156 FXUS62 KTBW 231200 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid conditions will continue. - Onshore flow will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf moving onshore this morning and then shifting inland during the afternoon. && .UPDATE... Issued at 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and move east northeast across the Tampa Bay area and Nature Coast this morning where the deeper moisture, precipitable water around 2 inches, resides. Further south an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out later this morning and early afternoon. The majority of the convection will shift inland and into the eastern half of the Florida peninsula later this afternoon. Made some minor tweaks to rain chances for the rest of today, otherwise forecast looks on track. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect TPA, PIE, SRQ, and LAL through mid-afternoon causing MVFR/local IFR conditions at times. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Southwest to west winds will increase to around 10 knots by this afternoon, then diminish to less than 5 knots later this evening and overnight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Early morning showers and storms over the eastern Gulf will continue to develop and move over the coast before moving further inland through the day. Mid level dry air over SWFL will limit rain chances further south, though an isolated shower or storm can not be ruled out. More mid level dry air moves over the area Monday limiting rain chances further. However by mid week a series of mid level short waves will move over the eastern U.S. adding more moisture through the end of the week, which will help increase rain chances. Typical thunderstorm hazards like frequent lightning, strong gusty winds and heavy downpours could be possible in any storm that develops. Outside of showers and storms conditions will continue to be hot and humid, though below heat advisory levels. High temperatures through the week will be in the low to mid 90s with triple digit heat indices possible each day. && .MARINE... Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Showers and storms over the Gulf this morning will continue to drift onshore and inland this afternoon. Pleasant marine conditions expected away from any shower or storm activity. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Fire weather concerns remain minimal as plenty of low level moisture remains in the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 89 78 91 78 / 50 10 20 10 FMY 94 78 94 78 / 20 10 30 10 GIF 93 74 95 75 / 40 10 20 10 SRQ 90 77 92 77 / 20 10 10 10 BKV 90 72 93 72 / 60 10 30 10 SPG 88 79 90 79 / 50 10 20 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Close DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Carlisle  215 FXUS65 KABQ 231200 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 600 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 541 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Showers and thunderstorms will decrease in coverage today and Monday, then increase in coverage Tuesday through Thursday, with a risk of cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts, and ponding of water on roads. - A risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will develop with storms along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains during the afternoon and evening both Tuesday and Wednesday. - Moderate-to-high heat risk will impact much of central and eastern New Mexico during the first half of the week, then spread to western areas as well during the latter half of the week, as record and near-record high temperatures return each day. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 120 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 With a 597 DAM high pressure system over the state, high temperatures will generally continue to trend upward through Monday, when readings will peak around 5-13 degrees above 1991-2020 averages. Record and near record high temperatures are forecast both today and Monday. The NBM, which did a pretty good job on the high temperature forecast for Saturday, predicts a temperature of 105 F for Roswell on Monday, which is the Heat Advisory criteria for the Chavs County plains. Will let the day shift issue the Heat Advisory for Monday if conditions still look supportive of reaching the criteria there. Otherwise, scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast to return to western and northern areas today and Monday. High res models depict spottier cells developing on the eastern plains as far south as Highway 60 late today, and also in the Albuquerque area in the central valley. Northeast and east central areas should see an uptick in storm coverage on Monday, when a somewhat moist backdoor front will enter from the northeast, while disturbances in northwest flow aloft clip the northeast corner of NM. Bulk shear (0-6 KM) around 25-40 KT and CAPE up to 1800 J/KG should enable a few strong to severe storms to develop on the northeast and east central plains Monday afternoon and evening. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 120 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Models generally depict the center of the ~597 DAM high pressure system aloft varying its position around central and southern NM until Wednesday, when it is forecast to shift over the southwest NM/southeast AZ border through at least Saturday. Disturbances in northwest flow aloft will continue to increase storm coverage over central and eastern areas Tuesday, then over western areas as well Wednesday and Thursday, after moist outflow from storms on the eastern plains pushes its way over western parts of the state. Gulf moisture will increase PWATs over eastern areas to around 1.10" on Tuesday, then around 1.35" on Wednesday, enabling storms to produce locally heavy rainfall with a risk of flash flooding. NBM 90th Percentile QPF indicates a few parts of the northeast plains may accumulate nearly 3 inches of rain Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening, with locally over 1 inch along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and on parts of the east central plains. The increased convection on the eastern plains, and the southwestward migration of the high pressure center aloft, will enable high temperatures on the eastern plains to trend downward during the middle of the week; while remaining a few to several degrees above 30-year averages. Meanwhile, record and near-record high temperatures will persist across central and western parts of the state. On Friday and Saturday, a downtick in storm coverage and rainfall intensity is forecast with each day as the amplitude of the high pressure system over the southwest NM border decreases and a ridge axis extends westward over north TX. The storm track will also become less active, enabling drier and more zonal flow over northern NM. This will enable temperatures to trend upward again on the eastern plains starting Thursday, and over western areas as well starting Friday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 541 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 This afternoon and evening, scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are again expected over northern and western areas, with spottier activity potentially developing as far south as Clovis, Fort Sumner, Clines Corners, Moriarty, and Albuquerque. Storm motion will mostly be toward the east around 10-15 KT. A few of the stronger storms will be capable of producing localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts up to 45 KT. Record and near-record high temperatures will make density altitude and important consideration for aviation operations near complex terrain this afternoon and early evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 120 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Critically low minimum humidities will be pretty widespread over east central areas again today. Sub-15 percent humidities will then shift mainly over central and northwest areas on Monday. Increasing Gulf moisture on the eastern plains during the first half of the week should spread into western areas well with thunderstorm outflows moving in that direction each evening Tuesday through mid week; including moderately strong easterly gap winds below canyons opening into the central valley. Until modest Gulf moisture pushes into western areas mid-week, the size of wetting footprints west of the Rio Grande will decrease with each day today through Tuesday. This will result in an increasing threat of new fire starts as spotty showers and storms return mainly to the mountains each afternoon, and temperatures reach record and near-record readings. Otherwise, the main fire weather concern will be gusty and erratic thunderstorm outflow, which will decrease in coverage with each day through Monday, then increase Tuesday through Thursday, before decreasing again end week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 95 63 94 63 / 10 20 5 0 Dulce........................... 89 50 91 51 / 20 20 10 0 Cuba............................ 88 59 90 59 / 20 20 10 5 Gallup.......................... 91 56 90 57 / 30 20 20 0 El Morro........................ 86 56 87 56 / 30 20 20 5 Grants.......................... 89 57 90 59 / 40 20 20 5 Quemado......................... 87 58 88 58 / 30 10 20 5 Magdalena....................... 89 64 90 64 / 20 10 20 5 Datil........................... 85 58 86 59 / 20 10 20 10 Reserve......................... 94 58 95 59 / 10 10 20 0 Glenwood........................ 99 65 100 65 / 10 10 20 0 Chama........................... 83 51 85 52 / 30 20 30 0 Los Alamos...................... 87 62 88 63 / 40 30 20 10 Pecos........................... 88 60 89 59 / 20 20 20 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 84 55 85 55 / 60 20 30 20 Red River....................... 74 48 76 48 / 40 20 40 20 Angel Fire...................... 81 43 82 43 / 20 20 50 20 Taos............................ 88 54 89 55 / 40 20 20 20 Mora............................ 86 55 86 55 / 20 20 50 20 Espanola........................ 94 60 95 62 / 20 30 10 5 Santa Fe........................ 89 63 90 63 / 20 20 5 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 92 61 93 61 / 20 20 5 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 96 69 97 69 / 10 10 5 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 97 67 97 68 / 10 10 5 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 98 67 99 67 / 10 10 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 96 68 97 69 / 10 20 5 0 Belen........................... 98 66 99 66 / 10 10 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 98 67 99 68 / 20 20 5 0 Bosque Farms.................... 98 65 99 66 / 10 10 0 0 Corrales........................ 98 67 99 68 / 20 20 5 0 Los Lunas....................... 98 66 98 67 / 10 10 0 0 Placitas........................ 94 66 95 67 / 20 20 5 0 Rio Rancho...................... 97 67 98 68 / 20 20 5 0 Socorro......................... 100 70 100 70 / 10 10 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 89 63 90 63 / 20 20 5 0 Tijeras......................... 91 64 92 64 / 10 10 5 0 Edgewood........................ 92 59 93 60 / 20 10 10 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 94 57 95 58 / 20 10 10 5 Clines Corners.................. 89 61 90 61 / 20 10 10 5 Mountainair..................... 92 61 92 61 / 10 10 10 10 Gran Quivira.................... 91 61 92 62 / 10 10 10 10 Carrizozo....................... 94 67 96 68 / 10 10 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 86 62 88 63 / 10 10 10 0 Capulin......................... 88 57 87 57 / 40 30 50 50 Raton........................... 91 55 91 55 / 50 30 60 30 Springer........................ 94 56 93 56 / 40 20 30 20 Las Vegas....................... 90 57 90 57 / 20 20 30 20 Clayton......................... 97 65 96 65 / 40 20 30 60 Roy............................. 94 60 93 61 / 20 30 20 40 Conchas......................... 102 67 101 67 / 20 20 5 30 Santa Rosa...................... 98 66 98 65 / 20 20 5 20 Tucumcari....................... 102 69 101 68 / 20 20 5 20 Clovis.......................... 101 71 102 69 / 20 10 5 20 Portales........................ 101 72 103 70 / 10 10 0 10 Fort Sumner..................... 101 70 102 69 / 20 20 0 20 Roswell......................... 103 72 105 72 / 5 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 98 67 99 67 / 10 0 5 0 Elk............................. 95 64 97 64 / 10 10 5 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...44  136 FXUS63 KJKL 231215 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 815 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Noticeably cooler and less humid air will arrive behind a cold front to start the new week. - Chances for a few showers and thunderstorms return around midweek. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 520 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Early this morning, an enlongated upper low was centered over sections of the Great Lakes with an upper trough axis southeast into the mid OH Valley and Central to Southern Appalachians to the Carolinas with an upper ridge centered in NM with ridging extending across portions of the western Conus into the Central Conus/Plains. Drier air has been gradually moving into the Lower OH Valley and eastern KY behind a cold front though the drier air has made a bit less progress into the more southern and southeastern locations as a ridge of sfc high pressure builds into the Lower OH valley from the mid and upper MS Valley regions. Rather extensive fog mainly in the valleys has spread into some no valley locations. Some observation sites such as KEKQ, KSME, and KI35 have recently reported dense fog and fog appears on the dense side at some KY Mesonet station locations as well as on a few of the KYTC cameras. With that in mind, have opted to issue an SPS for fog over the next few hours for areas generally south and southeast of the I-64 corridor. Today and tonight, gradual 500 mb height rises are anticipated as the upper low meanders to the eastern Great Lakes and sections of the mid Atlantic states and axis of the upper trough remains east of the Commonwealth. At the same time, the sfc ridge of high pressure will build across the Commonwealth and into sections of the mid OH Valley by late tonight. A dry airmass for this time of year will be ushered into eastern KY with PW per the 00Z HREF expected in the 5th to 20th percentile. This will set the stage for not much in the way of cloud cover today other than diurnally driven cumulus following the lifting and dissipation of the fog through the 9 AM to 10 AM EDT timeframe this morning. Mixing should result in dewpoints dropping a bit below NBM deterministic values. This airmass will also be cooler as well as drier and this should support highs around 5 degrees below normal for the day on Sunday. The pattern should again favor valley fog formation along the rivers, larger creeks, and area lakes tonight. The normally colder locations may drop to as low as 52 or 53 tonight with the drier airmass in place with more in the way of solid mid 50s for valleys where fog forms and ridgetop locations on the order of the upper 50s to near 60. On Monday, 500 mb heights should continue a general upward trend as the axis of the upper trough moves further east of the Lower OH Valley and Appalachians and upper ridging centered in the NM vicinity builds in sections of the Central Conus/Plains and toward the MS Valley. One more shortwaves will be moving around this ridging and near the mid MS Valley area by Monday evening. Highs for Monday should be similar to Sunday with northwest to west northwest flow aloft prevailing. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 450 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 The long term period should begin with an upper low centered over Quebec and an axis of an upper trough south into the mid Atlantic states to the Carolinas to VA while an upper level ridge should be centered over NM and extend into portions of the western Conus as well as the Central to Southern Plains/portions of the Central Conus. Also at that point, another upper level low should be near the Saskatchewan and Manitoba border with an associated trough south into the eastern MT and easter WY border area with the Dakotas. Further west, an upper trough is expected to extend from west of the coast of BC to west of the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a frontal zone should extend from the eastern Carolinas across the Gulf coast states into the Southern Plains on Monday evening while a sfc ridge of high pressure should extend for the Appalachians to the western Great Lakes while a low pressure system should be near the Manitoba and Saskatchewan border with a trailing cold front into the Dakotas with the frontal zone extending into the western Conus. From Monday night to Tuesday night, a weak shortwave moving around the ridging over much of the Rockies and into parts of the Central Conus should move through the OH Valley and Commonwealth but it will be moisture starved with mainly just some passing high clouds. Some height rises at 500 mb are progged during the day on Tuesday, before near neutral height tendencies or some subtle 500 mb height falls are forecast for Tuesday night as troughing remains from eastern Canada into the Northeast Conus/eastern seaboard and the upper ridge remains centered in southern NM thought it is progged to build north through sections of the Rockies. Meanwhile the upper low initially just north of ND should trek gradually into Ontario and near the northern Great Lakes. This leaves northwest to west northwest flow aloft across the Commonwealth and Lower OH Valley into the central to southern Appalachians. During this time, a ridge of sfc high pressure will shift across the Lower to Mid MS Valley and Central Appalachians and become centered in the mid Atlantic states by late Tuesday night. At the same time, additional disturbances moving around the ridging centered in NW should interact with the frontal/baroclinic zone initially south of eastern KY with a sfc wave tracking to near the confluence of the OH and MS Rivers late Tuesday night while further east the boundary lifts into the TN Valley as a warm front and approaches. This may lead to a bit of increase in moisture and some cloud cover at mid and high levels late Tuesday night. Sfc high pressure will remain the dominant feature with a drier airmass, with PW on the order of 20th to 30th percentile if not most of the time lower per LREF, in place will allow for lows in the mid 50s to near 60 on ridges and the development of valley fog along the rivers, larger creeks, and areas lakes both Monday night and Tuesday night. Daytime highs on Tuesday trend closer to normal for late August. Wednesday to Thursday night, a shortwave trough from the mid MS Valley to the Ozarks regions should move east into the Lower OH Valley and parts of the TN Valley and SOutheast as an upper low initially over Ontario and the northern Great Lakes weakens as it moves further east and begins to interact and merge with an upper low/trough centered over the Hudson Bay vicinity. This leaves an upper trough axis from the Hudson and James Bay area south across the Central Great Lakes to the OH and TN Valleys to Southeast by late Thursday night. During this period the upper ridge in the western/southwestern Conus becomes centered further west and southeast to the south of the Four Corners region with the axis of the upper ridge extending into the Southern Plains with another axis north and northeast into MT and Alberta and Saskatchewan that shifts east across WY and eastern MT to Saskatchewan. At the same time, an upper low moves into BC with the trailing trough moving into the Pacific northwest and sections of the interior northwest. Meanwhile as the initial shortwave trough moves across the area at midweek the sfc wave should track over or near eastern KY while the sfc low in the Great Lakes reaches the Northeast and sends an associated cold front across eastern KY Thursday. This will lead to isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm potential over eastern KY that may tend to peak on Thursday near and ahead of a cold front. The consensus of guidance is for a return of near normal temperatures. Friday to Saturday, the upper trough axis is progged to shift east with a broad trough in place from Ontario and Quebec into sections of the eastern Conus. Guidance has a trend of rising 500 mb heights and more of a zonal/westerly flow at that point with upper level ridges centered near Bermuda and the southwest Conus to end the period. This will lead to some initial small chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly on Friday afternoon before rising heights likely suppresses convection on Saturday. Temperatures should remain near normal for late August. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Fog lingered at issuance mainly for locations south of I-64 with all but KLOZ and KIOB among the TAF sites affected by MVFR to IFR if not locally lower reductions initially. This fog should lift and dissipate through 14Z, with VFR conditions generally prevailing through the end the period. Valley fog may again develop by the 04Z and 06Z timeframe, and KLOZ and KSME may be affected per guidance with lower confidence for KSJS and KJKL with no reductions for that period included at this point. Winds should average less than 10KT as high pressure settles across the area. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...JP  358 FXUS65 KGJT 231223 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 623 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Monsoonal moisture in place will keep scattered shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast today. - Heavier rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding over burn scars and susceptible terrain. - Temperatures near to around 5 degrees above normal are expected through early next week, followed by a gradual warmup to close to 10 degrees above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1031 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 As the Pacific Northwest trough tracks into Canada, the high centered over the Southern Plains starts to drift back toward the west. As a result, flow aloft shifts from southwesterly to more zonal Sunday, shifting the moisture plume north and east of the region. The best moisture will remain pooled along the Divide, and lingering across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado. Instability will be plentiful, provided morning cloud cover clears early enough. The one thing that will be lacking is upper level support, as the shortwave from today will be well to the east. Instead, orographic forcing will be the primary trigger for afternoon convection, with showers and storms firing off the terrain in the early afternoon. This activity will move off the terrain and over adjacent valleys through the afternoon and evening, but will likely not be as long- lasting as convection this afternoon. Heavy rain remains a concern, as surface levels remain well saturated and mixing ratios of 5-7 g/kg remain. This will keep flash flood and debris flow concerns for sensitive areas, including recent burn scars. Above normal moisture sticks around through the coming week, as the high gradually shifts back into the Desert Southwest. Forcing will be somewhat lacking, with only the occasional shortwave rotating around the periphery of the high. This means that most afternoons will see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms develop over the higher terrain, with occasional periods of more focus convection coinciding with a passing wave. So long as surface levels remain saturated, heavy rain and flash flooding will remain concerns, particularly for sensitive areas. Additionally, gusty outflow winds and lightning will be daily threats. Temperatures will start around 5 degrees above normal, but will gradually warm through the week under the influence of the high. By the end of the coming workweek, look for highs to be 5-10 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 559 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Isolated showers with occasional lightning are moving through northeastern Utah and northwestern Colorado tracking to the northeast with a weak disturbance passing to the northwest. Expect these showers to continue through the morning with convective activity picking up after 18Z over the higher terrain across the region, becoming scattered to widespread through 00Z and diminishing thereafter. These showers and thunderstorms are capable of producing gusty, erratic outflow winds, frequent lightning, and brief heavy rain leading to brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions. Otherwise, winds will be generally light and terrain driven, with mid to high level clouds and VFR conditions through the TAF period. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BGB/TGJT AVIATION...DB  456 FXUS65 KBOI 231227 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 627 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and slightly cooler Sunday, then several degrees warmer again Monday. - A slight chance of thunderstorms along NV border today south of Twin Falls. && .SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday Night/... Issued 338 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026 A weak cold front has moved through the area overnight, bringing drier air into much of the area. Isolated showers and thunderstorms across the Magic Valley and Boise Mountains this morning but will taper off in a few hours as the front moves east. Isolated thunderstorms will redevelop this afternoon across southern Twin Falls County, with gusty outflow winds possible. The ridge will strengthen over the area Monday and Tuesday with slightly warmer temperatures. A pair of weak shortwaves embedded in the southwest flow aloft will bring increased clouds on Monday and Tuesday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will generally be confined to the higher terrain Monday afternoon and again on Tuesday afternoon. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/... Issued 338 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Dry through the long term. A trough off the Pac NW coast pushes the monsoon moisture east on Wednesday with drier air, breezy conditions and slightly cooler temperatures Thursday through Sunday. Temperatures will around 2-5 degrees above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /12Z Sunday through Monday/... Issued 625 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026 VFR. Isolated thunderstorms south of KTWF this afternoon, capable of gusty outflow winds to 40kt. Surface winds SW-NW 5-15kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 10-25 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: NW 5-15kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....KA SHORT TERM...KA LONG TERM....KA  560 FXAK67 PAJK 231256 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 456 AM AKDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - Moderate to heavy rain for Ketchikan, Metlakatla, and Hyder likely for Sunday evening and overnight into Monday. No flooding is expected a this time. - Strongest winds, Sunday into Monday, will be located over the southern panhandle with winds around 25 to 30 kts over Clarence Strait. - Rain rates and winds diminish late Monday into Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM.../Through Monday/...Moderate to heavy rain returns to the southern panhandle today as a low pressure system moves southeastward across the gulf. This low pressure system is currently located over the west/central gulf bringing it's first front, of many, into the panhandle. As of early this morning light rain has begun for both a few northern and southern areas. As this low continues to move to the southeast, rain rates will begin to increase, especially for southern portions of the panhandle. Specifically the Ketchikan, Annette Island, and Hyder areas are likely to see around 2.5 to 3.5 inches of rain in 24 hours, with isolated areas seeing up to or more than 4 inches. There is even a slight chance for the aforementioned areas to see those higher rates to around 4 inches in 24 hours. Heaviest rain is most likely to fall late this evening into early Monday morning. Rain rates during that time are most likely to be around 0.15 to 0.2 inches per hour with a chance of 0.3 inches per hour falling for some locations. Heaviest rain rates for the south will diminish Monday morning. Rain will then continue with periods of moderate rain through Monday afternoon. Overall rain rates will diminish Monday evening into Tuesday. During this time overall winds will remain on the lighter side. An exception to this includes areas of the southern panhandle near Clarence Strait. Late Sunday, as the main front pushes into the southern panhandle, winds will increase with gusts around 30 to 35 mph for Annette Island and Ketchikan. Most other portions of the panhandle will see winds around 10 to 15 mph or less. Similarly to rain rates, overall winds will diminish Monday morning. .LONG TERM...Tuesday a longwave trough will continue shifting southeast toward the west coast of Canada, carrying a weakening surface low with it. Widespread moderate to heavy rain will also break apart from north to south, leaving a short and welcome break Tuesday. Upstream, zonal flow becomes briefly established over the Gulf, with a signal for a shortwave trough digging down from the south- central coast. These features will carry west-northwest onshore flow and some moisture into our area; however, deep moisture will likely shear apart before reaching the Panhandle, limiting heavy rainfall potential into mid week. Anticipate low clouds and more typical rainfall, with the farthest reaches of the northern Panhandle likely enjoying drier conditions. Near the end of next week ensembles show agreement on a larger system moving into the Gulf, bringing increased chances for heavier rain and elevated southeasterly winds along our coast into the weekend. && .AVIATION...A gradual deterioration in conditions is expected across much of the central and southern panhandle this morning as low pressure and a frontal system advance eastward across the Gulf. The heaviest rainfall will likely occur after about 22Z and through tonight with IFR to low MVFR conditions becoming predominant. We will also see some increase in wind speeds for the southern TAF sites. Farther north, ceilings at PAYA have already dropped to IFR at times in rain showers. However, mainly VFR to MVFR is expected to prevail for the majority of the northeast Gulf coast and northern panhandle as the lower cloudiness and organized rainfall remain farther south. && .MARINE... Outer Waters: Low pressure will move across the eastern portions of the Gulf through tonight. In advance of it, winds will become mainly southeasterly and gradually increase. We still expect a weak barrier jet to form along the northeast Gulf coast early today and then slowly weaken. By late afternoon and early evening, winds will generally turn more northeasterly. Around Dixon Entrance, we also expect a rather significant increase in wind speeds to around 25-30 kts, with higher gusts. Seas will also build in that area to around 8 feet before subsiding after 15Z Monday as winds decrease. Inner Channels: Although there continue to be a few differences in the model solutions, especially in regard to the timing of the incoming system and frontal passage, it still appears that the most significant increase in winds will affect mainly Sumner Strait southward. Wind gusts to 35 kt are possible in Clarence Strait tonight with seas forecast to build to 8 feet. As the low pressure and front pass later Monday, winds and seas will gradually diminish. Elsewhere across the inner channels, winds are expected to remain generally 10 knots or less into Monday, except for parts of Lynn Canal where winds around 15 knots are possible at times. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036. && $$ SHORT TERM...EAB LONG TERM...AP AVIATION...MJB MARINE...MJB Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau