503 FXUS62 KMHX 150215 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1015 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... New Bern (KEWN) broke a record High today. See REREWN for more info. Two separate hot spots were observed on satellite earlier today, indicating some fire activity over SWern zones. First in Duplin County, W of Richlands. Second was in NE Onslow county. Smoke plume was thinning around sunset and was never dense enough to show on radar, so have not added smoke to grids. Previous Update...Aviation Disco Updated. Increased pops markedly for Saturday. Confidence in dangerous marine conditions increasing for this weekend into early next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry with record heat possible through Friday. 2) A trend towards a much wetter Saturday than previously thought with slow moving front and low pres forming along it bringing gusty winds and rain. 3) Drastically cooler behind the front and low for Sunday, along with continued breezy northeasterly winds. Marine: Prolonged large seas into next week as offshore front stalls with long period fetch of easterly swell and possible low pres development off the southeast coast. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure builds in from the west through most of this week with sunny skies. Building hts as upper ridge strengthens sends temps soaring through the 80s and nearing 90 for some interior locales (record high climate section below). A back door front moves into nrn parts of ENC later Thur with some increasing cloud cover and slightly cooler temps behind it, but quickly retreats north by early Friday with another surge of swrly flow ahead of much stronger front. No moisture with the backdoor front, and only temporary reductions in temps for nrn 1/3 of ENC. KEY MESSAGE 2...A trend towards a slower frontal arrival and progression, with low pres development along the frontal zone on Saturday. Followed closely to the ECM, which has been setting this trend over the last several runs, with the 14/12Z continuing this wet trend with high pops, but rather low QPF which is typical with ana fronts, where stratiform rain follows the sfc front. GFS is now an outlier, with most of the global model suite on board with the wetter trend, so it has been discounted. Cold front finally passes through the coast around 12Z Sat morning, thus Fri night still quite mild in swrly flow. Non-diurnal temp trend Sat with temps cooling through the day with rain, clouds, and strengthening nrly winds. Regarding the winds, model trends have also trended upwards with winds, with gales in frequent gusts now likely for most marine zones including the sounds, and favorably aligned Alligator River, as ECM probs for these gales now over 80%. Winds adv criteria fcst for the OBX zones, as well as perhaps portions of the adjacent coastal mainland. Will have to watch for minor coastal flood concerns for srn portions of Pamlico Sound and the coastal areas of the OBX. KEY MESSAGE 3...Coolest and driest airmass for the fall season thus far builds in behind the front Sat night and beyond with temps taking a nosedive with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s (inland) and 50s (beaches). However, depending how offshore the front makes it, could keep things a bit milder than fcst if some clouds advect in from offshore keeping the nighttime mins a bit warmer than advertised. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR SKC continues with light swrly breezes. No guidance shows ANY fog development with all model suites showing winds remaining AoA 2-3kt through the overnight. Naturally, ISO, OCW, and DPL are showing that the winds have decoupled. Should the winds remain decoupled, fog development will be possible which could lead to flight restrictions due to VIS. Given how poorly models have done with the potential for winds to decouple overnight, have added a tempo MVFR VIS group for OAJ. That site has the best chance for winds to decouple long enough, plus there was a fire NW of the terminal in Duplin county as well as one NE of the terminal. Smoke plume was never dense enough to show on radar, and visible satellite showed the plume was thinning just before sunset. Did not include FU in the TAFs because of this, but lingering smoke could aid fog development/further dampen VIS should winds decouple. A dry backdoor front sags into the FA THU from N to S through the day tomorrow before briefly stalling somewhere between the Pamlico and Neuse Rivers overnight. No precip is expected, mostly just a wind shift and maybe some increased cloud coverage along and near the front. Flight cats still expected to remain VFR despite the front through daylight hours THU. Outlook (Fri through Mon): Pred VFR conditions cont Friday with swrly breezes inc ahead of cold front. Strong and slow moving cold front brings widespread light rain on Sat, with sub VFR likely behind the front later Sat with frontal inversion developing, along with gusty north winds through the day Sat. Clearing skies Sat night with winds tapering off as high pres attempts to build in for the latter half of the weekend into next week. && .MARINE... Latest obs show SW winds 5-10 knots most locales with seas mainly 1-3 ft. High pressure will continue to the north allowing for predom swrly flow but no higher than 5-15 kt tonight with some gusts nearing 15 kt. Backdoor front oozes through the nrn waters and sound on Thu, though does not make it past Pamlico sound. To the north of the bndry, nerly breezes expected though remaining light, and to the south, generally swrly to srly continued light flow. Outlook (Fri through Mon): A strong cold front has trended slower, now not expected to clear the waters until Sat. Strong nrly winds develop in it's wake on Sat, peaking later afternoon through Sat evening with gales appearing likely for all coastal waters and most of the sounds including Alligator river. Seas build quickly as well, with seas of 6-11 ft appearing more likely through the weekend, only easing slightly into early next week with SCA conditions appearing likely Sunday into early next week with stout nerly breezes and cont large swell. Trend from the AIFS (Euro AI) indicates low pres development off the Southeast US coast early next week, which may bring winds to near gales and continue very large seas over 10 ft, and will cont to monitor this potential over the coming days. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for 10/15 (Thursday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 88/1935 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 84/1919 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 89/1985 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 86/1990 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 89/1985 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 90/1975 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 10/16 (Friday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 86/1975 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 83/1919 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 90/1968 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 84/1917 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 86/2008 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 88/1975 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TL/CEB AVIATION...CEB MARINE...TL/RJ  566 FXUS66 KLOX 150217 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 717 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...14/638 PM. A moderate to strong Santa Ana Wind event kicks off tomorrow, bringing widespread critical fire weather conditions to much of Southwest California through Saturday. Additionally, very warm temperatures bring a high risk of heat illness to all coastal areas. A significant cool down with a chance of widespread rain is expected next week. && .SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...14/217 PM. The first Santa Ana event for the season is going to be a strong one. Forecast models and ensemble gradients are all pointing to a strong event with with 50kt northeast winds at 850mb and surface gradients around 8-9mb from the east. There have been some gusty north to northeast winds to 30-40mph this morning in the San Gabriel Mountains and across the western San Fernando Valley. But the primary days will be Thursday through Saturday, with Friday being the strongest. During that peak period wind gusts across the LA/Ventura mountains are expected to reach as high as 70 mph while the LA/Ventura Valleys and Ventura coastal areas peak at around 55 mph. Typical Santa Anas do not include the LA Metro area, Antelope Valley, or Central Coast but some of the latest model forecasts indicate at least some 15-30 mph gusts in those areas. Temperatures have started to warm up today and that trend will continue through Friday. Due to the strong subsidence associated with this event and relatively warmer air aloft this will be a very hot Santa Ana, with coastal areas being the warmest. Model forecasts for today had a 3-6 degree cold bias so there's a good chance that there will a similar bias the next couple days. With that in mind high temperatures have been increased by at least a few degrees Thursday and Friday. Most coastal areas, including SLO and Santa Barbara Counties will be in the 90s by Friday and heat advisories are in effect. Valleys will be a little cooler but still in the mid 80s to mid 90s. And there is a 5-10 percent chance of some 100 degree highs as well. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...14/201 PM. A rapid cooling trend is expected to begin Sunday for coastal areas as a low pressure system moving into the Pac NW initiates strong return to onshore flow. Coastal areas will drop 10-15 degrees from Saturday and could see a return of low clouds and fog as early as Monday. Valleys and other interior areas will maintain their respective temperatures through around Monday before the cooling finally arrives with the next storm system on Tuesday. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with the track of that system. Models initially had it moving much farther inland but later solutions have trended more to the west. Roughly 20-30% of the current solutions show some light rain chances as early as late Tuesday, but there are just as many solutions holding off until as late Thursday due to the storm tracking even farther off the coast. Either way, there is high confidence in a much cooler pattern by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...15/0212Z. At 00Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion. High confidence in CAVU TAFs, moderate confidence in winds. Timing and strength of gusty NE winds may be off by 2-3 hours and 10kt respectively. KLAX...High confidence in CAVU TAF. Any east wind component will be AOB 7 kts 10Z-16Z. Light east winds are again possible by Friday 03Z. KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF. Moderate confidence in winds, and N to NE winds may begin as early as 10Z. && .MARINE...14/216 PM. Santa Ana Winds will affect our inner waters south of Point Conception Thursday through Saturday morning. Strongest during the late night into early afternoon hours. These hazardous NE-E windswill be focused from Ventura to Santa Monica and out past Anacapa Island. These winds could become hazardous across the San Pedro Channel Friday morning with a 25% chc of 25 kt gusts at Avalon Harbor. The worst conditions are expected Friday morning with the most concern nearshore from Ventura-Malibu. Gale Watches have been issued to target these waters. Refer to MWWLOX for more details. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) may be needed for the nearshore waters along the Central Coast Friday morning due to gusty offshore winds. There is a solid signal for a trough early to mid next week which could bring hazardous boating conditions along with rain chances to our coastal waters. Will monitor this system. Long period swells from the west and the south are affecting the coastal waters, and can create a confused sea state. This can make boating more challenging and dangerous, especially for small vessels. && .FIRE WEATHER...14/909 AM. Offshore flow will steadily increase each day through Thursday or Friday, then weaken over the weekend. During the Thursday and Friday peak, northeast winds of 20 to 40 mph with gusts to 40 to 60 mph will be common over the wind prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, with localized gusts of 60 to 70 mph in the mountains. Winds will be unusually widespread on Friday, when much of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo will experience a few hours windy conditions, especially the interior mountains where winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected. Meanwhile, the air will rapidly warm and dry. High temperatures between 85 and 95 will be common by Friday, warmest near the coast where the risk for heat illness is high. Minimum humidities will generally lower into the 5 to 15 percent range by Friday, with poor overnight recoveries starting Thursday. All of this will add up to a high risk for large fires and rapid fire growth over most of the area, especially over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties as well as interior San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties where Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches are in place. While some areas received rain earlier this week, the dry day today will largely remove any benefiting effects on the fuels. