461 FXUS61 KBGM 150128 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 928 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Kept previous changes made to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strengthening low passes north of the region Friday into Saturday bringing rain, wind, as well as a strong cold front. 2) High pressure and southwest flow will lead to a gradual warm up through next week after a chilly weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 A trough digging into the front range of the Rockies today will help two shortwaves phase. A strong early season low pressure system forms and moves into the Great Lakes region Thursday night into Friday. A warm front lifts into the northeast Thursday night with rain overspreading the area. There is still some uncertainty if the warm front can lift all the way through our region into northern NY putting us completely in the warm sector or if the front may stall near the I-90 corridor. If we are in the warm sector, strong warm air advection drives 850 mb temperatures to around 15C so areas that see breaks of sun may warm into the mid 70s. Full sun may drive temperatures into the upper 70s but given the moisture in place in forecast soundings, odds are there will be plenty of clouds. Showers and drizzle may be persistent as well in the warm sector. Given the cloud cover and fairly stable warm sector, severe thunderstorms are not anticipated as the cap will be tough to break. Shear is in place, with 0-6 km shear around 50 knots. The main trigger for any storms will be the frontal passage in the afternoon so there is a chance that a few thunderstorms along the cold front could become severe with strong wind gusts being the main concern. NEPA would have the best chance at getting breaks of sun and some better instability. SPC has a marginal risk just to the south and it could be expanded northward though todays model trends have been to a slightly weaker low. Post frontal, the 850 mb temperatures drop nearly 25C from around 15C above to -7C to -9C. Lake effect rain showers quickly develop for much of the Southern Tier and Northward. It does look like towards Sunrise Saturday, as the 850 mb temperatures near their lowest readings, that some wet snow will mix in with the lake effect rain at elevations above 800 feet or so. With the lake effect winding down by then as subsidence takes over with high pressure building in, no accumulation is expected. Saturday will be windy under the strong cold air advection, with winds bumped up over the NBM. BUFKIT soundings hint that gusts could approach 40 mph though that will likely be in the higher terrain though gusts over 30 are likely region wide. KEY MESSAGE 2 Saturday night into Sunday is looking cold as surface high pressure builds in. Depending if we can completely clear from some lake effect clouds, we could radiate out well into the 20s for much of the area. Even so, it is likely we see the first widespread killing freeze. Sunday and beyond, upper level ridging builds back in and 500 mb heights rise back above 580 dm. offshore flow and slow moisture return will also keep us dry through most of next week. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mostly MVFR CIGs expected tonight as the axis of a weak trough crosses the region. Occasional breaks in the cloud decks or increased cloud base heights will allow for brief improvements to VFR. Winds will briefly increase some during the overnight out of the northwest to north with weak cold air advection and a decent LLJ overhead during the overnight period. Thursday, clouds will start to diminish in coverage and cloud base heights will start to increase, resulting in VFR flight conditions for all terminals by the late morning and early afternoon. Clouds will start to increase later in the dayahead of the next system. Outlook... Thursday night Friday...Low pressure system passing by, increasing winds and rain will lead to restrictions. Potential for LLWS will increase for the second half of Thursday night. Saturday...Lake effect cloud cover keeps cig restrictions likely for all terminals but AVP. Early morning snow showers possible at ITH and BGM. Sunday into Monday...High pressure returns with mostly VFR conditions expected. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJG AVIATION...SJW  496 FXHW60 PHFO 150159 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 359 PM HST Wed Oct 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Moderate trades will build to breezy levels Thursday as weak troughing near the state dissipates and a new surface high develops north of the state. Expect limited mainly windward and mauka clouds and showers into next week. Showers should increase slightly in coverage and strength late Friday into the weekend as winds become slightly stronger. && .DISCUSSION... Radar and satellite show scattered showers and mostly cloudy skies across the Puna and Ka'u districts of the Big Island this afternoon. Skies were partly to mostly sunny with isolated showers over eastern Maui, and mostly sunny elsewhere. Winds were generally out of the east to northeast at 5 to 15 mph, except for locations downwind of terrain, where light west winds were common. Forecast models are in good agreement that a series of surface high pressure systems will move west-to-east across the northern Pacific, giving us an extended period of trade winds. By early next week, surface troughing may develop as a strong upper level ridge develops to our north. This troughing could lead to an increase in showers from late in the weekend into early next week, especially on the eastern end of the state. Confidence is not high at this time, as models are not in agreement on how much moisture may move into the region. Otherwise, expect a typical trade wind regime, with mainly windward and mauka showers, most numerous at night. && .AVIATION... Moderate trades hold through tonight before strengthening to breezy levels Thursday. An area of enhanced moisture will move from east to west across the state tonight, increasing clouds and showers for windward and mauka areas. Brief MVFR ceilings may occur within better organized showers, but mostly VFR conditions should prevail. AIRMET Sierra has been issued for windward areas of the Big Island as an area of clouds and showers fills in this evening. Maui may need to added to this AIRMET later this evening. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure far northwest of the islands will move closer tonight and Thursday, then build as it moves to the north then northeast of Hawaii on Friday. As a result, trade winds will gradually increase to fresh to locally strong levels over the next couple of days. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been issued for the typically windy waters around Big Island and Maui starting Thursday. A stronger surface high will pass far north of the islands late Saturday and Sunday, likely increasing trade winds and possibly necessitating an expansion of the SCA to additional waters. Elevated trade winds will persist into early next week. The current northwest swell will continue a gradual decline through Thursday, followed by a moderate north-northwest swell Friday through the weekend. The current swell has lowered to around 4 ft at 12 to 13 seconds this afternoon and will slowly fall through Thursday. The next swell will be from the north- northwest and will arrive early Friday. Surf along north and west facing shores should top out around seasonal average during the peak of the swell Friday afternoon and Saturday, then slowly decline late Saturday and Sunday as the dropping swell shifts more northerly and a smaller overlapping northwest swell arrives. Both swells will fade early next week. Surf along south facing shores will briefly fall near or just below seasonal average as the current south swell continues a slow decline tonight. A new long-periond south swell will build Thursday and may push south shore surf back above seasonal average through Friday. The swell will slowly decline Saturday through early next week. Surf along east facing shores will remain small through Thursdayand will steadily increase Friday as trade winds strengthen over the region. Rough trade wind swell will produce east shore surf above seasonal average Saturday through early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Moderate trade winds will strengthen to breezy levels Thursday. Dry air will keep RH levels at near-critical values each afternoon for parts of the state Friday through Sunday. RH values are expected to increase from Monday through the middle of next week. Winds will remain below critical thresholds. Inversion heights today should range from about 5,000 to 6,000 ft through Thursday. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 PM HST Saturday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel. && $$ DISCUSSION...Parker AVIATION...Almanza MARINE...Wroe