105 FXUS63 KDTX 150411 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1211 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures closer to normal and drier today, followed by additional rainfall late Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning. - A strong cold front delivers gusty winds and much chillier conditions Friday, with a few showers in spots. - Turing drier through the weekend with slightly warmer readings by Sunday. && .AVIATION... High pressure tracks across the northern Great Lakes tonight, causing winds to veer from northeast to east by daybreak. This will draw the stratus plume over Ontario into SE Michigan overnight, reinforcing low VFR to MVFR restrictions for most of the TAF period. Meanwhile, low pressure organizes over the Plains before lifting northeast toward SE Michigan Thursday evening. The elevated warm front will be responsible for lowering ceilings as moisture gets trapped under a sinking inversion. Lowest ceilings/vsbys are expected at the end of the TAF period as the low moves through, which will also be associated with increasing coverage of rain showers. A brief period of low level wind shear is possible as well as a strong low level jet surges atop the stable near-surface layer. D21/DTW Convection...No thunderstorms before 22Z Thursday, low chance after 22z. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High late tonight-Thursday. * Low for thunder after 22Z Thursday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 336 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 DISCUSSION... Sprawling area of high pressure centered over the Dakotas is funneling cold air southward into the Great Lakes behind last nights cold front. The combination of cold air advection lake clouds and warm frontal clouds had lead to a very clouds day across the state. Temps have been slow to rise much into the 60s thus far so dropped forecast highs a few degrees. Lows tonight will fall into the 40s but will be tempered by the blanket of clouds so chances of 30s are slim. Next chance of rain comes Thursday as a pair of strong systems, cutoff low from the 4 corners region and a deepening trough dropping out of Canada, phase over the Midwest before passing through the Great Lakes as an energetic positively tilted trough. Models are a little slower bringing the precip into SE MI, so pushed pops back til after noon. The center of the surface low was supposed to pass northeast through lower MI Thursday night, but as we get deeper into the window of CAMs, they are suggesting that there will be a secondary low farther east along the occluded front, staying just SE of MI, possible over Toledo. This doesn't do much for the expansive area of precipitation that will lift into the region along the warm conveyor belt, but it does bring convection into question, as this leading low looks to keep the instability gradient south of the area. CAPE values are coming in only around 100 J/kg or less in most model solutions. Will keep a mention of thunder in for now until we can more clearly define the area of convection, or placement of the surface warm front. QPF could range from a third to a half inch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Cold front will pass through early Friday pushing the brunt of the moisture out of the area but cold advection will initiate lake processes introducing additional moisture to any lingering wrap around moisture around the exiting low. In addition, cold advection will steepen lapse rates in the afternoon to around 10kft which will help scattered showers to develop. The deep mixing depths will also lead to a gusty day with winds solidly into the mid 20 knot range through the mixed layer throughout the day. Question is later in the evening as the upper level trough axis cross the area bringing a period of higher winds aloft into the 30-35 knot range. These winds could be mixed down briefly before we attempt to decouple so could see gusts increase around dusk for a few hours close to 40 mph. Friday night will be colder as thermal trough at 850mb dips down to between zero to -5C with skies clearing as high pressure builds back in. Friday highs only into the 50s will help lows drop into the 30s with many locations across the northern CWA possibly seeing temps below freezing. Longwave ridge over the western conus and trough over the east will both be positively tilted heading through the weekend which will help delay the advancing thermal ridge back into the region. Highs Saturday will hold int he 50s before beginning to moderate Sunday back into the low 60s. Looks like ridging will hold over the region much of next week providing another lengthy stretch of dry weather. MARINE... Moderate northwest wind continues this evening before weakening slightly and veering to easterly overnight as high pressure passes across the northern Great Lakes. An elevated wave field is forecast to clip the Lake Huron nearshore waters between Port Austin and Port Sanilac, and a Small Craft Advisory has been issued through tonight. Lighter wind takes on a southeast direction on Thursday ahead of a stronger low developing over the Midwest. This low will bring active marine weather Thursday night through Friday as it strengthens while tracking from southern Lake Michigan to the Ontario peninsula. A 40 to 50 kt southwesterly low-level jet targets western Lake Erie Thursday night. Profiles show strong low- level stability during this window, which will hold the bulk of the momentum aloft. Will hold off on gale headlines for this brief feature as wind gusts are forecast to max at 25 to 30 kt. Numerous to widespread showers will accompany the system Thursday night. A strong cold front will pass north to south across the region on Friday as the low departs to the east. Increasing instability and favorable fetch offer relatively high confidence to see northerly gusts to gale force on Lake Huron Friday afternoon and Friday night. Latest model data has trended slightly weaker with the wind field, so did cap the forecast gusts in the 35 to 40 kt range. A Gale Watch remains in effect for all of Lake Huron. Will continue to monitor the need to expand the watch into Lake St. Clair and western Lake Erie, but confidence remains too low at this time. Gusty northwest wind backs to west-southwest by Saturday as high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Gale Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for LHZ441- 442. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....MV DISCUSSION...DRK MARINE.......TF You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  232 FXUS64 KBRO 150413 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1113 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1100 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - A cold front Friday will bring strong winds, cooler temperatures, and coastal hazards Friday and Saturday. - A Gale Watch is in effect for 1 PM Friday to 1 PM Saturday. - Low to moderate rain chances Friday along a passing cold front, with greatest chances (40-50%) along the immediate coast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 More warm, dry conditions are expected today as subsidence promotes drier air across deep S TX. This will suppress rain chances and keep heat indices in the 90s to low 100s. A cold front moving through the region Friday will limit Friday highs to the 80s. The forecast has been trending drier given the relatively dry air ahead of the front, with most places expected to see low rain chances (15-35%) Friday and little to no measurable rain. The greatest rain chances (40-50%) are along the immediate coast, with rainfall totals through Sunday of an inch or less expected. Strong northerly winds will develop behind the front, with gusts of 30-35 mph possible by Friday afternoon. A secondary surge of high pressure behind the front will bring potential for stronger winds overnight Friday, with gusts of 45-50+ mph possible. Wind Advisories will likely be needed along the immediate coast late Friday into Saturday, and are possible as far inland as Brooks and Hidalgo counties. There is a 10-20% chance of wind gusts of 55mph or greater east of US-281 during this period. Be sure to secure any decorations or loose objects outdoors before Friday. Much drier air filtering in behind the front may lead to elevated fire weather concerns Friday afternoon and Saturday. The strongest winds should begin diminishing before the driest conditions arrive Saturday afternoon, when RH values could fall to 20-40%. However, strong winds overnight Friday combined with RH values in the 30-40% range could require a Rangeland Fire Discussion for counties along and east of US-281. Strong northerly winds over the Gulf will build seas and increase the risk of life-threatening rip currents, high surf, and coastal flooding along the lower TX coast. Cooler air behind the front will bring highs in the 70s Saturday and overnight lows in the 50s and 60s. Temperatures begin rebounding Sunday with highs in the 80s, gradually climbing into the 90s by midweek. Rain chances may also begin to increase again midweek. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 611 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the cycle. Gusty southeasterly winds around 25 kts will continue just past sunset, decreasing to 5-10 kts overnight. Few to broken clouds between 025-050 will continue this evening, with occasional BKN layers passing over a field. Gusty winds to 20 kts may return at the tail end of the 06Z TAF cycle Thursday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1100 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Moderate southeasterly flow and moderate seas 3-5 ft will continue today. Winds shift northerly Friday morning as a cold front passes, increasing winds to 20 knots by late morning with gusts of 30-35 knots. Seas increase to 9-12 feet late Friday, with gustier winds 40 kts or greater possible overnight. A Gale Watch is in effect for 1 PM Friday to 1 PM Saturday. There are increased chances (40-70%) of showers and thunderstorms along the front Friday, with low chances in the offshore waters lingering into Saturday. Gale conditions should lessen Saturday afternoon, with Advisory conditions lasting into Saturday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 92 76 90 74 / 10 0 010 HARLINGEN 94 73 93 71 / 10 0 0 10 MCALLEN 97 77 96 74 / 10 10 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 98 76 95 72 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 79 85 78 / 10 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 75 88 74 / 10 0 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...69-HK LONG TERM....69-HK AVIATION...69-HK  354 FXUS65 KRIW 150416 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1016 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool with rain, mainly east of the Divide, as the west improves with clearing northwest to southeast overnight. - Mountain snow lingers on Casper Mountain with rain shower activity persisting east of the Divide, mainly from eastern Sweetwater to Natrona Counties. - Clearing skies and diminished rain shower activity by early to mid Thursday morning giving way to widespread freezing temperatures for Friday morning. - Warming and dry trend for Friday and over the weekend into early next week ahead of the next system by Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1200 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Mid-day IR shows improving cloud cover to the northwest portions of the CWA, expanding south, west of the Divide. Cooler cloud tops across the south and central parts of the state, where the ample rain shower activity continues on the backside of the low. Radar shows the Wind River Basin continuing to fill in from the east and southeast, stretching to the south and east across eastern Sweetwater to much of Natrona Counties. This will slowly diminish into the evening hours as it regresses southeast with the low itself. It become more progressive with the newest Hi- Res data, suggesting rain shower activity to be out of the CWA by sunrise, with a few drizzly portions of southeastern Natrona with upslope of Casper Mountain. Very minor snow possible in these higher elevations of Natrona, but any activity for the Winds will end early this afternoon if not already. Beyond that, expect clearing skies through the afternoon and evening. This will give way to hard freezing temperatures for Friday morning through 9AM, giving this the last of the freezing headlines until Spring. Ridging then builds in quite strong Friday and over the weekend, seeing widespread 60s east of the Divide in the afternoon, to even low 70s for eastern counties of Johnson and Natrona through Monday. Next up will be another GOA low pushing down into the Pacific northwest, deepening and elongating with its progression south and east with increased divergence aloft. The question, as it was with this last system, is how progressive it becomes staying more closed off or an open wave. Stay tuned for details in the coming days, but enjoy the warming trend for the weekend as it will be great for those visiting the parks for one last hoorah before winter starts knocking for good. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 The main driver in the forecast this morning remains me of one of the better movies of the mid 1990s, Leaving Las Vegas. It is because the upper level low that has brought the clouds and showers of the past few days that was centered near Las Vegas is now leaving and will be making a turn toward to the northeast, crossing Colorado through tonight before moving into the central Plains states for the end of the week. And it will continue be the main driver in the weather for about the next 24 to 36 hours. Satellite imagery shows some more enhanced cloud tops heading toward Wyoming, with showers across much of the southern two thirds of the area. There remains some uncertainty this morning in regards to how widespread the showers will be today though. Some ensemble members, as well as the operational GFS, keep the low further south, keeping more of the area mainly dry, with showers confined largely south and west of a Buffalo to Riverton to Green River line. Other members, as well as the operational European model, bring the low closer and keep showers across most of the southern two thirds of the area through this evening. There is some agreement in showers starting to end from northwest to southeast starting after midnight tonight, with all showers finally over by noon on Thursday. Now we turn to precipitation amounts. Far northwestern Wyoming should be done with showers. As for an additional quarter of an inch starting at 6 am this morning, the 1 out of 2 chance of an additional quarter inch or more runs roughly south and east of a Kaycee to east of Riverton to Rock Springs line. However, precipitation has been underperforming in most locations. The heaviest amounts, with around a 2 out of 5 chance of three quarter inches of rain are mainly in Natrona, southeastern Fremont and southern Sweetwater Counties. And finally, we talk about snow. Amounts over the passes have been rather small so far. Snow levels will reach the lowest point early this morning. With 700 millibar temperatures generally dropping to between minus 2 to minus 3, which would lower snow levels to around 7000 to 7500 feet. This would keep the lower elevations largely rain, although there could be some wet snowflakes from time to time, especially if precipitation is heavier. As for an additional inch starting at 6 am this morning, it mainly across the Wind River Range, the Green and Rattlesnake Ranges and also Casper Mountain where there is a greater than 1 in 2 chance of 1 inch or greater. When we bump it up to 3 inches, it is again mainly above 8500 feet. However, the NBM ensemble has a couple of interesting things. It still has a greater than 2 out of 5 chance of 3 inches over the higher elevations of South Pass. I am giving some thought to possibly extending the Winter Weather Advisory another 6 hours or so, when snow levels should rise another 1000 feet or so. This will likely be a gametime decision based on road conditions when we get closer to expiration, which is at 6 am. Other locations that could see over 3 inches include Casper Mountain, but all guidance keeps the chance of over 6 inches to less than 1 out of 5. The other location is the Green and Rattlesnake Range, but this would be the higher elevations with no impacts. Snow should really taper off after midnight with just about all areas done by Thursday morning. And you think we are done, but wait, there's more! And that will be the strong wind tonight. The upper level will initiate some lee cyclogenesis over Colorado and tighten the pressure gradient as the low deepens. This will be mainly after midnight tonight and into Thursday morning, although it will linger longer over Johnson County. Most areas East of the Divide as well as eastern Sweetwater County have at least a 3 out of 5 chance of wind gusts past 30 mph. The areas prone to the cold advection / north flow pattern, like Johnson County and portions of the Big Horn Basin have at least a 1 in 2 chance of gusts past 40 mph. High wind looks unlikely, as 700 millibar wind looks to top out at around 40 knots, and I would likely to see 50 knots for that. Wind should decrease Thursday afternoon as the low moves into the Plains states. And this brings us to the last main concern, a possibly killing freeze. Yes, most locations are a few weeks past the average first freeze, so we have been living on borrowed time. But many areas will have a good chance Thursday night as the wind decreases and the sky the sky clears as the low moves away. Thursday night there is a very good chance of that killing freeze. Just about the entire area has at least a 2 out of 3 chance of temperatures of 28 degrees or below. Freeze warnings will likely be needed, but we will let future shifts issue these as we still have rain and snow to deal with. Following that, it looks like some pleasant fall weather should return for several days as ridging builds back into the area. This means a mainly clear sky and temperatures near to somewhat above normal from Friday through the weekend and into early nextweek. The next chance for decent precipitation looks to hold off until the middle of next week when the next Pacific system approaches the area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1007 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Showers continue across portions of central and southern Wyoming late this evening. This activity will move southeast out of the area through the night with precipitation ending by sunrise Thursday. KCPR and KRKS will be most likely to see lingering MVFR to IFR conditions tonight, and most notably at KCPR where low clouds are expected to persist through Thursday morning. There is also some fog potential, especially at KJAC though confidence is low. A breezy north wind may help mix down warmer and drier air to help mitigate this. Other terminals east of the Divide may also see lower clouds Thursday morning. While KCPR may hold on to a broken VFR cloud deck, remaining terminals are expected to see mostly clear skies by early Thursday afternoon. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for WYZ005-006-010-011-016>020-028>030. && $$ UPDATE...Lowe DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Myers  370 FXUS65 KSLC 150417 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1017 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few showers will linger over portions of eastern Utah tonight before dry conditions develop areawide Thursday through the weekend with a gradual warming trend in temperatures. - Confidence remains relatively high that a more active pattern will return next week, though uncertainty is higher than usual in the timing or details of any systems that may move through. && .DISCUSSION...The slow moving low pressure system that has been impacting Utah and southwest Wyoming the past few days has moved into Colorado this evening. Most areas remain dry behind it, but some showers persist over eastern Utah on the back side of the system. As the low continues east overnight, the remaining precipitation will diminish. Temperatures stayed on the cold side today with maxes running 10-15F above seasonal normals. with a bit of a Rex Block pattern developing over the Pacific coast over the next few days, conditions will stay dry through the weekend with highs warming to near seasonal normals for Saturday and Sunday. Most guidance indicates the Rex Block breaking by Saturday as a Pacific Northwest trough moves it out of the way before tracking along the US/Canada border. The absence of the ridge would open up the West to a more active storm track next week. However, there remains considerable spread as to the timing and track of these systems. The most popular solution brings a Pacific system across the area Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing primarily rain due to the warm nature of the system. A minority of guidance, however, (including the latest deterministic ECMWF) keep the low off the California coast through midweek, allowing dry conditions to persist longer. Models tend to struggle with closed low features, so hopefully more confidence in the details comes in future runs. && .AVIATION, Issued 551 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026... KSLC...Low clouds with CIGS generally 6kft or less persist this evening before gradually clearing overnight. Mostly clear skies develop by early Thursday morning, prevailing through the remainder of the TAF period. Northwesterly winds continue at the terminal through around 06z before shifting southeasterly thereafter. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Low clouds persist across the northern and eastern portions of the airspace this evening, but are expected to gradually clear overnight. Some low clouds may persist across southwest Wyoming through Thursday morning, but expect mostly clear skies across the airspace by late Thursday morning. Generally light winds are expected for most terminals overnight. Gusty northeasterly winds develop late Thursday morning across southern and eastern Utah, with widespread gusts 25+ kts through the afternoon. Southwest Wyoming will see elevated easterly winds develop Thursday morning and continue through the day. && .FIRE WEATHER, Issued 1249 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026... Low pressure continues to meander across southeastern UT resulting in one more day of widespread rainfall and high elevation snowfall for areas east of I-15. High pressure builds in Thursday, bringing a drying and slight warming trend to all of Utah into and through the weekend. Mixing will remain limited given weak winds, inversion development, and October sun angle through the next few days. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Traphagan AVIATION...Whitlam FIRE WEATHER...Worster For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  540 FXUS64 KTSA 150424 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1124 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1124 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - A Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday afternoon for much of northeast Oklahoma. - Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur through Thursday evening with periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall, especially this evening and overnight. - A few strong to severe storms will be possible tonight with the most likely area near and along I-40. - A cold front will bring much cooler and pleasant weather by Friday and into the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 1124 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms will move from their current position along I-35 just to the west of the forecast area, across eastern Oklahoma and into western Arkansas from late this evening into the pre-dawn hours on Thursday. The bowed portion of the line remains severe, with a northeasterly movement that should take it into portions of east central and eventually far northeast Oklahoma, roughly along the northern edge of the DCAPE axis. This should support a continued risk for locally damaging winds as far east as the Arkansas border. Radar estimates around an inch of rainfall in an hour, which should continue as it moves across the forecast area and support a continued threat for localized flooding. The Flood Watch has been expanded another tier of counties southward, largely due to a combination of the expectations of where the current activity will go and also a strip of locally higher totals from the rains earlier today. Storm development should continue into the daylight hours Thursday due to the low level jet, with some decrease in coverage and intensity late morning into early afternoon as it wanes. Additional storms are expected to develop as the cold front begins to move through the area during the afternoon, with a gradual southward shift with time. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1124 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Cold frontal storms will be ongoing across areas south of I-44 early Thursday evening, with the storm axis continuing to push southward with the front. Dry conditions will likely arrive areawide by daybreak Friday. Much drier dew points and colder temperatures will follow the front, along with a substantial increase in northerly winds. Peak gusts Thursday night and into Friday will likely be in the 30 to 40 mph range. This does not appear to be a slam dunk Wind Advisory case but would not be surprised to see a couple of observations with gusts above 40 mph. Parts of far southeast Oklahoma that do not receive much rainfall from the current event may see a brief uptick in the potential for fire weather concerns on Friday given the gusty winds and much lower dew points that will be in place. Surface high pressure will move into the area Friday night and into Saturday, in part, leading to the lowest overnight temperatures of the season so far for both Friday night and Saturday night. Locations near the Kansas border will flirt with freezing temperatures both mornings with both winds and humidities supporting possible frost. Keep an eye on this potential in the next couple of days if you have sensitive vegetation outdoors. South winds make a return Sunday, signalling the start of a warmup that is expected to continue into at least the early to middle part of next week. Temperatures climb to near normal Monday afternoon and above Tuesday afternoon. The dry conditions that begin Friday will extend through at least Wednesday, with low chances arriving late next week to western parts of the area due to another system approaching from the west. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 There is a lull in the action currently, but the next round of showers and storms is taking shape across southwest OK. This area of showers and storms will spread northeast tonight. Storms that move into northeast Oklahoma may have gusty winds with them, so this was added to the TEMPO groups. Expect conditions to drop to MVFR or IFR as the storms blow through, generally near and for a few hours after 06Z. Uncertainty with storm impacts across SE OK and NW AR yields less confidence at those sites so PROB30s were used instead. Expect another break aft 15Z and until the front approaches in the afternoon. Included wind shift at the NE OK sites with a few showers possible. Farther to the south and east, included PROB30s for showers or storms ahead of the front at the tail end of the forecast. MVFR cigs may prevail for a time Thursday morning at many sites before returning to VFR Thursday afternoon. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 67 77 48 59 / 90 80 20 0 FSM 71 86 53 64 / 30 50 80 0 MLC 68 80 51 62 / 60 80 80 0 BVO 61 75 43 58 / 100 80 0 0 FYV 65 80 44 59 / 50 70 80 0 BYV 68 81 46 58 / 50 70 70 0 MKO 67 78 49 60 / 80 80 60 0 MIO 65 76 45 57 / 90 70 20 0 F10 67 77 48 60 / 90 80 50 0 HHW 68 88 55 64 / 20 10 40 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for OKZ055>067-154-254- 354. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...30  661 FXUS65 KGJT 150428 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1028 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Valley rain and mountain snow will continue through tonight, with snow favoring the central and northern Colorado mountains. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect. - Cool temperatures can be expected over the next several days with sub freezing nighttime temperatures forecast across northwest Colorado and other mountain valley areas on Thursday night. A Freeze Watch is in effect Thursday night through Friday morning. - Drier weather is expected Thursday through most of the weekend, with a gradual warming trend to near-normal temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1027 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUE: Current satellite imagery indicates that the center of the low pressure that has brought widespread mountain snow and valley rain is currently located over the Central Divide mountains, continuing to track northeastward. Moisture wrapping around the backside of this low is keeping valley rain and higher elevation snow showers going across much of central- and north-western Colorado this evening. This has resulted in sloppy road conditions over mountain passes, so be cautious and prepared for winter driving if out travelling tonight. The low is expected to reach the eastern Colorado Plains by daybreak Thursday, with the plume of wrap-around moisture finally moving east of the Divide. An additional 1-3 inches of snow will be possible across the central and northern Divide ranges, with a trace to an inch for mainly the northern San Juans. Some higher snow amounts are possible along the Uncompahgre River Gorge south of Ouray, as this area tends to fare better than guidance indicates under these types of northerly flow, wrap-around moisture events. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for elevations above 9500 feet in the central and northern Divide mountains through 6AM Thursday morning. DRYING OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND: As the low tracks east into the plains, energy in the base of the parent trough splits off and begins to retrograde into Southern California. Between these two features, high pressure noses in from the west, bringing drier, quieter weather to eastern Utah and western Colorado. By Friday, the retrograded area of low pressure remains stationary across SoCal, with high pressure to the north, creating a Rex Block for the West, while deep troughing dominates the eastern CONUS. This will keep conditions stagnant for several days, with the next chance for active weather across eastern Utah and western Colorado not expected until early to mid-next week. Models remain in poor agreement over most details regarding this next system, so stay tuned. In the meantime, clear skies and a much drier airmass are expected for the Western Slope. Temperatures will start out 5-10 degrees below normal, but gradually warm to near normal by the weekend. Clearing skies and this much colder airmass in place will promote effective radiational cooling Thursday night into Friday morning, especially across northwest Colorado and into some of the higher elevation valleys in the central-western and southwestern Colorado. A Freeze Watch is in effect for these areas from late Thursday night through late Friday morning. Widespread temperatures of 25-30F are expected, with values dropping as low as 20F in favored spots. If you have sensitive vegetation or outdoor plumbing, now is a good time to take the necessary precautions to protect them. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 541 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue into the overnight period along with low ceilings and visibility. Snow is occurring at higher elevation sites including KASE, KEGE, KTEX, and KHDN. Fog may develop overnight especially in the mountain valleys but confidence in exact timing and location is low. Expect below ILS breakpoints at mountain TAF sites through the evening hours with MVRF/IFR possible in heavier showers. Conditions will begin to improve Thursday morning into the afternoon. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for COZ001-002-005-008-023. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Thursday for COZ004-009- 010-012-013. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BGB/TGJT AVIATION...RJ/TGJT  837 FXUS64 KHUN 150433 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1133 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 931 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Above normal temperatures are forecast Thursday with more Fall-like weather expected by the weekend. - Minor to Moderate (Level 2/4) heat impacts may be observed Thursday across portions of the Tennessee Valley. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight and Thursday) Issued at 931 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Tonight, an approaching cold front will shift southeastward toward the Tennessee Valley. Despite showers/thunderstorms occurring ahead of the front to the north of us, CAMs have us remaining dry with storms dissipating as the front continues southeastward toward the area. Therefore, keeping the forecast dry with a very low chance of fog overnight in portions of north central and northeast AL. If any fog forms, it should dissipate around sunrise. Thursday, the upper level ridging and subsequent above normal temperatures continue as highs rise into the mid 80s to lower 90s. We will once again be watching to see if we are able to break high temperatures records: 88 degrees in HSV (1947) and 91 degrees in MSL (2015). Dry, sunny conditions should persist through the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Saturday) Issued at 931 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 The aforementioned cold front will shift southeastward into the area Friday ahead of an upper level trough swinging through the southeast U.S. While previous forecasts remain dry, CAMs have recently trended toward bringing low chances of rainfall along the frontal boundary Friday afternoon. A 10-20% chance of rain was added with this package update for portions of N AL and southern middle TN. No severe weather is anticipated due to lack of instability. Accompanying the front, a 50 kt LLJ will mix down and allow gusty winds up to 20-30 mph throughout the late afternoon into Saturday. Be sure to secure any loose, outdoor items (including holiday decorations) by Friday afternoon. Saturday, post-frontal conditions will remain breezy (as mentioned) but much cooler. Highs are forecast to remain in the 60s, which is 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year. An even colder night is in store for us Saturday night into Sunday- read more on this in the long term below. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 931 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 High pressure at the surface by Sat night should be situated over the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. This cold anticyclone bringing a N-NE flow across the greater Tennessee Valley will bring the coldest air of the season thus far. Night time lows by Sun morning should range from the upper 30s our southern Middle Tennessee counties to the low/mid 40s near large bodies of water. The models have been showing mainly 38 degrees over Lincoln and Moore counties. Under clear skies and light winds, we cannot rule out temperatures falling another couple of degrees or so, which would bring a frost risk. This is something we will monitor. The start of a new week should feature sunny skies with high temperatures a bit warmer than they were Sat, rising into the mid and upper 60s. Light winds in the morning should become E-SE in the afternoon. Not as cold Sun night with lows in the low/mid 40s. A slow warming trend is expected for the start of the new work week. Under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, highs Mon should rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s, with lows Mon night mid 40s to around 50. The moderation in temperatures continues into the midweek. Under partly cloudy skies, highs on Tue should get close to seasonable norms into the low/mid 70s, and into the mid 70s to around 80 Wed. Lows Tue night again should range from the mid40s to around 50. Dry weather should continue into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period at both terminals. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HC SHORT TERM....HC LONG TERM....RSB AVIATION...RAD  928 FXUS64 KSHV 150437 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1137 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1137 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Above average warmth will continue Thursday, with highs in the lower 90s and mostly dry weather prevailing. - A powerful cold front will cross the ArkLaTex Friday, bringing significantly cooler temperatures and much drier air. - Very low humidity and gusty winds will produce elevated fire weather conditions Friday and likely into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1137 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Southerly flow around a subtropical high will keep unseasonably warm temperatures in the lower 90s for the Ark-La-Tx Thursday afternoon. At the same time, the closed low over the Four Corners will merge back with the greater trough and propagate eastward toward the Great Lakes. A strong cold front associated with this trough is still expected to push through the region during the day on Friday, resulting in high temperatures as low as the upper 60s for some. Areas of Central LA could still see temperatures in the 80s before the front sweeps through in the afternoon. In addition to the sharp dip in temperatures, strong winds and dry air are expected to follow this front. Winds across the region could easily gust above 30 mph on Friday with RH's dipping into the 20-30 percent range. Even with the cooler temperatures, the dry air and gusty winds will compound on an already dire drought situation in terms of fire weather. Fuels are extremely dry with the lack of consistent wetting rainfall and are prone to catching fire from any sort of spark. The conditions on Friday will make these sparking fires spread much more quickly and be harder to contain. Most counties and parishes remain under burn bans due to the ongoing drought, but increased caution must be taken to prevent sparking wildfires and report any that begin quickly to proper authorities. As such, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the entire region from Friday morning through the evening hours. This watch merely outlines the extremely favorable weather conditions for fire spreading that will likely be in place on Friday and may be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning with a future forecast. The cooler air behind the front Friday is expected to linger through the day on Saturday before another upper-level ridge sets up another warming trend. Temperatures in the lower 70s on Sunday will quickly return to the low to mid 80s by midweek with little relief in sight. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 650 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 VFR conditions will continue this evening through much of the overnight hours, with a deep lyr of dry air expected to continue mixing N across E TX and into SW AR later this evening/tonight. Thus, the residual low AC cigs will diminish/shift N away from the E TX terminals this evening, and eventually TXK/ELD after 06Z Thursday. Should see IFR cigs and the potential for patchy FG develop after 09Z across Deep E TX, which should drift N across E TX/possibly portions of NW LA by/after daybreak, before quickly mixing out by mid-morning. A weak cu field should develop by late morning/midday across E TX/Wrn LA, and may spread N into the remainder of NE TX through the afternoon, but will have to wait for the return of low MVFR/IFR cigs by mid to late evening Thursday across NE TX/adjacent SW AR, along and behind a strong cold front that will enter the region. SSE winds 3-5kts tonight will become SSW 5-9kts after 15Z. /15/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 A powerful cold front will cross area fire districts on Friday, with unseasonably cooler temperatures to follow. This front is not expected to produce any significant rainfall.The post-frontal airmass will also be very dry, dropping relative humidity values into the upper 20 to 30 percent range. North-northwest winds behind the front will be very breezy, maintaining sustained speeds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Together with critically dry fuels, these conditions merit a Fire Weather Watch for all area fire districts beginning Friday morning. /26/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 66 90 66 76 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 64 93 64 83 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 65 91 55 69 / 10 0 10 0 TXK 67 92 62 71 / 10 0 0 0 ELD 64 93 62 77 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 68 89 62 70 / 10 0 10 0 GGG 66 90 61 73 / 10 0 10 0 LFK 65 90 65 78 / 0 0 20 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073. LA...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022. OK...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for OKZ077. TX...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ DISCUSSION...57 AVIATION...15  980 FXUS65 KSLC 150438 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1038 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1017 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026... - A few showers will linger over portions of eastern Utah tonight before dry conditions develop areawide Thursday through the weekend with a gradual warming trend in temperatures. - Confidence remains relatively high that a more active pattern will return next week, though uncertainty is higher than usual in the timing or details of any systems that may move through. && .DISCUSSION, Issued 1017 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026... The slow moving low pressure system that has been impacting Utah and southwest Wyoming the past few days has moved into Colorado this evening. Most areas remain dry behind it, but some showers persist over eastern Utah on the back side of the system. As the low continues east overnight, the remaining precipitation will diminish. Temperatures stayed on the cold side today with maxes running 10-15F above seasonal normals. with a bit of a Rex Block pattern developing over the Pacific coast over the next few days, conditions will stay dry through the weekend with highs warming to near seasonal normals for Saturday and Sunday. Most guidance indicates the Rex Block breaking by Saturday as a Pacific Northwest trough moves it out of the way before tracking along the US/Canada border. The absence of the ridge would open up the West to a more active storm track next week. However, there remains considerable spread as to the timing and track of these systems. The most popular solution brings a Pacific system across the area Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing primarily rain due to the warm nature of the system. A minority of guidance, however, (including the latest deterministic ECMWF) keep the low off the California coast through midweek, allowing dry conditions to persist longer. Models tend to struggle with closed low features, so hopefully more confidence in the details comes in future runs. && .AVIATION... KSLC...VFR conditions prevail through the remainder of the TAF period as low clouds continue to erode across the Wasatch overnight. Expect light southeasterly winds through Thursday morning, switching northwesterly after roughly 18z. REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Low clouds continue to erode across the high terrain this evening, with skies clearing across most of the airspace overnight excluding some persistent low clouds across southwest Wyoming into early Thursday morning. Generally light winds are expected for most terminals overnight. Gusty northeasterly winds develop late Thursday morning across southern and eastern Utah, with widespread gusts 25+ kts through the afternoon. Southwest Wyoming will see elevated easterly winds develop Thursday morning and continue through the day. && .FIRE WEATHER, Issued 1249 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026... Low pressure continues to meander across southeastern UT resulting in one more day of widespread rainfall and high elevation snowfall for areas east of I-15. High pressure builds in Thursday, bringing a drying and slight warming trend to all of Utah into and through the weekend. Mixing will remain limited given weak winds, inversion development, and October sun angle through the next few days. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Traphagan AVIATION...Whitlam FIRE WEATHER...Worster HYDROLOGY... For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  138 FXUS64 KOUN 150444 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1144 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1140 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Severe thunderstorms possible through the afternoon/evening/night primarily along I-44. - Multiple rounds of heavy rain expected between now and Thursday morning with an increasing flash flood risk. - Colder and drier airmass arrives late Thursday, with weather becoming cool and pleasant by the weekend. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 An area of very heavy rainfall has occurred across portions of western into central Oklahoma last night and this morning. Rainfall in this band has been between 4 and 11 inches of rain. This has resulted in multiple flash flood warnings as well as several rivers going into flood. Combination of height falls, embedded shortwaves moving through the area and warm advection will continue to produce a rather large area of rain and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Although a bit of a lull may occur mid-afternoon, another round of heavy rainfall will develop to our southwest and move into the area late today and overnight. With record PWATs, rainfall rates will continue to very high at least through tonight across much of the Flood Watch. May need to reconfigure the watch based on trends (remove northwest and add to the southeast). Will also keep an eye on location of effective surface boundary for this afternoon as it will be the focus for stronger convective initiation. There currently is a outflow boundary pushing south through western north Texas and southern Oklahoma. If this becomes the primary boundary, the severe threat will be confined to those areas. However, with the large upper low off to our northwest, if a break in the heavier precip does occur the boundary could lift back northward adding area to the potential for severe weather. Strong winds gusts will be the main hazard along with the flooding rainfall, however the risk of hail and even a tornado or two is not out of the question, especially as winds increase this evening as llj redevelops. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Thursday morning the upper low will begin to open up and move north and east across the Central Plains. Meanwhile, at least through the morning hours, we will still be within the warm advection band from southwest Texas into southwest, central and north-central Oklahoma. This could add another inch or two of rainfall to those areas. By Thursday afternoon, as the upper low continue to push off to the northeast, a cold front will surge south and southeast across Oklahoma. Additional convective development is expected along this boundary across south central and southeast Oklahoma Thursday afternoon. A few strong, to low end severe storms appear possible. The front will also create a rather wide range of temperatures from northwest to southeast during the day. Temperatures will struggle to get out of the 60s in the northwest to near 90 degrees in the far southeast. Rain will likely continue Thursday night across the southeast with skies perhaps clearing across the northwest. If this occurs temperatures in the Northwest will drop into the lower 40s by Friday morning with mid/upper 40s and 50s elsewhere. More sun is expected Friday, but in the wake of this strong cold front temperatures will only climb into the upper 50s and low/mid 60s. Far northwest Oklahoma will drop to near freezing Saturday morning, so a frost is definitely a possibility and will need to continue to monitor for a freeze. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Winds will try to rebound to the south by the afternoon on Saturday, so highs will likely be a few degrees warmer than on Friday, especially with sunny skies expected. Dry conditions and a warming trend into the 70s and 80s are expected through Tuesday as increasing mid-level heights overspreads the southern Plains. Bunker && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Numerous rounds of thunderstorms is expected across the area through the overnight and into Thursday afternoon. A cold front will push through the area Thursday, which should help to push thunderstorm potential southward through the day. With any stronger thunderstorm, IFR to locally LIFR conditions may be possible. Despite thunderstorms, widespread MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to continue through most of the period. A cold front will shift the winds from from southerly to northerly tomorrow, with gusty winds in the front wake. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 80 67 78 48 / 90 100 100 20 Hobart OK 82 65 78 48 / 90 100 80 10 Wichita Falls TX 93 69 84 53 / 50 80 100 70 Gage OK 66 58 72 42 / 90 90 20 0 Ponca City OK 77 64 78 45 / 100 100 90 10 Durant OK 93 69 89 55 / 60 30 20 50 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for OKZ006>008-011>031- 033>042-044>046-050. TX...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for TXZ083>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...13  284 FXUS64 KMOB 150445 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1145 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Record or near record highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected Thursday with mid to upper 80s for Friday. With many areas still without power and recovery efforts from Hurricane Isaias ongoing, these temperatures could lead to an increased risk for heat related illnesses. - Strong northerly winds develop over the marine area Friday night, becoming easterly and lasting into the weekend. Gale force wind gusts are possible, with conditions posing a hazard to small craft. - A High Risk of dangerous rip currents return to area beaches from Saturday night into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 There is the potential for patchy fog development across much of the area overnight, and it's possible that dense fog will develop across portions of southeast Mississippi and extreme southwest Alabama. Will continue to monitor at this point. A large upper trof progresses across the eastern states late in the week, with an associated surface low bringing a cold front through the forecast area Friday afternoon into the evening hours. Some isolated showers will be possible near the coast of the western Florida panhandle on Friday, but otherwise dry conditions are expected through Tuesday. Record or near record temperatures continue for Thursday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, then highs on Friday will be moderated slightly with highs mostly in the mid to upper 80s. Lows Thursday night range from the lower 60s inland to the mid/upper 60s closer to the coast. Here's the current forecast for highs on Thursday along with the record values: Mobile 89, Record 89 Pensacola 88, Record 89 Much cooler air flows into the area in the wake of the cold front. Highs on Saturday range from the upper 60s well inland to the lower 70s elsewhere, and highs on Sunday will be similar. Lows Saturday night and Sunday night range from the upper 40s well inland to the mid 50s at the coast. A gradual warming trend follows for early next week, with highs on Tuesday reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s, and lows Tuesday night will range from the lower 50s well inland to near 60 at the coast. A low risk of rip currents is expected through Friday then trends to a high risk for Saturday night through Monday. /29 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Patchy fog development is possible overnight over much of the area, with the potential of dense fog developing and increasing in coverage across portions of southeast Mississippi and extreme southwest Alabama. Fog that develops overnight will dissipate Thursday morning leaving VFR conditions. Calm or light and variable winds overnight transition to a southeasterly flow around 5 knots on Thursday. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 A light, diurnally variable, the rest of the week becomes a strong to very strong easterly Friday night behind a cold front moving across the forecast area Friday. A surface ridge building south along the Appalachians later in the weekend into the coming week will shift winds to easterly, whilst remaining strong, especially over open Gulf waters. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 62 89 65 86 / 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 66 88 68 84 / 0 0 0 10 Destin 69 85 69 82 / 0 0 0 20 Evergreen 61 90 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 60 90 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 60 89 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 61 89 63 86 / 0 0 0 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  387 FXUS63 KLBF 150449 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1149 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers are expected to continue through the night into tomorrow afternoon across the region. At least wetting rainfall is expected across the region. - Potential for frost increases both Friday and Saturday morning across the region. Temperatures on Friday morning are expected to reach subfreezing across western Nebraska, with a Freeze Watch in effect. - Temperatures are expected to remain on the cool side through the end of the week. A return to more seasonal temperatures is expected this weekend, with slightly warmer temperatures next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 The advertised upper level low is centered over western Colorado this afternoon, with a plume of Pacific moisture tracking across the region. With the jet maximum located over western Kansas, seeing mostly divergence aloft across most of western and north central Nebraska, which will continue to support rain showers. Showers and thunderstorms are lifting across southern Nebraska this afternoon, and should continue to do so through the evening. The main surface low is expected to remain just sough of the region, however, given the upper level support, more widespread rain chances are expected overnight. With the available moisture, most areas across western and north central Nebraska should see at least wetting rainfall. Interestingly, even at this short range, there is still disagreement in the models on how much impact the dry slot this evening will play into rainfall totals. The HRRR in particular remains quite unperturbed, giving most areas half an inch to an inch of precipitation. However, the latest NAM and NAM Nest guidance fall more in line with ensemble guidance, suggesting lower precipitation amounts. In fact, the NAM based solutions mostly cap out at or around half an inch for most areas. Ensemble guidance continues to show very high probabilities, greater than 90 percent, for most of the region to exceed one tenth of an inch. However, the latest run of the European ensembles have decreased probabilities on exceeding half an inch. Even the latest WPC guidance has backed off a bit on rainfall totals across the region. While chances for rain remain quite high tonight and into tomorrow afternoon, may be seeing slightly lower amounts than previously forecast. In general, do believe that amounts between a quarter and half inch are likely for most areas, though there may be some potential for locally higher amounts. Building some confidence in locally higher amounts is the consistency in guidance to provide a region of wrap around precipitation from the southern low along with forcing from a cold front on a northern low. This should provide one more push of rain across the region tomorrow, as both lows track to the east. Throughout the day tomorrow, something else to keep in mind will be the potential for strong, northerly wind gusts throughout the afternoon into the overnight hours. As the surface low tracks east, high pressure from the northern Plains begins to sink to the south, which will increase the pressure gradient across the region. As this occurs, expect strong northerly winds across the region, with strongest winds around 25 to 30 mph, gusting up to 45 mph. With these conditions in play, highs across the region are only expected to reach the low to mid 50s, which is a bit cooler than usual for mid October (around 10 degrees cooler than average). Overnight Thursday into early Friday morning, cold air continues to spill across the region following the cold front. Skies are expected to clear across western Nebraska in the evening, which should help with radiational cooling effects overnight. With cold air advection behind the front, and 850 mb temperatures around -3 degC, expecting that we will see temperatures plummeting around the freezing mark for most of the region, but especially areas along and west of Highway 61. Expecting most areas west of Highway 83 to at least reach 32 briefly Friday morning, but areas west of Highway 61 are more likely to see lows at or below 28 degrees. With this in mind, after collaborating with neighboring offices went ahead and issued a Freeze Watch for overnight Thursday into Friday morning west of Highway 61, where hard freeze conditions are possible. Will also continue to monitor the potential for frost across more of the area. However, confidence in where frost will spread is a still medium to low, especially concerning how far east frost may develop. Will continue to closely monitor forecast trends to see if a Frost Advisory will also be needed Friday morning, as well as if an upgrade to a Freeze Warning will be warranted. For what its worth, this is fairly late for our first potential frost of the season, as we typically see our first frosts around September 21, with our first freeze around September 29. In fact, we typically have even seen our first hard freeze (28 degrees or colder) by this time of year, as the median date for the first hard freeze is October 10. In addition to the frost and freeze potential, the gusty northerly winds will still be present overnight lasting until late Friday morning. This will at the very least bring cold wind chills across the entire region. Expecting wind chills Friday morning will at least be in the lower 20s across the entire region, with potential for wind chills in the teens across the Sandhills and Panhandle. After the chilly start Friday morning, expecting mostly clear skies throughout the day, with highs eventually building into the low to mid 50s. Skies remain clear Friday night into Saturday morning, which will again allow for cold temperatures across the region. Lows again are expected to fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s, with warmest lows hovering right around the freezing mark. With these overnight lows, there is potential for the rest of the region to see frost Saturday morning, so will continue to monitor if a Frost Advisory is needed. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 A chilly start to Saturday is expected, as lows hover around the freezing mark, with potential for frost across most of the region. Southerly winds across the region will keep things feeling on the cold side, with wind chills in the upper teens to lower 20s across the region. However, by the afternoon, upper level ridging begins to track across the region, which should usher in some more seasonal high temperatures through the weekend. Typical highs for the weekend are around 63 to 65 degrees. The latest forecast brings highs around the mid 60s to lower 70s, so right around to slightly warmer than typical. This will also usher in slightly warmer overnight lows, as well, with lows Sunday and Monday morning expected to be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. As the northern jet remains north of the region early next week, expect that our temperatures will return to slightly above seasonal average, with highs returning to the low to mid 70s. Also expect to see lows climbing back into the 40s, potentially the lower 50s in spots. This should also keep a fairly dry and quiet weather pattern through at least mid week. However, long range guidance does suggest the potential for another upper level trough to arrive sometime around mid week, which may bring additional rain chances mid to late week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1149 PMCDT Wed Oct 14 2026 For the KLBF terminal: Ceilings will fluctuate between IFR and MVFR levels initially, before settling down around 500 FT AGL overnight. Ceilings will gradually lift Thursday morning, becoming MVFR late morning. Ceilings will then become VFR Thursday afternoon. Winds will become northerly Thursday morning with wind gusts of 30 to 35 KTS Thursday afternoon into the early evening hours. For the KVTN terminal: Ceilings will continue to fall overnight, becoming IFR overnight. Ceilings will be lowest around 12z Thursday around 800 FT AGL, improving to MVFR late morning. Skies will then become partly cloudy Thursday afternoon with ceilings around 25000 FT AGL. Skies will then cloud up Thursday evening with ceilings around 5000 FT AGL. Northerly winds will become gusty Thursday afternoon with gusts to around 35 KTS. Winds will diminish to 25 to 30 KTS Thursday evening. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for NEZ004-022-023-035-056>058-069-094. && $$ SHORT TERM...Richie LONG TERM...Richie AVIATION...Buttler  404 FXUS64 KBMX 150449 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1149 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, CLIMATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1125 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026 - Record Highs: Temperatures will be well above normal this week, with medium to high chances of record high temperatures. - Fall Weather: A cold front will move through the region Friday into Saturday, bringing cooler temperatures and breezy conditions to the area for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Thursday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1125 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026 This evening we have a surface boundary extending from the TX Panhandle, to AR, and NEWD to MD. The W portions of this boundary will get pushed NWD as a warm front as we head into the day Thursday as a cold front develops on the lee of the Rockies and the associated low moves NEWD. By Friday morning this low is expected to have progressed to the Great Lakes and combined with another system pushing SEWD out of Central Canada. During Friday this system should get enough of a favorable push from the upper flow to move through C AL and finally allow fall to make its arrival in the area. There may be just enough moisture with the help of frontal forcing to allow for a few isolated showers Friday afternoon. No TS or heavy rain is anticipated. However, before that we still have Thu where we could see a few max temp records in jeopardy (see climate section), and Fri where max temps will still be above normal. Breezy and gusty at times NRLY winds should be felt Fri afternoon, that night and on into Saturday with tight surface pressure gradients behind the front. Cool readings with lows in the 40s for many on Fri night and for all Sat/Sun nights with highs generally in the 60s over the weekend. Our airmass should begin to moderate for next week as our flow becomes more ERLY, but overall still dry. 08 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026 VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with surface ridging in place and light/variable to near calm winds. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and dry conditions are expected to continue through the end of the week with MinRHs dropping into the low 30% range for many locations. A dry cold front will move through the area Friday into Saturday leading to gusty winds, little to no rainfall, and much drier and cooler conditions behind the front. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1125 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026 Record High Temperatures: Thu Oct. 15: KBHM: 90/1897 KEET: 92/2025 KANB: 87/1975 KTCL: 91/1962 KMGM: 92/1881 Fri Oct. 16: KBHM: 90/1897 KEET: 90/2025 KANB: 87/1965 KTCL: 90/1962 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 61 89 60 84 / 0 0 0 20 Anniston 61 89 62 84 / 0 0 0 20 Birmingham 64 89 64 84 / 0 0 0 20 Tuscaloosa 61 92 62 85 / 0 0 0 10 Calera 61 89 62 84 / 0 0 0 20 Auburn 63 88 63 84 / 0 0 0 20 Montgomery 61 89 63 86 / 0 0 0 20 Troy 61 88 62 85 / 0 0 0 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...08  539 FXUS64 KMEG 150453 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1153 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - A strong cold front will pass through the Midsouth Friday, bringing much cooler temperatures. Saturday will bring the coolest daytime temperatures, with highs in the 60s, about 10 degrees below normal for mid-October. Sunday morning will bring the coolest temperatures of the weekend, with lows ranging from the upper 30s over parts of West Tennessee, to the lower 40s over the remainder of the Midsouth. - Friday's cold front will bring elevated wildfire danger, particularly to areas along and west of Interstate 55. Strong winds and low relative humidity will moderate by sundown Friday evening. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Today (Thursday) will again bring summer-like high temperatures to the Midsouth, but with lower humidity. Late Wednesday afternoon surface observations showed mid 40s dewpoints over much of central MS around Jackson, while lower to mid 70s dewpoints prevailed over most of the Midsouth. JAN upper sounding from 12Z Wednesday showed an average 925-850mb dewpoint near 0C. This layer won't be quite as dry over the Midsouth today, but we'll nonetheless see surface dewpoints about 10 degrees cooler than Wednesday. The main weather event remains a strong cold frontal passage Friday morning, aided by a deep northern branch longwave trough rotating through the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. 18Z GFS depicted stratospheric vorticity incorporated into this trough, with the dynamic tropospheric pressure level down to 600mb over the Ohio River Valley. Quite a dynamic system and a sign of the changing seasons. As the upper trough lifts off the Mid-Atlantic seaboard Saturday, a progressive upper level ridge will build through the southern and central Great Plains, with weakening northwest flow over the Midsouth. This ridge will expand through much of the southeast US on Sunday, as it deamplifies. The net result for the Midsouth will be diminishing surface winds by Sunday morning, allowing the dry air to cool to the upper 30s and lower 40s toward sunrise. The dry airmass will modify from Sunday onward, with highs reaching normal by Tuesday. Medium range global models depict the upper level ridge amplifying over the latter half of the week, downstream of a closed low moving onshore into southern California. There are some disparity between the ECMWF and GEFS ensemble means with respect to timing of the upstream Pacific low. This timing may be sorted out in the subsequent runs, but for now the overall trend of warmer temps late next week appears to be a good bet. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through much of the TAF period. A few sites mainly over NW TN have begun to fog with reduced visibilities, but fog is not anticipated at TAF sites due to dry air. Southwest winds will pick up at around 8-12 kts by mid- morning. A few occasional gusts up to 25 kts are expected in the afternoon at JBR ahead of a cold front. Heading into the early morning hours Friday, this front will begin to shift winds more west/northwest with gusts up to 20 kts impacting MEM. MVFR conditions also begin to creep into the airspace early Friday. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Dry conditions will continue into next week with little to no wetting rainfall. . Relative humidity will drop below 30 percent today, mainly south of Interstate 40. Light winds will prevail areawide this afternoon. A strong cold front will pass through the region Friday morning. Post-frontal relative humidity will drop below 40 percent Friday afternoon, accompanied by strong northwest winds. Despite much cooler temperatures, minimum relative humidity will again drop below 40 percent Saturday afternoon. Winds will not be as quite strong as on Friday, but will gust in the morning and early afternoon. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT Thursday for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>051. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...AEH  596 FXUS65 KVEF 150455 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 955 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Gusty north-northwesterly winds expected Thursday and Friday with gust speeds between 40 and 50 mph. * Precipitation chances return to the region Tuesday and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday. Gusty north winds generally between 20 and 30 mph continue today as a closed low weakens into an open wave and lifts eastward out of the area. On Thursday, energy left behind from the aforementioned open wave will combine with a vort lobe riding along the leftover northwesterly flow aloft and will close off over southeastern California. This will bring with it a 65-75 kt jet and corresponding surface north-northeasterly wind gusts between 40 and 50 mph. This trajectory of winds will result in easterly downslope winds, which could bring occasional gusts between 50 and 60 mph to locations nestled in valleys along the eastern flanks of area mountains including Interstate 40 east of the Hualapai Mountains in southern Mohave County and Highway 160 in Pahrump. As a result, the Wind Advisory in place for the Colorado River Valley, southern Clark County, and eastern San Bernardino County from 8 AM Thursday through 11 AM Friday has been expanded to include Death Valley National Park, the Clark County Mountains, far southern Nye County, and most of Mohave County. Confidence continues to increase that the closed low over southern California will usher moisture from Hurricane Simon into the region over the weekend. Ensemble means indicate that PWATs will increase to around 0.75 inches across the Mojave Desert and will stick around into early next week. That said, without instability, this moisture is unlikely to bring precipitation... However, a longwave trough is progged to swing into central California early next week, which will provide the aforementioned instability needed to bring precipitation chances back to the forecast area. Right now, there are 30 to 40 percent chances of precipitation on Tuesday and Wednesday areawide with snow levels between 8000 and 9000 feet. Stay tuned as this forecast develops and confidence increases through the week. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light and variable winds will shift to the north-northwest late tonight, with gusty northerly winds to 20-25KT returning by mid- morning. Winds then veer to the northeast by late morning, with gusts increasing increasing to 25-30KT, persisting through sunset. Gusts gradually diminish through the evening, with northerly winds around 10-12KT continuing thereafter through the end of the forecast period. VFR conditions and clear skies prevail. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Overnight, winds will remain northerly with some variability and speeds between 5-10KT. Thursday morning, gusty northerly to northeasterly winds resume areawide, with gusts to 25-30KT common thereafter, with the strongest winds gusting to 30-40KT expected along the Lower Colorado River Valley from KIFP to KEED. Northeasterly gusts will hold off across the western Mojave Desert/KDAG until early afternoon, with gusts there closer to 20KT. Gusty conditions persist thereafter, though gusts begin to diminish slowly after sunset. KBIH in the northern Owens Valley is the outlier, where light northerly winds will back to the southwest and to the southeast by late afternoon, when gusty up- alley winds to 20-25KT are expected to develop. VFR conditions and clear skies prevail. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Soulat AVIATION...Phillipson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  663 FXUS63 KDDC 150457 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1157 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight, then be confined to central Kansas tomorrow morning - Lows in the 30s are expected Saturday morning with some areas reaching freezing or lower across far western Kansas Saturday morning && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight as another disturbance is expected to move through the area. Being on the cool side of this system, no severe weather is expected. Precipitation comes to an end from west to east after midnight and be confined to central Kansas Thursday morning. The current NBM model run depicts a half of an inch to three quarters of an inch of precipitation by tomorrow afternoon. Mostly cloudy skies are expected through tomorrow morning with clearing in the afternoon. The reminder of the forecast looks dry as upper level ridging builds across the western United States with high pressure being the dominate feature at the surface. Winds will be from the north through Friday, shifting to the south this weekend into the beginning of next week. As for temperatures, expect highs to only reach into the 50s this afternoon due to the copious amounts of cloudiness and drizzle/rain. Highs tomorrow look to range from the upper 50s across our northern zones to upper 60s along the KS/OK border. If clouds remain longer than expected, highs may be lower than expected. Friday looks to be the coldest day of the forecast with highs in the 50s. We then rebound into the 60s Saturday with 70s returning Sunday into the first part of next week. Lows will dip into the mid 40s to upper 50s tonight with upper 30s tomorrow night. Lows around 30 degrees to low 30s are then expected Saturday morning. A freeze watch may be needed across far western Kansas in the future to account for freezing temperatures. Lows then rebound into the 40s by the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1157 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 LIFR conditions will begin the TAF period at all sites given low CIGs and occasional spotty dense fog. CIGs will remain in LIFR through 15-17z Thursday, improving to IFR 17-19z, and MVFR 19-22z. Fog will dissipate completely through 13-17z this morning. Conditions will gradually improve from southwest to northeast. Spotty rain and isolated thunderstorms will also continue through 15z this morning. Skies clear after 00z Friday. Regarding wind, expect breezy northwest winds 15-25 knots with gusts 30-35 knots. Winds will increase to those levels beginning 15z this morning until a weakening trend after 00z Friday. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hovorka_42 AVIATION...Bennett  619 FXUS64 KBMX 150455 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1155 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1153 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026 - Record Highs: Temperatures will be well above normal this week, with medium to high chances of record high temperatures. - Fall Weather: A cold front will move through the region Friday into Saturday, bringing cooler temperatures and breezy conditions to the area for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Thursday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1153 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026 This evening we have a surface boundary extending from the TX Panhandle, to AR, and NEWD to MD. The W portions of this boundary will get pushed NWD as a warm front as we head into the day Thursday as a cold front develops on the lee of the Rockies and the associated low moves NEWD. By Friday morning this low is expected to have progressed to the Great Lakes and combined with another system pushing SEWD out of Central Canada. During Friday this system should get enough of a favorable push from the upper flow to move through C AL and finally allow fall to make its arrival in the area. There may be just enough moisture with the help of frontal forcing to allow for a few isolated showers Friday afternoon. No TS or heavy rain is anticipated. However, before that we still have Thu where we could see a few max temp records in jeopardy (see climate section), and Fri where max temps will still be above normal. Breezy and gusty at times NRLY winds should be felt Fri afternoon, that night and on into Saturday with tight surface pressure gradients behind the front. Cool readings with lows in the 40s for many on Fri night and for all Sat/Sun nights with highs generally in the 60s over the weekend. Our airmass should begin to moderate for next week as our flow becomes more ERLY, but overall still dry. 08 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026 VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with surface ridging in place and light/variable to near calm winds. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and generally dry conditions are expected to continue through the end of the week with MinRHs dropping into the low 30% range for many locations. A cold front will move through the area Friday into Saturday leading to gusty winds, minimal rainfall, and much drier and cooler conditions behind the front. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1125 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026 Record High Temperatures: Thu Oct. 15: KBHM: 90/1897 KEET: 92/2025 KANB: 87/1975 KTCL: 91/1962 KMGM: 92/1881 Fri Oct. 16: KBHM: 90/1897 KEET: 90/2025 KANB: 87/1965 KTCL: 90/1962 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 61 89 60 84 / 0 0 0 20 Anniston 61 89 62 84 / 0 0 0 20 Birmingham 64 89 64 84 / 0 0 0 20 Tuscaloosa 61 92 62 85 / 0 0 0 10 Calera 61 89 62 84 / 0 0 0 20 Auburn 63 88 63 84 / 0 0 0 20 Montgomery 61 89 63 86 / 0 0 0 20 Troy 61 88 62 85 / 0 0 0 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...08  673 FXUS64 KEPZ 150457 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1057 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1013 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - A strong backdoor cold front is set to arrive Thursday night, bringing gusty winds and well below normal temperatures into the weekend. - High Wind Warning is in effect for far west Texas and portions of southern New Mexico for Thursday night into Friday. Wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible along mountain west slopes. - Scattered rain showers starting Monday and continuing through next Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1013 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Very strong winds and much cooler temperatures are coming to Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas Thursday night and Friday. A low pressure circulation in Colorado will exit the Rockies to the east Thursday morning. A significant push of cooler air from Canada will fill in behind the system and move further south. A very strong 1041 mb surface high is driving this air mass southward along the Front Range into New Mexico. The cold front boundary will reach the local area by late Thursday afternoon, reaching the El Paso and Las Cruces metro areas Thursday evening. There is tight pressure gradient packing and a low level jet with this front that will result in strong northeasterly to easterly winds spreading across the area Thursday evening through Friday afternoon. Sustained wind speeds of 30 to 40 mph with wind gusts exceeding 60 mph are expected begin Thursday evening and lasting into Friday for Otero, El Paso, and Hudspeth Counties. A High wind warning has been issued for the previously mentioned counties along with Hidalgo and southern Grant counties where wind speeds will reach warning criteria on Friday. The remainder of the forecast area will experience strong winds reaching wind advisory levels with gusts to 50 mph, but are expected to remain below wind warning levels. Blowing dust is likely with the strong winds, especially in El Paso and Hudspeth counties along with southern portions of Dona Ana, Luna counties beginning late Thursday evening. Blowing dust is also expected along the playas in Hidalgo county on Friday. Much cooler temperatures are also expected Friday into Saturday with day time high temperatures struggling to reach the lower 60s in the lowlands. Many areas will see temperatures as much as 12 to 16 degrees below normal Friday and Saturday. Freezing temperatures are expected for the mountains Friday and Saturday mornings. Chances for precipitation through Saturday remain near zero. A potential moisture surge into the area, hinted at by previous model forecasts, has shifted south and is not expected to be a factor in our local weather pattern through the weekend. The long term outlook for Sunday and much of next week looks wetter and warmer. A weakening low pressure system off of the Baja Peninsula will move into the desert southwest, pulling subtropical moisture into the region as early as Sunday afternoon. There will be a slight chance of showers for the bootheel on Sunday afternoon with a greater chance of showers across the region starting Monday afternoon through next Thursday. The main driver for the precip will be a deep low pressure system dropping down along the west coast before moving inland and through the region on Thursday. There will be a chance of rain Monday afternoon through next Thursday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1013 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 VFR conditions expected through Thursday afternoon. Aside from morning FEW060-080, ceilings will be unlimited at all four TAF sites. Some low end gusty winds from the west will be present for a few hours in the afternoon before dropping off and shifting more northerly in the late afternoon. After 00Z a strong cold front will arrive from the northeast tomorrow evening. Winds will shift to the northeast and become very strong. Winds will be at least 08030G40KT with higher gusts to 50 knots possible. Some blowing dust is likely at KELP beginning 03Z Thursday night through 18Z Friday. Low level wind shear will also occur after 00Z Thursday night, especially over KELP. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 931 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Limited fire weather concerns today and tomorrow. Min RHs today will be above 20%, and for Thursday, lowland Min RHs will be in the mid-to-upper teens and up to 30% in the mountains. Low end gusty winds from the west likely by this afternoon and the north on Thursday. A strong backdoor cold front (moving east to west) will move into the region Thursday night. Winds will shift to the east in the evening hours and increase drastically. The strongest winds will be west of the area mountains as well as Otero, Hudspeth, and El Paso Counties. Sustained wind speeds of 25-35 mph likely for most of the region, with high-end wind gusts reaching 60 mph in the mountains. The strong winds will continue into Friday before diminishing slightly on Saturday. Precipitation chances will be low on Friday and Saturday, favoring out east in West Texas as well as the area mountains. The high mountains may even see a wintry mix early Saturday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 57 80 54 63 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 56 80 47 56 / 0 0 10 0 Las Cruces 51 75 49 64 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 50 77 48 67 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 38 58 27 40 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 47 72 48 65 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 42 71 45 60 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 49 75 50 65 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 46 76 51 64 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 59 79 55 63 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 57 81 52 62 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 62 88 54 65 / 0 0 10 0 Loma Linda 53 75 45 54 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 59 85 55 65 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 54 78 53 62 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 55 78 51 67 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 48 76 48 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 49 77 49 69 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 53 79 53 64 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 51 76 49 64 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 43 68 34 49 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 42 70 32 51 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 43 66 33 49 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 38 66 36 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 47 71 46 63 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 48 74 46 66 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 35 72 39 59 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 43 73 45 62 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 44 78 50 70 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 40 74 45 66 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 45 71 46 61 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 49 77 53 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 48 76 50 62 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 51 77 50 61 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 47 73 48 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Warning