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 6 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-370>374-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 340-341-346-347-349-350-354-355-362-366>368. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Thursday afternoon for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect from 6 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 369-375-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect from 6 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 288-354-355-358-362-369>382-548. (See LAXRFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect from 3 AM to 6 PM PDT Friday for zones 345-353. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Thursday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from late Thursday night through Friday afternoon for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...Phillips MARINE...Black FIRE...RK SYNOPSIS...Lewis weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  663 FXUS61 KRLX 150221 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1021 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Scattered showers, some locally heavy, continue across portions of northeast Kentucky into southern and eastern West Virginia along a now stalling cold front. Expect this trend to continue overnight, which could result in isolated high water issues if showers were to train across the same areas for an extended amount of time. In addition, 00Z Aviation Discussion update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Round one of showers and thunderstorms occurs later this afternoon into early Thursday morning as a cold front drops into the region. An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible and repetitive showers/storms may cause some localized flash flooding. 2) Round two of showers with gusty winds accompany a cold frontal passage on Friday. 3) Much cooler temperatures with a threat of a frost/freeze over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front will sag south into the area tonight bringing increasing showers and thunderstorms. A weak wave of low pressure also moves along the front, enhancing rainfall at times. Ahead of the front, temperatures have soared to well above normal values and southwesterly low level winds have pumped ample moisture northward with PWATS approaching 2 inches along the front. All of this points to a potential for a few severe thunderstorms later this afternoon, with gusty winds the primary threat, and then heavy rainfall overnight as the front stalls out bisecting the area in a west to east orientation. This sets up the potential for repetitive rounds of showers and storms with WPC highlighting a large chunk of our CWA under a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall overnight. The front lifts north as a warm front tomorrow resulting in a lull in precipitation during the afternoon and another warm day. KEY MESSAGE 2... Forecast models continue to slow down the frontal passage on Friday with the general consensus now being a midday or afternoon passage. This should be accompanied by a broken line of showers, with just enough instability for perhaps a thunderstorm or two. The bigger concern is gusty winds though with potential for widespread 30 to 40 mph winds and higher in the higher elevations. This will cause scattered power outages if it materializes. KEY MESSAGE 3... Breezy north winds continue to usher in a seasonably cool airmass Saturday with a few light rain showers, and maybe some mountain flurries in the morning. Winds then die down Saturday night as a sprawling area of high pressure builds in and this will support temperatures falling to around freezing for many locations and frost/freeze headlines will likely be needed. Temperatures then slowly moderate into next week but at least some patchy frost will again be possible Sunday night into Monday morning. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A cold front will continue to sink south into the area overnight, before lifting back north as a warm front on Thursday during the day. Mainly VFR conditions at present will gradually deteriorate overnight in low stratus and patchy fog, with MVFR/IFR expected across much of the area by later tonight. Scattered showers will continue overnight, especially central/south. A very slow return to VFR is expected during the day on Thursday following the passage of the warm front northward, with some locations central/north remaining MVFR or even IFR through the remainder of this TAF period (until 00Z Friday). Light surface flow is expected throughout this TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions overnight into Thursday morning will likely vary from the forecast depending on rainfall, low stratus, and patchy fog. Improvement in flight conditions later Thursday will also vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 10/15/26 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H M H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H L M L L M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H M H H H M M H H H M H PKB CONSISTENCY L H H M H H H M M L M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H M M H H H H AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR conditions are also possible with a strong cold front Friday into Friday night. IFR river valley fog is possible Sunday and Monday mornings. && .Climate... A high temperature of 85 degrees was observed at Parkersburg on Wednesday, tying the old record of 85 degrees first set in 1954 and later tied in 1962. A high temperature of 82 degrees was observed at Elkins on Wednesday, tying the old record of 82 degrees first set in 1899 and later tied in 1940 and 2017. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ABE/GW AVIATION...GW CLIMATE...GW  697 FXPQ50 PGUM 150222 CCA AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Tiyan GU 1222 PM ChST Thu Oct 15 2026 correction to 29W in western Micronesia update section .Update... With the first warning going out on Tropical Depression 29W, went ahead and ran cyclone grids. This raised the wind speeds and the PoP's. Those are the main changes this morning, but stay on the watch for a Special Weather Statement later this morning, and possibly tropical cyclone watches in the afternoon. && .Hydrology Update... The models are predicting about 5 inches of rain near the center, so we're looking at more like 6 to 12 inches likely near the center of Tropical Depression 29W. Therefore, contacted the National Water Center and asked them to add us as a Limited area on the Flood Hazard Outlook. Once we can narrow down where 29W is going, we might ask for at least part of the Marianas to be upgraded from Limited to Considerable. && .Tropical Systems Update... Tropical Depression (TD) 28W is currently located south of Iwo To near 22.7N 141.1E, and it is moving northwest at 14 mph. 28W is expected to turn toward the west with a decrease in forward speed through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are around 35 mph, and it is expected to weaken tonight. Satellite reveals a weak low- level circulation center with isolated thunderstorms along the northern and southeast flanks, with little convective activity elsewhere. 