214 FXUS65 KRIW 142204 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 404 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool and damp afternoon and evening, mainly east of the Divide as the west improves with clearing northwest to southeast. - Mountain snow lingers across the Winds with rain shower activity persisting east of the Divide, especially upslope into the Wind River Basin and into eastern Sweetwater to Natrona Counties. - Clearing skies and diminished rain shower activity by early to mid Thursday morning giving way to widespread freezing temperatures for Friday morning. - Warming and dry trend for Friday and over the weekend into early next week ahead of the next system by Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1200 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Mid-day IR shows improving cloud cover to the northwest portions of the CWA, expanding south, west of the Divide. Cooler cloud tops across the south and central parts of the state, where the ample rain shower activity continues on the backside of the low. Radar shows the Wind River Basin continuing to fill in from the east and southeast, stretching to the south and east across eastern Sweetwater to much of Natrona Counties. This will slowly diminish into the evening hours as it regresses southeast with the low itself. It become more progressive with the newest Hi- Res data, suggesting rain shower activity to be out of the CWA by sunrise, with a few drizzly portions of southeastern Natrona with upslope of Casper Mountain. Very minor snow possible in these higher elevations of Natrona, but any activity for the Winds will end early this afternoon if not already. Beyond that, expect clearing skies through the afternoon and evening. This will give way to hard freezing temperatures for Friday morning through 9AM, giving this the last of the freezing headlines until Spring. Ridging then builds in quite strong Friday and over the weekend, seeing widespread 60s east of the Divide in the afternoon, to even low 70s for eastern counties of Johnson and Natrona through Monday. Next up will be another GOA low pushing down into the Pacific northwest, deepening and elongating with its progression south and east with increased divergence aloft. The question, as it was with this last system, is how progressive it becomes staying more closed off or an open wave. Stay tuned for details in the coming days, but enjoy the warming trend for the weekend as it will be great for those visiting the parks for one last hoorah before winter starts knocking for good. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 The main driver in the forecast this morning remains me of one of the better movies of the mid 1990s, Leaving Las Vegas. It is because the upper level low that has brought the clouds and showers of the past few days that was centered near Las Vegas is now leaving and will be making a turn toward to the northeast, crossing Colorado through tonight before moving into the central Plains states for the end of the week. And it will continue be the main driver in the weather for about the next 24 to 36 hours. Satellite imagery shows some more enhanced cloud tops heading toward Wyoming, with showers across much of the southern two thirds of the area. There remains some uncertainty this morning in regards to how widespread the showers will be today though. Some ensemble members, as well as the operational GFS, keep the low further south, keeping more of the area mainly dry, with showers confined largely south and west of a Buffalo to Riverton to Green River line. Other members, as well as the operational European model, bring the low closer and keep showers across most of the southern two thirds of the area through this evening. There is some agreement in showers starting toend from northwest to southeast starting after midnight tonight, with all showers finally over by noon on Thursday. Now we turn to precipitation amounts. Far northwestern Wyoming should be done with showers. As for an additional quarter of an inch starting at 6 am this morning, the 1 out of 2 chance of an additional quarter inch or more runs roughly south and east of a Kaycee to east of Riverton to Rock Springs line. However, precipitation has been underperforming in most locations. The heaviest amounts, with around a 2 out of 5 chance of three quarter inches of rain are mainly in Natrona, southeastern Fremont and southern Sweetwater Counties. And finally, we talk about snow. Amounts over the passes have been rather small so far. Snow levels will reach the lowest point early this morning. With 700 millibar temperatures generally dropping to between minus 2 to minus 3, which would lower snow levels to around 7000 to 7500 feet. This would keep the lower elevations largely rain, although there could be some wet snowflakes from time to time, especially if precipitation is heavier. As for an additional inch starting at 6 am this morning, it mainly across the Wind River Range, the Green and Rattlesnake Ranges and also Casper Mountain where there is a greater than 1 in 2 chance of 1 inch or greater. When we bump it up to 3 inches, it is again mainly above 8500 feet. However, the NBM ensemble has a couple of interesting things. It still has a greater than 2 out of 5 chance of 3 inches over the higher elevations of South Pass. I am giving some thought to possibly extending the Winter Weather Advisory another 6 hours or so, when snow levels should rise another 1000 feet or so. This will likely be a gametime decision based on road conditions when we get closer to expiration, which is at 6 am. Other locations that could see over 3 inches include Casper Mountain, but all guidance keeps the chance of over 6 inches to less than 1 out of 5. The other location is the Green and Rattlesnake Range, but this would be the higher elevations with no impacts. Snow should really taper off after midnight with just about all areas done by Thursday morning. And you think we are done, but wait, there's more! And that will be the strong wind tonight. The upper level will initiate some lee cyclogenesis over Colorado and tighten the pressure gradient as the low deepens. This will be mainly after midnight tonight and into Thursday morning, although it will linger longer over Johnson County. Most areas East of the Divide as well as eastern Sweetwater County have at least a 3 out of 5 chance of wind gusts past 30 mph. The areas prone to the cold advection / north flow pattern, like Johnson County and portions of the Big Horn Basin have at least a 1 in 2 chance of gusts past 40 mph. High wind looks unlikely, as 700 millibar wind looks to top out at around 40 knots, and I would likely to see 50 knots for that. Wind should decrease Thursday afternoon as the low moves into the Plains states. And this brings us to the last main concern, a possibly killing freeze. Yes, most locations are a few weeks past the average first freeze, so we have been living on borrowed time. But many areas will have a good chance Thursday night as the wind decreases and the sky the sky clears as the low moves away. Thursday night there is a very good chance of that killing freeze. Just about the entire area has at least a 2 out of 3 chance of temperatures of 28 degrees or below. Freeze warnings will likely be needed, but we will let future shifts issue these as we still have rain and snow to deal with. Following that, it looks like some pleasant fall weather should return for several days as ridging builds back into the area. This means a mainly clear sky and temperatures near to somewhat above normalfrom Friday through the weekend and into early next week. The next chance for decent precipitation looks to hold off until the middle of next week when the next Pacific system approaches the area. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 402 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Rain showers and associated MVFR to IFR flight conditions are forecast at KRIW and KLND through 03Z and at KCPR and KRKS through 09Z, at the latest. All other terminals are forecast to remain dry this TAF period. Once rain moves out of the terminals, cloud cover is also forecast to diminish. However, low clouds are expected to push into KRKS and east of the Continental Divide terminals (KCPR, KCOD, KRIW, KLND, and KWRL) on Thursday morning. There is uncertainty in how dense cloud cover will be, with the greatest confidence in MVFR ceilings at KCPR Thursday morning. A gusty north wind pushes into most terminals after 05Z Thursday and be present for a few hours. KRKS and KWRL are the exceptions where gusty winds persist most of day on Thursday. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for WYZ005-006-010-011-016>020-028>030. && $$ UPDATE...Lowe DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Gerhardt  630 FXUS63 KIND 142210 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 610 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple rounds of showers tonight through Friday. - Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late Thursday afternoon and evening with damaging winds and heavy rain the primary threats. - Sharply colder conditions arrive Friday, accompanied by northwest wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph. - Widespread frost is likely late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)... Issued at 307 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Rest of this Afternoon and Tonight.... In the wake of the MCV organized convection now moving through parts of KY/OH, remnant showers will continue through late afternoon before stronger downward vertical motion ends precip chances for all but the far south by this evening. Copious mid-high clouds associated with convection over the southern Plains will keep any threat for fog development out of the question overnight. The remnant of the next in a chain of MCV's looks to move into the MS valley after 06Z, with some potential increase in light precip over the far western and southern portions of central Indiana towards 12Z. Meanwhile, surface analysis shows a backdoor cold front moving steadily southward through northern Indiana with temps falling at FWA recently. Have cut temps 1-2 cats late this afternoon and overnight along and north of I-70 to account for faster and further southward movement of the front compared to recent guidance. Thursday... The back door frontal boundary should be draped near and possibly just south of I-70 by 12Z Thursday where it is expected to stall. Aforementioned next MCV is likely to move into central Indiana during the morning hours. Instability ahead of this feature looks meager. But increasing isentropic lift north-nw of the frontal boundary should support scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms with mucape up to 1000 J/KG. Activity will push across much of central Indiana during the mid-late morning into early afternoon. Scattered surface based TS possible by mid-late afternoon along and south of the slowly advancing warm front. Complications to the forecast include any precip induced cold pool which may reinforce the frontal boundary location. This creates uncertainty regarding timing and location of surface based thunderstorms development and attendant severe weather threat. For now will keep all of central Indiana in the wording for marginal risk of severe weather in line with the most recent SWODY2. Thursday night and Friday... The focus for convection should diminish by midnight as the 3rd an final MCV moves east of central Indiana. However, the cold frontal boundary associated with southward moving shortwave through the western Great Lakes will support renewed shower development towards 12Z Friday. In the wake of the frontal boundary, strong CAA will lead to gusty winds up to 30 mph with temps steady to slowing falling during the afternoon. Passage of the shortwave trough axis and increasing CAA aloft will support steeper lapse rates and potential for scattered showers in NE Zones during the afternoon, with the remainder of central Indiana seeing mostly light to moderate drizzle "showers". Temperatures are likely to be 35 degrees colder Friday afternoon than they were Tuesday afternoon and combined with the strong winds, Fall will certainly feel like it has arrived! Friday Night through Wednesday... Clouds and a few light showers may linger through Friday evening as the upper wave axis shifts through the region. Skies will clear late Friday night into Saturday morning with winds relaxing as a large 1030-1035mb surface high moves into the Ohio Valley. The high will center over the region Saturday night before shifting to the East Coast Sunday and allowing for return southerly flow to commence Sunday into early next week. Upper ridging will reestablish for the first half of next week with temperatures returning to above normal levels. Deep subsidence supports an extended period of mainly clear skies Saturday into early next week. Low level thermals support the coolest daytime temperatures in the mid and upper 50s Saturday before recovery back into the low and mid 70s for the first half of next week. While a lack of boundary layer decoupling and lingering cloud coverage will likely limit frost accrual to sheltered locales Friday night...confidence remains high in a widespread frost for much of the area on Saturday night as lows fall into the 30s. Subfreezing temperatures possible for some of our normal cool spots as well Saturday night. Frost/Freeze headlines are expected to be needed Saturday night. Lows will return to the upper 40s and early 50s by midweek. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 610 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Impacts: - MVFR to IFR Cigs are expected for much of this TAF period. Discussion: Water vapor imagery continues to show a tropical plume of moisture streaming across Indiana. A warm front at the surface has slipped south of the TAF sites, allowing winds to become more northwesterly. A big change in airmass is not expected to occur during this TAF period. Most TAF sites will remain on the north side of the lingering frontal boundary, resulting in plentiful low clouds across the TAF brief IFR conditions will be possible overnight near diurnal lows. On Thursday, Low pressure will sweep across northern Illinois and push toward Michigan. This will place Central Indiana within the warm sector during the afternoon as a cold front sweeps across Central Indiana. HRRR suggests SCT shra development within the warm sector as the forcing passes. Confidence for precise timing is low. Thus have used VCSH mentions through the afternoon. Forecast soundings and time heights show plentiful lower level moisture through the period, thus MVFR conditions will expected. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ AVIATION...Puma DISCUSSION...Crosbie/Ryan  676 FXUS66 KPQR 142210 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 310 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will maintain dry weather through Friday. Offshore flow will bring unseasonably warm temperatures Thursday and Friday along with gusty east winds in the western slopes of the Cascades and Columbia River Gorge. A weak cold front will bring chances for light rain late Friday night into Saturday, before high pressure brings a quick return to dry weather Saturday night into Sunday. Chances for widespread rain return Monday into early Tuesday with an approaching low pressure system, although model guidance has been trending drier. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night...Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon shows drier air aloft moving overhead as a weak upper level trough moves out of the region, while upper level ridging amplifies over the northeast Pacific. This ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the region and into western Canada on Thursday. Surface high pressure builds into western Montana while a surface thermal trough develops along the Oregon coast Thursday morning. This will lead to a period of offshore flow with east winds through the Columbia River Gorge and western slopes of the Cascades. Warming aloft coupled with dry, downsloping winds will bring unseasonably warm temperatures across the area Thursday and Friday. Model guidance remains in good agreement for widespread high temperatures warming into the mid to upper 70s both days, including at the coast on Thursday. A few locations may see temperatures reach 80 degrees, with around a 10-60% chance along the I-5 corridor, highest chances south and east. Although high temperatures are expected to be around 10-15 degrees above normal for mid-October, most locations are not expected to break any records (which were mainly set back in 2022). Could be our last "hot" day of the year, as we typically see temperatures drop off during the second half of October. East winds will also become gusty by Thursday morning, especially through the Columbia River Gorge into the eastern Portland Metro area. Model guidance suggests surface pressure gradients increase to around -5 to -6 mb which could produce wind gusts up to 25-35 mph, except up to 45-50 mph on wind-prone exposed ridgetops. Pressure gradients likely begin to slacken later Friday morning with winds easing by the afternoon. Onshore flow returns by late Friday night ahead of an incoming cold front. /DH && .LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday Night...There is high confidence among ensemble guidance for cooler temperatures this weekend as a weak cold front swings through the region and brings chances for light rain. Light rain begins at the coast Friday night, mainly from Lincoln City northward. Rain chances spread inland Saturday morning, peaking around 40-60% across the south Washington and north Oregon Cascades, 25-50% along the I-5 corridor from Salem northward, and 10-20% south of Salem. Rain amounts, if any, will be light. Conditions quickly dry out Saturday night to Sunday as transient shortwave ridge passes through. Expect seasonable temperatures in the 60s across interior valleys and 50s along the coast and Cascades. Monday to Tuesday, the majority of ensemble members are in agreement that an upper-level trough from the northeast Pacific will approach the Pacific Northwest, bringing increased chances for widespread rain between early Monday morning and Tuesday morning. This system has the potential, albeit low, to bring a more meaningful amount of rain considering how dry conditions have been thus far this October. The NBM currently shows a 20-35% chance for at least 0.25 inches of rain between 5 AM PDT Monday and 5 AM PDT Wednesday. Probs continue to come down as there are an increasing number of ensemble members showing a solution where the upper-level trough remains farther offshore or progresses farther south into California, limiting the amount of rain in our area. Chances for impactful wind gusts over 40 mph are currently less than 10% with this system. DH/10/23 && .AVIATION...Through 00Z Friday...Along the north OR and south WA coast, including KAST, CIGs will fluctuate between high-end MVFR (2-3 kft) and VFR through around 22-23z Wed as a weak front brushes SW WA. Otherwise, VFR conditions across the airspace with mostly clear skies. Northerly to northwesterly winds around 5-10 kt for most terminals. Strengthening offshore pressure gradients between KTTD and KDLS will result in increasing easterly winds after 06z Thu along the west slopes of the Cascades and Coast Range into the coast. East winds will be strongest through the Columbia River Gorge with gusts up to 25-35 kts. These stronger east winds reach KTTD after 12-15z Thu where winds could gust up to 25-30 kts. Winds remain north 5-10 kts in the Willamette Valley. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions with mostly clear skies through the TAF period. Northwesterly winds 4-6 kt. -03 && .MARINE...Benign marine conditions continue. Southerly winds are turning northerly to northeasterly this afternoon, continuing through the end of the week. Winds turn southerly again over the weekend and into early next week as a series of fronts pass through the waters. Seas remain around 4-7 ft this week with periods of 12-14 seconds. A steeper northwesterly swell arrives this weekend, building seas to 7-9 ft by Sunday and 10-12 ft early next week. There is a 10-20% chance for seas exceeding 15 ft on Monday, with the highest chances north of Cape Falcon and beyond 30-40 NM. Will also note that the long periods from the swells will result in a moderate sneaker wave threat this week. Caution should be used when in or near the water. -10/03 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  153 FXUS63 KJKL 142217 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 617 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures remain mild through Thursday, while showers are possible at times into Friday. - A few thunderstorms capable of locally heavy rain and strong wind gusts are possible this evening. - Much cooler weather arrives for the weekend - likely the coldest we have experienced so far this autumn. This poses a risk for frost on Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 445 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026 Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge extended across portions of the Southeastern Conus and into sections of the Gulf. Further west an upper level low was over the Four Corners vicinity. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough/MCV was moving through the OH Valley and interacting with a boundary sagging toward the Commonwealth. With the ridge in place to the south, it was another day of record or near record warmth in eastern KY with highs having reached into the 80s in most locations. At JKL, the high so far has been 86, breaking the previous record of 82 from 2017/2021. Showers and a few storms associated with the sagging cold front and the shortwave trough/MCV passing by to the north have moved into northern sections of the region over the past couple of hours. Low level lapse rates are analyzed around 6.5 to 7C/km in the north with mid level lapse rates a bit on the meager side in the 5.5 to 6C/km range. MLCAPE across the region is analyzed on the modest side in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range while effective shear per SPC mesoanalysis page is on the order of 25 to 30KT in the north. PW meanwhile was recently analyzed near 1.3 inches along the VA border and around 1.9 inches in the far northwest. Upstream of the area, a wind gust to 39 mph was observed at the KY Mesonet site in northern Fayette County. This evening and tonight, the shortwave trough/MCV working through the OH Valley will move east of the area during the evening while the upper low initially over the Four Corners region should move into northeastern CO. Meanwhile further north, a shortwave will move southeast from Alberta across sections of Saskatchewan and into Manitoba and the Northern Plains. At the same time, the frontal zone will sag into eastern KY and stall out over the middle of the region. With PW expected to remain elevated and increase to the 1.9 to 2.1 inch range or in the 97th to 99th percentile range, if any training of thunderstorms were to occur it could result in locally heavier rain. With some modest instability in place as well, a storm or two this evening could result in a strong wind gust. In general, this potential is greatest near and north of the Mtn Parkway. WPC has a slight ERO in the northern sections of the area while northern areas are also in a marginal SWODY1. Otherwise, near and behind the sagging front, lowering clouds and patchy fog or stratus build down should occur as the night progresses and this will linger into Thursday morning with the boundary in the vicinity. Showers remain possible tonight near the boundary as well. For Thursday and Thursday night, the upper low that will have reached CO late tonight should weaken to an open wave and eventually merge with the trough to its north during this timeframe. This resulting 500 mb trough axis should reach Ontario to the western Great Lakes to Central Plains through late Thursday night. As this occurs, a sfc low should track from sections of the Plains to the Central to eastern Great Lakes through Thursday night. The boundary that will have stalled over eastern KY will lift back north as a warm front, while a cold front enters the Commonwealth on Thursday night. Shower chances linger into Thursday nearthe boundary before it moves north Thursday evening. A thunderstorm cannot be ruled out as well. South of the boundary, temperatures will remain mild, with highs likely to climb back well into the 80s for Thursday highs. With the front approaching, winds and gusts should increase late particularly in the west. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 616 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 When the long term forecast period opens on Friday morning, Eastern Kentucky will be on the precipice of a significant change in airmass. A robust, positively-tilted trough stretching from the Central Plains to the Upper Midwest will dig deeper into the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys as the day progresses. At the surface, this translates to a deepening cyclone over the eastern Great Lakes and a sharp cold front trailing behind it. That cold front will be the focal point of Friday's forecast, with sensible weather details such as high temperatures and wind direction dependent upon a given place's position relative to the boundary. The entire CWA will experience mild AM lows in the upper 60s on Friday morning, when forecast guidance collectively resolves the boundary off to the west in the Bluegrass. Pre-frontal surface winds will be out of the southwest. So will the flow aloft, and this vertical continuity suggests that there will be warm air advection ongoing on Friday in places out ahead of the front. FROPA has trended a little bit later in the day, and Friday's forecast highs have accordingly risen a few degrees towards the upper 70s in our easternmost counties. In counties further to the north and west, there will be a shorter window of time where this WAA overlaps with the diurnal warming cycle. So, high temperatures in places like the Bluegrass will only be a few degrees warmer than those lows (in the upper 60s/lower 70s). Those highs will also likely occur much earlier in the day than usual, as once FROPA occurs, diurnal heating will become suppressed by cloud cover and a sharp wind shift. Surface winds should shift towards a westerly and then northwesterly orientation as FROPA occurs from west to east on Friday. Frontal and orographic lift will combine to yield additional light rain shower chances along and behind the boundary, but the bigger story with this boundary will be the robust cold air advection that takes place behind it. Given the tightening pressure gradient of the parent synoptic system, Friday afternoon's post-frontal winds will be quite breezy. The REFS high-resolution ensemble resolves a 50-80% chance of wind gusts in excess of 25 mph across most of the JKL CWA in this time frame. When this criteria is lowered to >20 mph, the probabilities jump to near 100%. If it is raised above 30 mph, the odds dwindle off significantly. While wind advisory criteria is unlikely to be met, the magnitude of these winds reinforces the notion that there will be an efficient cold air advection regime in the wake of Friday afternoon's frontal passage. Expect a significant drop in temperatures to occur on Friday evening, with temperatures in the 50s area-wide by sunset. Once the sun goes down and solar insolation goes away, the temperature plummet will continue. The entire CWA should wake up to temperatures in the 40s on Saturday morning, but lingering cloud cover and some upsloped rain showers should prevent it from getting much colder than that. The same cannot be said for Saturday night/Sunday morning, which looks to be the coldest night of the autumn season thus far. As a post-frontal surface high pressure system builds into the CWA on Saturday morning, winds will shift to a more northerly orientation. This will bring an end to any orographically-enhanced post-frontal rain chances, and a much cooler/drier continental airmass will move into the region in the wake of the precipitation. Highs will struggle to get much warmer than the 50s, and dewpoints will plummet into the 30s on Saturday afternoon. Diurnal mixing should work to erode any lingering cloud cover by sunset, which should set the stage for efficient radiational cooling overnight. NBM ensemble data resolves a 60-90% chance of temperatures dropping below 36 degrees across most of the JKL CWA overnight. The most sheltered and shaded valleys could make a run at the 32 degree mark, but the probability of occurrence drops to below 40% at this threshold. As a reminder, the criteria for a Frost Advisory is defined as minimum shelter forecast temperatures between 33 and 36 degrees Fahrenheit during the growing season, on nights with good radiational cooling conditions. Saturday night is poised to meet this criteria, so agricultural interests and recreational gardeners are encouraged to monitor for potential product issuances as the time approaches. Temperatures will be slow to make a full recovery back above the 70 degree mark next week, although a gradual warm-up is expected. The postfrontal high should shift east on Sunday as the mid/upper level trough axis aloft swings through New England. Antecedent forecast thinking is that a building ridge will allow temperatures to moderate back into the 60s under fair skies by early next week. However, some of the more recent pieces of guidance (namely members of the Euro ensemble) are developing a cut-off low over the Carolinas in this time frame. That feature could block the eastward propagation of that ridging, and it would cause temperatures to stay on the lower side of the forecast envelope early next week. Nevertheless, fog should become favored over frost in the valleys at night as temperatures warm. This is typical for autumn in Eastern Kentucky, and next week's forecast features temperatures much closer to normal than what we are experiencing at the present moment. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026 Prevailing VFR was occurring at issuance time and is expected to continue to begin the period. Some low clouds and cumulus had developed in advance of a cold front, with additional cloud cover upstream in association with convection with an approaching shortwave trough and cold front. Showers and scattered thunderstorms with some brief reductions to MVFR or perhaps briefly lower are anticipated to develop during the first 6 hours of the period and affect locations mainly north of a KSJS to KJKL to KLOZ to KSME line. As the boundary gradually sags into eastern KY tonight, widespread MVFR or lower should develop by the 06Z to 12Z timeframe generally for areas near and north of a KSME to KLOZ to KJKL to KSJS. Showers will remain possible with the boundary stalled over the area during the last 6 hours of the period and reductions to MVFR and IFR are anticipated for KSJS to KJKL and north and mainly VFR to the south. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...MARCUS AVIATION...JP  272 FXUS63 KDDC 142221 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 521 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight, then be confined to central Kansas tomorrow morning - Lows in the 30s are expected Saturday morning with some areas reaching freezing or lower across far western Kansas Saturday morning && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight as another disturbance is expected to move through the area. Being on the cool side of this system, no severe weather is expected. Precipitation comes to an end from west to east after midnight and be confined to central Kansas Thursday morning. The current NBM model run depicts a half of an inch to three quarters of an inch of precipitation by tomorrow afternoon. Mostly cloudy skies are expected through tomorrow morning with clearing in the afternoon. The reminder of the forecast looks dry as upper level ridging builds across the western United States with high pressure being the dominate feature at the surface. Winds will be from the north through Friday, shifting to the south this weekend into the beginning of next week. As for temperatures, expect highs to only reach into the 50s this afternoon due to the copious amounts of cloudiness and drizzle/rain. Highs tomorrow look to range from the upper 50s across our northern zones to upper 60s along the KS/OK border. If clouds remain longer than expected, highs may be lower than expected. Friday looks to be the coldest day of the forecast with highs in the 50s. We then rebound into the 60s Saturday with 70s returning Sunday into the first part of next week. Lows will dip into the mid 40s to upper 50s tonight with upper 30s tomorrow night. Lows around 30 degrees to low 30s are then expected Saturday morning. A freeze watch may be needed across far western Kansas in the future to account for freezing temperatures. Lows then rebound into the 40s by the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 519 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Prevailing low level stratus and areas of fog will result in persistent IFR cigs and MVFR/IFR vsbys in vicinity of all TAF sites through early Thursday. Additionally, showers with embedded thunderstorms developing across the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma will spread northeast through southwest/central Kansas overnight, potentially affecting the vicinity of all TAF sites as well. Light east-northeast winds overnight are expected to turn north-northwesterly 10 to 20kt generally after 08-10Z as a secondary cold front pushes southeast through western Kansas. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ064- 077>080-087-088. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bennett AVIATION...JJohnson  599 FXUS63 KPAH 142229 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 529 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances have decreased for this afternoon and into the overnight. Tomorrow's chances are more limited to the northwestern most portions of the area. - A few of tomorrow's storms could be strong to severe and are limited to mainly the northern most portions of the CWA. - Cooler conditions are expected Friday through the weekend behind the cold front. Friday will also be breezy with northwest winds gusting up to 30 mph at times. - Sunday kicks off a warming trend with highs returning back to around or slightly above normal by mid week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 529 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Above normal temperatures continue through tomorrow. A frontal boundary is slowly sagging south through the northern portions of the CWA this afternoon. The front will continue to drift south this evening and should end up south of the CWA by the overnight hours. It will then lift back north through the day tomorrow. The remainder of today looks drier than originally forecast with dry air infiltrating the mid levels. Some redevelopment may occur later this afternoon and evening but uncertainty is higher due to the models not picking up on the current situation very well. Some showers and storms could form along and north of the front tomorrow. A small portion of the areas including our northern most counties could see a few strong to severe storms with the main threat being damaging winds. Tomorrow night a cold front comes through and brings cooler and breezier conditions for Friday. Due to cloud cover and a stronger cold air advection signal, have lowered highs slightly for Friday. Friday's highs look to be in the upper 50s and lower 60s with breezy northwest winds with gusts up to 30 mph (mainly for northwest portions of the area with lesser gusts elsewhere). Saturday highs look to be in the 60s but Saturday night lows could be in the 30s and could bring a first frost for the season. Sunday then kicks off a warming trend with highs coming back up to around normal or even slightly above by midweek. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 529 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 A front's slow sag across the FA will focus shower/storm chances with associated restricted bases/cigs and vsbys. IFR cigs are possible overnight with diminished shower activity with time, and may be slow/stubborn to improve tmrw but should eventually climb thru restricted base categories and approach or reach into VFR by/during the planning phase hours of the forecast. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE... DISCUSSION... AVIATION...  190 FXUS64 KMAF 142244 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 544 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 541 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding are expected through Friday across much of west Texas. A few storms may also become severe, posing a threat for mainly damaging winds and large hail this afternoon and evening. - A front Thursday night/Friday morning brings much cooler temperatures to the region through the weekend. - Thursday night/Friday morning's front also brings breezy northeasterly winds to the area. High gap winds will be possible in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains following the frontal passage. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Area radars show round #1 of convection has ended for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, w/CAMs suggesting round #2 commencing around 20Z or so. Latest KMAF radar bias is 0.71, suggesting the airmass is convective, as cells are still producing hail to some extent. That said, KMAF 12Z raob came in w/a PWAT of 1.75". The 100th percentile is 1.44", and the (now old) record is 1.69". With any luck, tonight will transition from a severe to hydrologic event as remnants of Hurricane Simon become better entrenched. Tonight, best chances for convection will be from the Big Bend northeast through the Western Low Rolling Plains, w/deep layer shear of 40-50 kts supporting a few supercells. MRMS precipitation estimates for the past 24 hours indicate saturated soils will continue the flood threat, as well. A 35 kt LLJ and abundant cloud cover will keep overnight minimums warm...around 15 F above climatology. Thursday, the Four Corners trough will eject into the Central Plains, only to have a secondary trough develop in its wake. This feature will quickly dig SW to the SoCal/Baja border by Thursday evening, while at the surface, a cold front begins intruding upon the region. The front, precipitation, and cloud cover will keep highs right around normal. Best rain chances will continue over the southeastern CWA, w/hopefully just flash flooding being the main concern by this times. Thursday night, w/the loss of whatever diurnal heating was to be had Thursday, the cold front will surge southward, yielding the coolest temperatures yet this Fall as lows plunge to within a degree or so of normal. This front looks strong enough for gap winds in the pass, and we've issue a watch for this. Best chances for rain will be in the Big Bend Area, where the highest moisture will reside. Flash flooding in the park and rises on the Rio Grande should be the main concerns by this time. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Northeasterly winds become breezy and temperatures plummet areawide behind Thursday night/Friday morning's front. Strong cold air advection keeps highs in the upper 50s and low 60s across west Texas and southeast New Mexico Friday afternoon. As mentioned in the Short Term, high gap winds will be possible in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains following the front through Saturday morning. The front also pushes the best rain chances (50-80%) southward towards the Davis Mountains, Big Bend, Presidio Valley, and Lower Trans-Pecos Friday morning and into the afternoon. By late Friday afternoon and early evening, winds generally begin to weaken and rain chances diminish across the area. Saturday morning will feature some of the coldest temperatures we have seen so far this season. Lows dip into the 40s for most locations, with upper 30s in the higher terrain and usual cold spots. Continued northeasterly winds keep Saturday's highs similar toFriday's, albeit a degree or two warmer. Likewise, lows Sunday morning end up a degree or two warmer overall than Saturday morning. From Sunday through at least the middle of next week, a more robust warming trend develops. Highs Sunday top out in the 60s and low 70s for most as winds veer to the south again. By Monday and Tuesday, temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s become commonplace. As far as rain goes, from Saturday through early next week most locations look to stay dry, with chances staying generally below 15%. By the middle of next week, the NBM reintroduces low (10-30%) rain chances for portions of the area as another system nears. However, differences in the timing and location of this system exist between long range models, which keeps confidence low at this time. Sprang && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 541 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Round two of expected convection has moved through over the past few hours, but CAMs suggest redevelopment is possible KMAF/KFST for the next few hours. NBM still brings in MVFR/IFR cigs overnight KMAF/KFST/KHOB. A cold front will move into the area late tonight/Thursday, and should fropa all terminals by late Thursday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 67 77 51 60 / 80 60 70 10 Carlsbad 61 81 53 63 / 0 0 10 10 Dryden 71 82 53 59 / 50 70 100 90 Fort Stockton 66 78 49 57 / 70 70 100 70 Guadalupe Pass 59 74 46 52 / 0 0 20 10 Hobbs 60 76 48 58 / 20 10 10 0 Marfa 59 74 41 50 / 50 60 90 70 Midland Intl Airport 67 77 51 59 / 60 60 60 10 Odessa 67 77 51 58 / 50 60 60 10 Wink 65 80 51 61 / 20 30 50 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Flood Watch until 11 PM CDT this evening for Andrews-Borden- Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Ector-Gaines- Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau- Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler. Flood Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills- Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton- Ward-Winkler. NM...High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...99  541 FXUS63 KILX 142252 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 552 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The next efficient push of rain will come late tonight into early tomorrow morning as the front pushes back north as a warm front. The LPMM is showing some localized swaths of 1-3 inches of rain from 3am Thursday to 3am Friday on top of what has already fallen this morning. - Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanying a strong cold front tomorrow afternoon and evening. SPC has a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather, including a 5% damaging wind risk and 2% tornado risk, from about a Pittsfield to Gibson City line and south. - Wind gusts on Friday will be around 30-40 mph. The LREF shows a 40-70% chance of wind gusts greater than 35 mph west of I-57 Friday morning, with gusts relaxing after 1pm that afternoon. - Much cooler weather will settle into the region Friday through the weekend potentially resulting in areas of frost both Saturday and Sunday mornings. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 138 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 The cold front will continue to sag south of the forecast area this afternoon. Widely dry weather is in store for the remainder of the day across central and southeastern IL. Many people won't see significant relief from the warmer temperatures until after the system exits tomorrow night. There could be some light, scattered showers late this evening in the west, but the next efficient push of rain will come late tonight into early tomorrow morning as the front pushes back north as a warm front. The morning round of widespread rain could have some high rainfall rates at times and be a proficient rain producer. PWATs will be around 1.8-2.1 inches, which is high for the month of October. The average PWAT for October 15th is around 0.6-0.7 inches based off the SPC sounding climatology. The good news is that our soils can handle this rain decently since we have been so dry lately. The rain is welcomed. The LPMM is showing some localized swaths of 1-3 inches of rain from 08z Thursday to 08z Friday on top of what has already fallen this morning. A short period of dry weather will move in briefly early in the afternoon tomorrow before the trailing cold front races eastward. When the cold front advances east tomorrow afternoon/evening, a severe weather risk and additional rain will be accompanying it. Currently, SPC has a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather, including a 5% damaging wind risk and 2% tornado risk, from about a Pittsfield to Gibson City line and south. The environment looks supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms. Storm type looks like it may begin as discrete, supercells that will evolve into a multicell/QLCS mode as it exits to the east. How much of this primed environment we will achieve will be determined by if we can recover fully from the morning convection/rainfall. Timing of these storms seems to be ~20z-02z. After these storms exit to the east, additional showers and thunderstorms (not severe) could occur through Friday evening. After Friday afternoon, the forecast will be dry through the extended period. After the cold front pushes off to our east early Friday morning, cooler, more fall like temperatures will be ushered in for a few days. Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the upper 50s to low 60s, with lows in the mid to upper 30s. There is a chance for some patchy frost to develop across the northern half of the state Saturday morning and most of the state Sunday morning. How widespread the frost can get on Saturday morning will depend if the wind doesn't get too gusty. Beyond Sunday morning, temperatures will begin to warm back up to low 70s for highs on Monday, then to upper 70s by Wednesday next week. The pressure gradient with the passing low pressure system will tighten behind the cold front. Wind gusts on Friday will be around 30-40 mph, with the greatest wind gusts possible west of I-57. The LREF shows a 40-70% chance of wind gusts greater than 35 mph west of I-57 Friday morning, with gusts relaxing after 1pm that afternoon. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 552 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 A mix of ceiling heights above and below the MVFR threshold this evening, will trend to MVFR area wide overnight. There is a high probability (60-80%) that IFR ceilings will affect all central IL terminals Thursday morning into the afternoon. Scattered SHRA will be possible on Thursday, with a chance of TSRA later in the afternoon. Coverage and timing are both low confidence at this point, so kept mention to PROB30. Northeast winds near/under 10 kt tonight, will veer southeast Thursday morning, then southwest during the afternoon. Some gusts over 20 kt are possible ahead of the cold front late in the afternoon. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Copple DISCUSSION...Copple AVIATION...25  719 FXUS64 KHGX 142257 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 557 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid conditions continue today with scattered showers and storms this afternoon, mostly west of I-45. - A cold front pushes through the region on Friday, bringing gusty north winds and much cooler conditions this weekend. - Hazardous marine conditions expected in the wake of the front. Small Craft Advisories are likely, and potential gale conditions are trending upward. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Ridging overtop the region and onshore winds at the surface should maintain WAA/moisture advection, keeping above normal temperatures in place through mid week. Highs remain in the upper 80s/90s with lows in the 70s/lower 80s. Scatted showers and thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon, though a slot of drier air is currently pushing into the region from the east. Satellite imagery shows a sharp moisture gradient with 2.0-2.2 inch PWs overhead, with 0.80 inch PWs pushing in from Louisiana. Best rain chances should remain mostly west of I-45 this afternoon with a lull tonight as this drier air fills in. Moisture and rain chances rise again Thursday into Friday. A cold front is expected to push into SE Texas on Friday, bringing a significant cool down heading into the weekend. Current guidance has this cold front reaching KCLL early in the morning, later moving off the coast by the early afternoon. Scattered showers/storms may develop along the front, especially near the coast where moisture is deeper, though weak dynamics and the fast moving FROPA means that severe/hydro concerns are low for the time being. Model guidance has trended towards a faster FROPA with greater intensity as well, showing high pressure behind the front reaching 1040-1045mb over the Plains. Windy conditions are expected to set in behind the front, reaching 15-25 mph with higher gusts through the afternoon for most areas. Along the immediate coast and barrier islands, these winds could reach 25-35 mph. These winds will be strongest Friday night into Saturday morning, with Gale conditions possible over the waters. Cooler, drier air should fill in behind the front with morning lows for Saturday in the upper 40s/50s inland and lower 60s right along the coast. Daytime highs will also be cooler, generally in the upper 60s/lower 70s. The coldest temperatures are still forecasted for Sunday morning, around the upper 40s/50s inland and lower 60s at the coast (though a few degrees cooler). Temperatures gradually warm thereafter, with rain chances increasing into next week as coastal trough sets up along the Texas Coast. 03 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 556 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 VFR conditions persist through this TAF cycle. Calm and VRB winds overnight will turn SE by mid to late morning. There is a chance of MVFR cigs/vis at CLL during the early morning hours. A 6SM BR with BKN030 cigs was included to hint at that potential. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible along the sea breeze tomorrow afternoon, but rain chances are too low to include in this TAF package. JMG && .MARINE... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue through mid week and may prompt caution flags at times. A cold front is expected to push off the coast on Friday, producing strong northerly winds and high seas, especially Friday night and Saturday Morning. Small Craft Advisories will be needed at minimum with Gale conditions possible. There is a 30-60% chance of sustained winds reaching Gale force over the Gulf waters early Saturday morning. Winds and seas begin todecrease Saturday afternoon, subsiding into Sunday. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 68 92 65 73 / 20 0 40 0 Houston (IAH) 72 92 71 79 / 0 10 40 30 Galveston (GLS) 78 87 74 81 / 0 20 70 80 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...JMG MARINE...03  671 FXUS64 KSJT 142256 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 556 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms possible in northern and western parts of our area late this evening into tonight, with locally heavy rain and localized flooding possible in northern and western parts of our area. - A Flood Watch has been issued for Thursday into Friday morning with heavy rainfall across much of the area increasing the potential for some areas of Flash Flooding. - Marginal to Slight Risk for Excessive rainfall through Thursday morning across much of the area, with a Marginal to Moderate Risk for Thursday into Friday morning. - Much cooler temperatures expected Friday into the weekend with gusty north winds on Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 A series of upper-level disturbances ahead of the main upper- level trough to the northwest are expected to bring multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms to much of West Central Texas this evening through Thursday. With ample moisture influx across the region under persistent south to southwesterly flow, PW (precipitable water) values are expected to range from 1.5 to 2 inches. This will lead to any showers or thunderstorms that do develop to be "efficient" rain producers, which can cause heavy rainfall and increased potential for flooding. Much of the area is outlooked in a Marginal to Slight Risk for Excessive rainfall this evening through Friday morning, and a Marginal to Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms north and west of a Cross Plains to Sonora line. A Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall was recently added for Day 2 (Thursday into Friday morning) for portions of the Northern Edwards Plateau. As of this forecast package, we decided against issuing a Flood Watch for tonight into Thursday morning due to continued uncertainty with amounts and placement of where the heavy rainfall can develop. However, we have issued a Flood Watch for Thursday afternoon through Friday morning given the slightly higher confidence in heavy rainfall amounts across portions of the area. The good news is with these showers and thunderstorms across the area over the next few days, and a cold front tracking through the area, cooler temperatures are expected Thursday into Friday. High temperatures Thursday will struggle to make it into the upper 70s to upper 80s, with the warmest temperatures across the southeastern counties where less rainfall chances are expected. Friday's highs are expected to fall into the 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 The threat of heavy rainfall and potential for flash flooding continues across much of the area, north and west of a Cross Plains to Sonora line Thursday night through Friday morning. A Flood Watch is in place for Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for the increasing potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. WPC currently has much of the area outlooked in a Marginal to Slight Risk for Excessive rainfall, with a small area of Moderate Risk across parts of the Northern Edwards Plateau. For moisture, PW values will increase to 1.5 to 2.3 inches, low level southerly flow will be advecting copious amounts of low level moisture across the western part of the area, and some energy from remnants of Hurricane Simon will be transported into this system too. In addition, about a 6 hour window of strong overrunning behind a cold front mainly across the southern Concho Valley and Crockett County for early Friday morning. Please keep up with the latest weather information and have multiple ways of receiving weather alerts and information. We begin to dry out this weekend, as this system weakens and shears out, and another storm system will bring a chance of rain for the middle of next week. As for temperatures, temperatures will start to cool Thursday night, with high temperatures Friday through Saturday remaining in the 60s, then gradually warming into the mid 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 555 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Generally VFR conditions with southerly winds this evening. A few brief showers and/or thunderstorms could affect western terminals before the main line of storms to the west moves in later tonight. The highest chance for storms looks to be at Abilene, Sweetwater and San Angelo roughly between 06-13Z. Regardless, MVFR ceilings should develop after 06Z for all terminals and persist through the morning before some improvement after 18Z. A cold front will approach from the north and should result in a wind shift from the north after 21Z tomorrow with additional chances for thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 72 84 54 62 / 70 90 90 10 San Angelo 69 84 51 63 / 50 70 100 10 Junction 68 87 54 66 / 20 10 70 10 Brownwood 68 87 53 65 / 10 30 60 0 Sweetwater 69 79 52 60 / 90 90 90 10 Ozona 68 80 51 60 / 70 70 100 20 Brady 68 87 54 64 / 10 20 70 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones- Nolan-Runnels-Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor- Throckmorton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...TP LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...SK  762 FXUS62 KMLB 142258 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 658 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 208 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Rain chances gradually rise through the remainder of the work week, with slightly above normal high temperatures. - A wet and windy weekend is forecast behind a passing front, with conditions persisting into early next week. Wind Advisories are likely and flooding concerns return, especially along the southern coast. - Dangerous boating conditions, high surf, and up to moderate beach erosion are expected behind the front and into early next week. Residents and visitors should use caution near the beach and remain out of the water beginning this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Rest of Today-Tonight...Drier air lingers across the area today, with PWATs near 1". That, combined with subsidence aloft from high pressure across the Deep South has limited most shower development today. However, a few very isolated light showers embedded within the stratocu field have been noted on KMLB radar today. Thus, have maintained a low, 15-20%, PoP area-wide today. CAMs still suggest a few showers are possible this afternoon west of Orlando prior to sunset. Regardless, mostly dry conditions persist, though showers will be possible along the coast overnight. They may occasionally drift onshore, embedded within easterly flow. Warm highs in the mid to upper 80s will remain in the lower to mid-70s tonight. Coastal areas look to linger in the upper 70s with winds 5-10 mph from the east. Thursday-Friday...The ridge moves off of the Southeast coast tomorrow, then farther into the Atlantic Friday, as a trough digs through the northern US. This trough will then push a surface front into the central Florida peninsula Friday night. Onshore flow prevails through the period, increasing to 10-15 mph once again Thursday afternoon. However, winds remain overall light Friday, reaching only 10 mph along the coast behind the diffuse sea breeze. Moisture builds northward through the period, with scattered showers and storms (30-50%) forecast south of Melbourne in the afternoon. From around Orlando northward, drier conditions are forecast, though a low chance (20%) for coastal showers will linger overnight. PWATs near 2" will support increased coverage (60%) of showers and storms area-wide Friday, with a possible sea breeze collision over the far interior late. Overall, the threat for strong storms is low, with warm temperatures aloft -5 to -6 C, but a gust or two to 45 mph cannot be ruled out. Temperatures climb to slightly above normal, in the upper 80s to near 90 late week, as overnight lows remain in the 70s. Saturday-Tuesday...The surface front is forecast to reach south Florida Saturday morning. However, the mid-level trough looks to lag behind slightly, passing through central Florida through day. The front then looks to remain stalled in the vicinity of south Florida into early next week, as strong ridging builds over the eastern US, north of the Florida peninsula. A tight pressure gradient between the front and the ridge will lead to windy conditions rapidly developing from north to south Saturday, which linger through the weekend and into early next week. Daybreak to begin the weekend may even have generally light northerly flow. However, by Saturday afternoon, sustained NNE winds build to 15-25 mph and gusts to 25-35 mph. Winds only further increase into Sunday and Monday as they veer ENE, with winds 20-25 mph area-wide and gusts 30-40 mph. The highest winds are forecast along the coast, remaining breezy to windy overnight. Breezy conditions inland will become windy into the afternoon, with daytime heating. Needless to say, Wind Advisories are likely through the weekend and into early next week, with conditions persisting through the forecast period. With the front stalled across southern Florida, PWATs look to remain up to 1.6-2" south of Cape Canaveral. This, combined with stout onshore flow, will lead to multiple rounds of fast-moving showers moving into coastal areas. Portions of the southern coast are highlighted in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall (1/4) this weekend. The greatest threat looks to be along the Treasure Coast, where training bands of showers are likely. 90th percentile 48 hour rainfall accumulations of 3-5" are forecast for the Marginal Risk area Saturday into Sunday. However, portions of Martin and St Lucie Counties have a 25% chance of exceeding 4" during the same period. Thus, will need to monitor the threat for flooding, especially in areas that have seen recent heavy rainfall. PoPs 60-80% are forecast for the southern coast through early next week. Elsewhere, drier air filtering into the area will limit the heavy rainfall threat, with PoPs 20-50%. The threat for strong storms will be low due to warm temperatures aloft (-6 C at 500mb). Though showers or storms may locally enhance the already windy flow. High temperatures fall into the upper 70s to lower 80s through early next week, as lows fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s. This prolonged period of strong onshore flow will lead to dangerous beach and boating conditions. Gale- force wind gusts look to produce high surf, with breaking waves 9-12 ft. Multiple tidal cycles of high surf will also contribute to up to moderate beach erosion, especially north of Cape Canaveral. Residents and visitors should use caution near the beach and remain out of the water. && .MARINE... Issued at 208 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Rest of Today-Friday...Favorable boating conditions prevail through Friday, as high pressure persists across the local waters. ENE flow increases to 10-15 kts in the afternoons through Thursday, becoming lighter and a little more variable on Friday. Seas remain around 2-3 feet through the period. Isolated showers today increase in coverage through the end of the work week, becoming scattered and continuing during the overnights. Saturday-Monday (modified previous)...Boating conditions rapidly deteriorate into the weekend, becoming hazardous to dangerous as a front sweeps southward across the waters. N/NE winds rapidly increase through the day on Saturday to around 25-30 knots, with frequent gusts to gale force forecast. Winds quickly veer to the E/NE Saturday night and remain onshore through early next week, with at least a strong onshore breeze and frequent gusts to gale force continuing across the entire waters. Seas respond by quickly building to around 10-14 feet by Saturday night and remain around that height through early next week. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated to scattered storms will also persist across the waters, with this activity continuing to push toward the coast and onshore, especially along the Treasure Coast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 658 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Isolated showers over the Atlantic waters approach portions of the coast this evening, and have included VCSH at DAB/TIX through 06Z. Rain chances increase across the south into Thursday, and VCSH is mentioned at Treasure Coast terminals after 12Z/14Z for rounds of isolated to scattered showers. Onshore winds diminish to 5 kts or less tonight, gently turning north-northeast across areas of the interior. East winds increase near 10 kts tomorrow afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 85 74 87 / 20 10 10 60 MCO 72 90 74 90 / 10 10 10 60 MLB 76 87 76 87 / 20 20 30 60 VRB 75 88 75 89 / 20 40 30 60 LEE 71 89 73 89 / 00 0 60 SFB 71 89 73 90 / 10 10 10 60 ORL 72 89 74 90 / 10 10 10 60 FPR 75 88 75 88 / 20 50 40 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wishard AVIATION...Law