889 FXUS65 KFGZ 240000 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 500 PM MST Sun Aug 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Moderate monsoon activity will continue through Monday, mainly along the higher terrain during the afternoon and evening hours. Then, as high pressure builds over Arizona, hot weather and a decline in storm activity is expected to develop as the flow of moisture northward into the region diminishes. && .DISCUSSION...Upper-air analysis shows the 500mb subtropical high pressure cell centered across central New Mexico, with a northeastward-moving shortwave trough draped across the Yavapai and Coconino County border. This system is actively supporting showers and thunderstorms across western Yavapai and Coconino Counties, while aiding convective initiation along portions of the Mogollon Rim. Moderate monsoon conditions persist today with storms drifting northeastward on average. The forecast favors high-terrain locations, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms between 30-60% in the mountains. However, mid-level warming is limiting deep atmospheric instability, keeping the threat for severe weather low. Given the presence of slow-moving storms, there is a low to medium risk for flash flooding. This threat is tempered by atmospheric moisture (precipitable water) values ranging from 0.75-0.85 inches north of the Mogollon Rim and 0.85-1.15 inches south of the Rim. Outflow wind gusts between 35-45 mph are possible in the vicinity of storms. Storm activity is forecast to decline after sunset. High- resolution model guidance indicates overnight showers and thunderstorms may move into the region from the south, impacting areas west of a Payson to Flagstaff to Page line. Similar convective coverage is forecast on Monday, though a surge of moisture northward from the Gulf of California will likely shift the main axis of high storm coverage into Coconino and Yavapai Counties, with more isolated activity expected elsewhere. By mid-to-late week, guidance generally agrees that the subtropical high pressure circulation will strengthen over Arizona. This will introduce more stable atmospheric conditions and a noticeable downturn in storm coverage, leaving only low- grade monsoon activity through the remainder of the week. Temperatures are forecast to warm during this period, with daytime temperatures approaching 10 degrees above normal across much of the area. Excessive Heat products may become necessary for lower elevation areas, including portions of Yavapai County and Grand Canyon country. && .AVIATION...Monday 24/00Z through Tuesday 25/00Z...Mainly VFR conditions. Isolated SHRA/TSRA through at least 03Z. There is the potential that SHRA/TSRA in south-central AZ could produce an outflow boundary that will trigger another round of SHRA/TSRA late tonight or early Monday morning for KPRC-KSEZ-KFLG-KINW between 9Z and 18Z. Otherwise, another round of isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA is then forecast to develop Monday afternoon, with highest coverage west of a KPAN-KPGA line. Brief MVFR conditions and gusty/erratic wind to 40 kts possible in heavier SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise, look for south to southwest winds at 5-15 kts, with variable or terrain wind-driven winds overnight. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 25/00Z through Thursday 27/00Z...Expect mainly VFR conditions. Coverage of afternoon SHRA/TSRA decreasing to isolated Tuesday and Wednesday, mainly over higher terrain. Outside of gusty/erratic outflow driven winds, look for daytime winds mainly southwest to west 5-15 kts. Light and variable winds at night. && .FIRE WEATHER...Rest of today through Tuesday...Expect daily chances for showers/thunderstorms, with the greatest coverage across the higher terrain. Activity will ramp up around midday then continue through the evening hours. Drier conditions are possible starting Tuesday, with low-grade monsoonal conditions developing. Outside of gusty and erratic storm driven winds, look for southwest to west winds generally 10 mph or less during the day and variable at night. Wednesday through Friday...Drier, low-grade monsoonal conditions will likely continue, with activity becoming more limited to the White Mountains. Daytime highs are forecast to become quite hot, reaching up to 10-15 degrees above normal. Look for southwest winds 5-15 mph each afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...RR AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  058 FXUS65 KTFX 240002 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 602 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon capable of strong wind gusts up to 80 mph and marginally large hail, mainly east of I-15 ahead of a cold front. - Gusty winds behind a cold front this afternoon, with elevated fire weather conditions. - Generally near or above average temperatures this week with a few days of scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 1236 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: Potent upper level troughing moving across the region today will bring an array of impacts, including strong to severe thunderstorms and elevated fire weather conditions. A cold front will be moving through today, which will delineate the transition between a more thunderstorm focused risk and fire weather risk. Ahead of the cold front ample moisture looks to coincide with daytime heating and forcing from the passing upper level disturbance to result in scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly east of I- 15. Deep mixing and shear on the order of 30-40kts will support the risk for large hail with initial storms before the risk transitions to be more wind focused. Latest mesoanalysis features DCAPE in excess of 1200 J/Kg over the plains, which would support the risk for wind gusts approaching 80 mph in the strongest thunderstorms that form. While PWATs are still elevated, the deep inverted-V profiles will support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. Behind the cold front a period of breezy west winds is forecast to develop in most areas. The lowest portion of the atmosphere dries out quite quickly behind the front, which will allow for relative humidity to continue falling behind the front, even as temperatures cool. The combination of the breezy and dry conditions, as well as the potential for a few dry thunderstorms brings about an elevated fire weather risk across most of the region. Heading into Monday the upper system responsible for active weather today will exit eastward. Weak ridging builds in across the west in wake of this system, though with some lingering monsoonal moisture near the Idaho border between Monida and West Yellowstone, a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out by late afternoon. The rest of the region looks dry Monday. The upper level ridging more or less persists much of the upcoming week, but as it shifts slowly eastward an upper level trough approaching the Pacific NW will slowly allow for showers and thunderstorms to spread further and further northward across the region each day. -AM - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: The main source of uncertainty today is with respect to how ongoing convection over the plains north of Great Falls will modify the convective environment this afternoon. On one hand this activity may limit destabilization in some areas where forcing is greatest. Conversely this activity and associated outflow may serve as a focus for additional convective initiation mid-afternoon, resulting in perhaps a greater areal extent of convective activity. ADditionally, if this activity persists, it could eventually break the cap and intensify and become the main area of concern across the Hi-Line. Nonetheless, any thunderstorm that forms this afternoon will be capable of strong wind gusts, and at least briefly large hail. -AM && .AVIATION... 