28W is expected to continue to weaken through the end of the week as it opens into a surface wave, probably Friday night or Saturday, somewhere west of Iwo To. For more information please refer to bulletins from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW and from the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM. Invest 96W has strengthened, and is now known as Tropical Depression 29W. 29W is located to the north-northeast of Pohnpei, near 10.6N 160.1E. Himawari infra-red satellite imagery this morning shows a somewhat sheared system, with numerous to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms located along its southwestern through northwestern flanks, focused over and north of Pohnpei. The low- level circulation center and eastern flank are partially exposed, with patchy showers seen across the area including the northern Marshall Islands. Deterministic and ensemble model guidance continue to show a Marianas passage sometime between late Saturday evening and Sunday night. Although most tracks take the developing cyclone directly through the southern Marianas, individual model tracks range from passing to the south of Guam, to far north of Saipan, potentially as a well-developed typhoon (sustained winds 74+ mph). Uncertainty remains high in the eventual track and intensity of Invest 96W. Residents of the Marianas are urged to begin making preparations, stay informed, and monitor for updates from the National Weather Service in Tiyan, Guam, as well as local emergency management. For more information on Invest 96W, see bulletins issued by JTWC under WMO header ABPW10 PGTW. && .Eastern Micronesia Update... A few changes were needed to the forecast package, starting out with Invest 96W being elevated to Tropical Depression 29W. Due this this feature building in strength, the Special Weather Statement (SPS) and Small Craft Advisory (for Kosrae) were extended through the afternoon package. Over night ASCAT shows winds near Kosrae around 25 knots. Winds this evening at Kosrae are expected to diminish below Small Craft Advisory thresholds. Numerous locally heavy showers remain in the forecast for Pohnpei, and scattered showers for Majuro. Seas are expected to remain 6 to 8 feet in the west and tapering down to 6 feet in the easts. Winds near Pohnpei and Kosrae are expected to be moderate tostrong with gusts to near gale while 29W remains near by. Winds near Majuro are expected to be gentle to moderate. && .Western Micronesia Update... No changes were needed at Yap or Palau, where the weather forecast is kind of steady state right now. The changes at Chuuk were minor, mainly to reword the headline from ending tonight to ending Sunday. Especially Saturday and Sunday will likely need a Small Craft Advisory. This will be due to Tropical Depression 29W and the enhanced monsoon winds flowing into it. && .Prev discussion... /issued 744 PM ChST Wed Oct 14 2026/ Marianas Synopsis... Visible satellite and Doppler radar reveal partly cloudy skies and isolated showers across the region. Altimetry indicates combined seas of 3 to 4 feet. Discussion... A surface trough extending between Invest 96W to the east-southeast and Tropical Depression 28W to the north-northwest will encroach upon Saipan and Tinian tonight and linger through Thursday, bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The zones were split due to short-term differences in shower coverage as drier air will remain over Guam and Rota. Island-effect showers may be possible for these islands, but easterly winds are expected to advect these showers over western coastal waters, similar to the pattern that occurred today. Afterwards, isolated showers will return for the entire region through Friday night. Then, weather conditions may begin to deteriorate Saturday as Invest 96W potentially tracks through the Marianas as a tropical storm or typhoon. Widespread locally heavy showers, near-gale winds, and thunderstorms are forecast from Saturday night through Sunday night, with a peak of the worst conditions around Sunday. Shortly afterwards, shower coverage looks to decrease to isolated with light and variable winds possibly returning after Monday night. Residents of the Marianas should continue storm preparations and stay up to date with the forecasts in the coming days. Marine... Altimetry data indicates combined seas of 3 to 4 feet. Seas are expected to increase a foot or two through Friday. Then, seas will significantly increase sometime Friday night ahead of Invest 96W, with conditions hazardous to small craft possible through Monday. Light east winds will become light to moderate northeasterlies by late Thursday, before rapidly increasing through the weekend. There is a moderate risk of rip currents along north and east facing reefs at least through Thursday night with dangerous surf conditions probable this weekend. Those with marine interests should monitor the forecasts in the coming days. Hydrology... Invest 96W continues to develop north of Pohnpei and Kosrae. Ensemble model guidance continues to show a passage anywhere between Guam to north of Saipan as a tropical storm or typhoon. Uncertainty is still high regarding timing, location, and intensity, but the potential for locally heavy rainfall and flooding continues to increase approaching this weekend. This is expected to produce 5 to 8 inches of rainfall between Saturday and Monday, with localized amounts up to 12 inches possible. As showers are likely to persist, consistent rainfall is likely to saturate the soils enough to increase chance for mudslides. Residents on these islands need to closely monitor this developing situation as flood watches, advisories, and flash flood warnings could be issued later this weekend. Tropical Systems... Tropical Depression (TD) 28W is currently located south of Iwo To near 21.0N 143.1E, and it is moving northwest at 13 mph. 28W is expected to maintain this general course with a slight decrease in forward speed through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are around 30 mph, and it is expected to maintain this intensity through tonight, remaining a tropical depression as itweakens slightly through Thursday. Satellite reveals a weak low-level circulation center with isolated thunderstorms along the northern and southeast flanks, with little convective activity elsewhere. 