005 FXUS63 KDMX 150503 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1203 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers gradually move in southwest to northeast tonight, becoming more widespread rain during the day Thursday. Rain gradually ends in the west Thursday night with wrap-around showers possible through Friday afternoon in the north and east. - Becoming windy and much cooler by Thursday night into Friday. Winds out of the north gusting to at least 35-45 mph at times. - Frost is likely early Saturday with morning lows in the low to mid 30s. - Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions expected this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Surface high pressure continues to nudge into the region this afternoon, moving off to the northeast tonight. Cloud cover remains in much of the state and has kept temperatures down in the 50s to low 60s as expected. A few sites with a bit more clearing have climbed into the mid 60s in eastern Iowa. Dry conditions continue for a couple more hours before light rain showers begin to kick off late this afternoon into evening as theta-e advection increases ahead of the approaching upper trough/low. This upper low was analyzed just north of the Four Corners region around midday today and is expected to cross through the Central Plains during the day Thursday. A strong upper trough coming out of Canada will also move southward during the day Thursday ultimately absorbing the other upper low and becoming a strong, deepening upper trough that crosses through much of the central U.S. from later Thursday through Friday. Moisture gradually builds tonight through Thursday and although the deepest moisture remains to the south of our area, pwats will be around 1.25-1.75 during the daytime Thursday as the lee side surface low moves through the region changing our showery activity that gradually moves southwest to northeast from this evening/tonight to more widespread rain from early Thursday morning through the afternoon. A few rumbles of thunder may be possible at times, especially in southern Iowa. Rain gradually ends Thursday night into Friday morning from the initial system but some wrap around precipitation from the 2nd system to the north may bring some additional rain showers to especially northern/northeast/east central Iowa on Friday morning. Have slowed down the PoP departure (or reintroduced in some cases) to account for these additional rain chances on Friday morning. Rain totals through the entire event are not wild, largely below to around 1" with more localized areas of 1-2". The rainy and cloudy conditions Thursday will be paired with temperatures held down largely in the 50s for most locations and in the 60s for areas far south/southeast. Strong cold air advection will be brought into the area as the system to the north passes sending temperatures falling into the 30s to 40s by Friday morning. Conditions will feel even colder as winds out of the north also increase from Thursday night through Friday morning with gusts peaking at least in the 35-45 mph range, some higher gusts are certainly possible prior to winds gradually decreasing through the afternoon and evening Friday as the pressure gradient relaxes. High temperatures in the 50s will feel even colder with the strong, gusty winds. Time to find those jackets! && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Surface high pressure returns later Friday night into Saturday morning leading to light winds, clear skies and good radiational cooling. Temperatures by Saturday morning will be in the low to mid 30s with frost conditions likely so make plans now to protect any sensitive vegetation! With the surface high and an upper ridge in place, dry conditions are expected for the weekend. Temperatures begin to rebound again by later Saturday into Sunday as southwest flow returns. This translates to gradually increasing highs this weekend into early next week with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s Saturday, mid to upper 60s Sunday and then Monday, and in the low to mid 70s Tuesday-Wednsday. The GFS brings a small system near to through the region on Monday but the going forecast remains dry until mid to later next week when there is a bit more consensus for returning precipitation chances. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 MVFR ceilings are advancing northeastward over Iowa late this evening and will lower into IFR as showers begin toward or after sunrise Thursday. With chances remaining around 30% for LIFR ceilings during the steadiest rain, have introduced PROB30 group at each terminal. Rain will end from southwest to northeast late in the afternoon into the early evening as winds from the northwest increase and turn gusty. Ceilings should break at most terminals before the end of the period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...Ansorge  938 FXUS64 KBRO 150502 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1202 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - A cold front Friday will bring strong winds, cooler temperatures, and coastal hazards Friday and Saturday. - A Gale Watch is in effect for 1 PM Friday to 1 PM Saturday. - Low to moderate rain chances Friday along a passing cold front, with greatest chances (40-50%) along the immediate coast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 More warm, dry conditions are expected today as subsidence promotes drier air across deep S TX. This will suppress rain chances and keep heat indices in the 90s to low 100s. A cold front moving through the region Friday will limit Friday highs to the 80s. The forecast has been trending drier given the relatively dry air ahead of the front, with most places expected to see low rain chances (15-35%) Friday and little to no measurable rain. The greatest rain chances (40-50%) are along the immediate coast, with rainfall totals through Sunday of an inch or less expected. Strong northerly winds will develop behind the front, with gusts of 30-35 mph possible by Friday afternoon. A secondary surge of high pressure behind the front will bring potential for stronger winds overnight Friday, with gusts of 45-50+ mph possible. Wind Advisories will likely be needed along the immediate coast late Friday into Saturday, and are possible as far inland as Brooks and Hidalgo counties. There is a 10-20% chance of wind gusts of 55mph or greater east of US-281 during this period. Be sure to secure any decorations or loose objects outdoors before Friday. Much drier air filtering in behind the front may lead to elevated fire weather concerns Friday afternoon and Saturday. The strongest winds should begin diminishing before the driest conditions arrive Saturday afternoon, when RH values could fall to 20-40%. However, strong winds overnight Friday combined with RH values in the 30-40% range could require a Rangeland Fire Discussion for counties along and east of US-281. Strong northerly winds over the Gulf will build seas and increase the risk of life-threatening rip currents, high surf, and coastal flooding along the lower TX coast. Cooler air behind the front will bring highs in the 70s Saturday and overnight lows in the 50s and 60s. Temperatures begin rebounding Sunday with highs in the 80s, gradually climbing into the 90s by midweek. Rain chances may also begin to increase again midweek. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions and southeasterly winds prevail. Winds increase to 10-15 kts late Thursday morning before diminishing overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1100 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Moderate southeasterly flow and moderate seas 3-5 ft will continue today. Winds shift northerly Friday morning as a cold front passes, increasing winds to 20 knots by late morning with gusts of 30-35 knots. Seas increase to 9-12 feet late Friday, with gustier winds 40 kts or greater possible overnight. A Gale Watch is in effect for 1 PM Friday to 1 PM Saturday. There are increased chances (40-70%) of showers and thunderstorms along the front Friday, with low chances in the offshore waters lingering into Saturday. Gale conditions should lessen Saturday afternoon, with Advisory conditions lasting into Saturday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 90 74 88 64 / 10 10 30 10 HARLINGEN 93 71 89 61 / 0 10 20 0 MCALLEN 96 75 90 63 / 0 0 20 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 95 72 88 61 / 0 0 20 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 78 84 69 / 0 10 50 10BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 74 85 64 / 0 10 40 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...69-HK LONG TERM....69-HK AVIATION...69-HK  073 FXUS64 KLUB 150504 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1204 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1151 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Periods of heavy rain and flash flooding remain possible overnight over the Rolling Plains and SE TX Panhandle. - Blustery north winds and cooler temperatures arrive Thursday and continue through Friday. - The first freeze of the season is possible for areas on the Caprock early Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Thursday) Issued at 1010 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Current upper air analysis as of late Wednesday evening highlights a closed upper low positioned over central CO, with the shortwave disturbance responsible for earlier convection exiting to our northeast. Southwest flow aloft will persist over our area through the near term, and a secondary disturbance is visible on water vapor imagery near MAF at 03z which will lift northward towards our forecast area through the rest of tonight. The surface airmass remains cool and very humid, with southeasterly surface flow still in place ahead of a cold front still up in the northern TX Panhandle. Current expectation is for a lull in precip to continue through late this evening, with another round of mainly elevated storms developing near or after midnight as the aforementioned mid/upper level disturbance arrives and the SSW low level jet strengthens. Confidence is low in just how widespread this overnight storm activity will be, but the highest coverage is expected to be off the Caprock. These overnight storms are also expected to remain mostly sub-severe, although plentiful elevated instability may support a couple of instances of large hail. Of greater concern is the threat for additional flash flooding, especially over the Rolling Plains and SE TX Panhandle where a widespread 2 to 5 inches of rain fell earlier Wednesday. Have opted to extend the Flood Watch to remain in effect through Thursday morning for areas off the Caprock, given the saturated soils and risk of high rain rates and additional training storms overnight. PWATs remain exceptionally high for this time of year, so additional swaths of 1 to 2 inches of rain are certainly possible tonight off the Caprock if convection becomes widespread. A few heavy showers or storms are also possible along and west of I-27 overnight, but these should be less widespread. The cold front will make steady southward progress through Thursday morning, and is progged to be through most of the forecast area by mid-morning. The frontal passage should generally bring a gradual end to any lingering showers over much of the region, but we do expect scattered storms to continue along and ahead of the front itself through early afternoon. This could bring additional heavy rain to the southern Rolling Plains before precipitation finally ends by early evening. Otherwise, post-frontal north winds will be on the blustery side through much of the day, with much cooler temperatures expected as highs only reach into the mid 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1143 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 As the cold front sweeps out of the area Thursday night taking rain chances with it, crisp autumn weather takes over on blustery north winds and much drier air. Low stratus initially in the post-frontal layer will scour out on Friday, but skies will be partly to mostly cloudy under a stubborn plume of high clouds. Even without the high clouds, high temps look capped in the 50s which sets the stage for a chilly night as the high clouds clear and north winds go calm. Latest MOS and NBM probs are trending colder everywhere with a light freeze not out of the question for much of the Caprock, which is 1-2weeks ahead of schedule for many locales. High temps remain below normal through the weekend under weak upper ridging before slowly recovering next week ahead of the next slow-moving upper low that is favored to direct another plume of subtropical moisture our way. Rain chances gear up by mid week and continue thereafter with near normal temps. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 IFR/LIFR CIGs will continue at all sites for the next few hours before slightly lifting. Thunderstorms are possible at all sites through the early morning, however KCDS will see the highest chances. Storm chances should end everywhere by afternoon, before breezy northerly winds develop, potentially gusting up to 30 kts. These will persist through much of Friday. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ025-026-031-032-037- 038-043-044. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...19  213 FXUS61 KBGM 150507 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 107 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Temperatures slightly warmer Friday night and winds slightly lower Saturday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strengthening low passes north of the region Friday into Saturday. 2) High pressure and southwest flow will lead to a gradual warm up through next week after a chilly weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 High pressure will give way to an approaching warm front which should push through the region tonight as a low pressure system tracks into the Great Lakes. Clouds will be on the increase today with most spots getting close to 60 for highs. Tonight with the development of a LLJ and warm frontal passage temperatures may not fall much after the early evening hours or even slightly rise toward sunrise. Moisture lifted along the warm front looks sufficient enough for a round of showers as well heading toward daybreak Friday. Overall, the warm sector looks to be in our region slightly longer on Friday now. This should allow for a break in the showers for a time and for high temperatures to make a run at 70 for most of the region. Hires models are showing some slight CAPE advecting into NEPA and perhaps the Southern Tier of NY as well. Some thunder was added to the forecast ahead of the cold front with the final push of showers moving through the region. A few stronger wind gusts may be able to reach the ground with any thunderstorm. Rainfall looks to max out around an inch being aided by terrain in Oneida county with general amounts around half an inch. Temperatures drop sharply Friday night but are trending slightly warmer. With the northerly to northwesterly flow lingering moisture from the Great Lakes should be sufficient enough for lingering clouds and spotty rain showers and or snow flurries. Temperatures look to be stuck in the 30's and 40's Saturday with a sharp but brief cold shot. KEY MESSAGE 2 High pressure builds into the region early next week. Winds have trended lighter Saturday night and with clear skies. Temperatures still are indicated to fall below freezing for most of the area with the growing season still ongoing in Lackawanna and Luzerne counties. A fairly tranquil period is expected with high pressure over the region early next week with weak southwesterly flow allowing for a warmup. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mostly MVFR CIGs expected tonight as the axis of a weak trough crosses the region. Occasional breaks in the cloud decks or increased cloud base heights will allow for brief improvements to VFR. Winds will briefly increase some during the overnight out of the northwest to north with weak cold air advection and a decent LLJ overhead during the overnight period. Thursday, clouds will start to diminish in coverage and cloud base heights will start to increase, resulting in VFR flight conditions for all terminals by the late morning and early afternoon. Clouds will start to increase later in the day ahead of the next system. Outlook... Thursday night Friday...Low pressure system passing by, increasing winds and rain will lead to restrictions. Potential for LLWS will increase for the second half of Thursday night. Saturday...Lake effect cloud cover keeps cig restrictions likely for all terminals but AVP. Early morning snow showers possible at ITH and BGM. Sunday into Monday...High pressure returns with mostly VFR conditions expected. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWG AVIATION...SJW  153 FXUS63 KOAX 150506 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1206 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing chances for showers and storms tonight, peaking at 90%-100% through the morning. - Strong northerly winds gusting 40 to 50mph move in Friday after midnight through the morning weakening Friday afternoon. - Frost continues to look likely late Friday night into Saturday morning with calm winds and clear skies. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1035 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Cloudy skies across the region this evening with a few showers over northeast Nebraska. These showers have developed along a weak boundary stretching all the way northwest toward Rapid City. These will continue to move north-northeast. The system we are watching more closely is a strong upper-level trough over Colorado. This will bring the showers from western Kansas northeast into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa overnight as the closed low weakens and gets absorbed into a stronger upper- level wave dropping south out of Alberta/Saskatchewan. Rainfall will continue across our area through Thursday morning ending through the afternoon as strengthening northerly winds bring in dry air. Thursday night into early Friday we are monitoring the potential for strong winds gusting 40 to 50 mph. As the wave moving out of Canada phases with the decaying system over the Northern Plains, we see the ridge over the West Coast try and advance. This leads to strengthening of the pressure gradient over the Great Plains between these two systems. A broad swath of strong northerly winds develops over the region including eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. NBM guidance shows around a 60% chance of winds gusting above 45 mph over northeast Nebraska Friday morning. Could start as early as 3am, but more likely toward 6AM through 11am. Winds weaken going into Friday afternoon as the trough shifts eastward and the gradient starts to relax, though gusty winds will likely continue until around 6pm. With winds becoming calm, clear skies, and a much cooler Canadian air mass in place, conditions will be ideal for strong radiational cooling overnight Friday into early Saturday. We expect temperatures to fall into the low 30s with a fairly widespread risk for frost. Only spots that might not get cool enough for frost may be in our more urban areas of Omaha, Council Bluffs, and Lincoln. As the ridge continues to trek eastward across the central CONUS over the weekend, we'll see southwesterly flow move back in Saturday trending temperatures warmer over the weekend into next week. Meanwhile, the upper-level pattern remains active. A weak disturbance moves through on Monday, though there won't be enough moisture for more than an increase in cloud cover through the day. A stronger trough deepens along the West Coast early next week. This system will strengthen southwest flow as it approaches midweek bringing temperatures back into the low-to- mid 70s for highs on Tuesday and Wednesday. This system brings our next chances for showers and storms Wednesday-Friday next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 MVFR to IFR conditions will prevail through the majority of the period, as showers continue to overspread the region. While a few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out, any weak storms should be few and far between. Northerly winds will increase Thursday afternoon and evening as showers move out. Expect speeds of 15 to 20 kts, with gusts up to 35 kts possible. Lower ceilings and visibilities are expected to improve to VFR by around 00Z Thursday evening. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...KG  293 FXUS63 KMQT 150509 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 109 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active weather returns Thursday and Friday as a deepening low pressure system works through the Great Lakes bringing periods of rain and gusty N to NW winds. - Hazardous marine weather is expected Friday. Northerly wind gusts to 50 kts are possible (25-50% chance), creating significant wave heights between 15-20 ft. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 218 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Afternoon GOES satellite imagery reveals mostly cloudy skies overhead as surface high pressure and localized ridging works into the Upper Great Lakes. A few broken streams of lake enhanced / convergent showers are noted on radar and observations in Marquette County and may be present across the northern tier of the UP through this evening. Otherwise, temps cool into the upper 30s and 40s tonight. Building sfc high pressure keeps quiet weather at bay through most of Thursday before potentially impactful weather returns through the weekend. Additional details below. The main concern of this forecast period continues to be the evolution of a surface low in the Great Lakes driven by two phasing troughs Thursday night through Friday. Operational deterministic models and their ensemble counterparts continue to be in good agreement that a ~1009 mb surface low will be placed in the vicinity of southern Lake Michigan by Thursday evening. Ample northward moisture transport and isentropic ascent ahead of the lead northern stream trough will provide enough support for widespread rain lifting into the UP Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Latest ensemble guidance continues to increase welcomed rain through Friday morning, now suggesting a 75-90% chance for at least 0.5" anywhere in the UP. Early Friday morning through Fri afternoon the surface low feature deepens while departing northeast atop the Lower Lakes, placing Upper Michigan on the northwestern flank. Strong cold air advection and stout pressure rises (upwards of 1-2mb/hr) will contribute to northerly wind speeds reaching 25-35 kts gusting 45-50 kts on Lake Superior and the adjacent lakeshores. There is still some uncertainty regarding the maximum gust potential as ensembles (NBM and ENS) have decreased the probability of Storm Force gusts in the central lake (20-50% chance) and model soundings don't highlight mixing into any 50 kts gust layers. As 850 mb temps cool between -5 to -7C, lake effect/enhanced rain on the backside of the system will provide an additional 0.25-0.5" of precip or the north wind snowbelts and upsloping locations of the west and central high terrain once system rain clears the area. Wouldn't surprise me to see some wet snow mix into areas of the interior highlands early Friday as freezing levels fall ~1000 ft AGL, though the window for any quick show of rain/snow mix is short as soundings show dry air mixing into the the DGZ and sub-cloud layer. As winds settle late Friday and dry high pressure clears skies from west to east, temperatures will drop like a rock overnight into Saturday morning, reaching the mid to low 20s for much if not all of the interior while some lakeshores may reach freezing for the first time this fall. Ridging and dry weather dominate through the rest of the weekend with the potential for another warm up / fire weather pattern Sunday into Monday. Similar to last weekend's fire weather setup, ensembles suggest a 50-75% chance for S to SW winds gusting to 35 mph in the typical downslope locations of the west and central UP and minimum RHs falling to near 30% in the interior west and central. Luckily, temperatures are only slated to peak into the 60s. Fire partners and adjacent parties should continue to monitor the forecastas containment and mop up efforts for ongoing wildfires may still be ongoing. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 109 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Low end VFR to MVFR cigs persist this morning accompanied by calm conditions as high pressure passes overhead. Deterioration down to IFR is expected with rain this afternoon as another system moves in from the west. Expect rain to arrive at IWD around 16Z, followed by CMX at 19Z, and SAW at around 21Z. Although periods of LIFR can't be ruled out at IWD/CMX, mention was only added to SAW for now as exact timing and duration remains uncertain in the western UP. && .MARINE... Issued at 218 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Lake Superior: Periods of breezy 15-25 kt NW gusts persist mainly across the eastern half of the lake through this evening. Winds briefly lay down below 15kts tonight into early Thursday before becoming southerly and gusting to around 15-20kts ahead of a strong cold front Thursday night into Friday morning. This strong cold front accompanies a deepening low pressure system that works through the Lower Great Lakes on Friday. Strong cold advection and rapid pressure rises will create sustained winds near gale force with gusts reaching 40-50 kts in the central lake Friday morning. Significant wave heights build between 15-20 feet, highest along the southern lakeshores. Winds and waves slowly subside lake into early Saturday. A Gale Watch is in effect for the entire lake on Friday. Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: Breezy NW winds near 15-20 kts persist through this afternoon, falling below 15kts later this evening. Winds turn southerly Thursday ahead of a strong cold front that whips through the northern bay and lake late Thurs- early Fri. Northwest winds quickly ramp up between 35-40 kts Friday with waves building between 5-8 ft. Winds and waves subside below gale force into Saturday. A Gale Watch is in effect for all N Lake Michigan marine zones on Friday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for LSZ162-240>242-263. Gale Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for LSZ243-244-264. Gale Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for LSZ245>251-265>267. Lake Michigan... Gale Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for LMZ221-248-250. && $$ DISCUSSION...BW AVIATION...77 MARINE...BW/LC  265 FXUS66 KPQR 150508 AAB AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1008 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Updated Avition Discussion .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will maintain dry weather through Friday. Offshore flow will bring unseasonably warm temperatures Thursday and Friday along with gusty east winds in the western slopes of the Cascades and Columbia River Gorge. A weak cold front will bring chances for light rain late Friday night into Saturday, before high pressure brings a quick return to dry weather Saturday night into Sunday. Chances for widespread rain return Monday into early Tuesday with an approaching low pressure system, although model guidance has been trending drier. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night...Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon shows drier air aloft moving overhead as a weak upper level trough moves out of the region, while upper level ridging amplifies over the northeast Pacific. This ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the region and into western Canada on Thursday. Surface high pressure builds into western Montana while a surface thermal trough develops along the Oregon coast Thursday morning. This will lead to a period of offshore flow with east winds through the Columbia River Gorge and western slopes of the Cascades. Warming aloft coupled with dry, downsloping winds will bring unseasonably warm temperatures across the area Thursday and Friday. Model guidance remains in good agreement for widespread high temperatures warming into the mid to upper 70s both days, including at the coast on Thursday. A few locations may see temperatures reach 80 degrees, with around a 10-60% chance along the I-5 corridor, highest chances south and east. Although high temperatures are expected to be around 10-15 degrees above normal for mid-October, most locations are not expected to break any records (which were mainly set back in 2022). Could be our last "hot" day of the year, as we typically see temperatures drop off during the second half of October. East winds will also become gusty by Thursday morning, especially through the Columbia River Gorge into the eastern Portland Metro area. Model guidance suggests surface pressure gradients increase to around -5 to -6 mb which could produce wind gusts up to 25-35 mph, except up to 45-50 mph on wind-prone exposed ridgetops. Pressure gradients likely begin to slacken later Friday morning with winds easing by the afternoon. Onshore flow returns by late Friday night ahead of an incoming cold front. /DH .LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday Night...There is high confidence among ensemble guidance for cooler temperatures this weekend as a weak cold front swings through the region and brings chances for light rain. Light rain begins at the coast Friday night, mainly from Lincoln City northward. Rain chances spread inland Saturday morning, peaking around 40-60% across the south Washington and north Oregon Cascades, 25-50% along the I-5 corridor from Salem northward, and 10-20% south of Salem. Rain amounts, if any, will be light. Conditions quickly dry out Saturday night to Sunday as transient shortwave ridge passes through. Expect seasonable temperatures in the 60s across interior valleys and 50s along the coast and Cascades. Monday to Tuesday, the majority of ensemble members are in agreement that an upper-level trough from the northeast Pacific will approach the Pacific Northwest, bringing increased chances for widespread rain between early Monday morning and Tuesday morning. This system has the potential, albeit low, to bring a more meaningful amount of rain considering how dry conditions have been thus far this October. The NBM currently shows a 20-35% chance for at least 0.25 inches of rain between5 AM PDT Monday and 5 AM PDT Wednesday. Probs continue to come down as there are an increasing number of ensemble members showing a solution where the upper-level trough remains farther offshore or progresses farther south into California, limiting the amount of rain in our area. Chances for impactful wind gusts over 40 mph are currently less than 10% with this system. DH/10/23 && .AVIATION...Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions across the airspace with mostly clear skies. Strengthening offshore pressure gradients between KTTD and KDLS will result in increasing easterly winds after 06Z Thu. East winds across the Cascades with the strongest winds through the Columbia River Gorge with gusts up to 35 kts. These stronger east winds reach KTTD around 12Z Thursday with gusts up to 30 kts, followed by KPDX around 18Z Thursday with gusts up to 25 kt. Gusty east winds could also manifest for areas near the gaps and flows of the coast range, thus locations near KONP could experience gusts up to 20 kt starting around 17Z Thursday. Gusty winds expected to subside around 00Z Friday across the airspace, but will maintain an easterly component. Otherwise, winds remain north/northwesterly 5-10 kts within the Willamette Valley and easterly at 5-10 kt along the coast. LLWS will possibly impact KPDX and locations eastward starting around 11Z Thursday through around 00Z Friday. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions with mostly clear skies through the TAF period. Northwesterly winds 4-6 kt. LLWS will possibly impact KPDX and locations eastward starting around 11Z Thursday through 00Z Friday. /42 && .MARINE...Benign marine conditions continue. Southerly winds are turning northerly to northeasterly this afternoon, continuing through the end of the week. Winds turn southerly again over the weekend and into early next week as a series of fronts pass through the waters. Seas remain around 4-7 ft this week with periods of 12-14 seconds. A steeper northwesterly swell arrives this weekend, building seas to 7-9 ft by Sunday and 10-12 ft early next week. There is a 10-20% chance for seas exceeding 15 ft on Monday, with the highest chances north of Cape Falcon and beyond 30-40 NM. Will also note that the long periods from the swells will result in a moderate sneaker wave threat this week. Caution should be used when in or near the water. -10/03 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  786 FXUS64 KOHX 150515 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1215 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1211 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Rain will diminish from west to east overnight. - Unseasonably warm weather will last through today with record highs possible. - A dry, breezy cold front will arrive on Friday, bringing much cooler temperatures this weekend and into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Rain and thunderstorms are riding the KY/TN state line tonight from west to east. This activity is expected to stay north of I-40 and continue to weaken through the night. There is a slim chance for some patchy fog after the rain passes through overnight, with temperatures bottoming out in the 60s. Thursday should shake out to be a nice, albeit hot, day. The potential remains for record to be broken in the high temperature department, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. But skies will be clearing up through the morning. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 The cold front that lags behind the rain we saw today is expected to swing through on Friday. This frontal passage looks to be dry, with the exception of some low rain chances on the Cumberland Plateau. After this, we're not expecting any rain for the remainder of the forecast period. Overall, we're looking at highs in the 60s/70s and lows in the 30s and 40s for the weekend. Our temperatures will drop so much that we could see our first frost of the season on the Cumberland Plateau on Sunday morning. Sadly, it will only be a taste of fall, as the return of clearer skies will also bring back the heat. Highs by mid-week next week will creep back up into the upper 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions persist with the exception of CKV where dense fog will impact the terminal through 14Z. Light and variable winds overnight will shift southwesterly after 15Z with sustained speeds between 5-10 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 92 63 69 46 / 10 0 20 0 Clarksville 91 58 66 44 / 10 10 10 0 Crossville 85 62 73 41 / 10 0 30 20 Columbia 93 63 72 45 / 0 0 20 0 Cookeville 88 63 70 44 / 10 0 40 10 Jamestown 86 63 72 43 / 10 10 40 20 Lawrenceburg 91 63 73 44 / 0 0 20 0 Murfreesboro 93 64 72 45 / 0 0 20 0 Waverly 90 59 64 45 / 10 0 20 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Baggett  822 FXUS65 KTFX 150515 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1115 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions are expected through the weekend with a warm up in temperatures Friday and Saturday. - Gusty winds set up along the Rocky Mountain Front Saturday with breezy conditions across the plains. - Next round of precipitation looks to come through the first half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 522 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: An upper-level ridge will slowly build across the region through Friday, keeping conditions dry through the weekend. High pressure continues to dominate the region through Saturday, keeping subsidence at the surface. Low level moisture from the continued melting snowpack bring another slight potential for fog development/low stratus tonight, particularly along the river valleys. A dry mid level shortwave passing through today over the Rocky Mountain Front has brought windy conditions along the immediate eastern foothills this morning. These winds will decrease throughout the afternoon. This ridge flattens out heading into Saturday, bringing increased westerly flow aloft. A strong 700mb jet sets up along the Rocky Mountain Front Saturday afternoon, which coinciding with peak day time mixing, will mix these stronger winds to the surface. The core of the jet does not extend much east of the Rocky Mountain Front, so the plains will see lesser wind speeds. The increased chinook winds also help push temperatures up back to above normal Saturday. Ensembles hint at a trough coming down from British Columbia during the first half of next week. However, the degree of troughing/timing still varies greatly so details remain uncertain. Though, the forecast is pointing towards a cool down after Saturday with some precipitation chances heading into next week. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Models are still consistently showing the 700mb winds peaking at 60- 75 kts along the immediate eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountain Front Saturday afternoon into evening. There remains some uncertainty in how far east these core winds extend, with some models extending it toward the Cut Bank to Sweet Grass Hills area while some keep the stronger winds to the immediate foothills of the Rocky's. Timing remains uncertain as well. If the peak mid level jet arrives in the mid afternooon then there will be a better chance for gusty winds. Some models trend it later in the evening, which will lower the chances of these winds mixing to the surface. Ensembles show a 40% chance for 58 mph wind gusts at Cut Bank and a 30-60% chance for 75 mph wind gusts along the immediate Rocky Mountain Front foothills. -Wilson && .AVIATION... 15/06Z TAF Period A wind shift/weak cold front will continue to sag southward across the plains early this morning. Mid-level cloudiness will increase through the remainder of the night in many areas, but diminish through the morning Thursday. Northwesterly surface winds behind the front look to be most gusty and persistent at KHVR. -AM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 31 48 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 26 45 25 62 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 30 50 27 60 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 28 47 24 60 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 19 52 17 56 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 26 46 25 57 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 31 49 25 66 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 30 43 29 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains- Southern Rocky Mountain Front. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  846 FXUS61 KBGM 150516 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 116 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Temperatures slightly warmer Friday night and winds slightly lower Saturday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strengthening low passes north of the region Friday into Saturday. 2) High pressure and southwest flow will lead to a gradual warm up through next week after a chilly weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 High pressure will give way to an approaching warm front which should push through the region tonight as a low pressure system tracks into the Great Lakes. Clouds will be on the increase today with most spots getting close to 60 for highs. Tonight with the development of a LLJ and warm frontal passage temperatures may not fall much after the early evening hours or even slightly rise toward sunrise. Moisture lifted along the warm front looks sufficient enough for a round of showers as well heading toward daybreak Friday. Overall, the warm sector looks to be in our region slightly longer on Friday now. This should allow for a break in the showers for a time and for high temperatures to make a run at 70 for most of the region. Hires models are showing some slight CAPE advecting into NEPA and perhaps the Southern Tier of NY as well. Some thunder was added to the forecast ahead of the cold front with the final push of showers moving through the region. A few stronger wind gusts may be able to reach the ground with any thunderstorm. Rainfall looks to max out around an inch being aided by terrain in Oneida county with general amounts around half an inch. Temperatures drop sharply Friday night but are trending slightly warmer. With the northerly to northwesterly flow lingering moisture from the Great Lakes should be sufficient enough for lingering clouds and spotty rain showers and or snow flurries. Temperatures look to be stuck in the 30's and 40's Saturday with a sharp but brief cold shot. KEY MESSAGE 2 High pressure builds into the region early next week. Winds have trended lighter Saturday night and with clear skies. Temperatures still are indicated to fall below freezing for most of the area with the growing season still ongoing in Lackawanna and Luzerne counties. A fairly tranquil period is expected with high pressure over the region early next week with weak southwesterly flow allowing for a warmup. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mostly MVFR CIGs will continue tonight as the axis of a weak trough crosses the region. Occasional breaks in the cloud decks or increased cloud base heights will allow for brief improvements to VFR. Winds will briefly increase some during the overnight out of the northwest to north with weak cold air advection and a decent LLJ overhead during the overnight period. Heading into the daytime hours, clouds will start to diminish in coverage and cloud base heights will start to increase, resulting in VFR flight conditions for all terminals by the late morning and early afternoon. Clouds will start to increase later in the day ahead of the next system. Outlook... Thursday night Friday...Low pressure system passing by, increasing winds and rain will lead to restrictions. Potential for LLWS will increase for the second half of Thursday night. Saturday...Lake effect cloud cover keeps cig restrictions likely for all terminals but AVP. Early morning snow showers possible at ITH and BGM. Sunday into Monday...High pressure returns with mostly VFR conditions expected. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWG AVIATION...KL  856 FXUS66 KMFR 150516 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1016 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .Updated AVIATION Discussion... && .AVIATION...15/06Z TAFs...VFR will prevail through the TAF period for all terminals. East to southeast winds increase over the mountains, especially the Cascades/Siskiyous, late tonight and during Thursday morning. These winds, just a couple of thousand feet AGL, will be approximately 25-30 kt from the ESE. This will bring an enhanced risk of low level wind shear at Medford Airport after 10- 12Z, lasting until about 17Z-18Z due to a strong inversion, which should prevent those winds from reaching the surface. It could get breezy in Ashland, however. -Spilde && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 238 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026/ KEY MESSAGES... * Warming trend continues Thursday and Friday. * A dry cold front will move through Saturday with most cooling felt in Oregon. * Dry, mild weather is expected Sunday. * Stronger front approaches coast Sunday night into Monday, but rain chances keep lowering since most precipitation is now associated with low pressure farther offshore. DISCUSSION...Another warm period is upon us. High pressure will move in aloft tonight into Thursday and this will bring above normal warmth through Friday. Even some warm readings will be felt all the way to the coast on Thursday due to low-level offshore flow. Overall, temps will be about 10-15F above normal both Thursday and Friday, with up to 20F above normal for inland areas N&W of the Cascades/Siskiyous. Locally breezy conditions will be felt on the upper slopes/ridges if you find yourself out for a mountain hike, but also perhaps in the Ashland area since winds aloft there are aligned from the ESE tonight through Friday morning. More marine influence is expected along the coast Friday, so it should cool a bit there compared to Thursday. A dry cold front will move through Saturday, so it'll be cooler for most areas with more clouds across NW sections due to a deeper marine push. Temperatures should drop back closer to normal west of the Cascades, but remain about 10F above normal south and east of the mountains. Would expect potential for breezes during the afternoon, but models aren't really showing much wind at this time. Aside from some morning clouds west of the Cascades and along the coast, Sunday should be dry and mild. The next frontal system will approach the coast Sunday night. Older model runs had been showing a fairly healthy front swinging through the PacNW Monday with a good chance for rain. But, recent developments are showing split flow (harbinger of this winter?) with most of the precipitation occurring beneath the developing low pressure offshore. As the front approaches it stalls, and the low dives southward far enough offshore to keep much of the precip out over the ocean. Rain chances are still running in the 20-40% range for Monday. Coastal areas stand the best shot at some precip, but probably not the rain needed after such a dry start to October. After that, models are showing that low headed into southern California. It's conceivable that some of that moisture could eventually come farther north into our area later in the week. But, uncertainty is high and other plausible scenarios indicate much of that could easily escape and miss to our south and east. -Spilde MARINE...Updated 1230 PM PDT Wednesday, October 14, 2026...Gusty north winds and steep wind-driven seas south of Cape Blanco will diminish through tonight. Improved conditions are expected Thursday into Friday. Another round of north winds is possible this weekend, then south winds and rain are possible early next week with the arrival of low pressure offshore. FIRE WEATHER...An unseasonably warm air mass moves in over SW Oregon and NorCal late this week (Thu/Fri). This will bring elevated fire weather risk, especially over the higher terrain. Offshore winds (E-SE) strengthen tonight into Thursday morning, peaking over the upper slopes and ridges, especially the Cascades, west side foothills and Siskiyou mtns with peak gusts of 25-35 mph. Expect worsening mid slope/ridge RH recoveries during the overnights (worst Thursday night from the Cascades west, and then Friday night from the Cascades east). Winds should subside a bit by Friday night, but still could be gusty Thursday night/Friday morning. A very dry day is expected Friday with afternoon minimum RH in the teens in many areas, perhaps even some single digit readings in portions of NorCal and over the East Side. Right now, these conditions do not meet Red Flag warning criteria, due to either moderate fire danger, or not long enough duration of combined critical wind/rh levels. Even so, conditions will be elevated to near critical (especially in the Umpqua NF/southern Oregon Cascades and perhaps Modoc at times). As a result, we opted to headline the Fire Weather Planning Forecast. On Saturday, a dry cold front will swing through and humidity will increase for all but the far S&E sections of the area. Winds don't appear to be too strong with this front, so fire concerns lessen. Humidity recoveries will be much better area wide Saturday night. -Spilde && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376. && $$  940 FXUS64 KAMA 150518 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1218 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1208 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Breezy conditions expected Thursday afternoon and evening, with wind gusts possibly approaching 50 mph, particularly in the northwestern Panhandles. - Low temperatures Friday night are forecast to dip below freezing in portions of the combined Panhandles and may lead to frost or freeze products being issued. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to continue through the night tonight and through the morning, with the southeastern Texas Panhandle holding onto precipitation chances a little bit longer, lasting into the afternoon. Currently, a cutoff low is analyzed over Colorado. As the day progresses, the low will travel east and be ingested by a strong upper-level trough over the Central Plains. A surface low positioned over the TX/NM border will also be moving inline with the aforementioned cutoff low, though it will have a more northeasterly trajection, bringing it through the Panhandles. A cold front associated with the surface low will begin to move in and through the area today. This cold front will bring cooler temperatures and drier conditions, particularly as we go into the overnight Thursday night. A strong pressure gradient will exist behind the cold front and an associated LLJ with 40-50kt winds will drive breezy conditions at the surface. We will be considering wind advisories for at least portions of the northwest combined Panhandles. Thursday's high temperatures look to peak in the low to mid 60s in the northern and western portions of the Panhandles, while the southestern corner of the TX Panhandle will peak near 70. Thursday night, the northern and western Panhandles look to have low temperatures bottom out in the mid 30s to low 40s while the southeastern corner of the TX Panhandles drops to the mid 40s. Abdullayev/Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A strong upper-level trough will continue progressing off to the east, with a ridge building in behind it. Temperatures look to stay quite cool Friday with high temperatures in the mid 50s across the combined Panhandles. Friday night's low temperatures may approach freezing temperatures and may even dip into the upper 20s in the northern and northwestern Panhandles, frost and freeze products may be needed. As the ridge builds in and a cutoff low moves over the Southwest US, we are expecting temperatures to gradually warm up through the weekend and into next week. The upper-level ridge looks to stick with us through the next week, though some operational models want to initialize a shortwave trough over Colorado putting us in a favorable location Sunday night and Monday for some precipitation. However, the other models do not agree with this solution, and a lot of variables remain unsettled. We will be watching this over the next few days and adjust the forecast as needed. Midweek next week, a deep trough off the Pacific Coast will begin to move over the Western US and move east. Exact impacts are not known at this time, however, it is another weather system we will watch over the several days to see how it progresses. Abdullayev/Vanden Bosch && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Low ceilings and visibility concerns expected to continue for the next few hours at all TAF sites as they are at LIFR or below. These conditions are expected to improve overnight and into the morning ultimately leadingto VFR conditions. Breezy winds out of the north look to dominate in the afternoon. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 AM CDT early this morning for TXZ001>003-006>008-011>013. Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT early this morning for TXZ010-014-015- 019-020. OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 AM CDT early this morning for OKZ001- 002. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...52  930 FXUS65 KABQ 150518 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1118 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1104 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - The first freeze of the season for the upper Rio Grande Valley, including Taos, is forecast late tonight into Thursday morning. - A backdoor cold front will sweep south and west across the area Thursday, creating strong north winds across eastern NM on Thursday and strong east canyon or gap winds into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys Thursday evening. - The first freeze of the season is forecast Thursday night for areas from Raton, to Las Vegas, to Moriarty and Clines Corners. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 152 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 The upper low now just north of the Four Corners will continue to influence NM weather over the next 36 hours. This upper low will continue to shift northeastward over CO through early Thursday. A dry slot has rounded the high and punched through NM from SW to NE as evident on satellite imagery. Thus, storms will continue to decrease in coverage through the afternoon, however, a few storms will persist across north central NM just ahead of the upper low, while others may form near the OK or TX border and quickly shift northeastward into TX. Rainfall amounts will continue to be light. Otherwise, breezy to locally windy conditions will persist through early evening as a Pacific cold front moves from west to east across the area. Southwest winds will gradually become more westerly across central and western NM and gusts between 25 and 40 mph will be common. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front over NE NM this morning will continue to loiter over the area today, keeping temperatures up to 20 degrees colder than yesterday around KCAO. Speaking of temps, high temperatures across western NM will be 10 to 15 degrees colder than yesterday as well. Surface winds will become more northwesterly this evening and overnight across central and western NM, and a few breezes will persist, especially around KCQC. However, winds are expected to drop off overnight across the upper Rio Grande Valley. Strong radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop below freezing for the first time in this area, including around Taos. A Freeze Warning remains in effect for this zone. As the aforementioned upper low shifts into the northern Great Plains, the backdoor cold front loitering around NE NM will be reinforced with a stronger front. This reinforcement will enter NE NM Thursday morning before quickly sliding southward across the plains. With H7 winds increasing to between 45 and 50kt during the aftn, confidence is high that strong winds will be noted behind the front across NE NM. A Wind Advisory has been issued for this area from noon to midnight for wind gusts between 50 and 55 mph. This Wind Advisory may be expanded southward for strong winds Thursday evening and into the overnight hours, especially around Curry and Roosevelt counties, but cannot rule out much of eastern NM. Of greater confidence continues to be strong winds below gaps in the Rio Grande Valley and upper Tularosa Valley as the front pushes through the Central Mountain Chain Thursday night. Wind gusts between 50 and 65 mph remain likely with the peak winds generally between 9pm and midnight. MET and MAV wind guidance have been trending downward for winds at KABQ, which may result in the High Wind Watch becoming a Wind Advisory for the metro with gusts of 50-55 mph, but confidence is higher that it will become a High Wind Warning farther south with gusts of 58-65 mph. Will let the night crew take another look before deciding how to upgrade the watch. Regardless of the eventual product, it continues to look very windy. The front will also usher in much cooler temperatures. The first freeze of the season is expected from areas from Raton, to Las Vegas, to Moriarty and Clines Corners Thursday night. Western Union County will likely also see freezing temperatures. Santa Fe will be close as well, but should stay just above freezing. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 152 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Friday's high temperatures will be 5 to 20 degrees below normal areawide following the backdoor front. Winds will slowly decrease during the morning hours, though breezy conditions will persist through the rest of the day. A widespread freeze is expected Friday night under excellent radiational cooling conditions. For those areas that will freeze tonight and/or Thursday night, a hard freeze is likely Friday night. Though the ABQ Sunport will likely stay above freezing, areas around KAEG and Belen may see sub-freezing temperatures. KROW, KTCC, Socorro and KFMN will be close to freezing, but could stay just above. While the upper low mentioned above shifted toward the northern Great Plains, a baggy trough that was left behind closed into a low and retrograded to the west of northern Baja California. Over the weekend and into Monday, this feature will weaken and gradually shift northeastward. A few showers or thunderstorms may develop across western NM each day but coverage will be spotty at best. Temperatures will gradually rise back toward normal by Monday. All eyes will then be on the next upper low that dives southward along the west coast Tuesday. Depending on it's position, moisture may increase with enhanced southerly flow, or if the low is too far west, weak ridging may dominate NM. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 LIFR cigs prevail behind a backdoor cold front across east central and northeast NM, but VFR conditions prevail at TAF sites and are forecast to persist through the TAF period. A strong backdoor cold front will move southwest across the area Thursday afternoon and evening, resulting in a wind shift and gusty winds at TAF sites. A strong east canyon wind will develop behind the front at KABQ Thursday evening, with gusts to between 40-50kts. An Airport Weather Warning will be required for KABQ. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 152 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Main fire weather concerns are strong winds through early Friday followed by poor ventilation over the weekend into early next week. Breezy to windy southwest to west winds will persist through the rest of the afternoon. Winds will turn northwesterly and weaken this evening and overnight. On Thursday, a strong backdoor cold front will slide down the eastern plains before pushing westward through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain Thursday evening. Northerly wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph are expected across eastern NM, while easterly gusts between 50 and 65 mph are expected below gaps in the Rio Grande Valley. Winds will slowly decrease through Friday morning, but will remain breezy through Friday aftn. Temperatures will be below normal areawide on Friday. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible across western NM this weekend into Monday, otherwise temperatures will gradually climb back to normal through the period. Considerable uncertainty exists Tuesday and beyond. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 36 62 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 28 62 28 65 / 5 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 31 61 34 58 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 28 59 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 26 60 35 60 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 30 61 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 31 63 37 61 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 38 61 38 58 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 32 60 35 57 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 34 69 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 39 75 45 69 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 28 55 29 60 / 10 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 36 60 37 58 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 36 61 33 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 31 58 29 56 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 23 48 23 48 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 20 54 20 51 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 30 61 28 59 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 32 57 28 55 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 36 67 37 63 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 38 62 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 37 64 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 42 69 43 61 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 43 70 45 63 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 40 71 44 65 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 43 70 42 63 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 42 71 44 66 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 40 70 42 64 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 40 71 43 65 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 41 71 42 64 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 42 71 45 65 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 41 67 41 62 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 42 70 42 63 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 45 70 45 65 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 36 62 36 56 / 0 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 38 65 38 59 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 36 64 35 58 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 34 66 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 36 60 33 53 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 35 63 35 56 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 37 64 36 56 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 45 70 42 57 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 41 63 35 50 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 36 52 29 50 / 20 0 0 0 Raton........................... 34 58 31 55 / 10 0 0 0 Springer........................ 35 62 32 58 / 5 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 33 58 32 57 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 42 57 36 55 / 40 0 0 0 Roy............................. 40 60 35 57 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 46 69 42 62 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 46 67 41 60 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 47 69 43 60 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 49 68 42 56 / 10 0 0 0 Portales........................ 48 70 45 58 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 50 70 45 61 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 50 77 50 63 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 46 70 41 56 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 44 69 39 53 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from noon Thursday to midnight MDT Thursday night for NMZ227-228-230-231. Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for NMZ222-223-228>230. High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for NMZ219-220-224-225. Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Thursday for NMZ216.&& $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...11  944 FXUS65 KGJT 150518 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1118 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Valley rain and mountain snow will continue through tonight, with snow favoring the central and northern Colorado mountains. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect. - Cool temperatures can be expected over the next several days with sub freezing nighttime temperatures forecast across northwest Colorado and other mountain valley areas on Thursday night. A Freeze Watch is in effect Thursday night through Friday morning. - Drier weather is expected Thursday through most of the weekend, with a gradual warming trend to near-normal temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1027 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUE: Current satellite imagery indicates that the center of the low pressure that has brought widespread mountain snow and valley rain is currently located over the Central Divide mountains, continuing to track northeastward. Moisture wrapping around the backside of this low is keeping valley rain and higher elevation snow showers going across much of central- and north-western Colorado this evening. This has resulted in sloppy road conditions over mountain passes, so be cautious and prepared for winter driving if out travelling tonight. The low is expected to reach the eastern Colorado Plains by daybreak Thursday, with the plume of wrap-around moisture finally moving east of the Divide. An additional 1-3 inches of snow will be possible across the central and northern Divide ranges, with a trace to an inch for mainly the northern San Juans. Some higher snow amounts are possible along the Uncompahgre River Gorge south of Ouray, as this area tends to fare better than guidance indicates under these types of northerly flow, wrap-around moisture events. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for elevations above 9500 feet in the central and northern Divide mountains through 6AM Thursday morning. DRYING OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND: As the low tracks east into the plains, energy in the base of the parent trough splits off and begins to retrograde into Southern California. Between these two features, high pressure noses in from the west, bringing drier, quieter weather to eastern Utah and western Colorado. By Friday, the retrograded area of low pressure remains stationary across SoCal, with high pressure to the north, creating a Rex Block for the West, while deep troughing dominates the eastern CONUS. This will keep conditions stagnant for several days, with the next chance for active weather across eastern Utah and western Colorado not expected until early to mid-next week. Models remain in poor agreement over most details regarding this next system, so stay tuned. In the meantime, clear skies and a much drier airmass are expected for the Western Slope. Temperatures will start out 5-10 degrees below normal, but gradually warm to near normal by the weekend. Clearing skies and this much colder airmass in place will promote effective radiational cooling Thursday night into Friday morning, especially across northwest Colorado and into some of the higher elevation valleys in the central-western and southwestern Colorado. A Freeze Watch is in effect for these areas from late Thursday night through late Friday morning. Widespread temperatures of 25-30F are expected, with values dropping as low as 20F in favored spots. If you have sensitive vegetation or outdoor plumbing, now is a good time to take the necessary precautions to protect them. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1116 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Showers will continue this morning with low ceilings and visibility. Snow is occurring at higher elevation sites including KASE, KEGE, KTEX, and KHDN. Low stratus and fog may develop especially in the mountain valleys but confidence in exact timing and location is low. Expect below ILS breakpoints at mountain TAF sites through the evening hours with MVRF/IFR possible in heavier showers. Conditions will begin to improve later this morning into the afternoon. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for COZ001-002-005-008-023. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Thursday for COZ004-009- 010-012-013. UT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BGB/TGJT AVIATION...RJ/TGJT  158 FXUS61 KBOX 150522 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 122 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Gale Watches have been issued for all waters due to the potential for strong post-frontal northwest wind gusts Friday evening through Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated shower possible this afternoon, but otherwise mainly dry and warm. Dry Thursday with seasonably cool temperatures. - Fast-moving system to bring periods of rain Friday, followed by drier and much colder conditions Saturday. - Quiet and seasonable weather Sunday through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Isolated shower possible this afternoon, but otherwise mainly dry and warm. Dry Thursday with seasonably cool temperatures. For the rest of the afternoon, expect dry conditions overall with the exception of an isolated shower through the evening. Tonight will be dry with mainly clear skies with temperatures falling into the 40s. Cooler air advects in from the north overnight while surface high pressure shifts eastward into the region. The tightened pressure gradient along with steeper lapse rates should support some mixing to bring down gusts around 20 kts, perhaps a little stronger for the Cape where the gradient is tighter. Surface high pressure settles over southern New England on Thursday. As it builds in, the pressure gradient will relax, allowing winds to decrease through the morning. Large scale subsidence will maintain dry conditions alongside light northerly flow. A cooler airmass will be in place characterized by 925mb temperatures +6- 8(approx 10C cooler than Wed). This will bring a seasonably cool day with high temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Fast-moving system to bring periods of rain Friday, followed by drier and much colder conditions Saturday. Forecast trends continue to indicate a rather soggy end to the week. The good news is that this is a fairly progressive system, with rain clearing out in time for the weekend. High pressure drifts east and offshore overnight into early Friday. Meanwhile, to our west, a low pressure system develops across the eastern Great Lakes and deepens as it travels northeast through the Saint Lawrence Valley. The low is expected to deepen by roughly 10 to 15 mb within 24 hours, reaching around 995 mb by late Friday evening. Out ahead of the low, a warm front brings an initial band of rain to southern New England during the early morning hours Friday, beginning during the predawn hours and spreading from west to east. There is the potential for a lull in activity between late morning and early afternoon. While in the warm sector, anticipate mild, muggy, and breezy conditions with south-southwesterly winds. A second round of showers, with the potential for thunder, is expected late Friday afternoon through the evening with the passage of a strong cold front. Drier and cooler conditions follow beginning Saturday morning. In terms of precipitation, PWATs are quite elevated for mid-October, with values ranging between 1.5 and 1.8 inches, roughly 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal. Locally heavy downpours are possible, though the flooding threat is minimal considering the progressive nature of the system. As mentioned, warm frontal showers are expected during the predawn hours Friday. There will be less lift during the daytime; however, spotty showers may continue due to ongoing WAA. As the surface low tracks closer to Quebec City, a cold front brings strong forcing during the late afternoon and evening, with a final round of showers and embedded thunderstorms. While we do not anticipate widespread severe weather, there is a fair amount of bulk shear, ranging from 50 to 80 knots, and MUCAPE values around 500 J/kg.It could be one of those days where the higher shear compensates for the relatively limited instability. This is something we will continue to monitor. As for rainfall amounts, there is still a bit of spread among the guidance, though consensus is leaning toward 0.3 to 0.8 inches. That being said, locally higher amounts are possible, with the greatest potential for more than an inch of rainfall across northwestern Massachusetts, where DESI probabilities are 15 to 25 percent. As mentioned, it will be breezy on Friday, with a 30 to 40 knot low- level jet. However, the low-level thermal inversion will play a significant role in determining how much of that wind can mix down to the surface. Given a neutral inversion, did not want to mix the full strength of the low-level jet to the ground. Therefore, gusts of 25 to 35 mph on Friday seem the most reasonable. Behind the front, strong CAA aloft sends 850 mb temperatures falling from +17C on Friday to -5C on Saturday. With steep low-level lapse rates, there will be efficient mixing through the lower levels. Gusts Saturday afternoon may approach 30 to 40 mph. Mixing may be further enhanced over the warmer ocean waters; thus, Gale Watches have been issued for all waters from Friday evening through Saturday evening. While temperatures will be mild on Friday, the bigger story will be the cold on Saturday. As mentioned, temperatures aloft will be in free fall. Highs will struggle to reach the upper 40s to lower 50s. However, when factoring in the wind, it will likely feel as though temperatures are in the upper 30s to middle 40s Saturday afternoon. Saturday night will be quite cold, with many areas falling into the lower 30s and upper 20s. Thus, frost is possible, though lingering breezy conditions may limit its development. Nevertheless, our frost/freeze program has ended for the growing season as of October 11, and no frost or freeze headlines will be issued. KEY MESSAGE 3...Quiet and seasonable weather Sunday through Tuesday. A broad area of high pressure builds into the region Sunday through Tuesday, leading to a period of quiet and dry weather. The stronger winds from Saturday diminish on Sunday as the pressure gradient relaxes with the return of high pressure. During this time, temperatures begin to moderate and return to more seasonable levels, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s and overnight lows ranging from the upper 30s to middle 40s. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z TAF Update: Through 12z...High confidence. VFR. Gusts 20-25 kt for more eastern terminals through the rest of tonight. Sustained winds between 10-15 kt also expected, particularly for terminals that don't see gusts this morning. Thursday...High confidence. VFR. Brief period of gusty/high sustained winds possible across all terminals between 12z-15z before winds diminish through the rest of the day. Winds remain generally NNW, then shift more NE to E in the afternoon/early evening for coastal terminals. Thursday Night...Moderate confidence. Becoming MVFR to IFR with -SHRA moving in from west to east between 06Z and 12Z. S-SW winds develop with gusts nearing 20 kt closer to sunrise. Friday...Moderate confidence. IFR to LIFR with SHRA. Brief respite from SHRA possible in the afternoon hours, though low ceilings continue. Will need to monitor for the risk of some embedded TSRA and convective features. Gusty S to SW winds up to 30 kt with higher gusts possible near the coasts and higher elevations. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. SHRA, patchy BR. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. SHRA, patchy BR. Saturday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Small craft advisories were extended and/or hoisted for tonight for the eastern waters into 18z Thursday as a period of enhanced NW gusts of 25-30 kt are expected to develop early tonight. Seas around 3-5 ft on most waters through Thursday, with dry weather and good visibility expected. Gusts should subside below SCA criterion by Thursday night. A frontal system brings returning SW winds into the SCA range on Friday (25-30 kt), which will also bring periods of light to moderate rain reducing visibility through Friday early evening. A short period of small craft advisories will likely be needed once the existing SCAs expiring Thursday afternoon expire. Looking ahead into Friday night and into Saturday...a period of strong northwest winds are forecast. We've issued a Gale Watch on most waters for Friday night into Saturday, with seas becoming increasingly rough at up to 12 ft. Dry weather is expected by Saturday. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers, patchy fog. Friday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Rain showers likely. Saturday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Chance of rain showers. Saturday Night: Strong winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ230>234-250-251-254-255. Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-280>283. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dooley/Mensch AVIATION...Dooley/Hrencecin/Mensch MARINE...Loconto/Dooley/Mensch  143 FXUS62 KTAE 150521 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 121 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 118 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Above normal temperatures in the mid-80s to near 90 for this work week with little to no chance for rain expected. - Marine conditions will quickly deteriorate on Friday night following passage of a sharp cold front with an increasing potential for gale-force wind gusts this weekend. && .SHORT TERM & LONG TERM... (This Evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 High pressure both at the surface and aloft will keep conditions dry but also a bit toasty through much of the week with high temperatures forecast in the mid 80s to near 90 through Friday. Late Friday and Friday night, a fairly strong cold front is forecast to rapidly push southeastward through the area, ushering in a drier and cooler air mass in its wake. Dry conditions persisting ahead of the front will preclude any precipitation developing except perhaps over the Gulf waters. High temperatures are forecast in the 70s across the area on Saturday with low temperatures in the low 50s to near 60 overnight Saturday night. The gradient will remain fairly tight in the wake of the front as well, leading to breezy conditions remaining over the weekend and into next week. As winds become more easterly Sunday and beyond, a slow but gradual warming and moistening trend is forecast to take hold. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 118 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Areas of fog expected to develop within the Suwanee Valley overnight possibly reaching VLD before sunrise and kept tempo IFR vsbys here 9-13Z. Also, patchy fog may develop north of the Panhandle coast towards dawn with ECP falling to MVFR. After dawn, conds will return to VFR at all sites through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will be light to calm overnight, becoming east to east-southeast during the day then calm once again after 00Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Tranquil boating conditions expected into Friday with daily sea breezes. On Friday night, a cold front will blast across the waters, ushering in a sharp increase in fresh to strong northerly breezes with near gale to gale-force wind gusts. Winds are expected to remain elevated into next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Fair dispersions are expected again Thursday before dramatically increasing on Friday ahead of a strong cold front. Dry conditions are expected to continue with minRH percentage values in the mid-30s to mid 40s. Light transport winds of 5-10 mph generally out of the east can be expected through Thursday, then clocking around to the west and increasing on Friday ahead of a cold front. A strong cold frontal passage is expected Friday night, with breezy conditions to follow this weekend. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to around 90 through Friday, the decreasing to the 70s this weekend. No rainfall is expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 With the recent rainfall, several rivers are observed/forecast in action stage. The Choctawhatchee River at Bruce may eventually go into minor flood, but confidence is a bit on the lower side for now. No additional rainfall or flooding is expected over the upcoming week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 66 88 63 73 / 0 10 0 10 Panama City 68 85 62 72 / 0 0 10 10 Dothan64 85 56 70 / 0 0 10 0 Albany 64 87 58 71 / 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 66 87 63 73 / 0 10 10 10 Cross City 69 88 68 76 / 0 20 20 10 Apalachicola 70 83 66 73 / 10 10 10 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Merrifield LONG TERM....Merrifield AVIATION...Scholl MARINE...Merrifield FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield HYDROLOGY...Merrifield  194 FXUS63 KMKX 150523 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1223 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread rain will spread into southern WI by this afternoon. Lightning is not likely, but possible. - Increasing northwest winds gusting 30-40 mph Friday especially along the lakeshore, with higher gale force conditions likely over Lake Michigan. - Colder end to the week with overnight temps trending to around freezing for Friday night into Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1222 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Overnight through Friday: The satellite is showing widespread lower clouds across most of southern WI, with potentially a few holes along the lakeshore at times. With the low level moisture on the northeast/east flow persisting through the night, expect the low clouds to remain in place as well. The clouds and steady breeze will keep temperatures in check tonight, although lows will be in the upper 40s to around 50. A plume of moisture will ride up into southern WI on a stiff low level jet today. This is coincident with the right entrance region of a strong upper jet and a mid level shortwave trough. Meanwhile a stronger mid level trough over southern Manitoba will amplify over the Dakotas and slide into MN this evening. This will help with cyclogenesis of the surface low tracking from MO to lower MI. We can expect rain to spread into southern WI mid to late morning. It will be fairly steady on breezy easterly winds. While a couple lightning strikes are not impossible this afternoon along the 850mb warm front over southern WI, lightning is not likely due to limited instability. Most of the precip will fall this afternoon with a 60% chance of exceeding a half inch within those 6 hours (HREF and REFS probs). The rain will become lighter and more showery after the low passes and winds become westerly after the low exits this evening. We will see an increase in the winds with gusts up to 25-30 mph early Friday due to the strong cold air advection, cyclogenesis and pressure gradient. Blustery northwest winds are expected all day Friday. The peak gusts should be later in the day and into Friday evening as the strong and amplified upper trough passes overhead. The 850mb temps will dive into the single digits below zero during this time. Then northerly winds will gradually diminish Friday evening. There should be a weak enough pressure gradient as high pressure noses into south central WI Friday night to allow for decoupling and therefore a sharp drop in temperatures. The low is expected to be at or below freezing by early Saturday morning. Frost/freeze headlines will likely be needed. Cronce && .LONG TERM... Issued 1222 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Saturday through Wednesday: Temperatures will quickly recover on Saturday as the low exits and strong high pressure sets up over the Midwest. Yet another surface trough developing in the Northern Plains will keep our pressure gradient tight over WI on Sat, so expect breezy southwest winds (but only to around 20 mph) and highs recovering into the mid to upper 50s. Breezy southwest winds will continue Sunday and highs should manage to reach 60. The warm-up will continue through Thursday as we largely remain in southerly flow. Highs will be in the 60s, but get up to around 70 by later in the week. The weather will remain largely dry from Saturday through Thursday. There is one weak shortwave that cold bring a period of clouds and a few sprinkles on Monday. Cronce && .AVIATION... Issued 1222 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Clouds with bases around 3500 ft are expected to lower to MVFR through the night. Expect lowering ceilings to IFR (and potentially LIFR) by early this afternoon as steadier rain overspreads southern WI on easterly winds as low pressure tracks across northern IL. The rain will become lighter as winds switch to the north- northwest this evening. Visibility with the rain this afternoon should be reduced to around 3SM with the assistance of some patchy fog. Cronce && .MARINE... Issued 1222 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Winds will gradually become easterly overnight into late morning as high pressure around 30.3 inches slides through the region. The stronger winds are expected across the southern half of the lake during this time. Low pressure will deepen to around 29.5 inches as it shifts into the eastern Great Lakes later today through Friday. Expect a northwesterly wind shift to ramp up and increase to gales and nearing storm force at times Friday, on the backside of the departing low pressure while a strong high pressure around 30.7 inches builds to the west. Thus will maintain a Gale Watch for all the open waters of Lake Michigan Friday morning into Friday night. As the high sinks toward the Ohio River Valley on Saturday, strong low pressure around 29.1 inches will develop in northern Manitoba. The tight pressure gradient may bring southwest gales to Lake Michigan on Sunday. Cronce && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 PM Thursday. Gale Watch...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...10 AM Friday to 10 PM Friday. Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643...7 AM Thursday to 4 PM Thursday. Gale Watch...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868- LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...10 AM Friday to 1 AM Saturday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  197 FXUS64 KLZK 150523 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1223 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Above normal to near record temperatures will continue through the next few afternoons. - Wednesday afternoon heat index values will near or possibly 100 degrees. - Scattered showers possible across the northwest half of the state Wednesday afternoon. - Another round of elevated to critical wildfire danger will be possible on Friday. - Much cooler temperatures expected by this weekend, including possible frost conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Recent objective analysis depicted a 30 to 40 kt SWrly H850 LLJ positioned acrs the Ozark Plateau. Regional mosaic radar imgry also revealed incrsg covg of elevated precip asctd w/ wrm advection over NErn OK and SWrn MO, ahead of an advancing convective complex fm SErn KS, w/ 00Z HREF/REFS solns suggesting the leading edge of this complex wl be moving acrs NWrn to Nrn AR near 12Z Wed mrng. There is still some uncertainty regarding how far south precip activity will reach thru Wed aftn, and this wl mainly depend on the resultant outflow strength. Latest hi-res QPF guidance suggests a swath of one to two inches across far NWrn AR, w/ isolated amounts near one inch extending Ewrd over the Boston Mountains into Cntrl AR. Elsewhere, minimal rainfall, under one quarter inch, is expected, w/ a sharp cutoff to no accumulations towards SErn AR. Where rainfall and asctd thicker cloud cover does not occur, mainly the Srn half of the state, above normal to near record temperatures will persist again on Wed, while relatively cooler temps in the upper 80s wl be seen acrs NWrn to Nrn AR. Thurs thru Fri, a progressive shortwave trof is progged to quickly dig Swrd into the Midwest and Great Lakes region, w/ an asctd sfc pressure dipole quickly amplifying over the CONUS, e.g., strengthening cyclonic sfc flow moving NEwrd thru the Ohio River Valley w/ incrsg divergence aloft, and a strong trailing Continental Canadian high pressure system moving Swrd thru the Nrn to Cntrl PLains. Per the latest 00Z guidance, timing remains consistent w/ the cdfrnt moving into NWrn AR thru the overnight PD Thurs night, and quickly sweeping acrs the state Fri mrng to early aftn. Low chance PoPs wl persist along and ahead of the approaching frnt initially over NWrn AR thru Thurs night, but wl taper off quickly thru the day Fri as the cdfrnt pushes through, ushering in significantly drier air. With no appreciable precip expected, another bout of elevated to near critical wildfire danger will be seen acrs Ern to SErn AR Fri aftn as this frnt moves through. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph, and gusts of 25 to 35 mph are fcst, alongside min aftn RH values at or below 35 percent, and ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile. Concerning weekend low temperatures, morning lows in the low 40s, and isolated upper 30s remain possible acrs portions of Nrn AR Sat and particularly Sun mrngs, w/ latest NBM 25th percentile guidance only highlights some isolated regions in the upper 30s acrs Nrn AR on Sun mrng. Into early next week, aforementioned sfc high pressure wl begin to drift Ewrd, w/ Srly sfc flow resuming, and area temperatures trending upwards once again. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Recent sfc obs acrs Nrn AR indicated MVFR to IFR CIGs and VISBYs. Expect this activity to be intermittent at times, w/ Nrn terminal condns improving to MVFR levels by 15/10Z, and VFR levels by late Thurs mrng. Some additional precip wl be possible acrs Wrn to NWrn AR thru early Thurs mrng. Elsewhere, VFR condns are fcst, w/ ocsnlmid lvl cloud covg. Variable winds overnight wl become SWrly, w/ some gusty condns possible. Late in the PD... after 00Z Thurs night... a strong cdfrnt wl begin to move thru the FA, w/ strong NWrly winds ensuing. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 91 56 66 44 / 10 10 10 0 Camden AR 93 61 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 87 48 60 41 / 40 80 0 0 Hot Springs AR 91 58 69 45 / 0 0 10 0 Little Rock AR 92 62 70 46 / 0 0 10 0 Monticello AR 92 64 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 90 51 67 42 / 0 10 10 0 Mountain Home AR 88 51 61 43 / 30 70 0 0 Newport AR 92 60 68 46 / 0 10 10 0 Pine Bluff AR 93 61 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 92 55 67 44 / 10 40 0 0 Searcy AR 92 59 69 44 / 0 0 10 0 Stuttgart AR 94 63 72 46 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...72 AVIATION...72  295 FXUS63 KDLH 150525 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1225 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances return tomorrow, with Wisconsin expected to get between a tenth and quarter inch. Winds and gales are expected with this system. - Dry, warm conditions return on Saturday into early next week. - Next chance for precipitation will be mid to next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 For the rest of this afternoon, lingering stratus clouds will slowly scatter across the Northland, leaving behind calm and quiet conditions. Cloud cover will increase again tonight across the area. Opted to increase low temperatures for tonight compared to guidance due to higher cloud cover limiting heat release overnight, with readings staying in the lower to mid 30s rather than dipping into the 20s. An upper-level cutoff low over the Four Corners will phase into an incoming trough from the Canadian Prairies on Thursday, leading to a surface low moving across Wisconsin into the Great Lakes. Rainfall will develop along a frontogenesis band Thursday morning and spread across the area through the afternoon. Rain chances will be highest across northwest Wisconsin, where a tenth to a quarter inch of rain is expected. Low temperatures in the mid 30s are also anticipated for tomorrow night due to higher cloud cover. A large trough will bring rain chances and cool air close behind for the late week. Precipitation along and wrap around precipitation behind the front will keep rain chances going for Thursday night into Friday morning. There is no snow currently in the latest forecast for early Friday morning, but a few flakes falling with light rain is still possible across the Arrowhead and south shore. Strong northwest winds will surge behind the boundary late Thursday night into Friday, gusting 25 to 35 mph across the Northland, with gusts up to 45 mph near Lake Superior before diminishing Friday afternoon. High pressure builds across the Upper Midwest Friday night into Saturday, setting the stage for very dry air to overspread the region. Forecasters are still looking at relative humidity as low as 25 percent for Saturday. Winds are expected to increase in the afternoon, but timing will depend on the speed of a warm front moving through. The combination of gusty southwest winds reaching 20 to 30 mph and the dry air mass could lead to near-critical to critical fire weather conditions on Saturday. An upper-level shortwave will pass north of the international border on Sunday, dragging a mostly dry cold front through our region with passing clouds. Heading into early next week, upper-level ridging will become the predominant pattern driver across the Great Lakes. This will maintain dry, mostly clear, and mild conditions through Monday and Tuesday. While a couple of weak shortwaves may attempt to bring a stray shower next week, dry weather is favored to dominate. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 MVFR stratus still envelopes much of the region this evening with a small clearing from BRD to HYR. However, cloud cover is already starting to fill in over this clearing. Rain is expected to enter from the west by late morning and spread east through the remainder of the TAF period. HYR will see the most steady state rain with areas west and north getting a glancing blow before showers become more scattered in nature through the evening hours. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Light winds and waves around 1 foot will prevail through tonight before winds turn southwesterly Thursday. A cold front crossing the lake Thursday night into Friday brings a sharp wind switch to the northwest with gales to around 40 knots. Waves will build to 4 to 6 feet, occasionally reaching 8 feet, with outer Apostle Islands waves reaching 5 to 8 feet and occasionally 10 feet. A Gale Watch is in effect for all nearshore zones from late Thursday night through Friday morning. Winds diminish Friday evening, but strong southwest winds will increase again on Saturday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Calm and moist conditions will persist through Thursday as rain chances spread across the area. After the cold front passes, northwest winds will strengthen Friday morning, ushering in drier air with minimum afternoon relative humidity between 30 and 40 percent and gusts of 15 to 20 mph. Fire weather concerns peak on Saturday as afternoon relative humidity drops to 25 to 35 percent and southwest winds gust 20 to 30 mph. Wind timing will depend on the speed of a warm front moving through on Saturday. Afterwards, mild, dry weather continues into next week. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for LSZ121-140>148-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...KML AVIATION...Britt MARINE...KML FIRE WEATHER...KML  262 FXUS66 KOTX 150524 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1024 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather pattern through middle of next week. - Temperatures trend warmer through Friday, peaking in the mid 60s to mid 70s. - A cold front on Saturday will bring breezy to locally windy conditions and the potential for patchy blowing dust. && .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions and light winds remain in the forecast through the end of the workweek with a ridge of high pressure positioned over the region. Temperatures trend warmer each day, peaking in the mid 60s to mid 70s on Friday. On Saturday breezy to windy conditions will occur, before lighter winds and seasonal temperatures to follow Sunday into the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Friday: A dry weather pattern will dominate through Friday as an upper ridge builds over the region. The building ridge will allow for a gradual warming trend with high temperatures peaking on Friday in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Saturday and Sunday: The ridge flattens on Saturday as a quick moving cold front sweeps across the region. A combination of swift westerly flow, and the bulk of the moisture with this front in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere, will keep precipitation focused near the Cascade crest with dry weather for Central and Eastern Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. The cold front will result in breezy to locally windy conditions across the region especially the typical spots such as the East Slopes of the Cascades, Columbia Basin, West Plains, and Palouse. The NBM is carrying a 60-90 percent chance of wind gusts exceeding 30 MPH in these areas, with a 50-60 percent chance of gusts exceeding 40 MPH on the Waterville Plateau. Given the dry soils in the Columbia Basin can not rule out patchy blowing dust with the winds on Saturday. On Sunday as this front exits dry weather and light winds return. Cooler and drier air behind the front will allow for colder overnight lows Saturday Night, although typical for mid-October with readings mainly in the 30s. Monday through Wednesday: The next system approaches the region but then slides south of the region into California. Ensembles have come into good agreement with this idea with NBM now only carrying a 5-10 percent chance of showers for early next week. High temperatures also show little day to day change with readings in the upper 50s to mid 60s with is close to normal for this time of year. JW && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with just a few passing high clouds through 06z Friday. Strengthening high pressure in the lee of the Rockies in NW Montana will lead to increasing easterly flow into Thursday morning, starting the earliest at KPUW prior to 12z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions through 00Z Friday for all TAF sites. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 37 65 39 70 43 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 37 65 38 68 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 37 65 40 69 43 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 40 67 41 73 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 33 67 32 68 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 34 63 35 65 38 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 37 64 38 69 41 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 37 71 39 69 38 69 / 0 0 00 0 0 Wenatchee 47 69 45 68 48 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 41 69 39 68 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$  316 FXUS62 KMFL 150525 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 125 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 122 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Scattered showers and storms today will focus mainly across Southwest Florida this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered activity expected for Southeast Florida mainly late morning through midday. - Moderate to Major HeatRisk is forecast across the region for the end of this week with maximum heat index values in the 100-105F range. - The evolution of a frontal boundary will dictate our local weather this upcoming weekend. Confidence continues to increase for a forecast of windy and wet conditions for South Florida. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 For the end of this week, surface high pressure will be set up over the western Atlantic to end the week along with a mid-level ridge propagating from the southeastern US to the offshore western Atlantic waters. This will occur in tandem with a synoptic scale trough amplifying across the central US. As a result of the mid- level high shifting further east, low-level and mid-level flow will shift southerly/southeasterly and usher in deeper tropical moisture (PWATs around 1.8-2 inches or slightly more) and provide ample moisture for the production of diurnal showers and thunderstorms. With the surface high pressure over the western Atlantic setting up an easterly wind regime across the area, the most widespread showers and storms should focus across SW Florida as the Gulf breeze gets pinned, while some isolated to scattered showers and storms form over the east coast metro areas mainly between late morning and midday. Some storms may contain stronger wind gusts and periods of heavy rainfall, but overall parameters are lacking in terms of strong convection potential as well as low flooding risk. However, an isolated occurrence of poor drainage urban flooding cannot be entirely ruled out. Flow will shift a little more southeasterly on Friday as the trough over the central US begins to advect towards the northeast US and pushes the ridge over the Southeast offshore. This southerly flow pattern will support ongoing deep moisture advection, and with low level out of a SE/ESE direction, the focus for showers and storms on Friday will be across both interior and SW Florida, and perhaps stretching into Palm Beach county with PoPs in these areas in the 70- 85% range. Flow will be a bit weaker on Friday compared to Thursday, so there will be a higher risk for flooding impacts on Friday. High temperatures for the end of this week will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Elevated moisture will keep dew points and corresponding heat index values elevated in the 100-105F range as well, posing moderate to major HeatRisk across the region as we typically don't see this level of heat this late in the season. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Moving into the weekend, the speed of a propagating frontal boundary off of the trough that is swinging across the central and eastern US will be a big player in the amount of rainfall that we may see over the weekend. Ensembles plus much of the deterministic guidance are generally coming together at this point with the front pushing into central and perhaps the northernmost portions of the South Florida forecast area Saturday evening and overnight into Sunday. The steadiest rain would be expected directly ahead of the front, leading to the most widespread rainfall likely to occur on Saturday before the front pushes out the deeper moisture from portions of the region. Potential rainfall amounts are still heavily uncertain, but the latest 90th percentile 24-hour QPF is between 2-4" for Saturday and lower for Sunday, suggesting that even in a worst case scenario we may only need to be concerned for localized flooding. Nevertheless, we still need another day or two to get a more accurate perception of how much rain is possible in different time spans this weekend. Following the front stalling out late this weekend and into early next week, there is better agreement across the ensemble guidance that a steep pressure gradient will set up over the entire state of Florida, bringing with it a jump in easterly winds. The exact timing of the onset of winds here will be tied to the speed and direction of the high pressure system building behind the front which is not completely resolved yet, but less widespread rain is expected as we move into next week and extending into the middle of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR continues for the rest of the night and the early morning hours with E/ENE winds around 7-10 kts lingering overnight. Some scattered SHRA and isolated TS is possible early this morning across the east coast, with another round of scattered SHRA/TS expected between 13- 20Z before shifting to the west coast late in the day. A few periods of brief light restrictions will be possible due to the scattered shower and storm coverage. && .MARINE... Issued at 122 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Gentle to moderate easterly winds are expected across the local waters for the end of this week. Winds will shift to the north/north- northeast and become strong over the weekend as frontal boundary approaches from the north. This will coincide with some northeasterly swell arriving. Seas to end the week will be generally in the 2-3 feet range. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible each day as well, which can result in locally hazardous winds and elevated seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 89 79 90 77 / 20 20 30 20 West Kendall 90 78 90 76 / 20 20 40 20 Opa-Locka 90 79 90 77 / 20 20 40 20 Homestead 90 78 90 77 / 20 20 30 20 Fort Lauderdale 88 79 89 77 / 20 20 40 30 N Ft Lauderdale 89 79 89 77 / 30 20 40 30 Pembroke Pines 89 78 90 77 / 20 20 40 20 West Palm Beach 89 78 89 76 / 50 30 50 30 Boca Raton 88 79 89 77 / 40 30 40 30 Naples 91 75 89 75 / 50 30 60 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...Redman  398 FXUS63 KGID 150527 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1227 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... - This evening starts out with a mix of dry conditions in the wake of earlier showers (especially north half of our forecast area) and at least patchy light drizzle (mainly south half of our area). - Starting mainly after 10 PM, more widespread measurable rain in the form of showers and perhaps a few weak thunderstorms will steadily spread SW to NE through our entire area, with fairly constant rain (or at least drizzle when it's not actively raining) lasting through Thursday morning. Widespread rain amounts of at least 0.40-0.80" are likely nearly our entire area, with much more localized heavier amounts up to ~ 1.50" possible here or there. - The coolest air of the fall, thus far, along with the first widespread frost of the season remains on tap for the Friday night into Saturday morning time-frame, with some scattered below freezing temperatures increasingly likely - especially in our typically coolest spots (such as Ord). - Dry conditions and moderating temperatures from 60s into the 70s expected will provide several days of gorgeous fall weather this weekend through early next week. - Our next (and still very "iffy") chance for rain does not arrive until next Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Clouds, scattered showers, and a few embedded thunderstorms have been on the increase from S to N today. Most areas won't see sunshine again until Friday AM. The initial wave of rain today is scattered, but there are some embedded heavier cores with a few rumbles of thunder. Latest guidance lifts this activity S to N through the remainder of the day, with perhaps some weakening with northern extent/time. A much larger, and more persistent, shield of light to moderate rain (and again, a few embedded weak thunderstorms) will spread SW to NE across the entire region late tonight, and continue through most, if not all, of the morning hours Thursday. Not much change to expected rainfall amounts as both the latest HREF and EPS are in good agreement. Most areas will receive around 0.25" to 0.75". Very isolated higher amounts up to 1.5" will be possible, but this will be more of the exception than the rule. Coverage and intensity will taper off from SW/S to NE/N Thursday afternoon. Most areas should be done with rain by around sunset Thursday, though a few sprinkles/very light showers could linger along the Hwy 81 corridor a couple hours longer. North winds will be a bit breezy on Thursday as the entire system lifts through the Plains and into the Upper Midwest - so even when it's not raining, its going to feel quite chilly and raw. High temperatures will only be in the 50s, but it could feel like mid to upper 40s at times with the breeze. Despite clearing skies Thursday night, not expecting frost due to breezy conditions persisting all night. Strongest high pressure of the fall season thus far will ooze into the region on Friday. This will gradually lower wind speeds on Friday, but temperatures will remain seasonably cool only in the 50s. The cool daytime, in conjunction with clear skies, weak winds along sfc ridge axis, and recent moisture will likely set the stage for widespread (perhaps significant/thick) frost Friday night into Saturday morning. Return flow will be on the increase towards dawn over the far W/NW, but damage may already be done in these areas by then. Forecast has been cooling slightly with each and every cycle, and now all but far SE zones are forecast to dip to, or just below, freezing Sat AM. As such, will likely by issuing frost/freeze headlines within the next 12-18 hours for this threat. Temperatures will warm nicely Saturday afternoon in the dry autumn airmass...and expect further moderation to temperatures Sunday into early next week. In fact, upper 60s to upper 70s are forecast each day Sunday through Wednesday next week, with our KS zones possibly even touching the low 80s late in the period. May have another period of patchy frost to contend with Saturday night, but a steady southerly breeze should prevent another round of widespread/thick frost...and lows only warm further from there next several days. So those looking to extend the growing season should be able to get at least another week, provided protective measures are taken Fri night-Sat AM. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Generally poor conditions will continue through the overnight hours with IFR/LIFR CIGS and MVFR VSBYS as continued -SHRAs and some light BR are observed at both terminals. Winds should remain fairly steady and less than 10 KTS from the NE over the next few hours, before increasing and becoming gusty behind a cold front Friday afternoon. Winds will likely gust to near 30KT by 15/18Z...with MVFR CIGS prevailing through around 15/23Z...when model show a sharp cut off in cloud cover behind the approaching front. While VFR conditions will likely return tomorrow evening, winds will remain elevated through the overnight hours, with sustained winds continuing over 20KTs with occasional gusts to 30KTs+. Considered some marginal LLWS overnight (aft 16/04Z), but with surface winds remaining elevated, opted to not include as LLWS for the time being. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thies AVIATION...Rossi  396 FXUS63 KILX 150527 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1227 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The next efficient push of rain will come late tonight into early tomorrow morning as the front pushes back north as a warm front. The LPMM is showing some localized swaths of 1-3 inches of rain from 3am Thursday to 3am Friday on top of what has already fallen this morning. - Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanying a strong cold front tomorrow afternoon and evening. SPC has a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather, including a 5% damaging wind risk and 2% tornado risk, from about a Pittsfield to Gibson City line and south. - Wind gusts on Friday will be around 30-40 mph. The LREF shows a 40-70% chance of wind gusts greater than 35 mph west of I-57 Friday morning, with gusts relaxing after 1pm that afternoon. - Much cooler weather will settle into the region Friday through the weekend potentially resulting in areas of frost both Saturday and Sunday mornings. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 138 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 The cold front will continue to sag south of the forecast area this afternoon. Widely dry weather is in store for the remainder of the day across central and southeastern IL. Many people won't see significant relief from the warmer temperatures until after the system exits tomorrow night. There could be some light, scattered showers late this evening in the west, but the next efficient push of rain will come late tonight into early tomorrow morning as the front pushes back north as a warm front. The morning round of widespread rain could have some high rainfall rates at times and be a proficient rain producer. PWATs will be around 1.8-2.1 inches, which is high for the month of October. The average PWAT for October 15th is around 0.6-0.7 inches based off the SPC sounding climatology. The good news is that our soils can handle this rain decently since we have been so dry lately. The rain is welcomed. The LPMM is showing some localized swaths of 1-3 inches of rain from 08z Thursday to 08z Friday on top of what has already fallen this morning. A short period of dry weather will move in briefly early in the afternoon tomorrow before the trailing cold front races eastward. When the cold front advances east tomorrow afternoon/evening, a severe weather risk and additional rain will be accompanying it. Currently, SPC has a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather, including a 5% damaging wind risk and 2% tornado risk, from about a Pittsfield to Gibson City line and south. The environment looks supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms. Storm type looks like it may begin as discrete, supercells that will evolve into a multicell/QLCS mode as it exits to the east. How much of this primed environment we will achieve will be determined by if we can recover fully from the morning convection/rainfall. Timing of these storms seems to be ~20z-02z. After these storms exit to the east, additional showers and thunderstorms (not severe) could occur through Friday evening. After Friday afternoon, the forecast will be dry through the extended period. After the cold front pushes off to our east early Friday morning, cooler, more fall like temperatures will be ushered in for a few days. Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the upper 50s to low 60s, with lows in the mid to upper 30s. There is a chance for some patchy frost to develop across the northern half of the state Saturday morning and most of the state Sunday morning. How widespread the frost can get on Saturday morning will depend if the wind doesn't get too gusty. Beyond Sunday morning, temperatures will begin to warm back up to low 70s for highs on Monday, then to upper 70s by Wednesday nextweek. The pressure gradient with the passing low pressure system will tighten behind the cold front. Wind gusts on Friday will be around 30-40 mph, with the greatest wind gusts possible west of I-57. The LREF shows a 40-70% chance of wind gusts greater than 35 mph west of I-57 Friday morning, with gusts relaxing after 1pm that afternoon. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Ceilings are hovering in the 3,000 foot vicinity across central Illinois, but should solidly be below 2,000 feet by 12z. As Friday morning progresses, ceilings should deteriorate further as rain moves up from the southwest, and a period of IFR conditions is most likely at KPIA (40-70% chance) by late morning. Some modest improvement is expected later in the afternoon as a warm front lifts northward, with a brief period of VFR conditions possible from KSPI-KCMI toward 00z, but any improvement will be short lived as more low clouds follow the arrival of a cold front from the northwest in the evening. East/northeast winds are expected to become more southerly toward 18z as the warm front lifts through. Late in the period, expect west/northwest winds behind the cold front, with some gusts 20-25 knots from KBMI-KSPI west. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Copple DISCUSSION...Copple AVIATION...Geelhart  379 FXUS63 KTOP 150527 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1227 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - One more round of rain tonight into tomorrow morning. Additional amounts around or less than an inch for most. Some locally higher totals still possible towards Anderson County, where the Flood Watch remains in effect. - Much cooler and drier air arrives for Friday and the weekend. Frost/freeze potential Saturday morning across much of the area. - Trending milder again for early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Last night's convection has shunted the frontal boundary south of the area, with current surface obs placing it along a line from southeast KS into the TX Panhandle. Low stratus is locked in place north of the boundary, keeping temperatures nice and cool in the 50s to low 60s. Weak isentropic ascent is keeping some isolated showers and pockets of drizzle around, but rain coverage should be limited until the upper low begins to approach overnight. The heaviest rain still looks tied to a weak surface wave that will lift northeast across eastern KS. As mentioned yesterday, the extensive convection and heavy rain to our south over Oklahoma is often a setup that leads to a southward trend in QPF guidance. This appears to be such a case. Most guidance now keeps the strongest moisture advection and isentropic ascent - and thus the best chance for an additional 1-3 inches of rain - a bit to our southeast. Will keep Anderson County in the Flood Watch, especially since southern parts of the county saw a radar-estimated 2-3" of rain last night, but have trimmed out the rest of the watch. Elsewhere across the forecast area lesser amounts are expected, though the track of the upper low should still lead to widespread 0.25-0.5" amounts with pockets of slightly above 1". Temperatures tomorrow should rise into the 70s across east- central KS (south of wherever the surface low eventually tracks) but stay in the 60s to upper 50s elsewhere. The cold front trailing behind the surface low will pass through by Thursday evening, allowing temperatures and dewpoints to quickly drop overnight. Strong high pressure will push southeast across the Plains as a strong northern stream shortwave drops out of Canada and phases with the southern stream upper low. Strong CAA should keep Friday highs in the 50s. By Saturday morning, the high pressure will be nearly overhead. With strong radiational cooling amidst clear skies and light winds, temperatures should fall into the low/mid 30s area wide. The best chance at sub-freezing temperatures looks to be in favored low-lying areas north of Interstate 70. Will likely need Frost/Freeze headlines at some point, though will wait another day or so to figure out exact areas. After high pressure passes off to our east later Saturday, we'll see a gradual trend back to warmer temperatures as ridging builds back over the central/eastern CONUS. Expecting highs back in the 70s by Monday and Tuesday. Still can't rule out a brief shower sometime Monday with a weak shortwave passing through, but overall rain chances look low through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Messy TAF period expected with low cigs and -RA/DZ/BR reducing VSBY. Think LIFR/IFR conditions dominate the overnight hours as precipitation builds in. Chances for TS remain too low to include. Conditions may improve slightly in both VSBY and CIG by mid-morning, although coverage of rain and potential impact to VSBY is uncertain. Gradual improvement is expected during the afternoon and evening with winds becoming gusty from the northwest behind a cold front. Should see MVFR, potentially VFR, conditions by the end of this TAF period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through this afternoon for KSZ059. && $$ DISCUSSION...Reese AVIATION...Flanagan  346 FXUS66 KPDT 150526 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1026 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above average temperatures across the region on Friday with breezy conditions in the Blue Mountains and Grande Ronde Valley - Breezy conditions in the Columbia River Gorge and Kittitas Valley on Saturday - Chances for rain early next week. && .DISCUSSION... The weather today has been generally quiet with the only note being a band of light rain that has been moving through western portions of the CWA. That band of light rain has largely dissipated and visible satellite imagery shows clear to mostly clear skies moving into the region from the north. Mid-level water vapor imagery and upper air soundings show that an upper level ridge has started building into the region. Latest model guidance shows that ridging will be in place through Friday before a shortwave trough comes through the region. As a result, temperatures will increase throughout the week, with the hottest day being on Friday where temperatures will likely be in the mid 70s to low 80s for lower elevations and in the low 60s to low 70s in higher elevations, which is around 10-20 degrees above normal (90% confidence). Of additional note, models are still indicating that breezy conditions will likely set up in the Blue Mountains and the Grande Ronde Valley Friday morning (Confidence 80%). This is a result of a somewhat large pressure gradient setting up in the Blue Mountains. The Surface Pressure Gradient Tool developed by the SPC shows that the NAM and SREF have a pressure gradient of 4-7 mb between Baker City and Meacham. The mean wind gusts off the REFS shows wind gusts up to 45-50 mph in the Blue Mountains and 35-40 mph in the Grande Ronde valley on Friday morning. After Friday, model guidance shows that two systems will come through the region. The first is a shortwave trough that will move through the Northwest during the day Saturday into Sunday morning. Currently, rain associated with the system looks confined to the higher terrain in the Cascades. In addition, as the system comes through, the winds on Saturday should shift to being from the southwest. As a result, breezier conditions will likely (80% confidence) develop on Saturday mainly in areas with channeling effects (i.e. Columbia River Gorge and Kittitas Valley). Current NBM guidance suggests that the winds will remain below wind advisory criteria (wind gusts >45mph) with a probability of meeting advisory criteria of <10%. The second trough has more uncertainty with it but models bring it through early next week. This trough looks to be the next best chance of rain. The latest NBM suggests a 50% chance of receiving measurable rain (>0.01 in) in the Blue Mountains and a 0-25% chance in the lower elevations during the day on Tuesday. With that being said, this chance for rain has dropped substantially compared to a run of the NBM 24 hours ago, which had probs of 75% and 25-50% chance of measurable rain for the higher and lower elevations respectively. This change is due to a large shift in many of the models which causes the trough to dig farther south and form a cutoff over California. However, this system still has a large amount of uncertainty associated with it as illustrated by the LREF clusters. LREF cluster EOF's show that timing is the leading source of uncertainty within the ensemble but there is still some uncertainty regarding the amplitude of the trough. Should the deeper trough trend continue, most areas would see little to no rain, while if the models trend back north, there will be a larger chance for rain. Garty/26 && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are forecasted at all TAF sites through this period. Clear skies andlight winds about 9 kts or less are expected at all sites through the period as well. Ames/01/82 .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 64 36 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 65 41 69 41 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 67 34 71 36 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 65 39 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 66 36 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 62 35 67 37 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 66 27 69 30 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 63 31 68 34 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 64 33 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 70 41 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 38 69 38 74 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 40 69 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 37 72 36 70 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 43 70 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 39 70 38 71 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 40 67 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 31 75 33 79 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 36 70 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 36 75 36 76 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 46 74 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...26/71 AVIATION...01/82  773 FXUS63 KGRB 150533 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1233 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread rain arrives Thursday afternoon, and will continue at times through Friday. Expect most areas to see between 0.5 and 1" of total rainfall. - Northwest winds increase on Friday, with gusts between 35 and 45 mph possible. Gale force gusts expected across marine zones. - A widespread frost/freeze event is expected Friday night into early Saturday morning. - A warming trend and breezy southwest winds will bring daytime high temperatures back into the 60s late this weekend, with minimal rain chances through mid-week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Rain chances Thursday/Friday... Biggest change from previous forecast cycles centers around a noticeable jump in QPF amounts Thursday through Friday as models hone in on timing/evolution of the upper pattern. Signs still point toward phasing of northern and southern stream lows over the western Great Lakes Thursday night as a deepening surface low ejects from the central Plains. Jet energy ramps up during this time as moisture plume (near 99th percentile PWATs) interacts with mid-level FGEN in proximity to low pressure over southern Wisconsin. As such, probabilities for receiving one inch of QPF now stand at a widespread 30 to 60%. Thus expecting a soaking rainfall across most of northeast Wisconsin, which will be beneficial to areas across the north that have been in an extended period of drought. Stratiform rain then becomes more scattered in coverage on Friday, though wrap around moisture should keep at least light rain around for most of the day. Temperatures... Following a decent stretch of seasonable weather, cold FROPA and intrusion of arctic high will bring a brief spell of well below normal temperatures from the Plains to the Midwest on Friday. 