24/00Z TAF Period Aside from a few lingering SHRA and TSRA south and east of KBZN and KEKS, expect largely VFR conditions to persist across North Central and Southwestern Montana. While gusty westerly winds will persist through the remainder of the evening, winds should dissipate overnight tonight. Winds increase again again Monday afternoon, particularly north and east of KLWT and KCTB. For KGTF: Westerly winds will diminish over the next few hours and into the overnight hours. Expect generally light winds Monday with gusts generally under 15kts, initially from the southwest after sunrise before shifting to northwest after 18z. While crosswinds are likely in the afternoon, the risk of seeing crosswinds over 15 kts is under 10%. Ludwig && .FIRE WEATHER... A surface front will bring gusty westerly winds through the afternoon hours across the region. Widespread gusts over 35 mph are possible and will be enhanced by any thunderstorm activity that develops. Minimum RH values will be most critical in Southwest Montana where the RFW is currently in effect for Sunday afternoon and evening. Further north, conditions will be windy but not quite as dry. Additionally there is some disagreement in the latest models as to how the thunderstorms will develop and how widespread they will be. With this uncertainty in place the decision was made to hold off on issuing a RFW for North-Central Montana for now. But elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will be a concern across the entire region. Where thunderstorms do develop, the concerns will be frequent lightning and gusty/erratic winds which may lead to new fire starts and make new and/or existing fires difficult to contain. -thor && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 54 81 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 50 77 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 50 84 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 48 82 49 84 / 10 0 0 20 WYS 39 79 41 79 / 20 0 20 20 DLN 47 84 50 85 / 0 0 0 20 HVR 55 82 51 84 / 10 0 0 0 LWT 52 79 48 82 / 30 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  115 FXUS63 KBIS 240003 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 703 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over western and south central North Dakota this evening. Potential hazards include hail up to the size of ping pong balls, damaging winds up to 70 mph, and torrential downpours. - Isolated severe thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon and evening primarily over central and eastern North Dakota. Potential hazards include large hail up to 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds up to 70 mph, but still some question if thunderstorms can develop. - Near-critical fire weather conditions expected over parts of western North Dakota on Monday, and the far southwest on Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 647 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Thunderstorms, with some being severe with large hail, continue to push through southwest North Dakota over the area with the greatest instability and deep layer shear. Severe threat will continue through the mid-evening hours as storms push east, but as they move into a lower sheared and more stable environment as they approach the Missouri River, expect intensity to wane. Storms also stretch off into north central North Dakota, with the storms in that area producing some higher rainfall amounts, and also earlier produced a strong wind gust at Minot Air Force Base. Expect the wind threat has diminished, but elevated rainfall amounts remain possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Current surface analysis places trough stretching from western Saskatchewan through eastern Montana/Wyoming, with high over the midwest. Upper level analysis places high over New Mexico, with ridge stretching northward to the lee of the Rockies into the Plains. Over our area, low level moisture continues to be on the increase with south-southeasterly low level flow between the two aforementioned surface features. A line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms continues to slide through western North Dakota affiliated with a short wave trough noted in the flow. For the rest of this afternoon into this evening, a tricky forecast is on tap as some variables remain in play. It has been well advertised that with the returning moisture we will have an unstable atmosphere in place, particularly over southwest into south central North Dakota where CAPE values are already in excess of 2000 J/Kg at this time over a broad part of the area, and that plenty of deep layer shear in in place (40-50 kts 0-6km) to support rotating updrafts. With that said, the flies in the ointment continue to be rather modest forcing, along with forecast soundings showing a cap that may be difficult to overcome. Latest short term guidance continues to show a variety of solutions ranging from some light showers/a few weak storms to a variety of severe over the southwest and south central, possible nudging northward. So, the severe threat will remain conditional, but if a storm or storms were able to get going in earnest, large hail and damaging wind gusts remain a concern given the aforementioned shear/instability. A secondary wave pushes in from Montana later tonight, which may lead to some additional elevated storms, which would move through overnight. On Monday, surface trough to the west pushes over western North Dakota in the morning, into central North Dakota before stalling mid-day. Behind the trough, drier air will move in with breezy conditions developing, which will lead to some near-critical fire weather conditions over the far west. Ahead of the trough, moist air remains in place. CAPE values will again be elevated over this area, along with similar deep layer shear as today. Again, though, thethreat remains conditional as to whether enough forcing will be in place in order for storms to develop. On Tuesday, quiet weather is expected as the ridge axis re- focuses over the Rockies, though a compact low/short wave will zip through southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba which may lead to a few showers or possibly a thunderstorm around the Turtle Mountains region. Northwest winds will be on the increase as the surface low with this system moves east through Manitoba into Ontario. Upper ridge gradually meanders east resulting in quiet weather for us through Thursday before a few weak waves move through the ridge, bringing some low precipitation chances to end the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 647 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Thunderstorms will spread from west to east this evening. A few severe storms with large hail or damaging wind gusts will be remain possible this evening, mainly over southwest and south central North Dakota, though some higher wind gusts also remain possible over north central North Dakota. Additional storms may enter western North Dakota from Montana later tonight pushing east into Monday morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms then possible Monday afternoon, mainly over central North Dakota into the James River Valley. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...JJS DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...JJS  211 FXUS62 KCAE 240005 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 805 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated 00z Aviation, otherwise no notable changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Seasonal temperatures with afternoon thunderstorm chances each day this week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonal temperatures with afternoon thunderstorm chances each day into next week. A few isolated thunderstorms and showers will linger across the eastern and southern Midlands through about 9pm or so. Some gusty winds, thanks to lingering inverted V profiles, and brief heavy rain possible. Quick diurnal cooling after sunset with large dew point depressions and light winds will quickly stabilize things and mitigate any severe threat. Generally quiet conditions are expected through the first half of the week as a relatively dry air mass remains in place. Rain chances should stay low through tomorrow, with only isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms possible during the early part of the week. Moisture will gradually increase from mid to late week, resulting in a trend toward higher afternoon storm coverage. LREF probabilities indicate a 50-70 percent chance of PWAT values exceeding 1.75 inches from Wednesday onward. Upper- level troughing will also begin to shift into the region, supporting increasing moisture and greater chances for afternoon thunderstorms. Weak shortwaves embedded within the flow should also provide additional forcing for convection. Temperatures are expected to gradually warm as this overall pattern persists into next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR expected through the period, with a few isolated thunderstorms near OGB-AIK this evening. A few very isolated thunderstorms are moving across the eastern and southern Midlands of SC tonight, and will last through roughly 01z. Included a mention of vcts at OGB briefly to cover this. Otherwise, VFR conditions are likely through the period with a few scattered storms expected again Monday but low confidence. Monday morning could bring some fog around sunrise, but crossover temps and boundary layer winds should generally mitigate any potential. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated storms each afternoon with higher coverage of storms expected by midweek. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...42  333 FXUS63 KMKX 240009 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 709 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Crisp, fall-like conditions tonight. Some fog is possible after midnight. - Comfortable & pleasant afternoon weather conditions today through Tuesday & Thursday-Friday. - Windows for showers & thunderstorms Tuesday night through Wednesday & next weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued 709 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 No major changes to the forecast this evening with high pressure in place and the fair weather cumulus slow diminishing now that the sun is setting. The clear skies tonight, light winds and falling temperatures will lead to some fog development tonight. The best potential will be in low lying areas and river valleys. With dewpoints also expected to fall a couple degrees there is a bit of uncertainty in how widespread fog development will be. Otherwise with overnight lows expected to fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s (warmer near Lake Michigan), it will be a cool and crisp night. Patterson && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 This afternoon through Monday night: Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: Southern Wisconsin is centered between low pressure along the Ontario-Quebec border & high pressure along the Minnesota-Iowa border late this morning, resulting in breezy northwest surface winds. With the center of the high & affiliated low level subsidence well west of the area, surface heating is allowing for fair weather cumulus development, with cumulus coverage expected to increase further moving deeper into the afternoon. The aforementioned surface high will nudge into southern Wisconsin tonight, leading to clear skies and light surface winds. The clear skies & light winds will allow for efficient radiational cooling & fall-like low temperatures in the low 50s. Some spots could dip into the upper 40s. Areas of fog development are possible after midnight, particularly in low- lying locations. Fog will quickly dissipate after sunrise Monday, giving way to mostly sunny skies and pleasant weather conditions Monday afternoon. High pressure will begin to shift east of the region Monday night, allowing south-southwest winds to re-establish across the area. Tonight: Will be monitoring for potential fog development near/after midnight as the boundary layer attempts to decouple in the presence of clear skies and light surface winds. Forecast soundings show extremely shallow near-surface moist layers susceptible to mix out and/or dew depletion, so fog coverage remains uncertain. Suspect that the best overall fog potential will remain confined to river valleys & other low-lying spots, but have included broader mentions areawide in the afternoon update. Will be monitoring visibility trends into the overnight. Slow down, use low beam headlights, and allow for extra following distance if encountering areas of fog on the roads. Quigley && .LONG TERM... Issued 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Tuesday through Sunday: Synopsis: High pressure will continue to shift east of the region on Tuesday, with southerly return flow allowing for gradual moisture returns and slight increases in humidity. The next upper disturbance and surface front will drift into the western Great Lakes from the Canadian Prairies Tuesday evening through Wednesday, bringing the next chances for showers and thunderstorms to southern Wisconsin. A new area of high pressure will move into the western Great Lakes during the second half of the week, leading to pleasant and mostly dry weather conditions Thursday into Friday. The high will shift east by Saturday, with returning southerly flow leading to steady increases in humidity through the remainder of next weekend. Concurrent increases in zonal upper level flow, in addition to embedded shortwaves, will support the next shower and storm chances within the returning moisture. Saturday night into Sunday is the currently favored window for storms in southern Wisconsin, with more precise timing clarifying through this week. Tuesday Evening through Wednesday: Still anticipating periods of showers and storms across southern Wisconsin as an upper wave & attendant surface cold front move through the western Great Lakes. General idea of initial (likely elevated) storms within an increasing warm advection regime Tuesday evening/night, followed by a window of surface-based storm potential along the passing cold front Wednesday afternoon, remains on track in this forecast. Latest six hourly precip probs reflect these expectations. Whether or not any of this activity reaches severe levels remains less certain, however, largely due to the currently progged timing of the best synoptic-scale ascent. Global & longer-range mesoscale guidance is relatively insistent on a Tuesday overnight/early day Wednesday passage of the upper wave & surface front, which would be misaligned with peak surface heating & the best instability. Nevertheless, prevailing deep layer shear will be supportive of more organized storm development through this time frame, with any combination of factors promoting increased instability leading to higher potential for a few severe storms with hail and gusty winds. Will be monitoring setup and timing details closely over the next 24-36 hours. Saturday Night through Sunday: A second window for showers and storms opens as low level moisture deepens & the mid-upper pattern becomes more energetic. More precise details will clarify through this week, though it does appear that periods of storms will be around the region as the nose of the low level jet approaches and ultimately folds over southern Wisconsin. Global ensemble guidance is in relatively sound agreement regarding low level jet evolution & placement, providing further confidence for periods of storms during this time frame. A broad overlap of sufficient shear and instability makes this a period to monitor for organized/stronger thunderstorms, though whether these parameters come together to realize any potential will depend on smaller-scale features & timing not yet captured by available guidance. Will be monitoring trends & providing additional info as this portion of the period draws closer. Quigley && .AVIATION... Issued 709 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Largely VFR conditions through the period. With skies clearing this evening and winds diminishing, the one potential for lower ceilings and visibilities will be with any fog that develops after midnight. There is uncertainty in how widespread the patchy fog could become, but visibilities could fall to around 2-4 SM. Terminals in low lying areas or river valleys (LNR and JVL) will have the best potential for fog development. VFR conditions are expected to return shortly after sunrise. Fair weather cumulus clouds are expected to return late morning through the evening Monday. The few to scattered cloud deck is expected to be around 4-6 kft. Light and variable winds tonight will become light northwesterly winds Monday. A Lake breeze is expected to develop during the early evening hours which will turn winds to the northeast then east for lakeshore terminals. Light and variable winds are expected again Monday night. Patterson && .MARINE... Issued 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Scattered shower chances continue over the northern third of Lake Michigan this afternoon, with a few waterspouts possible. 1004 mb low pressure is centered near the Ontario-Quebec border, resulting in breezy northwest winds across the open waters of Lake Michigan. The breezy winds will continue through tonight as the low lingers in the same general vicinity. Expecting most gusts to remain in the 25- 30 knot range, though a few gusts approaching gale force are possible over the northern third of the lake. Given the brief & isolated nature of any such gusts, not anticipating the need for any gale headlines, but will be monitoring trends. 1020 mb high pressure will steadily build into the Upper Mississippi Valley today, reaching the waters by Monday afternoon. The high's arrival will lead to decreasing winds, with conditions becoming light and variable by Monday evening. Light and variable winds will continue Monday night with high pressure lingering in the vicinity. The high will shift east into Ontario by Tuesday, resulting in a south-southwest wind shift across the waters. 1005 mb low pressure will approach from the northern Great Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday, reinforcing the south- southwesterly wind pattern. The low will cross Lake Michigan during the second half of the day Wednesday, bringing a breezy northwest wind shift. Gales are not expected as this occurs. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the approaching/passing surface low Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon. It remains too early to tell if any of these storms could be severe, with trends being monitored through the beginning of this week. The next area of 1018 mb high pressure will gradually build toward Lake Michigan from the northern Great Plains Wednesday night through Friday, bringing slowly decreasing winds. A brief period of Small Craft Advisory conditions remains possible Tuesday afternoon & evening ahead of approaching low pressure, particularly to the north of North Point. Whether these conditions will be sustained & widespread enough for headlines remains uncertain at this time, with trends being monitored into tomorrow. Showers and thunderstorms return to nearshore zones Tuesday night into Wednesday along/ahead of an approaching cold front. Quigley && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  867 FXUS65 KRIW 240015 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 615 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening. Locally heavy rain, small hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be the main threats. - A separate area of storms looks to push in from northern UT between 8PM and 10PM and with a 20-30% chance of being strong to severe. Damaging winds up to 60 mph, lightning and locally heavy rain will be possible as these storms move over southwestern and southern portions of the state through midnight. - Monsoonal moisture will linger much of the week, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. Temperatures will be closer to seasonable for this time of year nearing the end of August. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Much more ample sunshine across the CWA for the noon update as compared to yesterday. As such, temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer this afternoon than Saturday afternoon as well. With better mixing, there will be a stronger breeze to go along with it as well gusting up to 25-30 mph at times outside of any storm activity and outflow winds. Nothing on radar currently but HiRes data is still pinpointing development by 2-3PM off leeside of the Absarokas and pushing in from the south off the Uintas for Sweetwater County. Much of this activity will be isolated in nature compared to yesterday's showers but expect lightning and a brief outflow over 40 mph with its eastward progression through the evening. With this, PoPs have been adjusted and especially after the CRON wiped out the night shift's work to account for this heading into the evening hours. This is where it will get a bit more interesting at least for Wyoming standards. A line of storm activity looks to form from southern Montana and across eastern Idaho by 6-7PM before pushing east into western Wyoming shortly thereafter along and ahead of the cold front. This will track through the CWA by Monday morning. SPC continues with the Marginal Severe Risk, with an introduced Slight to the southwest portions of the state to include hatched wind. This looks to be overdone, even though damaging winds are possible up to 60 mph from the outflows ahead of the front. The instability with DCAPE values less than 500 J/kg just don't look too impressive as it nears radiational cooling towards sunset. There might be an hour or so before darkness, but the FROPA will be later further south for the CWA with its positive tilt and progressive eastward push. Stronger winds than that don't look great in the least but something to keep an eye on between 6-10PM west of the Divide. Beyond that as it makes its way to the east after midnight, the juice of the storms will be lost with mainly shower activity in its wake. The cold front will push the warmer moist air south and southeast. Beyond that, status quo, as the monsoonal pattern continues but to a bit lesser extent. Temperatures behind this aforementioned cold front will bring afternoon highs closer to seasonable for this time of year ending the month of August with 80s east of the Divide even into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 It was a typical monsoon day yesterday, with some areas, mainly in southwest and in Johnson and Natrona Counties getting a LOT of rain, causing some local flooding. Other areas saw nothing. And we continue to have some showers and embedded thunder around late tonight, although intensity is significantly less. And these will continue through the night, gradually becoming weaker and less numerous. We will have another round of showers and storms today. There are some differences. For one, precipitable water values are lesstoday by about 20 percent in most locations. This should bring less coverage and somewhat lesser rainfall rates. The other difference is that there will be more steering flow today, generally about 10 to 15 knots at 700 millibars and 25 to 35 knots at 500 millibars. So storms should have more movement. This should decrease the chance of flooding somewhat. We still have an excessive rainfall outlook across most ares west of the Divide though, so the threat is still there. There is also the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. Most of the area is under a Marginal risk of severe weather today. There could be some small hail, but this not the main risk. The main risk looks to be strong wind gusts. Roughly north and west of a Buffalo to Riverton to Lyman line has a Conditional 1 outlook for wind, or possible convective wind gusts to 75 mph. Soundings do show some inverted-V profiles, especially across northwestern Wyoming where the surface will be drier, with low and mid level lapse rates close to 9 C/km. This could lead to some strong downburst winds later today. Again, the best chance would be across the northwest but most areas will have a chance. And, like previous nights, most convection should end after sunset but a few showers and storms will likely linger through the night. As for temperatures, they should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with more sunshine expected. The rest of the week looks like more of the same as the annoying monsoonal moisture will hang around the area through at least Thursday and possibly into Friday as well. The models continue to have different ideas on which day will be more active with no real well defined shortwaves with changes from day to day. Precipitable water generally average about 125 to 150 percent of normal through the period though. So, at this point we went with a generic solution of mainly diurnal showers and storms each afternoon. Temperatures should remain fairly similar through the period, not very hot but averaging around 4 to 8 degrees above normal on average, with the possibility of a cooler day if there is more cloud cover than expected. Drier air may then work in for next weekend and bring a return to drier weather but uncertainty remains high on the exact timing. So, all in all, it continues to look like more of the same as the summer of the monsoon lives on in western and central Wyoming. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 355 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Most showers and thunderstorms end through about 03z. Lingering chances continue overnight for southwestern Wyoming, including KBPI, KPNA, and KRKS and should be done by sunrise, if not sooner. Outside any convection, winds lessen overnight, following typical diurnal trends. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are again possible Monday afternoon. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Lowe DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Wittmann  894 FXUS64 KEWX 240016 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 716 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 712 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Extreme Heat Warning continues Monday for the northern Hill Country and Austin area. - Heat Advisory continues through Wednesday for the Coastal Plains, I-35 corridor, and portions of the Hill Country. && .UPDATE... Issued at 712 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Due to increased confidence in similarly hot conditions continuing Monday afternoon, the Extreme Heat Warning was extended in part for Bastrop, Burnet, Llano, Travis, and Williamson counties through 7 PM CDT Monday. Temperatures up to 107F are again forecast Monday afternoon for these areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The heat will continue to be the main focus through mid-week as temperatures remain above normal. A strong ridge of high pressure remains centered over the southern Rocky Mountains and this will be the main influencer of our weather pattern. The Extreme Heat Warning for the northern Hill Country, Austin area and southward into the Coastal plains will remain in effect until 7 PM CDT Sunday. A Heat Advisory also continues today for portions of the Hill Country, I-35 Corridor and Coastal plains. Highs are still on track to top out in the 103 to 107 degree range for areas under the Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory. For Monday (through Wednesday), we will continue the current Heat Advisory for portions of the Hill Country, I-35 Corridor, and Coastal Plains. While a few spots may approach 105 degrees (mainly northern Hill Country to near Austin), confidence is not quite high enough to go with another Extreme Heat Warning at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The above mentioned ridge of high pressure will continue to remain the dominant weather feature through much of this week. There are some indications that convection to our north could send a weak outflow boundary southward late Wednesday. Confidence is low, but we will monitor as the boundary may allow a surface focus for convective initiation. In addition, models generally show a decent signal for an increase in mid and upper level cloud cover Wednesday into Thursday as the mid-level flow briefly trends back to a northwesterly direction. Weak disturbances embedded in northwest flow aloft always bear watching and for now we will keep some low rain chances (20-30%) in the forecast Thursday afternoon and evening across the Hill Country into the I-35 corridor from near San Marcos northward. Some low rain chances for the same areas could linger into Friday, but overall confidence in this is rather low. Late in the forecast period, the flow aloft should trend back to a more north to northeasterly direction, which typically does not favor any rainfall chances. Temperatures will remain well above normal through the period and additional heat headlines will be our main concern. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are forecast for all local terminals through Monday night. Southerly winds prevail through the period with speeds around 5 to 10 knots with occasional higher gusts during the daytime hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 79 106 77 105 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 105 77 104 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 103 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 76 103 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 78 105 77 103 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 78 105 77 103 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 74 102 74 101 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 104 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 104 77 104 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 103 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 75 104 76 104 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ171>173-192- 193. Heat Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ171>173-192-193. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ191-194-205>209- 220>225. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...17  365 FXUS64 KSHV 240025 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 725 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 112 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Isolated thunderstorms are possible across our south tonight, and across our north and east through the day tomorrow. A few storms may become strong to severe. - The Heat Advisory will be allowed to expire tonight for some of our south Arkansas counties, remaining in effect through tomorrow evening elsewhere. - Central Louisiana may see more strong to severe storms Monday. Warm conditions with occasional showers and storms will continue through the remainder of the week ahead. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 112 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Aside from a few very spotty showers in east Texas, this morning's rainfall has diminished, and the afternoon looks to remain mostly dry areawide. Short range CAMs continue to show some isolated showers and storms across our southernmost zones near the Toledo Bend Country this evening, with a few potentially becoming strong, but confidence in location of impacts is still limited at this writing. Any storms that do develop should diminish quickly after sunset. The remainder of the night should remain dry areawide, with the next rainfall chances arriving tomorrow morning and remaining confined to our northeasternmost zones, from Hope along the I-30 corridor of Arkansas into north central Louisiana, including Monroe and Jena. These rainfall chances will continue through the day and into the evening and overnight hours. The SPC is highlighting an increased chance of strong to severe storms producing damaging wind gusts, with the highest risk largely southeast of the ArkLaTex, as these storms track down the lower Mississippi Valley. The impacts of this anticipated rainfall and the associated cloud cover on the temperature forecast has prompted an adjustment to our heat headlines. For Union, Nevada, Howard, Columbia and Hempstead counties, the Heat Advisory will be allowed to expire this evening. Elsewhere, the Advisory has been extended through tomorrow evening for heat indices up to 109 degrees. Beyond tomorrow night, our conditionally unstable pattern remains in play, with periodic rounds of showers and storms primarily across our north and east, but timing and coverage specifics will be driven by the position, extent and strength of the high over the desert southwest, and as such are very much in flux. As of this writing, a few storms are possible overnight Monday into Tuesday, followed by dry conditions Tuesday and returning rain north and east Wednesday into Thursday. Showers and storms across our south will be possible Friday with a warm and dry weekend to follow. This heat wave will continue through the middle of the week, with long range guidance giving us a bit of a "cool down" in the form of more highs in the 90s than in the triple digits by the end of this extended forecast period. /26/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 717 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 For the 24/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions prevail this evening as isolated convection in our southern airspace continues to slowly wind down over the next few hours. Mid and high level convective debris clouds will linger overnight, and expect some cu/altocu to gradually develop and expand across our eastern airspace on Monday with the next disturbance diving south from the Ozarks across AR and into NE LA. Therefore, have inserted VCTS at KELD/KMLU later in the period on Monday while our remaining sites should largely stay clear of any convection. Otherwise, light and variable winds overnight will trend more S/SW on Monday between 6-12 kts and some higher gusts possible across our East TX terminals. /19/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 112 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening for isolated strong storms that may produce locally gusty winds across portions of East Texas and North Louisiana south of I-20. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 79 103 80 101 / 0 10 20 10 MLU 77 100 77 99 / 0 30 20 20 DEQ 73 101 73 103 / 0 10 10 10 TXK 77 101 77 101 / 0 10 20 10 ELD 75 98 75 100 / 0 30 30 10 TYR 81 105 79 103 / 0 0 10 10 GGG 79 106 79 104 / 0 0 20 10 LFK 77 103 77 100 / 20 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ050-059-070-071. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ051-060-061-072- 073. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ DISCUSSION...26 AVIATION...19  802 FXUS64 KJAN 240032 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 732 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous heat stress is expected across portions of the forecast area over the next several days. - Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts remain possible across southern portions of the area today and spreading northward through Tuesday. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 732 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 This evening into tonight... Evening analysis indicate ridging over the TX Panhandle to Desert Southwest while the Gulf Coast region remains in the unsettled trough/shear axis region. There remains a frontal zone settled north of Interstate 20. A pocket of drier air remains across the east to northern half of the area, with deeper moisture situated to the south of the stationary front. A few storms have developed on the southern fringes of the area, with the most robust development in north-central LA. The strongest Theta E advection/convergence is in the southwest and southeast, so convection coverage will remain very isolated. There is some deep layer shear around 20kts that could support some continued isolated severe storm threat into tonight. Threat potential probably winds down by 10-11PM. Heat and humidity is somewhat improving but still have a large portion of heat indices in excess of 95-100F degrees and temperatures still hovering above 88-95F degrees. Heat advisory continues through 8PM with additional heat concerns into Monday. Lows will remain seasonably warm (70-76F). Updates are out. /DC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 This afternoon through tonight: Hot/humid conditions will be ongoing through the afternoon. Dangerous heat conditions is expected with greatest heat stress over western/southern areas where heat indices reach 110 degrees are expected. Heat Advisory will remain in effect through 8pm. A weak, frontal boundary will provide the next storm chances along the HWY 84 corridor through the evening hours. A "Marginal" (1/5) risk for severe weather with damaging winds as the primary hazard. Monday through Saturday: As the boundary progress southward, a round of elevated convection will bring Monday pre-dawn rain chances to the Delta and central MS. Afternoon temps will briefly "cool" temps to the low/mid 90s with heat indices near 105. "Although temps will be in the low/mid 90s, a "Limited" (1/4) risk for heat stress is expected. An additional "Slight" (2/5) risk for severe weather is expected for Monday and "Marginal" (1/5) risk Tuesday afternoon/evening thanks to incoming weak disturbances. The risk area will gradually move northward towards the 1-20 corridor by Tuesday. High pressure will retrograde towards the Southwest CONUS with a trough axis setting up across the Southern CONUS. As a result, northwest flow across the area will allow the disturbances to increase afternoon rain chances through the end of the week. Although rain chances will be present, heat will still be a concern through the week. Heat and humidity will be on the rebound as heat indices begin to increase to 110 degrees west of I-55. Heat headlines and advisories will likely be needed as the week progress. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 732 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR flight conditions prevail through the period, but brief restrictions to visibility may occur with any showers or storms near KGLH and KGWO after 24/12Z Monday. Confidence in thunder impacts was greatest to mention at those sites. Lower probs (20-50%) exist at, with most TSRA probs after 24/19-21Z Monday. Winds will be light and variable into Monday afternoon. /DC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 74 95 73 93 / 0 50 40 50 Meridian 73 96 72 93 / 10 40 30 50 Vicksburg 74 95 74 95 / 0 40 30 30 Hattiesburg 74 97 74 93 / 20 50 50 70 Natchez 75 98 76 96 / 10 30 20 20 Greenville 74 93 73 96 / 0 60 50 50 Greenwood 72 92 71 93 / 0 60 50 50 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025- 034>036-040>043-047>049-053>066-072>074. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016- 023>026. AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. && $$ DC/NF/DC  944 FXUS64 KHUN 240036 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 736 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 736 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms exists during the middle part of this week. The primary hazard will be locally excessive rain and lightning. There is a low chance of few strong storms with gusty winds as well. && .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 736 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A cold front has become stationary across central MS, AL and GA. Northerly flow and mixing has brought dew points down into the upper 50s to lower 60s for southern TN and far north AL, with upper 60s further south. Northwest flow and shortwave at 5h were bringing veils of high clouds into the region this evening. Overnight lows with light or calm wind will be in the lower to middle 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 736 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 NW flow will persist through mid week with higher theta-E, moisture and instability being shunted to our south and southwest through Monday into Monday night. Another pleasant day is forecast Monday with dew points staying in the upper 50s to lower 60s, and high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90. As a shortwave drops into the lower MO Valley on Tuesday, mid level moisture will begin to edge further east into AL and middle TN. This brings a very low chance of showers Tuesday. Low levels will likely be too dry to support much precipitation. The shortwave will pivot into the mid South and TN Valley Tuesday Night into Wednesday. The models differ greatly with the strength of the wave, magnitude of the associated LLJ, and consequently the influx of theta-E and convergence. The most plausible scenario is that elevated convection, possibly in the former of MCS clusters will develop Tuesday night in MO at the nose of the LLJ. These drop into western KY, much of western and central TN and into north AL by Wednesday, followed by eventual cold front passage late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Given the uncertainty, the NBM has low to medium chance PoPs at this point. Locally heavy rainfall may become the primary risk with this event, but a few strong storms could also develop with 20-25kt of 6km bulk shear. As of now, NBM has highs in the lower 90s for most valley area, but this appears to be questionable if the morning MCS clusters arrive as the models are depicting. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 736 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The axis of an upper level trough is shown to be right over the Southeast to start the long term, with shortwaves rippling along the flow across the ArkLaMiss and into the Tennessee Valley. This trough will gradually be pushed northeast as an upper ridge over the Desert Southwest builds over the southern Plains and eastward into the Southeast this weekend. At the surface, a boundary looks to linger over central Alabama, Mississippi, and Georgia through midweek; but, another cold front is expected to push through the Tennessee Valley on Thursday. There may be a reinforcing front that swings through on Friday, but high pressure is shown to quickly build over the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and portions of the Northeast next weekend. Overall, the best chance of showers and storms will likely be Wednesday night through Thursday. Chances then decrease from late week through the weekend as drier air is filtered into the region. Guidance indicates that PWATs increase to around 2 inches late Wednesday through Thursday. While there will likely be sufficient instability with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s Thursday afternoon, model bulk shear values and lapse rates have decreased since yesterday. So, confidence in stronger storms (downbursts) has also decreased; however, these trends will continue to be monitored. Regardless, showers and storms will be efficient rainfall producers. Heavy rain, especially from cells moving over the same locations repeatedly, may result in at least minor flooding issues. Ultimately, keep any eye on forecast updates this week and turn around, don't drown if you encounter flooded roads! For Friday through Sunday, rain chances are lower with continued high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 511 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR flight weather conditions are forecast. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...17 SHORT TERM....17 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...17  073 FXUS66 KLOX 240039 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 539 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS...23/538 PM. Very hot temperatures are expected this week with highs 6-12 degrees above normal. Patchy night through morning low clouds and fog will be confined to coastal areas, mainly north of Point Conception. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...23/142 PM. All signs still pointing towards a very hot week, especially south of Pt Conception. The combination of strong high pressure aloft, weakening onshore flow, and much warmer than normal ocean temperatures will create a long duration heat event, during which several daily records will likely be broken. The warmer than normal SST's will primarily impact the overnight temperatures, keeping those higher than normal and hindering any beneficial cooling. Heat advisories are in affect for most areas south of Pt Conception through Monday night with minimal changes in temperatures Monday over today. However, models have been consistent showing a 2-5 degree increase in highs Tuesday and Wednesday pushing some areas into the major heat risk category. The biggest factor determining which areas get upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning will be the pressure gradients and will wait to see how those look with Monday's model runs. Currently there is a 30-40% chance of highs of 110 or higher in the San Fernando Valley and a 50% chance of highs of 100 or higher in Downtown LA. For the Central Coast, the case for heat advisories is not as strong though by Tuesday or Wednesday low end advisories would likely be appropriate for inland coastal areas like Santa Maria and San Luis Obispo as well as the Salinas Valley. .LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...23/300 AM. The only real question for the Wed through Fri forecast is: will it be very hot or extremely hot. This forecast problem is driven by a wide range of possibilities with the sfc gradients. The EC is show a fairly strong offshore push which would bring near record very dangerous heat to the area. The GFS keeps the E/W gradient onshore but even it has some offshore flow forecast from the north (just much less than the EC does). The upper high moves a little to the west but hgts really do not change much and should remain around 594 dam through the period. Almost all of the vlys, lower mtn elevations and far interior will have temps between 100 and 110 degrees during this period. If the EC verifies Vly temps could end up 2 to 3 degrees warmer than the current forecast. The interior cst sections (such as DTLA) have a 15 percent chc of high temps of 100 to 103 degrees. The Central Coast will not be immune from the heat this time around. Offshore trends will lead to an 8 to 12 degree warm up on Wednesday leading to max temps in the upper 80s to mid 90s - there is a 10-20 percent chc that SLO could see 100 degrees. In addition to the daytime highs overnight lows will be 8 to 12 degrees above normal and this will greatly exacerbate the heat risk as there will be no time for people's body to release the heat stress. It is very likely that almost the entire forecast area will be blanketed by some combination of heat advisories and Extreme Heat Warnings starting Wednesday. One additional local concern will be very hot sundowners across southern SBA county. A decent N to S gradient will set up over the county each evening and gusty north canyon winds will develop. These hot winds could drive max temps into the 100-105 degree range and could also keep temperatures in the 80s until almost dawn. Some cooling is forecast on Saturday, but in the past these heat waves have held on a little longer than forecast. && .AVIATION...24/0025Z. At 2327Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 500 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 2500 feet with a temperature of 30 degrees Celsius. For the 00Z TAF package, high confidence in KPRB, KSBA, KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, KWJF and KPMD. For KSBP, there is a 40-50% chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop tonight. For KSMX, timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecast, with a 20% chance of brief or no CIGs forming. For KLAX and KLGB, there is a 10-20% chance of LIFR/IFR conditions 08Z-17Z. KLAX...Overall, good confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 20% chance of LIFR/IFR conditions 08Z-17Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected. KBUR...High confidence in the 00Z TAF. && .MARINE...23/110 PM. For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Friday, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds are expected to continue although the winds will drop briefly across PZZ670 tonight and Monday. Seas will be approaching SCA levels beginning on Wednesday. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Monday night, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Tuesday through Friday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds each afternoon and evening. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Friday. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds late this afternoon and evening then a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds Monday through Friday, mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory in effect until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through Friday evening for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 4 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW/Rorke AVIATION...Ciliberti MARINE...RAT SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox