932 FXUS65 KPIH 232000 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 200 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight Risk Today (60–80 mph Severe Gusts): The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) maintains a Slight Risk across the southeast corner of the region—including the South Hills, lower Snake Plain, and southeast highlands toward Bear Lake. Steep lapse rates and high moisture will support severe downburst winds of 60 to 80 mph and localized small hail through late evening. - Repeat Threat Tomorrow: Near-identical synoptic conditions on Monday will keep scattered thunderstorm potential elevated across the same southeastern footprint, with localized damaging gusts remaining the primary hazard. - Mid-Week Ridge & Late-Week Wind Surge: High pressure rebuilds Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing above-normal temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s alongside isolated afternoon storms. A passing northern shortwave on Thursday and Friday will increase regional winds and moderate weekend temperatures back toward seasonal averages in the low-to-mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 156 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 An active afternoon and evening are expected across eastern Idaho as an unusually moist and unstable air mass remains entrenched across the southeastern portion of the forecast area. Surface temperatures climbing into the 80s paired with surface dewpoints in the mid-50s are providing sufficient thermodynamic instability for robust convective development. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) maintains a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms across the southeast corner, encompassing the South Hills, the lower Snake Plain, and the southeastern highlands around Bear Lake. Soundings reveal steep low-to-mid level lapse rates, creating an environment characterized by strong evaporative cooling within convective cores. Stronger thunderstorm cores and organized outflows will be capable of generating scattered severe wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph within the Slight Risk zone, with a lower but non-negligible wind threat extending across the rest of eastern Idaho. Small hail will also be possible within the strongest cores. High- resolution convective-allowing models (CAMs) show storm activity persisting through late evening before tapering off around midnight. Synoptically, Monday presents a near-identical setup. High- resolution model guidance targets the same general footprint across the South Hills, Snake Plain, and southeastern highlands for afternoon shower and thunderstorm coverage. SPC currently carries a Marginal Risk for severe gusts across the area. However, if daytime destabilization matches today's parameters, localized severe downburst wind gusts will once again be the primary operational threat. As the upper-level trough assisting current convective activity exits into Western Canada, high-pressure ridging will attempt to rebuild over the Great Basin Tuesday through mid-week. Residual low-level moisture trapped beneath the ridge axis will maintain low-end daily shower and thunderstorm chances. Afternoon maximum temperatures will run a few degrees above seasonal climatological norms, reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s across lower-elevation valleys. Heading into the late-week period, a shortwave trough tracking into Washington and British Columbia on Thursday will tighten regional pressure gradients, increasing wind speeds across eastern Idaho on Thursday and Friday. This northern feature will partially suppress the Great Basin ridge Friday into the weekend, potentially lowering valley temperatures back toward seasonal benchmarks in the low-to-mid 80s. However, considerable spread remains among model ensemble guidance regarding the exact magnitude of this weekend cooling trend.&& .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1107 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Today's rounds of showers and thunderstorms will mainly affect areas along and south of the Snake River. We carried over PROB30 with MVFR and gusts to 50kts from the previous forecast, with SUN not seeing any development at this point. This should continue into the early to mid evening hours before tapering off. There COULD be some showers pushing far enough north tonight and Monday morning to impact BYI and PIH, but for now we are keeping that out of this round of TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 156 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Another day with monsoon moisture across Idaho means another day with showers and thunderstorms. We will see isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains (Zone 476) and along the Montana border for Zone 411. There is a 10-40% chance for gusts over 35 mph. There is a better chance south of the Snake River across Zones 427 and 413, although coverage remains borderline for scattered and Red Flag Warning thresholds. Down south is also where we expect for a slightly higher chance for wetting rainfall, but it is still only 15-30%. There is also a 50-90% chance for gusts over 35 mph. Any thunderstorms today have the potential for gusts over 60 mph, similar to yesterday, but the chance for those types of gusts is highest down south. While there is no strong indication outflow boundaries or storms are expected across Zones 410 and 425, we will be watching for that as well. Outside of storms and outflow potential, gusty winds will develop across the central mountains(422/475/476), the Arco Desert and Upper Snake Plain (410) and along the Montana border (411). Gusts in the 25-40 mph range are expected. There will be pockets of lower humidity (around or below 15%), but the potential looks too sporadic for widespread critical conditions and Red Flag Warnings. Monsoon moisture spreads back north across eastern Idaho tonight and tomorrow. We will be borderline again across Zones 413 and 427 tomorrow for scattered coverage. We expect isolated storms across a good chunk of eastern Idaho, outside of Zone 475. The chance of wetting rain is similar to today (15-30%) but the footprint is a bit bigger overall, but still look for a mix of wet and dry storms. There is a less than 50% chance for gusts over 35 mph closer to the Montana border, but 70- 90% across the rest of eastern Idaho where storms develop, with a distinct possibility again for gusts over 60 mph with stronger storms and outflow boundaries. The risk of showers and storms continues until the end of the week. We may see another low pass to our north, which would suppress deeper moisture to south of the Snake Plain over the weekend. Right now, there is quite a range on what might have with the storm track, and the Blend of Models does include a few showers and storms across a good portion of eastern Idaho especially on Saturday. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McKaughan AVIATION...Keyes FIRE WEATHER...Keyes  962 FXUS65 KPSR 232000 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 100 PM MST Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, some strong to severe, are expected this evening across south-central Arizona. - Increasingly less favorable conditions for thunderstorms will develop starting Monday with virtually no chances for rain from Tuesday through the rest of the week. - High temperatures will reach or exceed 110 degrees nearly every day this week and will be near daily records, while morning lows remain unusually warm. - Extreme Heat Warnings are in effect through Saturday with daily Major to Extreme HeatRisk. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Some upper level jet support and mid-level gravity waves helped spark off a line of high-based scattered showers and storms across southwest AZ this morning. This activity has since weakened and dissipated. Surface-based moisture has also increased across southwest AZ and areas south of I-8. Dew point temperatures at midday in Yuma County to western Pima County were up to 65-75 degrees. This moisture return in southern AZ will likely help fuel later afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Overall, model guidance still suggests this afternoon through this evening becoming a somewhat busy monsoon period. Outside of southern AZ, where the best moisture return was, boundary layer conditions remain similar to the past couple of days with sub-optimal moisture (mixing ratios around 8 g/kg) and limited instability (few hundred J/kg MLCAPE). Initially through much of, if not all of, this afternoon storms should favor higher terrain areas, including portions of La Paz County, and it may even look like it will not become active at all. However, hi-res guidance continues to show the best time period for activity across south-central AZ coming around and after sunset. Guidance shows storms being a bit slower to develop in Pima County, but when they do they do they will have the best potential to become strong to severe, tapping into the best moisture and instability. The storms to the south this evening will then be capable of pushing one or multiple strong and dusty outflows northward into south-central AZ, which may then trigger additional storms. Some hi-res model runs also suggest outflow collisions may occur, with outflows also from the north, but confidence in outflows coming down from northern AZ is low. Additionally, there are indications the storms to the south may develop into an MCV and track northward through Phoenix this evening. Strong to locally severe wind gusts will be the primary weather hazards, with very high DCAPE values up to 1800-2000 J/kg. Localized flash flooding may also become a threat with any slow-moving storms or training of storms, with the best potential southwest of Phoenix where moisture will be highest. Convective chances for Monday are even more uncertain as guidance generally shows at most a 10% chance despite moisture and instability being better than today. However, subsidence will be much stronger on Monday as the subtropical ridge begins to move westward back into our region. We will have to wait until tonight to have a better idea on the storm potential for Monday, but it does seem to be considerably lower than this afternoon/evening. Temperatures today will again be right near record highs with lower desert readings from 110-115 degrees. The increased boundary layer moisture expected for Monday should hold daytime highs down a bit with NBM forecast highs currently between 106-111 degrees, but heat indices will mostly match what are expected today. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecast attention turns away from monsoon storm potential and back toward the extreme heat conditions starting Tuesday. The subtropical high center will continue to shift westward into our region into the middle part of the week with the center likely settling somewhere over southern Arizona from Wednesday through at least Friday or Saturday. Forecast H5 heights are also shown to reach 594-597dm for the latter half of the week which places it just shy of climatological records for late August. NBM temperature guidance remains quite consistent showing highs rising into a 112-116 degree range for the latter half of this week as conditions dry out. Daily temperature records in Phoenix will continue to be in jeopardy through the entire week, but are likely to fall short in Yuma and El Centro. Once the high center moves overhead by Wednesday, rain chances will essentially go to 5% or less. As of now, conditions for any monsoon storm activity do not look good through next weekend. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1800Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: The potential for multiple outflow boundaries resulting in sudden, gusty wind shifts this evening, as well as SHRA/TSRA developing in the Phoenix Airspace presents the greatest weather issue during this TAF period. Winds will favor E/SE late this morning followed likely by a period of VRB winds before shifting out of a prevailing westerly direction by 20-22Z this afternoon. TS over the northern and eastern AZ high terrain are likely to send a first outflow towards the lower elevations late this afternoon/early this evening, which would cause a sudden wind shift out of a N/NE'rly direction. A cluster of strong storms is then expected to develop over western Pima, southwestern Pinal, and/or southern Maricopa Counties this evening, which would likely send a second, stronger outflow across the terminals from the S/SW. This second outflow may cause temporary surface VIS restrictions due to blowing dust and more prolonged slantwise VIS issues if rain does not follow. Chances for SHRA/TSRA remain around 20-30% across the terminals this evening, and so have included this in PROB30 groups between 04-07Z. The wind forecast is very low confidence this evening into the overnight hours due to the possible influence of multiple outflows, and gusty, erratic winds are expected if SHRA/TSRA develop near the terminals. Cloud bases will remain mostly above 10 kft AGL through the period. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation concerns are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds at KIPL will favor southeasterly directions. TS activity over the Baja spine may send an southwesterly outflow into KIPL by the late afternoon hours, with a less than 20% chance for direct TS impacts. KBLH will swing between south to SW'rly winds, with occasional gusts to around 20 kts. There is also a low chance (less than 10%) for SHRA/TSRA conditions at KBLH, particularly during the overnight period. FEW-SCT mid and high level cloud decks will be common through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot temperatures will prevail through the entire week with shower thunderstorm chances mainly today and possibly Monday. Strong gusty winds will be possible late this afternoon and evening with any thunderstorms, while chances for wetting rains will remain below 20%. Minimum RHs will improve through Monday with readings of 15-25% today and 20-30% Monday, before dropping back into the teens into the middle part of the week. Temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees above normal, with lower desert highs eclipsing 110 degrees nearly every afternoon. Outside of thunderstorm outflow winds, winds will follow the typical diurnal tendencies with some modest afternoon upslope gustiness. && .CLIMATE... Record highs: Date Phoenix Yuma El Centro ---- ------- ------------- Aug 23 114 in 2011 115 in 2011 116 in 1969 Aug 24 115 in 2020 119 in 1985 117 in 1985 Aug 25 113 in 2011 116 in 1962 117 in 1962 Aug 26 117 in 2011 115 in 2020 115 in 1981 Aug 27 114 in 2023 120 in 1981 117 in 1981 Aug 28 117 in 2023 118 in 2023 117 in 2009 Aug 29 116 in 2023 117 in 1954 117 in 2005 && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Saturday for AZZ530>555-559- 560. CA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ562-565>567- 569-570. && $$ SHORT TERM...Benedict/Kuhlman LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...Whittock FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman CLIMATE...18/Kuhlman  204 FXUS64 KMAF 232003 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 303 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 216 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Hot temperatures continue through midweek with record heat possible on Monday. - The prolonged period of hot temperatures could result in heat related illnesses. Be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in air conditioning or the shade if possible. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Upper-level high on the order of 597-598 dm has become centered over southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon. This feature will remain firmly planted over our region through Monday and will result in continued hot temperatures and dry conditions with near record heat possible Monday afternoon. High temperatures will range between 103-108 degrees across the western Low Rolling Plains, much of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, Trans Pecos, and areas along the Rio Grande. These readings will be within our Heat Advisory criteria range over portions of southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin, and once again into the western Low Rolling Plains, so we have issued a Heat Advisory product for these locations from noon-8 PM CDT (11 AM - 7 PM MDT) Monday. The August 24th record high temperature at Midland is 103 degrees, which was set in 1936 and there is a good chance we will at least tie, if not break that record (the latest forecast calls for 103-104 degrees in the Midland/Odessa area). Early morning lows may briefly drop into the mid to upper 70s, but a few places may not get below 80. Stay hydrated and keep in the air conditioning or shade if possible. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Upper-level high pressure will remain in place across our region through Tuesday before perhaps retrograding slightly westward over the Desert Southwest by mid to late week. Hot temperatures will persist through Wednesday with highs each day continuing to range between 100-106 over much of the region. The highest readings will impact the northeast Basin/western Low Rolling Plains and locations along the Pecos River Valley and Rio Grande. Overnight lows mostly range in the 70s, except for readings in the 60s over higher elevation areas. Shortwave impulses embedded within the northwest flow aloft on the eastern side of the ridge could bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to portions of the area Wednesday into Thursday, with rain chances up to 30-40% over portions of southeast New Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin by Wednesday evening. Temperatures remain above normal Thursday-Saturday with some locations near or above the century mark. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions continue at all terminals. Southerly winds between 10-15kts with occasional gusts up to 20kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 79 106 76 105 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 73 105 75 104 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 76 104 74 103 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 75 103 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 70 96 72 97 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 73 104 72 103 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 65 97 64 97 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 78 103 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 78 104 77 102 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 76 106 76 104 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for Andrews-Borden- Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Martin-Midland- Mitchell-Scurry-Winkler. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Borden-Howard- Mitchell-Scurry. NM...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Monday for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Southern Lea. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...93  246 FXUS65 KPUB 232004 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 204 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scatted to numerous showers and storms expected this evening, especially across the plains. - Showers and storms expected each day of the upcoming week, though with a downtick in activity for the later part of the week. - Flash flooding will be a concern for the first half of the week, especially across the Aspen Acres burn scar. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 203 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Tonight: For Sunday night, active weather continues for portions of south central and southeastern Colorado. A ridge of high pressure will be remain in place just south of the area, with rich monsoon moisture streaming up and around this feature and into the area. This moisture tap, along with influence from vort maxes and shortwaves, will help showers and storms ongoing during the late afternoon to push across the plains through late evening to early overnight. While shear will be lackluster, a couple of strong storms will be possible given increased CAPE values. The strongest storms may be capable of producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding, along with gusty outflow winds to around 55 mph from wet microburst/heavy water laden downdrafts. Along with that, given the moisture in place, showers may continue to fester across the higher terrain and valleys into the late evening. With that all said, showers and storms are expected to dissipate by the mid overnight hours, with dry conditions by tomorrow morning. Outside of all of that, with the pattern in place, winds are expected to remain light outside of storms, less than 10 mph, with pockets of clouds persisting through much of the evening and overnight hours. Looking at temperatures, another warm and above seasonal lows night is anticipated given the moisture and cloud cover. The plains will cool into the 60s, the valleys into the upper 40s to upper 50s, and the mountains into the low 40s to mid 50s. Tomorrow: Heading into Monday, another similar day to the past couple is expected for south central and southeastern Colorado. The high pressure will continue to sit south of the area, and continue to stream deep moisture up and around and into the region. Again, with influences from vort maxes and shortwaves, another round afternoon showers and storms is anticipated, with initial development along the higher terrain, and increasing in coverage across the valleys and plains heading into mid to later afternoon. Heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and strong outflow winds to around 50-55 mph will be possible with any stronger storms. Beyond of all that, also similar to the past couple of days, winds will remain light, around 10 mph, outside of influences from storms, with clouds increasing in coverage through the afternoon hours. As for temperatures, another warm and above seasonal day is anticipated. The plains will warm into the 90s, the valleys into the 80s, and the mountains into the mid 50s and upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 203 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Monday Night - Saturday: For the rest of the forecast period, active weather continues for south central and southeastern Colorado, though with a downtick in activity heading into the later part of the week. The stubborn high pressure will remain in place through at least the first half of the week, bringing additional abundant moisture. This moisture, along with any vort maxes and short waves, will bring additional days with afternoon and evening showers and storms, with the greatest coverage Tuesday and Wednesday. Then heading into the later part of the week, the high pressure is expected to drift southward and flatten out. This will eventually cut-off the deeper moisture tap, with showers and storms decreasing in coverage past Wednesday, but especially Friday and Saturday. Otherwise, winds continue to remain relatively light, with increased cloud cover expected each afternoon. As for temperatures, while a dip is expected midweek, temperatures remain warm and mostly above seasonal values, especially heading into next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1122 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Outside of thunderstorms, winds are expected to remain relatively light, around and less than 10 knots, with only occasional gusts 15 to 20 knots. Dry conditions at the start of this TAF period will give way to storms this afternoon and early evening. Storms may bring periods of heavy rainfall, reduced visibility, gusty outflow winds, small hail, and frequent lightning to any of the TAF sites. Otherwise, mid to high level clouds will increase in coverage today, with a decreasing in coverage overnight and into tomorrow morning. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080- 086. Flash Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for COZ079-080-086. && $$ SHORT TERM...SIMCOE LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...SIMCOE  042 FXUS61 KCAR 232014 CCA AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Caribou ME 414 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased fog tonight (Sunday night) and Monday night. Increased chances for strong to possibly locally severe thunderstorms across the interior Tuesday afternoon. Increased confidence in strong convection Friday afternoon/evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Areas of dense fog tonight (Sunday night), and possibly again Monday night. Fog will impact travel conditions. 2) Chance of showers persists late this (Sunday) afternoon through Monday afternoon, with possibly thunderstorms in Northern Maine Monday afternoon. 3) Chance of showers and thunderstorms north of Bangor Tuesday and mainly across northern Aroostook Wednesday. 4) Thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening, some of which may be locally strong with gusty winds and small hail. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Areas of dense fog tonight (Sunday night), and possibly again Monday night. Fog will impact travel conditions. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Fog is the main concern. Dense fog was present Sunday morning especially near the coast. With the airmass getting even a bit moister, think that tonight will be a repeat performance, except areas further inland will have a better shot at getting the fog. The best chance of the dense fog is near the Downeast fog, but can't rule out significant fog further inland too. The fog should generally dissipate during the day Monday, but fog appears likely again Monday night. There may be a slightly later onset to the fog in the evening Monday compared to this (Sunday) evening, but still think the fog could be locally dense by later Monday night. KEY MESSAGE 2... Chance of showers persists late this (Sunday) afternoon through Monday afternoon, with possibly thunderstorms in Northern Maine Monday afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... As of 2pm Sunday afternoon, lots of clouds and low-level moisture, but not much more than drizzle. There are some heavier showers/storms south of our area that will move north into especially eastern portions of our area and bring another shot of showers later this afternoon into the evening. Can't rule out an embedded storm and some heavier downpours, but nothing remotely strong for thunderstorms, and no flooding, with a few places getting another quarter inch of rain or a bit more. Probably some drying later tonight into Monday morning, but with a bit of clearing, expect enough instability to showers and storms to fire off by about midday. Scattered showers/storms are expected, with the best chance being inland away from the more stable marine layer. That said, even in the wetter north, only going with a 40-60 percent chance of showers/storms, best chance in the western North Woods. Monday won't be a rainout by any means. Can't rule out a couple of the storms being on the stronger side with gusty winds, but this is a pretty minimal threat, and there is some uncertainty how many storms can fire in the first place. KEY MESSAGE 3... Chance of showers and thunderstorms north of Bangor Tuesday and mainly across northern Aroostook Wednesday. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... The axis of an upper level closed low that is gradually weakening as it passes to the north, then northeast Tuesday- Wednesday, should bring with it sufficient instability in the low-mid levels with its associated cold-pool aloft, that is should produce scattered to potentially numerous showers and isolated to scattered showers areawide on Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon, low to mid level lapse rates should be around 8-8.5C/km, with a few hundred J/kg of CAPE and around 35-45 kt of bulk shear. This should produce some strong to locally severe storms across the region north ofBangor. Wet bulb zero heights are around 7500-8500 ft away from the coast so the greatest risk would be small to possibly marginally severe hail. On Wednesday,as the upper low weakens and retreats to the northeast, the threat will be limited to the North, with low level lapse rates around 7.5-8 C/km, around 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE and around 20-30 kt of shear. Once again strong to possibly locally severe storms are possible with mainly isolated storms across northern Aroostook. The wetbulb zero height is a little higher 8500-9000 J/kg, but still low enough to support hail. With the stronger CAPE, the main threat is both strong winds and small to marginally severe hail in the strongest convection across the North on Wednesday. KEY MESSAGE 4... Thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening, some of which may be locally strong side with gusty winds and small hail. KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION... A cold front crosses the area Friday afternoon and evening on the leading edge of a full latitude trough pushing into the region, with the added support of a northern stream shortwave pushing through the trough around that time. With the potential for 500-1500 J/kg of CAPE and 25-35KT of bulk shear, there is a risk of some locally strong thunderstorms ahead of the front, with the main threat strong gusty winds. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Rest of Today...Mainly IFR with a intermittent MVFR possible. SE/W wind 5-10 kts. Can't rule out a storm after 21z, but not enough confidence to put in any TAFs. Tonight...Conditions deteriorating to LIFR or lower at all terminals with low clouds and fog. Fairly high confidence in these low conditions. Light winds. Monday...Conditions improving to VFR for most places by 18z, though MVFR/IFR could persist near the coast. Possibly an afternoon storm at northern terminals. S wind increasing to around 10 kts. Monday Night...Conditions deteriorating to IFR or lower at all terminals. Not as high of confidence in the poor conditions as for tonight, but still at least 60 percent confidence in IFR prevailing. Light winds. Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible in any stronger convection north of KBGR. Chance of MVFR or lower early Tuesday morning at all terminals in low ceilings and/or fog. Tuesday night: VFR. Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible in any stronger convection at KFVE/KCAR/KPQI, otherwise VFR. Wednesday night-Thursday night: VFR. LLWS possible Thursday night. Friday: VFR in the morning, then MVFR or lower possible in any showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon. LLWS possible. S winds G15-20KT possible. && .MARINE... Fog over the waters through Monday night. S/SE winds 15 kts or less and seas 2-4 ft. A few storms possible over the waters late this afternoon into early this evening. Sustained winds of 15 kt or less and seas of 4 ft or less are forecast on all waters out to 60NM from Tuesday through Friday. There is a chance for dense fog on the waters Tuesday morning, reducing visibility to less than 1 nm. There is the chance for thunderstorms over the waters late on Friday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TF/PM AVIATION...TF/PM  072 FXUS65 KBOI 232014 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 214 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms in southern areas Monday afternoon and early evening. - Little chance of thunderstorms the rest of the week, except a slight chance in the central ID mountains Wednesday afternoon, and near the NV/ID border Friday-Sunday afternoons. - Warming Monday and Tuesday, holding level Wednesday, then gradually cooling the rest of the week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday Night/... Thunderstorm threat shifting out of Twin Falls County late today then dry through the night. Mid-high level moisture will increase from the southwest overnight and Monday morning with scattered thunderstorms developing by noon in Twin Falls County, early afternoon in Owyhee County, and mid afternoon in southeast Oregon, lasting until sunset. Clouds will increase but storms should stay south of the Snake River in ID, and south of Burns- Ontario in OR. Monday will also be 4 to 8 degrees warmer than today even with increasing clouds, as a short wave ridge aloft comes in from northern California. The ridge and thunderstorms will exit Monday night but further slight warming will continue Tuesday, with high temps reaching the mid-upper 90s in the Snake Basin and 85 to 95 elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/... Generally dry and breezy conditions will persist throughout much of the long-term period. Lingering moisture will allow for a 15-30% chance of precipitation and a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, mainly near the ID/NV border and the Central ID Mountains. Beyond Wednesday, troughing off of the west coast will push the moisture south and east of our area. Height falls throughout the period will allow for a slight cooling trend, with temperatures 2-7 degrees above normal throughout the period. Uncertainty begins to increase late this week, following the lifting of the initial trough and associated frontal passage. However, cluster analysis is leaning towards troughing digging back down into the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z Sunday through Monday/... Issued 1130 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026 VFR. Isolated thunderstorms south and east of KTWF this afternoon. Thunderstorms capable of outflows of 30-40 kt. Surface winds: W-NW 10-20 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 10-25 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: NW 7-12 kt with gusts to around 18 kt this afternoon. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for IDZ423-426. OR...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for ORZ670>672. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....NF AVIATION.....NF  221 FXUS63 KJKL 232019 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 419 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Noticeably less humid air will continue to prevail early this week, with below normal morning lows. - Temperatures and humidity will increase Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the next cold front, leading to a potential for thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 419 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Largely stacked low pressure just north of the Great Lakes late today will weaken and lift northeast through Monday night. Meanwhile, surface high pressure currently over the mid Mississippi Valley will drift to the Ohio Valley. As this happens, our current inflow of cooler and drier low level air around the high will ease and our upper level flow upstream will flatten. Even though cool/dry advection will taper off, air mass modification will hold off during the short term, which will afford us below normal lows both nights. The flattening upper level flow may allow some high clouds to spill through upstream ridging Monday night, but any clouds i our skies shouldn't have much impact on our temperatures. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 323 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 The long term period begins Tuesday with a subtropical ridge and closed 500 mb high ranging from 594-597 dm centered over the Four Corners region. Elsewhere, an upper-level trough is modeled across the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and New England. Across eastern Kentucky, Tuesday will be fair and quiet with dew points in the 50s, and temperatures in the mid 80s feeling a bit less humid compared to previous days. Overnight, light winds and clear skies may aid in patchy valley fog developing in typical favored river valley locations. With valleys possibly decoupling at night, temperatures in the valleys may cool into the mid to upper 50s, while ridgetops cool into the upper 50s to low 60s, Tuesday night. An upper low modeled over southern Manitoba will progress southeast overnight, ending up in the Upper Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. A surface low will also form in the Great Lakes vicinity. Some high and mid-level clouds may work into the area through Wednesday in advance of the approaching system. By Wednesday evening, as a surface cold front extends from the Great Lakes southwestward through the Ohio Valley and Ozarks, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Wednesday night into Thursday, peaking Thursday ahead of the frontal passage. By Friday, the cold front is expected to have passed east of the Commonwealth, with the trough axis shifting east of the forecast area Friday into Saturday, leaving broad troughing across the eastern US. Lingering moisture along the departing trough may support isolated shower and storm chances Friday afternoon along the VA/KY border. Model and ensemble agreement is poor by next weekend. However, deterministic guidance diverges, with one scenario depicting a shortwave progressing through the Central Plains into portions of the Mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys by Saturday evening into Sunday, which would lead to another round of showers and storms across the area on Sunday. Conversely, an alternate scenario tracks the shortwave farther north into the Ohio Valley. NBM has maintained low-end isolated PoPs for Sunday (15-20%) to reflect this low-confidence scenario. Temperatures should remain slightly above normal for this time of year, in the mid to upper 80s. The CPC 6-10 day outlook supports this thinking. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026 Valley fog is forecast for overnight and early Monday. It will bring localized IFR or worse conditions, probably affecting a few TAF sites at times around dawn. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...HAL  446 FXUS64 KEPZ 232025 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 225 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 225 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Above normal temperatures across southern New Mexico and far west Texas through the week ahead. Lowland highs will range upper 90s to 105, which will approach daily records. - Very limited thunderstorm chances in the mountains for today and Monday. Dry elsewhere. - Chances for thunderstorms will improve Thursday into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Another multi-day break in the monsoon is underway. 18Z RAOBS place the subtropical high right in between ABQ and EPZ, with both recording 500mb heights of 5980m. Additional horrid stats from EPZ include a temperature of -4C at 500mb (in the middle of a sharp inversion, and a PWAT of 0.84 inches. Meanwhile, at the surface, dewpoints have mixed out into the mid-30s across much of the lowlands, including LRU, ALM, and DNA. HRRR still holds out hope for a few isolated convective showers with maybe some thunder over the Gila or Sacramento Mountains, and radar shows a few minimal blips west of the Black Range. But coverage will be very minimal. Temperatures should still top out around 101-103 at ELP, with similar temperatures tomorrow. Ensembles suggest we'll peak on Tuesday with a high around 104-106. Record highs for ELP the next few days rise slowly with the forecast, but are still within range. Sun 23 - 103 (2024) // fcst 102 Mon 24 - 102 (1993) // fcst 102 Tue 25 - 104 (2002) // fcst 104 Wed 26 - 106 (2019) // fcst 103 Thu 27 - 103 (2019) // fcst 102 The subtropical ridge will drift east over the next couple of days before slowly retracing its steps, then settling closer to the AZ/NM border by Wednesday. This will allow for northerly flow aloft to develop, bringing weak disturbances and some recycled upper level moisture into the area, increasing the risk of thunderstorms again. Low level moisture will struggle to recover until Thursday, so lowland precip chances will lag the higher terrain. Temperatures will hover near or just above 100 through the rest of the month. Our record for number of days in August with highs 100+ at El Paso currently sits at 20 (set in 2020). We have a shot at beating this record. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions with light winds, favoring SE to S in the afternoon, and drainage flows at night. Thunderstorm chances almost nil through the next 24 to 48 hours at all terminals. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 225 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Hot and dry conditions will persist through the weekend, with very low chances for a pop-up shower or thunderstorm in the Gila and Sacramentos for the remainder of the afternoon and Monday afternoon. Isolated dry lightning strikes are possible. Minimum RH values will drop just below 10 percent in the lowlands the next few afternoons, while the forested high elevations hold onto 15 to 25%. Winds will remain light. An uptick in thunderstorms, mainly in the higher terrain, is expected Wednesday, and another tick higher Thursday, as the upper ridge drifts west of the area again, opening us up to weak disturbances aloft dropping in from the north. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 75 102 75 104 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 70 99 72 101 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 67 101 70 103 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 72 100 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 60 78 64 79 / 10 10 0 10 Truth or Consequences 72 100 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 64 94 65 96 / 0 10 0 0 Deming 70 102 72 104 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 65 100 66 102 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 75 103 77 105 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 64 102 68 104 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 71 106 73 108 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 68 96 69 98 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 73 103 74 107 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 72 101 74 106 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 75 103 76 105 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 68 101 71 103 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 68 104 71 106 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 70 102 76 104 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 67 100 71 102 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 58 91 62 92 / 0 0 0 10 Mescalero 57 89 59 90 / 10 10 0 20 Timberon 55 87 60 88 / 0 0 0 10 Winston 61 91 65 93 / 0 20 0 0 Hillsboro 70 99 74 100 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 68 100 71 102 