605 FXUS63 KJKL 142101 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 501 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures remain mild through Thursday, while showers are possible at times into Friday. - A few thunderstorms capable of locally heavy rain and strong wind gusts are possible this evening. - Much cooler weather arrives for the weekend - likely the coldest we have experienced so far this autumn. This poses a risk for frost on Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 445 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026 Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge extended across portions of the Southeastern Conus and into sections of the Gulf. Further west an upper level low was over the Four Corners vicinity. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough/MCV was moving through the OH Valley and interacting with a boundary sagging toward the Commonwealth. With the ridge in place to the south, it was another day of record or near record warmth in eastern KY with highs having reached into the 80s in most locations. At JKL, the high so far has been 86, breaking the previous record of 82 from 2017/2021. Showers and a few storms associated with the sagging cold front and the shortwave trough/MCV passing by to the north have moved into northern sections of the region over the past couple of hours. Low level lapse rates are analyzed around 6.5 to 7C/km in the north with mid level lapse rates a bit on the meager side in the 5.5 to 6C/km range. MLCAPE across the region is analyzed on the modest side in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range while effective shear per SPC mesoanalysis page is on the order of 25 to 30KT in the north. PW meanwhile was recently analyzed near 1.3 inches along the VA border and around 1.9 inches in the far northwest. Upstream of the area, a wind gust to 39 mph was observed at the KY Mesonet site in northern Fayette County. This evening and tonight, the shortwave trough/MCV working through the OH Valley will move east of the area during the evening while the upper low initially over the Four Corners region should move into northeastern CO. Meanwhile further north, a shortwave will move southeast from Alberta across sections of Saskatchewan and into Manitoba and the Northern Plains. At the same time, the frontal zone will sag into eastern KY and stall out over the middle of the region. With PW expected to remain elevated and increase to the 1.9 to 2.1 inch range or in the 97th to 99th percentile range, if any training of thunderstorms were to occur it could result in locally heavier rain. With some modest instability in place as well, a storm or two this evening could result in a strong wind gust. In general, this potential is greatest near and north of the Mtn Parkway. WPC has a slight ERO in the northern sections of the area while northern areas are also in a marginal SWODY1. Otherwise, near and behind the sagging front, lowering clouds and patchy fog or stratus build down should occur as the night progresses and this will linger into Thursday morning with the boundary in the vicinity. Showers remain possible tonight near the boundary as well. For Thursday and Thursday night, the upper low that will have reached CO late tonight should weaken to an open wave and eventually merge with the trough to its north during this timeframe. This resulting 500 mb trough axis should reach Ontario to the western Great Lakes to Central Plains through late Thursday night. As this occurs, a sfc low should track from sections of the Plains to the Central to eastern Great Lakes through Thursday night. The boundary that will have stalled over eastern KY will lift back north as a warm front, while a cold front enters the Commonwealth on Thursday night. Shower chances linger into Thursday nearthe boundary before it moves north Thursday evening. A thunderstorm cannot be ruled out as well. South of the boundary, temperatures will remain mild, with highs likely to climb back well into the 80s for Thursday highs. With the front approaching, winds and gusts should increase late particularly in the west. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 541 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026 The long term forecast period is defined by a significant change in sensible weather conditions across eastern Kentucky. While the period begins Thursday night with unusually mild conditions overnight, a potent cold front should sweep through the area early Friday and usher in a noticeably cooler and drier airmass for the weekend. In fact, Saturday's forecast features the coldest temperatures of the season thus far. A widespread frost is looking increasingly likely on Saturday night, but temperatures are forecast to moderate back towards climatological norms under fair skies early next week. The period begins with a sharp trough ejecting southeast out of Canada, phasing with a leeward Rocky Mountain trough to yield a deeper, positively-tilted feature over the Upper Midwest on Thursday evening. Vertically-stacked southwesterly flow around the base of that trough will advect warm air into the atmospheric column over the Ohio River Valley. The aforementioned boundary is accordingly forecast to lift back north as a warm front on Thursday night, and a deepening surface low should emerge over the Great Lakes by Friday morning. In response to the tightening pressure gradient, winds will become breezy overnight. This will prevent the area's conventional ridge-valley splits from materializing in this time frame, as the boundary layer should remain well mixed. Given the lack of decoupling and the warm air advection regime in place, Thursday night's temperature forecast looks unseasonably mild. Expect a muted diurnal heating curve, with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Friday's high temperatures will be pretty similar to Thursday night's lows, as the cold front associated with this system will be on the doorstep of the JKL CWA on Friday morning. (In fact, latest modeling suggests that in some locations Friday's high temperatures will occur at or shortly after midnight.) There should be enough forced lift for some generic rain showers over the CWA during and after Friday's frontal passage, but the greatest impacts from this boundary will stem from its cold air advection. The sharp nature of the parent troughing aloft and the fairly tight surface pressure gradient in this set up collectively suggest that there will be a pronounced shift from breezy southwesterly winds to gustier northwesterly winds as frontal passage occurs on Friday. Northwesterly wind gusts in the 20-30 mph range are likely on Friday afternoon/evening before the pressure gradient weakens overnight. The winds will retain their northwesterly orientation through Saturday morning, which will help them usher a noticeably cooler and drier airmass into the region for the weekend. That efficient cold air advection may actually cause temperatures to decrease during the afternoon hours on Friday, with widespread temps in the 50s by Friday evening and the upper 30s to 40s on Saturday morning. Northerly winds associated with a post-frontal surface high will keep the cold air advection going on Saturday. High temps will struggle to make it out of the 50s, and afternoon dewpoints should plummet towards the low/mid 30s area-wide. Under mostly clear skies and slackening winds, Saturday night looks to be the coldest night of the season thus far. Efficient radiational cooling and those dry dewpoint values favor widespread low temperatures in the 30s and frost potential in more than just the typical cold spots. Near-freezing temperatures cannot be ruled out in the most sheltered and shadiest valley locales, but a widespread freeze appears unlikely. Nevertheless, frost/freeze headline products will need to be considered as this time frame approaches and forecast confidence continues to improve. Agricultural interests and recreational gardeners are accordingly encouraged to review any relevant frost preparedness plans and stay tuned for potential product issuance. The progressive nature of the overarching synoptic weather pattern prevents this chillier air from becoming permanent. It is not winter yet, and winter precipitation is not expected. The postfrontal high should shift east on Sunday as the previous trough axis aloft swings through New England. Modeled height rises amidst a building ridge suggest that temperatures will moderate under fair skies in the latter stages of the forecast period. Expect highs to rebound into the 60s on Sunday and then towards the 70 degree mark early next week. Dewpoints will be slow to recover to the pre-frontal values forecast at the beginning of the period, but the approach of a southern-stream shortwave trough on Monday should return some moisture to the column by Monday night into Tuesday. So, while an additional round of patchy frost is possible in the coldest valleys on Sunday night, Eastern Kentucky's typical autumnal river valley fog should return to the forecast on Monday night. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026 Prevailing VFR was occurring at issuance time and is expected to continue to begin the period. Some low clouds and cumulus had developed in advance of a cold front, with additional cloud cover upstream in association with convection with an approaching shortwave trough and cold front. Showers and scattered thunderstorms with some brief reductions to MVFR or perhaps briefly lower are anticipated to develop during the first 6 hours of the period and affect locations mainly north of a KSJS to KJKL to KLOZ to KSME line. As the boundary gradually sags into eastern KY tonight, widespread MVFR or lower should develop by the 06Z to 12Z timeframe generally for areas near and north of a KSME to KLOZ to KJKL to KSJS. Showers will remain possible with the boundary stalled over the area during the last 6 hours of the period and reductions to MVFR and IFR are anticipated for KSJS to KJKL and north and mainly VFR to the south. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...MARCUS/CMC AVIATION...JP  722 FXUS65 KABQ 142103 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 303 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 302 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - The first freeze of the season for the upper Rio Grande Valley, including Taos, is forecast late tonight into Thursday morning. - A backdoor cold front will sweep south and west across the area Thursday, creating strong north winds across eastern NM on Thursday and strong east canyon or gap winds into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys Thursday evening. - The first freeze of the season is forecast Thursday night for areas from Raton, to Las Vegas, to Moriarty and Clines Corners. && .UPDATE... Issued at 302 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Quick update to drop today's high temps a little bit more from KCAO to KTCC. Updates already out. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 152 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 The upper low now just north of the Four Corners will continue to influence NM weather over the next 36 hours. This upper low will continue to shift northeastward over CO through early Thursday. A dry slot has rounded the high and punched through NM from SW to NE as evident on satellite imagery. Thus, storms will continue to decrease in coverage through the afternoon, however, a few storms will persist across north central NM just ahead of the upper low, while others may form near the OK or TX border and quickly shift northeastward into TX. Rainfall amounts will continue to be light. Otherwise, breezy to locally windy conditions will persist through early evening as a Pacific cold front moves from west to east across the area. Southwest winds will gradually become more westerly across central and western NM and gusts between 25 and 40 mph will be common. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front over NE NM this morning will continue to loiter over the area today, keeping temperatures up to 20 degrees colder than yesterday around KCAO. Speaking of temps, high temperatures across western NM will be 10 to 15 degrees colder than yesterday as well. Surface winds will become more northwesterly this evening and overnight across central and western NM, and a few breezes will persist, especially around KCQC. However, winds are expected to drop off overnight across the upper Rio Grande Valley. Strong radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop below freezing for the first time in this area, including around Taos. A Freeze Warning remains in effect for this zone. As the aforementioned upper low shifts into the northern Great Plains, the backdoor cold front loitering around NE NM will be reinforced with a stronger front. This reinforcement will enter NE NM Thursday morning before quickly sliding southward across the plains. With H7 winds increasing to between 45 and 50kt during the aftn, confidence is high that strong winds will be noted behind the front across NE NM. A Wind Advisory has been issued for this area from noon to midnight for wind gusts between 50 and 55 mph. This Wind Advisory may be expanded southward for strong winds Thursday evening and into the overnight hours, especially around Curry and Roosevelt counties, but cannot rule out much of eastern NM. Of greater confidence continues to be strong winds below gaps in the Rio Grande Valley and upper Tularosa Valley as the front pushes through the Central Mountain Chain Thursday night. Wind gusts between 50 and 65 mph remain likely with the peak winds generally between 9pm and midnight. MET and MAV wind guidance have been trending downward for winds at KABQ, which may result in the High Wind Watch becoming a Wind Advisory for the metro with gusts of 50-55 mph, but confidence is higher that it will become a High Wind Warning farther south with gusts of 58-65 mph. Will let the night crew take another look before deciding how to upgrade the watch. Regardless of the eventual product, it continues to look very windy. The front will also usher in much cooler temperatures. The first freeze of the season is expected from areas from Raton, to Las Vegas, to Moriarty and Clines Corners Thursday night. Western Union County will likely also see freezing temperatures. Santa Fe will be close as well, but should stay just above freezing. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 152 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Friday's high temperatures will be 5 to 20 degrees below normal areawide following the backdoor front. Winds will slowly decrease during the morning hours, though breezy conditions will persist through the rest of the day. A widespread freeze is expected Friday night under excellent radiational cooling conditions. For those areas that will freeze tonight and/or Thursday night, a hard freeze is likely Friday night. Though the ABQ Sunport will likely stay above freezing, areas around KAEG and Belen may see sub-freezing temperatures. KROW, KTCC, Socorro and KFMN will be close to freezing, but could stay just above. While the upper low mentioned above shifted toward the northern Great Plains, a baggy trough that was left behind closed into a low and retrograded to the west of northern Baja California. Over the weekend and into Monday, this feature will weaken and gradually shift northeastward. A few showers or thunderstorms may develop across western NM each day but coverage will be spotty at best. Temperatures will gradually rise back toward normal by Monday. All eyes will then be on the next upper low that dives southward along the west coast Tuesday. Depending on it's position, moisture may increase with enhanced southerly flow, or if the low is too far west, weak ridging may dominate NM. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 IFR to MVFR cigs have been noted across far eastern NM along the OK and TX borders today and this will persist through the day, especially across northeast NM behind a weak backdoor cold front. Additionally, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across far eastern NM through the evening before shifting northeastward into TX, similarly to what has occurred through the morning hours. A few other showers and thunderstorms will persist across north central NM as well ahead of the upper level low. Southwesterly winds will continue to increase this afternoon across central and western areas, becoming more westerly toward evening. Gusts between 25 and 35kt will be common. Winds will become more northwesterly tonight, but will decrease in speed. The backdoor cold front across NE NM will be reinforced Thursday. Winds will strengthen and it will quickly slide southward across the plains. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 152 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Main fire weather concerns are strong winds through early Friday followed by poor ventilation over the weekend into early next week. Breezy to windy southwest to west winds will persist through the rest of the afternoon. Winds will turn northwesterly and weaken this evening and overnight. On Thursday, a strong backdoor cold front will slide down the eastern plains before pushing westward through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain Thursday evening. Northerly wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph are expected across eastern NM, while easterly gusts between 50 and 65 mph are expected below gaps in the Rio Grande Valley. Winds will slowly decrease through Friday morning, but will remain breezy through Friday aftn. Temperatures will be below normal areawide on Friday. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible across western NM this weekend into Monday, otherwise temperatures will gradually climb back to normal through the period. Considerable uncertainty exists Tuesday and beyond. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 36 62 36 64 / 5 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 28 61 27 64 / 5 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 31 60 33 58 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 30 59 32 62 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 28 59 33 57 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 31 60 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 32 63 35 57 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 38 61 36 55 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 33 60 33 53 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 34 69 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 39 74 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 28 53 28 57 / 20 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 37 58 36 57 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 36 62 32 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 31 57 29 58 / 5 0 0 0 Red River....................... 