850 mb temperatures plunge to around 2 to 5C below zero, which will translate to high temperatures reading in the mid 40s across the north to the mid 50s in the Fox Valley. Overnight lows will then fall into the mid 20s to low 30s inland of Lake Michigan, pointing toward a high confidence setup for frost/freeze under clearing skies and light winds. If trends hold, expect most areas to see a hard freeze that would effectively put an end to the growing season. Expect headlines to be forthcoming in the next day or so. Return flow then quickly sets up over the weekend, resulting in high temperatures rebounding into the 60s. Extended... High pressure looks to be the main driver of the synoptic pattern through at least the middle of next week, with no organized systems on the horizon. More active pattern looks to set up beyond then as upper flow re-amplifies, though details are few this far out. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 CIGS varied between 2,500 and 4,000 feet early this morning. CIGS will drop today into the IFR category as rain arrives by late morning or afternoon. Rain will continue tonight into Friday morning before coming to an end. CIGS should improve on Friday. The big story will be the strong northwest/north winds on Friday, with gusts between 30 and 35 knots expected across the region, with a few gusts to 40 knots across Door County and east-central WI. Winds will subside Friday evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Gradient winds on the back edge of the departing surface low ramp up Thursday night into Friday morning, putting us solidly within northwest flow and CAA regime. Deep daytime mixing will tap into 45 to 50 knot winds at 850 mb Friday afternoon, which will result in a brief window for gale force gusts over all marine zones through Friday evening. NBM probabilistic guidance continues to show a healthy signal (60 to 90%) for gusts exceeding 38 mph, highest along the Lake Michigan nearshore waters south of Kewaunee. Waves build 6 to 9 ft on the Lake and 3 to 6 ft on the Bay during this time, subsiding Friday night as winds shift to more westerly and the pressure gradient eases up. Gale Watches remain in effect. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Goodin AVIATION.......Eckberg MARINE.........Goodin  730 FXUS63 KIND 150532 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 132 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms today, with isolated severe storms capable of damaging winds this afternoon and evening - Strong post-frontal northwest winds will gust between 30 and 40 mph on Friday - Widespread frost and localized freeze conditions are likely Saturday night into Sunday morning && .DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)... Issued at 131 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Today through Friday. As of early this morning, the front that brought rain to central Indiana is south of the forecast area, but as the next low pressure system moves in from the Central Plains later this morning, that front is expected to push back to the north. Ahead of the boundary, poleward moisture advection characterized by an 850 mb low-level jet of 40-50 kt will lift surface dew points into the low-to-mid 60s, creating a short window in the mid to late afternoon hours where MLCAPE could reach 750 to 1250 J/kg along and south of the I-70 corridor by early afternoon. Kinematic fields are quite robust, with 500 mb mid-level flow around 50-60 kt yielding effective bulk shear of 45-55 kt. This deep-layer shear will favor organized multi-cell clusters and linear segments capable of bowing along with an increasing threat for a few discrete supercells late this afternoon into the evening. Low-level 0-1 km storm-relative helicity values of 100-150 m2/s2 will support an isolated brief spin-up along the warm front, but that threat will be conditional on the front location and extent of daytime warming. Thus the dominant convective hazard will be damaging straight-line downdraft winds up to 60 mph via momentum transport with the tornado threat being secondary. HREF ensemble members (HRRR, FV3, and ARW) depict initial convective development across west-central Indiana between 16Z and 18Z, progressing across the Indianapolis metro area between 19Z and 22Z, and exiting eastern counties by 01Z-02Z. QPF will average between 0.50 and 1.25 inches; localized training could produce minor nuisance ponding in poor drainage areas, but the progressive motion of the system will mitigate widespread flash flood concerns. The cold front will push southeast of the forecast area by 03Z, bringing an end to heavier precipitation with lingering light rain through the night. Cold air advection will ensue overnight as 850 mb temperatures plummet from +12C to near +1C by Friday afternoon. The tight pressure gradient between the departing surface low over eastern Canada and a Canadian high building into the Plains will generate efficient boundary-layer momentum transfer. Diurnal mixing into the 850-800 mb layer will tap into 35-40 kt ambient flow, supporting sustained northwest winds of 18-25 mph with frequent gusts of 35-40 mph Friday afternoon. Cyclonic flow and steep low- level lapse rates will foster an extensive stratocumulus deck, particularly across the northern two-thirds of the CWA. Highs on Friday will remain suppressed, ranging from the upper 50s north to the lower 60s south. Winds Friday night should keep frost formation limited even as temperatures drop into the mid to upper 30s, but sheltered areas could see some frost ahead of a widespread frost Saturday night. Saturday Through Wednesday. A broad longwave trough will anchor across the eastern CONUS on Saturday as a strong surface anticyclone shifts from the Upper Mississippi Valley southeastward across the Ohio Valley through Sunday. The core of the cold pool will sit overhead Saturday, keeping 850 mb temperatures around 0C to +2C. Despite clearing skies and subsidence, daytime highs on Saturday will struggle to reach out of the mid 50s, 10-15 degrees below normal.Saturday night into Sunday morning represents the primary frost and low-end freeze window of the period. The surface high center will settle directly over central Indiana by 09Z Sunday, decoupling the boundary layer and yielding calm winds, clear skies, and a very dry ambient air mass with dew points in the upper 20s to low 30s. Strong radiational cooling will cause overnight minimum temperatures to drop into the lower to mid-30s across the entire forecast area, with rural drainage basins and traditional cold spots likely dropping near freezing. Widespread frost is expected across central Indiana, and freeze conditions are probable in sheltered rural areas. Frost and freeze headlines will likely be required as confidence remains high across deterministic GFS, ECMWF, and their respective ensemble suites. The anticyclone will drift eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday, allowing insolation to rebound highs into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Lows Sunday night will remain cool, in the upper 30s to lower 40s, with patchy frost confined to far eastern rural valleys before low-level winds back to the south. For Monday through Wednesday, the synoptic pattern transitions as upper-level ridging builds over the eastern states and a deep trough carves out over the western CONUS. Steady south-southwesterly return flow will drive a significant warm air advection regime across the Ohio Valley. 850 mb temperatures will moderate to +10C to +13C, pushing daytime highs into the lower 70s on Monday and mid-70s on Tuesday. Overnight lows will moderate into the upper 40s to mid-50s. Medium-range guidance indicates an ejecting northern-stream shortwave trough will drag an associated surface cold front toward the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday. Moisture convergence ahead of this boundary will raise precipitable water values back above 1.25 inches, supporting chance to likely PoPs for rain showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms late Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon. Displaced upper-level dynamic support and marginal instability currently suggest a low probability of severe weather with this mid-week frontal passage. Temperatures on Wednesday will run in the upper 60s to lower 70s ahead of the front. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 131 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Impacts: - MVFR to IFR cigs are expected for much of this TAF period - Showers and storms likely this afternoon, confidence highest at HUF and BMG - Additional showers tonight - Wind shifts through the period Discussion: MVFR to briefly IFR cigs will continue through the overnight hours ahead of the next round of rain during the afternoon hours today. Confidence is highest in the 17Z to 00Z timeframe towards BMG and HUF where both brief gusty winds and lightning are possible. Elsewhere and throughout the remainder of the TAF period, lightning potential looks low. Vsbys should remain VFR outside of stronger showers and storms. Winds will vary through the period, northeasterly tonight, southerly tomorrow afternoon, and westerly during the evening. Outside of convection, westerly winds will occasionally gust up to 20kt tomorrow evening. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ AVIATION...White DISCUSSION...White  825 FXUS63 KMPX 150534 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1234 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler, more seasonable, temperatures through Friday with warmer above normal temperatures returning this weekend into next week. - Next chance for widespread rain on Thursday, most likely across southern Minnesota and western WI with chances decreasing to the northwest. - Widespread frost/freeze Friday night into Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 334 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 With a surface high limiting mechanical mixing and this mornings sounding at MPX showing a strong inversion, stratus has been slow to break up today. This has really limited temperature rises today, with most of the area seeing highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s, or 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Water vapor imagery and h5 analysis this afternoon shows us what our next concern is and that is the two waves heading our way. The northern stream wave is a shortwave coming across Alberta, with a southern stream wave in the form of an h5 low over the 4-corners. These two features will phase Thursday over the central CONUS, causing a surface low to deepen. This surface low will be a panhandle hook type system, with the southern stream wave driving a surface low from the TX panhandle to northern Illinois during the day on Thursday into Thursday night. There will be a healthy deformation band of precip to the northwest of the low track, with the heaviest precip falling across Iowa into southern WI. Still, the northern edge of this precipitation shield will come into southern MN, which will setup the southeast to northwest gradient in rainfall amounts we're expecting. We've seen a slight uptick in precip amounts along that Albert Lea to Eau Claire line, with amounts up around 0.75" depicted on the REFS. This falls to around 0.25" in the Twin Cities, a couple hundredths in St. Cloud, and nothing at Alexandria (until Thursday night with the potential for wrap around precip in the strong CAA regime). Besides the rain, the northern stream will bring in some strong CAA Thursday night, with wind gusts upwards of 45mph out of the northwest possible out in our typical windy areas of west central through south central MN. Following this will come a quick blast of cooler air as a 1040mb high comes out of the Rockies. This will set us up for our coldest morning of the Fall so far on Saturday morning. This will be our first widespread freeze of the season outside of the core of the Twin Cities urban metro area. Even for the Twin Cities, this will likely be the first time the low drops below 40 this season. For a freeze, we're in the ballpark of the 90th percentile for a late freeze (so 90% of falls have seen a first freeze earlier than this). For MSP, the latest we've had our first sub-40 reading in the fall was October 17th back in 1931, which also happens to be the day Saturday falls on this year, so why lot tack on the latest first sub- 40 low of the Fall on to the latest 90 on record for this October. After Friday, we're back into ridging and mild southerly winds. In fact, the NBM has southerly winds of some variety remaining in place from Saturday through Wednesday. This will setup another stretch of very pleasant fall weather. H85 temperatures will be running up around +10C starting Sunday, with large swaths of the MPX area likely to see highs in the low to mid 70s starting Sunday and likely lasting through much of next week. As for the end of the week, models have been hinting at a stronger system moving across the central CONUS. It's still there, but to no surprise, we're seeing the models slowing down the demise of our ridge, with that next fropa and chances for more widespread precipitation now gettingpushed out toward next weekend (24th/25th). Given what we've had so far and the fact that the only sign of cold air this month is what we'll see Thursday night through Friday night, it's certainly looking more plausible that the warmest October on record could be in play this year. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 MVFR stratus will continue filling in over the entire forecast area within the next few hours ahead of our next system. Our next system will arrive from the southwest during this morning, with -RA/-SHRA expected from southwestern to central MN east into west-central WI. The rain will continue for several hours before exiting east for MN by evening and WI just before the end of the TAF period. At least MVFR conditions are expected with lowest cigs and visibilities (IFR/LIFR) likely from southern MN into west-central WI where moisture will be greatest. Cigs and cloud coverage will improve to at least MVFR for a few hours once the dry slot moves in on the backside of the rain. However, wrap-around moisture will begin to affect west-central MN by the end of the period, bringing another round of -SHRA and MVFR. Light/variable winds expected past sunrise until the surface low's circulation nears. Will see a general westerly to northwesterly wind shift as winds strengthen, maximizing Thursday evening. Strongest winds are expected in west-central MN where sustained values will range from 15-20 knots with gusts near 25 knots. KMSP...MVFR begins after 08z this morning as stratus spreads. -SHRA will begin around 15z with cigs falling to 700 feet. IFR expected from 17-00z when heaviest rain is most likely. A brief visit to VFR is most likely Thursday evening before wrap around moisture arrives from the north, bringing MVFR and another round of -SHRA. Northwesterly winds will increase this afternoon through tonight with gusts near 25 knots early Friday morning. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...Chc MVFR cigs early. Wind NNW 15-20G30kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G25kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G25kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MPG AVIATION...CTG  814 FXUS64 KLIX 150534 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1234 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1058 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through Friday, with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. - A strong cold front will move through late Friday and Friday night, bringing cooler and drier conditions of the weekend. Strong northerly winds behind the front will lead to hazardous marine conditions, with gale conditions possible. - Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible Saturday as gusty northeasterly winds combine with min RH values in the upper 20s and low 30s across the area. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Friday night) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 No changes to ongoing conditions today into Fri. But the cold front that is moving our way will begin to enter the area by noon Fri or shortly thereafter. Northerly winds will already be here before the front, so the only way to find it will be thermal and moisture gradient, and if you look at any model, that is easy to see. Winds and cooler temps will flood over the area as it moves through, but as usual for October, there won't be much in the way of sh/ts. The one thing that will occur will be at least a cloud line along the frontal axis and there is a very small possibility of one or two showers along this cloud line that won't amount to much. The high behind the front will move in over the top of it bridging itself with the high to the east of the front causing strong stability and quickly lowering chances of getting any rain with this system. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Saturday through Monday, high pressure will build over the area. Looking at the models, little to no rainfall is expected as a result. Temperatures will be gradually warming each day of the long term forecast. Highs will be in the mid 70s Saturday and then climb to the mid 80s by Monday afternoon. Conditions should feel more pleasant overall. Tuesday and Wednesday, some low rain chances return, but high pressure remains. Some popup showers will be possible during the afternoon hours both of these days, mainly south of I-10/12. Some lightning may occur as well, but the storms should be pretty suppressed overall. Temperatures will continue to be warmer than average with highs in the mid 80s. MSW && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Most terminals will fall into IFR and LIFR again this morning around sunrise and should slowly move back into VFR by mid to late morning. Cloud cover and winds may be able to keep FG from occurring tonight into Fri morning, but MVFR cigs/vis can't be ruled out. && .MARINE... Issued at 1058 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 High pressure will keep winds relatively calm through today. A strong cold front will move through late Friday and Friday night, bringing strong northerly winds and rapidly building seas. Small craft Advisory conditions are likely through the weekend, with gale conditions possible across portions of the offshore waters late Friday into Saturday. Winds will gradually turn easterly Sunday but remain elevated into early next week. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ529-531. MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT Thursday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ531. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....MSW AVIATION...TE MARINE...TE  918 FXUS62 KFFC 150536 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 136 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions will prevail through the next 7 days with temperatures warming to well above normal. - A strong cold front will bring noticeably cooler conditions and gusty winds this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 It's a beautiful afternoon out there with current temperature readings in the upper 70s to mid 80s areawide (low 70s in the mountains) under mostly sunny skies. Surface high pressure will remain just to our northeast resulting in mostly dry and warm temperatures across the forecast area through the short-term period (thru Thursday). Tonight temperatures will drop primarily in the 60s (upper 50s in the mountains) under mostly clear skies. Low-lying areas and mountain valleys may once again see some patchy fog lowering visibility early Thursday, but improvements are expected just after sunrise. Rinse and repeat forecast for Thursday, with daytime temperatures likely a tick warmer (1-2 deg) than today. && .LONG TERM... (Friday morning through next Tuesday) Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Well-above normal temperatures will persist for one more day to start the long term period. After beginning the morning with low temperatures in the low to mid 60s once again, highs on Friday afternoon are forecast to rise into the low to mid 80s in north Georgia and upper 80s in central Georgia. Over the course of the day, a strong low pressure system will move from the central Great Lakes towards the far northeast CONUS, advancing a strong cold front towards north Georgia. With little opportunity for deep moisture return ahead of this front, rain chances will be limited, with only some isolated showers in far north Georgia on Friday night. The front will quickly progress southward overnight, clearing the forecast area to the southeast by sunrise on Saturday. The big story for us is that a significantly cooler airmass will filter into the area in the wake of the front, giving us our first real taste of Fall for the year. Low temperatures on Saturday will be in the mid to upper 40s to the north of I-85 and in the 50s to the south. As cooler air becomes more established, afternoon highs will range from near 60 in the far northern tier to the low 70s in south-central Georgia. An upper level ridge will build over the eastern CONUS and the center of a strong surface high will move across the lower Midwest on Saturday night into Sunday. Strong radiational cooling under clear skies will lead to the coolest temperatures of the period early Sunday morning, with widespread 40s and even some upper 30s in the higher elevations of far northeast Georgia. As the surface high moves east of the Appalachians, a CAD wedge is forecast to keep highs limited to the low 60s in portions of northeast Georgia compared to mid to upper 60s elsewhere across the region. Breezy easterly winds will also be present within this wedge. A gradual warming trend will begin to start next week as the surface high moves into the west Atlantic and the aforementioned ridge becomes centered over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 135 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR through the TAF forecast with light west winds gradually becoming southwest after 16Z at 5kts or less. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... High on all elements. Vaughn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 62 86 52 66 / 0 0 10 10 Atlanta 65 84 52 65 / 0 0 10 10 Blairsville 59 80 43 61 / 0 0 10 10 Cartersville 62 85 47 65 / 0 0 10 0 Columbus 63 87 53 70 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 64 83 50 65 / 0 0 10 10 Macon 62 88 55 70 / 0 0 0 10 Rome 60 85 47 65 / 0 0 10 0 Peachtree City 61 86 49 67 / 0 0 10 0 Vidalia 64 86 62 70 / 0 0 0 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....King AVIATION...Vaughn  880 FXUS63 KARX 150535 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1235 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain expected across the entire area for much of the today with rainfall totals of around 1/2" to 1". No impacts are expected from this rainfall. - Breezy northwest winds with shower chances (30-50%) on Friday morning and afternoon. There is some potential for gusts to reach 45 mph, primarily west of the Mississippi River with ongoing showers. - Temperatures become much colder Friday night and Saturday morning with lows in the 20s to lower 30s. This may bring an end to the growing for some of the area, especially near and north of I-94 (60-90% chance for temperatures colder than 28 degrees). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Today: Rain Across Much of the Area Our next pair of synoptic features that will be responsible for widespread rainfall today can be noted on GOES-19 water vapor imagery and RAP 500mb heights as both an upper-level low situated over Colorado begins to phase with a northern stream upper- level trough moving into the northern Great Plains. As this occurs, much of deterministic guidance generally agrees on instigating surface cyclogenesis south of the local area at the exit region of this upper-level feature as it pivots through the region. Additionally, a fairly respectable plume of low- level moisture pushes just south of the local area with some increase in precipitable waters to around 1-1.5" this afternoon. Consequently, the recent HREF generally has respectable rainfall amounts with the inter-quartile range for QPF amounts across the region ranging from 0.5" to 1". As far as timing is concerned, much of the CAMs generally agree on bringing precipitation associated with this system into the region towards daybreak. As we head through the day, cannot rule out some weak convection south of I-90 where some weak MUCAPE is present in the RAP which may lead to some locally heavier rainfall amounts (higher percentiles of the HREF have some 1.5-2" amounts in Clayton and Grant Counties). Otherwise, the main cold front with this system swings through the region by mid-evening ending precipitation potential from west to east. Overall, should be a healthy rainfall event but not expecting much impacts from this rainfall. Friday: Breezy Conditions with Morning Showers Possible Behind the aforementioned cold front on Friday, the combination of an increasing surface pressure gradient and some mixing into a 40 kt low-level jet will allow for winds to increase to around 15-25 mph with gusts upwards of 35-45 mph, particularly west of the Mississippi River. While probabilities in the NBM are not overly high (10-30%) for wind gusts over 45 mph, some instability and steep low-level lapse rates are present in RAP soundings. As a result, this should allow for some showers to push through the region on Friday morning associated with the cyclonic flow of the upper-level trough overhead. Consequently, would not be surprised to see some local enhancement of winds as showers aid in momentum transferring down some stronger gusts to the surface where gusts reaching 45 mph would be possible. Friday Night - Saturday Morning: Frost/Freeze Likely By the time the nighttime hours roll around on Friday, the aforementioned surface pressure gradient begins to wane as surface high pressure begins to push into the local area. Consequently, expecting winds to decrease with clearing skies as well. Therefore, the setup looks fairly solid for an effective radiational cooling night across the region with the NBM having fairly high probabilities (60-100%) for lows to fall below freezing across the entire local area outside of river valley locations. As a result, Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings will likely be needed during this period. The highest probabilities (60-90%) in the NBM for a killing freeze with lows below 28 degrees will generally be near and north of I-94, with lower probabilities elsewhere (10-40%). This Weekend & Early Next Week: Dry, Gradually Warming Up As we head into the weekend and early next week, upper-level ridging will push into the region allowing for increasing southerly to southwesterly flow in the low-levels. As a result, expecting the advection of a modestly warmer airmass into the region during this period. Consequently, temperatures warm into the 60s by Sunday with highs even jumping back into the lower 70s as suggested in the median high temperatures fields of the NBM by early next week. Overall with the upper-level ridging overhead, not seeing much for precipitation chances in ensemble guidance as the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) has very low (under 10% chance) measurable precipitation probabilities this weekend through Tuesday of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 MVFR conditions across much of the region this evening will give way to IFR conditions during the morning hours as a disturbance brings widespread rainfall with accompanying decreasing cigs and vsbys. IFR to LIFR cigs will persist throughout the daytime hours with vsbys hovering around MVFR to IFR thresholds. Rain generally exits the region around 00z to 03z Friday with some improvement in cigs to MVFR possible, especially west of the Mississippi River. Otherwise, winds will generally begin the TAF period light and from the east but will shift to northwesterly and increase to around 10-15 kts late this afternoon and evening. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Naylor AVIATION...Naylor  942 FXUS63 KICT 150537 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1237 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Off-and-on showers/storms tonight, gradually exiting to the east Thursday. Pockets of heavy rainfall and localized flooding possible. - Much cooler air filtering south through Friday and Saturday, with lows Saturday morning falling into the 30s, and frost likely across mainly central KS. - Warming trend next week, with showers/thunderstorms possible once again by mid-late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 TODAY-THURSDAY: A cutoff low is lifting out of the four-corners region and into the Plains. Ahead of this feature, a surface low has developed over the Central Rockies. Continued rain and storms will impact portions of the forecast area, with the heaviest rainfall expected over south-central and southeastern Kansas where a Flood Watch remains in effect through 18Z Thursday. The heaviest precipitation chances will remain south of the forecast area along the surface boundary. The low pressure will traverse the state on Thursday with rain chances ending quickly behind it. Dense cloud cover will linger over the state today and Thursday, finally clearing on Thursday night from west to east. Under the thick stratus and on and off rain chances, temperatures will remain quite cool. Continued the trend of undercutting NBM highs as we have seem limited diurnal heating so far today. Temperatures today will generally reach into the 50s and 60s, with a couple of 70s in far southeast Kansas. There will be minimal variability in overnight temperatures, with lows generally in the 50s to lower 60s. Highs may be able to rebound slightly on Thursday with temperatures reaching into the 60s and low 70s. Breezy northwesterly winds will develop on Thursday afternoon, lasting into the overnight hours. FRIDAY-SATURDAY: High pressure will begin strengthening behind the exiting low to the east. The tightening pressure gradient across the Plains will lead to breezy conditions on Friday. Northerly to northwesterly winds between 20-25 mph are expected with gusts up to 35 mph possible. As this Canadian high builds into the region, crisp fall temperatures are expected for both Friday and Saturday. Highs each afternoon are expected to reach into the middle to upper 50s. Overnight lows for Friday night into Saturday morning are expected to fall into the 30s areawide as the high pressure is centered over the state. Light winds and clear skies will likely lead to frost concerns, especially in central Kansas. SUNDAY-NEXT WEEK: Ridging will begin to build into the region over the weekend with temperatures rebounding slightly by Sunday. Highs on Sunday will reach into the middle to upper 60s under mostly clear skies and light winds. On Sunday night into Monday, a weak impulse will eject over the Plains. It is unlikely that this system will carry with it enough moisture to overcome the anomalously dry air mass that will be in place to manufacture any rain chances. It looks like the most likely impacts will be slight increases in cloud cover. Temperatures will then continue to warm into early next week with near normal temperatures expected along with mostly clear conditions. At the tail end of the forecast period for mid next week, model guidance is indicating the development of another western US mid/upper level trough that could usher in additional rain chances. Significant uncertainty remains regarding timing and exact precip chances, we will continue to fine tune the details as we get closer. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 IFR to LIFR conditions will continue through much of the morning hours at all sites as occasional showers traverse central, south-central, and southeast KS. VSBY have remained MVFR or VFR through much of the precipitation this evening and that is the expectation as we continue through the overnight hours. Conditions will gradually improve to MVFR by early afternoon at most locations with VFR conditions returning near/after sunset this evening. Winds will shift from the northwest across central KS before sunrise and this afternoon across southeast KS. Gusts may approach 25 kt, especially late this afternoon. Upon sunset, wind speeds should relax some with a few gusts up to 20 kt remaining. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through this afternoon for KSZ069>072-082-083- 091>096-098>100. && $$ DISCUSSION...AMD AVIATION...BRB  012 FXUS64 KBMX 150538 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1238 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1236 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 - Record Highs: Temperatures will be well above normal this week, with medium to high chances of record high temperatures. - Fall Weather: A cold front will move through the region Friday into Saturday, bringing cooler temperatures and breezy conditions to the area for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Thursday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1153 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026 This evening we have a surface boundary extending from the TX Panhandle, to AR, and NEWD to MD. The W portions of this boundary will get pushed NWD as a warm front as we head into the day Thursday as a cold front develops on the lee of the Rockies and the associated low moves NEWD. By Friday morning this low is expected to have progressed to the Great Lakes and combined with another system pushing SEWD out of Central Canada. During Friday this system should get enough of a favorable push from the upper flow to move through C AL and finally allow fall to make its arrival in the area. There may be just enough moisture with the help of frontal forcing to allow for a few isolated showers Friday afternoon. No TS or heavy rain is anticipated. However, before that we still have Thu where we could see a few max temp records in jeopardy (see climate section), and Fri where max temps will still be above normal. Breezy and gusty at times NRLY winds should be felt Fri afternoon, that night and on into Saturday with tight surface pressure gradients behind the front. Cool readings with lows in the 40s for many on Fri night and for all Sat/Sun nights with highs generally in the 60s over the weekend. Our airmass should begin to moderate for next week as our flow becomes more ERLY, but overall still dry. 08 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026 Will continue the VFR (clear and calm) forecast for the next 24 hours. Some patchy fog may drift across the field at times at TCL or MGM (like the past couple mornings), but it should be fairly short-lived. /61/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and mainly dry conditions are expected to continue through the end of the week with MinRHs dropping into the low 30% range for many locations. A cold front will move through the area Friday into Saturday leading to gusty winds, minimal rainfall, and much drier and cooler conditions behind the front. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1125 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026 Record High Temperatures: Thu Oct. 15: KBHM: 90/1897 KEET: 92/2025 KANB: 87/1975 KTCL: 91/1962 KMGM: 92/1881 Fri Oct. 16: KBHM: 90/1897 KEET: 90/2025 KANB: 87/1965 KTCL: 90/1962 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 89 60 84 47 / 0 0 20 10 Anniston 89 62 84 48 / 0 0 20 10 Birmingham 89 64 84 48 / 0 0 20 10 Tuscaloosa 92 62 85 49 / 0 0 10 0 Calera 89 62 84 48 / 0 0 20 10 Auburn 88 63 84 51 / 0 0 20 10 Montgomery 89 63 86 52 / 0 0 20 10 Troy 88 62 85 51 / 0 0 20 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION.../61/  311 FXUS62 KJAX 150545 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 145 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Minor River Flooding Continues Along Lower Portions of the Satilla River - Patchy to Areas of Fog Early Thursday Morning. Locally Dense Fog at 1/4 mile possible through 9 AM - Local NorEaster Conditions Return this Weekend. Dangerous Surf Zone Conditions - High Risk for Rip Currents & Rough, High Surf. Small Craft Advisory, Potential Gusts to Gale Force Sunday into Monday. Minor Tidal Flooding Potential at Coast, ICW & St. Johns Basin. Extended duration minor flooding along St Johns River into next week possible && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights through Tonight: - Patchy to Areas of Fog, locally dense Surface high pressure will remain in place across the area Today. The combination of low level moisture from recent rains and light winds, will produce fog again early this morning. The fog may become locally dense. The high will weaken Tonight, as a front approaches from the northwest. Fog potential will exist again Tonight. Above average temperatures expected this period. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Potential for a few storms over north central FL Friday afternoon/evening -Coastal hazards begin late Friday night into Saturday with beginning stages of elevated water levels, high rip current risk, and rough surf and seas. - Northerly winds expected to gust to around 35 mph on Saturday and Saturday night, with a potential for gusts of 40 mph along the coastal areas of northeast FL, which would necessitate a wind advisory along the coast Big changes occur this period as a low level high pressure ridge over the region on Friday shifts quickly eastward while a cold front approaches from the northwest. The front will sweep south-southeast across the area Friday night. We expect warm conditions with southwest flow ahead of the front on Friday into Friday evening and sufficient instability will lead to a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms, mainly across northeast and north central FL, and parts of the coastal waters. Highs expected to be in the mid to upper 80s. Mild lows on Friday night in the 60s. Notable wind shift to the northwest expected late Friday night through early Saturday morning. By sunrise Saturday morning, the strong cold front may be just past our forecast area or laying right across Flagler, Putnam, and Marion counties. Scattered light rain areas expected Saturday, but rainfall amounts look pretty low at 0.05 inches or less. Further decreased rain chances Saturday night. Strong high pressure will build north of the area behind the front, with a blustery north across the area about 15-25 mph with gusts of about 35 mph. Expect breezy winds to continue Saturday night, but mainly at the coastal counties due to north- northeast trajectory off the Atlantic waters. Much cooler high temps on Saturday with substantial cloudiness with highs in the 70s and lows Saturday night in the 50s north zones to lower 60s southeast zones. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Coastal hazards including tidal flooding, gusty winds, elevated rip risk and surf expected from Sunday through Tuesday Strong high pressure will continue to be north of the area Sunday around 1037 mb across the Mid Atlantic states will shift east into the western Atlantic by Monday, providing for strong north-northeast flow for Sunday and Monday. This flow expected to bring a chance of showers for the coastal areasinto mid week. Brief downpours possible as moisture streams in off the ATlantic with POPs generally 20-50 percent for coastal zones, and diminishing further inland. Still looks like potential for wind gusts of 35-40 mph at the coast for Sunday and Monday, and gradually diminishing by Tuesday and Wednesday. The elevated onshore flow will bring coastal hazards such as tidal flooding, rip currents, high surf, and minor to moderate beach erosion. Winds will begin to taper off by midweek as the high pressure begins to weaken but a northeast flow will continue to prevail. Max temperatures will be well below average Sunday in the upper 60s north zones and lower to mid 70s south zones. Veering flow on Monday will start to bring max temps up a bit into the mid to upper 70s from Monday through mid week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure will prevail over area this 06z TAF period. VFR conditions are expected this evening, with fog developing overnight due to ample low level moisture. Restrictions due to fog are anticipated overnight into Thursday morning. VFR conditions are forecast from mid morning Thursday through Thursday evening. && .MARINE... High pressure will be over the area Today, then weaken Tonight into Friday. A cold front will move southeast across the area Friday night. Strong high pressure will build behind the front. A surge of winds will move south down the coastal waters behind the front, with elevated winds from Friday night through much of next week, with Gale force winds possible. Rip Currents: Low to Moderate risk through Friday. High risk of rip currents with rough surf from Saturday through much of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Patchy Low Daytime Dispersions Today - Patchy High Afternoon Dispersions Friday Through Monday High pressure remains over the area into Friday, with easterly winds persisting today. Southwesterly winds develop on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will push through the area by Friday night. Northeasterly winds develop this weekend behind the cold front as high pressure builds north of the area. Elevated winds are expected along the Atlantic coast of SE GA and NE FL beginning late Friday Night, with the elevated winds persisting into the upcoming week. This will bring chances of showers for coastal locations through the weekend and next week. Poor to Fair dispersions persist this afternoon. By Friday, Good to High dispersions develop over SE GA ahead of the frontal boundary, with Fair to good dispersions expected over NE FL. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Areas of dense fog is possible during the late night and early morning hours through Friday Morning. This will mainly be over inland areas and Dense Fog Advisories may be required. There is a low chance for thunderstorms over north central FL Friday afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Minor flooding will continue along lower portions of the Satilla River during the next several days. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Minor tidal flooding is possible along the Atlantic coast, ICWW, and St. Johns river basin this weekend, mainly Sunday, and early next week as strong northeasterly winds develop. Some significant beach erosion is possible by Sunday and through Tuesday, especially coastal northeast FL, as seas for the nearshore waters build to the 10-15 ft range through Monday night while southeast GA nearshore seas mainly in the 8-13 ft range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 88 65 86 63 / 0 0 0 10 SSI 83 70 85 68 / 0 0 0 10 JAX 86 67 88 68 / 0 0 20 20 SGJ 84 71 86 70 / 0 0 30 30 GNV 88 68 88 69 / 0 0 40 30 OCF 89 70 88 71 / 0 0 50 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$  468 FXUS62 KMLB 150547 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 147 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 208 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Rain chances gradually rise through the remainder of the work week, with slightly above normal high temperatures. - A wet and windy weekend is forecast behind a passing front, with conditions persisting into early next week. Wind Advisories are likely and flooding concerns return, especially along the southern coast. - Dangerous boating conditions, high surf, and up to moderate beach erosion are expected behind the front and into early next week. Residents and visitors should use caution near the beach and remain out of the water beginning this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Rest of Today-Tonight...Drier air lingers across the area today, with PWATs near 1". That, combined with subsidence aloft from high pressure across the Deep South has limited most shower development today. However, a few very isolated light showers embedded within the stratocu field have been noted on KMLB radar today. Thus, have maintained a low, 15-20%, PoP area-wide today. CAMs still suggest a few showers are possible this afternoon west of Orlando prior to sunset. Regardless, mostly dry conditions persist, though showers will be possible along the coast overnight. They may occasionally drift onshore, embedded within easterly flow. Warm highs in the mid to upper 80s will remain in the lower to mid-70s tonight. Coastal areas look to linger in the upper 70s with winds 5-10 mph from the east. Thursday-Friday...The ridge moves off of the Southeast coast tomorrow, then farther into the Atlantic Friday, as a trough digs through the northern US. This trough will then push a surface front into the central Florida peninsula Friday night. Onshore flow prevails through the period, increasing to 10-15 mph once again Thursday afternoon. However, winds remain overall light Friday, reaching only 10 mph along the coast behind the diffuse sea breeze. Moisture builds northward through the period, with scattered showers and storms (30-50%) forecast south of Melbourne in the afternoon. From around Orlando northward, drier conditions are forecast, though a low chance (20%) for coastal showers will linger overnight. PWATs near 2" will support increased coverage (60%) of showers and storms area-wide Friday, with a possible sea breeze collision over the far interior late. Overall, the threat for strong storms is low, with warm temperatures aloft -5 to -6 C, but a gust or two to 45 mph cannot be ruled out. Temperatures climb to slightly above normal, in the upper 80s to near 90 late week, as overnight lows remain in the 70s. Saturday-Tuesday...The surface front is forecast to reach south Florida Saturday morning. However, the mid-level trough looks to lag behind slightly, passing through central Florida through day. The front then looks to remain stalled in the vicinity of south Florida into early next week, as strong ridging builds over the eastern US, north of the Florida peninsula. A tight pressure gradient between the front and the ridge will lead to windy conditions rapidly developing from north to south Saturday, which linger through the weekend and into early next week. Daybreak to begin the weekend may even have generally light northerly flow. However, by Saturday afternoon, sustained NNE winds build to 15-25 mph and gusts to 25-35 mph. Winds only further increase into Sunday and Monday as they veer ENE, with winds 20-25 mph area-wide and gusts 30-40 mph. The highest winds are forecast along the coast, remaining breezy to windy overnight. Breezy conditions inland will become windy into the afternoon, with daytime heating. Needless to say, Wind Advisories are likely through the weekend and into early next week, with conditions persisting through the forecast period. With the front stalled across southern Florida, PWATs look to remain up to 1.6-2" south of Cape Canaveral. This, combined with stout onshore flow, will lead to multiple rounds of fast-moving showers moving into coastal areas. Portions of the southern coast are highlighted in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall (1/4) this weekend. The greatest threat looks to be along the Treasure Coast, where training bands of showers are likely. 90th percentile 48 hour rainfall accumulations of 3-5" are forecast for the Marginal Risk area Saturday into Sunday. However, portions of Martin and St Lucie Counties have a 25% chance of exceeding 4" during the same period. Thus, will need to monitor the threat for flooding, especially in areas that have seen recent heavy rainfall. PoPs 60-80% are forecast for the southern coast through early next week. Elsewhere, drier air filtering into the area will limit the heavy rainfall threat, with PoPs 20-50%. The threat for strong storms will be low due to warm temperatures aloft (-6 C at 500mb). Though showers or storms may locally enhance the already windy flow. High temperatures fall into the upper 70s to lower 80s through early next week, as lows fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s. This prolonged period of strong onshore flow will lead to dangerous beach and boating conditions. Gale- force wind gusts look to produce high surf, with breaking waves 9-12 ft. Multiple tidal cycles of high surf will also contribute to up to moderate beach erosion, especially north of Cape Canaveral. Residents and visitors should use caution near the beach and remain out of the water. && .MARINE... Issued at 208 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Rest of Today-Friday...Favorable boating conditions prevail through Friday, as high pressure persists across the local waters. ENE flow increases to 10-15 kts in the afternoons through Thursday, becoming lighter and a little more variable on Friday. Seas remain around 2-3 feet through the period. Isolated showers today increase in coverage through the end of the work week, becoming scattered and continuing during the overnights. Saturday-Monday (modified previous)...Boating conditions rapidly deteriorate into the weekend, becoming hazardous to dangerous as a front sweeps southward across the waters. N/NE winds rapidly increase through the day on Saturday to around 25-30 knots, with frequent gusts to gale force forecast. Winds quickly veer to the E/NE Saturday night and remain onshore through early next week, with at least a strong onshore breeze and frequent gusts to gale force continuing across the entire waters. Seas respond by quickly building to around 10-14 feet by Saturday night and remain around that height through early next week. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated to scattered storms will also persist across the waters, with this activity continuing to push toward the coast and onshore, especially along the Treasure Coast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 138 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Isolated showers over the Atlantic waters continues tonight, with a shower or two potentially making it to the coast from VRB southward through tonight. Light and variable winds tonight will become east and increase to near 10 KT by mid to late morning on Thursday. Rain chances increase across the south into Thursday morning. Have maintained VCSH from VRB southward after 12Z/14Z for rounds of isolated to scattered showers, and have added VCTS starting at 18Z for those terminals. Included VCSH at MLB starting at 18Z. Any lingering shower/storm activity should move out of dissipate after 01Z. Winds will then become light and variable once again Thursday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 86 73 87 71 / 10 10 40 20 MCO 90 74 90 74 / 10 10 60 20 MLB 87 76 88 73 / 20 20 60 40 VRB 88 75 89 72 / 30 30 60 40 LEE 90 73 89 72 / 0 0 60 20 SFB 89 73 90 73 / 10 10 60 20 ORL 89 74 90 74 / 10 10 60 20 FPR 88 75 88 72 / 40 30 60 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wishard AVIATION...Watson  486 FXUS63 KIWX 150547 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 147 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler conditions for tonight with a break in the greater rain shower coverage expected into Thursday morning. More showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday into Thursday night. - There is a Marginal Risk of severe storms (mainly wind) along and south of US Route 24 for Thursday evening. Confidence in severe weather is low. - Turning much cooler and windy for Friday with some lake effect rain showers expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Surface cold frontal boundary has cleared southern portions of the forecast area this afternoon. The low level baroclinic zone is not expected to make much more additional southward progress into this evening as broad upper troughing across southern Ontario/Great Lakes region pushes east allowing some induced short wave upper ridging to build into the region downstream of larger scale cut- off low. Some isolated showers are possible through late afternoon/early evening with weakening frontal zone across the south, but otherwise prospects for additional rainfall tonight look to be on the low side given southward frontal push and break in stronger short wave forcing. Water vapor this imagery this afternoon depicts two features that will be watched over the next 48 hours including a cut-off upper level low across SW CO and a more progressive vort max spilling down eastern side of western Canadian upper trough. Present indications still suggest a phasing of these features Thursday evening across the Corn Belt and Upper Midwest. Isentropic progs of 300-305K layer do indicate a rapid uptick in isentropic forcing toward late morning/midday. This evolution will allow the higher level theta-e air to return northward, particularly by Thursday evening. Showers with some embedded storms are expected to accompany this stronger advective push Thursday afternoon. Despite the strong advection, a strong low level inversion will develop in response and thus sensible warming at the surface likely to be more limited keeping highs in the 60s (possibly return of some low 70s late day/toward evening across the south). Severe weather is not expected during the day Thursday given weak mid/upper level forcing outside of the strong advective forcing and due to the elevated nature of the instability. For Thursday night, the aforementioned upstream facing should begin to induce cyclogenesis of associated low pressure, however some subtle but important trends in guidance have been noted. A subtle trend of slightly more positive tilt with the upper trough appears to be suggesting sfc low deepening rates will be a little less impressive and more delayed than earlier indications. Robust shear profiles will develop ahead of primary low/sfc cold front but northward extent of a quality narrow warm sector remains uncertain, especially considering the trend of less rapid sfc feature deepening. There does still appear to be a narrow temporal window for weak near sfc instability across the south depending on extent of warm frontal progression, but hi res ensemble means still support best surface-based and mixed-layer CAPE remaining across central/southern IN. Only minor changes were made to SWODY2 with a Marginal Risk of severe storms persisting south of US 24, and mainly for the evening hours Thursday. Some isolated wind/tornado risk is possible where some weak MLCAPE can overspread given background low and deep layer shear, but current parameter space would tend to be more supportive of isolated severe threat southwest/south of local area from southern IL into central IN. Another limiting factor for severe potential could be more delayed impressive dynamics due to the weak positive tilt of this system. Otherwise, some brief locally heavy rain is possible with highly anomalous 1.75+ inch PWATs working into the area ahead of the overnight cold frontal passage. Friday still appears to be blustery/windy day with strong cold advection on the back side of this system. This should lead to development of lake effect rain showers and a potential of mixing down some stronger wind gusts. With deepening rates of this system perhaps a bit weaker than earlier indications and some suggestion of a Great Lakes modification of secondary low level trough late in the day, guidance has backed off a bit on gust magnitude during the day, but would suspect some gusts to 30 to 35 mph would be possible. A few gusts approaching 40 mph appear most likely near immediate Lake Michigan shoreline. Given cold advection, temperatures are not likely to move much from morning levels with near steady temps in the 50s expected. No major changes have been made to the long term forecast as below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend. Low temperatures in the 30s are still on track with a potential of patchy frost. The Friday night potential remains somewhat more uncertain as some lingering lake effect clouds could persist across the west, while winds may not full decouple across the east. Saturday night still appears to be best chance of patchy frost depending on extent of southwest return flow with departing high pressure. Mid/upper level flow is still progged to rapidly deamplify early next week which will result in conditions warming to above normal levels into the lower 70s toward the end of the period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 138 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Cigs have been varying between roughly 2 kft and 3kft at both sites. Upstream obs suggest this will continue on and off through the night. Main focus will shift to chances for showers, storms and a trend to MVFR and possibly IFR cigs as an area of low pressure approaches with a strong cold front arriving after 00Z. Models continue to vary on overall coverage and location of best chances for precip with some signals of more favorable setup for showers at KSBN and maybe a slightly better chance for thunder at KFWA. Have continued to stay somewhat reserved in flight impacts before the cold front, with a likihood of further changes as the picture hopefully clears. In the wake of the front, CAA will usher in plenty of stratus and lake effect cloud cover just outside this period. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Marsili AVIATION...Fisher  471 FXUS63 KLMK 150547 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 147 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Storms continue to push through the area, bringing localized flash flooding potential and gusty winds in addition to heavy rainfall rates. * Another soupy overnight tonight will bring areas of dense fog and limited cooling potential. * Tomorrow evening brings a chance for severe thunderstorms to Southern Indiana, dependent upon adequate surface heating and time of clearing. * Cooldown and breezy winds arrive Friday, with a chance for frost in the Bluegrass overnight this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 **********Rounding Out Today's storms into Tonight************* Ongoing storms across the region will continue through this evening. A few spotty lines will likely move through, right now about two waves are visible but model data is pointing toward a third forming around sunset in isolated pockets that still contain reasonable instability. With these showers, widespread minimum rainfall totals will be .5" for the CWA north of the parkways; isolated values in the .45" have already fallen and rain is expected to continue. Additionally, local values in the 2-4" range are still possible given the moisture-loaded soupy environment. Training is a possible threat if storms slow down around sunset, but at the moment things are moving along nicely, just dumping rain. Flash flooding may be possible in known flash-ier spots, but river/stream flooding is unlikely. Overnight, we are unlikely to dry out. Lows in the upper 60s and dews at the same means we will see fog, potentially dense fog, in areas that received rainfall but are not actively raining. This will certainly include river valleys and low-lying areas, and will likely persist beneath cloud cover. ****************Tomorrow's Heat and S IN Storms****************** As the sun rises tomorrow, we aren't likely to see it as cloud cover will persist throughout the day. However, that doesn't mean we get rid of the heat - expect around the 90 degree mark in Bowling Green and low 80s across the northern half of the CWA. We should start clearing around noon in patches, with widespread clearing around sunset. On the off-chance that Southern IN does see earlier clearing, severe storms are possbile in the evening hours. The wind profile is ideal for low-level directional shear and upper-level speed shear, with a hodograph favorable for a low-end tornadic threat. While this is a tornadic environment, there are too-many "if"s involved in this statement to portray any kind of confidence of occurence; this is outlooked in the Day 2 SPC forecast with the majority of the threat pushing toward central IN and OH. Thundershowers across S IN have a timeframe of about 2pm-10pm. *******************3-Day Weekend Forecast************************ Friday we see a cold front move through the area in the afternoon. Our high temps will come just after sunrise, with highs in the low 60s (S IN) to 70 degree mark (Bowling Green, Campbellsville, Richmond) and a 75 degree high toward Albany, KY. We are breezy all day, with sustained speeds in the 10-15 kt range and gusts up to 25 kt. Cloud cover and some spotty showers arrive with our front, and overnight lows are expected to be in the 30s. Saturday and Sunday are firmly in the pleasant fall weather territory, with highs in the 55-65 range and overnight lows around 40 on Saturday night and pushing frost territory in the mid-30s Sunday night. Clear skies should remain all Saturday and Sunday. Next week stays dry, and we get to keep the seasonable temperatures for a while longer. Our next chance of rain should arrive aroundthe 24th. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 147 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Fog and low lying stratus behind a cold front that has settled just north of BWG. VLIFR-low end MVFR north of the front will continue through the overnight with calm to very light southerly winds. Should fog never form in some areas, low-lying stratus will keep ceilings below MVFR. BWG may avoid the worst of the conditions, with SW flow remaining although the threat of low-lying stratus and MVFR is still possible. By late morning on Thursday, the front will lift north, switching winds out of the SW across all terminals, clearing fog, and gradually lifting ceilings from south to north. PROB30s were included for showers across terminals, with maybe a storm in the afternoon at HNB. VFR rules should return tomorrow afternoon. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JPH AVIATION...BKF  480 FXUS63 KPAH 150547 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1247 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dense Fog across parts of the area early this morning. - Thunderstorms will be possible today along a warm front and near an approaching low, there is a small potential for a few severe storms with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes the main concern. - Sharply colder conditions are forecast behind a front moving through the area tomorrow night. Highs/Lows Saturday will be as much as 25 to 30 degrees cooler than Friday. Frost is possible Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1247 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Fog will be the first order of business this morning. There is a shallow stratus layer right along the Ohio River that seems to be preventing parts of the area from really dropping, but south of that where skies are clearer and rain fell today visibilities are dropping quickly. 