807 FXUS61 KAKQ 230701 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 301 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated full discussion. No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mainly dry with seasonably warm temperatures and comfortable humidity through Wednesday. Chances for showers and storms return late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 AM EDT Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry with seasonably warm temperatures and comfortable humidity through Wednesday. Chances for showers and storms return late in the week. The vast majority of precip has moved offshore this morning with just some lingering (light) rain on the lower Maryland Eastern Shore. Otherwise, a cold front will gradually slide through the area today. There will be an initial push of drier air this morning, followed by a more substantial push late this afternoon and evening. Today will be dry for most though a very isolated sea breeze shower could develop in the Virginia Beach/Outer Banks vicinity. Have a very thin stripe of 20% PoPs in this area. Regarding temperatures, expecting it to be quite warm due to a modest downsloping effect with highs ranging from the mid 80s W to upper 80s E. Dew points should also drop from W to E and likely into the mid-upper 50s inland, but still in the 60s near the coast. High pressure sets up to our NW Monday and then drifts SE toward the local area Tuesday. Wx wise, similarly benign Monday-Wednesday with seasonably warm conditions and very comfortable humidity/dew points. There is a very low chance of an afternoon shower/storm near the Albemarle Sound Monday afternoon; otherwise, mainly dry. There will be a gradual shift toward another wetter period by the end of the week as broad troughing overspreads the eastern CONUS and the deep-layer flow becomes southwesterly. An accompanying increase in humidity is also expected. At this time, Thursday appears to be the most "active" day with showers and storms likely areawide. Daily convection chances linger, especially across the E/SE, Friday and likely into next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Sunday... Showers (w/ a few embedded storms) are clearing the area early this morning. A ~1 hr period of sub-VFR conditions is possible at SBY from these showers. Elsewhere, VFR should prevail through this morning and afternoon. Light and variable winds become W 5-10 kt this afternoon. Outlook: Dry and prevailing VFR conditions expected through the early-mid week period. && .MARINE... As of 300 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Benign marine conditions are expected today through much of the week. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail today through much of the week. A trough is pushing across the coast early this morning. There is some northerly flow in vicinity of the Ches. Bay in the wake of showers/tstms, which are now moving well offshore. Otherwise, the wind should gradually become SW 10-15kt over the next few hours. Seas are 2-3ft, with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The wind diminishes to W 5-10kt by this aftn, and a sea-breeze may develop along the coasts of SE VA and NE NC. A weak cold front crosses the coast early Monday with a brief wind shift to NW, before becoming W/SW with speeds remaining less than 10kt. Another weak cold front crosses the coast early Tuesday resulting in a brief wind shift to N ~10kt, before becoming light and variable by Tuesday aftn. High pressure settles off the Southeast coast mid to late week. This will result in S/SE flow by midweek trending to S/SW flow by late week, with wind speeds at or below 15kt. Seas are expected to be 2ft to occasionally 3ft through the week, with 1ft to occasionally 2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SW AVIATION...SW MARINE...AJZ  717 FXUS61 KLWX 230700 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 300 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added some information on the ongoing minor coastal flooding at Annapolis and the potential at a few other sensitive locations during the upcoming high tide cycle. Also, removed a key message now that storms are out of the area and we move into a dry pattern for at least a few days. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dry conditions anticipated early next week. - 2) Warmer and more humid conditions return mid-week, with thunderstorm chances returning by Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions anticipated early this week. Some upslope showers may persist on the upslope areas of the Appalachians in northwest flow today. Breezy and cooler Sunday with a few fair weather clouds being the only thing to speak of. On Monday, we are expecting a cold front to pass through our region. Behind the front, northwesterly winds usher in dry air from central Canada. These sub-60F dewpoints could persist until midweek. With high pressure building over the Appalachian Mountains, drier and cooler conditions could last until late Tuesday. Overall, we are expecting highs to remain in the 70s and mid 80s early this week. Overnight lows ranging in the 50s and 60s throughout the region. KEY MESSAGE 2...Warmer and more humid conditions return mid- week, with thunderstorm chances returning by Thursday. Beginning Wednesday, a warm tropical air mass tracks northeast over the Mid-Atlantic, bringing humidity back to summertime normals as well as a gradual increase in temperatures. A shortwave upper-level trough will begin to form over the Great Lakes region and track eastward towards the coast between Wednesday and Thursday, and this combined with the increase in heat & humidity will create additional chances for rain & thunderstorm development across the region. Model guidance continues to show only marginal chances regarding any of these thunderstorms becoming severe, with some uncertainty remaining in the overall track of this system. Current guidance suggests that this system could be slow-moving across the region, with rain chances potentially extending into the end of the week as this system slowly tracks offshore. Overall, expect increasing humidity along with a few chances for rain late next week as this system slowly tracks towards the coast. Upper-level zonal flow takes over as this trough tracks east. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Some clouds and low fog out there this morning at CHO and MRB at times. That should scour out prior to sunrise as winds begin to pick up along the cold front. Predominantly VFR conditions are anticipated across terminals through Wednesday. Winds on Sunday through Tuesday remain out of the WNW to NW, gusting up to 20 knots during the afternoon hours (except CHO which will be 5 to 8 knots lower). Periodic showers & thunderstorms could create temporarily reduced conditions at terminals during the afternoon & evening hours Wednesday and Thursday. Northwest winds shift southeasterly by Wednesday night. && .MARINE... Winds turn out of the WNW to NW through Tuesday, and should remain sub-SCA throughout that period for the most part. A few gusts near 18 knots are possible, especially further north and during the afternoon hours, but not seeing a prolonged period enough to warrant an SCA at this time. Winds shift southerly by Wednesday, with winds gusting above SCA thresholds later that evening in a classic southerly channeling event ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds could reach marginal SCA conditions again Thursday evening as a cold front passes through the region. Scattered showers & thunderstorms in this timeframe could also create locally gusty winds over the waters, perhaps necessitating SMWs. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tidal anomalies remain elevated overnight, with a Coastal Flood Advisory in effect for Annapolis. Alexandria and Havre de Grace may come close in the upcoming high tide cycle as well. As the front pushes through, anomalies will drop after the next cycle, thus reducing any coastal flooding threat over the coming days. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ014. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CJL/SRT AVIATION...CJL/SRT MARINE...CJL/SRT  707 FXUS62 KMLB 230700 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 300 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Scattered showers and storms are forecast across east central Florida today, highest near and north of the I-4 corridor. Storm hazards include frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 55 mph, and quick rainfall accumulations of 1-3". - Below normal rain and storm chances start off the work week as high pressure lifts northward towards the Florida peninsula, with a return of near normal rain and storm chances from Wednesday onward as moisture increases. - Near normal temperatures will persist through this week, but humidity will still produce peak heat indices of 100F and greater. Adequate hydration and breaks in the shade or A/C will be important for those spending extended periods of time outdoors! && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Today-Tonight...A deep mid-level trough is forecast to remain situated across the eastern US, with a shortwave rounding the trough and moving across the Florida peninsula today. At the surface, east central Florida remains sandwiched between the Atlantic ridge axis to the south and a quasi-stationary boundary draped across the southeastern US to the north. A plume of moisture will work across central Florida today, with the shortwave aloft assisting with shower and storm development along with the typical diurnal pattern. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will start late this morning near and north of the I-4 corridor, with coverage expanding southward through the afternoon hours. Activity will then shift eastward towards the coast, where additional interactions with the east coast sea breeze may support further development of activity. The highest rain and storm chances (50-60%) are focused near and north of the I-4 corridor where moisture is anticipated to be greatest today. While some hi- res guidance continues to favor this evolution of activity, it is important to note that drier air aloft could act as a limiting factor for shower and storm development. Decided to lean slightly more towards an active pattern given the mid-level support and plume of moisture present, hence the slight discrepancy in the forecast when compared to the NBM. The environment continues to look favorable for storm development, with diurnal heating increasing instability, dry air aloft supporting downbursts, and the plume of moisture supporting heavy rainfall. Hazards today will include frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts of 45-55 mph, and quick rainfall accumulations of 1-3". Westerly steering flow will keep activity moving offshore, with a gradual decline in coverage into the evening and overnight hours. Activity may even diminish slightly quicker than forecast given the earlier potential start time, and adjustments to the forecast will be made as needed depending on how things evolve today. Additional shower and storm development across the local Atlantic waters cannot be ruled out overnight, especially across the Gulf Stream waters. Outside of showers and storms, anticipate higher cloud coverage which will help keep temperatures closer to normal values today. Highs reach the low 90s, combining with humidity to produce peak heat indices of 102F to 107F. The greatest peak heat indices are anticipated across the Treasure Coast, where cloud coverage may not be quite as high. Residents and visitors are strongly encouraged to practice heat safety to avoid developing heat illness. Overnight, temperatures fall into the mid 70s. Monday-Tuesday...The deep troughing across the eastern US begins to lift northeastward and weaken, resulting in the weakeningof the surface boundary draped across the southeast US. The surface Atlantic high is forecast to lift northward in response, with the ridge axis draping across the Florida peninsula. Locally, this will result in light southerly flow both Monday and Tuesday, allowing for both easier development and intrusion inland of the east coast sea breeze. Drier air is forecast to filter across the area on Monday, with the southerly flow slowly advecting moisture back towards east central Florida into Tuesday. This drier air will result in below- normal rain chances, ranging between 20-30% on Monday and 20-40% on Tuesday. Any activity that does manage to develop will be favored in the afternoon hours, driven primarily by the sea breezes and any subsequent interactions. Storm hazards will include frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts 45-55 mph, and heavy downpours. Lighter steering flow aloft both Monday and Tuesday may lead to slow and erratic storm motions, which will also increase the potential for minor, localized flooding in some spots if showers and storms do manage to develop. Overall, weak southwesterly flow aloft will support movement towards the east coast, with activity pushing offshore through the late evening and overnight hours. Continued development across the local Atlantic waters will be possible each night, with mostly dry conditions across the peninsula. Temperatures are forecast to remain near to slightly above normal each afternoon, with highs near and north of the I-4 corridor reaching the mid 90s, with highs in the low 90s elsewhere. At this time, peak heat indices are forecast to range between 102F to 107F, remaining just below Heat Advisory criteria. Those spending extended periods of time outdoors will need to remain adequately hydrated and take breaks in the shade or A/C to prevent the development of heat-related illness. Overnight, temperatures are anticipated to remain near normal in the mid 70s. Wednesday-Saturday...Broad mid-level ridging across the Atlantic will extend towards the Florida peninsula from the middle of this week into the weekend, with the Atlantic high at the surface generally remaining in place. The surface ridge axis is forecast to stay draped across the Florida peninsula, with light southerly winds prevailing through Friday, becoming more southeasterly next weekend as the ridge axis lifts slightly northward. Daily development of the east coast sea breeze is anticipated, and when combined with the moist air mass in place, will support a diurnal pattern of shower and storm development each day. Rain and storm chances remain near normal values (40-70%), with lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours possible. General model trends favor activity diminishing into the late evening and overnight hours across the peninsula each day. Temperatures will remain near normal in the low 90s during the afternoon hours, falling into the mid 70s during the overnight hours. Peak heat indices are anticipated to remain below advisory criteria but will still exceed 100F, so heat safety will continue to be important through the remainder of the week. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast to persist across the local waters through this week. The Atlantic high lifts northward towards the waters starting Monday, causing the southwesterly winds today to become more southerly Monday onward. Light wind speeds of 5 to 10 knots during the overnight and morning hours increase to 10 to 15 knots and shift to out of the southeast during the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops each day. Seas remain generally between 1 to 3 feet, with the highest seas focused across the offshore waters. Isolated to scattered shower and storm development will be possible, with activity generally moving offshore from the peninsula each afternoon into the evening hours. Continued development overnight across the Gulf Stream waters will be possible. Storm hazards will include frequent cloud-to-water lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 30 knots, heavy downpours, and locally higher seas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 113 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Light southwesterly flow and ample moisture should combine for scattered to numerous (40-60%) storms today. Focus of highest coverage appears to be for the MCO/Orlando and Daytona terminals, and perhaps TIX/MLB. Timing for storms looks a bit earlier today, with TEMPOs for MCO beginning at 19Z. Some guidance is a bit earlier than this; will monitor trends. Activity lingers latest from MLB to SUA in the early evening before pushing offshore. As with recent days, brief IFR/LIFR and wind gusts exceeding 35 kt will be the primary risks from storms this afternoon and evening. Sea breeze remains pinned at the coast, with terminals from MLB southward briefly turning SE in the afternoon up to 10 kt. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 91 75 92 75 / 60 10 10 10 MCO 93 76 95 76 / 50 20 20 10 MLB 94 76 93 77 / 40 20 20 10 VRB 93 75 92 75 / 30 20 20 10 LEE 90 75 94 75 / 60 10 20 10 SFB 92 75 94 76 / 60 10 20 10 ORL 92 76 94 77 / 50 20 20 10 FPR 94 75 92 75 / 30 20 30 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tollefsen AVIATION...Heil  787 FXUS63 KSGF 230700 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 200 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri tonight into Monday morning. Damaging wind to 60 mph is the primary severe weather hazard, with quarter size hail being a secondary hazard. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding are also possible. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Today: Mainly looking at a dry day given a very dry airmass in place and capping, but there is a <20% chance of showers/storms this afternoon that would struggle to see noteworthy precip reaching the ground through the dry air. Highs will range from the low to mid 80s NE to the low to mid 90s SW. Afternoon dew points in the mid 50s to low 60s will prevent heat concerns. Tonight into Monday morning: As has been advertised, 1-2 mid- level waves will move through the area under NW flow aloft. A mid-level jet will develop, promoting ascent over the CWA (favoring the SW CWA at this time). The mid-level jet will also result in the development of a SE low level jet that will nose into the area. An 850mb front will also be in place over the SW CWA, oriented from NW to SE. All these features will allow for widespread elevated thunderstorms to develop, as shown by most models and ensembles. 30-40 kts of effective shear and elevated instability will allow for strong updraft development and potential for hail to the size of quarters and the greater threat of 60 mph winds given 500-1,000 J/kg of DCAPE. Greatest potential/coverage is expected later tonight into Monday morning. Another threat for tonight into Monday morning is locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Generally slow storm movement and motions parallel to the 850mb front will favor training convection. HREF LPMM is showing 3-6 inches of rain, so we will advertise that as the localized rainfall amounts under the heaviest storms. 6 hourly flash flood guidance is around that same 3-6 inch value, so only expecting isolated flooding that does not warrant a flood watch at this time. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 With the area remaining in northwesterly flow throughout the week, we'll see periodic low-end chances (15-30%) for showers/storms. Daily highs should generally remain in the mid 80s to low 90s (northeast CWA) to the mid 90s (southwest CWA). && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 For the most part, expect VFR conditions with light winds this TAF period. There is a 30% chance for showers late Sunday, with showers and storms then becoming likely after this TAF period Sunday night into early Monday. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Titus LONG TERM...Titus AVIATION...Titus  949 FXUS63 KIND 230704 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 304 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers cannot be ruled out across far northeastern counties late this afternoon into the evening - Cooler and less humid weather expected through Tuesday. - The next best chance for rain will be Wednesday evening through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)... Issued at 304 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Today through Tuesday night... Mostly quiet weather conditions are expected early in the period with surface high pressure across the region. Aloft, upper troughing to start the period will help keep temperatures cooler. Upper troughing begins to shift east with ridging building in early in the work week, but seasonably cool temperatures will persist as surface flow remains northwesterly. A few showers cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon or evening across northeast portions of central Indiana due to a weak boundary pushing through. Confidence in showers developing is low as forcing and moisture will be marginal at best. However, a few CAMs suggest the potential for isolated convection to develop so low POPs were included for far northeastern counties. Light winds and mostly clear skies are expected to promote patchy fog development both early this morning and again late tonight into early Monday morning. Any fog that develops should quickly mix out after daybreak. Surface high pressure begins to shift east Tuesday, but surface riding will continue to promote quiet weather. Wednesday through Saturday... Long range guidance depicts multiple upper level waves traversing the region towards mid-late week returning precipitation chance to the forecast. The first wave approaches late Wednesday bringing a frontal boundary into the region. Modest forcing and sufficient moisture advection ahead of the disturbance supports the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low chances for convection linger into Thursday, but this will be heavily dependent on the location of the aforementioned boundary. At this time, guidance suggest lingering low-level moisture will be in place across central Indiana supporting the potential for diurnal convection. If the front moves through earlier in the day, expect mostly dry conditions. Long range guidance generally suggest surface high pressure builds back in late week providing quiet weather. Look for temperatures to remain slightly below normal. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 110 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Impacts: - Low chance for brief fog at outlying terminals after 09Z Discussion: Mainly VFR conditions to continue across central Indiana through Sunday evening as Canadian surface high pressure advances from the Dakotas to the Midwest. Expect light northwest flow through daybreak before increasing to around 07-12 kt during the day. Fog/BR is possible at the outlying sites after 09Z. Mainly FEW/SCT decks expected today amid light to moderate northwest breezes that will gust up to 13-17KT by late afternoon, especially at KLAF/KIND. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ AVIATION...Melo DISCUSSION...Melo  954 FXUS66 KMTR 230704 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1204 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1204 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages persist within the marine layer through the next week - Warm and dry conditions continue above 1000 feet && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1204 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 (Today and tonight) Another day of the weather pattern dominated by the balance between the ridge over the Desert Southwest and the troughing over the Eastern Pacific. Today, a cutoff low moving across the Pacific Northwest is allowing the ridging to have a little more impact over central California, resulting in a compressed marine layer and a slight uptick in temperatures across the interior. Some coastal stratus development is still possible through the overnight hours, and any stratus that does form will dissipate rather early in the post-sunrise hours. High temperatures today range in the middle 80s to the middle 90s across the interior, the upper 90s into the triple digits in the warmest interior spots (especially southern Monterey County), the 70s and lower 80s near the Bays, and the lower to middle 60s along the Pacific coast. Breezy onshore winds are expected in the afternoon and evening along the coast and through favored gaps and passes. Regarding conditions near the Timber Fire, the compressed marine layer will lead to warm and dry conditions in the higher elevations where the fire continues to actively burn. Light northeast winds in the morning will shift to a southwest flow in the afternoon and evening hours. Smoke transport will be inhibited by the marine layer inversion into the morning, resulting in the potential for reduced visibilities in the immediate area, while winds aloft will transport smoke northeastward towards Salinas and Hollister. For air quality information, refer to products issued by the Monterey Bay Air Resources District. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1204 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 (Monday through Saturday) The pattern remains relatively stable through the rest of the forecast period. A developing low in the eastern Pacific will allow more of the troughing influence to arrive on Monday, causing temperatures to dip by around 3-6 degrees in the inland valleys (around the lower 80s to the lower 90s), before temperatures rebound on Tuesday and Wednesday due to the ridging reasserting itself, and remain remarkably close to today's forecast through the end of the 7- day outlook. The breezy afternoon and evening winds will continue to develop for coastal areas and through favored gaps and passes. Ensemble models and our colleagues at the National Hurricane Center continue to suggest the possibility for a couple of tropical systems to develop off the coast of Mexico through the next week. One such system could very well develop today. It's too early to say what the impacts of the system could be to the region, ranging from impacts to the large-scale pattern to the potential for tropical moisture flow towards our region. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 927 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR continues except for patchy coastal stratus and fog /IFR/ along San Mateo County. Mid and high clouds, including wildfire smoke over the north Central Coast, are moving northeastward over the forecast area. Northerly to northeasterly winds develop over the North Bay tonight and Sunday morning. Coastal stratus and fog /IFR-LIFR/ redevelop tonight and Sunday morning. Conditions improve to MVFR-VFR along the coast later in the morning otherwise VFR Sunday. Vicinity of SFO...VFR prevails until stratus /IFR/ develops 12z Sunday. VFR returns 18z Sunday. West wind 8 to 15knots tonight and Sunday morning. West wind increasing to 15 to 20 knots Sunday afternoon to mid Sunday evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR until stratus /IFR-LIFR/ redevelops late tonight and Sunday morning. Conditions improve to MVFR-VFR late Sunday morning and afternoon. Patchy stratus /IFR/ possible Sunday evening. West to northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 901 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Fresh to strong northwesterlies persist into Sunday morning as moderate seas prevail through the weekend. Marine conditions remain hazardous for small craft until Sunday night. Northern outer waters maintain elevated winds into Monday. Expect minor impacts to visibility along the Big Sur coastline due to smoke from the Timber Fire getting trapped south of Point Sur. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  132 FXUS63 KICT 230707 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 207 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Non-severe showers/thunderstorms possible today across portions of central and eastern Kansas. - Strong to severe thunderstorms possible tonight through early Monday, along with locally heavy rain. - Periodic chances for off-and-on thunderstorms through at least next weekend, especially during the evening-nighttime- morning hours. - Near to above average temperatures the next several days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 206 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 THUNDERSTORM CHANCES: TODAY...A weak thunderstorm complex is expected to progress east- southeast into central Kansas toward sunrise, ahead of an MCV approaching from the west. These showers/storms will be outrunning the better instability further west, so we're not expecting severe weather. This activity could reach as far east-southeast as roughly the KS Turnpike by late morning, with festering widely scattered showers/thunderstorms possible through the rest of the day over portions of central and eastern KS within a zone of 800-600mb warm advection. In all instances, severe weather or widespread heavy rainfall appears unlikely. TONIGHT--EARLY MONDAY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop toward midnight tonight and persist into early Monday, mainly along/south of Highway 56 and along/east of Highway 14, within a zone of strengthening 850-700mb warm/moist advection. Adequate elevated instability amidst decent directional effective shear may support a handful of severe thunderstorms capable of quarter to half-dollar size hail. Additionally, stout downdraft CAPE may also support some severe wind gusts. Additionally, the potential for numerous/training storms may support locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding concerns. By sunrise Monday, much of this activity should have progressed to mainly along/east of the Flint Hills, with all activity likely exiting the region by late morning. LATE TUESDAY--NEXT WEEKEND...These periodic thunderstorm chances look to persist off-and-on through at least next weekend, mainly during the evening-nighttime-morning hours, as periodic shortwaves progress east-southeast over Mid-America north of a stout upper ridge anchored over the southern to southwest CONUS. Seasonable instability combined with decent directional shear should yield a continued strong to severe thunderstorm threat, with wind/hail being the primary threats, along with locally heavy rain. TEMPERATURES: With the stout upper ridge remaining anchored within fairly close proximity to the Kansas region, near to above average temperatures are expected through at least the next 7-10 days. Periodic triple digit heat indices are likely, mainly over south-central and southeast Kansas during the afternoon through early evening hours. The "coolest" day looks to be today, with increased clouds and scattered precipitation keeping daytime highs in the 80s and 90s, coolest over portions of central, east-central, and southeast KS. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions expected over the next 24hrs across much of the area. There could a period of scattered showers and a few storms affecting central Kansas during the morning hours on Sunday. Light easterly winds will switch to the southeast. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...CDJ  150 FXUS63 KIWX 230707 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 307 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hazardous swimming conditions are expected on Lake MI beaches along Berrien Co, MI and La Porte County, IN today. Dangerous waves and currents are expected. Monitor the beach forecast for updates. - Chances (20-30%) for rain showers today, with partly cloudy skies and gusty northwest winds. Highs in the low-mid 70s. - Dry tonight into Wednesday morning. Chances for showers and thunderstorms (30-60%) return Wednesday afternoon and persist into Thursday. Highs in the 70s, low 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The 500mb low hovering over northern Ontario will deepen and shift southward into the Lake Huron/Southern Ontario/Quebec area by late tonight, then lift slowly northeastward through Wednesday along with the corresponding surface low. Our area lingers under cyclonic flow aloft/at the surface through later tonight when surface high pressure builds in beneath an expanding ridge to our west. The upper level ridge builds in more broadly on Tuesday. A shortwave pinwheeling around the closed low moves through this afternoon/eve along with a surface trough, which will re-invigorate the stronger northwest wind gusts and wave activity on Lake MI (thus beach hazards statement/small craft remain in place until this evening despite the lull overnight/early AM). It will also bring us the potential for rain showers where deeper moisture remains and we get some afternoon instability (perhaps a little enhancement from cooler air over Lake MI). Have chances around 20-30 percent. With cooler 850mb temps (7-10C) high temps this afternoon will primarily be in the low to mid 70s, warmest east of I 69. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s. Dry conditions persist from tonight into Wednesday morning as a dampening upper level ridge moves in over the Great Lakes. Highs will be in the 70s, low 80s. Lows will be in the 50s. Another upper level trough moves through the Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon into Thursday night, bringing a surface low through northern Ontario into Hudson/James Bay. A cold front will move west to east across our CWA Wed afternoon into Thu, bringing us chances (30-60%) for showers and thunderstorms. Beyond that period, the upper low lingers over Hudson Bay into Saturday, eventually moving northeast through the weekend. Flow over our area becomes more zonal in this time, with potential precipitation chances with each shortwave rippling through. Confidence wasn't high enough to have any pops for Friday/Saturday, but on Sunday we see a stronger wave move in so have 20-30 percent chances added in. Temperatures remain in the mid-upper 70s, low 80s through the period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 151 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Predominantly VFR conditions at the terminals this period, with MVFR ceilings/vis possible during shower activity this morning (KSBN) and possibly this afternoon (KFWA). Some of guidance hinting at some BR development at KFWA early but left out for now given winds are slightly stronger than models depict. Stronger W-NW winds return this afternoon, with gusts up to around 20-25 knots possible. Confidence in shower activity impact either terminal is fairly is low-a lot of the guidance is pretty widely scattered in terms of areal coverage. However, felt confident to at least put a mention for KSBN given upstream showers over Lake MI with incoming trough. Added a prob30 to KFWA for later this afternoon. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043- 046. && $$ DISCUSSION...MCD AVIATION...MCD  586 FXUS61 KCLE 230711 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 311 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the upcoming forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cooler weather with occasional lake effect rain showers across parts of Northeast OH and Northwest PA into early this week. Locally heavy rainfall is possible, mainly this evening. Elsewhere, scattered showers are possible this afternoon and evening before a prolonged period of drier weather arrives. 2 Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Wednesday night through Thursday night. Currently, the potential for severe weather and/or heavy rainfall appears minimal. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Surface low pressure across southern Ontario and an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes are expected to become closed off and more vertically stacked while drifting east through tonight. The system will begin to gradually weaken starting on Monday while only slowly exiting through southeast Canada and New England. High pressure will gradually build into the Ohio Valley and eventually across the local area early this week, though lingering influence from the departing closed low won't totally exit our northeastern counties until Tuesday. The primary weather impact from the departing system will be lake effect/enhanced rain showers occasionally streaming off of Lake Erie into parts of Northeast OH and Northwest PA. Lake water temperatures are near 25C on average, so as 850mb temperatures bottom out at 6-8C late today and tonight, with 700mb temperatures dipping to just below 0C and 500mb temperatures bottoming out around -20C, impressive and deep instability will be in place over the late summer lake waters. Flow will generally waiver between the west and northwest through early Tuesday before shifting more firmly offshore. We are seeing a flareup of lake effect showers and a few storms during the pre-dawn hours this Sunday morning as an initial vort max and surface trough axis works across the region. There will likely be a lull for several hours later this morning into this afternoon, before another impressive vort max and surface trough cross the lake the first half of tonight. This is expected to bring another, likely more widespread, flareup of lake effect showers and thunderstorms. Lake effect activity is possible as far west as the Islands and Sandusky through early tonight. Thereafter, activity will continue mainly from near the Cleveland metro points east-northeast (and will be most organized across Northwest PA) Monday into early Tuesday, though will likely shut-off farther west of Cleveland as high pressure gradually builds from the west-southwest. Lake effect is not expected to be as intense/organized (and will have decreasing thunder potential) starting late tonight, and may completely stop at times. However, coverage/intensity may briefly increase Monday morning, Monday evening, and perhaps early Tuesday as additional spokes of mid-level energy and surface troughs rotate around the backside of our departing closed low. After this morning's flareup, the main concern for organized activity that could produce locally heavy rain downwind of Lake Erie in short order is the first half of tonight. Rain amounts will need to be monitored for localized flooding potential if any more stationary bands of lake effect play out, especially over areas that saw heavy rain on Saturday. Lower overall confidence in impactful flooding and a likely limited potential areal scope of any flooding that occurs precludes a Flood Watch at this time. Some storms coming off the lake may produce small hail through early tonight, with the potential for gusty winds with any storms coming off the lake this evening as well. QPF amounts from the eastern Cleveland suburbs and across the core "snowbelt" of far Northeast OH and Northwest PA generally range from 0.50-2.00", which is manageable on its own, though given the very convective nature amounts will vary more than shown in the forecast and can locally end up in the 2-4" range. That would be where an isolated flooding concern can develop. Across the rest of the area a good scattered of showers is likely late this afternoon and evening as the vort max and surface trough work through. Otherwise, a drying trend is favored into the first half of the week as high pressure builds. Highs will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s today and Monday, coolest across Northeast OH and Northwest PA (the hills of PA may be stuck in the low-mid 60s most of Monday), with overnight lows largely in the 50s the next few nights. A few outlying areas may get into the 40s Monday night where skies clear. A gradual warming trend begins on Tuesday. KEY MESSAGE 2.. The next upper trough digs into the Great Lakes Wednesday and Thursday, with weak low pressure tracking well to our north and pulling a cold front through the local area likely on Thursday. This does not look like a very dynamic system, but will bring the next potential for scattered showers and storms. The greatest potential for rain appears to be late Wednesday night into Thursday. Given weaker dynamics and amounts of instability and moisture that appear modest, the risk for severe weather and/or heavy rain with this system is currently minimal. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... The main weather message for aviation over the next 24 hours will be impacts from lake effect clouds and lake enhanced showers with isolated thunder possible for NEOH and NWPA. Clouds will increase and ceilings will lower between 3500 and 5000 feet downwind of Lake Erie later this morning for CLE, YNG, CAK, and ERI. Scattered rain showers with isolated thunder possible will come off Lake Erie into NEOH and NWPA starting later this morning. This cloudy and showery weather will continue off and on through tonight for the sites just mentioned. There is general mention of -shra 6sm for most the TAF time period. We did try to highlight the time window of MVFR ceilings and visibility reductions of 3sm to 5sm for the showers later this afternoon into this evening as well as a mention of VCTS. Outside of the favored lake effect impacts to aviation, NWOH will see mostly VFR conditions and ceilings. Winds will be westerly to west- northwesterly increasing 10 to 15 knots later this morning through the evening with gusts up to 20 or 25 knots possible, especially closer to the lakeshore. The gusty winds will relax to 10 knots or less by late evening. Outlook...Non-VFR conditions will be likely through Monday afternoon with lake effect clouds and lake enhanced rain showers with isolated thunder possible for areas downwind of Lake Erie in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. VFR conditions will return Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure builds across the region. && .MARINE... Rough marine conditions are expected on Lake Erie today through Monday with gusty northwest winds and higher waves as well as the risk for rip currents along the beaches/lakeshore. West to Northwest winds will be between 15 and 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots today through Monday afternoon. Waves will increase 3 to 8 feet today through Monday. Waterspouts will be very possible on Lake Erie today through Monday as well. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazard Statements for rip currents have been issued through Monday afternoon and evening. High pressure will slowly build in Monday night into Tuesday with conditions on Lake Erie improving. By Tuesday, winds will be westerly to southwesterly 5 to 15 knots and waves decreasing to 1 to 2 feet. The southerly winds will linger into Wednesday 5 to 12 knots and waves of 1 to 2 feet as well. The next weather system to possibly impact marine weather will be a cold front moving through the Great Lakes region by Thursday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday afternoon for OHZ009- 010. Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for OHZ011-012- 089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LEZ144-145. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for LEZ146>149. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sullivan AVIATION...77 MARINE...77  542 FXUS62 KMHX 230711 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 311 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant forecast or messaging changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Localized severe threat for coastal areas this afternoon 2) A thunderstorm risk, some potentially severe, Monday afternoon east of HWY 17 3) Reduced thunderstorm risk possible Tuesday and Wednesday, with unsettled weather returning by late week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front will translate east across North Carolina today, then stall along the coast as frontal forcing weakens and shifts NE well away from the region. It still appears that the combination of the seabreeze and the stalled front will support an area of enhanced low-level convergence focused right along the immediate coast. Forcing will be aided by a shortwave moving through the area and jet entrance region dynamics. Meanwhile, and area of modest mid-level lapse rates will overspread a moist boundary layer characterized by dewpoints in the 70s in the vicinity of the front. Heating of this airmass should yield moderate to strong instability with MLCAPE of around 2000 j/kg. While low-level flow is forecast to be weak, modest mid-upper level flow should support deep layer shear of 25-30k, favoring organized multicells. While the front will be slightly removed from the strongest shear, short-term guidance suggests the potential for a few rotating updrafts/loosely organized supercells. While drier air aloft will help support DCAPE of 1000j/kg+ and an increased potential for strong downdrafts, it may also impact the sustenance of deep convection. That said, the setup appears supportive of at least a few longer-lived cells capable of damaging winds. If any sustained rotating updraft can develop, there could also be a risk of hail. While the convective risk should primarily be diurnally-driven, the front in the area plus plenty of elevated instability may allow a low-end thunderstorm risk through the night. KEY MESSAGE 2...Guidance is in good agreement depicting a weak surface low lifting northeast along a front that should be stalled along the coast of the Carolinas on Monday. In fact, as the low lifts through, it may pull the front back to the west slightly. Once again, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop along the front with MLCAPE around 2000 j/kg. One potential difference on Monday is that deep layer shear may get a slight boost along the track of the surface low. This may open the door for a slightly improved potential for a few loosely organized supercells. At minimum, it should support a continued risk of organized multicell clusters. With the front potentially getting pulled west some, the convective risk may also expand west some and not be confined to the coast only. That said, it still appears that the greatest risk of strong to severe thunderstorms will be east of HWY 17. The Storm Prediction Center has added a marginal severe weather risk for our eastern counties. Once again, the primary risk looks to be damaging wind gusts. But, any rotating updraft will be capable of some hail. KEY MESSAGE 3...Guidance has been waffling some on whether or not the airmass can fully dry out Tuesday and Wednesday as the Sunday/Monday front may still be stalled nearby. While the convective risk may not completely drop off, it looks like it may be reduced for a day or two. Moisture and instability then begin to rebuild across the Southeast U.S. coastline with the potential for another round of unsettled weather. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecast confidence is moderate to high over the next 24 hours. A somewhat drier airmass is beginning to advect into the eastern Carolinas this evening, and it now appears that this will have a limiting effect on stratus and reduced VIS overnight. In light of this, the TAFs have been adjusted to show a more optimistic scenario. There may still be some brief reductions to IFR/MVFR VIS at times, but the risk of longer- lasting IFR, or lower, conditions appears to be decreasing. On Sunday, a cold front will move into the area and then stall. Guidance is in good agreement with the front stalling along the coast, which should keep the TSRA risk just east of the TAF sites. It may be close for KOAJ and KEWN, but given the reduced risk, the PROB30s have been removed from both sites for now. Outlook: A front will remain stalled along the coast of the Carolinas through at least Tuesday. The front may get pulled west a bit on Monday and Tuesday as a couple of lows ride north along it. This would up the TSRA risk some, especially from KOAJ to KEWN. A risk of sub-VFR conditions would accompany any TSRA risk as well. && .MARINE... A cold front will move into ENC today, then stall across the area over the next couple of days. A couple of weak areas of low pressure are then forecast to lift northeast along the front today and Monday. This should continue to favor periods of thunderstorms. The background flow is expected to be the strongest early this morning (SW at 10-20kt). The gradient will then relax some as the front moves in and stalls. Varying wind directions are expected as the pair of lows move through, but neither low looks all that strong. For the coastal waters, seas of 2-4ft are expected today, highest this morning. Seas of 2-3ft are then expected on Monday. Outlook: Winds will become northeasterly for a brief time on Tuesday before southerly flow returns by the middle of the week, and lasting into the end of the week. Seas should generally hold around 2-3ft through Thursday, then build to 3-5ft late in the week. The risk of thunderstorms may decrease some Tuesday and Wednesday before increasing again later in the week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RM AVIATION...RM MARINE...RM  567 FXUS66 KEKA 230711 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1211 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Generally mild, seasonable weather is expected for the next week. && .SYNOPSIS...Dry, seasonable weather is likely for the next week. Slightly warmer interior temperatures are expected today and Monday before another trough brings cooler temperatures next week. Coastal stratus is likely to clear this afternoon but may be more persistent early next week. && .DISCUSSION...Weak high pressure rebuilds over the area today bringing slightly warmer temperatures this afternoon for the interior. Most interior areas will see highs in the 90s with a stray triple digit possible for the warmest valleys. A deep marine layer continues to bring stratus deep inland into the river valleys, however high pressure will make this slightly shallower than previous days. Breezy coastal winds this afternoon are likely to scatter any remaining stratus bringing a mostly clear, but breezy, Sunday afternoon at the coast with 60s and possibly near 70s possible for the immediate coast. Monday through the middle of the week, a trough starts to approach the area bringing slightly cooler interior temperatures along with a deeper marine layer. Light winds offshore may lead to coastal stratus to be persistent into the afternoons. Moisture and instability is limited with this troughing pattern, which will limit thunderstorm potential. Generally mild, seasonable weather is likely for much of the next week. && .AVIATION...Stratus has rebuilt over the coastal areas. A shallow LIFR ceiling is being observed along the coastal waters with a more elevated IFR to MVFR stratus later also being observed over Humboldt County. LIFR to IFR stratus is likely to continue through the night and scatter and lift shortly after sunrise. VFR conditions are likely by late morning across the area. && .MARINE...Northerly winds continue to increase today, especially in the northern outer waters and in the lee of Cape Mendocino. Wind gusts peak at 25 to 30 kts across these areas, but localized gale force gusts are possible in the lee of Cape Mendocino. While winds nearshore remain light, with peak gusts of 10 to 15 kts, steep seas of 6 to 8 ft are likely to propagate nearshore. Winds and seas diminish Monday as a frontal boundary arrives to the area. Conditions are likely to remain mild through Wednesday afternoon. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 3 PM PDT Monday for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png  677 FXUS62 KTBW 230712 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 312 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid conditions continue. - Onshore flow will lead to scattered showers and storms over the Gulf this morning that move inland during the afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Early morning showers and storms over the eastern Gulf will continue to develop and move over the coast before moving further inland through the day. Mid level dry air over SWFL will limit rain chances further south, though an isolated shower or storm can not be ruled out. More mid level dry air moves over the area Monday limiting rain chances further. However by mid week a series of mid level short waves will move over the eastern U.S. adding more moisture through the end of the week, which will help increase rain chances. Typical thunderstorm hazards like frequent lightning, strong gusty winds and heavy downpours could be possible in any storm that develops. Outside of showers and storms conditions will continue to be hot and humid, though below heat advisory levels. High temperatures through the week will be in the low to mid 90s with triple digit heat indices possible each day. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Onshore west to southwest flow continues today favoring showers and storms along the coast early in the day moving inland in the afternoon. Convection will likely remain north of SWFL terminals. VFR conditions prevail outside of any convection near or at terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Showers and storms over the Gulf this morning will continue to drift onshore and inland this afternoon. Pleasant marine conditions expected away from any shower or storm activity. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Fire weather concerns remain minimal as plenty of low level moisture remains in the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 89 78 91 78 / 50 10 20 10 FMY 94 78 94 78 / 10 10 30 10 GIF 93 74 95 75 / 30 10 20 10 SRQ 90 77 92 77 / 30 10 10 10 BKV 90 72 93 72 / 60 10 30 10 SPG 88 79 90 79 / 50 10 20 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce DECISION SUPPORT...Fleming  681 FXUS63 KDVN 230712 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 212 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather and pleasant temperatures and humidity continue into Monday. - Mainly dry this week with 20 to 40 percent chances of showers and storms on Wednesday and again next Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 110 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Deep northwesterly flow aloft continues across the Upper Midwest through Monday. High pressure is forecast to drift across the area with lighter winds today and Monday. Temperatures today will be cooler ranging from 75 to 80 degrees. Dewpoints today will be noticeably lower and be in the mid to upper 50s so it will feel pleasant across the area today. Temperatures Sunday night will drop into the mid to upper 50s. On Monday, model consensus as surface high pressure to the east o the area with light southerly return flow setting up across the area. Aloft, models show a slight eastward shift in high pressure to our southwest which pushes the northwest flow east of the area. Quiet weather is expected through the day but some models show a subtle shortwave within the flow that could overspread the area. The current forecast and NBM consensus for Monday is dry with sunny skies and precipitation remaining to the west across central and western Iowa. Depending on the exact placement of this shortwave, decaying showers may move into the far western edge of our CWA west of a Vinton to Fairfield to Keosauqua line with dry air in place across the area. High temperatures on Monday are expected to be in the upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 110 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to continue through the upcoming week. A storm system is forecast to pass to our north and east Tuesday night through Wednesday night with 25 to 40 percent chances of showers and storms. Models show a slight increase in moisture ahead of this storm system. Currently the higher chances of precipitation are across northwest Illinois. Rainfall amounts will be light with generally less than a tenth of an inch expected. High temperatures on Wednesday will be slightly warmer with high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. After Wednesday night, models show the northwest flow as another shortwaves tops the western US ridge flattening the flow to a zonal. This will overspread the area late Friday into Saturday bringing anther low chance of precipitation to the area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 High pressure is forecast to bring quiet weather and VFR flight categories through the period. High pressure is forecast to shift overhead over the next 24 hours with winds around 5 knots through the period. Diurnally driven cumulus is forecast to develop after 15 UTC along with winds increasing to around 8 knots through the day. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cousins LONG TERM...Cousins AVIATION...Cousins  874 FXUS61 KPHI 230716 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 316 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Aviation section for the 06Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A cold front passes through the region later this morning. Conditions improve this afternoon. 2. Fair weather is expected to return later Sunday and should persist into the middle of the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front passes through the region later this morning. Conditions improve this afternoon. Low pressure tracking across central Canada will first pull a warm front through the region early this morning, and then a cold front passes through the region later this morning. Ahead of this front, showers and scattered thunderstorms are moving through southeast Pennsylvania and into New Jersey, while some additional showers are moving through Delmarva and southern New Jersey. While there is a good deal of CIN over the area, the first wave of showers and scattered thunderstorms are moving into an area with MUCAPE upwards of 1500 J/kg. So these storms may bubble up a bit, especially with some 40 kt of 0-6 km Bulk Shear. While organized severe weather is unlikely, cannot rule out an isolated severe thunderstorm or 2 going into daybreak. Cold front then passes through the region late this morning. A drier airmass spreads into the region with surface dewpoints dropping from the upper 60s to around 70 to the low 60. Skies clear out this afternoon as high pressure builds in from the west. KEY MESSAGE 2...Fair weather is expected to return later Sunday and should persist into the middle of the upcoming week. More zonal flow with some subtle ridging moves in for the first half of the week. At the surface, high pressure will mainly be in control, resulting in dry and tranquil weather through Wednesday. Temperatures should be seasonable through this stretch. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Early this morning...MVFR/IFR CIGs. SHRA with scattered TSRA Threat for TSRA diminishing. VSBY restrictions in BR developing as well. LGT/VRB winds. Moderate confidence. Today...Conds improve to VFR by 14Z from west to east. W to SW winds increase as the morning progresses, then become W to NW 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Moderate confidence. Tonight...VFR. LGT/VRB winds. High confidence. Outlook... Monday through Thursday...VFR expected most of the time. && .MARINE... Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions will remain across the waters today and tonight. Seas on the ocean will mostly be 2 to 3 ft range thru the period. Winds today will start out from the southeast at 10 to 15 kt, then will turn southwest after sunrise. Winds turn west 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon, then will be west to northwest around 10 kt tonight. Showers with a few thunderstorms this morning, then improving conditions later today. Outlook... Monday through Wednesday...No marine headlines expected. Fair weather expected. Rip Currents... Today...East to southeast 10 to 15 mph winds this morning, turn to the southwest after sunrise, then west with gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Breaking waves will be 1 to 2 feet with light southerly swells with a 6 to 8 second period. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches. On Monday, southwest winds will average 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon with breaking waves of 1 to 2 feet. There will be light southerly swells with a period of 6 to 8 seconds. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MPS/OHara/Staarmann AVIATION...MPS/OHara/Staarmann MARINE...MPS/OHara/Staarmann  906 FXUS62 KCHS 230717 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 317 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today and Monday. A few storms could be strong to severe. - 2) Increasing rain chances mid to late week with the potential for locally heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Today and Monday. A few storms could be strong to severe. Well after a rather active afternoon with strong storms and flash flooding, rain chances do look to decrease the next two days as the upper trough shifts just a bit east. With the main trough axis just east of the area; drier westerly to northwesterly flow should begin to work into the area tonight into tomorrow. This drier air in the mid-levels should help limit coverage of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. However, less storms does not always mean less issues. While PWAT values will be lower in the 1.7 to 1.8 inch range tomorrow, there should still be enough moisture in the low levels to support some isolated to scattered storms to develop along the afternoon seabreeze. With temperatures climbing into the low 90s across SC and mid 90s across GA and dewpoints behind the seabreeze in the 70s, instability will be quite high in the 2,000 to 2500 range behind the seabreeze. What storms that do form and cluster up to survive the drier air could get rather strong. On-top of the instability, the aforementioned drier air a loft could assist in downdraft production leading to rather efficient downdrafts. DCAPE values look to range in the 1200-1500 J/kg range behind the seabreeze, which is rather potent. With 0-6km bulk wind difference around 20-25 knots, some multicellular organization could be possible as storms slowly move towards the coast. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with the strongest storms and as a result a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather is in effect for today for most of the area. This potential is also noted in some of the machine learning guidance that is hinting at some low end threat for damaging winds. Monday: Monday looks to be a rinse and repeat of Sunday with rather similar conditions across the area. The only main difference between Monday and Sunday will be slightly richer moisture as an upper shortwave looks to pivot through the area. This shortwave will help bring PWATs back into the 1.8 to 1.9 inch range which may support increased coverage across the area and more clusters rather than isolated cells. Given the better PWATS but drier air still lingering around some wet microburst potential seems possible and would not be surprised if Monday gets a bit rowdy in the late afternoon. While overall concern the next two days for heavy rainfall is lower given the lower moisture content, storms will still be capable of heavy rainfall if they sit long enough over an area. Given several locations are rather saturated after yesterdays heavy rainfall and flooding, we will have to keep an eye on where storms develop for any potential flooding issues. KEY MESSAGE 2: Increasing rain chances mid to late week with the potential for locally heavy rainfall. By the mid part of the week, the upper trough will begin to flatten out as upper ridging over the Atlantic begins to strengthen. A series of embedded shortwaves are expected to pivot through the upper trough Wednesday through Friday in very much a repeat of the last couple of days. A subtle surface boundary will slowly make its way into the area Wednesday evening into Thursday. With deep southwesterly flow a loft, PWATS are expected to climb back into the 1.9 to 2 inch range. Between the seabreeze each afternoon, the slow moving boundary and any remnant boundaries for each days storms, there should be plenty of low level focus for scattered to widespread thunderstorms to develop each afternoon. With PWATs approaching 2 inches and slow moving storm motions, heavy rainfall could start to become an issue for some areas as rainfall totals could quickly pile up. The biggest concerns likely come Thursday and Friday as the surface boundary encroaches on the coast where it will interact each afternoon with the seabreeze rather close to the flood prone metro areas of Savannah and Charleston. We will certainly have to keep an eye on this as we go throughout the week. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions should prevail tonight at all area terminals with maybe some instances of MVFR ceilings west of I-95 during the early morning hours. VFR conditions prevail into the afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing during the late afternoon. Storm chances look best along the coast and as a result, PROB30 groups have been added to CHS/JZI/SAV. Winds will remain light out of the southwest turning slightly more southerly during the afternoon with the passage of the seabreeze. Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon potentially bringing temporary restrictions to aviation. && .MARINE... Today through Friday: South to southwest winds will persist through the period. Conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels, with winds averaging 15 knots or less and seas 2 to 3 feet. Any showers or thunderstorms that move over the waters have the potential to bring higher wind gusts and frequent lightning. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: August 24: KCHS: 76/2010 KCXM: 80/1975 August 25: KCHS: 77/1982 August 28: KCHS: 77/2020 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Black/ETM  902 FXUS63 KLMK 230717 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 317 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry and pleasant conditions are expected for today through Tuesday. * Warmer temperatures (mid to upper 80s) and low chances for showers and storms return by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 316 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Light winds, clear skies, and recent precip over eastern areas has allowed for river valley fog to develop. This fog will burn off by mid-morning. High pressure at the surface and northwesterly flow aloft will be the main features over the region through Tuesday. This will bring cooler temperatures and drier conditions. Looking to see lows each morning in the upper 50s and low 60s and highs in the low-to-mid 80s. Dew points will remain in the mid 50s through most of the day, which will allow for very comfortable conditions. Guidance has trended drier through this short term, keeping the warm front to the southwest of the region. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 316 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 High pressure will move off to the east and the warm front will push northeast into central Kentucky on Wednesday. This will bring better moisture to broad troughing aloft. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. Additionally, temperatures look to return to normal in the upper 80s for Wednesday. On Thursday, an amplifying trough will move through the Ohio Valley and bring a cold front with it. This front will bring another chance for showers and storms on Thursday and into Friday. At this time, forecast soundings show weak shear and ample instability. So there is a possibility that a few storms become strong. Though, severe weather is not expected at this time. Behind the cold front, drier air is expected to build into the region. Temperatures will likely stay around normal in the upper 80s for highs through the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 134 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A small area of mid level clouds is currently pushing southeast through the region. Winds will remain calm to light through the early morning. Brief fog will be possible this morning, mainly at RGA and HNB. Northwest winds will pick up by mid morning around 6kts and then gust up to 19kts in the afternoon. A Cu field is likely in the afternoon. Conditions will remain VFR through this forecast period. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRW LONG TERM...SRW AVIATION...SRW  926 FXUS63 KDTX 230718 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 318 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy and cooler conditions arrive today with scattered showers through Sunday night. - Dry weather Monday into Tuesday with a warming trend. The next chance of showers and storms is possible late Wednesday and Thursday . && .DISCUSSION... A series of embedded shortwave maxima will dig directly into the central Great Lakes bolstering a closed 560 dam H5 trough through Monday night. Progs show 850mb temperatures bottoming out at +7C which will largely support high temperatures in the lower to upper 70s range the next couple of days, some 3 to 6 degrees below normal. Beefiest of the absolute vorticity maxima will arrive this afternoon with a direct path into the cwa while turning to a negative tilt. Forecast environmental profile shows main limiting factor for today will be very modest midlevel lapse rate structure at 5.5 C/km preceding the absolute vorticity. NWP supports upward vertical motion beginning to deepen after 18z with height falls rapidly pushing to the southeast of Southeast Michigan. Will require a good amount of lift to fight off the subsidence and all signs suggest shower and possible thunderstorm activity being relegated to the far southeast cwa mainly between 21-00z. Guidance looks again underdone. Again, modest lapse rates do not suggest much CAPE density this afternoon and no severe weather is expected. Closed low pushes eastward leading to 1000-500mb geopotential height rises and surface high pressure Monday. Only real item of note will be the potential for early to mid morning rain showers possible for the northern Thumb region/Huron County as good model signal exists for highly cyclonic flow and confluence downwind of Saginaw Bay and Lake Huron. Great day Tuesday for outdoor interests with high around 80 and surface dewpoints in the 50s. High confidence in very favorable weather with upper level confluent flow supporting strong surface ridging. Broad upper level jet streak and associated absolute vorticity wave packet is forecasted to push into the Great Lakes region Wednesday and Thursday. Uncertainty exists on most likely time window for precipitation onset as there will be a dry column preceding the wave. Temperatures are expected to be near late August averages Thursday and Friday. && .MARINE... Breezy post-frontal northwest flow to persist today and into the better part of tomorrow as cooler air is ushered into the Great Lakes. Sustained winds of 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots are expected, the strongest of which will be found across north- central and central Lake Huron where the fetch is more favorable. Some isolated gust potential to low-end gales cannot be ruled out for Lake Huron, but will preclude any Gale headlines given very low confidence to achieve any prolonged period of gales. Otherwise, rain showers and some isolated thunderstorms will be possible today along with a very low chance for a waterspout, most favorable across Lake Huron. High pressure will start to build into the region late tomorrow and will settle over the Great Lakes by Tuesday. Process of this high pressure moving in will start to relax wind speeds and gusts, leading to light winds by Tuesday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1209 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 AVIATION... A northwesterly wind and cold advection is supporting lingering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms activity moving across southeast Michigan early tonight. This activity is now east of the terminal corridor. Predominately VFR conditions exists within this environment which should carry through most of the tonight with the exception of possible MVFR conditions developing across PTK/FNT and maybe up to MBS. Gusts to around 20 knots start around 14Z this morning and last through much of the afternoon. Ceilings should remain low VFR with a low probability for scattered showers and possibly some isolated thunder during the afternoon. D21/DTW Convection...Low potential for isolated thunderstorm focused between 20Z and 00Z. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low in thunderstorms this afternoon. * Moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet today. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday afternoon for MIZ049. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for LHZ421-441>443. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for LHZ422. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CB MARINE.......CB AVIATION.....AA You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  949 FXUS63 KLOT 230719 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 219 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous swimming conditions at unprotected beaches in Cook County and northwest Indiana today. - Next chance for showers and thunderstorms towards midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 219 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The broad upper troughing over the Great Lakes continues to shift east into the northeast CONUS this morning which is allowing a surface high to build into the region from the Upper Midwest. This surface high is expected to remain over the area through Tuesday which will result in rain-free conditions and comfortable humidity. However, the persistent north-northwest winds will keep temperatures on the seasonably cool side today and Monday with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s to locally near 60. Winds are forecast to become more southerly on Tuesday on which should allow temperatures to rebound back into the 80s. Speaking of winds, north-northwesterly gusts around 20 mph are expected this afternoon with locally higher gusts possible over the open waters of Lake Michigan. Despite ongoing breezy winds (10-15 kt) over the lake, waves have been rather slow to respond with current buoy observations showing 2.0-2.5 ft waves offshore of Cook County and 3.0-3.5 ft waves offshore of northwest IN. That said, as the north-northwest winds prevail it still looks as if wave heights should continue to increase through this afternoon resulting in an increasing risk for rip currents and dangerous swimming conditions especially at northwest IN beaches. Therefore, the current plan is to maintain the ongoing Beach Hazard Statements for Porter, Lake (IN), and Cook Counties through this evening for this threat. So if you are planning to head to the beach today be sure to check the latest surf forecast beforehand and remember to stay dry where the waves are high! Our next chance for rain is not expected until the middle of the week when the shortwave trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to pivot through the Great Lakes. Associated with the shortwave is also expected to be a cold front which will be the main driver of the anticipated shower and thunderstorm activity. The latest trend in the 00z guidance suite is for the front to begin to move into northern IL late Tuesday night with a decaying area of showers and thunderstorms along it. Given the late night arrival and the lingering mid- level dry air forecast to be overhead locally, it seems that the best coverage of any showers/storms Tuesday night will be near the IL-WI line. The front is then forecast to drift across northern IL and northwest IN on Wednesday which should allow for the redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening as diurnal destabilization occurs. While forecast soundings do show some decent MLCAPE values (around 1000-2000 J/kg) and steep mid-level lapse rates, the convergence along the frontal boundary looks to be rather meager which may limit the coverage of showers and storms on Wednesday. That said, forecast soundings also show around 25-35 kts of deep layer shear Wednesday afternoon which may allow a few storms to become strong to possibly severe. At this time our area is not outlooked for severe weather likely due to uncertainty in storm coverage and timing, but this will be a period to monitor as we get closer. The cold front is forecast to exit the area late Wednesday night into Thursday morning which looks to allow another surface high to build into the area. Though, with some uncertainty as to how fast the front will exit this could change in subsequent forecasts. Regardless, another period of dry weather should develop to close out the work week, but there is a signal for more active weather to return towards the end of the weekend into the early part of the following week. On the bright side, temperatures do look to stay seasonable through the week with daily highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s. Yack && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A small patch of mid-level clouds that produced light showers in southeast WI have decreased in coverage over the past hour. This will continue to drift southeast over the next few hours into northwest Indiana. Still can't rule out a few spotty showers into northwest Indiana and have added a VCSH mention at GYY. Otherwise expect dry and VFR conditions through the period with diurnal cumulus developing around 6000 feet by mid morning. Light and variable winds early this morning will increase and settle into a prevailing NNW kt after daybreak with the occasional gust into the upper teens to around 20 kt in the afternoon. Winds then ease and become light and variable again after sunset. Petr && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for ILZ103-ILZ104. IN...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for INZ001. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for INZ002. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Wilmette Harbor to Calumet Harbor IL-Calumet Harbor to Gary IN. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Gary to Burns Harbor IN-Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  962 FXUS64 KFWD 230719 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 219 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures near or over 100 degrees will continue through next week, with the hottest days of the summer likely today through Tuesday. - An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for all of North and Central Texas today. Additional extensions of heat headlines are expected through the middle of the week. - Hot temperatures and low humidity will contribute to increased wildfire starts this week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Dangerously hot weather conditions will develop this afternoon across the region with temperatures ranging between 104 to 109 degrees. Given the expansive reach of the ongoing heatwave, the Excessive Heat Warning has been expanded and now includes all of our North and Central Texas counties. Although we expect dangerously hot temperatures later today, we continue to see the development of scattered showers across North and Central Texas this early Sunday morning. This activity is currently being driven by a southward moving shortwave, moving over pooled moisture and residual boundaries from yesterday's activity to the north. The ongoing activity will continue to progress southward through the predawn hours and generate precipitation to a lucky few! There is the potential for a rogue lightning strike or two, however, the main sensible impact will be gusty outflow winds. As mentioned above, this afternoon will be a hot one as our mid- level high pressure system inches closer to our region. Increased subsidence will likely prevent the development of precipitation this afternoon, however, a few high clouds may still stream in from the north. Nonetheless, sufficient surface warming is expected areawide to increase the risk for heat-related illnesses. Remember to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if you are outdoors, especially during peak heating hours. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Our dangerously hot weather will persist through the first half of the week as the ridge axis to our west slowly progresses eastward and increases its influence over our sensible weather. Highs on Monday will likely be 2-4 degrees warmer compared to today (Sunday). With temperatures this hot, an extension of the current heat headlines is likely. There is some question regarding the extent of the 105+ temperatures across Central Texas tomorrow, therefore, this will continue to be analyzed through today and a decision on the particular heat product will be made early this afternoon. A slow downward trend in the heat will commence on Tuesday as the ridge once again begins its westward retreat. By Wednesday, the ridge will have shifted west enough to allow for shortwaves to once again move across North and Central Texas. With each passing shortwave, expect increased cloud cover, thus, reducing the amount of insolation. Additionally, low rain chances will once again be introduced to the forecast. At this time, any rain that does occur will be scattered at best. Most locations will likely remain dry continuing to worsen the ongoing drought conditions. Heading into the weekend, our weather pattern will remain fairly stagnant with the ridge axis remaining to our west. Minute east- west changes to the area of high pressure may allow for a few shortwaves to sneak into our region, however, nothing looks promising enough to warrant a mention of precipitation. Expect hot and mostly dry conditions to persist through the rest of this forecast period. Given the continued hot and mostly dry weather conditions in place, all of North and Central Texas will continue to experience weather conditions favorable for initial attack type fires. Low relative humidity and well-above normal temperatures will continue to further dry vegetation. The limiting factor through the rest of the week will be the generally light winds expected, reducing the probability of rapid fire spread. Continue to exercise caution if preforming activities that may generate sparks! && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 109 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Scattered, short-lived showers have developed early this morning along an outflow boundary from storms in the Big Country, oriented SW to NE, and behind a weak cold front, currently draped NW to SE across the Metroplex. Brief wind gusts of 15-25KT are possible with these showers, but we expect ceilings and visibility to remain VFR. Light (5-7KT) ESE winds are present behind the front, but wind direction should veer toward more typical southerly flow by sunrise as the front washes out. Meanwhile, light westerly winds have been observed behind the outflow boundary, which will soon near the western edges of the I-35 corridor. We will monitor the progression of this outflow for future amendments, if necessary, to wind direction at Metroplex sites. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 105 84 108 83 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 104 81 104 78 / 10 0 0 0 Paris 102 78 104 79 / 0 0 10 10 Denton 106 82 107 81 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 105 81 106 81 / 0 0 0 10 Dallas 107 84 108 83 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 105 80 106 79 / 10 0 0 10 Corsicana 105 81 105 78 / 10 0 0 0 Temple 105 79 104 76 / 10 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 108 78 110 78 / 10 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Hernandez  939 FXUS65 KBYZ 230718 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 118 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms possible today. A few storms could be strong to severe, with strong wind gusts 55-65 mph the main threat. Localized heavy rainfall is also possible. - Drier with seasonal temps next week with just an occasional chance of precipitation. && .DISCUSSION... Through Saturday... Upper level troughing moving over the ridge will be the dominant factor in the weather over the next couple of days. Today will see 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE, 30-40kts of 0-6KM shear, and steep lapse rates create a favorable environment for thunderstorm development. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Risk Level 2 of 5 for severe storms. The main threat with these storms is the potential for wind gusts in excess of 70 mph and hail greater than 1 inch. Thunderstorm chances (20-40%) increase along the western foothills around 12 PM and move east throughout the afternoon and evening. Areas west of Billings could see a period of elevated fire weather concerns on Sunday as pre-frontal conditions bring westerly wind gusts of 15-30 mph, with humidity down near 20 percent. A low pressure system moving through southern Canada Monday will bring a cold front through the region decreasing temperatures from the low to mid 90s F on Sunday to the 80s F Monday. Drier air is expected to move in behind the cold front with minimum relative humidity values expected to be in the teens to low twenties. Breezy winds of 20-30 kts are expected along the western foothills and from Northern Rosebud County southeast to Carter County. This will lead to localized areas of elevated fire concern. Cooler conditions in the 80s F continue Tuesday. Upper level troughing begins to move off to the east Tuesday bringing high confidence in upper level ridging returning. This upper level ridging is expected to interact with an upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest. At this time, models are in agreement that the upper level ridge will win keeping warmer temperatures and drier conditions over our region, and cooler conditions to the west. Upper level high pressure centered over the southwestern US is expected to bring in monsoonal high based moisture bringing daily 10-40% chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through the weekend. Temperatures will continue to be slightly above average in the high 80s and low 90s Wednesday through Saturday. Torgerson .AVIATION... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will shift across the forecast area overnight, diminishing by 10Z. Expect VFR to local MVFR conditions with convection with localized wind gusts to 40kts. After a quiet morning, another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Beartooth/Absaroka mountains around 19Z and spread east through the region into the evening. Strong wind gusts up to 50kts mph are the main threat from this activity, particularly at KLVM and KBIL from 22Z to 02Z, and at KMLS between 02Z and 05Z. Wildfire smoke may affect slant range visibility at times. BT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 095 062/088 060/085 061/090 063/093 062/091 062/089 4/T 20/U 00/U 00/B 21/B 20/B 11/B LVM 089 050/086 049/085 051/088 052/089 051/087 051/086 5/T 10/U 01/U 11/B 41/B 31/U 22/W HDN 097 059/088 055/087 056/092 060/094 059/092 058/090 2/T 30/U 00/U 00/B 11/B 20/B 11/B MLS 096 064/087 057/084 056/087 060/093 062/091 061/090 0/B 30/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 21/B 21/U 4BQ 095 065/087 058/085 057/088 061/092 062/091 061/090 1/U 20/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 21/B 21/U BHK 093 059/088 053/085 050/086 053/090 056/090 055/090 2/T 20/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 23/T 22/W SHR 092 057/086 053/084 052/087 055/090 055/089 055/088 3/T 20/B 02/T 12/T 11/B 11/B 11/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings  031 FXUS63 KDMX 230721 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 221 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather continues today with highs in upper 70s to lower 80s. Areas of patchy morning fog remain possible. - Rain chances return Sunday night into Monday morning (40- 50%), mainly across western Iowa. Severe weather is not anticipated. - Early signs of a somewhat more active weather pattern next weekend, with a return of more persistent rain chances but any details still unclear at this range. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 218 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Saturday was arguably the best day in August so far! Highs climbed into the upper 70s to lower 80s across the state with dew points generally in the 50s and 60s making for a pleasant afternoon. Surface high pressure remains in place across the Central Plains this morning, keeping conditions calm across the Upper Midwest. With the high ushering dry air across central iowa, skies remain mostly clear tonight allowing for efficient radiational cooling. Lows overnight are expected to drop into the upper 50s across southern Iowa and lower 50s north. Given clear skies and calm winds, areas of patchy fog remain possible overnight- primarily along low lying river valleys, with minimal impacts as fog should remain fairly wispy. As we head into late morning, fog will burn off and cloud cover will increase from western Iowa ahead of our next incoming disturbance. The 500 MB trough centered over Ontario will begin shifting eastward, flattening the northern edge of the Four Corners ridge that has been anchored for past few days. Consequently, short range guidance indicates a shortwave emerging off the Rockies, pushing unsettled weather across the High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. This will allow rain chances to return to western and central Iowa as early as Sunday night. The main forecast challenge is the timing of initial rain onset, as forecast soundings show a very dry layer in the lower to mid levels. While short range guidance attempts to introduce showers into western Iowa as early as Sunday afternoon, precipitation chances were kept out of the daytime forecast due to the strong signal of dry air keeping initial returns as virga. Overnight, a strengthening LLJ will push into western iowa, enhancing low level moisture transport and saturating the column top down. The highest precipitation chances (40-50%) will align near the jet axis, with chances dropping of eastward toward the Des Moines to Davenport corridor (30-10%) where the deep layer saturation is harder to achieve. If the jet shifts further east, rain chances will need to bumped up accordingly. Rain chances gradually diminish into Monday afternoon. Severe Weather is not anticipated with this round due to negligible instability, with activity expected to remain mostly showers and an isolated storm or two. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 By Monday night the eastern 500 MB trough will have shifted over Quebec, while the western one crosses from Saskatchewan into Manitoba, then subsequently shifts east southeastward into the Lake Superior region by Wednesday. In Iowa this will be concurrent with a very light surface pressure/flow pattern, resulting in nebulous low rain chances at times from Monday night into Wednesday. As the 500 MB trough moves over Lake Superior, it will help push a large surface high pressure area down the northern High Plains and Midwest during this time, later bringing relatively comfortable and dry weather from around Wednesday night through Friday. The onset of the influence of this surface ridge will take the form of a modest trough, pushing through ahead of the main mid-level shortwave sometime around Tuesday night. Differences in timing and the sharpness of the trough lead to a high variability in model solutions, however, there does appear to be some potential for good destabilization on Tuesday afternoon/evening and also potential for moderate deep-layer (0-6 KM) shear of perhaps 30-35 KT or so. Again, there is significant variability in these solutions and much will depend on diurnal timing, but it is possible if the trough has enough low-level convergence and comes through during peak diurnal heating time, there may be a narrow window of opportunity for pulse storms with a severe weather threat late Tuesday. A more likely scenario, however, is that the trough comes through overnight with much less instability and/or weaker shear, or that the trough is too weak and low-level convergence is not sufficient to support stronger updrafts, or both. By next weekend, the 500 MB pattern should begin to shift just a bit, with the ridge flattening and shifting a bit toward the southwestern U.S., while a more zonal flow pattern sets up across the northern CONUS and Iowa. This would favor a somewhat more active weather regime in our region, with persistent rain chances likely returning. Of course that is still a week-plus out, but something to keep an eye on in the coming days. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected across the terminals through the period. While a low chance remains for fog this morning, it should remain quite isolated and transient in nature. Confidence is not high enough to include at any particular site but will amend as needed given trends. Cloud cover will increase throughout the day, especially late in the period as showers move into western Iowa. Any showers with this incoming system are not expected to impact KFOD/KDSM until after the end of the forecast period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TDR LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...Bury  014 FXUS65 KPUB 230720 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 120 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increased flash flood potential over the Aspen Acres burn scar today, as showers and thunderstorms become more numerous across the area. - Showers and storms continue through much of the incoming week, though with a downtrend in coverage late week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 1236 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Showers and isolated thunderstorms still drifting across the area early this morning, with plentiful moisture and weak upward forcing continuing. Still expect most activity to end by sunrise, persisting longest over the far eastern plains where low level jet may help boost activity for a few more hours. Brief break in convection Sunday morning, before mountain storms develop again starting around 19z, with activity spreading slowly over the plains and valleys from late afternoon into the evening. Precip signal for the Aspen Acres burn scar in the 00z CAMs is not quite as impressive as it was in the 12z data, as most forcing is rather weak and subtle (se surface winds are lacking in the 00z run), though much like Saturday, plenty of moisture and convection is in place, with very hard to predict outflow collisions/interactions driving convection. Will keep Flash Flood Watch up for the burn scar this afternoon and evening, as rainfall amounts of over 1.5 inches fell between Beulah and Pueblo in less than an hr on Saturday, just missing the scar. Expect max temps today to cool just a few degf over mountains, as mid level heights fall slightly, while plains readings stay relatively unchanged. On Monday, very little change in the pattern, with another round of afternoon and evening convection across the area. Will wait on another flash flood watch for the Aspen Acres burn scar to see how Sunday's convection and low level environment evolve, but may need another highlight as relatively stagnant weather persists. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 1236 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Upper level high pressure drifts back westward into the swrn U.S. during the week, with mid/upper level flow becoming slightly more nwly through the period. Still not much change expected Tue, with another round of afternoon/evening storms focused over the mountains, drifting onto the plains in the evening. Weak front may then drop south south through the plains late Tue into Wed, potentially enhancing convection over the eastern mountains and across the plains on Wed, as enhanced easterly upslope winds behind the front refresh low level moisture. Max temps will drift downward a few degf by Wed, as ridge shifts subtly west and moisture increases. Slow transition to drier weather starts Thu as ridge gets far enough west to cut-off deeper mid-level moisture, but still expect the usual crop of afternoon/evening storms, most numerous eastern mountains and plains. Drier and warmer weather then in store for Friday into next weekend, though we never completely flush the moisture out of the area, so at least isolated afternoon/evening convection will continue each day, especially over the mountains. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1125 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions anticipated across the forecast area, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS, during the overnight hours, though decided to maintain mention of VCSH at KCOS and KPUB until 07z as a few light showers linger. On Sunday, convection expected to redevelop over the higher terrain by 18z-19z, spreading to lower elevations after 20z. KCOS and KPUB: PROB30 for -TSRA once again starting 21z-22z and lasting until 03z. KALS: PROB30 for variable gusts and -TSRA again starting at 20z, lasting until 02z. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from this afternoon through this evening for COZ079-080-086. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...PETERSEN AVIATION...MOORE  009 FXUS66 KOTX 230720 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1220 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lingering thunderstorms over Northeast WA and North ID through Sunday morning. - Breezy winds across the Basin on Sunday. && .SYNOPSIS... A weather system continues to impact the region through Sunday morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms producing gusty outflow winds, along with breezy winds and low relative humidity expected. Sunday will remain breezy and dry, but cooler. Temperatures will warm again at the start of next week with breezy conditions returning by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today: The Low will be passing through the North Idaho into Alberta. There is still enough instability to generate showers and occasional isolated thunderstorm over Northeast WA and North Idaho through the morning. These areas have a round 10-30% probability of thunderstorms. The thunderstorm threat will diminish through the afternoon as the system continues eastward. The system will bring gusty winds across the Basin with gusts in the 20-30 mph range. Winds will be breezy through the day before declining by the evening. Highs will be cooler with a range of upper 70s to 80s expected. Monday through Saturday: A ridge will build into the region along the Continental Divide while a trough digs in off the coast. A similar pattern will be setting up from this past weekend. The ridge will be in place for a couple of days leading to dry, warm pattern. Highs will climb back into the 90s. Moderate HeatRisk will return for most lowland locations on Tuesday. The trough begin to push into the region on Wednesday and slowly track East through the end of the week. Ensembles have weak instability over the Cascades, northern mountains, and the Idaho Panhandle. Precipitable water amounts are 0.5-0.75 of an inch. These areas will likely have isolated showers with an occasional lightning strike. NBM has around a 10% probability of lightning. Winds will increase through the Okanogan Valley and Waterville Plateau with gusts in the 20-30 mph range. While it does not bring in a meaningful amount of rain, the trough will drop highs back into the 80s through the end of the week. /JDC && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFs: Lingering instability and an incoming system continue chances for isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the into Sunday morning. Greatest risk will be over Northeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. Winds will remain elevated overnight into Sunday morning as the system tracks inland with gusts into the mid 20-30 kts. Smoke from the Cascade fires will continue to impact KEAT at times. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low confidence for TS at terminals but moderate confidence for outflow winds to impact most terminals with speeds of at least 20-30 mph. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 80 53 86 55 93 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 79 52 86 55 93 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 76 45 86 49 93 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Lewiston 85 56 92 61 98 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Colville 78 43 86 46 93 51 / 30 10 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 76 46 82 50 90 55 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 76 51 84 54 91 57 / 10 0 0 0 0 10 Moses Lake 84 52 89 57 94 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 82 61 87 64 92 68 /0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 83 53 88 57 93 62 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for Selkirk Mountains of Northeast Washington (Zone 700). Red Flag Warning until 5 AM PDT early this morning for Eastern Columbia Basin -Palouse -Spokane Area (Zone 708)- Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone 701). Air Quality Alert until 2 PM PDT Monday for Central Chelan County-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County. ID...Red Flag Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101). && $$  189 FXUS61 KBTV 230725 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 325 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 323 AM EDT Sunday... No significant changes to the current forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 323 AM EDT Sunday... 1. Frontal system crosses our area today bringing showers with embedded thunderstorms to the region. 2. Showers continue into Monday as low pressure lags behind departing frontal system, leaving cyclonic flow in place. 3. Showery end to the week before trending drier over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 323 AM EDT Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers upstream across western New York will lift northeastward into our region today as a surface frontal system will move across our area. Morning showers and convection may be an inhibiting factor for possible additional convection this afternoon. Current forecast is for maximum temperatures to reach the 70s areawide this afternoon. These temperatures along with dewpoints into the upper 50s to lower 60s will lead to CAPE around 500-1000 J/kg by the afternoon. Modest mid level lapse rates along with some surface based instability will mean we will have to monitor for some possible severe storms this afternoon. CAMS still handling the timing of convection a bit differently today, and morning convection will continue to be a possible limiting factor to prevent storms from being too strong. Several rounds of showers, but should mostly be scattered so rainfall totals should not be too hefty, generally half an inch or less except in locations that may have multiple rounds of thunderstorms today. KEY MESSAGE 2: Although surface fronts cross our area today, the parent low pressure system will linger behind it, and make it's way north of our region during the day Monday. Upper level low pressure system will also be crossing our region Monday into Tuesday. This will lead to continued light rain showers, though less convective threat. Still mentioning slight chance for thunderstorms during the afternoon, though surface instability looks less impressive on Monday. Flow will also become more southwesterly and there will be noticeable influence off Lake Ontario as showers become more concentrated in the St Lawrence valley on Monday night into Tuesday. KEY MESSAGE 3: An upper-level trough builds in on Thursday and Friday, bringing the chance for some showers. A weak northern- stream surface low should track from west to east out of the Great Lakes Region and into Quebec during this time, amplifying the showers. Model guidance has trended weaker and more out to sea for any secondary low that tries to develop on Friday, keeping the heaviest rain southeast of the region and causing Saturday to trend drier. During that period, GEFS/EPS/CMCE combined probabilities of more than a half inch of rain are down below 25 percent. Broad upper troughing and associated cyclonic flow should remain over the weekend, keeping temperatures on the cooler side, but conditions should remain mostly dry. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06Z Monday...Ceilings will lower a bit as the night continues, especially across southern and eastern Vermont. MPV should be predominately MVFR, with a few periods of IFR possible. Intervals of MVFR and VFR are likely at RUT and possibly EFK. Elsewhere, VFR ceilings are expected to continue. Ceilings will rise during the day today and they should reach VFR everywhere except MPV by mid-morning. Ceilings at MPV should eventually rise to VFR, but it could take until evening. Passing showers are expected during the day and this evening, with a brief period of steady rain expected across much of northern New York this morning. These showers will mostly drop the visibility to low VFR and MVFR, but brief periods of IFR are possible in the heaviest showers. Thunder is also expected in the heaviest showers, along with strong erratic winds. The showers should mostly be done by midnight, and dry conditions are expected for the rest of the night. Winds will be southerly during this period, with gusts in the 10-20 KT range during the day, decreasing in the evening. The strongest gusts are expected at BTV and PBG. LLWS is possible at MSS this morning for a couple hours. Outlook... Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Neiles DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Neiles AVIATION...Myskowski  326 FXUS64 KJAN 230728 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 228 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous heat stress is expected across portions of the forecast area over the next several days. - Isolated to scattered severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible today across far southern portions of the area, expanding into central areas as well by Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Today into Monday... Persistent hot/humid conditions will continue today. Dangerous heat conditions are expected with greatest heat stress over the southwestern half of the area where heat indices reaching 110 degrees are expected. A heat advisory remains in effect for those areas concurrent with an "Elevated" (2/4) delineation on graphical hazardous weather outlook products. A weak frontal boundary will push southward, briefly "cooling" temps to the lower 90s with heat indices near 105 becoming mostly confined to the southwestern third of the area by Monday where a "Limited" (1/4) area is depicted for that heat risk. Showers and storms will be mostly confined to southern portions of the area today with strong to marginally severe storms depicted by a "Marginal" (1/5) outlook near the highway 84 corridor. These storms will peak in intensity during the afternoon into evening when heating is maximized. The risk area will expand on Monday to include areas as far north as the I-20 corridor as storms once again peak in intensity during the afternoon and evening. Shear remains weak due to seasonably weak upper level winds and extensive summer ridging. With summertime thermal profiles prevailing, this will result in a generally high freezing level and warm/hot boundary layer temperatures. For these reasons, the primary hazards each day will be damaging wind gusts to around 60 mph, primarily associated with wet-microburst processes. Tuesday through Saturday: The upper high responsible for the ongoing heatwave does begin to retrograde as we head into next week, but at the same time upper troughing to the northeast of the area begins to weaken which results in 500 mb heights remaining roughly unchanged in the 590-591 DAM range. This does, however, result in mid and upper velocities dropping a small amount (e.g. 5-10 kts @ 500 mb). While small, the already meager shear/deep flow may somewhat alleviate the risk for the near daily strong to severe storms with damaging winds that we have been seeing over the last several days. Heat and humidity will be on the rebound in this more stagnant pattern and continued elevated upper height anomalies as heat indices likely once again threatening the 110 degree mark in some places. Heat headlines and advisories will likely be needed as the week progress. /SW/86/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Winds will be light and variable tonight and northerly (sustained/gusts under 10mph) into Sunday. /86/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 98 73 92 73 / 10 0 30 30 Meridian 97 73 92 72 / 20 10 40 20 Vicksburg 96 74 92 73 / 20 0 30 20 Hattiesburg 99 74 95 73 / 20 10 60 20 Natchez 98 75 96 75 / 20 10 20 10 Greenville 97 73 91 72 / 10 10 30 40 Greenwood 95 72 89 71 / 0 10 30 40 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>066-072>074. LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026. AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. && $$ LP/LP/LPJAN-165114  328 FXUS64 KJAN 230728 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 228 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous heat stress is expected across portions of the forecast area over the next several days. - Isolated to scattered severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible today across far southern portions of the area, expanding into central areas as well by Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Today into Monday... Persistent hot/humid conditions will continue today. Dangerous heat conditions are expected with greatest heat stress over the southwestern half of the area where heat indices reaching 110 degrees are expected. A heat advisory remains in effect for those areas concurrent with an "Elevated" (2/4) delineation on graphical hazardous weather outlook products. A weak frontal boundary will push southward, briefly "cooling" temps to the lower 90s with heat indices near 105 becoming mostly confined to the southwestern third of the area by Monday where a "Limited" (1/4) area is depicted for that heat risk. Showers and storms will be mostly confined to southern portions of the area today with strong to marginally severe storms depicted by a "Marginal" (1/5) outlook near the highway 84 corridor. These storms will peak in intensity during the afternoon into evening when heating is maximized. The risk area will expand on Monday to include areas as far north as the I-20 corridor as storms once again peak in intensity during the afternoon and evening. Shear remains weak due to seasonably weak upper level winds and extensive summer ridging. With summertime thermal profiles prevailing, this will result in a generally high freezing level and warm/hot boundary layer temperatures. For these reasons, the primary hazards each day will be damaging wind gusts to around 60 mph, primarily associated with wet-microburst processes. Tuesday through Saturday: The upper high responsible for the ongoing heatwave does begin to retrograde as we head into next week, but at the same time upper troughing to the northeast of the area begins to weaken which results in 500 mb heights remaining roughly unchanged in the 590-591 DAM range. This does, however, result in mid and upper velocities dropping a small amount (e.g. 5-10 kts @ 500 mb). While small, the already meager shear/deep flow may somewhat alleviate the risk for the near daily strong to severe storms with damaging winds that we have been seeing over the last several days. Heat and humidity will be on the rebound in this more stagnant pattern and continued elevated upper height anomalies as heat indices likely once again threatening the 110 degree mark in some places. Heat headlines and advisories will likely be needed as the week progress. /SW/86/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Winds will be light and variable tonight and northerly (sustained/gusts under 10mph) into Sunday. /86/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 98 73 92 73 / 10 0 30 30 Meridian 97 73 92 72 / 20 10 40 20 Vicksburg 96 74 92 73 / 20 0 30 20 Hattiesburg 99 74 95 73 / 20 10 60 20 Natchez 98 75 96 75 / 20 10 20 10 Greenville 97 73 91 72 / 10 10 30 40 Greenwood 95 72 89 71 / 0 10 30 40 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>066-072>074. LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026. AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. && $$ LP/LP/LP  785 FXUS63 KILX 230735 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 235 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonal and mostly dry weather is expected the next few days. - The next chance for showers and storms arrives midweek. Some of these storms could be strong to marginally severe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Upper air analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure achored over the southwest US with troughing over the eastern US. Northwest flow between these two features will keep seasonal and mostly dry weather in place through the start of the new week. By midweek, a compact upper shortwave will track through the northern Great Lakes Region, sending a cold front through a good portion of the Midwest states. This will bring our next chance for showers and storms. Out ahead of the front, temperatures will climb well into the 80s with steady moisture return sending dewpoints into the upper 60s to low 70s. Forecast guidance is showing moderately strong instability developing by Wednesday afternoon with seasonally strong shear. Forecast soundings depict inverted-V T/Td profiles with a large area of CAPE atop of that. A capping inversion will be in place most of the day, but will erode from west to east by late afternoon/early evening as the front approaches. Although the better upper forcing will be displaced to our north, a few strong to marginally severe storms could develop Wednesday afternoon and evening, posing a threat for damaging wind gusts. Later this week, northwest flow aloft will become more zonal by the weekend. A few weak shortwaves traversing through the upper flow may spark occasional spotty showers, though most will stay dry. Longer range guidance shows a more defined wave/front moving through sometime later Saturday or Sunday, which would bring another chance for precipitation. Temperatures will remain seasonable through the end of the month with highs in the low to middle 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 High pressure over the Upper Midwest tonight will slowly spread to central Illinois by Sunday evening. A light northwest wind under 10 kt will prevail across central Illinois through the day Sunday, then will give way to light and variable winds under the ridge axis Sunday night. Outside of an off chance for some patchy fog that reduces visibility early Sunday morning, VFR conditions are expected to prevail across central Illinois through the period. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...NMA DISCUSSION...NMA AVIATION...Deubelbeiss  729 FXUS65 KVEF 230734 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1234 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Above normal temperatures continue through next week. * Isolated storm chances linger into early next week, with best chances in northwestern Arizona and the southern Great Basin. && .DISCUSSION...Through Saturday. With a fairly persistent pattern expected, temperatures remain above normal through the forecast period. Ensemble guidance keeps the 500mb ridge anchored in southern NM and southeastern AZ, leaving us under south-southwest flow aloft. A subtle cooldown is expected Monday-Tuesday as moisture increases in our southeastern areas, but excessive heat quickly returns by mid-week and sticks around. Elevated low temperatures will offer little-to-no overnight relief, especially in the Mojave Desert. Major to extreme heatrisk is forecast to return to these areas during the second half of the week. The aforementioned south-southwest flow is just southerly enough to let moisture linger but southwesterly enough to keep it limited. These conditions should favor isolated afternoon convection, primarily in northwestern AZ and the southern Great Basin where odds are 10-30%. Main concerns with this activity are gusty outflow winds and dry lightning, though brief heavy downpours are possible. An influx of moisture on Monday may result in an uptick in coverage along/southeast of I-15, but models still disagree on the northwestward extent and magnitude of this influx. During the second half of the week, the flow acquires a greater westerly component, allowing moisture and precipitation chances to subside. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package... Expect southwesterly winds around 7kts through the night before weakening and becoming light and variable by the mid morning. Southeasterly winds arrive in the late morning with south- southwest winds arriving in the mid afternoon along with gusts around 20kt. Gusts cut off after sunset as winds turn southwesterly and reduce. Temperatures look to break 100 degrees shortly after 17z, peak at 00z, and cool below 100 shortly before 04z. Winds become light and variable into early Monday. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds are reducing for all but KDAG which stays gusty until the late night. From then, all winds look to stay light through the night and much of the morning. Gustier winds arrive in the afternoon with peak gusts above 20kts possible. Passing showers will affect the valley into the afternoon but exit in the late afternoon. Stronger gusts at KDAG arrive slightly later in the early evening and look to last into the late night while the rest of the TAF sites see gusts cut off and winds lighten. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Woods AVIATION...Murdock For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  959 FXUS63 KAPX 230738 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 338 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy, showery, and cool conditions today into Monday...a rumble of thunder not impossible - High swim risks today and possibly into Monday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 337 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: Ridge axis stretching from the SW US bookended by sharp troughs....one over the PacNW, and another stretching from Hudson Bay to a lobe of PV over central Ontario, down through the Great Lakes and down into the Carolinas...with Bermuda high well off the coast. 100kt upper jet snaking through the flow, particularly on either side of the eastern US trough axis. Deep moisture that aided in yesterday's localized 2-4in rainfall now exiting stage right into New England and eastern Canada, along/ahead of an occluded surface low on the north edge of Georgian Bay as of 0z; surface cold front with this drapes to the Southern Plains and back up the lee side of the Rockies, where mid/upper level return flow from the SW US aids in convective activity. PV max over Ontario has some associated weak stability aloft with seasonably cool 850mb temps around 4C beneath it...with strengthening (20-30kt) N/NNW low-level flow poised to advect this air into the Upper Great Lakes; the harbinger of this is a surface cold front draped from the Canadian border toward Whitefish Point and up to James Bay as of 0z. Warm advection already taking shape across the central Canadian Prairies with 1022mb surface high focused over Manitoba/MN. PV max over central Ontario to track SSE across the area today...lending to a strengthening of low pressure near and northeast of Georgian Bay. Thus, expect strong NW/NNW flow over the area today, slowly waning with time into Monday, though we will still remain under cyclonic low-level flow until high pressure finally builds into the Upper Great Lakes by Monday night/Tuesday. Next system, that current PacNW system, will track across southern Canada and lend its warm advective influence to the Upper MS Valley as early as Tuesday...and track into our area going into Wednesday, bringing us the next shot at unsettled weather. Signals point toward troughing attempting to settle into the eastern US again for the latter half of the work week...while troughing over the West Coast tries to squash the western ridge altogether...potentially resulting in zonal flow across the northern CONUS...and perhaps a blocking ridge setting up over northern Canada? FORECAST DETAILS... Winds/beach hazards today/tonight... Strongest portion of the pressure gradient may remain to our north/northeast, which would limit the winds here...but expect sustained winds 10-20mph will remain likely, especially for the EUP and NE Lower, right on into Monday morning, tapering through the day as the low pulls away. Prevailing direction should be NW to NNW through the period, but should fluctuate back and forth in this general portion of the wind rose depending on the passage of perturbations/PV maxima through the day (current timing on the main PV max is for it to drop through late morning into the afternoon). Winds aloft still don't look overly impressive (generally 20-30kts from 925 to 850mb) for much of the day, but may strengthen above 30kts for a period this evening/tonight before diminishing with time Monday. Suspect gusts will largely reflect this idea, and still don't have a lot of confidence in achieving persistent gales...but best shot at this would likely be over Whitefish Bay, northern Lake Huron, and perhaps also near the tip of Grand Traverse Bay where there could be some channeling of winds. Nonetheless...gusty winds today will result in dangerous waves and currents, and high swim risks across most beaches. Showers/storms today into Monday...Potent pv max diving in, combined with some signals for weaker stability aloft, could indicate some potential for more vigorous convection and perhaps small hail along with lightning. With overlake instability as a player, wouldn't be impossible to see convection end up deeper/more vigorous, though inversion heights should be around 700mb/9-10kft, which could put a cap on things...but do wonder if the 18-22C lake surface temps will try to overcome that. With a little better deep layer shear in the region today...suppose there is a non-zero chance everything could come together just perfectly to produce some spicier storms...but not a sure bet by any means. If anything were to get a little spicy, would expect it would be similar to yesterday's scattered pop-up convection with primarily gusty winds as the concern. Some deeper moisture wraps around into the region toward evening from the northeast...likely some kind of wraparound/trowal-ish feature related to the departing surface low. Thus, suspect this would be a wad of somewhat more warm-advective stratiform rain and/or drizzle. Do wonder if this could result in a swath of higher QPF, particularly with signals for pwats to jump back above 1in... but also think the bulk of, if not most of this, will remain offshore...given some question as to how far back to the east the moisture will wrap. (Not to mention subsidence should be increasing with time tonight into Monday.) Guidance soundings also suggest the idea of stratiform rain/drizzle, noting moist but mostly stable thermal profiles, which could also limit QPF. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1036 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Low clouds build in tonight, mainly for KCIU and KAPN, turning VFR to MVFR. This lingers into the 14Z to 15Z time frame before low VFR remains for most. TEMPO for MVFR CIGs not impossible at other sites. Northwest winds remain elevated through the night, becoming breezy on Sunday, 10-15G20-25KTs. ISO to SCT -SHRA/VCSH also expected on Sunday, midday and into the afternoon hours. TSRA not expected at this time. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 7 AM EDT this morning through this evening for MIZ016-018-020-021-024-025-031-098-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for LHZ346. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Monday for LHZ347-348. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342- 344. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for LMZ345-346. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322. && $$ DISCUSSION...FEF AVIATION...JLD  160 FXUS63 KPAH 230742 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 242 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The week will begin on a dry note, but small chances of heat of the day showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday through Tuesday in southeast Missouri. - The next chance of showers and thunderstorms across the entire region is forecast Wednesday afternoon and evening. - High temperatures will warm from the lower 80s early this week to the upper 80s by late week, along with increasing humidity levels. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The region will remain sandwiched between the upper level ridging to the SW across the southwest CONUS and the trough to the NE across the northeast CONUS this week. At the surface, high pressure will build into the area today through early Monday. As a result, most of the forecast area is expected to remain dry today into the middle of the work week, with the exception of SEMO. Here, several small shortwaves are forecast to move through the area almost daily, bringing 15-30% chances of showers, typically in the late afternoon/evening and into the overnight hours. Rain chances for the entire region will increasing beginning Wednesday, when another trough is expected to move through, with widespread low PoPs across the region. Daily afternoon temperatures are expected start in the low 80s today through the middle of the work week. However, temperatures will climb into the upper 80s for the second half of the week. Additionally, dewpoints will become more humid, in the upper 60s and low 70s as well. This will be in response to a warm front lifting northward through the region. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Fog potential tonight looks a little tricky since models don't seem to be picking up on the signal that much, but last night's set up being very similar to tonight and climo, lends itself to at least patchy fog development at CGI, MVN, and PAH. Aside from the fog potential tonight, winds should be mainly calm overnight with clear skies. Tomorrow winds will be out of the northwest at around 5-7 kts. High cloud cover increases tomorrow through the day and into the evening. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AZ AVIATION...HICKFORD  136 FXUS64 KLZK 230741 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 241 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 -Relatively cooler temperatures will be seen from today through much of the upcoming week, especially compared to the brutal temperatures felt across Arkansas last week. -A Heat Advisory is in place across southern Arkansas for today as heat index values are expected to reach and exceed 105 degrees. -A Marginal Risk for severe weather is present on Sunday across the northwestern quadrant of the state for a few storms which may produce damaging wind gusts on Sunday evening into the early morning hours on Monday. -Northwesterly flow positioned over Arkansas will continue to allow multiple frontal boundaries to impact the state resulting POP chances on multiple days during the forecast period && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 As of 2 AM CDT, storms are exiting the southeastern portion of the state and moving into Mississippi. SUNDAY into EARLY MONDAY: A Heat Advisory has been introduced for today across southern Arkansas where heat index values are expected to peak between 105 and 109 degrees during this afternoon. It is expected during today for southern Arkansas to remain dry overall which will allow heat index values increase into advisory territory. A chance does exist that the Heat Advisory may need expanding northward along the I-40 corridor, but latest guidance does not warrant this. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) will be in place across the northwestern quadrant or northwestern fourth of the state with the main hazard of damaging wind gusts possible with storms that become severe. A mid-level jet streak over southern Missouri and northeastern Arkansas will result in the right entrance region of the jet to be positioned over northeast Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas. The entrance region will promote or enhance lift which will lead to storm development and the storm motion of east-southeast will result in scattered storms moving into a modest, but conditionally unstable parameter space across the northwestern fourth of Arkansas with projected shear values of 30 to 45 knots to support healthy updrafts along with DCAPE values of 500 to 1,000 J/kg which would support isolated instance of damaging wind gusts. The timing of the storms moving into Arkansas will be Sunday evening into Sunday night. MONDAY through SATURDAY: In the upper lvls, northwesterly flow will continue to be present over Arkansas leading to several days over the forecast period in which POPs will be present across parts of the state. Important to note not all locations will experience appreciable rainfall. POPs will be present across eastern Arkansas on Monday night, a large part of the state on Wednesday into Wednesday night (associated with a series of weak frontal boundaries progged to move across the state from north to south), and isolated parts of the state into the next weekend (associated with a boundary which is progged to become stationary across Arkansas). Temperatures overall during the forecast period will be lower than the brutal temperatures experienced over the last week, but a few days, especially those which lack POP chances and increased cloud cover will allow high temperatures to reach 100 degrees across many location and on the trend of temperatures above normal for this time of the year will continue overall. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Expect VFR conditions over the forecast period across all TAF sites between early Sunday morning and early Monday morning. At the beginning of the period -TSRA will be exiting the state of Arkansasand moving into Mississippi. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 94 70 89 70 / 0 30 40 30 Camden AR 99 74 95 73 / 0 20 30 10 Harrison AR 90 68 86 68 / 10 60 50 10 Hot Springs AR 98 74 94 73 / 0 30 40 10 Little Rock AR 97 74 92 74 / 0 40 50 20 Monticello AR 98 75 92 74 / 10 10 50 30 Mount Ida AR 97 72 94 71 / 0 30 40 0 Mountain Home AR 91 68 85 68 / 0 40 50 20 Newport AR 93 70 89 70 / 0 30 40 40 Pine Bluff AR 96 72 91 72 / 0 30 40 30 Russellville AR 96 72 91 71 / 0 40 50 0 Searcy AR 95 70 89 70 / 0 30 60 30 Stuttgart AR 97 73 91 73 / 0 20 50 30 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ052-053-062>069. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...74  436 FXUS61 KBOX 230749 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 349 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms around today, especially towards the CT River Valley where an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm or two is possible. - Drier and warmer next week before rain chances make a return sometime Thursday/Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and storms around today, especially towards the CT River Valley where an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm or two is possible. Weak low pressure just off to our northeast continues to aid in continued NE low level flow this morning, keeping overcast skies over southern New England. Chances for spotty showers continue primarily towards Nantucket and the outer Cape where showers are just offshore and continuing to move off to the northeast. Aside from these, misty and foggier conditions continue this morning across the region. The main thing to keep an eye out for today will be the chances for some showers and storms towards the afternoon. Showers tracking across New York associated with the approaching cold front will approach western MA and CT towards the late morning/early afternoon hours. The low pressure to our northeast loosens its grip over southern New England as more southerly winds take hold in the late morning/early afternoon hours, advecting in dewpoints in the 70s. Increased humidity along with diurnal instability may enhance the risk for storms in the interior turning strong to severe. Even with cloudier skies inhibiting instability a bit, model soundings and CAM guidance have MUCAPE values around 1500-1800 J/kg over the CT Valley in the afternoon, and MLCAPE values to around 1200-1300 J/kg with limited capping in the soundings. Effective bulk shear values around 40 kt will also aid in development of an isolated stronger to severe storm or two, with the main risk of these storms being damaging winds. PWAT values still around 1.25-1.5" in the afternoon ahead of the front will also keep the risk for some torrential downpours in play. The interior remains in a Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather today considering this environment. Outside of this risk of showers and storms, the rest of the region can expect to remain mostly dry, albeit dreary. Humid conditions prevail with highs in the upper 70s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier and warmer next week before rain chances make a return sometime Thursday/Friday. The cold front to our west passes through the region heading into Monday, clearing skies quickly in its wake. Drier post-frontal air flows into the region, noted by dew points falling into the 50s and low 60s and PWATs to an inch and lower. Temperatures return to more seasonable levels in the 70s and 80s, though it should feel more comfortable than today given the reduced humidity. High pressure steadily builds in through Tuesday into Wednesday as ridging takes place of the troughing from Quebec that will continue to shift off to the east. Clear skies and dry weather prevail through this period. Greater uncertainty reenters the forecast towards Thursday and Friday with the approach and development of another shortwave over the Great Lakes. Ensemble and deterministic guidance does hint at the return of elevated moisture towards this time period, along with rain showers. Latest ensemble guidance has PWAT values returning to around 1.5" Thursday afternoon into Friday, along with more southerly flow towards the surface. Inconsistencies remain among the ensembles, though, regarding the track of the low associated with the shortwave. This also leads to discrepancies regarding the timing of any showers. && .AVIATION /07ZSUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update... Through 12z...Moderate confidence. IFR to LIFR conditions have continued to overspread the region. This will persist into the morning hours. Some spotty showers/light drizzle along with patchy fog have all been observed and can be expected to continue through the rest of the early morning hours. Some heavier showers remain possible towards the Cape and Islands towards sunrise. Not much confidence in these turning into scattered TSRA there, though. Light to calm NE winds. Sunday and Sunday night...Moderate confidence. IFR with localized LIFR this morning. This should improve to MVFR during the day today, and improvement to VFR should occur overnight from W to E as the front pushes through southern New England. Scattered showers and t-storms are possible in the afternoon, particularly in the interior. ENE winds will shift more S towards the afternoon and evening hours, continuing through the night. Winds should remain mostly light, topping out at around 10 kt towards the Cape and Islands, though gusts to 15 kt there are not out of the question. Skies clear heading into Monday morning. Monday...High confidence. Post-front, skies clear and VFR conditions return. Breezy SW winds sustained around 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Some uncertainty regarding showers in the afternoon. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Given scattered nature of possible TSRA towards BDL in the afternoon, maintained in TAF as PROB30. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Tuesday Night: VFR. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Monday...High confidence. Winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through tonight. However, gusts could get close to this criteria during the day Monday following the cold front passing through tonight. Patchy fog over the waters tonight will clear following the front as well. Seas remain between 2-4 ft with 5 ft seas possible tonight in the far ocean waters. Winds shift more S to SW today, continuing through Monday. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Wednesday through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hrencecin AVIATION...Hrencecin MARINE...Hrencecin  564 FXUS62 KFFC 230753 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 353 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry for North Georgia and low chances for thunderstorms (15-20%) across parts of Central Georgia through Tuesday. - Daily rain chances will be on the upswing by mid to late week as a frontal boundary approaches. - Seasonal temperatures are largely expected through the week ahead. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 350 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Currently: Another quiet night/early morning across North and Central Georgia. Temperatures are still warm thanks to high cirrus and midlevel clouds sweeping across the state. Latest readings are in the low 70s. Some low clouds and patchy fog are likely again later this morning but not expecting this to be quite as extensive as yesterday. Precipitation Trends: A secondary surface front will push through the forecast area today as upper troughing digs eastward towards the Atlantic Coast. Isolated thunderstorms will remain a possibility late this afternoon into early evening across parts of Central Georgia. Any stronger storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts due to lingering moisture and adequate instability south of the front. The front should push further into FL and along the GA/SC coastline thus limiting any precipitation coverage/chances even further for Monday. Drier conditions are expected for most to kick off the work week. Heat Trends: Drier air and lower dewpoints will continue to filter in behind the secondary front and will lend to less oppressive heat for most places today and Monday. Daytime temperatures will still largely remain in the 90s but dewpoints in the 60s will make being outside a little less miserable. Overnight temperatures are forecast to fall into the 60s to low 70s (upper 50s at the higher elevations) each night/early morning. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 350 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The forecast area will remain in a northwest flow regime aloft through the bulk of the long term forecast period. Initially, a more comfortable airmass characterized by 60s dewpoints will remain entrenched on Tuesday as a front remains stalled to the south across south Georgia/northern Florida. Moisture will gradually increase through midweek, and disturbances within the northwest flow will provide some opportunity for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. By Thursday into Friday, an additional cold front looks to push southeastward into the forecast area as a trough swings through the Great Lakes. This frontal boundary and increasing moisture will provide an impetus for PoPs to increase more markedly by Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will remain largely close to normal with highs ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s and fairly pleasant morning lows in the 60s for much of north Georgia to lower 70s farther south. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 107 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Mostly VFR through the period. SCT mid-level clouds 5-7kft remain possible thru the night. SHRA/TSRA in Central AL has dissipated and not expecting any redevelopment at/near any TAF sites. Light winds less than 6kts tonight before picking up to 5-10kts by 14z. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... High confidence on all elements. 07 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 93 65 91 65 / 10 10 0 0 Atlanta 92 70 90 69 / 10 10 0 10 Blairsville 84 59 83 60 / 10 10 0 0 Cartersville 91 64 89 64 / 10 10 0 0 Columbus 95 72 93 71 / 20 20 20 10 Gainesville 90 65 88 65 / 10 10 0 0 Macon 95 70 93 69/ 20 20 20 10 Rome 91 64 89 63 / 10 10 0 0 Peachtree City 92 67 90 66 / 10 10 10 10 Vidalia 96 72 95 72 / 20 20 30 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...07  681 FXUS65 KCYS 230756 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 156 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lower coverage of showers and thunderstorms today, mainly further south near the Colorado border and western Nebraska. Brief strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall expected with this activity into this evening. - Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue Monday through the end of the week with slightly above average temperature expected until Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 155 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Current KCYS radar loop shows remnant convective activity weakening early this morning across western Nebraska as the low to midlevels stabilize for the rest of tonight. Will need to monitor the potential for fog with weak south winds and near saturated conditions near the surface. Otherwise, still getting some brief wind gusts of 45 to 55 MPH with the left over convection, but that should end shortly. Disturbance aloft, which aided in most of the convection initiation on Saturday, will continue to push east early this morning and eventually into central and eastern Nebraska by sunrise. With slightly drier and more stable air behind this shortwave disturbance, expect coverage of showers and thunderstorms to be considerably less today. Expect dewpoint to fall into the upper 30s and 40s along and west of the I-25 corridor, possibly as far east as far western Nebraska. No notable forcing today as the flatten ridge amplifies slightly this afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms expected today, but mainly further south along and near the I-80 corridor. Increased POP a bit across western Nebraska with the surface moisture remaining in place. There is more shear across this region as well, so can't rule out a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms. Coverage of severe thunderstorms will be limited, just like on Saturday. Otherwise, surface winds are expected to increase out of the west with gusts of 30 to 45 MPH possible, especially across southeast Wyoming near the wind prone areas and west of the I-25 corridor. For Monday, similar convective environment compared to Sunday but with more midlevel forcing and a bit more low level convergence near the Laramie Range. These factors will help convection initiation which high resolution models all show into the mid to late afternoon and through the evening hours. Increased POP between 25 to 40 percent, especially further south along the Interstate 80 corridor and the mountains. As we head into the evening hours, expect enhanced moisture advection and convergence near the surface as surface winds shift into the east across the eastern plains. With inverted V soundings for much of the day, expect any thunderstorms to produce gusty winds into the evening hours. SPC introduced a Marginal Risk of strong to severe thunderstorms, mainly for strong outflow winds. Remaining very warm or hot during the day with highs in the mid 80s (west) to mid 90s east of the Interstate 25 corridor. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Moving into the work week we'll start off on the hot side with a high pressure ridge firmly in control of the Western US. While temperatures will cool just a couple of degrees compared to Sunday, highs still sit warmer than average by around 5-8 degrees. A cold front will be approaching the region with another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms on tap including locally stronger to weakly severe activity possible. By Tuesday though a backdoor cold front will offer very meager respite as highs drop by around 2-6 degrees, closer to near average but still above by up to a few degrees. Similarly, moisture will continue to remain just above average at around 120-140% of average, equating to PWAT values of 0.75-1.25 inches. While not impressive by any stretch of the imagination, this should continue to fuel daytime thunderstorms with a marginal risk of severe activity. Wednesday through the end of the week look to be largely similar with a steady warming trend, bringing us back to temperatures similar to Monday alongside continued daily afternoon thunderstorm risk under westerly to northwesterly flow. Drier air will slowly infiltrate through the week though, and this will begin to steadily increase our fire weather risk with elevated conditions at least by Friday. Anyone expecting an early end to summer will be sorely disappointed in the last full week of August. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1125 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Showers and thunderstorms will push east through the CWA for the next hour or so and mainly impact KSNY. These storms may lead to lower CIGs and VIS. Then, through the overnight hours, clouds will lift and clear through tomorrow, bringing a return of VFR conditions by the end of this TAF forecast. Breezy winds with gusts 15-25 knots are possible across most terminals except KBFF and KCDR at various times for this TAF period. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...RZ