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 52 92 55 93 / 10 20 10 10 Hurley 65 97 68 99 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 64 101 67 103 / 10 10 0 0 Mule Creek 58 97 60 99 / 10 10 0 0 Faywood 68 97 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 68 101 71 103 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 68 99 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 67 99 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 63 94 66 96 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...25-Hardiman  837 FXUS65 KGGW 232032 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 232 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms begin this evening bringing strong winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall. - Cold front tonight will bring gusty NW winds on Monday. - Warm and dry conditions resume Tuesday as the western ridge rebounds. && .DISCUSSION... WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper ridge over eastern Montana overnight will move east today while an upper trough moves in from the Pacific NW tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will move through the forecast area today as the ridge axis moves east and a weak shortwave ahead of the upper trough moves through the ridge. Ample midlevel monsoonal moisture will begin streaming into eastern Montana and with high PWATs possible, some storms could produce heavy rain. The upper trough will knock down the ridge tonight with another round of storms. Strong winds aloft will increase vertical wind shear and coupled with moist, unstable air will bring increased severe risk. Any storms that develop may produce damaging winds and large hail. All thunderstorms have lightning, which may pose a risk of fire starts. Gusty southeast winds overnight will diminish this morning which will allow the Lake Wind Advisory to expire 3 AM. Cold front moves through the area tonight and will bring gusty NW winds on Monday with cooler temperatures. A Lake Wind Advisory may be needed for Fort Peck Lake on Monday. Ridge rebounds starting on Tuesday in the wake of the departing trough to bring dry conditions with temperatures slightly above normal. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Made tweaks to PoPs and thunder chances today and tonight. No other changes to NBM. Confidence for storm chances is high today and tonight, though timing, severity and exact location of strongest storms remains uncertain. && .AVIATION... UPDATED: 1930Z FLIGHT CONDITION: VFR. MVFR to IFR in stronger storms. DISCUSSION: After 00z this evening, showers and thunderstorms will move east through the area tonight. Some storms today and tonight could become severe with large hail and wind gusts over 50 knots. WINDS: East to SE at 5 to 15 knots most of today becoming variable late this afternoon and remaining variable at 10 knots or less tonight. Any thunderstorm that passes over TAF sites could have strong, erratic wind gusts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Seasonably hot temperatures with a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are expected through tomorrow. Strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon will bring gusty, erratic winds and frequent lightning. Though min RH values in the 20-40% range and good overnight recovery will mitigate fire weather concerns. Warm and dry conditions are expected to resume Tuesday. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone- Petroleum. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow  921 FXUS66 KSGX 232033 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 133 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Monsoonal moisture will decrease this weekend, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for the mountains and lower deserts returning for Monday afternoon. Above average high and low temperatures will continue through next week. Widespread moderate to locally major HeatRisk for the coast, valleys, and mountains except near the beaches and for the higher elevations in the mountains, with major to extreme HeatRisk for the lower deserts. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... This morning's marine layer was very shallow - around 500 ft deep - with areas of fog between I-5 and I-15. Otherwise, yet another day of summer sunshine is in store for the region with a few cirrus clouds passing by. Low clouds are expected to redevelop later this evening, bringing patchy dense fog to coastal areas and western valleys overnight tonight. The marine layer will compress even more throughout next week, yielding overnight fog mainly to coastal areas and perhaps down to the beaches. While southwesterly flow aloft is not the most ideal setup for monsoonal moisture, thunderstorm chances return for early this week. Pulses of higher PWAT's above 1.3 inches are forecast to move over our mountains early Monday through Tuesday afternoon. While some long range models continue to show no precip throughout the week, high resolution guidance such as the RREF, HRRR and HiRes-FV3 show scattered thunderstorms Monday afternoon, yielding around a 20-35% chance for a shower/t-storm for a given area over the mountains and adjacent desert slopes. Chances drop to 10-20% Tuesday afternoon and drop further thereafter, though chances may increase again for late week if PWAT's rebound as the ECMWF is forecasting. Temperatures are still on track to increase Monday through Wednesday, yielding temperatures generally 8 to 12 degrees above average - backing off slightly from yesterday's forecast. Nevertheless, Major HeatRisk is on track to expand all the way to coastal areas by late week as highs inland range from 95-107 degrees F with nighttime low only dropping to the mid-70s (above the very thin inversion a few-hundred feet above sea level). The low deserts are consistently expected to see highs of 110-115F Tuesday through Friday along with Major/Extreme HeatRisk. While highs in coastal areas mid-late week will mainly remain below 90 degrees F, overnight temperatures will struggle to drop below the lower 70s, which will especially affect those without access to air conditioning. The Heat Advisory remains in effect for inland areas through 10 AM Tuesday, followed by an Extreme Heat Watch through Friday 8 PM for the whole region (except for the lower deserts which are already in an Extreme Heat Warning through Friday evening). Confidence is low at this point, though both the ECMWF and GFS show a weakening of the Four Corners ridge, and thus potentially less hot temperatures, starting next Sunday. Take breaks in the shade, hydrate and seek A/C when possible! && .AVIATION... 231700Z...Coast...Low clouds and locally dense fog linger along the immediate coast in San Diego County. Moderate confidence in cigs and vis at the immediate coast clearing 20Z Sun-00Z Mon. Moderate confidence in cigs impacting coastal SD between 10-15Z Mon with bases 200-800ft MSL. Lowered vis 1-3 SM expected with vis less than 1 SM near higher coastal terrain. Low clouds and vis restrictions may linger along the immediate coast after 15Z Mon. Otherwise...VFR conditions through the TAF period with FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20,000ft MSL after 20Z.&& .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Friday. && .BEACHES... A 4-5 foot southerly swell (from 170 degrees) at 13-15 seconds will move into the area Wednesday and Thursday, leading to elevated surf for the south facing beaches of northern San Diego County and Orange County. Breaking waves of 4 to 6 feet expected, sets up to 8 feet possible at beaches that face due south. Surf gradually subsides on Friday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Friday evening for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Orange County Coastal Areas- Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys- Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Heat Advisory until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for Coachella Valley- San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Westerink AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...CO  319 FXUS65 KTWC 232043 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 143 PM MST Sun Aug 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms through Monday, then reduced storm chances through much of the remainder of the work week. Strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will be possible with any thunderstorm. High temperatures will remain well above normal through the week with an Extreme Heat Warning in effect for much of southeast Arizona. && .DISCUSSION... The Gulf Surge continues this hour with breezy S/SW winds across the lower deserts west of Tucson. TDs have eclipse 70 degrees in far western Pima County with with low to mid 60s for portions of Pima County (west of Tucson) and Santa Cruz. Across the metro, TDs are in the 50s to lower 60s. This will set the stage for a rather robust T'storm day. The question will be where and the intensity. Looking over the most current MesoA and CAMs, point to areas across western and central Pima and Santa Cruz Cos. One or more clusters, potentially forming into a N/NW moving MCS is possible. Main threats will be strong gusty winds to 60 mph, especially across central Pima Co where the HREF has a 10% prob of gusts in excess of 58 mph. Secondary threat will be a localized flash flood threat where heavier rainfall rates are realized and any backbuilding/cell mergers in the deeper moisture from the gulf surge. For the Tucson Metro, coverage will be more isolated in nature. Any convection will evolve off the higher terrain and/or OFB interaction likely from storms south and/or southwest of the City. Coverage is even less further east where drier air resides. The Monsoon still looks to a downturn with much of the region dry through most of the work week. Best opportunity (10-30%) daily will be along the International Border and the White Mtns. By Friday, there could be an expansion in coverage for most of SEAZ to see at least isolated activity. Heat remains front and center through the week, with widespread Major Heatrisk with areas of Extreme. The Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through Saturday evening, with most of Santa Cruz and Cochise Cos starting Tuesday. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Generally FEW-SCT clouds 9-13k ft AGL through the forecast period with locally BKN clouds between 23/21Z and 24/09Z. Expect isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA this afternoon into evening, mainly west of a KFHU-KSAD line, diminishing by 24/06Z. Currently VCTS for KTUS/KOLS in the TAFs at this time. Gusts in excess of 40 kts are expected with the stronger storms. Otherwise surface winds light and terrain driven. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected through Monday, with the exception of along the NM border where mainly dry conditions are expected. Thereafter, reduced chances for thunderstorm activity for most of southeast Arizona for the rest of the work week, though some isolated storms will continue along the immediate Int'l border and White Mountain region. Temperatures will remain well above normal through most of the week with Monday being the coolest day of the period. Drier conditions will return in the middle of the week with minimum relative humidity values mainly 10-18 percent in the valleys and 20-30 percent in the mountains. Winds will generally remain less than 15 mph and terrain driven through the week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Saturday for AZZ501-502- 504>506-509. Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM MST Saturday for AZZ503-507-508. && $$ Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson  472 FXUS66 KLOX 232047 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 147 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS...23/1251 PM. Very hot temperatures are expected this week with highs 6-12 degrees above normal. Patchy night through morning low clouds and fog will be confined to coastal areas, mainly north of Point Conception. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...23/142 PM. All signs still pointing towards a very hot week, especially south of Pt Conception. The combination of strong high pressure aloft, weakening onshore flow, and much warmer than normal ocean temperatures will create a long duration heat event, during which several daily records will likely be broken. The warmer than normal SST's will primarily impact the overnight temperatures, keeping those higher than normal and hindering any beneficial cooling. Heat advisories are in affect for most areas south of Pt Conception through Monday night with minimal changes in temperatures Monday over today. However, models have been consistent showing a 2-5 degree increase in highs Tuesday and Wednesday pushing some areas into the major heat risk category. The biggest factor determining which areas get upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning will be the pressure gradients and will wait to see how those look with Monday's model runs. Currently there is a 30-40% chance of highs of 110 or higher in the San Fernando Valley and a 50% chance of highs of 100 or higher in Downtown LA. For the Central Coast, the case for heat advisories is not as strong though by Tuesday or Wednesday low end advisories would likely be appropriate for inland coastal areas like Santa Maria and San Luis Obispo as well as the Salinas Valley. .LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...23/300 AM. The only real question for the Wed through Fri forecast is: will it be very hot or extremely hot. This forceast problem is driven by a wide range of possibilities with the sfc gradients. The EC is show a fairly strong offshore push which would bring near record very dangerous heat to the area. The GFS keeps the E/W gradient onshore but even it has some offshore flow forecast from the north (just much less than the EC does). The upper high moves a little to the west but hgts really do not change much and should remain around 594 dam through the period. Almost all of the vlys, lower mtn elevations and far interior will have temps between 100 and 110 degrees during this period. If the EC verifies Vly temps could end up 2 to 3 degrees warmer than the current forecast. The interior cst sections (such as DTLA) have a 15 percent chc of high temps of 100 to 103 degrees. The Central Coast will not be immune from the heat this time around. Offshore trends will lead to an 8 to 12 degree warm up on Wednesday leading to max temps in the upper 80s to mid 90s - there is a 10-20 percent chc that SLO could see 100 degrees. In addition to the daytime highs overnight lows will be 8 to 12 degrees above normal and this will greatly exacerbate the heat risk as there will be no time for people's body to release the heat stress. It is very likely that almost the entire forecast area will be blanketed by some combination of heat advisories and Extreme Heat Warnings starting Wednesday. One additional local concern will be very hot sundowners across southern SBA county. A decent N to S gradient will set up over the county each evening and gusty north canyon winds will develop. These hot winds could drive max temps into the 100-105 degree range and could also keep temperatures in the 80s until almost dawn. Some cooling is forecast on Saturday, but in the past these heat waves have held on a little longer than forecast. && .AVIATION...23/1615Z. At 1600Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 500 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 2700 feet with a temperature of 28 degrees Celsius. For 18Z TAF package, high confidence in KPRB, KSBA, KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, KWJF and KPMD. For KSBP, there is a 50% chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop tonight. For KSMX, timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecast. For KLAX and KLGB, there is a 10-20% chance of LIFR/IFR conditions 08Z-17Z. KLAX...Overall, good confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 10-20% chance of LIFR/IFR conditions 08Z-17Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected. KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF. && .MARINE...23/110 PM. For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Friday, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds are expected to continue although the winds will drop briefly across PZZ670 tonight and Monday. Seas will be approaching SCA levels beginning on Wednesday. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Monday night, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Tuesday through Friday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds each afternoon and evening. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Friday. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds late this afternoon and evening then a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds Monday through Friday, mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory in effect until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through Friday evening for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 4 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW/Rorke AVIATION...RAT MARINE...RAT SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  662 FXUS65 KVEF 232053 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 153 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Hotter than normal temperatures will continue through the week. * Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms will linger through Monday for portions of our forecast area. && .DISCUSSION...through Saturday. Persistent ridging across the Desert Southwest will keep temperatures above normal through the week. Monday will be the "coolest" day of the week, with afternoon high temperatures topping out around 2 top 5 degrees above normal. Temperatures across the region will increase on Tuesday and Wednesday as we dry out. Across the Mojave Desert, temperatures will be around 4 to 7 degrees above normal through the second half of the week, with temperatures around 2 to 4 degrees above normal across the southern Great Basin and in the Owens Valley. The long duration of these anomalous temperatures will result in widespread Major-to- Extreme Heat Risk across the Mojave Desert during the latter half of the week with widespread Moderate Heat Risk across the southern Great Basin and Owens Valley. Current radar and satellite imagery show isolated showers and thunderstorms moving southwest to northeast through Mohave County and across the southern Great Basin. Storms will continue to develop on the higher terrain across northwestern Arizona and the southern Great Basin this afternoon, with the potential for isolated convection to pop up in the higher terrain of Clark County an the Mojave Preserve. Gusty outflow winds, localized downpours, and lightning are the main threats with today's storms. Overnight, moisture will increase across our southern and eastern zones. This additional moisture will help to fuel another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms for areas south and east of the I-15 corridor tomorrow. Beyond Monday, dry southwesterly flow aloft will cause moisture to decrease across the region through the end of the week. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds favor a southeasterly direction this morning with sustained speeds of less than 10 knots. A few gusts to around 15 knots cannot be ruled out. In the early afternoon, winds will shift to the southwest with gusts of around 20 knots. Winds will decrease but maintain a southwesterly direction after sunset. Temperatures exceed 100 degrees until 04Z this evening, then increase to above 100 degrees by 18Z tomorrow. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Southerly winds with gusts between 20 and 25 knots develop this afternoon in the Las Vegas Valley, Colorado River Valley, and Owens Valley, weakening after sunset. Gusty westerly winds pick up after sunset at KDAG, lasting into the early morning hours. Thunderstorms will continue to drift through Mohave County this afternoon, and additional storm development cannot be ruled out over high terrain in southern Nevada as well. Gusty outflow winds may cause sudden wind direction changes in the Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River Valley. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Stessman AVIATION...Meltzer For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  790 FXUS65 KCYS 232056 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 256 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lower coverage of showers and thunderstorms today, mainly further south near the Colorado border and western Nebraska. Brief strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall expected with this activity into this evening. - Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue Monday through the end of the week with slightly above average temperature expected until Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 252 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Another active afternoon and evening is forecast. Storms have already begun to appear on radar early this afternoon, albeit not many. Coverage of storms will likely be less than yesterday with more dry air present from westerly winds aloft. A weak dryline is also present on observations across the CWA, roughly running along the Interstate 25 corridor. Behind the dryline remains fairly quiet with just a few cumulus fields. Ahead of the dryline is where storms currently are in Nebraska. The Nebraska panhandle is also where the highest instability is, with mesoanalysis suggesting more than 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE. Shear is decent, but likely not enough to get very strong storms. A few isolated severe storms are likely, with initial discrete cells posing a hail risk. As afternoon progresses to evening, the threat will switch to more of a wind one, with storm clusters entering the far western portion of the CWA. The intensity of these storms will be weaker than the ones in the Nebraska panhandle, but severe wind gusts will still be possible due to DCAPE values in excess of 1200 J/kg from the dry surface. Showers and storms will continue through the evening hours with a few lingering showers possible after midnight. Rinse and repeat the same song and dance again for Monday. The environment looks similar to Sunday but with better forcing from an upper-level shortwave moving through the ridge. Coverage and intensity of storms on Monday will likely depend largely on where the weak dryline can set up. Some models push the dryline far enough east out of the CWA where the more intense storms will not impact the forecast area. Newer CAM guidance has begun to recede the dryline further back into the Nebraska panhandle which will likely result in storm development during the afternoon hours. Initial discrete cells that develop will pose more of hail threat, but will shift more towards a wind threat as they cluster. Much like Sunday, showers and weaker storms will enter the western portion of the CWA during the evening and move eastward. Wind will be the primary concern with these given the drier low-levels and high DCAPE values. Severe wind gusts cannot be ruled out. Showers will linger through the overnight hours. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 252 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 No major changes to the overall long term forecast as we see conditions slightly warmer than average to start the period and then by the end of the week into next weekend we warm back up to several degrees above average with monsoonal moisture providing a daily chance of thunderstorms with a low end severe risk generally expected each day. At the upper levels, a strong ridge of high pressure will control the Western US, and should continue to hold control until the end of the week when a deep low will approach the western Canadian coastline. This feature may begin to move inland and could interrupt our pattern by late next weekend, but until then expect largely similar conditions each day. Moisture at the surface may begin to slowly dwindle, and by the late week into the weekend elevated fire weather concerns may begin to arise as minimum daytime RH values drop back into theteens. Still, daily PWAT values will sit around 120-130% of normal, and between daytime instability and weak disturbances riding the periphery of the ridge, we should still see thunderstorm chances each afternoon with a low end severe threat possible. At the surface meanwhile, a cold front will stall out on Tuesday and then begin advancing back eastwards as a warm front but should become very slow moving to even stationary, helping to fuel storm initiation through the end of the week. Overall it will be more of the same as we remain in a fairly stagnant pattern through the period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1125 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Added a mention of showers and/or thunderstorms in all sites due to recent high resolution model guidance, but pinpointing exact storm activity is a bit more difficult today and these probabilities are still on the low side. Winds breezy, 15-30 knots, stronger and more erratic near any precipitation activity. Winds should weaken overnight into tomorrow morning and become 10 kts or less. CIGs will generally be mid level, with some clouds nearing low level with thunderstorms, lifting and clearing overnight into tomorrow morning. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SF LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...CG