796 FXUS61 KOKX 150312 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1112 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Gale Watch issued for the ocean waters Friday night through Saturday afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cold front passes through this evening with a return to drier and and more seasonable conditions for tonight into Thursday. 2) A strong frontal system brings showers Thursday night into Friday morning and a second round of showers/isolated thunderstorms late Friday afternoon/evening. No significant impacts are anticipated at this time. 3) The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NW wind Friday night into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Cold front push offshore this evening. No showers are expected with the frontal passage. Cooler and drier air will advect into the region tonight on NW/N winds with a few gusts up to 25 mph possible. Lows will fall into the upper 40s inland and lower 50s closer to the coast. Seasonable and dry conditions are expected on Thursday with highs in the low to mid 60s. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A strong frontal system approaches Thursday night, with its associated warm front lifting north of the area Friday night. The trailing cold front will then move through the region Friday evening. The overall thinking has not changed with this system. Thermal forcing/warm advection quickly increase Thursday night, which will bring showers with the warm front passage into Friday morning. These showers will likely end mid to late morning with a lull in any activity. Rainfall amounts with this initial round of showers remain on the lighter side with average amounts a quarter inch or less. The region will then become warm sectored aiding in an slight increase in instability. Temperatures should be able to reach the 70s ahead of the cold front. Guidance is then signaling potential for a band of shallow convection, mainly in the form of showers, but a few embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. The only concern with this potential convection is from an isolated severe wind gust. Currently, SPC has much of the Day 3 marginal risk south of the area, where instability is expected to be higher. This line of convection will be fast moving, so any downpours will be short-lived. A few showers remain possible behind the front until around midnight as the upper trough lags to the west and continues to amplify. Much drier air returns for the second half of Friday night as the cold front moves offshore. Average rainfall amounts with the evening convection/lingering showers will be around a quarter inch although a few spots could be slightly higher locally. No rainfall impacts are expected at this time. .KEY MESSAGE 3... The main story Friday night into the weekend will be much colder and drier air. Strong, NW gusty winds will follow the cold front passage Friday night and continue through much of Saturday. Peak gusts 30-40 mph are expected, especially Friday night into the first half of Saturday. The pressure gradient begins to relax Saturday afternoon, so gusts should start to lower heading into the evening. One note is there has been a notable trend down in the low level wind field in the guidance over the last 24-36 hours. Winds at the top of the mixed layer are currently progged to peak around 35 kt Friday night into Saturday morning based on forecast sounding analysis. While cannot completely rule out the eventual need for a wind advisory (gusts greater than 45 mph but less than 58 mph), the probabilities seem to be decreasing based on latest trends. The other story will be the coldest air of the season so far. Temperatures will fall into the 40s areawide Friday night with the gusty NW flow. Highs on Saturday will struggle to rise above 50 degrees inland and only reach the lower 50s elsewhere. These highs are 10-15 degrees below normal for October 17. Winds should drop off Saturday night with a relaxed pressure gradient and high pressure building just to our west. Temperatures Saturday night could fall close to freezing with upper 30s to low 40s elsewhere. Some slight moderation is expected Sunday into Monday with temperatures potentially close to normal by Tuesday. High pressure remains in control so dry conditions will continue into early next week. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Behind a cold frontal passage, high pressure builds in from the NW through Thursday. VFR. Some MVFR cigs may approach the terminals from the west toward 6Z on Friday along with some showers after 6Z. Winds will gradually veer around to the NW, then NNW behind the cold frontal passage into the first part of tonight. Occasional gusts are possible during the first half of tonight under the strongest cold air advection. Winds will then veer more northerly overnight and then NE Thursday morning. Winds continue to veer to the E and SE late Thursday afternoon and into Thursday evening. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts the first half of tonight could be more frequent. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Thursday night: Showers move in late with MVFR or lower cond. Friday: Showers. IFR conditions likely early, improving to VFR in the afternoon for the NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals. Eastern terminals, especially KGON could stay sub-VFR. SW winds G20- 25kt. Friday night: Showers and possibly a tstm in the evening with mainly MVFR conditions, then VFR. Cold frontal passage followed by W-NW winds G25-35kt. Saturday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G25-35 kt, diminishing in the evening. Sunday and Monday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... A period of marginal SCA conditions (occasional gusts to 25 kt) likely tonight on the ocean behind the cold front passage tonight into Thu AM, elsewhere nearshore waters should see gusts 20 kt. The flow relaxes Thursday morning into afternoon with conditions below SCA levels through Thursday night. S flow increases Friday morning as a warm front lifts to the north. Winds will shift to the SW and become gusty 25-30 kt Friday afternoon ahead of a cold front. The cold front passage likely occurs Friday evening. Following its passage, winds may gust to around 35 kt on the ocean waters. Per collaboration with neighboring offices, have issued a Gale Watch Friday night through Saturday afternoon. The non ocean waters currently look more marginal, so have left them out for now. Winds should start to weaken late Saturday and gradually fall below SCA levels Saturday night into early Sunday. Conditions will then remain below SCA levels into early next week. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: October 14: KISP: 82/2026 Possible Record High Minimum Temperatures: October 14: KEWR: 67/1990 KBDR: 64/1990 KNYC: 68/1990 KLGA: 70/1990 KJFK: 67/1990 KISP: 66/1990 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for ANZ350-353-355-380-383-385. && $$ DISCUSSION...DS AVIATION...MW MARINE...DS  899 FXUS64 KLUB 150315 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1015 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1010 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Periods of heavy rain and flash flooding remain possible overnight over the Rolling Plains and SE TX Panhandle. - Blustery north winds and cooler temperatures arrive Thursday and continue through Friday. - The first freeze of the season is possible for areas on the Caprock early Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Thursday) Issued at 1010 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Current upper air analysis as of late Wednesday evening highlights a closed upper low positioned over central CO, with the shortwave disturbance responsible for earlier convection exiting to our northeast. Southwest flow aloft will persist over our area through the near term, and a secondary disturbance is visible on water vapor imagery near MAF at 03z which will lift northward towards our forecast area through the rest of tonight. The surface airmass remains cool and very humid, with southeasterly surface flow still in place ahead of a cold front still up in the northern TX Panhandle. Current expectation is for a lull in precip to continue through late this evening, with another round of mainly elevated storms developing near or after midnight as the aforementioned mid/upper level disturbance arrives and the SSW low level jet strengthens. Confidence is low in just how widespread this overnight storm activity will be, but the highest coverage is expected to be off the Caprock. These overnight storms are also expected to remain mostly sub-severe, although plentiful elevated instability may support a couple of instances of large hail. Of greater concern is the threat for additional flash flooding, especially over the Rolling Plains and SE TX Panhandle where a widespread 2 to 5 inches of rain fell earlier Wednesday. Have opted to extend the Flood Watch to remain in effect through Thursday morning for areas off the Caprock, given the saturated soils and risk of high rain rates and additional training storms overnight. PWATs remain exceptionally high for this time of year, so additional swaths of 1 to 2 inches of rain are certainly possible tonight off the Caprock if convection becomes widespread. A few heavy showers or storms are also possible along and west of I-27 overnight, but these should be less widespread. The cold front will make steady southward progress through Thursday morning, and is progged to be through most of the forecast area by mid-morning. The frontal passage should generally bring a gradual end to any lingering showers over much of the region, but we do expect scattered storms to continue along and ahead of the front itself through early afternoon. This could bring additional heavy rain to the southern Rolling Plains before precipitation finally ends by early evening. Otherwise, post-frontal north winds will be on the blustery side through much of the day, with much cooler temperatures expected as highs only reach into the mid 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1143 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 As the cold front sweeps out of the area Thursday night taking rain chances with it, crisp autumn weather takes over on blustery north winds and much drier air. Low stratus initially in the post-frontal layer will scour out on Friday, but skies will be partly to mostly cloudy under a stubborn plume of high clouds. Even without the high clouds, high temps look capped in the 50s which sets the stage for a chilly night as the high clouds clear and north winds go calm. Latest MOS and NBM probs are trending colder everywhere with a light freeze not out of the question for much of the Caprock, which is 1-2weeks ahead of schedule for many locales. High temps remain below normal through the weekend under weak upper ridging before slowly recovering next week ahead of the next slow-moving upper low that is favored to direct another plume of subtropical moisture our way. Rain chances gear up by mid week and continue thereafter with near normal temps. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 There is currently ongoing storms affecting KCDS which will continue through mid evening. There exists a low end chance of additional convection to move through all three terminals around midnight, but confidence is low. Activity looks to clear out by the morning. A cold front will bring winds around the NW by late morning tomorrow along with improving flight conditions. Combs && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ025-026-031-032-037- 038-043-044. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...26  140 FXUS65 KPIH 150322 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 922 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Potential for patchy dense fog for a few mornings now that we are clearing out cloud cover. - Late Week Ridge & Pleasant Next Weekend: High pressure ridging brings clearing skies and temperatures warming to seasonal norms by Thursday and Friday, setting up a much more pleasant weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1233 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Precipitation has finally come to an end across eastern Idaho. The area of low pressure that impacted us the last few days is over southeast Utah. This low continues to weaken and move eastward today with high pressure building in from the west over southeast Idaho. There are some lingering clouds across our eastern areas currently but most areas have cleared out. With high pressure, clear skies, and lingering moisture expect patchy fog tomorrow morning. Expect dry conditions through Monday with a gradual warming trend under high pressure. Winds will remain light through Sunday. For lower elevations, highs today will be in the 50s for most and we return to the low 60s for Friday afternoon. Expect mid 60s by Sunday and Monday. Overall, the models are showing a system starting to move into the area by early next Tuesday. Though, models continue to disagree on exact timing. Some models hold off the system until later next week. If models stay on the same track, expect winds to pick up by Monday afternoon. Currently models show good precipitation chances Tuesday and Wednesday. Currently, overall accumulation looks light to moderate, 0.10 to 0.25 for valleys and 0.25 to 0.5 for mountains. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 921 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Light winds with some high clouds drifting through for a few more hours. Models look very dry overnight so little chance for low stratus or fog. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1158 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 High pressure continues to build into East Idaho through the weekend. Dry conditions with a gradual warming trend are forecast. Afternoon highs look to increase back to the mid to lower to mid 60s by Sunday for most lower elevations. There is potential for the next system to arrive as early as Tuesday, bringing the next round of light rain and high elevation snow to East Idaho. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TW AVIATION...13 FIRE WEATHER...DMH  513 FXUS63 KOAX 150335 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1035 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing chances for showers and storms tonight, peaking at 90%-100% through the morning. - Strong northerly winds gusting 40 to 50mph move in Friday after midnight through the morning weakening Friday afternoon. - Frost continues to look likely late Friday night into Saturday morning with calm winds and clear skies. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1035 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Cloudy skies across the region this evening with a few showers over northeast Nebraska. These showers have developed along a weak boundary stretching all the way northwest toward Rapid City. These will continue to move north-northeast. The system we are watching more closely is a strong upper-level trough over Colorado. This will bring the showers from western Kansas northeast into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa overnight as the closed low weakens and gets absorbed into a stronger upper- level wave dropping south out of Alberta/Saskatchewan. Rainfall will continue across our area through Thursday morning ending through the afternoon as strengthening northerly winds bring in dry air. Thursday night into early Friday we are monitoring the potential for strong winds gusting 40 to 50 mph. As the wave moving out of Canada phases with the decaying system over the Northern Plains, we see the ridge over the West Coast try and advance. This leads to strengthening of the pressure gradient over the Great Plains between these two systems. A broad swath of strong northerly winds develops over the region including eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. NBM guidance shows around a 60% chance of winds gusting above 45 mph over northeast Nebraska Friday morning. Could start as early as 3am, but more likely toward 6AM through 11am. Winds weaken going into Friday afternoon as the trough shifts eastward and the gradient starts to relax, though gusty winds will likely continue until around 6pm. With winds becoming calm, clear skies, and a much cooler Canadian air mass in place, conditions will be ideal for strong radiational cooling overnight Friday into early Saturday. We expect temperatures to fall into the low 30s with a fairly widespread risk for frost. Only spots that might not get cool enough for frost may be in our more urban areas of Omaha, Council Bluffs, and Lincoln. As the ridge continues to trek eastward across the central CONUS over the weekend, we'll see southwesterly flow move back in Saturday trending temperatures warmer over the weekend into next week. Meanwhile, the upper-level pattern remains active. A weak disturbance moves through on Monday, though there won't be enough moisture for more than an increase in cloud cover through the day. A stronger trough deepens along the West Coast early next week. This system will strengthen southwest flow as it approaches midweek bringing temperatures back into the low-to- mid 70s for highs on Tuesday and Wednesday. This system brings our next chances for showers and storms Wednesday-Friday next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 We've seen improving conditions over the last several hours with cigs lifting to VFR. Rain moves in overnight bringing back IFR conditions with winds shifting to northerly. Rain continues into Thursday with IFR cigs and visibility 3-5SM through the morning. Winds start to increase during the afternoon as showers taper off and cigs start to break up and lift. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...McCoy  519 FXUS63 KUNR 150335 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 935 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Precipitation chances continue tonight across northeastern WY and western SD. - A Wind Advisory is in effect Thursday for northwestern South Dakota and the western South Dakota plains. Expect wind gusts up to 55 mph. - Widespread freezing temperatures expected Thursday night. - Above average temperatures return for the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 929 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Overall trend continues, with little change to the forecast through the weekend. Have tweaked PoPs tonight slightly based off CAMs and ongoing precipitation. Kept with the trend of toning down post-frontal winds for Thursday, as the NBM is still running pretty high. Hi-res models and MOS guidance continues to point to widespread gusts 45-55 mph for much of Thursday over the western SD plains. Wind Advisory remains in effect for 11 AM to 10 PM MDT. With much cooler temperatures behind the front. Freeze warning will be needed for Friday morning, however am holding off, given the current headlines in effect for Thursday. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday) Issued at 1229 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Upper low is centered near the Four Corners region with upper level ascent overspreading the region. Precipitation will increase across northeastern WY later this afternoon, spreading into southwestern SD into south-central SD after 06z tonight. Precipitation will be focused along the NE/SD border where 0.5-1.25" of rain is possible (probability >0.5" ~70-80%). Precipitation amounts taper off rapidly closer to I-90 with spotty, light amounts north of I-90. Rain ends Thursday morning as the system pushes east. Upper level trough pushes through the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest late Wednesday into Thursday. Surface low pressure drops out of Canada into the Upper Midwest with a cold front to sweep through the forecast area Thursday morning and afternoon. Gusty northwesterly winds expected behind the front with widespread 40 to 55 mph gusts, strongest across northwestern SD and portions of the western SD plains. A Wind Advisory is now in effect for these areas. Transient high wind gusts (> 60 mph) are possible, although coverage and frequency do not warrant High Wind headlines. Cold air advection and clearing skies will result in widespread freezing/sub-freezing temperatures Thursday night into Friday morning for the majority of the forecast area. Upper level ridging quickly builds over the western half of the country Friday into the weekend. Above average temperatures are forecast for the weekend into early next week with elevated fire weather conditions. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued At 500 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Precip has reached northwest SD and northeast WY spreading to southwestern SD later this evening. Scattered light rain will continue through the evening into tonight. Clouds may descend to MVFR levels during stronger showers. Conditions improve to VFR by Thursday morning. Strong northwest winds are expected across the SD plains Thursday, with gusts up to 50kts possible (35kts for WY). && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory from 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ to 11 PM MDT /midnight CDT/ Thursday for SDZ001-002-012>014-026-030>032-042-043- 046-047-049-072-073-077-078. WY...None. && $$ UPDATE...Dye DISCUSSION...SE AVIATION...Schweigert  739 FXUS63 KFSD 150343 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1043 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain expands tonight into early Thursday morning, tapering off from west to east Thursday afternoon. Rain totals increase from north to south from around a tenth of an inch near US Highway 14 to around 0.75" near US Highway 20. Isolated higher amounts possible along/south of US Highway 20. - Strong northwest wind gusts 30 to 45 mph behind the rain Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Gusts around 50 mph expected across south central South Dakota and possible (30- 40% chance) along the Buffalo Ridge. - Moderate to high (50% or greater) chances of frost for most of the area Friday night into Saturday morning, highest near and east of Interstate 29 with temperatures around or below 36 degrees F. Low to moderate (40% or less) chances of a freeze (temperatures near 32 degrees F) east of I-29. - Dry conditions and warmer temperatures return this weekend into early next week with highs back above normal. && .UPDATE... Issued at 922 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 No significant chances to the precipitation chances and coverage this evening into Thursday afternoon, with minor adjustments to the timing and coverage. Soundings show a bit less instability, so expect thunderstorms south of I-90 to be more isolated and infrequent than previous forecast. Hi-res models and other guidance this afternoon/evening has trended up with strong winds behind the rain and surface cold front moving east tomorrow afternoon and evening. Duration of gusts may continue through daybreak Friday as strong lower level CAA and stronger LLJ track east. Soundings show gusts of 30 to 50 mph mixing down, strongest west of the James River Valley and also along the higher elevations of the Buffalo Ridge. RAP/HRRR/GFS have the strongest winds - due to mixing a bit deeper and showing stronger winds at the top of the mixed layer than the NAM. Latest NBM reflects this increase, but still may be too low. Further adjustments may be needed as more of the 15.00z and later guidance comes in. Have issued a Wind Advisory for south central SD Thursday afternoon and night, where confidence is highest in gusts 45-50 mph at this time. Winds still look to taper down during the afternoon and evening. Looking ahead, ensemble probabilities for a frost (temperatures near and below 36 degrees F) and a freeze (temperatures near 32 degrees F) are increasing for Friday night into Saturday morning. Probability remains highest near/east of I-29. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Bufkit soundings indicate a persistent, shallow layer of low stratus clouds for the remainder of today. Clouds will likely limit our highs somewhat from what the NBM loaded, adjusted down slightly with a blend of NBM/CONSShort. Overnight lows will fall to the 40s. Meanwhile a southern stream upper trough located over the central Rockies will work east through the rest of today. Early this evening the trough and associated surface low will eject out onto the central plains and then accelerate northeast. As it does so scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will form over western Nebraska and Kansas. These will move northeast with the system and begin to impact south central South Dakota between roughly 6 and 8 pm CDT tonight. Scattered showers and storms should be in the Sioux Falls area roughly between 10 pm and midnight. As the surface low skirts just to the south of the CWA early Thursday morning showers and storms become more numerous, especially for areas along and south of I-90 and into northwest Iowa. Here a few stronger storms may produce more frequent lightning and isolated pockets of heavy rain. Severe weatheris not anticipated. Late Thursday morning into the afternoon a northern stream upper trough and surface low will move into central Canada. A cold front will form off of this low and will pass through the region from the northwest to the southeast. Behind the front storms end and clouds begin to break up Thursday afternoon and into the evening. Simultaneously the northern stream wave extends south, eventually phasing into the southern stream wave. This will result in an amplifying effect as the now deep amplitude upper trough tightens and narrows. Thursday evening the LLJ responds to this amplification by ramping quickly up to 50+ mph. These strong winds will mix down resulting in surface gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Occasional gusts as high as 45 mph are also possible over central South Dakota. Our western most counties may briefly approach Wind Advisory criteria late Thursday evening, but guidance is not in good agreement at this time. As such, have opted to wait on a wind headline at this time. Winds generally decrease as you move to the east but will remain gusty at 25-35 mph. The stronger winds gradually move east overnight into Friday morning. Additional wind concerns will be along the lee side of Buffalo Ridge where additional gusts of 40+ mph are possible. As far as rain totals are concerned the latest guidance has trended down a little. Areas along Highway 14 and north will only see a trace up to a tenth or two. As you move south toward I-90 totals increase to a couple tenths up to 0.30 inches. For areas along and south of I-90 guidance indicates rain totals ranging from 0.25 to 0.75 inches, with highest totals focused over northwest Iowa. Areas along and south of Highway 20 may see isolated pockets up to 1 inch. Breezy winds continue into early Friday afternoon before gradually tapering off Friday evening. Friday highs will be on the cool side of climatology thanks to strong CAA on northwesterly winds, in the low to mid 50s. Skies clear through the day and remain clear through the overnight. This will allow for maximum radiational cooling, resulting in low temperatures by sunrise Saturday in the low to mid 30s. Area of frost are possible, mainly west of the James River Valley. Clear skies continue for Saturday as winds turn southerly and usher in warmer air. Highs will climb into the low to upper 60s, warmest over central South Dakota. No concerns at this time for frost Saturday night into Sunday morning with lows in the 40s. Sunday will be another mostly clear day with continued WAA. Highs will climb into the mid to upper 60s with lows in the 40s. Dry conditions and highs in the 60s and low 70s continue into the first half of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1036 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Initial push of rain is moving northeast from between KHON/K9v9 to KFSD/KYKN and to just north of KSUX. Additional development is on-going across NE and is expected to fill in as it lifts north overnight. Very isolated storms remain possible closer to and south of the US Hwy 20 corridor through Thursday morning. Rain tapers off through the late morning into the afternoon hours from west to east. Lower VFR conditions and MVFR conditions into tonight will give way to MVFR and IFR conditions with rain and lower stratus. Conditions improve back to VFR toward Thursday afternoon through the rest of the period. Main focus after precipitation will be the increasing northwesterly winds Thursday afternoon and continuing into Friday morning. Gusts of 25 to 35 knots are expected by the mid to late afternoon hours, with gusts to 40 knots for south central SD. Could see some locally stronger gusts for the higher elevations of the Buffalo Ridge as well. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to midnight CDT Thursday night for SDZ050-052-057-058-063-064. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...SG DISCUSSION...AJP AVIATION...SG  767 FXUS63 KGRB 150345 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1045 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Forecast discussion for routine evening forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread rain arrives Thursday afternoon, and will continue at times through Friday. Expect most areas to see between 0.5 and 1" of total rainfall. - Northwest winds increase on Friday, with gusts between 35 and 45 mph possible. Gale force gusts expected across marine zones. - A widespread frost/freeze event is expected Friday night into early Saturday morning. - A warming trend and breezy southwest winds will bring daytime high temperatures back into the 60s late this weekend, with minimal rain chances through mid-week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Rain chances Thursday/Friday... Biggest change from previous forecast cycles centers around a noticeable jump in QPF amounts Thursday through Friday as models hone in on timing/evolution of the upper pattern. Signs still point toward phasing of northern and southern stream lows over the western Great Lakes Thursday night as a deepening surface low ejects from the central Plains. Jet energy ramps up during this time as moisture plume (near 99th percentile PWATs) interacts with mid-level FGEN in proximity to low pressure over southern Wisconsin. As such, probabilities for receiving one inch of QPF now stand at a widespread 30 to 60%. Thus expecting a soaking rainfall across most of northeast Wisconsin, which will be beneficial to areas across the north that have been in an extended period of drought. Stratiform rain then becomes more scattered in coverage on Friday, though wrap around moisture should keep at least light rain around for most of the day. Temperatures... Following a decent stretch of seasonable weather, cold FROPA and intrusion of arctic high will bring a brief spell of well below normal temperatures from the Plains to the Midwest on Friday. 850 mb temperatures plunge to around 2 to 5C below zero, which will translate to high temperatures reading in the mid 40s across the north to the mid 50s in the Fox Valley. Overnight lows will then fall into the mid 20s to low 30s inland of Lake Michigan, pointing toward a high confidence setup for frost/freeze under clearing skies and light winds. If trends hold, expect most areas to see a hard freeze that would effectively put an end to the growing season. Expect headlines to be forthcoming in the next day or so. Return flow then quickly sets up over the weekend, resulting in high temperatures rebounding into the 60s. Extended... High pressure looks to be the main driver of the synoptic pattern through at least the middle of next week, with no organized systems on the horizon. More active pattern looks to set up beyond then as upper flow re-amplifies, though details are few this far out. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 600 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Expect MVFR stratus to prevail throughout the TAF period due to low-level inversion and approaching surface low. Light stratiform rain should then be on track to arrive to the central Wisconsin sites by around 16 to 18Z Thursday, expanding to the rest of the terminals by around 20Z. Have included PROB30 groups to account for rain arrival, followed by prevailing SHRA. Some CAMs show lake effect showers developing near MTW within the next few hours, though confidence was too low to include in the TAF. Otherwise, winds will be sustained mainly out of the east/southeast at under 10 knots, shifting to northwesterly behind a cold front at the end of the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Gradient winds on the back edge of the departing surface low ramp up Thursday night into Friday morning, puttingus solidly within northwest flow and CAA regime. Deep daytime mixing will tap into 45 to 50 knot winds at 850 mb Friday afternoon, which will result in a brief window for gale force gusts over all marine zones through Friday evening. NBM probabilistic guidance continues to show a healthy signal (60 to 90%) for gusts exceeding 38 mph, highest along the Lake Michigan nearshore waters south of Kewaunee. Waves build 6 to 9 ft on the Lake and 3 to 6 ft on the Bay during this time, subsiding Friday night as winds shift to more westerly and the pressure gradient eases up. Gale Watches remain in effect. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Goodin AVIATION.......Goodin MARINE.........Goodin  960 FXUS63 KLSX 150346 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 1046 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected late tonight into Thursday morning. - Additional, potential shower and thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening could include a severe thunderstorm or two with isolated damaging winds and, conditionally, a brief tornado. - Behind a cold front Thursday night, temperatures will become much cooler and seasonable, with a warming trend early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Waves of widespread showers and thunderstorms have shifted much further southward into southern MO and AR this afternoon--most of which will remain to the south/southwest of the CWA through this evening aside from a few light showers or sprinkles. The effective front has also been pushed south of the CWA by this activity, leading to a much cooler day beneath considerable cloud cover, but high temperatures in the upper 60s and 70s F are still above average for mid-October. Not only that, but dewpoints are still running above the 90th climatological percentile, leading to an atypical mugginess. In response to the northeastward ejection of an upper-level trough currently over the Four Corners Region, the aforementioned front will advance northward tonight into Thursday as surface cyclogenesis ensues near the NM-TX border. A wing of associated low to mid-level isentropic ascent/WAA will drive a broad area of showers and thunderstorms that lifts northeastward through the CWA late tonight into Thursday morning. With thunderstorms anticipated to be quite progressive, flash flooding is unlikely but brief high rainfall rates are anticipated from near-record breaking PW around 2". The majority of morning showers and thunderstorms will continue to lift northward and end from south to north Thursday morning ahead of a surface cyclone tracking northeastward across MO through the day. There is variability in model guidance on how deep/mature the cyclone gets and how far the warm front lifts and warm sector expands across the CWA. These details along with the amount of lingering cloud cover will have ramifications on temperatures, instability, and more importantly how thunderstorms redevelop during the afternoon. With 40 to 50 kt of deep-layer wind shear, there is a concern for severe thunderstorms if enough instability becomes available. Upward trends in successive runs of the HREF and REFS SBCAPE is slowly increasing confidence in sufficient instability with the interquartile range now around 1000 to nearly 2000 J/kg in the warm sector. Timing, coverage, and location of thunderstorms is not clear, but the most favored location would be near east-central MO into IL where convergence is greater near the surface cyclone. Surface winds are projected to be veering in the warm sector, but backed winds near the warm front just ahead of the cyclone could increase low-level hodograph curvature enough for a brief tornado. Otherwise, isolated damaging winds are the greatest threat in a mixed mode of QLCS segments and supercells, with potential additional development along the trailing cold front southward through the evening. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 The cold front will progress eastward Thursday evening into overnight, but some showers could linger behind the front well into into the night along/east of I-44/I-55. The primary impact of the front will be the onset of strong low-level CAA that persists through the day Friday. In fact, Friday's calendar day high temperature will be at midnight with temperatures falling and then wavering inthe 40s and 50s F through the day Friday beneath insolation limited by extensive stratocumulus and even isolated showers in the cyclonic flow region beneath the main upper-level trough. Occasional northwesterly winds gusting 25 to 35 mph will further exacerbate the chill of these much cooler temperatures. The seasonable cool airmass will support high temperatures in the 50s and low-60s F on Saturday and low temperatures in the mid-30s to low-40s F Saturday morning and Sunday morning. Uncertainties in lingering cloud cover Friday night and the positioning of a surface anticyclone decrease confidence in how widespread frost will be those mornings, dependent on how optimal radiational cooling and BL decoupling are. It is worth noting that global ensemble model and NBM-based probabilities of low temperatures below 36 F, a reasonable proxy for initial frost formation, have been slowly increasing for low-lying and rural areas. Global model guidance is in good agreement that a warming trend back to above average will take place Sunday through early next week as the anticyclone migrates to the east and weak but persistent low- level WAA begins. In the southwesterly upper-level flow pattern, model guidance is having a more difficult time resolving a potential passing upper-level trough that only a small amount (<15 percent) of ensemble membership has producing light showers in minimal moisture return. Therefore, dry conditions are more than likely to prevail through the weekend and early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1042 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Low stratus will expand overnight as a warm front retreats northward. Chances of showers and a few thunderstorms also accompanies this boundary. Visibilites may briefly drop to IFR thresholds. Conditions should improve after the warm front moves north. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible along the trailing cold front as it moves through during the evening hours, but coverage may be isolated-scattered. Therefore, did not add to the TAFs at this time. Behind the cold front, look for a return of low MVFR stratus and a wind shift to the northwest. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Pfahler LONG TERM...Pfahler AVIATION...Gosselin