from 6 PM Thursday to noon MDT Friday for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Western El Paso County. NM...Wind Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to midnight MDT Friday night for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley- Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Upper Gila River Valley. High Wind Warning from 9 PM Thursday to midnight MDT Friday night for Lowlands of the Bootheel-Uplands of the Bootheel. High Wind Warning from 6 PM Thursday to noon MDT Friday for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Southeast Tularosa Basin-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet. Wind Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to noon MDT Friday for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Northern Dona Ana County-Sierra County Lakes-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands. && $$ FORECASTER...04-Lundeen  724 FXUS63 KUNR 150458 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1058 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Precipitation chances continue tonight across northeastern WY and western SD. - A Wind Advisory is in effect Thursday for northwestern South Dakota and the western South Dakota plains. Expect wind gusts up to 55 mph. - Widespread freezing temperatures expected Thursday night. - Above average temperatures return for the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 929 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Overall trend continues, with little change to the forecast through the weekend. Have tweaked PoPs tonight slightly based off CAMs and ongoing precipitation. Kept with the trend of toning down post-frontal winds for Thursday, as the NBM is still running pretty high. Hi-res models and MOS guidance continues to point to widespread gusts 45-55 mph for much of Thursday over the western SD plains. Wind Advisory remains in effect for 11 AM to 10 PM MDT. With much cooler temperatures behind the front. Freeze warning will be needed for Friday morning, however am holding off, given the current headlines in effect for Thursday. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday) Issued at 1229 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Upper low is centered near the Four Corners region with upper level ascent overspreading the region. Precipitation will increase across northeastern WY later this afternoon, spreading into southwestern SD into south-central SD after 06z tonight. Precipitation will be focused along the NE/SD border where 0.5-1.25" of rain is possible (probability >0.5" ~70-80%). Precipitation amounts taper off rapidly closer to I-90 with spotty, light amounts north of I-90. Rain ends Thursday morning as the system pushes east. Upper level trough pushes through the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest late Wednesday into Thursday. Surface low pressure drops out of Canada into the Upper Midwest with a cold front to sweep through the forecast area Thursday morning and afternoon. Gusty northwesterly winds expected behind the front with widespread 40 to 55 mph gusts, strongest across northwestern SD and portions of the western SD plains. A Wind Advisory is now in effect for these areas. Transient high wind gusts (> 60 mph) are possible, although coverage and frequency do not warrant High Wind headlines. Cold air advection and clearing skies will result in widespread freezing/sub-freezing temperatures Thursday night into Friday morning for the majority of the forecast area. Upper level ridging quickly builds over the western half of the country Friday into the weekend. Above average temperatures are forecast for the weekend into early next week with elevated fire weather conditions. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Thursday Night) Issued At 1053 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Light precip will continue over most of western SD through the night. Showers have mostly subsided in northeastern WY, though some spotty low clouds will remain for a few more hours into the forecast period. Clouds across the area will diminish as a front moves through by Thurs morning. Behind the front, strong northwest winds are expected. Gusts up to 50kts are possible for the SD plains, and 40kts for northeastern WY. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory from 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ to 11 PM MDT /midnight CDT/ Thursday for SDZ001-002-012>014-026-030>032-041>043- 046-047-049-072-073-077-078. WY...None. && $$ UPDATE...Dye DISCUSSION...SE AVIATION...Schweigert  723 FXUS65 KFGZ 150458 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 958 PM MST Wed Oct 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Expect clear and cool conditions tonight, with generally dry and breezy weather Thursday and Friday. Tropical moisture may return this weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION...A cold upper low near the Four Corners will eject into Colorado tonight, leaving our skies clear and cool. At the same time, a cold front diving through the Great Plains will bring fairly robust easterly gradients into our state. Most east winds will start on Thursday, peaking early Friday and then dropping off heading into the weekend. Although there will be some locally enhanced gusts over 40 mph at times, much of the area should stay below criteria. This front is the result of a highly-apmlifed pattern that will spawn a new cut-off low off the Baja Peninsula by Friday. This low will hang around for a few days, potentially tapping into moisture from Hurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Trudy. Even if these systems do not feed into the low, they are likely to induce a surge through the Gulf of California. Sounding familiar? Yes, we are entering another weekend with the potential for tropical moisture, followed by a cold front later next week. This setup does not look quite as crazy as the last one, but stay in tune with your weather forecasts over the next few days. && .AVIATION...Thursday 15/06Z through Friday 16/06Z...VFR conditions expected. Light and variable winds overnight, outside localized breezy NE winds downwind of terrain. After 15Z, look for N-NE winds 15-25 kts gusting near 35 kts. OUTLOOK...Friday 16/06Z through Sunday 18/06Z...VFR conditions forecast through the period. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA possible along and south of the Mogollon Rim after 18Z Saturday. Winds will be out of the E-NE through the period, initially between 15-25 kts on Friday, becoming lighter 10-20 kts on Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Cool and windy conditions throughout the period. Winds are northeast through east 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph on Thursday through Friday, remaining elevated overnight. Strongest winds will be along/downwind of higher terrain features in Yavapai and Coconino Counties and north of the White Mountains. Min RH is 30-60% on Thursday then 20-40% on Friday. Daytime temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler than normal. Saturday through Monday...Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain for each day. Winds are 10-20 mph from the east on Saturday, light and variable on Sunday, then southwest 5-15 mph on Monday. Daytime temperatures remain 5-10 degrees cooler than normal. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...Konieczny FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  757 FXUS66 KMTR 150459 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 959 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1216 AM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Warming trend continues through the end of the work week with above normal temperatures peaking Friday - Coastal Flooding Advisory remains in effect through 4 PM today for bayshore locations along the San Pablo Bay - Elevated fire weather conditions due to moderate offshore flow and very dry conditions across the higher elevations mid to late week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 219 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 (This evening through Thursday night) Weak offshore flow today offers little to see on satellite with bright sunny skies area wide. Offshore ridging over the EPAC is helping to lift temperatures to near normal for most locations today. We're seeing breezy winds across higher elevations, that have peaked between 20-25 MPH so far this afternoon. We're not expecting winds to exceed those speeds for the remainder of the day. While we don't have a a FWW or RFW out, we are messaging elevated fire weather concerns across our area, especially where the gustiest winds are at higher elevation locations in the North Bay and East Bay Hills due to critically dry fuels today and through the remainder of the week. Expect another night of clear skies as offshore erodes any marine layer influence overnight. Radiational cooling with the clear skies will result in some cool spots in interior valley locations, while at higher elevations we'll see warmer spots from thermal belting above 1000ft. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 219 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 (Friday through next Tuesday) Elevated to near critical fire concerns continue through the remainder of the week into the beginning of the weekend on Saturday with similar warm, dry and windy conditions especially at higher elevations. The offshore flow, thermal belting and warmer daytime temperatures will result in continued poor overnight recovery and even worse daytime retention through Saturday across the interior. By Sunday, a notable pattern change will shift us back to widespread onshore flow, while a cold front drops temperatures considerably by Sunday afternoon into the beginning of next week. The trough associated with the pattern change will also bring increasing chances for scattered light rain beginning later Monday into Tuesday. The position of the upper level low dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska will determine where the most rain falls, currently focused primarily on the Central Coast with less than a 0.25" between late Monday and Wednesday expected at most. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 959 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Generally VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period, with some high resolution models depicting patchy coastal stratus developing tonight. Low confidence in HAF getting fog and low stratus. If it does happen, the most likely period for development would be 08-11Z before offshore winds mix out the lower layers. Light winds persist overnight, before a moderate offshore push in the interior Thursday morning, balanced by a gentle onshore flow developing in the afternoon. Vicinity of SFO... VFR at the terminal through the TAF period. Light winds overnight will turn offshore Thursday morning before moderate northwest flow resumes in the afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR through the TAF period. Light to gentle offshore winds persist overnight into Thursday morning before the moderate northwest flow resumes afternoon. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 959 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Moderate seas persist across the outer waters through Friday while the inner waters see slight to moderate seas. During this time frame, gentle to fresh northerly breezes continue. Moderate to fresh northerly winds return for the weekend, which should lead to building seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 502 AM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected for the higher elevations late tonight through Friday morning. The main areas of concern will be for the North Bay Interior Mountains and East Bay Hills. The strongest winds look to be over the North Bay Interior Mountains where gusts 30-40 mph are possible, perhaps up to 45mph or higher for the highest elevations. The East Bay Hills will be breezy as well, but may be closer to 25-35 mph with locally higher gust for exposed ridges and areas of higher terrain. Both areas will be dry with poor overnight RH recovery, which combined with the breezy winds, warmer weather, and available fuels leads to the elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...DialH MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea