941 FXUS61 KPBZ 231702 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 102 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the forecast package are indicated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms through this evening, mainly north of US-422, with very low severe weather potential. 2) Mostly dry through Wednesday. Precipitation chances increase Thursday, with some low-end potential for severe weather depending on future model trends. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Upper level low pressure continues to spin over far southern Ontario, with associated troughing in place over the eastern Great Lakes and the Upper Ohio Valley. Two main vorticity maxima rotate through the flow into tonight - one closer to the Lake Erie shoreline this afternoon and a more vigorous one dropping across our CWA this evening. These will be responsible for continuing the chances for scattered to numerous, but brief, showers and localized thunderstorms through 06Z or so tonight. Coverage appears best with the second wave, with most activity north of US-422. Still, thunderstorms will become a bit less likely with that wave with diurnal stabilization. Chances of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon/evening remain quite low overall. While surface-based CAPE may peak in the 1000-1200 J/kg range this afternoon, particularly north of I-80, drier air above 700mb should limit updraft depth, and 0-6km shear of less than 30 knots will be a detriment to storm organization. Along with downdraft CAPE values of 500 J/kg or less, this suggests that the damaging wind threat is very low. Hail may be observed with a few of the more vigorous cells, but the above parameters point to diameters remaining below severe limits. Precipitation coverage drops off after 06Z with the departure of the second shortwave, but a few isolated showers may continue north of I-80 with continued NW flow off of Lake Erie. KEY MESSAGE 2... Lingering cool advection within northwest flow results in high temperatures around 10 degrees below the daily average Monday while high pressure supports dry weather (save for low probability showers north of I-80). The upper low lifts toward Quebec by Tuesday, while surface high pressure overspreads the region. This continues dry weather through Wednesday, while the rising 500mb heights point to temperatures rising back to close to seasonable levels. The next trough is still pegged by ensembles to arrive Thursday. Timing issues that far out mean that the hazard potential is difficult to ascertain currently. Long- range machine-learning guidance does show a slight uptick in severe weather potential, but this risk will need more time and model cycles to be properly evaluated. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High confidence forecast outside a few hour window this evening where VIS may drop to MVFR from HLG-LBE and points north from a series of upper disturbances. FKL and DUJ will see passing showers off of Lake Erie through this evening as upper air impulses traverse. If those airports are impacted, MVFR VIS perhaps even IFR VIS could occur, otherwise expect VFR weather areawide. One fly in the ointment would be CIGS during the predawn hours /9-13Z/ at DUJ where probs of CIGS < 1KFT reside in the 30% range. For now, given continuity with the LAMP guidance elected to carry IFR clouds, but that could change with future guidance. Highest confidence of airports staying dry the entire forecast are ZZV and MGW. There is a low prob that the terminals from Wheeling - Pittsburgh - Latrobe could see showers between 1-6Z, so added prob30s. Kept them no lower than MVFR with CIG and VIS probs less than 20% of attaining IFR numbers. Gusty west winds willsubside with loss of heating. Wind will pick back up with sustain speeds close to 12 knots from midday Monday on. Gusts are not forecast to be as high Monday as they are today. Outlook... No widespread IFR weather forecast through Friday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CL AVIATION...McMullen  005 FXUS64 KTSA 231703 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1203 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1201 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Temperatures above normal with continued periods of high heat stress will continue through week. The possible exception being around active thunderstorm activity. - Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected through Monday, bringing areas of locally heavy rain and strong gusty winds, but most areas will see only minimal rainfall. - Areas of localized fire weather concerns will persist. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Sunday) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Much of the current night looks to be on the calmer side compared to the last couple of nights, with any overnight shower/storm development confined to parts of southeast Oklahoma in the vicinity of weak low level warm advection. Given the expected lack of much in the way of overnight storm development and corresponding residual cloud cover during the day, warmer conditions are likely on deck for a good chunk of the area compared to Saturday. That being said, some potential for an afternoon increase in cloud cover across parts of northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas, along with low shower/storm chances, will exist, creating a gradient in high temperatures across the area. The NBM high temperatures capture expectations well and will be left alone. Dew point trends are low confidence at this point, with a pocket of higher /mid 70s/ values expected to set up across a portion of east central into northeast Oklahoma and lower values on either side. An initial starting point of the short-term blended guidance through mid morning with a transition to the NBM guidance looks good for the moment. Highest confidence in the aforementioned temperatures and dew points to reach heat advisory criteria heat indices is roughly along and south of I-40, with moderate confidence as far north as Creek/Tulsa/southern Rogers counties. A Heat Advisory will be issued for this portion of eastern Oklahoma as well as the Arkansas River Valley areas in west central Arkansas. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Sunday night into early Monday continues to appear more active than the current night. Low shower and thunderstorm chances will hang on during the evening hours across parts of far northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas, but much greater coverage remains likely after midnight into the daylight hours Monday morning. A disturbance will move through the area on the eastern periphery of the upper level high centered to the west, with development beginning across parts of northeast Oklahoma before extending southeastward across Arkansas before dawn Monday. Some of the recent CAMs keep isolated to shower potential farther west in the area into Monday afternoon. Will not adjust the NBM POPs for this just yet but the trend will need to be monitored and potentially adjusted for. Assuming this westward and delayed trend does not occur, high temperatures across southeast Oklahoma will push 105 in some locations Monday afternoon. A front will move through the area during the day Tuesday, with its progression determining where the hotter temperatures setup and how cool northern parts of the area get. With current expectations, areas south of I-40 will again push 105, with highs across the northern half of the area /only/ in the mid and upper 90s. Heat headlines will be needed in parts of the area both Monday and Tuesday. From mid to late in the upcoming week, the basic weather pattern remains similar, with the upper level ridge centered to the west leading to periods of low shower and thunderstorm chances for some and a corresponding brief period of cooler temperatures. Temperatures on average should be above normal, save for the lucky locations and days with rain and residual cloud cover during the day. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions all sites until after midnight, then any reduced aviation impacts will be dependent on showers and thunderstorms that are expected to develop into ern OK and nwrn AR overnight into Monday morning. Maintained PROB30 groups after 06z nern OK and nwrn AR sites, and continued PROB30 groups nwrn AR sites after 12z, as convection will be slower to clear that area. Extensive mid and high clouds through the period, with generally low level easterly wind. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 96 77 99 74 / 0 30 20 0 FSM 99 76 99 74 / 0 30 30 0 MLC 102 79 104 77 / 0 10 20 20 BVO 94 69 96 70 / 0 40 20 0 FYV 95 71 92 70 / 0 60 40 10 BYV 91 68 90 69 / 20 70 70 10 MKO 97 75 99 73 / 0 30 20 0 MIO 92 69 93 71 / 20 70 30 10 F10 99 76 102 74 / 0 20 20 0 HHW 100 77 103 76 / 0 0 20 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-060-061- 064>067-070-071-073>075-176-272. AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...69  032 FXUS61 KBGM 231704 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 104 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Some minor adjustments to shower coverage and rainfall amounts through Tuesday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers with some lake enhancement are still forecasted through Tuesday. 2) High pressure builds in for a brief lull in wet weather Wednesday, then additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to return Thursday into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Our region will be under a broad trough of upper level low pressure through Tuesday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon should begin to decrease this evening with the loss of instability. Southerly to southwesterly winds should dry things out for most of the night into Monday. However, low level lapse rates should steepen during the afternoon leading to the development of additional scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms by Monday afternoon. Small hail can not be ruled out given the modeled lapse rates. The wind direction should become more westerly to northwesterly later Monday night through Tuesday pulling some lake moisture into the picture and generating lake effect showers across CNY. Rainfall amounts look fairly light with only brief heavy downpours. Temperatures though trend cooler due to the clouds and rainfall with highs barely making 70 and lows in the 50's. Our first real feel of fall this year. KEY MESSAGE 2... A break is modeled Tuesday night and Wednesday as high pressure builds into the area. This still looks short lived as another cold frontal boundary moves through the region Thursday and Friday. Enough lift and moisture should be present ahead of the front for a round or two of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures warm a bit Thursday and Friday into the 80's with the southerly flow. Slightly cooler air and high pressure looks to build into the region next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Showers are still impacting RME early this morning, but should move out by 13z. Lingering MVFR CIGs will be around the region until around 16-18z, when drier mid level air moves in, lifting and scattering the CIGs (to VFR). After the initial trough passage, more scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop late morning and into the afternoon hours. Included PROB30 groups for a chance of tsra at our NY TAF sites (mainly 16-21z today), probabilities were too low to include at AVP at this time. VFR conditions are then expected to prevail over the area this evening into tonight, as the lake effect rain bands stay just north. Southeast winds 5 to 15 kts early this morning are forecast to turn west-southwest later today and increase between 8-18 kts over the area. Winds then diminish below 10 kts heading into this evening and overnight. Outlook... Monday...Scattered showers at the Central NY terminals with associated restrictions possible. Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWG AVIATION...MJM  249 FXUS64 KSJT 231709 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1209 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Big Country, Heartland and Concho Valley areas this afternoon and again on Sunday afternoon. - There is a low (15%-20%) chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms, mainly across the Big Country, this afternoon and evening. - Hot and mainly dry weather will persist through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to our east, but are also winding down late tonight. Expect this trend of diminishing coverage and intensity to continue through the rest of the early morning hours. For today, we will again warm up into the 105 to 110 degree range across areas roughly north of a Mertzon to Junction line, with upper 90s to near 105 for the rest of the area. With that in mind, the Heat Advisory in these areas will continue through tomorrow evening. Although we will approach the 110+ degree mark that warrants in an Extreme Heat Warning north of I-20, we aren't expecting to quite make it there, so will just keep the Heat Advisory going. Lows will continue to be very muggy, only dropping into the mid 70s to lower 80s, and winds will be out of the south at 5 to 15 mph. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Expect hot and dry conditions across the area as a upper level ridge remains in control. Looks like will need Heat Advisories for much of next week across much of the area. Please follow heat safety precautions if you have to be outside during the afternoon hours. Highs will mainly range from the upper 90s to near 110, mainly across the Big Country, expecting to have the hottest temperatures. Also, mostly sunny skies will make it feel even hotter. There is a very low chance for a few showers and thunderstorms by the middle of next week. However, most of the area will remain dry through the long term. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions will remain in place for the remainder of the TAF period. Expect gusty winds at times during the late morning and afternoon hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 81 108 80 106 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 76 105 76 104 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 74 103 72 103 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 77 106 75 105 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 81 108 79 107 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 73 100 72 99 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 76 104 74 103 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan- Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Jones-Mason-McCulloch-Nolan- Runnels-San Saba-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday for Callahan- Fisher-Haskell-Jones-Nolan-Shackelford-Taylor-Throckmorton. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday for Brown-Coke- Coleman-Concho-Irion-Mason-McCulloch-Runnels-San Saba-Sterling- Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...41  476 FXUS62 KTAE 231710 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 110 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Daily chances of showers and storms will continue for the next several days. Overall, rain chances are lowest for today, then increase through the workweek. The strongest storms are expected to produce wind gusts of 40-60 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rain. - Hot temperatures combined with just enough humidity are expected to result in peak heat index values of 108-112F this afternoon across portions of the Florida panhandle and big bend, prompting a heat advisory in those areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 For today, some drier air will make it into our northernmost areas, which will knock a few degrees off the heat index values there this afternoon. In terms of thunderstorm chances, there is still some discrepancy in the hi-res guidance regarding coverage of storms during the afternoon hours. If storms can get going, then there will be strong instability and some mid-level dry air to work with for some strong wind gusts in the strongest storms. The SPC has a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms over a large portion of the area for this afternoon. Otherwise, it will be quite hot with many areas in the mid to upper 90s. Somewhat drier air is expected to limit most heat index values to below 108F, but one exception is expected to be across portions of the Florida panhandle and big bend close to the coast and in the Apalachicola National Forest. In those areas, a heat advisory is in effect this afternoon for peak heat index values of 108-112F. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Heading into the workweek, we'll have a large ridge over the southwest US with weak disturbances riding up and around the ridge. This kind of northwest flow regime aloft can lead to rounds of more organized clusters of showers and storms moving into our area. Thus, rain chances will gradually increase to near or above seasonal normals, but the exact timing of these disturbances is hard to pin down. If organized clusters of storms develop, then the chances for strong to potentially severe storms would increase. We'll have to watch for this potential on Monday in particular. Summertime heat and humidity will continue to roll along with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the 100-110 range each day, hottest across Florida. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Isolated chances for showers/thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly for the DHN, ECP, and TLH terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the night. There is potential for fog development around daybreak for the TLH, VLD, and ABY terminals, as noted by a TEMPO group, however confidence is low to medium. Showers and thunderstorms return tomorrow afternoon, mainly initiating after the end of this TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Gentle to occasionally moderate southwesterly flow will continue over the waters for the next several days. Scattered showers and storms are possible each day, mainly in the overnight and morning hours, decreasing in the afternoon. The main exception will be for any clusters of storms that move off the coast this week during the late afternoon or evening hours. Seas will remain around 1 to 2 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Generally light west to southwest transport winds will continue through the next several days. Dispersions will remain good overall each afternoon, though pockets of high dispersions are possible near the I-75 corridor Monday into Tuesday as mixing heights increase. Isolated storms are possible today with increasing coverage of storms again Monday and Tuesday. Gusty, erratic winds and dangerous lightning strikes will be possible. Some drier air moves into the area today before moistening back up again Monday into Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall over the next several days. If the storms are slow-moving, then they could produce several inches of rain in a short period of time. This would lead to some nuisance to isolated flash flood concerns, particularly is low- lying or poor drainage areas. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 75 95 73 92 / 20 70 40 80 Panama City 79 92 77 90 / 10 40 40 80 Dothan 74 95 72 93 / 20 60 30 70 Albany 73 95 72 93 / 20 40 30 60 Valdosta 74 96 72 93 / 20 60 50 80 Cross City 74 94 73 91 / 10 30 10 60 Apalachicola 79 91 77 89 / 10 30 40 70 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ012>015-027-112-114-115-118-127-326-426. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM....DVD AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...DVD  471 FXUS63 KGLD 231710 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1110 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another chance for storms this evening and Monday afternoon. 1 inch hail and 65 MPH winds are the primary threats. There is a low chance that a supercell may form and produce hail around 2 inches and/or a wind gust up to 75 mph. - Better chance for severe weather on Tuesday, with all hazards possible. - Above normal temperatures through at least mid week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1104 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Thru Tuesday, there is not much change to the overall pattern. An upper ridge remains forecast to be anchored over the southwest and Southern Plains, with upper troughing over the Eastern U.S. This is generally going to keep the area under northwest flow aloft. The only change in the upper pattern is that another trough is forecast to move around the ridge the next few days. This will help supply some chances for storms, especially on Tuesday. Near the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast to move into the area today, then slowly push a bit to the southeast of the area Monday and Tuesday. This is leading to breezy winds for today with winds from the south at 15-20 mph with gusts in the 25-40 mph range. Winds should be lighter the next few days around 10-15 mph as the low is forecast to broaden out a bit. For temperatures, highs are forecast to be in the 90s each day with mid to upper 90s possible tomorrow when the upper ridge is most amplified over the area. Lows should generally be in the 60s, with maybe a few 70s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. In regards to storms, the overall progression and timing will be similar through Tuesday. Storms are forecast to develop west of the area during the afternoon and late afternoon hours each day. The storms would then likely enter the area around 5-8pm MT and try and push east through the area. The main peak in storm intensity would generally be between 5-10pm MT, with severe weather possible mainly in the form of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storm activity could persist through the night each day, but would mostly likely end by 1-4am CT. The storms this evening are forecast to be on the marginal side with an environment that is capped, has effective shear around 20-30 kts, and 1500-2500 J/kg. While supportive of storm activity, most storms will likely pulse up and down with not much to show for it. Still, they may be able to produce 1 inch hail and a few wind gusts around 60 mph. There is, about a 15% chance that supercell is able to form, especially if the environment modifies to have the higher end of the shear and instability values. In this case, be alert for large hail potentially reaching around 2 inches and wind gusts around 70-80 mph. The severe threat looks to largely be confined to counties along the Colorado border, with increasingly stable air to the east and the upstream upper trough lifting more to the north and weakening its influence in the area as the evening goes on. Tomorrow, the shear is forecast to remain around 20-30 kts while the instability and lapse rates are forecast to be a bit lower compared to today. The lesser instability is from the forecast calling for dewpoints to drop into the 50s and low 60s across most of the area. If this happens along the with upper trough sliding along the Northern Plains, the storms would probably move into the area a few hours later (likely closer to 7-9pm MT). They would also be less likely to be severe, though one or two could still produce wind gusts around 60 mph and maybe some hail close to an inch in size. The main concern for this would be if a cluster develops in Western Nebraska and pushes south into the area. Tuesday, dewpoints are forecast to recover with most of the area in the 60s. With instability forecast to be closer to 3000 J/kg, 0-6km shear around 40 kts,and the upper trough moving through the Plains in the northwest flow, Tuesday may have the most support for storm development and strength. The main question seems to be how quickly storms cluster and do they form in the area. If the storms form in the area and/or stay isolated, the risk for large hail above 2 inches increases. Otherwise, the threat for wind gusts around 70 mph would be greater. Strong winds and large hail would be possible either way, but it will be hard for either hazard to reach its full potential without storms being in a certain mode. Another sneaky hazard is the potential for a tornado or two. While the environment isn't very supportive of tornadoes, supercells may be able to briefly produce one. The bigger tornado concern is if a line forms like some guidance is suggesting and sweeps through the area from northwest to southeast. With 0-3km shear vectors forecast to be from the south/southeast at 15-25 mph, a QLCS tornado or two may occur. There is a foil for this in that storms that develop ahead of the main clusters and lines may cause them to become disorganized and fall apart. With this, currently keeping the threat for tornadoes on the lower side, with the greater concern and emphasis on wind and hail. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 251 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Synoptically, the ridge to the west is forecast to mainly remain stationary over the Four Corners region, keeping us in northwesterly flow throughout the period. Guidance indicates the ridge may begin to amplify on Wednesday, and begin to de-amplify come Friday as a trough moves through the US/Canadian Border. Shortwaves are expected to move through the area during the week and into the weekend, increasing precipitation chances. High temperatures for the period will generally remain in the 90s. Wednesday appears to be the "coolest" day, with highs ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s. Friday is forecast to be the warmest, with highs in the upper 90s and the potential for a few locations to reach the low 100s. If the ridge begins to move eastward, then higher than forecasted temperatures could be seen. Winds are expected to remain calm to breezy throughout the period. Precipitation chances are present throughout the period. Wednesday and Thursday hold the highest potential, with PoPs in the 20-50% range, as shortwaves move through the area during the afternoon and evening hours. While instability and shear parameters appear sufficient for severe storms, model guidance suggests some variability in CAPE and shear values, which could lead to less organized storms and reduced severe chances. Precipitation chance then begins to taper off to 5-15% for Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1104 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Winds near the surface are forecast to remain from the south for the first few hours with speeds around 15 kts and some gusts around 20-30 kts. Around 21-23Z, winds should lighten closer to 10 kts with the direction beginning to shift after 03Z. There is a chance that storms move near the KGLD terminal from the west after 04Z. While likely to be sub-severe, a storm or two may be able to produce large hail and a wind gust around 50-60 kts. The storms threat should end by 07Z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...Holdren AVIATION...KAK  323 FXUS64 KMEG 231710 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1210 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Shower and thunderstorm chances increase late tonight into Monday, with no organized severe weather expected. - Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected through midweek. - Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected across the Mid-South for most of the week, but extreme heat is not expected. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A large area of high pressure remains parked over the Desert Southwest with the Mid-South on the eastern periphery. A cold frontal passage that occurred yesterday has cooled temperatures nicely with temperatures running 1-5 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. With a prevailing easterly wind, dry air aloft, expect a pleasant and dry day across the region with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with comfortable humidity levels. Late tonight into early Monday morning, shower and thunderstorm chances will return as a shortwave impinges from the WNW. Due to the timing of the wave, QPF amounts, and advancing cloud cover, there is quite a spread in guidance for projected high temperatures tomorrow. Also due to the aforementioned factors, unless rapid clearing occurs, severe weather should not be a concern, but a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out particularly in the afternoon. Probabilities of receiving 1" or more of rainfall are isolated, but best chances appear to be south and west of the Memphis metro. Tuesday will be a bit warmer and more humid as a warm front lifts north. This will bring increased showers and thunderstorms in its wake. Current probabilities from the LREF show low (20% or less) chances of severe weather ingredients being present, but we will continue to monitor as the forecast evolves. The warm front will not traverse quickly or make it very far north into southern Kentucky, so expect another hot and humid day on Wednesday with isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances. A 'cold' front, associated with a low pressure system moving across the Great Lakes, will sweep across the region on Thursday. While the weekend looks mostly dry following the front, there is no expected seasonal relief, as above-normal temperatures are forecast to persist through the end of August. DNM && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period. The latest hi-res guidance is generating a medium to high signal for SHRAs and isolated TSRAs developing overnight and trekking SSE from JBR towards MEM near daybreak. Due to increased precipitation probabilities, both JBR and MEM have been updated to include VCSH and PROB30 groups. Both MKL and TUP are expected to remain rain-free, with a persistent mid-level cloud deck. Northerly winds this afternoon are forecast to shift easterly tonight and then become light and variable for the remainder of the period. AC3 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Minimum relative humidity will average 35 to 45 percent today. Rain chances increase tonight into Monday morning. Fog should not be a concern due to advancing cloud cover and elevated surface winds. Relative humidity will remain high as rain chances persist through most of the week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...AC3  715 FXUS61 KCTP 231713 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 113 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Added PoPs/raised them for the next several hours based on radar loops/convective development. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unseasonably deep upper low over the Upper Great Lakes today will move Southeast to Lake Ontario by Monday morning bringing another few rounds of showers and thunderstorms, mainly across Northern PA this afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Unseasonably deep upper low over the Upper Great Lakes today will move Southeast to Lake Ontario by Monday morning bringing another few rounds of showers and thunderstorms, mainly across Northern PA this afternoon and evening. Noon update... Plenty of shallow convection out there, now and plenty already south of where the (previously expanded) PoPs lay. NBM PoPs doing especially poorly today with the short convection. Despite their short stature, some are generating some ltg. Likely those would also be making some very small hail. Temps aloft conducive to hail formation. So, as we add some heat to the blyr, we will get CAPEs up and get some taller cells. Those could make severe hail and (less probable) high gusts. MCD from SPC says 20% chc of a watch for our area. Previous... A subtle shortwave trough rotating around the southeast side of the upper low will spark some afternoon/evening showers and TSRA today, followed by only a brief downtrend in convection before a well-defined trough moves SE with its axis near the PA/OH border by shortly after midnight tonight. HREF and SREF MUCAPEs will top out between 750-1000 j/kg with wet bulb zero levels descending about 3-4 KFT to only around 6 KFT AGL across the Northern Mtns this afternoon and tonight. It's almost a slam dunk to see some periods of significant small hail from the stronger low-topped TSRA between 18Z Sun and 00Z Monday across the NW and maybe the Central/Ncent Mtns. SPC has a marginal risk of SVR TSRA for today across all of the CWA except for the southern tier layer of counties. Coincidentally, NBM POPS had to be raised by at least 20 percent (to agree with the SPC outlook) across the Central and Scent Mtns along with much of the Middle and Lower Susq Valley where a relative min of zero to 10 POPs was noted. Luckily, this second and more potent upper trough will be pivoting over the Commonwealth overnight tonight with MUCAPE of only a few hundred J/KG, supporting mainly showers and perhaps a low-topped TSRA or two moving inland from the warm waters of Lake Erie. Maxes only in the 60s and a brisk W wind across the northern and western mtns will make it feel much more like Sept/Oct than mid- Aug. Valley locations will see more sun preceding any convection with high temps reaching the mid 70s to near 80F in the Lower Susq Valley. Similar conditions are expected for Monday with the center of the upper low still hanging around our longitude and only moving slowly poleward. The SHRA/TSRA will likely be confined to only the nrn tier of counties in PA on Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Upper level trough swinging across the area along with a west to southwest flow over Lake Erie resulted in showers across the far northwest this morning. Low over southwestern Ontario. Weather pattern more typical of late September than late August. Winds slowly shifting more from the west now, resulting in the activity pushing more into our area this aft. Most of the activity is in the form of showers, with leading left moving cells on the wind shift line moving over the Finger Lakes. Thus went mainly VCSH, but did target BFD for MVFR conditions. By late afternoon and early evening, activity should taper off, as heating ends. MVFR and IFR conditions across BFD and JST expected overnight with lower CIGS. Fog potential limited with this weather pattern. For Monday, still VCSH possible across the Mtns. Outlook... Tue-Wed...Patchy morning fog, otherwise mainly VFR conditions. Thu-Fri...Chance of showers and storms again. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo AVIATION...Martin  672 FXUS62 KRAH 231712 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 110 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Dense Fog Advisory expired at 9am. * A very limited chance of a shower or storm across southeastern Sampson and Wayne counties this afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 200 AM Sunday... 1) Much drier air works in today and Monday behind a cold frontal passage. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out along the Coastal Plain. 2) Diurnally maximized convection returns to central NC Thursday through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 200 AM Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Much drier air works in today and Monday behind a cold frontal passage. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out along the Coastal Plain. A cold front will be pushing through most of our central NC counties this morning. The front will be slowest to push through the eastern Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Behind the front, northwest downslope flow will aid in dewpoints mixing out and RH levels becoming much more comfortable for late August in the upper 30s to middle 40s percent. It is difficult to tell how low dewpoints may mix out this afternoon, but statistical guidance and HREF suggest perhaps middle 50s in the NW, upper 50s in Raleigh and low 60s in the SE. The one exception may be the southern Coastal Plain, where moisture may hang out with the front slower to edge through. But all in all, a great afternoon to be outside. Lows tonight may bottom out in the low to middle 60s, with a few of our cooler spots dipping into the upper 50s. That lower humidity should continue into Monday, despite highs the next few days in the mid/upper 80s, to near 90 in the south. With the moisture lingering in our far SE today, cannot rule out a stray isolated shower or storm, especially Sampson County, though overall ensembles keep most storms to our east along the coast. Some of the guidance, particularly the GFS, indicate a weak surface wave forming along the front as it stalls out along central SC. This wave is progged in some guidance to track north Monday and perhaps buckle the front back north. This could initiate isolated or scattered storms Monday morning or afternoon, most favored in the Sandhills to the central Coastal Plain. Confidence in this scenario is low but if trends continue, rain chances and clouds may increase in our south and east Monday. KEY MESSAGE 2... Diurnally maximized convection returns to central NC Thursday through the weekend. A closed mid/upper level low over southern Quebec Tues morning will continue to slowly pivot east-northeast as another series of shortwaves parade across Great Lakes and southern Ontario through Fri. Moisture returns in the low lvls as early as Wed, with deeper moisture return on Thurs, although rich tropical moisture appears limited in the mid/upper levels as west-northwest flow persists over the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas. Nevertheless, this should support diurnally driven convection as surface dew points in the 70s return and PWAT values rise back to around or slightly-above normal into the weekend. There may be some mixing out of dew points each afternoon, especially over the Piedmont back into the 60s which may limit the moderate instability to the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Thurs appears to have the best chance for measurable precipitation with neutral H5 height tendencies and potential influence from any MCV's from upstream convection over the Ohio Valley. Reasonable high- end totals for any given area will be around 1" to as much as +2" based on the 12z LREF. However, these amounts will not occur everywhere, as is the nature of summertime convection, with most locations likely to receive somewhere between trace amounts to 0.5" between 8 AM Thursto 8 AM Fri. For now, no widespread concern for excessive rainfall is expected through the forecast period. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 110 PM Sunday... High confidence of fair weather and VFR conditions through the afternoon and evening hours across central NC, after midnight there's a limited chance of some scattered VSBY restrictions in the far southeast. Fog and stratus earlier this morning has lifted and mixed out yielding mainly clear skies with some areas of cumulus clouds early this afternoon. The cumulus are most widespread across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills in a region of lingering moisture with bases of 3-4kft with other cumulus clouds moving off the Blue Ridge into the Triad region. There is a very limited chance that a shower or thunderstorm could develop and move across Cumberland, Sampson and Wayne counties between 18 and 23Z, mainly southeast of the KFAY terminal but the probabilities are 15% or less and will exclude from the TAF. Quiet and dry weather is expected this evening with mainly clear skies and no restrictions. While most of central NC will have no restrictions overnight, there is a limited, perhaps 20-30% chance of some shallow flog to develop across the Sandhills and the southern Coastal Plain overnight. Confidence is limited and the only terminal potentially impacted would be the KFAY terminal with the best chances of restrictions from 08 to 12Z. An upper air disturbance will approach the area on Monday and could trigger a rogue shower or storm across the Coastal Plain on Tuesday afternoon. A southeast advancing but slowing cold front has move into the Coastal Plain and the winds across central NC have largely become northwest at 5 to 10kts. A few gusts of 15-18 kts are possible this afternoon, mainly in the northern Piedmont and especially in the Triad. Winds will decrease early this evening and be light for much of the night if not becoming calm toward daybreak. Outlook: A stalled front across the Coastal Plain could produce some isolated storms near KFAY/KRWI Monday afternoon. As the air mass becomes gradually more moist over the outlook period, the risk of scattered afternoon and evening storms will gradually increase, with the greatest chances on Wednesday and especially Thursday. There will also be an increase risk of late night and early morning fog and stratus, especially across eastern and southern locations. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kren/Swiggett AVIATION...Blaes  717 FXUS63 KFGF 231713 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1213 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Hail to the size of golf balls and wind gusting to 70 mph will be the main threats. && .UPDATE... Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Patchy fog has developed over parts of northwest MN, but impacts have been very brief/localized in the KTVF area. I can't rule out other fog impacts during the morning period due to broad surface ridging and near calm winds along/east of the RRV, however the saturated layer is very shallow and tendency will be for highly localized pockets of ground fog. Looking ahead to Monday's severe chances: There has continued to be a trend over the last 24hr on guidance favoring the frontal zone pushing into our CWA during the afternoon. While larger scale forcing is primarily in Canada or mainly during the late evening/overnight, there should be enough lift associated with the front to support a few thunderstorms potentially initiating during the favorable afternoon/evening period when SBCAPE/DCAPE could be maximized near the frontal zone. Due to increasing mid/upper level flow effective shear values greater than 35kt+ are advertised with generally straight hodographs supportive of splitting supercells. Discrete cells could support sig hail potential, though with shear profiles orientation in relation to the cold front mergers may be more likely if coverage increases. Higher DCAPE and mix layers higher gusts could accompany RFD's, though weaker 0-3km shear lowers confidence in a larger sig wind threat. The best chance for thunderstorms is actually later as the main wave passes to the north in Canada and better forcing moves through our region. If thunderstorms fail to initiate early on, the tendency would be for lower impacts from thunderstorm activity that would be much more elevated in nature later in the evening/overnight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...Synopsis... Northwest flow prevails through the forecast period, with the passage of several shortwaves. A weak system moves into central and southeast North Dakota on Sunday, with low chances for a passing afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Best chances will be further west, however. A better chance for showers and storms will occur late Monday into Tuesday, when a stronger shortwave moves southeast out of Manitoba and into northwest and north central Minnesota. This will bring us a chance for isolated severe thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Moving into Tuesday, parts of northwest Minnesota could see an additional round of showers as weak shortwave activity continues. H5 ridging over the western CONUS is expected to flatten, thus weakening our northwest flow heading into the second half of next week. Ensemble guidance suggests additional rain chances as we head into Friday and Saturday, but will ultimately depend on the speed and progression of antecedent shortwave activity and shifts in the overall pattern. ...Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Late Monday... There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into the evening as a moderately strong shortwave pushes across the area. Steep low and mid level lapse rates will be in place during peak heating, with a cold front approaching from the northwest. Modeled surface CAPE ranges from 1500 to 2500 J/Kg across various ensembles and deterministic NAM/NAM Nest. Low to mid level shear is marginal, especially further ahead of the cold front. Hodographs, however, are relatively straight and have a degree of consistency in model soundings. If storms are able to form, there should be just enough shear toallow a mention of supercells, with a chance for splitting supercells or hybrid clusters. In a higher impact scenario, supercells form, bringing potential hazards including wind gusts upwards of 75 mph and large hail to the size of golf balls. If atmospheric support shifts more towards clusters, the potential hazards could include wind gusts upwards of 70 mph and hail up to the size of ping pong balls. Alternatively, in a lower end scenario, storms form later in the evening and severe storms become less likely, but could still support elevated hail producing storms during the late evening and overnight. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the period at all TAF sites. Besides a few high clouds and mid level cumulus, mostly clear skies are expected through much of the afternoon and evening. Winds remain generally light, ranging from 5-12 knots, but will increase slightly overnight into Monday morning. For KDVL, low rain chances remain in the forecast overnight; however, better chances for showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...DJR DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...Lynch  732 FXUS63 KLSX 231713 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 1213 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will remain in the 80s across most of the area this week with relatively low humidity. While there are intermittent low chances for rain, the weather should be dry for the majority of the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A ridge of high pressure extending south from Canada into the Mid Mississippi Valley will control our weather today. Light northwest flow at the surface will keep temperatures 3-5 degrees below normal in the low to mid 80s, as well as allow relatively dry air to continue to filter into the region. The ridge will drift east tonight, and winds will become light and variable, and then turn to the south-southwest along and east of the Mississippi. Forecast soundings suggest there will be intermittent mid and high ceilings moving into the area from the northwest during the evening. However, there should be sufficient time with clear to scattered clouds that radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop to near the dew point in the mid 50s to low 60s in most locations. Slightly warmer temperatures in the mid 60s are likely in central Missouri where the wind turns back to the south earlier and there will likely be more clouds. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The general long wave pattern remains in place through next week with a ridge over the Intermountain West and a trough extending south from Canada through the Great Lakes Region into the Southeast U.S. The trough attenuates somewhat early in the week allowing the ridge to build eastward a bit which will warm temperatures from the low 80s on Monday into the mid and upper 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. Deterministic guidance shows two weak short waves moving across the Mississippi Valley Monday and Tuesday. While these waves are weak and fast-moving, they do force some weak low level cyclogenesis over the Plains which turns 805mb flow to the southwest over Missouri. The southwest flow produces some modest moisture convergence but relatively dry southeast surface flow from the retreating high over the Ohio Valley will undercut this moisture convergence. Models spit out some light QPF which grazes central and some of eastern Missouri, but the chance that much measurable rain will reach the ground looks low due to the dry low levels. A more substantial short wave dives through the Midwest Wednesday which pushes a cold front through Missouri and Illinois Wednesday night. Guidance is inconclusive on precipitation chances as the front moves through low level moisture return looks limited ahead of it. Regardless, the short wave briefly re-amplifies the eastern long wave and front brings slightly cooler air into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Temperatures fall 2-5 degrees for the end of the week back into the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Light northwest winds continue this afternoon under some scattered cirrus clouds. Calm conditions tonight will lead to strong cooling. Valley locations have the best potential to fog if higher level cloud cover does not get more widespread. Synoptically, fog would be most likely at JEF where moisture depth is a bit greater, but that's also where cirrus clouds are most likely. SUS and CPS would also have a good chance to see fog by morning with less potential for cirrus to interfere. Any fog should burn off by 1330Z yielding VFR conditions again tomorrow. Winds will be very light but turning more southeast on Monday. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Carney LONG TERM...Carney AVIATION...Kimble  745 FXUS64 KLUB 231713 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1213 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1211 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Record breaking high temperatures possible Sunday and Monday. - Stronger breezes and low RH values will bring elevated fire danger on Sunday and Monday afternoon. - Storm chances return each day next week beginning Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Showers continue to dissipate across the region. These showers are expected to clear the area in the next couple of hours. Current radar imagery shows the outflow that pushed southwest across the forecast area through the evening has mostly exited the region. Once the showers clear and the outflow exits to forecast area, the rest of the overnight period will be quiet. Light winds will vary between south to southwest through the overnight hours. Lows remain unseasonably warm in the 70s across the region. Some localized areas may only reach as low as the lower 80s. Sunday will be another hot one. On the upper levels, ridging will remain over the forecast area as an upper trough dominates eastern CONUS. A secondary upper trough will swing onshore over the Pacific Northwest. Thickness increases below the the ridging will increase temperatures a couple degrees compared to today. Temperatures on the Caprock will reach up to 106 degrees. Temperatures off the Caprock will range from 106 up to 113 degrees. Tying the record daily high temperature will be possible at both KLBB and KCDS. The previous record for KLBB is 106 degrees set in 2024. The forecast high for Lubbock is 105 degrees. The previous record at KCDS is 111 degrees set in 2024 with a forecast high of 110 degrees. Due to the hot temperatures, a Heat Advisory is in effect Sunday from noon until 8 PM for the eastern South Plains and southern Rolling Plains. At the same time, an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect Sunday from noon until 8 PM for the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains. South to southwesterly winds are expected to pick up during the afternoon hours around 15 to 20 mph. With RH values reaching as low as 15 percent across the region and breezy winds, elevated fire conditions are expected across the entire forecast area. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect for the far southern Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and Rolling Plains from noon until 8 PM. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Sadly, the hot temperatures are here to stay for the first part of the long term forecast. Not much change to the upper pattern for Monday with the upper ridging remaining over the region. Thickness increases will increase high temperatures a couple more degrees for Monday. Areas on the Caprock can expect high temperatures around 105 degrees. Areas off the Caprock can expect highs up to 113 degrees. Highs on Monday could possibly break the daily record high at both KLBB and KCDS. The upper ridging will begin to retreat southwest on Tuesday bringing northwesterly flow aloft. A couple embedded shortwaves will bring thunderstorm chances each late afternoon and evening everyday through the weekend. With the retreat of the upper ridging, we will see a cool down in high temperatures, however not by much as highs through the week remain forecasted in the upper 90s to triple digits. By the weekend, models indicate the upper ridging will begin to flatten and expand east back over the region possibly warming up temperatures to Heat Advisory (105-109 degrees) level again. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR will prevail across the region over the next 24 hours. Some low-end southwesterly LLWS may develop late tonight, but this potential is too marginal to mention in the TAF at this time. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-030>032- 035>038-041>044. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026- 031-032. Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ024>026- 031-032-037-038-042>044. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ029-030- 034>036-040-041. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...30  648 FXUS65 KPIH 231712 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1112 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storm Prediction Center has areas of marginal chance and slight chance of severe thunderstorms for today and tonight. - Thunderstorms have less chance of occurrence, but greater severity potential today. - Breezy conditions in the central Idaho mountains and Snake River plain today, even outside thunderstorm activity. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 138 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Southwest upper level flow will continue to bring moist and unstable air into the forecast area. SPC now has an area along the UT border that has a slight chance of severe thunderstorms, meaning large hail or gusts in excess of 50KT/58MPH. The marginal contour around it also covers a large amount of the forecast area. It mainly leaves out the central Idaho mountains, which are in general thunderstorm forecast area. The coverage of thunderstorms shrinks on Mon and Tue. The best thunderstorm coverage Mon is expected to be the highlands along the UT and WY borders. Then on Tue it shift to the north along the MT border. Cloud cover actually decreases in the late morning, which is what allows enough destabilization to increase the intensity if not the coverage of the thunderstorms. Afternoon highs will be cooler today after the cooler air moved in during the evening and late night hours last night. The final thing is that a low moving onshore and through southern Canada will push up the upper level wind over the central Idaho mountains and the northern part of the Snake River plain. This will bring G25KT to G30KT on the ridges in the central Idaho mountains, and G25KT to locations like Rexburg and Idaho Falls and the Arco Desert. Tuesday should be breezy to windy once again. For the extended period, either a partial breakdown of the upper level ridge from a trough coming from the west or at least a flattening of the ridge over Idaho should continue the not as hot temperatures with dry westerly flow suppressing showers and thunderstorms, especially after Wed. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1107 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Today's rounds of showers and thunderstorms will mainly affect areas along and south of the Snake River. We carried over PROB30 with MVFR and gusts to 50kts from the previous forecast, with SUN not seeing any development at this point. This should continue into the early to mid evening hours before tapering off. There COULD be some showers pushing far enough north tonight and Monday morning to impact BYI and PIH, but for now we are keeping that out of this round of TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 138 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Abundant lightning yesterday over receptive fuels had at least several starts. The lightning show continues today, but in lower coverage or probability of occurrence. Best coverage will be along the WY border region of the Eastern Idaho Dispatch AoR. Over a good portion of that Dispatch area and the Southern Idaho Dispatch area the expectations are few thunderstorms, but much stronger in intensity, with solid chances of severe strength thunderstorms in both regions. Much of the Central Idaho dispatch area has only general thunderstorms, with the eastern areas getting closer to the marginal risk of severe storms. Cooler air has moved in, but this will be partially offset in western areas by the strong sunshine with less cloudiness. Some lower elevation areas will see humidity readings drop below 15 percent, but it is low elevations from Salmon to Challis where that occurs, where wind will be somewhat lighter. A low moving across the continent from west to east will increase wind today for the central Idaho mountains and portions of the Snake River plain. Critical fire weather conditions will be very close in that Salmon to Challis corridor, but otherwise not expecting anything close to critical. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Messick AVIATION...Keyes FIRE WEATHER...Messick  856 FXUS63 KABR 231715 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1215 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 40-50% chance for showers and thunderstorms during the day today across south central SD, expanding over north central SD to northeastern SD/west central MN this evening into the overnight. - There is a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) across central SD and a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) over much of northeastern SD this evening. The main concerns will be golf ball size hail, wind gusts exceeding 60 mph, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall. - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather Monday night. Threat include one inch hail and 60 mph. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Updated aviation discussion below. UPDATE Issued at 835 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Updated the forecast this morning by reducing pops into the early afternoon hours. Showers and storms over south central SD continues to push southeast, with limited development further north. Shortwave activity in eastern Montana is our next focal point for convection over ND late this afternoon. If these storms develop, the could track southeast into the CWA mainly after 0Z. Will update the forecast further once 12Z data comes in. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 119 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the 50s with winds out of the northeast to east at less than 10 mph. Winds are expected to move around to be out of the south to southeast after sunrise. There is a 35-50% chance of some showers in central SD early this morning which will move east across the forecast area throughout the day. Our next chance for precipitation will be today with showers starting in south central SD this morning. The NAM Nest is the most excited about this event as it keeps showers and storms in south central SD until mid afternoon while most other CAMs have a bit of a dry spell during the late morning into the afternoon. The next round moves into north central SD later in the evening, generally after 7 PM CDT. These will move in a generally east to southeast direction, spreading into northeast SD through the late evening and into the overnight hours, potentially even into the early morning hours for east central SD (around Watertown). There is a Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) across central SD and a Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) across most of northeast SD with main hazards of 1.5 inch hail, wind gusts of 60-70 mph, and brief heavy rainfall. MLCAPE Sunday evening is around 1000-1200 J/kg, increasing to about 1500 J/kg Monday, where there is also a Marginal Risk with hazards of 1 inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts. Storms Monday look to last into the early morning hours of Tuesday. An area of high pressure moves in for the middle of the week and storm chances return for the end of the week into next weekend. Temperatures still remain around average for this time of year with highs in the upper 70s to 80s. Not really anything in the way of smoke is expected for the next couple days. Winds across south central SD could be a little stronger today, gusting up to 30 mph at times. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Prevailing VFR conditions can be expected for all terminals through the valid taf period. Later this evening, showers and thunderstorms may track southeastward across the area, with KMBG having the best potential of seeing thunderstorms. Overall, confidence remains low with timing and areal extend of precipitation. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...17 DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...17  857 FXUS64 KHUN 231716 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1216 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1008 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - There are low to medium chances of thunderstorms for much of next week. However, timing and impact confidence remains low at this time. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1008 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Nice start to this morning with current temps in the 70s and sunny skies. The weak cold front will continue pushing southward across the state, keeping us in a drier airmass today. With sfc high pressure pushing into the region from the Midwest, and northwesterly flow aloft, we will see dry conditions under mainly sunny skies. Daytime highs will be seasonable in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Tonight will be really nice as temps fall into the low to mid 60s under partly cloudy skies. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 1008 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 We will start out the week with an upper level low centered in Quebec, a ridge centered in the southern Rockies but amplified up into the Northern Plains and another upper level low in Saskatchewan. Sfc high pressure will continue to push southeastward into the region and keep an MCS dropping out of the Central Plains on Monday to our west. The TN Valley will have a much needed break from the heat and humidity on Monday as daytime highs reach the upper 80s and dewpoints only in the 50s-60s! On Tuesday, a sfc low in the Southern Plains will help return moisture to the region and lift a warm front northward through the day. Could see a few showers/storms return to the far west portion of the CWA on Tuesday otherwise it will be moreso Tuesday night for everyone. Still stuck in this northwesterly flow pattern, a disturbance will slide into the TN Valley on Wednesday, increasing POPs from low chances (20-40%) during the day to to medium chances (50-60%) by Wednesday night. Daytime highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s on both Tuesday and Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 We will continue to be in a northwest flow regime aloft for most of the long term period. However, by Saturday, this pattern begins to break down as the upper trough to the north/northeast flattens and the upper ridge over the Desert Southwest flattens as well and pushes farther east into the ArkLaTex. A lingering surface boundary will also persist over the Southeast into Thursday before what looks like a reinforcing cold front swings through. By late week and into the first part of next weekend high pressure builds over the Appalachians and Ohio Valley. Overall, highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s will be common through the period. In addition, the above pattern will lead to daily chances of showers and storms from Tuesday through Thursday at least. Expecting lower chances come Friday/Saturday. The best chances look to be during the afternoon and evening hours, during peak heating when storms can take advantage of the greater thermodynamics in place. Ample instability in addition to bulk shear between 20-30 knots, 0-3km lapse rates between 7-8 deg C/km, along with DCAPE around or above 1000 J/kg, will warrant us keeping an eye on the forecast for at least strong to severe downburst potential Wednesday and Thursday. As has been the case recently, the main hazards are likely to be damaging winds, frequent lightning, and perhaps some hail (but freezing levels may be too high). As for heavy rain and flooding concerns, this will need to be monitored as well, since most PWATS are generally between 1.7-2.0 inches Tuesday through Thursday. These values are between the 75th and 90th percentiles when compared to BMX Sounding Climatology, which means that showers and storms will be efficient rainfall producers. Stay weather aware especially if you work outside or have outdoor activities and check back for forecast updates! && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for KHSV and KMSL. This evening there will be an increase in upper level clouds then after midnight an increase in mid level clouds that should become broken in coverage, but remain VFR. Winds will range from 340-020 at 5-10 kts today, then veer after sunset to the NE but remain light. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...JMS SHORT TERM....JMS LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...JMS  949 FXUS63 KFSD 231719 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1219 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The next better chance for showers and storms across a wider part of the area is tonight (50-70%). Locally heavy rain and isolated severe storms are possible. - Otherwise most days through next week will see highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 415 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Forecast remains on track this morning with an area of light showers and trailing thunderstorms moving slowly east across south-central South Dakota. Instability is limited east of the Missouri River until mid-late afternoon, so anticipate general weakening as activity attempts to move east this morning. Still seeing some signals in 00Z/06Z guidance pointing to a potential for locally heavy rainfall tonight. The question is exactly where it may materialize as there has been little run to run consistency showing where a line of slow-moving/training storms may set up. Some solutions place this near to just north of the Missouri River, while others shift the risk farther south into north-central Nebraska. This leads to a lower confidence forecast for tonight, both in terms of the isolated severe risk and heavy rain potential addressed in previous discussions below. Issued at 845 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 No major changes to the forecast tonight and tomorrow. Mid to high level clouds are moving into south-central South Dakota associated with our next weak wave moving in. These clouds will continue pushing east-southeastward through the night, and the aforementioned wave will help set off some showers and weak thunderstorms starting in south-central South Dakota early tomorrow morning with this activity gradually spread east- southeastward through the day on Sunday. As it moves eastward, it will outrun any appreciable instability and become just hit or miss light showers/sprinkles as it approaches I-29. Heavy rain looks to be the main threat heading into Sunday night as the low level jet kicks up and sets off more elevated thunderstorms with the aid of an upper wave moving in from the northwest. With the potential of multiple updrafts going up around the same time, there will be plenty of competition for the strongest updraft and this will help limit a severe weather risk. However, if one or two storms can go more isolated and become a more dominant updraft, then perhaps some large hail will be possible given effective shear values around 40-45 kts. Freezing levels will be quite high though, so even if an updraft can sustain itself, hailstones will have a pretty deep warm layer to go through before it were to reach the surface. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 142 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 A quiet night is ahead as high pressure drifts east. Southerly flow will develop in central SD later tonight and become more established across the area through Sunday. The light winds will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 50s, especially east of I- 29. The upper level wave responsible for the low level winds turning southerly will move into central SD tomorrow morning, and eastward and southeast from there through the day. With fairly stout low to mid level dry air, mainly an increase in cloud cover is expected through the morning. The exception will be south central SD where enough moisture may allow for 500-1000 J/kg of elevated CAPE, which will support some spotty showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather is not expected. Lift will gradually increase through the day into Sunday night, when a moderately stronger LLJ focuses on the area. Given fairly weak shear and CAPE values generally under 1000 J/kg, severe weather looks unlikely. However with a freezing level around 13 kft, locally heavy rain will be possible. Not much agreement on the location of the heavier rain with the models pretty inconsistently placing the mid level wave across the area. Some hints that the LLJ will focus somewhere on the SD side, but confidence is low. This wave moves out of the area on Monday but another weaker wave moves by to the north on Monday night and brings a small increase in warm air advection, which could spark a few showers and thunderstorms. Mainly northwest flow aloft continues Tuesday into next weekend. This will bring periodic small chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the week with little agreement on exactly when. Otherwise lows should mainly be from the mid 50s to mid 60s with highs in the 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The main concern this TAF period will be the chance for showers and storms. While isolated to scattered, the better chances will be from about 3z to 12z with the better chances south of I-90. With any thunderstorms and near any thunderstorms, brief MVFR conditions will be possible. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JH/Samet DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...08  930 FXUS63 KLBF 231718 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1218 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist across north central Nebraska this morning into the afternoon. This will mainly be areas east of Highway 83. While severe weather is not expected, locally heavy rainfall is possible. - Periodic disturbances will cross an upper level ridge, leading to near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Saturday. - Ridging will amplify across the western CONUS middle to the end of the week, allowing cooler air to back into eastern and northeastern portions of the forecast area. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Showers and thunderstorms driven by the low level jet overnight will continue to persist through the morning across portions of western and north central Nebraska, with the bulk of precipitation remaining east of Highway 83. This southerly to southeasterly push from the low level jet will help maintain dewpoints in the 60s across the region, continuing to provide ample surface moisture. Additionally, seeing some moisture advection aloft maintaining fairly moist profiles through the atmosphere. CAM guidance suggests PWAT values today around 1.5 inches, which is not too far off the 00z LBF sounding showing 1.39 inches from yesterday evening. This abundance of moisture will support a risk for locally heavy rainfall, as well as continued showers and thunderstorms. By the afternoon, as an upper level shortwave tracks across western South Dakota, expecting a weak boundary to track across the region. Guidance highlights this best with a wind shift around 850 mb coinciding with a theta-e gradient at the surface. This should be just sufficient enough to continue showers and thunderstorms across eastern portions of the region this afternoon, mainly east of Highway 83 and most likely even east of Highway 183 in north central Nebraska. With this relatively persistent signal for rain, as well as potential for heavy rainfall at times, WPC has put eastern portions of the CWA under a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall. With this persistent rain and cloud cover, will be very hard to build any meaningful instability across eastern portions of the region, so believe the severe weather risk will remain low today. Behind the precipitation, while some instability may build, expecting more stable conditions in the environment which will likely limit shower and thunderstorm potential. Additional low level jet forcing Sunday night may bring even more showers and thunderstorms across portions of north central Nebraska, again remaining mostly east of the Highway 183 corridor. Again, not expecting that the environment will be supportive of severe weather, but locally heavy rainfall as well as persistent rainfall will be possible overnight. As the boundary pushes out of the region, also cutting off the low level jet, expecting a bit of a break in the precipitation Monday morning and afternoon. However, will see the ability for instability to build across the region Monday afternoon, as mostly clear skies are expected, especially for areas west of Highway 83. As like most days in the recent pattern, surface dewpoints remain in the upper 50s to 60s across the region, providing ample low level moisture. By late afternoon, may begin to see a few thunderstorms begin to develop across western Nebraska, and given that instability should build throughout the day combined with stronger upper level support, could see a few strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into the evening. Much will depend on the evolving mesoscale environment over the next 24 to 36 hours on how convection plays out. At this time, there does appear to be potential for some large hail and damaging wind gusts, but will continue to refine this forecast as the mesoscale environment changes. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 An upper level trough of low pressure, will traverse south central Canada Monday afternoon into Monday night, forcing a cold front through the forecast area. The latest deterministic NAM12 and GFS solns along with the NBM ensembles indicate a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms across a large portion of the forecast area with the best chances across the west and southwest. The latest NBM ensembles indicate 60 to 70 percent chance of exceeding 0.10" of precipitation Monday night generally west of a line from Gordon to Broken Bow. The NBM forecast for tonight has some high chance and low likely pops in the eastern panhandle and southwestern Nebraska Monday night and this looks on track. The upper level low/trough, will track into the northern Great Lakes Tuesday into Tuesday night allowing the ridge to amplify across the western CONUS. Northwesterly flow aloft will continue into the end of the week with periodic shortwaves tracking across the central plains. This will lead to daily precipitation chances through the end of the period. Temperatures will be coolest in the east and northeast with daily highs in the lower 80s. Across the eastern panhandle and southwestern Nebraska, daily highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue this afternoon into tonight east of the KLBF and KVTN terminals. Other isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and evening across the western Sandhills, and are expected to remain west of the terminals. At KLBF a southeast wind with gusts to 25KT are expected until 00Z, with light southeast winds below 12KT after 00Z and overnight. At KVTN, a southeast wind with gust to 25Kt this afternoon and evening, with a light southeast wind after 05Z. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Richie LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...Roberg  093 FXUS63 KDLH 231721 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1221 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The next chance for showers and storms will be late Monday night through Tuesday. - Severe storms are possible, particularly Tuesday afternoon and evening with the passage of a cold front. - Seasonal, dry conditions return for the later part of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Surface high pressure settling into the area this morning has made good radiational cooling conditions across the Northland. Fog has already developed in a few of our more fog prone locations this morning, and we are likely to see additional development through early Sunday morning. Any morning fog will quickly burn off after sunrise on Sunday, giving way to a very pleasant and quiet late August day. The high pressure will providing mostly sunny skies and light northwest winds. Minimum relative humidity values will dip into the 30 to 40 percent range during the afternoon hours. Tonight will feature another round of mostly clear skies and chilly overnight low temperatures in the forties with a few locations possibly dipping into the upper 30s. Late Sunday night into Monday daytime, we will have a leading wave of elevated warm air advection and a warm front pass west to east across the area. Some models are producing showers and storms with it, but the low level dry air appears to be too stout to allow any precipitation to reach the ground. Also, most models are completely dry for us on Monday, and have decided to leave the forecast dry for now. I do expect an increase in cloud cover and perhaps some elevated radar echoes, but that dry air is likely to keep the low levels dry. Precipitation chances increase as the main upper level shortwave moves across the area late Monday night through Wednesday. Monday night into early Tuesday we have some elevated instability, so we will likely have some rumbles of thunder overnight, but am not concerned for severe storms. We do have an area of Marginal severe risk just to our west from SPC, but suspect this may shift farther west based on the latest models. If we get any strong storms, they would be towards Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be warm and more humid, with some surface based instability developing during the afternoon and evening hours. Then, just as the upper level shortwave moves across the area and deep layer shear parameters increase, I expect another wave of showers and thunderstorms to move through the area, which will have the potential for strong to severe storms. While things look interesting now, we will have to monitor for timing or other changes that may change this. Showers and non-severe storms will redevelop across the area on Wednesday in the cyclonic flow behind the upper level shortwave. Wednesday and Thursday will be cooler again. The cyclonic flow may help to generate isolated showers again on Thursday, though the incoming dry air may quash them. We currently have a dry forecast, but if we have a bit more moisture, that may change. High pressure and northwest flow aloft return for the latter portions of the work week, bringing a return to dry conditions across the Northland for Thursday into Friday. Precipitation chances remain below fifteen percent through the end of the period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Surface high pressure over the region leading to light winds and diurnal cumulus. Widespread VFR conditions persist through the day and night. The exception to this may be a brief instance of fog in the tomorrow morning at HIB/HYR. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 140 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Northwest winds gusting up to twenty knots will ease overnight into Sunday morning over the nearshore waters of western Lake Superior, with waves subsiding to one to two feet. Winds to become light and variable during the day on Sunday as high pressure settles over the area. The nearly calm winds linger overnight before gradually turning southeast on Monday, but generally remaining under 10 knots through the day. Waves to generally be 1 foot or less Sunday night and Monday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 140 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Winds will be significantly weaker today than yesterday as a ridge of high pressure builds into the area. For most areas, even wind gusts will be less than 10 mph. Minimum relative humidity will drop a bit lower to 30 to 40 percent. A few places could dip below 30 percent. Relative humidity remains low for northwest Wisconsin on Monday, but northern Minnesota RH values will increase to over 35 percent. Winds will become southerly and may gust around 10 mph during the afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase for Monday night through Wednesday, with RH values remaining above 40 percent both days. Precipitation chances are highest along and north of the Iron Range, but most areas have at least a 40 percent chance of measurable rainfall. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LE AVIATION...Britt MARINE...LE FIRE WEATHER...LE  041 FXUS63 KDVN 231720 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1220 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather and pleasant temperatures and humidity continue into Monday. - Mainly dry this week with 20 to 40 percent chances of showers and storms on Wednesday and again next Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 110 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Deep northwesterly flow aloft continues across the Upper Midwest through Monday. High pressure is forecast to drift across the area with lighter winds today and Monday. Temperatures today will be cooler ranging from 75 to 80 degrees. Dewpoints today will be noticeably lower and be in the mid to upper 50s so it will feel pleasant across the area today. Temperatures Sunday night will drop into the mid to upper 50s. On Monday, model consensus as surface high pressure to the east o the area with light southerly return flow setting up across the area. Aloft, models show a slight eastward shift in high pressure to our southwest which pushes the northwest flow east of the area. Quiet weather is expected through the day but some models show a subtle shortwave within the flow that could overspread the area. The current forecast and NBM consensus for Monday is dry with sunny skies and precipitation remaining to the west across central and western Iowa. Depending on the exact placement of this shortwave, decaying showers may move into the far western edge of our CWA west of a Vinton to Fairfield to Keosauqua line with dry air in place across the area. High temperatures on Monday are expected to be in the upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 110 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to continue through the upcoming week. A storm system is forecast to pass to our north and east Tuesday night through Wednesday night with 25 to 40 percent chances of showers and storms. Models show a slight increase in moisture ahead of this storm system. Currently the higher chances of precipitation are across northwest Illinois. Rainfall amounts will be light with generally less than a tenth of an inch expected. High temperatures on Wednesday will be slightly warmer with high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. After Wednesday night, models show the northwest flow as another shortwaves tops the western US ridge flattening the flow to a zonal. This will overspread the area late Friday into Saturday bringing anther low chance of precipitation to the area. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Continued VFR expected into Monday with high pressure in control leading to mainly clear skies and light winds. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cousins LONG TERM...Cousins AVIATION...Uttech  095 FXUS66 KPDT 231721 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1021 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Upper level high pressure builds back over the region through the midweek with warming temperatures and mostly dry conditions - Breezy winds return Wednesday, with moderate confidence (55-60%) in elevated fire weather conditions developing Wednesday - Near seasonable temperatures and diurnally breezy Cascade Gap winds return Thursday into the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Water vapor imagery tonight shows an upper level low moving across western WA, while nighttime satellite and radar imagery shows little activity across the forecast area with only scattered showers/thunderstorms across northeast WA. Winds in the lower elevations have mostly weakened, with breezy conditions still reported through the Cascade gaps, portions of the OR Columbia Basin, and the Blue Mountain foothills. Today through Tuesday: The upper low over western WA will continue to push east through the remainder of today, weakening and becoming an open wave trough during it's transit. On the Backside of the trough, a slight chance (15-25%) of light rain showers will be possible along the WA Cascade crest this morning, but will diminish in the afternoon as the trough pushes into Canada. Breezy winds through the Cascade gaps and portions of the Columbia Basin will remain through the evening hours, as the cross Cascade surface pressure gradient will be slower to weaken. Late Sunday through Tuesday, an upper level ridge will build over the PacNW and Northern Rockies, producing another warming trend that will persist into Wednesday. From the most recent NBM run, 90th percentile max temperatures remain around the mid 90s, with locally upper 90s in the WA Columbia Basin. Otherwise, while conditions are expected to remain mostly dry across the forecast area, there are less than 10% chances of isolated showers/thunderstorms developing across the southern Blues Monday afternoon, and the northern Blues Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday through Saturday: While warming impacts from the upper level ridge is expected to persist into Wednesday, there is good agreement amongst ensemble guidance that upper level troughing in the northeast Pacific will drop closer to the PacNW Wednesday, then push inland during the day Thursday (confidence 55-65%). The approach of the upper trough and an attendant surface low will tighten surface pressure gradients along the Cascade crest, resulting in a return to breezy westerly winds developing Wednesday. Fire weather conditions will become elevated to marginally critical across portions of the Columbia Basin/Gorge and adjacent valleys in the afternoon, as relative humidities will be near critical values (confidence 55-60%). Thursday, ensemble cluster analysis shows the upper trough swinging into southern BC, pushing the upper ridge further east of the region. Near seasonable temperatures will result with a slight increase in relative humidity across the forecast area (confidence 45-55%), while breezy winds persist through the Cascade gaps. Confidence is moderate (45-60%) that fire weather conditions will be elevated, but remain above critical thresholds. Friday into Saturday, ensemble cluster solutions favor upper level troughing continuing to impact the PacNW, though ensemble members are in disagreement on position and strength of the trough. Confidence in forecast details is low- moderate (35-50%) during this period. Lawhorn/82 && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Slightly breezy winds at PDT/ALW/DLS Today with gusts (20-25kts) tapering off around 7 or 8 pm. Elsewhere lighter (under 12 knot) winds at YKM/PSC/RDM/BDN, with VFR at all terminals. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 82 49 90 54/ 0 0 0 0 ALW 84 55 93 61 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 86 53 93 57 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 86 57 91 61 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 85 53 92 58 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 77 51 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 83 45 91 49 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 85 49 93 56 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 87 52 95 57 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 83 59 94 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for WAZ026-522-523. OR...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for ORZ041-044-049-050- 502-503-505>507-509>511. && $$ DISCUSSION...82 AVIATION...71  120 FXUS62 KCAE 231722 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 122 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Lowered dewpoints north and west of I-20 as a weak front moves into the region. Updated 18z Aviation. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Seasonal temperatures with afternoon thunderstorm chances each day this week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonal temperatures with afternoon thunderstorm chances each day into next week. Afternoon satellite imagery shows scattered cumulus starting to develop, mainly along and southeast of the I-20 corridor. A weak frontal bounday is ushering in drier air into the FA. As a result, opted to lower both dewpoints and PoPs for much of the region. Modeled soundings and mesoanalysis data show ample CAPE and DCAPE along and south of this boundary but any thunderstorm will have to overcome the mid-level dry air moving in order to develop. Expecting isolated convective activity to develop during the next few hours, with the greatest probability along and southeast of I-95. Any robust thunderstorm that forms has the potential to approach severe limits and produce small hail and strong downbursts winds, so trends will be monitored as the day goes on. With decreasing PWATs, the flash flood risk is low. Generally quiet conditions are expected through the first half of the week as a relatively dry air mass remains in place. Rain chances should stay low through tomorrow, with only isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms possible during the early part of the week. Moisture will gradually increase from mid to late week, resulting in a trend toward higher afternoon storm coverage. LREF probabilities indicate a 50-70 percent chance of PWAT values exceeding 1.75 inches from Wednesday onward. Upper- level troughing will also begin to shift into the region, supporting increasing moisture and greater chances for afternoon thunderstorms. Weak shortwaves embedded within the flow should also provide additional forcing for convection. Temperatures are expected to gradually warm as this overall pattern persists into next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mainly vfr expected, with brief mvfr visibilities in patch br/fg towards sunrise. Drier air is filtering into the area through this afternoon. Highest dewpoints and moisture seemingly confined to the eastern Midlands, southern CSRA, and the coastal plains of SC/GS. This should limit any shower formation for the majority of the taf locations this afternoon and evening. Highest probability would be at kogb, with an isolated showers not completely out of the question. Elsewhere coverage generally less than a 10 percent if anything could develop. Probabilities not high enough to warrant even placing in the tafs at this time. Winds will be mainly light and variable this afternoon and tonight, then becoming more westerly around 5 knots towards 15z Monday. With limited moisture overnight, do not expect any widespread fog, even with light to calm winds. Best areas for any brief visibility restrictions around sunrise will be near bodies of water, with any formation being shallow, brief, and remain patchy at best. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated storms each afternoon with higher coverage of storms expected by midweek. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...7 AVIATION...73  177 FXUS62 KCAE 231723 CCA AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Columbia SC 123 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Lowered dewpoints north and west of I-20 as a weak front moves into the region. Updated 18z Aviation. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Seasonal temperatures with afternoon thunderstorm chances each day this week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonal temperatures with afternoon thunderstorm chances each day into next week. Afternoon satellite imagery shows scattered cumulus starting to develop, mainly along and southeast of the I-20 corridor. A weak frontal bounday is ushering in drier air into the FA. As a result, opted to lower both dewpoints and PoPs for much of the region. Modeled soundings and mesoanalysis data show ample CAPE and DCAPE along and south of this boundary but any thunderstorm will have to overcome the mid-level dry air moving in order to develop. Expecting isolated convective activity to develop during the next few hours, with the greatest probability along and southeast of I-95. Any robust thunderstorm that forms has the potential to approach severe limits and produce small hail and strong downbursts winds, so trends will be monitored as the day goes on. With decreasing PWATs, the flash flood risk is low. Generally quiet conditions are expected through the first half of the week as a relatively dry air mass remains in place. Rain chances should stay low through tomorrow, with only isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms possible during the early part of the week. Moisture will gradually increase from mid to late week, resulting in a trend toward higher afternoon storm coverage. LREF probabilities indicate a 50-70 percent chance of PWAT values exceeding 1.75 inches from Wednesday onward. Upper- level troughing will also begin to shift into the region, supporting increasing moisture and greater chances for afternoon thunderstorms. Weak shortwaves embedded within the flow should also provide additional forcing for convection. Temperatures are expected to gradually warm as this overall pattern persists into next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mainly vfr expected, with brief mvfr visibilities in patch br/fg towards sunrise. Drier air is filtering into the area through this afternoon. Highest dewpoints and moisture seemingly confined to the eastern Midlands, southern CSRA, and the coastal plains of SC/GA. This should limit any shower formation for the majority of the taf locations this afternoon and evening. Highest probability would be at kogb, with an isolated showers not completely out of the question. Elsewhere coverage generally less than a 10 percent if anything could develop. Probabilities not high enough to warrant even placing in the tafs at this time. Winds will be mainly light and variable this afternoon and tonight, then becoming more westerly around 5 knots towards 15z Monday. With limited moisture overnight, do not expect any widespread fog, even with light to calm winds. Best areas for any brief visibility restrictions around sunrise will be near bodies of water, with any formation being shallow, brief, and remain patchy at best. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated storms each afternoon with higher coverage of storms expected by midweek. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...7 AVIATION...73  181 FXUS63 KDDC 231723 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1223 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread accumulating rainfall possible on Tuesday. There is a 50 to 60% chance that rainfall totals Tuesday night will be greater than 0.25 inches west of highway 283. - There will be a slight chance for severe thunderstorms late Tuesday with the main hazard being large hail and strong damaging wind gusts. - Hot conditions with highs near 100 degrees in some areas early on Monday and Tuesday will give way to cooler temperatures mid week. Highs on Wednesday will be mainly in the lower 90s but there is a 60-75% chance for highs to be less than 90 degrees along the I-70 corridor and around the Garden City area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Earlier this morning, an area of weakening convection was moving across north central Kansas as an upper level disturbance embedded in a 10-15 knot west/northwest flow crosses western Kansas. A 500mb high remains in place across the southwest United States while an upper level trough was located over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface a surface boundary extended from eastern Colorado to the Panhandle of Texas. Models today remain in good agreement and have run to run consistency. These models show minimal movement of the surface boundary over the next 36 hours as the next subtle upper level trough rotates around the 500mb high and approaches western Kansas late today. As this upper level system moves out into the west central high plains late today there will be a chance for scattered afternoon thunderstorms over eastern Colorado and along the surface boundary which will be located near the Oklahoma Panhandle border which, if they develop, will move southeast. These storms are not expected to be severe, but a few may be capable of producing gusty winds. As for the possible thunderstorms that may develop over eastern Colorado late today...they weaken and cross extreme southwest Kansas later tonight. For the first few days of this upcoming work week the 500mb high over the southwest United states will move very slowly westward which will result in placing southwest Kansas on the northeast edge of the upper highs and in a northwest flow regime. Based on this southwest Kansas can look forward to multiple opportunities for scattered thunderstorms as additional upper waves rotate out of the Rockies and into the Plains. As for the storms on Monday...conditions are expected to be similar to those anticipated later tonight. However, the timing of the upper wave crossing the Rockies appears to be earlier in the day, potentially providing a better opportunity for late day convection along the surface boundary near extreme southwest Kansas. Large low level lapse rages and forecast DCAPE late day also suggests a few storms may be capable of producing wind gusts of 50 to near 60 mph that if a few late day/evening storms do develop and move into extreme southwest Kansas. A better chance for thunderstorms is expected late Tuesday as the next upper level trough moves across the Western High Plains. Latest ensembles continue to show strong consensus on timing and track of this next upper wave. This upper wave will be associated with the right entrance region of an upper level jet as it crosses the Northern Plains. Ahead of this Tuesday upper wave the ensembles indicate now a 50-60% probability of MUCAPE >500j/kg and bulk shear >30 knots over western Kansas along with southeasterly upslope flow of near 70 degree dewpoints. This not only support another chance for thunderstorms across southwest Kansas late Tuesday as this upper wave passes but it also suggests that there is a higher probability than earlier in the week that a few of these storms may be severe. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible given ensemble PWAT values near 1.5 inches (roughly 80% of normal). Widespread beneficial rainfall may also be possible for some areas of southwest Kansas from this Tuesday night event. The latest NBM guidance has a 50 to 60% chance that rainfall totals Tuesday night will be greater than 0.25 inches west of highway 283. This upper level trough crossing western Kansas Tuesday night will not only bring a +60% chance for thunderstorms to southwest Kansas Tuesday night but it will also allow a cold front to move into southwest Kansas on Wednesday. This cold front will briefly bring an end to the hot (near 100 degree) temperatures across southwest Kansas Monday and Tuesday. Highs mid week will be more seasonal with highs mainly in the lower 90s. Latest NBM even has a 60-75% chance for highs to be less than 90 degrees along the I-70 corridor and around the Garden City area. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR ceilings at or above 10000ft AGL along with some scattered thunderstorms will be possible for the next few hours in the Hays area as an upper level trough crosses western Kansas. These clouds and convection will move east of the area between 19 and 20z with skies clearing. Clear skies this afternoon across southwest Kansas will then give way to another increase in clouds at or above 12000ft AGL after sunset. Gusty southwest winds at near 20 knots this afternoon will decrease to 10 to 15 knots between 00z and 03z Monday. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Burgert AVIATION...Burgert  165 FXUS63 KTOP 231723 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1223 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Scattered showers are possible today, with higher chances for storms occurring tonight. -Without a significant change in the pattern, there will continue to be occasional chances for storms through the upcoming workweek. -Cooler today, then temperatures warm back to near average. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Early this morning, a small complex of storms was moving into western KS. Those storms are associated with a shortwave on the northern periphery of the mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern CONUS. Storms will struggle to maintain strength and will likely evolve into widely scattered rain showers as the complex moves into central and eastern KS due to minimal amounts of instability and weak shear. Thus, POPs are mainly in the 20 to 30 percent range throughout the day. Temperatures will also struggle to warm due to cloud cover, which will keep highs on the cool side of average, mainly in the low 80s today. Tonight will bring a higher probability (40-60%) for thunderstorms in response to isentropic ascent on the edge of an increasing LLJ. While there will be more instability and effective shear to work with, severe weather is not likely overnight. Lingering showers/storms in far eastern KS should dissipate by late morning tomorrow, and afternoon sunshine should allow temps to warm back to near average in the mid to upper 80s along and south of I-70 (slightly cooler north). Another chance for rain arrives in central/north-central KS on Tuesday as another shortwave travels through the northwest flow aloft. POPs expand eastward across the area Tuesday night and early Wednesday along a surface boundary associated with a stronger system over the Great Lakes. Long range models agree on keeping conditions dry on Thursday, but with a similar pattern remaining in place, will have to monitor for the occasional shortwave bringing more rounds of rain late in the week. In the meantime, temperatures will remain near average with lows in the mid 60s and highs in the mid to upper 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A few rounds of precipitation are possible, one over the next several hours and another around 10Z. The first should bring little if any impacts with high bases and limited instability for mainly sprinkles at the most. The latter round sees more instability for more impact potential. Confidence is somewhat limited on where and when the greater coverage will be so went with PROB ground at this point. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Teefey AVIATION...Poage  169 FXUS64 KLZK 231723 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1223 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 -Relatively cooler temperatures will be seen from today through much of the upcoming week, especially compared to the brutal temperatures felt across Arkansas last week. -A Heat Advisory is in place across southern Arkansas for today as heat index values are expected to reach and exceed 105 degrees. -A Marginal Risk for severe weather is present on Sunday across the northwestern quadrant of the state for a few storms which may produce damaging wind gusts on Sunday evening into the early morning hours on Monday. -Northwesterly flow positioned over Arkansas will continue to allow multiple frontal boundaries to impact the state resulting POP chances on multiple days during the forecast period && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 As of 2 AM CDT, storms are exiting the southeastern portion of the state and moving into Mississippi. SUNDAY into EARLY MONDAY: A Heat Advisory has been introduced for today across southern Arkansas where heat index values are expected to peak between 105 and 109 degrees during this afternoon. It is expected during today for southern Arkansas to remain dry overall which will allow heat index values increase into advisory territory. A chance does exist that the Heat Advisory may need expanding northward along the I-40 corridor, but latest guidance does not warrant this. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) will be in place across the northwestern quadrant or northwestern fourth of the state with the main hazard of damaging wind gusts possible with storms that become severe. A mid-level jet streak over southern Missouri and northeastern Arkansas will result in the right entrance region of the jet to be positioned over northeast Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas. The entrance region will promote or enhance lift which will lead to storm development and the storm motion of east-southeast will result in scattered storms moving into a modest, but conditionally unstable parameter space across the northwestern fourth of Arkansas with projected shear values of 30 to 45 knots to support healthy updrafts along with DCAPE values of 500 to 1,000 J/kg which would support isolated instance of damaging wind gusts. The timing of the storms moving into Arkansas will be Sunday evening into Sunday night. MONDAY through SATURDAY: In the upper lvls, northwesterly flow will continue to be present over Arkansas leading to several days over the forecast period in which POPs will be present across parts of the state. Important to note not all locations will experience appreciable rainfall. POPs will be present across eastern Arkansas on Monday night, a large part of the state on Wednesday into Wednesday night (associated with a series of weak frontal boundaries progged to move across the state from north to south), and isolated parts of the state into the next weekend (associated with a boundary which is progged to become stationary across Arkansas). Temperatures overall during the forecast period will be lower than the brutal temperatures experienced over the last week, but a few days, especially those which lack POP chances and increased cloud cover will allow high temperatures to reach 100 degrees across many location and on the trend of temperatures above normal for this time of the year will continue overall. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR flight conditions to prevail through rest of today, winds to remain light and variable. Monday morning CIGs will begin to degrade as showers begin to develop before sunrise near northern terminals. Coverageof showers will gradually increase and become more robust into TS by mid morning. Confidence in coverage remains low enough not to prevail at any site, but expect sub-VFR conditions with gustier winds if a site is impacted. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 70 87 70 95 / 30 80 30 10 Camden AR 74 96 74 99 / 10 20 20 10 Harrison AR 67 85 69 92 / 70 80 10 10 Hot Springs AR 74 93 74 100 / 20 30 10 10 Little Rock AR 75 90 74 100 / 30 60 30 10 Monticello AR 75 93 75 97 / 10 40 40 20 Mount Ida AR 72 94 72 101 / 10 20 10 10 Mountain Home AR 68 84 68 92 / 60 80 30 10 Newport AR 71 86 70 93 / 20 80 30 10 Pine Bluff AR 73 90 72 97 / 20 50 40 10 Russellville AR 73 91 72 100 / 40 60 10 0 Searcy AR 71 88 70 96 / 20 80 30 10 Stuttgart AR 74 90 73 97 / 30 70 40 20 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ052-053-062>069. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...78  146 FXUS65 KPUB 231722 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1122 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increased flash flood potential over the Aspen Acres burn scar today, as showers and thunderstorms become more numerous across the area. - Showers and storms continue through much of the incoming week, though with a downtrend in coverage late week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 1236 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Showers and isolated thunderstorms still drifting across the area early this morning, with plentiful moisture and weak upward forcing continuing. Still expect most activity to end by sunrise, persisting longest over the far eastern plains where low level jet may help boost activity for a few more hours. Brief break in convection Sunday morning, before mountain storms develop again starting around 19z, with activity spreading slowly over the plains and valleys from late afternoon into the evening. Precip signal for the Aspen Acres burn scar in the 00z CAMs is not quite as impressive as it was in the 12z data, as most forcing is rather weak and subtle (se surface winds are lacking in the 00z run), though much like Saturday, plenty of moisture and convection is in place, with very hard to predict outflow collisions/interactions driving convection. Will keep Flash Flood Watch up for the burn scar this afternoon and evening, as rainfall amounts of over 1.5 inches fell between Beulah and Pueblo in less than an hr on Saturday, just missing the scar. Expect max temps today to cool just a few degf over mountains, as mid level heights fall slightly, while plains readings stay relatively unchanged. On Monday, very little change in the pattern, with another round of afternoon and evening convection across the area. Will wait on another flash flood watch for the Aspen Acres burn scar to see how Sunday's convection and low level environment evolve, but may need another highlight as relatively stagnant weather persists. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 1236 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Upper level high pressure drifts back westward into the swrn U.S. during the week, with mid/upper level flow becoming slightly more nwly through the period. Still not much change expected Tue, with another round of afternoon/evening storms focused over the mountains, drifting onto the plains in the evening. Weak front may then drop south south through the plains late Tue into Wed, potentially enhancing convection over the eastern mountains and across the plains on Wed, as enhanced easterly upslope winds behind the front refresh low level moisture. Max temps will drift downward a few degf by Wed, as ridge shifts subtly west and moisture increases. Slow transition to drier weather starts Thu as ridge gets far enough west to cut-off deeper mid-level moisture, but still expect the usual crop of afternoon/evening storms, most numerous eastern mountains and plains. Drier and warmer weather then in store for Friday into next weekend, though we never completely flush the moisture out of the area, so at least isolated afternoon/evening convection will continue each day, especially over the mountains. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1122 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Outside of thunderstorms, winds are expected to remain relatively light, around and less than 10 knots, with only occasional gusts 15 to 20 knots. Dry conditions at the start of this TAF period will give way to storms this afternoon and early evening. Storms may bring periods of heavy rainfall, reduced visibility, gusty outflow winds, small hail, and frequent lightning to any of the TAF sites. Otherwise, mid to high level clouds will increase in coverage today, with a decreasing in coverage overnight and into tomorrow morning. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080- 086. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...PETERSEN AVIATION...SIMCOE  230 FXUS61 KBGM 231724 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 124 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Some minor adjustments to shower coverage and rainfall amounts through Tuesday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers with some lake enhancement are still forecasted through Tuesday. 2) High pressure builds in for a brief lull in wet weather Wednesday, then additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to return Thursday into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Our region will be under a broad trough of upper level low pressure through Tuesday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon should begin to decrease this evening with the loss of instability. Southerly to southwesterly winds should dry things out for most of the night into Monday. However, low level lapse rates should steepen during the afternoon leading to the development of additional scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms by Monday afternoon. Small hail can not be ruled out given the modeled lapse rates. The wind direction should become more westerly to northwesterly later Monday night through Tuesday pulling some lake moisture into the picture and generating lake effect showers across CNY. Rainfall amounts look fairly light with only brief heavy downpours. Temperatures though trend cooler due to the clouds and rainfall with highs barely making 70 and lows in the 50's. Our first real feel of fall this year. KEY MESSAGE 2... A break is modeled Tuesday night and Wednesday as high pressure builds into the area. This still looks short lived as another cold frontal boundary moves through the region Thursday and Friday. Enough lift and moisture should be present ahead of the front for a round or two of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures warm a bit Thursday and Friday into the 80's with the southerly flow. Slightly cooler air and high pressure looks to build into the region next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Scattered rain showers and storms are possible through the early evening, with TEMPO groups included at every terminal. Storms will be quite scattered, and if one were to move over a terminal, brief restrictions are possible. Otherwise, VFR conditions are then expected to prevail over the area this evening into tonight, as the lake effect rain bands stay just north. Outlook... Monday...Scattered showers at the Central NY terminals with associated restrictions possible. Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Friday...Potential restrictions with an incoming frontal system. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWG AVIATION...KL  228 FXUS63 KIWX 231724 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 124 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered lake enhanced showers possible before sunset today. - Breezy this afternoon and evening with northwest winds gusting as high as 20 to 25 mph. - Dangerous swimming conditions persist through this evening on southern Lake Michigan with a High Swim Risk. - Seasonable temperatures and much lower humidity continue through Tuesday. - Next opportunity for rain and storms arrives Wednesday afternoon and evening with 30-60% chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1241 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 We are getting a taste of fall today with clouds, showers, breezy conditions, and cooler temperatures! A low pressure system has departed the Upper Great Lakes region and is currently located over southern Ontario. Isolated lake enhanced showers can be seen on radar this afternoon as the system's attendant mid level trough pivots through northern Indiana. Northwest cyclonic flow and delta Ts of ~14C (water temps ~24C, 10C at 850mb tonight) over Lake Michigan should produce at least a weak lake enhanced response until sunset. In addition to showers, the deepening pressure gradient from the low pressure system off of our northeast will continue to generate gusty northwest winds throughout this afternoon and evening. Northwest winds will be sustained around 10 to 15 mph with gusts as high as 20 to 25 mph through sunset. Breezy conditions and CAA will keep highs only in the low 70s today, about 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Dangerous swimming conditions are ongoing for southeast Lake Michigan beaches and are expected to continue through this evening. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for La Porte and Berrien counties through 11 PM EDT tonight. There is a High Swim Risk today with northwest winds generating 3 to 5 ft waves. Strong rip and structural currents are also expected! If your weekend plans include heading to the beach this afternoon and evening, heed all warnings from lifeguards and stay out of the water! An area of high pressure located over the Midwest with build into the Great Lakes region early in the week. Much lower humidity and several days of seasonable temperatures will make for refreshing early fall-like days. Highs on Monday will be in the mid to upper 70s and highs on Tuesday will be around 80; it will be gradually warmer into midweek as the airmass overhead moderates. Clear skies and light winds overnight mean that several crisp mornings are ahead! Get the pumpkin spice lattes ready as lows Monday and Tuesday morning will only be in the low 50s! Wednesday is a bit warmer and humid with increasing chances for rain and storms. An upper level trough deepens over the Great Lakes and a surface cold front is expected to move through. There are have 30-60% chances for scattered rain and storms Wednesday, with the highest chances along and north of the US 30 corridor. This setup looks to be similar to the past few days where the vorticity maximum is located further north across Michigan so our area misses out on the most widespread rainfall. Instability appears decent but shear and lapse rates may be lacking. We will monitor in the coming days but at this time, severe weather and flooding risks are low. High pressure returns late in the week with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 120 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. However, for KFWA there is a chance of MVFR vsbys in light showers this afternoon between 17z to 22z. Confidence is low in this outcome and even coverage. Breezy northwest to westerly winds this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon with winds becoming light during the overnight period. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043- 046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...Andersen  239 FXUS63 KPAH 231725 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 20-40% chance of patchy fog early Monday morning, especially along and northwest of the Ohio River. - Elevated isolated showers and storms may clip Carter and Ripley county Monday morning with a 30% chance of rainfall between one to two tenths of an inch. - Temperatures will quickly return to more seasonable by Wednesday with an increase in humidity levels along with 20-30% chance of daily showers and storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A broad H5 trough with northwesterly flow is centered over the Ohio Valley this afternoon with sfc high pressure in control. Drier air above 800 mb has allowed for dewpoints to mix down into the upper 50s in some spots with temperatures running about 5 degrees below normal. Mostly clear skies and calm winds tonight will allow for radiational cooling. Leaned below NBM for low temperatures Monday morning that range from the mid 50s to low 60s. Patchy fog will be possible again with the probabilistic NBM/LAMP guidance supporting a 20-40% chance. The other concern will be the potential for a elevated complex of storms to clip Carter and Ripley county as a H5 shortwave approaches. Limited NBM PoPs to a 30% chance for a tenth or two inch of rainfall as most of the 12z CAMs have shifted more south towards the better instability. Temperatures quickly trend more seasonable by Wednesday as a warm front lifts north with humidity levels on the rise for the latter half of the week. The FA will remain sandwiched between an upper level ridge and trough that will send additional disturbances our way beginning Wednesday. Daily rain chances through Thursday only range from 20-30% with even lower chances heading into next weekend as another area of sfc high pressure builds in. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Tranquil weather conditions will prevail this afternoon with light northwest winds around 5-7 kts. Winds quickly turn calm tonight with mostly clear skies that will support the potential for some patchy fog early Monday morning. There is a 30-40% chance of at least MVFR conditions across the western terminals, but isolated lower reductions that are difficult to pinpoint similar to this morning will be possible. Winds increase to 3-4 kts out of the south Monday morning after sunrise. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...DW  295 FXUS64 KMRX 231726 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 126 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1219 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Dry conditions with more comfortable humidity levels through Tuesday. - Shower and thunderstorm chances will return Wednesday and Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1216 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The cold front is currently on our doorstep over Eastern Kentucky and the Cumberland Plateau on the latest analysis. Showers and storms are currently isolated but new activity is popping up in the foothills of the East Tennessee mountains. CAMs and the NBM agree that showers and storms will dissipate by 1 or 2 AM EDT. Confidence is increasing that clouds will clear out before sunrise and fog will likely be an issue this morning. The front will move through tonight bringing cooler temps and lower dew points today and tomorrow. Sunday and Monday dew points will be in the 50s and highs will be in the 80s (Chattanooga area may hit 90-91). Sunday through Tuesday will be dry with high pressure at the surface. The upper level pattern will be about the same with a deep trough on the East Coast and a ridge centered over the Rockies. The NBM has low rain chances Wednesday increasing to 40-60% chances by Thursday. The trough will be centered over the Ohio Valley again by midweek with a shortwave rotating through the pattern on Thursday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The primary aviation weather concern is the potential for fog development late tonight especially TRI. Right now the potential for significant fog looks too low to include as prevailing, but will include a few hours of tempo MVFR vsby in fog around sunrise at TRI. Otherwise, a VFR forecast for the period all sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 90 65 91 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 86 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 61 86 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 81 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...McD AVIATION...99  298 FXUS65 KFGZ 231726 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1026 AM MST Sun Aug 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Moderate monsoon activity will continue through Monday, mainly along the higher terrain during the afternoon and evening hours. Then, as high pressure builds over Arizona, hot and mainly dry conditions are expected to develop as the flow of moisture northward into the region diminishes. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft was centered over New Mexico Sunday morning. It is expected that the high center will slowly drift southward through about Tuesday then westward becoming centered over southeast Arizona by Friday/Saturday. Look for daily chances for showers/thunderstorms across northern Arizona through Tuesday, with diminished chances later in the week as a drier and more stable air mass develops over northern Arizona. For Today...Monsoon moisture will remain in place. As a result, we're looking at another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Much like on Saturday, look for shower and thunderstorm development over the mountains around midday with activity then tending to move north and east with the general flow aloft. Storms during the day will likely be most numerous from the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains northward. Another aspect to keep an eye on is the possibility of a convective blowup over southern Arizona this afternoon and evening. The potential is for a strong outflow boundary to be sent northward interacting with moisture and instability across central to northern Arizona. The result would be a mid to late evening (and even overnight) uptick in showers and storms across portions of northern Arizona (especially along and west of the I-17/Highway 89A corridor). Otherwise, light winds and generally hot conditions. For Monday and Tuesday...Monsoon moisture remains in place with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. The flow aloft will remain southerly with the bulk of activity expected from the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains northward. Otherwise, with the high remaining over the southwest United States, light winds will continue along with above normal temperatures, turning especially hot by Tuesday as high pressure begins to strengthen over Arizona. Looking from Wednesday onward...Models appear to be trending toward high pressure aloft becoming centered over southeast Arizona. This solution would bring in a more southwest to west flow aloft which would deliver a drier air mass as well as a capping layer under the influence of weak subsidence. In addition, daytime temperatures will be on the increase, likely rising to the upper 80 to lower 90s in the mountains to 105 to 110 degrees at elevations below 4000 feet. A reminder that we remain in the grips of summer. && .AVIATION...Sunday 23/18Z through Monday 24/18Z....Mainly VFR conditions. Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA starting to develop at 18Z and continuing through at least 03Z. There is the potential that SHRA/TSRA in south-central AZ could produce an outflow boundary that will trigger another round of SHRA/TSRA late tonight or early Monday morning for KPRC-KSEX-KFLG-KINW between 9Z and 18Z. Brief MVFR conditions and gusty/erratic wind possible in heavier SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise, look for south to southwest winds at 5-15 kts, with variable or terrain wind-driven winds overnight. OUTLOOK...Monday 24/18Z through Wednesday 26/18Z...Expect mainly VFR conditions. Scattered afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA Monday, with coverage decreasing to isolated by Tuesday. Outside of gusty/erratic outflow driven winds, look for daytime winds mainly southwest to west 5-15 kts. Light and variable winds at night. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Expect daily chances for showers/thunderstorms, with the greatest coverage across the higher terrain. Activity will ramp up around midday then continue through the evening hours both days. Outside of gusty and erratic storm driven winds, look for variable winds generally 10 mph or less. Tuesday through Thursday...Drier conditions will gradually return, with activity becoming limited to the White Mountains by Wednesday and Thursday. Daytime highs are forecast to become quite hot, reaching 10-15 degrees above normal. Look for southwest winds 5-15 mph each afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...Schank FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  338 FXUS66 KSGX 231727 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 1027 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Monsoonal moisture will decrease this weekend, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for the mountains and lower deserts returning for Monday afternoon. Above average high and low temperatures will continue through next week. Widespread moderate to locally major HeatRisk for the coast, valleys, and mountains except near the beaches and for the higher elevations in the mountains, with major to extreme HeatRisk for the lower deserts. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... ...UPDATED AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES DISCUSSION... Today through tomorrow night... A strong ridge remains in place through this weekend, with temperatures remaining around 5 to 10 degrees above the seasonal average for this time of year. There will be some monsoonal moisture passing through the mid levels over the region by later on which may allow for a rogue shower or two to develop over the mountains, although it will likely struggle to develop into a thunderstorm, given the lack of instability and overall flow. The marine layer as of this morning has struggled to form with only patchy ceilings along some of the coastal sites, and this will be the case again for tonight. Be advised of all heat products issued, and be sure to stay hydrated! Monday through Friday... There will be a slightly better influx of monsoonal moisture for Monday through the rest of the week, although the mid-level flow will still not be favorable for afternoon shower and thunderstorm development to be significant. However, there will still be the chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon over the mountains and adjacent deserts, especially by later in the week. It will also remain very hot, with only a slight cooldown on Monday and then gradually increasing towards the middle of the week as the ridge remains stationary and locked in over the desert southwest, translating to the persistence of high temperatures remaining on an average of 5 to 10 degrees above average throughout the rest of the work week. The marine layer will likely have similar results, with struggles to form overnight and likely impacting only the coastal areas for the most part. && .AVIATION... 231700Z...Coast...Low clouds and locally dense fog linger along the immediate coast in San Diego County. Moderate confidence in cigs and vis at the immediate coast clearing 20Z Sun-00Z Mon. Moderate confidence in cigs impacting coastal SD between 10-15Z Mon with bases 200-800ft MSL. Lowered vis 1-3 SM expected with vis less than 1 SM near higher coastal terrain. Low clouds and vis restrictions may linger along the immediate coast after 15Z Mon. Otherwise...VFR conditions through the TAF period with FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20,000ft MSL after 20Z. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Friday. && .BEACHES... A 4-5 foot southerly swell (from 170 degrees) at 13-15 seconds will move into the area Wednesday and Thursday, leading to elevated surf for the south facing beaches of northern San Diego County and Orange County. Breaking waves of 4 to 6 feet expected, sets up to 8 feet possible at beaches that face due south. Surf gradually subsides on Friday. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Friday evening for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Orange County Coastal Areas- Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County CoastalAreas-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys- Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Heat Advisory until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for Coachella Valley- San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Stewey AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...CO  414 FXUS61 KAKQ 231729 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 129 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated the marine discussion. No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mainly dry with seasonably warm temperatures and comfortable humidity through Wednesday. Chances for showers and storms return late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 AM EDT Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry with seasonably warm temperatures and comfortable humidity through Wednesday. Chances for showers and storms return late in the week. The vast majority of precip has moved offshore this morning with just some lingering (light) rain on the lower Maryland Eastern Shore. Otherwise, a cold front will gradually slide through the area today. There will be an initial push of drier air this morning, followed by a more substantial push late this afternoon and evening. Today will be dry for most though a very isolated sea breeze shower could develop in the Virginia Beach/Outer Banks vicinity. Have a very thin stripe of 20% PoPs in this area. Regarding temperatures, expecting it to be quite warm due to a modest downsloping effect with highs ranging from the mid 80s W to upper 80s E. Dew points should also drop from W to E and likely into the mid-upper 50s inland, but still in the 60s near the coast. High pressure sets up to our NW Monday and then drifts SE toward the local area Tuesday. Wx wise, similarly benign Monday-Wednesday with seasonably warm conditions and very comfortable humidity/dew points. There is a very low chance of an afternoon shower/storm near the Albemarle Sound Monday afternoon; otherwise, mainly dry. There will be a gradual shift toward another wetter period by the end of the week as broad troughing overspreads the eastern CONUS and the deep-layer flow becomes southwesterly. An accompanying increase in humidity is also expected. At this time, Thursday appears to be the most "active" day with showers and storms likely areawide. Daily convection chances linger, especially across the E/SE, Friday and likely into next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Sunday... VFR conditions prevail for the 18z/23 TAF period. Could see an isolated shower near ORF/PHF later this afternoon if the sea- breeze manages to trigger something. Confidence is not high enough for even a prob30 at this point. Breezy WNW winds turn light and variable overnight. Outlook: Dry and prevailing VFR conditions expected through the early-mid week period. && .MARINE... As of 1225 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Generally benign marine conditions are expected through the weekend into early next week. - A brief SE surge is possible late Wednesday into early Wednesday night. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail this weekend through much of next week. A cold front continues to move east across the local waters this afternoon. However, elevated winds are not expected behind the front. Instead, NW winds of 5-10 kt early this afternoon become variable through tonight. Will note that a secondary cold front pushes through overnight, allowing for NW winds after ~2 AM. High pressure builds in Mon with light and variable winds continuing. Another weak cold front pushes across the local waters Mon night with winds becoming N 10-15 kt. Winds gradually diminish Tue as weak onshore flow develops (5-10 kt). The only potential for low-end SCA conditions appears to be late Wed into Wed night as SE winds increase to ~15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt behind a warm front. However, confidence is low at this time with the current model consensus showing winds remaining sub- SCA. Otherwise, waves mainly around 1 foot (occasionally 1-2 ft) and seas mainly around 2 feet (occasionally 2-3 ft) continue through the week. Given 1-2 ft nearshore waves, the rip current risk remains low through Wed. Will note that long period swell of 10-12 seconds continues through Wed which could result in some rip currents. However, given the relatively flat nearshore waves, current thinking is that the rip current risk will remain below moderate. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SW AVIATION...AC MARINE...RMM  405 FXUS64 KMAF 231728 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1227 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Hot temperatures continue through midweek with little to no chance of rain. - Drink plenty of fluids and seek shade frequently as heat illnesses due to prolonged exposure to heat may occur. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 115 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Running out of ways to say it's going to be hot. Mid and upper ridging will continue to strengthen and center overhead over the next few days. This will bring a peak to the current heat wave early this week with nearly everyone over the 100 degree mark, outside of the mountains. The Heat Advisory will continue for the northeast zones today and will most certainly be extended in time as temperatures will only get hotter Monday/Tuesday. The heat risk remains in the "extreme" category so take precautions and limit time outdoors, especially in the afternoon. Precipitation chances remain nil the next couple of days. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 115 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The ridge will begin to weaken slightly and shift west Tuesday/Wednesday, but not before another couple of very hot days. Northwesterly flow will develop aloft allowing storms that develop over northern NM to move toward the area late Wednesday. Confidence is slightly higher for more widespread coverage of storms so rain chances have increased to 30-40% for SE NM and the northern Permian Basin. More storms are possible Thursday which could keep temperatures under 100 for some locations, but won't pull the trigger on that yet. Drier conditions return late week with temperatures remaining well above normal. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions continue at all terminals. Southerly winds between 10-15kts with occasional gusts up to 20kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 77 105 75 105 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 74 104 74 104 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 75 103 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 75 103 73 102 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 70 96 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 72 103 71 103 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 64 96 63 97 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 77 102 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 77 102 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 76 104 75 104 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Borden-Howard- Mitchell-Scurry. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...93  380 FXUS65 KCYS 231728 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1128 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lower coverage of showers and thunderstorms today, mainly further south near the Colorado border and western Nebraska. Brief strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall expected with this activity into this evening. - Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue Monday through the end of the week with slightly above average temperature expected until Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 155 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Current KCYS radar loop shows remnant convective activity weakening early this morning across western Nebraska as the low to midlevels stabilize for the rest of tonight. Will need to monitor the potential for fog with weak south winds and near saturated conditions near the surface. Otherwise, still getting some brief wind gusts of 45 to 55 MPH with the left over convection, but that should end shortly. Disturbance aloft, which aided in most of the convection initiation on Saturday, will continue to push east early this morning and eventually into central and eastern Nebraska by sunrise. With slightly drier and more stable air behind this shortwave disturbance, expect coverage of showers and thunderstorms to be considerably less today. Expect dewpoint to fall into the upper 30s and 40s along and west of the I-25 corridor, possibly as far east as far western Nebraska. No notable forcing today as the flatten ridge amplifies slightly this afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms expected today, but mainly further south along and near the I-80 corridor. Increased POP a bit across western Nebraska with the surface moisture remaining in place. There is more shear across this region as well, so can't rule out a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms. Coverage of severe thunderstorms will be limited, just like on Saturday. Otherwise, surface winds are expected to increase out of the west with gusts of 30 to 45 MPH possible, especially across southeast Wyoming near the wind prone areas and west of the I-25 corridor. For Monday, similar convective environment compared to Sunday but with more midlevel forcing and a bit more low level convergence near the Laramie Range. These factors will help convection initiation which high resolution models all show into the mid to late afternoon and through the evening hours. Increased POP between 25 to 40 percent, especially further south along the Interstate 80 corridor and the mountains. As we head into the evening hours, expect enhanced moisture advection and convergence near the surface as surface winds shift into the east across the eastern plains. With inverted V soundings for much of the day, expect any thunderstorms to produce gusty winds into the evening hours. SPC introduced a Marginal Risk of strong to severe thunderstorms, mainly for strong outflow winds. Remaining very warm or hot during the day with highs in the mid 80s (west) to mid 90s east of the Interstate 25 corridor. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Moving into the work week we'll start off on the hot side with a high pressure ridge firmly in control of the Western US. While temperatures will cool just a couple of degrees compared to Sunday, highs still sit warmer than average by around 5-8 degrees. A cold front will be approaching the region with another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms on tap including locally stronger to weakly severe activity possible. By Tuesday though a backdoor cold front will offer very meager respite as highs drop by around 2-6 degrees, closer to near average but still above by up to a few degrees. Similarly, moisture will continue to remain just above average at around 120-140% of average, equating to PWAT values of 0.75-1.25 inches. While not impressive by any stretch of the imagination, this should continue to fuel daytime thunderstorms with a marginal risk of severe activity. Wednesday through the end of the week look to be largely similar with a steady warming trend, bringing us back to temperatures similar to Monday alongside continued daily afternoon thunderstorm risk under westerly to northwesterly flow. Drier air will slowly infiltrate through the week though, and this will begin to steadily increase our fire weather risk with elevated conditions at least by Friday. Anyone expecting an early end to summer will be sorely disappointed in the last full week of August. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1125 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Added a mention of showers and/or thunderstorms in all sites due to recent high resolution model guidance, but pinpointing exact storm activity is a bit more difficult today and these probabilities are still on the low side. Winds breezy, 15-30 knots, stronger and more erratic near any precipitation activity. Winds should weaken overnight into tomorrow morning and become 10 kts or less. CIGs will generally be mid level, with some clouds nearing low level with thunderstorms, lifting and clearing overnight into tomorrow morning. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...CG  575 FXUS62 KMFL 231731 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 131 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 126 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Smoke from wildfires in the area could produce lower visibilities and unhealthy air quality over portions of the Everglades and western suburbs. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms develop again this afternoon and evening, with most of the activity developing over inland areas. An isolated marginally severe storm or two is possible. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The deep trough draped across the eastern US with low pressure centered over the Great Lakes will remain the primary synoptic feature of interest in the short term. While the axis of this trough will not reach South Florida, an upper level shortwave at the base of the trough could provide some extra forcing for ascent as it advects across the area Sunday night into Monday. However, another Saharan Air Layer (SAL) looks to advect into the area as well during this same time frame. The thickness of this SAL is expected to be much less than the previous one, but it will still impact the weather outlook through Monday. In terms of today's setup, a rinse and repeat situation from yesterday appears to be in store as low level flow remains mostly southerly with perhaps a slight southwesterly component. This will keep the focus of convection towards inland South Florida (at least to start) this afternoon before outflow boundaries interact with the sea breezes and produce some storms closer to the coastal metro areas. An isolated severe thunderstorm or two once again cannot be ruled out in the form of downburst winds that are most likely to occur with a storm formed by converging boundaries or cell mergers. Heading into Sunday night and Monday, the intrusion of the drier SAL air mass will result in both mid-level dry air presence and low- level profiles resembling an inverted-V near the surface. This results in steepened low level lapse rates and the potential for a couple of strong to severe storms to develop if an updraft or two can bust through the cap created by the dust layer. With that said, overall convective coverage is expected to be lower than without the dust since the dry air provides some inhibition to convection. The storms that do form though will have chances to become strong to severe. PWATs will still be over 1.5", so some scattered showers and storms are still likely regardless but just not as widespread as days without a SAL presence. High temperatures for today and tomorrow will continue to be in the low to mid 90s. Maximum heat index values will primarily be in the 100-105F range, but many areas will experience brief periods where indices could be up to the 105-110F range. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 For the middle to end of this coming week, surface and low level high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will begin to expand back over the region and cause winds to shift back to an easterly or east-southeast direction. This easterly to east- southeast regime will produce a pattern that is common in the summertime across South Florida with convection being driven by the sea breeze circulations and being steered towards the Gulf coast areas. At the same time, the weak SAL will dissipate by mid-week and allow for the deeper moisture to be utilized for widespread shower and thunderstorm development. Highest rain chances (60-80%) each day will be across Southwest Florida and this will last through the end of the long term period. There will be a chance for an upper level shortwave to develop and advect across the region late in the week, which could cause convection to become widespread across the entire South Florida forecast area. However, uncertainty remains high in regards to this feature. High temperatures are projected to remain in the low to mid 90s each day. Overnight lows range from the low 70s across the interior and lake regions to the upper 70s and low 80s along the coastal metros. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 126 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Winds will continue to slowly become SE across the east coast terminals and they will remain around 10 kts through the afternoon hours. Scattered showers and storms will develop through the afternoon and early evening hours across the interior as well as the east coast. Periods of MVFR or IFR will be possible near storms that develop over the east coast terminals along with gusty and erratic winds. At KAPF, WSW winds will remain near 10 kts this afternoon as a Gulf breeze pushes inland. && .MARINE... Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Light to gentle west-southwest winds are expected across the Gulf waters today and into this coming week with southeasterly winds across the Atlantic. Seas will remain at 1-2 feet or less each day across all of the local waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late each day and in the late night hours over the waters, which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Wildfire activity is being monitored across the region with the latest fire developing near Krome ave and the Miami-Dade/Broward county line. Smoke from this fire is likely to mostly disperse northwards but variable winds can result in smoke dispersing multiple ways. The main impact to watch for is lowered visibilities, particularly in the late night hours as nocturnal inversions form and can trap smoke near the surface, resulting in smog. Other than ongoing activity and the drought across the region assisting in fire risk, weather conditions are generally not suitable for increasing fire development as relative humidity values remain 50-60% at minimum and winds remain on the lighter side. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 92 80 93 / 20 10 10 30 West Kendall 77 92 78 92 / 20 10 0 40 Opa-Locka 79 93 79 93 / 20 10 10 40 Homestead 77 92 79 92 / 10 10 10 30 Fort Lauderdale 80 91 79 91 / 20 10 10 30 N Ft Lauderdale 80 92 79 92 / 20 20 10 30 Pembroke Pines 80 92 79 92 / 20 20 10 40 West Palm Beach 78 93 78 93 / 10 30 10 40 Boca Raton 79 91 79 91 / 10 20 10 30 Naples 78 92 78 93 / 10 30 10 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...CWC  606 FXUS63 KARX 231731 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1231 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pleasant temperatures are on the docket for the upcoming week with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s, warmest for Monday and Tuesday. - The risk for thunderstorms returns for Tuesday afternoon and evening, some of which may be on the stronger side. - Showers may linger in Wisconsin into Wednesday, with the next round of rain not expected until next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 This Afternoon - Monday: Pleasant and Dry, Cool Tonight Northwesterly upper tropospheric flow continues into Monday with surface high pressure gradually sliding across the region between this afternoon and Monday afternoon. Tonight's main forecast concerns revolves around temperatures and fog along and east of the Mississippi River, both of which hinge on the degree of cloud cover that spreads southeastward from northern High Plains convection later this afternoon. The high cirrus shield is not overly thick in the forecast soundings, which could result in a complex scenario where lower temperatures and fog shift in space and time depending on the cloud cover. Should the clouds wane, lows tonight could touch the upper 30s in the favored sand bogs and fog could be dense in the valleys. The alternate scenario is lows stay more in the mid-40s with little fog should the clouds come in thicker. Tuesday Afternoon: Storm Potential Little change to the going forecast for the risk for strong to even severe storms Tuesday afternoon and evening as a notable mid-tropospheric vort max/shortwave crests our upstream ridge and digs into Minnesota. Forecast profiles continue to show a favorable wind profile featuring elongated low to mid-level hodographs normal to the surface front that would support organized supercellular structures. The issue in the more recent medium range soundings has been an EML and deep sub-cloud mixing, which rapidly erode the available instability. Will have to monitor conditions upstream carefully Monday night into Tuesday morning to see if the previous day's convection can modulate this lower tropospheric airmass to support more vigorous updrafts. Even a slight cooling and moistening to these profiles could quickly change how these storms evolve, so stay tuned for further updates. End of the Week: Drier Once Again, Possibly some Weekend Rain A few showers may linger in central Wisconsin on Wednesday within cyclonic flow following our late Tuesday storms, but most of the area should stay dry for the day. Upper level ridging and surface high pressure return for the end of the work week bringing similar conditions as we are seeing to start the week. The pattern grows more active heading into the weekend with the potential for more widespread rainfall in excess of 1 inch. However the position of the synoptic features are not well- resolved and make it difficult to delve into at this range. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are forecast through at least 06Z tonight with the only forecast concern being the development of IFR/LIFR fog in valleys and low-lying locales, mainly east of the Mississippi River. This fog should quickly burn off within an hour or two after sunrise on Monday with VFR conditions for the rest of the day. Winds will remain from the northwest at 5-10kts this afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight and into Monday. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Skow AVIATION...Skow  436 FXUS65 KBOI 231730 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1130 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and slightly cooler Sunday, then several degrees warmer again Monday. - A slight chance of thunderstorms along NV border today south of Twin Falls. && .SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday Night/... Issued 338 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026 A weak cold front has moved through the area overnight, bringing drier air into much of the area. Isolated showers and thunderstorms across the Magic Valley and Boise Mountains this morning but will taper off in a few hours as the front moves east. Isolated thunderstorms will redevelop this afternoon across southern Twin Falls County, with gusty outflow winds possible. The ridge will strengthen over the area Monday and Tuesday with slightly warmer temperatures. A pair of weak shortwaves embedded in the southwest flow aloft will bring increased clouds on Monday and Tuesday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will generally be confined to the higher terrain Monday afternoon and again on Tuesday afternoon. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/... Issued 338 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Dry through the long term. A trough off the Pac NW coast pushes the monsoon moisture east on Wednesday with drier air, breezy conditions and slightly cooler temperatures Thursday through Sunday. Temperatures will around 2-5 degrees above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /18Z Sunday through Monday/... Issued 1130 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026 VFR. Isolated thunderstorms south and east of KTWF this afternoon. Thunderstorms capable of outflows of 30-40 kt. Surface winds: W-NW 10-20 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 10-25 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: NW 7-12 kt with gusts to around 18 kt this afternoon. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....NF SHORT TERM...KA LONG TERM....KA  571 FXUS66 KMFR 231731 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1031 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New Aviation Section... .AVIATION (18Z TAFs)... The marine layer is beginning to dissipate and should allow for a period of VFR conditions this afternoon for KOTH. However, expecting the marine layer to redevelop tonight and bring another round of IFR conditions overnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected for inland TAF sites, and typical diurnal winds expected today/tonight with some high clouds potentially infiltrating the region overnight. -Guerrero && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 122 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026/ KEY MESSAGES... * Quiet weather is expected for the next several days, with seasonal warmth continuing for most areas. * Temperatures peak about 5 to 10 degrees above normal on Monday before returning to seasonal levels near midweek. * There will be a slight chance (15-20 percent) of thunderstorms over far eastern Lake and Modoc counties Monday afternoon. DISCUSSION...An upper trough is passing overhead today, which will help to keep temperatures at seasonal levels. The trough will then pass to the northeast tonight into Monday, allowing the Four-Corners ridge to retrograde just a bit to the west. The northwestern periphery of this ridge will nudge in overhead Monday into Tuesday, while a thermal trough redevelops along the coast. This will warm temperatures by about 5 to 10 degrees, producing warmer than normal late August highs,and keeping the area dry. There is a slight chance that increased moisture entering the area within the southwest flow aloft could interact with a weak impulse, producing some weak instability, and an isolated shower or thunderstorm or two is possible over eastern Modoc and southeastern Lake counties, mainly along the Warner and Hart mountains, where lifting will be slightly stronger. The warming of Monday and Tuesday will be shortlived, however, as another trough digs southward offshore of British Columbia, arriving off the coast of the Pacific Northwest by midweek. The trough will push the ridge to the east, bringing temperatures back to more seasonal levels for the remainder of the week. Minor disturbances in the persistent southwest upper-level flow next week may result in breezy to gusty afternoon winds at times, especially if another dry front or two pass through the area. Latest guidance suggests this would most likely occur around Wednesday, and again over the weekend. Otherwise, quiet, seasonable weather is expected through the remainder of the month. AVIATION...23/12Z TAFs...A mix of IFR and MVFR marine stratus over the Oregon coast and into the lower Umpqua Valley will persist through this morning, with areas of drizzle likely for areas along and west of the coastal mountains. MVFR ceilings have already pushed well into the Umpqua Basin early this morning. Improvement to VFR will be slow, with many areas not clearing to VFR until early afternoon, and the immediate coast not expected to fully clear at all. IFR/LIFR is expected to develop at the immediate coast, Coquille Valley, and lower Umpqua Valley after 04Z this evening. Otherwise, inland areas will remain VFR through the TAF period, with mostly clear skies. Winds will increase again this afternoon, but will be weaker than in recent days with gusts mainly at 10 to 15 kt. MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Sunday, August 23, 2026...Southerly winds will shift to the north and increase this morning as a thermal trough develops along the coast. Gusty north winds and steep wind- driven seas will persist through Monday morning. The main belt of stronger winds will push into the outer waters Monday afternoon and evening, with a southerly surge of wind and fog along the inner waters Monday night into Tuesday. Generally light winds and calm seas are then expected through Friday with low pressure persisting over the northeastern Pacific. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ370-376. && $$  675 FXUS62 KGSP 231733 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 133 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Dry weather with comfortable humidity levels through Tuesday. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances return Wednesday and continue through the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Dry weather with comfortable humidity levels through Tuesday. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances return Wednesday and continue through the rest of the week. Amplified upper pattern will persist over the CONUS through the first half of this week, with deep anticyclone remaining centered near New Mexico and closed low oer the eastern periphery of the Great Lakes. At the surface we will be on the cool side of a front stalled in the I-20 corridor. Today and Monday the pattern will support northwest winds, advecting dry continental air into the region. Profiles are unfavorable for deep convection with only shallow cumulus expected. Cold advection will be offset by insolation and downslope flow, such that daytime temperatures run near normal. Afternoon mixing should maintain low dewpoints in the lower 60s or even upper 50s. Overnight lows will be a few degrees below normal on account of the lower dewpoints and good radiational cooling conditions. The upper pattern becomes less amplified over the area by Tuesday as the closed low drifts further east and its influence over the southern Appalachians diminishes. Broadly cyclonic flow will remain over the eastern half of the CONUS. Most guidance shows weak northerly winds at the surface, though winds aloft begin to favor southwest in response to more influence of the Plains ridge, and some moisture return aloft. In turn dewpoints rebound a bit though still mainly in the lower to mid 60s, while temperatures will remain near normal. This looks unlikely to have much impact on convective chances; more models/ensemble members depict our whole area remaining dry through Tuesday compared to yesterday's runs. Weak sfc high in the Midwest is expected to fill and drift east by Wednesday; heights fall slightly aloft in the mid-MS Valley in advance of the next shortwave rotating into the broad trough. These changes effectively reactivate the front and bring it northward into our area; dewpoints and temps rise and diurnal showers/storms again appear possible. Interaction between the shortwave and the front suggests a continuing chance of showers/storms overnight into Thursday (when precip chances are greatest between now and next weekend). Though there are indications the passage of that shortwave may push the front back to our south and east at least briefly, it appears unlikely airmass change will occur. Hence we will remain seasonably hot and humid through the end of the period with a chance for primarily diurnal convection each day. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: A few low VFR cumulus will be seen around the area this afternoon. Winds will be predominantly out of the NE over the NC sites this afternoon and probably at the SC sites as well, though the latter are close enough to the stalled front south of the region that they have been SW'ly at times so far today. KAND should turn to NW for a time late afternoon, and KAVL will remain NW due to valley channeling, but otherwise all sites should be mainly NE overnight when not calm/VRB. Valley fog likely at least briefly at KAVL but otherwise VFR around the area thru the remainder of the period. Winds should mix to NW again by late Monday morning. Outlook: No significant chance of convection until Wednesday with an even better chance on Thursday. Mountain valley fog and low stratus is possible each morning. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ JCW  670 FXUS63 KDMX 231733 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1233 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather continues today with highs in upper 70s to lower 80s. Areas of patchy morning fog remain possible. - Rain chances return Sunday night into Monday morning (40- 50%), mainly across western Iowa. Severe weather is not anticipated. - Early signs of a somewhat more active weather pattern next weekend, with a return of more persistent rain chances but any details still unclear at this range. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 218 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Saturday was arguably the best day in August so far! Highs climbed into the upper 70s to lower 80s across the state with dew points generally in the 50s and 60s making for a pleasant afternoon. Surface high pressure remains in place across the Central Plains this morning, keeping conditions calm across the Upper Midwest. With the high ushering dry air across central iowa, skies remain mostly clear tonight allowing for efficient radiational cooling. Lows overnight are expected to drop into the upper 50s across southern Iowa and lower 50s north. Given clear skies and calm winds, areas of patchy fog remain possible overnight- primarily along low lying river valleys, with minimal impacts as fog should remain fairly wispy. As we head into late morning, fog will burn off and cloud cover will increase from western Iowa ahead of our next incoming disturbance. The 500 MB trough centered over Ontario will begin shifting eastward, flattening the northern edge of the Four Corners ridge that has been anchored for past few days. Consequently, short range guidance indicates a shortwave emerging off the Rockies, pushing unsettled weather across the High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. This will allow rain chances to return to western and central Iowa as early as Sunday night. The main forecast challenge is the timing of initial rain onset, as forecast soundings show a very dry layer in the lower to mid levels. While short range guidance attempts to introduce showers into western Iowa as early as Sunday afternoon, precipitation chances were kept out of the daytime forecast due to the strong signal of dry air keeping initial returns as virga. Overnight, a strengthening LLJ will push into western iowa, enhancing low level moisture transport and saturating the column top down. The highest precipitation chances (40-50%) will align near the jet axis, with chances dropping of eastward toward the Des Moines to Davenport corridor (30-10%) where the deep layer saturation is harder to achieve. If the jet shifts further east, rain chances will need to bumped up accordingly. Rain chances gradually diminish into Monday afternoon. Severe Weather is not anticipated with this round due to negligible instability, with activity expected to remain mostly showers and an isolated storm or two. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 By Monday night the eastern 500 MB trough will have shifted over Quebec, while the western one crosses from Saskatchewan into Manitoba, then subsequently shifts east southeastward into the Lake Superior region by Wednesday. In Iowa this will be concurrent with a very light surface pressure/flow pattern, resulting in nebulous low rain chances at times from Monday night into Wednesday. As the 500 MB trough moves over Lake Superior, it will help push a large surface high pressure area down the northern High Plains and Midwest during this time, later bringing relatively comfortable and dry weather from around Wednesday night through Friday. The onset of the influence of this surface ridge will take the form of a modest trough, pushing through ahead of the main mid-level shortwave sometime around Tuesday night. Differences in timing and the sharpness of the trough lead to a high variability in model solutions, however, there does appear to be some potential for good destabilization on Tuesday afternoon/evening and also potential for moderate deep-layer (0-6 KM) shear of perhaps 30-35 KT or so. Again, there is significant variability in these solutions and much will depend on diurnal timing, but it is possible if the trough has enough low-level convergence and comes through during peak diurnal heating time, there may be a narrow window of opportunity for pulse storms with a severe weather threat late Tuesday. A more likely scenario, however, is that the trough comes through overnight with much less instability and/or weaker shear, or that the trough is too weak and low-level convergence is not sufficient to support stronger updrafts, or both. By next weekend, the 500 MB pattern should begin to shift just a bit, with the ridge flattening and shifting a bit toward the southwestern U.S., while a more zonal flow pattern sets up across the northern CONUS and Iowa. This would favor a somewhat more active weather regime in our region, with persistent rain chances likely returning. Of course that is still a week-plus out, but something to keep an eye on in the coming days. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are forecast with no aviation impacts anticipated. There is a very low (10-20%) chance of light rain at FOD/DSM late tonight into Monday, but between the low probability and the lack of notable impacts even if it were to occur, have not mentioned in the 18Z TAFs. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TDR LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...Lee  674 FXUS63 KDTX 231733 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 133 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy and cooler conditions arrive today with scattered showers through Sunday night. - Dry weather Monday into Tuesday with a warming trend. The next chance of showers and storms is possible late Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION... Low pressure continues to occlude over the Ontario/Quebec border, with cyclonic gradient flow on the backside of the low peaking around 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Wrap-around moisture pairs with lake moisture flux to support low VFR ceilings through most of the TAF period as well. Isolated shower coverage peaks through the diurnal cycle followed by a window of decreasing cloud coverage to SCT-FEW this evening. A second pool of moisture over central Ontario releases south tonight into Monday, bringing another opportunity for low VFR cigs. The airspace will be on the outer edge of the moisture gradient meaning fluctuations in coverage will be possible throughout the day. Otherwise, breezy west-northwest winds and dry conditions expected Monday. D21/DTW Convection... very low potential for an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Moderate to high for ceiling 5000 feet or less today and tonight. * Very low for an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 DISCUSSION... A series of embedded shortwave maxima will dig directly into the central Great Lakes bolstering a closed 560 dam H5 trough through Monday night. Progs show 850mb temperatures bottoming out at +7C which will largely support high temperatures in the lower to upper 70s range the next couple of days, some 3 to 6 degrees below normal. Beefiest of the absolute vorticity maxima will arrive this afternoon with a direct path into the cwa while turning to a negative tilt. Forecast environmental profile shows main limiting factor for today will be very modest midlevel lapse rate structure at 5.5 C/km preceding the absolute vorticity. NWP supports upward vertical motion beginning to deepen after 18z with height falls rapidly pushing to the southeast of Southeast Michigan. Will require a good amount of lift to fight off the subsidence and all signs suggest shower and possible thunderstorm activity being relegated to the far southeast cwa mainly between 21-00z. Guidance looks again underdone. Again, modest lapse rates do not suggest much CAPE density this afternoon and no severe weather is expected. Closed low pushes eastward leading to 1000-500mb geopotential height rises and surface high pressure Monday. Only real item of note will be the potential for early to mid morning rain showers possible for the northern Thumb region/Huron County as good model signal exists for highly cyclonic flow and confluence downwind of Saginaw Bay and Lake Huron. Great day Tuesday for outdoor interests with high around 80 and surface dewpoints in the 50s. High confidence in very favorable weather with upper level confluent flow supporting strong surface ridging. Broad upper level jet streak and associated absolute vorticity wave packet is forecasted to push into the Great Lakes region Wednesday and Thursday. Uncertainty exists on most likely time window for precipitation onset as there will be a dry column preceding the wave. Temperatures are expected to be near late August averages Thursday and Friday. MARINE... Breezy post-frontal northwest flow to persist today and into the better part of tomorrow as cooler air is ushered into the Great Lakes. Sustained winds of 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots are expected, the strongest of which will be foundacross north- central and central Lake Huron where the fetch is more favorable. Some isolated gust potential to low-end gales cannot be ruled out for Lake Huron, but will preclude any Gale headlines given very low confidence to achieve any prolonged period of gales. Otherwise, rain showers and some isolated thunderstorms will be possible today along with a very low chance for a waterspout, most favorable across Lake Huron. High pressure will start to build into the region late tomorrow and will settle over the Great Lakes by Tuesday. Process of this high pressure moving in will start to relax wind speeds and gusts, leading to light winds by Tuesday. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday afternoon for MIZ049. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for LHZ421-441>443. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for LHZ422. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....MV DISCUSSION...CB MARINE.......CB You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  624 FXUS63 KEAX 231732 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1232 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and slightly less humid today. - Showers and thunderstorms possible to likely late tonight into Monday morning. Locally moderate to heavy rainfall may be possible. - Warmer temperatures (but seasonal) expected to return Tuesday and continue through the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 329 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Northwesterly flow aloft remains entrenched over the region between high amplitude ridging across the Rockies and western CONUS and troughing across the Great Lakes and into Appalachia. At the surface, high pressure remains in place over the region, yielding nearly calm winds with some high clouds streaming north to south overhead. All in all a very pleasant late August day is expected today, with afternoon high temperatures only forecast to reach the lower 80s for most locations. More importantly, good mixing into a dry airmass should allow for dew points to drop to the upper 50s to lower 60s this afternoon, making for quite comfortable humidity levels. Quite a bit of mid to high level cloud cover is likely to move in by late this morning, with some isolated elevated showers possible by this afternoon across eastern KS into far western MO. However, with relatively dry low levels, quite a bit of evaporation is likely. As we head into tonight, a shortwave trough is progged to translate across the Dakotas into Iowa along the northeastern periphery of the upper ridge. Meanwhile, a southeasterly oriented low level jet will develop late tonight into early Monday morning. This will usher in moisture return, with PWATs increasing significantly from this afternoon into late tonight, primarily across eastern KS into western MO. These features should also help generate showers and thunderstorms across the region late tonight into Monday morning, however, CAMs differ considerably with respect to the exact evolution and intensity of these showers and storms. The 06z HRRR is the least excited about any flash flood potential, with total accumulations generally less than half an inch. However, the 06z NAM Nest suggests the potential for pockets of 1-2 (and perhaps more) inches, although the NAM Nest PWATs are significantly higher than other models and seem a bit unrealistic. The 06z RRFS is somewhere between the HRRR and the NAM Nest. All that to say that there does seem to be at least some low end potential for locally moderate to heavy rainfall late tonight into Monday morning, and WPC has maintained the marginal risk for excessive rainfall across eastern KS into far western MO. Convection should dissipate/exit south of the CWA by late Monday morning, with dry conditions expected for the remainder of the day and afternoon high temperatures ranging from the lower 80s across northern MO to the mid 80s elsewhere. As we head into Tuesday and the rest of the week, the western ridge should remain in place, with northwesterly flow aloft continuing over the CWA as troughing remains over Ontario/Quebec and into the NE CONUS. This will result in afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s through the week and occasional low end (20 to 30%) chances for showers/storms as disturbances and vort maxes translate through the northwesterly flow on the northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions through the period. There could be a few sprinkled this afternoon along and west of the MO/KS state line. Towards 06Z, could see some scattered showers and storms develop. These storms should be based near 10K feet agl, so little to no visibility resriction is expected near the surface. &&.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Williams AVIATION...BT  615 FXUS63 KLMK 231731 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 131 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry and pleasant conditions are expected for today through Tuesday. * Warmer temperatures (mid to upper 80s) and low chances for showers and storms return by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 316 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Light winds, clear skies, and recent precip over eastern areas has allowed for river valley fog to develop. This fog will burn off by mid-morning. High pressure at the surface and northwesterly flow aloft will be the main features over the region through Tuesday. This will bring cooler temperatures and drier conditions. Looking to see lows each morning in the upper 50s and low 60s and highs in the low-to-mid 80s. Dew points will remain in the mid 50s through most of the day, which will allow for very comfortable conditions. Guidance has trended drier through this short term, keeping the warm front to the southwest of the region. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 316 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 High pressure will move off to the east and the warm front will push northeast into central Kentucky on Wednesday. This will bring better moisture to broad troughing aloft. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. Additionally, temperatures look to return to normal in the upper 80s for Wednesday. On Thursday, an amplifying trough will move through the Ohio Valley and bring a cold front with it. This front will bring another chance for showers and storms on Thursday and into Friday. At this time, forecast soundings show weak shear and ample instability. So there is a possibility that a few storms become strong. Though, severe weather is not expected at this time. Behind the cold front, drier air is expected to build into the region. Temperatures will likely stay around normal in the upper 80s for highs through the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions and light NW winds generally 5-10 kt are expected to continue this afternoon and evening. Winds should become light and variable overnight, with VFR conditions likely at most terminals. There is a chance for MVFR or lower visibilities due to patchy fog before sunrise Monday, mainly at HNB, though confidence in this is low given drier air mixing down this afternoon. Light winds and VFR conditions are expected again during the day on Monday. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRW LONG TERM...SRW AVIATION...CSG  714 FXUS61 KALY 231735 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 135 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into early this evening. A few storms may become severe. 2) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday and Tuesday, especially near and north of I-90. Temperatures will be below normal. 3) Chances of showers and thunderstorms return later this week, along with temperatures warming back to normal. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... An upper level trough over our region will deepen today, with a closed low centered near Georgian Bay. Occluded front steadily progressing eastward across our area this afternoon, which is providing some forcing, along with falling heights aloft for showers and some thunderstorms to continue developing. There remains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms across the entire region today. CAMs and radar trends indicating storm mode to be mainly cells/cluster, with perhaps a few lines developing as shear increases later this afternoon. Breaks of sunshine have allowed for destabilization. SPC Mesoanalysis page indicating SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/Kg and effective shear of 30-35 kt. Environment is conducive for isolated severe storms, with mainly damaging wind gusts and perhaps an instance of large hail if storms can grow tall enough. Convection should dissipate shortly after sunset this evening, as instability wanes and a small-scale low level ridge builds in from the west. KEY MESSAGE 2... The core of an anomalously strong upper level low (500 mb height anomalies of -2 to -3 STDEV) will gradually track east near the far southern Ontario/Quebec border on Mon. A short wave disturbance rotating around the periphery of the upper low core is expected to move across our area. This will result in additional mainly scattered showers and a few T-storms Mon afternoon into early evening. Coverage looks to be most numerous across the Adirondacks, where there will be upslope/lake-effect enhancement with a cold core aloft moving overhead and W-SW flow developing over a very warm Lake Ontario (surface temperatures +20C to 22C). Due to anticipated low-topped convection associated with limited instability < 700 J/Kg, the threat for severe storm is low. However, there is potential for a few storms to produce small hail and/or gusty winds due to steepening lapse rates beneath the cold core aloft. The core of the upper low will track NE across southern Quebec on Tue, as the trailing trough axis moves east across our region. This will result in additional showers developing, although there should be lower coverage compared to Mon except over the W. Adirondacks where lake-effect/upslope enhancement will persist. It will become breezy, with westerly winds gusting 20-25 mph at times in favored areas. Temperatures will remain below normal through Tuesday. KEY MESSAGE 3... Tranquil weather returns on Wed, as the upper level trough finally shifts east and high pressure builds in across the region. Unsettled conditions look to return on Thu, as the next upper level trough approaches from the west. Potential for multiple disturbances and surface fronts make timing details difficult this far out, but there is at least enough confidence to mention likely showers/T-storms developing Thu afternoon/evening. There may end up being a threat for some severe storms depending on timing and sufficient instability/shear. Will continue to monitor trends over the next few days. The broad upper level trough still looks to be in place on Fri, so there will be continued threat for showers/T-storms. Coverage may not be as much as Thu if the main cold front pushes east of the region by Fri morning. Temperatures should warm back to normal levels Wed-Fri as well. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 18z Monday...Cig heights have risen to mainly VFR levels early this afternoon, except at KPSF where MVFR cigs will likely linger for the next few hours. By 20z, mainly VFR conditions will prevail however scattered SHRA/TSRA will develop, with a few periods of MVFR vsby/cigs and possibly even brief IFR. Will mention PROB30 for MVFR due to anticipated scattered coverage. SHRA/TSRA should dissipate by 00z. Mid level clouds expected to gradually scour out enough for fog to develop overnight, with highest confidence in at least occasional IFR conditions at KGFL/KPSF. Lower confidence at KALB/KPOU, so will mention MVFR possible there. Any fog should dissipate by 12z Monday, with VFR conditions returning. Winds will initially be south-southwest around 5-10 kt, although stronger gusts may occur within any TSRA. Winds tonight will become variable at less than 5 kt. Outlook... Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...07  719 FXUS63 KGID 231735 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1235 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms move through the area today. Severe weather is unlikely. - Additional showers and thunderstorms redevelop tonight into Monday morning, although coverage will be more spotty. The threat for severe weather remains low. - Monday will be mostly dry (and warmer) with only a low chance for thunderstorms late Monday night into Tuesday morning. - Better chances for thunderstorms return on Tuesday, along with an increasing threat for severe weather. && .UPDATE... Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 As of 3am, coverage of showers and storms is starting to increase over the Sandhills. This trend is expected to continue as the showers/storms slide through central Nebraska/Kansas this morning. Nearly the entire area should see SOME rain, although amounts will be on the lighter side (less than 0.25" for most). Most locations will dry out this afternoon, although a few showers/storms could linger east of Highway 281 through 3-4pm. Plenty of cloud cover will keep temperatures noticeably cooler. Some spots may struggle to reach 75 degrees, although western zones should see enough clearing to at least reach/exceed 80 degrees. This evening, isolated convection is anticipated the Sandhills, but this should weaken as it moves into central Nebraska. Later overnight, more widespread (but non-severe) convection is expected to redevelop in the warm-air advection regime over eastern Nebraska. This would favor the northeastern half of the area. After early morning storms exit the area, dry conditions are anticipated for the rest of Monday. This should allow temperatures to rebound back closer to normal (80s to the low 90s). A few thunderstorms could slide in from the west early Tuesday morning. The primary severe threat should remain to our west on Tuesday morning. Redevelopment is then likely later in the day as an upper shortwave moves into the area, and some of this could become severe. As such, the SPC has introduced a "Marginal" to "Slight" risk across almost the entire the forecast area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Currently... The day started out on the wet side for a good chunk of the forecast area...as yet another upper level shortwave disturbance (aided by increased lower-level convergence) made its way across the region...with a couple spots producing wind gusts around 60 MPH. That activity exited the area around mid- morning...leaving behind a pretty nice day with plenty of sun. Upper air and satellite data showing continued northwesterly flow in place across the Central Plains this afternoon as the pattern remains well amplified across the CONUS. The main ridge axis extends north through the Rockies from high pressure centered mainly over CO/NM...sandwiched between areas of low pressure/southward extending troughing over northern Ontario and just off the Pac NW coast. At the surface...a large area of high pressure is centered over near the ND/Canada border, with its axis extending south roughly along the MO River. This is keeping winds across the forecast area easterly, with speeds on the lighter side, around 10-15 MPH. No big surprises as far as temperatures go...with mid afternoon readings in the low-mid 80s. This evening on into Sunday... Quiet conditions this afternoon will continue on into the evening hours, before precipitation chances ramp back up later tonight. Off to our west...radar and satellite imagery showing scattered storms developing over the Rockies, as another shortwave disturbance rides around the edge of the ridge, and aided by east-southeasterly lower-level upslope flow. The main question as the late evening-overnight hours pass is how much of this activity is sustained long enough to move into our forecast area. Kept the forecast dry through 06Z...and some of the hi-res models suggest it'd be even later than that by a few hours before activity creeps into our western edge. Aided by lift along an increased, but not overly strong, SSErly low level jet...models are in pretty good agreement showing at least scattered activity making it into the forecast area. The timing may end up not too different than last night with the onset being around 09Z...but models suggest that activity lingers around the area longer, potentially not until early-mid afternoon before sliding off to our east. This activity is not expected to be severe...models still showing that while deeper layer shear isn't bad (30-35ish kts), the main axis of better instability focused just off to our west...so the SPC Day 1 outlook areas remain both west and south of the area. Once the activity pushes east, the rest of the day Sunday is dry, but will likely see more cloud cover linger longer into the day...especially across the eastern half of the area. This would impact high potential for the day...forecast currently has mid 70s in the east to mid 80s in the west (where more sun is possible). Between the sfc high shifting more to our east and low pressure deepening over the High Plains...winds are expected to turn more southerly for Sunday...with the potential for gusts near 20 MPH across areas mainly west of HWY 281. Later Sunday night into the overnight hours...little overall change in the upper level pattern means there will the potential for yet another shortwave disturbance to bring additional storm chances to the area. Main difference during this period is that models still suggesting this disturbance tracks a bit further north (as does better convergence along the LLJ)...and along with warmer mid-level temps the further SW you go, result in these chances more of a glancing shot, focused across the NNErn third or so of the forecast area. Severe weather chances remain low through Sunday night- early Mon AM. Monday and on... Outside of any lingering activity early in the morning, the daytime and at least early evening hours on Monday remain dry. Models showing little movement in the location of the main upper level area high of high pressure and northward extending ridging into the Rockies...but do show that area of low pressure currently off the Pac NW pushing further inland...sliding through the southern half of Saskatchewan during the daytime hours. Precipitation chances do return to the forecast late Monday night-Tuesday AM...but remain low (20-30 percent) as models vary with how much (if any?) activity impacts the forecast area, with the better upper level forcing well to our NW. Later Tuesday (more the evening/overnight hours) may bring better thunderstorm chances to the area...as that main upper low is working its way more into MN, with the trough axis draped further SW into the region. Storms may initially focus along an accompanying sfc frontal boundary (though it's not a strong one)...later aided by an increasing LLJ. Still plenty of uncertainty and details to iron out...as being this far south of the main upper low doesn't do the precip coverage any favors, and with the sfc front and LLJ potentially not overly strong, there are difference with just much activity there ends up being. The rest of the week continues to sound like a broken record...upper level pattern remaining northwesterly (potentially more zonal next weekend), with periodic shortwave disturbances bringing additional precipitation chances (mainly focused in the evening/overnight hours). As far as temperatures go for the new work week...not any significant changes, and not expecting any notable swings. Forecast highs remain mainly in the 80s, with some 90s working into WSWrn areas. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder will continue to be a concern at both terminal sites to start off this TAF period...looking to only linger a couple more hours. Dry conditions are expected by mid-late afternoon, lasting into the evening hours...and possibly the rest of this period. The concern for any additional precipitation chances lies mainly with the KGRI terminal after midnight. Models continue to show the potential for another round of scattered activity developing, with the better chances across north central and eastern portions of NE. There are difference between models with how far west the back edge of that activity gets...with some showing it not out of the question some could affect KGRI...so decided to go with a PROB30 group from 07-11Z. Upcoming forecasts will have new model data to see how things trend. As far as winds go, winds through the period look to be generally south- southeasterly. For the most part, speeds top out around 10-15 MPH, but some gusts closer to 20 MPH are not out of the question through this afternoon. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Mangels DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...ADP  691 FXUS63 KGRB 231734 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1234 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry through Monday, with rain chances (50-80%) Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. The risk of widespread severe weather is low. - Chilly with lows into the 30s north-central WI tonight. Otherwise temperatures most of this week will be near or slightly above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Near term through Monday...NW flow persists to the west of deep troughing over the central and eastern Great Lakes. Cooler air aloft the warmer lakes and daytime heating will result in blossoming cu this afternoon. Moisture appears too shallow to conjure up any showers, though a few sprinkles could occur. Northern Door most favored for those. Northwest winds will be gusty again this afternoon, but will back off quickly this evening. As winds become light and skies clear, temps will drop quickly, with mid 30s in favored cold spots of north-central WI, low-mid 40s central WI into far northeast WI, and upper 40s to near 50 from the Fox Valley to the lakeshore. Some very patchy ground fog will be possible late tonight into Monday morning, especially across central and northern WI. It could be cool enough for sheltered areas in the far north to see some brief patchy frost late tonight. Mostly sunny on Monday with light winds. Showers and some storms Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening...Sharp shortwave trough with cold front drop into northern MN Tuesday afternoon before shifting across WI and MI through Wednesday. Pooling instability along the front late Tuesday may allow a small severe risk into far northwest portions of cwa very late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Various ML sources point to this, but even so, stronger signal stays farther into northwest WI and northern MN. That said, showers and storms will probably not completely die off later Tuesday night as they move east given a persistent LLJ and some elevated instability with the stronger system. Does appear that models are coming into better agreement with faster fropa on Wednesday, pushing the primary severe risk farther east. Enough cool air aloft with the trough to result in chance pops northeast and eastern WI through peak heating on Wednesday. Thus, suppose an isolated strong to severe storm is not off the table. Chances for showers and storms on Thursday have decreased as core of upper trough and cooler air aloft has shifted farther north. Pops for Thursday now sitting at less than 10 percent. Extended...Next chances for showers and storms (20-40%) eases back into the area from the southwest for the weekend as flow aloft becomes more zonal. Early look, but signal for greatest instability and severe/heavy rain potential remains southwest plains to the upper mississippi river valley. Temperatures...After the chilly conditions tonight, temperatures the rest of the week look to be near normal or slightly above normal. Warmest days with highs in the low-mid 80s would be Tuesday and/or Wednesday ahead of and near the frontal boundary moving through. Warmest night in the 60s much of the area will be Tuesday night with clouds, showers and some wind. Lows could drop back into the 40s again late this week over the north. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Other than patchy ground for (mainly MVFR vsby) central and north-central WI late tonight, plan on VFR conditions through the TAF period. Higher based cu will clear out tonight, with just wispy cirrus at times. Skies will remain mostly clear on Monday, with little in way of cu compared to last two days. Northwest winds will gust between 13-18 kts this afternoon, then become light and variable this evening. Winds on Monday will be light, topping out at 5 to 10 kts during the afternoon. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....JLA AVIATION.......JLA  688 FXUS63 KSGF 231734 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1234 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri tonight into Monday morning. Damaging wind to 60 mph is the primary severe weather hazard, with quarter size hail being a secondary hazard. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding are also possible. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Today: Mainly looking at a dry day given a very dry airmass in place and capping, but there is a <20% chance of showers/storms this afternoon that would struggle to see noteworthy precip reaching the ground through the dry air. Highs will range from the low to mid 80s NE to the low to mid 90s SW. Afternoon dew points in the mid 50s to low 60s will prevent heat concerns. Tonight into Monday morning: As has been advertised, 1-2 mid- level waves will move through the area under NW flow aloft. A mid-level jet will develop, promoting ascent over the CWA (favoring the SW CWA at this time). The mid-level jet will also result in the development of a SE low level jet that will nose into the area. An 850mb front will also be in place over the SW CWA, oriented from NW to SE. All these features will allow for widespread elevated thunderstorms to develop, as shown by most models and ensembles. 30-40 kts of effective shear and elevated instability will allow for strong updraft development and potential for hail to the size of quarters and the greater threat of 60 mph winds given 500-1,000 J/kg of DCAPE. Greatest potential/coverage is expected later tonight into Monday morning. Another threat for tonight into Monday morning is locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Generally slow storm movement and motions parallel to the 850mb front will favor training convection. HREF LPMM is showing 3-6 inches of rain, so we will advertise that as the localized rainfall amounts under the heaviest storms. 6 hourly flash flood guidance is around that same 3-6 inch value, so only expecting isolated flooding that does not warrant a flood watch at this time. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 With the area remaining in northwesterly flow throughout the week, we'll see periodic low-end chances (15-30%) for showers/storms. Daily highs should generally remain in the mid 80s to low 90s (northeast CWA) to the mid 90s (southwest CWA). && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Mid and high level clouds will increase from the north this afternoon and evening as an upper level disturbance moves south through region tonight. A few rain showers will be possible this evening as the disturbance moves into the area. Brief MVFR visibilities could be possible with the heavier showers. Tonight into Monday morning bands of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri, with the 10-14Z times is when the best coverage should occur, but it is possible for isolated convection prior to 10Z and for some linger shower and maybe a few storms after 14Z Monday morning. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Titus LONG TERM...Titus AVIATION...Wise  717 FXUS64 KBRO 231735 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1235 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1232 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Unseasonably hot and rain-free conditions are expected to continue through this next week. - Moderate (level 2 of 4) to Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk could increase to areas of Extreme (level 4 of 4) Heat Risk throughout the upcoming week. - A combination of dry fuels, low relative humidity, and hot temperatures could lead to elevated fire danger risks over the next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Strong upper-level ridging over West Texas and the Desert Southwest is expected to remain dominant over the next week, keeping conditions hot and dry over Deep South Texas. Temperatures are expected to be unseasonably hot, with high temperatures reaching the triple digits each day. Heat Risk will be a concern too, with Moderate (level 2 of 4) and Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk possibly increasing to Extreme (level 4 of 4) by the weekend. Heat indices are generally expected to be between 105 to 110, though some areas could briefly see higher values exceeding 111 throughout the week. Hot temperatures, dry fuels, and low relative humidities over the next few days will also enhance the potential for fire weather, particularly through the early and middle parts of this week. This could lead to rapid wildfire spread. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions at all airports with light to moderate southeasterly winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Favorable marine conditions are expected throughout the week with low wave heights (1 to 2 feet) and light to moderate southeasterly winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 98 79 98 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 76 102 75 102 / 0 10 0 0 MCALLEN 79 104 79 104 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 76 104 76 104 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 89 81 90 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 96 78 97 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55-MM LONG TERM....55-MM AVIATION...55-MM  709 FXUS64 KOHX 231735 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1235 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1232 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Drier with cooler evening and overnight periods through Tuesday. Fog is possible across the river valleys each morning. - Low to medium rain and storm chances, mainly mid week, with seasonal temperatures that continue into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Water vapor imagery shows a broad area of drier air aloft and northwesterly flow across the region and we finally got a taste of cooler, drier air this morning behind the front that moved through last night. This is a welcomed air mass which will promote continued stable conditions and cooler evenings and overnights through Monday as high pressure moves to our north. We currently do not have any mentionable rain chances through the short-term as a result. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Medium-range guidance and ensembles suggest little change in the background weather pattern through the upcoming week. Generally speaking, ridging will remain out west with a trough across the east. However, the trough should slowly move east mid to late week which will allow for a bit of moisture return from the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will foster showers and a few thunderstorms mid week. Better coverage of convection is possible with passing shortwaves progged during this timeframe and we'll have to see if we get any severe weather since we'll remain in modest mid-level flow. Too early to tell right now. Overall the temperature forecast is pretty close to seasonal norms mid to late week and guidance is on the drier side late week into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Fair weather cumulus clouds are developing across Middle TN, but shower and storm chances will be very low this afternoon and evening. Low fog chances across the Plateau after 06z. Winds remain light out of the N, alternating between NW to NE through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 62 89 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 61 87 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 58 82 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 63 90 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 60 84 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 59 82 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 62 88 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 62 89 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 63 87 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sizemore LONG TERM....Sizemore AVIATION.....Cravens  775 FXUS61 KCLE 231736 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 136 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the upcoming forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cooler weather with occasional lake effect rain showers across parts of Northeast OH and Northwest PA into early this week. Locally heavy rainfall is possible, mainly this evening. Elsewhere, scattered showers are possible this afternoon and evening before a prolonged period of drier weather arrives. 2 Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Wednesday night through Thursday night. Currently, the potential for severe weather and/or heavy rainfall appears minimal. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Surface low pressure across southern Ontario and an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes are expected to become closed off and more vertically stacked while drifting east through tonight. The system will begin to gradually weaken starting on Monday while only slowly exiting through southeast Canada and New England. High pressure will gradually build into the Ohio Valley and eventually across the local area early this week, though lingering influence from the departing closed low won't totally exit our northeastern counties until Tuesday. The primary weather impact from the departing system will be lake effect/enhanced rain showers occasionally streaming off of Lake Erie into parts of Northeast OH and Northwest PA. Lake water temperatures are near 25C on average, so as 850mb temperatures bottom out at 6-8C late today and tonight, with 700mb temperatures dipping to just below 0C and 500mb temperatures bottoming out around -20C, impressive and deep instability will be in place over the late summer lake waters. Flow will generally waiver between the west and northwest through early Tuesday before shifting more firmly offshore. We are seeing a flareup of lake effect showers and a few storms during the pre-dawn hours this Sunday morning as an initial vort max and surface trough axis works across the region. There will likely be a lull for several hours later this morning into this afternoon, before another impressive vort max and surface trough cross the lake the first half of tonight. This is expected to bring another, likely more widespread, flareup of lake effect showers and thunderstorms. Lake effect activity is possible as far west as the Islands and Sandusky through early tonight. Thereafter, activity will continue mainly from near the Cleveland metro points east-northeast (and will be most organized across Northwest PA) Monday into early Tuesday, though will likely shut-off farther west of Cleveland as high pressure gradually builds from the west-southwest. Lake effect is not expected to be as intense/organized (and will have decreasing thunder potential) starting late tonight, and may completely stop at times. However, coverage/intensity may briefly increase Monday morning, Monday evening, and perhaps early Tuesday as additional spokes of mid-level energy and surface troughs rotate around the backside of our departing closed low. After this morning's flareup, the main concern for organized activity that could produce locally heavy rain downwind of Lake Erie in short order is the first half of tonight. Rain amounts will need to be monitored for localized flooding potential if any more stationary bands of lake effect play out, especially over areas that saw heavy rain on Saturday. Lower overall confidence in impactful flooding and a likely limited potential areal scope of any flooding that occurs precludes a Flood Watch at this time. Some storms coming off the lake may produce small hail through early tonight, with the potential for gusty winds with any storms coming off the lake this evening as well. QPF amounts from the eastern Cleveland suburbs and across the core "snowbelt" of far Northeast OH and Northwest PA generally range from 0.50-2.00", which is manageable on its own, though given the very convective nature amounts will vary more than shown in the forecast and can locally end up in the 2-4" range. That would be where an isolated flooding concern can develop. Across the rest of the area a good scattered of showers is likely late this afternoon and evening as the vort max and surface trough work through. Otherwise, a drying trend is favored into the first half of the week as high pressure builds. Highs will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s today and Monday, coolest across Northeast OH and Northwest PA (the hills of PA may be stuck in the low-mid 60s most of Monday), with overnight lows largely in the 50s the next few nights. A few outlying areas may get into the 40s Monday night where skies clear. A gradual warming trend begins on Tuesday. KEY MESSAGE 2.. The next upper trough digs into the Great Lakes Wednesday and Thursday, with weak low pressure tracking well to our north and pulling a cold front through the local area likely on Thursday. This does not look like a very dynamic system, but will bring the next potential for scattered showers and storms. The greatest potential for rain appears to be late Wednesday night into Thursday. Given weaker dynamics and amounts of instability and moisture that appear modest, the risk for severe weather and/or heavy rain with this system is currently minimal. && .AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/... Low-end VFR (3.5kft cigs) conditions across the TAF sites this afternoon with pockets of non- VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms later this evening and overnight, mainly east of I-71. Starting to see some developing isolated to scattered showers across the area this afternoon, though thunder remains at a minimum so far. The highest confidence for more widespread showers and thunderstorms is later this evening, mainly at CLE/YNG/ERI. Brief elevated wind gusts up to 40 knots are possible at ERI with this activity. Winds remain elevated out of the west to northwest this afternoon, 10 to 15 knots with periodic gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Some isolated higher gusts up to 30 knots cannot be ruled out through the rest of this afternoon. Winds will diminish to less than 10 knots overnight, increasing again out of the west Monday afternoon, 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots possible. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in lake effect rain and/or low ceilings across the snowbelt late Monday into Tuesday. Non-VFR may return in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday. && .MARINE... Rough marine conditions are expected on Lake Erie today through Monday with gusty northwest winds and higher waves as well as the risk for rip currents along the beaches/lakeshore. West to Northwest winds will be between 15 and 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots today through Monday afternoon. Waves will increase 3 to 8 feet today through Monday. Waterspouts will be very possible on Lake Erie today through Monday as well. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazard Statements for rip currents have been issued through Monday afternoon and evening. High pressure will slowly build in Monday night into Tuesday with conditions on Lake Erie improving. By Tuesday, winds will be westerly to southwesterly 5 to 15 knots and waves decreasing to 1 to 2 feet. The southerly winds will linger into Wednesday 5 to 12 knots and waves of 1 to 2 feet as well. The next weather system to possibly impact marine weather will be a cold front moving through the Great Lakes region by Thursday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday afternoon for OHZ009- 010. Beach Hazards Statement through Mondayevening for OHZ011-012- 089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LEZ144-145. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for LEZ146>149. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sullivan AVIATION...Kahn MARINE...77  810 FXUS61 KPHI 231737 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 137 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Aviation section for the 06Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A drier airmass spreads into the region this afternoon. 2. Fair weather is expected to return later Sunday and should persist into the middle of the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A drier airmass spreads into the region this afternoon. In the wake of a cold front that is passing offshore this afternoon, a drier airmass continues to spread into the region with surface dewpoints dropping from the upper 60s to around 70 to the low 60. Can't fully rule out a spot shower or two with broad upper level troughing overhead, particularly across northern NJ and the Poconos, but it will remain largely dry for the rest of the afternoon as high pressure builds in from the west. KEY MESSAGE 2...Fair weather is expected to return later Sunday and should persist into the middle of the upcoming week. More zonal flow with some subtle ridging moves in for the first half of the week. At the surface, high pressure will mainly be in control, resulting in dry and tranquil weather through Wednesday. Temperatures should be seasonable through this stretch. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of today...VFR. W to NW 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. High confidence. Tonight...VFR. LGT/VRB winds. High confidence. Outlook... Monday through Thursday...VFR expected most of the time. && .MARINE... Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions will remain across the waters today and tonight. Seas on the ocean will mostly be 2 to 3 ft range thru the period. Winds today will start out from the southeast at 10 to 15 kt, then will turn southwest after sunrise. Winds turn west 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon, then will be west to northwest around 10 kt tonight. Showers with a few thunderstorms this morning, then improving conditions later today. Outlook... Monday through Wednesday...No marine headlines expected. Fair weather expected. Rip Currents... Today...East to southeast 10 to 15 mph winds this morning, turn to the southwest after sunrise, then west with gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Breaking waves will be 1 to 2 feet with light southerly swells with a 6 to 8 second period. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches. On Monday, southwest winds will average 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon with breaking waves of 1 to 2 feet. There will be light southerly swells with a period of 6 to 8 seconds. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MPS/OHara/Staarmann AVIATION...MJL/MPS/OHara/Staarmann MARINE...MPS/OHara/Staarmann  043 FXUS62 KMLB 231743 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 143 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Scattered showers and storms are forecast across east central Florida today, highest near and north of the I-4 corridor. Storm hazards include frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 55 mph, and quick rainfall accumulations of 1-3". - Below normal rain and storm chances start off the work week as high pressure lifts northward towards the Florida peninsula, with a return of near normal rain and storm chances from Wednesday onward as moisture increases. - Near normal temperatures will persist through this week, but humidity will still produce peak heat indices of 100F and greater. Adequate hydration and breaks in the shade or A/C will be important for those spending extended periods of time outdoors! && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Today-Tonight...A deep mid-level trough is forecast to remain situated across the eastern US, with a shortwave rounding the trough and moving across the Florida peninsula today. At the surface, east central Florida remains sandwiched between the Atlantic ridge axis to the south and a quasi-stationary boundary draped across the southeastern US to the north. A plume of moisture will work across central Florida today, with the shortwave aloft assisting with shower and storm development along with the typical diurnal pattern. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will start late this morning near and north of the I-4 corridor, with coverage expanding southward through the afternoon hours. Activity will then shift eastward towards the coast, where additional interactions with the east coast sea breeze may support further development of activity. The highest rain and storm chances (50-60%) are focused near and north of the I-4 corridor where moisture is anticipated to be greatest today. While some hi- res guidance continues to favor this evolution of activity, it is important to note that drier air aloft could act as a limiting factor for shower and storm development. Decided to lean slightly more towards an active pattern given the mid-level support and plume of moisture present, hence the slight discrepancy in the forecast when compared to the NBM. The environment continues to look favorable for storm development, with diurnal heating increasing instability, dry air aloft supporting downbursts, and the plume of moisture supporting heavy rainfall. Hazards today will include frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts of 45-55 mph, and quick rainfall accumulations of 1-3". Westerly steering flow will keep activity moving offshore, with a gradual decline in coverage into the evening and overnight hours. Activity may even diminish slightly quicker than forecast given the earlier potential start time, and adjustments to the forecast will be made as needed depending on how things evolve today. Additional shower and storm development across the local Atlantic waters cannot be ruled out overnight, especially across the Gulf Stream waters. Outside of showers and storms, anticipate higher cloud coverage which will help keep temperatures closer to normal values today. Highs reach the low 90s, combining with humidity to produce peak heat indices of 102F to 107F. The greatest peak heat indices are anticipated across the Treasure Coast, where cloud coverage may not be quite as high. Residents and visitors are strongly encouraged to practice heat safety to avoid developing heat illness. Overnight, temperatures fall into the mid 70s. Monday-Tuesday...The deep troughing across the eastern US begins to lift northeastward and weaken, resulting in the weakening of the surface boundary draped across the southeast US. The surface Atlantic high is forecast to lift northward in response, with the ridge axis draping across the Florida peninsula. Locally, this will result in light southerly flow both Monday and Tuesday, allowing for both easier development and intrusion inland of the east coast sea breeze. Drier air is forecast to filter across the area on Monday, with the southerly flow slowly advecting moisture back towards east central Florida into Tuesday. This drier air will result in below- normal rain chances, ranging between 20-30% on Monday and 20-40% on Tuesday. Any activity that does manage to develop will be favored in the afternoon hours, driven primarily by the sea breezes and any subsequent interactions. Storm hazards will include frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts 45-55 mph, and heavy downpours. Lighter steering flow aloft both Monday and Tuesday may lead to slow and erratic storm motions, which will also increase the potential for minor, localized flooding in some spots if showers and storms do manage to develop. Overall, weak southwesterly flow aloft will support movement towards the east coast, with activity pushing offshore through the late evening and overnight hours. Continued development across the local Atlantic waters will be possible each night, with mostly dry conditions across the peninsula. Temperatures are forecast to remain near to slightly above normal each afternoon, with highs near and north of the I-4 corridor reaching the mid 90s, with highs in the low 90s elsewhere. At this time, peak heat indices are forecast to range between 102F to 107F, remaining just below Heat Advisory criteria. Those spending extended periods of time outdoors will need to remain adequately hydrated and take breaks in the shade or A/C to prevent the development of heat-related illness. Overnight, temperatures are anticipated to remain near normal in the mid 70s. Wednesday-Saturday...Broad mid-level ridging across the Atlantic will extend towards the Florida peninsula from the middle of this week into the weekend, with the Atlantic high at the surface generally remaining in place. The surface ridge axis is forecast to stay draped across the Florida peninsula, with light southerly winds prevailing through Friday, becoming more southeasterly next weekend as the ridge axis lifts slightly northward. Daily development of the east coast sea breeze is anticipated, and when combined with the moist air mass in place, will support a diurnal pattern of shower and storm development each day. Rain and storm chances remain near normal values (40-70%), with lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours possible. General model trends favor activity diminishing into the late evening and overnight hours across the peninsula each day. Temperatures will remain near normal in the low 90s during the afternoon hours, falling into the mid 70s during the overnight hours. Peak heat indices are anticipated to remain below advisory criteria but will still exceed 100F, so heat safety will continue to be important through the remainder of the week. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast to persist across the local waters through this week. The Atlantic high lifts northward towards the waters starting Monday, causing the southwesterly winds today to become more southerly Monday onward. Light wind speeds of 5 to 10 knots during the overnight and morning hours increase to 10 to 15 knots and shift to out of the southeast during the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops each day. Seas remain generally between 1 to 3 feet, with the highest seas focused across the offshore waters. Isolated to scattered shower and storm development will be possible, with activity generally moving offshore from the peninsula each afternoon into the evening hours. Continued development overnight across the Gulf Stream waters will be possible. Storm hazards will include frequent cloud-to-water lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 30 knots, heavy downpours, and locally higher seas. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 134 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ISO-SCT TS have developed INVOF the northern ECFL terminals, and SCT-NUM TS in WCFL are working eastward on the Gulf breeze. The ECSB remain pinned off the coast by offshore (WSW-SW) flow 5-10 kts, and is forecast to make only a brief inland push from KMLB- KSUA (if at all) before outflow and the WCSB overruns the coast after around 20Z. Additional TS are expected on the collision before moving offshore, though some TS may become slow/erratic/ stationary and produce longer periods of impacts. Adjusted TS and TEMPO timing earlier in AMDs and the 18Z package across the board at northern terminals. +TSRA capable of locally high gusts +35 kts again possible. Most TS/SH forecast to dissipate or move offshore after 23Z, but some activity may linger as late as 04Z. Quiet VFR overnight once convection clears. Winds become light southerly/VRB overnight and forecast to continue Monday, allowing the ECSB to develop and move inland at a more typical rate, shifting winds SSE-SE around 10 kts. Lower coverage of afternoon TS/SH forecast Monday, but another early start remains possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 93 75 92 / 10 20 10 50 MCO 76 95 76 95 / 10 30 10 40 MLB 76 93 77 93 / 20 20 10 40 VRB 75 93 75 92 / 20 20 10 30 LEE 75 93 76 92 / 0 20 10 40 SFB 75 94 75 93 / 10 30 10 40 ORL 76 94 77 94 / 10 30 10 40 FPR 75 93 75 92 / 20 20 10 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tollefsen AVIATION...Haley  010 FXUS63 KIND 231742 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 142 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers cannot be ruled out across northeastern counties late this afternoon into the evening - Cooler and less humid weather expected through Tuesday - Scattered showers and storms possible Wednesday evening into Thursday && .DISCUSSION (This Evening through Sunday)... Issued at 142 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A progressively drier trend than the last couple weeks continues through much of the upcoming week as high pressure resides over the Ohio Valley for much of the forecast period. Deep upper level ridging will remain tethered for the next several days over the Intermountain West with a largely dry northwest flow over the region. The passage of a cold front late Wednesday into Thursday will present the primary convective risk until the latter part of next weekend. Rest of This Afternoon through Tuesday Night Diurnal cu development has increased with heating as temperatures warm through the 70s. Satellite shows more enhanced cu over the Great Lakes extending south into northern Indiana with a few showers near KFWA in response to the double barreled upper low pinwheeling over Ontario. A piece of energy dropping south on the back side of upper low will pivot across lower Michigan and Lake Erie later this afternoon into the evening and may provide just enough lift in tandem with the steep lapse rates and weakly unstable airmass present to generate stray showers over northeast counties into the early evening. This would be similar to what took place Saturday evening but with lower instability levels limiting the coverage and intensity of any showers. Most will remain dry but any location that gets under a small shower may see a very quick downpour. High pressure will fully settle over the Ohio Valley tonight through much of the first half of the week with quiet weather and abundant sunshine anticipated. Low level thermals support cooler than normal temperatures through Tuesday with highs generally ranging from the mid 70s northeast to the lower 80s in the lower Wabash Valley. Lows will be very comfortable in the 50s the next two nights before return flow Tuesday night nudges lows back up into the low to mid 60s for most of the forecast area. Really cannot ask for a better next 60 hours or so for the region...much deserved after the very active and wet last few weeks. Wednesday through Sunday A weakening upper level low riding overtop of the western ridge will drop into the upper Midwest early Wednesday before becoming absorbed by a broader long wave trough that will amplify across the eastern half of the country for late week. Low pressure and an associated cold front running in tandem with the upper wave will track across the Ohio Valley Wednesday night and early Thursday in a progressively weakened condition as stronger forcing aloft is lost. There will be enough moisture and instability along and immediately ahead of the frontal boundary for scattered convection with the front clearing the forecast area during the day Thursday. High pressure will reestablish in the wake of the frontal passage drifting slowly east through the Great Lakes into Saturday. This bring another multi day stretch of dry weather with seasonable temperatures as highs will focus largely in the low to mid 80s. The ridge will flatten to the west over the weekend opening the possibility for convection to impact the region by late weekend into early next week as multiple waves ride along in the predominantly zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will also rise back into the mid and upper 80s by the end of the forecast period with an uptick in humidity levels. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 142 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Impacts: - Patchy fog possible at the outlying terminals after 08Z tonight Discussion: Mainly VFR conditions to continue across central Indiana through the period as surface high pressure remains in control. Expect northwest flow through through the evening. Winds become light and variable tonight before picking up again tomorrow afternoon. Fog/BR is possible at the outlying sites again after 08Z tonight. Scattered diurnal cu is will continue to this evening. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ AVIATION...KF DISCUSSION...Ryan  999 FXUS63 KLOT 231741 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1241 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous swimming conditions at unprotected beaches in Cook County and northwest Indiana today. - Next chance for showers and thunderstorms towards midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 219 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The broad upper troughing over the Great Lakes continues to shift east into the northeast CONUS this morning which is allowing a surface high to build into the region from the Upper Midwest. This surface high is expected to remain over the area through Tuesday which will result in rain-free conditions and comfortable humidity. However, the persistent north-northwest winds will keep temperatures on the seasonably cool side today and Monday with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s to locally near 60. Winds are forecast to become more southerly on Tuesday which should allow temperatures to rebound back into the 80s. Speaking of winds, north-northwesterly gusts around 20 mph are expected this afternoon with locally higher gusts possible over the open waters of Lake Michigan. Despite ongoing breezy winds (10-15 kt) over the lake, waves have been rather slow to respond with current buoy observations showing 2.0-2.5 ft waves offshore of Cook County and 3.0-3.5 ft waves offshore of northwest IN. That said, as the north-northwest winds prevail it still looks as if wave heights should continue to increase through this afternoon resulting in an increasing risk for rip currents and dangerous swimming conditions, especially at northwest IN beaches. Therefore, the current plan is to maintain the ongoing Beach Hazard Statements for Porter, Lake (IN), and Cook Counties through this evening for this threat. So if you are planning to head to the beach today be sure to check the latest surf forecast beforehand and remember to stay dry where the waves are high! Our next chance for rain is not expected until the middle of the week when the shortwave trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to pivot through the Great Lakes. Associated with the shortwave is also expected to be a cold front which will be the main driver of the anticipated shower and thunderstorm activity. The latest trend in the 00z guidance suite is for the front to begin to move into northern IL late Tuesday night with a decaying area of showers and thunderstorms along it. Given the late night arrival and the lingering mid- level dry air forecast to be overhead locally, it seems that the best coverage of any showers/storms Tuesday night will be near the IL-WI line. The front is then forecast to drift across northern IL and northwest IN on Wednesday which should allow for the redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening as diurnal destabilization occurs. While forecast soundings do show some decent MLCAPE values (around 1000-2000 J/kg) and steep mid-level lapse rates, the convergence along the frontal boundary looks to be rather meager which may limit the coverage of showers and storms on Wednesday. That said, forecast soundings also show around 25-35 kts of deep layer shear Wednesday afternoon which may allow a few storms to become strong to possibly severe. At this time our area is not outlooked for severe weather likely due to uncertainty in storm coverage and timing, but this will be a period to monitor as we get closer. The cold front is forecast to exit the area late Wednesday night into Thursday morning which looks to allow another surface high to build into the area. Though, with some uncertainty as to how fast the front will exit this could change in subsequent forecasts. Regardless, another period of dry weather shoulddevelop to close out the work week, but there is a signal for more active weather to return towards the end of the weekend into the early part of the following week. On the bright side, temperatures do look to stay seasonable through the week with daily highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s. Yack && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Key messages for the 18Z TAF period: * A lake breeze will bring light and variable winds to MDW and GYY this evening and overnight * Another lake breeze will turn NW winds to E in Chicago Monday afternoon NE winds around 10 to 12 kt will remain through the afternoon with occasional gusts as high as 20 kt. Winds will go light for this evening. A lake breeze is expected to pass through MDW and GYY this evening. While magnitude will be light, direction will vary through the night and into early Monday. Elsewhere, NW is favored tonight. Expect NW Monday morning going ENE at Chicago sites in the mid-late afternoon with the passage of another lake breeze. Expect VFR throughout the period. Doom && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for INZ002. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  065 FXUS61 KBOX 231744 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 144 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms around today, especially towards the CT River Valley where an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm or two is possible. - Drier and warmer next week before rain chances make a return sometime Thursday/Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and storms around today, especially towards the CT River Valley where an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm or two is possible. Weak low pressure just off to our northeast continues to aid in continued NE low level flow this morning, keeping overcast skies over southern New England. Chances for spotty showers continue primarily towards Nantucket and the outer Cape where showers are just offshore and continuing to move off to the northeast. Aside from these, misty and foggier conditions continue this morning across the region. The main thing to keep an eye out for today will be the chances for some showers and storms towards the afternoon. Showers tracking across New York associated with the approaching cold front will approach western MA and CT towards the late morning/early afternoon hours. The low pressure to our northeast loosens its grip over southern New England as more southerly winds take hold in the late morning/early afternoon hours, advecting in dewpoints in the 70s. Increased humidity along with diurnal instability may enhance the risk for storms in the interior turning strong to severe. Even with cloudier skies inhibiting instability a bit, model soundings and CAM guidance have MUCAPE values around 1500-1800 J/kg over the CT Valley in the afternoon, and MLCAPE values to around 1200-1300 J/kg with limited capping in the soundings. Effective bulk shear values around 40 kt will also aid in development of an isolated stronger to severe storm or two, with the main risk of these storms being damaging winds. PWAT values still around 1.25-1.5" in the afternoon ahead of the front will also keep the risk for some torrential downpours in play. The interior remains in a Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather today considering this environment. Outside of this risk of showers and storms, the rest of the region can expect to remain mostly dry, albeit dreary. Humid conditions prevail with highs in the upper 70s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier and warmer next week before rain chances make a return sometime Thursday/Friday. The cold front to our west passes through the region heading into Monday, clearing skies quickly in its wake. Drier post-frontal air flows into the region, noted by dew points falling into the 50s and low 60s and PWATs to an inch and lower. Temperatures return to more seasonable levels in the 70s and 80s, though it should feel more comfortable than today given the reduced humidity. High pressure steadily builds in through Tuesday into Wednesday as ridging takes place of the troughing from Quebec that will continue to shift off to the east. Clear skies and dry weather prevail through this period. Greater uncertainty reenters the forecast towards Thursday and Friday with the approach and development of another shortwave over the Great Lakes. Ensemble and deterministic guidance does hint at the return of elevated moisture towards this time period, along with rain showers. Latest ensemble guidance has PWAT values returning to around 1.5" Thursday afternoon into Friday, along with more southerly flow towards the surface. Inconsistencies remain among the ensembles, though, regarding the track of the low associated with the shortwave. This also leads to discrepancies regarding the timing of any showers. && .AVIATION/18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update... This afternoon through tonight...Moderate confidence in trends but lower confidence in specific timing. The main cluster of showers and an occasional rumble of thunder or two will be exiting eastern MA by mid afternoon. Otherwise...a few additional showers and perhaps an isolated t-storm will be possible into mid evening with the focus across interior southern New England and particularly areas near and west of the CT River Valley. IFR/LIFR conditions will be improving to mainly MVFR-VFR by early-mid evening in most locations although the process will be slowest across the Cape/Islands. However...a wet ground, light winds and dewpoints still in the 60s will likely result in areas of fog developing in the typically prone locations. Some of that fog may become locally dense overnight...while areas like KBOS end up going VFR. So a wide variety of conditions possible toward daybreak. Winds become calm/light SW tonight. Monday and Monday night...High confidence. Any leftover ground fog quickly burns off after sunrise Mon. Otherwise...VFR with SW winds of 7-13 knots. Mainly VFR conditions continue Mon night outside of any localized patches of ground fog that develop in those typically prone locations. Winds become calm/light SW Mon night. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in trends but lower confidence in specific timing. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in trends but lower confidence in specific timing. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Tuesday Night: VFR. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Monday...High confidence. Winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through tonight. However, gusts could get close to this criteria during the day Monday following the cold front passing through tonight. Patchy fog over the waters tonight will clear following the front as well. Seas remain between 2-4 ft with 5 ft seas possible tonight in the far ocean waters. Winds shift more S to SW today, continuing through Monday. Outlook /Monday Night through Friday/... Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Wednesday through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...High Risk for Rip Currents from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for MAZ024. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hrencecin AVIATION...Frank MARINE...Hrencecin  120 FXUS66 KOTX 231745 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1045 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lingering thunderstorms over Northeast WA and North ID through Sunday morning. - Breezy winds across the Basin on Sunday. && .SYNOPSIS... A weather system continues to impact the region through Sunday morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms producing gusty outflow winds, along with breezy winds and low relative humidity expected. Sunday will remain breezy and dry, but cooler. Temperatures will warm again at the start of next week with breezy conditions returning by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today: The Low will be passing through the North Idaho into Alberta. There is still enough instability to generate showers and occasional isolated thunderstorm over Northeast WA and North Idaho through the morning. These areas have a round 10-30% probability of thunderstorms. The thunderstorm threat will diminish through the afternoon as the system continues eastward. The system will bring gusty winds across the Basin with gusts in the 20-30 mph range. Winds will be breezy through the day before declining by the evening. Highs will be cooler with a range of upper 70s to 80s expected. Monday through Saturday: A ridge will build into the region along the Continental Divide while a trough digs in off the coast. A similar pattern will be setting up from this past weekend. The ridge will be in place for a couple of days leading to dry, warm pattern. Highs will climb back into the 90s. Moderate HeatRisk will return for most lowland locations on Tuesday. The trough begin to push into the region on Wednesday and slowly track East through the end of the week. Ensembles have weak instability over the Cascades, northern mountains, and the Idaho Panhandle. Precipitable water amounts are 0.5-0.75 of an inch. These areas will likely have isolated showers with an occasional lightning strike. NBM has around a 10% probability of lightning. Winds will increase through the Okanogan Valley and Waterville Plateau with gusts in the 20-30 mph range. While it does not bring in a meaningful amount of rain, the trough will drop highs back into the 80s through the end of the week. /JDC && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs: There is a 40% chance for showers and thunderstorms across northeastern WA and North Idaho 18-01z. Activity will mainly be along and north of Hwy 20 impacting Republic, Colville, and Bonners Ferry. Otherwise, dry westerly flow will promote VFR conditions for all TAF sites along with breezy west to southwest winds. These winds will quickly decrease between 1z-4z this evening. Winds will slowly shift toward the north and northeast for KMWH, KGEG, KCOE, KPUW overnight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Main uncertainty and potential for forecast updates will be smoke into KEAT driving down visibility below 6SM. This comes with lower confidence today given the elevated winds in place. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 58 80 53 86 55 93 / 30 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 58 79 52 86 55 93 / 50 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 50 76 45 86 49 93 / 30 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 61 85 56 92 61 98 / 30 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 51 78 43 86 46 93 / 20 30 10 0 0 0 Sandpoint 55 76 46 82 50 90 / 50 10 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 54 76 51 84 54 91 / 50 100 0 0 0 Moses Lake 55 84 52 89 57 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 63 82 61 87 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 55 83 53 88 57 93 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning until 11 AM PDT Sunday for Selkirk Mountains of Northeast Washington (Zone 700). Air Quality Alert until further notice for Central Chelan County-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin- Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County. ID...Red Flag Warning until 11 AM PDT Sunday for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101). && $$  308 FXUS61 KBUF 231747 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 147 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Fine-tuned lake effect band placement for tonight as well as Monday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Showers and thunderstorms today, with a few potentially strong to severe. 2.) Cool, upper level low to bring lake effect rain this afternoon through Tuesday night. Cool tonight through Monday night. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Showers and thunderstorms today, with a few potentially strong to severe. This early morning a surface low is near eastern Georgian Bay, with a cold front draped across WNY. A southerly flow ahead of the cold front will become more southwesterly behind the frontal passage for today. Aloft a closed and negatively tilted mid and upper level low is centered over the Central Great Lakes, with water vapor imagery displaying a shortwave trough diving towards Lake Superior. For today overall severe threat is marginal, with SPC outlining our entire region with a marginal risk. MUCAPE values range 500 to 1000 J/KG ahead of the cold front, with DCAPE values peaking around 1200 J/KG this early afternoon east of Lake Ontario. This front is expected to clear our eastern zones by mid afternoon. Flow through the lower levels is moderate with 0-6 km effect bulk shear values reaching 45 knots...which suggests any stronger storms building within a layer with increasing low level lapse rates of 6.5 to 7.0 C/Km could bring a few strong to damaging wind gusts...for which a marginal risk for severe storms is in effect, especially for our eastern zones. The increasing lapse rates with the approach of the cool upper level low could also yield large hail with any taller storms. Key Message 2...Cool, upper level low to bring lake effect rain this afternoon through Tuesday night. Cool tonight through Monday night. Behind the cold front, an early taste of fall tonight through Monday night as a cool upper level low rotates across our region. Temperatures at 850 hPa will plummet towards +7 to +8C across the warm eastern Great Lakes. This will generate a lake effect rain response with the cool air flowing over the very warm lakes. Initial moist cyclonic flow, combined with the approach of a shortwave trough from the Upper Great Lakes will bring both lake enhanced as well as upslope rain showers east of both eastern Great lakes. A southwest flow tonight will lift any organizing lake effect rain bands towards Buffalo and Watertown. Ahead of the closed low, a more southerly flow should push the band of rain off Lake Ontario up towards the Saint Lawrence Valley. Broken bands of lake effect rain will become disorganized through the day Monday with daytime heating and the passage of a trough. This trough could also spark a few thunderstorms through the day. Behind the trough a freshening westerly flow will bring organizing lake effect rain bands southward to areas south of Buffalo and towards the central Tug Hill Plateau. This rain will diminish Monday night off Lake Erie, and Tuesday and Tuesday night off Lake Ontario. In addition to the rain, there will be the potential for waterspouts along lake convergent boundaries with tall EL heights combined with the cool air associated with the upper level low over the warm lakes. Overnight lows will be some 5 to 8 degrees below normal tonight and Monday night, while high temperatures Monday will be some 10 to 15 degrees below late August normals. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface low pressure centered over the southern portions of the Ontario province, will continue to advect cool moist air across the region through the 18Z TAF period. As such wrap around, lake enhanced showers are currently scatteredacross WNY as of 1730Z, supporting VFR to MVFR ceilings. Meanwhile, the occluded front associated with the low is in progress of passing east across far eastern New York, supporting a line of showers and embedded thunder. Wrap around showers and thunderstorms will persist throughout this afternoon. Then with the loss of daytime instability, thunder will end shortly after sunset with just lake enhanced showers remaining east of both lakes. Given the cooler temperatures aloft, lake enhanced showers will continue through Monday. As such, a mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings will persist across both WNY and the eastern Lake Ontario region. Outlook... Monday night through Tuesday night...Lake effect rain, mainly east and southeast of the Lakes with associated restrictions diminishing off Lake Erie Monday night into Tuesday and off Lake Ontario Tuesday/Tuesday night. Otherwise mainly VFR. Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR, except MVFR/IFR conditions possible from scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. && .MARINE... Behind a cold front passage today, an upper level low will bring an early taste of autumn with a brisk west wind developing within a decently strong pressure gradient and moderate instability over the Lakes. While initial southerly flow Sunday should bring Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions to the lakes Sunday, the southwest flow under the upper level low Sunday night through Monday night, and then westerly flow Tuesday, will likely continue the choppy waters on the Lakes with SCA likely. In addition to the brisk winds, there will be the potential for waterspouts with the development of sizable lake-induced instability as cool air associated with cyclonic flow around the upper-level low crosses the warm lakes. The waterspout threat should continue through Tuesday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for NYZ001>007. Beach Hazards Statement through late Monday night for NYZ010- 019-085. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LOZ042>045. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jaszka AVIATION...EAL MARINE...Jaszka/Thomas  259 FXUS63 KILX 231745 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1245 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonal and mostly dry weather is expected through at least Tuesday evening over central and southeast IL. - The next chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening. Some of these storms could be strong to marginally severe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Upper air analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure anchored over the southwest US with troughing over the eastern US. Northwest flow between these two features will keep seasonal and mostly dry weather in place through the start of the new week. By midweek, a compact upper shortwave will track through the northern Great Lakes Region, sending a cold front through a good portion of the Midwest states. This will bring our next chance for showers and storms. Out ahead of the front, temperatures will climb well into the 80s with steady moisture return sending dewpoints into the upper 60s to low 70s. Forecast guidance is showing moderately strong instability developing by Wednesday afternoon with seasonally strong shear. Forecast soundings depict inverted-V T/Td profiles with a large area of CAPE atop of that. A capping inversion will be in place most of the day, but will erode from west to east by late afternoon/early evening as the front approaches. Although the better upper forcing will be displaced to our north, a few strong to marginally severe storms could develop Wednesday afternoon and evening, posing a threat for damaging wind gusts. Later this week, northwest flow aloft will become more zonal by the weekend. A few weak shortwaves traversing through the upper flow may spark occasional spotty showers, though most will stay dry. Longer range guidance shows a more defined wave/front moving through sometime later Saturday or Sunday, which would bring another chance for precipitation. Temperatures will remain seasonable through the end of the month with highs in the low to middle 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail next 24 hours through 18Z/1 pm Monday across the central IL airports. The only exception would be if any patchy shallow ground fog develops late tonight/early Mon morning. HREF has only a 15-30% chance of visibilities getting to 5 miles or less from 09Z-14Z over central IL airports. Best chances of fog will be near the river valleys and low lying rural areas. Diurnally driven few to scattered cumulus clouds with bases of 4-6k ft this afternoon to dissipate at sunset and could reappear after 16Z Mon. Weak 1020 mb high pressure over central/northern MO and ridging into central Iowa and upper MS river valley, to drift over the central OH river valley Monday morning while ridging back into northeast IL. NW winds 5-10 kts this afternoon (isolated gusts to 15 kts early like at DEC) to diminishing light and variable to calm tonight after sunset. Winds remain light Monday morning and could be variable direction yet with weak high pressure ridge nearby. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...NMA DISCUSSION...NMA AVIATION...07  296 FXUS64 KBMX 231747 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1247 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1242 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026 - Heat: Minor to moderate heat risk will continue through the upcoming week. Heat indices are forecast to remain below 105 degrees. - Storms: There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe storms across southern portions of Alabama both today and Monday. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1242 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Water vapor imagery this morning reveals an upper level trough lifting across the northeast as an upper level ridge expands out to our west. At the surface, a cold front can be analyzed draped across the southern half of the state. This boundary is likely to linger close to the northern Gulf coast for the next couple of days. Meanwhile, a few impulses will rotate through the northwest flow aloft, helping to trigger a few bouts of convection, generally during the afternoon and evening hours. Greatest chances for convection through mid week will be to the south of the boundary as a moisture convergence axis becomes established. Drier air filtering in across our northern areas will help keep rain chances at bay. To the south of the front, ample instability, high DCAPE and mid-level dry air will continue to promote a risk for damaging wind gusts with any storm. Therefore, SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe storms across the southern half of the state through Tuesday. By mid week, another upper trough deepens across the Great Lakes region while sending a cold front into Central Alabama sometime Thursday into Friday. As a result, we will see low to moderate (30-60%) chances for showers and storms at times through the work week. High temperatures this weekend will settle into the low to mid 90s for most. Drier air will help keep heat indices in check, generally 95-102 degrees. Increasing rain chances and cloud cover next week will help trim off a few degrees with highs in the upper 80s at times. Continued humid conditions will warrant a moderate heat risk for most through the next week. 95/Castillo && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026 There is high confidence in VFR conditions for most of this TAF period. However, showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage across our southern areas during the late afternoon hours. As a result, continued with the PROB30 mention at AUO/MGM through 03Z Monday. North-northwest winds today from 5-10 knots will become light and variable overnight. Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage, and AMD LTD TO CLD AND WIND for EET due to a visibility sensor outage. 95/Castillo && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air filtering into the area will result in a decrease in relative humidity (35 to 45%) for most locations today and Monday. However, wind speeds are expected to remain light, which should negate any significant fire weather concerns. Moisture gradually begins to return through the work week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 66 91 66 92 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 66 90 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 70 92 70 92 / 0 10 20 10 Tuscaloosa 72 95 72 94 / 10 10 30 30 Calera 70 93 70 92 / 0 10 20 10 Auburn 72 91 71 90 / 0 10 10 0 Montgomery 73 95 72 95 / 10 20 40 20 Troy 72 95 70 93 / 10 30 40 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...95/Castillo AVIATION...95/Castillo  301 FXUS64 KJAN 231747 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1247 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous heat stress is expected across portions of the forecast area over the next several days. - Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible across mainly southern portions of the area today through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 This afternoon through tonight: Hot/humid conditions will be ongoing through the afternoon. Dangerous heat conditions is expected with greatest heat stress over western/southern areas where heat indices reach 110 degrees are expected. Heat Advisory will remain in effect through 8pm. A weak, frontal boundary will provide the next storm chances along the HWY 84 corridor through the evening hours. A "Marginal" (1/5) risk for severe weather with damaging winds as the primary hazard. Monday through Saturday: As the boundary progress southward, a round of elevated convection will bring Monday pre-dawn rain chances to the Delta and central MS. Afternoon temps will briefly "cool" temps to the low/mid 90s with heat indices near 105. "Although temps will be in the low/mid 90s, a "Limited" (1/4) risk for heat stress is expected. An additional "Slight" (2/5) risk for severe weather is expected for Monday and "Marginal" (1/5) risk Tuesday afternoon/evening thanks to incoming weak disturbances. The risk area will gradually move northward towards the 1-20 corridor by Tuesday. High pressure will retrograde towards the Southwest CONUS with a trough axis setting up across the Southern CONUS. As a result, northwest flow across the area will allow the disturbances to increase afternoon rain chances through the end of the week. Although rain chances will be present, heat will still be a concern through the week. Heat and humidity will be on the rebound as heat indices begin to increase to 110 degrees west of I-55. Heat headlines and advisories will likely be needed as the week progress. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period, however brief restrictions to visibility could occur with any showers or storms near KGLH, KGWO after 12Z Monday. Confidence in thunder impacts was greatest to mention at those sites. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 73 92 73 95 / 0 30 30 30 Meridian 73 92 72 94 / 10 40 20 40 Vicksburg 74 92 73 95 / 0 30 20 20 Hattiesburg 74 95 73 95 / 10 60 20 40 Natchez 75 96 75 97 / 10 20 10 10 Greenville 73 91 72 97 / 10 30 40 20 Greenwood 72 89 71 94 / 10 30 40 40 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025- 034>036-040>043-047>049-053>066-072>074. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016- 023>026. AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. && $$ SW/NF  270 FXUS64 KLIX 231746 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1246 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Dangerous heat continues with afternoon heat indices in the 105-113 well into the new week. Warm overnight temperatures will offer limited relief. Those with outdoor plans should take precautions to avoid heat-related illness. Stay hydrated, wear light-weight and loose fitting clothes, and take breaks in the shade or air conditioning. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast during the mid to late afternoon hours today and Monday. A few storms could become strong to severe, producing gusty winds, frequent lightning and brief periods of heavy rain. When thunder roars, go indoors. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Tonight through Wednesday, upper level ridging will remain in place over the area to the west, and we will enter the "ring of fire" pattern. Southerly surface winds will continue to help advect warm air and moisture into the area, increasing the humidity across the region. Daily isolated to scattered showers and storms will be expected for the next few days, but especially tomorrow as a lingering weakness influences the area. These storms where they occur will have the potential for frequent lightning and gusty subsevere winds (40- 50mph). These storms are not expected to be severe, based on recent model trends. The heat continues as ridging builds back over the area. Highs in the upper 90s to low 100s combined with heat index values in the 105-112 degrees range will be quite warm and uncomfortable. Given the uncertainties with cloud cover for Monday, we held off on issuing a heat advisory for now. It will be looked at again on the next forecast cycle. Tuesday and Wednesday will be hot and advisories may be needed. Be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if you will be spending time outdoors. MSW && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Saturday night) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 High pressure begins to break down over the area for the rest of the workweek into next weekend. Southerly surface winds will continue to advect warm and moist air into the region, increasing humidities for the area. Daily scattered showers or storms will be possible during peak heating hours as we return to a more normal summertime pattern. The main risk with these storms where they occur would be frequent lightning and gusty winds (30-50mph). The heat will linger with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values in the 105-110 degree range, it will be quite uncomfortable outside. So, be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if spending time outdoors. MSW && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist through the forecast period. TEMPO groups are in the forecast for this afternoon and early evening at most area airports for scattered storms that will lower ceilings and visibilities temporarily to MVFR conditions. MSW && .MARINE... Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Surface high pressure centered over the central Gulf will maintain a generally weak pressure gradient through much of the period. Weak and variable winds around 5 to 10 knots will become W then SW to start the week. A predominantly light southerly flow will set up by mid week and remain through the end of the week. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible with winds and waves higher in and near this activity. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MSW LONG TERM....MSW AVIATION...MSW MARINE...MSW  406 FXUS61 KRLX 231749 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 149 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 18Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update. Little to no modifications were necessary to the forecast this afternoon. General thunder risk across the northern CWA has since been erased from the Day 1 outlook, yielding a clean eight day thunderstorm outlook risk for the Central Appalachians. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A stretch of dry weather settles into the region alongside a brief cool down in temperatures. 2) Weather pattern shifts back into an unsettled state for the second half of the week amid passing disturbances. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Chamber of Commerce weather rounds out the weekend under the guise of building high pressure. Some afternoon cumulus fields have sprouted overhead today, but is not expected to form into showers or storms within our forecast area. A similar forecast sets up for the next several days while the surface high remains nestled over the region, allowing for a welcome reprieve from the unsettled weather pattern we found ourselves in so far this month. Cool temperatures and low humidity yields daytime highs spanning the 60s to low 80s, elevation dependent, and overnight lows tumbling down into the 40s and 50s. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will then become nudged offshore after midweek as upper level troughing swings into the Ohio Valley. Embedded shortwaves will promote periods of showers and storms for Thursday onward. We could also see influence from a disturbance churning off the eastern seaboard later on in the week. Whether an uptick in the risk for severe weather returning to the area with these waves remains uncertain this far out in the forecast. Soil recovery that is anticipated to take place during the first half of the week should aid in limiting any initial flooding concerns. Heavy downpours and training storms will be closely monitored, however, for localized issues heading into next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Blossoming cumulus fields this afternoon will take on a much different appearance than previous days as further development into showers and storms is not expected in our airspace. High pressure settling into the Ohio Valley will yield a stretch of much quieter flight conditions today and into the start of the new week. Afternoon clouds, coupled with mountain breezes, will fade this evening. Some river valley fog and low stratus may develop late tonight into Monday morning for our sheltered terminals, followed by another day of prevailing VFR conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR conditions are not expected through midweek. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None.KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...05  378 FXUS63 KGRR 231749 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 149 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Afternoon Showers Today - Dry Monday/Tuesday, Showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 149 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Afternoon Showers Today Moisture from Lake Michigan, steep low level laps rates providing around 200 J/kg of CAPE, along with mid level support from the upper level low are sparking off isolated to scattered showers. These will be largely north of a Ludington to Jackson line before the inversion builds in this evening and we lose our surface based instability. Thunderstorms are not expected. - Dry Monday/Tuesday, Showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday Pressure heights increase Monday into Tuesday as the upper level low over the eastern Great Lakes shifts east. Northwest winds will continue for Monday with gusts to 20 mph. Tuesday winds will be lighter and more variable. High temperatures will be in the 70s Monday and warm to around 80 for Tuesday. Low temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s. Southerly winds build in ahead of our next shortwave trough that is expected to slowly move through Wednesday. Warm air advection and the low level jet will feed into the area with instability around 1000 J/kg. Shear values only look to be around 25 knots, therefore confidence in storms becoming severe is low. Long range ensemble clusters are in good agreement that most of the rain ends by Thursday morning, although we could see another round of diurnal showers similar to today Thursday afternoon. The probability of a half inch of rain in 24 hours during this time is less than 20 percent. Friday ensembles are in good agreement to expect dry conditions but confidence decreases over the weekend as we remain in transitional flow where a few weak shortwaves could bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 149 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at all West Michigan TAF sites through the 24 hour TAF period. Daytime warming coupled with cooler air aloft will continue to support SCT-BKN CU this afternoon /4-5 kft/ particularly east of a GRR to BTL line. Isolated brief showers will also be possible (20-30%) in vicinity of LAN. CU will diminish this evening, with a few CU returning again by late Monday morning, though coverage should be less than today. Winds will remain NW throughout TAF period. Gusts of 20-25 kt are likely this afternoon. Winds will subside to around 5 kt this evening, then increase again to 10-15 kt by late Monday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 149 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Wave heights around 4 feet have been observed this afternoon with northwest winds gusting around 20 knots. Expect Small Craft Advisory and High Swim risk conditions to continue into this evening before winds and waves subside tonight. Wave heights could remain around 4 feet north of Big Sable after midnight. Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots Monday will keep wave heights around 2 to 3 feet. Moderate Swim Risk conditions are expected through Monday afternoon before wave heights fall below 2 feet Monday night into Tuesday. The next chance for Small Craft Advisory and High Swim Risk conditions will be Wednesday which matches up with our next chance for showers and thunderstorms. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ037- 043-050-056-064-071. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...Smith MARINE...RAH  393 FXUS64 KHGX 231749 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1249 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory remains in effect. - Cannot rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm at times into midweek, but chances will be quite low for most of the area. - Temperatures slightly ease late in the week along with the potential for some rain chances returning to the forecast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Temperatures are currently running 2-5 degrees lower than yesterday at this time thanks to the debris cloudiness passing overhead. Satellite pix show the sun re-emerging so we still have plenty of time to get some of those readings back close to 100F. Like previous days, cannot rule out an isolated storm or two late in the day/evening. Consider yourself lucky if one passes overhead as most of us will remain dry. If you've enjoyed the wx for the past several days, you're in for a treat because more of the same is anticipated thru at least midweek. Will maintain the ongoing Heat Advisories in place. Later in the week (Thursday and beyond), the western mid-upper ridge moves a bit further to the west which will allow for falling heights locally and a gradual easing of the 100F+ temps. It appears that llvl ridging in the Gulf will also lose some of its grip. A more prevalent SSE flow emerges (versus the current SW) and opens up a better trajectory for some higher PW Gulf air to flow inland. Combination of this, less potent subsidence aloft, and some west-to-east mid level impulses should allow for the mention of some POPs to return to the fcst. Suspect we'll see rain chances trend higher than we currently have in our fcst assuming the wetter 12z deterministic model suites show some consistency as time marches on. 47 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions prevail alongside southwesterly winds around 5-10 kt. Winds will transition to southeasterly later this afternoon. High- resolution model guidance depicts isolated convection developing around 21Z in portions of the Piney Woods and drifting southwestward. As of right now, a PROB30 has been included only at UTS, but CXO may also need SH/TS mentions should a similar setup to Saturday afternoon unfold. Confidence remains rather low on any convective development, but if anything manages to develop then UTS/CXO would be the most likely to see convective impacts. Winds transition back to light and southwesterly overnight. As seen over the past few mornings, a brief period of isolated low ceilings will be possible around and shortly after sunrise. Areawide VFR conditions will return by 15Z/Monday. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Southwest to west winds late at night and in the mornings will become south 10 to 15 knots during the day as the seabreeze kicks in. Seas will be 1 to 3 feet. A more prevailing southeast to southeast flow should set back up late in the week and weekend along with the return of some isolated to scattered rain chances. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 78 103 77 102 / 20 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 80 101 79 101 / 20 10 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 83 93 84 92 / 10 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...47 AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...47  366 FXUS64 KSHV 231748 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1248 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 123 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Oppressive heat will continue today through much of the coming work week, although afternoon temperatures may trend slightly cooler (near or below 100 degrees) by late week. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible today generally south of I-20, before a cluster of storms slide southeast and possibly affect portions of Southern Arkansas and Eastern Louisiana Monday morning. - Considerable cloud cover from these storms Monday should yield slightly cooler conditions over much of Southern Arkansas and Northcentral/Northeast Louisiana. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 123 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The convective cluster that affected much of NCntrl and Ern AR Saturday afternoon/evening continues to weaken as it pushes through SE AR/NCntrl MS attm, although the latest sfc obs and mosaic radar imagery indicate an extensive outflow bndry extending from Wrn Bowie/Cass and Ern Marion Counties in NE TX to near the I-20 corridor of N LA, with accompanying weak forcing aloft associated with the shortwave impulse sinking S into the Lower MS Valley and the Gulf Coast states providing enough large scale forcing within a still moderately unstable and moist air mass characteristic of MLCapes of 1500-2000 J/kg and PW's of 1.8-1.9 inches to produce isolated convection near and just S of this bndry. This should persist through the overnight hours and may linger into the morning after daybreak, with the short term progs suggesting that this bndry becoming stationary later this morning somewhere over E TX/N LA, and could serve as a focus for additional isolated convection this afternoon mainly S of I-20 across E TX/N LA, especially as another weak mid level shortwave impulse sliding SE around the Ern periphery of the NM/W TX upper ridge potentially enhances convection development once heating is maximized. One fly in the ointment though is the potential for elevated cigs that the progs want to hang on to across much of the region through at least the afternoon near and ahead of this mid level impulse, which may tend to result in slightly cooler temps than what was observed Saturday. However, also considering the possibility for localized compressional warming near and just S of the aforementioned sfc bndry, which would be enhanced especially should breaks in the cigs occur and if they diminish entirely. Given the higher sun angle and trends in recent days, have played the pessimist and bumped up max temps 1-2 degrees this afternoon, but should see enough mixing given the very dry/parched grounds such that heat indices should again range from 105-110 degrees areawide once again. A few locales may exceed the 110 degree heat index threshold for an Extreme Heat Warning should temps get hotter than forecast or mixing is not as pronounced, but the extent of elevated cigs today provides enough confidence to refrain from upgrading the Heat Advisory to a Warning through early this evening. While locally gusty winds will be possible this afternoon and evening from the isolated convection, mostly quiet conditions are expected for much of tonight, although our focus will turn upstream over Nrn AR later tonight as a weak shortwave trough will traverse SE through the Ozarks into the Mid-South region, which should focus more organized clusters of convection over this area as they slide SE into Ern AR/Nrn and Wrn MS. Storm organization should increase late with the development of a 30-40kt SWrly LLJ, with the potential for at least a portion of this convection possibly affecting areas of Srn AR/NCntrl and NE LA by/after daybreak through early to mid-afternoon. Did expand slight chance/chance pops farther W into Srn AR/N LA from the previous forecast/NBM, with the thickening convective debris likely also influencing the max temp forecast for these areas as well, resulting in cooler (sub 100 degree) temps especially E of the I-49 corridor, thus ending their string of consecutive 100 degree days. While the existing Heat Advisory will need to be extended into Monday, have punted this decision to the day shift as a portions of the Ern zones should be able to be omitted from the Advisory given the cooler temps/thickening cigs. Unfortunately, this should be short-lived as the cigs thin during the evening/overnight hours, and upper ridging begins to expand back E into the region. With the oppressive heat returning areawide Tuesday, it's likely that a Heat Advisory will again be needed areawide, although the influence of the ridging will begin to weaken by mid and late week as the ridge center begins to retrograde back W into the Desert SW. Thus, max temps should gradually retreat a bit away from the century mark except possibly over E TX, with a more unsettled NWrly flow yielding the potential for isolated to scattered convection by late week for at least the Ern half/two-thirds of the area. Depending on the strength of the perturbations in the NW flow, convection development may expand farther W as the ridge weakens, which may result in cooler temps here as well as the potential for much needed rainfall. However, this NW flow regime will also yield the potential for isolated strong/severe convection during the afternoon/evening given the persistent extreme heat and instability present. 15 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are expected to continue through much of the period with light cloud cover and southerly winds. There may be some convection development this afternoon, especially around KLFK and KTYR but confidence was too low to include in this package. Winds should be light and variable overnight until becoming southwesterly by midday, occasionally gusting up near 15 kts around western sites. Shower development looks more likely beginning around 24/12z from the northeast. This will mainly bring VCTS to KELD, KMLU, and possibly KTXK. The main hazards of any showers that develop will likely be visibility reductions and gusty winds. /57/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 123 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening for isolated strong storms that may produce locally gusty winds across portions of East Texas and North Louisiana south of I-20. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 78 100 79 101 / 0 10 10 0 MLU 75 95 75 99 / 10 40 20 10 DEQ 73 99 72 104 / 10 20 10 0 TXK 76 100 77 102 / 10 20 10 10 ELD 75 96 75 100 / 20 30 10 10 TYR 80 104 79 104 / 0 0 10 0 GGG 78 104 79 104 / 0 10 10 0 LFK 77 102 77 101 / 10 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ050-059-070-071. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ051-060-061-072- 073. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...57  358 FXUS64 KTSA 231748 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1248 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1245 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Temperatures above normal with continued periods of high heat stress will continue through week. The possible exception being around active thunderstorm activity. - Limited risk of severe weather Sunday night into early Monday with damaging wind potential the primary hazard. - Areas of localized fire weather concerns will persist until widespread beneficial rainfall occurs. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Notable mid level wave currently passing western KS will continue southeastward increasing forcing across the local region this evening through tonight. Guidance has remained in good agreement in developing a corridor of showers and storms from NE OK through western AR from late evening through the overnight hours before gradually diminishing through Monday morning. No obvious reason to disagree and the forecast precip chances will align accordingly. Forecast profiles maintain a dry sub cloud layer and strengthening mid level flow through the overnight hours favoring localized wind damage potential. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Sunday) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Extensive cloud cover and ongoing precip will influence temperature trends Monday with a large range in temps likely across the forecast area by afternoon. Heat advisories may be needed for portions of the area as confidence increases in temperature trends. Hot temperatures are more likely across a larger portion of the area on Tuesday ahead of the next weak cold front. Blended guidance favors a minor cool down by Wednesday with very low precip chances across the region. Any cool down will likely be brief with hot temperatures expanding area wide by late week. Overall precip chances remain low beyond Monday and the lack of widespread beneficial rainfall will drive localized fire weather concerns through the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions all sites until after midnight, then any reduced aviation impacts will be dependent on showers and thunderstorms that are expected to develop into ern OK and nwrn AR overnight into Monday morning. Maintained PROB30 groups after 06z nern OK and nwrn AR sites, and continued PROB30 groups nwrn AR sites after 12z, as convection will be slower to clear that area. Extensive mid and high clouds through the period, with generally low level easterly wind. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 77 99 74 99 / 30 20 0 10 FSM 76 99 74 104 / 30 30 0 0 MLC 79 104 77 106 / 10 20 20 0 BVO 69 96 70 97 / 40 20 0 0 FYV 71 92 70 99 / 60 40 10 0 BYV 68 90 69 95 / 70 70 10 0 MKO 75 99 73 101 / 30 20 0 0 MIO 69 93 71 96 / 70 30 10 0 F10 76 102 74 102 / 20 20 0 10 HHW 77 103 76 104 / 0 20 20 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-060-061- 064>067-070-071-073>075-176-272. AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...69  452 FXUS62 KFFC 231751 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 151 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New 18Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry for North Georgia and low chances for thunderstorms (15-20%) across parts of Central Georgia through Tuesday. - Daily rain chances will be on the upswing by mid to late week as a frontal boundary approaches. - Seasonal temperatures are largely expected through the week ahead. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 350 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Currently: Another quiet night/early morning across North and Central Georgia. Temperatures are still warm thanks to high cirrus and midlevel clouds sweeping across the state. Latest readings are in the low 70s. Some low clouds and patchy fog are likely again later this morning but not expecting this to be quite as extensive as yesterday. Precipitation Trends: A secondary surface front will push through the forecast area today as upper troughing digs eastward towards the Atlantic Coast. Isolated thunderstorms will remain a possibility late this afternoon into early evening across parts of Central Georgia. Any stronger storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts due to lingering moisture and adequate instability south of the front. The front should push further into FL and along the GA/SC coastline thus limiting any precipitation coverage/chances even further for Monday. Drier conditions are expected for most to kick off the work week. Heat Trends: Drier air and lower dewpoints will continue to filter in behind the secondary front and will lend to less oppressive heat for most places today and Monday. Daytime temperatures will still largely remain in the 90s but dewpoints in the 60s will make being outside a little less miserable. Overnight temperatures are forecast to fall into the 60s to low 70s (upper 50s at the higher elevations) each night/early morning. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 350 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The forecast area will remain in a northwest flow regime aloft through the bulk of the long term forecast period. Initially, a more comfortable airmass characterized by 60s dewpoints will remain entrenched on Tuesday as a front remains stalled to the south across south Georgia/northern Florida. Moisture will gradually increase through midweek, and disturbances within the northwest flow will provide some opportunity for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. By Thursday into Friday, an additional cold front looks to push southeastward into the forecast area as a trough swings through the Great Lakes. This frontal boundary and increasing moisture will provide an impetus for PoPs to increase more markedly by Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will remain largely close to normal with highs ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s and fairly pleasant morning lows in the 60s for much of north Georgia to lower 70s farther south. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 150 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 CU field expected this afternoon but conditions will remain VFR. Winds will be NW at 5 to 10kts potentially gusting to 15kts. Skies should clear overnight and winds will become light and variable. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High on all elements. Vaughn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 93 65 91 65 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 92 70 90 69 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 84 59 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 91 64 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 95 72 93 71 / 20 0 10 10 Gainesville 90 65 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 95 70 93 69 / 10 10 10 10 Rome 91 64 89 63 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 92 67 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 96 72 95 72 / 10 10 10 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...Vaughn  523 FXUS63 KICT 231753 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1253 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Non-severe showers/thunderstorms possible today across portions of central and eastern Kansas. - Strong to severe thunderstorms possible tonight through early Monday, along with locally heavy rain. - Periodic chances for off-and-on thunderstorms through at least next weekend, especially during the evening-nighttime- morning hours. - Near to above average temperatures the next several days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 206 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 THUNDERSTORM CHANCES: TODAY...A weak thunderstorm complex is expected to progress east- southeast into central Kansas toward sunrise, ahead of an MCV approaching from the west. These showers/storms will be outrunning the better instability further west, so we're not expecting severe weather. This activity could reach as far east-southeast as roughly the KS Turnpike by late morning, with festering widely scattered showers/thunderstorms possible through the rest of the day over portions of central and eastern KS within a zone of 800-600mb warm advection. In all instances, severe weather or widespread heavy rainfall appears unlikely. TONIGHT--EARLY MONDAY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop toward midnight tonight and persist into early Monday, mainly along/south of Highway 56 and along/east of Highway 14, within a zone of strengthening 850-700mb warm/moist advection. Adequate elevated instability amidst decent directional effective shear may support a handful of severe thunderstorms capable of quarter to half-dollar size hail. Additionally, stout downdraft CAPE may also support some severe wind gusts. Additionally, the potential for numerous/training storms may support locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding concerns. By sunrise Monday, much of this activity should have progressed to mainly along/east of the Flint Hills, with all activity likely exiting the region by late morning. LATE TUESDAY--NEXT WEEKEND...These periodic thunderstorm chances look to persist off-and-on through at least next weekend, mainly during the evening-nighttime-morning hours, as periodic shortwaves progress east-southeast over Mid-America north of a stout upper ridge anchored over the southern to southwest CONUS. Seasonable instability combined with decent directional shear should yield a continued strong to severe thunderstorm threat, with wind/hail being the primary threats, along with locally heavy rain. TEMPERATURES: With the stout upper ridge remaining anchored within fairly close proximity to the Kansas region, near to above average temperatures are expected through at least the next 7-10 days. Periodic triple digit heat indices are likely, mainly over south-central and southeast Kansas during the afternoon through early evening hours. The "coolest" day looks to be today, with increased clouds and scattered precipitation keeping daytime highs in the 80s and 90s, coolest over portions of central, east-central, and southeast KS. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 An area of showers continues to slowly move to the east- southeast across central Kansas early this afternoon impacting SLN, RSL, and GBD. These rain showers will slowly dissipate through the afternoon with dry conditions expected this evening along with light easterly winds. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late tonight into Monday morning mainly along and east of a line from ICT to SLN. These storms will be capable of hail, gusty and erratic winds, lightning, as well as heavy rainfall which will reduce visibility. These storms will shift east of the area by late morning with areturn of VFR conditions for the remainder of the forecast period. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...WI  504 FXUS64 KLUB 231752 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1252 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1251 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Record breaking high temperatures possible Monday. - Stronger breezes and low RH values will bring elevated fire danger Monday afternoon. - Storm chances return each day next week beginning Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The heat continues today and Monday as an upper high remains positioned over the FA. Temperatures are already in the mid/upper 90s across the FA and should continue increasing through the afternoon. Unlike Saturday evening, there will likely be no evening convection to help give a reprieve from the hot afternoon. The center of the upper high will be more directly overhead on Monday and will allow highs to be a degree or two warmer than those expected today. An Extreme Heat Warning is once again in effect for the Rolling Plains Monday while the Heat Advisory will be expanded to cover more areas on the Caprock. An embedded upper low over southern Canada is progged to push a cold front southward across the Plains late Monday afternoon and could reach our northern zones by late evening. While this would bring some potential for storm development, the front's arrival would be well after sunset and would have little to no upper level support for lift. The forecast will continue to remain dry for the time being. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 While hot temperatures are still expected through the next week, some slight relief does look to be on the horizon. The upper high will begin to slowly drift westward by mid week. This will allow thicknesses to decrease gradually through the week, with afternoon highs dropping to the mid to upper 90s by Thursday. Another positive effect will be the potential for increased rain chances. The upper low over Hudson Bay will continue to push weak cold front southward across the Great Plains. Though weak, north to northwest upper flow will help the cold fronts push further south into the FA and may provide needed lift for convection. This would help to further cool temps pas what the NBM has forecast. Storm chances will continue to increase into next weekend as the upper high moves further west and will give diurnal convection across the mountains of New Mexico a fighting chance to move into the FA. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR will prevail across the region over the next 24 hours. Some low-end southwesterly LLWS may develop late tonight, but this potential is too marginal to mention in the TAF at this time. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-030>032- 035>038-041>044. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026- 031-032. Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ024>026- 031-032-037-038-042>044. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ029-030- 034>036-040-041. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....51 AVIATION...30  526 FXUS65 KGJT 231753 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1153 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Monsoonal moisture in place will keep scattered shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast today. - Heavier rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding over burn scars and susceptible terrain. - Temperatures near to around 5 degrees above normal are expected through early next week, followed by a gradual warmup to close to 10 degrees above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1031 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 As the Pacific Northwest trough tracks into Canada, the high centered over the Southern Plains starts to drift back toward the west. As a result, flow aloft shifts from southwesterly to more zonal Sunday, shifting the moisture plume north and east of the region. The best moisture will remain pooled along the Divide, and lingering across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado. Instability will be plentiful, provided morning cloud cover clears early enough. The one thing that will be lacking is upper level support, as the shortwave from today will be well to the east. Instead, orographic forcing will be the primary trigger for afternoon convection, with showers and storms firing off the terrain in the early afternoon. This activity will move off the terrain and over adjacent valleys through the afternoon and evening, but will likely not be as long- lasting as convection this afternoon. Heavy rain remains a concern, as surface levels remain well saturated and mixing ratios of 5-7 g/kg remain. This will keep flash flood and debris flow concerns for sensitive areas, including recent burn scars. Above normal moisture sticks around through the coming week, as the high gradually shifts back into the Desert Southwest. Forcing will be somewhat lacking, with only the occasional shortwave rotating around the periphery of the high. This means that most afternoons will see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms develop over the higher terrain, with occasional periods of more focus convection coinciding with a passing wave. So long as surface levels remain saturated, heavy rain and flash flooding will remain concerns, particularly for sensitive areas. Additionally, gusty outflow winds and lightning will be daily threats. Temperatures will start around 5 degrees above normal, but will gradually warm through the week under the influence of the high. By the end of the coming workweek, look for highs to be 5-10 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1145 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Shower and thunderstorm activity is ongoing, primarily over the high terrain south of I-70. Coverage of convection will increase during the afternoon and persist through the evening. Primary concerns with this activity is lightning, strong outflow winds, and periods of heavy rainfall resulting in drops to MVFR conditions. A few sites may experience gusts up to about 20 kts outside of shower and storm activity. Winds will become light and variable overnight. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BGB/TGJT AVIATION...TGJT  480 FXUS65 KSLC 231751 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1151 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe thunderstorms is outlooked this afternoon and evening across much of northern Utah. There is a 10% chance of wind gusts in excess of 70 mph with these thunderstorms. - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall across most of the region through early next week. - Thunderstorms will continue to impact the higher terrain and adjacent valleys through Wednesday. Another round of more widespread thunderstorms is increasing in likelihood for Friday into early next weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Strong to severe convection will develop this afternoon and evening, with the highest probability of significant impacts (10% chance of wind gusts in excess of 70 mph) across northern Utah. A Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe thunderstorms has been issued for this area by the Storm Prediction Center. Looking at the set-up, this morning's 12Z sounding at KSLC already showed almost 1000 J/kg MUCAPE but with a fairly stout amount of convective inhibition. Latest guidance suggests this effective cap will erode by 20-21Z, allowing for robust convective development across northern Utah. Mean HREF SBCAPE indicates a broad area of values near to above around 1000-1500 J/kg across northern Utah coincident with deep layer shear around 25-30 kts. Weak surface convergence associated with a shortwave trough passing to the north may help to organize convection into a quasi-linear feature, though per typical in terrain, this is difficult to discern in model fields. The latest few HRRR runs do show a signature of an organized line of very strong outflow shifting across the west desert and into the Wasatch Front between 21Z and 01Z and then continuing to be quite strong into the Uinta County, WY area by 02-03Z. Peak wind gusts in these runs have increased to 55kts, but given the very steep lapse rates, relatively high instability for the Great Basin, modest deep layer shear and low LCLs, expect storms to be able to attain cold pool/shear balance. Saturday's convective outflow peak was 80 mph near Grassey on I-80...cant rule out a repeat somewhere along this area of outflow winds this afternoon and evening. For areas south of I-70, the heavy rain threat continues. While HREF peak 1 hour rates have decreased over Saturday's values, net available moisture has only decreased subtly. Expect any stronger thunderstorms, especially those tied to terrain features and/or training, to be capable of rainfall rates in excess of 0.50 inches per hour. Will need to monitor for flash flood threat across much of this area...especially for slot canyons, normally dry washes and recent burn scars. With the previously mentioned upper level trough passing to the east Monday, the best chance for strong outflow winds will shift to mainly the Utah/Idaho border region. Convection will become increasingly tied to the higher terrain and adjacent valleys through Wednesday...with only isolated convection expected Thursday as high pressure brings a drying trend to most locations. However...with the tropical eastern Pacific remaining quite active, at least a portion of ensemble members indicate the next trough approaching the Pacific Northwest will assist in shifting remnant tropical moisture into the Great Basin by Friday. This is something to watch moving forward. && .AVIATION...KSLC...A few thunderstorms will begin to develop over the Salt Lake Valley after 20z or so, resulting in low confidence in wind direction with any outflow winds. After 00z, a more organized cluster of thunderstorms is looking more likely to impact the terminal, bringing a chance for lightning, MVFR VIS due to moderate- heavy rain, and gusty outflow winds. Winds could even exceed 50kts out of the west (or become variable) as this line moves through. There is still some uncertainty with the timing of this cluster. Weaker showers will linger in the area until 07z or so, with breezy easterly winds slowly becoming lighter out of the southeast. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon across UT and southwest WY, with lower chances at KCDC and KSGU. Any showers will be capable of producing strong and erratic outflow winds, with the strongest winds across northern UT/southwest WY. Here, winds are more likely to briefly exceed 50kts or even 65kts near the strongest storms. A more organized cluster of thunderstorms will sweep through KTVY-KSLC-KOGD-KEVW between roughly 00-05z, which may produce very strong winds, MVFR VIS due to moderate- heavy rain, and lightning. There is still uncertainty with exact timing of this cluster. && .FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will remain across the Four-Corners region through the next week. As an upper level low crosses southern Canada into the northern Intermountain Region through Monday, sufficient forcing for thunderstorms will continue. As a result, strong to severe thunderstorms will impact much of northern Utah this afternoon and evening. The most significant threat will be strong outflow winds in excess of 60 mph, mainly north of I-70. For locations south of I-70, strong outflow winds up to 50 mph and very heavy rain will be the primary impacts from thunderstorms. Additional strong thunderstorms will develop Monday afternoon and evening, but the threat of outflows in excess of 50 mph will remain closer to the Utah/Idaho border. As high pressure builds north and east in the wake of the upper level low Tuesday, thunderstorms will become more confined to the higher terrain and adjacent valleys through Thursday. A net drying trend will continue, with most valleys see humidities fall to critical levels by midweek. Another round of thunderstorms may impact more of the state as early as Friday as another low pressure area impacts the Pacific Northwest and pulls moisture from the tropical Pacific northeastward into the Great Basin. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ Kruse/Cunningham For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  582 FXUS62 KKEY 231755 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 155 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Conditions remain somewhat favorable for an island cloud line and associated waterspouts through this evening. - Rain and thunder chances will gradually return to near normal by the early to middle part of the week. - Highs near 90 and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s suggest afternoon heat indices will peak at 105 to 108 degrees. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 150 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through 18z Monday. Surface winds will remain mostly southeast to south, though there is the potential for a period of light and variable winds this afternoon continuing into the early evening hours. In addition, an island cloud line may continue to wax and wane through this evening, supporting the risk for vicinity showers and thunderstorms. Mention of VCSH is not explicitly in the TAF for now, with low confidence in cloud line proximity to the terminals, although this will be monitored over the next several hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 436 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Mostly dry air will continue to be the main story for the next couple of days across the Keys. However, just enough moisture is available to support slight chances of showers and thunderstorms through at least Monday night. Weak ridging will also continue to dominate with mainly southeast breezes occasionally becoming variable this afternoon and early evening. The ridge over the Atlantic builds a little further westward tonight into Monday leading to an increasing influence across the area resulting in freshening east to southeast breezes. Since the flow is expected to mainly be light today, there is the potential for a weak cloud line this afternoon. The main inhibiting factor will be the dry air that is in place. Otherwise, the warmer than normal weather will continue be the main story with daytime highs near 90 degrees. Overnight lows won't provide much relief in the lower to mid 80s while dew points remain in the mid to upper 70s. Moisture is expected to increase across the region beginning Tuesday with this continuing throughout the week. A more typical pattern for this time of the year is expected to ensue with more frequent and widespread showers and thunderstorms. The ridge across the North Atlantic will keep its western periphery across the Keys leading to moisture undulations as well as peaking and lulling east to southeast breezes. Breezes will peak overnight into the morning before lulling during the afternoons. Daytime highs near 90 degrees continue through the week, though, overnight lows will dip some due to the increased rain chances into the lower 80s. TROPICS: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor 3 areas across the Atlantic Ocean with none of these systems currently posing a threat to the Keys. The area across the Eastern Tropical Atlantic has a low or near 0 percent chance of formation over 48 hours with a medium or 50% chance of development over the next 7 days. && .MARINE... Issued at 1016 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Conditions will be somewhat favorable for island cloud line formation, mainly in the vicinity of the Lower and Middle Keys. Any cloud line may produce a few waterspouts. Mariners are reminded that a waterspout would most likely appear beneath a dark, flat bottom of a building cumulus line, just at the hint of rain. From synopsis, a split ridge pattern remains in place across the Florida Keys coastal waters. This will promote generally light to gentle southeast to east breezes through tonight, becoming variable at times during the afternoon hours. While North Atlantic ridging builds westward, east to southeast breezes will become more established from tonight through Thursday, becoming gentle && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 84 91 84 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 91 83 91 82 / 10 10 10 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest  559 FXUS63 KBIS 231754 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1254 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across western and south central North Dakota this afternoon and evening. Potential hazards include hail up to the size of ping pong balls, damaging winds up to 70 mph, and torrential downpours. - Conditional risk for isolated severe thunderstorms in central and eastern North Dakota Monday afternoon and evening. Potential hazards include large hail up to 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds up to 70 mph. - Temperatures generally favored to remain near average through next week. - Near-critical fire weather conditions could develop in parts of western North Dakota on Monday, and the far southwest on Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 For early afternoon update main change was increasing shower/storm chances over the northwest with the ongoing convection continuing to move to the east/northeast, though some weak activity is now developing to the south. Expect non-severe storms through early afternoon, with the severe threat developing later this afternoon. UPDATE Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Scattered convection has developed near the Montana/North Dakota border and continues to lift northeast. Instability is rather weak in this area, so do not believe it poses a severe threat as it continues to work into northwest North Dakota, but have increased precipitation chances to address the showers/storms. UPDATE Issued at 644 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The forecast for today remains on track. Current conditions and trends were blended in for this update. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 422 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 An upper level ridge axis extends from the Texas Panhandle through western North Dakota early this morning, with a shortwave ejecting off the Northern Rockies preceding a deeper closed low over western Washington. The shortwave will be the main focus for showers and thunderstorms developing in western and central North Dakota later this morning through this evening. A handful of models bring some weaker elevated convection into southwest North Dakota by mid morning, but there is better consensus for an increase in both coverage and intensity beginning in northwest North Dakota early this afternoon and spreading south and eastward through the late afternoon and evening hours. Showers and storms will develop over a boundary layer with a southerly, moisture-rich return flow, although there is some question whether an MCS over southwest South Dakota and northern Nebraska early this morning could impede moisture transport to some extent. That uncertainty aside, diurnal heating should contribute to CAPE increasing as high as 2000 J/kg with deep layer shear forecast to increase from 30 kts in the afternoon to 40 kts in the evening. There are some factors that could dampen the intensity of convection, including mid level lapse rates less than 6 C/km and a capping inversion that boundary layer mixing and cooling aloft from height falls may not be able to fully erode. Nevertheless, recent CAMs have certainly honed in on an outcome that includes a few severe thunderstorms over parts of western and central North Dakota from mid afternoon through this evening. A lack of a well-defined surface boundary and a mixture of shear and deep layer wind vector orientation to the dewpoint/CAPE gradient would seemingly point toward a multicell/cluster storm mode, which fits with CAMs' reflectivity simulations. Confidence in sustained supercellular structure is low, so have limited our most likely maximum hail size forecast to ping pong balls for now. If upscale growth can lead to more organized convection, damaging winds up to 70 mph could emerge as the dominant severe hazard, especially in the evening when 0-3 km shear could increase to 35 kts. Despite low LCLs and 0-1 km shear greater than 10 kts, model hodographs do not appear to be supportive of tornadogenesis. While instantaneous rainfall rates could be quite high with these storms, their forward propagation should limit the risk for localized flooding, with urban areas being a possible exception. Back to the west, the deeper closed low is forecast to eject off the Canadian Rockies this evening. Lee cyclogenesis is already underway from Alberta through central Montana, but the lee trough/cold front is not forecast to reach western North Dakota until later tonight. Models have shown mixed signals on whether strong to severe convection associated with the trough in central/eastern Montana this afternoon and evening will survive into western North Dakota later tonight. More recent guidance has trended to a lower probability of convective maintenance, which may be due in part to the increased probabilities of thunderstorms in North Dakota stabilizing the air mass in between the two convective systems. MUCAPE is actually projected to remain as high as 2000 J/kg through the night in western North Dakota, but model soundings reveal the most-unstable layer to be highly-capped. Depending on the timing of decaying convection, there could be some higher wind gusts sneaking across the Montana border around midnight. A conditional threat for severe storms continues in central and eastern North Dakota on Monday, but confidence in convective initiation is quite low. Even though several forcing mechanisms are forecast to be present, including mid level height falls/ DCVA, low level warm air convergence, and surface convergence along the frontal boundary attendant to the Canadian low, there may not be enough of an alignment of these features to ensure deep moist convection initiates, and there are a number of possible scenarios and combinations thereof being displayed by the suite of CAMs. First, there is potential for elevated morning convection moving across northern North Dakota ahead of the surface front in an area where stronger warm air advection on the mesoscale could overlap with stronger height falls as the Canadian upper low spins over southern Saskatchewan. This may or may not play a role in afternoon convection if it occurs. A capping inversion will almost certainly delay surface-based convection until late afternoon and early evening. Then it becomes a question of whether strong enough forcing will come into alignment for sustained deep moist convection. Despite the low probabilities for convective initiation and coverage, the threat ceiling may be higher than today, with CAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg and deep layer shear closer to 40-50 kts. Unlike today, there is a clear favoring of a discrete storm mode with shear and deep layer wind vectors perpendicular to the surface boundary. Model hodographs are long and mostly straight, but with enough curvature to support splitting supercells. The most likely maximum hail size forecast for Monday has therefore been increased to 2 inches in diameter, with the maximum wind gust forecast remaining at 70 mph on account of forecast DCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. Similar to today, the tornado risk on Monday appears to be low on account of modeled hodograph structure, despite low LCLs and modest low level shear. In non-convective forecast news, today will be seasonably warm and humid with highs mostly in the 80s and dewpoints rising into the mid 50s to mid 60s. It will also be a bit breezy with southeast winds around 15-20 mph. Monday is favored to be the warmest day of the upcoming week for most areas, with widespread highs around 85 to 90. The post-frontal air mass in western North Dakota will become very dry and could feature gusty northwest winds Monday afternoon, which may lead to near- critical fire weather conditions. The southern Canadian low, which will become nearly-stacked Monday night, is forecast to dive southeastward into the Red River Valley on Tuesday. This brings slightly cooler daytime temperatures and stronger northwest winds into the forecast as the surface pressure gradient gets squeezed between the low and high pressure building over Alberta and Saskatchewan. RH could be low enough in the far southwest for another afternoon of near-critical fire weather conditions on Tuesday. The NBM has also increased PoPs for diurnally-driven showers in the northwest cyclonic flow regime Tuesday afternoon, just in the Turtle Mountains area for now but could see that expanding with future forecast updates. The downstream low continues a southeastward trajectory toward the Great Lakes on Wednesday as surface ridging slides into the Northern Plains and the upper level ridge begins to reamplify over the Rockies. A deeper trough digging into the Pacific Northwest on Thursday could push the upper ridge back into the Northern Plains by the end of the week, with ensemble spread on the synoptic pattern increasing thereafter. Ensemble clusters now tend to favor more of a quasi-zonal flow pattern heading into next weekend, which is evident in deterministic guidance. But there is still some support for yet another reemergence of the upper level ridge somewhere between the Rockies and Great Plains. The potential quasi-zonal flow is reflected in the NBM returning daily low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances to the forecast from Friday onward. The temperature outlook for mid to late next week remains close to average, with highs mostly in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows mostly in the 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Thunderstorm chances will spread from west to east this afternoon and evening. A few severe storms with large hail or damaging wind gusts will be possible mid-afternoon through early this evening, mainly over southwest and south central North Dakota. Some storms may linger overnight, with a few showers and storms again entering from Montana, pushing east into Monday morning. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...JJS DISCUSSION...Hollan AVIATION...JJS  554 FXUS65 KABQ 231754 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1154 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1139 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Showers and thunderstorms will decrease in coverage today and Monday, then increase in coverage Tuesday through Thursday, with a risk of cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts, and ponding of water on roads. - A risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will develop with storms along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains both Tuesday and Wednesday. - Moderate-to-high heat risk will impact much of central and eastern New Mexico during the first half of the week, then spread to western areas as well during the latter half of the week with near-record high temperatures each day. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 120 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 With a 597 DAM high pressure system over the state, high temperatures will generally continue to trend upward through Monday, when readings will peak around 5-13 degrees above 1991-2020 averages. Record and near record high temperatures are forecast both today and Monday. The NBM, which did a pretty good job on the high temperature forecast for Saturday, predicts a temperature of 105 F for Roswell on Monday, which is the Heat Advisory criteria for the Chavs County plains. Will let the day shift issue the Heat Advisory for Monday if conditions still look supportive of reaching the criteria there. Otherwise, scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast to return to western and northern areas today and Monday. High res models depict spottier cells developing on the eastern plains as far south as Highway 60 late today, and also in the Albuquerque area in the central valley. Northeast and east central areas should see an uptick in storm coverage on Monday, when a somewhat moist backdoor front will enter from the northeast, while disturbances in northwest flow aloft clip the northeast corner of NM. Bulk shear (0-6 KM) around 25-40 KT and CAPE up to 1800 J/KG should enable a few strong to severe storms to develop on the northeast and east central plains Monday afternoon and evening. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 120 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Models generally depict the center of the ~597 DAM high pressure system aloft varying its position around central and southern NM until Wednesday, when it is forecast to shift over the southwest NM/southeast AZ border through at least Saturday. Disturbances in northwest flow aloft will continue to increase storm coverage over central and eastern areas Tuesday, then over western areas as well Wednesday and Thursday, after moist outflow from storms on the eastern plains pushes its way over western parts of the state. Gulf moisture will increase PWATs over eastern areas to around 1.10" on Tuesday, then around 1.35" on Wednesday, enabling storms to produce locally heavy rainfall with a risk of flash flooding. NBM 90th Percentile QPF indicates a few parts of the northeast plains may accumulate nearly 3 inches of rain Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening, with locally over 1 inch along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and on parts of the east central plains. The increased convection on the eastern plains, and the southwestward migration of the high pressure center aloft, will enable high temperatures on the eastern plains to trend downward during the middle of the week; while remaining a few to several degrees above 30-year averages. Meanwhile, record and near-record high temperatures will persist across central and western parts of the state. On Friday and Saturday, a downtick in storm coverage and rainfall intensity is forecast with each day as the amplitude of the high pressure system over the southwest NM border decreases and a ridge axis extends westward over north TX. The storm track will also become less active, enabling drier and more zonal flow over northern NM. This will enable temperatures to trend upward again on the eastern plains starting Thursday, and over western areas as well starting Friday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Showers and thunderstorms will generally be focused over the western and northern high terrain early this afternoon before gradually filling into nearby valleys and lower elevations through the early evening. Storms will be capable of producing small hail, lightning, gusty downburst winds, and brief downpours that will temporarily reduce ceilings and visibility. A storm or two in northeastern New Mexico will have the potential to turn strong to severe with larger hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms will mostly come to an end before midnight with just a few stray showers lingering into the early morning Monday. Storms will tend to be most concentrated over northern New Mexico going into Monday afternoon. Hot temperatures and high density altitude readings will lead to poor aircraft performance for some. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 120 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Critically low minimum humidities will be pretty widespread over east central areas again today. Sub-15 percent humidities will then shift mainly over central and northwest areas on Monday. Increasing Gulf moisture on the eastern plains during the first half of the week should spread into western areas well with thunderstorm outflows moving in that direction each evening Tuesday through mid week; including moderately strong easterly gap winds below canyons opening into the central valley. Until modest Gulf moisture pushes into western areas mid-week, the size of wetting footprints west of the Rio Grande will decrease with each day today through Tuesday. This will result in an increasing threat of new fire starts as spotty showers and storms return mainly to the mountains each afternoon, and temperatures reach record and near-record readings. Otherwise, the main fire weather concern will be gusty and erratic thunderstorm outflow, which will decrease in coverage with each day through Monday, then increase Tuesday through Thursday, before decreasing again end week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 94 64 94 63 / 20 20 5 0 Dulce........................... 89 51 91 51 / 40 20 10 10 Cuba............................ 89 59 90 59 / 20 30 10 20 Gallup.......................... 90 57 90 57 / 40 30 30 20 El Morro........................ 85 56 85 56 / 40 20 30 20 Grants.......................... 89 58 90 59 / 50 30 30 20 Quemado......................... 86 58 87 58 / 40 20 20 20 Magdalena....................... 88 63 89 64 / 20 10 20 10 Datil........................... 85 58 86 59 / 30 20 20 20 Reserve......................... 93 58 93 58 / 20 10 20 10 Glenwood........................ 98 63 98 64 / 10 10 10 5 Chama........................... 82 52 84 52 / 50 20 30 20 Los Alamos...................... 86 63 87 64 / 50 40 30 20 Pecos........................... 89 59 90 59 / 20 20 20 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 83 55 85 56 / 70 40 20 30 Red River....................... 77 45 78 45 / 60 40 30 30 Angel Fire...................... 81 39 82 36 / 30 30 40 40 Taos............................ 87 55 89 56 / 40 30 20 20 Mora............................ 85 55 86 55 / 30 20 40 40 Espanola........................ 93 61 94 59 / 40 40 20 20 Santa Fe........................ 89 62 90 62 / 20 20 20 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 92 61 93 60 / 20 20 10 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 94 68 95 69 / 20 20 10 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 95 69 96 70 / 20 20 5 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 97 63 98 63 / 20 20 5 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 96 68 98 70 / 20 20 5 20 Belen........................... 98 67 98 67 / 20 20 5 10 Bernalillo...................... 96 66 97 67 / 20 20 5 20 Bosque Farms.................... 97 63 98 64 / 20 20 5 10 Corrales........................ 97 67 98 68 / 20 20 5 20 Los Lunas....................... 97 65 98 66 / 20 20 5 10 Placitas........................ 93 66 94 67 / 20 20 10 20 Rio Rancho...................... 95 68 97 69 / 20 20 5 20 Socorro......................... 99 70 99 71 / 10 10 10 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 89 63 90 64 / 20 20 20 20 Tijeras......................... 90 64 91 64 / 20 20 10 20 Edgewood........................ 90 60 91 61 / 20 20 20 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 92 56 93 58 / 20 10 20 20 Clines Corners.................. 89 60 90 61 / 10 20 20 20 Mountainair..................... 91 60 91 61 / 10 10 20 10 Gran Quivira.................... 90 61 91 61 / 0 10 20 10 Carrizozo....................... 94 67 95 68 / 0 0 10 10 Ruidoso......................... 88 53 89 59 / 10 0 20 10 Capulin......................... 87 55 87 55 / 40 30 40 50 Raton........................... 91 55 91 55 / 50 30 50 40 Springer........................ 93 56 93 56 / 40 30 30 30 Las Vegas....................... 90 57 90 57 / 20 20 30 20 Clayton......................... 97 65 96 65 / 40 30 20 60 Roy............................. 93 60 93 61 / 30 20 20 40 Conchas......................... 101 67 101 67 / 10 20 10 30 Santa Rosa...................... 97 66 98 66 / 5 20 5 20 Tucumcari....................... 102 69 101 68 / 10 20 5 30 Clovis.......................... 100 70 100 69 / 0 10 5 20 Portales........................ 101 71 102 70 / 0 5 5 20 Fort Sumner..................... 101 69 101 69 / 0 20 0 20 Roswell......................... 103 71 105 72 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 97 67 99 67 / 5 0 10 10 Elk............................. 93 63 94 64 / 5 0 10 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...52  675 FXUS65 KVEF 231757 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1057 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Above normal temperatures continue through next week. * Isolated storm chances linger into early next week, with best chances in northwestern Arizona and the southern Great Basin. && .DISCUSSION...Through Saturday. With a fairly persistent pattern expected, temperatures remain above normal through the forecast period. Ensemble guidance keeps the 500mb ridge anchored in southern NM and southeastern AZ, leaving us under south-southwest flow aloft. A subtle cooldown is expected Monday-Tuesday as moisture increases in our southeastern areas, but excessive heat quickly returns by mid-week and sticks around. Elevated low temperatures will offer little-to-no overnight relief, especially in the Mojave Desert. Major to extreme heatrisk is forecast to return to these areas during the second half of the week. The aforementioned south-southwest flow is just southerly enough to let moisture linger but southwesterly enough to keep it limited. These conditions should favor isolated afternoon convection, primarily in northwestern AZ and the southern Great Basin where odds are 10-30%. Main concerns with this activity are gusty outflow winds and dry lightning, though brief heavy downpours are possible. An influx of moisture on Monday may result in an uptick in coverage along/southeast of I-15, but models still disagree on the northwestward extent and magnitude of this influx. During the second half of the week, the flow acquires a greater westerly component, allowing moisture and precipitation chances to subside. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds favor a southeasterly direction this morning with sustained speeds of less than 10 knots. A few gusts to around 15 knots cannot be ruled out. In the early afternoon, winds will shift to the southwest with gusts of around 20 knots. Winds will decrease but maintain a southwesterly direction after sunset. Temperatures exceed 100 degrees until 04Z this evening, then increase to above 100 degrees by 18Z tomorrow. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Southerly winds with gusts between 20 and 25 knots develop this afternoon in the Las Vegas Valley, Colorado River Valley, and Owens Valley, weakening after sunset. Gusty westerly winds pick up after sunset at KDAG, lasting into the early morning hours. Thunderstorms will continue to drift through Mohave County this afternoon, and additional storm development cannot be ruled out over high terrain in southern Nevada as well. Gusty outflow winds may cause sudden wind direction changes in the Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River Valley. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Woods AVIATION...Meltzer For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  665 FXUS66 KPQR 231757 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1056 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Updated synopsis, aviation discussion, and marine discussion. .SYNOPSIS... Expect decreasing cloud cover Sunday afternoon with seasonable temperatures. Upper level ridging and low-level offshore flow develops Monday and Tuesday, bringing warmer and sunnier conditions with high temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s across the interior lowlands, warmest on Monday. Wildfire smoke will also begin to increase over the Columbia River Gorge, Upper Hood River Valley, and the greater Portland/Vancouver metro area Monday morning and then linger through Tuesday, however smoke is not expected to be dense for most locations. Onshore flow arrives Wednesday and continues thereafter, which will clear any lingering smoke out of the area and bring relatively cooler temperatures. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday...Upper level troughing continues to move northeast toward southwestern Canada. This is supporting light, scattered showers over southwestern Washington and the coast range early this morning. Radar indicates shallow returns over the area and surface observations report rainfall totals of a few hundredths. Showers are expected to dissipate by late this morning as zonal flow develops in the wake of the upper level trough. Highs will again be around to a few degrees below average in the upper 70s to low 80s for interior lowlands. Winds shift from southerly to northerly as surface high pressure builds into the area. Heading into the work week, ensemble clusters favor ridging over the central CONUS and the PacNW. Warmer temperature are expected to return for Monday and Tuesday. Model spread has decreased for high temperatures between the 10th-90th percentiles now ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s on Monday and mid 80s to low 90s for Tuesday for the interior lowlands. Clusters then favor another trough influencing the region by the middle of the week but exact timing and placement are uncertain but onshore flow and seasonable or below average temperatures would be favored. Currently, the 10th-90th percentiles range from the mid 70s to low 80s. An increasing number of ensemble members indicate that light precipitation is possible during the Thursday-Friday timeframe but nothing significant at this time. -19 && .AVIATION...18Z TAFs...Broken cloud cover continues both inland and at the coast this morning with primary ceilings ranging between 2000-3500 ft and secondary ceilings around 4000-5000 ft. Expect the lower MVFR ceiling deck that is impacting most terminals to scatter out by 19-20Z Sunday, with skies becoming mostly clear by 22-23Z. Widespread VFR conditions will most likely continue thereafter for the remainder of the 18Z TAF period, with one potential exception at the coast. By 11Z Monday, KONP has a 50-60% chance for the return of low stratus. Probabilities for low stratus to return to KAST are lower at around 20%. Inland TAF sites have around a 10-20% chance to see a brief period of low stratus between 12-17Z Monday. Expect breezy northerly winds along the coast between 22Z Sunday and 03Z Monday, gusting upwards of 20 kt at KONP. Winds will be relatively weaker inland, and should become predominately north to northwest Sunday afternoon. Around 18-19Z Monday, easterly winds around 8-11 kt are expected to develop at KTTD and KPDX as offshore winds develop through the Columbia River Gorge. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Expect mainly VFR conditions from 19Z Sunday onward as ceilings begin to lift and cloud cover begins to gradually clear out. Light winds should become northwest around 7-8 kt around approximately 23Z Sunday with an incoming sea breeze. -23 && .MARINE...Northerly winds will gradually increase Sundayafternoon and evening as high pressure strengthens over the northeast Pacific. Gusty winds will develop over the waters, increasing from south to north from Florence to Cape Shoalwater. Wind gusts up to 25 kt are expected to develop during the evening, persisting through Monday afternoon. Small Craft Advisories have been issued starting at 5 PM Sunday for the coastal waters from Florence north to Cape Falcon and starting at 11 PM for the coastal waters north of Cape Falcon to Cape Shoalwater. Gusty winds up to 25 kt are also expected for the Columbia River bar starting at 8 AM Monday. Seas will be choppy during this time at 3-6 feet at 7-9 seconds. -19/23 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM PDT Monday for PZZ251-271. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM PDT Monday for PZZ252-253-272-273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  715 FXUS63 KAPX 231758 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 158 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy, showery, and cool conditions today into Monday...a rumble of thunder not impossible - High swim risks today and possibly into Monday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 337 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: Ridge axis stretching from the SW US bookended by sharp troughs....one over the PacNW, and another stretching from Hudson Bay to a lobe of PV over central Ontario, down through the Great Lakes and down into the Carolinas...with Bermuda high well off the coast. 100kt upper jet snaking through the flow, particularly on either side of the eastern US trough axis. Deep moisture that aided in yesterday's localized 2-4in rainfall now exiting stage right into New England and eastern Canada, along/ahead of an occluded surface low on the north edge of Georgian Bay as of 0z; surface cold front with this drapes to the Southern Plains and back up the lee side of the Rockies, where mid/upper level return flow from the SW US aids in convective activity. PV max over Ontario has some associated weak stability aloft with seasonably cool 850mb temps around 4C beneath it...with strengthening (20-30kt) N/NNW low-level flow poised to advect this air into the Upper Great Lakes; the harbinger of this is a surface cold front draped from the Canadian border toward Whitefish Point and up to James Bay as of 0z. Warm advection already taking shape across the central Canadian Prairies with 1022mb surface high focused over Manitoba/MN. PV max over central Ontario to track SSE across the area today...lending to a strengthening of low pressure near and northeast of Georgian Bay. Thus, expect strong NW/NNW flow over the area today, slowly waning with time into Monday, though we will still remain under cyclonic low-level flow until high pressure finally builds into the Upper Great Lakes by Monday night/Tuesday. Next system, that current PacNW system, will track across southern Canada and lend its warm advective influence to the Upper MS Valley as early as Tuesday...and track into our area going into Wednesday, bringing us the next shot at unsettled weather. Signals point toward troughing attempting to settle into the eastern US again for the latter half of the work week...while troughing over the West Coast tries to squash the western ridge altogether...potentially resulting in zonal flow across the northern CONUS...and perhaps a blocking ridge setting up over northern Canada? FORECAST DETAILS... Winds/beach hazards today/tonight... Strongest portion of the pressure gradient may remain to our north/northeast, which would limit the winds here...but expect sustained winds 10-20mph will remain likely, especially for the EUP and NE Lower, right on into Monday morning, tapering through the day as the low pulls away. Prevailing direction should be NW to NNW through the period, but should fluctuate back and forth in this general portion of the wind rose depending on the passage of perturbations/PV maxima through the day (current timing on the main PV max is for it to drop through late morning into the afternoon). Winds aloft still don't look overly impressive (generally 20-30kts from 925 to 850mb) for much of the day, but may strengthen above 30kts for a period this evening/tonight before diminishing with time Monday. Suspect gusts will largely reflect this idea, and still don't have a lot of confidence in achieving persistent gales...but best shot at this would likely be over Whitefish Bay, northern Lake Huron, and perhaps also near the tip of Grand Traverse Bay where there could be some channeling of winds. Nonetheless...gusty winds today will result in dangerous waves and currents, and high swim risks across most beaches. Showers/storms today into Monday...Potent pv max diving in, combined with some signals for weaker stability aloft, could indicate some potential for more vigorous convection and perhaps small hail along with lightning. With overlake instability as a player, wouldn't be impossible to see convection end up deeper/more vigorous, though inversion heights should be around 700mb/9-10kft, which could put a cap on things...but do wonder if the 18-22C lake surface temps will try to overcome that. With a little better deep layer shear in the region today...suppose there is a non-zero chance everything could come together just perfectly to produce some spicier storms...but not a sure bet by any means. If anything were to get a little spicy, would expect it would be similar to yesterday's scattered pop-up convection with primarily gusty winds as the concern. Some deeper moisture wraps around into the region toward evening from the northeast...likely some kind of wraparound/trowal-ish feature related to the departing surface low. Thus, suspect this would be a wad of somewhat more warm-advective stratiform rain and/or drizzle. Do wonder if this could result in a swath of higher QPF, particularly with signals for pwats to jump back above 1in... but also think the bulk of, if not most of this, will remain offshore...given some question as to how far back to the east the moisture will wrap. (Not to mention subsidence should be increasing with time tonight into Monday.) Guidance soundings also suggest the idea of stratiform rain/drizzle, noting moist but mostly stable thermal profiles, which could also limit QPF. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 154 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Light RA will spread across KCIU, and KAPN this evening along with MVFR CIG development while KPLN, KTVC, and KMBL has cloud cover remaining primarily VFR. NNW winds are expected to remain gusty throughout the entirety of the TAF period, but will likely diminish Monday afternoon. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ016- 018-020-021-024>026-031-098-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for LHZ346. Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Monday for LHZ347-348. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to midnight EDT Monday night for LHZ347-348. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342- 344. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for LMZ345-346. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322. && $$ DISCUSSION...FEF AVIATION...SJC  710 FXUS65 KPSR 231758 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1058 AM MST Sun Aug 23 2026 .UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, some strong to possibly even severe, are expected this evening across south-central Arizona. - Increasingly less favorable conditions for thunderstorms will develop starting Monday with virtually no chances for rain from Tuesday through the rest of the week. - High temperatures will reach or exceed 110 degrees nearly every day this week and will be near daily records, while morning lows remain unusually warm. - Extreme Heat Warnings are in effect through Saturday with daily Major to Extreme HeatRisk. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Today could shape up to be another somewhat busy monsoon day, but unlike last Wednesday moisture and the amount of instability will be more limited. Atmospheric conditions at the moment are not very conducive for convection due to the limited moisture, but the upper levels are somewhat favorable for development. The subtropical high has shifted far enough to the east (eastern New Mexico/western Texas) to decrease the subsidence inversion. An upper level trough has also moved in along the West Coast placing much of our region within or near the more favorable right entrance region of a weak upper jet. So, despite the overall meager moisture currently in place, other atmospheric ingredients are more favorable and better moisture is expected to advect northward today potentially putting southern and central Arizona back in the game for monsoon storms. Given the anticipated scenario for late this afternoon and evening, we are becoming more confident in our chances for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Part of this confidence comes from the 06Z HRRR which shows storms developing north of Phoenix and over Pima County late this afternoon with both clusters sending outflows toward the Phoenix metro. With forecast MUCAPEs near 1000 J/kg and CIN falling to below 100 J/kg late this afternoon, any decent outflow collision seems likely to spark off additional storm development. The 06Z HRRR shows this exact progression with storms developing over or near the Phoenix metro early this evening. Additionally, since moisture will be more limited, DCAPEs will be very high (1700-2000 J/kg) supporting strong to locally severe wind gusts. Forecast PoPs have been raised into a 20-30% range, which better matches the latest high- res guidance. Convective chances for Monday are even more uncertain as guidance generally shows at most a 10% chance despite moisture and instability being better than today. However, subsidence will be much stronger on Monday as the subtropical ridge begins to move westward back into our region. We will have to wait until tonight to have a better idea on the storm potential for Monday, but it does seem to be considerably lower than this afternoon/evening. Temperatures today will again be right near record highs with lower desert readings from 110-115 degrees. The increased boundary layer moisture expected for Monday should hold daytime highs down a bit with NBM forecast highs currently between 106-111 degrees, but heat indices will mostly match what are expected today. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecast attention turns away from monsoon storm potential and back toward the extreme heat conditions starting Tuesday. The subtropical high center will continue to shift westward into our region into the middle part of the week with the center likely settling somewhere over southern Arizona from Wednesday through at least Friday or Saturday. Forecast H5 heights are also shown to reach 594-597dm for the latter half of the week which places it just shy of climatological records for late August. NBM temperature guidance remains quite consistent showing highs rising into a 112-116 degree range for the latter half of this week as conditions dry out. Daily temperature records in Phoenix will continue to be in jeopardy through the entire week, but are likely to fall short in Yuma and El Centro. Once the high center moves overhead by Wednesday, rain chances will essentially go to 5% or less. As of now, conditions for any monsoon storm activity do not look good through next weekend. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1800Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: The potential for multiple outflow boundaries resulting in sudden, gusty wind shifts this evening, as well as SHRA/TSRA developing in the Phoenix Airspace presents the greatest weather issue during this TAF period. Winds will favor E/SE late this morning followed likely by a period of VRB winds before shifting out of a prevailing westerly direction by 20-22Z this afternoon. TS over the northern and eastern AZ high terrain are likely to send a first outflow towards the lower elevations late this afternoon/early this evening, which would cause a sudden wind shift out of a N/NE'rly direction. A cluster of strong storms is then expected to develop over western Pima, southwestern Pinal, and/or southern Maricopa Counties this evening, which would likely send a second, stronger outflow across the terminals from the S/SW. This second outflow may cause temporary surface VIS restrictions due to blowing dust and more prolonged slantwise VIS issues if rain does not follow. Chances for SHRA/TSRA remain around 20-30% across the terminals this evening, and so have included this in PROB30 groups between 04-07Z. The wind forecast is very low confidence this evening into the overnight hours due to the possible influence of multiple outflows, and gusty, erratic winds are expected if SHRA/TSRA develop near the terminals. Cloud bases will remain mostly above 10 kft AGL through the period. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation concerns are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds at KIPL will favor southeasterly directions. TS activity over the Baja spine may send an southwesterly outflow into KIPL by the late afternoon hours, with a less than 20% chance for direct TS impacts. KBLH will swing between south to SW'rly winds, with occasional gusts to around 20 kts. There is also a low chance (less than 10%) for SHRA/TSRA conditions at KBLH, particularly during the overnight period. FEW-SCT mid and high level cloud decks will be common through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot temperatures will prevail through the entire week with shower thunderstorm chances mainly today and possibly Monday. Strong gusty winds will be possible late this afternoon and evening with any thunderstorms, while chances for wetting rains will remain below 20%. Minimum RHs will improve through Monday with readings of 15-25% today and 20-30% Monday, before dropping back into the teens into the middle part of the week. Temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees above normal, with lower desert highs eclipsing 110 degrees nearly every afternoon. Outside of thunderstorm outflow winds, winds will follow the typical diurnal tendencies with some modest afternoon upslope gustiness. && .CLIMATE... Record highs: Date Phoenix Yuma El Centro ---- ------- ---- --------- Aug 23 114 in 2011 115 in 2011 116 in 1969 Aug 24 115 in 2020 119 in 1985 117 in 1985 Aug 25 113 in 2011 116 in 1962 117 in 1962 Aug 26 117 in 2011 115 in 2020 115 in 1981 Aug 27 114 in 2023 120 in 1981 117 in 1981 Aug 28 117 in 2023 118 in 2023 117 in 2009 Aug 29 116in 2023 117 in 1954 117 in 2005 && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Saturday for AZZ530>555-559- 560. CA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ562-565>567- 569-570. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kuhlman LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...Whittock FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman CLIMATE...18/Kuhlman