24 48 22 50 / 10 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 21 54 17 52 / 5 0 0 0 Taos............................ 30 60 27 60 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 32 57 28 55 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 36 66 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 38 62 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 37 65 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 42 68 42 63 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 43 69 43 63 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 40 70 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 43 69 41 63 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 42 70 43 66 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 40 69 41 65 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 40 70 41 66 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 41 70 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 42 70 43 66 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 41 67 40 62 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 42 68 42 65 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 45 71 42 66 / 0 0 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 36 62 36 56 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 38 65 38 58 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 36 64 35 57 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 34 66 32 59 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 36 60 29 53 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 36 63 34 55 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 37 64 34 53 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 45 69 41 57 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 41 63 34 50 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 36 53 28 51 / 20 0 0 0 Raton........................... 34 57 31 54 / 20 0 0 0 Springer........................ 35 61 30 58 / 5 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 33 59 29 55 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 42 59 34 54 / 40 0 0 0 Roy............................. 40 61 34 56 / 5 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 46 70 42 62 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 46 68 40 58 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 46 71 41 60 / 5 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 49 69 38 58 / 10 0 0 0 Portales........................ 48 70 39 59 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 50 71 42 60 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 50 76 44 62 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 46 72 40 57 / 0 0 5 0 Elk............................. 44 70 38 54 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from noon Thursday to midnight MDT Thursday night for NMZ227-228-230-231. Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for NMZ222-223-228>230. High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for NMZ219-220-224-225. Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM MDT Thursday for NMZ216. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...34  680 FXUS66 KLOX 142103 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 203 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...14/237 AM. A Santa Ana wind pattern will create much warmer temperatures this week as well as gusty northeast winds at times, strongest Thursday and Friday. Another significant cool down is likely into next week. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...14/133 PM. The first Santa Ana event for the season is going to be a strong one. Forecast models and ensemble gradients are all pointing to a strong event with with 50kt northeast winds at 850mb and surface gradients around 8-9mb to the east. There have been some gusty north to northeast winds to 30-40mph this morning in the San Gabriel Mountains and across the western San Fernando Valley. But the primary days will be Thursday through Saturday, with Friday being the strongest. During that peak period wind gusts across the LA/Ventura mountains are expected to reach as high as 70 mph while the LA/Ventura Valleys and Ventura coastal areas peak at around 55 mph. Typical Santa Anas do not include the LA Metro area, Antelope Valley, or Central Coast but some of the latest model forecasts indicate at least some 15-30 mph gusts in those areas. Temperatures have started to warm up today and that trend will continue through Friday. Due to the strong subsidence associated with this event and relatively warmer air aloft this will be a very hot Santa Ana, with coastal areas being the warmest. Model forecasts for today had a 3-6 degree cold bias so there's a good chance that there will a similar bias the next couple days. With that in mind high temperatures have been increased by at least a few degrees Thursday and Friday. Most coastal areas, including SLO and Santa Barbara Counties will be in the 90s by Friday and heat advisories are in effect. Valleys will be a little cooler but still in the mid 80s to mid 90s. And there is a 5-10 percent chance of some 100 degree highs as well. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...14/201 PM. A rapid cooling trend is expected to begin Sunday for coastal areas as a low pressure system moving into the Pac NW initiates strong return to onshore flow. Coastal areas will drop 10-15 degrees from Saturday and could see a return of low clouds and fog as early as Monday. Valleys and other interior areas will maintain their respective temperatures through around Monday before the cooling finally arrives with the next storm system on Tuesday. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with the track of that system. Models initially had it moving much farther inland but later solutions have trended more to the west. Roughly 20-30% of the current solutions show some light rain chances as early as late Tuesday, but there are just as many solutions holding off until as late Thursday due to the storm tracking even farther off the coast. Either way, there is high confidence in a much cooler pattern by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...14/1640Z. At 1609Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion. High confidence in CAVU TAFs. KLAX...High confidence in CAVU TAF. Any east wind component will be AOB 7 kts 10Z-16Z. KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF. && .MARINE...14/111 PM. Santa Ana Winds will affect our inner waters south of Point Conception Thursday through Saturday morning. Strongest during the late night into early afternoon hours. These hazardous NE-E winds will be focused from Ventura to Santa Monica and out past Anacapa Island. These winds could become hazardous across the San Pedro Channel Friday morning with a 25% chc of 25 kt gusts at Avalon Harbor. The worst conditions are expected Friday morning with the most concern nearshore from Ventura-Malibu. Gale Watches have been issued to target these waters. Refer to MWWLOX for more details. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) may be needed for the nearshore waters along the Central Coast Friday morning due to gusty offshore winds. There is a solid signal for a trough early to mid next week which could bring hazardous boating conditions along with rain chances to our coastal waters. Will monitor this system. Long period swells from the west and the south are affecting the coastal waters, and can create a confused sea state. This can make boating more challenging and dangerous, especially for small vessels. && .FIRE WEATHER...14/909 AM. Offshore flow will steadily increase each day through Thursday or Friday, then weaken over the weekend. During the Thursday and Friday peak, northeast winds of 20 to 40 mph with gusts to 40 to 60 mph will be common over the wind prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, with localized gusts of 60 to 70 mph in the mountains. Winds will be unusually widespread on Friday, when much of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo will experience a few hours windy conditions, especially the interior mountains where winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected. Meanwhile, the air will rapidly warm and dry. High temperatures between 85 and 95 will be common by Friday, warmest near the coast where the risk for heat illness is high. Minimum humidities will generally lower into the 5 to 15 percent range by Friday, with poor overnight recoveries starting Thursday. All of this will add up to a high risk for large fires and rapid fire growth over most of the area, especially over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties as well as interior San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties where Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches are in place. While some areas received rain earlier this week, the dry day today will largely remove any benefiting effects on the fuels. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 6 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-370>374-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 340-341-346-347-349-350-354-355-362-366>368. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Thursday afternoon for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect from 6 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 369-375-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect from 6 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 288-354-355-358-362-369>382-548. (See LAXRFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect from 3 AM to 6 PM PDT Friday for zones 345-353. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Thursday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from late Thursday night through Friday afternoon for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...Black MARINE...Black FIRE...RK SYNOPSIS...RM weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  995 FXPQ50 PGUM 142108 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 708 AM ChST Thu Oct 15 2026 .Update... With the first warning going out on Tropical Depression 29W, went ahead and ran cyclone grids. This raised the wind speeds and the PoP's. Those are the main changes this morning, but stay on the watch for a Special Weather Statement later this morning, and possibly tropical cyclone watches in the afternoon. && .Hydrology Update... The models are predicting about 5 inches of rain near the center, so we're looking at more like 6 to 12 inches likely near the center of Tropical Depression 29W. Therefore, contacted the National Water Center and asked them to add us as a Limited area on the Flood Hazard Outlook. Once we can narrow down where 29W is going, we might ask for at least part of the Marianas to be upgraded from Limited to Considerable. && .Tropical Systems Update... Tropical Depression (TD) 28W is currently located south of Iwo To near 22.7N 141.1E, and it is moving northwest at 14 mph. 28W is expected to turn toward the west with a decrease in forward speed through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are around 35 mph, and it is expected to weaken tonight. Satellite reveals a weak low- level circulation center with isolated thunderstorms along the northern and southeast flanks, with little convective activity elsewhere. 28W is expected to continue to weaken through the end of the week as it opens into a surface wave, probably Friday night or Saturday, somewhere west of Iwo To. For more information please refer to bulletins from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW and from the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM. Invest 96W has strengthened, and is now known as Tropical Depression 29W. 29W is located to the north-northeast of Pohnpei, near 10.6N 160.1E. Himawari infra-red satellite imagery this morning shows a somewhat sheared system, with numerous to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms located along its southwestern through northwestern flanks, focused over and north of Pohnpei. The low- level circulation center and eastern flank are partially exposed, with patchy showers seen across the area including the northern Marshall Islands. Deterministic and ensemble model guidance continue to show a Marianas passage sometime between late Saturday evening and Sunday night. Although most tracks take the developing cyclone directly through the southern Marianas, individual model tracks range from passing to the south of Guam, to far north of Saipan, potentially as a well-developed typhoon (sustained winds 74+ mph). Uncertainty remains high in the eventual track and intensity of Invest 96W. Residents of the Marianas are urged to begin making preparations, stay informed, and monitor for updates from the National Weather Service in Tiyan, Guam, as well as local emergency management. For more information on Invest 96W, see bulletins issued by JTWC under WMO header ABPW10 PGTW. && .Eastern Micronesia Update... A few changes were needed to the forecast package, starting out with Invest 96W being elevated to Tropical Depression 29W. Due this this feature building in strength, the Special Weather Statement (SPS) and Small Craft Advisory (for Kosrae) were extended through the afternoon package. Over night ASCAT shows winds near Kosrae around 25 knots. Winds this evening at Kosrae are expected to diminish below Small Craft Advisory thresholds. Numerous locally heavy showers remain in the forecast for Pohnpei, and scattered showers for Majuro. Seas are expected to remain 6 to 8 feet in the west and tapering down to 6 feet in the easts. Winds near Pohnpei and Kosrae are expected to be moderate to strong with gusts to near gale while 29W remains near by. Winds near Majuro are expected to be gentle to moderate. && .Western Micronesia Update... No changes were needed at Yap or Palau, where the weather forecast is kind of steady state right now. The changes at Chuuk were minor, mainly to reword the headline from ending tonight to ending Sunday. Especially Saturday and Sunday will likely need a Small Craft Advisory. This will be due to Tropical Depression 20W and the enhanced monsoon winds flowing into it. && .Prev discussion... /issued 744 PM ChST Wed Oct 14 2026/ Marianas Synopsis... Visible satellite and Doppler radar reveal partly cloudy skies and isolated showers across the region. Altimetry indicates combined seas of 3 to 4 feet. Discussion... A surface trough extending between Invest 96W to the east-southeast and Tropical Depression 28W to the north-northwest will encroach upon Saipan and Tinian tonight and linger through Thursday, bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The zones were split due to short-term differences in shower coverage as drier air will remain over Guam and Rota. Island-effect showers may be possible for these islands, but easterly winds are expected to advect these showers over western coastal waters, similar to the pattern that occurred today. Afterwards, isolated showers will return for the entire region through Friday night. Then, weather conditions may begin to deteriorate Saturday as Invest 96W potentially tracks through the Marianas as a tropical storm or typhoon. Widespread locally heavy showers, near-gale winds, and thunderstorms are forecast from Saturday night through Sunday night, with a peak of the worst conditions around Sunday. Shortly afterwards, shower coverage looks to decrease to isolated with light and variable winds possibly returning after Monday night. Residents of the Marianas should continue storm preparations and stay up to date with the forecasts in the coming days. Marine... Altimetry data indicates combined seas of 3 to 4 feet. Seas are expected to increase a foot or two through Friday. Then, seas will significantly increase sometime Friday night ahead of Invest 96W, with conditions hazardous to small craft possible through Monday. Light east winds will become light to moderate northeasterlies by late Thursday, before rapidly increasing through the weekend. There is a moderate risk of rip currents along north and east facing reefs at least through Thursday night with dangerous surf conditions probable this weekend. Those with marine interests should monitor the forecasts in the coming days. Hydrology... Invest 96W continues to develop north of Pohnpei and Kosrae. Ensemble model guidance continues to show a passage anywhere between Guam to north of Saipan as a tropical storm or typhoon. Uncertainty is still high regarding timing, location, and intensity, but the potential for locally heavy rainfall and flooding continues to increase approaching this weekend. This is expected to produce 5 to 8 inches of rainfall between Saturday and Monday, with localized amounts up to 12 inches possible. As showers are likely to persist, consistent rainfall is likely to saturate the soils enough to increase chance for mudslides. Residents on these islands need to closely monitor this developing situation as flood watches, advisories, and flash flood warnings could be issued later this weekend. Tropical Systems... Tropical Depression (TD) 28W is currently located south of Iwo To near 21.0N 143.1E, and it is moving northwest at 13 mph. 28W is expected to maintain this general course with a slight decrease in forward speed through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are around 30 mph, and it is expected to maintain this intensity through tonight, remaining a tropical depression as it weakens slightly through Thursday. Satellite reveals a weak low-level circulation center with isolated thunderstorms along the northern and southeast flanks, with little convective activity elsewhere. 28W is expected to continue to weaken through the end of the week as it opens into a surface wave, somewhere west of Iwo To. For more information please refer to bulletins from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW and from the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM. A developing tropical disturbance, Invest 96W, is located to the northeast of Pohnpei, near 9.0N 160.4E. As of 5 AM ChST this morning, Invest 96W remains the subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) by the JTWC, which means it is expected to develop into a significant tropical cyclone (a tropical depression) within 24 hours. Himawari visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows a very broad, elongated disturbance stretching along roughly 10N, with numerous to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms located along its western and southwestern flanks, focused over and south of Pohnpei. The low-level circulation center and eastern flank are mostly exposed, with patchy showers seen across the area including the northern Marshall Islands. Lines of thunderstorms are seen along a convergence boundary within 96W's southwest flank, which extend east-southeast from around Chuuk Lagoon to Kosrae. Deterministic and ensemble model guidance continue to show the development of a broad tropical cyclone over the next few days with most tracks depicting a Marianas passage sometime between late Saturday evening and Sunday night. Although most tracks take the developing cyclone directly through the southern Marianas, individual model tracks range from passing to the south of Guam, to far north of Saipan, potentially as a well-developed typhoon (sustained winds 74+ mph). Uncertainty remains high in the eventual track and intensity of Invest 96W. Residents of the Marianas are urged to begin making preparations, stay informed, and monitor for updates from the National Weather Service in Tiyan, Guam, as well as local emergency management. For more information on Invest 96W, see bulletins issued by JTWC under WMO header ABPW10 PGTW. Eastern Micronesia... Invest 96W, currently centered northeast of Pohnpei near 9.0N 160.4E, continues to dominate the weather pattern across the region. Bands of scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen within the strong convergence south of 96W's elongated center, stretching eastward from south of Pohnpei to Kosrae, then extending east-northeast to around Majuro Atoll. As Invest 96W shifts west- northwest to pass Pohnpei to the north, winds and showers are expected to increase tonight through Thursday night, with gusty fresh to strong westerlies expected to develop over the island and adjacent coastal waters, with locally heavy rainfall possible at times. Meanwhile, conditions should gradually ease over Kosrae tonight into Thursday as 96W shifts away. A Small Craft Advisory was issued for Pohnpei, in effect from this evening through early Friday morning, as sustained strong winds over the coastal waters will produce choppy sea conditions hazardous to small craft. The Small Craft Advisory for Kosrae expires late tonight as sustained winds diminish below hazardous levels. Combined seas of 6 to 9 feet are expected, with the highest seas expected over the northern waters of Kosrae and Pohnpei. A Special Weather Statement was reissued for Kosrae and Pohnpei to highlight the unsettled weather associated with Invest 96W, but Kosrae may be dropped from the next issuance as conditions are expected to improve there overnight. Western Micronesia... The convergence zone within the southern peripheries of the monsoon axis continues to produce patchy showers and some thunderstorms across much of western Micronesia south of 10N, bringing said weather conditions to Palau and Yap the next few days. After, conditions are expected to steadily improve as the convergence zone weakens under the expansion of the monsoon trough, mainly under the influence of developing Invest 96W that will move across the Marianas during the weekend. Chuuk is well within an enhanced monsoon surge building along the southwestern fringes of Invest 96W, which is likely to deepen over the coming days, bringing numerous heavy showers and some thunderstorms tonight through Thursday night. As 96W moves away from the area, winds will continue to increase across Chuuk during the weekend, potentially reaching near gale-force by Saturday. Combined seas of 3 to 5 feet across Palau and Yap waters are expected to drop a foot or two over the next few days, to begin increasing this weekend as distant swells from 96W arrive to the region. Combined seas of 4 to 5 feet near Chuuk are expected to increase for much of the week, potentially reaching levels hazardous to small craft over the weekend. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...None. MP...None. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ East Micronesia: Bowsher Marianas and West Micronesia/Tropical Update: Stanko Marianas: Mesa East Micronesia/Tropical: DeCou West Micronesia: Montvila  671 FXUS66 KLOX 142117 AAA AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 217 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...14/237 AM. A Santa Ana wind pattern will create much warmer temperatures this week as well as gusty northeast winds at times, strongest Thursday and Friday. Another significant cool down is likely into next week. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...14/217 PM. The first Santa Ana event for the season is going to be a strong one. Forecast models and ensemble gradients are all pointing to a strong event with with 50kt northeast winds at 850mb and surface gradients around 8-9mb from the east. There have been some gusty north to northeast winds to 30-40mph this morning in the San Gabriel Mountains and across the western San Fernando Valley. But the primary days will be Thursday through Saturday, with Friday being the strongest. During that peak period wind gusts across the LA/Ventura mountains are expected to reach as high as 70 mph while the LA/Ventura Valleys and Ventura coastal areas peak at around 55 mph. Typical Santa Anas do not include the LA Metro area, Antelope Valley, or Central Coast but some of the latest model forecasts indicate at least some 15-30 mph gusts in those areas. Temperatures have started to warm up today and that trend will continue through Friday. Due to the strong subsidence associated with this event and relatively warmer air aloft this will be a very hot Santa Ana, with coastal areas being the warmest. Model forecasts for today had a 3-6 degree cold bias so there's a good chance that there will a similar bias the next couple days. With that in mind high temperatures have been increased by at least a few degrees Thursday and Friday. Most coastal areas, including SLO and Santa Barbara Counties will be in the 90s by Friday and heat advisories are in effect. Valleys will be a little cooler but still in the mid 80s to mid 90s. And there is a 5-10 percent chance of some 100 degree highs as well. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...14/201 PM. A rapid cooling trend is expected to begin Sunday for coastal areas as a low pressure system moving into the Pac NW initiates strong return to onshore flow. Coastal areas will drop 10-15 degrees from Saturday and could see a return of low clouds and fog as early as Monday. Valleys and other interior areas will maintain their respective temperatures through around Monday before the cooling finally arrives with the next storm system on Tuesday. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with the track of that system. Models initially had it moving much farther inland but later solutions have trended more to the west. Roughly 20-30% of the current solutions show some light rain chances as early as late Tuesday, but there are just as many solutions holding off until as late Thursday due to the storm tracking even farther off the coast. Either way, there is high confidence in a much cooler pattern by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...14/1640Z. At 1609Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion. High confidence in CAVU TAFs. KLAX...High confidence in CAVU TAF. Any east wind component will be AOB 7 kts 10Z-16Z. KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF. && .MARINE...14/216 PM. Santa Ana Winds will affect our inner waters south of Point Conception Thursday through Saturday morning. Strongest during the late night into early afternoon hours. These hazardous NE-E winds will be focused from Ventura to Santa Monica and out past Anacapa Island. These winds could become hazardous across the San Pedro Channel Friday morning with a 25% chc of 25 kt gusts at Avalon Harbor. The worst conditions are expected Friday morning with the most concern nearshore from Ventura-Malibu. Gale Watches have been issued to target these waters. Refer to MWWLOX for more details. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) may be needed for the nearshore waters along the Central Coast Friday morning due to gusty offshore winds. There is a solid signal for a trough early to mid next week which could bring hazardous boating conditions along with rain chances to our coastal waters. Will monitor this system. Long period swells from the west and the south are affecting the coastal waters, and can create a confused sea state. This can make boating more challenging and dangerous, especially for small vessels. && .FIRE WEATHER...14/909 AM. Offshore flow will steadily increase each day through Thursday or Friday, then weaken over the weekend. During the Thursday and Friday peak, northeast winds of 20 to 40 mph with gusts to 40 to 60 mph will be common over the wind prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, with localized gusts of 60 to 70 mph in the mountains. Winds will be unusually widespread on Friday, when much of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo will experience a few hours windy conditions, especially the interior mountains where winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected. Meanwhile, the air will rapidly warm and dry. High temperatures between 85 and 95 will be common by Friday, warmest near the coast where the risk for heat illness is high. Minimum humidities will generally lower into the 5 to 15 percent range by Friday, with poor overnight recoveries starting Thursday. All of this will add up to a high risk for large fires and rapid fire growth over most of the area, especially over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties as well as interior San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties where Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches are in place. While some areas received rain earlier this week, the dry day today will largely remove any benefiting effects on the fuels. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 6 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-370>374-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 340-341-346-347-349-350-354-355-362-366>368. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Thursday afternoon for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect from 6 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 369-375-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect from 6 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 288-354-355-358-362-369>382-548. (See LAXRFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect from 3 AM to 6 PM PDT Friday for zones 345-353. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Thursday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from late Thursday night through Friday afternoon for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...Black MARINE...Black FIRE...RK SYNOPSIS...RM weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  555 FXUS65 KTWC 142132 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 232 PM MST Wed Oct 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will remain below normal through this weekend. A strong surface high pressure area will move into Southeast Arizona from the east Thursday night resulting in strong east to southeast winds late Thursday night into this weekend. These winds are expected to be especially strong, and may be impactful to those with outdoor plans this Friday and Saturday. Also expect a 20-50 percent chance of rain Friday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION...It'a beautiful day across the CWA with temperatures 10-12 degrees below normal and sunny to partly cloudy skies. Aloft, a closed low is moving through the Four Corners region and an east-west oriented ridge is building into the upper Great Basin and Pacific Northwest. The closed low will be absorbed by a trough moving in from Canada by Friday and the ridge will build into western Wyoming and Colorado pinching off a closed low that will sit over southern California and northern Baja. At the same time a very strong surface high forms just east of the Rockies centered over Wyoming and gradually moves south Friday into Saturday. This surface high will be very strong with NAEFS mean MSLP 3 standard deviations above average. This will create a very strong pressure gradient over southeast Arizona leading to a long-duration easterly wind event Thursday night into Saturday. NAEFS mean 850 mb wind speeds are 40-50 kts late Thursday night into Friday night, which is 4-6 standard deviations above normal. Expect surface winds starting around 16/06Z through Saturday afternoon to be 30-45 mph with gusts 50-70 mph. Models show the strongest winds in the lee of Sky Islands, likely enhanced by mountain waves and downsloping. Thanks to the position of the closed low over Baja 700-500 mb winds will be out of the southeast, so momentum transfer down to the surface will have a similar direction to the surface, which is not typical for east wind events. Also, to drive home how anomalous this is the Euro EFI is at 0.95-1.0 for most of southeast Arizona Friday. REFS wind gust probabilities for 60 mph or greater Friday are 30-90 percent for a good portion of southeast Arizona with the highest probabilities in the lee of the mountains and east-west oriented valleys. Based on model guidance and growing confidence in how anomalous this event will be the Wind Advisory has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning from 11 PM Thursday through 11 PM Friday from central Pima County eastward. A Wind Advisory will then be in effect from 11 PM Friday through Saturday afternoon. The Tohono O'odham Nation has also been added to the Wind Advisory starting early Friday morning. In the High Wind Warning area expect sustained speeds 35-45 mph with gusts 55-70 mph. Best timing for the strongest winds looks to be Friday morning and early afternoon. These winds could lead to downed trees and power poles as well as blowing dust. High profile vehicles should also use caution when driving in cross winds. In the tropics Hurricane Simon is 250 miles south southeast of Cabo and will weaken and move northwestward over southern Baja this weekend into early next week. This will send moisture into southern Arizona leading to a chance for showers and thunderstorms Friday into Saturday. Initially best chances will be west of Tucson then cover most of southeast Arizona Saturday. Sunday will likely see a brief break in rain chances, but the upper air pattern stays fairly progressive. By Sunday the closed low over Baja opens up and flattens out as a Pacific low approaches the Northwest and then moves down the west coast early to mid next week. This will lead to continued below normal temperatures and 20-40 PoPs. && .AVIATION...Valid through 16/00Z. FEW-SCT clouds 3-6k ft AGL south and east of Tucson this afternoon and evening then SKC thereafter. SFC winds will be WLY/NWLY 5-10 kts this afternoon and early evening then less than 8 kts and terrain driven overnight. Thursday morning through the end of the TAF period winds will be SELY 5-10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Temperatures will remain below normal through this weekend. A strong surface high pressure area will move into Southeast Arizona from the east Thursday night resulting in strong east to southeast winds late Thursday night into Saturday. This wind event has the potential to produce very strong easterly winds. Locations on the lee-side of the higher terrain, terrain gaps, and east-to-west oriented valleys will also be susceptible to the strongest winds Friday morning. For these areas expect speeds 35-45 mph with gusts 55-70 mph Friday morning into the evening, then 25-35 mph with gusts 50-60 mph Friday night into Saturday. Minimum relative humidity remains above 25-40 percent through the weekend. There will also be 20-50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning from 11 PM Thursday to 11 PM MST Friday for AZZ503>509-511>514. Wind Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 2 PM MST Saturday for AZZ502- 515. Wind Advisory from 11 PM Friday to 2 PM MST Saturday for AZZ503>509-511>514. && $$ Hardin Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson  882 FXUS66 KPDT 142136 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 236 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above average temperatures across the region on Friday with breezy conditions in the Blue Mountains and Grande Ronde Valley - Breezy conditions in the Columbia River Gorge and Kittitas Valley on Saturday - Chances for rain early next week. && .DISCUSSION... The weather today has been generally quiet with the only note being a band of light rain that has been moving through western portions of the CWA. That band of light rain has largely dissipated and visible satellite imagery shows clear to mostly clear skies moving into the region from the north. Mid-level water vapor imagery and upper air soundings show that an upper level ridge has started building into the region. Latest model guidance shows that ridging will be in place through Friday before a shortwave trough comes through the region. As a result, temperatures will increase throughout the week, with the hottest day being on Friday where temperatures will likely be in the mid 70s to low 80s for lower elevations and in the low 60s to low 70s in higher elevations, which is around 10-20 degrees above normal (90% confidence). Of additional note, models are still indicating that breezy conditions will likely set up in the Blue Mountains and the Grande Ronde Valley Friday morning (Confidence 80%). This is a result of a somewhat large pressure gradient setting up in the Blue Mountains. The Surface Pressure Gradient Tool developed by the SPC shows that the NAM and SREF have a pressure gradient of 4-7 mb between Baker City and Meacham. The mean wind gusts off the REFS shows wind gusts up to 45-50 mph in the Blue Mountains and 35-40 mph in the Grande Ronde valley on Friday morning. After Friday, model guidance shows that two systems will come through the region. The first is a shortwave trough that will move through the Northwest during the day Saturday into Sunday morning. Currently, rain associated with the system looks confined to the higher terrain in the Cascades. In addition, as the system comes through, the winds on Saturday should shift to being from the southwest. As a result, breezier conditions will likely (80% confidence) develop on Saturday mainly in areas with channeling effects (i.e. Columbia River Gorge and Kittitas Valley). Current NBM guidance suggests that the winds will remain below wind advisory criteria (wind gusts >45mph) with a probability of meeting advisory criteria of <10%. The second trough has more uncertainty with it but models bring it through early next week. This trough looks to be the next best chance of rain. The latest NBM suggests a 50% chance of receiving measurable rain (>0.01 in) in the Blue Mountains and a 0-25% chance in the lower elevations during the day on Tuesday. With that being said, this chance for rain has dropped substantially compared to a run of the NBM 24 hours ago, which had probs of 75% and 25-50% chance of measurable rain for the higher and lower elevations respectively. This change is due to a large shift in many of the models which causes the trough to dig farther south and form a cutoff over California. However, this system still has a large amount of uncertainty associated with it as illustrated by the LREF clusters. LREF cluster EOF's show that timing is the leading source of uncertainty within the ensemble but there is still some uncertainty regarding the amplitude of the trough. Should the deeper trough trend continue, most areas would see little to no rain, while if the models trend back north, there will be a larger chance for rain. Garty/26 && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... VFR conditions to persist throughout the TAF period for all sites. Cloudy conditions present until the evening with skies clearing by 24z for TAF sites. Calm to light winds present within the region. .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 64 36 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 65 41 69 41 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 67 34 71 36 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 65 39 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 66 36 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 62 35 67 37 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 66 27 69 30 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 63 31 68 34 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 64 33 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 70 41 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 38 68 38 74 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 40 69 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 37 72 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 43 70 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 39 69 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 40 66 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 31 74 33 80 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 36 69 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 36 75 39 76 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 46 74 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...26/71 AVIATION...07/95  987 FXUS66 KMFR 142138 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 238 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warming trend continues Thursday and Friday. * A dry cold front will move through Saturday with most cooling felt in Oregon. * Dry, mild weather is expected Sunday. * Stronger front approaches coast Sunday night into Monday, but rain chances keep lowering since most precipitation is now associated with low pressure farther offshore. && .DISCUSSION...Another warm period is upon us. High pressure will move in aloft tonight into Thursday and this will bring above normal warmth through Friday. Even some warm readings will be felt all the way to the coast on Thursday due to low-level offshore flow. Overall, temps will be about 10-15F above normal both Thursday and Friday, with up to 20F above normal for inland areas N&W of the Cascades/Siskiyous. Locally breezy conditions will be felt on the upper slopes/ridges if you find yourself out for a mountain hike, but also perhaps in the Ashland area since winds aloft there are aligned from the ESE tonight through Friday morning. More marine influence is expected along the coast Friday, so it should cool a bit there compared to Thursday. A dry cold front will move through Saturday, so it'll be cooler for most areas with more clouds across NW sections due to a deeper marine push. Temperatures should drop back closer to normal west of the Cascades, but remain about 10F above normal south and east of the mountains. Would expect potential for breezes during the afternoon, but models aren't really showing much wind at this time. Aside from some morning clouds west of the Cascades and along the coast, Sunday should be dry and mild. The next frontal system will approach the coast Sunday night. Older model runs had been showing a fairly healthy front swinging through the PacNW Monday with a good chance for rain. But, recent developments are showing split flow (harbinger of this winter?) with most of the precipitation occurring beneath the developing low pressure offshore. As the front approaches it stalls, and the low dives southward far enough offshore to keep much of the precip out over the ocean. Rain chances are still running in the 20-40% range for Monday. Coastal areas stand the best shot at some precip, but probably not the rain needed after such a dry start to October. After that, models are showing that low headed into southern California. It's conceivable that some of that moisture could eventually come farther north into our area later in the week. But, uncertainty is high and other plausible scenarios indicate much of that could easily escape and miss to our south and east. -Spilde && .AVIATION...14/18Z TAFs...VFR will prevail through the TAF period for all terminals. East to southeast winds increase over the mountains, especially the Cascades/Siskiyous, late tonight and during Thursday morning. These winds, just a couple of thousand feet AGL, will be approximately 25-30 kt from the ESE. This will bring an enhanced risk of low level wind shear at Medford Airport around and after 12Z, lasting until about 17Z due to a strong inversion, which should prevent those winds from reaching the surface. It could get breezy in Ashland, however. -Spilde && .MARINE...Updated 1230 PM PDT Wednesday, October 14, 2026...Gusty north winds and steep wind-driven seas south of Cape Blanco will diminish through tonight. Improved conditions are expected Thursday into Friday. Another round of north winds is possible this weekend, then south winds and rain are possible early next week with the arrival of low pressure offshore. && .FIRE WEATHER...An unseasonably warm air mass moves in over SW Oregon and NorCal late this week (Thu/Fri).This will bring elevated fire weather risk, especially over the higher terrain. Offshore winds (E-SE) strengthen tonight into Thursday morning, peaking over the upper slopes and ridges, especially the Cascades, west side foothills and Siskiyou mtns with peak gusts of 25-35 mph. Expect worsening mid slope/ridge RH recoveries during the overnights (worst Thursday night from the Cascades west, and then Friday night from the Cascades east). Winds should subside a bit by Friday night, but still could be gusty Thursday night/Friday morning. A very dry day is expected Friday with afternoon minimum RH in the teens in many areas, perhaps even some single digit readings in portions of NorCal and over the East Side. Right now, these conditions do not meet Red Flag warning criteria, due to either moderate fire danger, or not long enough duration of combined critical wind/rh levels. Even so, conditions will be elevated to near critical (especially in the Umpqua NF/southern Oregon Cascades and perhaps Modoc at times). As a result, we opted to headline the Fire Weather Planning Forecast. On Saturday, a dry cold front will swing through and humidity will increase for all but the far S&E sections of the area. Winds don't appear to be too strong with this front, so fire concerns lessen. Humidity recoveries will be much better area wide Saturday night. -Spilde && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376. && $$ MAS  734 FXUS65 KCYS 142154 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 354 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of rain and high elevation snow is expected late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. - Accumulating snow is expected above 7000 ft this evening through Thursday morning. Snow levels may lower down to 5500 to 6000 feet briefly before precipitation ends later Thursday morning. - A growing-season-ending freeze is expected Thursday night into Friday morning across the entire area. - Drier and milder weather expected this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 400 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Most of our area is in the midst of another lull in the action as the slow moving, powerful upper level low rotates to our south. Dry air in the middle to upper atmosphere is apparent on GOES water vapor imagery moving over most of the area as a dry slot on the eastern flank of the storm system. This is not obvious looking up from the surface though, as persistent easterly upslope flow is keeping low clouds firmly locked in place everywhere along and east of the Laramie range. Low clouds are clearly apparent on GOES visible satellite imagery with the mid to upper level cloud cover gone. Precipitation rates have gone down to near zero without the moisture aloft, but portions of the area are still observing mist. The cloud cover is holding temperatures down for the entire area. Only around Chadron are temperatures exceeding 50 degrees, while everywhere else remains stuck in the 40s. A dynamic period of weather is anticipated over the next 18 hours as the last phase of this storm system gets underway. The center of the upper level low is currently located near the Four Corners, but the primary band of precipitation is developing across central Wyoming. This feature is forced by positive theta-e advection and isentropic lift, which should eventually transition into the TROWAL. Model guidance is finally converging on a solution with this system, but there have been a few recent changes in the overall evolution. While this has removed several of the outlier models from previous runs and increased confidence, the official forecast has not changed significantly. The latest RAP guidance shows the upper level low struggling to fully separate from the northern branch trough this evening. This is expected to limit isentropic lift on the entire northeast flank of the system, which reduces the window for precipitation to just the narrow TROWAL on the back edge. Shower activity is still expected to increase this evening, but QPF expectations are more modest until the primary band of precipitation develops and moves through the area from northwest to southeast Thursday morning. While precipitation rates are still expected to be healthy underneath this band, it will be narrow and moving fairly rapidly, reducing overall QPF compared to some of the more aggressive model solutions yesterday. Current expectations are for 0.5 to 0.75" liquid precipitation in the core of the band from around Arlington towards Torrington and possibly Alliance. 