981 FXUS65 KVEF 142301 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 401 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Gusty north-northwesterly winds expected Thursday and Friday with gust speeds between 40 and 50 mph. * Precipitation chances return to the region Tuesday and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday. Gusty north winds generally between 20 and 30 mph continue today as a closed low weakens into an open wave and lifts eastward out of the area. On Thursday, energy left behind from the aforementioned open wave will combine with a vort lobe riding along the leftover northwesterly flow aloft and will close off over southeastern California. This will bring with it a 65-75 kt jet and corresponding surface north-northeasterly wind gusts between 40 and 50 mph. This trajectory of winds will result in easterly downslope winds, which could bring occasional gusts between 50 and 60 mph to locations nestled in valleys along the eastern flanks of area mountains including Interstate 40 east of the Hualapai Mountains in southern Mohave County and Highway 160 in Pahrump. As a result, the Wind Advisory in place for the Colorado River Valley, southern Clark County, and eastern San Bernardino County from 8 AM Thursday through 11 AM Friday has been expanded to include Death Valley National Park, the Clark County Mountains, far southern Nye County, and most of Mohave County. Confidence continues to increase that the closed low over southern California will usher moisture from Hurricane Simon into the region over the weekend. Ensemble means indicate that PWATs will increase to around 0.75 inches across the Mojave Desert and will stick around into early next week. That said, without instability, this moisture is unlikely to bring precipitation... However, a longwave trough is progged to swing into central California early next week, which will provide the aforementioned instability needed to bring precipitation chances back to the forecast area. Right now, there are 30 to 40 percent chances of precipitation on Tuesday and Wednesday areawide with snow levels between 8000 and 9000 feet. Stay tuned as this forecast develops and confidence increases through the week. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package... North-northeast winds this afternoon with gusts to around 20 kts before becoming light and more variable this evening. Northerly winds will re-develop on Thursday morning with gusts between 20 and 30 kts. Otherwise, dry conditions and clear skies. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Northerly breezes will continue across much of the region today and tomorrow. Wind gusts generally 15-30 knots. Winds will relax in most locations this evening and overnight but re-develop Thursday morning with gusts of 25-40 knots. VFR conditions under clear skies. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Soulat AVIATION...Czyzyk For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  075 FXUS64 KOHX 142303 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 603 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 547 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Unseasonably warm weather will last through Thursday with record highs possible. - There are medium to high rain/storm chances this afternoon and evening along and north of I-40. - A dry, breezy cold front will arrive on Friday, bringing much cooler temperatures this weekend and into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1057 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Record temperatures are expected today and again tomorrow as strong high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern across Middle Tennessee both at the surface and aloft. A surface boundary is lurking not far to our northwest, but it will be another 48 hours or so before the cold front actually comes through Middle Tennessee. In the meantime, we expect convection to begin developing by early afternoon today and continue into the evening owing to the close proximity of the surface boundary, existing atmospheric instability and record precipitable water values for this date. Most of the convection will remain north of I-40, and QPF values overall are quite modest, although isolated spots could receive brief, heavy rainfall. Fortunately, the risk of any severe storms remains very low. The primary impact today and tomorrow is going to be the heat. Temperatures tomorrow will likely be even warmer than today's as warm air piles up against the surface boundary as it crawls toward Middle Tennessee. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1057 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 We expect fropa to occur in Middle Tennessee on Friday, after which there will be a dramatic drop in temperatures. In fact, the drop will be so dramatic that some frost might actually occur Sunday morning along the Cumberland Plateau and other cool spots. Friday's fropa will be a dry one, with the exception of a few showers Friday and Friday night across portions of the Cumberland Plateau. After that, rain chances going forward are non-existent for the remainder of the 7-day forecast. Temperatures next week will rebound somewhat, but will remain pleasant and autumn-like. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 547 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 The TAF period will begin with a band of thunderstorms in northwest Middle TN, impacting CKV with periods of heavy downpours and gusty winds around 30KT through 02Z. These storms will weaken as they push eastward. Short range models keep most of the cells north of BNA and MQY, so these sites will be coded with VCTS 01-04Z. Otherwise, VFR will prevail through the taf period with south southwest winds mostly less than 10KT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 70 92 66 74 / 30 10 0 0 Clarksville 69 92 62 69 / 60 10 0 10 Crossville 64 84 62 75 / 20 10 0 10 Columbia 68 93 65 77 / 10 10 0 0 Cookeville 67 87 64 74 / 20 10 0 10 Jamestown 66 86 65 74 / 20 10 0 20 Lawrenceburg 66 90 63 78 / 10 10 0 0 Murfreesboro 68 92 65 77 / 20 10 0 0 Waverly 69 90 63 68 / 40 10 0 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....13  231 FXUS62 KJAX 142307 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 707 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Minor River Flooding Continues Along Lower Portions of the Satilla River - Inland Fog Late Tonight into Thursday Morning - Local NorEaster Conditions Return this Weekend. Dangerous Surf Zone Conditions - High Risk for Rip Currents & Rough, High Surf. Small Craft Advisory, Potential Gusts to Gale Force Sunday into Monday. Minor Tidal Flooding Potential at Coast, ICW & St. Johns Basin. Extended duration minor flooding along St Johns River into next week possible && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Main Highlights through Tonight: - Patchy to Areas of Fog, locally dense Surface high pressure will remain in place across the area Tonight. The combination of low level moisture from recent rains and light winds, will produce fog again Tonight. The fog may become locally dense. Due to a light onshore flow across the relatively warmer coastal waters, lows will range from the lower 60s over inland SE GA, to the upper 60s to around 70 along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Potential for a few strong storms over north central FL Friday afternoon High pressure over the area will begin to shift east towards the Atlantic as a cold front pushes in from the west. The front will begin to push into the area on Friday, sweeping south of the area by Friday night. Easterly onshore winds persist on Thursday, then veer to southwesterly on Friday ahead of the front away from the coast. Stronger winds are expected to develop along the coast as high pressure builds northwest of the area after the front's passage during the overnight hours into Saturday. Dry conditions will continue on Thursday. Chances of precipitation make a return Friday for locations across north central Florida, primarily along the coast as onshore flow continues to bring in moisture onshore. Could see a couple of storms develop by the afternoon hours. Daytime highs will range in the 80s during the end of the work week, with warmer temperatures over inland locations. Overnight Lows will be in the 60s, warmer temperatures along coastal locations. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Coastal hazards including tidal flooding, gusty winds, elevated rip risk expected from Saturday through Tuesday After the passage of a cold front, high pressure builds north of the area this weekend. This will bring elevated northeasterly onshore winds across the local waters and coastal locations through the weekend and into the upcoming week. This will bring chances of showers along coastal locations through midweek. The elevated onshore flow will bring coastal hazards such as tidal flooding, rip currents, high surf, and minor to moderate beach erosion. Winds will begin to taper off by midweek as the high pressure begins to weaken. Temperatures will be below average during the period, with daytime highs around the mid to upper 70s during the weekend, upper 70s to lower 80s by next week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure will prevail over area this 00z TAF period. VFR conditions are expected this evening, with fog developing overnight due to ample low level moisture. Restrictions due to fog are anticipated overnight into Thursday morning. VFR conditions are forecast from mid morning Thursday through Thursday afternoon. && .MARINE... High pressure over the southeast states will move slowly east, and push welloffshore tonight into Friday with light winds and seas. A strong cold front will cross the local waters late Friday night through Saturday morning, followed by high pressure building to the north. The passage of the cold front will bring a surge of strong north to northeasterly winds over the waters with elevated seas by late Friday night and Saturday into early next week. Small Craft Advisories are anticipated with the potential for Gale conditions this weekend into early next week. Rip Currents: Northeasterly winds will combine with an easterly ocean swell to create a lower end moderate risk at the northeast FL beaches Today through Thursday, while low surf heights keep the risk generally low at the southeast GA beaches. Rough surf and a high rip current risk develops this weekend as strong northeasterly winds develop. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Patchy Low Dispersions This Afternoon - Patchy High Afternoon Dispersions Friday Through Monday High pressure remains over the area into Friday, with easterly winds persisting. Southwesterly winds develop on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will push through the area by Friday night. Northeasterly winds develop this weekend behind the cold front as high pressure builds north of the area. Elevated winds are expected along the Atlantic coast of SE GA and NE FL beginning late Friday Night, with the elevated winds persisting into the upcoming week. This will bring chances of showers for coastal locations through the weekend and next week. Poor to Fair dispersions persist this afternoon, with fair dispersions expected Thursday afternoon. By Friday, Good to High dispersions develop over SE GA ahead of the frontal boundary, with Fair dispersions expected over NE FL. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Areas of dense fog is expected during the late night and early morning hours through Friday Morning. This will mainly be over inland areas and Dense Fog Advisories may be required the next few mornings. Thunderstorm potential north central FL Friday afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Minor flooding will continue along lower portions of the Satilla River during the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 61 87 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 68 83 70 85 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 66 86 68 87 / 0 0 0 10 SGJ 70 84 71 86 / 0 10 0 30 GNV 65 88 68 88 / 0 0 0 40 OCF 67 88 70 88 / 0 0 0 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$  184 FXUS65 KFGZ 142306 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 406 PM MST Wed Oct 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Expect clear and cool conditions tonight, with generally dry and breezy weather Thursday and Friday. Tropical moisture may return this weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION...A cold upper low near the Four Corners will eject into Colorado tonight, leaving our skies clear and cool. At the same time, a cold front diving through the Great Plains will bring fairly robust easterly gradients into our state. Most east winds will start on Thursday, peaking early Friday and then dropping off heading into the weekend. Although there will be some locally enhanced gusts over 40 mph at times, much of the area should stay below criteria. This front is the result of a highly-apmlifed pattern that will spawn a new cut-off low off the Baja Peninsula by Friday. This low will hang around for a few days, potentially tapping into moisture from Hurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Trudy. Even if these systems do not feed into the low, they are likely to induce a surge through the Gulf of California. Sounding familiar? Yes, we are entering another weekend with the potential for tropical moisture, followed by a cold front later next week. This setup does not look quite as crazy as the last one, but stay in tune with your weather forecasts over the next few days. && .AVIATION...Thursday 15/00Z through Friday 16/00Z...VFR conditions expected. Isolated -SHRA north of a KPGA-KRQE line through 03Z, elsewhere will be dry. Light and variable winds overnight, outside localized breezy NE winds downwind of terrain. After 15Z, look for N-NE winds 15-25 kts gusting near 35 kts. OUTLOOK...Friday 16/00Z through Sunday 18/00Z...VFR conditions forecast through the period. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA possible along and south of the Mogollon Rim after 18Z Saturday. Winds will be out of the E-NE through the period, initially between 15-25 kts on Friday, becoming lighter 10-20 kts on Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Cool and windy conditions throughout the period. Winds are northeast through east 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph on Thursday through Friday, remaining elevated overnight. Strongest winds will be along/downwind of higher terrain features in Yavapai and Coconino Counties and north of the White Mountains. Min RH is 30-60% on Thursday then 20-40% on Friday. Daytime temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler than normal. Saturday through Monday...Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain for each day. Winds are 10-20 mph from the east on Saturday, light and variable on Sunday, then southwest 5-15 mph on Monday. Daytime temperatures remain 5-10 degrees cooler than normal. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...Konieczny FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  257 FXUS64 KLZK 142307 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 607 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Above normal to near record temperatures will continue through the next few afternoons. - Wednesday afternoon heat index values will near or possibly 100 degrees. - Scattered showers possible across the northwest half of the state Wednesday afternoon. - Another round of elevated to critical wildfire danger will be possible on Friday. - Much cooler temperatures expected by this weekend, including possible frost conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Recent objective analysis depicted a 30 to 40 kt SWrly H850 LLJ positioned acrs the Ozark Plateau. Regional mosaic radar imgry also revealed incrsg covg of elevated precip asctd w/ wrm advection over NErn OK and SWrn MO, ahead of an advancing convective complex fm SErn KS, w/ 00Z HREF/REFS solns suggesting the leading edge of this complex wl be moving acrs NWrn to Nrn AR near 12Z Wed mrng. There is still some uncertainty regarding how far south precip activity will reach thru Wed aftn, and this wl mainly depend on the resultant outflow strength. Latest hi-res QPF guidance suggests a swath of one to two inches across far NWrn AR, w/ isolated amounts near one inch extending Ewrd over the Boston Mountains into Cntrl AR. Elsewhere, minimal rainfall, under one quarter inch, is expected, w/ a sharp cutoff to no accumulations towards SErn AR. Where rainfall and asctd thicker cloud cover does not occur, mainly the Srn half of the state, above normal to near record temperatures will persist again on Wed, while relatively cooler temps in the upper 80s wl be seen acrs NWrn to Nrn AR. Thurs thru Fri, a progressive shortwave trof is progged to quickly dig Swrd into the Midwest and Great Lakes region, w/ an asctd sfc pressure dipole quickly amplifying over the CONUS, e.g., strengthening cyclonic sfc flow moving NEwrd thru the Ohio River Valley w/ incrsg divergence aloft, and a strong trailing Continental Canadian high pressure system moving Swrd thru the Nrn to Cntrl PLains. Per the latest 00Z guidance, timing remains consistent w/ the cdfrnt moving into NWrn AR thru the overnight PD Thurs night, and quickly sweeping acrs the state Fri mrng to early aftn. Low chance PoPs wl persist along and ahead of the approaching frnt initially over NWrn AR thru Thurs night, but wl taper off quickly thru the day Fri as the cdfrnt pushes through, ushering in significantly drier air. With no appreciable precip expected, another bout of elevated to near critical wildfire danger will be seen acrs Ern to SErn AR Fri aftn as this frnt moves through. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph, and gusts of 25 to 35 mph are fcst, alongside min aftn RH values at or below 35 percent, and ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile. Concerning weekend low temperatures, morning lows in the low 40s, and isolated upper 30s remain possible acrs portions of Nrn AR Sat and particularly Sun mrngs, w/ latest NBM 25th percentile guidance only highlights some isolated regions in the upper 30s acrs Nrn AR on Sun mrng. Into early next week, aforementioned sfc high pressure wl begin to drift Ewrd, w/ Srly sfc flow resuming, and area temperatures trending upwards once again. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 600 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Some fog may be possible overnight...especially across the NRN terminals where rain fell. Further south...less rain fell...and fog will be more isolated. Additional convection will be possible late tonight into Thu...mainly across the far NRN sections. Most other locations should remain dry. Winds will begins switching back to thewest/NW late in the period as a front moves into the state. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 69 91 56 66 / 20 10 0 0 Camden AR 64 93 61 74 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 68 87 48 60 / 50 10 60 0 Hot Springs AR 68 91 58 69 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 70 92 62 70 / 10 0 0 0 Monticello AR 68 92 64 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 65 90 51 67 / 10 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 68 88 51 61 / 50 20 40 0 Newport AR 70 92 60 68 / 30 10 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 67 93 61 73 / 10 0 0 0 Russellville AR 70 92 55 67 / 10 10 10 0 Searcy AR 68 92 59 69 / 20 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 70 94 63 72 / 10 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...72 AVIATION...62  331 FXUS66 KMTR 142309 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 409 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1216 AM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Warming trend continues through the end of the work week with above normal temperatures peaking Friday - Coastal Flooding Advisory remains in effect through 4 PM today for bayshore locations along the San Pablo Bay - Elevated fire weather conditions due to moderate offshore flow and very dry conditions across the higher elevations mid to late week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 219 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 (This evening through Thursday night) Weak offshore flow today offers little to see on satellite with bright sunny skies area wide. Offshore ridging over the EPAC is helping to lift temperatures to near normal for most locations today. We're seeing breezy winds across higher elevations, that have peaked between 20-25 MPH so far this afternoon. We're not expecting winds to exceed those speeds for the remainder of the day. While we don't have a a FWW or RFW out, we are messaging elevated fire weather concerns across our area, especially where the gustiest winds are at higher elevation locations in the North Bay and East Bay Hills due to critically dry fuels today and through the remainder of the week. Expect another night of clear skies as offshore erodes any marine layer influence overnight. Radiational cooling with the clear skies will result in some cool spots in interior valley locations, while at higher elevations we'll see warmer spots from thermal belting above 1000ft. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 219 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 (Friday through next Tuesday) Elevated to near critical fire concerns continue through the remainder of the week into the beginning of the weekend on Saturday with similar warm, dry and windy conditions especially at higher elevations. The offshore flow, thermal belting and warmer daytime temperatures will result in continued poor overnight recovery and even worse daytime retention through Saturday across the interior. By Sunday, a notable pattern change will shift us back to widespread onshore flow, while a cold front drops temperatures considerably by Sunday afternoon into the beginning of next week. The trough associated with the pattern change will also bring increasing chances for scattered light rain beginning later Monday into Tuesday. The position of the upper level low dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska will determine where the most rain falls, currently focused primarily on the Central Coast with less than a 0.25" between late Monday and Wednesday expected at most. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 409 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Generally VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period, with some high resolution models depicting patchy coastal stratus developing tonight. Low confidence in model output that shows HAF getting fog and low stratus tonight. If it does happen, the most likely period for development would be 03-07Z before offshore winds mix out the lower layers. Gentle to moderate onshore winds will continue through the evening hours, with light winds overnight before a moderate offshore push in the interior Thursday morning, balanced by a gentle onshore flow developing in the afternoon. Vicinity of SFO... VFR at the terminal through the TAF period. Moderate northwest winds continue into the evening hours, with light winds overnight turning offshore Thursday morning before moderate northwest flow resumes in the afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... Moderate to high confidence of VFR through the TAF period. Gentle to moderate northwest winds persist into the evening hours, with light to gentle offshorewinds overnight before the moderate northwest flow resumes Thursday afternoon. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 409 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Seas will continue to subside through the night with moderate seas expected for the offshore zones through the week while nearshore waters observe moderate to slight seas. During this time frame gentle to fresh northerly breezes persist. Moderate to fresh northerly winds return for the weekend, which should lead to building seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 502 AM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected for the higher elevations late tonight through Friday morning. The main areas of concern will be for the North Bay Interior Mountains and East Bay Hills. The strongest winds look to be over the North Bay Interior Mountains where gusts 30-40 mph are possible, perhaps up to 45mph or higher for the highest elevations. The East Bay Hills will be breezy as well, but may be closer to 25-35 mph with locally higher gust for exposed ridges and areas of higher terrain. Both areas will be dry with poor overnight RH recovery, which combined with the breezy winds, warmer weather, and available fuels leads to the elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...DialH MARINE...JM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  689 FXUS62 KMFL 142312 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 712 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 710 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Moisture gradually returns to the region today, with the potential of a few showers south of Alligator Alley this afternoon. - The evolution of a frontal boundary will dictate our local weather this upcoming weekend. Confidence continues to increase for a forecast of windy and wet conditions for South Florida. && .UPDATE... Issued at 417 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 The forecast remains on track this afternoon as upper level ridging and surface high over the southeastern US become more established. The weakened remnants of the cold front that moved across our area over the weekend remain draped over the Florida Straits this afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis shows moisture and instability remain maximized along that boundary (PWATs up to 2 inches and CAPE 2500- 3500 J/kg), with a divergence signature showing up at the 300mb level, suggesting continued rising air motion. This could bring a few additional rounds of rainfall across the area this afternoon, with a secondary area of activity along the southwestern coastline thanks to the easterly wind regime. Ridging and high pressure will continue to build tomorrow, promoting continued easterly flow and a return to more summertime convective coverage across the region. Temperatures will remain in the low 90s today, dropping to the 70s overnight and back up to the low to mid 90s tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Another spectacular edition of fake fall is nearing a untimely conclusion across South Florida this morning as 07z mesoanalysis and GOES East water vapor imagery reveal that moisture is slowly retrograding back into the region as deep-layer ridging remains established to the north of our area. With an elongated mid-level ridge draped across much of the southeastern United States, the synoptic pattern across our region will remain rather benign. As a surface ridge axis gradually slides eastward across the southeastern United States and into the western Atlantic waters today, surface wind flow will begin to veer to more of an easterly direction as a frontolytic boundary over the Florida Keys and an envelope of residual atmospheric moisture retrogrades back into the region. Today still appears to be, very much so a transition day between the current dry airmass in place across South Florida this morning and more substantial moisture advection later in the week. Breezy east-northeasterly flow and increasing moisture will support the potential of afternoon shower activity south of Alligator Alley today, where the best instability and moisture will reside. Activity will remain vertically capped in nature as moisture advection remains confined the the lowest level of the boundary layer with a copious amount of dry air. The latest forecast continues to depict 20-40% rain chances across the southern half of the region this afternoon. Forecast high temperatures range from the upper 80s along the east coast to values in the low 90s across southwestern Florida. Mid-level ridging briefly established across the southeastern United States is forecast to propagate eastward on Thursday as the next lobe of troughing slides eastward across the central United States. For now at least, our weather regime here in South Florida will be primarily influenced by the surface ridge still situated over the western Atlantic waters. Surface winds will gradually veer to an easterly direction by Thursday afternoon as the axis of surface ridging across the southeastern United States pivots further eastward and wanes in strength. Consequently, the established pressure gradient will begin to subside with surface winds remaining light out of an easterly direction. This will focus the best afternoon and evening rain chances across the western half of the peninsula on Thursday. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms remain possible, although weak lapse rates and warm 500mb temperatures should keep the threat of strong convection to a minimum. High temperatures on Thursday will remain similar to today (upper 80s to low 90s, peak values forecast, however the increase in moisture will result in a return of apparent temperatures back into the 100-105F degree range during the late morning and early afternoon hours. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 417 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 While all eyes are on the southeasterly digging front that could likely impact the region over the weekend, we also need to look out for potential impacts that will precede the front on Friday. In the lower levels, moisture advection from the south-southwest at the 700 and 850mb levels will drive a shallow but moist airmass over the region. Dewpoints values with this airmass are near the 90th percentile for this time of year, and coupled with surface temperatures in the low 90s, feels-like temperatures will reach into the low 100s across the region. Light surface winds will set us up for a near typical diurnal-heating pattern on Friday, with precipitation focused over inland South Florida. The thick low- level moisture layer will be ripe for releasing pockets of heavy rainfall, with ensemble guidance pointing to a 20-30% chance of 1 inch of rainfall and pockets of 2-4 inches in some areas. The sea breeze along the eastern metro areas is forecast to keep the heaviest rainfall well inland as it progresses west, but a shower or two can not be ruled out over the metro areas. There is good agreement amongst the ensemble members that temperatures aloft on Friday are predicted to be warmer than average, which should keep the risk of severe thunderstorms at marginal levels. All of this together points to the main risks for Friday being heat related, with inland areas at risk for isolated pockets of heavy rainfall. Moving into the weekend, the speed of the propagating front will be a big player in the amount of rainfall that we may see over the weekend. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) cluster analysis shows that the majority of the variance can be described by two different scenarios based on the speed of the front. The first scenario, which is more favored by the American ensemble (GEFS), shows that a more quickly propagating front will increase the amount of rain cross South Florida compared to the grand ensemble. The second scenario is a more slowly propagating front which points towards a reduction in the amount of rainfall in our area compared to the grand ensemble. This second scenario is mostly favored by the European ensemble (ENS), while the Canadian ensemble (GEPS) is split between the two scenarios. More concrete rainfall totals for this event are still murky as the speed of the front is not yet fully resolved, but the WPC rainfall forecast is favoring higher totals (about 2-4 inches over the weekend) over the eastern metro area. We will be providing more information regarding impacts as the forecast becomes clearer so please stay tuned as we approach the weekend. Following the front, there is better agreement across the ensemble guidance that a steep pressure gradient will set up over the entire state of Florida, bringing with it a jump in easterly winds. The exact timing of the onset of winds here will be tied to the speed and direction of the high pressure system building behind the front which is not completely resolved yet. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 710 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 VFR conditions continue overnight, with light easterly winds prevailing. Chances of showers return early tomorrow morning along the East Coast sites, with an increasing chances for thunderstorms likely after 15Z. Breezy easterly flow will continue through the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Breezy northeasterly winds will prevail across the local waters of South Florida through tonight. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions could be realized at times across the Atlantic and Gulf waters as winds enhance and lessen with nocturnal/diurnal cycles. Waves will remain 2-3 feet across the region through early Thursday with the caveat that locally higher waves and winds are possible in and around any shower or thunderstorm activity, mainly across our southern waters. While uncertainty remains, forecast confidence continues to increase for the potential of elevated seas and waves across the local waters of South Florida this weekend into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 78 89 79 90 / 40 20 20 30 West Kendall 77 90 78 90 / 30 20 20 40 Opa-Locka 78 90 79 90 / 40 20 20 40 Homestead 78 90 78 90 / 40 20 20 30 Fort Lauderdale 78 88 79 89 / 40 20 20 40 N Ft Lauderdale 78 89 79 89 / 40 30 20 40 Pembroke Pines 78 89 78 90 / 40 20 20 40 West Palm Beach 78 89 78 89 / 20 50 30 50 Boca Raton 78 88 79 89 / 30 40 30 40 Naples 75 91 75 89 / 10 50 30 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hadi LONG TERM....AK AVIATION...ATV  795 FXUS64 KAMA 142314 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 614 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of the Panhandles for the rest of the day and into Thursday morning. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low at this time. Chances for flooding remain high across the southeastern TX Panhandle. - Lows ranging in the upper-20s to mid-30s are expected Friday night for the combined Panhandle. Frost and freeze products are likely. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the CWA this afternoon and this activity will continue through tonight. Flooding is still expected across our southeast with additional precipitation exacerbating previously flooded areas. Some locations in Collingsworth county have already received over 5" of rain, with favorable chances for an additional 2" tonight through Thursday morning. Other locations in the combined Panhandles are not expected to receive as much rain, but persistent thunderstorms will allow for isolated areas to receive over 1" of rain tonight. Still, flash flooding is less likely for the majority of the Panhandles due to scattered storm coverage and fast moving storms. The severe threat today will be limited to areas ahead of the currently stalled cold front. Elevated thunderstorms will be capable of producing hail, but if storms can become surface based, damaging wind chances also increase. The tornado threat is much lower across our area toady compared to yesterday, despite the high 0-1 km bulk shear and helicity across the CWA. Tornado chances may increase slightly if supercell production can be achieved along the stationary front. Tonight, rain chances will shift east into central Oklahoma alongside the upper level low. Low clouds and fog will likely be left in the wake of this system before we clear out late Thursday morning. Tomorrow, clouds will slowly clear out and wind speeds will increase sharply from the north. Highs may stay in the 60s with a few areas in the southern Texas Panhandle reaching the lower 70s. Strong winds behind the front will spread across the combined Panhandles with gusts up to 45 mph. Even 50 mph wind gusts are possible in our northwest zones, but chances are low to medium for now. Chances for 50 mph winds may increase with future forecast packages. Rangel && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Our cooling trend continues in the extended as our cold front is reinforced with strong, northerly winds across the FA on Friday. In the morning, lows may already bottom out in the upper 30s across the north, while the rest of the Texas Panhandle stays in the 40s. By Friday afternoon, highs will only reach the 50s area wide. Saturday morning, the NBM continues to trend cooler with some deterministic guidance already placing the whole CWA at or below freezing. Our current forecast suggests lows will drop to the upper 20s in our northern zones while the rest of the area ranges in the low to mid 30s. Freeze and frost products are being considered and will likely be needed. For the rest of the long term period, temperatures should recover back into the 70s for the beginning of next week. Precipitation chances should remain largely absent, however, long range model signals are alluding to another strong low pressure system developing in the western CONUS and we may receive the moisture necessary for precipitation chances to return by next Wednesday. Rangel && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 608 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 LIFR conditions prevail at all three TAF sites. Late overnight into tomorrow morning conditions are expected to improve to a brief period of MVFR before ultimately going into VFR at KAMA and KDHT through the morning. KGUY is expected to go to VFR in the early afternoon tomorrow. Winds expected to pick up throughout the day. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ010-014-015-019-020. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...52  793 FXUS65 KPIH 142314 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 514 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Potential for patchy dense fog for a few mornings now that we are clearing out cloud cover. - Late Week Ridge & Pleasant Next Weekend: High pressure ridging brings clearing skies and temperatures warming to seasonal norms by Thursday and Friday, setting up a much more pleasant weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1233 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Precipitation has finally come to an end across eastern Idaho. The area of low pressure that impacted us the last few days is over southeast Utah. This low continues to weaken and move eastward today with high pressure building in from the west over southeast Idaho. There are some lingering clouds across our eastern areas currently but most areas have cleared out. With high pressure, clear skies, and lingering moisture expect patchy fog tomorrow morning. Expect dry conditions through Monday with a gradual warming trend under high pressure. Winds will remain light through Sunday. For lower elevations, highs today will be in the 50s for most and we return to the low 60s for Friday afternoon. Expect mid 60s by Sunday and Monday. Overall, the models are showing a system starting to move into the area by early next Tuesday. Though, models continue to disagree on exact timing. Some models hold off the system until later next week. If models stay on the same track, expect winds to pick up by Monday afternoon. Currently models show good precipitation chances Tuesday and Wednesday. Currently, overall accumulation looks light to moderate, 0.10 to 0.25 for valleys and 0.25 to 0.5 for mountains. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 508 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Leftover CIGs from the previous days' storm will evaporate this evening with the continued eastward progression of that storm. No precipitation expected from these remmants. SKC should develop everywhere tonight, with the no-observations KDIJ and KPIH being the last at around 15/05Z. Weak pressure gradient allows downslope-downvalley wind to develop at KBYI, KPIH, and KIDA. KSUN also has its usual NNW wind for the overnight hours. KDIJ is the only question mark, but windspeeds never get more than 8KT. Light wind and unrestricted VSBY and sky condition continues well beyond the 16/00Z end time for the forecasts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1158 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 High pressure continues to build into East Idaho through the weekend. Dry conditions with a gradual warming trend are forecast. Afternoon highs look to increase back to the mid to lower to mid 60s by Sunday for most lower elevations. There is potential for the next system to arrive as early as Tuesday, bringing the next round of light rain and high elevation snow to East Idaho. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TW AVIATION...Messick FIRE WEATHER...DMH  951 FXUS61 KPHI 142317 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 717 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated aviation section for 0z TAFs. Updated/refreshed first key message. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A cold front will sink south through the region this evening yielding cooler weather for Thursday. 2. A strong cold frontal passage Friday evening will bring windy conditions, showers and potential for some thunderstorms, and colder temperatures into the weekend. 3. Widespread frost and freeze conditions are increasingly likely Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front will sink south through the region this evening yielding cooler weather for Thursday. Low pressure moving through the Canadian Maritimes will pull a cold front through the area this evening. After the front passes, cooler air will briefly return overnight tonight into Thursday. With skies clearing across northern areas overnight, lows in the 50s are expected for most areas, with 40s in the higher elevations. For southern areas, more in the way of cloud cover is expected to persist, which will keep overnight lows mostly in the 60s. For Thursday, much of the day is expected to be dry with a mix of sun and clouds. However, the front will begin to slowly work its way back north late in the day, so cannot rule out a few showers across the Delmarva as a result. Highs will be generally uniform in the low to mid 60s with onshore flow. KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold frontal passage Friday evening will bring windy conditions, showers and potential for some thunderstorms, and colder temperatures into the weekend. A sharp upper-level trough is forecast to arrive across the East Coast on Friday, then gradually lift out over the weekend. This will drive rapidly strengthening surface low pressure just north of our area Friday, with an associated strong cold front sweeping through. A consensus of guidance has slowed the passage of the front later in the day, most likely during the evening hours (4-8 PM), likely moving from our western most zones and offshore within about 3 hours or so. A warm and increasingly moist airmass ahead of this system will provide modest instability and decent boundary layer mixing as the strong cold front approaches on Friday. Large scale forcing for ascent will increase with the arrival of the robust upper- level trough and cold front. It appears there will be a round of showers and a few thunderstorms overnight Thursday night into early Friday morning associated with the warm advection surge aloft. There should then be a break in convection by midday prior to the cold front's arrival late in the day and into the evening. A line or broken line of showers and storms should develop along or just ahead of the front. Cannot rule out some severe thunderstorm potential, especially if any more robust convection can materialize along the cold front. While it will be mostly cloudy, strong warm advection will boost temperatures up well into the 70s and low 80s ahead of the front. As surface pressure falls rapidly amid a strengthening southwesterly gradient, breezy conditions will likely develop outside of any showers and storms with gusts of 20-30 mph possible. During and after cold frontal passage, strong cold air advection will occur as the sharp trough aloft sweeps through. However, the timing of this now looks to trail behind the front until sometime after midnight. This will support efficient mixing of winds aloft down toward the surface in the form of frequent wind gusts as temperatures plummet into the 50s then 40s overnight. Boundary layer winds could be as high as 40-50 mph for a few hours in the wake of the front, which could warrant a Wind Advisory. However, the threat of winds of this magnitude have lessened some given the later timing of the system. The timing of the peak winds now appears to be focused during the overnight hours and into Saturday morning, with gusts of 30-40 mph likely. The coldest airmass so far this season will settle into the area Saturday into Saturday night. High temperatures Saturday are only in the low to mid 50s in most areas (40s north of I-78). Breezy conditions will continue, with northwest winds gusting 30-40 mph possible in the morning before gradually diminishing later in the day. KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread frost and freeze conditions are increasingly likely Saturday night. As strong surface high pressure settles nearly overhead into Saturday night, temperatures will cool significantly with radiational cooling. This should result in widespread low temperatures in the 30s Saturday night into Sunday morning, and potentially into the upper 20s north of I-78. This will introduce our first widespread frost and freeze potential of the season. A freeze appears unlikely south of I-78, but the usual cold spots (including the Pine Barrens) could drop to near the freezing mark. Aside from the freeze potential, areas of frost are anticipated, especially across much of our NJ, PA, and northern DE areas. Delmarva could also get in on the frost threat. The airmass will start to modify Sunday and into early next week. Highs Sunday should rebound into the mid 50s to near 60 degrees in most areas with winds 5-10 mph making for a much more pleasant day compared to Saturday. There could be some frost potential Sunday night, but lows are likely to rebound into the upper 30s to low 40s in most areas. Temperatures will then rebound to near normal values, with highs well into the 60s early next week and dry weather expected. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...VFR. Northwest winds around 5-10 kt this evening will settle out of the north-northeast overnight. High confidence. Thursday...VFR. Mostly clear skies for much of the day, with increasing clouds late. Northeast winds around 5-10 kt in the morning, settle out of the east-southeast in the afternoon. High confidence. Outlook... Thursday night and Friday...Periods of restrictions probable during this period in showers and low ceilings. Potential for thunderstorms as well. Southwest winds Friday shifting northwest Friday evening with gusts up to 40 kts possible. Saturday through Monday...VFR. Northwest winds gusting up to 30 kts on Saturday. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Atlantic coastal waters from Cape May to Fenwick Island beginning at 5 AM Thursday. West-southwest winds around 10-15 kt will become northwest by later this evening. After midnight, a surge in north- northeast winds is expected around 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt possible, mainly across southern waters through Thursday morning. Northeast winds will then diminish to around 10-20 kt for the rest of Thursday. Seas of 3-4 feet. Aside for a slight chance of showers this evening, fair weather is expected outside of SCA areas. Outlook... Friday and Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions developing during the daytime Friday, then gale force winds possible Friday night into Saturday as a strong cold front pushes offshore Friday evening. Seas building over 5 feet. Heavy showers and a few thunderstorms will accompany the front as it pushes offshore Friday night, along with locally stronger winds and higher seas. A Gale Watch was issued for all Atlantic waters and Delaware Bay for Friday night through Saturday. Saturday night through Monday...Lingering SCA conditions early Saturday night. Otherwise, no marine hazards are anticipated. && .CLIMATE... Near record breaking high temperatures are forecast for today. Records for our climate stations are listed below: Record High Temperatures October 14 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 86/1975 AC Airport (ACY) 83/1990 AC Marina (55N) 84/1975 & 1990 Georgetown (GED) 87/1954 Mount Pocono (MPO) 79/1995 Philadelphia (PHL) 88/1975 Reading (RDG) 82/1920 Trenton (TTN) 86/1975 Wilmington (ILG) 87/1975 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for ANZ430-431-450>455-480>483-485. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 11 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ454-455. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/MJL/Staarmann AVIATION...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/Staarmann MARINE...DeSilva/Staarmann  950 FXUS63 KGRR 142317 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 717 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Deepening fall system to move through the Great Lakes - Mainly dry this weekend and into early next week - Cool temperatures this weekend then moderating some next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Deepening fall system to move through the Great Lakes Two distinct upper shortwave troughs can be seen this afternoon in satellite imagery, one over the Central Rockies and the other moving from the Canadian Rockies into the Canadian Prairies. Both of these shortwaves will move towards the Great Lakes and phase with one another as they approach from the west. Rain will spread in towards daybreak on Thursday. The most widespread rain will move Thursday afternoon and evening as the right entrance region of and upper jet moves overhead. A low level jet will impact southern portions of the state, towards I-94 especially. 850mb moisture transport is very strong Thursday evening into Thursday night. All areas will see rain with one half to one inch of rain likely. Cannot rule out some thunder as the cold front swings through, but the better instability will remain off to our south. Lake effect rain showers will combine with diurnal rain showers on Friday for another wet day. Delta T's will rise into the upper teens C which will result in MUCAPE values over the lake on the order of 600 j/kg. Feel waterspouts are a possibility Friday morning before the stronger winds move in during the afternoon. We are looking at gale force winds on Lake Michigan, but on the land we may not meet advisory criteria with wind gusts expected to be in the 30-40 mph range as of now. - Mainly dry this weekend and into early next week Ridging will take over for the weekend and early next week. We are looking at a dry forecast from Saturday all the way into Wednesday. BUFKIT profiles show a very dry atmosphere so there is fairly high confidence we remain dry Saturday-Wednesday. - Cool temperatures this weekend then moderating some next week We will cool into the 50s for highs this weekend as high pressure moves through the Great Lakes. Lows in the 30s are anticipated for Saturday morning and Sunday morning. We are likely looking at frost and freeze headlines at least on Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 717 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Chaotic ceilings are expected to start the forecast. Latest satellite and observational trends suggest a breakout to VFR for AZO/BTL/JXN near 00z, occuring a few hours later for the other terminals. Even with this, ceilings are expected to remain borderline VFR/MVFR, especially overnight once boundary layer cooling develops with cigs from 2.5-3.5 kft. Beginning late morning Thursday conditions then become solidly MVFR. Conditions deteriorate further Thursday afternoon and evening as a low pressure system brings showers/fog and low clouds to the area. Conditions are likely to deteriorate to IFR between 18z-21z and periods of LIFR are possible, though confidence is to low to include LIFR conditions at this time range (20-30 percent). Once conditions fall they will remain poor through the rest of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 A deepening fall system will move through the Great Lakes Thursday and Friday. North winds will increase behind the low starting Friday morning. We have a Gale Watch in place beginning at 11am Friday and lasting into Friday night. Winds are expected to reach 35 to 45 knots on the lake during the peak of the event Friday afternoon and evening. The winds will be running parallel down the shoreline, but waves will still be high reaching 10+ feet on Friday. The largest waves will be at the south end of the lake. When advisory/warning decisions are made we may need to have a Small Craft Advisory on the front end of what will likely be a Gale Warning. Waves will become hazardous to smaller craft in our area starting as early at 400am Friday. Southwest flow develops rapidly behind the departing system and we are will likely see large waves again Saturday evening into Sunday. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...Duke  872 FXUS64 KBRO 142315 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 615 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 110 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Breezy southeasterly winds result in above average temperatures today and tomorrow, with a moderate risk of heat-related illnesses (level 2/4) and heat indices of 105-110 F today improving to a minor risk (level 1/4) tomorrow. - A strong cold front arrives possibly Friday morning/afternoon, bringing strong northerly winds, much cooler temperatures, high risks of rip currents, elevated and dangerous surf as well as hazardous marine conditions and minor coastal flooding Friday evening into Saturday. - There is a low to medium (30-60%) chance of rain along/near the coast in association with the front on Friday and low to medium (20-40%) chances may return next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 110 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Aside from a very low (10-15%) chance of brief light streamer showers, troughing over the Rockies as well as high pressure aloft and southeasterly surface winds across deep south Texas otherwise maintain dry and somewhat breezy conditions today and tomorrow, gusting to as high as 25-30+ mph this afternoon. Above average temperatures continue as well, maximizing in the low/mid 90s along/east of US-281 and mid/upper 90s further west in the afternoon today and tomorrow while minimizing in the 70s overnight tonight and tomorrow night. Factoring in onshore Gulf moisture advection, heat indices of 105-110 F and a moderate risk of heat-related illnesses are anticipated this afternoon, dropping to a minor risk (level 1/4) tomorrow and Friday as subsidence aloft dries relative humidity values. Meanwhile, a strong upper level ridge arriving over the Northern and Central Plains tomorrow aids in deepening a trough over the Midwest and Great Lakes, pushing the attendant surface low pressure system's trailing cold front to the Southern Plains, passing through our region on Friday, possibly during the morning and afternoon hours, transitioning and enhancing winds to northerly with gusts to near 30- 35+ during the daytime. A secondary surge of high pressure Friday night is expected to result in a Wind Advisory Friday evening into Friday night or Saturday morning along/east US-281, where the NBM suggests a 50-80% probability of gusts exceeding 40 mph. According to the 90th percentile NBM probabilistic guidance, there is even the potential for a High Wind Watch/Warning across inland areas along/east US-281, where the higher end of gusts could reach to near 55+ mph. Additionally, showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms may accompany the front, increasing chances of rain Friday to as much as a low to medium (30-60%) chance for the lower RGV (highest along the coast) while areas along the international border have a low (15-30%) chance before gradually diminishing throughout Friday evening. Yet, the biggest impacts will reside along the Lower Texas coast and coastal waters, where strong winds are likely to result in elevated wave heights, life-threatening rip currents, hazardous marine conditions and minor coastal flooding. Northerly winds begin to weaken throughout Saturday morning and afternoon as dry weather resumes. On a sidenote, despite recent rains having improved the drought conditions across deep south Texas, dry and hot temperatures over the past couple of days and the ongoing drought could bring a bit of a wildfire spread concern along/behind the front as northerly winds usher in much drier air with crashing relative humidity values Friday afternoon into Saturday afternoon. Fire Danger Statements (RFDs) are possible for inland areas along/east US-281 during this period. Depending on the timing of the front's arrival, temperatures may still manage to reach into the upper 80s and low 90s, warmest across the RGV, on Friday. However, once the front passes through, moderate to strong cold air advection brought in by the breezy northerly winds could drop temperatures by nearly 15-20 degrees and into the 50s and 60s Friday night, perhaps even a bit cooler Saturday night, with temperatures only reaching into the mid/upper 70s on Saturday. Following, high pressure aloft returns to the region, leading to a gradual warming trend into the middle of next week, when low to medium (20-40%) chances of rain may return. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 611 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the cycle. Gusty southeasterly winds around 25 kts will continue just past sunset, decreasing to 5-10 kts overnight. Few to broken clouds between 025-050 will continue this evening, with occasional BKN layers passing over a field. Gusty winds to 20 kts may return at the tail end of the 06Z TAF cycle Thursday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 110 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are likely to continue into night as a result of a tightened pressure gradient leading to moderate to fresh southeasterly winds, while moderate (3-5 ft) seas persist as southeasterly winds improve to gentle to moderate throughout the day tomorrow, becoming easterly tomorrow afternoon/evening. A fairly strong cold front passes through Friday morning/afternoon, transitioning winds to northerly and quickly enhancing to near-gale with gale-force gusts, possibly by Friday evening, building seas to rough and/or very rough (10+ ft) late Friday night into Saturday. Thus, a Gale Watch is expected to be issued tomorrow or tomorrow night. Winds and seas may begin to improve throughout the later half of Saturday, followed by generally gentle to moderate northerly to northeasterly winds and moderate seas. Otherwise, chances of rain increase late tomorrow night to as much as a medium to likely (40-80%) chance Friday afternoon, with low to medium (20-50%) chances lingering across the southern Lower Texas coastal waters on Saturday. Low (15-30%) chances of rain could return early next week, increasing to low to medium (30-60%) chance by the middle part of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 76 90 74 88 / 0 0 10 30 HARLINGEN 73 93 71 89 / 0 0 10 20 MCALLEN 77 96 74 91 / 10 0 10 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 76 95 72 90 / 0 0 10 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 85 78 85 / 0 0 10 60 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 75 88 74 86 / 0 0 10 40 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...65 LONG TERM....65 AVIATION...69-HK  934 FXUS64 KLIX 142316 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 616 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 608 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through Friday, with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. Areas of fog, potentially dense at times, will be possible again Thursday morning. - A strong cold front will move through late Friday and Friday night, bringing much cooler and drier conditions of the weekend. Strong northerly winds behind the front will lead to hazardous marine conditions, with gale conditions possible. - Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible Saturday as gusty northeasterly winds combine with min RH values in the upper 20s and low 30s across the area. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Saturday) Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 The main focus in the short term will be the unseasonably warm and dry conditions through Friday before a fairly strong cold front brings our first real taste of fall this weekend. In the meantime, upper-level ridging will continue to influence the area and keep most of the precipitation away. Starting with today, the fog that developed overnight has essentially all lifted this afternoon as daytime heating broke down the shallow inversion at the surface. With plenty of sunshine and the continued influence of the ridge, temperatures will once again climb into the upper 80s and low 90s across much of the area. One thing to note is the rather dry air that had been sitting atop the shallow moist layer this morning. As the boundary-layer mixing get going this afternoon, some of that drier air should be able to mix down to the surface and lower dew points. Therefore, dew points were bumped down slightly from the NBM this afternoon to account for the expected mixing. This will bring min RH values into the 30s across much of the area, with some locations potentially getting lower. Thankfully, winds will remain light enough to limit the overall fire weather concerns despite the dry conditions. Tonight into Thursday morning, fog becomes another concern as the shallow low-level moisture remains in place. The main question will be how efficiently the boundary layer can cool and whether winds remain light enough for fog to be dense. There will be a very dry layer above the inversion, so even a slight increase in mixing could prevent widespread dense fog from developing. However, given the moisture near the surface and the expected overnight cooling, at least some areas of fog seem likely again, with locally dense fog possible. The greatest visibility restrictions should be around sunrise before improving through the morning. Thursday will be very similar to today as the ridge remains in control. Expect another day of mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s across the area. The immediate coastal areas should remain slightly cooler due to the marine influence. Rain chances will remain near zero for most of the area thanks to the continued subsidence and lack of sufficient moisture and forcing. Things start to change on Friday as a trough progressing across the central CONUS begins breaking down the ridge overhead and pushes a cold front toward the area. The main forecasting challenge will be the exact timing of the front. If it manages to move through earlier on Friday, particularly across southwest MS and the northern Florida Parishes, afternoon temperatures could be a few degrees cooler than currently forecast. However, if the front holds off until later in the day, we could squeeze out one more rather warm afternoon with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. For now, confidence is higher in the overall frontal passage than the exact timing across the CWA. Precipitation chances remain quite limited with this front as sufficient deep-layer moisture and forcing look to remain displaced from much of the inland area. There could be some showers closer to the coast and offshore, but widespread rainfall is not expected. The cold front should make its way through the area late Friday and Friday night, bringing a much drier and cooler airmass into the region. Looking at the short-range guidance, they generally agree in an increase in northerly flow across the northern Gulf behind the front, although there is some differences in the placement and magnitude of the strongest winds. The tightening pressure gradient between the departing front and building surface high will support gusty winds, especially areas south of Lake Pontchartrain and over the marine areas. Because of this, winds were bumped up slightly from the NBM behind the front to better account expected gradient and post-frontal mixing. Small craft Advisories will likely be needed, and some of the offshore waters could approach gale conditions. By Saturday, the cooler and drier air will have taken over the entire area. Highs should only reach the low to mid 70s for most locations, which will be roughly 10-15 degrees cooler than what we have been experiencing. Another thing to note is how much the dew points should drop behind this front. The strong northerly flow will advect a much drier continental airmass into the area, and daytime mixing should help bring some of that dry air to the surface. Therefore, dew points were lowered from NBM again on Saturday, especially along and north of I-10/12, to account for the expected dry-air advection and mixing. This brings min RH values down to the upper 20s and lower 30s for portions of southwest MS and the Florida Parishes. Unlike today, however, winds will also be elevated behind the front, so fire weather concerns will need to be monitored closely, especially where the lowest RH values overlap with the stronger winds. Otherwise, expect a mostly sunny and much more comfortable Saturday across the area. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 The previously mentioned cold front will have cleared the area by Saturday night, leaving a much cooler and drier airmass in place. Surface high pressure will continue building towards the region while ridging aloft keeps conditions dry and stable through Sunday. The main forecast challenge Saturday night into Sunday morning will be how efficiently temperatures can cool behind the front. With the much drier airmass in place and mostly clear skies expected, radiational cooling should become fairly efficient, particularly across the interior areas and the typical drainage areas. Although winds will be somewhat elevated closer to the coast and lakes, they should begin relaxing farther inland as the surface high builds closer to the area. Therefore, minimum temperatures were bumped down slightly from the NBM Sunday morning to account for the expected cooling. The coolest temperatures should be across southwest MS, the northern Florida Parishes, and the Pearl River drainage areas, while locations south of the lake and along the immediate coast due to the marine influence and slightly stronger winds. The biggest question will be how quickly the pressure gradient relaxes overnight, as any persistent mixing could keep temperatures from falling quite as much. Sunday should be a fairly pleasant day as the drier airmass and ample sunshine allow temperatures to rebound into the upper 70s and low 80s. With the high pressure still influencing the area, expect little to no precipitation for most inland locations. As we head into Sunday night, the surface high begins shifting further east, allowing more southeasterly flow to return and gradually increasing low-level moisture. This should also bring minimum temperatures back up closer to normal. As we get into Monday and Tuesday, model guidance starts to diverge on how the upper-level pattern evolves. Some guidance favors a more amplified ridge remaining over the southeastern CONUS, which would keep the area predominantly dry while temperatures gradually warm back above normal. On the other hand, some guidance is more progressive with the ridge and brings a shortwave trough through the lower MS Valley. This would provide better forcing and allow some precipitation chances to return,mainly along and south of I-10 where the better moisture should reside. With these differences in the guidance, decided to stay with the NBM for the remainder of the long term period. This keeps temperatures gradually warming into the mid to upper 80s by Tuesday, with low-end rain chances returning to portions of the area. Confidence is lower than average for early next week given the differences in the upper-level pattern, so we'll have to see which solution the guidance trends towards in the coming days. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 608 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist through the forecast period for all area airports. There will be a brief drop to IFR and LIFR conditions around daybreak at all area airports due to fog and low visibilities. MSW && .MARINE... Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 High pressure will keep winds relatively calm through Thursday. A strong cold front will move through late Friday and Friday night, bringing strong northerly winds and rapid building seas. Small craft Advisory conditions are likely through the weekend, with gale conditions possible across portions of the offshore waters on late Friday into Saturday. Winds will gradually turn easterly Sunday but remain elevated into early next week. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MSW LONG TERM....MSW AVIATION...MSW MARINE...MSW  928 FXUS64 KMRX 142316 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 716 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 714 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Unusually warm for October and mostly dry through Thursday. - A few showers possible north tonight/Thursday, with more showers around Friday/Friday night. - Frost is possible Saturday night, and to a lesser extent on Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 118 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 We remain under the influence of the large upper ridge parked over the southeastern US, which is sponsoring the dry and anomalously hot October days we are currently experiencing. Temperatures will be approaching, or in some cases likely exceeding, daily record highs both today and Thursday. Record highs today and Thursday: Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 10-14 87(1954) 87(1881) 85(1954) 85(1954) 10-15 85(1950) 87(1897) 83(1971) 83(2021) A weak cold front will sag southward toward our northern areas as weak mid/upper level short wave energy skirts by to our north tonight and Thursday, but the front will likely stall to our north and then retreat north. We may see a few showers mainly north tonight and Thursday closer to the front. Ensemble data shows very limited CAPE, so chances for any thunder look quite low. An upper trough digging in out of Canada will push a much stronger cold front through our area Friday. This front will not bring much in the way of rainfall totals as moisture looks limited and shallow, but we will see mostly light showers especially north and mountains Friday afternoon and Friday night, with a few light showers possibly lingering into Saturday morning. Winds will be gusty Friday from the southwest becoming west and northwest later in the day. Surface high pressure will build in along with colder and drier air for the weekend. This colder airmass will bring night time temperatures into the range where frost may occur especially across our northern areas. Right now the best chance for widespread frost looks to be Saturday night across the northern half of our area, and a few outlying valley areas across our southern half could see patchy frost as well. Frost potential for Sunday night looks lower, but patchy frost may occur again especially north. After a cool day Saturday with well below normal high temperatures, we will see a warming trend through next Wednesday with dry conditions continuing. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 714 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 VFR conditions are forecast throughout the period. One caveat is the potential for fog toward sunrise, but the probability of it impacting any site looks too low to include at this time. Scattered to broken high clouds throughout. Winds will generally be light overnight. Wind direction with be southwesterly Thursday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 89 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 87 65 82 / 0 10 0 30 Oak Ridge, TN 63 86 63 82 / 10 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 84 61 80 / 10 10 0 40 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...BH  915 FXUS66 KOTX 142316 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 416 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions and light winds continue through Friday. - Temperatures trend warmer over the next few days, peaking on Friday in the upper 60s to mid 70s. - Mountain shower chances, gusty westerly winds, and cooler temperatures return for the weekend. && .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions and light winds remain in the forecast through the end of the workweek with a ridge of high pressure positioned over the region. Temperatures trend warmer each day, peaking in the upper 60s to mid 70s on Friday. Active weather returns over the weekend and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Friday: high pressure amplifies over the region. This will steer most of the moisture north around the region, with some periods higher clouds spreading over the northern to northeast CWA Thursday and then a few more clouds develop in advance of next system. Aside from some afternoon breeziness around the Upper Columbia Basin, with gusts near 15 mph, winds will be light. High temperatures trend to the mid-60s and mid-70s, with lows in the 30s and 40s. Saturday: A mostly dry cold front moves through the area, with a westerly flow and limited moisture. Clouds will thicken over the region starting Friday night into Saturday morning. Rain chances come to the Cascades, with the best chances over the crest; but at least a slight chances extends as far east as Leavenworth and the Upper Methow Valley. Snow levels will be high enough to mean mainly minor snow potential across the higher mountains. Winds increase throughout the region coming out of the west to southwest in the late morning and afternoon. Speeds of 10-20 mph are forecast, with gusts of 25-35 mph except in the more sheltered valleys. Per the NBM, the probability of peak wind gusts of 30 mph or greater from the West Plains to the Wateville Plateau and around the4 Blues to Palouse is around 70-80%, with a 20-60% chance of 40 mph gusts, with the highest probability for that around the Waterville Plateau, Upper Columbia Basin and near the Blue Mountains. Impacts such as travel difficulties, especially for high-profile vehicles, blowing dust are possible. Winds start to subside in the late afternoon to evening. Morning lows will be in the upper 30s through 40s and highs will be in the 60s to low 70s. Sunday to Wednesday: the Inland NW will be in a more progressive pattern, with a cycles of weak shortwave ridges and shortwave troughs. In this quick pattern, sometimes models don't handle the details. However look for dry weather Sunday, then some low precipitation chances developing Monday to Wednesday. The best chances will in the mountains, with late Monday the best chance at the present moment over the east third of WA and lower elevations of ID. Either way precipitation amounts look light. The chance of 0.10 inches of rain are only around 10-15% in the mountains. Snow levels average near 5-7kft. Exceptions will be near the Cascades Sunday with snow levels near 4-4.5kft and around Tuesday when they will be near 4.5kft. Overall any snow would be in the higher mountains. Temperature trend cooler, with highs in the mid-50s to lower 60s and lows in the 30s, with some upper 20s possible in the sheltered valleys and outlying areas. /Solveig && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with just a few passing high clouds through 00z Friday. Strengthening high pressure in the lee of the Rockies in NW Montana will lead to increasing easterly flow into Thursday morning, starting the earliest at KPUW prior to 12z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions through 00Z Friday for all TAF sites. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 37 65 38 70 44 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 37 65 38 68 43 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 37 65 41 69 44 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 40 67 42 73 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 33 66 33 68 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 34 62 35 65 39 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 37 64 38 69 42 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 37 71 38 70 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 47 69 46 68 50 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 41 69 41 67 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$  013 FXUS62 KGSP 142319 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 719 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated the aviation discussion for the 00z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Near record high temperatures linger through Friday before a strong cold front crosses the region Friday afternoon/evening. Gusty winds are expected across the higher elevations along and behind the front, but confidence in Advisory level wind gusts is low. 2. Behind the cold front, temperatures will drop below normal through the weekend. Low temperatures across the mountains will be cold enough for frost and could drop below freezing in some places early Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Near record high temperatures linger through Friday before a strong cold front crosses the region Friday afternoon/evening. Gusty winds are expected across the higher elevations along and behind the front, but confidence in Advisory level wind gusts is low. An anticyclone and associated ridge will remain over the East through Thursday before progressing over the western Atlantic, as an area of strong height falls dives from the northern Great Plains Thu afternoon to the Appalachians by the end of Friday. Attendant strong cold front is forecast to move into the western part of our CWA by late Fri afternoon, then quickly sweep across the area through the evening. In the interim, very warm/near-record high temperatures are expected to continue ahead of the front, with temperatures mainly in the mid/upper 80s expected across the lower elevations Thu and Fri. Gusty SW winds will develop ahead of the front Fri afternoon across the high elevations and portions of the Piedmont. With the anticyclone in place ahead of the front, moisture return will be minimal, and in fact, there is expected to be more moisture on the cool side of the front than in the warm sector. Therefore, PoPs for our area are expected to be maximized within developing NW/upslope flow/cold advection regime across the NC mountains Fri evening, especially for the counties bordering TN. A brief period of flurries or rime icing is possible above ~5000' before the moisture depletes Saturday morning. Otherwise, gusty NW winds will develop across the area Friday evening, continuing through Saturday morning before tapering off during the afternoon. The forecast surface gradient will be marginally supportive of Wind Advisory-level gusts, but these are most likely to remain confined to the higher peaks and ridge tops. Key message 2: Behind the cold front, temperatures will drop below normal through the weekend. Low temperatures across the mountains will be cold enough for frost and could drop below freezing in some places early Sunday morning. The strong cold front is expected to bring in the first true autumn continental air mass for the weekend into early next week, with temperatures forecast to be at least 10 degrees below climo from Saturday through Monday, with temps Saturday afternoon forecast to be as much as 25 degrees cooler than Friday. An advective freeze is possible across portions of the mountains Saturday morning, but should be largely confined to the higher elevations. The larger concern for widespread frosty/localized freezing temperatures will be Sat night and again Sunday night as the center of the surface high pressure and associated ridge settle over the Appalachians and vicinity. While a widespread mountain frost appears to be the most likely scenario, there's at least a good chance that some of the high valleys of the northern NC mountains, as well as some of the more sheltered areas across the TN border counties will see their first freeze of the season on one of these nights. There will also be some potential for areas of frost to develop along the I-40 corridor outside the mtns, particularly across the northwest Piedmont, but confidence is low at this juncture. As heights begin to rise and the surface ridge gradually weakens over the Eastern Seaboard, temperatures begin to moderate, but remain below normal Monday/Mon night, further warming to right around climo by the middle of next week. Conditions will remain dry/precip free as the air mass remains seasonably dry. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect the dry, VFR conditions to continue thru the 00z TAF period. The only exception is at KAVL, where there is a decent chance that fog/low stratus will reach the terminal overnight/into the morning. Restrictions at KAVL are by no means guaranteed, but the probability appears high enough to advertise prevailing MVFR visby with a TEMPO for IFR visby from 10 to 13z. I cannot rule out restrictions developing at other TAF sites, especially those near lakes (ie, KAND and KHKY) but confidence is too low to include restrictions at this time. Otherwise, winds should remain light and VRB to calm thru the morning. They will pick up again from the S to SW tomorrow aftn with speeds around 5 kts. Outlook: Mainly dry, VFR conditions are expected to continue thru early next week, outside of the potential for mtn valley fog and low stratus each morning thru Friday. A robust cold front could bring sct showers and associated restrictions to the mtns Friday aftn and evening. Gusty winds are expected ahead of the front on Friday and behind the front Friday night/Saturday. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS FOR 10-14 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 82 1928 51 1907 64 1954 25 1988 KCLT 87 2021 56 1922 68 1883 32 2006 1940 1881 KGSP 86 1985 57 1907 67 1954 30 1988 1928 RECORDS FOR 10-15 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 86 1897 52 2002 60 2017 27 1907 1970 1928 KCLT 88 1985 53 2009 66 1985 30 2006 KGSP 86 1985 53 2002 65 1985 31 1907 1941 1970 RECORDS FOR 10-16 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 87 1897 49 1954 63 1928 29 1939 KCLT 87 1925 58 1937 68 1947 35 1939 1925 KGSP 85 1935 53 1937 67 1925 32 1907 1911 1892 && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ JDL/JPT  974 FXUS62 KILM 142318 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 718 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Guidance showing increasing potential for some spotty showers with the passing cold front on Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dry forecast dominates through Friday, with temperatures nearing record highs each day. - 2) Most significant cooldown of the season so far expected this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry forecast dominates through Friday, with temperatures nearing record highs each day. Latest surface analysis shows an elongated surface high that stretches from the Gulf coast through the coastal Carolinas. This surface ridge is associated with the upper ridge that's tucked slightly more to the west along the Gulf coast from TX to the FL panhandle. This ridge will continue to push northward and elongate from ArkLaMiss into the Carolinas today, and then into the western Atlantic by Thursday. Upper heights and thicknesses soar, allowing for widespread subsidence, which keeps the forecast dry. 500 mb heights hang around 592-594 dam, which easily rank in climatological maximums in this area, per SPC Sounding Climatology along KCHS, KMHX, and KHAT. This means very unseasonably warm temperatures that look a lot more like mid- to-late June than mid-October. Widespread highs in the upper 80s inland and mid 80s at the coast expected today through Friday. Record-tying or record-breaking high temperatures are in play here. Please see Climate section below for the possible record highs. KEY MESSAGE 2...Most significant cooldown of the season so far expected this weekend. Trade in the shorts and sweat towels for flannel and boots, for the famous fall cold front is coming. A trough out of Alberta and Saskatchewan amplifies by the time it enters the upper Midwest Thursday, meeting up with an upper low that ejects out of the Four Corners region. This trough continues to deepen as it sweeps through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region by Friday. The jet streak bottoms out near the NC/SC border as it sweeps through Friday night, sending the heat ridge offshore for good, and sweeping a cold front through the area. Interesting change with that jet streak, as data showed it bottoming out along the NC/VA border 24 hours ago. Bringing that streak's trough axis into the forecast area gives a lot more energy and forcing aloft to work with. Overall, guidance continues to show an overall lack of moisture with this front, but chc of pcp has been added to northern and eastern portion of forecast area Sat morning with some shwrs possible before the extremely dry air makes it into the area by Sat evening. Dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 overnight Fri night will drop out through Sat down into the 50s and even some 40s by late Sat. This drying trend will continue through Sat night with gusty northerly winds allowing dewpoints to bottom out early Sun in the 30s to around 40 close to the coast. Plenty of CAA will bring temps down quite a few degrees below normal Sat into Sun. Temps Sat aftn will resemble overnight temps just 12 hrs before, but the stiff northerly winds will make it feel even cooler. Expect overnight lows Sat night in the 40s inland to near 50 at the coast. Overall, fall-like weather will arrive Sat with a gradual warming through early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions should continue over the coming 24 hours. The only possible issue is a low risk of MVFR visibility in ground fog late tonight (after 06z) at KCRE. Extended Outlook...VFR conditions should dominate. Northerly winds behind a cold front Friday night could gust over 30 knots through the day Saturday. There is decreasing confidence in ceiling heights Saturday through Sunday asthe ECMWF is now showing low pressure development a short distance offshore. This is considered a low potential for now, but will need to be watched closely as the ECMWF solution would bring MVFR to IFR ceilings to some coastal sections of North and South Carolina. && .MARINE... Through Sunday...Benign winds and seas through at least Friday morning. Gentle SW breeze continues, remaining that way through Friday morning. Seas linger at 1-2 ft under a dry forecast. Pattern starts to change throughout the day Friday, as gradient winds increase significantly ahead of a cold front. Moderate breeze builds in by midday Friday, becoming a fresh to strong breeze by the evening. Front moves through overnight Friday night, allowing the winds to quickly veer to the N, gradually veering even more to the NE throughout the day Saturday through Sunday. Seas will ramp up in increasing winds ahead of the front and will peak Saturday night into Sunday morning, ranging from 4-6 ft over the coastal waters out 20 nm, to 6-10 ft over the offshore waters out 60 nm. Small Craft Advisory conditions appear to be a slam dunk Friday night through Sunday. Certainly cannot rule out gale conditions, particularly over the offshore waters 20-60 nm out. && .CLIMATE... Today's temperature in Florence, SC reached 89, breaking the old record of 88 from 2021. In Lumberton, today's temperature reached 91 degrees, tying the old record from 1928. Current forecast vs. records: Thursday, October 15: - Wilmington, NC (KILM): 88F (88F in 1985) - North Myrtle Beach, SC (KCRE): 84F (85F in 2008) - Florence, SC (KFLO): 89F (89F in 2021 and 1985) - Lumberton, NC (KLBT): 89F (91F in 1919) Friday, October 16: - Wilmington, NC (KILM): 87F (87F in 2021, 2018, and 1975) - North Myrtle Beach, SC (KCRE): 83F (88F in 1990) - Florence, SC (KFLO): 88F (91F in 2021) - Lumberton, NC (KLBT): 88F (92F in 1925) && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...RGZ KEY MESSAGES...RGZ/IGB DISCUSSION...RGZ/IGB AVIATION...TRA MARINE...RGZ/IGB  214 FXUS61 KPBZ 142322 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 722 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Spatial coverage of showers and storms Wednesday afternoon has shifted a bit farther north. Timing of cold front passage Friday has slowed a bit. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) First of two cold fronts this week sweeps through on Wednesday. 2) Stronger late-week cold front returns showers, gusty wind, and temperatures more like that of mid-November. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A slow moving cold front finally gets a kick and moves through our area north to south this afternoon showers and a few storms. Some storms could get a bit on the stronger side, but the primary limiting factor to that will be a displaced instability axis from the highest shear. The belt of strongest mid-level flow, and thus deep layer shear, will be in the northern half of our area. The best opportunity for heating and better instability will be in the southern half of our area in the thinner cloud cover out ahead of the front. REFS joint probability for >500 J/kg of SBCAPE and >30 knots of shear to capture the best overlap of parameters has shifted a bit farther northwest in several iterations of runs with around 60- 90% from eastern OH, through far southwestern PA, and into northern WV. A handful of recent HRRR and RRFS MPAS runs favor a slightly slower moving front and thus storms firing a bit farther north, which is falling more in line with the REFS shift, so this could be a trend to note through the day today. So, this will be the area to watch for storms to get more feisty and bring a low-end damaging wind threat coincident with SPC's Marginal Risk. Hail seems less likely with thinner CAPE profiles within the hail growth zone and a too shallow equilibrium level capping updrafts before they can maximize on hail growth. With lacking low level lapse rates progged by the latest RAP, we'd likely need to see the deep layer shear organize and congeal the storms into clusters to capitalize on the wind threat. Can't entirely rule out some flash flood concern which would be a bit more concerning if storms do fire farther north and impact southwestern Pennsylvania where two rounds of storms already went through earlier in the morning and preconditioned the ground, but that's still favored in southern OH and northern WV. KEY MESSAGE 2... The most impactful system arrives on Friday ushering in strong wind gusts, well below normal temperatures, and showers. While some uncertainty remains among ensembles primarily owing to timing and, to a lesser extent, depth of the mid-level trough, confidence in all three impacts remains high. Deep surface low pressure will pull a cold front through the area on Friday with a tight pressure gradient, 10+ dam 500 mb height falls in 12 hours, and strong low- level cold advection. For the wind threat, the combination of the tight gradient and mixing into a 40-45 knot low level jet should result in widespread gusts of 35-45 mph. They'll be stronger across our higher elevation remains up to ~60%. The already low probability of Advisory criteria in the lowlands has decreased a bit to only around 20-40%, so while still not likely, not entirely out of the question either. Eastern Tucker County runs an elevated probability for High Wind Warning criteria gusts >58 mph also up to ~60%. Wind headlines for the ridges will likely come into consideration within the next 24-36 hours. Strong cold advection in post-frontal northwest flow will bottom out ensemble mean 850 mb temperatures to around -2 to -4C. An unseasonably cold air mass will settle in for the first half of the weekend providing the potential for two nights of frost and freeze. Friday night, it looks like a freeze or bust as windwill remain elevated in the post-frontal regime. So, while probabilities for <36F lows are high, especially outside of urban areas, not too concerned about widespread frost. Probs for <32F (and an unconditional freeze) sneak up to 40-50% along and north of I-80, so that'll be the area to worry about on Friday night. Saturday daytime highs will feel more like those of mid to late November only warming to near 50 degrees with 40s in the elevation. The gradient will relax some Sunday night allowing wind to slacken and skies will clear. This should point toward Saturday night being the coldest areawide, and possibly the first shot for the Pittsburgh climate site to dip to 32F or lower since May 2nd. With better radiational cooling conditions amid a dry, cold airmass, the dew point could essentially be the floor for lows, and this suggests widespread low to mid 30s and upper 20s. A widespread frost is likely. Probability for a freeze ranges from 40-80% in eastern OH, northern WV, and western PA, with the highest values away from urban areas and in the higher elevation. Expect that we'll be looking at some combination of frost/freeze headlines on top of wind headlines as well. Two rounds of precip are possible both along the front itself and then in the wrap around cold advection across the lakes on Saturday. Strong flow amid the dynamic system could drive some "power showers" accompanying FROPA on Friday bringing enhanced gusts with them provided they're able to get tall enough to tap into the 40-50 knots a few thousand feet off the ground. This will be dependent on the timing of the front has fluctuated between early morning and early afternoon. Earlier would pose less potential for strong gusts accompanying the showers, later would pose more. It wouldn't require a whole lot of depth to the unstable layer to get things mixed down, so will certainly require monitoring. Then, continued cold advection in northwest flow likely results in some lake effect and upslope precip late Friday into early Saturday. For most, this will be a cool, windy scattered rain/graupel shower setup. For some, the first novelty snowflakes of the season aren't out of the question. Ground temperatures will be too warm to see it stick, and there's some question to the remaining depth of the moisture and whether or not it's deep enough to generate snowflakes or sits in the favored supercooled liquid region. Ensemble 850 mb temperatures suggest the coldest to the north and east with a colder outlier extending farther west. So the most favored area to see some white stuff falling should be the highest elevations of PA and WV and the far reaches of our northern tier of counties, unless the outlier solution comes to fruition and colder air filters in farther west. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The frontal boundary continues to sink southward and has recently passed HLG and LBE, where northerly gusts have picked up. The progress of the front is expected to slow some overnight. Behind the front, MVFR ceilings continue to drop from north to south. Past midnight, rain coverage will drop off, but ceilings may begin to rise. Models continue to highlight rises back into low end VFR (outside of MGW/FKL/DUJ) with approaching dry air. Ceilings look to be on their way back down to MVFR from south to north tomorrow as the front begins to advance back north as a warm front after sunrise on Thursday. Rain chances through 00Z remain low and preclude mention. Increasing shower coverage is possible after 00Z with increasing warm advection. Outlook... The warm front should return shower and possible thunderstorm chances later in the day through Thursday night, along with continued ceiling restrictions. A strong cold front is expected to cross the region from W-E Friday,with showers and W-NW wind gusts from 30-40kt. Gusts from 40-45 kt are possible across the higher terrain. VFR should return Saturday and Sunday as wind diminishes under building high pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MLB AVIATION...CL/AK  198 FXUS63 KDLH 142321 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 621 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances return tomorrow, with Wisconsin expected to get between a tenth and quarter inch. Winds and gales are expected with this system. - Dry, warm conditions return on Saturday into early next week. - Next chance for precipitation will be mid to next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 For the rest of this afternoon, lingering stratus clouds will slowly scatter across the Northland, leaving behind calm and quiet conditions. Cloud cover will increase again tonight across the area. Opted to increase low temperatures for tonight compared to guidance due to higher cloud cover limiting heat release overnight, with readings staying in the lower to mid 30s rather than dipping into the 20s. An upper-level cutoff low over the Four Corners will phase into an incoming trough from the Canadian Prairies on Thursday, leading to a surface low moving across Wisconsin into the Great Lakes. Rainfall will develop along a frontogenesis band Thursday morning and spread across the area through the afternoon. Rain chances will be highest across northwest Wisconsin, where a tenth to a quarter inch of rain is expected. Low temperatures in the mid 30s are also anticipated for tomorrow night due to higher cloud cover. A large trough will bring rain chances and cool air close behind for the late week. Precipitation along and wrap around precipitation behind the front will keep rain chances going for Thursday night into Friday morning. There is no snow currently in the latest forecast for early Friday morning, but a few flakes falling with light rain is still possible across the Arrowhead and south shore. Strong northwest winds will surge behind the boundary late Thursday night into Friday, gusting 25 to 35 mph across the Northland, with gusts up to 45 mph near Lake Superior before diminishing Friday afternoon. High pressure builds across the Upper Midwest Friday night into Saturday, setting the stage for very dry air to overspread the region. Forecasters are still looking at relative humidity as low as 25 percent for Saturday. Winds are expected to increase in the afternoon, but timing will depend on the speed of a warm front moving through. The combination of gusty southwest winds reaching 20 to 30 mph and the dry air mass could lead to near-critical to critical fire weather conditions on Saturday. An upper-level shortwave will pass north of the international border on Sunday, dragging a mostly dry cold front through our region with passing clouds. Heading into early next week, upper-level ridging will become the predominant pattern driver across the Great Lakes. This will maintain dry, mostly clear, and mild conditions through Monday and Tuesday. While a couple of weak shortwaves may attempt to bring a stray shower next week, dry weather is favored to dominate. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Widespread MVFR stratus continues to hold firm to most of the Northland with some pockets of VFR. Ceilings may briefly improve across the region overnight, but an approaching system from the southwest will bring another round of lowered ceilings for tomorrow morning. Current trajectory of the system will bring widespread rainfall through NW WI with scattered showers on the outskirts of the the system. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Light winds and waves around 1 foot will prevail through tonight before winds turn southwesterly Thursday. A cold front crossing the lake Thursday night into Friday brings a sharp wind switch to the northwest with gales to around 40 knots.Waves will build to 4 to 6 feet, occasionally reaching 8 feet, with outer Apostle Islands waves reaching 5 to 8 feet and occasionally 10 feet. A Gale Watch is in effect for all nearshore zones from late Thursday night through Friday morning. Winds diminish Friday evening, but strong southwest winds will increase again on Saturday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Calm and moist conditions will persist through Thursday as rain chances spread across the area. After the cold front passes, northwest winds will strengthen Friday morning, ushering in drier air with minimum afternoon relative humidity between 30 and 40 percent and gusts of 15 to 20 mph. Fire weather concerns peak on Saturday as afternoon relative humidity drops to 25 to 35 percent and southwest winds gust 20 to 30 mph. Wind timing will depend on the speed of a warm front moving through on Saturday. Afterwards, mild, dry weather continues into next week. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from late Thursday night through Friday afternoon for LSZ121-140>148-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...KML AVIATION...Britt MARINE...KML FIRE WEATHER...KML  266 FXUS64 KHUN 142323 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 623 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1027 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Above normal temperatures are forecast through Thursday, with more Fall-like weather expected by the weekend. - Minor to Moderate (Level 2/4) heat impacts may be observed today and Thursday across portions of the Tennessee Valley. && .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 We have hit record breaking temperatures this afternoon as both HSV and MSL currently sit at 91 degrees under mostly sunny skies. Luckily humidity is not high enough to result in heat indices higher than the mid 90s mitigating a larger concern for heat related illness. No significant changes were needed from the previous forecast. Previous discussion: It's going to be hot today across our area with high temperatures climbing into the high 80s to the low 90s by this afternoon and clear skies. There is an upper level ridge and a surface high that are both centered over our area. This ridge will migrate east as the day progresses. The ridge and surface high support broad scale subsidence leading to clear skies and anomalously high temperatures for this time of year. Combined with dewpoint values in the mid to upper 60s, it will be a very hot and muggy day. Be sure to take appropriate heat precautions if you are going to spend time outside, don't let the time of year put you off guard. Overnight lows will fall to the low to mid 60s with a low chance for patchy fog over the valley areas of northeast and north central AL. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday) Issued at 1027 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 The persistent upper ridge will continue to keep abnormally warm temperatures in place for mid-October, potentially breaking the record daily highs once again at HSV (88 set in 1947) and MSL (91 set in 2015) on Thursday. Thankfully, drier continental air will keep heat indices capped in the upper 80s to lower 90s which will mitigate a larger threat for heat related illness. Aside from the heat, it will be a beautiful day with abundant sunshine and light southerly winds. If you are tired of the heat, there is relief on the way! An upper trough will dig across the Great Lakes and into the mid MS River Valley on Friday pushing a cold front through the area during the morning/early afternoon. Highs will make it into the upper 70s to lower 80s before temperatures begin to plummet behind the front. We will remain dry during this frontal passage with the main impact being breezy gradient winds gusting near 30mph at times Friday afternoon and evening. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 938 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026 A fast-moving upper trough will swing through the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Friday and pivot into the Southern Appalachians Friday night into early Saturday. Very breezy conditions will accompany this feature, with a strong push of cool, dry air moving into the region in its wake. This can be seen with temperatures as they will drop off significantly Friday night, eventually settling into the mid to upper 40s in most locations by early Saturday morning. Breezy post frontal winds out of the NNE will reinforce this air mass as highs will be very notably lower on Saturday and only peak in the mid to upper 60s, and lows again dropping to the 40s. Winds will weaken by Sunday and veer to a more southerly direction as high pressure builds in. This will do little to modify the air mass initially as highs on Sunday will only peak in the mid/upper 60s to lower 70s. Ridging really begins to take shape on Monday and Tuesday of next week, resulting in a gradual warming trend, thanks to ample sunshine and southerly flow. Daytime highs in the mid to upper 70s will be common, with lows in the low to mid 50s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period along with light, variable winds. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...25 SHORT TERM....25 LONG TERM....AMP AVIATION...HC  207 FXUS64 KOUN 142322 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 622 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 608 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Severe thunderstorms possible through the afternoon/evening/night primarily along I-44. - Multiple rounds of heavy rain expected between now and Thursday morning with an increasing flash flood risk. - Colder and drier airmass arrives late Thursday, with weather becoming cool and pleasant by the weekend. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 An area of very heavy rainfall has occurred across portions of western into central Oklahoma last night and this morning. Rainfall in this band has been between 4 and 11 inches of rain. This has resulted in multiple flash flood warnings as well as several rivers going into flood. Combination of height falls, embedded shortwaves moving through the area and warm advection will continue to produce a rather large area of rain and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Although a bit of a lull may occur mid-afternoon, another round of heavy rainfall will develop to our southwest and move into the area late today and overnight. With record PWATs, rainfall rates will continue to very high at least through tonight across much of the Flood Watch. May need to reconfigure the watch based on trends (remove northwest and add to the southeast). Will also keep an eye on location of effective surface boundary for this afternoon as it will be the focus for stronger convective initiation. There currently is a outflow boundary pushing south through western north Texas and southern Oklahoma. If this becomes the primary boundary, the severe threat will be confined to those areas. However, with the large upper low off to our northwest, if a break in the heavier precip does occur the boundary could lift back northward adding area to the potential for severe weather. Strong winds gusts will be the main hazard along with the flooding rainfall, however the risk of hail and even a tornado or two is not out of the question, especially as winds increase this evening as llj redevelops. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Thursday morning the upper low will begin to open up and move north and east across the Central Plains. Meanwhile, at least through the morning hours, we will still be within the warm advection band from southwest Texas into southwest, central and north-central Oklahoma. This could add another inch or two of rainfall to those areas. By Thursday afternoon, as the upper low continue to push off to the northeast, a cold front will surge south and southeast across Oklahoma. Additional convective development is expected along this boundary across south central and southeast Oklahoma Thursday afternoon. A few strong, to low end severe storms appear possible. The front will also create a rather wide range of temperatures from northwest to southeast during the day. Temperatures will struggle to get out of the 60s in the northwest to near 90 degrees in the far southeast. Rain will likely continue Thursday night across the southeast with skies perhaps clearing across the northwest. If this occurs temperatures in the Northwest will drop into the lower 40s by Friday morning with mid/upper 40s and 50s elsewhere. More sun is expected Friday, but in the wake of this strong cold front temperatures will only climb into the upper 50s and low/mid 60s. Far northwest Oklahoma will drop to near freezing Saturday morning, so a frost is definitely a possibility and will need to continue to monitor for a freeze. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026Winds will try to rebound to the south by the afternoon on Saturday, so highs will likely be a few degrees warmer than on Friday, especially with sunny skies expected. Dry conditions and a warming trend into the 70s and 80s are expected through Tuesday as increasing mid-level heights overspreads the southern Plains. Bunker && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 A couple complexes of thunderstorms across southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas will lift to the northeast tonight. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts and reduced visibility/lower ceilings. Across northwest Oklahoma (KWWR), fog and low ceilings will likely persist tonight with IFR flight conditions. A cold front will advance to southeast tomorrow, which will shift winds to the northwest (which will become gusty). Additional showers/storms may develop along the cold front toward the end of the TAF period. Mahale && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 67 78 48 58 / 100 100 20 0 Hobart OK 65 78 48 60 / 100 80 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 69 84 53 62 / 80 100 70 0 Gage OK 58 72 42 57 / 90 20 0 0 Ponca City OK 64 78 45 58 / 100 90 10 0 Durant OK 69 89 55 65 / 30 20 50 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for OKZ005>031-033>040- 042-044. TX...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for TXZ083>085-087-088. && $$ NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...10  246 FXUS65 KTFX 142322 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 522 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions are expected through the weekend with a warm up in temperatures Friday and Saturday. - Gusty winds set up along the Rocky Mountain Front Saturday with breezy conditions across the plains. - Next round of precipitation looks to come through the first half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 128 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: An upper-level ridge will slowly build across the region through Friday, keeping conditions dry through the weekend. High pressure continues to dominate the region through Saturday, keeping subsidence at the surface. Low level moisture from the continued melting snowpack bring another slight potential for fog development/low stratus tonight, particularly along the river valleys. A dry mid level shortwave passing through today over the Rocky Mountain Front has brought windy conditions along the immediate eastern foothills this morning. These winds will decrease throughout the afternoon. This ridge flattens out heading into Saturday, bringing increased westerly flow aloft. A strong 700mb jet sets up along the Rocky Mountain Front Saturday afternoon, which coinciding with peak day time mixing, will mix these stronger winds to the surface. The core of the jet does not extend much east of the Rocky Mountain Front, so the plains will see lesser wind speeds. The increased chinook winds also help push temperatures up back to above normal Saturday. Ensembles hint at a trough coming down from British Columbia during the first half of next week. However, the degree of troughing/timing still varies greatly so details remain uncertain. Though, the forecast is pointing towards a cool down after Saturday with some precipitation chances heading into next week. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Models are still consistently showing the 700mb winds peaking at 60- 75 kts along the immediate eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountain Front Saturday afternoon into evening. There remains some uncertainty in how far east these core winds extend, with some models extending it toward the Cut Bank to Sweet Grass Hills area while some keep the stronger winds to the immediate foothills of the Rocky's. Timing remains uncertain as well. If the peak mid level jet arrives in the mid afternooon then there will be a better chance for gusty winds. Some models trend it later in the evening, which will lower the chances of these winds mixing to the surface. Ensembles show a 40% chance for 58 mph wind gusts at Cut Bank and a 30-60% chance for 75 mph wind gusts along the immediate Rocky Mountain Front foothills. -Wilson && .AVIATION... 15/00Z TAF Period An upper level disturbance moving across the Canadian Prairies will send a frontal boundary/wind shift south across the area tonight. Main impact will be the shift to northerly surface winds later this evening across north-central MT and overnight across SW MT. A few lower to mid level clouds may also develop near the mountains following the shift to northerly winds tonight through Thursday morning. Hoenisch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 31 48 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 26 45 25 62 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 30 50 27 60 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 28 47 24 60 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 19 52 17 56 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 26 46 25 57 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 31 49 25 66 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 30 43 29 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  315 FXUS64 KEPZ 142324 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 524 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 455 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Dry and seasonal temperatures through Thursday, with breezy afternoon winds. - A strong backdoor cold front is set to arrive Thursday night, bringing gusty winds and winter-like temperatures into the weekend. High Wind Warning is in effect for far west Texas and portions of southern New Mexico. Wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible along mountain west slopes. - Freezing temperatures over area mountains may lead to a light wintry mix Saturday morning. - Mostly cloudy skies behind the cold front, with scattered rain showers Friday and Saturday, favoring west Texas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 931 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 The upper-level low moving across the Four Corners will keep conditions dry and breezy today through tomorrow afternoon. Precipitation will be to our east as a trailing front keeps moisture out of our area. Winds today will be from the west- southwest at 10-20 mph, and gusts up to 30 mph in Sierra County and northern Otero County. Winds will shift to the north overnight into tomorrow as a high pressure system spills into the northern Plains, decreasing wind speeds to 5-15 mph during the day. Temperatures today and through tomorrow afternoon will be at or around seasonal averages. These pleasant conditions belie a dramatic change ahead. A second upper-level low will break off from the predominant low moving across the Plains as a ridge starts to dig into the trough in the Pacific Northwest. This new low will bring a potent cold front from the northeast Thursday evening, bringing strong northeasterly winds to the region, especially out east. Thursday evening through Friday morning will be the riskiest period for winds, as sustained wind speeds from 25 to 35 mph will be felt across the region (though Las Cruces up to Holloman AFB will be in a pocket of lighter winds at this time). Wind gusts in the High Wind Watch zones could reach 60 mph or higher. Many of the zones in the High Wind Watch will likely be upgraded to a High Wind Warning later today, especially for El Paso, Hudspeth, and Otero Counties. Other zones like Dona Ana County could see a Wind Advisory at least. Recent rains should keep blowing dust concerns low, but it cannot be ruled out due to the breezy wind gusts. Temperatures on Friday and Saturday will struggle to even reach 60F on Friday as the cold front plummets temperatures to 20-25 degrees below average. The Black Range and Sacramento Mountains could feel more like winter than fall on Friday and are expected to see their first freeze of the season. As moisture from the second low pulls in moisture from the south, some high terrain locales may even see a mix of rain and snow early Saturday morning if the moisture is advected far enough north. Should any snow fall in the high terrain, little to no accumulation is expected due to ground temperatures being too warm. Outside of the high terrain, some isolated to scattered showers are possible in the morning hours on Friday in the eastern reaches of Hudspeth County. Rain chances diminish on Saturday and temperatures begin their climb back to normal on Sunday as the cutoff low off the Baja coast gets picked up by an upper-level trough moving north of us. Another Pacific low is visible on both the extended GFS and ECMWF runs early next week, which could bring an increase in showers and storms by midweek next week, though confidence in impacts is currently low. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 455 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 VFR conditions expected for the valid period. Aside from morning FEW060-080, ceilings will be unlimited at all four TAF sites. Some low end gusty winds from the west will be present for a few hours in the afternoon before dropping off and shifting more northerly in the late afternoon. After 00Z tomorrow, a strong cold front will arrive from the northeast tomorrow evening. Winds will shift to the northeast and become very strong. Winds will be at least 08030G40KT with higher gusts to 50 knots possible. Low level wind shear will also occur tomorrow night, especially over KELP. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 931 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Limited fire weather concerns today and tomorrow. Min RHs today will be above 20%, and for Thursday, lowland Min RHs will be in the mid-to-upper teens and up to 30% in the mountains. Low end gusty winds from the west likely by this afternoon and the north on Thursday. A strong backdoor cold front (moving east to west) will move into the region Thursday night. Winds will shift to the east in the evening hours and increase drastically. The strongest winds will be west of the area mountains as well as Otero, Hudspeth, and El Paso Counties. Sustained wind speeds of 25-35 mph likely for most of the region, with high-end wind gusts reaching 60 mph in the mountains. The strong winds will continue into Friday before diminishing slightly on Saturday. Precipitation chances will be low on Friday and Saturday, favoring out east in West Texas as well as the area mountains. The high mountains may even see a wintry mix early Saturday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 57 80 53 63 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 56 80 45 55 / 0 0 20 30 Las Cruces 51 75 50 64 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 50 77 48 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 38 58 27 39 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 47 72 48 65 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 42 71 45 61 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 49 75 50 66 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 46 76 51 64 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 59 79 56 62 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 57 81 51 61 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Hancock 62 87 54 64 / 0 0 10 20 Loma Linda 53 75 45 54 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 59 84 54 63 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Teresa 54 78 53 61 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 55 78 52 67 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 48 76 49 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 49 77 49 69 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 53 78 54 64 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 51 76 50 64 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 43 69 34 48 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 42 70 34 51 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 43 67 33 48 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 38 66 39 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 47 71 46 63 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 48 73 47 66 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 35 71 39 59 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 43 73 45 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 44 77 51 70 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 40 73 45 66 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 45 71 46 61 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 49 77 53 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 48 76 50 62 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 51 77 51 61 / 0 0 10 10 Cloverdale 47 73 48 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Warning from 6 PM Thursday to noon MDT Friday for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Western El Paso County. NM...Wind Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to midnight MDT Friday night for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley- Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Upper Gila River Valley. High Wind Warning from 9 PM Thursday to midnight MDT Friday night for Lowlands of the Bootheel-Uplands of the Bootheel. High Wind Warning from 6 PM Thursday to noon MDT Friday for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Southeast Tularosa Basin-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet. Wind Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to noon MDT Friday for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Northern Dona Ana County-Sierra County Lakes-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands. && $$ FORECASTER...04-Lundeen  368 FXUS64 KMEG 142325 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 625 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 625 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - A nearby stationary front will be the focus for isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly north of I-40. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. - A strong cold front will pass through the Midsouth Friday, bringing an end to the summer-like heat with much cooler fall temperatures. - Low relative humidity values and elevated 20 ft winds may result in an elevated wildfire danger over portions of the Mid-South on Friday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 12Z upper air analysis places a 594 dm upper level ridge over portions of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. A few subtle shortwaves are traversing the periphery of the upper level ridge over portions of Oklahoma and Missouri. Late morning surface analysis showed a surface high near the Mississippi Gulf Coast and a weak quasi-stationary boundary located just north of the Mid-South over the Middle Mississippi Valley. Southerly winds on the back side of high pressure are advecting higher surface dewpoints in the 70s into the region with 11 AM temperatures mostly in the lower 80s. Short-term model trends suggest the aforementioned stationary boundary will drift south into the area this afternoon before retreating back north as a warm front later tonight into Thursday morning. Regional WSR-88D radar trends over the past few hours have shown continued weakening and dissipation of rain showers as they entered the Mid-South. Poor low to mid-level lapse rates and weak shear will offset surface based instability rising at or above 2000 J/kg along and north of I-40. Isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. However, severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time due to the less than favorable parameter space. Record warmth is expected to continue into Thursday as temperatures will remain well above normal in the lower 90s. Confidence remains high for a stronger northern stream upper- level trough rotating through the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys late Thursday night into Friday, pushing a strong cold front through the forecast area. This frontal passage is expected to be mostly dry with model soundings showing a relatively dry moisture profile. Much cooler fall temperatures are expected behind this front with highs struggling to reach 70 degrees on Saturday and lows dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s Saturday night. We'll be monitoring the potential for some patchy frost over portions of West Tennessee late Saturday night as winds are anticipated to become light with NBM probabilities of temperatures below 38 degrees averaging between 30-40 percent. Long-term ensemble and deterministic model trends continue to depict dry weather continuing well into next week as an upper- level ridge builds across the region. Temperatures will gradually increase back above normal into the 80s across many locations by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. A few lingering showers ahead of a stalled front could impact JBR/MEM/MKL over the next few hours warranting PROB30s at each site. Otherwise dry conditions will prevail across the airspace. Winds will go light and calm overnight before picking up at around 8-12 kts tomorrow morning. A few occasional gusts up to 25 kts are expected tomorrow afternoon at JBR ahead of a cold front. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Mainly dry conditions are expected to continue into next week as moisture or any precipitation is expected to be limited at best. A strong cold front will pass through the region on Friday. Low relative humidity values between 30-40 percent combined with elevated 20 ft winds may result in an elevated fire danger on Friday over portions of east Arkansas and northwest Mississippi. Confidence in fire conditions becoming critical on Friday remains low at this time with higher relative humidity mitigating the potential. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...AEH  340 FXUS64 KMOB 142325 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 625 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Near record highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected through late week. With many areas still without power and recovery efforts from Hurricane Isaias ongoing, these temperatures could lead to an increased risk for heat-related illnesses. - Strong northerly winds develop over the marine area Friday night, becoming easterly and lasting into the weekend. Gale force wind gusts are possible, with conditions posing a hazard to small craft. - A High Risk of dangerous Rip Currents return to area beaches over the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 The forecast is on track with no changes planned at the moment. /29 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Through Saturday night, a strong upper low over over the Southeast gets an eastward shove the end of the week as an upper trough moves from over the Plains to off the East Coast by Saturday evening. A strong cold front crosses the forecast area beginning mid day Friday and moving south of the coast by Friday evening, and south of area waters by Saturday morning. With a distinct lack of moisture with the strong cold front pushing across the forecast area, a temporary increase in clouds is the most that is expected, weather wise. Near record high temperatures across the forecast area ahead of the frontal passage, with mid to upper 80s, plus a few 90s possible. Behind the front, high temperatures drop into the upper 60s to low 70s for Saturday. Low temperatures in the low to mid 60s(upper 60s along the coast) drop into the upper 40s to low 50s Saturday night. Sunday on, an upper ridge builds north over the Mississippi River, with a surface ridge building southwest along the Appalachians. The forecast remains dry, with minimal moisture return to counteract the post-frontal airmass that has moved over the forecast area. Temperatures rise back to above seasonal norms in the coming week. Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a Low Risk is expected the rest of the week. As strong easterly flow sets up over the weekend, a High Risk of Rip Currents returns Sunday on. /16 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 While guidance indicates decreased probabilities for fog development across southeast Mississippi into extreme southwest Alabama tonight, am leaning towards persistence with this issuance. VFR conditions will prevail through the period with the exception of patchy to areas of fog, potentially dense, developing overnight across extreme southeast Mississippi into extreme southwest Alabama. Some patchy overnight fog is also possible across the remaining interior areas. Calm or light and variable winds tonight transition to a southeasterly flow around 5 knots on Thursday. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 A light, diurnally variable, the rest of the week becomes a strong to very strong easterly Friday night behind a cold front moving across the forecast area Friday. A surface ridge building south along the Appalachians later in the weekend into the coming week will shift winds to easterly, whilst remaining strong, especially over open Gulf waters. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 66 87 67 85 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 68 85 68 85 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 69 84 68 83 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 61 90 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 60 90 63 85 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 61 89 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 63 89 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  350 FXUS65 KCYS 142325 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 525 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of rain and high elevation snow is expected late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. - Accumulating snow is expected above 7000 ft this evening through Thursday morning. Snow levels may lower down to 5500 to 6000 feet briefly before precipitation ends later Thursday morning. - A growing-season-ending freeze is expected Thursday night into Friday morning across the entire area. - Drier and milder weather expected this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 400 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Most of our area is in the midst of another lull in the action as the slow moving, powerful upper level low rotates to our south. Dry air in the middle to upper atmosphere is apparent on GOES water vapor imagery moving over most of the area as a dry slot on the eastern flank of the storm system. This is not obvious looking up from the surface though, as persistent easterly upslope flow is keeping low clouds firmly locked in place everywhere along and east of the Laramie range. Low clouds are clearly apparent on GOES visible satellite imagery with the mid to upper level cloud cover gone. Precipitation rates have gone down to near zero without the moisture aloft, but portions of the area are still observing mist. The cloud cover is holding temperatures down for the entire area. Only around Chadron are temperatures exceeding 50 degrees, while everywhere else remains stuck in the 40s. A dynamic period of weather is anticipated over the next 18 hours as the last phase of this storm system gets underway. The center of the upper level low is currently located near the Four Corners, but the primary band of precipitation is developing across central Wyoming. This feature is forced by positive theta-e advection and isentropic lift, which should eventually transition into the TROWAL. Model guidance is finally converging on a solution with this system, but there have been a few recent changes in the overall evolution. While this has removed several of the outlier models from previous runs and increased confidence, the official forecast has not changed significantly. The latest RAP guidance shows the upper level low struggling to fully separate from the northern branch trough this evening. This is expected to limit isentropic lift on the entire northeast flank of the system, which reduces the window for precipitation to just the narrow TROWAL on the back edge. Shower activity is still expected to increase this evening, but QPF expectations are more modest until the primary band of precipitation develops and moves through the area from northwest to southeast Thursday morning. While precipitation rates are still expected to be healthy underneath this band, it will be narrow and moving fairly rapidly, reducing overall QPF compared to some of the more aggressive model solutions yesterday. Current expectations are for 0.5 to 0.75" liquid precipitation in the core of the band from around Arlington towards Torrington and possibly Alliance. 0.25 to 0.5" of QPF are now the most likely scenario along the Douglas to Chadron corridor and along I-80 east of Cheyenne, though localized embedded convective cores will likely lead to locally higher amounts in a few areas. Precipitation will come to an abrupt end Thursday morning, around daybreak along a Rawlins to Chadron line, and then closer to noon around Sidney as a very dry airmass pushes in behind the northern branch shortwave sweeping through. The cold air expectations for this system remain on track with previous forecasts. Snow levels will plummet overnight tonight as the coldest air moves in between about 3AM and 9AM. This is still expected to align with the timing of the heaviest precipitation rates moving across the area. Confidence remains high in accumulating snow about 7000 ft in elevation, including the city of Laramie. The Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to include the Laramie Valley with between 2 and 4 inches of snow as the most likely scenario at this time. While this is somewhat on the low end for an advisory, it will be the first event of the season and likely come with a brief window of heavy snowfall rates aligned with the Thursday morning commute. The remaining Winter Weather Advisories remain on track. Between 6000 ft and 7000 ft, snow is expected to mix in with rain in the narrow coldest window Thursday morning. Between a dusting and an inch of snow can be expected in this elevation window, which includes Cheyenne. Temperatures will be highly marginal, and may not quite reach freezing even if areas receive some snow. Expect a cold and blustery day across the area Thursday. While skies will clear, expect gusty north to northwest winds up to around 30 to 40 mph over much of the area with highs stuck in the 40s to low 50s. This will set up Thursday night for the coldest temperatures of the season. Recent model guidance has trended slower in the end of the gusty winds, meaning we may still be quite breezy into the overnight hours, especially early. This has moderated temperature expectations slightly, but the airmass should still be sufficiently cold to produce a widespread freeze, even if a shallow surface inversion never manages to develop. A Freeze Watch has been issued for the entire area excluding the mountains from midnight until 9AM Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 400 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 After coming off a hard freeze Thursday night, temperatures will gradually warm up Friday after melting off frost and potentially snow for some areas. As the Pacific storm exists towards the Great Lakes region, upper-level ridging will begin to build in behind it. The ridge will rapidly usher in warm air aloft, with 700 mb temperatures rising into the upper single digits. Despite the warm temperatures aloft, surface temperatures will take longer to rebound. Highs on Friday will be about 10 degrees below average, with temperatures generally in the 50s across the forecast area. Areas with snow cover could be cooler, namely the Laramie Valley, with highs in the 40s. Even though temperatures will be on the seasonably cool side, ample sunshine throughout the day will help cut through some of the chill. As the upper-level ridge shifts eastward overnight on Friday, mid- level winds will become more westerly. The westerly winds will pose a possible concern for high winds in the typical southeast Wyoming wind prones of Arlington and Bordeaux during the day Saturday. MSLP gradients will steepen along and west of the Laramie Range. CAG to CPR 850 mb gradients also reach the 50 meter range, signaling the potential for gradient driven marginal high winds in the wind prones. 700 mb winds will reach about 40 kts, but subsidence is rather weak and will likely not play a huge role in the winds Saturday into Sunday morning. Wind gusts of at least 40 to 50 MPH will be likely during the day Saturday and into the overnight hours. Westerly winds will help play a role in the warm, above average temperatures on Saturday. Downsloping winds will aid 90th percentile 700 mb temperatures in achieving daytime highs in the 70s for areas east of the Laramie Range. To the west, highs around 60 degrees can be expected. Ample sunshine is once again expected for Saturday. Above average temperatures will continue into the start of next week with highs in the 60s and 70s expected Sunday through Tuesday. Conditions during this time are also expected to remain dry, with mostly sunny skies expected each day. Cannot rule out a low-end chance of precipitation during the evening on Tuesday as a shortwave glances the CWA, however, models seem to have trended this drier. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 525 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 A storm system will move through the region, this will bring a plethora of aviation impacts to all terminals in our CWA. One of which are low CIGs, expect a continuation of MVFR to IFR CIGs, possibly down to LIFR at times, for all the sites. Another is precipitation moving in this afternoon/evening for the southeast Wyoming terminals and then into the Nebraska Panhandle. This precipitation will mainly start out as rain, but with a surge of colder air as winds become northerly, this rain will transition to snow primarily for the southeast Wyoming terminals. This snow may reduce VIS significantly, possibly down to IFR VIS. However, rain is not expected to transition to snow across the Nebraska Panhandle while this precipitation is expected to linger throughout most of the night. As mentioned previously, winds will become northerly as the storm begins to move off to the east, as it does, look for winds to ramp up with gusts 20 to as high as 35 knots. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for WYZ101-102-104>111-113-115>119. Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Thursday for WYZ110-112- 116. Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Thursday for WYZ114. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon MDT Thursday for WYZ115. Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for WYZ116. NE...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096. && $$ SHORT TERM...MN LONG TERM...SF AVIATION...RZ  420 FXUS63 KFGF 142326 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 626 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Advisory level winds are expected Thursday across eastern North Dakota and the Red River valley behind a cold front passage. - Best chance for widespread freezing temperatures will be Friday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 114 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...Synopsis... Widespread stratus deck continues to linger across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon, keeping temperatures in the low to mid 40s thus far today. Upper flow is nearly zonal, but will be transitioning to southwest this evening and overnight before shifting to the northwest late Thursday evening. Very light precipitation is possible along a cold front Thursday afternoon and evening, mainly from the Red River Valley eastward into northwest Minnesota. Breezy northwest winds pick up early Thursday morning and persist through much of the day. The strongest pressure gradients shift eastward overnight into Friday morning with weak, transient, ridging bringing warmer temperatures into the area for Saturday and Sunday. ...Breezy Northwest Winds Thursday... Sustained northwest winds of 20-30 mph are possible Thursday with gusts upwards of 40-45 mph. This will be in response to a fast moving cold front and strong pressure rises on the western side of the frontal passage. There is still some uncertainty surrounding cloud cover, which could limit mixing during the afternoon and evening and slightly reduce the potential max wind gusts. At this time, the signal is consistently strong, however, with generally moderate to high confidence in the possibility of Advisory level winds. ...Freezing Temperatures Possible Friday Night... Guidance continues to bring colder air into the area following Thursday's cold front. Low temperatures Friday morning are expected to be in the lower 30s, but with lingering cloud cover. A better chance of upper 20s and low 30s will be Friday night into Saturday morning as cloud cover is expected to diminish by midday Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 626 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Satellite and surface observation trends show VFR conditions are finally starting to arrive in the KDVL area. However, the back edge of the persistent MVR status area is still slower to erode in eastern ND than guidance has indicated throughout the day and pessimistic adjustments have been made to linger this into the evening hours across eastern ND/northwest MN before improvement to VFR becomes more likely due to a more definitive shift in surface pattern/winds. After a period of VFR conditions later tonight into midday Thursday a cold front moves into northeast ND and far northwest MN returning MVFR and eventually IFR stratus to the region (IFR more likely at KDVL Thursday afternoon). This will eventually overspread the entire region Thursday evening and likely persist. Winds are currently light and variable, but with the approach of low pressure to the west should shift to the south and southwest overnight increasing. Behind the cold front winds will turn to the west-northwest and increase with gusts 30kt or higher likely over parts of eastern ND Thursday afternoon. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 1 AM CDT Friday for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052-054. MN...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 1 AM CDT Friday for MNZ001-004-007. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...DJR  471 FXUS63 KOAX 142327 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 627 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - 20 to 30% chance for some scattered showers late this afternoon and evening, mainly along the Kansas/Nebraska border area. Widespread rain chances (80 to 90%) move in late this evening into Thursday morning. - Rain clears by Thursday evening with the rest of the week remaining dry. - Frost threat continues for Friday night into Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 18z RAP objective analysis depicts a strong 563dam closed low over the Four Corners area. To the east, some mid-level ridging is observed over the Northern Plains where a sfc high remains in place. Subsidence from the feature has kept the low level stratus deck over the northern half of the forecast area firmly in place. As such, have nudged highs a tad downward from NBM guidance with this forecast update. Most locations reach the mid 50s to low 60s. H8 warm advection will increase late this afternoon and evening as the baroclinic zone lifts northward. This and some nebulous forcing from a weak wave ejecting toward the forecast area from Kansas could spark off a few isolated showers or storms (20-30% chance) along our western and southern border areas. However, the best mid level forcing for ascent associated with the closed H5 low won't arrive until closer to midnight. Gulf moisture working in tandem with these forcing mechanisms should help generate widely scattered showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder given the 200-300 J/kg of MUCAPE. PoPs increase areawide after 05z from 30 to 50%, to 90 to 100% by 12z Thursday morning. Expect a good dousing of rain: most locations see 0.50 to 0.75 inches of rain, while isolated spots could see closer to 1 inch. Latest NBM probabilities indicate portions along and northwest of a line from Lincoln to Omaha to Harlan with a 50 to 70% chance of at least an inch of rain. Probabilities largely taper off at 1.5 inches or more. The rain and cloud cover should help keep highs in the 50s to low 60s. Rain showers linger in the late afternoon and evening as the deformation zone of the sfc low lingers. Wind speeds will gradually pick up too as we'll see a tightening pressure gradient. Expect gusts of 30 to 35 mph from the northwest. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Model guidance depicts a strong push of cold H8 air sinking southward in the late evening. Subsidence should help push some of the 40-50 kt LLJ air downward resulting in gusts increasing to 45 to 50 mph early Friday morning and persisting through most of the daytime. Our upcoming rain event should help tamper down fire weather concerns. Winds gradually decrease in speed late Friday as the H8 jet pivots to the east. Highs only warm to the 50s areawide under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Late Friday night into early Saturday morning, should see a strong 1040mb sfc high move into most of the Central and Northern Plains. The light winds and clear skies should allow for us to cool efficiently to the low to mid 30s. Expect areas of frost to develop over most of the forecast area and a freeze isn't out of the question either, particularly in far northeast Nebraska. A warming trend starts for Saturday through Tuesday as 1000-500mb thicknesses expand over the region. Expect highs in the 60s this weekend, eventually hitting the 70s by Tuesday. PoPs remain less than 15% during this timeframe so expect mostly dry conditions. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 We've seen improving conditions over the last several hours with cigs lifting to VFR. Rain moves in overnight bringing back IFR conditions with winds shifting to northerly. Rain continues into Thursday with IFR cigs and visibility 3-5SM through the morning. Winds start to increase during the afternoon as showers taper off and cigs start to break up and lift. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Castillo AVIATION...McCoy  386 FXUS63 KSGF 142325 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 625 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch is effect through 4 PM Thursday as rounds of showers and thunderstorms move through the area. A risk for localized heavy rainfall and isolated severe storms will accompany this system. - Cooler temperatures this weekend with highs in the 50s to 60s and lows in the 30s to 40s for Friday and Saturday. Expect gusty northerly winds on Friday up to 35 mph. - Increasing confidence in patchy frost Saturday and Sunday mornings. The highest confidence is on Sunday morning across portions of the eastern Ozarks. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Today-Tonight: An upper-level trough is gradually building out Four Corners region, with associates shortwaves ejecting through southwest flow. This area of lift continues to override a stationary boundary extending from the Texas Panhandle through the Ohio Valley. As a result, periods of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms continue to persist across the area today. Overnight rainfall totals pushed 0.5 to 2 inches in many locations, with a few localized corridors of 3 to 4 inches. Despite some higher rainfall totals, any flooding or rises on creeks/streams has been hard to come by given the Severe to Extreme drought conditions in place. As we progress through the afternoon, activity will remain scattered in nature with much of it remaining light. Some of this activity may even fall as drizzle at times with a loss of cloud ice. With this in mind, temperatures will struggle to get much higher than upper 60s to lower 70s across the area. By this evening, much of the area should see a break with drizzle being the only caveat. Otherwise, a period of dry conditions is expected through the evening and portions of tonight ahead of the next wave of energy and associated showers and thunderstorms lifting out of OK around midnight or after. This overnight round will be associated with a low lifting through the area as a warm front surges north through southern M0. This area of showers and thunderstorms will coincide with an increasing low-level jet (25 to 30 knots) overnight. Given the setup of recovering instability (MUCAPE ~1500 J/kg) and adequate deep layer shear (30 to 40 knots) in the warm and moist airmass, an isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remains possible. This is captured by the SPC Marginal (1 of 5) Severe Risk into southeast KS and southwest MO through tonight. Primary hazard would be damaging wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph within any multicell line segments. Overall, confidence remains relatively low in the severe potential and coverage. It is quiet possible that SPC elects to remove the Marginal all together in future updates. Additional focus remains centered on the potential for localized heavy rainfall and a few instances of flash flooding. The Flood Watch remains in effect through 4 PM Thursday. The greatest potential for localized flooding will be confined to areas that saw higher rainfall amounts into Wednesday morning, generally along and north of Interstate 44. This aligns with the latest trends in the CAMs, with REFS LPMM capturing a few narrow corridors of 1 to 3 inches of additional rainfall. This area is focused from southeast KS to the northeast into the Lake of the Ozarks region. However, trends will need to be monitored for any wobbling north or south with heavier rainfall axes. Rain dissipates through mid-morning Thursday. A period of dry weather through Thursday afternoon, with even some breaks in the clouds, especially south of Interstate 44. This will support warming temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lower temperatures elsewhere under the cloud cover. The last leg of this active pattern will be scattered showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of the advancing cold front. No severe weather or flooding are expected with this final round of activity, clearing the area through Thursday evening/night. However, attention will quickly turn towards a dramatic cooldown across the region. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Friday-Sunday: High pressure will quickly settle into the region overnight Thursday into Friday morning, supporting much cooler temperatures. This will be accompanied by brisk north winds on Friday, upwards of 25 to 35 mph. While clouds will gradually clear through the day on Friday, highs only reach into the middle to upper 50s, near 60. The brisk north winds will make it feel more like 40s. As winds lie down and skies clear Friday, a rather chilly night is in the forecast. Lows Friday night fall into into the upper 30s to around 40 for most locations, outside of the valleys and protected areas. These areas may see lows closer towards freezing into Saturday morning, in addition to some patchy areas of frost. At this time, confidence remains to low to introduce any frost headlines, but will be monitored in future forecast updates. Highs rebound into the 60s for Saturday and Sunday, with drier weather prevailing. An additional chance for some frost into Sunday morning, especially across the Eastern Ozarks. Monday-Tuesday: High pressure and a ridge gradually build back over the region early next week. This will support a warming trend, with highs returning into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Confidence continues to increase on this warm up, as gleaned by the small interquartile spreads and CPC 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 Day above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Ceilings will likely bounce around between VFR and MVFR this evening. An area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move back into the area after 06z and last through the early morning hours. Have gone with tempo groups for now with the highest confidence at SGF and JLN. BBG could see some IFR ceilings briefly overnight and will need to monitor that for amendments. Flight conditions look to bounce around again on Thursday as a few rounds of rain move through the area. Winds will start out southeasterly with a gradual shift to the south or southwest on Thursday. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for MOZ055>057-066>069- 077>080-088-089. && $$ SHORT TERM...Perez LONG TERM...Perez AVIATION...Burchfield  413 FXUS64 KJAN 142326 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 626 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - There is an increased threat for fire danger conditions across the forecast area through the weekend. - A strong, dry cold front will bring windy conditions Friday. - Very little if any rainfall is expected through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 335 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 An unusually strong and warm subtropical ridge is persisting over the forecast area. This will bring additional threats for record warmth, and an increased threat for fire danger as we go through the next few days. Meanwhile, a significant shortwave trough is forecast by all guidance to track southeast from western Canada into the eastern CONUS in the near term. As this happens, a strong surface cold front will push across the area Friday. Unfortunately, a very tight pressure gradient that develops in the rapid transition from strong ridge to strong trough will result in windy conditions Friday. Given there is very little to no rainfall expected with the front, the combination of dry/windy conditions will further enhance the fire danger risk, and we will likely need to issue fire product headlines. In addition, we will to continue message the limited gradient wind threat through our graphics, and monitor the potential for greater threats and wind related headlines. Otherwise, it is worth noting that cooler temperatures more typical for this time of the year will be arriving. Looking ahead, it appears the lower heights associated with the trough will be temporary in the progressive upper level pattern, so expect ridging to quickly return by early to mid next week with surface temperatures warming back up in response. The potential for getting rainfall is quite low with this pattern. /EC/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 VFR conditions wl prevail through 10Z. After 10Z IFR/LIFR conditions wl be psbl in the south until 14Z. After 14Z VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the end of the TAF period. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 63 92 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 61 91 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 63 92 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 61 92 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 63 92 64 88 / 0 0 0 10 Greenville 66 93 65 80 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 65 94 64 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074. LA...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026. AR...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for ARZ074-075. && $$ /22  420 FXUS63 KFGF 142326 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 626 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Advisory level winds are expected Thursday across eastern North Dakota and the Red River valley behind a cold front passage. - Best chance for widespread freezing temperatures will be Friday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 114 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...Synopsis... Widespread stratus deck continues to linger across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon, keeping temperatures in the low to mid 40s thus far today. Upper flow is nearly zonal, but will be transitioning to southwest this evening and overnight before shifting to the northwest late Thursday evening. Very light precipitation is possible along a cold front Thursday afternoon and evening, mainly from the Red River Valley eastward into northwest Minnesota. Breezy northwest winds pick up early Thursday morning and persist through much of the day. The strongest pressure gradients shift eastward overnight into Friday morning with weak, transient, ridging bringing warmer temperatures into the area for Saturday and Sunday. ...Breezy Northwest Winds Thursday... Sustained northwest winds of 20-30 mph are possible Thursday with gusts upwards of 40-45 mph. This will be in response to a fast moving cold front and strong pressure rises on the western side of the frontal passage. There is still some uncertainty surrounding cloud cover, which could limit mixing during the afternoon and evening and slightly reduce the potential max wind gusts. At this time, the signal is consistently strong, however, with generally moderate to high confidence in the possibility of Advisory level winds. ...Freezing Temperatures Possible Friday Night... Guidance continues to bring colder air into the area following Thursday's cold front. Low temperatures Friday morning are expected to be in the lower 30s, but with lingering cloud cover. A better chance of upper 20s and low 30s will be Friday night into Saturday morning as cloud cover is expected to diminish by midday Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 626 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Satellite and surface observation trends show VFR conditions are finally starting to arrive in the KDVL area. However, the back edge of the persistent MVR status area is still slower to erode in eastern ND than guidance has indicated throughout the day and pessimistic adjustments have been made to linger this into the evening hours across eastern ND/northwest MN before improvement to VFR becomes more likely due to a more definitive shift in surface pattern/winds. After a period of VFR conditions later tonight into midday Thursday a cold front moves into northeast ND and far northwest MN returning MVFR and eventually IFR stratus to the region (IFR more likely at KDVL Thursday afternoon). This will eventually overspread the entire region Thursday evening and likely persist. Winds are currently light and variable, but with the approach of low pressure to the west should shift to the south and southwest overnight increasing. Behind the cold front winds will turn to the west-northwest and increase with gusts 30kt or higher likely over parts of eastern ND Thursday afternoon. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 1 AM CDT Friday for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052-054. MN...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 1 AM CDT Friday for MNZ001-004-007. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...DJR  471 FXUS63 KOAX 142327 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 627 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - 20 to 30% chance for some scattered showers late this afternoon and evening, mainly along the Kansas/Nebraska border area. Widespread rain chances (80 to 90%) move in late this evening into Thursday morning. - Rain clears by Thursday evening with the rest of the week remaining dry. - Frost threat continues for Friday night into Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 18z RAP objective analysis depicts a strong 563dam closed low over the Four Corners area. To the east, some mid-level ridging is observed over the Northern Plains where a sfc high remains in place. Subsidence from the feature has kept the low level stratus deck over the northern half of the forecast area firmly in place. As such, have nudged highs a tad downward from NBM guidance with this forecast update. Most locations reach the mid 50s to low 60s. H8 warm advection will increase late this afternoon and evening as the baroclinic zone lifts northward. This and some nebulous forcing from a weak wave ejecting toward the forecast area from Kansas could spark off a few isolated showers or storms (20-30% chance) along our western and southern border areas. However, the best mid level forcing for ascent associated with the closed H5 low won't arrive until closer to midnight. Gulf moisture working in tandem with these forcing mechanisms should help generate widely scattered showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder given the 200-300 J/kg of MUCAPE. PoPs increase areawide after 05z from 30 to 50%, to 90 to 100% by 12z Thursday morning. Expect a good dousing of rain: most locations see 0.50 to 0.75 inches of rain, while isolated spots could see closer to 1 inch. Latest NBM probabilities indicate portions along and northwest of a line from Lincoln to Omaha to Harlan with a 50 to 70% chance of at least an inch of rain. Probabilities largely taper off at 1.5 inches or more. The rain and cloud cover should help keep highs in the 50s to low 60s. Rain showers linger in the late afternoon and evening as the deformation zone of the sfc low lingers. Wind speeds will gradually pick up too as we'll see a tightening pressure gradient. Expect gusts of 30 to 35 mph from the northwest. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Model guidance depicts a strong push of cold H8 air sinking southward in the late evening. Subsidence should help push some of the 40-50 kt LLJ air downward resulting in gusts increasing to 45 to 50 mph early Friday morning and persisting through most of the daytime. Our upcoming rain event should help tamper down fire weather concerns. Winds gradually decrease in speed late Friday as the H8 jet pivots to the east. Highs only warm to the 50s areawide under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Late Friday night into early Saturday morning, should see a strong 1040mb sfc high move into most of the Central and Northern Plains. The light winds and clear skies should allow for us to cool efficiently to the low to mid 30s. Expect areas of frost to develop over most of the forecast area and a freeze isn't out of the question either, particularly in far northeast Nebraska. A warming trend starts for Saturday through Tuesday as 1000-500mb thicknesses expand over the region. Expect highs in the 60s this weekend, eventually hitting the 70s by Tuesday. PoPs remain less than 15% during this timeframe so expect mostly dry conditions. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 We've seen improving conditions over the last several hours with cigs lifting to VFR. Rain moves in overnight bringing back IFR conditions with winds shifting to northerly. Rain continues into Thursday with IFR cigs and visibility 3-5SM through the morning. Winds start to increase during the afternoon as showers taper off and cigs start to break up and lift. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Castillo AVIATION...McCoy  386 FXUS63 KSGF 142325 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 625 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch is effect through 4 PM Thursday as rounds of showers and thunderstorms move through the area. A risk for localized heavy rainfall and isolated severe storms will accompany this system. - Cooler temperatures this weekend with highs in the 50s to 60s and lows in the 30s to 40s for Friday and Saturday. Expect gusty northerly winds on Friday up to 35 mph. - Increasing confidence in patchy frost Saturday and Sunday mornings. The highest confidence is on Sunday morning across portions of the eastern Ozarks. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Today-Tonight: An upper-level trough is gradually building out Four Corners region, with associates shortwaves ejecting through southwest flow. This area of lift continues to override a stationary boundary extending from the Texas Panhandle through the Ohio Valley. As a result, periods of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms continue to persist across the area today. Overnight rainfall totals pushed 0.5 to 2 inches in many locations, with a few localized corridors of 3 to 4 inches. Despite some higher rainfall totals, any flooding or rises on creeks/streams has been hard to come by given the Severe to Extreme drought conditions in place. As we progress through the afternoon, activity will remain scattered in nature with much of it remaining light. Some of this activity may even fall as drizzle at times with a loss of cloud ice. With this in mind, temperatures will struggle to get much higher than upper 60s to lower 70s across the area. By this evening, much of the area should see a break with drizzle being the only caveat. Otherwise, a period of dry conditions is expected through the evening and portions of tonight ahead of the next wave of energy and associated showers and thunderstorms lifting out of OK around midnight or after. This overnight round will be associated with a low lifting through the area as a warm front surges north through southern M0. This area of showers and thunderstorms will coincide with an increasing low-level jet (25 to 30 knots) overnight. Given the setup of recovering instability (MUCAPE ~1500 J/kg) and adequate deep layer shear (30 to 40 knots) in the warm and moist airmass, an isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remains possible. This is captured by the SPC Marginal (1 of 5) Severe Risk into southeast KS and southwest MO through tonight. Primary hazard would be damaging wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph within any multicell line segments. Overall, confidence remains relatively low in the severe potential and coverage. It is quiet possible that SPC elects to remove the Marginal all together in future updates. Additional focus remains centered on the potential for localized heavy rainfall and a few instances of flash flooding. The Flood Watch remains in effect through 4 PM Thursday. The greatest potential for localized flooding will be confined to areas that saw higher rainfall amounts into Wednesday morning, generally along and north of Interstate 44. This aligns with the latest trends in the CAMs, with REFS LPMM capturing a few narrow corridors of 1 to 3 inches of additional rainfall. This area is focused from southeast KS to the northeast into the Lake of the Ozarks region. However, trends will need to be monitored for any wobbling north or south with heavier rainfall axes. Rain dissipates through mid-morning Thursday. A period of dry weather through Thursday afternoon, with even some breaks in the clouds, especially south of Interstate 44. This will support warming temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lower temperatures elsewhere under the cloud cover. The last leg of this active pattern will be scattered showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of the advancing cold front. No severe weather or flooding are expected with this final round of activity, clearing the area through Thursday evening/night. However, attention will quickly turn towards a dramatic cooldown across the region. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Friday-Sunday: High pressure will quickly settle into the region overnight Thursday into Friday morning, supporting much cooler temperatures. This will be accompanied by brisk north winds on Friday, upwards of 25 to 35 mph. While clouds will gradually clear through the day on Friday, highs only reach into the middle to upper 50s, near 60. The brisk north winds will make it feel more like 40s. As winds lie down and skies clear Friday, a rather chilly night is in the forecast. Lows Friday night fall into into the upper 30s to around 40 for most locations, outside of the valleys and protected areas. These areas may see lows closer towards freezing into Saturday morning, in addition to some patchy areas of frost. At this time, confidence remains to low to introduce any frost headlines, but will be monitored in future forecast updates. Highs rebound into the 60s for Saturday and Sunday, with drier weather prevailing. An additional chance for some frost into Sunday morning, especially across the Eastern Ozarks. Monday-Tuesday: High pressure and a ridge gradually build back over the region early next week. This will support a warming trend, with highs returning into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Confidence continues to increase on this warm up, as gleaned by the small interquartile spreads and CPC 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 Day above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Ceilings will likely bounce around between VFR and MVFR this evening. An area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move back into the area after 06z and last through the early morning hours. Have gone with tempo groups for now with the highest confidence at SGF and JLN. BBG could see some IFR ceilings briefly overnight and will need to monitor that for amendments. Flight conditions look to bounce around again on Thursday as a few rounds of rain move through the area. Winds will start out southeasterly with a gradual shift to the south or southwest on Thursday. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for MOZ055>057-066>069- 077>080-088-089. && $$ SHORT TERM...Perez LONG TERM...Perez AVIATION...Burchfield  413 FXUS64 KJAN 142326 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 626 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - There is an increased threat for fire danger conditions across the forecast area through the weekend. - A strong, dry cold front will bring windy conditions Friday. - Very little if any rainfall is expected through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 335 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 An unusually strong and warm subtropical ridge is persisting over the forecast area. This will bring additional threats for record warmth, and an increased threat for fire danger as we go through the next few days. Meanwhile, a significant shortwave trough is forecast by all guidance to track southeast from western Canada into the eastern CONUS in the near term. As this happens, a strong surface cold front will push across the area Friday. Unfortunately, a very tight pressure gradient that develops in the rapid transition from strong ridge to strong trough will result in windy conditions Friday. Given there is very little to no rainfall expected with the front, the combination of dry/windy conditions will further enhance the fire danger risk, and we will likely need to issue fire product headlines. In addition, we will to continue message the limited gradient wind threat through our graphics, and monitor the potential for greater threats and wind related headlines. Otherwise, it is worth noting that cooler temperatures more typical for this time of the year will be arriving. Looking ahead, it appears the lower heights associated with the trough will be temporary in the progressive upper level pattern, so expect ridging to quickly return by early to mid next week with surface temperatures warming back up in response. The potential for getting rainfall is quite low with this pattern. /EC/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 VFR conditions wl prevail through 10Z. After 10Z IFR/LIFR conditions wl be psbl in the south until 14Z. After 14Z VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the end of the TAF period. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 63 92 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 61 91 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 63 92 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 61 92 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 63 92 64 88 / 0 0 0 10 Greenville 66 93 65 80 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 65 94 64 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074. LA...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026. AR...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for ARZ074-075. && $$ /22  514 FXAK69 PAFG 142328 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 328 PM AKDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... - Isolated snow showers possible through the day with a period of light snow in the Eastern Interior by midday and lingering into the afternoon. - A front moves in from the southeast Thursday morning with light snow likely as early as 7AM in Northway/Eagle, then during the afternoon/evening in Fairbanks. Snow may mix with rain in the Tanana Valley. * Snow accumulations around 1 inch or less is expected from Fairbanks south/east with 1 to 3 inches north of Fairbanks. - Gusty east winds are likely on Thursday, 20 to 35 mph below 1500 ft in elevation, and 35 to 45 mph above 1500 ft. Areas of minor blowing snow possible north of Fairbanks Thursday afternoon/evening. - Light snow lingers north/west of Fairbanks on Friday, then swings back through Fairbanks on Saturday with minor accumulations less than 1 inch. West Coast and Western Interior... - Rain showers, stratus, & areas of fog persist through tomorrow morning but the afternoon will be improving, gradually. - Windy for most of the area tomorrow with gusts to 35 mph. From the Bering Strait to Yukon Delta Coast, expect gusts around 25-45 mph today through Friday afternoon, weakening overnight. - Light snow likely from McGrath north/east Thursday night into Friday with isolated snow showers in Western AK this weekend. North Slope and Brooks Range... - Remaining mostly dry until an area of light snow moves into the Eastern Brooks Range Thursday night/Friday. Light snow moves to the Arctic Coast Friday afternoon and continues at times through the weekend. * 1 to 3 inches of snow expected. - Northeast winds increase along the eastern Arctic Coast Thursday and continue through Friday with gusts up to 45 mph, some blowing snow is possible. - Remaining breezy in Point Hope with gusts to 45 mph through Friday morning. Northeast winds increase in Utqiagvik Friday afternoon and continue through Saturday with gusts to 30 mph. && .SYNOPSIS...Stubborn fog stuck around the Interior, including Fairbanks, through much of the day today. That has slowly been mixing-out via turbulent mixing from solar heating today. For the rest of the week, the western coastal areas are expected to continue to receive breezy conditions through the end of the work-week while it is expected to become breezy for the Arctic Coast for Thursday afternoon through Friday. The Interior can expect gusty winds to pick-up for Thursday. For the weekend, some snow accumulations on the lighter-side appear likely to occur for Saturday for much of the Interior. For the Brooks Range & the North Slope, a frontal system will push-in from the south for Thursday & Friday, which looks to bring occasional light snowfall. As temperatures remain well below freezing for that area, for late work-week into the weekend, a bit of blowing snow is possible, but it is not anticipated to be very impactful in intensity, except for around the upper elevations along the Dalton HWY, which could see visibilities become more reduced. This is also possible for northern portions of the Interior for Thursday & Thursday night as the light snow begins. && .SHORT TERM.../Through Saturday Night/...Some stubborn fog stuck around spots around the Interior, including Fairbanks, through much of the day today. That has slowly been thinning-out/mixing-out via turbulent mixing from solar heating today. For the eastern part of the Interior, some very light isolated snow showers have also occurred from a very weak frontal feature moving from south to north overhead. A SFC low over the NW GUlf of Alaska located near Kodiak Island today will generally drift eastward into Saturday while gradually weakening. It will send another stronger, but still relatively weak, warm front rotating around it northwestward over the Alaska Range & into the Interior from the south for Thursday & Friday, bringing in moisture for increased chances for some light rain & light snowfall. As far is precipitation-type is concerned, as the front pushes northwestward, it looks like primarily rain is likely to occur at elevations below 1,000 ft, especially around the Fairbanks/Tanana Valley area Friday morning behind the warm frontal feature, & primarily snow is likely to occur above that elevation. Once the precipitation reaches a line that extends from the eastern Brooks Range to the McGrath area, it looks like primarily snow is most likely to occur as the front weakens & stalls-out while an Arctic cold front pushes southeastward. The more western portions of the Interior & the west coast of Alaska are expected to stay on the drier side through the period. Light snow & blowing snow are expected for the North Slope & Arctic Coast, bringing up to around 1 to 3 inches to that area into the weekend. Some gusty winds will be in store from a tightening pressure gradient out ahead of this warm front for the Interior & our coastal areas as the aforementioned low drifts eastward & the warm front pushes northwestward. On Thursday & Thursday night, these winds could gust as high as 35 mph in the lower elevations & up to 45 mph for areas above 1,500 ft. Along with temperatures staying well below freezing, the gradient will also be tightened over the North Slope & Arctic Coast, causing the aforementioned snow to blow around. This tightened gradient will also cause breezy conditions along the west coast. As we approach the end of the short term forecast period, the aforementioned arctic front moving-in from the NW will push the weakened warm front eastward that will be stalled-out over the over the Interior, which will cool high temperatures around 5 degrees over the Interior on average from the upper 30s to around 40 to the low to mid 30s for the weekend. This will bring light snow shower chances back to the eastern & central Interior, including Fairbanks, for Saturday through Saturday night with accumulations up to around 1 inch or less currently anticipated. && .LONG TERM.../Sunday through Tuesday/...The Arctic front pushing southeastward that was talked about in the short term section will bring temperatures down to around normal/seasonable values over our entire area of responsibility. As we progress through the long term forecast period & beyond, ensembles indicate that any approaching Bering Sea lows will miss our region to the south, moving eastward more toward the Bristol Bay / Alaska Peninsula area & the northern Gulf of Alaska. This continues the general current weather pattern that has been in place. This solution looks to result in generally similar weather weather as is forecast for the latter half of this week, a SE to NW moving warm front & shortwaves wrapping around the parent low located in the northern Gulf, bringing breezier/gustier conditions & some light snow showers to the Alaska Range & the Interior area. Temperatures look to be a bit below normal starting on Sunday & look to stay that way into next week, but not extremely cold. Aside from the West Coast, temperatures may struggle to make it above the freezing mark from the latter half of the weekend & lasting at least into next week as is indicated by 850mb model forecast temperatures getting about 5 degrees Celsius colder than current values. Coastal Hazard Potential...No coastal flooding concerns at this time... && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ802>805-850-852. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ806-853. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ807-812-814-815-858-860. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ811-856. Brisk Wind Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ816-817- 851-854. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ856. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ857. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Chambers SYNOPSIS...Chambers SHORT TERM...Chambers LONG TERM...Chambers COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...Chambers  497 FXUS61 KAKQ 142328 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 728 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated aviation discussion. Timing for morning showers tomorrow have trended slightly later, and are mainly confined to northern sections. The Friday night/Saturday cold front has also trended slightly later, with cooler temperatures and higher rain chances therefore now forecast Saturday morning. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for the northern nearshore coastal waters and the lower Chesapeake Bay. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Very warm, record breaking temperatures this afternoon quickly give way to increasing clouds and a much cooler day Thursday. 2) Warm and breezy Friday with a few gusty showers Friday night into Saturday. Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Very warm, record breaking temperatures this afternoon quickly give way to increasing clouds and a much cooler day Thursday. Latest surface analysis reveals ~1020 mb surface high pressure centered over the western Atlantic. To the north, a wavy front remains draped over the northern mid-Atlantic into New England. To the west, a chilly 1024+ mb high is centered over the Northern Plains, and will push into the Upper Midwest by this evening. Aloft, an upper ridge centered over the west-central Gulf coast extends into the local area. The rising heights are allowing unseasonable warmth across the region. Upstream, a closed low over the Four Corners region will be absorbed into a northern stream trough which will drop across the Canadian Prairies tonight into tomorrow. It is this system which will bring sharply colder air to the region this weekend. Locally, temperatures are well into the 80s to around 90 at 19z. Several local records for the date have already been broken. These have been included below for reference. High pressure to the north will slowly build across the Great Lakes and New England tonight and early Thursday, slowly pushing the front to the north closer to the area. That front will cross into the region Thu morning. Clouds will increase overnight, with mostly cloudy conditions then persisting through tomorrow evening. A few showers could accompany the front as it pushes into the area late tonight, but the frontal passage should be mainly dry. The surface high ridges down the eastern slope of the Appalachians Thursday, allowing a CAD wedge to develop. High-res guidance continues to trend cooler for tomorrow and highs have been nudged slightly down given the persistent overcast conditions and chilly NE flow. Weak isentropic lift across the northern zones will primarily reinforce the developing stratus, it could also allow for some light sprinkles or light rain tomorrow morning. Highs near and south of the VA/NC line will rise back into the 70s to near 80 with clouds being a bit thinner and slower to arrive. Farther north, especially N of I-64, temperatures will follow a non-diurnal temperature curve with highs realized in the morning or by midday before leveling off or even falling off slightly. KEY MESSAGE 2...Warm and breezy Friday with a few gusty showers Friday night into Saturday. Much cooler temperatures arrive this weekend. The Canadian deep upper trough is forecast to dig across the Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday with a strengthening surface low over the Ohio Valley. Southerly flow ahead of this feature will allow the front to lift back northward as a warm front Friday morning. High temps rebound into the low 80s N with mid and upper 80s S. It will become breezy out of the SW by Friday afternoon. A rapidly deepening low pressure will translate NE into New England on Friday with a strong cold front extending back to the southwest. This front will cross the local area late Friday evening into early Saturday with significant cold advection moving into the region. Trends from the past few cycles of probabilistic guidance, along with the ECMWF/CMC deterministic runs are favoring a stronger shortwave trough which digs farther south into the mid-Atlantic. This results in a slightly slower progression of the front late Friday night and Saturday. While QPF remains light steep low- level lapse rates and vigorous momentum transfer could mix down 35-40 mph gusts to the surface fairly easily coincident with the frontal passage. Otherwise, while favorable kinematics support storm organization, meager moisture/instability and now later nocturnal timing all significantly limit severe potential beyond the previously referenced gusty frontal wind threat. Strong (1035mb+) high pressure builds into the region behind the front with upper troughing remaining over the eastern CONUS, resulting in well below normal temperatures this weekend. Given the delayed timing and subsequent onset of cold advection, Sat highs are also likely to be realized early in the day. Afternoon temps likely remain more or less steady even with gradual clearing, with upper 50s to low 60s S/SE. It will also remain quite breezy on Saturday with gusts 25-30 mph, and especially near the coast where winds could gust 30-35 mph. Overnight low temps tumble into the mid to upper 30s in the Piedmont with low to mid 40s for the remainder of the area Saturday night. Upper 30s and low 40s are forecast Sunday night into Monday. Some frost is possible in the Piedmont with this airmass, especially if temps continue to trend toward the cooler MOS guidance which shows temps in the low 30s in the typically cooler spots. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 730 PM EDT Wednesday... VFR conditions start the 00z/15 TAF period, persisting through the night. Winds will become more N-NE by late tonight/early Thursday as a back door cold front drops south into the area early Thursday morning. Ahead of this front, cloud cover will increase from the west, becoming OVC by morning. Behind the boundary, winds could gust to 15-20 kt for ORF/PHF. There will also be some low-end rain chances for RIC/SBY throughout the day. CIGs will slowly drop early morning, reaching MVFR CIGs after 12z/15 across all terminals. There may be a brief period in the afternoon when CIGs lift to VFR, but by the evening, MVFR to IFR CIGs return, lasting through early Friday morning. Outlook: The front will briefly lift back north of the area, allowing a return to VFR conditions Friday, with breezy SW winds developing in the warm sector. However, deteriorating flying conditions return later Fri evening through Sat evening as a second, stronger cold front crosses the area. Additional rain chances and gusty NW winds are expected Sat morning into the afternoon post- frontal. VFR conditions return early Sunday morning through Monday. && .MARINE... As of 305 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - NE winds increase behind a backdoor cold front Thursday. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the coastal waters N of Cape Charles and the lower Chesapeake Bay. - A longer-duration wind event is likely along and behind a strong cold front beginning later Friday, potentially lingering through most of the weekend. NNW winds will likely frequently gust over 34 kt for a period of time. High pressure is centered south of the area this afternoon. Winds across the local waters are generally light out of the S-SW, but have become locally variable near the coast of S VA where a weak sea breeze is attempting to develop. Quick changes are coming late tonight into Thursday as a backdoor cold front drops southward, with an abrupt shift in winds to the NE -- first across the N just before sunrise and then by mid-late morning across the S. Wind speeds are also forecast to increase to 15-20 kt. The highest confidence in gusts to 25 kt are in the southern Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters N of the NC/VA border. These NE wind events also tend to lead to higher seas than forecast by the numerical wave guidance, so am currently expecting seas to peak in the 4-5 ft range N of Cape Charles. Therefore, issued a Small Craft Advisory for the coastal waters N of Cape Charles for those higher seas and ~25 kt gusts and for the lower Chesapeake Bay for 20-25 kt gusts and 2-4 ft waves. These higher winds will be rather short-lived, gradually diminishing later in the day on Thursday. SCAs are in effect through the early afternoon hours. The front will lift back N as a warm front Thursday night/early Friday morning with winds quickly becoming S-SW by Friday. By later Friday, low pressure is forecast to track into interior New England, with a sharp cold front extending SW. This front is still expected to pass through the area in the Friday-Saturday timeframe. However, there has been some changes in the model guidance over the past 12-24 hrs, including a trend toward a later frontal passage and a longer duration in the elevated N/NNW winds. The peak winds now look to occur during the day Saturday, but could certainly extend into the Saturday night and Sunday timeframe. The 12z ECMWF and NAM also now depict sfc cyclogenesis offshore of the OBX Sunday and the low lingers offshore through Monday on the ECMWF. Should this occur, marine impacts could be more significant and/or longer than currently depicted in the forecast. Suffice to say there is low confidence in the specifics during this period and users and encouraged to keep updated on forecast updates over the next couple of days. Regardless, Gale headlines seem quite likely at some point, but will continue to hold off on any watches due to the later timing and aforementioned confidence reasons. Seas are also expected to increase substantially and could possibly exceed 6-9 ft. Winds/seas should begin to gradually subside after Monday. && .CLIMATE... Daily Record High Temperatures have already been established at area climate sites: 10/14 RIC 87/1975 (Already Broken: High of 90 as of 3 pm/Wed) ORF 86/1975 (Already Broken: High of 88 as of 3 pm/Wed) SBY 86/1975 (Already Broken: High of 89 as of 3 pm/Wed) ECG 86/1975 (Already Broken: High of 88 as of 3 pm/Wed) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ632- 634-654. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650- 652. && $$ DISCUSSION...MAM/RHR AVIATION...KMC/MAM MARINE...SW CLIMATE...  513 FXUS62 KTAE 142328 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 728 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 728 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Above normal temperatures in the mid-80s to near 90 for this work week with little to no chance for rain expected. - Marine conditions will quickly deteriorate on Friday night following passage of a sharp cold front with an increasing potential for gale-force wind gusts this weekend. && .SHORT TERM & LONG TERM... (This Evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 High pressure both at the surface and aloft will keep conditions dry but also a bit toasty through much of the week with high temperatures forecast in the mid 80s to near 90 through Friday. Late Friday and Friday night, a fairly strong cold front is forecast to rapidly push southeastward through the area, ushering in a drier and cooler air mass in its wake. Dry conditions persisting ahead of the front will preclude any precipitation developing except perhaps over the Gulf waters. High temperatures are forecast in the 70s across the area on Saturday with low temperatures in the low 50s to near 60 overnight Saturday night. The gradient will remain fairly tight in the wake of the front as well, leading to breezy conditions remaining over the weekend and into next week. As winds become more easterly Sunday and beyond, a slow but gradual warming and moistening trend is forecast to take hold. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 728 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period. Some brief restrictions are possible around VLD and ECP for a few hours around sunrise due to patchy fog. Winds will be light. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Tranquil boating conditions expected into Friday with daily sea breezes. On Friday night, a cold front will blast across the waters, ushering in a sharp increase in fresh to strong northerly breezes with near gale to gale-force wind gusts. Winds are expected to remain elevated into next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Fair dispersions are expected again Thursday before dramatically increasing on Friday ahead of a strong cold front. Dry conditions are expected to continue with minRH percentage values in the mid-30s to mid 40s. Light transport winds of 5-10 mph generally out of the east can be expected through Thursday, then clocking around to the west and increasing on Friday ahead of a cold front. A strong cold frontal passage is expected Friday night, with breezy conditions to follow this weekend. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to around 90 through Friday, the decreasing to the 70s this weekend. No rainfall is expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 With the recent rainfall, several rivers are observed/forecast in action stage. The Choctawhatchee River at Bruce may eventually go into minor flood, but confidence is a bit on the lower side for now. No additional rainfall or flooding is expected over the upcoming week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 65 89 66 88 / 0 0 0 10 Panama City 67 86 68 85 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 64 87 64 85 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 64 88 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 64 88 66 87 / 0 0 0 10 Cross City 66 88 69 88 / 0 0 0 20 Apalachicola 71 82 70 83 / 0 0 10 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Merrifield LONG TERM....Merrifield AVIATION...DVD MARINE...Merrifield FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield HYDROLOGY...Merrifield  790 FXUS61 KCAR 142331 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 731 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - 7:31PM UPDATE...00z TAF Update. See aviation section below. && .KEY MESSAGES... - A strong system Friday through Saturday is expected to bring widespread rain with some snow over the North Friday/Friday night and strong winds Friday night into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong system Friday through Saturday is expected to bring widespread rain with some snow over the North Friday/Friday night and strong winds Friday night into Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A strong low pressure system is expected to develop over the Great Lakes, then move east towards the state this weekend. This system is expected to bring widespread precip to the region Friday. As of this update, ensemble solutions are gradually converging on a track through the center of the state but there are still groupings of members wanting to take the track north and south of the area. The track through the area is relatively favorable for some snowfall in northern areas as winds will have an easterly component, preventing substantial warm air from advecting into the area. Most areas that see snow will probably see less than an inch but a few areas near the canadian border might reach an inch or possibly two. Snow amounts are likely to be terrain dependent with higher elevations receiving the greater amounts. Some slick roads possible Friday night as temperatures drop to around freezing. Snow showers are likely to persist into Saturday with strong, gusty winds up to 40 mph. Along with temperatures in the 30s this is likely to result in wind chills dipping into the 20s. Isolated power outages are possible. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 00z TAF UPDATE... Northern Terminals (KFVE, KCAR, KPQI, KHUL): Tonight: MVFR cigs early (brief IFR at KFVE with BKN007) gradually lift overnight, with isolated showers ending early. P6SM vsby throughout. NW winds around 5 to 10 kt increase late, gusting up to 20 to 25 kt. LLWS develops overnight with 2,000 ft winds out of the NW at 40 to 45 kt. Tomorrow: Low clouds scatter out to VFR by 11z-13z, becoming FEW150 by late afternoon/evening. NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts 25 to 30 kt, easing to 10 to 15 kt by evening. LLWS ends mid-to-late morning. Southern Terminals (KBGR, KBHB): Tonight: VFR with cigs around 3,500 ft scattering out late. P6SM vsby throughout. NW winds 5 to 10 kt increase overnight, gusting up to 20 kt. LLWS develops overnight with 2,000 ft winds out of the NW at 35 to 45 kt. Tomorrow: VFR through the day with FEW high clouds. NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to around 10 kt by evening. LLWS ends during the morning. Thursday night...VFR. WNW winds 5kts becoming calm overnight. Friday - Saturday...MVFR/IFR possible in rain, and possibly snow mixing in over the north. MVFR over the north Saturday with snow showers. SE winds 10 to 15 kts Friday, increasing to 15 to 20 kts out of the NW Saturday with gusts up to 35 kts. Saturday night - Sunday...VFR. WNW winds 10-20 kts. Monday...VFR. S winds 5-10 kts. && .MARINE... SCA continues through 14z Thursday for coastal ocean waters with nw winds gusting to 30kts and seas between 4-6 feet. Intracoastal likely to see small craft conditions between 07 and 14z Thursday. Outer waters will see gale force winds between 07-14z Thu before diminishing. Conditions to drop below small craft through Thursday night. Below SCA winds and seas Thursday night through Friday morning on the coastal and intracoastal waters, then winds and seas increase to SCA criteria on all waters Friday afternoon, becoming gales on all waters Friday night, persisting through Saturday. Winds decrease to SCA criteria Sunday. Seas peak at 11 to 13 ft on the outer waters and 6 to 9 ft on the coastal waters early Saturday. Winds and seas should be below SCA levels on Monday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ052. Gale Warning from 3 AM to 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ080-081. && $$ DISCUSSION...21/ARL/JS/CM AVIATION...21/ARL/JS/CM  834 FXUS63 KABR 142332 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 632 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain spreads north and east into the region this evening, mainly staying south of Hwy 12. - Northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph are expected to develop Thursday afternoon and evening across central and north central South Dakota. A Wind Advisory has been issued. These winds combined with drier air will also push Grassland Fire Danger into the High category Thursday afternoon. && .UPDATE... Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Plenty of clouds remain, with light showers or sprinkles over north central SD with another round nearing out south central SD counties. No significant changes are anticipated this evening, with Wind Advisories in place for Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 There is a lot of uncertainty regarding temperatures and precipitation over the next two days. Temperatures will, in part, ride on cloud cover, and models have been struggling with the current stratus deck east of the Missouri River. An upper trough/low dips into ND Thursday as almost a cut-off low swings into the central and southern plains. At the sfc, a weak low pressure system moves into the central plains with an H7 low farther north over Nebraska somewhat embedded and stacked in the cut-off trough. This is farther south than previous runs and may keep any rain south of the Hwy 212 corridor but definitely south of Hwy 12. As the sfc low moves in MO on Thursday, drier mid level air pushes in from the northwest across SD on the leading edge of a sfc high. This drier air coupled with the troughing aloft will usher in caa and cause northwest winds to gust 35 to 50 mph across the area in the afternoon and evening. A wind advisory has been issued for portions of central and north central SD. For now, have it ending at 5z Friday, but may need a headline farther east for the remainder of the night given the 45 to 50 kt winds at 850mb. The Coteau, at least, could remain very gusty through the early morning hours given the pressure gradient in the east and the 90 kt jet. Given the strength of the winds, unsure how low temps will fall Friday morning as H85 temps fall into the negative single digits. The caa and the winds could cancel each other out, or we may end up needing some freeze headlines. With the winds on Thursday and min RH around 35 to 45 percent across central SD, may also need to consider impact fire headlines where fuels are burnable. Highs pressure builds in on Friday with a ridge transitioning over the Rockies and Plains on Saturday. Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected Saturday through the first half of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Expect VFR conditions to continue at PIR/MBG, with MVFR ceilings until 06Z at ABR, and through much of the morning hours at ATY. Other than the MVFR conditions, increasing winds out of the northwest will be a concern Thursday afternoon with gusts nearing 30kts at ABR/ATY, and near 40kts at PIR/MBG. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Thursday to midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ Thursday night for SDZ003>005-009-010-015- 016-033>035-045-048. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...06 DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...06  795 FXUS65 KABQ 142331 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 531 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 512 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - The first freeze of the season for the upper Rio Grande Valley, including Taos, is forecast late tonight into Thursday morning. - A backdoor cold front will sweep south and west across the area Thursday, creating strong north winds across eastern NM on Thursday and strong east canyon or gap winds into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys Thursday evening. - The first freeze of the season is forecast Thursday night for areas from Raton, to Las Vegas, to Moriarty and Clines Corners. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 152 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 The upper low now just north of the Four Corners will continue to influence NM weather over the next 36 hours. This upper low will continue to shift northeastward over CO through early Thursday. A dry slot has rounded the high and punched through NM from SW to NE as evident on satellite imagery. Thus, storms will continue to decrease in coverage through the afternoon, however, a few storms will persist across north central NM just ahead of the upper low, while others may form near the OK or TX border and quickly shift northeastward into TX. Rainfall amounts will continue to be light. Otherwise, breezy to locally windy conditions will persist through early evening as a Pacific cold front moves from west to east across the area. Southwest winds will gradually become more westerly across central and western NM and gusts between 25 and 40 mph will be common. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front over NE NM this morning will continue to loiter over the area today, keeping temperatures up to 20 degrees colder than yesterday around KCAO. Speaking of temps, high temperatures across western NM will be 10 to 15 degrees colder than yesterday as well. Surface winds will become more northwesterly this evening and overnight across central and western NM, and a few breezes will persist, especially around KCQC. However, winds are expected to drop off overnight across the upper Rio Grande Valley. Strong radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop below freezing for the first time in this area, including around Taos. A Freeze Warning remains in effect for this zone. As the aforementioned upper low shifts into the northern Great Plains, the backdoor cold front loitering around NE NM will be reinforced with a stronger front. This reinforcement will enter NE NM Thursday morning before quickly sliding southward across the plains. With H7 winds increasing to between 45 and 50kt during the aftn, confidence is high that strong winds will be noted behind the front across NE NM. A Wind Advisory has been issued for this area from noon to midnight for wind gusts between 50 and 55 mph. This Wind Advisory may be expanded southward for strong winds Thursday evening and into the overnight hours, especially around Curry and Roosevelt counties, but cannot rule out much of eastern NM. Of greater confidence continues to be strong winds below gaps in the Rio Grande Valley and upper Tularosa Valley as the front pushes through the Central Mountain Chain Thursday night. Wind gusts between 50 and 65 mph remain likely with the peak winds generally between 9pm and midnight. MET and MAV wind guidance have been trending downward for winds at KABQ, which may result in the High Wind Watch becoming a Wind Advisory for the metro with gusts of 50-55 mph, but confidence is higher that it will become a High Wind Warning farther south with gusts of 58-65 mph. Will let the night crew take another look before deciding how to upgrade the watch. Regardless of the eventual product, it continues to look very windy.The front will also usher in much cooler temperatures. The first freeze of the season is expected from areas from Raton, to Las Vegas, to Moriarty and Clines Corners Thursday night. Western Union County will likely also see freezing temperatures. Santa Fe will be close as well, but should stay just above freezing. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 152 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Friday's high temperatures will be 5 to 20 degrees below normal areawide following the backdoor front. Winds will slowly decrease during the morning hours, though breezy conditions will persist through the rest of the day. A widespread freeze is expected Friday night under excellent radiational cooling conditions. For those areas that will freeze tonight and/or Thursday night, a hard freeze is likely Friday night. Though the ABQ Sunport will likely stay above freezing, areas around KAEG and Belen may see sub-freezing temperatures. KROW, KTCC, Socorro and KFMN will be close to freezing, but could stay just above. While the upper low mentioned above shifted toward the northern Great Plains, a baggy trough that was left behind closed into a low and retrograded to the west of northern Baja California. Over the weekend and into Monday, this feature will weaken and gradually shift northeastward. A few showers or thunderstorms may develop across western NM each day but coverage will be spotty at best. Temperatures will gradually rise back toward normal by Monday. All eyes will then be on the next upper low that dives southward along the west coast Tuesday. Depending on it's position, moisture may increase with enhanced southerly flow, or if the low is too far west, weak ridging may dominate NM. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 512 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 A cold front will continue moving across the state from west to east, with southwest winds shifting around to the northwest. Winds will taper off in western areas overnight, with a brisk north breeze for most central and eastern areas. MVFR to IFR cigs are present across the northeast as of 00Z, although these will likely remain confined to the far northeast between now and around 12Z. A backdoor front will move in from the northeast after 12Z, surging south and westward overnight through the afternoon. North to northeast wind gusts of 30 to 50 knots are likely in its wake, with gusty winds reaching the RGV around the end of the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 152 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Main fire weather concerns are strong winds through early Friday followed by poor ventilation over the weekend into early next week. Breezy to windy southwest to west winds will persist through the rest of the afternoon. Winds will turn northwesterly and weaken this evening and overnight. On Thursday, a strong backdoor cold front will slide down the eastern plains before pushing westward through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain Thursday evening. Northerly wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph are expected across eastern NM, while easterly gusts between 50 and 65 mph are expected below gaps in the Rio Grande Valley. Winds will slowly decrease through Friday morning, but will remain breezy through Friday aftn. Temperatures will be below normal areawide on Friday. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible across western NM this weekend into Monday, otherwise temperatures will gradually climb back to normal through the period. Considerable uncertainty exists Tuesday and beyond. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 36 62 36 64 / 5 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 28 61 27 64 / 5 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 31 60 33 58 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 30 59 32 62 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 28 59 33 57 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 31 60 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 32 63 35 57 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 38 61 36 55 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 33 60 33 53 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 34 69 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 39 74 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 28 53 28 57 / 20 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 37 58 36 57 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 36 62 32 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 31 57 29 58 / 5 0 0 0 Red River....................... 24 48 22 50 / 10 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 21 54 17 52 / 5 0 0 0 Taos............................ 30 60 27 60 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 32 57 28 55 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 36 66 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 38 62 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 37 65 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 42 68 42 63 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 43 69 43 63 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 40 70 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 43 69 41 63 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 42 70 43 66 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 40 69 41 65 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 40 70 41 66 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 41 70 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 42 70 43 66 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 41 67 40 62 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 42 68 42 65 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 45 71 42 66 / 0 0 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 36 62 36 56 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 38 65 38 58 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 36 64 35 57 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 34 66 32 59 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 36 60 29 53 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 36 63 34 55 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 37 64 34 53 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 45 69 41 57 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 41 63 34 50 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 36 53 28 51 / 20 0 0 0 Raton........................... 34 57 31 54 / 20 0 0 0 Springer........................ 35 61 30 58 / 5 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 33 59 29 55 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 42 59 34 54 / 40 0 0 0 Roy............................. 40 61 34 56 / 5 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 46 70 42 62 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 46 68 40 58 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 46 71 41 60 / 5 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 49 69 38 58 / 10 0 0 0 Portales........................ 48 70 39 59 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 50 71 42 60 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 50 76 44 62 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 46 72 40 57 / 0 0 5 0 Elk............................. 44 70 38 54 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from noon Thursday to midnight MDT Thursday night for NMZ227-228-230-231. Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for NMZ222-223-228>230. High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for NMZ219-220-224-225. Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM MDT Thursday for NMZ216. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...16  789 FXUS65 KVEF 142331 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 431 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Gusty north-northwesterly winds expected Thursday and Friday with gust speeds between 40 and 50 mph. * Precipitation chances return to the region Tuesday and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday. Gusty north winds generally between 20 and 30 mph continue today as a closed low weakens into an open wave and lifts eastward out of the area. On Thursday, energy left behind from the aforementioned open wave will combine with a vort lobe riding along the leftover northwesterly flow aloft and will close off over southeastern California. This will bring with it a 65-75 kt jet and corresponding surface north-northeasterly wind gusts between 40 and 50 mph. This trajectory of winds will result in easterly downslope winds, which could bring occasional gusts between 50 and 60 mph to locations nestled in valleys along the eastern flanks of area mountains including Interstate 40 east of the Hualapai Mountains in southern Mohave County and Highway 160 in Pahrump. As a result, the Wind Advisory in place for the Colorado River Valley, southern Clark County, and eastern San Bernardino County from 8 AM Thursday through 11 AM Friday has been expanded to include Death Valley National Park, the Clark County Mountains, far southern Nye County, and most of Mohave County. Confidence continues to increase that the closed low over southern California will usher moisture from Hurricane Simon into the region over the weekend. Ensemble means indicate that PWATs will increase to around 0.75 inches across the Mojave Desert and will stick around into early next week. That said, without instability, this moisture is unlikely to bring precipitation... However, a longwave trough is progged to swing into central California early next week, which will provide the aforementioned instability needed to bring precipitation chances back to the forecast area. Right now, there are 30 to 40 percent chances of precipitation on Tuesday and Wednesday areawide with snow levels between 8000 and 9000 feet. Stay tuned as this forecast develops and confidence increases through the week. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Northeasterly to easterly winds around 8-10KT will become light and variable after sunset, shifting to the northwest overnight. Mid-morning Thursday, gusty northerly winds return, with gusts to 20-25KT increasing to 25-30KT as winds veer to the northeast by late morning. These winds then persist through the end of the forecast period. VFR conditions and clear skies prevail. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Gusty winds will diminish this evening, dropping to 5- 10KT overnight across the region. Gusty northerly to northeasterly winds resume areawide by Thursday morning, with gusts to 25-30KT common thereafter, with the strongest winds gusting to 35-40KT expected along the Lower Colorado River Valley from KIFP to KEED late morning onward. Northeasterly gusts will hold off across the western Mojave Desert/KDAG until early afternoon, with gusts there closer to 20KT. VFR conditions and clear skies prevail. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Soulat AVIATION...Phillipson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  913 FXUS61 KBUF 142334 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 734 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Widespread rain Thursday night through Friday. 2) Much colder Friday night through Saturday night with a few wet snowflakes possible. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread rain Thursday night through Friday. Mainly dry weather will prevail tonight but we will see NW upslope clouds across the region. Dry weather to continue Thursday ahead of a weak low tracking towards the region which will bring a soaking rainfall to the region Thursday night. A period of widespread rain is expected Thursday night through Friday. A southern stream trough ejecting into the central Plains Thursday morning will phase with a strong northern stream trough over the Upper Midwest Thursday night, with associated strong mid/upper level forcing supporting a deepening surface low passing over the eastern Great Lakes Thursday night through early Friday. Strong forcing and moisture transport with this system will support rain overspreading the region from southwest to northeast Thursday night, with periods of rain continuing Friday through Friday evening. Rainfall amounts of 0.50" to 1.0" are likely with this system. It has been quite dry across much of the region over the past month, so this will be beneficial rain. There may be just enough instability (a few hundred J/kg of elevated instability) to support a few embedded thunderstorms as well, especially if the surface low tracks just north of the region. KEY MESSAGE 2...Much colder Friday night through Saturday night with a few wet snowflakes possible. The surface low will continue to deepen as it moves down the Saint Lawrence Valley Friday night, and then into the Canadian Maritimes Saturday. Strong cold advection within the sharp mid level trough will deliver the coldest airmass of the fall season thus far by late Friday night and Saturday. DPVA/height falls from the mid level trough and increasing lake induced instability will support the continuation of showers Friday night. The boundary layer may become cold enough to support a few wet snowflakes by late Friday night and Saturday morning. Despite strong lake induced instability, short fetch northwest flow and a rapidly drying airmass will keep the lake response muted and brief. In terms of the potential for the first wet snowflakes of fall, it will be a race between the drying airmass and arrival of sufficiently cold air. There is a low chance of a very minor coating of slush on the grass across high terrain Saturday morning, otherwise no accumulation and zero impact is expected. Any rain/snow showers will end by midday Saturday with ongoing drying and subsidence. Temperatures this period will be much cooler, with lows dropping into the 30s Friday night and only recovering to the 40s for highs Saturday. It will be blustery as well, with wind gusts in the 25-35 mph range Friday night through Saturday, and up to 45 mph along the lakeshores. Low temperatures will drop into the 30s again Saturday night, although winds may never become light enough to allow for frost formation. The cooldown will be very brief, with above average temperatures quickly returning early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mainly dry weather will prevail tonight, but upslope northerly flow will continue to support areas of low stratus. Expect MVFR CIGS in most areas overnight, with some IFR possible across higher terrain. Outlook... Thursday...VFR. Thursday night through Friday...MVFR/IFR with periods of rain. Windy. Saturday...Areas of MVFR CIGS with scattered rain/wet snow showersearly, improving to VFR. Sunday and Monday...VFR. && .MARINE... Elevated west-northwest flow will remain into this evening this afternoon, supporting Small Craft Advisory conditions in the nearshore zones from Hamlin Beach to north of Mexico Bay, and a moderate chop elsewhere. Winds and waves will subside overnight with Small Craft Advisory conditions ending. Winds will veer to the northeast late tonight through Thursday, with very choppy conditions continuing on both lakes, although winds and waves should remain just below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Low pressure will then move directly over the lower Great Lakes Thursday night through Friday. A much colder airmass will pour into the region behind this deepening low, with a period of high end Small Craft Advisory conditions (and possible gale force gusts) late Friday through early Saturday on the lower Great Lakes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ043>045. && $$ DISCUSSION...AR/TMA AVIATION...AR/TMA MARINE...TMA  885 FXUS64 KEWX 142333 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 633 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 622 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - A Flood Watch is in effect for Val Verde County Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. - Cooler air arrives behind a cold front early Friday with below normal temperatures to continue at least into early Monday. - Increasing high and low temperatures are forecast from Monday through the middle of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 The potential for flooding has increased over Val Verde County as a very moist airmass will be in place over West Texas and approaches our far western counties bringing multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. While rain chances begin over the southern Edwards Plateau tonight and continue through Friday morning, the main focus for heavy rain will be Thursday afternoon through Friday morning over Val Verde County. A Flood Watch has been issued for this timeframe for Val Verde County. Heavy rain will end throughout Friday morning as a cold front brings cooler and drier air to the area. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 110 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 A strong trough has pivoted over the Four Corners region today resulting in the upper ridge previously over the Texas Gulf to elongate and center itself over the southeastern US this afternoon. This has resulted in a push of low level moisture from the Gulf to move inland bringing low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances from the coastal plains towards the I-35 corridor through this evening. Any activity will likely be isolated or widely scattered so the majority will just see another hot, humid and breezy day. Drier air then moves over the eastern half of the forecast area tonight allowing for slightly "cooler" lows east but "warmer" conditions west. Additionally in the west, southwesterly flow aloft becomes more established today leading to increasing rain chances across the southern Edwards Plateau through the short term period. Ongoing rain in West Texas will move slightly further east tonight shifting a deep plume of moisture associated with Hurricane Simon in the Pacific towards the area. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms could occur through Friday morning in Val Verde County with some activity possibly bleeding into Edwards or Kinney Counties tonight. The majority of guidance keeps this band of heavy rain primarily in West Texas, but a few models do have some isolated totals around 4 inches into eastern Val Verde County. WPC highlights a level 1 of 4 risk for excessive rainfall tonight with a level 2 of 4 risk Thursday into Friday over Val Verde. A strong cold front gets sent our way late Thursday night or early Friday morning, advancing across the entire area by Friday morning. A line of showers may develop along the quickly moving front bringing low rain chances to much of the area through Friday morning, but pre-exisiting drier air over the area will greatly limit the amount of measurable precipitation received to a few hundredths to possibly a few tenths of an inch. Drier air behind the front will gradually end any ongoing precipitation in the western portion of the area once it moves through as well. More on our post- frontal conditions in the long term discussion. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 110 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 The front will either be entirely through or through the vast majority of South Central Texas by sunrise Friday morning as it tracks south across the state. Northerly wind quickly increases behind this feature while temperatures rapidly cool. There remains some variance in models on exactly how cool air behind the front is but hi-res guidance seems to favor a cooler solution than the global ensembles; therefore, have trended slightly cooler than the NBM with this update. Highs somewhere in the 60s north to possibly low 80s south are forecast Friday with windy conditions through the day. Gusty wind will gusts as high as 40 mph are expected Friday into Saturday morning, with a gradual weakening of winds Saturday into Sunday. A Wind Advisory during this time may be issued. Cooler and more Fall-like weather stick around through Monday morning with highs in the 60s or 70s and lows in the 40s or 50s. Ensemble guidance brings back warmer highs and lows for the start of the week into the mid-week period with some low PoPs over the area. Ridging is favored to build over the area during this time ahead of another trough in the west. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Remaining isolated SHRA near KAUS is weakening and should dissipate by about 03Z. Breezy southeast flow continues areawide but should weaken some overnight. This will allow low MVFR CIGs to redevelop with greater confidence at KSAT/KDRT. KAUS/KSSF may be near the eastern edge MVFR cloud deck once it establishes, so confidence in persistent MVFR there is lower. CIGs lift to VFR and break to FEW/SCT for most areas by 17Z tomorrow, but more persistent moisture favors potential FL025-FL040 cloud decks remaining at KDRT through 16/00Z. Winds during the afternoon will be weaker than they were Wednesday. A strong cold front is expected to bring a sharp shift to northerly winds just beyond the 00Z TAF period, early Friday morning. This wind shift and strong prevailing northerlies will likely be introduced in subsequent TAF cycles. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 70 90 64 72 / 10 0 30 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 68 90 64 73 / 10 10 30 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 69 89 65 73 / 10 10 30 0 Burnet Muni Airport 68 87 60 67 / 10 0 40 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 74 89 62 69 / 30 30 60 60 Georgetown Muni Airport 69 90 61 70 / 10 0 40 10 Hondo Muni Airport 70 91 64 75 / 10 10 30 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 68 90 64 73 / 10 10 30 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 68 91 66 75 / 0 0 30 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 71 89 66 73 / 10 10 20 0 Stinson Muni Airport 72 91 68 75 / 10 10 20 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for TXZ183. && $$ SHORT TERM...27 LONG TERM....27 AVIATION...Tran  023 FXUS62 KFFC 142337 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 737 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions will prevail through the next 7 days with temperatures warming to well above normal. - A strong cold front will bring noticeably cooler conditions this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 It's a beautiful afternoon out there with current temperature readings in the upper 70s to mid 80s areawide (low 70s in the mountains) under mostly sunny skies. Surface high pressure will remain just to our northeast resulting in mostly dry and warm temperatures across the forecast area through the short-term period (thru Thursday). Tonight temperatures will drop primarily in the 60s (upper 50s in the mountains) under mostly clear skies. Low-lying areas and mountain valleys may once again see some patchy fog lowering visibility early Thursday, but improvements are expected just after sunrise. Rinse and repeat forecast for Thursday, with daytime temperatures likely a tick warmer (1-2 deg) than today. && .LONG TERM... (Friday morning through next Tuesday) Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Well-above normal temperatures will persist for one more day to start the long term period. After beginning the morning with low temperatures in the low to mid 60s once again, highs on Friday afternoon are forecast to rise into the low to mid 80s in north Georgia and upper 80s in central Georgia. Over the course of the day, a strong low pressure system will move from the central Great Lakes towards the far northeast CONUS, advancing a strong cold front towards north Georgia. With little opportunity for deep moisture return ahead of this front, rain chances will be limited, with only some isolated showers in far north Georgia on Friday night. The front will quickly progress southward overnight, clearing the forecast area to the southeast by sunrise on Saturday. The big story for us is that a significantly cooler airmass will filter into the area in the wake of the front, giving us our first real taste of Fall for the year. Low temperatures on Saturday will be in the mid to upper 40s to the north of I-85 and in the 50s to the south. As cooler air becomes more established, afternoon highs will range from near 60 in the far northern tier to the low 70s in south-central Georgia. An upper level ridge will build over the eastern CONUS and the center of a strong surface high will move across the lower Midwest on Saturday night into Sunday. Strong radiational cooling under clear skies will lead to the coolest temperatures of the period early Sunday morning, with widespread 40s and even some upper 30s in the higher elevations of far northeast Georgia. As the surface high moves east of the Appalachians, a CAD wedge is forecast to keep highs limited to the low 60s in portions of northeast Georgia compared to mid to upper 60s elsewhere across the region. Breezy easterly winds will also be present within this wedge. A gradual warming trend will begin to start next week as the surface high moves into the west Atlantic and the aforementioned ridge becomes centered over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 722 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Clear skies with no precipitation or restrictions to VSBYS. Winds will stay mainly out of the W to NW with speeds in the 2 to 6kt range through the period. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Confidence high on all elements 01 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 61 88 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 64 87 65 84 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 60 85 59 80 / 00 0 0 Cartersville 61 88 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 63 89 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 64 87 64 83 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 63 90 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 60 88 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 60 88 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 63 87 64 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....King AVIATION...01  030 FXUS63 KTOP 142337 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 637 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - One more round of rain tonight into tomorrow morning. Additional amounts around or less than an inch for most. Some locally higher totals still possible towards Anderson County, where the Flood Watch remains in effect. - Much cooler and drier air arrives for Friday and the weekend. Frost/freeze potential Saturday morning across much of the area. - Trending milder again for early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Last night's convection has shunted the frontal boundary south of the area, with current surface obs placing it along a line from southeast KS into the TX Panhandle. Low stratus is locked in place north of the boundary, keeping temperatures nice and cool in the 50s to low 60s. Weak isentropic ascent is keeping some isolated showers and pockets of drizzle around, but rain coverage should be limited until the upper low begins to approach overnight. The heaviest rain still looks tied to a weak surface wave that will lift northeast across eastern KS. As mentioned yesterday, the extensive convection and heavy rain to our south over Oklahoma is often a setup that leads to a southward trend in QPF guidance. This appears to be such a case. Most guidance now keeps the strongest moisture advection and isentropic ascent - and thus the best chance for an additional 1-3 inches of rain - a bit to our southeast. Will keep Anderson County in the Flood Watch, especially since southern parts of the county saw a radar-estimated 2-3" of rain last night, but have trimmed out the rest of the watch. Elsewhere across the forecast area lesser amounts are expected, though the track of the upper low should still lead to widespread 0.25-0.5" amounts with pockets of slightly above 1". Temperatures tomorrow should rise into the 70s across east- central KS (south of wherever the surface low eventually tracks) but stay in the 60s to upper 50s elsewhere. The cold front trailing behind the surface low will pass through by Thursday evening, allowing temperatures and dewpoints to quickly drop overnight. Strong high pressure will push southeast across the Plains as a strong northern stream shortwave drops out of Canada and phases with the southern stream upper low. Strong CAA should keep Friday highs in the 50s. By Saturday morning, the high pressure will be nearly overhead. With strong radiational cooling amidst clear skies and light winds, temperatures should fall into the low/mid 30s area wide. The best chance at sub-freezing temperatures looks to be in favored low-lying areas north of Interstate 70. Will likely need Frost/Freeze headlines at some point, though will wait another day or so to figure out exact areas. After high pressure passes off to our east later Saturday, we'll see a gradual trend back to warmer temperatures as ridging builds back over the central/eastern CONUS. Expecting highs back in the 70s by Monday and Tuesday. Still can't rule out a brief shower sometime Monday with a weak shortwave passing through, but overall rain chances look low through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 631 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Patchy drizzle and light fog will develop through the evening hours and continue over night. An upper level trough will move through during the mid morning and early afternoon hours of THU, providing for periods of light rain. I cannot rule out an elevated thunderstorm but the probability for thunderstorms look to be under 25 percent. Ceilings will drop down to IFR-VLIFR levels through the evening hours and through most of the day tomorrow. A cold front will move across the terminals during the early afternoon hours, switchingthe winds to the northwest at 11 to 13 KTS, with gusts of 19 to 23 KTS. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for KSZ059. && $$ DISCUSSION...Reese AVIATION...Gargan  954 FXUS64 KBMX 142336 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 636 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 632 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026 - Record Highs: Temperatures will be well above normal this week, with medium to high chances of record high temperatures. - Fall Weather: A cold front will move through the region Friday into Saturday, bringing cooler temperatures and breezy conditions to the area for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1231 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026 High temperatures remain in record territory today and tomorrow due to an anomalous area of high pressure. Meanwhile, the interaction of mid-level troughs (one near Alberta, Canada and one near the Four Corners, U.S.A.) will nudge the high pressure system eastward, setting us up for the arrival of a refreshing front. Temperatures will be a few degrees lower on Friday, but still above what we'd expect for mid-October, before readings take a dive. From about mid Friday into the evening, the front is forecast to sweep across central Alabama. The front will be moisture-starved, with forecast soundings indicating passing clouds and a limited prospect for showers. This is matched by a few models that show scant precipitation echoes, which could end up being in the form of virga or a very light, brief shower at most. By far the most noticeable effects from this front will be the arrival of a breezy/gusty northwest to north wind and cooler air. The current forecast reflects sustained winds as high as 20 mph with gusts near 30 mph, especially from mid Friday afternoon into Saturday. A lingering but not-as-windy east breeze is forecast for Sunday. Secure your Halloween decor! Weekend high temperatures in the 60s (to near 70 for some) and low temperatures in the 40s should satisfy fans of autumn. Clear weather is currently projected heading into next week with temperatures trending upward from the weekend, but near seasonal normals. 89^GSatterwhite && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026 VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with surface ridging in place and light/variable to near calm winds. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and dry conditions are expected to continue through the end of the week with MinRHs dropping into the low 30% range for many locations. A dry cold front will move through the area Friday into Saturday leading to gusty winds, little to no rainfall, and much drier and cooler conditions behind the front. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 110 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026 Record High Temperatures: Wed Oct. 14: KBHM: 89/1984 KEET: 89/2016 KANB: 88/1975 KTCL: 90/1962 KMGM: 91/1883 Thu Oct. 15: KBHM: 90/1897 KEET: 92/2025 KANB: 87/1975 KTCL: 91/1962 KMGM: 92/1881 Fri Oct. 16: KBHM: 90/1897 KEET: 90/2025 KANB: 87/1965 KTCL: 90/1962 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 61 88 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 61 88 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 64 89 63 85 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 61 91 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 61 88 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 63 87 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 61 88 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 61 88 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...89^GSatterwhite AVIATION...08  977 FXUS64 KLUB 142336 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 636 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 620 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Risk for flash flooding off the Caprock continues through tonight. - Some severe storms this afternoon off the Caprock. - Cold front Thursday delivers brisk northerly winds and diminishing rain chances. - Light freeze is possible Saturday morning for areas on the Caprock. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1143 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Another round of severe storms is brewing for later this afternoon and evening off the Caprock accompanied by more flooding potential. The big picture showed an upper low atop the Four Corners at 11 AM and models are keen to move this over northeast Colorado by daybreak Thursday. Compared to yesterday, broader height falls are now underway over our area within weakly cyclonic SW flow aloft. This along with an axis of upper difluence has maintained a broad plume of mid-level clouds that will curb high temps over everywhere except the far southern Rolling Plains where highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s remain in store. A cold front snuck south ahead of schedule in northern Parmer County, but this is already stalling and should not make much additional headway south until Thursday morning. High temps today were lowered near this front with widespread clouds holding tight. As the upper low and stronger height falls advance east later today, we expect the main axis of lift to remain just east of I-27 and Highway 87 closer to a pool of rich PWATs around 1.7" with 850 mb dewpoints in the mid 60s, something not too common in these parts. Given potential for training cells on top of areas that have already had multiple inches worth of rain, flooding remains in the picture through this evening. The strongest instability to the tune of 2000- 3500 J/kg of SBCAPE focuses just off the Caprock this afternoon along the eastern flank of thicker clouds. Similar to yesterday's efficient hailers, today's setup is not much different with generally straight hodographs and ample CAPE in the -10C to -30C layer, both of which are favorable for large hail production. Low LFCs and some hodograph kinking in the immediate low levels may again give rise to brief low-level mesos and a tornado risk. The severe threat looks to depart from the Rolling Plains by 9-11 PM ahead of increased mid-level drying/subsidence, although this drying struggles to make much headway through the southern 1/3 or so of the CWA where we'll keep some PoPs through Thursday. Brisk northerly winds sweep south with the front through the afternoon effectively ending rain chances over all but the southern Rolling Plains. We'll be monitoring for fog and/or drizzle on Thursday in the wake of the front as the NBM has been underperforming with this so far today in the TX Panhandle. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1143 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 As the cold front sweeps out of the area Thursday night taking rain chances with it, crisp autumn weather takes over on blustery north winds and much drier air. Low stratus initially in the post-frontal layer will scour out on Friday, but skies will be partly to mostly cloudy under a stubborn plume of high clouds. Even without the high clouds, high temps look capped in the 50s which sets the stage for a chilly night as the high clouds clear and north winds go calm. Latest MOS and NBM probs are trending colder everywhere with a light freeze not out of the question for much of the Caprock, which is 1-2 weeks ahead of schedule for many locales. High temps remain below normal through the weekend under weak upper ridging before slowly recovering next week ahead of the next slow-moving upper low that is favored to direct another plume of subtropical moisture our way. Rain chances gear up by mid week and continue thereafter with near normal temps. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 There is currently ongoing storms affecting KCDS which will continue through mid evening. There exists a low end chance of additional convection to move through all three terminals around midnight, but confidence is low. Activity looks to clear out by the morning. A cold front will bring winds around the NW by late morning tomorrow along with improving flight conditions. Combs && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ025-026-031-032-037- 038-043-044. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...26  091 FXUS61 KCLE 142339 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 739 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...00z TAF Aviation Forecast Update... .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Included falling temperatures in the forecast through the day Friday. Wind gusts have trended down slightly. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening into early Friday. A few stronger storms are possible with wind gusts to 50 mph. 2) A cold front will cross the area Friday bringing strong gusty winds and showery conditions. 3) The coldest air of the season will arrive this weekend and a mix of frost/freeze conditions are expected on Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A few showers will exit to the south through this evening. A cold front extends from near Pittsburgh to north of Columbus at 3 PM and will continue to move south tonight as high pressure builds across the Upper Great Lakes. Scattered thunderstorms have filled in towards Columbus and should mostly remain south of the local area. Thursday will be dry to start the day. Low pressure is expected to track out of the Mid-Mississippi Valley towards lower Michigan by Thursday evening. Initially there will be a dry low level flow out of the east with isentropic ascent increasing aloft during the afternoon. Showers will spread west to late afternoon through the evening as the warm front lifts north to near Lake Erie. A few thunderstorms will also be possible during the evening, especially across the north near the front. The Storm Prediction Center does have a Marginal Risk of Severe Thunderstorms highlighted across portions of northern Ohio. The timing for this risk is late Thursday night with any thunderstorms occurring along or just ahead of the cold front generally after 2 AM Friday. The wind field will be strong initially with 40-45 knots of sheer aloft. The limiting factor for thunderstorms will be instability with surface based CAPE of only a few hundred joules. Have adjusted the forecast to indicate a non-diurnal temperature trend with temperatures peaking on Friday during the early morning hours ahead of the cold front. Even without thunderstorms, some stronger wind gusts may accompany showers and there is potential for a few wind gusts of 40-50 mph. KEY MESSAGE 2... Low pressure will continue across the eastern Great Lakes on Friday, pulling a strong cold front east across the local area. Showers will accompany the front crossing the area during the morning. Strong cold air advection will occur behind the front with 850mb temperatures falling by about 10C between 06-18Z Friday. The surface low however is not as deep as previous runs and the upper level trough remains positively tilted and elongated to the deep south as it crosses the Central Great Lakes. Mixing depths behind the front on Friday are only up to about 4K feet with winds of 30-35 knots through that depth. Wind gusts of 30-35 mph are expected through the day on Friday with temperatures falling into the 50s by afternoon. A secondary trough swings south across Lake Erie during the evening with winds shifting from northwest to northerly. This is the window of strongest winds on Lake Erie and lakeshore areas will see winds gusting to 35-45 mph Friday night. In addition, this secondary trough will result in a flare up of lake enhanced rain showers. Coverage of showers will be fairly high for several hours then becoming focused across north central Ohio overnight as winds shift around to the north/northeast. This includes flow off Lake Huron which prolong scattered showers through Friday night and extended a low chance pop into Saturday morning for favored areas. KEY MESSAGE 3... The coldest air of the season arrives behind the cold front. Temperatures at 850mb will range from -2 to -6C at 12Z Saturday before gradually starting to rebound over the weekend as the trough shifts east. Temperatures on Friday night will tend to bottom out in the upper 30s for inland portions of northern Ohio but may reach the lower 30s in Northwest Pennsylvania. In general expecting precipitation to fall as nearly all rain as we lose ice in the cloud aloft late tonight. High pressure builds overhead Saturday into Saturday night which will result in a favorable radiational cooling set-up. Saturday night lows are forecast to be near freezing for much of inland northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. This may result in frost or the first freeze of the season and potentially end the growing season for some locations. && .AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... The main message for aviation weather is to expect generally MVFR ceilings for the majority of this time period. We are starting out this evening with conditions ranging from VFR around TOL and elsewhere mostly MVFR ceilings. MFD is seeing lower IFR ceilings at this time and may hold onto IFR few more hours this evening. We do expect MFD to see gradual improvement to low end MVFR ceilings after 03z. Now through Thursday morning, expected mainly MVFR to lower end MVFR ceilings to persist for northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. Some additional improvement to VFR ceilings 3500 feet or higher is expected after 18z at MFD, FDY, CAK, and YNG Thursday midday/afternoon. ERI may see VFR ceilings sooner after 15z Friday morning. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with a cold front may potentially impact TAF sites after 00z Friday evening. Winds are starting out northerly 5 to 10 knots and will become northeasterly overnight. The surface flow will eventually become easterly up to 10 knots Thursday. Outlook...Non-VFR will be likely Thursday evening through Friday night. Gusty winds exceeding 30 knots will be likely behind a cold front Friday possibly lingering into the Friday evening. && .MARINE... Northeast winds of 15-20 knots are expected overnight. Waves generally build to 2 to 5 feet with the highest wave heights expected from the Islands to Willowick where a Small Craft Advisory has been issued between 10 PM and 6 AM tonight. Winds veer around to the south on Thursday evening as a warm front lifts north and southwest winds increase to 25-30 knots overnight. A strong cold front comes through in two segments on Friday, first with a wind shift to the west/northwest Friday morning, then a shift to the north with a stronger push of cold air Friday night. Backed off on winds slightly with this system with only a brief period of gales now forecast for Friday night as the strength of the low pressure system has trended weaker and farther to the east. Will still monitor trends as we are close to gale force and may still need a warning for at least a portion of Lake Erie. Small Craft Advisories will be needed through most of Saturday as waves are slower to come down. Otherwise high pressure builds overhead for the remainder of the weekend with improving marine conditions. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ144>146. && $$ DISCUSSION...10 AVIATION...77 MARINE...10  053 FXUS63 KDTX 142338 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 738 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures closer to normal and drier today, followed by additional rainfall late Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning. - A strong cold front delivers gusty winds and much chillier conditions Friday, with a few showers in spots. - Turing drier through the weekend with slightly warmer readings by Sunday. && .AVIATION... High pressure will slide across Lake Superior overnight, reaching eastern Ontario Thursday morning. This leads to veering low level winds, which redirects low level moisture back into SE Michigan to maintain a mix of low VFR and MVFR conditions through the TAF period. Low pressure organizes over the Plains Thursday morning and then lifts northeast into the Great Lakes region by Thursday night. Increasing southeast flow emerges ahead of the low with potential for shower development as the elevated warm front lifts in. There is a low chance for an elevated thunderstorm to develop as lapse rates approach 6.0 C/km above the inversion, although too low of confidence to include in the TAF at this time. Ceilings then lower into Thursday night. D21/DTW Convection...No thunderstorms before 22Z Thursday, low chance after 22z. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Medium for ceilings at or below 5000 feet this evening. High late tonight and Thursday. * Low for thunder after 22Z Thursday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 336 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 DISCUSSION... Sprawling area of high pressure centered over the Dakotas is funneling cold air southward into the Great Lakes behind last nights cold front. The combination of cold air advection lake clouds and warm frontal clouds had lead to a very clouds day across the state. Temps have been slow to rise much into the 60s thus far so dropped forecast highs a few degrees. Lows tonight will fall into the 40s but will be tempered by the blanket of clouds so chances of 30s are slim. Next chance of rain comes Thursday as a pair of strong systems, cutoff low from the 4 corners region and a deepening trough dropping out of Canada, phase over the Midwest before passing through the Great Lakes as an energetic positively tilted trough. Models are a little slower bringing the precip into SE MI, so pushed pops back til after noon. The center of the surface low was supposed to pass northeast through lower MI Thursday night, but as we get deeper into the window of CAMs, they are suggesting that there will be a secondary low farther east along the occluded front, staying just SE of MI, possible over Toledo. This doesn't do much for the expansive area of precipitation that will lift into the region along the warm conveyor belt, but it does bring convection into question, as this leading low looks to keep the instability gradient south of the area. CAPE values are coming in only around 100 J/kg or less in most model solutions. Will keep a mention of thunder in for now until we can more clearly define the area of convection, or placement of the surface warm front. QPF could range from a third to a half inch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Cold front will pass through early Friday pushing the brunt of the moisture out of the area but cold advection will initiate lake processes introducing additional moisture to any lingering wrap around moisture around the exiting low. In addition, cold advection will steepen lapse rates in the afternoon to around 10kft which will help scattered showers to develop. The deep mixing depths will also lead to a gusty day with winds solidly into the mid 20 knot range through the mixed layer throughout the day. Question is later in the evening as the upper level trough axis cross the area bringing a period of higher winds aloft into the 30-35 knot range. These winds could be mixed down briefly before we attempt to decouple so could see gusts increase around dusk for a few hours close to 40 mph. Friday night will be colder as thermal trough at 850mb dips down to between zero to -5C with skies clearing as high pressure builds back in. Friday highs only into the 50s will help lows drop into the 30s with many locations across the northern CWA possibly seeing temps below freezing. Longwave ridge over the western conus and trough over the east will both be positively tilted heading through the weekend which will help delay the advancing thermal ridge back into the region. Highs Saturday will hold int he 50s before beginning to moderate Sunday back into the low 60s. Looks like ridging will hold over the region much of next week providing another lengthy stretch of dry weather. MARINE... Moderate northwest wind continues this evening before weakening slightly and veering to easterly overnight as high pressure passes across the northern Great Lakes. An elevated wave field is forecast to clip the Lake Huron nearshore waters between Port Austin and Port Sanilac, and a Small Craft Advisory has been issued through tonight. Lighter wind takes on a southeast direction on Thursday ahead of a stronger low developing over the Midwest. This low will bring active marine weather Thursday night through Friday as it strengthens while tracking from southern Lake Michigan to the Ontario peninsula. A 40 to 50 kt southwesterly low-level jet targets western Lake Erie Thursday night. Profiles show strong low- level stability during this window, which will hold the bulk of the momentum aloft. Will hold off on gale headlines for this brief feature as wind gusts are forecast to max at 25 to 30 kt. Numerous to widespread showers will accompany the system Thursday night. A strong cold front will pass north to south across the region on Friday as the low departs to the east. Increasing instability and favorable fetch offer relatively high confidence to see northerly gusts to gale force on Lake Huron Friday afternoon and Friday night. Latest model data has trended slightly weaker with the wind field, so did cap the forecast gusts in the 35 to 40 kt range. A Gale Watch remains in effect for all of Lake Huron. Will continue to monitor the need to expand the watch into Lake St. Clair and western Lake Erie, but confidence remains too low at this time. Gusty northwest wind backs to west-southwest by Saturday as high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Gale Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LHZ441-442. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....MV DISCUSSION...DRK MARINE.......TF You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  047 FXUS64 KTSA 142338 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 638 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 628 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - A Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday afternoon for locations along and north of I-44 in northeast Oklahoma. - Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur through Thursday evening with periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall, especially this evening and overnight. - A few strong to severe storms will be possible this evening with the most likely area near and along I-40. - A cold front will bring much cooler and pleasant weather by Friday and into the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Convectively-driven outflow continues pushing into southern Oklahoma and north Texas early this afternoon with the boundary looping northeast from northern Pushmataha county to south of Fort Smith. Temperatures south of the boundary were in the mid to upper 80s with rain- cooled 60s and 70s north of it. The main synoptic front is masked by outflow but appears to run from western Oklahoma along I-40 to near Enid to central Missouri. Radar shows an extensive, mostly stratiform rain shield across Oklahoma north of I-40 with more broken, convective showers along and north of the outflow boundary from McAlester into northwest Arkansas. Overall trends have been fairly steady with the intensity and strength of the showers with mostly isolated thunderstorms remaining along the southern periphery forced by the outflow moving into more unstable air. Expect some intensification of storms as this area moves east across eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas this evening. Since most of the convection is north of the boundary, the overall severe threat will remain limited though stronger storms could produce strong winds. The tornado threat will remain non-zero along and immediately north of the boundary where low level shear is enhanced and instability is greatest. Additional storms developing across northwest Texas will lift north across Oklahoma this evening and move into northeast Oklahoma by 03Z. Elevated instability ahead of this activity will maintain the cluster with potential heavy rainfall rates spreading into the area currently covered by the Flood Watch. As the main upper low over southwest Colorado ejects northeast overnight, large scale ascent will aid in development of another large area of showers and storms which will move east into the area late tonight through early Thursday morning. Additional rainfall amounts of 1-2" with localized amounts of 3-4" are targeted to fall across northeast Oklahoma north of I-44 within the current Flood Watch. As we saw last night in central Oklahoma, intense rainfall rates and training could easily push totals in excess of 5" locally. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 A break in activity to the west is expected as the morning convection moves east into eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas with a gradual lessening in intensity and rainfall amounts with time. Enough of a lull may exist for instability to return across the area as the main cold front moves through late afternoon into the evening Thursday. Additional scattered showers and storms are expected to accompany the front though wind fields will be sub-par and updrafts will be undercut reducing the severe threat. Small hail or occasional wind gusts will be the main threat with stronger updrafts. Dry and much cooler air will move in behind the front starting Thursday night with our first real taste of fall weather as lows drop into the 40s and lower 50s. Strong northerly winds will be on tap forFriday with widespread gusts of 30 to 35 mph forecast. Later shifts may need to consider a wind advisory or yet, fire weather headlines across far southeast Oklahoma if earlier rainfall does not pan out. Afternoon highs both Friday and Saturday will be in the 50s and 60s before southerly winds return and a gradual warming trend begins into early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 There is a lull in the action currently, but the next round of showers and storms is taking shape across southwest OK. This area of showers and storms will spread northeast tonight. Storms that move into northeast Oklahoma may have gusty winds with them, so this was added to the TEMPO groups. Expect conditions to drop to MVFR or IFR as the storms blow through, generally near and for a few hours after 06Z. Uncertainty with storm impacts across SE OK and NW AR yields less confidence at those sites so PROB30s were used instead. Expect another break aft 15Z and until the front approaches in the afternoon. Included wind shift at the NE OK sites with a few showers possible. Farther to the south and east, included PROB30s for showers or storms ahead of the front at the tail end of the forecast. MVFR cigs may prevail for a time Thursday morning at many sites before returning to VFR Thursday afternoon. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 67 79 49 59 / 90 80 40 0 FSM 71 88 55 66 / 30 40 60 0 MLC 68 85 50 63 / 40 60 70 0 BVO 61 77 43 58 / 90 90 20 0 FYV 65 83 45 60 / 50 60 80 0 BYV 68 84 48 59 / 60 60 70 0 MKO 67 83 50 61 / 60 80 70 0 MIO 65 79 46 57 / 80 80 40 0 F10 67 81 50 60 / 70 80 60 0 HHW 68 87 56 65 / 20 10 30 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for OKZ055>061-064-154- 254-354. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...30  247 FXUS61 KOKX 142343 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 743 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Gale Watch issued for the ocean waters Friday night through Saturday afternoon. Updated Aviation for the 00Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cold front passes through this evening with a return to drier and and more seasonable conditions for tonight into Thursday. 2) A strong frontal system brings showers Thursday night into Friday morning and a second round of showers/isolated thunderstorms late Friday afternoon/evening. No significant impacts are anticipated at this time. 3) The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NW wind Friday night into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Cold front push offshore this evening. No showers are expected with the frontal passage. Cooler and drier air will advect into the region tonight on NW/N winds with a few gusts up to 25 mph possible. Lows will fall into the upper 40s inland and lower 50s closer to the coast. Seasonable and dry conditions are expected on Thursday with highs in the low to mid 60s. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A strong frontal system approaches Thursday night, with its associated warm front lifting north of the area Friday night. The trailing cold front will then move through the region Friday evening. The overall thinking has not changed with this system. Thermal forcing/warm advection quickly increase Thursday night, which will bring showers with the warm front passage into Friday morning. These showers will likely end mid to late morning with a lull in any activity. Rainfall amounts with this initial round of showers remain on the lighter side with average amounts a quarter inch or less. The region will then become warm sectored aiding in an slight increase in instability. Temperatures should be able to reach the 70s ahead of the cold front. Guidance is then signaling potential for a band of shallow convection, mainly in the form of showers, but a few embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. The only concern with this potential convection is from an isolated severe wind gust. Currently, SPC has much of the Day 3 marginal risk south of the area, where instability is expected to be higher. This line of convection will be fast moving, so any downpours will be short-lived. A few showers remain possible behind the front until around midnight as the upper trough lags to the west and continues to amplify. Much drier air returns for the second half of Friday night as the cold front moves offshore. Average rainfall amounts with the evening convection/lingering showers will be around a quarter inch although a few spots could be slightly higher locally. No rainfall impacts are expected at this time. .KEY MESSAGE 3... The main story Friday night into the weekend will be much colder and drier air. Strong, NW gusty winds will follow the cold front passage Friday night and continue through much of Saturday. Peak gusts 30-40 mph are expected, especially Friday night into the first half of Saturday. The pressure gradient begins to relax Saturday afternoon, so gusts should start to lower heading into the evening. One note is there has been a notable trend down in the low level wind field in the guidance over the last 24-36 hours. Winds at the top of the mixed layer are currently progged to peak around 35 kt Friday night into Saturday morning based on forecast sounding analysis. While cannot completely rule out the eventual need for a wind advisory (gusts greater than 45 mph but less than 58 mph), the probabilities seem to be decreasing based on latest trends. The other story will be the coldest air of the season so far. Temperatures will fall into the 40s areawide Friday night with the gusty NW flow. Highs on Saturday will struggle to rise above 50 degrees inland and only reach the lower 50s elsewhere. These highs are 10-15 degrees below normal for October 17. Winds should drop off Saturday night with a relaxed pressure gradient and high pressure building just to our west. Temperatures Saturday night could fall close to freezing with upper 30s to low 40s elsewhere. Some slight moderation is expected Sunday into Monday with temperatures potentially close to normal by Tuesday. High pressure remains in control so dry conditions will continue into early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Behind a cold frontal passage, high pressure builds in from the NW through Thursday. VFR. Some MVFR cigs may approach the terminals from the west toward 6Z on Friday along with some showers after 6Z. WSW winds will gradually veer around to the NW, then NNW behind the cold frontal passage into the first part of tonight. Occasional gusts are possible during the first half of tonight under the strongest cold air advection. Winds will then veer more northerly overnight and then NE Thursday morning. Winds continue to veer to the E and SE late Thursday afternoon and into Thursday evening. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts the first half of tonight could be more frequent. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Thursday night: Showers move in late with MVFR or lower cond. Friday: Showers. IFR conditions likely early, improving to VFR in the afternoon for the NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals. Eastern terminals, especially KGON could stay sub-VFR. SW winds G20- 25kt. Friday night: Showers and possibly a tstm in the evening with mainly MVFR conditions, then VFR. Cold frontal passage followed by W-NW winds G25-35kt. Saturday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G25-35 kt, diminishing in the evening. Sunday and Monday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... A period of marginal SCA conditions (occasional gusts to 25 kt) likely tonight on the ocean behind the cold front passage tonight into Thu AM, elsewhere nearshore waters should see gusts 20 kt. The flow relaxes Thursday morning into afternoon with conditions below SCA levels through Thursday night. S flow increases Friday morning as a warm front lifts to the north. Winds will shift to the SW and become gusty 25-30 kt Friday afternoon ahead of a cold front. The cold front passage likely occurs Friday evening. Following its passage, winds may gust to around 35 kt on the ocean waters. Per collaboration with neighboring offices, have issued a Gale Watch Friday night through Saturday afternoon. The non ocean waters currently look more marginal, so have left them out for now. Winds should start to weaken late Saturday and gradually fall below SCA levels Saturday night into early Sunday. Conditions will then remain below SCA levels into early next week. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: October 14: KISP: 82/2026 Possible Record High Minimum Temperatures: October 14: KEWR: 67/1990 KBDR: 64/1990 KNYC: 68/1990 KLGA: 70/1990 KJFK: 67/1990 KISP: 66/1990 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for ANZ350-353-355-380-383-385. && $$ DISCUSSION...DS/NV AVIATION...MW MARINE...DS/NV  207 FXUS62 KCHS 142342 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 742 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Aviation Section has been updated to reflect the 00Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail through Friday. - 2) Expect gusty winds and temperatures well below normal this weekend behind a strong cold front. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail through Friday. Warm and dry conditions continue through Friday as a ridge of high pressure slides from west to east across the southeast Region. At the surface, dry high pressure will be weakening before moving into the nearshore Atlantic waters on Thursday into Friday. With h925 temperatures peaking in the 20-22 deg C range both today and Thursday, which is in the mid to upper 90th percentile for the dates, near-record to record high temperatures will be possible on both days. Areas away from the coast will peak in the mid to upper 80s, with lower to mid 80s along the coast, with the individual records at our climate sites in the climate section at the bottom. Similar to what we saw earlier this morning, patchy shallow ground fog will be possible Thursday morning. Maximum dew points today should surge into the lower to upper 60s, and with overnight lows similarly in the lower to upper 60s, cross over temperatures are expected to be reached. However, with high condensation pressure deficits, the fog should be patchy and shallow. Areas in the vicinity of Darien, GA have the highest probabilities for visibilities below 1 mile near 25%. KEY MESSAGE 2: Expect gusty winds and temperatures well below normal this weekend behind a strong cold front. A strong cold front will sweep across southeast Georgia and the SC Lowcountry late Friday night into Saturday morning. NAM12 shows a frontal wave move north along the coast Saturday morning, resulting in a band of light of rainfall across the forecast area, GFS and ECMWF along with the AI variants generally agrees that it should be a dry cold front, only sprinkles across northern Dorchester and Berkeley Counties areas early Saturday morning. GFS H85 temperatures over Lake Moultrie cools by 10 degrees between 0Z Sat to 0Z Sun. As a result, temperature will fall well below normal on Sat, with highs ranging around 70 degrees. In addition, north-northeast winds across the region will be breezy, with gusts around 25 mph. In fact, north winds across Lake Moultrie may strengthen early Saturday, gusting around 25 kts. A Lake Wind Advisory may be needed beginning early Saturday morning. Saturday night into Sunday, the center of a 1035 mb high will settle over VA by daybreak Sunday. The sfc high will ridge SW across the Carolinas and Georgia on Sunday. Northeast winds will continue through the period, generally between 10-15 mph with gusts between 20 to 25 mph. The northeast winds will maintain cool llvl thicknesses across the forecast area. Using a blend of guidance, low temperatures on Sunday are forecast to range from the upper 40s inland to the mid to upper 50s along the coast. High temperatures are forecast to range from the mid to upper 60s across SE GA and the SC Lowcountry. The center of sfc high pressure should shift over off the New England coast on Monday, resulting in winds to weaken and shift from the east-northeast. Temperatures across the CWA should warm near seasonable normals, mid to upper 70s. Gradual warming expected through mid-week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Clear skies with light and variable winds will continue through overnight period. Chances for patchy and shallow ground fog return late overnight, with areas in the vicinity ofDarien, GA having a 25% chance for visibilities to get below 1 mile. Elsewhere, the fog is expected to be transient and thin. Any fog will dissipate shortly after sunrise, with no aviation concerns for the rest of Thursday. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Tonight through Thursday: High pressure will continue the benign marine conditions. Winds will become southerly this afternoon and southwesterly overnight, remaining below 10 knots or less. Friday through Monday: A strong cold front will sweep across the region late Friday night into Saturday morning. After the front late Friday night, winds will veer from the north and strengthen to 25 to 30 kts across the Charleston Harbor with gale wind gusts across the nearshore and outer SC/GA waters. Gale Watches are likely for all marine zones outside the Charleston Harbor beginning Friday night. A Small Craft Advisory is likely for the Charleston Harbor, beginning late Friday night. Guidance has trended much stronger for marine wind gusts Sunday into Sunday evening, with the NBM indicating peak probabilities, 40 percent, of storm force (48 kts) wind gusts across the outer GA waters and portions of the outer SC waters. If guidance remains strong, it is possible that Storm Watches/Warnings could be required for portions of the outer GA/SC waters Saturday night into Sunday night. At this time, the coastal waters forecast will feature gusts around 45 kts across the outer GA waters Saturday evening and again Sunday evening. Surging gale wind gusts appears to linger through Monday night With gale to potential storm-force wind gusts, wave heights are expected to build to 7 to 10 ft Saturday-Saturday night, gradually building to 10 to 16 ft by Sunday-Sunday night. The elevated seas may result in breakers in excess of 5 ft, with High Surf conditions this weekend, especially along the GA coast. Wave heights should gradually subside through early next week. However, six ft or greater seas may remain across the nearshore and outer waters through Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: October 14: KCHS: 88/2024 KCXM: 86/2024 KSAV: 88/2024 October 15: KCHS: 87/2021 KCXM: 88/1925 KSAV: 90/1925 && .EQUIPMENT... The National Weather Service Charleston Doppler Radar (KCLX) is expected to be down for around two hours Thursday morning for maintenance. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ APT/CPM/NED  332 FXUS63 KEAX 142345 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 645 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch remains in effect for Linn County in Kansas and Bates and Henry counties in Missouri through midday Thursday. - Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop late tonight into Thursday morning with additional rainfall of 1 to 1.25 across the far southern KEAX CWA. - Much cooler weather is on tap for the end of the week with the potential for frost by early Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 18z/1pm surface analysis shows a 1025mb high centered over the Dakotas...while a stationary frontal boundary remains draped from central Ohio southwestward to the Texas panhandle. Several weak waves have been tracking along the front today, resulting in scattered light showers across the southern half of the KEAX CWA. As a vigorous upper low evident on the latest water vapor imagery over western Colorado pivots northeastward, surface cyclogenesis will occur across northern Texas tonight...with the low tracking into northern Indiana by Thursday evening. Rich deep-layer moisture is currently in place as evidenced by NAM precipitable water values of 1.75 to 2 inches. As stronger forcing approaches from the west, showers will become more numerous later tonight into Thursday morning. CAMs have trended slower with the precip with general consensus suggesting only scattered showers until after 09z/4am. Based on the juxtaposition of strongest lift and deepest moisture, the most widespread rainfall will focus between 09z/4am and 15z/10am. While the strongest instability will remain further south in closer proximity to the front, NAM MUCAPE values increase to 200-400J/kg...supporting a few rumbles of thunder. Once the initial forcing lifts N/NE of the area, the rain will diminish to scattered showers by late Thursday morning. Additional rainfall through Thursday will range from around 0.50 near the Iowa border to 1 to 1.25 across the far southern counties in the Flood Watch. Once the surface low tracks into the Great Lakes, it will pull a strong cold front through the area Thursday afternoon...resulting in an end to the showers and introducing a much cooler airmass for the end of the week. As Canadian high pressure builds southward, strong/gusty northwesterly winds will develop behind the departing front Thursday night into Friday. Friday morning will be the windiest period with the 13z NBM indicating a 40-70% chance of gusts greater than 30mph. After high temperatures only in the 50s, clear skies and diminishing winds will allow lows to dip into the lower to middle 30s Friday night. While there is still some uncertainty concerning wind speeds, confidence continues to grow for widespread frost by early Saturday morning. After that, the cool fall weather will continue through the weekend...followed by a return to above normal temps in the lower to middle 70s by next Tuesday/Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Deteriorating conditions are expected overnight and into Thursday morning. At the beginning of the TAF period, anticipate widespread MVFR CIGs and isolated areas of MVFR to IFR VIS where light rain and mist are ongoing. Light rain coverage will expand across the region overnight, resulting in IFR CIGs areawide and increasing potential for MVFR to IFR VIS. Showers are expected to wane during the daytime on Thursday with continued IFR CIGs and light, variable winds. Some terminals, mainly around the Kansas City metro and south, could potentially see CIGs reduced to LIFR...however, confidence in timing and placement was too limited for LIFR CIGs to be included in any particular TAF atthis time. By late afternoon, a cold front will begin to move in from the WNW...behind this front, expect NW winds around 10 kt gusting up to 25 kt. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for MOZ053-054. KS...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for KSZ060. && $$ DISCUSSION...WFO EAX AVIATION...Macko  522 FXUS61 KALY 142347 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 747 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Lowered temperatures in the ADKS today as well as boosted winds this afternoon/evening. Slightly increased rainfall totals for the Mid- Hudson Valley on Friday and continued strong winds/wind gusts across the region for Friday night into Saturday. Also added slight chance for snow showers Friday night into Saturday morning for the southern ADKs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) After a rainy Friday, windy and colder weather is expected Friday night into Saturday. Gusts could down foliated trees and blow around unsecured outdoor objects. There is also the potential for snow showers in the ADKs Friday night into Saturday morning. 2) Dry weather with seasonable temperatures are expected for the start of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... With the upper level disturbance now to our east, mainly dry conditions are expected through the rest of the afternoon and evening outside of a few isolated showers lingering in the ADKs, however KENX radar shows most have passed to our west already. Clouds are expected to persist with current GOES satellite imagery showing a continuous layer of stratocumulus covering much of the region. Areas south in the Mid-Hudson Valley could see some breaks in the clouds allowing temperatures to warm up into the mid to upper 70s, while the rest of the region stays cloudy and in the 50s and 60s. Westerly winds will be breezy through the evening, especially channeled down the Mohawk Valley corridor into the Capital Region and Berkshires with gusts near 25 mph. Gradual clearing is expected overnight tonight as a high pressure system begins to build in from Eastern Ontario and the Great Lakes region, tracking overhead by tomorrow morning. With dewpoints dropping into the 30s and 40s, tomorrow will be a dry and pleasant day with highs in the mid 50s (terrain) and low 60s (valleys), along with a light breeze and mostly sunny skies. A strong upper level trough and associated frontal system will approach from the Great Lakes region tomorrow night into Friday, along with a progressive low pressure developing over the region Friday, tracking off the northern New England coast by Friday night. This will bring periods of stratiform rain showers starting just before sunrise Friday morning and remaining steady throughout most of Friday as the system's warm front passes through. A brief period of dry weather could occur in the afternoon, but additional scattered showers are expected late afternoon and into the evening as the system's cold front then passes through before tapering off into Saturday morning. Model and ensemble guidance show PWATs being in the 1 to 1.5" range +1 to 2" STDEV above normal and above the climatological 75th percentile. Widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 2" are expected with the higher totals north of I-90 in the southern ADKs, southern Green mountains, and the Berkshire mountains, and the lower amounts in areas I-90 south. Some elevated instability could even allow for a few thunderstorms to develop Friday morning through afternoon. Sufficient bulk shear of 60 kt exists across the region, however there is still some uncertainty as to the exact locations of storms since CAMs and long range models show locations of greatest MUCAPE (600 J/kg) in areas south of I-90, and locations of steepest lapse rates (>6.5 C/km) and best synoptic forcing over the southern ADKs and western Mohawk Valley. There is a medium chance for thunderstorms across the region, but the chance for storms to become strong is low at this time. However, with this chance, there is the potential for brief heavy downpours and small hail. NBM probabilistic guidance has a 60 to 80% chance of exceeding 1.5" and a 30 to 40% chance of exceeding 2" for areas north of I-90 and a 20 to 40% chance of exceeding 1.5" south of I-90. With these totals falling over a longer duration, this looks to be another beneficial rainfall across much of the region. Flooding is not expected outside of some ponding of water in the typical places of poor drainage and urban areas. Friday's highs will be in the upper 50s (terrain) and upper 60s to approaching the low 70s (valleys). Temperatures turn chilly Friday night as the cold front passes through with most of the higher elevations falling below freezing and valleys dropping into the mid 30s by daybreak Saturday. The upper level trough axis will be centered over the region by Saturday morning with 850 hpa temps dropping down to around -8 to -10 C, which is well below normal for mid October. As a result, daytime temps will only be in the 30s across the high terrain on Saturday, with 40s for valley areas. In addition, a strong pressure gradient will result in breezy to gusty conditions, making it feel even colder through the weekend and making for a blustery late fall day. Steep low level lapse rates seen on forecast soundings amid a strong low level jet could help mix down strong wind gusts on Saturday. Probabilistic guidance has a 30-50% chance for gusts exceeding 40 mph within portions of the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region, Berkshires and eastern Catskills late Friday night through early Saturday afternoon which could approach wind advisory range and knock down foliated trees and blow around any unsecured outdoors objects. Although moisture will be limited behind the cold front, some lake enhanced and upslope precip may occur behind the front, allowing for some snow showers for western, northern and high terrain areas early Saturday morning. While some snowflakes do look likely across the higher terrain this weekend, total amounts look very minor at this time. Also, can not rule out some flurries extending into the eastern Mohawk Valley and Capital Region Saturday morning. After a cold and calmer Saturday night, highs on Sunday will moderate somewhat, but will still be below normal in the 50s. KEY MESSAGE 2... Dry weather and more seasonable temperatures are expected for the start of next week as high pressure and a warmer air mass builds across the region. Daytime highs should reach the lower/mid 60s in valley areas with mid/upper 50s for the higher terrain. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 00Z/Fri...High pressure will gradually build into the region through the upcoming TAF period. MVFR stratus at KALB/KPSF will continue for much of tonight before clouds decrease giving way to return of VFR conditions by Thursday morning. VFR cigs will likely continue at KGFL though it is possible for cigs to briefly lower to MVFR late tonight. VFR conditions are expected through the period at KPOU. Northwesterly winds 5-10 kt with a few gusts to around 20 kt will continue through tonight then become north to northeasterly 5-10 kt on Thursday. Outlook... Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 36 kts. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night to Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...53/24 AVIATION...33  541 FXUS61 KGYX 142348 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 748 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated some minor items for the evening including overnight temperature trend and sky conditions. Reduced precipitation chances NW of the mountains tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. High pressure builds in tonight and Thursday for mostly dry weather. 2. Low pressure crosses Friday through Friday night bringing beneficial rainfall. 3. Seasonably cold and blustery conditions arrive for the weekend, along with the chance for a few downed branches. Wintry conditions hazardous to hikers are expected through the higher terrain. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure centered over the Midwest will slide east tonight and become centered overhead during the day Thursday. Low pressure strengthening in the Canadian Maritimes will tighten the gradient over the area leading to breezy NW winds overnight into Thursday morning. As the high crests over the area Thursday, winds will relax and become light and variable Thursday afternoon. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny with highs ranging from the upper 40s north to near 60F south. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... High pressure retreats to the east Thursday night with clouds increasing as the next low pressure system approaches from the Great Lakes. This low will continue to strengthen as it tracks towards the St Lawrence Valley Friday and into the Canadian Maritimes Saturday night. Precipitation will break out from west to east early Friday morning with widespread rainfall expected through out the day Friday. Thermal profiles may be cold enough for brief period of wintry mix at the highest elevations Friday morning. Latest forecast rainfall amounts will range from 0.5 inches south to 0.75 inches across the north with locally higher amounts in the mountains. Steady precipitation will transition to showers Friday night with cold air moving in allowing for a transition to snow showers in the mountains. As temperatures continue to cool into Saturday morning, snow will likely make it to the valley floors across the north. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... The low pressure that passes through late this week deepens across the Canadian Maritimes by Saturday. As high pressure builds in from the west, a strong pressure gradient brings gusty conditions, as well as a seasonably cold airmass for mid October. Wind gusts on Saturday will mainly be around 30-35 mph, with some gusts to around 40 mph. This will bring the chance for a few downed branches and isolated power outages as one of the first windier days of the season knocks off some weaker branches. Winds ease Saturday night, with lighter winds expected for Sunday. Temperatures will be seasonably cold, especially for a day with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs mainly hold in the 30s across the north on Saturday, while the coastline struggles to reach 50 degrees. Scattered upslope snow showers are expected across the higher terrain. Rising modeled froude numbers indicate that some flurries and snow showers will make progress downwind of the mountains Saturday afternoon, only gradually drying up as they move southeastward. Lows will then be cold Saturday night, with widespread temperatures in the 20s, and below freezing temperatures expected all the way to the coastline. Across the higher terrain, wintertime conditions are expected. Accumulating snowfall across the upslope terrain, temperatures in the teens, and wind chills well below zero are all expected. Wind gusts over 100 mph are expected on Mount Washington on Saturday. Any hikers or those above 2500ft should plan for wintertime conditions this weekend. By Sunday, winds ease noticeably, and temperatures begin to rebound by a fewdegrees. Highs are expected to range from the low 40s across the north, to mid 50s along the coast by Sunday. This moderating trend continues into early next week, with high rebounding into the 60s in most areas for Monday and Tuesday. High pressure remains in control of the weather pattern for at least early to midweek next week, but models are indicating that low pressure likely begins to organize to our south during this timeframe, and will be worth monitoring through the forecast period. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 00z Friday...Mainly VFR south of the mountains tonight with MVFR cigs likely along and north of the mountains including HIE. Sprinkles/drizzle possible, but with little to no impact on cig/vis. Winds and gusts increase overnight, becoming more widespread with gusts increasing to 23 kts after daybreak. VFR is expected across the entire area Thursday. Outlook... Thursday night: Clouds thicken and lower with cigs approaching MVFR threshold Friday morning. Friday-Friday night: Widespread IFR and rain are likely. Rain should taper off Friday night with improvement to MVFR or VFR. HIE may see lingering rain showers switch to snow showers with IFR or MVFR there. Saturday: Rain and snow showers likely at HIE to bring MVFR/IFR. Elsewhere VFR, although it's possible a few showers make it downwind of the mountains. It also looks breezy with west to northwest winds of 30 kts possible. Sunday-Monday: Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... A cold front crossing the waters will freshen NW tonight with SCA conditions expected into Thursday morning. NW winds will gust to Gale force over the outer waters offshore the Mid Coast where a Gale Warning is in effect. High pressure builds in Thursday allowing for winds and seas to drop below SCA thresholds into Thursday night. Low pressure approaches from the west early Friday and passes north of the waters Friday night. It will likely feature onshore SCA winds Friday, before turning NW Friday night through Saturday with gusts to Gale force possible. High pressure then builds in Sunday to Monday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ150-152. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ151-154. Gale Warning from 3 AM to 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ180. && $$ DISCUSSION...Clair/Cornwell/Schroeter AVIATION...Cornwell  574 FXUS63 KFSD 142349 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 649 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain returns late this evening, continuing into Thursday afternoon. Rain totals will range from a trace to a couple tenths along Highway 14, to 0.25 to 0.75 inches near and south of I-90. Isolated pockets up to 1 inch are possible along and south of Highway 20. - Near to below average temperatures continue for the remainder of the work week, with highs in the 50s to low 60s. - Chances for frost Friday night into early Saturday morning as lows fall into the mid to low 30s. Areas east of the James River are most likely to see frost. - Dry conditions and warmer temperatures return through the weekend into early next week with highs back above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Bufkit soundings indicate a persistent, shallow layer of low stratus clouds for the remainder of today. Clouds will likely limit our highs somewhat from what the NBM loaded, adjusted down slightly with a blend of NBM/CONSShort. Overnight lows will fall to the 40s. Meanwhile a southern stream upper trough located over the central Rockies will work east through the rest of today. Early this evening the trough and associated surface low will eject out onto the central plains and then accelerate northeast. As it does so scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will form over western Nebraska and Kansas. These will move northeast with the system and begin to impact south central South Dakota between roughly 6 and 8 pm CDT tonight. Scattered showers and storms should be in the Sioux Falls area roughly between 10 pm and midnight. As the surface low skirts just to the south of the CWA early Thursday morning showers and storms become more numerous, especially for areas along and south of I-90 and into northwest Iowa. Here a few stronger storms may produce more frequent lightning and isolated pockets of heavy rain. Severe weather is not anticipated. Late Thursday morning into the afternoon a northern stream upper trough and surface low will move into central Canada. A cold front will form off of this low and will pass through the region from the northwest to the southeast. Behind the front storms end and clouds begin to break up Thursday afternoon and into the evening. Simultaneously the northern stream wave extends south, eventually phasing into the southern stream wave. This will result in an amplifying effect as the now deep amplitude upper trough tightens and narrows. Thursday evening the LLJ responds to this amplification by ramping quickly up to 50+ mph. These strong winds will mix down resulting in surface gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Occasional gusts as high as 45 mph are also possible over central South Dakota. Our western most counties may briefly approach Wind Advisory criteria late Thursday evening, but guidance is not in good agreement at this time. As such, have opted to wait on a wind headline at this time. Winds generally decrease as you move to the east but will remain gusty at 25-35 mph. The stronger winds gradually move east overnight into Friday morning. Additional wind concerns will be along the lee side of Buffalo Ridge where additional gusts of 40+ mph are possible. As far as rain totals are concerned the latest guidance has trended down a little. Areas along Highway 14 and north will only see a trace up to a tenth or two. As you move south toward I-90 totals increase to a couple tenths up to 0.30 inches. For areas along and south of I-90 guidance indicates rain totals ranging from 0.25 to 0.75 inches, with highest totals focused over northwest Iowa. Areas along and south of Highway 20 may see isolated pockets up to 1 inch. Breezy winds continue into early Friday afternoon before gradually tapering off Friday evening. Friday highs will be on the cool side of climatology thanks to strong CAA on northwesterly winds, in the low to mid 50s. Skies clear through the day and remain clear through the overnight. This will allow for maximum radiational cooling, resulting in low temperatures by sunrise Saturday in the low to mid 30s. Area of frost are possible, mainly west of the James River Valley. Clear skies continue for Saturday as winds turn southerly and usher in warmer air. Highs will climb into the low to upper 60s, warmest over central South Dakota. No concerns at this time for frost Saturday night into Sunday morning with lows in the 40s. Sunday will be another mostly clear day with continued WAA. Highs will climb into the mid to upper 60s with lows in the 40s. Dry conditions and highs in the 60s and low 70s continue into the first half of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Mix of VFR and MVFR stratus this evening gives way to widespread MVFR and IFR conditions as a couple periods of rain move into the area late this evening, continuing through Thursday morning. Rain lingers into the early afternoon east of I-29, finally exiting northwestern IA by mid afternoon. Given latest soundings, have removed TS mention from KSUX, as confidence in occurrence is lower. Can't rule out some isolated TS during the period south of I-90. Light and variable winds early in the period. However, northwesterly winds increase as the precipitation exits Thursday morning and into the afternoon. By the mid afternoon, gusts 25-35 knots are expected. Strongest gusts will be west of the James River into south central SD. Strong winds continue through the end of the forecast period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJP AVIATION...SG  664 FXUS61 KRNK 142351 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 751 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Discussion of possible record highs for Wednesday has been removed since that is now in the past. Have sped up the arrival time of showers, and a few storms, across western portions of the area for late this evening. Aviation discussion updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Frontal boundary provides shower/few storm chances tonight into Thursday. 2) Strong front late Friday to bring blustery winds and much cooler temperatures going into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Frontal boundary provides shower/few storm chances tonight into Thursday. A switch to more zonal flow aloft advects an elongated moisture axis and corresponding frontal boundary in across the northern half or so of the CWA for Thursday. This will allow for the return of precip chances. It should primarily be scattered showers since instability should be lacking. As of 730 PM EDT, progression of showers and storms are a few hours ahead of schedule. As such, our latest forecast update will reflect a slightly early arrival from Bluefield to Lewisburg late this evening. Key Message 2: Strong front late Friday to bring blustery winds and much cooler temperatures going into the weekend. We quickly transition out of the zonal flow with the approach of a high amplitude upper trough and sharp attendant sfc cold front late Friday into Saturday. Not expecting much in the form of storms with again limited instability with this system and the greater chance of showers looks to be in the west mountains. The main impacts from this front will be enhanced gradient winds kicking in for Friday night into Saturday morning and then some of the coldest air of the season ushering in. It will definitely feel like a rollercoaster of change as highs Saturday look to be mainly in the low 50s for much of the mountains and then upper 50s to low 60s for the Piedmont. Sunday morning is going to have frost/freeze concerns for much of the area with progged lows mainly in the upper 20s to low 30s for the mountains and mid to upper 30s for the Piedmont. This could again be the case for Monday morning as well. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions currently prevail across the region. However, look for lowering of ceilings through the night across the mountains into the IFR/MVFR range. Most of the region east of the crest of the Blue Ridge will remain VFR, but still have a trend of lowering ceilings. Associated with the lowering ceilings across the mountains will be scattered showers through the night, and isolated thunderstorms this evening. By daybreak Thursday, the leading edge of the showers will be near a KBLF- KLYH line, with limited precipitation south of that line. Sub- VFR visibilities will be possible with some of the showers and also subsequent fog development Through the day Thursday, showers, and a few storms, will continue making headway into the area, but remain primarily north of North Carolina. Ceilings are expected to remain VFR for areas near and south of the NC/VA border. Progressing north of this line ceilings are expected to tank into MVFR/IFR level fairly quickly. Visibilities are expected to recover to VFR for most locations, but there will be some remaining pockets of sub- VFR. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... With a stalled boundary followed by a strong cold front, some sub-VFR conditions are possible Thursday night and Friday. Behind the front Friday night into Saturday morning, look for an abrupt wind shift to the northwest and gusty conditions at the surface. These stronger winds should gradually veer north and decrease through the day Saturday. Dry weather and VFR conditionsare expected into Sunday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AB/DS AVIATION...AB/DS  618 FXUS64 KSHV 142350 AAA AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Shreveport LA 650 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Above average warmth will continue Thursday, with highs in the lower 90s and mostly dry weather prevailing. - A powerful cold front will cross the ArkLaTex Friday, bringing significantly cooler temperatures and much drier air. - Very low humidity and gusty winds will produce elevated fire weather conditions Friday and likely into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Ridging over the Southeastern CONUS is keeping temperatures above average, while southerly onshore flow sustains unusually humid conditions, making this autumn week feel more like summer. This ripe and favorable environment has been producing a few small and widely scattered showers across the northwestern portions of the ArkLaTex today. This convection will continue into the afternoon and trend downwards this evening with the loss of daytime heating, while temperatures drop into the 60s by daybreak tomorrow. Thursday will find the upper level high sliding offshore over the Atlantic, but southerly flow aloft and at the surface will maintain another warm afternoon of highs in the lower 90s with generally dry conditions areawide before the advertised pattern shift arrives. The trough and closed low responsible for the active weather pattern across the Plains and Ozarks will ultimately be absorbed into a deepening longwave trough plunging south from Canada by late Thursday into Friday. This amplified synoptic scale feature will swing a powerful cold front south and east down the central third of the CONUS, with guidance indicating fropa across the ArkLaTex through the course of the day Friday. Depending on the exact timing of the forward progression, high temperatures Friday will range considerably from the upper 60s northwest into the 80s south and east. Along with significantly cooler temperatures in the form of morning lows in the 40s and highs in the upper 60s to near 70 on Saturday, the airmass behind the front will be extremely dry, bringing relative humidity values down into the 20 to 30 percent range. Together with elevated winds up to 20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. Fire Weather products are being considered and barring unexpected substantial changes to the forecast, will likely be issued within the next few forecast cycles. Guidance suggests a warming trend through the weekend and into early next week as highs take aim at the upper 70s and lower 80s again, with dry weather continuing aside from a chance for scattered showers across our southern zones early next week. /26/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 650 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 VFR conditions will continue this evening through much of the overnight hours, with a deep lyr of dry air expected to continue mixing N across E TX and into SW AR later this evening/tonight. Thus, the residual low AC cigs will diminish/shift N away from the E TX terminals this evening, and eventually TXK/ELD after 06Z Thursday. Should see IFR cigs and the potential for patchy FG develop after 09Z across Deep E TX, which should drift N across E TX/possibly portions of NW LA by/after daybreak, before quickly mixing out by mid-morning. A weak cu field should develop by late morning/midday across E TX/Wrn LA, and may spread N into the remainder of NE TX through the afternoon, but will have to wait for the return of low MVFR/IFR cigs by mid to late evening Thursday across NE TX/adjacent SW AR, along and behind a strong cold front that will enter the region. SSE winds 3-5kts tonight will become SSW 5-9kts after 15Z. /15/&& .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 A powerful cold front will cross area fire districts on Friday, with unseasonably cooler temperatures to follow. This front is not expected to produce any significant rainfall. The post-frontal airmass will also be very dry, dropping relative humidity values into the upper 20 to 30 percent range. North-northwest winds behind the front will be very breezy, maintaining sustained speeds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Together with critically dry fuels, these conditions merit a Fire Weather Watch for all area fire districts beginning Friday morning. /26/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 66 90 66 76 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 64 93 64 83 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 65 91 55 69 / 10 0 10 0 TXK 67 92 62 71 / 10 0 0 0 ELD 64 93 62 77 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 68 89 62 70 / 10 0 10 0 GGG 66 90 61 73 / 10 0 10 0 LFK 65 90 65 78 / 0 0 20 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073. LA...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022. OK...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for OKZ077. TX...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ DISCUSSION...26 AVIATION...15  666 FXUS65 KSLC 142351 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 551 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1249 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026... - A closed low continues to meander east across Utah providing continued chances for widespread light to moderate rainfall for areas primarily east of I-15. Mountain snowfall will continue across the Western Uintas (primarily northern slopes) and our central Utah mountains. - A drying trend develops Thursday, persisting through the weekend. - Freezing temperatures look to develop across locations such as eastern Box Elder county, Juab / Millard counties, Sanpete Valley, and higher elevation valley locations across southwest Utah Friday morning and potentially Saturday morning. - High confidence continues to exist regarding another system impacting the forecast area around Tuesday next week. Guidance is now 50/50 on a southern split track versus the trough holding itself together, resulting in high uncertainty. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1249 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026... A closed mid-level low associated with a large mid- level trough continues to slowly meander east across southeastern UT. Ascent will gradually increase along its eastern periphery into the afternoon, bringing another round of low elevation rainfall and snowfall to the western Uintas and central UT mountains into tomorrow morning. As the low continues east, a lobe of vorticity will dip south towards the AZ/CA border spinning up a large, albeit weak, trough across much of the southwest. This feature will meander across the area into the weekend, slowly retrogressing southwest and weakening with time as westerly flow develops across the Great Basin in its wake. This will yield mild conditions with a slight uptick in afternoon temperatures through the weekend with a dry pattern developing. Eventually, this trough will weaken enough to phase back into weak mean mid-level flow by Monday ahead of an incoming system. Current model trends suggest a more east-northeast mid-level wind component across northern UT this evening into tomorrow morning, suggesting the canyon wind / localized downslope event will be more limited than anticipated. This is due to the mid-level low sliding somewhat further northeast over time than initially forecast in prior cycles. Regardless, typically windy spots (such as Ogden and Farmington canyons) may see gusts to 45mph in the immediate vicinities of each respective canyon mouth. Across southwest UT, a gap wind event still appears likely to develop late this evening and persist into tomorrow morning as northwest flow amidst a tight pressure gradient continues to establish itself. While gusts will generally range from 30-40mph through much of the overnight period, gusts potentially reaching or exceeding 45mph (70% chance) look to develop around the 2-6AM timeframe primarily near the Beaver Dam Mountains and Blackrock Canyon. Winds are expected to diminish across the area before noon. Another Pacific system looks to push into the western U.S. around Tuesday with favorable agreement among ensemble members (>80%). Compared to yesterday, however, ensembles are now split regarding two solutions which would greatly impact what we see across the forecast area. The first solution keeps the mid-level trough in tact, bringing widespread precipitation and mountain snow to UT and southwest WY. The mid-level trough remaining in tact is particularly important to this scenario as it will draw in notably colder air, resulting in favorable mountain snow conditions for much of the state. The latter solution is, unfortunately, quite similar to what we saw many systems do at the start of the 2025-2026 season where the system "cuts off" and forms a cutoff low to the south of theSierra mountains. This will prevent more robust cold air advection further south, resulting in a warmer system favoring snowfall across higher elevation southern and central UT terrain. Additionally, this would result in weaker ascent further north with northern UT seeing weaker rain showers and little snow across the terrain. These early season systems are typically difficult to resolve at this timeframe, and this forecast will more than likely see major changes over the coming days. && .AVIATION... KSLC...Low clouds with CIGS generally 6kft or less persist this evening before gradually clearing overnight. Mostly clear skies develop by early Thursday morning, prevailing through the remainder of the TAF period. Northwesterly winds continue at the terminal through around 06z before shifting southeasterly thereafter. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Low clouds persist across the northern and eastern portions of the airspace this evening, but are expected to gradually clear overnight. Some low clouds may persist across southwest Wyoming through Thursday morning, but expect mostly clear skies across the airspace by late Thursday morning. Generally light winds are expected for most terminals overnight. Gusty northeasterly winds develop late Thursday morning across southern and eastern Utah, with widespread gusts 25+ kts through the afternoon. Southwest Wyoming will see elevated easterly winds develop Thursday morning and continue through the day. && .FIRE WEATHER, Issued 1249 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026... Low pressure continues to meander across southeastern UT resulting in one more day of widespread rainfall and high elevation snowfall for areas east of I-15. High pressure builds in Thursday, bringing a drying and slight warming trend to all of Utah into and through the weekend. Mixing will remain limited given weak winds, inversion development, and October sun angle through the next few days. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ112. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Worster AVIATION...Whitlam FIRE WEATHER...Worster HYDROLOGY... For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  738 FXUS63 KLMK 142354 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 754 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Storms continue to push through the area, bringing localized flash flooding potential and gusty winds in addition to heavy rainfall rates. * Another soupy overnight tonight will bring areas of dense fog and limited cooling potential. * Tomorrow evening brings a chance for severe thunderstorms to Southern Indiana, dependent upon adequate surface heating and time of clearing. * Cooldown and breezy winds arrive Friday, with a chance for frost in the Bluegrass overnight this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 **********Rounding Out Today's storms into Tonight************* Ongoing storms across the region will continue through this evening. A few spotty lines will likely move through, right now about two waves are visible but model data is pointing toward a third forming around sunset in isolated pockets that still contain reasonable instability. With these showers, widespread minimum rainfall totals will be .5" for the CWA north of the parkways; isolated values in the .45" have already fallen and rain is expected to continue. Additionally, local values in the 2-4" range are still possible given the moisture-loaded soupy environment. Training is a possible threat if storms slow down around sunset, but at the moment things are moving along nicely, just dumping rain. Flash flooding may be possible in known flash-ier spots, but river/stream flooding is unlikely. Overnight, we are unlikely to dry out. Lows in the upper 60s and dews at the same means we will see fog, potentially dense fog, in areas that received rainfall but are not actively raining. This will certainly include river valleys and low-lying areas, and will likely persist beneath cloud cover. ****************Tomorrow's Heat and S IN Storms****************** As the sun rises tomorrow, we aren't likely to see it as cloud cover will persist throughout the day. However, that doesn't mean we get rid of the heat - expect around the 90 degree mark in Bowling Green and low 80s across the northern half of the CWA. We should start clearing around noon in patches, with widespread clearing around sunset. On the off-chance that Southern IN does see earlier clearing, severe storms are possbile in the evening hours. The wind profile is ideal for low-level directional shear and upper-level speed shear, with a hodograph favorable for a low-end tornadic threat. While this is a tornadic environment, there are too-many "if"s involved in this statement to portray any kind of confidence of occurence; this is outlooked in the Day 2 SPC forecast with the majority of the threat pushing toward central IN and OH. Thundershowers across S IN have a timeframe of about 2pm-10pm. *******************3-Day Weekend Forecast************************ Friday we see a cold front move through the area in the afternoon. Our high temps will come just after sunrise, with highs in the low 60s (S IN) to 70 degree mark (Bowling Green, Campbellsville, Richmond) and a 75 degree high toward Albany, KY. We are breezy all day, with sustained speeds in the 10-15 kt range and gusts up to 25 kt. Cloud cover and some spotty showers arrive with our front, and overnight lows are expected to be in the 30s. Saturday and Sunday are firmly in the pleasant fall weather territory, with highs in the 55-65 range and overnight lows around 40 on Saturday night and pushing frost territory in the mid-30s Sunday night. Clear skies should remain all Saturday and Sunday. Next week stays dry, and we get to keep the seasonable temperatures for a while longer. Our next chance of rain should arrive aroundthe 24th. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 754 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 With a cold front bisecting central Kentucky, it it producing a line of showers and thunderstorms working east over BWG and LEX. This line will move towards RGA in the coming hours. Believe most activity will remain over BWG, LEX, and RGA tonight before the front moves back to the north tomorrow, returning better rain chances to HNB and SDF. The greater concern tonight into tomorrow will be falling ceilings. All TAF sites should expect ceilings falling to 300-600 feet later tonight. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JPH AVIATION...KDW  839 FXUS62 KRAH 142357 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 757 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Potential for highs to remain in the low to mid 80s northeast of the Triangle on Thursday * Increased chance of rain Friday night and particularly Saturday morning with a cold front && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 210 PM Wednesday... 1) The potential for record heat continues through Friday. 2) A cold front Friday night brings a decisive end to the record heat, bringing in well below normal temperatures for the weekend and the potential for patchy frost by Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... As of 210 PM Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1... The potential for record heat continues through Friday. As of 2pm, RDU had already warmed to 88 degrees, beating the previous daily record high of 86 set in 1985. In addition, GSO had warmed to 85 degrees, tying the daily record high set in 1975. FAY is 87 degrees and will flirt with their daily record high of 90 degrees. This is primarily due to an upper-level ridge building across the southeastern United States, considering surface wind has been minimal out of the southwest today. The potential for record heat on Thursday may be tempered by a cold front currently near the Mason-Dixon line that will drop south tomorrow into Virginia, and some models are showing this front drifting into northeastern North Carolina. There will likely be a 10 degree difference in high temperatures between Raleigh and Roanoke Rapids Thursday afternoon, although all three climate sites (Greensboro, RDU, Fayetteville) are expected to remain on the warm side of the front. Precipitation chances with this front are near zero, but the front will retreat to the north on Friday, allowing the entire forecast area to return to the mid to upper 80s for highs. Along with widespread sunshine on Friday, wind gusts as high as 30 mph can be expected in the afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold front Friday night brings a decisive end to the record heat, bringing in well below normal temperatures for the weekend and the potential for patchy frost by Sunday morning. The cold front is expected to arrive slightly later than the previous forecast, and should now be crossing central North Carolina after sunset Friday evening. Although winds could be gusty with the frontal passage itself, this timing will reduce the overall wind gusts due to less mixing in the overnight hours. Models are showing a noticeable increase for the chance of rain with the frontal passage, specifically looking at Saturday morning, although rainfall totals would not be heavy. Saturday's highs will be 20 to 25 degrees colder than Friday, with isolated colder spots only rising into the upper 50s, with most locations reaching the low to mid 60s. Saturday and Sunday nights should have similar low temperatures, with most locations falling into the 40s, but some sheltered locations dropping into the upper 30s with the potential for some frost. Temperatures should return to near normal values by the beginning of next week, with highs around 70 and lows around 50. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 755 PM Wednesday... 24 hour TAF period: There is high confidence in VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Winds will be light (5 kts or less), from the SW through Thursday morning before switching to the NE across northern areas in the afternoon as a backdoor front begins to settle into Virginia and parts of northern North Carolina. After a few mid and high clouds late this evening into the overnight, scattered clouds around 4-6 kft will also be possible on Thursday afternoon across the north. Outlook: Between 00Z-12Z Friday, there is the potential for MVFR and possibly even IFR ceilings toform across all terminals except for FAY before the clouds retreat to the north on Friday. Southwest wind gusts up to 25 kt will be possible Friday afternoon, followed by the chance for northerly wind gusts up to 30 kt Saturday afternoon along with light rain as a strong cold front moves through the area. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: October 14: KGSO: 85/1975 (tied as of 2pm with 85 degrees today) KRDU: 86/1985 (broken as of 2pm with 88 degrees today) KFAY: 90/1954 October 15: KGSO: 87/1985 KRDU: 88/1985 KFAY: 91/1931 October 16: KGSO: 85/1953 KRDU: 86/1925 Record High Minimum Temperatures: October 15: KGSO: 63/1985 KRDU: 66/1942 October 16: KGSO: 66/1947 KRDU: 69/1919 Latest 90 F days: GSO: 10/12/1904 RDU: 10/10/1907 FAY: 10/26/1940 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Green AVIATION...Danco/Green CLIMATE...RAH  809 FXUS63 KBIS 142356 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 656 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong northwesterly winds with gusts up to 55 mph starting Thursday morning and lingering through Thursday night. - Widespread freezing temperatures are possible across western and central North Dakota Thursday night through Friday morning. - Notably milder temperatures to end the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 656 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Organized radar echoes are present mainly in northwestern South Dakota and far southwestern North Dakota, and are gradually working further into southwestern and south central parts of the state. However, the latest model forecast soundings suggest a fair amount of dry air to overcome, with uncertainty as to just how far north saturation will occur. Based on the latest CAMs and radar trends, increased areal coverage of 20 percent PoPs mainly along and south of I94 through tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Near zonal to southwesterly flow is found over the northern Plains as we remain stuck between a two upper level features. The first, a stacked low developing over the southern Plains, is expected to lift to the east this afternoon through the evening. With an inverted surface trough stretching to the north and the increasing moisture returns up ahead of this low, there are some chances (10 to 30 percent) for light precipitation over portions of southwestern and south central North Dakota late this afternoon through early this evening. Overall QPF is expected to be light, around a few hundreths at most for any given location. The second, found to the north of the forecast area, is a stacked low/opening trough over Alberta hat progged to move into Saskatchewan overnight, lofting a cold front across the area that'll begin to turn surface winds tonight into Thursday morning. Otherwise, conditions today across western and central North Dakota are expected to remain fairly calm and dry, with partly to mostly cloudy skies everywhere but the far northwest through this afternoon and seasonable highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s are expected today. With the passage of the cold front overnight, low temperatures across the west are expected to drop as low as the lower to mid 30s west to the upper 30s to lower 40s central. With increasing winds also expected behind the passage of the cold front, we will opt to hold back on issuing a freeze headline at this time. For Thursday, the passage of the cold front and associated CAA across the area is expected to promote strong northwesterly winds through much of the day, with sustained speeds up to 30 MPH and gusts up to 50 MPH expected to mix down from a fairly well organized low to mid level jet. The strongest winds in the morning and early afternoon are anticipated to be found across the west, and especially the southwest, as the core of the jet drops down across the area. Lingering strong winds are then expected across the south central through the evening as the aforementioned cold front exists to the southeast of the forecast area. EFI values during this period are broadly around 0.8-0.9, with a shift of tails across portions of the northwest, where the core of the jet is expected to linger through the morning and afternoon. We have opted to issue a Wind Advisory for all of western and central North Dakota starting 15Z Thursday morning through 05Z Thursday night (10 AM CDT / 9 AM MDT to 12 AM CDT / 11 PM MDT). Otherwise for Thursday, a few showers will be possible across the north central into the northern James River Valley in the afternoon and evening as the opening trough dives south across Minnesota. Seasonable cool highs in the mid 40s west to mid 50s south central are expected with the cold air mass settling over the northern Plains behind the front. With rapidly diminishing winds and clearing skies overnight, lows dropping in the mid 20s to lower 30s west can be anticipated, which could promote a widespread freeze across much of the forecast area. Condition across the northern Plains are then expected to warm as we head into the end of the week as an upper level ridge builds in across the west, with forecast highs mainly in the 50s on Friday becoming highs in the 60s to lower 70s for Saturday and Sunday. Looking ahead into next week, the ensemble has moderately strong agreement (approximately 85 percent of members) on more moderate temperatures as the ridge is squashed by a northern Canadian low, with highs in the 50s and 60s forecast through the early portions of the week. A low membership, underdispersed cluster (approximately 15 percent of members, all GEFS) also exists, which instead advertises the ridge surviving through the midweek, along with seasonably warm temperatures as high as the 60s and 70s, as the influence of the northern Canadian low remains far to the north of the forecast area. Either scenario then captures a pattern shift back toward cooler and wetter weather in the extended turn as a strong Pacific low makes landfall in the southwestern CONUS and makes it way into the Great Plains Wednesday through the end of the workweek, though specifics remain uncertain this far out. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 656 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Light rain is possible mainly along and south of I94 through the night tonight, though ceilings and visibility should remain VFR. The exception being in the James River Valley where low- level stratus has yet to clear off today, though should within the next couple hours. A passing cold frontal boundary Thursday will result in strong northwesterly winds developing during the day, which will linger into the evening hours. MVFR ceilings, along with the potential for isolated showers, are expected for most of the state behind the front. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Thursday to midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ Thursday night for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013- 017>020-022-023-025-031>033-035>037-040>044-046>048-050-051- 055>062. && $$ UPDATE...Telken DISCUSSION...Adam AVIATION...Telken  822 FXUS63 KMQT 142356 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 756 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active weather returns Thursday and Friday as a deepening low pressure system works through the Great Lakes bringing periods of rain and gusty N to NW winds. - Hazardous marine weather is expected Friday. Northerly wind gusts to 50 kts are possible (25-50% chance), creating significant wave heights between 15-20 ft. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 218 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Afternoon GOES satellite imagery reveals mostly cloudy skies overhead as surface high pressure and localized ridging works into the Upper Great Lakes. A few broken streams of lake enhanced / convergent showers are noted on radar and observations in Marquette County and may be present across the northern tier of the UP through this evening. Otherwise, temps cool into the upper 30s and 40s tonight. Building sfc high pressure keeps quiet weather at bay through most of Thursday before potentially impactful weather returns through the weekend. Additional details below. The main concern of this forecast period continues to be the evolution of a surface low in the Great Lakes driven by two phasing troughs Thursday night through Friday. Operational deterministic models and their ensemble counterparts continue to be in good agreement that a ~1009 mb surface low will be placed in the vicinity of southern Lake Michigan by Thursday evening. Ample northward moisture transport and isentropic ascent ahead of the lead northern stream trough will provide enough support for widespread rain lifting into the UP Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Latest ensemble guidance continues to increase welcomed rain through Friday morning, now suggesting a 75-90% chance for at least 0.5" anywhere in the UP. Early Friday morning through Fri afternoon the surface low feature deepens while departing northeast atop the Lower Lakes, placing Upper Michigan on the northwestern flank. Strong cold air advection and stout pressure rises (upwards of 1-2mb/hr) will contribute to northerly wind speeds reaching 25-35 kts gusting 45-50 kts on Lake Superior and the adjacent lakeshores. There is still some uncertainty regarding the maximum gust potential as ensembles (NBM and ENS) have decreased the probability of Storm Force gusts in the central lake (20-50% chance) and model soundings don't highlight mixing into any 50 kts gust layers. As 850 mb temps cool between -5 to -7C, lake effect/enhanced rain on the backside of the system will provide an additional 0.25-0.5" of precip or the north wind snowbelts and upsloping locations of the west and central high terrain once system rain clears the area. Wouldn't surprise me to see some wet snow mix into areas of the interior highlands early Friday as freezing levels fall ~1000 ft AGL, though the window for any quick show of rain/snow mix is short as soundings show dry air mixing into the the DGZ and sub-cloud layer. As winds settle late Friday and dry high pressure clears skies from west to east, temperatures will drop like a rock overnight into Saturday morning, reaching the mid to low 20s for much if not all of the interior while some lakeshores may reach freezing for the first time this fall. Ridging and dry weather dominate through the rest of the weekend with the potential for another warm up / fire weather pattern Sunday into Monday. Similar to last weekend's fire weather setup, ensembles suggest a 50-75% chance for S to SW winds gusting to 35 mph in the typical downslope locations of the west and central UP and minimum RHs falling to near 30% in the interior west and central. Luckily, temperatures are only slated to peak into the 60s. Fire partners and adjacent parties should continue to monitor the forecastas containment and mop up efforts for ongoing wildfires may still be ongoing. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 756 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 MVFR cigs likely persist overnight accompanied by calm conditions as high pressure passes overhead. Periods of BKN IFR cigs are anticipated to continue at SAW the next few hours, captured in a TEMPO group. Patchy upslope drizzle may accompany these lower cigs. Conditions deteriorate down to IFR toward the end of the 0Z TAF period Thursday afternoon as another system moves in from the west. Expect rain to arrive at IWD around 16Z, followed by CMX at 19Z, and SAW around 21Z. While periods of LIFR can't be ruled out at all sites Thursday afternoon onward, probabilities were 25% or less so mention was left out. Otherwise southerly winds on Thursday hold around 5 kts with gusts around 10 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 218 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Lake Superior: Periods of breezy 15-25 kt NW gusts persist mainly across the eastern half of the lake through this evening. Winds briefly lay down below 15kts tonight into early Thursday before becoming southerly and gusting to around 15-20kts ahead of a strong cold front Thursday night into Friday morning. This strong cold front accompanies a deepening low pressure system that works through the Lower Great Lakes on Friday. Strong cold advection and rapid pressure rises will create sustained winds near gale force with gusts reaching 40-50 kts in the central lake Friday morning. Significant wave heights build between 15-20 feet, highest along the southern lakeshores. Winds and waves slowly subside lake into early Saturday. A Gale Watch is in effect for the entire lake on Friday. Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: Breezy NW winds near 15-20 kts persist through this afternoon, falling below 15kts later this evening. Winds turn southerly Thursday ahead of a strong cold front that whips through the northern bay and lake late Thurs- early Fri. Northwest winds quickly ramp up between 35-40 kts Friday with waves building between 5-8 ft. Winds and waves subside below gale force into Saturday. A Gale Watch is in effect for all N Lake Michigan marine zones on Friday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Watch from late Thursday night through Friday afternoon for LSZ162-240>242-263. Gale Watch from late Thursday night through Friday afternoon for LSZ243-244-264. Gale Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for LSZ245>251-265>267. Lake Michigan... Gale Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for LMZ221-248-250. && $$ DISCUSSION...BW AVIATION...77 MARINE...BW/LC