900 FXUS62 KRAH 231801 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * A very limited chance of a shower or storm across southeastern Sampson and Wayne counties this afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 200 PM Sunday... 1) The cold front that moved across central NC has stalled across the eastern Coastal Plain. Drier air will continue to move into the region from the northwest but lingering moisture near the front could lead to a stray shower or storm this afternoon along the Coastal Plain. 2) There will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon along and east of the I-95 corridor. 3) Diurnally based convection returns to the forecast on Wednesday, maximized on Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... As of 200 PM Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1... The cold front that moved across central NC has stalled across the eastern Coastal Plain. Drier air will continue to move into the region from the northwest but lingering moisture near the front could lead to a stray shower or storm this afternoon along the Coastal Plain. The latest surface analysis shows the slow moving cold front now located across the eastern Coastal Plain with northwest winds across all of the area including at Fayetteville, Goldsboro and Clinton. Drier air has been filtering into the region thanks to a northwest or westerly flow in the low levels. The RAOB at KGSO this morning noted a PW of only 0.94 inches which is around the 18th percentile. The drier air combined with good mixing has allowed dew points to fall into the upper 50s at KINT, KGSO, KEXX, and KHNZ and the lower 60s across most of the remainder of the Piedmont. Further east and southeast across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills moisture lingers with dew points in the upper 60s to around 70. This has resulted in a bit more cumulus clouds and perhaps a little vertical growth near and just behind the front from Maxton to just southeast of Fayetteville to just south of Goldsboro. Wouldn't be shocked if a rogue shower or storm develop near or east of this line through around 6pm but the coverage and intensity should be very limited and more favored to the east. Generally fair weather is expected overnight with a northwest to westerly flow aloft, An approaching mid level disturbance may trigger a weak area of low pressure to develop in the Carolinas overnight on the front, or at least buckle the front and the moisture back west slightly. Some of the CAMs, primarily the HRRR suggest a rogue shower could develop late tonight across southern or southeastern areas, there is very little support for this in the other CAM guidance so will exclude any overnight PoPs. There could be some patchy fog or low stratus across the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain toward day break as well. Lows tonight should range in the lower 60s in the Triad and VA border counties, with mid 60s in the Triangle and southern Piedmont and the upper 60s in the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Could see a few upper 50s in the typically colder spots such as Henderson and Sanford. These lows range from 1 to 4 degrees below average. Even more notable will be the dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid 60s which will result in a much more pleasant morning for the first day of school in many locations. KEY MESSAGE 2... There will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon along and east of the I-95 corridor. The cold front moving across central North Carolina today will become hung up along the Atlantic coastline tonight into Tuesday. The bulk of the convection that will occur Monday will be along the immediate coastline, but models have inched the western edge of the precipitation slightly farther to the west than they were yesterday. Other than around Fayetteville, it still appears that nearly all precipitation that occurs should remain east of I-95, and chances for storms are anywhere between 20-40%. The Storm Prediction Center does have a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe storms along the coastline, just clipping the southern tip of Sampson County. Again, it is along the coastline where the greatest instability and wind shear will remain. Key Message 3: Diurnally based convection returns to the forecast on Wednesday, maximized on Thursday. KEY MESSAGE 3... The front will inch northward Wednesday and Thursday, eventually extending from Elizabeth City to Monroe. The chance of showers/storms Wednesday afternoon should generally be to the southeast of the Triangle, although all locations are likely to see at least some minimal precipitation Thursday. As the front retreats back to the coastline for the weekend, precipitation will become more scattered, but locations in the southeast will have higher chances of rain than locations in the northwest. Temperatures should be near normal for late August, with highs around 90 and lows around 70. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 110 PM Sunday... High confidence of fair weather and VFR conditions through the afternoon and evening hours across central NC, after midnight there's a limited chance of some scattered VSBY restrictions in the far southeast. Fog and stratus earlier this morning has lifted and mixed out yielding mainly clear skies with some areas of cumulus clouds early this afternoon. The cumulus are most widespread across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills in a region of lingering moisture with bases of 3-4kft with other cumulus clouds moving off the Blue Ridge into the Triad region. There is a very limited chance that a shower or thunderstorm could develop and move across Cumberland, Sampson and Wayne counties between 18 and 23Z, mainly southeast of the KFAY terminal but the probabilities are 15% or less and will exclude from the TAF. Quiet and dry weather is expected this evening with mainly clear skies and no restrictions. While most of central NC will have no restrictions overnight, there is a limited, perhaps 20-30% chance of some shallow flog to develop across the Sandhills and the southern Coastal Plain overnight. Confidence is limited and the only terminal potentially impacted would be the KFAY terminal with the best chances of restrictions from 08 to 12Z. An upper air disturbance will approach the area on Monday and could trigger a rogue shower or storm across the Coastal Plain on Tuesday afternoon. A southeast advancing but slowing cold front has move into the Coastal Plain and the winds across central NC have largely become northwest at 5 to 10kts. A few gusts of 15-18 kts are possible this afternoon, mainly in the northern Piedmont and especially in the Triad. Winds will decrease early this evening and be light for much of the night if not becoming calm toward daybreak. Outlook: A stalled front across the Coastal Plain could produce some isolated storms near KFAY/KRWI Monday afternoon. As the air mass becomes gradually more moist over the outlook period, the risk of scattered afternoon and evening storms will gradually increase, with the greatest chances on Wednesday and especially Thursday. There will also be an increase risk of late night and early morning fog and stratus, especially across eastern and southern locations. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Blaes/Green AVIATION...Blaes  785 FXUS65 KRIW 231800 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1200 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Monsoonal moisture continues this afternoon and evening but not as widely scattered as Saturday with localized flooding possible in the strongest storms. - Strong to severe storms possible (30-40%) looking more like the evening time frame after 6PM with a line of storms from Idaho capable of producing damaging winds up to 60 mph. - Monsoonal moisture will linger much of the week, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. Temperatures will be closer to seasonable for this time of year nearing the end of August. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Much more ample sunshine across the CWA for the noon update as compared to yesterday. As such, temperatures will be a couple degree warmer this afternoon as Saturday afternoon as well. With better mixing, there will be a stronger breeze to go along with it as well gusting up to 25-30 mph at times outside of any storm activity and outflow winds. Nothing on radar currently but HiRes data is still pinpointing development by 2-3PM off leeside of the Absarokas and pushing in from the south off the Uintas for Sweetwater County. Much of this activity will be isolated in nature compared to yesterday's showers but expect lightning and a brief outflow over 40 mph with its eastward progression through the evening. With this, PoPs have been adjusted and especially after the CRON wiped out the night shift's work to account for this heading into the evening hours. This is where it will get a bit more interesting at least for Wyoming standards. A line of storm activity looks to form from southern Montana and across eastern Idaho by 6-7PM before pushing east into western Wyoming shortly there after along and ahead of the cold front. This will track through the CWA by Monday morning. SPC continues with the Marginal Severe Risk, with an introduced Slight to the southwest portions of the state to include hatched wind. This looks to be overdone, even though damaging winds are possible up to 60 mph from the outflows ahead of the front. The instability with DCAPE values less than 500 J/kg just don't look to impressive as it nears radiational cooling towards sunset. There might be an hour or so before darkness, but the FROPA will be later further south for the CWA with its positive tilt and progressive eastward push. Stronger winds than that don't look great in the least but something to keep an eye on between 6-10PM west of the Divide. Beyond that as it makes its way to the east after midnight, the juice of the storms will be lost with mainly shower activity in its wake. The cold front will push the warmer moist air south and southeast. Beyond that, status quo, as the monsoonal pattern continues but to a bit lesser extent. Temperatures behind this aforementioned cold front will bring afternoon highs closer to seasonable for this time of year ending the month of August with 80s east of the Divide even into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 It was a typical monsoon day yesterday, with some areas, mainly in southwest and in Johnson and Natrona Counties getting a LOT of rain, causing some local flooding. Other areas saw nothing. And we continue to have some showers and embedded thunder around late tonight, although intensity is significantly less. And these will continue through the night, gradually becoming weaker and less numerous. We will have another round of showers and storms today. There are some differences. For one, precipitable water values are less today by about 20 percent in most locations. This should bring less coverage and somewhat lesser rainfall rates. The other difference is that there will be more steering flow today, generally about 10 to 15 knots at 700 millibars and 25 to 35 knots at 500 millibars. So storms should have more movement. This should decrease the chance of flooding somewhat. We still have an excessive rainfall outlook across most ares West of the Divide though, so the threat is still there. There is also the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. Most of the area is under a marginal risk of severe weather today. There could be some small hail, but this not the main risk. The main risk looks to be strong wind gusts. Roughly north and west of a Buffalo to Riverton to Lyman line has a Conditional 1 outlook for wind, or possible convective wind gusts to 75 mph. Soundings do show some inverted V profiles, especially across northwestern Wyoming where the surface will be drier, with low and mid level lapse rates close to 9 C/Km. This could lead to some strong downburst winds later today. Again, the best chance would be across the northwest but most areas will have a chance. And, like previous nights, most convection should end after sunset but a few showers and storms will likely linger through the night. As for temperatures, they should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with more sunshine expected. The rest of the week looks like more of the same as the annoying monsoonal moisture will hang around the area through at least Thursday and possibly into Friday as well. The models continue to have different ideas on which day will be more active with no real well defined shortwaves with changes from day to day. Precipitable water generally average about 125 to 150 percent of normal through the period though. So, at this point we went with a generic solution of mainly diurnal showers and storms each afternoon. Temperatures should remain fairly similar through the period, not very hot but averaging around 4 to 8 degrees above normal on average, with the possibility of a cooler day if there is more cloud cover than expected. Drier air may then work in for next weekend and bring a return to drier weather but uncertainty remains high on the exact timing. So, all in all, it continues to look like more of the same as the summer of the monsoon lives on in western and central Wyoming. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1056 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon between about 21z and 03z. Gusty outflow winds 30 to 50 knots are possible with any storm. While most activity ends this evening, models indicated a possible push of light showers across southwestern Wyoming (KBPI/KPNA/KRKS) between 01z and 07z, which could keep rain around those sites. No precipitation expected into Monday morning. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Lowe DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Wittmann  857 FXUS65 KTFX 231800 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1200 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front will move across the region today bringing drier and breezy conditions. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon with a chance a few may become severe. - Cooler temperatures will persist over the next couple days before warming up towards the middle of the week. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 454 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: An upper-level trough will make its way into Montana today with the accompanying surface cold front expected to bring gusty winds to the region along with a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. These thunderstorms will be drier in nature which will also increase fire weather concerns, particularly across Southwest Montana, through the evening. Behind the trough, more zonal flow will set up allowing for temperatures to remain relatively cooler at least over the next couple days before upper-level ridging starts to build by the middle of the week. Lingering monsoonal moisture in the region along with the chance for some additional moisture towards the end of the week may provide daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially for Southwest Montana. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Thunderstorms Sunday: With ample CAPE and shear in place and the cold front moving through, there is decent support for thunderstorm develop across the region this afternoon and evening. The remaining question is how this event will play out. The 00Z suite of hi-res models, particularly the HRRR, came in with much less coverage compared to previous runs and between the remaining hi-res models there is still some disagreement about whether there will be higher coverage in Southwest Montana or Central Montana. Some models like the NAM have pointed towards a threat of thunderstorms forming off the Little Belts and quickly becoming strong as they move into Judith Basin and Fergus county. While uncertainty remains in who will get what, there is confidence that the majority of thunderstorm activity will move off into eastern Montana by 7 PM. Additionally the main hazards will be frequent lightning and strong, gusty winds with hail being a secondary hazard primarily with the initial storms that develop. -thor && .AVIATION... 23/18Z TAF Period The primary concern during the TAF period is isolated showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon and early evening along and east of I-15. Severe wind gusts and large hail will be possible with thunderstorms, with best chances for isolated 50-65kts gusts at KHVR and KLWT. Breezy west to southwest synoptic winds settle in this afternoon as well. Storms clear during the evening, which will help clear out clouds. For KGTF: West winds of 10 to 20 kts with gusts up to 35 kts will continue through 24/04z. Thunderstorm chances remain low at KGTF this afternoon. However, there's a 30% chance an isolated storm initiates over the terminal with little to no warning. Strong winds and hail are the primary hazards with thunderstorms. -Wilson && .FIRE WEATHER... A surface front will bring gusty westerly winds through the afternoon hours across the region. Widespread gusts over 35 mph are possible and will be enhanced by any thunderstorm activity that develops. Minimum RH values will be most critical in Southwest Montana where the RFW is currently in effect for Sunday afternoon and evening. Further north, conditions will be windy but not quite as dry. Additionally there is some disagreement in the latest models as to how the thunderstorms will develop and how widespread they will be. With this uncertainty in place thedecision was made to hold off on issuing a RFW for North-Central Montana for now. But elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will be a concern across the entire region. Where thunderstorms do develop, the concerns will be frequent lightning and gusty/erratic winds which may lead to new fire starts and make new and/or existing fires difficult to contain. -thor && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 89 53 81 52 / 20 0 0 0 CTB 80 50 76 48 / 20 0 0 0 HLN 86 50 84 54 / 30 0 0 0 BZN 86 49 83 49 / 30 10 0 0 WYS 78 40 79 41 / 30 20 0 20 DLN 85 47 84 49 / 20 0 0 0 HVR 93 55 82 51 / 30 10 0 0 LWT 89 52 78 48 / 50 30 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  978 FXUS61 KCAR 231802 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 202 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased fog tonight (Sunday night) and Monday night. Increased chances for strong to possibly locally severe thunderstorms across the interior Tuesday afternoon. Increased confidence in strong convection Friday afternoon/evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Areas of dense fog tonight (Sunday night), and possibly again Monday night. Fog will impact travel conditions. 2) Chance of showers persists late this (Sunday) afternoon through Monday afternoon, with possibly thunderstorms in Northern Maine Monday afternoon. 3) Chance of showers and thunderstorms for all but coastal Downeast Maine Tuesday and mainly across northern Maine Wednesday. 4) Thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening, some of which may be locally strong with gusty winds and small hail. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Areas of dense fog tonight (Sunday night), and possibly again Monday night. Fog will impact travel conditions. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Fog is the main concern. Dense fog was present Sunday morning especially near the coast. With the airmass getting even a bit moister, think that tonight will be a repeat performance, except areas further inland will have a better shot at getting the fog. The best chance of the dense fog is near the Downeast fog, but can't rule out significant fog further inland too. The fog should generally dissipate during the day Monday, but fog appears likely again Monday night. There may be a slightly later onset to the fog in the evening Monday compared to this (Sunday) evening, but still think the fog could be locally dense by later Monday night. KEY MESSAGE 2... Chance of showers persists late this (Sunday) afternoon through Monday afternoon, with possibly thunderstorms in Northern Maine Monday afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... As of 2pm Sunday afternoon, lots of clouds and low-level moisture, but not much more than drizzle. There are some heavier showers/storms south of our area that will move north into especially eastern portions of our area and bring another shot of showers later this afternoon into the evening. Can't rule out an embedded storm and some heavier downpours, but nothing remotely strong for thunderstorms, and no flooding, with a few places getting another quarter inch of rain or a bit more. Probably some drying later tonight into Monday morning, but with a bit of clearing, expect enough instability to showers and storms to fire off by about midday. Scattered showers/storms are expected, with the best chance being inland away from the more stable marine layer. That said, even in the wetter north, only going with a 40-60 percent chance of showers/storms, best chance in the western North Woods. Monday won't be a rainout by any means. Can't rule out a couple of the storms being on the stronger side with gusty winds, but this is a pretty minimal threat, and there is some uncertainty how many storms can fire in the first place. KEY MESSAGE 3... Chance of showers and thunderstorms for all but coastal Downeast Maine Tuesday and mainly across northern Maine Wednesday. Some storms maybe strong to locally severe. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... The axis of an upper level closed low that is gradually weakening as it passes to the north, then northeast Tuesday- Wednesday, should bring with it sufficient instability in the low-mid levels with its associated cold-pool aloft, that is should produce scattered to potentially numerous showers and isolated to scattered showers areawide on Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon, low to mid level lapse rates should be around 8-8.5C/km, with a few hundred J/kg of CAPE and around 35-45 kt of bulk shear. This should produce some strong to locally severe storms across the entire region. Wet bulb zero heights are around 7500-8500 ft away from the coast so the greatest risk would be small to possibly marginally severe hail. On Wednesday,as the upper low weakens and retreats to the northeast, the threat will be limited to the North, with low level lapse rates around 7.5-8 C/km, around 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE and around 20-30 kt of shear. Once again strong to possibly locally severe storms are possible with mainly isolated storms across the North. The wetbulb zero height is a little higher 8500-9000 J/kg, but still low enough to support hail. With the stronger CAPE, the main threat is both strong winds and small to marginally severe hail in the strongest convection across the North on Wednesday. KEY MESSAGE 4... Thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening, some of which may be locally strong side with gusty winds and small hail. KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION... A cold front crosses the area Friday afternoon and evening on the leading edge of a full latitude trough pushing into the region, with the added support of a northern stream shortwave pushing through the trough around that time. With the potential for 500-1500 J/kg of CAPE and 25-35KT of bulk shear, there is a risk of some locally strong thunderstorms ahead of the front, with the main threat strong gusty winds. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Rest of Today...Mainly IFR with a intermittent MVFR possible. SE/W wind 5-10 kts. Can't rule out a storm after 21z, but not enough confidence to put in any TAFs. Tonight...Conditions deteriorating to LIFR or lower at all terminals with low clouds and fog. Fairly high confidence in these low conditions. Light winds. Monday...Conditions improving to VFR for most places by 18z, though MVFR/IFR could persist near the coast. Possibly an afternoon storm at northern terminals. S wind increasing to around 10 kts. Monday Night...Conditions deteriorating to IFR or lower at all terminals. Not as high of confidence in the poor conditions as for tonight, but still at least 60 percent confidence in IFR prevailing. Light winds. Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible in any stronger convection from KBGR on north. Chance of MVFR or lower early Tuesday morning at all terminals in low ceilings and/or fog. Tuesday night: VFR. Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible in any stronger convection at northern terminals, otherwise VFR. Wednesday night-Thursday night: VFR. LLWS possible Thursday night. Friday: VFR in the morning, then MVFR or lower possible in any showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon. LLWS possible. S winds G15-20KT possible. && .MARINE... Fog over the waters through Monday night. S/SE winds 15 kts or less and seas 2-4 ft. A few storms possible over the waters late this afternoon into early this evening. Sustained winds of 15 kt or less and seas of 4 ft or less are forecast on all waters out to 60NM from Tuesday through Friday. There is a chance for dense fog on the waters Tuesday morning, reducing visibility to less than 1 nm. There is the chance for thunderstorms over the waters late on Friday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TF/PM AVIATION...TF/PM  041 FXUS61 KILN 231804 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 204 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased precipitation chances into this evening and also added patchy fog in for overnight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible into this evening across parts of the area. 2) Dry and cool to start the week on Monday, Thunderstorm chances return for Wednesday night into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) An upper level disturbance will move across the area through this evening allowing for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. This will be focused initially north of I-70 and then chances will shift into central portions of the forecast area. Dry conditions are expected south of the Ohio River. Due to low freezing level, cannot rule out small hail with a few of the storms. Severe weather is not expected. After precipitation moves out overnight there will be the potential for some patchy fog later in the overnight hours. KEY MESSAGE 2) Cool and dry conditions are expected for Monday with just some cu. Cannot rule out a sprinkle in central Ohio, however probability was too low to mention. Continued dry conditions are expected through the day on Wednesday. Temperatures on Monday are expected to be in the 70s for highs in most locations. On Tuesday a few highs near and south of the Ohio River will rise into the 80s, elsewhere expect 70s again for highs. Low temperatures in the 50s are generally expected at night Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday nights. Shower and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast for Wednesday night into Thursday as a system moves through during that time. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR cu will be present into this evening and then again on Monday. An upper level disturbance will lead to isolated to scattered showers with some thunderstorms as well. Have tempo showers in at KDAY, KCMH, KLCK, and KILN. Left out thunder mention at this time due to lower probability. Winds will be around 10 knots today. Overnight winds decrease and skies clear out. Will see the potential for some fog at KLUK and KILN. Winds will start to pick up again for Monday, however they are expected to remain around 10 knots or less. Dry conditions are expected for Monday. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...08  034 FXUS63 KDDC 231804 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 104 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread accumulating rainfall possible on Tuesday. There is a 50 to 60% chance that rainfall totals Tuesday night will be greater than 0.25 inches west of highway 283. - There will be a slight chance for severe thunderstorms late Tuesday with the main hazard being large hail and strong damaging wind gusts. - Hot conditions with highs near 100 degrees in some areas on Monday and Tuesday will give way to cooler temperatures mid week. Highs on Wednesday will be mainly in the lower 90s but there is a 60-75% chance for highs to be less than 90 degrees along the I-70 corridor and around the Garden City area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Earlier this morning, an area of weakening convection was moving across north central Kansas as an upper level disturbance embedded in a 10-15 knot west/northwest flow crosses western Kansas. A 500mb high remains in place across the southwest United States while an upper level trough was located over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface a surface boundary extended from eastern Colorado to the Panhandle of Texas. Models today remain in good agreement and have run to run consistency. These models show minimal movement of the surface boundary over the next 36 hours as the next subtle upper level trough rotates around the 500mb high and approaches western Kansas late today. As this upper level system moves out into the west central high plains late today there will be a chance for scattered afternoon thunderstorms over eastern Colorado and along the surface boundary which will be located near the Oklahoma Panhandle border which, if they develop, will move southeast. A few of the stronger storms early tonight may be capable of producing wind gusts of 50 to near 60 mph. As for the possible thunderstorms that may develop over eastern Colorado late today...they weaken and cross extreme southwest Kansas later tonight. For the first few days of this upcoming work week the 500mb high over the southwest United states will move very slowly westward which will result in placing southwest Kansas on the northeast edge of the upper highs and in a northwest flow regime. Based on this southwest Kansas can look forward to multiple opportunities for scattered thunderstorms as additional upper waves rotate out of the Rockies and into the Plains. As for the storms on Monday...conditions are expected to be similar to those anticipated later tonight as the next upper level trough approaches from the west. Isolated wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph will be the main hazard before sunset across west of highway 83. A better chance for thunderstorms is expected late Tuesday as the next upper level trough moves across the Western High Plains. Latest ensembles continue to show strong consensus on timing and track of this next upper wave. This upper wave will be associated with the right entrance region of an upper level jet as it crosses the Northern Plains. Ahead of this Tuesday upper wave the ensembles indicate now a 50-60% probability of MUCAPE >500j/kg and bulk shear >30 knots over western Kansas along with southeasterly upslope flow of near 70 degree dewpoints. Along with the slight chance for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday there will also be a chance for widespread beneficial rainfall to be possible for some areas of southwest Kansas from this Tuesday night event based on the high PWATS the ensembles forecast across southwest Kansas as storms develop and moves southeast along a moist instability axis. Current PWAT values are forecast to be near 1.5 inches (roughly 80% of normal). In addition to the high PWATS the latest NBM guidance has a 50 to 60% chance that rainfall totals Tuesday night will be greater than 0.25 inches west of highway 283. This upper level trough crossing western Kansas Tuesday night will not only bring a +60% chance for thunderstorms to southwest Kansas Tuesday night but it will also allow a cold front to move into southwest Kansas on Wednesday. This cold front will briefly bring an end to the hot (near 100 degree) temperatures across southwest Kansas Monday and Tuesday. Highs mid week will be more seasonal with highs mainly in the lower 90s. Latest NBM even has a 60-75% chance for highs to be less than 90 degrees along the I-70 corridor and around the Garden City area. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR ceilings at or above 10000ft AGL along with some scattered thunderstorms will be possible for the next few hours in the Hays area as an upper level trough crosses western Kansas. These clouds and convection will move east of the area between 19 and 20z with skies clearing. Clear skies this afternoon across southwest Kansas will then give way to another increase in clouds at or above 12000ft AGL after sunset. Gusty southwest winds at near 20 knots this afternoon will decrease to 10 to 15 knots between 00z and 03z Monday. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Burgert AVIATION...Burgert  152 FXUS63 KDLH 231807 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 107 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The next chance for showers and storms will be late Monday night through Tuesday. - Severe storms are possible, particularly Tuesday afternoon and evening with the passage of a cold front. - Seasonal, dry conditions return for the later part of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Current Conditions/Tonight: Gorgeous conditions across the Northland this afternoon with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 70s. Surface high pressure starts to shift to the east tonight with another dose of cool temperatures expected. Low temperatures tonight will dip back into the 40s with our colder spots likely falling into the upper 30s again. Monday: Surface high pressure will have been shunted off to the east with southerly warm air advection moving back into the Northland. High temperatures will increase a couple degrees from the previous day with some isolated spots seeing low 80s. Precipitation chances increase late Monday and into Tuesday as a Low pressure system moves across Canada. Some of the CAMs are quite bullish with the onset of precipitation initially in the early evening hours as a weak shortwave rounds the upper level ridge in place ahead of the approaching system. For now, we have limited PoPs to 15% as soundings still look fairly dry during this time period and the strength of the available forcing does not look overly strong with height rises still in play aloft. Better forcing for ascent arrives later into the night as the system moves across the Northern Plains with a cold front sliding into the Red River Valley. The warm sector ahead of the cold front in our CWA will be able to generate some instability with MUCAPE projected to be around 1000 J/kg. Bulk shear is pretty minimal through Tuesday morning and mid level lapse rates are not overly favorable so current thinking is that any storms that do fire off will remain sub severe producing small hail. The strongest storms look to remain to the west at this time where SPC has a marginal risk outlined. However, this could shift east into our region. Right now the HRRR is the most aggressive of the CAMs with a linear complex marching across northern MN in the morning hours. Still have a healthy amount of skepticism in this scenario with mean wind flow not overly strong and no sustainable boundary present in the models during that timeframe. Tuesday: Lingering showers and storms in the morning are possible, especially across northern MN. Another round of showers and storms are expected to develop in the afternoon as the low pressure and associated frontal boundaries cross the Northland. Instability recovery from the morning activity will have to be monitored but the current expectation is for the region to see MUCAPE bounce back to over 1000 J/kg as surface temperates heat up into the upper 70s and 80s. Bulk shear will also see a slight uptick as mid level flow increases with a small jet streak rounding the base of the trough. With these ingredients in play we could see some isolated severe storms capable of producing 1" hail and damaging winds. SPC has a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) outlined for most of our region except near the Brainerd Lakes area. Best timing for severe storms to initiate still looks to be in the afternoon and evening hours. Wednesday-Friday: Low pressure will be sliding into the Great Lakes on Wednesday with some lingering showers and storms possible through the day. Any storms that do manage to form would likely not be severe as the mid level flow will be weaker and not capable of sustaining strong updrafts. Northerly flow will stream back into the region withhighs back in the 70s through the end of the work week. The upper level pattern maintains northwest flow with the 12Z suite of deterministic guidance keeping activity out of the region as surface high pressure expands across Manitoba and through the Upper Midwest. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Surface high pressure over the region leading to light winds and diurnal cumulus. Widespread VFR conditions persist through the day and night. The exception to this may be a brief instance of fog in the tomorrow morning at HIB/HYR. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 No expected marine hazards in the near term forecast. High pressure over the region will be sliding to the east on tomorrow. Easterly winds of 5 to 10 knots currently over the Lake will switch to out of the south tonight. By Monday afternoon these winds will switch to out of the northeast. Rain and storm chances will return early Tuesday morning and linger through Wednesday. Some storms may be strong to severe Tuesday afternoon and evening. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Surface high pressure over the region today providing mostly sunny skies and dry conditions with Min RHs falling into the 30s across the region. About the same for tomorrow as the high pressure exits to the east. Low fire weather concerns with light winds today. Tomorrow winds will switch to out of the south but still remain weak enough that fire weather concerns remain low. Rain and storm chances return Monday night and linger through Wednesday. Largely scattered activity through the period with some severe storms possible, most likely Tuesday afternoon and evening as a cold front moves across the region. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Britt AVIATION...Britt MARINE...Britt FIRE WEATHER...Britt  091 FXUS64 KFWD 231805 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 105 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... - Very hot temperatures between 102 to 112 will continue through Tuesday. The Extreme Heat Warning for all of North and Central Texas has been extended through Monday, and will likely be needed on Tuesday as well. - A drop in temperatures down into the upper 90s to mid 100s is expected from Wednesday into next weekend as low rain chances return areawide each day. However, most locations will remain hot and dry through the weekend. - Hot temperatures, low humidity and worsening drought conditions will contribute to increased wildfire starts through the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms that affected parts of North and Central Texas earlier today have dissipated, with just some lingering mid and high level cloudiness seen across the region. Despite the clouds, temperatures are already in the upper 90s to mid 100s thanks to the proximity of the large upper level ridge along the TX/NM border, as well as the drier low level troposphere noted by dewpoints mostly in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Highs still look to reach the 103-110 range this afternoon, which will be the hottest day of the summer so far at many locations. The daily record high today of 107 at both DFW and Waco could be tied or possibly broken, although more likely for DFW than Waco. No precipitation is anticipated the rest of today or tonight, with lows dropping into the usual upper 70s to mid 80s. Tomorrow will see an increase in mid level moisture and associated cloud cover across the region, and a few models suggest some virga or a sprinkle are possible mainly in the afternoon. While this could keep temperatures down a tad, low level flow becoming more southwesterly along with even drier air below 850mb should predominate and keep highs just as hot or hotter than today. Once again, the daily record highs tomorrow of 107 at both DFW and Waco could be tied or possibly broken. On Monday night, 12Z guidance shows a weak shortwave dropping southward out of Oklahoma which could spark a few showers and storms overnight similar to what we saw this morning. Have mentioned low pops (10%) for this potential in line with latest guidance. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 On Tuesday, the large H5 ridge that has dominated our weather for weeks will begin slowly shifting off to the west with a bit stronger northerly flow aloft across our neck of the woods. Storms are anticipated to our north across KS/OK, which could send out clouds and/or an outflow boundary that might impact temperatures in parts of North Texas. Given how uncertain this is two days away, overall setup still argues for a very hot day with highs near or only slightly below Monday's readings, and another Extreme Heat Warning and/or a Heat Advisory will likely be needed. From Wednesday through the rest of the week, the upper level high will continue to shift westward into AZ/NM with northwesterly flow becoming established aloft over North and Central Texas. Low level moisture will also increase somewhat with dewpoints mostly in the 60s. This pattern shift will bring a return of low rain chances areawide each day/night as any weak shortwaves aloft could bring some north to south moving showers or storms, which are hard to pinpoint this far out in time. However, most areas will remain dry which only cause our ongoing drought conditions to worsen. Highs will subsequently be on a downward trend from Wednesday through Saturday and only reach the upper 90s to mid 100s. However, 12Z guidance indicates the upper high will once again shift back to the east next week which would bring our temps back up as we round out August and move into September. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions will continue this TAF period with some mid and high level cloudiness of varying coverage and thickness at times. Earlier SHRA across D10 and ACT have dissipated, and no precip impacts are anticipated at airports except for some possible virga or a light sprinkle on Monday. Winds will remain southerly around 10 knots through tomorrow with a slight increase in speeds during the day on Monday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 107 84 108 83 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 104 81 104 78 / 10 0 0 0 Paris 102 78 104 79 / 10 0 10 10 Denton 106 82 107 81 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 105 81 106 81 / 0 0 0 10 Dallas 107 84 108 83 / 10 0 0 0 Terrell 105 80 106 79 / 10 0 0 10 Corsicana 105 81 105 78 / 20 0 0 0 Temple 105 79 104 76 / 10 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 109 78 110 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Monday for TXZ091>095- 100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION...Shamburger  128 FXUS64 KMOB 231806 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 106 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 104 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - A Heat Advisory is in effect for southeast Mississippi today for heat indices to around 108 degrees. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected each afternoon, particularly across the southern half of the area. Storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Hot and humid conditions continue the rest of this afternoon across the area across southeast Mississippi as heat indices soar into the 105 to 110 range. Elsewhere, afternoon mixing is helping to limit higher dewpoints keeping it a bit more tolerable for heat stress. The same can be expected on Monday, although there are some uncertainties in regards to the overall evolution of showers and storms that precludes confidence in issuing a heat advisory at this time. With that said, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will likely occur across the area both this afternoon and Monday afternoon as several shortwaves track southeast across the area. Strong, potentially damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning can be expected with any storms. As we head throughout the rest of the week, we remain in a relatively similar pattern with upper troughing remaining in control across the eastern half of the U.S. and upper ridging located across the south-central into southwestern U.S. Tuesday through Friday. This will continue to favor weak shortwaves tracking across the area throughout the period, bringing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon to the forecast area. Similar to prior days, strong, locally damaging wind gusts are possible with any storms. The heat should relax with the increased coverage of storms, with heat indices likely remaining just below heat advisory criteria as we head through the rest of the week. Afternoon temperatures also drop somewhat with highs only in the lower to middle 90's as opposed to the upper 90's to near 100 we've been enduring. A Low risk of rip currents will continue through the late week for our Alabama and Florida Panhandle beaches. MM/25 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 104 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the period, outside of isolated thunderstorms that develop late this afternoon near the coast. Light northerly flow will briefly turn southerly along the immediate coastline by late afternoon with light and variable winds expected overnight. 07/mb && .MARINE... Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A light to occasionally moderate westerly flow pattern continues through this week. Winds are expected to shift from southwesterly each afternoon to northwesterly late each night. Isolated to potentially scattered showers and storms can be expected each morning during next week with locally higher seas and winds near storms. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 74 93 73 92 / 20 70 30 60 Pensacola 78 92 76 90 / 10 60 40 70 Destin 79 90 77 89 / 10 50 40 60 Evergreen 72 94 70 93 / 20 50 20 50 Waynesboro 73 94 70 95 / 20 50 20 40 Camden 73 91 69 92 / 20 40 20 30 Crestview 73 93 71 91 / 20 60 40 70 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079. GM...None. && $$  224 FXUS61 KOKX 231808 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 208 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Aviation for 18Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Chances for showers and thunderstorms into this afternoon ahead of a cold frontal passage. Some thunderstorms could be strong with a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. 2) Possible lingering showers Monday into early Monday evening. Otherwise mainly dry with high pressure eventually building back in Monday night into midweek. 3) Chances for showers and thunderstorm return Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Heights lowering in mid levels as a closed low moves eastward. This will introduce colder temperatures aloft and help keep up convective chances. Ahead of a wave of low pressure, low level environment will become more unstable. CAMs depict convection developing more rapidly this morning especially with diurnal heating. The focus seems to be the first half of the day as CAMs really start depleting convective coverage late afternoon into the evening. This will be a high shear, low CAPE environment so there is potential for some thunderstorms to be strong to even severe. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. Threats with thunderstorms will be heavy rain, gusty winds and small hail. There is a marginal risk for damaging winds and large hail. The thunderstorms are expected to be moving fast enough with the shear to mitigate flooding potential. However, minor flooding will still be a possibility with the thunderstorms, especially for low lying, urban and poor drainage areas. Temperatures do not deviate much from normal values through today. .KEY MESSAGE 2... The closed low in the mid levels will continue slowly moving east tonight through Monday and will then slowly move farther northeast. The heights continue to lower tonight through Monday and then will start to rise Monday night. National blend of model dataset keeps dry conditions but CAMs indicate otherwise for Monday with diurnal instability. Would expect isolated to widely scattered showers on Monday with a slight chance of thunderstorms as well. Manually put this in the forecast because national blend of models is not reflecting this potential in its forecast. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions tonight through Monday. A higher confidence of dry conditions for the entire area Monday night through midweek with high pressure building in from the west. Aloft, the height rises continue and the pattern transitions from a trough to quasi-zonal. Temperatures do not deviate much from normal values tonight through midweek. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Model guidance continues to show an upper level trough pushing southeast into the Northeast Thursday into Friday. At the surface, areas of low pressure approach from the west. This will be associated with an approaching frontal system. The forecast has increasing chances of showers Thursday, with showers becoming likely Thursday night for most locations. The forecast showers continue into Friday. There will be possible thunderstorms as well but those probabilities will be less than the showers. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front moves through today, before high pressure builds from the west Monday. Widely scattered showers north and west of NYC terminals could lead to brief MVFR conditions, mainly for KHPN and KSWF. Can't entirely rule out at other terminals, but coverage and confidence is too low to include in TAF at this time. Chances decrease after 20Z or so. All terminals improve to VFR by late this afternoon. WSW or SW winds through the rest of today, speeds generally around 10 kt or less outside of thunderstorms. Gusts up to 20 kt are possible at some terminals. Winds lighten this evening, with similar flow expected on Monday. Gusts Monday afternoon likely a bit stronger than today, as high as 20 to 25 kt. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts this afternoon may be more occasional. A few gusts late Monday afternoon could approach 30 kt. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Monday PM: VFR. WSW gusts 20-25 kt. Tuesday: VFR. WSW gusts 15-20 kt. Wednesday: VFR. Light WSW/SW winds. Thursday-Friday: VFR Thu AM, becoming sub VFR with SHRA/TSRA. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Conditions on the marine zones are still expected to remain below small craft advisory thresholds during the marine forecast period. Pressure gradient overall remains relatively weak. Rip Currents: A moderate risk is expected for both today and Monday. The swell will be primarily from the SE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...DR MARINE...JM  213 FXUS63 KDMX 231808 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 108 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Generally quiet weather for the upcoming work week, with high temperatures in the low to mid-80s each day. - Some light showers are possible across the western half of Iowa late tonight into Monday morning. A few showers and thunderstorms will also be possible on Tuesday into Tuesday night, with a low risk of severe weather just to our northeast in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin. - A more active weather pattern will return with additional thunderstorm chances next weekend, but any further details remain unclear at this range. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 108 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A large surface high pressure ridge dominates the region today, stretching from south central Canada down over the Upper Midwest and Iowa. The result is seasonally comfortable conditions, light and variable winds, and a lack of low-level clouds. Meanwhile, a large 500 MB heat dome is sitting over the Desert Southwest and southern High Plains, with a ridge extending northward into central Canada. Two relatively subtle shortwave impulses are overtopping this ridge, with a larger trough moving over the Washington/British Columbia region. The first of the two shortwaves is sliding southeastward across Nebraska at this time and producing light showers there, as well as some higher cirrus clouds that are streaming over central Iowa but only modestly blunting insolation. All in all it is a beautiful day for most outdoor interests in our area. As the leading impulse slides from Nebraska into Kansas and Missouri later today, some of the showers over Nebraska may just clip the southwestern corner of our forecast area. However, dry air entrainment and subsidence associated with the surface ridge will inhibit any such eastward expansion, and recent regional radar trends support the rain staying just to our southwest so have kept the forecast dry through this evening except for some 20% POPs down by Taylor County. From tonight into Monday, as the second impulse moves overhead and in closer proximity, gradual saturation of the atmospheric column should support some light rain in our western and southwestern counties, mainly after midnight and into Monday morning. However, even then, there is a notable lack of instability and forecast soundings still show fairly substantial dry air to overcome, especially with the farther eastward one goes in our forecast area. With this in mind, have maintained relatively low (20-30%) POPs in our western counties from late tonight into early Monday, but have lowered them to 10% in our central counties and gone with light shower/sprinkle wording for the most part. No appreciable rainfall amounts are anticipated and severe weather is not expected. On Monday the surface ridge will begin to drift off to our east, allowing for a return of light southerly flow. Modest ridging aloft, in wake of the overnight shortwave impulse, will cause any lingering showers to fade out by midday and lead to dry conditions Monday afternoon and evening. By sunset, the aforementioned larger 500 MB trough currently over Washington/British Columbia will have progressed to southeastern Saskatchewan, and will subsequently move east southeastward to near Lake Superior by Wednesday morning. As it does so, it will push a reflective surface trough southeastward through our region, crossing Iowa from late Tuesday through Tuesday night. Ahead of this surface trough, a period of modest forcing for ascent ahead of the 500 MB trough, concurrent with weak warm air/moisture advection in the low levels, supports a few showers and thunderstorms during the day Tuesday and have maintained 20% POPs accordingly. Around Tuesday evening,thunderstorms are expected to develop along the advancing surface trough closer to the 500 MB low, roughly near the Minnesota/Wisconsin border. In that region stronger instability and low-level convergence along the trough supports more robust updrafts and some severe weather potential, however, this is more in question heading southward down the trough into Iowa. The forcing associated with the parent low aloft will be weaker down here, and the surface boundary a bit more washed out with weaker low-level convergence. Forecast soundings also hint at possible capping in the afternoon and evening. As such, have held POPs low (again, 20%) in our northeastern counties and the SPC convective outlook keeps a Marginal Risk of severe weather just to the northeast of Iowa. However, we will be watching over the next couple days for any signs of southward expansion of that potential and of POPs in general. As the surface trough then sinks southeastward across our service area later Tuesday night, 20% POPs are maintained in that area to account for lingering showers and storms developing along it, but any severe weather potential would diminish even further overnight. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 108 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 By Wednesday the large 500 MB heat dome will remain in place over the southwestern/south central CONUS, while the trough described in the SHORT TERM section above moves away to our east. This will allow deep-layer ridging to reassert itself just to our west, leading to a period of dry, quiet, and seasonally mild weather with daily highs in the low to mid-80s for the remainder of the week. By Friday and Saturday the pattern will begin to shift a bit, as two large 500 MB lows develop over Canada and shunt the ridge southward, with the heat dome retrograding more over the far southwestern CONUS near Arizona and New Mexico. This will cause 500 MB flow over Iowa to become more zonal, with multiple shortwave impulses moving through the flow and providing several opportunities for thunderstorms from Friday or Saturday into early the following week. While the details of any such storms are very uncertain at this range, it is fair to say that overall the weather pattern will be more active by next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are forecast with no aviation impacts anticipated. There is a very low (10-20%) chance of light rain at FOD/DSM late tonight into Monday, but between the low probability and the lack of notable impacts even if it were to occur, have not mentioned in the 18Z TAFs. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lee LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...Lee  200 FXUS65 KBOU 231808 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1208 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 FXUS65 KBOU 231138 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 538 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms through Thursday. A risk of a couple severe storms each day. - A few severe storms are expected across the plains again today, with isolated severe winds and hail possible. Best chances should stay east of the urban corridor. - Slightly cooler (but still above) normal temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday. - Gradual drying and hotter temperatures by the end of the week and through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/... Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Showers have persisted through the night across the eastern plains after yesterday's severe storms lasted well into the evening. These should continue to move eastward and completely out of our forecast area right around sunrise this morning. Today is looking to bring similar conditions to what we saw yesterday, with scattered afternoon showers expected to develop across the higher elevations and push eastward across the plains where better low- level moisture and instability will reside. For today, however, the better environment for severe potential is expected to move a little eastward from yesterday, with a slightly lower concern for the urban corridor today. There will still be a nonzero chance for some strong to severe winds, however, as DCAPE is expected to range from 1200-1500 J/kg that will support an elevated wind threat. PWAT values remain elevated today as well (ranging from .8 to 1.5 inches across the lower elevations), that will keep the potential for some localized heavy rainfall with the stronger storms. MLCAPE is expected to be greatest generally east of Denver International Airport, with upwards of 1500-2500 J/kg portrayed in forecast soundings. Shear will remain the limiting factor for more organized convection today, but 0-6 km bulk shear should get up to 30-35 kts, which will be enough to see a few more organized cells. Temperatures are expected to warm into the low to mid 90s before storms start and bring some heat relief. It will be a wash, rinse, and repeat forecast through at least Tuesday, with scattered afternoon showers and storms containing an isolated severe threat. The pattern doesn't change significantly outside of the upper-level ridge flattening out as a shortwave treks across the northern Rockies today and Monday. Temperatures will cool slightly on Tuesday and Wednesday before the ridge rebuilds across the Rockies, and warmer and drier conditions gradually work their way back for next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/... Issued at 1206 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Winds have turned northward in the last couple of hours, and should remain north/northeast until storms start to move through the area. Model guidance continues to show convection initiating around 21Z, so we've kept that as the start time for the TEMPO; however, given that this morning's inversion has disappeared in the recent ACARS soundings, and cumulus has started building over the foothills, it wouldn't be out of the question to see some showers and wind gusts as early as 20Z at KDEN. Gusty outflows with shifting winds (30- 40kts) remain more of a threat than precipitation over the TAF sites. Recent CAMs runs also keep showers lingering as long as 03- 04Z, so we've opted to extend the PROB30 another hour to account for that. Clouds should clear up and winds should shift towards drainage after any lingering showers/outflows move out of the area, sometime between 03-05Z. Winds will then turn back to the north in the morning, around15Z. Another round of showers/storms/outflows is expected at about the same time tomorrow, starting around 21-22Z. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...9 AVIATION...AGS  608 FXUS62 KCHS 231811 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 211 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and again Monday afternoon. - 2)Increasing rain chances mid to late week with the potential for locally heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and again Monday afternoon. The synoptic pattern aloft today and tomorrow will be similar, featuring large scale troughing along the eastern CONUS. A weak surface front will linger in the vicinity of the SC Midlands into the middle of the week. Shortwave troughs are expected to ripple across the southern periphery of the large scale troughing aloft today and Monday. This synoptic set up will allow for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop both this afternoon and again Monday afternoon. Today: Plentiful dry air aloft was observed with the 12Z KCHS RAOB sounding, yielding a PWAT value of 1.47". PWATs this afternoon are only forecast to increase slightly across the region, in the 1.5 to 1.6" range. This will limit the overall heavy rain threat today. However, with the dry air aloft the 12Z sounding this morning also observed a DCAPE value of 1100 J/kg. DCAPE values this afternoon are forecast to increase upwards of 1500 J/kg. Damaging wind gusts will be a threat with any storm that is able to form this afternoon. Machine learning guidance for this afternoon depicts the main threat area across the SC Lowcountry. Current GOES satellite imagery shows a rather agitated cumulus field across the SC Lowcountry and the KCLX radar has detected the first shower of this afternoon as of 2 PM in northern Charleston County. As the sea breeze progresses further inland and additional outflow boundaries interact isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon. The entire forecast area remains outlooked in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) from the Storm Prediction Center. Thunderstorm activity will wane with nightfall. Monday: Forecast soundings paint a similar picture to Sunday on Monday afternoon, however with PWATs increasing to around 1.7 to 1.8". Coverage of thunderstorms is forecast to be greater, with scattered to numerous PoPs in the forecast. DCAPE values are still forecast to be upwards of 1500 J/kg. Damaging wind gusts will again be the main hazard. Machine learning guidance shows the main threat area across SE Georgia, with slightly higher probabilities of damaging wind gusts than portrayed on Sunday. The current outlook from the Storm Prediction Center is another Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5). KEY MESSAGE 2: Increasing rain chances mid to late week with the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Wednesday through Thursday, the region will remain between a Bermuda high and low pressure over the Southern Plains. This pattern should support steady southwest H85 winds across the Deep South and Southeast U.S., aiding in rising PW values across the region. By Thursday, GFS forecast soundings indicate PW values exceeding 1.9" across SE GA and SC. As temperatures warm into the low to mid 90s, a sea breeze should develop each afternoon, pushing inland through the early evening hours. Instability could pool into moderate levels given dewpoints in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. The forecast will indicate scattered to numerous PoPs for showers and thunderstorms. Friday into Saturday, GFS and ECMWF indicates that the weakness between the western Atlantic and south Rockies ridges will deepen across the region. A weak cold front could drape across the forecast area during the late week. In addition, an afternoon and evening sea breeze is expected to develop each day. Given warm and humid conditions across the region, the cold front and sea breeze boundaries should yield areas of numerous showers and thunderstorms. This pattern may provide weak flow, resulting in storm motions around 15 mph. In addition, multi-cell storms could develop along the sea breeze and any outflow boundaries. Provided PW values near 2 inches, excessive rainfall could occur, especially over areas of recent heavy rainfall. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... KCHS/KJZI: VFR to start the 18Z TAFs with VCTS beginning at 20/19Z. A TEMPO group has been introduced at each terminal to highlight flight restrictions from TSRA this afternoon. VFR will prevail thereafter. KSAV: Prevailing VFR through the 18Z TAF period. Confidence was not high enough in impacts from TSRA to include mention in a TEMPO group so have just included a few hours of VCTS this afternoon. Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR with scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon potentially bringing temporary restrictions. && .MARINE... Today through Friday: The pressure pattern should favor southwest winds between 10 to 15 kts. As a result, seas will likely remain between 2 to 3 ft. Any thunderstorms that move over the waters have the potential to bring higher wind gusts and frequent lightning, especially late Monday afternoon/evening off the GA and lower SC coast. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: August 24: KCHS: 76/2010 KCXM: 80/1975 August 25: KCHS: 77/1982 August 28: KCHS: 77/2020 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ CPM/NED  607 FXUS63 KMQT 231808 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 208 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong winds and high waves over eastern Lake Superior are creating dangerous rip currents and swimming conditions along the beaches of Marquette County eastward today; a Beach Hazard Statement is in effect. - Spotty light lake effect rain showers/sprinkles are possible over the east half today. - Seasonable temperatures are expected through the week with the exception of slightly below normal temperatures today and tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 With cold air advection from Canada bringing delta-Ts into the mid- teens Celsius today, expect lake effect cloud cover and rain showers to develop over the eastern half of the U.P. as stout high pressure moves in from the west with time. While the cooler air moving in from Canada today will keep highs a little bit lower than yesterday, temperatures should still get up into at least the 60s across the area with the south central potentially getting up to around 70F. The cold air advection will work to create strong winds and high, short-period waves over southeastern Lake Superior today. Thus, expect dangerous rip currents and waves along the nearshores from Marquette County eastward today; stay safe and out of the water today as the swimming conditions are potentially life-threatening! While the high pressure moving in will bring an end to the lake effect rain showers/sprinkles over the east half by this evening, with antecedent cooler air still overhead and clear skies tonight, expect low tonight to potentially drop into the 40s to potentially 30s over the interior areas; for some of the colder spots, cannot rule out some patches of frost as we see one of our first tastes of Fall this year. Expect a return to generally near normal late-Summer temperatures for the rest of this week as a more active period of high pressure ridging followed by a subsequent shortwave low is in store for the rest of the week. Thus, near normal temperatures and dry conditions on Monday give way to slightly above normal temperatures by Tuesday as well as rain showers and thunderstorms, before more normal temperatures are seen over the U.P. once again by the end of the week; another weaker shortwave low may bring additional showers and potentially a thunderstorm over the area behind the main low for the mid-week before drier conditions are seen once again by the end of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 207 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are anticipated at all three sites for the period, with the exception of visibility restrictions at IWD prior to dawn and MVFR ceilings at SAW this afternoon due to to lake enhanced clouds and showers. At KIWD, LAMP LIFR ceilings and visibility probabilities run around 15% for the pre-dawn period; given very low winds and a moist atmosphere, included BR in TEMPO group for this site. At KCMX, gusty northerlies lay down a bit overnight. At KSAW, expecting ceilings to bounce between VFR and MVFR this afternoon as showers are generated from onshore northerly flow; these should clear out as diurnal heating increases throughout the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 235 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Lake Superior - N to NW winds of 20 to 30 knots continue over the lake today, especially over the east half where a few gale force gusts up to 35 knots could be seen from time to time along the shoreline from Marquette to Grand Marais, Michigan (NBM shows up to 60% chance). As high pressure builds in from the west today into tonight, expect the winds to weaken slightly as they back more towards the NW (20 to 30 knots over the east half). The windscontinue to slowly weaken on Monday before dropping to 20 knots or less again by Monday evening. With a Clipper low approaching for the mid-week, showers and storms return to Lake Superior by Tuesday afternoon, with winds increasing from the S at 20 to 25 knots over at least the eastern half of the lake by Tuesday night. While the winds weaken to around 20 knots or less by Wednesday, shower and storm chances continue through the mid-week as a weaker shortwave rolls into the region via rotating around the Clipper. As cold air advection behind the Clipper and high pressure ridging return to the area towards the end of the week, expect the winds to pick up from the NW again by Thursday; as of right now, the NBM has around a 50% chance for low-end gales between Stannard Rock and the Marquette County shoreline during the daytime on Thursday. With high pressure ridging returning by Friday, expect light winds of 20 knots or less to return to the lake by then. Northern Green Bay and Northwestern Lake MI - N to NW winds of 20 to 30 knots continue today via cold air advection moving overhead as high pressure trudges in from the west. While it does take awhile, expect the winds to die down to around 15 knots or less again late on Monday as the high's center passes through the area. However, don't expect the calmer waters to last all that long as a Clipper low approaches the area for the mid-week. Thus, we can expect S winds to gust up to 20 to 25 knots again Tuesday evening and Wednesday as the low approaches. In addition, rain showers and thunderstorms return to the area late Tuesday night and remain until Wednesday evening. While some calmer seas could be seen Wednesday evening, with the cold air advection behind the Clipper moving in on Thursday, expect the winds to pick back up to 15 to 20 knots from the NW again as some showers and storms could be seen once more during the daylight hours. High pressure moving in from the west late this week brings winds back down to 15 knots or less Thursday night into the end of the workweek. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ005-006. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TAP AVIATION...RE MARINE...TAP  569 FXUS64 KSJT 231811 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 111 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Big Country, Heartland and Concho Valley areas this afternoon. - An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for the Big Country Monday afternoon. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Concho Valley and Heartland Monday afternoon. - Hot and mainly dry weather will persist through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 107 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Hot temperatures are once occurring across West Central Texas this afternoon, with highs already into the upper 90s or surpassing 100. Highs this afternoon will top out in the upper 90s to near 109. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Big Country, Concho Valley, and Heartland. Overnight lows will be in the 70s to lower 80s. An upper level ridge will be centered across southeast New Mexico on Monday. This will result in another hot and dry day across West Central Texas with highs well above seasonal normals. Highs will be in the upper 90s to near 109 across most of the area. A Heat Advisory was issued for much of the Concho Valley, Heartland and portions of the Big Country as temperatures reach or exceed 105. Portions of the northern Big Country may reach or exceed 110, so have issued an Extreme Heat Warning for Monday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Sunday) Issued at 107 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The upper level ridge will shift slightly west on Tuesday, but still remain centered across New Mexico. This will result in another very hot day across the area, with highs in the upper 90s to near 108. A heat Advisory will likely be needed for the Big Country and portions of the Concho Valley and Heartland. Wednesday and Thursday, the upper level ridge shifts a bit farther west. This will result in "less hot" temperatures, but temperatures will still remain well above seasonal normals. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 90s to near 104, with highs on Thursday in the mid 90s to near 102. West Central Texas will be on the eastern periphery of the ridge and the ECMWF and GFS are both indicating at least isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms developing Wednesday and Thursday. For now have kept low rain chances (15-30%) in the forecast, but these may eventually need to be increased some. Drier weather should return Friday int Saturday. Highs will continue to be above normal, in the upper 90s to near 104. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions will remain in place for the remainder of the TAF period. Expect gusty winds at times during the late morning and afternoon hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 81 108 80 106 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 76 105 76 104 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 74 103 72 103 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 77 106 75 105 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 81 108 79 107 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 73 100 72 99 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 76 104 74 103 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan- Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Jones-Mason-McCulloch-Nolan- Runnels-San Saba-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday for Callahan- Fisher-Haskell-Jones-Nolan-Shackelford-Taylor-Throckmorton. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday for Brown-Coke- Coleman-Concho-Irion-Mason-McCulloch-Runnels-San Saba-Sterling- Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...Daniels LONG TERM....Daniels AVIATION...41  615 FXUS64 KSJT 231811 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 111 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Big Country, Heartland and Concho Valley areas this afternoon. - An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for the Big Country Monday afternoon. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Concho Valley and Heartland Monday afternoon. - Hot and mainly dry weather will persist through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 107 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Hot temperatures are once occurring across West Central Texas this afternoon, with highs already into the upper 90s or surpassing 100. Highs this afternoon will top out in the upper 90s to near 109. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Big Country, Concho Valley, and Heartland. Overnight lows will be in the 70s to lower 80s. An upper level ridge will be centered across southeast New Mexico on Monday. This will result in another hot and dry day across West Central Texas with highs well above seasonal normals. Highs will be in the upper 90s to near 109 across most of the area. A Heat Advisory was issued for much of the Concho Valley, Heartland and portions of the Big Country as temperatures reach or exceed 105. Portions of the northern Big Country may reach or exceed 110, so have issued an Extreme Heat Warning for Monday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Sunday) Issued at 107 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The upper level ridge will shift slightly west on Tuesday, but still remain centered across New Mexico. This will result in another very hot day across the area, with highs in the upper 90s to near 108. A heat Advisory will likely be needed for the Big Country and portions of the Concho Valley and Heartland. Wednesday and Thursday, the upper level ridge shifts a bit farther west. This will result in "less hot" temperatures, but temperatures will still remain well above seasonal normals. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 90s to near 104, with highs on Thursday in the mid 90s to near 102. West Central Texas will be on the eastern periphery of the ridge and the ECMWF and GFS are both indicating at least isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms developing Wednesday and Thursday. For now have kept low rain chances (15-30%) in the forecast, but these may eventually need to be increased some. Drier weather should return Friday int Saturday. Highs will continue to be above normal, in the upper 90s to near 104. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions will remain in place for the remainder of the TAF period. Expect gusty winds at times during the late morning and afternoon hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 81 108 80 106 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 76 105 76 104 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 74 103 72 103 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 77 106 75 105 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 81 108 79 107 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 73 100 72 99 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 76 104 74 103 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan- Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Jones-Mason-McCulloch-Nolan- Runnels-San Saba-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday for Callahan- Fisher-Haskell-Jones-Nolan-Shackelford-Taylor-Throckmorton. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday for Brown-Coke- Coleman-Concho-Irion-Mason-McCulloch-Runnels-San Saba-Sterling- Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...Daniels LONG TERM....Daniels AVIATION...41SJT-870871  980 FXUS64 KSHV 231819 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 119 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 112 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Isolated thunderstorms are possible across our south tonight, and across our north and east through the day tomorrow. A few storms may become strong to severe. - The Heat Advisory will be allowed to expire tonight for some of our south Arkansas counties, remaining in effect through tomorrow evening elsewhere. - Central Louisiana may see more strong to severe storms Monday. Warm conditions with occasional showers and storms will continue through the remainder of the week ahead. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 112 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Aside from a few very spotty showers in east Texas, this morning's rainfall has diminished, and the afternoon looks to remain mostly dry areawide. Short range CAMs continue to show some isolated showers and storms across our southernmost zones near the Toledo Bend Country this evening, with a few potentially becoming strong, but confidence in location of impacts is still limited at this writing. Any storms that do develop should diminish quickly after sunset. The remainder of the night should remain dry areawide, with the next rainfall chances arriving tomorrow morning and remaining confined to our northeasternmost zones, from Hope along the I-30 corridor of Arkansas into north central Louisiana, including Monroe and Jena. These rainfall chances will continue through the day and into the evening and overnight hours. The SPC is highlighting an increased chance of strong to severe storms producing damaging wind gusts, with the highest risk largely southeast of the ArkLaTex, as these storms track down the lower Mississippi Valley. The impacts of this anticipated rainfall and the associated cloud cover on the temperature forecast has prompted an adjustment to our heat headlines. For Union, Nevada, Howard, Columbia and Hempstead counties, the Heat Advisory will be allowed to expire this evening. Elsewhere, the Advisory has been extended through tomorrow evening for heat indices up to 109 degrees. Beyond tomorrow night, our conditionally unstable pattern remains in play, with periodic rounds of showers and storms primarily across our north and east, but timing and coverage specifics will be driven by the position, extent and strength of the high over the desert southwest, and as such are very much in flux. As of this writing, a few storms are possible overnight Monday into Tuesday, followed by dry conditions Tuesday and returning rain north and east Wednesday into Thursday. Showers and storms across our south will be possible Friday with a warm and dry weekend to follow. This heat wave will continue through the middle of the week, with long range guidance giving us a bit of a "cool down" in the form of more highs in the 90s than in the triple digits by the end of this extended forecast period. /26/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are expected to continue through much of the period with light cloud cover and southerly winds. There may be some convection development this afternoon, especially around KLFK and KTYR but confidence was too low to include in this package. Winds should be light and variable overnight until becoming southwesterly by midday, occasionally gusting up near 15 kts around western sites. Shower development looks more likely beginning around 24/12z from the northeast. This will mainly bring VCTS to KELD, KMLU, and possibly KTXK. The main hazards of any showers that develop will likely be visibility reductions and gusty winds. /57/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 112 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening for isolated strong storms that may produce locally gusty winds across portions of East Texas and North Louisiana south of I-20. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 79 103 80 101 / 0 10 20 10 MLU 77 100 77 99 / 0 30 20 20 DEQ 73 101 73 103 / 0 10 10 10 TXK 77 101 77 101 / 0 10 20 10 ELD 75 98 75 100 / 0 30 30 10 TYR 81 105 79 103 / 0 0 10 10 GGG 79 106 79 104 / 0 0 20 10 LFK 77 103 77 100 / 20 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ050-059-070-071. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ051-060-061-072- 073. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ DISCUSSION...26 AVIATION...57  286 FXUS61 KGYX 231824 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 224 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes were needed for this forecast package. Initial showers early this afternoon will continue to move east and diminish while some thunderstorms develop later this afternoon and into the evening. A few of these storms could become strong to marginally severe over southern/central New Hampshire. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. An expansive upper low will lead to some scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon/evening with more isolated activity expected on Monday. 2. The next chance of widespread rain comes late in the week, bookended by periods of dry weather through midweek and over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... An expansive closed upper low is currently located over southwestern Ontario and will gradually meander up into central Quebec by Monday afternoon. This pattern will lead to unsettled weather conditions to start the new week. An initial batch of rain showers continues to move east as a warm front lifts over New Hampshire. This activity should start to diminish as it approaches western Maine and it loses upper level support. A few of the latest CAMs are suggesting that we could see a few modest breaks in the clouds behind the early shower activity, mainly over portions of western New Hampshire in the late afternoon hours. Storms should be ongoing over Vermont along a cold front that will approach the border around 00z this evening. While most CAMs suggest that these storms will be weakening on their approach (diurnal timing is less than favorable), HRRR and RAP soundings are still showing ~500 to 700 J/kg of MLCAPE and plenty of 0-6km bulk shear in the 40 to 50 knot range. While a few isolated storms will be possible ahead of the front, the best chance for a strong to marginally severe storm or two appears to be in the 22z to 03z time frame over southern or central New Hampshire. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and small hail will be the main threats. Rain chances diminish overnight, but another round of widespread fog is again likely. As we remain in cyclonic flow aloft, more clouds and showers/storms are possible on Monday, especially over the mountains. Storm coverage and instability will be more limited than today but forecast shear would support a stronger storm or two depending on how the environment evolves. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... An upper level low continues to slowly move through Quebec Tuesday leaving us under the influence of the trough for one more day. This means mostly cloudy conditions and a few showers are likely for the mountains with high temperatures in the low to mid- 70s. South of the mountains should see more sun, but northwesterly flow dropping 850 mb temperatures to +10C is going to limit high temperatures to the upper 70s to low 80s. With less of a chance of seeing any precipitation due to downslope flow. Clearing skies and calm winds are going to allow temperatures to fall into the 50s Tuesday night. Another trough approaches later in the week, but in between we see some brief ridging bringing drier weather and a warming trend Wednesday through most of Thursday. Wednesday remains comfortable with high temperatures just a few degrees warmer than Tuesday, but continued southwesterly flow is going to make Thursday feel a bit stickier as dewpoints slowly climb to the mid-60s with temperatures generally in the 80s. Thursday night into Friday looks like the next best chance for widespread precipitation as a broad trough once again pushes into the region with a series of fronts accompanying it. Nothing too noteworthy at the moment, but long range models do already have a 30 to 50% chance for rainfall exceeding a half inch. It would be nice to see trends go up with this one, so we might be able to get some beneficial rain before we head into Fall which is our usual dry period. As of now it looks like the fronts clear by Saturday morning with high pressure then crossing and making for a mostly dry weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Scattered SHRA are possible spreading west to east through the day. Some improvement to MVFR and VFR is possible by evening. TSRA is possible between 20z this afternoon to 03z this evening, mainly across New Hampshire terminals. Storms will be capable of locally strong winds and possible GR. IFR to LIFR is likely at most TAF sites in low CIGs and reduced visibility in fog overnight. Conditions then improve to MVFR and VFR from west to east during the day on Monday, with showers and storms possible Monday afternoon across the mountains towards LEB. Outlook: Monday night: VFR conditions expected. Tuesday-Thursday: Generally VFR conditions expected Thursday night-Friday: Generally MVFR conditions expected with widespread showers. IFR conditions possible in fog at night. && .MARINE... Conditions remain below SCA levels through Monday as a slow moving cold front approaches the waters and passes through on Monday. Reduced visibility in marine fog is likely through midday Monday. Generally sub-SCA conditions expected through the weekend as the Gulf of Maine remains on the periphery of Atlantic high pressure. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hargrove/Baron  340 FXUS61 KPHI 231825 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 225 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Aviation section for the 06Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A drier airmass spreads into the region this afternoon. 2. Fair weather is expected to return later Sunday and should persist into the middle of the upcoming week. 3. More unsettled to end the week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A drier airmass spreads into the region this afternoon. In the wake of a cold front that is passing offshore this afternoon, a drier airmass continues to spread into the region with surface dewpoints dropping from the upper 60s to around 70 to the low 60. Can't fully rule out a spot shower or two with broad upper level troughing overhead, particularly across northern NJ and the Poconos, but it will remain largely dry for the rest of the afternoon as high pressure builds in from the west. KEY MESSAGE 2...Fair weather is expected to return later Sunday and should persist into the middle of the upcoming week. More zonal flow with some subtle ridging moves in for the first half of the week. At the surface, high pressure will mainly be in control, resulting in dry and tranquil weather through Wednesday. Temperatures should be seasonable through this stretch. KEY MESSAGE 3...More unsettled to end the week. By Thursday and Friday, high pressure moves offshore with southerly return flow, helping bring dew points back into the low-70s. Broad upper level troughing will allow a surface low to make its way into the region, bringing our next chance for precipitation. Still a bit far out for specifics at this time, however. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of today...VFR. W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. High confidence. Tonight...VFR. LGT/VRB winds. High confidence. Monday...VFR. W to WSW winds around 10 kts gusts up to 15-20 kts. High confidence. Outlook... Monday through Thursday...VFR expected most of the time. && .MARINE... No marine headlines expected. Outlook... Monday night through Wednesday...No marine headlines expected. Fair weather expected. Rip Currents... Today...East to southeast 10 to 15 mph winds this morning, turn to the southwest after sunrise, then west with gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Breaking waves will be 1 to 2 feet with light southerly swells with a 6 to 8 second period. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches. On Monday, southwest winds will average 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon with breaking waves of 1 to 2 feet. There will be light southerly swells with a period of 6 to 8 seconds. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MJL/MPS AVIATION...MJL/MPS MARINE...MJL/MPS  436 FXUS64 KMRX 231826 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 226 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 225 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Dry conditions with more comfortable humidity levels through Tuesday. - Shower and thunderstorm chances will return Wednesday and especially Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Upper troughing will remain over the eastern US for the next few days as surface high pressure to our north and northwest drifts slowly east. This will provide us with a dry days and comfortably low relative humidity values each afternoon through Tuesday. Some patchy fog may develop in the late night hours tonight especially near rivers and lakes. By mid week the surface high will be off to our east and northeast, allowing low level flow to become more southwesterly and moisture to increase. Models suggest short wave energy moving across the area may have enough moisture to work with for a few showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, especially south and mountains. By Thursday into Thursday night, models show a stronger upper wave moving through the Great Lakes Region, dragging a weak cold front into our area. This will likely be the day with the highest coverage of showers and storms. We will have to wait until we get closer to see about the potential for any strong to severe storms, but right now the ensemble data joint probabilities for at least 500 J/kg of CAPE and > 30kt bulk shear are minimal at best and the chance for severe storms looks quite low. Lower confidence in the details further out, but models generally suggest high pressure will bring at least some drying behind the front for Friday into the weekend. The NBM still has some low chances for showers and storms for these days, especially over the mountains during the afternoon hours. High temperatures will generally not be far either side of normal for the entire forecast period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The primary aviation weather concern is the potential for fog development late tonight especially TRI. Right now the potential for significant fog looks too low to include as prevailing, but will include a few hours of tempo MVFR vsby in fog around sunrise at TRI. Otherwise, a VFR forecast for the period all sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 91 65 92 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 87 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 61 87 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 83 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...99  350 FXUS65 KSLC 231826 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1225 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1151 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026... - A Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe thunderstorms is outlooked this afternoon and evening across much of northern Utah. There is a 10% chance of wind gusts in excess of 70 mph with these thunderstorms. - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall across most of the region through early next week. - Thunderstorms will continue to impact the higher terrain and adjacent valleys through Wednesday. Another round of more widespread thunderstorms is increasing in likelihood for Friday into early next weekend. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1151 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026... Strong to severe convection will develop this afternoon and evening, with the highest probability of significant impacts (10% chance of wind gusts in excess of 70 mph) across northern Utah. A Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe thunderstorms has been issued for this area by the Storm Prediction Center. Looking at the set-up, this morning's 12Z sounding at KSLC already showed almost 1000 J/kg MUCAPE but with a fairly stout amount of convective inhibition. Latest guidance suggests this effective cap will erode by 20-21Z, allowing for robust convective development across northern Utah. Mean HREF SBCAPE indicates a broad area of values near to above around 1000-1500 J/kg across northern Utah coincident with deep layer shear around 25-30 kts. Weak surface convergence associated with a shortwave trough passing to the north may help to organize convection into a quasi-linear feature, though per typical in terrain, this is difficult to discern in model fields. The latest few HRRR runs do show a signature of an organized line of very strong outflow shifting across the west desert and into the Wasatch Front between 21Z and 01Z and then continuing to be quite strong into the Uinta County, WY area by 02-03Z. Peak wind gusts in these runs have increased to 55kts, but given the very steep lapse rates, relatively high instability for the Great Basin, modest deep layer shear and low LCLs, expect storms to be able to attain cold pool/shear balance. Saturday's convective outflow peak was 80 mph near Grassey on I-80...cant rule out a repeat somewhere along this area of outflow winds this afternoon and evening. For areas south of I-70, the heavy rain threat continues. While HREF peak 1 hour rates have decreased over Saturday's values, net available moisture has only decreased subtly. Expect any stronger thunderstorms, especially those tied to terrain features and/or training, to be capable of rainfall rates in excess of 0.50 inches per hour. Will need to monitor for flash flood threat across much of this area...especially for slot canyons, normally dry washes and recent burn scars. With the previously mentioned upper level trough passing to the east Monday, the best chance for strong outflow winds will shift to mainly the Utah/Idaho border region. Convection will become increasingly tied to the higher terrain and adjacent valleys through Wednesday...with only isolated convection expected Thursday as high pressure brings a drying trend to most locations. However...with the tropical eastern Pacific remaining quite active, at least a portion of ensemble members indicate the next trough approaching the Pacific Northwest will assist in shifting remnant tropical moisture into the Great Basin by Friday. This is something to watch moving forward. && .AVIATION, Issued 1151 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026... KSLC, Issued 1151 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026... A few thunderstorms will begin to develop over the Salt Lake Valley after 20z or so, resulting in low confidence in wind direction with any outflow winds. After 00z, a moreorganized cluster of thunderstorms is looking more likely to impact the terminal, bringing a chance for lightning, MVFR VIS due to moderate- heavy rain, and gusty outflow winds. Winds could even exceed 50kts out of the west (or become variable) as this line moves through. There is still some uncertainty with the timing of this cluster. Weaker showers will linger in the area until 07z or so, with breezy easterly winds slowly becoming lighter out of the southeast. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon across UT and southwest WY, with lower chances at KCDC and KSGU. Any showers will be capable of producing strong and erratic outflow winds, with the strongest winds across northern UT/southwest WY. Here, winds are more likely to briefly exceed 50kts or even 65kts near the strongest storms. A more organized cluster of thunderstorms will sweep through KTVY-KSLC-KOGD-KEVW between roughly 00-05z, which may produce very strong winds, MVFR VIS due to moderate- heavy rain, and lightning. There is still uncertainty with exact timing of this cluster. && .FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will remain across the Four-Corners region through the next week. As an upper level low crosses southern Canada into the northern Intermountain Region through Monday, sufficient forcing for thunderstorms will continue. As a result, strong to severe thunderstorms will impact much of northern Utah this afternoon and evening. The most significant threat will be strong outflow winds in excess of 60 mph, mainly north of I-70. For locations south of I-70, strong outflow winds up to 50 mph and very heavy rain will be the primary impacts from thunderstorms. Additional strong thunderstorms will develop Monday afternoon and evening, but the threat of outflows in excess of 50 mph will remain closer to the Utah/Idaho border. As high pressure builds north and east in the wake of the upper level low Tuesday, thunderstorms will become more confined to the higher terrain and adjacent valleys through Thursday. A net drying trend will continue, with most valleys see humidities fall to critical levels by midweek. Another round of thunderstorms may impact more of the state as early as Friday as another low pressure area impacts the Pacific Northwest and pulls moisture from the tropical Pacific northeastward into the Great Basin. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC... AVIATION... FIRE WEATHER...Kruse For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  679 FXUS61 KAKQ 231829 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 229 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Seasonably warm temperatures and comfortable humidity through Wednesday. Mainly dry outside of isolated sea- breeze showers today. 2) Unsettled conditions return mid to late week with daily chances for showers/storms. && .DISCUSSION... As of 230 PM EDT Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonably warm temperatures and comfortable humidity through Wednesday. Mainly dry outside of isolated sea- breeze showers today. Drier air is filtering into the area as a cold front moves offshore and high pressure fills in behind. Dewpoints have dropped into the low to mid 60s for much of the area with values in the 50s just to the west. Coastal areas are still a tad more humid with dewpoints still in the upper 60s, but that's an improvement compared to recent weeks. The drier air combined with mostly sunny skies and temps in the 80s all add up for a gorgeous late August day. If the forecasted seabreeze can get going, it may be enough to trigger a few isolated showers near the coast later this afternoon. These should be fairly light and brief given the drier airmass moving in. The pleasant conditions continue through the early week period with the sfc high remaining in place. KEY MESSAGE 2... Unsettled conditions return mid to late week with daily chances for showers/storms. Global models indicate that the sfc high slides offshore sometime Wed/Thurs and the flow aloft shifts back to the SW allowing for moisture return to the Mid-Atlantic. Highs will be near 90 Wed through the weekend and the humidity returns as well as daily chances for afternoon thunderstorms. As of now, Thurs looks like the day for most widespread storms when another front comes through. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Sunday... VFR conditions prevail for the 18z/23 TAF period. Could see an isolated shower near ORF/PHF later this afternoon if the sea- breeze manages to trigger something. Confidence is not high enough for even a prob30 at this point. Breezy WNW winds turn light and variable overnight. Outlook: Dry and prevailing VFR conditions expected through the early-mid week period. && .MARINE... As of 1225 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Generally benign marine conditions are expected through the weekend into early next week. - A brief SE surge is possible late Wednesday into early Wednesday night. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail this weekend through much of next week. A cold front continues to move east across the local waters this afternoon. However, elevated winds are not expected behind the front. Instead, NW winds of 5-10 kt early this afternoon become variable through tonight. Will note that a secondary cold front pushes through overnight, allowing for NW winds after ~2 AM. High pressure builds in Mon with light and variable winds continuing. Another weak cold front pushes across the local waters Mon night with winds becoming N 10-15 kt. Winds gradually diminish Tue as weak onshore flow develops (5-10 kt). The only potential for low-end SCA conditions appears to be late Wed into Wed night as SE winds increase to ~15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt behind a warm front. However, confidence is low at this time with the current model consensus showing winds remaining sub- SCA. Otherwise, waves mainly around 1 foot (occasionally 1-2 ft) and seas mainly around 2 feet (occasionally 2-3 ft) continue through the week. Given 1-2 ft nearshore waves, the rip current risk remains low through Wed. Will note that long period swell of 10-12 seconds continues through Wed which could result in some rip currents. However, given the relatively flat nearshore waves, current thinking is that the rip current risk will remain below moderate. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AC AVIATION...AC MARINE...RMM  615 FXUS63 KAPX 231828 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 228 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy winds and cool temperatures continue Monday with dry weather expected through the first half of the week. - Rain chances return late Wednesday/Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 227 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Pattern Synopsis: Impressive late-summer troughing will continue to churn over the Great Lakes tonight as it eventually lifts northeast early this week. The associated surface cyclone centered along the Ontario/Quebec border will weaken with time as the system becomes increasingly vertically stacked, cutting off favorable advections for support. Meanwhile, ridging sliding over the northern Great Plains will help build surface high pressure across the region through the first half of the week. Troughing eventually works back overhead during the second half of the week, likely bringing another system across the Great Lakes in the late Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. Forecast Details: Fall-feeling weather across the area today with breezy winds and cool temperatures will continue into Monday. While afternoon highs will be a few degrees warmer on Monday, readings are still expected to stay in the upper 60s to low 70s for most of the area -- around 5 degrees cooler than late-August averages. Northwest winds between 10- 20 mph with gusts to 25-35 mph will persist this afternoon and continue Monday as well, although slightly less windy conditions are anticipated tomorrow. Isolated to scattered light lake enhanced rain showers today are also expected to draw to a close for most areas later this evening and tonight as an increasingly hostile environment moves in as aforementioned high pressure builds. The exception will be across the far eastern U.P./Lake Huron shoreline tonight into early Monday morning as rain looks to linger on the backside of the system as it exits. Cannot completely rule out a few showers Monday, but the first half of the week is expected to be dry across northern Michigan. Our next chances for rain will return late Wednesday and Thursday as troughing digs back into the Great Lakes. Timing appears to be delayed some from previous forecast cycles, potentially keeping most of Wednesday dry. That said, steadier rain chances appear increasingly likely in the front end of this system late Wednesday/early Thursday with additional rain showers possible through late Thursday on the backside of the departing system. Otherwise, highs will warm back into the upper 70s and low 80s by Tuesday with temperatures set to cool back into the upper 60s and 70s during the second half of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 154 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Light RA will spread across KCIU, and KAPN this evening along with MVFR CIG development while KPLN, KTVC, and KMBL has cloud cover remaining primarily VFR. NNW winds are expected to remain gusty throughout the entirety of the TAF period, but will likely diminish Monday afternoon. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ016- 018-020-021-024>026-031-098-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for LHZ346. Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Monday for LHZ347-348. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to midnight EDT Monday night for LHZ347-348. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for LHZ349. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342- 344. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for LMZ345-346. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322. && $$ DISCUSSION...DJC AVIATION...SJC  557 FXUS63 KMPX 231827 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 127 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Next chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday, some chance for severe with marginal (1 of 5) risks. - Generally near normal temperatures over the next week, but slightly warmer than normal on Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 127 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Similar today to what we experienced yesterday with high pressure still present over the Upper Midwest. More diurnal cumulus as well as the atmosphere has heated, but lighter winds aloft have preventing a repeat of yesterday's gusty winds. Tonight will also be similar to last night with ample radiational cooling and some patchy fog in the cooler locations. The high moving out and a shift in the pattern will make this cooler area mainly across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. For western Minnesota, there has been a shift in the rain chances for tonight with most of the rain now most likely to stay south/west of the Minnesota River Valley and be kept within southwest Minnesota and areas farther to the southwest. Maybe parts of Martin County could see rain, but overall we look to miss out on this round. Monday and Tuesday will be driven by the shortwave moving across the Canadian Prairies with the fronts associated with it moving across the Upper Midwest. There will be a warming trend Monday and Tuesday as warm air advection associated with the circulation around this system occurs. This will come to an end as the cold frontal passage occurs, most likely in the later half of Tuesday. We could see some storms occur the later half of Monday into Tuesday morning associated more with the warm air advection and warm front with the support of a jet streak. Any severe chances here would be more in North Dakota and northwest Minnesota, but some chances extend further south into west central Minnesota as shown by the SPC marginal (1 of 5) risk. The better chance for some more widespread rain and storm chances will be the cold frontal passage later in the day on Tuesday. The main questions here will be familiar if you have been reading discussions over the past few days: timing of the frontal passage and moisture. If we had more moisture present this could easily be a fairly widespread event, but that still is a limiting factor in not just global ensemble solutions, but now CAMs as well. On the timing side it will be locations with frontal passage later in the day, as instability is able to build some, that could see convection come together. This should keep activity generally across eastern MN and western WI. With the questionable moisture rain will be very dependent on CI rather than the larger scale synoptic forcing of the front. So this will be the usual some winners and many losers with respect to the rain that we need. The rain deficit for the summer continues to grow with drought now across much of the broader region. Shear does not look great, so some doubt about higher end severe and sustained deep convection. This lines up with the SPC marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for areas along and east of I-35. Cooler air moves in on Wednesday behind the cold front, with temperatures still near normal. Rain chances related to some lift closer to the surface low will generally stay to our north across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Wednesday. Thursday into Friday morning higher pressure moves in with quiet weather and near normal temps. Late Friday into the next weekend is when our next system moves in. Differences between both the deterministic global models and their ensemble systems still have NBM PoPs spread out over this period. This should start to cluster more as it approaches to get a better idea of when this next system is most likely to occur. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Satellite captures another afternoon of blossoming Cu across eastern MN and western WI, so have increased to SCT-BKN coverage at MSP/STC/RNH/EAU. Winds are much less intense than yesterday afternoon. Showers and a few storms are forecast to develop across the eastern Dakotas overnight, however there is strong agreement that precipitation will remain west of AXN & RWF. VFR high clouds (10k+ feet) associated with the convection will overspread the region from west to east heading into Monday morning. Patchy ground fog between 11-13z appears possible at RNH/EAU and a TEMPO for brief visibility reductions may be needed in a forthcoming TAF issuance. Winds turn southeasterly by daybreak at all sites. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR, chc -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind SW 10-20 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts. THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NDC AVIATION...Strus  678 FXUS64 KAMA 231829 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 129 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 122 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Summer heat wave continues with impactful temperatures near or above 100 degrees through at least Monday. - Low to medium chance (20-40%) for scattered storms capable of gusty winds across the northwest and central combined Panhandle this afternoon into this evening. - Potential pattern change could provide slightly cooler temperatures and increased rain opportunities this week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 122 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The last full week of August begins with a continued focus on impactful heat, as well as afternoon-evening showers and storms. High temperatures are expected to stay roasting in the 99-109 range for a majority of the Panhandles today and tomorrow, thanks to the smothering influence of high pressure aloft. On top of the heat, breezier southwest winds of 10-20 mph will unfortunately leave elevated fire weather conditions for a majority of the forecast area today. Today's rain chances rely on a shortwave disturbance impinging upon the 597 dam H500 area of high pressure centered to our west over New Mexico. In the mid-levels, a swath of better 700mb theta-e is progged to be in place atop the northern Panhandles when the shortwave arrives out of eastern CO & NM, which should initiate scattered convection this afternoon and evening. Although highest coverage of storms is favored across the north (20-40% POPs), isolated to scattered pop-up storms could develop with daytime heating and subtle areas of sfc convergence across the south and central Panhandles as well (10-20% POPs). Per usual, relatively dry surface conditions would support strong downburst wind gusts as the primary concern with any stronger storms, which should also keep the heavy rain potential on the lower side. However, PWATs >1.00" are supportive for locally heavier downpours, but even high-end rainfall totals are greatly favored to remain below 0.5" today. Tomorrow we'll be looking at a similar setup as we keep an eye on convection moving out of CO & NM, which should mostly survive the trip to the northern and far western Panhandles (20-50% POPs). A boundary will be in play for additional storm development elsewhere, but could also keep temperatures below 105 for most of our northern counties. Ahead of the boundary, heat advisories and perhaps even an extreme heat warning may be needed, especially south of I-40. We will have to monitor short range model guidance and observational data to see just how far south the boundary ultimately progresses. Harrel && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 122 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Models continue to heavily suggest that more rain opportunities and slightly less hot temperatures are in store for the middle of the week, but don't get your hopes up for a widespread drought buster or true cool down. The region will still be solidly dominated by high pressure through Tuesday afternoon, with triple digit heat holding steady. This pattern is set to evolve though, as long range data shows troughing over the Great Lakes region sagging southward Tuesday night through late week, which would suppress high pressure further southwest over El Paso. This synoptic pattern would allow northwest flow aloft to provide better disturbances and weak fronts for the region, especially for the northern combined Panhandles. Ensembles mostly agree this would increase rain chances each evening-overnight Tue-Thu. Despite favorable deep layer moisture (PWATs 1.0-1.5"), most members suggest rainfall totals wouldn't beterribly impressive (mostly 0.50" or less any given night). Temperatures are progged to decline to the 90s Wed-Thu, but not for long as widespread triple digits are favored to resume through the end of the week. The system Tuesday night is projected to be the strongest of the week and have abundant moisture in tow. Precipitation probabilities continue to rise for the entire Panhandles (30-70%), with medium range models now hinting that an organized MCS could push over much of the region from northwest to southeast. Some discrepancies exist among models, but forecast 20-30kt 0-6km shear along with 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE generally spell low-end potential for severe wind gusts with any organized storms Tuesday night. Although the aforementioned trend of lighter rainfall is still the more likely outcome, models such as the RRFS are placing swaths of much heavier rainfall wherever this hypothetical line of storms ultimately passes. If you don't receive any rain Tue night, Wed night is the next best opportunity with only slightly lower probabilities of precipitation (20-60%). Harrel && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 122 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Isolated to scattered storms are expected once again during the afternoon and evening today, with highest probability for impacts being across our northern terminals (KDHT and KGUY). Outflow from these storms could produce strong wind gusts along with sudden wind shifts. Winds will be breezy out of the southwest before shifting to the west-northwest behind a boundary overnight. VFR sky conditions are favored to prevail at all sites. Harrel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ004-005-008>010- 012>015-017-018. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ019-020- 317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...38  705 FXUS61 KOKX 231829 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 229 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Continued chances for showers and thunderstorms into early evening afternoon ahead of a cold frontal passage. Some thunderstorms could have strong wind gusts with a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. 2) Chance of showers for both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Isolated thunderstorm possible for Monday. Severe weather impacts are not expected. 3) More chances of showers and thunderstorms for Thursday and Friday. Low confidence in potential impacts at this time. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Cold front and shortwave will provide lift this afternoon into early evening. This will combine with weak capping and sufficient MLCAPEs for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms until shortly after sundown. Strong to locally severe wind gusts would be the main impact. Looks like chances are limited to parts of NE NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley area, and into SW CT. Might need to extend chances for both showers and thunderstorms farther south, but will go with a dry forecast for the southern zones dry for now and monitor radar trends. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Cold pool aloft with longwave troughing will be over the region for both Monday and Tuesday. Both afternoons could see instability showers for parts of the Lower Hudson Valley and Southern Connecticut, and with slightly more CAPE and perhaps slightly steeper lapse rates, there could be an isolated rumble of thunder for Monday. NBM kept all areas dry both days, but have gone with slight chc PoPs for both afternoons. Severe wx not expected, but a strong gust could be possible on Monday. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Global models show a weak wave of low pressure approaching from our SW on Thursday and passing nearby or through the forecast area during Friday. Too early to have high confidence in potential impacts, but will need to keep an eye on trends for severe wx and flooding. At least isolated thunder would be around based on the track of storm, and at least minor flooding would be possible with an increase of PWATs. Time frame for greatest chance of impacts would be Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front moves through today, before high pressure builds from the west Monday. Widely scattered showers north and west of NYC terminals could lead to brief MVFR conditions, mainly for KHPN and KSWF. Can't entirely rule out at other terminals, but coverage and confidence is too low to include in TAF at this time. Chances decrease after 20Z or so. All terminals improve to VFR by late this afternoon. WSW or SW winds through the rest of today, speeds generally around 10 kt or less outside of thunderstorms. Gusts up to 20 kt are possible at some terminals. Winds lighten this evening, with similar flow expected on Monday. Gusts Monday afternoon likely a bit stronger than today, as high as 20 to 25 kt. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts this afternoon may be more occasional. A few gusts late Monday afternoon could approach 30 kt. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Monday PM: VFR. WSW gusts 20-25 kt. Tuesday: VFR. WSW gusts 15-20 kt. Wednesday: VFR. Light WSW/SW winds. Thursday-Friday: VFR Thu AM, becoming sub VFR with SHRA/TSRA. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Conditions on the marine zones are still expected to remain below small craft advisory thresholds during the marine forecast period. Pressure gradient overall remains relatively weak. Rip Currents: A moderate risk is expected for both today and Monday. The swell will be primarily from the SE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...DR MARINE...JC  848 FXUS62 KILM 231831 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 231 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Some adjustments to the key messages/discussions. Also updated aviation discussion for the 18Z TAF issuance and the marine section. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible especially eastern portions of the forecast area this afternoon, and again during Monday. 2) At or above normal temperatures are expected through the week with the chances for showers and thunderstorms increasing mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible especially eastern portions of the forecast area this afternoon, and again during Monday. Water vapor imagery shows a channeled plume of moisture offshore with the westward extent of this moisture along coastal areas. In addition, a weak front just west of the forecast area is projected to drift toward the coast through tonight and Monday. The higher moisture along the coast along with the sea breeze, slowly approaching front and decent instability will result in a Marginal Risk for severe storms this afternoon, and again tomorrow. The best chances will be near the coastal areas and adjacent inland areas given the PWAT distribution. KEY MESSAGE 2...At or above normal temperatures are expected through the week with the chances for showers and thunderstorms increasing mid to late week. The core of mid/upper ridging will remain across TX/NM/AZ through the week allowing for more normal temperatures across the forecast area. The H5 trough currently in place across the eastern U.S. will gradually become more zonal by mid-week followed by additional weak troughing aloft toward the end of the week. The old front that will linger across the area through the first part of the week is expected to waffle back to the north by the end of week. A weak inland trough along with better support aloft should result in better rainfall chances as the week progresses. In addition, PWATs are expected to surge above 2 inches toward the end of the week. If current trends continue then all signs point to higher rainfall chances Friday into Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Other than some TEMPO MVFR CIGs with the diurnal cumulus VFR conditions will prevail. The prospects for any widespread stratus/fog look less promising tonight compared to last night. In the end still could see some MVFR restrictions at KFLO/KLBT overnight into early Monday morning. Otherwise, a weak front will move into the vicinity and stall. The front and seabreeze will result in some convection Monday, but primarily after the current TAF window. Extended Forecast...Monday afternoon through Friday: Mainly VFR with early morning fog and stratus possible each morning. Widely scattered SHRA/TSRA may create brief restrictions Monday afternoon, especially at the coastal terminals. The areal coverage of storms is projected to increase at all terminals from the mid to latter parts of the week. This could lead to restrictions from time to time in/near any of the rounds of convection that develop. && .MARINE... Tonight through Friday...A weak front will move into the coastal plains later today/tonight with S-SWly flow prevailing across the adjacent waters. This boundary may become nearly stationary along the coast the first part of the week with light/variable conditions near the front and generally light S-SWly to its east and south. Any convection has the potential to create locally higher wind/wave conditions. The old boundary will likely drift back to the north by mid-week with an increase in S-SWly flow that will persist through Friday. Overall, seas will be in the 2-4 ft range offshore, and 1-3 across the coastal waters. However, as mentioned above, locally enhanced winds/seas are expected at times as a result of convection. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...SRP KEY MESSAGES...SRP DISCUSSION...SRP AVIATION...SRP MARINE...SRP  727 FXUS62 KMLB 231830 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 230 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms are forecast this afternoon and evening, highest near and north of the I-4 corridor. Storm hazards include frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 55 mph, and quick rainfall accumulations of 1-3" locally. - Below normal rain and storm chances start off the work-week as high pressure lifts northward across the Florida peninsula, with a return of near normal rain and storm chances from Wednesday onward as moisture increases. - Near to slightly above normal temperatures persist this week, but humidity will still produce peak heat indices of 100F and greater. Adequate hydration and breaks in the shade or A/C will be important for those spending extended periods of time outdoors! && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Current-Tonight...Temperatures max out in the L90s (few M90s) this afternoon with peak heat indices continuing above 100F, but remaining below Heat Advisory criteria. Residents and visitors are strongly encouraged to practice heat safety to avoid developing heat illness. Mid-level troughing across central FL will aid SCT-NMRS (40- 60%) diurnal shower/lightning storm development this afternoon and evening. Highest chances across the I-4 corridor where moisture is deepest. WRLY flow will only permit ECSB development from near the Cape southward and this feature may enhance pulse strong storms across the Space & Treasure coasts later. Drier air aloft may support local strong wind gusts in a few storms with other storm impacts remaining frequent lightning strikes, and torrential downpours leading to quick 1-3" rainfall totals for some. Minor/nuisance flooding possible locally. Storm motion is light westerly but could see occasional erratic storm movement from stronger boundary collisions. Activity will wind down through the mid-late evening across land with cloud-cover thinning overnight. Min temperatures fall into the M70s. Mon-Tue...Upper-level troughing across the eastern CONUS slowly lifts north/east, though weak troughing in the mid-levels will still provide daily enhancement to diurnal (albeit below normal) shower and lightning storm chances across ECFL. At the surface, weak surface ridging lifts north back into the central FL peninsula as the pgrad remains fairly weak. This will result in light southerly flow, allowing for earlier development and further inland movement of the ECSB than recent days. Precip chances will range b/n 20-40% on Mon and 30-50% Tue. Storm hazards continue to be frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts 45-55 mph locally, and heavy downpours. Weak storm steering flow will lead to slow and erratic storm motion, which may increase the potential for minor, localized flooding. Some storm activity may still push offshore through the late evening hours with mostly dry conditions across land overnight. Additional showers/storms possible overnight across the local Atlantic waters. Temperatures are forecast to remain slightly above normal each afternoon, with highs near and north of the I-4 corridor reaching the M90s and L90s most everywhere else. Peak heat indices are forecast to range between 102F to 107F, generally just below Heat Advisory criteria. Those spending extended periods of time outdoors will need to remain adequately hydrated and take breaks in the shade or A/C to prevent heat-related illness. Low temps continue in the M70s. Wed-Sun...Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Modified...Broad mid- level ridging across the Atlantic will extend towards and gradually across the Florida peninsula from the middle of this week into the weekend. The surface ridge axis is forecast to stay draped across the Florida peninsula, with light southerly winds prevailing through Fri, becoming more southeasterly next weekend as the ridge axis lifts slightly northward. Daily development of the east coast sea breeze is anticipated, and when combined with the moist air mass in place, will support a near normal/slightly above normal (40-70%) diurnal pattern of shower and storm development each day. Primary storm impacts remain lightning strikes, gusty winds, and heavy downpours leading to occasional minor/nuisance flooding. General model trends favor activity diminishing into the late evening and overnight hours. Temperatures will remain near normal in the L90s during the afternoon hours, falling into the M70s during the overnight hours. Peak heat indices are anticipated to remain below advisory criteria but will still exceed 100F, so heat safety will continue to be important through the remainder of the week. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Previous Marine Discussion Modified...Generally favorable boating conditions persist across the local waters through this week. The Atlantic surface high lifts north across the waters starting Mon, causing the southwesterly winds to become more southerly. Light offshore winds 5 to 10 knots during the overnight and morning hours increase to 10 to 15 knots and shift to out of the southeast during the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops each day. Seas remain generally between 1 to 3 ft, with the highest seas focused across the offshore waters. Isolated to scattered shower and lightning storm development will be forecast, with activity generally moving offshore from the peninsula each afternoon into the evening hours. Continued shower/storm development overnight across the Gulf Stream waters will be possible. Storm hazards will include frequent cloud-to-water lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 30 kts, heavy downpours, and locally higher seas. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 134 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ISO-SCT TS have developed INVOF the northern ECFL terminals, and SCT-NUM TS in WCFL are working eastward on the Gulf breeze. The ECSB remain pinned off the coast by offshore (WSW-SW) flow 5-10 kts, and is forecast to make only a brief inland push from KMLB- KSUA (if at all) before outflow and the WCSB overruns the coast after around 20Z. Additional TS are expected on the collision before moving offshore, though some TS may become slow/erratic/ stationary and produce longer periods of impacts. Adjusted TS and TEMPO timing earlier in AMDs and the 18Z package across the board at northern terminals. +TSRA capable of locally high gusts +35 kts again possible. Most TS/SH forecast to dissipate or move offshore after 23Z, but some activity may linger as late as 04Z. Quiet VFR overnight once convection clears. Winds become light southerly/VRB overnight and forecast to continue Monday, allowing the ECSB to develop and move inland at a more typical rate, shifting winds SSE-SE around 10 kts. Lower coverage of afternoon TS/SH forecast Monday, but another early start remains possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 93 75 92 / 10 20 10 50 MCO 76 95 76 95 / 10 30 10 40 MLB 76 93 77 93 / 20 20 10 40 VRB 75 93 75 92 / 20 20 10 30 LEE 75 93 76 92 / 0 20 10 40 SFB 75 94 75 93 / 10 30 10 40 ORL 76 94 77 94 / 10 30 10 40 FPR 75 93 75 92 / 20 20 10 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sedlock AVIATION...Haley  703 FXUS63 KMQT 231829 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 229 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect today for the shorelines of Marquette and Alger Counties due to strong winds and high waves creating dangerous rip currents and swimming conditions. - Spotty light lake effect rain showers/sprinkles are possible over the east half through this evening. - The next chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms arrives in the west Tuesday PM, spreading east overnight and ending for most late Wednesday. - Seasonable temperatures are expected through the week with the exception of slightly below normal temperatures today and tonight. Some patchy frost is possible in the typical cold spots and elevated surfaces in the interior west tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Late morning GOES-East Day Cloud Phase RGB imagery and KMQT radar reflectivity show a few bands of isolated to scattered light rain showers this morning over mainly the central UP with bands of clouds across the rest of the UP. Temperatures at 850mb of around 5 C are above a Lake Superior that ranges from 12 C to 20 C, which ranges from "good enough for lake effect clouds" to "good enough for lake effect showers", reflecting the variable effects of lake effect that is ongoing this morning. Impacts will be low to none as the showers are not particularly intense, but it may keep temperatures from breaking out of the 60s today for all except for the south-central and Isle Royale which will see less clouds today. The brisk northwesterly flow today will continue, and the wind-driven waves of 5-7 ft east of Marquette from 1-5 miles out from the shores will drive a high risk of dangerous swim conditions including rip currents. RAP analysis shows a 1004mb low pressure over the Ontario/Quebec line with broad 1018-1020mb high pressure stretching from far northwestern Ontario to Missouri. The low is vertically stacked with deep 500mb troughing extending over much of eastern North America, opposed by a 500mb ridge spanning from the Four Corners region to the Canadian Prairie. While the trough will not be moving much tonight, the ridge axis will pivot from the Canadian Prairie towards the Manitoba/Ontario line, which will advance the high pressure towards the UP and clear out skies for most after 00Z. As the high brings relaxing winds, efficient radiational cooling will allow temperatures to plummet in the interior west tonight, with a few interior western locations reaching the mid 30s (wouldn't be surprised if Alberta Ford Center or other traditional cold spots dipped to freezing). This will result in some patches of frost (especially on elevated surfaces or low spots where cold air pools), however, with the prior August heat still hanging on in the soil temperatures, widespread frost is not forecast, so an advisory will not be sent this shift. However, some caution should still be taken for those in the interior west with sensitive vegetation. Also, with temperatures falling overnight, a few patches of fog cannot be ruled out in areas sheltered from the wind in the west (around 20% chance). As high pressure establishes itself over the region, dry weather and seasonable temperatures are expected Monday into Tuesday. Meanwhile, a 500mb trough currently over eastern Washington and southeast British Columbia will complete its journey around the northern periphery of the western CONUS ridge, arriving around the Northwest Angle Tuesday afternoon. This will drive significant PVA and also support a surface low of 1005-1010mb arriving near western Lake Superior by 00Z Wednesday. Moisture advects into the region ahead of the cold front and PWATs climb to 1-1.25 inches. Directionalwind shear will certainly be present as southerly to southwesterly low level flow is contrasted with the westerly to northwesterly flow aloft, though speed shear is somewhat lacking as LREF 500mb winds by 00Z Wednesday around the interior west are only around 25 kt. Instability is likely going to be sufficient for thunderstorms as Euro ensemble MUCAPE is 40-60% likely to exceed 750 J/kg for the far western UP by 00Z Wed. Instability probabilities fall off overnight, but by 18Z Wed, mean MUCAPE values for the east half are widespread over 1000 J/kg, though uncertainty in the available forcing by Wednesday afternoon to realize such an uncertain airmass (and paltry shear profiles to organize buoyant updrafts) casts doubt on the severe weather potential, though unorganized thunderstorms with plenty of available moisture can still bring notable rainfall, with the LREF probability of 0.5+ inches of rain by 06Z Thursday widespread 40-70%. With 850mb temperatures around 60% likely to fall to around 8 C, some lingering light lake effect showers (or at least, cloud cover) is possible for Thursday into Friday. Models diverge on solutions beyond then as different members of different ensemble suites handle the persistent Four Corners ridge and troughs over Hudson Bay and southwestern Canada differently, but at least some period of ridging seems reasonable to bring dry weather to the UP to kick off the weekend before the next ridge-riding shortwave arrives. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 207 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are anticipated at all three sites for the period, with the exception of visibility restrictions at IWD prior to dawn and MVFR ceilings at SAW this afternoon due to to lake enhanced clouds and showers. At KIWD, LAMP LIFR ceilings and visibility probabilities run around 15% for the pre-dawn period; given very low winds and a moist atmosphere, included BR in TEMPO group for this site. At KCMX, gusty northerlies lay down a bit overnight. At KSAW, expecting ceilings to bounce between VFR and MVFR this afternoon as showers are generated from onshore northerly flow; these should clear out as diurnal heating increases throughout the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Northwest wind gusts continue especially over the east half of Lake Superior at 25-30 kt into tonight, with European ensemble probabilities of gales at 15 percent or less. Wind gusts linger around 20-25 kt early Monday before falling below 20 kt Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon with high pressure settling over the region. Southerly to southeasterly wind gusts of around 25 kt pick up Tuesday night ahead of an approaching cold front, with winds turning northwesterly behind the front by Thursday morning, including a few gale force gusts to 35 kt possible (20-40% chance particularly south of Stannard Rock). Winds quickly relax below 20 kt Thursday night into Friday as uncertainty in the forecast grows into the weekend. Along the midweek cold front will be 20-40% chances of thunderstorms. Ongoing waves of 4-7 ft fall below 3 ft Monday afternoon before increasing again to 4-7 ft in the southeast part of the lake Thursday morning through Thursday night. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ005-006. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...GS AVIATION...RE MARINE...GS  160 FXUS62 KFFC 231833 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 233 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry for North Georgia and low chances for thunderstorms (15-20%) across parts of Central Georgia through Tuesday. - Daily rain chances will be on the upswing by mid to late week as a frontal boundary approaches. - Seasonal temperatures are largely expected through the week ahead. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 232 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Calm weather is expected through the short term. Dry conditions behind a cold front will limit our thunderstorm chances to minimal, and contained to the southern parts of the CWA. Winds will be out of the NW at 5 to 10 mph with gusts as high as 15 mph. Drier weather is expected to expand further into the CWA tomorrow with RH values in the afternoon dropping down into the 35% range, making conditions feel downright lovely for this time of year. Light and variable winds are expected overnight before picking up to 5 to 10 mph again under mostly clear skies. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday morning through next Saturday) Issued at 232 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 As the long term period begins, the axis of a longwave trough will be centered over the Atlantic coast, which will keep much of Georgia underneath northwesterly upper level flow. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will be sliding across the Midwest. The combination of these factors will keep weather conditions dry and benign across the majority of the forecast area for one more day on Tuesday. Low temperatures will start the morning in the low to mid 60s across north Georgia (and even some upper 50s in the highest elevations) and in the upper 60s and low 70s in central Georgia. Highs will climb into the low 90s in north Georgia and mid 90s in central Georgia on Tuesday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in portions of south-central Georgia during the peak heating hours, while dry air will keep chances minimal across the remainder of the forecast area. Atmospheric moisture will gradually over during the middle part of the week, and weak disturbances traversing the northwesterly flow will provide opportunity for thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon and evening. On Thursday, another trough moving across the Great Lakes will advance a front towards far north Georgia. The front will gradually work its way southeast through the forecast area on Thursday into Friday. Forcing ahead of the front and increase moisture will lead to scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the later part of the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 150 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 CU field expected this afternoon but conditions will remain VFR. Winds will be NW at 5 to 10kts potentially gusting to 15kts. Skies should clear overnight and winds will become light and variable. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High on all elements. Vaughn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 66 91 65 92 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 70 91 68 93 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 59 84 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 64 91 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 73 94 71 94 / 0 10 10 0 Gainesville 65 89 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 72 94 70 94 / 10 10 10 10 Rome 64 91 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 68 92 66 93 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 73 96 72 95 / 10 10 10 50 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vaughn LONG TERM....King AVIATION...Vaughn  114 FXUS63 KLMK 231832 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 232 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry and pleasant conditions are expected to continue through Tuesday. * Warmer temperatures (mid to upper 80s) and chances for showers and storms return by mid week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 232 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Calm winds and clear skies will allow for the potential of fog development tonight. Patchy fog and areas of valley fog are expected through the early morning hours, especially north and west of I64. Surface high pressure will remain over the Ohio Valley with an upper level trough to the NE and a ridge to the west. Northwesterly flow will keep high temperatures in the mid 80s, and lows in the upper 50s low 60s through Tuesday afternoon. Dewpoints will remain in the mid to upper 50s allowing for a very pleasant and comfortable start to the work week. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 232 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 As the surface high pressure moves off to the east, an upper level trough and low pressure system will move into the Great Lakes region. A shortwave disturbance and frontal boundary will bring rain chances back into the forecast for the later half of the week. By Wednesday afternoon/evening, southwesterly flow will return and bring moisture back into the region. PWAT values are expected to be back above 1" for the remainder of the week. A weak upper level disturbance will move through the region Wednesday into Thursday bringing scattered showers and storms. At this time, no severe threats are expected. Thursday evening, a cold front will begin to push into the Ohio Valley allowing for another round of rain and possible storms. Guidance is currently showing ample instability for storm development, however effective bulk shear is weak. Therefore, any storms that do form could have the potential to become strong but severe threats are not currently expected. Post frontal boundary, daytime temperatures are expected to remain around normal in the mid to upper 80s. A drier airmass will also likely move in for a pleasant day on Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions and light NW winds generally 5-10 kt are expected to continue this afternoon and evening. Winds should become light and variable overnight, with VFR conditions likely at most terminals. There is a chance for MVFR or lower visibilities due to patchy fog before sunrise Monday, mainly at HNB, though confidence in this is low given drier air mixing down this afternoon. Light winds and VFR conditions are expected again during the day on Monday. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CAL LONG TERM...CAL AVIATION...CSG  202 FXUS64 KHGX 231833 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 133 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory remains in effect. - Cannot rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm at times into midweek, but chances will be quite low for most of the area. - Temperatures slightly ease late in the week along with the potential for some rain chances returning to the forecast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Temperatures are currently running 2-5 degrees lower than yesterday at this time thanks to the debris cloudiness passing overhead. Satellite pix show the sun re-emerging so we still have plenty of time to get some of those readings back close to 100F. Like previous days, cannot rule out an isolated storm or two late in the day/evening. Consider yourself lucky if one passes overhead as most of us will remain dry. If you've enjoyed the wx for the past several days, you're in for a treat because more of the same is anticipated thru at least midweek. Will maintain the ongoing Heat Advisories in place. Later in the week (Thursday and beyond), the western mid-upper ridge moves a bit further to the west which will allow for falling heights locally and a gradual easing of the 100F+ temps. It appears that llvl ridging in the Gulf will also lose some of its grip. A more prevalent SSE flow emerges (versus the current SW) and opens up a better trajectory for some higher PW Gulf air to flow inland. Combination of this, less potent subsidence aloft, and some east-to-west mid level impulses should allow for the mention of some POPs to return to the fcst. Suspect we'll see rain chances trend higher than we currently have in our fcst assuming the wetter 12z deterministic model suites show some consistency as time marches on. 47 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions prevail alongside southwesterly winds around 5-10 kt. Winds will transition to southeasterly later this afternoon. High- resolution model guidance depicts isolated convection developing around 21Z in portions of the Piney Woods and drifting southwestward. As of right now, a PROB30 has been included only at UTS, but CXO may also need SH/TS mentions should a similar setup to Saturday afternoon unfold. Confidence remains rather low on any convective development, but if anything manages to develop then UTS/CXO would be the most likely to see convective impacts. Winds transition back to light and southwesterly overnight. As seen over the past few mornings, a brief period of isolated low ceilings will be possible around and shortly after sunrise. Areawide VFR conditions will return by 15Z/Monday. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Southwest to west winds late at night and in the mornings will become south 10 to 15 knots during the day as the seabreeze kicks in. Seas will be 1 to 3 feet. A more prevailing southeast to southeast flow should set back up late in the week and weekend along with the return of some isolated to scattered rain chances. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 78 103 77 102 / 20 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 80 101 79 101 / 20 10 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 83 93 84 92 / 10 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...47 AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...47  249 FXUS66 KSTO 231833 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1133 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry with seasonable high temperatures through the next week. - Slight but uncertain chance for isolated thunderstorms on Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Some high clouds visible moving across interior NorCal today on GOES West Satellite imagery. Still, conditions remain dry with seasonable temperatures. Valley highs primarily in the 90s today, with 80s to 90s at higher elevations. Breezy onshore conditions, though less windy today than the last few days. The remainder of the week, upper level low pressure to the northwest and high pressure to the east will continue the pattern of periodically breezy onshore winds, with seasonable high temperatures and cooler overnight lows. Early Monday morning there is a less than 5% chance for an isolated thunderstorm to develop over the western portion of the southern Sacramento Valley, though there is very little confidence in this occuring. Monday afternoon and evening, there is up to a 10% chance for isolated thunderstorms along and east of the Sierra crest, including near the Burney Basin. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions continue through the TAF period, with FEW to SCT clouds moving through the Sacramento sites this afternoon/evening. Overnight another cloud deck shifts through Interior Northern California bringing SCT clouds, with VFR ceilings. Winds during the TAF period will be breezy at times near the Delta, but overall around 5-10kts elsewhere. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$  350 FXUS62 KMFL 231836 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 236 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 223 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Smoke from wildfires in the area could produce lower visibilities and unhealthy air quality over portions of the Everglades and western suburbs. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop over the interior and east coast metro areas through the early evening hours. An isolated marginally severe storm or two is possible. && .UPDATE... Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across the interior and east coast metro areas along sea breeze boundary collisions as well as additional thunderstorm outflow boundary collisions through early this evening. The atmospheric column remains unstable across the interior and east coast as SB CAPE values range from 4500-5000 J/kg across these areas this afternoon. With DCAPE values ranging between 1000 and 1200 J/kg, this will be supportive of the stronger thunderstorms having the potential to produce wind gusts in excess of 50 mph this afternoon into early this evening. As the evening progresses and diurnal heating begins to wane, shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually diminish across most areas during this time frame. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower 70s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the upper 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The deep trough draped across the eastern US with low pressure centered over the Great Lakes will remain the primary synoptic feature of interest in the short term. While the axis of this trough will not reach South Florida, an upper level shortwave at the base of the trough could provide some extra forcing for ascent as it advects across the area Sunday night into Monday. However, another Saharan Air Layer (SAL) looks to advect into the area as well during this same time frame. The thickness of this SAL is expected to be much less than the previous one, but it will still impact the weather outlook through Monday. In terms of today's setup, a rinse and repeat situation from yesterday appears to be in store as low level flow remains mostly southerly with perhaps a slight southwesterly component. This will keep the focus of convection towards inland South Florida (at least to start) this afternoon before outflow boundaries interact with the sea breezes and produce some storms closer to the coastal metro areas. An isolated severe thunderstorm or two once again cannot be ruled out in the form of downburst winds that are most likely to occur with a storm formed by converging boundaries or cell mergers. Heading into Sunday night and Monday, the intrusion of the drier SAL air mass will result in both mid-level dry air presence and low- level profiles resembling an inverted-V near the surface. This results in steepened low level lapse rates and the potential for a couple of strong to severe storms to develop if an updraft or two can bust through the cap created by the dust layer. With that said, overall convective coverage is expected to be lower than without the dust since the dry air provides some inhibition to convection. The storms that do form though will have chances to become strong to severe. PWATs will still be over 1.5", so some scattered showers and storms are still likely regardless but just not as widespread as days without a SAL presence. High temperatures for today and tomorrow will continue to be in the low to mid 90s. Maximum heat index values will primarily be in the 100-105F range, but many areas will experience brief periods where indices could be up to the 105-110F range. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 For the middle to end of this coming week, surface and low level high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will begin to expand back over the region and cause winds to shift back to an easterly or east-southeast direction. This easterly to east- southeast regime will produce a pattern that is common in the summertime across South Florida with convection being driven by the sea breeze circulations and being steered towards the Gulf coast areas. At the same time, the weak SAL will dissipate by mid-week and allow for the deeper moisture to be utilized for widespread shower and thunderstorm development. Highest rain chances (60-80%) each day will be across Southwest Florida and this will last through the end of the long term period. There will be a chance for an upper level shortwave to develop and advect across the region late in the week, which could cause convection to become widespread across the entire South Florida forecast area. However, uncertainty remains high in regards to this feature. High temperatures are projected to remain in the low to mid 90s each day. Overnight lows range from the low 70s across the interior and lake regions to the upper 70s and low 80s along the coastal metros. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 126 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Winds will continue to slowly become SE across the east coast terminals and they will remain around 10 kts through the afternoon hours. Scattered showers and storms will develop through the afternoon and early evening hours across the interior as well as the east coast. Periods of MVFR or IFR will be possible near storms that develop over the east coast terminals along with gusty and erratic winds. At KAPF, WSW winds will remain near 10 kts this afternoon as a Gulf breeze pushes inland. && .MARINE... Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Light to gentle west-southwest winds are expected across the Gulf waters today and into this coming week with southeasterly winds across the Atlantic. Seas will remain at 1-2 feet or less each day across all of the local waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late each day and in the late night hours over the waters, which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Wildfire activity is being monitored across the region with the latest fire developing near Krome ave and the Miami-Dade/Broward county line. Smoke from this fire is likely to mostly disperse northwards but variable winds can result in smoke dispersing multiple ways. The main impact to watch for is lowered visibilities, particularly in the late night hours as nocturnal inversions form and can trap smoke near the surface, resulting in smog. Other than ongoing activity and the drought across the region assisting in fire risk, weather conditions are generally not suitable for increasing fire development as relative humidity values remain 50-60% at minimum and winds remain on the lighter side. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 93 79 93 / 20 20 20 30 West Kendall 77 92 76 93 / 20 20 20 40 Opa-Locka 80 93 79 93 / 20 20 10 30 Homestead 78 92 78 92 / 20 20 20 30 Fort Lauderdale 79 92 79 92 / 20 10 10 30 N Ft Lauderdale 80 93 80 93 / 20 20 10 30 Pembroke Pines 80 92 79 92 / 20 20 10 30 West Palm Beach 78 94 78 93 / 10 20 10 30 Boca Raton 79 91 79 91 / 20 10 10 30 Naples 77 92 77 93 / 10 20 20 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC  341 FXUS63 KLOT 231836 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 136 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The next chance of showers and thunderstorms is with a cold front moving across the area midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 135 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The weather pattern across the country for the next week looks to be dominated by a western ridge with troughing over the Great Lakes and Northeast. This leaves our area in northwest flow with pleasant temperatures and generally below average precipitation. Surface high pressure will settle into middle Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes tonight through Monday night. This will result in light/calm winds, low dewpoints, and seasonable temperatures. Once diurnal cumulus dissipates this evening, skies should be clear tonight. The clear skies, low dewpoints, and calm winds should allow for strong radiational cooling. Low temperatures tonight should drop into the 50s, coolest away from the urban heat island where some of the typically colder spots could even dip into the upper 40s. While the boundary layer is dry, the nearly ideal radiational cooling set- up could allow for some areas of ground fog late tonight into early Monday morning, especially the typically fog favored low lying and cold air drainage areas. Monday should be a near carbon copy of today, but with less wind. In fact, not much change in the weather is expected through Tuesday. Later Tuesday into Tuesday night the longwave trough over the Great Lakes is expected to scoot off to the east, but fast on its heels looks to be another shortwave which will help reestablish the long wave trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast. A cold front associated with that next shortwave trough is progged to move across the area sometime Wednesday or Wednesday night. A frontal boundary stalled out across the Gulf States should limit moisture return in advance of this cold front. Despite somewhat marginal moisture return, fairly strong forcing and cooling temps aloft with the approaching upper trough could support some showers/storms when the front moves across the region sometime around Wednesday timeframe. Frontal timing could also play a role in coverage of showers and storms, if the front were to move through at a less diurnally favorable time, that would result in lower storm chances and rainfall amounts. In the wake of the front, another period of sunshine and seasonable temperatures with comfortable humidity looks to be on tap Thursday into Friday. There are some indications the long wave pattern across the CONUS could turn more zonal and potentially lead to more rain chances into next weekend, but that is still far out and confidence not terribly high. - Izzi && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Key messages for the 18Z TAF period: * A lake breeze will bring light and variable winds to MDW and GYY this evening and overnight * Another lake breeze will turn NW winds to E in Chicago Monday afternoon NE winds around 10 to 12 kt will remain through the afternoon with occasional gusts as high as 20 kt. Winds will go light for this evening. A lake breeze is expected to pass through MDW and GYY this evening. While magnitude will be light, direction will vary through the night and into early Monday. Elsewhere, NW is favored tonight. Expect NW Monday morning going ENE at Chicago sites in the mid-late afternoon with the passage of another lake breeze. Expect VFR throughout the period. Doom && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for INZ002. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  334 FXUS65 KBYZ 231836 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 1236 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening. A few storms could be strong to severe, with strong wind gusts 55-65 mph the main threat. Localized heavy rainfall is also possible. - Drier with seasonal temps next week with just an occasional chance of precipitation. && .DISCUSSION... Through Saturday... A filling upper low tracking through the Pac NW will continue to slide east along the US Canada border, working to break down the upper ridge over the region today into Monday. An associated cold front will sweep through the area late this afternoon and evening. Areas generally west of Billings could see a period of elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon as pre-frontal conditions bring westerly wind gusts of 15-30 mph, with humidity down near 20 percent. Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to form out ahead of and with the front, starting over the west early this afternoon, spreading east into the evening hours. CAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, 30-40kts of 0-6KM shear, and steep lapse rates should allow a few strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Risk Level 2 of 5 for severe storms over central and western areas, with a marginal risk elsewhere. The main threat with these storms is the potential for wind gusts in excess of 70 mph and hail greater than 1 inch. Brief heavy rain is also possible with thunderstorms. Behind the front, cooler and drier conditions settle into the area for Monday, with temperatures down into the 80s for most locations. Breezy northwest winds of 15-30 mph near the Dakotas border and afternoon humidity down into the upper teens and 20s percent will bring locally elevated fire weather concerns. Upper level ridging then builds in by Tuesday, but weak energy and slightly above normal moisture (PWATs around 110-140% of normal) will allow for periodic chances (10-40% chance) for showers and thunderstorms to continue through the end of the work week. Highs are forecast to range from the middle to upper 80s Monday and Tuesday. A gradual warming trend is then forecast into the second half of the week with temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. STP .AVIATION... 18z Discussion... Winds will remain gusty (up to 25 kts) out of the west for most of the region (including KBIL) through 06z today. The main concern is the development of TS around 20z over the mountains near KLVM and then they push east. TEMPO lines were included in KBIL/KLVM for wind gusts with these storms up to 50 kts, although it is not out of the question to see a gust as high as 60 kts with the strongest storm today. KSHR and SE Montana have less of a likelihood of seeing these storms or impactful winds so they have PROB30 lines for these storms. That is only due to the lower confidence / coverage of the storms as they progress eastwards, if a storm does impact any terminal gusts over 40 kts are possible. Overnight tonight there could be some patchy FG but there is low confidence in this. Even if it were to occur, it will be very localized in the fog prone areas. Mountains will be partially obscured through 08z. VFR conditions are expected outside of convection. Slant range visibility may be see minor impacts due to smoke. WMR && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 062/088 060/085 061/090 063/093 064/090 062/089 060/083 30/K 00/U 00/B 11/B 41/B 21/U 21/U LVM 049/086 049/084 051/089 052/090 052/088 050/086 047/081 20/K 02/T 22/T 32/T 41/U 21/U 31/U HDN 059/088 055/087 056/092 060/095 061/091 059/091 056/085 30/U 00/B 00/U 11/B 21/B 21/U 21/B MLS 063/086 058/085 056/087 061/093 064/091 061/089 058/084 20/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 21/B 21/B 21/B 4BQ 064/087 059/086 057/088 062/092 064/091 062/090 060/086 20/U 00/B 00/U 11/B 21/B 21/B 11/U BHK 060/088 053/085 050/086 053/090 057/091 056/089 054/085 20/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 32/T 33/T 32/T SHR 057/087 054/084 052/088 055/091 057/089 055/088 054/084 30/U 02/T 11/B 11/B 11/B 21/B 11/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings  328 FXUS65 KTFX 231836 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1236 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon capable of strong wind gusts up to 80 mph and marginally large hail, mainly east of I-15 ahead of a cold front. - Gusty winds behind a cold front this afternoon, with elevated fire weather conditions. - Generally near or above average temperatures this week with a few days of scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: Potent upper level troughing moving across the region today will bring an array of impacts, including strong to severe thunderstorms and elevated fire weather conditions. A cold front will be moving through today, which will delineate the transition between a more thunderstorm focused risk and fire weather risk. Ahead of the cold front ample moisture looks to coincide with daytime heating and forcing from the passing upper level disturbance to result in scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly east of I- 15. Deep mixing and shear on the order of 30-40kts will support the risk for large hail with initial storms before the risk transitions to be more wind focused. Latest mesoanalysis features DCAPE in excess of 1200 J/Kg over the plains, which would support the risk for wind gusts approaching 80 mph in the strongest thunderstorms that form. While PWATs are still elevated, the deep inverted-V profiles will support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. Behind the cold front a period of breezy west winds is forecast to develop in most areas. The lowest portion of the atmosphere dries out quite quickly behind the front, which will allow for relative humidity to continue falling behind the front, even as temperatures cool. The combination of the breezy and dry conditions, as well as the potential for a few dry thunderstorms brings about an elevated fire weather risk across most of the region. Heading into Monday the upper system responsible for active weather today will exit eastward. Weak ridging builds in across the west in wake of this system, though with some lingering monsoonal moisture near the Idaho border between Monida and West Yellowstone, a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out by late afternoon. The rest of the region looks dry Monday. The upper level ridging more or less persists much of the upcoming week, but as it shifts slowly eastward an upper level trough approaching the Pacific NW will slowly allow for showers and thunderstorms to spread further and further northward across the region each day. -AM - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: The main source of uncertainty today is with respect to how ongoing convection over the plains north of Great Falls will modify the convective environment this afternoon. On one hand this activity may limit destabilization in some areas where forcing is greatest. Conversely this activity and associated outflow may serve as a focus for additional convective initiation mid-afternoon, resulting in perhaps a greater areal extent of convective activity. ADditionally, if this activity persists, it could eventually break the cap and intensify and become the main area of concern across the Hi-Line. Nonetheless, any thunderstorm that forms this afternoon will be capable of strong wind gusts, and at least briefly large hail. -AM && .AVIATION... 23/18Z TAF Period The primary concern during the TAF period is isolated showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon and early evening along and east of I-15. Severe wind gusts and large hail will be possible with thunderstorms, with best chances for isolated 50-65kts gusts at KHVR and KLWT. Breezy west to southwest synoptic winds settle in this afternoon as well. Storms clear during the evening, which will help clear out clouds. For KGTF: West winds of 10 to 20 kts with gusts up to 35 kts will continue through 24/04z. Thunderstorm chances remain low at KGTF this afternoon. However, there's a 30% chance an isolated storm initiates over the terminal with little to no warning. Strong winds and hail are the primary hazards with thunderstorms. -Wilson && .FIRE WEATHER... A surface front will bring gusty westerly winds through the afternoon hours across the region. Widespread gusts over 35 mph are possible and will be enhanced by any thunderstorm activity that develops. Minimum RH values will be most critical in Southwest Montana where the RFW is currently in effect for Sunday afternoon and evening. Further north, conditions will be windy but not quite as dry. Additionally there is some disagreement in the latest models as to how the thunderstorms will develop and how widespread they will be. With this uncertainty in place the decision was made to hold off on issuing a RFW for North-Central Montana for now. But elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will be a concern across the entire region. Where thunderstorms do develop, the concerns will be frequent lightning and gusty/erratic winds which may lead to new fire starts and make new and/or existing fires difficult to contain. -thor && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 54 81 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 50 77 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 50 84 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 48 82 49 84 / 10 0 0 20 WYS 39 79 41 79 / 20 0 20 20 DLN 47 84 50 85 / 0 0 0 20 HVR 55 82 51 84 / 10 0 0 0 LWT 52 79 48 82 / 30 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  440 FXUS63 KABR 231839 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 139 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) across central SD and a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) along and west of the James River this evening. The main concerns will be golf ball size hail, wind gusts exceeding 60 mph, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall. - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather Monday night. Threat include one golf ball size hail and 60-75 mph gusts. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A weak upper level trough of low pressure currently over western ND still may become the focal point for showers and storms impacting the western CWA later this evening. A few showers and storms are ongoing, with some model guidance suggesting modest intensity over the next few hours. However, the best low level moisture and instability is located mainly west of the CWA, with SBCAPE exceeding 1K J/kg over western SD. Across much of eastern ND, and northeastern SD, surface dewpoints in the 50s with limited moisture advection at this time. As of now, the RRFS is the more robust model solution with convection developing over the western Dakotas. The storms in western SD move eastward toward the CWA around 23-0Z before diminishing. It still maintains a convection complex over southwest ND moving southward into north central SD after 1Z. The lack of a LLJ may limit the overall severe threat with the RRFS showing the storms weakening with time. The past few runs of the HRRR keeps most of the CWA free from severe weather. Overall, the severe threat is best west of the Missouri River where a few storms may produce golf ball size hail and 60-75 mph wind gusts. The pcpn should exit the CWA before 12Z Monday. A frontal boundary will cross the region Monday through Monday night may produce an isolated storm during the day period. Models due indicate convection developing after 0Z Tuesday, with eastern ND having a good potential for storms. A lee of the Black Hills surface low may cause additional storms over central and south central SD. While widespread severe weather is not anticipated, a stronger storm or two could produce golf ball size hail and wind gusts of 60 to 75 mph. After dry conditions midweek, chances for precipitation returns to the forecast area Thursday night through the weekend. Temperatures remain at or above average for this time of year. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Prevailing VFR conditions can be expected for all terminals through the valid taf period. Later this evening, showers and thunderstorms may track southeastward across the area, with KMBG having the best potential of seeing thunderstorms. Overall, confidence remains low with timing and areal extend of precipitation. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...17 DISCUSSION...17 AVIATION...17  389 FXUS64 KLCH 231837 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 137 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect until 8 PM this evening. Another Heat Advisory has been issued for Monday. Afternoon highs will again climb to near 100 degrees with maximum apparent temperatures ranging from 108 to 114. - Temperatures will remain above normal through Tuesday before returning nearer to normal through the second half of the week. - A few afternoon thunderstorms are expected each day. With that comes a low end chance that a couple may produce severe thunderstorm winds gusts, but the majority of the region will remain dry through Wednesday. Precipitation chances will increase Thursday into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Wx map illustrates a fairly relaxed pattern locally with slack standard sea level pressure this afternoon and evening. Due to the amount of instability aloft, it is possible to squeeze out a late afternoon thunderstorm, but the chances are very low end- supporting only isolated activity. Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8PM CDT this evening. Another Heat Advisory has been issued for Monday across the entire CWA as many locations will still hedge into criteria while actual high temperatures build to the upper 90s and low 100s. Some observations do reflect lower dewpoints across south central portions of Louisiana and few locations across Southeast Tx. Regardless, the impact potential for heat related illnesses still warrants the advisory. A shortwave trough extending south of the eastern Great Lakes Region does have some perturbative flow along the SW periphery which stretches across the ARKLATEX region where it abuts a much drier subtropical ridge. Short term guidance suggests this piece of energy may force elevated parcels above 1 km into scattered thunderstorm activity. Currently these chances are favored along and east of the I-49 corridor. It is possible the spatial extent could expand further west toward Southeast Texas, however, the atmospheric profile becomes less supportive further west of the Mississippi river. By Tuesday, a stationary boundary that meanders north of the Louisiana / Arkansas state line may continue to act as focal mechanism for initiating isolated to scattered storms. Given the latest trends in both blended and deterministic guidance, much of the better chances for rainfall still remain east of the I-49 corridor. Temperatures will continue to trend through the mid and upper 90s during through the first half of the work week. Thursday and Friday the boundary begins to show signs of moving further south, potentially increasing opportunities for measurable rainfall across the rest of the forecast area. Low end chances carry into the following weekend ahead while temperatures remain in the mid 90s. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through much of the afternoon. There is a low end conditional chance for isolated TS cells, some of which may have strong up drafts, therefore probs were included through late afternoon hours. Winds will calm tonight then increase out of the west and later south Monday / Monday afternoon. 30 && .MARINE... Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Light onshore winds will persist through the week with seas ranging from 1-2 feet. Precipitation chances return across the coastal waters Thursday into next weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A few afternoon thunderstorms will develop each day through Wednesday with the highest probabilities in and around the Atchafalaya basin and east. Better precipitation chances are expected area wide Thursday through next weekend. KBDI values presently range from 530 to 750 across the region and will continue climbing as drought conditions worsen over the next couple of weeks. Daily minimum relative humidity will range from 40- 50% away from the immediate coastline through the middle of the week. Personal outdoor burning is strongly discouraged. Burn bans have been issued for most parishes and counties by local governments. Consult your local fire departments for more information. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045- 055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for LAZ027>033-044- 045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262- 515-516-615-616. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ180-201- 259>262-515-516-615-616. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30 AVIATION...30  595 FXUS65 KMSO 231843 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1243 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Cold front brings cooler temperatures alongside gusty westerly winds, dry air, and elevated fire weather this afternoon. - Ridge of high pressure rebuilds early this upcoming week with a warming trend. - Thunderstorms expand northward Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across northwest and southwest Montana, otherwise a cold front will bring a much drier airmass to the region. Gusty afternoon winds will lead to elevate fire weather conditions, particularly in southwest Montana. Skies clear this evening with gusty winds diminishing around sunset. High pressure ridging builds back in Monday lasting through Wednesday with a gradual warming trend as high temperatures reach 10 degrees above normal by Tuesday and Wednesday. After a few morning showers on Tuesday, thunderstorm chances may expand northward to about the I-90 corridor in western Montana. Much will depend on if morning cloud cover lingers into the afternoon and limits instability and thus thunderstorm coverage. Monsoon moisture spreads over most of the Northern Rockies on Wednesday (potentially Thursday as well), expanding areal coverage of shower/thunderstorm chances. This activity will likely be a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms, thus new fire starts will be a concern. Nearly all ensemble guidance supports a trough into the Pacific Northwest Friday into Saturday knocking down the ridge. This pattern supports increased afternoon winds and a slight cool down in daytime temperatures, thus fire weather concerns become elevated once again. && .AVIATION...Lingering showers or isolated thunderstorms continue across northwest and southwest Montana this afternoon. Otherwise, a significantly drier airmass will mix into the region with widespread VFR weather conditions. Deep mixing will produce gusty westerly winds between 15 and 30 knots across all terminals through the early evening hours. Winds decouple and relax around sunset. Ridging builds in Monday with VFR conditions and light diurnally driven winds. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Deerlodge/West Beaverhead. ID...None. && $$  697 FXUS61 KCTP 231845 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 245 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Not much at all && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Upper low over the Upper Great Lakes will move southeast tonight then bounce to the northeast Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will move through the region periodically through Monday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Upper low over the Upper Great Lakes will move southeast tonight then bounce to the northeast Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will move through the region periodically through Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms are spread across all of the CWA, even as far S as the Turnpike, this afternoon. The convection is likely at a peak right now as the forcing from a significant short wave trough is moving through coincident with peak solar heating. A lull may be in store as we get under the influence of the NVA behind the trough. But, it will only be brief as a stronger wave rounds/warps the base of the upper low over the Great Lakes. That feature is on track to redevelop convection over the NW around or just before sunset, and drive more SHRA/TSRA through between then and midnight. All of these showers have the potential to make some small hail. A G29KT just happened at CXY as a good SHRA passed, and that shows the potential of showers (there was no TS) that may /seem/ a bit too far from the cold pool aloft. After midnight, the coverage of showers should be lower. Without the extra help from the sun and strong forcing, the cold pool aloft won't be enough to generate more than isolated showers, and thunder will be unlikely overnight. We expect not as much coverage to the SHRA/TSRA Monday without good PVA moving across. However, the cold pool aloft and heating should make isolated to scattered convection along the northern tier. It is very unlikely that any precip will get south of I-80. Some will linger into the night, but it gets dry on Tuesday with not muggy, but not refreshing dewpoints. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Upper level trough swinging across the area along with a west to southwest flow over Lake Erie resulted in showers across the far northwest this morning. Low over southwestern Ontario. Weather pattern more typical of late September than late August. Winds slowly shifting more from the west now, resulting in the activity pushing more into our area this aft. Most of the activity is in the form of showers, with leading left moving cells on the wind shift line moving over the Finger Lakes. Thus went mainly VCSH, but did target BFD for MVFR conditions. By late afternoon and early evening, activity should taper off, as heating ends. MVFR and IFR conditions across BFD and JST expected overnight with lower CIGS. Fog potential limited with this weather pattern. For Monday, still VCSH possible across the Mtns. Outlook... Tue-Wed...Patchy morning fog, otherwise mainly VFR conditions. Thu-Fri...Chance of showers and storms again. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo AVIATION...Martin  846 FXUS61 KBUF 231846 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 246 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Cool weather and periodic showers and thunderstorms, some of the lake-effect variety, are expected through Tuesday. 2.) Dry weather expected region-wide this Tuesday night through Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Cool weather and periodic showers and thunderstorms, some of the lake-effect variety, are expected through Tuesday. Aloft, a low should wobble ENE'ward from the northern Great Lakes to near the Gulf of St. Lawrence the rest of today through Tuesday. In response, cyclonic flow, initially SW'erly to W'erly over our region, veers to NW'erly overnight tonight into Monday and then remains NW'erly through Tuesday. Shortwave disturbances embedded in the cyclonic flow will continue to impact Western and Central NY. At the surface, a cold front was located near I-81 at 1:35 PM EDT. This front will continue moving E'ward and should exit the rest of our CWA by 4 PM at the latest. Behind the front, a lake-aggregate trough is expected to persist through Monday night and then a high pressure ridge will begin to build from the western and central Great Lakes on Tuesday. Net low-level CAA will impact our region behind the cold front. Accordingly, late afternoon highs should reach the mid 60's to mid 70's today and Tuesday, respectively. In between, Monday is expected to feature highs only in the 60's to lower 70's courtesy of colder 850 mb temperatures and rather abundant cloud cover, including diurnal cumuliform clouds. Overnight lows should reach mainly the upper 40's to upper 50's around daybreak Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, respectively. Outside lake-effect precip (details below), isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected the rest of today through Monday night as low-level convergence/moist ascent along the cold front and surface trough axes accompanying the shortwave disturbances release at least weak potential instability in the lowest ~1 km AGL and weak boundary layer CAPE stemming from daytime warming through this early evening and again late Monday morning through early evening. Behind the cold front, scattered lake-effect rain showers and thunderstorms have already developed over/downwind of Lake Erie and over much of Lake Ontario. Lake-effect rain showers and thunderstorms with periods of heavy rainfall will continue through Monday night as synoptic-scale low-level moisture remains deep/abundant and 850 mb temperatures around 8C to 10C continue to become established over/downwind of ~23C to ~24C Lakes Erie and Ontario, behind the cold front. Those factors will yield sizable lake-induced CAPE and lake-induced EL's around 20kft to perhaps 30kft above lake level. The passage of the aforementioned shortwave troughs will cause mean low-level flow direction to vary over and downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Accordingly, lake-effect precip should primarily stream ESE'ward or SE'ward from Lake Erie through Monday night. However, a period of W'erly to WSW'erly mean low-level flow should allow lake-effect precip to stream E'ward or ENE'ward from the lake during most of the predawn and daylight hours of Monday. This lake-effect precip should remain south of Buffalo. As for Lake Ontario, mean low-level flow should allow lake-effect precip to impact locations generally northeast of the lake through Monday afternoon, before the precip shifts S'ward and eventually settles southeast of the lake Monday evening through Monday night as a shortwave trough axis passage causes mean low-level flow to veer from SW'erly to NW'erly over/downwind of the lake. Note: lake-effect precip is expected to be most-organized tonight into Monday morning and again Monday night into Tuesday morning, when nocturnal cooling will allow Lakes Erie and Ontario to be the primary sources of warmth, moisture, and instability. On Tuesday, lake-effect rain showers and thunderstorms are expected to stream generally SE'ward from Lakes Erie and Ontario, but decrease in coverage/intensity and end by nightfall as the building surface ridge is accompanied by synoptic-scale low-level dry air advection, a lowering subsidence inversion, and increase in directional low-level vertical wind shear, which will all act to decrease lake-induced CAPE. Primarily dry weather is expected outside the lake-effect precip, but a few showers may accompany the passage of additional shortwave troughs/attendant surface trough axes coinciding with weak potential instability in the lowest ~1 km AGL. Key Message 2...Dry weather expected region-wide this Tuesday night through Wednesday. The high pressure ridge at the surface and aloft will build from the central Great Lakes Tuesday night and then begin to exit toward New England on Wednesday. Dry weather is expected as stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge. Considerable clearing, low humidity, and weak surface winds should allow lows to reach mainly the mid 40's to mid 50's around daybreak Wednesday. Mainly clear to party cloudy sky and net low-level WAA along the western flank of the surface ridge should allow highs to rebound to mainly the mid 70's to lower 80's late Wednesday afternoon. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface low pressure centered over the southern portions of the Ontario province, will continue to advect cool moist air across the region through the 18Z TAF period. As such wrap around, lake enhanced showers are currently scattered across WNY as of 1730Z, supporting VFR to MVFR ceilings. Meanwhile, the occluded front associated with the low is in progress of passing east across far eastern New York, supporting a line of showers and embedded thunder. Wrap around showers and thunderstorms will persist throughout this afternoon. Then with the loss of daytime instability, thunder will end shortly after sunset with just lake enhanced showers remaining east of both lakes. Given the cooler temperatures aloft, lake enhanced showers will continue through Monday. As such, a mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings will persist across both WNY and the eastern Lake Ontario region. Outlook... Monday night through Tuesday night...Lake effect rain, mainly east and southeast of the Lakes with associated restrictions diminishing off Lake Erie Monday night into Tuesday and off Lake Ontario Tuesday/Tuesday night. Otherwise mainly VFR. Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR, except MVFR/IFR conditions possible from scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. && .MARINE... Behind a cold front passage today, an upper-level low will bring an early taste of autumn with brisk winds developing, courtesy of a decently strong pressure gradient and moderate instability over the lakes. SW'erly to W'erly winds around 15 to 25 knots will result in choppy waters through Monday night on Lake Erie and through Tuesday on Lake Ontario. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements remain in effect. Lake- effect rain showers and thunderstorms may produce waterspouts through Tuesday, amidst sizable lake-induced instability as cool air associated with cyclonic flow around an upper-level low crosses the warm lakes. Quieter marine conditions are expected Tuesday night through Wednesday as a high pressure ridge builds from the western and central Great Lakes. During Wednesday night through Thursday, the ridge should exit E'ward, allow a warm front to sweep NE'ward across Lakes Erie and Ontario, and cause SE'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots to veer to S'erly to SW'erly. Waves should be 3 feet or less. On Friday, a cold front should sweep E'ward across Lakes Erie and Ontario and cause S'erly to SW'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots to veer to W'erly to NW'erly. Waves should remain 3 feet or less. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for NYZ001>007. Beach Hazards Statement through late Monday night for NYZ010- 019-085. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LOZ042>045. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jaszka AVIATION...EAL MARINE...Jaszka/Thomas  875 FXUS63 KGLD 231847 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1247 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another chance for storms this evening and Monday afternoon. 1 inch hail and 65 MPH winds are the primary threats. There is a low chance that a supercell may form and produce hail around 2 inches and/or a wind gust up to 75 mph. - Better chance for severe weather on Tuesday, with all hazards possible. - Above normal temperatures through at least mid week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1104 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Thru Tuesday, there is not much change to the overall pattern. An upper ridge remains forecast to be anchored over the southwest and Southern Plains, with upper troughing over the Eastern U.S. This is generally going to keep the area under northwest flow aloft. The only change in the upper pattern is that another trough is forecast to move around the ridge the next few days. This will help supply some chances for storms, especially on Tuesday. Near the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast to move into the area today, then slowly push a bit to the southeast of the area Monday and Tuesday. This is leading to breezy winds for today with winds from the south at 15-20 mph with gusts in the 25-40 mph range. Winds should be lighter the next few days around 10-15 mph as the low is forecast to broaden out a bit. For temperatures, highs are forecast to be in the 90s each day with mid to upper 90s possible tomorrow when the upper ridge is most amplified over the area. Lows should generally be in the 60s, with maybe a few 70s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. In regards to storms, the overall progression and timing will be similar through Tuesday. Storms are forecast to develop west of the area during the afternoon and late afternoon hours each day. The storms would then likely enter the area around 5-8pm MT and try and push east through the area. The main peak in storm intensity would generally be between 5-10pm MT, with severe weather possible mainly in the form of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storm activity could persist through the night each day, but would mostly likely end by 1-4am CT. The storms this evening are forecast to be on the marginal side with an environment that is capped, has effective shear around 20-30 kts, and 1500-2500 J/kg. While supportive of storm activity, most storms will likely pulse up and down with not much to show for it. Still, they may be able to produce 1 inch hail and a few wind gusts around 60 mph. There is, about a 15% chance that supercell is able to form, especially if the environment modifies to have the higher end of the shear and instability values. In this case, be alert for large hail potentially reaching around 2 inches and wind gusts around 70-80 mph. The severe threat looks to largely be confined to counties along the Colorado border, with increasingly stable air to the east and the upstream upper trough lifting more to the north and weakening its influence in the area as the evening goes on. Tomorrow, the shear is forecast to remain around 20-30 kts while the instability and lapse rates are forecast to be a bit lower compared to today. The lesser instability is from the forecast calling for dewpoints to drop into the 50s and low 60s across most of the area. If this happens along the with upper trough sliding along the Northern Plains, the storms would probably move into the area a few hours later (likely closer to 7-9pm MT). They would also be less likely to be severe, though one or two could still produce wind gusts around 60 mph and maybe some hail close to an inch in size. The main concern for this would be if a cluster develops in Western Nebraska and pushes south into the area. Tuesday, dewpoints are forecast to recover with most of the area in the 60s. With instability forecast to be closer to 3000 J/kg, 0-6km shear around 40 kts,and the upper trough moving through the Plains in the northwest flow, Tuesday may have the most support for storm development and strength. The main question seems to be how quickly storms cluster and do they form in the area. If the storms form in the area and/or stay isolated, the risk for large hail above 2 inches increases. Otherwise, the threat for wind gusts around 70 mph would be greater. Strong winds and large hail would be possible either way, but it will be hard for either hazard to reach its full potential without storms being in a certain mode. Another sneaky hazard is the potential for a tornado or two. While the environment isn't very supportive of tornadoes, supercells may be able to briefly produce one. The bigger tornado concern is if a line forms like some guidance is suggesting and sweeps through the area from northwest to southeast. With 0-3km shear vectors forecast to be from the south/southeast at 15-25 mph, a QLCS tornado or two may occur. There is a foil for this in that storms that develop ahead of the main clusters and lines may cause them to become disorganized and fall apart. With this, currently keeping the threat for tornadoes on the lower side, with the greater concern and emphasis on wind and hail. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 1244 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Synoptically, the ridge to the west is forecast to mainly remain stationary over the Four Corners region, keeping us in northwesterly flow throughout the period. Guidance indicates the ridge may begin to amplify on Wednesday, and begin to de-amplify come Friday as a trough moves through the US/Canadian Border. Shortwaves are expected to move through the area during the week and into the weekend, increasing precipitation chances. High temperatures for the period will generally remain in the 90s. Wednesday appears to be the "coolest" day, with highs ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s. Saturday is forecast to be the warmest, with highs in the upper 90s and the potential for a few locations to reach the low 100s. If the ridge begins to move eastward, then higher than forecasted temperatures could be seen. Winds are expected to remain calm to breezy throughout the period. Precipitation chances are present throughout the period. Wednesday and Thursday hold the highest potential, with PoPs in the 20-50% range, as shortwaves move through the area during the afternoon and evening hours. While instability and shear parameters appear sufficient for severe storms, model guidance suggests some variability in CAPE and shear values, which could lead to less organized storms and reduced severe chances. Precipitation chances then begins to taper off to 5-25% for Friday through Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1104 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Winds near the surface are forecast to remain from the south for the first few hours with speeds around 15 kts and some gusts around 20-30 kts. Around 21-23Z, winds should lighten closer to 10 kts with the direction beginning to shift after 03Z. There is a chance that storms move near the KGLD terminal from the west after 04Z. While likely to be sub-severe, a storm or two may be able to produce large hail and a wind gust around 50-60 kts. The storms threat should end by 07Z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...Holdren AVIATION...KAK  891 FXUS64 KEWX 231847 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 147 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 141 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Extreme Heat Warning continues Sunday for the northern Hill Country, Austin area and into the Coastal Plains. - Heat Advisory continues through Wednesday for portions of the Hill Country, I-35 Corridor, and Coastal Plains. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The heat will continue to be the main focus through mid-week as temperatures remain above normal. A strong ridge of high pressure remains centered over the southern Rocky Mountains and this will be the main influencer of our weather pattern. The Extreme Heat Warning for the northern Hill Country, Austin area and southward into the Coastal plains will remain in effect until 7 PM CDT Sunday. A Heat Advisory also continues today for portions of the Hill Country, I-35 Corridor and Coastal plains. Highs are still on track to top out in the 103 to 107 degree range for areas under the Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory. For Monday (through Wednesday), we will continue the current Heat Advisory for portions of the Hill Country, I-35 Corridor, and Coastal Plains. While a few spots may approach 105 degrees (mainly northern Hill Country to near Austin), confidence is not quite high enough to go with another Extreme Heat Warning at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The above mentioned ridge of high pressure will continue to remain the dominant weather feature through much of this week. There are some indications that convection to our north could send a weak outflow boundary southward late Wednesday. Confidence is low, but we will monitor as the boundary may allow a surface focus for convective initiation. In addition, models generally show a decent signal for an increase in mid and upper level cloud cover Wednesday into Thursday as the mid-level flow briefly trends back to a northwesterly direction. Weak disturbances embedded in northwest flow aloft always bear watching and for now we will keep some low rain chances (20-30%) in the forecast Thursday afternoon and evening across the Hill Country into the I-35 corridor from near San Marcos northward. Some low rain chances for the same areas could linger into Friday, but overall confidence in this is rather low. Late in the forecast period, the flow aloft should trend back to a more north to northeasterly direction, which typically does not favor any rainfall chances. Temperatures will remain well above normal through the period and additional heat headlines will be our main concern. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The next 24-30 hours will be a repeat of the last few days with no major impacts to area airports. All terminals will be VFR through the period with only some occasional high clouds. Winds will be generally less than 10 kts from a southerly direction. We could see occasional gusts from 10-15 kts, but not consistent enough to include in the TAFs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 80 105 77 105 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 79 104 77 104 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 77 103 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 76 103 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 78 104 77 103 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 79 104 77 103 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 75 101 74 101 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 76 103 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 104 77 104 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 77 102 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 77 104 76 104 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ171>173- 192>194-208-209-223-225. Heat Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ171>173-192>194-208-209-223-225. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ187-189-190-204- 219. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ191-205>207- 220>222-224. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...Platt  909 FXUS63 KJKL 231848 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 248 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Noticeably cooler and less humid air arrives behind a cold front to start the new week. - Chances for a few showers and thunderstorms return around midweek. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1025 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 14Z sfc analysis shows high pressure nudging into Kentucky from the west. This is working to clear the morning valley fog while it brings in slightly drier and cooler air. Currently, temperatures are running in the mid upper 60s to lower 70s. Meanwhile, amid light winds, dewpoints are generally in the low 60s north and in the mid to upper 60s south. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 520 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Early this morning, an enlongated upper low was centered over sections of the Great Lakes with an upper trough axis southeast into the mid OH Valley and Central to Southern Appalachians to the Carolinas with an upper ridge centered in NM with ridging extending across portions of the western Conus into the Central Conus/Plains. Drier air has been gradually moving into the Lower OH Valley and eastern KY behind a cold front though the drier air has made a bit less progress into the more southern and southeastern locations as a ridge of sfc high pressure builds into the Lower OH valley from the mid and upper MS Valley regions. Rather extensive fog mainly in the valleys has spread into some no valley locations. Some observation sites such as KEKQ, KSME, and KI35 have recently reported dense fog and fog appears on the dense side at some KY Mesonet station locations as well as on a few of the KYTC cameras. With that in mind, have opted to issue an SPS for fog over the next few hours for areas generally south and southeast of the I-64 corridor. Today and tonight, gradual 500 mb height rises are anticipated as the upper low meanders to the eastern Great Lakes and sections of the mid Atlantic states and axis of the upper trough remains east of the Commonwealth. At the same time, the sfc ridge of high pressure will build across the Commonwealth and into sections of the mid OH Valley by late tonight. A dry airmass for this time of year will be ushered into eastern KY with PW per the 00Z HREF expected in the 5th to 20th percentile. This will set the stage for not much in the way of cloud cover today other than diurnally driven cumulus following the lifting and dissipation of the fog through the 9 AM to 10 AM EDT timeframe this morning. Mixing should result in dewpoints dropping a bit below NBM deterministic values. This airmass will also be cooler as well as drier and this should support highs around 5 degrees below normal for the day on Sunday. The pattern should again favor valley fog formation along the rivers, larger creeks, and area lakes tonight. The normally colder locations may drop to as low as 52 or 53 tonight with the drier airmass in place with more in the way of solid mid 50s for valleys where fog forms and ridgetop locations on the order of the upper 50s to near 60. On Monday, 500 mb heights should continue a general upward trend as the axis of the upper trough moves further east of the Lower OH Valley and Appalachians and upper ridging centered in the NM vicinity builds in sections of the Central Conus/Plains and toward the MS Valley. One more shortwaves will be moving around this ridging and near the mid MS Valley area by Monday evening. Highs for Monday should be similar to Sunday with northwest to west northwest flow aloft prevailing. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 450 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 The long term period should begin with an upper low centered over Quebec and an axis of an upper trough south into the mid Atlantic states to the Carolinas to VA while an upper level ridge should be centered over NM and extend into portions of the western Conus as well as the Central to Southern Plains/portions of the Central Conus. Also at that point, another upper level low should be near the Saskatchewan and Manitoba border with an associated trough south into the eastern MT and easter WY border area with the Dakotas. Further west, an upper trough is expected to extend from west of the coast of BC to west of the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a frontal zone should extend from the eastern Carolinas across the Gulf coast states into the Southern Plains on Monday evening while a sfc ridge of high pressure should extend for the Appalachians to the western Great Lakes while a low pressure system should be near the Manitoba and Saskatchewan border with a trailing cold front into the Dakotas with the frontal zone extending into the western Conus. From Monday night to Tuesday night, a weak shortwave moving around the ridging over much of the Rockies and into parts of the Central Conus should move through the OH Valley and Commonwealth but it will be moisture starved with mainly just some passing high clouds. Some height rises at 500 mb are progged during the day on Tuesday, before near neutral height tendencies or some subtle 500 mb height falls are forecast for Tuesday night as troughing remains from eastern Canada into the Northeast Conus/eastern seaboard and the upper ridge remains centered in southern NM thought it is progged to build north through sections of the Rockies. Meanwhile the upper low initially just north of ND should trek gradually into Ontario and near the northern Great Lakes. This leaves northwest to west northwest flow aloft across the Commonwealth and Lower OH Valley into the central to southern Appalachians. During this time, a ridge of sfc high pressure will shift across the Lower to Mid MS Valley and Central Appalachians and become centered in the mid Atlantic states by late Tuesday night. At the same time, additional disturbances moving around the ridging centered in NW should interact with the frontal/baroclinic zone initially south of eastern KY with a sfc wave tracking to near the confluence of the OH and MS Rivers late Tuesday night while further east the boundary lifts into the TN Valley as a warm front and approaches. This may lead to a bit of increase in moisture and some cloud cover at mid and high levels late Tuesday night. Sfc high pressure will remain the dominant feature with a drier airmass, with PW on the order of 20th to 30th percentile if not most of the time lower per LREF, in place will allow for lows in the mid 50s to near 60 on ridges and the development of valley fog along the rivers, larger creeks, and areas lakes both Monday night and Tuesday night. Daytime highs on Tuesday trend closer to normal for late August. Wednesday to Thursday night, a shortwave trough from the mid MS Valley to the Ozarks regions should move east into the Lower OH Valley and parts of the TN Valley and SOutheast as an upper low initially over Ontario and the northern Great Lakes weakens as it moves further east and begins to interact and merge with an upper low/trough centered over the Hudson Bay vicinity. This leaves an upper trough axis from the Hudson and James Bay area south across the Central Great Lakes to the OH and TN Valleys to Southeast by late Thursday night. During this period the upper ridge in the western/southwestern Conus becomes centered further west and southeast to the south of the Four Corners region with the axis of the upper ridge extending into the Southern Plains with another axis north and northeast into MT and Alberta and Saskatchewan that shifts east across WY and eastern MT to Saskatchewan. At the same time, an upper low moves into BC with the trailing trough moving into the Pacific northwest and sections of the interior northwest. Meanwhile as the initial shortwave trough moves across the area at midweek the sfc wave should track over or near eastern KY while the sfc low in the Great Lakes reaches the Northeast and sends an associated cold front across eastern KY Thursday. This will lead to isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm potential over eastern KY that may tend to peak on Thursday near and ahead of a cold front. The consensus of guidance is for a return of near normal temperatures. Friday to Saturday, the upper trough axis is progged to shift east with a broad trough in place from Ontario and Quebec into sections of the eastern Conus. Guidance has a trend of rising 500 mb heights and more of a zonal/westerly flow at that point with upper level ridges centered near Bermuda and the southwest Conus to end the period. This will lead to some initial small chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly on Friday afternoon before rising heights likely suppresses convection on Saturday. Temperatures should remain near normal for late August. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Valley fog is forecast for overnight and early Monday. It will bring localized IFR or worse conditions, probably affecting a few TAF sites at times around dawn. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...HAL  990 FXUS61 KBTV 231851 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 251 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 250 PM EDT Sunday... No significant changes have been made to the forecast. Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to continue throughout the afternoon, with some isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 250 PM EDT Sunday... 1. Numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue across the region this afternoon, with some isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible. 2. Lingering showers will continue into the start of the week under broad cyclonic flow, with drier weather returning towards the middle of the week. 3. Showers with some thunderstorm potential to end the week will be followed by another tranquil period over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 250 PM EDT Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Gusty showers continue to bubble up across the region this afternoon as a frontal boundary continues to move through the region. Some more embedded thunderstorms are expected to develop as the afternoon progresses, especially with clearing skies allowing for more instability over the next few hours. CAPE values are expected to reach around 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon, which will help with the thunderstorm development, along with modest lapse rates and shear. SPC continues to show the entire forecast area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather this afternoon with the idea that a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, with possible hail and strong winds as the primary threats. Storms looks to be progressive, limiting any hydro concerns at this time, especially given the dry weather the last few days. The current forecast still shows about 0.20 to 0.50 inches across much of the area, with lower totals expected across much of the Northeast Kingdom and some higher amounts possible within any thunderstorms that develop. Shower activity will gradually wane through this evening as the frontal boundary exits the region, although some showers may linger overnight, especially across northern New York. Some clearing may be possible tonight behind the system, which may lead to some fog/mist developing overnight, especially in locations that see rainfall today as there will be plenty of moisture, although winds may be enough to limit this potential. Overnight lows are expected to generally be in the upper 40s and 50s tonight, with temperatures near Lake Champlain near 60. KEY MESSAGE 2: For the start of the week, the region will remain in broad cyclonic flow, will will allow for linger showers on Monday and Tuesday, especially across the higher terrain as the upper level low gradually shifts away from the region. This cyclonic flow will also lead to some lake effect showers off Lake Ontario, with increased shower chances expected across northern New York Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures will be on the cool side, with highs only climbing into the 70s, with some locations in the Adirondacks struggling to climb out of the upper 60s. A brief period of ridging looks to build into the region for Wednesday, bringing some drier weather conditions for the middle of the week. KEY MESSAGE 3: A broad upper-level trough remains on track to progress into the eastern Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon, putting us in a favorable position for showers and thunderstorms. The probability of thunderstorms compared to 24 hours ago has trended quite a bit higher for this timeframe, with the latest NBM 6 hour thunder chances (2 PM to 8 PM) now in the 25 to 32% range across our region. Relatedly, forecast temperatures have ticked up with highs favored to reach the upper 70s to mid 80s amidst seasonably humid conditions with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s during peak heating. Generally the potential for stronger storms is low but appears to be slightly elevated in northern New York relative to Vermont where both CAPE and shear will likely be somewhat higher. With a surface low and associated trough slow to push eastward, shower chances will continue through Thursday night into Friday morning, which makes the convective chances for Friday questionable. However, signals for higher instability relative to Thursday, especially in Vermont, still exists in many pieces of ensemble guidance. The large scale pattern with continued height falls and cold front still to our west suggests scattered showers and thunderstorms are a good bet for Friday afternoon, especially if there is enough surface heating. Given convective nature of a lot of the rain, rainfall amounts will likely be highly variable, but overall the potential for excessive rain is minimal at this time without particularly rich moisture. 48 hour probabilities of rainfall exceeding an inch per latest NBM are only as high as 22% and mainly under 10% in our region. As the system's low pressure area occludes near Hudson Bay, a ridge of high pressure will build in to the south and expand across the northeastern US by Saturday morning, providing us with low humidity and seasonable conditions for the weekend. Perhaps by the end of the weekend the gyre will be forced southward and precipitation chances increase, but the predictability of such a scenario is low at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 18Z Monday...A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings are present with cloud bases scattered to broken in the 2000 to 3000 foot range. Scattered showers are arranged in relatively narrow strips oriented from south to north, and will gradually translate eastward through the next six to eight hours or so. Probabilities of thunder associated with these showers generally will peak in the 20Z to 23Z period. Given relatively low chances/lack of thunderstorms currently to track, have used PROB30 groups during intervals when convective chances are highest. At MPV, instability is expected to be low enough to use only SHRA rather than TSRA in PROB30 groups. Showers will result in perhaps brief IFR visibilities with direct hits along with wind gusts exceeding 25 knots. Otherwise, conditions will tend to be VFR through most of the period. After 00Z, there will be limited potential for fog with moderate southerly/southwesterly winds off the deck. Greatest potential appears to be at MPV with skies clearing following evening showers if surface winds becoming calm, but southerly flow may be sufficient to keep the boundary layer somewhat mixed overnight. Relatively light surface winds at all terminals should increase substantially following sunrise with diurnally driven gusts near 20 knots favored at selected terminals including SLK and BTV. Outlook... Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Kremer AVIATION...Kutikoff  969 FXUS62 KTBW 231850 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 250 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid conditions will continue. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf during the late night and early morning hours will move onshore each morning and then shift inland during the afternoon hours through Tuesday. - Light southerly flow sets up during midweek with a more typical summertime pattern of scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 High pressure ridge will remain across south Florida through Tuesday with the southwesterly flow continuing across the area. There will be enough moisture to allow isolated to scattered late night and early morning showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf to develop and move onshore each morning and then shift inland during the afternoon hours. During midweek the ridge axis drifts north across the region with a light southerly flow setting up. Deeper moisture will return with scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected Wednesday through Friday. Next weekend the ridge axis is expected to be north of the forecast area allowing for a more typical easterly flow to become established and with plenty of moisture we should continue to see scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening convection each day. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal through the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect TPA, PIE, LAL, and SRQ through about 21Z with MVFR/occasional IFR conditions. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 West to southwest winds will remain over the waters for the next couple of days then shift to southerly during midweek and eventually southeast next weekend. No headlines are expected as winds should remain 15 knots, except gusty and erratic near scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Fire weather concerns remain minimal as relative humidity values remain well above critical thresholds and winds will be less than 15 mph, except gusty and erratic near showers and thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 79 91 79 91 / 10 30 10 20 FMY 77 95 78 95 / 10 20 10 20 GIF 74 95 75 95 / 10 30 10 30 SRQ 78 92 78 92 / 10 20 10 20 BKV 73 93 73 92 / 10 30 10 40 SPG 79 90 79 90 / 10 20 10 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Close  050 FXUS65 KBOU 231853 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1253 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms through Thursday. A risk of a couple severe storms each day especially Tuesday and Wednesday. - Slightly cooler with near normal temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday. - Gradual drying and hotter temperatures by the end of the week and through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/... Issued at 1245 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The flow aloft will be mainly WNW this aftn thru tonight with PW values 100 to 150 percent above normal. Don't really see anything aloft to enhance tstm development, so will see another round of sct showers and storms across the CWA. Overall, expect mostly outflow dominant storms with gusty winds and possibly some marginal large hail over the plains. DCAPE values are mainly at or below 1000 j/kg but a few storms may still produce brief wind gusts from 55 to 65 mph. On Mon, the flow aloft will remain WNW with some decrease in moisture as PW values drop to 100 to 125 percent above normal. As a result, may see less activity Mon aftn and evening. DCAPE values are fcst to rise to 1000 to 1500 j/kg, so there will be some potential for gusty outflow winds from the activity. Highs will be in the upper 80's to mid 90's. For Tue, the flow aloft will be slightly stronger from the WNW as a weak cool front moves into nern CO. As a result, will see temperatures drop back to more seasonal levels with an increase in low level moisture across nern CO. Will see a better chc of showers and tstms across the higher terrain by aftn. Across the plains, initial tstm development may focus over the Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide by mid to late aftn and then track across the plains by Tue evening. MLCAPE will range from 1000-1500 j/kg with favorable shear. Thus would expect a few svr storms across the plains. On Wed, the flow aloft will become more NWLY. MLCAPE will range from 1000-1500 j/kg, across nern CO, with the higher values over the I-25 Corridor. With favorable shear, should see a few svr storms by mid to aftn along portions of the I-25 Corridor which will move across the plains during the early evening hours. Over the higher terrain will see sct showers and storms. Highs on Wed, will stay in the 80's across the plains. Looking ahead to Thu and Fri, the upper level ridge will extend from the srn Rockies into the swrn US. As a result, this will leave the area in WNW flow on Thu becoming more westerly by Fri. Current data shows some decrease in moisture both days, however, still expect sct showers and storms over the higher terrain with widely sct activity across the plains. Highs will be near seasonal levels on Thu and then back to above normal by Fri. By next weekend, the flow aloft will become more WSW. Will still see some influx of monsoon moisture with widely sct showers and tstms possible both days. Highs will remain above normal. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/... Issued at 1206 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Winds have turned northward in the last couple of hours, and should remain north/northeast until storms start to move through the area. Model guidance continues to show convection initiating around 21Z, so we've kept that as the start time for the TEMPO; however, given that this morning's inversion has disappeared in the recent ACARS soundings, and cumulus has started building over the foothills, it wouldn't be out of the question to see some showers and wind gusts as early as 20Z at KDEN. Gusty outflows with shifting winds (30- 40kts) remain more of a threat than precipitation over the TAF sites. Recent CAMs runs also keep showers lingering as long as 03- 04Z, so we've opted to extend the PROB30 another hour to account for that. Clouds should clear up and winds should shift towards drainage after any lingering showers/outflows move out of the area, sometime between 03-05Z. Winds will then turn back to the north in the morning, around 15Z. Another round of showers/storms/outflows is expected at about the same time tomorrow, starting around 21-22Z. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RPK AVIATION...AGS  079 FXUS64 KHUN 231854 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 154 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New NEAR TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1008 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - There are low to medium chances of thunderstorms for much of next week. However, timing and impact confidence remains low at this time. && .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 No changes from previous forecast for tonight. Under sunny skies, temps have warmed up into the upper 80s at this hour with light north/northwesterly winds. Will see an increase of mid to upper level clouds this evening and tonight, otherwise lows will reach the low to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 1008 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 We will start out the week with an upper level low centered in Quebec, a ridge centered in the southern Rockies but amplified up into the Northern Plains and another upper level low in Saskatchewan. Sfc high pressure will continue to push southeastward into the region and keep an MCS dropping out of the Central Plains on Monday to our west. The TN Valley will have a much needed break from the heat and humidity on Monday as daytime highs reach the upper 80s and dewpoints only in the 50s-60s! On Tuesday, a sfc low in the Southern Plains will help return moisture to the region and lift a warm front northward through the day. Could see a few showers/storms return to the far west portion of the CWA on Tuesday otherwise it will be moreso Tuesday night for everyone. Still stuck in this northwesterly flow pattern, a disturbance will slide into the TN Valley on Wednesday, increasing POPs from low chances (20-40%) during the day to to medium chances (50-60%) by Wednesday night. Daytime highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s on both Tuesday and Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 We will continue to be in a northwest flow regime aloft for most of the long term period. However, by Saturday, this pattern begins to break down as the upper trough to the north/northeast flattens and the upper ridge over the Desert Southwest flattens as well and pushes farther east into the ArkLaTex. A lingering surface boundary will also persist over the Southeast into Thursday before what looks like a reinforcing cold front swings through. By late week and into the first part of next weekend high pressure builds over the Appalachians and Ohio Valley. Overall, highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s will be common through the period. In addition, the above pattern will lead to daily chances of showers and storms from Tuesday through Thursday at least. Expecting lower chances come Friday/Saturday. The best chances look to be during the afternoon and evening hours, during peak heating when storms can take advantage of the greater thermodynamics in place. Ample instability in addition to bulk shear between 20-30 knots, 0-3km lapse rates between 7-8 deg C/km, along with DCAPE around or above 1000 J/kg, will warrant us keeping an eye on the forecast for at least strong to severe downburst potential Wednesday and Thursday. As has been the case recently, the main hazards are likely to be damaging winds, frequent lightning, and perhaps some hail (but freezing levels may be too high). As for heavy rain and flooding concerns, this will need to be monitored as well, since most PWATS are generally between 1.7-2.0 inches Tuesday through Thursday. These values are between the 75th and 90th percentiles when compared to BMX Sounding Climatology, which means that showers and storms will be efficient rainfall producers. Stay weather aware especially if you work outside or have outdoor activities and check back for forecast updates! && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for KHSV and KMSL. This evening there will be an increase in upper level clouds then after midnight an increase in mid level clouds that should become broken in coverage, but remain VFR. Winds will range from 340-020 at 5-10 kts today, then veer after sunset to the NE but remain light. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...JMS SHORT TERM....JMS LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...JMS  102 FXUS66 KHNX 231855 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1155 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Triple digit heat continues for San Joaquin Valley and Mojave Desert. 50 to 60 percent for Major Heat Risk in the Southern San Joaquin Valley at the start of this week. 2. A 5 to 15 percent probability for extreme heat in the Mojave Desert toward the end of the week and starting September. && .DISCUSSION... Upper level disturbance continues to swing around the ridge pattern today and crossing over the Northern Rockies. With it’s current trajectory, the disturbance will move into the Upper Mid-West on Monday as the Ridge rebounds over the West Coast. 24 Hour change in temperatures already running slightly higher from Saturday’s cool-down. Will expect a return of triple digit heat today with further heating on Monday as the exiting disturbance allows for more amplification of the Ridge on Monday. A look at the Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 100 degrees has much of the San Joaquin Valley ranging from 65 to 85 percent from Fresno To Bakersfield, respectively. North of Fresno County, the PoE range is more in the range of 45 to 65 percent. On Monday, those percentages go up to 85 to just above 95 percent. Therefore, the peak heating occurs on Monday (when widespread Moderate Heat Risk is occurring) with a drop off in the heat toward the end of the week. Also noted is a patch of Major Heat Risk over West Kern County on Monday. Furthermore, while probabilities are running high, the PoE of reaching 105 degrees is rather low with Bakersfield at 35 percent on Monday. Therefore, will confine temperatures values near 105 to the lower elevations of Kern County. With the flow aloft turning more westerly and expected to maintain its westerly component, the surge of monsoonal moisture will continue its eastward trend as probability of thunder diminishes in the coming days. While a 5-10 percent chances does exist this Sunday across the Sierra Crest, the next several days show lower probabilities for the same area. Therefore, hot and dry expected for much of this week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevailing for the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Public/Aviation....Molina weather.gov/hanford  080 FXUS66 KMTR 231854 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1154 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1204 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages persist within the marine layer through the next week - Warm and dry conditions continue above 1000 feet && .UPDATE... Issued at 920 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The marine layer remains much more compressed today with stratus confined to coastal areas and patches of it along the SF Bay shoreline. Stratus is expected to recede earlier today than yesterday with high level clouds to persist through the day. Otherwise, expect highs in the 80s across the interior with the warmest interior locations reaching the 90s. Coastal areas will stay cooler in the 60s to 70s. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1204 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 (Today and tonight) Another day of the weather pattern dominated by the balance between the ridge over the Desert Southwest and the troughing over the Eastern Pacific. Today, a cutoff low moving across the Pacific Northwest is allowing the ridging to have a little more impact over central California, resulting in a compressed marine layer and a slight uptick in temperatures across the interior. Some coastal stratus development is still possible through the overnight hours, and any stratus that does form will dissipate rather early in the post-sunrise hours. High temperatures today range in the middle 80s to the middle 90s across the interior, the upper 90s into the triple digits in the warmest interior spots (especially southern Monterey County), the 70s and lower 80s near the Bays, and the lower to middle 60s along the Pacific coast. Breezy onshore winds are expected in the afternoon and evening along the coast and through favored gaps and passes. Regarding conditions near the Timber Fire, the compressed marine layer will lead to warm and dry conditions in the higher elevations where the fire continues to actively burn. Light northeast winds in the morning will shift to a southwest flow in the afternoon and evening hours. Smoke transport will be inhibited by the marine layer inversion into the morning, resulting in the potential for reduced visibilities in the immediate area, while winds aloft will transport smoke northeastward towards Salinas and Hollister. For air quality information, refer to products issued by the Monterey Bay Air Resources District. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1204 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 (Monday through Saturday) The pattern remains relatively stable through the rest of the forecast period. A developing low in the eastern Pacific will allow more of the troughing influence to arrive on Monday, causing temperatures to dip by around 3-6 degrees in the inland valleys (around the lower 80s to the lower 90s), before temperatures rebound on Tuesday and Wednesday due to the ridging reasserting itself, and remain remarkably close to today's forecast through the end of the 7- day outlook. The breezy afternoon and evening winds will continue to develop for coastal areas and through favored gaps and passes. Ensemble models and our colleagues at the National Hurricane Center continue to suggest the possibility for a couple of tropical systems to develop off the coast of Mexico through the next week. One such system could very well develop today. It's too early to say what the impacts of the system could be to the region, ranging from impacts to the large-scale pattern to the potential for tropical moisture flow towards our region. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Widespread VFR conditions prevail through much of the afternoon with gentle to moderate onshore breezes. IFR stratus will linger at HAF into the early afternoon as the mixing of dry air continues along the coast. The marine layer is expected to remain compressed around 1000 to 1200 feet tonight which will limit its inland expansion. High confidence for IFR to LIFR ceilings to develop at the coast with potential reductions to visibility. Medium confidence on STS developing IFR ceilings given the lack of weak offshore winds aloft. Overall, the wind flow above the marine layer will remain onshore through the TAF period. Despite this, medium confidence on whether APC will develop a ceiling given the shallow marine layer. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the day with onshore winds settling in this afternoon. Medium confidence on low-end MVFR ceilings developing at the terminals early Monday morning. Given the prominent onshore flow and shallow marine layer, a later stratus arrival is anticipated (09-12Z Monday). VFR conditions should prevail by late Monday morning. SFO Bridge Approach...Cloud cover overnight may be patchy over the San Mateo bridge as stratus coverage is not expected to travel far south into the Santa Clara valley. Otherwise, similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Northwest winds prevail at SNS through the TAF period meanwhile MRY remains more west to southwest. Gentle to moderate winds increase through the afternoon before easing and becoming variable overnight. Medium confidence for an earlier onset of stratus this evening around sunset with IFR-LIFR ceilings. Reductions to visibility due to mist are possible overnight with the compressed marine layer. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 920 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Northwest winds remain moderate through Sunday and gradually ease to gentle breezes through the middle of next week before increasing again. The northern outer waters will continue to experience near gale force gusts into the evening. Wind driven seas remain slight to moderate entering the work week. Reduced visibility due to smoke from the Timber Fire is expected along the Big Sur coast as the marine inversion holds through the morning. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Navarrete MARINE...Navarrete Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  151 FXUS63 KLBF 231856 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 156 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few strong thunderstorms are possible this evening, mainly west of Highway 83. Large hail, damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible. - Strong to severe storms will remain possible Monday and Tuesday, mainly during the late afternoon and evening hours. The area of concern will remain mainly west of Highway 83. - Periodic disturbances will move through northwest flow aloft, leading to daily chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Late this afternoon and tonight...an upper ridge will remain centered over New Mexico, with a west-northwest flow aloft across the Northern and Central Plains. A disturbance currently located over eastern WY will track southeast across southwest SD and the Nebr. panhandle late this afternoon, with isolated thunderstorms developing. With SBCAPEs exceeding 3500 J/kg west of Highway 61 and efffective bulk shear near 40kts, a few strong storms are possible late this afternoon and evening, mainly west of Highway 83. The severe threat would be large hail, damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rain, with the 18Z KLBF sounding indicating 1.57 inches PWAT. Elevated showers and a few storms will persist this afternoon into tonight across the east, mainly east of Highway 183. This will be where weak WAA exist near 700mb as a weak 700mb trough progresses eateward and the low level jet increases after midnight. Monday and Monday night...A surface trough is forecast to extend south to north along the eastern panhandle to along the leeside of the Black Hills by mid afternoon. Strong afternoon heating across the west with highs reaching the low to mid 90s. Isolated storms are shown to develop along this surface trough and move east and southeast during the late afternoon and evening hours. A few storms could be strong to severe with large hail with any isolated descrete storms into early evening. With time, storms may merge with cold pools, with damging winds and locally heavy rainfall becoming the primary severe threat into the evening hours. The area of greater concern will be for areas west of Valentine through Hayes Center, where SPC has a Slight Risk for severe storms. Instability will be adequate to around 2500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 40kts. Storms will gradually diminish and exit southeastern areas after midnight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Tuesday, the potential again for strong to severe storms. A warm front is shown to extend across the southern panhandle to near the NE/KS border. Moderate instability and 35KT of effective shear will be present to support scattered storms mainly south of HIghway 2. A Slight Risk for severe storms is forecast by SPC for areas generally south of I80. The active pattern continues Wednesday through Sunday, as an upper ridge center persists across AZ and NM. This will place the region in northwest flow aloft, favorable for evening and overnight convection. High temperatures will range mostly in the low to mid 80s Wednesday through Thursday, then heating into the low 90s western Sandhills and southwest Friday through Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue this afternoon into tonight east of the KLBF and KVTN terminals. Other isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and evening across the western Sandhills, and are expected to remain west of the terminals. At KLBF a southeast wind with gusts to 25KT are expected until 00Z, with light southeast winds below 12KT after 00Z and overnight. At KVTN, a southeast wind with gust to 25Kt this afternoon and evening, with a light southeast wind after 05Z. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Roberg