00z Nashville sounding and the available model soundings show moisture increasing with height through the lowest few hundred feet of the column. Winds at the surface are near calm through the next few hours. Issued a Dense Fog Advisory for parts of the area about an hour ago and will be watching other areas to see if the stratus clears out enough to get dense fog at the surface. A surface low forming over Oklahoma tonight generates warm frontogenetic forcing over the area starting around dawn which may lead to scattered showers. The best chance appears to be over SEMO and southern Illinois in the morning with this particular activity. By late afternoon the main surface cold front starts to move quickly towards the area - increasing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms from the northwest. Instability is modest overall with this frontal passage but PWAT values remain up above 1.8 inches so efficient rainfall rates appear likely with any showers that do get going. Right along the warm front and close to the surface low passing to the northwest there appears to be a small window for surface-based convection. The most favorable zone for this may be just north and northwest of the area, but there is a marginal risk for wind/hail or isolated tornado activity based on the projected shear/instability/hodograph shape. After that conditions get pretty pumpkin-spiced with highs likely struggling to reach above 60 Friday and Saturday amid a northwest breeze. The current forecast calls for highs today to be about 25 to 30 degrees warmer than projected highs on Friday. Overnight lows Friday and especially Saturday night appear headed for the 30s. Conditions Saturday night appear cold enough for frost to be a factor. Southerly flow returns by Sunday/Monday and conditions start to moderate with dry and relatively pleasant conditions expected through the early part of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1247 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Fog and low stratus will be factor overnight with some areas seeing visibility drop below 1/4SM. There may be pockets of VFR conditions west of I-57 but conditions appear very conducive for fog formation in a short amount of time anywhere where an hour or so of radiational cooling can get going. Light to moderate rain moves in from the southwest later today as a front starts to approach from the northwest with periods of below VFR ceilings and visibilities in showers. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ILZ076>078- 081>083-085>087-089>091-094. MO...None. IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT /9 AM EDT/ this morning for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KYZ001>022. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...JGG  451 FXUS63 KSGF 150546 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1246 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch is effect through 4 PM Thursday as rounds of showers and thunderstorms move through the area. A risk for localized heavy rainfall and isolated severe storms will accompany this system. - Cooler temperatures this weekend with highs in the 50s to 60s and lows in the 30s to 40s for Friday and Saturday. Expect gusty northerly winds on Friday up to 35 mph. - Increasing confidence in patchy frost Saturday and Sunday mornings. The highest confidence is on Sunday morning across portions of the eastern Ozarks. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Today-Tonight: An upper-level trough is gradually building out Four Corners region, with associates shortwaves ejecting through southwest flow. This area of lift continues to override a stationary boundary extending from the Texas Panhandle through the Ohio Valley. As a result, periods of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms continue to persist across the area today. Overnight rainfall totals pushed 0.5 to 2 inches in many locations, with a few localized corridors of 3 to 4 inches. Despite some higher rainfall totals, any flooding or rises on creeks/streams has been hard to come by given the Severe to Extreme drought conditions in place. As we progress through the afternoon, activity will remain scattered in nature with much of it remaining light. Some of this activity may even fall as drizzle at times with a loss of cloud ice. With this in mind, temperatures will struggle to get much higher than upper 60s to lower 70s across the area. By this evening, much of the area should see a break with drizzle being the only caveat. Otherwise, a period of dry conditions is expected through the evening and portions of tonight ahead of the next wave of energy and associated showers and thunderstorms lifting out of OK around midnight or after. This overnight round will be associated with a low lifting through the area as a warm front surges north through southern M0. This area of showers and thunderstorms will coincide with an increasing low-level jet (25 to 30 knots) overnight. Given the setup of recovering instability (MUCAPE ~1500 J/kg) and adequate deep layer shear (30 to 40 knots) in the warm and moist airmass, an isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remains possible. This is captured by the SPC Marginal (1 of 5) Severe Risk into southeast KS and southwest MO through tonight. Primary hazard would be damaging wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph within any multicell line segments. Overall, confidence remains relatively low in the severe potential and coverage. It is quiet possible that SPC elects to remove the Marginal all together in future updates. Additional focus remains centered on the potential for localized heavy rainfall and a few instances of flash flooding. The Flood Watch remains in effect through 4 PM Thursday. The greatest potential for localized flooding will be confined to areas that saw higher rainfall amounts into Wednesday morning, generally along and north of Interstate 44. This aligns with the latest trends in the CAMs, with REFS LPMM capturing a few narrow corridors of 1 to 3 inches of additional rainfall. This area is focused from southeast KS to the northeast into the Lake of the Ozarks region. However, trends will need to be monitored for any wobbling north or south with heavier rainfall axes. Rain dissipates through mid-morning Thursday. A period of dry weather through Thursday afternoon, with even some breaks in the clouds, especially south of Interstate 44. This will support warming temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lower temperatures elsewhere under the cloud cover. The last leg of this active pattern will be scattered showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of the advancing cold front. No severe weather or flooding are expected with this final round of activity, clearing the area through Thursday evening/night. However, attention will quickly turn towards a dramatic cooldown across the region. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Friday-Sunday: High pressure will quickly settle into the region overnight Thursday into Friday morning, supporting much cooler temperatures. This will be accompanied by brisk north winds on Friday, upwards of 25 to 35 mph. While clouds will gradually clear through the day on Friday, highs only reach into the middle to upper 50s, near 60. The brisk north winds will make it feel more like 40s. As winds lie down and skies clear Friday, a rather chilly night is in the forecast. Lows Friday night fall into into the upper 30s to around 40 for most locations, outside of the valleys and protected areas. These areas may see lows closer towards freezing into Saturday morning, in addition to some patchy areas of frost. At this time, confidence remains to low to introduce any frost headlines, but will be monitored in future forecast updates. Highs rebound into the 60s for Saturday and Sunday, with drier weather prevailing. An additional chance for some frost into Sunday morning, especially across the Eastern Ozarks. Monday-Tuesday: High pressure and a ridge gradually build back over the region early next week. This will support a warming trend, with highs returning into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Confidence continues to increase on this warm up, as gleaned by the small interquartile spreads and CPC 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 Day above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Current observations show variably low stratus across southwest Missouri, bringing fluctuating MVFR to IFR cigs. At BBG, this stratus has built down to 2-3 SM fog, which may have potential to drop visibilities into LIFR territory until around 10Z. Radar imagery shows a line of thunderstorms lifting northeast through Oklahoma. There is some uncertainty in how this line evolves as it moves through the TAF sites, but there is highest certainty in thunderstorms impacting at least JLN (80-90% chance). As storms move through, visibilities would briefly drop to 1-2SM, with winds briefly gusty out of the southwest before returning to the background southeasterly flow at 8-12 kts. After the line of thunderstorms departs and/or breaks apart, remnant showers and thunderstorms are possible throughout the TAF period until the arrival of a strong cold front between 22-03Z. This cold front will bring a sharp wind shift to northwesterly, increasing speeds to 13-18 kts with gusts up to 23-28 kts. Cigs also have a 70-90% chance to at least briefly decline to IFR, hanging around for the rest of the TAF period. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Flood Watch through this afternoon for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Flood Watch through this afternoon for MOZ055>057-066>069- 077>080-088-089. && $$ SHORT TERM...Perez LONG TERM...Perez AVIATION...Price  512 FXUS63 KABR 150548 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1248 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain spreads north and east into the region this evening, mainly staying south of Hwy 12. - Northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph are expected to develop Thursday afternoon and evening across central and north central South Dakota. A Wind Advisory has been issued. These winds combined with drier air will also push Grassland Fire Danger into the High category Thursday afternoon. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Aviation discussion updated below for the 06Z TAFs. UPDATE Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Plenty of clouds remain, with light showers or sprinkles over north central SD with another round nearing out south central SD counties. No significant changes are anticipated this evening, with Wind Advisories in place for Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 There is a lot of uncertainty regarding temperatures and precipitation over the next two days. Temperatures will, in part, ride on cloud cover, and models have been struggling with the current stratus deck east of the Missouri River. An upper trough/low dips into ND Thursday as almost a cut-off low swings into the central and southern plains. At the sfc, a weak low pressure system moves into the central plains with an H7 low farther north over Nebraska somewhat embedded and stacked in the cut-off trough. This is farther south than previous runs and may keep any rain south of the Hwy 212 corridor but definitely south of Hwy 12. As the sfc low moves in MO on Thursday, drier mid level air pushes in from the northwest across SD on the leading edge of a sfc high. This drier air coupled with the troughing aloft will usher in caa and cause northwest winds to gust 35 to 50 mph across the area in the afternoon and evening. A wind advisory has been issued for portions of central and north central SD. For now, have it ending at 5z Friday, but may need a headline farther east for the remainder of the night given the 45 to 50 kt winds at 850mb. The Coteau, at least, could remain very gusty through the early morning hours given the pressure gradient in the east and the 90 kt jet. Given the strength of the winds, unsure how low temps will fall Friday morning as H85 temps fall into the negative single digits. The caa and the winds could cancel each other out, or we may end up needing some freeze headlines. With the winds on Thursday and min RH around 35 to 45 percent across central SD, may also need to consider impact fire headlines where fuels are burnable. Highs pressure builds in on Friday with a ridge transitioning over the Rockies and Plains on Saturday. Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected Saturday through the first half of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Band of -SHRA/SHRA moving northward across the region at TAF issuance (06Z) and may bring a couple hour period of 4-6SM VSBY at KABR/KATY. This band will be through KPIR at 06Z and just on the edge of KMBG to where VC (vicinity) will be mentioned. Additional chances for -SHRA through the morning hours on Thursday and will use PROB30 to handle this. CIGs are still MVFR at KABR/KATY with no clear indication on when they will depart. That said, there are signs more so in KABR for brief improvements to VFR later this morning before more MVFR CIGs overspread KABR and the rest of the region tonight. Strong northwest surface winds gusting from 35 to 45 kts will develop from west to east across the region during the late morning and afternoon hours. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Friday for SDZ003-015-033-045-048. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CDT Friday for SDZ004-005-009-010-016-017-034>037-051. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TMT DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...TMT  669 FXUS61 KCLE 150553 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 153 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Included falling temperatures in the forecast through the day Friday. Wind gusts have trended down slightly. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening into early Friday. A few stronger storms are possible with wind gusts to 50 mph. 2) A cold front will cross the area Friday bringing strong gusty winds and showery conditions. 3) The coldest air of the season will arrive this weekend and a mix of frost/freeze conditions are expected on Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A few showers will exit to the south through this evening. A cold front extends from near Pittsburgh to north of Columbus at 3 PM and will continue to move south tonight as high pressure builds across the Upper Great Lakes. Scattered thunderstorms have filled in towards Columbus and should mostly remain south of the local area. Thursday will be dry to start the day. Low pressure is expected to track out of the Mid-Mississippi Valley towards lower Michigan by Thursday evening. Initially there will be a dry low level flow out of the east with isentropic ascent increasing aloft during the afternoon. Showers will spread west to late afternoon through the evening as the warm front lifts north to near Lake Erie. A few thunderstorms will also be possible during the evening, especially across the north near the front. The Storm Prediction Center does have a Marginal Risk of Severe Thunderstorms highlighted across portions of northern Ohio. The timing for this risk is late Thursday night with any thunderstorms occurring along or just ahead of the cold front generally after 2 AM Friday. The wind field will be strong initially with 40-45 knots of sheer aloft. The limiting factor for thunderstorms will be instability with surface based CAPE of only a few hundred joules. Have adjusted the forecast to indicate a non-diurnal temperature trend with temperatures peaking on Friday during the early morning hours ahead of the cold front. Even without thunderstorms, some stronger wind gusts may accompany showers and there is potential for a few wind gusts of 40-50 mph. KEY MESSAGE 2... Low pressure will continue across the eastern Great Lakes on Friday, pulling a strong cold front east across the local area. Showers will accompany the front crossing the area during the morning. Strong cold air advection will occur behind the front with 850mb temperatures falling by about 10C between 06-18Z Friday. The surface low however is not as deep as previous runs and the upper level trough remains positively tilted and elongated to the deep south as it crosses the Central Great Lakes. Mixing depths behind the front on Friday are only up to about 4K feet with winds of 30-35 knots through that depth. Wind gusts of 30-35 mph are expected through the day on Friday with temperatures falling into the 50s by afternoon. A secondary trough swings south across Lake Erie during the evening with winds shifting from northwest to northerly. This is the window of strongest winds on Lake Erie and lakeshore areas will see winds gusting to 35-45 mph Friday night. In addition, this secondary trough will result in a flare up of lake enhanced rain showers. Coverage of showers will be fairly high for several hours then becoming focused across north central Ohio overnight as winds shift around to the north/northeast. This includes flow off Lake Huron which prolong scattered showers through Friday night and extended a low chance pop into Saturday morning for favored areas. KEY MESSAGE 3... The coldest air of the season arrives behind the cold front. Temperatures at 850mb will range from -2 to -6C at 12Z Saturday before gradually starting to rebound over the weekend as the trough shifts east. Temperatures on Friday night will tend to bottom out in the upper 30s for inland portions of northern Ohio but may reach the lower 30s in Northwest Pennsylvania. In general expecting precipitation to fall as nearly all rain as we lose ice in the cloud aloft late tonight. High pressure builds overhead Saturday into Saturday night which will result in a favorable radiational cooling set-up. Saturday night lows are forecast to be near freezing for much of inland northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. This may result in frost or the first freeze of the season and potentially end the growing season for some locations. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... A warm front is expected to lift across the area this evening. Ahead of this front, MVFR ceilings are widespread early this morning and will generally continue through midday. Ceilings will try to lift/scatter out for a time this afternoon, and do bring some sites up to a brief window of VFR. Ceilings will likely lower back to MVFR across the board this evening along and ahead of the incoming warm front. The warm front may be accompanied by some mainly light rain showers. The greater potential for showers and even some embedded thunderstorms that can bring visibility restrictions appears to be late this evening into the overnight. The warm front will lift out of the area, with a brief window of warmer and more unstable conditions ahead of a quickly approaching cold front that will cross early Friday. Guidance is quite pessimistic with widespread low ceilings (IFR or LIFR at most TAF sites) Thursday night into Friday morning, though the current TAFs lean a bit less pessimistic for now as it can be difficult to see such low ceilings in a robust warm sector this time of year. Northeast winds early this morning will gradually shift more east-southeast through the day today, and then more south- southwest behind the warm front this evening into tonight. Speeds will generally remain 10 knots or less through today before increasing to 10-15kt with some 25kt gusts behind the warm front tonight. Outlook...Occasional non-VFR expected to continue in periods of rain showers and lower ceilings through Friday night. Winds may gust over 30kt at times Friday afternoon through early Saturday. && .MARINE... Northeast winds of 15-20 knots are expected overnight. Waves generally build to 2 to 5 feet with the highest wave heights expected from the Islands to Willowick where a Small Craft Advisory has been issued between 10 PM and 6 AM tonight. Winds veer around to the south on Thursday evening as a warm front lifts north and southwest winds increase to 25-30 knots overnight. A strong cold front comes through in two segments on Friday, first with a wind shift to the west/northwest Friday morning, then a shift to the north with a stronger push of cold air Friday night. Backed off on winds slightly with this system with only a brief period of gales now forecast for Friday night as the strength of the low pressure system has trended weaker and farther to the east. Will still monitor trends as we are close to gale force and may still need a warning for at least a portion of Lake Erie. Small Craft Advisories will be needed through most of Saturday as waves are slower to come down. Otherwise high pressure builds overhead for the remainder of the weekend with improving marine conditions. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for LEZ144>146. && $$ DISCUSSION...10 AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...10  764 FXUS61 KBUF 150555 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 155 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Periods of rain tonight through Friday, along with gusty winds. 2) Much colder Friday night through Saturday night with a few wet snowflakes possible early Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Periods of rain tonight through Friday, along with gusty winds. Low stratus will persist this morning across most of the region with a shallow layer of moisture trapped beneath the inversion in low level northeast flow. The stratus deck will quickly shrink in coverage later this morning through early afternoon, with a brief period of sunshine before mid/high clouds increase ahead of the next system late today. Stream phasing is underway across the mid-section of the nation, with the resulting sharp mid level trough advancing east into the Great Lakes tonight through Friday. Surface low pressure will organize over the Midwest today, then move to southern Ontario province by Friday morning before reaching the Saint Lawrence Valley by Friday afternoon. Model consensus has converged on a solution tracking the surface low just north of the area, allowing the warm sector to briefly build into the lower Great Lakes. A period of strong warm advection and moisture transport, enhanced by a 50-60 knot low level jet, will arrive overnight and support an initial wave of rainfall. This rain will arrive in Western NY by around midnight, then rapidly spread northeast overnight. Additional periods of rain will continue Friday through Friday evening as the trailing cold front moves southeast across the region, supported by mid level height falls and right entrance region jet dynamics. Marginal instability in the warm sector may support a few embedded thunderstorms as well late tonight through Friday. Rainfall amounts will vary widely across the area, generally ranging from 0.25" to 1.0". Terrain will play an important role given the strong boundary layer flow, with downslope areas of the Lake Erie shore and Genesee Valley likely on the low end of the range, while higher terrain is more likely to be on the higher end of the range from upslope enhancement. There may be a few small areas that exceed 1.0" if embedded convection develops. It will become quite windy late tonight through Friday. A 50-60 knot low level jet will propagate across the eastern Great Lakes late tonight through Friday morning. Gusts will increase into the 25-35 mph range areawide, with gusts possibly reaching or exceeding 40 mph in downslope areas along the Lake Erie shore and north of the Tug Hill Plateau briefly. Boundary layer flow will quickly swing around to the southwest Friday morning through mid afternoon, with gusts still in the 25-35 mph range in most areas, and up to 40 mph northeast of Lake Erie across the Niagara Frontier. KEY MESSAGE 2...Much colder Friday night through Saturday night with a few wet snowflakes possible early Saturday morning. Strong cold advection will develop Friday night in the wake of the departing low, with 850MB temps dropping into the -5C to -8C range by Saturday morning. The cold air aloft will support increasing lake induced instability overnight with a brief lake response, but short NNW fetch and a rapidly drying synoptic scale airmass will keep lake effect muted and brief. Lake effect and upslope rain showers will develop southeast of the lakes Friday night, with a few wet snowflakes possibly mixing in very late Friday night through early Saturday morning before the lake effect showers quickly end by late morning. The best chance of a few snowflakes will be across higher terrain, but no accumulation is expected. The coldest airmass of the fall season so far will arrive for Saturday, with highs only in the 40s areawide, and even upper 30s across the highest terrain despite some afternoon sunshine. Temperatures will drop back into the low to mid 30s Saturday night on the lake plains, with some 20s likely across the Southern Tier valleys and North Country. The cold air will quickly depart, with temperatures back above average by early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Widespread low stratus with MVFR CIGS will persist through mid morning with a shallow layer of low level moisture trapped beneath the inversion in low level northeast flow. The stratus layer will quickly shrink in coverage late morning through early afternoon with a return to VFR. Mid/high clouds will then thicken and lower late this afternoon through this evening ahead of the next system. Low pressure will organize over the Midwest today, then track across southern lower Michigan to southern Ontario province by Friday morning. Rain will overspread the area from southwest to northeast overnight, with CIGS deteriorating to MVFR/IFR a few hours after the rain begins as low levels saturate. A 50-60 knot low level jet will move into the eastern Great Lakes late tonight through Friday morning in the developing warm sector of the system. This low level jet will bring a brief period of low level wind shear overnight as it arrives, followed by increasing surface wind gusts late tonight through Friday. Expect gusts of 20- 30 knots areawide, and up to 35 knots near Lake Erie by late tonight. Outlook... Friday...MVFR/IFR with periods of rain. Windy. Saturday...Areas of MVFR CIGS with scattered rain/wet snow showers early, improving to VFR. Sunday through Monday...VFR. && .MARINE... Northeast winds around 15 knots will continue to produce choppy conditions on both lakes today, but winds and waves will remain just below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Low pressure will organize over the Midwest today, then track across southern lower Michigan tonight, reaching southern Ontario province Friday morning. This low will continue to deepen as it moves northeast across the Saint Lawrence Valley Friday, reaching the Canadian Maritimes by Saturday. Southerly winds will increase overnight ahead of the system, then quickly veer to the southwest and west Friday as the low passes by just north of the lower Great Lakes, followed by gusty north-northwest winds Friday night through Saturday morning. Sustained winds during this timeframe will average 20-30 knots, producing high end Small Craft Advisory conditions on both lakes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hitchcock AVIATION...Hitchcock MARINE...Hitchcock  708 FXUS64 KEWX 150554 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1254 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1233 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Heavy rainfall threat prompts Flood Watch for Val Verde County from Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning. - One final day of hot and humid weather, then cold front arrives pre-dawn Friday with strong northerly winds in it's wake - Much cooler air behind the cold front on Friday through Sunday with a warming trend returning early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Rapid refresh runs depict a region of early morning streamer rain showers, possibly a storm or two forming NW of the San Antonio metro into the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau. Should a storm form near Rocksprings, it could be in a favorable environment to become severe as the LLJ influences storm motion. The more likely risk (SPC marginal, 1 of 5) will be over the west half of Val Verde county where the storms have be firing near Big Bend and moving NE. High RH conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures are expected again today, and eastern counties are expected to see enough sunshine to cook up to the 90-95 degree range. Dry air mixing into the region from the Gulf is thanks to a TUTT low that is moving from the Yucatan peninsula toward Brownsville. This impact will likely give the central and eastern counties abundant sunshine and suppressed (or no) rain chances for the daytime period. Farther west, the Edwards Plateau will continue to get waves of Pacific tropical moisture, but most of it remaining west of DRT through up to 00Z. Right around 00Z, the HRRR 0Z 10/15 run depicts storms over Mexico advancing NE toward DRT which would outpace the approaching cold front. The front does accelerate S over Western Val Verde County in the 00Z to 06Z window, with most model data depicting the most intense rains for our area to be 00Z to 03Z in western Val Verde county where we are advertising 1 to 3 inch amounts and isolated pockets up to 6 inches. This focus could advance slightly east, as there are some hints to that trends in the NAM and HRRR runs. Thus we might look at this later this morning and decide that the flood threat needs an expansion to Edwards/Kinney Counties. The one thing that could hinder the rains from shifting east is the speed of the front into the Edwards plateau, to where the north winds precede the onset of heavy precipitation, thus limiting the heavy rain potential to only areas where the front and storm timing were more aligned. The rain potential drops off dramatically farther east, and earlier model cycles had large areas getting no rain at all. This has been revised to a more 30-50 PoP environment for the more populated areas of South Central TX. Most of the rain chances east of the Edwards Plateau will be falling from 06Z to 15Z Friday and is expected along and just behind the front. Forecast time sections depict a deep layer fropa by Friday morning leading to rain ending rather abruptly by 15Z. The deep layer lines up with MOS guidance signals that we'll be in line for a wind advisory with winds gusting up to 45 mph late Friday morning. Thick mid-level clouds and strong cold air advection with minimal downsloping should lead to a dramatic drop of around 20 degrees in the high temperature as compared to those expected today. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Friday night's winds will continue to be a bit blustery, and we'll expect to see some wind chill index values falling into the 30s and 40s by early Saturday morning. Fewer clouds are expected by Saturday morning,but the winds remaining steady should limit how cold the lows will get. A drier day Saturday should allow for filtered sunshine but the cooling gains bringing lows in the 40s and 50s will lead to highs near or perhaps slightly cooler than the Friday maxes. North winds finally become tame Saturday evening, and some light winds could allow for some min temps in the upper 30s to low 40s over northern counties. Another chilly and dry day is expected to continue Sunday into Monday, with the return of a warming trend to begin daytime Monday. Tropical cyclones dancing around in the Eastern Pacific have made the latter periods hard to manage, and the latest model cycles now push back our better chances for rains to arrive with another front about 8-9 days out. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 MVFR ceilings are expected overnight through the morning across the area terminals, but KAUS may teeter back and forth of VFR at times. Some streamer showers develop overnight into the morning from the Hill Country into the Southern Edwards Plateau. This could yield to a shower approaching KDRT and elected to add in VCSH after 08Z and through the morning. VFR conditions establish across the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF) entering the afternoon while locations closer to the Rio Grande and Southern Edwards Plateau, such as KDRT, looks to stay socked into MVFR ceilings at least into the mid-afternoon. The moderate winds subside through the day as the pressure gradient relaxes in the advance of an approaching cold front. This cold front results in more rain and storms to develop and advance across the Southern Edwards Plateau from this evening into tonight. Activity could approach KDRT by 03Z, and have inserted a PROB30 group for -TSRA at that site as a result. The front should arrive at the I-35 terminals near or just after midnight. The front brings a chance for showers with added PROB30 groups for -SHRA at KAUS and KSAT within the 30 hr TAFs, along with a northerly wind shift, and quick rise in wind speeds and gusts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 93 63 70 50 / 0 50 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 92 63 70 50 / 0 50 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 91 64 72 50 / 0 50 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 89 59 66 47 / 0 50 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 87 62 67 50 / 20 70 60 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 90 60 69 49 / 0 50 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 92 64 73 49 / 0 40 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 91 63 70 49 / 0 50 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 92 65 71 51 / 0 40 20 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 91 65 72 51 / 0 40 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 93 67 74 52 / 0 40 10 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from this afternoon through Friday morning for TXZ183. && $$ SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM....18 AVIATION...62  736 FXUS66 KLOX 150555 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1055 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...14/1044 PM. A moderate to strong Santa Ana Wind will bring widespread strong winds and critical fire weather conditions to much of Southwest California through Saturday. Additionally, very warm temperatures bring a high risk of heat illness to all coastal areas. A significant cool down with a chance of widespread rain is expected next week. && .SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...14/756 PM. ***UPDATE*** The first Santa Ana Wind event of the season is on track to produce very gusty northeast to east winds across much of Southwest California starting tomorrow morning. RED FLAG WARNINGS are in effect for much of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties from tomorrow at 6AM through Saturday 8PM. For interior portions of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties, RED FLAG WARNINGS are in effect 3AM-6PM Friday. Extreme fire growth and behavior is expected if any fire starts. A slew of wind products are in effect during similar times, although wind advisories will likely be needed for late Friday through Saturday. Additionally, this Santa Ana will be a very warm one, with coastal areas forecast to experience a high risk of heat illness with the warmest temps in the region. It is imperative to practice wildfire safety and make sure to have plans in place for potential evacuations and/or power outages. ***From Previous Discussion*** The first Santa Ana event for the season is going to be a strong one. Forecast models and ensemble gradients are all pointing to a strong event with with 50kt northeast winds at 850mb and surface gradients around 8-9mb from the east. There have been some gusty north to northeast winds to 30-40mph this morning in the San Gabriel Mountains and across the western San Fernando Valley. But the primary days will be Thursday through Saturday, with Friday being the strongest. During that peak period wind gusts across the LA/Ventura mountains are expected to reach as high as 70 mph while the LA/Ventura Valleys and Ventura coastal areas peak at around 55 mph. Typical Santa Anas do not include the LA Metro area, Antelope Valley, or Central Coast but some of the latest model forecasts indicate at least some 15-30 mph gusts in those areas. Temperatures have started to warm up today and that trend will continue through Friday. Due to the strong subsidence associated with this event and relatively warmer air aloft this will be a very hot Santa Ana, with coastal areas being the warmest. Model forecasts for today had a 3-6 degree cold bias so there's a good chance that there will a similar bias the next couple days. With that in mind high temperatures have been increased by at least a few degrees Thursday and Friday. Most coastal areas, including SLO and Santa Barbara Counties will be in the 90s by Friday and heat advisories are in effect. Valleys will be a little cooler but still in the mid 80s to mid 90s. And there is a 5-10 percent chance of some 100 degree highs as well. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...14/201 PM. A rapid cooling trend is expected to begin Sunday for coastal areas as a low pressure system moving into the Pac NW initiates strong return to onshore flow. Coastal areas will drop 10-15 degrees from Saturday and could see a return of low clouds and fog as early as Monday. Valleys and other interior areas will maintain their respective temperatures through around Monday before the cooling finally arrives with the next storm system on Tuesday. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with the track of that system. Models initially had it moving much farther inland but later solutions have trended more to the west. Roughly 20-30% of the current solutions show some light rainchances as early as late Tuesday, but there are just as many solutions holding off until as late Thursday due to the storm tracking even farther off the coast. Either way, there is high confidence in a much cooler pattern by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...15/0540Z. At 0555Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion. High confidence in CAVU TAFs, moderate confidence in winds. Timing and strength of gusty NE winds may be off by 2-3 hours and 10kt respectively. KLAX...High confidence in CAVU TAF. Any east wind component will be AOB 7 kts 10Z-16Z. KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF. Moderate confidence in winds, and N to NE winds may begin as early as 08Z. && .MARINE...14/1052 PM. Gusty northeast to easterly winds will affect the coastal waters over the next few days. Moderate to strong Santa Ana winds will affect the waters south of Point Conception Thursday through Saturday morning, and the near shore waters will see gusty easterly winds Friday, possibly reaching Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. These hazardous Santa Ana NE-E winds will be focused from Ventura to Santa Monica and out past Anacapa Island, and conditions could also become hazardous across the San Pedro Channel Friday morning with a 25% chc of 25 kt gusts at Avalon Harbor. The worst conditions are expected Friday morning, and Gale Watches have been issued to target these waters. Refer to MWWLOX for more details. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) may be needed for the nearshore waters along the Central Coast Friday morning due to gusty offshore winds. There is a solid signal for a trough early to mid next week which could bring hazardous boating conditions along with rain chances to our coastal waters. Will monitor this system. Long period swells from the west and the south are affecting the coastal waters, and can create a confused sea state. This can make boating more challenging and dangerous, especially for small vessels. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 6 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-370>374-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 340-341-346-347-349-350-354-355-362-366>368. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Thursday afternoon for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect from 6 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 369-375-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect from 6 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 288-354-355-358-362-369>382-548. (See LAXRFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect from 3 AM to 6 PM PDT Friday for zones 345-353. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from late Thursday night through Friday afternoon for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 AM to 5 PM PDT Friday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW/Lewis AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...Phillips/Black SYNOPSIS...Lewis weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  802 FXUS63 KGRR 150556 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 156 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Deepening fall system to move through the Great Lakes - Mainly dry this weekend and into early next week - Cool temperatures this weekend then moderating some next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Deepening fall system to move through the Great Lakes Two distinct upper shortwave troughs can be seen this afternoon in satellite imagery, one over the Central Rockies and the other moving from the Canadian Rockies into the Canadian Prairies. Both of these shortwaves will move towards the Great Lakes and phase with one another as they approach from the west. Rain will spread in towards daybreak on Thursday. The most widespread rain will move Thursday afternoon and evening as the right entrance region of and upper jet moves overhead. A low level jet will impact southern portions of the state, towards I-94 especially. 850mb moisture transport is very strong Thursday evening into Thursday night. All areas will see rain with one half to one inch of rain likely. Cannot rule out some thunder as the cold front swings through, but the better instability will remain off to our south. Lake effect rain showers will combine with diurnal rain showers on Friday for another wet day. Delta T's will rise into the upper teens C which will result in MUCAPE values over the lake on the order of 600 j/kg. Feel waterspouts are a possibility Friday morning before the stronger winds move in during the afternoon. We are looking at gale force winds on Lake Michigan, but on the land we may not meet advisory criteria with wind gusts expected to be in the 30-40 mph range as of now. - Mainly dry this weekend and into early next week Ridging will take over for the weekend and early next week. We are looking at a dry forecast from Saturday all the way into Wednesday. BUFKIT profiles show a very dry atmosphere so there is fairly high confidence we remain dry Saturday-Wednesday. - Cool temperatures this weekend then moderating some next week We will cool into the 50s for highs this weekend as high pressure moves through the Great Lakes. Lows in the 30s are anticipated for Saturday morning and Sunday morning. We are likely looking at frost and freeze headlines at least on Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 156 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 We are seeing a variety of conditions at the terminals this morning, ranging from some small areas of clear skies to lower clouds in the MVFR category. The trend for the night will be for the lower clouds to become more widespread as they expand. The clouds should end up mainly MVFR. There may be some breaks at times, but will side on the pessimistic side. The clouds will then hold on into the afternoon. We will see widespread showers move in over the area from West to East after about 18z. Conditions will then deteriorate late afternoon and this evening as we go down into the LIFR category with visibilities and ceilings. Showers will continue the majority of the time, but may scatter out a bit right at the end of the period. Low level wind shear is expected at all but the KMKG terminal after 00z as the wind core aloft moves overhead. The winds at the sfc will be from the SE at less than 10 knots, while 45 knots or so from the SW at 2k ft agl. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 A deepening fall system will move through the Great Lakes Thursday and Friday. North winds will increase behind the low starting Friday morning. We have a Gale Watch in place beginning at 11am Friday and lasting into Friday night. Winds are expected to reach 35 to 45 knots on the lake during the peak of the event Friday afternoon and evening. The winds will be running parallel down the shoreline, but waves will still be high reaching 10+ feet on Friday. The largest waves will be at the south end of the lake. When advisory/warning decisions are made we may need to have a Small Craft Advisory on the front end of what will likely be a Gale Warning. Waves will become hazardous to smaller craft in our area starting as early at 400am Friday. Southwest flow develops rapidly behind the departing system and we are will likely see large waves again Saturday evening into Sunday. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...NJJ MARINE...Duke  893 FXUS61 KCTP 150558 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 158 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Added discussion of weak severe threat today && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Weak cold front today, then a stronger system moves across PA on Thursday night and Friday 2) Windy and wet end to the week with first flakes in the higher terrain 3) Cold weather may end the growing season for many places Sat and Sun mornings. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Weak cold front today, then a stronger system moves across PA on Thursday night and Friday The front moving over central PA today has stalled out. Isolated showers are present along the PA turnpike and the southern half of the state, but heavy cloud cover and morning convection is keeping instability limited for additional storm development. The environment is not ideal for any additional storms that do manage to initiate this afternoon. Bulk shear is progged >40kt at JST, but tops are only expected to be 20-25kft. Pretty rare that we get any severe gusts with CAPE only in the 200-500J/kg range and no favorable thermodynamic environment to allow winds to accelerate completely down to the sfc. QPF for today is low with just 0.50" as the top end in the Laurels. Any TSRA should be moving along steadily. So, we should have no risk for flooding rains today. The next storm system will be driven by a sharp upper trough with a strong sfc high behind it. PWAT does increase to 1.8" in the S. The showers and any storms will be moving very quickly Thursday night and Friday. 1hr FFG is currently 0.8" and higher - but could decrease very slightly due to any rain today. Storm total QPF in the 0.1-0.2" range in the SC-SE and near 0.75" in the NW (where FFG is higher) should not lead to flooding. ----------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Windy end to the week with first flakes in the higher terrain Wind gusts 30-45 mph are forecast on the backside of the cold front and will deliver much colder air downwind of the Great Lakes this weekend. Latest NBM probs hold only 10pct chc for advy gusts - and only on the very highest elevations. JST BUFKIT profile from GFS does nudge 60KT winds down to 5kft AGL. So, it will be windy, and worth monitoring for an advy at some point - but only for the highest elevations - probably not for 90pct of the CWA. The shot of colder air will allow for rain to mix or changeover to snow showers Friday night into Saturday morning across the higher terrain along the Allegheny Mtns. Any minor accum (<0.5") would have to occur overnight and be limited to non paved surfaces. ------------------------------------------------------------ KEY MESSAGE 3: Cold weather may end the growing season for many places Sun morning. Big sfc high moves in for the weekend, supplying dry but cold weather for Sat and Sun. Sat will hold the coldest daytime temps with temps getting just above 40F in the NE. Sat AM could be sub-freezing for the nrn tier. So far, only McKean Co has been taken off the list of zones to need any further frost/freeze products. But, we could add to that list Sat AM - and especially on Sun AM. Sunday morning lows expected to be in the upper 20s to mid 30s may kill the growing season for a significant portion of the CWA. We'll be considering appropriate frost/freeze products, but it is still too early to be that confident on details. Pretty cold again Monday AM, but not quite as cold - and some of the area may not need any more frost/freeze products by then. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Winds have shifted northerly in the wake of yesterday's weak frontal passage, allowing for drier air to filter in across the Commonwealth. A subsidence inversion at around 1500 ft is contributing to periods of MVFR ceilings across the Allegheny Plateau and Laurels (KBFD/KJST/KAOO) as low-level moisture remains trapped beneath the inversion. While the central mountain terminals (KUNV/KIPT) are favored to remain VFR through Thursday evening, intermittent MVFR ceilings will be possible (20-30% chance) into the morning hours on the periphery of greater low-level moisture to the north and west. Farther southeast (KMDT/KLNS), restrictions are less likely through Thursday evening due to lower relative humidity values at the inversion height (RH to around 80% vs. 90-100% farther northwest). As the weak front slides southward across the Mid-Atlantic, southerly return flow will build out ahead of a more potent low pressure system approaching the southern Great Lakes, allowing for the boundary to lift northward as a warm front this afternoon and evening. Winds of 5 to 10 kts will veer throughout today, shifting from N-NW in the morning to S-SE in the afternoon. Scattered showers and lowering ceilings will accompany the warm front later today, with IFR ceilings likely (50-70% chance) to overspread central Pennsylvania from west to east between 00-06Z Friday as warm air advection drives moisture back in across the region. Moreover, nocturnal LLWS is likely (50-70% chance) over the western airfields (KBFD/KJST) Thursday night as an LLJ ahead of the system brings southwesterly winds at 925 mb to 35-40 kts. LLWS is less likely with points eastward, farther from the low pressure center moving over the southern Great Lakes. Outlook... Fri...Higher chances of SHRA with isolated TSRA. Restrictions increasingly likely. Gusty S-SW winds likely ahead of front, with gusty NW winds behind front. Sat...Lingering SHRA across N/W PA with some -SHSN mixing in early Saturday morning. Restrictions likely at airfields that mix over to SHSN. Precipitation tapers off by sunrise, VFR prevails with gusty winds. Sun-Mon...AM fog possible; otherwise, VFR conditions prevail. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Bowen KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Bowen DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Bowen AVIATION...Teare  906 FXUS62 KRAH 150559 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 158 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Increased chance of rain Friday night and particularly Saturday morning with a cold front && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 210 PM Wednesday... 1) The potential for record heat continues through Friday. 2) A cold front Friday night brings a decisive end to the record heat, bringing in well below normal temperatures for the weekend and the potential for patchy frost by Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... As of 210 PM Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1... The potential for record heat continues through Friday. As of 2pm, RDU had already warmed to 88 degrees, beating the previous daily record high of 86 set in 1985. In addition, GSO had warmed to 85 degrees, tying the daily record high set in 1975. FAY is 87 degrees and will flirt with their daily record high of 90 degrees. This is primarily due to an upper-level ridge building across the southeastern United States, considering surface wind has been minimal out of the southwest today. The potential for record heat on Thursday may be tempered by a cold front currently near the Mason-Dixon line that will drop south tomorrow into Virginia, and some models are showing this front drifting into northeastern North Carolina. There will likely be a 10 degree difference in high temperatures between Raleigh and Roanoke Rapids Thursday afternoon, although all three climate sites (Greensboro, RDU, Fayetteville) are expected to remain on the warm side of the front. Precipitation chances with this front are near zero, but the front will retreat to the north on Friday, allowing the entire forecast area to return to the mid to upper 80s for highs. Along with widespread sunshine on Friday, wind gusts as high as 30 mph can be expected in the afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold front Friday night brings a decisive end to the record heat, bringing in well below normal temperatures for the weekend and the potential for patchy frost by Sunday morning. The cold front is expected to arrive slightly later than the previous forecast, and should now be crossing central North Carolina after sunset Friday evening. Although winds could be gusty with the frontal passage itself, this timing will reduce the overall wind gusts due to less mixing in the overnight hours. Models are showing a noticeable increase for the chance of rain with the frontal passage, specifically looking at Saturday morning, although rainfall totals would not be heavy. Saturday's highs will be 20 to 25 degrees colder than Friday, with isolated colder spots only rising into the upper 50s, with most locations reaching the low to mid 60s. Saturday and Sunday nights should have similar low temperatures, with most locations falling into the 40s, but some sheltered locations dropping into the upper 30s with the potential for some frost. Temperatures should return to near normal values by the beginning of next week, with highs around 70 and lows around 50. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 155 AM Thursday... Light swly winds will persist ahead of an outflow boundary that may shift surface winds to light nely/ely at Piedmont sites and RWI late this morning. That boundary will be followed by a backdoor cold front that will settle into the far ne Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain of NC late this afternoon or this evening. IFR-MVFR ceilings are likely to develop behind that front, including at RWI, near the end of the 06Z TAF period. While the front and post-frontal ceilings are likely to hold just to the north of Piedmont sites, by perhaps 10-30 miles, a slight swwd shift of the location of the boundary would result in an increasing likelihood for flight restrictions at Piedmont sites tonight as well. Outlook: Gusty swly surface winds will develop ahead of a strong cold front on Fri, followed by a period of strong and gusty nwly surface winds with the passage of that front Fri night. There is a chance that the front will be accompanied by a shallow, broken line of convection (devoid of lightning) as it moves across cntl NC Fri night, followed by an area of post-frontal, stratiform rain that may linger into the day Sat. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: October 15: KGSO: 87/1985 KRDU: 88/1985 KFAY: 91/1931 October 16: KGSO: 85/1953 KRDU: 86/1925 KFAY: 90/1925 Record High Minimum Temperatures: October 15: KGSO: 63/1985 KRDU: 66/1942 KFAY: 67/1928 October 16: KGSO: 66/1947 Latest 90 F days: GSO: 10/12/1904 RDU: 10/10/1907 FAY: 10/26/1940 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Green AVIATION...MWS CLIMATE...RAH  888 FXUS63 KLOT 150558 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1258 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A fall storm system will move through the area Thursday and Friday, bringing periods of rain showers and gusty northwesterly winds (the latter primarily on Friday). - Frosty and near-freezing conditions are favored away from Lake Michigan Friday night into Saturday. - After the brief period of chilly weather, there will be a warming trend this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Through Thursday night: Other than a few spits of drizzle near Lake Michigan, most of the area has since dried out from the overnight and early morning showers and thunderstorms. The combination of overcast skies and persistent onshore northeasterly winds have held temperatures in the low to mid 60s near/north of I-80. Farther south, a thinning of the stratus layer with occasional peeks of sunshine has allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Generally expect the cloud cover to fill back in through this evening and overnight with temperatures only dropping into the 50s. A fall storm system remains on track to lift across the region on Thursday which will bring widespread showers and a few rumbles of thunder to the area. The greatest shower coverage is currently favored late morning through the afternoon. Hi-res guidance continues to depict a relative minimum in precipitation developing on the southwest side of the surface low during the late afternoon and early evening. Depending on how far north the low tracks, increasing instability southeast of this dry wedge may lift into the far southern forecast area, south of a Pontiac to Rensselaer line. While the better instability remains farther south into central and southern Illinois, an isolated stronger storm can't be ruled out. Any more robust showers and embedded thunderstorms will be capable of efficient rainfall rates for this time of year in the presence of PWATs potentially upwards of 1.5-2". The limited coverage of stronger showers/storms should keep any flooding potential tied mainly to ponding on roadways and poor drainage spots. Friday: In the wake of the departing storm system and associated strong cold front, the surface pressure gradient increases markedly across the area on Friday. This will lead to blustery northwest winds gusting up to 30-40+ mph, highest along the northwest Indiana lakeshore. In addition, model guidance has trended slightly more saturated within the low-cloud layer which may support the redevelopment of gusty diurnal showers. Weak instability within the layer and colder cloud tops may support some graupel as well. Temperatures on Friday will likely struggle to warm out of the low to mid 50s, making for the coldest day of the season so far. As the northwesterly winds begin to turn more northerly over Lake Michigan, a broken band (or bands) of lake effect rain showers will focus into northwest Indiana late Friday afternoon through the evening. Waves are also expected to increase and may lead to minor lakeshore flooding or erosion, particularly along the Porter County shore. Friday night onward: Skies will quickly clear out after midnight Friday, which will allow for efficient radiational cooling amidst an already cooler airmass. This will likely lead to areas of frost development outside of Chicago and away from Lake Michigan, coverage dependent upon how light winds end up. Can't rule out temperatures in portions of interior northern Illinois dropping into the lower 30s. However, confidence is not high enough for a freeze watch with this update. While still cooler on Saturday with temperatures in the 50s to around 60, a return of southwesterly low-level flow will begin a gradual warming trend that continues through early next week, bringing a return to above normal temperatures. Petr && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1258 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Forecast concerns for the terminals... - VFR to high end MVFR ceilings tonight. - Storm system will arrive Thursday morning and bring periods of showers and IFR conditions, at times LIFR, through Thursday evening. - Improving ceilings Thursday night with increasing northwest winds gusting 20-25 kts. A busy TAF period weather wise is ahead as the developing storm system in the southern Plains will be moving into and through the Great Lakes Thursday morning through Thursday evening. Prior to the system's arrival, expect VFR to high end MVFR (2500-4000 ft) ceilings to persist off and on through tonight with easterly winds around 8-10 kts. While a few warm advection showers may develop as early as 09-10z tonight, it seems the bulk of the rain showers will hold off until mid to late morning Thursday as the core of the aforementioned storm system arrives. Once the rain showers arrive they will persist in an off and on capacity through Thursday evening resulting in MVFR visibilities and IFR ceilings. That said, with the surface low forecast to traverse directly overhead confidence continues to grow in a period of drizzle and LIFR conditions for a few hours late Thursday afternoon through early Thursday evening. Given that there is still some uncertainty as to the duration of the drizzle and LIFR conditions have opted to maintain PROB30s for this potential for now. Additionally, there is also a low end chance (10-15%) for an isolated rumble or two of thunder near and south of I-80 (mainly effecting GYY) between 21z-01z as a plume of instability oozes northward but confidence remains too low for any formal TAF mention. Rain is expected to gradually taper from west to east around and after midnight Thursday night. Ceilings will also improve as the rain ends with MVFR conditions expected to return around midnight and persist through the rest of the TAF period. As for winds, directions will become more southeasterly Thursday morning as the system arrives before becoming light and somewhat variable as the surface low passes overhead. Though, directions beneath the low should generally favor a south-southeast direction (170-180 degrees). In the wake of the system's cold front wind directions will turn west-southwest and then finally northwesterly around midnight Thursday night. Speeds will also be increasing in the wake of the cold front with gusts peaking around 20-25 kts Thursday night, though some locally higher gusts may be seen if deeper mixing is achieved. These gusty northwest winds will prevail through the day on Friday as well. Yack && .MARINE... Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Strong northwesterly gales to 40 kt and very hazardous waves are forecast to develop Friday afternoon in the wake of a departing fall storm system, becoming more northerly into Friday evening. Accordingly, a Gale Watch has been issued for the Illinois and northwest Indiana nearshore waters from 1 PM Friday through 1 AM Saturday. Increasing lake induced instability will become supportive of the development of a band of lake effect showers over Lake Michigan Friday afternoon and evening. Waterspouts also cannot be ruled out within the strongest showers. Petr && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL. Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for the IL and IN nearshore waters. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morningfor Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Is. IL. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for Northerly Is. IL to Michigan City IN. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago