of cooler, drier air from the northwest will make for a very pleasant end to the weekend. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 60s early Sunday morning. Sunday looks partly sunny, with a building SCT cumulus field during the afternoon. Expect afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. Early Monday morning, temperatures are forecast to dip into the 55-60 degree range. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 146 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Mainly dry conditions continue into early next week. Monday looks like a beautiful day, with relatively low humidity and afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. A weak mid-level shortwave trough zipping through NW flow will move over the region late Monday. However, a sfc warm front is forecast to set up to our southwest and keep higher rain chances focused across portions of MO, AR, and TN. Highs on Tuesday should reach the mid 80s. The latest model guidance pushes a warm front a little further north into central KY by Wednesday. With the development of broad upper level troughing, this could be enough for isolated to scattered showers and storms Wednesday afternoon and evening. An upper level trough continues to amplify in tandem with a sfc low across the Great Lakes heading into Thursday. This system should drag a cold front through the region on Thursday, bringing at least a small chance (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid and upper 80s will be common Wednesday through the end of the forecast period. A few of our warmer spots may touch 90 on Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the cold front. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 134 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A small area of mid level clouds is currently pushing southeast through the region. Winds will remain calm to light through the early morning. Brief fog will be possible this morning, mainly at RGA and HNB. Northwest winds will pick up by mid morning around 6kts and then gust up to 19kts in the afternoon. A Cu field is likely in the afternoon. Conditions will remain VFR through this forecast period. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EBW LONG TERM...EBW AVIATION...SRW  639 FXUS61 KBOX 230536 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 136 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Spotty light showers/drizzle tonight but much of the time it will be dry. More humid Sun with a few showers & t-storms possible especially near & west of the CT River Valley where an isolated strong-severe t-storm or two is possible. - Drier with a return to seasonable temperatures next week. Rain chances return Thursday/Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Spotty light showers/drizzle tonight but much of the time it will be dry. More humid Sun with a few showers & t-storms possible especially near & west of the CT River Valley where an isolated strong-severe t-storm or two is possible. Weak offshore low pressure will continue to result in moist/light NE low level flow into tonight. The result will be rather cloudy skies tonight with just some spotty light showers/drizzle at times...but this activity will be quite light with much of the time featuring dry weather. Some shortwave energy may allow for a few elevated heavier showers and perhaps a couple t-storms to develop near the southeast New England coast toward daybreak...mainly near the Cape and Islands. Some of the earlier model guidance has this activity further west...but latest indicating that the main risk for this will be towards the Cape and Islands closer to the shortwave energy. Overnight low temps will only drop into the lower to middle 60s given clouds and an abundance of low level moisture. Areas of fog will be possible too...especially near the coast and in the Worcester Hills. Again...we will need to watch for a few showers and isolated t- storms near the Cape and Islands early Sun morning. Otherwise...the main concern for a few showers and thunderstorms will be Sun afternoon/early evening given diurnal instability and shortwave energy to our west. The bulk of the height falls/forcing will be to our west. Therefore...greatest risk for a few showers and thunderstorms will be near and west of the CT River Valley Sun afternoon/early evening. Instability will be limited by a lot of cloud cover...but effective shear of 40+ knots will result in the low risk for an isolated strong to severe severe thunderstorm or two. Main severe weather risk would be a very localized damaging wind gusts and brief torrential rainfall. Greatest risk for this would near and west of the CT River Valley. That being said...much of the day will feature dry weather...but with a bit more humidity compared to this afternoon. Highs will be in the 70s to near 80. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier with a return to seasonable temperatures next week. Rain chances return Thursday/Friday. A post-frontal air mass will usher in drier conditions and warmer temperatures with westerly winds Monday. As skies gradually clear from the dreary weekend, dewpoints will begin to drop slightly... into the upper 50s as opposed to the low to mid 60s we've been seeing. High pressure begins to slowly build Tuesday into Wednesday, prolonging the clear skies, drier weather, and warmer temperatures through the middle of the week. Chances for rain showers return Thursday and Friday as a low pressure system develops over the Great Lakes and meanders east through southern Ontario. Some uncertainty regarding the onset of the showers as there's little consistency in the global ensembles on the actual placement of the low as it tracks through Canada. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update... Through 12z...Moderate confidence. IFR to LIFR conditions have continued to overspread the region. This will persist into the morning hours. Some spotty showers/light drizzle along with patchy fog have all been observed and can be expected to continue through the rest of the early morning hours. Some heavier showers remain possible towards the Cape and Islands towards sunrise. Not much confidence in these turning into scattered TSRA there, though. Light to calm NE winds. Sunday and Sunday night...Moderate confidence. IFR with localized LIFR this morning. This should improve to MVFR during the day today, and improvement to VFR should occur overnight from W to E as the front pushes through southern New England. Scattered showers and t-storms are possible in the afternoon, particularly in the interior. ENE winds will shift more S towards the afternoon and evening hours, continuing through the night. Winds should remain mostly light, topping out at around 10 kt towards the Cape and Islands, though gusts to 15 kt there are not out of the question. Skies clear heading into Monday morning. Monday...High confidence. Post-front, skies clear and VFR conditions return. Breezy SW winds sustained around 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Some uncertainty regarding showers in the afternoon. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Given scattered nature of possible TSRA towards BDL in the afternoon, maintained in TAF as PROB30. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight through Sunday night...High confidence. A wave of low pressure across the waters will be lifting into the Canadian Maritimes tonight. The pressure gradient though will remain weak enough to keep winds/seas below small craft advisory thresholds through Sunday night. Areas of fog will reduce visibilities for mariners at times especially later tonight into Sun morning. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Frank/McMinn AVIATION...Hrencecin MARINE...Frank/McMinn  614 FXUS61 KCLE 230535 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...06z TAF Aviation Forecast Update... .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe weather threat and flash flooding threat has subsided as storms move off to the east. The Severe Thunderstorm and Flood Watches have be canceled. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Below average temperatures arrive to end the weekend and start the upcoming week. Periodic lake-enhanced rain showers will primarily impact portions of Northeast OH and Northwest PA late tonight through at least Monday night, with a few showers or storms elsewhere Sunday afternoon/evening. 