28W is expected to continue to weaken through the end of the week as it opens into a surface wave, somewhere west of Iwo To. For more information please refer to bulletins from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW and from the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM. A developing tropical disturbance, Invest 96W, is located to the northeast of Pohnpei, near 9.0N 160.4E. As of 5 AM ChST this morning, Invest 96W remains the subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) by the JTWC, which means it is expected to develop into a significant tropical cyclone (a tropical depression) within 24 hours. Himawari visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows a very broad, elongated disturbance stretching along roughly 10N, with numerous to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms located along its western and southwestern flanks, focused over and south of Pohnpei. The low-level circulation center and eastern flank are mostly exposed, with patchy showers seen across the area including the northern Marshall Islands. Lines of thunderstorms are seen along a convergence boundary within 96W's southwest flank, which extend east-southeast from around Chuuk Lagoon to Kosrae. Deterministic and ensemble model guidance continue to show the development of a broad tropical cyclone over the next few days with most tracks depicting a Marianas passage sometime between late Saturday evening and Sunday night. Although most tracks take the developing cyclone directly through the southern Marianas, individual model tracks range from passing to the south of Guam, to far north of Saipan, potentially as a well-developed typhoon (sustained winds 74+ mph). Uncertainty remains high in the eventual track and intensity of Invest 96W. Residents of the Marianas are urged to begin making preparations, stay informed, and monitor for updates from the National Weather Service in Tiyan, Guam, as well as local emergency management. For more information on Invest 96W, see bulletins issued by JTWC under WMO header ABPW10 PGTW. Eastern Micronesia... Invest 96W, currently centered northeast of Pohnpei near 9.0N 160.4E, continues to dominate the weather pattern across the region. Bands of scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen within the strong convergence south of 96W's elongated center, stretching eastward from south of Pohnpei to Kosrae, then extending east-northeast to around Majuro Atoll. As Invest 96W shifts west- northwest to pass Pohnpei to the north, winds and showers are expected to increase tonight through Thursday night, with gusty fresh to strong westerlies expected to develop over the island and adjacent coastal waters, with locally heavy rainfall possible at times. Meanwhile, conditions should gradually ease over Kosrae tonight into Thursday as 96W shifts away. A Small Craft Advisory was issued for Pohnpei, in effect from this evening through early Friday morning, as sustained strong winds over the coastal waters will produce choppy sea conditions hazardous to small craft. The Small Craft Advisory for Kosrae expires late tonight as sustained winds diminish below hazardous levels. Combined seas of 6 to 9 feet are expected, with the highest seas expected over the northern waters of Kosrae and Pohnpei. A Special Weather Statement was reissued for Kosrae and Pohnpei to highlight the unsettled weather associated with Invest 96W, but Kosrae may be dropped from the next issuance as conditions are expected to improve there overnight. Western Micronesia... The convergence zone within the southern peripheries of the monsoon axis continuesto produce patchy showers and some thunderstorms across much of western Micronesia south of 10N, bringing said weather conditions to Palau and Yap the next few days. After, conditions are expected to steadily improve as the convergence zone weakens under the expansion of the monsoon trough, mainly under the influence of developing Invest 96W that will move across the Marianas during the weekend. Chuuk is well within an enhanced monsoon surge building along the southwestern fringes of Invest 96W, which is likely to deepen over the coming days, bringing numerous heavy showers and some thunderstorms tonight through Thursday night. As 96W moves away from the area, winds will continue to increase across Chuuk during the weekend, potentially reaching near gale-force by Saturday. Combined seas of 3 to 5 feet across Palau and Yap waters are expected to drop a foot or two over the next few days, to begin increasing this weekend as distant swells from 96W arrive to the region. Combined seas of 4 to 5 feet near Chuuk are expected to increase for much of the week, potentially reaching levels hazardous to small craft over the weekend. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...None. MP...None. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ East Micronesia: Bowsher Marianas and West Micronesia/Tropical Update: Stanko Marianas: Mesa East Micronesia/Tropical: DeCou West Micronesia: Montvila  755 FXUS63 KFSD 150225 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 925 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain expands tonight into early Thursday morning, tapering off from west to east Thursday afternoon. Rain totals increase from north to south from around a tenth of an inch near US Highway 14 to around 0.75" near US Highway 20. Isolated higher amounts possible along/south of US Highway 20. - Strong northwest wind gusts 30 to 45 mph behind the rain Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Gusts around 50 mph expected across south central South Dakota and possible (30- 40% chance) along the Buffalo Ridge. - Moderate to high (50% or greater) chances of frost for most of the area Friday night into Saturday morning, highest near and east of Interstate 29 with temperatures around or below 36 degrees F. Low to moderate (40% or less) chances of a freeze (temperatures near 32 degrees F) east of I-29. - Dry conditions and warmer temperatures return this weekend into early next week with highs back above normal. && .UPDATE... Issued at 922 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 No significant chances to the precipitation chances and coverage this evening into Thursday afternoon, with minor adjustments to the timing and coverage. Soundings show a bit less instability, so expect thunderstorms south of I-90 to be more isolated and infrequent than previous forecast. Hi-res models and other guidance this afternoon/evening has trended up with strong winds behind the rain and surface cold front moving east tomorrow afternoon and evening. Duration of gusts may continue through daybreak Friday as strong lower level CAA and stronger LLJ track east. Soundings show gusts of 30 to 50 mph mixing down, strongest west of the James River Valley and also along the higher elevations of the Buffalo Ridge. RAP/HRRR/GFS have the strongest winds - due to mixing a bit deeper and showing stronger winds at the top of the mixed layer than the NAM. Latest NBM reflects this increase, but still may be too low. Further adjustments may be needed as more of the 15.00z and later guidance comes in. Have issued a Wind Advisory for south central SD Thursday afternoon and night, where confidence is highest in gusts 45-50 mph at this time. Winds still look to taper down during the afternoon and evening. Looking ahead, ensemble probabilities for a frost (temperatures near and below 36 degrees F) and a freeze (temperatures near 32 degrees F) are increasing for Friday night into Saturday morning. Probability remains highest near/east of I-29. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Bufkit soundings indicate a persistent, shallow layer of low stratus clouds for the remainder of today. Clouds will likely limit our highs somewhat from what the NBM loaded, adjusted down slightly with a blend of NBM/CONSShort. Overnight lows will fall to the 40s. Meanwhile a southern stream upper trough located over the central Rockies will work east through the rest of today. Early this evening the trough and associated surface low will eject out onto the central plains and then accelerate northeast. As it does so scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will form over western Nebraska and Kansas. These will move northeast with the system and begin to impact south central South Dakota between roughly 6 and 8 pm CDT tonight. Scattered showers and storms should be in the Sioux Falls area roughly between 10 pm and midnight. As the surface low skirts just to the south of the CWA early Thursday morning showers and storms become more numerous, especially for areas along and south of I-90 and into northwest Iowa. Here a few stronger storms may produce more frequent lightning and isolated pockets of heavy rain. Severe weatheris not anticipated. Late Thursday morning into the afternoon a northern stream upper trough and surface low will move into central Canada. A cold front will form off of this low and will pass through the region from the northwest to the southeast. Behind the front storms end and clouds begin to break up Thursday afternoon and into the evening. Simultaneously the northern stream wave extends south, eventually phasing into the southern stream wave. This will result in an amplifying effect as the now deep amplitude upper trough tightens and narrows. Thursday evening the LLJ responds to this amplification by ramping quickly up to 50+ mph. These strong winds will mix down resulting in surface gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Occasional gusts as high as 45 mph are also possible over central South Dakota. Our western most counties may briefly approach Wind Advisory criteria late Thursday evening, but guidance is not in good agreement at this time. As such, have opted to wait on a wind headline at this time. Winds generally decrease as you move to the east but will remain gusty at 25-35 mph. The stronger winds gradually move east overnight into Friday morning. Additional wind concerns will be along the lee side of Buffalo Ridge where additional gusts of 40+ mph are possible. As far as rain totals are concerned the latest guidance has trended down a little. Areas along Highway 14 and north will only see a trace up to a tenth or two. As you move south toward I-90 totals increase to a couple tenths up to 0.30 inches. For areas along and south of I-90 guidance indicates rain totals ranging from 0.25 to 0.75 inches, with highest totals focused over northwest Iowa. Areas along and south of Highway 20 may see isolated pockets up to 1 inch. Breezy winds continue into early Friday afternoon before gradually tapering off Friday evening. Friday highs will be on the cool side of climatology thanks to strong CAA on northwesterly winds, in the low to mid 50s. Skies clear through the day and remain clear through the overnight. This will allow for maximum radiational cooling, resulting in low temperatures by sunrise Saturday in the low to mid 30s. Area of frost are possible, mainly west of the James River Valley. Clear skies continue for Saturday as winds turn southerly and usher in warmer air. Highs will climb into the low to upper 60s, warmest over central South Dakota. No concerns at this time for frost Saturday night into Sunday morning with lows in the 40s. Sunday will be another mostly clear day with continued WAA. Highs will climb into the mid to upper 60s with lows in the 40s. Dry conditions and highs in the 60s and low 70s continue into the first half of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Mix of VFR and MVFR stratus this evening gives way to widespread MVFR and IFR conditions as a couple periods of rain move into the area late this evening, continuing through Thursday morning. Rain lingers into the early afternoon east of I-29, finally exiting northwestern IA by mid afternoon. Given latest soundings, have removed TS mention from KSUX, as confidence in occurrence is lower. Can't rule out some isolated TS during the period south of I-90. Light and variable winds early in the period. However, northwesterly winds increase as the precipitation exits Thursday morning and into the afternoon. By the mid afternoon, gusts 25-35 knots are expected. Strongest gusts will be west of the James River into south central SD. Strong winds continue through the end of the forecast period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to midnight CDT Thursday night for SDZ050-052-057-058-063-064. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...SG DISCUSSION...AJPAVIATION...SG  682 FXUS63 KBIS 150249 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 949 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong northwesterly winds with gusts up to 55 mph starting Thursday morning and lingering through Thursday night. - Widespread freezing temperatures are possible Thursday night into Friday morning. - Notably milder temperatures to end the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 949 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Light rain showers are present mainly south of I94, though may meander a bit further north tonight. Adjusted PoPs based on the latest radar trends. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 656 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Organized radar echoes are present mainly in northwestern South Dakota and far southwestern North Dakota, and are gradually working further into southwestern and south central parts of the state. However, the latest model forecast soundings suggest a fair amount of dry air to overcome, with uncertainty as to just how far north saturation will occur. Based on the latest CAMs and radar trends, increased areal coverage of 20 percent PoPs mainly along and south of I94 through tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Near zonal to southwesterly flow is found over the northern Plains as we remain stuck between a two upper level features. The first, a stacked low developing over the southern Plains, is expected to lift to the east this afternoon through the evening. With an inverted surface trough stretching to the north and the increasing moisture returns up ahead of this low, there are some chances (10 to 30 percent) for light precipitation over portions of southwestern and south central North Dakota late this afternoon through early this evening. Overall QPF is expected to be light, around a few hundreths at most for any given location. The second, found to the north of the forecast area, is a stacked low/opening trough over Alberta hat progged to move into Saskatchewan overnight, lofting a cold front across the area that'll begin to turn surface winds tonight into Thursday morning. Otherwise, conditions today across western and central North Dakota are expected to remain fairly calm and dry, with partly to mostly cloudy skies everywhere but the far northwest through this afternoon and seasonable highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s are expected today. With the passage of the cold front overnight, low temperatures across the west are expected to drop as low as the lower to mid 30s west to the upper 30s to lower 40s central. With increasing winds also expected behind the passage of the cold front, we will opt to hold back on issuing a freeze headline at this time. For Thursday, the passage of the cold front and associated CAA across the area is expected to promote strong northwesterly winds through much of the day, with sustained speeds up to 30 MPH and gusts up to 50 MPH expected to mix down from a fairly well organized low to mid level jet. The strongest winds in the morning and early afternoon are anticipated to be found across the west, and especially the southwest, as the core of the jet drops down across the area. Lingering strong winds are then expected across the south central through the evening as the aforementioned cold front exists to the southeast of the forecast area. EFI values during this period are broadly around 0.8-0.9, with a shift of tails across portions of the northwest, where the core of the jet is expected to linger through the morning and afternoon. We have opted to issue a Wind Advisory for all of western and central North Dakota starting 15Z Thursday morning through 05Z Thursday night (10 AM CDT / 9 AM MDT to 12 AM CDT / 11 PM MDT). Otherwise for Thursday, a few showers will be possible across the north central into the northern James River Valley in the afternoon and evening as the opening trough dives south across Minnesota. Seasonable cool highs in the mid 40s west to mid 50s south central are expected with the cold air mass settling over the northern Plains behind the front. With rapidly diminishing winds and clearing skies overnight, lows dropping in the mid 20s to lower 30s west can be anticipated, which could promote a widespread freeze across much of the forecast area. Condition across the northern Plains are then expected to warm as we head into the end of the week as an upper level ridge builds in across the west, with forecast highs mainly in the 50s on Friday becoming highs in the 60s to lower 70s for Saturday and Sunday. Looking ahead into next week, the ensemble has moderately strong agreement (approximately 85 percent of members) on more moderate temperatures as the ridge is squashed by a northern Canadian low, with highs in the 50s and 60s forecast through the early portions of the week. A low membership, underdispersed cluster (approximately 15 percent of members, all GEFS) also exists, which instead advertises the ridge surviving through the midweek, along with seasonably warm temperatures as high as the 60s and 70s, as the influence of the northern Canadian low remains far to the north of the forecast area. Either scenario then captures a pattern shift back toward cooler and wetter weather in the extended turn as a strong Pacific low makes landfall in the southwestern CONUS and makes it way into the Great Plains Wednesday through the end of the workweek, though specifics remain uncertain this far out. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 656 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Light rain is possible mainly along and south of I94 through the night tonight, though ceilings and visibility should remain VFR. The exception being in the James River Valley where low- level stratus has yet to clear off today, though should within the next couple hours. A passing cold frontal boundary Thursday will result in strong northwesterly winds developing during the day, which will linger into the evening hours. MVFR ceilings, along with the potential for isolated showers, are expected for most of the state behind the front. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Thursday to midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ Thursday night for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013- 017>020-022-023-025-031>033-035>037-040>044-046>048-050-051- 055>062. && $$ UPDATE...Telken DISCUSSION...Adam AVIATION...Telken  925 FXUS66 KLOX 150257 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 757 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...14/756 PM. A moderate to strong Santa Ana Wind event kicks off tomorrow, bringing widespread critical fire weather conditions to much of Southwest California through Saturday. Additionally, very warm temperatures bring a high risk of heat illness to all coastal areas. A significant cool down with a chance of widespread rain is expected next week. && .SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...14/756 PM. ***UPDATE*** The first Santa Ana Wind event of the season is on track to produce very gusty northeast to east winds across much of Southwest California starting tomorrow morning. RED FLAG WARNINGS are in effect for much of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties from tomorrow at 6AM through Saturday 8PM. For interior portions of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties, RED FLAG WARNINGS are in effect 3AM-6PM Friday. Extreme fire growth and behavior is expected if any fire starts. A slew of wind products are in effect during similar times, although wind advisories will likely be needed for late Friday through Saturday. Additionally, this Santa Ana will be a very warm one, with coastal areas forecast to experience a high risk of heat illness with the warmest temps in the region. It is