0.25 to 0.5" of QPF are now the most likely scenario along the Douglas to Chadron corridor and along I-80 east of Cheyenne, though localized embedded convective cores will likely lead to locally higher amounts in a few areas. Precipitation will come to an abrupt end Thursday morning, around daybreak along a Rawlins to Chadron line, and then closer to noon around Sidney as a very dry airmass pushes in behind the northern branch shortwave sweeping through. The cold air expectations for this system remain on track with previous forecasts. Snow levels will plummet overnight tonight as the coldest air moves in between about 3AM and 9AM. This is still expected to align with the timing of the heaviest precipitation rates moving across the area. Confidence remains high in accumulating snow about 7000 ft in elevation, including the city of Laramie. The Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to include the Laramie Valley with between 2 and 4 inches of snow as the most likely scenario at this time. While this is somewhat on the low end for an advisory, it will be the first event of the season and likely come with a brief window of heavy snowfall rates aligned with the Thursday morning commute. The remaining Winter Weather Advisories remain on track. Between 6000 ft and 7000 ft, snow is expected to mix in with rain in the narrow coldest window Thursday morning. Between a dusting and an inch of snow can be expected in this elevation window, which includes Cheyenne. Temperatures will be highly marginal, and may not quite reach freezing even if areas receive some snow. Expect a cold and blustery day across the area Thursday. While skies will clear, expect gusty north to northwest winds up to around 30 to 40 mph over much of the area with highs stuck in the 40s to low 50s. This will set up Thursday night for the coldest temperatures of the season. Recent model guidance has trended slower in the end of the gusty winds, meaning we may still be quite breezy into the overnight hours, especially early. This has moderated temperature expectations slightly, but the airmass should still be sufficiently cold to produce a widespread freeze, even if a shallow surface inversion never manages to develop. A Freeze Watch has been issued for the entire area excluding the mountains from midnight until 9AM Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 400 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 After coming off a hard freeze Thursday night, temperatures will gradually warm up Friday after melting off frost and potentially snow for some areas. As the Pacific storm exists towards the Great Lakes region, upper-level ridging will begin to build in behind it. The ridge will rapidly usher in warm air aloft, with 700 mb temperatures rising into the upper single digits. Despite the warm temperatures aloft, surface temperatures will take longer to rebound. Highs on Friday will be about 10 degrees below average, with temperatures generally in the 50s across the forecast area. Areas with snow cover could be cooler, namely the Laramie Valley, with highs in the 40s. Even though temperatures will be on the seasonably cool side, ample sunshine throughout the day will help cut through some of the chill. As the upper-level ridge shifts eastward overnight on Friday, mid- level winds will become more westerly. The westerly winds will pose a possible concern for high winds in the typical southeast Wyoming wind prones of Arlington and Bordeaux during the day Saturday. MSLP gradients will steepen along and west of the Laramie Range. CAG to CPR 850 mb gradients also reach the 50 meter range, signaling the potential for gradient driven marginal high winds in the wind prones. 700 mb winds will reach about 40 kts, but subsidence is rather weak and will likely not play a huge role in the winds Saturday into Sunday morning. Wind gusts of at least 40 to 50 MPH will be likely during the day Saturday and into the overnight hours. Westerly winds will help play a role in the warm, above average temperatures on Saturday. Downsloping winds will aid 90th percentile 700 mb temperatures in achieving daytime highs in the 70s for areas east of the Laramie Range. To the west, highs around 60 degrees can be expected. Ample sunshine is once again expected for Saturday. Above average temperatures will continue into the start of next week with highs in the 60s and 70s expected Sunday through Tuesday. Conditions during thistime are also expected to remain dry, with mostly sunny skies expected each day. Cannot rule out a low-end chance of precipitation during the evening on Tuesday as a shortwave glances the CWA, however, models seem to have trended this drier. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1145 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 A storm system will begin to move into the area today, bringing major aviation impacts to both southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska terminals. Although not much precipitation is expected during the afternoon today, the area will be socked in by clouds, with MVFR to IFR CIGs expected for all terminals. A few terminals may briefly see CIGs lift to VFR, but the window for this will be short. Precipitation will begin to move in early this evening to southeast Wyoming terminals. Precipitation will start out as rain, but transition to snow overnight when winds turn northerly. Snow will likely significantly reduce visibility. IFR visibility is anticipated once snow begins. Rain is not expected to transition to snow at western Nebraska terminals, but starting this evening, precipitation will continue throughout the night. Impacts to visibility are still possible in moderate rain. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for WYZ101-102-104>111-113-115>119. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon MDT Thursday for WYZ110-112-116. Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Thursday for WYZ114. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon MDT Thursday for WYZ115. Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for WYZ116. NE...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096. && $$ SHORT TERM...MN LONG TERM...SF AVIATION...SF  905 FXUS66 KOTX 142159 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 259 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions and light winds continue through Friday. - Temperatures trend warmer over the next few days, peaking on Friday in the upper 60s to mid 70s. - Mountain shower chances, gusty westerly winds, and cooler temperatures return for the weekend. && .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions and light winds remain in the forecast through the end of the workweek with a ridge of high pressure positioned over the region. Temperatures trend warmer each day, peaking in the upper 60s to mid 70s on Friday. Active weather returns over the weekend and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Friday: high pressure amplifies over the region. This will steer most of the moisture north around the region, with some periods higher clouds spreading over the northern to northeast CWA Thursday and then a few more clouds develop in advance of next system. Aside from some afternoon breeziness around the Upper Columbia Basin, with gusts near 15 mph, winds will be light. High temperatures trend to the mid-60s and mid-70s, with lows in the 30s and 40s. Saturday: A mostly dry cold front moves through the area, with a westerly flow and limited moisture. Clouds will thicken over the region starting Friday night into Saturday morning. Rain chances come to the Cascades, with the best chances over the crest; but at least a slight chances extends as far east as Leavenworth and the Upper Methow Valley. Snow levels will be high enough to mean mainly minor snow potential across the higher mountains. Winds increase throughout the region coming out of the west to southwest in the late morning and afternoon. Speeds of 10-20 mph are forecast, with gusts of 25-35 mph except in the more sheltered valleys. Per the NBM, the probability of peak wind gusts of 30 mph or greater from the West Plains to the Wateville Plateau and around the4 Blues to Palouse is around 70-80%, with a 20-60% chance of 40 mph gusts, with the highest probability for that around the Waterville Plateau, Upper Columbia Basin and near the Blue Mountains. Impacts such as travel difficulties, especially for high-profile vehicles, blowing dust are possible. Winds start to subside in the late afternoon to evening. Morning lows will be in the upper 30s through 40s and highs will be in the 60s to low 70s. Sunday to Wednesday: the Inland NW will be in a more progressive pattern, with a cycles of weak shortwave ridges and shortwave troughs. In this quick pattern, sometimes models don't handle the details. However look for dry weather Sunday, then some low precipitation chances developing Monday to Wednesday. The best chances will in the mountains, with late Monday the best chance at the present moment over the east third of WA and lower elevations of ID. Either way precipitation amounts look light. The chance of 0.10 inches of rain are only around 10-15% in the mountains. Snow levels average near 5-7kft. Exceptions will be near the Cascades Sunday with snow levels near 4-4.5kft and around Tuesday when they will be near 4.5kft. Overall any snow would be in the higher mountains. Temperature trend cooler, with highs in the mid-50s to lower 60s and lows in the 30s, with some upper 20s possible in the sheltered valleys and outlying areas. /Solveig && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Strengthening high pressure in the lee of the Rockies in NW Montana will lead to increasing easterly flow into Thursday morning, starting the earliest at KPUW prior to 12z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions through 18Z Thursday for all TAF sites. -----------------------Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 37 65 38 70 44 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 37 65 38 68 43 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 37 65 41 69 44 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 40 67 42 73 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 33 66 33 68 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 34 62 35 65 39 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 37 64 38 69 42 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 37 71 38 70 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 47 69 46 68 50 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 41 69 41 67 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$