048 FXUS61 KLWX 240102 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 902 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No changes to the forecast this evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Slight chance for a shower or storm this afternoon, then dry conditions anticipated through early portions of the week. - 2) Warmer and more humid conditions return mid-week, with thunderstorm chances returning by Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Slight chance for a shower or storm this afternoon, then dry conditions anticipated through early portions of the week. A few showers developed along the bay earlier this evening, then quickly moved east and out of the area. Dry conditions, clear skies, and cooler temperatures for tonight. High pressure will continue to slowly build toward the area on Monday and Tuesday, resulting in dry conditions and lower humidity levels. High temperatures will generally be in the upper 70s to mid 80s, with overnight lows in the 50s to lower 60s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Warmer and more humid conditions return mid- week, with thunderstorm chances returning by Thursday. Heading into Wednesday, dry, pleasant conditions continue into much of the day and afternoon. As an upper level ridge over the midwest begins to flatten in amplitude, southwesterly mid-level winds advect tropical moisture northward into our region. As this tropical air mass moves through our region, humid conditions return through the end of the week. Temperatures rise back into late-August normals with highs in the 80s and 90s Thursday with models depicting a cold front draping north to south across the Mid-Atlantic. As an upper- level low near Hudson Bay pushes this front across our region, chances for showers and thunderstorms return and could linger into the weekend. Best chances for stronger storms are Thursday and Friday depending on the timing of a short wave deepening an upper- level low over Ontario Canada. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Prevailing VFR conditions and westerly winds are expected at the terminals through Tuesday. A stray shower or storm can't be ruled out this afternoon into this evening, but chances are too low to mention in any of the TAFs. Light to gentle winds turn southerly Wednesday afternoon. Initial VFR conditions could deteriorate as showers and thunderstorms potentially move in Wednesday night. Additional showers and storms may be possible on Thursday with continued southerly winds. && .MARINE... West to northwesterly winds are forecast over the waters through Tuesday as high pressure gradually approaches from the Ohio Valley. A few sporadic gusts could near low-end SCA levels this afternoon. Winds shift southerly by Wednesday, with winds gusting above SCA thresholds later that evening in a classic southerly channeling event ahead of an approaching cold front. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tidal anomalies are expected to decrease over the course of the day today in westerly flow. Annapolis may reach Action Stage around high tide, but no tidal flooding is anticipated. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KRR/KJP/KVH AVIATION...KJP/KVH MARINE...KJP/KVH  246 FXUS61 KRNK 240107 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 907 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation Forecast Updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Drier cooler weather remains through the middle of the week, with next rain chances returning Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Drier cooler weather remains through the middle of the week, with next rain chances returning Thursday. High pressure and upper level troughing will remain over the eastern Conus through the middle of this upcoming work week. This will keep temperatures slightly cooler than average through the Tuesday of this week. By Wednesday, the upper level trough looks to finally get ejected to the northeast, which will raise 500mb heights across the region briefly. As this happens, the surface high pressure that looks to remain quasi- stationary across the region through Tuesday will slowly push east and allow the Bermuda surface high to take over. This will pump more moisture back into the region from the western Atlantic, and return the summer like humid airmass areawide by Wednesday. Again on late Wednesday, an upper level shortwave vorticity maxima looks to eject southeastward through the northern Great Lakes region. This shortwave looks to have a cold front associated with it at the surface that will bring rain chances back into the region by Thursday afternoon and evening. It's too soon at this time to know whether these storms will bring the chance for severe weather or flash flooding, as this will greatly depend on the timing associated with the passage of the aforementioned cold front. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are expected for a majority of the TAF period at all terminals, with possible brief periods of MVFR to IFR CIGs and VSBYs developing at LWB, BLF, and perhaps during the early morning hours Monday. These restrictions should quickly dissipate after sunrise given the dry airmass in place. Outside of those brief possible early morning fog and low clouds, there are no other restrictions expected. Winds will continue to remain out of the west/northwest through the TAF period, with sustained winds of 5-10 knots and gusts up to 20 knots expected through the afternoon and evening today before becoming calm overnight. Again on Monday winds look to pick up to 5-10 knots sustained, with gusts of only 10-15 knots forecast. OUTLOOK... Drier airmass will sink into the area today and remain into the middle of next week. Should be mainly VFR aside from any late night fog, mainly KLWB. Next system appears to bring some chances for storms Thursday with possibility for sub-VFR cigs/vsbys. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EB/SH AVIATION...EB/SH  807 FXUS61 KCAR 240115 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 915 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 915 pm update...Issued Dense Fog Advisory along the Downeast coast until 13z Monday morning. Would not be surprised if it needs to be expanded north during the overnight hours. Increased fog tonight (Sunday night) and Monday night. Increased chances for strong to possibly locally severe thunderstorms across the interior Tuesday afternoon. Increased confidence in strong convection Friday afternoon/evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Areas of dense fog tonight (Sunday night), and possibly again Monday night. Fog will impact travel conditions. 2) Chance of showers persists late this (Sunday) afternoon through Monday afternoon, with possibly thunderstorms in Northern Maine Monday afternoon. 3) Chance of showers and thunderstorms north of Bangor Tuesday and mainly across northern Aroostook Wednesday. 4) Thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening, some of which may be locally strong with gusty winds and small hail. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Areas of dense fog tonight (Sunday night), and possibly again Monday night. Fog will impact travel conditions. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Fog is the main concern. Dense fog was present Sunday morning especially near the coast. With the airmass getting even a bit moister, think that tonight will be a repeat performance, except areas further inland will have a better shot at getting the fog. The best chance of the dense fog is near the Downeast coast, but can't rule out significant fog further inland too. The fog should generally dissipate during the day Monday, but fog appears likely again Monday night. There may be a slightly later onset to the fog in the evening Monday compared to this (Sunday) evening, but still think the fog could be locally dense by later Monday night. KEY MESSAGE 2... Chance of showers persists late this (Sunday) afternoon through Monday afternoon, with possibly thunderstorms in Northern Maine Monday afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... As of 2pm Sunday afternoon, lots of clouds and low-level moisture, but not much more than drizzle. There are some heavier showers/storms south of our area that will move north into especially eastern portions of our area and bring another shot of showers later this afternoon into the evening. Can't rule out an embedded storm and some heavier downpours, but nothing remotely strong for thunderstorms, and no flooding, with a few places getting another quarter inch of rain or a bit more. Probably some drying later tonight into Monday morning, but with a bit of clearing, expect enough instability to showers and storms to fire off by about midday. Scattered showers/storms are expected, with the best chance being inland away from the more stable marine layer. That said, even in the wetter north, only going with a 40-60 percent chance of showers/storms, best chance in the western North Woods. Monday won't be a rainout by any means. Can't rule out a couple of the storms being on the stronger side with gusty winds, but this is a pretty minimal threat, and there is some uncertainty how many storms can fire in the first place. KEY MESSAGE 3... Chance of showers and thunderstorms north of Bangor Tuesday and mainly across northern Aroostook Wednesday. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... The axis of an upper level closed low that is gradually weakening as it passes to the north, then northeast Tuesday- Wednesday, should bring with it sufficient instability in the low-mid levels with its associated cold-pool aloft, that is should produce scattered to potentially numerous showers and isolated to scattered showers areawide on Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon, low to mid level lapse rates should be around 8-8.5C/km, with a few hundred J/kg of CAPE and around 35-45 kt of bulk shear. This should produce some strong to locally severe storms across the region north of Bangor. Wet bulb zero heights are around 7500-8500 ft away from the coast so the greatest risk would be small to possibly marginally severe hail. On Wednesday,as the upper low weakens and retreats to the northeast, the threat will be limited to the North, with low level lapse rates around 7.5-8 C/km, around 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE and around 20-30 kt of shear. Once again strong to possibly locally severe storms are possible with mainly isolated storms across northern Aroostook. The wetbulb zero height is a little higher 8500-9000 J/kg, but still low enough to support hail. With the stronger CAPE, the main threat is both strong winds and small to marginally severe hail in the strongest convection across the North on Wednesday. KEY MESSAGE 4... Thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening, some of which may be locally strong side with gusty winds and small hail. KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION... A cold front crosses the area Friday afternoon and evening on the leading edge of a full latitude trough pushing into the region, with the added support of a northern stream shortwave pushing through the trough around that time. With the potential for 500-1500 J/kg of CAPE and 25-35KT of bulk shear, there is a risk of some locally strong thunderstorms ahead of the front, with the main threat strong gusty winds. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tonight...Conditions deteriorating to LIFR or lower at all terminals with low clouds and fog. Fairly high confidence in these low conditions. Light winds. Monday...Conditions improving to VFR for most places by 18z, though MVFR/IFR could persist near the coast. Possibly an afternoon storm at northern terminals though not confident enough to include PROB30. S wind 5-15 kts with gusts to near 20kts in the afternoon. Monday Night...Conditions deteriorating to IFR or lower at all terminals. Highest confidence at BHB, BGR and HUL with at least 60 percent confidence in IFR prevailing. Light winds. Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible in any stronger convection north of KBGR. Chance of MVFR or lower early Tuesday morning at all terminals in low ceilings and/or fog. Tuesday night: VFR. Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible in any stronger convection at KFVE/KCAR/KPQI, otherwise VFR. Wednesday night-Thursday night: VFR. LLWS possible Thursday night. Friday: VFR in the morning, then MVFR or lower possible in any showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon. LLWS possible. S winds G15-20KT possible. && .MARINE... Fog over the waters through Monday night. S/SE winds 15 kts or less and seas 2-4 ft. A few storms possible over the waters late this afternoon into early this evening. Sustained winds of 15 kt or less and seas of 4 ft or less are forecast on all waters out to 60NM from Tuesday through Friday. There is a chance for dense fog on the waters Tuesday morning, reducing visibility to less than 1 nm. There is the chance for thunderstorms over the waters late on Friday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT Monday for MEZ029-030. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...21/TF/PM AVIATION...21/TF/PM  913 FXUS61 KBUF 240117 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 917 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Cool weather and periodic showers and thunderstorms, some of the lake-effect variety, are expected through Tuesday. 2.) Dry weather expected region-wide this Tuesday night through Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Cool weather and periodic showers and thunderstorms, some of the lake-effect variety, are expected through Tuesday. Aloft, a low should wobble ENE'ward from the northern Great Lakes to near the Gulf of St. Lawrence the rest of today through Tuesday. In response, cyclonic flow, initially SW'erly to W'erly over our region, veers to NW'erly overnight tonight into Monday and then remains NW'erly through Tuesday. Shortwave disturbances embedded in the cyclonic flow will continue to impact Western and Central NY. At the surface, a cold front was located near I-81 at 1:35 PM EDT. This front will continue moving E'ward and should exit the rest of our CWA by 4 PM at the latest. Behind the front, a lake-aggregate trough is expected to persist through Monday night and then a high pressure ridge will begin to build from the western and central Great Lakes on Tuesday. Net low-level CAA will impact our region behind the cold front. Accordingly, late afternoon highs should reach the mid 60's to mid 70's today and Tuesday, respectively. In between, Monday is expected to feature highs only in the 60's to lower 70's courtesy of colder 850 mb temperatures and rather abundant cloud cover, including diurnal cumuliform clouds. Overnight lows should reach mainly the upper 40's to upper 50's around daybreak Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, respectively. Outside lake-effect precip (details below), isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected the rest of today through Monday night as low-level convergence/moist ascent along the cold front and surface trough axes accompanying the shortwave disturbances release at least weak potential instability in the lowest ~1 km AGL and weak boundary layer CAPE stemming from daytime warming through this early evening and again late Monday morning through early evening. Behind the cold front, scattered lake-effect rain showers and thunderstorms have already developed over/downwind of Lake Erie and over much of Lake Ontario. Lake-effect rain showers and thunderstorms with periods of heavy rainfall will continue through Monday night as synoptic-scale low-level moisture remains deep/abundant and 850 mb temperatures around 8C to 10C continue to become established over/downwind of ~23C to ~24C Lakes Erie and Ontario, behind the cold front. Those factors will yield sizable lake-induced CAPE and lake-induced EL's around 20kft to perhaps 30kft above lake level. The passage of the aforementioned shortwave troughs will cause mean low-level flow direction to vary over and downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Accordingly, lake-effect precip should primarily stream ESE'ward or SE'ward from Lake Erie through Monday night. However, a period of W'erly to WSW'erly mean low-level flow should allow lake-effect precip to stream E'ward or ENE'ward from the lake during most of the predawn and daylight hours of Monday. This lake-effect precip should remain south of Buffalo. As for Lake Ontario, mean low-level flow should allow lake-effect precip to impact locations generally northeast of the lake through Monday afternoon, before the precip shifts S'ward and eventually settles southeast of the lake Monday evening through Monday night as a shortwave trough axis passage causes mean low-level flow to veer from SW'erly to NW'erly over/downwind of the lake. Note: lake-effect precip is expected to be most-organized tonight into Monday morning and again Monday night into Tuesday morning, when nocturnal cooling will allow Lakes Erie and Ontario to be the primary sources of warmth, moisture, and instability. On Tuesday, lake-effect rain showers and thunderstorms are expected to stream generally SE'ward from Lakes Erie and Ontario, but decrease in coverage/intensity and end by nightfall as the building surface ridge is accompanied by synoptic-scale low-level dry air advection, a lowering subsidence inversion, and increase in directional low-level vertical wind shear, which will all act to decrease lake-induced CAPE. Primarily dry weather is expected outside the lake-effect precip, but a few showers may accompany the passage of additional shortwave troughs/attendant surface trough axes coinciding with weak potential instability in the lowest ~1 km AGL. Key Message 2...Dry weather expected region-wide this Tuesday night through Wednesday. The high pressure ridge at the surface and aloft will build from the central Great Lakes Tuesday night and then begin to exit toward New England on Wednesday. Dry weather is expected as stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge. Considerable clearing, low humidity, and weak surface winds should allow lows to reach mainly the mid 40's to mid 50's around daybreak Wednesday. Mainly clear to party cloudy sky and net low-level WAA along the western flank of the surface ridge should allow highs to rebound to mainly the mid 70's to lower 80's late Wednesday afternoon. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A mid-level low will continue to meander eastward across southern Ontario through the nighttime. This will keep colder air aloft and shower activity around, though not to the degree it has been during the daytime. As diurnal heating returns on Monday, shower and even some thunderstorm activity will increase. As cold advection continues, cloud bases will likely lower to MVFR at all sites during the day on Monday as well. Outlook... Monday night through Tuesday night...Lake effect rain, mainly east and southeast of the Lakes with associated restrictions diminishing off Lake Erie Monday night into Tuesday and off Lake Ontario Tuesday/Tuesday night. Otherwise mainly VFR. Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR, except MVFR/IFR conditions possible from scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. && .MARINE... Behind a cold front passage today, an upper-level low will bring an early taste of autumn with brisk winds developing, courtesy of a decently strong pressure gradient and moderate instability over the lakes. SW'erly to W'erly winds around 15 to 25 knots will result in choppy waters through Monday night on Lake Erie and through Tuesday on Lake Ontario. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements remain in effect. Lake- effect rain showers and thunderstorms may produce waterspouts through Tuesday, amidst sizable lake-induced instability as cool air associated with cyclonic flow around an upper-level low crosses the warm lakes. Quieter marine conditions are expected Tuesday night through Wednesday as a high pressure ridge builds from the western and central Great Lakes. During Wednesday night through Thursday, the ridge should exit E'ward, allow a warm front to sweep NE'ward across Lakes Erie and Ontario, and cause SE'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots to veer to S'erly to SW'erly. Waves should be 3 feet or less. On Friday, a cold front should sweep E'ward across Lakes Erie and Ontario and cause S'erly to SW'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots to veer to W'erly to NW'erly. Waves should remain 3 feet or less. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for NYZ001>007. Beach Hazards Statement through late Monday night forNYZ010- 019-085. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LOZ042>045. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jaszka AVIATION...Fries MARINE...Jaszka/Thomas  105 FXHW60 PHFO 240147 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 347 PM HST Sun Aug 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Locally strong and gusty trade winds will ease slightly on Monday as Tropical Storm Moke passes several hundred miles south of the islands. Moisture along the northern periphery of Moke will bring wet conditions and a risk of flash flooding on the Big Island, while less rainfall is expected to impact windward sections from Maui to Kauai over the next couple of days. Trade winds will drop to moderate strength on Tuesday as Moke moves westward away from the area, with drier trade wind weather returning for the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Locally strong and gusty trades winds continue statewide, and wet conditions prevail on windward Big Island as moisture along the northern periphery of Tropical Storm Moke brushes the southern end of the island chain. The exposed low level center marking the center of Moke is currently centered over 300 miles south- southwest of Kailua-Kona, while deep moisture being sheared to the north of the system is largely skirting just south of Big Island. This has kept rainfall on windward Big Island at light to moderate intensity today, limiting rainfall to less than one inch during the past 12 hours and less than a half of an inch in Kau and much of windward Maui. While the wind field surrounding Moke is well south of the islands, the tropical storm is helping to produce a rather tight pressure gradient over the state. The resulting breezy trades are enhanced over and just south of terrain, especially on portions of Big Island and Maui County where gusts of around 50 mph are supporting a Wind Advisory. A flood threat will continue for the Big Island through Monday, and winds will remain elevated through this evening. As Moke continues to move westward, low- to mid-level flow on the Big Island will shift out of the east to east-southeast, which could optimize orographic lift and increase rainfall on windward and southeast slopes. The guidance continues to show large variation in potential total precipitation, meaning that confidence is lower than normal, but the main window for flooding will be through early Monday morning on windward areas, with a chance for spotty afternoon showers to produce localized flooding across the Kona Districts. A Flood Watch is posted for Big Island through Monday afternoon. Elsewhere in the state, expect somewhat wet conditions windward, with passing showers leeward on gusty trades. The Wind Advisory for portions of Big Island and Maui County has been extended through midnight to account for lingering strong winds this evening. Later tonight and Monday, trades will gradually lower as departing Moke allows the local pressure gradient to slowly relax. Drier conditions will develop on Tuesday as trades fall to moderate strength. Expect much of the coming week to feature typical trade wind weather, with showers favoring windward slopes. && .AVIATION... Tropical Storm Moke was centered nearly 300 hundred miles south of the Big Island and continued on its westward track. Rain bands from the tropical storm will impact windward Big Island through tonight, which will bring MVFR and periods of IFR conditions to the area. Trade winds are expected to be moderate to locally strong statewide. Outside of windward Big Island, showers embedded within the trade wind flow will primarily impact windward and mountain areas, bringing periods of MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR will prevail. AIRMET Tango is in effect for low level turbulence downwind of terrain due to the strengthened trade winds. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscurations over windward portion of the islands. An AIRMET for IFR conditions over portions of windward Big Island is also a possibility tonight. TC SIGMET series XRAY covers Tropical Storm Moke and its convection. && .MARINE... Fresh to locally strong winds will hold across all waters through tonight as Tropical Storm Moke passes far south of the island chain and a broad high pressure remains north of the state. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the offshore waters. Intense convection associated with this storm will remain over the southern portion of the offshore waters as this system tracks west and exits the region by Monday. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for all waters has been extended through 6 AM HST Monday. Some areas of the coastal waters should drop out of the SCA Monday as TS Moke shifts west of state easing the pressure gradient across the state. Moderate to locally strong trades should return by Monday night or Tuesday. Higher winds and short period wind wave swell generated by TS Moke appears to have peaked over the eastern half of the state. Surf along east and east-southeast facing shores should trend down a notch by Monday as TS Moke tracks west of the state but will still be elevated and choppy and strong trades hold. Surf along most south-facing shores will be slightly below summer norms but still remain somewhat elevated due to a lingering small, long period south southwest swell. A three to four foot, medium to long period south swell is expected to arrive Monday and Tuesday which will maintain these near summertime heights. Small, medium to long period west to north swell originating from Hurricane Lala is passing around north and west-facing coasts has peaked and should trend down Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Locally strong and gusty trades will ease later tonight and Monday, while humidity remains higher than normal due to moisture on the northern periphery of Tropical Storm Moke brushing the state. Heavy rain is expected on windward and southeast slopes of the Big Island, while lower rainfall totals are expected over other windward areas. The inversion will be weak to non-existent into Monday. A typical summertime trade wind pattern will return by Tuesday. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until midnight HST tonight for Lanai Mauka- Kahoolawe-Maui Leeward West-Kohala-Big Island Interior-Molokai Southeast-Molokai North-Molokai West-Molokai Leeward South-Lanai Windward-Lanai Leeward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Windward Haleakala-South Haleakala-Big Island South- Big Island Southeast-Big Island North. Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for Big Island- Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for all Hawaiian waters- && $$ DISCUSSION...Wroe AVIATION...Munroe MARINE...Almanza FIRE WEATHER...Wroe  092 FXUS61 KCTP 240147 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 947 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Severe threat for today is winding down, but a gusty thunderstorm can not be ruled out in NW PA tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Upper low over the Great Lakes will move southeast tonight then pull off to the northeast Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will move through the northern tier periodically through early Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Upper low over the Great Lakes will move southeast tonight then pull off to the northeast Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will move through the northern tier periodically through early Tuesday. A 70 kt jet max at 500 mb rounding the base of the upper trough over the Great Lakes will provide deep synoptic lift for an area of rain with embedded thunderstorms pivoting across NW PA tonight. Storms have been severe warned in Ohio as they have come off Lake Erie, but they are expected to weaken significantly as they move southeastward towards central PA. There is some degree of west-east training with these storms, so northwestern Warren Co may end up seeing as much as 0.75-1.00 of rain, mostly falling before 2 AM. Less rainfall is expected to the south and east, with little to none south of I-80 and east of the Laurels. We expect less coverage of SHRA/TSRA Monday without good PVA moving across. However, the cold pool aloft and heating should make isolated to scattered convection along at least the northern tier. It is unlikely that any precip will get south of I-80, but there will be plenty of clouds. Some showers will linger into the night and possibly early Tuesday before drier air works in as the upper trough departs. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Upper level trough swinging across the area along with a west to southwest flow over the Great Lakes will continue to bring clouds and periods of rain mainly across the Laurels and northwestern PA. Weather pattern more typical of late September than late August. A band of steady rain will be on a weakening trend as it moves inland from the Lake Erie shoreline, but may still bring low MVFR to IFR conds at BFD between 0230z and 06z. JST, UNV, and IPT are also likely to pick up at least some showers with this band, but lesser impacts. Behind the area of rain, lower cigs are likely to set in with mostly MVFR conditions, although drops to IFR are possible at BFD and JST just before daybreak (50 pct chc). For Monday, isolated showers and possibly a thundershower remain in the forecast across the northern tier. Cumulus and stratocu will build through the day, but bases will generally rise to VFR levels in the afternoon. MVFR cigs are expected to linger longest at BFD. Outlook... Tue...MVFR cigs possible in the AM across the NW, then trending VFR. Wed...Patchy morning fog, otherwise mainly VFR conditions. Thu-Fri...Chance of showers and storms again, mainly Thursday PM. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Colbert DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Colbert AVIATION...Colbert  153 FXAK68 PAFC 240150 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 550 PM AKDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Wednesday)... The patchy fog that developed across parts of Southcentral this morning has since eroded thanks to drier air working in from the north along with plenty of sunshine and temperatures well into the 60s across much of the region. Gusty winds persist for a few coastal locations such as Seward and Whittier, due to a tighter pressure gradient between a low over the Gulf and a ridge of high pressure building in from the northwest. With mainly clear skies and weak winds overnight, low temperatures are likely to fall into low to mid 40s for many locations. Early morning low temperatures may even fall into the 30s for typically cooler locations, especially across the Copper River Valley. The added radiational cooling due to light winds and minimal cloud cover may also lead to a return of patchy fog Monday morning. Fog development, however, is likely to be less widespread than the previous morning due to the drier airmass working in along with today's sunshine and warmer temperatures helping to dry things out. Monday will start off similar to today as the upper ridge shifts east into Southcentral. However, cloud cover will begin to increase as the day progresses, especially across the western half of the region. This will mark the beginning of our next rain-maker late Monday night through Wednesday. By Monday night, southwesterly flow with a deep fetch of moisture from the Pacific will develop out ahead of a extensive frontal system progressing across the Bering and western Mainland. This feature will extend into Southcentral as the ridge in place begins to slump south and lose amplitude. Several weak impulses riding with the strong southwesterlies will combine with warm, moist advection to generate light, steady rainfall spreading across the Kenai Peninsula and Mat-Su Valleys by late Monday night. More widespread rain will spread across nearly all of Southcentral on Tuesday as a potent, negatively-tilted shortwave trough riding along the frontal zone arrives from Southwest and produces deeper lift along the main moisture axis. As the trough and front move inland over the Interior and Southwest, a strong south-north pressure gradient will develop across Southcentral, supporting strong and gusty gap winds out of the Copper River Valley, Knik Valley and Turnagain Arm for much of the day on Tuesday. The highest rainfall amounts, on the order of 1 inch of more, will likely occur across the northern and east portions of the Susitna Valley, where the upslope flow helps to wring out additional moisture. Lesser amounts are likely for locations in the lee of the mountains and where the strongest gap winds occur. The precipitation will come an end from west to east through Wednesday morning, with the potential for showers to linger across the Talkeetna Mountains Wednesday afternoon and evening as a trailing shortwave moves along the Alaska Range. As the main weather system departs, expect another round of offshore flow and gusty winds for Whittier and Seward, similar to the winds observed today. -TM/AS && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)... An active pattern continues across the Bering Sea and Southwest Alaska through the middle of the week. A well-defined upper-low over the Bering continues to progress eastward today, with an associated shortwave and broad cyclonic flow spreading toward the Southwest coast. Increasing south to southwesterly flow ahead of this system will continue to transport moisture northward across the region, supporting periods of rain from the Aleutians and Bering into Southwest Alaska. Winds will also remain elevated across portions of the Bering and Aleutians as the pressure gradient tightens around the associated surface low. By Monday, the upper low shifts farther east toward Southwest Alaska while becoming increasingly elongated. Continued cyclonic flow and embedded shortwaves will maintain unsettled conditions across much of Southwest Alaska, with periods of rain and generally cloudy conditions expected. Farther west, precipitation becomes more showery across the Bering and Aleutians and gusty winds will also persist, particularly across the eastern Bering and along portions of the Southwest coast. The upper low continues eastward across Southwest Alaska Tuesday as the trough axis gradually moves inland. Showery conditions will linger beneath the cold pool aloft, though precipitation should become increasingly scattered from west to east as the system begins to pull away. Meanwhile, a transient area of weak ridging develops across the western and central Bering, allowing for a relative decrease in precipitation and winds for a time. Attention then turns westward again Wednesday as another upper- level low approaches the western Bering and Aleutians. Guidance shows some differences in the exact strength and track of this next system, but the overall pattern favors another increase in southerly flow, precipitation, and winds spreading into the western Aleutians and bering through the forecast period. Farther east, Southwest Alaska should see a relative break in the more widespread precipitation as the previous system departs, though lingering showers will remain possible. Overall, the pattern remains progressive through midweek, with only a brief relative lull between systems. Forecast confidence decreases somewhat by Wednesday as guidance differs on the strength and exact track of the next Bering low, though another round of increasing winds and precipitation across the Aleutians and Bering remains favorable. LM && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)... The long-term pattern will remain active across the Bering Sea as progressive west-to-east flow continues. Confidence remains high that a strong system off of the Kamchatka Coast Thursday will move to near Saint Lawrence Island by Friday. Strong southerly to southwesterly winds, small-craft to gale-force will move from the Bering to the Kuskokwim Delta Coast by Thursday afternoon, along with moderate to heavy rain with an atmospheric river accompanying this system. Moderate to heavy rain along the Pribilof Islands and portions of the Western and Central Aleutians will move to inland portions of Southwest Alaska through Thursday night and Friday morning. Light to moderate rain will also move across the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula through Friday. Southcentral Alaska will eventually get in on the rain by Friday. Prior to this rain, Southcentral will have experienced a relatively nice and quiet Thursday. For now, it looks like the heaviest of the rain will fall across Southwest with this system with light to moderate rain across Southcentral. Pockets of heavier rain along the northern Gulf Coast are possible Friday night into Saturday. River levels across the Susitna Valley, such as the Yentna River at Lake Creek will have to be monitored closely with this system for potential flooding concerns. Steady rain across Southwest will taper to showers from west to east through the day on Saturday as the low tracks into Western Alaska from Norton Sound. Steady rain across Southcentral will move east to the Panhandle through Saturday as a low in the Gulf also moves east. Moisture wrapping around this low will allow rain to linger along the northern Gulf Coast into Sunday with scattered showers across the rest of Southcentral. Showers continue along the mountain ranges across Southwest for Sunday. Another system, weaker than the Friday system, moves into the western Bering by Saturday and spreads rain across the Western and Central Aleutians through Sunday morning. Rain also makes it to the Pribilof Islands Sunday morning as well. Winds with this system, as of now, are trending to be small-craft or less. && .AVIATION... PANC... High pressure will build in overnight, leading to the possibility of fog and low stratus. The chances of reduced visibilities are low due to overcast skies left behind by the parting trough. && $$  284 FXUS62 KTAE 240154 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 954 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 950 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Daily chances of showers and storms will continue for the next several days. Overall, rain chances are lowest for today, then increase through the workweek. The strongest storms are expected to produce wind gusts of 40-60 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rain. An SPC Marginal Risk of severe storms is in effect through Tuesday. - Another heat advisory may be needed for Monday across our Florida counties. && .UPDATE... Issued at 950 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The only changes of note to tonight's forecast were to introduce mentionable PoP for a decaying thunderstorm cluster pushing south across Apalachee Bay and adding "patchy fog" to the point-and- click wx grids for parts of the Eastern FL Big Bend into the I-75 corridor. Some isolated showers may develop some tonight later tonight near the AL Wiregrass into the Western FL Panhandle thanks to the presence of a lingering frontal boundary. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Monday) Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 An SPC Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms remains in effect for the rest of today into the evening. Although a watch is not anticipated, low level lapse rates and PW will be sufficient in a northwest flow regime to allow for wet microbursts to produce marginally damaging winds in isolated storms through this evening. A stalled front to the north and existing outflow boundaries are potential triggering mechanisms. Coverage of storms will increase on Monday and another SPC Marginal Risk for severe storms is already in place due to the continued combination of a northwest flow regime, deep moisture and low level instability. A WPC Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall is also in place. Uncertainty in timing of development of convection and associated cloud cover precludes the issuance of a heat advisory at this time, especially considering how the current advisory is not panning out. However, forecast heat indices currently support one for our FL counties as well as South GA from Lowndes County east along the FL border to Lake Seminole. The overnight shift will reassess. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Tuesday and Wednesday will be carbon copies of Monday with SPC and WPC marginal risks in place. Heat advisory criteria does not appear in jeopardy. Rain chances will increase for Thursday and Friday as a front approaches from the northwest. Near normal rain chances and temperatures are forecast for the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 950 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Today's convection, albeit limited, is dying off with the loss of daytime heating and will steer clear of the terminals for the rest of tonight. Around sunrise, guidance points to a corridor with potential for Mist/BR from TLH to VLD, which will be near the northern edge of richer moisture in the morning. The air mass will moisten a bit on Monday, and a weak stalled front will be draped close to the Florida state line. This will be a recipe for greater coverage of convection on Monday afternoon at all terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Gentle to occasionally moderate southwesterly flow will continue over the waters for the next several days. Scattered showers and storms are possible each day, mainly in the overnight and morning hours, decreasing in the afternoon. The main exception will be for any clusters of storms that move off the coast this week during the late afternoon or evening hours. Seas will remain around 1 to 2 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Generally light west to southwest transport winds will continue through the next several days. Dispersions will remain good overall each afternoon. Increasing coverage of storms are expected Monday and Tuesday. Gusty, erratic winds and dangerous lightning strikes will be possible. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 There is a WPC Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall across the region from Monday through Thursday. Storms could produce locally heavy rainfall over the next several days. If the storms are slow- moving, then they could produce several inches of rain in a short period of time. This would lead to some nuisance to isolated flash flood concerns, particularly in low- lying or poor drainage areas. River flooding is not expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 75 97 75 93 / 10 50 50 80 Panama City 79 92 78 90 / 10 20 60 70 Dothan 74 95 73 93 / 10 60 40 50 Albany 74 97 73 95 / 10 30 40 30 Valdosta 74 97 73 94 / 10 50 40 70 Cross City 75 95 74 92 / 0 30 50 80 Apalachicola 80 92 78 89 / 10 30 50 70 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...IG3 SHORT TERM...Wool LONG TERM....Wool AVIATION...Haner MARINE...Wool FIRE WEATHER...Wool HYDROLOGY...Wool  443 FXUS63 KABR 240158 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 858 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) across central SD and a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) along and west of the James River this evening. The main concerns will be golf ball size hail, wind gusts exceeding 60 mph, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall. - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather Monday night. Threat include one golf ball size hail and 60-75 mph gusts. && .UPDATE... Issued at 856 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Severe storm activity has been confined to northwest SD this evening as cells continue to move south-southeast over UNR CWA. Will maintain small PoPs (20-30%) across the western CWA this evening, but even this might be a bit overdone. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A weak upper level trough of low pressure currently over western ND still may become the focal point for showers and storms impacting the western CWA later this evening. A few showers and storms are ongoing, with some model guidance suggesting modest intensity over the next few hours. However, the best low level moisture and instability is located mainly west of the CWA, with SBCAPE exceeding 1K J/kg over western SD. Across much of eastern ND, and northeastern SD, surface dewpoints in the 50s with limited moisture advection at this time. As of now, the RRFS is the more robust model solution with convection developing over the western Dakotas. The storms in western SD move eastward toward the CWA around 23-0Z before diminishing. It still maintains a convection complex over southwest ND moving southward into north central SD after 1Z. The lack of a LLJ may limit the overall severe threat with the RRFS showing the storms weakening with time. The past few runs of the HRRR keeps most of the CWA free from severe weather. Overall, the severe threat is best west of the Missouri River where a few storms may produce golf ball size hail and 60-75 mph wind gusts. The pcpn should exit the CWA before 12Z Monday. A frontal boundary will cross the region Monday through Monday night may produce an isolated storm during the day period. Models due indicate convection developing after 0Z Tuesday, with eastern ND having a good potential for storms. A lee of the Black Hills surface low may cause additional storms over central and south central SD. While widespread severe weather is not anticipated, a stronger storm or two could produce golf ball size hail and wind gusts of 60 to 75 mph. After dry conditions midweek, chances for precipitation returns to the forecast area Thursday night through the weekend. Temperatures remain at or above average for this time of year. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are generally forecast through the TAF period. Only exception to this would be any TSRA activity that manages to moves into north central SD (KMBG region) later this evening. Have a PROB30 (03Z-07Z) for this potential currently. Brief MVFR/IFR VSBY is possible in any heavier downpours that happen to move over the TAF site. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TMT DISCUSSION...17 AVIATION...TMT