076 FXUS63 KGLD 150001 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 601 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light to occasionally moderate rain likely tonight through Thursday morning. - Windy on Thursday with gusts up to 40 mph likely. Low probabilities of gusts greater than 50 mph in northeast Colorado as well as blowing dust. - Threat for first frost and freeze of the season increasing for Friday and Saturday mornings. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 153 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Current mid-level water vapor imagery shows mainly southwest flow aloft, with a low west of the Rocky Mountains. Persistent northeast surface winds have kept conditions cool and cloudy with scattered light rain showers and mist throughout the county warning area (CWA). Showers will decrease in coverage throughout the afternoon and pick up again after sunset. Patchy fog and mist are possible overnight as easterly/northeasterly winds will keep conditions moist across the area. Chances for rain showers will persist through Thursday evening. Storm total precipitation is expected to be around 0.50 inches for the CWA. Across the northeastern CWA, the LREF has around a 20% chance of storm total precipitation exceeding 1 inch through Thursday evening. For Thursday, conditions are expected to remain cool and cloudy with high temperatures forecast in the 50s. A strong jet streak is forecast to move across our region. Winds will start to pick up early Thursday morning. Mostly northwesterly winds with gusts around 30 mph are expected throughout the area. Counties along and west of the Colorado/Kansas border could see gusts around 45 mph. Winds will start to calm down around midnight, but breezy conditions with gusts around 25 mph are possible through Friday morning. Areas that receive little to no precipitation could see localized blowing dust accompanying the stronger winds. Conditions are expected to remain cloudy until Thursday evening. If clouds clear sooner, the risk for strong winds will increase as stronger winds will be able to mix down to the surface. If cloud cover remains thick or fails to clear, the overall wind threat could diminish. Clear skies Thursday night will set the stage for our potential first frost/freeze event overnight into Friday morning. Low temperatures are forecast in the high 20s to 30s. A Freeze Watch has been issued for counties along and west of the Colorado/Kansas border, including Dundy county in Nebraska. Current NBM probabilities have our Colorado counties around a 70% chance of temperatures below 32 F. The line of counties east of the Colorado/Kansas and Colorado/Nebraska border have a 20-40% chance of temperatures below 32 F, with chances increasing east to west. Breezy conditions and cool temperatures continue Friday with high temperatures forecast in the 50s. Gusts around 30 mph are possible as the jet streak over our area from Thursday continues to traverse east. Clear skies are expected to persist throughout the day, so we have another chance of temperatures below freezing overnight into Saturday. Relative humidity (RH) values are forecast to drop into the low 20s for the western CWA Friday and continue to trend down into the mid teens on Saturday. These may drop further depending on how the precipitation and winds pan out for Thursday, so fire weather potential going into the weekend will be something to monitor for. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 256 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Synoptically, we find ourselves in northwest flow aloft on Saturday as a ridge develops over the eastern Rockies/northern Plains. The upper-level pattern will briefly shift westerly then southwesterly flow Sunday as this system propagates eastward across the north- central CONUS. Winds aloft should remain from the southwest until a shortwave passage shifts them to be briefly zonal or west- northwestward on Monday. After this, ensemble guidance suggests more ridging building in Tuesday which insinuates southwest upper-level flow once again. Descending to the surface, high pressure is forecasted Saturday through late Sunday. A weak low, associated with the shortwave, should then move across the County Warning Area (CWA) Monday. No frontal boundaries are anticipated with the overall system over the four-day forecast period, therefore limiting any precipitation chances to shortwave passages. It is likely to be dry Saturday through Tuesday as current Probability of Precipitation (PoP) guidance has 5% or less for the entire long-term period. High temperatures Saturday should be on the more seasonable side, with general 60s and low 70s expected throughout the CWA. Sunday/Monday should see a bit of a warmup as 70s across the board are anticipated. Said warmup should culminate in upper 70s for Tuesday. Low overnight temperatures are what we will have to watch for this timeframe as well. Many locales have a strong chance to see their first frost/freeze of the season this Saturday with low temperatures projected to bottom out in the low 30s. Guidance currently has a range of 30-33 degrees for the entire CWA. Looking ahead, lows Sunday through Tuesday are expected to sit in the 40s in some locations and upper 30s in others, so freeze potential will be unlikely those mornings. Fire weather potential will continued to be monitored throughout the week. Currently, there is a low chance of critical fire weather conditions being met in eastern Colorado on Saturday, according to guidance. Relative Humidity (RH) values possibly reaching 14/15% is in the mix on Saturday for areas west of US-385. Simultaneously, southerly surface winds are expected to peak around 20-25 mph, gusting 35-40 mph. For the rest of the forecast period, RH values reaching the upper teens is likely Sunday and Monday for our eastern Colorado counties. Northerly winds, shifting southeast with the shortwave passage, generally 5-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph is expected. Tuesday's RHs and winds are not expected to be of concern for fire weather in eastern Colorado. Elsewhere in the CWA, RH values in the 20-40% range is likely through the weekend and into next week. General winds of 5-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph is expected. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 559 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 KGLD: Lowering stratus has deteriorated conditions into IFR at KGLD over the last half hour. Conditions are not forecast to improve much during the critical TAF time, as showers could set in as early as 01Z and drop visibilities and ceilings further. Showers are expected to drop conditions to LIFR by around 04Z. Conditions will start to improve as showers move out of the area just before sunrise, though stratus is expected to remain through the period. Additionally, there are indications that a low level jet may produce some wind shear near the end of the TAF period, though confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF at this time. KMCK: Stratus has allowed conditions at KMCK to float between IFR and LIFR conditions over the past half hour, alongside mist dropping visibilities down as low as 1 1/2SM. This may continue over the next couple of hours until showers move in around 02Z and allow LIFR conditions to prevail for the remainder of the critical TAF time. Guidance suggests that conditions will not improve until around sunrise when showers are beginning to move out of the area. MVFR ceilings and higher visibilities are expected to be in place by the early afternoon. Additionally, some guidance indicates the presence of a low level jet producing wind shear near the end of the TAF period, though confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF at this time. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for KSZ001-013-027-041. CO...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for NEZ079. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rhoades LONG TERM...024/AMP AVIATION...Davis  178 FXAK67 PAJK 150003 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 403 PM AKDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - A larger, more impactful system to move into the Gulf Wednesday night, impacting SE AK overnight into Thursday and through the start of the weekend. - A Flood Watch is in effect for the southern panhandle with rain rates as high as 0.25 to 0.3 inches per hour possible. - Winds will continue to increase Thursday into the weekend. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the southern panhandle. && .SHORT TERM...A strong system in the western Gulf will bring embedded lows up into the eastern Gulf, bringing multiple rounds of heavy rainfall associated with fronts moving through. The first wave is expected to move in overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning, bringing some higher rainfall to the central and northern panhandle initially before pushing eastward through the afternoon, alongside some elevated winds associated with the front across the outer coastal areas, southern panhandle, and up to around the Juneau area. The next shortwave will push up into the panhandle Thursday evening, with the main push of moisture and strongest setup bringing heavy rainfall into the central and southern panhandle, with the highest rainfall amounts expected south of Frederick Sound through early Friday morning. This second front will bring more impactful winds across the area, with potential for 20-30 mph winds and gusts of 40- 50 mph in some areas as the front pushes through Thursday night. Overall the forecast remains on track for this system, though the increased gusty winds and continued confidence on the area of heaviest rainfall brings the possibility of isolated landslides now for locations south of Frederick Sound. For more information, read the Hydrology section below and keep updated with any updates to the Flood Watch products at weather.gov/juneau. .LONG TERM... Active weather continues for the long term as low pressure continues to remain in the Gulf for the start of the weekend. With the low staying in place, some onshore flow will continue allowing for moisture to remain across the area. Guidance today has moved away from the idea of the remnants of Typhoon Koguma impacting the panhandle for the weekend. Instead, GEFS and EPS are pointing towards the low moving into British Columbia. The main low that has been affecting the panhandle will still be in the area bringing increased winds across the southern panhandle. Moving into the start of next week, guidance still has some good divergence on model outputs but conditions could remain somewhat active although there is a chance we see a break in the weather before another low looks to potentially move into the western Gulf by Monday evening. && .AVIATION.../through 00z Saturday/ No major changes to ongoing forecast this afternoon. Predominate VFR flight conditions across the panhandle with CIGS AoA 3500ft with pockets of MVFR ceilings around 2000 to 3000ft. Conditions will begin to deteriorate from 06-09z, persisting through the rest of the TAF period until Thursday afternoon as a strong low in the W Gulf of Alaska sends the first of two fronts into the panhandle. The worst flight conditions through Thursday will centered around the southern terminals, from Sitka to Petersburg southward to Ketchikan and over to Klawock with MVFR condition and periods of IFR visibilities due to heavy rainfall, sustained winds 20 to 30kts with gusts up to 40kts, and likely periods of strong LLWS increasing through 00z upwards of 50kts near 2kft. Further north, for Juneau and terminals along the Icy Strait Corridor and over to Yakutat, predominant MVFR flight conditions, sustained winds 10 to 20kts with gusts up to 30kts, increasingpotential for LLWS around 35 to 45 kts after 12z Thursday morning with moderate to heavy rainfall expected to persist through the day. Best flight conditions across the area will be near Haines and Skagway, with MVFR to low end VFR flight conditions and winds around 10 to 20kts albeit some wind shifts expected 18 to 22z Thursday afternoon. Simply put, flight conditions deteriorate to predominate MVFR overnight Wednesday and continue through Thursday with moderate to heavy rainfall, strongest wind gusts up to 40 kts across the southern terminals, and likely widespread LLWS across much of the area. && .MARINE... Outer waters: Main changes to the ongoing forecast is the expansion of storm force winds off the coast southwest of the Fairweather Range beginning tonight and continuing into the morning hours of Thursday. As this front pushes northward, the area of highest winds will shift near Cape St. Elias before diminishing. As for the rest of the front, widespread strong gales for much of the outside waters will persist through the late morning, before focusing around the Dixon Entrance area through Friday morning. Long duration gale force winds for Dixon Entrance are due to multiple wave of energy moving up along the front. Wave height corresponding with highest wind speeds could reach between 23-25 ft, both from ESE wind waves and 20 ft at 11 seconds southerly swell, maximizing Thursday morning. Expecting to see 15-20 ft waves in the Dixon Entrance area Thursday and Thursday night, largely driven by a longer fetch up Clarence Strait and persistant gale force winds. Inside Waters: A strong atmospheric river moves into over the panhandle beginning tonight, with inside channel wind speeds beginning to react substantially early Thursday morning. Expect to see largely strong breezes to near gales in most inner channel waters with the exception of Glacier Bay and Northern Lynn Canal. For those areas, expecting aloft winds to be too weak to meaningfully increase wind speeds greater than 15 knots, with Lynn Canal likely flipping northerly as the front moves northward through the central panhandle. On the secondary system moving in on Thursday night, may see shifting winds on the north two quadrants of the low, Stephens Passage area and a majority of Chatham Strait. Extreme southern Chatham Strait (near ocean entrances), Sumner Strait, and northern Clarence Strait are all expected to see a rapid wind shift from SE to the WSW, possibly associated with convective storms, gusty winds, and a few lightning strikes. && .HYDROLOGY.../Wednesday night through Friday morning/ A strong incoming atmospheric river will move into the panhandle beginning early Thursday morning and continuing through Friday morning. Two distinct frontal features make up a bulk of the heavy rain for the central and southern panhandle: The first during Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon, and the next Thursday evening into Friday morning. Confidence for the precipitation amounts and gusty conditions following into Thursday night has increased, with guidance narrowing in on an area extending from Petersburg and Wrangell down to Ketchikan and Metlakatla. IVT values look to range between 500-750 kg/ms, with more confidence on the area moving into the panhandle leaning towards 750 kg/ms for both waves, with the second wave still appearing to push from the south into the southern panhandle. Ketchikan and Metlakatla continue to be the target of opportunity here, with rain rates possibly exceeding 0.3 inches per hour, and up to 0.25 inches elsewhere. These rates are expected to be sufficient enough for at least minor flooding on small creeks and streams, particularly given the duration of the event. Alongside these heavy rainfall amounts looking to be around 5 year return intervals for the southern panhandle, the increased confidence on elevated winds of 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 40-50 mph associated with the second wave brings the possibility of isolated landslides occuring in areas south of Frederick Sound. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 1 PM AKDT Thursday for AKZ322. Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM AKDT Thursday for AKZ323-325-327- 328. Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon for AKZ326>330-332. Wind Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 4 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ329- 330-332. MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ644-663-664-671-672. Gale Warning for PKZ021-031-034-036-641>643-651-652-661-662. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-022-032-033-035-053. && $$ SHORT TERM...Contino LONG TERM...SF AVIATION...NM MARINE...NC HYDROLOGY...Contino Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  141 FXUS65 KGJT 150002 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 602 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Valley rain and mountain snow will continue through tonight, with snow favoring the central and northern Colorado mountains. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect. - Cool temperatures can be expected over the next several days with sub freezing nighttime temperatures forecast across northwest Colorado and other mountain valley areas on Thursday night. A Freeze Watch is in effect Thursday night through Friday morning. - Drier weather is expected Thursday through most of the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 112 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT: Satellite imagery shows that the low pressure system that is bringing widespread rain and mountain snow is currently centered over southwestern Colorado. The low will move across western Colorado today and will be centered over eastern Colorado by Thursday morning. Snowfall was observed this morning over some mountain passes and higher terrain areas, such as the San Juan Mountains and the Grand Mesa, but sunrise and the subsequent increase in temperatures transitioned snowfall to rainfall in many of these areas. However, snowfall is still the likely precipitation type at the highest elevations, and a transition from rain to snow or a rain/snow mix is expected this evening and tonight where precipitation occurs in the mountains. The bulk of the total expected snowfall for the southern Colorado mountians fell earlier today while forcing from the low was more favorable in this area. However, 1 to 3 inches of additional snowfall is possible over the highest terrain of the southern mountains. The central and northern mountains are expected to receive 4 to 8 inches of snow along the highest terrain as forcing becomes more favorable in this area through the remainder of the day. Elevation-based Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect through 6 PM for the southern Colorado mountains, and through 6 AM Thursday for the central and northern Colorado mountains. COOL AND DRY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK: Drier air moves into the region after the low pressure system moves east of the Rocky Mountains on Thursday morning. The current forecast keeps precipitation chances low Thursday afternoon through Sunday, especially outside of the higher terrain areas. A much cooler airmass is left in its wake, and could lead to the first hard freeze of the year across northwest Colorado and some mountain valleys on Thursday night. Confidence in these overnight temperatures has increased, so a Freeze Watch has been issued for Thursday night through Friday morning. Overnight low temperatures warm slightly after Thursday night, but may still fall below freezing in some areas of northwest Colorado and in mountain valleys. High temperatures will increase daily, but will still remain below normal through the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 541 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue into the overnight period along with low ceilings and visibility. Snow is occurring at higher elevation sites including KASE, KEGE, KTEX, and KHDN. Fog may develop overnight especially in the mountain valleys but confidence in exact timing and location is low. Expect below ILS breakpoints at mountain TAF sites through the evening hours with MVRF/IFR possible in heavier showers. Conditions will begin to improve Thursday morning into the afternoon. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for COZ001-002-005-008-023. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Thursday for COZ004-009-010-012-013. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ018- 019. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TGJT AVIATION...RJ/TGJT  224 FXUS63 KDMX 150005 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 705 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers gradually move in southwest to northeast tonight, becoming more widespread rain during the day Thursday. Rain gradually ends in the west Thursday night with wrap-around showers possible through Friday afternoon in the north and east. - Becoming windy and much cooler by Thursday night into Friday. Winds out of the north gusting to at least 35-45 mph at times. - Frost is likely early Saturday with morning lows in the low to mid 30s. - Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions expected this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Surface high pressure continues to nudge into the region this afternoon, moving off to the northeast tonight. Cloud cover remains in much of the state and has kept temperatures down in the 50s to low 60s as expected. A few sites with a bit more clearing have climbed into the mid 60s in eastern Iowa. Dry conditions continue for a couple more hours before light rain showers begin to kick off late this afternoon into evening as theta-e advection increases ahead of the approaching upper trough/low. This upper low was analyzed just north of the Four Corners region around midday today and is expected to cross through the Central Plains during the day Thursday. A strong upper trough coming out of Canada will also move southward during the day Thursday ultimately absorbing the other upper low and becoming a strong, deepening upper trough that crosses through much of the central U.S. from later Thursday through Friday. Moisture gradually builds tonight through Thursday and although the deepest moisture remains to the south of our area, pwats will be around 1.25-1.75 during the daytime Thursday as the lee side surface low moves through the region changing our showery activity that gradually moves southwest to northeast from this evening/tonight to more widespread rain from early Thursday morning through the afternoon. A few rumbles of thunder may be possible at times, especially in southern Iowa. Rain gradually ends Thursday night into Friday morning from the initial system but some wrap around precipitation from the 2nd system to the north may bring some additional rain showers to especially northern/northeast/east central Iowa on Friday morning. Have slowed down the PoP departure (or reintroduced in some cases) to account for these additional rain chances on Friday morning. Rain totals through the entire event are not wild, largely below to around 1" with more localized areas of 1-2". The rainy and cloudy conditions Thursday will be paired with temperatures held down largely in the 50s for most locations and in the 60s for areas far south/southeast. Strong cold air advection will be brought into the area as the system to the north passes sending temperatures falling into the 30s to 40s by Friday morning. Conditions will feel even colder as winds out of the north also increase from Thursday night through Friday morning with gusts peaking at least in the 35-45 mph range, some higher gusts are certainly possible prior to winds gradually decreasing through the afternoon and evening Friday as the pressure gradient relaxes. High temperatures in the 50s will feel even colder with the strong, gusty winds. Time to find those jackets! && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Surface high pressure returns later Friday night into Saturday morning leading to light winds, clear skies and good radiational cooling. Temperatures by Saturday morning will be in the low to mid 30s with frost conditions likely so makeplans now to protect any sensitive vegetation! With the surface high and an upper ridge in place, dry conditions are expected for the weekend. Temperatures begin to rebound again by later Saturday into Sunday as southwest flow returns. This translates to gradually increasing highs this weekend into early next week with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s Saturday, mid to upper 60s Sunday and then Monday, and in the low to mid 70s Tuesday-Wednsday. The GFS brings a small system near to through the region on Monday but the going forecast remains dry until mid to later next week when there is a bit more consensus for returning precipitation chances. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 705 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 A mixture of MVFR and VFR ceilings are forecast this evening before clouds become widespread and lower into MVFR restrictions overnight. As showers begin after midnight and especially during the daylight hours on Thursday, ceilings and visibilities will lower into IFR restrictions, which has persisted in guidance. Some guidance, namely LAMP and HREF, are showing 20 to 40% chance of LIFR restrictions - likely during periods of persistent rain - and may need to add this in some manner in future issuances. Thunder continues to look unlikely. As winds become from the northwest and increase in the afternoon, showers will come to an end from southwest to northeast. While this will mean improving visibilities, have maintained IFR/MVFR ceilings through the end of the period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...Ansorge  256 FXUS63 KMPX 150005 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 705 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler, more seasonable, temperatures through Friday with warmer above normal temperatures returning this weekend into next week. - Next chance for widespread rain on Thursday, most likely across southern Minnesota and western WI with chances decreasing to the northwest. - Widespread frost/freeze Friday night into Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 334 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 With a surface high limiting mechanical mixing and this mornings sounding at MPX showing a strong inversion, stratus has been slow to break up today. This has really limited temperature rises today, with most of the area seeing highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s, or 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Water vapor imagery and h5 analysis this afternoon shows us what our next concern is and that is the two waves heading our way. The northern stream wave is a shortwave coming across Alberta, with a southern stream wave in the form of an h5 low over the 4-corners. These two features will phase Thursday over the central CONUS, causing a surface low to deepen. This surface low will be a panhandle hook type system, with the southern stream wave driving a surface low from the TX panhandle to northern Illinois during the day on Thursday into Thursday night. There will be a healthy deformation band of precip to the northwest of the low track, with the heaviest precip falling across Iowa into southern WI. Still, the northern edge of this precipitation shield will come into southern MN, which will setup the southeast to northwest gradient in rainfall amounts we're expecting. We've seen a slight uptick in precip amounts along that Albert Lea to Eau Claire line, with amounts up around 0.75" depicted on the REFS. This falls to around 0.25" in the Twin Cities, a couple hundredths in St. Cloud, and nothing at Alexandria (until Thursday night with the potential for wrap around precip in the strong CAA regime). Besides the rain, the northern stream will bring in some strong CAA Thursday night, with wind gusts upwards of 45mph out of the northwest possible out in our typical windy areas of west central through south central MN. Following this will come a quick blast of cooler air as a 1040mb high comes out of the Rockies. This will set us up for our coldest morning of the Fall so far on Saturday morning. This will be our first widespread freeze of the season outside of the core of the Twin Cities urban metro area. Even for the Twin Cities, this will likely be the first time the low drops below 40 this season. For a freeze, we're in the ballpark of the 90th percentile for a late freeze (so 90% of falls have seen a first freeze earlier than this). For MSP, the latest we've had our first sub-40 reading in the fall was October 17th back in 1931, which also happens to be the day Saturday falls on this year, so why lot tack on the latest first sub- 40 low of the Fall on to the latest 90 on record for this October. After Friday, we're back into ridging and mild southerly winds. In fact, the NBM has southerly winds of some variety remaining in place from Saturday through Wednesday. This will setup another stretch of very pleasant fall weather. H85 temperatures will be running up around +10C starting Sunday, with large swaths of the MPX area likely to see highs in the low to mid 70s starting Sunday and likely lasting through much of next week. As for the end of the week, models have been hinting at a stronger system moving across the central CONUS. It's still there, but to no surprise, we're seeing the models slowing down the demise of our ridge, with that next fropa and chances for more widespread precipitation now gettingpushed out toward next weekend (24th/25th). Given what we've had so far and the fact that the only sign of cold air this month is what we'll see Thursday night through Friday night, it's certainly looking more plausible that the warmest October on record could be in play this year. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 646 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 MVFR cigs continue to retreat westward this evening with AXN and RWF remaining under the cloud deck. Sites east can expect VFR conditions overnight with light and variable winds. Kept AXN and RWF in MVFR for now as latest RAP soundings maintained sub-3kft cigs in those locations. Our attention shifts to tomorrow's rain event which is expected to provide light to moderate rainfall through much of the daylight hours Thursday. Timing for precip remains mostly unchanged since the last TAF, however did add tempos for RNH and EAU for MVFR vsby tomorrow afternoon. After the rainfall ends from west to east, winds shift NW and gusts rapidly increase between 20-30kts through the end of the period. KMSP...MVFR cigs have finally pushed west of the field and are expected to remain in VFR overnight with light and variable winds. Rain showers move in as early as 13z tomorrow morning with MVFR cigs likely. Maintained mention of prob30 of 5SM -RA for any heavier rain that could impact the field. Confidence for heaviest rainfall remains south. Once rain ends (~00z) winds shift NW'ly and quickly become gusty between 25-30kts for the remainder of the period. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...Chc MVFR cigs early. Wind NW 20-25G35kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G25kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G20kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MPG AVIATION...Dunleavy  246 FXUS65 KGJT 150005 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 605 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Valley rain and mountain snow will continue through tonight, with snow favoring the central and northern Colorado mountains. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect. - Cool temperatures can be expected over the next several days with sub freezing nighttime temperatures forecast across northwest Colorado and other mountain valley areas on Thursday night. A Freeze Watch is in effect Thursday night through Friday morning. - Drier weather is expected Thursday through most of the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 603 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Snow has begun to taper off across the San Juan mountains this evening, and additional snow accumulations are expected to be minimal. Therefore the Winter Weather Advisory has been allowed to expire. Occasional snow showers will continue through tomorrow morning, with the potential to bring brief heavy snow and reduced visibility over mountain passes. Use caution if travelling this evening or overnight. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Central and Northern Divide ranges above 9500 feet through tomorrow morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 112 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT: Satellite imagery shows that the low pressure system that is bringing widespread rain and mountain snow is currently centered over southwestern Colorado. The low will move across western Colorado today and will be centered over eastern Colorado by Thursday morning. Snowfall was observed this morning over some mountain passes and higher terrain areas, such as the San Juan Mountains and the Grand Mesa, but sunrise and the subsequent increase in temperatures transitioned snowfall to rainfall in many of these areas. However, snowfall is still the likely precipitation type at the highest elevations, and a transition from rain to snow or a rain/snow mix is expected this evening and tonight where precipitation occurs in the mountains. The bulk of the total expected snowfall for the southern Colorado mountians fell earlier today while forcing from the low was more favorable in this area. However, 1 to 3 inches of additional snowfall is possible over the highest terrain of the southern mountains. The central and northern mountains are expected to receive 4 to 8 inches of snow along the highest terrain as forcing becomes more favorable in this area through the remainder of the day. Elevation-based Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect through 6 PM for the southern Colorado mountains, and through 6 AM Thursday for the central and northern Colorado mountains. COOL AND DRY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK: Drier air moves into the region after the low pressure system moves east of the Rocky Mountains on Thursday morning. The current forecast keeps precipitation chances low Thursday afternoon through Sunday, especially outside of the higher terrain areas. A much cooler airmass is left in its wake, and could lead to the first hard freeze of the year across northwest Colorado and some mountain valleys on Thursday night. Confidence in these overnight temperatures has increased, so a Freeze Watch has been issued for Thursday night through Friday morning. Overnight low temperatures warm slightly after Thursday night, but may still fall below freezing in some areas of northwest Colorado and in mountain valleys. High temperatures will increase daily, but will still remain below normal through the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 541 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue into the overnight period along with low ceilings and visibility. Snow is occurring at higher elevation sites including KASE, KEGE, KTEX, and KHDN. Fog may develop overnight especially in the mountain valleys but confidence in exact timing and location is low. Expect below ILS breakpoints at mountain TAF sites through the evening hours with MVRF/IFR possible in heavier showers. Conditions will begin to improve Thursday morning into the afternoon. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for COZ001-002-005-008-023. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Thursday for COZ004-009- 010-012-013. UT...None. && $$ UPDATE...BGB/TGJT DISCUSSION...TGJT AVIATION...RJ/TGJT  897 FXUS63 KLSX 150013 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 713 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected late tonight into Thursday morning. - Additional, potential shower and thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening could include a severe thunderstorm or two with isolated damaging winds and, conditionally, a brief tornado. - Behind a cold front Thursday night, temperatures will become much cooler and seasonable, with a warming trend early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Waves of widespread showers and thunderstorms have shifted much further southward into southern MO and AR this afternoon--most of which will remain to the south/southwest of the CWA through this evening aside from a few light showers or sprinkles. The effective front has also been pushed south of the CWA by this activity, leading to a much cooler day beneath considerable cloud cover, but high temperatures in the upper 60s and 70s F are still above average for mid-October. Not only that, but dewpoints are still running above the 90th climatological percentile, leading to an atypical mugginess. In response to the northeastward ejection of an upper-level trough currently over the Four Corners Region, the aforementioned front will advance northward tonight into Thursday as surface cyclogenesis ensues near the NM-TX border. A wing of associated low to mid-level isentropic ascent/WAA will drive a broad area of showers and thunderstorms that lifts northeastward through the CWA late tonight into Thursday morning. With thunderstorms anticipated to be quite progressive, flash flooding is unlikely but brief high rainfall rates are anticipated from near-record breaking PW around 2". The majority of morning showers and thunderstorms will continue to lift northward and end from south to north Thursday morning ahead of a surface cyclone tracking northeastward across MO through the day. There is variability in model guidance on how deep/mature the cyclone gets and how far the warm front lifts and warm sector expands across the CWA. These details along with the amount of lingering cloud cover will have ramifications on temperatures, instability, and more importantly how thunderstorms redevelop during the afternoon. With 40 to 50 kt of deep-layer wind shear, there is a concern for severe thunderstorms if enough instability becomes available. Upward trends in successive runs of the HREF and REFS SBCAPE is slowly increasing confidence in sufficient instability with the interquartile range now around 1000 to nearly 2000 J/kg in the warm sector. Timing, coverage, and location of thunderstorms is not clear, but the most favored location would be near east-central MO into IL where convergence is greater near the surface cyclone. Surface winds are projected to be veering in the warm sector, but backed winds near the warm front just ahead of the cyclone could increase low-level hodograph curvature enough for a brief tornado. Otherwise, isolated damaging winds are the greatest threat in a mixed mode of QLCS segments and supercells, with potential additional development along the trailing cold front southward through the evening. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 The cold front will progress eastward Thursday evening into overnight, but some showers could linger behind the front well into into the night along/east of I-44/I-55. The primary impact of the front will be the onset of strong low-level CAA that persists through the day Friday. In fact, Friday's calendar day high temperature will be at midnight with temperatures falling and then wavering in the 40s and 50s F through the day Friday beneath insolation limited by extensive stratocumulus and even isolated showers in the cyclonic flow region beneath the main upper-level trough. Occasional northwesterly winds gusting 25 to 35 mph will further exacerbate the chill of these much cooler temperatures. The seasonable cool airmass will support high temperatures in the 50s and low-60s F on Saturday and low temperatures in the mid-30s to low-40s F Saturday morning and Sunday morning. Uncertainties in lingering cloud cover Friday night and the positioning of a surface anticyclone decrease confidence in how widespread frost will be those mornings, dependent on how optimal radiational cooling and BL decoupling are. It is worth noting that global ensemble model and NBM-based probabilities of low temperatures below 36 F, a reasonable proxy for initial frost formation, have been slowly increasing for low-lying and rural areas. Global model guidance is in good agreement that a warming trend back to above average will take place Sunday through early next week as the anticyclone migrates to the east and weak but persistent low- level WAA begins. In the southwesterly upper-level flow pattern, model guidance is having a more difficult time resolving a potential passing upper-level trough that only a small amount (<15 percent) of ensemble membership has producing light showers in minimal moisture return. Therefore, dry conditions are more than likely to prevail through the weekend and early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Low ceilings will spread northeast into the area overnight tonight ahead of an approaching warm front. Chances of showers and a few thunderstorms will also accompany the front, with IFR visibilities possible in heavier downpours. Look for improving conditions after the passage of the warm front with winds veering more to the south. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Pfahler LONG TERM...Pfahler AVIATION...Gosselin  979 FXUS63 KIWX 150015 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 815 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler conditions for tonight with a break in the greater rain shower coverage expected into Thursday morning. More showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday into Thursday night. - There is a Marginal Risk of severe storms (mainly wind) along and south of US Route 24 for Thursday evening. Confidence in severe weather is low. - Turning much cooler and windy for Friday with some lake effect rain showers expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Surface cold frontal boundary has cleared southern portions of the forecast area this afternoon. The low level baroclinic zone is not expected to make much more additional southward progress into this evening as broad upper troughing across southern Ontario/Great Lakes region pushes east allowing some induced short wave upper ridging to build into the region downstream of larger scale cut- off low. Some isolated showers are possible through late afternoon/early evening with weakening frontal zone across the south, but otherwise prospects for additional rainfall tonight look to be on the low side given southward frontal push and break in stronger short wave forcing. Water vapor this imagery this afternoon depicts two features that will be watched over the next 48 hours including a cut-off upper level low across SW CO and a more progressive vort max spilling down eastern side of western Canadian upper trough. Present indications still suggest a phasing of these features Thursday evening across the Corn Belt and Upper Midwest. Isentropic progs of 300-305K layer do indicate a rapid uptick in isentropic forcing toward late morning/midday. This evolution will allow the higher level theta-e air to return northward, particularly by Thursday evening. Showers with some embedded storms are expected to accompany this stronger advective push Thursday afternoon. Despite the strong advection, a strong low level inversion will develop in response and thus sensible warming at the surface likely to be more limited keeping highs in the 60s (possibly return of some low 70s late day/toward evening across the south). Severe weather is not expected during the day Thursday given weak mid/upper level forcing outside of the strong advective forcing and due to the elevated nature of the instability. For Thursday night, the aforementioned upstream facing should begin to induce cyclogenesis of associated low pressure, however some subtle but important trends in guidance have been noted. A subtle trend of slightly more positive tilt with the upper trough appears to be suggesting sfc low deepening rates will be a little less impressive and more delayed than earlier indications. Robust shear profiles will develop ahead of primary low/sfc cold front but northward extent of a quality narrow warm sector remains uncertain, especially considering the trend of less rapid sfc feature deepening. There does still appear to be a narrow temporal window for weak near sfc instability across the south depending on extent of warm frontal progression, but hi res ensemble means still support best surface-based and mixed-layer CAPE remaining across central/southern IN. Only minor changes were made to SWODY2 with a Marginal Risk of severe storms persisting south of US 24, and mainly for the evening hours Thursday. Some isolated wind/tornado risk is possible where some weak MLCAPE can overspread given background low and deep layer shear, but current parameter space would tend to be more supportive of isolated severe threat southwest/south of local area from southern IL into central IN. Another limiting factor for severe potential could be more delayed impressive dynamics due to the weak positive tilt of this system. Otherwise, some brief locally heavy rain is possible with highly anomalous 1.75+ inch PWATs working into the area ahead of the overnight cold frontal passage. Friday still appears to be blustery/windy day with strong cold advection on the back side of this system. This should lead to development of lake effect rain showers and a potential of mixing down some stronger wind gusts. With deepening rates of this system perhaps a bit weaker than earlier indications and some suggestion of a Great Lakes modification of secondary low level trough late in the day, guidance has backed off a bit on gust magnitude during the day, but would suspect some gusts to 30 to 35 mph would be possible. A few gusts approaching 40 mph appear most likely near immediate Lake Michigan shoreline. Given cold advection, temperatures are not likely to move much from morning levels with near steady temps in the 50s expected. No major changes have been made to the long term forecast as below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend. Low temperatures in the 30s are still on track with a potential of patchy frost. The Friday night potential remains somewhat more uncertain as some lingering lake effect clouds could persist across the west, while winds may not full decouple across the east. Saturday night still appears to be best chance of patchy frost depending on extent of southwest return flow with departing high pressure. Mid/upper level flow is still progged to rapidly deamplify early next week which will result in conditions warming to above normal levels into the lower 70s toward the end of the period. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 753 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Brief period of VFR/MVFR alternating tonight into early tomorrow, eventually deteriorating to MVFR/IFR as a low pressure system moves into the area during the afternoon. More persistent rain showers beginning in the 18-21z time frame and beyond the TAF period. Thunderstorms are possible, closer to 21-00z. Handled with prob30 groups for now given it's later in the period. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Marsili AVIATION...MCD  042 FXUS64 KOHX 150016 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 716 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 716 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Unseasonably warm weather will last through Thursday with record highs possible. - There are medium to high rain/storm chances this afternoon and evening along and north of I-40. - A dry, breezy cold front will arrive on Friday, bringing much cooler temperatures this weekend and into next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 716 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to make their way into Middle Tennessee, and should move through by midnight. Otherwise, expect lows in the 60s tonight after the rain moves out. Forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1057 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Record temperatures are expected today and again tomorrow as strong high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern across Middle Tennessee both at the surface and aloft. A surface boundary is lurking not far to our northwest, but it will be another 48 hours or so before the cold front actually comes through Middle Tennessee. In the meantime, we expect convection to begin developing by early afternoon today and continue into the evening owing to the close proximity of the surface boundary, existing atmospheric instability and record precipitable water values for this date. Most of the convection will remain north of I-40, and QPF values overall are quite modest, although isolated spots could receive brief, heavy rainfall. Fortunately, the risk of any severe storms remains very low. The primary impact today and tomorrow is going to be the heat. Temperatures tomorrow will likely be even warmer than today's as warm air piles up against the surface boundary as it crawls toward Middle Tennessee. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1057 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 We expect fropa to occur in Middle Tennessee on Friday, after which there will be a dramatic drop in temperatures. In fact, the drop will be so dramatic that some frost might actually occur Sunday morning along the Cumberland Plateau and other cool spots. Friday's fropa will be a dry one, with the exception of a few showers Friday and Friday night across portions of the Cumberland Plateau. After that, rain chances going forward are non-existent for the remainder of the 7-day forecast. Temperatures next week will rebound somewhat, but will remain pleasant and autumn-like. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 547 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 The TAF period will begin with a band of thunderstorms in northwest Middle TN, impacting CKV with periods of heavy downpours and gusty winds around 30KT through 02Z. These storms will weaken as they push eastward. Short range models keep most of the cells north of BNA and MQY, so these sites will be coded with VCTS 01-04Z. Otherwise, VFR will prevail through the taf period with south southwest winds mostly less than 10KT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 70 92 66 74 / 30 10 0 0 Clarksville 69 92 62 69 / 60 10 0 10 Crossville 64 84 62 75 / 20 10 0 10 Columbia 68 93 65 77 / 10 10 0 0 Cookeville 67 87 64 74 / 20 10 0 10 Jamestown 66 86 65 74 / 20 10 0 20 Lawrenceburg 66 90 63 78 / 10 10 0 0 Murfreesboro 68 92 65 77 / 20 10 0 0 Waverly 69 90 63 68 / 40 10 0 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Holley SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....13  082 FXUS66 KSGX 150017 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 517 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Santa Ana winds expected Thursday through Saturday, with the strongest and most widespread on Friday. Additionally, moderate to major HeatRisk is expected for coastal areas. Cooler conditions will spread inland Sunday, with greater cooling and chance of showers next Tuesday and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... We're already seeing an offshore pressure gradient from San Diego to Tonopah, NV. As of 11 AM there were weak north to northeast winds being observed with gusts mainly 20 to 25 mph, a few local gusts to 30 mph in windier locations. For Thursday, an upper level high will develop over Northern California, with low pressure retrograding back towards Southern California. That will strengthen the offshore pressure gradient and increase winds. For Friday and Saturday, that low will remain just southwest of San Diego off the coast of northern Baja, maintaining a strong offshore pressure gradient. Winds on Thursday will be mainly out of the north/northeast, with the strongest winds on the foothills and below passes in the San Bernardino and Santa Ana mountains. Winds are expected to be strongest and most widespread Friday and they develop more of an easterly component. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index on Friday has gusts in the 80th to 90th percentile and locally into the 95th to 99th percentile. Wind gusts have the potential to exceed 65 mph in the typically windy spots like near the Cajon Pass, in wind prone canyons in the Santa Ana mountains, and in wind prone spots in the San Diego mountains. Santa Ana winds could extended to coastal areas on Friday, with a 30 to 50 percent chance of local wind gusts greater than 35 mph. Winds become weaker and easterly on Saturday, with gust 30 to 40 mph in the valleys and below passes, and gusts up to 50 mph on mountain foothills and below passes. Weaker offshore winds may continue on the coastal mountain slopes Sunday with onshore flow expected to return by Monday. The location of the upper level low to the southwest of San Diego, will help keep relative humidity elevated and could elevate chances of showers in the deserts. Right now chances are 10 percent or less, with low confidence in measurable rain. High temperatures on Thursday will be a few degrees below average for the mountains and valleys with coastal areas as much as 12 to 18 degrees above average. High temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees warmer for most locations, bringing highs closer to 15 to 20 degrees above average for coastal locations. Moderate HeatRisk is expected for the coast into the western San Diego County valleys for Thursday through Saturday with Major HeatRisk for some coastal areas on Friday. Conditions will remain above average but cool a few degrees on Saturday with continued cooling west of the mountains into next week. We're monitoring the potential for precipitation Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. There remains differences in the models with the GEFS guidance trending more inside and the ECMWF showing a more westerly track. While there remains the most uncertainty in the precipitation forecast, there is higher confidence in cooler and windier conditions. && .AVIATION... 150015Z...SKC and VFR today and tonight. Areas of northeast localized winds gusting 15-20 kts in the mountain foothills increasing after 10Z with gusts 20-45 kts, spreading into inland valleys after 12Z, including into parts of the IE through the rest of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Isolated northeast gusts could exceed 20 knots Friday into early Saturday. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday. && .BEACHES... A prevailing southerly swell will continue most of this week, generating surf 3-6 feet with local sets to 7 feet, along with strong rip currents. Late morning high tides near 6.5 feet will continue through Thursday, producing minor coastal flooding. Tides are expected fall below 6.5 ft MLLW after the Thursday morning high tide, diminishing the threat for coastal flooding. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday afternoon for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas. Heat Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Saturday for Orange County Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas. High Wind Warning from 6 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Saturday for San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire. High Wind Warning from 8 PM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Saturday for San Diego County Valleys. High Wind Warning from 6 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Friday for San Bernardino County Mountains. High Wind Warning from 6 AM Thursday to midnight PDT Saturday night for Riverside County Mountains-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. High Wind Warning from 6 AM Thursday to noon PDT Saturday for Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. Wind Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to noon PDT Saturday for Orange County Inland Areas. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...CO AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Suk  294 FXUS65 KPUB 150022 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 622 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light to moderate snow accumulations for the Central Mtns this evening. - Cool and breezy Thursday, with rain and snow showers into the Pikes Peak region. - Hard Freeze for San Luis Valley tonight and Thursday night, with freezing temperatures and or frost expected across the southeast Plains Thursday night and Friday night. - Warmer and drier into early next week, with another storm system moving across the Rockies through the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 138 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has moderate to strong south to southwest flow aloft in place across the Rockies, with an upper low lifting out across southwest Colorado at this time. Regional radars have showers and embedded thunderstorms lifting out ahead of the system across the San Luis Valley into the Upper Arkansas River Valley at this time, with CDOT cams indicating snow and slushy roads at both Wolf Creek and Monarch Passes at this time. For the rest of today into tonight, said upper low continues lift out across south central and into northeastern Colorado, with banded precipitation continuing to lift out across south central and southeast Colorado. Precipitation winds down from southwest to northeast through tonight, as flow aloft becomes more west to northwest behind the passing system. Storms could bring heavy rainfall, along with small hail and gusty winds, as lapse rates and instability increase through late afternoon and evening with the upper low translating across the region. While storms will be moving, will need to monitor for possible flash flooding on the Aspen Acres burn. Otherwise, current Winter Weather Advisories for the eastern San Juan Mtns and eastern Sawatch and western Mosquito Ranges remain on track for ending at 00Z and 06Z respectively. A couple of inches of snow will also be possible across the higher terrain of Southeast Mtns and Pikes Peak region through the evening with said passing storms. Skies clear across western portions of the area overnight, leading to cold overnight lows in the 20s and 30s across the higher terrain, with current Freeze Warning for the San Luis Valley remaining on track. Further east, clouds will be slow to clear across the plains with weak easterly low level flow remaining in place. This will keep temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s across the southeast plains overnight. Moderate northerly gradient flow develops through the day tomorrow, as said upper low across northeastern Colorado continues to lift north and east into the Northern High Plains. This will develop gusty northerly winds of 20 to 40 mph across eastern Colorado tomorrow morning, with wrap around showers developing across the Pikes Peak region and the southeast mountains through the morning and afternoon. With cool air in place behind the parting system, and snow levels down to around 7000 feet, could see some light snow accumulations in the Pikes Peak region and on grassy areas along the Palmer Dvd. Highs tomorrow to remain below seasonal levels mainly in the 50s across the plains, in the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain, save for 50s across the high mountain valleys. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 138 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 With drier air working into the region and weakening gradient winds, Thursday night lows in the 20s are expected across the higher terrain, with lows in the 30s across the plains, leading to the potential for frost and the first freeze of the season across southeast Colorado. Will keep Freeze Watch in tact for northern portions of the plains for Thursday night, and may need to add areas to it, as latest model data is slightly cooler across southern portions of the southeast plains. May need to add another Freeze Watch/Warning for Friday night as well across the plains, with latest data indicating the end of the growing season becoming more likely across southern Colorado. Otherwise, warmer and drier conditions remain in the offing for the weekend into early next week, as upper level ridging builds into the region from the west. This gives way to increasing southwest flow aloft ahead of another system moving across the Great Basin bringing increasing chances of precipitation to areas along and west of the ContDvd through the middle of next week, with models differing on the timing and location of said system lifting out across the Rockies through the end of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 602 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 At KCOS, IFR cigs/vis are expected overnight, as winds keep a light ely component. Conditions should improve to VFR after 12z Thu, as northerly downslope winds increase. After 16z, expect VFR conditions with strong north winds gusting 30-40 kts. At KPUB, MVFR cigs expected overnight with light winds, then clearing after 12z Thu as downslope winds increase. North winds strengthen during the day Thu, with gusts 25-30kts after 16z. At KALS, VFR the next 24 hrs, as winds with passing upper low should keep risk of fog low. Winds overnight will keep a wly component, then a period of north winds gusting 20-25 kts. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for COZ058- 060. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Thursday for COZ069>071. Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for COZ084-085-095-096. && $$ SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...PETERSEN  400 FXUS64 KCRP 150025 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 725 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - A cold front by the end of the work week will bring cooler and drier conditions to South Texas this weekend. - Generally dry across South Texas through Thursday with a slight increase Friday associated with the cold front. - Moderate Rip Current Risk today and tonight. - Minor coastal flooding will be possible once again this weekend. - Gale conditions possible Friday night into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Ridging conditions are still expected over the area as high pressure remains over the South Texas, continuing the seasonally-warm temperatures through Thursday. With higher PWAT values of 2+ inches, there is a slight chance for scattered showers this afternoon along the coast and into the Victoria Crossroads. Relatively drier air is filtering into the western Gulf Thursday behind that high pressure with light southeasterly winds across the CWA, keeping the region warm. Temperatures will start to cool off Friday as a cold front will be making its way into South Texas, allowing for a slight 20-30% chance of scattered showers more inland before the front, with at least a 60% chance along the coastline and offshore. Winds will pick up Friday morning and will remain out of northeast with 20-25 knots well into Friday evening for the Coastal Bend, but will lighten up for the Brush Country. Highs this weekend will be around 10-20 degrees cooler and lows about 10-15 degrees cooler, with light winds through Saturday and Sunday. Unfortunately, these conditons will not last for too long as temperatures are increasing early into next week. The frontal passage this weekend will result in gale conditions through saturday night. a gale watch will likely be needed tonight into early tomorrow morning. these increased winds and seas will increase the wave energy during that time period, potentially leading to minor coastal flooding. though confidence in minor coastal flooding is low, the increase surf will likely lead to not ideal driving conditions on the beach. accordingly, rip current risk will also be elevated. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Will maintain VFR conditions across the TAF period with brief MVFR conditions expected across the COT, LRD, and ALI terminals. Furthermore, winds will remain out of the southeast but should start to subside after 00z decreasing to 15-20 knots inland across the brush country and 10-15 knots across the coastal bend and will continue to decrease into the overnight hours. Winds will gradually start to increase again throughout the mid-morning into the early afternoon hours but will not be quite as strong as the prior day with a southeast wind around 10 knots, with gusts approaching 20 knots across our inland counties to around 15 knots across the coast. && .MARINE... Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 An approaching cold front will change our wind direction to more northeasterly winds by friday morning. by friday afternoon, winds will start increasing to above 25 knots and the gusts will be as high as 30-35 knots. Seas increase to 8-12 ft friday evening with 10-14 feet seas in the offshore waters. These gale conditions will continue through Saturday night. rain chances will be greatest with the frontal passage through friday evening (60-80%). && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 No significant fire weather concerns are anticipated through the work week with elevated humidity in place across the area. A strong cold front Friday will increase rain chances and bring a strong north to northeast wind in it's wake. Drier and cooler conditions are expected this weekend. Although minimum RH values may drop below 30% across the Brush Country this weekend, winds are expected to relax, becoming light. Therefore, elevated fire weather concerns are not expected this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 75 90 72 84 / 10 10 10 20 Victoria 70 92 68 81 / 0 10 10 20 Laredo 75 95 72 84 / 0 0 10 30 Alice 72 92 70 84 / 10 0 10 10 Rockport 77 89 73 85 / 10 10 20 20 Cotulla 73 95 70 81 / 0 0 10 10 Kingsville 73 90 71 84 / 10 0 10 10 Navy Corpus 79 87 76 83 / 10 10 20 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AE/82 AVIATION...TE/81  396 FXUS65 KBOI 150025 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 625 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry conditions through the weekend with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal. - Cooler conditions after Monday with a slight chance of precipitation. && .SHORT TERM /Through Friday Night/... Issued 201 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026 The upper level ridge axis currently sits over the Intermountain West, maintaining stable, dry, and mild conditions across southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho. Under clear skies and lightweight surface gradients, winds will remain generally light and diurnal through Friday night. As the ridge remains centered over the region, thermal troughing at the surface will strengthen slightly, allowing high temperatures to trend gradually warmer each afternoon. Mid-level height field peaks Thursday into Friday. By Friday afternoon, high temperatures will crest roughly 5 to 8 degrees above seasonal averages, bringing afternoon highs in the lower river valleys into the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... Issued 201 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026 A weak and moisture-starved upper level trough will cross the Pacific Northwest on Saturday, pushing a dry cold front through the area. While precipitation chances remain near zero due to limited mid and low level moisture, the frontal passage will effectively break down the upper level ridge and kick off a cooling trend across the region. Surface winds will shift west to northwest and become breezy at times on Saturday behind the front, especially across the Magic Valley and higher terrain. By Sunday, the next upper level trough approaches the West Coast. This will back upper level flow across the region to the south and southwest, maintaining dry conditions and near-normal temperatures through early next week. Latest ensemble and deterministic guidance now favors the trough splitting along the West Coast and eventually forming a closed low off the southern California coast Tuesday/Wednesday. This path keeps the primary threat of precipitation focused west of the Cascades and mostly outside our forecast area through Wednesday. There is a limited chance for precipitation (15-20%) across south-central Idaho if enough moisture can be advected northward Wednesday. Expect afternoon highs to drop back into the 60s for most valley locations starting Monday and continuing through midweek. && .AVIATION /00Z Thursday through Friday/... Issued 618 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026 VFR. Areas of smoke from prescribed burning. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: NE 10-20kt. Surface winds: N-NW 5-15kt becoming light after sunset, then becoming E-SE 5-10kt Thu afternoon. KBOI...VFR. NW 5-15kt becoming light after sunset, and SE 5-10kt by Thu afternoon. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....KA SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....JDS  497 FXUS63 KGID 150026 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 726 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...Aviation and Key Messages Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - This evening starts out with a mix of dry conditions in the wake of earlier showers (especially north half of our forecast area) and at least patchy light drizzle (mainly south half of our area). - Starting mainly after 10 PM, more widespread measurable rain in the form of showers and perhaps a few weak thunderstorms will steadily spread SW to NE through our entire area, with fairly constant rain (or at least drizzle when it's not actively raining) lasting through Thursday morning. Widespread rain amounts of at least 0.40-0.80" are likely nearly our entire area, with much more localized heavier amounts up to ~ 1.50" possible here or there. - The coolest air of the fall, thus far, along with the first widespread frost of the season remains on tap for the Friday night into Saturday morning time-frame, with some scattered below freezing temperatures increasingly likely - especially in our typically coolest spots (such as Ord). - Dry conditions and moderating temperatures from 60s into the 70s expected will provide several days of gorgeous fall weather this weekend through early next week. - Our next (and still very "iffy") chance for rain does not arrive until next Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Clouds, scattered showers, and a few embedded thunderstorms have been on the increase from S to N today. Most areas won't see sunshine again until Friday AM. The initial wave of rain today is scattered, but there are some embedded heavier cores with a few rumbles of thunder. Latest guidance lifts this activity S to N through the remainder of the day, with perhaps some weakening with northern extent/time. A much larger, and more persistent, shield of light to moderate rain (and again, a few embedded weak thunderstorms) will spread SW to NE across the entire region late tonight, and continue through most, if not all, of the morning hours Thursday. Not much change to expected rainfall amounts as both the latest HREF and EPS are in good agreement. Most areas will receive around 0.25" to 0.75". Very isolated higher amounts up to 1.5" will be possible, but this will be more of the exception than the rule. Coverage and intensity will taper off from SW/S to NE/N Thursday afternoon. Most areas should be done with rain by around sunset Thursday, though a few sprinkles/very light showers could linger along the Hwy 81 corridor a couple hours longer. North winds will be a bit breezy on Thursday as the entire system lifts through the Plains and into the Upper Midwest - so even when it's not raining, its going to feel quite chilly and raw. High temperatures will only be in the 50s, but it could feel like mid to upper 40s at times with the breeze. Despite clearing skies Thursday night, not expecting frost due to breezy conditions persisting all night. Strongest high pressure of the fall season thus far will ooze into the region on Friday. This will gradually lower wind speeds on Friday, but temperatures will remain seasonably cool only in the 50s. The cool daytime, in conjunction with clear skies, weak winds along sfc ridge axis, and recent moisture will likely set the stage for widespread (perhaps significant/thick) frost Friday night into Saturday morning. Return flow will be on the increase towards dawn over the far W/NW, but damage may already be done in these areas by then. Forecast has been cooling slightly with each and every cycle, and now all but far SE zones are forecast to dip to, or just below, freezing Sat AM. As such, will likely by issuing frost/freeze headlines within the next 12-18 hours for this threat. Temperatures will warm nicely Saturday afternoon in the dry autumn airmass...and expect further moderation to temperatures Sunday into early next week. In fact, upper 60s to upper 70s are forecast each day Sunday through Wednesday next week, with our KS zones possibly even touching the low 80s late in the period. May have another period of patchy frost to contend with Saturday night, but a steady southerly breeze should prevent another round of widespread/thick frost...and lows only warm further from there next several days. So those looking to extend the growing season should be able to get at least another week, provided protective measures are taken Fri night-Sat AM. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 724 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview: This will be an overall-poor aviation period with sub-VFR ceiling and/or visibility prevailing at least the vast majority of the time, along with several hours of fairly steady rain and/or drizzle...and possibly a few thunderstorms. In addition, the latter half of the period (especially Thursday afternoon) will feature increasing north-northwest winds, with gusts 25-30KT likely. On a positive note, dry and VFR conditions are likely to return very late in the period. - Ceiling/visibility and precipitation details: Out of the gate this evening, MVFR ceiling prevails at both KGRI/KEAR. Over the next several hours, ceiling will gradually lower and light drizzle could get underway. Anytime after around 05Z KEAR/06Z KGRI, steadier rain showers and possibly a few weak thunderstorms will move in from the west-southwest, with ceiling deteriorating to IFR as well. Although a few weak thunderstorms are possible, have opted to leave a formal thunder mention out of TAFs at this time, instead opting for prevailing SHRA. Although there will surely be variations on smaller time scales, visibility is expected to generally prevail MVFR for several hours in a combination of steadier rain and/or light drizzle and fog. Although at least intermittent/occasional rain showers could still occur well into the afternoon (as suggested by vicinity shower/VCSH groups), opted to end prevailing SHRA groups 16Z KEAR/17Z KGRI...as by that time the MAIN batch of activity should be departing off to the east. Finally, a return to at least a low-end VFR ceiling (if not outright-clearing skies) is tentatively aimed for 22Z KEAR/23Z KGRI. - Wind details: This evening-overnight will certaintly feature the lightest winds of the period...mainly 5-10KT out of the northeast. Then for Thursday daytime, direction will shift to northerly then north-northwesterly as speeds increase on the backside of departing surface low pressure. In general, sustained speeds during the morning will prevail 10-15KT/gusts 15-20KT...then increasing to more so 15-20KT/gusts 25-30KT during the afternoon. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thies AVIATION...Pfannkuch  478 FXUS65 KRIW 150026 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 626 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool with rain, mainly east of the Divide, as the west improves with clearing northwest to southeast overnight. - Mountain snow lingers on Casper Mountain with rain shower activity persisting east of the Divide, mainly from eastern Sweetwater to Natrona Counties. - Clearing skies and diminished rain shower activity by early to mid Thursday morning giving way to widespread freezing temperatures for Friday morning. - Warming and dry trend for Friday and over the weekend into early next week ahead of the next system by Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1200 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Mid-day IR shows improving cloud cover to the northwest portions of the CWA, expanding south, west of the Divide. Cooler cloud tops across the south and central parts of the state, where the ample rain shower activity continues on the backside of the low. Radar shows the Wind River Basin continuing to fill in from the east and southeast, stretching to the south and east across eastern Sweetwater to much of Natrona Counties. This will slowly diminish into the evening hours as it regresses southeast with the low itself. It become more progressive with the newest Hi- Res data, suggesting rain shower activity to be out of the CWA by sunrise, with a few drizzly portions of southeastern Natrona with upslope of Casper Mountain. Very minor snow possible in these higher elevations of Natrona, but any activity for the Winds will end early this afternoon if not already. Beyond that, expect clearing skies through the afternoon and evening. This will give way to hard freezing temperatures for Friday morning through 9AM, giving this the last of the freezing headlines until Spring. Ridging then builds in quite strong Friday and over the weekend, seeing widespread 60s east of the Divide in the afternoon, to even low 70s for eastern counties of Johnson and Natrona through Monday. Next up will be another GOA low pushing down into the Pacific northwest, deepening and elongating with its progression south and east with increased divergence aloft. The question, as it was with this last system, is how progressive it becomes staying more closed off or an open wave. Stay tuned for details in the coming days, but enjoy the warming trend for the weekend as it will be great for those visiting the parks for one last hoorah before winter starts knocking for good. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 The main driver in the forecast this morning remains me of one of the better movies of the mid 1990s, Leaving Las Vegas. It is because the upper level low that has brought the clouds and showers of the past few days that was centered near Las Vegas is now leaving and will be making a turn toward to the northeast, crossing Colorado through tonight before moving into the central Plains states for the end of the week. And it will continue be the main driver in the weather for about the next 24 to 36 hours. Satellite imagery shows some more enhanced cloud tops heading toward Wyoming, with showers across much of the southern two thirds of the area. There remains some uncertainty this morning in regards to how widespread the showers will be today though. Some ensemble members, as well as the operational GFS, keep the low further south, keeping more of the area mainly dry, with showers confined largely south and west of a Buffalo to Riverton to Green River line. Other members, as well as the operational European model, bring the low closer and keep showers across most of the southern two thirds of the area through this evening. There is some agreement in showers starting to end from northwest to southeast starting after midnight tonight, with all showers finally over by noon on Thursday. Now we turn to precipitation amounts. Far northwestern Wyoming should be done with showers. As for an additional quarter of an inch starting at 6 am this morning, the 1 out of 2 chance of an additional quarter inch or more runs roughly south and east of a Kaycee to east of Riverton to Rock Springs line. However, precipitation has been underperforming in most locations. The heaviest amounts, with around a 2 out of 5 chance of three quarter inches of rain are mainly in Natrona, southeastern Fremont and southern Sweetwater Counties. And finally, we talk about snow. Amounts over the passes have been rather small so far. Snow levels will reach the lowest point early this morning. With 700 millibar temperatures generally dropping to between minus 2 to minus 3, which would lower snow levels to around 7000 to 7500 feet. This would keep the lower elevations largely rain, although there could be some wet snowflakes from time to time, especially if precipitation is heavier. As for an additional inch starting at 6 am this morning, it mainly across the Wind River Range, the Green and Rattlesnake Ranges and also Casper Mountain where there is a greater than 1 in 2 chance of 1 inch or greater. When we bump it up to 3 inches, it is again mainly above 8500 feet. However, the NBM ensemble has a couple of interesting things. It still has a greater than 2 out of 5 chance of 3 inches over the higher elevations of South Pass. I am giving some thought to possibly extending the Winter Weather Advisory another 6 hours or so, when snow levels should rise another 1000 feet or so. This will likely be a gametime decision based on road conditions when we get closer to expiration, which is at 6 am. Other locations that could see over 3 inches include Casper Mountain, but all guidance keeps the chance of over 6 inches to less than 1 out of 5. The other location is the Green and Rattlesnake Range, but this would be the higher elevations with no impacts. Snow should really taper off after midnight with just about all areas done by Thursday morning. And you think we are done, but wait, there's more! And that will be the strong wind tonight. The upper level will initiate some lee cyclogenesis over Colorado and tighten the pressure gradient as the low deepens. This will be mainly after midnight tonight and into Thursday morning, although it will linger longer over Johnson County. Most areas East of the Divide as well as eastern Sweetwater County have at least a 3 out of 5 chance of wind gusts past 30 mph. The areas prone to the cold advection / north flow pattern, like Johnson County and portions of the Big Horn Basin have at least a 1 in 2 chance of gusts past 40 mph. High wind looks unlikely, as 700 millibar wind looks to top out at around 40 knots, and I would likely to see 50 knots for that. Wind should decrease Thursday afternoon as the low moves into the Plains states. And this brings us to the last main concern, a possibly killing freeze. Yes, most locations are a few weeks past the average first freeze, so we have been living on borrowed time. But many areas will have a good chance Thursday night as the wind decreases and the sky the sky clears as the low moves away. Thursday night there is a very good chance of that killing freeze. Just about the entire area has at least a 2 out of 3 chance of temperatures of 28 degrees or below. Freeze warnings will likely be needed, but we will let future shifts issue these as we still have rain and snow to deal with. Following that, it looks like some pleasant fall weather should return for several days as ridging builds back into the area. This means a mainly clear sky and temperatures near to somewhat above normal from Friday through the weekend and into early next week. The next chance for decent precipitation looks to hold off until the middle of next week when the next Pacific system approaches the area. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 402 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Rain showers and associated MVFR to IFR flight conditions are forecast at KRIW and KLND through 03Z and at KCPR and KRKS through 09Z, at the latest. All other terminals are forecast to remain dry this TAF period. Once rain moves out of the terminals, cloud cover is also forecast to diminish. However, low clouds are expected to push into KRKS and east of the Continental Divide terminals (KCPR, KCOD, KRIW, KLND, and KWRL) on Thursday morning. There is uncertainty in how dense cloud cover will be, with the greatest confidence in MVFR ceilings at KCPR Thursday morning. A gusty north wind pushes into most terminals after 05Z Thursday and be present for a few hours. KRKS and KWRL are the exceptions where gusty winds persist most of day on Thursday. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for WYZ005-006-010-011-016>020-028>030. && $$ UPDATE...Lowe DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Gerhardt  623 FXUS61 KRLX 150029 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 829 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Have updated PoPs into early tonight to represent a slightly faster arrival of showers/storms. The main concern continues to be isolated heavy storms with strong wind gusts, as well as locally heavy rain with training showers/storms, especially north in the CWA (SE OH and N WV) along the front, over relatively low flash flood guidance from recent heavy rains over the weekend. 00Z Aviation Discussion update. As of 210 PM Wednesday... The timing of the cold frontal passage on Friday continues to slow down in the models, with passage and resulting gusty winds now expected from midday into the afternoon hours. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Round one of showers and thunderstorms occurs later this afternoon into early Thursday morning as a cold front drops into the region. An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible and repetitive showers/storms may cause some localized flash flooding. 2) Round two of showers with gusty winds accompany a cold frontal passage on Friday. 3) Much cooler temperatures with a threat of a frost/freeze over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front will sag south into the area tonight bringing increasing showers and thunderstorms. A weak wave of low pressure also moves along the front, enhancing rainfall at times. Ahead of the front, temperatures have soared to well above normal values and southwesterly low level winds have pumped ample moisture northward with PWATS approaching 2 inches along the front. All of this points to a potential for a few severe thunderstorms later this afternoon, with gusty winds the primary threat, and then heavy rainfall overnight as the front stalls out bisecting the area in a west to east orientation. This sets up the potential for repetitive rounds of showers and storms with WPC highlighting a large chunk of our CWA under a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall overnight. The front lifts north as a warm front tomorrow resulting in a lull in precipitation during the afternoon and another warm day. KEY MESSAGE 2... Forecast models continue to slow down the frontal passage on Friday with the general consensus now being a midday or afternoon passage. This should be accompanied by a broken line of showers, with just enough instability for perhaps a thunderstorm or two. The bigger concern is gusty winds though with potential for widespread 30 to 40 mph winds and higher in the higher elevations. This will cause scattered power outages if it materializes. KEY MESSAGE 3... Breezy north winds continue to usher in a seasonably cool airmass Saturday with a few light rain showers, and maybe some mountain flurries in the morning. Winds then die down Saturday night as a sprawling area of high pressure builds in and this will support temperatures falling to around freezing for many locations and frost/freeze headlines will likely be needed. Temperatures then slowly moderate into next week but at least some patchy frost will again be possible Sunday night into Monday morning. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A cold front will continue to sink south into the area overnight, before lifting back north as a warm front on Thursday during the day. Mainly VFR conditions at present will gradually deteriorate overnight in low stratus and patchy fog, with MVFR/IFR expected across much of the area by later tonight. Scattered showers will continue overnight, especially central/south. A very slow return to VFR is expected during the day on Thursday following the passage of the warm front northward, with some locations central/north remaining MVFR or even IFR through the remainder of this TAF period (until 00Z Friday).Light surface flow is expected throughout this TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions overnight into Thursday morning will likely vary from the forecast depending on rainfall, low stratus, and patchy fog. Improvement in flight conditions later Thursday will also vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 10/15/26 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H M H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H L M L L M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H M H H H M M H H H M H PKB CONSISTENCY L H H M H H H M M L M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H M M H H H H AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR conditions are also possible with a strong cold front Friday into Friday night. IFR river valley fog is possible Sunday and Monday mornings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ABE/GW AVIATION...GW  623 FXUS61 KRLX 150029 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 829 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Have updated PoPs into early tonight to represent a slightly faster arrival of showers/storms. The main concern continues to be isolated heavy storms with strong wind gusts, as well as locally heavy rain with training showers/storms, especially north in the CWA (SE OH and N WV) along the front, over relatively low flash flood guidance from recent heavy rains over the weekend. 00Z Aviation Discussion update. As of 210 PM Wednesday... The timing of the cold frontal passage on Friday continues to slow down in the models, with passage and resulting gusty winds now expected from midday into the afternoon hours. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Round one of showers and thunderstorms occurs later this afternoon into early Thursday morning as a cold front drops into the region. An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible and repetitive showers/storms may cause some localized flash flooding. 2) Round two of showers with gusty winds accompany a cold frontal passage on Friday. 3) Much cooler temperatures with a threat of a frost/freeze over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front will sag south into the area tonight bringing increasing showers and thunderstorms. A weak wave of low pressure also moves along the front, enhancing rainfall at times. Ahead of the front, temperatures have soared to well above normal values and southwesterly low level winds have pumped ample moisture northward with PWATS approaching 2 inches along the front. All of this points to a potential for a few severe thunderstorms later this afternoon, with gusty winds the primary threat, and then heavy rainfall overnight as the front stalls out bisecting the area in a west to east orientation. This sets up the potential for repetitive rounds of showers and storms with WPC highlighting a large chunk of our CWA under a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall overnight. The front lifts north as a warm front tomorrow resulting in a lull in precipitation during the afternoon and another warm day. KEY MESSAGE 2... Forecast models continue to slow down the frontal passage on Friday with the general consensus now being a midday or afternoon passage. This should be accompanied by a broken line of showers, with just enough instability for perhaps a thunderstorm or two. The bigger concern is gusty winds though with potential for widespread 30 to 40 mph winds and higher in the higher elevations. This will cause scattered power outages if it materializes. KEY MESSAGE 3... Breezy north winds continue to usher in a seasonably cool airmass Saturday with a few light rain showers, and maybe some mountain flurries in the morning. Winds then die down Saturday night as a sprawling area of high pressure builds in and this will support temperatures falling to around freezing for many locations and frost/freeze headlines will likely be needed. Temperatures then slowly moderate into next week but at least some patchy frost will again be possible Sunday night into Monday morning. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A cold front will continue to sink south into the area overnight, before lifting back north as a warm front on Thursday during the day. Mainly VFR conditions at present will gradually deteriorate overnight in low stratus and patchy fog, with MVFR/IFR expected across much of the area by later tonight. Scattered showers will continue overnight, especially central/south. A very slow return to VFR is expected during the day on Thursday following the passage of the warm front northward, with some locations central/north remaining MVFR or even IFR through the remainder of this TAF period (until 00Z Friday).Light surface flow is expected throughout this TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions overnight into Thursday morning will likely vary from the forecast depending on rainfall, low stratus, and patchy fog. Improvement in flight conditions later Thursday will also vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 10/15/26 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H M H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H L M L L M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H M H H H M M H H H M H PKB CONSISTENCY L H H M H H H M M L M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H M M H H H H AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR conditions are also possible with a strong cold front Friday into Friday night. IFR river valley fog is possible Sunday and Monday mornings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ABE/GW AVIATION...GW  848 FXUS62 KTAE 150032 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 832 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 826 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Above normal temperatures in the mid-80s to near 90 for this work week with little to no chance for rain expected. - Marine conditions will quickly deteriorate on Friday night following passage of a sharp cold front with an increasing potential for gale-force wind gusts this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 826 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Only update this evening was the inclusion of patchy fog during the pre-dawn hours tomorrow across parts of south Central Georgia and the eastern Florida Big Bend. Under clear skies, dew points in the 60s and RH near 100%, the potential is there to see some patchy fog. There's a chance the fog is more widespread across the area tomorrow morning, although confidence is currently low on that occurring. && .SHORT TERM & LONG TERM... (This Evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 High pressure both at the surface and aloft will keep conditions dry but also a bit toasty through much of the week with high temperatures forecast in the mid 80s to near 90 through Friday. Late Friday and Friday night, a fairly strong cold front is forecast to rapidly push southeastward through the area, ushering in a drier and cooler air mass in its wake. Dry conditions persisting ahead of the front will preclude any precipitation developing except perhaps over the Gulf waters. High temperatures are forecast in the 70s across the area on Saturday with low temperatures in the low 50s to near 60 overnight Saturday night. The gradient will remain fairly tight in the wake of the front as well, leading to breezy conditions remaining over the weekend and into next week. As winds become more easterly Sunday and beyond, a slow but gradual warming and moistening trend is forecast to take hold. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 728 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period. Some brief restrictions are possible around VLD and ECP for a few hours around sunrise due to patchy fog. Winds will be light. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Tranquil boating conditions expected into Friday with daily sea breezes. On Friday night, a cold front will blast across the waters, ushering in a sharp increase in fresh to strong northerly breezes with near gale to gale-force wind gusts. Winds are expected to remain elevated into next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Fair dispersions are expected again Thursday before dramatically increasing on Friday ahead of a strong cold front. Dry conditions are expected to continue with minRH percentage values in the mid-30s to mid 40s. Light transport winds of 5-10 mph generally out of the east can be expected through Thursday, then clocking around to the west and increasing on Friday ahead of a cold front. A strong cold frontal passage is expected Friday night, with breezy conditions to follow this weekend. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to around 90 through Friday, the decreasing to the 70s this weekend. No rainfall is expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 With the recent rainfall, several rivers are observed/forecast in action stage. The Choctawhatchee River at Bruce may eventually go into minor flood, but confidence is a bit on the lower side for now. No additional rainfall or flooding is expected over the upcoming week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 65 89 66 88 / 0 0 0 10 Panama City 67 86 68 85 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 64 87 64 85 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 64 88 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 64 88 66 87 / 0 0 0 10 Cross City 66 88 69 88 / 0 0 0 20 Apalachicola 71 82 70 83 / 0 0 10 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Merrifield LONG TERM....Merrifield AVIATION...DVD MARINE...Merrifield FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield HYDROLOGY...Merrifield  584 FXAK68 PAFC 150046 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 446 PM AKDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Wednesday - Friday evening)... Key Messages: - Gusty winds and moderate to heavy rainfall expected for eastern Kodiak Island for the rest of today through Thursday morning. Discussion: A series of upper-level disturbances will maintain an unsettled weather pattern across Southcentral Alaska through Friday evening. An upper-level trough extending across southern Alaska and the Gulf will support periods of precipitation, particularly along the northern Gulf Coast, while inland locations experience more intermittent precipitation. For today, cyclonic flow aloft and embedded shortwaves moving through the broader trough will support continued precipitation across Kodiak Island, the eastern Kenai Peninsula, and Prince William Sound. Farther inland, precipitation is expected to be more scattered, with periods of showers possible. Cooler air aloft will support snow across higher elevations, including portions of the Chugach Mountains with snow levels fluctuating as individual disturbances move through the region. By Thursday, a more organized upper-level low is expected to move across the Gulf, maintaining unsettled conditions along the coast. periods of rain will remain possible across Kodiak Island, Kenai Peninsula, and Prince William Sound, while precipitation farther inland will depend on how much moisture is able to push northward. The associated pressure gradient may also support gusty winds along coastal areas and through favored gap and passes. Confidence is moderate in continued precipitation along the coast, although uncertainty remains regarding precipitation amounts and the inland extend of moisture. Heading into Friday, the upper-level low is expected to shift eastward as additional shortwave energy approaches the western Gulf. This will maintain opportunities for precipitation across coastal Southcentral, while inland locations may experience periods of drier weather between disturbances. Snow will remain possible across higher elevations, particularly where colder air aloft overlaps with lingering moisture. Differences in model guidance become more apparent during this period, particularly regarding the timing and placement of the next disturbance and its associated precipitation. Overall, confidence is moderate (60-70%) in an unsettled pattern persisting through Friday evening, with the greatest precipitation potential remaining along the coast. However, uncertainty remains in model guidance regarding the strength and track of individual disturbances and their associated impacts across Southcentral. -LM && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... Satellite imagery shows a North Pacific low continuing its approach toward the Alaska Peninsula this afternoon. It will stall south of Chignik and linger there through Thursday morning. A front from this low has already pushed across Bristol Bay and the Southwest Mainland, bringing rain with traces of snow across the region. There is high confidence this will continue into Friday morning as cooler air continues to filter into the region. Snowfall accumulation from a trace up to an inch is expected. This low will remain fairly compact through Friday evening, keeping northerly wind gusts strong across the Aleutians from King Cove west to Dutch Harbor. Gust will be strongest through bays and passes, and have a 60% chance of exceeding 50 mph, and a 30% to 50% chance of exceeding 60 mph through Friday afternoon. The low will then move into the Gulf of Alaska. In its wake, northerly winds persist over the Central Aleutians. Farther to the west, a weak meridional ridge will slide eastward over Unalaska and the Pribilofs by Thursday afternoon and the Southwest mainland by Friday morning. Beneath the ridge, temperatures for the mainland cool slightly, with daytime highs in the 30s and nighttime lows into the mid 20s by Saturday. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)... High confidence exists in a brief drying trend across Southcentral on Sunday as lingering Gulf troughing is absorbed by a system shifting into the panhandle. Farther west, ensemble guidance suggests a frontal boundary advancing into the Bering Sea on Sunday, bringing a 50% to 70% chance of rain and elevated winds across the Aleutians; however, confidence remains low regarding the exact spatial placement and track of this boundary. Forecast spread increases heading into early next week, though clusters consistently favor a potent North Pacific low tracking south of the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula late Sunday into Monday. There is moderate-to-high confidence in gusty, potentially gale-force winds and steady rain impacting the Nikolski and Unalaska corridors early Monday. As deep moisture lifts northward ahead of the system, precipitation chances increase rapidly across Southcentral as early as Sunday night. The potential for moderate to locally heavy rainfall remains highest from Kodiak and the northern Gulf coast through Monday, though specific rain totals will ultimately hinge on the system's exact track. && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions will remain through the period. Northerly winds of around 5 to 8 kt this afternoon will increase to around 12 to 14 kt overnight. The potential for ceilings dropping in light rain (virga, not hitting the ground) is around 20 percent this afternoon as a front sweeps across the region. Strong easterly winds in Prince William Sound will keep the airport dry and downsloped through Thursday afternoon, but conditions remain at VFR (60 to 80 percent). && $$  591 FXZS60 NSTU 150046 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 146 PM SST Wed Oct 14 2026 .Discussion... A strong high pressure system to the south of the Samoa Islands is maintaining breezy southeast trades across the area. Expect these conditions to persist through the week, with passing showers embedded within the trade wind flow. However, we are currently monitoring a Tropical Disturbance (TD01F/92P) about 550 miles northeast of Tutuila. The global model consensus moves the system in a south southeast direction with gradual intensification. While this Tropical Disturbance (TD) is currently projected to remain east of the territory, it is still within our Area of Responsibility. A slight westward shift in the TDs track would increase the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding to American Samoa so it will be monitored closely. Overall, breezy southeast trade winds of 15 to 25 mph will continue through the week, shifting more southerly on Thursday as the low tracks southeast. As for potential tropical development, the greater concern remains east of the territory, with possible impacts extending as far west as Rose Atoll at this time. Hence, the Flash Flood Watch remains in effect mainly for Swains and the Manu'a Islands through the weekend. && .Marine... Wave heights will remain elevated due to persistent trade winds through the forecast period. Latest observations from the Aunu'u PacIOOS buoy show wave heights ranging from 9 to 12 feet, with similar conditions expected into next week. A High Surf Advisory and Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch High Surf Advisory Small Craft Advisory && $$ IM/TM  794 FXUS61 KLWX 150053 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 853 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Record high max were set at all three major airports, Annapolis, and Hagerstown. DCA set the record for the latest 90F reading in a calendar year. Record high minimums are also likely at HGR, IAD, and MRB. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A few showers are expected tonight, Thursday, with thunderstorms and risk of severe weather Friday. - 2) Temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below average this weekend. Dry, but with areas of frost possible and near freezing temperatures, mainly west of I-95, Saturday night and Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1....A few showers are expected tonight, Thursday, with thunderstorms and a risk of severe weather Friday. A front will stall near/south of the region Thursday morning as high pressure over southeast Ontario wedges down the mountains. This will return temperatures back into the mid to upper 60s under cloudy skies and on/off shower chances throughout the entirety of the day. The front retreats back to the north before washing out over the northern 2/3rds of the forecast area Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. This is due in part to the wedging high pressure system over southeast Ontario shifting toward the southern New England coast allowing winds to switch back to the southerly direction. The wedge will erode quickly as a result allowing for a quick spike in temperatures ahead of a stronger front Friday morning into Friday afternoon. Gusty showers and a few thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening (Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) mainly east of US-15 and toward the I-95 metros) as a true strong (Fall) cold front crosses the region. It will get breezy Friday afternoon as mid-level heights quickly fall and the surface pressure gradient tightens in response to a deepening low tracking to our north. Peak wind gusts of 35-45 mph are possible in the mountains, and 30-40 mph elsewhere. Wind Advisories may be needed for some portion of the Alleghenies and Blue Ridge Friday afternoon into Friday night although model trends continue to decrease winds over a large spatial area (i.e immediate surge along the front and disjointed trough compared to the pressure rises on the back end). A squeegee line of gusty showers and some thunderstorms are expected late Friday afternoon and evening ahead of the front. If thunderstorms can tap into the increasing winds aloft, there certainly could be a few strong to severe wind gusts.A potent upper trough passes through the region Friday night, bringing a reinforcing cold front that pushes out any lingering precipitation. Highs Friday push into the upper 70s and low 80s early in the day before falling into 60s and 70s (40s and 50s mountains) Friday evening. Expect overnight lows in the 40s (30s mountains) Friday night. KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below average this weekend. Dry, but with areas of frost possible and near freezing temperatures, mainly west of I-95, Saturday night and Sunday night. A strong mid-level disturbance will quickly transverse the region Saturday. High pressure will build into the region later Saturday through Tuesday. Gusty northwest and northerly winds will diminish through the day Saturday as the last of any precipitation moves out and east of southern Maryland. Clearing skies and less wind expected the remainder of the weekend. With such conditions, areas of frost have a better opportunity to form across a large part or the region, especially west of the I-95 corridor. Frost and/or freeze headlines may be needed for Saturday night and early Sunday. As mentioned before, the mountains typically have their first freeze October 11, Shenandoah Valley area October 21, and east of the Blue Ridge November 1. High pressure will move overhead and then east early next week. This will allow for temperatures to modify more closer to average with dry conditions continuing. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Precipitation may not even make it to CHO given the orientation of the boundary and timing. Drizzle will likely impact this area when the front stalls Thursday morning. As a result, expect periods of sub-VFR conditions this afternoon through Thursday afternoon. MVFR cigs and vsbys are likely at most terminals with a brief window for IFR conditions Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon, especially in locations west of I-95 corridor terminals as the wedge settles in. Winds today will remain out of the west and southwest at 5 to 15 kts with occasional gusts up to 20 kts at times. Winds switch to the north and northwest tonight into Thursday morning before turning southerly late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Conditions will improve as result with the wedge eroding in southerly flow late Thursday afternoon and night ahead of the next strong cold front/upper level trough set to cross Friday. The strong cold front moves through Friday afternoon into Friday night. A noticeable increase in winds is expected along with a squeegee line of gusty showers and thunderstorms. Southwest winds gust 25-30 knots Friday afternoon, then turn northwest behind the front Friday night. VFR conditions Saturday through Sunday night. Winds northwest 15 to 20 knots gusts up to 30 knots Saturday, diminishing northwest to northeast 5 to 10 knots Saturday night. Winds variable 5 to 10 knots Sunday and Sunday night. && .MARINE... A front approaches the waters from the north later this afternoon and evening bringing a scattered showers and perhaps a gusty thunderstorm. The front will kick northerly winds back into SCA criteria later this evening into Thursday morning with gusts up to 20 kts. Winds will shift from the south back to the north and northwest behind the front. Winds gradually diminish Thursday afternoon and evening. SCA conditions are expected to develop across all the waters by Friday morning, then Gale conditions are possible Friday afternoon into Saturday. Gale Watches may be issued later today to encompass this threat, especially over the lower waters of the bay and tidal Potomac. There could be Gales Saturday, followed by Small Craft Advisories Saturday night into Sunday morning. Afterwards, winds should diminish enough to have no additional headlines Sunday afternoon and night. Winds northwest 15 to 25 knots gusts 30 to 35 knots possible Saturday, diminishing north to northeast 15 to 20 knots gusts 25 to 30 knots Saturday night. Winds becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots Sunday and Sunday night. && .CLIMATE... Record high maximum were set at all three major airports today with DCA setting a new record for the latest date of 90F reading in a calendar year breaking the old record of Oct 11 in 1919. In addition, record high minimum temperatures are likely at HGR, IAD, and MRB based on current dewpoints and the fact the cold front will not cross the area until after 06Z. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LFR/KLW/EST AVIATION...LFR/KLW/EST MARINE...LFR/KLW/EST  784 FXUS61 KPBZ 150053 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 853 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Spatial coverage of showers and storms Wednesday afternoon has shifted a bit farther north. Timing of cold front passage Friday has slowed a bit. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) First of two cold fronts this week sweeps through on Wednesday. 2) Stronger late-week cold front returns showers, gusty wind, and temperatures more like that of mid-November. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The evening features much of the convection that has weakened and slid south of the Mason Dixon Line. Much of the showers will remain in northern West Virginia overnight. A few instances of drizzle will remain north of I-70. Thus, kept some slight chance pops north in to SW PA. Previous Discussion...A slow moving cold front finally gets a kick and moves through our area north to south this afternoon showers and a few storms. Some storms could get a bit on the stronger side, but the primary limiting factor to that will be a displaced instability axis from the highest shear. The belt of strongest mid-level flow, and thus deep layer shear, will be in the northern half of our area. The best opportunity for heating and better instability will be in the southern half of our area in the thinner cloud cover out ahead of the front. REFS joint probability for >500 J/kg of SBCAPE and >30 knots of shear to capture the best overlap of parameters has shifted a bit farther northwest in several iterations of runs with around 60- 90% from eastern OH, through far southwestern PA, and into northern WV. A handful of recent HRRR and RRFS MPAS runs favor a slightly slower moving front and thus storms firing a bit farther north, which is falling more in line with the REFS shift, so this could be a trend to note through the day today. So, this will be the area to watch for storms to get more feisty and bring a low-end damaging wind threat coincident with SPC's Marginal Risk. Hail seems less likely with thinner CAPE profiles within the hail growth zone and a too shallow equilibrium level capping updrafts before they can maximize on hail growth. With lacking low level lapse rates progged by the latest RAP, we'd likely need to see the deep layer shear organize and congeal the storms into clusters to capitalize on the wind threat. Can't entirely rule out some flash flood concern which would be a bit more concerning if storms do fire farther north and impact southwestern Pennsylvania where two rounds of storms already went through earlier in the morning and preconditioned the ground, but that's still favored in southern OH and northern WV. KEY MESSAGE 2... The most impactful system arrives on Friday ushering in strong wind gusts, well below normal temperatures, and showers. While some uncertainty remains among ensembles primarily owing to timing and, to a lesser extent, depth of the mid-level trough, confidence in all three impacts remains high. Deep surface low pressure will pull a cold front through the area on Friday with a tight pressure gradient, 10+ dam 500 mb height falls in 12 hours, and strong low- level cold advection. For the wind threat, the combination of the tight gradient and mixing into a 40-45 knot low level jet should result in widespread gusts of 35-45 mph. They'll be stronger across our higher elevation remains up to ~60%. The already low probability of Advisory criteria in the lowlands has decreased a bit to only around 20-40%, so while still not likely, not entirely out of the question either. Eastern Tucker County runs an elevated probability for High Wind Warning criteria gusts >58 mph also up to ~60%. Wind headlines for the ridges will likely come into consideration within the next 24-36 hours. Strong cold advection in post-frontal northwest flow will bottom out ensemble mean 850 mb temperatures to around -2 to -4C. An unseasonably cold air mass will settle in for the first half of the weekend providing the potential for two nights of frost and freeze. Friday night, it looks like a freeze or bust as wind will remain elevated in the post-frontal regime. So, while probabilities for <36F lows are high, especially outside of urban areas, not too concerned about widespread frost. Probs for <32F (and an unconditional freeze) sneak up to 40-50% along and north of I-80, so that'll be the area to worry about on Friday night. Saturday daytime highs will feel more like those of mid to late November only warming to near 50 degrees with 40s in the elevation. The gradient will relax some Sunday night allowing wind to slacken and skies will clear. This should point toward Saturday night being the coldest areawide, and possibly the first shot for the Pittsburgh climate site to dip to 32F or lower since May 2nd. With better radiational cooling conditions amid a dry, cold airmass, the dew point could essentially be the floor for lows, and this suggests widespread low to mid 30s and upper 20s. A widespread frost is likely. Probability for a freeze ranges from 40-80% in eastern OH, northern WV, and western PA, with the highest values away from urban areas and in the higher elevation. Expect that we'll be looking at some combination of frost/freeze headlines on top of wind headlines as well. Two rounds of precip are possible both along the front itself and then in the wrap around cold advection across the lakes on Saturday. Strong flow amid the dynamic system could drive some "power showers" accompanying FROPA on Friday bringing enhanced gusts with them provided they're able to get tall enough to tap into the 40-50 knots a few thousand feet off the ground. This will be dependent on the timing of the front has fluctuated between early morning and early afternoon. Earlier would pose less potential for strong gusts accompanying the showers, later would pose more. It wouldn't require a whole lot of depth to the unstable layer to get things mixed down, so will certainly require monitoring. Then, continued cold advection in northwest flow likely results in some lake effect and upslope precip late Friday into early Saturday. For most, this will be a cool, windy scattered rain/graupel shower setup. For some, the first novelty snowflakes of the season aren't out of the question. Ground temperatures will be too warm to see it stick, and there's some question to the remaining depth of the moisture and whether or not it's deep enough to generate snowflakes or sits in the favored supercooled liquid region. Ensemble 850 mb temperatures suggest the coldest to the north and east with a colder outlier extending farther west. So the most favored area to see some white stuff falling should be the highest elevations of PA and WV and the far reaches of our northern tier of counties, unless the outlier solution comes to fruition and colder air filters in farther west. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The frontal boundary continues to sink southward and has recently passed HLG and LBE, where northerly gusts have picked up. The progress of the front is expected to slow some overnight. Behind the front, MVFR ceilings continue to drop from north to south. Past midnight, rain coverage will drop off, but ceilings may begin to rise. Models continue to highlight rises back into low end VFR (outside of MGW/FKL/DUJ) with approaching dry air. Ceilings look to be on their way back down to MVFR from south to north tomorrow as the front begins to advance back north as a warm front after sunrise on Thursday. Rain chances through 00Z remain low and preclude mention. Increasing shower coverage ispossible after 00Z with increasing warm advection. Outlook... The warm front should return shower and possible thunderstorm chances later in the day through Thursday night, along with continued ceiling restrictions. A strong cold front is expected to cross the region from W-E Friday, with showers and W-NW wind gusts from 30-40kt. Gusts from 40-45 kt are possible across the higher terrain. VFR should return Saturday and Sunday as wind diminishes under building high pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MLB/Shallenberger AVIATION...CL/AK  751 FXUS64 KLCH 150052 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 752 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated fire weather concerns Friday and Saturday with a Red Flag Watch for Friday and likely for Saturday as well. - Record to near record heat is forecast across central and south central Louisiana today and Thursday. - High winds Friday and Saturday are likely to cause to marine and onshore wind advisories. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 The upper-level ridge that has dominated our weather pattern is finally weakening and being pushed to the east as an upper-level low propagates in from the desert Southwest. At the surface, high pressure on the east coast continues to cause southerly winds that originate from the Gulf. With the warm and moist air from the Gulf, we will have another warmer-than-average night with lows barely dropping into the 60s area-wide. With a dew point depression of only 1 to 2 degrees along with calm winds, more dense fog could form tonight across the region. The fog will mainly be radiation fog and should quickly clear up after sunrise but with our southern winds some marine influence could keep some pockets of fog along the coast later in the morning. Thursday will mostly be a repeat of today, but with slightly lower temperatures as the ridge continues to weaken overhead. On Friday, an approaching cold front will be pushed across the region as the upper-level low mentioned above moves across the central CONUS. This will be a dry front with low-end precipitation chances, as PoPs stay below 20% north of I-10 and around 30 to 40% closer to the coast. The main impact from this front will be the advection of a cool, dry continental air mass into the region. There are two main weather concerns with this front: the first will be wind speeds, with sustained winds approaching 20 mph along and south of the I-10 corridor and gusts up to 30 mph. The second major concern will be fire weather. With the ongoing drought conditions, we have KBDI values well into the 700s, with 10- and 100-hour fuel moisture values hovering around 25%. Subsidence behind the front will further dry out the already dry continental air mass leading to a significant drop in dew points following the front. The forecast drops RH values below 30% across central Louisiana and the interior portions of southeast Texas. Friday through Sunday look to be concerning for fire weather. However, Saturday appears to be the most critical day as the dry, subsided airmass becomes fully entrenched over the highly dried out fuels. This setup is similar to the weather conditions that sparked the Tiger Island fire in 2023 any fires that do spark could quickly spread out of control. The extended forecast unfortunately remains dry, but it will be less muggy as high pressure will be located to our northeast, allowing for easterly winds across the region. A weak ridge at 500 mb will keep our temperatures elevated through next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 746 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Moisture is beginning to pool at the surface beneath an expansively dry airmass. Within this developing sfc inversion, areas of fog may develop in the early morining hours Thursday. There is some confidence in location with AEX, LFT and ARA prevailing down to 1 to 2 SM, with a decrease to the west. VIS shouldn't be as low as Acadiana and a tempo group down to 5sm was included at LCH. Otherwise, dry VFR conditions can be anticipated. && .MARINE... Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Conditions will remain calm through Thursday night with light to moderate onshore winds. On Friday, a cold front will move offshore, causing widespread rain and a few thunderstorms. Behind the front, winds will quickly increase with offshore winds reaching 20 knots on Friday afternoon, then 30 knots by Friday evening. On Saturday, sustained winds will approach Gale strength with gusts up to 40 knots. With the high wind speeds, waves will quickly respond with heights up to 10 feet expected 40 nm offshore and up to 5 feet close to shore. Mariners should watch the forecast closely over the next several days. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 With the ongoing drought conditions, we have KBDI values well into the 700s, with 10-hour and 100-hour fuel moisture values hovering around 25%. Subsidence behind the front will further dry out the already dry continental air mass, leading to a significant drop in dew points following the front. The forecast drops RH values below 30% across central Louisiana and the interior portions of southeast Texas. Friday through Sunday look to be concerning for fire weather. However, Saturday appears to be the most critical day as the dry, subsided airmass becomes fully entrenched over the highly dried out fuels. This setup is similar to the weather conditions that sparked the Tiger Island fire in 2023, and fires that do spark could quickly spread out of control. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for LAZ027>033-044-045-141>143. TX...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for TXZ180-201-259>262. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14 AVIATION...11