2 A period of dry and quiet weather is expected the first half of the week. Scattered showers thunderstorms return Wednesday night into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... After pulling a cold front across the area this evening, the surface low and upper trough across the central/eastern Great Lakes will continue to deepen through Sunday while beginning to stack, cut-off, and slow. The system will then start to slowly fill/weaken Sunday night and Monday while drifting to the east- northeast across southeastern Canada and New England. The seasonably chilly airmass pulled in behind the cold front and lingering moist cyclonic flow behind the stacking surface low/ upper trough will give us an early taste of fall to end the weekend and start the week...including some lake-enhanced rain. 850mb temperatures will bottom out at 6-9C Sunday night into early Monday, with 700mb temperatures dipping a bit below 0C as 500mb temperatures fall to around -20C. Most of the area will dry out late this evening into the overnight as the cold front exits, though as cooler west- northwest flow aligns over the ~25C lake waters some lake- enhanced showers will begin developing and moving into Northeast OH/Northwest PA. A vort max and low-level trough axis will cross the region very late tonight into early Sunday, likely causing activity to peak in organization. While some lake effect showers will continue on Sunday across Northeast OH/Northwest PA, the activity will likely lose organization and intensity for several hours after the morning trough passage. Another potent vort max and low-level trough axis will drop in from the northwest late Sunday afternoon and evening, bringing another uptick in lake-enhanced shower activity over and east-southeast of Lake Erie from as far west as the Islands and Sandusky points east. There will also be an uptick in showers across the rest of the area with the trough passage late Sunday afternoon and evening. Chilly, cyclonic west-northwest flow continues through at least Monday night or early Tuesday and some lake effect/ enhanced shower activity remains likely. However, there will likely be a trend for activity to become less intense/organized later Sunday night and beyond as high pressure builds in. A possible exception is Monday night when another vort max and trough passage is hinted at. That could cause one last uptick in the lake-driven showers, especially farther east. In terms of any hazards, instability will be deep enough over the lake for some thunder/lightning potential with the lake- enhanced activity...especially through the first half of Sunday night. The overall set-up with a somewhat shorter west-northwest fetch and some wind shifts through the event isn't overly favorable for intense, banded rainfall with a flash flood risk across the snowbelt. However, rain amounts will gradually add up (especially through Sunday evening) where lake-enhanced showers are most frequent and the potential for localized flooding will need to be kept in mind, especially if parts of Northeast OH or Northwest PA see locally heavy rain today. The heaviest rain amounts will likely occur slightly inland from the lakeshore form the Cleveland area points east-northeast. Otherwise, with cold air aloft and stronger winds towards and above 500mb, any thunderstorms with the trough passage late Sunday afternoon/ evening may produce gusty winds and/or small hail...especially over and downwind of Lake Erie. KEY MESSAGE 2.. Locations outside of any lake enhanced rain showers are expected to dry out Sunday night and remain dry into the first half of the week. Lake enhanced rain will gradually dwindle starting late Sunday night and eventually end by Tuesday as discussed above. Overall, this will lend to a tranquil first half of the week across much of the area. Temperatures will slowly rebound towards normal starting on Tuesday. Another trough is expected to dig into the Great Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday. This will likely be accompanied by another surface low and its associated fronts. Chances for showers and some storms may arrive as early as Wednesday afternoon/evening, but are most favored on Thursday with this system. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... The main weather message for aviation over the next 24 hours will be impacts from lake effect clouds and lake enhanced showers with isolated thunder possible for NEOH and NWPA. Clouds will increase and ceilings will lower between 3500 and 5000 feet downwind of Lake Erie later this morning for CLE, YNG, CAK, and ERI. Scattered rain showers with isolated thunder possible will come off Lake Erie into NEOH and NWPA starting later this morning. This cloudy and showery weather will continue off and on through tonight for the sites just mentioned. There is general mention of -shra 6sm for most the TAF time period. We did try to highlight the time window of MVFR ceilings and visibility reductions of 3sm to 5sm for the showers later this afternoon into this evening as well as a mention of VCTS. Outside of the favored lake effect impacts to aviation, NWOH will see mostly VFR conditions and ceilings. Winds will be westerly to west- northwesterly increasing 10 to 15 knots later this morning through the evening with gusts up to 20 or 25 knots possible, especially closer to the lakeshore. The gusty winds will relax to 10 knots or less by late evening. Outlook...Non-VFR conditions will be likely through Monday afternoon with lake effect clouds and lake enhanced rain showers with isolated thunder possible for areas downwind of Lake Erie in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. VFR conditions will return Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure builds across the region. && .MARINE... Rough marine conditions are expected on Lake Erie today through Monday with gusty northwest winds and higher waves as well as the risk for rip currents along the beaches/lakeshore. West to Northwest winds will be between 15 and 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots today through Monday afternoon. Waves will increase 3 to 8 feet today through Monday. Waterspouts will be very possible on Lake Erie today through Monday as well. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazard Statements for rip currents have been issued through Monday afternoon and evening. High pressure will slowly build in Monday night into Tuesday with conditions on Lake Erie improving. By Tuesday, winds will be westerly to southwesterly 5 to 15 knots and waves decreasing to 1 to 2 feet. The southerly winds will linger into Wednesday 5 to 12 knots and waves of 1 to 2 feet as well. The next weather system to possibly impact marine weather will be a cold front moving through the Great Lakes region by Thursday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday afternoon for OHZ009- 010. Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for OHZ011-012- 089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LEZ144-145. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for LEZ146>149. && $$ DISCUSSION...Saunders/Sullivan AVIATION...77 MARINE...77  678 FXUS62 KMHX 230536 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 136 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant forecast changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Localized severe threat for coastal areas Sun afternoon. Drier inland and northern areas. 2) A thunderstorm risk, some potentially severe, for Mon afternoon for coastal areas again. 3) Perhaps some drier weather for Tue, but then more unsettled pattern may return for mid to late week with sct afternoon showers/storms. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Another mid-level shortwave will lift northeastward through the SE and Mid Atlantic on Sunday. With a seabreeze pinned east of Hwy 17, these two features will act in tandem to produce sct thunderstorms Sun afternoon into the evening. Some of these storms may be strong to marginally svr, as 2,600+ J/KG of CAPE and 25-30+ kt of shear will be in place. Have inc pops near the coast to 40-60%, while interior zones are in the 10-20% range. Best chance of svr storms will be east of Hwy 17 stretching from around Richlands to New Bern to Engelhard. With recent heavy rains, a localized flood threat may materialize, as PW's are still in the 90th or higher percentile range. KEY MESSAGE 2...Similar setup for Mon, as area is on east side of broad level troughing with yet more shortwave energy swinging through and front hung up near the coast interacting with afternoon seabreeze. EFI for CAPE/Shear is around the 80th percentile, suggesting a severe risk if storms can develop and organize. Best chances again for eastern zones. KEY MESSAGE 3...An anomalously strong upper level trough is forecast to translate east and finally move offshore by Tue but then dampen with return of sswrly flow and moisture off the GOM. This will bring more unsettled wx back to ENC in the form of showers and storms with pops back into the 40-60% range, peaking in the afternoon to early evening. Temps will be back to slightly above climo, esp for the overnight periods as warm/humid airmass will be in place. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecast confidence is moderate to high over the next 24 hours. A somewhat drier airmass is beginning to advect into the eastern Carolinas this evening, and it now appears that this will have a limiting effect on stratus and reduced VIS overnight. In light of this, the TAFs have been adjusted to show a more optimistic scenario. There may still be some brief reductions to IFR/MVFR VIS at times, but the risk of longer- lasting IFR, or lower, conditions appears to be decreasing. On Sunday, a cold front will move into the area and then stall. Guidance is in good agreement with the front stalling along the coast, which should keep the TSRA risk just east of the TAF sites. It may be close for KOAJ and KEWN, but given the reduced risk, the PROB30s have been removed from both sites for now. Outlook: A front will remain stalled along the coast of the Carolinas through at least Tuesday. The front may get pulled west a bit on Monday and Tuesday as a couple of lows ride north along it. This would up the TSRA risk some, especially from KOAJ to KEWN. A risk of sub-VFR conditions would accompany any TSRA risk as well. && .MARINE... Ocnl tsra will ride up over the Gulf Stream tonight, producing locally strong winds and frequent lightning. Otherwise, swrly winds remain in the 5-15 kt range with seas of 2-4 ft through Sunday. Outlook (Sun night through Thu): Cont wrly to swrly winds expected through next week, but speeds will cont in the 5-15 kt range through next week with seas no higher than 2-3 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TL AVIATION...RM MARINE...TL  779 FXUS61 KPHI 230539 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 139 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Aviation section for the 06Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Cold front passes through the region Sunday morning with conditions improving for Sunday afternoon. 2. Fair weather is expected to return later Sunday and should persist into the middle of the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold front passes through the region Sunday morning with conditions improving for Sunday afternoon. A weak disturbance across Delmarva will continue to move offshore into the evening. Scattered showers have accompanied it so far. A rumble of thunder across far south Delaware is possible however. A low pressure system along with a negatively tilted H5 trough across the Great Lakes attm will move E-NE towards southern Canada by Sunday. An associated cold front will move across the Middle Atlantic region Sunday morning and then offshore by early afternoon. While the front will be crossing through at a time when heating will be at a minimum, we still have some good dynamics and a humid airmass in place. Accordingly, we expect showers to increase over the area later tonight and persist until FROPA on Sunday. Pops are Likely/Categorical for the Wester/Northern counties and Chance for areas South/East. The threat for Excessive Rainfall seems to overall be rather low with ample storm motion expected to keep the soakers from stalling across one area. Most areas will see one-quarter to one-half inch of rain with a few isolated spots perhaps getting around an inch. The higher totals will likely be across the Southern Poconos and North NJ. Severe weather remains possible and with CAPE values increasing overnight and peaking before FROPA Sunday, we could see some instances of Severe weather, Again, the favored areas will be North/Northwest where the SPC has kept the MARGINAL tag for the updated Day2 Outlook. Damaging winds are the primary threat for early Sunday. The front passes across the area Sunday morning while the best dynamics exit to the Northeast. Rains and thunder will end from West to East during the morning and fair weather should push in for the afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2...Fair weather is expected to return later Sunday and should persist into the middle of the upcoming week. More zonal flow with some subtle ridging moves in for the first half of the week. At the surface, high pressure will mainly be in control, resulting in dry and tranquil weather through Wednesday. Temperatures should be seasonable through this stretch. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Early this morning...MVFR/IFR CIGs. SHRA with scattered TSRA Threat for TSRA diminishing. VSBY restrictions in BR developing as well. LGT/VRB winds. Moderate confidence. Today...Conds improve to VFR by 14Z from west to east. W to SW winds increase as the morning progresses, then become W to NW 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Moderate confidence. Tonight...VFR. LGT/VRB winds. High confidence. Outlook... Monday through Thursday...VFR expected most of the time. && .MARINE... Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions will remain across the waters tonight and Sunday. Seas on the ocean will mostly be 2 to 3 ft range thru the period. Winds will be East to Southeast mostly around 10 knots early tonight then turn South to Southwest late. Winds on Sunday will become West following the passage of a cold around around midday. Follwing the front, a few gusts around 20 kts possible. Scattered showers are expected this evening with more showers and a few TSTMS after midnight into Sunday morning. Winds and seas locally higher in TSTMs. Outlook... Sunday through Wednesday...No marine headlines expected. Showers continue Sunday morning, ending Sunday afternoon. Fair weather thereafter. Rip Currents... Rest of today...East to southeast winds around 10 mph with breaking waves of 2 to 3 feet and easterly swells with a period of 6 to 8 seconds will result in a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents for the Jersey Shore and a LOW risk for Delaware Beaches. On Sunday, winds shift to the southwest at 10 to 15 mph in the morning, then to the west in the afternoon. Breaking waves will be 1 to 2 feet with light southerly swells with a 6 to 8 second period. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MPS/OHara/Staarmann AVIATION...MPS/OHara/Staarmann MARINE...MPS/OHara/Staarmann  731 FXUS62 KMFL 230538 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 138 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Smoke from wildfires in the area could produce lower visibilities and unhealthy air quality over portions of the Everglades and western suburbs. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms develop again this afternoon and evening, with most of the activity developing over inland areas. An isolated marginally severe storm or two is possible. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The deep trough draped across the eastern US with low pressure centered over the Great Lakes will remain the primary synoptic feature of interest in the short term. While the axis of this trough will not reach South Florida, an upper level shortwave at the base of the trough could provide some extra forcing for ascent as it advects across the area Sunday night into Monday. However, another Saharan Air Layer (SAL) looks to advect into the area as well during this same time frame. The thickness of this SAL is expected to be much less than the previous one, but it will still impact the weather outlook through Monday. In terms of today's setup, a rinse and repeat situation from yesterday appears to be in store as low level flow remains mostly southerly with perhaps a slight southwesterly component. This will keep the focus of convection towards inland South Florida (at least to start) this afternoon before outflow boundaries interact with the sea breezes and produce some storms closer to the coastal metro areas. An isolated severe thunderstorm or two once again cannot be ruled out in the form of downburst winds that are most likely to occur with a storm formed by converging boundaries or cell mergers. Heading into Sunday night and Monday, the intrusion of the drier SAL air mass will result in both mid-level dry air presence and low- level profiles resembling an inverted-V near the surface. This results in steepened low level lapse rates and the potential for a couple of strong to severe storms to develop if an updraft or two can bust through the cap created by the dust layer. With that said, overall convective coverage is expected to be lower than without the dust since the dry air provides some inhibition to convection. The storms that do form though will have chances to become strong to severe. PWATs will still be over 1.5", so some scattered showers and storms are still likely regardless but just not as widespread as days without a SAL presence. High temperatures for today and tomorrow will continue to be in the low to mid 90s. Maximum heat index values will primarily be in the 100-105F range, but many areas will experience brief periods where indices could be up to the 105-110F range. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 For the middle to end of this coming week, surface and low level high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will begin to expand back over the region and cause winds to shift back to an easterly or east-southeast direction. This easterly to east- southeast regime will produce a pattern that is common in the summertime across South Florida with convection being driven by the sea breeze circulations and being steered towards the Gulf coast areas. At the same time, the weak SAL will dissipate by mid-week and allow for the deeper moisture to be utilized for widespread shower and thunderstorm development. Highest rain chances (60-80%) each day will be across Southwest Florida and this will last through the end of the long term period. There will be a chance for an upper levelshortwave to develop and advect across the region late in the week, which could cause convection to become widespread across the entire South Florida forecast area. However, uncertainty remains high in regards to this feature. High temperatures are projected to remain in the low to mid 90s each day. Overnight lows range from the low 70s across the interior and lake regions to the upper 70s and low 80s along the coastal metros. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR is expected to prevail for most of the period. Light winds overnight will enhance out of the southeast after 16-17Z along the east coast. TEMPOs and amendments may be needed for potential MVFR/IFR conditions later today for east coast terminals as coverage of SHRA/TSRA increases after 18-20Z. At KAPF, winds increase out of the SW in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Light to gentle west-southwest winds are expected across the Gulf waters today and into this coming week with southeasterly winds across the Atlantic. Seas will remain at 1-2 feet or less each day across all of the local waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late each day and in the late night hours over the waters, which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Wildfire activity is being monitored across the region with the latest fire developing near Krome ave and the Miami-Dade/Broward county line. Smoke from this fire is likely to mostly disperse northwards but variable winds can result in smoke dispersing multiple ways. The main impact to watch for is lowered visibilities, particularly in the late night hours as nocturnal inversions form and can trap smoke near the surface, resulting in smog. Other than ongoing activity and the drought across the region assisting in fire risk, weather conditions are generally not suitable for increasing fire development as relative humidity values remain 50-60% at minimum and winds remain on the lighter side. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 79 93 80 / 60 20 20 10 West Kendall 92 77 92 77 / 60 20 20 10 Opa-Locka 93 79 93 79 / 60 20 20 10 Homestead 92 78 92 79 / 50 20 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 92 79 91 81 / 50 20 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 93 80 93 80 / 50 20 20 10 Pembroke Pines 93 80 93 80 / 50 20 20 10 West Palm Beach 94 78 93 79 / 50 10 20 10 Boca Raton 92 79 91 80 / 50 20 20 10 Naples 92 77 92 78 / 20 10 20 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...Redman  780 FXUS63 KDVN 230539 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1239 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather expected through the weekend. - Outside of a system centered around Wednesday, mainly dry conditions are forecast to prevail until late next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 As low pressure organizes over the eastern Great Lakes region, a large area of high pressure will set up over the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley. This will lead to beautiful late summer weather locally with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, comfortable humidity, and overnight lows in the 50s! && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to continue through much of the next week with some operational models showing a transition to more zonal flow across the CONUS to end the next week. Although there are numerous disturbances moving through the flow passing near the area, the next more widespread chance (20 to 30%) for showers and storms appears to be late Tuesday night through Wednesday when a stronger shortwave moves across the region. Any rainfall amounts will be light through the middle of next week. Monday is expected to be the coolest day of the period with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. High temperatures the rest of the week are forecast to be in the lower to mid 80s. Tuesday night onward, low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 High pressure is forecast to bring quiet weather and VFR flight categories through the period. High pressure is forecast to shift overhead over the next 24 hours with winds around 5 knots through the period. Diurnally driven cumulus is forecast to develop after 15 UTC along with winds increasing to around 8 knots through the day. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Uttech LONG TERM...Cousins/Uttech AVIATION...Cousins  726 FXUS64 KBRO 230538 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1238 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1235 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Hot and rain-free conditions will continue through late next week. - Moderate (level 2 of 4) to major risk (3 of 4) of heat-related impacts through the period with peak afternoon heat indices generally between 105 to around 110 degrees. - The combination of low minimum relativity humidity values, dry fuels, and very hot temperatures could lead to the potential for rapid wildfire spread through the period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A strong 500 mb ridge will meander over southern New Mexico/western Texas and northern Mexico extending over Texas through late next week. This will continue to provide subsidence across Deep South Texas with very hot and mainly rain-free conditions through forecast period. Daily high temperatures are expected to reach the upper 90s to around 105 degrees, except near the coast. The combination of the very hot temperatures and elevated dewpoint temperatures will support heat indices generally between 105 to 110 degrees each afternoon. Heat indices may briefly reach 111+ at a few locations in the afternoon, but temperatures should remain just below Heat Advisory criteria each day. Widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) to Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk expected through the weekend and into the middle of next week. The combination of low minimum relativity humidity values, dry fuels, and very hot temperatures could lead to the potential for rapid wildfire spread through the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are forecast to continue through the period. Light southeasterly winds are forecast to continue through the morning with wind speeds increasing slightly through the afternoon. Brief wind gusts will be possible with the passage of the sea breeze Sunday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Favorable marine conditions will prevail along the lower Texas Coast through the period as high pressure continues across the Gulf. Light to occasionally moderate south to southeast winds and low seas are expected through late next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 While we're likely to fall just short of Fire Danger conditions (i.e. 15-20+ 20 foot wind), we're on the razor's edge when considering pulse gusts. Unlike earlier this week, however, the gradient does slacken enough to keep even a reasonable worst-case gust factor to 25 mph along/east of IH-69C/US-281, and 20 mph to the west. But the combination of flash drought, the potential for afternoon RH to fall into the 15-25% range west of IH-69C/US 281 (and 25-35% east of there) as well as re-cured fuels based on visuals and the above-average evaporation rates are enough to keep the wildfire prevention message front and center. Burn bans remain in effect for all but Kenedy County, and just a spark combined with even a pulse gust could quickly turn into a wildfire that could spread fairly rapidly. Since late July, there were two large wildfires with nearly 1400 acres burned in western Brooks - an area that missed out on two rain events not too far away (southwestern Brooks). The last truly beneficial rain over a decent-sized area was on August 2...and those benefits are long dried up. Continue to promote wildfire safety and prevention until further notice. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 How hot, August? Through the 21st, ranking in the top two or three all-time for most available stations. Rival years include 2023 (tops for several locations) and 2009 (tops for McAllen). 2023 remains the hottest meteorological summer (June-August) and astronomical summer (June 21 - September 21, in general)...but 2026 is hot on its heels. Given the expected temperatures to remain around 3 degrees above average through the end of August, several locations may tie or even push ahead of 2023's benchmark. Here are the current stats for August, through the 21st: Location (since) August (Rank) Record (year) Brownsville (1878) 90.0 (2) 90.5 (2023) McAllen (1941) 91.5 (2) 92.3 (2009) Harlingen (1912) 88.6 (5) 90.3 (2023) McCook (1942) 89.3 (4) 90.1 (1998) Port Mansfield (1958) 86.8 (2) 87.3 (2023) Rio Grande City (1897)* 90.3 (3) 93.0 (1901)* Weslaco (1914) 89.5 (2) 90.4 (2023) Raymondville (1913) 89.7 (1) 2026 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 99 80 98 80 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 102 76 102 76 / 0 0 10 0 MCALLEN 105 79 104 79 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 105 76 104 77 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 81 89 81 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 97 78 96 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...63 LONG TERM....63 AVIATION...60-BE  770 FXUS64 KSJT 230539 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1239 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Big Country, Heartland and Concho Valley areas this afternoon and again on Sunday afternoon. - There is a low (15%-20%) chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms, mainly across the Big Country, this afternoon and evening. - Hot and mainly dry weather will persist through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to our east, but are also winding down late tonight. Expect this trend of diminishing coverage and intensity to continue through the rest of the early morning hours. For today, we will again warm up into the 105 to 110 degree range across areas roughly north of a Mertzon to Junction line, with upper 90s to near 105 for the rest of the area. With that in mind, the Heat Advisory in these areas will continue through tomorrow evening. Although we will approach the 110+ degree mark that warrants in an Extreme Heat Warning north of I-20, we aren't expecting to quite make it there, so will just keep the Heat Advisory going. Lows will continue to be very muggy, only dropping into the mid 70s to lower 80s, and winds will be out of the south at 5 to 15 mph. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Expect hot and dry conditions across the area as a upper level ridge remains in control. Looks like will need Heat Advisories for much of next week across much of the area. Please follow heat safety precautions if you have to be outside during the afternoon hours. Highs will mainly range from the upper 90s to near 110, mainly across the Big Country, expecting to have the hottest temperatures. Also, mostly sunny skies will make it feel even hotter. There is a very low chance for a few showers and thunderstorms by the middle of next week. However, most of the area will remain dry through the long term. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours with some mid and upper level clouds, and either light and variable winds, or out of the south at 5 to 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 106 81 107 80 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 104 77 104 75 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 103 75 103 72 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 105 77 105 75 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 106 80 107 79 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 99 73 99 72 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 103 76 104 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Jones- Mason-McCulloch-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Shackelford-Sterling- Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...20  816 FXUS64 KLCH 230540 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1240 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect again today from 11 AM until 8 PM. Afternoon highs will again climb to near 100 degrees with maximum apparent temperatures ranging from 109 to 115. - Temperatures will remain above normal through Tuesday before returning nearer to normal through the second half of the week. - A few afternoon thunderstorms are expected each day, but the majority of the region will remain dry through Wednesday. Precipitation chances will increase Thursday into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 After breaking daily high temperature records Saturday afternoon at both the Lake Charles and Beaumont airports, dewpoints in the upper 70s to 80 are keeping apparent temperatures even at midnight in the mid 90s to near 100. It does make one wonder how the pre electrical world managed to subsist in the gulf south in August. Little change in the synoptic forecast pattern is expected today or Monday as a broad upper level ridge continues to dominate the south central U.S. keeping both high and low temperatures above normal even by mid August standards. No changes were made to the previously issued heat advisory which will again be in effect today from 11 AM until 8 PM. Forecast maximum heat indices are expected to range from 109-115 posing a health risk to anyone unable to find sufficient sources of cooling. Short range guidance is in good agreement on the combination of heat related instability and a developing afternoon sea breeze producing a few (20-30%) thunderstorms this afternoon and those lucky enough to find themselves underneath one will get a brief reprieve from both the heat as well as the expanding drought across the region. Any storms that develop will dissipate around sunset. Increasing mid level moisture will wrap around the eastern periphery of the ridge Monday through Wednesday offering better (30- 50%) precipitation chances for those along and east of the Atchafalaya basin. The remainder of the region will continue to broil in the Cajun sauna with heat advisories likely needed each afternoon. The persistent upper level ridge will retrograde west into the four corners region by Thursday allowing deeper upper level moisture to sink into the area along a weak boundary. This is expected to substantially increase (30-70%) precipitation chances across the region while, concordantly, dropping afternoon highs back to "only" the low to mid 90s. Jones && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light westerly winds this morning will become southwesterly this afternoon. A few afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop between 19-00Z during maximum heating as well as along an inland advancing sea breeze. Any storms that develop will dissipate by 01Z. Jones && .MARINE... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Light onshore winds will persist through the week with seas ranging from 1-2 feet. Precipitation chances return across the coastal waters Thursday into next weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A few afternoon thunderstorms will develop each day through Wednesday with the highest probabilities in and around the Atchafalaya basin. Better precipitation chances are expected area wide Thursday through next weekend. KBDI values presently range from 530 to 750 across the region and will continue climbing as drought conditions worsen over the next couple of weeks. Daily minimum relative humidity will range from 40-50% away from the immediate coastline through the middle of the week. Personal outdoor burning is strongly discouraged. Burn bans have been issued for most parishes and counties by local governments. Consult your local fire departments for more information. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243- 252>254. TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66 AVIATION...66  880 FXUS65 KFGZ 230541 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1041 PM MST Sat Aug 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Moderate monsoon conditions will continue through Monday, mainly along the higher terrain during the afternoon and evening hours. Then, as a high pressure system builds over Arizona, warmer and drier conditions are expected to develop by midweek as the flow of moisture northward into the region decreases. && .DISCUSSION...A 500 mb high pressure system located above west- central New Mexico is expected to slowly build westward by the middle of the upcoming week. In its current position, the high is supporting moderate monsoonal conditions as some moisture continues to be transported northward into northern Arizona, supporting shower and thunderstorms across and near the higher terrain during the afternoon and evening hours. Southerly steering flow will also push the developing showers and thunderstorms northward. This pattern is expected continue Monday, then as the high builds westward and over Arizona midweek this will slow the transport of monsoonal moisture and allow for drier and more stable air to develop over northern Arizona. This will lead to a decrease in the potential for showers and thunderstorms, along with allowing max daytime temperatures to climb a few decreases, especially in areas that have been experiencing increased cloud cover due to the current monsoonal pattern. && .AVIATION...Sunday 23/06Z through Monday 24/06Z...VFR conditions mostly expected, but brief MVFR conditions possible in heavier SHRA/TSRA. Isolated -SHRA overnight, mainly east of a KPGA-KPAN line. Another round of scattered SHRA/TSRA developing Sunday after 18Z and continuing through at least 03Z. Outside of gusty/erratic outflow driven winds, look for variable daytime winds 5-15 kts. OUTLOOK...Monday 24/06Z through Wednesday 26/06Z...VFR conditions mostly expected. Scattered afternoon/evening mainly high terrain SHRA/TSRA Monday, then coverage decreasing to isolated by Tuesday. Outside of gusty/erratic outflow driven winds, look for daytime winds mainly SW-W 5-15 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Expect daily chances for showers/thunderstorms, with greatest coverage across the higher terrain. Activity will ramp up around 11 AM MST each day, and continue through the evening hours. Storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, heavy rain, small hail, and frequent lightning. Outside of storm driven winds, look for variable winds generally 10 mph or less. Tuesday through Thursday...Drier conditions will gradually return, with activity becoming limited to the White Mountains Wednesday and Thursday. Daytime highs forecast to increase, reaching 8-15 degrees above normal. Look for southwest winds 5-15 mph each afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Schank AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  920 FXUS63 KLOT 230542 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1242 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous swimming conditions at unprotected beaches in Cook County and northwest Indiana today. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 It's a pleasant and quiet Saturday across the area with early afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 and diurnally-driven cumulus starting to fill in overhead. Up north, a handful of showers and a couple of thunderstorms have recently blossomed along the eastern WI lakeshore with higher coverage found farther north near the Door Peninsula and UP of Michigan. These developed as a potent vort max and digging trough axis swing across the upper Midwest. The cold advection aloft has allowed for an ample reservoir of instability to build around the region while plenty of broad forcing is around to drive scattered convection. Coverage will attempt to spread south over the next few hours and a few isolated showers/storms may attempt to go up over portions of far northeast IL and northwest IN before the end of the afternoon. A considerable amount of mid level dry air, however, should greatly limit overall coverage and make it largely difficult for cores to produce lightning. This evening, a secondary vort/backdoor cold front will drive down the windward side of the trough providing continued opportunities for showers and storms to develop over the lake during the night. The backed wind field should steer any evening/overnight activity into northwest Indiana. An isolated shower or two may even linger past daybreak into northern Porter County. In the forecast, maintained slight chances for rain and thunderstorms over and around the lake this afternoon which then focus into northwest Indiana for the evening and night. In addition to the precip potential, the added cooling aloft brought on by that secondary vort will further steepen up lapse rates over the mild lake waters such that waterspouts may develop over the lake this evening through early Sunday morning. With the trough ejecting to our east tomorrow, surface high pressure will slide into the region and bring quiet conditions to the early part of next week. Afternoon temperatures are forecast in the middle to upper 70s on Sunday and Monday and around 80 for Tuesday. A synoptic system is favored to move across the upper Midwest during the middle of the week and bring shower and storm chances to the area in the Tuesday night to Thursday window. A lot of uncertainty still revolves around this system, including if there may be any appreciable severe threat, so we'll leave it at that for now and keep an eye on model trends over the coming days. Doom && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A small patch of mid-level clouds that produced light showers in southeast WI have decreased in coverage over the past hour. This will continue to drift southeast over the next few hours into northwest Indiana. Still can't rule out a few spotty showers into northwest Indiana and have added a VCSH mention at GYY. Otherwise expect dry and VFR conditions through the period with diurnal cumulus developing around 6000 feet by mid morning. Light and variable winds early this morning will increase and settle into a prevailing NNW kt after daybreak with the occasional gust into the upper teens to around 20 kt in the afternoon. Winds then ease and become light and variable again after sunset. Petr && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Beach Hazards Statement from 4 AM CDT early this morning through this evening for ILZ103-ILZ104. IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 4 AM CDT early this morning through this evening for INZ001. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for INZ002. LM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for Wilmette Harbor to Calumet Harbor IL- Calumet Harbor to Gary IN. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Gary to Burns Harbor IN-Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  947 FXUS65 KGJT 230543 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1143 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Monsoonal moisture in place will keep scattered shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast today. - Heavier rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding over burn scars and susceptible terrain. - Temperatures near to around 5 degrees above normal are expected through early next week, followed by a gradual warmup to close to 10 degrees above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1031 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 As the Pacific Northwest trough tracks into Canada, the high centered over the Southern Plains starts to drift back toward the west. As a result, flow aloft shifts from southwesterly to more zonal Sunday, shifting the moisture plume north and east of the region. The best moisture will remain pooled along the Divide, and lingering across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado. Instability will be plentiful, provided morning cloud cover clears early enough. The one thing that will be lacking is upper level support, as the shortwave from today will be well to the east. Instead, orographic forcing will be the primary trigger for afternoon convection, with showers and storms firing off the terrain in the early afternoon. This activity will move off the terrain and over adjacent valleys through the afternoon and evening, but will likely not be as long- lasting as convection this afternoon. Heavy rain remains a concern, as surface levels remain well saturated and mixing ratios of 5-7 g/kg remain. This will keep flash flood and debris flow concerns for sensitive areas, including recent burn scars. Above normal moisture sticks around through the coming week, as the high gradually shifts back into the Desert Southwest. Forcing will be somewhat lacking, with only the occasional shortwave rotating around the periphery of the high. This means that most afternoons will see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms develop over the higher terrain, with occasional periods of more focus convection coinciding with a passing wave. So long as surface levels remain saturated, heavy rain and flash flooding will remain concerns, particularly for sensitive areas. Additionally, gusty outflow winds and lightning will be daily threats. Temperatures will start around 5 degrees above normal, but will gradually warm through the week under the influence of the high. By the end of the coming workweek, look for highs to be 5-10 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1129 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Isolated showers are diminishing across the region through the overnight with occasional lightning along the southwest faces of the southern mountains of southwestern Colorado and southeastern Utah. Expect a few lingering showers to last past 12Z. Look for convective activity to pickup again around 18Z over the higher terrain becoming scattered to widespread through 00Z when they will begin to diminish. These showers and thunderstorms are capable of producing gusty, erratic outflow winds, frequent lightning, and brief heavy rain leading to brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions. Otherwise, winds will be generally light and terrain driven, with high level clouds and VFR conditions through the TAF period. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BGB/TGJT AVIATION...DB  993 FXUS63 KFSD 230544 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1244 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and a few storms are likely early this morning in south-central South Dakota, with some lingering activity possible into the afternoon. Severe weather is not expected, but locally heavy rainfall will be possible during any afternoon storm. - The next better chance for showers and storms across a wider part of the area is tonight (50-70%). Locally heavy rain and isolated severe storms are possible. - Otherwise most days through next week will see highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 845 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 No major changes to the forecast tonight and tomorrow. Mid to high level clouds are moving into south-central South Dakota associated with our next weak wave moving in. These clouds will continue pushing east-southeastward through the night, and the aforementioned wave will help set off some showers and weak thunderstorms starting in south-central South Dakota early tomorrow morning with this activity gradually spread east- southeastward through the day on Sunday. As it moves eastward, it will outrun any appreciable instability and become just hit or miss light showers/sprinkles as it approaches I-29. Heavy rain looks to be the main threat heading into Sunday night as the low level jet kicks up and sets off more elevated thunderstorms with the aid of an upper wave moving in from the northwest. With the potential of multiple updrafts going up around the same time, there will be plenty of competition for the strongest updraft and this will help limit a severe weather risk. However, if one or two storms can go more isolated and become a more dominant updraft, then perhaps some large hail will be possible given effective shear values around 40-45 kts. Freezing levels will be quite high though, so even if an updraft can sustain itself, hailstones will have a pretty deep warm layer to go through before it were to reach the surface. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 142 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A quiet night is ahead as high pressure drifts east. Southerly flow will develop in central SD later tonight and become more established across the area through Sunday. The light winds will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 50s, especially east of I- 29. The upper level wave responsible for the low level winds turning southerly will move into central SD tomorrow morning, and eastward and southeast from there through the day. With fairly stout low to mid level dry air, mainly an increase in cloud cover is expected through the morning. The exception will be south central SD where enough moisture may allow for 500-1000 J/kg of elevated CAPE, which will support some spotty showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather is not expected. Lift will gradually increase through the day into Sunday night, when a moderately stronger LLJ focuses on the area. Given fairly weak shear and CAPE values generally under 1000 J/kg, severe weather looks unlikely. However with a freezing level around 13 kft, locally heavy rain will be possible. Not much agreement on the location of the heavier rain with the models pretty inconsistently placing the mid level wave across the area. Some hints that the LLJ will focus somewhere on the SD side, but confidence is low. This wave moves out of the area on Monday but another weaker wave moves by to the north on Monday night and brings a small increase in warm air advection, which could spark a few showers and thunderstorms. Mainly northwest flow aloft continues Tuesday into next weekend. This will bring periodic small chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the week with little agreement on exactly when. Otherwise lows should mainly be from the mid 50s to mid 60s with highs in the 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Patchy fog remains possible mainly in low lying areas and river valleys east of I-29 early this morning, though widespread issues are not expected. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms look to move into south-central South Dakota towards daybreak, with any activity weakening as it moves east-southeast through the day. A better chance of storms arrive late this evening into the Sunday night hours, mainly near and south of I-90, though this won't make it near the TAF sites until either the very end or just after this period. With that timing uncertainty, left out mention of -TSRA at KFSD and KSUX. A second area of storms to watch will be anything that could drop southward from northern South Dakota and move towards KHON. Did add a PROB30 group there for this potential since there was higher confidence this would occur more towards the end of the period as opposed to afterwards. Winds will pick up as we head into the daytime hours Sunday, turning more southeasterly and then southerly with time. Strongest winds will be in south-central South Dakota where winds may occasionally gust to 25-30 kts this afternoon. Winds will slacken somewhat this evening outside of any thunderstorms, though it will still remain breezy to close the period in south-central South Dakota where winds could gust up to 20-25 kts to end the period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Samet DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...Samet  984 FXUS65 KVEF 230543 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1043 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Above normal temperatures continue through next week. * Isolated storm chances linger into early next week, with best chances in northwestern Arizona and the southern Great Basin. && .DISCUSSION...through Friday. Hotter than normal temperatures will continue through the forecast period as a broad ridge of high pressure remains positioned over the area. High temperatures will top out around 2 to 7 degrees above normal each afternoon, with day to day variations depending on the position of the ridge, cloud cover, moisture, etc. Overnight low temperatures will run around 3 to 8 degrees warmer than normal, providing little-to-no overnight relief in the lower elevations of the Mojave Desert where temperatures will bottom out in the mid-80s to mid-90s. Given the long duration of this anomalous heat, we will see widespread Major-to-Extreme (Levels 3 and 4 of 4, respectively) HeatRisk return during the second half of the week. Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to dry things out, with precipitable water slowly decreasing across the region over the weekend. As a result, storm coverage today and tomorrow will be more isolated in nature, and will be limited to the higher terrain of the Southern Great Basin, Eastern Sierra, and the Arizona Strip where there is a 10 to 30% chance of precipitation this afternoon. Localized moderate-to-heavy rain, lightning, and erratic outflow winds will be the primary threats with any storms that develop. Ensemble guidance continues to show a relative uptick in moisture across northwestern Arizona on Monday. Currently, this slight increase in moisture is reflected in the scattered 15 to 30% rain chances in Mohave County on Monday afternoon. Drying will resume on Tuesday, continuing through the end of the week as we find ourselves under southwesterly flow aloft. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package... Expect southwesterly winds around 7kts through the night before weakening and becoming light and variable by the mid morning. Southeasterly winds arrive in the late morning with south- southwest winds arriving in the mid afternoon along with gusts around 20kt. Gusts cut off after sunset as winds turn southwesterly and reduce. Temperatures look to break 100 degrees shortly after 17z, peak at 00z, and cool below 100 shortly before 04z. Winds become light and variable into early Monday. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds are reducing for all but KDAG which stays gusty until the late night. From then, all winds look to stay light through the night and much of the morning. Gustier winds arrive in the afternoon with peak gusts above 20kts possible. Passing showers will affect the valley into the afternoon but exit in the late afternoon. Stronger gusts at KDAG arrive slightly later in the early evening and look to last into the late night while the rest of the TAF sites see gusts cut off and winds lighten. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Stessman AVIATION...Murdock For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  201 FXUS66 KHNX 230547 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1047 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Triple digit heat continues for San Joaquin Valley and Mojave Desert. 40 to 50 percent for Major Heat Risk in the Southern San Joaquin Valley early next week. 2. 10 to 20 percent probability for extreme heat in the Mojave Desert ending next week and starting September. && .DISCUSSION... High pressure over the Four Corners region has resulted in upper level flow over central California from the southwest, forcing temperatures into the upper 90s to near 100 across the lower elevations of the region. With minimal change expected to the synoptic pattern, these temperatures are likely to stick around through much of the upcoming week. Through Wednesday, there is an 80 to 90 percent probability for afternoon highs to exceed 100 degrees each day in the San Joaquin Valley. This level of heat will result in a Moderate Risk of heat-related illnesses to those sensitive to heat, such as older adults (65+), infants, athletes, outdoor workers, those without effective cooling, and those with chronic diseases; there is some risk to the general population. Meanwhile, in the Mojave Desert, there is at least a 60 to 70 percent probability for afternoon highs to exceed 105 degrees this Tuesday and Wednesday, leading to patchy areas of Major Heat Risk. A weak low pressure trough will push through the Pacific Northwest region before the weekend, slightly degrading the strength of the aforementioned high pressure. Upper level flow will shift to the west from the southwest, resulting in slightly cooler, but still above average, temperatures. However, the high will maintain most of its strength over the desert areas, with an additional 70 to 80 percent probability for highs to exceed 105 degrees. During the same period, there is a 50 to 60 percent probability for morning lows to exceed 75 degrees. The combination of these warmer highs and lows in the desert will lead to more widespread Major Heat Risk with smaller areas of Extreme Heat Risk developing. The latter of these has a 10 to 20 percent probability to occur. As has been the case for much of the latter half of the summer, the warmer temperatures will drive down the relative humidity across the region. Through most of this coming week, minRH values in the San Joaquin Valley will be between 15 and 25 percent and up to 30 percent in the Sierra Nevada; single digits will be present in the Mojave Desert. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevailing for the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public...McCoy aviation....ND weather.gov/hanford  220 FXUS62 KCAE 230548 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 148 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Drier conditions to start the week outside of isolated showers/storms; precipitation chances increase midweek. Updated 06z Aviation. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Seasonal temperatures with afternoon thunderstorm chances each day this week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonal temperatures with afternoon thunderstorm chances each day into next week. Calmer conditions are expected to settle in for Sunday as shower and thunderstorm activity shifts east toward the coastal plain. Meanwhile, drier air and some mid-level subsidence should help clear cloud cover from the Midlands and CSRA. NAEFS ensemble means suggest PWAT values falling toward the 10th percentile, generally around 1.25 inches. While a stray thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out during peak afternoon heating, particularly along the stronger moisture gradient across the southern and eastern portions of the FA, most locations should remain dry Sunday. Generally quiet conditions are expected through the first half of the week as a relatively dry air mass remains in place. Rain chances should stay low through Monday, with only isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms possible during the early part of the week. Moisture will gradually increase from mid to late week, resulting in a trend toward higher afternoon storm coverage. LREF probabilities indicate a 50-70 percent chance of PWAT values exceeding 1.75 inches from Wednesday onward. Upper- level troughing will also begin to shift into the region, supporting increasing moisture and greater chances for afternoon thunderstorms. Weak shortwaves embedded within the flow should also provide additional forcing for convection. Temperatures are expected to gradually warm as this overall pattern persists into next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Early morning fog/stratus possible with VFR conditions expected shortly after sunrise. Lingering low level moisture in place with mostly clear skies may support developing restrictions around sunrise this morning. Guidance has not been consistent run to run, however, and confidence remains somewhat limited especially with satellite observations showing high clouds moving in along with low clouds around 5kft. The overall setup does appear to support a mix of MVFR and IFR visibilities, with the highest chance for IFR at AGS and OGB. Any restrictions that do develop this morning should mix out much more quickly this morning compared to yesterday with forecast soundings indicating a very shallow layer of moisture. Isolated storms once again this afternoon and evening so have included a prob30 group for tsra for the Augusta terminals and OGB with highest confidence in thunderstorms affecting these terminals. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated storms each afternoon with higher coverage of storms expected by midweek. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ND AVIATION...96  228 FXUS66 KLOX 230549 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1049 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS...22/716 PM. Minimal changes expected through the weekend with above normal temperatures. Patchy night through morning low clouds and fog will be confined to coastal areas, mainly north of Point Conception. Additional warming is expected next week with periods of extreme heat in some areas, especially Tuesday through Friday. && .SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)...22/802 PM. ***UPDATE*** Hot to very hot conditions are expected to persist through late this coming week as a strong ridge of high pressure remains centered near the Four-corners area. The upper ridge will continue to expand over southern California from the southeast, along with weakening onshore pressure gradients. Temperatures today were similar to yesterday's highs, give or take a degree or two, in most locations. This trend is likely to continue through Sunday and Monday, before additional warming occurs Tuesday through Friday. At the same time, warm overnight lows will start the days out warm, adding to the heat discomfort. A Heat Advisory is in effect for LA and Ventura Counties except for the higher mountains of Ventura and the Antelope Valley. The Advisory also covers the Santa Barbara Mountains and Cuyama Valley, and the South Coast. The timing is from 10 AM Sunday morning through 10 AM Tuesday. Following that, there is an Extreme Heat Watch in effect for the same areas, through Friday evening. Gusty onshore winds will affect the interior passes and canyons, especially Soledad Canyon into the Antelope Valley, with gusty Sundowners across SW Santa Barbara County. Gusts in these areas will generally peak at 25 to 35 mph, although with isolated stronger gusts near Gaviota and Refugio. Otherwise, winds in most locations will be relatively light, under 20 mph. Stronger Sundowners will be possible starting Monday evening. As for low clouds, for the past couple of night to morning periods they have been limited to the southern Central Coast, of western Santa Barbara county. This trend is likely to continue, although models keep showing low clouds over coastal sections of LA County, which could verify at times. ***From Previous Discussion*** The heat is on. It looks to be a very hot week across southwest California, especially Tuesday and beyond as high pressure aloft builds in from the east onshore gradients start to relax and possibly even turn lightly offshore. Temperatures today are similar or slightly cooler than the last couple days but models are indicating weakening onshore flow this week, especially starting Tuesday while at the same time heights and thicknesses rise due to high pressure building from the heat. At that point models indicate the potential for light to locally moderate offshore flow. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with this part of the equation which is why the heat hazards turn into Extreme Heat Watches Tuesday through Friday. If gradients end up being more onshore then most areas will likely just remain under heat advisories. Current projections indicate around a 30% chance of 110 or higher in the San Fernando Valley and also a 40% chance of 100 or higher in Downtown LA. For areas north of Pt Conception, temps will be warming there as well but the hottest temps will hold off until Tue or Wed. .LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...22/219 PM. The extreme heat is expected to continue through the week peaking late in the week. As high pressure continues to build the warm air will start to push north along the Central Coast and will likely need to be issuing additional heat advisories and/or warnings for some or all of the area by Wednesday. Projections show around a 10% chance of 100 degrees in SLO Wed-Fri and a 50-70% chance of highs of 105-110 across interior SLO. In addition, hot Sundowners will be peaking Tuesday and Wednesday evenings across the Santa Ynez Range with strong gusts and temperatures in the 90s and lower 100s likely. Farther south the heat will just get worse later next week with some coastal valleys as high as 113 by Friday and a 20-40% chance of highs 100 or higher in Downtown LA and Camarillo. Some cooling expected to start next Saturday but still at least 6-12 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION...23/0542Z. At 0513Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 2100 feet with a temperature of 30 C. High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPRB, KSBA, KPMD, KWJF, KBUR, KVNY, KOXR, KCMA, & KSMO. There is a 15% chc of LIFR/IFR CIGs at KLAX, KLGB, KSBP between 23/10Z-16Z. KLAX...Fair confidence in CAVU TAF with only a 15% chance of LIFR/IFR CIGs 11Z-16Z. No significant east wind component is expected. KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF. && .MARINE...22/631 PM. Moderate to high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds (20-30 knots) across the Outer Waters at least through Monday night, most prevalent south and west of Point Sal. This may need to be extended through mid week and expanded to all waters again later in the week. SCA winds gusts are also expected across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast this afternoon and evening, then there is a moderate chance for more widespread wind gusts reaching 25 knots during the afternoon and evening hours starting Tuesday and likely continuing through the week. Gusts of 20-25 knots should reach the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel each afternoon/evening starting Monday and continuing through the week. Moderate chances of SCA level winds reaching the eastern portion of the channel by mid-week. Otherwise widespread SCA conds are not likely for the inner waters south of Point Conception. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Sunday to 10 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through Friday evening for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 AM PDT Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT Sunday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 4 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW/Ciliberti AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...Sirard/DB SYNOPSIS...MW/Ciliberti weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  328 FXUS61 KBGM 230551 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 151 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... PoPs and QPF were increased for the Monday night into Tuesday timeframe for areas along and north of the NY Thruway Corridor due to lake effect rain showers that are expected to develop. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A broad upper level low moving southeastward into the area tonight into Sunday is expected to lead to unsettled weather into early next week. 2) High pressure builds in for a brief lull in wet weather Wednesday, then additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to return Thursday into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A broad upper trough will be setting up across the eastern U.S. this weekend with an upper low dropping southeastward out of Canada and becoming a closed low over the Great Lakes on Sunday. A surface low is expected to develop over the eastern Great Lakes region as well tonight into Sunday. These features are expected to be the main drivers of our weather into early next week. Conditions have remained relatively stable this afternoon. This, combined with the lack of a forcing mechanism has allowed for the area to remain rain-free for now. Can't rule out an isolated shower later this afternoon, but otherwise most of the rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will hold off until tonight. The surface low over the eastern Great Lakes is expected to lift north-northeast, passing just north and west of the area Sunday. As it shifts north toward the Ontario/Quebec border, it will drag a surface cold front across the region Sunday. Latest trends have this cold front moving through in the morning, which keeps the greatest chance of showers and thunderstorms during that timeframe. As the winds shift to more westerly following the passage of the front, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop Sunday afternoon (greatest chance in Central NY), but coverage of these should be rather limited. By Monday, the 500mb closed low moves overhead. This combined with with cooler air aloft moving over the Great Lakes with 850mb temps falling to +6C to +10C and a west to northwest flow in place, additional lake effect/lake enhanced rain showers are expected to develop. As the upper low lifts NE Tuesday, there could be a few lingering lake effect rain showers downwind of Lake Ontario near and north of the NYS Thruway before drier conditions return. Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected this weekend before turning noticeably cooler Monday with the upper low overhead with highs in the 60s and lower 70s. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure briefly builds in Tuesday night into Wednesday with dry conditions. Then Thursday into Friday, a similar pattern to this weekend will likely set back up with a potential low moving up from the south and another upper trough pushing in from the west that would bring the chance for additional showers and thunderstorms. As of now these features appear to be more progressive and look to move out of the region by next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A line of showers, with associated CIG/VSBY restrictions will press slowly through the area from west to east during the early morning hours. This could bring occasional MVFR/MVFR Fuel Alt restrictions as it moves through. RME and BGM may see a period of IFR CIGs around daybreak ( approx 09-13z) and into the early morning hours. After the initial trough passage, more scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop late morning and into the afternoon hours. Included PROB30 groups for a chance of tsra at our NY TAF sites (mainly 16-21z today). Outside of the showers and isolated thunderstorms, CIGs are expected torise and scatter, back to generally VFR by 17/18z as some drier mid level air works into the region. VFR conditions are then expected to prevail over the area this evening into tonight, as the lake effect rain bands stay just north. southeast winds 5 to 15 kts early this morning are forecast to turn west-southwest later today and increase between 8-20 kts over the area. Winds then diminish below 10 kts heading into this evening. Outlook... Monday...Scattered showers at the Central NY terminals with associated restrictions possible. Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJG/DK AVIATION...AJG/MJM