608 FXUS62 KRAH 230600 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 200 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Nothing significant && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 200 AM Sunday... 1) Much drier air works in today and Monday behind a cold frontal passage. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out along the Coastal Plain. 2) Diurnally maximized convection returns to central NC Thursday through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 200 AM Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Much drier air works in today and Monday behind a cold frontal passage. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out along the Coastal Plain. A cold front will be pushing through most of our central NC counties this morning. The front will be slowest to push through the eastern Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Behind the front, northwest downslope flow will aid in dewpoints mixing out and RH levels becoming much more comfortable for late August in the upper 30s to middle 40s percent. It is difficult to tell how low dewpoints may mix out this afternoon, but statistical guidance and HREF suggest perhaps middle 50s in the NW, upper 50s in Raleigh and low 60s in the SE. The one exception may be the southern Coastal Plain, where moisture may hang out with the front slower to edge through. But all in all, a great afternoon to be outside. Lows tonight may bottom out in the low to middle 60s, with a few of our cooler spots dipping into the upper 50s. That lower humidity should continue into Monday, despite highs the next few days in the mid/upper 80s, to near 90 in the south. With the moisture lingering in our far SE today, cannot rule out a stray isolated shower or storm, especially Sampson County, though overall ensembles keep most storms to our east along the coast. Some of the guidance, particularly the GFS, indicate a weak surface wave forming along the front as it stalls out along central SC. This wave is progged in some guidance to track north Monday and perhaps buckle the front back north. This could initiate isolated or scattered storms Monday morning or afternoon, most favored in the Sandhills to the central Coastal Plain. Confidence in this scenario is low but if trends continue, rain chances and clouds may increase in our south and east Monday. KEY MESSAGE 2... Diurnally maximized convection returns to central NC Thursday through the weekend. A closed mid/upper level low over southern Quebec Tues morning will continue to slowly pivot east-northeast as another series of shortwaves parade across Great Lakes and southern Ontario through Fri. Moisture returns in the low lvls as early as Wed, with deeper moisture return on Thurs, although rich tropical moisture appears limited in the mid/upper levels as west-northwest flow persists over the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas. Nevertheless, this should support diurnally driven convection as surface dew points in the 70s return and PWAT values rise back to around or slightly-above normal into the weekend. There may be some mixing out of dew points each afternoon, especially over the Piedmont back into the 60s which may limit the moderate instability to the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Thurs appears to have the best chance for measurable precipitation with neutral H5 height tendencies and potential influence from any MCV's from upstream convection over the Ohio Valley. Reasonable high- end totals for any given area will be around 1" to as much as +2" based on the 12z LREF. However, these amounts will not occur everywhere, as is the nature of summertime convection, with most locations likely to receive somewhere between trace amounts to 0.5" between 8 AM Thurs to 8 AM Fri. For now, no widespread concern for excessive rainfall is expected through the forecast period. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 AM Sunday... An area of isolated convection tied to an approaching cold front has largely dissipated owing to more stable conditions taking over. While we cannot rule out a stray shower in the first few hours of the TAF period, the overall probability appears low. With both INT and GSO seeing a storm Sat evening, the chance of sub-VFR stratus or visibilities increases for early Sun, especially if winds can go calm before frontal passage. We included a temporary MVFR restriction for this threat. Guidance appears to be in better agreement of sub-VFR restrictions at FAY and secondarily at RWI. Moisture will still be present at FAY through early Sun ahead of the front and this appears more likely based on the atmospheric setup. We continued this trend for the 06z TAF period at FAY/RWI, with greater LIFR/IFR restrictions at FAY. VFR should prevail after 13z at all terminals, with west to northwest winds developing post- frontal. Some gusts to 18 kt are favored in the afternoon. We cannot rule out a storm near FAY in the afternoon but most activity should reside well east of the terminal. Outlook: Early morning fog/stratus will be possible Mon morning at FAY/RWI. Otherwise dry VFR weather should prevail through Tue, though a brief shower cannot be ruled out Mon at FAY. Moisture and lift increases midweek and the chance of convection returns Wed- Thu. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kren/Swiggett AVIATION...Kren  581 FXUS64 KMOB 230600 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 100 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1259 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - A Heat Advisory is in effect for southeast Mississippi today for heat indices to around 108 degrees. - Afternoon rain chances increase today and especially into next week, mainly over the southern half of the local area. Storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A northwesterly upper-level flow pattern is in place across the local area as an upper ridge builds over the Rockies and upper troughing digs over the Great Lakes region. This general pattern is expected to continue through the week, allowing for several embedded shortwaves to push into the area from the northwest. The first of these shortwaves is currently passing across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Forcing from this shortwave helped to spark off a complex of storms which moved through north/central MS and AL this past evening. As we go through the rest of the overnight hours, outflow from these storms will push southeastward, likely reaching our coastal counties by the mid to late morning hours. Additionally, as the aforementioned shortwave passes overhead, guidance now suggests that it will help to push deep moisture (PWATs around 1.8-2.1 inches) into the area. It should be noted that this is a rather stark difference to what guidance was showing 24 hours ago. What this means is that we appear to be trending wetter for Sunday afternoon, particularly over the southern half of the local area where the remnant outflow boundary and sea breeze boundary serve as a focus for showers and storms to develop along. PoPs across the southern half of the area now range from 30-50%, with PoPs around 20% further inland. Although shear is weak, the highly unstable environment in place (SBCAPEs exceeding 3000 J/kg and DCAPEs up to around 1000 J/kg) could support a few strong to severe pulse-type storms, capable of producing gusty to damaging winds. A Marginal Risk of Severe Weather is in place for locations south of Highway 84. Activity will diminish by the evening hours. Rain chances increase even further on Monday and throughout the week as several more shortwaves push into the area within the northwesterly flow pattern aloft. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected to develop each afternoon, with the highest coverage expected over coastal counties as storms initially develop along the sea breeze and spread via outflow boundary collisions. Strong daytime heating will also lead to high instability which could support the development of a few strong to severe storms capable of producing gusty downburst winds and small hail, along with frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and very heavy rainfall. Additionally, as we often see whenever we have a northwesterly flow pattern this time of year, we will have to keep a close eye on if upstream storms are able to organize into an MCS and push into our local area. If an MCS is able to develop and impact our area, then we could see an increased risk for damaging winds. We will monitor trends closely over the coming days. Very hot conditions are expected on Sunday, with highs topping out in the mid to upper 90s. A Heat Advisory has been issued for our southeast Mississippi counties for Heat indices of around 108 degrees. The good news, though, is that with the increase in rain chances throughout the week, temperatures will fall back to their seasonal norms, with highs by midweek in the upper 80s to low 90s. Heat indices throughout the rest of the period should generally remain just below Heat Advisory criteria (around 102-107), although a few localized spots of 108-110 degrees cannot be ruled out. Lows will range from the low 70s inland to the upper 70s along the coast. A Low Risk of rip currents remains in place through the week. /96 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period outside of isolated showers and thunderstorms that will develop this afternoon, mainly along the coast. Brief periods of IFR/MVFR conditions and gusty winds will be possible in and around showers and thunderstorms. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 105 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A light to occasionally moderate westerly flow pattern continues through late next week. Winds are expected to follow a pattern that shifts from southwesterly each afternoon to northwesterly late each night. Isolated to potentially scattered showers and storms can be expected each morning next week with locally higher seas and winds near storms. SS/97 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 97 75 93 74 / 30 10 60 20 Pensacola 96 79 93 77 / 30 10 60 20 Destin 93 80 91 79 / 20 10 50 30 Evergreen 99 72 94 70 / 20 10 40 20 Waynesboro 100 73 92 69 / 10 30 50 10 Camden 97 73 92 72 / 10 20 40 10 Crestview 97 73 95 72 / 30 10 60 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...None. && $$  780 FXUS63 KIWX 230602 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 202 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - 20-30% chances for scattered lake effect rain showers downwind of Lake Michigan tonight through Sunday. - Dangerous swimming conditions persist through the weekend on southern Lake Michigan. - Below normal temperatures and much lower humidity Sunday through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1237 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A typical early fall-like weekend is ahead with clouds, showers, breezy conditions, and cooler temperatures. A low pressure system is located over northern Lower Michigan with its attendant cold front positioned just west of IN-15 currently. Scattered showers and isolated storms can be seen on radar this afternoon, especially along and east of I-69, where a 500 mb shortwave is aiding in convective development as the front pushes east. Can't rule out an isolated strong storm or two (especially in northwest Ohio) as there is an area of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 700 J/kg DCAPE across northern Indiana and northwest Ohio but the likelihood of organized severe weather is low given marginal shear of only 20 kts and poor low/mid level lapse rates. In addition to showers and storms, a deepening pressure gradient on the backside of this system is expected to generate gusty northwest winds throughout this afternoon and evening. Northwest winds will be sustained around 10 to 15 mph with gusts as high as 25 to 30 mph until sunset. Northwest cyclonic flow and delta Ts of ~14C (water temps ~24C, 10C at 850mb tonight) should produce at least a weak lake effect response tonight with scattered showers overnight into Sunday morning in the vicinity of Lake Michigan. Showers should gradually increase in coverage across northern Indiana downwind of Lake Michigan into the afternoon on Sunday. It will be breezy again out of the northwest on Sunday and then light winds return Monday and Tuesday as the pressure gradient eases. Did bump up cloud cover and lower temps for tomorrow as this pattern typically produces more lake effect clouds downwind of Lake Michigan than the NBM picks up on. Dangerous swimming conditions are ongoing for southeast Lake Michigan beaches and are expected to continue through Sunday. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for La Porte and Berrien counties through 11 PM EDT Sunday. High swim risks are expected both days with northwest winds generating 3 to 5 ft waves. Strong rip and structural currents are also expected! If your weekend plans include heading to the beach, heed all warnings from lifeguards and stay out of the water! A dry, continental airmass from central Canada moves in later Sunday as high pressure builds across the Midwest and Great Lakes. Much lower humidity and several days of slightly below normal temperatures will make for refreshing early fall-like days Sunday through Tuesday with highs in the mid 70s and dew points only in the low to mid 50s! Get the pumpkin spice lattes ready for the crisp mornings ahead as lows Monday and Tuesday morning will only be in the low 50s! Wednesday is a bit warmer (highs 75 to 80 degrees) and features the next chance for rain and storms. A similar setup, although not as pronounced as today, is likely with another upper level trough over the Great Lakes and a surface cold front sweeping through. At this time, have maintained 20-50% chances for scattered rain and storms Wednesday, with the highest chances in the evening. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 151 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Predominantly VFR conditions at the terminals this period, with MVFR ceilings/vis possible during shower activity this morning (KSBN) and possibly this afternoon (KFWA). Some of guidance hinting at some BR development at KFWA early but left out for now given winds are slightly stronger than models depict. Stronger W-NW winds return this afternoon, with gusts up to around 20-25 knots possible. Confidence in shower activity impact either terminal is fairly is low-a lot of the guidance is pretty widely scattered in terms of areal coverage. However, felt confident to at least put a mention for KSBN given upstream showers over Lake MI with incoming trough. Added a prob30 to KFWA for later this afternoon. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043- 046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...MCD  849 FXUS61 KCTP 230604 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 204 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Severe thunderstorm watch in effect for the NW counties through 9 PM. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Strong to severe thunderstorms will roll into the west late this afternoon and evening. 2) Cold front will pass tonight cooling things off, and cooler air aloft under deep upper low will set up an unstable airmass for Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Strong to severe thunderstorms will roll into the west late this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for the 3 MW counties in CTP's CWA. Thinking is that the initial batch/cluster of storms in OH will move slowly and not arrive in Warren Co until 5 PM (21Z) or later. The watch may need to be expanded a little to the east, and even extended a little in time (esp if it is expanded) past the current exp time of 9 PM (01Z). The main severe threat today is damaging wind gusts. But, the initial storms/clusters may have some rotation to them. Certainly worth monitoring the rainfall across the area if the storms stay slow-moving. But, the wind field looks more linear/progressive as the night goes along. FFG in that area is 1.5-1.7"/1 hr. Not high, but also not all that low. ----------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Cold front will pass tonight cooling things off, and cooler air aloft under deep upper low will set up an unstable airmass for Sunday and Monday. The first batch of storms are ahead of the main cold front which is being driven SE by a digging/deepening upper low to our NW. The front will pass through late this evening in the NW and before morning in the SE. Thunder will continue to be possible overnight as the initial storms and then the front (with any additional storms) roll through. However, the loss of daytime instability and generally poorer severe components will cause the weakening of the storms to sub-severe levels. Expect some drying to occur overnight with dewpoints lowering slightly over the NW half of the CWA. If we get some clearing, the ambient moisture will help make fog again tonight. Temps aloft will cool substantially. Even at 8H, temps will drop 10C over the next 30hrs. The resulting instability, especially during the afternoon heating, will result in numerous SHRA/TSRA. The most-favorable conditions will be across the nrn half of the CWA Sunday where SPC has a MRGL risk for severe wind & hail. Maxes only in the 60s and a brisk W wind will make it feel much more like Sept/Oct than mid-Aug. Similar conditions are expected for Monday with the center of the upper low still hanging around our longitude and only moving slowly poleward. The SHRA/TSRA will likely be confined to only the nrn tier of counties in PA on Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Working both shifts today, so 00Z TAF set done largely already earlier this aft (18Z set), so main adjustment for the new set is for timing of showers and storms as of early evening. Back edge to most everything is near the PA, OH border. More information below. Showers are pivoting east and will only impact MDT and LNS for another hour or two as of 06Z. Some back end, scattered light showers have been noted too which may impact UNV and possibly IPT if they hold together. The main restrictions tonight look to be in the form of low ceilings as high clouds move out of the area. Forecaster confidence in exact impacts is on the lower side, particularly in relation to what degree low level moisture will affect visibility. Regardless, widespread MVFR ceilings leading into IFR ceilings overnight looks to be the most likely solution at this time. As thesun rises, current guidance favors MVFR ceilings lingering into mid-morning. Once daytime convection kicks in and cloud ceilings raise, VFR will be favored through tomorrow. Lake effect rain bands are possible in the northwest, which may impact BFD, although exact timing is uncertain. Added PROB30 to highlight best chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Cooling temperatures aloft behind the front and a 20+kt 850mb jet should allow for gusty westerly winds tomorrow. Outlook... Mon-Wed...Patchy morning fog, otherwise mainly VFR conditions return early next week with lower statewide precipitation chances. Thu...Chance of showers and storms again. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo DISCUSSION...Dangelo AVIATION...Lambrech  841 FXUS61 KOKX 230604 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 204 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated for aviation with 06z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Conditions remain unsettled this weekend, with a chance for locally heavy downpours overnight into Sunday. A few storms on Sunday could be strong to severe. 2) Drier conditions settle in early to mid next week, with temperatures averaging slightly below normal. 3) Showers and thunderstorm chances return towards the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Heights fall overnight as mid level troughing digs south from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Though the parent surface low remains well to the north and west of the region, a weak wave of low pressure tracks north along an offshore frontal boundary tonight, passing nearby Sunday morning, before the attendant cold front moves through later in the day. Strengthening SW flow aloft will advect deep moisture plume into the region during this time, with PWATs increasing to between 1.5 and 2 inches. Rain coverage is expected to be more scattered in nature than widespread overnight, and some areas will remain much drier than others. But with the ample moisture available, as well as some instability Sunday morning observed in forecast soundings, can't rule out localized flooding if heavier activity persists or trains over one area. A strong to severe thunderstorm also can't be ruled out in the mid to late morning hours and SPC has kept the region outlined in a marginal (level 1/5) risk, with an isolated damaging wind gust possible. Despite the rain chances, the remainder of the weekend won't be a washout, and QPF overall is expected to be modest, on the order of a quarter to half inch. Given the nature of the convective activity, there could be a few areas that pick up a quick couple of inches of rain should cells prove more persistent, but this would be quite localized if it were to occur. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Beyond the frontal passage, the closed low trough continues to shift into the Northeast, keeping mid level heights low. Surface high pressure builds in from the Midwest, with westerly flow persisting through midweek. Given the cyclonic flow and cold pool aloft, expect a fair amount of stratcu development Monday afternoon, and can't rule out a few pop up showers across the interior. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail. Temperatures will remain a few degrees below climo for late August, daytime highs generally in the 70s to low 80s. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Guidance continues to indicate the approach of the next frontal system from the west along with a digging upper level trough late this week. This will bring a return to a more unsettled weather pattern with chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. It's too early at this time to narrow down any potential severe threats from this system. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A warm front moves through this morning, followed by a cold front for mid to late evening. Any VFR conditions should give way to MVFR overnight and early this morning. IFR becomes increasingly likely during the morning push, although some terminals will remain MVFR through the remainder of the morning. Showers become increasingly likely over the next few hours, especially closer to 08-09z through 12-13z. PROB30 for TSRA for the mid to late morning until 18-19z. All terminals eventually improve back to VFR this afternoon. Winds shift briefly SE to S Sunday morning, then SW by around noontime for most terminals. Terminals east of NYC shift SW later in the day. Gusts up to 20kt Sunday afternoon are possible. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Brief IFR may occur forthe early morning towards the start of the morning push. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Late Sunday night: VFR. Light winds. Monday through Wednesday: VFR. WSW gusts around 20kt on Monday afternoon. Thursday: VFR AM, chance of sub-VFR and PM -shra. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Conditions on the coastal waters are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds with a weak pressure gradient in place through mid next week. Rip Currents: The rip current risk for the rest of today is low to moderate. A moderate risk is expected for both Sunday and Monday. The swell will be primarily from the SE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DR AVIATION...JE MARINE...JC/DR  896 FXUS65 KABQ 230605 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1205 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1141 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue today and Sunday mainly along and west of the central mountain chain with a risk of cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts, and ponding of water on roads. - Smoke from the Frijoles Fire will continue to impact air quality in the vicinity of the fire this week. - Moderate-to-high heat risk will impact much of central and eastern New Mexico this weekend through the middle of next week with record and near-record high temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Storms so far today have been mostly concentrated over the western and northern high terrain with spatially small cells moving very slowly as the stout 598 decameter high settles over NM. GOES total precipitable water values are showing lowest values of 0.6 to 0.8 inch over the Sangre de Cristos which was modeled quite well yesterday. Elsewhere readings rise to 0.8 to 1.1 inch with the highest values found in the climatologically expected eastern plains. Even with these PWATs, the surface dewpoints in the 40's and low 50's and hot temperatures in the 80's, 90's, and low 100's are creating some large dewpoint depressions that are impeding rainfall efficiency. The high is also producing sluggish steering flow that is making it hard for cells to move off of the high terrain. The catch-22 for many nearby lower elevations is that they will be dependent on stronger nearby high terrain storms that can create sufficient mesoscale cold pools and outflow boundaries moving into lower elevations before new lower elevation storms can be regenerated through the evening. Hot temperatures are also underway, and the Heat Advisory will continue for Chaves and Quay counties through 8 PM MDT. Storms are modeled to largely dissipate before midnight with a few less vigorous showers surviving into the early morning hours. Another Heat Advisory might be needed for Sunday. Currently, this updated forecast only has Roswell meeting criteria (105 F), but a few locations are encroaching upon record high temperatures which might be justification for expansion. A subtle perturbation still looks to move eastward over the central Rockies in CO with subsequent storms sending outflow and perhaps additional storms into northern NM late Sunday. Otherwise, western high terrain areas will remain the favored area for storm development Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The upper high is advertised to settle more concentrically over NM into Monday with heights reducing a decameter or two, down to 596-597 at 500 mb. Southeasterly return flow at the surface will meet up with a weak, moist backdoor front on Monday with convergence and upslope flow aligning over northeastern NM where storms would be focused. The east southeast surface winds coupled with west northwesterly winds aloft could yield sufficient directional shear for a strong to severe storm or two late Monday afternoon into the evening. More sparse storms will continue developing along and near the Continental Divide Monday, and a near-persistence temperature forecast will keep heat impacts front and center for many NM zones. A reinforcing backdoor boundary could slide back into southeastern CO, southwestern KS, and far northeastern NM with perhaps another perturbation aloft along the CO front range on Tuesday. The NAM is even more invasive with this backdoor boundary, carrying it much farther southward into the NM plains. Regardless of exact location, this boundary will once again help ignite storm development while providing enough directional shear for a few more strong to severe cells Tuesday. By this time, recycling of available moisture would be more difficult for western zones, and less coverage is possible there. Tuesday's convection will help govern the placement of the moist, unstable plains airmass going into the day Wednesday. For now, it is modeled to be draped over northeast to east central NM and possibly toward the high terrain of Lincoln county which would lead to farther southward expansion of storms Wednesday afternoon. Into Thursday, the upper high will be settling into southwestern NM or eastern AZ. Surface winds look to veer more southeasterly or southerly with areas along and east of the central mountain chain appearing to be the best poised for scattered storms Thursday afternoon and evening. Moisture and instability would be then be tempered some into Friday with storms tending to stay more focused over and near the high terrain. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Isolated showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish during the late night hours. Sunday afternoon and evening, scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are again expected over northern and western areas, with spottier activity potentially developing as far south as Clovis, Fort Sumner, Clines Corners, Moriarty, and Rio Rancho. Storm motion on Sunday should generally be toward the east around 10-15 KT. A few of the stronger storms will be capable of producing localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts up to 45 KT. Record and near-record high temperatures will make density altitude and important consideration for aviation operations near complex terrain. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The monsoon high will be stronger than normal for the next several days, keeping temperatures 5 to 12 degrees above average. The high will also limit storms for the rest of the weekend, generally keeping cells confined to northern and western NM. This regime will keep daily rounds of low afternoon humidity (12-20%) in the forecast through the weekend. Storms will then trend up in northeastern NM Monday and Tuesday before expanding into more of the eastern half of the state on Wednesday as weak, but moist backdoor fronts move in. With high temperatures only getting reduced a couple to a few degrees in eastern zones, readings will still stay above normal area-wide through late next week. Humidity will recover better in areas impacted by the backdoor fronts (morning recoveries of 60-80%), but elsewhere humidity will only rebound to 40-60% in the mornings. Storms could then reduce in number and coverage again by late in the upcoming work week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 66 95 63 94 / 10 10 5 5 Dulce........................... 52 89 50 91 / 20 20 10 10 Cuba............................ 60 88 59 90 / 20 10 20 10 Gallup.......................... 58 91 56 90 / 40 30 20 20 El Morro........................ 57 86 56 87 / 30 30 20 20 Grants.......................... 59 89 57 90 / 20 40 20 20 Quemado......................... 58 87 58 88 / 20 30 10 20 Magdalena....................... 63 89 64 90 / 10 20 10 20 Datil........................... 59 85 58 86 / 10 20 10 20 Reserve......................... 58 94 58 95 / 5 10 5 20 Glenwood........................ 64 99 65 100 / 5 0 5 20 Chama........................... 53 83 51 85 / 30 30 10 30 Los Alamos...................... 63 87 62 88 / 20 40 30 20 Pecos........................... 60 88 60 89 / 10 10 10 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 57 84 55 85 / 10 60 2030 Red River....................... 50 74 48 76 / 20 40 20 40 Angel Fire...................... 46 81 43 82 / 20 20 10 50 Taos............................ 57 88 54 89 / 10 40 20 20 Mora............................ 56 86 55 86 / 20 10 10 50 Espanola........................ 64 94 60 95 / 10 20 30 10 Santa Fe........................ 64 89 63 90 / 10 10 20 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 62 92 61 93 / 10 10 20 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 69 96 69 97 / 20 0 10 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 68 97 67 97 / 10 0 10 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 67 98 67 99 / 10 0 10 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 96 68 97 / 10 5 10 5 Belen........................... 66 98 66 99 / 10 5 10 0 Bernalillo...................... 68 98 67 99 / 20 5 10 5 Bosque Farms.................... 65 98 65 99 / 10 0 10 0 Corrales........................ 68 98 67 99 / 20 5 10 5 Los Lunas....................... 66 98 66 98 / 10 5 10 0 Placitas........................ 67 94 66 95 / 20 0 10 5 Rio Rancho...................... 68 97 67 98 / 20 5 10 5 Socorro......................... 70 100 70 100 / 10 10 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 89 63 90 / 20 10 10 5 Tijeras......................... 64 91 64 92 / 20 10 10 5 Edgewood........................ 60 92 59 93 / 20 20 10 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 58 94 57 95 / 20 20 10 10 Clines Corners.................. 62 89 61 90 / 20 20 10 10 Mountainair..................... 61 92 61 92 / 10 10 10 10 Gran Quivira.................... 62 91 61 92 / 10 10 10 10 Carrizozo....................... 67 94 67 96 / 5 10 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 60 86 62 88 / 0 10 0 10 Capulin......................... 60 88 57 87 / 10 40 30 50 Raton........................... 58 91 55 91 / 10 50 30 60 Springer........................ 59 94 56 93 / 20 40 20 30 Las Vegas....................... 59 90 57 90 / 20 10 20 30 Clayton......................... 67 97 65 96 / 5 40 20 30 Roy............................. 63 94 60 93 / 10 20 30 20 Conchas......................... 70 102 67 101 / 10 20 20 5 Santa Rosa...................... 67 98 66 98 / 10 20 20 5 Tucumcari....................... 71 102 69 101 / 0 20 10 5 Clovis.......................... 70 101 71 102 / 5 20 10 5 Portales........................ 71 101 72 103 / 5 20 10 0 Fort Sumner..................... 70 101 70 102 / 0 20 10 0 Roswell......................... 70 103 72 105 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 66 98 67 99 / 0 10 0 5 Elk............................. 63 95 64 97 / 0 10 0 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...44  861 FXUS66 KSGX 230604 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 1104 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Monsoonal moisture will decrease this weekend, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for the mountains and lower deserts returning for Monday afternoon. Above average high and low temperatures will continue through next week. Widespread moderate to locally major HeatRisk for the coast, valleys, and mountains except near the beaches and for the higher elevations in the mountains, with major to extreme HeatRisk for the lower deserts. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... Another mostly clear day across the region. Over the San Bernardino Mountains, there is some cumulus development, though much less vertically developed than at this time yesterday. With southwesterly steering flow aloft and limited PWAT, chances for any showers this afternoon are around 10% over the southern San Diego County mountains and less elsewhere. The marine layer this morning was only around 500-1000 feet deep, yielding patchy fog west of the I-15 corridor down to the coastal mesas. This pattern should continue for at least the next few nights with the marine layer expanding a few hundred feet Sunday night then contracting again Monday night. Thunderstorm chances look rather limited throughout the entire forecast period; Monday being the only day with more than zero confidence for perhaps a few showers/thunderstorms as PWAT's may briefly rise above 1.3 inches. Model spread in PWAT values diverge quite significantly through the rest of the week, so precip chances remain uncertain. In terms of heat, the ridge of high pressure across the Four Corners Region is here to stay through the end of August. The ridge tightens ever so slightly Sunday, allowing temperatures to back off a few degrees inland and in the deserts for Monday afternoon before slowly expanding and intensifying again through the middle of the week. Highs increase 2 to 4 degrees into Tuesday, then another few degrees into Wednesday with a net increase of 5 to 10 degrees over these two days (4-8 above average Monday to 10-14 above average Wednesday). These very hot temperatures stick around until at least Friday with limited guidance showing any weakening of the ridge through the end of the 7-day forecast period. HeatRisk for the inland valleys increase from predominantly moderate through Tuesday to Major through Friday. For coastal areas and higher elevations, HeatRisk transitions from Minor through Monday to Moderate and locally Major (all the way to the beaches) for the remainder of the week. The combination of hot daytime temperatures with overnight temperatures struggling to drop below the lower 70s will especially affect those without access to air conditioning. In raw numbers, Monday highs look like... ... 80s at the coast, 90s inland, 100-105F in the IE and around 110F in the lower deserts. Wed/Thurs/Fri highs look like... ... upper 80s/low 90s at the coast, 95-105F inland, 105-110F in the IE and 114-117F in the lower deserts. The Heat Advisory for inland areas through 10 AM Tuesday is then followed by an Extreme Heat Watch through Friday 8 PM for the whole region, except for the lower deserts which are already in an Extreme Heat Warning through Friday evening. Take breaks in the shade, hydrate and seek A/C when possible! && .AVIATION... 230530Z...Coast...Mostly clear skies over the majority of the coast with just a few clouds based around 1,000ft MSL over south SD coastal waters. Clouds will become more widespread towards 9-10Z but remain patchy and intermittent majority of the night. Moderate confidence on cigs impacting coastal SD between 10-15Z with bases 500-1,000ft MSL. Lowered vis 2-4 SM expected for higher coastal terrain, locally >= 1 SM. Clouds clear over land by 16Z. Otherwise...VFR conditions through the TAF period with mostly clear skies through 18Z. Mid/high clouds AOA 20,000ft MSL expected east of the mountains in the afternoon Sunday. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Wednesday. && .BEACHES... A 4-5 foot southerly swell at 13-15 seconds will move into the area Wednesday and Thursday, leading to elevated surf for the south facing beaches of northern San Diego County and Orange County. Breaking waves of 4 to 6 feet are likely, with the potential for localized sets to 8 feet. Surf gradually subsides on Friday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Friday evening for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Orange County Coastal Areas- Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys- Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Heat Advisory until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for Coachella Valley- San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...SS AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...CSP  993 FXUS61 KALY 230607 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 207 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Refined timing for showers and thunderstorms Sunday. First, more widespread round moves through in the morning to early afternoon. Additional, scattered showers and thunderstorms develop from mid afternoon to early evening. Coverage looks less later in the day. There remains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms across the entire region on Sunday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Likelihood of showers and thunderstorms increases late tonight into Sunday. A few storms may become severe on Sunday. 2) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday and Tuesday, especially near and north of I-90. Temperatures will be below normal. 3) Chances of showers and thunderstorms return late next week along with warmer temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... An upper level trough over our region will deepen through the rest of the weekend, as a closed low develops across the Great Lakes and far SE Canada. Initially, our area will be on the downstream/diffluent side of the trough axis, with an associated occluded surface front tracking NE Sun morning into early afternoon. A weak surface wave developing along the front along with PWAT anomalies briefly increasing to +1 to +2 STDEV, could result in brief downpours associated with any convection with the occluded front. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms Sunday, first with convective clusters/lines in the morning to early afternoon with potential for isolated damaging winds gusts. Then, there looks to be another period for more cellular storm mode in the afternoon, with de-stabilization (SB CAPE of 700-1500 J/Kg) and 0-6 km shear increasing to 35-40 kt in wake of the front (from REFS). Breaks of sunshine and residual low level moisture, along with falling heights aloft will result in potential for some additional severe storms, with both isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail the main threats. Coverage of shower/T-storms should be less compared to the morning though. Convection should dissipate shortly after sunset Sunday evening, as instability wanes and a small low level ridge builds in from the west. KEY MESSAGE 2... The main core of the upper level low mentioned above will be firmly established near the far southern Ontario/Quebec border by Mon and will be anomalously strong (500 mb height anomalies of -2 to -3 STDEV). A potent short wave disturbance rotating around the periphery of the low center, is expected to move across our area. This will result in additional showers and a few T-storms, especially Mon afternoon to early evening. Showers will be most numerous across the Adirondacks, where there will be upslope/lake enhancement with a cold core aloft moving overhead with W-SW flow developing. While the overall threat for severe weather appears low, there is potential for at least a few storms to produce small hail and/or gusty winds due to steepening low/mid level lapse rates. The core of the upper low is expected to track into southern Quebec on Tue, with the system's upper trough axis still in place across our region. This will result in additional showers developing, although lower coverage compared to Mon (mainly isolated to scattered). Showers will be most favored across westerly upslope areas of the higher terrain. It will also be breezy, with westerly winds gusting 20-25 mph at times in favored areas. Temperatures will remain below normal through Tuesday. KEY MESSAGE 3... After a break in the unsettled weather on Wed, chances for showers/T-storms will increase again during the Thu/Fri time frame, as a broad upper level trough approaches from the west. Potential multiple short wave passages should result in scattered to numerous showers, with T-storms also possible depending on instability and moisture return. Confidence in timing/coverage is low due to uncertainty in details of smaller scale features this far out. Temperatures look to warm back to normal mid-late next week too. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06z Monday...Primarily MVFR conditions prevail across all terminals early this morning as low level moisture continues to increase ahead of an incoming occluded boundary. Over the next several hours, conditions should stay relatively steady, though scattered breaks in cloud coverage could result in some brief improvements in ceilings to VFR heights. Or, in the case of PSF, breaks could result in improvements from IFR to MVFR. Regardless, by about 10-13z, all sites will consistently sport IFR to MVFR conditions as low-level stratus becomes more consistent and showers begin to spread across the region. Rainfall rates in this initial round of rain will be light, so visibility is expected to remain around 4-6SM. A brief break in precipitation then comes late morning into early this afternoon before the potential for scattered thunderstorms increases later this afternoon. As confidence is not high in the exact timing or location of thunderstorms, PROB30s were included in the TAFs to highlight the period of greatest potential. Generally, the greatest probability of thunderstorms lies between 20- 01z. Once these conclude and the aforementioned boundary departs near the end of the 06z TAF cycle, improvements to the VFR category are expected. Winds will begin our of the southeast today at sustained speeds under 10kt. By this afternoon, winds will increase to around 10kt or so before the boundary shifts winds to the west and southwest. Sustained speeds will then fall back under 10 kt by the end of the period. Outlook... Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...12  932 FXUS63 KOAX 230606 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 106 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool temperatures and cloudy skies today with highs in the 70s expected. Light rain is likely (50-60%) across portions of eastern Nebraska - less rain in the far east and across western Iowa. - Another round of showers and thunderstorms likely early Monday morning with drying in the afternoon. - Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances continue next week, with high temperatures generally in the mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Sunday and Monday A weak surface high remains in place across the Central and Northern Plains early this morning. Winds are light and there is a thin band of cirrus streaming across the area. With time this morning, winds will slowly veer to the south, but they may actually go calm at number of locations. While patchy fog in low lying areas is still possible near sunrise, there are a couple factors working against it. There is a slightly drier boundary layer after good mixing on Saturday and light northerly winds, plus being another day removed from rainfall across far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Also, mid-high clouds look to expand across the area between 4-7 AM CT, which would put a lid on the radiative cooling. Stepping upward in the atmosphere, ridging over the Intermountain West leaves the local area in a northwest flow pattern both in the short term and beyond as the pattern looks to remain fairly stubborn over the next several days. There is a healthy fetch of moisture off to our west as well with a 1.25+" PWAT contour extending from west Texas to the Canadian border across the High Plains. There has also been expansive convection across the higher terrain overnight. Showers with embedded thunder are expected to walk across western and central Nebraska this morning. Instability and deep layer shear are minimal across the area this morning, so even thunder might be hard to come by across eastern Nebraska. Nonetheless, light showers are expected today along with more mid-level cloud cover. This will keep today's temperatures cooler. It's sort of a rinse and repeat pattern on Monday with convection wrapping around the ridge to our west and working across the area. Convective initiation looks likely upstream in SD aided by pronounced 925-850mb WAA between 1am-10am Monday. MUCAPE is also a little better, ~500-1000 J/Kg, across northeast NE during this time with values diminishing south and east. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out on Monday - especially near the SD/NE border. Tuesday and Beyond As previous discussions have mentioned, the northwest flow pattern will remain in place through the work week with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms - generally weak in nature. It is really tough to pin down precip timing and amounts in patterns such as these. The forcing for ascent is hard to track with not much run-to-run continuity in the model guidance, and the forcing is often weak. While shortwaves embedded in the flow have the potential to kick of showers, they are hard to diagnosis beyond 24 hours. Nonetheless, we will have several more chances to add to our hot start in terms of August precipitation: Omaha - 5.37" (+2.08) Lincoln - 4.57" (+2.31) Norfolk - 5.12" (+2.55) Looking at 500mb heights from the WPC cluster analysis (EPS/GEFS/CMCE) as we head toward the end of August, we still maintain positive height anomalies across most of the central U.S. Thus, no big cool downs appear to be on the horizon, although the ridge axis might shift 1-2 states to the west. That'd likely mean better chances for dry weather past Day 7. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...Issued at 105 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions prevail through much of the TAF period. Some patchy fog may develop early this morning although confidence in coverage and specific locations is low. This is due to cirrus expected to move into the region this morning which would inhibit some potential development. A few light showers with maybe a few rumbles of thunder will be possible through the day, particularly for KOFK and KLNK. Can't rule out a couple of showers (15-20%) at KOMA; however, the better chances will be to the west and southwest of the terminal. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CLF AVIATION...ANW  003 FXUS65 KTFX 230607 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1207 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front will move across the region today bringing drier and breezy conditions. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon with a chance a few may become severe. - Cooler temperatures will persist over the next couple days before warming up towards the middle of the week. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: An upper-level trough will make its way into Montana today with the accompanying surface cold front expected to bring gusty winds to the region along with a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. These thunderstorms will be drier in nature which will also increase fire weather concerns, particularly across Southwest Montana, through the evening. Behind the trough, more zonal flow will set up allowing for temperatures to remain relatively cooler at least over the next couple days before upper-level ridging starts to build by the middle of the week. Lingering monsoonal moisture in the region along with the chance for some additional moisture towards the end of the week may provide daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially for Southwest Montana. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Thunderstorms Sunday: With ample CAPE and shear in place and the cold front moving through, there is decent support for thunderstorm develop across the region this afternoon and evening. The remaining question is how this event will play out. The 00Z suite of hi-res models, particularly the HRRR, came in with much less coverage compared to previous runs and between the remaining hi-res models there is still some disagreement about whether there will be higher coverage in Southwest Montana or Central Montana. Some models like the NAM have pointed towards a threat of thunderstorms forming off the Little Belts and quickly becoming strong as they move into Judith Basin and Fergus county. While uncertainty remains in who will get what, there is confidence that the majority of thunderstorm activity will move off into eastern Montana by 7 PM. Additionally the main hazards will be frequent lightning and strong, gusty winds with hail being a secondary hazard primarily with the initial storms that develop. -thor && .AVIATION... 23/06Z TAF Period Scattered showers and thunderstorms over central and north- central MT will continue to weaken and dissipate as they move northeastward during the overnight hours. A trough will move northeastward out of the Pacific NW into S BC/AB today. This will send a surface front through the Northern Rockies and increase westerly winds on Sunday. There will also be widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, mostly for locations east of I15. Some of these storms may contain wind gusts over 40 kts, brief downpours, and hail in addition to cloud to ground lightning. Primarily VFR conditions will prevail away from stronger convective cores. For KGTF: Westerly winds increase to 10 to 20 kts with gusts up to 35 kts at times roughly between 23/16Z and 24/03Z. Afternoon convection looks to mostly stay east of the terminal but there is around a 30% chance for a shower or storm to impact the terminal. Thunderstorm hazards may include erratic wind gusts over 40 kts, brief downpours, and hail in addition to cloud to ground lightning. - RCG && .FIRE WEATHER... A surface front will bring gusty westerly winds through the afternoon hours across the region. Widespread gusts over 35 mph are possible and will be enhanced by any thunderstorm activity that develops. Minimum RH values will be most critical in Southwest Montana where the RFW is currently in effect for Sunday afternoon and evening. Further north, conditions will be windy but not quite as dry. Additionally there is some disagreement in the latest models as to how the thunderstorms will develop and how widespread they will be. With this uncertainty in place the decision was made to hold off on issuing a RFW for North-Central Montana for now. But elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will be a concern across the entire region. Where thunderstorms do develop, the concerns will be frequent lightning and gusty/erratic winds which may lead to new fire starts and make new and/or existing fires difficult to contain. -thor && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 90 62 89 54 / 20 20 20 0 CTB 85 58 81 50 / 20 20 20 0 HLN 90 57 87 50 / 30 60 30 0 BZN 87 54 86 49 / 50 50 50 10 WYS 81 46 78 40 / 30 50 30 10 DLN 86 52 85 47 / 50 40 20 0 HVR 93 62 93 56 / 20 10 50 10 LWT 88 60 89 53 / 10 20 50 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  278 FXUS63 KGLD 230610 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1210 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms are expected to persist overnight across the area. Low chance a few storms produce 1 inch hail and localized wind gusts up to 65 mph. - Patchy fog is possible across the area near sunrise. - Another chance for storms this evening and Monday afternoon. 1 inch hail and 65 MPH winds are the primary threats. - Above normal temperatures through at least mid week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1207 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A 500 mb high over New Mexico paired with a low over the Great Lakes regions keeps the Tri-State area under fairly persistent northwesterly flow. This will let temperatures warm up into the 90s, potentially briefly 100 degrees, over the next few days. More importantly, this give us daily chance at convection. Early this morning is a prime example as a shortwave trough is providing enough forcing for convection to move through the CWA. We are expecting this convection to largely remain sub-severe, however we cannot fully rule out a micro-burst leading to 70+ MPH winds or an isolated cell producing 1+ inch hail. The potential for these threats to come to fruition is less than 10%. There is a near equal chance for a line of these storms to train over the same area, leading to 1-3 inches of localized rainfall. Most likely, a large portion of the CWA will see a few hundredths up to an inch in some lucky spots. Behind the rain this morning, easterly winds may provide enough up- slope cooling to produce some patchy fog across the CWA. There's only a ~10% chance visibility drop below a mile in the fog, but isolated patches of dense fog are not impossible. This fog and some lingering stratus will work to stunt morning warming, keeping temperatures in the low 90s. Around 0Z this afternoon our next round of convection looks to be entering the CWA from the west from yet another shortwave trough. There looks to be a slightly better chance at severe weather with the Sunday evening convection. Scattered to clusters of supercells seems more likely. The more isolated a cell is, the better chance is will have to be severe, but there's a 60% chance storms cluster together early and would likely only muster 50-65 MPH winds and 0.75- 1.25 inch hail. If an isolated cell matures ahead of other convection, we could see 2.5 inch hail, a microburst of 80 MPH, and a brief tornado. Potential for this occurring is less than 5%. There is also a 25% chance of flash flooding from either training storms or right/left moving storms, as these motions are around 15-20 kts. The bulk of the convection looks to remain west of KS 27. All in all, storms are likely, but there is only a small, conditional threat of high-end severe weather. Convection looks to end around 6-9Z, and then temperatures will drop into the mid 60s, again. Chances are less than 10% for fog formation Monday morning. This will help temperatures warm into the upper 90s as a weak 850 mb low moves over the area, drawing more hot, southerly wind into the CWA. This low will be the source of our convection potential Monday afternoon and evening as it brings in a weak cold front. This convection looks to be fairly similar to Sunday's storms, but potentially starting a couple hours sooner. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 251 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Synoptically, the ridge to the west is forecast to mainly remain stationary over the Four Corners region, keeping us in northwesterly flow throughout the period. Guidance indicates the ridge may begin to amplify on Wednesday, and begin to de-amplify come Friday as a trough moves through the US/Canadian Border. Shortwaves are expected to move through the area during the week and into the weekend, increasing precipitation chances. High temperatures for the period will generally remain in the 90s. Wednesday appears to be the "coolest" day, with highs ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s. Friday is forecast to be the warmest, with highs in the upper 90s and the potential for a few locations to reach the low 100s. If the ridge begins to move eastward, then higher than forecasted temperatures could be seen. Winds are expected to remain calm to breezy throughout the period. Precipitation chances are present throughout the period. Wednesday and Thursday hold the highest potential, with PoPs in the 20-50% range, as shortwaves move through the area during the afternoon and evening hours. While instability and shear parameters appear sufficient for severe storms, model guidance suggests some variability in CAPE and shear values, which could lead to less organized storms and reduced severe chances. Precipitation chance then begins to taper off to 5-15% for Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1102 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions will largely dominate through the period for KGLD and KMCK, but will be broken up by showers and storms moving through the area and some fog and stratus around sunrise. KGLD has a better chance at seeing storms and stratus. Also around sunrise, southeasterly winds gusting in the 20-30 kts range are possible. This may briefly make the fog worse, but will clear us back out to VFR no later than 18Z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...Holdren AVIATION...CA  291 FXUS63 KGRB 230610 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 110 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather today into Monday, with chances (50-80%) arriving Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Shower/storm chances linger into Thursday. - Slightly below normal temps today, then a return to near or slightly above normal readings for most of the new work week. Lows tonight drop into the 30s across north-central. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 109 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Today into Monday...Quiet weather conditions are on tap for the Great Lakes region as northwest flow prevails. The cooler air moving over the Great Lakes will generate some cloud development at times, especially over northern and eastern WI. Some daytime cumulus clouds are also expected later this morning and afternoon. Some showers/sprinkles are also expected across the central and eastern U.P. today. A couple of these could clip northern Door Co. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected as surface high pressure moves in. Northwest winds will increase this morning, with gusts to around 20 mph from mid-late morning into the afternoon, with winds easing after sunset. Some very patchy ground fog will be possible this morning and again Monday morning, especially across central and northern WI. Tuesday into Wednesday...Next chance for showers and some storms arrives Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon as a sharp mid-level trough and surface cold front work through. Details remain a little elusive as timing/strength differences remain with the front/forcing. So can't put too much confidence into when the best shot for rain will occur or the threat for stronger storms, but 50-80% PoPs arrive Tuesday evening/overnight as the initial WAA arrives. Chances for additional storms on Wednesday as the front moves across the area, but timing will determine when the highest chances will occur. LREF showing MUCAPEs up to ~1000 J/kg late Tuesday and up to ~1500 J/kg on Wednesday with deep layer shear in the 20-35 kt range. So some stronger storms will be possible if things line up right. Machine Learning not highlighting much of a severe threat at this point either. So will have to monitor for severe weather trends. Thursday into Saturday...After the front exits to the east, and similar to Saturday, steep low-level lapse rates, a weak shortwave and colder air aloft combined with peak heating should produce isolated to scattered showers and storms on Thursday, mainly in the afternoon. Dry conditions look to return on Friday with another possible weather system arriving next weekend. Temperatures...Below normal temps are expected today with highs ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s over northern WI to the 70s elsewhere. It will be chilly tonight with ideal radiational cooling conditions, with lows dropping into the mid 30s to around 40 across northern WI (where some very patchy frost is possible) and into the 40s to around 50 elsewhere. After the brief cool day down today and tonight, temps return to near or slightly above normal with highs mainly in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Normal highs for the coming week start off in the 77-78F range, but by next weekend fall off into the mid 70s. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 944 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Very isolated areas of mid-clouds exist, but skies have cleared for the most part across northeast WI. Mainly clear skies are expected through 15Z Sunday morning. With a modest pressure gradient, MOS guidance shows little to no fog threat, but will monitor as climatology would suggest some patchy fog is possible across the northwoods where rain occurred this afternoon. Fair weather clouds will likely build with daytimeheating 15-16Z Sunday. Cloud bases will remain VFR (5-6 kft) which will gradually rise through the afternoon. The clearing is expected early Sunday evening. Northwest winds will remain breezy on Sunday with gusts 14-18 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 109 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Northwest winds of 10-20 kts will continue today into tonight with gusts to 25 kts possible mainly north of Sturgeon Bay. Gusts have been struggling to get to 25 kts overnight, with only the mid-lake buoy hitting 25 kts for a short time. With CAA continuing this morning, still could see gusts to 25 kts. And the HREF 10m gust ensemble mean still showing 25-30 kt winds right to Washington Island, but keep the stronger winds towards northern Lake Michigan. Will continue the Small Craft Advisory for the central Bay and for Lake Michigan nearshore waters north of Sturgeon Bay through 15z. Offshore winds will limit waves to 1 to 3 ft for most spots on the bay and nearshore waters, with any 3-4 foot waves staying near Deaths Door and in the open waters. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Bersch AVIATION.......MPC MARINE.........Bersch  287 FXUS64 KFWD 230610 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 110 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures near or over 100 degrees will continue through next week, with the hottest days of the summer likely Sunday through Tuesday. - An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for parts of North Texas with a Heat Advisory across the rest of North and Central Texas, and these will likely be extended into early next week. - Hot temperatures and low humidity will contribute to increased wildfire starts this weekend through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through tonight) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Latest radar imagery show the earlier showers and thunderstorms that affect much of southern Oklahoma all day and oozed southward into our area have mostly dissipated. However, this activity has left thick high level cloud cover north of I-20 which has held temperatures down especially closer to the Red River. Based on this, have gone ahead and removed Jack/Wise/Denton/Collin Counties from the Extreme Heat Warning and put them in the Heat Advisory. Despite the cloud cover, highs should still easily reach well into the 90s in our north and 100s elsewhere - with the hottest temperatures expected in the EHW. Although an isolated shower/storm could pop up this afternoon, CAMs have backed off this idea in favor of the shortwave currently moving southward across Kansas/Oklahoma. As this system arrives tonight, CAMs such as the HRRR/HREF indicate isolated showers/storms could move southward out of Oklahoma into North Texas in the 03-09Z timeframe. Have adjusted pops to match this possibility. Otherwise, another warm night in the 70s/80s is anticipated areawide. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Forecast reasoning for next week remains unchanged from previous discussions. The strong upper level ridge centered over New Mexico/West Texas will shift closer to us from Sunday into Tuesday, before gradually shifting back to the west from Wednesday through the rest of the week. This pattern will give North and Central Texas three very hot days from Sunday to Tuesday with highs reaching the hottest of the summer so far into the 103-113 range. The Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory will certainly need to be extended through at least Tuesday of next week. Although a few isolated showers or storms are possible in East Texas on Sunday afternoon, the rest of this three day period will be hot and dry. From Wednesday into next weekend, the center of the H5 ridge will shift westward into Arizona with heights falling aloft and somewhat stronger upper level northerly flow developing over North and Central Texas. This pattern shift will "cool" our high temperatures down into the 98-104 range for the remainder of the week, while also bringing low rain chances each day. Don't get too excited, however, as most areas will stay hot and dry. Given the continued heat and lack of substantial rainfall, drought conditions are likely to worsen with a continued/increasing threat of wildfire starts. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 109 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Scattered, short-lived showers have developed early this morning along an outflow boundary from storms in the Big Country, oriented SW to NE, and behind a weak cold front, currently draped NW to SE across the Metroplex. Brief wind gusts of 15-25KT are possible with these showers, but we expect ceilings and visibility to remain VFR. Light (5-7KT) ESE winds are present behind the front, but wind direction should veer toward more typical southerly flow by sunrise as the front washes out. Meanwhile, light westerly winds have been observed behind the outflow boundary, which will soon near the western edges of the I-35 corridor. We will monitor the progression of this outflow for future amendments, if necessary, to wind direction at Metroplex sites. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 107 85 107 83 / 10 0 0 0 Waco 106 81 103 79 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 103 80 104 81 / 10 0 10 0 Denton 107 84 107 83 / 10 0 0 0 McKinney 106 83 106 83 / 10 0 0 0 Dallas 108 85 108 84 / 10 0 0 0 Terrell 107 82 107 80 / 10 0 0 0 Corsicana 105 81 104 78 / 10 0 0 0 Temple 105 78 104 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 108 81 109 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION...Hernandez  524 FXUS61 KBGM 230612 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 212 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... PoPs were increased and brought farther south Monday afternoon into the Twin Tiers and portions of NE PA as coverage of lake effect/lake enhanced showers is often underdone by the NBM. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A broad upper level low moving over the region is expected produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms early this week before moving away from the area Tuesday. 2) High pressure builds in for a brief lull in wet weather Wednesday, then additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to return Thursday into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A broad surface low centered near Georgian Bay early this morning will be gradually lifting northward toward the Ontario/Quebec border. As it does so, it will continue to drag a frontal boundary east-northeast across the CWA through the morning hours with a round of showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder before reaching the Hudson Valley region by the early afternoon. As the winds become more westerly in the wake of the frontal passage and an upper level low drops south over the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon, additional isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can pop up, especially across CNY and toward the Finger Lakes. 0-6km shear increases late this morning into the afternoon ranging from 30 to 45 knots with about 500 to 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and about 300 J/kg of MLCAPE. Steep low-level lapse rates will be accompanied by mid- level lapse rates of 6-6.5 C/km. All of this combined with afternoon daytime heating means there is an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm risk where a few storms popping up could produce hail and locally damaging winds. SPC has a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) across the entire area for today. Model guidance does show that a brief break in shower activity is expected this evening as a dry slot develops, then as the upper low settles overhead tonight, some spotty showers can make a return late. The upper low will be bringing in some noticeably cooler air with it as 850mb temps fall as low as +7 to +10C Monday morning. With the cool air aloft and a west to northwest flow in place, additional lake effect/lake enhanced rain showers are expected to develop Monday, especially during the afternoon. The NBM tends to be underdone with coverage of showers in this set up, so shower chances were added farther south through the Twin Tiers in the afternoon. As the upper low lifts NE Tuesday, some spotty showers can still linger, especially downwind of Lake Ontario, before dry conditions return. Highs today will be in the 70s areawide before cooling down into the 60s and low 70s tomorrow. Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure briefly builds in Tuesday night into Wednesday with dry conditions. Then Thursday into Friday, model guidance suggests a similar pattern to this weekend setting back up with a potential low moving up from the south and another upper trough pushing in from the west that would bring the chance for additional showers and thunderstorms. Some model guidance and ensemble members lean toward the activity moving in more toward the afternoon hours on Thursday, so this is something to monitor in the coming days. As of now these features appear to be more progressive and look to move out of the region by next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A line of showers, with associated CIG/VSBY restrictions will press slowly through the area from west to east during the early morning hours. This could bring occasional MVFR/MVFR Fuel Alt restrictions as it moves through. RME and BGM may see a period of IFR CIGs around daybreak ( approx 09-13z) and into the early morning hours. After the initial trough passage, more scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop late morning and into the afternoon hours. Included PROB30 groups for a chance of tsra at our NY TAF sites (mainly 16-21z today). Outside of the showers and isolated thunderstorms, CIGs are expected to rise and scatter, back to generally VFR by 17/18z as some drier mid level air works into the region. VFR conditions are then expected to prevail over the area this evening into tonight, as the lake effect rain bands stay just north. southeast winds 5 to 15 kts early this morning are forecast to turn west-southwest later today and increase between 8-20 kts over the area. Winds then diminish below 10 kts heading into this evening. Outlook... Monday...Scattered showers at the Central NY terminals with associated restrictions possible. Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DK AVIATION...AJG/MJM  601 FXUS61 KRLX 230614 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 214 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes from the last forecast package were made at this time. The only slight difference was that there is less of a chance for precipitation and thunderstorms for today. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A stretch of dry weather settles into the region alongside a brief cool down in temperatures. 2) The next real chance for shower and thunderstorm activity is Thursday associated with a frontal passage. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... In the wake of cold frontal passage this morning northwesterly flow bringing in an abundant of dry air aloft along with surface high pressure building in will provide quiet weather to the area for the rest of today and possibly through midweek. A nice cool down period will commence as well as dew pints only climbing to the 60s during the daytime and 50s during the overnights which will promote dry and cool days through midweek. During the daytime, highs will stay well below seasonable for this time of year and the region will mainly be dry for the most part. Daytime highs will return to around normal after midweek. KEY MESSAGE 2... The next chance for shower or thunderstorm activity will be on Thursday as another broad low pressure system traversing across the Great Lakes bringing unsettled weather to the region. This feature will drop in a cold frontal boundary through the area and will slide through into Friday. It is a little too far out to determine the severe threat, however forecast soundings indicate weak instability and shear so the severe parameters are not impressive as of now. One thing there is an abundant of is moisture and long skinny CAPE along with high DCAPE values and PWATs, therefore the environment might support the threat of flash flooding although after the aforementioned dry spell it would take a lot to cause issues unless we get hit with strong to severe storms which will likely cause heavy downpours. If areas were to get repeatedly hit and exceed flash flood guidance then there could be issues with flood prone areas. We will have to monitor the situation to get a better grasp on the threats, if any, from this main feature for Thursday. A very subtle short wave may bring diurnal chances for shower/storm activity on Friday during the daytime as well as on Saturday as another subtle shortwave crosses the region, however chances remain very low at this time. A weak disturbance is then forecast to impede the area on Sunday keeping low chances for precipitation and/or thunderstorm activity on the table through Sunday. Temperatures will rebound during this time frame for the weekend to about the climatological norm and southwesterly flow will pump moisture back into the region allowing dewpoints getting back to the 70 degree mark or slightly above for the weekend bringing back summertime conditions. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Cold frontal passage is taking place and the front will exit by the mid morning. This feature is promoting surface flow and stronger flow right off the surface both enough to deter much fog formation. Not to mention low clouds lingering along and ahead of the front that is bringing down a few sites to MVFR/IFR such as CKB/EKN/BKW which should only last through the morning. Once any lingering CIGs and patchy fog lifts after 13Z, VFR will dominate the rest of this period until tonight when valley fog is expected to develop under calm and clear conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions from fog and low stratus may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 08/23/26 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M H L H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M L H M M M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H L M M M M L M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M L M M M M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H M M L H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR conditions possible in low stratus and fog Monday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JZ AVIATION...JZ  770 FXUS64 KMAF 230617 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 117 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 115 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Hot temperatures continue through midweek with little to no chance of rain. - Drink plenty of fluids and seek shade frequently as heat illnesses due to prolonged exposure to heat may occur. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 115 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Running out of ways to say it's going to be hot. Mid and upper ridging will continue to strengthen and center overhead over the next few days. This will bring a peak to the current heat wave early this week with nearly everyone over the 100 degree mark, outside of the mountains. The Heat Advisory will continue for the northeast zones today and will most certainly be extended in time as temperatures will only get hotter Monday/Tuesday. The heat risk remains in the "extreme" category so take precautions and limit time outdoors, especially in the afternoon. Precipitation chances remain nil the next couple of days. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 115 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The ridge will begin to weaken slightly and shift west Tuesday/Wednesday, but not before another couple of very hot days. Northwesterly flow will develop aloft allowing storms that develop over northern NM to move toward the area late Wednesday. Confidence is slightly higher for more widespread coverage of storms so rain chances have increased to 30-40% for SE NM and the northern Permian Basin. More storms are possible Thursday which could keep temperatures under 100 for some locations, but won't pull the trigger on that yet. Drier conditions return late week with temperatures remaining well above normal. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in weak return flow, w/a few high clouds. A few high-based cu are anticipated beginning late Sunday morning invof KMAF/KHOB. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 104 77 105 76 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 102 74 104 74 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 103 75 103 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 101 75 102 74 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 94 70 96 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 101 72 103 72 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 95 64 96 63 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 102 76 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 101 77 102 76 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 103 75 104 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Borden-Howard- Mitchell-Scurry. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...99  766 FXUS65 KGGW 230617 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 1217 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing risk for severe thunderstorms today and this evening bringing strong winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall. - Cold front tonight will bring gusty NW winds on Monday. - Warm and dry conditions resume Tuesday as the western ridge rebounds. && .DISCUSSION... WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper ridge over eastern Montana overnight will move east today while an upper trough moves in from the Pacific NW tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will move through the forecast area today as the ridge axis moves east and a weak shortwave ahead of the upper trough moves through the ridge. Ample midlevel monsoonal moisture will begin streaming into eastern Montana and with high PWATs possible, some storms could produce heavy rain. The upper trough will knock down the ridge tonight with another round of storms. Strong winds aloft will increase vertical wind shear and coupled with moist, unstable air will bring increased severe risk. Any storms that develop may produce damaging winds and large hail. All thunderstorms have lightning, which may pose a risk of fire starts. Gusty southeast winds overnight will diminish this morning which will allow the Lake Wind Advisory to expire 3 AM. Cold front moves through the area tonight and will bring gusty NW winds on Monday with cooler temperatures. A Lake Wind Advisory may be needed for Fort Peck Lake on Monday. Ridge rebounds starting on Tuesday in the wake of the departing trough to bring dry conditions with temperatures slightly above normal. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Made tweaks to PoPs and thunder chances today and tonight. No other changes to NBM. Confidence for storm chances is high today and tonight, though timing, severity and exact location of strongest storms remains uncertain. && .AVIATION... UPDATED: 0600Z FLIGHT CONDITION: VFR most of the time. areas of MVFR to IFR in stronger storms. DISCUSSION: Varying amounts of mid and high clouds are expected today and tonight. Showers and isolated thunderstorms move east across the region this morning. A break in the storms is expected this afternoon. After 00z this evening, scattered shower and thunderstorms will move east through the area tonight. Some storms today and tonight could become severe with large hail and wind gusts to 50 knots. WINDS: East to SE at 5 to 15 knots most of today becoming variable late this afternoon and remaining variable at 10 knots or less tonight. Any thunderstorm that passes over TAF sites could have strong, erratic wind gusts. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory until 3 AM MDT early this morning for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield- McCone-Petroleum. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow  759 FXUS66 KOTX 230617 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1117 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lingering thunderstorms over Northeast WA and North ID through Sunday morning. - Breezy winds across the Basin on Sunday. && .SYNOPSIS... A weather system continues to impact the region through Sunday morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms producing gusty outflow winds, along with breezy winds and low relative humidity expected. Sunday will remain breezy and dry, but cooler. Temperatures will warm again at the start of next week with breezy conditions returning by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today: The Low will be passing through the North Idaho into Alberta. There is still enough instability to generate showers and occasional isolated thunderstorm over Northeast WA and North Idaho through the morning. These areas have a round 10-30% probability of thunderstorms. The thunderstorm threat will diminish through the afternoon as the system continues eastward. The system will bring gusty winds across the Basin with gusts in the 20-30 mph range. Winds will be breezy through the day before declining by the evening. Highs will be cooler with a range of upper 70s to 80s expected. Monday through Saturday: A ridge will build into the region along the Continental Divide while a trough digs in off the coast. A similar pattern will be setting up from this past weekend. The ridge will be in place for a couple of days leading to dry, warm pattern. Highs will climb back into the 90s. Moderate HeatRisk will return for most lowland locations on Tuesday. The trough begin to push into the region on Wednesday and slowly track East through the end of the week. Ensembles have weak instability over the Cascades, northern mountains, and the Idaho Panhandle. Precipitable water amounts are 0.5-0.75 of an inch. These areas will likely have isolated showers with an occasional lightning strike. NBM has around a 10% probability of lightning. Winds will increase through the Okanogan Valley and Waterville Plateau with gusts in the 20-30 mph range. While it does not bring in a meaningful amount of rain, the trough will drop highs back into the 80s through the end of the week. /JDC && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFs: Lingering instability and an incoming system continue chances for isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the into Sunday morning. Greatest risk will be over Northeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. Winds will remain elevated overnight into Sunday morning as the system tracks inland with gusts into the mid 20-30 kts. Smoke from the Cascade fires will continue to impact KEAT at times. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low confidence for TS at terminals but moderate confidence for outflow winds to impact most terminals with speeds of at least 20-30 mph. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 58 80 53 86 55 93 / 30 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 58 79 52 86 55 93 / 50 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 50 76 45 86 49 93 / 30 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 61 85 56 92 61 98 / 30 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 51 78 43 86 46 93 / 20 30 10 0 0 0 Sandpoint 55 76 46 82 50 90 / 50 10 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 54 76 51 84 54 91 / 50 10 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 55 84 52 89 57 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 63 82 61 87 64 92 /0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 55 83 53 88 57 93 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning until 11 AM PDT Sunday for Selkirk Mountains of Northeast Washington (Zone 700). Red Flag Warning until 5 AM PDT Sunday for Eastern Columbia Basin -Palouse -Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone 701). Air Quality Alert until 2 PM PDT Monday for Central Chelan County-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County. Red Flag Warning until midnight PDT tonight for East Portion of North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan National Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696)-East Washington North Cascades (Zone 698)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Highlands and Kettle Mountains (Zone 699)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703). ID...Red Flag Warning until 11 AM PDT Sunday for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101). && $$  842 FXUS63 KABR 230620 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 120 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 40-50% chance for showers and thunderstorms during the day today across south central SD, expanding over north central SD to northeastern SD/west central MN this evening into the overnight. - There is a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) across central SD and a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) over much of northeastern SD this evening. The main concerns will be golf ball size hail, wind gusts exceeding 60 mph, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall. - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather Monday night. Threat include one inch hail and 60 mph. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 119 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the 50s with winds out of the northeast to east at less than 10 mph. Winds are expected to move around to be out of the south to southeast after sunrise. There is a 35-50% chance of some showers in central SD early this morning which will move east across the forecast area throughout the day. Our next chance for precipitation will be today with showers starting in south central SD this morning. The NAM Nest is the most excited about this event as it keeps showers and storms in south central SD until mid afternoon while most other CAMs have a bit of a dry spell during the late morning into the afternoon. The next round moves into north central SD later in the evening, generally after 7 PM CDT. These will move in a generally east to southeast direction, spreading into northeast SD through the late evening and into the overnight hours, potentially even into the early morning hours for east central SD (around Watertown). There is a Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) across central SD and a Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) across most of northeast SD with main hazards of 1.5 inch hail, wind gusts of 60-70 mph, and brief heavy rainfall. MLCAPE Sunday evening is around 1000-1200 J/kg, increasing to about 1500 J/kg Monday, where there is also a Marginal Risk with hazards of 1 inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts. Storms Monday look to last into the early morning hours of Tuesday. An area of high pressure moves in for the middle of the week and storm chances return for the end of the week into next weekend. Temperatures still remain around average for this time of year with highs in the upper 70s to 80s. Not really anything in the way of smoke is expected for the next couple days. Winds across south central SD could be a little stronger today, gusting up to 30 mph at times. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this evening. Thunderstorms may impact KPIR early this morning and KMBG/KPIR this evening. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...20  830 FXUS63 KGRR 230619 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy & Cooler Today; Isolated Shower Possible - Dry Monday/Tuesday, Turning Wet Wednesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Breezy & Cooler Today; Isolated Shower Possible We'll be west of a departing low pressure system today as cold air advection occurs over the region and boundary layer mixing should bring down 25-30 mph wind gusts to the surface. This cool NW breeze will only yield max temps in the upper 60s to low 70s today, below normal for the third week in August. CAMs are trying to spit out a few rogue showers today, mainly across central Lower MI, though these would be minor given decreasing low level moisture and pathetic ELs. Not expecting lightning in this activity today. Most areas will not get rained on. - Dry Monday/Tuesday, Turning Wet Wednesday The early week period looks tranquil with lighter winds as upper heights build and partly to mostly sunny skies will dominate. The next feature of interest is an upper trough that arrives Wednesday during peak heating. ECE ensemble members are sold on 1000+ MUCAPE across the region by afternoon/evening ahead of this feature, most of which should be realized as surface based instability at this point. GFS model soundings indicate moistening soundings during the afternoon and night hours Wednesday as surface dew points try to get into the 60s. Deep layer shear does not look very good with maybe 25 kts or so, thus only quasi-organized convection is likely, but trends will be monitored as we get closer. Best chance for rain looks to be 18z Wednesday through 06z Thursday. Can't rule out some leftover/lingering showers or scattered storms on Thursday mainly across mid Michigan and points east. Just depends on how fast the upper trough moves, but there is time to watch. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 104 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Another breezy day is in store for the terminals with gusts around 25 kts expected after 15z. SCT to BKN cloud bases of around 5k ft are likely, and a widely scattered shower may impact mainly LAN and JXN especially closer to 18z and beyond. PROB30s will properly capture this threat. Not expecting TSRA given decreasing moisture and instability across the region. && .MARINE... Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The forecast is unchanged for today with winds and waves remaining hazardous to small craft and hazardous swim conditions for the beaches. Expecting 4 to 6 ft for all areas with NW flow of 15 to 25 knots and some gusts to 30 knots possible. These winds and waves will not subside until this evening into tonight. After today, waves may reach 2-3 ft on Monday with a further diminishing into Tuesday. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ037-043-050- 056-064-071. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hoving AVIATION...Hoving MARINE...Hoving  118 FXUS64 KSHV 230623 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 123 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 123 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Oppressive heat will continue today through much of the coming work week, although afternoon temperatures may trend slightly cooler (near or below 100 degrees) by late week. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible today generally south of I-20, before a cluster of storms slide southeast and possibly affect portions of Southern Arkansas and Eastern Louisiana Monday morning. - Considerable cloud cover from these storms Monday should yield slightly cooler conditions over much of Southern Arkansas and Northcentral/Northeast Louisiana. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 123 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The convective cluster that affected much of NCntrl and Ern AR Saturday afternoon/evening continues to weaken as it pushes through SE AR/NCntrl MS attm, although the latest sfc obs and mosaic radar imagery indicate an extensive outflow bndry extending from Wrn Bowie/Cass and Ern Marion Counties in NE TX to near the I-20 corridor of N LA, with accompanying weak forcing aloft associated with the shortwave impulse sinking S into the Lower MS Valley and the Gulf Coast states providing enough large scale forcing within a still moderately unstable and moist air mass characteristic of MLCapes of 1500-2000 J/kg and PW's of 1.8-1.9 inches to produce isolated convection near and just S of this bndry. This should persist through the overnight hours and may linger into the morning after daybreak, with the short term progs suggesting that this bndry becoming stationary later this morning somewhere over E TX/N LA, and could serve as a focus for additional isolated convection this afternoon mainly S of I-20 across E TX/N LA, especially as another weak mid level shortwave impulse sliding SE around the Ern periphery of the NM/W TX upper ridge potentially enhances convection development once heating is maximized. One fly in the ointment though is the potential for elevated cigs that the progs want to hang on to across much of the region through at least the afternoon near and ahead of this mid level impulse, which may tend to result in slightly cooler temps than what was observed Saturday. However, also considering the possibility for localized compressional warming near and just S of the aforementioned sfc bndry, which would be enhanced especially should breaks in the cigs occur and if they diminish entirely. Given the higher sun angle and trends in recent days, have played the pessimist and bumped up max temps 1-2 degrees this afternoon, but should see enough mixing given the very dry/parched grounds such that heat indices should again range from 105-110 degrees areawide once again. A few locales may exceed the 110 degree heat index threshold for an Extreme Heat Warning should temps get hotter than forecast or mixing is not as pronounced, but the extent of elevated cigs today provides enough confidence to refrain from upgrading the Heat Advisory to a Warning through early this evening. While locally gusty winds will be possible this afternoon and evening from the isolated convection, mostly quiet conditions are expected for much of tonight, although our focus will turn upstream over Nrn AR later tonight as a weak shortwave trough will traverse SE through the Ozarks into the Mid-South region, which should focus more organized clusters of convection over this area as they slide SE into Ern AR/Nrn and Wrn MS. Storm organization should increase late with the development of a 30-40kt SWrly LLJ, with the potential for at least a portion of this convection possibly affecting areas of Srn AR/NCntrl and NE LA by/after daybreak through early to mid-afternoon. Did expand slight chance/chance pops farther W into Srn AR/N LA from the previous forecast/NBM, with the thickening convective debris likely also influencing the max temp forecast for these areas as well, resulting in cooler (sub 100 degree) temps especially E of the I-49 corridor, thus ending their string of consecutive 100 degree days. While the existing Heat Advisory will need to be extended into Monday, have punted this decision to the day shift as a portions of the Ern zones should be able to be omitted from the Advisory given the cooler temps/thickening cigs. Unfortunately, this should be short-lived as the cigs thin during the evening/overnight hours, and upper ridging begins to expand back E into the region. With the oppressive heat returning areawide Tuesday, it's likely that a Heat Advisory will again be needed areawide, although the influence of the ridging will begin to weaken by mid and late week as the ridge center begins to retrograde back W into the Desert SW. Thus, max temps should gradually retreat a bit away from the century mark except possibly over E TX, with a more unsettled NWrly flow yielding the potential for isolated to scattered convection by late week for at least the Ern half/two-thirds of the area. Depending on the strength of the perturbations in the NW flow, convection development may expand farther W as the ridge weakens, which may result in cooler temps here as well as the potential for much needed rainfall. However, this NW flow regime will also yield the potential for isolated strong/severe convection during the afternoon/evening given the persistent extreme heat and instability present. 15 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 123 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 For the 23/06Z TAF period, VFR conditions will prevail outside of widely scattered convection that may continue through the overnight into the predawn hours. Isolated convection to redevelop during the afternoon hours mainly around LFK. However, coverage looks to be too sparse to mention in the TAFs at this time. Light/variable winds overnight to become near 6 knots on Sunday and again relax to around 3 knots after 24/00Z. /05/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 123 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening for isolated strong storms that may produce locally gusty winds across portions of East Texas and North Louisiana south of I-20. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 78 100 79 101 / 0 10 10 0 MLU 75 95 75 99 / 10 40 20 10 DEQ 73 99 72 104 / 10 20 10 0 TXK 76 100 77 102 / 10 20 10 10 ELD 75 96 75 100 / 20 30 10 10 TYR 80 104 79 104 / 0 0 10 0 GGG 78 104 79 104 / 0 10 10 0 LFK 77 102 77 101 / 10 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...05  081 FXUS65 KBOI 230623 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1223 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and strong thunderstorms in south-central Idaho through this evening. Isolated showers and weaker thunderstorms elsewhere in western Idaho until sunset. Clearing in eastern Oregon. - Gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph from thunderstorms in south- central Idaho through sunset. - Dry and slightly cooler Sunday, then several degrees warmer again Monday with a chance of afternoon thunderstorms in southern areas. && .SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday Night/... Issued 213 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026 At 1 PM MDT scattered showers and thunderstorms were already underway in Owyhee and Twin Falls Counties, moving northeast. These will increase in coverage the rest of the afternoon and early evening, particularly in eastern Owyhee and Twin Falls Counties where monsoon moisture still exists. Meanwhile, a Pacific cold front has developed a band of light rain showers and isolated thunderstorms in Baker and Malheur Counties. The front and the showers/storms will move eastward into Idaho this afternoon and evening and help enhance the thunderstorms in south-central Idaho. Cooler and drier air will come in from the west overnight and Sunday, but a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms will develop again in Twin Falls County Sunday afternoon. Monday looks several degrees warmer again as an upper trough exits east, replaced by a weak upper ridge over Oregon. Mid-level moisture will again increase and lead to a 15 to 30 percent chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms in southern areas, while northern areas stay dry with increasing clouds in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/... Issued 213 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026 Troughing off the shore of Washington and Oregon will keep most monsoonal moisture east of our area. This will keep mostly dry conditions across the area, with a low chance (under 15%) of afternoon showers and thunderstorms across our far eastern zones. Otherwise, breezy conditions will set in with a slight cooling trend. Temperatures come Tuesday will be around 5-10 degrees above normal, cooling to near normal come Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday through Monday/... Issued 1222 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026 VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue early this morning mainly in SW Idaho. Thunder capable of brief heavy rain and erratic outflows to 25-35 kt. Surface winds outside of storms: Variable 5-15 kt, except W-NW 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt between KONO and KBKE until 12z. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 10-25 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: SE 5-10 kt, becoming W-NW after 10z. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....CH SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....NF  677 FXHW60 PHFO 230629 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 829 PM HST Sat Aug 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Trade winds will continue to strengthen slightly tonight as Tropical Storm Moke moves generally from east to west, south of the islands. This system will deliver periods of rainfall to all islands from late tonight through Monday, with the heaviest rainfall forecast along windward and southeast slopes of the Big Island. A Flood Watch goes into effect for the Big Island at midnight Saturday night. A Wind Advisory is in effect for parts of the Big Island and Maui County through 6 PM HST Sunday. Drier trade wind weather will return Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE... This evening's IR satellite imagery loop shows an area colder cloud tops associated with Tropical Storm Moke southeast of the Big Island. However, the storm has become a bit more disorganzied compared to 24 hours ago. This deterioration appears to be due, at least in part, to persistent southwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air. According to the 5 PM HST NHC advisory, the center of Moke was around 360 miles south southeast of Hilo and moving west at 14 miles per hour. Trade winds have increased to moderate to locally strong this evening, and will continue to edge higher tonight into Sunday as Moke passes south of the state. The Wind Advisory looks on track for select wind prone zones in Maui County and the Big Island. Winds in these zones have been averaging sustained 25 to 30 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph. A deeper push of moisture is still expected to reach eastern portions of the Big Island later tonight with shower coverage on the increase. Expect some heavier activity to become embedded in the showers, esspecially on Sunday. The Flood Watch for the Big Island looks to be in good shape, beggining later tonight and continuing through Monday afternoon. It will not take a significant amount of rain to cause flash flooding due to saturated grounds from recent heavy rain. The deeper push of moisture will then push accross the remaining smaller islands midday Sunday into Monday, but with less intense rainfall than expected on the windward and southeastern sides of the Big Island. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 321 PM HST Sat Aug 22 2026 Satellite imagery shows Moku weakening this afternoon as dry air and vertical wind shear take a toll. Winds have not officially decreased, but it looks like that may be happening soon. It was centered around 380 miles SE of Hilo as to 3 PM HST. Otherwise, isolated light were moving across northern sections of the Big Island. Other areas were dry. Trade winds were averaging 10 to 20 mph with gusts 20 to 35 mph. Depending on exactly if or how much Moke weakens over the next 12 or so hours, the surface pressure gradient is expected to tighten up and strengthen winds up to advisory criteria in some areas of Big Island and Maui County. Winds in the lee of the Kohala Mountains may approach wind warning criteria, and winds in the lee of the Ko'olau and Wai'anae mountains on Oahu may approach wind advisory level Sunday. These areas will be watched closely to see how the forecast evolves. Winds are forecast to begin a gradual weakening Sunday night into Monday, and a return to more typical trades is expected by Tuesday. We have maintained the forecast of rainfall amounts. The latest GFS is trending slightly down, but the EC has trended up. Mesoscale models show a slightly later arrival time. There is sufficient uncertainty to make keeping things steady the most appropriate forecast at this time. Flooding rains remain possible on Big Island. Eastern Maui will be monitored closely. Other areas seem unlikely to experience flooding rains apart from isolated training effects that may develop. A Flood Watch for the Big Island will go into effect tonight and continue through Monday afternoon. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, locally up to 15 inches are possible over the windward and southeast slopes of the Big Island. It will not take a significant amount of rain to cause flash flooding due to saturated grounds from recent heavy rain. Moisture will remain above normal Monday as Moke moves west away from the area. Showers will continue, mainly windward and mauka. By Tuesday, drier air will move in from the east, and typical trade winds/showers are forecast for the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION... Trade winds are continuing to strengthen across the state as Tropical Storm Moke approaches and passes south of the Big Island this weekend. Trades will continue to strengthen from east to west through Sunday. Showers will primarily impact windward and mountain locations providing occasional MVFR conditions to those areas. Windward Big Island could see periods of heavy rain and IFR conditions starting early Sunday morning from Tropical Storm Moke. VFR is expected to prevail elsewhere. AIRMET Tango is in effect for low level turbulence downwind of terrain. AIRMET Sierra will likely be needed for windward Big Island when showers start moving into the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 321 PM HST Sat Aug 22 2026 Trades are strengthening in response to Tropical Storm Moke passing south of the islands and the Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through the weekend. Breezy trades then persist well into next week as high pressure remains anchored along 30N. Surf along E and SE shores gradually builds in response to strengthening trades and short period fresh swell emanating from Tropical Storm Moke. The direction of this swell will transition to S and then SW as Moke advances west. A High Surf Advisory (HSA) may be needed for the SE shores of the Big Island tonight into Sunday, but at this time it appears surf will fall shy of the HSA threshold. Surf along S shores remains slightly below the summer average but still slightly elevated through the weekend due to a small, long period SW swell. A series of long period S swells arrive during the middle of next week bumping surf to around the advisory threshold. A small medium to long period NW swell originating from Hurricane Lala provides elevated surf along N and W shores this weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 321 PM HST Sat Aug 22 2026 Trade winds continue to increase tonight. The inversion will steadily weaken and erode as deep moisture associated with TS Moke moves into the area tonight into Sunday. Heavy rain is expected over windward and SE facing slopes of the Big Island on Sunday. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Kahoolawe- Kohala-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-South Haleakala-Windward Haleakala. Flood Watch from midnight HST tonight through Monday afternoon for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island Summits-Kohala-Kona. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel. && $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...Thomas DISCUSSION...Parker AVIATION...DT MARINE...JVC FIRE WEATHER...Parker  680 FXUS62 KTAE 230629 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 229 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Daily chances of showers and storms will continue for the next several days. Overall, rain chances are lowest for today, then increase through the workweek. The strongest storms are expected to produce wind gusts of 40-60 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rain. - Hot temperatures combined with just enough humidity are expected to result in peak heat index values of 108-112F this afternoon across portions of the Florida panhandle and big bend, prompting a heat advisory in those areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 For today, some drier air will make it into our northernmost areas, which will knock a few degrees off the heat index values there this afternoon. In terms of thunderstorm chances, there is still some discrepancy in the hi-res guidance regarding coverage of storms during the afternoon hours. If storms can get going, then there will be strong instability and some mid-level dry air to work with for some strong wind gusts in the strongest storms. The SPC has a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms over a large portion of the area for this afternoon. Otherwise, it will be quite hot with many areas in the mid to upper 90s. Somewhat drier air is expected to limit most heat index values to below 108F, but one exception is expected to be across portions of the Florida panhandle and big bend close to the coast and in the Apalachicola National Forest. In those areas, a heat advisory is in effect this afternoon for peak heat index values of 108-112F. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Heading into the workweek, we'll have a large ridge over the southwest US with weak disturbances riding up and around the ridge. This kind of northwest flow regime aloft can lead to rounds of more organized clusters of showers and storms moving into our area. Thus, rain chances will gradually increase to near or above seasonal normals, but the exact timing of these disturbances is hard to pin down. If organized clusters of storms develop, then the chances for strong to potentially severe storms would increase. We'll have to watch for this potential on Monday in particular. Summertime heat and humidity will continue to roll along with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the 100-110 range each day, hottest across Florida. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 108 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Some IFR ceilings are possible overnight, but confidence isn't super high to include for now. Amendments are possible through dawn. Isolated showers and storms are in the forecast with PROB30s now in the TAFs at all sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Gentle to occasionally moderate southwesterly flow will continue over the waters for the next several days. Scattered showers and storms are possible each day, mainly in the overnight and morning hours, decreasing in the afternoon. The main exception will be for any clusters of storms that move off the coast this week during the late afternoon or evening hours. Seas will remain around 1 to 2 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Generally light west to southwest transport winds will continue through the next several days. Dispersions will remain good overall each afternoon, though pockets of high dispersions are possible near the I-75 corridor Monday into Tuesday as mixing heights increase. Isolated storms are possible today with increasing coverage ofstorms again Monday and Tuesday. Gusty, erratic winds and dangerous lightning strikes will be possible. Some drier air moves into the area today before moistening back up again Monday into Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall over the next several days. If the storms are slow-moving, then they could produce several inches of rain in a short period of time. This would lead to some nuisance to isolated flash flood concerns, particularly is low- lying or poor drainage areas. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 98 75 95 73 / 20 20 70 40 Panama City 94 79 92 77 / 20 10 40 40 Dothan 97 74 95 72 / 30 20 60 30 Albany 97 73 95 72 / 20 20 40 30 Valdosta 97 74 96 72 / 20 20 60 50 Cross City 93 74 94 73 / 50 10 30 10 Apalachicola 92 79 91 77 / 20 10 30 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today to 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ012>015-027-112-114-115-118-127- 326-426. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM....DVD AVIATION...Reese MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...DVD  706 FXUS63 KBIS 230629 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 129 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low to medium chances for showers/thunderstorms move over the area at various times late tonight through Sunday night, possibly lingering over parts of the area into Monday. - A few storms may be strong to severe in western and central North Dakota Sunday into Sunday night, and central and eastern North Dakota on Monday. - Near to slightly above average temperatures remain in the forecast through the upcoming week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The near-term forecast remains on track. It is looking increasingly likely that showers and storms will hold off in western North Dakota at least until closer to sunrise Sunday morning. UPDATE Issued at 919 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A quiet evening continues and the forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The ongoing forecast looks good at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Current surface analysis places broad high centered over southern Manitoba into the eastern Dakotas, while a low is starting to develop to the lee of the Rockies. Upper level analysis places high over New Mexico, with ridge running northward generally to the lee of the Rockies. Over our area, light winds remain over most locations, though are becoming southeasterly and increasing over our southwest in response to the developing low. For tonight, surface high pushes east with south-southeasterly winds on the increase, particularly over western areas. On Sunday, south-southeasterly winds will continue over the area resulting in increasing low-level moisture and higher humidity values. Of note will be increasing instability values over southwestern into south central North Dakota, with some guidance noting CAPE values exceeding 2000 J/Kg, though guidance is keeping deep layer shear marginal and also possibly capped given the possible limited heating due to mid-level cloud cover. Therefore, will keep severe threat marginal at this point focused mainly over the southwest/south central. As we get into Monday night, the next thunderstorm threat pushes in from Montana late as another short wave makes its approach, again posing a marginal severe threat. Chances then spread east through the day on Monday as the wave and surface trough/front slide easterly. Again, guidance is suggesting elevated instability as we get into primarily central/eastern North Dakota with marginal shear, but then timing of this system comes into play. Therefore, will continue to focus on the marginal threat. On Tuesday, western ridge remains in place but a very compact short wave/low slides down the face of the ridge, but at this point only looks to graze our northeastern areas. Therefore, most locations are expected to remain mild and dry, though some precipitation chances will be in place mainly around the Turtle Mountains. Ridge to the west slowly creeps east and remains the dominating factor keeping temperatures near to above average through the remainder of the forecast, though a few waves pushing through do bring occasional precipitation chances. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase from west to east Sunday morning through Sunday evening. A few storms could be severe, particularly in southwest and south central North Dakota from mid afternoon through early evening. If a storm moves over a terminal, IFR visibility and strong wind gusts can be expected, with large hail and MVFR ceilings possible. A few showers and storms could linger into the overnight hours or re-enter western North Dakotalate Sunday night. Outside of showers and storms, VFR conditions are expected. Southeast winds around 10-20 kts from Sunday morning onward. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...Hollan  540 FXUS64 KCRP 230628 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 128 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 125 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM - Major to Extreme risk of heat-related impacts continue into next week with peak afternoon heat indices around 110 - Daily elevated fire weather conditions over the Brush Country && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 125 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 High pressure continues near the Four Corners region, shifting slightly to the south/southeast through the week. This will keep our days very hot and dry through the middle of the week. Guidance continues to come in lower than expected for the next few days, so have blended the NBM with the most recent maxT observations. This increased the forecast temperatures to closer values to what we have been seeing. With these higher forecast values, elected to issue a Heat Advisory for today from noon to 8 PM. Winds will also be fairly light today, which will lead to a moderate to high WetBulb Globe Temperature today. This will be especially important for those working outside to consider: spend a maximum of 2 hours outdoor, with at least 4 breaks per hour. Remember to stay hydrated, check those backseats, and avoid long exposure in these temperatures. For more information be sure to check out weather.gov/heatsafety. Late next week, guidance is hinting at the potential for a disturbance to sneak around the eastern periphery of the ridge. This could combine with some returning moisture to provide some relief. We will keep our fingers crossed, but this is still far enough out that we are not holding our breath. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 125 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions expected to persist through the TAF cycle. There is a 35-45% probability of brief MVFR VSBYs and CIGs at VCT and ALI early Sunday morning after 08Z. S-SE winds 10-15 knots gusting to around 20 knots expected Sunday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 125 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Light to moderate (BF 2-4) onshore breezes will continue through the period, with occasional fresh (BF 5) breezes possible during the late afternoon/evening hours, especially south of Port Aransas. Seas are expected to remain around 2-3 feet. Rain chances will remain near zero through the middle of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 125 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ERC values are in the 75-89th percentile, with low humidity, dry to critically dry fuels, and hot temperatures, leading to elevated fire weather conditions over the Brush Country and portions of the Coastal Plains. Conditions will need to be closely monitored as a few locations across the Brush Country could even see critical fire weather conditions into next week. Considered an RFD for today; however, the winds should remain low enough to forego this. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 99 76 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 104 76 103 76 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 107 77 106 77 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 104 74 104 74 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 92 80 92 80 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 105 75 105 76 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 103 74 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 91 81 91 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ230>234-241>247-342>344-346-347. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LS/77 AVIATION...TE/81  924 FXUS64 KHUN 230631 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 131 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 641 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - A few thunderstorms may impact the western portion of north AL this evening. Brief strong wind gusts and frequent lightning will be the primary hazards. - There are low to medium chances of thunderstorms for much of next week. However, timing and impact confidence remains low at this time. && .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms was dropping southeast through southwest TN into northern MS and will clip northwest AL between now and 10 pm. A few of the CAMS suggest a further east progression as well. Since the airmass is a bit drier and less unstable over the TN Valley with dew points in the 60s to lower 70s, a weakening trend may develop with time. The primary hazard from these thunderstorms will be gusty winds and frequent lightning. Late tonight, a clear to partly cloud sky is expected with lows in the mid 60s northeast to around 70 southwest. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Sunday will be a sunny and less humid day as high pressure expands into the OH and TN valleys from the upper Midwest. Highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90 with dew points falling into the lower to middle 60s. Northwesterly flow at 5h will bring a series of weak disturbances southeast Sunday night into Tuesday. A pronounced low to mid level theta-E gradient and convergence zone will lie from MO through northeast AR into northern MS into western AL during this time, keeping our are susceptible to at least low chances of showers or thunderstorms. These would be higher based/elevated in nature. The chances will be greatest (30-50%) on Tuesday. Highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90 with lows mainly in the 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 We will continue to be in a northwest flow regime aloft for most of the long term period. However, by Saturday, this pattern begins to break down as the upper trough to the north/northeast flattens and the upper ridge over the Desert Southwest flattens as well and pushes farther east into the ArkLaTex. A lingering surface boundary will also persist over the Southeast into Thursday before what looks like a reinforcing cold front swings through. By late week and into the first part of next weekend high pressure builds over the Appalachians and Ohio Valley. Overall, highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s will be common through the period. In addition, the above pattern will lead to daily chances of showers and storms from Tuesday through Thursday at least. Expecting lower chances come Friday/Saturday. The best chances look to be during the afternoon and evening hours, during peak heating when storms can take advantage of the greater thermodynamics in place. Ample instability in addition to bulk shear between 20-30 knots, 0-3km lapse rates between 7-8 deg C/km, along with DCAPE around or above 1000 J/kg, will warrant us keeping an eye on the forecast for at least strong to severe downburst potential Wednesday and Thursday. As has been the case recently, the main hazards are likely to be damaging winds, frequent lightning, and perhaps some hail (but freezing levels may be too high). As for heavy rain and flooding concerns, this will need to be monitored as well, since most PWATS are generally between 1.7-2.0 inches Tuesday through Thursday. These values are between the 75th and 90th percentiles when compared to BMX Sounding Climatology, which means that showers and storms will be efficient rainfall producers. Stay weather aware especially if you work outside or have outdoor activities and check back for forecast updates! && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 131 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Sfc observations suggest that a weak cold front will continue to track southward thru the TN Valley early this morning. Although a few light SHRA may sporadically develop in the vicinity of the front, chances for impactful precipitation are too low to include in the TAFs attm. Otherwise, satellite data indicates that a broken layer of mid-level As will expand eastward thru sunrise, providing VFR cigs ~10 kft. However, this cloud deck should rapidly disperse after 12Z, with only a few fair-weather Cu and few Ci expected during the day. The coverage of high-lvl clouds in NW flow aloft will begin to increase this evening, perhaps becoming broken by the end of the TAF period. Sfc winds will range from 340-020 at 5-10 kts today, but should veer to NE and diminish after sunset this evening. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...17 SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM...17 AVIATION...70/DD  851 FXUS64 KOUN 230630 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 130 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 128 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Excessive heat continues through the weekend and into next week. - Isolated to scattered rain/storms are possible most days with the primary hazard being strong winds. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Sunday) Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Upper ridge will build ever so slightly further east today and with expanding low level thermal ridge, much of the area will climb well above 100 degrees today. Southwest Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas will be near record heat at 110-115 degrees. This will require an upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning for those areas eastward along the Red River. Although lighter winds will be a limiting factor, the very hot conditions along with afternoon RH values below 20% and very dry vegetation will result in elevated fire weather conditions across portions of western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Will issue a Fire Danger Statement for these areas for today. Elsewhere, a shortwave trough will move across the Central Plains into the Ozarks region today. Although anticipate much of the associated precip to remain to our north and east, some may skirt far north central Oklahoma late this afternoon. This along with the associated cloud cover may keep north central Oklahoma from reaching 100 degrees this afternoon. An extension of the shortwave along with some low level convergence along a residual boundary across northwest Oklahoma may allow for an isolated afternoon thunderstorm there as well. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Afternoon High Plains convection will make a run at northwest Oklahoma this evening, most of that is expected to dissipate as we go through the evening, although developing low level jet may keep activity going a little further east than many of models indicate. Some of the latest HRRR runs suggest this. As we go through the night llj veers to the west and a rather deep layer of warm advection develops, once again across mainly eastern half of Oklahoma. May see activity again develop near of just east of I-35 corridor and then shift east into eastern Oklahoma Monday morning. Models are still showing a shortwave trough coming out of the High Plains on Monday with an associated surface low developing in the eastern Texas panhandle or western Oklahoma. This low will then track east across Oklahoma near of just north of the I-40 corridor along with a weak surface surface boundary. Veered low level flow along and south of the boundary will set up a "pre-frontal torch" type scenario with record heat across the south on Monday. Temperatures may approach 115 degrees in southwest Oklahoma and north Texas. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will likely develop in these areas as well. Much like Sunday, a limiting factor will be the wind speeds which are not overly strong, but still some 10-20 mph sustained with gusts 20-25 mph will be problematic. At least a Fire Danger Statement will be needed and a Fire Weather Watch/Red Flag Warning may need to be considered. As the upper ridge retrogrades ever so slightly we see a couple of shortwaves drop southeast out of High Plains late Tuesday and Tuesday night. These should provide better precip chances to portions of western and northwestern Oklahoma during this time frame. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 As the second shortwave moves across the area on Wednesday, not out of the question to see a few widely scattered showers/thunderstorms. Latest medium range model runs of both the GFS and ECMWF show the upper ridge drifting further southwest as we go through the second half of the upcoming week. This will allow modest northwest flow to continue through the end of the week and possibly into the weekend with periodic shortwave troughs traversing the Southern Plains and at least some rain chances continue. With this retrogression of the upper ridge, it should allow temperatures to cool from the peak of the heating that will be see earlier in the week. However, it still appears that above normal temperatures will continue. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1005 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Mid/High clouds with VFR ceilings. The storms in western north TX are expected to not affect KSPS after 06Z but will continue to monitor radar trends and add a mention if needed. Otherwise, some models are showing a low chance for isolated/scattered showers/storms in parts of OK starting Sunday evening. Outflow boundary(ies) will cause shifting/gusty winds. Otherwise winds will generally be east to southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 103 77 105 75 / 10 10 10 0 Hobart OK 109 80 109 76 / 0 20 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 109 82 111 80 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 105 73 102 70 / 10 30 0 10 Ponca City OK 95 71 97 72 / 10 30 10 0 Durant OK 106 79 108 80 / 0 0 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005-006-009>012-014>020-023>032-040>042. Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ021-022-033>039-043>048-050>052. TX...Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...25  050 FXAK67 PAJK 230631 AAA AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Juneau AK 1031 PM AKDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .UPDATE...Aviation update for 06z TAF issuance. && .AVIATION.../Through 0z Monday/...The remnants of a front continue to bring CIGs of around 1500 ft to the far southern panhandle as of 00z. A majority of the panhandle however is still seeing VFR conditions due to the relatively high overcast. Overnight, low VFR conditions are expected to prevail with CIGs dropping to around 3000 ft and lower scattered layers continuing to filter through. Some prefrontal showers have been observed dropping Yakutat down to IFR briefly due to significant drops in both VIS and CIGs before rebounding back to VFR. Through Sunday morning, starting around 12z, conditions are still expected to begin to decline in earnest as an unseasonably strong front approaches the panhandle. This front is expected to bring periods of heavier rainfall throughout much of the panhandle, but will particularly be ramping up for the southern panhandle by 00z Monday along with some gusty winds. Conditions in the northern panhandle are expected to stay mostly VFR with periods of MVFR as the initial front moves through, while the southern half of the panhandle can expect MVFR to IFR conditions with periods of VIS down to 2 to 4 SM and CIGs as low as 700 ft. The exception for the good conditions up north will be Yakutat and the northeast coast which could see periods of IFR conditions, primarily due to low CIGs, before winds shift more offshore and the low continues moving southeast in the gulf. Southeasterly winds blowing up through Clarence Strait will be the strongest as this front moves through, so Ketchikan will most likely see gusty winds increase through Sunday evening. Other locations up north may see some blue skies peaking out and sea breezes increasing after the front, but these would likely be weak and showers may still bring periods of MVFR conditions through Sunday night. && .PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT...402 PM AKDT Sat Aug 22 2026 SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - Moderate to heavy rain for Ketchikan and Metlakatla possible Sunday evening and overnight. No flooding is expected a this time. - Confidence is moderate on location of heaviest rain, and strength and direction of winds in the central panhandle and Icy Strait Sunday and Monday. SHORT TERM... Somewhat impactful short term forecast, particularly for the southern panhandle, as an upper level low moves southwest of Prince of Wales Island. A surface low does look to develop in the central gulf tonight, moving near the eastern gulf by tomorrow morning. The associated warm front and cold front looks to merge into a triple point offshore of Point Alexander, with the warm sector over the southern panhandle Sunday evening. Freezing levels are expected to shoot to well over 10000 ft, and with strong moisture transport elevating precipitable water to greater than the 90th percentile for this time of year, it will result in heavy rainfall for this time of year. Rain rates during the peak could exceed 0.3 inches per hour for Ketchikan and Metlakatla, and 0.4 inches per hour for Misty Fjords and at elevation. There is some uncertainty with this system, for both how far the rain will extend northward, as well as the placement for heaviest rain. There are solutions that have the upper level low digging and strengthening down further than expected, which would result in heavier rainfall for Misty Fjords, but bring Ketchikan and Metlakatla out of the bulk of the rain. Furthermore, the warm front pushing northward could extend as far north as the Icy Strait corridor, though stronger solutions will build higher pressure in the northern panhandle, reducing the likelihood of rain. Kept chances around 60-70% for the central panhandle and 30-40% for the Juneau area. Haines and Skagway look to avoid the bulk of the rainfall, with northeasterly winds aloft causing downsloping and drying. Not expecting temperatures overnight to dip below the upper 40s for Haines and Skagway due to downsloping northerlies keeping temperatures relatively warm. While not represented in the forecast at this time, elevated CAPE and shear over the southern panhandle could lead to some extremely isolated, embedded thunderstorms. Likelihood is less than 5% at this time, but strong lift from divergence aloft and terrain could push parcels well above -20C and into lightning territory. LONG TERM... Tuesday a longwave trough will continue shifting southeast toward the west coast of Canada, carrying a weakening surface low with it. Widespread moderate to heavy rain will also break apart from north to south, leaving a short and welcome break Tuesday. Upstream, zonal flow becomes briefly established over the Gulf, with a signal for a shortwave trough digging down from the south- central coast. These features will carry west-northwest onshore flow and some moisture into our area; however, deep moisture will likely shear apart before reaching the Panhandle, limiting heavy rainfall potential into mid week. Anticipate low clouds and more typical rainfall, with the farthest reaches of the northern Panhandle likely enjoying drier conditions. Near the end of next week ensembles show agreement on a larger system moving into the Gulf, bringing increased chances for heavier rain and elevated southeasterly winds along our coast into the weekend. AVIATION.../Through 0z Monday/...Conditions continue to be up and down through Saturday as the remnants of the front over the southern panhandle continues eastward into BC. A majority of the panhandle is now seeing VFR conditions due to the broken nature of the CIGs, though the occasional dips to MVFR are still possible through the evening. Ketchikan and Klawock have held onto MVFR CIGs through much of the day, with periods of heavier rainfall currently bringing VIS down to 3 SM in Ketchikan. Overnight, low VFR conditions are expected to prevail with CIGs sitting around 3000 ft and low scattered layers continuing to filter through. Through Sunday morning, starting around 12z, conditions are expected to begin to decline again as an unseasonably strong front moves into the panhandle. This front is expected to bring periods of heavy rainfall and gusty winds throughout much of the panhandle, but will particularly be ramping up for the southern panhandle through the end of the current period. Conditions in the northern panhandle are expected to stay mostly VFR with periods of MVFR as the initial front moves through, while the southern half of the panhandle can expect MVFR to IFR conditions with periods of VIS down to 2 to 4 SM and CIGs as low as 700 ft. Southeasterly winds blowing up through Clarence Strait will be the strongest as this front moves through, so Ketchikan will most likely see gusty winds increase through Sunday evening. Other locations up north may see some blue skies peaking out and sea breezes increasing after the front, but showers may still bring periods of MVFR conditions through Sunday night. MARINE... Outer Waters: A low pressure system moving from the Alaska Peninsula into the Gulf this evening will cause a wind shift from southwesterly to southeasterly. Winds will pick up to 15-20 knots and seas will build to 5-6 feet by Sunday morning, affecting ocean entrances and northern outer gulf zones, particularly from Cape Spencer to Cape Suckling. A weak barrier jet along the NE Gulf coast is also expected to intensify briefly early Sunday morning. As the low tracks further south into the Gulf, winds will shift to northeasterly throughout the day Sunday. By Sunday evening, northeasterly winds out of Cross Sound and Southern Chatham Strait are forecast to build to 10-15 knots. From Sunday evening into Monday morning, winds around the Dixon Entrance area will strengthen to 25-30 knots with gusts up to 35 knots, pushing seas to 8 feet. Conditions will ease through the day Monday as winds subside and turn northerly to northwesterly. Inner Channels: Driven primarily by the pressure gradient as the low pressure system approaches the panhandle, winds across the northern inner channels will turn northerly by Sunday morning and strengthen to 15 knots by the afternoon. There is high confidence that elevated winds will impact the Clarence Strait to Sumner Strait region between Sunday evening and late Monday morning, with Clarence Strait seeing gusts up to 30-35 knots through Sunday night. Although model guidance varies, with the NAM favoring a slower, stronger system that pushes higher wind speeds northward into Frederick Sound, while other models keep stronger winds to southern areas, current thinking is that the most significant winds will affect mainly the Sumner Strait southward. Seas in Southern Clarence Strait are forecast to build to 8 feet during the passage of this system before subsiding through Monday as winds diminish. Elsewhere across the inner channels, winds are expected to remain around 5 to 10 knots on Monday generally from the north to northeast. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036. && $$ UPDATE...STJ SHORT TERM...NC LONG TERM...AP AVIATION...ZTK MARINE...BAS Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  201 FXUS61 KBUF 230633 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 233 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Fine-tuned lake effect band placement for tonight as well as Monday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Showers and thunderstorms today, with a few potentially strong to severe. 2.) Cool, upper level low to bring lake effect rain this afternoon through Tuesday night. Cool tonight through Monday night. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Showers and thunderstorms today, with a few potentially strong to severe. This early morning a surface low is near eastern Georgian Bay, with a cold front draped across WNY. A southerly flow ahead of the cold front will become more southwesterly behind the frontal passage for today. Aloft a closed and negatively tilted mid and upper level low is centered over the Central Great Lakes, with water vapor imagery displaying a shortwave trough diving towards Lake Superior. For today overall severe threat is marginal, with SPC outlining our entire region with a marginal risk. MUCAPE values range 500 to 1000 J/KG ahead of the cold front, with DCAPE values peaking around 1200 J/KG this early afternoon east of Lake Ontario. This front is expected to clear our eastern zones by mid afternoon. Flow through the lower levels is moderate with 0-6 km effect bulk shear values reaching 45 knots...which suggests any stronger storms building within a layer with increasing low level lapse rates of 6.5 to 7.0 C/Km could bring a few strong to damaging wind gusts...for which a marginal risk for severe storms is in effect, especially for our eastern zones. The increasing lapse rates with the approach of the cool upper level low could also yield large hail with any taller storms. Key Message 2...Cool, upper level low to bring lake effect rain this afternoon through Tuesday night. Cool tonight through Monday night. Behind the cold front, an early taste of fall tonight through Monday night as a cool upper level low rotates across our region. Temperatures at 850 hPa will plummet towards +7 to +8C across the warm eastern Great Lakes. This will generate a lake effect rain response with the cool air flowing over the very warm lakes. Initial moist cyclonic flow, combined with the approach of a shortwave trough from the Upper Great Lakes will bring both lake enhanced as well as upslope rain showers east of both eastern Great lakes. A southwest flow tonight will lift any organizing lake effect rain bands towards Buffalo and Watertown. Ahead of the closed low, a more southerly flow should push the band of rain off Lake Ontario up towards the Saint Lawrence Valley. Broken bands of lake effect rain will become disorganized through the day Monday with daytime heating and the passage of a trough. This trough could also spark a few thunderstorms through the day. Behind the trough a freshening westerly flow will bring organizing lake effect rain bands southward to areas south of Buffalo and towards the central Tug Hill Plateau. This rain will diminish Monday night off Lake Erie, and Tuesday and Tuesday night off Lake Ontario. In addition to the rain, there will be the potential for waterspouts along lake convergent boundaries with tall EL heights combined with the cool air associated with the upper level low over the warm lakes. Overnight lows will be some 5 to 8 degrees below normal tonight and Monday night, while high temperatures Monday will be some 10 to 15 degrees below late August normals. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... For the 06Z TAFS a surface low is wobbling eastward to the north of Lake Ontario, while slowly dragging a cold front across the TAF region. This will bring several rounds of showers and isolated thunder...initially this morning along the front, with more widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms in the late morning and early afternoon towards the east where limited daytime heating should yield enough instability to bring scattered coverage to storms. Early morning stratus IFR clouds across the Southern Tier are expected to lift with daytime heating. Expect largely MVFR to VFR ceiling heights through the early afternoon hours, with brief IFR/MVFR visibilities in any stronger downpours of rain. Behind the front, cool and moist cyclonic flow will bring rain showers and MVFR to IFR flight conditions to the TAF sites east of Lake Erie that will likely persist through the remainder of tonight. Much of the lower flight restrictions will be ceiling based. Additional plume of lake effect rain is expected off Lake Ontario, near KART later tonight. This plume may be better organized along the longer fetch of Lake Ontario such that IFR/MVFR visibilities will be possible for KART. Outlook... Monday...Periodic showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms with associated MVFR/IFR, with mainly VFR expected outside of any precipitation. Monday night through Tuesday night...Lake effect rain, mainly east and southeast of the Lakes with associated restrictions diminishing off Lake Erie Monday night and Tuesday and off Lake Ontario Tuesday and Tuesday night. Otherwise mainly VFR. Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Thursday...Mainly VFR, except MVFR/IFR conditions possible from scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Behind a cold front passage today, an upper level low will bring an early taste of autumn with a brisk west wind developing within a decently strong pressure gradient and moderate instability over the Lakes. While initial southerly flow Sunday should bring Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions to the lakes Sunday, the southwest flow under the upper level low Sunday night through Monday night, and then westerly flow Tuesday, will likely continue the choppy waters on the Lakes with SCA likely. In addition to the brisk winds, there will be the potential for waterspouts with the development of sizable lake-induced instability as cool air associated with cyclonic flow around the upper-level low crosses the warm lakes. The waterspout threat should continue through Tuesday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through Tuesday evening for NYZ001>007. Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through late Monday night for NYZ010-019-085. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LOZ042>044. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LOZ045. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thomas AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...Jaszka/Thomas  008 FXUS62 KJAX 230631 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 231 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Isolated Strong to Marginally severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and early evening north of I-10. Primary threat is strong wind gusts, up to 60 mph. - Strong storms, with isolated severe storms on Monday fallowed by daily scattered to numerous afternoon thunderstorms each day this week. - Moderate Afternoon Rip Current Risk through the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Highlights through Tonight: - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms south of I-10 this afternoon - Isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorm this evening for southeast GA. The early morning satellite analysis shows the predominant upper level trough axis shifting offshore this morning, with dry northwesterly upstream pushing edging south of the Altamaha river. Derived precipitable water in the drier airmass is ranging from about 1.25-1.5" which equates to about the 10th-25th percentile. As that dry air pushes southward, deeper moisture will be pooled south of I-10 this afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop within and along the edge of the moisture axis during the late morning hours (after 10 AM) with additional waves of convection through the afternoon. Some warming air aloft will keep instability in check this afternoon across NE FL but a few stronger storms, capable of strong gusts, may develop along the pinned Atlantic sea breeze in St Johns and Flagler counties this afternoon. Some training may occur but generally southwesterly storm motion of around 10-15 mph should limit the potential for substantial flooding. Though the dry air will limit much convection throughout the afternoon north of I-10, the latest HiRes ensemble guidance indicates leftover moisture from an ongoing MCS over the lower Mississippi river valley may be enveloped by the westerly flow aloft and transported into SE GA early this evening. This will give a late day window for isolated convection to develop despite the lower level dryness. The interplay between the increase instability and dry air may support strong to severe microburst activity (winds 40- 60 mph) with isolated convection in the SE GA vicinity this evening. The Storm Prediction Center has kept a "Marginal Risk" of severe storms north of I-10 given this potential wind threat this evening. Activity will wane by midnight with dry conditions through the early morning hours Monday. Temperatures will soar into the mid and upper 90s across SE GA this afternoon but drier air will keep heat index generally in the upper 90s and low 100s this afternoon. Though temperatures will be a few degrees lower in NE FL, the moisture in the air will make it feel like 100-106F this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Increase in showers and storms with return of moisture, higher chances heading into midweek. Moisture steadily increases across the area as a trough digs across the southeastern CONUS. PWATs will trend upwards, with values near or above 2", as the mid to upper level trough brings a frontal boundary to skim north of the area over central GA. Light southwesterly flow will persist through the forecast period, with the Gulf breeze steering convective activity from southwest to northeast. With the increase in moisture and forecasted DCAPE values >=1000 J/kg, there will be the potential for some wet downbursts with any storm that develops during the afternoon to evening hours on Monday and Tuesday. Chances of showers and storms increase on Tuesday as coverage of higher PWATs spreads across the area. A bit warmer temperatures on Monday as daytime highs will sit near the mid 90s for most locations. Tuesday, with higher chances of precipitation and cloud cover, a bit 'cooler' temperatures as highs sit in the lower 90s. Overnight lows in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Active weather continues past midweek of the upcoming week Southwesterly flow persists through midweek as a trough remains across the area, with chances of showers and storms in the 25% to 65% each afternoon as shortwaves along the trough will likely bring the chances for stronger convective activity. Will continue to see the Gulf breeze push inland each afternoon, and increase activity near the I-95 corridor as the breezes meet. Highs each afternoon will rise into the 90s. Tropics Outlook: NHC has a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation mid to late week across the central Atlantic. Locally, rip current activity could become more enhanced late week depending on the evolution of this system. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Predominantly VFR conditions persist with localized light fog possible at inland terminals, especially in the northern Suwannee Valley and southeast GA. A weak stalled front will be across southern GA today, keeping prevailing winds around 5-10 from the West-southwest. Westerly flow will be strong enough to keep the sea breeze from reaching the I-95 corridor this afternoon. Drier air will initially limit shower and thunderstorm potential along and north of I-10 this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are still possible (30-40%) chance at KGNV and KSGJ from around 15z this morning to 21z this afternoon. There may be a short window for VCTS at KSSI this evening but confidence is low of direct TSRA impacts. Fair, VFR conditions after 02z-03z this evening. && .MARINE... A stalled front near the Georgia coastal waters will linger through Monday before dissolving through the week. Main maritime concern will be increasing potential for afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day during the upcoming week. The steering winds will generally move thunderstorms from the shoreline toward the offshore waters during the evening hours. Outside of thunderstorm influences, low to calm seas and light offshore winds persist. Rip Currents: Surf/breakers will remain 1 to 2 feet through early next week in the mainly offshore flow with overall low rip current risk, but brief periods of moderate risk will exist during the afternoon hours as local onshore sea breeze develops each day. && .FIRE WEATHER... West to southwesterly flow continues Today and into midweek across most locations, with east to southeast winds across coastal locations during the afternoon hours as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland. Drier air will bring lower humidity and mostly dry weather during the morning to early afternoon hours across southeast Georgia Today, with showers and storms possible during the late afternoon to early hours, while scattered to isolated afternoon showers and storms will continue across northeast FL. Moisture levels begin to increase next week, with chances of showers and storms increasing through the week. Hotter temperatures Today and Monday will increase mixing heights across southeast GA, with locally high dispersion Monday afternoon. Fog Potential: Significant fog is unlikely, and any strong wind will be associated with nearby thunderstorm activity. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 97 72 96 73 / 10 20 20 20 SSI 94 76 95 76 / 20 10 20 20 JAX 94 74 96 74 / 30 10 30 20 SGJ 93 75 95 76 / 30 10 10 10 GNV 93 73 95 73 / 30 10 20 10 OCF 92 73 95 73 / 40 10 20 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$  400 FXUS63 KMQT 230635 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 235 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong winds and high waves over eastern Lake Superior are creating dangerous rip currents and swimming conditions along the beaches of Marquette County eastward today; a Beach Hazard Statement is in effect. - Spotty light lake effect rain showers/sprinkles are possible over the east half today. - Seasonable temperatures are expected through the week with the exception of slightly below normal temperatures today and tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 With cold air advection from Canada bringing delta-Ts into the mid- teens Celsius today, expect lake effect cloud cover and rain showers to develop over the eastern half of the U.P. as stout high pressure moves in from the west with time. While the cooler air moving in from Canada today will keep highs a little bit lower than yesterday, temperatures should still get up into at least the 60s across the area with the south central potentially getting up to around 70F. The cold air advection will work to create strong winds and high, short-period waves over southeastern Lake Superior today. Thus, expect dangerous rip currents and waves along the nearshores from Marquette County eastward today; stay safe and out of the water today as the swimming conditions are potentially life-threatening! While the high pressure moving in will bring an end to the lake effect rain showers/sprinkles over the east half by this evening, with antecedent cooler air still overhead and clear skies tonight, expect low tonight to potentially drop into the 40s to potentially 30s over the interior areas; for some of the colder spots, cannot rule out some patches of frost as we see one of our first tastes of Fall this year. Expect a return to generally near normal late-Summer temperatures for the rest of this week as a more active period of high pressure ridging followed by a subsequent shortwave low is in store for the rest of the week. Thus, near normal temperatures and dry conditions on Monday give way to slightly above normal temperatures by Tuesday as well as rain showers and thunderstorms, before more normal temperatures are seen over the U.P. once again by the end of the week; another weaker shortwave low may bring additional showers and potentially a thunderstorm over the area behind the main low for the mid-week before drier conditions are seen once again by the end of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period for CMX and IWD. As temperatures drop aloft lake effect clouds and showers will develop over Lake Superior early this morning, potentially impacting SAW during the morning into the early afternoon. CIGs at SAW will be borderline VFR/MVFR during this time and likely fall to MVFR in any showers that impact the site. Confidence is still low on coverage and timing so kept the mention to a prob30. As mixing increases through the day expect winds to gust as high as 25kt at CMX/SAW from mid morning into the afternoon. The low level will stabilize around sunset with wind falling below 10tk. && .MARINE... Issued at 235 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Lake Superior - N to NW winds of 20 to 30 knots continue over the lake today, especially over the east half where a few gale force gusts up to 35 knots could be seen from time to time along the shoreline from Marquette to Grand Marais, Michigan (NBM shows up to 60% chance). As high pressure builds in from the west today into tonight, expect the winds to weaken slightly as they back more towards the NW (20 to 30 knots over the east half). The winds continue to slowly weaken on Monday before dropping to 20 knots or less again by Monday evening. With a Clipper low approaching for the mid-week, showers and storms return to Lake Superior by Tuesday afternoon, with winds increasing from the S at 20 to 25 knots over at least the eastern half of the lake by Tuesday night. While the winds weaken to around 20 knots or less by Wednesday, shower and storm chances continue through the mid-week as a weaker shortwave rolls into the region via rotating around the Clipper. As cold air advection behind the Clipper and high pressure ridging return to the area towards the end of the week, expect the winds to pick up from the NW again by Thursday; as of right now, the NBM has around a 50% chance for low-end gales between Stannard Rock and the Marquette County shoreline during the daytime on Thursday. With high pressure ridging returning by Friday, expect light winds of 20 knots or less to return to the lake by then. Northern Green Bay and Northwestern Lake MI - N to NW winds of 20 to 30 knots continue today via cold air advection moving overhead as high pressure trudges in from the west. While it does take awhile, expect the winds to die down to around 15 knots or less again late on Monday as the high's center passes through the area. However, don't expect the calmer waters to last all that long as a Clipper low approaches the area for the mid-week. Thus, we can expect S winds to gust up to 20 to 25 knots again Tuesday evening and Wednesday as the low approaches. In addition, rain showers and thunderstorms return to the area late Tuesday night and remain until Wednesday evening. While some calmer seas could be seen Wednesday evening, with the cold air advection behind the Clipper moving in on Thursday, expect the winds to pick back up to 15 to 20 knots from the NW again as some showers and storms could be seen once more during the daylight hours. High pressure moving in from the west late this week brings winds back down to 15 knots or less Thursday night into the end of the workweek. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for MIZ005-006. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TAP AVIATION...NL MARINE...TAP  360 FXUS65 KBOU 230634 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1234 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 FXUS65 KBOU 222347 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1250 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms through Thursday. A risk of a couple severe storms each day. - Temperatures settling back closer to (but still above) normal for Tuesday and Wednesday. - Gradual drying end of next week, with a trend to more summer heat through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/... Issued at 1249 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Satellite and radar shows pretty healthy convection developing across the Front Range Mountains and Foothills, while the airmass is still somewhat stable (per ACARS and SPC analysis) but increasingly moist over the plains. The increased moisture on the plains is being reinforced by a couple westerly moving surges, and dewpoints have held in the upper 50s and lower 60s east and north of Denver. The latest surge coming back through Elbert County will likely boost values over the Palmer Divide this afternoon, especially as we develop a surface cyclone in vicinity of Douglas or western Elbert County. That will aid moisture convergence and potential for convective initiation there, along with a risk of a landspout. Otherwise, stronger storms today will be capable of hail and strong winds, along with locally heavy rainfall as precipitable water (PW) values climb to 150-170% of normal and low level moisture remains abundant over the plains. As per typical, we still think the highest threat of strongest storms would be along/east of the convergence zone associated with the developing cyclone and points northward along/just east of I-25 - essentially covering all of the plains. A couple severe storms are likely due to MLCAPE increasing to 1200-2000 J/kg. Bulk shear is weak and less than 25-30 kts, however, so majority of the severe storms would tend to be pulse (brief). Storm motion will be rather slow at 15 mph or less given lack of flow aloft, which will lead to at least some minor flooding threats in a few spots. Overall progression will eventually be to the east across the plains into late evening, with potential for a generally weaker subsequent batch or two of storms behind the initial stronger ones that would have access to more instability. We still expect some gradual clearing overnight, but patchy stratus/fog possible across the plains given the very moist airmass. On Sunday, there is some drying noted as flow aloft turns a bit more westerly. However, we're not convinced we'll erode all the low level moisture across the plains. Even in the mountains we'll still see enough to spark scattered thunderstorms, and then those storms will likely intensify as they move onto the plains as they encounter a richer, more unstable airmass. Bulk shear profiles are still marginal, but a couple severe storms will be possible given sufficient MLCAPE of 1000-1800 J/kg. Similar weather conditions will likely persist into Monday with little change in the overall pattern, moisture, and instability profiles. Temperatures will be rather warm yet, with highs in the 90-95 degree range over the I-25 Corridor and plains. There is better agreement of a weak backdoor cool front or two for Tuesday and Wednesday, offering up a few degrees of cooling and potentially more active weather over the Front Range and plains. Thursday and Friday are shaping up to be transition days into a drier and warmer environment with progressively less storm coverage, especially by Friday. Ensembles are consistent showing a return of summer heat for next weekend, with highs pushing into the mid 90s (30% chance of upper 90s) for the I-25 Corridor and plains as a stronger zonal flow aloft develops. That would also lead to increasing fire danger as we begin our journey toward autumn breezes. Unfortunately, temperatures will feel more like mid summer and humidities will drop in the drier westerly flow. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday/... Issued at 1144 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 While the majority of showers and storms have subsided late tonight, the latest radar scans show a strong storm currently over the Palmer Divide southeast of all Denver TAF sites. While this storm isn't expected to directly impact the TAF sites, there is potential we see a southeasterly outflow make it to the TAF sites in the next few hours. Will continue to monitor and AMD if this is expected to occur. Winds have finally transitioned to a more drainage flow, with a few 20-25 kt gusts currently observed around the KDEN airfield that should gradually diminish over the next hour. We should see drainage winds turn clockwise through the morning, becoming NE for the afternoon before showers and storm chances will increase by 20-22Z. While there is a TEMPO in place for thunderstorms in the TAFs, there is a more likely chance that the airports are impacted by gusty outflows with shifting winds (30-40 kts), with around a 30%-40% chance for storms. While the best timing for impacts is expected to be from 21-24Z, a PROB30 is in place until 2Z as there may be some lingering showers and outflows through then. Some high-res guidance does show a few showers redeveloping between 4Z-6Z, but chances are too low to add to the TAF at this time. Ceilings should remain about the same as Saturday (8,000-9,000 feet AGL at their lowest). && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...9  479 FXUS61 KGYX 230636 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 236 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes at this time. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A cutoff low in the Great Lakes brings unsettled conditions into the start of the week with generally light rainfall amounts. 2. Mostly dry conditions through mid week with comfortable dew points. Humidity increases by late week ahead of another system. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A cut off low remains in the Great Lakes region for the next few days. Moisture continues to be drawn northward into New England, while a wave of moisture passes by offshore. This brings low level moisture, sprinkles, and intermittent drizzle through the first half of the day today, especially along the Maine coast. New Hampshire sees more of the way of breaks of sun today, especially across western areas. The warmer conditions across western NH provide more instability ahead of an approaching cold front extending from the cut off low. Given the set up, a few strong to severe storms are possible across New Hampshire today, with wind gusts and hail both a concern. The marine layer looks to limit the potential across Maine, with a gradual weakening trend expected as the storms move eastward. The front won't pass east of the area until Monday, bringing another night of low clouds, fog, and scattered showers tonight along the coast and in Maine. Lows generally bottom out in the mid 50s to low 60s across the area, with some drier air working in behind the front across western New Hampshire by daybreak on Monday. The front will likely be passing through Maine during the day on Monday. This brings a chance for scattered thunderstorms by midday, with a chance for a strong storm possible across parts of Central Maine. The front then clears the area by late in the day, with drier air working in late in the day. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Upper-level low will continue to spin through Quebec Tuesday before finally ejecting out of the area by Wednesday. Likely will have another day of diurnal clouds/brief downpours fueled by the cold pool aloft, focused in the higher terrain in the north. Dew points will remain comfortable with the westerly flow, however. On Wednesday the low loses its grip with brief height rises bringing tranquil conditions. By late week ensembles show another wave heading our way. With a developing trough to our west, likely will see southerly flow developing and returning humidity northward. Both the GFS and ECMWF fully occlude this low in Canada, similar to the previous system. However the placement of the low has trended further north up towards Hudson Bay rather than central Quebec. If this comes to fruition, it would suggest more of a glancing blow to the trough. As such expecting forcing to be a bit more nebulous, but there will still be the potential for widespread precipitation if sufficient moisture can be advected into the region. At minimum looks like a period of more humid conditions Thurs-Fri with southerly flow developing. Temperatures are lower confidence given cloud cover and potential onshore flow, but with 850 mb temps hanging out around 13- 15 C, no signs for hot temperatures. Deterministic guidance currently suggests a chance for rain late Thurs especially across New Hampshire, but Friday will probably bring a higher chance to the entire forecast area. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Marine FG/stratus lingers through late morning to early afternoon along the coast and at Maine sites with IFR-LIFR. Valley FG is also likely through mid morning. Scattered SHRA are possible. Fog scatters out as rain showers lift across the area from west to east through the day. Some improvement to MVFR and VFR is possible by evening. TSRA is possible between 2-8PM, mainly across New Hampshire terminals. Storms will be capable of locally strong winds and possible GR. IFR to LIFR is likely along the coast and at Maine terminals again tonight with marine fog and stratus likely returning. Conditions then improve to MVFR and VFR from west to east during the day on Monday, with showers and storms possible across eastern terminals Monday afternoon. Outlook: Monday night: VFR conditions expected. Tuesday: Local MVFR or lower possible in showers. Tuesday night and Wednesday: VFR conditions expected. Thursday: Mainly VFR but local MVFR or lower in showers late in the day. && .MARINE... Conditions remain below SCA levels through Monday as a slow moving cold front approaches the waters today, and passes through on Monday. Reduced visibility in marine fog is likely through midday Monday. Fair conditions then prevail through midweek as broad high pressure builds across the waters. A cold front then approaches the waters late in the week. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Barker/Clair  498 FXUS62 KGSP 230636 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 236 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes with the morning forecast package. The aviation discussion was updated for the 06Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Dry weather with more comfortable humidity returns to the region today and continues through Tuesday. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances return Wednesday and continue through the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Dry weather with more comfortable humidity returns to the region today and continues through Tuesday. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances return Wednesday and continue through the rest of the week. A deep upper trough is pivoting to a negative tilt over the OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic today, and will close off into a large upper low over the Great Lakes. This will keep a relatively dry, NWLY mid-upper flow atop the CWFA thru Monday. A sfc cold front will cross the area early this morning, ushering in much lower dewpts, as downslope and deep mixing help bring dewpts down into the 50s to lower 60s across the area. Temps will top out near normal, but it should feel nice compared to the normal humidity for late August. The dry air will keep the air mass stable, so a dry fcst is on tap. This will continue thru Monday, as little change in pattern expected. Then, Tuesday will be the beginning of a transition toward higher humidity and a gradual return of diurnal convection chances. latest guidance keeps Tuesday largely dry, then isolated to scattered convection will be possible late Wednesday aftn thru Wednesday evening, as a weak warm front brings higher dewpts in from the south and east. An upper trough digs into the Mid-MS Valley on Thursday and brings an associated cold front toward the forecast area. Guidance is in pretty good agreement on more widespread convective coverage, and NBM already has likely PoPs across most of the area. Scattered diurnal convection looks to continue Friday and into next weekend, as the front stalls out in the area and keeps warm and humid conditions in place. Overall, temps will be near to slightly above normal from Wednesday onward. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR with light wind expected thru the period. The exceptions will be KAVL and KHKY, which are likely to see some LIFR conditions due to fog and/or stratus before daybreak. Confidence in how persistent the restrictions will be is limited, as drying N winds may pick up at KAVL before 12z, and fog around KHKY looks pretty localized. As drier air spreads across the region today, no deep convection is expected, with just some high-based Cu. Winds become N to NW mid to late morning, with low-end gusts at KAVL. KAND will see a westerly wind. Outlook: No significant chance of convection until Wednesday with an even better chance on Thursday. Mountain valley fog and low stratus is possible each morning. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ ARK  729 FXUS63 KDLH 230640 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 140 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The next chance for showers and storms will be late Monday night through Tuesday. - Severe storms are possible, particularly Tuesday afternoon and evening with the passage of a cold front. - Seasonal, dry conditions return for the later part of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Surface high pressure settling into the area this morning has made good radiational cooling conditions across the Northland. Fog has already developed in a few of our more fog prone locations this morning, and we are likely to see additional development through early Sunday morning. Any morning fog will quickly burn off after sunrise on Sunday, giving way to a very pleasant and quiet late August day. The high pressure will providing mostly sunny skies and light northwest winds. Minimum relative humidity values will dip into the 30 to 40 percent range during the afternoon hours. Tonight will feature another round of mostly clear skies and chilly overnight low temperatures in the forties with a few locations possibly dipping into the upper 30s. Late Sunday night into Monday daytime, we will have a leading wave of elevated warm air advection and a warm front pass west to east across the area. Some models are producing showers and storms with it, but the low level dry air appears to be too stout to allow any precipitation to reach the ground. Also, most models are completely dry for us on Monday, and have decided to leave the forecast dry for now. I do expect an increase in cloud cover and perhaps some elevated radar echoes, but that dry air is likely to keep the low levels dry. Precipitation chances increase as the main upper level shortwave moves across the area late Monday night through Wednesday. Monday night into early Tuesday we have some elevated instability, so we will likely have some rumbles of thunder overnight, but am not concerned for severe storms. We do have an area of Marginal severe risk just to our west from SPC, but suspect this may shift farther west based on the latest models. If we get any strong storms, they would be towards Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be warm and more humid, with some surface based instability developing during the afternoon and evening hours. Then, just as the upper level shortwave moves across the area and deep layer shear parameters increase, I expect another wave of showers and thunderstorms to move through the area, which will have the potential for strong to severe storms. While things look interesting now, we will have to monitor for timing or other changes that may change this. Showers and non-severe storms will redevelop across the area on Wednesday in the cyclonic flow behind the upper level shortwave. Wednesday and Thursday will be cooler again. The cyclonic flow may help to generate isolated showers again on Thursday, though the incoming dry air may quash them. We currently have a dry forecast, but if we have a bit more moisture, that may change. High pressure and northwest flow aloft return for the latter portions of the work week, bringing a return to dry conditions across the Northland for Thursday into Friday. Precipitation chances remain below fifteen percent through the end of the period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period. The main exception is for the development of fog and reduced visibilities during the early morning hours. For now, it appears some of our more fog prone locations may dip to IFR visibilities, with MVFR/VFR elsewhere. The fog is expected to burn off shortly after sunrise. Light winds will prevail through the TAF period under building high pressure. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 140 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Northwest winds gusting up to twenty knots will ease overnight into Sunday morning over the nearshore waters of western Lake Superior, with waves subsiding to one to two feet. Winds to become light and variable during the day on Sunday as high pressure settles over the area. The nearly calm winds linger overnight before gradually turning southeast on Monday, but generally remaining under 10 knots through the day. Waves to generally be 1 foot or less Sunday night and Monday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 140 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Winds will be significantly weaker today than yesterday as a ridge of high pressure builds into the area. For most areas, even wind gusts will be less than 10 mph. Minimum relative humidity will drop a bit lower to 30 to 40 percent. A few places could dip below 30 percent. Relative humidity remains low for northwest Wisconsin on Monday, but northern Minnesota RH values will increase to over 35 percent. Winds will become southerly and may gust around 10 mph during the afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase for Monday night through Wednesday, with RH values remaining above 40 percent both days. Precipitation chances are highest along and north of the Iron Range, but most areas have at least a 40 percent chance of measurable rainfall. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LE AVIATION...LE MARINE...LE FIRE WEATHER...LE  876 FXUS62 KILM 230642 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 242 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Discussions updated. Severe weather threat for today is limited with up a few storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts this afternoon. mainly near the coast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible near the coast today. 2) Near-normal temperatures expected through the next seven days with shower and storm chances increasing mid to late next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible near the coast today. A cold front is expected to move through the area during the afternoon as a mid-upper shortwave rounds the base of a developing closed low centered over southern Ontario. This front appears to be favorably timed with the daytime heating cycle to support at least isolated to perhaps scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially as it interacts with the sea breeze this afternoon. Precipitable water values are coming down considerably from their 2+ inch values of the last few days into the 1.3-1.6" range, which is near to below- normal for this time of year, and this reduction in moisture is primarily found in the middle to upper troposphere. Thus, while low- level moisture is supportive of showers and storms by allowing for moderate to strong instability to develop, there is a significant amount of dry and subsiding air above 700mb which will undoubtedly cause many initial updrafts to struggle, with up to a few or several of the most robust updrafts overcoming the dry air. For those which can grow tall enough and sustain themselves, effective shear values of 25-30kts, DCAPE in the 1200-1400 J/kg range, and a well-mixed subcloud layer present a ripe environment for damaging wind gusts. However, the very dry air aloft will significantly limit the coverage of severe storms, thus resulting in a marginal risk (5% chance) for severe weather today. Given the reduced precipitable water values, very heavy rain rates capable of flash flooding (e.g., 2-4"/hr) are not anticipated, with mainly 1-1.5"/hr rates at the highest supporting ponding of water in typical poor drainage and low-lying problem spots. Storm motions will be mainly east to east-northeast at 15-20 kts, except where strong downdrafts produce an eastward-moving outflow boundary which could carry a storm along faster. KEY MESSAGE 2... Near-normal temperatures expected through the next seven days with shower and storm chances increasing mid to late week. An upper air pattern featuring a strong upper-high anchored over the Southwest and mean troughing over the eastern US will prevail through the period. This pattern will bring a welcomed reprieve from the recent extreme heat, with temperatures returning more to seasonable levels along with and lower humidity. Noticeably drier air and lower PWATs, potentially falling to around the 10th percentile of climatology will advect into the area for Sunday and Monday. Despite a lingering weak boundary and weak disturbances aloft swinging through the area, the dry air should limit rain chances to widely scattered showers and storms at the most, focused mainly around the sea breeze on Sunday and Monday. Moisture and instability will gradually return to more typical levels from Tuesday onward, yielding increased chances of scattered diurnal showers and storms through the remainder of the period. Storm coverage could increase to numerous or widespread at times between Thursday and Saturday as the next cold front approaches the area. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR is expected to continue at the coastal terminals through the morning hours while inland terminals carry a moderate to high chance for MVFR to IFR vis restrictions and somewhat lower confidence in LIFR cigs. Any sub-VFR restrictions that develop should lift/improve rapidly between 12 to 14z with isolated to scattered convection expected this afternoon and evening, mainly along the coast. Expect VFR conditions through the day and into the first half of the night outside of transient MVFR to LIFR vis restrictions in heavy rain. Extended Forecast... Mainly VFR with early morning fog and low stratus possible each morning. Scattered showers and storms will present a threat for transient vis restrictions near the coast today and Monday before chances increase for inland terminals from Tuesday onward. && .MARINE... Tonight through Thursday...Marine conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period. Expect generally south to southwest winds at 5-15 kts to prevail through the period with seas between 1-3 ft in the 0-20nmi zones and 2-4 ft in the 20-60nmi zones. The biggest marine impact will likely be from periods of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through this week as afternoon and evening storms move over the waters and disturbances aloft help to encourage new storms over the very warm waters. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ABW KEY MESSAGES...ABW DISCUSSION...ABW/CBL AVIATION...ABW MARINE...ABW  312 FXUS63 KJKL 230648 AAB AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 248 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Noticeably cooler and less humid air will arrive behind a cold front to start the new week accompanied with dry weather. - Chances for a few showers and thunderstorms return around midweek. && .UPDATE... Issued at 838 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026 Precip has tapered off with the exception of the far southern and southeaster portions of the forecast area, where there is still a threat of severe weather for a short time yet. The forecast has been updated for the latest trends on radar. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 250 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026 At 1845Z, satellite shows a mix of low and mid level clouds. Showers and storms have initiated to the north along a weak disturbance extending from the southern shores of Lake Erie south to the Kentucky-West Virginia line. A cold front approaches eastern Kentucky from the northwest this afternoon, driven by shortwave energy and a deepening long wave upper level trough. As daytime heating aids destabilization, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected from mid-afternoon into early evening. Looking at the 12Z RAP this evening, a representative sounding near JKL depicted an environment with strong surface buoyancy (2400 J/kg), high DCAPE (1000-1100 J/kg), and steep low-level lapse rates (0-3 km lapse rate of 7.2 deg C/km). In addition, 0-6 km bulk shear at 40 kts along with MUCAPE slightly above 2500 J/kg this will help sustain organized updrafts. With BRN shear at 18 m2/s2, the environment as a whole favors multicell clusters with some supercellular elements. High DCAPE along with steep 0-3 km lapse rates, 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear, and the approaching cold front will support damaging gusts of most likely 45-60 mph. Hail will be a secondary hazard, though several limiting factors--such as anemic updrafts from poor mid-level lapse rates (6 deg C/km) and an elevated freezing level (13,000 feet)--may cause substantial melting before reaching the ground. The hodograph remains generally straight up to 200-300 mb (9 km) followed by a directional shift to the NNW, which could eject hail embryos aloft, further limiting hail size. Hail will be isolated and could reach quarter size, but will likely remain smaller. SPC has placed all but Wayne County in a Slight Risk for severe weather. The shortwave progresses east of the CWA later this evening, leading to clearing skies and light winds. Fog should form overnight, with valleys and locations that receive rain favored for dense fog. High pressure builds into the area from the Upper Midwest on Sunday, bringing a mix of sun and clouds along with cooler weather. Dew points dropping into the mid 50s to low 60s will make conditions feel much more comfortable. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 457 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026 The long-term period opens with quiet weather Monday morning. The 22/12z model suite analysis shows mean troughing in place across the eastern CONUS around a parent ~558 dam low spinning near/over the Ottawa Valley. A smaller upstream closed ~570 dam low is transiting from southern Alberta into Saskatchewan. Meanwhile, an ~596 dam upper level high is centered near/over New Mexico. Translating down to the surface, an ~1005 mb surface low is nearly vertically stacked under the parent low between James Bay and Lake Ontario. Its cold front sweeps south-southeastward along the Carolina coast and then arcs southwest to west through the Gulf Coast states before extending back northwestward into the central Plains. Cool Canadian high pressure, cradled in the arc of the cold front, extends from northwestern Ontario to over the Commonwealth. Farther upstream, an ~1005 mb surface low is passing over southern Saskatchewan and dragging a trailing cold front through the Northern Rockies and Great Basin. For Monday through Tuesday, heights will gradually rise over the Ohio Valley as the first upper-level trough and its parent low shift away to the northeast and surface high pressure settles southeast, cresting over eastern Kentucky with PWATs close to 0.75 inches. With time, a warm front will try to ease back northward toward the Commonwealth, allowing PWATs to recover back toward 1.5 inches by late Wednesday. However, heights will fall slightly again mid- to late week as the aforementioned closed upper low over the Canadian Prairies digs southeast, opens, and reinforces troughing over the eastern CONUS for the remainder of the work week. This will support the next area of low pressure tracking into eastern Canada while its trailing cold front slides southward into the Ohio Valley Thursday into Friday. Drier weather may follow a second cold front heading into next weekend. In sensible weather terms, look for fair and cool weather through Tuesday night, with lows ranging in the 50s to near 60F and highs in the lower to mid 80s. Fog is likely in the mainstem river valleys late each night through mid-morning. Low to medium precipitation chances in the form of diurnally modulated showers and thunderstorms return on Wednesday and persist through Friday as the first cold front works through the region, before trending drier by Saturday. Look for highs ranging mainly in the mid 80s from Wednesday onward, while nighttime lows moderate into the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Clearing skies following showers and thunderstorms on Saturday has led to fog formation in many valley locations, especially south of the I-64 corridor. Some of this is dense in spots. There is some uncertainty as to how extensive it will be, with KIOB and KSYM more robustly into the drier post cold front airmass and should not be affected. The fog in the vicinity of the remaining TAF sites specially KJKL and KSJS may lift into those location as the nocturnal inversion deepens after around 08Z and the same may occur for KSME and KLOZ. LAMP guidance had IFR or lower reductions into KJKL for a few hours and briefly for KSJS. Generally included MVFR reductions for a couple of hours at KSME and KLOZ and followed this based on recent satellite trends. Fog should lift and dissipate in most location between 12Z and 14Z, with VFR conditions generally prevailing to end the period. Valley fog may again develop by the 04Z and 06Z timeframe, but this should not affect the TAF sites. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GINNICK LONG TERM...GEERTSON AVIATION...JP  419 FXUS63 KMPX 230651 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 151 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - SLight chance of thunderstorms across southwest Minnesota Monday morning - Scattered showers & thunderstorms likely Tuesday, a few strong storms possible during the afternoon/evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 143 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A cool late-sumer night is developing under clear high pressure, with highs falling into the upper 40s & low 50s across the area. Patchy fog is possible in spots through sunrise, mainly along the Minnesota River Valley & western Wisconsin. Similar temperatures to saturday this afternoon with highs again in the upper 70s, although winds will be much lighter with the high pressure overhead. The surface high begins shifting east Monday, with southerly flow returning ahead of the next weak cold front. This front looks to move through sometime late Monday into Tuesday, bringing our next chance for scattered showers & thunderstorms. Moisture return ahead of the front looks fairly limited though, and considerable spread remains within the ensemble guidance regarding precipitation coverage, so rain chances remain fairly low at this point. The first round of thunderstorms looks possible late Sunday night into Monday morning, but guidance generally keep the shortwave & bulk of the precipitation off to the west over the Dakotas. Another cold front moves through the region on Tuesday, but the general model timing brings the front through during the morning hours, which would mean that any widespread convection & appreciable rainfall could be limited. There are a few high-resolution models that are slower with the front, bringing it through during the late afternoon & evening. Should this slower timing occur, we could see a few strong or severe thunderstorms along the front with CAPE values reaching 1000-1500 J/kg during the afternoon along with 30-40 kts of deep shear. Showers & thunderstorms during the morning could always lead to reduced instability & a lower chance of afternoon storms as well. Otherwise, temperatures look to remain steady through next week with highs generally around 80 & lows in the 50s to low 60s. Ensemble guidance suggests we could get into a more active pattern over the weekend as a train of shortwaves passes over the Upper Midwest. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Mostly clear skies overnight with some diurnal cumulus developing tomorrow morning. Patchy fog & mist is possible along the Minnesota River Valley, but the chances look low enough to keep out of the TAF for now at RWF & MKT. Calm winds overnight become westerly to northwesterly tomorrow morning. A wind shift to easterly is expected tomorrow evening. KMSP...No additional concerns /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR, chc -SHRA early. Wind SW 10-20 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...ETA  667 FXUS61 KALY 230659 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 259 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across eastern NY and western New England today. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated severe thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon, with damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy downpours the primary hazards. 2) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday and Tuesday, especially near and north of I-90. 3) Chances of showers and thunderstorms return late next week as temperatures trend warmer. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Latest water vapor imagery shows our parent trough centered just north of the Great Lakes with a secondary shortwave rounding the base through the Ohio Valley. An area of rain and thunderstorms continues to push through PA early this morning ahead of the occluded boundary within a region of diffluent flow downstream of the trough. However, high res and deterministic guidance is in good agreement showing these showers/storms continuing to weaken as they advance north and eastward through sunrise as they outrun the best forcing for ascent. While a few isolated showers develop ahead of the occluded front before sunrise, the weakening area of showers/embedded storms should reach eastern NY and western New England 09 - 15 UTC this morning. The occluded boundary essentially stalls over eastern NY today with the secondary shortwave from the Ohio Valley continuing to rotate into the Northeast, reaching eastern NY by early afternoon. As stronger height falls arrive, expecting scattered clusters of showers/storms to redevelop and track from west to east. Forecast soundings and moisture profiles also show dry air surges into eastern NY/western New England this afternoon as this stronger shortwave arrives. This will help steepen mid- level lapse rates over 6C/km with DCAPE values also rising over 1000 J/kg. The incoming dry air should also help morning stratus break for sun with dew points in the mid to upper 60s supporting sfc-based instability increasing towards 1000 - 1500 J/kg per the REFS and CAMs. Given the incoming closed low, 0-6km shear impressively reaches 40-50kts and 0-3km shear 25-30kts. Despite these favorable ingredients for severe weather, clouds look to break for sun just as the stronger height falls arrive, limiting the time for the atmosphere to destabilize before convective initiates. In addition, low-level forcing is limited to a weakening warm front lifting northward along a washout occluded front. These help explain why the HREF and REFS both only show low probabilities for updraft helicity values exceeding 20m/s mainly 20 - 00 UTC. This indicates that even as isolated to scattered storm clusters initiate mid to late afternoon into the early evening hours, there should only be isolated instances of severe thunderstorms. Given weak updraft growth, there are also questions if any storms can tap into the stronger shear aloft. This matches with SPC's marginal risk (level 1 of 5) in their Day 1 Convective Outlook. Damaging winds remain the primary hazard from any severe storms that form but any storm can also produce frequent lightning as forecast soundings show sufficient instability extending into the favored -10C to -30C region likely due to the cool/dry air tracking in aloft. Storms can also produce heavy downpours given PWATs over 1". Convection dissipates by 0 - 02 UTC with clouds clearing quickly thereafter, supporting radiational fog overnight where heavy rain fell. KEY MESSAGE 2... Our mature closed low slowly propagates into southern Quebec by Monday with its cool pool extending into eastern NY and western New England. Southwest flow aloft will maintain elevated dew points in the mid 50s to low 60s with the 500hPa -15C to -18C cool pool aloft supporting steeper mid-level lapse rates 6 - 6.5C/km with morning sun contributing to SB-CAPE values reaching 500 - 1000 J/kg. As a stronger shortwave rotates around the base of the closed low late Monday morning into the afternoon, stronger forcing for ascent should support a more organized area of rain and even embedded thunderstorms tracking west to east. Given the cool pool, storms will not need to become too tall before lightning develops with any taller updrafts capable of small hail. However, forecast soundings shows low EL heights indicating low-topped convection and thus limiting severe weather potential. Winds shift westerly by Monday evening in the wake of the shortwave with cool air advection over the still warm lakes supporting a lake effect and upslope rain response. Therefore, we continue to show likely and categorical POPs in the western Adirondacks with chance POPs in the southern Greens and Mohawk Valley. Westerly flow and the trough axis/cool pool under our very slow moving closed low should maintain at least scattered showers during the day on Tuesday favored near and north of I-90. The western Adirondacks and southern Greens will likely receive the highest rainfall amounts. Instability wanes by Tuesday so any storms should be isolated. KEY MESSAGE 3... High pressure builds back overhead by Wednesday supporting pleasant and dry conditions. However, the dry break does not last long as yet another shortwave trough approaches the Northeast Thursday into Friday. Southwest flow ahead of it will allow humidity levels to rise once again with temperatures trending slightly above normal. Heights fall in response to the approaching trough and eventual cold front looks to support increased chances for showers and thunderstorms both days. However, there remains uncertainties in timing and coverage of shower/storms as there are discrepancies on the strengthen of the incoming cold front and placement of the parent trough in southern Canada. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06z Monday...Primarily MVFR conditions prevail across all terminals early this morning as low level moisture continues to increase ahead of an incoming occluded boundary. Over the next several hours, conditions should stay relatively steady, though scattered breaks in cloud coverage could result in some brief improvements in ceilings to VFR heights. Or, in the case of PSF, breaks could result in improvements from IFR to MVFR. Regardless, by about 10-13z, all sites will consistently sport IFR to MVFR conditions as low-level stratus becomes more consistent and showers begin to spread across the region. Rainfall rates in this initial round of rain will be light, so visibility is expected to remain around 4-6SM. A brief break in precipitation then comes late morning into early this afternoon before the potential for scattered thunderstorms increases later this afternoon. As confidence is not high in the exact timing or location of thunderstorms, PROB30s were included in the TAFs to highlight the period of greatest potential. Generally, the greatest probability of thunderstorms lies between 20- 01z. Once these conclude and the aforementioned boundary departs near the end of the 06z TAF cycle, improvements to the VFR category are expected. Winds will begin our of the southeast today at sustained speeds under 10kt. By this afternoon, winds will increase to around 10kt or so before the boundary shifts winds to the west and southwest. Sustained speeds will then fall back under 10 kt by the end of the period. Outlook... Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...31 AVIATION...12