216 FXUS65 KRIW 231101 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 501 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Monsoonal moisture hangs around again today with more scattered showers and thunderstorms, and another risk for heavy rainfall and local flooding. - A few storms may become strong to severe, with wind gusts to 60 mph or over the main threat. - Monsoonal moisture will linger much of the week, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. Temperatures will average above normal through the period, but not overly hot. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 It was a typical monsoon day yesterday, with some areas, mainly in southwest and in Johnson and Natrona Counties getting a LOT of rain, causing some local flooding. Other areas saw nothing. And we continue to have some showers and embedded thunder around late tonight, although intensity is significantly less. And these will continue through the night, gradually becoming weaker and less numerous. We will have another round of showers and storms today. There are some differences. For one, precipitable water values are less today by about 20 percent in most locations. This should bring less coverage and somewhat lesser rainfall rates. The other difference is that there will be more steering flow today, generally about 10 to 15 knots at 700 millibars and 25 to 35 knots at 500 millibars. So storms should have more movement. This should decrease the chance of flooding somewhat. We still have an excessive rainfall outlook across most ares West of the Divide though, so the threat is still there. There is also the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. Most of the area is under a marginal risk of severe weather today. There could be some small hail, but this not the main risk. The main risk looks to be strong wind gusts. Roughly north and west of a Buffalo to Riverton to Lyman line has a Conditional 1 outlook for wind, or possible convective wind gusts to 75 mph. Soundings do show some inverted V profiles, especially across northwestern Wyoming where the surface will be drier, with low and mid level lapse rates close to 9 C/Km. This could lead to some strong downburst winds later today. Again, the best chance would be across the northwest but most areas will have a chance. And, like previous nights, most convection should end after sunset but a few showers and storms will likely linger through the night. As for temperatures, they should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with more sunshine expected. The rest of the week looks like more of the same as the annoying monsoonal moisture will hang around the area through at least Thursday and possibly into Friday as well. The models continue to have different ideas on which day will be more active with no real well defined shortwaves with changes from day to day. Precipitable water generally average about 125 to 150 percent of normal through the period though. So, at this point we went with a generic solution of mainly diurnal showers and storms each afternoon. Temperatures should remain fairly similar through the period, not very hot but averaging around 4 to 8 degrees above normal on average, with the possibility of a cooler day if there is more cloud cover than expected. Drier air may then work in for next weekend and bring a return to drier weather but uncertainty remains high on the exact timing. So, all in all, it continues to look like more of the same as the summer of the monsoon lives on in western and central Wyoming. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 416 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A few showers will linger early this morning in vicinity of KCPR and KRKS until around 13Z to 14Z, followed by a clearing sky. Today will be another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the best chance of a shower or thunderstorm after 20Z until around 04Z Monday. The best chance is across the northwestern terminals, especially in vicinity of KJAC which has the highest chance. Most other terminals have around a 20 to 25 percent chance, and PROB30 groups were included for those. The smallest chance is at KCPR, with the chance less than 20 percent so we left thunder out of the forecast for now. However, confidence is low in timing individual showers and storms. A gusty wind will increase in vicinity of KRKS and KCPR this afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Hattings  346 FXUS61 KALY 231102 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 702 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across eastern NY and western New England today. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated severe thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon, with damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy downpours the primary hazards. 2) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday and Tuesday, especially near and north of I-90. 3) Chances of showers and thunderstorms return late next week as temperatures trend warmer. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Latest water vapor imagery shows our parent trough centered just north of the Great Lakes with a secondary shortwave rounding the base through the Ohio Valley. An area of rain and thunderstorms continues to push through PA early this morning ahead of the occluded boundary within a region of diffluent flow downstream of the trough. However, high res and deterministic guidance is in good agreement showing these showers/storms continuing to weaken as they advance north and eastward through sunrise as they outrun the best forcing for ascent. While a few isolated showers develop ahead of the occluded front before sunrise, the weakening area of showers/embedded storms should reach eastern NY and western New England 09 - 15 UTC this morning. The occluded boundary essentially stalls over eastern NY today with the secondary shortwave from the Ohio Valley continuing to rotate into the Northeast, reaching eastern NY by early afternoon. As stronger height falls arrive, expecting scattered clusters of showers/storms to redevelop and track from west to east. Forecast soundings and moisture profiles also show dry air surges into eastern NY/western New England this afternoon as this stronger shortwave arrives. This will help steepen mid- level lapse rates over 6C/km with DCAPE values also rising over 1000 J/kg. The incoming dry air should also help morning stratus break for sun with dew points in the mid to upper 60s supporting sfc-based instability increasing towards 1000 - 1500 J/kg per the REFS and CAMs. Given the incoming closed low, 0-6km shear impressively reaches 40-50kts and 0-3km shear 25-30kts. Despite these favorable ingredients for severe weather, clouds look to break for sun just as the stronger height falls arrive, limiting the time for the atmosphere to destabilize before convective initiates. In addition, low-level forcing is limited to a weakening warm front lifting northward along a washout occluded front. These help explain why the HREF and REFS both only show low probabilities for updraft helicity values exceeding 20m/s mainly 20 - 00 UTC. This indicates that even as isolated to scattered storm clusters initiate mid to late afternoon into the early evening hours, there should only be isolated instances of severe thunderstorms. Given weak updraft growth, there are also questions if any storms can tap into the stronger shear aloft. This matches with SPC's marginal risk (level 1 of 5) in their Day 1 Convective Outlook. Damaging winds remain the primary hazard from any severe storms that form but any storm can also produce frequent lightning as forecast soundings show sufficient instability extending into the favored -10C to -30C region likely due to the cool/dry air tracking in aloft. Storms can also produce heavy downpours given PWATs over 1". Convection dissipates by 0 - 02 UTC with clouds clearing quickly thereafter, supporting radiational fog overnight where heavy rain fell. KEY MESSAGE 2... Our mature closed low slowly propagates into southern Quebec by Monday with its cool pool extending into eastern NY and westernNew England. Southwest flow aloft will maintain elevated dew points in the mid 50s to low 60s with the 500hPa -15C to -18C cool pool aloft supporting steeper mid-level lapse rates 6 - 6.5C/km with morning sun contributing to SB-CAPE values reaching 500 - 1000 J/kg. As a stronger shortwave rotates around the base of the closed low late Monday morning into the afternoon, stronger forcing for ascent should support a more organized area of rain and even embedded thunderstorms tracking west to east. Given the cool pool, storms will not need to become too tall before lightning develops with any taller updrafts capable of small hail. However, forecast soundings shows low EL heights indicating low-topped convection and thus limiting severe weather potential. Winds shift westerly by Monday evening in the wake of the shortwave with cool air advection over the still warm lakes supporting a lake effect and upslope rain response. Therefore, we continue to show likely and categorical POPs in the western Adirondacks with chance POPs in the southern Greens and Mohawk Valley. Westerly flow and the trough axis/cool pool under our very slow moving closed low should maintain at least scattered showers during the day on Tuesday favored near and north of I-90. The western Adirondacks and southern Greens will likely receive the highest rainfall amounts. Instability wanes by Tuesday so any storms should be isolated. KEY MESSAGE 3... High pressure builds back overhead by Wednesday supporting pleasant and dry conditions. However, the dry break does not last long as yet another shortwave trough approaches the Northeast Thursday into Friday. Southwest flow ahead of it will allow humidity levels to rise once again with temperatures trending slightly above normal. Heights fall in response to the approaching trough and eventual cold front looks to support increased chances for showers and thunderstorms both days. However, there remains uncertainties in timing and coverage of shower/storms as there are discrepancies on the strengthen of the incoming cold front and placement of the parent trough in southern Canada. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06z Monday...MVFR conditions prevail across all terminals this morning as an initial batch of showers begins to spread into the area. A brief lowering of ceilings could come along with these showers, though upstream obs and forecast soundings don't allude anything past a lower MVFR ceiling and visibility. TEMPO groups have been added for the next couple of hours to accommodate these anticipated conditions. A break in precipitation comes in a couple of hours before additional scattered convection is expected this afternoon. While it is still difficult to pin down exactly where and when showers and thunderstorms will occur, latest guidance was fairly consistent with the previously issued PROB30 groups. Therefore, maintained the greatest probability of showers and thunderstorms between 21-01z. ALB may have some lingering showers from 16-19z, but confidence is low in this aspect of the forecast. Additionally, we maintained low MVFR conditions with thunderstorms in the aforementioned PROB30s to convey uncertainty not just in the timing and location, but limited confidence in obtaining IFR conditions. Once showers and thunderstorms conclude this evening, a swift return to VFR will occur with rapid improvements to visibility and ceiling height. By late this evening/early tomorrow morning, skies should clear, leading to potential fog formation at all sites by the end of the period. Winds will prevail out of the southeast to start the period this morning, with sustained speeds below 10 kt. Winds will pick up a bit by this afternoon to around 10 kt before shifting to the southwest to northwest this evening. Winds overnight will then be light to calm. Outlook... Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...31 AVIATION...12  296 FXUS63 KIND 231101 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 701 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers cannot be ruled out across far northeastern counties late this afternoon into the evening - Cooler and less humid weather expected through Tuesday. - The next best chance for rain will be Wednesday evening through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)... Issued at 304 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Today through Tuesday night... Mostly quiet weather conditions are expected early in the period with surface high pressure across the region. Aloft, upper troughing to start the period will help keep temperatures cooler. Upper troughing begins to shift east with ridging building in early in the work week, but seasonably cool temperatures will persist as surface flow remains northwesterly. A few showers cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon or evening across northeast portions of central Indiana due to a weak boundary pushing through. Confidence in showers developing is low as forcing and moisture will be marginal at best. However, a few CAMs suggest the potential for isolated convection to develop so low POPs were included for far northeastern counties. Light winds and mostly clear skies are expected to promote patchy fog development both early this morning and again late tonight into early Monday morning. Any fog that develops should quickly mix out after daybreak. Surface high pressure begins to shift east Tuesday, but surface riding will continue to promote quiet weather. Wednesday through Saturday... Long range guidance depicts multiple upper level waves traversing the region towards mid-late week returning precipitation chance to the forecast. The first wave approaches late Wednesday bringing a frontal boundary into the region. Modest forcing and sufficient moisture advection ahead of the disturbance supports the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low chances for convection linger into Thursday, but this will be heavily dependent on the location of the aforementioned boundary. At this time, guidance suggest lingering low-level moisture will be in place across central Indiana supporting the potential for diurnal convection. If the front moves through earlier in the day, expect mostly dry conditions. Long range guidance generally suggest surface high pressure builds back in late week providing quiet weather. Look for temperatures to remain slightly below normal. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 701 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Impacts: - Fog possible at the outlying terminals after 07-08Z tonight Discussion: Mainly VFR conditions to continue across central Indiana through the period as surface high pressure remains in control. Expect light northwest flow through 14Z before increasing to around 07-12 kt later in the day. Winds become light and variable tonight. Fog/BR is possible at the outlying sites after 07-08Z tonight. Some scattered diurnal cu is expected to develop today. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ AVIATION...Melo DISCUSSION...Melo  406 FXUS63 KMQT 231103 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 703 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong winds and high waves over eastern Lake Superior are creating dangerous rip currents and swimming conditions along the beaches of Marquette County eastward today; a Beach Hazard Statement is in effect. - Spotty light lake effect rain showers/sprinkles are possible over the east half today. - Seasonable temperatures are expected through the week with the exception of slightly below normal temperatures today and tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 With cold air advection from Canada bringing delta-Ts into the mid- teens Celsius today, expect lake effect cloud cover and rain showers to develop over the eastern half of the U.P. as stout high pressure moves in from the west with time. While the cooler air moving in from Canada today will keep highs a little bit lower than yesterday, temperatures should still get up into at least the 60s across the area with the south central potentially getting up to around 70F. The cold air advection will work to create strong winds and high, short-period waves over southeastern Lake Superior today. Thus, expect dangerous rip currents and waves along the nearshores from Marquette County eastward today; stay safe and out of the water today as the swimming conditions are potentially life-threatening! While the high pressure moving in will bring an end to the lake effect rain showers/sprinkles over the east half by this evening, with antecedent cooler air still overhead and clear skies tonight, expect low tonight to potentially drop into the 40s to potentially 30s over the interior areas; for some of the colder spots, cannot rule out some patches of frost as we see one of our first tastes of Fall this year. Expect a return to generally near normal late-Summer temperatures for the rest of this week as a more active period of high pressure ridging followed by a subsequent shortwave low is in store for the rest of the week. Thus, near normal temperatures and dry conditions on Monday give way to slightly above normal temperatures by Tuesday as well as rain showers and thunderstorms, before more normal temperatures are seen over the U.P. once again by the end of the week; another weaker shortwave low may bring additional showers and potentially a thunderstorm over the area behind the main low for the mid-week before drier conditions are seen once again by the end of the week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 703 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Generally VFR conditions are expected at IWD and CMX today while SAW could stay within MVFR cigs until the lake effect clouds/showers scatter out late. Expect gusty NW to N winds today before lightening up a bit over CMX and SAW tonight; IWD could go calm late tonight, allowing for FG to form at the terminal as high pressure builds into the region. && .MARINE... Issued at 235 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Lake Superior - N to NW winds of 20 to 30 knots continue over the lake today, especially over the east half where a few gale force gusts up to 35 knots could be seen from time to time along the shoreline from Marquette to Grand Marais, Michigan (NBM shows up to 60% chance). As high pressure builds in from the west today into tonight, expect the winds to weaken slightly as they back more towards the NW (20 to 30 knots over the east half). The winds continue to slowly weaken on Monday before dropping to 20 knots or less again by Monday evening. With a Clipper low approaching for the mid-week, showers and storms return to Lake Superior by Tuesday afternoon, with winds increasing from the S at 20 to 25 knots over at least the eastern half of the lake byTuesday night. While the winds weaken to around 20 knots or less by Wednesday, shower and storm chances continue through the mid-week as a weaker shortwave rolls into the region via rotating around the Clipper. As cold air advection behind the Clipper and high pressure ridging return to the area towards the end of the week, expect the winds to pick up from the NW again by Thursday; as of right now, the NBM has around a 50% chance for low-end gales between Stannard Rock and the Marquette County shoreline during the daytime on Thursday. With high pressure ridging returning by Friday, expect light winds of 20 knots or less to return to the lake by then. Northern Green Bay and Northwestern Lake MI - N to NW winds of 20 to 30 knots continue today via cold air advection moving overhead as high pressure trudges in from the west. While it does take awhile, expect the winds to die down to around 15 knots or less again late on Monday as the high's center passes through the area. However, don't expect the calmer waters to last all that long as a Clipper low approaches the area for the mid-week. Thus, we can expect S winds to gust up to 20 to 25 knots again Tuesday evening and Wednesday as the low approaches. In addition, rain showers and thunderstorms return to the area late Tuesday night and remain until Wednesday evening. While some calmer seas could be seen Wednesday evening, with the cold air advection behind the Clipper moving in on Thursday, expect the winds to pick back up to 15 to 20 knots from the NW again as some showers and storms could be seen once more during the daylight hours. High pressure moving in from the west late this week brings winds back down to 15 knots or less Thursday night into the end of the workweek. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ005-006. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TAP AVIATION...TAP MARINE...TAP  419 FXUS63 KTOP 231103 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 603 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Scattered showers are possible today, with higher chances for storms occurring tonight. -Without a significant change in the pattern, there will continue to be occasional chances for storms through the upcoming workweek. -Cooler today, then temperatures warm back to near average. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Early this morning, a small complex of storms was moving into western KS. Those storms are associated with a shortwave on the northern periphery of the mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern CONUS. Storms will struggle to maintain strength and will likely evolve into widely scattered rain showers as the complex moves into central and eastern KS due to minimal amounts of instability and weak shear. Thus, POPs are mainly in the 20 to 30 percent range throughout the day. Temperatures will also struggle to warm due to cloud cover, which will keep highs on the cool side of average, mainly in the low 80s today. Tonight will bring a higher probability (40-60%) for thunderstorms in response to isentropic ascent on the edge of an increasing LLJ. While there will be more instability and effective shear to work with, severe weather is not likely overnight. Lingering showers/storms in far eastern KS should dissipate by late morning tomorrow, and afternoon sunshine should allow temps to warm back to near average in the mid to upper 80s along and south of I-70 (slightly cooler north). Another chance for rain arrives in central/north-central KS on Tuesday as another shortwave travels through the northwest flow aloft. POPs expand eastward across the area Tuesday night and early Wednesday along a surface boundary associated with a stronger system over the Great Lakes. Long range models agree on keeping conditions dry on Thursday, but with a similar pattern remaining in place, will have to monitor for the occasional shortwave bringing more rounds of rain late in the week. In the meantime, temperatures will remain near average with lows in the mid 60s and highs in the mid to upper 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 555 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Have added a brief TEMPO group for KTOP & KMHK for IFR visibility due to very shallow ground fog. Otherwise, have maintained the PROB30 at KMHK for the possibility of rain showers today. There is a slight chance for rain at the Topeka terminals too, however, confidence remains too low for inclusion. Will amend if confidence increases or rain begins to approach the area. Light winds and VFR is expected outside of rain. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Teefey AVIATION...Teefey  339 FXUS66 KHNX 231102 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 402 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .UPDATE... Updated Aviation Section. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Triple digit heat continues for San Joaquin Valley and Mojave Desert. 40 to 50 percent for Major Heat Risk in the Southern San Joaquin Valley early next week. 2. 10 to 20 percent probability for extreme heat in the Mojave Desert ending next week and starting September. && .DISCUSSION... High pressure over the Four Corners region has resulted in upper level flow over central California from the southwest, forcing temperatures into the upper 90s to near 100 across the lower elevations of the region. With minimal change expected to the synoptic pattern, these temperatures are likely to stick around through much of the upcoming week. Through Wednesday, there is an 80 to 90 percent probability for afternoon highs to exceed 100 degrees each day in the San Joaquin Valley. This level of heat will result in a Moderate Risk of heat-related illnesses to those sensitive to heat, such as older adults (65+), infants, athletes, outdoor workers, those without effective cooling, and those with chronic diseases; there is some risk to the general population. Meanwhile, in the Mojave Desert, there is at least a 60 to 70 percent probability for afternoon highs to exceed 105 degrees this Tuesday and Wednesday, leading to patchy areas of Major Heat Risk. A weak low pressure trough will push through the Pacific Northwest region before the weekend, slightly degrading the strength of the aforementioned high pressure. Upper level flow will shift to the west from the southwest, resulting in slightly cooler, but still above average, temperatures. However, the high will maintain most of its strength over the desert areas, with an additional 70 to 80 percent probability for highs to exceed 105 degrees. During the same period, there is a 50 to 60 percent probability for morning lows to exceed 75 degrees. The combination of these warmer highs and lows in the desert will lead to more widespread Major Heat Risk with smaller areas of Extreme Heat Risk developing. The latter of these has a 10 to 20 percent probability to occur. As has been the case for much of the latter half of the summer, the warmer temperatures will drive down the relative humidity across the region. Through most of this coming week, minRH values in the San Joaquin Valley will be between 15 and 25 percent and up to 30 percent in the Sierra Nevada; single digits will be present in the Mojave Desert. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevailing for the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public...McCoy aviation....EW weather.gov/hanford  459 FXUS63 KLSX 231104 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 604 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will remain in the 80s across most of the area this week with relatively low humidity. While there are intermittent low chances for rain, the weather should be dry for the majority of the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A ridge of high pressure extending south from Canada into the Mid Mississippi Valley will control our weather today. Light northwest flow at the surface will keep temperatures 3-5 degrees below normal in the low to mid 80s, as well as allow relatively dry air to continue to filter into the region. The ridge will drift east tonight, and winds will become light and variable, and then turn to the south-southwest along and east of the Mississippi. Forecast soundings suggest there will be intermittent mid and high ceilings moving into the area from the northwest during the evening. However, there should be sufficient time with clear to scattered clouds that radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop to near the dew point in the mid 50s to low 60s in most locations. Slightly warmer temperatures in the mid 60s are likely in central Missouri where the wind turns back to the south earlier and there will likely be more clouds. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The general long wave pattern remains in place through next week with a ridge over the Intermountain West and a trough extending south from Canada through the Great Lakes Region into the Southeast U.S. The trough attenuates somewhat early in the week allowing the ridge to build eastward a bit which will warm temperatures from the low 80s on Monday into the mid and upper 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. Deterministic guidance shows two weak short waves moving across the Mississippi Valley Monday and Tuesday. While these waves are weak and fast-moving, they do force some weak low level cyclogenesis over the Plains which turns 805mb flow to the southwest over Missouri. The southwest flow produces some modest moisture convergence but relatively dry southeast surface flow from the retreating high over the Ohio Valley will undercut this moisture convergence. Models spit out some light QPF which grazes central and some of eastern Missouri, but the chance that much measurable rain will reach the ground looks low due to the dry low levels. A more substantial short wave dives through the Midwest Wednesday which pushes a cold front through Missouri and Illinois Wednesday night. Guidance is inconclusive on precipitation chances as the front moves through low level moisture return looks limited ahead of it. Regardless, the short wave briefly re-amplifies the eastern long wave and front brings slightly cooler air into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Temperatures fall 2-5 degrees for the end of the week back into the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 600 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Localized fog will reduce the visibility to 1SM or less in river valleys through 13Z. Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Light northwest flow will become light and variable this evening, and then gradually turn to the southeast tonight into Monday morning. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Carney LONG TERM...Carney AVIATION...Carney  443 FXUS64 KSJT 231104 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 604 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Big Country, Heartland and Concho Valley areas this afternoon and again on Sunday afternoon. - There is a low (15%-20%) chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms, mainly across the Big Country, this afternoon and evening. - Hot and mainly dry weather will persist through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to our east, but are also winding down late tonight. Expect this trend of diminishing coverage and intensity to continue through the rest of the early morning hours. For today, we will again warm up into the 105 to 110 degree range across areas roughly north of a Mertzon to Junction line, with upper 90s to near 105 for the rest of the area. With that in mind, the Heat Advisory in these areas will continue through tomorrow evening. Although we will approach the 110+ degree mark that warrants in an Extreme Heat Warning north of I-20, we aren't expecting to quite make it there, so will just keep the Heat Advisory going. Lows will continue to be very muggy, only dropping into the mid 70s to lower 80s, and winds will be out of the south at 5 to 15 mph. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Expect hot and dry conditions across the area as a upper level ridge remains in control. Looks like will need Heat Advisories for much of next week across much of the area. Please follow heat safety precautions if you have to be outside during the afternoon hours. Highs will mainly range from the upper 90s to near 110, mainly across the Big Country, expecting to have the hottest temperatures. Also, mostly sunny skies will make it feel even hotter. There is a very low chance for a few showers and thunderstorms by the middle of next week. However, most of the area will remain dry through the long term. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 603 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions with just some SCT mid and upper level clouds. South to southeast winds in the 5 to 10 knot range for the most part. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 106 81 107 80 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 104 77 104 75 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 103 75 103 72 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 105 77 105 75 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 106 80 107 79 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 99 73 99 72 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 103 76 104 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Jones- Mason-McCulloch-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Shackelford-Sterling- Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...20  566 FXUS64 KFWD 231106 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 606 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures near or over 100 degrees will continue through next week, with the hottest days of the summer likely today through Tuesday. - An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for all of North and Central Texas today. Additional extensions of heat headlines are expected through the middle of the week. - Hot temperatures and low humidity will contribute to increased wildfire starts this week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Dangerously hot weather conditions will develop this afternoon across the region with temperatures ranging between 104 to 109 degrees. Given the expansive reach of the ongoing heatwave, the Excessive Heat Warning has been expanded and now includes all of our North and Central Texas counties. Although we expect dangerously hot temperatures later today, we continue to see the development of scattered showers across North and Central Texas this early Sunday morning. This activity is currently being driven by a southward moving shortwave, moving over pooled moisture and residual boundaries from yesterday's activity to the north. The ongoing activity will continue to progress southward through the predawn hours and generate precipitation to a lucky few! There is the potential for a rogue lightning strike or two, however, the main sensible impact will be gusty outflow winds. As mentioned above, this afternoon will be a hot one as our mid- level high pressure system inches closer to our region. Increased subsidence will likely prevent the development of precipitation this afternoon, however, a few high clouds may still stream in from the north. Nonetheless, sufficient surface warming is expected areawide to increase the risk for heat-related illnesses. Remember to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if you are outdoors, especially during peak heating hours. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Our dangerously hot weather will persist through the first half of the week as the ridge axis to our west slowly progresses eastward and increases its influence over our sensible weather. Highs on Monday will likely be 2-4 degrees warmer compared to today (Sunday). With temperatures this hot, an extension of the current heat headlines is likely. There is some question regarding the extent of the 105+ temperatures across Central Texas tomorrow, therefore, this will continue to be analyzed through today and a decision on the particular heat product will be made early this afternoon. A slow downward trend in the heat will commence on Tuesday as the ridge once again begins its westward retreat. By Wednesday, the ridge will have shifted west enough to allow for shortwaves to once again move across North and Central Texas. With each passing shortwave, expect increased cloud cover, thus, reducing the amount of insolation. Additionally, low rain chances will once again be introduced to the forecast. At this time, any rain that does occur will be scattered at best. Most locations will likely remain dry continuing to worsen the ongoing drought conditions. Heading into the weekend, our weather pattern will remain fairly stagnant with the ridge axis remaining to our west. Minute east- west changes to the area of high pressure may allow for a few shortwaves to sneak into our region, however, nothing looks promising enough to warrant a mention of precipitation. Expect hot and mostly dry conditions to persist through the rest of this forecast period. Given the continued hot and mostly dry weather conditions in place, all of North and Central Texas will continue to experience weather conditions favorable for initial attack type fires. Low relative humidity and well-above normal temperatures will continue to further dry vegetation. The limiting factor through the rest of the week will be the generally light winds expected, reducing the probability of rapid fire spread. Continue to exercise caution if preforming activities that may generate sparks! && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 606 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Isolated showers from early this morning have propagated into Central TX, and one or two cells may approach Waco over the next few hours. Regardless, we expect ceilings and visibility to remain VFR. Shower activity has cleared the Metroplex, where winds are currently very light (<5KT) and generally easterly. Wind direction should veer toward more typical 5-10KT southerly flow near or just after sunrise as the weak front washes out. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 105 84 108 83 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 104 81 104 78 / 10 0 0 0 Paris 102 78 104 79 / 0 0 10 10 Denton 106 82 107 81 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 105 81 106 81 / 0 0 0 10 Dallas 107 84 108 83 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 105 80 106 79 / 10 0 0 10 Corsicana 105 81 105 78 / 10 0 0 0 Temple 105 79 104 76 / 10 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 108 78 110 78 / 10 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Hernandez  665 FXUS63 KPAH 231108 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 608 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The week will begin on a dry note, but small chances of heat of the day showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday through Tuesday in southeast Missouri. - The next chance of showers and thunderstorms across the entire region is forecast Wednesday afternoon and evening. - High temperatures will warm from the lower 80s early this week to the upper 80s by late week, along with increasing humidity levels. && .UPDATE... Issued at 606 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The region will remain sandwiched between the upper level ridging to the SW across the southwest CONUS and the trough to the NE across the northeast CONUS this week. At the surface, high pressure will build into the area today through early Monday. As a result, most of the forecast area is expected to remain dry today into the middle of the work week, with the exception of SEMO. Here, several small shortwaves are forecast to move through the area almost daily, bringing 15-30% chances of showers, typically in the late afternoon/evening and into the overnight hours. Rain chances for the entire region will increasing beginning Wednesday, when another trough is expected to move through, with widespread low PoPs across the region. Daily afternoon temperatures are expected start in the low 80s today through the middle of the work week. However, temperatures will climb into the upper 80s for the second half of the week. Additionally, dewpoints will become more humid, in the upper 60s and low 70s as well. This will be in response to a warm front lifting northward through the region. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 606 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Lingering shallow fog invof CGI, PAH, and MVN will diminish by 13z as boundary layer mixing increases. High pressure will bring steady NW around 4-8 kts through the afternoon, along with FEW- SCT diurnal CU with bases around 4-5kft. Tonight, winds will relax to light and variable under passing high cirrus. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...AZ/DWS DISCUSSION...AZ AVIATION...AZ/DWS  115 FXUS63 KAPX 231112 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 712 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy, showery, and cool conditions today into Monday...a rumble of thunder not impossible - High swim risks today and possibly into Monday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 337 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: Ridge axis stretching from the SW US bookended by sharp troughs....one over the PacNW, and another stretching from Hudson Bay to a lobe of PV over central Ontario, down through the Great Lakes and down into the Carolinas...with Bermuda high well off the coast. 100kt upper jet snaking through the flow, particularly on either side of the eastern US trough axis. Deep moisture that aided in yesterday's localized 2-4in rainfall now exiting stage right into New England and eastern Canada, along/ahead of an occluded surface low on the north edge of Georgian Bay as of 0z; surface cold front with this drapes to the Southern Plains and back up the lee side of the Rockies, where mid/upper level return flow from the SW US aids in convective activity. PV max over Ontario has some associated weak stability aloft with seasonably cool 850mb temps around 4C beneath it...with strengthening (20-30kt) N/NNW low-level flow poised to advect this air into the Upper Great Lakes; the harbinger of this is a surface cold front draped from the Canadian border toward Whitefish Point and up to James Bay as of 0z. Warm advection already taking shape across the central Canadian Prairies with 1022mb surface high focused over Manitoba/MN. PV max over central Ontario to track SSE across the area today...lending to a strengthening of low pressure near and northeast of Georgian Bay. Thus, expect strong NW/NNW flow over the area today, slowly waning with time into Monday, though we will still remain under cyclonic low-level flow until high pressure finally builds into the Upper Great Lakes by Monday night/Tuesday. Next system, that current PacNW system, will track across southern Canada and lend its warm advective influence to the Upper MS Valley as early as Tuesday...and track into our area going into Wednesday, bringing us the next shot at unsettled weather. Signals point toward troughing attempting to settle into the eastern US again for the latter half of the work week...while troughing over the West Coast tries to squash the western ridge altogether...potentially resulting in zonal flow across the northern CONUS...and perhaps a blocking ridge setting up over northern Canada? FORECAST DETAILS... Winds/beach hazards today/tonight... Strongest portion of the pressure gradient may remain to our north/northeast, which would limit the winds here...but expect sustained winds 10-20mph will remain likely, especially for the EUP and NE Lower, right on into Monday morning, tapering through the day as the low pulls away. Prevailing direction should be NW to NNW through the period, but should fluctuate back and forth in this general portion of the wind rose depending on the passage of perturbations/PV maxima through the day (current timing on the main PV max is for it to drop through late morning into the afternoon). Winds aloft still don't look overly impressive (generally 20-30kts from 925 to 850mb) for much of the day, but may strengthen above 30kts for a period this evening/tonight before diminishing with time Monday. Suspect gusts will largely reflect this idea, and still don't have a lot of confidence in achieving persistent gales...but best shot at this would likely be over Whitefish Bay, northern Lake Huron, and perhaps also near the tip of Grand Traverse Bay where there could be some channeling of winds. Nonetheless...gusty winds today will result in dangerous waves and currents, and high swim risks across most beaches. Showers/storms today into Monday...Potent pv max diving in, combined with some signals for weaker stability aloft, could indicate some potential for more vigorous convection and perhaps small hail along with lightning. With overlake instability as a player, wouldn't be impossible to see convection end up deeper/more vigorous, though inversion heights should be around 700mb/9-10kft, which could put a cap on things...but do wonder if the 18-22C lake surface temps will try to overcome that. With a little better deep layer shear in the region today...suppose there is a non-zero chance everything could come together just perfectly to produce some spicier storms...but not a sure bet by any means. If anything were to get a little spicy, would expect it would be similar to yesterday's scattered pop-up convection with primarily gusty winds as the concern. Some deeper moisture wraps around into the region toward evening from the northeast...likely some kind of wraparound/trowal-ish feature related to the departing surface low. Thus, suspect this would be a wad of somewhat more warm-advective stratiform rain and/or drizzle. Do wonder if this could result in a swath of higher QPF, particularly with signals for pwats to jump back above 1in... but also think the bulk of, if not most of this, will remain offshore...given some question as to how far back to the east the moisture will wrap. (Not to mention subsidence should be increasing with time tonight into Monday.) Guidance soundings also suggest the idea of stratiform rain/drizzle, noting moist but mostly stable thermal profiles, which could also limit QPF. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 654 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Low clouds this morning leading to MVFR at most terminals. Clouds will linger for the next couple hours, but will improve to mostly VFR by 15z. Northwest winds will quickly strengthen to 15kts with frequent gusts up to 25kts. Chances for VCSH near some terminals. MVFR ceilings move in over KAPN/KCIU/KPLN after 00z with chances for -RA. Winds gradually diminish through the end of the period. Very low chances for TS. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ016-018- 020-021-024-025-031-098-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for LHZ346. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Monday for LHZ347-348. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342- 344. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for LMZ345-346. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322. && $$ DISCUSSION...FEF AVIATION...ELD  065 FXUS63 KDVN 231111 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 611 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather and pleasant temperatures and humidity continue into Monday. - Mainly dry this week with 20 to 40 percent chances of showers and storms on Wednesday and again next Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 110 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Deep northwesterly flow aloft continues across the Upper Midwest through Monday. High pressure is forecast to drift across the area with lighter winds today and Monday. Temperatures today will be cooler ranging from 75 to 80 degrees. Dewpoints today will be noticeably lower and be in the mid to upper 50s so it will feel pleasant across the area today. Temperatures Sunday night will drop into the mid to upper 50s. On Monday, model consensus as surface high pressure to the east o the area with light southerly return flow setting up across the area. Aloft, models show a slight eastward shift in high pressure to our southwest which pushes the northwest flow east of the area. Quiet weather is expected through the day but some models show a subtle shortwave within the flow that could overspread the area. The current forecast and NBM consensus for Monday is dry with sunny skies and precipitation remaining to the west across central and western Iowa. Depending on the exact placement of this shortwave, decaying showers may move into the far western edge of our CWA west of a Vinton to Fairfield to Keosauqua line with dry air in place across the area. High temperatures on Monday are expected to be in the upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 110 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to continue through the upcoming week. A storm system is forecast to pass to our north and east Tuesday night through Wednesday night with 25 to 40 percent chances of showers and storms. Models show a slight increase in moisture ahead of this storm system. Currently the higher chances of precipitation are across northwest Illinois. Rainfall amounts will be light with generally less than a tenth of an inch expected. High temperatures on Wednesday will be slightly warmer with high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. After Wednesday night, models show the northwest flow as another shortwaves tops the western US ridge flattening the flow to a zonal. This will overspread the area late Friday into Saturday bringing anther low chance of precipitation to the area. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 610 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR high pressure will continue to remain over the region today through Monday morning, with skies mostly clear and light northwest winds becoming light and variable overnight. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cousins LONG TERM...Cousins AVIATION...Ervin  133 FXUS63 KMPX 231112 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 612 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight chance of thunderstorms across southwest Minnesota Monday morning - Scattered showers & thunderstorms likely Tuesday, a few strong storms possible during the afternoon/evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 143 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A cool late-sumer night is developing under clear high pressure, with highs falling into the upper 40s & low 50s across the area. Patchy fog is possible in spots through sunrise, mainly along the Minnesota River Valley & western Wisconsin. Similar temperatures to saturday this afternoon with highs again in the upper 70s, although winds will be much lighter with the high pressure overhead. The surface high begins shifting east Monday, with southerly flow returning ahead of the next weak cold front. This front looks to move through sometime late Monday into Tuesday, bringing our next chance for scattered showers & thunderstorms. Moisture return ahead of the front looks fairly limited though, and considerable spread remains within the ensemble guidance regarding precipitation coverage, so rain chances remain fairly low at this point. The first round of thunderstorms looks possible late Sunday night into Monday morning, but guidance generally keep the shortwave & bulk of the precipitation off to the west over the Dakotas. Another cold front moves through the region on Tuesday, but the general model timing brings the front through during the morning hours, which would mean that any widespread convection & appreciable rainfall could be limited. There are a few high-resolution models that are slower with the front, bringing it through during the late afternoon & evening. Should this slower timing occur, we could see a few strong or severe thunderstorms along the front with CAPE values reaching 1000-1500 J/kg during the afternoon along with 30-40 kts of deep shear. Showers & thunderstorms during the morning could always lead to reduced instability & a lower chance of afternoon storms as well. Otherwise, temperatures look to remain steady through next week with highs generally around 80 & lows in the 50s to low 60s. Ensemble guidance suggests we could get into a more active pattern over the weekend as a train of shortwaves passes over the Upper Midwest. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 612 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Patchy ground fog and temporary visibility reductions are possible in the the first hour or two of the period. AXN, STC, & RNH already have or are most likely to observe visibility reductions, but we'll monitor observational trends at the other terminals and AMD as necessary. Otherwise, a quiet 12z period will feature lighter winds that yesterday along with some diurnal VFR Cu. Winds turn easterly tonight. High clouds are forecast overspread the forecast area from west to east through Monday morning. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind SE-SW 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR, chc -SHRA early. Wind SW 10-20 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...Strus  135 FXUS65 KFGZ 231112 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 412 AM MST Sun Aug 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Moderate monsoon activity will continue through Monday, mainly along the higher terrain during the afternoon and evening hours. Then, as high pressure builds over Arizona, hot and mainly dry conditions are expected to develop as the flow of moisture northward into the region diminishes. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft was centered over New Mexico Sunday morning. It is expected that the high center will slowly drift southward through about Tuesday then westward becoming centered over southeast Arizona by Friday/Saturday. Look for daily chances for showers/thunderstorms across northern Arizona through Tuesday, with diminished chances later in the week as a drier and more stable air mass develops over northern Arizona. For Today...Monsoon moisture will remain in place. As a result, we're looking at another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Much like on Saturday, look for shower and thunderstorm development over the mountains around midday with activity then tending to move north and east with the general flow aloft. Storms during the day will likely be most numerous from the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains northward. Another aspect to keep an eye on is the possibility of a convective blowup over southern Arizona this afternoon and evening. The potential is for a strong outflow boundary to be sent northward interacting with moisture and instability across central to northern Arizona. The result would be a mid to late evening (and even overnight) uptick in showers and storms across portions of northern Arizona (especially along and west of the I-17/Highway 89A corridor). Otherwise, light winds and generally hot conditions. For Monday and Tuesday...Monsoon moisture remains in place with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. The flow aloft will remain southerly with the bulk of activity expected from the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains northward. Otherwise, with the high remaining over the southwest United States, light winds will continue along with above normal temperatures, turning especially hot by Tuesday as high pressure begins to strengthen over Arizona. Looking from Wednesday onward...Models appear to be trending toward high pressure aloft becoming centered over southeast Arizona. This solution would bring in a more southwest to west flow aloft which would deliver a drier air mass as well as a capping layer under the influence of weak subsidence. In addition, daytime temperatures will be on the increase, likely rising to the upper 80 to lower 90s in the mountains to 105 to 110 degrees at elevations below 4000 feet. A reminder that we remain in the grips of summer. && .AVIATION...Sunday 23/12Z through Monday 24/12Z...Mainly VFR conditions. Another round of scattered SHRA/TSRA developing after 18Z and continuing through at least 03Z. Brief MVFR conditions and gusty/erratic wind possible in heavier SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise, look for variable winds at 5-15 kts. OUTLOOK...Monday 24/12Z through Wednesday 26/12Z...Expect mainly VFR conditions. Scattered afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA Monday, with coverage decreasing to isolated by Tuesday. Outside of gusty/erratic outflow driven winds, look for daytime winds mainly southwest to west 5-15 kts. Light and variable winds at night. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Expect daily chances for showers/thunderstorms, with the greatest coverage across the higher terrain. Activity will ramp up around midday then continue through the evening hours both days. Outside of gusty and erratic storm driven winds, look for variable winds generally 10 mph or less. Tuesday through Thursday...Drier conditions will gradually return, with activity becoming limited to the White Mountains by Wednesday and Thursday. Daytime highs are forecast to become quite hot, reaching 10-15 degrees above normal. Look for southwest winds 5-15 mph each afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...McCollum FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  180 FXUS66 KPDT 231113 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 413 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Upper level high pressure builds back over the region through the midweek with warming temperatures and mostly dry conditions - Breezy winds return Wednesday, with moderate confidence (55-60%) in elevated fire weather conditions developing Wednesday - Near seasonable temperatures and diurnally breezy Cascade Gap winds return Thursday into the weekend && .DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery tonight shows an upper level low moving across western WA, while nighttime satellite and radar imagery shows little activity across the forecast area with only scattered showers/thunderstorms across northeast WA. Winds in the lower elevations have mostly weakened, with breezy conditions still reported through the Cascade gaps, portions of the OR Columbia Basin, and the Blue Mountain foothills. Today through Tuesday: The upper low over western WA will continue to push east through the remainder of today, weakening and becoming an open wave trough during it's transit. On the Backside of the trough, a slight chance (15-25%) of light rain showers will be possible along the WA Cascade crest this morning, but will diminish in the afternoon as the trough pushes into Canada. Breezy winds through the Cascade gaps and portions of the Columbia Basin will remain through the evening hours, as the cross Cascade surface pressure gradient will be slower to weaken. Late Sunday through Tuesday, an upper level ridge will build over the PacNW and Northern Rockies, producing another warming trend that will persist into Wednesday. From the most recent NBM run, 90th percentile max temperatures remain around the mid 90s, with locally upper 90s in the WA Columbia Basin. Otherwise, while conditions are expected to remain mostly dry across the forecast area, there are less than 10% chances of isolated showers/thunderstorms developing across the southern Blues Monday afternoon, and the northern Blues Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday through Saturday: While warming impacts from the upper level ridge is expected to persist into Wednesday, there is good agreement amongst ensemble guidance that upper level troughing in the northeast Pacific will drop closer to the PacNW Wednesday, then push inland during the day Thursday (confidence 55-65%). The approach of the upper trough and an attendant surface low will tighten surface pressure gradients along the Cascade crest, resulting in a return to breezy westerly winds developing Wednesday. Fire weather conditions will become elevated to marginally critical across portions of the Columbia Basin/Gorge and adjacent valleys in the afternoon, as relative humidities will be near critical values (confidence 55-60%). Thursday, ensemble cluster analysis shows the upper trough swinging into southern BC, pushing the upper ridge further east of the region. Near seasonable temperatures will result with a slight increase in relative humidity across the forecast area (confidence 45-55%), while breezy winds persist through the Cascade gaps. Confidence is moderate (45-60%) that fire weather conditions will be elevated, but remain above critical thresholds. Friday into Saturday, ensemble cluster solutions favor upper level troughing continuing to impact the PacNW, though ensemble members are in disagreement on position and strength of the trough. Confidence in forecast details is low- moderate (35-50%) during this period. Lawhorn/82 && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Winds will increase to 12-17kts with gusts to around 25kts at sites PDT/ALW late tomorrow morning into the early evening. Winds at site DLS will remain 12-17kts with gusts to 25kts through 2Z, becoming light through the remainder of the period. All other sites are expected to see light winds through the period. Lawhorn/82 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 82 48 89 56 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 84 55 92 63 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 86 52 92 56 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 86 56 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 85 52 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 77 50 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 83 45 90 49 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 85 48 93 55 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 87 51 95 56 / 0 0 0 10 DLS 83 58 92 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for WAZ026-522-523. OR...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for ORZ041-044-049-050- 502-503-505>507-509>511. && $$ DISCUSSION...82 AVIATION...82  237 FXUS62 KMLB 231115 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 715 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Scattered showers and storms are forecast across east central Florida today, highest near and north of the I-4 corridor. Storm hazards include frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 55 mph, and quick rainfall accumulations of 1-3". - Below normal rain and storm chances start off the work week as high pressure lifts northward towards the Florida peninsula, with a return of near normal rain and storm chances from Wednesday onward as moisture increases. - Near normal temperatures will persist through this week, but humidity will still produce peak heat indices of 100F and greater. Adequate hydration and breaks in the shade or A/C will be important for those spending extended periods of time outdoors! && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Today-Tonight...A deep mid-level trough is forecast to remain situated across the eastern US, with a shortwave rounding the trough and moving across the Florida peninsula today. At the surface, east central Florida remains sandwiched between the Atlantic ridge axis to the south and a quasi-stationary boundary draped across the southeastern US to the north. A plume of moisture will work across central Florida today, with the shortwave aloft assisting with shower and storm development along with the typical diurnal pattern. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will start late this morning near and north of the I-4 corridor, with coverage expanding southward through the afternoon hours. Activity will then shift eastward towards the coast, where additional interactions with the east coast sea breeze may support further development of activity. The highest rain and storm chances (50-60%) are focused near and north of the I-4 corridor where moisture is anticipated to be greatest today. While some hi- res guidance continues to favor this evolution of activity, it is important to note that drier air aloft could act as a limiting factor for shower and storm development. Decided to lean slightly more towards an active pattern given the mid-level support and plume of moisture present, hence the slight discrepancy in the forecast when compared to the NBM. The environment continues to look favorable for storm development, with diurnal heating increasing instability, dry air aloft supporting downbursts, and the plume of moisture supporting heavy rainfall. Hazards today will include frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts of 45-55 mph, and quick rainfall accumulations of 1-3". Westerly steering flow will keep activity moving offshore, with a gradual decline in coverage into the evening and overnight hours. Activity may even diminish slightly quicker than forecast given the earlier potential start time, and adjustments to the forecast will be made as needed depending on how things evolve today. Additional shower and storm development across the local Atlantic waters cannot be ruled out overnight, especially across the Gulf Stream waters. Outside of showers and storms, anticipate higher cloud coverage which will help keep temperatures closer to normal values today. Highs reach the low 90s, combining with humidity to produce peak heat indices of 102F to 107F. The greatest peak heat indices are anticipated across the Treasure Coast, where cloud coverage may not be quite as high. Residents and visitors are strongly encouraged to practice heat safety to avoid developing heat illness. Overnight, temperatures fall into the mid 70s. Monday-Tuesday...The deep troughing across the eastern US begins to lift northeastward and weaken, resulting in the weakening of the surface boundary draped across the southeast US. The surface Atlantic high is forecast to lift northward in response, with the ridge axis draping across the Florida peninsula. Locally, this will result in light southerly flow both Monday and Tuesday, allowing for both easier development and intrusion inland of the east coast sea breeze. Drier air is forecast to filter across the area on Monday, with the southerly flow slowly advecting moisture back towards east central Florida into Tuesday. This drier air will result in below- normal rain chances, ranging between 20-30% on Monday and 20-40% on Tuesday. Any activity that does manage to develop will be favored in the afternoon hours, driven primarily by the sea breezes and any subsequent interactions. Storm hazards will include frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts 45-55 mph, and heavy downpours. Lighter steering flow aloft both Monday and Tuesday may lead to slow and erratic storm motions, which will also increase the potential for minor, localized flooding in some spots if showers and storms do manage to develop. Overall, weak southwesterly flow aloft will support movement towards the east coast, with activity pushing offshore through the late evening and overnight hours. Continued development across the local Atlantic waters will be possible each night, with mostly dry conditions across the peninsula. Temperatures are forecast to remain near to slightly above normal each afternoon, with highs near and north of the I-4 corridor reaching the mid 90s, with highs in the low 90s elsewhere. At this time, peak heat indices are forecast to range between 102F to 107F, remaining just below Heat Advisory criteria. Those spending extended periods of time outdoors will need to remain adequately hydrated and take breaks in the shade or A/C to prevent the development of heat-related illness. Overnight, temperatures are anticipated to remain near normal in the mid 70s. Wednesday-Saturday...Broad mid-level ridging across the Atlantic will extend towards the Florida peninsula from the middle of this week into the weekend, with the Atlantic high at the surface generally remaining in place. The surface ridge axis is forecast to stay draped across the Florida peninsula, with light southerly winds prevailing through Friday, becoming more southeasterly next weekend as the ridge axis lifts slightly northward. Daily development of the east coast sea breeze is anticipated, and when combined with the moist air mass in place, will support a diurnal pattern of shower and storm development each day. Rain and storm chances remain near normal values (40-70%), with lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours possible. General model trends favor activity diminishing into the late evening and overnight hours across the peninsula each day. Temperatures will remain near normal in the low 90s during the afternoon hours, falling into the mid 70s during the overnight hours. Peak heat indices are anticipated to remain below advisory criteria but will still exceed 100F, so heat safety will continue to be important through the remainder of the week. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast to persist across the local waters through this week. The Atlantic high lifts northward towards the waters starting Monday, causing the southwesterly winds today to become more southerly Monday onward. Light wind speeds of 5 to 10 knots during the overnight and morning hours increase to 10 to 15 knots and shift to out of the southeast during the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops each day. Seas remain generally between 1 to 3 feet, with the highest seas focused across the offshore waters. Isolated to scattered shower and storm development will be possible, with activity generally moving offshore from the peninsula each afternoon into the evening hours. Continued development overnight across the Gulf Stream waters will be possible. Storm hazards will include frequent cloud-to-water lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 30 knots, heavy downpours, and locally higher seas. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 715 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Only tweaks to this TAF package was to move timing of initial shower and storm development an hour or two earlier, now focusing on 18-21Z for MCO with vicinity activity as early as 16Z. With activity already along the Nature Coast, will need to monitor trends to ensure this is early enough. This is esp the case at LEE where showers are already encroaching. Later in the day, focus of storms should shift to coastal terminals between 19Z and 00Z, ending last at Treasure Coast sites. Brief IFR/LIFR and wind gusts exceeding 35 kt will be the primary risks from storms this afternoon and evening. Sea breeze remains pinned at the coast, with terminals from MLB southward briefly turning SE in the afternoon up to 10 kt. VFR prevailing outside convection. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 91 75 92 75 / 60 10 10 10 MCO 93 76 95 76 / 50 20 20 10 MLB 94 76 93 77 / 40 20 20 10 VRB 93 75 92 75 / 30 20 20 10 LEE 90 75 94 75 / 60 10 20 10 SFB 92 75 94 76 / 60 10 20 10 ORL 92 76 94 77 / 50 20 20 10 FPR 94 75 92 75 / 30 20 30 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tollefsen AVIATION...Heil  229 FXUS63 KSGF 231115 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 615 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri tonight into Monday morning. Damaging wind to 60 mph is the primary severe weather hazard, with quarter size hail being a secondary hazard. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding are also possible. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Today: Mainly looking at a dry day given a very dry airmass in place and capping, but there is a <20% chance of showers/storms this afternoon that would struggle to see noteworthy precip reaching the ground through the dry air. Highs will range from the low to mid 80s NE to the low to mid 90s SW. Afternoon dew points in the mid 50s to low 60s will prevent heat concerns. Tonight into Monday morning: As has been advertised, 1-2 mid- level waves will move through the area under NW flow aloft. A mid-level jet will develop, promoting ascent over the CWA (favoring the SW CWA at this time). The mid-level jet will also result in the development of a SE low level jet that will nose into the area. An 850mb front will also be in place over the SW CWA, oriented from NW to SE. All these features will allow for widespread elevated thunderstorms to develop, as shown by most models and ensembles. 30-40 kts of effective shear and elevated instability will allow for strong updraft development and potential for hail to the size of quarters and the greater threat of 60 mph winds given 500-1,000 J/kg of DCAPE. Greatest potential/coverage is expected later tonight into Monday morning. Another threat for tonight into Monday morning is locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Generally slow storm movement and motions parallel to the 850mb front will favor training convection. HREF LPMM is showing 3-6 inches of rain, so we will advertise that as the localized rainfall amounts under the heaviest storms. 6 hourly flash flood guidance is around that same 3-6 inch value, so only expecting isolated flooding that does not warrant a flood watch at this time. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 With the area remaining in northwesterly flow throughout the week, we'll see periodic low-end chances (15-30%) for showers/storms. Daily highs should generally remain in the mid 80s to low 90s (northeast CWA) to the mid 90s (southwest CWA). && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 614 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Chances for showers and storms will increase tonight into Monday morning. Heavy rain, one inch hail, and 60 mph winds will be possible with the strongest storms. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Titus LONG TERM...Titus AVIATION...Titus  239 FXUS64 KLUB 231115 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 615 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 614 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Record breaking high temperatures possible Sunday and Monday. - Stronger breezes and low RH values will bring elevated fire danger on Sunday and Monday afternoon. - Storm chances return each day next week beginning Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Showers continue to dissipate across the region. These showers are expected to clear the area in the next couple of hours. Current radar imagery shows the outflow that pushed southwest across the forecast area through the evening has mostly exited the region. Once the showers clear and the outflow exits to forecast area, the rest of the overnight period will be quiet. Light winds will vary between south to southwest through the overnight hours. Lows remain unseasonably warm in the 70s across the region. Some localized areas may only reach as low as the lower 80s. Sunday will be another hot one. On the upper levels, ridging will remain over the forecast area as an upper trough dominates eastern CONUS. A secondary upper trough will swing onshore over the Pacific Northwest. Thickness increases below the the ridging will increase temperatures a couple degrees compared to today. Temperatures on the Caprock will reach up to 106 degrees. Temperatures off the Caprock will range from 106 up to 113 degrees. Tying the record daily high temperature will be possible at both KLBB and KCDS. The previous record for KLBB is 106 degrees set in 2024. The forecast high for Lubbock is 105 degrees. The previous record at KCDS is 111 degrees set in 2024 with a forecast high of 110 degrees. Due to the hot temperatures, a Heat Advisory is in effect Sunday from noon until 8 PM for the eastern South Plains and southern Rolling Plains. At the same time, an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect Sunday from noon until 8 PM for the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains. South to southwesterly winds are expected to pick up during the afternoon hours around 15 to 20 mph. With RH values reaching as low as 15 percent across the region and breezy winds, elevated fire conditions are expected across the entire forecast area. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect for the far southern Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and Rolling Plains from noon until 8 PM. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Sadly, the hot temperatures are here to stay for the first part of the long term forecast. Not much change to the upper pattern for Monday with the upper ridging remaining over the region. Thickness increases will increase high temperatures a couple more degrees for Monday. Areas on the Caprock can expect high temperatures around 105 degrees. Areas off the Caprock can expect highs up to 113 degrees. Highs on Monday could possibly break the daily record high at both KLBB and KCDS. The upper ridging will begin to retreat southwest on Tuesday bringing northwesterly flow aloft. A couple embedded shortwaves will bring thunderstorm chances each late afternoon and evening everyday through the weekend. With the retreat of the upper ridging, we will see a cool down in high temperatures, however not by much as highs through the week remain forecasted in the upper 90s to triple digits. By the weekend, models indicate the upper ridging will begin to flatten and expand east back over the region possibly warming up temperatures to Heat Advisory (105-109 degrees) level again. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR is expected through the TAF period. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the southern Texas Panhandle Sunday afternoon and evening but chances of affecting a TAF site are low at the moment. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-030>032-035>038-041>044. Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-031-032. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...01  285 FXUS64 KOHX 231115 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 615 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 612 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Slightly below normal temperatures with dry conditions expected through Monday. - Low to medium rain and storm chances will return Tuesday through the end of the week with seasonable temperatures in the low-90s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 612 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 We've got a few fantastic days ahead of us before rain chances return on Wednesday. Look for at or below normal highs and very manageable dew points through Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday Night) Issued at 1026 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A cold front has worked its way through Middle TN, and drier air is filtering in behind the front. Calm conditions are expected tonight with just patchy fog to keep an eye on. Confidence in fog is once again highest across the Plateau with any fog that does develop diminishing after sunrise. Upper-level troughing remains in place across the eastern CONUS, and in the wake of the front, temperatures on Sunday will cool a few degrees with high temperatures in the mid to upper-80s with dry conditions. Monday will be similar with highs still in the 80s and dry conditions prevailing. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1026 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 By Tuesday, the aforementioned trough shifts to the east and ridging sets up to the west. For Middle TN, this means northwest flow will persist through the end of the week, opening the door for a few shortwaves to move through the area. These shortwaves and an increase in moisture allows for daily low to medium rain chances to return to the forecast Tuesday through the end of the week. Temperatures will also warm a few degrees, but high temperatures in the low-90s will still be seasonably normal. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 SRB continues to deal with VLIFR fog, but this should clear by 14Z leaving everyone with VFR conditions at great flying weather for the rest of this TAF cycle. Winds will be light and northerly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 88 61 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 85 60 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 81 57 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 90 63 88 63 / 0 0 0 10 Cookeville 83 59 82 58 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 81 58 81 56 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 88 62 86 61 / 0 0 0 10 Murfreesboro 89 61 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 86 62 85 63 / 0 0 0 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Unger SHORT TERM...Clements LONG TERM....Clements AVIATION.....Unger  339 FXUS64 KTSA 231117 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 617 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 616 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Temperatures above normal with continued periods of high heat stress will continue through week. The possible exception being around active thunderstorm activity. - Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected through Monday, bringing areas of locally heavy rain and strong gusty winds, but most areas will see only minimal rainfall. - Areas of localized fire weather concerns will persist. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Sunday) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Much of the current night looks to be on the calmer side compared to the last couple of nights, with any overnight shower/storm development confined to parts of southeast Oklahoma in the vicinity of weak low level warm advection. Given the expected lack of much in the way of overnight storm development and corresponding residual cloud cover during the day, warmer conditions are likely on deck for a good chunk of the area compared to Saturday. That being said, some potential for an afternoon increase in cloud cover across parts of northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas, along with low shower/storm chances, will exist, creating a gradient in high temperatures across the area. The NBM high temperatures capture expectations well and will be left alone. Dew point trends are low confidence at this point, with a pocket of higher /mid 70s/ values expected to set up across a portion of east central into northeast Oklahoma and lower values on either side. An initial starting point of the short-term blended guidance through mid morning with a transition to the NBM guidance looks good for the moment. Highest confidence in the aforementioned temperatures and dew points to reach heat advisory criteria heat indices is roughly along and south of I-40, with moderate confidence as far north as Creek/Tulsa/southern Rogers counties. A Heat Advisory will be issued for this portion of eastern Oklahoma as well as the Arkansas River Valley areas in west central Arkansas. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Sunday night into early Monday continues to appear more active than the current night. Low shower and thunderstorm chances will hang on during the evening hours across parts of far northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas, but much greater coverage remains likely after midnight into the daylight hours Monday morning. A disturbance will move through the area on the eastern periphery of the upper level high centered to the west, with development beginning across parts of northeast Oklahoma before extending southeastward across Arkansas before dawn Monday. Some of the recent CAMs keep isolated to shower potential farther west in the area into Monday afternoon. Will not adjust the NBM POPs for this just yet but the trend will need to be monitored and potentially adjusted for. Assuming this westward and delayed trend does not occur, high temperatures across southeast Oklahoma will push 105 in some locations Monday afternoon. A front will move through the area during the day Tuesday, with its progression determining where the hotter temperatures setup and how cool northern parts of the area get. With current expectations, areas south of I-40 will again push 105, with highs across the northern half of the area /only/ in the mid and upper 90s. Heat headlines will be needed in parts of the area both Monday and Tuesday. From mid to late in the upcoming week, the basic weather pattern remains similar, with the upper level ridge centered to the west leading to periods of low shower and thunderstorm chances for some and a corresponding brief period of cooler temperatures. Temperatures on average should be above normal, save for the lucky locations and days with rain and residual cloud cover during the day. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late this evening and overnight, with potential impacts at the northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 96 76 99 75 / 10 50 10 0 FSM 99 76 98 74 / 10 30 30 10 MLC 102 79 105 77 / 0 10 10 0 BVO 94 70 97 69 / 20 50 10 0 FYV 95 71 92 71 / 20 50 40 0 BYV 91 69 88 70 / 20 60 40 0 MKO 97 76 100 73 / 10 40 10 0 MIO 92 70 93 71 / 20 60 30 0 F10 99 76 103 74 / 0 20 10 0 HHW 100 78 103 78 / 0 0 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-060-061-064>067-070-071-073>075-176-272. AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...05  378 FXUS63 KUNR 231118 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 518 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Upper ridge will dominate the weather through next week. - Thunderstorm areal coverage will increase tonight and hang about into next week, although in the hit or miss variety. - Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms may occur during the later afternoon/evening hours through Tuesday. - Temperatures will average 4-8F above normal. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1051 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Updated PoPs and QPF overnight to better capture latest model guidance and current radar trends. Models continue to show significant disagreement on placement of potential thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening, and have been changing from run to run as well. Have taken a broad-brush approach with low PoPs for now, favoring the Black Hills and most of our South Dakota plains (especially north of I-90 and then east of the Badlands). We'll continue to try to refine this over the next 36 hours. Parameters continue to support the potential for a couple severe thunderstorms with damaging wind and large hail risks. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday) Issued at 1236 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 18z surface analysis had weak high over the northern Plains into the middle MO river valley. Weak frontal boundary behind it from central MT into eastern CO. Patch of low stratus over western NE has been pushed northwestward on southeasterly winds along boundary leading to upper 50s Td/s across parts of northeastern WY. Water vapour matinee depicted shortwave ridge over the CWA, but shortwave trough hot on it's heels over eastern ID/western WY. Lift ahead of wave leading to some weak radar returns over northeastern WY, but nothing below 12kft per KGCC observation. Main concern this forecast is convection. Later this afternoon/evening, around 1500J/kg MLCAPE pools along frontal boundary with weak MLCIN. Shortwave overtops, which will assist convective initiation. Perhaps 20-30kt effective shear will be present, enough to support isolated strong/severe thunderstorms where SPC Day 1 Marginal in place. Storms will slowly move eastward across the CWA tonight, but in weaker fashion over western SD given less favorable environment. Temperatures will be near guidance. Sunday, aforementioned frontal boundary ends up over the western SD plains, influenced by tonight's convection/outflow. The further east it goes, the less the effect on the CWA. Right now, HREF suggests it'll settle over the eastern quarter of the CWA. 2KJ/kg CAPE pools along it with 30-40kts of 0-6km shear sufficient for strong/severe thunderstorms. Some CAM guidance suggests a supercell or two dropping south along the UNR/ABR border area late in the day. Temperatures will be near guidance. For Monday/Tuesday, disturbances rotating around the upper ridge will support additional chances for strong/severe convection given forecast shear/buoyancy profiles. The rest of next week looks less active as upper ridge/height rises more dominant. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Monday Morning) Issued At 517 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Showers and thunderstorms continue to push through southern SD with lightning and MVFR flight conditions from KIEN into south- central SD. Additional round of showers and thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon (after 22z) with hail, lightning, and gusty, erratic winds expected. Transient MVFR/IFR conditions in stronger cores. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ UPDATE...KSmith DISCUSSION...Helgeson AVIATION...SE  388 FXUS64 KAMA 231119 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 619 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Summer heat wave continues with impactful temperatures near or above 100 degrees through at least Monday. - Low to medium chance (20-40%) for scattered storms capable of gusty winds across the northwest and central combined Panhandle this afternoon into this evening. - Potential pattern change could provide slightly cooler temperatures and increased rain opportunities next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Latest in-situ observations show decaying complex of storms moving south through the south and rolling plains this evening, with a few more isolated showers in the eastern NM plains. GOES mid level water vapor imagery shows ridging across the Rocky Mountains with a better defined anti-cyclonic circulation center near east central NM. A trough of low pressure is impinging the much broader high pressure from the Pacific Northwest, and the combination of these features is keeping a large fetch of monsoon moisture across the intermountain west and adjacent plains. The latest 00z KAMA sounding continue to indicate well above normal heights for 500mb registering 597dm. However, this is a slight decrease from yesterday's 00z launch which was closer to 599dm, and we expect heights to continue to fall slowly over the next few days as the high center shifts more over the Desert Southwest. For tomorrow, the latest HREF and REFS members continue to hint at a modest shortwave perturbation rounding the high center and moving through the northern Panhandle during the evening. With ample H7-H5 moisture and an axis of instability peaking around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, storms firing off the higher terrain of CO/NM might have a decent environment to work with allowing them to persist well into the evening as they track east southeast. Given this, have increased PoPs slightly over NBM to nudge more towards the CAMs, as they have performed well lately and generally show more activity than the medium range guidance. PoPs will decrease with southern extent towards the central and southern TX Panhandle due to the position of the shortwave, however, some isolated storms may fire in the south during the afternoon as high temperatures are expected to exceed convective T. With DCAPE values around 1300-1600 (inverted-V profiles) and mostly low shear (<20kts effective shear), rogue microbursts will be a concern. If the storms congeal across the OK Panhandle a far northern TX Panhandle, strong to damaging winds gusts may become more scattered than isolated, but the lack of shear should result in outflow dominant cells. Some pockets of heavy downpours are also expected with the stronger storms given modest PWATs 1.0-1.3", but these storms may be moving fast enough that flooding is not expected. Otherwise, it will be hot again, with most of the central and east zones under a heat advisory and PDC will get an Extreme Heat Warning. Some spotty elevated fire weather is also expected given the slight uptick in southwest winds during the afternoon. For Monday, a similar setup unfolds with the addition of a weak boundary in the area. Temperatures should be slightly cooler, and it looks like a later arrival for any shortwaves. Thus, storms may be more spotty until late in the evening. Heat advisories look likely for parts of the south, but that could hinge on the strength and position of the boundary currently indicated in the short range models. Ward && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Latest medium and long term ensembles continue to suggest that high pressure willcontinue shifting west Tuesday into Wednesday. This will allow shortwave disturbances to cross into the area on northwest flow aloft, and provide more chances for evening and overnight storms. Temperatures also may drop at least for a day or two partially due to the increased cloud cover, but also in response to height falls and being remove from the high pressure center resulting in less amplified low level thermal ridge. Unfortunately, it looks like the high does try to squeeze back to the east late week into next weekend, so chances are we will see at least a few more days of widespread 100-105 degree heat to finish off August. Hopefully early September will see the demise of our high pressure, as some longer range ensemble members are suggesting. Ward && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are once again possible this afternoon thanks in part to a weak short-wave brushing the far north. Currently, present CAMs have KGUY with the best chances of seeing storms with enough confidence present to justify a PROB30 group for the current package. As for KAMA and KDHT, a handful of CAMs have seen the potential of an isolated storms passing through or within the vicinity of the terminal. However, confidence in this is only around 10 to 20 percent with chances of any actual impact to the terminals even less. Regardless, any storm that does pass over a terminal could result in a strong and erratic outflow wind gust and a brief period of reduce visibility due to heavy rainfall. Otherwise, look for VFR conditions to hold for the vast majority of the package. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ004-005-008>010-012>015-017-018. Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ019-020-317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...11  390 FXUS64 KBMX 231119 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 619 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 618 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026 - Heat: Minor to moderate heat risk will continue through the upcoming week. Heat indices are forecast to remain below 105 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1206 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026 There are a few lingering showers on the radar from earlier storms albeit decreasing in coverage after an evening of storms and gusty winds across the northwest third of the area ahead of a surface boundary. This boundary is expected to progress southward tonight into early Sunday before stalling across the southern third of Alabama. It is expected to meander in that area through the short term through early Tuesday. In the upper levels, a low is present over Ontario and Quebec and southward into the Great Lakes and much of Eastern Conus. At the same time, there is also a large ridge over New Mexico. This leaves Central Alabama in an at times active northwest flow regime. Look for isolated to scattered waves of convection at times through Monday. On Tuesday, the surface boundary is expected to meander back northward before fizzling out on Wednesday. However, the northwest flow will assist in another front making it into the area in the Thursday/Friday time frame. This will keep unsettled conditions along with scattered slightly higher storm chances in through the latter part of the forecast as moisture increases. Through the 7 day forecast, a few upper lows rotate through the current trough area over Eastern Canada and the Great Lakes with varying degrees of southward progression into Eastern Conus, but overall some degree of troughing remains. Our Southwest US ridge remains as well. The only difference will be a progression of surface boundaries. While the lower dew points have been nice. Look for those to rise through the week. However, overall temperatures should be a tad lower with the increased rain chances and progression of the boundaries and enough to keep chances low for needing a heat advisory over the next week if guidance continues this trend. With that said, it is August in Alabama and still hot, just not as hot as the past couple of weeks. 08 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026 There is high confidence in VFR conditions for most of this TAF period. However, showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage past 23/21z, with MGM and AUO carrying PROB30 groups for TSRA past 24/01z. Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage, and AMD LTD TO CLD AND WIND for EET due to a visibility sensor outage. /44/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air filtering into the area will result in a decrease in relative humidity (35 to 45%) for most locations on Sunday. However, wind speeds are expected to remain light, which should negate any significant fire weather concerns. Moisture gradually begins to return on Monday and into the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 93 66 90 65 / 20 0 10 10 Anniston 91 66 89 66 / 20 10 20 10 Birmingham 92 70 90 69 / 20 10 20 10 Tuscaloosa 96 72 93 71 / 20 10 20 20 Calera 93 70 90 68 / 20 10 20 10 Auburn 91 71 88 72 / 30 20 30 10 Montgomery 97 73 93 72 / 30 20 40 10 Troy 96 71 93 69 / 30 20 40 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION.../44/  359 FXUS64 KMOB 231117 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 617 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 616 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - A Heat Advisory is in effect for southeast Mississippi today for heat indices to around 108 degrees. - Afternoon rain chances increase today and especially into next week, mainly over the southern half of the local area. Storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A northwesterly upper-level flow pattern is in place across the local area as an upper ridge builds over the Rockies and upper troughing digs over the Great Lakes region. This general pattern is expected to continue through the week, allowing for several embedded shortwaves to push into the area from the northwest. The first of these shortwaves is currently passing across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Forcing from this shortwave helped to spark off a complex of storms which moved through north/central MS and AL this past evening. As we go through the rest of the overnight hours, outflow from these storms will push southeastward, likely reaching our coastal counties by the mid to late morning hours. Additionally, as the aforementioned shortwave passes overhead, guidance now suggests that it will help to push deep moisture (PWATs around 1.8-2.1 inches) into the area. It should be noted that this is a rather stark difference to what guidance was showing 24 hours ago. What this means is that we appear to be trending wetter for Sunday afternoon, particularly over the southern half of the local area where the remnant outflow boundary and sea breeze boundary serve as a focus for showers and storms to develop along. PoPs across the southern half of the area now range from 30-50%, with PoPs around 20% further inland. Although shear is weak, the highly unstable environment in place (SBCAPEs exceeding 3000 J/kg and DCAPEs up to around 1000 J/kg) could support a few strong to severe pulse-type storms, capable of producing gusty to damaging winds. A Marginal Risk of Severe Weather is in place for locations south of Highway 84. Activity will diminish by the evening hours. Rain chances increase even further on Monday and throughout the week as several more shortwaves push into the area within the northwesterly flow pattern aloft. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected to develop each afternoon, with the highest coverage expected over coastal counties as storms initially develop along the sea breeze and spread via outflow boundary collisions. Strong daytime heating will also lead to high instability which could support the development of a few strong to severe storms capable of producing gusty downburst winds and small hail, along with frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and very heavy rainfall. Additionally, as we often see whenever we have a northwesterly flow pattern this time of year, we will have to keep a close eye on if upstream storms are able to organize into an MCS and push into our local area. If an MCS is able to develop and impact our area, then we could see an increased risk for damaging winds. We will monitor trends closely over the coming days. Very hot conditions are expected on Sunday, with highs topping out in the mid to upper 90s. A Heat Advisory has been issued for our southeast Mississippi counties for Heat indices of around 108 degrees. The good news, though, is that with the increase in rain chances throughout the week, temperatures will fall back to their seasonal norms, with highs by midweek in the upper 80s to low 90s. Heat indices throughout the rest of the period should generally remain just below Heat Advisory criteria (around 102-107), although a few localized spots of 108-110 degrees cannot be ruled out. Lows will range from the low 70s inland to the upper 70s along the coast. A Low Risk of rip currents remains in place through the week. /96 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period outside of isolated showers and thunderstorms that will develop this afternoon, mainly along the coast. Brief periods of IFR/MVFR conditions and gusty winds will be possible in and around showers and thunderstorms. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 616 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 96 74 93 73 / 40 20 70 30 Pensacola 95 78 92 76 / 40 10 60 40 Destin 92 79 90 77 / 30 10 50 40 Evergreen 98 72 94 70 / 20 20 50 20 Waynesboro 98 73 94 70 / 20 20 50 20 Camden 96 73 91 69 / 20 20 40 20 Crestview 97 73 93 71 / 40 20 60 40 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...None. && $$  562 FXUS61 KCTP 231121 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 721 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Adjusted POPS up for Central and Southern PA today by about 20 percent from NBM guidance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unseasonably deep upper low over the Upper Great Lakes today will move Southeast to Lake Ontario by Monday morning bringing another few rounds of showers and thunderstorms, mainly across Northern PA this afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Unseasonably deep upper low over the Upper Great Lakes today will move Southeast to Lake Ontario by Monday morning bringing another few rounds of showers and thunderstorms, mainly across Northern PA this afternoon and evening. A subtle shortwave trough rotating around the southeast side of the upper low will spark some afternoon/evening showers and TSRA today, followed by only a brief downtrend in convection before a well-defined trough moves SE with its axis near the PA/OH border by shortly after midnight tonight. HREF and SREF MUCAPEs will top out between 750-1000 j/kg with wet bulb zero levels descending about 3-4 KFT to only around 6 KFT AGL across the Northern Mtns this afternoon and tonight. It's almost a slam dunk to see some periods of significant small hail from the stronger low-topped TSRA between 18Z Sun and 00Z Monday across the NW and maybe the Central/Ncent Mtns. SPC has a marginal risk of SVR TSRA for today across all of the CWA except for the southern tier layer of counties. Coincidentally, NBM POPS had to be raised by at least 20 percent (to agree with the SPC outlook) across the Central and Scent Mtns along with much of the Middle and Lower Susq Valley where a relative min of zero to 10 POPs was noted. Luckily, this second and more potent upper trough will be pivoting over the Commonwealth overnight tonight with MUCAPE of only a few hundred J/KG, supporting mainly showers and perhaps a low-topped TSRA or two moving inland from the warm waters of Lake Erie. Maxes only in the 60s and a brisk W wind across the northern and western mtns will make it feel much more like Sept/Oct than mid- Aug. Valley locations will see more sun preceding any convection with high temps reaching the mid 70s to near 80F in the Lower Susq Valley. Similar conditions are expected for Monday with the center of the upper low still hanging around our longitude and only moving slowly poleward. The SHRA/TSRA will likely be confined to only the nrn tier of counties in PA on Monday. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MVFR will predominate most airfields through the mid morning hours with pockets of lower IFR ceilings due to upslope flow at KBFD and KJST. We'll see a transition with varying VFR and MVFR in SHRA/Isolated low-topped TSRA focused in the 19-23Z window. Westerly wind gusts of 25+ Kts and small hail (GS) are possible across the northern Mtns of PA including KBFD. Cooling temperatures aloft and a 20+kt 850mb westerly jet should allow for moderately gusty winds for the late morning and afternoon hours. Outlook... Mon-Wed...Patchy morning fog, otherwise mainly VFR conditions return early next week with lower statewide precipitation chances. Thu...Chance of showers and storms again. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Dangelo KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo AVIATION...Lambert/Lambrech  566 FXUS63 KFGF 231121 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 621 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Hail to the size of golf balls and wind gusting to 70 mph will be the main threats. && .UPDATE... Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Patchy fog has developed over parts of northwest MN, but impacts have been very brief/localized in the KTVF area. I can't rule out other fog impacts during the morning period due to broad surface ridging and near calm winds along/east of the RRV, however the saturated layer is very shallow and tendency will be for highly localized pockets of ground fog. Looking ahead to Monday's severe chances: There has continued to be a trend over the last 24hr on guidance favoring the frontal zone pushing into our CWA during the afternoon. While larger scale forcing is primarily in Canada or mainly during the late evening/overnight, there should be enough lift associated with the front to support a few thunderstorms potentially initiating during the favorable afternoon/evening period when SBCAPE/DCAPE could be maximized near the frontal zone. Due to increasing mid/upper level flow effective shear values greater than 35kt+ are advertised with generally straight hodographs supportive of splitting supercells. Discrete cells could support sig hail potential, though with shear profiles orientation in relation to the cold front mergers may be more likely if coverage increases. Higher DCAPE and mix layers higher gusts could accompany RFD's, though weaker 0-3km shear lowers confidence in a larger sig wind threat. The best chance for thunderstorms is actually later as the main wave passes to the north in Canada and better forcing moves through our region. If thunderstorms fail to initiate early on, the tendency would be for lower impacts from thunderstorm activity that would be much more elevated in nature later in the evening/overnight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...Synopsis... Northwest flow prevails through the forecast period, with the passage of several shortwaves. A weak system moves into central and southeast North Dakota on Sunday, with low chances for a passing afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Best chances will be further west, however. A better chance for showers and storms will occur late Monday into Tuesday, when a stronger shortwave moves southeast out of Manitoba and into northwest and north central Minnesota. This will bring us a chance for isolated severe thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Moving into Tuesday, parts of northwest Minnesota could see an additional round of showers as weak shortwave activity continues. H5 ridging over the western CONUS is expected to flatten, thus weakening our northwest flow heading into the second half of next week. Ensemble guidance suggests additional rain chances as we head into Friday and Saturday, but will ultimately depend on the speed and progression of antecedent shortwave activity and shifts in the overall pattern. ...Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Late Monday... There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into the evening as a moderately strong shortwave pushes across the area. Steep low and mid level lapse rates will be in place during peak heating, with a cold front approaching from the northwest. Modeled surface CAPE ranges from 1500 to 2500 J/Kg across various ensembles and deterministic NAM/NAM Nest. Low to mid level shear is marginal, especially further ahead of the cold front. Hodographs, however, are relatively straight and have a degree of consistency in model soundings. If storms are able to form, there should be just enough shear to allow a mention of supercells, with a chance for splitting supercells or hybrid clusters. In a higher impact scenario, supercells form, bringing potential hazards including wind gusts upwards of 75 mph and large hail to the size of golf balls. If atmospheric support shifts more towards clusters, the potential hazards could include wind gusts upwards of 70 mph and hail up to the size of ping pong balls. Alternatively, in a lower end scenario, storms form later in the evening and severe storms become less likely, but could still support elevated hail producing storms during the late evening and overnight. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Patchy ground fog has developed over parts of eastern ND and northwest MN, with highly localized/brief visibility reductions under 1sm. Fog impacts at TAF sites are highly uncertain due to the isolated nature of this fog. If impacts were to occur they would be before 14Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period with light winds becoming southeast 5-10kt in eastern ND (around 12kt at KDVL). A few showers may move into northeast ND after 09Z with the best chance during this TAF period (30%) at KDVL. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...DJR DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...DJR  593 FXUS63 KMKX 231122 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 622 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - An isolated waterspout or two are possible over Lake Michigan through midday. - Dry and pleasant conditions early this week. - Storm chances return Tuesday evening into Wednesday along with warmer and more humid conditions. && .UPDATE... Issued 621 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 One more shortwave will slide down Lake Michigan this afternoon. This will bring some clouds and a few showers to the open lake areas, but they should just miss southeast WI. Winds in southern WI will remain steady out of the northwest for most of the day, and then become northerly near Lake Michigan and lighter for inland areas. The surface high pressure will drift across Wisconsin this evening through Monday. Highs will be a little below normal, in the mid 70s. Cronce && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1157 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Tonight through Monday: Mostly clear skies, light winds, and decreasing dewpoints are expected tonight as high pressure builds in, with lows a few degrees below normal in the low 50s most places. Quiet weather will then continue Sunday and Monday as the high gradually builds overhead. A drier and cooler airmass is expected through this period with temperatures a couple to a few degrees below normal along with lower humidity. Mostly clear skies will persist Sunday and Monday, aside from some late morning and afternoon cumulus each day. DDV && .LONG TERM... Issued 1157 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Tuesday through Saturday: Surface low pressure is expected to pass by to the north Tuesday night into Wednesday, along with an associated cold front and shortwave. This system will likely bring shower and storm chances back to southern Wisconsin Tue evening into Wednesday. There is disagreement among models with the exact timing of the stronger forcing, which would impact the strength of any storms given typical diurnal instability trends. Models are showing a moderate amount of shear with this system, so a few stronger storms aren't out of the question if the timing is right to tap some higher instability during the daytime hours. Warmer temps and higher dewpoints are expected to return during this time period as well under breezy southerly winds ahead of the approaching low. Mainly dry weather is expected Thursday and Friday under surface high pressure. Could see a few diurnal showers though as a few weak impulses move through the the persistent cyclonic flow aloft. A stronger shortwave is then anticipated arrive Sat per latest models, bringing shower/storm chances back to southern Wisconsin. Near normal temperatures are likely for the second half of the week. DDV && .AVIATION... Issued 621 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Expect diurnal cumulus clouds today with bases around 5000 ft AGL and highest concentrations in east central and southeast WI. The wind will be steady out of the northwest once again, but lighter for inland areas than yesterday. Cronce && .MARINE... Issued 621 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Isolated showers and storms will remain possible over the lake through mid morning, with a small chance for a waterspout mainly over the north half. Otherwise, breezy north to northwest winds will persist today due to being sandwiched between deepening low pressure around 29.7 inches over the eastern Great Lakes and high pressure of 30.2 inches building in from the northwest. Winds will eventually become lighter by midday Monday, persisting into Tuesday as the high moves overhead. Breezy southerly winds will develop later Tuesday into Wednesday as the high exits and low pressure of 29.6 inches approaches from Manitoba. Cronce && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  596 FXUS64 KEPZ 231122 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 522 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 520 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Above normal temperatures across southern New Mexico and far west Texas through the week ahead. Lowland highs will range upper 90s to 105, which will approach daily records. - Isolated thunderstorms limited to the mountains for today. Dry elsewhere. - Slight chances of thunderstorms return Thursday into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1044 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The saying goes, big bubble no trouble. But for us the next week will be dominated by a big bubble of high pressure aloft which will give the lowlands of our area high temperatures at or above 100F. The first part of the week looks the hottest with high temperatures running 10 to 12 degrees above average. We will be near record high temperatures Monday through Wednesday. The reason for this late summer heat is a big area of upper level high pressure that will wander around New Mexico and Arizona this week into the start of next week. The upper level ridge will really limit convection each afternoon, with only the mountains having a slight chance for thunderstorms each day through this weekend. The upper level ridge will be centered over southern New Mexico for Monday through Wednesday and that is when we will see our hottest temperatures. We may need a heat advisory for some of the lowlands of Texas some of those days. For Thursday and Friday, the upper level ridge will drift ever so slightly to the west into eastern Arizona, which will allow a degree or two to come off of our afternoon high temperatures and may give the mountains a little better chance for rain. It remains to be seen how for into the lowlands thunderstorms may be able to creep for the end of the week. For next weekend, we will see more of the same as the upper level ridge drifts back toward southern New Mexico. Rain chances will be limited in area mountains next weekend and high temperatures will again creep to near record levels. We will likely start September out on a hot note, as the upper level ridge shows no signs of moving off or breaking down. So the triple digit heat will continue in the lowlands which is a little unusual for the month of September. For the climate record of El Paso, a little less than 2% of our 100 degree days have ever occurred in September. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 518 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions will continue with SKC-FEW120/250. Winds will top out around 10 knots with occasional gusts up to 20 knots. Direction will be variable this morning and then again overnight tonight but will be from the southeast during the afternoon and early evening hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 518 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Abnormal warmth and dry conditions will persist through the period, likely lasting into September. Afternoon highs will run about 10 degrees above normal with lowland RH values in the lower to mid teens. Thunderstorm chances albeit low will be limited to the mountains. Winds will be light with good to very good venting. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 74 102 75 104 / 10 10 10 0 Sierra Blanca 67 99 67 100 / 10 10 10 0 Las Cruces 68 101 69 103 / 10 10 10 0 Alamogordo 72 101 72 103 / 10 10 10 10 Cloudcroft 55 78 56 79 / 20 20 20 20 Truth or Consequences 71 100 72 102 / 10 10 10 0 Silver City 64 95 65 96 / 20 10 20 0 Deming 69 102 70 103 / 10 10 10 0 Lordsburg 70 100 71 103 / 10 10 10 0 West El Paso Metro75 102 75 105 / 10 10 10 0 Dell City 70 102 70 104 / 10 10 10 0 Fort Hancock 74 106 74 108 / 10 10 10 0 Loma Linda 69 97 69 98 / 10 10 10 0 Fabens 72 102 72 105 / 10 10 10 0 Santa Teresa 71 101 71 103 / 10 10 10 0 White Sands HQ 75 103 75 104 / 10 10 10 0 Jornada Range 70 101 71 103 / 10 10 10 0 Hatch 70 104 71 106 / 10 10 10 0 Columbus 72 102 73 104 / 10 10 10 0 Orogrande 68 100 69 103 / 10 10 10 0 Mayhill 60 91 60 91 / 20 20 20 10 Mescalero 58 89 59 90 / 20 10 20 20 Timberon 56 87 57 90 / 20 10 20 0 Winston 62 92 63 93 / 20 10 20 0 Hillsboro 69 99 70 101 / 20 10 20 0 Spaceport 68 101 69 102 / 10 10 10 0 Lake Roberts 58 92 59 93 / 20 20 20 10 Hurley 65 97 66 99 / 20 10 20 0 Cliff 68 101 68 102 / 20 20 20 0 Mule Creek 65 97 66 99 / 20 20 20 0 Faywood 68 97 68 98 / 10 10 10 0 Animas 70 101 71 103 / 10 10 10 0 Hachita 69 99 70 102 / 10 10 10 0 Antelope Wells 67 99 69 101 / 10 10 10 0 Cloverdale 65 94 66 96 / 10 10 10 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown  600 FXUS65 KPUB 231122 CCA AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Pueblo CO 522 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increased flash flood potential over the Aspen Acres burn scar today, as showers and thunderstorms become more numerous across the area. - Showers and storms continue through much of the incoming week, though with a downtrend in coverage late week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 1236 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Showers and isolated thunderstorms still drifting across the area early this morning, with plentiful moisture and weak upward forcing continuing. Still expect most activity to end by sunrise, persisting longest over the far eastern plains where low level jet may help boost activity for a few more hours. Brief break in convection Sunday morning, before mountain storms develop again starting around 19z, with activity spreading slowly over the plains and valleys from late afternoon into the evening. Precip signal for the Aspen Acres burn scar in the 00z CAMs is not quite as impressive as it was in the 12z data, as most forcing is rather weak and subtle (se surface winds are lacking in the 00z run), though much like Saturday, plenty of moisture and convection is in place, with very hard to predict outflow collisions/interactions driving convection. Will keep Flash Flood Watch up for the burn scar this afternoon and evening, as rainfall amounts of over 1.5 inches fell between Beulah and Pueblo in less than an hr on Saturday, just missing the scar. Expect max temps today to cool just a few degf over mountains, as mid level heights fall slightly, while plains readings stay relatively unchanged. On Monday, very little change in the pattern, with another round of afternoon and evening convection across the area. Will wait on another flash flood watch for the Aspen Acres burn scar to see how Sunday's convection and low level environment evolve, but may need another highlight as relatively stagnant weather persists. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 1236 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Upper level high pressure drifts back westward into the swrn U.S. during the week, with mid/upper level flow becoming slightly more nwly through the period. Still not much change expected Tue, with another round of afternoon/evening storms focused over the mountains, drifting onto the plains in the evening. Weak front may then drop south south through the plains late Tue into Wed, potentially enhancing convection over the eastern mountains and across the plains on Wed, as enhanced easterly upslope winds behind the front refresh low level moisture. Max temps will drift downward a few degf by Wed, as ridge shifts subtly west and moisture increases. Slow transition to drier weather starts Thu as ridge gets far enough west to cut-off deeper mid-level moisture, but still expect the usual crop of afternoon/evening storms, most numerous eastern mountains and plains. Drier and warmer weather then in store for Friday into next weekend, though we never completely flush the moisture out of the area, so at least isolated afternoon/evening convection will continue each day, especially over the mountains. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1125 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions anticipated across the forecast area, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS, during the overnight hours, though decided to maintain mention of VCSH at KCOS and KPUB until 07z as a few light showers linger. On Sunday, convection expected to redevelop over the higher terrain by 18z-19z, spreading to lower elevations after 20z. KCOS and KPUB: PROB30 for -TSRA once again starting 21z-22z and lasting until 03z. KALS: PROB30 for variable gusts and -TSRA again starting at 20z, lasting until 02z. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from this afternoon through this evening for COZ079-080-086. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...PETERSEN AVIATION...MOORE  677 FXUS63 KABR 231125 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 625 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 40-50% chance for showers and thunderstorms during the day today across south central SD, expanding over north central SD to northeastern SD/west central MN this evening into the overnight. - There is a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) across central SD and a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) over much of northeastern SD this evening. The main concerns will be golf ball size hail, wind gusts exceeding 60 mph, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall. - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather Monday night. Threat include one inch hail and 60 mph. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 119 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the 50s with winds out of the northeast to east at less than 10 mph. Winds are expected to move around to be out of the south to southeast after sunrise. There is a 35-50% chance of some showers in central SD early this morning which will move east across the forecast area throughout the day. Our next chance for precipitation will be today with showers starting in south central SD this morning. The NAM Nest is the most excited about this event as it keeps showers and storms in south central SD until mid afternoon while most other CAMs have a bit of a dry spell during the late morning into the afternoon. The next round moves into north central SD later in the evening, generally after 7 PM CDT. These will move in a generally east to southeast direction, spreading into northeast SD through the late evening and into the overnight hours, potentially even into the early morning hours for east central SD (around Watertown). There is a Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) across central SD and a Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) across most of northeast SD with main hazards of 1.5 inch hail, wind gusts of 60-70 mph, and brief heavy rainfall. MLCAPE Sunday evening is around 1000-1200 J/kg, increasing to about 1500 J/kg Monday, where there is also a Marginal Risk with hazards of 1 inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts. Storms Monday look to last into the early morning hours of Tuesday. An area of high pressure moves in for the middle of the week and storm chances return for the end of the week into next weekend. Temperatures still remain around average for this time of year with highs in the upper 70s to 80s. Not really anything in the way of smoke is expected for the next couple days. Winds across south central SD could be a little stronger today, gusting up to 30 mph at times. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will prevail today except in or near heavier showers or thunderstorms. Morning activity will occur around Pierre. This evening through tonight, showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into north central SD and progress southeast or east-southeast from there. There is low confidence in timing as most hi-res cams have slowed the approach, pushing it off to after 0z. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...20  671 FXUS64 KCRP 231125 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 625 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 618 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM - Major to Extreme risk of heat-related impacts continue into next week with peak afternoon heat indices around 110 - Daily elevated fire weather conditions over the Brush Country && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 125 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 High pressure continues near the Four Corners region, shifting slightly to the south/southeast through the week. This will keep our days very hot and dry through the middle of the week. Guidance continues to come in lower than expected for the next few days, so have blended the NBM with the most recent maxT observations. This increased the forecast temperatures to closer values to what we have been seeing. With these higher forecast values, elected to issue a Heat Advisory for today from noon to 8 PM. Winds will also be fairly light today, which will lead to a moderate to high WetBulb Globe Temperature today. This will be especially important for those working outside to consider: spend a maximum of 2 hours outdoor, with at least 4 breaks per hour. Remember to stay hydrated, check those backseats, and avoid long exposure in these temperatures. For more information be sure to check out weather.gov/heatsafety. Late next week, guidance is hinting at the potential for a disturbance to sneak around the eastern periphery of the ridge. This could combine with some returning moisture to provide some relief. We will keep our fingers crossed, but this is still far enough out that we are not holding our breath. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Not much change in overall forecast. VFR conditions will prevail through much of the TAF cycle with the exception of MVFR conditions at ALI and VCT briefly this morning and again Monday morning. S-SE 10-15 knots gusting to around 20 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 125 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Light to moderate (BF 2-4) onshore breezes will continue through the period, with occasional fresh (BF 5) breezes possible during the late afternoon/evening hours, especially south of Port Aransas. Seas are expected to remain around 2-3 feet. Rain chances will remain near zero through the middle of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 125 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ERC values are in the 75-89th percentile, with low humidity, dry to critically dry fuels, and hot temperatures, leading to elevated fire weather conditions over the Brush Country and portions of the Coastal Plains. Conditions will need to be closely monitored as a few locations across the Brush Country could even see critical fire weather conditions into next week. Considered an RFD for today; however, the winds should remain low enough to forego this. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 99 76 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 104 76 103 76 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 107 77 106 77 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 104 74 104 74 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 92 80 92 80 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 105 75 105 76 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 103 74 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 91 81 91 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ230>234-241>247-342>344-346-347. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LS/77 AVIATION...TE/81  705 FXUS64 KMOB 231125 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 625 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 624 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - A Heat Advisory is in effect for southeast Mississippi today for heat indices to around 108 degrees. - Afternoon rain chances increase today and especially into next week, mainly over the southern half of the local area. Storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The current forecast is on track an no updates are needed. /13 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A northwesterly upper-level flow pattern is in place across the local area as an upper ridge builds over the Rockies and upper troughing digs over the Great Lakes region. This general pattern is expected to continue through the week, allowing for several embedded shortwaves to push into the area from the northwest. The first of these shortwaves is currently passing across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Forcing from this shortwave helped to spark off a complex of storms which moved through north/central MS and AL this past evening. As we go through the rest of the overnight hours, outflow from these storms will push southeastward, likely reaching our coastal counties by the mid to late morning hours. Additionally, as the aforementioned shortwave passes overhead, guidance now suggests that it will help to push deep moisture (PWATs around 1.8-2.1 inches) into the area. It should be noted that this is a rather stark difference to what guidance was showing 24 hours ago. What this means is that we appear to be trending wetter for Sunday afternoon, particularly over the southern half of the local area where the remnant outflow boundary and sea breeze boundary serve as a focus for showers and storms to develop along. PoPs across the southern half of the area now range from 30-50%, with PoPs around 20% further inland. Although shear is weak, the highly unstable environment in place (SBCAPEs exceeding 3000 J/kg and DCAPEs up to around 1000 J/kg) could support a few strong to severe pulse-type storms, capable of producing gusty to damaging winds. A Marginal Risk of Severe Weather is in place for locations south of Highway 84. Activity will diminish by the evening hours. Rain chances increase even further on Monday and throughout the week as several more shortwaves push into the area within the northwesterly flow pattern aloft. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected to develop each afternoon, with the highest coverage expected over coastal counties as storms initially develop along the sea breeze and spread via outflow boundary collisions. Strong daytime heating will also lead to high instability which could support the development of a few strong to severe storms capable of producing gusty downburst winds and small hail, along with frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and very heavy rainfall. Additionally, as we often see whenever we have a northwesterly flow pattern this time of year, we will have to keep a close eye on if upstream storms are able to organize into an MCS and push into our local area. If an MCS is able to develop and impact our area, then we could see an increased risk for damaging winds. We will monitor trends closely over the coming days. Very hot conditions are expected on Sunday, with highs topping out in the mid to upper 90s. A Heat Advisory has been issued for our southeast Mississippi counties for Heat indices of around 108 degrees. The good news, though, is that with the increase in rain chances throughout the week, temperatures will fall back to their seasonal norms, with highs by midweek in the upper 80s to low 90s. Heat indices throughout the rest of the period should generally remain just below Heat Advisory criteria (around 102-107), although a few localized spots of 108-110 degrees cannot be ruled out. Lows will range from the low 70s inland to the upper 70s along the coast. A Low Risk of rip currents remains in place through the week. /96 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period outside of isolated showers and thunderstorms that will develop this afternoon, mainly along the coast. Brief periods of IFR/MVFR conditions and gusty winds will be possible in and around showers and thunderstorms. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 616 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 96 74 93 73 / 40 20 70 30 Pensacola 95 78 92 76 / 40 10 60 40 Destin 92 79 90 77 / 30 10 50 40 Evergreen 98 72 94 70 / 20 20 50 20 Waynesboro 98 73 94 70 / 20 20 50 20 Camden 96 73 91 69 / 20 20 40 20 Crestview 97 73 93 71 / 40 20 60 40 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...None. && $$  673 FXUS65 KPIH 231125 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 525 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storm Prediction Center has areas of marginal chance and slight chance of severe thunderstorms for today and tonight. - Thunderstorms have less chance of occurrence, but greater severity potential today. - Breezy conditions in the central Idaho mountains and Snake River plain today, even outside thunderstorm activity. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 138 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Southwest upper level flow will continue to bring moist and unstable air into the forecast area. SPC now has an area along the UT border that has a slight chance of severe thunderstorms, meaining large hail or gusts in excess of 50KT/58MPH. The marginal contour around it also covers a large amount of the forecast area. It mainly leaves out the central Idaho mountains, which are in general thunderstorm forecast area. The coverage of thunderstorms shrinks on Mon and Tue. The best thunderstorm coverage Mon is expected to be the highlands along the UT and WY borders. Then on Tue it shift to the north along the MT border. Cloud cover actually decreases in the late morning, which is what allows enough destabilization to increase the intensity if not the coverage of the thunderstorms. Afternoon highs will be cooler today after the cooler air moved in during the evening and late night hours last night. The final thing is that a low moving onshore and through southern Canada will push up the upper level wind over the central Idaho mountains and the northern part of the Snake River plain. This will bring G25KT to G30KT on the ridges in the central Idaho mountains, and G25KT to locations like Rexburg and Idaho Falls and the Arco Desert. Tuesday should be breezy to windy once again. For the extended period, either a partial breakdown of the upper level ridge from a trough coming from the west or at least a flattening of the ridge over Idaho should continue the not as hot temperatures with dry westerly flow supressing showers and thunderstorms, especially after Wed. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 517 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 SPC continues to put 4 of the airdromes within a boundary of marginal risk of severe TSRA. So for all except KSUN have VRB35G50KT in the PROB30 group for the TSRA activity. Just how much will actually have SHRA is up for debate. Hourly model output indicates KIDA will have almost zero risk of showers when the TS show up, so have made the TAF just that way. Once again, peak TS activity is from 23/19Z to 24/02Z, with slight adjustment either way for each individual forecast. Outside of TS, wind gets G25KT at KSUN and KIDA, while KDIJ and KPIH at least have some sustained wind at 15KT. With less moisture to work with, but plenty of instability, do not forsee any significant impact to CIG or VSBY, although the higher moisture content air at KDIJ and KPIH may reduce VSBY to marginal VFR. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 138 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Abundant lightning yesterday over receptive fuels had at least several starts. The lightning show continues today, but in lower coverage or probability of occurrence. Best coverage will be along the WY border region of the Eastern Idaho Dispatch AoR. Over a good portion of that Dispatch area and the Southern Idaho Dispatch area the expectations are few thunderstorms, but much stronger in intensity, with solid chances of severe strength thunderstorms in both regions. Much of the Central Idaho dispatch area has only general thunderstorms, with the eastern areas getting closer to the marginal risk of severe storms. Cooler air has moved in, but this will be partially offset in western areas by the strong sunshine with less cloudiness. Some lower elevation areas will see humidity readings drop below 15 percent, but it is low elevations from Salmon to Challis where that occurs, where wind will be somewhat lighter. A low moving across the continent from west to east will increase wind today for the central Idaho mountains and portions of the Snake River plain. Critical fire weather conditions will be very close in that Salmon to Challis corridor, but otherwise not expecting anything close to critical. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Messick AVIATION...Messick FIRE WEATHER...Messick  757 FXUS65 KSLC 231127 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 527 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1013 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026... - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall across most of the region through the weekend. - A Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe thunderstorms is outlooked for Sunday afternoon and evening across much of northern Utah. There is a 10% chance of wind gusts in excess of 70 mph with these thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. && && .AVIATION... KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal through the period. Dry conditions will continue through the early afternoon before isolated convection develops during the afternoon with ~50% chance of impacting the terminal. This activity becomes less convective and more showery overnight. Winds will be light and diurnally driven aside from variable and gusty winds associated with precipitation near the terminal. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist for the entire airspace through the period. Conditions across the northeastern airspace are starting to dry aside from a few weak showers. Dry conditions will persist through the early afternoon before more convection develops across most of the airspace. This activity will transition to more showery precipitation across the northern airspace overnight. Winds will remain light before becoming breezy out of the southwest this afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER, Issued 338 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026... Some weak showers continue across central Utah this morning. This activity will continue to decrease in coverage. Storms will redevelop this afternoon across most of Utah. There exists a slight risk of strong to severe storms across northern Utah this afternoon as storms will be capable of producing large hail and strong winds. These storms will gradually weaken late in the evening and overnight, but persist in weaker form across northern Utah, similar to what has occurred the last couple of nights. More storms will develop once again on Monday, but drier air will start to move into the region so precipitation chances will decrease over the coming days until most of the activity is mostly isolated to the high terrain by midweek. Relative humidity will approach critical levels by midweek with southwesterly winds increasing towards the end of the week which will lead to locally critical fire weather conditions. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Seaman/Kruse AVIATION...Mahan FIRE WEATHER...Mahan For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  807 FXUS61 KBTV 231129 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 729 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 323 AM EDT Sunday... No significant changes to the current forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 323 AM EDT Sunday... 1. Frontal system crosses our area today bringing showers with embedded thunderstorms to the region. 2. Showers continue into Monday as low pressure lags behind departing frontal system, leaving cyclonic flow in place. 3. Showery end to the week before trending drier over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 323 AM EDT Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers upstream across western New York will lift northeastward into our region today as a surface frontal system will move across our area. Morning showers and convection may be an inhibiting factor for possible additional convection this afternoon. Current forecast is for maximum temperatures to reach the 70s areawide this afternoon. These temperatures along with dewpoints into the upper 50s to lower 60s will lead to CAPE around 500-1000 J/kg by the afternoon. Modest mid level lapse rates along with some surface based instability will mean we will have to monitor for some possible severe storms this afternoon. CAMS still handling the timing of convection a bit differently today, and morning convection will continue to be a possible limiting factor to prevent storms from being too strong. Several rounds of showers, but should mostly be scattered so rainfall totals should not be too hefty, generally half an inch or less except in locations that may have multiple rounds of thunderstorms today. KEY MESSAGE 2: Although surface fronts cross our area today, the parent low pressure system will linger behind it, and make it's way north of our region during the day Monday. Upper level low pressure system will also be crossing our region Monday into Tuesday. This will lead to continued light rain showers, though less convective threat. Still mentioning slight chance for thunderstorms during the afternoon, though surface instability looks less impressive on Monday. Flow will also become more southwesterly and there will be noticeable influence off Lake Ontario as showers become more concentrated in the St Lawrence valley on Monday night into Tuesday. KEY MESSAGE 3: An upper-level trough builds in on Thursday and Friday, bringing the chance for some showers. A weak northern- stream surface low should track from west to east out of the Great Lakes Region and into Quebec during this time, amplifying the showers. Model guidance has trended weaker and more out to sea for any secondary low that tries to develop on Friday, keeping the heaviest rain southeast of the region and causing Saturday to trend drier. During that period, GEFS/EPS/CMCE combined probabilities of more than a half inch of rain are down below 25 percent. Broad upper troughing and associated cyclonic flow should remain over the weekend, keeping temperatures on the cooler side, but conditions should remain mostly dry. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 12Z Monday...A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings currently exist, with VFR visibility everywhere. Ceilings will rise during the day today and they should reach VFR everywhere except MPV by mid- morning. Ceilings at MPV should eventually rise to VFR, but it could take until evening. Passing showers are expected during the day and this evening, with a brief period of steady rain expected across much of northern New York this morning. These showers will mostly drop the visibility to low VFR and MVFR, but brief periods of IFR are possible in the heaviest showers. Thunder is also expected in the heaviest showers, along with strong erratic winds. The showers should be done by midnight, and dry conditions are expected for the rest of the night. Winds will be southerly during this period, with gusts in the 10-20 KT range during the day, decreasing in the evening. The strongest gusts are expected at BTV and PBG. LLWS is possible at MSS this morning for a couple hours. Patchy fog formation is possible tonight where clearing can occur, with the highest probability of occurrence at SLK and MPV. Outlook... Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Neiles DISCUSSION...Neiles/Myskowski AVIATION...Myskowski  810 FXUS63 KDLH 231129 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 629 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The next chance for showers and storms will be late Monday night through Tuesday. - Severe storms are possible, particularly Tuesday afternoon and evening with the passage of a cold front. - Seasonal, dry conditions return for the later part of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Surface high pressure settling into the area this morning has made good radiational cooling conditions across the Northland. Fog has already developed in a few of our more fog prone locations this morning, and we are likely to see additional development through early Sunday morning. Any morning fog will quickly burn off after sunrise on Sunday, giving way to a very pleasant and quiet late August day. The high pressure will providing mostly sunny skies and light northwest winds. Minimum relative humidity values will dip into the 30 to 40 percent range during the afternoon hours. Tonight will feature another round of mostly clear skies and chilly overnight low temperatures in the forties with a few locations possibly dipping into the upper 30s. Late Sunday night into Monday daytime, we will have a leading wave of elevated warm air advection and a warm front pass west to east across the area. Some models are producing showers and storms with it, but the low level dry air appears to be too stout to allow any precipitation to reach the ground. Also, most models are completely dry for us on Monday, and have decided to leave the forecast dry for now. I do expect an increase in cloud cover and perhaps some elevated radar echoes, but that dry air is likely to keep the low levels dry. Precipitation chances increase as the main upper level shortwave moves across the area late Monday night through Wednesday. Monday night into early Tuesday we have some elevated instability, so we will likely have some rumbles of thunder overnight, but am not concerned for severe storms. We do have an area of Marginal severe risk just to our west from SPC, but suspect this may shift farther west based on the latest models. If we get any strong storms, they would be towards Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be warm and more humid, with some surface based instability developing during the afternoon and evening hours. Then, just as the upper level shortwave moves across the area and deep layer shear parameters increase, I expect another wave of showers and thunderstorms to move through the area, which will have the potential for strong to severe storms. While things look interesting now, we will have to monitor for timing or other changes that may change this. Showers and non-severe storms will redevelop across the area on Wednesday in the cyclonic flow behind the upper level shortwave. Wednesday and Thursday will be cooler again. The cyclonic flow may help to generate isolated showers again on Thursday, though the incoming dry air may quash them. We currently have a dry forecast, but if we have a bit more moisture, that may change. High pressure and northwest flow aloft return for the latter portions of the work week, bringing a return to dry conditions across the Northland for Thursday into Friday. Precipitation chances remain below fifteen percent through the end of the period. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Some patchy MVFR to LIFR fog and dense fog early this morning, with with BRD and HIB seeing the worst conditions in fog. The fog is expected to burn off shortly after sunrise this morning in the 12-14Z timeframe. VFR conditions under mostly sunny skies develop today along with light winds under high pressure. There is some signal for patchyfog/dense fog development again tonight, with the best probabilities at HIB and HYR, though most terminals may see at least some fog. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 140 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Northwest winds gusting up to twenty knots will ease overnight into Sunday morning over the nearshore waters of western Lake Superior, with waves subsiding to one to two feet. Winds to become light and variable during the day on Sunday as high pressure settles over the area. The nearly calm winds linger overnight before gradually turning southeast on Monday, but generally remaining under 10 knots through the day. Waves to generally be 1 foot or less Sunday night and Monday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 140 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Winds will be significantly weaker today than yesterday as a ridge of high pressure builds into the area. For most areas, even wind gusts will be less than 10 mph. Minimum relative humidity will drop a bit lower to 30 to 40 percent. A few places could dip below 30 percent. Relative humidity remains low for northwest Wisconsin on Monday, but northern Minnesota RH values will increase to over 35 percent. Winds will become southerly and may gust around 10 mph during the afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase for Monday night through Wednesday, with RH values remaining above 40 percent both days. Precipitation chances are highest along and north of the Iron Range, but most areas have at least a 40 percent chance of measurable rainfall. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LE AVIATION...Rothstein MARINE...LE FIRE WEATHER...LE  792 FXUS64 KSHV 231128 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 628 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 123 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Oppressive heat will continue today through much of the coming work week, although afternoon temperatures may trend slightly cooler (near or below 100 degrees) by late week. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible today generally south of I-20, before a cluster of storms slide southeast and possibly affect portions of Southern Arkansas and Eastern Louisiana Monday morning. - Considerable cloud cover from these storms Monday should yield slightly cooler conditions over much of Southern Arkansas and Northcentral/Northeast Louisiana. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 123 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The convective cluster that affected much of NCntrl and Ern AR Saturday afternoon/evening continues to weaken as it pushes through SE AR/NCntrl MS attm, although the latest sfc obs and mosaic radar imagery indicate an extensive outflow bndry extending from Wrn Bowie/Cass and Ern Marion Counties in NE TX to near the I-20 corridor of N LA, with accompanying weak forcing aloft associated with the shortwave impulse sinking S into the Lower MS Valley and the Gulf Coast states providing enough large scale forcing within a still moderately unstable and moist air mass characteristic of MLCapes of 1500-2000 J/kg and PW's of 1.8-1.9 inches to produce isolated convection near and just S of this bndry. This should persist through the overnight hours and may linger into the morning after daybreak, with the short term progs suggesting that this bndry becoming stationary later this morning somewhere over E TX/N LA, and could serve as a focus for additional isolated convection this afternoon mainly S of I-20 across E TX/N LA, especially as another weak mid level shortwave impulse sliding SE around the Ern periphery of the NM/W TX upper ridge potentially enhances convection development once heating is maximized. One fly in the ointment though is the potential for elevated cigs that the progs want to hang on to across much of the region through at least the afternoon near and ahead of this mid level impulse, which may tend to result in slightly cooler temps than what was observed Saturday. However, also considering the possibility for localized compressional warming near and just S of the aforementioned sfc bndry, which would be enhanced especially should breaks in the cigs occur and if they diminish entirely. Given the higher sun angle and trends in recent days, have played the pessimist and bumped up max temps 1-2 degrees this afternoon, but should see enough mixing given the very dry/parched grounds such that heat indices should again range from 105-110 degrees areawide once again. A few locales may exceed the 110 degree heat index threshold for an Extreme Heat Warning should temps get hotter than forecast or mixing is not as pronounced, but the extent of elevated cigs today provides enough confidence to refrain from upgrading the Heat Advisory to a Warning through early this evening. While locally gusty winds will be possible this afternoon and evening from the isolated convection, mostly quiet conditions are expected for much of tonight, although our focus will turn upstream over Nrn AR later tonight as a weak shortwave trough will traverse SE through the Ozarks into the Mid-South region, which should focus more organized clusters of convection over this area as they slide SE into Ern AR/Nrn and Wrn MS. Storm organization should increase late with the development of a 30-40kt SWrly LLJ, with the potential for at least a portion of this convection possibly affecting areas of Srn AR/NCntrl and NE LA by/after daybreak through early to mid-afternoon. Did expand slight chance/chance pops farther W into Srn AR/N LA from the previous forecast/NBM, with the thickening convective debris likely also influencing the max temp forecast for these areas as well, resulting in cooler (sub 100 degree) temps especially E of the I-49 corridor, thus ending their string of consecutive 100 degree days. While the existing Heat Advisory will need to be extended into Monday, have punted this decision to the day shift as a portions of the Ern zones should be able to be omitted from the Advisory given the cooler temps/thickening cigs. Unfortunately, this should be short-lived as the cigs thin during the evening/overnight hours, and upper ridging begins to expand back E into the region. With the oppressive heat returning areawide Tuesday, it's likely that a Heat Advisory will again be needed areawide, although the influence of the ridging will begin to weaken by mid and late week as the ridge center begins to retrograde back W into the Desert SW. Thus, max temps should gradually retreat a bit away from the century mark except possibly over E TX, with a more unsettled NWrly flow yielding the potential for isolated to scattered convection by late week for at least the Ern half/two-thirds of the area. Depending on the strength of the perturbations in the NW flow, convection development may expand farther W as the ridge weakens, which may result in cooler temps here as well as the potential for much needed rainfall. However, this NW flow regime will also yield the potential for isolated strong/severe convection during the afternoon/evening given the persistent extreme heat and instability present. 15 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 For the 23/12Z TAF period, VFR conditions will prevail outside of isolated convection that is forecast to develop during the afternoon hours. The only exception is the possibility for VCTS conditions around LFK from daybreak through mid-morning. Light/variable winds to increase to near 6 knots today, relaxing to around 3 knots after 24/00Z. /05/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 123 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening for isolated strong storms that may produce locally gusty winds across portions of East Texas and North Louisiana south of I-20. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 103 78 100 79 / 10 0 10 10 MLU 101 75 95 75 / 20 10 40 20 DEQ 100 73 99 72 / 0 10 20 10 TXK 101 76 100 77 / 10 10 20 10 ELD 101 75 96 75 / 10 20 30 10 TYR 104 80 104 79 / 10 0 0 10 GGG 104 78 104 79 / 10 0 10 10 LFK 103 77 102 77 / 20 10 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...05  769 FXUS65 KPUB 231128 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 528 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increased flash flood potential over the Aspen Acres burn scar today, as showers and thunderstorms become more numerous across the area. - Showers and storms continue through much of the incoming week, though with a downtrend in coverage late week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 1236 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Showers and isolated thunderstorms still drifting across the area early this morning, with plentiful moisture and weak upward forcing continuing. Still expect most activity to end by sunrise, persisting longest over the far eastern plains where low level jet may help boost activity for a few more hours. Brief break in convection Sunday morning, before mountain storms develop again starting around 19z, with activity spreading slowly over the plains and valleys from late afternoon into the evening. Precip signal for the Aspen Acres burn scar in the 00z CAMs is not quite as impressive as it was in the 12z data, as most forcing is rather weak and subtle (se surface winds are lacking in the 00z run), though much like Saturday, plenty of moisture and convection is in place, with very hard to predict outflow collisions/interactions driving convection. Will keep Flash Flood Watch up for the burn scar this afternoon and evening, as rainfall amounts of over 1.5 inches fell between Beulah and Pueblo in less than an hr on Saturday, just missing the scar. Expect max temps today to cool just a few degf over mountains, as mid level heights fall slightly, while plains readings stay relatively unchanged. On Monday, very little change in the pattern, with another round of afternoon and evening convection across the area. Will wait on another flash flood watch for the Aspen Acres burn scar to see how Sunday's convection and low level environment evolve, but may need another highlight as relatively stagnant weather persists. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 1236 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Upper level high pressure drifts back westward into the swrn U.S. during the week, with mid/upper level flow becoming slightly more nwly through the period. Still not much change expected Tue, with another round of afternoon/evening storms focused over the mountains, drifting onto the plains in the evening. Weak front may then drop south south through the plains late Tue into Wed, potentially enhancing convection over the eastern mountains and across the plains on Wed, as enhanced easterly upslope winds behind the front refresh low level moisture. Max temps will drift downward a few degf by Wed, as ridge shifts subtly west and moisture increases. Slow transition to drier weather starts Thu as ridge gets far enough west to cut-off deeper mid-level moisture, but still expect the usual crop of afternoon/evening storms, most numerous eastern mountains and plains. Drier and warmer weather then in store for Friday into next weekend, though we never completely flush the moisture out of the area, so at least isolated afternoon/evening convection will continue each day, especially over the mountains. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 522 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Remnant VFR cloud cover will gradually decrease this morning and still watching for the potential for some patchy MVFR stratus which is starting to develop over eastern portions of El Paso County. This is unlikely to make it into the KCOS and KPUB terminals, but will monitor trends closely. Otherwise, expect clearing skies at all three terminals with another round of thunderstorms developing over the mountains between 18-19z, and moving eastward into the TAF sites after 20-22z, earliest at KALS and later for KCOS and KPUB. Gusty outflow winds up to 40 kts, MVFR vis in RA, and VFR cigs will be possible with the stronger storms. Thunderstorms will pull east of the terminals by 02-03z with clearing skies returning late tonight. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM MDT this afternoon through this evening for COZ079-080-086. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...PETERSEN AVIATION...KT  831 FXUS61 KCAR 231130 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 730 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Lowered QPF amounts as bulk of showers through Sun are further east and less numerous, and showers Mon stay further north. - 12z TAF UPDATE...See aviation section below. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rounds of showers through Monday. Rain may be heavy at times Sunday, especially across Downeast Maine. 2) Upper level low pressure keeps the chance of showers going into midweek, especially across Northern Maine. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Rounds of showers through Monday. Rain may be heavy at times Sunday, especially across Downeast Maine. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure off of Cape Cod will move northeast this morning, passing just south of the Gulf of Maine. Given the track of the low think the best chance for pops will be north and east of the low center this morning with the bulk of the rain occurring near the New Brunswick border. PW values in far southeastern areas rising to close to 99th percentile with amounts between 1.50-2.00 inches. Any rainfall will be helpful to ongoing drought conditions given that we will be in a cloudy cool pattern for the next couple days. This will allow for rainfall to get into the soils, unlikely to help streamflows which are significantly below normal. Weak low pressure will still be back over the western Gulf of Maine and becoming absorbed by the occlusion over Quebec. Although pwats remain high over the southern and eastern half of the area have reduced pops in the afternoon with parts of the area lacking forcing and the low pressure over the gulf weaker and further to the east. Given the 160- 180% of normal PWATs (95-99th percentile) showers may produce heavy rainfall at times. Showers will be more convective during the day so uncertain where the beneficial rainfall will occur. Then throughout Sunday night, the low becomes stationary over Quebec as it rotates the moisture through the state. By Monday, the low begins to gradually move north which will decrease rain chances throughout the day. However, best chance of showers and thunderstorms will be in the northern 1/2 of the CWA closer to the vertically stacked low in Quebec. QPF totals through Monday afternoon are mainly less than 0.25 inch, with up to 0.75 inch in Washington county. Isolated spots up to 0.5 inch possible in stronger/training showers. KEY MESSAGE 2...Upper level low pressure keeps the chance of showers going into midweek, especially across Northern Maine. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure stalls over Canada, slowly meandering to the east this week. Looking at chances of rain showers in the north, on Tuesday and Wednesday. There is some instability during the afternoons, with some models hinting at 500-1,000 J/kg of CAPE, 7C/km low level lapse rates, and 30-40 kts of effective shear. PWAT values roughly 1.00-1.25", so rain showers expected to be mostly light, with higher totals possible in any convection. That being said, not anticipating severe weather. Temperatures drop Tuesday into the upper-60s to low-70s, and raise back to the 70s on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Today...Widespread IFR/LIFR across all terminals in low cigs, -SHRA, and BR. Some MVFR is persisting now around 12z at northern terminals, but expect these conditions to fall to IFR later this morning into early afternoon. E to SE winds 5-10 kts. Gusts up to 15-20 kts possible at northern terminals, highest at KFVE. Tonight...IFR/LIFR conditions persist at all terminals with low cigs, VCSH, and BR. Conditions dropping to VLIFR at KBHB late with 1/2SM FG. SE winds 5-10 kts, becoming light and variable across most terminals toward 06z. Monday-Wednesday: MVFR or lower likely at northern terminals. MVFR possible at KBGR, with VFR likely at KBHB. S winds Monday, becoming SW Tuesday. LLWS possible Monday night. W-NW winds G15-20KT possible Wednesday. Wednesday night-Thursday: VFR. Light winds overnight, becoming S/SW at 5-10 kts. && .MARINE... Winds below 10kts through Sunday night with seas between 2-4 feet through the period. Rain and patchy fog reduce visibilities at times. Slight chance of winds or seas reaching 25 kts/5 ft Monday-Tuesday. Chance for fog late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Winds from the S on Monday, becoming SW on Tuesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JMM AVIATION...TF/JS  978 FXUS62 KCHS 231131 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 731 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today and Monday. A few storms could be strong to severe. - 2) Increasing rain chances mid to late week with the potential for locally heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Today and Monday. A few storms could be strong to severe. Well after a rather active afternoon with strong storms and flash flooding, rain chances do look to decrease the next two days as the upper trough shifts just a bit east. With the main trough axis just east of the area; drier westerly to northwesterly flow should begin to work into the area tonight into tomorrow. This drier air in the mid-levels should help limit coverage of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. However, less storms does not always mean less issues. While PWAT values will be lower in the 1.7 to 1.8 inch range tomorrow, there should still be enough moisture in the low levels to support some isolated to scattered storms to develop along the afternoon seabreeze. With temperatures climbing into the low 90s across SC and mid 90s across GA and dewpoints behind the seabreeze in the 70s, instability will be quite high in the 2,000 to 2500 range behind the seabreeze. What storms that do form and cluster up to survive the drier air could get rather strong. On-top of the instability, the aforementioned drier air a loft could assist in downdraft production leading to rather efficient downdrafts. DCAPE values look to range in the 1200-1500 J/kg range behind the seabreeze, which is rather potent. With 0-6km bulk wind difference around 20-25 knots, some multicellular organization could be possible as storms slowly move towards the coast. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with the strongest storms and as a result a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather is in effect for today for most of the area. This potential is also noted in some of the machine learning guidance that is hinting at some low end threat for damaging winds. Monday: Monday looks to be a rinse and repeat of Sunday with rather similar conditions across the area. The only main difference between Monday and Sunday will be slightly richer moisture as an upper shortwave looks to pivot through the area. This shortwave will help bring PWATs back into the 1.8 to 1.9 inch range which may support increased coverage across the area and more clusters rather than isolated cells. Given the better PWATS but drier air still lingering around some wet microburst potential seems possible and would not be surprised if Monday gets a bit rowdy in the late afternoon. While overall concern the next two days for heavy rainfall is lower given the lower moisture content, storms will still be capable of heavy rainfall if they sit long enough over an area. Given several locations are rather saturated after yesterdays heavy rainfall and flooding, we will have to keep an eye on where storms develop for any potential flooding issues. KEY MESSAGE 2: Increasing rain chances mid to late week with the potential for locally heavy rainfall. By the mid part of the week, the upper trough will begin to flatten out as upper ridging over the Atlantic begins to strengthen. A series of embedded shortwaves are expected to pivot through the upper trough Wednesday through Friday in very much a repeat of the last couple of days. A subtle surface boundary will slowly make its way into the area Wednesday evening into Thursday. With deep southwesterly flow a loft, PWATS are expected to climb back into the 1.9 to 2 inch range. Between the seabreeze each afternoon, the slow moving boundary and any remnant boundaries for each days storms, there should be plenty of low level focus for scattered to widespread thunderstorms to develop each afternoon. With PWATs approaching 2 inches and slow moving storm motions, heavy rainfall could start to become an issue for some areas as rainfall totals could quickly pile up. The biggest concerns likely come Thursday and Friday as the surface boundary encroaches on the coast where it will interact each afternoon with the seabreeze rather close to the flood prone metro areas of Savannah and Charleston. We will certainly have to keep an eye on this as we go throughout the week. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...VFR conditions prevail into the afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing during the late afternoon. Storm chances look best along the coast and as a result, PROB30 groups have been added to CHS/JZI/SAV. Winds will remain light out of the southwest turning slightly more southerly during the afternoon with the passage of the seabreeze. Storms should subside by the early evening with clearing skies by midnight. Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon potentially bringing temporary restrictions to aviation. && .MARINE... Today through Friday: South to southwest winds will persist through the period. Conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels, with winds averaging 15 knots or less and seas 2 to 3 feet. Any showers or thunderstorms that move over the waters have the potential to bring higher wind gusts and frequent lightning. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: August 24: KCHS: 76/2010 KCXM: 80/1975 August 25: KCHS: 77/1982 August 28: KCHS: 77/2020 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Black/ETM  839 FXUS62 KMFL 231130 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 730 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 727 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Smoke from wildfires in the area could produce lower visibilities and unhealthy air quality over portions of the Everglades and western suburbs. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms develop again this afternoon and evening, with most of the activity developing over inland areas. An isolated marginally severe storm or two is possible. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The deep trough draped across the eastern US with low pressure centered over the Great Lakes will remain the primary synoptic feature of interest in the short term. While the axis of this trough will not reach South Florida, an upper level shortwave at the base of the trough could provide some extra forcing for ascent as it advects across the area Sunday night into Monday. However, another Saharan Air Layer (SAL) looks to advect into the area as well during this same time frame. The thickness of this SAL is expected to be much less than the previous one, but it will still impact the weather outlook through Monday. In terms of today's setup, a rinse and repeat situation from yesterday appears to be in store as low level flow remains mostly southerly with perhaps a slight southwesterly component. This will keep the focus of convection towards inland South Florida (at least to start) this afternoon before outflow boundaries interact with the sea breezes and produce some storms closer to the coastal metro areas. An isolated severe thunderstorm or two once again cannot be ruled out in the form of downburst winds that are most likely to occur with a storm formed by converging boundaries or cell mergers. Heading into Sunday night and Monday, the intrusion of the drier SAL air mass will result in both mid-level dry air presence and low- level profiles resembling an inverted-V near the surface. This results in steepened low level lapse rates and the potential for a couple of strong to severe storms to develop if an updraft or two can bust through the cap created by the dust layer. With that said, overall convective coverage is expected to be lower than without the dust since the dry air provides some inhibition to convection. The storms that do form though will have chances to become strong to severe. PWATs will still be over 1.5", so some scattered showers and storms are still likely regardless but just not as widespread as days without a SAL presence. High temperatures for today and tomorrow will continue to be in the low to mid 90s. Maximum heat index values will primarily be in the 100-105F range, but many areas will experience brief periods where indices could be up to the 105-110F range. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 For the middle to end of this coming week, surface and low level high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will begin to expand back over the region and cause winds to shift back to an easterly or east-southeast direction. This easterly to east- southeast regime will produce a pattern that is common in the summertime across South Florida with convection being driven by the sea breeze circulations and being steered towards the Gulf coast areas. At the same time, the weak SAL will dissipate by mid-week and allow for the deeper moisture to be utilized for widespread shower and thunderstorm development. Highest rain chances (60-80%) each day will be across Southwest Florida and this will last through the end of the long term period. There will be a chance for an upper level shortwave to develop and advect across the region late in the week, which could cause convection to become widespread across the entire South Florida forecast area. However, uncertainty remains high in regards to this feature. High temperatures are projected to remain in the low to mid 90s each day. Overnight lows range from the low 70s across the interior and lake regions to the upper 70s and low 80s along the coastal metros. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 727 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at all sites. Have included VCTS for all eastern locations in anticipation of storms forming along the Atlantic sea breeze during the afternoon. Guidance is showing most activity focusing a little more inland, so there is still low confidence for direct thunderstorm impacts at terminals. Meanwhile, a Gulf breeze will shift winds west at KAPF. && .MARINE... Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Light to gentle west-southwest winds are expected across the Gulf waters today and into this coming week with southeasterly winds across the Atlantic. Seas will remain at 1-2 feet or less each day across all of the local waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late each day and in the late night hours over the waters, which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Wildfire activity is being monitored across the region with the latest fire developing near Krome ave and the Miami-Dade/Broward county line. Smoke from this fire is likely to mostly disperse northwards but variable winds can result in smoke dispersing multiple ways. The main impact to watch for is lowered visibilities, particularly in the late night hours as nocturnal inversions form and can trap smoke near the surface, resulting in smog. Other than ongoing activity and the drought across the region assisting in fire risk, weather conditions are generally not suitable for increasing fire development as relative humidity values remain 50-60% at minimum and winds remain on the lighter side. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 79 92 80 / 70 20 10 10 West Kendall 92 77 92 78 / 70 20 10 0 Opa-Locka 93 79 93 79 / 70 20 10 10 Homestead 92 77 92 79 / 50 10 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 92 80 91 79 / 60 20 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 93 80 92 79 / 70 20 20 10 Pembroke Pines 93 80 92 79 / 70 20 20 10 West Palm Beach 94 78 93 78 / 60 10 30 10 Boca Raton 92 79 91 79 / 60 10 20 10 Naples 91 78 92 78 / 20 10 30 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...NMP  965 FXUS63 KLOT 231131 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 631 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous swimming conditions at unprotected beaches in Cook County and northwest Indiana today. - Next chance for showers and thunderstorms towards midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 219 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The broad upper troughing over the Great Lakes continues to shift east into the northeast CONUS this morning which is allowing a surface high to build into the region from the Upper Midwest. This surface high is expected to remain over the area through Tuesday which will result in rain-free conditions and comfortable humidity. However, the persistent north-northwest winds will keep temperatures on the seasonably cool side today and Monday with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s to locally near 60. Winds are forecast to become more southerly on Tuesday which should allow temperatures to rebound back into the 80s. Speaking of winds, north-northwesterly gusts around 20 mph are expected this afternoon with locally higher gusts possible over the open waters of Lake Michigan. Despite ongoing breezy winds (10-15 kt) over the lake, waves have been rather slow to respond with current buoy observations showing 2.0-2.5 ft waves offshore of Cook County and 3.0-3.5 ft waves offshore of northwest IN. That said, as the north-northwest winds prevail it still looks as if wave heights should continue to increase through this afternoon resulting in an increasing risk for rip currents and dangerous swimming conditions, especially at northwest IN beaches. Therefore, the current plan is to maintain the ongoing Beach Hazard Statements for Porter, Lake (IN), and Cook Counties through this evening for this threat. So if you are planning to head to the beach today be sure to check the latest surf forecast beforehand and remember to stay dry where the waves are high! Our next chance for rain is not expected until the middle of the week when the shortwave trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to pivot through the Great Lakes. Associated with the shortwave is also expected to be a cold front which will be the main driver of the anticipated shower and thunderstorm activity. The latest trend in the 00z guidance suite is for the front to begin to move into northern IL late Tuesday night with a decaying area of showers and thunderstorms along it. Given the late night arrival and the lingering mid- level dry air forecast to be overhead locally, it seems that the best coverage of any showers/storms Tuesday night will be near the IL-WI line. The front is then forecast to drift across northern IL and northwest IN on Wednesday which should allow for the redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening as diurnal destabilization occurs. While forecast soundings do show some decent MLCAPE values (around 1000-2000 J/kg) and steep mid-level lapse rates, the convergence along the frontal boundary looks to be rather meager which may limit the coverage of showers and storms on Wednesday. That said, forecast soundings also show around 25-35 kts of deep layer shear Wednesday afternoon which may allow a few storms to become strong to possibly severe. At this time our area is not outlooked for severe weather likely due to uncertainty in storm coverage and timing, but this will be a period to monitor as we get closer. The cold front is forecast to exit the area late Wednesday night into Thursday morning which looks to allow another surface high to build into the area. Though, with some uncertainty as to how fast the front will exit this could change in subsequent forecasts. Regardless, another period of dry weather shoulddevelop to close out the work week, but there is a signal for more active weather to return towards the end of the weekend into the early part of the following week. On the bright side, temperatures do look to stay seasonable through the week with daily highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s. Yack && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Dry and VFR conditions are forecast through the period with diurnal cumulus developing around 6000 ft toward mid morning. Any lingering shower activity over Lake Michigan should remain east of the area. Light and variable winds early this morning will increase and settle into a prevailing NNW direction with the occasional gust into the upper teens to around 20 kt in the afternoon. A lake breeze will attempt to drift inland toward ORD/MDW early to mid afternoon and may stall near or right over MDW. However, confidence in it reaching either of the Chicago terminals remains too low to include with this update. Winds ease and become light and variable again after sunset then return to a prevailing NW direction after daybreak Monday. Petr && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for ILZ103-ILZ104. IN...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for INZ001-INZ002. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for the IN nearshore waters. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  819 FXUS64 KMRX 231129 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 729 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 727 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Showers and storms are currently isolated and expected to dissipate shortly after midnight. - Clearing skies in the early morning hours will lead to fog in the morning hours. Fog may be dense in spots. - A cold front will move through the region by morning bringing cooler, drier conditions today and tomorrow. - Rain chances will return by Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1216 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The cold front is currently on our doorstep over Eastern Kentucky and the Cumberland Plateau on the latest analysis. Showers and storms are currently isolated but new activity is popping up in the foothills of the East Tennessee mountains. CAMs and the NBM agree that showers and storms will dissipate by 1 or 2 AM EDT. Confidence is increasing that clouds will clear out before sunrise and fog will likely be an issue this morning. The front will move through tonight bringing cooler temps and lower dew points today and tomorrow. Sunday and Monday dew points will be in the 50s and highs will be in the 80s (Chattanooga area may hit 90-91). Sunday through Tuesday will be dry with high pressure at the surface. The upper level pattern will be about the same with a deep trough on the East Coast and a ridge centered over the Rockies. The NBM has low rain chances Wednesday increasing to 40-60% chances by Thursday. The trough will be centered over the Ohio Valley again by midweek with a shortwave rotating through the pattern on Thursday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 727 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Morning satellite and TDOT camera observations indicate patchy dense fog is present over portions of the region, with dense fog located immediately next door to KTRI. Kept the tempo in for the first hour at KTRI on account of the present fog. Fog should dissipate though shortly after 13z, with VFR skies likely for the remainder of the TAF period. Light winds today, mainly either northerly or westerly in the dry post-frontal airmass. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 65 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 62 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 87 61 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 57 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...McD AVIATION...Wellington  020 FXUS63 KFSD 231132 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 632 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and a few storms are likely early this morning in south-central South Dakota, with some lingering activity possible into the afternoon. Severe weather is not expected, but locally heavy rainfall will be possible during any afternoon storm. - The next better chance for showers and storms across a wider part of the area is tonight (50-70%). Locally heavy rain and isolated severe storms are possible. - Otherwise most days through next week will see highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 415 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Forecast remains on track this morning with an area of light showers and trailing thunderstorms moving slowly east across south-central South Dakota. Instability is limited east of the Missouri River until mid-late afternoon, so anticipate general weakening as activity attempts to move east this morning. Still seeing some signals in 00Z/06Z guidance pointing to a potential for locally heavy rainfall tonight. The question is exactly where it may materialize as there has been little run to run consistency showing where a line of slow-moving/training storms may set up. Some solutions place this near to just north of the Missouri River, while others shift the risk farther south into north-central Nebraska. This leads to a lower confidence forecast for tonight, both in terms of the isolated severe risk and heavy rain potential addressed in previous discussions below. Issued at 845 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 No major changes to the forecast tonight and tomorrow. Mid to high level clouds are moving into south-central South Dakota associated with our next weak wave moving in. These clouds will continue pushing east-southeastward through the night, and the aforementioned wave will help set off some showers and weak thunderstorms starting in south-central South Dakota early tomorrow morning with this activity gradually spread east- southeastward through the day on Sunday. As it moves eastward, it will outrun any appreciable instability and become just hit or miss light showers/sprinkles as it approaches I-29. Heavy rain looks to be the main threat heading into Sunday night as the low level jet kicks up and sets off more elevated thunderstorms with the aid of an upper wave moving in from the northwest. With the potential of multiple updrafts going up around the same time, there will be plenty of competition for the strongest updraft and this will help limit a severe weather risk. However, if one or two storms can go more isolated and become a more dominant updraft, then perhaps some large hail will be possible given effective shear values around 40-45 kts. Freezing levels will be quite high though, so even if an updraft can sustain itself, hailstones will have a pretty deep warm layer to go through before it were to reach the surface. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 142 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A quiet night is ahead as high pressure drifts east. Southerly flow will develop in central SD later tonight and become more established across the area through Sunday. The light winds will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 50s, especially east of I- 29. The upper level wave responsible for the low level winds turning southerly will move into central SD tomorrow morning, and eastward and southeast from there through the day. With fairly stout low to mid level dry air, mainly an increase in cloud cover is expected through the morning. The exception will be south central SD where enough moisture may allow for 500-1000 J/kg of elevated CAPE, which will support some spotty showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather is not expected. Lift will gradually increase through the day into Sunday night, when a moderately stronger LLJ focuses on the area. Given fairly weak shear and CAPE values generally under 1000 J/kg, severe weather looks unlikely. However with a freezing level around 13 kft, locally heavy rain will be possible. Not much agreement on the location of the heavier rain with the models pretty inconsistently placing the mid level wave across the area. Some hints that the LLJ will focus somewhere on the SD side, but confidence is low. This wave moves out of the area on Monday but another weaker wave moves by to the north on Monday night and brings a small increase in warm air advection, which could spark a few showers and thunderstorms. Mainly northwest flow aloft continues Tuesday into next weekend. This will bring periodic small chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the week with little agreement on exactly when. Otherwise lows should mainly be from the mid 50s to mid 60s with highs in the 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 632 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions should be prevalent across the forecast area through today with a possible exception of occasional MVFR visibility in rain/isolated thunderstorms toward south-central South Dakota. Growing chances for showers and storms moves east after sunset, potentially impacting TAF sites after 24/04Z-06Z. This could bring a brief period of MVFR visibility, though confidence in timing is on the low side so will stick with PROB30 for now. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JH/Samet DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...JH  047 FXUS64 KMEG 231132 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 632 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 632 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Near to slightly above-normal temperatures are expected across the Mid-South for most of the upcoming week. - Rain-free weather conditions are expected today, but shower and thunderstorm chances remain elevated Monday through Wednesday, as the main storm track extends from the central Great Plains to the Mid-South. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A fairly static upper level pattern will prevail over the CONUS through late week. A large upper level height ridge will be the pattern's most prominent feature, centered near the 4-corners region, to near west TX. The Midsouth will remain near the storm track along the ridge's northeastern periphery. Our thunderstorm chances will be modulated by northern branch shortwaves, tracking southeast from the central and northern Great Plains. While the overall pattern remains static, a brief amplification will occur early in the week, aided by height falls from the Great Lakes into the southern Appalachians. This amplification will coincide with a westward shift of the storm track into the Ozarks on Monday. Concurrently a weak backdoor cold front will bring lower humidity and modest heat relief to the Midsouth. This relief will be short-lived, as western upper ridge expands eastward Monday night, returning storm chances to the Midsouth.This pattern will vary little from Tuesday through Thursday, with highs returning to the low and middle 90s, accompanied by dewpoints in the lower 70s. This combination should keep daytime heat indices just below Heat Advisory criteria, especially where thunderstorms occur. Medium range guidance consensus depicts some deamplification of the upper pattern late in the week, resulting in a transition to more zonal flow aloft. While rain chances edge downward, above normal temperatures will continue. GEFS and ECMWF ensemble-based guidance depict a more eastward expansion of the upper ridge next weekend, resulting in daytime high temperatures warming to the upper 90s by next Sunday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Generally rain-free conditions are expected through the TAF period. However, there is a low potential (20%) for a few showers at JBR/MEM after 06z tonight as a mid-level cloud deck moves into the area. However, most of this precipitation will likely evaporate before reaching the surface. Prevailing VFR will continue aside from patchy sunrise fog at MKL this morning and again Monday morning. Expect north winds, increasing to 6-9 kts during the daytime hours, decreasing after sunset. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Minimum relative humidity will average 35 to 45 percent on Sunday. Despite the passage of a weak cold front on Monday, humidity will increase slightly. Wetting rainfall chances will return Monday night, with episodes of thunderstorms possible through early Thursday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...MJ  098 FXUS61 KALY 231134 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 734 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across eastern NY and western New England today. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated severe thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon, with damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy downpours the primary hazards. 2) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday and Tuesday, especially near and north of I-90. 3) Chances of showers and thunderstorms return late next week as temperatures trend warmer. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Latest water vapor imagery shows our parent trough centered just north of the Great Lakes with a secondary shortwave rounding the base through the Ohio Valley. An area of rain and thunderstorms continues to push through PA early this morning ahead of the occluded boundary within a region of diffluent flow downstream of the trough. However, high res and deterministic guidance is in good agreement showing these showers/storms continuing to weaken as they advance north and eastward through sunrise as they outrun the best forcing for ascent. While a few isolated showers develop ahead of the occluded front before sunrise, the weakening area of showers/embedded storms should reach eastern NY and western New England 09 - 15 UTC this morning. The occluded boundary essentially stalls over eastern NY today with the secondary shortwave from the Ohio Valley continuing to rotate into the Northeast, reaching eastern NY by early afternoon. As stronger height falls arrive, expecting scattered clusters of showers/storms to redevelop and track from west to east. Forecast soundings and moisture profiles also show dry air surges into eastern NY/western New England this afternoon as this stronger shortwave arrives. This will help steepen mid- level lapse rates over 6C/km with DCAPE values also rising over 1000 J/kg. The incoming dry air should also help morning stratus break for sun with dew points in the mid to upper 60s supporting sfc-based instability increasing towards 1000 - 1500 J/kg per the REFS and CAMs. Given the incoming closed low, 0-6km shear impressively reaches 40-50kts and 0-3km shear 25-30kts. Despite these favorable ingredients for severe weather, clouds look to break for sun just as the stronger height falls arrive, limiting the time for the atmosphere to destabilize before convective initiates. In addition, low-level forcing is limited to a weakening warm front lifting northward along a washout occluded front. These help explain why the HREF and REFS both only show low probabilities for updraft helicity values exceeding 20m/s mainly 20 - 00 UTC. This indicates that even as isolated to scattered storm clusters initiate mid to late afternoon into the early evening hours, there should only be isolated instances of severe thunderstorms. Given weak updraft growth, there are also questions if any storms can tap into the stronger shear aloft. This matches with SPC's marginal risk (level 1 of 5) in their Day 1 Convective Outlook. Damaging winds remain the primary hazard from any severe storms that form but any storm can also produce frequent lightning as forecast soundings show sufficient instability extending into the favored -10C to -30C region likely due to the cool/dry air tracking in aloft. Storms can also produce heavy downpours given PWATs over 1". Convection dissipates by 0 - 02 UTC with clouds clearing quickly thereafter, supporting radiational fog overnight where heavy rain fell. KEY MESSAGE 2... Our mature closed low slowly propagates into southern Quebec by Monday with its cool pool extending into eastern NY and western New England. Southwest flow aloft will maintain elevated dew points in the mid 50s to low 60s with the 500hPa -15C to -18C cool pool aloft supporting steeper mid-level lapse rates 6 - 6.5C/km with morning sun contributing to SB-CAPE values reaching 500 - 1000 J/kg. As a stronger shortwave rotates around the base of the closed low late Monday morning into the afternoon, stronger forcing for ascent should support a more organized area of rain and even embedded thunderstorms tracking west to east. Given the cool pool, storms will not need to become too tall before lightning develops with any taller updrafts capable of small hail. However, forecast soundings shows low EL heights indicating low-topped convection and thus limiting severe weather potential. Winds shift westerly by Monday evening in the wake of the shortwave with cool air advection over the still warm lakes supporting a lake effect and upslope rain response. Therefore, we continue to show likely and categorical POPs in the western Adirondacks with chance POPs in the southern Greens and Mohawk Valley. Westerly flow and the trough axis/cool pool under our very slow moving closed low should maintain at least scattered showers during the day on Tuesday favored near and north of I-90. The western Adirondacks and southern Greens will likely receive the highest rainfall amounts. Instability wanes by Tuesday so any storms should be isolated. KEY MESSAGE 3... High pressure builds back overhead by Wednesday supporting pleasant and dry conditions. However, the dry break does not last long as yet another shortwave trough approaches the Northeast Thursday into Friday. Southwest flow ahead of it will allow humidity levels to rise once again with temperatures trending slightly above normal. Heights fall in response to the approaching trough and eventual cold front looks to support increased chances for showers and thunderstorms both days. However, there remains uncertainties in timing and coverage of shower/storms as there are discrepancies on the strengthen of the incoming cold front and placement of the parent trough in southern Canada. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 12z Monday...MVFR conditions prevail across all terminals this morning as an initial batch of showers begins to spread into the area. Brief lowering to IFR conditions could result with these showers mainly at KPSF, though upstream obs and forecast soundings don't allude anything past a lower MVFR ceiling and visibility at other sites. TEMPO groups have been added for the next couple of hours to accommodate these anticipated conditions. A break in precipitation comes in a couple of hours before additional scattered convection is expected this afternoon. While it is still difficult to pin down exactly where and when showers and thunderstorms will occur, latest guidance was fairly consistent with the previously issued PROB30 groups. Therefore, maintained the greatest probability of showers and thunderstorms between 21-01z. ALB may have some lingering showers from 16-19z, but confidence is low in this aspect of the forecast. Additionally, we maintained low MVFR conditions with thunderstorms in the aforementioned PROB30s to convey uncertainty not just in the timing and location, but limited confidence in obtaining IFR conditions. Once showers and thunderstorms conclude this evening, a swift return to VFR will occur with rapid improvements to visibility and ceiling height. By late this evening/early tomorrow morning, skies should clear, leading to potential fog formation at all sites by the end of the period. Winds will prevail out of the southeast to start the period this morning, with sustained speeds below 10 kt. Winds will pick up a bit by this afternoon to around 10 kt before shifting to the southwestto northwest this evening. Winds overnight will then be light to calm. Outlook... Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...31 AVIATION...12  103 FXUS63 KEAX 231134 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 634 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and slightly less humid today. - Showers and thunderstorms possible to likely late tonight into Monday morning. Locally moderate to heavy rainfall may be possible. - Warmer temperatures (but seasonal) expected to return Tuesday and continue through the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 329 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Northwesterly flow aloft remains entrenched over the region between high amplitude ridging across the Rockies and western CONUS and troughing across the Great Lakes and into Appalachia. At the surface, high pressure remains in place over the region, yielding nearly calm winds with some high clouds streaming north to south overhead. All in all a very pleasant late August day is expected today, with afternoon high temperatures only forecast to reach the lower 80s for most locations. More importantly, good mixing into a dry airmass should allow for dew points to drop to the upper 50s to lower 60s this afternoon, making for quite comfortable humidity levels. Quite a bit of mid to high level cloud cover is likely to move in by late this morning, with some isolated elevated showers possible by this afternoon across eastern KS into far western MO. However, with relatively dry low levels, quite a bit of evaporation is likely. As we head into tonight, a shortwave trough is progged to translate across the Dakotas into Iowa along the northeastern periphery of the upper ridge. Meanwhile, a southeasterly oriented low level jet will develop late tonight into early Monday morning. This will usher in moisture return, with PWATs increasing significantly from this afternoon into late tonight, primarily across eastern KS into western MO. These features should also help generate showers and thunderstorms across the region late tonight into Monday morning, however, CAMs differ considerably with respect to the exact evolution and intensity of these showers and storms. The 06z HRRR is the least excited about any flash flood potential, with total accumulations generally less than half an inch. However, the 06z NAM Nest suggests the potential for pockets of 1-2 (and perhaps more) inches, although the NAM Nest PWATs are significantly higher than other models and seem a bit unrealistic. The 06z RRFS is somewhere between the HRRR and the NAM Nest. All that to say that there does seem to be at least some low end potential for locally moderate to heavy rainfall late tonight into Monday morning, and WPC has maintained the marginal risk for excessive rainfall across eastern KS into far western MO. Convection should dissipate/exit south of the CWA by late Monday morning, with dry conditions expected for the remainder of the day and afternoon high temperatures ranging from the lower 80s across northern MO to the mid 80s elsewhere. As we head into Tuesday and the rest of the week, the western ridge should remain in place, with northwesterly flow aloft continuing over the CWA as troughing remains over Ontario/Quebec and into the NE CONUS. This will result in afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s through the week and occasional low end (20 to 30%) chances for showers/storms as disturbances and vort maxes translate through the northwesterly flow on the northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 627 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Currently VFR at all terminals under some passing high level clouds with light and variable winds. High level clouds will increase in coverage by a bit later this morning, but VFR conditions are expected through the period. Isolated to scattered showers and perhaps some thunderstorms may develop overnight tonight into early Monday morning, so have introduced a PROB30 for -SHRA to handle this. Winds should remain light (6 knots or less) and variable through the period. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMW AVIATION...BMW  089 FXUS64 KHUN 231133 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 633 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 354 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - There are low to medium chances of thunderstorms for much of next week. However, timing and impact confidence remains low at this time. && .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 354 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Northwest flow aloft of 25-35 knots this morning will gradually subside over the course of the day as a northern stream trough (over OT) phases with a smaller disturbance to its south to form a partially cutoff low over the eastern Great Lakes. At the surface, a large ridge of high pressure (centered over southern MB and adjacent portions of OT) will shift slowly eastward as this occurs, with its influence expected to extend as far southeastward as the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. A weak cold front (marking the leading edge of the drier/continental airmass) will continue to advance southward across the local CWFA early this morning, and although it would not be out of the realm of possibility to see a light shower develop near the wind shift axis, most locations will remain dry. Redevelopment of thunderstorms this afternoon (in the vicinity of the boundary layer moisture gradient) should occur across central/southern portions of the Gulf Coast states, and for this reason we will retain a dry and mostly sunny forecast for our region. After morning lows in the 65-70F range, afternoon highs will be a few degrees cooler (85-90F), which will feel even more pleasant as dewpoints mix down into the u50s-l60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Sunday will be a sunny and less humid day as high pressure expands into the OH and TN valleys from the upper Midwest. Highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90 with dew points falling into the lower to middle 60s. Northwesterly flow at 5h will bring a series of weak disturbances southeast Sunday night into Tuesday. A pronounced low to mid level theta-E gradient and convergence zone will lie from MO through northeast AR into northern MS into western AL during this time, keeping our are susceptible to at least low chances of showers or thunderstorms. These would be higher based/elevated in nature. The chances will be greatest (30-50%) on Tuesday. Highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90 with lows mainly in the 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 We will continue to be in a northwest flow regime aloft for most of the long term period. However, by Saturday, this pattern begins to break down as the upper trough to the north/northeast flattens and the upper ridge over the Desert Southwest flattens as well and pushes farther east into the ArkLaTex. A lingering surface boundary will also persist over the Southeast into Thursday before what looks like a reinforcing cold front swings through. By late week and into the first part of next weekend high pressure builds over the Appalachians and Ohio Valley. Overall, highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s will be common through the period. In addition, the above pattern will lead to daily chances of showers and storms from Tuesday through Thursday at least. Expecting lower chances come Friday/Saturday. The best chances look to be during the afternoon and evening hours, during peak heating when storms can take advantage of the greater thermodynamics in place. Ample instability in addition to bulk shear between 20-30 knots, 0-3km lapse rates between 7-8 deg C/km, along with DCAPE around or above 1000 J/kg, will warrant us keeping an eye on the forecast for at least strong to severe downburst potentialWednesday and Thursday. As has been the case recently, the main hazards are likely to be damaging winds, frequent lightning, and perhaps some hail (but freezing levels may be too high). As for heavy rain and flooding concerns, this will need to be monitored as well, since most PWATS are generally between 1.7-2.0 inches Tuesday through Thursday. These values are between the 75th and 90th percentiles when compared to BMX Sounding Climatology, which means that showers and storms will be efficient rainfall producers. Stay weather aware especially if you work outside or have outdoor activities and check back for forecast updates! && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 There have been no major changes to previous aviation forecast reasoning, as mid-level clouds should rapidly disperse after 12Z, with only a few fair-weather Cu and few Ci expected during the day. The coverage of high-lvl clouds in NW flow aloft will begin to increase this evening, perhaps becoming overcast and capable of generating some virga or lgt SHRA (especially across northwest AL) by the end of the TAF period. Sfc winds will range from 340-020 at 5-10 kts today, but should veer to NE and diminish after sunset this evening. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...70/DD SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM...17 AVIATION...70/DD  194 FXUS61 KCLE 231137 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 737 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...12z TAF Aviation Forecast Update... .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the upcoming forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cooler weather with occasional lake effect rain showers across parts of Northeast OH and Northwest PA into early this week. Locally heavy rainfall is possible, mainly this evening. Elsewhere, scattered showers are possible this afternoon and evening before a prolonged period of drier weather arrives. 2 Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Wednesday night through Thursday night. Currently, the potential for severe weather and/or heavy rainfall appears minimal. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Surface low pressure across southern Ontario and an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes are expected to become closed off and more vertically stacked while drifting east through tonight. The system will begin to gradually weaken starting on Monday while only slowly exiting through southeast Canada and New England. High pressure will gradually build into the Ohio Valley and eventually across the local area early this week, though lingering influence from the departing closed low won't totally exit our northeastern counties until Tuesday. The primary weather impact from the departing system will be lake effect/enhanced rain showers occasionally streaming off of Lake Erie into parts of Northeast OH and Northwest PA. Lake water temperatures are near 25C on average, so as 850mb temperatures bottom out at 6-8C late today and tonight, with 700mb temperatures dipping to just below 0C and 500mb temperatures bottoming out around -20C, impressive and deep instability will be in place over the late summer lake waters. Flow will generally waiver between the west and northwest through early Tuesday before shifting more firmly offshore. We are seeing a flareup of lake effect showers and a few storms during the pre-dawn hours this Sunday morning as an initial vort max and surface trough axis works across the region. There will likely be a lull for several hours later this morning into this afternoon, before another impressive vort max and surface trough cross the lake the first half of tonight. This is expected to bring another, likely more widespread, flareup of lake effect showers and thunderstorms. Lake effect activity is possible as far west as the Islands and Sandusky through early tonight. Thereafter, activity will continue mainly from near the Cleveland metro points east-northeast (and will be most organized across Northwest PA) Monday into early Tuesday, though will likely shut-off farther west of Cleveland as high pressure gradually builds from the west-southwest. Lake effect is not expected to be as intense/organized (and will have decreasing thunder potential) starting late tonight, and may completely stop at times. However, coverage/intensity may briefly increase Monday morning, Monday evening, and perhaps early Tuesday as additional spokes of mid-level energy and surface troughs rotate around the backside of our departing closed low. After this morning's flareup, the main concern for organized activity that could produce locally heavy rain downwind of Lake Erie in short order is the first half of tonight. Rain amounts will need to be monitored for localized flooding potential if any more stationary bands of lake effect play out, especially over areas that saw heavy rain on Saturday. Lower overall confidence in impactful flooding and a likely limited potential areal scope of any flooding that occurs precludes a Flood Watch at this time. Some storms coming off the lake may produce small hail through early tonight, with the potential for gusty winds with any storms coming off the lake this evening as well. QPF amounts from the eastern Cleveland suburbs and across the core "snowbelt" of far Northeast OH and Northwest PA generally range from 0.50-2.00", which is manageable on its own, though given the very convective nature amounts will vary more than shown in the forecast and can locally end up in the 2-4" range. That would be where an isolated flooding concern can develop. Across the rest of the area a good scattered of showers is likely late this afternoon and evening as the vort max and surface trough work through. Otherwise, a drying trend is favored into the first half of the week as high pressure builds. Highs will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s today and Monday, coolest across Northeast OH and Northwest PA (the hills of PA may be stuck in the low-mid 60s most of Monday), with overnight lows largely in the 50s the next few nights. A few outlying areas may get into the 40s Monday night where skies clear. A gradual warming trend begins on Tuesday. KEY MESSAGE 2.. The next upper trough digs into the Great Lakes Wednesday and Thursday, with weak low pressure tracking well to our north and pulling a cold front through the local area likely on Thursday. This does not look like a very dynamic system, but will bring the next potential for scattered showers and storms. The greatest potential for rain appears to be late Wednesday night into Thursday. Given weaker dynamics and amounts of instability and moisture that appear modest, the risk for severe weather and/or heavy rain with this system is currently minimal. && .AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... The main weather message for aviation over the next 24 hours will be impacts from lake effect clouds and lake enhanced rain showers with isolated thunder possible for TAF sites in NEOH and NWPA closer to the lakeshore. Clouds will increase with mostly broken to overcast ceilings between 3500 and 5000 feet downwind of Lake Erie. The variable low end VFR to MVFR conditions will impact sites like CLE, YNG, CAK, and ERI today through early Monday morning. Scattered rain showers with isolated thunder possible will also impact those favored lake effect TAF sites today through tonight. We tried to highlight the time periods when MVFR ceilings and visibility reductions 3sm to 5sm from passing showers/storm may impact those specific airports later today and this evening. Otherwise across NWOH and central Ohio will stay mostly with VFR ceilings and conditions today through 12z Monday. Winds will be westerly to northwesterly increasing 10 to 15 knots later this morning through the evening. Gusts up to 25 knots possible today, especially closer to the lakeshore. The gusty winds will relax to 10 knots or less by during the overnight before winds becoming gusty again after 12z Monday. Outlook...Non-VFR conditions will be likely through Monday afternoon with lake effect clouds and lake enhanced rain showers with isolated thunder possible for NEOH and NWPA. VFR conditions will return Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure builds across the region. && .MARINE... Rough marine conditions are expected on Lake Erie today through Monday with gusty northwest winds and higher waves as well as the risk for rip currents along the beaches/lakeshore. West to Northwest winds will be between 15 and 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots today through Monday afternoon. Waves will increase 3 to 8 feet today through Monday. Waterspouts will be very possible on Lake Erie today through Monday as well. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazard Statements for rip currents have been issued through Monday afternoon and evening. High pressure will slowly build in Monday night into Tuesday with conditions on Lake Erie improving. By Tuesday, winds will be westerly to southwesterly 5 to 15 knots and waves decreasing to 1 to 2 feet. The southerly winds will linger into Wednesday 5 to 12 knots and waves of 1 to 2 feet as well. The next weather system to possibly impact marine weather will be a cold front moving through the Great Lakes region by Thursday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday afternoon for OHZ009- 010. Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for OHZ011-012- 089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LEZ144-145. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for LEZ146>149. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sullivan AVIATION...77 MARINE...77  160 FXUS64 KJAN 231136 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 636 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous heat stress is expected across portions of the forecast area over the next several days. - Isolated to scattered severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible today across far southern portions of the area, expanding into central areas as well by Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Today into Monday... Persistent hot/humid conditions will continue today. Dangerous heat conditions are expected with greatest heat stress over the southwestern half of the area where heat indices reaching 110 degrees are expected. A heat advisory remains in effect for those areas concurrent with an "Elevated" (2/4) delineation on graphical hazardous weather outlook products. A weak frontal boundary will push southward, briefly "cooling" temps to the lower 90s with heat indices near 105 becoming mostly confined to the southwestern third of the area by Monday where a "Limited" (1/4) area is depicted for that heat risk. Showers and storms will be mostly confined to southern portions of the area today with strong to marginally severe storms depicted by a "Marginal" (1/5) outlook near the highway 84 corridor. These storms will peak in intensity during the afternoon into evening when heating is maximized. The risk area will expand on Monday to include areas as far north as the I-20 corridor as storms once again peak in intensity during the afternoon and evening. Shear remains weak due to seasonably weak upper level winds and extensive summer ridging. With summertime thermal profiles prevailing, this will result in a generally high freezing level and warm/hot boundary layer temperatures. For these reasons, the primary hazards each day will be damaging wind gusts to around 60 mph, primarily associated with wet-microburst processes. Tuesday through Saturday: The upper high responsible for the ongoing heatwave does begin to retrograde as we head into next week, but at the same time upper troughing to the northeast of the area begins to weaken which results in 500 mb heights remaining roughly unchanged in the 590-591 DAM range. This does, however, result in mid and upper velocities dropping a small amount (e.g. 5-10 kts @ 500 mb). While small, the already meager shear/deep flow may somewhat alleviate the risk for the near daily strong to severe storms with damaging winds that we have been seeing over the last several days. Heat and humidity will be on the rebound in this more stagnant pattern and continued elevated upper height anomalies as heat indices likely once again threatening the 110 degree mark in some places. Heat headlines and advisories will likely be needed as the week progress. /SW/86/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Winds will generally be light and northerly. Isolated SHRA/TSRA will be possible but limited coverage precludes inclusion in the TAF. /86/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 98 73 92 73 / 10 0 30 30 Meridian 97 73 92 72 / 20 10 40 20 Vicksburg 96 74 92 73 / 20 0 30 20 Hattiesburg 99 74 95 73 / 20 10 60 20 Natchez 98 75 96 75 / 20 10 20 10 Greenville 97 73 91 72 / 10 10 30 40 Greenwood 95 72 89 71 / 0 10 30 40 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>066-072>074. LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026. AR...Heat Advisoryfrom 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. && $$ LP/LP/LP  146 FXUS65 KVEF 231135 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 435 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Above normal temperatures continue through next week. * Isolated storm chances linger into early next week, with best chances in northwestern Arizona and the southern Great Basin. && .DISCUSSION...Through Saturday. With a fairly persistent pattern expected, temperatures remain above normal through the forecast period. Ensemble guidance keeps the 500mb ridge anchored in southern NM and southeastern AZ, leaving us under south-southwest flow aloft. A subtle cooldown is expected Monday-Tuesday as moisture increases in our southeastern areas, but excessive heat quickly returns by mid-week and sticks around. Elevated low temperatures will offer little-to-no overnight relief, especially in the Mojave Desert. Major to extreme heatrisk is forecast to return to these areas during the second half of the week. The aforementioned south-southwest flow is just southerly enough to let moisture linger but southwesterly enough to keep it limited. These conditions should favor isolated afternoon convection, primarily in northwestern AZ and the southern Great Basin where odds are 10-30%. Main concerns with this activity are gusty outflow winds and dry lightning, though brief heavy downpours are possible. An influx of moisture on Monday may result in an uptick in coverage along/southeast of I-15, but models still disagree on the northwestward extent and magnitude of this influx. During the second half of the week, the flow acquires a greater westerly component, allowing moisture and precipitation chances to subside. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Winds will become variable early this morning, with a brief southeasterly shift mid- to late morning as winds increase to 8-10KT. Through early afternoon, winds veer to the southwest, increasing to 10-15KT with gusts to 20-25KT expected through sunset. Gusts diminish thereafter, with winds remaining southerly to southwesterly through the end of the period. VFR conditions will continue with no operationally significant cloud cover expected. Temperatures will exceed 100 degrees from 18Z-03Z, reaching a high of 109 degrees this afternoon. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Somewhat variable winds around 5-10KT this morning will veer to the south-southwest by early afternoon and become gusty, with gusts t0 20-25KT common. Gusts will diminish after sunset, with winds becoming lighter and settling out of typical patterns overnight. An exception to this will be the western Mojave Desert/KDAG, where winds will become light and variable late morning, with gusty southwesterly winds to 25-30KT returning late afternoon into tonight. Additionally, the northern Owens Valley/KBIH will follow typical daily patterns, with gusty up-valley winds developing this afternoon before veering to the north through the evening. Isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, mainly over the higher terrain of the southern Great Basin and northwestern Arizona, with gusty outflow winds and lightning strikes the main concerns. Confidence in direct impacts at area terminals is low at this time. VFR conditions prevail with FEW-SCT clouds at or above 10kft. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Woods AVIATION...Phillipson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  249 FXUS64 KLCH 231139 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 639 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect again today from 11 AM until 8 PM. Afternoon highs will again climb to near 100 degrees with maximum apparent temperatures ranging from 109 to 115. - Temperatures will remain above normal through Tuesday before returning nearer to normal through the second half of the week. - A few afternoon thunderstorms are expected each day, but the majority of the region will remain dry through Wednesday. Precipitation chances will increase Thursday into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 After breaking daily high temperature records Saturday afternoon at both the Lake Charles and Beaumont airports, dewpoints in the upper 70s to 80 are keeping apparent temperatures even at midnight in the mid 90s to near 100. It does make one wonder how the pre electrical world managed to subsist in the gulf south in August. Little change in the synoptic forecast pattern is expected today or Monday as a broad upper level ridge continues to dominate the south central U.S. keeping both high and low temperatures above normal even by mid August standards. No changes were made to the previously issued heat advisory which will again be in effect today from 11 AM until 8 PM. Forecast maximum heat indices are expected to range from 109-115 posing a health risk to anyone unable to find sufficient sources of cooling. Short range guidance is in good agreement on the combination of heat related instability and a developing afternoon sea breeze producing a few (20-30%) thunderstorms this afternoon and those lucky enough to find themselves underneath one will get a brief reprieve from both the heat as well as the expanding drought across the region. Any storms that develop will dissipate around sunset. Increasing mid level moisture will wrap around the eastern periphery of the ridge Monday through Wednesday offering better (30- 50%) precipitation chances for those along and east of the Atchafalaya basin. The remainder of the region will continue to broil in the Cajun sauna with heat advisories likely needed each afternoon. The persistent upper level ridge will retrograde west into the four corners region by Thursday allowing deeper upper level moisture to sink into the area along a weak boundary. This is expected to substantially increase (30-70%) precipitation chances across the region while, concordantly, dropping afternoon highs back to "only" the low to mid 90s. Jones && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 With exception to some patchy morning fog, VFR conditions ongoing this morning. Fog will burn off shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, we could see a few diurnal showers and storms later this afternoon and into this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Light onshore winds will persist through the week with seas ranging from 1-2 feet. Precipitation chances return across the coastal waters Thursday into next weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A few afternoon thunderstorms will develop each day through Wednesday with the highest probabilities in and around the Atchafalaya basin. Better precipitation chances are expected area wide Thursday through next weekend. KBDI values presently range from 530 to 750 across the region and will continue climbing as drought conditions worsen over the next couple of weeks. Daily minimum relative humidity will range from 40-50% away from the immediate coastline through the middle of the week. Personal outdoor burning is strongly discouraged. Burn bans have been issued for most parishes and counties by local governments. Consult your local fire departments for more information. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243- 252>254. TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66 AVIATION...87  219 FXUS65 KBOU 231138 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 538 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms through Thursday. A risk of a couple severe storms each day. - A few severe storms are expected across the plains again today, with isolated severe winds and hail possible. Best chances should stay east of the urban corridor. - Slightly cooler (but still above) normal temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday. - Gradual drying and hotter temperatures by the end of the week and through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/... Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Showers have persisted through the night across the eastern plains after yesterday's severe storms lasted well into the evening. These should continue to move eastward and completely out of our forecast area right around sunrise this morning. Today is looking to bring similar conditions to what we saw yesterday, with scattered afternoon showers expected to develop across the higher elevations and push eastward across the plains where better low- level moisture and instability will reside. For today, however, the better environment for severe potential is expected to move a little eastward from yesterday, with a slightly lower concern for the urban corridor today. There will still be a nonzero chance for some strong to severe winds, however, as DCAPE is expected to range from 1200-1500 J/kg that will support an elevated wind threat. PWAT values remain elevated today as well (ranging from .8 to 1.5 inches across the lower elevations), that will keep the potential for some localized heavy rainfall with the stronger storms. MLCAPE is expected to be greatest generally east of Denver International Airport, with upwards of 1500-2500 J/kg portrayed in forecast soundings. Shear will remain the limiting factor for more organized convection today, but 0-6 km bulk shear should get up to 30-35 kts, which will be enough to see a few more organized cells. Temperatures are expected to warm into the low to mid 90s before storms start and bring some heat relief. It will be a wash, rinse, and repeat forecast through at least Tuesday, with scattered afternoon showers and storms containing an isolated severe threat. The pattern doesn't change significantly outside of the upper-level ridge flattening out as a shortwave treks across the northern Rockies today and Monday. Temperatures will cool slightly on Tuesday and Wednesday before the ridge rebuilds across the Rockies, and warmer and drier conditions gradually work their way back for next weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday/... Issued at 521 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 We should see drainage winds turn clockwise through the morning, becoming NE for the afternoon before showers and storm chances will increase by 20-22Z. However, there is a chance that we just end up with a few hours of light and variable winds ahead of storms between 17Z-20Z. While there is a TEMPO in place for thunderstorms in the TAFs, there is a more likely chance that the airports are impacted by gusty outflows with shifting winds (30-40 kts), with storm chances remaining around 30-40%. The best timing for impacts is expected to be from 21-24Z, a PROB30 is in place until 2Z as there may be some lingering showers and outflows around the TAF sites that will likely delay the onset of drainage winds. Ceiling heights should remain about the same as Saturday, with broken ceilings expected to move in ahead of storms as they move off the mountains, dropping to ~8,000-9,000 feet AGL at their lowest. Drainage winds are expected to settle in behind outgoing showers/storms/outflows sometime between 2-4Z. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...9 AVIATION...9  218 FXUS66 KMTR 231138 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 438 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1204 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages persist within the marine layer through the next week - Warm and dry conditions continue above 1000 feet && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1204 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 (Today and tonight) Another day of the weather pattern dominated by the balance between the ridge over the Desert Southwest and the troughing over the Eastern Pacific. Today, a cutoff low moving across the Pacific Northwest is allowing the ridging to have a little more impact over central California, resulting in a compressed marine layer and a slight uptick in temperatures across the interior. Some coastal stratus development is still possible through the overnight hours, and any stratus that does form will dissipate rather early in the post-sunrise hours. High temperatures today range in the middle 80s to the middle 90s across the interior, the upper 90s into the triple digits in the warmest interior spots (especially southern Monterey County), the 70s and lower 80s near the Bays, and the lower to middle 60s along the Pacific coast. Breezy onshore winds are expected in the afternoon and evening along the coast and through favored gaps and passes. Regarding conditions near the Timber Fire, the compressed marine layer will lead to warm and dry conditions in the higher elevations where the fire continues to actively burn. Light northeast winds in the morning will shift to a southwest flow in the afternoon and evening hours. Smoke transport will be inhibited by the marine layer inversion into the morning, resulting in the potential for reduced visibilities in the immediate area, while winds aloft will transport smoke northeastward towards Salinas and Hollister. For air quality information, refer to products issued by the Monterey Bay Air Resources District. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1204 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 (Monday through Saturday) The pattern remains relatively stable through the rest of the forecast period. A developing low in the eastern Pacific will allow more of the troughing influence to arrive on Monday, causing temperatures to dip by around 3-6 degrees in the inland valleys (around the lower 80s to the lower 90s), before temperatures rebound on Tuesday and Wednesday due to the ridging reasserting itself, and remain remarkably close to today's forecast through the end of the 7- day outlook. The breezy afternoon and evening winds will continue to develop for coastal areas and through favored gaps and passes. Ensemble models and our colleagues at the National Hurricane Center continue to suggest the possibility for a couple of tropical systems to develop off the coast of Mexico through the next week. One such system could very well develop today. It's too early to say what the impacts of the system could be to the region, ranging from impacts to the large-scale pattern to the potential for tropical moisture flow towards our region. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 433 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Currently a mixed bag of LIFR-VFR. Warmer and drier conditions are inhibiting stratus formation this morning and high clouds streaming in from the southwest are not helping. As a result, confidence is decreasing in the widespread return of IFR/MVFR stratus this morning. OAK, SFO, and STS have been reduced to TEMPO groups for IFR stratus through 16Z with APC, LVK, and SJC likely remaining VFR. Coastal terminals of HAF, MRY, and SNS can expect ceilings on the cusp of LIFR/IFR. Due to the patchy nature of stratus, VFR will likely be achieved earlier than normal. Diurnal winds will prevail. A more normal stratus intrusion is expected tonight, leading to moderate confidence in ceilings (likely on the cusp of IFR/MVFR) returning to most terminals. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. Confidence continues to decrease on a ceiling developing at the terminal this morning with the camera showing stratus holding to the northwest. If it is able to develop, it'll likely be on the cusp of IFR/MVFR. Diurnal winds will prevail. Higher confidence on a ceiling on the cusp of IFR/MVFR returning tonight. SFO Bridge Approach...The San Mateo Bridge Approach will likely stay VFR longer than the terminal this morning with patchy stratus along the East Bay Hills. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently LIFR with southwesterly flow at MRY and VFR and calm at SNS. SNS is expected to get a ceiling on the cusp of IFR/LIFR. VFR is expected by late-morning with an early return of IFR stratus this evening. Diurnal winds will prevail. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 433 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes will keep hazardous conditions for small craft in the outer waters through this morning. Northwesterly breezes will diminish this afternoon with hazardous conditions for small craft remaining confined to the northern outer waters through Monday morning. Slight to moderate seas will prevail. Reduced visibility is expected along the Big Sur Coast from the Timber Fire. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  311 FXUS64 KHGX 231140 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 640 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory remains in effect. Hot conditions will persist through at least mid-week. - Cannot rule out a rouge shower or thunderstorm at times into midweek, but chances will be quite low. - Temperatures VERY slightly ease late in the week along with the potential for some isolated rain chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The oppressive heat wave continues across the region as strong mid to upper level ridge over the Southern Rockies/West Texas stays in place through at least Wednesday. Subsidence aloft, along with warm and humid south to southwest surface winds will keep conditions hot and sticky. Forecast models remain consistent in placing 850 mb temperatures in the 22-26 degC range today through midweek, which translates to surface highs reaching the upper 90s to lo 100s. Expect highs mostly in the triple digits inland and in the mid 90s along the coast through Wednesday/Thursday. A Heat Advisory remains in effect today and is now in effect through Monday evening. Given the persistent warmth and humidity, the Advisory will likely need to be extended through at least Wednesday. In terms of PoPs, the overall trend remains predominantly dry due to strong subsidence remaining in place. However, don't be entirely surprised if isolated showers or storms manage to develop during the afternoon hours as weak, subtle shortwaves ride along the southeastern fringe of the ridge. If any rain/storms do develop, they should dissipate around or shortly after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. For those looking for relief from the heat, options remain limited. :( BUT temperatures should drop by a few degrees toward the end of the week. As the ridge aloft gradually shifts westward Thursday into the upcoming weekend, highs will ease slightly into the mid to upper 90s. Additionally, slightly weaker heights and an approaching backdoor front will bring at least a slight rain/storm chances late in the week. JM && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Mostly VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period. Winds will be SSW at around 5kts this morning, becoming SSE at 5-10kts in the afternoon and evening. There is a slight chance for showers/storms, mainly over the Piney Woods region, but will keep an eye on these in case they move more southward than expected. Stronger gusty winds can be expected in and around these storms. Winds will relax again to 5kts or less Sun night into Mon morning. Cotto && .MARINE... Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Surface high pressure centered over the western Gulf will continue to result in light to moderate south to southwest winds and seas around 1 to 3 ft. Expect winds shifting to the southwest and west late at night and in the mornings, transitioning generally to the south in the afternoon and evening with the seabreeze. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 104 78 103 77 / 10 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 103 80 102 80 / 10 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 92 83 92 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...47 AVIATION...Cotto MARINE...47  355 FXUS63 KGID 231141 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 641 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms move through the area today. Severe weather is unlikely. - Additional showers and thunderstorms redevelop tonight into Monday morning, although coverage will be more spotty. The threat for severe weather remains low. - Monday will be mostly dry (and warmer) with only a low chance for thunderstorms late Monday night into Tuesday morning. - Better chances for thunderstorms return on Tuesday, along with an increasing threat for severe weather. && .UPDATE... Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 As of 3am, coverage of showers and storms is starting to increase over the Sandhills. This trend is expected to continue as the showers/storms slide through central Nebraska/Kansas this morning. Nearly the entire area should see SOME rain, although amounts will be on the lighter side (less than 0.25" for most). Most locations will dry out this afternoon, although a few showers/storms could linger east of Highway 281 through 3-4pm. Plenty of cloud cover will keep temperatures noticeably cooler. Some spots may struggle to reach 75 degrees, although western zones should see enough clearing to at least reach/exceed 80 degrees. This evening, isolated convection is anticipated the Sandhills, but this should weaken as it moves into central Nebraska. Later overnight, more widespread (but non-severe) convection is expected to redevelop in the warm-air advection regime over eastern Nebraska. This would favor the northeastern half of the area. After early morning storms exit the area, dry conditions are anticipated for the rest of Monday. This should allow temperatures to rebound back closer to normal (80s to the low 90s). A few thunderstorms could slide in from the west early Tuesday morning. The primary severe threat should remain to our west on Tuesday morning. Redevelopment is then likely later in the day as an upper shortwave moves into the area, and some of this could become severe. As such, the SPC has introduced a "Marginal" to "Slight" risk across almost the entire the forecast area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Currently... The day started out on the wet side for a good chunk of the forecast area...as yet another upper level shortwave disturbance (aided by increased lower-level convergence) made its way across the region...with a couple spots producing wind gusts around 60 MPH. That activity exited the area around mid- morning...leaving behind a pretty nice day with plenty of sun. Upper air and satellite data showing continued northwesterly flow in place across the Central Plains this afternoon as the pattern remains well amplified across the CONUS. The main ridge axis extends north through the Rockies from high pressure centered mainly over CO/NM...sandwiched between areas of low pressure/southward extending troughing over northern Ontario and just off the Pac NW coast. At the surface...a large area of high pressure is centered over near the ND/Canada border, with its axis extending south roughly along the MO River. This is keeping winds across the forecast area easterly, with speeds on the lighter side, around 10-15 MPH. No big surprises as far as temperatures go...with mid afternoon readings in the low-mid 80s. This evening on into Sunday... Quiet conditions this afternoon will continue on into the evening hours, before precipitation chances ramp back up later tonight. Off to our west...radar and satellite imagery showing scattered storms developing over the Rockies, as another shortwave disturbance rides around the edge of the ridge, and aided by east-southeasterly lower-level upslope flow. The mainquestion as the late evening-overnight hours pass is how much of this activity is sustained long enough to move into our forecast area. Kept the forecast dry through 06Z...and some of the hi-res models suggest it'd be even later than that by a few hours before activity creeps into our western edge. Aided by lift along an increased, but not overly strong, SSErly low level jet...models are in pretty good agreement showing at least scattered activity making it into the forecast area. The timing may end up not too different than last night with the onset being around 09Z...but models suggest that activity lingers around the area longer, potentially not until early-mid afternoon before sliding off to our east. This activity is not expected to be severe...models still showing that while deeper layer shear isn't bad (30-35ish kts), the main axis of better instability focused just off to our west...so the SPC Day 1 outlook areas remain both west and south of the area. Once the activity pushes east, the rest of the day Sunday is dry, but will likely see more cloud cover linger longer into the day...especially across the eastern half of the area. This would impact high potential for the day...forecast currently has mid 70s in the east to mid 80s in the west (where more sun is possible). Between the sfc high shifting more to our east and low pressure deepening over the High Plains...winds are expected to turn more southerly for Sunday...with the potential for gusts near 20 MPH across areas mainly west of HWY 281. Later Sunday night into the overnight hours...little overall change in the upper level pattern means there will the potential for yet another shortwave disturbance to bring additional storm chances to the area. Main difference during this period is that models still suggesting this disturbance tracks a bit further north (as does better convergence along the LLJ)...and along with warmer mid-level temps the further SW you go, result in these chances more of a glancing shot, focused across the NNErn third or so of the forecast area. Severe weather chances remain low through Sunday night- early Mon AM. Monday and on... Outside of any lingering activity early in the morning, the daytime and at least early evening hours on Monday remain dry. Models showing little movement in the location of the main upper level area high of high pressure and northward extending ridging into the Rockies...but do show that area of low pressure currently off the Pac NW pushing further inland...sliding through the southern half of Saskatchewan during the daytime hours. Precipitation chances do return to the forecast late Monday night-Tuesday AM...but remain low (20-30 percent) as models vary with how much (if any?) activity impacts the forecast area, with the better upper level forcing well to our NW. Later Tuesday (more the evening/overnight hours) may bring better thunderstorm chances to the area...as that main upper low is working its way more into MN, with the trough axis draped further SW into the region. Storms may initially focus along an accompanying sfc frontal boundary (though it's not a strong one)...later aided by an increasing LLJ. Still plenty of uncertainty and details to iron out...as being this far south of the main upper low doesn't do the precip coverage any favors, and with the sfc front and LLJ potentially not overly strong, there are difference with just much activity there ends up being. The rest of the week continues to sound like a broken record...upper level pattern remaining northwesterly (potentially more zonal next weekend), with periodic shortwave disturbances bringing additional precipitation chances (mainly focused in the evening/overnight hours). As far as temperatures go for the new work week...not any significant changes, andnot expecting any notable swings. Forecast highs remain mainly in the 80s, with some 90s working into WSWrn areas. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 638 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Rain showers with a few non-severe thunderstorms continues to move across central Nebraska this morning. The bulk of the activity should clear through GRI by 15Z, with only a few light showers through around 18Z. Brief MVFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR visibility is possible in the storms, but otherwise VFR conditions are favored through the rest of the period. South-southeast winds increase today with gusts over 20kts in the afternoon hours (higher at EAR than GRI). && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Mangels DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...Mangels  380 FXUS63 KGRB 231142 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 642 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather today into Monday, with chances (50-80%) arriving Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Shower/storm chances linger into Thursday. - Slightly below normal temps today, then a return to near or slightly above normal readings for most of the new work week. Lows tonight drop into the 30s across north-central. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 109 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Today into Monday...Quiet weather conditions are on tap for the Great Lakes region as northwest flow prevails. The cooler air moving over the Great Lakes will generate some cloud development at times, especially over northern and eastern WI. Some daytime cumulus clouds are also expected later this morning and afternoon. Some showers/sprinkles are also expected across the central and eastern U.P. today. A couple of these could clip northern Door Co. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected as surface high pressure moves in. Northwest winds will increase this morning, with gusts to around 20 mph from mid-late morning into the afternoon, with winds easing after sunset. Some very patchy ground fog will be possible this morning and again Monday morning, especially across central and northern WI. Tuesday into Wednesday...Next chance for showers and some storms arrives Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon as a sharp mid-level trough and surface cold front work through. Details remain a little elusive as timing/strength differences remain with the front/forcing. So can't put too much confidence into when the best shot for rain will occur or the threat for stronger storms, but 50-80% PoPs arrive Tuesday evening/overnight as the initial WAA arrives. Chances for additional storms on Wednesday as the front moves across the area, but timing will determine when the highest chances will occur. LREF showing MUCAPEs up to ~1000 J/kg late Tuesday and up to ~1500 J/kg on Wednesday with deep layer shear in the 20-35 kt range. So some stronger storms will be possible if things line up right. Machine Learning not highlighting much of a severe threat at this point either. So will have to monitor for severe weather trends. Thursday into Saturday...After the front exits to the east, and similar to Saturday, steep low-level lapse rates, a weak shortwave and colder air aloft combined with peak heating should produce isolated to scattered showers and storms on Thursday, mainly in the afternoon. Dry conditions look to return on Friday with another possible weather system arriving next weekend. Temperatures...Below normal temps are expected today with highs ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s over northern WI to the 70s elsewhere. It will be chilly tonight with ideal radiational cooling conditions, with lows dropping into the mid 30s to around 40 across northern WI (where some very patchy frost is possible) and into the 40s to around 50 elsewhere. After the brief cool day down today and tonight, temps return to near or slightly above normal with highs mainly in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Normal highs for the coming week start off in the 77-78F range, but by next weekend fall off into the mid 70s. && .AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 642 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Other than some very patchy ground fog across north-central WI early this morning and possibly early Monday morning, look for VFR conditions through the TAF period. A small batch of mid-clouds will move across parts of central and northern WI this morning, with additional fair weather VFR (5-7 kft) cumulus clouds forming later this morning and afternoon. Skies will clear out late this afternoon and evening. Northwest winds will gust between 13-18 kts today, then become light and variable this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 109 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Northwest winds of 10-20 kts will continue today into tonight with gusts to 25 kts possible mainly north of Sturgeon Bay. Gusts have been struggling to get to 25 kts overnight, with only the mid-lake buoy hitting 25 kts for a short time. With CAA continuing this morning, still could see gusts to 25 kts. And the HREF 10m gust ensemble mean still showing 25-30 kt winds right to Washington Island, but keep the stronger winds towards northern Lake Michigan. Will continue the Small Craft Advisory for the central Bay and for Lake Michigan nearshore waters north of Sturgeon Bay through 15z. Offshore winds will limit waves to 1 to 3 ft for most spots on the bay and nearshore waters, with any 3-4 foot waves staying near Deaths Door and in the open waters. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Bersch AVIATION.......Bersch MARINE.........Bersch  419 FXUS61 KOKX 231144 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 744 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added in enhanced wording for thunderstorm attributes into today with possible heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail with some thunderstorms. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Chances for showers and thunderstorms through today with low pressure and cold front moving through. Some thunderstorms could be strong with a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. 2) Possible lingering showers Monday into early Monday evening. Otherwise mainly dry with high pressure eventually building back in Monday night into midweek. 3) Chances for showers and thunderstorm return Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Heights lowering in mid levels as a closed low moves eastward. This will introduce colder temperatures aloft and help keep up convective chances. Ahead of a wave of low pressure, low level environment will become more unstable. CAMs depict convection developing more rapidly this morning especially with diurnal heating. The focus seems to be the first half of the day as CAMs really start depleting convective coverage late afternoon into the evening. This will be a high shear, low CAPE environment so there is potential for some thunderstorms to be strong to even severe. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. Threats with thunderstorms will be heavy rain, gusty winds and small hail. There is a marginal risk for damaging winds and large hail. The thunderstorms are expected to be moving fast enough with the shear to mitigate flooding potential. However, minor flooding will still be a possibility with the thunderstorms, especially for low lying, urban and poor drainage areas. Temperatures do not deviate much from normal values through today. .KEY MESSAGE 2... The closed low in the mid levels will continue slowly moving east tonight through Monday and will then slowly move farther northeast. The heights continue to lower tonight through Monday and then will start to rise Monday night. National blend of model dataset keeps dry conditions but CAMs indicate otherwise for Monday with diurnal instability. Would expect isolated to widely scattered showers on Monday with a slight chance of thunderstorms as well. Manually put this in the forecast because national blend of models is not reflecting this potential in its forecast. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions tonight through Monday. A higher confidence of dry conditions for the entire area Monday night through midweek with high pressure building in from the west. Aloft, the height rises continue and the pattern transitions from a trough to quasi-zonal. Temperatures do not deviate much from normal values tonight through midweek. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Model guidance continues to show an upper level trough pushing southeast into the Northeast Thursday into Friday. At the surface, areas of low pressure approach from the west. This will be associated with an approaching frontal system. The forecast has increasing chances of showers Thursday, with showers becoming likely Thursday night for most locations. The forecast showers continue into Friday. There will be possible thunderstorms as well but those probabilities will be less than the showers. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A warm front moves through this morning, followed by a cold front for mid to late evening. High pressure gradually builds from the west during Monday. Primarily MVFR through 15-16z. Any IFR for east and northeast terminals gives way to prevailing MVFR later this morning. PROB30 groups for TSRA have been maintained at most terminals for the late morning until 18-19z. All terminals eventually improve to VFR for the afternoon. Winds become SE to Sbriefly this morning, then SW by around noontime for most terminals. Terminals east of NYC shift SW later in the day. Gusts up to 20kt this afternoon are possible for some terminals. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments remain a possibility through this morning for changing flight cats. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Monday through Wednesday: VFR. WSW gusts around 20kt on Monday afternoon. Thursday: VFR AM, chance of sub-VFR and PM -shra. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Conditions on the marine zones are still expected to remain below small craft advisory thresholds during the marine forecast period. Pressure gradient overall remains relatively weak. Rip Currents: A moderate risk is expected for both today and Monday. The swell will be primarily from the SE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...JE MARINE...JM  408 FXUS63 KICT 231144 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 644 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Non-severe showers/thunderstorms possible today across portions of central and eastern Kansas. - Strong to severe thunderstorms possible tonight through early Monday, along with locally heavy rain. - Periodic chances for off-and-on thunderstorms through at least next weekend, especially during the evening-nighttime- morning hours. - Near to above average temperatures the next several days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 206 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 THUNDERSTORM CHANCES: TODAY...A weak thunderstorm complex is expected to progress east- southeast into central Kansas toward sunrise, ahead of an MCV approaching from the west. These showers/storms will be outrunning the better instability further west, so we're not expecting severe weather. This activity could reach as far east-southeast as roughly the KS Turnpike by late morning, with festering widely scattered showers/thunderstorms possible through the rest of the day over portions of central and eastern KS within a zone of 800-600mb warm advection. In all instances, severe weather or widespread heavy rainfall appears unlikely. TONIGHT--EARLY MONDAY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop toward midnight tonight and persist into early Monday, mainly along/south of Highway 56 and along/east of Highway 14, within a zone of strengthening 850-700mb warm/moist advection. Adequate elevated instability amidst decent directional effective shear may support a handful of severe thunderstorms capable of quarter to half-dollar size hail. Additionally, stout downdraft CAPE may also support some severe wind gusts. Additionally, the potential for numerous/training storms may support locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding concerns. By sunrise Monday, much of this activity should have progressed to mainly along/east of the Flint Hills, with all activity likely exiting the region by late morning. LATE TUESDAY--NEXT WEEKEND...These periodic thunderstorm chances look to persist off-and-on through at least next weekend, mainly during the evening-nighttime-morning hours, as periodic shortwaves progress east-southeast over Mid-America north of a stout upper ridge anchored over the southern to southwest CONUS. Seasonable instability combined with decent directional shear should yield a continued strong to severe thunderstorm threat, with wind/hail being the primary threats, along with locally heavy rain. TEMPERATURES: With the stout upper ridge remaining anchored within fairly close proximity to the Kansas region, near to above average temperatures are expected through at least the next 7-10 days. Periodic triple digit heat indices are likely, mainly over south-central and southeast Kansas during the afternoon through early evening hours. The "coolest" day looks to be today, with increased clouds and scattered precipitation keeping daytime highs in the 80s and 90s, coolest over portions of central, east-central, and southeast KS. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A cluster of weak showers with a few embedded lightning strikes is currently moving east over west-northwest KS. This activity could impact RSL-GBD-SLN toward mid-morning through about midday. Covered this threat with PROB30 groups. Later tonight into early Monday, scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are expected to develop over portions of eastern Kansas, within a zone of strengthening 850-700 warm/moist advection. Thinking most of the activity will be generally along/east of the Flint Hills, although activity could form as far west as ICT-SLN. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...ADK  446 FXUS65 KCYS 231145 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 545 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lower coverage of showers and thunderstorms today, mainly further south near the Colorado border and western Nebraska. Brief strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall expected with this activity into this evening. - Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue Monday through the end of the week with slightly above average temperature expected until Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 155 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Current KCYS radar loop shows remnant convective activity weakening early this morning across western Nebraska as the low to midlevels stabilize for the rest of tonight. Will need to monitor the potential for fog with weak south winds and near saturated conditions near the surface. Otherwise, still getting some brief wind gusts of 45 to 55 MPH with the left over convection, but that should end shortly. Disturbance aloft, which aided in most of the convection initiation on Saturday, will continue to push east early this morning and eventually into central and eastern Nebraska by sunrise. With slightly drier and more stable air behind this shortwave disturbance, expect coverage of showers and thunderstorms to be considerably less today. Expect dewpoint to fall into the upper 30s and 40s along and west of the I-25 corridor, possibly as far east as far western Nebraska. No notable forcing today as the flatten ridge amplifies slightly this afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms expected today, but mainly further south along and near the I-80 corridor. Increased POP a bit across western Nebraska with the surface moisture remaining in place. There is more shear across this region as well, so can't rule out a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms. Coverage of severe thunderstorms will be limited, just like on Saturday. Otherwise, surface winds are expected to increase out of the west with gusts of 30 to 45 MPH possible, especially across southeast Wyoming near the wind prone areas and west of the I-25 corridor. For Monday, similar convective environment compared to Sunday but with more midlevel forcing and a bit more low level convergence near the Laramie Range. These factors will help convection initiation which high resolution models all show into the mid to late afternoon and through the evening hours. Increased POP between 25 to 40 percent, especially further south along the Interstate 80 corridor and the mountains. As we head into the evening hours, expect enhanced moisture advection and convergence near the surface as surface winds shift into the east across the eastern plains. With inverted V soundings for much of the day, expect any thunderstorms to produce gusty winds into the evening hours. SPC introduced a Marginal Risk of strong to severe thunderstorms, mainly for strong outflow winds. Remaining very warm or hot during the day with highs in the mid 80s (west) to mid 90s east of the Interstate 25 corridor. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Moving into the work week we'll start off on the hot side with a high pressure ridge firmly in control of the Western US. While temperatures will cool just a couple of degrees compared to Sunday, highs still sit warmer than average by around 5-8 degrees. A cold front will be approaching the region with another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms on tap including locally stronger to weakly severe activity possible. By Tuesday though a backdoor cold front will offer very meager respite as highs drop by around 2-6 degrees, closer to near average but still above by up to a few degrees. Similarly, moisture will continue to remain just above average at around 120-140% of average, equating to PWAT values of 0.75-1.25 inches. While not impressive by any stretch of the imagination, this should continue to fuel daytime thunderstorms with a marginal risk of severe activity. Wednesday through the end of the week look to be largely similar with a steady warming trend, bringing us back to temperatures similar to Monday alongside continued daily afternoon thunderstorm risk under westerly to northwesterly flow. Drier air will slowly infiltrate through the week though, and this will begin to steadily increase our fire weather risk with elevated conditions at least by Friday. Anyone expecting an early end to summer will be sorely disappointed in the last full week of August. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 545 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Potent upper level disturbance will push east of the Front Range this morning, with some drier air moving into the area. Lower coverage of thunderstorms expected this afternoon with breezy to locally windy conditions expected over central Wyoming. HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Low CIGS and fog can't be ruled out early this morning, but confidence remains low enough to keep out of the eastern plains TAF. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms expected after 20z, but coverage will be minimal for most terminals, so left out any mention of thunder. The only exception is KCYS which has the best chance to see an afternoon thunderstorm, so added PROB30 mention between 20z and 23z. KRWL and KLAR will likely experience westerly winds gusting between 30 to 35 knots at times. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...TJT  660 FXUS61 KBOX 231147 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 747 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms around today, especially towards the CT River Valley where an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm or two is possible. - Drier and warmer next week before rain chances make a return sometime Thursday/Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and storms around today, especially towards the CT River Valley where an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm or two is possible. Weak low pressure just off to our northeast continues to aid in continued NE low level flow this morning, keeping overcast skies over southern New England. Chances for spotty showers continue primarily towards Nantucket and the outer Cape where showers are just offshore and continuing to move off to the northeast. Aside from these, misty and foggier conditions continue this morning across the region. The main thing to keep an eye out for today will be the chances for some showers and storms towards the afternoon. Showers tracking across New York associated with the approaching cold front will approach western MA and CT towards the late morning/early afternoon hours. The low pressure to our northeast loosens its grip over southern New England as more southerly winds take hold in the late morning/early afternoon hours, advecting in dewpoints in the 70s. Increased humidity along with diurnal instability may enhance the risk for storms in the interior turning strong to severe. Even with cloudier skies inhibiting instability a bit, model soundings and CAM guidance have MUCAPE values around 1500-1800 J/kg over the CT Valley in the afternoon, and MLCAPE values to around 1200-1300 J/kg with limited capping in the soundings. Effective bulk shear values around 40 kt will also aid in development of an isolated stronger to severe storm or two, with the main risk of these storms being damaging winds. PWAT values still around 1.25-1.5" in the afternoon ahead of the front will also keep the risk for some torrential downpours in play. The interior remains in a Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather today considering this environment. Outside of this risk of showers and storms, the rest of the region can expect to remain mostly dry, albeit dreary. Humid conditions prevail with highs in the upper 70s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier and warmer next week before rain chances make a return sometime Thursday/Friday. The cold front to our west passes through the region heading into Monday, clearing skies quickly in its wake. Drier post-frontal air flows into the region, noted by dew points falling into the 50s and low 60s and PWATs to an inch and lower. Temperatures return to more seasonable levels in the 70s and 80s, though it should feel more comfortable than today given the reduced humidity. High pressure steadily builds in through Tuesday into Wednesday as ridging takes place of the troughing from Quebec that will continue to shift off to the east. Clear skies and dry weather prevail through this period. Greater uncertainty reenters the forecast towards Thursday and Friday with the approach and development of another shortwave over the Great Lakes. Ensemble and deterministic guidance does hint at the return of elevated moisture towards this time period, along with rain showers. Latest ensemble guidance has PWAT values returning to around 1.5" Thursday afternoon into Friday, along with more southerly flow towards the surface. Inconsistencies remain among the ensembles, though, regarding the track of the low associated with the shortwave. This also leads to discrepancies regarding the timing of any showers. && .AVIATION /12ZSUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12z TAF Update... Today and Tonight...Moderate confidence. IFR with localized LIFR this morning. Ceilings improve to MVFR through the day. Improvements to VFR should occur overnight from W to E as the front pushes through southern New England. Scattered showers are possible this morning and afternoon. and Low chance of a t-storm in the afternoon for western terminals (BDL). ENE winds will gradually shift to the S/SW this afternoon and evening at 6-12 kts. Light SW winds overnight less than 8 kts. Monday...High confidence. Post-front, skies clear and VFR conditions return. Breezy SW winds sustained around 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Some uncertainty regarding timing of showers today, but more likely in the afternoon (17-21Z). Few -SHRA or -DZ possible this morning. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Given scattered nature of possible TSRA towards BDL in the afternoon, maintained in TAF as PROB30. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Tuesday Night: VFR. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Monday...High confidence. Winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through tonight. However, gusts could get close to this criteria during the day Monday following the cold front passing through tonight. Patchy fog over the waters tonight will clear following the front as well. Seas remain between 2-4 ft with 5 ft seas possible tonight in the far ocean waters. Winds shift more S to SW today, continuing through Monday. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Wednesday through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hrencecin AVIATION...Hrencecin/Mensch MARINE...Hrencecin  635 FXUS63 KIWX 231146 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 746 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hazardous swimming conditions are expected on Lake MI beaches along Berrien Co, MI and La Porte County, IN today. Dangerous waves and currents are expected. Monitor the beach forecast for updates. - Chances (20-30%) for rain showers today, with partly cloudy skies and gusty northwest winds. Highs in the low-mid 70s. - Dry tonight into Wednesday morning. Chances for showers and thunderstorms (30-60%) return Wednesday afternoon and persist into Thursday. Highs in the 70s, low 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The 500mb low hovering over northern Ontario will deepen and shift southward into the Lake Huron/Southern Ontario/Quebec area by late tonight, then lift slowly northeastward through Wednesday along with the corresponding surface low. Our area lingers under cyclonic flow aloft/at the surface through later tonight when surface high pressure builds in beneath an expanding ridge to our west. The upper level ridge builds in more broadly on Tuesday. A shortwave pinwheeling around the closed low moves through this afternoon/eve along with a surface trough, which will re-invigorate the stronger northwest wind gusts and wave activity on Lake MI (thus beach hazards statement/small craft remain in place until this evening despite the lull overnight/early AM). It will also bring us the potential for rain showers where deeper moisture remains and we get some afternoon instability (perhaps a little enhancement from cooler air over Lake MI). Have chances around 20-30 percent. With cooler 850mb temps (7-10C) high temps this afternoon will primarily be in the low to mid 70s, warmest east of I 69. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s. Dry conditions persist from tonight into Wednesday morning as a dampening upper level ridge moves in over the Great Lakes. Highs will be in the 70s, low 80s. Lows will be in the 50s. Another upper level trough moves through the Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon into Thursday night, bringing a surface low through northern Ontario into Hudson/James Bay. A cold front will move west to east across our CWA Wed afternoon into Thu, bringing us chances (30-60%) for showers and thunderstorms. Beyond that period, the upper low lingers over Hudson Bay into Saturday, eventually moving northeast through the weekend. Flow over our area becomes more zonal in this time, with potential precipitation chances with each shortwave rippling through. Confidence wasn't high enough to have any pops for Friday/Saturday, but on Sunday we see a stronger wave move in so have 20-30 percent chances added in. Temperatures remain in the mid-upper 70s, low 80s through the period. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 743 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Predominantly VFR conditions outside of any potential shower activity this morning or afternoon. A few showers have developed over SW Lower MI/NW IN as of this writing, likely to impact KSBN (or be very close) within the next couple hours. Have a tempo to account for any MVFR potential. Otherwise, NW winds pick up this afternoon again, with potential for shower development closer to KFWA. As mentioned in previous discussion, models are pretty inconsistent as to where these showers pop, so persisted with the PROB30 for now. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043- 046. && $$ DISCUSSION...MCD AVIATION...MCD  616 FXUS64 KBRO 231146 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 646 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 642 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Hot and rain-free conditions will continue through late next week. - Moderate (level 2 of 4) to major risk (3 of 4) of heat-related impacts through the period with peak afternoon heat indices generally between 105 to around 110 degrees. - The combination of low minimum relativity humidity values, dry fuels, and very hot temperatures could lead to the potential for rapid wildfire spread through the period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A strong 500 mb ridge will meander over southern New Mexico/western Texas and northern Mexico extending over Texas through late next week. This will continue to provide subsidence across Deep South Texas with very hot and mainly rain-free conditions through forecast period. Daily high temperatures are expected to reach the upper 90s to around 105 degrees, except near the coast. The combination of the very hot temperatures and elevated dewpoint temperatures will support heat indices generally between 105 to 110 degrees each afternoon. Heat indices may briefly reach 111+ at a few locations in the afternoon, but temperatures should remain just below Heat Advisory criteria each day. Widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) to Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk expected through the weekend and into the middle of next week. The combination of low minimum relativity humidity values, dry fuels, and very hot temperatures could lead to the potential for rapid wildfire spread through the period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 642 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are forecast to continue through the TAF period. southeasterly winds are forecast to shift more easterly and increase to around 10 knots this afternoon. Winds will likely briefly gusts to around 20 knots as the sea breeze moves through early this afternoon, with gusts diminishing by late afternoon. Light and variable winds are forecast to develop overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Favorable marine conditions will prevail along the lower Texas Coast through the period as high pressure continues across the Gulf. Light to occasionally moderate south to southeast winds and low seas are expected through late next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 99 80 98 79 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 102 76 102 75 / 0 0 10 0 MCALLEN 105 79 104 79 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 105 76 104 76 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 81 89 81 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 97 78 96 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...63 LONG TERM....63 AVIATION...60-BE  683 FXUS63 KBIS 231148 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 648 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across western and south central North Dakota this afternoon and evening. Potential hazards include hail up to the size of ping pong balls, damaging winds up to 70 mph, and torrential downpours. - Conditional risk for isolated severe thunderstorms in central and eastern North Dakota Monday afternoon and evening. Potential hazards include large hail up to 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds up to 70 mph. - Temperatures generally favored to remain near average through next week. - Near-critical fire weather conditions could develop in parts of western North Dakota on Monday, and the far southwest on Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 644 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The forecast for today remains on track. Current conditions and trends were blended in for this update. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 422 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 An upper level ridge axis extends from the Texas Panhandle through western North Dakota early this morning, with a shortwave ejecting off the Northern Rockies preceding a deeper closed low over western Washington. The shortwave will be the main focus for showers and thunderstorms developing in western and central North Dakota later this morning through this evening. A handful of models bring some weaker elevated convection into southwest North Dakota by mid morning, but there is better consensus for an increase in both coverage and intensity beginning in northwest North Dakota early this afternoon and spreading south and eastward through the late afternoon and evening hours. Showers and storms will develop over a boundary layer with a southerly, moisture-rich return flow, although there is some question whether an MCS over southwest South Dakota and northern Nebraska early this morning could impede moisture transport to some extent. That uncertainty aside, diurnal heating should contribute to CAPE increasing as high as 2000 J/kg with deep layer shear forecast to increase from 30 kts in the afternoon to 40 kts in the evening. There are some factors that could dampen the intensity of convection, including mid level lapse rates less than 6 C/km and a capping inversion that boundary layer mixing and cooling aloft from height falls may not be able to fully erode. Nevertheless, recent CAMs have certainly honed in on an outcome that includes a few severe thunderstorms over parts of western and central North Dakota from mid afternoon through this evening. A lack of a well-defined surface boundary and a mixture of shear and deep layer wind vector orientation to the dewpoint/CAPE gradient would seemingly point toward a multicell/cluster storm mode, which fits with CAMs' reflectivity simulations. Confidence in sustained supercellular structure is low, so have limited our most likely maximum hail size forecast to ping pong balls for now. If upscale growth can lead to more organized convection, damaging winds up to 70 mph could emerge as the dominant severe hazard, especially in the evening when 0-3 km shear could increase to 35 kts. Despite low LCLs and 0-1 km shear greater than 10 kts, model hodographs do not appear to be supportive of tornadogenesis. While instantaneous rainfall rates could be quite high with these storms, their forward propagation should limit the risk for localized flooding, with urban areas being a possible exception. Back to the west, the deeper closed low is forecast to eject off the Canadian Rockies this evening. Lee cyclogenesis is already underway from Alberta through central Montana, but the lee trough/cold front is not forecast to reach western North Dakota until later tonight. Models have shown mixed signals on whether strong to severe convection associated with the trough in central/eastern Montana this afternoon and evening will survive into western North Dakota later tonight. More recent guidance has trended to a lower probability of convective maintenance, which may be due in part to the increased probabilities of thunderstorms in North Dakota stabilizing the air mass in between the two convective systems. MUCAPE is actually projected to remain as high as 2000 J/kg through the night in western North Dakota, but model soundings reveal the most-unstable layer to be highly-capped. Depending on the timing of decaying convection, there could be some higher wind gusts sneaking across the Montana border around midnight. A conditional threat for severe storms continues in central and eastern North Dakota on Monday, but confidence in convective initiation is quite low. Even though several forcing mechanisms are forecast to be present, including mid level height falls/ DCVA, low level warm air convergence, and surface convergence along the frontal boundary attendant to the Canadian low, there may not be enough of an alignment of these features to ensure deep moist convection initiates, and there are a number of possible scenarios and combinations thereof being displayed by the suite of CAMs. First, there is potential for elevated morning convection moving across northern North Dakota ahead of the surface front in an area where stronger warm air advection on the mesoscale could overlap with stronger height falls as the Canadian upper low spins over southern Saskatchewan. This may or may not play a role in afternoon convection if it occurs. A capping inversion will almost certainly delay surface-based convection until late afternoon and early evening. Then it becomes a question of whether strong enough forcing will come into alignment for sustained deep moist convection. Despite the low probabilities for convective initiation and coverage, the threat ceiling may be higher than today, with CAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg and deep layer shear closer to 40-50 kts. Unlike today, there is a clear favoring of a discrete storm mode with shear and deep layer wind vectors perpendicular to the surface boundary. Model hodographs are long and mostly straight, but with enough curvature to support splitting supercells. The most likely maximum hail size forecast for Monday has therefore been increased to 2 inches in diameter, with the maximum wind gust forecast remaining at 70 mph on account of forecast DCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. Similar to today, the tornado risk on Monday appears to be low on account of modeled hodograph structure, despite low LCLs and modest low level shear. In non-convective forecast news, today will be seasonably warm and humid with highs mostly in the 80s and dewpoints rising into the mid 50s to mid 60s. It will also be a bit breezy with southeast winds around 15-20 mph. Monday is favored to be the warmest day of the upcoming week for most areas, with widespread highs around 85 to 90. The post-frontal air mass in western North Dakota will become very dry and could feature gusty northwest winds Monday afternoon, which may lead to near- critical fire weather conditions. The southern Canadian low, which will become nearly-stacked Monday night, is forecast to dive southeastward into the Red River Valley on Tuesday. This brings slightly cooler daytime temperatures and stronger northwest winds into the forecast as the surface pressure gradient gets squeezed between the low and high pressure building over Alberta and Saskatchewan. RH could be low enough in the far southwest for another afternoon of near-critical fire weather conditions on Tuesday. The NBM has also increased PoPs for diurnally-driven showers in the northwest cyclonic flow regime Tuesday afternoon, just in the Turtle Mountains area for now but could see that expanding with future forecast updates. The downstream low continues a southeastward trajectory toward the Great Lakes on Wednesday as surface ridging slides into the Northern Plains and the upper level ridge begins to reamplify over the Rockies. A deeper trough digging into the Pacific Northwest on Thursday could push the upper ridge back into the Northern Plains by the end of the week, with ensemble spread on the synoptic pattern increasing thereafter. Ensemble clusters now tend to favor more of a quasi-zonal flow pattern heading into next weekend, which is evident in deterministic guidance. But there is still some support for yet another reemergence of the upper level ridge somewhere between the Rockies and Great Plains. The potential quasi-zonal flow is reflected in the NBM returning daily low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances to the forecast from Friday onward. The temperature outlook for mid to late next week remains close to average, with highs mostly in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows mostly in the 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 644 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase from west to east this morning through this evening. A few storms could be severe, particularly in southwest and south central North Dakota from mid afternoon through early evening. If a storm moves over a terminal, IFR visibility and strong wind gusts can be expected, with large hail and a brief MVFR ceiling possible. A few showers and storms could linger into the overnight hours or re-enter western North Dakota late tonight. Outside of showers and storms, VFR conditions and south to southeast winds around 10-20 kts are expected through the forecast period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan DISCUSSION...Hollan AVIATION...Hollan  680 FXUS63 KDMX 231148 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 648 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather continues today with highs in upper 70s to lower 80s. Areas of patchy morning fog remain possible. - Rain chances return Sunday night into Monday morning (40- 50%), mainly across western Iowa. Severe weather is not anticipated. - Early signs of a somewhat more active weather pattern next weekend, with a return of more persistent rain chances but any details still unclear at this range. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 218 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Saturday was arguably the best day in August so far! Highs climbed into the upper 70s to lower 80s across the state with dew points generally in the 50s and 60s making for a pleasant afternoon. Surface high pressure remains in place across the Central Plains this morning, keeping conditions calm across the Upper Midwest. With the high ushering dry air across central iowa, skies remain mostly clear tonight allowing for efficient radiational cooling. Lows overnight are expected to drop into the upper 50s across southern Iowa and lower 50s north. Given clear skies and calm winds, areas of patchy fog remain possible overnight- primarily along low lying river valleys, with minimal impacts as fog should remain fairly wispy. As we head into late morning, fog will burn off and cloud cover will increase from western Iowa ahead of our next incoming disturbance. The 500 MB trough centered over Ontario will begin shifting eastward, flattening the northern edge of the Four Corners ridge that has been anchored for past few days. Consequently, short range guidance indicates a shortwave emerging off the Rockies, pushing unsettled weather across the High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. This will allow rain chances to return to western and central Iowa as early as Sunday night. The main forecast challenge is the timing of initial rain onset, as forecast soundings show a very dry layer in the lower to mid levels. While short range guidance attempts to introduce showers into western Iowa as early as Sunday afternoon, precipitation chances were kept out of the daytime forecast due to the strong signal of dry air keeping initial returns as virga. Overnight, a strengthening LLJ will push into western iowa, enhancing low level moisture transport and saturating the column top down. The highest precipitation chances (40-50%) will align near the jet axis, with chances dropping of eastward toward the Des Moines to Davenport corridor (30-10%) where the deep layer saturation is harder to achieve. If the jet shifts further east, rain chances will need to bumped up accordingly. Rain chances gradually diminish into Monday afternoon. Severe Weather is not anticipated with this round due to negligible instability, with activity expected to remain mostly showers and an isolated storm or two. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 By Monday night the eastern 500 MB trough will have shifted over Quebec, while the western one crosses from Saskatchewan into Manitoba, then subsequently shifts east southeastward into the Lake Superior region by Wednesday. In Iowa this will be concurrent with a very light surface pressure/flow pattern, resulting in nebulous low rain chances at times from Monday night into Wednesday. As the 500 MB trough moves over Lake Superior, it will help push a large surface high pressure area down the northern High Plains and Midwest during this time, later bringing relatively comfortable and dry weather from around Wednesday night through Friday. The onset of the influence of this surface ridge will take the form of a modest trough, pushing through ahead of the main mid-level shortwave sometime around Tuesday night. Differences in timing and the sharpness of the trough lead to a high variability in model solutions, however, there does appear to be some potential for good destabilization on Tuesday afternoon/evening and also potential for moderate deep-layer (0-6 KM) shear of perhaps 30-35 KT or so. Again, there is significant variability in these solutions and much will depend on diurnal timing, but it is possible if the trough has enough low-level convergence and comes through during peak diurnal heating time, there may be a narrow window of opportunity for pulse storms with a severe weather threat late Tuesday. A more likely scenario, however, is that the trough comes through overnight with much less instability and/or weaker shear, or that the trough is too weak and low-level convergence is not sufficient to support stronger updrafts, or both. By next weekend, the 500 MB pattern should begin to shift just a bit, with the ridge flattening and shifting a bit toward the southwestern U.S., while a more zonal flow pattern sets up across the northern CONUS and Iowa. This would favor a somewhat more active weather regime in our region, with persistent rain chances likely returning. Of course that is still a week-plus out, but something to keep an eye on in the coming days. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions will prevail with light winds. Added in a Prob30 for rain at KFOD for late in the planning period. Impacts with rain are expected to be low with a low chance of thunder. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TDR LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...Jimenez  783 FXUS61 KPBZ 231151 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 751 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Risk for severe weather this afternoon/evening in northwest PA is lower, with no other hazardous weather anticipated through at least mid week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Spotty showers with low probability thunderstorm chances possible through this evening. 2) Minimal hazards for majority of week before widespread precipitation chances return to end the week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Upper troughing lingering over the upper OH River valley combined with cold advection over warm Lake Erie waters is enough to produced localized, brief showers with a low probability for thunderstorms through this evening. While SBCAPE peaks around 1000 J/kg around the I-80 corridor (enough to foster deeper convection), such lackluster shear (struggling to touch 20kts) should limit enough organization/intensification to keep storms below severe thresholds. Activity generally comes to an end after sunset as subsidence and loss of heating suppresses activity. The exception is near/north of I-80 in northwest PA where an embedded shortwaves in NW could create short periods where showers (mainly) through Monday. KEY MESSAGE 2... Lingering cool advection within northwest flow results in high temperatures around 10 degrees below the daily average Monday while high pressure supports dry weather (save for a low probability shower near Lake Erie). Height rises over the surface high ensures dry weather persists Tuesday into Wednesday while elevating temperature back to near the seasonal averages. Ensembles remain firm in an upper shortwave digging through the Ohio River Valley Thursday into Friday, creating the next round of widespread shower and thunderstorm chances. Model differences in timing of upper shortwave and surface boundary movement leaves large variability in potential storm environments (ex: spread between 25th-75th percentile SBCAPE values Thursday afternoon is around 700 J/kg, a significant value). Trough passage within the summer season means this period should be monitored, but little more can be confidently said at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High confidence forecast save for CIGS toward daybreak Monday which could be VFR instead of the currently forecast MVFR. IFR CIGS across the PA and WV terminals will lift to MVFR then VFR through the morning hours. They will stay VFR the balance of the forecast when there is a 45% chance they go to MVFR after 9Z Monday. FKL and DUJ could see passing showers off of Lake Erie this morning and again this evening when the next upper air disturbance passes. If those airports are impacted MVFR VIS perhaps even IFR VIS could occur. Highest confidence of airports staying dry the entire forecast are ZZV and MGW. There is a low prob that the terminals around Pittsburgh could see shower between 2-6Z, but not enough confidence to add at this time. Wind will be from the southwest with gusts eclipsing 20 knots this afternoon at the windier terminals. Outlook... Outside of low probability rain showers near Lake Erie through Monday, building high pressure and height rises aloft favor VFR through the middle of next week. The next widespread restriction and rain chances returns near the end of the week. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Frazier AVIATION...McMullen/Frazier  754 FXUS66 KOTX 231150 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 450 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lingering thunderstorms over Northeast WA and North ID through Sunday morning. - Breezy winds across the Basin on Sunday. && .SYNOPSIS... A weather system continues to impact the region through Sunday morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms producing gusty outflow winds, along with breezy winds and low relative humidity expected. Sunday will remain breezy and dry, but cooler. Temperatures will warm again at the start of next week with breezy conditions returning by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today: The Low will be passing through the North Idaho into Alberta. There is still enough instability to generate showers and occasional isolated thunderstorm over Northeast WA and North Idaho through the morning. These areas have a round 10-30% probability of thunderstorms. The thunderstorm threat will diminish through the afternoon as the system continues eastward. The system will bring gusty winds across the Basin with gusts in the 20-30 mph range. Winds will be breezy through the day before declining by the evening. Highs will be cooler with a range of upper 70s to 80s expected. Monday through Saturday: A ridge will build into the region along the Continental Divide while a trough digs in off the coast. A similar pattern will be setting up from this past weekend. The ridge will be in place for a couple of days leading to dry, warm pattern. Highs will climb back into the 90s. Moderate HeatRisk will return for most lowland locations on Tuesday. The trough begin to push into the region on Wednesday and slowly track East through the end of the week. Ensembles have weak instability over the Cascades, northern mountains, and the Idaho Panhandle. Precipitable water amounts are 0.5-0.75 of an inch. These areas will likely have isolated showers with an occasional lightning strike. NBM has around a 10% probability of lightning. Winds will increase through the Okanogan Valley and Waterville Plateau with gusts in the 20-30 mph range. While it does not bring in a meaningful amount of rain, the trough will drop highs back into the 80s through the end of the week. /JDC && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFs: Showers over far NE WA into N Idaho will move out of the area this morning along with a few embedded thunderstorms. Another wave passing through in the afternoon will allow for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to redevelop near the Canadian border. Otherwise a dry westerly flow is expected to promote VFR conditions for all TAF sites along with breezy west to southwest winds. These winds will quickly decrease between 1z-4z this evening as pressure gradients relax as high pressure begins to develop over the region. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Prevailing west to southwest winds today is expected to keep the bulf of the smoke from regional wildfires in British Columbia and east Slopes of the Cascades north of KEAT- KGEG- KSFF- KCOE through the afternoon. Depend on amount of smoke production from area wildfires as inversions develop tonight and winds shift to north-northwest could see some visibility restrictions at KEAT/KMWH but confidence is low in conditions dropping to below VFR. JW ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 58 80 53 86 55 93 / 30 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 58 79 52 86 55 93 / 50 00 0 0 0 Pullman 50 76 45 86 49 93 / 30 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 61 85 56 92 61 98 / 30 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 51 78 43 86 46 93 / 20 30 10 0 0 0 Sandpoint 55 76 46 82 50 90 / 50 10 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 54 76 51 84 54 91 / 50 10 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 55 84 52 89 57 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 63 82 61 87 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 55 83 53 88 57 93 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning until 11 AM PDT Sunday for Selkirk Mountains of Northeast Washington (Zone 700). Air Quality Alert until further notice for Central Chelan County-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin- Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County. ID...Red Flag Warning until 11 AM PDT Sunday for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101). && $$  827 FXUS63 KLBF 231152 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 652 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist across north central Nebraska this morning into the afternoon. This will mainly be areas east of Highway 83. While severe weather is not expected, locally heavy rainfall is possible. - Periodic disturbances will cross an upper level ridge, leading to near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Saturday. - Ridging will amplify across the western CONUS middle to the end of the week, allowing cooler air to back into eastern and northeastern portions of the forecast area. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Showers and thunderstorms driven by the low level jet overnight will continue to persist through the morning across portions of western and north central Nebraska, with the bulk of precipitation remaining east of Highway 83. This southerly to southeasterly push from the low level jet will help maintain dewpoints in the 60s across the region, continuing to provide ample surface moisture. Additionally, seeing some moisture advection aloft maintaining fairly moist profiles through the atmosphere. CAM guidance suggests PWAT values today around 1.5 inches, which is not too far off the 00z LBF sounding showing 1.39 inches from yesterday evening. This abundance of moisture will support a risk for locally heavy rainfall, as well as continued showers and thunderstorms. By the afternoon, as an upper level shortwave tracks across western South Dakota, expecting a weak boundary to track across the region. Guidance highlights this best with a wind shift around 850 mb coinciding with a theta-e gradient at the surface. This should be just sufficient enough to continue showers and thunderstorms across eastern portions of the region this afternoon, mainly east of Highway 83 and most likely even east of Highway 183 in north central Nebraska. With this relatively persistent signal for rain, as well as potential for heavy rainfall at times, WPC has put eastern portions of the CWA under a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall. With this persistent rain and cloud cover, will be very hard to build any meaningful instability across eastern portions of the region, so believe the severe weather risk will remain low today. Behind the precipitation, while some instability may build, expecting more stable conditions in the environment which will likely limit shower and thunderstorm potential. Additional low level jet forcing Sunday night may bring even more showers and thunderstorms across portions of north central Nebraska, again remaining mostly east of the Highway 183 corridor. Again, not expecting that the environment will be supportive of severe weather, but locally heavy rainfall as well as persistent rainfall will be possible overnight. As the boundary pushes out of the region, also cutting off the low level jet, expecting a bit of a break in the precipitation Monday morning and afternoon. However, will see the ability for instability to build across the region Monday afternoon, as mostly clear skies are expected, especially for areas west of Highway 83. As like most days in the recent pattern, surface dewpoints remain in the upper 50s to 60s across the region, providing ample low level moisture. By late afternoon, may begin to see a few thunderstorms begin to develop across western Nebraska, and given that instability should build throughout the day combined with stronger upper level support, could see a few strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into the evening. Much will depend on the evolving mesoscale environment over the next 24 to 36 hours on how convection plays out. At this time, there does appear to be potential for some large hail and damaging wind gusts, but will continue to refine this forecast as the mesoscale environment changes. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 An upper level trough of low pressure, will traverse south central Canada Monday afternoon into Monday night, forcing a cold front through the forecast area. The latest deterministic NAM12 and GFS solns along with the NBM ensembles indicate a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms across a large portion of the forecast area with the best chances across the west and southwest. The latest NBM ensembles indicate 60 to 70 percent chance of exceeding 0.10" of precipitation Monday night generally west of a line from Gordon to Broken Bow. The NBM forecast for tonight has some high chance and low likely pops in the eastern panhandle and southwestern Nebraska Monday night and this looks on track. The upper level low/trough, will track into the northern Great Lakes Tuesday into Tuesday night allowing the ridge to amplify across the western CONUS. Northwesterly flow aloft will continue into the end of the week with periodic shortwaves tracking across the central plains. This will lead to daily precipitation chances through the end of the period. Temperatures will be coolest in the east and northeast with daily highs in the lower 80s. Across the eastern panhandle and southwestern Nebraska, daily highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 652 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 For the KLBF terminal: Expect scattered to broken clouds today with ceilings ranging from 4000 to 10000 FT AGL. Skies will then begin to clear out by late evening. There is a small threat for thunderstorms this evening. However, given the expected isolated coverage and low forecast confidence, will forgo mentioning the threat with this TAF issuance. For the KVTN terminal: Thunderstorms will be possible through 14z this morning. Ceilings will range from 6000 to 10000 FT AGL today scattering out and lifting to 25000 FT AGL this evening. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Richie LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...Buttler  932 FXUS62 KJAX 231155 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 755 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Daily risk of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms during the. Hazards: Wind Gusts 40-60 mph, Localized downpours. Concern Area: North of I-10 across SE GA && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Highlights through Tonight: - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms south of I-10 this afternoon - Isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorm this evening for southeast GA. The early morning satellite analysis shows the predominant upper level trough axis shifting offshore this morning, with dry northwesterly upstream pushing edging south of the Altamaha river. Derived precipitable water in the drier airmass is ranging from about 1.25-1.5" which equates to about the 10th-25th percentile. As that dry air pushes southward, deeper moisture will be pooled south of I-10 this afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop within and along the edge of the moisture axis during the late morning hours (after 10 AM) with additional waves of convection through the afternoon. Some warming air aloft will keep instability in check this afternoon across NE FL but a few stronger storms, capable of strong gusts, may develop along the pinned Atlantic sea breeze in St Johns and Flagler counties this afternoon. Some training may occur but generally southwesterly storm motion of around 10-15 mph should limit the potential for substantial flooding. Though the dry air will limit much convection throughout the afternoon north of I-10, the latest HiRes ensemble guidance indicates leftover moisture from an ongoing MCS over the lower Mississippi river valley may be enveloped by the westerly flow aloft and transported into SE GA early this evening. This will give a late day window for isolated convection to develop despite the lower level dryness. The interplay between the increase instability and dry air may support strong to severe microburst activity (winds 40- 60 mph) with isolated convection in the SE GA vicinity this evening. The Storm Prediction Center has kept a "Marginal Risk" of severe storms north of I-10 given this potential wind threat this evening. Activity will wane by midnight with dry conditions through the early morning hours Monday. Temperatures will soar into the mid and upper 90s across SE GA this afternoon but drier air will keep heat index generally in the upper 90s and low 100s this afternoon. Though temperatures will be a few degrees lower in NE FL, the moisture in the air will make it feel like 100-106F this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Increase in showers and storms with return of moisture, higher chances heading into midweek. Moisture steadily increases across the area as a trough digs across the southeastern CONUS. PWATs will trend upwards, with values near or above 2", as the mid to upper level trough brings a frontal boundary to skim north of the area over central GA. Light southwesterly flow will persist through the forecast period, with the Gulf breeze steering convective activity from southwest to northeast. With the increase in moisture and forecasted DCAPE values >=1000 J/kg, there will be the potential for some wet downbursts with any storm that develops during the afternoon to evening hours on Monday and Tuesday. Chances of showers and storms increase on Tuesday as coverage of higher PWATs spreads across the area. A bit warmer temperatures on Monday as daytime highs will sit near the mid 90s for most locations. Tuesday, with higher chances of precipitation and cloud cover, a bit 'cooler' temperatures as highs sit in the lower 90s. Overnight lows in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Active weather continues past midweek of the upcoming week Southwesterly flow persists through midweek as a trough remains across the area, with chances of showers and storms in the 25% to 65% each afternoon as shortwaves along the trough will likely bring the chances for stronger convective activity. Will continue to see the Gulf breeze push inland each afternoon, and increase activity near the I-95 corridor as the breezes meet. Highs each afternoon will rise into the 90s. Tropics Outlook: NHC has a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation mid to late week across the central Atlantic. Locally, rip current activity could become more enhanced late week depending on the evolution of this system. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Some lower IFR CIGS across SE GA this morning have slipped in SSI and will linger until 14Z, otherwise VFR across NE FL terminals with deeper moisture sliding south of the I-10 corridor today, so greatest rainfall chances will be at GNV/SGJ and have continued VCSH this morning becoming VCTS with PROB30 of TSRA activity by 16-20Z at GNV and 18-22Z at SGJ. Light W-SW winds will continue through this afternoon except for a SE sea breeze close to 10 knots at coastal terminals. Following afternoon/early evening convection, should become VFR overnight with lingering mid/high clouds and the typical MVFR fog chances at VQQ from 07-11Z. && .MARINE... A stalled front near the Georgia coastal waters will linger through Monday before dissolving through the week. Main maritime concern will be increasing potential for afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day during the upcoming week. The steering winds will generally move thunderstorms from the shoreline toward the offshore waters during the evening hours. Outside of thunderstorm influences, low to calm seas and light offshore winds persist. Rip Currents: Surf/breakers will remain 1 to 2 feet through early next week in the mainly offshore flow with overall low rip current risk, but brief periods of moderate risk will exist during the afternoon hours as local onshore sea breeze develops each day. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Locally High Dispersion Monday For Se Ga West to southwesterly flow continues Today and into midweek across most locations, with east to southeast winds across coastal locations during the afternoon hours as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland. Drier air will bring lower humidity and mostly dry weather during the morning to early afternoon hours across southeast Georgia Today, with showers and storms possible during the late afternoon to early hours, while scattered to isolated afternoon showers and storms will continue across northeast FL. Moisture levels begin to increase next week, with chances of showers and storms increasing through the week. Hotter temperatures Today and Monday will increase mixing heights across southeast GA, with locally high dispersion Monday afternoon. Fog Potential: Significant fog is unlikely, and any strong wind will be associated with nearby thunderstorm activity. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 97 73 96 71 / 10 20 50 30 SSI 91 78 92 76 / 20 10 70 30 JAX 95 75 96 73 / 30 10 80 40 SGJ 91 74 94 75 / 50 10 20 20 GNV 92 73 94 73 / 40 10 30 10 OCF 89 73 94 72 / 60 20 30 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$