imperative to practice wildfire safety and make sure to have plans in place for potential evacuations and/or power outages. ***From Previous Discussion*** The first Santa Ana event for the season is going to be a strong one. Forecast models and ensemble gradients are all pointing to a strong event with with 50kt northeast winds at 850mb and surface gradients around 8-9mb from the east. There have been some gusty north to northeast winds to 30-40mph this morning in the San Gabriel Mountains and across the western San Fernando Valley. But the primary days will be Thursday through Saturday, with Friday being the strongest. During that peak period wind gusts across the LA/Ventura mountains are expected to reach as high as 70 mph while the LA/Ventura Valleys and Ventura coastal areas peak at around 55 mph. Typical Santa Anas do not include the LA Metro area, Antelope Valley, or Central Coast but some of the latest model forecasts indicate at least some 15-30 mph gusts in those areas. Temperatures have started to warm up today and that trend will continue through Friday. Due to the strong subsidence associated with this event and relatively warmer air aloft this will be a very hot Santa Ana, with coastal areas being the warmest. Model forecasts for today had a 3-6 degree cold bias so there's a good chance that there will a similar bias the next couple days. With that in mind high temperatures have been increased by at least a few degrees Thursday and Friday. Most coastal areas, including SLO and Santa Barbara Counties will be in the 90s by Friday and heat advisories are in effect. Valleys will be a little cooler but still in the mid 80s to mid 90s. And there is a 5-10 percent chance of some 100 degree highs as well. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...14/201 PM. A rapid cooling trend is expected to begin Sunday for coastal areas as a low pressure system moving into the Pac NW initiates strong return to onshore flow. Coastal areas will drop 10-15 degrees from Saturday and could see a return of low clouds and fog as early as Monday. Valleys and other interior areas will maintain their respective temperatures through around Monday before the cooling finally arrives with the next storm system on Tuesday. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with the track of that system. Models initially had it moving much farther inland but later solutions have trended more to the west. Roughly 20-30% of the current solutions show some lightrain chances as early as late Tuesday, but there are just as many solutions holding off until as late Thursday due to the storm tracking even farther off the coast. Either way, there is high confidence in a much cooler pattern by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...15/0212Z. At 00Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion. High confidence in CAVU TAFs, moderate confidence in winds. Timing and strength of gusty NE winds may be off by 2-3 hours and 10kt respectively. KLAX...High confidence in CAVU TAF. Any east wind component will be AOB 7 kts 10Z-16Z. Light east winds are again possible by Friday 03Z. KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF. Moderate confidence in winds, and N to NE winds may begin as early as 10Z. && .MARINE...14/216 PM. Santa Ana Winds will affect our inner waters south of Point Conception Thursday through Saturday morning. Strongest during the late night into early afternoon hours. These hazardous NE-E winds will be focused from Ventura to Santa Monica and out past Anacapa Island. These winds could become hazardous across the San Pedro Channel Friday morning with a 25% chc of 25 kt gusts at Avalon Harbor. The worst conditions are expected Friday morning with the most concern nearshore from Ventura-Malibu. Gale Watches have been issued to target these waters. Refer to MWWLOX for more details. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) may be needed for the nearshore waters along the Central Coast Friday morning due to gusty offshore winds. There is a solid signal for a trough early to mid next week which could bring hazardous boating conditions along with rain chances to our coastal waters. Will monitor this system. Long period swells from the west and the south are affecting the coastal waters, and can create a confused sea state. This can make boating more challenging and dangerous, especially for small vessels. && .FIRE WEATHER...14/909 AM. Offshore flow will steadily increase each day through Thursday or Friday, then weaken over the weekend. During the Thursday and Friday peak, northeast winds of 20 to 40 mph with gusts to 40 to 60 mph will be common over the wind prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, with localized gusts of 60 to 70 mph in the mountains. Winds will be unusually widespread on Friday, when much of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo will experience a few hours windy conditions, especially the interior mountains where winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected. Meanwhile, the air will rapidly warm and dry. High temperatures between 85 and 95 will be common by Friday, warmest near the coast where the risk for heat illness is high. Minimum humidities will generally lower into the 5 to 15 percent range by Friday, with poor overnight recoveries starting Thursday. All of this will add up to a high risk for large fires and rapid fire growth over most of the area, especially over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties as well as interior San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties where Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches are in place. While some areas received rain earlier this week, the dry day today will largely remove any benefiting effects on the fuels. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 6 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-370>374-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 340-341-346-347-349-350-354-355-362-366>368. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Thursday afternoon for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect from 6 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 369-375-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect from 6 AM Thursday to 8 PMPDT Saturday for zones 288-354-355-358-362-369>382-548. (See LAXRFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect from 3 AM to 6 PM PDT Friday for zones 345-353. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Thursday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from late Thursday night through Friday afternoon for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW/Lewis AVIATION...Phillips MARINE...Black FIRE...RK SYNOPSIS...Lewis weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox