000 FXUS61 KOKX 230801 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 401 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added in enhanced wording for thunderstorm attributes into today with possible heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail with some thunderstorms. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Chances for showers and thunderstorms through today with low pressure and cold front moving through. Some thunderstorms could be strong with a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. 2) Possible lingering showers Monday into early Monday evening. Otherwise mainly dry with high pressure eventually building back in Monday night into midweek. 3) Chances for showers and thunderstorm return Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Heights lowering in mid levels as a closed low moves eastward. This will introduce colder temperatures aloft and help keep up convective chances. Ahead of a wave of low pressure, low level environment will become more unstable. CAMs depict convection developing more rapidly this morning especially with diurnal heating. The focus seems to be the first half of the day as CAMs really start depleting convective coverage late afternoon into the evening. This will be a high shear, low CAPE environment so there is potential for some thunderstorms to be strong to even severe. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. Threats with thunderstorms will be heavy rain, gusty winds and small hail. There is a marginal risk for damaging winds and large hail. The thunderstorms are expected to be moving fast enough with the shear to mitigate flooding potential. However, minor flooding will still be a possibility with the thunderstorms, especially for low lying, urban and poor drainage areas. Temperatures do not deviate much from normal values through today. .KEY MESSAGE 2... The closed low in the mid levels will continue slowly moving east tonight through Monday and will then slowly move farther northeast. The heights continue to lower tonight through Monday and then will start to rise Monday night. National blend of model dataset keeps dry conditions but CAMs indicate otherwise for Monday with diurnal instability. Would expect isolated to widely scattered showers on Monday with a slight chance of thunderstorms as well. Manually put this in the forecast because national blend of models is not reflecting this potential in its forecast. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions tonight through Monday. A higher confidence of dry conditions for the entire area Monday night through midweek with high pressure building in from the west. Aloft, the height rises continue and the pattern transitions from a trough to quasi-zonal. Temperatures do not deviate much from normal values tonight through midweek. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Model guidance continues to show an upper level trough pushing southeast into the Northeast Thursday into Friday. At the surface, areas of low pressure approach from the west. This will be associated with an approaching frontal system. The forecast has increasing chances of showers Thursday, with showers becoming likely Thursday night for most locations. The forecast showers continue into Friday. There will be possible thunderstorms as well but those probabilities will be less than the showers. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A warm front moves through this morning, followed by a cold front for mid to late evening. Any VFR conditions should give way to MVFR overnight and early this morning. IFR becomes increasingly likely during the morning push, although some terminals will remain MVFR through the remainder of the morning. Showers become increasingly likely over the next few hours, especially closer to 08-09z through 12-13z. PROB30 for TSRA for the mid to late morning until 18-19z. All terminals eventually improve back to VFR this afternoon. Winds shift briefly SE to S Sunday morning, then SW by around noontime for most terminals. Terminals east of NYC shift SW later in the day. Gusts up to 20kt Sunday afternoon are possible. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Brief IFR may occur for the early morning towards the start of the morning push. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Late Sunday night: VFR. Light winds. Monday through Wednesday: VFR. WSW gusts around 20kt on Monday afternoon. Thursday: VFR AM, chance of sub-VFR and PM -shra. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Conditions on the marine zones are still expected to remain below small craft advisory thresholds during the marine forecast period. Pressure gradient overall remains relatively weak. Rip Currents: A moderate risk is expected for both today and Monday. The swell will be primarily from the SE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...JE MARINE...JM  345 FXUS65 KPIH 230806 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 206 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storm Prediction Center has areas of marginal chance and slight chance of severe thunderstorms for today and tonight. - Thunderstorms have less chance of occurrence, but greater severity potential today. - Breezy conditions in the central Idaho mountains and Snake River plain today, even outside thunderstorm activity. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 138 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Southwest upper level flow will continue to bring moist and unstable air into the forecast area. SPC now has an area along the UT border that has a slight chance of severe thunderstorms, meaining large hail or gusts in excess of 50KT/58MPH. The marginal contour around it also covers a large amount of the forecast area. It mainly leaves out the central Idaho mountains, which are in general thunderstorm forecast area. The coverage of thunderstorms shrinks on Mon and Tue. The best thunderstorm coverage Mon is expected to be the highlands along the UT and WY borders. Then on Tue it shift to the north along the MT border. Cloud cover actually decreases in the late morning, which is what allows enough destabilization to increase the intensity if not the coverage of the thunderstorms. Afternoon highs will be cooler today after the cooler air moved in during the evening and late night hours last night. The final thing is that a low moving onshore and through southern Canada will push up the upper level wind over the central Idaho mountains and the northern part of the Snake River plain. This will bring G25KT to G30KT on the ridges in the central Idaho mountains, and G25KT to locations like Rexburg and Idaho Falls and the Arco Desert. Tuesday should be breezy to windy once again. For the extended period, either a partial breakdown of the upper level ridge from a trough coming from the west or at least a flattening of the ridge over Idaho should continue the not as hot temperatures with dry westerly flow supressing showers and thunderstorms, especially after Wed. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1033 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 It will be another round of TSRA developing 23/18Z-23/20Z for all airdromes except one. KSUN appears to dry out to SKC before convection can get going, and, at least for now, does not look to be hampered by TSRA in the afternoon and evening. For the rest, SPC has put them in an area of slight chance of severe TSRA, so have outflow wind of 35G50KT for all of them during the strength of afternoon heating. If the PROB30 group had to be broken up due to increasing clouds, then the evening should not be as strong, perhaps 30G45KT instead. CIGs stay above FL100 except in TSRA, but even then stays VFR. VSBYs could also be reduce to marginal VFR, but only in a TSRA. Final thing is the wind. KSUN, KIDA are both in areas where gusty wind has been expected, so they have some SW wind of 15G25KT likely in the afternoon. KPIH is a close second with sustained at 15KT. The other two KDIJ and KBYI should peak out at around 10KT. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 138 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Abundant lightning yesterday over receptive fuels had at least several starts. The lightning show continues today, but in lower coverage or probability of occurrence. Best coverage will be along the WY border region of the Eastern Idaho Dispatch AoR. Over a good portion of that Dispatch area and the Southern Idaho Dispatch area the expectations are few thunderstorms, but much stronger in intensity, with solid chances of severe strength thunderstorms in both regions. Much of the Central Idaho dispatch area has only general thunderstorms, with the eastern areas getting closer to the marginal risk of severe storms. Cooler air has moved in, but this will be partially offset in western areas by the strong sunshine with less cloudiness. Some lower elevation areas will see humidity readings drop below 15 percent, but it is low elevations from Salmon to Challis where that occurs, where wind will be somewhat lighter. A low moving across the continent from west to east will increase wind today for the central Idaho mountains and portions of the Snake River plain. Critical fire weather conditions will be very close in that Salmon to Challis corridor, but otherwise not expecting anything close to critical. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Messick AVIATION...Messick FIRE WEATHER...Messick  162 FXUS63 KGID 230815 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 315 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms move through the area today. Severe weather is unlikely. - Additional showers and thunderstorms redevelop tonight into Monday morning, although coverage will be more spotty. The threat for severe weather remains low. - Monday will be mostly dry (and warmer) with only a low chance for thunderstorms late Monday night into Tuesday morning. - Better chances for thunderstorms return on Tuesday, along with an increasing threat for severe weather. && .UPDATE... Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 As of 3am, coverage of showers and storms is starting to increase over the Sandhills. This trend is expected to continue as the showers/storms slide through central Nebraska/Kansas this morning. Nearly the entire area should see SOME rain, although amounts will be on the lighter side (less than 0.25" for most). Most locations will dry out this afternoon, although a few showers/storms could linger east of Highway 281 through 3-4pm. Plenty of cloud cover will keep temperatures noticeably cooler. Some spots may struggle to reach 75 degrees, although western zones should see enough clearing to at least reach/exceed 80 degrees. This evening, isolated convection is anticipated the Sandhills, but this should weaken as it moves into central Nebraska. Later overnight, more widespread (but non-severe) convection is expected to redevelop in the warm-air advection regime over eastern Nebraska. This would favor the northeastern half of the area. After early morning storms exit the area, dry conditions are anticipated for the rest of Monday. This should allow temperatures to rebound back closer to normal (80s to the low 90s). A few thunderstorms could slide in from the west early Tuesday morning. The primary severe threat should remain to our west on Tuesday morning. Redevelopment is then likely later in the day as an upper shortwave moves into the area, and some of this could become severe. As such, the SPC has introduced a "Marginal" to "Slight" risk across almost the entire the forecast area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Currently... The day started out on the wet side for a good chunk of the forecast area...as yet another upper level shortwave disturbance (aided by increased lower-level convergence) made its way across the region...with a couple spots producing wind gusts around 60 MPH. That activity exited the area around mid- morning...leaving behind a pretty nice day with plenty of sun. Upper air and satellite data showing continued northwesterly flow in place across the Central Plains this afternoon as the pattern remains well amplified across the CONUS. The main ridge axis extends north through the Rockies from high pressure centered mainly over CO/NM...sandwiched between areas of low pressure/southward extending troughing over northern Ontario and just off the Pac NW coast. At the surface...a large area of high pressure is centered over near the ND/Canada border, with its axis extending south roughly along the MO River. This is keeping winds across the forecast area easterly, with speeds on the lighter side, around 10-15 MPH. No big surprises as far as temperatures go...with mid afternoon readings in the low-mid 80s. This evening on into Sunday... Quiet conditions this afternoon will continue on into the evening hours, before precipitation chances ramp back up later tonight. Off to our west...radar and satellite imagery showing scattered storms developing over the Rockies, as another shortwave disturbance rides around the edge of the ridge, and aided by east-southeasterly lower-level upslope flow. The mainquestion as the late evening-overnight hours pass is how much of this activity is sustained long enough to move into our forecast area. Kept the forecast dry through 06Z...and some of the hi-res models suggest it'd be even later than that by a few hours before activity creeps into our western edge. Aided by lift along an increased, but not overly strong, SSErly low level jet...models are in pretty good agreement showing at least scattered activity making it into the forecast area. The timing may end up not too different than last night with the onset being around 09Z...but models suggest that activity lingers around the area longer, potentially not until early-mid afternoon before sliding off to our east. This activity is not expected to be severe...models still showing that while deeper layer shear isn't bad (30-35ish kts), the main axis of better instability focused just off to our west...so the SPC Day 1 outlook areas remain both west and south of the area. Once the activity pushes east, the rest of the day Sunday is dry, but will likely see more cloud cover linger longer into the day...especially across the eastern half of the area. This would impact high potential for the day...forecast currently has mid 70s in the east to mid 80s in the west (where more sun is possible). Between the sfc high shifting more to our east and low pressure deepening over the High Plains...winds are expected to turn more southerly for Sunday...with the potential for gusts near 20 MPH across areas mainly west of HWY 281. Later Sunday night into the overnight hours...little overall change in the upper level pattern means there will the potential for yet another shortwave disturbance to bring additional storm chances to the area. Main difference during this period is that models still suggesting this disturbance tracks a bit further north (as does better convergence along the LLJ)...and along with warmer mid-level temps the further SW you go, result in these chances more of a glancing shot, focused across the NNErn third or so of the forecast area. Severe weather chances remain low through Sunday night- early Mon AM. Monday and on... Outside of any lingering activity early in the morning, the daytime and at least early evening hours on Monday remain dry. Models showing little movement in the location of the main upper level area high of high pressure and northward extending ridging into the Rockies...but do show that area of low pressure currently off the Pac NW pushing further inland...sliding through the southern half of Saskatchewan during the daytime hours. Precipitation chances do return to the forecast late Monday night-Tuesday AM...but remain low (20-30 percent) as models vary with how much (if any?) activity impacts the forecast area, with the better upper level forcing well to our NW. Later Tuesday (more the evening/overnight hours) may bring better thunderstorm chances to the area...as that main upper low is working its way more into MN, with the trough axis draped further SW into the region. Storms may initially focus along an accompanying sfc frontal boundary (though it's not a strong one)...later aided by an increasing LLJ. Still plenty of uncertainty and details to iron out...as being this far south of the main upper low doesn't do the precip coverage any favors, and with the sfc front and LLJ potentially not overly strong, there are difference with just much activity there ends up being. The rest of the week continues to sound like a broken record...upper level pattern remaining northwesterly (potentially more zonal next weekend), with periodic shortwave disturbances bringing additional precipitation chances (mainly focused in the evening/overnight hours). As far as temperatures go for the new work week...not any significant changes, andnot expecting any notable swings. Forecast highs remain mainly in the 80s, with some 90s working into WSWrn areas. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Currently, a layer of high stratus clouds have drifted in from the west, associated with dying rain showers. However, early Sunday morning, a cluster of showers/thunderstorms are expected to move in from the west. Recent model guidance has slowed down the arrival of these storms, hence the slightly elongated PROB30 window from the last TAF forecast. Additionally, model guidance has continued to show lingering showers/thunderstorms behind the initial cluster, mainly impacting KGRI. This could result in thunderstorm chances lingering into afternoon more than currently laid out in this TAF. However, confidence in the thunderstorm window is not overly high. Following the shower/thunderstorm chances this morning/afternoon, the late afternoon and evening hours appear to be mostly dry and VFR. Skies will gradually clear as the thunderstorms continue to move eastward. Surface winds will be SE around 8-12kt, with gusts up to 20-22kt possible in the afternoon. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Mangels DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...Scott  190 FXUS63 KLBF 230815 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 315 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist across north central Nebraska this morning into the afternoon. This will mainly be areas east of Highway 83. While severe weather is not expected, locally heavy rainfall is possible. - Periodic disturbances will cross an upper level ridge, leading to near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Saturday. - Ridging will amplify across the western CONUS middle to the end of the week, allowing cooler air to back into eastern and northeastern portions of the forecast area. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Showers and thunderstorms driven by the low level jet overnight will continue to persist through the morning across portions of western and north central Nebraska, with the bulk of precipitation remaining east of Highway 83. This southerly to southeasterly push from the low level jet will help maintain dewpoints in the 60s across the region, continuing to provide ample surface moisture. Additionally, seeing some moisture advection aloft maintaining fairly moist profiles through the atmosphere. CAM guidance suggests PWAT values today around 1.5 inches, which is not too far off the 00z LBF sounding showing 1.39 inches from yesterday evening. This abundance of moisture will support a risk for locally heavy rainfall, as well as continued showers and thunderstorms. By the afternoon, as an upper level shortwave tracks across western South Dakota, expecting a weak boundary to track across the region. Guidance highlights this best with a wind shift around 850 mb coinciding with a theta-e gradient at the surface. This should be just sufficient enough to continue showers and thunderstorms across eastern portions of the region this afternoon, mainly east of Highway 83 and most likely even east of Highway 183 in north central Nebraska. With this relatively persistent signal for rain, as well as potential for heavy rainfall at times, WPC has put eastern portions of the CWA under a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall. With this persistent rain and cloud cover, will be very hard to build any meaningful instability across eastern portions of the region, so believe the severe weather risk will remain low today. Behind the precipitation, while some instability may build, expecting more stable conditions in the environment which will likely limit shower and thunderstorm potential. Additional low level jet forcing Sunday night may bring even more showers and thunderstorms across portions of north central Nebraska, again remaining mostly east of the Highway 183 corridor. Again, not expecting that the environment will be supportive of severe weather, but locally heavy rainfall as well as persistent rainfall will be possible overnight. As the boundary pushes out of the region, also cutting off the low level jet, expecting a bit of a break in the precipitation Monday morning and afternoon. However, will see the ability for instability to build across the region Monday afternoon, as mostly clear skies are expected, especially for areas west of Highway 83. As like most days in the recent pattern, surface dewpoints remain in the upper 50s to 60s across the region, providing ample low level moisture. By late afternoon, may begin to see a few thunderstorms begin to develop across western Nebraska, and given that instability should build throughout the day combined with stronger upper level support, could see a few strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into the evening. Much will depend on the evolving mesoscale environment over the next 24 to 36 hours on how convection playsout. At this time, there does appear to be potential for some large hail and damaging wind gusts, but will continue to refine this forecast as the mesoscale environment changes. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 An upper level trough of low pressure, will traverse south central Canada Monday afternoon into Monday night, forcing a cold front through the forecast area. The latest deterministic NAM12 and GFS solns along with the NBM ensembles indicate a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms across a large portion of the forecast area with the best chances across the west and southwest. The latest NBM ensembles indicate 60 to 70 percent chance of exceeding 0.10" of precipitation Monday night generally west of a line from Gordon to Broken Bow. The NBM forecast for tonight has some high chance and low likely pops in the eastern panhandle and southwestern Nebraska Monday night and this looks on track. The upper level low/trough, will track into the northern Great Lakes Tuesday into Tuesday night allowing the ridge to amplify across the western CONUS. Northwesterly flow aloft will continue into the end of the week with periodic shortwaves tracking across the central plains. This will lead to daily precipitation chances through the end of the period. Temperatures will be coolest in the east and northeast with daily highs in the lower 80s. Across the eastern panhandle and southwestern Nebraska, daily highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are expected to track east across western Nebraska and the Sandhills overnight, tracking into north central Nebraska by the morning. For now, mostly low end VFR conditions are occurring, but expecting a drop to MVFR conditions as coverage increases tonight. Any thunderstorm will bring the risk for gusty, erratic winds and brief visibility restrictions. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger through the early afternoon across north central Nebraska, remaining mostly east of KVTN. As storms track east of the terminals, though clouds are expected to begin decreasing, the remaining clouds may remain low end VFR. Gusty winds are expected through the late morning and afternoon, with gusts calming by the evening, as an inversion develops. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Richie LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...Richie  506 FXUS63 KFGF 230822 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 322 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Hail to the size of golf balls and wind gusting to 70 mph will be the main threats. && .UPDATE... Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Patchy fog has developed over parts of northwest MN, but impacts have been very brief/localized in the KTVF area. I can't rule out other fog impacts during the morning period due to broad surface ridging and near calm winds along/east of the RRV, however the saturated layer is very shallow and tendency will be for highly localized pockets of ground fog. Looking ahead to Monday's severe chances: There has continued to be a trend over the last 24hr on guidance favoring the frontal zone pushing into our CWA during the afternoon. While larger scale forcing is primarily in Canada or mainly during the late evening/overnight, there should be enough lift associated with the front to support a few thunderstorms potentially initiating during the favorable afternoon/evening period when SBCAPE/DCAPE could be maximized near the frontal zone. Due to increasing mid/upper level flow effective shear values greater than 35kt+ are advertised with generally straight hodographs supportive of splitting supercells. Discrete cells could support sig hail potential, though with shear profiles orientation in relation to the cold front mergers may be more likely if coverage increases. Higher DCAPE and mix layers higher gusts could accompany RFD's, though weaker 0-3km shear lowers confidence in a larger sig wind threat. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...Synopsis... Northwest flow prevails through the forecast period, with the passage of several shortwaves. A weak system moves into central and southeast North Dakota on Sunday, with low chances for a passing afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Best chances will be further west, however. A better chance for showers and storms will occur late Monday into Tuesday, when a stronger shortwave moves southeast out of Manitoba and into northwest and north central Minnesota. This will bring us a chance for isolated severe thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Moving into Tuesday, parts of northwest Minnesota could see an additional round of showers as weak shortwave activity continues. H5 ridging over the western CONUS is expected to flatten, thus weakening our northwest flow heading into the second half of next week. Ensemble guidance suggests additional rain chances as we head into Friday and Saturday, but will ultimately depend on the speed and progression of antecedent shortwave activity and shifts in the overall pattern. ...Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Late Monday... There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into the evening as a moderately strong shortwave pushes across the area. Steep low and mid level lapse rates will be in place during peak heating, with a cold front approaching from the northwest. Modeled surface CAPE ranges from 1500 to 2500 J/Kg across various ensembles and deterministic NAM/NAM Nest. Low to mid level shear is marginal, especially further ahead of the cold front. Hodographs, however, are relatively straight and have a degree of consistency in model soundings. If storms are able to form, there should be just enough shear to allow a mention of supercells, with a chance for splitting supercells or hybrid clusters. In a higher impact scenario, supercells form, bringing potential hazards including wind gusts upwards of 75 mph and large hail to the size of golf balls. If atmospheric support shifts more towards clusters, the potential hazards could include wind gusts upwards of 70 mph and hail up to the size of ping pong balls. Alternatively, in a lower end scenario, storms form later in the evening and severe storms become less likely, but could still support elevated hail producing storms during the late evening and overnight. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1117 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Cirrus moving in from the west, with all sites remaining VFR throughout the period. Winds will become light and variable, and can't completely rule out some patchy ground fog. However, not a very strong signal and will not include in the TAFs. Winds will begin to increase out of the southeast for the ND airports during the day tomorrow. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...DJR DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...JR  497 FXUS66 KMFR 230822 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 122 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Quiet weather is expected for the next several days, with seasonal warmth continuing for most areas. * Temperatures peak about 5 to 10 degrees above normal on Monday before returning to seasonal levels near midweek. * There will be a slight chance (15-20 percent) of thunderstorms over far eastern Lake and Modoc counties Monday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION...An upper trough is passing overhead today, which will help to keep temperatures at seasonal levels. The trough will then pass to the northeast tonight into Monday, allowing the Four-Corners ridge to retrograde just a bit to the west. The northwestern periphery of this ridge will nudge in overhead Monday into Tuesday, while a thermal trough redevelops along the coast. This will warm temperatures by about 5 to 10 degrees, producing warmer than normal late August highs,and keeping the area dry. There is a slight chance that increased moisture entering the area within the southwest flow aloft could interact with a weak impulse, producing some weak instability, and an isolated shower or thunderstorm or two is possible over eastern Modoc and southeastern Lake counties, mainly along the Warner and Hart mountains, where lifting will be slightly stronger. The warming of Monday and Tuesday will be shortlived, however, as another trough digs southward offshore of British Columbia, arriving off the coast of the Pacific Northwest by midweek. The trough will push the ridge to the east, bringing temperatures back to more seasonal levels for the remainder of the week. Minor disturbances in the persistent southwest upper-level flow next week may result in breezy to gusty afternoon winds at times, especially if another dry front or two pass through the area. Latest guidance suggests this would most likely occur around Wednesday, and again over the weekend. Otherwise, quiet, seasonable weather is expected through the remainder of the month. && .AVIATION...23/12Z TAFs...A mix of IFR and MVFR marine stratus over the Oregon coast and into the lower Umpqua Valley will persist through this morning, with areas of drizzle likely for areas along and west of the coastal mountains. MVFR ceilings have already pushed well into the Umpqua Basin early this morning. Improvement to VFR will be slow, with many areas not clearing to VFR until early afternoon, and the immediate coast not expected to fully clear at all. IFR/LIFR is expected to develop at the immediate coast, Coquille Valley, and lower Umpqua Valley after 04Z this evening. Otherwise, inland areas will remain VFR through the TAF period, with mostly clear skies. Winds will increase again this afternoon, but will be weaker than in recent days with gusts mainly at 10 to 15 kt. && .MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Sunday, August 23, 2026...Southerly winds will shift to the north and increase this morning as a thermal trough develops along the coast. Gusty north winds and steep wind- driven seas will persist through Monday morning. The main belt of stronger winds will push into the outer waters Monday afternoon and evening, with a southerly surge of wind and fog along the inner waters Monday night into Tuesday. Generally light winds and calm seas are then expected through Friday with low pressure persisting over the northeastern Pacific. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ370-376. && $$  836 FXUS63 KFGF 230828 CCA AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 328 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Hail to the size of golf balls and wind gusting to 70 mph will be the main threats. && .UPDATE... Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Patchy fog has developed over parts of northwest MN, but impacts have been very brief/localized in the KTVF area. I can't rule out other fog impacts during the morning period due to broad surface ridging and near calm winds along/east of the RRV, however the saturated layer is very shallow and tendency will be for highly localized pockets of ground fog. Looking ahead to Monday's severe chances: There has continued to be a trend over the last 24hr on guidance favoring the frontal zone pushing into our CWA during the afternoon. While larger scale forcing is primarily in Canada or mainly during the late evening/overnight, there should be enough lift associated with the front to support a few thunderstorms potentially initiating during the favorable afternoon/evening period when SBCAPE/DCAPE could be maximized near the frontal zone. Due to increasing mid/upper level flow effective shear values greater than 35kt+ are advertised with generally straight hodographs supportive of splitting supercells. Discrete cells could support sig hail potential, though with shear profiles orientation in relation to the cold front mergers may be more likely if coverage increases. Higher DCAPE and mix layers higher gusts could accompany RFD's, though weaker 0-3km shear lowers confidence in a larger sig wind threat. The best chance for thunderstorms is actually later as the main wave passes to the north in Canada and better forcing moves through our region. If thunderstorms fail to initiate early on, the tendency would be for lower impacts from thunderstorm activity that would be much more elevated in nature later in the evening/overnight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...Synopsis... Northwest flow prevails through the forecast period, with the passage of several shortwaves. A weak system moves into central and southeast North Dakota on Sunday, with low chances for a passing afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Best chances will be further west, however. A better chance for showers and storms will occur late Monday into Tuesday, when a stronger shortwave moves southeast out of Manitoba and into northwest and north central Minnesota. This will bring us a chance for isolated severe thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Moving into Tuesday, parts of northwest Minnesota could see an additional round of showers as weak shortwave activity continues. H5 ridging over the western CONUS is expected to flatten, thus weakening our northwest flow heading into the second half of next week. Ensemble guidance suggests additional rain chances as we head into Friday and Saturday, but will ultimately depend on the speed and progression of antecedent shortwave activity and shifts in the overall pattern. ...Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Late Monday... There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into the evening as a moderately strong shortwave pushes across the area. Steep low and mid level lapse rates will be in place during peak heating, with a cold front approaching from the northwest. Modeled surface CAPE ranges from 1500 to 2500 J/Kg across various ensembles and deterministic NAM/NAM Nest. Low to mid level shear is marginal, especially further ahead of the cold front. Hodographs, however, are relatively straight and have a degree of consistency in model soundings. If storms are able to form, there should be just enough shear to allow a mention of supercells, with a chance for splitting supercells or hybrid clusters. In a higher impact scenario, supercells form, bringing potential hazards including wind gusts upwards of 75 mph and large hail to the size of golf balls. If atmospheric support shifts more towards clusters, the potential hazards could include wind gusts upwards of 70 mph and hail up to the size of ping pong balls. Alternatively, in a lower end scenario, storms form later in the evening and severe storms become less likely, but could still support elevated hail producing storms during the late evening and overnight. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1117 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Cirrus moving in from the west, with all sites remaining VFR throughout the period. Winds will become light and variable, and can't completely rule out some patchy ground fog. However, not a very strong signal and will not include in the TAFs. Winds will begin to increase out of the southeast for the ND airports during the day tomorrow. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...DJR DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...JR  864 FXUS65 KRIW 230829 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 229 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Monsoonal moisture hangs around again today with more scattered showers and thunderstorms, and another risk for heavy rainfall and local flooding. - A few storms may become strong to severe, with wind gusts to 60 mph or over the main threat. - Monsoonal moisture will linger much of the week, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. Temperatures will average above normal through the period, but not overly hot. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 It was a typical monsoon day yesterday, with some areas, mainly in southwest and in Johnson and Natrona Counties getting a LOT of rain, causing some local flooding. Other areas saw nothing. And we continue to have some showers and embedded thunder around late tonight, although intensity is significantly less. And these will continue through the night, gradually becoming weaker and less numerous. We will have another round of showers and storms today. There are some differences. For one, precipitable water values are less today by about 20 percent in most locations. This should bring less coverage and somewhat lesser rainfall rates. The other difference is that there will be more steering flow today, generally about 10 to 15 knots at 700 millibars and 25 to 35 knots at 500 millibars. So storms should have more movement. This should decrease the chance of flooding somewhat. We still have an excessive rainfall outlook across the entire area though, so the threat is still there. There is also the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. Most of the area is under a marginal risk of severe weather today. There could be some small hail, but this not the main risk. The main risk looks to be strong wind gusts. Roughly north and west of a Buffalo to Riverton to Lyman line has a Conditional 1 outlook for wind, or possible convective wind gusts to 75 mph. Soundings do show some inverted V profiles, especially across northwestern Wyoming where the surface will be drier, with low and mid level lapse rates close to 9 C/Km. This could lead to some strong downburst winds later today. Again, the best chance would be across the northwest but most areas will have a chance. And, like previous nights, most convection should end after sunset but a few showers and storms will likely linger through the night. As for temperatures, they should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with more sunshine expected. The rest of the week looks like more of the same as the annoying monsoonal moisture will hang around the area through at least Thursday and possibly into Friday as well. The models continue to have different ideas on which day will be more active with no real well defined shortwaves with changes from day to day. Precipitable water generally average about 125 to 150 percent of normal through the period though. So, at this point we went with a generic solution of mainly diurnal showers and storms each afternoon. Temperatures should remain fairly similar through the period, not very hot but averaging around 4 to 8 degrees above normal on average, with the possibility of a cooler day if there is more cloud cover than expected. Drier air may then work in for next weekend and bring a return to drier weather but uncertainty remains high on the exact timing. So, all in all, it continues to look like more of the same as the summer of the monsoon lives on in western and central Wyoming. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1000 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A line of showers and thunderstorms will continue over the western mountains and move into the central basins by the start of the TAF period. KRIW and KLND have the greatest confidence and have added prob30 groups through 09Z. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will impact KBPI/KPNA through 08Z. Showers are expected to impact KCPR and KRKS from 09Z to 13Z. Skies will clear, becoming SKC by 15Z/16Z. Winds will begin to increase at KCPR around this time, with gusts around 25kt expected through 00Z. Similar winds will develop at KRKS by 18Z, KCOD and KBPI by 19Z and KRIW by 21Z. Confidence has lowered for thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, with KJAC and KRKS having the best chances so far. Showers and thunderstorms could develop in the central basins by 21Z, but do not have high enough confidence in including in the KCOD, KWRL, KLND or KRIW forecasts at this time. Additional showers and thunderstorms look to push into southwestern portions again Sunday evening and could impact KBPI/KPNA and KRKS between 03Z and 06Z Monday. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...LaVoie/Wittmann  161 FXUS63 KTOP 230832 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 332 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Scattered showers are possible today, with higher chances for storms occurring tonight. -Without a significant change in the pattern, there will continue to be occasional chances for storms through the upcoming workweek. -Cooler today, then temperatures warm back to near average. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Early this morning, a small complex of storms was moving into western KS. Those storms are associated with a shortwave on the northern periphery of the mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern CONUS. Storms will struggle to maintain strength and will likely evolve into widely scattered rain showers as the complex moves into central and eastern KS due to minimal amounts of instability and weak shear. Thus, POPs are mainly in the 20 to 30 percent range throughout the day. Temperatures will also struggle to warm due to cloud cover, which will keep highs on the cool side of average, mainly in the low 80s today. Tonight will bring a higher probability (40-60%) for thunderstorms in response to isentropic ascent on the edge of an increasing LLJ. While there will be more instability to work with, severe weather is not expected overnight. Lingering showers/storms in far eastern KS should dissipate by late morning tomorrow, and afternoon sunshine should allow temps to warm back to near average in the mid to upper 80s along and south of I-70 (slightly cooler north). Another chance for rain arrives in central/north-central KS on Tuesday as another shortwave travels through the northwest flow aloft. POPs expand eastward across the area Tuesday night and early Wednesday along a surface boundary associated with a stronger system over the Great Lakes. Long range models agree on keeping conditions dry on Thursday, but with a similar pattern remaining in place, will have to monitor for the occasional shortwave bringing more rounds of rain late in the week. In the meantime, temperatures will remain near average with lows in the mid 60s and highs in the mid to upper 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 There remains a slight chance for showers Sunday morning and midday. Have continued the PROB30 for KMHK where chances still appear to be a little higher than further east at KTOP/KFOE. If rain approaches, amendments may be needed at all sites once confidence increases on timing. VFR is expected outside of rain and sfc winds should remain light, less than 10 kts. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Teefey AVIATION...Teefey  269 FXUS61 KOKX 230835 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 435 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added in enhanced wording for thunderstorm attributes into today with possible heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail with some thunderstorms. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Chances for showers and thunderstorms through today with low pressure and cold front moving through. Some thunderstorms could be strong with a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. 2) Possible lingering showers Monday into early Monday evening. Otherwise mainly dry with high pressure eventually building back in Monday night into midweek. 3) Chances for showers and thunderstorm return Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Heights lowering in mid levels as a closed low moves eastward. This will introduce colder temperatures aloft and help keep up convective chances. Ahead of a wave of low pressure, low level environment will become more unstable. CAMs depict convection developing more rapidly this morning especially with diurnal heating. The focus seems to be the first half of the day as CAMs really start depleting convective coverage late afternoon into the evening. This will be a high shear, low CAPE environment so there is potential for some thunderstorms to be strong to even severe. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. Threats with thunderstorms will be heavy rain, gusty winds and small hail. There is a marginal risk for damaging winds and large hail. The thunderstorms are expected to be moving fast enough with the shear to mitigate flooding potential. However, minor flooding will still be a possibility with the thunderstorms, especially for low lying, urban and poor drainage areas. Temperatures do not deviate much from normal values through today. .KEY MESSAGE 2... The closed low in the mid levels will continue slowly moving east tonight through Monday and will then slowly move farther northeast. The heights continue to lower tonight through Monday and then will start to rise Monday night. National blend of model dataset keeps dry conditions but CAMs indicate otherwise for Monday with diurnal instability. Would expect isolated to widely scattered showers on Monday with a slight chance of thunderstorms as well. Manually put this in the forecast because national blend of models is not reflecting this potential in its forecast. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions tonight through Monday. A higher confidence of dry conditions for the entire area Monday night through midweek with high pressure building in from the west. Aloft, the height rises continue and the pattern transitions from a trough to quasi-zonal. Temperatures do not deviate much from normal values tonight through midweek. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Model guidance continues to show an upper level trough pushing southeast into the Northeast Thursday into Friday. At the surface, areas of low pressure approach from the west. This will be associated with an approaching frontal system. The forecast has increasing chances of showers Thursday, with showers becoming likely Thursday night for most locations. The forecast showers continue into Friday. There will be possible thunderstorms as well but those probabilities will be less than the showers. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A warm front moves through this morning, followed by a cold front for mid to late evening. Primarily MVFR through early this morning. IFR becomes increasingly likely into the morning push, although some terminals will remain MVFR through the remainder of the morning. A line of showers with embedded thunder approaching KEWR and KTEB towers with impact until about 1030z with TEMPO group for TSRA at these terminals. PROB30 groups for TSRA at most terminals for the mid to late morning until 18-19z. All terminals eventually improve back to VFR this afternoon. Winds shift briefly SE to S this morning, then SW by around noontime for most terminals. Terminals east of NYC shift SW later in the day. Gusts up to 20kt Sunday afternoon are possible. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Brief IFR may occur for the morning push with amendments possible for TSRA for the next few hours and later this morning as well. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Late Sunday night: VFR. Light winds. Monday through Wednesday: VFR. WSW gusts around 20kt on Monday afternoon. Thursday: VFR AM, chance of sub-VFR and PM -shra. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Conditions on the marine zones are still expected to remain below small craft advisory thresholds during the marine forecast period. Pressure gradient overall remains relatively weak. Rip Currents: A moderate risk is expected for both today and Monday. The swell will be primarily from the SE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...JE MARINE...JM  274 FXUS62 KKEY 230836 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 436 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Conditions remain somewhat favorable for an island cloud line and associated waterspouts today. - Rain and thunder chances will gradually return to near normal by early to middle part of the week. - Highs near 90 and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s suggest afternoon heat indices will peak at 105 to 108 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 CIMSS products shows a split ridge pattern in place across the Florida Keys. One ridge is currently centered over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle with the other one centered over the eastern subtropical Atlantic, just southwest of the Azores. In between these two ridges is a deep trough across much of the eastern United States. Florida remains in between the larger synoptic scale systems keeping a col region in place for the time being. However, periodically the ridge over the Atlantic nudges slightly further west to influence the breezes. Marine observation platforms surrounding the Island Chain are recording east to southeast breezes of 5 to 10 knots which is slightly stronger than earlier in the evening when breezes were variable. GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products shows a swath of 1.3 to 1.6 inch estimated PWATs across the Keys. This is between the 10th to 25th percentile for the date. KBYX radar has detected isolated showers and thunderstorms overnight with most of the activity across the SE Gulf waters. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the mid 80s and dew points are in the mid to upper 70s. The cool spot is Big Pine Key where the RAWS has dipped to 77 degrees so far due to some radiational cooling. .FORECAST... Mostly dry air will continue to be the main story for the next couple of days across the Keys. However, just enough moisture is available to support slight chances of showers and thunderstorms through at least Monday night. Weak ridging will also continue to dominate with mainly southeast breezes occasionally becoming variable this afternoon and early evening. The ridge over the Atlantic builds a little further westward tonight into Monday leading to an increasing influence across the area resulting in freshening east to southeast breezes. Since the flow is expected to mainly be light today, there is the potential for a weak cloud line this afternoon. The main inhibiting factor will be the dry air that is in place. Otherwise, the warmer than normal weather will continue be the main story with daytime highs near 90 degrees. Overnight lows won't provide much relief in the lower to mid 80s while dew points remain in the mid to upper 70s. Moisture is expected to increase across the region beginning Tuesday with this continuing throughout the week. A more typical pattern for this time of the year is expected to ensue with more frequent and widespread showers and thunderstorms. The ridge across the North Atlantic will keep its western periphery across the Keys leading to moisture undulations as well as peaking and lulling east to southeast breezes. Breezes will peak overnight into the morning before lulling during the afternoons. Daytime highs near 90 degrees continue through the week, though, overnight lows will dip some due to the increased rain chances into the lower 80s. TROPICS: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor 3 areas across the Atlantic Ocean with none of these systems currently posing a threat to the Keys. The area across the Eastern Tropical Atlantic has a low or near 0 percent chance of formation over 48 hours with a medium or 50% chance of development over the next 7 days. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a split ridge pattern remains in place across the Florida Keys coastal waters. This will promote generally light to gentle southeast to east breezes through tonight, becoming variable at times during the afternoon hours. While North Atlantic ridging builds westward, southeasterly to easterly breezes will become more established from tonight through the middle of next week, becoming gentle and at times moderate during the overnight hours. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. Near surface winds will remain mostly southeasterly, though there is the potential for a period of light and variable winds this afternoon continuing into the early evening hours. In addition, a weak cloud line is possible today which keeps the risk for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Due to timing and placement uncertainty, VCSH was not included in the TAF. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1895, the daily record warm low temperature of 85F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. On this day in 1975, the daily record warm low temperature of 85F was recorded in Marathon. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1951. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 84 91 84 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 91 83 91 82 / 10 10 10 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest  787 FXUS61 KCTP 230847 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 447 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Adjusted POPS up for Central and Southern PA today by about 20 percent from NBM guidance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unseasonably deep upper low over the Upper Great Lakes today will move Southeast to Lake Ontario by Monday morning bringing another few rounds of showers and thunderstorms, mainly across Northern PA this afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Unseasonably deep upper low over the Upper Great Lakes today will move Southeast to Lake Ontario by Monday morning bringing another few rounds of showers and thunderstorms, mainly across Northern PA this afternoon and evening. A subtle shortwave trough rotating around the southeast side of the upper low will spark some afternoon/evening showers and TSRA today, followed by only a brief downtrend in convection before a well-defined trough moves SE with its axis near the PA/OH border by shortly after midnight tonight. HREF and SREF MUCAPEs will top out between 750-1000 j/kg with wet bulb zero levels descending about 3-4 KFT to only around 6 KFT AGL across the Northern Mtns this afternoon and tonight. It's almost a slam dunk to see some periods of significant small hail from the stronger low-topped TSRA between 18Z Sun and 00Z Monday across the NW and maybe the Central/Ncent Mtns. SPC has a marginal risk of SVR TSRA for today across all of the CWA except for the southern tier layer of counties. Coincidentally, NBM POPS had to be raised by at least 20 percent (to agree with the SPC outlook) across the Central and Scent Mtns along with much of the Middle and Lower Susq Valley where a relative min of zero to 10 POPs was noted. Luckily, this second and more potent upper trough will be pivoting over the Commonwealth overnight tonight with MUCAPE of only a few hundred J/KG, supporting mainly showers and perhaps a low-topped TSRA or two moving inland from the warm waters of Lake Erie. Maxes only in the 60s and a brisk W wind across the northern and western mtns will make it feel much more like Sept/Oct than mid- Aug. Valley locations will see more sun preceding any convection with high temps reaching the mid 70s to near 80F in the Lower Susq Valley. Similar conditions are expected for Monday with the center of the upper low still hanging around our longitude and only moving slowly poleward. The SHRA/TSRA will likely be confined to only the nrn tier of counties in PA on Monday. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Working both shifts today, so 00Z TAF set done largely already earlier this aft (18Z set), so main adjustment for the new set is for timing of showers and storms as of early evening. Back edge to most everything is near the PA, OH border. More information below. Showers are pivoting east and will only impact MDT and LNS for another hour or two as of 06Z. Some back end, scattered light showers have been noted too which may impact UNV and possibly IPT if they hold together. The main restrictions tonight look to be in the form of low ceilings as high clouds move out of the area. Forecaster confidence in exact impacts is on the lower side, particularly in relation to what degree low level moisture will affect visibility. Regardless, widespread MVFR ceilings leading into IFR ceilings overnight looks to be the most likely solution at this time. As the sun rises, current guidance favors MVFR ceilings lingering into mid-morning. Once daytime convection kicks in and cloud ceilings raise, VFR will be favored through tomorrow. Lake effect rain bands are possible in the northwest, which may impact BFD, although exact timing is uncertain. Added PROB30 to highlight best chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Cooling temperatures aloft behind the front and a 20+kt 850mb jet should allow for gusty westerly winds tomorrow. Outlook... Mon-Wed...Patchy morning fog, otherwise mainly VFR conditions return early next week with lower statewide precipitation chances. Thu...Chance of showers and storms again. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Dangelo KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo AVIATION...Lambrech  751 FXUS63 KLSX 230846 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 346 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will remain in the 80s across most of the area this week with relatively low humidity. While there are intermittent low chances for rain, the weather should be dry for the majority of the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A ridge of high pressure extending south from Canada into the Mid Mississippi Valley will control our weather today. Light northwest flow at the surface will keep temperatures 3-5 degrees below normal in the low to mid 80s, as well as allow relatively dry air to continue to filter into the region. The ridge will drift east tonight, and winds will become light and variable, and then turn to the south-southwest along and east of the Mississippi. Forecast soundings suggest there will be intermittent mid and high ceilings moving into the area from the northwest during the evening. However, there should be sufficient time with clear to scattered clouds that radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop to near the dew point in the mid 50s to low 60s in most locations. Slightly warmer temperatures in the mid 60s are likely in central Missouri where the wind turns back to the south earlier and there will likely be more clouds. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The general long wave pattern remains in place through next week with a ridge over the Intermountain West and a trough extending south from Canada through the Great Lakes Region into the Southeast U.S. The trough attenuates somewhat early in the week allowing the ridge to build eastward a bit which will warm temperatures from the low 80s on Monday into the mid and upper 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. Deterministic guidance shows two weak short waves moving across the Mississippi Valley Monday and Tuesday. While these waves are weak and fast-moving, they do force some weak low level cyclogenesis over the Plains which turns 805mb flow to the southwest over Missouri. The southwest flow produces some modest moisture convergence but relatively dry southeast surface flow from the retreating high over the Ohio Valley will undercut this moisture convergence. Models spit out some light QPF which grazes central and some of eastern Missouri, but the chance that much measurable rain will reach the ground looks low due to the dry low levels. A more substantial short wave dives through the Midwest Wednesday which pushes a cold front through Missouri and Illinois Wednesday night. Guidance is inconclusive on precipitation chances as the front moves through low level moisture return looks limited ahead of it. Regardless, the short wave briefly re-amplifies the eastern long wave and front brings slightly cooler air into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Temperatures fall 2-5 degrees for the end of the week back into the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR flight conditions and light northwest flow is expected to prevail through Sunday. There will likely be some river fog again Monday morning which will locally reduce the visibility to 1SM or less. Any fog that develops should dissipate quickly after sunrise. Winds will become light and variable late Monday afternoon, and then turn to the south-southeast across Missouri in the evening as high pressure drifts into Illinois and Indiana. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Carney LONG TERM...Carney AVIATION...Carney  039 FXUS64 KHUN 230854 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 354 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New NEAR TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 354 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - There are low to medium chances of thunderstorms for much of next week. However, timing and impact confidence remains low at this time. && .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 354 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Northwest flow aloft of 25-35 knots this morning will gradually subside over the course of the day as a northern stream trough (over OT) phases with a smaller disturbance to its south to form a partially cutoff low over the eastern Great Lakes. At the surface, a large ridge of high pressure (centered over southern MB and adjacent portions of OT) will shift slowly eastward as this occurs, with its influence expected to extend as far southeastward as the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. A weak cold front (marking the leading edge of the drier/continental airmass) will continue to advance southward across the local CWFA early this morning, and although it would not be out of the realm of possibility to see a light shower develop near the wind shift axis, most locations will remain dry. Redevelopment of thunderstorms this afternoon (in the vicinity of the boundary layer moisture gradient) should occur across central/southern portions of the Gulf Coast states, and for this reason we will retain a dry and mostly sunny forecast for our region. After morning lows in the 65-70F range, afternoon highs will be a few degrees cooler (85-90F), which will feel even more pleasant as dewpoints mix down into the u50s-l60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Sunday will be a sunny and less humid day as high pressure expands into the OH and TN valleys from the upper Midwest. Highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90 with dew points falling into the lower to middle 60s. Northwesterly flow at 5h will bring a series of weak disturbances southeast Sunday night into Tuesday. A pronounced low to mid level theta-E gradient and convergence zone will lie from MO through northeast AR into northern MS into western AL during this time, keeping our are susceptible to at least low chances of showers or thunderstorms. These would be higher based/elevated in nature. The chances will be greatest (30-50%) on Tuesday. Highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90 with lows mainly in the 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 We will continue to be in a northwest flow regime aloft for most of the long term period. However, by Saturday, this pattern begins to break down as the upper trough to the north/northeast flattens and the upper ridge over the Desert Southwest flattens as well and pushes farther east into the ArkLaTex. A lingering surface boundary will also persist over the Southeast into Thursday before what looks like a reinforcing cold front swings through. By late week and into the first part of next weekend high pressure builds over the Appalachians and Ohio Valley. Overall, highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s will be common through the period. In addition, the above pattern will lead to daily chances of showers and storms from Tuesday through Thursday at least. Expecting lower chances come Friday/Saturday. The best chances look to be during the afternoon and evening hours, during peak heating when storms can take advantage of the greater thermodynamics in place. Ample instability in addition to bulk shear between 20-30 knots, 0-3km lapse rates between 7-8 deg C/km, along with DCAPE around or above 1000 J/kg, will warrant us keeping an eye on the forecast for at least strong to severe downburst potential Wednesday and Thursday. As has been the case recently, the main hazards are likely to be damaging winds, frequent lightning, and perhaps some hail (but freezing levels may be too high). As for heavy rain and flooding concerns, this will need to be monitored as well, since most PWATS are generally between 1.7-2.0 inches Tuesday through Thursday. These values are between the 75th and 90th percentiles when compared to BMX Sounding Climatology, which means that showers and storms will be efficient rainfall producers. Stay weather aware especially if you work outside or have outdoor activities and check back for forecast updates! && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 131 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Sfc observations suggest that a weak cold front will continue to track southward thru the TN Valley early this morning. Although a few light SHRA may sporadically develop in the vicinity of the front, chances for impactful precipitation are too low to include in the TAFs attm. Otherwise, satellite data indicates that a broken layer of mid-level As will expand eastward thru sunrise, providing VFR cigs ~10 kft. However, this cloud deck should rapidly disperse after 12Z, with only a few fair-weather Cu and few Ci expected during the day. The coverage of high-lvl clouds in NW flow aloft will begin to increase this evening, perhaps becoming broken by the end of the TAF period. Sfc winds will range from 340-020 at 5-10 kts today, but should veer to NE and diminish after sunset this evening. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...70/DD SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM...17 AVIATION...70/DD